Podcasts about gfc

In this episode, Andy Tanner sits down with Scott Bok to explore the highs, lows, and hard-won wisdom from over four decades in finance. Bok shares insights from his book Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing, diving into five major market crises, the evolution of M&A, and the psychological resilience required to not just survive—but thrive—on Wall Street.Mentioned In This Episode:- Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing by Scott Bok- Wharton School of Business-you Long-Term Capital Management- The Dot-Com Bust, 2008 GFC, COVID Crash- Buffett, Volcker, Greenspan, Schiller, and moreCall to Action:- Grab Scott's book on Amazon: https://a.co/d/cewwEn6 - Want to make a quantum leap in your investing education? Visit YourInvestingClass.com

Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment Insights from Paul Fiorilla, Director of U.S. Research at Yardi Matrix   Paul Fiorilla offers a data-driven view of today's commercial real estate (CRE) landscape using the vast resources he has at his disposal at Yardi.   While market sentiment may be growing more optimistic, Fiorilla acknowledges investors should separate short-term mood from long-term fundamentals. His perspective, rooted in close analysis of multifamily data and macro conditions, is both pragmatic and cautionary: yes, there's capital on the sidelines and deals are getting done but many investors may be misreading the durability of recent tailwinds and underestimating latent risks.   Short-Term Confidence, Long-Term Industry   Real estate is an inherently long-term, illiquid asset class yet, much of the current market behavior appears to be anchored in short-term confidence (and short term memories). That dissonance should give investors pause. While macroeconomic shocks like tariffs, interest rate hikes, and political uncertainty do not immediately register in quarterly CRE data, their effects compound over time.   Investor sentiment, meanwhile, remains buoyant. Debt markets have resumed activity, stock indices are back near prior highs, and many assume the worst is behind us. But the lagging nature of real estate data means we're still months away from fully seeing the impacts of recent fiscal and geopolitical developments.   Multifamily Fundamentals: A Shifting Landscape   Fiorilla addresses the fundamentals of the multifamily sector, noting that demand has remained strong in recent years, but the distribution of that demand is shifting. Rent growth is no longer universal. Over the past 15 months, metros in the Midwest and Northeast, markets like Chicago and New York, have consistently posted moderate, steady rent growth. In contrast, high-growth Sunbelt cities such as Austin, Atlanta, Nashville, and Salt Lake City are experiencing flat to negative rent trends.   What's driving this bifurcation is primarily supply. In oversupplied markets, absorption hasn't kept pace with new deliveries. Despite a sharp national decline in starts, down approximately 40% year-over-year, the existing pipeline remains heavy. Nationally, over 1.2 million units are either in lease-up or under construction. In high-growth markets, deliveries will continue at elevated levels for the next several years. Some cities may see 12–15% added to their multifamily inventory by 2027.   Fiorilla underscores that while national numbers suggest a tapering of supply, the local realities are more complex. Markets that arguably need more housing, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago for example, are seeing similar slowdowns in new development as oversaturated markets. The result is a continued misalignment between where capital is building and where it's most needed.   The Waning Tailwinds of Demand   Fiorilla also points to softening demand drivers that may soon undermine current assumptions. Over the past several years, demand has been supported by several powerful tailwinds: robust job growth, high immigration, and pandemic-era trends such as household formation and suburban relocation. But these are now tapering.   Net immigration, while still meaningful, is slowing. Job growth has begun to decelerate. Moreover, federal employment cuts and delays in private-sector hiring – driven by political and fiscal uncertainty – are contributing to a weakening outlook for household formation. These are not necessarily signs of imminent distress, but they do suggest that the extraordinary absorption rates of 2021–2022 will be difficult to sustain.   As Fiorilla puts it, “the risks are to the downside.” He's not forecasting a collapse but cautions against overreliance on recent performance when underwriting future deals, particularly in light of ongoing supply pressure.   Policy Risk and the Fragility of Subsidized Housing   Among the more underappreciated risks in the market, Fiorilla emphasizes policy risk, especially in affordable and subsidized housing. He notes that while programs like LIHTC and Opportunity Zones appear safe, others such as Section 8 are under pressure.   Of particular concern are proposals to convert these programs into state-administered block grants. While this may seem like a technocratic shift, it would represent a material change for property owners. Federal guarantees would be replaced by varying state-level funding regimes, increasing payment risk and reducing the predictability that underpins underwriting in the subsidized housing sector. For owners reliant on these programs, even modest payment disruptions could be “catastrophic,” he notes.   Interest Rate Volatility: The Real Pain Point   Turning to capital markets, Fiorilla distinguishes between the level of interest rates and the pace at which they change. Today's rates, he argues, are not historically high. Pre-GFC, rates were often at similar levels. What's destabilizing is the speed of change. A sharp increase from near-zero to 4–5% within a single year has impaired refinancing feasibility and upended underwriting assumptions.   This volatility, not the rates themselves, has created most of the current distress. Borrowers facing refinancing at double or triple the prior coupon are under strain. And yet, transaction activity persists, with many deals still pricing at thin or even negative leverage. Why? Because the #1 driver of compressed cap rates is investor confidence in future cash flows. The belief that rents will continue to rise justifies aggressive pricing – until it doesn't.   This mindset echoes pre-GFC sentiment, where rent growth was taken as a given. Fiorilla is quick to clarify that today's market is not nearly as reckless. Still, elevated pricing in an environment of cooling fundamentals could leave investors dangerously exposed to even mild shocks.   Quiet Distress and the Maturity Wall   Another issue masked by short-term optimism is the growing volume of loan maturities. These include both regularly scheduled maturities and loans previously extended during 2021–2023 that are now reaching their end.   Fiorilla notes that many of these are being addressed quietly. Lenders, reluctant to force asset sales, are working with borrowers on a case-by-case basis. The result: distress is real, but it's largely invisible. There's little evidence of forced portfolio liquidations or widespread delinquencies – yet.   The availability of capital, particularly for multifamily, is helping to buffer these pressures. There's no shortage of dry powder. But absent a sharp rate reversal or improved clarity from policymakers, the sector could see a slow bleed of marginal deals rather than a systemic reset.   Underappreciated Geopolitical Risk   One of the most thought-provoking parts of the conversation concerns CRE's growing sensitivity to global and political dynamics. This is a structural change. The U.S. has long benefited from its role as a stable, rule-of-law jurisdiction. But shifts in foreign policy, trade restrictions, and political dysfunction are beginning to weigh on foreign investment.   Declining Canadian cross-border investment and tighter restrictions on visa travel are, in part, evidence of this shift. These aren't headline stories but they are meaningful. If the U.S. loses its perception as a reliable haven for capital, CRE pricing could face downward pressure from shrinking foreign demand. This is a long-term trend worth monitoring closely, not a transitory blip.   What He's Watching   When asked what indicators he watches most closely, Fiorilla points to three primary metrics: Occupancy Rates – Particularly in high-supply markets. Stabilized occupancy below 94% would be an early warning sign. Absorption Trends – A sustained drop in household formation or leasing activity could signal weakening demand. Employment Data – Job losses, especially if broad-based, would ripple into rent growth and occupancy. He also monitors transaction volume as a proxy for investor confidence. If deal flow freezes again, that would signal a recalibration of forward expectations.   Final Reflection   While Fiorilla resists giving investment advice, his closing thoughts reflect a conservative posture. He's not sitting on the sidelines entirely but he's not rushing in either. Caution, portfolio balance, and realistic expectations are the guiding principles.   For CRE professionals, this conversation is a reminder to look past sentiment and dig into the data and the fundamentals: local supply pipelines, policy shifts, interest rate trends, and the fragility of assumptions underpinning future rent growth. The macro backdrop is far from stable and the margin for error, even in multifamily, may be thinner than it appears.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Michael Kim is the Founder of Cendana Capital, a fund of funds that makes anchor investments in very early stage VC funds.We talk characteristics of the best investors, how Cendana does diligence on fund managers, portfolio construction best practices, Michael's “60x rule”, and why high ownership to fund size is the main driver of returns.We also get in to how VCs are using AI, the competition between Seed and multi-stage investors, why US endowments are under siege, and how secondaries are driving most early stage venture returns today.Michael also opens up about the early days of starting Cendana, the 18 month grind raising Cendana Fund 1, the day he almost died, and ranking in the top 2% globally in Call of Duty.Special thanks to Roger Ehrenberg, Kevin Hartz, Semil Shah, Jeff Claviar, Beezer Clarkson, Jack Altman, Jeff Morris Jr, Sheel Mohnot, Nichole Wischoff, Ted Alling, and Rick Zullo for their help putting this episode together.Thanks to Bolt for supporting this episode. Check out their world record largest (up to $1m in prizes) at: https://bit.ly/ThePeelBoltHackathonTimestamps:(4:24) The day Michael almost died(5:10) Call of Duty & video games(9:34) Hiring @ Cendana(10:31) How Cendana uses structured and unstructured data(16:51) How VCs are using AI(19:55) Why secondaries are driving most early stage venture returns(22:01) Deciding when to sell secondaries(24:28) Best performing venture funds ever(27:26) The best VCs have amazing access to the best founders(33:42) Why Cendana backs Solo GPs(35:57) How to invest over time and hype cycles(41:35) Why multi-stage firms are investing earlier(44:45) Cendana's current thesis: High ownership % to fund size(45:51) Why Cendana started backing non-lead VCs(48:41) How Cendana does diligence on fund managers(52:22) VC NPS Scores and Ron Conway's Silver Bullet(53:49) Good vs bad new VC firm strategies(56:36) Determining defensibility of a strategy(57:57) “Messy middle” software buyout fund(1:03:25) Portfolio construction best practice(1:08:11) Michael's 60x Rule(1:14:28) How Seed funds compete with multi-stage funds(1:20:05) Should you collect logos writing small checks?(1:21:07) Becoming an LP for the city of SF(1:24:42) Taking 18+ months to raise Cendana Fund 1 in the GFC(1:26:48) Warehousing the first Cendana Fund 1 investments(1:29:56) How to do a first close(1:34:29) Why it's hard to kill a VC firm(1:37:00) What happens to ZIRP tourist fund managers(1:40:22) How to raise a Fund 2 or 3 today(1:42:07) “US endowments are under siege”(1:44:55) What the best GP LP relationships look like(1:46:41) What Fund of Funds get wrong(1:50:43) The three most interesting trends in venture todayReferencedCheck out Cendana https://www.cendanacapital.com/Deep Checks https://www.deepchecks.vc/Prior episode with Eric at Bolt https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Q6n1vqUrF4Follow MichaelTwitter: https://x.com/MKRocksLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-kim-cendana-capital/Follow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

As Global Head of Equity Derivatives Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Ben Bowler is helping the firm's institutional client base understand the complex risk dynamics that impose themselves on today's markets. His process often leads him across asset classes, looking for linkages and developing stress indices that may provide early warning signs for US equity markets.Our discussion first considers the recent SPX vol event, which, from a short-term severity standpoint, Ben puts in a category with the GFC and Covid. He further makes the point that since the Tariff uncertainty was self-imposed, it was as if we were in the midst of the Covid crisis but already had the vaccine in hand.We then explore the work that Ben and his team have done on the concept of fragility. Here, he argues that the speed and magnitude of vol spikes, flash crashes and tantrum in markets has increased. In fact, in US single stocks, he suggests that fragility is at an all-time high with the reaction to earnings faster and more violent. Two factors may be playing a role. First, there is substantial crowding in certain risk exposures, like large cap tech. And second, liquidity provision, increasingly electronic in nature and sometimes rapidly withdrawn during times of stress.Lastly, we discuss the history of innovation and how investors have generally pulled forward the benefits of path-breaking new technologies, leading to asset price bubbles. Here, Ben is thinking about right tail risk and how important optionality may be in hedging the risk that the AI bubble could inflate substantially.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ben Bowler.

In this episode of Grow a Small Business, host Troy Trewin interviews Jose Berlanga of Tricon Homes, based in Houston, Texas. Jose shares his 40-year journey as a serial entrepreneur, starting in oil and gas at just 17, then scaling a construction business to $100M and 200 team members. He opens up about the challenges of the GFC, lessons from running seven cafes, and the mindset needed to survive and thrive in business. Jose also offers insights into hiring, delegation, and building resilience through tough economic cycles. Check out the book "The Business & Home Building" by Jose Berlanga — a practical guide that merges entrepreneurship with real estate insights. It offers proven strategies for building a thriving business while maintaining a strong and balanced home life. Focused on financial independence, property investment, and work-life balance, this book is a valuable resource for aspiring and established entrepreneurs alike. Why would you wait any longer to start living the lifestyle you signed up for? Balance your health, wealth, relationships and business growth. And focus your time and energy and make the most of this year. Let's get into it by clicking here. Troy delves into our guest's startup journey, their perception of success, industry reconsideration, and the pivotal stress point during business expansion. They discuss the joys of small business growth, vital entrepreneurial habits, and strategies for team building, encompassing wins, blunders, and invaluable advice. And a snapshot of the final five Grow A Small Business Questions: What do you think is the hardest thing in growing a small business? Jose Berlanga believes the hardest part of growing a small business is persistence — staying mentally tough through uncertainty, setbacks, and the less enjoyable tasks. Passion can fade when challenges mount, but endurance keeps you going. He explains that growth brings constant change and pressure to adapt. True success, he says, comes from resilience, not just enthusiasm. What's your favorite business book that has helped you the most? Jose Berlanga's favorite business book that has helped him the most is The Goal by Eliyahu M. Goldratt. He values it for its step-by-step approach to identifying and eliminating obstacles, improving processes, and turning challenges into assets for business success. Are there any great podcasts or online learning resources you'd recommend to help grow a small business? Jose Berlanga didn't mention any specific podcasts or online learning resources he uses. Instead, he emphasized his habit of writing everything down — capturing ideas, reminders, and tasks immediately to stay organized and avoid forgetting important actions in his business journey. What tool or resource would you recommend to grow a small business? Jose Berlanga recommends focusing on self-awareness and skill alignment as the most important tool to grow a small business. He advises choosing a business that not only interests you but also matches your strengths — because success comes from doing what you enjoy and what you're genuinely good at. What advice would you give yourself on day one of starting out in business? Jose Berlanga would advise himself on day one to relax and trust the process — to do his best without stressing over outcomes. He emphasizes not forcing results and believes that if you stay committed and focused, things will work out as they're meant to. Book a 20-minute Growth Chat with Troy Trewin to see if you qualify for our upcoming course. Don't miss out on this opportunity to take your small business to new heights! Enjoyed the podcast? Please leave a review on  iTunes or your preferred platform. Your feedback helps more small business owners discover our podcast and embark on their business growth journey.     Quotable quotes from our special Grow A Small Business podcast guest: Passion fades, but persistence fuels true success – Jose Berlanga You don't build a business alone — you build it with people you trust – Jose Berlanga Success is owning your time, not just your income – Jose Berlanga  

Unlocking Private Market Potential: Key Insights from Jim Dowd of North Capital   Jim Dowd, CEO of North Capital, brings four decades of experience across the sell-side and buy-side to my discussion with him on a topic top of mind for commercial real estate sponsors and investors: how to navigate a rapidly shifting capital landscape where regulation, liquidity, investor behavior, and macro volatility collide.   Here are the key insights from our conversation – designed specifically to you make better, more informed investment decisions in today's market.   1. Private Markets Are Growing — But Liquidity is the Blind Spot Jim sees a long-term, secular shift from public to private markets. This trend has been driven by: Rising regulatory costs of public capital raises Falling costs and barriers to entry in private placements Broader investor access due to reduced minimums (from $250K+ to $10K–$20K) But here's the warning: private securities still lack liquidity. Investors participating in these syndicated deals should recognize that they are locked in, sometimes for years, with no clear exit.   “It's like three guys trying to run through a door at the same time – when everyone wants out, they can't.”   Solution: Jim's firm has built an Alternative Trading System (ATS) to create secondary markets for private securities, a concept CRE sponsors might want to look at. While not yet equivalent to public exchanges, these platforms offer an emerging way to address investor liquidity concerns and could give forward-thinking sponsors a competitive edge.   2. Don't Be Fooled by the Illusion of Diversification Many sponsors pitch private equity real estate as an uncorrelated asset class, perfect for diversifying out of stocks and bonds. Dowd challenges this narrative.   “In a crisis, all risk assets tend to correlate. The illusion of diversification is mostly due to slow re-pricing in private markets.”   Takeaway: Sponsors should be transparent with LPs. While real estate is a solid long-term asset, it's not immune to systemic shocks. Treating it as a diversification tool must come with proper liquidity and risk disclosures.   3. Risk Has Moved From Banks to Private Markets Jim argues that the risk which once destabilized the banking sector during the GFC has now migrated to private markets. The positive spin: these markets are mostly backed by equity, not federally insured deposits, reducing systemic risk.   Investors (LPs) should understand that the margin for error in private real estate has shrunk. Mispricing risk in this environment is more likely to catch up with you, especially in a rising rate context.   4. The 10-Year Treasury: The Most Important Metric in CRE Jim highlights the 10-year Treasury yield as the single most important signal CRE sponsors should track.   Why?   “A 6% cap rate in a 2% Treasury environment is fundamentally different than the same cap rate in a 4.5% Treasury world. That delta blows up every underwriting model.”   Cap rate spreads are compressing. And yet, many sponsors haven't recalibrated assumptions.   Jim's advice: treat macro indicators like interest rates and liquidity conditions as core components of your investment thesis, not just afterthoughts.   5. Investor Behavior Has Changed: Active Risk is Now in Private Markets Jim sees a structural shift in how investors approach risk: Liquid portfolios (ETFs, mutual funds) are increasingly passive and macro-driven. Private investments, including real estate, are now where most investors take active risk. For sponsors, this has profound implications: Investor trust and manager selection matter more than ever. Sponsors must demonstrate operational excellence and a clear, differentiated strategy. Geographic proximity still matters. Many large managers raise capital locally. Relationships built within a 100-mile radius still drive much of the private capital flow. 6. On Crypto and Tokenization: Don't Confuse the Two North Capital does not allocate to crypto but Jim is bullish on blockchain infrastructure for private markets, especially tokenization.   “Blockchain could enable scalable, transparent, and low-cost transactions for private securities – if regulators allow it.”   Tokenization may hold long-term promise for CRE sponsors looking to expand liquidity, access global investors, and reduce friction. But the infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are still evolving.   7. Investor Advice: Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market Jim's advice to investors (including his own son) is simple: don't try to time the market. Instead: Keep short-term money in treasuries or cash equivalents Deploy long-term capital systematically over a 3–12 month window Accept volatility as the price of long-term outperformance For sponsors, this means messaging matters. Emphasize long-term fundamentals over short-term fear. Help investors contextualize volatility and maintain confidence in your strategy. 8. Watch for These Signals: What Could Change the Outlook Jim tracks two key macro indicators to signal inflection points: The 10-Year Treasury yield (as mentioned above) Capital flows in public markets – a pullback here could foreshadow slower fundraising in private markets. Beyond markets, two external shocks could force sponsors to reevaluate assumptions: A geopolitical crisis (India–Pakistan tensions, Middle East escalation, Ukraine/Russia fallout) A surprise inflation spike, particularly driven by tariffs, energy, or trade policy shocks Investors need to ask: “Can my portfolio withstand a 30–40% drawdown without breaking my long term plans?”  If the answer is no, you have too much exposure to risk and should dial back.   Final Takeaway for CRE Sponsors Jim Dowd's insights are a timely reminder that capital formation in private real estate markets is entering a new phase – defined by rising macro uncertainty, evolving liquidity expectations, and heightened investor scrutiny.   Sponsors who embrace transparency, align offerings with institutional risk frameworks, and prepare for greater regulatory and market sophistication will be best positioned to lead, and raise, in this new environment.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

