Podcasts about gfc

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2025 59:07

The Margin of Error Has Vanished: What CRE Investors Should Be Watching Now Commentary on a conversation with John Chang, Senior Vice President and National Director, Research and Advisory Services, Marcus & Millichap The New CRE Investment Mandate: Survive First, Then Thrive “The margin of error has narrowed to virtually zero.” This was John Chang's stark assessment of today's commercial real estate environment – an era marked by fragile capital markets, rising Treasury yields, policy instability, and speculative hangovers from a decade of cheap money. According to Chang, the headline playbook hasn't changed: keep leverage low, maintain reserves, underwrite for downside. But the stakes have changed. What used to be prudent is now required. Those who forget that, particularly those lulled by the long post-GFC bull run, risk extinction. Cap Rates, Treasury Yields, and the Compressed Spread A central theme of our conversation is the vanishing spread between borrowing costs and asset yields. Cap rates have risen 100–200 bps depending on asset class and geography, but Treasury rates have risen more. That's compressed spreads, rendering most acquisitions reliant on a value-creation story or an eventual rate reversal. Investors are still transacting, says Chang, but only if they believe they can bridge the spread gap through operational improvements i.e. leasing, renovation, management upgrades. Passive cap-rate arbitrage is no longer viable. “The potential for something to go wrong is high,” Chang warns, especially in a policy environment that remains erratic. The Treasury Market's Imminent Supply Shock Chang outlines why he expects upward pressure on Treasury yields for the balance of the year – contrary to the market's general expectations of rate cuts. Key reasons: Federal Deficits: With a delayed budget, Treasury issuance has been running below historical norms. That's about to reverse, with $1–1.5 trillion in supply expected by October. Shrinking Buyer Base: The Fed is reducing its balance sheet. Foreign holders, especially China and Japan, are net sellers. Even traditional allies are showing less appetite, driven partly by frictions over U.S. trade policy. Trade Tensions: Tariffs of up to 145% on imports from China, EU saber-rattling, and a broad retreat from globalization are alienating the very buyers of U.S. debt. “People don't want to do us any favors right now,” Chang says. “That uncertainty alone elevates risk premiums.” Normalcy Bias and the Myth of the Perpetual Up Cycle Chang pulls no punches on the market psychology underpinning risky underwriting in recent years. He describes a bifurcated investor landscape: Those who entered post-GFC and think 2–3% interest rates and infinite rent growth are normal. Veterans of the 1990s S&L crisis, the dot-com bust, or the GFC, who know better. What's striking is the lack of long-term data. Even Marcus & Millichap, he notes, only has robust CRE data going back to 2000. Without context, many have mistaken the tailwind-fueled 2010s as a standard baseline. “We're back to old-world real estate,” Chang says. “Where you have to actually understand the property, the tenant mix, the microeconomics of location. The era of pure financial engineering is over.” Lessons from the Pandemic and GFC: Underwrite for Downside, Not for Hype Chang recounts closing on an investment in April 2020 at the very onset of pandemic uncertainty. “What if we rent at breakeven?” he asked. If the answer was yes, he proceeded. That conservative approach worked then and still applies today. The biggest blow-ups, he says, came from sponsors who: Modeled double-digit rent growth. Over-leveraged. Used floating-rate debt without hedges. Ignored capex and reserves. By contrast, Chang praises sponsors who locked in fixed debt, kept leverage under 65%, and stayed humble. “They're embarrassed to be earning 7% IRRs,” he jokes, “but in this climate, that's a win.” Washout in the Syndication Space: Good Riddance? Perhaps most damning is Chang's commentary on the wave of underqualified syndicators who entered during the boom years. “Thousands came in with no operating experience,” he says, pointing to the proliferation of coaching programs offering checklists instead of expertise. These new entrants mimicked industry language – AUM figures, fund manager titles – but often had no institutional track record or risk management skills. Many of them, Chang believes, are now out or on their way out. And while some may return with hard-earned wisdom, he expects the flow of “tourists” into the syndication world to dry up for the foreseeable future. Tailwinds Still Exist: But Only for the Well-Prepared Despite the short-term risks, Chang sees multiple long-term tailwinds: Demographics: Millennials are delaying homeownership, renting into their 40s and fueling demand for multifamily. Inflation Resistance: Assets like multifamily, self-storage, and even select retail have pricing power in inflationary environments. Constrained Supply: Rising costs (e.g., lumber, steel tariffs) are slowing new construction, which will support existing asset values over time. He also flags tax policy as a positive surprise: The “BBB” tax bill, now working its way through the House, offers accelerated depreciation and expansion of Opportunity Zones particularly in rural areas. This could buoy returns in an otherwise challenging environment. On the Aging of America: A Selective Case for Healthcare-Adjacent Assets Chang views medical office and senior housing through a bifurcated lens: Medical office: Attractive if tenants are stable, young, or anchored by heavy equipment. Long leases. Minimal turnover. Durable income. Assisted living: Demographic tailwinds are real, but operators matter more than ever. The Achilles heel? Labor. “About 30% of healthcare workers in the U.S. are foreign-born,” he warns. “And immigration policy, especially under restrictive regimes, will constrain the labor supply.” No staff, no NOI. Final Signals: What He's Watching Closely If you want to forecast CRE performance, Chang suggests watching: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A leading indicator of retail sales and housing trends. Currently falling. Inflation-adjusted Retail Sales: Shows how real consumption is holding up. Trade Policy & Supreme Court Rulings: The potential invalidation of Trump-era tariffs could reset inflation and Treasury outlooks but introduces a new kind of uncertainty. “We're not facing one black swan,” he concludes. “We're facing a whole flock. Pick your bird.” Bottom Line This is not a time for heroic assumptions. It's a time for competence, humility, and discipline. If you must deploy capital, do so with sponsors who have been through a major downturn GFC style, and focus on those who didn't make capital calls, who still generate yield, and who underwrite to reality, not to hope. The next 2–3 years may be rocky. But the long term still belongs to those who survive the short term. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Oliver Hartwich: New Zealand Initiative executive director on the impact of the Trump tariffs

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2025 3:58 Transcription Available

Business leaders across New Zealand have voiced concerns that Donald Trump's tariffs could have a more severe global impact than the Covid-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis. The months since Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcement have seen sustained market volatility, tit-for-tat trade wars and fears of a resurgence in inflation. New Zealand Initiative executive director Oliver Hartwich says experts are right to be concerned - as Trump's tariffs could potentially derail the economy for years to come. "The GFC and the pandemic were over after three of four years, whereas the destabilisation of globalisation with the tariffs Trump is imposing - that could derail the economy for decades to come. There's so much uncertainty about it." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Oliver Hartwich: New Zealand Initiative executive director on the impact of the Trump tariffs

Best of Business

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2025 4:06 Transcription Available

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GU Unfiltered #232 Larry Jarriel (GFC)

GU Unfiltered‘s Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2025 64:24

We take you back to the mile high outdoor expo where I get to have Larry on the pod with and wow it was everything I need to hear! He the man lots of you all might know him from Go fast Camping truck tops GFC. I know him as a man that I can talk life with. We just get into talking about real things that actually matter in life and it was a great time hope you all enjoy it as much as I did! @thebeardeddream @gfc_usa

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Real Estate's #1 Rule: Don't Lose Money!

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2025 39:02

Leyla Kunimoto brings a rare and unfiltered perspective to today's commercial real estate conversation: that of a full-time individual LP who writes publicly about her investment decisions. She's not a sponsor, a capital raiser, or a fund manager; she's an investor allocating her own capital and speaking candidly about what she sees in the market. Through her newsletter Accredited Investor Insights, Leyla connects with hundreds of other LPs and GPs, giving her a uniquely well-informed view of how sentiment is shifting, how sponsors are adapting (or not), and why many individual investors, herself included, are taking a more cautious, capital-preserving stance in the current environment. Track Records Are the New Credentials Leyla made one thing immediately clear in my conversation with her: experience across market cycles matters more than ever. Sponsors who lived through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and made it out intact, view the world differently. “There's a certain level of conservatism they develop,” she said, that translates into more disciplined underwriting, more thoughtful pacing, and fewer emotionally driven decisions. This stands in sharp contrast to what Leyla observed in 2020, when billboards at Dallas airports advertised real estate masterminds promising to teach people how to raise capital fast. She watched sponsors pile into deals with razor-thin margins, driven more by optimism than fundamentals. Some of those same players are now facing tough questions from investors. Tariffs Are Already Affecting CRE in Two Big Ways While many LPs focus on interest rates, Leyla highlighted tariffs as a macro driver that's beginning to affect commercial real estate, particularly in development. First, tariffs are raising costs on imported materials, like lumber, pushing construction budgets higher. Second, she's watching what tariffs could mean for demand in the industrial sector. “If trade with Mexico declines, what happens to logistics facilities near the border?” she asked. Conversely, if reshoring takes off, we may see demand rise for inland warehouse space. It's a nuanced picture and one that sponsors in ground-up deals can't afford to ignore. Equity Is Cautious. Retail Capital Is Now in Play. Another shift Leyla is tracking is on the capital side. Institutional equity has pulled back in many corners of the market, and some sponsors are turning to retail LPs for the first time. But this isn't an easy pivot. “Retail investors are expensive to reach,” she said. They also tend to ask more questions – and now, they're more skeptical. Many LPs are sitting on deals that aren't performing. As a result, the bar for new allocations is much higher. “There's a sense of caution,” she noted. “LPs aren't allocating blindly anymore.” Floating Rate Debt Divides the Market Leyla sees a bifurcated sponsor landscape: those who are still dealing with the aftermath of floating-rate debt, and those who have the capital and flexibility to transact but can't find deals that pencil. Sponsors with legacy floating-rate loans are focused on rate caps and marginal cash flow. They're rooting for the Fed to cut rates. Others are hunting for acquisitions, but the math isn't working. “Without aggressive assumptions, most deals don't pencil,” she said. The IRR Illusion: What LPs Should Actually Be Watching Many sponsors still lead with IRR projections, but Leyla has shifted her mindset. “I don't screen for how much money I'm going to make. I don't screen for the IRR probability,” she told me, “the only thing I'm laser beam focused on when I evaluate private placement deals is the probability of losing money.” That loss-aversion lens changes everything. She believes LPs are better off compounding modest, positive returns over time than chasing double-digit IRRs that come with a real chance of loss. “Making 3-4% positive IRR for 10 years straight outperforms hitting 20% on some deals and going to zero on others,” she said. Stress Tests Are Private. Optimism Is Public. Behind closed doors, sponsors are more conservative than they let on, she says. The real pros run multiple models – best, worst, and most likely scenarios. “I always ask for stress test scenarios underwritten to the GFC,” she says, continuing that she used to hear sponsors saying such scenarios were never going to play out because the underwriting is too stringent. “I'm hearing a little bit less of that now,” she says. Still, she's skeptical of any deck that doesn't acknowledge the possibility of a rent decline. Of course deals won't pencil if you underwrite to a 10% rent drop but, in some markets, that's exactly what's happening. Cash Is a Position. Waiting Is a Strategy. When I asked what she'd do if handed a $1 million windfall today, Leyla didn't hesitate: “I'd keep it in cash and I would try to get very narrow on what my buy box is,” not because she's fearful but because she wants to be surgical when she deploys. She encourages LPs to be patient and wait for opportunities that fit tight criteria. In an environment where you can make 4.5%+ tax and risk-free, “there's no harm in waiting,” she says. She also shared stories of seasoned sponsors that sold early, sat in cash through the entire 2021 run-up, and are still waiting because they can't find deals that pencil – that are still too expensive for prudent investors. What Leyla's Watching Now Leyla doesn't try to predict markets. But she does monitor signals: The 10-Year Treasury yield Local supply pipelines Investor sentiment from her network of LPs And her biggest piece of advice? Focus on not losing money. That alone will make you a better investor. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Tweaking Our Target

