Podcasts about gfc

All four major banks are now predicting an RBA rate hike next week, with ANZ forecasting a double-increase before Christmas that could send cash rates to GFC-era highs. Canstar’s Sally Tindall explained what this means for household budgets and why variable borrowers need to act now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen/Watch the FULL EPISODE ad-free/early on Substack: https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Dylan Ratigan created and hosted Fast Money at CNBC and is known for his "Rant" in 2011. He talks 2008 GFC, lack of trust in government, Gen Z, video games, only fans, having a spiritual awakening, bond market, and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!    Follow Me X- https://x.com/CoffeeandaMike IG- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeeandamike Rumble- https://rumble.com/search/all?q=coffee%20and%20a%20mike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Apple Podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coffee-and-a-mike/id1436799008 Gab- https://gab.com/CoffeeandaMike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com   Support My Work Venmo- https://www.venmo.com/u/coffeeandamike Paypal- https://www.paypal.com/biz/profile/Coffeeandamike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Patreon- http://patreon.com/coffeeandamike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Cash App- https://cash.app/$coffeeandamike Buy Me a Coffee- https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeandamike Bitcoin- coffeeandamike@strike.me   Mail Check or Money Order- Coffee and a Mike LLC P.O. Box 25383 Scottsdale, AZ 85255-9998   Follow Dylan Substack- https://dylanratigan.substack.com/ X- https://x.com/DylanRatigan   Sponsors Vaulted/Precious Metals- https://vaulted.blbvux.net/coffeeandamike McAlvany Precious Metals- https://mcalvany.com/coffeeandamike/

Global debt has passed 300 per cent of world GDP, bond yields are climbing across the world, and the U.S. war with Iran is putting pressure on households.Could we be facing the beginning of another global financial crisis?Geraldine Doogue and Latika Bourke sit down with the Financial Times Asia and Australia editor Robin Harding to explain how the bond market works, why it has such an impact on the economy, and why U.S. interventions have been lambasted by high-profile economists.Plus - how Australia passing one trillion dollars in debt might actually put us in a pretty safe spot, and how AI companies creating their own funding system could blow up in their faces.Guest: Robin Harding, Asia editor at the Financial Times Get in touch:We'd love to hear from you! Email us at global.roaming@abc.net.au

In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about why we are not trying to build the portfolio that performs best if we're right. Rather, we're trying to build one that can still achieve its purpose when we're wrong. (1:03) Do you think there's another shortage emerging that investors probably aren't thinking enough about? (3:09) Japan still owns roughly US$2.4 trillion of overseas debt. So nobody is suggesting Japanese institutions are suddenly going to dump that portfolio and bring the money home, are they? (3:49) But presumably Japan isn't the only reason yields are rising? (5:16) Since the risk-free rate sits underneath almost every asset valuation, this rise in bond yields, the rise in bond yields is becoming an equity market story as well. (6:23) We've talked about the price of capital. But you had an interesting question from a client last week which takes this discussion in a slightly different direction. That's the location of capital. (8:09) But gold is gold, so why does it matter whether it's sitting underneath New York, London, or Amsterdam? (9:01) So this is not just a gold story, is it? I remember during the GFC, it was important to know which bank kept your savings because some of those banks were ring-fenced by the government, but others weren't. (10:24) This is almost precisely the philosophical change we've been making in our new asset allocation methodology. (12:13) One of your strong criticisms of the traditional way we label assets in a portfolio is the label itself. What do you mean by that? (13:22) How does your methodology deal with that? (14:34) And what would today's discussion change? (16:53) That sounds less like optimization and more like engineering, doesn't it? (17:38) But presumably there's a cost to doing that

Most property accountants tell people what to do. Peter Taylor actually does it himself.Starting just after the GFC, he's built a portfolio of 19 residential and 10 commercial properties over three decades. In this episode, Ed and Andrew sit down with accountant Peter to hear how he did it.You'll learn:How this property accountant built a portfolio of 30 properties The biggest wins and toughest lessons from 3 decades of investing The one thing every property investor should knowPeter's edge wasn't a secret strategy. It was buying well, paying down hard, and doing it consistently for 30 years.Want to share your story on Case Study Sunday? Send us a message, email ed@opespartners.co.nzFor more from Opes Partners:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for the weekly Private Property newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, Nathan sits down with Geordie from Williams Real Estate to unpack one of the most powerful frameworks in property investing: the 18-year land cycle. Where we are right now in the cycle, which markets are about to get hurt, which ones are set up for the next boom, and why the people buying in Perth and Brisbane today could be the surrogate parents of the next decade. 00:00 - Intro: Nathan and Geordie's story and how they connected  04:00 - Geordie's background: construction, corporate, Rich Dad Poor Dad, and going all in  09:00 - The 18-year land cycle explained: 14 years of expansion, 4 years of downturn  15:00 - Tracing the cycle back: GFC, 1990 recession, Great Depression  21:00 - Where we sit today: equivalent to mid 2007 or late 1989  27:00 - How money flows through cities: Sydney, Melbourne to Brisbane, Perth and back again  33:00 - The mining boom bust and why those towns will roll over again  39:00 - Why Nathan is buying in Melbourne and Geordie is following  45:00 - The surrogate parent: buying what someone held for 12 years and sold at a loss  50:00 - Two key mistakes buyers agents make and why two big ones went under  55:00 - Cash vs debt, LVR strategy and when Nathan stopped using banks  01:01:00 - Motels, ten thousand properties, and the lazy investor philosophy  01:07:00 - When to sell, when to hold and the ten-year lost decade trap  01:13:00 - Final word: it's a banker's game with houses thrown in the middle Make your move on your property journey today: https://binvested.com.au/make-your-move-now/ What are your thoughts on this video? Share them below and show us some love if you found this video useful.

In this episode, host David Hamilton is joined by Daniel Laruccia, founder and director of SPYRE Group. We bring you this chat from their recently completed project 'ARC' located in Toowong, Brisbane, built by GRAYA.In this chat, we discuss the following:- How Daniel got started in Property and how he built a Residential Portfolio- The Transition: Meeting business partner Andrew and the transition into development- The Early Days: The first few projects, what worked, what didn't.- The GFC: How the boys survived the GFC and what they did different to most.- The SPYRE business model and how it's different to most developers.- The big jobs: The transition into multi-resi and the problems they faced- Future plans and how they've scaled!- Much, much more!To get in touch with Daniel and his team, visit the link below:https://www.spyregroup.com.au/Looking to invest in property yourself? Why not join a team of 9 experts who have experience across 35,000 property transactions over a combined 135 years in the field. We've put together the Property Investment Course for people who want to learn how to buy and build a portfolio, without paying $25k for buyers agents. To learn more, checkout:www.everythingproperty.auFacebook: http://facebook.com/everythingproperty.auInstagram: http://www.instagram.com/everythingpropertyLinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/everythingpropertyDisclaimer: The topics, conversation, opinions and discussion provided in this episode  are general in nature. As a listener you should not take or use the information discussed as financial advice. Everything Property and its associates recommend that you always engage in independent financial advice before making any investment or purchasing decision.

Most engineers never see their own designs fail. Doron Levy has built a career on standing in the wreckage to work out why.  Doron founded Fahrenheit Global, a fire engineering consultancy based in Sydney with offices in Milan and Buenos Aires. He trained as a structural engineer but left after three years, it wasn't the right fit. His first day as a fire engineer was spent at a still-smouldering, burnt-out vodka distillery, and that experience hooked him for life. He went on to complete master's degrees in both fire engineering and fire investigation, giving him a rare dual perspective: designing fire protection systems and investigating why they fail. Last year, his team won Fire Protection Project of the Year at the Fire Australia Awards for a COVID ward at Canberra Hospital.  In this episode, Doron traces his path from structural to fire engineering and explains how working both sides of the industry, design and investigation — shapes everything he does. He talks through starting a business during the GFC, moving from solo operator to a brand built to outlast its founder, and holding quality standards even when it means walking away from work. He shares his philosophy of dropping a client every year, the sign above his office door that reads "Can you sleep tonight?", and how he keeps quality consistent across three international offices. He also covers the weight of responsibility fire engineers carry, the role of certification and due diligence, and what he's learned as an expert witness investigating fires.  A must-listen for engineers, business owners, and anyone interested in fire safety and risk management.

In this episode of Property & Finance, Theo Chambers is joined by Thomas McGlynn, Chief Executive of Performance and Value at the Ray White Group and President of the Real Estate Institute of NSW, for a look at what is really happening beneath the headline numbers in a soft and confusing market.Theo and Tom also get into housing policy and tax reform, why treating every participant in the housing system as a consumer matters, and where the buying opportunities are shifting across the country.In this episode, we cover:The latest inflation, interest rate and labour market data, and what it means for propertyWhy clearance rates are at levels not seen since the GFC and the first month of COVIDWhat clearance rates don't show: withdrawals, passed-in properties and rejected offersWhy sellers, not buyers, are driving the current stall in transaction activityTom's move from a Sydney boutique to a national leadership role, and why culture is really just standardsWhat separates the top 5% of agents, and how a soft market exposes inexperienceWhether AI and automation will genuinely change the agent's roleHousing policy and tax reform: negative gearing, developer incentives, and swapping stamp duty for a GST adjustmentWhich markets are surprising right now, including Darwin, Tasmania, Melbourne's value proposition and the case for SydneyWhy sentiment and confidence move prices more than interest rates, using 2022 versus 2024 as the exampleWhat the spring selling season could bring, and whether buyer depth will support higher listing volumesThe advice Tom would give his own kids: why time in the market beats timing the marketIf you want to understand why the data looks worse than the market feels, and where the opportunities sit for both buyers and sellers right now, this episode offers a rare national view from someone with visibility across thousands of agents.Disclaimer: The information shared on this podcast is of a general nature only and has been prepared without taking into account your particular financial needs, circumstances and objectives. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, it is not guaranteed. You should obtain professional advice before acting on this information. Additionally, this podcast may include certain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. You should not place reliance on forward-looking statements.

