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We are now recording an audio version of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube, which you can listen to by clicking the play button above.We continue our SoH (Strait of Hormuz) Crisis Takeaways series with a check-in on our Obliterating Peak Oil Demand theme that rejects the idea that anyone can know today what decade let alone year oil demand will ultimately peak and subsequently plateau or decline. We have yet to see a scenario from major agencies, banks, or consultants that solves for everyone on Earth some day becoming energy rich, which, in our view, is the ultimate direction of travel. The massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth points to growth in all current major energy sources and technologies. Energy's natural hierarchy of needs points to a high motivation by especially billion-person-scale developing countries to crack the code on new energy technologies. How is there still any doubt that we will of course need rising amounts of both traditional and new energy sources and technologies for many, many decades to come?There is some thought among energy observers that the SoH Crisis will accelerate the timing of “peak oil demand.” It is a view we reject. Even under our base-case of a messy stalemate between the U.S. and Iran and volatile oil flows out of the Strait, we are highly skeptical we could see the kind of sustained, large-scale substitution out of refined oil products into alternatives that would result in even a plateauing of global oil demand at global GDP rates of 2.7% or higher. In fact, growth in EVs (electric vehicles) and LNG (liquefied natural gas) trucks is likely helping economic resiliency in countries like China and others in southeast Asia during a time of SoH-driven stress and therefore keeping global GDP at better levels than might otherwise be the case. The ultimate driver of all forms of energy, including crude oil, is GDP growth. The biggest risk from the SoH Crisis was (or maybe still is) a deep global recession that would hit demand for oil and other energy sources in the short run.The combination of the April 7 ceasefire and June 17 MOU—as imperfect as both agreements have been—significantly reduced worst-case “$200 oil / global recession” risks. There is also plenty of evidence that neither side is looking for the kind of prolonged full-scale ground war that could drive a more substantial and ongoing disruption of oil supplies out of the region. As such, we are skeptical the duration of the crisis has been anywhere near long enough to accelerate more meaningful behavioral change, even when measured over a longer time frame than just the next few years.As always, we keep an open mind and welcome pushback or different points of view. With that said, our confidence in this core view has only grown since we first unveiled our “Obliterating Peak Oil Demand” series three years ago (here). We use the popular Q&A format to address the main questions we receive on the failing peak oil demand thesis.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com.Question 1 (Q1): You had pushed back on the so-called “peak oil demand” view that was most prevalent during peak “energy transition-climate crisis” years of 2021-2023. Does the SoH Crisis mean “peak oil demand” is back on the table?Answer (A): No.We continue to push back hard on the idea that anyone today can model with any certainty when oil demand will peak, plateau, or possibly decline when the unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth are as massive as they are. That has been and remains a core ethos of ours. There are no major external forecasters that we are aware of that have modeled full global prosperity—i.e., everyone on Earth enjoying the basic human right of being energy rich.Q2: Isn't there growing evidence that peak oil demand is at least on the horizon even if you don't think it is imminent?A: No, there isn't. In fact just the opposite. There is more evidence that it is nowhere in sight.At a big picture level, we disaggregate growth in oil demand into two component pieces: (1) global GDP growth; and (2) an “efficiency gain” metric that is the change in the number of barrels it takes to generate a $ of GDP (Exhibit 1). Incorporated into our efficiency gain metric are all the things that would improve the multiplier of GDP to oil demand, including substitute products like EVs and LNG trucks as well as fuel economy gains. It's all captured in that one metric.Our key conclusion is that every year we use slightly fewer barrels to generate a $ of GDP, but that the rate of improvement is well short of what is needed to even flatten global oil demand. The common mistake of every “peak oil demand” forecast we have seen, in particular those from the IEA and leading major oil companies, is a massive over-estimation of future efficiency gains. Typically, too quick of a ramp in EVs and other substitute products is compounded by an assumption that despite fuel economy targets having been missed by 75%-95% historically, they will be achieved at something approaching a 100% success ratio going forward. It has honestly been ridiculous how willing otherwise smart analysts have been to over model and at times double count those two impacts in particular.Exhibit 1: Oil demand derivationSource: Goldman Sachs Research, IEA, OPEC, Veriten.Q3: What is the risk to oil demand?A: It would be extended recession-like global GDP.Global GDP hasn't exactly been booming over the past several years, but at 2.7%-2.8% it has been good enough to drive around a 1 million b/d per year oil demand growth reality. Our number one concern when it comes to oil demand is always the health of the global economy. It is why we did not celebrate (from the perspective of traditional energy companies) the upside risk of $150-$200/bbl as you saw from the perma bulls. The reason being that the kind of oil price needed to motivate a global recession is hardly a bullish outcome for traditional energy companies.Q4: Aren't rising EV sales a risk to future oil demand?A: We disagree with the ICE (internal combustion engine) versus EV zero sum mindset that almost everyone has (there is common ground among the climate-is-the-top-priority crowd and oil sector enthusiasts on perceiving ICE vs EV as a zero sum game).There is no chance that especially the billion-person scale economies like China and India are going to want to subject themselves to the magnitude of oil imports that would come from achieving rich-world economic status but only with traditional energy products. We already know this from observing China and fully expect India to diversify its energy sources and technologies in order to ultimately limit oil imports relative to a scenario where alternatives did not exist. We have long championed the benefits of energy source and technology diversification as good for all forms of energy. As noted above, we believe global recession is the biggest risk to oil demand.In the case of the SoH Crisis, we believe new technologies like EVs, LNG trucks, and the ability to work-from-home via Zoom and related products has added critical flexibility to offsetting a major supply loss as has occurred with the SoH closure. To be sure, that flexibility alone did not remove the worst-case scenario of oil needing to spike to $150-$200/bbl in order to force global recession, but it certainly was part of a series of mitigations along with the material SPR and commercial inventory reductions and pipeline redirections.Let us repeat this to ensure the point is made: growth in new technologies like EVs, LNG trucks, and Zoom has been positive for oil demand in that it has been a contributing factor to ensuring ongoing global economic growth.Q5: Won't the SoH Crisis drive an even faster shift to non-ICE vehicles?A: Yes, we are bullish on global EV sales, especially in large parts of Asia.New vehicle sales are as good of an indication of healthy economic growth as any. If EV sales are growing rapidly, this is good for economic activity and hence oil demand.Q6: But those EV sales represent miles driven that won't be using gasoline?A: Correct. But they will also represent economic activity that perhaps wouldn't be occurring helping support other oil products.We would guard against analyses that show “oil demand avoided based on EV sales to date” we see being published by the IEA and others. Like the issues we see with peak oil demand in general as well as the on again-off again “oil glut” calls, these single-variable extrapolations do not tell the full story for oil demand. The fact is that you don't see the impact in our efficiency gain metric.To be sure, we agree that the outlook for gasoline is weaker than for other products like diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks, in part driven by rising EV sales. However, the existing ICE car park is