RBC's Markets in Motion

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2025 7:47 Transcription Available

The big things you need to know:First, we are modestly revising our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target, taking it up 3% to 5,730 from 5,550. Our valuation and earnings models drive this number.Second, we view sentiment as the main risk to our call. Even though it's been melting up in recent weeks, our sentiment model (based on AAII net bulls) is still the most constructive one in our price target toolkit, and our analysis of S&P 500 moves off the lows of the major post GFC drawdowns indicates that the index could have more room to run through year-end 2025.Third, we review the case for and against Small Caps, which were in focus in our meetings last week. We remain neutral as Small Caps have been derisked to a greater degree than Large Caps, making an underweight unwise, but the conditions for outperformance seem elusive.

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Message: The Wisdom of Ecclesiastes

spotify apple wisdom ecclesiastes gfc

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2025 37:22

This Week's Message: The Wisdom of EcclesiastesMatt Murphy • 6.1.25Want to listen to the entire message from Sunday? - Visit ⁠gfcnow.com/messages⁠ or listen to this podcast feed. Let us know what you think about this podcast - Send your comments/questions for a future episode to ⁠Please take 30 seconds to subscribe and leave us a 5-star review on Apple or Spotify! New to GFC? We'd love to get to know you! Text NEWHERE (one word) to 94000; we'll follow up with you this week.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast@gfcnow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Credit Risk: The Looming U.S. Credit Crisis.

Unf*cking The Republic

Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2025 34:05

How much credit risk is in the market? Equities get the headlines but the world runs on credit. Jamie Dimon recently declared that credit was a “bad risk” on the heels of Moody’s downgrading the U.S. credit rating and a spike in the 10 Year Treasury yield. Suddenly, the boring old credit and bond markets are all the rage on the financial news channels, and it goes much deeper than treasuries. Today’s episode examines the scope of the global credit market and unpacks the difference between the systemic threat posed in the global financial crisis (GFC) and the looming credit crisis today. And, it shows how the big corporations prepared for the gathering storm by rewriting the rules of the game after the GFC. The big guys are fairly insulated from any sort of looming credit shock, but the rest of us are pretty much toast. Access the episode resources. Chapters Intro: 00:01:00 Post Show Musings: 00:28:25 Outro: 00:33:39 Resources Moody’s: Moody’s Ratings downgrades United States ratings to Aa1 from Aaa; changes outlook to stable Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Household Debt and Credit Report Federal Reserve Bank of New York: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates Coleman Report: Small Business Loan Defaults Expected to Peak Next Year Offshoring Lincoln International LLC: Q1 2025 Lincoln Private Market Index™ Investopedia: Payment-in-Kind (PIK): What It Is, How It Works, Pros and Cons Axios: Americans are behind on car payments at a record level MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2025 HBR: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S.: Municipal Bonds: Back in the Spotlight U.S. Department of the Treasury: Treasury International Capital Data for March Everything Policy: Where are the key Panama Papers figures, seven years later? Secondaries Investor: Yale sells up to $6bn of its PE portfolio amid federal funding challenge NBER: The Offshore World According to FATCA: New Evidence on the Foreign Wealth of U.S. Peter Lang Publishing: Hip Hop Can Save America! UNFTR Episode Resources The U.S. Dollar and 10 Year Treasury. Updated Tax Evasion Figures. Video: Credit Risk: The looming U.S. Credit Crisis UNFTR 5 Non-Negotiables -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How to Survive the Coming Real Estate Storm

The Cashflow Academy Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2025 74:53

How to Survive the Coming Real Estate Storm – What Sean Kelly-Rand Learned at Lehman For the experienced real estate investor or sponsor, this is a masterclass in what really matters. When Lehman Brothers unraveled in 2008, it exposed a truth that many in the real estate world still prefer to ignore: even the most sophisticated capital structures can implode when the cost of capital and access to liquidity are misunderstood – or worse, taken for granted. My podcast/YouTube show guest today, Sean Kelly-Rand, didn't just watch that collapse unfold; he lived through it from inside and the playbook he uses today as the managing partner of RD Advisors is shaped, in part, by that early, formative experience. His approach offers a deeply pragmatic framework for anyone navigating real estate in today's uncertain climate. In an era of overpromised alpha and fragile capital stacks, Kelly-Rand's doctrine is a study in restraint, structure, and staying power. From the Heart of Lehman to the Edges of Risk Kelly-Rand joined Lehman Brothers in 2006, just before the implosion, drawn by its dominance in the bond markets which he saw, even then, as the true engine behind real estate. While most looked to equity investment banks for leadership, he understood that the debt markets were where real decisions were made. His work centered on real estate financing and syndication, with a front-row view of a business model that was, in hindsight, structurally doomed. Lehman's capital stack had been stretched too far – built on short-term funding to support long-term positions. As the firm accumulated assets, expanding its real estate exposure from $5 billion to over $36 billion, it did so with virtually no cushion. Liquidity was cheap and ubiquitous, but inherently unstable. When securitization markets seized up, those long-term assets could not be offloaded without catastrophic discounts to book value. And because any sale would have forced a full repricing of the entire book, no sale could be tolerated. Lehman was stuck – and the system broke. That lesson remains central to Kelly-Rand's thinking today. The real issue wasn't the quality of the assets; it was the fragility of the structure behind them. Risk wasn't in the deal. It was in the funding. Rebuilding from the Ground Up In the years that followed, Kelly-Rand transitioned from the institutional capital markets to operating in the private lending space. He co-founded RD Advisors not just to chase yield, but also to build a firm capable of weathering downside scenarios – starting with a clean-sheet design of its capital strategy. The fund today focuses exclusively on senior secured debt, kept short in duration and conservatively underwritten. The business avoids the artificial stability of interest reserves or payment-in-kind structures that mask actual performance. Instead, it emphasizes cash-paying borrowers and short-term duration to preserve optionality and liquidity. Leverage is kept modest by design, with loan-to-value ratios structured around exit values that tolerate declining markets. Crucially, every deal is evaluated with a focus on capital preservation. Underwriting is done not with optimism, but with contingency: would the fund be comfortable owning the asset if they had to should a borrower walk? If the answer is anything but a clear yes, the deal doesn't proceed. This mentality isn't just prudent, it's essential. The goal is to never rely on someone else's execution for one's own capital security. And that institutional memory from the GFC sits the core of the process. Avoiding the Illusion of Alpha Much of what passes for outperformance in today's real estate environment is simply leverage in disguise. Sponsors show high IRRs, but beneath them is a capital structure dependent on favorable refis or asset appreciation that may no longer be achievable. That's not skill, it's exposure. Kelly-Rand's fund's returns, by contrast, are deliberately boring. They are stable, predictable, and quarterly. It's a feature, not a bug. In fact, Kelly-Rand views volatility as a symptom of poor underwriting or misaligned structure, not a badge of aggressive performance. He's wary, too, of the growing interest in ‘loan-to-own' strategies, particularly among opportunistic capital looking to buy defaulted notes in the hopes of acquiring assets at a discount. While technically accurate – private credit can convert into equity when things go wrong – he emphasizes that building a business around that premise introduces operational complexity, execution risk, and volatility that neither he nor his investors are seeking. Today's Market Echoes the Last Crisis What concerns Kelly-Rand most now is how little has changed in institutional behavior since the last crisis – and how closely today's market echoes that of 2007. There is the same creeping complacency in the banking system. Institutions are holding loans at par that would clear far below face value if sold today. Marking one loan down would trigger writedowns across the portfolio, and many banks simply can't handle that. Instead, they hold and wait, even as rates rise and deposits become more expensive than the loans on their books. This, too, is unsustainable and, like last time, it's a question not of credit risk, but of duration mismatch and funding fragility. Depositors have not yet realized en masse that their money could be earning 4.5% elsewhere. But when they do, the cost of capital for banks could spike rapidly and the system isn't ready. Worse still, foreign capital, the marginal buyer that has helped sustain U.S. real estate valuations for decades, may be losing interest. If geopolitical or currency instability weakens demand for U.S. treasuries or assets, long-term rates could drift higher, even if the Fed cuts short-term rates. That shift would have a profound impact on real estate pricing, permanently resetting cap-rate expectations – and values. A Framework for the Informed Investor The takeaway for sponsors and investors is stark but empowering: you don't need to predict the next crash, but you must be structurally prepared for it. Kelly-Rand's fund is an expression of that principle. It's structured to be resilient, not just profitable. Its margins are modest but consistent. Its leverage is low by design. And its underwriting focuses on the downside – not because of fear, but because of discipline. His experience at Lehman Brothers gave him a visceral understanding of how quickly capital evaporates when confidence is lost. What makes his insights so valuable today is not just that he's survived a cycle but that he's operationalized that survival into a repeatable, durable framework. In a world where risk is increasingly hidden behind optimism and spreadsheets, Sean Kelly-Rand offers a different kind of edge: memory. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Surviving Wall Street With Scott Bok

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2025 52:06

In this episode, Andy Tanner sits down with Scott Bok to explore the highs, lows, and hard-won wisdom from over four decades in finance. Bok shares insights from his book Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing, diving into five major market crises, the evolution of M&A, and the psychological resilience required to not just survive—but thrive—on Wall Street.Mentioned In This Episode:- Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing by Scott Bok- Wharton School of Business-you Long-Term Capital Management- The Dot-Com Bust, 2008 GFC, COVID Crash- Buffett, Volcker, Greenspan, Schiller, and moreCall to Action:- Grab Scott's book on Amazon: https://a.co/d/cewwEn6 - Want to make a quantum leap in your investing education? Visit YourInvestingClass.com

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Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment

Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2025 44:19

Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment Insights from Paul Fiorilla, Director of U.S. Research at Yardi Matrix Paul Fiorilla offers a data-driven view of today's commercial real estate (CRE) landscape using the vast resources he has at his disposal at Yardi. While market sentiment may be growing more optimistic, Fiorilla acknowledges investors should separate short-term mood from long-term fundamentals. His perspective, rooted in close analysis of multifamily data and macro conditions, is both pragmatic and cautionary: yes, there's capital on the sidelines and deals are getting done but many investors may be misreading the durability of recent tailwinds and underestimating latent risks. Short-Term Confidence, Long-Term Industry Real estate is an inherently long-term, illiquid asset class yet, much of the current market behavior appears to be anchored in short-term confidence (and short term memories). That dissonance should give investors pause. While macroeconomic shocks like tariffs, interest rate hikes, and political uncertainty do not immediately register in quarterly CRE data, their effects compound over time. Investor sentiment, meanwhile, remains buoyant. Debt markets have resumed activity, stock indices are back near prior highs, and many assume the worst is behind us. But the lagging nature of real estate data means we're still months away from fully seeing the impacts of recent fiscal and geopolitical developments. Multifamily Fundamentals: A Shifting Landscape Fiorilla addresses the fundamentals of the multifamily sector, noting that demand has remained strong in recent years, but the distribution of that demand is shifting. Rent growth is no longer universal. Over the past 15 months, metros in the Midwest and Northeast, markets like Chicago and New York, have consistently posted moderate, steady rent growth. In contrast, high-growth Sunbelt cities such as Austin, Atlanta, Nashville, and Salt Lake City are experiencing flat to negative rent trends. What's driving this bifurcation is primarily supply. In oversupplied markets, absorption hasn't kept pace with new deliveries. Despite a sharp national decline in starts, down approximately 40% year-over-year, the existing pipeline remains heavy. Nationally, over 1.2 million units are either in lease-up or under construction. In high-growth markets, deliveries will continue at elevated levels for the next several years. Some cities may see 12–15% added to their multifamily inventory by 2027. Fiorilla underscores that while national numbers suggest a tapering of supply, the local realities are more complex. Markets that arguably need more housing, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago for example, are seeing similar slowdowns in new development as oversaturated markets. The result is a continued misalignment between where capital is building and where it's most needed. The Waning Tailwinds of Demand Fiorilla also points to softening demand drivers that may soon undermine current assumptions. Over the past several years, demand has been supported by several powerful tailwinds: robust job growth, high immigration, and pandemic-era trends such as household formation and suburban relocation. But these are now tapering. Net immigration, while still meaningful, is slowing. Job growth has begun to decelerate. Moreover, federal employment cuts and delays in private-sector hiring – driven by political and fiscal uncertainty – are contributing to a weakening outlook for household formation. These are not necessarily signs of imminent distress, but they do suggest that the extraordinary absorption rates of 2021–2022 will be difficult to sustain. As Fiorilla puts it, “the risks are to the downside.” He's not forecasting a collapse but cautions against overreliance on recent performance when underwriting future deals, particularly in light of ongoing supply pressure. Policy Risk and the Fragility of Subsidized Housing Among the more underappreciated risks in the market, Fiorilla emphasizes policy risk, especially in affordable and subsidized housing. He notes that while programs like LIHTC and Opportunity Zones appear safe, others such as Section 8 are under pressure. Of particular concern are proposals to convert these programs into state-administered block grants. While this may seem like a technocratic shift, it would represent a material change for property owners. Federal guarantees would be replaced by varying state-level funding regimes, increasing payment risk and reducing the predictability that underpins underwriting in the subsidized housing sector. For owners reliant on these programs, even modest payment disruptions could be “catastrophic,” he notes. Interest Rate Volatility: The Real Pain Point Turning to capital markets, Fiorilla distinguishes between the level of interest rates and the pace at which they change. Today's rates, he argues, are not historically high. Pre-GFC, rates were often at similar levels. What's destabilizing is the speed of change. A sharp increase from near-zero to 4–5% within a single year has impaired refinancing feasibility and upended underwriting assumptions. This volatility, not the rates themselves, has created most of the current distress. Borrowers facing refinancing at double or triple the prior coupon are under strain. And yet, transaction activity persists, with many deals still pricing at thin or even negative leverage. Why? Because the #1 driver of compressed cap rates is investor confidence in future cash flows. The belief that rents will continue to rise justifies aggressive pricing – until it doesn't. This mindset echoes pre-GFC sentiment, where rent growth was taken as a given. Fiorilla is quick to clarify that today's market is not nearly as reckless. Still, elevated pricing in an environment of cooling fundamentals could leave investors dangerously exposed to even mild shocks. Quiet Distress and the Maturity Wall Another issue masked by short-term optimism is the growing volume of loan maturities. These include both regularly scheduled maturities and loans previously extended during 2021–2023 that are now reaching their end. Fiorilla notes that many of these are being addressed quietly. Lenders, reluctant to force asset sales, are working with borrowers on a case-by-case basis. The result: distress is real, but it's largely invisible. There's little evidence of forced portfolio liquidations or widespread delinquencies – yet. The availability of capital, particularly for multifamily, is helping to buffer these pressures. There's no shortage of dry powder. But absent a sharp rate reversal or improved clarity from policymakers, the sector could see a slow bleed of marginal deals rather than a systemic reset. Underappreciated Geopolitical Risk One of the most thought-provoking parts of the conversation concerns CRE's growing sensitivity to global and political dynamics. This is a structural change. The U.S. has long benefited from its role as a stable, rule-of-law jurisdiction. But shifts in foreign policy, trade restrictions, and political dysfunction are beginning to weigh on foreign investment. Declining Canadian cross-border investment and tighter restrictions on visa travel are, in part, evidence of this shift. These aren't headline stories but they are meaningful. If the U.S. loses its perception as a reliable haven for capital, CRE pricing could face downward pressure from shrinking foreign demand. This is a long-term trend worth monitoring closely, not a transitory blip. What He's Watching When asked what indicators he watches most closely, Fiorilla points to three primary metrics: Occupancy Rates – Particularly in high-supply markets. Stabilized occupancy below 94% would be an early warning sign. Absorption Trends – A sustained drop in household formation or leasing activity could signal weakening demand. Employment Data – Job losses, especially if broad-based, would ripple into rent growth and occupancy. He also monitors transaction volume as a proxy for investor confidence. If deal flow freezes again, that would signal a recalibration of forward expectations. Final Reflection While Fiorilla resists giving investment advice, his closing thoughts reflect a conservative posture. He's not sitting on the sidelines entirely but he's not rushing in either. Caution, portfolio balance, and realistic expectations are the guiding principles. For CRE professionals, this conversation is a reminder to look past sentiment and dig into the data and the fundamentals: local supply pipelines, policy shifts, interest rate trends, and the fragility of assumptions underpinning future rent growth. The macro backdrop is far from stable and the margin for error, even in multifamily, may be thinner than it appears. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Message: The Shape of Christian Discipleship

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Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2025 37:57

This Week's Message: The Shape of Christian DiscipleshipMatt Murphy • 5.25.25Want to listen to the entire message from Sunday? - Visit ⁠gfcnow.com/messages⁠ or listen to this podcast feed. Let us know what you think about this podcast - Send your comments/questions for a future episode to ⁠Please take 30 seconds to subscribe and leave us a 5-star review on Apple or Spotify! New to GFC? We'd love to get to know you! Text NEWHERE (one word) to 94000; we'll follow up with you this week.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast@gfcnow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Michael Kim @ Cendana | Lessons from the Top VCs, How Cendana Does Diligence, Portfolio Construction Best Practices, the 60x Rule, How Seed Funds Compete vs Multi-stage, Inside Cendana's Early Days

The Peel

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2025 114:58

Michael Kim is the Founder of Cendana Capital, a fund of funds that makes anchor investments in very early stage VC funds.We talk characteristics of the best investors, how Cendana does diligence on fund managers, portfolio construction best practices, Michael's “60x rule”, and why high ownership to fund size is the main driver of returns.We also get in to how VCs are using AI, the competition between Seed and multi-stage investors, why US endowments are under siege, and how secondaries are driving most early stage venture returns today.Michael also opens up about the early days of starting Cendana, the 18 month grind raising Cendana Fund 1, the day he almost died, and ranking in the top 2% globally in Call of Duty.Special thanks to Roger Ehrenberg, Kevin Hartz, Semil Shah, Jeff Claviar, Beezer Clarkson, Jack Altman, Jeff Morris Jr, Sheel Mohnot, Nichole Wischoff, Ted Alling, and Rick Zullo for their help putting this episode together.Thanks to Bolt for supporting this episode. Check out their world record largest (up to $1m in prizes) at: https://bit.ly/ThePeelBoltHackathonTimestamps:(4:24) The day Michael almost died(5:10) Call of Duty & video games(9:34) Hiring @ Cendana(10:31) How Cendana uses structured and unstructured data(16:51) How VCs are using AI(19:55) Why secondaries are driving most early stage venture returns(22:01) Deciding when to sell secondaries(24:28) Best performing venture funds ever(27:26) The best VCs have amazing access to the best founders(33:42) Why Cendana backs Solo GPs(35:57) How to invest over time and hype cycles(41:35) Why multi-stage firms are investing earlier(44:45) Cendana's current thesis: High ownership % to fund size(45:51) Why Cendana started backing non-lead VCs(48:41) How Cendana does diligence on fund managers(52:22) VC NPS Scores and Ron Conway's Silver Bullet(53:49) Good vs bad new VC firm strategies(56:36) Determining defensibility of a strategy(57:57) “Messy middle” software buyout fund(1:03:25) Portfolio construction best practice(1:08:11) Michael's 60x Rule(1:14:28) How Seed funds compete with multi-stage funds(1:20:05) Should you collect logos writing small checks?(1:21:07) Becoming an LP for the city of SF(1:24:42) Taking 18+ months to raise Cendana Fund 1 in the GFC(1:26:48) Warehousing the first Cendana Fund 1 investments(1:29:56) How to do a first close(1:34:29) Why it's hard to kill a VC firm(1:37:00) What happens to ZIRP tourist fund managers(1:40:22) How to raise a Fund 2 or 3 today(1:42:07) “US endowments are under siege”(1:44:55) What the best GP LP relationships look like(1:46:41) What Fund of Funds get wrong(1:50:43) The three most interesting trends in venture todayReferencedCheck out Cendana https://www.cendanacapital.com/Deep Checks https://www.deepchecks.vc/Prior episode with Eric at Bolt https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Q6n1vqUrF4Follow MichaelTwitter: https://x.com/MKRocksLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-kim-cendana-capital/Follow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

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Bond market discontent grows louder