This Week's Message: The Parable of the ShrewdAlf Nelson • 5.11.25Want to listen to the entire message from Sunday? - Visit ⁠gfcnow.com/messages⁠ or listen to this podcast feed. Let us know what you think about this podcast - Send your comments/questions for a future episode to ⁠Please take 30 seconds to subscribe and leave us a 5-star review on Apple or Spotify! New to GFC? We'd love to get to know you! Text NEWHERE (one word) to 94000; we'll follow up with you this week.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast@gfcnow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, I sit down with Jacinta Woods and Sonia Warner, the dynamic duo behind Woods and Warner, to celebrate their 18-year partnership in interior design. From starting their business during the GFC to building a thriving studio with a team of six, they share candid insights about partnership dynamics, overcoming challenges with staff, and evolving their distinctive design style. Their journey offers valuable lessons for designers at any stage of business.Hope you enjoy the episodeBeth xxEpisode Highlights: • How they met at Living Edge and formed a partnership despite barely knowing each other• The evolution of their business from a tiny 30-square-meter studio to their dream three-level space• Their approach to team management where designers own projects from start to finish• Navigating a challenging period with toxic staff and rebuilding their team culture• The development of their signature design style over 18 years• Current design trends including a move away from minimalism toward more colour and textureKey Takeaways:Successful partnerships require complementary strengths and mutual respectBe authentic to your own design style rather than following trendsTeam culture is critical - hire for values alignment, not just skillsSometimes a complete team reset is necessary for business healthDesign businesses evolve over time - embrace the journey rather than rushingPractical Insights: • How to structure a design team for maximum creativity and client satisfaction• Managing the dynamics of a business partnership over the long term• Rebuilding after challenging staff situations• Developing a distinctive design voice in a competitive market• Balancing creative vision with business practicalitiesPerfect For: • Interior designers considering a business partnership• Studio owners looking to build or restructure their teams• Designers struggling to find their unique style• Business owners facing challenging team dynamics• Anyone interested in the evolution of a successful design businessQuote from Episode: "Really hone in on what it is that you love, what it is that you're really good at. Don't get caught up in trying to do what everyone else is doing. The people that love what you do will gravitate to you." - Jacinta WoodsConnect with our guests: Woods and Warner @woodsandwarner Want to work together? Here are the ways I can help you in your business. 1.Sign up to our MAILING LIST where each month you will receive helpful business tips straight to your inbox 2. Start a HEALTH CHECK today. We will work together for 8 weeks and improve your systems and processes.I only have 8 spots available every month. 3. Start my course THE PROCESS so you know exactly what to do when in your interior design studio. 4. Have a look at THE RESOURCE STOCKROOM - this is where you will find our short courses and free resources to help you run a better interior design studio 5. Want to use our tool MTTD in your studio? Start your FREE 30 DAY TRIAL today.

There's bad news, really, and it's been coming and I think I've had my head in the sand for some time. I've been wanting things to get better quickly. I've wanted things to move out from grindy-ness, and a lack of fun, and excess, and nonsense. It's just been for four years of long, slow grind, it seems. Well, Matthew Hooton's opinion piece in the New Zealand Herald has laid it out starkly, unequivocally, in no uncertain terms. The grindy times are here for a long time, as he says. Brooke van Velden's constitutionally dubious and deeply unpopular legislation to amend the Equal Pay Act and more bold moves like it, are now unavoidable, whether they take the form of massive spending cuts, much higher taxes, or most likely, he says both. And the reason? Successive governments have been on a massive jolly, and now we, and successive generations have to pay for it. As Hooton reminds us, Treasury began formerly warning in 2006, about the looming fiscal challenges after 2030. It expected future governments would follow the responsible fiscal management of the Bolger, Shipley, and Clark governments, that they would maintain surpluses, pay back debt, put aside cash for a rainy day. Had we heeded the advice and followed the blueprint, we would be 15% of GDP in the black this year. Instead, the Key-English and Ardern-Hipkins Governments went on a 15-year spending spree, putting us 23% of GDP in the red, despite the Super Fund's returns on investments exceeding expectations. You can say what about the Canterbury quake, the GFC, and Covid? You can say all of that. But he's quite right. Successive governments have had to recover from crises, but they've also used that time to have a spend up, to push through expensive legislation and policies, of their choosing, of their ideology, while at the same time having to fork out billions in damage recovery. So, the four years of grindy times are going to be nothing in comparison to what we are going to see. There's more with this came from. Thanks to the Key-English and Ardern-Hipkins legacy, we're nearly 40% of GDP, or more than $170 billion, behind where Helen Clark, Winston Peters, and Sir Michael Cullen planned back in 2006, just as baby boomers retire and health costs start to explode. He says and argues without radical policy change, there is no plausible scenario that doesn't lead to eventual financial and social collapse. I urge you to read it and have a look and see what you think. That is why Labour's well-intentioned and accurately costed ill thought-out legislation is being scrapped. That is why superannuation and healthcare costs will be put under the microscope as costs balloon. And that is why I would argue, National and Labour need to work together to get us out of this mess. Treasury warned of the fiscal challenges in 2006. They warned of them again in a 2012 post-election briefing to John Key, the papers stressed again as baby boomers move into retirement, New Zealand's 65 and over population is projected to grow nearly four times more quickly than the total population, and consequently there'll be a rapid rise in health, aged care, and New Zealand super costs. Treasury said the fiscal challenge is considerable. There is no way to avoid making trade-offs. Given the potential economic and social instability that could result from any uncertainty about these trade-offs, we think it's crucial that effort be made to build broad public consensus on the way forward. And that's where we are today. The trade-offs are starting but there's no consensus, because it's just been sprung on us. Well, it hasn't been sprung on us. Treasury have been warning of this for some time, and we have ignored it as voters and the parties have ignored it. Both National and Labour are at fault, but we voters are to blame as well. We can't just stand there saying, “oh, we're victims we didn't know”. Would we have elected any party to government that laid out the grim prognosis for New Zealand Inc. and spelled out the tough measures we would need to take to recover? If Christopher Luxon had stood there in 2023 and said, we're in a real mess and it goes way beyond Hipkins and Robertson, Ardern and Robertson. It goes back a lot further than that and we are going to have to cut the equal pay amendment legislation, we're going to have to raise the age of superannuation, as every other western country we measure ourselves against has done, we're going to have to look long and hard at healthcare, we're have to look long and hard at welfare payments, and we're probably going to have to scrap some of them because we're in a deep, deep fiscal hole. Would we have said thank you so much for spelling it out. We're going to vote National back in to do these austere and tough measures that we need to recover so that we've got a country for our grandchildren. I doubt it. We are just as much to blame. The party is well and truly over, and it has been for some time. We've just borrowed to keep it going and buried our heads in the sand, turned up the music so we don't hear the creaking and the groaning of the economy as it struggles to keep the party going. It's time we all grew up. And it's time both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition worked together to try and keep the country together while we work our way out of this mess. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Design Brief is back and this time I'm chatting with another member of The Society of Australian Golf Course Architects, Ryan Van Der Veen.Ryan joins me to chat about his career, beginning with his time in golf course construction from a young age back in the USA where he was born. After getting his start using heavy machinery on weekends and school holidays, it was during his time studying at Purdue University where Ryan was given an opportunity to work with the late great Pete Dye with the reconstruction of their golf courses.From this early association with Pete Dye, Ryan was offered an opportunity to work at a golf course Pete Dye was building that in time would become the revered Whistling Straits Golf Course!Along with working with Pete Dye, Ryan spent a number years working as part of Greg Norman Golf Course Design team outside the USA including constructing the spectacular new Doonbeg in Ireland. It would soon turn that Ryan was asked to work in Australia with the Norman design team at a new golf course being constructed outside Adelaide in South Australia, when things soon changed thanks to the GFC! Ryan worked on a few other projects leading the Norman design and build team at some of our well known golf courses including Grange in Adelaide and Cathedral Lodge in Victoria, before life would soon see Ryan stay here in Australia and start his own golf course design business - Van Der Veen Designs.Join us for a great yarn hearing some wonderful stories from Ryan of building and now designing some great golf courses.You hit 'em clean and we'll keep 'em green!⁠The Golfing Greenkeeper - Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Golfing Greenkeeper - Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Golfing Greenkeeper TV - YouTube⁠⁠Send me an email to - thegolfinggreenkeeper@gmail.comPeople and places mentioned in this podcast:Ryan Van Der Veen - FacebookRyan Van Der Veen - SAGCA Profilesagca.com.auPete Dye - WikipediaPalmira Golf ClubPurdue University Golf ClubWhistling Straits Golf CourseBlackwolf RunBarefoot Golf & ResortTrump International Golf Links - Doonbeg CopperClub The Dunes - Port HughesThe Grange Golf ClubEastern Golf ClubCathedral Lodge & Golf Club - Greg Norman Golf Course DesignNew South Wales Golf ClubThe Huntley Development - Landscape ConceptGlenelg Golf ClubDye Designs GroupGreg Norman Golf Course DesignLove Golf DesignFazio Design

In this episode of Grow a Small Business, host Troy Trewin interviews Felicity Zadro, founder of Zadro Agency, a strategic communications firm in Sydney. Felicity shares how she built her business from just $5K and a heavy laptop named “Bruce” into a $2M agency with 10 team members. She discusses overcoming major challenges, including the GFC and losing 85% of revenue during COVID, and how she rebuilt with a strong retainer model. We dive into her focus on team culture, the shift from founder to CEO mindset, and balancing leadership with motherhood. It's a powerful story of resilience, clarity of purpose, and long-term growth. Why would you wait any longer to start living the lifestyle you signed up for? Balance your health, wealth, relationships and business growth. And focus your time and energy and make the most of this year. Let's get into it by clicking here. Troy delves into our guest's startup journey, their perception of success, industry reconsideration, and the pivotal stress point during business expansion. They discuss the joys of small business growth, vital entrepreneurial habits, and strategies for team building, encompassing wins, blunders, and invaluable advice. And a snapshot of the final five Grow A Small Business Questions: What do you think is the hardest thing in growing a small business? According to Felicity Zadro, the hardest thing in growing a small business is juggling priorities and deciding where to focus your time. She emphasised that time is finite, so making the right decisions, learning how to delegate effectively, and focusing only on what the business owner can uniquely do—especially the tasks they might not always want to—are essential and challenging parts of growth. What's your favorite business book that has helped you the most? Felicity Zadro's favorite business book that has helped her the most is Start With Why by Simon Sinek. She shared that it's been critical for Zadro Agency, particularly in shaping their brand and strategic planning process. It resonated deeply with her approach to purpose-driven business. Are there any great podcasts or online learning resources you'd recommend to help grow a small business? Felicity Zadro emphasises her involvement in a CEO group, noting that while it requires a substantial commitment, she finds it incredibly valuable for gaining insights and building connections with key people and suppliers. She describes the group as a continuous, structured learning environment that has profoundly influenced her and reshaped how she manages her business. What tool or resource would you recommend to grow a small business? Felicity Zadro recommends developing a robust business plan as a critical tool for growing a small business. A clear plan focuses efforts, sets achievable goals, and ensures team alignment, creating momentum and long-term direction for success. What advice would you give yourself on day one of starting out in business? Felicity Zadro's advice to her day-oneself is to trust her instincts and embrace the journey, knowing it will challenge and transform her into a better leader. She highlights the importance of listening to your inner voice as it reflects accumulated experience. Book a 20-minute Growth Chat with Troy Trewin to see if you qualify for our upcoming course. Don't miss out on this opportunity to take your small business to new heights! Enjoyed the podcast? Please leave a review on iTunes or your preferred platform. Your feedback helps more small business owners discover our podcast and embark on their business growth journey.     Quotable quotes from our special Grow A Small Business podcast guest: Culture isn't created overnight; it's a daily commitment to values and people – Felicity Zadro   Success is a balance of ambition, focus, and adaptability – Felicity Zadro Resilience is the key to thriving through challenges and change – Felicity Zadro      

This Week's Message: The Parable of the Prodigal SonMatt Murphy • 5.4.25Want to listen to the entire message from Sunday? - Visit ⁠gfcnow.com/messages⁠ or listen to this podcast feed. Let us know what you think about this podcast - Send your comments/questions for a future episode to ⁠Please take 30 seconds to subscribe and leave us a 5-star review on Apple or Spotify! New to GFC? We'd love to get to know you! Text NEWHERE (one word) to 94000; we'll follow up with you this week.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast@gfcnow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Yesterday Canada held its Federal election. While Canada has a number of political parties, it was really a 2 party race. Mark Carney running for prime minister is head of the liberal party and Pierre Poilievre is head of the conservative party. When Justin Trudeau stepped aside a few months ago, the liberal party elected a new leader in Mark Carney. Mark Carney served as governor of the bank of Canada, and in an unusual step as governor of the bank of England. To have the bank of England select an outsider to head their central bank was an unusual step. But it was clear that Mark Carney had earned a considerable amount of trust globally as a solid central banker. He presided over the Bank of Canada through the GFC in 2008 and frankly Canada was largely unaffected by the crisis in the US, which did by the way spill over into Europe.The one central figure in the election was not even a candidate. Donald Trump's statements about trade, annexation, military spending, and border security became defining issues in the election. The Canadian people have spoken and the country has elected a liberal minority government. My assessment is that the conservative leader continued to use campaign slogans from 6-12 months ago. He failed to pivot to the reality on the ground which was the new candidate facing him in Mark Carney, and he failed to pivot in a way that will address the negotiation with Donald Trump. Mark Carney did a much more convincing job of demonstrating leadership throughout the campaign. Pierre Poilievre did not play the part of Prime Minister and I believe that he did not convince the electorate at large that he was up to the job. This election had extremely high voter turnout compared with previous elections.As a developer who is active in both Canada and the US, I really would have been happy with either party winning the election. Both had pretty decent initiatives aimed at stimulating housing. The strong fundamentals combined with a removal of several barriers makes investment in some markets in Canada extremely attractive. On today's show we are going through the real estate incentives in the liberal platform. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Melody Wright joins Julia La Roche on episode 252 to discuss the state of the U.S. housing market.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Melody debunks the "inventory shortage" myth in housing and reveals startling truths about the current market. She explains how March home sales fell below 2008 levels despite population growth, discusses the hyperfinancialization of real estate through Wall Street and Airbnb investors, and shares insights from driving 10,000 miles across America to observe housing conditions firsthand. Melody also exposes ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis and offers hope for frustrated millennial homebuyers waiting for affordability to return. Throughout our conversation, she provides a sobering look at what our distorted housing market reveals about the broader economy.Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Introduction and welcome Melody Wright0:23 Setting up the big picture on housing and real estate 1:08 The context of the housing market's current state 3:18 Worst housing market in our lifetimes - March sales lower than 20084:18 Discussion of housing bubble and unaffordability 5:47 Hyperfinancialization of housing 6:15 Wall Street's role in housing after the GFC 7:32 The short-term rental craze and Airbnb saturation 9:03 How to see the real housing inventory numbers 11:06 Debunking the inventory myth and where the market is headed12:58 FHA loan issues and foreclosure programs 15:07 Hope for millennial homebuyers 16:42 Advice for first-time homebuyers 18:08 What the housing market says about the economy 19:00 Commercial real estate situation and empty buildings 20:35 Insights from driving 10,000 miles across America 22:43 Unlearned lessons from the Global Financial Crisis 23:51 Ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis 25:02 What a healthy housing market would look like 26:26 Closing thoughts

In six short trading days from 4/2 to 4/9, the SPX realized as much vol as it did during the ENTIRE year of 2024. The protracted risk-off that began with the “Liberation Day” fallout ranks only behind Covid and the GFC in terms of severity using data going back to 1990. While we've likely moved past peak VIX, in the aftermath of recent chaos is an overhang of uncertainty that may hamper critical decision-making. I see plenty of lingering uncertainties - from the uneven communication from the WH, from the unpriced reactions of our trading partners and from how the market will need to price in the potential economic and corporate profit fallout from the last several weeks. Unfortunately, the recent period has been a totally unforced exercise in negative branding for both the dollar and US government bond market. For the VIX to run to 50 and for duration not to rally concurrently is a bad outcome, amounting to an asset pricing taste test that went poorly. Scott Bessent and Company need to more effectively safeguard one of our most prized possessions, the US government bond market. The Ten-Year note, not the SPX, is the risk asset. The real financial tail risk that would bring about a spiral higher in the VIX would seem to lie in the potential that long-dated UST yields rise quickly. From a contagion standpoint, the Ten Year is the vulnerability. It's not being treated as such. I hope you find this useful. Have a great week. 

