Podcasts about Stagflation

Are we sleepwalking into an economic disaster? I'm joined by economist and energy expert Tracy Shuchart, who breaks down why America's fragile, debt-ridden economy will struggle to sustain a $200 billion war with Iran. We explain why, despite the good intentions of dealing with Iran, the U.S. is not economically prepared for war — and how oil shocks, stagflation, and runaway debt could trigger a financial crisis. Tracy makes the point that we should focus more on oil refineries and pipelines, which are even more important than increased oil drilling. Separately, I tackle how Trump is both retreating on immigration and making the issue unpopular. Also, he is focused on the wrong issues with AI and is more interested in building the surveillance state than a healthy, broad-based economy.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Fed just admitted inflation is spiraling out of control while refusing to do the one thing that actually works—raise rates—and Powell is banking on hope and fantasy to save the economy, but here's why today's gold selloff is the buying opportunity of a lifetime.- This episode is sponsored by InvestingPRO. Get 55% o

The Last Trade: Jackson, Michael, and Brian break down AI job displacement, the Strait of Hormuz oil shock, hot PPI data, Wyoming hoarding gold, ETF inflows resuming, the Bitrefill hack, and why the Fed is trapped like a rat.---

This episode comes directly from the Wednesday update that members inside the DTA community receive. In this update we discuss: Inflation just got more aggressive, and today's PPI report proves it. We break down the February 2026 Producer Price Index data, why a 48.9% spike in vegetable prices is more than a blip, and what Jerome Powell's careful word choice is really telling us about the state of the economy.In this episode:​Why PPI came in at 0.7% — more than double expectations — and what's driving it.​The "perfect storm" of weather, tariffs, and labor shortages is hitting food prices.​Powell's "pincer move" explanation and why he's refusing to use the word stagflation.​The 10-year Treasury yield is hitting 4.25% and why. ​Earnings breakdown: Micron's massive AI-driven beats the forecast. ​SPY and QQQ key levels — why the market is bearish but still highly tradeable.​The two catalysts that could flip the inflation narrative. Subscribe to The Disciplined Traders Podcast for market breakdowns, trading education, and no-nonsense analysis.

Mar 18, 2026 – Is the recent volatility in energy markets a precursor to a cyclical downturn, or has the U.S. consumer achieved a new level of structural decoupling from energy price shocks? Join Cris Sheridan and ITR Economics' Lauren Saidel-Baker...

Michael Shaoul says back-end energy prices show that the market anticipates the U.S./Iran conflict to only be a 60-90 day disruption. He sees inflation ahead, but not the “stag” part of stagflation, reviewing the latest economic data. “So far, I don't think it's realistic to expect any impact” from energy prices, though “things could go wrong” over the next few months.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Zwei Wochen Iran-Krieg – und der Ölpreis ist um 40 Prozent explodiert. Während die Notierungen die 100-Dollar-Marke stürmen und die Straße von Hormus in Flammen steht, diskutieren die beiden Wirtschaftsjournalisten Dietmar Deffner und Zschäpitz über das ultimative Börsen-Szenario. Erleben wir eine düstere Wiederholung der 1970er-Jahre inklusive Stagflation, Rezession und Börsencrash – oder rettet der „Trump-Put“ die Kurse im letzten Moment? Von Lieferketten-Chaos in der Chipindustrie bis hin zu den Profiteuren der Krise wie K+S und dem Verlierer Tui: Alles über die neue Panik an der Börse und warum die Notenbanken jetzt vor einem Dilemma stehen. DEFFNER & ZSCHÄPITZ sind wie das wahre Leben. Wie Optimist und Pessimist. Im wöchentlichen WELT-Podcast diskutieren und streiten die Journalisten Dietmar Deffner und Holger Zschäpitz über die wichtigen Wirtschaftsthemen des Alltags. Schreiben Sie uns an: wirtschaftspodcast@welt.de Impressum: https://www.welt.de/services/article7893735/Impressum.html Datenschutzerklärung: https://www.welt.de/services/article157550705/Datenschutzerklaerung-WELT-DIGITAL.html

GDP data released this week shows an economy that slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter of 2025 as inflation picked up. That's not a good sign now that oil prices have nearly doubled this year and job cuts continue. We discuss what this data says about the economy and what we're going as investors. Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Jason Moser discuss: - Q4 2025 GDP data - Uber's autonomous momentum - Adobe's earnings - Executive free agents - Stocks on our radar Companies discussed: Alphabet (GOOG), Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Boeing (BA), 3M (MMM), Netflix (NFLX), Globus Medical (GMED), Aerovironment (AVAV). Host: Travis Hoium Guests: Lou Whiteman, Jason Moser Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On today's show we are talking about a parallel between present day circumstances and 1973. The mid 1970's were characterized by the simultaneous surge in inflation and economic contraction. These were events that were up until that point considered to be mutually exclusive. The embargo didn't just cause a temporary blip; it changed the structural behavior of the U.S. economy. Even after the embargo ended in 1974, inflation expectations remained high. As prices rose, workers demanded higher wages to keep up. Employers then raised prices again to cover the higher wages, creating a self-reinforcing loop of inflation.If the oil supply remains constricted for more than a few weeks, I predict that stagflation will be upon us. It's a remake of the same movie with different actors. 

This week, we discuss the war in Iran and a run of discouraging economic data, including falling payrolls, rising inflation and a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. The most dramatic market development was in oil. Prices surged to $120 per barrel early Monday before plunging to $90 by Monday afternoon, the largest decline on record. The fall followed comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict would soon end. Yet the administration later walked back those remarks, leaving oil trading near $100 by the end of the week. The turbulence in energy markets arrives at an awkward moment for the economy. Signs of stagflation appear to be intensifying. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, marking the third decline in the past five months. At the same time inflation remains stubborn. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, rose 0.4 percent month over month in January after a similar increase in December. With energy prices rising sharply in recent weeks, the March reading is likely to come in even higher. The growth picture is weakening as well. Fourth quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial estimate of 1.4 percent, a revision that underscores the increasingly fragile state of the economy. Taken together, the combination of softer growth, falling employment, and persistent inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to begin cutting interest rates and tip the economy into recession.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Stagflation — the dreaded economic word from the 1970s — may be making a comeback. With slowing GDP growth and persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve is caught between cutting rates and controlling rising prices. Chris discusses what the latest economic data means, why everyday costs are still surging, and why owning real assets may be the only way to protect your purchasing power.

