Podcasts about gfc

To kick off year 7 of the Investors First Podcast, we interviewed Rick Rieder of BlackRock, currently Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, Head of the Fundamental Fixed Income business, and Head of the Global Allocation Investment Team. After earning a BBA in Finance from Emory University and later an MBA from The Wharton School. He started his career as an Analyst at SunTrust, briefly joining E.F. Hutton's training program, and then spending nearly two decades at Lehman Brothers trading before joining BlackRock. In this episode, we start where his interest in finance began with analyzing sports outcomes and probabilities—sometimes betting lunch money to test his thinking. We cover everything in this episode, from Rick's start as a credit analyst at SunTrust, to a lengthy stay at Lehman Brothers, and then joining BlackRock post GFC. We discussed the team/resources he manages, his investment approach with a heavy emphasis on risk management, and the ability of his strategy to go anywhere to find yield. We discussed gambling vs. investing, the impact of new technologies, AI, and opportunity abroad in fixed income markets, along with much more. Today's hosts are Steve Curley, CFA (Co-Managing Principal, 55 North Private Wealth) & co-host Chris Cannon, CFA (CIO/Principal, FirsTrust). Please enjoy the episode. You can follow us on Twitter & LinkedIn or at investorsfirstpodcast.com Learn more: https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/publications/outlook

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur is joined by Dan Toscano, the firm's Chairman of Markets in Private Equity, unpack how credit markets are changing—and what the AI buildup means for the road ahead.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today is a special edition of our podcast. We are joined by Dan Toscano, Chairman of Markets in Private Equity at Morgan Stanley, and a seasoned practitioner of credit markets over many, many credit cycles. We will get his thoughts on the ongoing evolution and revolution in credit marketsIt's Wednesday, January 7th at 10am in New York. Dan, welcome.Dan Toscano: Glad to be here.Vishy Tirupattur: So, to get our – the listeners familiar with your journey, can you talk a little bit about your experience in the credit markets, and how you got to where we are today?Dan Toscano: Yeah, sure. So, I've been doing this a long time. You used the nice word seasoned. My kids would refer to it as old. But I started in this journey in 1988. And to make a long story short, my first job on Wall Street was buying junk bonds in the infancy of the junk bond market, when most of what we were financing were LBOs. So, if you're familiar with Barbarians at the Gate, one of the first bonds we bought were RJR Nabisco reset notes. And I've been doing this ever since, so over almost four decades now.Vishy Tirupattur: So, the junk bond market evolved into high yield market, syndicated loan market, CLO market, financial crisis. So, talk to us about your experiences during this transition.Dan Toscano: Yeah. I mean, one of the things these markets do is they finance evolution in industries. So, when I think back to the early days of financing leveraged buyouts, they were called bootstrap deals. The first deal I did as an intermediary on Wall Street as opposed to as an investor, was a buyout with Bain Capital in 1993. At the time, Bain Capital had a $600 million AUM private equity platform. Think about that in the scale of what Bain Capital does in private equity today. You know, back then it was corporate carve outs, and trying to make the global economy more efficient. And you remember the rise of the conglomerate. And so, one of the early things we financed a lot of was the de-conglomeration of big corporates. So, they would spin off assets that were not central to the business or the strengths that they had as an organization.So, that was the early days of private equity. There was obviously the telecom build out in the late 90's and the resulting bust. And then into the GFC. And we sit here today with the distinctions of private capital, private credit, public credit, syndicated credit, and all the amazing things that are being financed in, you know, what I think of as the next industrial revolution.Vishy Tirupattur: In terms of things that have changed a lot – a lot also changed following the financial crisis. So, if you dig deep into that one thing that happened was the introduction of leveraged lending guidelines. Can you talk about what leveraged lending guidelines did to the credit markets?Dan Toscano: Yeah, I mean, it was a big change for underwriters because it dictated what you could and couldn't participate in as an underwriter or a lender, and so it really cut off one end of the market that was determined by – and I think the thing most famously attributed to the leveraged lending guidelines was this maximum leverage notion of six times leverage is the cap. Nothing beyond that. And so that really limited the ability for Wall Street firms to underwrite and distribute capital to support those deals.And inadvertently, or maybe by plan, really gave rise to the growth in the private credit market. So, when you think about everything that's going on in the world today, including, which I'm sure we'll talk about, the relaxation of the leveraged lending guidelines, it was really fuel for private credit.Vishy Tirupattur: So private credit, this relaxation that you mentioned, you know, a few weeks ago, the FDIC and the OCC withdrew the leveraged lending guidelines in total. What do you expect that will do to the private credit markets? Will that make private credit market share decrease and bank market share increase?Dan Toscano: I think many people think of these as being mutually exclusive. We've never thought of it that way. It exists more on a continuum. And so, what I think the relaxation of those guidelines or the elimination of those guidelines really frees the banks to participate in the entire continuum, either as lenders or as underwriters.And so, in addition to the opportunity that gives the banks to really find the best solutions for their clients, I think this will also continue the blurring of distinctions between public market credit and private market credit. Because now the banks can participate in all of it. And when you think about what defines in people's minds – public credit versus private credit, in many cases it's driven by what terms look like. Customary terms for a syndicated bond or loan versus a private credit loan.Also, who's participating in it. You know, these things have been blurring, right? There's a cost differential or a perceived cost differential that has been blurring for some time now. That will continue to happen, in my opinion anyway.Vishy Tirupattur: I totally agree with you, Dan, on that. I think not only the distinction between public credit and private credit, but also within the various credit channels – secured, unsecured, securitized, structured – all these distinctions are also blurring. So, in that context, let's talk a little bit more about what private credit's focus has been and where private credit focus will be going forward. So, what we'll call private credit 1.0. Focused predominantly on lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. And we now see that potentially changing. What is driving private credit 2.0 in your mind?Dan Toscano: Well, the elephant in the room is digital infrastructure. Absolutely. When you think about the scale of what is happening, the type of capital that's required for the build out, the structure you need around it, the ability to use elements of structure. You mentioned several of them earlier. To come up with an appropriate risk structure for lending is really where the market is heading. When you think about the trillions of dollars that we anticipate is needed for the technology industry to complete this transformation – not just around digital infrastructure, but around everything associated with it.And the big one I think of most often is power, right? So, you need capital to build out sources of power, and you need capital to build out the data centers to be able to handle the compute demand that is expected to be there. This is a scale unlike anything we have ever seen. It is the backbone of what will be the next industrial revolution.We've never seen anything like this in terms of the scale of the capital needed for the transformation that is already underway.Vishy Tirupattur: We are very much on board with this idea as well, Dan, in terms of the scale of the investment, the capital investment that is needed. So, when you look ahead for 2026, what worries you about the ind ustrial revolution financing that is underway?Dan Toscano: Given all that's going on in the world, this massive capital investment that's going on globally around digital infrastructure, we've never seen this before. And so, when I look at the capital raising that has been done in 2025 versus what will be done in 2026, I think one of the differences that we have to be mindful of is – nothing's gone wrong while we were raising capital in 2025 because we were very much in the infancy of these buildouts. Once you get further into these buildouts and the capital raises in 2025 that are funding the development of data centers start to season, problems will emerge. The essence of credit risk is there will be problems and it's really trying to predict and foresee where the problems will be and make sure you can manage your way through them.That is the essence of successful credit investing. And so there will definitely be issues when you think about the scale of the build out that is happening. Even if you look just in the U.S., where you need access to all sorts of commodities to build out. And you know, people focus on chips, but you also need steel and roofing, and importantly labor.And as we talk to people about the build outs, one of the concerns is supply of labor supply and cost of labor. So, when you run into situations where maybe a project is delayed a bit, or the costs are a bit more than what was expected, there will be a reaction. And we haven't had that yet. We will start to see that in 2026 and how investors and the markets react to that, I think will be very important. And I'm a little bit worried that there could be some overreaction because people have trained themselves in 2025 to think of like, ‘I'm operating in a perfect environment,' because we haven't really done anything yet. And now that we've done something, something can and will go wrong. So, you know, we'll see how that plays out.I am very fixated in 2026 on the laws of supply and demand. When I think about what's going on right now, we usually have visibility on demand. And we usually have some level of visibility on supply. Right now, we have neither – and I say that in a positive way. We don't know how big the demand is in the capital world to fund these projects. We don't know how big that can be. And almost with every passing day, the supply – and what we're hearing from our clients about what they need to execute their plans – continues to grow in a way that we don't know where it ends. And the scale, we're talking trillions of dollars, right? Not billions, not millions, but trillions.And so, I look at that – not so much as something I worry about, but something I'm really curious about. Will we run out of money to fund all of the ambitions of the Industrial Revolution? I don't think so. I think money will find great projects, but when you think about the scale of what we're looking at, we've never seen anything like it before. And it will be fascinating to watch as the year goes on.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks Dan. That's very useful. And thanks for taking the time to speak to us and share your wisdom and insights. Dan Toscano: Well, it's great to be here.Vishy Tirupattur: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today

GFC Director Johnny Sabo talks wildfires happening in Georgia and how GFC protects a valuable industry in our state

Keith shares a mindset-shifting quote from John D. Rockefeller that challenges the idea of trading time for money.  He revisits some of the year's most powerful real estate investing lessons, and breaks down the big forces shaping today's housing market—affordability, supply & demand, demographics, and interest rates.  All of this sets the stage for his data-driven national home price outlook for next year—without the usual crash-and-doom hype. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/586 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com or text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold  0:00   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, learn from a quote attributed to the world's first billionaire, it will change how you see wealth building. I'll explain why national home prices have never crashed. Then it's gre, 2026, home price appreciation forecast. You'll learn the future the exact percent that home prices will appreciate or depreciate next year. Today on get rich education   Speaker 1  0:29   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:14   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:30   Welcome to GRE from Lake Huron, Michigan to Lake Tahoe, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. You know something I love, quotes that shift your entire mindset, paradigm, and once your mind is shifted, actions follow. Actions develop into patterns. Those patterns become habits, and habits become the new, transformed you few quotes hit harder than the one from resource tycoon John D Rockefeller. He lived from 1839 to 1937 in fact, Rockefeller is widely regarded as the world's first billionaire. His quote, you might have heard it before. It is this, he who works all day has no time to make money. That sounds paradoxical, even provocative. It's sort of like it's inviting you to come in and want to learn more about it. And this is because most people's concept of income generating is to work 40 hours a week for a salary or an hourly wage. But what does that quote really mean? He who works all day has no time to make money, and be sure to capture the all day part of that quote that ties right back into the show that I did with you two weeks ago about the K shaped economy breakdown, where you learned about how capital compounds labor doesn't most people sell their time for dollars, but trading time for money makes you too busy to actually build Wealth. Working and building wealth. Those things are two separate distinct activities in how you're investing your time and energy. Now, most people start out with a wage or a salary job. I surely worked by pushing brooms and cubicle dwelling before investing in my first rental property. But if you're working all day in a job, physically or mentally well, then you're consumed by tasks that only pay you. Once you're occupied, you can often get exhausted and you're only concerned with short term output. You're focused on the next deadline, not the next decade, when all your hours are spent on labor, you have no bandwidth to do what you need to do, which is, create vision, acquire assets, build a portfolio, develop systems, learn tax strategy, evaluate investment deals, network with like minded investors, or refine your strategy with a GRE investment coach. Be cognizant that labor only pays today. Wealth building pays forever. Even if your work a day job, salary doubled, you would have to ask, how would that even build wealth? You could retire earlier, but you would have to keep working the hours, and let's remember that wealth equals freedom. You can't architect a wealth plan from the assembly line. Now, that's something that Rockefeller would have agreed with. Wealth requires less. Leverage and labor has none. So working all day means no leverage. You are the engine instead making money, that means using leverage, and instead of you being the engine, well, the engine is something else, like assets, systems, technology, other people's time, other people's money, and borrowing to inflation profit. Rockefeller believed and proved that leverage beats labor 100 to one. He's not discouraging work. In fact, it's just the wrong type of work, because he was one of the hardest working people alive. And really the bottom line here, with this quote, he who works all day has no time to make money, is that Rockefeller meant that if you spend your life doing tasks, you'll never rise high enough to own things that pay you for life. Earning a living is a different activity than building wealth, and once your mindset is shifted, actions follow, yep, actions develop into patterns, and those patterns become the new you. well as the last episode of the year on the show here, 52 weeks worth, I sure hope that I've helped you think, learn and grow your wealth, as have our guest contributors here early in the year, the father of Reaganomics was here, a man that frequently advised a president inside the White House. He told us how much he dislikes tariffs. Tariffs block free trade, and trade improves our lives. Major apartment investor, Ken McElroy, was here this year, and he predicted that the American home ownership rate will fall below 60% that would be major it's currently at 65 if the home ownership rate falls to 60% that would unleash millions of new renters into the market, and it has not been that low in decades, if ever you got a lot of mortgage insights with chailey Ridge, including learning how you can qualify for income property loans without a w2 job, without a pay stub or without tax returns by instead getting a DSCR loan. You'll recall this year that I discussed 50 year mortgages, and I did that before it even hit the news cycle, telling you that it could be coming and that it could be proposed. I explained why I like 50 year mortgages more than 30 year loans, but be aware it is not imminent that they're coming. Also this year, economist Richard Duncan and commentator Doug Casey discussed the Fed. Richard told us how the President is trying to totally restructure who serves on the Fed, trying to get low interest rate pushers in there. And then just last week, Doug and I discussed how fed decisions just keep hollowing out the middle class. A and E television star Todd drillette told us how to negotiate. I had four good discussions with our own investment coach, nuresh this year, more than usual, a pastor and I discussed a rare topic, what the Bible says about money. You learned how to use AI in your real estate investing and when not to. We had a few episodes about that. But above all the shows this year, they were about you, probably more than any other year that we've had here. I did more listener question episodes where I answered your questions as you wrote in, and I also had more listeners come right onto the show and tell me how this show has personally built their wealth. And of course, this year, I got to meet more of you in person when I served as a faculty member on the terrific real estate guys Investor Summit to see and I got to meet you personally for more than just a handshake. The event was set up so that chances are you had dinner with me as well. So rather than this show being a one way chat from me to you this year was more of a dialog between you and I and more two way communication. A lot of new topics are coming for next year, both me teaching and some great guests. If there's something on the show that you'd like to hear more of or less of, let us know. Write into us or use your voice to tell us either way you can do that. At get rich education.com/contact, let us know what you want to hear more of or less of. Do you like shorter term tactics like when and how to increase the rent? Or do you like mid range tactics like how to constantly do cash out refinances and get a tax free windfall from your properties every year. Or do you like more of the long term strategies like specifically how you profit from inflation? Let us know what you like again, at get rich education.com/contact, now, even if you're listening 10 years. Years from now, which I know you very well. May, I'm going to break down next year's home price appreciation forecast, but I'll do it in a way where you'll learn how to analyze a market for all time coming up. It's gre 2026, national home price appreciation forecast. Learn the future to the exact percent. First listen to this from Freedom family investments and Ridge lending group, because I'm a client of both myself and they can help you. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold   Keith Weinhold  10:29   you know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program. When you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom, family, investments.com/gre, or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,   Speaker 2  11:40   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   Robert Kiyosaki  12:14   this is our Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And there is, I respect Kate. He's a very strong, smart, bright young man.   Keith Weinhold  12:35   Welcome back to get rich education. It's episode 586 the last show of the year. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I am proud to present to you in this segment of the show gre 2026, national home price appreciation forecast, where I use my insight and experience so that you'll learn the exact percent that national home prices will either appreciate or depreciate next year. It's the fifth consecutive year that we're doing this. I nailed the first three spot on and then this year happened. I'll get to reviewing my track record, total accountability. First understand something, real estate values have never crashed in your entire lifetime, even if you're 90 years old, to grab eyeballs, slack jawed, tick tock. Call them crash talk. Economists keep making awful predictions about a housing price crash, and none of them have been worse than one that published last month in Newsweek, which outlines a as it's called, correction worse than 2008 and says national home prices will fall 50% five zero, starting as soon as next year. That's absurd, and I can't believe that a respectable publication would platform a view from an analyst like that, and I'm not going to call out that Doomsayer analyst's name. That's not my style. I'm sure you can find it that crash is about as likely as one social media post changing your political affiliation later today. Look, doomsayers don't care about you. They make dire predictions because they care about them. It elevates their clicks, their followers and their name recognition, and they never hang around to follow up on that prediction, but it harms you, because you miss out on the equity gains, and that's the real damage. In fact, this particular analyst also called for this year to have the second largest home price decline since World War Two. Well, national home prices have only fallen twice in that time period. In fact, going further back. Back to the 1930s Great Depression. They've only fallen twice. Yes, that means home prices have risen every single year since the 1930s except for two periods, a small decline of less than 1% around 1990 and then, of course, the severe downturn from the housing bubble and great recession from 2007 to 2011 or 2012 that's where prices dropped in total, 25 to 26% from peak to trough. Now why do I say that that period around 2008 was not a housing price crash. Well, because it wasn't. Instead, it was a slow bleed. The definition of financial crash is a sudden, sharp and widespread drop in prices. That's the definition. Well that can happen in some other asset classes like stocks or Bitcoin or perhaps even precious metals, but not real estate. It is neither sudden nor sharp. The worst year, 2008 saw home prices drop 12% in that one year and some of the other years bracketing it, home prices fell three to 4% in each of those years. So then during this time period of price attrition, during the global financial crisis, each month, real estate values fell just a few tenths of 1% maybe half of 1% or even one full percent, not a crash, a slow bleed. This means that it took about five years for values to fall, a total of near 25% I mean, that makes it really clear that it's not a crash. And again, this period was about 2007 to 2012 don't get me wrong, it was bad. I was a real estate investor both before and during 2008 but to call it a crash is hyperbolic, and that is because words mean things. I think a lot of media consumers get so conditioned to mass media sensationalism that they've forgotten what a crash even means. At some point, it begins to bend our very lexicon back around 2007 I remember I frequently checked a website called implode meter. Yeah, that's the name of it. It tracks, failing banks. I looked the other day and implodemeter.com is still in existence, even though it's not nearly as spicy as it used to be during the GFC, because lending has been pretty stable for a long time, and loans are well and carefully underwritten. So home prices are unusually stable over time, because, in a sense, housing is not a normal market. It is slow, regulated, credit driven, and it's emotionally sticky, even though rental property is less emotional. Well, the values of one to four unit property are tied to primary residence values, and that's where the emotion exists. So if you put all those together, you get prices that creep upward most years and rarely fall at all. Nationally. The real estate market moves too gradually to be crash susceptible. It is the place for real wealth building values also are not going to double annually if you want to scroll for dopamine hits from the couch. Well, you can do that with a prediction market like call she or in crypto with altcoins, while your real estate keeps leveraging dollars in a stable way in the background. That's how you can think about it. All right, so we've established since the Great Depression, home values have fallen twice and once substantially. Well, right now, home prices are up about 2% year over year. Most places have appreciated, especially the more affordable markets. Not only has home price growth been slow, though, rent growth has been slow as well. Single Family rents are up 1% per totality. Apartment rents are down one to 2% per Zumper. But back to our focus today, forecasting national home prices. Everything we're discussing is nominal price change, meaning not inflation adjusted, and it's single family homes up to fourplexes. Well, as we use context to build up to the big reveal today, where I'll tell you the exact percent that home prices will rise or fall next year. Could 2008 happen again any time soon? Let's isolate that out. It's important to look at history rather than. Having some uninformed hunch in both periods with price attrition around 1990 and 2008 these two falls have some attributes in common. So let's look at that. What led to these rare falls in home prices, irresponsible lending, forced selling, a vacancy issue and overbuilding. All four of those factors were in place during those two periods now leading up to 1990 the irresponsible lending was on the commercial side. That was the savings and loan crisis, but it did trickle into the residential market, and then in 2008 it was on the residential side. But of all four of those factors, none of them are in place today. Zero borrowers are strongly underwritten because they've got those full documentation loans, and virtually no one is forced to sell in a fire sale. In fact, homeowners still have these record equity positions of about 300k fewer than 3% of homeowners have a negative equity position, and there is no vacancy issue. Because, in fact, we've been under building. We'll look at that. So for next year, no substantial price of drawdown is coming. None's expected. We can isolate that out. Since I was investing directly in real estate through 2008 I know what happened is that when people walked away from properties, they did so because the economy got rough, their variable rate mortgages rose, they couldn't make their payments, or they just had no motivation to make their payments because they were underwater and had zero protective equity. In a lot of cases, it's almost impossible for that to happen today, homeowners can make their payments, and they're motivated to do so because they have that erstwhile equity to protect, like I said last week, through the Census Bureau data and realtor.com we know a couple things. Four in 10 homeowners have no mortgage at all. They own their property free and clear. Among the group with mortgages, 70% of borrowers still have a mortgage rate locked in at under 5% and blending those together for you means that then 82% of borrowers either have no mortgage or they've got a rate under 5% this translates to really affordable payments, along with The protective equity, even if inflation heats up again, it still cannot touch a borrower's mortgage payment amount because it is fixed. As we're leading up to the big reveal of next year's number, we're about to look at affordability, supply, demand and the effect of mortgage rates on prices. Of course, that word affordability, that has been the most central word to home buying for a couple years now, affordability will improve in three main ways. If either home prices fall, mortgage rates fall, or wages rise, it takes at least one of those three things, the good news is that this year, wages have been rising faster than both stated inflation and home prices. Wages have been rising close to 4% that looks to continue at least into the early part of next year. Well that improved affordability allows home prices to move up, and it gives room for rents to move up as well. Now when it comes to mortgage rates, if you're new to listening to me, it will be groundbreaking for you to realize that today, mortgage rates are low, and increases to mortgage rates usually lead to increases in home prices, not decreases. If you're new here, both of those facts might leave you saying what I thought it was the opposite. How can that be? I won't spend much time on this because longtime listeners already know these two things, but they do go into the forecast the long term 30 year fixed rate mortgage averages 7.7% per Freddie Mac thirst, that set goes back to 1971 and rates are lower than that now, and mortgage rates have risen 1% or more seven different times since 1994 and home prices increased all Seven times right alongside those rising mortgage rates. In fact, when rates more than doubled in 2022 what happened? Home prices soared to their highest appreciation year in a long time. It reinforced this so, yes, way higher rates equaled way. Higher prices. It's not that one directly causes the other. This is correlation versus causation. It's because rate increases confirm that the economy is doing well. I have discussed that extensively in previous episodes, so mortgage rates actually don't have that much to do with home prices, and that's why it is hardly going into the forecast for next year. I'll tell you what trying to forecast mortgage rates to then use that to predict home prices, that is a fantastic way to waste your time. Now, 1x factor that could make that different for next year is that this President, he imposes his will to make rates low no matter what. So even if the economy is good, which typically leads to higher rates, wholesale push to make rates low, and that's an artificial phenomenon. Wouldn't that make home prices boom if we had a strong economy and low rates? The fact that affordability is still historically low today, though, we appear to be off the bottom. Affordability is still historically low today, that has less to do with mortgage rates than most people think, since, again, rates are low when they're in the low sixes, like they currently are. Instead, affordability is soured, because over the long term, decades, wages haven't kept up with true inflation. That's what's really going on with affordability and what everybody misses, and because affordability is still strained, home prices cannot rise a lot, say 10 or 12% next year. That can't happen on a national basis next year, now, a bill is advancing through Congress now to make housing more affordable. It's got bipartisan support relaxing zoning requirements in such a bill that could help build more homes, but if the government tries to help by making access to loans easier, that is going to lead to even higher prices and really will not help with affordability beyond the short term. In fact, just this month, the Fed has resumed QE quantitative easing. And that effectively means that it is ramping up the number of dollars being printed. And these are just more dollars in existence coming in to chase real estate and every other assets values higher we look at the employment picture. Although unemployment has been ticking up lately, it is still low at under 5% what about housing supply versus demand? And future supply versus demand? Well, this is basic econ and it will totally affect future prices. Actually visited the home of the father of economics, Adam Smith in Scotland this year, the man that nearly invented the supply demand concept starting with supply. I think anyone in real estate knows that generally, over six months of housing supply is too much. Under six months is too little. Six months is sort of that balanced point. What does that really mean? Well, months of supply is how long it would take to sell all the homes currently for sale if no new listings came on the market. All right, that's all that means. Well, currently, that level is 4.2 months that is low, and that puts some upward pressure on prices as well. Another way to think about it is with the active listing count of single family homes and condos. All this means is the number of homes currently for sale and available to buy right now. That's what active listing count means when you see that statistic out there? Well, one and a half to 2 million is the normal level of units needed to adequately house our growing population, for single family homes and condos. Well, that figure bottomed out in 2022 and it's only hovered around one or 1.1 million for a few months now, we are under supplied, and it takes a long time to build our way out of it. Now, apartment buildings are a different story. They are oversupplied, but again, today, we're here focused on the future price direction of one to four unit properties. So that's supply, not as tight as it was, but still on the tight side, and then demand. Where is demand coming from? It comes from us. There's more of us. As our population keeps growing, there is a lot of housing demand coming. Not only is there pent up demand from those trying to afford a home as soon as they can, but more broadly. Demographically, I will point back to that period where there was a surge of us births from 1990 to 2010 there were over 4 million births every single one of those years, births peaked in 2007 if you add 40 years to that, because 40 years is now the average age of the first time homebuyer. That's still a mind blowing figure to me, 40 years the average age of the first time homebuyer. You add that to 2007 that peak birth rate year, and this demand won't even peak until about 2047   Speaker 2  30:36   and this doesn't even include additions from immigration, demand, demand, demand, propping up prices for decades, but for next year, improved affordability, which is expected that boosts the demand for those that have the capacity to pay. Well, considering everything we've covered, I'm about to reveal the number for next year. But first, I mean, gosh, don't you wish everyone actually followed up on their past forecasts, like I'm about to I don't think I've ever seen a price crash predictor follow up, because they're always wrong. Well, what is the track record of get rich, education, home, price appreciation forecasts. It's the fifth straight year I'm doing this, and I always release the forecast in the final days of the year in anticipation of the coming year, just like you and I are doing together now. For 2022 I said that prices would rise nine to 10% the year ended, and they came in at 10% 2023 a lot of people said home prices would fall because they had just seen a terrific run up. I said a price fall would not happen, largely due to that jaw droppingly low supply that we had then. I said zero, there wouldn't be any change. They came in at exactly zero. There was no price change in 2023 for 2024 I forecast 4% they came in at exactly 4% this is all documented. You can go back and listen to those episodes. They're all near year end. So yes, three straight years, I nailed it to the exact percent. How about this year? Just before the year began? Do you remember what my forecast figure was from listening here about a year ago, it was 5% home price appreciation. The year is not over yet, and real estate statistics move pretty slowly. Figures lag, but we pretty much know where it's going to end up. And as we look at this same stat set that I consistently use, which is the NARS national median existing single family home price, it is 2.2% as of late in the year, and it's almost certainly going to end up at 2% appreciation. So I would call that a miss, probably not a terrible call, but far enough apart to call that a miss, 5% forecast versus 2% actual for this year. That's the track record. So before I reveal the number for next year, in the last four I've nailed three of them spot on, and why was appreciation less than I expected for this year? Well, a few reasons. One of them is that inflationary pressure from tariffs was postponed. That Tariff Schedule was changed more times than anyone could have possibly forecast, and affordability stayed stubbornly low too. And here we go for 2026 how much home price appreciation or depreciation do I expect? Well, I haven't said this in any of the previous forecasts, because it's the easiest thing to say, and I often avoid saying the easiest thing, but this is just what I see coming, and that is, I expect more of the same. It's the first time I've said more of the same, which is drumroll here, 2% home price appreciation for next year. No wild figure or hyperbolic material here, in order to attract attention that is my best target for the truth, I'm here to do my best to be accurate and help you make the most informed decision, 2% for next year. So a 500k property today should cost you about 10,000 more dollars next year, and as we know, with a figure like 2% which is less appreciation than the long run historic 5% or so, with this 2% appreciation on new purchases, you leverage that five to one with your 80% loan, and you get a 10% return on your down payment. And you add in the other four ways real estate pays to your 10% leverage appreciation and at historic norms, you can end up with a 29% total ROI. That's realistic. I outlined the math of that in an earlier episode this year when I discussed how real estate pays five ways in a slow market, there you have it, 2% forecast home price appreciation for next year. If you want the charts that support the forecast and more, there's a way for you to get a hold of that, and also the best real estate maps, stories and investment opportunities that you won't see in any headlines. They are all in my free weekly newsletter. The newsletter also gives you access to my free real estate pays five ways. Video, course, that is it. GRE letter.com Get it all at one easy place. Gre letter.com I look forward to talking to you in the new year. I'm Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydrem   Speaker 3  36:06   nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  36:34   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, GetRichEducation.com  