massive and is expected to grow at a modest clip in the coming decades as highlighted in OPEC's most recent World Oil Outlook 2026 report (link).Looking at Exhibit 2, it is not obvious to us that gasoline demand will globally decline in the coming decades—a view that even many in the oil sector broadly accept. It also highlights how massive the existing stock of ICE vehicles are; the curve slopes slightly up and shows no signs of bending down.Exhibit 2: ICE car park rises slowly, while EV car park rises much faster of a small baseSource: OPEC World Oil Outlook 2026 report.Q7: Robotaxis and autonomous driving: An EV accelerant?A: Yes, quite possibly.The automotive and technology aspiration of autonomous mobility continues to make significant strides. We are optimistic on the progress to date and have high expectations that robotaxis and other forms of autonomous mobility are a present day opportunity, with the technology likely to grow significantly in the years ahead. While notionally an ICE vehicle should have as much of an opportunity to be autonomous as an EV, it is our understanding at this admittedly early stage of development that EVs will secure a more meaningful share of autonomous miles driven. This bears further analysis and an evaluation of how trends ultimately develop. The fact that EVs are inherently more “software oriented” is the reason often given for the EV preference for autonomous mobility.We will repeat the perspective we have maintained throughout this post: if the rise of autonomous mobility leads to increased economic activity—even if overwhelmingly met by EVs—it will benefit overall oil demand though non-gasoline refined products would benefit to a greater degree.Q8: Diversification benefits of having both ICE and EV?A: The idea that all economic activity should be tied to the electric grid is absurd.No country should or is going to aspire to “electrify everything.” At a country level, having a mix of energy sources and technologies is likely to create the greatest resiliency in an uncertain world. Currently, most countries are over-exposed to ICE vehicles as we can see in the car park comparison in Exhibit 2. The ability to avoid odd-even license plate days is enhanced by a greater EV share. As we have now said or implied several times in this post, we expect significant growth in EV sales in the decades ahead, outpacing growth in ICE vehicles.⚡️On A Personal Note: Onto My Third TeslaSince purchasing my first Tesla on my birthday in 2015—a 2015 Model S—I have been an EV-first driver for personal travel. In 2020, we traded in the Model S for a 2020 Model 3. About a month ago, we traded in that Model 3 for a 2026 Model Y. I love driving a Tesla and prefer it over a comparably priced ICE vehicle (I have no doubt that there are high-end ICE vehicles that would be more fun to drive than any of my Teslas). A few observations:* Full Self Driving (Supervised) is awesome and a better experience than any equivalent driver assist technology I have tried from other companies. It's not a close call in my view. Tesla appears to be well ahead of the competition on this. Unfortunately, I have not had the opportunity to try any of the Chinese EVs, which I will aim to do in the future.* A Model Y or Model 3, in my view, is currently a better value than comparable ICE vehicles in similar performance or price categories. As we have been shopping to refresh our two 2020-era cars, this has been a surprise. I would note that this is true at a time that there is no federal EV tax credit.* We had been hanging onto an ICE vehicle for long-distance travel. But with my parents now ten minutes away, instead of 5-7 hours away, there is no obvious reason to not consider being an all Tesla family.* On the last long distance trip we took, we rented a (ICE) minivan from Avis. This seems like a reasonable path forward. We aren't ever going to own a minivan, but our golden doodle was actually quiet and comfortable while being driven in it.Last week we took a trip to western Pennsylvania to visit relatives. It is about 250 miles in each direction. Overall, our experience with FSD was outstanding.* FSD for long-distance travel is an absolute no brainer, game changer. It is a huge improvement over equivalent driver-assist technology from the competitors I have tried.* There are two scenarios where I had less comfort: (1) construction zones with the concrete barriers during times of busy but flowing traffic including many 18-wheelers. The Model Y on FSD did not make a mistake we noticed, but the rate of speed (it drove at the speed limit) was faster on turns with trucks in the next lane than I would have attempted; (2) I made a different decision on whether to swerve or go over a deceased small animal than what FSD picked (it wanted to swerve).* FSD was especially outstanding during slow-moving traffic congestion.* Many smaller decisions it made to me seemed very “human like,” meaning it is how I would have approached the situation.* I was especially pleased to see that it recognized a person approaching a cross walk and came to a stop so they could cross (this was in a residential area of town).Autonomous driving is unquestionably a future that is fast approaching. Is the technology perfect? Of course not. But neither are human drivers. A Tesla does not text or drink and drive as an example. And while you can question some of the choices it made, it makes none of them due to drowsiness, distraction, or other stressors.Autonomous mobility is going to be a game changer in reducing overall traffic accidents and fatalities. It is going to be a game changer for people like my parents that have had to give up driving; they are both good with technology and could easily handle a future, improved version of FSD. I think autonomous mobility will be positive for miles driven and economic activity. Even if it is overwhelmingly EV focused in passenger vehicles, it is going to be positive for GDP growth and therefore oil demand.⚖️ DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
This week's podcast is the final episode before Peter and Jackie take a summer break. The show will return to its weekly schedule in September. The episode begins with oil market news, as conflict with Iran flares up again and the Strait of Hormuz re-emerges as a critical chokepoint. Peter and Jackie discuss higher-than-expected global oil inventories at this point in the conflict, recent demand trends, and changes in China's oil imports. While longer-term shifts, including substitution and the rerouting of oil around the Strait, are easier to anticipate, the short-term outlook remains highly uncertain. Next, they recap the Calgary Stampede pipeline announcements, including the proposed West Coast oil pipeline and the earlier-stage Alberta-to-Ontario project. They also revisit frequently asked questions raised in conversations with the media and industry over the past week. Finally, they review the news of Meta's proposed $13 billion Alberta data centre project, along with the Greenlight Limited Partnership power project announced on July 2. They close by considering growing opposition to data centres, a topic Peter discussed at the Upper Bound conference in Edmonton this past May, where he participated on a panel exploring what the AI industry can learn from the energy sector. Content referenced in this podcast:Alberta's West Coast Oil Pipeline Submission to the Major Projects Office (July 2, 2026) Jackie Forrest's Globe and Mail op-ed “The Iran war, the Saudis' bold bet and why Canada needs a new pipeline” (May 6, 2026) Jackie Forrest's Globe and Mail op-ed “Finally, Canada steps up as the energy superpower the world needs it to be” (July 1, 2026) Chris Varcoe in the Calgary Herald “Meta unveils massive $13B, gigawatt-scale development in Alberta, Canada's largest data centre” (July 8, 2026) Meta's Sturgeon Data Centre information Upper Bound conference in Edmonton, recording of the conference panel on What AI can learn from the energy sector's scars that Peter Tertzakian participated in (held May 2026) A report by Data Center Watch on opposition (Q1 2026 update)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/Check us out on social media:X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research InstituteSubscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
SK Hynix's debut on the Nasdaq as an ADR makes it "different" from a usual IPO, says Kevin Hincks, who tells investors to brace for a volatile U.S. opening for the South Korean tech giant. It comes as the AI memory trade remains red-hot, seen in stocks like Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK). Kevin also touches on comments from the IEA that world oil demand will see its first annual decline since 2020. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
AP correspondent Ben Thomas reports global oil demand is dropping, but not in the U.S.
