Ag Economic Insights

David discusses early commodity sales numbers, takes a more in-depth look at which commodities are selling to China and in what quantities, provides an update on the soon-to-end 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge, and announces a few temporary changes to the regular video and podcast production schedules.

David discusses the current situation with Mexican imports of U.S. corn, the implications of a no-GMO and anti-glyphosate import policy, the change in corn use in Mexico, and how the Westcott-Jewison model applies to soybeans.

David discusses yield details from the newly released October WASDE report, trends in wheat pricing, and the relationship between corn and wheat prices, highlights the four remaining questions in the AEI Yield Forecast Challenge, and introduces the newest season of AEI Presents - Nothing Borrowed, Nothing Gained.

David discusses new articles, explores the causes of the reduction in planted soybean and corn acres from the March Perspective Planting report, and examines the pace of inflation.

David discusses recent articles, takes a closer look at what relative pricing means for fertilizer price ratios, explores trends in capital expenditures, and highlights how predicting the path of a hurricane uses forecasting that could be applied to other topics.

David discusses recent articles, changes in the interest rate, what long-term rates may mean for farmers, and shifting fertilizer prices.

David discusses details from the September WASDE Report, results of a deeper dive into government agricultural spending programs, and takes a look at net farm income.

David and Brent discuss gasoline price changes, commodity exports, crop yield predictions, sales of corn to China, and what makes a fragile game challenging to play

David discusses the tight grain stocks situation, U.S. and global ending stocks, ways to potentially fix a tight stock situation, and a likely outcome from the current tight stock situation.

David discusses new articles, Jeff Young's ongoing analysis of crop yields and recent application of the Westcott-Jewison model, a more complete look at changes to farmland values, and the newest episode of the Ag Interrupted podcast.

David soliloquizes about crop yield forecasts, yield uncertainty remaining at this point in the year, the state of the ongoing Ag Forecast Challenge, and new articles.

David soliloquizes about the yield and crop details from the August WASDE, changes to Indiana farmland values, and corn-soybean exchange rates with established and emerging economies.

David discusses the upcoming WASDE report's implications for yield changes, the ongoing Yield Forecast Challenge, ag commodity purchases from China, and the roles of relative prices and elasticity.

David and Brent discuss dry planting conditions, an episode of the Ag Interrupted series, farm loan delinquencies, the farm economy, and a book about George Washington.

David discusses the changes to the AEI website, unpacks what the data presented by the drought monitor may mean for crop yields, and takes a look at the idea of ROI.

David discusses implications from the July WASDE and June acreage reports, interest rate movement, commodity pricing, and planned changes to both the AEI site and the publication time for the weekly newsletter.

David discusses market uncertainty, farm debt, the changes to family living expenses, and due diligence in "desperate times." Additionally, keep an eye out for the USDA's July 12 WASDE report, which will resolve some AFN questions and open new ones. 

David discusses progress on New Year's resolutions, gasoline consumption, trends in vegetable oil production, and the placebo effect, and teases an upcoming podcast series - Ag Interrupted.

David discusses recent articles and questions focusing on the macro-economy, actions of the Federal Reserve, and predictions for interest rates, inflation trends, and the Fed fund rate.

David discusses recent articles and reports highlighting the results of the June WASDE report, actions of the Federal Reserve, and the stocks-to-use situation.

David comments on recent articles including one marking the end of an Ag Forecast Network question on taxes, and one regarding the interaction of inflation and corn prices, which also brings up a lesson from history.

David discusses the ongoing - and still accepting new contestants - Yield Forecast Challenge ahead of the upcoming WASDE report set to be released June 10, fertilizer price changes, and fluctuations in the price of soybean meal and oil.

David discusses elements influencing double-cropping, acre swapping, and the implications of gasoline pricing and consumption.

David discusses new articles, the prevent plant and crop yield situation, the potential for crops to see acre switching or demand rationing occur, and takes a look at the meaning behind the phrase “Desperate times call for desperate measures.”

