Podcasts about Fiscal policy

Despite uncertainty around the US government shutdown and signs of economic weakness, equities have rallied, though tech stocks paused as AI enthusiasm met valuation concerns. With non-farm payroll data delayed, investors are turning to private sector indicators for labour market insights. Meanwhile, in Japan, Sanae Takaichi's surprise win as Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader signals a potential return to expansionary “Sanaenomics”, a policy stance reminiscent of Abenomics, boosting equities and pressuring the yen. Tune in for a deep dive into the macro shifts shaping markets this week.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia, Julius Baer.

The Japanese economy was once the envy of the world. By the 1980s, it looked set to surpass the United States in size. Real estate prices were high, the stock market was booming—the entire world was asking if Japan had found a superior model of economic growth and recovery after World War II, one grounded in industrial policy.However, the bubble burst in the early 1990s, and what followed was not a quick recession and rebound as we have often seen in the U.S., but decades of stagnation. Near-zero deflation became entrenched, and the banking system turned into a drug of cheap borrowing rather than an engine for recovery, with the Bank of Japan pioneering quantitative easing by pushing interest rates to zero long before the U.S. Federal Reserve considered such steps in the wake of the 2007 financial crisis. Japan has never since returned to sustainable growth, and this matters for the world at large. A significant creditor to other countries, shifts in Japan's economic policy and fluctuations in its currency ripple across global interest rates, tightening or loosening financial conditions worldwide. Japan also remains a critical node in global supply chains (including for semiconductor chips and electronics), a major importer of energy, and not for nothing, its cultural exports continue to conquer the world.What lessons can Japan's lost decades of economic stagnation and missed opportunities offer the U.S. and other developed economies? Bethany and Luigi are joined by Takeo Hoshi, professor of economics at the University of Tokyo and a leading expert on Japan's financial system and economic stagnation. Together, they discuss Japan's idiosyncrasies—from demographic decline to economic policy mismanagement—and the interplay of global factors such as populism, nativism, and dissatisfaction with capitalism. If the U.S. is indeed on the cusp of its own economic bubble driven by oversized capital investments in artificial intelligence and technology rather than consumer spending and wage growth, does it have the institutions and flexibility to avoid Japan's fate? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome back to the show! In this week's episode, I sit down with Doug Elmendorf, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, to talk about the impact of government shutdowns, the challenges of fiscal sustainability, and the importance of independent statistical agencies. We discuss how shutdowns ripple through the economy and people's lives, the tough choices facing policymakers on entitlements and deficits, and why compromise is vital to our democracy. Doug also shares his perspective on the independence of federal statistical agencies, the role of private sector data, and the optimism he sees in today's policy students. It's a wide-ranging conversation about economics, governance, and the future of public service.Subscribe to the PolicyViz Podcast wherever you get your podcasts.Become a patron of the PolicyViz Podcast for as little as a buck a monthFollow me on Instagram, LinkedIn, Substack, Twitter, Website, YouTubeEmail: jon@policyviz.com

4:20 pm: Kurt Couchman, Senior Fellow in Fiscal Policy for Americans for Prosperity, joins the show for a conversation about a potential government shutdown if Congress is unable to reach a deal on how to fund the government.4:38 pm: On the heels of yesterday's shooting and arson at an LDS church in Michigan, Carl Chinn, President of the Faith Based Security Network, joins the show for a discussion about protecting America's churches.6:05 pm: Nicole Russell, a Columnist with USA Today, joins Rod and Greg for a conversation about her piece on the results of a poll that shows Americans don't trust Democrats when it comes to the economy and crime prevention.6:38 pm: Erika Sanzi, Director of Outreach for Parents Defending Education, joins the show to discuss her piece for Outkick in which she writes that teachers who show joy on social media over murder and assassinations should not be in America's classrooms.

What are the tax solutions to Reeves's budget crisis? What tax changes would encourage growth? Can she afford to scrap the two-child benefit cap? Steph and Robert speak to former Director of Fiscal Policy at the Treasury and current Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation Ruth Curtice. For investing, savings, and pensions, the smart money's with Wealthify. Open your account today at https://www.wealthify.com Wealthify is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. With investing, your capital is at risk. Tax treatments depend on individual circumstances and may change in future. Email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠restismoney@gmail.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@TheRestIsMoney⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@TheRestIsMoney⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@RestIsMoney⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://⁠⁠⁠goalhanger.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Assistant Producer: India Dunkley, Alice Horrell Producer: Ross Buchanan Head of Content: Tom Whiter Exec Producers: Tony Pastor + Jack Davenport Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders look at the state of the markets a week after the quarter-point Fed rate cut. They also discuss the implications of the lower rate for the broader market, the particular dynamics of the Federal Reserve's economic projections, and the current state of the labor market. Next, Kathy speaks with Robin Brooks, senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program at the Brookings Institution. They discuss the current state of central bank policies, focusing on the recent Fed meeting and its implications for the dollar and global markets. They explore the complexities of market reactions to Fed easing, the long-term outlook for the dollar, and the importance of institutional integrity in maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss which key economic data to watch in the coming weeks.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0925-KKW0) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today's guest is David Ditch, Senior Analyst in Fiscal Policy at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC). With over a decade of experience examining the federal budget, David has worked at the Senate Budget Committee and at The Heritage Foundation, where he helped launch the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget. His work has been published in outlets like FoxNews.com, the Los Angeles Times, and the Chicago Tribune.David's reputation is clear: he cuts through Washington spin with data-driven analysis, showing how Congress, bureaucrats, and special interests have fueled a debt crisis that threatens the future. In our conversation, we dive into the national debt as a failure of elites, the false fights over discretionary vs. mandatory spending, and what Washington could learn from low-tax, low-spend states. We also cover the gimmicks that dominate appropriations and the challenge of making fiscal responsibility popular again.For more insights, visit vanceginn.com. You can also get even greater value by subscribing to my Substack newsletter at vanceginn.substack.com. Please share with your friends, family, and broader social media network. 