FREE WEBINAR LINK: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Webinar-Anti-Fragile?cid=7c7b1153-bccd-4fad-aef2-c3812804fe4a This week Steve, Tom and Jacob open with three headlines that are more connected than they look: Iran calling for resolution under the weight of sanctions and inflation, the link between immigration and wage suppression in Australia, and house prices falling across every capital city except Darwin.The CoreLogic numbers for August tell the story. Sydney down 4.7% for the quarter, Melbourne down 3.9%, and commentators now calling for falls of 10%. The quarterly picture is negative almost everywhere, and the annual gains in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are shrinking fast.From there the conversation turns to one of the most misunderstood positions in investing: holding cash. Most investors feel like they are losing by sitting in cash, but it is the opposite. Cash equals options. It is exactly how Warren Buffett was able to extract a 10% preferred dividend and warrants at $8 from Bank of America during the GFC. That deal was only available to the person with the money when nobody else had any. Buffett made $500 million on the dividends alone.We also walk through why buy and hold fails when you measure returns across a full market cycle, from low point to low point. The secular bull from 1982 to 2000 delivered 666%. The bear market that followed wiped out 59% of it. Once you add fees, inflation and tax, the full cycle return was close to zero.And then the part that changes how most people think about property versus stocks: rebalancing. You cannot rebalance a house. If it falls 20%, you sit and hope. With a diversified stock portfolio you can harvest winners and add to losers, and the maths show that rebalancing turns a flat market into a positive return. We walk through the example with two assets, one up 25% and one down 20%, and show how the rebalanced portfolio gains over 5% while the buy-and-hold portfolio gains nothing.This is why we think stocks are a better long-term investment. Property will have its day, but over time the ability to rebalance between uncorrelated assets leads to higher compound returns.New episode out every Monday. If you are finding these useful, a follow on Spotify or a subscribe on YouTube genuinely helps us grow.Signals and Noise Premium: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/offers/PrbobKT9/checkoutFree investor personality test: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.au/Enneagram-typesFollow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0Sr60kq3V3q1mqiQPxiQ0l?si=d60ee47ccec54b81More from TMM: https://www.totalmoneymanagement.com.auSteve, Tom and JacobTotal Money ManagementThis podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Total Money Management | AFSL 568642

US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japanese officials that rate hikes are needed, according to NHK; a Japanese MoF official expects the BoJ to act on the economy and not on US influence.European and US equity futures are pressured by elevated yields; US 10yr (4.78%) holds at highs, whilst the UK 10yr (5.25%) resides at levels not seen since the GFC.USD firmer against all G10 currencies with yields rallying on continued energy upside.Crude futures continue recent strength; UKMTO received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces in the Indian Ocean off Oman. Marisks reported that two oil supertankers were hit by projectiles.Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), JOLTS Job Openings (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), US Midterm Primary Elections in Massachusetts, Speakers include Fed's Barr & ECB's Vujcic. Earnings from Dell & Palo Alto.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Being a developer isn't about buying sites. It's about knowing what's about to go wrong. The founder of Sherpa has been developing for decades, including through the GFC when buyers walked away from sold out buildings.He takes Matt through how a development gets funded, why he prices under the market deliberately, and the numbers that tell him a site won't work.Plus why he buys beachside, not beachfront. At Palm Beach that gap is 100%. 

In August 2001, Australia's first ETFs were launched. Today, more than two million Australians own them. So what can investors learn from 25 years of ETF investing?On this episode of the Friends With Money podcast, Money's Tom Watson is joined by Jonathan Shead, head of investments, Australia, at State Street Investment Management, to discuss the evolution of ETFs and the investing behaviours that matter most.00:00 Introduction01:11 Biggest lesson from 25 years of ETFs03:07 How investors should approach ETFs as investments04:35 The evolution of diversification over time06:20 Can you own too many ETFs?07:37 Which ETFs have been most popular with investors?09:35 Lessons from the GFC and COVID downturns11:37 ETF liquidity during market crises13:47 The future: Active ETFs and tokenisation15:36 Conclusion#friendswithmoney #tomwatson #jonathanshead #etfs #investingPodcastLinks:Listen on Apple PodcastsListen on SpotifyMoney WebsiteYouTube Podcast PlaylistEmail Us: podcast@moneymag.com.auGet stories like this in our newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pKl3ai

Roun Barry moved to the UK from South Africa in 1986, aged 26, using the trip as both a career test and an act of defiance against the politics of the time. He trained as a lawyer but went into real estate instead, working as a partner at Jones Lang Wootton and then running the UK portfolio at ING Real Estate. In 1996, he led a management buyout of the Dunedin business from ING, backed by the Royal Bank of Scotland. The business grew, and by 2006 he had built roughly £700m of industrial property, all backed by RBS money, and completed what was at the time the largest private CMBS in the market, a £640m deal. Then the GFC hit. As interest rates rose and values fell, Roun made the call to warn the 200 bondholders holding the CMBS that there was a problem, hoping to work through it together. Almost none of them understood the underlying industrial estates the debt was secured against, no one could agree on a solution, and the structure went into administration. He calls it the biggest mistake of his career. In hindsight, he says he has no regret, because it cleared the decks while many of his contemporaries spent years tied up in negotiations with banks. He rebuilt from a blank sheet of paper between 2010 and 2016, got back to roughly £1bn of assets under management, and sold the industrial portfolio to Blackstone. From there he joined ARA Europe in 2018 in a joint venture that combined his local expertise with ARA's access to international capital. ARA later merged with ESR, and Roun now runs ESR Europe as part of one of the largest real estate investment managers in the world. The People Property Place Podcast is powered by Rockbourne, recruiting leadership talent for real estate funds, owners, investors, and developers. LIKE - SHARE - SUBSCRIBE http://peoplepropertyplace.com/

What if reality isn't as fixed as you think? In this episode of Mastering Your World Through Frequencies®, Fiona and I explore the surprisingly blurry line between imagination and reality—and what that means for your ability to create change in your life. Backed by science and grounded in frequency work, this conversation will make you rethink everything you assume about what's real, what's possible, and who you think you are. And of course I've created a special GFC just for this episode—all about releasing your attachment to who you think you are. Why? Because the limitations of what you think is your identity keep you emanating the same resonance—which means you keep creating the same problems, the same people, the same level of scarcity, over and over again. And unless you're stubbornly holding onto the way things are now, and want NOTHING to change, this GFC will help shift things up in resonance. If you would like an opportunity to ask me questions in real-time, join me when I go live on YouTube. Subscribe to the Spherical Luminosity YouTube channel and click the reminder bell to be notified when I am live: bit.ly/SL-YTSubscribe For the latest news about upcoming events and to be notified when sessions with me are released, subscribe to our newsletter: bit.ly/SphericalLuminositynewsletter

Send Us A Message! Let us know what you think.Why are 65% of New Zealanders under 45 putting major life milestones like buying a home, starting a family, or making career moves on pause? And what really happens when you buy a cross-lease property with an unconsented deck, carport, or extension?In Episode 24 of New Zealand Property Insights, host Paul Roberts breaks down fresh demographic surveys and financial credit data to expose the underlying truths shaping today's property market.What You'll Learn in This Episode:Gen Z & Millennial Financial Pressure: Unpacking the 15th annual 2026 Gen Z and Millennial Survey on Deloitte New Zealand. Discover why cost-of-living concerns weigh heavily on 56% of young Kiwis, how housing costs dictate career choices, and why low-deposit lending options exist for strategic buyers.Cross-Lease Title Realities & Traps: Demystifying 999-year cross-lease titles in New Zealand. Learn how unconsented extensions create costly defective titles, how to navigate neighbor consent rules, and how converting cross-leases to freehold sections creates instant equity.Mortgage Defaults & Forced Sales Myth: Examining fresh credit data from Moody's, Property Intelligence Data on Cotality, and the Credit Indicator Report on Centrix. Discover why residential default rates remain near historic lows (111 mortgagee sales in Q2 versus 763 during the GFC) and how bank serviceability stress testing protects homeowners.

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we may be seeing the end of markets regarding US Treasuries as safe-haven assets – although to be fair it isn't clear what would replace it. Long-maturity US Treasury yields rose today to reverse the drop we noted yesterday. The yield on the US 10-year bond rose back towards the earlier 20-month high this week before the Bessent action, and the yield on the 30-year bond rose back too. A couple of points are worth making first before we review today's data updates. The first is that it has been the role of the Fed to do QE activity. Maybe Warsh isn't keen now because he is committed to shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. It grew because the Fed wanted to push down rates, and that came with the consequence of massive bond buying. In fact, they moved the needle with "whatever it takes" to the tune of US$3.5 tln in the GFC and the subsequent stabilisation. And then another US$4.5 tln for the pandemic response that started in 2020. They have only paid down US$2.5 tln since. Warsh wants to get that significatly lower. Now Bessent wants to do his own QE, in his case to avoid the political consequence his boss will face - at least push it off "till later'. But his announcement talks of a 'doubling', and that is only an extra of +$2 bln. The Fed was effective with trillions. But Bessent wants to do the same thing with billions. Wall Street hedge funds will be looking for a Bessent put, and unless he delivers his objective the hole thing might collapse rather quickly. Bessent should know - he was a billionaire hedge fund manager on Wall Street who made his fortune gaming the system. The Bessent initiative hardly lasted one day. And this comes as the US Treasury's latest daily cash and debt balances statement shows public debt now exceeds US$40 tln (Table IIIC). Why is this important for us? Well, the world's economy is still being driven by US middle-class consumer demand, the only economic engine large enough to shift the global needle. And we rely on a healthy upbeat global economy. China says it is making an attempt to duplicate this internal consumer demand, but by all accounts it is not succeeding, in part because Chinese consumers are still very risk averse and prioritising savings over consumption, and more so recently. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US fell to 172,000 last week, a slightly larger dip than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits, also marginally lower than the week before. The August Philly Fed factory survey came in much stronger than expected, building on an outsized July expansion. This is all about current activity. Oddly, new order levels fell. But price pressures did moderate this month. The Conference Board said its Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months. Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag. In Canada, their July producer prices index rose from the prior month to be -12.4% higher than year ago levels. Their raw materials index is up more than +18% on the same basis. Across the Pacific, Japan said its exports swelled +23% in July from a year ago and to an all-time record high, boosted by AI-related semiconductors and data center equipment. Meanwhile, imports were up almost +28%, boosted by fuel imports which were up more than +53% in value. and total imports also hit a new record high. The net was a small trade deficit on merchandise. China held its key lending rates at ultra low levels in the regular monthly update. But these very low rates aren't exactly generating a boom, more just holding things together. The People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates at these record lows for a 15th straight month. And that is what analysts were expecting. And remember Evergrande? Well yesterday a Chinese court sentenced its founder and boss to life imprisonment for "massive fraud". Orders for Taiwanese exports soared +62% in July from a year ago to a new record high of US$98 bln. That follows an outstanding +59% jump in June. Booming global demand for AI-related and technology products continued to fuel overseas sales. This is on top of a July 2025 increase of +21% which at the time seemed like an outstanding achievement. Malaysian exportsjumped an outstanding +38% in July from a year ago to a record high. This was led my electronic exports to the US. Meanwhile, their imports rose +36%, with the fastest rises from India, South Korea, and then China. In Europe, German producer prices rose in July too, only at a +3.0% year-on-year rate but that was their fastest since April 2023. Australian inflation expectations rose by 0.2 percentage points in August to 4.9%. This follows a three-month period of moderating inflation expectations. Wage expectations also rose in August, after remaining static for a prolonged period. Staying in Australia, full-time jobs rose +16,300 in July but part-time jobs fell -32,200 in the month for a new decrease in employment levels. So instead of the expected +15,000 rise in jobs, they had a -15,800 net fall. While this may seem like a big movement, in fact the June positive result was quite elevated so a leveling out is probably to be expected. Global container freight rates were up +4% last week from the prior week to be double what they were a year ago. Outbound rates from China to the US drove the increase with those up +9% for the week, up +180% from a year ago. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates fell -7.5% this past week to be +40% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is at 5.24% and up +4 bps.  The price of gold is up sharply, now at US$4520/oz, up +US$17 from yesterday at this time. Silver has risen another +US$2 to just over US$68. Oil prices are up US$1 from yesterday at just over US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$93.50/bbl and up +US$2.  The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just over 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +30 bps to 83.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.9, up +10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,813 and up another large +6.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been high at just on +/-3.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Property resellers are feeling the squeeze. In Q2 2026, 13% of New Zealand properties sold for a loss - a significant shift from the peak of the market where losses were practically zero. However, the data reveals a stark contrast based on one critical factor: how long you hold the property.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive deep into the latest Q2 Pain & Gain report. They unpack why the median hold period for properties selling at a profit has hit a record high of 10.4 years, while those selling at a loss were typically held for just 4.3 years (purchased right at the market peak).The guys also break down regional and property-type disparities, explaining why Auckland is seeing higher loss ratios (20.9%) compared to Wellington (18.4%), heavily driven by the apartment sector. Plus, Kelvin clarifies the latest net migration figures - unpacking the difference between New Zealand citizen departures and net new arrivals, and why this is keeping rental growth surprisingly subdued.This week we discuss:Q2 Pain & Gain Realities: Why 13% of properties are now selling at a loss, and how stricter credit controls prevented a GFC-style slump.The 10-Year Golden Rule: The record-high 10.4-year median hold period for profitable sales versus the 4.3-year danger zone.Auckland's Apartment Drag: Why flats and apartments are driving Auckland's loss ratio up to 20.9%, and the yield vs. capital growth trade-off.The Migration Misconception: Breaking down the 17,500 net migration figure - including net 37,500 NZ citizens leaving versus net 55,000 new migrants arriving.Rental Market Squeeze: How low household creation (people staying flatting or with parents) is holding rents down despite population growth.Affordability Preview: A sneak peek at the upcoming housing affordability report and how dropping interest rates are shifting the dial.

