Podcasts about gfc

In August 2001, Australia's first ETFs were launched. Today, more than two million Australians own them. So what can investors learn from 25 years of ETF investing?On this episode of the Friends With Money podcast, Money's Tom Watson is joined by Jonathan Shead, head of investments, Australia, at State Street Investment Management, to discuss the evolution of ETFs and the investing behaviours that matter most.00:00 Introduction01:11 Biggest lesson from 25 years of ETFs03:07 How investors should approach ETFs as investments04:35 The evolution of diversification over time06:20 Can you own too many ETFs?07:37 Which ETFs have been most popular with investors?09:35 Lessons from the GFC and COVID downturns11:37 ETF liquidity during market crises13:47 The future: Active ETFs and tokenisation15:36 Conclusion#friendswithmoney #tomwatson #jonathanshead #etfs #investingPodcastLinks:Listen on Apple PodcastsListen on SpotifyMoney WebsiteYouTube Podcast PlaylistEmail Us: podcast@moneymag.com.auGet stories like this in our newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pKl3ai

What if reality isn't as fixed as you think? In this episode of Mastering Your World Through Frequencies®, Fiona and I explore the surprisingly blurry line between imagination and reality—and what that means for your ability to create change in your life. Backed by science and grounded in frequency work, this conversation will make you rethink everything you assume about what's real, what's possible, and who you think you are. And of course I've created a special GFC just for this episode—all about releasing your attachment to who you think you are. Why? Because the limitations of what you think is your identity keep you emanating the same resonance—which means you keep creating the same problems, the same people, the same level of scarcity, over and over again. And unless you're stubbornly holding onto the way things are now, and want NOTHING to change, this GFC will help shift things up in resonance. If you would like an opportunity to ask me questions in real-time, join me when I go live on YouTube. Subscribe to the Spherical Luminosity YouTube channel and click the reminder bell to be notified when I am live: bit.ly/SL-YTSubscribe For the latest news about upcoming events and to be notified when sessions with me are released, subscribe to our newsletter: bit.ly/SphericalLuminositynewsletter

Checkout the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ Dan Nathan welcomes Vincent Daniel, partner at Seawolf Capital and one of the investors who called the 2008 housing crash, for a deep dive into where markets stand heading into year-end. They break down new Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's "immaculate economy" problem, why passive fund flows are quietly the most powerful force in the market, and the hedge-fund blowup that briefly rattled the S&P. From there, Dan and Vincent get into the real meat of the episode: the new wave of GPU-backed financing deals from Nvidia, Apollo, and Blackstone, why Vincent thinks the AI trade is less a Ponzi scheme and more a "debt-infield CapEx initiative," and where the credit risk is really hiding. They also debate capital availability, return on invested capital, which software names survive the AI shakeout, and whether this all ends up looking more like the dot-com bust or the GFC. Plus: an unprompted case for why Vincent should be the next GM of the Mets. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami dig into the biggest story in markets: Nvidia's roundtable with Wall Street's top financiers — Jensen Huang, David Solomon, Jon Gray, and Stephen Schwarzman — and the multi-hundred-billion-dollar backstop deal getting compared to a modern-day CDO. Dan lays out why he thinks this AI CapEx build could make the dot-com bust and the GFC look tame, walks through Nvidia's doubling credit default swaps, and answers a listener question on exactly what would signal the bubble has popped. Plus: the cautionary tale of The Trade Desk's collapse from $140 to $14, why valuations are only richer once before in history (the dot-com peak), and a preview of what to watch in Cisco's earnings after the close today. Show Notes A short history of valuing stocks (FT) Wall Street just endorsed Jensen Huang's ‘big concept' for AI. What now? (CNBC) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Markets around the world are hitting record highs and reporting season is delivering plenty for investors to unpack. Bryce & Ren break down results from some unassuming Aussie companies, ask whether the day or frequency of your dollar cost averaging actually matters, and explain how proposed capital gains tax changes could make record-keeping more complicated. Plus, Michael Burry is betting against the AI trade again. Should investors listen to the man who famously called the GFC?00:00 Markets are hitting record highs03:58 Australian reporting season: numbers that caught our eye05:30 Nick Scali, ResMed and REA Group14:04 Does the day you dollar cost average actually matter?18:16 How often should you dollar cost average?22:21 How will the CGT changes affect investors?28:44 Michael Burry's latest bets against AI31:18 Why calling crashes is easier than making moneyStocks & ETFs Mentioned: Pinnacle Investment Management Group (ASX: PNI), CAR Group (ASX: CAR), Light & Wonder (ASX: LNW), James Hardie Industries (ASX: JHX), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR), Nick Scali (ASX: NCK), ResMed (ASX: RMD), REA Group (ASX: REA), CSL (ASX: CSL), Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT), PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX), Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI), Zoetis (NYSE: ZTS), Fiserv (NYSE: FI), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC)Grab your FinFest tickets today: https://www.finfest.live/———Want to get involved in the podcast? Record a voice note or send us a messageAnd come and join the conversation in the Equity Mates Facebook Discussion Group.———Want more Equity Mates? Across books, podcasts, video and email, however you want to learn about investing – we've got you covered.Keep up with the news moving markets with our daily newsletter and podcast (Apple | Spotify)We're particularly excited to share our latest show: Basis PointsListen to the podcast (Apple | Spotify)Watch on YouTubeRead the monthly email———Looking for some of our favourite research tools?Download our free Basics of ETF handbookOr our free 4-step stock checklistFind company information on TIKRResearch reports from Good ResearchTrack your portfolio with Sharesight———This podcast is intended for education and entertainment purposes only. Any advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances. Before acting on general advice, you should consider if it is relevant to your needs. If unsure, speak to a financial professional. The host of this podcast and their guests may have positions in the companies mentioned. Equity Mates Media is part of the Betashares Group but maintains editorial independence and operates under Australian Financial Services licence 540697. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There is no such thing as the Australian property market. That single idea from this episode changes how you read every headline about prices falling or rising. Darren and Justin sit down for a fast, from-the-hip session tackling the questions flooding their DMs and the feedback coming through their ads. No long narrative, just straight answers to what investors actually want to know. This episode answers: Is the property market actually going down?Australia holds 15,000 individual property markets moving on entirely different cycles. Media coverage focuses on three capital cities, but during the GFC, while most of the world's property values were falling, Perth grew 139% in three years. Is established property still a smart buy?It's not the property that grows, it's the market underneath it. Why owner-occupier heavy markets outperform investor-flooded ones, and how government incentives can quietly turn a suburb into a trap. Should you buy commercial property right now?Commercial isn't about market timing, it's about knowing your own investment profile first. What actually separates a smart commercial purchase from an expensive mistake. Why do bank valuations differ so much?There can be a 35% gap between what different banks say your property is worth. The difference between a desktop valuation and a physical walkthrough, and why it matters more than most people realise. What is leverage and how does it actually work?Put down $100,000, borrow $900,000, and a 7% gain on that million dollars is a 70% cash on cash return. The real difference between leverage and equity, explained simply. Should you buy your first home now that Sydney prices have dropped?Darren shares why his own capital stays in working assets, and the three-step framework for knowing when buying where you want to live actually makes financial sense. Connect with Us:Instagram: @tiapropertybuyersWebsite: theinvestorsagency.com.au The Lazy Equity Podcast by The Investors Agency. New episodes fortnightly — follow on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. General information only. Not financial or investment advice. Always seek advice based on your individual circumstances.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Grow Your Wealth podcast, host Travis Miller sits down with Michael Blythe, an economist with more than 30 years' experience shaping economic policy and analysing financial markets across Australia. Michael shares his career journey - graduating from the University of Sydney and spending 13 years at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to his long-standing role as Chief Economist at Commonwealth Bank and his current position as an independent economist. He reflects on navigating economic shocks like the GFC, earning the title of CBA's "resident optimist," and how data-driven insights and big-picture flexibility help navigate changing market cycles. Michael also unpacks the current interest rate and inflation landscape, property market pressures, key mentors who shaped his approach, tips for building long-term wealth, and life outside the markets. This episode is packed with practical wisdom for investors, business leaders, and anyone looking to understand the macro forces driving the Australian economy. – Career Overview: Michael Blythe's 30+ Years Across the RBA and CBA – Becoming an Independent Economist and Partnering with iPartners – The RBA Pipeline: How Economics Graduate Paths Have Evolved – Foundational Lessons from Working with Australia's Top Economists at the RBA – Macro Outlook: Interest Rates, Inflation, Oil Prices, and the Australian Consumer – Influential Mentors: From High School Maths to Glenn Stevens and David Murray – The Chief Economist's Role: Pitching to Clients, Handling Stress, and Independent Thinking – Pivotal Career Moments: Moving to CBA and Being the "Resident Optimist" During the GFC – What Drives Success: Client Feedback, Value Creation, and Stress-Testing Big Ideas – Career Advice for Aspiring Economists and the Rise of Double Degrees – Managing Bumps in the Road: Black Swan Events, Confirmation Bias, and Forecasting – Big-Picture Flexibility, High-Frequency Data, and Banking Data Insights – Defining Career Success: Calling Economic Resilience and Client Relationships – Property Market Reality Check: Rate Hikes, Supply Shortages, Diesel Costs, and First-Home Investors – Quickfire Questions: First Jobs, Share Buying Lessons, Wealth Creation, and Walking Sutherland Shire – Closing Remarks and Connecting with Michael Blythe Grow Your Wealth Podcast Website: https://www.ipartnerspodcast.com.au iPartners Website: https://www.ipartners.com.au Register Here: https://ipartners.iplatforms.com.au/register/register-as-wholesale/ iPartners LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ipartners-pty-ltd

"I had everything on the wire, on the line," says Grant Wilckens, remembering when the global financial crisis hit. The chief executive and founder of G'Day Group had started his holiday parks business in 2004 when Lehman Brothers collapsed. "It was probably the hardest I've ever worked, the most stressed I've ever been." On this week's episode, BOSS editor Sally Patten sits down with the former investment banker to find out how he survived the GFC, the lessons it taught him and how it fundamentally changed his business. This podcast was sponsored by Aussie Broadband. Further reading: The key trait private equity looks for when hiring a CEO Thomson Reuters president Steve Hasker shares HR tips and why the soaring cost of AI tokens might just save your job. Fasting, coffee and no chores: A Young Rich Lister’s success formula Oscar Ledlin reveals the secrets of his success, including where his best ideas come from, his morning routine and the advice he almost always ignores.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chair Warsh has communicated very little at his first two press conferences, aiming to increase policy flexibility and free markets to “play the ball, not the referee.” This is a marked change from his predecessors who viewed frequent communication as a form of transparency and helpful guidance. Some of Warsh's desired reforms, however, are subject to FOMC approval and cannot be implemented unilaterally. In this episode, we talk with Narayana Kocherlakota, former President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, about how the Fed approached communication through the GFC, the process for reforming FOMC procedures, and the optimal balance between monetary policy flexibility and guidance. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial's Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what's moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

In this episode, Nathan reflects on what he would do differently if he was starting out today. From his first deal on the Gold Coast with no internet and no real estate portals, to how the fundamentals of property investing have stayed the same while everything around them has changed. 00:00 - Intro: if you could start again, what would you do differently  01:30 - The Gold Coast in the early 2000s  03:00 - What happened to Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast through the GFC cycle  05:00 - Where to start: setting an income goal and working backwards 07:00 - The noise problem 09:00 - Positive cashflow vs negative gearing 11:00 - How demographics and lifestyle have changed what good asset selection looks like  13:00 - Why there is actually more access to cashflow positive property today than in 2005  15:00 - Final word: be fluid, keep moving, and inflation is your biggest asset if you use it right Make your move on your property journey today: https://binvested.com.au/make-your-move-now/ What are your thoughts on this video? Share them below and show us some love if you found this video useful.

