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Some three weeks ago, longtime North Korea watchers Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker set off alarm bells from Washington to Seoul when they asserted that “like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war.” Their warnings in an article for the website 38 North have received widespread coverage in both ROK and U.S. media, and prompted even South Koreans accustomed to ignoring the DPRK to consider whether a repeat of the Korean War is on the horizon. But not everyone is convinced. Thomas Schäfer, the former German ambassador to the DPRK, argued against their thesis in a rebuttal, and the U.S. government has assessed that there are currently no signs of preparations for an imminent attack. This week, Carlin and Hecker join the NK News podcast to explain exactly why they see Pyongyang's recent war rhetoric as more than just empty bluster. They discuss why the DPRK has shifted away from seeking to normalize ties with the U.S., their views on what exactly Kim Jong Un is planning and how they've handled the overwhelming response to their article. Then, NK News CEO Chad O'Carroll shares his thoughts on Carlin and Hecker's argument and how North Korea could test the credibility of U.S. deterrence. Robert Carlin is a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center and a visiting scholar at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation. From both in and out of government, he has been following North Korea since 1974 and has made over 30 trips there. Siegfried Hecker is a distinguished professor of practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. He is director emeritus of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, where he served as director from 1986 to 1997 and as senior fellow until July 2005. About the podcast: The North Korea News Podcast is a weekly podcast hosted by Jacco Zwetsloot (@JaccoZed) exclusively for NK News, covering all things DPRK — from news to extended interviews with leading experts and analysts in the field, along with insight from our very own journalists.
Strategic empathy is the sincere effort to identify and assess patterns of behavior and the underlying drivers and constraints that shape those patterns. In a CT Collaborative-funded research project, a team from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at MIIS explored the utility of this concept for understanding the acquisition, threat, and use of strategic weapons. In this episode, we offer selections from a 2023 webinar describing the project's insights. Through case studies involving three US adversaries – Russia, North Korea, and Iran – the authors suggest that a more holistic, nuanced understanding of the adversary can inform effective policy responses. The CNS team included Sarah Bidgood, Robert Carlin, Siegfried Hecker, Jim Lamson, and Hanna Notte. You can read their full report at our website: https://www.middlebury.edu/conflict-transformation/supporting-faculty-research/spring-2022-grant-recipients
May 11, 2023 - Join us for a book talk with Dr. Siegfried Hecker, who discusses “his on-the-ground experience at the North's nuclear center at Yongbyon,” unpacking the ramifications of North Korea's technical developments in the context of fateful foreign policy decisions by Washington, Seoul, and Pyongyang. Dr. Hecker describes how “successive U.S. administrations have been unable to prevent the North, with the weakest of hands, from becoming one of only three countries in the world that might target the United States with nuclear weapons.” The discussion also includes a consideration of developments to the approach addressed in the summit meeting between US President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, and the debate around the potential for South Korea to acquire an indigenous deterrent. This program is moderated by Korea Society policy director Jonathan Corrado. For more information, please visit the link below: https://www.koreasociety.org/policy-and-corporate-programs/item/1675-hinge-points-an-inside-look-at-north-korea-s-nuclear-program
Amid heightened tensions between the US, North Korea, and South Korea in recent weeks, we produced a few episodes about nuclear ambitions and deterrence on the Korean peninsula. In our first episode, we featured the voice of Siegfried Hecker – he's a nuclear scientist and former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and author of a new book called Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Program. It's the story of how North Korea went from zero nuclear weapons in 2001, to an arsenal of nearly fifty in just twenty years. And it's an amazing story… because Sig was there to witness it firsthand… Guests: Siegfried Hecker, former Director of Los Alamos National Laboratory and professor emeritus at Stanford University Host: Ray Suarez Jim Falk If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.
The security alliance between the United States and South Korea dates back to the Cold War. At its heart is the containment of North Korea, one of three nuclear powers that could threaten the United States – and South Korea and Japan – with catastrophic nuclear war. Siegfried Hecker, the former Director of Los Alamos National Laboratory, identifies the moment North Korea became a nuclear power–and how the U.S. missed its chance to stop it. Then, Ray Suarez talks with Dr. Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to make sense of this escalating tension. Guests: Dr. Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Siegfried Hecker, former Director of Los Alamos National Laboratory and author of Hinge Points Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.
