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The Founder and CEO of King Operating Corporation Jay Young discusses the nation's emergency reserve for oil and fuel.
Experts warn that the Iran conflict is straining the global oil supply to dangerous levels. A dramatic hostage situation unfolds in a bank building in Bakersfield, California. And families who could be impacted by an expected Supreme Court decision on birthright citizenship speak out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats discusses why the restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may be slower and tighter than the market expects.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodities Strategist. Today – how fast can Middle East production return?It is Thursday, June the 4th, at 3pm in London.Every time you pull into a gas station, those prices are staring back at you. What you see at the pump is just the front end of a global system we've been watching for months: tankers, storage, insurance, and shipping lanes, all still constrained by the Strait of Hormuz. But while prices at the pump are still high, Brent has actually fallen back to around about $92 a barrel.In inflation-adjusted terms, today's Brent price is actually right at the 50th percentile of the last 20 years – suggesting that the market is assuming a clean, near-term recovery in supply. Yet the disruption continues to be extraordinary. Roughly 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude remains offline, close to half the region's pre-conflict output.We think the market may be too optimistic. Our working assumption is now that meaningful export recovery through the strait begins only in the second half of July. Even then, normal does not return with the flip of a switch.First, ships need to be willing to sail. Owners and insurers need confidence that the waterway is safe. If mines remain in traditional shipping lanes, the strait can be technically open but still operate at reduced capacity. Clearing that risk can take weeks, and potentially several months.Second, the tanker fleet is in the wrong place. When ships cannot work in the Gulf, they move elsewhere. Bringing enough empty tankers back to lift crude takes time.Third, storage is a limiting factor. Oilfields cannot restart if export tanks are full. For producers that rely heavily on seaborne exports, empty tankers are therefore essential.Last, oilfields themselves need restarting. Before the closure, around 36,000 wells were active across six Gulf producers. Roughly 10,000 of those are currently offline. After a shut-in of nearly five months, about 4,000 to 5,000 wells could face restart constraints. Reservoir pressure can decline, equipment can fail after sitting idle, and flowlines need cleaning and safety checks.All told, around 75 percent of lost supply can probably come back within four months after flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume. But the final 25 percent may take well into 2027.So why have prices not moved more? The market began this shock with buffers. Inventories were elevated, oil-on-water was high, and emergency relief releases helped. The U.S. increased seaborne net exports of crude oil and refined products from roughly 5 million barrels a day to 9 million barrels a day. At the same time, China's seaborne net oil imports fell from around 13 million barrels a day a year ago to just over 7.5 million a day over the last 30 days.But these cushions are thinning. Strategic reserve releases are scheduled to drop from about 2.5 million barrels per day in April through June to about 0.7 million in July and August. U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are already well below five-year seasonal lows. China is already on track for five consecutive months of unusually low crude buying for April through August delivery. But that starts to raise the probability that Chinese buyers return for September barrels. Buying for September typically starts mid to late June.Now, oil is trading like the disruption is nearly over. But at the same time, the physical system is telling a slower story. Prices may look calm on the screen, but the bottleneck is in tankers, storage tanks, wells, and crews.Our Brent forecasts remain $110 per barrel for the second quarter and about $100 a barrel for the third quarter. We recently raised our estimates for the fourth quarter to $95 and the first quarter of 2027 to $85 a barrel, and expect a return to $80 eventually thereafter.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Republican senators Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, and Roger Wicker initially called the deal a disaster and a surrender before reversing course. Former National Security Advisor John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, and analysts from The Atlantic and The Bulwark all weighed in on what amounts to the worst U.S. strategic defeat since the Iraq War. Robert Kagan's piece in The Atlantic argued that Trump's endgame was surrender, and that Iran is using the ceasefire to lock in Strait of Hormuz control by forcing nations including South Korea, Turkey, and India to normalize diplomatic and economic ties with Tehran. Russia and China benefit most. Iran emerges stronger militarily and economically. Hamas and Hezbollah get refunded. Israel is left isolated. And the United States loses 20% of the world's energy supply to Iranian control. SUPPORT & CONNECT WITH HAWK- Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/mdg650hawk - Hawk's Merch Store: https://hawkmerchstore.com - Connect on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@mdg650hawk7thacct - Connect on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hawkeyewhackamole - Connect on BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/mdg650hawk.bsky.social - Connect on Substack: https://mdg650hawk.substack.com - Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/hawkpodcasts - Connect on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mdg650hawk - Connect on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/mdg650hawk ALL HAWK PODCASTS INFO- Additional Content Available Here: https://www.hawkpodcasts.comhttps://www.youtube.com/@hawkpodcasts- Listen to Hawk Podcasts On Your Favorite Platform:Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3RWeJfyApple Podcasts: https://apple.co/422GDuLYouTube: https://youtube.com/@hawkpodcastsiHeartRadio: https://ihr.fm/47vVBdPPandora: https://bit.ly/48COaTB
