The woke mentality steals the ability for people to have gratitude. No matter how shitty the situation is, if we can cultivate a sense of gratitude, then it gives us the option of agency... ...I can be grateful for the challenge that I have, and then you can start moving forward, or you experience despair which means your progress has stopped and you're done. You're either going to die now or you're going to die later, but your situation isn't going to change. - Robb Wolf Are You Stressed Out Lately? Take a deep breath with the M21™ wellness guide: a simple yet powerful 21 minute morning system that melts stress and gives you more energy through 6 science-backed practices and breathwork. Click HERE to download for free. Is Your Energy Low? Get more superfoods to improve your energy, digestion, gut health plus also reduce inflammation and blood sugar. Click HERE to try Paleovalley's Apple Cider Vinegar Complex + Save 15% with the code 'JOSH' *Review The WF Podcast & WIN $150 in wellness prizes! *Join The Facebook Group Wellness + Wisdom Episode 492 A 2X New York Times Bestselling Author, Father, and Founder of Healthy Rebellion, Robb Wolf, comes for the 4th time on Wellness + Wisdom to talk about the current problems in our society, why he believes another crisis is coming, and what mental health means to him. Are you prepared to discover why nuclear energy is actually good for the planet and how you should get ready for another global crisis after COVID-19? In this episode, Robb and Josh discuss why it's important to be ready for the unpredictable, the role that community plays in everyday life and in crisis, and how changing your difficulties into strengths can change your life. Drink LMNT Click here to get your FREE LMNT Recharge Sample Pack (with any purchase!) A tasty electrolyte drink mix that is formulated to help anyone with their electrolyte needs and is perfectly suited to folks following a keto, low-carb, or paleo diet. For a limited time, get your LMNT Sample Pack with any purchase. Limit one per customer. Listen To Episode 492 As Robb Wolf Uncovers: [1:30] The Lack of Information about Energy Robb Wolf 103 Wired to Eat - Robb Wolf 357 Robb Wolf | Sacred Cow: The Case for (Better) Meat 403 Robb Wolf | Electrolytes: How Sodium, Potassium & Magnesium Help To Beat Brain Fog Ancestral Health Symposium 071 Food Freedom Forever With Melissa Hartwig Sacred Cow by Diana Rodgers and Robb Wolf Wired to Eat: Turn Off Cravings, Rewire Your Appetite for Weight Loss, and Determine the Foods That Work for You by Robb Wolf The Paleo Solution: The Original Human Diet by Robb Wolf Drink LMNT – Zero Sugar Hydration: Get your free LMNT Sample Pack with any purchase Gavin Newsom - California's Governor The energy difference between now and the 1800's. How everyone could escape poverty within the next 25 years and what role energy plays in it. Why energy and economy can contribute to a better world. How we have been making naive decisions regarding food and energy. Government and society: Making big decisions without understanding how the world works. Exploring the use of solar and wind energy. Doing the best you can with the information that you have. 463 JP Sears | This Is How Media HIJACKS Your Mind: Stop Censoring Yourself & Heal The Tyrant Within How you can harm others by lacking information and believing you're doing something good. What people say about the negative impacts of meat production. [11:40] Why Is Nuclear Power Good for The World? Naval Special Warfare Why solar and wind energies are intermittent and transient according to Robb. The shift in Europe's energies towards renewable resources. Why coal and natural gas have a lower carbon footprint than wood pallets. Greenwashing: Not all renewable resources are sustainable. Discussing nuclear accidents from the past: Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima. Gen 4 and 5 nuclear reactors: Safe nuclear power that is still disliked after the accidents. How nuclear power helps the world. Nuclear waste from Gen 1 nuclear reactors: Plutonium, uranium. Solar energy byproduct: Radioactive chemical Thorium. Exploring the use of Thorium. [17:22] Renewable Energy Is Not Enough for The World Carbon capture projects: Why we need huge amounts of energy to get rid of CO2 but there is an ironic twist to it. Wyoming Carbon Capture facility: Powered by wind and solar energies, and natural gas. Life Cycle Analysis: How the Carbon Capture facility will eventually generate more carbon than it removes. The ways we can implement the Biodynamic Model into nature restoration and preservation. Climate mitigating activities require a huge amount of energy that can't only be sourced from renewable sources. Why Robb believes solar and wind energies will always only be a piece of the energy we use. What could happen if we let things go to the extreme: The right-wing extreme restoring order and breaking society structure under a totalitarian regime. Why we should never waste a good crisis. [21:25] Creating a Community & Supporting Mental Health During CV-19 Josh explains why he renamed his podcast from Wellness Force to Wellness + Wisdom. The reason behind why Robb and his family moved from Texas to Montana. Healthy Rebellion Community How Robb leads the Healthy Rebellion Community, his family, and what he believes are the key ingredients for better mental health right now. How Robb started his podcast and community, Healthy Rebellion. Why he doesn't like the phrase “safe space.” Separating feelings from facts to maintain civilized conversations without forgetting to acknowledge the emotions that surge. Covid lockdown: The loss of freedom and the importance of community during the pandemic. [25:02] Emotional Support in Difficult Times Man's Search for Meaning by Viktor E. Frankl Why it's important to have a sense of agency, control of what's happening, and the ability to make decisions. Why Robb thinks that social media is to community what junk food is to real food. Josh shares what elements are missing when we meet online instead of in person. How the community helps Robb remain grounded and question conspiracy theories. Why, as a leader of the community, he has to make sure he gives correct insights. Finding emotional support in the community during difficult times. The Map of Consciousness Explained: A Proven Energy Scale to Actualize Your Ultimate Potential by David R. Hawkins Sadness disguised as rage and fear: Why anger is more powerful than despair. Arnold Schwarzenegger: Terminator quote - “Anger is more useful than despair.” [29:00] Robb's Childhood & Living through Adversity The Paleo Solution: The Original Human Diet by Robb Wolf How Robb's book from 2010 applies to right now. His background: Unhealthy family, gut issues, and poverty. The privilege of being born a white male in the U.S.A. at the end of the 20th century. Unpacking the social stigma of being on government financial support. How can social welfare turn into multigenerational traps. Adversity now vs then: How adversity has become a badge of honor. Why Robb believed he could get the American Dream through hard work. [32:56] How a Strong Community Helped Cambodians Overcome Obstacles The story of Robb's Cambodian friend: Escaping the country to survive during a civil war. Khmer Rouge (a radical communist movement that ruled Cambodia from 1975 to 1979) - ⅓ of Cambodia was killed by them. The Killing Fields How the Cambodian community in the U.S. helped Robb's friend start from scratch and create several businesses. Rodney King Riots (Los Angeles, 1992) - The Cambodians had bunkers and were ready to defend their families and community. The journey from nothing to success: The importance of having an intact culture, work ethics, and nuclear family. [35:38] Exploring Today's Modern Mentality Why Robb thinks that the woke mentality steals the ability to have gratitude and how cultivating gratitude creates a sense of agency. Unpacking why the woke mentality is a source of mental health issues. How children are being told that they are victimized instead of being encouraged to get through the issue. Virtue Signaling Olympics: Why we have to justify our suffering. [38:00] Teaching the Fundamentals in Order to Master a Skill Robb tells a childhood story about being shamed for using food stamps to buy food and how it changed the trajectory of his life. The Matrix: Why is Neo the one? Patrick Bet-David Jordan Peterson Breaking the family patterns and why Robb thinks he's “the one” in his own family to end the cycle. Robb's post on Instagram about his daughters: How it describes what it means to be mentally healthy. The challenges of homeschooling for Robb's daughters. Robb's experience having to write 10,000 words about a brick wall: How reframing the process made it easy. How his daughters, Zoe and Sagan, went from struggling with writing to enjoying it that they each wrote a 5-page letter to their cousin. Why the beginning is the hardest part: Teaching his daughters to do the fundamentals to be able to develop the skills. [44:10] The Power of Turning Our Difficulties into Strengths The difficulty of building something online and the reason he abandoned social media. Why Robb believes every situation can be improved or changed. Kyle Maynard: How being born without arms and legs didn't stop him from climbing Kilimanjaro and becoming a New York Times Best-Selling author No Excuses: The True Story of a Congenital Amputee Who Became a Champion in Wrestling and in Life by Kyle Maynard Multigenerational trap: How fighting against inequity makes the situation worse and creates division. Our experience witnessing the experiments being placed on society right now. Why Josh thinks humanity is in a hard struggle right now but something beautiful is coming our way. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy by William Strauss [47:57] What Happens If the System Fails? Why Western liberal democracies are lost in historical events according to Robb and what he thinks would happen if Chinese communism became a global norm. Pitting people against each other with the example of Muslims in China. Brave New World by Aldous Huxley 1984 by George Orwell Why Robb believes that it's possible that humanity falls under a strictly controlled regime, but doesn't think it will actually happen. How the economic system compares to a train and why he thinks the system is broken. Chris Martenson How urban centers will suffer when economics, energy, or food systems collapse. [52:18] Covid Pandemic: Facing a Real Global Crisis Robb on moving to Montana: Finding a strong community in his neighborhood. Why do we not know our neighbors and how can we change that to strengthen the community? How the suffering in the 1920s and 1930s in the USA shifted from starvation, no work, and homelessness to prosperity. The potential threats of Covid: Why it's important to have the understanding of what could potentially happen. Missing opportunities by fearing a potential economic crisis. How Rob dealt with the Covid pandemic without fear, why he expected it to happen, and why people who don't expect dislocations to happen suffer the most. How a global crisis could bring people together and improve the food system. [57:28] Eliminating Unpredictability Josh talks about nature's strategy that we can use as inspiration to help us prepare for a crisis. How to prepare for unpredictable situations and why redundancy is beneficial during emergencies. Texas snowpocalypse 2022 iCaveman Show: Why he would never do that again: Starving himself for 2 weeks, losing 20 pounds. Morgan Spurlock: Super Size Me Why Robb's family makes extra portions almost every time they cook, freeze-dry them, and then store them in the freezer. Nutrients in freeze-dried and frozen foods: Do frozen foods conserve their nutritional value? The reason Robb bought an air rifle and invested in firearm training. The precautions he took at his home to prepare in case of an emergency: a generator, a small solar panel, a pellet stove, a small woodstove, having a water well with a simple pump, and living close to a lake. How the Healthy Rebellion community supports each other in urban areas. Why it's enough to spend 5-10% of our time over a month creating redundancy for emergencies and maintaining it afterward. Selco Begovic mentions in his book about the Serbian civil war a list of necessities, including tradable items. [1:08:07] Debt-Driven Economy: Is an Economic Collapse Only a Matter of Time? Diana Rodgers Bankless Podcast Breaking Free: How to Work at Home with the Perfect Small Business Opportunity by Brian Armstrong Unraveling of finance: Why is it a good thing? Chris Martenson's Crash Course Modern Monetary Theory Debt-driven economy: Paying debt with debt and the need for economic growth to maintain this system working. Unpacking the constant fluctuation of interest rates. How Richard Nixon took the USA off the gold standard in 1971. Why countries with non-debaseable currencies do well economically and how loaning against their currency makes the system collapse. What Robb believes to happen once the system collapses, and why he's more scared of a financial implosion than a civil war. [1:12:40] The Dangers of Cryptocurrencies and Stocks Why community is important for survival. Two questions Robb asks himself before getting into something new: Does it enrich our lives today and can it be helpful in the future? Crash of crypto and stock markets: How is the economic system being manipulated by the big players to keep themselves rich? 442 Robert Breedlove | Blockchain Wellness: How To Use Bitcoin For Your Freedom, Health & Vitality AI makes the majority of crypto transactions: Are we letting robots dictate our lives? [1:16:00] Investment, Prosperity, and Community How Rob and his wife Nikki manage their finances and investments. Investing in silver and gold: Why is silver a commodity that will never go away? Why he thinks investing a smaller part of your finances into index funds, stocks, or crypto can be good. What makes land such a great investment plus how a strong community can be beneficial in times of a financial crisis and investment. Finding community and making connections in sports clubs. [1:20:14] Acknowledging The Potential in Others Robb in his 20's: Proving to himself and the world that he matters and can be successful, and what he would do differently if he could. Dysfunctional family mechanism: How he made it work for himself. Acknowledging talent and potential: Letting people know they matter. How can mentors give meaningful wisdom and why genuine desire of the recipient plays an important role in reaching greatness. Mike Dillard: Creating an authentic community where people don't want to get anything from one another, only give to one another. [1:25:13] Remembering to Live in The Present Moment Becoming comfortable with success and remembering to live and being in the moment. Investing in our downside risk mitigation: Why Robb thinks he has invested too much time preparing for the end of the world instead of preparing for a better world. Robb's books: The Paleo Solution, Wired to Eat, Sacred Cow Upcoming book “Consequence Economy”: How good intentions and lack of understanding can go horribly wrong. What wellness means to Robb now in 2022: Prioritizing the things he really wants to do and learning to say “no” to what he doesn't want in his life. 216 Exploring The Shadow Self For Healing: George Bryant Robbwolf.com Power Quotes From The Show Our Debt-Driven Economy "There will be a chunk of debt, then we take out loans to pay that debt, and then we're paying debt with debt. The thing about that is that you need a certain rate of economic growth to keep that system going. If you don't have a certain rate of economic growth, then the whole system collapses." - Robb Wolf Being Ready For The Unpredictable "There will be a lot of dislocation, a lot of pain, and the people that are going to suffer the most are the people that didn't realize this was an eventuality. They didn't realize there was a possibility of a really rainy day, and maybe a rainy month, or a rainy decade. So they're going to be surprised, and they're going to be bitter, and that's going to make them really ineffective, strap themselves, and lean into the community that they have and help each other. The bright side of that, people will be more networked in the real world. People will care more of each other." - Robb Wolf Downside Risk Mitigation "There are a lot of folks that are afraid of facing some of these darker realities because of the anxiety they produce just thinking about economic stuff and global upheaval. But a little bit of investment in downside risk mitigation really helps you sleep at night. But then the advice I need, and what I've been realizing, I've been too good at that, I've invested too much in that. I've been preparing too much for the end of the world instead of preparing for a better world." - Robb Wolf Links From Today's Show Robb Wolf 103 Wired to Eat - Robb Wolf 357 Robb Wolf | Sacred Cow: The Case for (Better) Meat 403 Robb Wolf | Electrolytes: How Sodium, Potassium & Magnesium Help To Beat Brain Fog Ancestral Health Symposium 071 Food Freedom Forever With Melissa Hartwig Sacred Cow by Diana Rodgers and Robb Wolf Wired to Eat: Turn Off Cravings, Rewire Your Appetite for Weight Loss, and Determine the Foods That Work for You by Robb Wolf The Paleo Solution: The Original Human Diet by Robb Wolf Drink LMNT – Zero Sugar Hydration: Get your free LMNT Sample Pack,with any purchase Gavin Newsom - California's Governor 463 JP Sears | This Is How Media HIJACKS Your Mind: Stop Censoring Yourself & Heal The Tyrant Within Naval Special Warfare Wyoming Carbon Capture facility Man's Search for Meaning by Viktor E. Frankl The Map of Consciousness Explained: A Proven Energy Scale to Actualize Your Ultimate Potential by David R. Hawkins Arnold Schwarzenegger Khmer Rouge The Killing Fields Rodney King Riots The Matrix: Why is Neo the one? Patrick Bet-David Jordan Peterson Robb's post on Instagram Kyle Maynard No Excuses: The True Story of a Congenital Amputee Who Became a Champion in Wrestling and in Life by Kyle Maynard The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy by William Strauss Brave New World by Aldous Huxley 1984 by George Orwell Chris Martenson Texas snowpocalypse 2022 iCaveman Show Morgan Spurlock: Super Size Me Selco Begovic Diana Rodgers Bankless Podcast Breaking Free: How to Work at Home with the Perfect Small Business Opportunity by Brian Armstrong Chris Martenson's Crash Course Modern Monetary Theory 442 Robert Breedlove | Blockchain Wellness: How To Use Bitcoin For Your Freedom, Health & Vitality Mike Dillard 216 Exploring The Shadow Self For Healing: George Bryant Shop the Wellness Force Media Store breathwork.io Paleovalley – Save 15% on your ACV Complex with the code ‘JOSH' Seeking Health - Save 10% with the code 'JOSH' Organifi – Special 20% off to our listeners with the code ‘WELLNESSFORCE' Drink LMNT – Zero Sugar Hydration: Get your free LMNT Sample Pack,with any purchase Feel Free from Botanic Tonics – Save 40% when you use the code ‘WELLNESS40' PLUNGE - Save $150 with the code "WELLNESSFORCE' MitoZen - Save 10% with the code "WELLNESSFORCE" Activation Products - Save 20% with the code "WELLNESSFORCE" Essential Oil Wizardry: Save 10% with the code 'WELLNESSFORCE' Cured Nutrition – Get 15% off of your order when you visit wellnessforce.com/cured + use the code ‘WELLNESSFORCE' M21 Wellness Guide Wellness Force Community Leave Wellness Force a review on iTunes Robb Wolf Instagram Twitter Facebook Healthy Rebellion Community About Robb Wolf Robb Wolf, a former research biochemist is the 2X New York Times/WSJ Best Selling author of The Paleo Solution and Wired To Eat. Robb has transformed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people around the world via his top ranked iTunes podcast, books, and seminars. Robb has functioned as a review editor for the Journal of Nutrition and Metabolism (Biomed Central) and as a consultant for the Naval Special Warfare Resiliency program. He serves on the board of Directors/Advisors for Specialty Health Inc, The Chickasaw Nation's “Unconquered Life” initiative, and a number of innovative start-ups with a focus on health and sustainability. Robb holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu and is a former California State Powerlifting Champion (565 lb. Squat, 345 lb. Bench, 565 lb. Dead Lift) and a 6-0 amateur kickboxer. Wolf has provided seminars in nutrition and strength & conditioning to a number of entities including NASA, Naval Special Warfare, the Canadian Light Infantry, and the United States Marine Corps. Robb lives in Texas with his wife Nicki and daughters Zoe and Sagan.