When it came time to pick our holiday bonus episodes, Tim Arndt quickly came to mind. Few companies sit at the crossroads of as many 2025 storylines—tariffs, data centers, and AI—as Prologis. In our February conversation, Tim walked us through a “merger of equals” that reset leadership, the capital-markets discipline that followed, and why logistics is about “atoms, not electrons.” He tells us Prologis oversees roughly 1.3 billion square feet across 20 countries, with nearly 3% of global GDP touching its facilities. From post-GFC balance-sheet rigor to new rooftop energy and mobility plays, this one captured listeners' attention—and still feels timely. Enjoy this rerelease of one of our most-played episodes of the year.

In this episode, we’re joined by Bipen Rai, Managing Director and Head of ETF and Alternatives Strategy at BMO Global Asset Management. We discuss the current macro environment, the outlook for interest rates, and how investors should think about portfolio construction as markets move further away from the post-GFC playbook. Bipen shares his perspective on gold and why it continues to play an important role in portfolios, how macro risks are evolving, and what signals investors should be paying attention to as we move forward. We also touch on the broader investing landscape, risk management, and how investors can think more deliberately about diversification in an increasingly uncertain environment. BMO ETFs is a sponsor of The Canadian Investor Podcast. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, I sat down with Randeesh Sandhu to unpack a career that spans investment banking, real estate development, private credit, and public markets, and what it really takes to build a durable lending platform across multiple cycles. Randeesh is Co-Founder and CEO of Precede Capital Partners, founded in 2021 as a portfolio company of TowerBrook Capital Partners. Prior to Precede, he co-founded and led Urban Exposure Plc for nearly two decades, growing it into the UK's leading residential development financier. Under his leadership, the business deployed more than £1.7bn in development finance and over £3bn in real estate finance, before floating on the London Stock Exchange AIM market in 2018. In this conversation, Randeesh shares how he moved from credit derivatives at Deutsche Bank into real estate entrepreneurship, why underwriting discipline matters more than chasing deals, and how the post-GFC withdrawal of banks created the foundations of the UK's non bank lending market. We also discuss the realities of scaling a private credit platform, lessons from public markets, the personal cost of leadership, and how Precede is now positioning itself across large scale, living led real estate in the UK and Europe. Key Topics Covered in This Episode ✅ From Deutsche Bank to Real Estate Entrepreneur Why Randeesh left investment banking to build a property business and how that early leap shaped his approach to risk and conviction. ✅ Building and Scaling Urban Exposure How the platform evolved from equity and development into private credit, and what it takes to deploy billions without capital loss. ✅ Private Credit After the GFC Why non bank lenders emerged, how structured lending works in practice, and what institutional investors look for today. ✅ Lessons from Public Markets What Randeesh learned from listing on AIM, navigating volatility, and why private ownership can better support long term strategy. And of course, I asked Randeesh the big question: Who are the People, what Property, and which Place would you invest in if you had £500 million to deploy? If you have thoughts or questions about this episode, drop them in the comments. I'd love to hear your take. The People Property Place Podcast is powered by Rockbourne, recruiting leadership talent for real estate funds, owners, investors, and developers.

It was a pleasure to welcome Ian Harnett, co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion explores how long periods of low volatility and abundant liquidity can quietly allow systemic risks to accumulate outside the traditional banking system. Drawing on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, Ian explains why today's financial system—now dominated by non-banks rather than banks—requires a different risk framework.  While post-GFC regulation focused on large banks and insurers, much of the system's leverage and liquidity transformation has migrated toward pension funds, private equity, insurance companies, and private credit vehicles. In the U.S. alone, roughly three-quarters of private-sector financial assets are now controlled by non-banks, reshaping how shocks can propagate through markets. A key theme of the discussion is that systemic risk is multiplicative rather than additive. Ian argues that past crises were often triggered not by the largest institutions, but by smaller nodes in the system that proved critical once stress emerged. Today, he highlights the growing role of private-equity-backed insurers, which tend to hold riskier assets, maintain lower capital buffers, and allocate more heavily to private credit—an area that remains largely illiquid and difficult to mark to market. Ian's work emphasizes cash flow as a central lens for assessing vulnerability. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ian Harnett.

Send us a text99% of real estate investors say the model tells the truth.But in practice, the data is messy.And the herd is loud.3 weeks ago, I got to interview a real estate finance hero of mine:@ Colin Lizieri - Professor of Real Estate Finance At the @ university of Cambridge.And a global authority on how markets really price risk.In 20 minutes, we dug into:→ Signal vs noiseWhy real estate data is so unreliable And quick checks to make sure your assumptions actually stack.→ Herd-driven mispricingReal examples - pre-GFC, life sciences, “new paradigm” storiesAnd how to tell if you're investing on evidence or FOMO.→ Bias in ICsHow strong personalities bend modelsAnd simple fixes: written views before IC, a named devil's advocate,And backtesting deals where you overruled the numbers.If you're an institution or serious SMEtrying to avoid buying at the wrong price / wrong timethis one's worth a listen - link below.This episode is in association with (and thanks to) Lloyds.In association with:https://www.lloydsbank.com/business/industry-expertise/real-estate.html?utm_source=The+Return&utm_medium=podcast+partnership&utm_campaign=sponsored+episodeGuest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-lizieri-996694214/Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/

Making ‘Play of the Day’ after a clash with Dick Johnson and running their own privateer Supercars team on the Gold Coast. Co driving for the Stone Brothers and Marcos Ambrose and acquiring Team Brock. The crash at Bathurst that ended his Supercars career and why he’s lucky to be alive! The new gen Trophy Truck on the way for he and Toby Price amid the unfinished business they have at Baja. Establishing PWR and the how the GFC very nearly ended it all. Coming to the attention of F1 teams and the intros to North American Motorsport thanks to a good friend of the pod, Leigh Diffey. Plus the next generation Weel taking aim at the Olympic Games after growing up with the family’s ‘no risk, no fun’ policy. The idea for this ep came about after Rusty’s recent Baja 1000 bucket list adventure with the team from BFGoodrich tyres.Head to Rusty's Facebook, Twitter or Instagram and give us your feedback and let us know who you want to hear from on Rusty's GarageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Commercial Property Investing Explained, Steve Palise sits down with anaesthetist, academic, and investor Alwin Chuan to unpack how he went from being almost entirely invested in shares to building a diversified residential and commercial property portfolio that is now positively geared and largely self-sustaining.The conversation traces Alwin's journey from humble beginnings as a first-generation migrant in Sydney's west, through decades in medicine, to making some of his biggest investment decisions during periods of uncertainty like the GFC and post-COVID markets. Alwin shares why residential property alone was not enough to meet his long term goals, what attracted him to commercial property, and how yield, lease structure, and tenant quality became critical as retirement moved from a distant idea to a real planning horizon.This episode covers:Alwin's early exposure to investing through shares and how that shaped his risk mindsetWhy he bought property during downturns and how those decisions paid off long termThe key differences between residential and commercial property, including yield, risk, and tenant relationshipsHow Alwin transitioned from almost 100% shares to a multi-asset portfolioWhy positive cash flow changed how he thinks about investing, stress, and retirementThe commercial properties he owns today, including medical and industrial assets, with zero day vacancyWhy the property manager is, in his view, the most important person in a property portfolioHow Alwin thinks about retirement optionality, semi-retirement, and intergenerational wealthWhether you are a medical professional, a residential investor considering commercial property, or someone thinking seriously about building income streams that support long-term flexibility, this episode offers grounded insights from someone who has lived through multiple market cycles and made deliberate, patient decisions along the way.Get FREE access to the Commercial Property Institute course -  CLICK HEREGet FREE access to the Residential Property Institute course - CLICK HEREGet your FREE copy of Commercial Property Investing Explained Simply - Use discount code PODCAST CLICK HEREGet your FREE Commercial Property Paydown Calculator CLICK HERE Follow Palise Property on FACEBOOK for Free Tips Tricks & Insights CLICK HEREHOSTED BY:Steve PalisePh: 0403 878 497Email: steve@paliseproperty.comLinkedIn: https://au.linkedin.com/in/steve-paliseCONNECT WITH Alwin ChuanLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alwin-chuan-phd-fanzca-094880288/ 

In this episode, host Bill Kelly sits down with Brett Hickey, Founder and CEO of Star Mountain Capital, to explore the landscape of lower middle market private credit. Brett shares how his early experiences shaped his approach to entrepreneurship, leadership, and long-term investing. The conversation covers the evolution of private credit post-GFC, structural inefficiencies in the lower middle market, and Star Mountain's strategy for generating value through operational expertise, alignment of interest, and AI-driven insights. They also address diversification risks, executive underwriting, and maintaining discipline while scaling responsibly.