Guest Kurt Couchman, Senior Fellow of Fiscal Policy for Americans for Prosperity, joins to discuss latest budget battle in DC. Discussion of Continuing Resolution, upcoming reconciliation bills, and balancing the federal budget.  US House passes a "clean" CR bill to fund the government for 7more weeks, while Democrats in the Senate look to threaten to shut down the government unless we spend more money. Are we surprised?

Michael Shaoul thinks the next two months will be more difficult for the Fed to decide the path forward. He discusses the highly-expected rate cut yesterday and the market's reaction to Powell's comments. He doesn't feel we have any “new information” and thinks the market will probably end higher even if there's a “wobble” in the last quarter. He adds that under current conditions, it's “really, really hard to engineer recession” despite labor market fears.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Inside Economics team gets together in person at All Hands Day. It is a short podcast, with more than the typical amount of chit-chat (as we are in person). But it is an action-packed conversation on the Fed's rate decision (see if we got it right), our proposal to unlock the housing market, and, of course, the statistics game!Explore the risks and realities shaping the economy in our new webinar, now streaming for free: U.S. Economic Outlook: Under Unprecedented UncertaintyWatch here: https://events.moodys.com/mc68453-wbn-2025-mau25777-us-macro-outlook-precipice-recession?mkt_tok=OT…Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedInQuestions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Chinese finance minister says the country's fiscal policy will continue to balance risk prevention and growth promotion, retaining ample room for future measures.

Today's guest is Kurt Couchman, Senior Fellow in Fiscal Policy at Americans for Prosperity—and a trusted fiscal ally since our days in Washington, back when he was at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Kurt's cutting-edge thinking on balanced-budget amendments, statutory fiscal targets, and bipartisan reform has made him one of the most respected voices in the fight against runaway spending.His new book, Fiscal Democracy in America: How a Balanced Budget Amendment Can Restore Sound Governance, is out now—and it's essential reading if you care about fiscal responsibility, government accountability, and long-term economic growth.For more insights, visit vanceginn.com. You can also get even greater value by subscribing to my Substack newsletter at vanceginn.substack.com. Please share with your friends, family, and broader social media network. 

Norbert Michel and Dominic Lett square off over whether fiscal or monetary policy is the bigger mess. Lett highlights how entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare are driving unsustainable debt levels, while Michel explains how post-2008 Federal Reserve changes have created risks of “fiscal dominance,” where monetary policy is increasingly shaped by government borrowing needs. Both stress that without structural reforms and political restraint, the U.S. faces uncertain and potentially catastrophic economic consequences.Show Notes:https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/comprehensive-evaluation-policy-rate-feedback-rules#https://www.cato.org/books/crushing-capitalismhttps://www.cato.org/blog/medicaid-driving-deficits-republicans-are-scarcely-tapping-brakeshttps://www.cato.org/news-releases/senate-bill-could-increase-debt-6-trillion-cato-analysis# Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fiscal policy shifts, from taxes to tariffs, are steering global capital and trade flows. The US, for instance, is attracting investments despite the tariff headlines—illustrating how the impact of these policies continues to evolve. In a dynamic policy environment, taxes and tariffs could create new implications for asset classes, sectors, and market structures.  This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores macro implications from taxes and tariffs, how policy changes are shaping the way investors allocate capital, and why economic growth could be more resilient against higher tariffs than in the past.  Our guests are: Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office Kimberly Clausing, professor of tax law and policy at UCLA School of Law and former lead economist in the US Treasury's Office of Tax Policy Jeffrey Young, Head of Investment Strategy for PGIM's quant team Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

ParticipantsDr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander InstituteDr João Sousa - Deputy Director at the Fraser of Allander InstituteTime stamps(0:40) What pressures does the chancellor face ahead of the autumn budget statement?(8:30) Prospects for improved economic conditions(11:00) Potential policy changes in the Autumn Budget statement(17:00) Impact on the Scottish budget process 