We just got a couple major updates that are connect some more dots on what is the biggest story in the global economy, all connecting to China. The oil market has undergone a radical – and I mean radical – change over the past few weeks. It first showed up last Thursday and is still going her today. Earlier this morning, Saudi Arabia comes out with a big announcement it is cutting the benchmark price of its oil for the first time since 2020. Those two together implicate Chinese oil demand and therefore its economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning PointIt isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it wrong leads to catastrophic decisions. This video will help explain what we really do here at EDU, what's behind our methodology. Why we talk about curves and signals, but, more importantly, why no one else does. And then at the end, how to use this information managing money and crafting portfolio strategies. https://youtube.com/live/We2aP56WLJ8?feature=share----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu
Today we were thrilled to welcome back Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Managing Director, Head of Oil Research at Goldman Sachs. Daan joined Goldman in 2015 and previously co-led Goldman Sachs' Global Economics team as well as the firm's Canada Economics research effort. Daan and his team recently wrote a report titled “EV Sales Acceleration Poses Downside Risk to Global Oil Demand.” We were pleased to hear Daan's perspective on the report, the acceleration in global EV adoption following the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption, the outlook for global oil demand and oil prices, and what investors should be watching across the broader energy landscape. In our conversation, we explore the key findings from Goldman Sachs' recent research on EV adoption, including how higher fuel prices and concerns around energy security may have accelerated EV sales across several major global markets following the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption. We discuss the significant differences in EV penetration rates around the world, the growing influence of Chinese manufacturers, the importance of charging and power infrastructure, and the role government policy continues to play in shaping adoption trends. We examine the outlook for global oil demand, including Goldman's view that oil demand continues to grow through 2040 despite rising EV adoption, supported by growing energy consumption and the limited availability of substitutes for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel. We discuss the recovery of Middle East oil production and exports following the conflict, OPEC supply dynamics, strategic petroleum reserves and stockpiling activity, and why oil prices did not rise as much as many expected during the Iran war disruption. We touch on investor sentiment toward energy markets, China's role as both a major EV market and a stabilizing force in global oil demand through stockpiling behavior, and tightening power markets driven by rising electricity demand from AI and data centers. We also discuss the interplay between future oil prices, power prices, and EV adoption. Finally, we cover advancements in battery technology, the long-term implications for both the energy transition and global commodity markets, and more. We greatly appreciate Daan for sharing his time and perspectives. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that market volatility is becoming more prevalent across asset classes. From a fixed income perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady at approximately 4.5%, with traders closely focused on this week's PCE Index as a key inflation indicator, particularly in light of the Federal Reserve's more hawkish tone following last week's FOMC meeting. In equities, he emphasized the increasing volatility observed in recent trading sessions, especially within Big Tech and the Nasdaq, with semiconductor and chip stocks coming under notable pressure and with several declining by more than 10%. He suggested that market leadership may be shifting, as the Nasdaq lags while the Dow Jones Industrial Average demonstrates relative resilience. Turning to commodities, WTI crude has fallen to around $73/bbl, marking its lowest level since the first week of the Iran conflict. WTI has broken below its 200-day moving average, indicating that oil appears “broken” from a technical trading perspective. He also highlighted a rapid shift in market sentiment, moving from concerns about tightening global inventories to fears that OPEC supply could increase sooner and more significantly than expected. In energy equities, he observed that the sector has declined modestly over recent trading days, with Oil Services bearing the brunt of the losses. Electric utilities have outperformed, serving as a temporary safe haven for investors. He ended by pointing out two notable headlines: first, a partnership between Chevron and Microsoft to develop a co-located power facility in West Texas that will supply electricity to a Microsoft-operated data center under a 20-year PPA; and second, the Department of Energy's announcement of $17.5 billion in financing to help incentivize/jump start utilities to order equipment for large-scale nuclear reactors. Ellen Wilkirson made her COBT debut and added her questions and perspective to the discussion as well.
- Peak Oil? Nope. Demand Keeps Growing - JLR's North American CEO Quits - Land Rover Relies on Chery For Freelander - Europe Needs to Save Its Auto Industry - Sweden Wants Changes to FSD - 7,000 Tesla Owners Join Class Action Lawsuit - Use Grok To Talk to FSD - Public Supports U.S. Military Right-To-Repair - Chery Launches Pickup Truck Division - Autoline Poll on Tariffs
- Peak Oil? Nope. Demand Keeps Growing - JLR's North American CEO Quits - Land Rover Relies on Chery For Freelander - Europe Needs to Save Its Auto Industry - Sweden Wants Changes to FSD - 7,000 Tesla Owners Join Class Action Lawsuit - Use Grok To Talk to FSD - Public Supports U.S. Military Right-To-Repair - Chery Launches Pickup Truck Division - Autoline Poll on Tariffs
Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com - Strait of Hormuz and Peak Oil (0:10) - Advancements in Solar Energy and Cold Fusion (2:17) - Impact of Oil Demand and Middle East Dependence (3:58) - Logistical Challenges and Diesel Shortages (6:25) - Preparation for Energy Shortages and Maintenance (9:51) - Nocebo Effect and Medical Fear Campaigns (20:35) - Critique of Modern Medicine and Vaccines (44:05) - Microplastics and Clothing Choices (1:00:35) - Interview with David Dubeyne on Food Shortages (1:12:47) - Impact of Fuel Shortages and Economic Implications (1:15:38) - Psychological Operations and Energy Lockdowns (1:19:47) - Plastic Shortages and Food Packaging Issues (1:21:41) - El Nino and Its Impact on Crop Production (1:26:11) - Global Water Shortages and Data Center Competition (1:31:34) - African and Middle Eastern Food Production (1:39:10) - Changes in Global Agricultural Hubs (1:41:33) - Preparation for Food Shortages and Economic Changes (1:51:16) - Historical Analogies and Economic Predictions (1:58:38) - Final Thoughts and Call to Action (1:59:53) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:
Parag Sanghani of the Westwood Holdings Group, manager of the firm's Enhanced Energy Income and Enhanced Midstream Income ETFs, says that the ongoing war in Iran has pulled volumes from inventories early, creating synthetic demand that will keep prices higher for several years. That benefits the oil companies and stocks that Sangahni likes, but it hurts by creating a tax at the gas pump, which he expects to remain in place longer than most projections. Sanghani says he currently likes the entire spectrum of energy investments, not just oil and gas, noting that power demands are expected to keep growing beyond current capacity constraints for years to come. Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, says that productivity, GDP growth and earnings are "what matters," and that the headline risks that are driving consumer sentiment are "distractions" from a market backdrop that is solid. He says inflation remains the big risk, but notes that the investor sentiment is creating opportunities, particularly in closed-end funds where they are reflected in discount trends. Plus, Stephen Lubben, a law professor at Seton Hall University, discusses his recent book, "To Protect Their Interests: The Invention and Exploitation of Corporate Bankruptcy," and how the nation's bankruptcy laws have been used in ways that don't protect the broader economy from the failure of big firms but instead protect wealthy power brokers from facing financial consequences of mistakes and misdeeds.
Shipping under fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the impact of tanker rates and the global economy, and Somali piracy making an unwelcome comeback.These are just some of the stories that are covered in the latest episode of Maritime in Minutes.Seatrade Maritime News' Marcus Hand and Gary Howard reflect on the month of April, with their highlights from the news in maritime and shipping, from the biggest stories to those that simply piqued their interest.Hear more about:Global trade and growth to slow due to Hormuz closure, warns UNCTADVLCC loadings in Yanbu soar due to Hormuz disruptionUnder fire in the Strait of Hormuz – a firsthand accountHengli Heavy Industry secures 108 newbuilding orders in Q1US blockade of Iranian ports comes into forceIEA cuts oil outlook on ‘largest disruption in history'Three container ships come under fire from Iran in HormuzGlobal maritime system becoming contested and under threat warns SingaporeIs the tide turning against US opposition to the IMO NZF?Somali piracy warning as second ship hijackedIf you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to ensure you don't miss our latest uploads. For the latest news on the shipping and maritime industries, visit www.searade-maritime.com Connect with Marcus Hand:Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/marcushand1 Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcus-hand-b00a317/Connect with Gary Howard:Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GaryLeeHoward Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/garyleehoward/Don't forget to join the conversation and let us know what topics you want us to cover in future on Twitter, Facebook or LinkedIn
L'Agence internationale de l'énergie a prévu que la guerre en Iran entraînerait une baisse inédite de la demande mondiale de pétrole en 2026 — la plus forte depuis la pandémie de Covid-19.Traduction : The International Energy Agency projected that the Iran war would trigger the steepest drop in global oil demand since the Covid-19 pandemic. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.