Central banks across Asia and globally are being forced into sharp policy rethinks as Middle East conflict drives higher oil prices and reignites inflation fears. The G7 is discussing emergency oil reserve releases while policymakers scramble to balance growth concerns with renewed price pressures.Today's Stocks & Topics: Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI), Watsco, Inc. (WSO), Core & Main, Inc. (CNM), Embraer S.A. (EMBJ), Silver and Precious Metals, Central Bank Pivot: How Geopolitical Chaos is Rewriting Monetary Policy, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC), Stagflation.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic: https://claude.ai/invest* Check out Pebl: https://hipebl.ai* Check out Progressive: https://progressive.com* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/INVESTAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Note: This episode was recorded prior to recent developments in the Middle East and the associated impact on global energy markets. Some macroeconomic context discussed in this episode reflects conditions at the time of recording. Lenders are re-engaging, origination activity is picking up, and the market is beginning to find its footing around the wall of maturities, but rising operating expenses are outpacing rent growth in select segments, and a new set of macro uncertainties is changing the capital markets math for CRE. In this episode, we're joined by Brian Bailey, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Trimont, to examine CRE debt market conditions, sector-level operating trends, and the risks the industry may be underestimating heading into 2026. Brian draws on 14 years as the Federal Reserve System's CRE subject matter expert and Trimont's $700B loan servicing portfolio to share what the data is revealing about credit conditions, expense pressures, and lender behavior across the market. Key moments01:29 - Brian's career journey07:00 - From Fed to Trimont09:09 - Office lending sentiment11:55 - Trimont data advantage14:11 - Stagflation and expenses18:20 - Capital markets inflection22:03 - Wall of maturities25:54 - Non-bank lending risks29:52 - 2026 themes by sector32:37 - Underappreciated 2026 risks34:36 - An industry wish for transparency Resources mentionedBrian Bailey - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-bailey-1a73888/Trimont - https://trimont.com/

Alarm bells on the health of the U.S. economy are ringing. An unexpectedly dismal jobs report, growing unemployment and the ensuing uncertainty over trade policy piled on top of surging oil prices--make the financial outlook particularly bleak this month. Could a recession be next? USA TODAY Money Reporter Andrea Riquier joins The Excerpt to share her latest insights as to where the economy is headed.Let us know what you think of this episode by sending an email to podcasts@usatoday.com. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

โลกกำลังเข้าสู่ยุคตั๋วเครื่องบินแพง สายการบินทั่วโลกเตรียมขึ้นค่าโดยสาร เซ่นปมสงครามตะวันออกกลาง ฟาก ‘การบินไทย' แจงทยอยขึ้นค่าตั๋วแล้ว 10-20% ในบางเส้นทาง รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไร สงครามตะวันออกกลางเดือด เสี่ยงลาม Stagflation สินทรัพย์ไหนรุ่ง-ร่วง? พูดคุยกับ นิสารัตน์ ชมภูพงษ์ ผู้อำนวยการ Wealth and Investment Advisory SCB CIO ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์

Part 2 for Members - www.parallelmike.com Mike's Investing Community and Financial Newsletter – www.patreon.com/parallelsystems Consult with Mike 1-2-1 - www.parallelmike.com/consultation

Ce mercredi 11 mars, l'étude sur le réarmement de l'Europe et les défis liés à l'intégration économique et à l'innovation, le retour des prix du pétrole sous la barre des 90 dollars le baril, le risque de stagflation au Moyen-Orient, et la hausse rapide de la fiscalité par rapport à la croissance., ont été abordés par Anne-Sophie Alsif, cheffe économiste du cabinet d'audit BDO France et professeure à Paris 1, Emmanuelle Auriol, professeure à la Toulouse School of Economics et membre du CAE, et Pascal de Lima, chef économiste chez Novaminds, dans l'émission Les Experts, présentée par Raphaël Legendre sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.

โลกกำลังเข้าสู่ยุคตั๋วเครื่องบินแพง สายการบินทั่วโลกเตรียมขึ้นค่าโดยสาร เซ่นปมสงครามตะวันออกกลาง ฟาก ‘การบินไทย' แจงทยอยขึ้นค่าตั๋วแล้ว 10-20% ในบางเส้นทาง รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไรสงครามตะวันออกกลางเดือด เสี่ยงลาม Stagflation สินทรัพย์ไหนรุ่ง-ร่วง? พูดคุยกับ นิสารัตน์ ชมภูพงษ์ ผู้อำนวยการ Wealth and Investment Advisory SCB CIO ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์

Stagflation had entered the chat… But the President reversed everything with a tweet.Calvin Klein's is viral thanks to FX's “Love Story” about JFK Jr and CBK… but Calvin wasn't ready.Live Nation doesn't have to sell Ticketmaster… so is $LN the next $GOOG?Plus, Beyond Meat's got a new name… but it's the longest name in Wall Street history.$BYND $PVH $LYV $SPYBuy tickets to The IPO Tour (our In-Person Offering) TODAYArlington, VA (3/11): https://www.arlingtondrafthouse.com/shows/341317 New York, NY (4/8): https://www.ticketmaster.com/event/0000637AE43ED0C2Los Angeles, CA (6/3): SOLD OUTGet your TBOY Yeti Doll gift here: https://tboypod.com/shop/product/economic-support-yeti-doll NEWSLETTER:https://tboypod.com/newsletter OUR 2ND SHOW:Want more business storytelling from us? Check our weekly deepdive show, The Best Idea Yet: The untold origin story of the products you're obsessed with. Listen for free to The Best Idea Yet: https://wondery.com/links/the-best-idea-yet/NEW LISTENERSFill out our 2 minute survey: https://qualtricsxm88y5r986q.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dp1FDYiJgt6lHy6GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Linkedin (Nick): https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/Linkedin (Jack): https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ About Us: The daily pop-biz news show making today's top stories your business. Formerly known as Robinhood Snacks, The Best One Yet is hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

