Podcasts about industrials

Original Release Date: November 19, 2025Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

David Trainer of New Constructs on what fundamentals are really saying about today's market. Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan breaks down the state of industrials and Alan Ratner of Zelman assessing real estate trends and risks. Our Steve Kovach examines whether artificial intelligence is becoming commoditized faster than investors expected. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The ASX 200 jumped 96 points to close at 8796 (1.1%) on a six-week high as Santa seems to have found his plug-in charger. Yesterday was all about the miners, today was all about the banks. CBA rose 2.2% with NAB up 0.9% and the Big Bank Basket back up to $280.18 (1.7%). RBA minutes suggested rate rises and an economy that is doing ok. Maybe too ok. Other financials also did well with MQG up 1.6% and insurers pushing ahead. QBE up 2.0% and SUN up 1.4%. REITs were stars with GMG running hot, up 8.3%, on a $14bn data centre deal, VCX rose 0.8%. Industrials were firm with WES up 1.5% and NCK still feeling loved up 2.8%. ALL rose 1.2% and TAH rallied 1.0% after Macquarie revealed a 5% stake. Tech stocks started to stir at last, WTC up 2.3% and 360 up a modest 2.2%. NXT rose 1.2% and ELS did well up 3.6%.Resources took a bit of a breather despite gold flying, BHP up 1.1% with FMG down 0.4% and the gold miners mixed. NEM up 1.2% and NST fell 0.6%. Lithium stocks remain in favour, LTR up 3.2%. Uranium stocks steady and oil and gas stocks positive, WDS up 1.2% and STO up 0.7% on higher crude prices.In corporate news, SWM unchanged as the merger with SXL was approved. CMM fell 1.8% after agreeing to acquire a project from Tempest Minerals. RHC was 2.9% better, on news to acquire National Capital Private Hospitals in Canberra.On the economic front, RBA Minutes out today. The board has less confidence in its previous assessment that monetary policy is restricting the economy, and that interest rate rises will be considered next year if higher inflation persists. Monthly inflation numbers remain volatile.Asian markets were firm. Japan up 0.3%, China up 0.3% and HK unchanged.US futures – DJ down 49 Nasdaq down 810-year yields eases to 4.76%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

The big things you need to know:First, we are upgrading S&P 500 Health Care to overweight from market weight.Second, we are upgrading S&P 500 Communication Services to overweight from market weight.Third, our other S&P 500 recommendations are unchanged. We remain overweight Financials and Materials, underweight Consumer Discretionary, and market weight all other sectors. Among our market weights, we have a preference for sectors that look attractively valued on our quant analysis (Consumer Staples, Energy, REITs) over those that look expensive (Utilities, Tech, and Industrials) which have been the early beneficiaries of the AI trade.We also close with a quick thought on the biggest macro takeaways from our 4Q25 global analyst outlook survey.

US equity markets advanced for a third consecutive session to open the holiday-shortened week - Dow rose +228-points or +0.47%, with Merck & Co (up +3.59%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index. Honeywell International fell -1.58% after the aerospace and industrial-automation company lowered its full-year earnings outlook and updated investors on its expectations surrounding the Flexjet lawsuit. Nike Inc -2.54%.The broader S&P500 gained +0.64%, with Materials (up +1.35%), Financials (+1.25%), Industrials (+1.11%) and Energy (+1.08%) all rising over >1% to lead ten of the eleven primary sectors higher. Consumer Staples (down -0.41%) was the only primary sector to settle in the red.

The ASX 200 kicked off the short week in fine style up 79 points (0.9%) to 8699 as gold and copper headed for records in Asia. Resource stocks kicked again, BHP up 1.6% with FMG up 1.7%. Gold miners in demand, NST up 4.1% and NEM up 5.2%. BGL was the only loser in the gold sector. Lithium stocks also ran, MIN up 6.2% and LTR pushed 5.5% better as it starts underground mining. Rare earths also doing ok. MEI jumped 32.1% om environmental approvals, LYC up 2.4%. Even uranium stocks glowed today, PDN up 7.0%. Banks were better with CBA up 0.3% and ANZ up 0.7%. The Big Bank Basket up to $275.41 (+0.2%). Healthcare firmed, CSL up 0.7% and PME rallied 2.3%. REITs modestly higher. Industrials mixed, WTC fell 4.2%, XRO flat. REA and CAR slightly better, retail was boosted by NCK up 9.9% on a trading update. APE also rallied hard up 6.3%.In corporate news, DRO soared 7.9% on new director guidelines on shareholdings. IGO jumped 2.6% on commissioning a new chemical plant at Greenbushes. NXT soared 6.6% on further contract wins.Nothing on the economic dance card.Asian markets were firm. Japan's Nikkei up 1.9%, China up 0.8% and HK up 0.2%.US futures – DJ up 33 Nasdaq up 9510-year yields steady at 4.80%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Dr. Lance Mortlock discusses his book "Outside In, Inside Out" and techniques to unleash the power of business strategy in times of market uncertainty. Lance is Managing Partner of Ernst & Young Canada's Industrials and Energy practice and an expert in turning volatility into a competitive advantage. Listen for three action items you can use today. Host, Kevin Craine Do you want to be a guest? https://Everyday-MBA.com/guest Do you want to advertise on the show? https://Everyday-MBA.com/advertise

The ASX 200 finished the week up 40 points to 8628 for a 70-odd point loss for the week. Banks were firm, CBA up 1.8% and WBC up 1.3% as the Big Bank Basket rose to $274.68(+1.3%). MQG rose 1.5% despite a $35m fine for reporting short sellers. Insurers better. Financials generally better too. ZIP up 3.3% and CGF rising 3.1%. REITs gained slightly as CHC jumped 2.3% and GMG up 0.5%. Tech was a winner today, something we haven't seen for a while. WTC up 3.2% and XRO rising 2.3%. The All -Tech Index rose 1.5%. Industrials generally were firm, JBH up 2.3%, SGH rising 0.9% and SIG having a good day on a broker upgrade.Resources were mixed, BHP dropped 1.2% with FMG under pressure off 3.2% despite a good week for iron ore. Gold miners found their feet with GMD up 1.6% and VAU rising 1.3%. Base metals stocks also in demand, MLX up 4.4% and DVP rising 4.1%. WDS unchanged and STO off 2.1% with uranium stocks bouncing off lows. LOT up 18.8% and PDN up 9.3%. Even BOE rose 11.4%.In corporate news, CTD remain suspended and announced a 'skinny' update. 4DX soared 21.5% on a new US contract, WTC rallied after White was cleared of wrong doing by the board. ABB fell 1.4% after warning the competition regulator's new voice interconnection rates would cut earnings.In economic news, nothing locally, the BoJ raised rates to the highest in 30 years by 25bps. No surprise as inflation stays elevated.Japan raises rates as expected. Japan up 1.0% HK up 0.6% and China up 0.5%US futures – DJ down 93 Nasdaq up 2910-year yields steady at 4.76%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