"Purpose is about building better lives." That philosophy has guided Ben Evans from his early years in Tasmania all the way to becoming CEO of COVA Group.In this episode of The Quest for Success Podcast, Jam and Dylan Pathirana sit down with Ben Evans for a conversation on leadership, purpose, and what it actually takes to build a business that spans continents.Ben shares his journey from an engineer working in the trades to leading COVA Group through some of the most turbulent periods in recent business history, including the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19. He reflects on how his early years in Tasmania shaped his values, how his personal definition of success has evolved over time, and the pivotal decision to expand the business into Asia, a move that reshaped the company and taught him hard lessons about managing multicultural teams and building a truly global culture.The conversation explores what it takes to lead through crisis, why communication becomes even more critical during turbulent times, and how Ben has balanced honouring the legacy of a long-standing business while still pushing for innovation. He also shares his perspective on the qualities that make a high-performance team, the role of authenticity and relationships in doing business across cultures, and where he sees engineering and digital transformation heading in the years ahead.This episode is a genuine look at what leadership actually requires when the stakes are high, the markets are unfamiliar, and the pressure to hold onto what matters most has never been greater.What we cover:Ben Evans' early years and influences growing up in TasmaniaHow his personal definition of success has shifted over timeThe transition from trades and engineering into leadershipLeadership lessons from the GFC and COVID-19The decision to expand into Asia and what it taught himManaging multicultural teams and building a global cultureBalancing legacy and innovation in a long-standing businessThe role of purpose in guiding major business decisionsLessons learned from major projects and negotiationsWhat it takes to build a high-performance teamThe future of engineering and digital transformationChapters:00:00 Introduction and Ben Evans' background02:34 What does success mean to Ben Evans?04:18 The shift in Ben Evans' personal definition of success07:59 Early years and influences from Tasmania12:04 Transition from trades to engineering and leadership16:50 Deciding to expand into Asia22:20 Leadership lessons from navigating turbulent times35:42 The journey of Asia expansion and key lessons learned50:40 Building a global culture and managing cross-cultural teams01:08:12 The future of engineering and digital transformation01:20:53 Reflections on success and legacyConnect with Ben Evans:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benevanscova/#QuestForSuccess #BenEvans #Leadership #Engineering #BusinessGrowth #AsiaExpansion #Purpose #Success #Mentorship #Innovation #Culture #PersonalDevelopment #COVAGroup #BusinessPodcast #InspirationFollow us on all your favourite platforms:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheQuestforSuccessPodFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/people/The-Quest-For-Success-Podcast/61560418629272/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thequestforsuccesspod/Twitter: https://x.com/quest4success_LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-quest-for-successTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thequestforsuccesspodWebsite: www.thequestforsuccesspodcast.com Please share this around to anyone you think will get value from it : )

What if the biggest edge in manager selection wasn't due diligence, but ownership — literally betting your own balance sheet alongside the managers you back?In this episode of Insight is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Ash Lawrence, Head of AGF Capital Partners, to unpack a strategy that flips traditional manager selection on its head: AGF doesn't just allocate capital to alternative managers, it takes meaningful ownership stakes in them. Ash explains why AGF holds majority or significant equity in New Holland Capital, Kensington Capital Partners, and SAF Group — three managers spanning absolute return, private credit, private equity, and venture capital — and how that ownership model delivers deeper transparency, better alignment, and real accountability that a typical sub-advisory relationship can't match. The conversation dives into how AGF preserves each manager's operational independence and culture, why sequencing alternatives allocations depends on an advisor's experience level, and where 2026 has tested (and rewarded) each strategy: private equity distributions stuck at GFC-era lows, a resurgence in venture capital fueled by AI and defense tech, and commodity and macro dislocations creating opportunity for tactical strategies like New Holland's Tactical Alpha. Ash also shares a candid take on Kensington's defense and security platform, One9, and why institutional appetite for the sector is shifting from cautious curiosity to conviction. The episode closes with Ash's most important advice for advisors considering their first alternatives allocation: understand fund structure and gating mechanisms before you understand the underlying strategy, and never let headlines drive an investment decision. TIMESTAMPED CHAPTERS 0:00 – Introduction: AGF's ownership-backed model 0:47 – Meet Ash Lawrence, Head of AGF Capital Partners 1:58 – 2026's volatile market landscape 3:00 – Bond diversification challenges and long-term conviction 5:04 – Manager selection vs. taking ownership stakes 6:58 – Ash's philosophy: why ownership beats sub-advisory 9:05 – What ownership reveals that outside due diligence can't 13:32 – Preserving operational independence at New Holland, Kensington, and SAF 18:03 – Three mandates, one platform: sequencing alternatives for advisors 21:41 – New Holland's Tactical Alpha: the "utility player" strategy 24:00 – 2026 stress test: private equity distributions at GFC-era lows 27:52 – Venture capital's rebound and the rise of defense tech 30:57 – Conviction, capital, and the discipline to buy the dip 37:34 – New Holland's second-half opportunities in commodities and macro 39:37 – Kensington One Nine: the defense and security inflection point 47:56 – The most important thing advisors still misunderstand about alternatives 50:23 – Why headlines are a bad investment timing tool 53:37 – Closing thoughts: "You win or you learn" #AlternativeInvestments #PrivateEquity #PrivateCredit #VentureCapital #AGFCapitalPartners #AshLawrence #InsightIsCapital #WealthManagement #FinancialAdvisors #DefenseTech #HedgeFunds #PortfolioDiversification #InvestingPodcast #AssetManagement #ManagerSelection #MacroInvesting #CanadianFinance #InvestmentStrategy

My guest this episode is Stacie Mintz, Managing Director and Head of Quantitative Equity at PGIM Quantitative Solutions.Stacie has spent 33 years at PGIM, and she's been there for every defining moment of the firm's quant equity effort: a first strategy born from a client's challenge to move beyond indexing, a 1999 decision to abandon Barra and bring the risk model in-house, surviving the quant quake of August 2007, and the post-GFC realization that in a crowded-factor world, it's not enough to be a quant — you have to be a different quant.We dig into what PGIM's "fundamental quant" label actually means in practice, from a financing factor that asks how a company funds its growth, to a factor taxonomy that includes an unfamiliar Linkages group and — unusually for a quant shop — excludes momentum entirely.In the back half, we turn to the frontier: turning qualitative signals like board composition and innovation into systematic factors, building models that assess emergent shocks like COVID and AI in real time, and why Stacie calls LLMs "bazookas" — tools powerful enough to blow up what already works, which is exactly why you start with the insight and only then reach for the tool.Please enjoy my conversation with Stacie Mintz.

Markets can go sideways for ten or fifteen years. The CAPE ratio sits at 42. Global debt is stretched, and retail investors are piling into property, Bitcoin, and leveraged ETFs. So what happens next, and how do you position for it?In this special two-part episode, Steve Moriarty and Jacob Senior lay out an investment philosophy built to work through the entire market cycle, not just the good years. Drawing on Nassim Taleb's Incerto, the Kelly Criterion, and the risk-first thinking of investors like Ed Thorpe, Steve explains what separates fragile portfolios from robust ones, and robust ones from truly antifragile ones. You'll hear why the "time the market versus time in the market" debate is a false choice, the two scenarios Steve thinks are most likely from here (a GFC-style crash, or a Japan-style deleveraging that grinds asset prices lower over ten to twenty years), and how Taleb's three categories, coffee cups, weights, and everything in between, apply to the assets sitting in your portfolio right now.Part 2 will cover how to actually build the portfolio.If you want to think differently about your money, learn more about our approach at totalmoneymanagement.com.au, or take our free investor personality assessment at totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-types to find out what kind of investor you are.This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642.

Is the Australian property market heading for a crash in 2026 or setting up for its next big boom? In this episode of the Help Me Buy Property Podcast, Moxin Reza sits down with property expert John Lindeman to break down what's really happening in the market right now.With rising interest rates, global uncertainty, inflation pressures, and shifting investor confidence, many are asking the big question: should you invest now or wait? This episode dives deep into real data, historical trends, and market behavior to uncover the truth.You'll learn:What current market signals are telling us (sales vs listings data)Why prices are softening in cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and CanberraHow Perth outperformed and what that means going forwardLessons from the GFC and COVID property cyclesWhether today's uncertainty is a risk or an opportunityHow smart investors position themselves during “concern” phasesIf you're a first home buyer, investor, or simply watching the Australian property market, this episode will give you clarity and confidence backed by real insights.Don't make decisions based on fear. Understand the data and stay ahead of the market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

When markets wobble, should investors take action or stay the course?In this episode, Tim and Rory unpack the difference between market signal and market noise. From breaking news and social media panic to global events like the GFC, Covid and market crashes, they explain why emotional reactions can derail long term financial success and what investors should focus on instead. (00:00:26) Intro: Separating market facts from market noise(00:01:24) Understanding the difference between signal and noise(00:02:11) Why investor emotions can lead to poor decisions(00:03:11) The risks of reacting to headlines and market volatility(00:05:01) When to review your KiwiSaver and investment settings(00:06:33) Why market downturns can benefit long term KiwiSaver investors(00:07:55) The challenge of sticking to a financial plan during uncertainty(00:09:01) Key takeaway: ignore the noise and focus on long term goalsRory O'Neill is a Financial Adviser as well as the Director and General Manager at Stewart Group, a Hawke's Bay and Wellington-based CEFEX-certified financial planning and advisory firm. Stewart Group provides personal fiduciary services, Wealth Management, Risk Insurance & KiwiSaver solutions. The Adviser Talk is available on all major streaming platforms, including Spotify and Apple Music.The information provided, or any opinions expressed in this show, are of a general nature only and should not be construed or relied on as a recommendation to invest in a financial product or class of financial products. You should seek financial advice specific to your circumstances from an Authorised Financial Adviser before making any financial decisions. A disclosure statement can be obtained free of charge by calling 0800 878 961 or visiting our website, www.stewartgroup.co.nz Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the giant US economy is slowing. It hasn't had three consecutive lackluster quarters in at least a decade, certainly not since the GFC. US jobless claims fell last week but by less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than last year at this time but only marginally less than two years ago. US PCE inflation fell in June to 3.7% from 4.0% in May, as analysts had expected. But that is way higher than the Fed used to say it would tolerate. Personal disposable income rose less than personal spending, and for a fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, their Q2-2026 GDP update sagged in its first estimate, now up +1.5% and lower than the Q1-2025 final reading of +2.0%. Analysts had expected Q2 to come in at 2.1% so this data is a disappointment. It does mean a Fed rate hike is probably off the table, so equity markets rose. But so did long term bond yields although there was a notable pullback in short term yields and so their rate curve steepened sharply. The USD also took a tumble and is now down -1.6% in just the past two days. As expected, China's top leadership pledged to roll out targeted stimulus measures to support their economy in the second half of the year. The directives, issued at a Politburo meeting yesterday, come as the world's second-largest economy faces weak domestic demand and deepening structural imbalances. Second-quarter growth has been lower than they need to reach their targets. In Japan, observers see a Bank of Japan market intervention to support the yen. The yen rose sharply to the 157 range against the US dollar at one point yesterday, its strongest level since mid-May. Staying in Japan, consumer sentiment picked up in July but that is off a lowish base and it is barely back to its 2023-2024 levels. Sentiment surveys in the EU were out too for July and they rose again to extend their streak for both consumers and business sentiment.. EU GDP results for Q2-2026 were also released overnight, rising to 1.2% from a year ago. For them, that is quite positive. In Germany, CPI inflation rose 2.8% in July, up from 2.3% in June which was below what they had in prior months, so more back at trend. The Bank of England reviewed their monetary policy overnight, but made no changes. In Australia in a briefing released on the ASX, banking major NAB noted that their "total Australian home lending applications were 15% lower than the prior quarter". Staying in Australia, they reported that the number of new dwellings consented rose +7.2% in June from May to 18,328 (up +8.9% from a year ago). Houses were up only +0.4% but other dwellings were up almost +18% from May, although that doesn't quite take them back to year-ago levels despite this recent surge. Yesterday, Ampol (the owner of Z Energy here) reported sharply increased margins. Clearly refiners have been adding much more to retail prices than just the higher cost of crude. Global air travel fell in June, not by a lot, but essentially driven by sharp retreats in Middle East travel. Also unusual is a fall-off in both domestic and international travel in North America, an unexpected shift. Domestic air travel in China was also unusually weak. Container freight rates fell again last week, down -3% but they remain +70% higher than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates also fell marginally to be -24% lower than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is nearly at a 20 year high. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +44 bps (+13 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +36 bps (+8 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +100 bps (+6 bps). There has been a sharp steepening of the US rate curve today, a harsh market verdict on the Warsh performance yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4105/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have dipped by -50 USc from yesterday at now just under US$84/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$89/bbl and down -US$1.50. Hormuz transits are still constrained. There have been 3 crude tankers and only 7 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and ten entering for new loads (4 dark). The Red Sea activity is still low at less than 20 either way. The Kiwi dollar is up +100 bps from yesterday at just under 58.8 USc and suddenly back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +30 bps to 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.5 which is up +80 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,802 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 29, describing a volatile “Fed day” as the FOMC held Fed funds unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets swung sharply and finished broadly lower, with the Dow down 1,153 points (about 2%), the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and Nasdaq down 1.7%, alongside higher rates, rising Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, and WTI up nearly 7%. He notes a dramatically steepening yield curve, reduced reliance on forward guidance as described by Warsh, and futures implying a 53% chance of a September hike and 31 bps of hikes through year-end. He highlights a divided Fed with three dissenters and discusses a question comparing AI hyperscalers to GFC-era “systemically important” financials, contrasting past equity wipeouts with proposals for government equity participation in AI firms. 00:00 Welcome and Fed Day 00:43 Market Whipsaw Recap 01:17 Rates Oil and Geopolitics 01:38 Yield Curve and Fed Signals 03:01 AI Bailout Question 03:30 GFC Parallels and Differences 04:28 Wrap Up and Takeaways Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On this episode of Chit Chat Stocks, Brett and Ryan continue their study of super investors by looking at David Tepper. We discuss: (00:00) Introduction (07:40) Founding of Appaloosa and initial investment philosophy (10:01) Tepper's track record and notable returns (18:48) Case study: Russian 1998 financial crisis (24:09) Investing during the Enron and dot-com busts (32:07) The GFC rebound: Tepper's boldest move (40:22) Recent macro bets: China (46:19) Lessons from Tepper's investment approach and philosophy (52:29) Portfolio overview ***************************************************** Subscribe to our newsletter, Emerging Moats: emergingmoats.com  ********************************************************************* Chit Chat Stocks is presented by Interactive Brokers. Get professional pricing, global access, and premier technology with the best brokerage for investors today:  https://www.interactivebrokers.com/  Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC.  ********************************************************************* Fiscal.ai is building the future of financial data. With custom charts, AI-generated research reports, and endless analytical tools, you can get up to speed on any stock around the globe. All for a reasonable price.  Use our LINK and get 15% off any premium plan: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/chitchat  ********************************************************************* Disclosure: Chit Chat Stocks hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In Q2 2026, 5 of 6 Denver detached home segments posted negative price growth. Only homes above 2,991 square feet were positive, up 1.6%. That’s the kind of detail that gets averaged out when you only look at metro-level numbers, and it’s the reason this Q2 2026 Denver real estate recap goes segment by segment through Your Castle Real Estate’s quarterly trends packet. Chris Lopez walks through Your Castle’s Q2 2026 Denver Metro Trends packet in this solo episode. This isn’t a monthly market snapshot. It’s a quarterly deep dive that goes underneath the metro average to show where the real Q2 price action was happening. When you break the detached market into six size buckets, the smaller homes were down 2 to 3% while only the largest segment held positive ground. On the condo side, units under 750 square feet were down 12% while the largest condos held flat. That’s why flippers Chris talks to shifted toward $800,000 and million-dollar-plus homes through the first half of 2026 rather than hunting the entry-level market. Chris also walks through the 50-year log-scale view of Denver home prices, comparing today’s slow correction to the harder resets of the GFC and the 1980s, and closes with a pricing lesson from Q2 transaction data. In This Episode We Cover: Why this Q2 recap is a quarterly deep dive rather than a monthly panel update The six detached home segments where 5 of 6 were negative in Q2 Why the only positive detached segment was homes above 2,991 square feet The condo breakdown where units under 750 square feet fell 12% Why flippers shifted toward $800K and million-dollar homes Where Denver home prices sat on a 50-year log scale after Q2 How today’s correction compares to the GFC and 1980s resets Why priced-right homes sold in 12 days and mispriced ones took 68 The Q2 2026 Denver real estate recap from Your Castle’s data shows a segmented market where the pressure sat almost entirely on smaller detached homes and small condos, while the largest homes held or gained. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or holder, this recap gives you the segment-level read on what actually happened in Q2 and where the openings showed up. Watch the Youtube Video https://youtu.be/ounSxyjILOE Timestamps 00:00 Intro 02:11 – The Denver inventory surprise that caught Chris off guard 04:22 – Why the metro average is hiding the real Q2 story 05:11– The only home size that gained value last quarter 07:05 – Why flippers moved into luxury homes in Q2 08:27 – Where Denver condo prices took the biggest hit 09:26– Denver home prices on a 50-year view 14:11 – The pricing rule that separates 12-day sales from 68 Links in Podcast Your Castle Real Estate Q2 2026 Denver Metro Trends packetEmail Chris: chris@propertylama.com