Benoit Gervais and Stewart Glickman break down how the Iran conflict is impacting the global energy complex and why oil supply risks will drive prices higher. They discuss concerns over potential barrel losses, long-term energy premiums, and what investors should watch next in the energy sector.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Wasif Latif, Co-Founder, President & Chief Investment Officer, Sarmaya Partners, stopped by the Energy News Beat Podcast again. This time, we covered the current events on the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of the Iranian war. It does not look like they will be going away quietly into the night and will want to cause damage to the global markets, as they were caught mining the Strait this weekend. We highly recommend following Wasif on his LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wasiflatif/, and check out Sarmaya Partners https://sarmayapartners.com/1. The Return to Tangibles & Commodity Super CycleThe podcast opens with the central theme that the world is returning to tangible assets—commodities, real assets, and energy. Wasif Latif argues this is a multi-year secular trend that began in 2021, driven by inflationary pressures and geopolitical events. He believes we're in the early innings of a commodity super cycle that will last several years.2. Geopolitical Impact on Oil MarketsA major focus is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its cascading effects on global oil supply. The hosts discuss how this disruption has taken 10-20% of global oil supply offline, creating supply shocks similar to the 1970s. They explore how this affects different regions differently—the U.S. is relatively insulated (only 2% of oil comes from the Strait), while Asia faces acute challenges.3. Oil Supply & Demand ImbalanceThe podcast emphasizes that global oil demand continues to rise as developing nations grow economically, but investment in new oil exploration and production has stalled. They cite a $1-3 trillion shortfall in exploration spending needed to meet future demand. Oil prices may need to reach $100+ per barrel to justify new investment.4. U.S. Energy Independence & Refining CapacityDiscussion of America's shale revolution and recent developments like the new refinery in Brownsville, Texas (coming 2027) designed to process light sweet crude. The U.S. has increased production from 8 to 13 million barrels per day over a decade, but refining capacity remains a constraint.5. Stagflation Risk (1970s Scenario)The hosts warn of a potential stagflationary environment—where the economy stagnates while inflation remains high. They compare current inflation trends to the 1970s, noting that recent CPI and PPI data show concerning spikes. Unlike the 1970s, gas lines are unlikely due to improved energy efficiency, but widespread price increases across goods are expected.6. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) ReleasesDiscussion of coordinated global SPR releases as a stopgap measure to dampen oil prices. However, these are temporary solutions that buy time but don't provide permanent protection. The hosts note that countries like Japan, Korea, and India will likely rebuild their SPRs, creating additional future demand.7. Natural Gas as a Bridge Energy SourceNatural gas is positioned as a key transitional energy source, especially for data centers and AI infrastructure seeking low-carbon alternatives. The podcast explores how U.S. natural gas prices could converge with global prices as LNG export capacity expands, similar to how Brent and WTI oil prices have converged.8. Coal's Role in the Global Energy MixWhile Western nations have reduced coal usage, China and India continue heavy reliance on it as part of an "all-of-the-above" energy strategy. Germany's energy policy mistakes (shutting nuclear and coal, relying on Russian gas) are highlighted as a cautionary tale.9. Gold as Inflation Hedge & Currency ProtectionGold is analyzed as a beneficiary of both geopolitical tensions and sovereign debt pressures. The podcast argues that governments facing high debt levels will choose to protect bond markets over currencies, leading to currency depreciation and gold appreciation. Historical comparisons show gold's current bull market is still in early innings.10. The Yen Carry Trade & Financial Stability RiskDiscussion of Japan's bond market challenges and the "widow maker" trade. The hosts warn that if the Bank of Japan raises rates to combat inflation, it could trigger a yen appreciation that unwinds the massive yen carry trade, potentially causing a global equity market selloff.11. Silver's Dual Role: Precious & Industrial MetalSilver is highlighted as both a precious metal and critical industrial commodity for chips, solar panels, and AI infrastructure. Physical demand for silver is outpacing supply, with industrial companies now procuring directly from mining companies, suggesting the physical market will eventually drive prices higher.12. Geopolitical Negotiations & Market ImplicationsThe podcast discusses ongoing negotiations between the U.S., China, and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. President Xi's statement about wanting the strait open without tolls is seen as positive. The hosts note that equity markets are already pricing in a resolution, suggesting the war is "over" from a market perspective.Key Takeaway:The overarching narrative is that we're entering a new era where physical commodities and real assets will outperform financial assets due to geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, inflation, and sovereign debt pressures—a return to the dynamics of the 1970s, but without the gas lines.Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore personal income, S&P 500 profit and earnings growth, and world oil inventories. New data for disposable personal income shows a jump in income, most likely due to government employees returning to work. Personal outlays also increased in February and March, but what might be driving the rise in spending? On the employment front, the market continues to grow with hires increasing month to month while layoffs remain unchanged. At the same time, job openings are declining. What is causing the decline? S&P 500 earnings growth has been trending in a positive direction, with first quarter estimates reaching 27 percent. Interestingly, companies have also increased stock buybacks this year. Which company has announced $100 billion in share repurchases? Lastly, world oil inventories are falling at a record pace amid the Iran war. While the United States is less dependent on Iranian oil, which countries are most affected? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • U.S. GDP growth rate at 2.0% in Q1 • 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.37% • PCE Core CPI at 3.2% (YoY)
This week on Inside the Economy, we explore personal income, S&P 500 profit and earnings growth, and world oil inventories. New data for disposable personal income shows a jump in income, most likely due to government employees returning to work. Personal outlays also increased in February and March, but what might be driving the rise in spending? On the employment front, the market continues to grow with hires increasing month to month while layoffs remain unchanged. At the same time, job openings are declining. What is causing the decline? S&P 500 earnings growth has been trending in a positive direction, with first quarter estimates reaching 27 percent. Interestingly, companies have also increased stock buybacks this year. Which company has announced $100 billion in share repurchases? Lastly, world oil inventories are falling at a record pace amid the Iran war. While the United States is less dependent on Iranian oil, which countries are most affected? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: S. GDP growth rate at 2.0% in Q1 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.37% PCE Core CPI at 3.2% (YoY)
