Westpac Senior Economists and Market Strategists discuss the highlights and explore key economic and financial market forecasts published in the monthly Westpac IQ 'Market Outlook' report. Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
The outlook for Australia and the global economy (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Australia's labour market, strong demand met by supply 6:05min (Economist Ryan Wells)The consumer picture 11:45min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Global oil market dynamics and the Australian CPI 16:00min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)US inflation and the road ahead for the FOMC 21:10 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
Monetary policy and the consumer outlook (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)A reprieve for GDP: Westpac's revised 2023 and 2024 forecasts – 6:00min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Australian inflation: promising signs, but a long road ahead – 13:30min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)Employment's resilience, a critical support for activity – 19:45min (Economist Ryan Wells)Gauging the end of the US and global tightening cycles – 26:00 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
Views from offshore and the RBA outlook (Chief Economist Bill Evans)The sustainability of the labour market's historic strength 9:40min (Economist Ryan Wells)Australian consumers, a tough road ahead 16:00min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)The evolution of risks for the US economy 23:00 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
Inflation uncertainty, the path of policy and the implications for consumer spending (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)US disinflation: promising but not yet definitive 6:54 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)Australian businesses resilience 14:20min (Economist Ryan Wells)Inflation's evolving drivers and the outlook for 2023 21:21min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)
Recent data has highlighted the tension between the Australian economy's robust current momentum and the sharp deterioration expected in 2023. We would like to wish all our listeners a Merry Christmas. Market Outlook in conversation will return in February 2023.
November's key themes include:The RBA outlook: implications for the Australian economy, sentiment and markets (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Australian consumers under pressure from interest rates and inflation 7:50min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Clouds gather on the horizon for Australian businesses 13:45min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Australia's inflation outlook: a deep dive 18:20min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)FOMC Chair Powell doubles down 25:05 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
October's key themes include:The RBA outlook: implications for the Australian economy and markets (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Gauging the sensitivity of Australian households to inflation and rates 8:18min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Global oil supply and demand 16:18min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)The US interest rate cycle: beyond the peak 23:07 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
September's key themes include:The timing and implications of the 2022/23 RBA rate hike cycle (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Business conditions and the investment outlook 8:30min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Housing's spring selling season 13:50min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Commodities: the consequence of global policy tightening and uncertainty 20:00min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)The FOMC's fight against inflation and the expected hit to growth 23:45 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
August's key themes include:RBA: a contractionary stance for policy is necessary given inflation risks (Chief Economist Bill Evans)The Australian business sector: strength in activity and price setting 13:15min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Housing: the price correction is gathering momentum 21:35min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)The US economy: nonfarm payrolls' surprise strength in July and the chance of recession 27:55min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
Key themes discussed this month include:High inflation, weak sentiment and the RBA outlook (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Australia's housing correction 9:18min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Geopolitics, recession fears, commodities and inflation 15:50min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)FX fundamentals: growth prospects to take over from risk as key driver 22:04min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
The RBA's June decision and the outlook for rates (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Australia's consumer: re-opening and cost of living pressures collide 8:40min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)The outlook for business investment 15:15min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Commodity markets in flux 21:30min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)US inflation, the key risks 30:15min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke) Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes discussed this month include:The RBA rate hike cycle begins (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Australian inflation: considering the risks 10:10min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)The outlook for house prices 15:55min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Rising rates and the prospects for business investment 20:23min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)A FX market perspective on global momentum and risks 24:38min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
Key themes discussed this month include:Westpac's revised RBA view (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Budget 2022: the outlook and risks 8:15min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Australia's labour market: strength to persist 14:55min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)Household debt, serviceability and the economy 19:45min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)US recession risks 29:25min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).