In this episode of the Grow Your Wealth podcast, host Travis Miller sits down with Gary Sly, a banking and capital markets veteran with more than 40 years of experience across Australia, the US, the UK, and New Zealand. Gary shares his unconventional path into finance- from aspiring Navy pilot to landing his first role with the local bank manager - and how that evolved into a distinguished career in securitisation. He reflects on market cycles from the late 90s through the GFC to today's highly liquid environment, explaining how structures, investor behaviour, and regulation have changed across decades. Gary also opens up about the mentors who shaped him, the importance of trust in client relationships, pivotal career moments, long-term investing lessons, and life outside the markets. This episode is packed with insights for anyone interested in banking, structured finance, or building a resilient career in financial markets. [00:00:00] – Introduction: Meet Gary Sly and His Four-Decade Career in Banking and Capital Markets [00:05:06] – From Gunnedah to Global Markets: Early Career, Part-Time Study, and Discovering Securitisation [00:12:30] – Market Evolution: Pre-GFC Structures, the Crisis, and the Rebuild of Australia's ABS Market [00:18:00] – Tranching, Regulation, and the Rise of New Investor Segments Across the Capital Stack [00:23:13] – Private Credit, Warehouses, and How Securitisation Logic Now Powers the Broader Market [00:28:18] – Mentors, Leadership, and Lessons from Working with Top Treasury and Banking Executives [00:33:01] – Career Advice: Education, Patience, Asking Better Questions, and Navigating Opportunity [00:37:15] – Life Beyond Banking: Photography, Surfing, Family, and Finding Balance [00:38:23] – Final Thoughts and Connecting with Gary Sly on LinkedIn iPartners Website: https://www.ipartners.com.au Register Here: https://ipartners.iplatforms.com.au/register/register-as-wholesale/ iPartners LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ipartners-pty-ltd

In this episode of the Grow Your Wealth podcast, host Travis Miller sits down with Gary Sly, a banking and capital markets veteran with more than 40 years of experience across Australia, the US, the UK, and New Zealand. Gary shares his unconventional path into finance- from aspiring Navy pilot to landing his first role with the local bank manager - and how that evolved into a distinguished career in securitisation. He reflects on market cycles from the late 90s through the GFC to today's highly liquid environment, explaining how structures, investor behaviour, and regulation have changed across decades. Gary also opens up about the mentors who shaped him, the importance of trust in client relationships, pivotal career moments, long-term investing lessons, and life outside the markets. This episode is packed with insights for anyone interested in banking, structured finance, or building a resilient career in financial markets. [00:00:00] – Introduction: Meet Gary Sly and His Four-Decade Career in Banking and Capital Markets [00:05:06] – From Gunnedah to Global Markets: Early Career, Part-Time Study, and Discovering Securitisation [00:12:30] – Market Evolution: Pre-GFC Structures, the Crisis, and the Rebuild of Australia's ABS Market [00:18:00] – Tranching, Regulation, and the Rise of New Investor Segments Across the Capital Stack [00:23:13] – Private Credit, Warehouses, and How Securitisation Logic Now Powers the Broader Market [00:28:18] – Mentors, Leadership, and Lessons from Working with Top Treasury and Banking Executives [00:33:01] – Career Advice: Education, Patience, Asking Better Questions, and Navigating Opportunity [00:37:15] – Life Beyond Banking: Photography, Surfing, Family, and Finding Balance [00:38:23] – Final Thoughts and Connecting with Gary Sly on LinkedIn iPartners Website: https://www.ipartners.com.au Register Here: https://ipartners.iplatforms.com.au/register/register-as-wholesale/ iPartners LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ipartners-pty-ltd