A quiet session on the ASX with the index rising 3 points to 8588. The banks held up with CBA rising 0.7% and the Big Bank Basket rising to $271.08 (0.2%). Insurers better too, other financials drifting lower, REITs better with VCX up 0.8% and SCG up 1.0%. Industrials mixed, ORG fell 2.5% with WOW and COL pushing around 1.0% better, retail was mixed, JBH up 1.6% and APE down 1.4%. Tech stocks making some gains after significant losses, WTC up 1.6% and XRO finding support up 2.5%. REA and CAR also finding support.Resources were mixed, gold miners gave back some of the gains with EVN down 1.1% and NEM off 1.5% with iron ore miners better, BHP moved 1.1% ahead with RIO doing well too. Lithium stocks gave back some gains and uranium stocks under pressure after BOE fell 24.6% on a Honeymoon update. DYL down 7.8% and PDN down 4.8%. In oil and gas, the big news was the surprise resignation of WDS CEO Meg O'Neill to take up the helm at BP. WDS dropped 2.7% on the news, STO rose 1.0% as crude rose.In corporate news, BAP rallied 15.5% from lows on the CEO resignation. APA rose 1.2% after selling 20% interest in GDI. BEN fell 1.5% on AUSTRAC news as it continues to investigate.On the economic front, NZ GDP grew at 1.1% last quarter.Asian markets weaker again, Japan down 0.2%, HK down 0.3% and China up 0.4%.US futures: Dow down 23 Nasdaq up 9110-year yields steady at 4.75%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed's own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.Key Takeaways:• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forwardJump to:0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 202641:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And WagesConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

The Australian sharemarket fell after a weak US lead and oil declined to its lowest level in almost five years. That is good for inflation though. The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 13.7 points, or 0.2% at 8585.20 as a sell-off in the energy sector on weaker oil prices was offset by a strong rally in mining stocks. The All Ordinaries slipped 0.1%. Industrials were weak and tech once again sold down hard. Banks eased back too.Lithium stocks soared on JP Morgan upgrades and gold miners flying high. Gold in AUD hits $6550.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

With government spend poised to spike, defense valuations in Europe are at record highs. But the response to global threats brings opportunities for a much wider set of industrials and innovators. Dominic Hudson, Head of Investment Banking for Europe and APAC, is joined by Cliff Bayer, Head of Aerospace, Defense and Government Services; Rob Jurd, Head of Industrials for Europe; and Claire Sturgess, Head of Canadian Industrials and CME Investment Banking, to explore the sector's outlook for 2026.

Link da Entrevista ==> https://youtu.be/anCu8Nj_3OEOlá sejam bem vindo ao nosso quadro de entrevistas do Podcast da Mineração.Neste programa, entrevistamos a Patricia Muricy que é Líder de Energy, Resources & Industrials e Mining & Metals da Deloitte Brasil | Membro do Conselho da Deloitte Brasil | Regional Managing PartnerConversamos sobre O estudo Global da Deloitte- Tracking The Trends 2025 Para a Mineração.Criação de Arte: Maryana BarbosaPatrocinadores Oficiais do Podcast da Mineração:ÍGNEA Geologia & Meio Ambiente - https://www.igneabr.com.br/ - @igneabrVP Transportes http://www.vptransportes.com.br/ - @vptransportesltdConfiram essa e outras entrevistas no canal e Lembrem-se: "Mineração pode não ser o futuro mas não existe futuro sem a mineração"#inovação #mineração #podcast #podcastdamineração #inteligencia #deloitte

A inteligência artificial está assumindo um papel central em setores como energia, mineração e indústria pesada, onde cada decisão afeta produtividade, segurança e continuidade operacional.No segundo episódio da série Futuro Inteligente com Deloitte e a AWS, a MIT Technology Review Brasil discute como a IA está sendo utilizada para otimizar manutenção, reduzir custos e preservar conhecimento técnico especializado.A conversa aborda modelos que analisam milhares de relatos para prever riscos, simulações avançadas que testam cenários extremos e os efeitos da digitalização em setores que dependem de dados confiáveis para ganhar escala, velocidade e precisão.Participam Patrícia Muricy, sócia-líder para Energy, Resources & Industrials na Deloitte, Tim Wiesel, sócio para Artificial Intelligence and Data na Deloitte, e Rafael Soares, diretor para Power and Utilities na AWS.

Werbung | Exklusives Angebot für unsere Hörer: Testet Handelsblatt Premium 4 Wochen für 1 € und bleibt zu den Entwicklungen an den Finanz- und Aktienmärkten informiert. Mehr zum Vorteilsangebot der Handelsblatt-Fachmedien erfahrt ihr unter: www.handelsblatt.com/mehraktien Dow auf Rekordkurs – Rotation raus aus Tech, rein in Value, Financials, Health Care und Industrials. Broadcom trotz starkem AI-Ausblick unter Druck, der Markt nimmt Gewinne im AI-Trade mit. Lululemon springt nach CEO-Rücktritt und Q3-Beat zweistellig nach oben, RH legt nach gemischten Zahlen vorbörslich zu. Tilray explodiert, nachdem Berichte über eine Lockerung der US-Marihuana-Regeln kursieren. S&P 500 und Dow auf Allzeithoch, der Nasdaq hinkt hinterher – die „Magnificent 7“ verlieren etwas an Zugkraft. Kleinkapitalisierte Werte drehen auf: Der Russell 2000 markiert ein neues Rekordhoch und führt die Wochenerholung an. Der dritte Fed-Zinsschnitt des Jahres befeuert die Hoffnung auf eine breitere Jahresendrally jenseits der großen Tech-Namen. Die große Frage: Setzt sich die Marktbreite durch – oder holen sich die Anleger die AI-Highflyer schneller zurück, als viele denken? Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ +++ Hinweis zur Werbeplatzierung von Meta: https://backend.ad-alliance.de/fileadmin/Transparency_Notice/Meta_DMAJ_TTPA_Transparency_Notice_-_Ad_Alliance_approved.pdf +++ Der Podcast wird vermarktet durch die Ad Alliance. Die allgemeinen Datenschutzrichtlinien der Ad Alliance finden Sie unter https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html Die Ad Alliance verarbeitet im Zusammenhang mit dem Angebot die Podcasts-Daten. Wenn Sie der automatischen Übermittlung der Daten widersprechen wollen, klicken Sie hier: https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html Impressum: https://www.360wallstreet.de/impressum

The ASX 200 finished the week on a very firm note up 105 points to 8697(1.2%). Up 0.7% for the week. Across the board gains, with banks surging as CBA rose 2.1% and NAB up 1.8% after its AGM. The Big Bank Basket rose to $272.70 (+1.8%). Other financials also did well, MQG bouncing 2.7% and insurers too better. QBE and SUN up over 1%. REITs bounced, GMG up 0.8% and VCX up 2.4% with healthcare too also doing well, CSL rallying 2.9% with SIG up 1.4%. Industrials better but not flying. Retail saw some shoppers out and about, JBH up 2.7% and MYR up 4.4% with losses in LOV and TPW continuing. Tech remained a sub-optimal place to be, TNE down 1.6% with XRO continuing to fall, down another 0.5% with the All-Tech Index off 0.2%.Resources again was the place to be. Gold miners soared as brokers started to amend forecasts for metal prices higher as 2026 comes into view. NST up 2.9%, GMD up 7.6% and NEM rising 5.7%. BHP and RIO also strong on copper exposure, and uranium stocks gained ground. PDN up 4.8% and DYL rising 4.9%. Lithium stocks were a little depressed.In corporate news, former ANZ CEO is suing the bank for his lost $13.5m bonus. ASB dropped 3% on news that Jim Chalmers will allow Hanwha to increase its stake to near 20%. 4DX jumped 8.8% on an options deal and BMC Minerals debuted.Nothing on the economic front.Asian markets pushed higher, Japan up 1.7% with HK up 1.4% and China up 0.1%. Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