This Week's Message: The Parables of the Lost Sheep & Lost CoinMatt Murphy • 4.27.25Want to listen to the entire message from Sunday? - Visit ⁠gfcnow.com/messages⁠ or listen to this podcast feed. Let us know what you think about this podcast - Send your comments/questions for a future episode to ⁠Please take 30 seconds to subscribe and leave us a 5-star review on Apple or Spotify! New to GFC? We'd love to get to know you! Text NEWHERE (one word) to 94000; we'll follow up with you this week.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast@gfcnow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this week's episode, Sammy Gordon sits down with Peter Wandl: a seasoned property investor with grit, vision, and a serious track record. With a $9.6 million portfolio across 11 properties and $5 million in equity, Peter's journey is the epitome of hustle, resilience, and smart strategy. From fixing up toys on weekends as a kid to navigating the GFC after losing half his super, Peter's path has been anything but linear. He shares how he went from taking advice from traditional financial planners and buying underperforming house-and-land packages, to finally taking control, doing the hard yards himself, and eventually partnering with APS in February 2024. Now a mentor client with an impressive portfolio, Peter's influence extends beyond his own success, he inspires his family and everyone around him to chase a better future. School of Property is the ultimate education destination to master property investment, with a curriculum meticulously designed and crafted with both beginners and experts in mind. Whether you are a complete novice, or you're ready to take things to the next level in your portfolio, this is the program for you! To find out more, head to www.schoolofproperty.com.au. If you loved this episode please send it on to someone who would take some value, and please give us a 5 star review if you haven't yet and are loving the poddy! If you want your question answered on our podcast DM us on our socials or email us at apsteam@australianpropertyscout.com.au Send us your questions to: Instagram: @australianpropertyscout Want to book a call with us: Website: https://australianpropertyscout.com.au Any information, comments, opinions or content that we provide in this podcast is our general observations and information only and it is not to be taken as, or in any way, considered to be financial advice, accounting advice, superannuation advice or legal advice. We strongly recommend all and any listener and participant to obtain their own independent financial advice, accounting advice, superannuation advice and legal advice before acting in any way in relation to any investment at all including any investment in property such as what we might be discussing in this podcast. No warranty, guarantee or representation is to be taken and you cannot reproduce it in any way. Every persons financial or investment situation is different and you must consider your own circumstances before undertaking any investment and be sure to obtain independent advice. Australian Property Scout Pty Ltd | License Number: 10094798 | ABN: 64 638 266 369 Chapters: (01:45) Welcome (07:20) Property across the generations (19:45) A career shift sparked at a BBQ (25:57) Missed chances on the field (31:25) What the market cycle really means (43:19) Tough times that shaped the path (52:53) The Salisbury deal gone wrong (01:04:09) Going all-in on one strategy (01:10:10) Running the numbers on profit (01:12:32) Lessons learnt from past mistakes (01:22:19) Selling to move smarter (01:38:35) Importance of starting (01:45:50) Staying focused on the bigger picture (01:53:59) Why learning never stops

Oh crap the election is this Saturday. Emerald is joined by guest host, #auspol legend and live-blogger for the Australia Institute, Amy Remeikis! Why has this election campaign felt so lacklustre? Is everything going to hell? And what are Amy’s predictions for election result upsets? Coming Friday on Patreon - Leo Puglisi!!! ---------- Just released on Patreon - “Inside The Greens #9 : The Rudd years, GFC, Ronan Lee & a Lib-Green Love Affair” The show can only exist because of our wonderful Patreon subscriber’s support. Subscribe for $3/month to get access to our fortnightly subscriber-only full episode, and unlock our complete library of over SEVENTY past bonus episodes. https://www.patreon.com/SeriousDangerAU ---------- Call to action - Follow Amy’s Australia Institute live blog - https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/ Read Amy at New Daily - https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/author/amy-remeikis Amy on social media - https://bsky.app/profile/amyremeikis.bsky.social https://x.com/AmyRemeikis https://www.instagram.com/pyjamapolitics/ THE ELECTION IS HERE! Go to this page, contact your local campaign - https://greens.org.au/events Sign up to volunteer greens.org.au/vic/volunteer Serious Danger merch - https://seriousdanger.bigcartel.com/ Produced by Michael Griffin https://www.instagram.com/mikeskillz Follow us on https://twitter.com/SeriousDangerAU https://www.instagram.com/seriousdangerau https://www.tiktok.com/@seriousdangerauSupport the show: http://patreon.com/seriousdangerauSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For Matt King, evaluating market risk is often about pinpointing vulnerabilities within the financial system. Over the many years he's been advising institutional investors, he's gone where the action is - in the dotcom era it was corporate balance sheets, in the pre-GFC period it was asset-backed CP and in the last decade it's been sovereigns and QE. Now the founder of Satori Insights, Matt shared his current assessment of risk on this episode of the Alpha Exchange.  His materially bearish take is a function of what he views as US trade policy underpinned by both a misunderstanding of balance of payments math and a failure to appreciate the risks of chaotic implementation. On the latter, Matt worries that the US is earning itself a risk premium in the back end of its bond market, a troubling development especially set against the ever-growing pile of debt outstanding. Matt shows the spike in US real rates at a time when the VIX was also surging and the dollar falling as similar to the UK's "Liz Truss moment" in 2022, an event that forced the Bank of England to act quickly. Matt argues that while Democracy ought to be mean-reverting - where bad policy leads to bad outcomes and declining popularity, ultimately motivating a change of course, today's setup in the US is one in which bad policies impact growth and further poison our politics, reinforcing bad policy. Stepping back, he sees value in gold, noting that both gold and FX vol are still too low. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Matt King.

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain how mortgage rates, tariffs and stock market volatility are affecting the U.S. housing market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And today we're here to talk about all of the headlines that we've been seeing and how they impact the U.S. housing market.It's Thursday, April 24th at 9am in New York.Jay Bacow: Jim, there are a lot of headlines right now. Mortgage rates have decreased about 60 basis points from the highs that we saw in January through the beginning of April. But since the tariff announcements, they've retraced about half of that move. Now, speaking of the tariffs, I would imagine that's going to increase the cost of building homes.So, what does all of this mean for the U.S. housing market?James Egan: On top of everything you just mentioned, the stock market is down over 15 per cent from recent peaks, so there is a lot going on these days. We think it all has implications for the U.S. housing market. Where do you want me to start?Jay Bacow: I think it's hard to have a conversation these days without talking about tariffs, so let's start there.James Egan: So, we worked on the impacts of tariffs on the U.S. housing market with our colleagues in economics research, and we did share some of the preliminary findings on another episode of this podcast a couple weeks ago. Since then, we have new estimates on tariffs, and that does raise our baseline expectation from about a 4 to 5 per cent increase in the cost of materials used to build a home to closer to 8 per cent right now.Jay Bacow: Now I assume at least some of that 8 per cent is going to get pushed through into home prices, which presumably is then going to put more pressure on affordability. And given the – I don't know – couple hundred conversations that you and I have had over the past few years, I am pretty sure affordability's already under a lot of pressure.James Egan: It is indeed. And this is also coming at a time when new home sales are playing their largest role in the U.S. housing market in decades. New home sales, as a percent of total, make up their largest share since 2006. New homes for sale – so now talking about the inventory piece of this – they're making up their largest share of the homes that are listed for sale every month in the history of our data. And that's going back to the early 1980s.Jay Bacow: And since presumably the cost of construction is much higher on a new home sale than an existing home sale, that's going to have an even bigger impact now than it has when we look to the history where new home sales were making up a much smaller portion of housing activity.James Egan: Right, and we're already seeing this impact come through on the home builder side of this, specifically weighing on home builder sentiment and single unit building volumes. Through the first quarter of this year, single unit housing starts are down 6 per cent versus the first quarter of 2024.Jay Bacow: All right. And we're experiencing a housing shortage already; but if building volumes are going to come down, then presumably that puts upward pressure on home prices. Now, Jim, you mentioned home builder sentiment. But there's got to be home buyer sentiment right now. And that can't feel very good given the sell off in equity markets and what that does with home buyer's ability to afford to put down money for down payment. So how does that all affect the housing market?James Egan: Now that's a question that we've been getting a lot over the past couple weeks. And to answer it, we took a look at all of the times that the stock market has fallen by at least 20 per cent over the past few decades.Jay Bacow: I assume when you looked at that, the answers weren't very good.James Egan: You know, it depends on the question. We identified 10 instances of at least a 20 per cent drawdown in equity markets over the past few decades. For eight of them, we have sufficient home price data. Outside of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which you could argue was a housing led global recession, every other instance saw home prices actually climb during the equity market correction.Jay Bacow: So, people were buying homes during a drawdown in the equity market?James Egan: No home prices were climbing. But in every instance, and here we can go back a little bit further, sales declined during the drawdown. Now, once stock markets officially bottomed, sales climbed sharply in the following 12 months. But while stock prices were falling, so were sales.And Jay, at the top of this podcast, you mentioned mortgage rate volatility. That matters a lot here…Jay Bacow: Can you elaborate on why I said something so thoughtful?James Egan: Well, it's because you're a very thoughtful person. But why mortgage rate volatility matters here? While sales volumes fall in all instances, the magnitude of that decrease falls into two distinct camps. There are four of these roughly 10 instances, where the decrease in sales volumes is large; it exceeds 10 per cent. And again, one of those was that GFC – housing led global recession. But the other three all had mortgage rates increased by at least 200 basis points alongside the equity market selloff.Jay Bacow: So not only were people feeling less wealthy, but homes were getting more expensive. That just seems like a double whammy.James Egan: Bingo. And there were more instances where rates did actually decrease amid the equity market selloff. And while that didn't stop sales from falling, it did contain the decrease. In each of these instances, sales were virtually flat to down low single digits. So, call it a 3 or 4 per cent drop.Jay Bacow: All right, so that's a really good history lesson. What's going to happen now? We've been talking about the housing market being at almost trough turnover rates already for some time.James Egan: Right, so when we think about the view forward, and you talk about trough turnover rates, I've said some version of this statement on this podcast a few times…Jay Bacow [crosstalk]: You're saying it again…James Egan: … but there's some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where rates and affordability are. And coming into this year, we really thought we were at those levels. I'm not saying we don't still think that we're there, but if mortgage rates were to stay elevated like they are today as we're recording this podcast, amid this broader equity market volatility, we do think that could introduce a little bit more downside to sales volumes.Jay Bacow: All right, but if we've got this equity drawdown, then I feel like we've been getting other questions from homeowners' ability to pay for these mortgages – and delinquencies in the pipeline. Do you have anything to highlight there?James Egan: Yes, so I think one of the things we've also highlighted with respect to the unique situation that we're in in the US housing market is – just how low effective mortgage rates are on the outstanding universe versus the prevailing rate today.We've talked about the implications of the lock-in effect. But if we take a closer look on just how much bifurcation that's led to in terms of household mortgage payments as a share of income, depending on when you bought your house. If you bought your house back in 2016, your income, if we at least look at median income growth, is up in the interim.You probably refinanced in 2020 when mortgage rates came down. That monthly payment as a share of today's income, today's median household income, roughly 8.5 per cent. If you bought up the median priced home at prevailing rates in 2024, you're talking about a payment to income north of 26 per cent. When we look at performance from a mortgage perspective, we are seeing real delineations by vintage of mortgage origination – with mortgages before 2021, behaving a lot better than mortgages after 2021. So the 2022 to [20]24 vintages.I would highlight that losses and foreclosures, those remain incredibly contained. We expect them to stay that way. But when we think about all of this on a go forward basis, we do think that mortgage rate volatility is going to be important for sales volumes next year. But everything we talked about should lead to continued support for home prices. They're growing at 4 per cent year-over-year now. By the end of the year, maybe 2 to 3 per cent growth. So, a little bit of deceleration, but still climbing home prices.Jay Bacow: Interesting. So normally we talk about the housing market. It's location, location, location. But it sounds like the timing of when you bought is also going to impact things as well. Jim, always a pleasure talking to you.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy this podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In Leaders Getting Coffee episode 40, our guest is Lawyer turned Novelist, Rachel Paris. Success is a recurring theme in the life of Rachel Paris. With degrees from Auckland University in Economics and Law, and the Law Society’s prize for the top law student under her wing, she joined one of the country’s most prestigious law firms, Bell Gully. A spectacular law career in New Zealand and around the world followed. Along the way she completed her Master of Law degree at one of the world’s most prestigious law schools, Harvard Law. Her dissertation there was cited as ‘influential’ by the Wall Street Journal. After her Kiwi OE via a law firm in London, she returned to New Zealand, quickly becoming a Partner back at Bell Gully where, she became an expert in Banking and Finance law in the free lending days before the GFC, and she oversaw much of the post-crash restructuring that became the aftermath of those heady days. Uniquely, she put that career aside and left the law partnership, as her family moved to London, following husband Jason’s career at Vodafone. There, she created her own boutique law firm specialising in Blockchain technologies and supporting her global client base part time while organising a growing family in a new part of the world. But, having returned to New Zealand, it is her latest adventure that is the most fascinating. A masters degree in creative writing back at her old stomping ground at Auckland University and now a new book. And not a book about the law or even blockchain. But a novel, a twisting turning thriller about toxic rich people behaving badly! The book, published in New Zealand and Australia, is called “See How They Fall” and has already attained Number 1 Bestseller status, while a Hollywood production company has optioned the rights for the big screen. During the Leaders Getting Coffee podcast Rachel Paris talks about her amazing career and the lessons in leadership she has learned along the way. We learn more about Bitcoin, Harvard Law School, and the importance of making an impact, while balancing a family with three busy children and a CEO husband. And, as you might expect, there is both support and strongly worded advice for a government with plenty on its plate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rarely do we know when crisis will strike – a pandemic, war, or a GFC-like event – but if it does happen, the impact on your business and staff could be just as seismic. So how can you prepare for a potential disaster? It helps to have an adaptive mindset, insists Prof Martin Bean, CEO of The Bean Centre, and former Vice Chancellor of RMIT University, during the lockdown days of COVID-19. He has co-authored a book, ‘Toolkit for Turbulence: The mindset and methods that leaders need to turn adversity to advantage’. An adaptive mindset, he says, equips you and your team to deal with fast and unpredictable change, to navigate in uncertainty, to collaborate on complex entangled problems, and to embrace ambiguity and paradoxes. Business Essentials Daily is produced by: SoundCartelsoundcartel.com.au+61 3 9882 8333See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This Week's Message: Easter 2025 - The Eighth DayMatt Murphy • 4.20.25Want to listen to the entire message from Sunday? - Visit ⁠gfcnow.com/messages⁠ or listen to this podcast feed. Let us know what you think about this podcast - Send your comments/questions for a future episode to ⁠⁠ Please take 30 seconds to subscribe and leave us a 5-star review on Apple or Spotify! New to GFC? We'd love to get to know you! Text NEWHERE (one word) to 94000; we'll follow up with you this week.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast@gfcnow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit leesimon.substack.com截至 2024 年底，美國聯邦政府預算赤字為國內生產總值（GDP）的 6.4%，總額約為 18000 億美元， 相當於每位美國公民約 5460 美元；這只是每年的赤字。而美國聯邦政府的總債務已達 360000 億美元，佔 GDP的 123%，等於每位公民平均承擔約 106000 美元的債務。就算只是由公眾持有的美國聯邦政府債務，金額亦高達 29 萬億，約為目前的 GDP 100%。以歷史數據對比，1985 年美國聯邦政府債務佔GDP的比例為 40%，1995年為 64%。過去廿年，美國政府總債務負擔在全球金融危機（GFC）和2020年疫情期間顯著上升。目前，聯邦政府債務的平均到期時間為 71 個月， 比五年前的 70 個月略有增加， 而在 2008 年金融危機前，平均到期時間為 54 至 56 個月。更重要是，約有三分之一的債務於今年到期，屆時美國政府將要以更高的利率水平發行新債，進一步增加未來的利息支出負擔。2024 年，聯邦政府的債務利息支出約為 8810 億美元，已經是聯邦政府預算中的第二大支出項目，佔總支出的13%，相當於 GDP 的 3.1%。自 1940 年代以來，利息支出佔 GDP 的比例從未超過 3.2%。儘管美國政府所發行之國債，仍然被教科書視為最安全的投資工具。但在 2023 年 5 月，美國國債的信用違約掉期合約（CDS）價格飆升至 2009 年以來的最高水準。當時美國政府就提高國債上限，曾一度在國會未能達成共識；時任財政部長耶倫警告，如果債務上限僵局未能解決，政府可能最早在 2023 年 6 月 1 日耗盡資金。隨後，信貸評級機構惠譽在 2023 年 8 月將美國的信用評級從AAA下調至AA+；穆迪也在同年底將美國政府的信貸展望調整為負面。究竟美國政府是否可能違約？技術上，假如國會在關鍵時刻未能提高或暫停債務上限，違約是可能發生的。根據國會預算辦公室和兩黨政策中心的最新預測，以上所謂的「X 日期」（X-Date），即政府無法按時履行其義務的時間點，最早可能在 2025 年 7 月中旬至 10 月初之間再次出現。根據以上的客觀數據，今屆政府政府繼承了一場迫在眉睫的債務與赤字危機，也解釋了為甚麼在上任後就進行如此大刀闊斧的行動；有如一個就快要破產的人，只有三個財政重組的手段：（一）增加收入、（二）減少支出和（三）重組債務。​在增加收入方面，其中一個最簡單直接的方法就是開徵全國性的銷售稅。儘管在技術上是可行的，但在政治上難以接受；尤其是開徵新稅種意味要經國會通過。所以今屆政府將整個論述包裝成貿易逆差的問題，並將政治矛盾導向到外國對美國產業的剝削。更重要是，當今屆政府將問題提升到國家利益和安全層面，就可以用行政命令方式繞過立法程序宣布關稅。單憑關稅能否處理美國聯邦政府的財赤？2024 年，美國的進口的貨值為 41100 億美元。 假設對所有淨進口徵收 10% 的關稅，而且進口貨額不變，理論上也只可為聯邦政府帶來 4000 億美元左右的新收入。換句話說，即使在最理想的情況下，關稅收入也僅足以支付目前 8800 億債務利息支出的約44%，更遑論減少整體赤字。然而，實際的稅收會因進口值減少而打折扣。根據國會預算辦公室的估計，劃一 10% 的全球關稅，將令美國 GDP 減少 0.3%，消費物價上升 1%，並且削弱美國家庭的消費力；在未來十年亦只可以為美國政府帶來 22000 億的收入，平均攤分計即每年只有 2000 億左右的稅收，遠低於以上最理想每年 4000 億美元的假設。根據其他政策研究機構如 Yale Budget Lab、Tax Foundation 等更悲觀的估算，關稅減少美國 GDP 0.4 至 1.1%，令消費物價上升 1.7 至 2.9%，而最終稅收可能低至每年只有 1400 億。正如民主黨候選人哈里在去年選舉時所指出，這種關稅變相就是全國性銷售稅，會令價格水平上升，需求減少，最終只是由全民負擔成本。但請不要誤會，我不是認同民主黨的主張；民主黨對富人徵稅的主張，也同樣也是空中樓閣，不切實際。​美國政府的問題不是稅務收入太低， 因此政府必須探索其他方法來解決赤字危機。​政府效率部（DOGE）最初的目標是在兩年內將聯邦政府赤字減少 2 萬億美元。 然而，根據最新報導，截至目前，節省的金額僅為 1500 億美元。削減開支是必須的，但實際操作比預期更具挑戰性。​事實上，美國政府轄下的審計部門如 Governmnet Accountability Office （GAO）和 Inspectors General 估計，目前美國聯邦政府可以削減成本的空間只有 2000 億美元；最主要原因是目前美國聯邦政府有六成以上開支為社保以及醫保等難以觸動的法定開支，而且這些開支範疇在未來亦有重大的潛在危機。以目前開支最大的社保為例，根據 2024 年的報告，老年與遺屬保險信託基金基金（Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, OASI）將於 2033 年耗盡儲備。屆時，僅依賴持續的稅收支付約 79% 的預定福利；而就算將殘障保險信託基金（Disability Insurance）合併計算，亦將於 2034-35 年耗盡儲備。屆時各領取福利的美國人只可以收到 79-83% 的金額，而隨著人口高齡化，未來福利發放金額將持續下降。 所以今屆政府要解決赤字和債務危機，最關鍵策略還是債務重組。儘管現任政府否認「海湖莊園協議」（Mar-a-Lago Accord）的存在，但種種跡象顯示，美國政府正在嘗試實行當中的概念，包括：一，以關稅為威脅迫使外國政府配合；二，迫使目前持有年期相對短的外國央行及金融機構轉為持有年期更長的債券；三，透過成立美國主權基金干預匯率；四，對外國央行持有的美元徵收費用。究竟如何具體地令「海湖莊園協議」成為事實？截至 2023 年底，海外投資者持有的美國國債金額為 81000 億美元，約為公眾持有美債的 31% ；主要為日本、中國和英國。甚至有推測指今屆美國政府會考慮循政治及法律途徑，向外國政府追討第二次世界大戰以來美國向世界各國提供的援助，又或者就疫情向中國政府追討賠償。應該沒有任何一個政府會接受這些「不平等條約」，難道屆時美國會凍結這些國家的資產？當然 ，以上所提到的「海湖莊園協議」只是猜想，但有一點可以肯定是，隨著經濟景氣轉壞以及美國因關稅減少對外國商品需求，美元有能會有升值壓力；這一點與傳聞中的「海湖莊園協議」要令美元貶值有根本上的抵觸。美元持續強勢會增加資本外流的壓力；所以今屆政府以行政手段，也就是「美國優先投資政策」，以阻止關鍵投資流向海外。​各大跨國企業在政治壓力之下，紛紛表態會在美國投資，但最終是否口惠而實不至，就只有過幾年才知道。最初提到財務重組的三個主要手段，即是增加收入、減少開支和債務重組，都不可能在短期內完成。但由於在 2025 年初，美國聯邦政府又已經觸及 361000 億的債務上限水平，而目前財政部只是透過從不同的基金提取現金維持開支。最保守估計到今年九月前美國政府又要提高債務上限並發行新債，否則不但政府停擺，更重要是將出現美國政府的債務違約危機。但如果實際稅收低過預期，以上所講的「X 日子」將更早發生。根據美國憲法第十四條修正案的第四節，也就是所謂的「公共債務條款」（Public Debt Clause）美國政府的行政部門有憲法義務防止美國債務違約。所以，最可能的情況是，國會將再次提高債務上限。但今次美國面對的財政壓力，比過去的任何一次危機更加明顯。當美國政府的融資成本上升，也債劵價格尤其是長債的價格會進一步受壓，市場利率會因此上升。亦由於金融機構所持有的債券價格下跌，有可能會觸發新一輪的金融危機，屆時聯儲局亦在沒有選擇之下要大幅擴張貨幣政策，並促使其他中央銀行進行競爭性寬鬆。假如發生在全球經濟衰退期間，加上美國實施全球性關稅帶來的需求減弱，結果可能引發經濟衰退與通漲急升同時出現的滯漲（Stagflation）。