This week on Krewe of Japan Podcast... the Krewe is back full steam ahead on a travel train (plane?) and this time we are taking a more prefecture-specific approach like past seasons! Joined by returning guests Kay Allen of Japan National Tourism Organization & Megan DeVille of JETAA USA , we explore the prefecture of Aomori and everything it has to offer. From Hirosaki Castle & Nebuta Matsuri to apple cidre, Tsuruga Jamisen restaurants, & the tomb of Jesus Christ (what?), there's so much to learn and love about this prefecture! Bring your notebook, because this episode is jam-packed with ideas and travel tips for your next trip to Japan!------ About the Krewe ------The Krewe of Japan Podcast is a weekly episodic podcast sponsored by the Japan Society of New Orleans. Check them out every Friday afternoon around noon CST on Apple, Google, Spotify, Amazon, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts. Want to share your experiences with the Krewe? Or perhaps you have ideas for episodes, feedback, comments, or questions? Let the Krewe know by e-mail at email@example.com or on social media (Twitter: @kreweofjapan, Instagram: @kreweofjapanpodcast, Facebook: Krewe of Japan Podcast Page, TikTok: @kreweofjapanpodcast, & the Krewe of Japan Youtube Channel). Until next time, enjoy!------ More Info on JNTO ------Japan National Travel Organizaiton's WebsiteJNTO on InstagramJNTO on YouTubeJNTO on TwitterTohoku Kanko Website------ More Info on JET Program ------JET Program Website (Application Page)JETAA (JET Program Alumni Association) USA WebsiteUSJETAA Website
Giselle and Iulia are joined by Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a Washington-based nonprofit organization focused on strategic weapons proliferation issues, to explain why Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia power plant and Russian attacks on it should be - and then remain - headline news. Henry outlines the dangers of compromised nuclear power plants and the serious implications of vulnerabilities. He explains how the Russians' attacks on the power plant, specifically, are raising concerns over a Fukushima-like nuclear disaster occurring in Ukraine, and he considers the Russians' goals through these attacks. He discuss the billions of dollars in costs to build nuclear power plants and the politics surrounding them, especially in considering how to reconstruct more resilient Ukrainian power plants. Lastly, Henry shares practical advice for the United States government and Ukraine in pursuing energy security and resilience. Show notes: "Present Danger: Nuclear Plants in War" by Henry D. Sokolski.
The "out of the ordinary" case, as described by our guest, Amber Keating, happened in 1989 in Fukushima, Japan where a deceased man was found in the collection tank of a squat toilet. The story has become a mainstay of mystery blogs, reddit posts, and youtube videos, but authentic sources for research are hard to come by. Regardless, it's a worthy mystery. If it's true, how and why did the man crawl into the small, gross pipes? Guest Amber Keating is a licensed clinical social worker and mental health clinician. Find Amber on instagram @amber.says.shine and https://www.pacificmft.com/amber-keating. Visit our sponsor here: https://www.audibletrial.com/strange Join Patreon for exclusive content https://www.patreon.com/astudyofstrange Theme Music by Matt Glass https://www.glassbrain.com/ Instagram: @astudyofstrange Website: www.astudyofstrange.com Hosted by Michael May Email stories, comments, or ideas to firstname.lastname@example.org! ©2022 Convergent Content, LLC ------- Sources: https://inf.news/en/world/8327e4d966753258ab639433a5a25c97.html https://medium.com/illumination/the-man-under-the-toilet-cff342c69b27 https://inf.news/en/world/8327e4d966753258ab639433a5a25c97.html https://daydaynews.cc/en/international/724025.html https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueCrimeDiscussion/comments/lyrbq9/a_young_japanese_man_was_found_dead_in_a_septic/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9ed5C39riE&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8giz1eNKznE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SXLFSxZjmI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGPnjq2yw9E https://medium.com/illumination/the-man-under-the-toilet-cff342c69b27
The paper's abstract reads:This paper reflects on the credibility of nuclear risk assessment in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima meltdown. In democratic states, policymaking around nuclear energy has long been premised on an understanding that experts can objectively and accurately calculate the probability of catastrophic accidents. Yet the Fukushima disaster lends credence to the substantial body of social science research that suggests such calculations are fundamentally unworkable. Nevertheless, the credibility of these assessments appears to have survived the disaster, just as it has resisted the evidence of previous nuclear accidents. This paper looks at why. It argues that public narratives of the Fukushima disaster invariably frame it in ways that allow risk-assessment experts to “disown” it. It concludes that although these narratives are both rhetorically compelling and highly consequential to the governance of nuclear power, they are not entirely credible. Discussion Points:Following up on a topic in episode 100 - nuclear safety and risk assessmentThe narrative around planes, trains, cars and nuclear - risks vs. safetyPlanning for disaster when you've promised there's never going to be a nuclear disasterThe 1975 WASH-1400 StudiesJapanese disasters in the last 100 yearsFour tenets of Downer's paper:The risk assessments themselves did not fail Relevance Defense: The failure of one assessment is not relevant to the other assessmentsCompliance Defense: The assessments were sound, but people did not behave the way they were supposed to/did not obey the rulesRedemption Defense: The assessments were flawed, but we fixed themTheories such as: Fukushima did happen - but not an actual ‘accident/meltdown' - it basically withstood a tsunami when the country was flattenedResidents of Fukushima - they were told the plant was ‘safe'The relevance defense, Chernobyl, and 3 Mile IslandBoeing disasters, their risk assessments, and blameAt the time of Fukushima, Japanese regulation and engineering was regarded as superiorThis was not a Japanese reactor! It's a U.S. designThe compliance defense, human errorThe redemption defense, regulatory bodies taking all Fukushima elements into accountDowner quotes Peanuts comics in the paper - lessons - Lucy can't be trusted!This paper is not about what's wrong with risk assessments- it's about how we defend what we doTakeaways:Uncertainty is always present in risk assessmentsYou can never identify all failure modesThree things always missing: anticipating mistakes, anticipating how complex tech is always changing, anticipating all of the little plastic connectors that can breakAssumptions - be wary, check all the what-if scenariosJust because a regulator declares something safe, doesn't mean it isAnswering our episode question: You must question risk assessments CONSTANTLY Quotes:“It's a little bit surprising we don't scrutinize the ‘control' every time it fails.” - Drew“In the case of nuclear power, we're in this awkward situation where, in order to prepare emergency plans, we have to contradict ourselves.” - Drew“If systems have got billions of potential 'billion to one' accidents then it's only expected that we're going to see accidents from time to time.” - David“As the world gets more and more complex, then our parameters for these assessments need to become equally as complex.” - David“The mistakes that people make in these [risk assessments] are really quite consistent.” - Drew Resources:Disowning Fukushima Paper by John DownerWASH-1400 StudiesThe Safety of Work PodcastThe Safety of Work on LinkedInFeedback@safetyofwork
This week on Krewe of Japan Podcast... with the borders re-opened, the Krewe is on a travel kick lately (and is ALWAYS on a food kick)... so this week the Krewe put the two together! Joined by Shinichi of TabiEats YouTube Channel fame, we explore Japan with a food-focused filter. From crazy vending machines to a cuisine breakdown by region, this episode will help you figure out how to plan your trips around your meals... and not the other way around! ITADAKIMASU! ------ About the Krewe ------The Krewe of Japan Podcast is a weekly episodic podcast sponsored by the Japan Society of New Orleans. Check them out every Friday afternoon around noon CST on Apple, Google, Spotify, Amazon, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts. Want to share your experiences with the Krewe? Or perhaps you have ideas for episodes, feedback, comments, or questions? Let the Krewe know by e-mail at email@example.com or on social media (Twitter: @kreweofjapan, Instagram: @kreweofjapanpodcast, Facebook: Krewe of Japan Podcast Page, TikTok: @kreweofjapanpodcast, & the Krewe of Japan Youtube Channel). Until next time, enjoy!------ More Info on Shinichi & TabiEats ------Shinichi on InstagramShinichi's World on InstagramTabiEats on InstagramTabiEats YouTube ChannelShinichi's World YouTube ChannelI Will Always Travel For Food YouTube Channel
Au-delà du débat sur la pertinence d'exploiter l'énergie du nucléaire, il faut savoir que la problématique cruciale de la sécurité est bien connue. On identifie sept principes, sept piliers de la sécurité nucléaire, des piliers rappelés par l'Agence Internationale de l'Énergie Atomique cet été durant la guerre en Ukraine. Quels sont ces règles? Et lesquelles sont actuellement bafouées à Zaporijia?Pour de l'information concernant l'utilisation de vos données personnelles - https://omnystudio.com/policies/listener/fr
La energía nuclear se alza como protagonista en Europa, ¿hay un renacimiento de este tipo de energía después de lo ocurrido en Fukushima, en 2011? Charlamos con Massimo Maoret, profesor de geopolítica y transición energética del IESE Business School. La globalización tiene un gran impacto en las áreas urbanas. ¿Cómo han cambiado nuestras urbes a consecuencia de la pandemia? ¿Cómo serán las ciudades del futuro? Se lo preguntamos al urbanista, Francesc Muñoz.
David Jiménez, fue corresponsal de guerra y director de uno de los periódicos más importantes de España, El Mundo, pero un año después de su nombramiento fue cesado por no doblegarse a los poderosos que dominan el país y querían manipularlo. David explicará a Jordi Wild quién manda realmente en España, como la prensa está comprada, el poder real de Florentino Pérez y el palco del Bernabéu... Pero también contará historias de sus viajes y reportajes por el mundo, como cuando se infiltró en Corea del Norte, convivió con caníbales, estuvo en la central nuclear de Fukushima cuando explotó, casi lo matan en Timor Oriental... y mucho más. ¡No te lo pierdas! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Tomasz Ilnicki o groźbach atomowych Putina, sytuacji w Zaporoskiej Elektrowni Jądrowej i bezzasadności profilaktycznego zażywania płynu Lugola i jodku potasu. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/radiownet/message
Der erste große Reaktorunfall ereignete sich nicht in Harrisburg, Tschernobyl oder Fukushima – sondern im britischen Windscale, heute bekannt als Sellafield. Die britische Regierung versuchte den massiven Störfall zu vertuschen.