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 6:00

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the bond market is speaking, passing judgement on the Trump Budget - it doesn't like it.The benchmark US Treasury 10yr, 20yr and 30yr bond yields have all jumped +12 bps so far today. That means their holders are taking sharp capital losses as the price of 'safety', and new buyers want sharply higher risk premiums. These rates are closing in on pre-GFC levels now.After a couple of weeks of rises, US mortgage applications fell last week and that too was because of rising mortgage interest rates. Their benchmark 30 year rate is very much tied to the equivalent UST rates, so next week it is very likely mortgage interest rates will jump sharply too, with a consequential fall in new mortgage applications.And those rate rises are flowing through to the primary market as well. The overnight US Treasury 20 year bond auction was still well-supported but at a price, with the median yield jumping to 4.97%, up +22 bps from 4.75% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. It has been a long time since we have seen as sharp a price signal in the primary market.It is actually starker than that. At that prior event, the high bid was 4.81% and 6.5% of the auction was allocated at that level. At this latest auction, the high bid was 5.05% and 41% was allocated at that level.Stagflation, recession fears, and a clearly irresponsible Federal Budget proposal (just designed for one family's interest) is gnawing away at sentiment and now consumer demand. Overnight, current US crude oil stocks jumped on unexpectedly low demand. These inventories rose by +1.328 million barrels in the week that ended May 16, defying market expectations of a -1.85 million barrel decrease. That is a large, unexpected turn.It is too much for the equities market, which fell sharply on all this bond and demand news.In Canada, and in a surprise, new home prices fell, and rather sharply to be back to early 2024 levels. In fact the dip was the sharpest since the pandemic.Across the Pacific, Japan is facing bond stress as well. Yields on long-term Japanese sovereign bonds are soaring as demand for such debt falters, with many market experts saying the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon. Behind the shrinking demand are mounting investor worries over the health of Asia's No. 2 economy and fallout from US trade tariffs. Yields on 20-year JGBs rose yesterday (Wednesday) to 2.575%, their highest since 2000.Meanwhile, Taiwanese export orders surged almost +20% in April from a year ago to US$56.4 bln and easily exceeding market expectations of a +10% increase. This is their best month ever, outside the distorted period of the pandemic and its aftermath when volatility reigned.The Indonesian central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps cut to 5.50%, as expected and taking it back to a level first fit in December 2022. Even though inflation is rising there it is only at just under 2% and well within its target range.In Australia, the six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.5% in March, a stalling that wasn't expected.In a new update, the ABS said Aussie employers paid a record AU$104.8 bln in salaries and wages in March. Annual growth ranged from +3.7% in the mining industry to +11.9% in Electricity, gas, water and waste services. In dollar terms, the rises were greatest in the healthcare and social assistance services industry (+$1.1 billion or +7.8%), public administration and safety (+$0.6 billion or +8.1%), and construction ($0.6 billion or +7.1%).Join us for the Budget 2025 release after 2pm this afternoon. Although much has already been signaled, some will have been saved for the theatre on the annual budget release, and this is our opportunity to assess the overall health of the Crown accounts - and when we are next likely to return to surplus.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.60%, up a very sharp +12 bp from this time yesterday. Wall Street is sharply lower, with the S&P500 down -1.5% in Wednesday trade. The price of gold will start today at US$3,313/oz, and up +US$28 from yesterday. (Remember the record high is US$3520/oz set on April 22, 2025.)Oil prices are a tad softer today at just over US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is -50 USc lower at US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.5 USc, up another +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.6 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,238 and essentially unchanged from yesterday. At one point it briefly hit US$109,500, but fell back just as quickly. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Benjamin Bowler, Managing Director and Global Head of Equity Derivatives Research at Bank of America

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 53:59

As Global Head of Equity Derivatives Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Ben Bowler is helping the firm's institutional client base understand the complex risk dynamics that impose themselves on today's markets. His process often leads him across asset classes, looking for linkages and developing stress indices that may provide early warning signs for US equity markets.Our discussion first considers the recent SPX vol event, which, from a short-term severity standpoint, Ben puts in a category with the GFC and Covid. He further makes the point that since the Tariff uncertainty was self-imposed, it was as if we were in the midst of the Covid crisis but already had the vaccine in hand.We then explore the work that Ben and his team have done on the concept of fragility. Here, he argues that the speed and magnitude of vol spikes, flash crashes and tantrum in markets has increased. In fact, in US single stocks, he suggests that fragility is at an all-time high with the reaction to earnings faster and more violent. Two factors may be playing a role. First, there is substantial crowding in certain risk exposures, like large cap tech. And second, liquidity provision, increasingly electronic in nature and sometimes rapidly withdrawn during times of stress.Lastly, we discuss the history of innovation and how investors have generally pulled forward the benefits of path-breaking new technologies, leading to asset price bubbles. Here, Ben is thinking about right tail risk and how important optionality may be in hedging the risk that the AI bubble could inflate substantially.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ben Bowler.

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Message: The Parable of the Rich Man & Lazarus

Grow A Small Business Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2025 37:24

This Week's Message: The Parable of the Rich Man & LazarusMatt Murphy • 5.18.25Want to listen to the entire message from Sunday? - Visit ⁠gfcnow.com/messages⁠ or listen to this podcast feed. Let us know what you think about this podcast - Send your comments/questions for a future episode to ⁠Please take 30 seconds to subscribe and leave us a 5-star review on Apple or Spotify! New to GFC? We'd love to get to know you! Text NEWHERE (one word) to 94000; we'll follow up with you this week.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast@gfcnow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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From Oil & Gas at 17 to $100M in Construction: Jose Berlanga of Tricon Homes on 40 Years of Business Grit, Surviving the GFC, Scaling to 200 Team Members & Lessons from 7 Cafes and Multiple Startups. (Episode 671 - Jose Berlanga)

Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2025 55:21

In this episode of Grow a Small Business, host Troy Trewin interviews Jose Berlanga of Tricon Homes, based in Houston, Texas. Jose shares his 40-year journey as a serial entrepreneur, starting in oil and gas at just 17, then scaling a construction business to $100M and 200 team members. He opens up about the challenges of the GFC, lessons from running seven cafes, and the mindset needed to survive and thrive in business. Jose also offers insights into hiring, delegation, and building resilience through tough economic cycles. Check out the book "The Business & Home Building" by Jose Berlanga — a practical guide that merges entrepreneurship with real estate insights. It offers proven strategies for building a thriving business while maintaining a strong and balanced home life. Focused on financial independence, property investment, and work-life balance, this book is a valuable resource for aspiring and established entrepreneurs alike. Why would you wait any longer to start living the lifestyle you signed up for? Balance your health, wealth, relationships and business growth. And focus your time and energy and make the most of this year. Let's get into it by clicking here. Troy delves into our guest's startup journey, their perception of success, industry reconsideration, and the pivotal stress point during business expansion. They discuss the joys of small business growth, vital entrepreneurial habits, and strategies for team building, encompassing wins, blunders, and invaluable advice. And a snapshot of the final five Grow A Small Business Questions: What do you think is the hardest thing in growing a small business? Jose Berlanga believes the hardest part of growing a small business is persistence — staying mentally tough through uncertainty, setbacks, and the less enjoyable tasks. Passion can fade when challenges mount, but endurance keeps you going. He explains that growth brings constant change and pressure to adapt. True success, he says, comes from resilience, not just enthusiasm. What's your favorite business book that has helped you the most? Jose Berlanga's favorite business book that has helped him the most is The Goal by Eliyahu M. Goldratt. He values it for its step-by-step approach to identifying and eliminating obstacles, improving processes, and turning challenges into assets for business success. Are there any great podcasts or online learning resources you'd recommend to help grow a small business? Jose Berlanga didn't mention any specific podcasts or online learning resources he uses. Instead, he emphasized his habit of writing everything down — capturing ideas, reminders, and tasks immediately to stay organized and avoid forgetting important actions in his business journey. What tool or resource would you recommend to grow a small business? Jose Berlanga recommends focusing on self-awareness and skill alignment as the most important tool to grow a small business. He advises choosing a business that not only interests you but also matches your strengths — because success comes from doing what you enjoy and what you're genuinely good at. What advice would you give yourself on day one of starting out in business? Jose Berlanga would advise himself on day one to relax and trust the process — to do his best without stressing over outcomes. He emphasizes not forcing results and believes that if you stay committed and focused, things will work out as they're meant to. Book a 20-minute Growth Chat with Troy Trewin to see if you qualify for our upcoming course. Don't miss out on this opportunity to take your small business to new heights! Enjoyed the podcast? Please leave a review on iTunes or your preferred platform. Your feedback helps more small business owners discover our podcast and embark on their business growth journey. Quotable quotes from our special Grow A Small Business podcast guest: Passion fades, but persistence fuels true success – Jose Berlanga You don't build a business alone — you build it with people you trust – Jose Berlanga Success is owning your time, not just your income – Jose Berlanga