We'll finally get the last monetary policy decision of the year from the US central bank today and a 25 basis point cut is firmly priced in. Almost more important will be the dot plot, economic projections, and comments from Jerome Powell after the main event. Global equity markets have been relatively muted in the last 24 hours aside from some company specific news that you can catch up on in today's podcast. Strong earnings growth and an accommodative Fed are a strong backdrop going forwards, as detailed by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who also provides more clarity on his recent downgrade of Industrials to Neutral. He even provides a sneak peek at his preferred sectors for 2026.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:52) - Equity market update and industrials downgrade: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (11:15) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The ASX 200 wandered around again today, waiting for the Fed, closing down 7 points to 8579 (0.1%). Banks eased back slightly, CBA down 0.5% and the Big Bank Basket fell to $267.79 (0.4%). MQG sliding another 0.7% again with other financials easier. Insurers came back to earth, with QBE down 0.4% and IAG off 1.0%. Industrials were flat, retailers fell, APE down 2.3% and JBH off 2.3% with TPW continuing to slide, off another 3.0%. WES was a bright spot up 0.7%, maybe lithium exposure! Healthcare eased back too, CSL down 0.1% and COH off 2.5%. Tech fell yet again, WTC down 1.9% and XRO sliding further, TNE off another 1.3%. Interest rate sensitive stocks under pressure. QAN down 0.8% and TCL off 1.3%.In resources, iron ore stocks picked up, BHP up 0.5% and FMG up another 0.9%. Gold miners up as RMS announced a $250m buyback. NST up 5.1% and EVN up 4.5%. Silver stocks also having a good run. Oil and gas fell and uranium stocks rose slightly.In corporate news, SBM up 10.9%, it secured a strategic partner and funding for Simberi, DRO popped 16.2% on a LW article. 4DX jumped 6.0% on a new order in the US. GQG unchanged on FUM data.On the economic front, we had Chinese CPI slightly higher than expected.Meanwhile in Asia, Japan down 0.1%, HK down 0.5% and China down 0.8%.10-year yields higher at 4.80%.US Futures – Dow down 4 and Nasdaq down 28.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Mike Wilson, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, and Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discuss the outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026 and the most significant themes for retail investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Daniel Skelly: And I'm Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Mike Wilson: Today we're going to have a conversation about our views on the U.S. stock market in 2026, and what matters most to retail investors in particular. It's Monday, December 8th at 9am in New York. So, let's get after it. Dan, it's great to see you. We always talk about the markets together. I think this is a great opportunity for us to share those thoughts with listeners. Our view coming into this year is still pretty bullish for 2026. We've been bullish on [20]25 as you have, probably for, you know, similar – maybe some slightly different reasons. I think one of our differentiating views is that we do think inflation is still a major risk for individual investors. And institutional investors, quite frankly, which is why stocks have done so much better. A concept, I think you're well aware of. And I think, you know, the risk for retail is that there's going to be; it's going to be volatile. So, point-to-point, we're still bullish as you are. How are you thinking about managing that point-to-point path? And how are you structuring your portfolio as we go into 2026 with a bullish outlook – but understanding that it's not always going to be smooth. Daniel Skelly: So, like you said, we've also shared this view that next year's going to be positive, albeit there's going to be more volatility. And when I think about the two main risks that retail investors are facing today, one of them is definitely inflation. We're seeing that in services. We're seeing that in housing. We've had the labor market shrink over the recent couple of quarters, so who knows if wage inflation pops up again. But there are ways to definitely hedge against that in an equity portfolio. We think, for instance, owning parts of the AI infrastructure cohort is one of the ways of hedging, whether that be in utilities, pipelines, energy infrastructure in general. These are areas that we think are a necessary hedge against inflation risk. And number two are a positive diversifier. And second key point, Mike, just thinking about that diversification comment. Look, we all know that in many ways the Mag 7 – and the technology strength that we've seen this past year – has driven a fairly concentrated market. I think what people, particularly on the individual side, are recognizing less is just how much AI cuts across many other sectors in parts of the market. And again, we think that risk of over concentration is still out there. And we like the idea of thinking of embedding natural diversification into the equity portfolio. Mike Wilson: Yeah. I mean, it's interesting. Inflation, you know, is part of that story too because AI is somewhat disinflationary or deflationary. I think, you know, investing in things that can drive higher productivity even away from AI can mitigate some of that risk in the economic outlook. But if I think about, you know, the Mag 7 dominance, and just this concentrated market risk, which you spoke about. If inflation re-accelerates next year, which, you know, is one of our core views as the economy improves – doesn't that broaden out the opportunity set? And you know, like there's been this idea that, ‘Oh, you have to own these seven stocks and nothing else.' I mean, part of our view for next year is that we think the market's going to broaden out. How are you set up for that broadening out? And how are you thinking about picking stocks and new themes that can work – that maybe people aren't paying attention to right now? Daniel Skelly: Yeah, it's a great point, Mike. And so, on the first topic, we do think there's broadening, and that's a combination of factors. Number one is just the market becoming more convicted about the Fed cutting path, which we've talked about, and the firm's view reaffirms for next year. Number two is starting to see some of the benefits of deregulation, right, which should impact maybe some of the more cyclical sectors out there – Financials, Energy being two of them. Maybe seeing more M&A activity too as a byproduct of deregulation. And that should bode better for mid- and maybe small caps as well as they receive a M&A premia in the valuations. And I know you've talked about small caps recently in your commentary. But last point I'll make Mike, and it comes back to AI. It almost feels like AI is this huge inflationary ramp at first to get to that deflationary nirvana down the road – with productivity. I think one of the key factors we think about, in terms of a bottom-up perspective, which is what we focus on in across the portfolio, is definitely pricing power. Who owns the pricing power and the key data and the key AI adoption outlook in order to absorb all the different tools and technology diffusion we've seen in the last three years. And that's going to play out, Mike, as you well know, across a variety of sectors and themes. So, agreed, we should see broadening for all those varying reasons. Mike Wilson: So, I mean, there are a couple areas I think, where we overlap. Financials…Daniel Skelly: Yep. Mike Wilson: Industrials, Healthcare, some of the themes that I think we both; we share our bullish views. And what do you think those areas are, within those sectors? You think that you have a differentiated view maybe than the consensus being Financials, Industrials, Healthcare? That the market may be missing, which offers more upset? Daniel Skelly: Sure. I'll start with Financials, which has been an overweight call for us for some time, as I know it has for you as well. And I think that kind of cyclical re-acceleration in the economy is one part. I think the Fed cutting is another part. I think deregulation is clearly another driver. Fourth Capital Markets recovery, which we have seen now. We had a little bit of a technical lull with the government shutdown in terms of filings and issuance, but we see all of the pipeline indicators, indicating green lights for next year in terms of recovery. I think the one thing I would argue that I've observed in looking at all of our vast data sets is that despite all these different bullish factors, this still maybe has been a theme or a sector that investors have traded in and out of, right? I don't think I've even seen like a real strong, consistent overweight. So, I think number one, that's an opportunity. And last point is, listen, there's different sub-sector bifurcation going on, as you know, within the industry, whereas money centers and large banks are performing really well. The same is not the case of regionals and alts managers. And there are varying reasons for that. But we would even argue, Mike, there could be catchup trades within the sector next year. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I would agree on that. I mean, the regional over money centers and actually regionals over alt managers, because I mean – I think the Treasury Secretary has talked about this, you know. Trying to get the regulated banking system kind of back in the game may actually be an opportunity to take share back from some of those alt managers, which have actually done quite well. What about on Healthcare? We upgraded that back in the summer. I think you've been constructive on parts of Healthcare, right. Wwhat do you think people are missing there and why could that be a good sector for next year? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We were definitely, I'll say, earlier than you and wrong. You had really good timing in terms of your Healthcare upgrade last summer. And look, the sector was out of favor for two years. What we think we observed in the kind of July-August period is: First and foremost, I think we got past the point of maximum policy concern and risk. And ironically, we saw some kind of nominal or surface level deal signed with the government around most favored nation pricing. And it was really, not a lot to write home about. It wasn't as egregious as a policy inflection as some had feared. So, I think that was the first key catalyst. Second, we just saw a really good revisions breadth. And I know this is a comment you make a lot in your work. But we saw across big pharma, tools and life science, medical technology, and devices. We saw really good positive earnings revisions coming out of third and even starting the second quarter. Thirdly, I think if you're talking about an M&A in capital markets recovery, you can't not talk about Healthcare. I think that's a space that'll be ripe for deal making. And then just fourth, right? Look, as the market broadens out, and as people are stopping or maybe slowing the crowding and the key leadership, they're going to go again from AI enablers to AI adopters. And we think AI is going to be a vector that cuts across the Healthcare industry in a really positive way. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, the efficiencies that are, you know, possible in the Healthcare sector seem immense. I mean, it, it appears to me that that's going to be an area where there's probably some new solutions, some new companies we don't even know about yet. So, to me that's a very exciting area that's been dormant for quite a while. What about Consumer, Dan? It's been this K economy. It's been very bifurcated, you know, high-end versus middle-income, lower-income. I mean, what are the themes within consumer that you're finding in putting to work in your portfolio? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We've talked a lot, Mike, in the last year or so about playing Consumer platforms, particularly domestically oriented versus global consumer brands. And there's a couple of key drivers behind that. But first, when you look at what's going on in consumer land, and Simeon Gutman's been a really good, kind of, analyst looking at this theme over time. In many ways it's starting to resemble the Mag 7 in terms of winner take all phenomena. If you look at some of the major consumer big box platforms, they're taking 50- 60 percent of share of total retail sales. Just a couple of companies. So, number one, we're really focused on platforms where market share gains, free cash flow and revenue – recurring revenue – in particular, are leading to even stronger competitive moats, particularly in a capital-intensive industry. And what we've observed about retail is that as those leaders in big box areas take more share, they can reinvest that winning capital in their advertising growth in their online channel and widen their moats even more. Secondly though, in order to have a positive theme, I've always said you got to fund it from somewhere. And so, what we've observed again over the last year or so is – when I think about some of the even highest quality global brands they've suffered seeing less traction in China. And that's amid less of a willingness from Chinese consumers to own American and European brands. There's a lot to that, but I think culturally, obviously the trade war, the AI war for prominence leading to maybe some of that lack of cultural traction. Secondly, we've also, I think, started to see the growth of AI tools start to weigh on established brands. I think what makes a brand cool and the barriers to entry in terms of creating brands is going to go down in the future because of AI influencing and advertising tools. And so, simply put, we continue to like, Mike, the big box consumer platforms across, clothing and food, housing, across e-commerce. That continues to be one of our higher conviction themes. Mike Wilson: All right, Dan, I want to come back to, kind of, AI infrastructure. I mean, AI spending has been the big, big theme. But there's other types of infrastructure spend and CapEx. It's been dormant, quite frankly, and with the [One] Big Beautiful Bill [Act] perhaps incentivizing some of that. How does that play into your thought process around other industrial stocks that could benefit? Daniel Skelly: Absolutely, Mike. You cited the AI infrastructure spending. We think continues kind of unimpeded going into next year. Number two, we think the Fed cutting, just creating better financing conditions in terms of bigger projects. You mentioned as well, the fiscal incentives. And look, I think Chris Snyder has been spot on the last year or so talking about reshoring production wins coming back to the U.S. I don't think this is certainly as cognizant on the – or on the minds of individual investors. Maybe not even institutional investors. But the U.S. is winning manufacturing production share and has been for some time. And we've seen that no doubt ramp up post the announcement of the [One] Big Beautiful Bill {Act]. No doubt. But we think that has implications, Mike, for stocks and stock picking within what we would call, kind of, shorter cycle themes. And I think whether that be in Logistics and Transports or HVAC or some of the Non-Resi, Non-Datacenter related verticals. There are a whole bunch of stocks that have been kind of dormant for two to three years as we've been in this ISM recession that we think could certainly wake up next year as things broaden out. Mike Wilson: Yeah, we would agree with that. And I guess lastly, you know, there's always this Johnny come lately, you know, fear factor of, ‘Well … stocks are up a ton. My neighbor's bragging how much money they're making. So, I must have missed it all.' And I think embedded within that is this fear of valuation. The valuations are now very rich. What's your response to individual clients about – it's not too late, they haven't missed it. It's still a bull market. In fact, we would argue a new bull market began in April with a new economic cycle. What is your response to those folks who have that angst? Daniel Skelly: Two things. One is the market today looks totally different than it did in the past, and AI is no doubt one big part of that. The composition of the market in many ways is higher quality, less debt, more recurring revenue. Big call option on productivity coming from AI earnings, power, et cetera. So, we think the market should trade at richer levels than it did in the past, point number one. Point number two, we would say whereas most people say time is your friend – for individual investors, they would also say valuation is no short term or short run indicator, but it's the best long run indicator. And looking at today's, again, extended levels of valuation relative to history – they would say that's not going to play out well over the long run. I would actually take the other side of that. I think that the earnings and the economic potential unleashed not just from AI, but some of these fiscal and monetary policies could create tremendous margin earnings potential in the long run. And so, I think today we're looking at a level of multiples that appears artificially high. And based on what could be a big earnings inflection point in that multi-year timeframe could frankly just be superficially high. Mike Wilson: Well, Dan, it's always great to get your perspective. I always enjoyed chatting with you. Daniel Skelly: Likewise. Mike Wilson: Thanks for coming on the show and sharing it with our listeners. It's great to see you. Daniel Skelly: Thanks Mike. Mike Wilson: And thanks to our listeners. Thanks for tuning in and let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