Checkout the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ Dan Nathan welcomes Vincent Daniel, partner at Seawolf Capital and one of the investors who called the 2008 housing crash, for a deep dive into where markets stand heading into year-end. They break down new Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's "immaculate economy" problem, why passive fund flows are quietly the most powerful force in the market, and the hedge-fund blowup that briefly rattled the S&P. From there, Dan and Vincent get into the real meat of the episode: the new wave of GPU-backed financing deals from Nvidia, Apollo, and Blackstone, why Vincent thinks the AI trade is less a Ponzi scheme and more a "debt-infield CapEx initiative," and where the credit risk is really hiding. They also debate capital availability, return on invested capital, which software names survive the AI shakeout, and whether this all ends up looking more like the dot-com bust or the GFC. Plus: an unprompted case for why Vincent should be the next GM of the Mets. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami dig into the biggest story in markets: Nvidia's roundtable with Wall Street's top financiers — Jensen Huang, David Solomon, Jon Gray, and Stephen Schwarzman — and the multi-hundred-billion-dollar backstop deal getting compared to a modern-day CDO. Dan lays out why he thinks this AI CapEx build could make the dot-com bust and the GFC look tame, walks through Nvidia's doubling credit default swaps, and answers a listener question on exactly what would signal the bubble has popped. Plus: the cautionary tale of The Trade Desk's collapse from $140 to $14, why valuations are only richer once before in history (the dot-com peak), and a preview of what to watch in Cisco's earnings after the close today. Show Notes A short history of valuing stocks (FT) Wall Street just endorsed Jensen Huang's ‘big concept' for AI. What now? (CNBC) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Markets around the world are hitting record highs and reporting season is delivering plenty for investors to unpack. Bryce & Ren break down results from some unassuming Aussie companies, ask whether the day or frequency of your dollar cost averaging actually matters, and explain how proposed capital gains tax changes could make record-keeping more complicated. Plus, Michael Burry is betting against the AI trade again. Should investors listen to the man who famously called the GFC?00:00 Markets are hitting record highs03:58 Australian reporting season: numbers that caught our eye05:30 Nick Scali, ResMed and REA Group14:04 Does the day you dollar cost average actually matter?18:16 How often should you dollar cost average?22:21 How will the CGT changes affect investors?28:44 Michael Burry's latest bets against AI31:18 Why calling crashes is easier than making moneyStocks & ETFs Mentioned: Pinnacle Investment Management Group (ASX: PNI), CAR Group (ASX: CAR), Light & Wonder (ASX: LNW), James Hardie Industries (ASX: JHX), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR), Nick Scali (ASX: NCK), ResMed (ASX: RMD), REA Group (ASX: REA), CSL (ASX: CSL), Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT), PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU), iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX), Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU), MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI), Zoetis (NYSE: ZTS), Fiserv (NYSE: FI), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC)Grab your FinFest tickets today: https://www.finfest.live/———Want to get involved in the podcast? Record a voice note or send us a messageAnd come and join the conversation in the Equity Mates Facebook Discussion Group.———Want more Equity Mates? Across books, podcasts, video and email, however you want to learn about investing – we've got you covered.Keep up with the news moving markets with our daily newsletter and podcast (Apple | Spotify)We're particularly excited to share our latest show: Basis PointsListen to the podcast (Apple | Spotify)Watch on YouTubeRead the monthly email———Looking for some of our favourite research tools?Download our free Basics of ETF handbookOr our free 4-step stock checklistFind company information on TIKRResearch reports from Good ResearchTrack your portfolio with Sharesight———This podcast is intended for education and entertainment purposes only. Any advice is general advice and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances. Before acting on general advice, you should consider if it is relevant to your needs. If unsure, speak to a financial professional. The host of this podcast and their guests may have positions in the companies mentioned. Equity Mates Media is part of the Betashares Group but maintains editorial independence and operates under Australian Financial Services licence 540697. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

"I had everything on the wire, on the line," says Grant Wilckens, remembering when the global financial crisis hit. The chief executive and founder of G'Day Group had started his holiday parks business in 2004 when Lehman Brothers collapsed. "It was probably the hardest I've ever worked, the most stressed I've ever been." On this week's episode, BOSS editor Sally Patten sits down with the former investment banker to find out how he survived the GFC, the lessons it taught him and how it fundamentally changed his business. This podcast was sponsored by Aussie Broadband. Further reading: The key trait private equity looks for when hiring a CEO Thomson Reuters president Steve Hasker shares HR tips and why the soaring cost of AI tokens might just save your job. Fasting, coffee and no chores: A Young Rich Lister’s success formula Oscar Ledlin reveals the secrets of his success, including where his best ideas come from, his morning routine and the advice he almost always ignores.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chair Warsh has communicated very little at his first two press conferences, aiming to increase policy flexibility and free markets to “play the ball, not the referee.” This is a marked change from his predecessors who viewed frequent communication as a form of transparency and helpful guidance. Some of Warsh's desired reforms, however, are subject to FOMC approval and cannot be implemented unilaterally. In this episode, we talk with Narayana Kocherlakota, former President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, about how the Fed approached communication through the GFC, the process for reforming FOMC procedures, and the optimal balance between monetary policy flexibility and guidance. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial's Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what's moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

My guest this episode is Stacie Mintz, Managing Director and Head of Quantitative Equity at PGIM Quantitative Solutions.Stacie has spent 33 years at PGIM, and she's been there for every defining moment of the firm's quant equity effort: a first strategy born from a client's challenge to move beyond indexing, a 1999 decision to abandon Barra and bring the risk model in-house, surviving the quant quake of August 2007, and the post-GFC realization that in a crowded-factor world, it's not enough to be a quant — you have to be a different quant.We dig into what PGIM's "fundamental quant" label actually means in practice, from a financing factor that asks how a company funds its growth, to a factor taxonomy that includes an unfamiliar Linkages group and — unusually for a quant shop — excludes momentum entirely.In the back half, we turn to the frontier: turning qualitative signals like board composition and innovation into systematic factors, building models that assess emergent shocks like COVID and AI in real time, and why Stacie calls LLMs "bazookas" — tools powerful enough to blow up what already works, which is exactly why you start with the insight and only then reach for the tool.Please enjoy my conversation with Stacie Mintz.

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 29, describing a volatile “Fed day” as the FOMC held Fed funds unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets swung sharply and finished broadly lower, with the Dow down 1,153 points (about 2%), the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and Nasdaq down 1.7%, alongside higher rates, rising Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, and WTI up nearly 7%. He notes a dramatically steepening yield curve, reduced reliance on forward guidance as described by Warsh, and futures implying a 53% chance of a September hike and 31 bps of hikes through year-end. He highlights a divided Fed with three dissenters and discusses a question comparing AI hyperscalers to GFC-era “systemically important” financials, contrasting past equity wipeouts with proposals for government equity participation in AI firms. 00:00 Welcome and Fed Day 00:43 Market Whipsaw Recap 01:17 Rates Oil and Geopolitics 01:38 Yield Curve and Fed Signals 03:01 AI Bailout Question 03:30 GFC Parallels and Differences 04:28 Wrap Up and Takeaways Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On this episode of Chit Chat Stocks, Brett and Ryan continue their study of super investors by looking at David Tepper. We discuss: (00:00) Introduction (07:40) Founding of Appaloosa and initial investment philosophy (10:01) Tepper's track record and notable returns (18:48) Case study: Russian 1998 financial crisis (24:09) Investing during the Enron and dot-com busts (32:07) The GFC rebound: Tepper's boldest move (40:22) Recent macro bets: China (46:19) Lessons from Tepper's investment approach and philosophy (52:29) Portfolio overview ***************************************************** Subscribe to our newsletter, Emerging Moats: emergingmoats.com  ********************************************************************* Chit Chat Stocks is presented by Interactive Brokers. Get professional pricing, global access, and premier technology with the best brokerage for investors today:  https://www.interactivebrokers.com/  Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC.  ********************************************************************* Fiscal.ai is building the future of financial data. With custom charts, AI-generated research reports, and endless analytical tools, you can get up to speed on any stock around the globe. All for a reasonable price.  Use our LINK and get 15% off any premium plan: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/chitchat  ********************************************************************* Disclosure: Chit Chat Stocks hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In Q2 2026, 5 of 6 Denver detached home segments posted negative price growth. Only homes above 2,991 square feet were positive, up 1.6%. That’s the kind of detail that gets averaged out when you only look at metro-level numbers, and it’s the reason this Q2 2026 Denver real estate recap goes segment by segment through Your Castle Real Estate’s quarterly trends packet. Chris Lopez walks through Your Castle’s Q2 2026 Denver Metro Trends packet in this solo episode. This isn’t a monthly market snapshot. It’s a quarterly deep dive that goes underneath the metro average to show where the real Q2 price action was happening. When you break the detached market into six size buckets, the smaller homes were down 2 to 3% while only the largest segment held positive ground. On the condo side, units under 750 square feet were down 12% while the largest condos held flat. That’s why flippers Chris talks to shifted toward $800,000 and million-dollar-plus homes through the first half of 2026 rather than hunting the entry-level market. Chris also walks through the 50-year log-scale view of Denver home prices, comparing today’s slow correction to the harder resets of the GFC and the 1980s, and closes with a pricing lesson from Q2 transaction data. In This Episode We Cover: Why this Q2 recap is a quarterly deep dive rather than a monthly panel update The six detached home segments where 5 of 6 were negative in Q2 Why the only positive detached segment was homes above 2,991 square feet The condo breakdown where units under 750 square feet fell 12% Why flippers shifted toward $800K and million-dollar homes Where Denver home prices sat on a 50-year log scale after Q2 How today’s correction compares to the GFC and 1980s resets Why priced-right homes sold in 12 days and mispriced ones took 68 The Q2 2026 Denver real estate recap from Your Castle’s data shows a segmented market where the pressure sat almost entirely on smaller detached homes and small condos, while the largest homes held or gained. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or holder, this recap gives you the segment-level read on what actually happened in Q2 and where the openings showed up. Watch the Youtube Video https://youtu.be/ounSxyjILOE Timestamps 00:00 Intro 02:11 – The Denver inventory surprise that caught Chris off guard 04:22 – Why the metro average is hiding the real Q2 story 05:11– The only home size that gained value last quarter 07:05 – Why flippers moved into luxury homes in Q2 08:27 – Where Denver condo prices took the biggest hit 09:26– Denver home prices on a 50-year view 14:11 – The pricing rule that separates 12-day sales from 68 Links in Podcast Your Castle Real Estate Q2 2026 Denver Metro Trends packetEmail Chris: chris@propertylama.com