Donald Trump issues a five-month waiver of a 1920 law that says ships carrying cargo between U.S. ports must be American-built. Colin Grabow of the Cato Institute explains the results, as dozens of voyages now help to distribute oil and gasoline, and he argues the Jones Act is economic lunacy that should be repealed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Despite the historical energy disruption from the Iran conflict, stocks are back to record highs. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats discuss different views and fundamentals driving markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today: oil, oil inventories, and the price at the pump.It's Wednesday, May 6th, at 2pm in London.Martijn, it's great to talk to you. We remain in this very unique market where on the one hand, the energy market is severely disrupted. On the other hand, we're making new all-time highs in the stock market. And part of this debate is a creeping sense that maybe the energy market is just a lot more resilient than many people initially thought.So, let's just jump right into it. As you look at the current state of the world, the state of things, how are you seeing the energy market at the moment?Martijn Rats: There are definitely two views in the market. I would say commodity specialists, oil traders, people that trade oil and gas equities for a living, tend to focus on the size of the supply shock. And it is neither hyperbole nor disputed that the size of the supply shock is the largest in the history of the oil market. We have the statistical data to back that up. That is not a controversial statement.But at the same time, the other view in the market, generally held by your generalist investors who invest across many markets. They tend to focus on the likelihood or possibility that this supply shock might also be uniquely short. It was there all of a sudden, from one day to the next, the strait was closed. It felt a bit man-made, so to say. It was an outcome of a political decision, and that can also be undecided. And so, this is – the to-ing and fro-ing in the market is; on the one hand, this shock is very, very large. But the other hand it may also be very, very short.Now we went into this supply shock, arguably well-prepared. In the sense that during the course of like late 2024, all of 2025, and the very early part of 2026, we were telling a story of oversupply surplus. And on top of that, given the military buildup was going on in January and February, a lot of countries in the Arabian Gulf – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait – visibly put out a lot of oil at sea.So, in the oversupply of 2025, we put oil in storage in lots of places that we can't always see. But that seems very likely. Oil in the water was very, very high. So, we have been living off these buffers, and that has helped. And then, yeah, at any point in time, there were good enough reasons to assume that on a timeframe of a couple of weeks, this would largely be resolved. We would eat into these buffers, draw some inventory.And it has been hard for the market then to really capitalize the size of the supply shock and say, "Yeah, really oil prices need to spike very, very high." And in that sense, we're left with this significant supply shock, but we haven't taken out the highs that we saw in 2022, for example.Andrew Sheets: So maybe a way to think about this, right, is that if we imagined all of that oil as sitting in a big tank. We've kind of stopped a lot of the flow into the top of the tank as the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed. But oil's still able to drain out of the bottom, kind of, like normal because that tank is being drained. Those inventories have been drawn down. Maybe that's a quite a crude analogy, to forgive the pun.But how long can that last? I mean, if we think about these inventories, if we think about the speed of which they're being drawn down; and I think that's an important point that you mentioned, that these inventories were unusually high going in. But they're obviously not unlimited.Where does that stand? And I guess, you know, what is the limit of that? How long can those inventory draws last?Martijn Rats: Yeah, yeah. To say that this is the billion-dollar question would be understating it, Andrew. It's also a unusually complicated question to answer in the sense that it depends very heavily on the region, on the product that you're looking at. Jet fuel in Europe, NAFTA in Asia, you might see something sooner. But other products in other regions, you know, might take longer.We often don't really know where the operational limitations of inventories are. Globally, we see something like 8 billion barrels of oil in some form of storage. That is an enormous amount. We can't draw that down to zero because a lot of that is there for operational, like working capital type reasons. Just to facilitate the operations of the industry. Is the floor seven? Is the floor six? These things are hard to answer.Andrew Sheets: You've got to have some oil in the pipeline to make the pipeline flow…Martijn Rats: Exactly, exactly. You can't operate a refinery if you don't have at least some storage right next to it. It just doesn't work. So, these things are hard to know. But I would say that we are eating through these buffers very, very re-rapidly now. Oil on water has largely normalized and is no longer elevated.We are seeing very large inventory draws across every data point that we have on refined products. Refined products are universally drawing. On crude, the data is more patchy. But we are seeing large inventory draws now coming through in the United States. I would say – and this is partly having worked with this data for a long time and sort of developing some market feel rather than very analytical spreadsheets, so to say. But I would say that if the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume on the sort of next four to six weeks, we will get very, very tight by June, early summer.And, well, look, I mean, from there, it's simply… You know, if you then were to forecast. You know, project forward from there on. It would be getting tight by August, September. But of course, that's done under the assumption that the flow remains impaired over that period, which I would say most market participants would not assume at the moment.Andrew Sheets: And another point that comes up sometimes, at least in my conversations, is, ‘Oh, but, you know, maybe Venezuelan oil is going to be coming online.' There's more investment. The U.S. seems very focused on increasing oil