Der erste große Reaktorunfall ereignete sich nicht in Harrisburg, Tschernobyl oder Fukushima - sondern im britischen Windscale, heute bekannt als Sellafield. Doch die britische Regierung versuchte den massiven Störfall zu vertuschen und zu verharmlosen, so dass die Beinah-Katastrophe bis in die 1990er Jahre praktisch unbekannt blieb... Autor: Wolfgang Burgmer Von Wolfgang Burgmer.
Nuclear History Education for Kids This Week’s Featured Interview: Illinois has become the first state in the nation to mandate the teaching of Asian American History for grades K-12. The intent is to combat hate crimes and racial discrimination against Asian Americans, which grew exponentially during the Covid 19 pandemic. As nuclear plays a major...
Le Japon dépend encore beaucoup des énergies fossiles. La place prépondérante occupée par le pétrole et le charbon pose aux autorités un problème d'autant plus préoccupant que, pour l'essentiel, ces deux sources d'énergie sont importées. Par ailleurs, depuis la catastrophe qui a touché la centrale de Fukushima, en 2011, le nucléaire est moins considéré comme une énergie d'avenir. C'est la raison pour laquelle le Japon a beaucoup investi dans des énergies renouvelables, comme le solaire ou l'éolien. L'accent vient d'être mis, cependant, sur une nouvelle source d'énergie renouvelable, dont on attend des résultats encore plus probants. Il s'agit d'une turbine électrique sous-marine, qui doit fonctionner grâce au courant marin de Kuroshio, ce qui signifie "courant noir". Ce courant, le deuxième plus important au monde, transporte des eaux chaudes tropicales vers le Nord. Pour l'instant, le dispositif est à l'essai. La force du courant marin Le dispositif repose donc sur une turbine de grande dimension, immergée à une profondeur de 30 à 50 mètres. Malgré son poids de plus de 300 tonnes, cet engin est capable de flotter, et même de se placer là où le courant marin est le plus fort. Pour entretenir ou réparer la turbine, il est même possible de la ramener à la surface de l'eau. Cette machinerie d'un genre nouveau, équipée de grands ventilateurs, pourra donc profiter de la force d'un des courants les plus puissants du monde. C'est pourquoi ses concepteurs fondent de grands espoirs dans cette turbine. En effet, Elle pourrait, à terme, produire environ 60 % de la production d'énergie du Japon. Et le pays semble bien placé pour profiter de la force du "courant noir". Ce qui, a priori, fait de ce dispositif une source d'énergie très sûre. Bien sûr, il faudra compter avec les conditions particulières qui régissent l'installation d'équipements "offshore". En la matière, le Japon a moins d'expérience que certains pays européens, qui exploitent depuis longtemps le pétrole sous-marin. Si l'essai est concluant, le Japon aura fait un pas de plus vers l'objectif qu'il s'est fixé : atteindre, avec cette énergie verte et propre, le "zéro carbone". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In der Gemeinde Oberlunkhofen im Kanton Aargau muss der Strom am freien Markt gekauft werden – damit ist man den aktuell horrenden Strompreisschwankungen ausgeliefert. Warum eigentlich? Mit drei Atomkraftwerken gilt der Kanton Aargau schliesslich als der Atom-Kanton der Schweiz. Weiter: * Dieses Tempo ist man sich nicht gewohnt. Innert weniger Wochen hat das Parlament ein neues Gesetz beschlossen, dass den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien vorantreibt: Damit können in den Alpen sehr rasch zwei neue grosse Photovoltaikanlagen gebaut und die Grimsel-Staumauer erhöht werden. Doch Juristen und Juristinnen treten gegenüber Radio SRF auf die Bremse: Dieses Gesetz verletze die Verfassung. * In Japan werden Pläne für neue Atomkraftwerke konkreter. Rund 11 Jahre nach der Nuklearkatastrofe von Fukushima sollen die neuartigen Anlagen sicherer sein als die bisherigen. Die japanische Regierung hat angekündigt, dass sie diese AKWs der nächsten Generation fördern will. * In Iran gehen die Menschen seit zwei Wochen auf die Strasse: gegen das Regime, gegen die Kleidervorschriften für Frauen. Sie protestieren, obwohl das Regime brutal gegen sie vorgeht. Menschenrechtsorganisationen sprechen von bis zu 80 Toten. Der iranische Präsident Ebrahim Raisi hat sich unterdessen geäussert, mit teils widersprüchlichen Aussagen.
Das Wackeln der Bankentürme, die Eurokrise, Fukushima. Terror – in aller Welt und daheim, die Enttarnung des NSU. Die Annexion der Krim, die „Flüchtlingskrise“ und schließlich die Corona-Pandemie – die Ära Merkel ist nahezu permanent im Krisenmodus.Feature-Serie von Stephan Detjen und Tom Schimmeckwww.deutschlandfunkkultur.de, Das FeatureDirekter Link zur Audiodatei
Namibiese ekonoom Robin Sherbourne sê in sy Staat van die Namibiese Ekonomie daar is sekere faktore buite Namibië se beheer wat gelei het tot ‘n gebrek aan ekonomiese groei sedert 2016. Die faktore buite beheer is onder meer die daling in die uraanprys ná Fukushima in 2011, mineraalpryse, myn-sluitings, die droogtes in 2013, 2016 en 2019, ekonomiese verlangsamings in Angola en Suid-Afrika vanaf 2016, en die Covid-pandemie vanaf Maart 2020 tot Julie 2022. Sherbourne praat oor uraan- en oliepryse. Hy voeg by met faktore binne ons beheer, het die Namibiese regering nie ernstige en goeie beleidsbesluite geneem nie.
Increased Child Leukemia Rates Near Nuclear Reactors: Dr. Ian Fairlie This Week’s Featured Interview: Child leukemia rates near nuclear reactors have been shown to increase in 2014 report by Dr. Ian Fairlie. He is an independent consultant on radioactivity in the environment living in London UK and has studied radiation and radioactivity at least since the Chernobyl accident in...
The time and dedication that it takes to make mokuhanga is well known. And if it isn't then it really should be. It feels that it's easy to follow social media, and watch the pretty prints come out of nowhere, but behind all those nice pictures is a lot of hard work, and dedication. One person who is a prime example of this hard work, dedication and passion for the craft, is Lucy May Schofield. Based in England, Lucy has been making mokuhanga for some time. She has travelled the world, using her environment, and her passion to create mokuhanga that is expressive and powerful. On this episode of The Unfinished Print, I speak with Lucy about how she discovered mokuhanga, her time at MI Lab, Lucy's love of bokashi, and her mokuhanga relationships; those that have helped her along the way. Lucy also speaks on the Mokuhanga Sisters Collective, how grants and scholarships assist in Lucy's artistic pursuits, as well as how her other artistic endeavours affect her mokuhanga. Lucy's is a story which explores independence, pilgrimage, freedom, and how it affects a persons life. Please follow The Unfinished Print and my own mokuhanga work on Instagram @andrezadoroznyprints Twitter @unfinishedprint, or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org Artists works follow after the note about them. Notes: may contain a hyperlink. Simply click on the highlighted word or phrase. Artists works follow after the note. Lucy May Schofield - website, Instagram Rebecca Salter - is the President of The Royal Academy of Arts, in London, England. She is also an artist who has written two books about Japanese woodblock printing, Japanese Woodblock Printing (2001), and Japanese Popular Prints (2006). She worked with the Satō Woodblock Print Workshop, documenting their process. Her interview with The Unfinished Print can be found, here. Untitled 2015-14 (2015) Royal Academy of Arts - is an English art institution which as been in operation for 250 years. More info, here. Fukuoka, Prefecture, Japan - is a Prefecture in the second most southern part of the Japanese archipelago. It is known for is temples, hot springs, and natural beauty. Fukuoka tourist website, here. kotatsu - is a low table, electrically heated by an internal heater underneath the table itself, more info, here. Munakata Shikō (志功棟方) - (1903-1975) arguably one of the most famous modern printmakers, Shiko is famous for his prints of women, animals, the supernatural, and Buddhist deities. He made his prints with an esoteric fervour where his philosophies about mokuhanga were just as interesting as his print work. Hizakura no Saku (1978) colour lithograph New Year Card - called nengajo (年賀状) in Japanese, these cards have been traditionally passed from person to person since the Heian Period (794-1185). Mokuhanga practitioners make them as well, creating a new one every year focusing on the zodiac sign of the year as a theme. shina - is a type of wood used in mokuhanga. It is part of the linden family of trees. This wood is produced in various parts of the world, such as Japan and Russia. Not all shina is created equal so buyer beware. magnolia wood - a straight grained hard wood located in North America and Asia. more info, here. washi paper - (和紙) is a type of Japanese paper made with the fibres of either gampi, mitsumata, or mulberry. It is versatile and can be used in many ways. International Mokuhanga Conference - is a bi-yearly conference dedicated to mokuhanga which started in 2011 by the International Mokuhanga Association. Each conference is themed. The latest conference was in 2021, delayed a year because of the pandemic. More information can be found, here. Ralph Kiggell (1960-2022) - was one of the most important mokuhanga practitioners to have made work. Originally from England, Ralph lived and worked in Thailand. Ralph pushed the boundaries of mokuhanga with extremely large pieces, jigsaw carving, and by using fantastic colour for his work. He also worked with the International Mokuhanga Conference to promote mokuhanga around the world. He will be greatly missed. Ralph's work can be found, here. His obituary in The Guardian can be found, here. His interview with The Unfinished Print can be found, here. Pool Diver (1996) Keiko Hara - is an artist who works, and teaches in Walla Walla, Washington. She is a painter, and printmaker in various relief mediums, such as mokuhanga. Untitled (2019) Keiko Kadota - (d. 2017) was a director of MI Lab and of Nagasawa Art Park, previously. She was a mentor to many mokuhanga practitioners and helped to promote mokuhanga around the world. MI Lab - is a mokuhanga residency located in Kawaguchi-ko, near Mount Fuji. More info can be found, here. Kate MacDonagh - is an Irish mokuhanga printmaker based in Dublin, Ireland. Kanreki was an exhibition curated by Kate MacDonagh at The Model, Sligo. Kate's website. Katsutoshi Yuasa - is a printmaker and artist based in Tokyo, Japan. His work tends to be large scale, and created through photography, bits, and focuses on the overall "image" itself. His interview with The Unfinished Print can be found, here. website, Instagram I-know-not-what (2022) oil-based mokuhanga kirazruri - is a style of printing which uses mica to give a silver, glittering tone to the print. Mica is used as a lovely addition to your print. You can find more information, here. Hiroki Satake - is a mokuhanga printmaker, and instructor based in Japan. He has taught at MI Lab, as well as given demonstrations regarding tool sharpening, around the world. Carol Wilhide Justin - is a mokuhanga printmaker based in London, England. Her work focuses on the natural world and the process of making mokuhanga. Carol's interview with The Unfinished Print can be found, here. Asemic Writing Tochigi, Prefecture - is a Japanese Prefecture sandwiched between Saitama, Ibaraki, Fukushima, and Gunma Prefectures. It is famous for its autumnal leaves, temples, and UNESCO World Heritage Site, Nikkō. More info, here. Nishijin - is an area in Fukuoka City known for its shopping district. inaka (田舎) - is a Japanese word for “country-side.” Kurokawa Onsen (黒川温泉) - is a hot spring town located on the island of Kyushu, near Mount Aso, the largest active volcano in Japan. It is famous of its traditional style inns, hot springs, baths, and food. More info, here. Beppu (別府市) - is a hot spring town located in Kyushu. More info, here. matsuri (祭り）- is the Japanese word for “festival.” Japan is a country famous of it's festivals. Each Prefecture, city, town, municipality has a special festival for their area, connected to the seasons, gods, or harvests. Itoshima (糸島市) - is a city in Fukuoka Prefecture, popular for its beaches, surfing, and nature. Northumberland, Britain - is a county located in the northernmost area of Britain. It shares a border with Scotland. It is known for its nature, industry, castles, and history. https://www.visitnorthumberland.com cyanotype - a type of work which uses iron compounds, and when exposed to UV light creates various blues. More info, here. Indigo dyeing - made famous in the Edo Period (1603-1968), indigo dyeing has been a part of Japanese handicrafts for a long time. Shikoku is famous for it, towns such as Mima, Wakimachi, Tokushima, amongst others continue to produce hand dyed garments of indigo.More info can be found, here, and here. Awagami - is arguably the largest paper making company in Japan at the moment. With a large International name, Awagami sponsors, and promotes its paper all over the world. More information can be found on its website, here. 88 Temple Pilgrimage - associated with the Buddhist priest Kōbō Daishi (Kūkai) [774-835]. It is one of the few circular pilgrimages in the world. You can walk, or drive the pilgrimage. You can also see it in parts, called kuguri-uchi. Essentially you can walk this pilgrimage in order, backwards or frontwards as they are all temples associated with Kūkai. If you do make the pilgrimage by foot, it is a commitment, but extremely rewarding. Pilgrims are called ō-henro. More info, here. Ō-settai - are gifts, such as lodging, food, money, or clothing. They are given by non-pilgrims to pilgrims on they journey of the 88 Temples. More info can be found, here. QEST - is the Queen Elizabeth Scholarship Trust, and is given to British craftspeople who are given money to pursue training and education in their specific field and medium. More info, here. kōzo - is a paper made from the bark of the mulberry bush. It is used in mokuhanga frequently, and comes in various weights. YInMn - is a blue colour discovered by Professor Mas Subramanian in 2009. Helen Frankenthaler (1928-2011) - was an American abstract impressionist painter who enjoyed experimenting, discovering new ways of expression through paint. More info, here. Echizen - is a region in Fukui Prefecture, Japan associated with Japanese paper making. It has a long history of paper making. There are many paper artisans in the area. One famous person is Iwano Ichibei whom Megan mentions in this episode. He is a Living National Treasure in paper making, and the ninth generation of his family still making paper today. More info can be found here in English, and here in Japanese. Paul Furneaux - is a Scottish born mokuhanga printmaker and teacher who uses the medium of mokuhanga in order to create pieces of work that are third dimensional, and abstract. The Mokuhanga Sisters - are a mokuhanga collective consisting of Yoonmi Nam, Mariko Jesse, Lucy May Schofield, Melissa Schulenberg, Kate MacDonagh, Katie Baldwin, Mia-O, Patty Hudak, and Natasha Norman. Instagram Yasuyuki Sato - is the Chair of Center for the Science of Human Endeavor/CfSHE, and Director of the Mokuhanga Conference. Yoonmi Nam (b. 1974) - is a contemporary mokuhanga printmaker, lithographer, sculptor, and teacher, based in Lawrence, Kansas. Her work can be found, here. Her interview with The Unfinished Print can be found, here. More Beer...For Instance (2013) Katie Baldwin - a woodblock printmaker, letterpress, screen printer. website, Instagram Raft (shore) #2 (2013) Mariko Jesse - is an illustrator, and mokuhanga printmaker based in Tōkyō, London, and California. Her work can be found, here. Mariko is also a part of the collective, wood+paper+box, which can be found, here. Between Times - folded screen with mokuhanga wood+paper+box - is a collaborative art group made up of Katie Baldwin, Mariko Jesse, and Yoonmi Nam. It is based on their experiences at Nagasawa Art Park, the precursor of MI Lab. Patty Hudak - is an American artist who splits her time between Vermont and NYC, who works in installation, and mokuhanga. She has travelled the world, and is a part of three artist collectives. Patty's interview with The Unfinished Print can be found, here. Melissa Schulenberg - is a woodblock printmaker and professor