Robert-Jan Foortse has been at APG for 23 years - he warned the man who hired him he'd probably get bored and leave within 3. He'd only been available because Arthur Andersen collapsed after Enron, and the job came out of sharing a cab back to the airport with the head of real estate at ABP. Today he runs the European property portfolio and sits on the investment committee at a pension investor with around €600bn under management, just over €50bn of it in property, run by 55 people. That headcount only works because APG doesn't manage anything itself. Every position sits alongside a local operating partner handling the leasing, financing and day-to-day. His framing is horse racing - back a blind pool fund and you're picking the jockey, and APG would rather pick the horses. After the GFC they cut the number of positions, wrote much bigger cheques, insisted on governance rights, and moved away from traditional fund managers towards operators like citizenM, McArthurGlen and The Social Hub. People building businesses, rather than collecting rent and charging a fee for it. What that's produced isn't the portfolio you'd guess. Offices are 1% of the European book, on the logic that a good office pitch is exactly where a council will happily consent the tower next door. Residential is close to 40%. They spent a long time trying to buy into European data centres, got outbid on one and couldn't agree terms on the other, then worked out they already owned the exposure - roughly 30% of Digital Realty and Equinix by assets sits in Europe. His sense-check for that sort of thing is his mother, a retired teacher, 91 this summer and an ABP pensioner. She doesn't care which regional portfolio it's parked in. What guests would you love to see next on PPP? Let us know in the comments. The People Property Place Podcast is powered by Rockbourne, recruiting leadership talent for real estate funds, owners, investors, and developers. LIKE - SHARE - SUBSCRIBE http://peoplepropertyplace.com/

It was a pleasure to host an Alpha Exchange discussion with Franklin Parlamis, the Founder and CIO of Aequim Alternative Investments. Franklin brings a distinctive perspective shaped by two decades in capital structure and convertible bond arbitrage. His career spans the Russian debt restructuring of 1998—where he witnessed firsthand how broken correlations can unwind hedges—through the convertible market collapse of 2008, when leverage amplified systemic stress and "the machine broke." Our conversation explores how convertibles sit at the nexus of multiple asset classes: rates, rate volatility, credit, credit volatility, equities, and stock lending. When any of these inputs malfunctions, arbitrage breaks down. Franklin's experience navigating the GFC reinforced a critical lesson: sometimes the bravest move is admitting losses and right-sizing risk, a discipline that positioned his team to prosper during 2009's rebound. Franklin articulates a central insight: markets are generally good at identifying undervalued companies but less efficient at allocating value across the capital structure. The key tension he navigates is credit spreads versus equity volatility. When spreads are wide and implied vol is low, convertibles offer clean arbitrage: the rich credit premium can fund put protection at cheap vol levels. Today's environment inverts this relationship: spreads remain tight while vol sits elevated, forcing arbitrageurs to continuously realize vega rather than harvest it passively. We close by examining whether elevated implied volatilities represent a permanent regime shift or cyclical peak. Rather than making a binary call, Franklin describes the process he uses to identify asymmetric opportunities across plausible scenarios. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Franklin Parlamis.

Season 8, Episode 5: How did Madison Realty Capital grow from a $10M fund into one of the most active private credit platforms in real estate? Today, we sit down with Josh Zegen, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Madison Realty Capital, to break down how MRC built its lending business before private credit became an institutional asset class. Josh shares how the firm survived the GFC, became vertically integrated, and scaled into a major capital source for sponsors when banks pulled back. Whether you're interested in distressed debt, construction lending, office-to-residential conversions, or today's maturity wall, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we dive into how Madison thinks about risk, rescue capital, borrower relationships, and finding opportunity in a volatile market. Shoutout to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace. New construction rental investments with comps, returns, and underwriting built in. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction to Josh Zegen and Madison Realty Capital 05:00 – The Early Private Credit Opportunity 10:53 – Surviving the GFC and Taking Over Assets 15:45 – Becoming a Construction Lending Powerhouse 19:00 – Back Leverage and Lending to Lenders 24:12 – Distress, Rescue Capital, and Loan Workouts 31:24 – Fundraising, Insurance Capital, and Investor Demand 35:44 – The Pfizer Office-to-Residential Conversion 42:40 – West Palm Beach, Florida, Texas, and Hot Markets 48:12 – Recaps, Volatility, and Building Through the Cycle For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Robert Feldman and Michael Gapen discuss how AI could reshape growth, labor markets and productivity in the U.S. and Japan.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Robert Feldman: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Robert Feldman, Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities in Tokyo. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Robert Feldman: Today, we'll discuss why the U.S. and Japanese economies may react differently to the AI productivity test. It's Thursday, July 9th at 8 pm in Tokyo. Michael Gapen: And 9 am in New York. Robert Feldman: AI is the biggest theme around the world right now, but AI will play out differently in different economies. Take the cases of the U.S. and Japan. In the U.S., it's already a catalyst in investment, imports, productivity, and the labor market outlook. But here in Japan, it's seen as a savior for an economy with an intense labor shortage, low unemployment, and very little room to raise labor force participation. Mike, in the U.S., AI's contribution to real GDP growth will rise from about 0.05 percentage points in 2024 to an estimated 0.43 percentage points in 2027. What does that mean for markets? Michael Gapen: Well, Robby, I think it, it means a number of things, but, you know, I'm an economist, so the answer is always, "It depends." I think the real crux of the issue over time in the U.S., and therefore what it means for financial markets, is ultimately whether AI is labor replacing – and pushes the unemployment rate higher. Or it acts like a more traditional general-purpose technology that's labor augmenting. So, if, that's the case, meaning it looks similar to the internet and digital era, then it would mean faster output growth, stronger productivity growth, but still an economy that's running at or near full employment. That would be very beneficial in our estimation for risk assets, equity markets, credit markets, and it would probably mean that we stay in an interest rate environment that's certainly higher than it was during the post GFC period. But if – AI is a very different technology than we've seen in the past, and it displaces labor, and we get increases in the unemployment rate as AI diffuses through the economy. Then it could be very different for markets. Maybe returns to capital and equity markets are supported, but that might be more narrowly for technology stocks and not broader, say, consumer discretionary stocks. So, the answer, of course, is it depends. We don't know. And I think, ultimately, we come down on the side of thinking that AI will not create dystopian outcomes in the labor markets, that employment will hold up. So, we have a fairly constructive view, perhaps an optimistic view. And we think, ultimately it'll benefit markets greatly, similar to what we saw from the mid-90s to the early 2000's. Robert Feldman: Well, in your model, you have a particular variable that captures the speed of diffusion. But your baseline has AI spreading twice as fast as the internet did. But without that rise of employment. Is that really manageable? And if it's not, what economic indicators would warn us, if we're crossing into the danger zone? Michael Gapen: This is really the tricky part as, as you know. We have a new technology. We have to model how it diffuses through the economy. And I would say I think there's an argument here that penetration rates and usage rates are very different than what economists think about diffusion, which is how the production process is reshaped because of this new technology. And so most economists look at the internet and digital era and think it took 20-25 years to fully diffuse. Mass penetration in maybe 10 years, but full diffusion in more like 20-25 years. And so, each innovation cycle tends to happen more rapidly. So, I do think AI will spread more rapidly. And even by saying it spreads twice as fast as the internet did still means that it'll take roughly a decade, maybe 10-12 years for this to fully diffuse. So, our argument here would be that that is enough time for a flexible economy and a flexible labor market, like we have in the U.S., to rebalance labor. But if we're wrong, then Robby, what I think you will see is that as AI rolls through, it diffuses faster. And what we would see then is increases in rates of job separation and layoffs that would overwhelm the labor market's ability to reallocate workers. So, I think we would see two things – or three things: scale layoffs, a rise in the unemployment rate, and probably a significant amount of underemployment. Those who get rebalanced may be rebalanced into work that's not, say, consistent with the skill of that worker. So, I think we would see a very disrupted labor market in the process. But if it takes a decade, maybe 10-12 years, we think ultimately the U.S. economy is flexible enough to rebalance labor without large scale layoffs. Robert Feldman: Now, people are afraid of a lot of things, but one other thing is that AI might create new kinds of jobs, new kinds of tasks, have different impacts on people's wealth, and different responses from policymakers as well. How do these knock-on effects change the AI labor story? Michael Gapen: Yeah. That's right. I think you make a very good point there that I think it's easy to fall into what an economist would call a partial equilibrium trap. So, for example, we look at occupations exposed to AI task replacement, and we say, "Wow, if all these tasks are replaced, we might lose 10 million workers or 20 million workers." But that's too simplistic, in our view. Because as you note, AI may destroy some tasks or replace some tasks, but it's also going to create new ones. So, it may eliminate some types of occupations but create others. And in addition, if people are, say, laid off because of AI, you get a loss in labor market income for the economy. But AI will likely create returns to capital, say, stronger equity performance, and that's an indirect wealth effect. So, our model kind of, looks at, say, three wedges or three horse races in the economy then. It's about the speed of diffusion of AI against the ability of the labor market to rebalance. It's task destruction or task replacement versus new task creation. And then third, it's we might have weakness in labor market income in the short run, but there are indirect wealth effects. So, thinking about it this way in a richer general equilibrium context, these feedback effects matter a lot. So, the combination of if the labor market's disrupted, we get easing in monetary policy, maybe a fiscal response. There are new tasks, new jobs that are created for workers to rebalance to over time. And overall demand in the economy gets held up because wealth effects can offset some lost income. All of that is extremely important in our view that ultimately the U.S. economy can rebalance and handle the AI diffusion in a manageable way. We could be wrong, of course, but our main point here is you have to think about this in a richer context. You can't just simply, say, stack up workers and occupations and say, "Oh, we're going to lose a lot of employment." That's not the way innovation waves have worked in the past. We don't think they're going to work that way in the future. Robert Feldman: Mm-hmm. That's fascinating because the situation in the United States is so different from that in Japan, largely because of the demographic situation. Here in Japan, the key element is how much AI can ease the labor shortage. In fact, in some labor-intensive jobs now, we're seeing 6 percent wage increases, and that's great. As long as productivity rises fast enough that price hikes aren't necessary. Michael Gapen: So Robby, in your scenarios for Japan, the same 10 percent productivity gain can lead to very different outcomes. Deflation and weaker employment in one case. More inflation, higher wages, and more employment in another. What do you think drives the difference? Robert Feldman: Mm-hmm. Well, the crucial element really is the flexibility of goods and labor markets. With high flexibility, you get higher GDP, higher employment, and moderate inflation. With low flexibility, you may get a bit higher GDP, but employment plunges, and there's deflation of both prices and wages – more in wages. Now, in Japan, over the last two decades, we've seen monopoly power in key markets go down. For example, agriculture and energy. Labor markets are more flexible too, but lifetime employment system still applies to about two-thirds of the economy. And that deters people from trying to find better jobs and even from acquiring the skills needed for a new job. Michael Gapen: What conditions are needed for AI to be additive to Japan's economy? Robert Feldman: We need more reskilling. Japan is lucky because people are healthy, and they want to work into their 70s and beyond. But acquiring the skills to remain productive is a challenge, even though Japan's workforce is well-educated and still has a strong work ethic. So, to sum up, in the U.S., the race is between diffusion and absorption. But in Japan it's between labor scarcity and productivity. Is that fair? Michael Gapen: It is fair, and we come down on the side of optimism. We think diffusion will happen fast, but it'll happen at a pace that the U.S. economy can handle. So, we come down having a positive view overall. We do not lean in the direction of dystopian labor market outcomes. Robert Feldman: Mm-hmm. I agree with that as well for Japan. So, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Robby-san. Robert Feldman: And thanks for listening, everyone. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