Key themes discussed this month include:The Australian dollar and interest rate outlook (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Supply-chain headwinds and Australian investment 9:15min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Consumer views on housing: an update 13:20min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Commodity prices to hold at elevated levels in 2022 amid uncertainty 19:10min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)Activity and inflation: risks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine 26:28min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
Key themes discussed this month include:The year ahead for the RBA (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Westpac's 2022 outlook for the Australian economy 11:58min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Assessing the sustainability of the 2021/22 commodity price rally 17:15min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)Australian housing in 2022, lessons from history 21:40min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)The US FOMC: inflation, uncertainty and policy normalisation 26:55min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes discussed this month include:Vigorous recovery and the implications for policy (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Australian household wealth, a robust foundation for strength in consumption 11:25 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Business investment's promising pipeline 15:18 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Key commodity market dynamics for the year ahead 18:16 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)The global economy: opportunities to outweigh the risks in 2022 27:00 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes discussed this month include:The RBA's revised outlook and the implications for interest rates (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Australian inflation: assessing its persistence and the risks 15:15 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)A view of Australia's re-opening from Westpac's Card Tracker 20:35 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)The three key drivers of Australian business investment into 2022 24:50 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Global inflation: pro-active markets and the response of central banks 30:55 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes discussed this month include:Inflation expectations, real rates, macroprudential policy and the AUD (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Lockdowns and re-opening: evidence from the Card Tracker 9:18 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Assessing the health of Australian manufacturers 13:21 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Global energy uncertainty: demand, supply and regulatory change 17:44 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)The US labour market and inflation: justifying a November taper 24:10 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes discussed this month include:The heavy cost of lockdowns and the promise of recovery (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Global context for Australia's re-opening 9:26 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)The efficacy of fiscal policy for households and business 16:53 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Full employment still in view despite Q3's short, sharp shock 20:38 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)COVID-19, financial turmoil and China's property market 24:46 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes discussed this month include:Delta, the immediate economic cost, the necessary conditions for recovery, and considerations for the RBA (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Australia's lockdowns and the chance of recession in 2021 6:20 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)The sensitivity of consumer and business confidence to 2021's outbreaks 9:50 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Labour market dynamics of an Australian lockdown 15:40 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)Australia's vaccine rollout, an indicative timeline and how we compare globally 20:05 min (Economist Lochlan Halloway)Delta's spread, a global perspective on the economic and FX consequences 24:00 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes discussed this month include:Westpac's updated forecasts for the US FOMC and Australia's RBA as well as our initial economic assessment of the Sydney lockdown (chief economist Bill Evans)The impact of lockdowns through the lens of Westpac's Card Tracker 9:20 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Australia's state budgets in recovery 14:30 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)The demand and supply factors driving commodity prices' impressive strength 17:15 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)A constructive, pragmatic FOMC and the implications for the US dollar 24:15 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes discussed this month include:Westpac's revised growth view; consumer sentiment and the Melbourne lockdown; and next steps for the RBA (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Growth dynamics coming out of a pandemic 8:35 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)The implications for employment of JobSeeker's end 12:25 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)Gauging the strength of housing construction's upcycle 16:30 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)US inflation, its drivers, persistence, and the implications for the FOMC 22:05 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Confidence in the pandemic recovery has continued to build over the past month. Globally this has come as a result of early success in the roll out of vaccines and, particularly in the US, the benefit of never before seen stimulus. In Australia, Q4 GDP highlighted Australia's exceptional performance in the recovery to date; indeed, Westpac now believes the pre-pandemic level of GDP will be regained by March 2021. That said, in Australia and across the world, there remains a need for highly-accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future in pursuit of full employment, wages growth and consequently at target inflation. Amongst the team, key themes discussed this month include:Forecast updates and the implications for policy (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Wages, the underlying trend and outlook 9:00 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)Housing affordability: actual and perceived 14:50 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Business investment, promising prospects for 2021 19:40 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)The US' consumer fuelled recovery and China's investment-driven future 22:30 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)Read the full report >Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Key themes for discussion this month include:Westpac Economics' forecasts: a new-year review (Chief Economist Bill Evans)The mood of business and the prospects for investment 8:20 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Risks for the Australian labour market as fiscal support is withdrawn 12:20 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)The housing market: the distribution of price gains and the outlook for construction 16:00 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)The US economy in 2021: strong tailwinds to drive rapid recovery 20:35 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke).Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
All these themes and more is discussed in this month's Market Outlook in Conversation.RBA policy stance and outlook (Chief Economist Bill Evans)Business confidence and capacity 10:10 min (Senior Economist Andrew Hanlan)Deferred loans and the housing market 13:50 min (Senior Economist Matthew Hassan)Q3 CPI review and outlook 17:40 min (Senior Economist Justin Smirk)US election: implications for the US economy and FX markets 21:20 min (Senior Economist Elliot Clarke)
Westpac Economists discuss improving growth outlook and implications for markets. Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Read the accompanying Market Outlook August 2020 report
Here is Bill Evan's accompanying presentation. You can also find the full Market Outlook July 2020 report in Westpac IQ.
Westpac Market Outlook June 2020 Report
Since we spoke last, COVID-19 has continued to spread across the globe, more so in the US than Europe, and also in emerging markets. In stark contrast stands Australia and New Zealand. What has been consistent across all jurisdictions is the economic cost which looks set to see global GDP fall 3.0 per cent this year. Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
Senior Economist Elliot Clarke talks to Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans and Robert Rennie, Head of Financial Market Strategy, on the economic and market impact of the COVID-19 virus on Australia. Any information provided in this podcast is general in nature and has been prepared without taking into account any personal circumstances.
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