It was a pleasure to host an Alpha Exchange discussion with Franklin Parlamis, the Founder and CIO of Aequim Alternative Investments. Franklin brings a distinctive perspective shaped by two decades in capital structure and convertible bond arbitrage. His career spans the Russian debt restructuring of 1998—where he witnessed firsthand how broken correlations can unwind hedges—through the convertible market collapse of 2008, when leverage amplified systemic stress and "the machine broke." Our conversation explores how convertibles sit at the nexus of multiple asset classes: rates, rate volatility, credit, credit volatility, equities, and stock lending. When any of these inputs malfunctions, arbitrage breaks down. Franklin's experience navigating the GFC reinforced a critical lesson: sometimes the bravest move is admitting losses and right-sizing risk, a discipline that positioned his team to prosper during 2009's rebound. Franklin articulates a central insight: markets are generally good at identifying undervalued companies but less efficient at allocating value across the capital structure. The key tension he navigates is credit spreads versus equity volatility. When spreads are wide and implied vol is low, convertibles offer clean arbitrage: the rich credit premium can fund put protection at cheap vol levels. Today's environment inverts this relationship: spreads remain tight while vol sits elevated, forcing arbitrageurs to continuously realize vega rather than harvest it passively. We close by examining whether elevated implied volatilities represent a permanent regime shift or cyclical peak. Rather than making a binary call, Franklin describes the process he uses to identify asymmetric opportunities across plausible scenarios. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Franklin Parlamis.

Season 8, Episode 5: How did Madison Realty Capital grow from a $10M fund into one of the most active private credit platforms in real estate? Today, we sit down with Josh Zegen, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Madison Realty Capital, to break down how MRC built its lending business before private credit became an institutional asset class. Josh shares how the firm survived the GFC, became vertically integrated, and scaled into a major capital source for sponsors when banks pulled back. Whether you're interested in distressed debt, construction lending, office-to-residential conversions, or today's maturity wall, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we dive into how Madison thinks about risk, rescue capital, borrower relationships, and finding opportunity in a volatile market. Shoutout to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace. New construction rental investments with comps, returns, and underwriting built in. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction to Josh Zegen and Madison Realty Capital 05:00 – The Early Private Credit Opportunity 10:53 – Surviving the GFC and Taking Over Assets 15:45 – Becoming a Construction Lending Powerhouse 19:00 – Back Leverage and Lending to Lenders 24:12 – Distress, Rescue Capital, and Loan Workouts 31:24 – Fundraising, Insurance Capital, and Investor Demand 35:44 – The Pfizer Office-to-Residential Conversion 42:40 – West Palm Beach, Florida, Texas, and Hot Markets 48:12 – Recaps, Volatility, and Building Through the Cycle For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Robert Feldman and Michael Gapen discuss how AI could reshape growth, labor markets and productivity in the U.S. and Japan.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Robert Feldman: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Robert Feldman, Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities in Tokyo. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Robert Feldman: Today, we'll discuss why the U.S. and Japanese economies may react differently to the AI productivity test. It's Thursday, July 9th at 8 pm in Tokyo. Michael Gapen: And 9 am in New York. Robert Feldman: AI is the biggest theme around the world right now, but AI will play out differently in different economies. Take the cases of the U.S. and Japan. In the U.S., it's already a catalyst in investment, imports, productivity, and the labor market outlook. But here in Japan, it's seen as a savior for an economy with an intense labor shortage, low unemployment, and very little room to raise labor force participation. Mike, in the U.S., AI's contribution to real GDP growth will rise from about 0.05 percentage points in 2024 to an estimated 0.43 percentage points in 2027. What does that mean for markets? Michael Gapen: Well, Robby, I think it, it means a number of things, but, you know, I'm an economist, so the answer is always, "It depends." I think the real crux of the issue over time in the U.S., and therefore what it means for financial markets, is ultimately whether AI is labor replacing – and pushes the unemployment rate higher. Or it acts like a more traditional general-purpose technology that's labor augmenting. So, if, that's the case, meaning it looks similar to the internet and digital era, then it would mean faster output growth, stronger productivity growth, but still an economy that's running at or near full employment. That would be very beneficial in our estimation for risk assets, equity markets, credit markets, and it would probably mean that we stay in an interest rate environment that's certainly higher than it was during the post GFC period. But if – AI is a very different technology than we've seen in the past, and it displaces labor, and we get increases in the unemployment rate as AI diffuses through the economy. Then it could be very different for markets. Maybe returns to capital and equity markets are supported, but that might be more narrowly for technology stocks and not broader, say, consumer discretionary stocks. So, the answer, of course, is it depends. We don't know. And I think, ultimately, we come down on the side of thinking that AI will not create dystopian outcomes in the labor markets, that employment will hold up. So, we have a fairly constructive view, perhaps an optimistic view. And we think, ultimately it'll benefit markets greatly, similar to what we saw from the mid-90s to the early 2000's. Robert Feldman: Well, in your model, you have a particular variable that captures the speed of diffusion. But your baseline has AI spreading twice as fast as the internet did. But without that rise of employment. Is that really manageable? And if it's not, what economic indicators would warn us, if we're crossing into the danger zone? Michael Gapen: This is really the tricky part as, as you know. We have a new technology. We have to model how it diffuses through the economy. And I would say I think there's an argument here that penetration rates and usage rates are very different than what economists think about diffusion, which is how the production process is reshaped because of this new technology. And so most economists look at the internet and digital era and think it took 20-25 years to fully diffuse. Mass penetration in maybe 10 years, but full diffusion in more like 20-25 years. And so, each innovation cycle tends to happen more rapidly. So, I do think AI will spread more rapidly. And even by saying it spreads twice as fast as the internet did still means that it'll take roughly a decade, maybe 10-12 years for this to fully diffuse. So, our argument here would be that that is enough time for a flexible economy and a flexible labor market, like we have in the U.S., to rebalance labor. But if we're wrong, then Robby, what I think you will see is that as AI rolls through, it diffuses faster. And what we would see then is increases in rates of job separation and layoffs that would overwhelm the labor market's ability to reallocate workers. So, I think we would see two things – or three things: scale layoffs, a rise in the unemployment rate, and probably a significant amount of underemployment. Those who get rebalanced may be rebalanced into work that's not, say, consistent with the skill of that worker. So, I think we would see a very disrupted labor market in the process. But if it takes a decade, maybe 10-12 years, we think ultimately the U.S. economy is flexible enough to rebalance labor without large scale layoffs. Robert Feldman: Now, people are afraid of a lot of things, but one other thing is that AI might create new kinds of jobs, new kinds of tasks, have different impacts on people's wealth, and different responses from policymakers as well. How do these knock-on effects change the AI labor story? Michael Gapen: Yeah. That's right. I think you make a very good point there that I think it's easy to fall into what an economist would call a partial equilibrium trap. So, for example, we look at occupations exposed to AI task replacement, and we say, "Wow, if all these tasks are replaced, we might lose 10 million workers or 20 million workers." But that's too simplistic, in our view. Because as you note, AI may destroy some tasks or replace some tasks, but it's also going to create new ones. So, it may eliminate some types of occupations but create others. And in addition, if people are, say, laid off because of AI, you get a loss in labor market income for the economy. But AI will likely create returns to capital, say, stronger equity performance, and that's an indirect wealth effect. So, our model kind of, looks at, say, three wedges or three horse races in the economy then. It's about the speed of diffusion of AI against the ability of the labor market to rebalance. It's task destruction or task replacement versus new task creation. And then third, it's we might have weakness in labor market income in the short run, but there are indirect wealth effects. So, thinking about it this way in a richer general equilibrium context, these feedback effects matter a lot. So, the combination of if the labor market's disrupted, we get easing in monetary policy, maybe a fiscal response. There are new tasks, new jobs that are created for workers to rebalance to over time. And overall demand in the economy gets held up because wealth effects can offset some lost income. All of that is extremely important in our view that ultimately the U.S. economy can rebalance and handle the AI diffusion in a manageable way. We could be wrong, of course, but our main point here is you have to think about this in a richer context. You can't just simply, say, stack up workers and occupations and say, "Oh, we're going to lose a lot of employment." That's not the way innovation waves have worked in the past. We don't think they're going to work that way in the future. Robert Feldman: Mm-hmm. That's fascinating because the situation in the United States is so different from that in Japan, largely because of the demographic situation. Here in Japan, the key element is how much AI can ease the labor shortage. In fact, in some labor-intensive jobs now, we're seeing 6 percent wage increases, and that's great. As long as productivity rises fast enough that price hikes aren't necessary. Michael Gapen: So Robby, in your scenarios for Japan, the same 10 percent productivity gain can lead to very different outcomes. Deflation and weaker employment in one case. More inflation, higher wages, and more employment in another. What do you think drives the difference? Robert Feldman: Mm-hmm. Well, the crucial element really is the flexibility of goods and labor markets. With high flexibility, you get higher GDP, higher employment, and moderate inflation. With low flexibility, you may get a bit higher GDP, but employment plunges, and there's deflation of both prices and wages – more in wages. Now, in Japan, over the last two decades, we've seen monopoly power in key markets go down. For example, agriculture and energy. Labor markets are more flexible too, but lifetime employment system still applies to about two-thirds of the economy. And that deters people from trying to find better jobs and even from acquiring the skills needed for a new job. Michael Gapen: What conditions are needed for AI to be additive to Japan's economy? Robert Feldman: We need more reskilling. Japan is lucky because people are healthy, and they want to work into their 70s and beyond. But acquiring the skills to remain productive is a challenge, even though Japan's workforce is well-educated and still has a strong work ethic. So, to sum up, in the U.S., the race is between diffusion and absorption. But in Japan it's between labor scarcity and productivity. Is that fair? Michael Gapen: It is fair, and we come down on the side of optimism. We think diffusion will happen fast, but it'll happen at a pace that the U.S. economy can handle. So, we come down having a positive view overall. We do not lean in the direction of dystopian labor market outcomes. Robert Feldman: Mm-hmm. I agree with that as well for Japan. So, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Robby-san. Robert Feldman: And thanks for listening, everyone. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