Epic rap battles of history - Biggie vs Tupac, Kendick vs Drake, DJ Albo vs Peggy Sue. Emerald and Tom take a look at the week’s election news (10:57). Dual-citizenship takes down the Greens candidate for Franklin, and is Purple Pingers to blame for squatters in Carol’s empty house? Then they are joined by the MP for Griffith and Greens housing spokesperson, Max Chandler-Mather! (26:13) Is this the week the major parties went mask off? Will the competing Labor and LNP housing policies just compete to do the most damage? Why do the Greens want a public developer? Finally, a call to action (1:03:33). ---------- Just released on Patreon - “Inside The Greens #9 : The Rudd years, GFC, Ronan Lee & a Lib-Green Love Affair” The show can only exist because of our wonderful Patreon subscriber’s support. Subscribe for $3/month to get access to our fortnightly subscriber-only full episode, and unlock our complete library of over SEVENTY past bonus episodes. https://www.patreon.com/SeriousDangerAU ---------- Call to action - Support Max’s campaign - https://www.maxchandlermather.com/ Purple Pingers article -https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/purple-pingers-jordan-van-den-lamb-squatters-post-senate-elex/105150596 THE ELECTION IS HERE! Go to this page, contact your local campaign - https://greens.org.au/events Sign up to volunteer greens.org.au/vic/volunteer Serious Danger merch - https://seriousdanger.bigcartel.com/ Produced by Michael Griffin https://www.instagram.com/mikeskillz Follow us on https://twitter.com/SeriousDangerAU https://www.instagram.com/seriousdangerau https://www.tiktok.com/@seriousdangerauSupport the show: http://patreon.com/seriousdangerauSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Masters of Moments, host Jake Wurzak sits down with Micah Lacher, founder of Anchor Investments, for a deeply personal and wide-ranging conversation about real estate, entrepreneurship, and the power of second chances. From growing up in a struggling household in North Memphis to building a respected investment and development firm in Nashville, Micah's story is both gritty and inspiring. They begin with Micah's early exposure to real estate, sparked by a life-changing move that took his family from an unsafe neighborhood to one of the best public school districts in Memphis—secured through an unlikely deal involving two Delta Airlines plane tickets. That experience set the tone for a life shaped by faith, hustle, and resilience. Throughout the episode, Micah shares how he transitioned from a brokerage role at Cushman & Wakefield into real estate development, thanks to the mentorship of Bob Tull, a former Walmart developer. He recounts launching Anchor in the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, raising capital deal-by-deal to purchase distressed assets when few others had the conviction to buy. They also discuss: - The high-stakes risk of personal guarantees during the Great Financial Crisis   - How Micah structured deals, underwrote for worst-case scenarios, and still found upside   - The transition from broker to principal and the influence of early mentors   - Raising children without entitlement while building wealth   - Using his business as a platform for purpose and service to the community   Micah's outlook is rooted in gratitude and long-term thinking, with a focus on character, consistency, and building something that matters. This episode is a must-listen for anyone navigating the intersection of values, leadership, and real estate. Links: Micah on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/micah-lacher-1366151/ Anchor Investments - https://www.anchorinv.com/ Connect & Invest with Jake: Follow Jake on X: https://x.com/JWurzak 1 on 1 coaching with Jake: https://www.jakewurzak.com/coaching Learn How to Invest with DoveHill: https://bit.ly/3yg8Pwo Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:01:14) - Micah's upbringing (00:08:03) - Early career (00:13:19) - Mentors, marriage, and breaking phone addiction (00:19:17) - The fear of raising entitled children (00:22:16) - Learning the brokerage game (00:30:14) - Transitioning from broker to principal (00:39:24) - Developing “Walmart shadows” and experiencing the GFC (00:45:06) - Raising capital in 2009 (00:51:51) - Thoughts on RTO (00:53:42) - How do you think about your business today, given how you started? (00:57:30) - Using the business to effect change (01:10:37) - Establishing a competitive edge (01:13:08) - Developing hotels in Nashville - and giving away the profits (01:23:11) - The Nashville market (01:27:34) - What's your favorite hotel?

The markets just suffered their biggest weekly drop since the GFC. Headlines are screaming panic. But what if there's a bigger story unfolding – one that could actually set up Australian investors for advantage? This week on The Investor Lab, we're diving deep into what's really happening behind the market meltdown and emerging trade wars. Here's what we'll unpack:* The real story behind Trump's new tariff plan (and why it's reshaping global trade)* Why tariffs might actually lead to lower prices in Australia (not higher)* Are we about to head into a recession, or come out of one?* How this massive market correction could impact your portfolio (for the better) So if you’re getting caught in the swell, join us on Friday. We’ll break it all down. See you on the inside, WATCH ON YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/live/cOCsUjucTlY IMPORTANT: The Investor Lab is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and seek independent professional advice before making any investment or financial decisions. -- RESOURCES & REFERENCES: Related Episodes: What You Don’t Know About Money Could Cost You EverythingFollow the Money: How Liquidity Drives Asset Prices (and How You Can Benefit)Investment Strategies for 2025Winning the Investment Game: How to Set & Beat Your Hurdle Rate Books:* The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous - https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861* The Price of Tomorrow by Jeff Booth - https://www.amazon.com/Price-Tomorrow-Deflation-Abundant-Future/dp/1999257405 Further Research & Data Sources:* Real Vision - https://www.realvision.com* ARK Invest - https://ark-invest.com* Capital Wars Newsletter - https://capitalwars.substack.com* Bank for International Settlements - https://data.bis.org/topics/GLI* CoreLogic Australia - https://www.corelogic.com.au Charts & Statistics Referenced:* US Labor Force Participation Rate* US Government Debt to GDP (123%)* Chinese M2 Money Supply Growth (5388% since 1996)* Australian M3 Money Supply Growth (926%)* US M2 Velocity Trends* Global Liquidity Measures* Australian Residential Real Estate Value ($11.3T) -- Build a roadmap to achieve your goals for FREE on Property Pathfinder: propertypathfinder.io Want help to invest in 2025?Book in a quick chat here and we'll point you in the right direction:bit.ly/3E0wKGa Got a question or some feedback? We're all ears!bit.ly/tilqs Need finance guidance?Chat with the team: dashdotfinance.com.au/discoverycall – Catch Up On Recent Episodes: Portfolio Acceleration Masterclass: How To Use Strategic Selling As A Booster How to Create A Property Portfolio Growth Plan The Smartest Plan B for Business Owners? Sean's $464k StoryFinancial Jiu-Jitsu: How to Break Through Your Portfolio's Cashflow ConstraintsWinning the Investment Game: How to Set & Beat Your Hurdle RateFake Gold? Markets Down? Liquidity Up? – What’s REALLY Going On? The RBA Just Changed the Game — Here’s What It Means for YouHold vs Sell: How to Know When to Take ProfitsBitcoin: Why Every Property Investor Needs to Consider Owning ItEverything You Need To Know About Property Investing FinanceProperty Investing In Australia In 2025: What You Need To Know Investment Strategies for 2025 Follow the Money: How Liquidity Drives Asset Prices (and How You Can Benefit) What You Don’t Know About Money Could Cost You Everything – Connect:https://www.dashdot.com.auhttps://youtube.com/@theinvestorlabhttps://instagram.com/dashdotpropertyhttps://instagram.com/goosemcgrathhttps://instagram.com/gabi.billingSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s been a rollercoaster week for global markets, with Aussie investors caught in the crossfire of escalating trade tensions between the US and China. The back-and-forth, led by unpredictable moves from President Trump, has triggered some of the most extreme market volatility since the GFC and COVID era. Despite the chaos, the Aussie sharemarket is surprisingly set to finish the week only half a percent lower, thanks to a couple of strong sessions mid-week. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Yes, the current market crisis has been 'caused' by the US: You could say the same for the dot.com crash and the GFC. But is that an argument for stepping away from the country which represents more than 60 per cent of the global share market - and hosts the world's most important bond market? Dr Sam Wylie of the Windlestone Education group joins Associate Editor - Wealth, James Kirby in this episode. -----In today's show, we cover: Buying the dip Why retreating to the ASX will cost you in the long run How gold paid off in the market rout The winning ways of unhedged funds See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Barings' Head of Global CLOs, Adrienne Butler, retraces the history of the CLO asset class from its emergence in the late-1990s through the trials of the GFC and onto the most recent innovations including private credit and infrastructure debt CLOs.Episode Segments: (03:02) – The early days of the CLO market(09:33) – How CLOs fared in the 2008 period(16:14) – The distinction between investing in 3rd party CLO tranches and originating CLOs(18:21) – A broadening investor base(23:22) – How the competitive landscape has evolved(25:18) – What's next: Private credit, infra & real estate CLOs(28:39) – The opportunity in CLOs today(30:16) – Lessons Adrienne has learned in 25+ years in CLO marketsIMPORTANT INFORMATIONAny forecasts in this podcast are based upon Barings' opinion of the market at the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice, dependent upon many factors. Any prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investment involves risk. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Any examples set forth in this podcast are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of any future investment results or investments. The composition, size of, and risks associated with an investment may differ substantially from any examples set forth in this podcast. No representation is made that an investment will be profitable or will not incur losses. Barings is the brand name for the worldwide asset management and associated businesses of Barings LLC and its global affiliates. Barings Securities LLC, Barings (U.K.) Limited, Barings Global Advisers Limited, Barings Australia Pty Ltd, Barings Japan Limited, Barings Real Estate Advisers Europe Finance LLP, BREAE AIFM LLP, Baring Asset Management Limited, Baring International Investment Limited, Baring Fund Managers Limited, Baring International Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited, Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited, Baring SICE (Taiwan) Limited, Baring Asset Management Switzerland Sarl, and Baring Asset Management Korea Limited each are affiliated financial service companies owned by Barings LLC (each, individually, an “Affiliate”).NO OFFER: The podcast is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or service in any jurisdiction. The material herein was prepared without any consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of anyone who may receive it. This podcast is not, and must not be treated as, investment advice, an investment recommendation, investment research, or a recommendation about the suitability or appropriateness of any security, commodity, investment, or particular investment strategy.Unless otherwise mentioned, the views contained in this podcast are those of Barings and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients. Parts of this podcast may be based on information received from sources we believe to be reliable. Although every effort is taken to ensure that the information contained in this podcast is accurate, Barings makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the informationAny service, security, investment or product outlined in this podcast may not be suitable for a prospective investor or available in their jurisdiction.Copyright in this podcast is owned by Barings. Information in this podcast may be used for your own personal use, but may not be altered, reproduced or distributed without Barings' consent.25-4378005

Lenin purportedly said, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” It's difficult to understate how highly consequential these past few days have been. We live in an interconnected world of international rivalries, debt, trade, asset prices and economies. All kinds of tail probabilities become more live when a shock of this magnitude occurs. From a market standpoint, however, the higher vol goes, the greater likelihood that government officials blink in some way. The scars from the market chaos of the GFC and Covid remain and the lesson is not to create hard to fix but also urgent problems in the financial system. With this in mind, there could be an opportunity to fade the exceptionally high VIX level. I hope you find this discussion useful.

With the ASX in correction territory and US indices in a bear market in just three days, investors could be forgiven for panicking. But many are cashing up and ready to buy the dip - is it time? Henry Jennings from Marcus Today was on the trading floor in 1987 and has seen many crises. He shares his thoughts on: why those who think they can predict Trump's next move are too optimistic whether value has crept in to the market  strategies for retirees and accumulators, and  why this isn't the GFC or 1987 ... yet You can access this and previous episodes of the Your Wealth podcast now on iTunes, Podbean, Spotify or at nabtrade.com.au/yourwealth If you're short on time, consider listening at 1.5-2x speed, which should be shown on the screen of your device as you listen. This won't just reduce your listening time; it has also been shown to improve knowledge retention.

Retirement Planning: Brisbane couple Chris & Nou Nou are retiring in less than five years thanks to their property investments. ♡ I'm very proud to call them clients of the Property Investment Accelerator!

Borrowing to invest has long been a popular strategy in Australia as the loan interest cost is generally tax deductible. Borrowing for shares, however, really fell out of favour after GFC as investors feared they could be wiped out in the event of a margin call. There are, however, other ways to borrow to invest. In this podcast, nab Equity Lending's Phil McCall shares: A product that allows you to borrow for shares, with no margin call ever How to borrow to invest inside super The benefits of gearing to super charge your portfolio, and All the risks you must consider. You can access this and previous episodes of the Your Wealth podcast now on iTunes, Podbean, Spotify or at nabtrade.com.au/yourwealth If you're short on time, consider listening at 1.5-2x speed, which should be shown on the screen of your device as you listen. This won't just reduce your listening time; it has also been shown to improve knowledge retention.

On episode 405 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: how to become indispensable at work, the stock market comeback, the wealth effect, international stock outperformance, who owns the US stock market, 100 baggers, the Jerome Powell rally, watch what consumers do not what they say, how the GFC messed up the housing market, the shrinking middle class, Severance and more. This episode is sponsored by Kraneshares and Fabric by Gerber Life. Explore the KraneShares China & Emerging Markets Internet ETF Suite at: https://kraneshares.com/kweb-suite/?adsource=compound Join the thousands of parents who trust Fabric to protect their family. Apply today in just minutes at: https://meetfabric.com/spirits. Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Find complete show notes on our blogs: Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.   Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The best ideas are the ones that seem obvious—“Why didn't I think of that?” Sean Dobson saw the pile-up coming before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) crashed the housing market. Sean and his company, Amherst, built a model to assess the true value of every home in America and bet right on what followed the GFC. Sean then had another great idea. Families who were foreclosed on were pushed out of the for-sale market but still needed a suitable place to live. So Sean pivoted to single-family rental (SFR) in the early days when there was still plenty of doubt from investors and market watchers. Today, Amherst is a diverse financial services company for some of the largest investor entities in the world; think pension funds, major endowments, foundations, and sovereign wealth funds. SFR remains a key focus. Sean shares his insights on the SFR market, housing supply and NIMBYism, housing affordability, off-site construction, and more. Here are some highlights from the latest New Home Insights podcast episode.