10 Mar 2026. With oil prices climbing above $115 a barrel amid Middle East tensions, concerns about stagflation are emerging. Economist Ed Bell of Emirates NBD explains what it is and whether the UAE is at risk. Plus, Josh Gilbert of eToro on mixed Gulf market performance, Lulu Group’s V. Nandakumar on chartering planes to bring in fresh produce, a legal view on force majeure in the energy sector, and Donna Benton, founder of The Entertainer, on giving away 50,000 memberships to support hospitality and leisure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A surge in oil prices tied to rising tensions involving Iran has economists and investors whispering a word we haven't heard much since the 1970s: stagflation. But what exactly is it—and should you be worried? In this episode, Pete breaks down why spikes in oil prices can ripple through the entire economy, how stagflation happens when inflation and economic slowdown collide, and why energy shocks have historically been the trigger. More importantly, he explains what this moment actually means for households, your budget, and the broader economy. Is stagflation coming… or is this just another scary economic headline? Pete separates the signal from the noise.

The Dow is coming off its biggest weekly slide in nearly a year, EP Wealth Advisor JD Nathan Rogers on planning for retirement, More on the next seminar Beyond the Noise: Navigating Wealth in Uncertain Times with EP Wealth Advisors CFP Stephanie Richman and JD Nathan Rogers at the Don Tatzin Community Hall Lafayette Library this Wednesday March 11th from 6:30pm to 8:30pm

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the market reaction to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with oil briefly surging past $115 per barrel and energy markets swinging wildly. They discuss why markets appear to be pricing in a relatively short conflict, what a prolonged disruption could mean for inflation, and whether the global economy is at risk of drifting toward stagflation.Plus, the hosts examine what rising energy costs could mean for the Federal Reserve and global growth, debate the usefulness of “market meltdown” predictions, and explain why retirees should avoid making emotional investment decisions during periods of volatility. They also touch on the evolving role of malls in retail, the risks of the explosion in sports betting among younger Americans, and why economists' obsession with labeling the economy with letters may be missing the point.

The Dow is coming off its biggest weekly slide in nearly a year, EP Wealth Advisor JD Nathan Rogers on planning for retirement, More on the next seminar Beyond the Noise: Navigating Wealth in Uncertain Times with EP Wealth Advisors CFP Stephanie Richman and JD Nathan Rogers at the Don Tatzin Community Hall Lafayette Library this Wednesday March 11th from 6:30pm to 8:30pmSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economist Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar joins Soar Financially to discuss rising inflation, expanding Fed liquidity, and the growing risk of stagflation in 2026. With geopolitical tensions, soaring deficits, and uncertainty around the U.S. dollar, Sri-Kumar explains why markets may be underestimating the risks ahead. He also breaks down what this could mean for gold, silver, oil prices, and the global economy.#war #iran #gold---------------------