 Is the 2028 Global Financial Crisis inevitable?    After studying over 200 years of economic cycles and the 18.6-year land cycle, the data points to a massive shift coming for property investors.    In this video, Ben from Pumped on Property breaks down the historical data from the 1800s to today to show you exactly how the 'Winner's Curse' phase works and why 2028 is the date every investor needs to watch.     We aren't just talking about a crash - we're talking about how to thrive in it.    What we cover:    1. The 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle explained.  2. Why 2026-2027 is the "Winner's Curse" period.  3. The 200+ years of data proving the 2028 GFC.  4. My 3-step strategy to protect your portfolio and buy the dip.  5. Why the "Global Reset" is an opportunity for prepared Aussie investors.    —    Thinking about buying an investment property in Australia in the next 3 to 12 months?     Then book your free strategy session here: https://www.pumpedonproperty.com/free-strategy-session     What can you expect from your free strategy session?    In your strategy session, we will discuss:    1. Where you are right now  2. Where you want to be long-term  3. What's been holding you back from achieving your property investment goals until now  4. Your next action steps     You'll walk away from the call with a clear plan in place and the confidence you need to invest in your next property.    —    

Join an active community of RE investors here: https://linktr.ee/gabepetersen

Dave Trepanier's path into structured credit wasn't linear. Growing up on a French-Canadian farm in rural Ontario, he learned grit, teamwork, and how to make decisions when outcomes are uncertain—lessons that would later show up in an unlikely place: the earliest days of the CLO market. Now Global Head of GCSS-Structured Products in FICC Trading at Bank of America, Dave has helped build one of the industry's leading CLO and CDO trading franchises while navigating every major modern credit cycle.In this episode, Dave walks through the long road from political science and law school plans to financial engineering, options markets in Chicago, and a pivotal move to Charlotte—where CLOs were still modeled by hand in Excel off faxed trustee reports. We discuss what those “stone age” workflows taught him about risk, liquidity, and market structure, how the product evolved through telecom and the GFC, and why electronification, data, and systematic strategies may define the next chapter of credit markets.

Season 8, Episode 3: How did Fernando De Leon go from translating legal disputes as a teenager on the US-Mexico border to building Leon Capital Group? Today, we sit down with Fernando De Leon, Founder and CEO of Leon Capital Group, to break down one of the most remarkable founder stories in real estate. Fernando shares how his early life in Matamoros and South Texas shaped his view of risk, opportunity, and systems. We also get into his first real estate equity stake, his time at Harvard and Goldman Sachs, and how he built conviction before the GFC. Whether you're interested in distressed debt, Texas real estate, AI, data centers, or the mindset behind durable compounding, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we dive into the skepticism, stamina, and timing that helped Fernando build across real estate, private equity, and operating businesses. Shoutout to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace. New construction rental investments with comps, returns, and underwriting built in. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction to Fernando De Leon 07:00 – Early Real Estate Lessons on the Border 14:00 – Harvard, Mentors, and Long-Term Seeds 21:40 – Leaving Goldman and Optioning Texas Land 28:29 – Buying Distressed Loans After the GFC 37:07 – Why 2008 Won't Repeat the Same Way 46:43 – AI, Data Centers, and Hidden Risk 52:48 – Building Operating Businesses 57:07 – Mental Health, Talent, and New Opportunities 01:04:00 – Mistakes, Stamina, and AI Disruption For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Banks - KBE breakout from 2007 GFC highsGold - Bottoming process...looking like 1973, 2006 now all similarJobs - AI not killing jobs like thought?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-care-for-my-wealth-show--2487688/support.

On this week's show we wrap up the financial year and the numbers are, frankly, bonkers: the AU model portfolio is up nearly 29% for the year, the Light portfolios are up nearly 36% as a group, and the US model is up 44% against a 20% S&P. Tony then does a Pulled Pork on EVZ Limited, a small engineering fabricator that has gone from 16 cents to 65 cents in 12 months and just landed on the buy list. We also get into the warning signs stacking up on Wall Street, from margin loans up 50% to the Bank of International Settlements calling out AI data centre spending as a potential GFC-style meltdown risk.

Season 8, Episode 2: How does one of the nation's largest real estate capital pools navigate a "real estate recession" while the rest of the economy stays hot? Today, we sit down with Eli Edwards, Managing Director at Fortress Investment Group and Head of US Real Estate Equity, to break down the firm's strategy in a shifting market. Eli shares how Fortress spotted the San Francisco multifamily turnaround while the "doom loop" narrative was still in full swing. We also get into the "silver tsunami" in senior housing, why student housing is now a game of picking idiosyncratic winners, and how they are leveraging Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs) to provide tax-efficient solutions for retail investors. Whether you're interested in distressed debt, Core Plus yields, or the future of the Sun Belt, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we dive into the conviction, timing, and risk discipline that helped Eli and his team at Fortress identify growth opportunities where others only saw risk. Shoutout to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace. New construction rental investments with comps, returns, and underwriting built in. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction 04:14 – Transitioning from Banking to the Buy-Side at Fortress 10:21 – Contrarian Plays: Why Fortress Went Heavy on San Francisco Multifamily 15:31 – The Sun Belt Outlook and the Looming "Supply Cliff" 18:52 – Why Equity and JV Partnerships Trump Preferred Equity Today 22:56 – Student Housing: Picking Winners in a Shrinking Demographic Pie 25:56 – The Silver Tsunami: Why Senior Housing Fundamentals are "Inelastic" 30:51 – Tax-Efficient Strategies and the Launch of the Fortress DST Platform 40:21 – GFC vs. Today: Navigating a "Real Estate Recession" Without an Economic One 45:54 – Market Outlook: Why 2026 is the Year for Real Estate Fundamental Bottoming For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