 Is the 2028 Global Financial Crisis inevitable?    After studying over 200 years of economic cycles and the 18.6-year land cycle, the data points to a massive shift coming for property investors.    In this video, Ben from Pumped on Property breaks down the historical data from the 1800s to today to show you exactly how the 'Winner's Curse' phase works and why 2028 is the date every investor needs to watch.     We aren't just talking about a crash - we're talking about how to thrive in it.    What we cover:    1. The 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle explained.  2. Why 2026-2027 is the "Winner's Curse" period.  3. The 200+ years of data proving the 2028 GFC.  4. My 3-step strategy to protect your portfolio and buy the dip.  5. Why the "Global Reset" is an opportunity for prepared Aussie investors.    —    Thinking about buying an investment property in Australia in the next 3 to 12 months?     Then book your free strategy session here: https://www.pumpedonproperty.com/free-strategy-session     What can you expect from your free strategy session?    In your strategy session, we will discuss:    1. Where you are right now  2. Where you want to be long-term  3. What's been holding you back from achieving your property investment goals until now  4. Your next action steps     You'll walk away from the call with a clear plan in place and the confidence you need to invest in your next property.    —    

Join an active community of RE investors here: https://linktr.ee/gabepetersen

Dave Trepanier's path into structured credit wasn't linear. Growing up on a French-Canadian farm in rural Ontario, he learned grit, teamwork, and how to make decisions when outcomes are uncertain—lessons that would later show up in an unlikely place: the earliest days of the CLO market. Now Global Head of GCSS-Structured Products in FICC Trading at Bank of America, Dave has helped build one of the industry's leading CLO and CDO trading franchises while navigating every major modern credit cycle.In this episode, Dave walks through the long road from political science and law school plans to financial engineering, options markets in Chicago, and a pivotal move to Charlotte—where CLOs were still modeled by hand in Excel off faxed trustee reports. We discuss what those “stone age” workflows taught him about risk, liquidity, and market structure, how the product evolved through telecom and the GFC, and why electronification, data, and systematic strategies may define the next chapter of credit markets.

Season 8, Episode 3: How did Fernando De Leon go from translating legal disputes as a teenager on the US-Mexico border to building Leon Capital Group? Today, we sit down with Fernando De Leon, Founder and CEO of Leon Capital Group, to break down one of the most remarkable founder stories in real estate. Fernando shares how his early life in Matamoros and South Texas shaped his view of risk, opportunity, and systems. We also get into his first real estate equity stake, his time at Harvard and Goldman Sachs, and how he built conviction before the GFC. Whether you're interested in distressed debt, Texas real estate, AI, data centers, or the mindset behind durable compounding, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we dive into the skepticism, stamina, and timing that helped Fernando build across real estate, private equity, and operating businesses. Shoutout to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace. New construction rental investments with comps, returns, and underwriting built in. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction to Fernando De Leon 07:00 – Early Real Estate Lessons on the Border 14:00 – Harvard, Mentors, and Long-Term Seeds 21:40 – Leaving Goldman and Optioning Texas Land 28:29 – Buying Distressed Loans After the GFC 37:07 – Why 2008 Won't Repeat the Same Way 46:43 – AI, Data Centers, and Hidden Risk 52:48 – Building Operating Businesses 57:07 – Mental Health, Talent, and New Opportunities 01:04:00 – Mistakes, Stamina, and AI Disruption For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Banks - KBE breakout from 2007 GFC highsGold - Bottoming process...looking like 1973, 2006 now all similarJobs - AI not killing jobs like thought?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-care-for-my-wealth-show--2487688/support.

On this week's show we wrap up the financial year and the numbers are, frankly, bonkers: the AU model portfolio is up nearly 29% for the year, the Light portfolios are up nearly 36% as a group, and the US model is up 44% against a 20% S&P. Tony then does a Pulled Pork on EVZ Limited, a small engineering fabricator that has gone from 16 cents to 65 cents in 12 months and just landed on the buy list. We also get into the warning signs stacking up on Wall Street, from margin loans up 50% to the Bank of International Settlements calling out AI data centre spending as a potential GFC-style meltdown risk.

Season 8, Episode 2: How does one of the nation's largest real estate capital pools navigate a "real estate recession" while the rest of the economy stays hot? Today, we sit down with Eli Edwards, Managing Director at Fortress Investment Group and Head of US Real Estate Equity, to break down the firm's strategy in a shifting market. Eli shares how Fortress spotted the San Francisco multifamily turnaround while the "doom loop" narrative was still in full swing. We also get into the "silver tsunami" in senior housing, why student housing is now a game of picking idiosyncratic winners, and how they are leveraging Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs) to provide tax-efficient solutions for retail investors. Whether you're interested in distressed debt, Core Plus yields, or the future of the Sun Belt, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we dive into the conviction, timing, and risk discipline that helped Eli and his team at Fortress identify growth opportunities where others only saw risk. Shoutout to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace. New construction rental investments with comps, returns, and underwriting built in. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction 04:14 – Transitioning from Banking to the Buy-Side at Fortress 10:21 – Contrarian Plays: Why Fortress Went Heavy on San Francisco Multifamily 15:31 – The Sun Belt Outlook and the Looming "Supply Cliff" 18:52 – Why Equity and JV Partnerships Trump Preferred Equity Today 22:56 – Student Housing: Picking Winners in a Shrinking Demographic Pie 25:56 – The Silver Tsunami: Why Senior Housing Fundamentals are "Inelastic" 30:51 – Tax-Efficient Strategies and the Launch of the Fortress DST Platform 40:21 – GFC vs. Today: Navigating a "Real Estate Recession" Without an Economic One 45:54 – Market Outlook: Why 2026 is the Year for Real Estate Fundamental Bottoming For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