9:05 – 9:22 (15mins) Elias Tsapelas (Cha-pel-us), Director of State Budget and Fiscal Policy at the Show-Me Institute, to discuss reforms to Medicaid in the One Big Beautiful Bill and how they could impact Missouri. He can touch on changes like tighter eligibility checks, shorter retroactive coverage, and rolling back costly regulations, meant to reduce waste and keep the program focused on those who truly need it. 9:25 – 9:37 (12mins) Larry Conners Weekly: "Mr. Conner's Neighborhood @LarryConnersUSASee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

9:05 – 9:22 (15mins) Elias Tsapelas (Cha-pel-us), Director of State Budget and Fiscal Policy at the Show-Me Institute, to discuss reforms to Medicaid in the One Big Beautiful Bill and how they could impact Missouri. He can touch on changes like tighter eligibility checks, shorter retroactive coverage, and rolling back costly regulations, meant to reduce waste and keep the program focused on those who truly need it. 9:25 – 9:37 (12mins) Larry Conners Weekly: "Mr. Conner's Neighborhood @LarryConnersUSASee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sir Isaac Newton was a legendary physicist and mathematician. But even the man known for developing the theory of gravity failed to time the market. It is said that after cashing in his shares of Britain's South Sea Company, Newton bought back into the stock right before it crashed. Avoiding the most common mistakes that harm portfolio returns is essential to success in today's markets, where volatility is testing even the most seasoned investors. While there's no single recipe for success, accomplished long-term investors tend to remain disciplined, shut out the noise from a constant whirlwind of headlines, and avoid emotionally charged decisions. This episode of The Outthinking Investor brings lessons from Wall Street and the evolution of financial markets to help investors look beyond uncertainty and identify long-term opportunities. The discussion covers economic resilience and its portfolio implications; growth in ETFs; how alternatives can be well-suited for long-term capital; tax-loss harvesting through direct indexing; steering portfolios through unexpected crises; and more. Our guests are: Barry Ritholtz, Chief Investment Officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of “How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors that Destroy Wealth—And How to Avoid Them” Scott Bok, former chairman and CEO of investment banking firm Greenhill & Company and author of “Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing” Jim Devaney, PGIM's Head of US Distribution for the retail market Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

The House of Medici, which ruled over Florence for much of the Renaissance period, established a political dynasty with influence built on successful ventures in commerce and banking. The Medicis predated the concept of geoeconomic power, or governments' ability to wield economic might to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. Today, soft power might be giving way to intensifying competition between great powers. Government leaders are increasingly focused on solidifying economic security through trade leverage, tariffs, sanctions and other measures. As a result, potential new investment risks and opportunities are emerging. This episode of The Outthinking Investor discusses how investors can measure their portfolio's exposure to geoeconomic shifts, which economies and sectors could benefit amid a realignment in supply chains, whether the US dollar can maintain its global dominance, and investment strategies that could potentially mitigate risk and capitalize on new opportunities. Our guests are: Matteo Maggiori, finance professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business Joseph Nye, political scientist and former Dean of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government Mehill Marku, Lead Geopolitical Analyst at PGIM Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Kurt Couchman is the Senior Fellow in Fiscal Policy for Americans for Prosperity. Myths on One Big Beautiful Bill.

In this BONUS hour of The Sean Hannity Show, Sean sits down with Kurt Couchman, Senior Fellow in Fiscal Policy at Americans for Prosperity, to dismantle three persistent myths about the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” With facts and fiscal clarity, Couchman sets the record straight: Myth #1: “Only the wealthy benefited from the Trump tax cuts.”FACT: The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act delivered across-the-board tax relief—from doubling the standard deduction to lowering rates at every income level. Myth #2: “The bill cuts Medicaid for those who depend on it.”FACT: Reforms focus on efficiency and restoring Medicaid’s intended mission—not slashing support for vulnerable populations. Myth #3: “This bill explodes the deficit.”FACT: The real culprit is out-of-control spending—not tax cuts. Federal spending has tripled since 2001, while the 2017 cuts spurred growth, boosted incomes, and actually helped revenue. Growth, Couchman argues, is the antidote to deficits. A must-listen for anyone debating tax policy, entitlement reform, and fiscal responsibility. Please follow The Sean Hannity Show wherever you get your podcasts. Follow Sean and Our Guests on Social Media: Sean Hannity: Facebook: facebook.com/SeanHannity X (Twitter): x.com/seanhannity Truth Social: truthsocial.com/@SeanHannity Kurt Couchman: X (Twitter): https://x.com/KurtCouchman YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus on the Bank of Korea's likely hawkishness relative to potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Chapters: (US: 02:14, Asia: 08:53, Australia & New Zealand: 13:53, EMEA: 16:33).

