Podcasts about industrials

technology stocks slide sipc industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 13:52

The ASX 200 staged a remarkable comeback to finish down only 20 points at 8633 (-0.2%) after falling nearly 100 points in early trade. A stronger US futures market helped, as did a calming in the oil price and the absence of any collapse in Korea.Once again, though, we saw sector rotation, with the banks still under pressure. CBA fell 2.4%, WBC dropped 2.6%, and MQG eased 0.7%. The Big Bank Basket fell to $260.43 (-2.3%). Other financials performed slightly better, and insurers continued to do well, with QBE the star of the show, up 3.7%. REITs also gained, with CHC up 2.8% and SGP rising 3.3%. Industrials were a mixed bag. The rally in WES continues, and retail stocks held firm, with TLS up 0.4% and both WOW and COL continuing their strong winning streaks.Technology was once again very much on the nose, with tax-loss selling and ongoing pessimism surrounding SaaS business models. XRO fell 3.6%, WTC dropped 2.8%, and NXT was hit hard as well. Healthcare was a mixed bag of lollies, with CSL continuing to push higher, gaining another 4.2%. However, RMD fell 0.9%, while SIG continued to drift lower on concerns about a UK expansion push.Meanwhile, resources recovered some poise, although the move lacked conviction. BHP rose 1.0%, and some lithium names improved, with PLS rising alongside LTR, which enjoyed a strong day, up 4.2%. Gold stocks also found some support, with EVN up 2.1% and RMS also edging higher. Oil and gas stocks were stronger, with WDS up 1.6% and STO jumping 2.0%. While coal stocks recovered, uranium stocks continued to struggle.In corporate news, LLC rose 4.6% following the appointment of a new CEO and the maintenance of guidance between 28 cents and 34 cents. NST fell slightly as Elliott Investment Management called for further board changes. SXL dropped 4.4% after the company downgraded its full-year earnings outlook and announced 300 job cuts. AAI fell 8.3% following a warning about its Middle East operations.In economic news, the CBA said the RBA is likely to keep rates on hold for the first time this year. Australian wages rose 0.8% in May, with consistent growth recorded over the last 18 months.Asian markets weaker. Japan flat, Hong Kong down 1.0%, and China down 0.7%. South Korea fell slightly.US futures: Dow up 88 and Nasdaq up 150. Oil up 1.0%. Europe opening easier. ECB expected to hike rates today.Marcus Today – Daily Market Insights Marcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise. If you'd like to go further: Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcast Join Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offer MT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcast Principles – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast — Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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Stocks continue to slide led by Technology and Industrials

Bokor in the Morning

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2026 4:17

A brief look at financial markets with Bokor In the Morning brought to you by Steve Bokor at Ventum Financial Corp. a member of SIPC

End of Day Report – Wednesday 10 June: ASX 200 closes up 49 in volatile day - Industrials, healthcare and defensives push higher - Gold miners tumble - Lithium depressed

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2026 13:52

The ASX 200 showed solid gains to finish up 49 points at 8,653. Once again, it was the tale of two cities, with the best of times and the worst of times. The banks held steady, with CBA down 0.2%, and WBC doing well, up 2.0%. Insurers also pushed higher, led by QBE up 2.4%, and even ASX up 0.6%, with the Big Bank Basket at $266.54. Elsewhere, industrials were once again stronger, with defensive stocks taking the bull by the horns. WES rose 4.3%, TLS rose 2.0%, and both the supermarket stocks WOW and COL did very well, building on recent gains in the healthcare space. CSL was also strong as it looks to have turned the corner, up 3.5%, with SHL also firm, although SIG fell 5.5% on the back of media speculation that it was looking at buying the Boots chemist chain in the UK. REITs were positive, with GMG up 1.6%, CHC up 1.8%, and other industrials faring okay. Retail also had a good bounce, with JBH up 3.5% and ALL up 2.2%. Technology stocks were still very much in the doghouse, with XRO down 2.0%, TNE down 2.3%, and NXT down 4.1%. Utilities firmed in this environment, and the All-Tech Index fell 1.8%.Meanwhile, resources were once again on the nose, with BHP up 0.2%, and RIO and FMG also falling as iron ore came under pressure. Lithium stocks fell, PLS down 1.7%, and LTR falling a big 8.0%, with MIN also suffering heavy losses. The gold sector was also slammed again as the gold price fell out of bed, with NST down 3.5%, EVN falling 5.0%, and RMS also having a bad day, down 3.8%. Over in the energy space, Woodside slipped slightly, and Santos pushed ahead somewhat, with coal stocks under pressure, WHC down 4.4%, and uranium stocks still on the nose.In corporate news, SDF rose 36.2% after receiving a $6.00 non-binding indicative offer. IGO fell hard after a fire broke out at the Chemical Grade Plant 3 facility at Greenbushes. WES had a good investor day reaction, saying it would drive growth through AI and data monetisation. Citi downgraded banks following the budget changes. In economic news, the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive week, lifting two points to 70.8.Asian markets weaker. Japan down 1.9% Hong Kong down 0.9%, and China down 1.1%. South Korea falls again.US futures: Dow down 78 and Nasdaq down 132. Oil down 1.5%. Europe opening easier. Marcus Today – Daily Market Insights Marcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise. If you'd like to go further: Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcast Join Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offer MT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcast Principles – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast — Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

End of Day Report – Tuesday 9 June: ASX 200 rallies back hard to close down 21 - Healthcare - Industrials - REITs all better - Resources suffer - US Futures positive.

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2026 12:43

The ASX 200 closed down 21 points at 8604 (0.2%), well off its lows for the day, with most sectors rallying throughout the session and the banking sector staging a turnaround. CBA fell 0.3%, with the Big Bank Basket easing only slightly to $265.42 (0.4%). Financials were generally firm, with MQG up 0.7%, while the insurance sector also performed well, led by QBE up 0.9% and MPL higher. REITs enjoyed a solid session, with GMG up 0.3% and SCG rising 1.6%. TLS also had a strong day, gaining 2.2%, although REA was a disappointment, falling heavily. Both WOW and COL posted gains as defensive buying in the supermarket sector helped push them higher. Retail stocks were also in demand, led by WES up 1.3% and APE rising 4.3%.Healthcare was another bright spot, with CSL recovering a further 1.6% and RMD also posting gains. Elsewhere, technology stocks remained under pressure but recovered from their lows, with XRO down 1.1% and WTC off 4.6%, while the All-Tech Index fell 0.1%.It was a different story in resources, although the sector also bounced from early lows. BHP fell 1.9% and RIO dropped 1.8% as iron ore and copper prices weakened. Gold stocks were also under pressure, with NST down3.3% and NEM lower. Lithium stocks slipped away, with MIN falling 2.6% and LTR off 3.3%. In energy, WDS rose alongside STO, although gains were relatively muted. Uranium stocks came under heavy pressure, with PDN dropping 8.8% and DYL down 7.6% as short sellers gained the upper hand.In corporate news, OML had a good day, up 9.6%, after receiving yet another NBIO, this time from Bain Capital. QUB rose 0.4% after the PNG competition regulator backed the company's planned takeover by Macquarie. On the economic front, NAB is now saying the next move in local interest rates is likely to be a cut. Business confidence rebounded as price pressures softened, according to the NAB Business Survey. However, Australian consumer confidence slipped back towards record lows, with the Melbourne Institute-Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 80.6, one of the lowest readings in its history.Asian markets mixed. Japan up 2.1%, Hong Kong up 0.1%, and China up 0.8%. South Korea jumps 8%.US futures: Dow up 8 and Nasdaq up 170. Oil down 1.5%. Europe opening slightly easier. Marcus Today – Daily Market Insights Marcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise. If you'd like to go further: Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcast Join Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offer MT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcast Principles – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast — Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

End of Day Report – Friday 5 June: ASX 200 drops 61 - Down 1.2% for the week - Banks and Miners struggle - Healthcare soars - US futures ease - NFP tonight

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2026 14:23

The ASX 200 finished the week on a sour note as the index fell 61 points to 8621 (-0.7%), ending the week down 1.2%. Banks were ugly today after Morgan Stanley downgraded the sector outlook. The Big Bank Basket fell to $266.42 (1.5%), with CBA off 1.7% and WBC sliding 1.2%. Other financials held up better, with MQG unchanged, ASX up 1.5% and ZIP rising 1.7%. Insurers also found some friends again. REITs were better too, with CHC up 1.1% and SGP rising 1.1%. Industrials pushed higher, with WES up 0.4%, while WOW and COL also performed well. Retailers were mixed, with JBH up 1.0% and APE drifting lower. Healthcare stocks were back from the ICU. CSL had its biggest one-day rise since 2022, up 5.8% as the rotation into the sector gathered pace. Even RMD enjoyed a very positive session, gaining 4.3%. PME rose 4.0% and COH added 5.6%.In the tech space, MP1 soared 15.2% after its capital raising, with Citi upgrading its price target by 41%. The All-Tech Index rose 0.7%, with CPU also trading higher.Resources, however, remained in a world of pain as profit-taking continued in BHP and RIO, with FMG down 2.3%. Rare earths and critical minerals stocks also unwound as the AI trade ran out of steam and copper prices fell. LYC dropped 2.9%, MIN fell 5.1% and SFR lost 1.2%. Gold miners drifted lower once again, with NST down 2.5% and NEM off 1.2%. Energy stocks were weaker, with WDS falling 1.3% and STO down 0.6%, while coal stocks slipped and uranium stocks found some nervous support.In corporate news, NHF rose 2.5% on the sale of an insurance business. RSG fell hard following its production report, while AGI rallied 16.8% after two directors resigned.Asian markets mixed. Japan down 1.0%, Hong Kong down 1.0%, and China down 0.7%. South Korea eases back around 1.6%US futures: Dow up 8 and Nasdaq down 280. Oil unchanged. NFP tonight.Marcus Today – Daily Market Insights Marcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise. If you'd like to go further: Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcast Join Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offer MT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcast Principles – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast — Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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AI Trade Broadens: Beyond Mega Caps Into Industrials, Materials

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2026 7:50

BlackRock's Kristy Akullian highlights strong S&P 500 (SPX) earnings growth and a broadening AI trade beyond mega cap tech into sectors like industrials and materials. She emphasizes diversification across asset classes, including intermediate bonds, gold, and digital assets, to navigate the market.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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End of Day Report – Wednesday 3 June: ASX 200 jumps 61 - Off highs - GDP light on - BHP hits another record - Tech falls - Uranium soars.

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2026 15:24

The ASX 200 jumped 61 points after a slow start to 8756, with GDP coming in a little light, giving the RBA room to hold rates. Banks rebounded, with CBA up 1.1% and ANZ doing well, up 1.9%, as the Big Bank Basket rose to $275.51 (+1.1%). Other financials were a little mixed, GQG fell 1.4%, AMP slid 2.0% and HUB fell 0.9%. Insurers were steady as she goes.Industrials firmed in places, with WES down 0.2 %, while WOW and COL did better. Healthcare remains in ICU, with CSL falling another 0.4% and RMD down 0.7%. Tech stocks were under pressure after a great run in recent days, with XRO down 3.5% and WTC falling 2.1%, while the All Tech Basket down 0.7%.Resources, and especially copper stocks, were the stars of the show again. BHP hit new records, up 2.4%, and RIO gained 1.6%. Rare earths got a boost, with LYC up 2.8% and ARU gaining %. Uranium stocks fired up on some Urenco news from the US, with PDN up 11.5% and BOE gaining 7.6% as the shorts ran for cover. STO had a good day too, while WDS was flat.In corporate news, SLC jumped 0.3% on an upgrade to earnings, MP1 entered a trading halt pending a large capital raising, ALD rallied 3.4% on watchdog approvals and INA soared 5.4% on earnings confirmation. TLC lowered guidance and slipped 1.5%. In economic news, GDP came in a little light at 0.3% for the quarter and 2.6% for the year, giving the RBA a good excuse to stay pat.Asian markets mixed. Japan up 2.8%, Hong Kong down 1.7%, and China up 1.6%. South Korea closed for local elections.US futures: Dow down 32 and Nasdaq down 13. Oil up 1.0%. Surprising given the hostilities in the Gulf.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

End of Day Report – Tuesday 2 June: ASX 200 fights back from 100 down to close down 5 - BHP hits new record - Tech booms.