First-time homebuyers may get short windows of relief, but our co-head of Securitized Products Research James Egan and Senior Economist and Strategist in Morgan Stanley's Private Wealth Management Sarah Wolfe say the bigger story is a housing market resetting around a higher bar to entry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Strategy.Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist within Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.James Egan: And today, why first-time homebuyers are facing a tougher path to ownership.It's Tuesday, June 23rd at 10am in New York.Buying a first-time home has always been a big step, but for a growing number of first-time buyers today, the goal can really seem insurmountable.Mortgage rates might be down from where they were in the second half of 2023, but they're significantly higher than they were for the several years before that. Monthly payments have roughly doubled for a median-priced home. And my colleague Jay Bacow and I have talked several times on this podcast about how many homeowners feel like they're locked into those lower rates.And they're staying put because they just don't want to give up a two or three-handle mortgage rate for something that has a six in front of it. But Sarah, as we know, this is bigger than just first-time buyers. Now, they often start the housing transaction chain, and when they can't buy, current owners may not be able to sell and trade up.That slows turnover across the market, and it also reduces activity tied to housing – from mortgages and renovations to moving and furniture. And it can keep would-be buyers renting for longer, which adds pressure to rental demand.So, how do you see this situation? Is this just another affordability squeeze, or has the housing market reset to a higher barrier to entry?Sarah Wolfe: I do think that we're on the upper bound of affordability pressures. This is about as bad as it's going to get. But as we discussed in our recent publication of The Economy Explained, unfortunately, we do think that the housing market is resetting at a structurally higher barrier to entry. There's a lot of reasons for that.The first is higher interest rates. Yes, mortgage rates are sitting around 6.5 percent, and they should come down from here, but maybe not better than 5.5 percent, right, in an optimistic scenario. The second is demographic pressures. Remember, we have this tremendous aging population of baby boomers. All of their children are now entering their prime home-buying years, so there's a lot of demand for ownership.The third and fourth ones are land regulation and permitting, which is at the state and local level, really hard to change. And the last one is climate risk. It's just raising insurance pricing and making it much more difficult to buy a home.So overall, we see a world where, yes, mortgage rates come down a bit, improve affordability marginally, but we think neutral and other interest rates at the longer end of the curve are going to be higher than the post-financial crisis period. And what we're going to see is that those forces are going to widen the divide between who can own a home and who cannot. And who gains from that wealth accumulation and who does not.James Egan: Right. So now, you mentioned where mortgage rates are today, above that 6 percent rate. Rates did briefly – in February, we got below 6 percent before they bounced back up here. Why did that short-lived relief matter so much?Sarah Wolfe: I think that short-lived relief showed us that moves in the mortgage rate make a difference, but things are so unaffordable that it didn't make that much of a difference.So, the dip below 6 percent was very exciting. It happened this past February. It was the first time that mortgage rates fell below 6 percent since 2022, and we saw a few things happen. First, it lowered the monthly payment for first-time homebuyers from about two point two thousand dollars a month to one point nine thousand.So makes a bit of a difference. And it lowered the share of income that goes towards monthly mortgage payments from about 26 percent of income to 22 percent, from peak to trough. So, that is a notable improvement. But what we saw in the new home sales data and the existing home sales data, that it did not drive people back into the housing market.I want to turn it back to you though, Jim, because you've actually done a lot of interesting work on this. And how this change in mortgage rates has changed the monthly cost that people have to pay for a median-priced home. Can you tell us a little bit more?James Egan: Sure. So, we talk about the lock-in effect a lot, and it's kind of easy to point to: Well, there are a lot of people with mortgage rates that are around 3 percent or 3.5 percent, and the prevailing rate's at 6 percent, and that's a lot higher, so they're locked in.But when we look at the actual numbers in terms of what we're asking a homeowner to do – to list their home for sale and move to another home today, pay off that existing mortgage, take out a new one. When you take into account how much higher home prices are today…You bought a home in 2016, for instance, right? Let's assume you refinanced in 2020 or 2021 if you still live there, right? Most homeowners did. So, you've actually taken your monthly payment, and it is lower today than it was when you bought your home in 2016. If we assume that your income has risen alongside just median household income over that time period, your monthly payment as a share of your income today is probably sub 8 percent.If you bought over the past three years, your monthly payment is a share of your income. You mentioned some numbers earlier. It's low to mid 20 percent. From a dollar amount perspective, if you were to pay off that 2016 mortgage, as an example, and take out one today, your payment is probably [$]13[00] or $1400 higher. It's like a 200 percent increase. That's very difficult economically for a lot of households, and that's the kind of physical manifestation of that lock-in effect.Now, Sarah, given this significant change in housing math, what does that mean for who is actually able to buy in this market?Sarah Wolfe: It's making who's able to buy into the market a lot more selective. So, what we're seeing is that first-time home buyers today are actually not meaningfully older. They're still about 36 years old, but they are a much more selective group financially. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York put out a great analysis on this recently, and they basically found that the first-time home buyer profile today is taking out a mortgage that's nearly $350,000, compared to $240,000 in 2019 and $200,000, a decade ago. So, significant increase in mortgage balances.At the same time, credit standards have tightened significantly, so that average credit score to get a mortgage has risen quite a bit over the last 5 to 10 years. And what this is doing is it's shifting who can buy and also where they can buy. So, we're seeing higher-quality home buyers moving to lower-income zip codes. So, buying cheaper homes in lower-income metro areas, and so it's wealthier buyers in lower-income areas.And that's the really big shift that we're seeing. It's a demand resorting story. And what we're also seeing, and we hear this a lot when we talk to our financial advisors and their clients, is that family is increasingly helping their other family members put that down payment down; in particular, parents helping their children buy that first home.So, we're seeing that first-time buyers may be feeling this pressure, right, when it comes to rates. How much of this affordability issue, though, is being driven by the locked-in effect specifically?James Egan: So, look, it's clearly playing a role. We just talked about some of the math behind that. But then when you look at what that means on a nationwide basis when it comes to inventory, when it comes to so many other aspects of this, that homeowner who's unwilling to give up that lower mortgage rate, that lower payment, right, their homes are off the market.Existing inventories for sale, they've picked up from historic lows in 2023, but they're still very, very low on a long-run basis. The fewer homes there are for sale, the more upward pressure or the absence of downward pressure that's going to put on home prices, right?We saw affordability plummet in 2022 and 2023 when rates backed up. We saw existing home sales really, really come down as a result. But home prices remained at record highs. They continued to set new record highs. For home prices to actually come down, right, you need people who are willing to sell at lower home prices.Sarah, you just mentioned that lending standards themselves remain tight.Sarah Wolfe: Mm-hmm.James Egan: Those forced sales, those tend to be distressed transactions. We don't see that distress in the market providing the inventory and the motivated inventory to lead to softer home prices. So, it's really that lack of inventory which we think is in large part driven by the lock-in effect that's kept home prices. And as a result, that piece of the affordability equation kind of stuck at these higher levels.Sarah Wolfe: I mean, it's really this vicious cycle, the locked-in effect making it difficult for entry-level buyers to get into the market – and then fewer existing homeowners sell or trade up or relocate. So, on and on it goes.Are there broader implications of this freeze?James Egan: Right. So, we just talked about what that means from an inventory perspective. And then if you think about affordability remaining challenged, lending standards themselves remaining tight, inventory remaining as low as it is, you could argue that we're at one of the more difficult times that we've seen for renters to exit rentership and step into homeownership.Now, there's a lot of different things that drive rent growth, and the fact that you have a stuck renter is just one of them. The other side of that equation can be the supply of rental units, right? So that's just a piece of the equation.But those are some of the externalities that we think about when it comes to how the tightness of the housing market – what the lock-in effect and what affordability is doing there. But outside of the housing market, Sarah, the wider economy, like how do these housing costs play a role there?Sarah Wolfe: Massive effect. Some of the work that we've done shows that housing affordability is the number one driver pushing down fertility rates in America. The number one driver. Above childcare costs, above finding a partner, finding a good job. It's housing affordability. So, you could see how that could pretty significantly ripple through the broader economy.But there's other components, right? So, as we discussed earlier, it's driving migration from unaffordable areas to more affordable regions. That has significant implications. And then putting my consumer economist hat on, as we discussed earlier in the podcast, when people buy a home, they tie themselves to that home. They spend money on couches, on beds, on TVs, right? Durable goods. And if we're going to have more people as renters for longer, that's going to expand the services economy at the expense of the goods economy.All right. Let's take a step back and think about where this is all going. It hasn't been a very optimistic conversation. Jim, what is the outlook for affordability in your view? Do we get anywhere back to the post-financial crisis period or even the pre-financial crisis period?James Egan: When it comes to the outlook for mortgage rates, the outlook for affordability, the outlook for the U.S. housing market – look, we just, throughout Morgan Stanley Research and Strategy, published our 2026 major outlook. From now through the end of 2027, we don't have conventional mortgage rates getting below 6 percent.We do have affordability improving on the margins. We have income growth exceeding home price appreciation that makes it a little bit better, but that doesn't get us back to the post-GFC affordability era, which was very, very affordable. Looking back over the past several decades, it gets us closer to where we were pre-GFC, not all the way back there.But when we think about how that ripples through the housing market and how we think about that evolving from here, look, we do think that the state of mortgage credit availability means there will be a lack of distress. We think that while affordability itself may be challenged and inventories may be low, there is some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where mortgage rates are or affordability is.We think we found that level. We think there's support for home sales at these current levels, and that combination of support for home sales, lack of inventory, means that home prices, very little room for them to grow from here. But we think they're going to be pretty supported.So, from a housing market perspective, at a ten-thousand-foot view, we're calling it 1-2 percent growth in sales, in home prices, well-supported. But the affordability outlook that we've outlined throughout this podcast – challenged to see a lot of acceleration.Now, when we pull it back to the first-time home buyer, based on our conversation, it seems that the key question is becoming less about when to buy, more about who can still afford to enter the market.But Sarah, it's really been great talking with you about the housing market today.Sarah Wolfe: It was great speaking with you, Jim.James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today. ***Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Episode OverviewIn this episode of The Uncertainty Edge, host Sam Sivarajan sits down with Alan Strauss, Managing Partner at Crystal Capital Partners. With three decades navigating institutional-grade alternatives — from the dot-com crash to the GFC and today's volatile markets — Alan unpacks why alternatives are no longer truly “alternative,” how to allocate across hedge funds, private credit, and private equity, and what separates elite managers from the rest. Practical, candid, and advisor-focused. Key Quote“Alternatives are not that alternative — they should probably be called mainstream at this point.” — Alan Strauss Key Takeaways•       Alternatives should be evergreen — not a timing play. Treating them opportunistically is the most costly mistake advisors make.•       Think in three levers: capital preservation (hedge funds), income (private credit), and growth (private equity) — matched to each client's life stage.•       Not all managers are created equal. Prioritize those with genuine skin in the game over product-centric asset gatherers.•       Diversification is non-negotiable. One manager in one strategy is not a strategy — build multi-manager, multi-discipline exposure.•       Advisors who can't offer intelligent alternatives risk losing clients. The right platform partner handles due diligence, execution, and reporting so you don't have to. Sound Bites•       “Alternatives are not that alternative — they should probably be called mainstream at this point.”•       “The tortoise always wins.”•       “Not all managers are created equal.”•       “If an advisor cannot satisfy their client's objectives, the client is going to go elsewhere.” Topics Discussed00:01 — Introduction: Alan Strauss & Building Crystal Capital Partners05:27 — Is It Too Late for Alternatives? Timing, Opportunity & Risk14:57 — The Three Levers: Capital Preservation, Income & Growth22:12 — Skin in the Game: Real Decisions During Market Stress26:01 — Private Credit: Separating Genuine Opportunity from Yield Chasing Resources MentionedLearn more about Alan Strauss and Crystal Capital Partners:crystalfunds.com Stay Connected with The Uncertainty E.D.G.E.•       Join the conversation on LinkedIn — share your thoughts and connect with other forward-thinking leaders.•       Explore more insights on Sam's website.•       Check out Sam's Two Free Substack newsletters: theuncertaintyedge.com and thegoodhumanpractice.com

Season 8, Episode 1: How did two lawyers turn a handful of Arizona fourplexes into a vertically integrated real estate powerhouse with over 20,000 units renovated? Today, we sit down with John Griggs, Co-CEO and Co-Founder of Presidium, to break down the strategy behind that rise. John shares how he spotted his first opportunity in the "golden age" of the Arizona housing market before shifting his conviction to Texas just as the landscape was beginning to transform. We dive into how Presidium scaled its early portfolio to 5,000 units, the hard lessons learned from internalizing management during the GFC, and the strategic move of acquiring a special servicing company to master the mechanics of distressed debt. Whether you're interested in ground-up development, creative capital stacks involving HUD debt, or where multifamily opportunity sits in today's cycle, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we explore the risk discipline and long-term vision that helped Presidium evolve from a grassroots startup into a dominant institutional investment platform. Shoutout to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace. New construction rental investments with comps, returns, and underwriting built in. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction and Presidium's Background 01:32 – From Silicon Valley Law to the 2003 Arizona "Golden Age" 08:03 – Moving to Texas and Raising Capital for Scale 10:11 – Navigating the GFC and Internalizing Management 14:58 – The Institutionalization of Multifamily Real Estate 19:27 – Strategic Acquisition: Buying a Special Servicer 24:56 – Launching a Development Platform and Spotting Market Peaks 31:18 – Today's Creative Financing: HUD Debt and Housing Authorities 36:38 – Targeting Distress and Partnering with Lenders 42:15 – Delo Capital and the Outlook for Sun Belt Migration For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

In this premiere episode of Partner Perspectives, a special miniseries within the Look Forward podcast, host Molly Mintz examines how private markets are reshaping capital formation, portfolio construction, and long-term investment strategy. Drawing on S&P Global and Vanguard's joint research, Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead, this conversation explores why companies are staying private longer, how private equity has expanded in scale and influence, and what today's higher-rate environment means for returns and risk.  Vanguard's Bill Stout outlines an optimistic but measured view on private equity—emphasizing that disciplined underwriting, operational execution, diversification, and manager selection matter more than ever as the era of easy exits fades.  S&P Global's Evan Gunter and Ilja Hauerhof discuss private credit's rapid expansion, the rising trend of manager concentration, and how asset-based finance has emerged as a major growth engine. In addition, they highlight risks that are shaping this market evolution—including liquidity constraints and structural complexity—and explain why greater transparency, standardized reporting, and data-driven insights will be essential to unlocking the next phase of private market growth.   Chapters:  [00:00] - Introduction to Partner Perspectives and the future of private markets  [02:55] - Bill Stout on how capital formation has shifted from public to private markets  [05:15] - The biggest risks facing private equity in a higher-rate, slower-exit environment  [07:25] - Public vs. private equity performance, illiquidity premiums, and return dispersion  [08:50] - Why Vanguard's outlook for private equity is optimistic but measured   [10:55] - The case for manager selection and diversification across strategies, vintages, and regions  [13:25] - What's next: secondaries, democratized access, and fee compression  [16:15] - Transition to private credit with Evan Gunter and Ilja Hauerhof  [17:45] - How private credit evolved after the GFC and why private companies are getting bigger  [20:35] - Concentration risk and the growing dominance of the top five credit managers  [22:45] - Asset-based finance, fund finance, and infrastructure as the next frontier  [27:35] - Key risks in private credit: liquidity, transparency, and complexity  [32:35] - Why standardized data and clearer reporting are critical for future growth  [35:15] - Final takeaways and where to find more research from S&P Global and Vanguard  This podcast was authored by a cross-section of representatives from S&P Global and in certain circumstances external guest authors. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent and are not necessarily reflected in the products and services those entities offer. This research is a publication of S&P Global and does not comment on current or future credit ratings or credit rating methodologies. 