Guest Kurt Couchman, Senior Fellow of Fiscal Policy with Americans for Prosperity, joins to discuss ongoing vote and discussion in the House for the Big Beautiful Bill. Discussion of differences from House and Senate versions of the bill, GOP holdouts, reforming Medicaid, and more.  Guest Jared Knott, author "Tiny Blunders/Big Disasters", joins to discuss how President Trump may be changing the coarse of history. Discussion of the decision to drop bombs on Iran, bring peace to the middle east, change tariffs and trade deals, and more. 

The Rod and Greg Show Daily Rundown – Tuesday, July 1, 20254:20 pm: From tax cuts for the wealthy to Medicaid cuts for people who need it the most, Kurt Couchman, Senior Fellow in Fiscal Policy at Americans for Prosperity, joins Rod and Greg to discuss the myths created by the Democrats about the Big Beautiful Bill.6:05 pm: Utah Attorney General Derek Brown joins the program for a conversation about the lawsuit filed against Snapchat for being addictive to children, sexual exploitation and facilitating drug sales.6:38 pm: Former Utah Congressman Jason Chaffetz, now an analyst at Fox News, joins the show for a conversation about his new book “They're Coming for You: How Deep State Spies, NGOs, and Woke Corporations Plan to Push You Out of the Economy.”

A nine-year fight to create a publicly funded election policy-costing unit has come to an end. Act and New Zealand First have shot down Finance Minister Nicola Willis's proposal to create one. Metiria Turei, then-Green Party co-leader, first proposed the idea in 2016. Former Finance Minister Steven Joyce told Mike Hosking Willis's proposal was different from those that have come before. He says to cost individual policies at the request of parties would have dealt with a problem that happens when you're in Opposition. Joyce says that's when you don't have access to the information. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Originally aired LIVE on Tuesday, June 24thBREAKING NEWS: Subscribe to Finance Unfiltered Newsletter: https://unfilteredinvestor.com/⸻Lyn Alden, founder of Lin Alden Strategies, discusses the dynamics of gold and Bitcoin as investment assets. She joins The Futures Edge with Jim Iuorio and Bob Iaccino to explore the implications of central bank policies, the future of digital currencies, and the potential risks and opportunities associated with Bitcoin. They dive into the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional equities, the impact of government spending on monetary policy, and the outlook for various asset classes in the coming years.Takeaways-Lyn Alden emphasizes the importance of gold as a hedge against inflation and counterparty risk.-Bitcoin's unique advantages include its decentralized nature and rapid settlement capabilities compared to gold.-The correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ has increased due to institutional involvement.-Central banks are exploring digital currencies, raising concerns about surveillance and control.-Alden believes Bitcoin's future is tied to its acceptance as a currency and its ability to function in various jurisdictions.-The structural deficits in the U.S. are likely to persist, impacting monetary policy and asset prices.Investors should consider diversifying their portfolios with hard assets like gold and Bitcoin.-Alden suggests that equities may experience limited returns in the coming years due to economic headwinds.-The conversation highlights the need for cautious optimism regarding Bitcoin's long-term viability.-Alden advocates for a balanced approach to investing, incorporating both traditional and digital assets.CHAPTERS: 00:00 Introduction to the Future's Edge01:23 The Value of Gold and Bitcoin04:27 Bitcoin's Potential and Volatility05:07 Government's Stance on Bitcoin07:25 Bitcoin's Role in Modern Currency13:16 Bitcoin vs. NASDAQ Correlation16:10 Concerns Over Stablecoins and CBDCs20:49 The Future of Bitcoin: Risks and Rewards22:55 The Future of Bitcoin and Network Effects23:43 The Fed's Role in the Economy and Debt Management24:33 Historical Context of Debt and Treasury Holdings26:12 Potential Crises and the Role of Hard Assets27:22 Investment Strategies in a Changing Economic Landscape30:13 Fiscal Policy and Its Implications33:43 Equity Market Outlook and Long-Term Predictions37:54 Gold vs. Bitcoin: Investment Preferences and StrategiesFollow Futures Edge Show: Twitter: https://x.com/bob_iaccinoTwitter: https://x.com/jimiuorioLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bob-iaccino/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-iuorio/Newsletter: http://theunfilteredinvestor.com/

Louisiana State Representative Julie Emerson has lot of really interesting and very informative information on Louisiana fiscal matters.  There is no fancy way of saying something that might catch your interest more than if you listen to this interview you are going to hear a lot of really good information for Louisiana, many things will pertain to other States too, and even some things as they pertain to our Federal Government.  And did Louisiana gain or lose freedom?

Sen. Elizabeth Warren joins WBUR's Morning Edition to make the case for eliminating the debt ceiling — an issue on which she sees eye-to-eye with President Trump.