When oil prices spike nearly 30% in a matter of days and a weak jobs report hits on the same Friday, the word on every investor’s mind is stagflation. On this episode of The Financial Hour of the Tom Dupree Show, host Tom Dupree, James Dupree, and Mike Johnson break down how the Middle East conflict is rippling through oil markets, what it means for interest rates and inflation, and why personalized investment management matters more than ever when volatility takes center stage. Whether you’re thinking about retirement or already drawing income from your portfolio, the current environment is a powerful reminder that how your money is managed — and who manages it — can make the difference between weathering the storm and watching your principal erode. How the Middle East Conflict Is Driving Oil Prices and Market Turbulence The most immediate market impact from the conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran has been felt in energy prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged from roughly $72 per barrel to touch $92, according to data tracked by the U.S. Energy Information Administration — a move of nearly 30% in just days. Mike Johnson explained the supply dynamics at play: “Kuwait — they’re cutting oil production. And this is because the Strait of Hormuz is cut off for all practical purposes. These big producers are running out of storage for the oil. They’re essentially closing up the wells.” The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of all global oil shipments daily. With roughly 90 million barrels of crude produced worldwide each day, shutting down that corridor has massive supply implications. Tom Dupree noted the physical challenge: “What keeps an oil well going is the oil flowing through all the little capillaries. When that gets turned off, it starts to sludge up.” Restarting shut-in wells can take days to weeks, and operators risk losing pressure and production permanently. For those tracking market commentary on gasoline prices, Mike pointed out a critical consumer threshold: “When you get to about $3.50 a gallon, that’s when you start seeing an impact on spending in a more meaningful way. And then $4 is when things start getting much worse in terms of consumer spending.” Stagflation Fears: Why One Jobs Report Has Investors on Edge The Friday jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in weaker than expected, and the combination of rising commodity prices with a slowing labor market triggered immediate stagflation concerns across Wall Street. As Mike explained: “The market’s immediate knee-jerk reaction was that terrible S-word — stagflation. If we have a slowing economy with higher commodity prices, you have inflation and a slowing economy.” Tom was quick to add perspective: “One jobs number does not stagflation make. It’s a trend. But the fact that oil’s going up is gonna be considered inflationary, and then you get that jobs report on top of it.” Despite the volatility — with the market opening down 1.5% on Monday before recovering, followed by a sharp Tuesday sell-off — the broader indices showed resilience for the week. Mike observed: “We’ve essentially declared war. You’ve got oil prices up 30%. The market’s only off a little bit for the week. It’s been resilient as a whole.” This kind of choppy, bifurcated market is exactly why a disciplined investment philosophy matters. When risk-on and risk-off signals get scrambled day to day, reactive investors often make the wrong moves at the worst times. AI and the Job Market: Disruption Is Real, But It’s Not All Bad The conversation turned to how artificial intelligence is reshaping the employment landscape and what it means for market sentiment. James Dupree offered a nuanced take on the weak jobs data: “The AI stocks — they don’t really tie that to the economy because AI is going to replace jobs. So it might actually be good if there’s a bad jobs report for those AI stocks.” Mike broke down where the disruption is hitting hardest: “Some of your more tenured and senior workers — they’re benefiting from AI. What it’s impacting are the entry-level jobs. The number crunchers, entry-level analysts — those are the type of things that are able to be AI-ed away.” Tom drew a historical parallel: “AI is obviously the big thing right now. It’s the same way that the dot-com stuff was 20-something years ago. There will be winners and there will be losers, but I happen to believe that AI may actually create jobs because there will be more things that people can do.” For investors, the takeaway is that AI-related stocks occupy a unique space in the current market. James pointed to NVIDIA’s forward P/E ratio of 22 — below the S&P 500’s five-year average of roughly 23 — as evidence that some of the market’s fastest-growing companies are actually reasonably valued despite the broader market looking stretched. Sequence of Returns Risk: The Retirement Danger Most People Don’t See Coming Perhaps the most critical segment of the episode focused on a concept that every person in retirement or thinking about retirement needs to understand: sequence of returns risk. This is the idea that when your returns happen matters just as much as what they average over time — especially when you’re withdrawing money from your portfolio. Mike walked through a clear example: “Let’s say you have a million dollars and you’re drawing 4%, which is $40,000 a year. In the first year, the market goes down by 10% — your million dollars is now $900,000 plus you took out $40,000. So now you’re at $860,000. The next year, another 10% drop — down another $86,000 plus the $40,000 you withdrew. You have to get massive rises in the stock market to get back to even.” He continued: “There comes a point of no return where you’re forced to lower your withdrawal. If a million dollars is now $700,000 and you’re taking out $40,000, that’s now a 5.5% withdrawal rate. It’s negative compounding.” This is one of the core reasons the team at Dupree Financial Group structures retirement portfolios around dividend-paying investments. Tom explained the logic: “Sequence of returns is one reason why we invest for dividends — so that if the sequence of the return is negative, we may not have to be in a position to sell stocks in a down market. We can draw from the dividends.” For anyone approaching retirement or already drawing income, understanding this risk is essential. Resources from FINRA’s investor education center offer additional background on managing withdrawal strategies and retirement income planning. Berkshire Hathaway Under Greg Abel: Culture, Buybacks, and Alignment The episode also covered Berkshire Hathaway’s transition to new leadership under Greg Abel, who took over from Warren Buffett. Abel’s first annual letter to shareholders ran 18 pages — longer than Buffett’s typical letters — and signaled a leadership style rooted in operational detail and cultural preservation. Mike highlighted two significant announcements. First, Berkshire is resuming share buybacks for the first time since May 2024. Second, Abel is investing 100% of his post-tax salary — roughly $15 million per year — into Berkshire stock personally. “It’s all about alignment with shareholders,” Mike said. “It fits the Berkshire culture to a T.” The team also discussed Abel’s emphasis on corporate culture as a lasting competitive advantage. As Abel wrote in his shareholder letter, “Culture is our most treasured asset.” Tom connected that philosophy to Dupree Financial Group’s own approach: “We’ve worked to earn the trust of our clients and we have to keep working to keep that.” Historical Market Returns After Geopolitical Events Mike shared data that puts the current conflict in long-term perspective. Looking at one-year returns following major geopolitical events, the numbers are striking: 11.2% after the Korean War, 27% after the Cuban Missile Crisis, 13% after the Six-Day War, 10% after the Gulf War, nearly 27% after the invasion of Iraq, 19% after the Brexit vote, and 43% in the year following COVID-19. However, Tom added an important caveat for retirees: “What about the 30% drop that came before that? Individuals have to look at sequence of return, not just the long-term averages.” This distinction between how a static portfolio and a retirement portfolio respond to volatility is central to Dupree Financial Group’s investment philosophy — building portfolios of quality, dividend-paying companies in separately managed accounts where each client owns their individual stocks rather than being pooled into a mutual fund. Key Takeaways from This Episode Oil prices have surged nearly 30% due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with WTI crude jumping from $72 to $92 per barrel, creating ripple effects across the global economy. Stagflation fears are rising as weak jobs data combines with inflationary energy prices, though one report alone doesn’t confirm a trend. The $3.50 gas price threshold is where consumer spending starts to contract meaningfully — and $4 per gallon is where it gets significantly worse. Sequence of returns risk is more important than average returns for anyone in retirement or approaching it — early losses combined with withdrawals create negative compounding that can be devastating. Dividend investing provides a buffer during market downturns by allowing retirees to draw income without being forced to sell stocks at depressed prices. AI is reshaping the job market, benefiting senior workers while displacing entry-level roles, and creating a unique dynamic for tech stock valuations. Berkshire Hathaway’s Greg Abel is resuming share buybacks and investing his entire post-tax salary in Berkshire stock, signaling strong alignment with shareholders. Diversification across sectors — including energy exposure — helps portfolios weather geopolitical shocks through negative correlation benefits. Frequently Asked Questions How do rising oil prices affect my retirement portfolio? Rising oil prices can trigger inflation, which erodes purchasing power and can hurt broad market returns. However, portfolios with energy sector exposure may benefit from higher commodity prices. The key is having a diversified, actively managed portfolio that can adapt to changing market conditions rather than being locked into a one-size-fits-all approach. What is sequence of returns risk and why does it matter? Sequence of returns risk refers to the danger that poor market returns early in retirement — combined with portfolio withdrawals — can permanently damage your nest egg, even if long-term average returns are positive. A $1 million portfolio losing 10% while withdrawing $40,000 drops to $860,000 in year one, making recovery increasingly difficult. This is why income-focused strategies using dividends can help reduce the need to sell during downturns. Should I be worried about stagflation? One weak jobs report alongside rising oil prices raises the question, but stagflation requires a sustained trend of economic stagnation paired with persistent inflation. The current market has shown resilience despite the volatility. That said, having a portfolio strategy that accounts for inflation protection — through dividend growth stocks and diversified sector exposure — is prudent regardless of the economic outlook. How is AI affecting investment opportunities right now? AI-related stocks are trading somewhat independently from broader economic indicators. Companies like NVIDIA are showing strong earnings growth with forward valuations actually below the S&P 500 average. AI is displacing some entry-level jobs while creating opportunities for more experienced workers, making it a complex but potentially rewarding area for long-term investors. What did Berkshire Hathaway’s new leader announce? Greg Abel, who succeeded Warren Buffett, announced that Berkshire would resume share buybacks and that he would personally invest 100% of his post-tax salary — approximately $15 million annually — into Berkshire stock. His 18-page shareholder letter emphasized operational detail and cultural preservation as his top priorities. Don’t Let Market Noise Derail Your Retirement When oil prices surge, jobs data disappoints, and geopolitical uncertainty dominates the headlines, it’s easy to feel like the ground is shifting beneath your feet. But reactive investing — selling in a panic or chasing the latest trend — is one of the biggest threats to a retirement portfolio. At Dupree Financial Group, every client gets a separately managed account with direct access to their portfolio managers — not an assigned counselor at a call center. Your portfolio is built around your retirement timeline, your income needs, and your risk tolerance, with quality dividend-paying companies that provide income even when markets get choppy. If you don’t know what you own in your portfolio, you need to. Call (859) 233-0400 or schedule your complimentary portfolio review online to find out how a personalized approach could help protect — and grow — your retirement income. Listen to the full episode and explore more market insights on The Financial Hour podcast archive. Hear from clients who’ve made the switch to personalized investment management. Dupree Financial Group is a registered investment advisor (RIA) registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information provided in this blog post and podcast is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. For more information, please review our firm disclosures on SEC.gov. The post Oil Prices Surge 30%: What Rising Market Volatility Means for Your Retirement Portfolio appeared first on Dupree Financial.