In the early 2000s, no one outside North Korea was quite sure about the extent of the country's nuclear program, whether it had plutonium for an atomic bomb and if then-leader Kim Jong Il was willing to risk a nuclear test. That changed in 2004, when North Korea invited Siegfried Hecker, longtime chief of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, to tour its Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center. Hecker found a nascent but highly advanced nuclear program, driven by talented scientists who acutely understood the technological processes behind plutonium reprocessing. This week, Hecker joins the NK News podcast to talk about his visits to Yongbyon and his new book exploring the DPRK's nuclear program. He explains why North Korea might prefer plutonium bombs to uranium ones, how many bombs the DPRK likely possesses and why he believes the deal put on the table at the U.S.-DPRK summit in Hanoi was the best chance to stop North Korea's nuclear program in decades. Dr. Siegfried Hecker (@SiegfriedHecker) was the fifth director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the premier U.S. nuclear research facility. He is also a senior fellow and professor emeritus at Stanford University. His new book “Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program” is now available. About the podcast: The North Korea News Podcast is a weekly podcast hosted by Jacco Zwetsloot (@JaccoZed) exclusively for NK News, covering all things DPRK — from news to extended interviews with leading experts and analysts in the field, along with insight from our very own journalists.
Debbie last spoke with Panos in January 2019 after meeting him in Ironman Hawaii 2018! Here is our past conversation- https://debbiepotts.net/pnoe-cardio-m... Who is Panos Papadiamantis? "I started my studies at the National Technical University of Athens, where I studied mechanical engineering. I then continued my studies at the Stanford School of Engineering, focusing on operations research and engineering management. During my stint at Stanford, I worked as a research assistant in the Center of International Security and Collaboration. There, I worked alongside Siegfried Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and William Perry, former Minster of Defence of the United States, in conducting research and risk analysis on nuclear technology and its implications on national security. Following my studies at Stanford, I worked as a product manager in IT infrastructure companies in Silicon Valley while always wanting to start my own company. Hence, when my cofounder and friend approached me with the idea of developing an affordable breath analysis device to analyze human metabolism with clinical precision, I jumped on board. As an engineer on paper and at heart, I was always fascinated by analyzing and understanding systems. Building PNOĒ exposed me to the most fascinating, uncharted, and misunderstood one, the human body. At PNOĒ, my colleagues and I have analyzed more than 100,000 metabolic profiles and helped more than 40,000 achieve better health and performance through metabolic-based recommendations founded on their metabolic profiles and recommendations supported by more than 1,000 peer-reviewed articles. PNOĒ is trusted by 3,000+ health professionals, world-class athletes such as Russel Wilson (NFL champion), Emma Raducanu (US Open champion), and Annie Thorisdottir (Crossfit Games champion), 100+ research centers and universities including MIT, UCLA, and Columbia University, as well as leading brands including Inbody and Spartan Racing." We chat about all things metabolic testing at rest and exercise... What does it mean to have a personalized program? How can breath analysis inform the main pillars of personalized programming How can breath reveal fuel usage and how can it help me become more fat efficient? How to test resting test- RMR - what do you find out? How does this help someone burn fat/lose weight? How do we test exercise metabolism- how to find fat burning, cross over and speed AT zones? Race pace? Training heart rates? How can we create an individualized program to match fueling to training and racing. Video link: https://youtu.be/kEWiDF8Mxr0 Debbie Potts The WHOLESTIC Method Program Burn Fat. Optimize Health. Improve Performance. Certified FDNP and FNTP Kion Coach, NASM CPT, CHEK HLC, USAT www.debbiepotts.net
In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Dr. Siegfried Hecker, former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory and current Distinguished Professor of Practice at CNS. Their conversation centers on Dr. Hecker's forthcoming book, Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2023). Dr. Hecker offers insights into the DPRK's dual-track strategy of diplomacy and nuclear development and highlights missed opportunities when Washington might have been able to channel Pyongyang toward the elimination of nuclear weapons and did not. He shares insights gleaned from his many visits to North Korea and reflects on both the future of US policy toward the DPRK and the importance of facilitating engagement between scientists and diplomats.
Panelists Rose Gottemoeller, Sam Charap, David Holloway, and Siegfried Hecker discuss the possible outcomes of the war in Ukraine as well as its grave implications for strategic stability and the global nuclear order.
After its independence, Kazakhstan had to deal with the legacy of being one of the centres of the Soviet Union's huge nuclear arsenal and nuclear weapons industry. There were particular concerns about the former nuclear testing site at Semipalatinsk, a vast swathe of contaminated land where there were tunnels with spent plutonium. When the Soviet Union ended in 1991, the site was left open to scavengers. Louise Hidalgo talks to the former head of America's nuclear weapons laboratory, Dr Siegfried Hecker, about the secret operation by Russian and American scientists to make the site safe; it's been called the greatest nuclear non-proliferation story never told. PHOTO: The Semipalatinsk site in 1991 (Getty Images)
The history of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions has see-sawed between crisis and hope. Bill Perry tells how close we came to war in 1994, and he and Philip Yun tell their story of negotiating directly with North Korea in the 1999 crisis. But their hopes were dashed as the deal they crafted was rejected by the new Bush administration. Dr. Siegfried Hecker describes his historic trips during the early 2000s to view the North Korean nuclear program up close, and Dr. Jeffrey Lewis describes what we know about today’s North Korean arsenal and ballistic missile program. Our guests offer their analysis of where we’re at now, and what is possible to accomplish going forward in dealing with a nuclear “Hermit Kingdom.”
