Podcasts about q4 gdp

To get your dose of daily business news, tune into Mint Top of the Morning on Mint Podcasts available on all audio streaming platforms. https://open.spotify.com/show/7x8Nv1RlOKyMV5IftIJwP1?si=bf5ecbaedd8f4ddc This is Nelson John, and I'll bring you the top business and tech stories, let's get started.  Harvard in Trump's Crosshairs Harvard is the latest Ivy League school facing Trump's crackdown on alleged campus antisemitism. On Monday, the White House launched a review of its $9 billion in federal funding—weeks after stripping Columbia University of $400 million. Harvard's new president, Alan Garber, has acted swiftly: dismissing Middle Eastern Studies leaders, cutting ties with a West Bank university, and reinforcing academic diversity guidelines. Critics say it's not enough. Former Harvard President Larry Summers accused the school of ignoring Israeli perspectives, while faculty worry Garber is caving to political pressure. Princeton, too, is caught in the crossfire, with Trump pausing dozens of its research grants. Princeton's president calls it “the greatest threat to American universities since the Red Scare.” Garber warns that losing federal funds could cripple research, but with Trump's task force investigating multiple institutions, the battle is far from over. India Eyes Bigger Green Bond Target India is considering increasing its ₹25,342 crore sovereign green bond issuance for FY26, riding on investor interest. Green bonds, which fund renewable energy and climate projects, currently see a 2-3 basis point premium (“greenium”) over regular bonds in India, lower than the 3-8 points seen in developed markets. Officials expect higher returns this year amid global shifts towards sustainable finance. However, if investor demand falls short, the government may scale back. Since 2022, India has issued ₹58,000 crore in green bonds to support its 500 GW non-fossil fuel energy target by 2030. The coming months will determine investor appetite and the country's green finance trajectory. Manufacturing Rebounds, But Trade Risks Loom India's manufacturing sector rebounded in March, with the HSBC PMI hitting 58.1—its highest in eight months—driven by surging new orders. Strong demand and marketing efforts fueled the recovery, but concerns over potential US tariffs linger. President Trump is set to announce new trade measures on April 2, raising fears of weakened exports. A 20% tariff hike could shave 0.4% off India's GDP, according to Capital Economics. Inflation is also rising, with higher costs for copper, electronics, and rubber. The RBI, meeting April 7-9, may cut rates to support growth, but with Q4 GDP tracking at 6.7%, below its 6.5% target, economic uncertainty remains. IPL Drives Food Delivery Boom The IPL season is fueling a surge in food orders, with fast-food chains cashing in. Domino's sees no sign of demand slowing, doubling down on promotions like its six-in-one pizza. Streaming and TV viewership are soaring—JioHotstar reported a 40% spike in digital engagement, while TV audiences hit 253 million in the first three matches. Rebel Foods, which runs Wendy's and Oven Story, increased marketing spend by 10-20%, banking on the cricket frenzy. Last year, IPL-driven sales jumped 60-70%, and brands expect another blockbuster season despite broader economic concerns.