Au sommaire : Les prix du carburant ont fortement augmenté, atteignant plus de 2 euros par litre, en raison de la hausse des cours du pétrole liée à la guerre au Moyen-Orient, ce qui alimente la polémique sur un éventuel effet d'aubaine pour les distributeurs.La guerre au Moyen-Orient fait craindre un risque de stagflation, avec une hausse de l'inflation et un ralentissement de la croissance, notamment en cas de fermeture du détroit d'Ormuz et de perturbations durables des approvisionnements en gaz et en pétrole.Une directive européenne sur la transparence salariale doit être transposée en France cette année, obligeant les entreprises à indiquer les fourchettes de rémunération dans les offres d'emploi et à publier des rapports sur les écarts de salaire entre hommes et femmes.Les compagnies aériennes et le secteur du tourisme sont fortement impactés par la guerre au Moyen-Orient, avec de nombreux vols annulés et des milliers de voyageurs bloqués.L'agence de notation Fitch doit se prononcer sur la note de crédit de la France, avec une possible dégradation de la perspective.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Die Anzeichen für eine wirtschaftliche Erholung in Deutschland schienen sich gerade zu mehren – da wirbelte der US-amerikanische Angriff auf den Iran wieder alle Prognosen durcheinander. Vor allem die Blockade des Seeweges durch die Straße von Hormus belastet die Rohstoffmärkte – und damit auch die Preisentwicklung in Deutschland. „Im schlimmsten Fall droht uns eine Stagflation für dieses Jahr, also eine Kombination aus wirtschaftlicher Stagnation und stärker steigenden Preisen“, sagt Holger Schmieding, Chefvolkswirt der Privatbank Berenberg, im Capital Wirtschaftspodcast. Allerdings ist für den Ökonomen ein solches Szenario „nicht unbedingt der wahrscheinlichste Fall“. Entscheidend sei, wie lange die Öl- und Gasttransporte behindert würden. „Wenn die Straße von Hormus in spätestens einem Monat wieder für Gas und Öl geöffnet ist, dann ist das für uns keine große Sache“, sagt Schmieding. „Bleibt die Straße von Hormus für längere Zeit geschlossen, dann wird sich das in Europa vor allem am Preis für Flüssiggas bemerkbar machen.“ Im Podcast erklärt Schmieding, warum Donald Trump ein Interesse hat, den Krieg schnell zu beenden, welche Rolle das Zollurteil des Obersten Gerichtshofes spielt – und ob das Konjunkturprogramm der Bundesregierung schon wirkt. Eine Produktion von RTL+ Podcast.Host: Nils Kreimeier.Redaktion: Lucile Gagnière.Produktion: Andolin Sonnen. +++Weitere Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern finden Sie hier: https://linktr.ee/diestundenull +++60 Tage lang kostenlos Capital+ lesen - Zugriff auf alle digitalen Artikel, Inhalte aus dem Heft und das ePaper. Unter Capital.de/plus-gratis Dieser Podcast wird vermarktet von Julep Media: sales@julep.de