of Art and Art History at St. Lawrence University, Canton, NY. Some of her work can be found, here. Newcastle University - is a public research university located in Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, Britain. London College of Printing - now called the London College of Communication, is an art college associated with the University of the Arts London. Toshio Sayama - is an instructor at MI Lab as well as on the MI Lab Committee Board. Borderless scroll - is the Mokuhanga Sisters collaborative scroll. Shown in Nara during the International Mokuhanga Conference, as well as at the Southern Vermont Art Center. nori - is a type of paste made from starch. It is usually used when making mokuhanga. You can make nori from any type of material made of starch. For instance, paste can be made with tapioca, rice, corn, even potato. You can purchase nori pretty much anywhere but making it is more environmentally friendly. Laura Boswell has a great recipe, here. bokashi - is a Japanese term associated with the gradation of water into ink. There are several types of bokashi. For more information regarding these types of bokashi please check out Professor Claire Cuccio's lecture called “A Story in Layers,” for the Library of Congress, and the book Japanese Printmaking by Tōshi Yoshida, and Rei Yuki. Below are the following types of bokashi. This is from the Yoshida book: ichimonji bokashi - straight line gradation ichimonji mura bokashi - straight line gradation with an uneven edg. Ō-bokashi - a gradual shading over a wide area atenashi bokashi - gradation without definition futairo bokashi - two tone gradation Utamaro - A Prelude To Desire Series - is a series created by Kitagawa Utamaro (1750-1806) in 1799. His designs changed the whole perspective of shunga, erotic prints. Below is as print as designed by Utamaro and Lucy's self-produced print, Prelude To Desire IV. shunga (春画)- is a type of mokuhanga which is connected with the ukiyo-e period of the Japanese print. The theme is sexuality, whether male-female, or male-male. Many print designers helped to create these prints, and were very popular. Utagawa Hiroshige (1797-1858) - born in Edo, Hiroshige is famous for his landscape series of that burgeoning city. The most famous series being, One Hundred Famous Views of Edo (1856-1859), and the landcape series, Fifty-Three Stations of the Tōkaidō (1833-1834). His work highlights bokashi, and bright colours. More info about his work can be found, here. Ōmayagashi - from One Hundred Famous Views of Edo Northumberland National Park - is a park in Northumberland , England. It is considered a “dark skies” park where the night sky is preserved by having no artificial lighting in the area. Holbein - is a pigment company with offices located in Japan, The United States, and Canada. They offer high end gouache, watercolour, and pigment pastes. scrolls - called kakemono 掛物 or emakimono 絵巻物 in Japanese. These scrolls contain many different types of themes and subjects. More info can be found, here. The Legend of Gisho Turner Design Gouache - is a company based in Osaka, Japan. The make acrylic and design (water based) gouache. Oak gall - is a type of plant swelling, which can be found in various plants. Oak gall is made by the Gall Wasp. The ink and pigment made form oak gall has been used for centuries. hanshita - is a thin sheet of gampi paper that is pasted, reverse side, on a piece of wood. This is a guide, carved onto the block and is generally used for the key block and subsequent colour blocks. Methods such as acetate with water based pigment, can also be used rather than the thin gampi paper, which can cause misregistration if not pasted correctly. The Japanese Paper Place - is a Toronto based Japanese paper store servicing the Mokuhanga community for many years. Interview with the Nancy Jacobi of the JPP can be found, here. Ozuwashi - is a brick and mortar paper store located in the Nihonbashi district of Tōkyō. More info here. You can purchase all types of paper that Lucy mentions ion her interview, such as pansion, and sekishu. Chine-collé - is a two layered printmaking process where the paper is placed onto an inked metal plated run through a press. More info, here. © Popular Wheat Productions opening and closing musical credit - The Smiths - The Headmaster Ritual from the album Meat Is Murder (1985) logo designed and produced by Douglas Batchelor and André Zadorozny Disclaimer: Please do not reproduce or use anything from this podcast without shooting me an email and getting my express written or verbal consent. I'm friendly :) Слава Україну If you find any issue with something in the show notes please let me know. ***The opinions expressed by guests in The Unfinished Print podcast are not necessarily those of André Zadorozny and of Popular Wheat Productions.***
Facts & Spin for September 24, 2022 top stories: Over 70 migrants drown off the Syrian coast, Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine vote on joining Russia, A jury rules against Project Veritas, A leak suggests that British labour party operatives undermined British democracy by sabotaging Jeremy Corbyn, The trial begins for a Trump ally accused of secretly lobbying for the United Arab Emirates, Micronesia criticizes Japan's plan to release radioactive Fukushima water, The UN requests an urgent report on south Sudan sex abuse allegations, At least 7 are killed by a blast near an Afghan mosque, Pakistan bonds plummet amid flooding and default fears, and the pound sinks as markets react to UK's tax-cutting budget. Sources: https://www.improvethenews.org/ Brief Listener Survey: https://www.improvethenews.org/pod
Kyle and Jheisson close out summer session by learning about the Fukushima disaster, the role of astrology during WWII and consider their place in the universe. Follow @wikiuniversity on Instagram and TikTok for video content.
Dans cet épisode, on retrouve Cathy au micro.Cathy, c'est une maman serial expat qui vit à l'étranger depuis qu'elle a 18ans. Cette semaine, nous avons décidé de nous arrêter sur une expérience qu'elle et sa famille ont vécu en 2011: le tremblement de terre suivi du tsunami qui se sont abattus sur la côte au Nord du Japon. On détaille ensemble la journée du 11 mars, et puis l'après.Je remercie encore Cathy pour son témoignage et je vous laisse avec la suite.Music by Twisterium from PixabaySupport the show
The California legislature has passed SB 846, extending the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant five years past its original expiration date in 2025. It's California's only operational nuclear plant, located near San Luis Obispo. But the debate continues. Pro-nuclear proponents say shutting down Diablo means killing an energy source that's reliable and cheap, although “cheap" depends on who ask. Opponents say Diablo wastes millions of gallons of water for cooling and sits on several earthquake faults, bringing up concerns over what would happen in nuclear-plant disaster like in the case of Chernobyl or Fukushima. KCSB speaks with those on opposite ends of the debate: pro-nuclear proponent Michael Shellenberger, and opponent Linda Steeley with the grassroots organization San Luis Obispo Mothers for Peace. Reporting by KCSB's Robert Stark and Ashley Rusch.
Topic: JR East to raise fares by 10 yen to improve disabled accessibility East Japan Railway Co. (JR East) will become the first railway operator to hike passenger fares and use the funds to improve accessibility for the disabled. 東日本旅客鐵道公司（JR東日本）將成為第一家調漲客運票價，並將這筆資金用來改善供殘障人士使用的無障礙設施的鐵道業者。 The plan is to tack on 10 yen (8 cents) to a ticket for JR East's 16 major lines, including the Yamanote, Chuo and Keihin-Tohoku lines. The increase will go into effect from spring 2023. 該計畫是要將包括山手線、中央線與京濱東北線等16條JR東日本主要路線的票價調漲10日圓（8美分）。新的票價將自2023年春天起生效。 The transport ministry in December 2021 created a new system of adding fares to a ticket to pay for the installation of platform safety doors and elevators at train stations. （日本）國土交通省在2021年12月創設一項新制度，將調漲的票價金額用來支付在車站設置月台安全門與電梯的費用。 Ministry officials said JR East is the first railway company to announce a specific plan. 國土交通省官員說，JR東日本是第一個（因應該制度）宣布明確計畫的鐵道業者。 Next Article Topic: Tasty TV: Japanese professor creates flavorful screen 美味的電視：日本教授發明有滋味的螢幕 Japan's Meiji University professor Homei Miyashita has developed a prototype lickable TV screen that can imitate food flavors, another step towards creating a multi-sensory viewing experience. 日本明治大學教授宮下芳明發明出一款可舔式原型電視螢幕，具有模仿食物味道的功能，朝創造多感官收視體驗邁進另一步。 The device, called Taste the TV (TTTV), uses a carousel of 10 flavor canisters that spray in combination to create the taste of a particular food. The flavor sample then rolls on hygienic film over a flat TV screen for the viewer to try. 這個名為「品嚐電視」的裝置內部設置裝有10種口味的罐子，可噴出調製成特定食物的味道，再輸送到平面電視螢幕的衛生薄膜上，讓觀看者品嚐。 In the COVID-19 era, this kind of technology can enhance the way people connect and interact with the outside world, said Miyashita. 宮下說，在新冠肺炎流行時期，這樣的科技可改善人們與外界連結和互動的方式。 "The goal is to make it possible for people to have the experience of something like eating at a restaurant on the other side of the world, even while staying at home," he said. A commercial version would cost about 100,000 yen to make. 他說：「目標是讓人們即使待在家，也能擁有類似於在世界另一端上餐廳吃飯的體驗。」商業機製作成本約為10萬日圓（約2萬4300台幣）。Source article: https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1510384 ; https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1510139 Next Article Topic: Shinzo Abe - Japan's longest-serving prime minister Shinzo Abe smashed records as Japan's longest-serving prime minister, championing ambitious economic reform and forging key diplomatic relationships while weathering scandals. 安倍晉三打破了日本首相任期的最長紀錄，他支持雄心勃勃的經濟改革，並在經歷醜聞的同時建立了關鍵的外交關係。 Nearly two years after poor health forced him to leave office, the 67-year-old was shot during a campaign event in the western region of Nara on Friday last week. 在他因健康狀況不佳而被迫下台後兩年，六十七歲的他上週五在奈良西部地區一場競選活動中被槍殺。 Abe was a sprightly 52 when he first became prime minister in 2006, the youngest person to occupy the job in the postwar era. 安倍在二○○六年首次擔任首相時年僅五十二歲，是戰後日本最年輕的首相。 He was seen as a symbol of change and youth, but also brought the pedigree of a third-generation politician groomed from birth by an elite, conservative family. Abe's first term was turbulent, plagued by scandals and discord, and capped by an abrupt resignation. 他被視為變革與年輕的象徵，但他也是出身精英保守家庭的政治家族第三代。 安倍的第一個任期動盪不安，飽受醜聞與不和的紛擾，並以突然辭職告終。 - They called it ‘Abenomics' - He ran again, and Japan's revolving prime ministerial door brought him back to office in 2012. It ended a turbulent period in which prime ministers sometimes changed at a rate of one a year. With Japan still staggering from the effects of the 2011 tsunami and subsequent nuclear disaster at Fukushima — and a brief opposition government lashed for flip-flopping and incompetence — Abe offered a seemingly safe pair of hands. 他再次參選，日本的首相旋轉門讓他在二○一二年再度擔任首相。 這終結了日本首相更替頻繁（有時只做了一年便下台）的動盪時期。 當時日本仍因二○一一年海嘯及之後福島核災的影響而步履蹣跚，以及短暫執政、被批評為政策出爾反爾及無能的反對黨政府——在此情況下，安倍看來是穩健的選擇。 And he had a plan: Abenomics. The scheme to revive Japan's economy — the world's third-biggest, but more than two decades into stagnation — involved vast government spending, massive monetary easing and cutting red tape. Abe also sought to boost the country's flagging birth rate by making workplaces more friendly to parents, particularly mothers. 而且他有個計畫：「安倍經濟學」。 重振日本——這世界第三大經濟體，但已陷入停滯二十多年——經濟的計畫，有賴大量政府支出、大規模貨幣寬鬆，以及削減繁文縟節。 He pushed through controversial consumption tax hikes to help finance nurseries and plug gaps in Japan's overstretched social security system. While there was some progress with reform, the economy's bigger structural problems remained. Deflation proved stubborn and the economy was in recession even before the coronavirus struck in 2020. Abe's star waned further during the pandemic, with his approach criticized as confused and slow, driving his approval ratings down to some of the lowest of his tenure. 安倍還試圖營造對父母，尤其是對母親更友善的工作環境，來提高日本不斷下降的出生率。 他推動調高消費稅這具爭議性的政策，以資助托兒所並補強日本負擔過重的社會福利系統。 雖然改革取得了一些進展，但更大的經濟結構性問題依然存在。 事實證明，通貨緊縮很頑強，甚至在二○二○年冠狀病毒來襲之前，經濟就已陷入衰退。 安倍的光環在疫情期間變得更加黯淡，他的做法被批評為混亂及緩慢，讓他的支持率降至任期內最低。 - Political storms - - 政治風暴 - On the international stage, Abe took a hard line on North Korea, but sought a peacemaker role between the US and Iran. He prioritized a close personal relationship with Donald Trump in a bid to protect Japan's key alliance from the then-US president's “America First” mantra, and tried to mend ties with Russia and China. 在國際舞台上，安倍對北韓採取強硬立場，但又想在美國和伊朗之間扮演和平推手的角色。 他優先考慮跟美國總統唐納‧川普建立密切的個人關係，以保護日本的關鍵同盟免受當時川普口號「美國優先」的影響，並試圖修補與俄國及中國的關係。 But the results were mixed: Trump remained eager to force Japan to pay more for US troops stationed in the country, a deal with Russia on disputed northern islands stayed elusive, and a plan to invite Xi Jinping for a state visit fell by the wayside. Abe also pursued a hard line with South Korea over unresolved wartime disputes and continued to float plans to revise Japan's pacifist constitution. 但結果好壞參半：川普仍急於迫使日本為駐紮在日本的美軍支付更多費用，日本與俄國對北部島嶼主權之糾紛仍難以達成協議，邀請習近平進行國事訪問的計畫也被擱置。 日本與南韓間懸而未決的戰時爭端，安倍也採強硬立場，並繼續提出修改日本和平憲法的計畫。 Throughout his tenure, he weathered political storms including cronyism allegations that dented approval ratings but did little to affect his power, in part thanks to the weakness of the opposition. Abe had been due to stay on until late 2021, giving him an opportunity to see out one final event in his historic tenure — the postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympics Games.But in a shock announcement, he stepped down in August 2020, with a recurrence of ulcerative colitis ending his second term, too. 在他整個任期內，他經受住了政治風暴，包括裙帶關係的指控，這些指控讓他的支持率降低，但對他的權力幾乎沒有影響，部分原因是反對派的軟弱。安倍原定留任至二○二一年底，讓他有機會在史上最長任期內看見最後一件大事——延期的二○二○年東京奧運。 然而，他令人震驚地宣布在二○二○年八月下台，潰瘍性結腸炎的復發也結束了他的第二個任期。Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2022/07/12/2003781569 Next Article Topic: Tokyo June heatwave worst since 1875 as power supply creaks under strain Japan baked under scorching temperatures for a fourth successive day on Tuesday, as the capital's heat broke nearly 150-year-old records for June and authorities warned power supply remained tight enough to raise the spectre of cuts. 日本週二連續第4天受炙熱高溫所苦，首善之地打破將近150年來的6月高溫紀錄，政府警告電力供應依然吃緊，增加斷電之虞。 Temperatures in Tokyo hit 35.1 C by 1 p.m local time on Tuesday. For a second day, authorities asked consumers in the Tokyo area to conserve electricity to avoid a looming power cut - but in moderation. 東京氣溫在週二下午1點達到攝氏35.1度。政府連續第二天要求東京地區用戶節約用電—但是適度地—以避免可能的斷電。 "Apparently there are some elderly people who have turned off their air conditioners because we are asking people to save energy, but please - it's this hot - don't hesitate about cooling off," trade and industry minister Koichi Hagiuda told a news conference. 經濟產業大臣萩生田光一在記者會上說，「顯然有一些老人因為我們要求民眾節約能源而關掉空調，但是，拜託，天氣這麼熱，請不要猶豫涼快一下」。 Next Article Topic: Penguins at a Japanese aquarium are being fed cheaper fish - and they aren't happy 日本水族館的企鵝被餵食較便宜的魚—牠們不開心 An aquarium employee waves a mackerel near a penguin － but there's no reaction. When she moves the fish closer to its beak, the penguin turns away haughtily. An otter sniffs the fish, then runs away. 一名水族館員工拿著鯖魚在一隻企鵝身邊揮舞，但是企鵝沒反應。當她把魚靠近企鵝嘴邊，這隻企鵝倨傲地別過頭。一隻水獺聞了聞這隻鯖魚，然後游走。 Before, the Hakone-en Aquarium offered penguins and otters "aji," or Japanese horse mackerel, which the animals readily ate. 箱根園水族館之前給企鵝和水獺吃日本竹筴魚，牠們很樂意吃。 The price of aji has increased by 20% to 30% since last year, the aquarium said. So to cut costs, in May the aquarium switched to a cheaper alternative － "saba," or mackerel. 水族館說，自去年以來，竹夾魚價格已經上漲20%到30%。因此，為了削減成本，館方五月改用較便宜的替代品：鯖魚。 It has not been well received. The aquarium says penguins and otters have their preferred type of fish and the aquarium tries its best to accommodate their needs. 但是此舉並不很受到歡迎。水族館說，企鵝和水獺都有牠們偏好的魚種，館方設法盡量滿足他們的需要。Source article: https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1530996 ; https://features.ltn.com.tw/english/article/paper/1532193 歡迎留言告訴我們你對這一集的想法： https://open.firstory.me/user/cl81kivnk00dn01wffhwxdg2s/comments Powered by Firstory Hosting