After the June 12th meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, the US is pushing for rapid denuclearization. But, even in a best case scenario, what is a realistic timetable? And now that North Korea has nuclear military capabilities, how might the US encourage the North Koreans to develop nuclear energy for their electrical grid instead? Dr. Siegfried Hecker is the former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, a senior fellow at FSI, and an expert on denuclearization. He is also the only American scientist to have toured North Korea’s nuclear plants for enriching uranium. In this timely conversation with FSI director Michael McFaul, Hecker explains the logistical challenges of denuclearization, how the North Korean case is different from Iran, and what scenarios to watch for as the US contemplates a new relationship with the North Koreans.
After the June 12th meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, the US is pushing for rapid denuclearization. But, even in a best case scenario, what is a realistic timetable? And now that North Korea has nuclear military capabilities, how might the US encourage the North Koreans to develop nuclear energy for their electrical grid instead? Dr. Siegfried Hecker is the former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, a senior fellow at FSI, and an expert on denuclearization. He is also the only American scientist to have toured North Korea’s nuclear plants for enriching uranium. In this timely conversation with FSI director Michael McFaul, Hecker explains the logistical challenges of denuclearization, how the North Korean case is different from Iran, and what scenarios to watch for as the US contemplates a new relationship with the North Koreans.
Few Americans have ever been to North Korea. Even fewer have been inside one of the country’s nuclear weapons facilities. Siegfried Hecker, a professor at Stanford University and a former head of the Los Alamos National Laboratory made his first private visit in 2004 and went back again and again. In our podcast this week, he says what the North Koreans showed him and his team members “blew our socks off.” He can only speculate why they gave him access to the country’s most sensitive nuclear sites. “What they wanted to tell the Americans is, ‘okay, so you know we have…uranium capabilities to the bomb. And by the way, you’ll never know how much we have and you’ll never know where it all is.’” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Just before his dinner speech at Las Campanas Clubhouse, I was able to sit with the extraordinary Dr. Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos National Labs, and a pre-eminent expert on North Korea and its nuclear ambitions. How should President Trump approach the upcoming talks with Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un? What will be the effect of a new Secretary of State? What do the North Koreans really want?
Siegfried Hecker is a Metallurgist and Nuclear Scientist. He served as the director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory from 1986-1997 and is a professor at The Center For International Cooperation at Stanford University. One of the few people who have actually visited North Korea’s nuclear facilities, Hecker recently sat down with Miles To Go to discuss the development and capabilities of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
Not many people can say they've held North Korea's plutonium in their hands, but Siegfried Hecker has toured North Korea's nuclear facilities four times. He was the director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and has advised several U.S. presidents on nuclear security. Hecker tells us about North Korea's weapons capabilities and whether we're heading toward the world's first nuclear war. He is currently a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. For more on North Korea from Hecker and our other nuclear scholars, visit https://fsi.stanford.edu/content/north-korea-nuclear-situation. Faculty views do not necessarily represent those of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies or Stanford University, both of which are nonpartisan institutions.
One of the most potentially dangerous legacies of the collapse of the Soviet Union was its huge nuclear arsenal and nuclear weapons industry. There were particular concerns about the Soviets' former nuclear testing site at Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan, a vast swathe of contaminated land where there were tunnels with spent plutonium. When the Soviet Union ended, the site was left open to scavengers. Louise Hidalgo has been hearing from the former head of America's nuclear weapons laboratory, Dr Siegfried Hecker, about the long secret operation by Russian and American scientists to make the site safe in what's been called the greatest nuclear non-proliferation story never told.Photo: the first historic visit by American nuclear scientists to the secret Soviet city of Sarov where Moscow developed nuclear weapons, February 1992. First on the left is the great Russian physicist, Alexander Pavlovsky. Next, looking down, is Yuli Khariton, the father of the Soviet atomic bomb. Opposite, with a white turtle-neck jumper, is Dr Siegfreid Hecker, then director of Los Alamos Laboratory where America developed the world's first nuclear bomb (Credit: Dr Siegfreid Hecker)
One of the most potentially dangerous legacies of the collapse of the Soviet Union was its huge nuclear arsenal and nuclear weapons industry. There were particular concerns about the Soviets' former nuclear testing site at Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan, a vast swathe of contaminated land where there were tunnels with spent plutonium. When the Soviet Union ended, the site was left open to scavengers. Louise Hidalgo has been hearing from the former head of America's nuclear weapons laboratory, Dr Siegfried Hecker, about the long secret operation by Russian and American scientists to make the site safe in what's been called the greatest nuclear non-proliferation story never told. Photo: the first historic visit by American nuclear scientists to the secret Soviet city of Sarov where Moscow developed nuclear weapons, February 1992. First on the left is the great Russian physicist, Alexander Pavlovsky. Next, looking down, is Yuli Khariton, the father of the Soviet atomic bomb. Opposite, with a white turtle-neck jumper, is Dr Siegfreid Hecker, then director of Los Alamos Laboratory where America developed the world's first nuclear bomb (Credit: Dr Siegfreid Hecker)
What happens now with Russia? Panel discussion with former ambassador Michael McFaul, former defense secretary William Perry, former Los Alamos director Siegfried Hecker, and nuclear history professor David Holloway.