output in Venezuela. You know, can that match in any sense the scale of what we've had disrupted here?Martijn Rats: No, that is a complicated issue in the sense that, you know, growing oil production takes time. It takes capital, it takes equipment, it takes a lot of people. Venezuela at the moment, produces a bit more than a million barrels a day. I'd have to say, like, relative to the size of Venezuela's production, the last two monthly data points have actually come in better than expected. But you're talking about 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day, that sort of thing. Relative to a supply shock that is 13-14 million barrels a day.The fastest ever single amount of production growth of any country in any year was 2018. U.S. shale with natural gas liquids included grew 2 million barrels a day in a single year. But yeah, even that…Andrew Sheets: So, 2 million barrels relative to 14 million barrels lost is…Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly.Andrew Sheets A drop in the bucket. Martijn Rats: And that had a huge run-up of several years of putting the infrastructure in place to do that. I mean, it…. You don't turn it on a dime either. So no, that remains difficult.Andrew Sheets: So, you know, maybe a dynamic to close with is actually another way that I think people care about the oil price, you know, besides their portfolio – which is they drive.And, you know, you had a great stat in your report that one out of every 11 barrels of oil that's produced ends up in an American car. And the U.S. is a big producer. Its inventories have been drawing down. There are clear signs that the U.S. is exporting a lot of energy, and as a result, gas prices are also going up in the U.S.So, you know, what… If you could just talk a little bit about the move in gasoline and maybe, you know, I think this could be a good segue into this idea of distillates into, kind of, parts of refined product. And how those prices can deviate or not from the barrel of oil we often talk about. And then even just more generally, kind of what is the price at the pump that people might need to think about as you head into the summer – assuming, you know, this conflict is still somewhat uncertain.Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, the United States is very interesting at the moment. In the sense that the regular discourse about the United States is that the United States is energy independent because it is a net oil producer. And at the most aggregate level, that is correct. But that doesn't mean that the United States is not connected to the rest of the world from an oil market perspective. I would say actually it's the opposite.The U.S. oil market is deeply connected to the rest of the world. It is a net exporter because there are very large imports, and there are very large exports, and it just happens so that the exports are a little bit bigger than the imports. So, it's a net exporter.But flows in both directions exist for every product – for crude, for diesel, for gasoline. So, the U.S. should be the last place to have physical disruptions because the supply is close to home. But in the end, it's so connected; that in the end, there's only one global oil price – and we all pay it, including in the United States.Now, because of the deficits at the moment, in Asia, to [an] extent in Europe, there is a very large pool on oil from the United States, and we're seeing that across the board. Crude oil exports were 4 million barrels a day, at the start of the year. They're now running sort of 5.5, even 6 million barrels a day. So, there's a lot of crude being pulled out of the United States. That is partly also the SBR release, the release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the export's very, very large.Another product where that is also happening is in gasoline. Now, the gasoline market in the United States has a degree of complexity to it in the sense that the U.S. is a big importer of gasoline in the East Coast and the West Coast, but then a big exporter from the Gulf Coast.Andrew Sheets: Hunh! Okay. Yeah.Martijn Rats: Net-net, it's an exporter, but in the East Coast and the West Coast, big, big importer. Now, in Europe, for example, we are normally long gasoline, short diesel. We export our surplus to the U.S. East Coast. But, at the moment, it's tight in Europe, so we're not exporting that much gasoline. So, imports in the United States have dropped a lot.At the same time, Asian customers, Brazilian customers, Mexican customers [are] pulling a lot of gasoline out of the Gulf Coast. And as a result, the net exports are unusually high for this time of the year. On top of that, the Strait of Hormuz issue has tightened the diesel market so much relative to the gasoline market that it is favorable for refineries to maximize their diesel output over their gasoline output.Andrew Sheets: Hmm. And these are decisions you can make in terms of how you crack that barrel in a refinery and split it up.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Within a relatively narrow window, but you can make tweaks that are significant. Now, normally, we're going into this summer driving season, refineries switch from what we call max diesel to max gasoline. At the moment, they are not doing that.Andrew Sheets: Mm.Martijn Rats: So, you have low gasoline production, and you have large net exports of gasoline. Over the last 11 weeks already, we have seen a very significant, very significant decline in gasoline inventories in the United States. And prices have risen at the pump. The nation's average is now $4.50 per barrel, as of reports this morning.The summer driving season has yet to start. That can become $4.70, $4.80. That can become $5. Above $5 is historically a point where people get, yeah, worried about demand destruction. And it has a real impact.Andrew Sheets: Well, Martijn, I think this remains such an important and interesting story. And even if, you know, it can seem sometimes like the market has moved on to other things, clearly there are a lot of other factors driving the equity market. It remains pretty historic, pretty significant, and pretty complicated. Also, something that I think, you know, affects the day-to-day spending and lives of a lot of people out there.So, Martijn, again, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
Gas prices are rising fast and the situation may be getting worse.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down a critical turning point in the global oil market as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and US inventories begin to draw down.Also covered:Why US oil stockpiles are shrinking at a dangerous paceHow close the system is to minimum operational capacityWhat happens when supply can no longer meet demandWhy oil prices may need to rise sharply to rebalance the marketThe potential for extreme outcomes if disruptions continue into summerWhat it means for gas prices, inflation, and the broader economy if supply constraints persist.