The Illusion of Diversification

Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2025 52:13

Unlocking Private Market Potential: Key Insights from Jim Dowd of North Capital Jim Dowd, CEO of North Capital, brings four decades of experience across the sell-side and buy-side to my discussion with him on a topic top of mind for commercial real estate sponsors and investors: how to navigate a rapidly shifting capital landscape where regulation, liquidity, investor behavior, and macro volatility collide. Here are the key insights from our conversation – designed specifically to you make better, more informed investment decisions in today's market. 1. Private Markets Are Growing — But Liquidity is the Blind Spot Jim sees a long-term, secular shift from public to private markets. This trend has been driven by: Rising regulatory costs of public capital raises Falling costs and barriers to entry in private placements Broader investor access due to reduced minimums (from $250K+ to $10K–$20K) But here's the warning: private securities still lack liquidity. Investors participating in these syndicated deals should recognize that they are locked in, sometimes for years, with no clear exit. “It's like three guys trying to run through a door at the same time – when everyone wants out, they can't.” Solution: Jim's firm has built an Alternative Trading System (ATS) to create secondary markets for private securities, a concept CRE sponsors might want to look at. While not yet equivalent to public exchanges, these platforms offer an emerging way to address investor liquidity concerns and could give forward-thinking sponsors a competitive edge. 2. Don't Be Fooled by the Illusion of Diversification Many sponsors pitch private equity real estate as an uncorrelated asset class, perfect for diversifying out of stocks and bonds. Dowd challenges this narrative. “In a crisis, all risk assets tend to correlate. The illusion of diversification is mostly due to slow re-pricing in private markets.” Takeaway: Sponsors should be transparent with LPs. While real estate is a solid long-term asset, it's not immune to systemic shocks. Treating it as a diversification tool must come with proper liquidity and risk disclosures. 3. Risk Has Moved From Banks to Private Markets Jim argues that the risk which once destabilized the banking sector during the GFC has now migrated to private markets. The positive spin: these markets are mostly backed by equity, not federally insured deposits, reducing systemic risk. Investors (LPs) should understand that the margin for error in private real estate has shrunk. Mispricing risk in this environment is more likely to catch up with you, especially in a rising rate context. 4. The 10-Year Treasury: The Most Important Metric in CRE Jim highlights the 10-year Treasury yield as the single most important signal CRE sponsors should track. Why? “A 6% cap rate in a 2% Treasury environment is fundamentally different than the same cap rate in a 4.5% Treasury world. That delta blows up every underwriting model.” Cap rate spreads are compressing. And yet, many sponsors haven't recalibrated assumptions. Jim's advice: treat macro indicators like interest rates and liquidity conditions as core components of your investment thesis, not just afterthoughts. 5. Investor Behavior Has Changed: Active Risk is Now in Private Markets Jim sees a structural shift in how investors approach risk: Liquid portfolios (ETFs, mutual funds) are increasingly passive and macro-driven. Private investments, including real estate, are now where most investors take active risk. For sponsors, this has profound implications: Investor trust and manager selection matter more than ever. Sponsors must demonstrate operational excellence and a clear, differentiated strategy. Geographic proximity still matters. Many large managers raise capital locally. Relationships built within a 100-mile radius still drive much of the private capital flow. 6. On Crypto and Tokenization: Don't Confuse the Two North Capital does not allocate to crypto but Jim is bullish on blockchain infrastructure for private markets, especially tokenization. “Blockchain could enable scalable, transparent, and low-cost transactions for private securities – if regulators allow it.” Tokenization may hold long-term promise for CRE sponsors looking to expand liquidity, access global investors, and reduce friction. But the infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are still evolving. 7. Investor Advice: Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market Jim's advice to investors (including his own son) is simple: don't try to time the market. Instead: Keep short-term money in treasuries or cash equivalents Deploy long-term capital systematically over a 3–12 month window Accept volatility as the price of long-term outperformance For sponsors, this means messaging matters. Emphasize long-term fundamentals over short-term fear. Help investors contextualize volatility and maintain confidence in your strategy. 8. Watch for These Signals: What Could Change the Outlook Jim tracks two key macro indicators to signal inflection points: The 10-Year Treasury yield (as mentioned above) Capital flows in public markets – a pullback here could foreshadow slower fundraising in private markets. Beyond markets, two external shocks could force sponsors to reevaluate assumptions: A geopolitical crisis (India–Pakistan tensions, Middle East escalation, Ukraine/Russia fallout) A surprise inflation spike, particularly driven by tariffs, energy, or trade policy shocks Investors need to ask: “Can my portfolio withstand a 30–40% drawdown without breaking my long term plans?” If the answer is no, you have too much exposure to risk and should dial back. Final Takeaway for CRE Sponsors Jim Dowd's insights are a timely reminder that capital formation in private real estate markets is entering a new phase – defined by rising macro uncertainty, evolving liquidity expectations, and heightened investor scrutiny. Sponsors who embrace transparency, align offerings with institutional risk frameworks, and prepare for greater regulatory and market sophistication will be best positioned to lead, and raise, in this new environment. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Message: The Parable of the Shrewd

Grow A Small Business Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2025 41:00

This Week's Message: The Parable of the ShrewdAlf Nelson • 5.11.25Want to listen to the entire message from Sunday? - Visit ⁠gfcnow.com/messages⁠ or listen to this podcast feed. Let us know what you think about this podcast - Send your comments/questions for a future episode to ⁠Please take 30 seconds to subscribe and leave us a 5-star review on Apple or Spotify! New to GFC? We'd love to get to know you! Text NEWHERE (one word) to 94000; we'll follow up with you this week.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast@gfcnow.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Felicity Zadro on Growing Zadro Agency to $2M Revenue With 10 Staff: From $5K and Laptop nicknamed Bruce to Leading With Purpose, Navigating Crises, Building Retainers, and 18 Years of Strategic Communications Success. (Episode 666 - Felicity Zadro)

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2025 44:30

In this episode of Grow a Small Business, host Troy Trewin interviews Felicity Zadro, founder of Zadro Agency, a strategic communications firm in Sydney. Felicity shares how she built her business from just $5K and a heavy laptop named “Bruce” into a $2M agency with 10 team members. She discusses overcoming major challenges, including the GFC and losing 85% of revenue during COVID, and how she rebuilt with a strong retainer model. We dive into her focus on team culture, the shift from founder to CEO mindset, and balancing leadership with motherhood. It's a powerful story of resilience, clarity of purpose, and long-term growth. Why would you wait any longer to start living the lifestyle you signed up for? Balance your health, wealth, relationships and business growth. And focus your time and energy and make the most of this year. Let's get into it by clicking here. Troy delves into our guest's startup journey, their perception of success, industry reconsideration, and the pivotal stress point during business expansion. They discuss the joys of small business growth, vital entrepreneurial habits, and strategies for team building, encompassing wins, blunders, and invaluable advice. And a snapshot of the final five Grow A Small Business Questions: What do you think is the hardest thing in growing a small business? According to Felicity Zadro, the hardest thing in growing a small business is juggling priorities and deciding where to focus your time. She emphasised that time is finite, so making the right decisions, learning how to delegate effectively, and focusing only on what the business owner can uniquely do—especially the tasks they might not always want to—are essential and challenging parts of growth. What's your favorite business book that has helped you the most? Felicity Zadro's favorite business book that has helped her the most is Start With Why by Simon Sinek. She shared that it's been critical for Zadro Agency, particularly in shaping their brand and strategic planning process. It resonated deeply with her approach to purpose-driven business. Are there any great podcasts or online learning resources you'd recommend to help grow a small business? Felicity Zadro emphasises her involvement in a CEO group, noting that while it requires a substantial commitment, she finds it incredibly valuable for gaining insights and building connections with key people and suppliers. She describes the group as a continuous, structured learning environment that has profoundly influenced her and reshaped how she manages her business. What tool or resource would you recommend to grow a small business? Felicity Zadro recommends developing a robust business plan as a critical tool for growing a small business. A clear plan focuses efforts, sets achievable goals, and ensures team alignment, creating momentum and long-term direction for success. What advice would you give yourself on day one of starting out in business? Felicity Zadro's advice to her day-oneself is to trust her instincts and embrace the journey, knowing it will challenge and transform her into a better leader. She highlights the importance of listening to your inner voice as it reflects accumulated experience. Book a 20-minute Growth Chat with Troy Trewin to see if you qualify for our upcoming course. Don't miss out on this opportunity to take your small business to new heights! Enjoyed the podcast? Please leave a review on iTunes or your preferred platform. Your feedback helps more small business owners discover our podcast and embark on their business growth journey. Quotable quotes from our special Grow A Small Business podcast guest: Culture isn't created overnight; it's a daily commitment to values and people – Felicity Zadro Success is a balance of ambition, focus, and adaptability – Felicity Zadro Resilience is the key to thriving through challenges and change – Felicity Zadro

Will Real Estate Benefit From Canada's New Government?

Real Estate Espresso

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2025 5:54

Yesterday Canada held its Federal election. While Canada has a number of political parties, it was really a 2 party race. Mark Carney running for prime minister is head of the liberal party and Pierre Poilievre is head of the conservative party. When Justin Trudeau stepped aside a few months ago, the liberal party elected a new leader in Mark Carney. Mark Carney served as governor of the bank of Canada, and in an unusual step as governor of the bank of England. To have the bank of England select an outsider to head their central bank was an unusual step. But it was clear that Mark Carney had earned a considerable amount of trust globally as a solid central banker. He presided over the Bank of Canada through the GFC in 2008 and frankly Canada was largely unaffected by the crisis in the US, which did by the way spill over into Europe.The one central figure in the election was not even a candidate. Donald Trump's statements about trade, annexation, military spending, and border security became defining issues in the election. The Canadian people have spoken and the country has elected a liberal minority government. My assessment is that the conservative leader continued to use campaign slogans from 6-12 months ago. He failed to pivot to the reality on the ground which was the new candidate facing him in Mark Carney, and he failed to pivot in a way that will address the negotiation with Donald Trump. Mark Carney did a much more convincing job of demonstrating leadership throughout the campaign. Pierre Poilievre did not play the part of Prime Minister and I believe that he did not convince the electorate at large that he was up to the job. This election had extremely high voter turnout compared with previous elections.As a developer who is active in both Canada and the US, I really would have been happy with either party winning the election. Both had pretty decent initiatives aimed at stimulating housing. The strong fundamentals combined with a removal of several barriers makes investment in some markets in Canada extremely attractive. On today's show we are going through the real estate incentives in the liberal platform. --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

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#252 Melody Wright: The U.S. Housing Market Is In A Massive Bubble

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2025 29:27

Melody Wright joins Julia La Roche on episode 252 to discuss the state of the U.S. housing market.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Melody debunks the "inventory shortage" myth in housing and reveals startling truths about the current market. She explains how March home sales fell below 2008 levels despite population growth, discusses the hyperfinancialization of real estate through Wall Street and Airbnb investors, and shares insights from driving 10,000 miles across America to observe housing conditions firsthand. Melody also exposes ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis and offers hope for frustrated millennial homebuyers waiting for affordability to return. Throughout our conversation, she provides a sobering look at what our distorted housing market reveals about the broader economy.Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Introduction and welcome Melody Wright0:23 Setting up the big picture on housing and real estate 1:08 The context of the housing market's current state 3:18 Worst housing market in our lifetimes - March sales lower than 20084:18 Discussion of housing bubble and unaffordability 5:47 Hyperfinancialization of housing 6:15 Wall Street's role in housing after the GFC 7:32 The short-term rental craze and Airbnb saturation 9:03 How to see the real housing inventory numbers 11:06 Debunking the inventory myth and where the market is headed12:58 FHA loan issues and foreclosure programs 15:07 Hope for millennial homebuyers 16:42 Advice for first-time homebuyers 18:08 What the housing market says about the economy 19:00 Commercial real estate situation and empty buildings 20:35 Insights from driving 10,000 miles across America 22:43 Unlearned lessons from the Global Financial Crisis 23:51 Ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis 25:02 What a healthy housing market would look like 26:26 Closing thoughts

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The VIXgilantes Strike Back

Scouting Australia Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2025 31:56

In six short trading days from 4/2 to 4/9, the SPX realized as much vol as it did during the ENTIRE year of 2024. The protracted risk-off that began with the “Liberation Day” fallout ranks only behind Covid and the GFC in terms of severity using data going back to 1990. While we've likely moved past peak VIX, in the aftermath of recent chaos is an overhang of uncertainty that may hamper critical decision-making. I see plenty of lingering uncertainties - from the uneven communication from the WH, from the unpriced reactions of our trading partners and from how the market will need to price in the potential economic and corporate profit fallout from the last several weeks. Unfortunately, the recent period has been a totally unforced exercise in negative branding for both the dollar and US government bond market. For the VIX to run to 50 and for duration not to rally concurrently is a bad outcome, amounting to an asset pricing taste test that went poorly. Scott Bessent and Company need to more effectively safeguard one of our most prized possessions, the US government bond market. The Ten-Year note, not the SPX, is the risk asset. The real financial tail risk that would bring about a spiral higher in the VIX would seem to lie in the potential that long-dated UST yields rise quickly. From a contagion standpoint, the Ten Year is the vulnerability. It's not being treated as such. I hope you find this useful. Have a great week.