In this episode, Susan Pendergrass is joined by Brian Blase, President of Paragon Health Institute, and Elias Tsapelas, Director of State Budget and Fiscal Policy at the Show-Me Institute, to break down the health care provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” They focus specifically on the bill's Medicaid provisions, including efforts to enforce eligibility checks, freeze the growth of provider tax schemes, and reduce improper enrollment. Blase and Tsapelas also discuss the reality behind claims that millions will lose coverage, the true cost of Medicaid expansion, and the perverse incentives that allow states to game the federal reimbursement system. Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

Airlines represent one of the most challenging and complex industries in today's economy. With thousands of flights moving people and cargo around the world every day, airlines manage a “complicated logistical dance,” as Oscar Munoz, United Airlines' former Chairman and CEO, tells us in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The airline industry has adapted and evolved through technological innovation, consolidation, regulatory changes, and an increasingly competitive transportation sector—providing universal lessons for businesses and investors. Amid a turbulent outlook, this episode explores how airlines are addressing a host of business challenges, from the threat of aircraft tariffs to volatile fuel costs and customer demand. Topics include business strategies that drive revenues and boost profits, the future of business and leisure travel, navigating antiquated air traffic control systems, the outlook for low-cost carriers, and reflections on United Airlines' turnaround. Our guests are: Oscar Munoz, former United Airlines Chairman and CEO Jack Fitzsimmons, credit analyst on PGIM Fixed Income's US Leveraged Finance Credit Research team Sean Goodier, credit analyst on PGIM Fixed Income's European Investment Grade Credit Research team Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

In this episode of Good Morning Liberty, hosts Nate Thurston and Charles Thompson dive into the Dumb Bleep of the Month for April and May 2025. They cover a variety of absurd and controversial topics including Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement, Douglas Murray vs. Dave Smith debate, Bill Burr's inaccurate economic takes, Misfit Patriot's genocidal comments, and much more. Join them as they humorously unpack the dumbest events of the past two months, featuring mariachis in the Texas House, shocking Biden revelations, and a showdown between Trump and Thomas Massie. Buckle up for a mix of laughter and facepalms!   (00:00) Intro (02:12) April's Dumb Bleep Nominees (09:57) Debate Highlights: Douglas Murray vs. Dave Smith (14:32) Bill Burr's Economic Rant (23:51) Misfit Patriot's Controversial Statements (29:36) May's Dumb Bleep Nominees (35:01) Redistribution and White Fragility (35:51) African Development Foundation Scandal (43:16) Biden's Mental Acuity Revelations (50:48) Texas House and Property Taxes (55:04) Trump vs. Massie and Fiscal Policy (01:05:29) Conclusion and Recap   Links:   https://gml.bio.link/   YOUTUBE:   https://bit.ly/3UwsRiv   RUMBLE:   https://rumble.com/c/GML   Check out Martens Minute!   https://martensminute.podbean.com/   Follow Josh Martens on X:   https://twitter.com/joshmartens13   Join the private discord & chat during the show!   joingml.com   Bank on Yourself bankonyourself.com/gml   Get FACTOR Today! FACTORMEALS.com/factorpodcast     Good Morning Liberty is sponsored by BetterHelp! Rediscover your curiosity today by visiting Betterhelp.com/GML (Get 10% off your first month)     Protect your privacy and unlock the full potential of your streaming services with ExpressVPN. Get 3 more months absolutely FREE by using our link EXPRESSVPN.com/GML  

There are many threats to the U.S. economy. How might investors prepare for uncertainty? We discuss fixed income opportunities. • Learn more at thriventfunds.com • Follow us on LinkedIn • Share feedback and questions with us at podcast@thriventfunds.com • Thrivent Distributors, LLC is a member of FINRA and a subsidiary of Thrivent, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans.

In this week's Libertarian Angle, Jacob and Richard discuss the out-of-control spending and debt under the Trump administration. Please subscribe to our email newsletter FFF Daily here.

Midweek Market Insights and Legislative Updates In this episode of Dividend Cafe on June 4th, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group provides a market overview, discussing the uneventful day in equities, with minor movements in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. He explains the rally in the bond market caused by private payroll numbers missing estimates significantly. Brian also reviews the mixed economic indicators from the May ISM services index and services PMI, noting one indicator in contraction and the other in expansion. He addresses the fiscal impact and revisions of a significant legislative bill, emphasizing the need for reduced spending, especially on entitlements. Additionally, he answers a question about section 899 of the proposed bill regarding tax rates for foreign investors in U.S. assets. He concludes by previewing upcoming data releases for the week, including initial jobless claims, productivity numbers, trade deficit, and employment figures. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:38 Economic Indicators and Employment Data 01:53 Fiscal Policy and Deficit Concerns 03:06 Foreign Investment Tax Proposal 04:19 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

President Trump's trade war, regulatory overhaul, and fiscal shake-up aim to rewire the U.S. and global economies. Can it work—or backfire? Economist Marco Annunziata, former Chief Economist at GE, joins host Alan Stoga to explore the promises and pitfalls of Trumponomics—and what it might mean for your job, savings, and future.