In the years following the Fukushima nuclear disaster of 2011, the conversation around decarbonizing the energy sector moved away from nuclear. However, current commodity price volatility has brought nuclear back to the fore and countries that were previously focused on decommissioning nuclear power stations are now, once again, discussing its virtues. Will this spur a nuclear renaissance and how might this time be different from the 1960s and 1970s? What technology breakthroughs could make the future of nuclear different, and will they happen quickly enough to respond to current market signals? To address these questions and more, Dana Perkins speaks with Chris Gadomski, lead nuclear analyst at BloombergNEF. This episode of Switched On draws upon a BNEF research note titled, Nuclear 1H 2022 Market Outlook: Unprecedented Opportunity. To access this research, BNEF subscribers can find it at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal, at bnef.com or via our mobile app.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Austin Vernon is an engineer working on a new method for carbon capture, and he has one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, where he writes about engineering, software, economics, and investing.We discuss how energy superabundance will change the world, how Starship can be turned into a kinetic weapon, why nuclear is overrated, blockchains, batteries, flying cars, finding alpha, & much more!Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.Subscribe to find out about future episodes!Follow Austin on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.Please share if you enjoyed this episode! Helps out a ton!Timestamps(0:00:00) - Intro(0:01:53) - Starship as a Weapon(0:19:24) - Software Productivity(0:41:40) - Car Manufacturing(0:57:39) - Carbon Capture(1:16:53) - Energy Superabundance(1:25:09) - Storage for Cheap Energy(1:31:25) - Travel in Future(1:33:27) - Future Cities(1:39:58) - Flying Cars(1:43:26) - Carbon Shortage(1:48:03) - Nuclear(2:12:44) - Solar(2:14:44) - Alpha & Efficient Markets(2:22:51) - ConclusionTranscriptIntroDwarkesh Patel (00:00:00):Okay! Today, I have the pleasure of interviewing Austin Vernon who writes about engineering, software, economics, and investing on the internet, though not that much else is known about him. So Austin, do you want to give us a bit of info about your background? I know that the only thing the internet knows about you is this one little JPEG that you had to upload with your recent paper. But what about an identity reveal or I guess a little bit of a background reveal? Just to the extent that you're comfortable sharing.Austin Vernon (00:00:29):My degree is in chemical engineering and I've had a lifelong love for engineering as well as things like the Toyota Production System. I've also worked as a chemical engineer in a large processing facility where I've done a lot of petroleum engineering. I taught myself how to write software and now I'm working on more research and the early commercialization of CO2 electrolysis.Dwarkesh Patel (00:00:59):Okay yeah. I'm really interested in talking about all those things. The first question I have is from Alex Berger, who's the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy. When I asked on Twitter what I should ask you, he suggested that I should ask “Why so shady?” Famously you have kind of an anonymous personality, pseudonymous thing going on the internet. What's up with that?Austin Vernon (00:01:25):Yeah. I think he posted a tweet that said “I don't know who this guy is or if he's credible at all, but his stuff sure is interesting”. That really made me laugh. I thought that was hilarious. Fame just doesn't seem necessary, I think I'm fine with my ideas being well known and communicating, but I have less desire to be personally famous.Starship as a WeaponDwarkesh Patel (00:01:52):Gotcha, gotcha. I wanted to start off with a sexy topic, let's talk about using Starship as a kinetic weapon. I thought that was one of the more amusing posts you wrote. Do you want to talk more about how this would be possible?Austin Vernon (00:02:08):Well, I think the main thing with Starship is that you're taking a technology and you're making it about 100 times cheaper for cargo and 1000 times cheaper for people. When things like that happen that drastically, you're just looking at huge changes and it's really hard to anticipate what some of those can be when the change is that drastic. I think there's a lot of moon-based, Mars-based stuff that doesn't really catch the general public's eye. They also have trouble imagining some of the point-to-point travel that could be possible. But when you start talking about it as a weapon, then I think it lets people know they should be paying attention to this technology. And we certainly do not want to be second or third getting it. We should make sure that we're going to be first.Dwarkesh Patel (00:03:05):Yeah. I think you mentioned this in the post, but as recently as the '90s, the cost of sending one kilogram to space was around $20,000. More recently, SpaceX has brought it to $2,000. Lots of interesting questions pop up when you ask, “What will be possible once we get it down to $200 per kilogram to send into orbit?” One of them could be about how we might manufacture these weapons that are not conventional ballistics. Do you want to talk about why this might be an advancement over conventional ballistic weapons?Austin Vernon (00:03:37):Well, regular conventional ballistic weapons are extremely expensive. This is more like a bomb truck. But usually we think of B52 as the bomb truck and this could be even cheaper than the B52, delivering just mass on target. When you think about how expensive it is to fly a B52 from Barksdale in Louisiana all the way across the world.. you can do it from south Texas or Florida with the Starship and get more emissions per day and the fuel ends up being. When you go orbital, it takes a lot to get to orbit. But then once you're in orbit, your fuel consumption's pretty good. So over long distances, it has a lot of advantage. That's why the point-to-point works for longer distances.Austin Vernon (00:04:27):There's really a sweet spot with these weapons where you want it to be pretty accurate, but you also want it to be cheap. You're seeing that problem with Russia right now as they have some fancy parade style weapons that are really expensive, like multi-billion dollar cruise missiles, but they're missing that $5,000 guided artillery shell or that $20,000 JDM that you can just pit massive. Or the multiple launch rocket system, guided rockets. They're really short on all those because I think they had just had a limited amount of chips they could get from the US into Russia to make these advanced weapons.Austin Vernon (00:05:07):But yeah, so the Starship gives you just a platform to deliver. You could put JDMs in a shroud, or you could just have the iron unguided kinetic projectiles, and it just becomes impossible for a ship to launch missiles to intercept yours if your cost is so low, you can just overwhelm them.Dwarkesh Patel (00:05:29):Okay. There are a few terms there that neither I nor the audience might know. So what is JDM? What is shroud? And why are chips a bottleneck here? Why can't it just be any micro-controller?Austin Vernon (00:05:42):So JDM is Joint Direct Attack Munition. So what we did is we took all our Vietnam surplus bonds and we put this little fin-kit on it and it costs like $20,000, which is cheap for a weapon because the actual bond costs, I don't know, $3,000. And then it turns it into a guided weapon that, before you were probably lucky to get within 500 meters of a target, now you can get it in with two meters. So the number of missions you have to do with your planes and all that goes down by orders of magnitude. So it's an absolutely huge advantage in logistics and in just how much firepower you can put on a target. And we didn't even have to make new bombs, we just put these kits on all our old bombs.Austin Vernon (00:06:33):Let's see.. Yeah the chips are a problem. There's this organization called RUSI. I think they're in the UK, but they've been tearing down all these Russian weapons they found in Ukraine and they all have American chips in them. So technically, they're not supposed to be able to get these chips. And yet, Russia can't make a lot of its own chips. And especially not the specialized kinds you might want for guided weapons. So they've been somehow smuggling in chips from Americans to make their advanced weaponsDwarkesh Patel (00:07:03):What is special about these? As far as I'm aware, the trade with China is still going on and we get a lot of our chips manufactured from Taiwan or China. So why can't they do the same?Austin Vernon (00:07:14):It's the whole integration. It's not just the specific chip, but the board. They're more like PLCs where you almost have wired-in programming and they come with this ability to do the guidance and all that stuff. It all kind of has to work together. I think that's the way I understand it. I don't know. Maybe I don't have a really good answer for that one, but they're hard to replicate is what matters.Dwarkesh Patel (00:07:43):Okay that's interesting. Yeah, I guess that has a lot of interesting downstream effects, because for example, India buys a lot of its weapons from Russia. So if Russia doesn't have access to these, then other countries that buy from Russia won't have access to these either.Dwarkesh Patel (00:07:58):You had an interesting speculation in the post where you suggested that you could just keep these kinetic weapons in orbit, in a sort of Damocles state really, almost literally. That sounds like an incredibly scary and risky scenario where you could have orbital decay and you could have these kinetic weapons falling from the sky and destroying cities. Do you think this is what it will look like or could look like in 10 to 20 years?Austin Vernon (00:08:26):Well, yeah, so the advantage of having weapons on orbit is you can hit targets faster. So if you're launching the rocket from Florida, you're looking at maybe 30 minutes to get there and the target can move away in that time. Whereas if you're on orbit, you can have them spaced out to where you're hitting within a few minutes. So that's the advantage there.Austin Vernon (00:08:46):You really have to have a two stage system I think for most, because if you have a really aerodynamic rod that's going to give you really good performance in the low atmosphere, it'll end up going too fast and just burn up before it gets there. Tungsten's maybe the only thing that you could have that could go all the way through which is why I like the original concept of using these big tungsten rods the size of a telephone pole. But tungsten's pretty expensive. And the rod concept kind of limits what you can do.Austin Vernon (00:09:28):So a lot of these weapons will have, that's what I was talking about with the shroud, something that actually slows you down in the upper atmosphere. And then once you're at the velocity where you're not just going to melt, then you open it up and let it go. So if you actually had it fall from the sky, some may make it to the ground, but a lot would burn up. So a lot of the stuff that makes it to the ground is actually pretty light. It's stuff that can float and has a large surface area. Yeah, that's the whole thing with Starship. Or not Starship, but Starlink. All those satellites are meant to completely fall apart on de-orbit.Dwarkesh Patel (00:10:09):I see. One of the implications of that is that these may be less powerful than we might fear, because since kinetic energy is mass times velocity squared and there's an upper bound on the velocity (velocity being the component that grows the kinetic energy faster), then it suggests that you can upper bound the power these things will have. You know what I mean?Austin Vernon (00:10:32):Yeah, so even the tungsten rods. Sometimes people, they're not very good at physics, so they don't do the math. They think it's going to be a nuclear weapon, but it's really not. I think even the tungsten rod is like 10 tons of T&T or something. It's a big bomb, but it's not a super weapon.Austin Vernon (00:10:54):So I think I said in the post, it's about using advanced missiles where they're almost more defensive weapons so I can keep you from pitting your ship somewhere. Yeah I could try to bombard your cities, but I can't take ground with it. I can't even police sea lanes with it really. I'd still have to use regular ships if I had this air cover to go enforce the rules of the sea and stuff like that.Dwarkesh Patel (00:11:23):Yeah. You speculated in the post, I think, that you could load this up with shrapnel and then it could explode next to an incoming missile or an incoming aircraft. Could these get that accurate? Because that was surprising speculation to me.Austin Vernon (00:11:43):I think for ships, it's pretty... I was watching videos of how fast a ship can turn and stuff. If you're going to do an initial target on a ship to try to kill their radars, you'd want to do it above the ceiling of their missiles. So it's like, how much are they going to move between your release where you stop steering and that? The answer's maybe 1000 feet. So that's pretty simple because you just shrapnel the area.Austin Vernon (00:12:12):Targeting aircraft, you would be steering all the way in. I'd say it's doable, but it'd be pretty hard. You'd actually maybe want to even go slower than you would with the ship attack. You'd need a specialized package to attack the aircraft, but if you have enough synthetic aperture radar and stuff like that, you could see these aircraft using satellites and then guide the bomb in the whole way. You could even load heat seeking missiles into a package that unfurls right next to them and launch conventional missiles too, probably. It'd be pretty hard to do some of this stuff, but they're just the things you might be able to do if you put some effort into it.Dwarkesh Patel (00:12:57):Yeah. The reason I find this kind of speculation really interesting is because when you look at the modern weaponry that's used in conflicts, it just seems directly descendant from something you would've seen in World War II or something. If you think about how much warfare changed between 1900 and 1940, it's like, yeah, they're not even the same class of weapons anymore. So it's interesting to think about possibilities like these where the entire category of weapons has changed.Austin Vernon (00:13:33):You're right and that's because our physical technology hasn't changed that much. So it really has just made more sense to put better electronics in the same tanks. We haven't learned enough about tanks to build a new physical tank that's way better, so we just keep upgrading our existing tanks with better electronics. They're much more powerful, they're more accurate. A lot of times, they have longer range weapons and better sensors. So the tank looks the same, but it maybe has several times more killing power. But the Ukraine war right now, they're using a lot of 40, 50 year old weapons so that especially looks like that.Dwarkesh Patel (00:14:20):Yeah. Which kind of worries you if you think about the stockpiles our own military has. I'm not well educated on the topic, but I imagine that we don't have the newest of the new thing. We probably have maintained versions of decades old technology.Austin Vernon (00:14:35):We spend so much, we've got relatively... This kind of gets into debate about how ready our military is. For certain situations, it's more ready than others. I'd say in general, most people talking about it have the incentive to downplay our capabilities because they want more defense spending. There's lots of reasons. So I think we're probably more capable than what you might see from some editorial in The Hill or whatever. Us just sending a few weapons over to Ukraine and seeing how successful they've been at using them, I think, shows a little bit of that.Austin Vernon (00:15:18):There's so much uncertainty when it comes to fighting, especially when you're talking about a naval engagement, where we don't just don't have that many ships in general… you can have some bad luck. So I think you always want to be a little bit wary. You don't want to get overconfident.Dwarkesh Patel (00:15:37):Yeah. And if the offensive tech we sent to Ukraine is potentially better than the defensive tech, it's very possible that even a ballistic missile that China or Russia could launch would sink a battleship and then kill the 2,000 or 1,000 whatever soldiers that are on board. Or I guess, I don't know, you think this opens up avenues for defensive tech as well?Austin Vernon (00:16:03):Yeah––generally