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2026 12:48

The ASX 200 rallied hard off lows to close down 5 pts at 8724 (0.1%). CBA turned around, recovering well, the Big Bank Basket closed at $269.61 (- 0.8%). Insurers slipped, led by QBE off 1.3% and IAG down 2.2%. REITs too were under pressure, GMG off 0.4% and CHC falling 1.0%. Healthcare remains in the kennel, CSL falling another 1.7% with RMD off 2.1% and COH down 4.3%. Industrials slipped a little, BXB down 1.6% and ALQ falling 1.1%. Retail stocks were also on the nose following the minimum pay award update. JBH crumbled 5.4%, NCK down 3.1%. DMP dropped 5.9% on the wage news. Tech stocks were the stars of the show again today, WTC up 7.9% and XRO jumping 7.5%, with the All-Tech Index up 3.9%. REA had a good day, as did CAR.BHP and RIO once again pushed higher on copper exposure, the Big Australian hitting new records, up 1.4%. Gold miners recovered, with NST shooting the lights out as activist shareholder Elliott took a big position and called for change. Uranium stocks eased back again, PDN down 5.9% and DYL falling 5.3%.In corporate news, SRG jumped 16.6% on $1.85bn in new contracts. TEA soared 16.2% on an acquisition, DRO up 3.6% on a new $24.1m contract, and 4DX had a bad day on CT news. NST jumped on calls for change. On the economic front, consumer sentiment rose and the BoP fell as exports eased back. Asian markets mixed. Japan down 0.5%, Hong Kong up 1.8%, and China up 1.3%. US futures: Dow down 172 and Nasdaq down 83. Oil up 1.2%.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Monday 1 June: ASX 200 slips 2pts - Tech stars - Healthcare and banks slide - Oil up 2.6% - Resources mixed.

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2026 10:36

The ASX 200 consolidated Friday's gains with a loss of 2 point to 8729. Tech stocks were the star attraction, with REA up 1.5%, WTC up 8.7% and XRO rising 7.6%. The All-Tech Index rose 3.8%. Healthcare remains on the nose, with CSL dropping another 2.5% and RMD pummeled down 7.6%. REITs also slid, with CHC off % and SCG falling %. Banks were mixed, with CBA down 1.0% and WBC up 0.4%, leaving the Big Bank Basket down to $271.87 (-0.6%). Financials were mostly better, with ZIP rallying 5.2% as tech took off. Industrials were a mixed bag. TCL fell 1.8% and LNW dropped 1.0%, while BXB rallied 1.4% and CPU rose 0.9%.In resources, BHP was slightly firmer, RIO rose 1.6% and FMG improved. Gold miners were generally better, with EVN up 2.4% and CMM rallying 1.3%. Lithium stocks were on a charge, with PLS up 4.3% after huge rebalancing volumes last week, LTR up 3.3% and MIN up 1.2%. WDS and STO both made modest gains, as did uranium and coal stocks.In corporate news, LLC lost 5.5% after agreeing to sell the development rights in the Milano Santa Giulia mixed-use project in Milan. SYR soared 16.2% after its offtake dispute with Tesla was resolved, with the electric vehicle maker accepting that the alleged default conditions had been cured. MYX fell 2.9% as it expanded its US commercial footprint. CTT rose 25.5% as it moved to expand its presence in China through the launch of a flagship store on Tmall Global.On the economic front, ANZ-Indeed Australian job ads lifted 1.8%. Asian markets eased. Japan up 0.9%, HK up 0.8% and China down 0.6%. Korea up 4.1%.US futures up slightly, Dow up 49 and Nasdaq up 175. European markets set to open flat. Oil up 2.5%.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Friday 29 May: ASX 200 up 139, 0.9% for the week | CBA drags banks higher

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2026 14:50

The ASX 200 jumped 139 points to close the week at 8732 (+1.6%) on a very firm note as hopes built that there will be some resolution, or at least an extension of the ceasefire in the Middle East. There seemed to be a lot of short covering around today after the 125-point fall yesterday. We reversed that today, with the banking sector bouncing back hard, with CBA up 2.2%, NAB up 0.6%, and the Big Bank Basket up to $273.55 (+1.6%). Financials across the board bounced, with MQG up 1.1%, and even ASX rallying slightly, but it was resources that were really carrying the day today, as copper stocks advanced with BHP up 2.9%, RIO up 1.2%, and FMG also doing well, up 2.4%.The gold miners had a good day yesterday after falling around 7%, with NST up 3.4% and EVN up 4.2%. Copper stocks and lithium pushed higher, with S32 also up 3.0%, although we saw some obvious selling in the oil and gas plays, with WDS unchanged and STO down 0.5%. Uranium stocks firmed slightly in this heady environment. Tech stocks saw some modest buying, with NXT up 1.7%, CAR doing very well, and TNE up 2.0%. Industrials and retail rose slightly. We also saw good buying with JBH up 1.2%, BXB up 0.1%, and QAN doing well on the back of lower crude prices.In corporate news today, JDO had a great day after expanding its securitisation deal. IEL was trashed 16.2% after Macquarie slashed its target price, and THL soared 26.1% after a non-binding indicative offer from BGH Capital. Nothing on the economic front today. All eyes are on whether Donald Trump signs off on the latest proposal.Asian markets eased. Japan up 1.4%, HK up 0.7% and China down 1%. US futures up slightly, Dow up 42 and Nasdaq up 29. European markets set to open around 0.2% higher.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Thursday 28 May: ASX 200 drops 125 points | Banks and gold on the nose

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2026 14:04

The ASX 200 took a dive today, down another 125pts at 8593 (1.4%), as the peace deal in the Gulf is starting to slide away. Banks and gold bore the brunt of the selling, with CBA off 2.1% and WBC down 1.3%, with the Big Bank Basket at $269.32 (-1.9%). Insurers also fell hard, QBE down 2.8% and IAG off 1.6%, with financials generally easier, while ASX continues lower.REITs also fell as bond yields rose, GMG off 1.2% and SCG down 0.8%. Old-school platforms remained under pressure, SEK down 3.9% and REA off 1.1%. Tech fell hard too, XRO off 2.6% and WTC falling 1.6%. The All-Tech Index dropped 1.1%. Healthcare was also under pressure, CSL fell 1.7% and RMD down 1.4%. Supermarkets held up. Industrials slid, BXB down 2.5% and QAN falling 1.5% as oil prices rose.Resources were sold down as bullion fell heavily and gold stocks turned nasty, NEM down 7.5% and EVN off 7.7%. Lithium stocks held up, PLS up 0.3%, while rare earths fell, LYC off 2.5%. Uranium stocks drifted lower, PDN down 1.7%. The big iron ore miners were also under pressure, BHP down 1.2% and RIO falling 2.5%.In corporate news, SDR rallied 8.6% after a new partnership deal. CSL dropped again despite the new CEO topping up his holding. VUL rose 2.3% as its financing package closed. And EOS had a good day, up 4.2% on some new director signings.On the economic front, April household spending collapsed much more sharply than expected, down 1.1% over the month.Asian markets eased. Japan off 0.5%, HK down 1.4% and China off 0.1%.US futures down slightly, Dow down 12 and Nasdaq off 141. European markets set to open around 0.7% lower. Oil up 3% on renewed hostilities.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Monday 25 May: ASX 200 up 35 points | Gold jumps, oil and gas fall

Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2026 10:59

The ASX 200 kicked off the week up 35 points to 8692 (0.4%) as optimism on a peace deal washed through. Some scepticism remains, so it was a cautious start to the week. US markets are closed tonight. Banks held firm as NAB rose 1.1% and CBA dropped 0.7%. The Big Bank Basket was steady around $275.42. Insurers slid as yields fell, QBE off 2.1% and MQG lost 1.1%. Other financials were mixed, ASX down 1.2% with HUB up 2.4%. REITs were mixed too, GMG down 0.8% but CHC doing well on an upgrade, up 6.7%. Industrials were mixed, with defensives out of favour. TLS fell 0.9% and REA off 0.3%. WOW and COL steady. Retail rose as bond yields slid, WES up 1.5% and JBH up 1.3%. Tech found its feet, WTC up 0.8% and XRO rising 1.0%, with the All-Tech Index down 0.5%.In resources, RIO and FMG were all up around 1.6% or better. BHP rose 0.6%. Gold miners bounced hard, NST up 5.7% and EVN up 4.2%, with copper stocks also trading higher, SFR up 2.2%. Lithium and rare earths were mildly positive, LYC up 0.7% and MIN rising 2.7%. Oil and gas stocks eased back, WDS down 4.2%, and coal stocks had a great day after issues at one mine in China.In corporate news, QAN announced the London-Sydney non-stop route would be delayed by a year. It rallied 5.8% on oil falls. CHC rallied on another earnings upgrade. BPT fell 1.3% after selling a 60% stake in its Otway Basin project.In economic news, nothing today.Asian markets were better, with Japan up 3.1%, Hong Kong up 0.9%, China up 0.8%, and the Kospi up modestly. US futures were better, with the Dow up 404 and the Nasdaq up 420. Oil down 5.5% The US and UK are closed today.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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Wall Street Bull Brian Belski Sees Correction Before S&P Run Into the 8,000s

On The Tape

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2026 54:11

Brian Belski joins Dan Nathan to break down why he still sees the S&P 500 moving higher — but warns a correction may come first. Belski explains why this is now an earnings-driven market, why the Mag 7 may begin to hand leadership to the other 493 stocks, and what could trigger the next pullback. He also shares his views on AI stocks, SpaceX/OpenAI IPOs, financials, industrials, housing, rates, and why he believes the market could still end the year with “an 8 handle.” Topics include:• Why Brian Belski expects a correction before another rally• The case for S&P 8,000 (and why it won't be a straight line)• AI enthusiasm, IPO mania & whether we're in a bubble• Why he's bullish on financials, industrials & select cyclicals• Treasury yields, housing, Walmart, Deere & the consumer outlook• What could actually trigger the next bear market Timecodes 00:00 Intro + Brian Belski Returns02:00 Inside Belski's New ETF (HIS) & Stock-Picking Strategy05:45 How Belski Nailed the S&P 7,000 Call08:30 Why 2026 Is an “Earnings-Driven” Market09:45 Why Belski Expects a Market Correction10:45 Mag 7 vs. The Other 493 Stocks14:00 Walmart Warning, Consumer Trends & Retail Risks17:15 Deere, Industrials & Why AI Could Benefit Old Economy Stocks20:00 Why Belski Still Likes Financials Despite Weak Performance21:45 Airlines, FedEx & The Transport Trade24:00 Housing, Homebuilders & What Happens If Rates Fall26:45 Will Treasury Yields Finally Move Lower?31:00 SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic IPO Risks33:00 Could AI IPOs Trigger a Market Shake-Up?39:00 The AI Trade: Bubble, Boom or Just Getting Started?44:00 What Wall Street Is Missing in Software & AI45:45 Timing the Next Market Correction48:00 What Could Actually Cause a Bear Market?49:45 Belski's S&P Outlook: Why He Sees an “8 Handle” This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity's most powerful trading experience yet: ⁠www.Fidelity.com/TraderPlus⁠ Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. Xxx —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

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End of Day Report – Friday 22 May: ASX 200 rises 35, up 27 for the week | Tech slips

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2026 14:19

The ASX 200 rallied another 35 points to 8657 (0.4%) ahead of a US long weekend. Up 27 pts for the week. Banks pushed ahead, led by CBA up 0.9 %, and the Big Bank Basket to $275.57 (0.8%). Insurers slid as yields fell, NWL off 1.0% and GQG falling 2.2% as tech boomed. Industrials were mixed, TLS fell 1.5% as a broker downgraded the stock, REA continued lower, off 4.1%, as did CAR off 2.8%, with tech stocks also continuing to be pressured. XRO down 0.9% and WTC falling 1.4%, with the All-Tech Index up 0.4% Utilities were also weaker, ORG off 1.8% and APA falling 0.3%.Resources were generally better, BHP rose 1.1% and RIO up another 1.7%, with S32 doing well, up 5.1% and lithium stocks rising, PLS up 2.9% as gold miners found some bargain hunters. NEM up 0.8% and EVN gaining 3.1%. NST continued to suffer, down 0.6%. Oil and gas mixed. In corporate news, uranium stocks were better, PDN up 5.9% and DYL rising on broker upgrades.In corporate news, ARU entered a trading halt to raise another $350m at 26c. GYG jumped 9.6% as it announced plans to close the US business. APX jumped 9.4% on a trading update. TUA steady as the M1 deal was pronounced DOA. MYX won a small settlement against Cosette for the failed bid.In economic news, the Japanese CPI came in below expectations.Asian markets were better, with Japan up 2.8%, Hong Kong up 1.2%, China up 0.6%, and the Kospi up modestly. US futures were better, with the Dow up 155 and the Nasdaq up 150. European futures are opening around 0.5% lower. Oil up 2.0%. The US and UK are closed Monday.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Thursday 21 May: ASX 200 jumps 125 points | Strong lead and jobs help

Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2026 14:01

The ASX 200 bounced back 125 points to 8,622 (1.5%) as the roller coaster continued this week. News from the White House on peace progress was the kicker, together with unemployment numbers coming in worse than expected at 4.5%. Pressure off the RBA. Both banks and resources fired today, with CBA up 0.9% and WBC rising 2.2%, with the Big Bank Basket rising to $273.39 (+1.4%). MQG jumped 1.7% and other financials also did well, with IFT up 4.6% and CGF rallying 1.9%. REITs were also back in demand as yields fell, with GMG up 2.8% and GPT rising 1.5%. Industrials firmed, with WES up 1.4% and CSL rising 1.6%, while RMD was also back in demand, up 1.2%. QAN jumped 3.1% on lower crude prices and VGN took off 9.3%, although volumes were small.Retailers were better as yields cooled and unemployment may mean the RBA is on hold again. JBH up 3.4% and HVN up 2.1%. GYG had a strong day on a broker upgrade, up 13.0%. Tech stocks were mixed. CAT jumped 10.9% after numbers yesterday, with broker upgrades helping. TNE dipped 2.3%, WTC fell 0.5%, and the All-Tech Index was up 0.3%In resources, BHP jumped 3.1% on copper exposure, RIO up 3.2%, and gold miners were back in favour. NST fell 2.1% as the CEO stepped down. EVN up 3.8% and GMD rising 0.7%. Lithium stocks were better, with LTR up 4.2% and MIN jumping 2.9%. Oil and gas stocks eased back, as did coal, but uranium stocks rose.In corporate news, SGH fell 0.8% after a very in-depth investor day. IPX rose 5.2% after commissioning a 300-tonne axis SACMI in US. On the economic front, unemployment came in worse than economists expected at 4.5%. Morgan Stanley is predicting the largest house price correction in 40 years! The bank is talking a 10% fall. Asian markets better, Japan up 3.2%, Hong Kong down 0.7%, China down 0.6%. Kospi up 8.2%US futures ease with Dow down 74, Nasdaq down 6. European futures opening around 1% lower. Oil up 1%.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Wednesday 20 May: ASX 200 smacked 108 points again | Resources under pressure

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2026 13:15

The ASX 200 gave up yesterday's gain and more, dropping another 108 points to 8,497 (1.3%) as the rout continues. Resources bore the brunt of the selling as inflation fears stoked higher rates and tore through commodities. BHP fell 2.3% and RIO off 1.5% with gold miners under pressure again, EVN down 4.9% and NEM falling 4.5%. Oil and gas firmed, but uranium stocks eased back, PDN down 4.5%. Lithium stocks found some friends with PLS up 1.9%. Industrials were also weak across the board as TLS fell 1.1% and REA dipped 2.0%. Tech stocks couldn't shrug off the negativity despite good results from CAT and broker upgrades to TNE. Healthcare drifted lower.Banks were hit hard as one broker said conditions were tough, WBC fell 2.4% with ANZ off 2.1% and the Big Bank Basket falling to $269.72 (0.8%). Other financials also under pressure, MQG fell 2.0% and NWL and HUB dropped. Insurers also saw sellers, QBE off 1.0% and IAG down 0.4%. REITs fell as bond yields rose again. GMG down 2.1% and CHC falling 3.3%.In corporate news, WJL tumbled 11.2% after earnings came in worse than expected and guidance was moved down. JHX fell 0.9% after lacklustre results too. EOS tumbled 10.3% as it raised funds at 800c and FLT fell 3.6% after a US$5m US strategic acquisition.On the economic front, total wages and salaries paid by employers rose 1.4% to a record $110.6bn in March. National Australia Bank says weekly consumer spending patterns have stabilised with travel especially weak.Asian markets fell, Japan down 1.6%, Hong Kong down 0.7%, China flat. Kospi down 2.8%.US futures mixed with Dow down 31, Nasdaq up 32. European futures opening around 1% lower. Oil down slightly.Nvidia tonight in the US. European futures opening around 0.6% lower.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

The Case for Staying Bullish on Equities

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2026 5:48

Despite recent pressure on stocks, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that earnings and AI's impact remain stronger than many investors appreciate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our bullish mid-year outlook and why stocks have been under pressure more recently. It's Tuesday, May 19th at 1:30 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Every cycle has a moment when investors become so focused on the last risk that they miss the next opportunity. I think we're in one of those moments right now. The first half of this year has had a familiar feel to it. The market weakened under the surface well before the headlines got loud, investors discovered the new risks after prices had already moved, and sentiment got worse just as the forward setup was getting better. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again – but with some important twists. The biggest twist is where we are in the cycle. Last year, we were still coming out of the tail end of a rolling recession. Today, we're in a rolling recovery and that is still underappreciated. This matters, because it changes how we should interpret the correction earlier this year and a powerful rally. In the first quarter, many investors looked at the S&P 500's less-than-10 percent price decline and concluded the market was complacent. I think that really misses the point. Roughly half of the Russell 3000 saw drawdowns of 20 percent or more, and the S&P 500 forward Price Earnings multiple fell by 18 percent from its peak as forward earnings continued to rise. That is not complacency. That is a market doing what it does best – discounting risk before the narrative catches up. And those risks were not small. We had private credit concerns, and a major debate around AI disruption to labor markets as well as a new war that drove oil prices up by 100 percent. In many of the areas most directly exposed to these risks, the market delivered 40 percent-plus corrections. So the provocative question I would ask now is this: what if the biggest risk from here is not being too bullish, but being too cautious after the market has already done the work? We address these questions in our recently published mid-year outlook. Specifically, we raised our 12 month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts. In fact, we assume some further valuation compression. We raised our S&P 500 EPS by approximately 5 percent as operating leverage from the rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support and a capex cycle that continues to broaden. That earnings point is critical. In prior cycles when oil shocks ended the business cycle, earnings were already decelerating or contracting outright before the shock hit. Today, the opposite is happening. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels. First-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise was 6 percent, the strongest in four years; and earnings revisions breadth has moved back up to 22 percent from just 5 percent at the start of reporting season. That is a very different backdrop than the traditional late-cycle oil shock playbook. AI is another area where I think the consensus has evolved. The labor market disruption narrative has moved faster than the actual implementation. The enterprise application layer is still early, and for now, AI looks more like a margin tailwind than a labor-market wrecking ball. Companies are running leaner, hiring less, and beginning to quantify real benefits rather than simply firing everyone. While true adoption of this technology is likely to be slower than anticipated, the apprehension to over-hire is real and that is driving higher profitability in an indirect way. Monetary policy and liquidity are still the main risks to this bull market rising unimpeded. With the Fed becoming less dovish and liquidity needs rising, interest rates are on the rise and the equity-rate correlation is negative again. The 4.5 percent level on the 10-year Treasury remains important for valuations. We don't need Fed cuts for the equity market to work. History suggests that when earnings growth is strong and the Fed is on hold, returns can still be very solid. The real risk is liquidity – whether the Fed and Treasury underestimates how much capital the private economy now needs to fund investment and recovery.Ultimately, the Fed and Treasury have tools to address these liquidity needs and they have been using them aggressively this year. However, these provisions can ebb and flow and we are currently in a window where it's going to ebb, leaving stocks vulnerable in the short term. If the correction persists, investors should use that as an opportunity to add exposure to the parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery, specifically Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary Goods. The breadth of the earnings and capex cycle remains under-appreciated, not to mention the recovery from the rolling recession that ended with Liberation Day a year ago. The bottom line is simple. The correction earlier this year was more significant than most appreciate in terms of valuation and the earnings story is only getting better. The path won't be smooth, so use any corrections to position for the continued broadening in earnings that we believe will continue.Just remember, by the time the evidence feels obvious, the opportunity is usually gone. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out! And I wish my wife a happy birthday.

End of Day Report – Tuesday 19 May: ASX 200 jumps 99 | Banks lead rebound, CSL better too

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2026 14:01

The ASX 200 bounced back 99 points today to 8605 (1.2%) as banks led the recovery. CBA gained % with the Big Bank Basket up to $271.83 (=1.5%%). NAB the standout gaining 2.0%. MQG also had a good day up 1.9% and insurers did well as higher bond yields helped, QBE up 2.9% and MPL rising 2.1%. REITs also had a better day with GMG up 1.8% and CHC up 2.2%.Industrials were firm, WES finally finding buyers up 2.4% and TLS gained 2.6%. WOW and COL both did very well on some broker upgrades. Healthcare also found support, CSL up 2.6% and RMD gaining 2.0%. BXB fell another 0.6% and TUA up 17.6% after a 68% fall yesterday. Tech slightly better with the All-Tech Index up 0.8%.Resources eased back, iron ore off in Asia, BHP down 0.1% and FMG down 0.3% with gold miners mixed, NEM up 1.8% and NST falling 0.7%. Lithium and rare earth stocks slid, LYC down 4.3% and PLS falling 1.3%. Oil and gas stocks held, uranium stocks gained, coal better too.In corporate news, MIN rose 2.6% after it announced a restart at Bald Hill, SLC flagged a 4.5m share purchase for staff. TNE fell 2.9% as FX headwinds hurt.On the economic front, RBA minutes pointed to a pause perhaps from the RBA. Asian markets bounced a little, Japan down 0.5%, HK flat, China down 0.4% Kospi down 2.8%.US futures lower with Dow down 39, Nasdaq down 105. European futures opening around 1% lower. Oil down around 2%.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Monday 18 May: ASX 200 sinks 126 as bond yields rise and commodities fall

Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2026 14:01

The ASX 200 fell 126 points to 8,505 (-1.5%) today in a dismal start to the week. Thankfully, the banking sector held up relatively well, with CBA posting a 1% rise, while insurers also performed strongly on the back of higher bond yields. The Big Bank Basket rose to $267.83 (+0.3%). Other financials did not fare as well, with MQG falling 2.6%, HUB down 1.1%, and the REIT sector also under pressure, with GMG down 4.0% and CHC off 3.5%.Industrials were weaker across the board, with the healthcare sector hit again. CSL fell 1.8% and RMD dropped 0.5%. A couple of poor results this morning set the tone for further weakness in industrials, with SGH down 2.9% and BXB falling 20.2% on a downgrade to earnings, as pallet repair apparently became a thing. The tech space was mixed, with XRO falling 2.0%, although WTC rose slightly, helping the All-Tech Index finish marginally lower.The real damage today came from the resources sector as iron ore stocks reversed and copper prices came under pressure. BHP fell 2.8% and RIO dropped 3.6% as sentiment towards bulk miners deteriorated.Gold miners were also under pressure as bullion prices eased, even while the oil price rose. NST fell 2.4%, while EVN suffered the double whammy of weaker gold and copper prices. Oil and gas stocks were inevitably firmer as crude prices pushed higher. WDS rose 2.9%, while STO gained a similar amount. Uranium stocks slipped again, with PDN down 2.5% and BOE off 3.8%.In corporate news, three major stories stood out. TUA dropped an astonishing 62.8% following issues in Singapore relating to its spectrum licences. ELD also came under pressure, down 22.9%, as higher diesel prices and a messy result hurt sentiment. Meanwhile, the downgrade from BXB simply added to today's misery. Down 20.8%There was little on the economic front today, although all eyes remain firmly fixed on bond markets as inflation fears continue to build. Asian markets drop hard, Japan down 0.7%, HK off 1.1%, China down 0.6% Kospi bouncing US futures lower with Dow down 386 Nasdaq down 192. European futures opening around 1% lower. Oil up over 1.2%.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Friday 15 May: ASX 200 falls 10 points | Banks bounce, resources sink

Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2026 11:54

The ASX 200 eased back another 10 points to 8631 (0.1%), capping off a miserable week at the index level. The index fell 1.3% this Budget week, mainly as banks crashed with CBA in focus. Banks made up some lost ground after significant falls this week, with CBA up 1.9%, ANZ up 1.1%, and the Big Bank Basket rising to $266.97 (1.4%). Insurers had a good day, with QBE rising 1.9% and SUN also doing well. REITs strengthened, with VCX up 1.6% and GPT also leading the charge. Industrials were firm too, with stocks like SHG, REH, and WOR all posting solid gains today. Even the supermarkets WOW and COL were firmer despite recent court woes.Healthcare edged higher, with RMD up 1.2% and CSL finding some friends, up 0.7% , but the real stars of the show today were, surprisingly, the tech space, with XRO bouncing 8.1% following yesterday's results and WTC also having a strong day, with the All-Tech Index bouncing 2.3%.Whilst banks, industrials, and technology stocks were firm, resources were well and truly on the nose today as inflation continues to plague the market, or at least traders' thoughts. Copper and gold both eased back, with BHP down 2.6% and RIO falling 3.2%. The gold stocks were also under pressure, with NEM falling hard, as did EVN, down 5.5%. Lithium stocks also took a breather, and news that Chris Ellison had sold part of his holding in MIN also weighed on the sector, down 7.7%. The oil price continues to bubble higher, with no resolution, it seems, on the blockade in the Gulf. WGS did well, up 2.1%, and STO also had a blinder today, rising 2.7%. In corporate news, EOS shot the lights out as it prepares to take control of MARSS Defence Technology in the coming days, while also securing a $165 million order from an existing Middle Eastern customer. TWE added 1.9% after French billionaire Olivier Goudet lifted his stake in the company.Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets drop hard, Japan down 2.1%, HK off 1.6%, China down 0.8%, Kospi off 6%.US futures lower with Dow down 184, Nasdaq down 367. European futures opening around 1% lower.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

End of Day Report – Wednesday 13 May: ASX 200 drops 40 points | CBA drops 10.4%

Play Episode Listen Later May 13, 2026 14:23

The ASX 200 fell another 40 points to 8630 (0.5%) as the banks came under intense pressure following the budget last night. Adding to the bank woes was the update from CBA, which shocked the market as bad debts rose and growth was sadly lacking. CBA fell an astonishing 10.4%, with the other three banks also falling hard on changes to housing policy in the budget. The CBA fall accounted for around 85 index points. The Big Bank Basket fell hard to $260.67 (-7.1%) as the Big Resource Basket soared 2.2%, overtaking the banks. BHP led resource stocks higher, hitting another record high, up 2.9%, and claiming the mantle back from CBA as the 'big Australian'. RIO also had a good day on the back of near-record highs in copper, with FMG also putting on the ritz. Given the fall in CBA, the index elsewhere had a good day.The gold miners were in demand, although bullion was relatively stable. EVN up 0.6%, and NST up 1.0%. Lithium stocks had a small break today, with PLS easing back 0.9%, as did LTR, but rare earth stocks were back in demand, with LYC up a further 2.0%. Energy stocks were mixed, with WDS up 0.4% and STO having a good day, up 1.6%, but uranium stocks eased back, with PDN falling hard on results. Coal stocks firmed.Industrials generally rose post-budget, with the REITs doing well. GMG up 1.4%, WES finding a base, up 0.4%, and even retail stocks looking a little firmer, JBH up 2.0%. One of the big winners was in the gaming space, with ALL updating the market with some latest numbers and rallying strongly, up 13.3%. Technology stocks were also in demand today. XRO rose after announcing some AI integration progress, although WTC was still on the nose. Healthcare stocks were also slightly better today, with CSL up 0.2% and RMD having a good day for a change, up 2.0%. Financials ex the banking sector were also firm, with AMP up 1.7% and GQG having a very good day, up 4.8%.In corporate news, CSL signed a flu vaccine deal in South America, PRN also doing well up 8.4%, after being awarded a mining contract, and TPW fell again after guidance was cut. In other news, WTC fell slightly after DSV confirmed it will transition away from cargo-wise and on to an in-house solution. ALL was a huge winner on a first half beat.Asian markets better with Japan up 1.2%, China up 0.5% and HK down 0.2%; The Kospi back up 2.4%US futures modestly higher, Dow futures down 2, Nasdaq up 149. European futures opening slightly higher. US PPI tonight.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Todayhttp://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus TodayUse code MTPODCAST for 10% offhttp://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF PortfolioA professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing.http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About InvestingA short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips.http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—DisclaimerThis podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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5-12-26 Tech Rally Risk Is Rising | Before the Bell

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2026 4:13

Technology stocks continue to dominate the market as XLK and momentum-driven trades surge higher, but the rally is becoming increasingly narrow. Financials, Healthcare, Industrials, Energy, and Materials are lagging badly while Technology pulls the broader indexes higher. In today's pre-market update, we examine the growing divergence between Technology and the rest of the market, why overbought momentum conditions matter, and how concentrated rallies can create hidden risks for investors. We also discuss sector rotation, portfolio diversification, and why maintaining exposure to lagging sectors may help hedge against the next correction. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/rZ1lej68NvE --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TechnologyStocks #XLK #StockMarket #Investing #MarketRisk

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End of Day Report – Tuesday 12 May: ASX 200 drops 31 points | Industrials, banks, healthcare fall

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2026 13:24

The ASX 200 fell 31 points to 8671 (0.4%), as once again we saw selling in the banking sector weigh on the market. The Big Bank Basket fell to $280.74 (1.6%), with CBA down 1.4%, ANZ falling 2.1%, and MQG also coming off the boil, down 2.2%. Other financials also eased back, NWL dropped 3.0% and XYZ down 3.1%. Once again, we also saw REITs under pressure, with SCG off 1.1% and CHC down 1.2%. Industrials were also weaker across the board, led lower by WES down 1.8%, with two supermarkets falling heavily and the tech sector under renewed pressure, with WTC falling 5.9% and XRO falling 3.5%. The All-Tech Index fell yet again by 2.8%. In the healthcare space, a continuation of the falls, as brokers downgraded CSL and it fell another 2.2%, with RMD also now heading much lower, down 3.4%. Retail stocks also suffering, with JBH off 2.1% and HVN falling 2.5%.Resource stocks, though, had a good day, with BHP hitting record highs up 2.5%, with RIO leaping 3.1% and FMG also firming. Gold stocks were also doing well today on the back of a higher bullion price, with EVN up 2.8% and NEM also doing well, up 4.4%. S32 had a good day, and lithium stocks also powering ahead, with LTR roaring up 5.3%. Oil and gas stocks were slightly firmer, with coal and uranium stocks both under pressure, with PDN falling 3.9%.On the corporate front, DRO fell heavily after ASIC announced an investigation into Director Selling. HLO rose slightly after Peter Costello was appointed a director. IAG firmed 1.9% after it unveiled its refreshed ‘Ambition 2030' strategy.In economic news, business credit demand flattened in the first quarter. Business conditions fell for the fourth straight month in April, according to the NAB monthly business survey, and we did see the ANZ Roy Morgan survey as well of consumer sentiment hitting lows again. It dropped 3.1% to 64.1%, the fourth lowest reading since the series started in 1973.Asian markets saw losses today; Japan up 0.5% on the Nikkei, HK flat%, and China down 0.3%. Kospi fell 3.2%US futures headed lower. Dow down 10, Nasdaq down 130. 10-year yields drifted to 4.99%. European markets are set to open lower. US CPI tonight.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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Chuck Etzweiler on AI, Industrials, and the Next Phase of the Bull Market

Play Episode Listen Later May 11, 2026 6:03

Chuck Etzweiler argues the current bull market still has room to run, driven by long‑term innovation across AI, robotics, and blockchain. He highlights broadening strength beyond tech into industrials and materials, and says volatility remains a normal part of a multi‑year structural uptrend.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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End of Day Report – Monday 11 May: ASX 200 falls 43 to 8702 | CSL drops 16% on write downs

Play Episode Listen Later May 11, 2026 11:28

The ASX 200 dropped 43 points to 8702 (0.5%) as CSL shocked investors again, with a huge write-off and a downgrade to guidance. CSL accounted for most of the loss today. Elsewhere, banks recovered some from earlier large losses, CBA down 1.1% and ANZ, XD down 2.4%. The Big Bank Basket fell to $285.25 (-1.1%) ANZ XD. MQG flat, well off session lows. Other financials found their feet, NWL up 1.1%, and IFT pushing another 3.7% ahead. REITS eased back except GMG, which was up 2.1%. Industrials mixed, BXB fell 1.4%, QAN dropped 1.8% as oil rose in Asian trade, ALL down 1.0%, and retailers still struggling somewhat. WOW and COL ease, but healthcare was shaken by CSL dropping 16.0% with SIG also slipping slightly. Tech was flat as we await the Xi/Trump meeting and the economic data this week.Resources were mostly better, BHP up 0.7% and RIO doing well, up another % with gold miners easing on bullion, NST down 1.9% and GGP off 2.6%. Lithium and rare earths rose higher ahead of the summit, WDS rose 1.5%, and uranium stocks recovered from early losses. PDN up 5.8% and DYL rising 4.6%.In corporate news, ING upgraded enough to not fall foul of investors, CSL was a bloodbath, and OML got another NBIO from PE.Nothing today locally on the economic front. Chinese CPI came in higher than expected.Asian markets saw losses today; Japan slipped 0.4% on the Nikkei, HK down 0.2%, and China up 1.4%. Kospi up 4% again.US futures are mixed. Dow down 88, Nasdaq down 5. 10-year yields drifted to 4.99%. European markets are set to open slightly higher.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Friday 8 May: ASX 200 falls 1.5% as banks smacked | Up 14 points for the week

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2026 10:32

The ASX 200 we dropped 134 points to 8744 (-1.5%) today as the banking sector came under extreme pressure. We saw CBA down 1.9%, WBC down 4.8% ex-dividend today and the Big Bank Basket falling to $288.50 (-2.3%). Other financials also under pressure today, with the insurers falling as QBE updated the market on their gross written premium expectations and MQG suffering after reporting their second-biggest profit ever, falling 1.1%. Other financials also in trouble today included GQG falling 4.1% and the ASX down 3.2% too, with ZIP giving up some of its gains this week. REITs also under pressure with GMG down 1.9% and SCG down 2.4%. Industrials generally were weaker today, with WES continuing to fall as well, down 2.0% with ALL slipping lower too. Healthcare once again eased back, with CSL falling again and RMD slipping 0.9%. Both COL and WOW slipped today, as well as utilities, where we had ORG down 2.3% and APA down 2.0%.Resources generally were somewhat better than their banking cousins, with BHP down only 1.0%, RIO off 0.8%, and the gold miners easing back, but generally a little mixed, and we had NST down 2.5%. Lithium stocks slipped, and we saw energy stocks as well under some pressure, with WDS down 1.4% and the coal stocks easing back together with uranium stocks.In corporate news today, REA rose 1.4% despite lowering its full-year cost growth guidance. QBE reaffirmed its guidance, and TAH continued to fall on analyst downgrades following the investigation launched by AUSTRAC. We also had NWS results today with a stronger-than-expected third quarter.Nothing on the economic front as we await US NFP numbers for April. Locally, Westpac pushed out its next RBA rate rise to August. UK Council elections see 'Reform' doing well.Asian markets saw losses today; Japan slipped 0.4% on the Nikkei, HK down 1.1% and China down 0.5%.US futures slightly higher. Dow up 85, Nasdaq up 137. European markets set to fall around 0.7%.—Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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Nasdaq Hits Records: Jake Dollarhide on Intel, AI Industrials, and the Fed

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2026 6:25

Market resilience remains front and center as the Nasdaq pushes to new records despite geopolitical tension and shifting rate expectations. Jake Dollarhide of Longbow Asset Management discusses Intel's (INTC) sharp rally tied to leadership changes and its role in reshoring chip supply alongside Samsung and TSMC (TSM), while noting how the AI trade is expanding into industrials and utilities like Caterpillar (CAT) and Carrier (CARR). He also weighs a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve as inflation and labor trends keep “higher‑for‑longer” firmly in play.======== Schwab Network ========Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DEmpowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Why Stocks Keep Rallying

ai growth energy artificial intelligence stock big tech utilities value investing disclosures industrials gimme some truth