A major geopolitical shakeup is unfolding as war tensions, oil production shifts, and currency questions collide—raising one explosive question: is the global energy order starting to fracture?
John welcomes The Economist's editor-in-chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes, to discuss the economic fallout from the war in Iran, her magazine's midterm election special issue, and more. Zanny outlines the scale of the coming global oil supply shock due to the two-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz; why the U.S. stock market has remained buoyant regardless; whether Kevin Warsh will be an independent Fed chair or a toady to Donald Trump; and the prospects that Trump will succeed in interfering with the midterms. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com - Trump's False Claims and Iran's Response (0:12) - Economic Impact of Oil Supply Reduction (2:51) - Iran's Strategic Moves and Trump's Escalation (8:55) - Trump's Mental State and Military Commanders' Concerns (12:31) - Potential Political and Military Coups (18:59) - Economic and Social Implications of the Conflict (26:23) - Preparation and Self-Reliance (29:23) - The Role of Space Technology (1:12:03) - The Future of Energy and Transportation (1:21:40) - Government Policies and EV Market Disruptions (1:23:12) - Advancements in Battery Technology (1:26:24) - Interest in Off-Grid Storage Solutions (1:29:08) - Challenges with Solar System Installation and Maintenance (1:30:38) - Preparing for the End of Affordable Energy (1:32:33) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:
The US controls Venezuelan oil and has blockaded Iranian oil. The US has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. About 50% of China's oil came through this strait. The US has established a security agreement with the Indonesia. About 80% of China's oil travels through Indonesian Straits. The US has eliminated the cheap oil to China from Iran and Venezuela. The US controls the shipping lanes for about 80% of China's oil supplies. These actions weakens the BRICS. The world runs on oil. Control of the majority of the world's oil supply ensures oil is purchased with US dollars. The petrodollar insures dominance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Trump's Hormuz blockade sparks global recession warnings — and MAGA is now calling him the Anti-Christ. Tonight on The Mop-Up. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is the dumbest and most dangerous thing a sitting U.S. president has ever done. Twenty percent of the world's oil moves through that channel. Saudi Arabia is nervous. The IMF is warning of a global recession. There is no military solution — only damage control for a catastrophe Trump created, ignored every warning about, and now can't walk back without looking weak. In Texas, Republicans have found a new group to hate. Running against immigrants doesn't poll the way it used to — border crossings are at a record low — so the party consciously pivoted to Muslims. This isn't an accident. It's a strategy. The "Epic City" panic, manufactured by men like Brandon Gill and amplified by Greg Abbott, is Exhibit A in how Republican politics manufactures enemies to win primaries. Pete Hegseth's pastor wants a Christian theocracy. Doug Wilson has already built one in Idaho. And Elbridge Colby told the Vatican to fall in line behind U.S. military power. The party that claims to love Jesus has clearly never read the Sermon on the Mount. Oh, and *Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Nick Fuentes, and the specter of Jared Kushner's 666 Fifth Avenue building* have convinced a growing slice of MAGA that Donald Trump is literally the Anti-Christ. In this episode:
In this episode, we discuss how, Markets may be pricing some relief for now, but the true measure of an oil shock is how long it endures. The discussion and content provided within this podcast is intended for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate for all investors. Reliance upon information provided in a podcast is at the sole responsibility of the listener. The information included herein is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other security, strategy, product or service. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investors should speak to their financial advisors regarding the investment mix that may be right for them based on their financial situation and investment objective. Podcasts may involve discussions with non-PIMCO personnel and such content contain the current opinions of the speaker but not necessarily those of PIMCO. Other podcasts may consist of audio recording of an existing PIMCO article and such material contains the current opinions of the manager. The opinions expressed in all podcasts are subject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. For additional important information go to www.pimco.com/gbl/en/general/legal-pages/podcast-disclosures
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap Physical Insurance and Pipelines The "Toll Booth" Strait Sanctions as a Safety Valve Wealth vs. Shortages China's Strategic Resilience The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario Long-Term Energy Optionality
A sanctioned nation is building a sovereign Bitcoin treasury through a toll booth. Iran is demanding Bitcoin as payment for oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz and nobody in mainstream finance is explaining what this actually means. In today's show, Rustin breaks down the numbers that will make your jaw drop: at pre-war traffic levels, Iran's toll absorbs 62% of ALL new Bitcoin supply daily. We explain why Bitcoin and not yuan, what this means for the 52-year-old petrodollar system, and the game theory cascade that follows when one nation-state moves first.SPONSORS✅ Lednhttps://www.nmj1gs2i.com/9W598/9B9DM/?source_id=podcastSimply Bitcoin clients get 0.25% off their first loanNeed liquidity without selling your Bitcoin? Ledn has been the trusted Bitcoin-backed lending platform for 6+ years. Access your BTC's value while HODLing.