the consensus is that defensive technology has improved much more recently than offensive technology. This whole strategy China has is something they call anti-access/area denial, A2/AD. That's basically just how missiles have gotten better because the sensors on missiles have gotten better. So they can keep our ships from getting close to them but they can't really challenge us in Hawaii or something. And it really goes both ways, I think people forget that. So yeah, it's hard for us to get close to China, but Taiwan has a lot of missiles with these new sensors as well. So I think it's probably tougher for China to do it close to Taiwan than most people would say.Dwarkesh Patel (00:16:55):Oh, interesting. Yeah, can you talk more about that? Because every time I read about this, people are saying that if China wanted to, they could knock out Taiwan's defenses in a short amount of time and take it over. Yeah, so can you talk about why that's not possible?Austin Vernon (00:17:10):Well, it might be, but I think it's a guess of the uncertainty [inaudible 00:17:14]. Taiwan has actually one of the largest defense budgets in the world and they've recently been upping it. I think they spend, I don't know, $25 billion a year and they added an extra $5 billion. And they've been buying a lot of anti-ship missiles, a lot of air defense missiles.. Stuff that Ukraine could only dream of. I think Ukraine's military budget was $2 billion and they have a professional army. And then the other thing is Taiwan's an island, whereas Russia could just roll over the land border into Ukraine.Austin Vernon (00:17:44):There's just been very few successful amphibious landings in history. The most recent ones were all the Americans in World War II and Korea. So the challenge there is just... It's kind of on China to execute perfectly and do that. So if they had perfect execution, then possibly it would be feasible. But if their air defenses on their ships aren't quite as good as we think they could possibly be, then they could also end up with half their fleet underwater within 10 hours.Dwarkesh Patel (00:18:20):Interesting. And how has your view of Taiwan's defensive capabilities changed... How has the Ukraine conflict updated your opinion on what might happen?Austin Vernon (00:18:29):I didn't really know how much about it. And then I started looking at Wikipedia and stuff and all this stuff they're doing. Taiwan just has a lot of modern platforms like F16s with our anti-ship missiles. They actually have a lot of their own. They have indigenous fighter bombers, indigenous anti-ship missiles because they're worried we might not always sell them to them.Austin Vernon (00:18:54):They've even recently gotten these long range cruise missiles that could possibly target leadership in Beijing. So I think that makes it uncomfortable for the Chinese leadership. If you attack them, you're going to have to go live in a bunker. But again, I'm not a full-time military analyst or something, so there's a lot of uncertainty around what I'm saying. It's not a given that China's just going to roll over them.Software ProductivityDwarkesh Patel (00:19:22):Okay. That's comforting to hear. Let's talk about an area where I have a little bit of a point of contact. I thought your blog post about software and the inability of it to increase productivity numbers, I thought that was super fascinating. So before I ask you questions about it, do you want to lay out the thesis there?Austin Vernon (00:19:43):Yeah. So if there's one post I kind of felt like I caught lightning in a bottle on, it's that one. Everything I wanted to put in, it just fit together perfectly, which is usually not the case.Austin Vernon (00:19:55):I think the idea is that the world's so complex and we really underestimate that complexity. If you're going to digitize processes and automate them and stuff, you have to capture all that complexity basically at the bit level, and that's extremely difficult. And then you also have diminishing returns where the easily automatable stuff goes first and then it's increasing corner cases to get to the end, so you just have to go through more and more code basically. We don't see runaway productivity growth from software because we're fighting all this increasing complexity.Dwarkesh Patel (00:20:39):Yeah. Have you heard of the waterbed theory of complexity by the way?Austin Vernon (00:20:42):I don't think so.Dwarkesh Patel (00:20:44):Okay. It's something that comes up in compiler design: the idea is that there's a fixed amount of complexity in a system. If you try to reduce it, what you'll end up doing is just you'll end up migrating the complexity elsewhere. I think an example that's used of this is when they try to program languages that are not type safe, something like Python. You can say, “oh, it's a less complex language”, but really, you've added complexity when, I don't know, two different types of numbers are interacting like a float and an int. As your program grows, that complexity exponentially grows along with all the things that could go wrong when you're making two things interact in a way that you were expecting not to. So yeah, the idea is you can just choose where to have your complexity, but you can't get rid of that complexity.Austin Vernon (00:21:38):I think that's kind of an interesting thing when you start pairing it with management theory... when you add up all the factors, the most complex thing you're doing is high volume car manufacturing. And so we got a lot of innovations and organization from car manufacturers like the assembly line. Then you had Sloan at GM basically creating the way the modern corporation is run, then you have the Toyota Production System.Austin Vernon (00:22:11):But arguably now, creating software is actually the most complex thing we do. So there's all these kinds of squishy concepts that underlie things like the Toyota Production System that softwares had to learn and reimagine and adopt and you see that with Agile where, “oh, we can't have long release times. We need to be releasing every day,” which means we're limiting inventory there.Austin Vernon (00:22:42):There's a whole thing especially that's showing up in software that existed in carbon manufacturing where you're talking about reducing communication. So Jeff Bezos kind of now famously said, "I want to reduce communication," which is counterintuitive to a lot of people. This is age-old in car manufacturing where Toyota has these cards that go between workstations and they tell you what to do. So people normally think of them as limiting inventory, but it also tells the worker exactly what they're supposed to be doing at what pace, at what time. The assembly line is like that too. You just know what to do because you're standing there and there's a part here and it needs to go on there, and it comes by at the pace you're supposed to work at.Austin Vernon (00:23:29):It's so extreme that there's this famous paper, by List, Syverson and Levitt. They went to a car factory and studied how defects propagated in cars and stuff. Once a car factory gets up and running, it doesn't matter what workers you put in there, if workers are sick or you get new workers, the defect rate is the same. So all the knowledge is built into the manufacturing line.Austin Vernon (00:23:59):There's these concepts around idiot-proofing and everything that are very similar to what you'll see. You had Uncle Bob on here. So Uncle Bob says only put one input into a function and stuff like that because you'll mix them up otherwise. The Japanese call it poka-yoke. You make it where you can't mess it up. And that's another way to reduce communication, and then software, of course you have APIs.Austin Vernon (00:24:28):So I'm really interested in this overall concept of reducing communication, and reducing how much cooperation and everything we need to run the economy.Dwarkesh Patel (00:24:41):Right. Right. Speaking of the Toyota Production System, one thing they do to reduce that defect rate is if there's a problem, all the workers in that chain are forced to go to the place where the defect problem is and fix it before doing anything else. The idea there is that this will give them context to understand what the problem was and how to make sure it doesn't happen again. It also prevents a build up of inventory in a way that keeps making these defects happen or just keeps accumulating inventory before the place that can fix the defects is able to take care of them.Austin Vernon (00:25:17):Right. Yeah, yeah. Exactly.Dwarkesh Patel (00:25:19):Yeah. But I think one interesting thing about software and complexity is that software is a place where complexity is the highest in our world right now but software gives you the choice to interface with the complexity you want to interface with. I guess that's just part of specialization in general, but you could say for example that a machine learning model is really complex, but ideally, you get to a place where that's the only kind of complexity you have to deal with. You're not having to deal with the complexity of “How is this program compiled? How are the libraries that I'm using? How are they built?” You can fine tune and work on the complexity you need to work on.Dwarkesh Patel (00:26:05):It's similar to app development. Byrne Hobart has this blog post about Stripe as solid state. The basic idea is that Stripe hides all the complexity of the financial system: it charges a higher fee, but you can just treat it as an abstraction of a tithe you have to pay, and it'll just take care of that entire process so you can focus on your comparative advantage.Austin Vernon (00:26:29):It's really actually very similar in car manufacturing and the Toyota Production System if you really get into it. It's very much the same conceptual framework. There's this whole idea in Toyota Production System, everyone works at the same pace, which you kind of talked about. But also, your work content is the same. There's no room for not standardizing a way you're going to do things. So everyone gets together and they're like, “All right, we're going to do this certain part. We're going to put it together this certain way at this little micro station. And it's going to be the same way every time.” That's part of how they're reducing the defect rates. If your assembly process is longer than what your time allotment is to stay in touch with the rest of the process, then you just keep breaking it down into smaller pieces. So through this, each person only has to know a very small part of it.Austin Vernon (00:27:33):The overall engineering team has all sorts of strategies and all sorts of tools to help them break up all these processes into very small parts and make it all hold together. It's still very, very hard, but it's kind of a lot of the same ideas because you're taking away the complexity of making a $30,000 car or 30,000 part car where everyone's just focusing on their one little part and they don't care what someone else is doing.Dwarkesh Patel (00:28:06):Yeah. But the interesting thing is that it seems like you need one person who knows how everything fits together. Because from what I remember, one of the tenets of the Toyota Production System was you need to have a global view. So, in that book, was it the machine or the other one, the Toyota Production System book? But anyways, they were talking about examples where people would try to optimize for local efficiencies. I think they especially pointed to Ford and GM for trying to do this where they would try to make machines run all the time. And locally, you could say that, “oh this machine or process is super efficient. It's always outputting stuff.” But it ignores how that added inventory or that process had a bad consequence for the whole system.Dwarkesh Patel (00:28:50):And so it's interesting if you look at a company like Tesla that's able to do this really well. Tesla is run like a monarchy and this one guy has this total global view of how the entire process is supposed to run and where you have these inefficiencies.. You had some great examples of this in the blog post. I think one of the examples is this guy (the author) goes to this factory and he asks, "Is this an efficient factory?" And the guy's like, "Yeah, this is totally efficient. There's nothing we can do, adopting the Toyota way, to make this more efficient."Dwarkesh Patel (00:29:22):And so then he's like, "Okay, let me look." And he finds that they're treating steel in some way, and the main process does only take a couple of seconds, but some local manager decided that it would be more efficient to ship their parts out, to get the next stage of the process done somewhere else. So this is locally cheaper, but the result is that it takes weeks to get these parts shipped out and get them back. Which means that the actual time that the parts spend getting processed is 0.1% of the time, making the whole process super inefficient. So I don't know, it seems like the implication is you need a very monarchical structure, with one person who has a total view, in order to run such a system. Or am I getting that wrong?Austin Vernon (00:30:12):Not necessarily. I mean, you do have to make sure you're not optimizing locally, but I think it's the same. You have that same constraint in software, but I think a lot of times people are just running over it because processing has been getting so much cheaper. People are expensive, so if you could save development time, it just ends up the trade offs are different when you're talking about the tyranny of physical items and stuff like that, the constraints get a little more severe. But I think you have the same overall. You still have to fight local optimization, but the level you have to is probably different with physical goods.Austin Vernon (00:30:55):I was thinking about the smart grid situation from a software perspective, and there's this problem where, okay, I'm putting my solar farm here and it's impacting somewhere far away, and that's then creating these really high upgrade costs, that cost two or three times more than my solar farm. Well, the obvious thing would be, if you're doing software, is like you're going to break all these up into smaller sections, and then you wouldn't be impacting each other and all that, and you could work and focus on your own little thing.Austin Vernon (00:31:29):But the problem with that is if you're going to disconnect these areas of the grid, the equipment to do that is extremely expensive. It's not like I'm just going to hit a new tab and open a new file and start writing a new function. And not only that, but you still have to actually coordinate how this equipment is going to operate. So if you just let the grid flow as it does, everyone knows what's going to happen because they could just calculate the physics. If you start adding in all these checkpoints where humans are doing stuff, then you have to actually interface with the humans, and the amount of things that can happen really starts going up. So it's actually a really bad idea to try to cart all this stuff off, just because of the reality of the physical laws and the equipment you need and everything like that.Dwarkesh Patel (00:32:22):Okay. Interesting. And then I think you have a similar Coasean argument in your software post about why vertically integrating software is beneficial. Do you want to explain that thesis?Austin Vernon (00:32:34):Yeah. I think it actually gets to what we're talking about here, where it allows you to avoid the local optimization. Because a lot of times you're trying to build a software MVP, and you're tying together a few services… they don't do quite what you need, so if you try to scale that, it would just break. But if you're going to take a really complex process, like car manufacturing or retail distribution, or the home buying process or something, you really have to vertically integrate it to be able to create a decent end-to-end experience and avoid that local optimization.Austin Vernon (00:33:20):And it's just very hard otherwise, because you just can't coordinate effectively if you have 10 different vendors trying to do all the same thing. You end up in just constant vendor meetings, where you're trying to decide what the specs are or something instead of giving someone the authority, or giving a team the authority to just start building stuff. Then if you look at these companies, they