The International Energy Agency had warned the U.S.-Iran War oil shock will lead to supply shocks and shrinking demand. Kevin Green offers his take on whether this will lead to "demand destruction" in the oil market. He also offers his technical analysis for crude and agriculture products like soybeans. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
On Episode 847 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Vipin Malhan, President of the Noida Entrepreneurs Association as well as R. Gopalakrishnan, former executive director of Tata Sons Ltd, about a new book he has co-authored, Chanakya and Sun Tzu: A Business Lens on Trade, Thought and Travel.SHOW NOTES(00:00) Stories of the Day(00:41) A bigger worry for oil: demand destruction(02:08) Below average monsoons are projected for India(04:45) Why are workers in Noida protesting?(12:11) A new lens on India-China relationsFor more of our coverage check out thecore.inSubscribe to our NewsletterFollow us on:Twitter |Instagram |Facebook |Linkedin |Youtube
Melbourne Age letter writer questions court finding on Santos."There's a New Forecast for Peak Oil Demand. It's Increasingly Cloudy.";"‘Ball bearings in the snow': The role of climate change in deadly avalanches";"US Youth, Climate Coalition Sue to Stop Trump EPA ‘From Torching Our Kids' Future'";"Missing Profits May Be a Problem for the Green Transition";"Have China's carbon emissions peaked?";"From fossil fuelled tanks to wildfires: How Russia's war on Ukraine is destroying the planet";"Ocean Warming Drives ‘Deeply Concerning Loss of Marine Life,' Study Shows";"Prehistoric creatures flocked to different latitudes to survive climate change – the same is taking place today";"Released emails reveal heavy political lobbying as massive gas project extended";"Mass extinction: our fossil study reveals which types of species are most at risk from climate change";"Severe flooding – in central Australia? How a vast humid air mass could soak the desert";"Climate change is drying out the ‘forgotten rivers' that keep the Murray-Darling alive. We need a new plan".
Will Ulrich, Co-CEO of Presidio Petroleum (NYSE: FTW) believes we are lifetimes away from peak oil demand and underinvestment in the sector, along with the overhang of ESG mandates that are starting to disappear, mean that a repricing of the equities could be inevitable up ahead. Will also dives into how Presidio fits into the picture, with their focus on optimizing existing production and generating sustainable cash flow from low-decline, producing assets. Presidio Petroleum Website: https://bypresidio.comDisclaimer: Commodity Culture was compensated by Presidio Petroleum for producing this interview. Jesse Day is not a shareholder of Presidio Petroleum. Nothing contained in this video is to be construed as investment advice, do your own due diligence.Follow Jesse Day on X: https://x.com/jessebdayCommodity Culture on Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/CommodityCulture
Welcome to The Cashflow Project Podcast! In this episode, we sit down with Tad Fallows, co-founder and managing director of Long Angle—a private community for high-net-worth entrepreneurs and executives across 45 countries. Tad shares his journey from bootstrapping a software company during the financial crisis to building Long Angle, a platform designed to provide authentic, unsponsored access to alternative investments. We dive into strategies beyond traditional real estate and index funds, including private equity, private credit, energy, and other exclusive opportunities typically reserved for institutions. If you're looking to diversify your portfolio, expand your network, and gain insight into lesser-known asset classes, this episode delivers practical wisdom and valuable perspective—plus a rapid-fire round packed with books, lessons, and investor advice. [00:00] Sudden Wealth and Its Challenges [03:42] Alternative Investments for Wealth Growth [07:39] "Diversification for Smoother Returns" [13:00] Diversified Investing Insights [14:33] Private Credit for Medium Businesses [18:14] Alternative Investment Strategies [20:13] "Oil Royalties and Investment Risks" [25:48] Energy Trends and Political Impact [28:00] Oil Demand and Green Transition [32:10] "Long-Term Bullish on Energy Investment" [35:13] Leveraging Connections for Success [39:24] "Lessons from Real Estate Management" [40:37] "Profiting Despite Real Estate Mistakes" [43:52] "Take Action, Level Up" Connect with Tad Fallows! Website LinkedIn Connect with Marc Adams! Website Website 2 LinkedIn
US President Trump has recently embarrassed himself by taking over Venezuela for their decaying oil industry that nobody wanted. Oil and gas executives have many reasons to feel Venezuela is “un-investible” as recently stated by an Exxon executive. Bill welcomes back Markham Hislop of Energi Media to explain the various economic and political challenges, as well as the utter incompetence, of Trump's oil-driven expansionist “plans” in Venezuela, and how it could affect Canada's oil industry and economic decision-making.Tune into Episode 344 of The Bill Kelly Podcast for conversations in critical times.This politics news podcast interview was recorded on January 13, 2026.Don't forget to like, share, comment and subscribe to support Bill's work. THANK YOU!Subscribe to Markham Hislop's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergiMediaBecome a podcast member for weekly public and private livestreams, and to hear Bill's stories and life lessons from 50+ years as a broadcast journalist in his members-only series, THE WAY I SEE IT: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCeUbzckOLocFzNeY1D72iCA/joinListen to The Bill Kelly Podcast everywhere: https://kite.link/the-bill-kelly-podcastYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBillKellyPodcast/featuredBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/billkellypodcast.bsky.socialSubStack: billkelly.substack.com/CHAPTERS05:52 Venezuela's Oil Industry and U.S. Interests08:50 Challenges of Investing in Venezuela12:12 Trump's Lack of Awareness and Planning15:08 Economic Viability of Venezuelan Oil28:22 The Future of Oil Demand and Industry Perspectives33:15 China's Strategic Oil Supply Management39:09 The Alberta Oil Industry's Current State43:25 Canada's Energy Strategy and Market Competitiveness51:24 Decarbonization vs. Electrification Strategies*Comment ‘likes' on behalf of this channel are an acknowledgment of your comment, not necessarily an endorsement of its contents. Thanks for joining these critical discussions in critical times!WATCH THIS EPISODE and subscribe to our channel: Trump is HUMILIATED! Exxon Says Venezuela is "Un-Investible", So Americans Must Pay BILLIONS! https://youtu.be/aR96CU252K8MORE RESOURCESExxon says Venezuela is “Un-Investible.” Here's Whyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xwocCtzC0sTrump's Obsession with Venezuela Oil Has HUGE Repercussions For Canada's Economy | Politics Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73Rg9COkVhE This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit billkelly.substack.com/subscribe