Play Episode Listen Later May 4, 2026 4:53

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the factors behind stock gains across sectors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why earnings remain the most important variable for equity markets.It's Monday, May 4th at 2pm in New York. So, let's get after it.The more I think about what's been driving this market, and the more time I spend with the data, the more I keep coming back to the same conclusion: it's earnings. Not the headlines, not even the Fed. Earnings are doing the heavy lifting right now.When I look at this reporting season, what stands out isn't just resilience, it's strength that's broader than most people appreciate. The typical company in the S&P 500 is growing earnings at about 16 percent, and the median earnings surprise is running around 6 percent. That's the strongest we've seen in four years.What's really interesting to me is that this strength is no longer confined to just the biggest tech names. Yes, hyper scalers and semiconductors are still playing a leading role, but the story is expanding. We're seeing earnings revisions move higher across Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclicals, in particular. That kind of breadth tells me this isn't just a narrow leadership story; it's something more sustainable.At the same time, many investors are focused on the geopolitical backdrop, particularly the Iran conflict and what it means for oil, inflation, and supply chains. To be fair, companies are feeling some of that pressure. When you listen to earnings calls, you hear about rising freight costs, tighter supply chains, and higher input prices across industries like chemicals and machinery.But here's the nuance: those impacts are uneven. They're not hitting the entire market in the same way. In fact, at the index level, they're being offset. Energy has become a positive contributor to earnings growth, and the higher-end consumer remains relatively strong. Even with higher fuel costs, we're not seeing a meaningful pullback in overall consumption – at least not yet. That tells me that we're not dealing with a classic demand shock. We're dealing with a redistribution of pressure, and companies are adapting. In many cases, they're passing through higher costs. Revenue surprises are running above historical norms, which suggests pricing power is improving.Now, of course, earnings aren't the only piece of the puzzle. Policy still matters, and the shift in rate expectations this year has been meaningful. The Fed has clearly become more concerned about inflation, and the market has repriced expectations to fewer cuts, and maybe even a higher probability of hikes. That repricing is a big reason why valuations corrected so sharply over the past six months.It's notable that even with that headwind, equities have managed to stabilize, thanks to earnings. When earnings are growing at an above-trend pace, equities can deliver solid returns regardless of whether the Fed is cutting or not.That said, I do think that there's one area of risk that deserves further attention, and that's liquidity. We've seen periods of funding stress over the past six months, and those moments have coincided with pressure on valuations. The Fed and the Treasury have stepped in at times to stabilize these conditions, helping to reduce bond volatility and support equity multiples.Bottom line, we have already had a meaningful correction in valuations this year with price earnings multiples falling 18 percent from their peak last fall. That adjustment occurred as the market digested the many risks that we have been highlighting. Meanwhile, earnings are not only holding up, they're accelerating and broadening across sectors. The risks that we've all all focused on – geopolitics, oil, supply chains – are real. But they're being absorbed at the company level. As a result, the price declines were much more modest than the compression in valuations. Meanwhile, monetary policy is providing some headwinds, but it's not overwhelming the earnings story. Equity markets move on two things: earnings and liquidity. Right now, earnings are more than offsetting the lingering liquidity concerns. In short, earnings growth is greater than the valuation reset. This is classic bull market behavior and as long as that continues, I think the U.S. equity market will grind higher for the rest of the year with intermittent bouts of volatility. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

AI and Value Investing: Is the Growth Stock Era Over?

Gimme Some Truth

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 27, 2026 22:34

In this episode of Gimme Some Truth, we explore the massive shift happening in the markets. For over a decade, Growth stocks have dominated, but Artificial Intelligence might be the very catalyst that brings Value Investing back to the forefront.We break down the "AI Build-out" and why sectors typically labeled as "Value"—like Energy, Utilities, and Industrials—are becoming the backbone of the AI revolution. If you are worried about S&P 500 concentration risk and being too heavy in Big Tech, this episode is a must-watch.What we cover in this episode:- The Growth vs. Value Trade: Why the tide is turning after 15 years.- AI Disruption: How AI is actually challenging the valuation of traditional growth companies.- Concentration Risk: The dangers of a tech-heavy portfolio in today's market.- The AI Infrastructure Play: Which value sectors stand to gain the most from the AI build-out.- Market History: Lessons from past bubbles (2000, 2008) and how they apply to the AI boom.Don't let recency bias dictate your strategy. We discuss why now is the time to review your portfolio and ensure you aren't over-exposed to a single trade.

Retail Resilience Drives Housing Optimism as Industrials and AAPL Offer Stability

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 21, 2026 6:59

Chris Ward says the U.S. consumer remains resilient, with retail sales posting their strongest gain in years as employment stays firm. He sees easing mortgage rates setting the stage for a recovery in housing, while industrial stocks offer a steady hedge amid reshoring efforts and global defense rebuilding. Ward also weighs whether defensive, low‑volatility sectors, including Apple (AAPL), can continue to cushion portfolios against inflation and rate uncertainty.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Bobrinskoy: Overweight Tech Masks Value in Small Caps and Industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2026 8:15

Charles Bobrinskoy says the S&P 500's heavy tech concentration is giving investors a false sense of diversification, creating an opportunity in overlooked small-cap value stocks. He favors housing-exposed names MHK and REZI, consumer plays SJM and PHIN, MOS as an agriculture hedge, and suggests short-duration fixed income as inflation risks remain elevated.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Mounting Evidence of a Market Rebound

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 13, 2026 5:11

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson shares his perspective on why investors should position for a stock market recovery despite ongoing uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why equity investors – sometimes – need to look away from the headlines.It's Monday, April 13th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Today I want to talk about something I think a lot of investors are struggling with right now – and that's timing. When I talk to people, markets still feel fragile to most. There's uncertainty around geopolitics, central banks, oil… You name it. But when I look at what the market is actually doing; not what it feels like, but what it's telling us – I come away with a very different conclusion. The market is further along than most people think in this correction.In fact, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen the S&P 500 bounce meaningfully. Almost 7 percent from the lows after holding that critical 6300 to 6500 range that we've been focused on. To me, that's not random. That's the market carving out a low ahead of an all-clear signal. And stepping back, my broader view hasn't changed.I still think we're in a new bull market that began last April, coming out of that rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. This correction is part of that cycle; not the end of it. And importantly, a lot of the heavy lifting has already been done.Valuations have compressed significantly. Forward price/earnings multiples have fallen about 18 percent from top to bottom. And beneath the surface, more than half of stocks are down 20 percent or more. That's a market that has already discounted a lot of risk – whether it's the war, private credit concerns, or AI disruption.At the same time, earnings are moving in the opposite direction. Trailing earnings growth is running around 15 percent, and forward earnings growth is up over 20 percent. That combination of falling multiples and rising earnings is a classic bull market correction behavior. Not a bear market. And that's why I think many are misreading this environment.One area where I think that's especially clear is energy. If you look at the price action, energy stocks appear to have already peaked in relative terms. That's often a signal that the underlying commodity – in this case oil – may also be peaking. Or at least it's stabilizing.Which brings me to what I think is really driving volatility now: rates.We're back in a regime where stocks and yields are negatively correlated. That means higher rates are a headwind for equities again, and the recent hawkish tone from central banks that's focused on inflation is creating tighter financial conditions. In my view, that's the final hurdle. Not the war. Not oil. But monetary policy. And here's the interesting part. Tightening financial conditions are also what ultimately force central banks to pivot. So the very thing creating anxiety today may be what sets up relief tomorrow.Now, if we're in the later stages of this correction, the next question is positioning. For me, it's still about a barbell. On one side, I like cyclicals like Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary – where the earnings remain strong and valuations have reset. On the other side is quality growth. In particularly the hyperscalers; where sentiment has been washed out, but fundamentals remain intact. That combination has worked well off the lows so far, and I think it continues to make sense here.When I zoom out even further, there's a bigger theme developing as well. And that's the rebalancing of the economy, a core theme we discussed in our 2026 outlook back in November. We're starting to see hard evidence that growth is shifting, from the public to the private economy. Private payrolls are strengthening, capital investment is picking up, and companies are behaving as if the current uncertainty is temporary – not structural. This is the rolling recovery on track.At the same time, AI is acting more as a margin tailwind than a disruption, at least in the near term. And this supports operating leverage across many industries. All of that reinforces my view that the recovery is real. And still has room to run.So when I put it all together, here's where I land:The market has already discounted a lot of bad news. It's adjusted valuations, reset positioning, and absorbed market risks. What risk remains is policy, and how long rates and liquidity stay restrictive. But markets don't wait for clarity on that. They move ahead of it.So, here's my advice. Take advantage of any further worries and put capital to work before it's obvious. Because the market waits for no one.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

U.S.-Iran Truce: What's Next?

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2026 10:09

While a tentative ceasefire in the Middle East holds, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a sticking point in diplomatic efforts. Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore walk through some scenarios that could play out.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the U.S.-Iran ceasefire's key uncertainties, consequences and what we're watching for next. It's Wednesday, April 8th at 11am in New York. Okay. Let's start with the current situation. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to a provisional ceasefire, two weeks tied to follow on talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets so far, treating this as a deescalation but not a clear resolution… Ariana Salvatore: That's right. And I think the key framing here is this is a pause, not a peace deal. And in the near term, I would not assume things are suddenly stable. We still have some key uncertainties around how the ceasefire deal is going to be implemented, as well as how negotiations will begin to take shape. Michael Zezas: Right. And that's important. It seems like Iran's reported 10-point plan for the ceasefire includes some elements that might be non-starters for the U.S., some things around sanctions and unfreezing of assets. And so, there's lots of ways that there could be some re-escalation in the near term. Ariana Salvatore: Okay. So that's the near term – fragile, noisy, and still pretty headline driven. But let's try to think about this a little bit further out. How are we thinking about the medium term? Michael Zezas: Yeah. So, thinking a little bit further out, it seems to us that ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening should continue to progress because the incentives are widely shared across the key actors involved. So, the U.S.'s incentive to effectively be done with the conflict is pretty well understood. There's domestic political incentives and economic incentives. There's ways to potentially explain away some of the compromises the U.S. might have to make around the Strait of Hormuz, around sanctions. And maybe point to some incentives to work with partners in the region over time to diminish the importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a choke point. Iran's incentive is pretty clear – to preserve its regime. And another actor here, which appears to be increasingly important, is China, which has reportedly been involved in expressing its preference for deescalation. And that's pretty important because China has a lot of leverage on Iran given its economic relationship with the country. Ariana Salvatore: So, starting with these negotiations, it seems like, as you mentioned before, there's still a lot of gaps between what the U.S. side and what the Iranian side is asking for. But let's put that in the context of the ceasefire. Even if it were to hold – that doesn't necessarily translate to stability, right? Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think that's right. So, if Iran were to start rebuilding its military assets, in particular its nuclear program, at some point in the future, we'd probably come back to a similar point where Israel and the United States might find their ability to project that power to be intolerable. And what we don't know right now is if any type of deal is possible that can mitigate those very long-term concerns. So, even if commodities start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz at a rate that is similar to what it was before the conflict started, it seems like there will be this overhang. Of concern that that could shut down at any moment's notice, if the U.S. and Israel and other actors in the area become concerned again with Iran's power. Ariana Salvatore: So, that overhang you're talking about actually does have some real economic impacts. One way to frame this is kind of like a lingering tax on the global system. We see that through the oil market, right? So, we think of this as a structural risk premium on oil. Our strategist, Martijn Rats, thinks that even in a deescalation scenario, you're not getting back to that world of $65-$70 oil. This Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a critical choke point that doesn't necessarily go away overnight. And maybe over time you could see some mitigation, construction of new pipelines, alternative routes, et cetera. But in the interim, that risk premium feeds through to energy prices, shipping costs, and ultimately food and broader supply chains, which is something that Chetan Ahya has been flagging in Asia for quite some time. Michael Zezas: I think that's right. And so, in highlighting that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point for the global economy and for supply chains generally, it's a reminder of a problem that's been on display for the last 10 years.Just that there are supply chain choke points all over the place when you start thinking about the security needs of the U.S. and other actors throughout the globe. And so, it underscores this dynamic where multinationals are going to have to rethink – and are already starting to rethink – their supply chains. And whether or not they need to build in what our investment bankers have been calling an anti-fragile supply chain strategy. So, we can't just solve for the cheapest cost of goods and cheapest transit. You have to wire up your supply chains in a way that can survive geopolitical conflicts. And while there's some extra embedded costs that comes along with that, well, they're more reliable, so it's more efficient over the long run. Of course, it costs a lot of money to rewire your supply chains, and so that's tied into this opportunity around capital expenditures going into proving this out. And so, investors should be aware that there are plenty of sectors which will have to participate in effectively being part of rebuilding those supply chains. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, so the way we're framing this is, this is another data point kind of in that trend toward a multipolar world. We've seen certain geopolitical events accelerate that transition. Russia-Ukraine, for example, the pandemic; and this is just sort of another example in that same direction. And some of the sectors that we think are structural beneficiaries here: obviously defense, in particular in Europe, and industrials here in the U.S. Chris Snyder's been doing a lot of work on reshoring, how we're seeing that pick up – and we think that probably continues. But as we're speaking about the U.S. and what this could mean, let's bring this back to the AI angle. Because I think that's where this all really connects in maybe a less obvious way. Near term, we're thinking about the financing implications here as pretty modest. Unless we get a major re-escalation or a rupture of the ceasefire, it shouldn't really change capital availability in a meaningful way. But this could affect where capacity gets built. Michael Zezas: Yeah, that's right. And over the past year, there's been a lot of news about the U.S. engaging in the Middle East with partners to build AI capacity via data center capacity – because there's also plenty of energy in the area to fuel those data centers. But those data centers as an infrastructure asset, and an economically valuable one at that, potentially become military targets when they're built. So, there is a consideration here after this conflict about whether or not those things can be built or be relied upon. And it is a critical part of the U.S.' strategy to build compute capacity in the aggregate with allies. And increasingly they've been looking to the Middle East as allies in an AI build out. Ariana Salvatore: So, if that becomes more challenging and you see persistent instability, for example, in the Middle East, you're probably going to see more demand push toward domestic U.S. data centers. And something that we've been highlighting has been not only the kind of pressures on the capital side. But also, you know, the bottlenecks that are very real – like power, permitting, labor, equipment and political resistance, which we've talked about on this podcast as well. We're seeing a lot of constraints. So, it's not really feasible that the U.S. is going to be able to fully substitute that Middle East capacity. Michael Zezas: So, I think the read through here is that the U.S. is still on track to build the compute capacity that it needs. The CapEx that's going into that – that is helping the U.S. economy grow this year – is still very much intact. It raises some potential future questions about how quickly the U.S. can build out, but it's unclear if that matters in the near term to (a) both the build out and (b) the productivity that can come from the current build out. Ariana Salvatore: And I think a really important consequence of what you're describing has to do with the U.S. China dynamics. So, if the U.S. is, for example, seen as a less reliable security guarantor, then you may see some of the Gulf countries potentially deepen their economic alignment with China at the margin. And that's something that could be really relevant for the upcoming U.S.-China Summit next month. Remember that was postponed from – initially it was towards the end of March. Now it seems to be around the middle of May. So, that's a really important catalyst that we're keeping an eye on for now. That's a little bit further out.Near term, of course, we'll be watching things like military buildup in the region. Any indications on how exactly the Strait of Hormuz will be managed from here. And how these negotiations progress over the next two weeks. As far as the equity market is concerned, it appears that the worst of this risk is behind us from a rate of change perspective. So, our strategists think you should start to see leadership emerge from the sectors that were doing well into this conflict, namely cyclicals like Financials and Industrials leading the way from here. Michael Zezas: Well Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Riding the Final Innings of the Market Correction