Navigating Market Reactions and Trade Policies In this episode of Dividend Cafe dated March 27th, Brian Szytel discusses the market's modest downturn amidst a choppy trading session, with most indices falling by roughly a third of a percent. He highlights the impact of President Trump's enacted 25% tariffs on the automotive industry, particularly affecting imports from Mexico and Canada, and speculates on potential leniency in global reciprocal tariffs set for April 2nd. Szytel also explores the long-term economic implications of these tariffs, compares current market conditions to historical trade policies, and emphasizes the significance of the financial sector's resilience. Additionally, he addresses a question about transitioning from corporate tax to wealth management, emphasizing the importance of people-centered service in the field. The episode concludes with a brief overview of recent positive economic indicators including Q4 GDP revisions, jobless claims, and housing market strength. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:42 Impact of Tariffs on the Automotive Industry 01:39 Historical Context and Economic Implications 02:59 Financial Sector Performance 05:12 Wealth Management Insights 07:47 Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent Q4 GDP data, which showed a positive growth of 0.7%, putting an end (yet again!) to the recession. They explore the implications of this growth on monetary policy, particularly regarding the OCR and inflation risks. The conversation shifts to sales volumes in the property market, off the back of the latest CoreLogic Housing Chart Pack, noting a slight decline in February but an overall upward trend. They also analyse lending trends, highlighting a tentative shift towards longer-term mortgage rates. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 20th of March, will the light at the end of the economic tunnel start to reveal itself with today's Q4 GDP data? 15-year-old Sam Ruthe is on the show after becoming the youngest person to run a sub four-minute mile. Senior expert on Russia Keir Giles joins us out of the UK after we've now had the Trump/Putin call, and the Trump/Zelenskyy call overnight. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trump delays tariffs on auto imports for a month and the ECB cuts rates. Australia's exports to the US jump despite tariff uncertainty. Forecasts for New Zealand's Q4 GDP may fall, and Malaysia holds rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the RBA's February meeting minutes this week point to only one more rate cut this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks and bond yields fall sharply again after the United States imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, who retaliate with moves of their own. Australia's Q4 GDP is set for an export boost, while green shoots emerge in New Zealand's housing market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines what to expect from China's National People's Congress this week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Market Decline and Economic Data Analysis In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel covers the market's downturn on February 27th, noting significant declines in the NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow indexes with a shift from growth to value stocks. Key economic data discussed includes a steady Q4 GDP growth at 2.3%, better-than-expected durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims at 242,000. He also addresses the impracticality of returning to the gold standard, the nuances of inflation control, and the broader implications for economic stability and growth. The episode concludes with insights into the housing market's current stagnation and a look at central bank roles in economic regulation. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:51 Economic Data Insights 02:10 Housing Market Update 02:40 Discussion on Gold Standard and Inflation 04:15 Central Banks and Economic Stability 05:10 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The US dollar jumps after Trump says 25% tariffs will hit Canadian and Mexican imports from next Tuesday. New Zealand business confidence nudges up as interest rates fall, and weaker Australian capital expenditure may lower Q4 GDP forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how much the RBA's rate cut last week might feed through to Australia's housing market this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Lance has come up with a new business model for a Help Desk subscription service. It works on anything. The problem with margin debt; there's no appetite for IPO's. What Wall st. is doing instead. market sell off on Friday more the result of volatility around options expiration than Wuhan Lab news of the second coming of Covid. Don't expect any reflex rally today to hold. Economic indicators continue to hint at weaknesses; be aware of the content feeding sentiment surveys. There is a Republican and Democrat dynamic to the data and its interpretation. Two expectations feed into term Premium. Coming this week: The second revision to Q4 GDP (as opposed to China's one-and-done reporting. Or else.) PCE inflation report preview. Will markets ever never focus on Data next-day-ism? (no.) Lance recounts his first exposure to investing, 'Learning from Mr. Lehman." Reading the WSJ, the news was days-old, and average stock holding period was 7-years; contrast with velocity of information today, and average stock holding period not is 4-months. Markets have become like casinos (and the house always wins). What does all of this have to do with margin debt? Short-termism & Market casinos: knowing the rules. Margin debt vs stock prices. The velocity of increase in margin debt is alarming: It provides buying power on the way up, but also adds fuel for selling power on the way down. Margin calls create mandatory selling. SEG-1: Market Correction Not Unexpected SEG-2: Economic Indicators Continue to Show Weakness SEG-3: Learning from Mr. Lehman SEG-4: Short-termism, Market Casino's, and Margin Debt Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1hXd_Jg4mg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Balances Suggest Risks Are Building" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-balances-suggests-risks-are-building/ Adam Taggart & Lance Roberts: "Market Correction "Near Guaranteed" Given Insanely High Earnings Expectations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjVdeFPFXfs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1&t=7s ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets' Reflex Rally Hold?," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I41LvgZmcZc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Bears Come Out of Hibernation" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-v7Z4cEX1E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketSellOff #MarketCatalyst #WuhanLab #CoronaVirus #OptionsExpiration #ReflexiveRally #50DMA #COVID #AllTimeHighs #MarketMomentum #RelativeStrenth #PriceCompression #MACDBuySignal #CoronavirusDiscovery #MarketShakeup #FinancialNews #EconomicImpact #MarketVolatility #MarginBalances #FinancialRisks #InvestmentTalk #StockMarketTrends#InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Lance has come up with a new business model for a Help Desk subscription service. It works on anything. The problem with margin debt; there's no appetite for IPO's. What Wall st. is doing instead. market sell off on Friday more the result of volatility around options expiration than Wuhan Lab news of the second coming of Covid. Don't expect any reflex rally today to hold. Economic indicators continue to hint at weaknesses; be aware of the content feeding sentiment surveys. There is a Republincan and Democrat dynamic to the data and its interpretation. Two expectations feed into term Prieum. Coming this week: The second revision to Q4 GDP (as oppoased to China's one-and-done reporting. Or else.) PCE inflation report preview. Will markets ever never focus on Data next-day-ism? (no.) Lance recounts his first exposure to investing, 'Learning from Mr. Lehman." Reading the WSJ, the news was days-old, and average stock holiding period was 7-years; contrast with velocity of information today, and average stock holding period not is 4-months. Markets have become like casinos (and the house always wins). What does all of this have to do with marging debt? Short-termism & Market casinos: knowing the rules. Maring debt vs stock prices. The velocity of increase in margin debt is alarming: It provides buying power on the way up, but also adds fuel for selling power on the way down. Margin calls create mandatory selling. SEG-1: Market Correction Not Unexpected SEG-2: Economic Indicators Continue to Show Weakness SEG-3: Learning fomr Mr. Lehman SEG-4: Short-termism, Market Casino's, and Margin Debt Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO,  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1hXd_Jg4mg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Balances Suggest Risks Are Building" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-balances-suggests-risks-are-building/ Adam Taggart & Lance Roberts: "Market Correction "Near Guaranteed" Given Insanely High Earnings Expectations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjVdeFPFXfs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuh0I07NdQcssCvh6_yDa9bz&index=1&t=7s ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets' Reflex Rally Hold?," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I41LvgZmcZc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "When Bears Come Out of Hibernation" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-v7Z4cEX1E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketSellOff #MarketCatalyst #WuhanLab #CoronaVirus #OptionsExpiration #ReflexiveRally #50DMA #COVID #AllTimeHighs #MarketMomentum #RelativeStrenth #PriceCompression #MACDBuySignal #CoronavirusDiscovery #MarketShakeup #FinancialNews #EconomicImpact #MarketVolatility #MarginBalances #FinancialRisks #InvestmentTalk #StockMarketTrends#InvestingTrends  #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it doesn't look like our trading partners are going to be that helpful getting us out of recession.This week we will be watching for the Selected Prices inflation indications on Friday. And financial markets will be doing their final jostling for the following week's set of monetary policy decisions, first from the RBA on the Tuesday of that week, and the RBNZ the next day. But this coming week the US will release its CPI and PPI reports, and the Fed will face a partisan Congress to explain the Monetary Policy Report they released over this past weekend. India will release updated inflation data, and the EU its Q4 GDP growth result. And this week a set of sentiment surveys will be released in Australia.Over this weekend there were some major releases from the US.First, the Fed released its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. Although it got almost no wider media coverage, it does point to some very interesting stresses they are going to have to work their way through. And they are issues that could have global consequences. While they see banks having 'ample' liquidity at present (previously they saw 'abundant' levels, so a shift), in fact as a proportion of their economy it is historically low. If banks have low liquidity, that puts the Fed in a tough spot if it want to keep shrinking its balance sheet. The Fed's 'normalisation' is an economic tightening process that only works without consequences if the banking system has excess liquidity. When that shrinks, as it seems it is, then overall low liquidity could jerk benchmark interest rates higher. Something will give, and the Fed may have to stop its QT process. Announcing that is a big market signal and this MPR suggests it is close.Secondly, total US consumer credit surged by almost +US$41 bln in December, far exceeding the forecasted +US$$12 bln. In fact it was the largest increase in the history of this metric. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards and personal lines of credit, jumped by +US$23 bln. Meanwhile, non-revolving credit, which covers car loans and student debt, increased by +US$18 bln. The overall +2.4% year-on-year rise suggests consumers are only modestly taking on more debt however, similar to inflation's rise. Third, US January non-farm payrolls growth came in less that expected, up +144,000 when the average of market estimates was +170,000. In 2024 that would have been regarded as a "big miss'.The data collectors said that wildfires in LA and severe winter weather in other parts of the country, had “no discernible effect” on employment in the month.Their jobless rate ticked down to 4.0% and average weekly earnings rose +4.2% from a year ago, so overall a mixed picture.And fourth, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for February fell from January and quite sharply. It's the second straight month of retreat and is now its lowest reading since July 2024. Both the 'conditions' and 'expectations' measures fell. There was also a large slide in buying conditions for durables, in part due to a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of their tariff policy. In addition, inflation expectations for the year ahead soared to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, from 3.3%. This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise in year-ahead inflation expectations. Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year.Not only is this measure of sentiment down in February from January (-4.6%), it is down even more sharply from February a year ago (-12%).And it is not going to get better. Trump is signaling 'reciprocal tariffs' on many countries, also expected to raise costs for Americans. It will be a major international escalation. No indication here on how that will affect New Zealand that basically doesn't have any tariffs with anyone. (In his alternate reality, he may just invent that we have some, of course.)An uncertain and fearful American middle class may have a much bigger impact on the global economy than even their new public policy direction. Of course the two are related.North of the border, Canada turned in a very strong jobs report again, it's second consecutive big gain. +76,000 new jobs were added in January, far higher than the +25,000 expected. Their jobless rate fell to 6.6%. Of course, this too is much more uncertain when looking ahead, for the same US-based reasons.As the New Zealand dairy industry knows, Canada has an [illegal] trade protection scheme operating for its dairy industry, a system of "supply management". Their industry leaders "don't think it [is] being threatened" in the current stoush with the US.And while we are reporting about dairy, we should note that American milk consumption rose +3.2% in 2024 while artificial 'plant milk' consumption fell -5.9% in the year. (Source.) That happening at a time when US milk production is steady (+0.7%) will no doubt create some interesting market supply stresses. But these signals may turn that around in the next season. The cost of feed for the mostly barn-housed industry will be the main indicator of how enthusiastic the response will be.Japan is reporting that household spending jumped in December and by very much more than anticipated. It was up +2.7% in December from November when only a +0.5% rise was anticipated. That large monthly shift now means that the year-on-year rise is +2.3%. If Japanese consumers are opening their wallets, it is both a sign that sentiment is rising, and it will be some counterbalance to the US ructions and the Chinese slowdown. We should not forget that Japan is the world's fourth largest economy, larger than India. It is similarly important for New Zealand exports.India cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 6.25%, its first cut since April 2020. Their forecasts indicate rising growth and falling inflation. Although that will be what PM Modi wants to hear, they may be 'brave' forecasts. But they are juicing up the stimulus, with this rate cut part of a two-part action to compliment last week's income tax cuts.In China, their January CPI inflation is meandering close to zero, although it picked up to +0.5% from a year ago in this latest update, and that was because of the +0.7% rise in the month from December. So perhaps they have avoided deflation - in this official data at least. But beef prices were little changed month-on-month but down -13% from a year ago. Lamb priced were up marginally, to be -5.6% lower than a year ago. Their milk prices fell rather sharply in January, taking the annual dip to -1.7%. China's producer prices remained disinflationary, down -2.3% year-on-year.China said its official reserves rose marginally in January, now at US$3.2 tln. US$769 bln of that is US Treasury debt, and falling (Nov-24). (Those holdings may now be lower than those the UK holds in US Treasuries.)Global world food prices were little-changed in January and are still running lower than a year ago. There was a small dip in sheepmeat prices, a rise in beef prices, and big rise in dairy prices. In fact dairy prices are now at two year highs, but are still -10% lower than when they peaked in June 2022.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.50%, up +5 bps from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$2860/oz and little-changed from Saturday. But this is up +US$50/oz from a week ago. In between, gold hit its record high of US$2883/oz. Also note, China is now allowing its insurers to 'invest in gold'.Oil prices are little-changed at just on US$71/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still at US$74.50/bbl. But these levels are -US$1.50 lower than week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.6 USc and up +10 bps from this time Saturday.  Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just under 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and the same as on Saturday, down -30 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,463 and a minor -0.3% slip from this time Saturday. And it is -6.8% lower than this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.8%. And we should note that El Salvador has ended its experiment where bitcoin was legal tender. It isn't anymore.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Wall Street is reassessing its valuation basics, and there is a general pullback across the board. It started with questions about an AI valuation bubble, but is extending to others now. "Risk-off" is the mood today.But first, yesterday's reporting of China's official PMIs for January all took a step lower, now recording virtually no expansion. This was weaker than expected. Their factory PMI fell into a contraction state (49.1), while their services PMI retreated to only a weak expansion (50.2). It wasn't the result policymakers there would have wanted given they have been trying to stimulate their economy for more than three months now. It that effort is working, the core must have been quite compromised.Chinese industrial profits were reported to be -3.3% lower in the year to December than the same period in 2023. But perhaps there are some reason to be positive for December alone, they were +7.0% higher than the same month a year ago - and that might have been their best December on record. Hard to tell how much Beijing stimulus was part of that late effort however. However, the January PMIs probably mean they have got off to a weak start in 2025.China's tax take grew +1.3% in 2024 following a 6.4% rise in 2023. The sharp slowing followed slowing domestic demand and a slump in their property market, all consistent with the overall economic challenges they have.Bloomberg is pointing out that current commercial real estate activity in Hong Kong is crystalising some very large losses. This re-rating will have loud echoes in many places. It is one of Hong Kong's worst slumps in history, with no end in sight. Average prices of office buildings, shopping malls and other properties have fallen more than 40% from their highs in 2018, eroding the value of the collateral backing many bank loans. Defaults are also rising as more property owners and developers run into severe cash flow difficulties.None of these China-based news data items will be helping the Spring Festival mood in the business sector.In the US, the Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing survey picked up pace in January to its highest since October 2021. New orders hit their highest since April 2022, while capacity utilisation and shipments also rose.Meanwhile, there was also a rise in new home sales in the US in December, taking them back to mid-range for any 2024 month.And the Chicago Fed's National Activity index improved in December. All this gritting economic activity bodes well for the 2024-Q4 GDP result due out on Friday.The UST 10yr yield is lower at 4.53%, down -9 bps from yesterday at this time. Wall Street is down sharply today with the S&P500 down -2.0% to start its week. The price of gold will start today at US$2733/oz and down -US$37 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2 at just over US$72.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now under US$76.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.8 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.1, and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$99,190 and down -5.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the rise in long term benchmark rates is echoing everywhere, including in New Zealand.But first, if you are just back from your summer break, welcome back to work. Those benchmark interest rates have been on the move up while you have been away.The week ahead will be focused locally on early indications of Q4-2024 inflation. We get the 'selected price indicators' for December this week on Thursday, to be followed by the full Q4 CPI next week on Wednesday. In Australia, their December labour market report is also due out Thursday. In the US the main focus will be on earnings reports from the big banks.And the US will be releasing their CPI data, and given rising inflation fears and rising interest rates, that could well be a significant market mover. Currently markets expect it to run at 2.8% (from 2.7% in November), but you have to say there are upside risks here and financial markets are pricing those in now. They will release their influential inflation expectations survey on Wednesday NZT.China is set to release a suite of economic indicators this coming week, including Q4 GDP growth figures, as well as data on exports, imports, industrial production, and retail sales. Later today we expect their new yuan loan data for December, anticipated to be weak again.But first over the weekend, the US economy added +256,000 jobs in December, much more than the +212,000 in November, and way more than the market expectations of +160,000. Their jobless rate fell. These are the headline rates. The actual change was a tiny fall to 160.5 mln employed workers, but actually a much less reduction than seasonal factors would have indicated.For all of 2024, they had a rise of +2.2 mln payroll jobs and for the four years of the Biden presidency a rise of +16.9 mln new jobs. In the prior four years, there was a loss of -2.6 mln jobs.The wider employed labour force only grew by +11.7 mln in the past four years as many people transitioned from unincorporated self-employment back on to company payrolls. In the prior four years, the wider employed labour force shrank by -2.2 mln people. Any way you cut it, the past four years has been a golden period for American employment.Average weekly earnings rose +3.5% in 2024, up +20.0% over the past four years. In the prior four years they rose +18.0%.But Americans are increasingly fearful of the year ahead. The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey in January dropped because of surging worries over the future path of inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.3%, the highest in eight months, from 2.8% in December. This is only the third time in the last four years that long-run expectations have shown such a large one-month rise. Consumers know they will be paying much more if tariffs are jerked higher soon.The financial markets also reacted to the jobs data and the impending impact of tariffs. Wall Street equities were -1.5% lower on Friday, bond yields have jumped, and a risk-off defensive tone spread which saw the USD rise. That's all because the strong jobs data argues for a Fed rate cut pause. Their bar for rate cuts has risen noticeably with this data. The Fed next meets on January 30 (NZT).Prior to this jobs data release, the latest Atlanta Fed Q4-2024 economic growth estimate was +2.7%. The subsequent strong labour market data may see some upside to that.Canada also reported their December labour force data today and that was strong too. Employment there rose +90,900 with more than half that as full-time jobs. Their jobs growth was far higher than the +25,000 expected and the +50,700 in November. This surge also calls into question whether the Bank of Canada will actually cut rates when they next meet, also on January 30 (NZT).The latest Japanese household spending survey indicated another fall in November, part of a pattern of monthly falls since early 2023. But this one was a little different because it was the smallest surveyed fall in the series and a much 'improved' result that from both prior months and from what was expected. Some see a turning point.In China, in a surprise move, their central bank said it would suspend treasury bond purchases in the open market due to a supply shortage, effective immediately. They will "resume purchases at an appropriate time based on market conditions". The move comes amid repeated warnings from them about bubble risks in their overheated bond market, where long-term yields have plummeted to record lows. Over the past year, yields on key bonds, including the benchmark 10-year government bond, have reached unprecedented lows as investors flock to safe-haven assets. This shift is largely driven by ongoing economic uncertainties linked to a prolonged property market slump. In December, Chinese leaders signaled further rate cuts, fueling another surge in bond market activity. This pushed the 10-year treasury bond yield to an all-time low of 1.6% earlier this month, exacerbating concerns over market exuberance.Their yields recovered after this move but the recovery didn't hold. But at least they arrested the decline and the day ended unchanged.Chinese analysts are expecting bad news coming from the series of large zombie property developers that have been holding on with government funding support. But most of them seem to have reached the end of the line, and a series of default-into-administration events are now anticipated. Investors will take a bath. None of this will help the economic mood.In India, their industrial production showed a small improvement in November, up +5.2% from a year ago with manufacturing up +5.8%. Both results were better than October and better than expected.In Australia, their Federal Government accounts for the five months to November show that tax receipts are surging. That is cutting into their budget deficit for the year quickly. At the current rate the full year budget deficit may halve. If the trend continues, they even have a chance of posting a surplus. The reason for the improved outlook is twofold: their jobs market is buoyant generating higher income tax deductions than expected. And their currency is falling vs the USD, and as their mineral exports are sold in USD that is generating an unexpected rise in royalty receipts (and higher corporate income tax receipts).And we should probably note that coal prices are falling still, now down to a three year low and where they were in May 2021. And that is despite a very cold spell in the Northern Hemisphere at present.The UST 10yr yield is still at just on 4.76%, and up +7 bps from Friday in the jobs-data reaction. A week ago it was at 4.59% so a +16 bps rise from then.The price of gold will start today at US$2690/oz and up +US$1 from Saturday and up +US$50 from a week ago.Oil prices are unchanged from Saturday at just on US$76.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$79.50. That is the same as the weekly gain. The recent rise comes from fear of the effect of new sanctions activity.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 55.6 USc and unchanged from Saturday but down -50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.7 and up +10 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,909 and up +1.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

US inflation report to take center stage as dollar remains well bid. China's economic policies to come under scrutiny as Q4 GDP on tap. UK CPI and GDP figures to be watched as pound's pain worsens.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

With Friday's December Employment Report waiting in the wings, it's fair to ask what happened to the December JOLTS Report. Investors are questioning whether we'll see continued growth from December. What does Q4 GDP at 2.7% really mean? Understanding the data and reading the January Barometer (so far). Lance shares his screen in commenting on sector rotations. Dan Niles' predciton of a 20% correction this year: Lance's reality check. Crash vs correction. Lance discusses the importance of an investing process: Rules to offset emotional bias. Fundamentals matter over the long term. SEG-1: What Happened in the December JOLTS Report? SEG-2: Sector Rotations: What's Hot, What's Not, & Why SEG-3: 20% Correction by Summer: Possible or Probable? SEG-4: The Most Important Lesson for Investors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56z2LmMIvrQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is the January Barometer Broken?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLsfGRv_8pI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Curb Your Enthusiasm" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRg1uqnrYH4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JanuaryBarometer #Finance2025 #InvestSmart #EconomicOutlook #MarketReversal #InvestmentInsights #StockMarket2025 #EconomicForecast #FinancialStrategies #WealthManagement #MarketTrends #Complacency #MarketRisk #OverBought #OverSold #20DMA #50DMA #MakretRally #Expectations #MarketIndicators #CurbExpectations #StockMarket2025 #Expectations #MarketIndicators #CurbExpectations #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

With Friday's December Employment Report waiting in the wings, it's fair to ask what happened to the December JOLTS Report. Investors are questioning whether we'll see continued growth from December. What does Q4 GDP at 2.7% really mean? Understanding the data and reading the January Barometer (so far). Lance shares his screen in commenting on sector rotations. Dan Niles' predciton of a 20% correction this year: Lance's reality check. Crash vs correction. Lance discusses the importance of an investing process: Rules to offset emotional bias. Fundamentals matter over the long term.  SEG-1: What Happened in the December JOLTS Report? SEG-2: Sector Rotations: What's Hot, What's Not, & Why  SEG-3: 20% Correction by Summer: Possible or Probable? SEG-4: The Most Important Lesson for Investors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56z2LmMIvrQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is the January Barometer Broken?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLsfGRv_8pI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Curb Your Enthusiasm" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRg1uqnrYH4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #JanuaryBarometer #Finance2025 #InvestSmart #EconomicOutlook #MarketReversal #InvestmentInsights #StockMarket2025 #EconomicForecast #FinancialStrategies #WealthManagement #MarketTrends #Complacency #MarketRisk #OverBought #OverSold #20DMA #50DMA #MakretRally #Expectations #MarketIndicators #CurbExpectations #StockMarket2025 #Expectations #MarketIndicators #CurbExpectations #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The U.S. economy ended the first quarter on strong footing with most economic indicators reporting growth. The final estimate of Q4 GDP showed the economy expanded at a 3.4% annualized rate, bringing the 2023 full year growth to 3.1%. Despite restrictive monetary policy, economic growth continues to outperform. Job growth remains strong, and inflation continues to moderate. The equity markets are doing well, as the S&P 500 is up more than 10% so far this year. As American consumers and businesses continue to adapt to life in a new and higher interest rate paradigm, the economy has not yet shown signs of deteriorating.Multifamily fundamentals continue to increase as we move into the second quarter, however, the pace of growth is not fast enough to keep up with last year's results. All key indicators remain negative on a year-over-year basis at the national level. Furthermore, the divergence between markets with strong performance and markets searching for a bottom continues to widen as the effect of new supply weighs heavily on key markets in the sunbelt.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Heading into the long holiday weekend, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer wrap up what has been a bullish Q1: The S&P 500 poised for its best start to a year since 2019 – and major indices on track for a fifth straight month of gains. Cramer explains why he believes it's time to "let Mag 7 rest." Home Depot to buy SRS Distribution in an $18.25 billion deal, marking HD's largest acquisition ever. Also in focus: Sentencing day for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, Q4 GDP upside surprise,RH surges, Walgreens shares volatile post-earnings, another Apple downgrade, Fed Governor Waller still sees "no rush" to cut rates. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

JD and Joel discuss hotter-than-expected inflation data, Peter's recent podcast, TikTok, Twitter, and price action. OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -Gold is trading at $2155 (down $23 or about 1% on the week). -Silver is trading at $25.17 (up $0.87 or 3.5% on the week). -Q4 GDP grew $334 billion as national debt grew $834 billion, more than twice as much. -US House passes bill banning Tiktok unless it is sold. -Michael Saylor's wild Bitcoin speculation. -Peter Schiff reaches 1 million Twitter followers. -Peter Schiff's latest podcast. -Quote from Hayek: The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's economic precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms. Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit schiffgold.com/news. SchiffGold on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews SchiffGold on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: https://www.schiffgold.com

APAC stocks traded with a downbeat mood with most major indices pressured after Friday's tech-led declines in the US.Japan's revised Q4 GDP data missed expectations but showed the economy averted a technical recession.Chinese inflation data showed a return to acceleration in consumer prices; CPI YY (Feb) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.8%).DXY sits on a 102 handle with FX markets broadly contained. USD/JPY is just below the 147 mark.European equity futures indicate a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed down 0.3% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Employment Trends, Japanese Corporate Goods Price, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Jim Cramer and David Faber engaged in a wide-ranging discussion about Apple reportedly scrapping its decade-longEV project in favor of AI initiatives. Jim offered his take on Apple shares falling 5% so far this year.The anchors also reacted to a report stating UnitedHealth is the subject of a U.S. Department of Justice antitrust probe.Also in focus: Bitcoin surpasses $60,000 for the first time since 2021, Q4 GDP growth revised a tick lower, eBay among the earnings winners, Cramer explains "Real AI" versus "Joke AI." Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Ben, Tom, and Andrew discuss a bevy of economic data including the revised Q4 GDP data, durable goods orders, and upcoming core PCE, the anti-trust case against UNH, AAPL speaking with the DOJ, and Tom's soapbox on locking in rates. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

US equities ended lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 6bps, 17bps, and 55bps respectively. Very quiet session with nothing specific behind the pullback. First revision of Q4 GDP marked down to 3.2% pace; Personal consumption marked up to 3.0%; Q4 GDP price index marked up to 1.6%; and Q4 core PCE up to 2.1%. Busy in terms of Fedspeak but not much new, with governors reiterating patience, but cuts likely later this year.

In a week when many Chinese markets are out for the celebration of the year of the dragon, earnings begin to tail off from the recent flurry. There are still some areas of interest as UK banks begin to surface, beginning with NatWest on Friday. This will be followed by HSBC, Barclays and Lloyds Banking the following week. In the US there are still some all-sessions stocks to watch including Q4 earnings from Coca-Cola, AirBnB and Lyft, interestingly, all on Tuesday. Economic data from both the consumer and business on confidence, could provide some further downside for the beleaguered Australian dollar. In the UK, by the end of the week we'll have a pretty good idea if the Bank of England will cut rates at its next meeting on 21 March. There's jobs data, consumer prices, producer prices, retail prices, GDP and retail sales. Retail sales also appears in the US along with Q4 GDP.

The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

US equity futures are indicating a slightly lower open as of 05:00 ET. This follows mixed markets in Asia, while European equity markets are higher. A surprise reduction in the US Treasury's Q1 borrowing estimates has helped dampen bond supply concerns. The Eurozone has avoided a recession, with Q4 GDP at 0.0%, although Germany is in a technical recession and France is stagnating.Companies Mentioned: Boeing

Q4 GDP was released on Thursday, it was 3.3%. Far higher than the 2% economists expected. However, the great number hides a bigger problem with the American people. In this episode, we dive into the underlying numbers enabling the US Economy to keep growing but costing individuals their freedom. Check out the Rambling Mind Newsletter Find me on more platforms: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠beacons.ai/kelechiwuaba⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ If you have questions email me at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠kelechi@ramblingmindshow.com --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/ramblingmind/message

Take a bow consumers, you powered Q4 GDP. Join Dave Spano and Brian Jacobsen for our Week-in-Review. They'll cover the latest in earnings and what might be the end of scattered rolling recessions.  Learn more about our Investment Committee, election year myths, Annex Ignite, and why planning for life 'in' retirement sometimes falls short. 

NLW explores the most recent macro news stories, including a look at Q4 GDP which came in stronger than expected. Swan also announces Swan Mining. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

NewsRadio WFLA White House Correspondent Jon Decker recaps this week in politics, including 2024 presidential election developments and the battle over the border. ABC News Contributor & Investopedia Editor-in-Chief Caleb Silver breaks down new reports on Q4 GDP and inflation, including what the data tells us about the state of the economy. NewsRadio WFLA National Correspondent Rory O'Neill discusses the new method used in an Alabama execution and a study's findings on the dangers of sitting too much at work.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48LulK1 An overall positive trading day without a lot of volatility behind what was a pretty decent batch of economic data. The Dow was up well over 200 points, and the S&P 500 notched a sixth day of gains. We had the first read on Q4 GDP come in significantly higher than expected at 3.3%, with the consumer powering almost two percent of it. Both durable goods orders and jobless claims came in just enough below expectations that bonds also rallied, with the 10 YR down six basis points. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discussed Tesla shares taking a hit after the EV maker posted weaker-than-expected Q4 results and said it sees "notably lower" growth in 2024. The anchors reacted to what CEO Elon Musk said on Tesla's earnings. A CEO doubleheader on the show: Southwest's Bob Jordan on earnings and MAX delivery plans in wake of Boeing's recent problems – and ServiceNow's Bill McDermott on his company's quarterly beat and riding the AI wave with shares at all-time highs. Also in focus: The first reading of Q4 GDP beats expectations with 3.3% growth, Humana tumbles again and drags its health insurance rivals lower, IBM and Comcast surge on earnings, the chip sector rally rolls on. Disclosure: Comcast is the parent of NBCUniversal, of which CNBC is a unit.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

US equities finished higher in Thursday's trading, ending back near session highs, with the S&P and Nasdaq logging their sixth straight session of gains. Today's main themes include soft- to no-landing support from macro data, a lower rate backdrop, mixed earnings, continued China bounce, FOMC and QRA waiting games and breadth scrutiny. Q4 GDP grew at an annualized 3.3% pace, well ahead of the Street's 2% expectation.

The first estimate to  Q4 GDP came in much stronger than expected, fueling early positive sentiment. Winners beat losers on the Nasdaq by about 3 to 2, but the ratio was nearly 3 to 1 positive on the NYSE. Caterpillar topped a new buy point; Adobe is near highs as it builds a new base; Pinterest is holding support at its 10-week line.

US equities ended higher today in a fairly quiet trading period with the S&P 500 locking in a second-straight record close. The Fed and economic calendars are quieter this week, though the market does get two looks at core PCE inflation trends with the first estimate for Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the personal income and spending report for December on Friday. Earnings will ramp up with 75 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. In macro headlines, the market continues to deal with a ton of moving pieces from high-profile themes.

This episode discusses the perplexing contrast between a robust economy and persistently low consumer sentiment over the past 18 months. Recently, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a significant 13% increase in the first half of January, marking a 29% surge since November – the most substantial two-month rise since 1991. The positive shift is attributed to a decline in gas prices, with the correlation between fuel costs and consumer sentiment highlighted. Investors experienced a positive turn, leading to a 1.2% rise in the S&P 500 and a 2.3% jump in the Nasdaq Composite, reversing losses earlier in the week. The earnings season commenced with a weak start, but expectations are for an improving narrative as more companies release results. Economic focus includes the preliminary Q4 GDP reading in the U.S. and global flash PMIs. The blog also mentions upcoming monetary policy statements and interest rate decisions from major central banks, along with a blackout period for Federal Reserve members ahead of the next FOMC meeting. The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:12), we have Q4 GDP, January purchasing manager index (PMI) and key inflation data. In Europe (09:15), the focus will be on the ECB policy meeting, a German IFO report and PMI data. Then it's the latest from Asia (12:29), with central bank meetings in Japan and Malaysia, the Korea Q4 GDP report, industrial production data for Taiwan and Singapore, and an inflation report in Singapore too.

Why did Charles Schwab's stock drop after reporting its earnings result? What are 2 cybersecurity stocks to watch? And what's China's latest Q4 GDP numbers? Michelle Martin and Ryan Huang unpack it all. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyGoogleTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Intro + 12k Subs0:42 Vilsack and China Corn Demand3:26 Wheat Rally6:30 SAF Guidance7:57 Ethanol Production Update9:10 OPEC Cuts?10:27 GDP

In a huge NATO shakeup, Poland says it will not arm Ukraine moving forward. This comes as Volodymyr Zelenskyy pleaded with the UN for more support against Russia. The question is: Will more nations follow or will some funnel more money to Ukraine as a result? Meantime, tensions between Poland and Belarus are heating up. Dr. Jerome Corsi breaks down what's happening on The Truth CentralAlso:The Clinton Foundation is salivating over potential gains from "Ukraine Humanitarian Aid" moneyThe US is primed to see a big GDP downturn in Q4, which will soon hit most of the worldWhy the push for EVs is the most ill-conceived campaign in modern historyChina's fighter jets around Taiwan are not there just for showGet your FREE copy of Dr. Corsi's new book with Swiss America CEO Dean Heskin, How the Coming Global Crash Will Create a Historic Gold Rush by calling: 800-519-6268/Follow Dr. Jerome Corsi on Twitter: @corsijerome1Our website: https://www.thetruthcentral.comOur link to where to get the Marco Polo 650-Page Book on the Hunter Biden laptop & Biden family crimes free online: https://www.thetruthcentral.com/marco-polo-publishes-650-page-book-on-hunter-biden-laptop-biden-family-crimes-available-free-online/Our Sponsors:MyVitalC: https://www.thetruthcentral.com/myvitalc-ess60-in-organic-olive-oil/Swiss America: https://www.swissamerica.com/offer/CorsiRMP.phpThe MacMillan Agency: https://www.thetruthcentral.com/the-macmillan-agency/Pro Rapid Review: https://prorrt.com/thetruthcentralmembers/RITA: https://members.sayrita.com/truthcentralreaders/Volkswagen plans job cuts due to low EV demandBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-truth-central-with-dr-jerome-corsi--5810661/support.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 1st, 2023… new PCE numbers show inflation is weakening, where investors are reaping the biggest returns for single-family rentals, and how much apartment renters are saving if they don't buy.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and a favorable report on inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released a report on the February Personal Consumption Index, or PCE, and it shows a mild .3% increase. That's down from a .6% increase in January, and suggests that the Fed may be getting the upper hand on high prices. With this report, the yearly rate dropped from 5.3% to 5%, which is the lowest it's been in more than a year and a half. (1)   Senior Federal Reserve officials are suggesting that another quarter point rate hike is still needed, before they call for a pause. That would be decided at the Fed's next meeting in May as Fed officials also weigh the risk of further interest rate hikes on the banking system.   The government revised their Q4 GDP for a third time. It was initially 2.9%. Last month, it was lowered to 2.7%. The government is now saying it was 2.6%. As MarketWatch reported, the GDP was reduced because data shows weaker consumer spending, and a decline in corporate profits. (2)   The weekly jobless report shows 198,000 people applied for benefits. That's a three-week high, but it's still a very low number and indicates that the labor market remains strong in the face of high-interest rates and a potential recession. (3)   Reports on housing include the latest Case-Shiller home price report. The national index fell .2% in January, while the 20-city index was down .4%. Year-over-year home prices are still 2.5% higher, but that's down from 4.6% last month. (4)   Home buyers seem to be warming up to the idea of higher mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors reports that pending sales were up for a third month in a row. They rose .8% in February. That's after a huge 8.1% surge in January. If you compare the numbers to one year ago, they are down 21.1%. (5)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates didn't move much in the last week, but they remain at a lower level than recent highs. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down one point to 6.32%, which is essentially the same as the previous week. The 15-year dropped 12 points to 5.56%. (6)   In other news making headlines…   More Sellers Sitting on the Sidelines   While it seems the spring buying season is producing a surge in buyers, and mortgage rates have come down slightly, sellers are still in a wait-and-see mode. Realtor.com says that new listings fell again in March, and are down 20% compared to a year ago. The active inventory is about 60% higher year-over-year, but that's because homes are taking longer to sell.   Realtor.com says that homes are now sitting on the market for an average of 54 days. That's up from an average of 36 days last spring. Chief economist, Danielle Hale, says shoppers are very sensitive to mortgage rates and they “only jump back in the market when rates dip.” She says rates will play a big role in whether the housing market “bumps along or picks up speed this year.”   Best Counties for Single-Family Rentals   If you're trying to decide where you might get the best returns for a single-family rental, real estate data firm ATTOM just issued its Q1 2023 Single-Family Rental Market report. ATTOM analyzed 212 U.S. counties with a population of at least 100,000.    The report shows the overall single-family rental yield increasing from last year in 91% of those counties. It was 6.7% last year, and rises to 7.5% this year. Rents are rising faster than home prices in many counties. CEO, Rob Barber says: “Rents for single-family homes are growing while prices have flattened out, which has helped boost yields for landlords for the first time in at least several years.”   Three of the top five counties for rental returns are in Florida, including River County, Florida, in the Sebastian-Vero Beach area; Collier County, Florida, in the Naples area; and Charlotte County, Florida, in the Punta Gorda area. A few other counties with high rental yields include Chicago's Cook County, Cleveland's Cuyahoga County, and West Palm Beach's Palm Beach County.    Looking at the top 50 counties for rental returns: 29 are in the South, 13 are in the Midwest, eight are in the Northeast, and none are in the West.   Big Savings for Apartment Renters   The savings gap is growing for people who rent an apartment instead of buying a home. The National Multifamily Housing Council says it's now more than $1,000 dollars more expensive per month to buy a home than it is to rent an apartment – $1,176 to be exact. That's the widest gap in 15 years. (9)   Apartment rent growth has been slowing. It was only up 2.6% in March and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. Vacancies are also returning to normal levels. They are currently at 6.6%. That's up from 6.4% in February. (10)   That's it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. You'll also find market data at our website, along with investing education and opportunities. You need to become a member to access some of our information, but it's free to join and will only take a few minutes.    We also ask that our listeners subscribe to the podcast, if you haven't done so already. And if you have a minute, please leave us a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-softens-in-february-pce-finds-785c116e?mod=home-page   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-gdp-in-fourth-quarter-trimmed-again-to-2-6-on-weaker-consumer-spending-663e9a5b?mod=search_headline   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-to-three-week-high-of-198-000-but-layoffs-still-extremely-low-3efde979?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-price-rises-slow-again-in-january-with-western-markets-leading-declines-2ea97cfb?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-pending-home-sales-rise-for-the-third-month-in-a-row-in-february-18c2a392?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/more-home-sellers-are-sitting-out-of-the-spring-housing-market.html   8 - https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/attom-2023-single-family-rental-market-report/   9 - https://www.globest.com/2023/03/31/renting-an-apartment-is-now-1175-cheaper-per-month-than-owning-a-home/   10 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/rent-growth-drops-to-pre-covid-levels.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c&par=realestate

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If you've been following the news lately, you might have noticed that there seem to be a lot of mixed signals about the state of the property market. While some commentators are warning of a looming property market crash due to rising interest rates, the statistics that came out at the beginning of the month from all the major property research houses suggest that our property markets are looking for a floor. In today's Big Picture podcasts Pete Wargent we discuss the outlook for the Australian economy and our property markets and the latest economic figures that came out this week including housing approvals, the monthly CPI figures, and our Q4 GDP figures. Links and Resources: Metropole's Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au Pete Wargent's new Podcast Pete Wargent's blog Join Pete Wargent and me at Wealth Retreat 2023 – click here to find out more Shownotes plus more here: Is it good news or bad news for property? Big Picture Podcast with Pete Wargent

The guys discuss Q4 GDP as numbers are soon to be released. CVX announces $75b stock buyback which would account for nearly 25% of all outstanding stock. Earnings wrap-up shows deflationary forces starting to roost. Earnings also show semiconductor softness, enterprise software holding up, bumbling management, and black boxes requiring pure faith.For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

Catalyst watch for the week of January 29. Seeking Alpha Senior Managing News Editor Kim Khan speaks with Julie Morgan about the upcoming FOMC meeting and gives a preview of Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) earnings. In addition, Khan discusses Q4 GDP and what analysts are saying about a recession in 2023. Our links:Wall Street Breakfast: seekingalpha.com/wsbSeeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast brings the top news to investors every morning. Released by 8:00am ET, it's all the news you need to know for your market day.Seeking Alpha Premium: https://seekingalpha.com/premium/getting-startedA comprehensive set of features and analysis that helps take the guesswork out of your investing decisions. Get the bottom-line on any stock or ETF with our Premium tools.Alpha Picks: https://seekingalpha.com/alpha-picks/subscribeAlpha Picks gives you two top stock picks each month, sifted from Seeking Alpha's analysis of thousands of stocks. We do the work. You reap the rewards.Twitter: https://twitter.com/WallStBreakfastShow links:Alphabet: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOGOil Markets: Geopolitics and China's Reopening with Jennifer Warren (Podcast)

On a day full of earnings news, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer led off the show with Tesla: Shares up sharply on record quarterly results and CEO Elon Musk's optimism about demand. Is the worst over for the stock? A CEO doubleheader: Southwest Airlines' Bob Jordan on everything from the carrier's fourth-quarter loss to its operational disruptions that resulted in a holiday travel meltdown -- and ServiceNow's Bill McDermott on his company's earnings and the cloud. Also in focus: Economic growth slows to an annual rate of 2.9% in Q4 but slightly beats estimates, earnings winners and losers, Chevron's $75 billion share buyback program, IBM cutting 3,900 jobs, plus Cramer's message on investing in chip stocks.

Thanks to Richey May, a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, technology, and other services in the mortgage industry and in banking.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 7th, 2023... home loan rates are hitting home prices, rent growth slows on apartments and single-family rentals, and lumber prices have returned to pre-pandemic levels.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. Federal Reserve officials are seeing a long-term need for higher interest rates, according to the minutes of their last meeting. They raised the short-term rate by a half point at that meeting to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. That's after four three-quarter point rate hikes during past meetings. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari sees the federal funds rate going as high as 5.4%, or higher if inflation doesn't settle back down. Their preferred inflation gauge showed a core rate of 4.7% in November, which is well above their target rate of 2%. (1)   At this point, the economy remains strong with a Q4 GDP of 3.9% and a job market that is running hotter than the Fed would like to see. Last week, unemployment applications fell to a 3-½ month low of 204,000. As reported by MarketWatch, jobless claims were down in 30 of the 53 states and U.S. territories. Continuing claims were also lower by 24,000 to a total of 1.69 million. This kind of data shows that the economy continues to grow as the Fed raises rates to slow the economy and tamp down inflation. (2)   The latest report on job growth shows that U.S. companies added 223,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate dipped from 3.6% to 3.5%. That's more proof of economic growth, but the report also shows that wage growth is slowing down. As MarketWatch reports, hourly wage growth was only up .3% in December to an annual rate of 4.6%. That's down from 4.8% last month. (3)   The latest report on job openings shows that they decreased slightly from October to November, to a total of 10.5 million. It also shows that workers are quitting in high numbers. Both are signs of a strong job market. (4)   We have a bit of housing market news. The National Association of Home Builders released its construction spending report for November which shows a .2% increase. That's higher than a forecast by Wall Street analysts who expected a .4% drop. Private residential construction was down half a point while private non-residential spending was up almost two points. (5)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage applications were down last week, as rates moved higher. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 6 basis points to 6.48%. The 15-year was up 5 points to 5.73%. (6)   It's been a roller coaster ride for mortgage rates. Rates were subsiding at the beginning of December, but they surged again during the second half of the month. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage application volume was down 13.2% during the last two weeks of the year. For refinancing loans, there was a bigger drop of 16.3%. (7)   In other news making headlines...   High Loan Rates Hit Home Prices   Higher mortgage rates are taking a bite out of home price growth. According to CoreLogic data, annual home price growth dropped below 10% for the first time in almost two years. It was down 8.6% and is now 2.5% lower than it was last spring and falling. Analysts expect to see “negative” home price growth sometime this spring, before it bounces back into the 2 to 3% range, next fall. (8)   The Sun Belt states are showing the highest home price growth, with Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia leading that list. Washington, D.C. is at the bottom, with a current year-over-year reading of 1.2%.   Rent Growth Declines Faster than Normal   Rent growth is also slowing down. Apartment List's National Rent Report shows that apartment rent growth was down in December, for a fourth month in a row to an annual rate of 3.8%. That's a far cry from the 17.6% rate of growth in 2021. (9)   Single-family rent growth is showing more strength. According to data from CoreLogic, single-family rents are still growing at an annual rate of 8.8%. That's the lowest rate of appreciation we've seen in more than a year, but it's also about three times higher than it was before the pandemic.   Lumber Prices Come Back to Earth   Lumber prices have finally come back down to earth. According to industry experts, they are now around $375 for 1,000 board feet of framing lumber. That's cheaper than pre-pandemic levels of around $400, and much less than a pandemic peak of $1,733. (10)   Lumber prices are usually the highest in April and May so some of the price drop is due to the season. But the experts are not expecting to see another huge run-up in prices next Spring.   That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   You can find out more about real estate investing as a member of RealWealth. It's free to join at newsforinvestors.com.    Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/fed-minutes-december-2022-.html   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-to-3-1-2-month-low-of-204-000-in-sign-labor-market-still-too-hot-for-the-fed-11672926160?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-adds-223-000-jobs-in-december-and-jobless-rate-matches-55-year-low-of-3-5-11673012538?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-job-openings-stay-high-at-10-5-million-and-show-labor-market-still-very-strong-11672845265?mod=mw_latestnews   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-rises-by-0-2-in-november-11672758912?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/mortgage-demand-plunges-interest-rates-rise.html   8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/home-price-gains-weaken-november.html   9 -  https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/rents-continue-to-decline-more-than   10 - https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/update-framing-lumber-prices-down-67.html