- Minneapolis Incident and Civil War Implications (0:11) - Interview with Clay Clark and New Battery Technology (36:18) - AT&T Blacklisting Brighteon and New Gold-Backed Stable Coin (37:15) - Tim Walz's Response and Potential Civil War (46:20) - Brighteon's Impact and Future Plans (46:40) - Breakthrough Battery Technology: Implications and Potential (1:04:38) - Impact of Electric Vehicles on Oil Demand (1:20:11) - Geopolitical Impacts of Reduced Oil Demand (1:25:48) - Energy Shift and Solar Power (1:26:14) - Challenges of Scaling Solar Energy (1:32:56) - Decentralization and AI Technology (1:33:55) - Elon Musk's Vision for 2026 (1:35:07) - Universal Basic Income and AI (1:39:03) - AI and Robotics (1:44:31) - Immortality and Transhumanism (1:47:57) - Gold and Silver Market Predictions (1:50:30) For more updates, visit: http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport NaturalNews videos would not be possible without you, as always we remain passionately dedicated to our mission of educating people all over the world on the subject of natural healing remedies and personal liberty (food freedom, medical freedom, the freedom of speech, etc.). Together, we're helping create a better world, with more honest food labeling, reduced chemical contamination, the avoidance of toxic heavy metals and vastly increased scientific transparency. ▶️ Every dollar you spend at the Health Ranger Store goes toward helping us achieve important science and content goals for humanity: https://www.healthrangerstore.com/ ▶️ Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html ▶️ Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/hrreport ▶️ Join Our Social Network: https://brighteon.social/@HealthRanger ▶️ Check In Stock Products at: https://PrepWithMike.com
Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy, continuing our tradition of kicking off the year with his perspectives. Rob has joined us on COBT six times in our history and has earned the honor of holding the lead-off spot in 2022, 2024, 2025, and now 2026. He is a long-time energy analyst and provides unique, thought-provoking, and economic-driven insights into energy research and technologies. Rob launched Thunder Said in 2019 and previously served at Sanford C. Bernstein and Partners Capital. Based in Estonia, he brings a valuable global lens to the energy landscape. One of Veriten's highlights from 2025 was having Rob join the firm as a Senior Advisor. We were delighted to visit with Rob to reflect on 2025 and explore what the future might hold for energy in 2026. In our conversation, Rob reflects on the shift in the dominant energy-market narrative from net zero and the energy transition (2021 – 2023), to geopolitical security post Russia-Ukraine, and now overwhelmingly toward AI and power demand. We discuss the outlook for sharply higher global defense spending by 2030 and its potential benefits to infrastructure, industry, AI, smart grids, and competitiveness. Rob outlines a broader recalibration of energy “truths” entering 2026 including solar growth potentially flattening, EV growth slowing or declining, the LNG glut narrative being questioned, and oil demand continuing to grow at roughly ~+1 MMbbl/d per year. Rob shares his outlook on global LNG, highlighting a wave of new supply that is frequently delayed, Russian LNG logistics constraints, Australia's domestic market interventions, and how policy changes in the U.S. and China are contributing to slower EV sales. We explore whether rising marginal coal mining costs in China could translate into higher Chinese power prices, China's energy strategy and diversification, and the copper outlook, including potential demand headwinds if solar and EV growth slows in 2026, alongside the importance of “primary analysis.” Rob highlights why flexible grids and better utilization are the biggest levers to reducing power system costs and explains his rationale for a more cautious U.S. shale outlook, remarking that oil markets are now influenced less by OPEC policy and more by U.S. foreign policy pressure. We closed by asking Rob for his biggest wildcard for 2026, which he identified as a collapse/fracturing of Russia as a state, with major implications for resource markets and control of assets. It was an insightful discussion and we can't thank Rob enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti both joined from the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference in Miami. Mike opened by emphasizing that two of the major market themes in 2025 were AI/data center and electricity demand growth. He noted that most investors still believe these two themes will continue to resonate in 2026, and will probably need to, especially at current valuations. On the energy commodity front, WTI oil price is up ~2% so far this year, while U.S. natural gas price is down ~8% on a warmer weather outlook. Across broader equities, the S&P 500 is up ~1% this year while the DJIA is up ~2%. The best performing sectors so far this year have been energy, financial, industrial, and materials, while the underperformers have been technology and telecom. On the energy equity front, he noted that last weekend's events in Venezuela have lifted (materially in some cases) shares of U.S. oil majors, large-cap international oil services and Gulf Coast refiners, while E&Ps have been the underperformers. The wide divergence in energy equity performance this week is mostly due to optimism of an infrastructure/oil services/oil production revival in Venezuela which may be premature. He added that hedge funds could be a culprit for these outsized moves mostly because they weren't positi
4:20 pm: Dean Clancy, Senior Health Policy Fellow at Americans for Prosperity, joins Rod and Greg to discuss his piece in the Washington Examiner about how President Trump has put Democrats on the spot with his new Health Savings Account plan.4:38 pm: Chris Jacobs, Founder and CEO of the Juniper Research Group and a contributor to The Federalist, joins the show to discuss his piece about how the middle class can't keep up with inflation.6:05 pm: Kevin Killough, Energy Reporter for Just the News, joins the program for a conversation about how the International Energy Agency has listened to U.S. threats to stop funding the agency and is no longer basing its forecasts of future oil demand on net-zero emissions scenarios.6:38 pm: Sean Mahoney, Executive Director of the Space Frontier Foundation, joins Rod and Greg for a conversation about today's confirmation hearing for Jason Isaacman, President Trump's nominee to lead NASA.
Lars Barstad is the CEO of Frontline. The biggest listed tanker company in the world. Tune in for a masterclass in shipping and commodities, and leave a comment under the video if you find it interesting! Are you bull or bear on the tanker market heading into 2026? The episode is also available on YouTube. 00:00 - Intro02:30 - Peak Oil When?07:10 - Too Much Oil In The Market Now?09:40 - OPEC Decisions (Market Share Vs Price)15:20 - Geopolitics (Black Sea, Middle East)21:47 - Frontline Investment Case37:10 - Price Taker VS Price Maker In Shipping44:20 - Bull And Bear Case For Tankers 202656:40 - Leadership, Culture And Mindset1:03:15 - AI In Shipping1:06:30 - How To Build A Career?1:10:50 - Read FT, And Book Recommendations1:12:55 - Final ReflectionsChristopher Vonheim is a Norwegian host focused on business, ocean industries, investing, and start-ups. I hope you enjoy this tailor made content, and help us make this channel the best way to consume ideas, models, and stories that can help fuel the next entrepreneurs, leaders and top performers.Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by Christopher Vonheim or his guests on this podcast are only their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Vonheim. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Christopher Vonheim as a specific reason to invest or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
In the wake of APPEC 2025, China's evolving oil demand and the impact on global shipping markets are in the spotlight. With China's oil consumption slowing and India's robust demand outlook, the intricate balance of these factors has major implications for global energy supply chains. Asia energy editor Sambit Mohanty sits down with head of China content Alice Niu and head of Asia shipping and freight pricing Pradeep Rajan. The team discusses how geopolitical tensions and strategic stockpiling are reshaping trade dynamics in Asia.
Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how record-breaking global energy demand and Texas's energy dominance are reshaping markets amid the AI revolution and shifting geopolitical dynamics. With the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projecting consecutive oil demand records of 103.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.9 million barrels per day in 2026, Texas has emerged as the undisputed energy powerhouse, now producing 42% of US oil and 30% of US natural gas while generating $27.3 billion in state tax revenue and supporting over 1.3 million jobs.The Permian Basin continues to demonstrate remarkable productivity gains, delivering 20% more output using 40% fewer rigs compared to 2018-2019 levels through advanced data analytics and re-fracking technologies. This efficiency revolution has enabled Texas to account for 80% of US oil growth year-to-date while natural gas demand reaches record highs of 148.7 trillion cubic feet globally. Despite economic headwinds including record $18.4 trillion household debt and softening labor indicators, energy markets continue to show resilience with diesel demand up 4% and jet fuel climbing 5% year-over-year, reflecting continued industrial activity and travel recovery.Natural gas is rapidly becoming the critical infrastructure powering AI data centers and the digital economy, with hyperscalers increasingly turning to co-located natural gas generation for reliable 24/7 electricity. As geopolitical tensions create new energy partnerships between Russia and China through proposed pipelines capable of 5 billion cubic feet per day, and Europe relies on up to 75% of Texas LNG exports during peak periods, traditional energy resources prove foundational not just to current economic prosperity but to the future of automation, artificial intelligence, and global technological advancement.Episode Chapters0:00 Weakening U.S. Dollar & Interest Rates2:21 Growing Household Debt4:20 Emerging Markets & Supply Chains5:27 Growing Natural Gas Demand12:49 Growing Global Oil Demand16:51 Potential Weakening U.S. Economy18:33 Global Oil Supply21:27 China24:49 Europe29:55 Permian Basin 32:58 ADS Business Conditions Index34:33 Tech's Impact on Oil & Natural Gas Industry36:03 Texas Oil & Natural Gas Industry's Economic Impact 37:52 Next QuarterRecorded on Thursday, September 4, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
After a summer break, Peter and Jackie are back with their weekly podcast. This week, they catch up on the events and news headlines from the summer, including: Geoeconomics – recap examples where countries use economic tools to influence foreign affairs – as well as more moves towards state capitalism by the United States, where the government exercises more control over institutions and companies. Canadian oil patch M&A news. Updates regarding the federal government's Bill C-5 and its plans for advancing nation-building projects. Tariff negotiation tactics, including news that Canada is removing countervailing tariffs on the United States. The United States is exerting more influence over the International Energy Agency (IEA), with the organization planning to reintroduce the Current Policies Scenario in the next World Energy Outlook to be released in the fall of 2025. Content referenced in this podcast: CTV, “Hodgeson ‘hopeful' first batch of major projects announcements to start in the fall” (August 20, 2025) Calgary Herald, “Varcoe: Carney has opened the door to Canadian LNG exports — one closed by Trudeau government, says Liberal natural resources minister” (August 27, 2025) The Vassy Kapelos Show, “I know there are buyers: Federal Energy Minister bullish on LNG as a nation-building project” (August 12, 2025) Oilprice.com, “Republicans Move to Cut U.S. Funding for the IEA” (July 24, 2025) E&ENEWS by Politico, “Trump team pushes for ouster of top IEA official” (August 7, 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Last week we published a written post that took a fresh look at a long standing theme of ours “obliterating peak oil demand” (here). We dug into OPEC Research's most recent World Oil Outlook report (here) to compare OPEC's more optimistic view of long-term oil demand to more bearish forecasts from the IEA and frankly many other leading energy voices. Our own outlook is closely aligned with OPEC's in recognizing the massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth. The idea that anyone can know today that oil demand is going to permanently peak within the next decade is something we push back hard on. That post has sparked a number of questions, five of which we will aim to address today.Our On A Personal Note this week remembers heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne, who passed away on July 21. I was fortunate to catch a Black Sabbath reunion tour in 2016.
This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter start by talking about Jackie's recent op-ed in the Globe and Mail, titled “Yes, absolutely – Canada needs more oil and gas pipelines to our coasts,” also available on the ARC Energy Research Institute website. Next, Peter and Jackie review the fundamentals of oil prices, the muted effect of the 12-day Iran-Israel war, and why oil prices have been creeping up despite weaker short-term fundamentals. Peter argues that the growing importance of “geoeconomics” - where countries use economic tools to influence foreign affairs - means that predicting oil prices will no longer be just about counting barrels. In the future, one of the most significant factors shaping oil markets will be the geoeconomic strategies of nations, including actions such as sanctions, tariffs, and withholding supply. Finally, Jackie and Peter discuss President Trump's recent letters to numerous countries threatening higher tariffs effective August 1st, including a letter to Canada with 35% tariffs on Canadian goods. Washington also introduced global copper tariffs. This is the last podcast before a break; the podcast will resume at the end of summer. Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Biofuel Blockbuster4:06 Middle East and Crude5:59 US Weather and Market Impact9:40 The Funds10:31 Brazil Corn Harvest
In this episode of the Energy News Beat Daily Standup, the host, Stuart Turley covers a range of critical energy topics. He discusses how Republicans were drawn into a deal that keeps the IRA subsidies in place and the need for urgent reforms. Stuart also critiques the Wall Street Journal's shift towards promoting clean energy, highlighting the financial and political motives behind it. Additionally, he explores EOG's international expansion, the revision of historical oil demand data by the IEA, and the paradox of rising U.S. hydropower generation amid the removal of dams. Finally, Stuart calls out the management failures in California's water and energy policies.Highlights of the Podcast 00:00 - Intro02:51 - How Republicans got roped into a deal that keeps the IRA—and why there's still time to fix it05:47 - WSJ Goes Fully In The Tank For ‘Clean' Energy09:11 - EOG Goes Abroad, and So Does American Power13:01 - IEA revised historical oil demand data, can we trust the numbers? Is this price manipulation?15:11 - U.S. hydropower generation expected to rise by 7% in 2025 following last year's record low – Then why are so many dams being removed?16:52 - OutroPlease see the links below or articles that we discuss in the podcast.How Republicans got roped into a deal that keeps the IRA—and why there's still time to fix itWSJ Goes Fully In The Tank For ‘Clean' EnergyEOG Goes Abroad, and So Does American PowerIEA revised historical oil demand data, can we trust the numbers? Is this price manipulation?U.S. hydropower generation expected to rise by 7% in 2025 following last year's record low – Then why are so many dams being removed?Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and TwitterFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterENB Top NewsEnergy DashboardENB PodcastENB SubstackENB Trading DeskOil & Gas Investing– Get in Contact With The Show –
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day.
Today we are focused on China and its oil market. How has their oil sector developed over the last 50 years? Who are the teapot refiners? And how is the market now structured in the wake of COVID, sanctions and the EV revolution? How consequential is China now to global crude pricing and market dynamics? Our guest is Tom Reed, Vice President of China Crude at Argus Media, the independent price reporting agency. Tom has spent a career watching China, understanding the details from this very opaque but consequential market.
Out today: Nat Bullard's 200-page slide deck with data from across the energy transition. Nat is the former chief content officer at BloombergNEF and current co-founder at data insights company Halcyon. In part one of their two-part conversation, Shayle cherry-picked the most interesting slides and sat down with Nat to unpack them. They cover topics like: Accidental solar geoengineering and the state of aerosols The United States' record-setting fossil fuels exports Whether Chinese oil demand is peaking Conflicting indicators for the state of ESG investing Whether you can have too many carbon removal startups Recommended resources Catalyst: Putting a halt to geoengineering — by accident Catalyst: 2024 trends: batteries, transferable tax credits, and the cost of capital Catalyst: 2023 trends: biomass, ESG, batteries and more Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate and energy leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.