In this episode of the Grow A Small Business Podcast host Troy Trewin interviews Tim Rexius shares how he lost nearly everything during the GFC, delivered pizzas at night, and sanded floors to fund the launch of Rexius Nutrition. He reveals how relentless networking, smart risk-taking, and a commitment to learning helped him grow multiple businesses, including three successful gyms. Tim also explains how Omaha Protein Popcorn evolved from a struggling idea into a global brand stocked in over 30,000 stores across 16 countries. Along the way, he discusses leadership, marketing, building a strong team culture, and why entrepreneurs must remain lifelong students. This inspiring conversation is packed with lessons on resilience, growth, and creating opportunities from adversity. Why would you wait any longer to start living the lifestyle you signed up for? Balance your health, wealth, relationships and business growth. And focus your time and energy and make the most of this year. Let's get into it by clicking here. Troy delves into our guest's startup journey, their perception of success, industry reconsideration, and the pivotal stress point during business expansion. They discuss the joys of small business growth, vital entrepreneurial habits, and strategies for team building, encompassing wins, blunders, and invaluable advice. And a snapshot of the final five Grow A Small Business Questions: What do you think is the hardest thing in growing a small business? According to Tim Rexius, the hardest thing in growing a small business is access to capital. He believes many entrepreneurs have great ideas and the willingness to work hard, but securing funding is often the biggest challenge. Tim notes that borrowing money has become increasingly difficult, and when funding is available, the interest rates and repayment terms can be tough. He advises business owners to find creative ways to generate income while building their business so they can cover overhead costs and avoid making poor decisions under financial pressure. What's your favorite business book that has helped you the most? Tim Rexius says one of the business books that has helped him the most is Think Big, Shut the F Up and Work. He also credits Masters of Selling by Tony Robbins as a life-changing book that helped him understand communication, sales, and human behavior. Tim believes that learning how to sell effectively is one of the most valuable skills an entrepreneur can develop because it influences every aspect of business growth and success. Are there any great podcasts or online learning resources you'd recommend to help grow a small business? Tim Rexius shared invaluable entrepreneurial wisdom across several platforms, including his standout appearances on The Management Blueprint Podcast, The Deep Wealth Podcast, and the Phat Muscle Project Podcast, where he breaks down real-world scaling strategies and leadership frameworks. His home base at timrexius.com also offers direct access to Rexius Business Consulting, where he mentors entrepreneurs globally on franchising, retail expansion, and building strong team cultures. For broader small business growth, the Grow a Small Business Podcast hosted by Troy Trewin — the very show Tim featured on — delivers weekly deep-dives with founders tackling the same challenges. You can also follow Tim on Instagram, YouTube, and LinkedIn at @timothy_d_rexius for ongoing, no-BS business insights from someone who built a $50M brand from nothing. What tool or resource would you recommend to grow a small business? Tim Rexius shares that the most powerful tool for growing a small business is building genuine relationships, as he personally visited three gyms every day for three years to meet potential customers, proving that consistent human connection outperforms any paid marketing strategy. He also emphasizes leveraging social media to level the playing field, noting that a strong personal brand and winning attitude can make a C-class location just as successful as an A-class one, which he demonstrated by growing Omaha Protein Popcorn to over 30,000 stores across 16 countries. For direct mentorship and structured business guidance, Tim offers Rexius Business Consulting at timrexius.com, where he coaches entrepreneurs on scaling, franchising, and turning employees into entrepreneurial partners using his proven Entrepreneur Creation Framework. What advice would you give yourself on day one of starting out in business? Tim Rexius would tell his day-one self to stop waiting for the perfect moment and instead start hustling immediately, because delivering pizzas at night and sanding floors on weekends while building his first store taught him that grit and relentless action will always outwork privilege and perfect timing. He would also remind himself that it is far easier to turn customers into friends than friends into customers, so invest every ounce of energy into showing up, meeting people, and projecting a winning attitude — because the right mindset attracts the right opportunities. Book a 20-minute Growth Chat with Troy Trewin to see if you qualify for our upcoming course. Don't miss out on this opportunity to take your small business to new heights! Enjoyed the podcast? Please leave a review on iTunes or your preferred platform. Your feedback helps more small business owners discover our podcast and embark on their business growth journey.     Quotable quotes from our special Grow A Small Business podcast guest: It's a lot easier to turn customers into friends than friends into customers — Tim Rexius You can have a C-class location but an A-class person, and still build a wildly successful business — Tim Rexius People really want to be surrounded by winners, so put on a winning attitude and watch the right opportunities find you — Tim Rexius  

Welcome back to the tenth season of the Eccles Business Buzz podcast. Today, guest-host Annesley Womble returns for a conversation with Colin Wright, Owner of Cole West Group, a real estate development group focused on developing master-planned communities, residential lots, urban infill communities and mixed-use properties throughout Utah. Wright traces his path from studying finance at the University of Utah, where real estate classes sparked his interest, to earning a master's in real estate development at Columbia University in New York, where he learned the private equity joint-venture model. When family and a great job opportunity brought him back to Utah, Wright found himself facing the Great Financial Crisis after leaving Ivory Homes too early. After pivoting to help build the University of Utah's Master of Real Estate Development curriculum, he taught classes to survive. Wright shares insights on timing, real estate cycles, partnerships, leadership, and scaling while reflecting on family pressures, Amy Chua's “Triple Package” framework, aspirations for campus and student housing, and his commitment to developing leaders, strengthening faith and family, and creating lasting impact.Eccles Business Buzz is a production of the David Eccles School of Business and is produced by University.fm.Eccles Business Buzz is proud to be selected by FeedSpot as one of the Top 70 Business School podcasts on the web. Learn more at https://podcast.feedspot.com/us_business_school_podcasts. Episode Quotes:On learning to become a better leader of people[21:41] I talked a little bit about, I think God made me to be an entrepreneur, deal maker, and I'm learning to be a good manager. So, as I started Cole West, same thing happened over again. I'm an entrepreneur. I'm growing. I started with three people. Next thing I know, I've got 30 people, and I'm back into this rut of, you know, managing HR problems versus doing deals. And that's when Darlene Carter, who we'd worked with previously, she came back and really helped fill that role of being an integrator and put me back in the seat of being a little bit more of an innovator, which is where I'm more comfortable.But every day I wake up, and I try to be a better integrator. I'm not giving up on, "Hey, you're just not a good leader. It's not natural to you." I wake up every day trying to be a better leader of people, and frankly, I think I have gotten a lot better just through effort, and attention, and study, and patience.Colin shares lessons from the Great Financial Crisis that shaped his company[15:07] So, I learned a ton about real estate cycles. It was the first one I really got to observe. My dad and Ellis Ivory lived through many in the '80s, and '90s, and 2000s, and they warned me and told me what it would be like 2006 to 2009. I watched it from the sidelines. And then 2022 to 2025, I lived it by having real estate investments. Personally, it was really hard. Couldn't pay the bills, you know, some kids and house payments, and it was really hard. I learned I wasn't ready, and that led me to a partnership with three other individuals. And I've always compared it to like a Madden score. If you're playing basketball or football on the Xbox, the players have a score from zero to 100. And in 2006, going into the GFC, I would guess my Madden score was like a 35 or 40. I thought it was 80 or 90, but it was probably a 35 or 40. And the way to survive coming out of that was to find three business partners who had complementing skill sets, where collectively we could be 100. And that was a good step for me, that if you're not an 80 or a 90 or 100, and you want to go into business, find some business partners that complement your Madden score so that you can get close to 100 and try to be successful, and that's what we did. So, we started a company, and the distress that was caused by the GFC, we started buying land and lots in Utah and Colorado, and we started a home builder called Henry Walker Homes. So, it was very entrepreneurial, three other partners, and we just went at it all together to try to work our way out of the Great Financial Crisis.Colin on President Randall's leadership & the U's world-class business education today[30:11] What President Randall has done over the past five years of, you know, you've got to put beds on campus, which he's doing an amazing job of, and then just the quality of learning at the U of U business school. I'm on the board at the business school. It's just amazing, the professors, the curriculum, the dean. It's just an amazing experience. It doesn't feel anything like it did when I was there. The kids, the energy, the entrepreneurs, the mentors, they have the access to these real estate classes. I mean, it is world-class. I firmly believe that.Show Links:Colin Wright | LinkedInCole West Group | AboutMaster of Real Estate Development | David Eccles Business SchoolDavid Eccles School of Business (@ubusiness) | InstagramUndergraduate Scholars ProgramsRising Business LeadersEccles Alumni Network (@ecclesalumni) | Instagram Eccles Experience Magazine

It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution at Barclays, and solicit his insights on change – in markets, in client relationships and in the growing role of technology across the financial ecosystem. We begin with Ronnie's early years at Goldman Sachs during the final stages of the technology bubble and the sharp market reversal that followed. He reflects on how periods of market stress, from the post-dot-com bear market to the GFC, have shaped his perspective on risk and the importance of being adaptable in markets that are constantly moving. The conversation then turns to the changing structure of institutional investing. Ronnie discusses the growth of hedge funds in pursuit of industrial-scale alpha generation, highlighting how client needs have become increasingly cross-asset, and solutions-oriented. He explains how a sell-side equities business today functions as an integrated ecosystem that spans prime brokerage, derivatives, electronic trading, and financing. A major theme throughout the discussion is the accelerating pace of technological change. Ronnie describes recent experiences using AI development tools and outlines how firms are integrating them into workflows ranging from onboarding and automation to research distribution and client analytics. We also explore the rise of bespoke and OTC solutions, including quantitative investment strategies, custom baskets, and exotic option structures. Here Ronnie emphasizes that these products reflect broader changes in market structure, positioning, and risk transfer across institutional portfolios. The conversation concludes with thoughts on recruiting, apprenticeship culture, and the need for firms to balance human judgment with increasingly sophisticated technological infrastructure.

While the market's gaze is fixed on the horizon, the ground beneath quality stocks has shifted, delivering the toughest period of performance since the lead-up to the GFC. But as the saying goes, “it's always darkest before dawn.” In this episode of The Rules of Investing, James Abela explains why it is critical to have a process for navigating challenging markets, and highlights the bright spots, both globally and on the ASX, that are presenting a breadth of opportunities in small and mid-cap companies.

Season 7, Episode 5: How did RREAF Holdings grow into a $4.8B real estate platform across multifamily, hospitality, BTR, and master-planned communities? Today, we sit down with Kip Sowden, Chairman & CEO of RREAF Holdings, and Doug McKnight, President of RREAF Holdings, to break down the strategy behind the firm's growth across the Sun Belt. Kip shares how he moved from brokerage into principal investing after the GFC, while Doug explains how his fixed income background shaped RREAF's approach to capital, risk, and liquidity. The conversation covers distressed acquisitions after 2008, bridge lender opportunities today, and why RREAF focuses on “all things residential” across the South and Southeast. Kip and Doug also break down their approach to multifamily, extended stay hotels, beachfront resorts, and large-scale Texas developments, while sharing why they believe a new real estate cycle is beginning. Shoutout to our sponsor, Henry AI. The fast track to investor-ready decks that actually stand out. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction 03:45 – Kip Sowden's Early Career in Brokerage and Mortgage Banking 09:28 – Moving Into Principal Investing and Launching RREAF 17:03 – Buying Distressed Notes and REO After the GFC 24:17 – Structuring $500M+ Multifamily Portfolio Deals 30:29 – Master-Planned Communities, BTR, and Texas Growth 36:39 – Why RREAF Is Bullish on Extended Stay Hotels 42:26 – Why RREAF Focuses on the South and Southeast 47:45 – Institutional Capital Returning to CRE 54:30 – Where RREAF Sees Opportunity in the Next Cycle For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Season 7, Episode 4: How does a firm managing $17 billion navigate global real estate through high interest rates and a "hope-driven" market? Today, we sit down with Tim Mooney, partner and global head of real estate and Jim Dunbar, partner and head of real estate lending at Värde Partners. They break down how Värde operates across the capital stack, from senior lending and structured credit to niche equity platforms in student housing and medical offices. Tim and Jim share how their "distress roots" from the GFC shaped their current strategy of building sector-specific operating platforms like Trimont. They explain why today's cycle is a "slow trickle" compared to 2008, the reality of the upcoming maturity wall, and how they are synthetically creating mezzanine returns. Whether you're curious about AI's impact on real estate demand or looking for insights into international markets like India and Europe, this episode is a masterclass in institutional credit. Join us for an unfiltered look at the conviction and data-driven discipline required to manage a global alternative investment platform in today's cycle. Shoutout to our sponsor, Henry AI. The fast track to investor-ready decks that actually stand out. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction to Värde Partners 05:58 – Tim Mooney and Jim Dunbar's Backgrounds 10:05 – The Trimont Acquisition and Data Advantage 13:00 – Värde's Current Strategy: Staying Senior in the Stack 15:51 – Case Study: Repurposing Distressed New York Assets 22:44 – Lessons from the GFC vs. Today's "Hope-Driven" Market 30:50 – Middle Market Lending and Creating Synthetic Returns 34:26 – The Case for Medical Office and Student Housing Platforms 41:16 – AI Disruption and the Future of Productivity 45:15 – International Complexity: Lending in India and Europe For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and the collapsing consumer, revealing credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now at Great Financial Crisis levels while the economy has shifted from K-shaped to "i-shaped" with only a tiny dot at the top. He explains his letter "The Gambler" addresses how younger investors have abandoned real investing for a betting culture of sports gambling, one-day options, and Bitcoin, while most advisors no longer know when to "hold 'em or fold 'em." Ted maintains 50% cash in short-term treasuries, predicts inflation will hit 4.25% in May rising to 4.75% by fall with financial repression as the only way out of the debt trap, and reveals energy is his largest position up 35% year-to-date despite being only 3% of the S&P (it was 33% in 1980). He expects energy to rip like gold and silver did last year since nobody owns it yet, outlines his "well to the end" strategy covering producers to pipelines to rigs, confirms we're in early innings of a commodity super cycle, and warns speculation will continue pushing until a recession breaks the momentum. Ted draws parallels to 1999 when shorts got killed for nine more months, sees no recession on the horizon yet to break the fever, and cautions that baby boomers age 65+ hold more stock than ever in history making them the worst positioned he's ever seen for the eventual wealth transfer.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Ted Oakley returns, founder of Oxbow Advisors0:56 Two different things - Wall Street vs. the economy1:42 Consumer keeps falling apart - Credit card delinquencies at GFC levels2:24 K-shaped economy becoming more like an "i-shaped" economy3:32 "The Gambler" letter - Younger investors just betting, not investing4:02 Betting culture - Sports betting, one-day options, Bitcoin5:21 Know when to hold them, know when to fold them5:39 Cash position at 50% in short-term treasuries6:41 Long bond move - Topped 5.19% on 30-year6:57 Late 70s/early 80s parallel - Inflation went from 5% to 18%7:49 Are bond vigilantes coming back?7:54 Bond market eventually rules everything8:21 Expectation of more inflation ahead8:27 May CPI could come in at 4.25% or higher, 4.5-4.75% by fall9:30 Financial repression is the only way out10:36 Can't see how Fed cuts rates at all11:09 Asset holders benefited from inflation but that changes in linear inflation12:18 Energy is largest position - Up 35% vs. S&P's 20%13:11 Big tech stocks barely up from November/December levels13:41 Semiconductors probably at high for next 5 years14:34 Energy dramatically underweight in portfolios - Only 3% of S&P15:03 1980: Energy was 33% of S&P15:54 Energy names - Well to the end strategy16:53 Producers, midstream, rigs - The whole package17:34 Where we are in commodity cycle - Early innings18:38 Commodity positions - Rio Tinto, Vale, uranium, antimony, critical minerals19:18 Oil price and energy thesis20:16 AutoZone warning on motor oil shortages coming20:54 Precious metals positioning today21:54 Gold could go to $4,000 or $3,800 - Shake out momentum players23:12 1999 parallel - Momentum could continue 9 more months24:19 No recession on horizon - Need that to break momentum25:14 Speculative nature pushes until recession breaks it25:51 Second Generation Wealth - Massive wealth transfer concerns26:31 Baby boomers 65+ have most stock in assets ever in history27:22 Closing thoughts