The financial news throws around terms that are hard to understand. Let’s break it down for you. Subscribe or follow so you never miss an episode! Check out Fire Your Financial Advisor on YouTube! Learn more at GoldenReserve.com or follow on social: Facebook & LinkedIn.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news inflation spike fear is gripping financial markets today as equities fall, bond yields rise, some key commodities like the oil price are spiking, and there is a sharp move toward perceptions of financial 'safety' which is hurting commodity-based currencies like the AUD and the NZD. The fear is based on seeing central banks hiking policy rates to weight against a looming inflation spike, just when economic activity is likely to weaken sharply on the consequences of Trump's wars. The fear is stagflation on steroids. It is affecting investors from New York to Shanghai. And now Trump is blaming friends (Spain, the UK) for not being supportive enough and threatening new trade restrictions. But it isn't universal - yet anyway. First up today, there has been another very good dairy auction overnight, the fifth positive one in a row, delivering prices up overall by +5.7% un USD terms. With the falling NZD, prices are up +8.4% in NZD. Our charts tell the story overall and in product detail. Basically prices are now back to the high 2025 levels in both USD and NZD terms. Yes, analysts will be reaching for their pencils to reassess the season's payout forecast, although we should caution that we are well past the peak of the milk flows - and that volumes offered and sold overnight are falling away seasonally. More broadly, in the US overnight, the February US Logistics Manager survey showed pressure on their system with rising inventories and strained capacity. Meanwhile the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index retreated in March from February, and delivering a decline when an rise was expected. This is largely because personal investor sentiment fell sharply as confidence in US government economic policies slipped away. In the Middle East, only one tanker, a Singaporean one, has managed to traverse the Straits of Hormuz in the past day. It's essentially closed still. Insurers have cancelled policies. Now the US says it is considering providing that, at taxpayer expense. The costs of war are broad. The scheduled meeting between Chinese President Xi and US President Trump is still on for the end of March. Given the unhinged policy-making by the US, it is a lottery on how this will play out. Trump will undoubtedly look for short-term, face-savings wins. Xi will be playing a much longer game. Meanwhile, China is putting the finishing touches to its latest five-year plan. We are approaching the rubber-stamp set piece. In Europe, the Euro area inflation rate rose to 1.9% in February, up from 1.7% in January. Although minor it was an unexpected rise. And that pushed core inflation up to 2.4% in February. Given the global rise in uncertainty, and the US/Israel/Iran crisis pushing up their energy costs very sharply in the past few days, these inflation levels are unlikely to stay this low in March, giving the ECB a new headache. In Australia, total residential building consents fell at a -7.2% rate in January, following a -30.7% drop in December. Year on year it is down -15.7%, the largest fall since late 2023. This may have ended the rising trend of approvals that started in July 2024. But there were 9,900 detached houses approved for construction nationally, a 41-month high. The big shortfall is in intensive housing. Australia's current account balance fell by -AU$2.8 bln in December 2025 to a deficit of -AU$21.1 bln. This is its second consecutive fall, driven by a net primary income deficit widening. This will take -0.1 percentage points from the December 2025 GDP result which will be released tomorrow. In public comments yesterday, the RBA governor acknowledged the sudden increase in uncertainty in the global economy, on top of already high uncertainty from Trump's abandonment of an international rules-based order. She said "a supply shock could, for example, add to inflation pressures. And the potential implications for inflation expectations are something we are very alert to. But at the same time, a prolonged impact on energy markets could have adverse effects on global economic activity and result in downward pressure on inflation. It is not obvious how this might play out." Westpac says Brent crude at US$100 is entirely possible in the coming few weeks. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.06%, unchanged from yesterday, although it did get up to 4.11% in between.  The price of gold will start today down -US$179 from yesterday at US$5117/oz. Silver is down another -US$4 at US$83/oz today. American oil prices are up +US$5.50 at just under US$76/bbl, while the international Brent price is up the same to be now just over US$82.50/bbl. These at +7.5% rises. A collapse in Iranian oil production could have quite deep impacts. The Kiwi dollar is another -50 bps lower against the USD from yesterday, now just on 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 83.8 AUc. We are down -60 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -40 bps, now just on 62.5 and a new one month low. The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,5755 and down -3.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Financial and tech stocks were hit hard by a handful of persistent investor worries on Friday, with U.S. stocks suffering their largest monthly percentage declines in a … Continue reading "Here Come The Cockroaches: Stagflation City Ahead!"

Die Spannungen zwischen den USA und dem Iran spitzen sich zu – und die Märkte reagieren bereits. Steht die Straße von Hormus vor einer Blockade, droht ein massiver Anstieg beim Ölpreis mit direkten Folgen für Inflation, Energiepreise und dein Vermögen. Wir analysieren die militärischen Bewegungen, die geopolitische Strategie und was ein Ausbruch für die Weltwirtschaft bedeuten würde. Kommt es zur nächsten Inflationswelle oder sogar zu einer neuen Phase der Stagflation? ✗ Jetzt für das heutige, exklusive Webinar anmelden:https://friedrich.report/webinar/X Oder direkt auf YouTube warten:https://youtube.com/live/gmqKiGivLlA

This week the stagflation theme refused to fade. On Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. Headline and core PCE rose 2.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively. More troubling than the levels was the recent momentum. Inflation has firmed over the past three months, an unwelcome development that further complicates the Fed's path forward. The same release cycle brought a softer than expected Q4 2025 GDP report. Headline growth registered just 1.4 per cent, unsettling markets. Consumption cooled from recent quarters, but the reaction to the top line number appears excessive. The government shutdown alone shaved nearly a full percentage point from growth, distorting the underlying signal. Taken together, the data reinforce a familiar and uncomfortable mix: slower activity alongside renewed price pressures. For central bankers, it is the most awkward of combinations.

Tony Arterburn warns that the gold and silver markets are showing signs of structural breakage—five-week payment delays, physical bottlenecks, and pricing whiplash that suggest major banks are squeezing smaller dealers while paper markets diverge from reality.Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code KNIGHT Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-showOr you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.

Tony Arterburn warns that the gold and silver markets are showing signs of structural breakage—five-week payment delays, physical bottlenecks, and pricing whiplash that suggest major banks are squeezing smaller dealers while paper markets diverge from reality. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code KNIGHT Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-showOr you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.