Keith reviews the state of the real estate market, noting that existing home sales are down about 33% from their 2021 peak, while prices remain firm due to low supply and high demand.  Affordability challenges are driven by stagnant wages, inflation, and higher mortgage rates, with 70% of mortgage holders still locked in at rates below 5%.  He observes that in certain markets, new construction may now offer better investor terms than comparable existing properties, especially where builders buy down rates.  The episode highlights a comparison of nearly a century of asset class returns, reporting real estate's long-term annual appreciation at approximately 4.7%. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/583 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com or text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation   Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, how do other audiences feel about the GRE mantras that we've come to love here, like financially free beats debt free and don't get your money to work for you? Then sometimes it's not what you're attracted to in life, but what you're running away from finally comparing the returns from six major asset classes over the past century all today on get rich education    Keith Weinhold  0:29   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:18   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:34   Welcome to GRE from Kennebunkport, Maine to Bridgeport, Connecticut and across 188 nations worldwide. It is the voice of real estate investing since 2014 I'm Keith Weinhold, and I'm grateful to have you here with me, and we're doing something a little different today, as you'll soon listen in to me as I was on the hot seat being interviewed on another prominent real estate show. But first, when you pull back and ask yourself, why you're really an investor in the first place? There are so many reasons. Maybe you just want a few properties in order to supplement your day job income. Maybe you want to have more than a few so that you can completely replace that active income, or perhaps rather than going the route of building up your cash flow, which is valid, but some think that it's the only way to real estate financial freedom. Instead, you could own, say, nine doors or 22 doors, and even if they all had zero cash flow, you can just keep borrowing against that leverage and equity tax free and live off of that whatever you do when it comes to your day job, income, your degree of disdain for your nine to five job that is going to be greater or less than it is for some others. So your motivation for self improvement, it isn't always about what you're running to in life, which could be real estate investing, but it's also what you're running away from, especially if you don't get a deeply rooted sense of meaning from your job. So you could have both a push factor and a pull factor in what motivates you. There's a scene from the 1999 movie Office Space that just does this incredibly unvarnished job of saying out loud how so many of us feel today. What I'm going to share with you, I mean, you know that you have felt this at least once in your life. Office space wasn't supposed to be a mega hit movie, but it kind of was, because it's so relatable. Let's listen in to part of this clip. This is Ron Livingston playing a disgruntled male employee talking to Jennifer Aniston at a restaurant about his job in the movie Office Space.   Speaker 1  4:09   I don't like my job, and I don't think I'm gonna go anymore. You're just not gonna go. Yeah, won't you get fired? I don't know, but I really don't like it, and I'm not gonna go.   Keith Weinhold  4:24   Then it continues when she asks. So you're just gonna quit? No, not really. I'm just gonna stop going. When did you decide all of that? About an hour ago? Really? Yeah, aren't you going to get another job? I don't think I'd like another job. What are you going to do about money in bills and all that? I've never really liked paying bills. I don't think I'm going to do that either.   Keith Weinhold  4:53   That's it. That is the end of that classic dialog from office space that we can. All relate to you did not wake up to be mediocre, but a lot of people's jobs pummel them into a rather prosaic state. You were born rich because you were born with this abundance of choices, this huge palette in menu, but society often stifles that and makes you forget it, and it gets really easy to just fall into your groove and stay there. The main reason we aren't living our dreams is really because we're living our fears. Failure doesn't actually destroy as many dreams as people think fear and doubt. Does fear and doubt destroy more dreams than failure ever does financial runway? That is a phrase for the amount of time that you can maintain your lifestyle without the need for a paycheck. And it's critical for you to lengthen this runway if you hope to retire early, and it will dramatically reduce your stress level. An example is say that you currently earn 150k per year after taxes, and you spend 126k of that, all right. Well, that means you've got a surplus of 24k a year. Well, it's going to take you a little over five years to accumulate that 126k that you need to annually support your lifestyle. That's what happens if you don't invest. And see investing helps you lengthen your financial runway, that amount of time you can maintain your lifestyle without the need for a paycheck. That's what we're talking about here. Last week I brought you the show from Caesar's Palace in the center of the Las Vegas Strip. So therefore, what I've done is I have gone from the ostentatious and flamboyant over here to the familial and simple as this week I'm in Buffalo New York, broadcasting from a somewhat makeshift GRE studio here, the Buffalo Bills had a home game yesterday, so the city and hotels are busier than usual. Next week, I will bring you the show from upstate Pennsylvania, as I'm traveling to see my family. Let's listen in to me on the hot seat. I was recently a guest on Kevin bups long running real estate investing show. You're going to get to see how I present information and GRE principles for the first time to a different audience. And as I do, you're going to hear me provide new material, but you'll also hear me say quite a few things that I have told you before, even then, the concepts might land differently when I'm explaining them to a new audience. The show is based in Florida, so We'll also touch on the real estate pain and opportunity there. After I'm interviewed, I'm going to come back and tell you about something fascinating. I'm going to compare the returns from six major asset classes over the past century, since 1930 anyway, and that's going to include the first time on the show where I'll tell you real estate's annual appreciation rate over the last entire century. Just about what do you think it is? 8% 5% 3% you're gonna have, perhaps the best answer you've ever had. Here we go.   Kevin Bupp  8:31   Now, guys, I want to welcome back a guest that we've had on. It's been a number of years now. Keith Weinhold, I went back to look at the last episode we had him on. I think it's been about four years. So, you know, four years ago, the world was in the very different state. It was a very different time. And so, you know, thankfully, we're out of the covid era and on to newer and greater things. So for those that don't know Keith, he's the founder of get rich education. He's the host of the popular get rich education podcast. He's a longtime thought leader in the real estate investing space, and like myself. Keith was also born and raised in Pennsylvania. For those that know don't know, I was born and raised in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Keith, I believe, a couple hours away from where I was. But Keith has very much a unique perspective on wealth, building debt, and really the housing market as a whole. And today, you know, we'll be diving into everything you know, from why the property itself? This is something that Keith kind of coins, why the property itself is less important than you think, to how the housing crash has already happened in a way that most people don't even realize, to the role inflation and debt play in building long term wealth. And so again, it's been a number of years here, so I'm excited to welcome Keith back here. So my friend, Keith, welcome to the show. It's it's a pleasure to have you back here again, my friend.   Keith Weinhold  9:43   Oh, Kevin, it's good to be here and be in the auspices of another fellow native Pennsylvanian as well.   Kevin Bupp  9:49   That's right, that's right, yeah, no, Pa is rocking and rolling as I think I told you this little, this little tidbit last time everyone, every time I speak with someone from Pennsylvania, they never know this. But I'm going to share this fun fact. Are you already know, Keith. I'm gonna share it with the rest of the listeners here today, Pennsylvania, those that are born and raised there. It's the only state where, if you're from Pennsylvania, you refer to it by its initials, and you assume that everyone else, everywhere else across the country, they know what you're talking about when you say I'm from PA and that's the only state that does that. So I think it's pretty neat.   Keith Weinhold  10:19   That's right. No one else does that. No one else says, I'm from TN, if they're from Memphis, right?   Kevin Bupp  10:24   They don't, they don't. So with that, my friend. So, you know, it's, again, it's been a number of years since we, since we had you last on here, you know, let's start with just, let's back up a little bit. You know, what have you been up to? I mean, what, what have the last few years look like for you? Where have you been spending your time, energy and efforts? Obviously, it's, you know, we've gone through some quite a bit of turmoil over the last five years, and would love to just get an update as to what's going on your life.    Speaker 2  10:48   Well, one of the big words in real estate investing, we all know it, even the person that cuts your hair and cleans your teeth knows it, and that's affordability. You know, really, affordability has been under fire, under pressure. By a lot of measures, we have the worst affordability for home buying since the early 80s, when the Jeffersons was on television. So it's been helping a lot of people deal with that. It's really the effect of three things, general inflation, higher home prices and higher mortgage rates. Really, those three things the crux of the problem. It's not exactly inflation, really. It's the fact that over the long term, wages don't keep up with inflation. And really that's the crux of the affordability problem. So I've been helping people deal with that and put that in perspective, really, Kevin,   Kevin Bupp  11:42   what does that mean for, you know, investment, real estate? I mean, are you still still doing deals? Are you seeing deals still get done by your students? I mean, what? What's your world look like?   Keith Weinhold  11:52    Yeah. I mean, I think you're asking, you know, how many deals are taking place? One way to measure that on a national basis is existing home sales. You know, existing home sales have been down substantially. And when a lot of people hear that, they think, prices, oh no, we're not talking about prices. We're talking about existing home sales. That means sales volume. That means the amount of overall transactions. So to give an idea of a real estate market, a residential one that's become pretty lethargic and not very vibrant, is that sales volume. It had its recent peak of about 6 million home sales back in 2021 I mean, 2021 was crazy, kind of the crux of the pandemic, you know, Kevin, that's when for an open house. You saw cars wrapped around the block for just one open house. Okay, well, that year 2021 there were 6 million existing home sales. Today, we're on pace to do about 4 million, and we also did only about 4 million last year. So if you put that in perspective and think about what that means, prices have stayed stable, but that's a 33% reduction in transactions. So investors, you know, people like you and I, Kevin, we're not as affected by this as some other industries. But think about the mortgage loan industry. If you're doing 33% fewer transactions, think about the hard decisions companies have to make and lay people off. 33% fewer transactions for title companies. It's probably close to 33% fewer transactions for furniture companies as well. So really it's both affordability that's been a problem, and that's led to this relative lethargy, kind of a slow, not very interesting residential real estate market, at least from the transaction perspective, really, really slow.   Kevin Bupp  13:58   But Could, could one not argue, I don't know the data points. Keith, I guess, what did it look like? 2021? Was kind of the peak. I think you'd reference 6 million units a year. Transactionally, what did it look like prior? What, what was, what was a more normal year like? And maybe 2020, wasn't a normal year either, right? Because a lot of folks thought the role was ending for a period of time. You know, 2019 maybe just again, trying to, trying to find maybe a better baseline to use. And then, you know, does, I guess, in my mind, and I don't follow these data points as much as you do, is that maybe 2021, was, you know, somewhat artificial inflation, right? Lots of lots of money pumping into the marketplace. And ultimately, we had to get back to a sense of normalcy at some point in time. And so are we at a at a place of normalcy? Are we still behind the eight ball a little bit?   Keith Weinhold  14:44   We're still behind the eight ball a little bit. 5 million is more of a normal long term number. But yeah, I mean, if we've got 4 million now, that's, you know, 25% less still than 5 million, sort of this long term normalcy rate of existing. Home transactions. And if you're a careful listener, you notice I've been using the word existing that doesn't include new build. So you know, when you the listener out there reading headlines, always look at that closely. We talking about existing? Are we talking about new build? You can learn a lot from that when you introduce new build data that introduces an awful lot of noise. For example, even when we look at prices, sometimes we want to exclude new construction. So why is that? Why do we want to focus on existing a lot? Well, because new build can introduce a lot of aberrations to the market. For example, the size of new build properties has dropped substantially the past few years, again, coming back to the central theme of affordability to help make a home more affordable. So we're not looking at same same when the square footage of a property drops a lot. And also, another thing that's been happening as a response to the lack of affordability is you have more builders building further and further out from a central business district where there are lower land costs for that new build property as well to help meet affordability. So the takeaway is, yeah, we want to be careful when we look at numbers. Are we looking at existing? Are we looking at new? Are we looking at overall properties.   Kevin Bupp  16:22   If you believe that if rates come down, we really is that the is that the lever that has to be pulled in order for that transactional volume to kick back up and, you know, make homes more affordable for the average home buyer,   Keith Weinhold  16:34   yeah, it's certainly going to help. I mean, really lower rates is the most likely significant lever that can help with the affordability crisis. Prices are pretty firm. Home prices are up 2% year over year. It's difficult for home prices to fall. In fact, home prices have only fallen one time substantially since World War Two. A lot of people don't realize that. So home prices are firm. I expect them to stay firm. And then the other lever is if we get a huge surge in wage increases, which I really don't expect anytime soon, unless we have another really big bout of inflation. So to your point, yes, lower mortgage rates like, that's the biggest lever that can help affordability return. And to speak to mortgage rates, Kevin and help put all of this into perspective, including this affordability component, is the fact that today, mortgage rates are low, and that gives a lot of people pause. They're like, What are you talking about? Mortgage rates were 3% even as low as two point some percent, just as recently as 2021 and early 2022 What are you talking about? Like, mortgage rates are 2x to 3x that today we look at a long term perspective when we look at the arc of mortgage rates, instead of in setting up expectations where we think rates could go. And we need to look at a frame of reference. Mortgage rates peaked over 18% in 1981 that's if you had a good credit score and everything on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. That's what we're talking about here. In fact, Freddie Mac, they're the ones that have the best, most reliable stat set for mortgage rates, and that goes back to 1971 the average mortgage rate since 1971 all the way up to today, through all these presidential administrations you know, Nixon and in the Reagan years, and Clinton and the bushes and Obama, everything You know up to today, from 1971 until today, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 7.7% so that's why I talk about how mortgage rates are, you know, moderate to a little low today. That takes a lot of people back. I don't see any impetus. It's going to get us back to, say, 3% mortgage rates. So some real perspective here.   Kevin Bupp  19:06   Yeah, yeah, no. And, you know, the interesting thing again, you might have data points on this to see, is a lot of the lack, do you feel that a lot of the lack of transactional volume is also related to those folks that have locked in, you know, 3% you know, mortgages, right? Like they're they, why would they sell and ultimately trade into a, maybe a, you know, a, you know, upgrade of a home, but ultimately be paying significantly more than that of what they're paying at the present time, you know, double the cost of capital. Your rates today, 30 year, rates are where the six and a half, 7% range, I don't follow it, but yeah.   Keith Weinhold  19:42   I mean, as of today, 6.3% is is where they're at. But yeah, you have a lot of those homeowners locked in to low rates. I mean, first, if we just pull back and look at the overall homeowner landscape, four in 10 have a paid off property. So just to talk to those about the other. Or 60% that percentage that are mortgage borrowers, among borrowers, 70% still have a mortgage rate under 5% meaning it starts with a four or less. So yeah, you're bringing up astutely Kevin the lock. In effect, people are reluctant to sell and give up that rate to trade it for a higher rate. And here's what's interesting, a lot of people if they couldn't make the payments on their home and say they lost their home, something that actually happened a lot in 2008 when people were locked into in sustainable mortgages because they didn't have good credit and they didn't have good income, the borrower is in good shape today. But even if, for some reason, they couldn't make the payments on their home, and they lost their home and they had to rent. Rents are actually higher in many cases, than what that mortgage principal and interest payment is. Maybe even the mortgage principal interest, taxes and insurance that they pay today are lower than what comparable rent would be, and this helps stabilize the housing market, people are really motivated to make their payments, and they can easily do it when it is so low, speaking to that lock in effect, and we're bringing up another reason now why transaction volume is so low, that lock in effect. So homeowners are in good shape. Their payments are sustainable. They don't want to sell, and they're just staying put. They're staying in place   Kevin Bupp  19:42   tying that all back around. Keith, what does that mean for us real estate investors? I mean, is there still good value out in the marketplace? I mean, is the rent to value ratio still, you know, Is there good opportunity to be had, as far as ROI for an investor that wants to buy into a residential investment or a multifamily investment, or anything related to that of residential housing?   Keith Weinhold  19:42   Well, the deals in the one to four unit space, single family homes up the four Plex buildings, yeah, just are not as good as they used to be. The ratio of rent income to purchase price is lower than it was five years ago. And that's so simple, but that's just really the simplest formula for profitability for a real estate investor, you don't have to look at cap rate or or NOI in the one to four unit space. Let's just look at that ratio of rent income to purchase price. 20 years ago, it was easy to find a full 1% meaning, on a 200k property, you could get $2,000 worth of rent income. That's that 1% ratio. But now oftentimes you've got to find something that's more like seven tenths of 1% that would be a $1,400 rent on a 200k property. So that simple formula, and I love that, the rent income divided by the purchase price when I'm looking at properties, when I'm scrolling or scanning like that's a calculation you can do in your head. It's only if I would see a ratio that appears really good, oh, that I would like drill down and look at that property more closely. So of course, when you have something that is that simple, though, rent income divided by purchase price, there's a lot of things that doesn't tell you. You know, what kind of mortgage interest rate can you get? What kind of property tax Do you pay in that jurisdiction? But really, I love the simplicity. That's it, rent divided by price, but it has been under attack. Now today, I still don't know where you're going to get a better risk adjusted return than you do with a carefully bought income property with a loan. I've always liked fixed interest rate debt the best risk adjusted return anywhere. I really don't know of a better one than with buying real estate, because real estate investors have so many profit centers, five simultaneous profit centers, which few people understand. Yeah.   Kevin Bupp  19:42   So using that, I want to, I want to unpack the the 1% rule a little bit for those that aren't familiar with it. And again, there's a lot of variables there, as you had mentioned, you know, mortgage rate, taxes, insurance and that respective market that you that you're buying in, and so what? What are you really trying to back into when applying that rule? Is there? Is there? Is there a true cash on cash return that you're hoping to achieve, again, assuming all these other variables that we just don't know, what they are at this point, you know? Is there a target range of actual ROI that you're actually looking to achieve when applying that 1% rule?   Keith Weinhold  19:42   No, I'm just looking for any positive cash flow. You know, to your point, yeah, there's nothing like the cash on cash return needs to be at least three and a half percent or something like that. But, yeah, I still like buying a property that's that's greater than a break even. Inflation is probably going to increase your cash flow over time, even if you bought a property that that broke even or just had a trickle of cash flow or a $100 cash flow today, a lot of people don't understand that fact that right there you can't count on it, you shouldn't count on. Getting rent increases. But we all know it generally happens over time at a rate of about 3% a year, but it actually increases your cash flow. If you increase your rent 5% your cash flow can often increase something like 12% why is that? How could that happen? That's because, you know, it's key for the person that was listening closely, you get fixed interest rate debt, so your rent income goes up, your expenses increase, except for that mortgage principal and interest. Inflation can touch it. It's kind of like a mosquito buzzing against a window and always trying to get in. And inflation can't touch that in a way. It's sort of like debt that's an asset in some unusual way, or some play on words, getting that debt so So yes, you can't count on rent increases over time. We know what typically happens, and that's really part of the compelling value proposition of buying income property with a loan. You're sort of leveraging inflation. You're really on the right side of it.   Kevin Bupp  20:08   Are there any particular markets that you feel are ripe for opportunity today where you're spending your focus and energies in?   Keith Weinhold  20:08   Yeah, it's still in high cash flowing markets like Memphis, okay, little rock and a good part of the Midwest and the Midwest still has home prices appreciating faster than the national average as well. So those are some of the areas that I like. Those jurisdictions also tend to have laws, as your listeners might know this already, Kevin, they tend to have laws that benefit the landlord more so than the tenant, where you can get a prompt eviction, but those are still the areas where you do get that high ratio of rent income to purchase price on a single family rental home, you might still find eight tenths of 1% meaning $800 worth of rent for every 100k of property purchase in places exactly like that.   Kevin Bupp  20:08   I was hoping that you tell me 1% rule would is applicable.   Keith Weinhold  20:08   It's pretty rare. You know, if you do see, if you do see a property that has a full 1% rent to purchase price ratio, it could be in a sketchy area, you need to make sure that you can actually get the rent in like you would get a respectful rent paying tenant in there. That's something that we would have to look at more closely.   Kevin Bupp  20:08   Have you explored building new product? Is there an opportunity there getting at a lower basis by building ground up?   Keith Weinhold  19:42   You asked such a smart question. This is actually the first time ever, as long as I've been an active real estate investor, Kevin for more than 20 years where new build purchases for income property make more sense than existing purchases. Why is that? It's because builders know that investors and borrowers are struggling to buy and afford property and make the numbers work. Like you're talking about, that builders are incentivized to buy down your rate. For you, to buy down your mortgage rate, we deal with a lot of providers that buy down your mortgage rate to 5% or less for you, and this is a fixed, long term loan in order to help get the numbers to work. You know, especially where you might see a new build property where the rent to purchase price ratio is less than seven tenths of 1% and it's just like, ah, the numbers wouldn't work paying a higher mortgage rate, but some are willing to buy them down to as little as four and a half. However, if you're looking into buying a new build income producing property, you do want to look at that closely. Who is paying for the discount points to buy down the rate. Is it the builder, or is it you? Because some builders just suggest, hey, you can buy down. You can have your rate bought down. But yeah, the next question is, yeah, okay, who is actually doing the buy down? Yeah.   Keith Weinhold  19:43   I mean, just getting tacked on. I mean, in that instance, I'm assuming that a lot of it's just getting tacked on to the to the back end of the purchase price, or it's being baked into closing costs somewhere somebody is paying for it. More than likely the borrower is paying for it. Paying for it. Is that? Is that? Again, I'm assuming we probably have that here in Florida. Again, I don't really follow the residential market too much, but there's, as you had mentioned, like, kind of on the the outskirts of Tampa, the tertiary, necessary, tertiary, probably more secondary areas. That's where a lot of the builds are happening. Lots of these, you know, planned subdivisions. You know, hundreds and 1000s of homes being put up. And in my understanding, through the grapevine, is I hear that they're, you know, sales volumes is incredibly slow, and a lot of these builders are now offering some creative loan products, again, to what you've just stated there, to attract, not necessarily even just homeowners, but also investors, to come in and buy their product from them. Is, is there a real opportunity there, though? I mean, have you seen investors be able to benefit from buying brand new product at a fair price, with economics at work keeping as a rental?   Keith Weinhold  29:53   I have and Florida has some builders that are almost desperate. I'm a long time investor. Know personally, directly in Florida, income property, Southwest Florida, places like Cape Coral, they have been ground zero for real estate depreciation, a contraction in real estate values year over year of 10% or more in some southwest Florida markets. So like the post pandemic, migration boom is certainly over in Florida. And you know, Kevin, as little as 10 years ago, people used to talk about buy in Florida. It's cheap, it's sunny, cheap and cheerful, like you would sort of hear that sort of thing about Florida real estate. That is no longer true. Florida just is not as cheap as it used to be. It's the same or higher than the national median home price now in Florida. So yes, some builders are rather desperate. The other benefit of buying new build, especially in a place like Florida, where a lot of new building has taken place and the supply actually exceeds the demand here in the short period. You can take advantage of that, not only by getting the rate buy down, but because homeowners insurance premiums are substantially less on new build property, because they're built to today's wind mitigation and other standards than they are existing property. I have a friend that just bought a new Florida duplex through us in Ocala, Florida. That's sort of a central, North Central Florida, on that new build duplex that he paid 400k for. I saw the actual insurance premium, the the rate sheet, $694.06 $694 694 so the benefit of buying new build is you get a lower insurance premium. You get these rate buy down. Sometimes what your builder will buy for you make for you rather and of course, you're probably going to have low maintenance costs for a long time, since it's a new build property, and you get a tenant that is probably going to stay longer than the average duration. They're the first person to ever live there. It's difficult for the tenant to improve their housing situation when they have a new build income property, unless they would go out and buy, and it's a very difficult time to go out and buy. So through that lack of affordability, really, the advantage for a real estate investor is tenants are staying put longer. The average tenancy duration is up because they can't run out and be a first time homebuyer.    Keith Weinhold  32:32   You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom, family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep. Text their freedom coach directly. Again. 1937795898, 77958989   Keith Weinhold  33:44   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   Todd Drowlette  34:17   this is the star of the A and E show the real estate commission. Todd Rowlett, listen to get rich education with my friend Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Kevin Bupp  34:38   That even trickles down to the to the space that we're in. We're in the mobile home park space. And while we don't have a lot of rentals inside of our portfolio, most of our residents own their home and they rent the land, but throughout our portfolio, we have roughly 400 units that we own that we have as standardized rentals, and we've noticed that trend as well. Historically. 10 years ago, you. Yeah, we track actually about, I can take it back about eight years, where we actually have data to support this. This claim is that our average renter would stay about 16 months. That was fairly standard. Whereas today it's over, it's nearly three years. At this point in time, the majority are staying nearly three in there's probably, there's some variables in there. You know, eight years ago, we weren't bringing a lot of new product into our communities, whereas a lot of the mobile home parks that we purchased today do have a lot of newer mobile homes in them. So again, to your point, it's, it's a it's a newer home. It's fresh. There might not be the first person that lived there, maybe they're only the second, right? But it's still a very new home. It's only a couple years old. All the appliances are new. It's fresh, you know, it's well insulated, and it's just a high quality product, but, but it's nearly double of what we used to experience and what we used to underwrite. It's, you know, which is, which is interesting. You know, I am, I want to, I want to circle back, you'd mentioned Cape Coral. I've got quite a bit, quite a bit of experience with Cape Coral. This is not the first time that Cape Coral and Port Charlotte in those areas have crashed. I mean, like, they've got quite an interesting history in time, back during the GFC, that area down there took probably one of the biggest hits in most of Florida, while, you know, the rest of Florida got, you know, pounded pretty hard with home values and decreasing home values decreasing rents, Port Charlotte, Cape, coral, in those areas as well. It's just It looks very different down there today. As far as you know, the job basis. I mean, there's a little bit more of a, you know, you know, an economy than what existed maybe 1015, years ago. But I don't know if you know the story of Port Charlotte. Is it some interesting history that you can if you want to spend some time, go on YouTube. There's some documentaries out there about, basically when that area was created. There's a two brothers that, essentially, you know, sold, subdivided and sold swampland and sold the dream to the northeast centers to come down and buy, you know, parcels of land down in Cape Coral, port, Charlotte and in that general area. And it took a lot of time for it develop over the years, but it's a beautiful area down there. But again, I think what happened to your point? A lot of folks during the covid era were wanting to come to Florida. We were fairly free down here. The sun was shining, you know, the Gulf of Mexico was warm, and that was a good value for a lot of folks. You know, the values were driving up there. Was home inventory down there. You got a good bang for your buck back at that point in time. But again, there's not, there's not as much as many amenities and supportive economy there. And then to me, there, like you might find in the Tampa area, or you might find Orlando, or even Ocala cow is a phenomenal market right now. And yeah, oh, Cal is, for those that don't you know you mentioned, you referenced the insurance there, which is, that's a great, that's a great price for that, that policy, you know, 700 bucks, basically, that is inland. For those that don't know the geography here in Florida, that is inland. So you are fairly protected from storms, you know, hurricanes and things of that nature, which crush us here on the on the Gulf Coast. But in any event, I just thought I'd share that there's some good, pretty cool documentaries out there in Port Charlotte, in the whole area down there, but a beautiful part of the country. But just Yeah, it's, it's suffering right now. There's, I think there's, I was looking the other day on Zillow. I just play around and check and see what waterfront home prices are going for. And down there, you can basically get a you can get a canal front home going out to the Gulf of Mexico for about $500,000 which was probably closer to 800,000 during, you know, the the boom era of 2021 2022 So historically, we used to buy properties down there. This is back in 2000 and 345, before the the GFC, we could buy those same properties for 150 and $200,000 waterfront home, waterfront homes, deep water canals going out to the Gulf of Mexico. But when it crashed, some of those homes were selling for $120,000 $100,000 so it's interesting to see how things have come kind of full circle multiple times, not just down there, but in all of Florida as well. Florida is always boom and bust. You know, I think they say that with you know, you could probably speak to that most of these coastal towns, whether it be in Florida, whether it be up the eastern seaboard, the coastal markets are definitely more of a roller coaster ride than the Midwestern markets, where you invest in would you? Would you agree with that?   Keith Weinhold  39:09   Yeah, I would. And yeah, you talk about Florida being a boom and bust, and what you said is certainly true in the shorter term. Back in the global financial crisis, we saw more price blood letting in Florida than we did in other states as well. But over the long term, the long arc, I'm bullish on Florida because of just the obvious constant in migration story. In fact, if you go back to decennial censuses, all the way back to the early 1800s every single decennial census, every 10 years, the population of Florida has rose, and it rises faster than the national average, almost all of those 10 year periods. So yeah, over the long term, I certainly like Florida, but Yeah, you sure can, you know, nitpick over the. Short term, but as little as five years from now. If you bought today, as little as five years from now, I could see someone saying, like, yeah, I bought back five years ago, because we're actually in a in a short term, overbuilt condition, and builders bought down my rate. For me, this could look savvy and this could look wise. So if you're looking for opportunity, new building Florida is definitely something to look into.   Kevin Bupp  40:22    I agree. No, absolutely. Like, the long term, you know, opportunity here in Florida, it's there, you know, it's interesting. We've got the we get these hurricanes every year. Last year was a pretty impactful year, at least here on the on the Gulf side, and the neighborhood I lived in, we got flooded. Luckily, our homes in newer builds built up. But, you know, 70% of the neighbor I lived in had 444, or five feet of seawater. And as did the, you know, the long stretch of the Gulf Coast here, and it was the first time this area has ever this immediate air right where we live, has ever had a it wasn't even a direct hit. It just happened to be a massive storm surge. But it was, you know, catastrophic as far as the damage that it did. And a lot of folks that we knew in our neighborhood here. Have lived here for 1020, 3040, or 50 years, and they had never had any floodwater whatsoever. And and there was two camps where they fell in either one camp where they didn't, they whether they had the money to rebuild or not, didn't matter. Like, mentally, they were never going to end up. They were never going to deal with that again. They were moving away, like they just didn't want to go through the heartache of that again. In the second camp, we're basically, I knew it was going to happen at some point in time. This is the kind of price to live, to pay, a live in paradise and and what ultimately occurred is, you know, you saw homes going up for sale, and in the initial chatter for those that that were impacted, is that, who's going to buy that? You know? You know, they're not going to get hardly anything for it. You know, it's just like, who's going to want to live here now that has been flooded. I said, Just wait. I'll say people have us as human beings, have short term memories. We do and and I can promise you, within a few months, those homes will be gobbled up, some will be knocked down, some will be rebuilt, but inevitably, the prices will come back incredibly strong, and you'll see very limited inventory, at least in desirable markets that are here on the water. And that's exactly that happened. Within six month period of time, prices are back up. You can't get your hands on a flooded property now, or one that had been flooded, right?   Keith Weinhold  42:12   I can believe it. And this is not the way that you want to have a waterfront property when the water inundates you and comes to you, that is not the way to buy waterfront property.   Kevin Bupp  42:23   Yeah, interesting, but, uh, no, Keith has been a fun conversation, my friend. So let's, let's talk about, you know, I like to you'll peek inside your brain if you were going to start all over again, from scratch, you know, you've been at this now, what? How long? Almost two decades. It's been, been quite   Keith Weinhold  42:38   Yes, yes, more than two decades. Is that what you're asking, how would I start, starting from today?   Kevin Bupp  42:47   Yeah, like, what would you do? Where would you focus, what asset type and any particular strategy outside of what you're doing today? You know, where would you focus your time?   Keith Weinhold  42:55   Actually, it is quite a coincidence. The way that I would start all over again in real estate is the way that I did start in real estate. It worked out phenomenally, in a way it makes sense, because if it hadn't worked out phenomenally, you never would have heard of me, and I wouldn't have become this real estate thought leader or whatever, because this is a way, an everyday person with virtually no real estate knowledge and very little money. Can start out, what I did is I made the first ever home of any kind, a four Plex building where I lived in one unit and rented out the other three. This is something very actionable for your for your audience as well, Kevin. Or if maybe you're a listener that has a an adult daughter or son and they want to get started in real estate with a bang without much money, is to buy a four Plex, just like I did. You can use an FHA loan, a three and a half percent down payment. You have to live in one of the units at least 12 months, and at last check, your minimum credit score only needs to be 580 now you will get a lower interest rate if you have a higher credit score. But those are the only three criteria you need. I mean, what a country talk about? The American Dream. You can use that FHA program with a single family home, duplex, triplex or fourplex, that's the formula. That's how I began. Actually ended up living there a little more than three years. But what that did for me was remarkable, and in fact, you know what it taught me? Kevin and every listener can benefit from this. It's paradoxical. A lot of times I say things that you would not expect to hear that make you go, wait what? Whoa, how can that be? Is what it taught me is that I don't want to focus on getting my money to work for me. You probably wouldn't expect to hear that. It's actually a middle class paradigm to say, well, I don't want to work for money. I also want to get my money to work for me. I'm telling. You that that's going to keep you middle class, or worse, that's going to keep you working until old age, and you won't have an outsized life and retirement and options. If you think that the best and highest use of your dollar is getting your money to work for you, it's not what's the paradigm shift if this four Plex building taught me the way I started out, which is still the way that I would start out today, and you probably heard this before, but I'm going to put a new twist on it. Is you want to ethically get other people's money to work for you, and we can be ethical. We can do good in the world. Provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. Never get called a slumlord that way. You can employ other people's money three ways at the same time, ethically by buying an income property with a loan, like we've been talking about in Florida, or with this fourplex building. How do you do it three ways at the same time, using the bank's money for the loan and leverage, which greatly amplifies your return beyond anything Compound Interest can do. The second of three ways you're ethically employing other people's money is you're using the tenants money to pay for the mortgage and some of the operating expenses on this fourplex. And then the third way you're simultaneously using other people's money is using the government's money for generous tax incentives at scale. So the lesson is that the best and highest use of your dollar is not getting just your money to work for you, it's other people's money, in this case, the banks, the tenants and the governments. That's what you can do. I mean, what an opportunity. A lot of people just don't even know about that FHA program.    Kevin Bupp  46:41   Yeah, I actually, I wasn't, I wasn't aware that it was that low of a down payment key. That's no idea. Three and a half percent, you said, a 550 credit score, believe me, 580 minimum credit.   Keith Weinhold  46:51   And you have to, thirdly, you have to owner occupy a unit for at least 12 months. And hey, I'm not saying it's always easy. You know, you got to think about that. Your neighbors are also your tenants. And I don't know how to fix stuff. I still don't. I'm a terrible handyman, but it's good to learn a little about about human relations. And you know, letting finding a general way to let the tenants know that you have a mortgage to pay every month. I mean, just that alone can can help them ensure timely rent payments. But, and this also doesn't mean every area, or every four Plex building is is good, but, yeah, that's the opportunity. That's how I started. I would totally do it again.   Kevin Bupp  47:27   Can you use that FHA program more than once? Or is that just the one time you know your first, first, first primary home purchase?   Keith Weinhold  47:34   It's generally you can only use one at a time. There are some exceptions, like if you and your job move, like, a certain mile radius away from where you got the first one, but, yeah, generally it's only going to be one at a time. A lot of people don't use it. Don't know about it. In fact, if you have VA benefits, Veterans Administration benefits, you can get a similar program, like I was talking about, but zero down payment, rather than three and a half with an FHA loan. It's a really good, amazingly good opportunity.    Kevin Bupp  48:05   That's incredible. That's incredible. Keith, my friend, I appreciate you coming back going. It's always good to catch up with you. Good to see that you're doing well.   Keith Weinhold  48:17   Oh yeah, a terrific chat there with Kevin. I hope that you like that really. At our core, real estate investors are not day trading. We are decade trading. Now I'm in western New York today, at the other end of the state, NYU compiled some terrific statistics that you want to hear about for nearly the past 100 years. It is the annualized returns of six major asset classes. This spans, the Great Depression, a number of recessions, World War Two, the New Deal, gold standard, abandonment, brendawoods, the Cold War, Civil Rights Movements, oil shocks, Volcker rate hikes, the.com boom and crash, the 911, attacks, the housing bubble, covid, 19, AI revolution and 16 presidencies, all those ups and downs and war and peace and economic booms and economic lows, and now there is going to be a mild tongue in cheek element here, because stats like this drive real estate investors crazy, but this is often how mainstream media portrays asset class comparisons. All right, the six asset classes are stocks, cash, bonds, real estate, gold, and then inflation, which isn't in an asset class, but it's a benchmark. All of these begin from the year 1930 so spanning almost 100 years. Let's take it from the lowest return to the high. Best return the lowest is inflation. And what do you think the CPI inflation rate is averaged over the last 100 years? Any guess at all? You might be surprised. It is 3.2% Yeah, even though the Fed's CPI inflation target has long been 2% it runs hot longer than most people believe. So therefore, today's inflation rate isn't high, it's just normal. The next highest return is cash at 3.3% How did NYU measure that the yield from three months T bills? Next up is bonds. They returned 4.3% that's the 10 year treasury average of the last 100 years. The next highest is real estate at 4.7% that uses the K Shiller Index. Now we're up to the second highest. It is gold at 5.6% and the highest is stocks at 10.3% using the s, p5, 100, and this was all laid out in a brilliant chart that also shows the returns by each decade for all of these asset classes. You'll remember that I shared the chart with you in our newsletter a few weeks ago. Now you are smarter and more informed than the layperson is, you know, but they see this chart and they think, Oh, well, that's it. I've got my answer. Real Estate's 4.7% appreciation loses out to gold's 5.6 and stocks 10.3 and then they go back to watching Love is blind. But of course, rental property owners like us know that we often make five times or more than this 4.7% when we consider all those other income streams and profit centers, leverage, rents, ROA and inflation, profiting on our debt, it's often 25 to 30% total. It's sort of like judging a Ferrari by only measuring its cupholders or something. Now, would stocks 10.3% get adjusted up as well? Yeah, probably a little, because the s and p5 100 currently averages a 1.2% dividend yield, so that might be added on the 4.7% return for real estate. That cites the popular Case Shiller Index. And the way that that index works is that it uses a repeat sales methodology. So what that means is that the Case Shiller measures the sales price of the same property over time. Therefore a property would have to sell at least twice in order to be measured by this popular and widely cited K Shiller Index. So then the 4.7% appreciation figure excludes new build homes, and new builds appreciate more than existing homes, but you do have more existing homes that sell the new build homes, so we can pretty safely assume that real estate's long term appreciation rate is higher, likely between five and 6% there it is. So yeah, making comparisons across asset classes like this is pretty tricky, because investment properties leverage and cash flow gets nullified. And when you make comparisons like this, it's a big reminder that even if you can't get much cash flow off a 20 or 25% down real estate payment, sheesh, most people put a 100% payment into stocks, gold or Bitcoin, and they don't expect any cash flow. And Bitcoin isn't part of what we're looking at for this century long view, because it did not exist until 2009 and also NYU had to use some alternative statistics. Sometimes the s, p5, 100 index only came into being in 1957 and the Case Shiller Index 1987    Keith Weinhold  54:02   next week here on the show, I expect to answer your listener questions from beginner to advanced. You've been writing in with some good ones for the production team here at GRE. That's our sound engineer, Vedran Jampa, who has edited every single GRE podcast episode since 2014 QC in show notes, Brenda Almendariz, video lead, brendawali strategy talamagal, video editor, seroza, KC and producer me, we'll run it back next week for you. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  54:36   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Speaker 2  55:04   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com  