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How This 61 Year Old Doubled His Portfolio Value to $9.6 Million in 2024

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 27, 2025 120:15

In this week's episode, Sammy Gordon sits down with Peter Wandl: a seasoned property investor with grit, vision, and a serious track record. With a $9.6 million portfolio across 11 properties and $5 million in equity, Peter's journey is the epitome of hustle, resilience, and smart strategy. From fixing up toys on weekends as a kid to navigating the GFC after losing half his super, Peter's path has been anything but linear. He shares how he went from taking advice from traditional financial planners and buying underperforming house-and-land packages, to finally taking control, doing the hard yards himself, and eventually partnering with APS in February 2024. Now a mentor client with an impressive portfolio, Peter's influence extends beyond his own success, he inspires his family and everyone around him to chase a better future. School of Property is the ultimate education destination to master property investment, with a curriculum meticulously designed and crafted with both beginners and experts in mind. Whether you are a complete novice, or you're ready to take things to the next level in your portfolio, this is the program for you! To find out more, head to www.schoolofproperty.com.au. If you loved this episode please send it on to someone who would take some value, and please give us a 5 star review if you haven't yet and are loving the poddy! If you want your question answered on our podcast DM us on our socials or email us at apsteam@australianpropertyscout.com.au Send us your questions to: Instagram: @australianpropertyscout Want to book a call with us: Website: https://australianpropertyscout.com.au Any information, comments, opinions or content that we provide in this podcast is our general observations and information only and it is not to be taken as, or in any way, considered to be financial advice, accounting advice, superannuation advice or legal advice. We strongly recommend all and any listener and participant to obtain their own independent financial advice, accounting advice, superannuation advice and legal advice before acting in any way in relation to any investment at all including any investment in property such as what we might be discussing in this podcast. No warranty, guarantee or representation is to be taken and you cannot reproduce it in any way. Every persons financial or investment situation is different and you must consider your own circumstances before undertaking any investment and be sure to obtain independent advice. Australian Property Scout Pty Ltd | License Number: 10094798 | ABN: 64 638 266 369 Chapters: (01:45) Welcome (07:20) Property across the generations (19:45) A career shift sparked at a BBQ (25:57) Missed chances on the field (31:25) What the market cycle really means (43:19) Tough times that shaped the path (52:53) The Salisbury deal gone wrong (01:04:09) Going all-in on one strategy (01:10:10) Running the numbers on profit (01:12:32) Lessons learnt from past mistakes (01:22:19) Selling to move smarter (01:38:35) Importance of starting (01:45:50) Staying focused on the bigger picture (01:53:59) Why learning never stops

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173: Election predictions with Amy Remeikis

Serious Danger

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 26, 2025 63:19

Oh crap the election is this Saturday. Emerald is joined by guest host, #auspol legend and live-blogger for the Australia Institute, Amy Remeikis! Why has this election campaign felt so lacklustre? Is everything going to hell? And what are Amy’s predictions for election result upsets? Coming Friday on Patreon - Leo Puglisi!!! ---------- Just released on Patreon - “Inside The Greens #9 : The Rudd years, GFC, Ronan Lee & a Lib-Green Love Affair” The show can only exist because of our wonderful Patreon subscriber’s support. Subscribe for $3/month to get access to our fortnightly subscriber-only full episode, and unlock our complete library of over SEVENTY past bonus episodes. https://www.patreon.com/SeriousDangerAU ---------- Call to action - Follow Amy’s Australia Institute live blog - https://live.australiainstitute.org.au/ Read Amy at New Daily - https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/author/amy-remeikis Amy on social media - https://bsky.app/profile/amyremeikis.bsky.social https://x.com/AmyRemeikis https://www.instagram.com/pyjamapolitics/ THE ELECTION IS HERE! Go to this page, contact your local campaign - https://greens.org.au/events Sign up to volunteer greens.org.au/vic/volunteer Serious Danger merch - https://seriousdanger.bigcartel.com/ Produced by Michael Griffin https://www.instagram.com/mikeskillz Follow us on https://twitter.com/SeriousDangerAU https://www.instagram.com/seriousdangerau https://www.tiktok.com/@seriousdangerauSupport the show: http://patreon.com/seriousdangerauSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Matt King, Founder, Satori Insights

Business Essentials Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 25, 2025 56:09

For Matt King, evaluating market risk is often about pinpointing vulnerabilities within the financial system. Over the many years he's been advising institutional investors, he's gone where the action is - in the dotcom era it was corporate balance sheets, in the pre-GFC period it was asset-backed CP and in the last decade it's been sovereigns and QE. Now the founder of Satori Insights, Matt shared his current assessment of risk on this episode of the Alpha Exchange. His materially bearish take is a function of what he views as US trade policy underpinned by both a misunderstanding of balance of payments math and a failure to appreciate the risks of chaotic implementation. On the latter, Matt worries that the US is earning itself a risk premium in the back end of its bond market, a troubling development especially set against the ever-growing pile of debt outstanding. Matt shows the spike in US real rates at a time when the VIX was also surging and the dollar falling as similar to the UK's "Liz Truss moment" in 2022, an event that forced the Bank of England to act quickly. Matt argues that while Democracy ought to be mean-reverting - where bad policy leads to bad outcomes and declining popularity, ultimately motivating a change of course, today's setup in the US is one in which bad policies impact growth and further poison our politics, reinforcing bad policy. Stepping back, he sees value in gold, noting that both gold and FX vol are still too low. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Matt King.

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Will Housing Prices Keep Climbing?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2025 8:27

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain how mortgage rates, tariffs and stock market volatility are affecting the U.S. housing market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley.James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. And today we're here to talk about all of the headlines that we've been seeing and how they impact the U.S. housing market.It's Thursday, April 24th at 9am in New York.Jay Bacow: Jim, there are a lot of headlines right now. Mortgage rates have decreased about 60 basis points from the highs that we saw in January through the beginning of April. But since the tariff announcements, they've retraced about half of that move. Now, speaking of the tariffs, I would imagine that's going to increase the cost of building homes.So, what does all of this mean for the U.S. housing market?James Egan: On top of everything you just mentioned, the stock market is down over 15 per cent from recent peaks, so there is a lot going on these days. We think it all has implications for the U.S. housing market. Where do you want me to start?Jay Bacow: I think it's hard to have a conversation these days without talking about tariffs, so let's start there.James Egan: So, we worked on the impacts of tariffs on the U.S. housing market with our colleagues in economics research, and we did share some of the preliminary findings on another episode of this podcast a couple weeks ago. Since then, we have new estimates on tariffs, and that does raise our baseline expectation from about a 4 to 5 per cent increase in the cost of materials used to build a home to closer to 8 per cent right now.Jay Bacow: Now I assume at least some of that 8 per cent is going to get pushed through into home prices, which presumably is then going to put more pressure on affordability. And given the – I don't know – couple hundred conversations that you and I have had over the past few years, I am pretty sure affordability's already under a lot of pressure.James Egan: It is indeed. And this is also coming at a time when new home sales are playing their largest role in the U.S. housing market in decades. New home sales, as a percent of total, make up their largest share since 2006. New homes for sale – so now talking about the inventory piece of this – they're making up their largest share of the homes that are listed for sale every month in the history of our data. And that's going back to the early 1980s.Jay Bacow: And since presumably the cost of construction is much higher on a new home sale than an existing home sale, that's going to have an even bigger impact now than it has when we look to the history where new home sales were making up a much smaller portion of housing activity.James Egan: Right, and we're already seeing this impact come through on the home builder side of this, specifically weighing on home builder sentiment and single unit building volumes. Through the first quarter of this year, single unit housing starts are down 6 per cent versus the first quarter of 2024.Jay Bacow: All right. And we're experiencing a housing shortage already; but if building volumes are going to come down, then presumably that puts upward pressure on home prices. Now, Jim, you mentioned home builder sentiment. But there's got to be home buyer sentiment right now. And that can't feel very good given the sell off in equity markets and what that does with home buyer's ability to afford to put down money for down payment. So how does that all affect the housing market?James Egan: Now that's a question that we've been getting a lot over the past couple weeks. And to answer it, we took a look at all of the times that the stock market has fallen by at least 20 per cent over the past few decades.Jay Bacow: I assume when you looked at that, the answers weren't very good.James Egan: You know, it depends on the question. We identified 10 instances of at least a 20 per cent drawdown in equity markets over the past few decades. For eight of them, we have sufficient home price data. Outside of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which you could argue was a housing led global recession, every other instance saw home prices actually climb during the equity market correction.Jay Bacow: So, people were buying homes during a drawdown in the equity market?James Egan: No home prices were climbing. But in every instance, and here we can go back a little bit further, sales declined during the drawdown. Now, once stock markets officially bottomed, sales climbed sharply in the following 12 months. But while stock prices were falling, so were sales.And Jay, at the top of this podcast, you mentioned mortgage rate volatility. That matters a lot here…Jay Bacow: Can you elaborate on why I said something so thoughtful?James Egan: Well, it's because you're a very thoughtful person. But why mortgage rate volatility matters here? While sales volumes fall in all instances, the magnitude of that decrease falls into two distinct camps. There are four of these roughly 10 instances, where the decrease in sales volumes is large; it exceeds 10 per cent. And again, one of those was that GFC – housing led global recession. But the other three all had mortgage rates increased by at least 200 basis points alongside the equity market selloff.Jay Bacow: So not only were people feeling less wealthy, but homes were getting more expensive. That just seems like a double whammy.James Egan: Bingo. And there were more instances where rates did actually decrease amid the equity market selloff. And while that didn't stop sales from falling, it did contain the decrease. In each of these instances, sales were virtually flat to down low single digits. So, call it a 3 or 4 per cent drop.Jay Bacow: All right, so that's a really good history lesson. What's going to happen now? We've been talking about the housing market being at almost trough turnover rates already for some time.James Egan: Right, so when we think about the view forward, and you talk about trough turnover rates, I've said some version of this statement on this podcast a few times…Jay Bacow [crosstalk]: You're saying it again…James Egan: … but there's some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where rates and affordability are. And coming into this year, we really thought we were at those levels. I'm not saying we don't still think that we're there, but if mortgage rates were to stay elevated like they are today as we're recording this podcast, amid this broader equity market volatility, we do think that could introduce a little bit more downside to sales volumes.Jay Bacow: All right, but if we've got this equity drawdown, then I feel like we've been getting other questions from homeowners' ability to pay for these mortgages – and delinquencies in the pipeline. Do you have anything to highlight there?James Egan: Yes, so I think one of the things we've also highlighted with respect to the unique situation that we're in in the US housing market is – just how low effective mortgage rates are on the outstanding universe versus the prevailing rate today.We've talked about the implications of the lock-in effect. But if we take a closer look on just how much bifurcation that's led to in terms of household mortgage payments as a share of income, depending on when you bought your house. If you bought your house back in 2016, your income, if we at least look at median income growth, is up in the interim.You probably refinanced in 2020 when mortgage rates came down. That monthly payment as a share of today's income, today's median household income, roughly 8.5 per cent. If you bought up the median priced home at prevailing rates in 2024, you're talking about a payment to income north of 26 per cent. When we look at performance from a mortgage perspective, we are seeing real delineations by vintage of mortgage origination – with mortgages before 2021, behaving a lot better than mortgages after 2021. So the 2022 to [20]24 vintages.I would highlight that losses and foreclosures, those remain incredibly contained. We expect them to stay that way. But when we think about all of this on a go forward basis, we do think that mortgage rate volatility is going to be important for sales volumes next year. But everything we talked about should lead to continued support for home prices. They're growing at 4 per cent year-over-year now. By the end of the year, maybe 2 to 3 per cent growth. So, a little bit of deceleration, but still climbing home prices.Jay Bacow: Interesting. So normally we talk about the housing market. It's location, location, location. But it sounds like the timing of when you bought is also going to impact things as well. Jim, always a pleasure talking to you.James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy this podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