First-time homebuyers may get short windows of relief, but our co-head of Securitized Products Research James Egan and Senior Economist and Strategist in Morgan Stanley's Private Wealth Management Sarah Wolfe say the bigger story is a housing market resetting around a higher bar to entry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Strategy.Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist within Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.James Egan: And today, why first-time homebuyers are facing a tougher path to ownership.It's Tuesday, June 23rd at 10am in New York.Buying a first-time home has always been a big step, but for a growing number of first-time buyers today, the goal can really seem insurmountable.Mortgage rates might be down from where they were in the second half of 2023, but they're significantly higher than they were for the several years before that. Monthly payments have roughly doubled for a median-priced home. And my colleague Jay Bacow and I have talked several times on this podcast about how many homeowners feel like they're locked into those lower rates.And they're staying put because they just don't want to give up a two or three-handle mortgage rate for something that has a six in front of it. But Sarah, as we know, this is bigger than just first-time buyers. Now, they often start the housing transaction chain, and when they can't buy, current owners may not be able to sell and trade up.That slows turnover across the market, and it also reduces activity tied to housing – from mortgages and renovations to moving and furniture. And it can keep would-be buyers renting for longer, which adds pressure to rental demand.So, how do you see this situation? Is this just another affordability squeeze, or has the housing market reset to a higher barrier to entry?Sarah Wolfe: I do think that we're on the upper bound of affordability pressures. This is about as bad as it's going to get. But as we discussed in our recent publication of The Economy Explained, unfortunately, we do think that the housing market is resetting at a structurally higher barrier to entry. There's a lot of reasons for that.The first is higher interest rates. Yes, mortgage rates are sitting around 6.5 percent, and they should come down from here, but maybe not better than 5.5 percent, right, in an optimistic scenario. The second is demographic pressures. Remember, we have this tremendous aging population of baby boomers. All of their children are now entering their prime home-buying years, so there's a lot of demand for ownership.The third and fourth ones are land regulation and permitting, which is at the state and local level, really hard to change. And the last one is climate risk. It's just raising insurance pricing and making it much more difficult to buy a home.So overall, we see a world where, yes, mortgage rates come down a bit, improve affordability marginally, but we think neutral and other interest rates at the longer end of the curve are going to be higher than the post-financial crisis period. And what we're going to see is that those forces are going to widen the divide between who can own a home and who cannot. And who gains from that wealth accumulation and who does not.James Egan: Right. So now, you mentioned where mortgage rates are today, above that 6 percent rate. Rates did briefly – in February, we got below 6 percent before they bounced back up here. Why did that short-lived relief matter so much?Sarah Wolfe: I think that short-lived relief showed us that moves in the mortgage rate make a difference, but things are so unaffordable that it didn't make that much of a difference.So, the dip below 6 percent was very exciting. It happened this past February. It was the first time that mortgage rates fell below 6 percent since 2022, and we saw a few things happen. First, it lowered the monthly payment for first-time homebuyers from about two point two thousand dollars a month to one point nine thousand.So makes a bit of a difference. And it lowered the share of income that goes towards monthly mortgage payments from about 26 percent of income to 22 percent, from peak to trough. So, that is a notable improvement. But what we saw in the new home sales data and the existing home sales data, that it did not drive people back into the housing market.I want to turn it back to you though, Jim, because you've actually done a lot of interesting work on this. And how this change in mortgage rates has changed the monthly cost that people have to pay for a median-priced home. Can you tell us a little bit more?James Egan: Sure. So, we talk about the lock-in effect a lot, and it's kind of easy to point to: Well, there are a lot of people with mortgage rates that are around 3 percent or 3.5 percent, and the prevailing rate's at 6 percent, and that's a lot higher, so they're locked in.But when we look at the actual numbers in terms of what we're asking a homeowner to do – to list their home for sale and move to another home today, pay off that existing mortgage, take out a new one. When you take into account how much higher home prices are today…You bought a home in 2016, for instance, right? Let's assume you refinanced in 2020 or 2021 if you still live there, right? Most homeowners did. So, you've actually taken your monthly payment, and it is lower today than it was when you bought your home in 2016. If we assume that your income has risen alongside just median household income over that time period, your monthly payment as a share of your income today is probably sub 8 percent.If you bought over the past three years, your monthly payment is a share of your income. You mentioned some numbers earlier. It's low to mid 20 percent. From a dollar amount perspective, if you were to pay off that 2016 mortgage, as an example, and take out one today, your payment is probably [$]13[00] or $1400 higher. It's like a 200 percent increase. That's very difficult economically for a lot of households, and that's the kind of physical manifestation of that lock-in effect.Now, Sarah, given this significant change in housing math, what does that mean for who is actually able to buy in this market?Sarah Wolfe: It's making who's able to buy into the market a lot more selective. So, what we're seeing is that first-time home buyers today are actually not meaningfully older. They're still about 36 years old, but they are a much more selective group financially. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York put out a great analysis on this recently, and they basically found that the first-time home buyer profile today is taking out a mortgage that's nearly $350,000, compared to $240,000 in 2019 and $200,000, a decade ago. So, significant increase in mortgage balances.At the same time, credit standards have tightened significantly, so that average credit score to get a mortgage has risen quite a bit over the last 5 to 10 years. And what this is doing is it's shifting who can buy and also where they can buy. So, we're seeing higher-quality home buyers moving to lower-income zip codes. So, buying cheaper homes in lower-income metro areas, and so it's wealthier buyers in lower-income areas.And that's the really big shift that we're seeing. It's a demand resorting story. And what we're also seeing, and we hear this a lot when we talk to our financial advisors and their clients, is that family is increasingly helping their other family members put that down payment down; in particular, parents helping their children buy that first home.So, we're seeing that first-time buyers may be feeling this pressure, right, when it comes to rates. How much of this affordability issue, though, is being driven by the locked-in effect specifically?James Egan: So, look, it's clearly playing a role. We just talked about some of the math behind that. But then when you look at what that means on a nationwide basis when it comes to inventory, when it comes to so many other aspects of this, that homeowner who's unwilling to give up that lower mortgage rate, that lower payment, right, their homes are off the market.Existing inventories for sale, they've picked up from historic lows in 2023, but they're still very, very low on a long-run basis. The fewer homes there are for sale, the more upward pressure or the absence of downward pressure that's going to put on home prices, right?We saw affordability plummet in 2022 and 2023 when rates backed up. We saw existing home sales really, really come down as a result. But home prices remained at record highs. They continued to set new record highs. For home prices to actually come down, right, you need people who are willing to sell at lower home prices.Sarah, you just mentioned that lending standards themselves remain tight.Sarah Wolfe: Mm-hmm.James Egan: Those forced sales, those tend to be distressed transactions. We don't see that distress in the market providing the inventory and the motivated inventory to lead to softer home prices. So, it's really that lack of inventory which we think is in large part driven by the lock-in effect that's kept home prices. And as a result, that piece of the affordability equation kind of stuck at these higher levels.Sarah Wolfe: I mean, it's really this vicious cycle, the locked-in effect making it difficult for entry-level buyers to get into the market – and then fewer existing homeowners sell or trade up or relocate. So, on and on it goes.Are there broader implications of this freeze?James Egan: Right. So, we just talked about what that means from an inventory perspective. And then if you think about affordability remaining challenged, lending standards themselves remaining tight, inventory remaining as low as it is, you could argue that we're at one of the more difficult times that we've seen for renters to exit rentership and step into homeownership.Now, there's a lot of different things that drive rent growth, and the fact that you have a stuck renter is just one of them. The other side of that equation can be the supply of rental units, right? So that's just a piece of the equation.But those are some of the externalities that we think about when it comes to how the tightness of the housing market – what the lock-in effect and what affordability is doing there. But outside of the housing market, Sarah, the wider economy, like how do these housing costs play a role there?Sarah Wolfe: Massive effect. Some of the work that we've done shows that housing affordability is the number one driver pushing down fertility rates in America. The number one driver. Above childcare costs, above finding a partner, finding a good job. It's housing affordability. So, you could see how that could pretty significantly ripple through the broader economy.But there's other components, right? So, as we discussed earlier, it's driving migration from unaffordable areas to more affordable regions. That has significant implications. And then putting my consumer economist hat on, as we discussed earlier in the podcast, when people buy a home, they tie themselves to that home. They spend money on couches, on beds, on TVs, right? Durable goods. And if we're going to have more people as renters for longer, that's going to expand the services economy at the expense of the goods economy.All right. Let's take a step back and think about where this is all going. It hasn't been a very optimistic conversation. Jim, what is the outlook for affordability in your view? Do we get anywhere back to the post-financial crisis period or even the pre-financial crisis period?James Egan: When it comes to the outlook for mortgage rates, the outlook for affordability, the outlook for the U.S. housing market – look, we just, throughout Morgan Stanley Research and Strategy, published our 2026 major outlook. From now through the end of 2027, we don't have conventional mortgage rates getting below 6 percent.We do have affordability improving on the margins. We have income growth exceeding home price appreciation that makes it a little bit better, but that doesn't get us back to the post-GFC affordability era, which was very, very affordable. Looking back over the past several decades, it gets us closer to where we were pre-GFC, not all the way back there.But when we think about how that ripples through the housing market and how we think about that evolving from here, look, we do think that the state of mortgage credit availability means there will be a lack of distress. We think that while affordability itself may be challenged and inventories may be low, there is some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where mortgage rates are or affordability is.We think we found that level. We think there's support for home sales at these current levels, and that combination of support for home sales, lack of inventory, means that home prices, very little room for them to grow from here. But we think they're going to be pretty supported.So, from a housing market perspective, at a ten-thousand-foot view, we're calling it 1-2 percent growth in sales, in home prices, well-supported. But the affordability outlook that we've outlined throughout this podcast – challenged to see a lot of acceleration.Now, when we pull it back to the first-time home buyer, based on our conversation, it seems that the key question is becoming less about when to buy, more about who can still afford to enter the market.But Sarah, it's really been great talking with you about the housing market today.Sarah Wolfe: It was great speaking with you, Jim.James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today. ***Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Season 8, Episode 1: How did two lawyers turn a handful of Arizona fourplexes into a vertically integrated real estate powerhouse with over 20,000 units renovated? Today, we sit down with John Griggs, Co-CEO and Co-Founder of Presidium, to break down the strategy behind that rise. John shares how he spotted his first opportunity in the "golden age" of the Arizona housing market before shifting his conviction to Texas just as the landscape was beginning to transform. We dive into how Presidium scaled its early portfolio to 5,000 units, the hard lessons learned from internalizing management during the GFC, and the strategic move of acquiring a special servicing company to master the mechanics of distressed debt. Whether you're interested in ground-up development, creative capital stacks involving HUD debt, or where multifamily opportunity sits in today's cycle, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we explore the risk discipline and long-term vision that helped Presidium evolve from a grassroots startup into a dominant institutional investment platform. Shoutout to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace. New construction rental investments with comps, returns, and underwriting built in. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction and Presidium's Background 01:32 – From Silicon Valley Law to the 2003 Arizona "Golden Age" 08:03 – Moving to Texas and Raising Capital for Scale 10:11 – Navigating the GFC and Internalizing Management 14:58 – The Institutionalization of Multifamily Real Estate 19:27 – Strategic Acquisition: Buying a Special Servicer 24:56 – Launching a Development Platform and Spotting Market Peaks 31:18 – Today's Creative Financing: HUD Debt and Housing Authorities 36:38 – Targeting Distress and Partnering with Lenders 42:15 – Delo Capital and the Outlook for Sun Belt Migration For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

In this premiere episode of Partner Perspectives, a special miniseries within the Look Forward podcast, host Molly Mintz examines how private markets are reshaping capital formation, portfolio construction, and long-term investment strategy. Drawing on S&P Global and Vanguard's joint research, Partner Perspectives: Unlocking Potential Ahead, this conversation explores why companies are staying private longer, how private equity has expanded in scale and influence, and what today's higher-rate environment means for returns and risk.  Vanguard's Bill Stout outlines an optimistic but measured view on private equity—emphasizing that disciplined underwriting, operational execution, diversification, and manager selection matter more than ever as the era of easy exits fades.  S&P Global's Evan Gunter and Ilja Hauerhof discuss private credit's rapid expansion, the rising trend of manager concentration, and how asset-based finance has emerged as a major growth engine. In addition, they highlight risks that are shaping this market evolution—including liquidity constraints and structural complexity—and explain why greater transparency, standardized reporting, and data-driven insights will be essential to unlocking the next phase of private market growth.   Chapters:  [00:00] - Introduction to Partner Perspectives and the future of private markets  [02:55] - Bill Stout on how capital formation has shifted from public to private markets  [05:15] - The biggest risks facing private equity in a higher-rate, slower-exit environment  [07:25] - Public vs. private equity performance, illiquidity premiums, and return dispersion  [08:50] - Why Vanguard's outlook for private equity is optimistic but measured   [10:55] - The case for manager selection and diversification across strategies, vintages, and regions  [13:25] - What's next: secondaries, democratized access, and fee compression  [16:15] - Transition to private credit with Evan Gunter and Ilja Hauerhof  [17:45] - How private credit evolved after the GFC and why private companies are getting bigger  [20:35] - Concentration risk and the growing dominance of the top five credit managers  [22:45] - Asset-based finance, fund finance, and infrastructure as the next frontier  [27:35] - Key risks in private credit: liquidity, transparency, and complexity  [32:35] - Why standardized data and clearer reporting are critical for future growth  [35:15] - Final takeaways and where to find more research from S&P Global and Vanguard  This podcast was authored by a cross-section of representatives from S&P Global and in certain circumstances external guest authors. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent and are not necessarily reflected in the products and services those entities offer. This research is a publication of S&P Global and does not comment on current or future credit ratings or credit rating methodologies. 