In the first episode of this new series ‘Let's talk thEMes', Deutsche Bank's Emerging Markets research team discusses key themes facing EM in 2026 – combining top-down views on the asset class with a bottom up look at various EM geographies around the world. After delivering close to what has been among the best annual performance since GFC, we argue for why EM has more room to go.Featuring:Sameer Goel, Global Head of Emerging Markets and APAC ResearchChristian Wietoska, Head of CEEMEA & LatAm ResearchOliver Harvey, Head of CEEMEA & LatAm Currency ResearchDanelee Masia, Chief Economist, CEEMEAFrancisco Campos, Chief Economist, Latin AmericaPerry Kojodjojo, Senior Asian Macro Strategist

The Future of European Real Estate: Strategy, Capital, and Structural Change with Simon Wallace, Head of UK Real Estate & Global Co-Head of Research - DWS. This week, I sat down with Simon Wallace to explore how Europe's real estate landscape is shifting - and what that really means for investors, fund managers, and operators in the next cycle. Simon began his career as an economist before moving into real estate on the eve of the financial crisis. Since then, he has become one of the most influential strategists in the industry, shaping how research informs underwriting, capital allocation, and long-term thematic positioning across Europe. We unpack how his role evolved from research to strategy to leadership, what today's investors truly value, and why the coming decade could be defined by wellness, tech adoption, and a deeper rethink of how cities function. Key Topics Covered in This Episode ✅ From Economist to Strategist - How starting his career during the GFC accelerated his learning and shaped his investment philosophy ✅ Research as a Value Driver - Why research now has a formal voice in investment decisions and how strategy has become central to performance ✅ Building Modern Teams - The behavioural traits, breadth of experience, and challenge culture needed for next-generation research and strategy roles ✅ Structural Themes - How wellness, demographic shifts, and autonomous vehicles could reshape demand, cities, and opportunity sets ✅ Capital & Cycles - Why Europe may be quietly entering a recovery phase and how global capital is viewing the UK, Germany, and the living sectors And of course, I asked Simon the big question: Who are the People, what Property, and which Place would you invest in if you had £500 million to deploy? If you have thoughts or questions about this episode, drop them in the comments - I'd love to hear your take. The People Property Place Podcast is powered by Rockbourne, recruiting leadership talent for real estate funds, owners, investors, and developers.

Is wisdom really worth 4.52%?In this episode, Tim and Rory unpack the true value of advice.Russell Investments recently quantified the value financial advisers bring to New Zealand investors at 4.52%, Rory breaks down the “price of wisdom” and explores the real benefits that extend far beyond portfolio performance.(00:00:43) What's in the 4.52%: asset allocation, customised planning, and behavioural coaching (00:01:38) Why investors fixate on numbers; NZ's property bias and herd behaviour (00:02:24) When “safe” turns risky: property boom/bust parallels with '87 crash, dot‑com, GFC, COVID (00:03:25) Returns comparison: NZX50 (~6.9x) vs globally diversified (~17.5x) since the late '80s (00:04:06) Media narratives, bubbles and innovation; the human tendency to react to “now” (00:05:31) Holistic planning beyond returns: tax efficiency, structures, succession, risk insurance (00:06:13) Goals you can't price: flexibility, travel, family—why some outcomes are “priceless” (00:06:35) Estate planning basics: wills, guardianship, peace of mind (00:07:51) Behavioural coaching in action: “don't do this” moments; staying invested in KiwiSaver (00:10:27) Humans vs algorithms: reassurance and judgement you can't automateThe Adviser Talk is available on all popular streaming platforms, including Apple and Spotify.Rory O'Neill is a Financial Adviser as well as the Director and General Manager at Stewart Group, a Hawke's Bay and Wellington-based CEFEX-certified financial planning and advisory firm. Stewart Group provides personal fiduciary services, Wealth Management, Risk Insurance & KiwiSaver solutions. The information provided, or any opinions expressed in this show, are of a general nature only and should not be construed or relied on as a recommendation to invest in a financial product or class of financial products. You should seek financial advice specific to your circumstances from an Authorised Financial Adviser before making any financial decisions. A disclosure statement can be obtained free of charge by calling 0800 878 961 or visit our website, www.stewartgroup.co.nz Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Seeking Alpha's Head of Quant, Steve Cress on how crazy November was and why quant works (0:45). Micron and CommScope, 2 quant strong buys in AI sector (12:00). Worth buying near 52 week highs? (17:00). Seagate Technology, pick #3 (19:30). Benefits of employing this strategy (22:00). Quant performance during GFC (29:00).Show Notes:3 Best AI Stocks For The 2025 Santa RallyAlpha Picks3 Stocks To Buy From Alpha Picks/Pro Quant PortfolioEpisode TranscriptsFor full access to analyst ratings, stock and ETF quant scores, and dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions

Ambassador George Hodgson represents the British Embassy in Bogotá, Colombia which works to strengthen bilateral relations, promote trade and investment, and foster cultural and educational exchange between Great Britain and Colombia. This year marks the 200th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Finance Colombia's executive editor Loren Moss recently met with Ambassador Hodgson, the United Kingdom's envoy to Colombia, during a visit to Medellín one sunny November morning, where the city hosted a British pavilion celebrating cultural ties between the two countries. Ambassador Hodgson discussed the historic ties between the UK and Colombia, the evolving business landscape, and opportunities for Colombian students and companies in the UK.Read more at Finance Colombia: https://www.financecolombia.com/interview-british-ambassador-george-hodgson-seeks-to-strengthen-business-cultural-ties-between-uk-colombia/Subscribe to Finance Colombia for free: https://www.fcsubscribe.com/The place for bilingual talent! https://empleobilingue.com/More about Loren Moss: https://lorenmoss.com/writeContact us: https://unidodigital.media/contact-unido-digital-llc/For the British Embassy, go to: https://www.gov.uk/world/organisations/british-embassy-colombiaRead more at Finance Colombia: https://www.financecolombia.com/ Subscribe to Finance Colombia for free: https://www.fcsubscribe.com/ Read more at Cognitive Business News: https://cognitivebusiness.news/ The place for bilingual talent! https://empleobilingue.com/ More about Loren Moss: https://lorenmoss.com/write Contact us: https://unidodigital.media/contact-unido-digital-llc/

This blog is the best explanation of AI intelligence increase I've seen: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ ### Defining Market Bubbles - Traditional definition: 20%+ share price decline with economic slowdown/recession - Alternative perspective: hype/story not matching reality over time (dot-com example) - Duncan's view: share prices ahead of future expectations - Share prices predict future revenue/profit - Decline when reality falls short of predictions ### Historical Bubble Context - Recent cycles analyzed: - COVID (2020) - pandemic-led, quickly reversed with government intervention - GFC (2008) - housing bubble, financial crisis, deeper impact - Tech bubble (1999) - NASDAQ fell 80%, expectations vs reality mismatch - S&L crisis (1992) - mini financial crisis - Volcker era (1980s) - interest rates raised to break inflation ### Current AI Market Dynamics - OpenAI: fastest growing startup ever, $20B revenue run rate in 2 years - Anthropic: grew from $1B to $9B revenue run rate this year - Big tech revenue acceleration through AI-improved ad platform ROI - Key concern: if growth rates plateau, valuations become unsustainable ### Nvidia as Market Bellwether - Central position providing GPUs for data center buildout - Recent earnings beat analyst expectations but share price fell - Market expectations vs analyst expectations are different metrics - 80% of market money judged on 12-month performance vs long-term value creation ### AI Technology Scaling Laws - Intelligence capability doubling every 7 months for 6 years - Progress from 2-second tasks to 90-minute complex programming tasks - Cost per token declining 100x annually on frontier models - Current trajectory: potential for year-long human-equivalent tasks by 2028 ### Investment Scale and Infrastructure - $3 trillion committed to data center construction this year - Power becoming primary bottleneck (not chip supply) - 500-acre solar farms being built around data centers - 7-year backlog on gas turbines, solar+battery fastest deployment option ### Bubble vs Boom Scenarios - Bear case: scaling laws plateau, power constraints limit growth - Short-term revenue slowdown despite long-term potential - Circular investment dependencies create domino effect - Bull case: scaling laws continue, GDP growth accelerates to 5%+ - Current 100% GPU utilization indicates strong demand - Structural productivity gains justify investment levels ### Market Structure Risks - Foundation model layer: 4 roughly equal competitors (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, XAI) - No clear “winner takes all” dynamic emerging - Private company valuations hard to access for retail investors - Application layer: less concentrated, easier to build sustainable businesses - Chip layer: Nvidia dominance but Google TPUs showing competitive performance

In Episode 450 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Lawrence McDonald, the founder of The Bear Traps Report and the author of a recently published book about the risks and investment opportunities present in today's radically reshaped economy titled "How to Listen When Markets Speak." In today's conversation, Demetri and Lawrence discuss how social media and the gamification of investing have amplified behavioral biases and fueled the AI boom, as well as the growth of crypto and other "tertiary" assets. They then zoom out to examine how the macro environment has changed since the Covid 19 pandemic, and how the government's response to both the GFC and covid crisis have sent investors scrambling for new frameworks to help them understand government's role in the economy and how to position themselves and their client's portfolios for a radically new world—one that you will not learn about in financial text books or most macroeconomics courses. Kofinas and McDonald also explore the "dark side of passive investing," the extreme concentration risk present in a handful of AI-linked mega-caps, the risk to markets of more capricious government trade policies, and why Lawrence McDonald believes that one of the most underappreciated opportunity sets in AI lies not at the intersection of semiconductors and AI companies, but in the physical energy and delivery infrastructure needed to power them. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/17/2025

Cedric Chin says comparisons of our current AI *maybe-bubble* to the dot-com bubble and the 2008 GFC are limiting, Matthew Prince does a post-mortem on last week's Cloudflare outage, "hl" is a fast / powerful log viewer for humans, Enthusiast Guy's Continuum 93 is a fantasy computer emulator, and a list of things that aren't doing the thing.

Cedric Chin says comparisons of our current AI *maybe-bubble* to the dot-com bubble and the 2008 GFC are limiting, Matthew Prince does a post-mortem on last week's Cloudflare outage, "hl" is a fast / powerful log viewer for humans, Enthusiast Guy's Continuum 93 is a fantasy computer emulator, and a list of things that aren't doing the thing.

Cedric Chin says comparisons of our current AI *maybe-bubble* to the dot-com bubble and the 2008 GFC are limiting, Matthew Prince does a post-mortem on last week's Cloudflare outage, "hl" is a fast / powerful log viewer for humans, Enthusiast Guy's Continuum 93 is a fantasy computer emulator, and a list of things that aren't doing the thing.

Welcome back to the Alpha Exchange. In today's episode, I am joined by Megan Miller, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of the Options Solutions team at Allspring Global Investments. Her career spans the extremes of market volatility—from learning options trading during the GFC to now overseeing option-based strategies across a $600 billion platform. The conversation centers on how her team uses a GARCH-like modeling framework as part of a systematic approach to forecast future realized volatility. From this, signals emerge as to which options are over or underpriced.Megan explains how the democratization of options has reshaped implementation. While call overwriting may appear simple, doing it efficiently at scale requires advanced technology, rule-based construction, and close attention to liquidity across both U.S. and global underlyings. She outlines how index-option overlays can deliver income, preserve stock-specific alpha from the underlying equities, and manage beta more deliberately—an especially relevant point as today's markets continue to show wide dispersion between single-stock moves and index-level volatility.As client demand shifts with the market cycle, Megan highlights growing interest in income-oriented solutions, alongside renewed attention on hedging amid concerns around rates, AI-driven valuations, and geopolitical risk. She also underscores the rising importance of customization—whether for tax management, factor tilts, or exposure constraints.Megan closes with insights on mentorship, learning, and the value of embracing every stage of a career.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Megan Miller.

In a recent episode of the How I Met My Broker podcast, hosts Liam Garman and Hung Chuy sit down with Steve Maroun, director at Lanevick, to unpack the realities of stepping from investing into property development. Maroun shares how his journey began after his family lost everything but their home during the global financial crisis (GFC), which pushed him to abandon a law degree and learn property development from the ground up. By knocking on doors, taking on hands-on jobs like painting fences and renovating kitchens, and eventually buying the house next door as his first project, he effectively created his own "degree" in development. Throughout the episode, Maroun and Chuy stress that development is not for the faint-hearted, demanding resilience, adaptability, and the ability to tackle projects "one bite at a time". They explain that successful developers need to master four key pillars – finance, construction, sales, and town planning/design – to identify a site's highest and best use and navigate regulations. A key theme is the power of complementary partnerships, illustrated by Maroun's design and construction expertise, combining with Chuy's financial strategy to unlock value on a complex Western Sydney site. For aspiring developers, they emphasise education, understanding the end buyer and council objectives, building a strong expert team, embracing innovations such as prefab and 3D printing, and honestly assessing whether development suits one's life stage and risk appetite.

In this episode of the Kiss My Assets Podcast, Jamison Manwaring sits down with one of Arizona's most seasoned real estate operators: Joe Blackbourn, Founder and CEO of Everest Holdings. Joe shares his remarkable 30+ year career—from his early brokerage days at Grubb & Ellis to running acquisitions for a major family office, and ultimately building Everest into a highly respected investment firm. Joe walks through the pivotal moments that shaped the industry, including the RTC era, the GFC, and today's market cycle. He breaks down how deals get done, where opportunities emerge during distress, and what it really takes to survive (and thrive) across multiple downturns. Whether you're new to real estate, raising capital, navigating today's market challenges, or simply hungry for wisdom from someone who has seen it all, this episode is filled with insight, honesty, and practical takeaways from one of the greats.

David Lyon is Managing Director and Head of Capital Solutions at Neuberger Berman, where he oversees $10 billion of AUM and deploys $2-3 billion each year originating large scale financing solutions to premier sponsor-backed companies. Over three decades, David was the first arbitrage analyst at Och-Ziff in the mid 1990s, an associate at one of the then largest private equity firms in the late 1990s, and a fundamental, distressed debt investor at quant hedge fund DE Shaw through the GFC. His experiences offer a deep understanding of both sides of the balance sheet, which he brought together in hybrid capital solutions over the last decade. Our conversation traces his journey, lessons learned along the way, and perspectives on today's private markets. We then discuss the need for flexible capital solutions to address private equity liquidity challenges, competitive differentiation in the space, and the process for making it happen across sourcing, creating solutions, and managing risk. Along the way, David shares his refreshingly honest views on investor expectations, leveraged capital structures, good and bad investments, and incentives that help navigate an increasingly crowded marketplace. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

In this episode of Where's My Money, Reagan White is joined by three generations - Gen X, Y (Millennials), and Z - to compare how they think about cash, spending, and saving. Glen (Gen X) talks housing market stress and tight budgets. Ruzbeh (Gen Y) reflects on growing up through the GFC and the struggle to buy a home. Maia meanwhile (Gen Z) opens up about early-adult pressure and future investments. They dig into retirement, financial independence, and smart money choices, uncovering both generational differences and the same old money worries. Powered by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠enable.me⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Watch us on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Youtube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ /⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ /⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tik Tok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: @wheresmymoneynz ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Reagan White Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Where's My Money? ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linktree⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The global economic and geopolitical order has long been balanced by the United States. Today, however, that traditional stabilizing role is in flux. The drivers of market uncertainty, typically resulting from changes in monetary policy and the economy, are increasingly linked to US politics. Fiscal strain, tariffs, and hyper-partisanship are sources of unpredictability reverberating across markets worldwide. In this context, it was a pleasure to welcome Alex Kazan, Partner and Co-head of the Geopolitical Practice at the Brunswick Group, back to the Alpha Exchange.Our conversation explores just how we got to a point where the US is exporting risk to the rest of the world. Alex argues that this is not solely about Donald Trump but more the result of structural forces that have been building over time. The advent of social media and the technology that maximizes attention by algorithmically parsing individuals into one camp or the other and the twin shocks of the GFC and Pandemic have deepened partisanship and led to an erosion of institutional trust.On the international front, Alex points to the growing willingness of policymakers to weaponize economic tools like tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. This policy volatility, he argues, has redefined how multinational firms think about resilience, supply chains, and risk. In this new environment, economic strategy and foreign policy are fused, and companies must learn to negotiate not just with markets, but with Washington itself. Finally, we turn to the global stage, where U.S.–China relations remain a critical axis of uncertainty. Alex offers a nuanced view: while risks of escalation remain, the very ambition and unpredictability of U.S. policy may also open space for recalibration—a potential “grand bargain” that could stabilize the system.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Alex Kazan.

When workout specialist Norman Radow sat across from a developer who'd just lost a half-billion-dollar condo project in LA and asked what he'd change, the developer pounded the table, "I wouldn't change a thing. I did everything right!"   That's when Norman knew exactly why he was there.   Norman Radow is CEO of The RADCO Companies, an Atlanta-based opportunistic real estate firm that has acquired, invested in, and operated over 30,000 multifamily units across 15 markets and completed more than 100 deals totaling $3.3 billion over the past decade.   But his story begins earlier – as Lehman Brothers' off-balance-sheet workout specialist, where he earned the title "workout king" from The New York Times in 2009 after unwinding some of the most complex distressed assets in modern real estate history.   In this conversation, Norman shares battle-tested wisdom from three decades of buying buildings nobody else wanted – from the savings and loan crisis through the GFC to today's market paralysis.   Five questions answered: Why did Norman wait three years to get back into the distress game – and what finally triggered his return? What do ALL failed condo projects he studied have in common? (Hint: it's not what you think.) Why are banks giving free extensions to sponsors with "unclean hands" instead of bringing in fresh operators? Where is institutional capital flowing right now – and why non-institutional investors shouldn't compete there. What's the real story behind "extend and pretend" 2.0? If you're trying to make sense of today's multifamily market – the disconnect between debt and equity, why distressed deals aren't trading, and where smart money should position for the next 24-36 months – this delivers hard-earned pattern recognition from someone who's seen this movie before.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Cole Watson, CFO of Hoosier Hills Credit Union (IN), joins Vin, Zach, and DCG colleague Mike Mitchell for a terrific episode 10 of season 4. The guys dig into Cole's background as he transitioned into the banking world post-GFC, the importance of having a “curious mind,”  initiating strategic actions at ALCO, and how FIs should embrace culture shifts as deposit gathering becomes more and more important.For more insights and ideas, visit DCG at DarlingConsulting.com or follow us on LinkedIn.