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Navigating uncertainty with an adaptive mindset

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 21, 2025 9:48

Rarely do we know when crisis will strike – a pandemic, war, or a GFC-like event – but if it does happen, the impact on your business and staff could be just as seismic. So how can you prepare for a potential disaster? It helps to have an adaptive mindset, insists Prof Martin Bean, CEO of The Bean Centre, and former Vice Chancellor of RMIT University, during the lockdown days of COVID-19. He has co-authored a book, ‘Toolkit for Turbulence: The mindset and methods that leaders need to turn adversity to advantage’. An adaptive mindset, he says, equips you and your team to deal with fast and unpredictable change, to navigate in uncertainty, to collaborate on complex entangled problems, and to embrace ambiguity and paradoxes. Business Essentials Daily is produced by: SoundCartelsoundcartel.com.au+61 3 9882 8333See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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美國債務與赤字危機

Room 101 by 利世民

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2025 16:10

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit leesimon.substack.com截至 2024 年底，美國聯邦政府預算赤字為國內生產總值（GDP）的 6.4%，總額約為 18000 億美元，相當於每位美國公民約 5460 美元；這只是每年的赤字。而美國聯邦政府的總債務已達 360000 億美元，佔 GDP的 123%，等於每位公民平均承擔約 106000 美元的債務。就算只是由公眾持有的美國聯邦政府債務，金額亦高達 29 萬億，約為目前的 GDP 100%。以歷史數據對比，1985 年美國聯邦政府債務佔GDP的比例為 40%，1995年為 64%。過去廿年，美國政府總債務負擔在全球金融危機（GFC）和2020年疫情期間顯著上升。目前，聯邦政府債務的平均到期時間為 71 個月，比五年前的 70 個月略有增加，而在 2008 年金融危機前，平均到期時間為 54 至 56 個月。更重要是，約有三分之一的債務於今年到期，屆時美國政府將要以更高的利率水平發行新債，進一步增加未來的利息支出負擔。2024 年，聯邦政府的債務利息支出約為 8810 億美元，已經是聯邦政府預算中的第二大支出項目，佔總支出的13%，相當於 GDP 的 3.1%。自 1940 年代以來，利息支出佔 GDP 的比例從未超過 3.2%。儘管美國政府所發行之國債，仍然被教科書視為最安全的投資工具。但在 2023 年 5 月，美國國債的信用違約掉期合約（CDS）價格飆升至 2009 年以來的最高水準。當時美國政府就提高國債上限，曾一度在國會未能達成共識；時任財政部長耶倫警告，如果債務上限僵局未能解決，政府可能最早在 2023 年 6 月 1 日耗盡資金。隨後，信貸評級機構惠譽在 2023 年 8 月將美國的信用評級從AAA下調至AA+；穆迪也在同年底將美國政府的信貸展望調整為負面。究竟美國政府是否可能違約？技術上，假如國會在關鍵時刻未能提高或暫停債務上限，違約是可能發生的。根據國會預算辦公室和兩黨政策中心的最新預測，以上所謂的「X 日期」（X-Date），即政府無法按時履行其義務的時間點，最早可能在 2025 年 7 月中旬至 10 月初之間再次出現。根據以上的客觀數據，今屆政府政府繼承了一場迫在眉睫的債務與赤字危機，也解釋了為甚麼在上任後就進行如此大刀闊斧的行動；有如一個就快要破產的人，只有三個財政重組的手段：（一）增加收入、（二）減少支出和（三）重組債務。在增加收入方面，其中一個最簡單直接的方法就是開徵全國性的銷售稅。儘管在技術上是可行的，但在政治上難以接受；尤其是開徵新稅種意味要經國會通過。所以今屆政府將整個論述包裝成貿易逆差的問題，並將政治矛盾導向到外國對美國產業的剝削。更重要是，當今屆政府將問題提升到國家利益和安全層面，就可以用行政命令方式繞過立法程序宣布關稅。單憑關稅能否處理美國聯邦政府的財赤？2024 年，美國的進口的貨值為 41100 億美元。假設對所有淨進口徵收 10% 的關稅，而且進口貨額不變，理論上也只可為聯邦政府帶來 4000 億美元左右的新收入。換句話說，即使在最理想的情況下，關稅收入也僅足以支付目前 8800 億債務利息支出的約44%，更遑論減少整體赤字。然而，實際的稅收會因進口值減少而打折扣。根據國會預算辦公室的估計，劃一 10% 的全球關稅，將令美國 GDP 減少 0.3%，消費物價上升 1%，並且削弱美國家庭的消費力；在未來十年亦只可以為美國政府帶來 22000 億的收入，平均攤分計即每年只有 2000 億左右的稅收，遠低於以上最理想每年 4000 億美元的假設。根據其他政策研究機構如 Yale Budget Lab、Tax Foundation 等更悲觀的估算，關稅減少美國 GDP 0.4 至 1.1%，令消費物價上升 1.7 至 2.9%，而最終稅收可能低至每年只有 1400 億。正如民主黨候選人哈里在去年選舉時所指出，這種關稅變相就是全國性銷售稅，會令價格水平上升，需求減少，最終只是由全民負擔成本。但請不要誤會，我不是認同民主黨的主張；民主黨對富人徵稅的主張，也同樣也是空中樓閣，不切實際。美國政府的問題不是稅務收入太低，因此政府必須探索其他方法來解決赤字危機。政府效率部（DOGE）最初的目標是在兩年內將聯邦政府赤字減少 2 萬億美元。然而，根據最新報導，截至目前，節省的金額僅為 1500 億美元。削減開支是必須的，但實際操作比預期更具挑戰性。事實上，美國政府轄下的審計部門如 Governmnet Accountability Office （GAO）和 Inspectors General 估計，目前美國聯邦政府可以削減成本的空間只有 2000 億美元；最主要原因是目前美國聯邦政府有六成以上開支為社保以及醫保等難以觸動的法定開支，而且這些開支範疇在未來亦有重大的潛在危機。以目前開支最大的社保為例，根據 2024 年的報告，老年與遺屬保險信託基金基金（Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, OASI）將於 2033 年耗盡儲備。屆時，僅依賴持續的稅收支付約 79% 的預定福利；而就算將殘障保險信託基金（Disability Insurance）合併計算，亦將於 2034-35 年耗盡儲備。屆時各領取福利的美國人只可以收到 79-83% 的金額，而隨著人口高齡化，未來福利發放金額將持續下降。所以今屆政府要解決赤字和債務危機，最關鍵策略還是債務重組。儘管現任政府否認「海湖莊園協議」（Mar-a-Lago Accord）的存在，但種種跡象顯示，美國政府正在嘗試實行當中的概念，包括：一，以關稅為威脅迫使外國政府配合；二，迫使目前持有年期相對短的外國央行及金融機構轉為持有年期更長的債券；三，透過成立美國主權基金干預匯率；四，對外國央行持有的美元徵收費用。究竟如何具體地令「海湖莊園協議」成為事實？截至 2023 年底，海外投資者持有的美國國債金額為 81000 億美元，約為公眾持有美債的 31% ；主要為日本、中國和英國。甚至有推測指今屆美國政府會考慮循政治及法律途徑，向外國政府追討第二次世界大戰以來美國向世界各國提供的援助，又或者就疫情向中國政府追討賠償。應該沒有任何一個政府會接受這些「不平等條約」，難道屆時美國會凍結這些國家的資產？當然，以上所提到的「海湖莊園協議」只是猜想，但有一點可以肯定是，隨著經濟景氣轉壞以及美國因關稅減少對外國商品需求，美元有能會有升值壓力；這一點與傳聞中的「海湖莊園協議」要令美元貶值有根本上的抵觸。美元持續強勢會增加資本外流的壓力；所以今屆政府以行政手段，也就是「美國優先投資政策」，以阻止關鍵投資流向海外。各大跨國企業在政治壓力之下，紛紛表態會在美國投資，但最終是否口惠而實不至，就只有過幾年才知道。最初提到財務重組的三個主要手段，即是增加收入、減少開支和債務重組，都不可能在短期內完成。但由於在 2025 年初，美國聯邦政府又已經觸及 361000 億的債務上限水平，而目前財政部只是透過從不同的基金提取現金維持開支。最保守估計到今年九月前美國政府又要提高債務上限並發行新債，否則不但政府停擺，更重要是將出現美國政府的債務違約危機。但如果實際稅收低過預期，以上所講的「X 日子」將更早發生。根據美國憲法第十四條修正案的第四節，也就是所謂的「公共債務條款」（Public Debt Clause）美國政府的行政部門有憲法義務防止美國債務違約。所以，最可能的情況是，國會將再次提高債務上限。但今次美國面對的財政壓力，比過去的任何一次危機更加明顯。當美國政府的融資成本上升，也債劵價格尤其是長債的價格會進一步受壓，市場利率會因此上升。亦由於金融機構所持有的債券價格下跌，有可能會觸發新一輪的金融危機，屆時聯儲局亦在沒有選擇之下要大幅擴張貨幣政策，並促使其他中央銀行進行競爭性寬鬆。假如發生在全球經濟衰退期間，加上美國實施全球性關稅帶來的需求減弱，結果可能引發經濟衰退與通漲急升同時出現的滯漲（Stagflation）。

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172: Why LNP & Labor won't fix housing ft. Max Chandler-Mather