Two weeks, and the US is out of the Iran war: that’s Donald Trump’s blunt message. So why are there 50,000 US military personnel in the Middle East? Plus, sources say slain fugitive Dezi Freeman was shot more than 20 times in a dramatic shootout with police. Read more: UAE willing to join the war; Albanese to address the nation on Iran crisis Is Trump planning a ground invasion on Good Friday? Dezi Freeman looked like ‘Swiss cheese’ after police shot him 20 timesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
CNN Senior Reporter Matt Egan joins Chris and John Hancock to discuss the possible continuation or ending of the war in Iran and the impacts on the global oil markets. Egan says that the disruption of the supply chain and spike in prices is larger than what happened following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and bigger than the first or second Gulf War. He calls the Strait of Hormuz a 'choke point' in the global shipping of oil.
With the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran dragging on, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through global supply chains and Australian petrol pumps. As the Prime Minister unveils a National Fuel Security Plan to stop the panic buying, we look at why the fuel excise has been halved and what it actually means for your hip pocket. Plus, with Victoria and Tasmania introducing free public transport while other states hold out, we’re joined by political analyst Amy Remeikis to unpack the federal government's relief strategy and why some states are refusing to come to the party.
Know Your Risk Radio with Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer, Bulwark Capital Management
March 30, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the current state of the market, focusing on the impact of global events on oil and energy prices. They explore the ongoing shortages and supply chain issues, the critical role of oil in the global economy, and the political implications of military strategies.
Brent crude surges as Middle East tensions escalate, sending fresh shockwaves through global energy markets and raising concerns the real supply crunch has yet to reach Australia. In this episode of the SBS On the Money Podcast, analysis from Saul Kavonic, Head of Energy Research at MST Marquee, unpacks why this spike is sharper and faster than 2022, while Luke McMillan from Ophir Asset Management explains what it all means for the ASX after shares fell amid rising inflation fears and interest rate pressure.
For more than 40 years, Michael Rothman has made a career out of data-driven analysis of the global oil market. He has attended every meeting of OPEC since 1986. His clients are a roster of major industry players and governments. State of Tel Aviv and Beyond spoke with Rothman almost one week ago….just as the tensions over the Iranian chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz flared into a full-blown global crisis. Overnight, it seemed, everyone knew about the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island - the Iranian island about 400 miles (660 km) north of the shipping choke point controlled by Iran in the Persian Gulf. Virtually all critical infrastructure supporting the Iranian oil and gas industries are based on Kharg Island, making it a potential target for a U.S. military operation. Occupying Kharg - would be a highly complex adventure (which was discussed in our recent podcast with military analyst, Andrew Fox). Rothman, however, dismisses any talk of occupying Kharg as “fantasy.”Michael Rothman takes us through a series of slides and explains the fundamentals of the global oil market and why it is almost impossible to predict how high energy prices may go, when and for how long.This podcast is different from our usual work and will be of interest to those of you who have a business background, and a thing for numbers, graphs, economics, and uncertainty.Please note that all slides presented in this podcast are the proprietary work of Cornerstone Analytics and are reproduced in this podcast with permission from Cornerstone. These slides may not be reproduced and/or distributed without the permission of Cornerstone Analytics.Mike Rothman has researched the global energy markets for more than 40 years. He founded Cornerstone Analytics in 2009, serves as a consultant to government agencies, and has attended Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meetings since 1986.In 1984, Mike joined Merrill Lynch and became Chief Energy Strategist and Co-Head of the Global Energy Equity Team, which was ranked #1 in the Global Research Survey by Institutional Investor Magazine. Mike was responsible for formulating the company's outlooks for the petroleum and natural gas markets, which were integrated into the firm's commodity, equity, debt, strategy, economic and emerging markets research.In 2005, Mike joined ISI and built the firm's energy research platform. He was a Senior Managing Director, Head of Integrated Oil Research, and ranked #1 for Independent Energy Research by Institutional Investor Magazine.Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Agricultural and Business Economics, and a Master of Science in Applied Economics/Econometrics, both from Rutgers University.State of Tel Aviv is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.stateoftelaviv.com/subscribe
The energy crisis over the Iran war has left some countries glad they've added more renewables, while others are doubling down on fossil fuels. But first: oil prices fall on hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East, while suspicions swirl over potential insider trading on Trump administration policies.
A passenger jet collides with a fire truck at LaGuardia Airport. Two people are dead as investigators work to determine how both ended up on the same runway. Plus, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) staffing shortages stretch airport lines for hours. On Monday, the Trump administration will send U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to airports to keep travelers moving. And a U.S. deadline on Iran hits over the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is threatening strikes if the waterway isn't reopened by this evening. These stories and more highlight your Unbiased Updates for Monday, March 23, 2026.
A passenger jet collides with a fire truck at LaGuardia Airport. Two people are dead as investigators work to determine how both ended up on the same runway. Plus, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) staffing shortages stretch airport lines for hours. On Monday, the Trump administration will send U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to airports to keep travelers moving. And a U.S. deadline on Iran hits over the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is threatening strikes if the waterway isn't reopened by this evening. These stories and more highlight your Unbiased Updates for Monday, March 23, 2026.