The Industrial Talk Podcast with Scott MacKenzie

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 6, 2026 5:05

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson talks about risks in this late stage of the equity market pullback, how investors should position and what could come next.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing what investors should be doing as we enter the final innings of this equity market correction.It's Monday, April 6th at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it.For the past several months, my view has been very consistent. In short, I continue to believe we're in a bull market that began last April, coming out of what I've described as a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. That recovery remains intact despite recent threats from AI disruption, private credit and a new war in Iran while the war between Russia and Ukraine persists.Markets have not been complacent with stocks correcting since last fall. In fact, it's well advanced with the S&P 500's forward price earnings multiple declining by 18 percent, a rare move outside of a recession or a Fed tightening cycle – neither of which is likely in my view.Meanwhile, earnings growth isn't rolling over. Instead, it's accelerating to multi-year highs and that's a key difference versus past periods when oil shocks led to a recession. And, in the absence of that outcome, I see a market that's discounted a lot of bad news.Beneath the surface, the damage has been even more significant with over half of stocks down at least 20 percent from their highs, and many down 30-40 percent. Resets of this scale usually occur near the end of corrections, not the beginning.The S&P 500 bounced last week off the 6300 to 6500 range of support that I have been highlighting. Could we re-test those levels? Sure – especially if rates push higher or geopolitical risks escalate further. However, I don't see a meaningful breakdown.If anything, what's still missing – and what I'd actually like to see – is a bit more de-risking in crowded trades like semiconductors and memory stocks, in particular. That kind of repositioning reset is often required to seal a durable bottom.So, if we are in the later innings, the next question is: where do you want to be? For me, it's about balance and I think the right approach is a barbell of cyclicals, and quality growth.On the cyclical side, I like Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials. These are the areas where earnings momentum remains strong and valuations have come down meaningfully. It's also what was leading prior to the start of the Iran conflict and reflects our core view that we are still in the early stages of a recovery from the rolling recession. Last week's jobs report supports that view with private payrolls increasing by [$]186 000, one of the largest rises in three years. On the growth side, I'm focused on the hyperscalers as a very good risk reward at this point. These companies are trading at roughly the same multiple as defensive sectors like Staples, but with more than three times the earnings growth. Meanwhile the sentiment and positioning is as bad as it's been since 2022's bear market when these companies were showing negative earnings growth. So, what could go wrong? The main risk to equities is still rates and central bank policy, not the war.We know this because we just flipped back into a regime where stocks and yields are negatively correlated where higher rates put pressure on valuations. 4.5 percent on a 10-year Treasury bond continues to be a key threshold where stock valuations are likely to get worse before they rebound durably. Furthermore, bond volatility and Fed expectations are driving tighter financial conditions—and that's been the real source of market stress lately.But here's the irony: that tightening is also what ultimately sets up a more dovish pivot from the Fed and other central banks. If financial conditions tighten too much, the Fed has the flexibility to respond—and we have plenty of evidence that there's willingness to do that over the past several years.Bottom line? The market has already done a lot of the hard work. It has priced in geopolitical risk, private credit concerns and even negative side effects from AI, which is ultimately a productivity enhancing technology.What we're dealing with now is the final hurdle – policy, rates levels and volatility. And once we get through that, I think the path forward becomes a lot clearer.But remember, markets don't wait for certainty – they move ahead of it. You should, too.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Bridget Youngs with Terminus Industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 26, 2026 21:52 Transcription Available

Industrial Talk is onsite at PowerGen and talking to Bridget Youngs, Founder at Terminus Industrials about "Disrupting the transformer manufacturing market". Bridget Youngs, founder of Terminus, discussed her company's innovative approach to transformer manufacturing. Terminus aims to reduce production time from months to under two weeks by automating processes and using AI and robotics. They focus on 138-34.5 kV transformers, a critical need in the ERCOT territory. Bridget highlighted the challenges of standardizing equipment across 1,700 utilities and the inefficiencies in current manufacturing. Terminus plans to launch products in Q3 2027, leveraging a team with expertise from companies like GE and Tesla to streamline design and manufacturing. Outline Introduction and Welcome to Industrial Talk Scott introduces the episode of Industrial Talk, sponsored by the Propane Education and Research Council, focusing on safety, training, and innovative propane power technology.Scott thanks listeners for joining the top industrial podcast, celebrating industry professionals who solve problems daily.The podcast is broadcasting live from Power Gen in San Antonio, focusing on asset management and power generation. Introduction of Bridget Youngs Scott introduces Bridget Youngs, who is in the "hot seat" to discuss transformers.Bridget thanks Scott for having her and mentions the presence of many interested buyers and sellers at the event.Bridget shares her background in power development, including 10 years in oil and gas, renewables, and working for the federal government.She explains her decision to start Terminus, a company manufacturing large power transformers. Challenges and Opportunities in Transformer Manufacturing Bridget discusses the long lead times for interconnection with utilities, which can take 2 to 5 years.She highlights the shift in the longest lead time item from bureaucratic processes to equipment availability, particularly power transformers.Bridget explains her work on automating shipbuilding and how similar principles can be applied to power transformers.Terminus is focused on retooling and engineering equipment to quickly manufacture dynamic assets, reducing labor costs and production time. Specifics of Terminus' Transformer Manufacturing Bridget details the size range of transformers Terminus is focusing on, starting with 138 to 34.5 KV.She explains the demand for these transformers in the ERCOT territory, which has the longest 138 KV line.Bridget discusses the challenges of standardizing transmission voltage and the variations among different utility territories.She emphasizes the need for engineering order due to the different standards and safety measures required for equipment. Manufacturing Process and Innovations Bridget outlines the five major steps in transformer manufacturing: cutting and stacking cores, winding coils, drying in an autoclave, assembling the tank, and testing.She describes Terminus' approach to setting up a manufacturing line that can handle different sizes of transformers efficiently.Bridget highlights the team's mix of experienced engineers and robotics experts from companies like Tesla and John Deere.She discusses the importance of iterating quickly and carefully to avoid catastrophic failures in the deployed assets. Future Plans and Market Impact Bridget mentions that Terminus plans to start rolling out products in Q3 2027, primarily focusing on 138 to 34.5 KV transformers.She explains the design process, which involves pairing experienced engineers with software engineers to streamline the design and manufacturing process.Bridget emphasizes the importance of automation in reducing downtime and costs, despite higher labor and material costs in the US.She highlights the potential for delivering cheaper, safer, and more reliable assets to users on the grid and developers. Conclusion and Call to Action Scott praises Bridget's innovative approach to transformer manufacturing and the potential impact on the market.Bridget provides contact information for Terminus, encouraging listeners to reach out on LinkedIn or through the company's website.Scott encourages listeners to connect with Bridget and other problem solvers at events like Power Gen.The podcast concludes with a call to be bold, brave, and disruptive in the industry, inspired by Bridget's story. If interested in being on the Industrial Talk show, simply contact us and let's have a quick conversation. Finally, get your exclusive free access to the Industrial Academy and a series on “Why You Need To Podcast” for Greater Success in 2026. All links designed for keeping you current in this rapidly changing Industrial Market. Learn! Grow! Enjoy! BRIDGET YOUNGS' CONTACT INFORMATION: Personal LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bridget-youngs/ Company LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/terminusindustrials/ Company Website: https://www.terminusindustrials.com/ PODCAST VIDEO: https://youtu.be/eMBfz5peKU0 THE STRATEGIC REASON "WHY YOU NEED TO PODCAST": OTHER GREAT INDUSTRIAL RESOURCES: NEOM: https://www.neom.com/en-us Hexagon: https://hexagon.com/ Arduino: https://www.arduino.cc/ Fictiv: https://www.fictiv.com/ Hitachi Vantara: https://www.hitachivantara.com/en-us/home.html Industrial Marketing Solutions: https://industrialtalk.com/industrial-marketing/ Industrial Academy: https://industrialtalk.com/industrial-academy/ Industrial Dojo: https://industrialtalk.com/industrial_dojo/ We the 15: https://www.wethe15.org/ YOUR INDUSTRIAL DIGITAL TOOLBOX: LifterLMS: Get One Month Free for $1 – https://lifterlms.com/ Active Campaign: Active Campaign Link Social Jukebox: https://www.socialjukebox.com/ Industrial Academy (One Month Free Access And One Free License For Future Industrial Leader): Business Beatitude the Book Do you desire a more joy-filled, deeply-enduring sense of accomplishment and success? 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504. American Dynamism: The Future of U.S. Industrials, Backing Companies with Major Production Components, Manufacturing Sovereignty, and Why Space Dominance is Critical (David Ulevitch)

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2026 44:36

David Ulevitch of Andreessen Horowitz joins Nick to discuss American Dynamism: The Future of U.S. Industrials, Backing Companies with Major Production Components, Manufacturing Sovereignty, and Why Space Dominance is Critical. In this episode we cover: Challenges in Venture Capital and Investment Philosophy Handling Startups and Market Pivots Navigating Dual-Use Startups Government Sales and Market Education Long-Term Revenue and Production Challenges American Dynamism Practice and Investment Thesis Supply Chain and Vertical Integration Policy Advocacy and Government Affairs Future of American Dynamism and Energy Investments Guest Links: David's LinkedIn David's X a16z's LinkedIn a16z's Website The host of The Full Ratchet is Nick Moran of New Stack Ventures, a venture capital firm committed to investing in founders outside of the Bay Area. We're proud to partner with Ramp, the modern finance automation platform. Book a demo and get $150—no strings attached. Want to keep up to date with The Full Ratchet? Follow us on social. You can learn more about New Stack Ventures by visiting our LinkedIn and Twitter.