Serious Danger

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 19, 2025 66:37

Epic rap battles of history - Biggie vs Tupac, Kendick vs Drake, DJ Albo vs Peggy Sue. Emerald and Tom take a look at the week’s election news (10:57). Dual-citizenship takes down the Greens candidate for Franklin, and is Purple Pingers to blame for squatters in Carol’s empty house? Then they are joined by the MP for Griffith and Greens housing spokesperson, Max Chandler-Mather! (26:13) Is this the week the major parties went mask off? Will the competing Labor and LNP housing policies just compete to do the most damage? Why do the Greens want a public developer? Finally, a call to action (1:03:33). ---------- Just released on Patreon - “Inside The Greens #9 : The Rudd years, GFC, Ronan Lee & a Lib-Green Love Affair” The show can only exist because of our wonderful Patreon subscriber’s support. Subscribe for $3/month to get access to our fortnightly subscriber-only full episode, and unlock our complete library of over SEVENTY past bonus episodes. https://www.patreon.com/SeriousDangerAU ---------- Call to action - Support Max’s campaign - https://www.maxchandlermather.com/ Purple Pingers article -https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/purple-pingers-jordan-van-den-lamb-squatters-post-senate-elex/105150596 THE ELECTION IS HERE! Go to this page, contact your local campaign - https://greens.org.au/events Sign up to volunteer greens.org.au/vic/volunteer Serious Danger merch - https://seriousdanger.bigcartel.com/ Produced by Michael Griffin https://www.instagram.com/mikeskillz Follow us on https://twitter.com/SeriousDangerAU https://www.instagram.com/seriousdangerau https://www.tiktok.com/@seriousdangerauSupport the show: http://patreon.com/seriousdangerauSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Inside America's Most Generous Real Estate Company - Micah Lacher - Principal @ Anchor Investments

Masters of Moments

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2025 89:19

In this episode of Masters of Moments, host Jake Wurzak sits down with Micah Lacher, founder of Anchor Investments, for a deeply personal and wide-ranging conversation about real estate, entrepreneurship, and the power of second chances. From growing up in a struggling household in North Memphis to building a respected investment and development firm in Nashville, Micah's story is both gritty and inspiring. They begin with Micah's early exposure to real estate, sparked by a life-changing move that took his family from an unsafe neighborhood to one of the best public school districts in Memphis—secured through an unlikely deal involving two Delta Airlines plane tickets. That experience set the tone for a life shaped by faith, hustle, and resilience. Throughout the episode, Micah shares how he transitioned from a brokerage role at Cushman & Wakefield into real estate development, thanks to the mentorship of Bob Tull, a former Walmart developer. He recounts launching Anchor in the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, raising capital deal-by-deal to purchase distressed assets when few others had the conviction to buy. They also discuss: - The high-stakes risk of personal guarantees during the Great Financial Crisis - How Micah structured deals, underwrote for worst-case scenarios, and still found upside - The transition from broker to principal and the influence of early mentors - Raising children without entitlement while building wealth - Using his business as a platform for purpose and service to the community Micah's outlook is rooted in gratitude and long-term thinking, with a focus on character, consistency, and building something that matters. This episode is a must-listen for anyone navigating the intersection of values, leadership, and real estate. Links: Micah on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/micah-lacher-1366151/ Anchor Investments - https://www.anchorinv.com/ Connect & Invest with Jake: Follow Jake on X: https://x.com/JWurzak 1 on 1 coaching with Jake: https://www.jakewurzak.com/coaching Learn How to Invest with DoveHill: https://bit.ly/3yg8Pwo Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:01:14) - Micah's upbringing (00:08:03) - Early career (00:13:19) - Mentors, marriage, and breaking phone addiction (00:19:17) - The fear of raising entitled children (00:22:16) - Learning the brokerage game (00:30:14) - Transitioning from broker to principal (00:39:24) - Developing “Walmart shadows” and experiencing the GFC (00:45:06) - Raising capital in 2009 (00:51:51) - Thoughts on RTO (00:53:42) - How do you think about your business today, given how you started? (00:57:30) - Using the business to effect change (01:10:37) - Establishing a competitive edge (01:13:08) - Developing hotels in Nashville - and giving away the profits (01:23:11) - The Nashville market (01:27:34) - What's your favorite hotel?

Tariffs, Trade Wars & What It Means for Your Portfolio

The Investor Lab

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 12, 2025 94:20

The markets just suffered their biggest weekly drop since the GFC. Headlines are screaming panic. But what if there's a bigger story unfolding – one that could actually set up Australian investors for advantage? This week on The Investor Lab, we're diving deep into what's really happening behind the market meltdown and emerging trade wars. Here's what we'll unpack:* The real story behind Trump's new tariff plan (and why it's reshaping global trade)* Why tariffs might actually lead to lower prices in Australia (not higher)* Are we about to head into a recession, or come out of one?* How this massive market correction could impact your portfolio (for the better) So if you’re getting caught in the swell, join us on Friday. We’ll break it all down. See you on the inside, WATCH ON YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/live/cOCsUjucTlY IMPORTANT: The Investor Lab is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and seek independent professional advice before making any investment or financial decisions. -- RESOURCES & REFERENCES: Related Episodes: What You Don’t Know About Money Could Cost You EverythingFollow the Money: How Liquidity Drives Asset Prices (and How You Can Benefit)Investment Strategies for 2025Winning the Investment Game: How to Set & Beat Your Hurdle Rate Books:* The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous - https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861* The Price of Tomorrow by Jeff Booth - https://www.amazon.com/Price-Tomorrow-Deflation-Abundant-Future/dp/1999257405 Further Research & Data Sources:* Real Vision - https://www.realvision.com* ARK Invest - https://ark-invest.com* Capital Wars Newsletter - https://capitalwars.substack.com* Bank for International Settlements - https://data.bis.org/topics/GLI* CoreLogic Australia - https://www.corelogic.com.au Charts & Statistics Referenced:* US Labor Force Participation Rate* US Government Debt to GDP (123%)* Chinese M2 Money Supply Growth (5388% since 1996)* Australian M3 Money Supply Growth (926%)* US M2 Velocity Trends* Global Liquidity Measures* Australian Residential Real Estate Value ($11.3T) -- Build a roadmap to achieve your goals for FREE on Property Pathfinder: propertypathfinder.io Want help to invest in 2025?Book in a quick chat here and we'll point you in the right direction:bit.ly/3E0wKGa Got a question or some feedback? We're all ears!bit.ly/tilqs Need finance guidance?Chat with the team: dashdotfinance.com.au/discoverycall – Catch Up On Recent Episodes: Portfolio Acceleration Masterclass: How To Use Strategic Selling As A Booster How to Create A Property Portfolio Growth Plan The Smartest Plan B for Business Owners? Sean's $464k StoryFinancial Jiu-Jitsu: How to Break Through Your Portfolio's Cashflow ConstraintsWinning the Investment Game: How to Set & Beat Your Hurdle RateFake Gold? Markets Down? Liquidity Up? – What’s REALLY Going On? The RBA Just Changed the Game — Here’s What It Means for YouHold vs Sell: How to Know When to Take ProfitsBitcoin: Why Every Property Investor Needs to Consider Owning ItEverything You Need To Know About Property Investing FinanceProperty Investing In Australia In 2025: What You Need To Know Investment Strategies for 2025 Follow the Money: How Liquidity Drives Asset Prices (and How You Can Benefit) What You Don’t Know About Money Could Cost You Everything – Connect:https://www.dashdot.com.auhttps://youtube.com/@theinvestorlabhttps://instagram.com/dashdotpropertyhttps://instagram.com/goosemcgrathhttps://instagram.com/gabi.billingSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Market Close 11 Apr 25: A wild week for share markets

CommSec

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2025 9:36

It’s been a rollercoaster week for global markets, with Aussie investors caught in the crossfire of escalating trade tensions between the US and China. The back-and-forth, led by unpredictable moves from President Trump, has triggered some of the most extreme market volatility since the GFC and COVID era. Despite the chaos, the Aussie sharemarket is surprisingly set to finish the week only half a percent lower, thanks to a couple of strong sessions mid-week. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Tariffs or no tariffs: Don't give up on Wall Street

The Money Cafe with Kirby and Kohler

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 10, 2025 35:07 Transcription Available

Yes, the current market crisis has been 'caused' by the US: You could say the same for the dot.com crash and the GFC. But is that an argument for stepping away from the country which represents more than 60 per cent of the global share market - and hosts the world's most important bond market? Dr Sam Wylie of the Windlestone Education group joins Associate Editor - Wealth, James Kirby in this episode. -----In today's show, we cover: Buying the dip Why retreating to the ASX will cost you in the long run How gold paid off in the market rout The winning ways of unhedged funds See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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CLOs: Past, Present & Future

Streaming Income - A Podcast from Barings

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2025 33:40

Barings' Head of Global CLOs, Adrienne Butler, retraces the history of the CLO asset class from its emergence in the late-1990s through the trials of the GFC and onto the most recent innovations including private credit and infrastructure debt CLOs.Episode Segments: (03:02) – The early days of the CLO market(09:33) – How CLOs fared in the 2008 period(16:14) – The distinction between investing in 3rd party CLO tranches and originating CLOs(18:21) – A broadening investor base(23:22) – How the competitive landscape has evolved(25:18) – What's next: Private credit, infra & real estate CLOs(28:39) – The opportunity in CLOs today(30:16) – Lessons Adrienne has learned in 25+ years in CLO marketsIMPORTANT INFORMATIONAny forecasts in this podcast are based upon Barings' opinion of the market at the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice, dependent upon many factors. Any prediction, projection or forecast is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investment involves risk. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Any examples set forth in this podcast are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of any future investment results or investments. The composition, size of, and risks associated with an investment may differ substantially from any examples set forth in this podcast. No representation is made that an investment will be profitable or will not incur losses. Barings is the brand name for the worldwide asset management and associated businesses of Barings LLC and its global affiliates. Barings Securities LLC, Barings (U.K.) Limited, Barings Global Advisers Limited, Barings Australia Pty Ltd, Barings Japan Limited, Barings Real Estate Advisers Europe Finance LLP, BREAE AIFM LLP, Baring Asset Management Limited, Baring International Investment Limited, Baring Fund Managers Limited, Baring International Fund Managers (Ireland) Limited, Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited, Baring SICE (Taiwan) Limited, Baring Asset Management Switzerland Sarl, and Baring Asset Management Korea Limited each are affiliated financial service companies owned by Barings LLC (each, individually, an “Affiliate”).NO OFFER: The podcast is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or service in any jurisdiction. The material herein was prepared without any consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of anyone who may receive it. This podcast is not, and must not be treated as, investment advice, an investment recommendation, investment research, or a recommendation about the suitability or appropriateness of any security, commodity, investment, or particular investment strategy.Unless otherwise mentioned, the views contained in this podcast are those of Barings and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients. Parts of this podcast may be based on information received from sources we believe to be reliable. Although every effort is taken to ensure that the information contained in this podcast is accurate, Barings makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the informationAny service, security, investment or product outlined in this podcast may not be suitable for a prospective investor or available in their jurisdiction.Copyright in this podcast is owned by Barings. Information in this podcast may be used for your own personal use, but may not be altered, reproduced or distributed without Barings' consent.25-4378005

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The Vol Shock Heard 'Round the World