In this episode of the Grow A Small Business Podcast host Troy Trewin interviews Tim Rexius shares how he lost nearly everything during the GFC, delivered pizzas at night, and sanded floors to fund the launch of Rexius Nutrition. He reveals how relentless networking, smart risk-taking, and a commitment to learning helped him grow multiple businesses, including three successful gyms. Tim also explains how Omaha Protein Popcorn evolved from a struggling idea into a global brand stocked in over 30,000 stores across 16 countries. Along the way, he discusses leadership, marketing, building a strong team culture, and why entrepreneurs must remain lifelong students. This inspiring conversation is packed with lessons on resilience, growth, and creating opportunities from adversity. Why would you wait any longer to start living the lifestyle you signed up for? Balance your health, wealth, relationships and business growth. And focus your time and energy and make the most of this year. Let's get into it by clicking here. Troy delves into our guest's startup journey, their perception of success, industry reconsideration, and the pivotal stress point during business expansion. They discuss the joys of small business growth, vital entrepreneurial habits, and strategies for team building, encompassing wins, blunders, and invaluable advice. And a snapshot of the final five Grow A Small Business Questions: What do you think is the hardest thing in growing a small business? According to Tim Rexius, the hardest thing in growing a small business is access to capital. He believes many entrepreneurs have great ideas and the willingness to work hard, but securing funding is often the biggest challenge. Tim notes that borrowing money has become increasingly difficult, and when funding is available, the interest rates and repayment terms can be tough. He advises business owners to find creative ways to generate income while building their business so they can cover overhead costs and avoid making poor decisions under financial pressure. What's your favorite business book that has helped you the most? Tim Rexius says one of the business books that has helped him the most is Think Big, Shut the F Up and Work. He also credits Masters of Selling by Tony Robbins as a life-changing book that helped him understand communication, sales, and human behavior. Tim believes that learning how to sell effectively is one of the most valuable skills an entrepreneur can develop because it influences every aspect of business growth and success. Are there any great podcasts or online learning resources you'd recommend to help grow a small business? Tim Rexius shared invaluable entrepreneurial wisdom across several platforms, including his standout appearances on The Management Blueprint Podcast, The Deep Wealth Podcast, and the Phat Muscle Project Podcast, where he breaks down real-world scaling strategies and leadership frameworks. His home base at timrexius.com also offers direct access to Rexius Business Consulting, where he mentors entrepreneurs globally on franchising, retail expansion, and building strong team cultures. For broader small business growth, the Grow a Small Business Podcast hosted by Troy Trewin — the very show Tim featured on — delivers weekly deep-dives with founders tackling the same challenges. You can also follow Tim on Instagram, YouTube, and LinkedIn at @timothy_d_rexius for ongoing, no-BS business insights from someone who built a $50M brand from nothing. What tool or resource would you recommend to grow a small business? Tim Rexius shares that the most powerful tool for growing a small business is building genuine relationships, as he personally visited three gyms every day for three years to meet potential customers, proving that consistent human connection outperforms any paid marketing strategy. He also emphasizes leveraging social media to level the playing field, noting that a strong personal brand and winning attitude can make a C-class location just as successful as an A-class one, which he demonstrated by growing Omaha Protein Popcorn to over 30,000 stores across 16 countries. For direct mentorship and structured business guidance, Tim offers Rexius Business Consulting at timrexius.com, where he coaches entrepreneurs on scaling, franchising, and turning employees into entrepreneurial partners using his proven Entrepreneur Creation Framework. What advice would you give yourself on day one of starting out in business? Tim Rexius would tell his day-one self to stop waiting for the perfect moment and instead start hustling immediately, because delivering pizzas at night and sanding floors on weekends while building his first store taught him that grit and relentless action will always outwork privilege and perfect timing. He would also remind himself that it is far easier to turn customers into friends than friends into customers, so invest every ounce of energy into showing up, meeting people, and projecting a winning attitude — because the right mindset attracts the right opportunities. Book a 20-minute Growth Chat with Troy Trewin to see if you qualify for our upcoming course. Don't miss out on this opportunity to take your small business to new heights! Enjoyed the podcast? Please leave a review on iTunes or your preferred platform. Your feedback helps more small business owners discover our podcast and embark on their business growth journey.     Quotable quotes from our special Grow A Small Business podcast guest: It's a lot easier to turn customers into friends than friends into customers — Tim Rexius You can have a C-class location but an A-class person, and still build a wildly successful business — Tim Rexius People really want to be surrounded by winners, so put on a winning attitude and watch the right opportunities find you — Tim Rexius  

Welcome back to the tenth season of the Eccles Business Buzz podcast. Today, guest-host Annesley Womble returns for a conversation with Colin Wright, Owner of Cole West Group, a real estate development group focused on developing master-planned communities, residential lots, urban infill communities and mixed-use properties throughout Utah. Wright traces his path from studying finance at the University of Utah, where real estate classes sparked his interest, to earning a master's in real estate development at Columbia University in New York, where he learned the private equity joint-venture model. When family and a great job opportunity brought him back to Utah, Wright found himself facing the Great Financial Crisis after leaving Ivory Homes too early. After pivoting to help build the University of Utah's Master of Real Estate Development curriculum, he taught classes to survive. Wright shares insights on timing, real estate cycles, partnerships, leadership, and scaling while reflecting on family pressures, Amy Chua's “Triple Package” framework, aspirations for campus and student housing, and his commitment to developing leaders, strengthening faith and family, and creating lasting impact.Eccles Business Buzz is a production of the David Eccles School of Business and is produced by University.fm.Eccles Business Buzz is proud to be selected by FeedSpot as one of the Top 70 Business School podcasts on the web. Learn more at https://podcast.feedspot.com/us_business_school_podcasts. Episode Quotes:On learning to become a better leader of people[21:41] I talked a little bit about, I think God made me to be an entrepreneur, deal maker, and I'm learning to be a good manager. So, as I started Cole West, same thing happened over again. I'm an entrepreneur. I'm growing. I started with three people. Next thing I know, I've got 30 people, and I'm back into this rut of, you know, managing HR problems versus doing deals. And that's when Darlene Carter, who we'd worked with previously, she came back and really helped fill that role of being an integrator and put me back in the seat of being a little bit more of an innovator, which is where I'm more comfortable.But every day I wake up, and I try to be a better integrator. I'm not giving up on, "Hey, you're just not a good leader. It's not natural to you." I wake up every day trying to be a better leader of people, and frankly, I think I have gotten a lot better just through effort, and attention, and study, and patience.Colin shares lessons from the Great Financial Crisis that shaped his company[15:07] So, I learned a ton about real estate cycles. It was the first one I really got to observe. My dad and Ellis Ivory lived through many in the '80s, and '90s, and 2000s, and they warned me and told me what it would be like 2006 to 2009. I watched it from the sidelines. And then 2022 to 2025, I lived it by having real estate investments. Personally, it was really hard. Couldn't pay the bills, you know, some kids and house payments, and it was really hard. I learned I wasn't ready, and that led me to a partnership with three other individuals. And I've always compared it to like a Madden score. If you're playing basketball or football on the Xbox, the players have a score from zero to 100. And in 2006, going into the GFC, I would guess my Madden score was like a 35 or 40. I thought it was 80 or 90, but it was probably a 35 or 40. And the way to survive coming out of that was to find three business partners who had complementing skill sets, where collectively we could be 100. And that was a good step for me, that if you're not an 80 or a 90 or 100, and you want to go into business, find some business partners that complement your Madden score so that you can get close to 100 and try to be successful, and that's what we did. So, we started a company, and the distress that was caused by the GFC, we started buying land and lots in Utah and Colorado, and we started a home builder called Henry Walker Homes. So, it was very entrepreneurial, three other partners, and we just went at it all together to try to work our way out of the Great Financial Crisis.Colin on President Randall's leadership & the U's world-class business education today[30:11] What President Randall has done over the past five years of, you know, you've got to put beds on campus, which he's doing an amazing job of, and then just the quality of learning at the U of U business school. I'm on the board at the business school. It's just amazing, the professors, the curriculum, the dean. It's just an amazing experience. It doesn't feel anything like it did when I was there. The kids, the energy, the entrepreneurs, the mentors, they have the access to these real estate classes. I mean, it is world-class. I firmly believe that.Show Links:Colin Wright | LinkedInCole West Group | AboutMaster of Real Estate Development | David Eccles Business SchoolDavid Eccles School of Business (@ubusiness) | InstagramUndergraduate Scholars ProgramsRising Business LeadersEccles Alumni Network (@ecclesalumni) | Instagram Eccles Experience Magazine

It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution at Barclays, and solicit his insights on change – in markets, in client relationships and in the growing role of technology across the financial ecosystem. We begin with Ronnie's early years at Goldman Sachs during the final stages of the technology bubble and the sharp market reversal that followed. He reflects on how periods of market stress, from the post-dot-com bear market to the GFC, have shaped his perspective on risk and the importance of being adaptable in markets that are constantly moving. The conversation then turns to the changing structure of institutional investing. Ronnie discusses the growth of hedge funds in pursuit of industrial-scale alpha generation, highlighting how client needs have become increasingly cross-asset, and solutions-oriented. He explains how a sell-side equities business today functions as an integrated ecosystem that spans prime brokerage, derivatives, electronic trading, and financing. A major theme throughout the discussion is the accelerating pace of technological change. Ronnie describes recent experiences using AI development tools and outlines how firms are integrating them into workflows ranging from onboarding and automation to research distribution and client analytics. We also explore the rise of bespoke and OTC solutions, including quantitative investment strategies, custom baskets, and exotic option structures. Here Ronnie emphasizes that these products reflect broader changes in market structure, positioning, and risk transfer across institutional portfolios. The conversation concludes with thoughts on recruiting, apprenticeship culture, and the need for firms to balance human judgment with increasingly sophisticated technological infrastructure.

Season 7, Episode 5: How did RREAF Holdings grow into a $4.8B real estate platform across multifamily, hospitality, BTR, and master-planned communities? Today, we sit down with Kip Sowden, Chairman & CEO of RREAF Holdings, and Doug McKnight, President of RREAF Holdings, to break down the strategy behind the firm's growth across the Sun Belt. Kip shares how he moved from brokerage into principal investing after the GFC, while Doug explains how his fixed income background shaped RREAF's approach to capital, risk, and liquidity. The conversation covers distressed acquisitions after 2008, bridge lender opportunities today, and why RREAF focuses on “all things residential” across the South and Southeast. Kip and Doug also break down their approach to multifamily, extended stay hotels, beachfront resorts, and large-scale Texas developments, while sharing why they believe a new real estate cycle is beginning. Shoutout to our sponsor, Henry AI. The fast track to investor-ready decks that actually stand out. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction 03:45 – Kip Sowden's Early Career in Brokerage and Mortgage Banking 09:28 – Moving Into Principal Investing and Launching RREAF 17:03 – Buying Distressed Notes and REO After the GFC 24:17 – Structuring $500M+ Multifamily Portfolio Deals 30:29 – Master-Planned Communities, BTR, and Texas Growth 36:39 – Why RREAF Is Bullish on Extended Stay Hotels 42:26 – Why RREAF Focuses on the South and Southeast 47:45 – Institutional Capital Returning to CRE 54:30 – Where RREAF Sees Opportunity in the Next Cycle For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