Sit-ups do work for specific things. But there was a time when it was the pinnacle of core strength to be able to do 100 sit-ups. Now, we've come to learn that working the core is more than just sit-ups and crunches. There many more effective core exercises, so why do we do them here at GFC?Today, we're going to look into the effectiveness of sit-ups. Are they beneficial? Is there a reason why people get more injured doing this than anything else? What are the alternatives? I'm going to all of these questions and a few more in today's episode about you future six-pack.

Despite being parents of three boys under 9, Alice and Justin Hagen have consistently grown their business since starting it in the middle of the GFC. Now with a personal portfolio of over $4.5 million and a strong boutique agency, find out how the young couple bought their first property in Brisbane, what strategies t hey employed onto their first six properties, and their lessons learned from subdivision property struggles.The couple shares their anecdotes on both their successful and failed property investments, and their inexperience coming into the field with science university degrees. They prove that young age is no disadvantage when contributing to the industry and that when working together, smart risk-taking and profitable business opportunities are certainly possible. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Shaul Rosten, Equity Analyst, Global Value at Redwheel, joins the podcast to share his thesis on Ayvens ($AYV.PA), a provider of full-service leasing, flexible subscription services, fleet management and multi-mobility solutions to large international corporates, SMEs, professionals and private individuals.For more information about Redwheel, please visit: https://www.redwheel.com/uk/en/institutional/Chapters:[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa[1:39] What is Ayvens and why are they so interesting to Shaul[3:04] What is Shaul seeing with Ayvens that the market is missing[5:46] How do they compete against capital Finco's / understanding the business, how they make money[14:58] Red flags: what's going on with the "big merger" they did (LeasePlan)[23:12] Electric vehicles[28:02] Right to grow right now[32:54] SocGen's 52% ownership[38:29] Regulatory risks[42:20] What could go wrong / what could break Ayvens thesis for Shaul[46:14] Final thoughts: revisiting question - what does Shaul think the market is missing here, how'd they do during the GFC[49:19] Financing businessToday's sponsor: DaloopaEarnings season is hectic—there's no way around it. But what if you could take back the time you spend on manual model updates? With Daloopa, you can.Daloopa automates your audit and update process, instantly pulling accurate, fundamental data from filings and reports directly into your models. That means no more wasting hours on repetitive tasks. Instead, you can focus on analyzing trends, refining strategies, and staying ahead of the competition.Stop letting manual work slow you down. Set up a free account today by visiting daloopa.com/YAV and see how Daloopa can transform your workflow.

Kyle Bass is the Founder/CIO of Hayman Capital Management, L.P., an investment manager of private funds focused on global event-driven opportunities, and the Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Conservation Equity Management, an impact and natural capital private equity firm.  Kyle is also the Co-Chief Executive Officer of the newly formed Rochefort Management, a private credit firm focused on the Critical Technology Initiative – a joint effort between the Small Business Administration and the Department of Defense to attract private investment into technology areas deemed critical to national and economic security. Mr. Bass is a Life Member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the recipient of the 2019 Foreign Policy Association Medal for his responsible internationalism. Mr. Bass has lectured on global economics, national security, geopolitics, and the architecture of the Chinese financial system at various universities. Mr. Bass is the former Chair of the Risk Committee of the Board of Directors of the University of Texas Investment Management Company (UTIMCO), which manages approximately $75 billion.  We discuss: - Predicting the GFC and attempting to warn Bear Stearns and the SEC of the coming collapse - The global state of affairs: China, Taiwan, Russia, Iran and BRICS - How the U.S. and Trump should combat China - The rise of the U.S. Defense-Tech industry - Why Texas is the Growth Engine for the world (00:00:00) - Intro (00:04:03) - Introducing Kyle (00:05:58) - Short-Selling Thesis (00:11:45) - Predicting the GFC (00:19:50) - Trying to warn Bear Stearns & the SEC (00:25:39) - How to hire a contrarian (00:29:23) - China-Taiwan (00:33:34) - How Trump can have a successful presidency concerning China (00:44:17) - Iran (00:46:34) - Why some wealthy Americans are pro-China (00:49:32) - The Chinese land grab in America (00:52:41) - Texas: The growth engine of the world (00:58:47) - The Defense-Tech Industry in America (01:02:03) - What Kyle will invest in (01:05:19) - The Texas migration and influence (01:09:23) - What do you want to be known for? Support our Sponsors Vesto: https://www.vesto.com/fort BetterPitch: https://bit.ly/42d9L0I Fort: https://bit.ly/FortCompanies Follow Fort on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fort-companies/ Chris on Social Media: The Fort Podcast on Twitter/X: https://x.com/theFORTpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thefortpodcast LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/45gIkFd   Watch The Fort on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3oynxNX Visit our website: https://bit.ly/43SOvys Leave a review on Apple: https://bit.ly/45crFD0 Leave a review on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3Krl9jO  The FORT is produced by Johnny Podcasts

Derek Moore revisits the 1994-95 interest rate and market environment against the current backdrop regarding treasury yields and future S&P 500 Index returns. Plus, going through the case for higher for longer, whether that is good or bad for markets, and the adjustment the market would need to go through. Later, quantifying how sensitive the S&P 500 Index is to change in the forward PE ratio by putting into actual numbers and levels. Also, looking at Arista Networks and Alibaba before earnings and what the options market is saying their expected one standard deviation moves might be up or down. Finally, most people look at Real Inflation adjusted GDP, but Nominal GDP growth may be correlated to the 10-year yield and what that means if we go back to pre-GFC nominal growth rates. All this and more.    What is Nominal GDP Growth Rate? What is Real GDP growth? The US Dollar index and whether we are out of the zone of significance yet? Inflation in services remains sticky Why interest rates staying higher isn't necessarily a problem for the stock market Quantifying sensitivity of the S&P 500 Index to small changes in the forward PE multiple 1994-95 vs 2024-25 update around treasury yields, S&P 500 returns Alibaba and Arista earnings this week and their option implied moves  How to calculate expected move around earnings based on implied volatility levels     Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Jonny Matthews is a senior portfolio manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, an institutional-level macroeconomic research platform. Before that, he spent 12 years as a partner at Brevan Howard, where he managed a $500 million investment portfolio. Earlier in his career, Johny spent 11 years at Citigroup, leading a team in equity derivatives trading following the acquisition of Salomon Brothers, where he began his career. His expertise spans fixed income, equities, FX, credit, and derivatives strategies, including relative value and volatility arbitrage trading. This podcast covers lessons learned during his time at Saloman Brothers and Brevan Howard, experience of trading before the GFC, thoughts on the US economy – growth, inflation and tariffs, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

OpeningRainGuitar: W - W - H - W - W - W - H. C major all full notes, no minor or sharp. D has two sharps. So pachobel in D has C# and F#MarketsNetflix: $1008 ($1011). $500b. Up 80% over last yearAmazon: $237 today (was $242). $2.5t. Up ~40% in last year.Slides. Meta: $712 today!!   $1.8t. Up 54% over last yearPalantir: $107. $245b. Up 500% over last yearRevenue up 52% YoY. That's huge! Alex Karp on Earnings at 31:25 500 people job can be done with 3.HIMS: Up 60% in last month. Up 393% over last year. Hair and ED! Spotify: Stock $620. $125b. Up 34% last month. 180% in 1 year. TeslaFord  on Autonomy Tesla Bot jobs listingFATMAANN: Up 215% in 3 years. S&P500 36%Here's the thing about investing: you may think you've missed the 10000% growth. And you may have, but there is still opportunity to identify amazing opportunities. NVIDIA. Palantir. I bought late. But still works! I'll take 20%+ gains a year. That's double your money in 4 years! Tariffs:Inflationary by nature?If monetary supply is fixed how can it be inflationary. Money will shift to other purchases or sources. Milton Friedman on inflationOil Exports from Canada. - Agree or disagree will learn something. 97% of Canada oil export is to US. US purcaThey can't refine it. Its “Raw”. Super sour. 49.43. Bill on Tariffs for negotiation. DOGEBudget deficit ~$2 trillion in 2024.Debt has increased. $10t in 2008, prior to GFC. Now 36t. 15% of budget is INTEREST. Sunshine is the best disinfectant! We need  absolute transparency. DOGE Website:https://dogegov.com/Milton Friedman on DOGE.. again! DOGE and USAID (US Agency for International Development). Website here: Spends $50b per year on foreign aid.All spending by Govt should be line item. Headline: Elon shutting down USAIDNo. He is a hired (non-paid) consultant. No different than Mckinsy, BCG, etc… and all politicians and organizations use them. Trump clearly said all decisions are his! Findings: I $8m (updated to $34m to Politico thru USAID)Numerous invoices posted. Receipts showing ~$35k per subscription. I pay $500 or so for WSJ. Access to Treasury PaymentsLimited read-only per WSJ. Let's see the Epstien Island list!!  In short: Let's give all this some time and wait and see.   