The ASX 200 slipped 10 points in quiet trade to 8624 (0.1%). Banks eased slightly with ANZ and NAB down around 0.7%. The Big Bank Basket up to $269.33 (0.3%). Other financials and insurers were firm, QBE up 1.1% and ZIP doing well, up 5.7%. Industrials wafted around, retailers fell with JBH and WES showing modest losses. REITs were slightly better, led by GMG and TLS had a good day as did REA. Technology stocks were mixed, WTC up 0.8% and XRO continuing to fall, off another 0.6%. The All-Tech Index rising 0.1%.In the miners, iron ore majors came under a little pressure, with RIO off 0.9%. Gold miners too were under some pressure as bullion drifted lower, NST down 1.4% and EVN off 2.1%. Lithium stocks were on a roll. PLS up 6.1% and LTR blasting 14.8% ahead on UBS upgrades and short covering. Uranium stocks down, modest losses only. BOE the exception falling 4.5%.In corporate news, NSR got an agreed bid from Brookfield-GIC at 286c. S&P have downgraded their credit outlook for ASX Ltd to “negative” from “stable”. TNE have backed the new CFO following his time with CTD.On the economic front, RBA meeting tomorrow, and almost a shoe-in for no change to rates. The AUD is trading at a 3-month high.Meanwhile in Asia, Japan up 0.5%, HK down 1.0% and China up 0.7%.10-year yields steady at 4.70%.US Futures – DJ up 18 points and Nasdaq up 66.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Wall St was little changed overnight as traders absorbed mixed US labour data and strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut next week, while small caps hit new highs and nuclear energy stocks rallied. Industrials and communication services helped keep the S&P 500 near record levels, bond yields ticked higher, and European markets rose on improved risk appetite. Locally, the ASX is set to open higher after miners hit fresh record highs, supported by copper strength, with oil, gold and iron ore all firmer ahead of key US inflation data. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The ASX 200 meandered around waiting for the Test to start. At the close, the index was up 23 points to 8618 (0.3%) in a narrow trading range. Banks found some buyers with the Big Bank Basket rallying to $266.71 (0.8%) as ANZ continued higher, up 1.7%. Financials generally were on hold, REITs slid with GMG down 2.7% as higher bond yields took their toll after household spending showed renewed strength. Industrials too were wishy washy, ALL down 0.7% and COL off 1.7% with retailers falling, JBH down 2.1% and TPW falling another 2.4%. STP fell hard on a trading update. Tech stocks were slightly firmer, WTC did better after the investor day yesterday, up 1.7%, with 360 also better. The All-Tech Index drifted 0.3% lower.Resources were all about copper. BHP up 3.6% with RIO joining the fun and rising 3.9%. Gold miners slipped as a stronger AUD took its toll. Lithium stocks are also coming off the boil with VUL copping it on the capital raise and ex-entitlement. Oil and gas are modestly higher, with uranium stocks mixed. In corporate news, BEN is in the frame with job cuts, REG sold some aged care homes, and GEM updated the market on its former employee facing an additional 83 charges. On the economic front, stronger-than-expected household spending reignited rate rise fears. Asian markets, Japan recovered 1.8% with HK up 0.2% and China up 0.3%.10-year yields pushed higher again to 4.69%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Despite disappointing economic data, treasury yield dynamics, particularly the widening 2-10 spread, are supporting financial and industrial stocks, making a year-end market grind higher plausible. Justin Bergner notes that a hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut is likely, conditioning the market for less frequent cuts. He highlights regional banks and short-cycle industrial stocks as potential opportunities, given their underperformance and improving macro indicators.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The ASX 200 rose just 16 points to 8595 (0.2%) after slightly disappointing GDP numbers boosted hopes for steady rates at least. Banks were stable, ANZ up % with the Big Bank Basket up to $264.60 (0.3%) with MQG bouncing back 1.0%. Other financials were quiet, REITs rallied on the GDP despite yields rising to 4.64%. Industrials eased back, BXB down 1.1%, healthcare slipped, SIG down 1.4% and retails drifted lower, APE down 0.4% and WEB off 1.0%. Tech was mixed, WTC up 4.5% on its Investor Day, XRO fell 0.2% and the All-Tech Index fell 0.1%. Resources were mixed, iron ore miners saw some profit taking as the first cargo from Simandou set sail. Gold miners also mixed with PRU bidding for PDI in shares. Lithium stocks eased, uranium better with PDN up 5.2% and DYL rising 4.7%. Nothing stirring in oil and gas.In corporate news, 4DX sprinted 16.0% out of the blocks after securing a US$10m CTVQ order from Philips. VUL in a trading halt with a mammoth capital raise to fund Lionheart. XYZ fell 6.0% on a presentation, and BET jumped 12.9% on a deal with Penn Entertainment.In economic news, GDP came in slightly below expectations at 0.4%, giving the RBA an excuse to pause. In China, service activity weakened. Asian markets mixed, Japan recovered 1.6% with HK down 0.9% and China flat.10-year yields pushed higher again to 4.64%.US Futures heading higher, Dow futures up 121 with Nasdaq up 50Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Open Discussion!

The ASX 200 dropped 49 points to 8565 (0.6%) after a promising start. US futures in the negative hurt sentiment, together with Japanese losses on higher rates coming. Losses pretty much across the board, CSL fell 1.4% on vaccine concerns, the banks wilted with the Big Bank Basket down to $262.95 (0.7%). ANZ falling 1.3% and financials under pressure, HUB down 4.5% and NWL falling 4.0%. MQG dipped 0.4%. REITS slid with SGP down 2.3% and VCX off 1.2%. Industrials also sliding, TLS down 1.2% with CPU falling 3.3% and REA off 0.8%. Tech slipped, WTC down 2.6% and TNE falling 2.1%. Retail also in the doldrums, TPW resumed the dive, off 7.3%, APE similarly off 2.1% and NCK down 3.0%.In resources, Iron ore majors held firm, gold miners were mixed despite bullion rising, EVN down 1.9% and lithium stocks depressed, PLS off 3.2% and MIN down 3.9%. Oil and gas stocks rose, WDS up 0.9% and uranium stocks mixed.In corporate news, AUB smashed 17.8% lower as the bid was withdrawn, TWE has cleared the decks for the new CEO with a $687m impairment on US goodwill. PME dipped 1.6% on another order, the ASX itself had issues this morning with its announcement platform falling 2.8% as many stocks were put into a trading halt.Nothing on the local economic front. Japan opened the door a little further on rate rises.Asia markets mixed, Japan down 1.8%, China up 0.8% And HK up 0.8%.10-year yields pushing to 4.56%.US futures – Dow down 267 Nasdaq down 273. The holiday season is over.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

The ASX 200 drifted lower today in listless trade finishing down 3 to 8614. Up 2.4% this week. Banks eased back with the Big Bank Basket down to $264.84 (-1.1%) as CBA dropped 1.3% and ANZ down 1.4%. SUN continued lower on storm damage. Other financials rose with NWL up 0.7% and GQG rising 2.0%. Industrials mostly better, WES up 0.6% with WOW up 3.2% as tech did well today. WTC rallied another 4.7%, though XRO down 0.7%. The All-Tech Index was up.In resources, gold miners once again the stars of the show. NEM up 2.0% and VAU gaining 2.7% as lithium stocks also did well. PLS up 2.5% and MIN up 2.2% Uranium stocks slightly better, but oil and gas stocks drifted down.In corporate news, CTD remain in suspension on accounting issues, WBC fell 0.8% on a NZ fine, and SGR unchanged on a cleansing prospectus to allow Bally shares to trade on market.Nothing on the economic front. Asia markets flat, Japan up 0.3%, China up 0.2% And HK up 0.1%.10-year yields pushing to 4.53%.US futures – Dow up 52, Nasdaq up 46.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

The ASX 200 gave up its strong start to close up 70 points to 8607 as the higher-than-expected CPI number took the top off things. It was a monthly number, so can be more volatile, but 3.8% was above RBA and economist's expectations. Banks were mixed with CBA steady as NAB and WBC dipped down. The Big Bank Basket rose to $266.89 (+0.1%). MQG had a good day, up 2.8% and wealth managers also pushed ahead, HUB up 1.9% and NWL up 1.3%. Insurers mildly positive, SUN up 0.8% with REITs mixed, GMG up 1.3% but elsewhere losses as bond yields pushed higher. SCG off 0.5% and CHC down 0.4%. Industrials were firm, WES up 1.9% with retail surprisingly strong, JBH up 1.0% and APE rising 1.4% with TPW crashing 32.3% on a trading update. Fast food also better, GYG and DMP doing well, Travel stocks also better, WEB up 3.4% and FLT gaining 2.3%. Tech stocks continue to stumble around, WTC down 1.2% and XRO off 0.1% with TNE falling 2.8%.  The All-Tech Index steady.In resources, iron ore stocks pushed higher, BHP up 2.0% and FMG up 2.4% with gold miners shrugging off early weakness to push higher, VAUDA did well, up 6.5% after the hedge book news, lithium stocks exploded, PLS up 7.2%and MIN up 3.0% with oil and gas better and small gains in uranium.In corporate news, Brookfield lobbed a bid for NSR at 286c. That is three bids this week. Debutante SEA rose 12.5% after a $20m IPO. EOS jumped 3.6% after a court penalty and DRO was up 8.5% again after its recent order.On the economic front, as above, the CPI was higher than expected at 3.8%. Chalmers and Bullock not happy.Asian markets were firm, although Taiwan in focus on fears of further Chinese aggression.10-year yields rose to 4.53% on CPI. AUD rose too.UK Budget today. European markets opening higher.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you.If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Far from the traditional image of industrials as an old economy, slow growth, low innovation sector,  many of these companies have changed beyond recognition in recent years. Equity investment  analyst Sebastian Siersted focuses on the European industrials space and outlines why he feels  businesses in this part of the world have an innovation head start on peers around the world and  are well insulated against any future tariff threat. #CapGroupGlobal This content is intended to highlight issues and be of a general nature. It should not be considered advice, an endorsement or a recommendation. Products mentioned are not an offer of the product and may not be available for sale or purchase in all countries. All investments have risk, and you may lose money. Past results are not a guarantee of future results. Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates. Investing outside the United States involves risks, such as currency fluctuations, periods of illiquidity and price volatility. These risks may be heightened in connection with investments in developing countries. For our latest insights, practice management ideas and more, subscribe to Capital Ideas at getcapitalideas.com. If you're based outside of the U.S., visit capitalgroup.com for Capital Group insights. Watch our latest podcast, Conversations with Mike Gitlin, on YouTube: https://bit.ly/CG-Gitlin-playlist This content is published by Capital Client Group, Inc., and copyrighted to Capital Group and affiliates, 2025, all rights reserved.  For more information, including our detailed disclosures, visit www.capitalgroup.com/global-disclosures. U.K. investors can view a glossary of technical terms here: https://bit.ly/49rdcFq To stay informed, follow us: LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/42uSYbm YouTube: https://bit.ly/4bahmD0 Follow Mike Gitlin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikegitlin/About Capital Group Capital Group was established in 1931 in Los Angeles, California, with the mission to improve people's lives through successful investing. With our clients at the core of everything we do, we offer carefully researched products and services to help them achieve their financial goals. Learn more: capitalgroup.com Join us: capitalgroup.com/about-us/careers.html Copyright ©2025 Capital Group

A quieter day as the ASX 200 rose 12 points to close at 8537 (0.1%). Banks were in the doldrums, entering official correction territory as BEN AML issues sunk the sector, CBA dropped 1.2% and NAB off 0.1% with the Big Bank Basket down to $266.70 (0.7%).  Other financials fell, Insurers eased, QBE off 1.5% and IAG falling 1.7%. REITs drifted lower, GMG down 0.7% and VCX off 1.6%. Industrials were a little weaker, WES fell 0.8% with WOW and COL easing back, tech slid, WTC off 1.5% and TNE showing a modest 1.6% gain. The All-Tech Index up 0.8%. Resources were generally positive. BHP rose 1.0% with RIO doing well, up 2.3% and FMG gaining 2.7%. Gold miners enjoying a big jump in AUD bullion, NST up 2.0% and EVN up 3.5% with the uranium sector slightly better and lithium fighting back to square. In corporate news, DRO rose 14.6% on a ‘new' EU order, RHC jumped 12.7% after reported revenue and earnings better than expected. WEB took flight after a 72% jump in TTV and SRG romped 6.4% higher on some new contracts. VAU rose 2.2% as it unwound most of its gold hedges. BEN dropped 7.4% on AML issues.In economic news, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose slightly. Highest reading since early September.Asian markets: Japan steady China up 1.3% and HK up 0.6%. European markets set to open higher again.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you.If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

A solid start to the week with the ASX 200 up 109 points to 8525 (1.3%). Across the board gains, with US futures pointing slightly higher too. Banks were better led by CBA up 1.2% and the Big Bank Basket up to $268.55 (1.1%). Financials were generally firm, even GQG up 0.6% and SOL rising 1.8% as it joined with Genesis to make a bid for MVF at 80c. Insurers rose, QBE up 1.4% and REITs did well, GMG up 2.1% and SGP rallying 2.3%. Industrials in the green, WES up 0.2% and ALL rising 0.5% with TCL up 2.0% and RMD up 2.2% better in healthcare. CSL too had a good day. PME rose 3.5% on new orders in America.  TLS rose1.9 % and REA up 1.9%. Resources were mostly better, BHP up 0.6% with its on/off bid for Anglo, RIO rose 1.1% and FMG up 1.9%. Lithium stocks gave back some recent gains, MIN down 3.2% and PLS down 3.6% with gold miners up, GMD up 1.3% and rare earths also doing better. Oil and gas stocks slid on crude falls, WDS down 1.3% and uranium stocks slightly better.In corporate news, QUB were approached by Macquarie with a 520c NBIO whilst MVF rose 44.3% on a 80c bid. MYX returned to trade after the Treasurer knocked back the Cossette bid. DRO rose 1.8% after some more news on the recent share sales and a new US MD. IRE soared 8.0% before a trading halt concerning continuous disclosure.Asian markets weaker with Japan closed for a holiday, China down 0.6% and HK up 1.4%.European markets set to open higher again.Want to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you.If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Parker Weil is Executive Managing Director, Co-Head of Global Corporate and Investment Banking Coverage at TD Securities (TDS), and sits on the CIB Executive Management Committee. He is responsible for overseeing the business' global strategy, managing key relationships, and leading high-profile transactions to drive business growth and market expansion.   Prior to this, Parker was the Co-Head of the Financial Sponsors Group which manages the firm's relationships with Private Equity firms, Family Offices, and Independent Sponsors. He has over 30 years of experience providing M&A advice and capital raising services to companies in the manufacturing, energy & power, and business services industries. Prior to TD Cowen, Parker served as Managing Director and head of the Industrials and Natural Resources investment banking group for Stifel Financial Corp. He previously held roles at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Salomon Brothers. Parker currently serves on the Board of Directors of 180 Degree Capital Corp. He has also served on Clean Energy Fuels and on the Board of Trustees of the Ridgewood Lacrosse Association.   Parker holds a BA in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania and an MBA from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Today we are joined by Nic Munoz.  He is someone worth listening to for a few reasons: 1. He has studied countless "Great" individuals throughout history. He is a wealth of information. 2. He has built a successful online brand, standing out in the competitive education space. 3. He has a clear understanding of his strengths, and the mission he wants to dedicate his life to. We hope you enjoy the conversation. Check out Nic's Website here: https://www.nicmunoz.com Read my thoughts every Tuesday: https://maxdepth.beehiiv.com/subscribe  00:38 Ernest Shackleton and Fridtjof Nansen 4:35 Early Lives 15:30 The Industrials vs Modern Founders 18:00 Making Humans Interplanetary 28:30 Interests, Intentions, and Effectiveness 38:15 Life as Art 1:00:00 Dostoyevsky

Andrew Almeida argues that the current market is not in a bubble and thinks the AI story will continue and trickle into other sectors. He likes Cisco (CSCO) and thinks investors should be holding the Mag 7. In addition, he likes midcap financials and industrials, anticipating lower rates for the former and AI-fueled investment in the latter. He sees a Santa Claus rally ahead and thinks investors should stay in the market rather than sit on the sidelines.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Tim is a co-founder and Managing Partner at Angeles Equity Partners.  Tim is responsible for overseeing all aspects of the firm's investment activities. Prior to co-founding Angeles Equity Partners in 2014, Tim co-led the Industrials vertical at The Gores Group with Jordan Katz. Tim was responsible for leading due diligence efforts, driving operational transformation and providing portfolio company oversight.  During his tenure at Gores, Tim served as the Chairman and/or Chief Executive Officer of numerous portfolio companies, and was a member of both the Management and Investment Committees.  Prior to Gores, Tim spent two years at Gateway, where he was responsible for the revenue and margin performance of Services, Software, and Enterprise Products in the Professional Business Unit. Prior to Gateway, Tim spent more than five years at Bain & Company, where he led numerous strategy, M&A and operational improvement engagements for corporate and private equity clients.  Before that, Tim served in various sales leadership and transformation positions at AT&T and began his career with IBM. Tim received a B.A. in Finance from Texas A&M University and an M.B.A. with a concentration in Entrepreneurial Finance from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

Today's guest is Emily Nguyen, Head of Industrials and Warp Speed at Palantir Technologies. Emily joins Emerj Editorial Director Matthew DeMello on the show to discuss the realities of AI adoption on the factory floor. Despite rapid advances in AI, many manufacturers still rely on legacy systems, siloed data, and even pen-and-paper processes. Emily shares insights from her 12 years at Palantir on how to bridge these gaps, connect critical functions, and build organizational readiness for AI. Want to share your AI adoption story with executive peers? Click emerj.com/expert2 for more information and to be a potential future guest on the 'AI in Business' podcast!