David discusses data and implications from the May WASDE report, initial results for several Ag Forecast Network questions, updates the early results of the Yield Forecast Challenge, and highlights new articles.

David highlights important elements of the upcoming May WASDE report, reviews the open questions for the 2022 Yield Challenge, and discusses details of recent articles.

David and guest co-host Randall Dickhut discuss farmland sales, land value, cash rental rates, and the rise in uncertainty. 

David and Brent discuss new articles and insights, stagflation, and the early days of the 2022 Ag Forecast Network Yield Challenge.

David kicks off the start of the 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge - 16 questions with a $1,600 prize - with the initial questions and details of recent yield-focused articles.

David and Brent discuss the macroeconomy including ongoing Ag Forcast Network questions about potential actions of the Fed, inflation rates, supply shocks, and debt.

David and Brent discuss the somewhat unexpected results of the USDA's March Prospective Planting report and share how well the Ag Forecast Network Consensus predicted the outcome of crop-based questions.

David soliloquizes about articles and questions covering topics including farm sector assets debt, fertilizer prices, and oil prices, before touching on details of the upcoming Yield Forecast Challenge.

David and Brent discuss how to handle chaos, commodity price increases resulting from the Ukraine-Russia situation, new Ag Forcast Network questions, and what happened last time Congress tried to end daylight saving time. 

Speaking from the Commodity Classic, David chats about new articles and new questions, crop insurance price windows, the corn-soybean crop price ratio, and a memo about how to deal with chaos. 

David and Brent discuss global acreage expansion by country and crop type along with elements influencing the macroeconomic situation.

David and Brent discuss the situation with Russia and Ukraine from a crop production and commodity perspective following the initial stages of the invasion. Data shared in the conversation stems from analyses completed in a new What We Are Thinking About Memo.

David and Brent discuss new USDA data on net farm income estimates.  This week's conversation also highlights  ARC and PLC and possible Farm Bill programs, along with planted acreage potentials.

David and Brent discuss crop insurance, the conclusion of an Ag Forecast Network question about sales to China, and the weather-forecasting abilities of groundhogs.

David and Brent discuss podcasting, using historical situations to improve thinking about current events and decision-making, the "rhyming" nature of history, and carrying lessons forward.

David and Brent discuss new articles, the macroeconomy, the most recent meeting of the Fed - including its implications for interest rates - and the potential influence of the Russia/Ukraine situation on the grain trade.

David and Brent discuss what it means to be carbon neutral versus aspiring to be carbon neutral, new articles, the influence of China on the grain trade, and open Ag Forecast Network questions. 

David and Brent discuss the data from new USDA reports and recently published articles, and examine results from several now closed AFN questions.

Brent and David start the New Year discussing implications of the most recent Fed meeting along with the new questions coming to the Ag Forecast Network.Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.

Brent and David discuss the Fed's latest meeting and implications from interest rates, inflation, GDP, and farmland value. Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.

David and Brent take a look at new articles, highlight memorable moments from 2021, and discuss the multiple elements to consider when thinking about corn or soybean planting for 2022. Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.

David and Brent discuss recent articles and the role that market volatility is playing in both outlook determinations for anticipated plantings and budget preparation. Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.

David and guest co-host Jeff Young take a closer look at the Yield Model Project and lessons learned about factors that influence crop yield as highlighted by Westcott-Jewison.Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.

David and guest co-host Troy Walker dive into the details of the fertilizer market and highlight potential challenges that could be on the horizon. Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.

David delves into the changing market for soybean oil and reviews the players in this year's acreage debate before asking listeners to think about why the end of Daylight Saving Time makes them grumble. Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.

 David and Brent reflect on lessons learned from poker, books, and the benefits of curiosity.  Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.

 David discusses ways to improve thinking through risk,  articles from the week, and how the social desirability bias works. Not yet a member of AEI Premium? Sign up for a free 14-day trial: https://aei.ag/premium/.