Professional real estate investor, author and host of “The Real Estate Guys” Radio Show, Robert Helms joins us to discuss the nuances of mid-term, short-term rentals, and hotel real estate investing.  They highlight the impact of interest rates on single-family home affordability and the role of institutional investors.  Mid-term rentals cater to travelers like traveling nurses and digital nomads, offering higher monthly rents. Short-term rentals face challenges due to oversupply, but can be profitable with strategic planning. Hotels offer consistent experiences, with key metrics like occupancy and ADR.  Resources: Join Keith and other faculty experts at the Investor Summit at Sea, a unique networking and learning event for real estate investors. Let the event organizers know if you want to have dinner with Keith during the event. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/539 GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, surprising facts about the institutional ownership share of the rental market. Then learn from a great guest tonight about how the midterm and short term rental models work and hotel real estate investing. Then you are invited to join us both on the most special real estate event that I've ever been a part of, and I'm going to return to it today on get rich education.   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:17   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:33   Welcome to GRE from London, UK to London, Ontario and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden, you are inside this week's episode of Get rich education, where we aren't day trading, we are decade trading with gradual patient wealth accumulation through income properties, yet with a path that lets you live the good life of options and freedom when you're still young enough to enjoy it. Now, the shorter the period of time that your guest or your tenant stays at your place, the more that the word hospitality gets involved. Hospitality, that word has little to do with hospitals. It almost means the opposite. Hospitality means that you're now giving a warm reception to or entertaining guests or tenants. Well, that's something that you rarely do at a long term rental, but you do if you're a hotel real estate investor for sure, or maybe even a little in a short term rental, then you're in hospitality like valet parking, having a restaurant, a pool with a swim up bar, a gym, a concierge desk, or even having a lobby with travel desks of various tour companies. Right there. That's hospitality, and today as we discuss mid term rentals, then short term rentals, then hotel real estate investing, think about how the level of hospitality that you give increases as the duration of a guest or tenant stay decreases. Hospitality is one reason that long term rental rates for durations of, say, a year or more, well, they had the lowest daily rates and the least hospitality. And hotels with, say, a two night stay, have the highest daily rates and the most hospitality.    This week's show is presented by ridge lending group and freedom family investments. I mean Ridge is where I get all of my investment property loans, and where I do all of my refinancings. And perhaps you should, too, because they specialize in working with investor borrowers there, so they know just what you need and what you don't Ridge lending group.com, and then freedom family investments, that's where you can make a private money loan and get a higher yield than you can with a high yield savings account. That's where I invest a share of my own liquid funds for a passive 8% return, 10% return. And now this is new. They've got offerings at 12% or more. You can learn more by texting family to 66866, next, we discuss mid term rentals, short term rentals and hotel real estate investing.   This week, I'd like to welcome in a good long time real estate friend. He's been on the show here with you and I before. Besides being a deeply experienced real estate investor, he also hosts the terrific real estate guys radio show, which was a substantial influence on the launch of GRE more than 10 years ago. I mean, how many times have I suggested to you over the years that you give his show a listen? He also speaks with some of the best pipes in the industry. Hey, it's great to have back on the show this week, the incomparable Robert Helms.   Robert Helms  5:07   Hey, Keith, so good to see you. Thanks for having me back.   Keith Weinhold  5:11   Let me share with you. Robert is on a very short exclusive list of people that I credit for being where I am today, from how to host a professional show to being a Go Giver and Robert before we discuss mid and short term rentals in the long term rental world generally, just what's important to know in today's residential real estate market, you can take that anywhere you like.   Robert Helms  5:38   Well, I think the big picture has been all about the loans and the interest rates, right? We saw rates go up, not only a lot, but quickly, and then kind of come back down a bit. Now they're headed back up, and that just has a big effect on single family homes, primarily to folks who are living in the homes, because they'll make that decision based on the affordability of their mortgage payment and the rest of the costs investors Well, you know, we think a little differently. We're not limited by a specific interest rate will pay? If I can make 9% would I pay 6% sure, if I can make 9% would I pay 7% well, I might, and so on. So I think that that's something to watch this year. For sure. There's lots of reasons to expect that we're not going to see interest rates get back down into the twos and threes and fours like we wish they would stay. Probably shouldn't happen in the first place, but you and I took advantage of it, and lots of your listeners did as well. But I think that's kind of a big picture thing. And then the other part of it is, you know, the inventory. So when people have this locked in effect, which really doesn't have anything to do with their needs or wants, they have a new job or they have another child and they want to move to a couple of notches up in a neighborhood, they don't want to get rid of their 3.12% loan and have to buy another property with 7% so we see less people moving, therefore less inventory, total inventory now somewhere just around 700,000 or below, and that's lower than it's been for the average of the last 10 years. For sure, I think that has an effect, less people are moving because of the interest rates. But at the same time, you know, there are houses that trade every single day. People do have to move. They have life situations and so forth. And then real estate investors, of course, we just look for opportunity. If we can make a spread and we can be in a property long term where the tenant pays down our mortgage and not us, well, then we're interested at almost any interest rate.   Keith Weinhold  7:44    Yes, that interest rate lock in effect will persist another year. That continues to get diluted over time. Of course, though you and I both know that mortgage rates are still below their historic rate, but because of the recency bias, no one's really acting that way. By the way, the first ever rental property I bought had a six in three eights percent mortgage rate 20 years ago, and people were raving about what an incredibly low rate that was back then. But this constrains supply. And another thing that constrains available supply in today's market is more institutional players own rental property today we're talking about outfits like invitation homes and even the California State Teachers Retirement System. But one thing a lot of people don't seem to realize is that institutions like this own less than 1% of single family homes in the United States, and that's all institutions combined. And now if you just isolate that to single family rental properties, they still only own two to 3% so where we have this period of low supply and low affordability, you know, Robert, I think institutions, in a lot of these media headlines, they tend to get scapegoated or being a boogeyman. Oh, all these big players are buying up the homes, and that's why you can't buy one. But really, that's pretty overblown. So can you talk to us more about what the institutional entry into the real estate investing space has been like, which really picked up steam after the GFC about 15 years ago?    Robert Helms  9:16   Yeah, it sure did. I think that folks who were managing big sums of money, and the institutional money comes from all kinds of places, real estate, Investment Trusts, insurance, pensions, funds, and then just big old companies that decide to raise money to go do something, and that money saw opportunity said, hey, you know what? This is a short term anomaly, all these prices that went down after 2008 and 2009 and when a lot of mom and pop investors were very hesitant to touch the third rail of buying more property after what they had just been through, these institutions are like that. Institutional money is not very emotional, right? It's just looking at the numbers at the same time where the nuances of institutional funds is that they also didn't have a ton of real estate experience, and so it was quite common for a couple of years that an institution would come in, and they would typically work through local brokers, and those brokers would know the market a bit. But if you could generalize, you would say that a lot of institutions overpaid. But here's the thing, when you overpay in the moment, you don't really notice that in the long term real estate investment that these guys did, it's interesting. I've been to a couple of conferences I go to almost every year that 10 years ago was mom and pop investors. And today it's a lot of suits, not too many ties. They don't send. Tend to wear ties, but a lot of suits, a lot of folks working for various levels of these funds, and they're looking at real estate as an asset class. Now I'm going to argue their real estate's not an asset class like any other, because every share of stock, every ounce of gold, every barrel of oil that anybody buys, is discretionary. You never have to invest in the stock market, in the bond market and cryptocurrency, but you cannot sit out the real estate market. From an economic perspective, I don't have to own real estate, but I'm going to have to interact financially. And so it really doesn't operate like other quote, unquote, asset classes, but I think the big folks did figure out is that there is stability in real estate. There's not the efficiency they would like, and that's a good thing for us. We like inefficiencies in the real estate market, but more and more we are seeing funds being put together, even today, to acquire property. But to your point, and it's an excellent one, you see the headlines and you see the name calling of these big, faceless, nameless corporations. They're buying up all the inventory. They're not it is a drop in the bucket compared to what mom and pops own and will continue to own   Keith Weinhold  11:53    yes, and of course, I'm talking nationally. When I bring up those one two and 3% institutional share numbers, it's going to be lower in some areas, it tends to be a higher proportion of buying that the institutions do in Texas and also in a lot of southeastern markets, like Atlanta, Jacksonville, Charlotte and Tampa. Robert you have a good bit of knowledge and some involvement in the mid term rental market. We're talking about rentals of one to six months in duration. Here, can you talk to us about trends in the midterm rental market?   Robert Helms  12:25    Yeah, it's a fascinating area. You know, back in the day, these would be referred to as corporate rentals, so a corporation might lease an apartment and furnish it, and then they would have different people stay there over the years, so the corporation would be responsible for the lease. I had some tenants like this many, many years ago, and it wouldn't be up to me. It'd be up to them who had the keys at the time. And a tenant might stay six or seven months. A tenant might make four or five weeks their stay. And so the idea was they needed a place for these contractors who would come in and work for a period of time to stay. But hotels were a lot more expensive. Well today you see even the folks who got involved in short term rentals making a decision to invest in people like traveling nurses who come and stay for four to six weeks, or these clients who will come in and work for two months in this location, two months in this location, two months in another location. And so they will simply stay in a short term rental type of property for a longer term. And you know, the most expensive things when it comes to real estate or turnover in vacancy. So if we can get the tenant to stay longer and pay a bit of a premium, these are often furnished units, and they don't have to worry about much. And we've had a few opportunities where what started out as a three week rental turned into a six month rental, because sometimes when they bring these folks on these companies, don't know exactly how long they're going to stay, and it's been a great kind of marketplace. There's a few folks that specialize in it. But my experience is that a lot of the people that have gravitated towards midterm rentals used to be in the short term rental business, thinking they'd rent for one or two nights, and lo and behold, they get a client that would stay for a month, and they'd say, Hey, this is pretty cool.   Keith Weinhold  14:13   Some conversion rate there from short term rentals to these midterm rentals here, as Robert touched on, you do tend to get more monthly rent for a midterm rental than you do a conventional long term rental. You're going to have some experience for furnishing there. But Robert, you bring up a great point. You mentioned traveling nurses. And of course, here as real estate investors, we're often interested in who we're serving and what that demographic looks like. I also think of midterm rental clients or tenants as students in digital nomads, and oftentimes it's a person relocating where they just want to check out a place for a few months before they consider setting down roots in an area with a long term rental or buying their own place. So can you talk? More about the demographic that we're serving there, because oftentimes you want to follow their trends.   Robert Helms  15:04   Yeah, very much. So, you know, today, I think there's a lot of folks that can work from a variety of locations. They do need some things, they need quiet they need a good internet connection, but they will come and go for weeks at a time. And I also think that you see more and more employers looking to contract labor. They have a job to get done. They're not sure they want to bring on a full time employee with all the cost of benefits and onboarding and all that. So they find somebody in the niche that comes in for six or eight or 12 weeks at a time, and they're the perfect candidate for short term rental. But we also see folks that are between gigs. So I might have a six week gig, and three weeks later I have another six week gig, and the three weeks in the middle, I want to go somewhere that's kind of fun to hang out. And so you do see those kind of rentals as well.   Keith Weinhold  15:55   Are most long term property management companies open to managing midterm rentals?   Robert Helms  16:02   Yeah, good question. There are certainly those that are, but I think we're starting to see a specialty on the aggregator side, folks that are reaching out specifically to the kinds of people who are candidates for midterm rentals from the tenant side and looking to accumulate inventory. So that's been kind of a neat thing to watch. So the focus of most property managers, they're hired by the owner of the property. Well, these groups are really their their salary gets paid for by the tenant, and they're able to negotiate on the behalf of some of these groups, you know, a better rate, better terms. They may negotiate some flexibility and the time for these folks that don't know exactly how long they're going to stay, it's an interesting new area of management, for sure.   Keith Weinhold  16:52   Now, of course, we're concerned about a high occupancy rate in midterm rentals, just like we are any type of rental. What does one look for when it comes to advertising platforms. And this could be, you know, going beyond just a well known website. It might be, hey, if you have inroads with the local hospital system, oh, well, can you then funnel some of the traveling nurses, for example, into your midterm rental?   Robert Helms  17:15   Yeah, most definitely, it is a specialty niche, for sure, if you're after a robust rental solution. You know, many people in midterm rentals, like in short term rentals, the vast majority of short term rental owners are not making a killing. They are. They're liquidating some cost of what they consider their second home. So the average short term rental landlord has just one property, and that's a property they bought, probably not as a rental. They brought it as a second home, and they're discovering that when they're not there, they can lease it out, and that pays for some of the costs. But there are obviously a few folks who have cracked the code and figured out which markets and where the best opportunity is, and what size units it takes to maintain a really healthy occupancy, and it's the same for this midterm rental. It's a different kind of tenant. It's mostly not families, so it's not larger units with lots of bedrooms. It's also mostly not your higher end rentals with views of the water or up near ski resorts, it's in the bigger towns where there is employment, and that employment triggers most of the midterm rental business.   Keith Weinhold  18:29   You, as an investor owner, maybe your cash flow negative on your midterm rental or short term rental, however, you might be using it for a few weeks or months yourself and getting back more of the benefit that way you're listening to get rich education. We're talking with the host of the real estate guys radio show, Robert Helms, more when we come back, we discuss short term rentals, including, is there an air be in bust? I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,    hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Oh geez, the initial average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work. With minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is. 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866   Kristen Tate  20:39   this is author, Kristen Tate, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  20:54   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about midterm short term rentals and hotels and hospitality with a long time friend of the show here, Robert Helms and Robert a few years ago, there seemed to be this word airbn bust that was beginning to be associated with Airbnbs. A lot of the difficulty in that market. So tell us, what was that all about, and where are we now with industry trends in the short term rental market?   Speaker 1  21:21    Yeah, great question, Keith. What I think happened is the allure of a short term rental, having a beautiful property that people would pay a premium on a nightly rate, sounded wonderful, and it was, and it worked for a lot of folks. But then what happened is, what happens people got the word, they got excited about it, and a lot of people started holding webinars, teaching classes, doing boot camps, and before you knew it, there was way more supply than there was demand. See, the hospitality industry is amazing. The hospitality industry employs 9% of all people in the world and accounts for nearly 9% of the GDP of our planet. Travel is a gigantic industry, and it's led by smart, big, storied institutions. So for folks to come and figure I'll just compete with them with my little apartment didn't necessarily turn out so well. So there was an airbn bust, and it is still lingering today. If you want to make a profit in short term rentals, you absolutely can, but you need to be super strategic. You need to think long and hard about where and what and why and how, because it's very specific. There are certain markets that short term rentals do very, very well, and there's a lot of markets, the majority of markets, where they don't. So as long as you're willing to study and take a look and be realistic and go kick the dirt a little bit, you certainly can get the upper hand. And the reason it's exciting is the average person who owns a short term rental is not professional in any way. They probably don't have too many other rental properties. It's not a big part of what they're paying attention to in their life. And they're simply trying to liquidate some of the costs of ownership. You know, I might rental here or rental there. And the way you can tell Home Away, VRBO, Airbnb, most of the hosts, the owners, make their calendars public, and so it's easy to tell how busy they are. It's amazing to me. I'll look at a marketplace and look at a property and see that month after month after month they're at a six to 8% occupancy, which I wouldn't be excited about myself, but for someone who's got a second home and they don't mind having people stay there for a few nights, they'll pay a premium for that. They legitimately can carve down a lot of their expenses just by renting six or eight or 10% of the time.    Keith Weinhold  23:58   Of course, the conventional guidance is before you buy a short term rental, you're really helping yourself out. If you have to fall back on turning that into a long term rental, it would cash flow. But of course, now you're really narrowing your criteria in what is going to work there. And Robert, when we talk about that demographic that we're serving, we touched on that in the midterm rentals. Who are we serving in short term rentals? I think conventionally, we think about vacationers and business travelers   Robert Helms  24:24   it's both of those things. I think that originally, people were certainly inspired by the vacation traveler who wanted to have a little more privacy, maybe their own kitchen, maybe a little more space for the dollar. And we still see that for a family, especially a family with small kids, staying at a hotel, ordering room service, eating in the restaurant, all that adds up. And if instead you can go to the grocery store and make breakfast at home, right, you can save the costs. And so there is definitely that clientele, but you also have people in short term rental that are visiting family. They're not really on vacation. In there, just going to an area for a short period of time. We see people that criss cross the country staying in short term rentals, two nights here, three nights there. And so it does have kind of a wide variety. A lot of the markets are very seasonal. Though. There are markets like Branson, Missouri that does really good at some parts of the year and not as well as other parts of the year. Then, of course, there's year round markets. So back to if I'm thinking about it with an investor's hat on, I want to be a little more specific, in particular about what and where I buy. But if I have single family house as my second home, maybe it's in a ski area, maybe it's in a beach area, and it's fairly expensive to maintain. Well, then considering renting it out on a short term basis might help the overall cost of maintaining that property.    Keith Weinhold  25:52   You know, my own personal experiences really started to get bad in short term rentals, when I would go stay in a place. And I think we've all seen those memes out there about, my gosh, I had to wash all the dishes and walk the owner's dog and still play some exorbitant cleaning fee. I think we've all kind of grappled with that at some point, but STRS are still a really viable investment for the majority of the operators. But yeah, Robert, most of my experiences in short term rentals recently, including showing up at a place where they had not done the turn. The cleaning person did not stop by. And, yeah, okay, they came over there properly. But it's like, you cannot unsee the mess that was left there before you were there. So I had a series of experiences lately that have actually steered me into staying in hotels more often. And hotels really fit my lifestyle pretty well. I like to work out at a gym. I like to have a gym on site. It's convenient to have a restaurant on site and so on. And you've been in the hospitality and hotel space serving that for a while. Why don't you talk to us about industry trends in hotels.    Robert Helms  27:03   Yeah. So travelers, to a great degree, love consistency. They want to be able to rely on cleanliness, on amenities, the very things you mentioned for sure. And so hospitality has a wide range, right? There's the lower end airport hotel where nobody stays more than a night, and it doesn't have a lot of amenities, and then there's the beautiful resort properties and everything in between. But what the hotel industry has done a good job of is providing a consistent experience, and that's what people crave more than anything else. You know, we would call a short term rental more of a unique or boutique or co chair kind of experience, and you don't know what you're going to get. You don't have that consistency. Some folks don't mind that, but for the majority, especially of business travelers, they want to know what they're getting. I can remember years ago, my sister wanted to take us on a family vacation to Maui. It sounded like a good idea. And then she was the one tasked with finding us a place, and decided we would stay at the Ritz Carlton and I looked at the Ritz Carlton website and said, Ah, you know, this is not exactly where I would probably stay in a she's a chiropractor. She says, in order for me to take a week off work, I'm losing $10,000 of the business. I'm not staying in some cheap hotel. I want to stay in a luxury hotel. And we did it, and it was fabulous, and I would stay again. So the point is, if you want to be able to work out, if you want to be able to have 24 hour room service, if you want grab and go that you don't have to walk outside in the cold or the heat, then hotels make a lot of sense, and it's not an either or. They're just both elements in hospitality. I would consider a short term rental property, a hospitality property, and I would consider a 1200 room, four and a half star hotel hospitality property as well.   Keith Weinhold  28:58   Sure. Of course, hotels aren't monolithic. There are so many different types. You might have a boutique hotel with a few dozen rooms to a large scale, something like you've been involved in. You've been in a large scale, ground up development for a hotel. And I don't know if you had a hope when you built your large hotel that a big chain like a Hilton or Marriott would buy it from you, or would brand it along with you. But that branding and that consistency of experience can be really important. That's something we especially associate with those larger hotels. So we have some of these things in mind. I mean, where does a new prospective hotel investor begin?   Robert Helms  29:40   Yeah, it's pretty difficult to get started, because the properties are big and expensive and risky upfront. So there's a terminology we use the hotel business, which is stabilization. And stabilization is when a hotel gets to the point where it's doing about the occupancy and rate that you would expect. Respect it too long term, and that might be anywhere from two to four years. Well, in the first year, boy, there's hardly anybody there. We have a 300 plus room hotel, and the first night we were open, we had two guests and 160 employees. So you don't have to be a rocket surgeon to figure out that that math doesn't work very well. Nor did it for the first month or the first year. Today, I'm happy to say it works a lot better, but you have to have patience. Now, there's a couple of ways you can get involved. Certainly, a smaller a boutique hotel. I stayed in a hotel a couple months ago that only had eight rooms. It was marvelous. And I thought, boy, you know, probably an individual owns this, but most of the hotel properties are owned by groups or syndications, and so that's another way to get exposure to hospitality. There's some things to love about hospitality, and to me, one of the same things I love about single families is you can find professional management, like folks that really know what they're doing, and create that guest experience that was perfectly possible for someone to buy a single family home as a rental. Maybe it's in their own town, and they want to manage it themselves. And you know, maybe at first that's a good idea, so you can figure out the game you've chosen, but ultimately, you want to hand that off to a professional, in my opinion. And in hospitality, like in multifamily, you have to, you have to have somebody come in with chops to be able to take care of it. And then there's the nuance of franchise which there are hotels that are just independently owned and operated. And then there's franchise hotels. And just like buying a franchise business, you pay a little more, but you get a lot. You get all the systems and the service and the training and the marks, and many cases, you get a big, dynamic engine that brings leads and fills your heads in your beds, which is what the metric we're interested in, in hospitality. And so when we started with thinking about it might make sense, the market we were in had no branded hotels, and we thought, Well, should we be the first? And after doing a bunch of research, I came to the conclusion that, well, it's going to cost something, and there's going to be a benefit, but I don't see it the benefit outweighing the cost. And we decided not to and then, lo and behold, through a strange set of circumstances, today, we are a branded hotel, and I'm thrilled about it. In hindsight, it was the right thing to do, but do understand that most real estate investors that I know are not going to qualify. It's pretty difficult to get a franchisee agreement with one of these hotel brands. You have to have some wherewithal, some experience. They're going to look at your assets and your balance sheet. They're going to look at more than you can imagine to make sure that you're worth betting on, that they'll put their story name on the outside of your hotel. But it does bring up another point in hospitality, which is there's just multiple streams of income in hospitality. I saw a study last year that showed that in the upper resort markets, the fancier hotels and markets you might go to that the average person whatever they spend on their nightly rate in the hotel, they spend 80 to 85% of that per day on all the other things associated with their stay. Now, some of those are going to be off campus, but the more that you can provide to the guests you've already brought onto the property, the more profitable it can be,   Keith Weinhold  33:25   from resort fees to valets and more. Yes, there certainly is plenty to add on there. Maybe the last thing in hotel investing is, if someone wants to get started, what should they even be looking at, as far as say, understanding some of the metrics, like rev Park. Can you give us a quick walk around that?   Robert Helms  33:45    Yeah, so  if you're used to investing in apartment buildings or single family houses, you've probably seen the basic income formula. You know how to calculate for loss to lease and maybe vacancy and those things. Well, there's just a few more intricacies when it comes to hospitality, but it's not that difficult if you just think that you're renting every night instead of every month or every year, and instead of having my turnover be one tenant every two years, it's one tenant every four days. There's just a lot more to pay attention to. And so the most important metrics in the hospitality industry are obviously occupancy, how many nights our rooms are occupied? And then ADR, which is average daily rate, and that is the rate for a particular unit type on average over some period of time, typically a year. And if you were to multiply occupancy times average daily rate, that gives you a revenue per available room or RevPAR. RevPAR can be affected, and it's the primary metric that we drive to in the two ways, you can increase occupancy to increase your RevPAR, but in many cases, you don't need to increase occupancy if. The market will allow you to raise your average daily rent. We've just gone through in the last year that our occupancy is down about 2% for the year, and our average daily rate is up more than 16% so the math works that follow me on this with slightly less wear and tear on the units our owners are making more money. So it is a balance. It's not like I want maximum occupancy. Well, not necessarily. Hardest thing to manage for any hotel is a sold out night. Sounds like a good idea, but you have no wiggle room, whereas when you've got even 3% vacancy and something goes wrong in the middle of the night with somebody's unit, you can get them moved somewhere down the hall, not somewhere across town. So I would say there are some really great resources. If someone's interested in hospitality. There's a big company called the hotel valuation systems, HVs, and they have a lot of great tutorial information available if you're really interested. Go to a conference, a hotel conference, and you'll pick up the lingo pretty quick and meet some of the folks that are in the business. It is, historically, one of the highest return properties, but also a lot of high costs, and again, expect some negative cash flow at the beginning.   Keith Weinhold  36:18   Yeah. Well, it was great. And you brought up something that I had not thought about before, about how 100% occupancy could actually introduce problems in the hotel space. And of course, there are a number of other things to consider, surge pricing, high seasons, low seasons, an awful lot that we don't think about when we're renting out single family homes one year at a time. Well, Robert, that's been a great walk around talking about the institutional space, midterm rentals, short term rentals and hotels, and you and I have a great collaboration coming up together. Why don't you tell our audience about it?   Robert Helms  36:55   Oh my gosh. I am so thrilled that you'll be joining us again for our 23rd annual Investor Summit at sea. This event we do once a year, and by its name, you can probably tell that the majority of it happens on a cruise ship. We spend two days in beautiful Miami at a great hotel, then we jump on a luxury cruise ship for seven days. On the days that we're at sea, it's workshops and seminars and panel discussions and round table lunch discussions and all kinds of fun. And on the sea day, on the land days, we go have a good time together. It's extraordinary. You've been with us before, and I'm super excited to have you back with us on faculty, and excited that we're going to get to brainstorm a little bit with a couple other podcasters. So some of the OGS are going to be on this particular summit.    Keith Weinhold  37:43   Yes, it is June 20 to 29th this year, where we spend the first two days on land in Miami, and then we spend a week cruising to the Bahamas, St Thomas in St Martin. We're doing it on a beautiful ship, the celebrity beyond. So as one of the faculty members, you'll get to see me do a 50 to 60 minute presentation, a couple of lunch, round table discussions. I might be on a panel or two, and also host a table for dinner each night where participants like you rotate around at the tables, and that way you get to chat directly with most or all of the faculty members. That way. Yes, Robert, I was there in 2016 as an attendee. It's great to finally come back as a faculty member. I will be putting the second pepper on the necklace.   Robert Helms  38:29   All right. Well, it's gonna be a ton of fun. And the great thing about it is we have people from all over the world that come and you get in these awesome conversations. You know, you go to a one day or two days seminar, and you get to connect with some people, but boy, and this week, you're going to have a chance to meet all kinds of folks. And the faculty is amazing. Our mutual friend Ken McElroy will be back with us for his 12th year. Peter Schiff's going to be back with us again. We've got the George gammon coming. Brian London, who runs the New Orleans investment conference that you and I usually rub shoulders at, and ton more, just a really great time. And if you're serious about collapsing time frames, you can get more done in nine days on the Investor Summit that you can probably get of two years of just haphazardly going to conferences and watching webinars and listening to podcasts   Keith Weinhold  39:18   you will see what we mean if you attend, about putting a pepper on the necklace and what that is all about. I can tell you from attending in 2016 just one previous appearance there. It is the greatest real estate event that I have ever attended. It's really immersive. It's really fun. Of course, you get off on these ports, and there's a beach component to it as well. It's not a low cost event, but as I like to say, it's not cheap, but neither are you.   Robert Helms  39:50   It is an investment, that's for sure. I think it's important that you approach it that way, right? As investors, we demand a return. On our investment, and you should do that on the summit. Don't just show up and have a party time. That'll be great. It'll be fun. But be strategic about who you want to meet, who you want to hang out with, and who you want to learn from. The faculty is like no other. We'll have at least 15 faculty members. There's a couple more that we're working on, whose names you would know, but we are not ready to announce yet, but it's going to be so much fun. Oftentimes, the best people you meet, you meet at dinner, or you meet at the beach, or you meet out on deck. So we'd love to have you join us and tell you what, if someone is listening to your show, Keith, and they would love to have dinner with you. All they have to do is let us know that when they register say, you know, I want a chance to have meal with Keith, and I think we can make that happen.    Keith Weinhold  40:45   Oh, that's great. And, you know, Robert, it's rare. It's the type of event where, even though it's been nine years since I was there, you developed such a close kinship with the like minded attendees that, you know, I might see a some of it's a Facebook friend now, you know, Steve or Dave or something. And I'll always remember, oh yeah, I met Steve on real estate guys Investor Summit to see it's almost like a relationship you would have with, like, a long ago high school classmate, to be around each other for nine days and all these places. It just kind of brings this different element to it. You can learn more at Investorsummitatsea.com, and get registered there. You can see my smiling face in the faculty section along with the other faculty members. Remember, it's really about all the other people that you meet. You have any last thoughts about the terrific Investor Summit at Sea Robert?   Robert Helms  41:36    I would just say that in life, we tend to regret the things that we don't do a lot more than the things that we do. So get on board. You'll have an amazing time. No matter how great we say it is. It's better than that. It's like summer camp for the affluent, summer camp. As a kid, you didn't want to go, you weren't sure, and by the end, you were lifelong buddies. It's like that. It's investing on steroids. The photo ops are amazing, and you'll meet super cool people, plus you'll get the hangout with Keith and I. So I would say join us for the 23rd annual investors Summit.   Keith Weinhold  42:14   There's wisdom out there that says you should say no to more things in life, and in one tranche, that makes sense, and you also need to say yes to more things in life that fits the category. Here with the Great Investor Summit at Sea I really anticipated. It's one of my biggest events of the year. And Robert, it's been great having you back on the show.   Robert Helms  42:35   Thanks so much, Keith, and appreciate your listeners. Listening in today. Don't quit your Daydream    Keith Weinhold  42:42   Well, said.   Next week on the show, we talk about how to streamline the operations at your rental properties. Is it better to own rental property with, say, two bathrooms rather than one, or is that just another faucet that can leak and shower that can leak and toilet that can clog, and the pros and cons of allowing your tenant to have a pet in your rental unit, it's those sort of operational things and more that we help you improve next week right here on The GRE podcast, it's interesting about investing in a hotel to such a large scale that you can court major franchise branding, like with Hilton, Marriott Wyndham or Hyatt, which Robert has successfully done. And I have visited that property of his with him in person, and it's amazing what he's done there. And you know something, I have rarely met an American, or any global resident that is averse to staying at a branded hotel. I mean, that only seems to be an attractant. Now in the US, some people, they used to dislike franchise restaurants. I even remember people saying, Hey, we don't need another chain restaurant in my town. But I've never seen people scorn chain hotels and today, I mean, in the here and now, people seem to want both franchise restaurants and hotels. I mean today, you're more likely to hear something like hey. When is our town getting a Chick fil A? Why don't we have one yet? And of course, there is plenty of opportunities in these shorter term stay spaces without ever attracting a branding deal, major thanks to the terrific Robert helms today for his keen insight on shorter term rental real estate. This event, June's investor summon at sea is such a good time, and Robert really knows how to host it and make sure you have a good time. After doing it for more than 20 years, it is a rich, immersive experience with people, places, learning and. And relationship building. It's the type of experience that you just can't get from an Instagram reel. It does draw attendees worldwide, although most attendees were from the US when I was there that one previous time. When you register, if you want to make sure that you get dinner with me, let them know, and we'll make it happen, because we know that you haven't heard enough of my voice every single week for more than a decade now, right? In my opinion, it is the crown jewel of world real estate investing events start at Investorsummitatsea.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker  45:46   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  46:14   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com  