have to implement these somewhat decentralized processes when they get too complex, but at least they have control over how they're interfacing with each other. Walmart, as the vendors, control their own stock. They don't tell the vendor, "We need X parts." It's just like, it's on you to make sure your shelf is stocked.Dwarkesh Patel (00:34:07):Yeah. Yeah. So what was really interesting to me about this part of the post was, I don't know, I guess I had heard of this vision of we're software setting, where everybody will have a software as a service company, and they'll all be interfacing with each other in some sort of cycle where they're all just calling each other's APIs. And yeah, basically everybody and their mother would have a SAAS company. The implication here was, from your argument, that given the necessity of integrating all those complexity vertically in a coherent way, then the winners in software should end up being a few big companies, right? They compete with each other, but still...Austin Vernon (00:34:49):I think that's especially true when you're talking about combining bits and apps. Maybe less true for pure software. The physical world is just so much more complex, and so the constraints it creates are pretty extreme, compared to like... you could maybe get away with more of everyone and their mom having an API in a pure software world.Dwarkesh Patel (00:35:14):Right. Yeah. I guess, you might think that even in the physical world, given that people really need to focus on their comparative advantage, they would just try to outsource the software parts to these APIs. But is there any scenario where the learning curve for people who are not in the firm can be fast enough that they can keep up with the complexity? Because there's huge gains for specialization and competition that go away if this is the world we're forced to live in. And then I guess we have a lot of counter examples, or I guess we have a lot of examples of what you're talking about. Like Apple is the biggest market cap in the world, right? And famously they're super vertically integrated. And yeah, obviously their thing is combining hardware and software. But yeah, is there any world in which it can keep that kind of benefit, but have it be within multiple firms?Austin Vernon (00:36:10):This is a post I've got on my list I want to write. The blockchain application, which excites me personally the most, is reimagining enterprise software. Because the things you're talking about, like hard typing and APIs are just basically built into some of these protocols. So I think it just really has a lot of exciting implications for how much you can decentralize software development. But the thing is, you can still do that within the firm. So I think I mentioned this, if the government's going to place all these rules on the edge of the firm, it makes transactions with other firms expensive. So a few internal transactions can be cheaper, because they're avoiding the government reporting and taxes and all that kind of stuff. So I think you'd have to think about how these technologies can reduce transaction costs overall and decentralize that, but also what are the costs between firms?Dwarkesh Patel (00:37:22):Yeah, it's really interesting if the costs are logistic, or if they're based on the knowledge that is housed, as you were talking about, within a factory or something. Because if it is just logistical and stuff, like you had to report any outside transactions, then it does imply that those technology blockchain could help. But if it is just that you need to be in the same office, and if you're not, then you're going to have a hard time keeping up with what the new requirements for the API are, then maybe it's that, yeah, maybe the inevitability is that you'll have these big firms that are able to vertically integrate.Austin Vernon (00:37:59):Yeah, for these big firms to survive, they have to be somewhat decentralized within them. So I think you have... you're going to the same place as just how are we viewing it, what's our perception? So even if it's a giant corporation, it's going to have very independent business units as opposed to something like a 1950s corporation.Dwarkesh Patel (00:38:29):Yeah. Byrne Hobart, by the way, has this really interesting post that you might enjoy reading while you're writing that post. It's type safe communications, and it's about that Bezos thing, about his strict style for how to communicate and how little to communicate. There's many examples in Amazon protocols where you have to... the only way you can put in this report, is in this place you had to give a number. You can't just say, "This is very likely," you had to say like, "We project X percent increase," or whatever. So it has to be a percent. And there's many other cases where they're strict about what type definition you can have in written reports or something. It has kind of the same consequence that type strict languages have, which is that you can keep track of what the value is through the entire chain of the flow of control.Austin Vernon (00:39:22):You've got to keep work content standardized.Dwarkesh Patel (00:39:26):So we've been hinting at the Coasean analysis to this. I think we just talked about it indirectly, but for the people who might not know, Coase has this paper called The Theory of Firms, and he's trying to explain why we have firms at all. Why not just have everybody compete in the open market for employment, for anything? Why do we have jobs? Why not just have... you can just hire a secretary by the day or something.Dwarkesh Patel (00:39:51):And the conclusion he comes to is that by having a firm you're reducing the transaction cost. So people will have the same knowledge about what needs to get done, obviously you're reducing the transaction cost of contracting, finding labor, blah, blah, blah. And so the conclusion it comes to is the more the transaction costs are reduced within people in a firm, as compared to the transaction cost between different firms, the bigger firms will get. So I guess that's why the implication of your argument was that there should be bigger tech firms, right?Austin Vernon (00:40:27):Yes, yes, definitely. Because they can basically decrease the transaction costs faster within, and then even at the limit, if you have large transaction costs outside the firm, between other firms that are artificially imposed, then it will make firms bigger.Dwarkesh Patel (00:40:45):What does the world look like in that scenario? So would it just be these Japanese companies, these huge conglomerates who are just... you rise through the ranks, from the age of 20 until you die? Is that what software will turn into?Austin Vernon (00:40:59):It could be. I mean, I think it will be lots of very large companies, unless there's some kind of change in inner firm transaction costs. And again, that could possibly come from blockchain like technology, but you probably also need better regulation to make that cheaper, and then you would have smaller firms. But again, in the end, it doesn't really matter. You'd be working in your little unit of the big bank of corporate, or whatever. So I don't know what that would look like on a personal level.Car ManufacturingDwarkesh Patel (00:41:40):Yeah. Okay. So speaking of these Japanese companies, let's talk about car manufacturing and everything involved there. Yeah, so we kind of hinted at a few elements of the Toyota way and production earlier, but do you want to give a brief overview of what that is, so we can compare it to potentially other systems?Austin Vernon (00:42:02):I think all these kinds of lean Toyota process systems, they do have a lot of similarities, where mostly you want to even-out your production, so you're producing very consistently, and you want to break it into small steps and you want to limit the amount of inventory you have in your system. When you do this, it makes it easy to see how the process is running and limit defects. And the ultimate is you're really trying to reduce defects, because they're very expensive. It's a little bit hard to summarize. I think that's my best shot at it there, quickly off the top of my head.Dwarkesh Patel (00:42:49):Yeah. The interesting thing about the Toyota system, so at least when the machine was released, is they talk about... that book was released I think the nineties, and they went to the history of Toyota, and one of the interesting things they talked about was there was a brief time where the company ran... I think, was this after World War II? But anyways, the company ran into some troubles. They needed to layoff people to not go bankrupt. They had much more debt on books than they had assets. So yeah, they wanted to layoff people, but obviously the people were not happy about this, so there were violent protests about this. And in fact I think the US written constitution gave strong protections to labor that they hadn't had before, which gave labor an even stronger hand here.Dwarkesh Patel (00:43:42):So anyway, Toyota came to this agreement with the unions that they'd be allowed to do this one time layoff to get the company on the right track, but afterwards they could never lay somebody off. Which would mean that a person who works at Toyota works there from the time they graduate college or high school till they die. Right? I don't know, that's super intense in a culture. I mean, in software, where you have the average tenure in a company's one year, the difference is so much.Dwarkesh Patel (00:44:13):And there's so many potential benefits here, I guess a lot of drawbacks too. But one is, obviously if you're talking in a time scale of 50 years, rather than one year, the incentives are more aligned between the company and the person. Because anything you could do in one year is not going to have a huge impact on your stock options in that amount of time. But if this company's your retirement plan, then you have a much stronger incentive to make sure that things at this company run well, which means you're probably optimizing for the company's long term cash flow yourself. And also, there's obviously benefits to having that knowledge built up in the firm from people who have been there for a long time. But yeah, that was an interesting difference. One of the interesting differences, at least.Austin Vernon (00:45:00):I mean, I think there's diminishing returns to how long your tenure's going to be. Maybe one year's too short, but there's a certain extent to where, if you grow faster than your role at the company, then it's time to switch. It's going to depend on the person, but maybe five years is a good number. And so if you're not getting promoted within the firm, then your human capital's being wasted, because you could go somewhere else and have more responsibility and perform better for them. Another interesting thing about that story, is almost all lean turnarounds, where they're like, we're going to implement something like Toyota production system, they come with no layoff promises. Because if you're going to increase productivity, that's when everyone's like, "Oh gosh, I'm going to get laid off." So instead you have to increase output and take more market share, is what you do.Dwarkesh Patel (00:46:00):It's kind of like burning your bridges, right? So this is the only way.Austin Vernon (00:46:05):The process really requires complete buy-in, because a lot of your ideas for how you're going to standardize work content come from your line workers, because that's what they're doing every day. So if you don't have their buy-in, then it's going to fail. So that's why it's really necessary to have those kinds of clauses.Dwarkesh Patel (00:46:22):Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. I think it was in your post where you said, if somebody makes their process more efficient, and therefore they're getting more work allotted to them, then obviously they're going to stop doing that. Right? Which means that, I don't know, do you ought to give more downtime to your best workers or something or the people who are most creative in your company?Austin Vernon (00:46:48):I was just going to say, if you're a worker at a plant, then a lot of times for that level of employee, actually small rewards work pretty well. A lot of people on drilling rigs used to give the guys that met certain targets $100 Walmart gift cards. So sometimes small, it's a reward, new ideas, stuff like that works.Austin Vernon (00:47:15):But because the whole system has to grow together, if you just improve one part of the process, it may not help you. You have to be improving all the right processes so normally it's much more collaborative. There's some engineer that's looking at it and like, "All right, this is where we're struggling," or "We have our defects here." And then you go get together with that supervisor and the workers in that area, then you all figure out what improvements could be together. Because usually the people already know. This is like, you see a problem at the top, and you're just now realizing it. Then you go talk to the people doing the work, and they're like, "Oh yeah, I tried to tell you about that two weeks ago, man." And then you figure out a better process from there.Dwarkesh Patel (00:47:58):Based on your recommendation, and Steven Malina's recommendation, I recently read The Goal. And after reading the book, I'm much more understanding of the value that consultants bring to companies, potentially. Because before you could think, “What does a 21 year old, who just graduated college, know about manufacturing? What are they going to tell this plant that they didn't already know? How could they possibly be adding value?” And afterwards, it occurred to me that there's so many abstract concepts that are necessary to understand in order to be able to increase your throughput. So now I guess I can see how somebody who's generically smart but doesn't have that much industry knowledge might be able to contribute to a plan and value consultants could be bringing.Austin Vernon (00:48:43):I think this applies to consultants or young engineers. A lot of times you put young engineers just right in the thick of it, working in production or process right on the line, where you're talking to the workers the most. And there's several advantages to that. One, the engineer learns faster, because they're actually seeing the real process, and the other is there's easy opportunities for them to still have a positive impact on the business, because there's $100 bills laying on the ground just from going up and talking to your workers and learning about stuff and figuring out problems they might be having and finding out things like that that could help you lower cost. I think there's a lot of consultants that... I don't know how the industry goes, but I would guess there's... I know Accenture has 600,000 employees. I don't know if that many, but it's just a large number, and a lot are doing more basic tasks and there are some people that are doing the more high level stuff, but it's probably a lot less.Dwarkesh Patel (00:49:51):Yeah. Yeah. There was a quote from one of those books that said, "At Toyota we don't consider you an engineer unless you need to wash your hands before you can have lunch." Yeah. Okay. So in your blog post about car manufacturing, you talk about Tesla. But what was really interesting is that in a footnote, I think you mentioned that you bought Tesla stocks in 2014, which also might be interesting to talk about again when we go to the market and alpha part. But anyways. Okay. And then you talk about Tesla using something called metal manufacturing. So first of all, how did you know in 2014 that Tesla was headed here? And what is metal manufacturing and how does it differ from the Toyota production system?Austin Vernon (00:50:42):Yeah. So yeah, I just was goofing around and made that up. Someone actually emailed me and they were like, "Hey, what is this metal manufacturing? I want to learn more about this." It's like, "Well, sorry, I just kind of made that up, because I thought it sounded funny." But yeah, I think it's really the idea that there's this guy, Dimming, and he found a lot of the same ideas that Toyota ended up implementing, and Toyota respected his ideas a lot. America never really got fully on board with this in manufacturing. Of course it's software people that are coming and implementing this