Season 7, Episode 4: How does a firm managing $17 billion navigate global real estate through high interest rates and a "hope-driven" market? Today, we sit down with Tim Mooney, partner and global head of real estate and Jim Dunbar, partner and head of real estate lending at Värde Partners. They break down how Värde operates across the capital stack, from senior lending and structured credit to niche equity platforms in student housing and medical offices. Tim and Jim share how their "distress roots" from the GFC shaped their current strategy of building sector-specific operating platforms like Trimont. They explain why today's cycle is a "slow trickle" compared to 2008, the reality of the upcoming maturity wall, and how they are synthetically creating mezzanine returns. Whether you're curious about AI's impact on real estate demand or looking for insights into international markets like India and Europe, this episode is a masterclass in institutional credit. Join us for an unfiltered look at the conviction and data-driven discipline required to manage a global alternative investment platform in today's cycle. Shoutout to our sponsor, Henry AI. The fast track to investor-ready decks that actually stand out. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction to Värde Partners 05:58 – Tim Mooney and Jim Dunbar's Backgrounds 10:05 – The Trimont Acquisition and Data Advantage 13:00 – Värde's Current Strategy: Staying Senior in the Stack 15:51 – Case Study: Repurposing Distressed New York Assets 22:44 – Lessons from the GFC vs. Today's "Hope-Driven" Market 30:50 – Middle Market Lending and Creating Synthetic Returns 34:26 – The Case for Medical Office and Student Housing Platforms 41:16 – AI Disruption and the Future of Productivity 45:15 – International Complexity: Lending in India and Europe For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and the collapsing consumer, revealing credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now at Great Financial Crisis levels while the economy has shifted from K-shaped to "i-shaped" with only a tiny dot at the top. He explains his letter "The Gambler" addresses how younger investors have abandoned real investing for a betting culture of sports gambling, one-day options, and Bitcoin, while most advisors no longer know when to "hold 'em or fold 'em." Ted maintains 50% cash in short-term treasuries, predicts inflation will hit 4.25% in May rising to 4.75% by fall with financial repression as the only way out of the debt trap, and reveals energy is his largest position up 35% year-to-date despite being only 3% of the S&P (it was 33% in 1980). He expects energy to rip like gold and silver did last year since nobody owns it yet, outlines his "well to the end" strategy covering producers to pipelines to rigs, confirms we're in early innings of a commodity super cycle, and warns speculation will continue pushing until a recession breaks the momentum. Ted draws parallels to 1999 when shorts got killed for nine more months, sees no recession on the horizon yet to break the fever, and cautions that baby boomers age 65+ hold more stock than ever in history making them the worst positioned he's ever seen for the eventual wealth transfer.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Ted Oakley returns, founder of Oxbow Advisors0:56 Two different things - Wall Street vs. the economy1:42 Consumer keeps falling apart - Credit card delinquencies at GFC levels2:24 K-shaped economy becoming more like an "i-shaped" economy3:32 "The Gambler" letter - Younger investors just betting, not investing4:02 Betting culture - Sports betting, one-day options, Bitcoin5:21 Know when to hold them, know when to fold them5:39 Cash position at 50% in short-term treasuries6:41 Long bond move - Topped 5.19% on 30-year6:57 Late 70s/early 80s parallel - Inflation went from 5% to 18%7:49 Are bond vigilantes coming back?7:54 Bond market eventually rules everything8:21 Expectation of more inflation ahead8:27 May CPI could come in at 4.25% or higher, 4.5-4.75% by fall9:30 Financial repression is the only way out10:36 Can't see how Fed cuts rates at all11:09 Asset holders benefited from inflation but that changes in linear inflation12:18 Energy is largest position - Up 35% vs. S&P's 20%13:11 Big tech stocks barely up from November/December levels13:41 Semiconductors probably at high for next 5 years14:34 Energy dramatically underweight in portfolios - Only 3% of S&P15:03 1980: Energy was 33% of S&P15:54 Energy names - Well to the end strategy16:53 Producers, midstream, rigs - The whole package17:34 Where we are in commodity cycle - Early innings18:38 Commodity positions - Rio Tinto, Vale, uranium, antimony, critical minerals19:18 Oil price and energy thesis20:16 AutoZone warning on motor oil shortages coming20:54 Precious metals positioning today21:54 Gold could go to $4,000 or $3,800 - Shake out momentum players23:12 1999 parallel - Momentum could continue 9 more months24:19 No recession on horizon - Need that to break momentum25:14 Speculative nature pushes until recession breaks it25:51 Second Generation Wealth - Massive wealth transfer concerns26:31 Baby boomers 65+ have most stock in assets ever in history27:22 Closing thoughts

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comMike Green has become famous for his work empirically proving that net positive passive capital flows have predominantly been responsible for the strong performance of stocks since the GFC.He has also warned that should those flows weaken, or even turn negative, stock prices will start moving in reverse.And he's starting to see early signs that they may indeed be starting to falter?When will that matter?And what will that really mean for markets?To find out, watch this video#passiveinvesting #retirementplanning #capitalflows _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Season 7, Episode 3: How did ACRE grow from a post-GFC workforce housing thesis into a global real estate investment firm? Today, we sit down with Michael Van Der Poel, Founding Partner at ACRE, to break down the strategy behind that rise. Michael shares how he spotted workforce housing before it became an institutional trade, and how ACRE built its early portfolio by buying distressed multifamily assets at deeply discounted prices. We also get into raising capital from Asia, building a vertically integrated platform, and expanding across both equity and credit strategies. Whether you're interested in capital raising, private credit, or where real estate opportunity sits in today's cycle, this episode is a must-listen. Join us as we dive into the conviction, timing, and risk discipline that helped ACRE grow from a scrappy startup into an institutional investment platform. Shoutout to our sponsor, Henry AI. The fast track to investor-ready decks that actually stand out. TOPICS 00:00 – Introduction 02:17 – Michael Van Der Poel's Background and Early Real Estate Career 06:55 – ACRE's Workforce Housing Thesis After the GFC 09:56 – Raising the First Fund and Buying Distressed Multifamily 15:00 – Building ACRE's Credit Platform 21:13 – Why ACRE Plays Across Equity, Credit, and Development 23:21 – Pricing Equity Risk and Finding Returns in Today's Market 38:50 – Rental Housing, AI Disruption, and the Future of Jobs 41:03 – Where ACRE Sees Opportunity Right Now 46:19 – Multifamily Outlook and the Next Buying Window For more episodes of No Cap by CRE Daily visit https://www.credaily.com/podcast/ Watch this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NoCapCREDaily About No Cap Podcast Commercial real estate is a $20 trillion industry and a force that shapes America's economic fabric and culture. No Cap by CRE Daily is the commercial real estate podcast that gives you an unfiltered ”No Cap” look into the industry's biggest trends and the money game behind them. Each week co-hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornik break down the latest headlines with some of the most influential and entertaining figures in commercial real estate. About CRE Daily  CRE Daily is a digital media company covering the business of commercial real estate. Our mission is to empower professionals with the knowledge they need to make smarter decisions and do more business. We do this through our flagship newsletter (CRE Daily) which is read by 65,000+ investors, developers, brokers, and business leaders across the country. Our smart brevity format combined with need-to-know trends has made us one of the fastest growing media brands in commercial real estate.

In this episode, Chris sits down with Matthew Ogle, Co-founder & CEO of Legacy Knight, a $2.8B multi-family office in Dallas, TX that he co-founded in 2019. We dig into how you build a world-class multi-family office from scratch - and why so many wealthy families out there don't actually have one yet. Matthew's path into wealth management didn't start in a boardroom - it started on a tennis court. A summer teaching tennis to a CIO's family at Cape Cod opened the first door, which led him to Credit Suisse's private bank through the GFC and then five years at the Crow family office, helping transform it into one of the first true multi-family offices in Dallas. He opened Legacy Knight's doors in October 2019 with $2.5M of operating capital, 14 seed families, and a contrarian bet - that the new generation of sub-50-year-old entrepreneurs hitting their first liquidity event needed something the bulge brackets couldn't offer. Six years later, Legacy Knight manages over $3B and was named the fastest-growing RIA in Texas. Chris and Matthew go deep on what it actually takes to build a multi-family office the right way - the technology, the hiring, the legacy conversations with families, and why Matthew refuses to grow by acquiring other books of business. They discuss: Why every hire at Legacy Knight comes out of the family office world, not from the bulge brackets How most $100M+ families are still running their wealth on a Google Doc and a handshake with their accountant Why "do nothing in the year after a liquidity event" is half good advice and half terrible advice The most creative things Matthew has seen ultra-wealthy families do with their capital How Matthew thinks about his own kids, legacy, and when to start the wealth conversation Links: Legacy Knight - https://legacyknight.com/ Matthew on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-ogle-ab11873/ Topics: (02:01) Matthew's First Exposure to Wealth Management (07:58) Joining Credit Suisse (Pre-GFC): Why the "Bulge Bracket" Mattered, How the Private Banking Associate Model Works (13:08) Why Credit Suisse Failed to Serve Ultra-High-Net-Worth Families (20:07) The First Client Meeting: Soft-Tissue Questions (28:57) Tax Timing and Mitigation Strategies (37:57) The Founding Thesis: People and Platform (Building Legacy Knight) (44:46) The Decision to Launch Legacy Knight Independently (54:43) Fundraising Lessons: Managing Expectations and The Importance of Pitch Order (01:01:18) The Full-Service Family Office Model (01:06:24) What a Vertically Integrated Family Office Actually Includes (01:09:07) Proactive Investment Sourcing (01:13:02) Next-Gen Engagement and Family Legacy Planning: How to Involve Children Appropriately (01:21:46) Matthew's Hiring Philosophy (01:30:05) Time as the Hidden Cost of Unstructured Wealth Support our Sponsors: Collateral Partners: https://collateral.com/fort Chris on Social Media: X: https://x.com/fortworthchris Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thepowerspodcast LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrispowersjr/ Visit our website: https://www.powerspod.com/ Leave a review on Apple: https://bit.ly/45crFD0 Leave a review on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3Krl9jO

My guest today is Alan Waxman, co-founder and CEO of Sixth Street, a $130B global investment firm. Private credit is one of the most discussed topics in markets right now, and there is a lot to make sense of. The current discourse is almost entirely focused on symptoms. Alan Waxman has spent the time diagnosing the root cause. Alan thinks about the financial system the way a historian would, studying the incentives, guardrails, and market structure that determine how things play out. In this conversation, he traces the evolution of American finance from the 1929 crash through Glass-Steagall, the GFC, and Basel III to explain how we arrived at what he calls the factory model, the industrialization of liability-gathering and asset deployment that he believes is the root cause of everything happening in private markets today. This is my second conversation with Alan, our first one is one of my favorites from last year.  For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.  ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Vanta. Trusted by thousands of businesses, Vanta continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Visit vanta.com/invest.  ----- This episode is brought to you by ⁠WorkOS⁠. WorkOS is a developer platform that enables SaaS companies to quickly add enterprise features to their applications. Visit ⁠WorkOS.com⁠ to transform your application into an enterprise-ready solution in minutes, not months. ----- Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best (00:02:43) Intro: Alan Waxman (00:04:35) Financial System Guardrails & Incentives (00:05:56) System 1: Pre-1933 to 1999 (00:07:39) Glass-Steagall Legislation (00:10:46) Deregulation & Rise of System 2 (00:12:27) Leverage, GFC, and System 2's Collapse (00:14:25) Basel III, Dodd-Frank, and System 3 (00:15:32) Why System 3 Could Be the Best Ever (00:19:04) Behavioral Shifts Starting in 2018 (00:19:52) The Factory Model (00:24:33) Acceleration of Factory Model (00:28:25) FRE Multiples and GP Incentives (00:34:59) Wealth Channel & Asset-Liability Mismatches (00:36:15) Why This Won't be the Next GFC (00:45:31) AI, Creative Destruction & Opportunity  (00:49:35) Alan's One-Sheet Brain System (00:55:01) Lessons by Decade: Hui (00:59:28) Face the Tiger