In this episode of Durable Value, Ryan Swehla sits down with Peter Finley, head of institutional capital markets at Graceada Partners. With his extensive background in real estate and capital markets, Peter shares invaluable insights from his days in the Navy to navigating market cycles on Wall Street. He discusses the evolution of institutional landscapes, his experiences during the S&L crisis, GFC, and more. We get a detailed look into the cyclical nature of the financial markets and timeless wisdom for upcoming capital raisers.00:00 Introduction 00:27 Peter's Journey: From Navy to Goldman Sachs01:01 Navigating Market Cycles and Layoffs01:58 Transition to Private Equity02:46 Raising Capital and UBS Experience03:09 Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis07:02 The Misuse of Leverage in Real Estate08:54 Lessons from the Navy11:09 Fundraising Challenges and Successes16:57 Advice for Aspiring Capital Raisers17:46 Conclusion

Keith answers listener questions about getting started in real estate investing with limited funds and how to determine the true appreciation of a property against inflation. He also discusses: The impact of the LA wildfires on housing needs and some landlords raising rents excessively. Economic and housing challenges facing Canada, including high inflation and unaffordable home prices. And highlights the views of likely future Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre on addressing these issues. GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/538 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I answer three of your listener questions, then learn why LA area landlords got a bad name during this month's awful Southern California wildfires. Finally, why Canadians cannot buy houses anymore, and what lessons you can learn from Canada's real estate mistakes and the abject lunacy there today on get rich education.   Unknown Speaker  0:30   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Unknown Speaker  1:16   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:32   Welcome to GRE from Gatlinburg, Tennessee to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside this week's installment of the program known as get rich education, I'm grateful that you're here, but you're not here for me. You are here for you. So let's talk about you and some of the listener questions that you wrote into the show about and as usual, whenever I have a batch of listener questions, I answer the beginner level questions first and then move on to more advanced questions. The first one comes from Jeanette in Seaford, Delaware. Jeanette asks, I only have a little money to invest in real estate. How do I get started with just a small amount of money. All right, Jeanette, well, first I would talk to a lender. You have to talk to a mortgage specialist or a loan officer to find out what you qualify for. You're basically getting them to punch holes into your financial picture. And then that way, Jeanette, you will know what holes to go, mend, so your loan officer is essentially giving you a free troubleshooting session. Now, our investment coaches here at GRE help you with some of that, but GRE doesn't originate loans, so you want to get with someone like a ridge lending group for help. And now, what are some of the holes that a mortgage lender might poke into your finances? Jeanette, well, getting your credit score up and they'll help you with that strategy. Or you simply need more dollars in savings, in what your mortgage loan underwriter calls reserves, or you might need to establish a two year job history, or you have to say, Pay off your car loan in order to get your debt to income ratio lower, or whatever it is. And since at GRE marketplace, the least expensive income property is probably about $120,000right now, a number that keeps going up with inflation. But what you would need is 23 to 25% of that between your down payment and closing costs, all right? Jeanette, so then about 28 to 30k that is the minimum lump of cash that you'll need to buy a property that is already fixed up and ready for a tenant, and that is a great way to start in real estate investing if you want to maintain your standard of living, okay, that is therefore the lowest entry point that you can do that. But if you're temporarily willing to let your quality of life slide for a couple years and maybe live communally. You can put as little as 3% down on a primary residence and then rent out the other rooms. Okay, that's the house hacking model, but depending on your setup, you know, maybe you're sharing a kitchen with roommates or suitemates, and therefore that temporary loss in quality of life. Maybe you can even Airbnb at a short term rental, in which case you will be buying the furniture. However, now with a 3% down payment on an owner occupied house, hack like that, you're probably going to have to pay a PMI premium, a private mortgage insurance premium of a few $100 per month. But still, this does get you in with very little money, since that's what you're asking about Jeanette. And finally, the third thing I'll bring up here is that you can get a combination of maintaining your standard of living and putting a small down payment on a property by using an FHA loan and three and a half percent down. And you can do that with a single family home, duplex, triplex or four Plex, living in one unit and renting out the others. So yes, you get both this way, but I will not go into the details on the FHA, because I have described that in detail on other episodes since it's how I started out myself. But there are a number of options right there for you to inquire about Jeanette, all starting with an investment centric mortgage lender like Ridgelendinggroup.com.     The next question comes from Jared in Pocatello, Idaho. Jared asks Keith, in the past year, my duplex in Pocatello went up in value 5% from 400k to 420k. How do I know how much of that 5% is true appreciation, and what portion of the 5% is from inflation? Oh, that is such a devastatingly cool question Jared, and that's exactly what I thought when I saw that question come in. Okay, so basically, Jared is asking, say, in this 5% price increase is 3% from inflation and 2% from appreciation, for example, or like, what is the breakout of those two components of the price change? And a lot of people don't understand the difference, and even know enough to ask a question this good. So props to you there. Jared. One thing you cannot do is just look at CPI inflation over the last year for the US, which is 2.9% and then say, Oh, well, then I guess the other 2.1% must be appreciation. Therefore, no, you can't really do that. There's more to it than that, for a lot of reasons. I mean consumer price inflation, like on a pound of ground beef at the supermarket, that is different from asset price inflation, and there are a lot of other reasons too. Appreciation is distinctly different from inflation, because the value of your property increasing 5% that has to do with the attractiveness of your property to the marketplace. Now there are attributes with appreciation, like proximity to high paying jobs, proximity to highways and shopping in desirable schools, which are basically those axiomatic Location, location, location qualities. Now I'm going to assume that you did not make an improvement or a renovation to the property Jared, because obviously that would hike up the value. Now other appreciation attributes that are distinctly different from inflation are things like population growth and wage growth in your area, what can really pump up appreciation is if the remaining availability of developable land starts shrinking and shriveling up in a desirable location. Contrary to popular belief, mortgage rates have little to do with appreciation. We can leave that out of this discussion. Now, how this is different from inflation is that inflation is not about the intrinsic value. Rather, inflation is the price of the home increasing because the currency is worth less. Now I hope that you find that explanation satisfying Jared, but what is dissatisfying is that it's actually hard to pin down a number and say, was this two and a half percent appreciation and two and a half percent inflation, or any other combination? And that's because inflation itself is practically impossible to accurately measure, and a lot of that has to do with an inflationary basket of goods that is just exceedingly difficult to adjust for attributes like quality and utility and substitution So Jerry did is likely that your duplexes 5% value increase is an amalgamation of both appreciation and inflation, that part I can confirm, but the exact breakdown for each is virtually incalculable, super insightful question there Jared.     The third and final of our three listener questions to get the show started today, and then I'll get into landlords in the LA wildfires and Canada versus us real estate. The final question today is from Jeter in Roseville, California. I know where Roseville is. It's just northeast of Sacramento, and I'm not sure if Jeter j, e t, e r is your first name or your last name, like former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, but only one name came in here. Jeter asks, Keith, I am a true believer in GRE principles. I'm looking to pounce on some property this year and get leverage and other people's money working for me, instead of only getting my money to work for me in my company's 401 k. Let me just interject here. You really get it. You really get it. Jeter, um, continuing on with your question, with mortgage rates around 7% I'd love to know where you think interest rates are headed next, and what is going to make rates move. Thanks, Jeter. Well, I've got to tell you, Jeter, not only do I avoid predicting future interest rates, but I don't know of anyone in the world that can predict interest rates with high reliability, especially over the medium to long term. James Grant, He's based in New York City. He puts out a publication called Grant's Interest Rate Observer that might just give you a better than 5050, shot of where they're headed next. He's a well regarded source. In fact, I saw James Grant speak in person a couple months ago, but I wouldn't put too much credence in any interest rate predictor out there. Now, just 11 days ago, I sent our newsletter subscribers a graphic of just how bad. I mean, really awful that recent interest rate predictions have been. I've never seen a chart like this. This chart looked like a centipede. Okay, the Bold Line was the actual federal funds rate that was like the centipedes body and all the hundreds of legs coming off this line were predictions that others had made, all deviating from the true line, the centipede body, which is what the rate really was. I mean, prominent experts rate predictions have a track record that's more abysmal than everyone saying we'd surely have a man on Mars, by now, terrible. Jeter. When you look at interest rate predictions, you're looking at a waste of your time. They're about as reliable as a weather app in a tornado a year ago, the collective brain trusts of all the economic wizards believed with devotion and alacrity that mortgage rates would be sub six now, instead, they are still about seven, which might correspond to a three or three and a half percent federal funds rate. They all thought the federal funds rate would be near three by now, but it's more like four and a half today. And what's hilarious is that, in more recent years, the Fed even tells us what they plan to do next. They even tell us it's little like having the answers to the test, and yet you still fail the test. You've got the cheat sheet and you still aren't doing any better? How can this possibly be? Well, the reason that I don't make interest rate predictions is because it is a surefire way to look foolish. Jeter, to answer the second part of your question, what moves interest rates around? The answer is, well, it's really broad economic forces and political forces, that is why it's tough, and this includes jobs reports, supply and demand of credit, inflation, a pandemic, a surprise new war in the Middle East, tariffs, GDP reports, surprise election outcomes, a massive change in tax policy and more. I mean, it is total entropy. Now, one thing we know is that persistently higher inflation will soon result in higher rates, just like we saw in 2022 I mean, rates rise in a bullish, robust and optimistic economy. And another thing that we do know is that sustained fear causes rates to fall. That's why, when you look at a chart, you see interest rates of all kinds plunge like a cliff diver during the 2001 dot com recession, the 2008 GFC and the 2020 COVID pandemic. The reason that rates fall during fearful times just like those, is because the economy needs the help and a little pro tip for you here, Jeter, when a recession begins, it's more likely than not that rates will fall. But see, it can be hard to predict a recession, as we've all found out recently, we just came off three fed interest rate cuts late last year, and that was a little weird, because the economy does not need the help that is sort of like offering Gatorade to someone that's not even sweating. Okay, and when rates scrape the ocean bottom floor at zero, from 2009 to 2016 and then again from 2020, to 2022,that's unhealthy. Natural market forces would mean that there's a cost to receive a service like borrowing money. Well, with zero rates, it feels like no one wants to save and everyone wants to borrow and spend. Zero rates, it is time to all out. Ball out. My two time GRE podcast guest here on the show, and super smart guy, Dr Chris Martinson, he thinks that rates are generally going to go higher from here. But you don't have to look far. You can find other wise guys that say they're going lower. At the last Fed meeting last year, they disappointed markets by signaling plans to only cut rates twice this year, instead of the four cuts that were previously expected. And now that's even changed since then, a lot of people question if those two cuts are even going to happen this year, given things like a hot jobs report that came flying in and still too high inflation. So this is kind of like expecting a decadent dessert of rate cuts, and instead you get, like, one Biscoff cookie, like they give you an economy on the plane. So Jeter, that's why I don't forecast rates. I don't think anyone can, but now, at least you have a couple resources, and you also know what factors move rates around.    Now if you want a fun, real time pulse on the market. Check out poly market. You might have heard of it by now. It's a site where you can place bets on various outcomes, a lot of non sports bets. You can see people put their money where their mouth is. You don't have to make a wager yourself. You can just see what people are wagering on. There are wagers on fed interest rate decisions. There at Poly market, you can even place a bet on if Jerome Powell says Good afternoon at his next press conference over there on Poly market, I'm not kidding right now, the odds of him saying Good afternoon at his next press conference are 96% so remember this, the market has always felt confident about where rates are headed, and the market has always been wrong. Interest rates don't drive property values. Their intrinsic worth is based on the timeless stuff, location, amenities, income, occupancy, size, density, business case, exit options and operating costs. Those are the things that drive property values. The bottom line with interest rates is that nobody knows the future interest rates direction is a pinball game of black swans and policy pivots. So instead, focus on the big things that you can control, like how many dollars you have, leveraging properties and keeping your operations on those properties efficient. So Jeter waiting to buy property generally harms an investor more than it helps them, because it's dollars on the sidelines that are paying the opportunity cost of not leveraging other people's money. Of course, if you buy your property at whatever interest rate today, and rates soon fall like a knife, well, then you can refinance at the lower rate, all while leverage keeps compounding and building your wealth. Thanks for the question,  Jeter.    If you have a listener question or comment or feedback of any type for us, as always, you can visit us at get rich education.com/contactfor either written or voice communication there, like I said earlier, that amazingly interesting centipede like chart of just how dreadful interest rate predictions have really been that was in our recent newsletter. Now it's too late for you to get that issue, but to get more like them, you can get our don't Quit your Daydream. Newsletter, completely free, just text GRE to 66866 that's text GRE to 66866.   now, when it comes to this month's historically bad, devastating LA area wildfires, I heard from a friend in that area last week. She lives just south of LA and her house was spared, fortunately, but she's been busy helping friends in the LA area who have lost their homes and businesses. It is truly tragic. And you know, what she told me, is the biggest, most compelling need right now, and I put some credence in this, since it's an independent on the ground report. This is outside of major media, displaced residents. Number one need is not food, it's not water, it's not clothing, it's not heat, it's not even community with 1000s of families without homes, the urgent need is for housing. You might not find that surprising. That's what she shared with me. I mean, it is a need so dire that even a family of six would consider a small mobile home or an RV rental to help with temporary housing. And a lot of these displaced families were you know, you got to consider the fact that before the fire, they were living in above average homes, even luxury homes. Now, as far as LA area, landlords that have housing to rent out, a lot of those landlords have jacked up the rent price. California's anti price gouging. Laws make it illegal for landlords to raise rent by more than 10% in the first month to six months after a disaster is declared. Now the BBC reported that one resident who lost their home in the historic California wildfires found a rental property that was previously priced at $13,000 per month, they offered $20,000 per month, and the landlord countered with 23k that is a 75% price hike. And it's not the only example. A Bel Air home located in an evacuation warning zone was listed on Zillow recently at 29,500bucks a month. That is an 86% hike from its September of last year price. That's according to the outlet called La est, another realtor raised in Encino, California, listing from 9k per month at the beginning of this month to 11 and a half K after the fires started. That's according to the LA Times. The realtor then backpedaled to abide by the 10% rule, which she said that she did not know about. And for a little context there, yes, those rent prices sound high, and La rent was already high. It averaged $2,820 a month. That's compared to $1,983a month nationally. Those figures are per Zillow. Now I don't know what percentage of La landlords are engaging in. I guess what I'll call extortionate behavior, but even if it's the vast minority of landlords you know that gives them a bad name, to have the word landlord in headlines like this. And is this behavior extortionate? In some cases, it probably is, I suspect, just a guess here that some landlords might think they have a chance of insurance paying some or all of the higher rent for their tenant that was displaced from their original home. But let's keep things in perspective here. What this does to good landlords reputations. You know, that's not the story here. The story and the effort should be in helping the displaced people. And of course, there are so many angles to the devastating la wildfires. One of them is that many believe zoning laws pushed homes out into fire prone areas. I recently shared that reason.com article with you in our free newsletter. So again, to get our Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, completely free, which I write every word of myself. Text GRE to 6866 you can do it now, while it's on your mind, hit pause and text GRE to 66866 the abject lunacy in Canada's real estate market, in what US residents and others can learn from all this, that's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   Hey, you. Can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Oh geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866   Naresh Vissa  26:41   this is GRE real estate investment coach. Naresh Vissa don't live below your means, grow your needs. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  26:57   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, let's discuss the Canadian economy and Canadian real estate. Because even if you live in the US or Central America or Europe or one of the other 187 nations that were heard in outside the US, you know there are lessons here for you, and there are lessons here for me as well. There is some just jaw dropping material that I'm about to share with you, and I won't discuss the politics of it, because that's not GRE 's lane. Instead, it is the policy. Earlier this month, Canada's equivalent of the President, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he will be resigning soon. And Trudeau has been under a lot of criticism. At last check, his approval rating was a miserable 22% now, most people think that the next and future Prime Minister of Canada will be a man named Pierre Poilievre. In fact, the wagering site poly market has polyev with an over 80% chance of being Canada's next prime minister, and you will hear him speak shortly here. And yes, that is how an Anglophone pronounces his last name, polyev In a recent interview with Dr Jordan Peterson. You'll listen into here shortly. Polyev, Canada's likely next leader here, first, he describes some of the problems with Canada's economy, and then he'll get into their real estate market. Right now, the median home price in the United States is about 450k you might think that Canada's should be lower, because Canada has more land in the US and Canada has just about 1/9 of the US population. So a low population density. I mean, the US is population density is more than 10 times Canada's. But no, due to some of these policies, it's just the opposite, because Canada's average home is over 725k. yeah, that's just for a basic home. I've got to admit, I did not know who polyev was until just a couple months ago. I'm starting to like him the more that I listen to him. He's a clear thinker and a clear speaker. Here is a clip of Canada's likely next leader talking about Canada's problems. This is 10 and a half minutes long. I'm going to listen to this again with you right now, and then I will come back along with you to comment. This is why you can't buy a house in Trudeau, Canada.    Unknown Speaker  29:41   Our productivity is another major problem right now, and that's productivity. Sounds complicated. It's actually extremely simple. You just take the GDP and you divide it by the hours worked in the country. So American GDP is $80 so for every hour an American worker works, on average. He or she produces $80 of GDP in Canada, it 50. So that's every hour. So that means we have to work 60% more just to make the same amount and have the same level of income to buy food and housing. And so that's the Now that sounds like a bunch of wonk speak that should might seem like it only matters to someone staring at a spreadsheet or a graph or a chart, but in fact, that's reflected in the fact that our 2 million people are lined up at food banks because they can't afford food, and 80% of youth can't afford homes, and our quality of life is and the things we can afford to provide our kids have fallen back so much there's a real, real life, Stark and easily comprehensible statistic. And if you work and you produce $80 worth of goods and services in an hour, yeah, compared to working and producing 50, obviously, that's a substantial shortfall. Yeah. So, and is that, is there a starker indicator of the economic disparity between the US and Canada than that? Or do you think that's the primary statistic? I mean, I think housing costs are another one. I mean, right. There was a study out just 10 days ago that has Toronto and Vancouver now by far the most unaffordable housing markets in North America. And so you know, housing costs are 50% higher in Toronto than they are in Chicago, even though Chicago workers make 50% more money. The same is true between Vancouver and Seattle. Seattle workers make way more than Vancouver workers, but housing is 60 or 70% more expensive in Vancouver. So on, all the measures by a lot. Yes, a lot by a lot. Yeah, and we're and we're paying more, more by a lot, right? And most of that's transpired the last 10 years. Yes, and we're paying the difference by accumulating enormous quantities of debt. Our households are by far the most indebted in the g7. when you take you divide total household debt by GDP, we now have a bigger stock of household debt than our entire economy. We are more indebted as households than the Americans were right before the oh eight financial crisis. And so what we have as a model in Canada is we have artificial scarcity imposed by very heavy and restrictive state, confiscatory state, so that suppresses production. But in order to allow for consumption, we print money and borrow money and then flood the economy with that money. Okay, so that's another problem. So that's the inflationary problem. Yes. Now the problem with inflation just many problems with inflation, but one of them is that it particularly punishes people who are thrifty and who save? Yes, right, right? So inflation punishes the people who forego gratification to invest in the future. That's right, right? So that's a very bad idea. It's our inflation is the single most immoral tax for so many reasons. One, it takes from savers and people who are trying to be responsible, thus making it impossible to be responsible, because you will, if you, if you refuse to play the inflation game of borrowing money to buy things you can't afford, someone else inevitably will, and you won't be able to afford anything. So you ultimately have to actor responsibly. It's like Milton Friedman was asked, What would you do with your money in times of inflation? He said, spend it right like the first thing you want to do when inflation is out of control is to make sure you get rid of this thing that's losing its value. The second reason it's immoral is it takes from the poor, because the poorest people cannot put they do not have the ability to buy inflation proof assets like gold and real estate and fancy watches and art collections and wine fancy wines and things that go up with or even exceed inflation. So it's a very big wealth transfer from the have to the from the from the poor and the working class to the very, very wealthy, a very small group of people actually get richer. So the socialist policies that provide goods and services to Canadians, let's say, or denizens of other countries by printing money, actually punish the poor brutally. Oh, absolutely, and consequence of the inflation that they generate. Yes, I mean all the socialist policies in practice take redistribute from the working class to the super wealthy in practice, and I can prove that again and again and again in practice, yeah, in practice. In practice they with the all the redistribution that happens in the so called socialist countries ultimately goes from the working class to the super wealthy. That is the reality. Okay, so, but just one last thing on inflation. The final reason why it's so immoral is nobody votes on it. The basic principle of our parliamentary system is the government can't tax what parliament has not voted the people must no taxation without representation, right? But no one ever votes to have the money printing happen. And so the inflation is adopted secretly, and you blame the grocer because groceries are more expensive, or your local gas station because gas is more or your realtor because house, in fact, it was actually the government that bid up all of those things with money printing, and you didn't even know about it. So it is silent. It's a silent thief that takes from the poor and gives to the richest people and destroys the working class. And that's why I am I want to crush inflation. We need a policy that seeks to just to stop inflation at all, at all costs. Okay, so what would you do to to stop inflation? Well, we stopped the money printing. You know, we need a we need. And the money printing is just a means to fund deficit spending. Governments borrow to define the deficit, yeah, for people. So basically, the deficit is the difference between what the government spends and what it brings in. It's usually calculated on a yearly basis, that's right, yeah, and the debt, but the debt is just the accumulation of the deficits, right? So the deficit right now is $62 billion and I thought it had a ceiling of 41 billion. Yeah, right. Isn't that a ceiling? Yes, not a I guess not. And look, there are very real present day consequences for that. Deficits increase the money supply. Central banks effectively facilitate that increase in the money supply, and that causes inflation. And, you know, it's, it's why our, you know, I have a buddy who's whose family moved here from Italy back in 1973 His father worked paving roads and his mother made sandwiches in a senior's home, they were able to pay off their home 10 minutes from Parliament Hill in seven years. Right, their grandchildren wouldn't be able to save up a down payment for that home in 15 years, and they will be university educated with all the advantages of having been here two decades. That is the consequence of the money supply growing vastly quicker than the stuff that money buys. So we have to do is stop growing the money supply and start growing the stuff money buys. Right? Produce more energy, grow more food, build more homes. We have to unleash the free enterprise system to produce more stuff of value, and this is where we have to remove the artificial scarcity that the government is imposing on the population. Let's incentivize our municipalities to grant the fastest building permits in the world to build homes. You have a plan for that in principle, yes, I mean, I'm going to say to the municipal governments, they either, they either speed up permits, cut Development Charges and free up land, or they will lose their federal infrastructure money, so they will have a powerful carrot and stick incentive to speed up home building and the percentage of a new house price. That's a consequence of government, taxation and regulation. Well, in Vancouver, it's 60% 66 does that include the land and the house? Yes, that includes everything. So I'll tell you how they calculate it, CD, how took the cost of building a compare the cost of building a home to the cost of buying a home, yeah. And he said, what's the gap between those two things? So they added up land, labor, profit for the developer, materials, and they compared that to the sale price, and they found the gap was $1.2 million so that's $1.2 million of extra cost, above and beyond the materials, the labor, the land and the profit for the developer. So where's that going? Well? The answer is, development charges,sales taxes, land transfer taxes, the delays in getting the permit. Time is money, the consultants, lawyers, accountants, lobbyists that the developer has to hire in order to get the approval that so in other words, we're spending twice in Vancouver. We spend twice as much on bureaucrats than we do on all other things combined. To build a home, more money goes to bureaucrats than goes to the carpenters, electricians and plumbers who build the place. And to add insult to injury, those trades people who build homes can't afford to live in them, right? I mean, it is. So what we need to do is slash the bureaucracy. And I'm going to I'm going to say to the mayors, you're not getting federal infrastructure money until you slash your development charges, speed up your permits. I'm going to take. The Federal GST off new homes under a certain limit, and encourage the provinces to do the same. But we've got so much land. We should have the most affordable housing in the world. We have. It should be dirt cheap because we have the most dirt we just need to get the government out of the way.    Keith Weinhold  40:20   Yeah, again, that was Dr Jordan Peterson interviewing Canada's likely next leader, Pierre poilievre, just a few weeks ago now. Polyev, when discussing inflation and investing, you know, he also brought up points that I've surfaced here on the show over the past few years. He even articulates a few things the way I've described them. It's almost weird, like inflation means that it actually makes sense to strategically borrow and spend and not to save. It's almost like polyev is a GRE listener. I love how he said, stop growing the money supply and start growing the things that money buys. We're talking about things like homes and energy and food. That was eloquent. I mean, in Vancouver, the percentage of a new house cost for taxation and regulation is 60% of the cost of the home, fully 60 and then, if that's not surprising enough, due to all these layers of regulation, the cost of building a new home is $1.2 million more than the cost of buying an existing home. Just astounding. This might have even left you either flabbergasted or gobsmacked, which one?So some parallels to the US there in Canada, but back here in the US, the housing market is clearly more affordable and healthier. Polyev really pointed out a direction that the US does not want to fall into. In fact, we've got a pretty good Canadian listening contingent. So let me ask, Do you have a connection to Pierre poilievre, if you do, we would probably like to invite him here on to the show with us. If you do, or you even know someone that knows someone, let us know right into get rich education.com/contact or email us directly at info@get rich education.com and we'll make that happen now. What is happening at GRE marketplace right now is that our listeners are getting brand new build investment property in Florida and some other places at competitive prices and a fixed interest rate of just four and three quarters percent. So yes, that is sub Canadian prices, by far below Canadian prices, and a four and three quarter percent rate. And then on top of that, you get to pay an affordable insurance premium in Florida because it's new build, or similarly, it's that way in other states if you buy new build, but builders overbuilt in some pockets of Florida, like I've mentioned to you before. So at this time, on top of all that, they're offering a free full year of property management. And because when you own a new build property, it's not occupied with tenants on day one, and this means that you don't inherit unknown tenants. And builders are also offering you up to three months in a rent guarantee in case your single family home or duplex or four Plex is not occupied yet, the builder would pay the rent for you. Really amazing incentives, but probably none better than that four and three quarter percent mortgage rate. I mean, it's like you get to roll the clock back to when rates were artificially low, back in 2021, and 2022, and lock it in. Now, our GRE investment coaches connect you with the investment property that's right for you based on your needs and your goals, including those four and three quarter percent rates, if you so choose, it is all free at GRE marketplace. From GRE marketplace.com just click on the coaching area and you can book a time right there until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.    Unknown Speaker  44:23   nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively   Unknown Speaker  44:51   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education.com you.  