We could see a huge increase in oil demand in 2025! With oil trading under $70 a barrel, gas prices have continued to fall. But unless the world starts producing more oil in 2025, we could see a big reversal in the price of oil. I base that on an estimate from the International Energy Agency as they expect a huge increase in the demand of oil. They are estimating oil consumption of 1.1 million barrels per day, which would be a 31% increase from the 840,000 barrels in 2024. I know from recent reports that there is concern that if we pump more oil, the price could drop dramatically causing difficulties and lower profits for oil companies. However, if the International Energy Agency is correct on their 31% increase in oil demand, that could actually cause shortages at certain times throughout the year. Also, it is somewhat amazing with how long electric vehicles have been out that they still don't seem to be having at this time much of an impact. I do know that car manufacturers are having some difficulty selling their inventory of electric vehicles. I believe part of this is because of the abundance of oil on the market and low gas prices. Is it possible that we got too aggressive trying to build and force consumers into electric vehicles? What happens if in 2025 the federal tax incentives for electric vehicles go away? Understanding compounding is why you should be cautious about the overvalued market! Investing is great when everything is going up and the emotions tell you to stay the course because that will continue to happen. For two years now the S&P 500 has posted really strong gains because of a heavy concentration in the Mag Seven. There are now investors who say the market could be up another 20% in 2025. In our portfolio we will continue to remain cautious next year as we understand that compounding can work for you, but also against you. What do we mean by that? Let's say that for three years the S&P 500 is up 20% per year, your $100,000 investment would grow to $172,800 because of compounding. You probably would feel pretty good about that and think it will to continue to increase. While it is possible it's like riding a roller coaster. What I mean by that is if you've ridden a roller coaster you know as it gets to the very top, it slows down and it feels like it's almost going to stop, then you go over that peak and you hit that big decline. That happened in 1935 and 1936 as big gains were followed by a 39% decline in 1937. I did not want to use 2002 when the S&P 500 had lost almost 50% of its value. I thought I would use something else from history that was not the worst-case scenario. Back to the three-years of 20% gains and a portfolio value of $172,800. If we saw a 39% loss again like 1937, your account value will drop all the way down to $108,864. You might be questioning how can that be? It's because as your account grew in value the percent decline is now on a bigger amount than the initial $100,000 you started with. So in other words after four years of investing, you're $100,000 investment was only up 8.9%. This is why for long-term investors I can continue to stay the course on a more conservative investment style and not try to figure out what the top is for many of these expensive companies. The other problem as well is once people lost 37% of the money on their investment, they would probably leave the stock market for years missing future gains. I can tell you many people think they know where the top is and they'll get out in time, but unfortunately many people stay at the party too long. I can tell you managing money through the tech boom and bust many people thought the party would continue in the early 2000's and they did not foresee the major declines that we saw during the tech bust. AI stocks performed well in 2024, there are problems in 2025 that could cause a reversal It is estimated that for every dollar invested on the AI infrastructure, revenue of four dollars needs to be produced. The AI leader so far has been Microsoft with their Copilot product that has a cost of $360 per user each year. At first glance that doesn't sound too bad until you realize you still have to pay for the other software at a cost of anywhere from a low of $72 to over $650 per year. At $1000 is the AI expense worth the reward? Currently, there are places where you can get AI for free, will people be willing to pay for AI when they're used to getting it at no expense? In a combined survey on using AI, 32% of respondents had used it in the previous week. This is a fast adoption rate compared to the Internet or the introduction of the PC. However, when asked what services they were using, most were using free services like open AI's ChatGPT or Google's Gemini. If people won't pay directly for AI, then the companies will have to somehow monetize it through some means of advertising. Another big question is will AI really produce results in productivity? In the last couple of years, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported labor productivity has risen at an annual rate of 2.3%, which is 3/10 of a percent higher than the historical average. To make AI valuable we would have to see labor productivity increase to at least 2.5 to 2.6%. One question on many people's mind is will AI replace a lot jobs? The answer to that question is it will replace jobs, but the hope is new jobs and opportunities will be created that we have not even thought of yet. They will likely require creativity, judgment and decision-making. I still think AI will be used and it is not going anywhere, but I worry the hype has carried many stocks to excessive valuations. 2025 may be a prove it year for AI and if we don't see progress towards monetization those AI stocks could struggle! Beware of Double and Triple Taxation At the end of the year, it is helpful to check where your income stands so any last-minute adjustments can be made. These might be Roth conversions, IRA withdrawals, capital gain harvesting, capital loss harvesting, charitable donations, or retirement contributions to name a few. Before making any adjustments though, you need to fully understand the tax consequence of the transaction. Income activity like IRA withdrawals or pensions are fairly straightforward as they are considered ordinary income on the federal and state level. Income from Social Security or long-term capital gains and qualified dividends can be a little more complicated. Of the Social Security you receive, some is taxable and some is tax free. At most, 85% of Social Security benefits is reportable as income but it can be as low as 0%. The more other income you have, the more your Social Security will be taxed. Long-term capital gains and qualified dividends are subject to a different set of tax brackets and the tax is calculated after ordinary income sources are considered. Depending on your level of income, capital gains and dividends fall into either a 0%, 15%, or 20% bracket. What this means is by making one adjustment that increases your income, you could trigger more of your Social Security to be taxed and push capital gains into a higher tax bracket, resulting in a triple taxation event. For example, Roth conversions are popular at the end of the year, especially when taxable income is in the 12% tax bracket, but this doesn't mean everyone should do it. You might be making a conversion that is taxed at 12%, but that also results in thousands of additional dollars from Social Security that were tax free to become taxable, and the income from the conversion and Social Security push capital gains that were in the 0% bracket into the 15% bracket. When added up that conversion at 12% ended up being taxed at over 37% because of the chain reaction of taxes, not including any state income taxes. In this situation it probably makes sense to find ways to reduce income instead. Year-end tax adjustments can be very helpful, but you want to make the right adjustments based on your situation. Companies Discussed: Macy's, Inc (M), Xerox Holdings Corporation (XRX), PepsiCo, Inc (PEP) & Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Joe DeLaura, a global energy strategist at Rabobank, shares insights into his career in the oil industry and discusses the current dynamics of the oil market. He highlights the static nature of oil prices, the long-term trends in oil consumption, and the impact of geopolitical factors on market stability. Joe also delves into the refinery dynamics, the natural gas market, and the future of LNG, emphasizing the importance of understanding these trends for strategic decision-making in energy investments. In this conversation, Joe DeLaura and Tony Greer discuss various aspects of the energy market, focusing on hedging strategies, the importance of power markets, and the role of nuclear energy in the transition to renewable sources. They explore the challenges faced by ERCOT and the implications of policy changes on electric vehicles and diesel demand. The discussion emphasizes the need for a diversified energy portfolio and the importance of upgrading infrastructure to meet future energy demands.