The Strait of Hormuz is in a chokehold. The scale of this oil supply disruption has already exceeded the shocks of the 1970s. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and former senior CIA analyst, to break down what market players are getting wrong, why reopening the Strait is far harder than it looks, and what a Houthi entry into the conflict could mean for the Red Sea. In this episode: 3:04 Technical Side of Supply Disruption 6:11 IEA and Comparison to Russia-Ukraine 9:32 Alternative Routes for Oil and Gas 12:08 Russia is the Big Winner 13:13 Ground Troops Needed to Open the Strait of Hormuz 17:14 The US Domestic Picture 21:43 Will Houthis Disrupt the Red Sea? 27:52 What Market Participants Are Not Understanding 30:57 Is $200 Barrel Crude Oil Possible? 33:19 Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
AP correspondent Haya Panjwani reports on restrictions easing to help rising oil prices.
Washington's gas prices climb to third highest nationally, fueled by Middle East conflict and stricter state taxes. Petroleum analyst Matt McClain warns the situation could worsen, affecting everything from groceries to agriculture. Learn why costs are surging and no relief is in sight. https://www.clarkcountytoday.com/news/an-upward-trajectory-petroleum-expert-on-iran-conflicts-impact-on-gas-prices/ #Washington #GasPrices #OilMarket #StraitOfHormuz #MiddleEastCrisis #MattMcClain #GasBuddy #ConsumerCosts #Trade #TheCenterSquare
Oil markets swing wildly as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate. The panel breaks down tanker attacks, Iran's $200 oil threat, the strategic petroleum reserve debate, and the growing economic cost of the Iran conflict as war spending surpasses $11B in just days.
Surging oil prices following the disruption of key Middle East shipping routes are sending shockwaves through global commodity markets. At the same time, silver prices remain volatile as inventories across major exchanges tighten and physical metal continues shifting between Western and Eastern markets. Declining stockpiles and persistent premiums in Asia suggest underlying supply stress that paper markets may not fully reflect. With energy costs rising and bullion flows accelerating, investors are closely watching how these pressures could reshape the next phase of the precious metals cycle. Listen in to review inventory trends, and key market signals that could help reveal what comes next for oil, silver, and global commodity prices.
Hawk and Mr. Global discuss the Iran War and the global impact on Oil and Gas. A few more weeks of this could plunge the world into a global recession, and there is no end in sight at this point. Rumors of Iran placing mines in the Straight of Hormuz are running rampant, all governments are lying and making up false narratives to further their own political agendas and nobody can be trusted as a legitimate source of truth. A truly dystopian time we are living through right now both in the United States and also in the world. Like Iran and Israel, the United States is no longer trustworthy for information. The Trump administration has demonstrated how willing they are to lie to further Donald Trump's political agenda of remaining in power, avoiding accountability as it relates to the Esptein Files and in all likelihood staying out of prison in the long term. Follow Mr. Global Here: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MrGlobalYouTube Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/share/1FtrrU2jkZ/?mibextid=wwXIfr Substack: https://substack.com/@mrglobal?r=3el796&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=profile SUPPORT & CONNECT WITH HAWK- Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/mdg650hawk - Hawk's Merch Store: https://hawkmerchstore.com - Connect on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@mdg650hawk7thacct - Connect on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hawkeyewhackamole - Connect on BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/mdg650hawk.bsky.social - Connect on Substack: https://mdg650hawk.substack.com - Connect on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/hawkpodcasts - Connect on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mdg650hawk - Connect on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/mdg650hawk ALL HAWK PODCASTS INFO- Additional Content Available Here: https://www.hawkpodcasts.comhttps://www.youtube.com/@hawkpodcasts- Listen to Hawk Podcasts On Your Favorite Platform:Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3RWeJfyApple Podcasts: https://apple.co/422GDuLYouTube: https://youtube.com/@hawkpodcastsiHeartRadio: https://ihr.fm/47vVBdPPandora: https://bit.ly/48COaTB
Listen for the latest from Bloomberg NewsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On today’s show: A Bristol Indian restaurant goes viral for hilarious song parodies like Naan I Need and we call the star! Why Ben was dragged out of the airport when he was already there... We brainstorm alternatives to Megan's husband having to kiss other women in a musical We chat to legendary kiwi Tim Finn from Split Enz about reuniting and performing together for the first time in years! Chief economist Brad Olsen explains oil supply risks and what NZ drivers can expect How Jono witnessed the most relaxed car thief in action Instagram: @THEHITSBREAKFAST Facebook: The Hits Breakfast with Jono, Ben & MeganSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Government admits its walking a fine line between being prepared and causing panic. It's considering a raft of possible measures like car-less days, limits on petrol sales, and the introduction of fuel coupons if oil prices continue to rise. Iran's threatening to keep the critical Strait of Hormuz closed for the foreseeable future. Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking New Zealand's still in a good place right now, with a secure 50-day fuel supply. She says they're proactive in case the situation changes, further down the track. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The war with Iran is turning into what is now being described as Death Valley, not on land but at sea. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