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Opportunities in a Volatile Market: Software, Health Care, Industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2026 9:04

Gene Goldman sees opportunities in software, which he thinks is oversold, though he is neutral towards technology overall. Instead, he likes healthcare and industrials and is making a short-term energy play. Within those, he likes biotech and managed care. He thinks the S&P 500 will end the year higher, but warns of a potential downturn beforehand. This week, he's watching central bank meetings, especially the Fed's meeting, where it will release a new dot plot. He's underweight international equities.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Why Stocks Keep Rising Despite AI Anxiety

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 24, 2026 4:39

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he still believes in a growth cycle for equity markets, even as investors show growing concerns around AI.Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns around AI disruption. It's Tuesday, February 24th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week you could feel it, that anxious undercurrent in the market. The headlines were noisy, volatility ticked higher, and AI disruption, once again, dominated investor conversations. But beneath the surface level unease something important happened. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index pushed to a new relative high, keeping our broadening thesis alive and well. On one hand, investors are worried about AI driven disruption, CapEx intensity, and potential labor force reductions. On the other hand, capital is still flowing into formerly lagging areas of the market, just as the median stock is seeing its strongest earnings growth in four years. Let's unpack this. First, there's concern AI will lead to job losses. But even if that's the case, there's typically a phase-in period. Companies don't just eliminate labor overnight. Importantly, before these productivity gains are fully realized, we need broad enterprise adoption. That means building out the agentic application layer, integrating AI into workflows, retraining systems and processes. That takes time, and it is still early days in that regard. Second, what we're seeing now is typical of a major investment cycle. Volatility increases as markets challenge the pace of unbridled spending. Dispersion increases as investors debate winners and losers. Leadership rotates, sometimes sharply. There's also something different this time compared to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Today we're in an early cycle earnings backdrop. We've just emerged from what was effectively a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. So, as capital rotates out of the perceived structural losers, it's not just chasing long-term AI beneficiaries, it's also finding classic cyclical winners. On the losing side is long duration services-oriented sectors, particularly software. These areas are more sensitive to uncertainty around longer term cash flows. This area also has a large overhang of private capital deployed over the last 10 to 15 years. There are other forces at play too. Small cap growth, arguably the longest duration segment of the market, began breaking down in late January around the time Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed chair. While major indices barely reacted, more speculative areas may be responding to expectations of tighter liquidity given Warsh's, reputation as a balance sheet hawk. Finally, equity markets are typically more volatile when new Fed chairs assume office. Bottom line, our broader thesis of an early cycle rolling recovery remains intact. Market internals are supportive even if index level action feels choppy. That said, near term volatility is likely to persist as we enter a weaker seasonal window for retail demand, while liquidity remains ample, but far from abundant. With this backdrop, a quality cyclical barbell with healthcare makes sense. In small caps, the higher quality S&P 600 looks more attractive than the Russell 2000. And any short-term volatility could present opportunities to add exposure in preferred cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Industrials, and Financials. Of course, risks remain. AI adoption could accelerate faster than expected, pressuring labor markets more abruptly. Pricing power could erode as efficiency spread, and policy makers could react in ways that slow the CapEx cycle while crowded momentum positioning remains vulnerable. Nevertheless, the signal from the internals is clear. Beneath the volatility this looks less like a market rolling over, and more like one that is confirming an early cycle economic expansion. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

2-23-26 Market Rotation Warning - Breadth at 50-Year Extreme | Before the Bell

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2026 3:36

Markets bounced Friday, recovering to close slightly above the 20-day moving average, but the story remains internal rotation—not a clean, broad-based trend. Energy and mega-caps carried the tape into the close, while this morning the leadership is shifting again, with Healthcare acting better (Eli Lilly notably higher) and much of the rest of the market looking flat. February is doing what it often does—acting like one of the weaker seasonal months—and the S&P 500 is up only about 1.2% year-to-date. Under the surface, sector bifurcation is pronounced: Energy, Industrials, and Basic Materials have posted outsized gains, while Technology, Financials, and Healthcare have lagged. That divergence is a reminder that "index level" calm can mask very real crosscurrents in risk. Breadth is also sending a message. The equal-weighted index continues to outperform, and roughly 65% of S&P 500 constituents are outperforming the index so far this year—an extreme not seen in decades. Strong participation isn't inherently bearish, but when performance becomes that broadly stretched, the probability of mean reversion and sharp reversals tends to rise. Bottom line: respect the rotation, don't chase what's extended, and stay disciplined on risk controls. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/Dule_eZoSBY --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketBreadth #SectorRotation #RiskManagement

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2-17-26 100-DMA Test - Momentum Fades, Rotation Shifts | Before the Bell

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 17, 2026 3:41

Markets held the 100-DMA on Friday, but that support is in focus again today. The bigger issue is a negative divergence: price has risen while momentum and relative strength have faded. If the 100-DMA breaks, the next key level is the 200-DMA near 6,650—so stay disciplined on allocations, concentration, and risk. Breadth is improving: the gap between market-cap and equal-weight has narrowed, and equal-weight has led over the past six months. Energy, Utilities, Industrials, and Materials have been driving gains, but several are getting extended—take profits and rebalance where needed. Also watch Technology: it's oversold, and even a modest rebound could quickly shift leadership back toward mega-cap performance. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/Qkkl5m8hY7w --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketUpdate #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketRotation

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2-12-26 Dollar Rally Risk - Overbought Markets | Before the Bell

Financial Sense(R) Newshour

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 12, 2026 7:13

Is the U.S. Dollar setting up for a deeper rally—and what does that mean for markets that have been riding the "weak dollar" trade? Lance Roberts walks through a long-term, monthly chart perspective: when major indexes stretch 2+ standard deviations above long-term means, the odds of a meaningful mean reversion rise. Right now, the S&P 500 is extended, the equal-weight S&P is even more stretched, and several "Dollar-sensitive" areas look extremely overbought—including Basic Materials, Industrials, and Transports. The same setup shows up in international stocks and emerging markets, where foreign flows often chase currency differentials. If the Dollar turns higher from an oversold condition and triggers a buy signal, those rotations can reverse fast. We also cover why gold and silver—classic Dollar trades—can stay extended longer than expected, but rarely hold at 3–4 standard deviations for very long. Bottom line: overbought doesn't mean "crash tomorrow," but it does mean it's time to think about taking profits, rebalancing, and reducing risk before the mean reversion shows up. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/ioOGa5YHzDI --- Articles mentioned in this report: "BLS Labor Report Defies Consensus" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bls-labor-report-defies-consensus/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

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"February 14 Is Valentine's Day For Some, It's 13F Day For Us" Featuring Bill Anderson, Evercore

C.O.B. Tuesday

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2026 40:39

Today we had the exciting opportunity to host Bill Anderson, Senior Managing Director at Evercore and Global Head of the firm's Activism/Raid Defense team and Strategic M&A Advisory practice. Bill is a pioneer in activism defense and has advised more than 500 companies facing activists or strategic raids, including many of the largest proxy fights and defense situations of the past two decades. Prior to joining Evercore in 2016, Bill spent more than 15 years at Goldman Sachs as an M&A partner and leader of its defense team. Earlier in his career, he was an M&A attorney at Simpson Thatcher & Bartlett, clerked on the Second Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals, worked as a CPA at Coopers & Lybrand, and served as a Captain in the U.S. Army Reserves. It was our pleasure to hear Bill's perspectives on the latest M&A activity, activism and hostile preparedness, board composition and alignment, and the evolving dynamics between companies, shareholders, and capital markets. In our conversation, we explore Bill's career path from classic M&A work into defense and special committees as markets changed, and how activism became a major driver of M&A. Bill shares his top takeaways from 2025 activity, noting the wide range of deal types and attributing the acceleration in deal flow to greater antitrust optimism, liquid financing, and strong buyer stock performance. We discuss why activism has become a core risk-management issue for public companies, how activists can build positions via derivatives and broker-dealer exposure with limited disclosure (and why 13F filings can be an important early-warning signal), and how shareholder bases have evolved with index funds now a dominant ownership block alongside the continued influence of ISS and Glass Lewis. We cover the difficulty of mobilizing retail votes and related regulatory/state-law considerations, the deal approval environment under Trump versus Biden (including CFIUS as a wildcard), why companies are more careful describing synergies, the impact of universal proxy, and the importance of diversity, tenure, and sector expertise in board refreshment. We touch on the drivers of positive acquirer stock reactions, how companies communicate value at deal announcement, activist dynamics in M&A and when activism becomes contentious, the importance of board alignment and cohesion, increased spin-off activity, and much more. We ended by asking Bill for his thoughts on how companies can attract long-only capital. Throughout the discussion, we reference several elements of Evercore's “2025 Year in Review Report.” It was a fascinating discussion and we appreciate Bill for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged this week following an unexpectedly soft December Retail Sales report. Bond volatility could remain elevated with January CPI set for release on Friday. On the crude oil market front, WTI price appears to have temporarily settled into a $60-$65/bbl trading range, given there have been no major new geopolitical surprises over the past week. In natural gas, prompt natural gas price has completely roundtripped since the Arctic blast started and is now trading back at ~$3.15/MMBtu. U.S. gas storage is back near normal levels (around the 5-year average) and winter weather from here through the end of withdrawal season will determine how constructive the setup is for summer gas price. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA has been one of the real winners this past week (up ~2.5-3.0%), especially versus the S&P 500 (up ~0.5%). Cyclical sectors (Energy, Industrials, and Materials) continue to be the market leaders, while Tech/Telecom continue to lag. In energy equities, most large-caps (Oil Majors, Oil Services, and Refiners) have already reported Q4 results, and the next few weeks will be dominated by E&Ps reporting. E&P commentary will likely be do

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Tech Taking a Backseat as Energy, Industrials Steal the Spotlight, Says Chris Puplava

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 7, 2026 15:01

Feb 6, 2026 – Chris Puplava, Chief Investment Officer at Financial Sense Wealth Management, analyzes the recent tech sector sell-off, the disruptive impact of AI advancements like Claude Legal, and the broader market implications for investors...

Dow Jones Industrials Cross 50000 for First Time

WSJ Whatâ€™s News

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 14:10

P.M. Edition for Feb. 6. Stocks bounced back today from a tech selloff. We hear from WSJ markets reporters David Uberti and Jack Pitcher about how that took the Dow over a historic milestone of 50000 and what that means. Plus, President Trump posts, then deletes, a video depicting former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama as apes. And Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has only been in her role for a few months, but she's already betting her seat on a snap election this Sunday. WSJ Tokyo bureau chief Jason Douglas joins to discuss how Takaichi hopes to cement her power and move Japan closer to the U.S. Alex Ossola hosts. Your Money Briefing episode featuring Lauryn Williams: Going for Gold: The Financial Hurdles Facing Olympic Athletes Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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DHUnplugged #789: Crash Test For Dummies

DH Unplugged

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 65:40

WORST DAY EVER for SILVER Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop New Fed Chair named Pausing on space PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers Warm-Up - WORST DAY EVER for SILVER - Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop - New Fed Chair named - Pausing on space Markets - Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter" - Deep dive into January economic results - USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead - ELON - PT Barnum move Cold Snap - On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923. - Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets - Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure. - They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip. - The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event. Right on Schedule - Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed? - Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high - Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike. THIS! - Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company's proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.” - “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.” Then Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out. - What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment? - Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment - GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK Fungus - -Interesting - Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity. - While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors. January Economic Review Employment — Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower. — Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago. — Long-term unemployment didn't change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%. — Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year. — Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year's levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply. FOMC / Interest Rates — The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. — Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target. — Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait. - Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike. - The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing. - Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place. - Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us. - Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase. - Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair) GDP & Federal Budget — Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs. — Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined. — The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year. Inflation & Consumer Spending — Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November. — Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year. — The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing. — Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024. Housing — Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low. — Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago. — New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year. — New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms. Manufacturing — Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year. — Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped. — Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries. Imports & Exports — Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025. — The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased. — For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger. Consumer Confidence — Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December. — Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk. Earnings — Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong. — 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%. — Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages. — The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. — Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services. — The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories. — The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns. — FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009. INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ S3XY No More - Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus). - Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are? - Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't? - Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing. But... - Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much. - With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly. - Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla - Tesla shares dropped after earnings FED CHAIR PICK - Drumroll: Kevin Warsh - Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability - Deficit reducer? - More hawkish than market expected? - Announce Friday after several leaks in the morning And then... - Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980. -It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record. - It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash. - The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh's nomination. - However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10% - GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record - Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago - ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK -- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely? Fed Statement and Rates - Fed out with statement - no change on rates - Changes: Inflation up, employment steady, economy strong - Does not bode for much in the way of cuts - probably on hold though end of Powell term Apple Earnings - Apple reported blowout first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and predicted growth of as much as 16% in the current quarter, matching the period that just ended. - Sales could be even better, Apple said, if the company just secure enough chips to meet its customers' iPhone demands. - The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period. - Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion. - “The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on, and at this time, we're seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said. - Stock up slightly - no great moves.... Blue Origin - Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” to prioritize development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies. - The decision reflects Blue Origin's commitment to the nation's goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence. - The pause in tourist flights grounds the company's reusable New Shepard rocket, which has sent more than 90 people to the edge of space and back to experience brief periods of weightlessness. - Datacenters on the Moon? (sounds like a Pink Floyd album) Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