What happens now with Russia? Panel discussion with former ambassador Michael McFaul, former defense secretary William Perry, former Los Alamos director Siegfried Hecker, and nuclear history professor David Holloway.
This 21st issue of Spectrum features an address by the President of Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaoré, who became the first head of state to address the CTBTO Preparatory Commission at its 40th Session on 13 June 2013. Compaoré shares his vision for peace and international security in a world without nuclear weapons, calling on those remaining States that have not yet signed or ratified the CTBT to do so in order that the Treaty can become legally binding. He also describes the usefulness of CTBTO monitoring data which “are of great importance in defining effective responses to natural risks and disasters.” As Co-Presidents of the Conference on Facilitating the Entry into Force of the CTBT at the UN Headquarters in New York on 27 September, Hungary’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, János Martonyi, and Indonesia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Marty M. Natalegawa, explain why the CTBT’s entry into force is of paramount importance. Outlining their priorities in promoting this objective, Martonyi calls on the remaining Annex 2 States, especially the United States, to ratify. Appealing to the United States as a NATO partner, he states that “ratification by the United States is in no way detrimental to NATO’s nuclear deterrent, but that it would, on the contrary, enhance global security.” Expressing his concern over the nuclear tests announced by North Korea in 2006, 2009 and 2013 which have exacerbated tensions in the region, Natalegawa says: “Such nuclear tests highlight the urgent need for the CTBT’s entry into force “ Iceland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson, maintains: ‘It is abundantly clear that all non-proliferation efforts are critical in tackling the threat of terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons. A fully ratified and implemented CTBT is an indispensable building block for these efforts.” He also highlights the potential use of CTBT monitoring data in helping to mitigate the effects of natural or man-made disasters, particularly in terms of monitoring volcanic eruptions, which he explains is of great interest to Iceland. This issue also features excerpts of keynote addresses made at the CTBT: Science and Technology 2013 Conference in Vienna, Austria, in June 2013. These include: former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Hans Blix; former U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs, Ellen Tauscher; former Director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Siegfried Hecker; and Director for Strategic Affairs in the French Ministry of Defence, Michel Miraillet. The keynote speakers present a range of arguments as to why countries that have not yet ratified the CTBT should delay no longer. Miaki Ishii from Harvard University describes how the CTBTO’s seismic stations “serve unexpectedly well as powerful telescopes to view inside the Earth.” Detailed knowledge of the internal structure of the Earth is essential, she explains, for unravelling its dynamics and history. An article on ‘Joining forces to reduce radioxenon emissions’ highlights some of the recent collaboration between the CTBTO and radioisotope producers such as the Belgian-based Institute for Radioelements to achieve this goal. With preparations for the next Integrated Field Exercise in Jordan in 2014 well underway, Spectrum 21 features a photo story depicting ‘Build-Up Exercise III’ which took place in Hungary from 26 May to 7 June 2013. This exercise will simulate an on-site inspection almost in its entirety. Also on this theme, an article by the CTBTO’s Aled Rowlands describes the role of airborne imagery in an on-site inspection.
In this 19th issue, the Foreign Ministers of Chile and Finland, Alfredo Moreno and Erkki Toumioja, make a strong political pitch for the Treaty and also highlight the contribution of CTBT verification data for disaster mitigation. They are joined by two prominent South Asian thinkers: former UN Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs Jayantha Dhanapala, and Hindustan Times Foreign Editor Pramit Pal Chaudhuri. Nuclear physicist Siegfried Hecker explains why nuclear armed States stand to gain more than they lose from CTBT ratification and Tatsujiro Suzuki, Vice Chairman of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, provides an invaluable insight into the Fukushima accident. Elena Sokova from the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation explains why nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation education should be sustainable and global, with the CTBTO’s Capacity Development Initiative a welcome development in this field. Ik Bum Kang from the Korea Institute of GeoScience and Mineral Resources outlines some of the challenges of operating and maintaining primary seismic station PS31, one of the CTBTO’s closest station to the North Korean nuclear test site. Former CTBTO staff member Kirsten Haupt describes how practice makes future on-site inspection inspectors perfect, and guest writer Angela Leuker how the perception of nuclear war has changed over recent decades.