and manufacturing now which is like the real American way of doing things.Austin Vernon (00:51:32):Because when you look at these manufacturing processes, the best place to save money and optimize is before you ever build the process or the plant. It's very early on. So I think if there's a criticism of Toyota, it's that they're optimizing too late and they're not creative enough in their production technology and stuff. They're very conservative, and that's why they have hydrogen cars and not battery cars, even though they came out with the Prius, which was the first large sales hybrid.Austin Vernon (00:52:12):So yeah, I think what Tesla's doing with really just making Dimming's ideas our own and really just Americanizing it with like, "Oh, well, we want to cast this, because that would be easier." Well, we can't, because we don't have an alloy. "We'll invent the alloy." I love it. It's great. Mostly, I love Tesla because they do such... I agree with their engineering principles. So I didn't know that the company would come to be so valuable. It's just, I was just always reading their stock reports and stuff so I was like, "Well, at least I need to buy some stock so that I have a justification for spending all this time reading their 10 Ks."Dwarkesh Patel (00:52:53):I want to get a little bit more in detail about the exact difference here. So lean production, I guess, is they're able to produce their cars without defects and with matching demand or whatever. But what is it about their system that prevents them from making the kinds of innovations that Tesla is able to make?Austin Vernon (00:53:16):It's just too incremental. It's so hard to get these processes working. So the faster you change things, it becomes very, very difficult to change the whole system. So one of the advantages Tesla has is, well, if you're making electric cars, you have just a lot less parts. So that makes it easier. And once you start doing the really hard work of basically digitizing stuff, like they don't have speed limit dials, you start just removing parts from the thing and you can actually then start increasing your rate of change even faster.Austin Vernon (00:53:55):It makes it harder to get behind if you have these old dinosaur processes. But I think there's a YouTube channel called The Limiting Factor, and he actually went into the detail of numbers on what it costs for Tesla to do their giga-casting, which saves tons of parts and deletes zillions of thousands of robots from their process. If you already have an existing stamping line and all that, where you're just changing the dyes based on your model, then it doesn't make sense to switch to the casting. But if you're building new factories, like Tesla is, well, then it makes sense to do the casting and you can build new factories very cheaply and comparatively and much easier. So there's a little bit of... they just have lots of technical data, I guess you could say, in a software sense.Dwarkesh Patel (00:54:47):Yeah. That's super interesting. The analogy is actually quite... it's like, Microsoft has probably tens of thousands of software engineers who are just basically servicing its technical debt and making sure that the old systems run properly, whereas a new company like Tesla doesn't have to deal with that. The thing that's super interesting about Tesla is like, Tesla's market cap is way over a trillion, right? And then Toyota's is 300 billion. And Tesla is such a new company. The fact that you have this Toyota, which is legendary for its production system, and this company that's less than two decades old is worth many times more, it's kind of funny.Austin Vernon (00:55:32):Yeah. I would say that, in that measure, I don't like market cap. You need to use enterprise value. These old car companies have so much debt, that if you look at enterprise value, it's not so jarring. Literally, I don't know, I can't remember what GM's worth, like 40 billion or something, and then they have $120 billion in debt. So their enterprise value is five times more than their market cap.Dwarkesh Patel (00:56:02):What is enterprise value?Austin Vernon (00:56:03):Enterprise value is basically what is the value of the actual company before you have any claims on it. It's the market cap plus your debt. But basically, if you're the equity holder and the company gets sold, you have to pay the debt first. So you only get the value of what's left over after the debt. So that's why market cap is... when Tesla has very little debt and a lot of market cap, and then these other guys have a lot of debt with less market cap, it skews the comparison.Dwarkesh Patel (00:56:34):Yeah, and one of the interesting things, it's similar to your post on software, is that it seems like one of the interesting themes across your work is automating processes often leads to decreased eventual throughput, because you're probably adding capacity in a place that you're deciding excess capacity, and you're also making the money part of your operation less efficient by have it interface with this automated part. It sounds like there's a similar story there with car manufacturing, right?Austin Vernon (00:57:08):Yeah. I think if we tie it back into what we were talking about earlier, automation promotes local optimization and premature optimization. So a lot of times it's better to figure out, instead of automating a process to make a really hard to make part, you should just figure out how to make that part easy to make. Then after you do that, then it may not even make sense to automate it anymore. Or get rid of it all together, then you just delete all those robots.Austin's Carbon Capture ProjectDwarkesh Patel (00:57:37):Yeah. Yeah, that's interesting. Okay. So let's talk about the project that you're working on right now, the CO2 electrolysis. Do you want to explain what this is, and what your current approach is? What is going on here?Austin Vernon (00:57:55):Yeah, so I think just overall, electrofuels right now are super underrated, because you're about to get hopefully some very cheap electricity from solar, or it could be, maybe, some land. If we get really lucky, possibly some nuclear, geothermal. It'll just make sense to create liquid fuels, or natural gas, or something just from electricity and air, essentially.Austin Vernon (00:58:25):There's a whole spectrum of ways to do this, so O2 electrolysis is one of those. Basically, you take water, electricity, and CO2, and a catalyst. And then, you make more complex molecules, like carbon monoxide, or formic acid, or ethylene, or ethanol, or methane or methine. Those are all options. But it's important to point out that, right now, I think if you added up all the CO2 electrolyzers in the world, you'd be measuring their output and kilograms per day. We make millions of tons per day off of the products I just mentioned. So there's a massive scale up if it's going to have a wider impact.Austin Vernon (00:59:15):So there's some debate. I think the debate for the whole electrofuels sector is: How much are you going to do in the electrolyzer? One company whose approach I really like is Terraform Industries. They want to make methane, which is the main natural gas. But they're just making hydrogen in their electrolyzer, and then they capture the CO2 and then put it into a methanation reaction. So everything they're doing is already world scale, basically.Austin Vernon (00:59:47):We've had hydrogen electrolyzers power fertilizer plants, providing them with the Hydrogen that they need. Methanation happens in all ammonia plants and several other examples. It's well known, very old. Methanation is hydrogen CO2 combined to make water and methane. So their approach is more conservative, but if you do more in the electrolyzer, like I'm going to make the methane actually in the electrolyzer instead of adding this other process, you could potentially have a much simpler process that has less CapEx and scales downward better. Traditional chemical engineering heavily favors scaling. With the more Terraform processes, they're playing as absolutely ginormous factories. These can take a long time to build.Austin Vernon (01:00:42):So one of the things they're doing is: they're having to fight the complexity that creeps into chemical engineering every step of the way. Because if they don't, they'll end up with a plant that takes 10 years to build, and that's not their goal. It takes 10 years to build a new refinery, because they're so complex. So yeah, that's where I am. I'm more on the speculative edge, and it's not clear yet which products will be favorable for which approaches.Dwarkesh Patel (01:01:15):Okay, yeah. And you're building this out of your garage, correct?Austin Vernon (01:01:19):Yeah. So that's where electrolyzers... Everything with electric chemistry is a flat plate instead of a vessel, so it scales down. So I can have a pretty good idea of what my 100 square centimeter electrolyzer is going to do, if I make it quite a bit bigger. I have to worry about how my flow might interact in the larger one and make sure the mixing's good, but it's pretty straightforward because you're just making your flat plate a larger area. Whereas the scale, it is different from scaling a traditional chemical process.Dwarkesh Patel (01:01:56):I'm curious how cheap energy has to be before this is efficient. If you're turning it into methane or something like that, presumably for fuel, is the entire process energy positive? Or how cheap would energy, electricity you need to get before that's the case?Austin Vernon (01:02:18):The different products and different methods have different crossovers. So Terraform Industries, they're shooting for $10 a megawatt hour for electricity. But again, their process is simpler, a little less efficient than a lot of the other products. They also have better premiums, just worth more per ton than methane. So your crossover happens somewhere in between $10 and $20 a megawatt hour, which is... I mean, that's pretty... Right now, solar, it's maybe like $25. Maybe it's a little higher because payment prices have gone up in the last year, but I think the expectation is they'll come back down. And so, getting down to $15 where you start having crossovers for some of these products like ethanol or ethylene or methanol, it's not science fiction.Dwarkesh Patel (01:03:08):I think in Texas where I live, that's where it's at right? The cost of energy is 20 or something dollars per megawatt hour.Austin Vernon (01:03:16):Well, not this summer! But yeah, a lot of times in Texas, the wholesale prices are around $25 to $30.Dwarkesh Patel (01:03:26):Gotcha. Okay. Yeah. So a lot of the actual details you said about how this works went over my head. So what is a flat plate? I guess before you answer that question, can you just generally describe the approach? What is it? What are you doing to convert CO2 into these other compounds?Austin Vernon (01:03:45):Well, yeah, it literally just looks like an electrolyzer. You have two sides and anode and a cathode and they're just smushed together like this because of the electrical resistance. If you put them far apart, it makes it... uses up a lot of energy. So you smush them together as close as you can. And then, you're basically just trading electrons back and forth. On one side, you're turning CO2 into a more complex molecule, and on the other side, you're taking apart water. And so, when you take apart the water, it balances out the equation, balances out your electrons and everything like that. I probably need to work on that elevator pitch there, huh?Dwarkesh Patel (01:04:31):I guess what the basic idea is, you need to put power in to convert CO2 into these other compounds.Austin Vernon (01:04:38):The inputs are electricity, water, and CO2, and the output is usually oxygen and whatever chemical you're trying to create is, along with some side reactions.Dwarkesh Patel (01:04:49):And then, these chemicals you mentioned, I think ethanol, methane, formic acid, are these all just fuels or what are the other uses for them?Austin Vernon (01:04:58):A lot of people are taking a hybrid approach with carbon monoxide. So this would be like Twelve Co… They've raised a lot of money to do this and 100 employees or something. You can take that carbon monoxide and make hydrogen, and then you have to send gas to make liquid fuels. So they want to make all sorts of chemicals, but one of the main volume ones would be like jet fuel.Austin Vernon (01:05:22):Let's see Formic acid is, it's the little fry of all these. It is an additive in a lot of things like preserving hay for animals and stuff like that. Then, ethanol there's people that want to... There's this company that makes ethylene, which goes into plastics that makes polyethylene, which is the most produced plastic. Or you can burn it in your car, although I think ethanol is a terrible vehicle fuel. But then you can also just make ethylene straight in the electrolyzer. So there's many paths. So which path wins is an interesting race to see.Dwarkesh Patel (01:06:13):The ability to produce jet fuel is really interesting, because in your energy superabundance paper, you talk about... You would think that even if we can electrify everything in solar and when it becomes super cheap, that's not going to have an impact on the prices to go to space for example. But I don't know. If a process like this is possible, then it's some way to in financial terms, add liquidity. And then turn, basically, this cheap solar and wind into jet fuel through this indirect process. So the price to send stuff to space or cheap plane flights or whatever––all of that goes down as well.Austin Vernon (01:06:52):It basically sets a price ceiling on the price of oil. Whatever you can produce this for is the ceiling now, which is maybe the way I think about it.Dwarkesh Patel (01:07:06):Yeah. So do you want to talk a little bit about how your background led into this project? This is your full-time thing, right? I don't know if I read about that, but where did you get this idea and how long have you been pursuing it? And what's the progress and so on.Austin Vernon (01:07:20):I've always loved chemical engineering, and I love working at the big processing plant because it's like being a kid in a candy store. If I had extra time, I'd just walk around and look at the plant, like it's so cool. But the plant where I worked at, their up time was 99.7%. So if you wanted to change anything or do anything new, it terrified everyone. That's how they earned their bonuses: run the plant a 100% uptime all the time. So that just wasn't a good fit for me. And also, so I always wanted my own chemical plant, but it's billions of dollars to build plants so that was a pretty big step. So I think this new technology of... there's a window where you might be able to build smaller plants until it optimizes to be hard to enter again.Dwarkesh Patel (01:08:21):And then, why will it become hard to enter again? What will happen?Austin Vernon (01:08:27):If someone figures out how to build a really cheap electrolyzer, and they just keep it as intellectual property, then it would be hard to rediscover that and compete with them.Dwarkesh Patel (01:08:38):And so, how long have you been working on this?Austin Vernon (01:08:42):Oh, not quite a year. But yeah, I actually got this idea to work on it from writing my blog. So when I wrote the heating fuel post, I didn't really know much about... There's another company in the space, Prometheus Fuels and I'm like, "Oh, this is an interesting idea." And then, I got talking to a guy named Brian Heligman, and he's like, "You should do this, but not what Prometheus is doing." And so, then I started looking at it and I liked it, so I've been working on it since.Dwarkesh Patel (01:09:08):Yeah. It's interesting because if energy does become as cheap as you suspect it might. If this process works, then yeah, this is a trillion dollar company probably, right? If you're going to get the patents and everything.Austin Vernon (01:09:22):I mean, maybe. With chemical plants, there's a certain limitation where your physical limitation is. There's only so many places that are good places for chemical plants. You start getting hit by transportation and all that. So, you can't just produce all the chemical for the entire world in Texas and transport it all around. It wouldn't work. So you're talking about a full, globe-spanning thing. At that point, if y