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A New Playbook for Equity Investors

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2026 14:16

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang and senior leaders from Investment Management Andrew Slimmon and Jitania Kandhari unpack new investment trends from supportive monetary and fiscal policy and shifting market leadership. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross Asset Strategist. Today we're revisiting the 2026 global equity outlook with two senior leaders from Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Andrew Slimmon: I am Andrew Slimmon, Head of Applied Equity Team within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Jitania Kandhari: And I'm Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group, Portfolio Manager for Passport Strategies and Head of Macro and Thematic Research for Emerging Market Equities within Morgan Stanley Investment Management.It's Tuesday, February 3rd at 10 am in New York. So as investors are entering in 2026, after several years of very strong equity returns with policy support reaccelerating. As regular listeners have probably heard, Mike Wilson, who of course is CIO and Chief Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley – his view is that we ended a three-year rolling earnings recession in last April and entered a rolling recovery and a new bull market. Now, Andrew, in the spirit of debate, I know you have a different take on valuations and where we are at in the cycle. I'd love to hear how you're framing this for investment management clients. Andrew Slimmon: Yeah, I mean, I guess I focus a little bit more on the behavioral cycle. And I think that from a behavioral cycle we're following a very consistent pattern, which is we had a bad bear market in 2022 that bottomed down 25 percent. And that provided a wonderful opportunity to invest. But early in a behavioral cycle, investors are very pessimistic. And that was really the story of [20]23 and really 2024, which were; investors, you know, were negative on equities. The ratios were all very negative and investors sold out of equities. And that's consistent with a early cycle. And then as you move into the third-fourth year, investors tend to get more optimistic about returns. Doesn't necessarily mean the market goes down. But what it does mean is the market tends to get more volatile and returns start to compress, and ultimately, bull markets die on euphoria. And so, I think it's late cycle, but it's not end of cycle. And that's my theme; is late cycle but not end of cycle.Serena Tang: And I think on that point, one very unusual feature of this environment is that you have both monetary and fiscal policy being supportive at the same time, which, of course, rarely happens outside of recession. So how do you see those dual policy forces shaping market behavior and which parts of the market tend to benefit? Andrew Slimmon: Well, that's exactly right. Look, the last time I checked, page one of the investment handbook says, ‘Don't fight the Fed.' And so, you have monetary policy easing. And what we; remember what happened in 2021? The Fed raised rates and monetary policy was tightening. Equities do well when the Fed is easing, and that's one of the reasons why I think it's not end of cycle. And then you layer in fiscal policy with tax relief coming, it is a reason to be relatively optimistic on equities in 2026. But it doesn't mean there can't be bumps along the way – and I think a higher level of optimism as we're seeing today is a result of that. But I think you stick with those more procyclical areas: Finance, Industrials, Technology, and then you move down the cap curve a little bit. I think those are the winning trades. They really started to come to the fore in the second half of last year, and I think that will continue into 2026. Serena Tang: Right. And we've definitely seen some bumps recently, but I think on your point around yields. So, Jitania, I think that policy backdrop really ties directly to your idea of the age of capped real rates. In very simple terms, can you explain what that means and what's behind that view? Jitania Kandhari: Sure. When I say age of real rates being capped, I mean like the structural template within which I'm operating, and real rates here are defined by the 10-year on the Treasury yield adjusted for CPI.Firstly, I'd say there was too much linear thinking in markets post Liberation Day. That tariffs equals inflation equals higher rates. Now, tariff impacts, as we have seen, can be offset in several ways, and economic relationships are rarely linear.So, inflation may not go up to the extent market is expecting. So that supports the case for capped rates. And the real constraint is the debt arithmetic, right? So, if you look at the history of public debt in the U.S., whenever there was a surge in public debt during the Civil War, two World Wars, Global Financial Crisis, even during COVID. In all these periods, when debt spiked, real rates have remained negative.So, there can be short term swings in rates, but I believe that markets not necessarily central banks will even enforce that cap. Serena Tang: You've described this moment, as the great broadening of 2026. What's driving this and what do you think is happening now after years of very narrow concentration? Jitania Kandhari: Yes. I think like if last decade was about concentration, now it's going to be about breadth. And if you look at where the concentration was, it was in the [Mag] 7, in the AI trade. We are beginning to see some cracks in the consensus where adoption is happening, but monetization is lagging. But clearly the next phase of value creation could happen from just the model building to the application layer, as you guys have also talked about – from enablers to adopters.The other thing we are seeing is two AI ecosystems evolve globally. The high cost cutting edge U.S. innovation engine and the lower cost efficiency driven Chinese model, each of them have their own supply chain beneficiaries. And as AI is moving into physical world, you're going to see more opportunities. And then secondly, I think there are limitations on this tariff policies globally; and tariff fears to me remain more of an illusion than a reality because U.S. needs to import a lot of intermediate goods And then lastly, I see domestic cycles inflecting upwards in many other pockets of the world. And you add all this up; the message is clear that leadership is broadening and portfolio should broaden too. Serena Tang: And I want to sort of stay on this topic of broadening. So, Andrew, I think, you've also highlighted, you know, this market broadening, especially beyond the large cap leaders, even as AI investment continues, I think, as you touched on earlier. So why does that matter for equity leadership in 2026? And can you talk about the impact of this broadening on valuations in general? Andrew Slimmon: Sure. So I think, you know, I've been around a long time and I remember when the internet first rolled out, the Mosaic browser was introduced in 1993. And the first thing the stock market tried to do is appoint winners – of who was going to win the internet, you know, search race. And it was Ask Jeeves and it was Yahoo and it was Netscape. Well, none of those were the winners. We just don't know who's ultimately going to be the tech winner. I think it's much safer to know that just like the internet, AI is a technology productivity enhancing tool, and companies are going to embrace AI just like they embraced the internet. And the reason the stock market doubled between 1997 and the dotcom peak was that productivity margins went up for a lot of companies in a lot of industries as they embraced the internet. So, to me, a broadening out and looking at lower valuations, it is in many ways safer than saying this is the technology winner, and this is technology loser. I think it's all many different industries are going to embrace and benefit from what's going on with AI. Serena Tang: You don't want to know where I was in 1993. And I don't recognize most of those names. Andrew Slimmon: Sorry. I was 14! Serena Tang: [Laughs] Ok. Investors often hear two competing messages now. Ignore the macro and buy great companies or let the big picture drive everything. How do you balance top-down signals with bottom-up fundamentals in your investment process? Andrew Slimmon: Yeah, I think you have to employ both, and I hear that all the time; especially I hear, you know, my competitors, ‘Oh, I just focus on my stock picks, my bottom up.' But, you know, look statistically, two-thirds of a manager's relative performance comes from macro. You know, how did growth do? How did value do? All those types of things that have nothing to do with what stock picks... And likewise, much of a return of an individual stock has to do with things beyond just what's happening fundamentally. But some of it comes from what's happening at the company level. So, I think to be a great investor, you have to be aware of the macro. The Fed cutting rates this year is a very powerful tool, and if you don't understand the amplifications of that as per what types of stocks work, because you're so focused on the micro, I think that's a mistake. Likewise, you have to know what's going on in your company [be]cause one third of term does come from actual stock selection. So, I'm a big believer in marrying a top down and a bottom up and try to capture the two thirds and the one third.Serena Tang: Since that 2022 bear market low that you talked about earlier. I mean, your framework really favored growth and value over defensives. But I think more recently you've increased your non-U.S. exposure. What changed in your top-down signals and bottom-up data to make global opportunities more compelling now? Is it the narrative of the end of U.S. exceptionalism or something else? Andrew Slimmon: No, I really think it's actually something else, which is we have picked up signals from other parts of the world, Europe and Japan. That are different signals than we saw really for the last decade, which is namely that pro-cyclical stocks started to work. Value stocks started to work in the first half of 2025. And you look at the history of when that happens, usually value doesn't work for a year and peter out. So that's been a huge change where I would say, a safer orientation has shown the relative leadership, and we have to be – recognize that. So, in our global strategies, we've been heavily weighted towards, the U.S. orientation because we didn't see really a cyclical bias outside. And now that's changing and that has caused us to increase the allocation to non-U.S. exposure. It's a longwinded way of saying, look, I think what the story of last year was the U.S. did just fine. But there were parts of the world that did better and I think that will continue in 2026. Serena Tang: Andrew, Jitania thank you so much for taking the time to talk. Andrew Slimmon: Great speaking with you, Serena. Jitania Kandhari: Thanks for having us on the show. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

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The Bullish Signals That Investors Overlook

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2026 5:12

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses key catalysts that investors may be missing, but that are likely to boost U.S. equities in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the converging market forces bolstering our bullish outlook for 2026. It's Monday, January 5th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. The New Year is usually a time to look forward. But today, I want to take a step back and talk about what the market is missing. A series of bullish catalysts are lining up at the same time, and the market is still underestimating their collective impact. There's been a lot of focus on individual positives—solid earnings growth, further Fed easing—but in our view, the real story is how these forces are reinforcing one another. Deregulation, positive operating leverage, accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly supportive fiscal policy are all working in the same direction. And as we head into mid-term elections later this year, these policy levers are likely to stay supportive.Importantly, this isn't a market that's already priced for the outcomes I envision. Positioning in cyclical trades remains relatively light, and sentiment in economically sensitive areas is far from exuberant. That combination—of improving fundamentals with cautious positioning—is exactly what tends to characterize the early stages of a recovery. I continue to believe these tailwinds are most underappreciated in cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Financials, Industrials, and small- and mid-cap stocks. Many of the indicators we track are only just beginning to turn higher. This doesn't look late-cycle to me—it looks early in what I have deemed to be a rolling recovery. One reason investors have been hesitant is the sluggishness of traditional business-cycle indicators, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. There's been a reluctance to press cyclical trades until those gauges clearly re-accelerate; and beneath that hesitation is a lingering anxiety that the U.S. economy could even slip back into a growth scare. My view is different. I believe a three year rolling recession ended with Liberation Day. If that's true, then the moderate softness we're now witnessing in lagging labor data is constructive for equities because it keeps the Fed leaning dovish for longer and more aggressive—a positive for equities. I see the second half of 2025 as the bottoming process for key macro indicators; with 2026 shaping up as a year of re-acceleration. Longer-cycle analysis supports this. Specifically, the 45-month cycle of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index points to a rebound. That recovery has been delayed—but not cancelled. Another tailwind that doesn't get nearly enough attention is energy prices. Gasoline prices in particular are sitting near five-year lows, which is providing real economic relief for lower- and middle-income consumers. That cushion matters, especially as other parts of the economy firm. This past weekend's events in Venezuela argue for lower oil prices for longer. From a sector standpoint, Financials stand out as the key beneficiary of deregulation and these stocks have been great performers over the past year in anticipation of these changes. I think there is more to go in 2026. Housing could be another important piece of the recovery. Subdued wage growth and falling rents may pressure home prices, while some builders are prioritizing volume over margins. While that may cap profitability for the builders, it could unlock housing velocity and feed into a more dovish inflation backdrop. Of course, there are also risks. Liquidity has been our top concern since September, and markets have reflected that through weakness in speculative assets. The good news is that the Fed has responded by ending quantitative tightening early and restarting asset purchases through the Reserve Management Program. This effectively adds liquidity to a system that was showing signs of stress this past several months. Another risk is a renewed slowdown in AI CapEx, particularly as markets demand clearer payback from debt-funded spending. And geopolitically, the U.S. intervention in Venezuela raises new questions. Strategically, it reinforces U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and supports our ‘Run It Hot' thesis—but the key wildcard remains whether China chooses to react. Net-net, we think the balance of risks and rewards still favor leaning into this early-cycle recovery and our bullish outlook for US equities in 2026. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Special Encore: 2026 U.S. Outlook: The Bull Market's Underappreciated Narrative