Matthew Baron is the Founder and President of BPG, Formed in 2021, BPG has an active development pipeline totaling nearly 4 million square feet and over 3,600 new residential units, valued at over $2 billion. Under Matthew Baron's leadership, the company's current portfolio includes large-scale mixed-use and rental residential development projects in Long Island City, Queens, and Manhattan's Washington Heights neighborhood, as well as the Miami metro area cities of Hialeah and Coral Gables.Baron Property Group is a vertically integrated real estate development and investment firm. Leveraging over 30 years of real estate experience, they develop residential and commercial properties nationwide, emphasizing New York, Miami, and Los Angeles.Connect & Invest with Jake:Follow Jake on X: https://x.com/JWurzak1 on 1 coaching with Jake: https://www.jakewurzak.com/coachingLearn How to Invest with DoveHill: https://bit.ly/3yg8PwoLinks:Baron Property GroupMatthew on LinkedInTopics:(00:00:00) - Intro(00:01:10) - Life in NY RE(00:3:00) - Matthew's early career(00:18:27) - Matt's first deal(00:23:52) - Pivoting into hotels(00:28:08) - Starting a company during the GFC(00:31:23) - Focusing on MF development(00:34:36) - Mitigating risk(00:36:30) - Location nuances(00:42:03) - Design and construction(00:46:24) - What's stopping you from developing more projects?(00:51:23) - Dealing with Unions(00:53:01) - Getting into the Miami market(00:54:10) - Identifying partners(00:59:52) - Building out a team(01:02:20) - What are you most worried about in the business?(01:05:42) - What's the biggest opportunity in Miami?(01:09:07) - Hold strategies(01:11:08) - What is your favorite hotel?

Start at the beginning with episode 1 of the podcast series at davidrovics.com/ahistoryoftheworld or just listen to episode 11 here. 2004-2008 The Abu Ghraib prison torture scandal breaks in the New York Times (“After We Torture Our Prisoners”) Neocon architect of the Iraq occupation, Paul Wolfowitz, is appointed head of the World Bank (“Paul Wolfowitz”) Cindy Sheehan starts camping out in front of President Bush's ranch (“Song for Cindy Sheehan”) Hurricane Katrina and government ineptitude kill thousands of people in New Orleans (“New Orleans”) Construction of Israel's Apartheid Wall in Palestine begins (“They're Building a Wall”) Israel invades Lebanon in 2006, killing thousands (“Lebanon, 2006”) My dear friend and longtime activist and musician Brad Will is killed by paramilitaries in Oaxaca, Mexico (“Brad”) Rod Coronado spends eight months in prison for giving a speech (“Burn It Down”) The premier squatted social center in Denmark, Ungdomshuset, is destroyed by the Danish government, setting in motion a new social movement (“Ungdomshuset's Microphone”) The Global Financial Crisis leads to massive protests in Iceland (“Iceland, 2008”) The GFC leads to massive protests in Greece, too, in which a dog named Loukanikos plays a prominent role (“Riot Dog”) Founders of the Holy Land Foundation are charged with supporting terrorism, and five men are sentenced to between 15 and 65 years in prison (“Holy Land 5”)

In this episode, I sit down with Avi Greenbaum to discuss his entrepreneurial journey and the decisions that defined his career. Avi shares his early ventures, including trading baseball cards as a child and running a travel business in college, which laid the groundwork for his approach to business. We explore how his ability to spot opportunities and his drive led him from Wall Street trading desks to ventures in software, real estate, and more.Our conversation dives into Avi's entry into real estate, where he recounts his first deal in condo conversions and how he handled financing, zoning, and market trends. Avi explains how he built teams, used creative financing structures, and launched a mortgage bank to support his projects. His insights into market cycles and strategic pivots offer lessons in risk management and adaptability.We also explore Avi's ventures in urban redevelopment, including his work in Delray Beach, Florida. From assembling parcels of land to transforming properties, Avi's stories are full of lessons on perseverance, negotiation, and vision. This episode provides practical wisdom and a behind-the-scenes look at how Avi turned entrepreneurial efforts into success.Connect & Invest with Jake:Follow Jake on X: https://x.com/JWurzak1 on 1 coaching with Jake: https://www.jakewurzak.com/coachingLearn How to Invest with DoveHill: https://bit.ly/3yg8PwoLinks:Triple Double RE - https://www.tripledoublere.com/Avi on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewgreenbaum/Topics:(00:00:00) - Intro(00:01:36) - Avi's background and career(00:25:46) - Getting deals done in South FL in the GFC(00:52:34) - How to negotiate well(01:11:02) Avi on Workforce housing (01:24:26) - Hotel conversions(01:33:22) - What deals won't you do?(01:39:14) - The state of Office(01:52:54) - What's your favorite hotel?

Fernando is the Founder and CEO of Leon Capital Group, a diversified holding company that operates assets in the real estate, financial services, healthcare, and technology industries. Leon takes the lead in conceiving, developing, owning, and operating businesses through a family-holding structure that oversees $10 billion of its own private assets. We discuss: Social Systems Entrepreneurship The Supply Chain of Money Building Leon Capital Group The State of the Market We'd appreciate you filling out our audience survey, so we can continuously work on providing relevant content to our listeners.  https://www.thefortpod.com/survey Links Leon Capital Group Fernando on LinkedIn Topics (00:00:00) - Intro (00:03:51) - Fernando's career and background (00:13:28) - The impact of Harvard (00:19:48) - Lessons from Goldman Sachs - The Supply Chain of Money (00:28:07) - Building credibility in a new city (00:31:23) - Experiences in the GFC (00:35:47) - Single Tenant Retail (0:39:49) - Building out a team (00:41:41) - Developing a formal growth strategy (00:43:57) - Partnering with Ross Perot (00:46:56) - The Healthcare thesis (00:56:17) - How do you decide what industries to buy into? (00:58:49) - Buying Crexi (01:02:34) - What's your plan for the next decade? (01:04:33) - Investment Management (01:07:36) - The state of the market Support our Sponsors Vesto: https://www.vesto.com/fort Better Pitch: https://bit.ly/42d9L0I Fort: https://bit.ly/FortCompanies Follow Fort on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fort-companies/ Chris on Social Media: The Fort Podcast on Twitter/X: https://x.com/theFORTpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thefortpodcast LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/45gIkFd   Watch The Fort on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3oynxNX Visit our website: https://bit.ly/43SOvys Leave a review on Apple: https://bit.ly/45crFD0 Leave a review on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3Krl9jO  The FORT is produced by Johnny Podcasts