This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie discuss what they are watching for from the upcoming 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, better known as COP29. The conference will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11th to 22nd, 2024. Next, they delve into the IEA's recently released World Energy Outlook 2024. This annual report is widely read and used for discussions on the future of energy. They review some key points that caught their attention, including an outlook for abundant energy supply in the latter part of the 2020s, peak fossil fuels by 2030, electricity's growing role, and the adoption of EVs.They also consider a few new EV labels: extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs).They also introduce Peter's recent article on the proposed cap on Canada's oil and gas emissions.Content referenced in this podcast:UN Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air…please! (October 2024)UN “It's Climate Crunch Time” video about three future scenarios, including game over (October 2024)IEA World Energy Outlook 2024Peter Tertzakian' s commentary “It's time for a carbon policy time-out (November 2024)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop says the "opposite to a silver lining" on crude oil prices falling is the soft demand, suggesting a lackluster global economy. He adds China's stimulus is underdelivering, and the country doesn't "have its act together" which could be part of the backdrop behind Crude Oil's move lower. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie reflect on the six years since the podcast started. With over 250 episodes and counting, they have commented on a range of topics and events shaping the energy industry in Canada and beyond.In this episode, Peter and Jackie reflect on the podcasts and events that have stayed with them over the past six years and the topics that keep arising, including divestment and energy security. They also discuss their philosophy of interviewing guests.Special thanks to the loyal ARC Energy Ideas podcast listeners and to Beau Shiminsky at Ear Candy, our sound engineer since day one.Content referenced in this podcast:Energyphile stories on Apple (Audio only)Energyphile stories on the website (written and audio) Ear Candy StudioPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
Oil demand in India and China—the two Asian giants—was a key topic of discussion at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference. China's oil demand going forward remains a significant concern for oil-producing nations as oil consumption from Asia's largest economy is waning amid weaker-than-expected economic growth and ongoing property woes, a double whammy for diesel demand. Meanwhile, crude producers look to others, namely India to pick up the slack potentially. In this podcast, S&P Global Commodity Insights' Jonathan Nonis, associate editorial director is joined by Mriganka Jaipuriyar, head of news, APAC, and Pulkit Agarwal, head of India content to discuss the energy challenges in these two countries and their impact on oil markets for the rest of Asia. It also discusses the easing crude imports from China and its effects on the broader inter-Asia oil product market.
In this insightful episode of Wicked Energy with JG, Justin Gauthier sits down with Arjun Murti to delve into the intricacies of global oil demand and the evolving energy landscape. Arjun criticizes extreme political positions on oil and gas, advocating for a balanced approach to energy production and innovation. He sheds light on the governments stance on fracking and the broader implications of U.S. energy policies. The discussion pivots to China's "all of the above" energy strategy, highlighting their investment in coal, nuclear, natural gas, and renewables to ensure energy security. Arjun provides an analysis of China's significant influence on global oil markets and the challenges and opportunities posed by their demographic shifts. Other key topics include the economic viability of biofuels, short-term and long-term oil price forecasts, and the impact of interest rate cuts on the energy sector. The episode wraps up with insights into Veriten's strategic advisory work across the oil and gas value chain. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arjun-murti-energy-analyst/ Websites: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ Show Sponsors InflowControl InflowControl is a tech firm specializing in enhancing oil production efficiency and minimizing environmental harm through their Autonomous Inflow Control Valve (AICV®). The technology boosts profitability in mature oil fields by filtering out undesired gas and water, allowing previously overlooked zones to contribute to production. This results in both higher profitability and Lower Carbon Oil for stakeholders. For more information, visit the links below: Website: www.inflowcontrol.no LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/inflowcontrol-as/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqdgIooQhYtUBo-auUlYw-Q Mainline Ventures Mainline Ventures stands alone as the premier strategy consulting firm dedicated to the energy sector, founded by former E&P C-Suite executives. They transform deal-making from an art into a science with their Process Driven Negotiation Technique, focusing on active deals and offering services like bespoke training, deal advising, and go-to-market strategies, often on a contingency basis due to their strategy's proven effectiveness. This approach not only yields measurable, scalable results but also seamlessly integrates with your existing operations, ensuring long-term sustainability without the need for changes in your team or technology. LinkedIn Link: https://www.linkedin.com/company/mainlineventures/ Website: https://mainline-ventures.com/
For years, global oil demand has ticked up, mostly thanks to China’s voracious consumption. But real estate trouble combined with widespread electric vehicle adoption means China’s not guzzling oil like it used to. In this episode, the impact on the global oil market. Plus: A dockworker strike could put snags in holiday shopping, flight attendants dislike delays as much as you do and four states will vote on bond measures in November.
For years, global oil demand has ticked up, mostly thanks to China’s voracious consumption. But real estate trouble combined with widespread electric vehicle adoption means China’s not guzzling oil like it used to. In this episode, the impact on the global oil market. Plus: A dockworker strike could put snags in holiday shopping, flight attendants dislike delays as much as you do and four states will vote on bond measures in November.
On this week's edition of Climate News Weekly, James Lawler and Julio Friedmann discuss Exxon-Mobil's projections of flat oil demand by 2050, closing the last coal-fired power plant in the UK, disproportionate impacts of climate change in Africa, and more.Follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, and Instagram.Contact us at contact@climatenow.comVisit our website for all of our content and sources for each episode.
- Most China EVs Lose Money - Connected Cars Fall Short of Revenue Hopes - IIHS Says Lane Centering Not Safer - Ford Capri Has More Range Than VW Counterpart - BMW Trounces Mercedes, Audi in EVs - OPEC Living in Fantasyland - BYD Preps Premium SUV for European Market - Gen AI Can Catch Defects Early
- Most China EVs Lose Money - Connected Cars Fall Short of Revenue Hopes - IIHS Says Lane Centering Not Safer - Ford Capri Has More Range Than VW Counterpart - BMW Trounces Mercedes, Audi in EVs - OPEC Living in Fantasyland - BYD Preps Premium SUV for European Market - Gen AI Can Catch Defects Early
There has been lots of talk recently about the transition to electric vehicles sputtering out. Several automakers have delayed their EV programs citing reduced demand for the vehicles and lack of profitability. In the bigger picture, the auto industry as a whole is in a rough patch as rising interest rates and other factors have […]
Many CEOs claim economic strain to justify layoffs in the finance, tech, and media sectors— but it can seem as if corporations are doing better than ever. Today's Stocks & Topics: CCCC - C4 Therapeutics Inc., InvestTalk Market Madness Match Up Part: VRT - Vertiv Holdings LLC, RBLX - Roblox Corp., BLND - Blend Labs Inc., MSI - Motorola Solutions Inc., CYTK - Cytokinetics Inc., HALO - Halozyme Therapeutics Inc., FYBR - Frontier Communications Parent Inc., Are CEOs and Shareholders Taking A Greater Slice of Profits Than One Might Think, SPYI - NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF, QQQI - NEOS Nasdaq 100 High Income ETF, DOC - Healthpeak Properties Inc., Oil Demand, AVUV - Avantis U.S. Small-Cap Value ETF, SPGP - Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF, INVE.B - Investor AB Series B, Immigration Policies.Our Sponsors:* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/* Learn more at hackerone.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
While U.S. stocks shrugged off the latest inflation data, the oil markets saw cause for concern. Today's Stocks & Topics: ERF - Enerplus Corp., INVH - Invitation Homes Inc., FLIN - Franklin FTSE India ETF, DE - Deere & Co., Cliff Asness, Losses and Interests, XOM - Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM - Exxon Mobil Corp. Plus: Key Benchmark Numbers and Market Comments for: Treasury Yields, Gold, Silver, Oil and Gasoline.Our Sponsors:* Check out Rosetta Stone for a great deal at: https://www.rosettastone.com/TODAYAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Why inflation can be a big deal in retirement—especially for new retirees. Today's Stocks & Topics: UPS - United Parcel Service Inc. Cl B, LBRT - Liberty Energy Inc., The A-I Buzz Is Facing a Reality Check, Oil Demand, Financing Large Purchases, MJ - ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF, FTAIP - FTAI Aviation Ltd. 8.25% Fixed/Floating Cum Redeem Pfd. Series A, FTAIN - FTAI Aviation Ltd. Pfd. Series C, CTSH - Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy