The Cable

With reports that Ukraine is surrounded by some 140,000 Russian troops, the possibility of a major military conflict in Europe is closer than ever since the end of World War II. There's been no lack of speculation about whether President Vladimir Putin intends to invade Ukraine again and why. But is what he wants the same as what most Russians want? The answer is complicated, with serious implications for the Western response. Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, the country's only independent polling agency, joins The Cable from Moscow to explain.

With vital voting rights legislation stalled in the Senate and Republican politicians continuing to cast doubt on President Biden's election, the United States is heading into pivotal midterm elections later this year. Liz Hempowicz and Bruce Stokes join The Cable to discuss the danger America's democratic institutions face and what must be done to protect them. Liz Hempowicz: Director of Public Policy, Project on Government Oversight Bruce Stokes: Visiting GMF Senior Fellow; Executive Director, Transatlantic Task Force: Together or Alone? Choices and Strategies for Transatlantic Relations for 2021 and Beyond  

President Joe Biden is set to host the first-ever Summit for Democracy, part of his promise to reassert democratic values around the world. But with Russia and China panning the very idea of values-based diplomacy, can the event's more than 110 participants prove them wrong? Norman Eisen and Alina Polyakova are co-authors of a new democracy playbook released December 6, together with The Cable's co-host Jonathan Katz. They talk to Gregory Feifer about their action plan and what chances they believe the summit has to succeed.

Lithuania shares a border with two hostile autocratic neighbors, Belarus and Russia. If that weren't enough, the small Baltic democracy is taking on China, too. It's a role model for confident, democratic leadership in the 21st century, and wants to play an important role at the Summit for Democracy in early December. But will the United States and other powerful democracies come together with tangible support even as authoritarians and populists seem to be on the rise? Lithuanian Vice-Minister Mantas Adomėnas and US Assistant Deputy Secretary of State Kara McDonald joined The Cable to discuss the challenges and hopes for the summit. Transcript here: https://www.icwa.org/the-cable-podcast-lithuania-democracy/

The Pandora Papers leak exposed some of the shadowy offshore finances the world's wealthiest and most powerful people use to hide vast fortunes. But it only scratched the surface of an entrenched global financial system rife with loopholes. So what must be done to combat the illicit practices helping drive massive inequities and shake liberal democracies around the globe? Karen Greenaway, who investigated financial crimes at the FBI, and Drew Sullivan, founder of the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), join The Cable to explain.

Fiona Hill made global headlines when she testified during an impeachment inquiry against then-President Donald Trump in 2019. Now the former senior director for European and Russian affairs on Trump's National Security Council has published a new memoir tracing her journey from a hardscrabble childhood in northeastern England to the White House. She joins Greg and Jonathan to describe what her experiences, including in the Trump Administration, reflect about the most pressing questions facing liberal democracy today.

When Russians vote in parliamentary elections later this week, the results are expected to be a foregone conclusion. Still, opposition groups are campaigning across the country despite the Kremlin's unprecedented crackdown on civil society, independent media and free speech, including the imprisonment of the opposition leader, Alexei Navalny. His former chief of staff Leonid Volkov—one of the architects of Navalny's “smart voting” strategy—joins Greg and Jonathan to explain what's at stake for the country and the future of President Vladimir Putin's regime.

Joe Biden is seeking to renew the transatlantic relationship during a number of major summit meetings in Europe on his first foreign trip as US president. But after four years of Donald Trump's assault on Washington's closest alliances, what does public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic think about the future of US leadership, and what does it mean for hopes of addressing some of Western countries' biggest joint challenges? Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer and Irene Bramm join Greg and Jonathan to discuss their new Transatlantic Trends survey from the German Marshall Fund.

President Joe Biden has been busy with his overarching foreign policy aim of mending ties with America's closest allies. Progress has been made during a series of summit meetings in Europe, but what are the underlying challenges ahead? We recorded two important conversations before the summits: Constanze Stelzenmüller speaks to Greg about the transatlantic alliance's fundamental issues, followed by a discussion with Erik Brattberg and Jonathan about a democracy agenda and other priorities.

When the Czech Republic accused Russia last month of staging an explosion at an ammunition depot in the country that killed two people in 2014, it provided shocking new evidence of the Kremlin's secret war against its perceived rivals in the West, prompting a major rift in Czech relations with Russia. The scandal broke just days after the sacking of Czech Foreign Minister Tomas Petricek, who frequently warned against risks posed by the Kremlin. He joins Greg and Jonathan to discuss the fallout from latest developments and what Europe and the US must do to address the challenge.

“The most lethal and persistent terrorism-related threat to the homeland today.” That's how US Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has described domestic extremism. It's a mounting threat to democracy and security in Europe, too, and elsewhere as hardline views enter the mainstream. Susan Corke—Intelligence Project Director at the Southern Poverty Law Center—joins Greg and Jonathan to describe the fast-evolving threat and how to address it, together with Sasha Havlicek, a pioneer in combatting hate, conflict and extremism.

The last few months have seen unprecedented repression in Vladimir Putin's Russia, with a wave of arrests and disappearances among Kremlin critics and international alarm over the deteriorating health of the imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny. At the same time, Russian troops are massing on the border with Ukraine, sending Western countries scrambling to figure out Moscow's intentions. Those developments are playing out ahead of parliamentary elections set for September, amid the government's dismal response to the coronavirus pandemic and plummeting public opinion ratings for the Kremlin's United Russia party. The leading opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza joins Jonathan and Greg to explain what's taking place in Russia, priorities for the opposition and what Western countries must do to address Putin's mounting threat.

With the Biden administration promising to advance democracy at home and abroad after four years of backsliding, what's Congress's role? Congressman David Price and Ambassador Norm Eisen join moderator Reta Jo Lewis in an important conversation about strengthening the US democracy agenda, including President Biden's proposed 2021 democracy summit. This podcast was recorded from a live GMF webinar broadcast on March 11.

The US and European Union are struggling to respond to a mounting political crisis in Georgia that boiled over in the former Soviet republic with the arrest of the opposition leader Nika Melia last month. Leading former diplomats, including The Cable's Jonathan Katz, have issued a statement calling for his release. The Georgian parliament's former First Deputy Chair Tamar Chugoshvili joins Jonathan and Greg for an important conversation explaining the crisis and what to do about it with former US Ambassador to Georgia Ian Kelly, who's co-authored a new report on the case for supporting Georgia.  

A Russian court has sentenced the country's main opposition leader Alexei Navalny to two-and-a-half years in prison on bogus charges after he threw down an unprecedented gauntlet to President Vladimir Putin. Olga Shorina, Kiryl Sukhotski and Pavel Butorin join Greg to discuss Navalny, Putin and where the country is heading.

With the inauguration of Joe Biden as US president on Wednesday, work to restore America's battered democratic institutions and its international role is beginning in earnest. The new co-directors of the Transatlantic Democracy Working Group Jonathan Katz and Jamie Fly join Susan and Greg to discuss what Washington's priorities for reinvigorating the transatlantic alliance should be and how the TDWG plans to help.

The rise of authoritarian kleptocrats around the world may be the main geopolitical issue of our time, and the threat to liberal democracy can't be overstated. But although the assault on democratic institutions in the United States, Europe and elsewhere is on public display, most of us see only the tip of the iceberg. Tom Burgis, Luke Harding and Tom Firestone join Susan and Greg to explain the massive scale of corruption and vast flows of illegal money around the globe they are helping expose, which normally surface only occasionally thanks to diligent investigations or leaks such as the Panama Papers.

With the possibility of a new US administration taking office next year, the question of how to approach Russia is looming increasingly larger in Washington. Opposition politician Vladimir Milov and national security expert Evelyn Farkas join Susan and Greg to discuss how the opposition is coping after Alexei Navalny's poisoning and how should Western countries must deal with President Vladimir Putin.

Belarus has been in the spotlight for the past two months as protesters continue to battle Alexander Lukakshenka's 26-year-old regime. But dissent isn't new in the country. It's had a vibrant, if small, civil society and a cultural scene that's had to become resourceful, creative and resilient to navigate the state's repression. Natalia Kaliada and Dragana Kaurin join Susan and Greg to discuss underground theater and digital innovation.  

Belarus is at a tipping point as the authoritarian President Alexandr Lukashenka's regime crumbles under the weight of mass popular protests. The European Union has pledged support for the opposition, which is preparing for a transition, but Lukashenka is clinging to power. And with fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin will prop up his Belarusian ally, what comes next is anyone's guess. Joining Susan and Greg to discuss what's going on, possible future scenarios and what Western countries must urgently do is David Kramer, Franak Viachorka and Vlad Kobets. First, ICWA managing editor Dan Peleschuk describes his arrest in Minsk during a brutal crackdown by the security forces.

The internet has changed how democracy functions. With digital platforms fueling divisiveness and enabling manipulation by individual bad actors and states alike, liberal democracies are struggling to keep up. Marietje Schaake and Tomicah Tilleman join Susan and Greg to discuss how to ensure the right architecture to guarantee the free exchange of ideas, fair voting and other key conditions for democracy.

Europeans have looked on in disbelief and dismay as America's alliances with its most important transatlantic allies have come under attack by an isolationist president who sees personal political gain in undermining common liberal democratic values. But after the Black Lives Matters protests and with hopes for transformation in US politics after November's presidential election, Reinhard Bütikofer and Ben Haddad join Susan and Greg to discuss what Europeans think of the United States now and how they see America's future role in a changing world.

Vladimir Putin has done virtually everything to ensure he'll be able to remain Russian president for life after a referendum last week, when officials said a majority of voters approved a series of changes to the constitution. The veteran human rights activist Tanya Lokshina joins Susan and Greg to discuss what process revealed about politics under Putin, what's changed in the constitution, and what it means for the country's future.

With the coronavirus pandemic raising serious challenges for voting and other vital democratic functions, the threat from disinformation is becoming especially acute—not least in the United States ahead of the November election. Leading experts Karen Kornbluh and Spencer Boyer join Susan and Greg to describe the problem and what transatlantic alliance countries must do to ensure the functioning of democracy. (This episode was recorded as webinar on May 20.)

Poland is wrestling with a political crisis after its ruling Law and Justice party agreed to postpone Europe's first presidential election since the outbreak of the coronavirus. The 11th-hour decision stopped the party's chaotic drive to hold a ballot by mail—denounced as a power grab by critics—but the matter is far from resolved. Wojciech Przybylski in Warsaw and Emily Schultheis in Berlin join Susan and Greg to discuss what happened, what may lie ahead and what other countries can learn.

The spread of Covid-19 is confronting Russia's Vladimir Putin and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan with unprecedented challenges to their autocratic rule. David Kramer and Soner Cagaptay join Susan and Greg to discuss how the outbreak is hitting two countries that pose the transatlantic alliance some of its biggest challenges, how each government is handling the crisis and how the two historical rivals are cooperating as well as competing in Syria and on other fronts.

Democracy has been in global decline for the past 14 years. Now it's confronted with a crisis not seen in the modern era. Autocrats are seeking to exploit the Covid-19 pandemic as democracies grapple with their own various responses. But could this be a pivotal moment, when liberal democratic leaders and transnational institutions such as the EU begin to restore trust after a decade of rising global mass protests over lack of faith in politicians and institutions? Mike Abramowitz and Sam Brennan join Susan and Greg to discuss the effects of the coronavirus crisis and potential future scenarios.

The coronavirus has starkly illustrated how the internal governance of nation states matters to international affairs. So after years of American retreat from promoting democracy and human rights around the world, how should a new administration return to supporting the core transatlantic values that have long underpinned our security and prosperity? Greg and Susan talk to the author of a new George W. Bush Institute report, Nicole Bibbins Sedaca, her colleague Lindsay Lloyd, and Dan Baer, US ambassador to the OSCE under the Obama administration.  

If a new administration takes office next January, the monumental task of restoring America's democratic reputation and tattered alliances will become a major priority. Greg and Susan talk to Democratic campaign advisers Anthony Robinson and Max Bergmann about the immediate future for a new foreign policy what the candidates should be doing to prepare. 

Judges in Poland have been taking to the streets to protest the ruling Law and Justice Party's crackdown on judicial independence. Susan moderates a Transatlantic Democracy Working Group roundtable discussion at the German Marshall Fund in Washington to discuss the latest target in the government's systematic dismantlement of democratic checks and balances.

Voters in Slovakia go to the polls next week in the first parliamentary elections since anti-corruption protests over the murder of an investigative reporter helped catapult the progressive Zuzana Caputova to the presidency last year. But many believe this month's vote will do more to determine the country's democratic future, with a new wave of pro-European liberals competing against an increasingly extremist far right in a contest that will have ripple effects across Central Europe.

Most foreign policy is carried out by governments and their diplomats. But elected members of national legislatures also play important roles influencing foreign policies, especially in democracies. Joining Susan and Greg are the presidents of the parliamentary assemblies of NATO and the OSCE to discuss what they do, the state of the transatlantic alliance and challenges for both organizations.

The United States established Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty during the Cold War to broadcast news and information into countries behind the Iron Curtain in their own languages. Today, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty—which reports news in 22 countries and 26 languages—is about to relaunch its Hungarian service for the first time since it was shut down following the collapse of communism. RFE/RL's new president, Jamie Fly, joins Greg from Prague to discuss that and what else RFE/RL is doing three decades after the fall of the Soviet empire.

The Open Society Foundations of the financier and philanthropist George Soros has given tens of billions of dollars to civil society groups around the world, promoting democracy in some 120 countries. Now OSF is starting a new effort to build a progressive grass-roots constituency among Americans for pressing issues in foreign policy such as climate change and human rights. Greg speaks to the program's founder Stephen Rickard about his plans and why he thinks they will succeed.

Starting three decades ago this Sunday, people in Czechoslovakia threw off communism with remarkable speed in the heady days of 1989. The Velvet Revolution soon swept out one of the most rigid of Soviet Bloc regimes, in place since the crushing of the Prague Spring two decades earlier. But thirty years on, the euphoria and seeming certainties that came with the ensuing integration into the European Union and NATO are gone. The former student activist leader Vaclav Bartuska joins Susan and Greg to look back at the birth of a free society in Czechoslovakia and discuss the Velvet Revolution's significance today.

Three decades ago in 1989, people in East Germany took to the streets to protest communist rule. The “Peaceful Revolution” led to the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, paving the way for German reunification the following year. But the euphoria soon wore off for many in the former East, and it's having political consequences today: eastern Germany has become the bastion of the far-right Alternative for Germany party. Karen Donfried and Jeff Gedmin join Susan and Greg to discuss the legacy of 1989 and serious challenges facing the country's political establishment today. Then ICWA fellow Emily Schultheis reports from Germany, where she speaks to young eastern Germans born in 1989 about their identity.

Anti-Semitism is rising together with the wave of right-wing populism on both sides of the Atlantic. The context is also changing, with Israel turning away on a two-state solution to the Middle East crisis and accusations in Europe of a so-called new anti-Semitism by Muslim immigrants. Joining Greg to discuss the growing regional developments and political debates affecting what had recently seemed a relatively straightforward battle against anti-Semitism are Stacy Burdett, Andrew Baker and Susan Corke.

As Turkey steps up air strikes and a ground offensive launched this week against Kurdish-held areas of northern Syria, we take a look at the context of Turkish domestic politics. Greg talks to Jonathan Katz about the military campaign, then Jonathan speaks to Turkey experts Lisel Hintz and Ozgur Unluhisarcikli about what's driving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Voters in Poland and Hungary are taking part in parliamentary and local elections this week that could add significant momentum to the right-wing populist movements in both countries. Joining Greg to explain what's at stake, likely outcomes and the latest state of affairs in both Central European countries are Susan Corke, Melissa Hooper and Dalibor Rohac.

When Vladimir Putin first became Russian prime minister two decades ago in 1999, few people had even heard of him. But the stern-faced former KGB officer soon triggered a love affair with the Russian population. Two decades on, after re-imposing authoritarian rule and a new confrontation with the West, he shows no sign of leaving. Ekaterina Egorova joins Greg to discuss his character traits and those of other authoritarian-minded rulers currently having their day.  Ekaterina Egorova is a founder and the president of the Niccolo-M Strategic Communications Agency, the leading Russian political consulting and public relations firm. She is also head of the Political Profiler, a political and psychological consulting firm based in Washington.

With the rise of mostly right-wing populism around the globe, democracy is in retreat. Last year, more countries became less free than freer for the 13th consecutive year, Freedom House says. Larry Diamond, one of the world's leading scholars of democracy, joins Greg to explain what he calls a “global democratic recession,” his new book Ill Winds, and why he believes we may be approaching a new progressive era.  

In Russia, people have taken to the streets in their largest numbers in years to protest the barring of opposition candidates from local elections next month. The scope and brutality of the crackdown has marked a new level of repression. Journalist Karina Orlova talks to Greg about what it says about the Kremlin's direction and Russia's current political climate.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging a cold war against the West to boost his popularity at home and legitimize his inner circle's appropriation of Russia's state industry. Anders Aslund joins Greg to discuss his new book,Russia's Crony Capitalism, in which he investigates how many tens of billions are being stolen, where they're going and what effect it's having on democracy and rule of law around the world.

Greg Satell—author of the new book Cascades: How to Create a Movement that Drives Transformational Change—talks to Greg about what's behind successful political movements, and Susan Corke raises some democratic breakthrough moments amid backward slide in Central Europe.  

It's no secret Russia is using campaigns of influence to confront Western democracies and their allies. But it's also intensively seeking to undermine one of its own closest allies: Belarus. Greg speaks to the country's leading opposition politician, Andrei Sannikov, about what's going on in Belarus. Then he's joined by Olga Zakharova, Uladimir Kobets and Jonathan Katz to discuss a new report detailing what they say is a major Kremlin campaign to coerce the country to give up its independence.

Moldova is under fresh leadership following a serious political crisis this month when the oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc tried to force the new government out. The country's richest man, he had captured government institutions for his own purposes, ultimately uniting the pro-Russian Socialist Party and pro-European ACUM bloc against his ruling Democratic Party. But can the ideologically opposing partners deliver on their promise to root out the country's deep corruption and establish democratic institutions and rule of law? Victoria Bucataru, Stephan Gligor and Jonathan Katz join Greg to discuss the start of a new political era for Moldova and what's at stake for Russia and the West.

Poland's nationalist Law and Justice Party has attacked democratic institutions, the judiciary and the free press and sought to criminalize criticism of Poland's role in the Holocaust. Still, the country's democracy remains more robust than Hungary's, and even critics back a US military cooperation agreement that would put more troops in Poland to deter Russia. Harlan Mandel discusses press freedom, then Irena Lasota makes the case that Western observers hold a simplistic view of Polish politics. Susan also joins Greg to discuss the Globsec security conference, the Czech Republic, Moldova and the Russian reporter Ivan Golunov.

Last year, Petr Marki-Zay won election as mayor of a medium-sized Hungarian city, defeating the candidate from Viktor Orban's ruling Fidesz party after pulling off the feat of uniting all other opposition parties behind him. He went on to found the movement Hungary for All to replicate his success across the country. He and co-founder Zoltan Kesz join Greg to discuss their strategy. 

Last year, Petr Marki-Zay won election as mayor of a medium-sized Hungarian city, defeating the candidate from Viktor Orban's ruling Fidesz party after pulling off the feat of uniting all other opposition parties behind him. He went on to found the movement Hungary for All to replicate his success across the country. He and co-founder Zoltan Kesz join Greg to discuss their strategy. Greg and Susan also discuss last week's European Parliament elections and a new congressional resolution on Hungary.

Voters across the European Union go to the polls next week to elect representatives the European Parliament. The elections come at a pivotal time, with right-wing parties seeking to build on their national successes in a number of countries, part of the populist wave sweeping the continent. Erik Brattberg, director of the Carnegie Endowment's Europe Program, joins Greg to discuss predictions, the elections' significance and how they're likely to affect the European agenda. And Greg and Susan discuss Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's meeting with President Trump in Washington and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's visit to Russia.

The election of the comic actor Volodymyr Zelensky as Ukraine's president is prompting widespread speculation about the country's future. Can the brand-new politician finally tackle the country's massive corruption as he promises or will he become a tool for financial oligarchs? Can he help resolve the conflict with Russia-backed separatists in the east? And how long will he remain popular with Ukrainians? Jonathan Katz of the German Marshall Fund talks to Ukraine Analytica editor Hannah Shelest and Chatham House's Anna Korbut about the role of the media, the conduct of Ukrainian democracy and how it shaped the elections. Also, Greg talks to Susan about Hungarian President Viktor Orban's planned meeting with President Donald Trump next week. And a few voices from a talk on Capitol Hill this week on NATO, security and democracy.