Mike Wills is joined by Vincent Anthonyrajah, CEO and co-founder of Differential Capital, for a crash course in Bond Market 101 — and why global investors are suddenly jittery. With Trump back in the headlines and Republican fiscal plans adding trillions to U.S. debt, markets are reacting with rising interest rates, slower growth forecasts, and a general sense of financial unease. Presenter John Maytham is an actor and author-turned-talk radio veteran and seasoned journalist. His show serves a round-up of local and international news coupled with the latest in business, sport, traffic and weather. The host’s eclectic interests mean the program often surprises the audience with intriguing book reviews and inspiring interviews profiling artists. A daily highlight is Rapid Fire, just after 5:30pm. CapeTalk fans call in, to stump the presenter with their general knowledge questions. Another firm favourite is the humorous Thursday crossing with award-winning journalist Rebecca Davis, called “Plan B”. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Afternoon Drive with John Maytham Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 15:00 and 18:00 (SA Time) to Afternoon Drive with John Maytham broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/BSFy4Cn or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/n8nWt4x Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media: CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“I think ultimately the bond market is the disciplinarian for fiscal policymakers” says Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management. Medeiros joins Macro Matters hosts Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI's senior associate US-Canada rates strategist, to discuss all things US and Canadian rates. The trio has one foot on each side of the border on this episode, unpacking the recent bond-market moves and their drivers. They cover the developing state of fiscal budgets and potential stimulative impacts on these economies, as well where monetary policy and yield curves may be headed as price-sensitive investors demand additional premium for long-dated sovereign debt. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

As President Donald J. Trump races to get the "One Big Beautiful Bill" across the finish line in Congress, our host with the most, Mike Slater, talks about a few final nooks and crannies of the legislation that haven't been covered by the lamestream media. You might be sick about hearing about this thing, but it's important and you'll want to know what Mike has to say!Following the opener, Breitbart's Economics Editor, John Carney, joins the program to give a fiscal expert's take on the bill and also gab about the "drama" surrounding America's state credit being downgraded by Moody's. It's an informative and educational discussion!

Luca Fornaro is a senior researcher at CREI and professor at both UPF and the Barcelona School of Economics. In Luca's first appearance on the show, he discusses his expansive work on, hysteresis, stagnation traps, endogenous growth, aggregate demand policies, the medium run, population growth and much more.  Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on April 23th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Follow Luca on X: @LucaFornaro3 Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:51) – Luca's Background (00:03:19) – Hysteresis (00:7:23) – Why Talk About Hysteresis Now? (00:10:55) – Stagnation Trap (00:16:07) – The Medium Run (00:22:25) – Managing Expectations with Automatic Stabilizers (00:28:48) – What About Population Growth? (00:31:47) – The Empirical Side (00:39:24) – Directing Capital Flows (00:42:30) – The Scars of Supply Shocks (00:48:57) – The Nominal GDP Targeting Solution (00:51:28) – Fiscal Stagnation (00:59:21) – Outro

Fixed income portfolio manager Connor Fitzgerald joins host Amar Reganti to discuss the potential effects of tariffs and other fiscal decisions on the bond market.2:20 Liberation Day fallout5:10 Tariffs as taxes7:40 Breaking down market impacts10:10 Structural increase in term premia12:45 Inflation breakeven signals15:55 Probability of recession19:00 Managing fixed income portfolios

Critical shipping routes around the world, from the Panama Canal to the Bosphorus Strait, hold strategic importance for global trade. As a result, these chokepoints are often caught in the crosshairs of geopolitical competition. But in a new age of economic warfare, invisible chokepoints are also emerging. The dominance of the US dollar, economic sanctions, and tariffs on imported goods can all be leveraged to achieve political goals. Meanwhile, nations are laying out plans to increase defense spending—potentially altering the outlook for productivity, industrial activity, and economic growth. With economic warfare becoming a lasting feature of the investment environment, new winners and losers based on country, region, sector and asset class could emerge. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores how economic warfare, national security concerns, and friend-shoring in global trade are creating new implications for investors to consider. Our guests are: Edward Fishman, senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and author of the new book, “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare” Katharine Neiss, PGIM Fixed Income's Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist Jeff Rathke, President of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University and former American diplomat Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Susan Pendergrass speaks with Sean McCarthy, Director of Fiscal Policy for the Arizona House of Representatives, about the state's innovative approach to education. They discuss universal school choice, open enrollment, and the broader implications of Arizona's funding mechanisms. McCarthy highlights Arizona's unique position as a national leader in school choice, the role of parental decision-making, and the challenges involved in education budgeting. They also discuss the Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) program and examine the positive impact this approach has had on rural schools across the state. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Arizona's Fiscal Policy and Education System 00:48 Universal School Choice in Arizona 03:55 Open Enrollment Dynamics and Parental Choices 10:13 Funding Mechanisms and Their Implications 14:59 Challenges in Education Funding and Budgeting 19:59 Arizona's ESA Program and Parental Empowerment 26:55 Rural Education and School Choice Outcomes Produced by Show-Me Opportunity