In this episode of Private Markets 360°, we welcome Scott Wolff, President and Managing Director at American Securities. With over two decades at the firm, Scott has played a pivotal role in shaping investment strategies, particularly within the industrial sector. Scott shares invaluable insights into the current deal environment, the innovative application of AI solutions to enhance operational efficiencies, and the importance of developing internal talent within portfolio companies. His extensive experience provides a unique perspective on the complexities and potential of private investments in today's market.   Credits:  Host/Author: Chris Sparenberg, Jocelyn Lewis Guests: Scott Wolff, American Securities Producer: Georgina Lee Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun www.spglobal.com www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence

Eric Criscuolo, Market Strategist at the NYSE, recaps a week defined by a sharp momentum meltdown across high-beta and speculative assets. Meme stocks, crypto miners, and quantum computing names saw steep declines before rebounding on news of potential government investment. Precious metals like gold and silver also dropped from recent highs amid overbought conditions and macro uncertainty. Despite the volatility, major indices stabilized, supported by strong earnings and sector rotation into Energy, Healthcare, and Industrials. The week closed with optimism as markets regained footing and investors looked ahead to key economic data and trade developments.

Listen to an interview with the keyboardist, composer, and computer music pioneer Brad Garton. He's best known for his work with the legendary West Lafayette, Indiana punk band Dow Jones and The Industrials, but Garton's work in music spans from progressive rock to experimental composition.  Brad Garton was raised in Columbus, Indiana, in a family with strong local ties. His father, Robert D. Garton, served for decades in the Indiana State Senate. Garton joined Dow Jones and The Industrials while studying pharmacology at Purdue University, earning the nickname “Mr. Science” for his innovative use of synthesizers and electronic sound effects.  Following his work in punk rock, Garton moved into the world of computer-assisted composition. He earned a Ph.D. in music composition from Princeton University in 1989, and later joined the faculty at Columbia University, where he served as Director of the Computer Music Center, formerly known as the Columbia-Princeton Electronic Music Center.

I went down AI rabbit holes yesterday testing out theories. Whether you pay for the tools or not, you should be using them. Here are the links to all the sales: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TRENDSPIDER - The best charting software EVER - just over $50/month with my link ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Episode 495 Last Friday' panic didn't last long.  I've been hoping for a pullback to buy the dip; but even if that doesn't happen, that just reiterates the strength of this market.  Bottom line, leadership remains strong and it's mostly focused on the ancillary AI trade.  What I call the convergence of Industrials and Tech. Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ------------------------------------------------------

Sabadell té 724 teulades d'amiant als polígons industrials

“Everyone's too greedy,” Chris Watling says, “the market is primed” for a pullback. “You never know what the spark is,” he adds. However, he would buy on a dip – but he warns traders to get an idea of the size of the dip before they get in. He expects a soft landing rather than a recession. Chris still likes U.S. large caps, but is also looking to emerging markets. On the other hand, he would sell gold in favor of industrial commodities.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This episode is sponsored by Brookfield In recent years, industrials and manufacturing companies have attracted relatively modest levels of interest from private equity managers. However, a reappraisal may now be overdue. In the US and other developed markets, trade tariffs and the need for more resilient supply chains are driving a resurgence in homegrown industrials. And given the advent of new technologies – including artificial intelligence – the opportunities around reimagining processes and finding valuable efficiencies could be huge. In this episode, Anuj Ranjan, CEO of Brookfield's private equity group, and David Bonasia, a managing partner and head of operations for the firm's Americas group, explain why industrials could offer excellent openings for PE investors. After all, companies in this space tend to avoid the drastic swings in valuations that have been problematic for investors in other sectors, they say. And with AI on hand to boost value creation efforts, there's plenty of upside to capture.

Across the industrials space, M&A activity ranges from ‘challenging yet steady' to highly robust. Following RBC's Global Industrials Conference 2025, this episode of Strategic Alternatives examines the mood of the sector. Joshua Rosenbaum, Global Head of Industrials, leads the specialists in assessing which sub-sectors are showing strength, and whether solid balance sheets and a potentially benign regulatory environment can set the stage for a broader wave of deals.

The SPX opened at an all-time high, as Kevin points to a bullish cross in the index adding support to the move. He's keeping an eye on the 6,530 as a support level based on past price action. After the PPI ticked lower, he urges investors to keep an eye on the industrials sector as it reaches a key technical point. Kevin later highlights levels to watch for the homebuilders group.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Under the time-tested market strategy, the Dow Theory, market strength requires Industrials and Transports to move in sync. While Industrials have held firm, persistent weakness in the Dow Transports is flashing warning signals. For many investors, that divergence suggests cracks beneath the surface of the broader market rally and raises questions about sustainability. Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services and publisher of HorizonInvestment.com, joins Andy Giersher on the Gains podcast to discuss the details. Make sure to subscribe to us on the Audacy app; leave us a review and rate us on Apple Music, too! Have a question for host Andy Giersher? Tweet him @Giersh. Never miss an episode from us! Hit the follow button on our Instagram and Twitter."