In this episode of Building Doors, host Lauren Karan sits down with Scott Clements, Managing Director of Inertia Engineering, whose story is one of resilience, innovation, and leadership in an ever-evolving construction industry. Scott shares how he built his company from the ground up, navigated economic downturns, and even doubled in size during COVID, proving that adaptability is the ultimate advantage. He and Lauren dig into how AI and design automation are transforming civil engineering, cutting project timelines in half while freeing teams to focus on creativity and problem-solving.They also explore the realities of leadership, how to protect culture as you grow, hire the right people, and stay ahead in a rapidly evolving industry. From tackling labor shortages to reimagining the government's role in driving productivity, this episode is packed with fresh insights and inspiration for leaders ready to embrace change and keep building, no matter what challenges lie ahead.What You'll Learn in This Episode:Resilience and Leadership:How Scott's business grew through global crises like the GFC and COVIDWhy resilience and adaptability are key traits in engineering leadershipThe mindset needed to lead through uncertainty and growthAI and the Future of Engineering:How AI and automation are transforming design and project deliveryWhy communication and creativity will be the most valuable future skillsThe importance of learning to “interrogate” AI rather than fear itHow new technology partnerships are revolutionizing civil engineeringCulture and People:The secrets to maintaining company culture through rapid growthWhy hiring great people (not “mini-mes”) accelerates business successBuilding leadership teams that value diversity, autonomy, and trustIndustry Insights and Government's Role:How Australia's construction industry can boost productivity and innovationWhy government and industry collaboration is vital for addressing skills shortagesThe role of immigration and training in solving the labor crisisPersonal Lessons and Balance:Scott's belief that energy, fitness, and family are key to sustainable leadershipThe legacy he hopes to leave for his team and the engineering industryKey Quotes from Scott Clements“In the new age of AI, the things that will matter most are communication and creativity.”“Culture doesn't have to fade as you grow; it just has to evolve.”“If we don't become more productive, we'll all keep paying more for everything we build.”“AI won't replace engineers, but engineers who use AI will replace those who don't.”About Our GuestScott Clements is the Managing Director of Inertia Engineering, a leading civil engineering consultancy known for embracing innovation and sustainability. With over 20 years of experience, Scott has built a reputation as a forward-thinking leader who integrates technology, creativity, and culture to deliver impactful engineering solutions. From pioneering AI partnerships to mentoring future leaders, Scott is shaping the next generation of engineering excellence.About Your Host:Lauren Karan, founder of Karan & Co. and host of Building Doors, is dedicated to helping professionals unlock their potential. Through insightful interviews and real-life stories, Lauren empowers listeners to create opportunities and thrive in their careers.How You Can Support the Podcast:Subscribe and leave a 5-star rating on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.Share this episode with anyone interested in sustainability and leadership.Connect with Scott on LinkedIn to learn more about his journey.Stay Connected:Follow Lauren and the Building Doors podcast on LinkedIn.Subscribe to the Building Doors newsletter for exclusive content.Let's Connect:Want to be a guest or share feedback? Email us at reachout@buildingdoors.com.au.Thank you for listening! It's time to stop waiting and start building.

Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we've entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it's changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal.Main topics covered• The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime• Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal• Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic• The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today• Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis”• How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again• Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further• Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend• Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world• AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation• What could ultimately break the debasement regimeTimestamps00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook16:42 The labor market's “malignant stasis” and what it signals21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,00038:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations45:08 Gold's breakout and how to manage the position50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era54:32 AI's potential to reshape productivity and demographics57:13 What could end the debasement regime59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals

In this episode, Craig McGrouther sits down with Casey Stratton, who shares his journey from corporate layoffs during the GFC to building a real estate portfolio using the 1% rule – buying duplexes for $100K that rented for $1K/month. Now focused on Eastern Washington's Tri-Cities (one of the top 20 fastest-growing MSAs), Casey discusses how they're navigating today's 0.75% reality by pursuing true off-market deals and pivoting to development. After securing a 33-unit property from an 86-year-old seller below market rents, they're launching their first ground-up development of 140 units. Casey reveals how Washington's new rent control (7% + CPI cap) changes the value-add playbook, requiring 2+ years just to reach market rents. His key insight: sub-50 unit deals remain inefficient enough for arbitrage opportunities while institutional capital chases larger assets.Learn more about LSCRE:www.lscre.com 

Prof. L. Randall Wray joined Class Unity to talk about the 2007-9 GFC and politics. Prof. Wray is a professor of Economics at Bard College and Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute. Previously, he was a professor at the University of Missouri–Kansas City in Kansas City. You can find Prof. Wray's papers on the […]

In this episode of Grow a Small Business, host Troy Trewin interviews Paige Wiese, founder of Tree Ring Digital, shares her journey from freelancing after the GFC to building a 16-person digital marketing team. She reveals how the company doubled during COVID, overcame recent dips, and stayed resilient through challenges. Paige explains the importance of prioritization, transparency, and smart financial management in scaling a business. She highlights why being industry-agnostic has given Tree Ring Digital a competitive edge. Her story is a blend of perseverance, adaptability, and strategic growth every small business owner can learn from. Why would you wait any longer to start living the lifestyle you signed up for? Balance your health, wealth, relationships and business growth. And focus your time and energy and make the most of this year. Let's get into it by clicking here. Troy delves into our guest's startup journey, their perception of success, industry reconsideration, and the pivotal stress point during business expansion. They discuss the joys of small business growth, vital entrepreneurial habits, and strategies for team building, encompassing wins, blunders, and invaluable advice. And a snapshot of the final five Grow A Small Business Questions: What do you think is the hardest thing in growing a small business? Paige Wiese said the hardest thing in growing a small business is having the confidence and resilience to stick with it through the ups and downs. She emphasized that challenges and setbacks are inevitable, but staying committed and pushing forward makes all the difference. What's your favorite business book that has helped you the most? Paige Wiese shared that one of her favorite business books is “Do Less”, which helped her understand the importance of not saying yes to everything and focusing on what truly matters by getting unnecessary tasks off her plate. Are there any great podcasts or online learning resources you'd recommend to help grow a small business? Paige Wiese emphasizes learning through mentors, self-teaching, and real conversations over traditional study. She's been featured on Mission Matters (digital asset control), Building the Business (slowing down to speed up growth), and Grow My Accounting Practice (scaling with marketing). Paige highlights the value of extracting small, actionable insights from books, podcasts, and networking. She also recommends shows like Masters of Scale for growth strategies and Manager Tools for leadership and team development. What tool or resource would you recommend to grow a small business? Paige Wiese recommends using practical tools and systems to support business growth, starting with digital asset management to secure domains, websites, and brand accounts. She highlights the value of QuickBooks for financial tracking and project management tools like Asana or Trello to streamline workflows. To grow smarter, she suggests leveraging Google Analytics and Search Console for data-driven decisions, while also emphasizing the importance of continuous learning, mentorship, and checklists to stay resilient and adaptable. What advice would you give yourself on day one of starting out in business? Paige Wiese said the advice she would give herself on day one of starting out is: “You can do it. It's going to come with some challenges, but you've got this.” Book a 20-minute Growth Chat with Troy Trewin to see if you qualify for our upcoming course. Don't miss out on this opportunity to take your small business to new heights! Enjoyed the podcast? Please leave a review on iTunes or your preferred platform. Your feedback helps more small business owners discover our podcast and embark on their business growth journey.     Quotable quotes from our special Grow A Small Business podcast guest: Prioritization is the key to delivering real value, not just checking off tasks – Paige Wiese Know your numbers—without metrics, you can't measure true growth – Paige Wiese Success is producing quality work while building long-term relationships – Paige Wiese  

In this solo episode, Jesse unpacks what it really means to lead a dental practice during a time of massive technological upheaval. With AI evolving at a breakneck pace, and the future of dentistry changing before our eyes, Jesse explores how to position yourself in the age of disruption - not as the disrupted, but as the disruptor.He reflects on key moments of disruption in the past, from the GFC to COVID, and draws powerful parallels with today's AI revolution. Through candid stories, strategic insights, and practical takeaways, Jesse challenges practice owners to stop burying their heads in the sand and start leading with clarity, purpose, and adaptability.In this episode:[00:01] What “disruption” really means[01:37] AI's rapid acceleration and the collapse of Moore's Law[03:15] Why burying your head in the sand is the most dangerous choice[06:10] Jesse's near-death experience and a business metaphor[09:08] Preparing your practice for AI instead of fearing it[09:58] How AI can enhance diagnosis and lift associate productivity[12:37] The coming shift from VAs to AI systems[14:43] The rise of AI “slop” in marketing and how to avoid it[15:45] Driving growth through the “Triad of Brands”[17:54] Short-term and long-term AI-powered patient nurturing.Resources and Links:CoTreat AIMorgan Housel website - The Psychology of Money & Same As Ever booksJoin the free Savvy Dentist Facebook GroupFollow Dr Jesse Green on LinkedInVisit Savvy Dentist websiteMentioned in this episode:Transformational Training for Dental Practice TeamsIf you want to grow your practice, you need a high-performing team - but training takes time, effort, and resources you often don't have. That's why we created the Savvy Dentist Team Training Bundle - a 12-month program packed with five powerful courses, including our Practice Manager Masterclass, Front Desk All Stars, Hygiene & Therapy Heroes, Treatment Coordinator Training, and the Million Dollar Dentist course. Each course is delivered live via Zoom, and you'll also get access to past recordings, so you can onboard new team members anytime without starting from scratch. Want to scale your practice and build a winning team? Click on the link and join the waitlist. Team Training Bundle Sept 25

Paulding Co. ext. agent Mary Carol Sheffield with tips for planting trees, trees vs turf, and GFC with a Leaf Watch update!

How Did Foresight — and a Lot of Grit — Turn One Client into a Thriving Business?Can tenacity turn setbacks like the 2008 GFC into career breakthroughs?This week on Retail Retold, Chris Ressa sits down with Bethany Babcock, founder of Foresite Commercial Real Estate — and a mom of three who has built a thriving firm through sheer tenacity.Bethany's journey is anything but conventional. Born in the U.S. but raised in Chile, she came to Texas at 18 with no financial support and worked her way through college while getting her start in real estate. When the 2008 financial crisis hit, she doubled down instead of walking away — jumping into commission-only investment sales and eventually founding her own firm in 2014 with a single client.Since then, Bethany has grown Foresite into a respected full-service company with offices in San Antonio, Austin, and Houston. Along the way she created the CRE Launch Program, an internship pipeline that's bringing fresh talent into the industry. Her story blends personal grit with professional innovation, offering valuable lessons for anyone navigating today's retail real estate market.From raising bilingual kids to raising capital, Bethany shows what it takes to persevere — and why “trust but verify” is more than just a business mantra.What you'll hear: How a mom of three turned setbacks into a thriving CRE businessWhy 2008's downturn became a springboard, not a stumbling blockHow mentorship and grit fueled Bethany's career shift into retailThe inside story of launching Foresite with one client and growing from thereThe birth of the CRE Launch Program and its role in shaping new talentMarket insights: San Antonio and Austin leasing strength, local buyers vs. international investorsA high-stakes deal that fell apart — and the hard lesson learnedChapters00:00 Introduction to Bethany Babcock02:43 Bethany's Journey into Commercial Real Estate06:05 Career Development and Starting Foresite08:52 Growth and Challenges in Business11:39 Current Market Insights and Trends14:53 Local vs. International Investors17:55 Lessons from a Challenging Deal21:40 The CRE Launch Program and Closing Thoughts

You've heard of a double-dip recession. But did you know property downturns in NZ often follow the same “W-shaped” pattern? In this episode, Ed and Andrew explain how the latest housing slump has played out just like the 90s, the GFC, and 2021-24.You'll learn:Why recent property price data shows we've likely just hit the second dipThe historical patterns that prove New Zealand downturns often run in W-shapesThe key signs to watch to know when the recovery is realThis isn't about scare tactics, it's about learning from history so you can make smarter investment calls today.Don't forget to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠create your free Opes+ account here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.For more from Opes Partners:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for the weekly Private Property newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Today I'm I sitting down with Scott Arnoldy, Founder & CEO of Triten RE Partners, to explore his journey from the frothy real estate markets of the mid-2000s to building Triten into a multi-vertical investment and development firm with ~$2B in investment volume. We talk about the lessons he learned at Goldman and Stockbridge during the GFC, the early days of striking out on his own, and how he's evolved from being a dealmaker to focusing on building a scalable business. Scott shares his perspective on industrial outdoor storage, multifamily opportunities, and why leadership and team building have become his greatest priorities. We discuss: How the leverage-driven deals of the mid-2000s shaped Scott's risk mindset The transition from opportunistic projects to building a long-term business with structure and focus The evolution of Triton's investment approach, from value-add office to iOS and multifamily Why storytelling and clarity matter as much as numbers when raising capital Perspectives on the current real estate cycle, market uncertainty, and where compelling opportunities exist today Links: Triten RE Partners - https://www.tritenre.com/ Scott on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/scottarnoldy/ Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:04:35) - Scott's early career and real estate insights (00:13:04) - Navigating the 2008 financial crisis (00:19:27) - Starting a real estate firm: Challenges and lessons (00:30:41) - Building a successful real estate business (00:37:23) - Sheds and beds (00:38:53) - The role of investment committees (00:41:15) - Leveraging technology in real estate (00:46:24) - The importance of storytelling in deals (00:48:56) - The rise of industrial outdoor storage (iOS) (00:58:21) - Current real estate market analysis (01:01:33) - Looking ahead & future predictions Support our Sponsors Collateral Partners: https://collateral.com/fort Ramp: ⁠https://ramp.com/fort⁠ Chris on Social Media: Chris on X: https://x.com/fortworthchris Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thefortpodcast LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/45gIkFd   Watch POWERS on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3oynxNX Visit our website: https://www.powerspod.com/ Leave a review on Apple: https://bit.ly/45crFD0 Leave a review on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3Krl9jO  POWERS is produced by https://www.johnnypodcasts.com/

In this episode, Craig McGrouther sits down with Marcin Drozdz of M1 Capital, who shares his 20-year journey from buying his first property at 19 to raising $300M for Ken McElroy during the 2008 crisis. Marcin reveals how he bought medical amd dental plazas for 20-30 cents on the dollar during the GFC, targeting insurance-backed tenants that remained recession-proof. He breaks down the "3 P's" of fund raising: People, Process, then Property – inverting the typical syndication approach. Recently closing a Houston deal at $77K/door with discretionary capital, Marcin explains why having "money in the bank" creates massive negotiating leverage. Looking ahead, he warns of potential credit tightening that could force a pure equity environment, fundamentally changing how deals get done. His contrarian take: we may be heading into stagflation where assets collapse in real value while appearing to rise on paper.Learn more about LSCRE:www.lscre.com 

When someone speaks with a deep of understanding of the banking and finance systems, is widely respected, and then expresses a strong but debatable view, about a developing asset class, we think it's important to hear that voice and to challenge and distil its key messages.   So in this episode we welcome back a former guest who appeared on the MMP in March 2023 during the banking storm, during with Silicon Valley Bank and then Credit Suisse. His conclusion was unequivocally that this was no repeat of the 2008 GFC, as has been proven.  In addressing his recent report from Oliver Wyman, titled “private credit is reshaping wealth portfolios”, we wanted to challenge him on several issues, including; Is it that innocuous? Is this a trend which will serve big private asset firms at the expense of individuals? How about bad times and souring loans? Does the loss of liquidity matter? Are we swapping risks from the regulated banking sector to the unregulated world of the giant private market firms?   And so Huw and I face off in a discussion on the risks and opportunities that are the hallmarks of this fast-growing slice of the investing world.  ​​The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, World Gold Council and LSEG.   Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube  

In Episode 436 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with economist, policy adviser, and investor Sony Kapoor about why developed world demographics, debt, and political sclerosis will crush forward returns for investors who fail to rebalance their portfolios for the new investment paradigm. Kapoor and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation unpacking the thesis explored by Sony in two of his papers: “Winter Is Coming” and “The Case for a Great Rebalancing” in which he argues that global capital has been increasingly misallocated due to factors such as the growth of passive indexation, maladaptive benchmarking, and an excessive focus on short-term performance at the expense of long-term returns. They explore how demographic tailwinds in advanced economies have flipped into headwinds; whether AI driven productivity gains can realistically offset the drag of declining birth rates; why accommodative post GFC monetary and fiscal policies undermined political stability in developed countries; and what recent stresses—including dollar weakness, Treasury market liquidity scares, and an increased reliance on short-term debt financing—suggest about looming financial repression, fiscal dominance, and a rotation out of U.S. capital markets. The second hour is devoted to a conversation about investor incentives, market structure, investment opportunities in emerging markets, and how to construct a more diversified portfolio suitable for the world that is coming into being. Demetri and Sony discuss why political and currency risks may now be lower for a diversified emerging markets basket than for a similarly diversified portfolio of developed market assets. They discuss what a reweighting toward emerging markets could look like; why India stands out given its digital public rails and domestic-demand engine; how places like Indonesia, Brazil, and Nigeria fit into a rebalancing; and how to think about geopolitics, US policy risk, and portfolio construction in this new paradigm. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/18/2025

Growing up in Germany without a financial background, Julian Komar became fascinated by stocks as a teenager. He moved past complex German trading products to concentrate on U.S. equities. Specializing in momentum and growth stocks on the daily timeframe, he blends fundamentals, technicals, and story analysis to uncover opportunities that put him in the best position for high-potential setups and riding powerful trends. As a disciplined breakout trader, he prioritizes risk control, market trends, and intuition gained through decades of experience. About Julian Komar Julian is a trader, mentor, and entrepreneur. With over 20 years of stock trading experience, he trades growth and momentum stocks using a systematic strategy, holding winners for weeks to months and cutting losers within days — a style that perfectly matches his personality. Julian's passion lies in uncovering innovative companies with the potential to grow sales rapidly and achieve significant long-term success. He devotes 95% of his energy to research, searching for the next potential “super stock.” Trading Disclaimer Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice. Links + Resources Follow Julian on X:  https://x.com/BlogJulianKomar Julian's Website: https://julian-komar.com/contact/ Time Stamps Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads. 00:00 Introduction and background 10:20 Fundamentals and technicals 17:30 Sister stocks 28:30 Trading the GFC 34:02 Worst drawdowns 33:00 The setup for the trade 43:00 Position sizing 52:30 Trading performance 1:08:35 How to reach Julian 1:09:00 Tessa Chats with Julian Sponsors of Chat With Traders Podcast: Plus500:  Try futures trading with Plus500 >> Start with a FREE demo or claim a bonus up to $200 with an open account 