In Episode 407 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Macro Tourist's Kevin Muir about the power of fiscal spending and why fiscal austerity and trade tariffs will lead to lower asset prices, U.S. equity market underperformance, and a falling U.S. dollar. Kevin and Demetri spend the first hour of this podcast discussing the importance of fiscal policy and why government spending has been one of the biggest sources of outperformance for investors in the last five years. They discuss why that's the case, why the effects of fiscal policy continue to be overlooked and discounted relative to monetary policy, and what this means going forward if we take the Trump team at his word about wanting to reduce the deficit and scale back on fiscal spending. In the second hour, Muir and Kofinas dig even deeper into the fiscal spending implications for U.S. equity and bond markets, concerns about rotation risk into global equities, the investment opportunities in Europe and Asia, downside risks to the US dollar, the China gold put, and much more. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/24/2025

Sign up for our free March 24 webinar right here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPolitico Germany moves to overhaul debt rules to unleash major defense spendinghttps://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/Roberto Perotti What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy?https://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1397925830013.pdfWilson, Daniel J.. 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (3): 251–82.https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/pol.4.3.251https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This Flashback Friday is from episode 262, published last June 9, 2012. Countries around the globe are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, with our own country no exception. Jason Hartman interviews Dr. Kirk Elliot, Ph.D., investment adviser with ICA, on monetary and fiscal policy and the irresponsibility of governments around the world. Using Greece as an example, Dr. Elliott states that when governments run out of money, they start doing crazy things. The one fundamental issue in Greece is public debt, over which they lost their autonomy and are now under the rules of the EU. Italy, Iceland, Portugal, France and others are on the verge of bankruptcy and due to that, the EU has been unable to bail out Greece. Across the pond in the U.S., we have lost our credit rating and are losing the reserve currency status with a lack of interest in our Treasury bills and notes. The definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply, and price increases are a symptom of inflation. As more money is printed, it loses value and nobody wants it, which is sending the U.S. down the same tube as other countries in economic crisis. People around the world have lost faith in the U.S. dollar and the country's ability to repay its debt. Dr. Elliott says when interest rates go up, it will open a whole new can of worms with the bond market, which will come crashing down hard on retirees and insurance companies. But it's not all doom and gloom. There are counter-cyclical investment strategies that people should take advantage of that are attached to physical assets, such as precious metals and real estate investments (commodities with universal need.) Kirk Elliott has been an investment adviser with ICA in Durango, Colorado since January of 2002 and has been working in the financial services industry since 1994. Dr. Elliott is passionate about educating and equipping his clients with the information they need to safeguard their hard-earned assets. Dr. Elliott earned his Ph.D. in Public Policy and Administration from Walden University. His dissertation is entitled, “An Empirical Identification of an Appropriate Inflation Definition and an Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy.” Dr. Elliott also earned a Master of Arts in International Studies from the University of Denver, and a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of Colorado.   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Taxpayers across the state sent angry emails and phone calls to lawmakers, as the Senate Committe on Tax and Fiscal Policy gutted the property tax reform bill of key provisions on Tuesday. The surprise move left citizens upset and the governor scrambling on how to save his top legislative item. Rob Kendall, Abdul-Hakim Shabazz, and Jim Merritt discuss what's next for Senate Bill 1 on Statehouse Happenings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

David and Ejaaz dissect the latest in AI crypto markets after a ruthless 70% drop, weighing whether it's just a temporary setback or a major reset. Arc and Fartcoin show surprise rebounds, Virtuals unveils a $2M “fiscal policy” to fund agent innovation, and Coinbase's AI hackathon spotlights a future swarming with yield-bots and marketing agents. Meanwhile, Freya's vision of sovereign on-chain AI may mark the next frontier. If you're tracking the evolution of agents, markets, and where crypto's AI boom goes next, this episode is a must-listen (as always, anon). ------

Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research, Michael Zezas, and Global Head of Macro Strategy, Matt Hornbach, discuss how the Trump administration's fiscal policies could impact Treasuries markets.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research.Matthew Hornbach: And I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Zezas: Today, we'll talk about U.S. fiscal policy expectations under the new Trump administration and the path for U.S. Treasury yields.It's Thursday, January 30th at 10am in New York.Fiscal policy is one of the four key channels that have a major impact on markets. And I want to get into the outlook for the broader path for fiscal policy under the new administration. But Matt, let's start with your initial take on this week's FOMC meeting.Matthew Hornbach: So, investors came into the FOMC meeting this week with a view that they were going to hear a message from Chair Powell that sounded very similar to the message they heard from him in December. And I think that was largely the outcome. In other words, investors got what they expected out of this FOMC meeting. What did it say about the chance the Fed would lower interest rates again as soon as the March FOMC meeting? I think in that respect investors walked away with the message that the Fed's baseline view for the path of monetary policy probably did not include a reduction of the policy rate at the March FOMC meeting. But that there was a lot of data to take on board between now and that meeting. And, of course, the Fed as ever remains data dependent.All of that said, the year ahead for markets will rely on more than just Fed policy. Fiscal policy may feature just as prominently. But during the first week of Trump's presidency, we didn't get much signaling around the president's fiscal policy intentions. There are plenty of key issues to discuss as we anticipate more details from the new administration.So, Mike, to set the scene here. What is the government's budget baseline at the start of Trump's second term? And what are the president's priorities in terms of fiscal policies?Michael Zezas: You know, I think the real big variable here is the set of tax cuts that expire at the end of 2025. These were tax cuts originally passed in President Trump's first term. And if they're allowed to expire, then the budget baseline would show that the deficit would be about $100 billion smaller next year.If instead the tax cuts are extended and then President Trump were able to get a couple more items on top of that – say, for example, lifting the cap on state and local tax deduction and creating a domestic manufacturing tax credit; two things that we think are well within the consensus of Republicans, even with their slim majority – then the deficit impact swings from a contraction to something like a couple hundred billion dollars of deficit expansion next year. So, there's meaningful variance there.And Matt, we've got 10-year Treasury yields hovering near highs that we haven't seen since before the global financial crisis around 10 years ago. And yields are up around a full percentage point since September. So, what's going on here and to what extent is the debate on the deficit influential?Matthew Hornbach: Well, I think we have to consider a couple of factors. The deficit certainly being one of them, but people have been discussing deficits for a long time now. It's certainly news to no one that the deficit has grown quite substantially over the past several years. And most investors expect that the deficit will continue to grow. So, concerns around the deficit are definitely a factor and in particular how those deficits create more government bonds supply. The U.S. Treasury, of course, is in charge of determining exactly how much government bond supply ends up hitting the marketplace.But it's important to note that the incoming U.S. Treasury secretary has been on the record as suggesting that lower deficits relative to the size of the economy are desired. Taking the deficit to GDP ratio from its current 7 per cent to 3 per cent over the next four years is desirable, according to the incoming Treasury secretary. So, I think it is far from conclusive that deficits are only heading in one direction. They may very well stabilize, and investors will eventually need to come to terms with that possibility.The other factor I think that's going on in the Treasury market today relates to the calendar. Effectively we have just gone through the end of the year. It's typically a time when investors pull back from active investment, but not every investor pulls back from actively investing in the market. And in particular, there is a consortium of investors that trade with more of a momentum bias that saw yields moving higher and invested in that direction; that, of course, exacerbated the move.And of course, this was all occurring ahead of a very important event, which was the inauguration of President Trump. There was a lot of concern amongst investors about exactly what the executive orders would entail for key issues like trade policy. And so there was, I think, a buyer's strike in the government bond market really until we got past the inauguration.So, Mike, with that background, can you help investors understand the process by which legislation and its deficit impact will be decided? Are there signposts to pay attention to? Perhaps people and processes to watch?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so the starting point here is Republicans have very slim majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. And extending these tax cuts in the way Republicans want to do it probably means they won't get enough Democratic votes to cross the aisle in the Senate to avoid a filibuster.So, you have to use this process called budget reconciliation to pass things with a simple majority. That's important because the first step here is determining how much of an expected deficit expansion that Republicans are willing to accept. So, procedurally then, what you can expect from here, is the House of Representatives take the first step – probably by the end of May. And then the Senate will decide what level of deficit expansion they're comfortable with – which then means really in the fall we'll find out what tax provisions are in, which ones are out, and then ultimately what the budget impact would be in 2026.But because of that, it means that between here and the fall, many different fiscal outcomes will seem very likely, even if ultimately our base case, which is an extension of the TCJA with a couple of extra provisions, is what actually comes true.And given that, Matt, would you say that this type of confusion in the near term might also translate into some variance in Treasury yields along the way to ultimately what you think the end point for the year is, which is lower yields from here?Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. There's such a focus amongst investors on the fiscal policy outlook that any volatility in the negotiation process will almost certainly show up in Treasury yields over time.Michael Zezas: Got it.Matthew Hornbach: On that note, Mike, one more question, if I may. Could you walk me through the important upcoming dates for Congress that could shed light on the willingness or ability to expand the deficit further?Michael Zezas: Yeah, so I'd pay attention to this March 14th deadline for extending stopgap appropriations because there will likely be a lot of chatter amongst Congressional Republicans about fiscal expectations. And it's the type of thing that could feed into some of the volatility and perception that you talked about, which might move markets in the meantime.I still think most of the signal we have to wait for here is around the reconciliation process, around what the Senate might say over the summer. And then probably most importantly, the negotiation in the fall about ultimately what taxes will be passed, what that deficit impact will be. And then there's this other variable around tariffs, which can also create an offsetting impact on any deficit expansion.So still a lot to play for despite that near term deadline, which might give us a little bit of information and might influence markets on a near term basis.Matthew Hornbach: Great. Well Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Zezas: Matt, great speaking with you. And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.