CEOs say they won't add many jobs in 2026, signaling a fundamental shift toward a 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market. This new employment paradigm could reshape everything from consumer spending patterns to corporate profit margins as companies prioritize efficiency overgrowth.Today's Stocks & Topics: Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Market Wrap, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares (VSS), Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares (VXUS), Bonds, Adobe Inc. (ADBE), The New Labor Market Reality: Low-Hire, Low-Fire Economy Becomes the Norm, ConocoPhillips (COP), 401k Match, Credit Markets, iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW), Lincoln National Corporation (LNC), Oil Supply.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic: https://claude.ai/invest* Check out Pebl: https://hipebl.ai* Check out Progressive: https://progressive.com* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/INVESTAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Thierry Wizman thinks traders still see the U.S. market as the safest place to invest, because the U.S. is a big energy producer that doesn't rely as heavily on Middle Eastern oil. However, global inflation is expected to rise, and Asian markets are being hit hard because of their reliance on that energy. “I think we're going to have to live with this” until we get clarity around the war, he says. He adds that supply shocks “tend to be nightmares for central banks.”======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
GasBuddy's Patrick DeHaan says it's not just tensions in the Middle East Americans will need to watch when it comes to gas prices. He points to seasonal trends adding onto supply woes but calls Monday's tapering off of crude oil prices a "glimmer of hope." Adrian Helfert talks more about the timeline he expects to see in gas price volatility, which he anticipates to last for upwards of a year. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
These are very early days in the Iran war and the impact on share markets is far from clear. But already we can see there is upward pressure on interest rates around the world, there is also a clear risk of an inflation spike due to oil supply. Will Hamilton of Hamilton Wealth Partners joins Associate Editor, James Kirby in this episode. In today's show, we cover: Why the Iran war will push rates higher The bull market for global shares is now under serious pressure How AI is especially vulnerable to increased energy prices Private credit is a flash point in a volatile market See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
00:00 Intro02:51 China Halts Deployment of Military Aircraft Near Taiwan03:43 Strikes on Iran Dismantle China-Led “New Axis of Evil”07:26 Chinese Netizens Cheer for Iranians, Seek Own Freedom09:48 Expert: U.S. Strikes on Iran May Speed CCP's Downfall12:33 How Will the Iran Conflict Impact China?13:08 China's Regional Power Projection Questioned13:52 Iran Command & Control Severed by Ongoing Airstrikes15:30 China Faces Pain From Strait Disruption, Oil Price Surge17:11 China's Oil Supply at Risk Amid U.S.-Iran Pressure19:30 U.S. Pressures China as Xi Holds Fewer Economic Cards21:23 U.S., Israel Gain Air Superiority, Hit Iran Air Defenses
Hawaiʻi Chief Energy Officer Mark Glick discusses what oil supply disruptions due to the Iran war mean for Hawaiʻi; Devaki Murch and Steven George share their experiences as Vietnamese children brought to the United States for adoption as part of Operation Babylift
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader along with other senior leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In his initial statements following the attack, President Trump signaled that regime change was a potential objective. Iran responded aggressively, targeting a range of military, civilian, and energy infrastructure across nine countries at the time of recording. Energy facilities have been hit, including a refinery in Saudi Arabia and LNG export facilities in Qatar. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows and a key corridor for Qatar's LNG exports, is effectively blocked. Shipping companies and insurers are unwilling to risk moving through the narrow chokepoint amid ongoing missile and drone attacks in the region. Several tankers have also reportedly been struck. As a result, oil and natural gas prices have risen. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, even higher prices are expected. This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie are joined by Josef Schachter, President and Founder of Schachter Energy Research Services Inc. They discuss the recent events, oil prices, available spare production capacity, and inventories, and what these developments could mean for the Canadian oil and gas industry. Content referenced on this podcast:Learn more about the Schachter Energy Report and the Eye on Energy Report Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify
The panel breaks down Iran's next moves after being cornered: allies staying sidelined, retaliation risks, Strait of Hormuz threats, oil and gas price spikes, cyber warfare, and drone warfare. They argue Trump's energy strategy insulated the US while Iran's isolation grows.
The U.S. and Israel's war with Iran means a disruption of global oil markets. Iran has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving hundreds of ships sitting idle. While a slowdown of production and exports could hit China particularly hard, this conflict could also impact what U.S. consumers pay at the pump. This morning, we'll learn more, and then we'll hear how air carriers are being affected by the attack.
The U.S. and Israel's war with Iran means a disruption of global oil markets. Iran has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving hundreds of ships sitting idle. While a slowdown of production and exports could hit China particularly hard, this conflict could also impact what U.S. consumers pay at the pump. This morning, we'll learn more, and then we'll hear how air carriers are being affected by the attack.
CHINA'S OIL LOSS IN VENEZUELA Colleagues Gordon Chang and Charles Burton. The guests discuss how the US removal of Maduro disrupts China's oil supply, leaving Beijing with billions in unpaid debt. They note that Chinesemilitary equipment failed to detect the US operation, embarrassing Beijing. Burton suggests Canada faces a difficult choice between aligning with US hemispheric security or appeasing China. NUMBER 3