Chicago can't go bankrupt… and the Fed is “not doing QE” while buying tens of billions in Treasuries to keep the funding markets from cracking. So what happens next: higher inflation, higher long rates, and a steeper yield curve — or a policy pivot that no one wants to admit?In this episode of the Future's Edge, Jim Iuorio and Bob Iaccino are joined by Jim Bianco (Bianco Research) for a fast, blunt conversation on what's really happening beneath the headlines:What we cover:- Chicago's fiscal trap: why investors still buy Chicago bonds, and the Chicago Public Schools as a massive junk issuer- The real issue: Illinois' constitution and why “no Chapter 9” changes everything- Why 40% of Chicago's budget is effectively paying for the past (pensions, retiree healthcare, and debt service)- Two alarming datapoints: 911 call response deterioration and low murder clearance rates- The Fed's “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP): why it looks and behaves like QE even if the label changes- Repo market stress explained in plain English: how funding the Treasury market actually works- The bigger problem: a $38T Treasury market growing alongside persistent deficits- Fiscal dominance: why “issue more T-bills and cut rates to 1%” is a hand-grenade strategy- Rates & the long end: why Bianco sees the curve steepening and long-term yields staying pressured- AI and jobs: productivity vs disruption, and why the timeline may be longer than the hype suggests- Population growth shock: what negative net immigration could mean for payroll expectations and markets- Bitcoin & crypto: why Bianco is long-term bullish — and why he thinks the space “loses the plot” when it chases short-term “number go up”If you want a clear, no-BS walkthrough of why the Fed is intervening, why deficits matter, and why long rates may not come down the way most expect, this one's for you.Follow/Find Jim Bianco: @biancoresearchhttps://www.biancoresearch.com/Follow along on social media: Twitter:    https://x.com/bob_iaccinoTwitter:   https://x.com/jimiuorioLinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/bob-iaccino/LinkedIn:   https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-iuorio/Newsletter:  http://theunfilteredinvestor.com/Chapters: 00:00 Intro + why this episode matters02:00 Chicago bonds, pensions, and “why anyone buys this paper”05:00 Where it ends: services cut to pay the past11:00 Why cities mattered historically — and why that's changing14:40 “Not QE” explained: Reserve purchases & how the Fed creates money18:30 Repo market stress + financing the Treasury machine20:50 Deficits, inflation, and the Fed as enabler35:10 Population growth, immigration, and payroll math39:10 Stagflation risk + why 3% inflation doesn't “fix” affordability41:20 Fiscal dominance + the long end and steepener trade45:00 Bitcoin: adoption, disruption, and why the real enemy isn't ETH

Lobo Tiggre breaks down what's really driving the silver and copper breakout, why this move looks broader than just gold/silver, and why he thinks this has the feel of an early-stage commodity supercycle. We also get into “Doctor Copper,” inflation signals, why “QE by another name” matters, and how to manage mining positions without letting big wins turn into regrets. #silver #copper #commodities -------------------

Dr. Wafahakin Orman discusses the lasting impact of tariffs on consumer prices due to inventory drawdowns. She also highlights how geopolitical instability and the unpredictable nature of tariffs contribute to financial market volatility, urging caution for investors. She concludes that 2026 will likely be a continuation of current economic trends, with no significant changes on the horizon.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Economic Cycles Don't Decide Your Future. Your Strategy Does.  This episode was an internal update to my Freedom Founders community that may be helpful for you. I share how economic, cultural, and generational pressures are reshaping the marketplace, how inflation and debt dynamics are influencing opportunity, and the actions to consider to build a life that isn't just bigger—but better designed. If you're worried about the economy or unsure what step to take next, this episode will help you see more clearly and act with confidence, not anxiety. If you like this episode, here are more episodes we think you'll enjoy: Ep #566 - Partnerships, Practice Deals, and Pursuing Adventure – Freedom Through Relationships – Dr. Jose Vicens Ep #560 - The End of Cheap Money – 5 Rules To Thrive In The Next Decade – David's Monopodcast Check out the show notes for more information! P.S. Whenever you're ready, here are some other ways I can help fast track you to your Freedom goal (you're closer than you think): 1. Schedule a Call with My Team: If you're tired of running on the hamster wheel, and are looking for a proven blueprint to create more freedom and reduce dependency on your practice income, schedule a call with my team to learn more. 2. Get Your Dentist Retirement Survival Guide: The winds of economic change are here, and now is the time to move to higher ground. This guide gives you the steps to protect your retirement, your family, and your peace of mind. Get the 25-point checklist here. 3. Get Your Free Retirement Scorecard: Benchmark your retirement and wealth-building against hundreds of other practice professionals, and get personalized feedback on your biggest opportunities and leverage points. Click here to take the 3 minute assessment and get your scorecard.

Fiscal slippage, lower economic growth, sticky inflation, weaker dollar, steeper yield curve, financial instability; these are the key prognostications of Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar in our year-end podcast. President of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Sri is a deep thinker on macro trade strategies, and his forecasting track record is outstanding. Going into 2026, he is bearish both stocks and bonds, long vols and gold, and bearish the USD. He worries that the inevitable bursting of the AI-bubble and sticky inflation would cause stagflation and financial instability risks in the US next year. He is also concerned about the erosion of institutional strength in the US, from the central bank to the treasury to the statistical agencies. An unambiguously bleak outlook.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Growth is too low for comfort, inflation is too high. What are the prospects of the U.S. breaking out of its ‘stagflation-lite' zone in 2026? For this annual economic outlook, Vito Sperduto is joined by Chief Economist Frances Donald and U.S. Economist Michael Reid, to analyze the likely impact of the labor market, consumer sentiment, public spending, and other key trends.

On this December 12 episode, we turn to the latest JOLTS report and, more importantly, the decisions and tone emerging from the Federal Open Market Committee. Job openings surprised modestly on the upside, yet were largely unchanged from the previous month. The more telling signal came from the quits rate, a gauge the Federal Reserve treats as a window into the confidence of American workers. Quits have fallen to their lowest level since August 2020, when the economy was still in the teeth of the Covid 19 pandemic. The message is clear enough. Workers are reluctant to walk away from their positions because they doubt that opportunities exist elsewhere.Stagflation has made it increasingly difficult for the central bank to articulate a coherent strategy. Doves on the committee argue that a weakening labor market should outweigh inflationary concerns, particularly if the recent rise in prices proves transitory. Yet, as we note in this episode, monetary policy offers no free lunch. A steepening yield curve may in fact be the harbinger of near term economic strain and an accelerator of recession risk.