What does it take to scale from a 38-unit syndication to 33,000 units across six states—and still never lose investor capital? Jeff Gleiberman of MG Properties breaks it down. In this episode, Jeff shares the core principles that helped his family-run firm grow into one of the top 50 apartment owners in the U.S. You'll hear how they've weathered multiple market cycles, why they're buying newer assets right now, and how disciplined underwriting, fixed-rate debt, and vertical integration have become their unfair advantages. Whether you're raising capital, comparing asset classes, or trying to read the market—this episode is required listening.Key TakeawaysFrom Family Syndication to Institutional ScaleStarted with a single 38-unit deal and scaled to 33,000 units over 30+ years.Built trust and momentum through word of mouth and disciplined execution.Added institutional capital partners while staying grounded in syndication fundamentals.Grew from a home office to over 1,000 employees with fully integrated operations.How MG Navigates Market CyclesSurvived and thrived through the S&L crisis, dot-com bust, GFC, COVID, and today's rate shock.Adapted strategy for each cycle—moving from value-add to core-plus when needed.Buys below replacement cost today to minimize downside and maximize long-term upside.Maintains focus on fixed-rate, long-term debt and low leverage to protect investor capital.Why Vertical Integration is a Competitive AdvantageIn-house property management, asset management, and construction management from day one.Enables real-time decision-making, tighter expense control, and stronger performance in down markets.Allowed the firm to pivot quickly during COVID and deliver consistent returns.How to Attract Serious Capital (Without Chasing High IRRs)Always invests 10–20% of their own capital into each deal—creating strong alignment.Focuses on risk-adjusted returns, not marketing inflated projections.Educates investors on cycles, deal structure, and realistic expectations to build long-term trust.Current Strategy: Core-Plus Over Value-AddAcquiring newer, well-located properties at 30–40% discounts to replacement cost.Cash flow is lower today—but risk is also lower, and long-term upside is strong.Value-add deals don't pencil right now due to rent compression and renovation risk—but they will again.The Discipline Behind $1.8B in Acquisitions (In a Down Market)Maintains a consistent buy box and underwriting discipline—despite competition and volatility.Relies on lender relationships, low-cost insurance, and scale advantages to stay competitive.Sticks to one asset class—multifamily—and executes at a high level, deal after deal.Connect with Jeffmgproperties.com Connect with MichaelFacebookInstagramYouTubeTikTokResourcesTheFreedomPodcast.com Access the #1 FREE Apartment Investing Course (Apartments 101)

Today's show features one of the biggest industry legends you may never have heard before. My guest is Tim Sullivan, who recently retired from overseeing Yale University's private market portfolios for 39 years. He joined the Yale Investments Office upon graduation from Yale College in 1986, just one year after David Swensen took the helm. He worked alongside David to build and manage the most successful institutional private equity and venture capital programs in history. Tim lived through the 1987 crash, the early years allocating to privates when no one else did, the dot.com boom and bust, the institutional adoption of alternatives after David published his book in 2000, the GFC, the ZIRP aftermath that created a bigger boom until the hiccup in 2021. We weave in and out of that history, as Tim shares lessons from how Yale managed its portfolios along the way. Tim carries a quiet conviction and sharp analytical mind developed from the front line of the greatest success in institutional investing for decades, and he weighs in on the increasing challenges of repeating that past success going forward.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership

Keith discusses the evolution of the real estate market over the past five years, highlighting a 43% price surge from March 2020 to June 2022 due to low mortgage rates, remote work, and government stimulus. By 2024, single-family home prices stabilized, but apartment values dropped by 30%.  Mortgage rates have remained around 6-7.5% for 20 months, with national home prices rising 2% in the past year.  We introduce two listener guests: Josh Fang, a 28-year-old investor who bought five properties using his income from a mortgage loan officer job, and Nate O'Neil, an experienced investor who leveraged his corporate job to fund his real estate portfolio.  Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/560 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, over the past five years, the real estate market has changed forever. So what are you supposed to do now? Then I talked to two GRE listener guests back to back. Here's some relatable stories this week on get rich education.    Mid south home buyers. I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis, and have globally attractive cash flows, an A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis. Get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.   Speaker 1  1:48   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You   Keith Weinhold  1:58   Keith, welcome to GRE from Augusta Maine to Augusta Georgia and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education if you got trapped in a cave back in 2020, and then you came above ground into the sunlight of 2025 and wondered what happened to the real estate investment market over the last five years. Here's the answer, and what it means to you, even if you weren't trapped in a cave, and I sure hope you didn't have to fight off a bat colony either. During the pandemic housing boom of 2020, to 2022 housing demand soared, in fact, from March of 2020, to June of 2022, prices surged a staggering 43% and rents ballooned too. And that was all amidst a few things, ultra low mortgage rates, a remote work boom and government stimulus. And for many, this unlocked Americans work from anywhere arbitrage. High earners were able to keep their income in, say, New York City or LA, pack up their laptop and head for state income tax free havens like Tampa or Nashville, and builders could not keep up. See housing supply, stock is not as elastic as demand. It's like steering a cruise ship. It doesn't turn out a dime. Inventory was drained, and you know, we had a full on housing supply crash that dipped to its Nadir in February of 2022 but just after that, all types of interest rates spiked later in 2022 to help stifle rising inflation, and what that did is that that quickly quelled homeowner affordability. Return to Office mandates began to gain momentum. National housing demand pulled back a near 180 was quickly underway. Sales volume tanked, and that put a lot of people in the industry out of business, realtors, mortgage loan officers, even furniture companies out of business by 2024 prices in the single family to fourplex space stabilized just with a slow growth rate, but apartment values lost as much as 30% from 2022 to 24 due to devastating interest rate resets under shorter term loans, and meanwhile, the income required to buy a modest starter home rose from 49k in 2020 to 101k last year. That's pretty NAR and the term forever renter became both a meme and a. Reality, and since construction, efforts to build have been uneven, apartment supply actually exceeds demand in a lot of markets, and over in the one to four unit space by adding inventory, there's now 30% more available year over year, but it remains under supplied nationally, especially like I've discussed in the Northeast and Midwest, where building has been meager to completely non existent. That's why it can still feel impossible to find a house in much of Ohio or New Jersey, but you can rent an apartment in Austin, Texas faster than you can get a Wendy's drive through order. Mortgage rates have now stayed in this same range of six to seven and a half for 20 months, and national home prices are up just about 2% in the past year. Now, when Trump began his second term in January of 2025 markets got giddy with business friendly optimism, but this Trump bump that reversed fast when he slapped half the planet with tariffs housing demand cooled again, because no one buys a house when they feel like their job might vanish, alright? So amidst all of that. How do you adjust your strategy with what's changed over the past five years? Well, real estate still pays five ways, and since you're not betting it all on price growth like you would be with most other asset classes, this way, you've always got a side to play with. Affordability down now, rental demand is heating up. With more inventory on the market for you to purchase, there are more motivated sellers, especially those shiny build to rent homes. You do still have to deal with mortgage rates that are higher than they were four or five years ago. Refinance on the rate dips if there's low inflation rates fall if there's high inflation, well, then your debt arose faster. So this is what I mean about you having the ability to play both sides today, and this is big, the number of renter households are at a record high, and they're rising. Landlords are giving fewer concessions. Increasingly, they hold the cards in the single family rental space and annual rent growth is expected to heat up from its current zero to 3% Well, what is next? Short term housing value should stay stable, but not sore, and don't count on a big mortgage rate drop at all for the rest of the year long term, expect more inflation in strong demographic demand. Those things are almost certainties, and that's the good part for real estate investors. So really the overall market report card today, let's grade it out in a report card, sellers are doing just okay. Buyers are strained. First time home buyers are in the worst, the roughest shape. I mean, they grade out at an F single family rental landlords are in good shape because people that want to buy a single family home can't, so they rent apartment landlords, they are strained, and renters are holding steady. They're doing pretty well until steeper rent increases kick in. So really, the bottom line here is that it's been a more tumultuous five years than usual. Housing demand lapse supply and now it's coming closer back into balance today, home prices are stable, the amount of buyers are waning, and the hordes of renters are growing. And where are we today? Well, earlier this month, our president called our Fed chair a numbskull.    Donald Trump  8:56   If we cut our interest by one point for years, we save 300 billion. If we cut it by two points, we save because it's pretty equivalent we're going to save, we're going to spend 600 billion a year. 600 billion because of one numb skull that sits here. I don't see enough reason to cut the rates now.   Keith Weinhold  9:21   oh dear leaving you with a little knee slapper on the five year summary there. Look poor and middle class people feel like everything is expensive. That's because they pay for everything with money they've exchanged their time for. That means they feel like they're paying for everything with their life, because they are and that's exactly why money feels like a scarce resource. Instead, real estate investors pay for things according to what our assets are producing for us and what other people's money is producing for us. And that's why we can pay for what we want, and money feels like an abundant resource, not a scarce one. That's what today's two listener guests discovered somewhere along their path, fueled by this show. Now sometimes I answer your listener questions here on the show when you write into us at get rich education.com/contact, other times, I bring listener guests right here onto the show. That's what we're doing today. Today's both happen to be based in California. The first guest is a young investor, and the second guest more experienced. These were just recorded. Understand they aren't professional speakers. And also, if you bear with a few early audio difficulties with our first guest, you're going to be rewarded with some relatable takeaways. Our first listener guest, Josh Fang, started listening to the get rich education podcast as a college student in 2016 or 17. He first heard episode 84 that's when Robert Kiyosaki made his first appearance here. That episode was called the rich don't work for money. Then he went back to Episode One and listened to them all, 560 episodes. Now let's meet him.   This week's GRE listener guest is a 28 year old real estate investor based out of Irvine, California. That's SoCal, and he has already reached what he calls semi work, optional status, fantastic. He's been a GRE listener since 2017 that was at age 20 when he was a junior in college. The GRE podcast inspired him to become a mortgage loan officer, and he's become a top performer at doing that, originating loans after graduating college. He used the money from that mortgage loan officer job starting at age 22 to buy five income properties, two through mid south home buyers and three elsewhere. By the way. Again, he's 28 now. GRE quite literally shaped his adult life, and having enough passive income to fully retire is pretty much his only goal. Now he's got passion for talking financial freedom through smart borrowing, strategic thinking and action over perfection. Oh, I love that. Hey, welcome to GRE. Josh Fang, thank you for having me. I really appreciate it here on the show, I talk about borrowing and lending a good bit, because if you're gonna make something of yourself, you need to leverage the efforts of others. So tell us about how you got your first job in the mortgage industry and how it set the foundation for your investing journey. Josh,   Josh Fang  12:31   when I graduated, it was really rough. I had a business degree which didn't really open up too many doors. At that time, I couldn't find a job for six months, I was just applying everywhere that I could. Now keep in mind this entire time, I'm looking for a job. I'm listening to your podcast, and you know, how can I the income and the money to purchase some rental properties for some passive income? And one company responded to my resume for a mortgage company. So I was able to get an interview, and I actually got the job by quoting, you know, mortgage guidelines that I learned from your podcast. Your Podcast, such as, for an FHA loan, you need three and a half percent down. For a conventional you need 20% down, just the most basic of the most basic mortgage guidelines. And actually was able to land a job, and in the very beginning, they start you off pretty much. I mean, as a telemarketer, it's pretty rough, long hours, you work weekends, I was making $17.48 at the time per hour, and with that basic income, the 17.48 an hour, I actually was able to buy my first rental property without even the two years work history. And the way I did that was by using my college degree as work history, because there is actually a guideline to where, if you have degree that is in the same field as where you work, it does actually be counting work history. And it was really funny at the time, I was living with my parents, another document that I needed to go through underwriting. I needed a letter from my dad, a signed letter from my dad saying I didn't pay rent because I was living at home. And off that 17.48, an hour, I was able to buy my first rental property. And from mid south home buyers, everyone there was so great. They were so helpful in helping me through the loan process, through selecting a property, and I was able to close. And the time that I bought my first rental I was only 22 years old.   Keith Weinhold  14:20   This is remarkable on a few levels, with just those few lines, about three and a half percent down FHA or 20% down conventional that sounded compelling enough for someone to want to give you an opportunity and then off that modest starting wage, how that really helped you accumulate to buy income property and yeah, when you're buying in those investor advantage places, those prices are low, but that's still pretty remarkable that you were able to do that. So talk to us some more about that, buying your first rental property at age 22 surely younger than most people about that process and the mindset and really that leap of faith that it takes Josh because most people are not doing this.   Josh Fang  15:00   Yeah, absolutely. And I think I had a really big leg up in terms of mindset, because I was starting to listen to your podcast when I was so young, when you're young and you're growing up and you're a young adult in college, you know, you hear from your teachers, your parents, your friends, older people, and they say, oh, invest in the stock market. Buy a primary residence to live in. And the big thing that I learned is I don't live in the same world as the world that my parents grew up in, and I can't invest the same as well. Great point there's, I live in Southern California. The medium house price of where I live in, in the city of Irvine, is $2 million yeah, that's ridiculous. I would never, ever be able to purchase a primary residence out here, and buying stocks are at all times highs. I mean, that's arguable, but I think stocks are quite overfit. So investing there didn't make too much sense. And what you always talked about in terms of building a second flow of income, having that be passive to where I don't need to work regularly, is what really motivated me to move towards that. And in terms of making the first step, I think the most important thing by far, is just setting a goal, saying at least for myself, it was, hey, I want to own a property. I want to provide safe, affordable housing to a tenant, and I want to be able to make money off of that, to where I don't need to do something physically for it every single day. And then after that, it just about taking the steps. The first things first is I reached out to some of the house providers. In that case, it was mid south home buyers, gave them a call, spoke to them, say, Hey, can I please be put on your list? Perfect. Then it was just continuing the work, doing more research, continue listening to your podcast, learn tidbits here and there, lots of Googling, lots of Googling, looking up terms that I didn't understand when I read through the analysis of the property. Hey, what does this mean? What does that mean, Googling it, learning one step at a time. And then when it came time and I was actually receiving properties that I could buy, it was about getting the mortgage, and it was about, hey, let's just move one step at a time. Okay, today I need to get these documents, and the next step, I need to get these documents. And before you knew it, I was signing with a notary closing on my first property,    Keith Weinhold  17:10   the autodidactic approach, meaning the self taught approach, with some assistance from my show. But yeah, oftentimes listening to the show can be the stimulus to make you want to learn more, probably, because I talk about the why for real estate, and if you don't know your why, you won't care about how So Josh, are you doing something that some people do in high cost areas, like you live in in SoCal? Are you renting your own place? And then you provide rental housing to others outside your own area. In investor advantage places is that your setup?   Josh Fang  17:44   100% where I live in Irvine, it is extremely, extremely low crime. Everything's a planned unit development. It is beautiful out here. There's trees, there's lots of different foods from different cultures. I absolutely love living here. The only issue is is it's ridiculously expensive. I live in a very nice luxury apartment complex, and I pay of extremely high rent that normal people probably wouldn't be able to pay. But rather than coming out of my pocket, I use the cash flow for my rentals to pay for my rent over here. So it's kind of like I'm building equity, even though I'm just renting, and I get to live the life that I want to live, where I want to live it, while still being able to invest the proper way. In my opinion   Keith Weinhold  18:26   that's beautifully said and well thought out. And part of doing that, Josh is this borrowing money, which I think to lay people, is scary, and for someone in their 20s to borrow money, that could really bring a good bit of trepidation, because that goes against the grain of what so many people do. But of course, we talk around here about how borrowing money like you have for your rental properties in other states outside California really is not something to fear. So can you tell us more about how you approach that mindset?    Josh Fang  18:57   Absolutely, and it's always hilarious when someone asks you if you if you have any debt, and you tell them $500,000 when you're 23,24 years old, the biggest thing about borrowing money is now, again, there's different types of debt. So I'm not saying, hey, go buy some expensive car that you're going to be backwards on in a few months. Don't get a bunch of credit card debts at 24% interest rates. I'm talking about debt from a with a collateral attached to it, such as a mortgage. The way I like to think about borrowing money is borrowing like a bank, because your money has value. Whenever I have money in the actual bank, it doesn't feel like it, but I'm actually lending money to the bank. They're taking the money that I have deposited and lending it out to other people at higher rate than what they're paying you back. That's how they're actually making the money. I'm thinking like a bank. And of course, that's exactly how it is with borrowing money for rental properties. The interest rate that I have to pay on my mortgage is so much lower than how much income I'm receiving by actually renting it out and providing housing for someone. And then, of course. Tax deductions.   Keith Weinhold  20:00   Sure you're creating arbitrage there when it comes to paying off or aggressively paying down a property. I mean, some protection financially is surely good, but one has to realize that after some point, when you protect you cannot produce another way to say it is if you use your dollar to pay down, then you cannot use your dollar to multiply.   Josh Fang  20:25   I agree with that 100% I couldn't have said it any better.   Keith Weinhold  20:28   You really took action something that a lot of people don't do. I don't think you did right away. You listened to some episodes for quite a while, but you did overcome analysis paralysis at some point. So talk to us about more with that mindset of how you took the first step, even when you're still perhaps a little unsure.   Josh Fang  20:46   I think you say it best, and I know I'm literally taking the words out of your mouth, because, again, I'm a long time listener, but do the right thing before you do things right. Yes, rings so, so, so true. You're never going to be perfect. There's never going to be the perfect property. There's never going to be the perfect deal. Eventually you just have to do it. And again, all it really is is saying, Hey, here's what I want to do, and what are the steps that have to take to get there? If the first actual step, rather than just listening to the podcast or getting more information, if the first step is, hey, I want to get a pre approval. Go ahead and get it done. Reach out to a loan officer, get your pre approval, get the documents needed, get the right information that you need, and then start writing offers on properties, or contacting Keith and his team, their GRE mentoring team, and ask for property values. And once you find one, and again, you're never going to find the perfect property. Once you finally say, hey, this fits enough. Jump on it. You should be excited. I mean, again, once you're doing the right thing, you can learn to do things right. And slowly, kind of say, Hey, I made a small error there. Hey, I made a small error there. But at the end of the day, you move forward and you're ahead of where you started. I think that's the most important thing.   Keith Weinhold  21:59   Yeah. I think uncertainty stops. Some people, maybe even uncertainty with the larger economy. Or maybe people just look for excuses for inactivity. Sometimes there will always be some uncertainty out there. And what you do when you make an offer on a real asset is you just made some certainty in your life. Yeah, just talk to us more about the process of kind of you started with your first property and then growing that portfolio. And what did you learn between the first one in that second, third, fourth and fifth one, where you are now   Speaker 2  22:32   after buying my first one, when I received that first rent check, after that first rental property, my net cash flow after management expenses, putting a little, you know, VIMTIM, keeping an extra 10% away to just keep in the bank in case something came up. I wish cash flowing at the time. $231 doesn't sound like a crazy amount now, but as a 22 year old kid and saying, Hey, I got this $231 without lifting a finger, felt amazing. I had this feeling, I'm out in Southern California. We had this burger chain called in and out. My double double burger and fries combo was about $6 at the time. And I said, no matter how bad things get, no matter how bad things get, that $231 I can buy an in and out meal every single day, as long as I own that property. I just had such an overwhelming feeling of, when can I get the next one? I immediately, immediately reached out to MidSouth like, hey, put me on the list as soon as I have money. You know what? Keith, it got fun. It got fun every time I got an email saying, Hey, here's another property. Like, wow, if I can make this deal work, that's an extra couple $100 I can have at the end of the month every single day. And now I live in my own apartment complex, in a unit in an apartment complex, but at the time, I rented out a room in a house, in a condo, just a single room, and by the time I bought my second rental property, all of my cash flow from my two rentals actually covered the full amount of my monthly rent living out outside of my parents place. And that just felt so so so amazing, because it was like I almost had no overhead. So all the money that I was making for my job was completely disposable that I could use to purchase other rental properties. And that was just such an amazing, freeing feeling to know that no matter what happened, I obviously as long as there's no vacancies or any kind of crazy issues there, that I would still have that flow of income coming in pretty much after buying my first one, all I wanted to do was buy more. Now, a big issue that happened was 2020 and 2021 there was very little inventory, so really tough and slim pickings, and I would have bought a lot more if I could find more deals. And now, thinking back, I should have, if anything, I wish I bought more.   Keith Weinhold  24:50   Gosh, I just love that Josh, that seminal $231cash flow from that first property, and how you rationalize that that could buy you in and out. Meal every single day, all month. If that's what you wanted to do with that first one, that's terrific. And yes, markets change. There's more inventory available now than there was in 2020, and 2021, mortgage rates are surely higher. You don't have as much competition. You might even get a concession or two when you buy since it's a more balanced market today than it was about four years ago, for sure. So every market cycle is different. When you realize you're paid five ways at the same time, there's always one side to play or the other. There's always so many variables that you get to deal with there. Have you had any certain issues with property management, or do you have any mindset about using a property manager remotely. I assume you're using remote management for these turnkey type properties. Is that right?   100% I've actually never physically seen any of my properties. Yeah, what you say is the best, essentially, your team that manages your property is the most important by far. Right? Right now, here's the thing, issues are going to come up. Regardless of what happens. There's always going to be something that breaks. Eventually, there's always going to be vacancy. Eventually there can be natural disasters, something's always going to come up. And the thing is, you can't get angry about the things that you can't control. If there is a vacancy that you know you vetted the tenant properly, and there was nothing to do if there is a natural disaster or if something does break down in your property that you couldn't have expected coming or that wasn't your fault. The biggest thing is, you can't get angry with it. You just have to know that you can deal with it properly, and having a professional team on the other side saying, Hey, we're going to handle it. This is an issue. Here's how much it's going to cost. We got a couple of you know quotes. Please approve one when you get a chance, and knowing that the other side will be able to execute on that and to do it for you, and that you don't have to fly out wherever you own your property and do it yourself physically, or have to call around and find a contractor to do it, it's a huge peace of mind, and having a property manager and a team that you can trust just makes it work. If I couldn't get a property manager that I trusted, I wouldn't own the property in the first place. It's just too much work.   I am the same way. I also have not seen the majority of the properties I own. I've never seen them physically, in person, yeah, having a professional property manager, they provide a buffer, and they help keep this investment unemotional for you. And Mistakes happen when people get overly emotional about their properties. Some people are reluctant to hire a property manager, Josh because they don't want to pay the eight to 10% property management fee, which can actually be a little bit more than that effectively with leasing fees. But people feel that way, as oftentimes they're confining and limiting their search to their own local market, which probably isn't investor advantage. So they don't have enough of a cushion in their pro forma, in their profit and loss statement to pay for a property manager. But when you buy in those investor advantage places where you get that high ratio of rent income to purchase price. There you have the allowance to pay for the manager too,    Speaker 2  28:06   100% and luckily, because I have my foundation of real estate from listen to your podcast, I never even look at a deal without factoring in the fact that there will be management. I have never, ever even possibly considered self managing. It just makes no sense. I'd rather, let's just say it's 10% and a month's worth of lease, which is a little bit on the higher end in terms of management fees, right? Even if I were to do I would factor that in 100% of the time if the deal doesn't work, if it doesn't cash flow, if it doesn't, you know, appreciate a certain amount, if it isn't in my ballpark, with the management fees taken out, that's not even the deal that I'm looking at. It's just too expensive.   Keith Weinhold  28:47   Yeah, that's a great way to think about it, keep it unemotional and make it all relatively passive. I self managed for the first six or seven years of my real estate investing career, but that's because I was only investing in my own local market, and I was thinking small, and I didn't learn about finding the best investor advantaged places nationwide. Well, just as we wind down here, is there any last thing that you'd like to let the audience know or to tell us, I know before we recorded, you had talked about how really, your Daydream is more realistic than you think, and the motivation behind getting started. What do you want to leave with? Josh?   Speaker 2  29:22   You say it after every podcast. Don't quit your Daydream. I've been hearing that for eight years now at this point, and it really is, I don't have a day job. I pretty much only work when I feel like it. The majority of what I've lived off of is the income properties that I've bought and the lifestyle that I've crafted. It's so freeing. No one's telling you what to do. You don't have to go somewhere every day. You can spend time doing what you want. When I first quit my day job, and, you know, went into this semi retirement, I'm not gonna lie, I play video games eight hours a day for months, or maybe a month or two. I don't know if that's the most productive. It. But the fact that I could do that, I could obsess on crazy hobbies for a while was crazy. But one of the most important things to me of being able to reach this point in my life is I'm starting to get a little bit older. I am able to spend time with my family. I am able to spend time with my grandparents, and, you know, just like on a Tuesday or like on a Wednesday, just when nothing's really going on. Just being able to stop by and say hi to my family and spend time with them is something that I'm so blessed to be able to have, and not many people can do. And then the last thing I'd like to say on that is just, there's very small things in the world that a lot of people don't get a notice. Because I feel like everyone's in a rush all the time, and a lot of people are. You know, if you're working 40 hours a week, nine to five, you know, nine to six, there's not much time. But the other day, I was taking a small hike, and I saw a group of lizards. I thought they were cool, so I looked at the lizards. I spent maybe 15 minutes watching the lizards. I wasn't in a rush, you know, I could just enjoy the small things in life, and that's one of the best things in the world to just have that sense of not being in a rush. And I feel like investing in real estate and having that passive income and having that level of freedom. To me, that's what my Daydream is. There's nothing better to me.   Keith Weinhold  31:14   the simple pleasures about not having your time so confined that you could enjoy looking at lizards for 15 minutes. I love the small stuff like that. And does this mean Josh? I mean with five rental properties that you only need to work part time rather than full time, because usually five properties don't allow someone to completely leave the workforce.   Josh Fang  31:32   No, not at all. I definitely do things on the side. I still do loans for friends and family. I do some other stuff on the side, but it's more of that my basic needs are met for the most part.   Keith Weinhold  31:43   That's terrific. You've got more latitude to live and having a life of options Trumps having a life of obligations 100% Well, hey, it's been great hearing your story. Josh, loved having you here on the show you're listening to get rich education. We got to know listener. Guest, Josh Fang more, and we come back with another listener guest, profile, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.    The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group  NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    You know what's crazy your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   Jim Rickards  33:49   this is Arthur Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  34:05   our next listener guest has an uncanny amount of similarities with me, like me, he was a geography major in college. He had humble beginnings in upstate New York, not far from where I grew up, in upstate Pennsylvania. He's a huge believer in real estate pays five ways, and he loves world travel. His first job out of college was, in fact, traveling the world, playing basketball against the Harlem Globetrotters. We sure don't have that pro basketball part in common. He owns dozens of units across seven states today. He's listened to GRE for six or seven years, and he was a corporate guy living in California who thought the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad was fiction, until he experienced the rapid appreciation of he and his wife's first primary residence. And after that appreciation, he knew he had to acquire more real estate. Prices were too high in California relative to rent, so he. Went out of state, and he had just one property for five years to learn that was pretty similar to me as well. And then he saw tremendous opportunity after the GFC hit in 2008 and that really put him on a path through experience the five ways real estate pays over time, and he became convinced that there's not a better risk adjusted business model that's easily accessible to the average person. Hey, welcome to GRE Nate O'Neil   Nate O'Neil  35:25   Keith, it's great to be here. I've been, as you mentioned, a long time. Listener. Really appreciate the content that you put out, and excited to be on the show   Keith Weinhold  35:32   and you're no longer playing like zero defense basketball against the Harlem Globetrotters. You work in the solar industry now. I know that you sell to single family rental REITs. That's really interesting. And one thing that real estate investing lets people do is think differently about their w2 jobs. So tell us about how that manifests with you. Nate,   Nate O'Neil  35:56   growing up, you know, the first 25 years of my life, 24 years or so, my identity was wrapped up as an athlete, and, you know, something I could really get excited about eventually, that had to come to an end, and started working in the corporate world. So did that for a little while, and got going. It really, you know, didn't resonate with me that much. But, you know, I had a wife, and I had some kids on the way, so had to keep grinding it out. And, you know, as I did that, I discovered real estate, and what really helped me with that was I saw the corporate world began to be a vehicle to grow my real estate portfolio, right? Instead of it being the desk jockey in the cubicle, my corporate job was okay, this is the way for me to raise capital and get the best loans to build a real estate portfolio so, and it's ironic, because as that kind of evolved, I gained, you know, more appreciation for the corporate job, and it didn't, it wasn't so burdensome. And I know there's probably a lot of people out there right that feel that way about their job, but you can probably do a mindset shift and say, hey, you know, this can serve me in other ways and it not be such a grind.   Keith Weinhold  37:03   That's a great way to think about it. While you have that job, it sure is an asset in helping you qualify for loans. Right before I quit my job, I made sure I qualified for as many loans as I could, because I sure would have had a hard time getting them immediately after leaving my job, before I built income or build up passively from something else. It's funny, when you're in the corporate world, you're in this context of normalcy. So many people that you know are working. You're around your coworkers all day. They're working, and if it's something you're not passionate about, yeah, you still don't question it, because it takes on that context for normalcy. But once you leave your job, it feels bizarre that anyone would ever show up and spend five of their seven days and most of the waking hours of those days doing something that they're not passionate about. Now maybe you are passionate about what you do. That's where the mindset that I think through there, but that's a good way to help a person feel a little bit better showing up at their job, even if it is a soul sucking job. Nate. So talk to us about this more with this sort of power of purpose that you had, and when you are working your day job, you probably do some living below your means in the short term, but a lot of people just do that decade after decade and grind it out. So how do you think about that with the mindset in this sort of capital formation stage, in order to acquire more property while you're working?   Nate O'Neil  38:29   Like I said, it was an opportunity that the job became an opportunity to fuel the real estate business, which, as you mentioned, I saw that opportunity in 2009 right when prices were low, when interest rates were low, when there was a bunch of nice new foreclosures on the market, I saw the it created a sense of urgency in me, right? So I was like, All right, let's go to work, because the work's going to drive that capital, and the capital is going to allow us to acquire more and more of this real estate, which is, again, something I was passionate about, because we had this just that one rental for that five year period, I saw the power of what it can do over the long term. And when you have that purpose and that clarity, then all the minor stuff that you can get wrapped around and can kind of slow you down, really doesn't matter you have that big vision and that big goal that you're going after that really kind of drives you    Keith Weinhold  39:20   now, before we got started today, I learned that you have a few ways of thinking about how real estate investors can have their cake and eat it too, more tactically. Here tell us about that. And of course, what is the point of having cake if you can't eat it?    Nate O'Neil  39:33   Yeah, for sure, worked in some different industries and some different companies, and seen a lot of different business models. I've never found anything where you can have kind of both sides of the cookie here, or hack cake eat it too. You can depreciate an appreciating asset. The government allows you to depreciate homes, right? Which gives you a nice tax benefit. The money that I make that my corporate job is taxed at a much higher rate than my real estate income, but yet the asset actually appreciates. Dollars. So you depreciate an appreciating asset. I think people underestimate the power of the 30 year mortgage, right? You can lock in an interest rate today for 30 years, and if interest rates go up, you did a great job. You locked in a great, great rate. If interest rates go down, you're a champion. If you just refinance, when you do a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, the lender is committing to you for three decades, but you don't have to commit to them. So again, have your cake and eat it, too. And then you know the whole return on amortization that you talk about, Keith, yeah, when you get to borrow money that you don't have to pay back, in essence, right? The resident that's in your home is paying that money back. So people think about they hate getting bills in the mail. I actually love getting my mortgage statements in the mail. Every month I go through this little ritual, I look at it, and my process is, wow, how much was that principle paid down? Right? I didn't pay it back, right? The rent payment paid it back. So what other scenario can you borrow money that, quote, unquote, someone else is paying back on your behalf,   Keith Weinhold  41:02   that ROA, that return on amortization, also known as principal pay down. Where, yes, you get that statement every month, and you get to see how much a stranger paid down for your property. It's basically a stranger every month is faithfully funding an illiquid savings account for you,   Speaker 3  41:22   it's just incredible. And then the final way I kind of think about having your cake and eating it too, is, is this HELOC strategy. So over time, as you build equity in your portfolio, you can take out a home equity line of credit, right? And the beauty of a line of credit is you open it up and you don't have to make any payments if you don't use the money. But when there's an opportunity, you can pound for that opportunity. And this is what we did in 2020 and 2021 we acquired some new construction fourplexes with HELOCs. And when in using the HELOC strategy, you're able to use every single dollar to keep the balance low. And what it does is it creates this virtuous cycle of increasing cash flow, because it's a line of credit, and you pay off against that, that line of credit, if you need the money back for an emergency, or if a better opportunity comes up, then you basically just pull more off that line of credit. But if you don't have that opportunity of that emergency, then your money is fully working to keep that payment low, which increases your cash flow, and again, it creates that virtuous cycle of of increasing cash flow, which you can use to pay down the HELOC. Even more   Keith Weinhold  42:29   I see no downsides to getting a HELOC to getting a line of credit against your existing primary residence or your rental properties, whatever they are. It's like this flexible credit card where you're drawing on it with your property as collateral, and it's at lower interest rates than a credit card is going to be. And you also have interest only flexibility, meaning even if you draw against it, and you do have a balance and you need to make a payment, therefore you can pay as little as only the interest portion if you want to. In fact, when I bought my first fourplex in order to fund my second fourplex, I took a HELOC second mortgage off of that first one. Love the HELOC really can't think of any downsides with at least having it there. And then it's up to you as to whether you want to draw against it or not. Absolutely talk to us more about you're another out of state investor based in high cost California. There. It sounds unusual to lay people, but here we are as successful investors owning these properties, typically that we have never seen out of state. Are you in that category as well? And talk to us more about the out of state investing experience   Speaker 3  43:40   I've only ever seen one of the units that I own, the rental units that I own, and I actually think it's a huge advantage, because if you're seeing them driving by them all the time, there's probably little nits that you could point out, and, you know, you get some kind of emotional attachment to them. The way I look at it, it's two things. Number one, it's the spreadsheet behind it, right? What are the numbers behind it? What is my mortgage payment? Is there Hoa, taxes, insurance, all that stuff, and what is my rent? And obviously, I'm all about cash flow, so that rent payment has to cover all the expenses with a little extra. The second piece of it behind the spreadsheet is the person managing it right? And I've been very fortunate over my years of investing to find some really quality property managers who I know I can trust. So, you know, absolutely, I mean, developed an ability to hire the right people to manage the property, and they handle just about everything, and I just need to be there, available for them if they have questions for me or decisions I need to make. Fully trust them. I have only ever seen one of the units that I own, and you know, never really planned to go out and visit them.   Keith Weinhold  44:44   You do like to travel, but just not necessarily to your 200k turnkey single family home in the Midwest, in the south, not where you want to stay. There are some advantages and some disadvantages of owning rental properties, say, four blocks from your home. One of the distinct disadvantages is, yeah, you might get that emotional attachment to it. You might get bogged down in inconsequential things. You might drive by and see that the hedge needs a trim. How much of a problem is that really?   Nate O'Neil  45:14   Exactly it, as long as the spreadsheet behind it is spitting out the right numbers, and you have someone that you can trust that can handle anything that that's major, or any tenant issues that's all that's really relevant.   Keith Weinhold  45:26   Has our investment coaching helped inform you at all? Helped you find properties or give you inside information or access to deals or other support?    Nate O'Neil  45:35   Yeah, I have had a conversation with Naresh. One of your investment counselors doesn't, haven't necessarily acted upon that. But, you know, I can say over the, you know, six to seven years that I've been listening to your podcast just understanding kind of the macroeconomic guests that you bring on in the markets that we believe, you know, are good for investing. Like that, information has been extremely valuable to me over the years.    Keith Weinhold  45:57   Our coaches are really deal scouts here in today's market. For example, things are just so much different than they were during the 2008 GFC years. There are always deals in every cycle. You typically just need to shift and find out where those opportunities are. Are there any specific niches or opportunities that you're exploiting today in this particular cycle? Nate   Nate O'Neil  46:19   yeah. So it's really interesting, and I've been spoiled, right in terms of the times when I did a lot of my acquisition back in 2008 we knew it was good, but looking back, you realize just how good it was at that time, and frankly, now is very challenging, right? I mean, affordability is the worst that's been in 40 years. Yeah, right. So you have to be really creative. You know, one of the things that I did recently was I learned how to do a loan acquisition. So assuming a loan can be very helpful, right where you're not dealing with today's interest rates, you can get yesterday's interest rates on a property. So that's been one thing, and one thing I continue to look at. I also believe that I've been focused on single family in some four plexes. I'm looking at smaller multifamily because what I've learned is there's opportunity when there's debt disruption, right? The great financial crisis happened because there were atrocious lending standards leading up to that time, right? So that opened up a window of opportunity. That opportunity is closed. Acquired some fourplexes in 20 and 21 when interest rates were unbelievably low, right? Basically, the Fed funds rate was basically zero. That kind of unique debt situation allowed me to acquire there and now, right? Since 2022 interest rates spiked so quickly, the way I think about it is the debt disruption period, there's probably some acquisitions that happened with, you know, three to five year short term loans that are going to be coming due, and those acquisition are facing payments that are going to double. So there could be some motivated sellers, not in the single family right, where you have 30 year fixed rate or 15 year fixed rate, but in those small, multi family loans, where they have those short term variable rate debts. So that's kind of how I'm thinking right now.   Keith Weinhold  48:05   That's perceptive. It's something I brought up on the show a month or more ago where apartment buildings have got to bottom out at some point those being sensitive to those shorter term interest rates. Well, Nate, this has really been helpful. You've given our audience quite a few things to think about. Is there any last thing that you'd like the audience to know?   Speaker 3  48:25    We talked a little bit about purpose, like that's very important. There is no better way, in my opinion, to build wealth for the average person, no more predictable way risk adjusted, to build wealth for the average person. You know, for the listeners out there. It's great that you're consuming this content, and if you can find a purpose behind it, then it'll help. And the other thing is, get clarity, right? There's a lot of different things you can do within real estate investing, but get clarity on what works for you. And the way to do that, frankly, is just kind of sit and think, I think, you know, especially in today's day and age, there's so many stimulus coming at us, from social media to everything that there's a risk of not being able to get clear. One of the big things that helped me during that, that period of, you know, 2009 to 2015 when we started to scale, was I was very clear about what we wanted. I had a buy box that was, you know, homes built this millennium B grade neighborhoods, cash flowed $300 or more with no more than 25% down in markets with population growth, job growth and favorable rent to price ratios. And when I was able to communicate with the agents and property managers, I was very clear on what we wanted to do. They had clarity on what they needed to do to help us scale so purpose and clarity.   Keith Weinhold  49:41   That's great guidance a specific Buy Box. Yes, focus is harder to find, and it's really important today. It's amazing. Nate, how much work I get done when my phone is one room away, over on the charger. It's incredible how that works. Well, it's been good to get your insight, and it's been good to talk to a guy. That might know the capital of Argentina much like I know a fellow geography guy and real estate investor. Yeah. I really want to thank you for sharing your insight with the audience today.    Nate O'Neil  50:11   Nate, I hope it's valuable for you in the audience.   Keith Weinhold  50:20   Oh yeah, good, relatable material this week, the first guest, Josh, also talked about how he took out a low interest rate car loan. So he held onto those funds rather than handing them over to an auto dealer, stayed liquid and used it for income property, creating a yield for himself that beat the car loan interest rate pretty smart. And before you do that, you do want to be sure that you've got enough liquidity to serve as debt. And then Nate the second one, the more experienced investor, reminding us that deals are not as good as they were coming off the global financial crisis. And he's right, but I still don't know of a better risk adjusted return today, like me, they both use professional property management. I mean, you do have the option of self managing your property remotely that you get from GRE marketplace. But of all the things in the world that you can learn about, even all the things in real estate investing that you can learn about, is self managing really what you want to spend your finite resource of time learning about. Even if you've got good tenants, you're bringing more intrusion and interruption into your life. Property managers don't just protect your asset, they protect your time. Big thanks to GRE listeners, Josh Fang and Nate O'Neil today until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 4  51:50   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  52:14   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com.