What happens to your dental practice when life throws you a curveball? Not a minor inconvenience - a genuine crisis. Health problems, family emergencies, the kind of stuff that stops you in your tracks. For most practice owners, that's the moment they discover whether their business is a life raft or a dead weight. And the difference, as Jesse shares in this episode, comes down to what you built before the storm hit.Dental practice financial resilience isn't just about having a rainy day fund. It's about systems - the ones that keep running when you can't. In this episode, Jesse unpacks a real story from a friend who nearly lost it all, breaks down the gaps that almost sank them, and shares practical strategies for price-shopping calls, economic downturns, and reclaiming your agency as a practice owner.In This Episode:00:44 Why one practice owner's personal crisis became the ultimate stress test for their business01:16 The four financial systems that kept the wheels turning when the owner couldn't show up01:53 The slow leaks hiding in your practice right now that aren't screaming for attention02:44 Why price-shopping phone calls are actually buying signals, and how your reception team might be misreading them03:06 The difference between a script and a framework04:06 How to handle the "how much is a crown?" call in a way that books appointments instead of losing them06:38 What practising through recessions, the GFC, and COVID has taught Jesse about financial resilience07:29 The danger of dental Facebook groups during tough economic times08:25 Why your business results are more within your control than you think — and the skills you need to start building now.Links & Resources:Episode 548 — The Four Financial Systems for Dental Practices Join the free Savvy Dentist Facebook GroupFollow Dr Jesse Green on LinkedInVisit Savvy Dentist websiteMentioned in this episode:Savvy Dentist Team Training BundleIf your practice can't run without you, it's time for systems - not more theory. That's why we created the Savvy Dentist Team Training Bundle - five powerful, system-driven programs including Front Desk All Stars, the Million Dollar Dentist, Practice Manager Masterclass, Advanced Treatment Coordinator Training, and High-Performance Hygiene. Each course delivers practical, step-by-step systems your team can use every day to build accountability and create a self-managing practice. Save $2,000 for a limited time — visit savvydentist.com/team-training.Team Training Bundle 2025

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comMike Green has become famous for his work empirically proving that net positive passive capital flows have predominantly been responsible for the strong performance of stocks since the GFC.He has also warned that should those flows weaken, or even turn negative, stock prices will start moving in reverse.And he's starting to see early signs that they may indeed be starting to falter?When will that matter?And what will that really mean for markets?To find out, watch this video#passiveinvesting #retirementplanning #capitalflows _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Season 7, Episode 3: How did ACRE grow from a post-GFC workforce housing thesis into a global real estate investment firm? Today, we sit down with Michael Van Der Poel, Founding Partner at ACRE, to break down the strategy behind that rise. Michael shares how he spotted workforce housing before it became an institutional trade, and how ACRE built its early portfolio by buying distressed multifamily assets at deeply discounted prices. We also get into raising capital from Asia, building a vertically integrated platform, and expanding across both equity and credit strategies. Whether you're interested in capital raising, private credit, or where real estate opportunity sits in today's cycle, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we dive into the conviction, timing, and risk discipline that helped ACRE grow from a scrappy startup into an institutional investment platform. Shoutout to our sponsor, Henry AI. The fast track to investor-ready decks that actually stand out. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction 02:17 – Michael Van Der Poel's Background and Early Real Estate Career 06:55 – ACRE's Workforce Housing Thesis After the GFC 09:56 – Raising the First Fund and Buying Distressed Multifamily 15:00 – Building ACRE's Credit Platform 21:13 – Why ACRE Plays Across Equity, Credit, and Development 23:21 – Pricing Equity Risk and Finding Returns in Today's Market 38:50 – Rental Housing, AI Disruption, and the Future of Jobs 41:03 – Where ACRE Sees Opportunity Right Now 46:19 – Multifamily Outlook and the Next Buying Window For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

The term premium — investors' compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and central banks' balance sheets. The New York Fed's Adrian, Crump, and Mönch model estimates the 10-year Treasury term premium is higher than before the pandemic but substantially lower than it was pre- GFC. The post-pandemic term premium will shape the path of longer-term Treasuries as bond investors consider what the new normal looks like. In this episode, we talk with Emanuel Mönch, Professor of Financial and Monetary Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, about the models estimating the term premium, what's driven changes over the last forty years, and how it could shift under a Warsh-led Fed.

In this episode, Chris sits down with Matthew Ogle, Co-founder & CEO of Legacy Knight, a $2.8B multi-family office in Dallas, TX that he co-founded in 2019. We dig into how you build a world-class multi-family office from scratch - and why so many wealthy families out there don't actually have one yet. Matthew's path into wealth management didn't start in a boardroom - it started on a tennis court. A summer teaching tennis to a CIO's family at Cape Cod opened the first door, which led him to Credit Suisse's private bank through the GFC and then five years at the Crow family office, helping transform it into one of the first true multi-family offices in Dallas. He opened Legacy Knight's doors in October 2019 with $2.5M of operating capital, 14 seed families, and a contrarian bet - that the new generation of sub-50-year-old entrepreneurs hitting their first liquidity event needed something the bulge brackets couldn't offer. Six years later, Legacy Knight manages over $3B and was named the fastest-growing RIA in Texas. Chris and Matthew go deep on what it actually takes to build a multi-family office the right way - the technology, the hiring, the legacy conversations with families, and why Matthew refuses to grow by acquiring other books of business. They discuss: Why every hire at Legacy Knight comes out of the family office world, not from the bulge brackets How most $100M+ families are still running their wealth on a Google Doc and a handshake with their accountant Why "do nothing in the year after a liquidity event" is half good advice and half terrible advice The most creative things Matthew has seen ultra-wealthy families do with their capital How Matthew thinks about his own kids, legacy, and when to start the wealth conversation Links: Legacy Knight - https://legacyknight.com/ Matthew on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-ogle-ab11873/ Topics: (02:01) Matthew's First Exposure to Wealth Management (07:58) Joining Credit Suisse (Pre-GFC): Why the "Bulge Bracket" Mattered, How the Private Banking Associate Model Works (13:08) Why Credit Suisse Failed to Serve Ultra-High-Net-Worth Families (20:07) The First Client Meeting: Soft-Tissue Questions (28:57) Tax Timing and Mitigation Strategies (37:57) The Founding Thesis: People and Platform (Building Legacy Knight) (44:46) The Decision to Launch Legacy Knight Independently (54:43) Fundraising Lessons: Managing Expectations and The Importance of Pitch Order (01:01:18) The Full-Service Family Office Model (01:06:24) What a Vertically Integrated Family Office Actually Includes (01:09:07) Proactive Investment Sourcing (01:13:02) Next-Gen Engagement and Family Legacy Planning: How to Involve Children Appropriately (01:21:46) Matthew's Hiring Philosophy (01:30:05) Time as the Hidden Cost of Unstructured Wealth Support our Sponsors: Collateral Partners: https://collateral.com/fort Chris on Social Media: X: https://x.com/fortworthchris Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thepowerspodcast LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrispowersjr/ Visit our website: https://www.powerspod.com/ Leave a review on Apple: https://bit.ly/45crFD0 Leave a review on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3Krl9jO

My guest today is Alan Waxman, co-founder and CEO of Sixth Street, a $130B global investment firm. Private credit is one of the most discussed topics in markets right now, and there is a lot to make sense of. The current discourse is almost entirely focused on symptoms. Alan Waxman has spent the time diagnosing the root cause. Alan thinks about the financial system the way a historian would, studying the incentives, guardrails, and market structure that determine how things play out. In this conversation, he traces the evolution of American finance from the 1929 crash through Glass-Steagall, the GFC, and Basel III to explain how we arrived at what he calls the factory model, the industrialization of liability-gathering and asset deployment that he believes is the root cause of everything happening in private markets today. This is my second conversation with Alan, our first one is one of my favorites from last year.  For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.  ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Vanta. Trusted by thousands of businesses, Vanta continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Visit vanta.com/invest.  ----- This episode is brought to you by ⁠WorkOS⁠. WorkOS is a developer platform that enables SaaS companies to quickly add enterprise features to their applications. Visit ⁠WorkOS.com⁠ to transform your application into an enterprise-ready solution in minutes, not months. ----- Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best (00:02:43) Intro: Alan Waxman (00:04:35) Financial System Guardrails & Incentives (00:05:56) System 1: Pre-1933 to 1999 (00:07:39) Glass-Steagall Legislation (00:10:46) Deregulation & Rise of System 2 (00:12:27) Leverage, GFC, and System 2's Collapse (00:14:25) Basel III, Dodd-Frank, and System 3 (00:15:32) Why System 3 Could Be the Best Ever (00:19:04) Behavioral Shifts Starting in 2018 (00:19:52) The Factory Model (00:24:33) Acceleration of Factory Model (00:28:25) FRE Multiples and GP Incentives (00:34:59) Wealth Channel & Asset-Liability Mismatches (00:36:15) Why This Won't be the Next GFC (00:45:31) AI, Creative Destruction & Opportunity  (00:49:35) Alan's One-Sheet Brain System (00:55:01) Lessons by Decade: Hui (00:59:28) Face the Tiger

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Global Head of Private Credit & Equity David Miller discuss the recent pressure on the private credit market, potential risks and opportunities that remain in that space.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. David Miller: And I'm David Miller, Global Head of Private Credit and Equity within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Vishy Tirupattur: Today – the evolving risks and opportunities in private credit. It's Tuesday, March 31st at 10 am In New York. Until recently, private credit was among the fast-growing parts of the financial system. In just over a decade, it went from a niche strategy to a market that's well worth over a trillion dollars. After years of outsized inflows and unusually smooth return, private credit is now in focus, and investors are asking tough questions about liquidity, transparency, and valuation. David, you manage private credit and equity portfolios within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Do you think the industry is facing its first real stress test? And how do you think the industry is faring? David Miller: So, I think private credit has been tested before, you could go back to the GFC. And I know that was a long time ago and the industry was quite a bit smaller. But you could certainly look to the pandemic and the rate shocks of [20]22 - [20]23 as a stress test. And I think private credit performed, you know, quite well through that, despite the initial volatility. We saw some of that recently last year with Liberation Day; and the current environment from a fundamental perspective doesn't feel as bad as those times, and the industry does not feel under that stress. I think the current situation is more of a test of the non-traded BDC structure where roughly 20 percent of direct lending assets sit. And the liquidity provisions in those vehicles are designed to provide some liquidity, but not total liquidity. And so, while I think the vehicles are working as intended, obviously there's been a lot of noise. Vishy Tirupattur: So, I totally agree with you, David. The liquidity provisions that are in these structures are there for a reason; are designed to be that. It's part of the feature and not a bug, precisely to prevent a fire sale of assets. And that really would hurt the overall system. So, we think that there's a greater understanding of this is very much required. David Miller: I think that's right. The limitations on liquidity are there so that the vehicles can operate properly over the long run. When you have illiquid assets, you maintain some liquidity. But clearly those protections are in place so that the vehicle continue to run in ordinary fashion. I think there is a bit of a disconnect, you know, in the media between the sentiment and the fundamentals that are underlying private credit. And yeah, there are concerns about software, and macro, and unseen future risks. But right now, private credit portfolios are performing pretty well. And actually, if you look at 2025 versus [20]24, the metrics were actually improving… Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. I mean, we look at across various metrics, you know, in leverage and coverage metrics, we see overall trends are actually improving. Software [is] very much in focus. Fitch reported, yesterday that, uh, in the last, uh, you know, year to date there have been no software defaults. Another point I would make is there are about 5 percent defaults in – generally speaking – in the private credit space. And the default rates within the software sector is a little bit less than half of that. So, that's an important distinction to make. David Miller: Yeah, I think software is a very interesting and long topic. But generally, our view is: we think that AI is going to be a net tailwind overall for software over time. You know, even factoring in some of the erosion to the SaaS business models, I think well positioned incumbents will get their share of the upside. And so there will be some losers. We think that'll be pretty narrow. But overall, we feel very good about our software book. We've been looking at AI risk for at least three years, when we made loans. And we think that a lot of the embedded enterprise software platforms are going to be net beneficiaries of AI. Vishy Tirupattur: I have slightly different take on the software exposure and all the discussion points on this. The way I think about it is the market assumption is that AI disruption is necessarily going to disrupt all of software companies. And that disruption is imminent. I would push back on both of those points. You know, you could easily imagine that AI will lead to some disruption at some point in the future. But a necessary thing for that to happen is a significant amount of CapEx related to infrastructure to enable AI from innovation to adoption that needs to take place. That will take some time. So, this potential disruption is not imminent. It's potentially coming in the future. But all in, disruption is also not going to be negative. You know, we will have some companies whose business models, who don't have the moats and may not be able to benefit. But on the other hand, as you point out, there will be a number of business models which will actually flourish because of AI adoption and see their margins expand. So, I think I would push back on this notion that's prevalent in the media narrative here. That all AI disruption is imminent and it is all bad. David Miller: I think that's a very good point, and we do believe that there will be dispersion and outcome in private credit portfolios because of some of those facts. And it's really important for managers to have deep experience, not just in software, but any industries that they participate in. And really do very strong credit selection. Vishy Tirupattur: So, another thing that's happening in the private credit space is really the advent of the retail investor into the private credit. What do you think the advent of retail investors had done to the portfolio selection, portfolio construction and credit selection in your portfolios? David Miller: So, for us, we haven't changed our portfolio construction or credit selection process for retail portfolios. They're virtually the same as our institutional portfolios. And that's, you know, based on a lot of diversification, limiting borrower concentration, avoiding cyclicals, et cetera. The one difference that's important for our non-traded BDC is we do have about 10 percent of the portfolio in broadly syndicated loans, to add a little bit more liquidity to the portfolio. But otherwise, they're pretty much the same. I think the biggest impact that we've witnessed over the past few years, where there's been a large inflow of retail capital, has been to push spreads tighter. And weaken some of the terms than they would've otherwise been. There was a lot of capital that needed to be deployed quickly, so we saw that and we're quite cautious. You're seeing that trend reverse now as flows have moderated, and we expect that those trends will result in better pricing and better terms going forward. So, Vishy, how are you thinking about risk in the system now? Are you seeing signs of systemic risk? Or is the pressure more isolated? Vishy Tirupattur: I think the pressure is really more isolated, more focused on the software sector. As we just discussed, it will take time to figure out the winners and losers coming out of this. But that process is really; we think will result in some pickup in default rates. But we think it'll be very concentrated within the software sector. So, when I look back at the systemic risks, the echoes of the financial crisis of 2008 come back, you know. We both have gone through that in different roles, you know. I used to be tall and good looking is before the financial crisis. So, the scars of financial crisis are clearly on upon me now. But I compare these two time periods – and I say in any metric, the risks in the system today are nowhere comparable to the kind of systemic risk that existed back then. You look at the risks, the leverage at the company level. You look at the leverage; the vehicles where credit risk is sitting. Look at the risks and the leverage within the banking system. And the links of the non-banks to banks. All of them put together make us think that the systemic risks are very, very contained. And any allusion to that ‘We are back in 2008,' I would very strongly push back against that illusion. So, David, let me ask you one final question here. If we had to highlight one risk or one opportunity in private credit for investors over the next year, what would it be? David Miller: I think the headlines have covered most of the risks, so I'll go with an opportunity. So, we believe spreads on private credit loans have widened quite a bit for direct lending. Both for non-software and software names. So, for investors looking to deploy new capital or investors who are underweight their target allocations, we think it's an interesting time. But we believe there's also a really nice opportunity in opportunistic or hybrid private credit. And that's coming from borrowers who need more flexible solutions, and that can come from M&A activity, non-dilutive growth capital. Or balance sheet rationalizations where one can inject junior capital to good businesses that have over-levered balance sheets. And you can get paid well for the flexibility and the optionality that's providing equity holders. There's been far less capital raised for these types of opportunities over the last few years, and they're pretty favorable dynamics going forward as demand increases. Vishy Tirupattur: That's very insightful. David, thanks for taking the time to talk. David Miller: Great speaking with you, Vishy. Vishy Tirupattur: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.David Miller is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research department. Unless otherwise indicated, his views are his own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Andrew Sheets and Head of U.S. Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar discuss what's driving record debt issuance and growing worries about private credit.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Vishwas Patkar: And I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: And today on the program, we're going to talk about two of the biggest questions facing global credit markets. A rush of issuance and questions around private credit.It's Friday, March 27th at 2pm in London.Vishwas, it's great to have you in town, talking over what I think are two of the biggest questions that are hanging over the global credit market. A large wave of issuance and a lot of questions around a segment of that market, often known as private credit.So, let's dig into those in turn. I want to start with issuance. You know, you and your team had a pretty aggressive forecast at the start of the year, for a significant level of supply. How's that going? How is it shaping out? We're now almost through the first quarter…Vishwas Patkar: Yeah. So, we came into the year expecting a record, [$]2.25 trillion of gross issuance in investment grade. That's 25 percent higher than last year. That would mark a record one year number for investment grade. And for the high yield market, we expected about [$]400 billion of issuance; up roughly 30 percent.If I were to mark to market those, the forecast is roughly playing out as expected through mid-March. IG issuance is up about 21 percent. High yield issuance is up about 25 percent. So far at least, it's along the lines of what we'd call for. More importantly though, when I think about the drivers of the issuance, that I think in some ways is a little more validating. Because there were two big components of what was going to drive the issuance.One was AI related issuance from the large hyperscalers, and the second was a decent uptick in M&A. And we've seen both of those. So, year-to-date, we've had north of [$]80 billion of issuance from hyperscalers alone in the dollar market. That's on top of significant non-USD issuance that we've had this year.So, I think this idea of AI CapEx investments and by extension issuance being somewhat agnostic to macro, that seems to be playing out so far.Andrew Sheets: So, let's talk a little bit more about that – because, you know, this is a new development. This kind of is a new regime to have this much supply, sort of, somewhat independent of a very volatile macro backdrop.And you know, maybe if you could talk just a little bit more about what we're learning about the issuers. What do they care about? What is bringing them to market? And then maybe what would cause them to slow down or speed up?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, I think we've learned a couple of things, right? First is – this issuance is being driven by investments that are not opportunistic, right? They are competitive in nature. Clearly there is an arms race to figure out who will win the AI race.I think a second leg of it is the issuance is somewhat spread agnostic. So, you know, in credit we look at this metric called new issue concessions, which is effectively how much is a company paying in terms of excess funding costs relative to their bonds outstanding. And what we've seen with some of the larger deals is that new issue concessions are well above average.And that's pretty important in the grand scheme of things because, you know, we're talking about one sector that is driving AI infrastructure. But when you have issuance that comes in size, and it comes wide to where existing bonds are, we think that has knock-on effects repricing other companies that are downstream of those names.Andrew Sheets: So, we have a market for issuing corporate debt that's pretty wide open. You know, as you mentioned, very high levels of issuance and supply going through, despite what would've been a lot of concerns. And one of those concerns is the conflict in Iran.But another concern that's been cropping up is a concern around this market often known as private credit where you've seen a lot of focus, a lot of headlines, volatility in some of the managers of private credit. But also, I think this is an area where less is known. And where there's still a lot of confusion about what it is and how it's performing.So, for the second set of questions, Vishwas, maybe we could just start with, you know, when you think about private credit, what is it to you? And how do you break up the market?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so I think at a very high level, you can think about private credit as capital that is provided by non-bank lenders. And in some ways – that is not broadly syndicated. So it's different from investment grade bonds or high yield bonds or leverage loans in that respect. You know, the second factor I laid out.You know, private credit overarchingly is a big umbrella term. It includes direct lending to businesses. It includes infrastructure finance, project finance, the private placement market, asset-based finance. So, there are a lot of subcomponents.Now, you know, to your point where the market's a little worried and there is growing anxiety is around the direct lending portion of private credit. That segment of the market has grown substantially over the last decade. It was about [$]500 billion or so 10 years ago. It's about [$]1.3 trillion right now.Andrew Sheets: And this is lending directly to companies?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah. This is lending directly to companies. Leverage typically tends to be higher than what you see in the public market. So, one of the challenges around navigating the risks are, you know, when you get a bunch of negative headlines that isn't necessarily the readily available information to either disprove or validate it.So, I think that's some of the anxiety, which is building among the investor base. Our view is, you know, these risks are significant and investors should be cognizant of what's happening.Andrew Sheets: So maybe just to take a step back a little bit there. Why have investors been more worried about the private credit space?Have we seen particular events? Or is it more, kind of, other factors that you think have driven this increased focus?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, I think it's been a rolling set of factors. This year the whole story has really been about software and concerns about AI disruption. But before I get into that, I think it was a process that really began, I would say, second half of last year.So, private credit really had its moment in the sun a few years ago where inflows were massive. The public market was choppy while the Fed was hiking rates, and a lot of stressed issuers were choosing to raise capital via direct lenders. And at that time, spreads in the private credit market were also very attractive.What you've seen last year is private credit AUM was effectively flat. The fee income being generated on the loans has come down as the Fed has eased policy and the spread on private credit versus the public market has also narrowed. So, what started off, I think, was more macro. It was driven more by what was happening on the policy front…Andrew Sheets: More yield compression. Less yield for investors, which caused them to be just a little bit less attracted to the space…Vishwas Patkar: Absolutely, yeah. And I think that was largely the driver of, you know, the correction in some of these asset manager stocks to begin with. Then you had some of the headlines around specific single name headlines. Double pledging of collateral, some accounting malpractices, which, you know, I think we can say with the benefit of hindsight, those were idiosyncratic. Those were one offs. But again, you know, doesn't make for a positive headline when you get news flow to that effect.And then this year, as I said, it's really been about concerns around the software sector…Andrew Sheets: Which is a very big part of the private credit market.Vishwas Patkar: It is a very big part of the private credit market. It made up for almost a third of all LBOs that were originated between 2018 through 2022. And in fact, really if you look at 2021, when interest rates were very low, a lot of the outstanding software loans were originated in those really weak vintages.And so, you know, I think AI disruption has maybe been the catalyst to drive some of this price action. But that's on top of software, where a lot of loans were originated with high leverage. But now that, you know, you have a very disruptive force around margins, potentially looming, the concern has now shifted towards what do balance sheets look like. And the software sector is very levered. In the bank loan market, for example, more than 50 percent of software loans outstanding are rated B- or lower.And one extension of that is that, you know, you have a non-trivial amount of debt that is maturing in the next few years. So, through 2028, we see about [$]65 billion of software loans maturing largely in that lower quality cohort.So, you know, even before we get clarity around how AI will diffuse and disrupt or will not disrupt these names, the issue is really refinancing. In this period of uncertainty, will all these software loans over the next 12 to 18 months – will they have the capital to term out their maturities?Andrew Sheets: So, Vishwas, maybe just in closing, as you're going around and talking to credit investors at the moment, what do you think are the two or three biggest, kind of, high level takeaways and views that you're trying to get across?Vishwas Patkar: A few things I would say. So, specifically on private credit, we are saying that, you know, I think we are in for a period where returns might be subpar. It is possible that private credit sees AUM growth that is sluggish, maybe even down year-over-year this year. But we would not conflate that with something that's systemic. And I think it's very important to lay that out. But importantly, some of the linkages to the banking system are through, you know, leverage that is significantly lower in this cycle than what we've seen in the past, say prior to the GFC. So that's one.Second, I continue to think that the aspect of issuance being very high and somewhat agnostic to macro conditions, that's been validated so far. And when I look at what credit markets are priced for, in aggregate, we think valuations are still too tight. And that's not withstanding everything that's going on in the Middle East.You know, we clearly have a commodity price shock to navigate. And that can have a feedback loop via what central banks will do. And the U.S. consumer. But I would say just the convexity of credit is very weak. If, let's say, we get a…Andrew Sheets: Limited upside versus relative to more downside…Vishwas Patkar: Very limited upside. And downside, if we get both a technical and a fundamental – and why it is, is significant.And the third thing I would say is it makes sense to own hedges here. You know, again, hedges can be expensive, can lead to loss of carry. But they can also be a very efficient way to protect yourself. And if you look at this time last year in the lead up to Liberation Day, credit had held up really well for the first, say, five or six weeks of that sell off.But then when it moved, it moved very quickly. And in some ways, you know, if you; if investors were able to protect themselves through that last leg of volatility, that effectively provided a very good entry point to capture the rally that played out thereafter.Andrew Sheets: Vishwas. I think that's a great thing to keep in mind. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishwas Patkar: Alright. Thank you for having me, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. 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