RenMac Off-Script

RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration's multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”

RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin's new high, Trump's tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.  

RenMac double-clicks on bond market's message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf's Thrust and implications, Gold's seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics

RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell's position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a Knickerbocker

RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we're not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week's mail bag, and Jeff's long-shot Derby play.

RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell's firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week's employment data.

RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed's independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-bag.

RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China's alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.

RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today's payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can go right”.

RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office, and AI's mailbag gone wrong.

RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump's conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer's unwinnable position and how moving averages can help generate alpha.

RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer's decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we're not playing this as a bear-market and this week's mailbag regarding market tops.

RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.

Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022.  Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.

RenMac team discusses the potential for government shutdown and the calculus from Ds, the softening data and the risks created by the Fed, the deterioration in Industrials, the soft seasonality with cyclicals, China and this week's RenMac mailbag.

RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week's inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal S&P trends, D's leverage on DOGE, and this week's mail-bag: gold.

RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market's message and economic data,  Trump's “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff's provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac's Mail-Bag

RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon's paradox, DeepSeek's potential genome-sequencing moment for AI, handicapping this week's confirmations, Fed's outlook on inflation, the ongoing challenges in semiconductors, and RenMac's mail-bag.

RenMac discusses the busy week in Washinton, a reminder that the cameras are always on, the importance of oil to growth and inflation, executive order perspective, new highs in SPX and STOXX 600, market internals and the importance of 10yr yields.

RenMac discusses the renewed improvement in consumer price inflation, the term premium as a driver of bond yields, the outperformance of financials and why value should continue to work in Q1, and a quick recap of Trump's cabinet picks that are testifying on the Hill.

RenMac discusses why the latest jobs number validates the Fed's recent pivot and why this risks a passive policy tightening, the impact of higher yields on stocks, and President-Elect Trump's views on territorial control over Greenland.

Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson's speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.

RenMac discusses Speaker Johnson's future, the contrast in conference board confidence now versus 2016, lingering continuing clams data, the bounce in equities, the opportunities in Hong Kong and China and next week's data.

RenMac discusses Musk's government shutdown, the politics behind Powell's statement, Beta's vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the potential for a currency crisis.

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power vacuum in Syria, what's behind Trump's inauguration invite of Xi's and Chinese equities.

RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump's initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.

RenMac discusses:Latest developments with Trump appointmentsThe horserace for Treasury secretaryOngoing weakness in labor demandLow bulls in Treasuries are bullishImpact of political appointments on specific sectors

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market's are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unified governmentInflation expectationsCyclical trade and market's messageLabor market conditionsPowell's futureImportance of personnel to discern direction forward

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed's path into year's end

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed's September decision, and market seasonality.

RenMac discusses this week's data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates' performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.

RenMac discusses:The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed's trajectory.The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names.The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and corporate creditBitcoin Commercial Hedger positioning.

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China's historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.

Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala's border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.

RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.

RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.

RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.

With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market's message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year.  The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed's first rate-cut in a cycle.  Happy Labor Day weekend.

The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll employment and what it means for the Fed ahead of Jackson Hole, the recent breakout in gold, balance sheet versus income recession, and how tight policy is based on the gap between two-year yields and the Federal Funds Rate.

RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala's potential economic policies, the DNC, and the influence of the presidential election on downballot races, and what next week's data (as well as Jackson Hole) could mean for markets going forward. 

RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamala's VP pick (why wasn't it Shapiro?) and the changing presidential odds, the Nikkei and the liquidity picture, as well as important data on deck for next week. 

RenMac discusses Harris's candidacy and her potential picks for Vice President, GDP, inflation data, and what they mean for the Fed's upcoming rate cuts, dark crosses in yields (why is the two-year yield down?), oversold conditions throughout the market, and important political and economic information to come next week. 

RenMac discusses the possibility and potential implications of Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race, his likely replacement (will Democrats bypass Harris?), when and how many times the Fed will cut rates, small cap versus large cap, what recent and upcoming data can show about markets, and the future of the semiconductor trade. 

RenMac discusses Biden's struggles and how the Democrats will move forward, Trump's potential picks for Vice President (is Nikki Haley his best option?), weaker inflation and the potential for a September rate cut, expectations for the retail and auto sectors, and the disconnect between the three Russell indices. 

Guy Berger is someone I had the good fortune of overlapping with at Bank of America. Over the years, Guy has become my go-to resource for all questions on the labor market. After many years as the Principal Economist at LinkedIn, he is now the Director of Research at the Burning Glass Institute, a research outfit focusing on labor market trends.Here, we go through many of the hot topics on the labor market as it pertains to business/market economics: the gap between the Household and Establishment Survey, how important are revisions to the data, what's the impact of immigration on the employment data, and much more.We hope you enjoy our conversation.

Bullish Sentiment Thru the AgesJeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it applies today. Enjoy the Holiday Weekend.

RenMac discusses payrolls and what this means for the Fed in lieu of next week's core inflation number, what the betting markets are telling us about Kamala Harris' role on the presidential ticket, how performance in the first half of the year affects the second half, and cyclicality in the current market.