The dollar's bearish run is likely to affect U.S. equity markets. Michelle Weaver, our U.S. Thematic & Equity Strategist, and David Adams, our Head of G10 FX Strategy, discuss what investors should consider.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. David Adams: And I'm Dave Adams, head of G10 FX Strategy here at Morgan Stanley. Michelle Weaver: Our colleagues were recently on the show to talk about the impact of the weak dollar on European equities. And today we wanted to continue that conversation by looking at what a weak U.S. dollar means for the U.S. equity market.It's Thursday, July 17th at 2pm in London. Morgan Stanley has a bearish view on the U.S. dollar. And this is something our chief global FX strategist James Lord spoke about recently on the show. But Dave, I want to go over the outlook again, since Morgan Stanley has a really differentiated view on this. Do you think the dollar will continue to depreciate during the remainder of the year? David Adams: We do, and we do. We have been dollar bears this whole year, and it has been very out of consensus. But we do think the weakness will continue and our forecasts remain one of the most bearish on the street for the dollar. The dollar has had its worst first half of the year since 1973, and the dollar index has fallen about 10 percent year to date, but we think we're at the intermission rather than the finale. The second act for the dollar weakening trend should come over the next 12 months as U.S. interest rates and U.S. growth rates converge to that of the rest of the world. And FX hedging of existing U.S. assets held by foreign investors adds further negative risk premium to the dollar. The result is that we're looking for yet another 10 percent drop in the dollar by the end of next year. Michelle Weaver: That's really interesting and a differentiated view for Morgan Stanley. When I think about one of the key themes that we've been following this year, it's the multipolar world or a shift away from globalization to more localized spheres of influence. This is an important element to the dollar story.How have tariffs impacted currency and your outlook? David Adams: Tariffs play a key role in this framework. Tariffs have a positive impact on inflation, but a negative impact on U.S. growth. But the inflation impact comes faster and the negative impact on growth and employment that comes a bit later. This puts the Fed in a really tough spot and it's why our economists are pretty out of consensus in calling for both no cuts this year, and a much faster and deeper pace of cuts in 2026. The results for me in FX land is that the market is underestimating just how low the Fed will go and just how low U.S. rates will go, in general. Tariffs play a big role in helping to generate this rate convergence, and rate differentials are a fundamental driver of currencies. The more that U.S. rates are going to fall, the more likely it is that the dollar keeps falling too. Michelle Weaver: Tariffs have certainly impacted heavily on our view for the U.S. equity market and it's something that no asset class is not impacted by really. Given the volatility and the magnitude of the move we've seen this year, are foreign investors hedging more? David Adams: We do think they've started hedging more, but the bulk of the move is really ahead of us. Foreign investors own a massive amount of U.S. assets. European investors alone own $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and stocks, and that's only about a quarter of total foreign ownership of U.S. assets. Now when foreign investors buy U.S. assets, they have to sell their currency and buy the dollar. But at some point, you're going to have to bring that money back, so you're going to have to sell the dollar and buy back your home currency again. If the dollar rises over this period, you've made a gain, congratulations. But if it falls, you've made a loss. Now a lot of foreign investors will hedge this currency risk, and they'll use instruments like forwards and options to do so. But in the case of the U.S., we found that a lot of foreign investors really choose not to hedge this exposure, particularly on the equity side. And this reflects both a view that the dollar would appreciate; so, they want to take that gain. But it also reflects the dollar's negative correlation to equities. So, what's changing now? Well, a lot of investors are starting to rethink this decision and add those FX hedges, which really means dollar selling. Now, there's a lot of factors motivating their decision to hedge. One, of course is price. If U.S. rates are going to converge meaningfully to the rest of the world – like we expect – that flattens out the forward curve and makes those forwards cheaper to buy to hedge. But the breakdown in correlations that we've seen more broadly, the uptick in policy volatility and uncertainty, and the sell off in the dollar that we've already seen year to date, have all increased the relative benefit of FX hedging. Now, Michelle, I often get asked the question, that's a nice story, but is hedging actually picking up? And the answer is yes. The initial data suggests that hedging has picked up in the second quarter, but because of the size of U.S. asset holdings and given how much it was initially unhedged, we could be talking about a significant long-term flow. We have a lot more to go from here. Michelle Weaver: Yeah. David Adams: We estimated that just over half of Europe's $8 trillion holdings are unhedged. And if hedge ratios pick up even a little bit, we could be talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in flow. And that's just from Europe. But Michelle, I wanted to ask you. What do you think a weaker dollar means for U.S. companies? Michelle Weaver: The weaker dollar is a substantial underappreciated tailwind for U.S. multinational earnings, and this is because these companies sell products overseas and then get paid in foreign currency. So, when the dollar's down, converting that foreign revenue back into dollars, gives them a nice boost, something that domestic only companies aren't going to benefit from. And this is called the translation effect. Recently we've seen earnings revisions breadth, essentially a measure of whether analysts are getting more optimistic or pessimistic start to turn up after hitting typical cycle lows. And based on our house view for the dollar, there's likely more upside ahead based on that relationship for revisions over the next year. David Adams: Interesting. Interesting. And is this something you're hearing about from companies on things like earnings calls? Michelle Weaver: No, this dynamic isn't being highlighted much on earnings calls. Typically, companies talk about foreign exchange effects when the dollar's strengthening and provides a headwind for corporate earnings. But when we're in the reverse scenario like we are now with the dollar weakening and getting a boost to earnings, we tend to not hear as much discussion, which is why I called this an underappreciated tailwind. And according to your team's forecast, we still have a substantial amount of weakening to go and thus a substantial amount of benefit for U.S. companies to go. David Adams: Yeah, that makes sense. And who do you think benefits most from this dynamic? Are there any sectors or investment styles that look particularly good here? Michelle Weaver: Mm hmm. So generally, it's the large cap companies that stand to gain the most from this dynamic, and that's because they do more business overseas. If we look at foreign revenue exposure for different indices, around 40 percent of the S & P 500's revenue comes from outside the U.S., while that's just 22 percent for the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. But the impact of a weaker dollar isn't the same across the board. Foreign revenue exposure and earnings revision sensitivity to the dollar vary quite a bit, when we look at the sector and the industry group level. From a foreign revenue exposure perspective, Tech Materials and Industrials have the highest foreign revenue exposure and thus can benefit a lot from that dynamic we've been talking about. When we look from an earnings revisions perspective, Capital Goods, Materials, Software and Tech Hardware have the most earnings revisions, sensitivity to a weaker dollar, so they could also benefit there. David Adams: So, I guess this brings us to the million-dollar question that all of our listeners are asking. What do we do with this information? What does this mean for investors? Michelle Weaver: So as the dollar, continues to weaken, investors should keep a close eye on the industries and companies poised to benefit the most – because in this multipolar world, currency dynamics are not just a macro backdrop, but an important driver of earnings and equity performance.Dave, thank you for taking the time to talk. And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Stocks hold steady as tariff uncertainty continues. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains how policy deferrals, earnings resilience and forward guidance are driving the market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why stocks remain so resilient. It's Monday, July 14th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Why has the equity market been resilient in the face of new tariff announcements? Well first, the import cost exposure for S&P 500 industries is more limited given the deferrals and exemptions still in place like the USMCA compliant imports from Mexico. Second, the higher tariff rates recently announced on several trading partners are generally not perceived to be the final rates as negotiations progress. I continue to believe these tariffs will ultimately end up looking like a 10 percent consumption tax on imports that generate significant revenue for the Treasury. And finally, many companies pre-stocked inventory before the tariffs were levied and so the higher priced goods have not yet flowed through the cost of goods sold. Furthermore, with the market's tariffs concerns having peaked in early April, the market is looking forward and focused on the data it can measure. On that score, the dramatic v-shaped rebound in earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500 has been a fundamental tailwind that justifies the equity rally since April in the face of continued trade and macro uncertainty. This gauge is one of our favorites for predicting equity prices and it troughed at -25 percent in mid-April. It's now at +3 percent. The sectors with the most positive earnings revisions breadth relative to the S&P 500 are Financials, Industrials and Software — three sectors we continue to recommend due to this dynamic. The other more recent development helping to support equities is the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. While this Bill does not provide incremental fiscal spending to support the economy or lower the statutory tax rate, it does lower the cash earnings tax rates for companies that spend heavily on both R&D and Capital Goods.Our Global Tax Team believes we could see cash tax rates fall from 20 percent today back toward the 13 percent level that existed before some of these benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expired in 2022. This benefit is also likely to jump start what has been an anemic capital spending cycle for corporate America, which could drive both higher GDP and revenue growth for the companies that provide the type of equipment that falls under this category of spending. Meanwhile, the Foreign-Derived Intangible Income is a tax incentive that benefits U.S. companies earning income from foreign markets. It was designed to encourage companies to keep their intellectual property in the U.S. rather than moving it to countries with lower tax rates. This deduction was scheduled to decrease in 2026, which would have raised the effective tax rate by approximately 3 percent. That risk has been eliminated in the Big Beautiful Bill. Finally, the Digital Service Tax imposed on online companies that operate overseas may be reduced. Late last month, Canada announced that it would rescind its Digital Service Tax on the U.S. in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the U.S. This would be a major windfall for online companies and some see the potential for more countries, particularly in Europe, to follow Canada's lead as trade negotiations with the U.S. continue. Bottom line, while uncertainty around tariffs remains high, there are many other positive drivers for earnings growth over the next year that could more than offset any headwinds from these policies. This suggests the recent rally in stocks is justified and that investors may not be as complacent as some are fearing. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!