Tara dives into a massive economic and political reality check: stagflation, deflation myths, collapsing demand, and why promising falling prices is political suicide

Quick flip and pivot – Fed in focus. Stagflation alert – inflation remains sticky. Unemployment – ADP show massive losses in one category. Looking into the Prediction Markets with our guest, Andrew Wilkinson – Director of Trading Education at Interactive Brokers.  NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Andrew Wilkinson, Director of Trading Education at Interactive Brokers. Andrew joined Interactive Brokers in 2007 with a background in interest rate and derivative trading in the city of London during the 1990s. Andrew joined IBKR to create market commentary about stocks, options, forex and bonds for the website before helping create the IBKR Campus, which covers Traders' Insight, Traders' Academy, webinars, podcasts and a variety of other financial training for investors of all levels. Andrew has an MBA from Rollins College FL. Learn More at http://www.ibkr.com/funds Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ eNVESTOLOGY Info – https://envestology.com/ Stocks mentioned in this episode: (BTCUSD), (DIA), (SPY)

On this December 5th episode, we examine a raft of data releases that together sketch a disquieting portrait of the US economy. The latest ADP report showed the economy losing 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, while the Challenger Job Cuts report registered more than 70,000 layoffs—only the third time since 2008 that November cuts have exceeded that threshold. The Beige Book echoed this deterioration, noting that firms have moved beyond hiring freezes and begun outright reductions in headcount, a trend reinforced by the ISM Manufacturing survey.Markets initially rallied on the release of September's Personal Consumption Expenditures report, encouraged by strong headline figures. Yet the underlying details told a more troubling story. Real PCE and real disposable personal income were essentially flat on the month, and both the headline and core PCE Price Index appear to be drifting upward. Notably, nondurable goods prices surged on both monthly and annual measures—potentially reflecting tariff-related pressures—raising doubts that these increases will prove temporary.Taken together, the data continue to form a mosaic consistent with a stagflationary backdrop: weakening activity, softening labor demand, and price pressures that are proving stubborn rather than transitory.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper. In this wide-ranging discussion, Hunt presents a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape, focusing on precious metals, debt, and potential financial system transformations. Hunt argues that the world is experiencing a significant economic paradigm shift characterized by debt debasement and financial repression. He believes we are in the early stages of a precious metals bull market, with gold, silver, and particularly platinum presenting substantial investment opportunities. He emphasizes the scarcity of these metals, especially platinum, which he sees as dramatically undervalued compared to its rarity. The discussion explores the potential risks in the current financial system, particularly around AI investments and government interventions. Hunt is critical of government policies, viewing them as mechanisms designed to reduce individual economic freedom. He suggests that governments are likely to implement increasingly aggressive tax policies and financial controls, which he terms “tax scavenge mode.” Francis predicts a complex economic future characterized by “hyperstagflation” – a period of economic stagnation combined with inflationary pressures. He recommends investors protect themselves by holding physical precious metals, with gold as the foundation, followed by silver and platinum. He also suggests that mining stocks could provide opportunities, though they carry more volatility. Geopolitically, Hunt sees interesting developments with the BRICS nations potentially introducing a gold-backed currency, which could force Western economies to reconsider their monetary strategies. He’s particularly skeptical of government statistics and mainstream narratives, encouraging investors to look beyond official reports. Ultimately, Hunt’s message is one of cautious opportunity. While he sees significant economic challenges ahead, he believes informed investors can protect and potentially grow their wealth by understanding these trends and positioning themselves strategically in precious metals and select investments. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:50 – Precious Metals Bull Thesis 00:01:50 – Bull Market Top Criteria 00:03:45 – AI Contagion and Debasement 00:07:48 – Debt-Fiat Debasement Era 00:11:45 – Stablecoins and Bailouts 00:12:55 – Gold vs Bitcoin Liquidity 00:15:40 – US Gold Revaluation Skepticism 00:18:45 – BRICS Gold-Backed Currency 00:24:55 – Crisis Opportunity Strategies 00:27:20 – Silver Scarcity and Ratio 00:39:12 – Platinum Monetary Potential 00:45:29 – Hyperstagflation and Super-Cycle 00:55:48 – Market Sniper Wrap Up Guest Links: X: https://x.com/themarketsniper X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper Website: https://themarketsniper.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.

Scott Hoyt joins the podcast to provide a look into the holiday retail season and to discuss the state of the U.S. consumer more broadly. The team reviews the downbeat data on consumer confidence, the labor market, inflation and housing, and contemplates the implications for consumer spending this Christmas. The team remembers to take a listener question on income inequality and the mood gets even darker. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hundreds of property owners threatened with legal action under latest LEAP water plan. Trump's full 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan. The U.S. has quietly moved over 25% of our Navy fleet (including the massive USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group) into the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Greta Thunberg gets BANNED from Venice after climate activists poured green dye in the Grand Canal in the name of fighting climate change. Pete Hegseth considering to call Mark Kelly back to active duty, as the first step to a court martial. Amazon is throwing $15B into new data-center buildout in Indiana. A record 82 MILLION people are traveling for Thanksgiving. Blanket Basket for sale. What are people buying this Black Friday? Jack's Donuts bankruptcy. Group that owns restaurants in Indianapolis has been named in the Mark Sanchez lawsuit. X marks the spot: Platform’s new location tool outs fake Gaza accounts taking advantage of war. Risk of Stagflation in the Economy. Manimal and Redemption Monday on a Tuesday.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jack's Donuts bankruptcy. Group that owns restaurants in Indianapolis has been named in the Mark Sanchez lawsuit. X marks the spot: Platform’s new location tool outs fake Gaza accounts taking advantage of war. Risk of Stagflation in the Economy. Manimal and Redemption Monday on a Tuesday.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If only we had a real government shutdown. During the supposed shutdown, we have seen the formulation of several terrible economic and foreign policies. I begin with some bad news about this administration's coddling of Islamic figures. Next, we move on to the economy. We all complained throughout the Biden administration that we had a crony economy that only worked for a handful of tech companies and that a centrally controlled economy left hardworking Americans in the dust. We complained about stagflation under Biden and asserted that government reports were fraudulent. Well, what has changed? We're joined today by Tracy Shuchart, senior economist at NinjaTrader, who offers a fiscal checkup of our economy and shows how the stagflation is worse than ever. She offers analysis of capital markets, banking, commodities, and precious metals so we can navigate the limited investment options in an era of mob boss government control of our economy. Both parties complain about stagflation, but in reality, both parties support the underlying causes and they both deny it exists when their guy is in power.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices