Podcasts about industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2026 4:36

After a historic rally and a sharp correction, South Korea's equity market may be approaching a turning point. Our Chief Korea Equity Strategist, Joon Seok, explains that the next cycle will need stronger foundations and more sectors joining in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Joon Seok, Morgan Stanley's Chief Korea Equity Strategist.Today: Why Korea's equity market may be moving from a sharp reset toward a broader and more sustainable recovery.It's Tuesday, August 18th, at 2pm in Seoul.South Korea's stock market has delivered the kind of ride that makes even long-term investors check their phones more often than they would like. The KOSPI surged 101 percent in the first half of 2026, then fell more than 38 percent from its peak by July 30th. But the market now appears to be moving toward a more durable recovery.The first reason is valuation. Take the KOSPI's forward price-to-earnings ratio, which compares share prices with expected profits over the next year. It fell below five times, its lowest level since 2004. Our capitulation index also dropped to minus 2.53. This index combines market momentum with the breadth of the sell-off, so it helps show whether fear has become widespread. Readings below minus two have often marked troughing territory outside the major crises.The second reason is that forced selling appears to be easing. Now, we have seen leverage as a double-edged sword as leverage helped fuel the rally, but it also made the decline sharper as investors were forced to cut positions. Assets in leveraged single-stock ETFs have fallen about 70 percent from their June peak, and margin lending has also come down. Now, hedge funds have completed roughly three quarters of a typical risk-reduction cycle. Put simply, the most intense selling may already be behind us.Still, a healthier recovery needs more than a rebound by the tech sector. Tech remains central because AI infrastructure continues to drive demand for advanced memory. Morgan Stanley Research expects global spending by large tech platforms to reach 805 billion U.S. dollars in [20]26 and 1.2 trillion dollars in [20]27. That creates a lot of opportunity – but it also keeps markets sensitive to any change in capital spending, chip pricing or competition.The broader Korean economy offers support. Real GDP growth has exceeded 3 percent for two consecutive quarters, up sharply from 1.1 percent in 2025. Full-year growth is now likely to land in the mid-3 percent range; and generally, Korea's growth is around 2 percent. Importantly, the improvement is spreading beyond exports. Consumption is recovering, tourism has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and the government is targeting 23 million foreign tourists this year.There are trade-offs. Inflation reached 3.2 percent in June, and the Bank of Korea raised its policy rate to 2.75 percent. A measured hiking cycle could take rates to 3.5 percent by the first quarter of 2027. Higher rates may help financial-sector earnings, but they also raise financing costs for households and businesses.The source of market liquidity is changing as well. Domestic retail investors drove much of the first-half rally, but tighter leverage rules mean foreign investors are likely to determine the next leg higher. Corporate-governance reforms and better capital management could also encourage broader international participation.We continue to see a path toward a KOSPI target of 9,000 by June 2027, with a bull case of 10,500 and a bear case of 5,500. The next phase should be steadier and more balanced. Industrials, financials, healthcare, communications, and consumer staples should also contribute alongside technology.Korea still has room to run. But the stronger signal may be quality – meaning earnings resilience, disciplined capital management and broader participation. The stock market's initial rally was fueled by speed and concentrated leadership. The next phase will require wider and more durable support.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

From the Mag 7 to Industrials: How Market Leadership Is Changing

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2026 6:30

Josh Jamner discusses the market outlook as volatility remains subdued and AI continues to drive investor optimism. He explains why market leadership could broaden beyond the Mag 7 and highlights opportunities in industrials, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary stocks. Jamner also says second-half earnings and moderating consumer spending will be key themes to watch.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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The Return of Value Investing

Money On Tap

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2026 56:01

Value investing spent fifteen years out of fashion. This year, it's beating the index almost everywhere you look — energy up roughly 20%, industrials 17%, healthcare 15%, utilities 14%, financials 12% — while the S&P 500 sits near 8–9%. This week we dig into the return of value investing and what the greatest investors of all time can teach us right now. On this week's Money On Tap, we go deep on the tradition that runs from Benjamin Graham through Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger: buying good businesses at sensible prices, collecting the dividends they pay you, and letting compounding do the heavy lifting. We explain why value went dark from roughly 2009 to 2025 — cheap money was rocket fuel for growth stocks — and why higher interest rates have flipped the script: growth borrows, value pays you. We connect the rotation to worn-out tech traders taking gains, the 401(k) flywheel, and the demographic engine underneath it all — roughly 10,000 baby boomers reaching retirement age every day, all needing present-day income. Plus Pepsi's 53-year dividend streak and a candid conversation about when mutual funds and ETFs stop making sense and direct stock ownership starts. What you'll learn:The sector scoreboard: energy ~20%, industrials ~17%, healthcare ~15%, utilities ~14%, financials ~12%, staples ~9% — vs. the S&P 500 near 8–9%Graham vs. Buffett: buy cheap and sell at fair value, or buy outstanding businesses and hold for decadesMunger's rule: "The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting"Why low interest rates buried value for fifteen years — and why higher rates brought it backMargin of safety: the idea that protects you when you're wrongWhy money is rotating into companies that pay you to own them — dividends over promisesThe demographic engine: 10,000 boomers a day retiring and the demand for present-day incomeThe compounding story: Buffett's American Express dividends now exceed his entire original investment — every yearWhen funds stop making sense: the case for direct stock ownership at higher net worthPlus Money In The News:SpaceX says it's coming for AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile customers — but does satellite cell service actually work?The Treasury has refunded $100 billion in invalidated tariff revenue to companies — and none of it is coming back to youA tale of two housing markets: luxury demand surges while starter-home buyers finally see inventoryWant a white paper on this week's topic? Email us at info@yourmoneyontap.com and we'll send it over. Read our most recent Blog Post on this topic here: https://www.fmgwebsites.com/d772de05-9833-44e4-9676-f510f85cef74/blog/the-return-of-value-investing-why-boring-profitable-companies-are-winninSchedule a free consultation: https://app.greminders.com/t/9f3ce72e/initialconsultaBrowse the full Money On Tap library: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/money-on-tap Contact UsPhone: 855-226-8551Email: info@yourmoneyontap.comOffice: 116 South River Road, Bedford, NH 03110Web: brayshawfinancial.comSecurities and advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. All other services offered through Brayshaw Financial Group, LLC are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Osaic Wealth, Inc. and Brayshaw Financial Group do not provide tax or legal advice. Index and sector figures cited are approximate year-to-date values as of the air date, drawn from sources believed reliable, and subject to change. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.What is value investing and why is it working again in 2026?Value investing means buying strong, profitable, often dividend-paying companies at sensible prices and holding them patiently — the approach built by Benjamin Graham and made famous by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. It struggled while near-zero interest rates favored growth stocks, but higher rates flipped the equation: in 2026, value sectors like energy (~20%), industrials (~17%), and healthcare (~15%) are outpacing the S&P 500's roughly 8–9%. The appeal is simple — instead of borrowing to chase growth, these companies pay shareholders real income today, and reinvested dividends compound over decades.

End of Day Report – Friday 7 August: ASX 200 down 8 - Closed up 3.2% for the week - US futures mixed - Europe on holidays - NFP tonight.

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2026 11:50

The ASX 200 clawed back early losses to close down 8 on the day at 9,264 points (0.1%). Up 3.2% for the week. It was a mixed picture across the market as investors waited for the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report tonight and watched for further developments in the Middle East.The banks slipped back, with CBA down 1.0% and WBC down 1.6%, while MQG also eased after recently hitting record highs, falling 1.1%. The Big Bank Basket fell 1.1% to $295.90. Financials were generally softer, with the sector under pressure and ZIP also slipping 3.4% following XYZ's results. REITs were mixed, with GMG down 1.0%, but CHC up 0.76%. Industrials were largely flat, with SGH down 1.25% and QAN down 1.12%, while the retail sector barely moved. Healthcare stocks took a breather, with RMD falling 8.3% on concerns around margins and inflation pressures. Technology stocks had a better session, with WTC up 4.3% and XRO up 1.5%, possibly receiving support from the 32% climb in Atlassian after its results were released after hours.Resources were once again the place to be, although the iron ore names were mixed. RIO gained 0.8%, while FMG slipped 2.3%. Lithium stocks, which have been heavily sold off for some time, finally found some buyers, with PLS rallying 6.5% and LTR also pushing higher by 9.3%. Gold miners were slightly firmer, with NST up 2.3% and NEM up 2.7%, while oil and gas stocks continued to perform well. Coal stocks also improved, alongside uranium names. PDN rose 3.3%, while NXG also enjoyed a better session, gaining 2.2%.In corporate news, JHX added 5.8% following an increase in quarterly income, while NCK slipped 0.7% despite UK operations helping support its results. AQZ returned from a trading halt and rose 6.1% after providing clarification around the Qantas transaction. There was little locally on the economic front, although investors digested the latest Chinese export and import data.Asian markets were mixed, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.2%, Hong Kong up 0.4%, China up 1.3%, and Korea off 0.6%. US futures were mixed with the Dow down 67 points and the Nasdaq up 72. US non-farm payrolls in focus.Marcus Today – Daily Market Insights Marcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise. If you'd like to go further: Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcast Join Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offer MT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcast Principles – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast — Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

End of Day Report – Thursday 6 August: ASX 200 up 44 to new record - Gold shines - AMP jumps - REA and NWS Results - US futures drifting

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2026 13:13

The ASX 200 put in another solid day, rising 44 points to 9,272 (0.5%), as the banks and gold stocks shone. We did see higher levels earlier in the session, but some of the enthusiasm was sapped by a fall in the Kospi, while BHP and RIO finished slightly mixed. CBA rose 0.9% and NAB gained 0.4%, with financials generally firmer. The Big Bank Basket rose to $299.21 (+0.6%) Insurers slipped, however, with QBE down 1.0%, while the REITs also eased, with GMG down 1.7% and SCG off 1.3%. Healthcare continued its recent strength, with CSL up 1.3% and RMD rising 0.3%.Technology had a mixed session, with WTC falling 1.5% and XRO gaining 0.4% as the sector paused for breath after recent gains. Industrials were generally firmer, while retailers had a good day, led by JBH, up 2.9%, and HVN, which rose 1.2%.In the resource sector, the gold price pushed higher again, dragging the miners with it. EVN rose 3.8% and NST added 3.2%. There was little to report in lithium, with the sector drifting slightly higher. Uranium stocks eased modestly, while coal stocks were stronger, with WHC up 2.5%. Oil and gas stocks were little changed as investors continued to wait for further developments in the Iranian talks.In corporate news, REA rose 3.4% after posting an 11% increase in revenue. AMP also had a strong session after announcing a 57% jump in half-year profit and unveiling a $150m share buyback. Meanwhile, BPT fell after reporting a 21% decline in underlying FY profit, while AQZ surged 30% before entering a trading halt as it renegotiates contracts with QAN. Nothing on the economic front today.Asian markets were weaker, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.99%, Hong Kong down 1.7%, China down 0.8%, and Korea off 4.6%. US futures were flat with the Dow up 118 points and the Nasdaq down 83. Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

End of Day Report – Wednesday 5 August: ASX 200 hits record close - Banks subdued - Resources rally hard - Yields fall - Tech rallies again - Gold jumps.

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2026 13:16

The ASX 200 climbed to a record high today, up 79 pts to 9225 (0.9%) as buyers returned to the resources sector.The rally was led by BHP, up 3.3%, and RIO, up 2.3%. We also saw strong buying in LYC, which gained 4.8%, while the gold sector rallied across the board as the bullion price pushed higher on hopes of a resolution to the Iran conflict. NST rose 5.5%, EVN gained 6.0%, and BSL also finished up 3.0%.The oil and gas sector moved lower, led by WDS, down 3.5%, and STO, which fell 2.2%. Uranium stocks pushed higher, with PDN up 4.2% and DYL rising 3.9%. Lithium stocks posted modest gains, with LTR bouncing 2.9% from its recent lows.The banks eased on valuation concerns, with CBA down 1.6% and ANZ off 0.7%, leaving the Big Bank Basket down at $297.30 (-1.1%). MQG hit fresh record highs, while the broader financial sector also performed well, with ZIP up 7.8% and PNI jumping 8.4% following better-than-expected results.Industrials also enjoyed a solid session, with BXB up 1.3%, QAN rising 2.7% on the back of lower oil prices, and SGH up 1.9%, continuing its recent strength. The technology sector rallied strongly once again, with WTC up 5.8%, XRO gaining 2.1% and 360 rising 3.7%. Healthcare also had a good day, with CSL up 1.2% and RMD gaining 2.7%.In corporate news, EDV fell 1.4% after results showed the group flagging a $311m hit and profit down 14.7%. LNW posted better-than-expected quarterly results, and NEU jumped 18.2% on an update on Daybue sales. In economic news, China's services activity expanded at its weakest pace in nearly two yearsAsian markets were firm, with the Nikkei 225 up 3.5%, Hong Kong unchanged, China up 1.6%, and Korea up 4.4%. US futures were firmer, with the Dow up 192 points and the Nasdaq up 102 points. European markets are set to open higher. Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Tuesday 4 August: ASX 200 soars 127 pts to Five Month High - Banks shine - Gold better - Industrials and Healthcare ahead - Tech Roars

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Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2026 13:16

The ASX 200 climbed to a five-month high, rising 127 points to 9,146 (1.4%), as the banking sector took off once again. CBA rose 1.6% and NAB gained 3.0%, with the Big Bank Basket climbing to $300.56 (+1.4%). MQG added 3.1%, while other financials also performed well, with ASX up 2.0% and IFT rising 1.3%.Industrials also enjoyed a strong session, with SGH up 2.5% and BXB gaining 1.9%. The healthcare sector was particularly buoyant, led by CSL, which rose 3.6%. REITs were also solid, with CHC up 2.2% and SGP adding 1.4%.Technology stocks continued to build on recent gains, with XRO up 3.5% and WTC rising 3.1%. Even the data centre sector joined the rally, with NXT up 4.2%.Resources were firmer across the board. LYC rose 6.6%, while the lithium sector also enjoyed a better day, with PLS up 4.9% and MIN gaining 2.8%. The iron ore majors edged higher despite softer iron ore prices in Singapore trading, while gold miners also had a good session, with NST up 2.1% and NEM rising 2.1%. Iron ore minres were better mostly, FMG up 1.6% and RIO up 1.7%.We also saw buying in the copper sector, with CSC up 3.5% and SFR gaining 3.9%. Oil and gas stocks moved higher, led by WDS, up 1.4%, while uranium and coal stocks were also firmer.In corporate news, we got a taste of what reporting season has in store, with CCP missing expectations and falling heavily, down 7.0%. MGH enjoyed a strong session after announcing a major contract with Firmus, rising 8.1%. We also saw solid gains in DRO following a substantial shareholder notice.On the local economic front, household spending surged ahead of expectations in June, helped by strong EV sales.Asian markets were mixed, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.1%, Hong Kong down 0.8%, China up 1.3%, and Korea off 0.35%. US futures were firmer, with the Dow up 118 points and the Nasdaq up 147 points. European markets are set to open around 0.4% higher. Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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242. Data centers: AI's power problem is energy's opportunity

Thematic Intelligence

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2026 26:40

In this episode, Ally and Ethan join us to talk about data centers. They discuss the infrastructure and power needs ofthe growing data center build out and highlight solutions companies can use to combat these problems. To get a preview of our new Data Centerstheme: https://hs.globaldata.com/is-your-business-ready-for-the-data-center-boom Find us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/globaldatastrategicintelligence/ To find out more about Strategic Intelligence: https://globaldata-26632421.hs-sites-eu1.com/themes Host: Holly Anness-Bradshaw (Senior Analyst, Strategic Intelligence)Guests: Ally Kirk (Consulting Director, Industrials, GlobalData) and Ethan Tsai (Engagement Manager, GlobalData)

The Healthiest Bull Market Nobody is Talking About

Money On Tap

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2026 56:01

Your S&P 500 fund says 7% — but over 300 of its stocks are beating the index. This week we dig into the massive broadening of the market that almost nobody in the financial media is talking about, and why we think it's the healthiest thing to happen to this bull market in years.For three years, seven stocks did all the talking. This year, the other 493 are answering. On this week's Money On Tap, we walk through the numbers behind the broadening: the Magnificent Seven still make up roughly a third of every dollar in a cap-weighted S&P 500 index fund — which is exactly why so many statements look stuck at 7% while the equal-weight S&P runs above 14%, the Russell 1000 Value nears 20%, and healthcare and industrials each post roughly 24% year to date. We connect it to the 100-year-old Dow theory (industry makes goods, transportation moves them — and both are near highs), unpack the defensive-stock paradox (staples rallying while nobody calls a recession), revisit the historical pattern from 1983, 1995, 2003, 2013, and 2020 where tech blows out and then leadership broadens — and get practical about what a broadening market rewards most: rebalancing, equal-weight exposure, sector and international diversification, and knowing what your 401(k) actually owns.What you'll learn:Why a third of every S&P 500 index-fund dollar sits in just seven stocks — and what that's done to your return this yearThe breadth numbers: 300+ stocks beating the index, roughly seven in ten S&P names up on the yearThe sector scoreboard: healthcare ~24%, industrials ~24%, staples ~11.3%, financials ~9.7%, utilities ~7.6%Why money is rotating, not leaving — and why that's the opposite of how crashes startDow theory at 100+: what industrials and transports near highs historically signalThe defensive-stock paradox: staples leading without a recession call anywhere in sightThe rebalancing playbook: taking profits without apology, calendar discipline, equal-weight funds (11.9% vs 10.9% over 20 years)How to broaden with new contributions instead of selling your winnersTarget-date fund warnings: layered fees, hidden allocations, and no way to rebalanceWhy this is not a reason to dump technology — proportion, not exitPlus Money In The News:A property-management company bets $200K on AI to make the trades more efficient — filling a labor gap instead of cutting jobsApple set for its strongest June-quarter sales growth in five years — flat iPhone pricing, a $5 trillion moment, and sitting out the AI arms raceThe 100-year-old Dow theory says this market isn't done climbingWant a white paper on this week's topic? Email us at info@yourmoneyontap.com and we'll send it over.Read the companion blog: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/blogSchedule a free consultation: https://app.greminders.com/t/9f3ce72e/initialconsultaBrowse the full Money On Tap library: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/money-on-tapContact UsPhone: 855-226-8551Email: info@yourmoneyontap.comOffice: 116 South River Road, Bedford, NH 03110Web: brayshawfinancial.comSecurities and advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. All other services offered through Brayshaw Financial Group, LLC are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Osaic Wealth, Inc. and Brayshaw Financial Group do not provide tax or legal advice. Index and sector figures cited are approximate year-to-date values as of the air date, drawn from sources believed reliable, and subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.Why is my S&P 500 index fund underperforming the market in 2026?Because the S&P 500 is cap-weighted: roughly a third of every dollar in the index sits in just seven stocks — the Magnificent Seven — and several of them are having an off year. Meanwhile the equal-weight S&P 500 is up more than double the cap-weighted index, and over 300 individual S&P stocks are beating it, led by healthcare and industrials near 24%. The fix isn't leaving the market — it's diversification: equal-weight exposure, sector funds, and a rebalancing discipline that trims concentration back to your plan.

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End of Day Report – Wednesday 29 July: ASX 200 jumps 91 - CPI better than expected - CSL soars to the Horizon - RIO stuns - Fed tonight.

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2026 13:51

The ASX 200 put in another solid performance, rising 91 points to 9039, as iron ore results cheered the resource sector and industrials continued to push higher. The market also took comfort from the latest CPI reading, which came in below expectations and should ease some of the pressure on the RBA to raise rates on 11 August. The banks gave back some early gains, the Big Bank Basket at $295.53 up 0.1%, with ANZ up 1.37%, while other financials were mixed as ASX rallied 1.43%. AMP was showing a clean pair of heels, rising 2.34%. REITs also enjoyed a good session as bond yields fell, with CHC up 2.96% and SGP gaining 4.96%.Industrials also had a strong day, with retailers rallying on rate-cut expectations. JBH rose 4.67% and LOV also found some friends, up 7.88%. The technology sector performed well, with WTC up 2.33% and XRO rising 4.11%. REA, CAR and SEK also enjoyed solid gains, while TLX climbed 0.21%. Both WOW and COL had good sessions, while healthcare was especially firm. CSL rose 7.15% on encouraging news surrounding its Horizon 2 manufacturing technology, and RMD rallied 3.59%.Resources painted a more mixed picture. BHP rose 1.36%, while RIO rallied on the back of better-than-expected results and a stronger-than-expected dividend. FMG also pushed higher. One casualty was LTR, which fell 7.92% following a disappointing quarterly update. Gold miners were mixed, with NST up 2.22% and NEM flat. Rare earths continued to struggle, with LYC falling heavily once again. Oil and gas stocks edged higher as tensions in the Middle East escalated and the oil price firmed, with WDS up 1.39% and STO flat. Uranium stocks were mixed.In corporate news, there was no shortage of quarterly updates. CSL responded strongly to progress on Horizon 2. PPT rejected a revised takeover offer from EQT, while MIN delivered a solid June quarter. LTR ended the June quarter with $561m in cash, although production, costs and guidance disappointed the market. WDS also tightened its FY26 production guidance to 174–185mmboe.In economic news, headline inflation slowed to 0.6% in June, down from 1.4% in April, with annual inflation easing to 3.8%, below expectations and down from 4.0%.Asian markets were weaker, Nikkei 225 down 1.5%, HK up 1.56% and China down 0.84% - Korea down 5.98%. US futures weaker, Dow down 58 points Nasdaq down 137. .European markets set to open lower. Fed focus.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Tuesday 28 July: ASX 200 up 54 - Solid turnaround - Banks and Tech lead - Gold slips - Oil and gas better - KOSPI down nearly 11%

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2026 13:51

The ASX 200 shrugged off early losses to close 54 points higher at 8948 (0.6%), with the banks proving resilient yet again. CBA rose 1.5% and NAB gained 0.7%, taking the Big Bank Basket to $295.23 (+1.3%) Other financials also had a better day, with HUB up 1.8% and ASX rising 1.5%.REITs also performed well, with GMG up 0.2% and SGP gaining 2.7%. Industrials were firm, led by a rebound in the tech sector, with XRO up 3.7%, WTC up 8.1% and TNE rising 3.3%. TLS had a good day, up 1.6%, while retailers also performed well, with JBH up 3.3% and WES gaining 2.1%. Healthcare was also in the pink, with CSL up 2.7% and RMD rising 3.4%.It was a different story in resources, with BHP down 1.2% and RIO falling 2.5%. Gold stocks gave back some of yesterday's gains, with GMD down 1.1% and EVN easing 1.8%. Lithium stocks remained under pressure, with PLS down 4.9% and MIN falling 2.9%.Oil and gas stocks enjoyed a better session, with WDS rallying 2.8% and STO up 1.2%, although coal stocks continued to drag. Uranium stocks were also back under pressure as part of the AI trade unwind, with PDN down 4.4% and DYL falling 2.2%.In corporate news, DRO fell 13.2% after warning that margins would come under pressure. WEB surged 17.1% following plans to buy back up to $90m of its shares and a stronger forecast for first-half earnings. ILU had a good day despite warning that Balranald production would be lower than previously expected, while WHC eased 4.6% after finishing the year at the top end of production guidance.In economic news, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 4.4 points last week to 71.2.Asian markets were weaker, Nikkei 225 down 4.4%, HK down 0.1% and China down 2.8% - Korea down 10.4%. US futures mixed Dow up 4 Nasdaq down 290Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

Het is China gelukt: ze bouwen ASML-machines

Beurswatch | BNR

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2026 22:53

BESI, ASML, ASM, alledrie gaan ze onderuit na een verhaal van The Information. Volgens de peperdure techsite is het nu echt zover: China is begonnen met de productie van eigen DUV-chipmachines. Een Chinees staatsbedrijf zou deze gemiddeld geavanceerde chipmachines kunnen leveren, een product waar ASML nu nog nagenoeg alleenheerser op is. Maar ja, we horen wel vaker dat China enigszins hoogwaardige chips kan produceren, terwijl de productieprocessen nagenoeg altijd inefficiënt blijken te zijn. Oftewel: duur, verspillend en amper concurrerend. Waarom beleggers dan toch in paniek raken en of dat wel terecht is, bespreken we deze aflevering. Een aflevering die sowieso vol zit met China. Want chipbedrijf CXMT kreeg het voor elkaar: van de ene op de andere dag het grootste beursbedrijf van China worden. CXMT schoot na de beursgang vannacht met meer dan 500 procent omhoog. Het bedrijf produceert geheugenchips en is daarmee een concurrent van Samsung en SK Hynix. Of het bedrijf die twee ook serieus kan beconcurreren, gaan we ook voor je uitzoeken. En het lijkt de Chinashow wel: we hebben het ook over de soort-van-Chinese bank HSBC, de Hong Kong & Shanghai Banking Corporation. Dankzij hun zetel en beursnotering in Londen, is het een Europees beursbedrijf. En sinds kort zelfs Europa's op-een-na grootste beursbedrijf, achter ASML. Ze naderen een beurswaarde van 300 miljard dollar. Hoe ze dat voor elkaar kregen, en waarom ze zo belachelijk veel winstgevender zijn dan ING en ABN, gaan we je ook vertellen. Hoor je ook Welke nieuwe horde in de overnamesoap van Warner Bros door Paramount nu weer krijgt Hoe Nvidia de koers van andere chipbedrijven omhoog helpt Waarom president Trump de beursgang van She-in in de weg zit Te gast: Robbert Manders, van het Antaurus Europe Fund BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Je hoort hem ook in de BNR-podcast Moerdijk: dorp van de rekening. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en is redacteur bij de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Het is China gelukt: ze bouwen ASML-machines

AEX Factor | BNR

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2026 22:53

End of Day Report – Monday 27 July: ASX 200 jumps 122 - US futures solid - Banks and Resources firm - Even Tech jumps - Big week in US ahead.

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2026 12:57

The ASX 200 started the week on a strong note, up 122 points to 8,894 +1.4%), as most sectors of the market rallied hard, with the exception of oil and gas, as Trump's threat of a massive attack on Iran was wound back and US futures rallied. The banking sector was once again solid, with CBA up 1.2% and ANZ up 1.2%, with the Big Bank Basket at $291.58 (+1.2%). MQG also rallied again, and other financials were back in the green. Insurers also rose, led by QBE up 1.4%. The REIT sector was also good today, led by GMG up 3.2% and CHC up 2.8%. Industrials too had a significantly better day, with the tech sector firing for a change: XRO up 6.0% and WTC up 7.0%, with TNE rallying too, along with REA, CAR and SEK. TLS had a good day. QAN brushed off the latest Alan Joyce novel and rose 3.6% on lower oil prices. Meanwhile, resources had a solid day: BHP up 2.1%, RIO up 2.2%, and the gold miners also doing well today. We had some corporate action with EVN bidding for CNB in a script bid. VAU also had a good day, together with CMM, on a resource upgrade. Even the lithium stocks chimed in today, with LTR up 3.4% and PLS up 2.7%. Meanwhile, oil and gas stocks WDS and STO fell around 3%, and uranium and coal stocks also a little bit easier.In corporate news, MYR fell 12.0% after it said a sharp slowdown in consumer spending late in the financial year weighed on margins. PPT had another bid from EQT of $22.50, and EVN bid for CNB. Nothing today on the economic front as we await the CPI on Wednesday.Asian markets were mixed, Nikkei 225 up 0.3%, HK up 0.8% and China 0.3% - Korea up 0.8%. US futures up 400 for Dow, 414 for Nasdaq.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Friday 24 July: ASX 200 down 67 - Banks break higher - Everything else trashed - Kopsi drops 6% - US futures steady

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2026 12:17

The ASX 200 fell 67 points to 8,772, leaving the market down around 25 points for the week. Once again, we saw money flowing out of resources, industrials and the technology sector, and back into the relative safety of the banking sector. The Big Bank Basket rose to $288.03 (+1.2%). CBA rose 1.0% and NAB gained 1.5%, while insurers also benefited from higher bond yields, with QBE up 1.4%. MQG continued to push higher following the CEO retirement announcement, but other financials slipped, with HUB down 3.1% and IFT falling 1.2%. REITs were mixed, with GMG down 2.7% while SGP edged slightly higher.Industrials were well and truly on the nose yet again, with WES down 1.0%. Retail stocks generally drifted lower, with most names down around X%. The technology sector was once again battered and bruised, with REA down 3.7%, XRO falling 4.5%, and WTC also hit hard.Healthcare was no refuge either, with CSL down 1.3% and RMD falling 0.4%.Resources were not spared, with BHP down 2.9% and RIO off 1.7%. Gold miners were once again under pressure as the bullion price looked to be testing US$4,000 an ounce yet again. NST fell 3.9% and EVN dropped 2.4% Lithium stocks were also depressed, with LTR falling hard and PLS down 2.1%. Rare earth and copper stocks were also in the doghouse, while uranium stocks continued to slide.Energy stocks were one of the brighter spots, with both WDS and STO firmer, while KAR enjoyed a good day following a broker upgrade.Corporate News, COH edged higher after confirming it would not be subject to the new US tariffs. ASX fell after announcing the retirement of its CFO. There was nothing of note on the local economic front. The US tariff saga continues, with Australia hit by 12.5% tariffs on products linked to alleged "forced labour" issues.Asian markets were weaker, Nikkei 225 down 2.9%, HK down 1.4% and China off 1.3% - Korea down 6.0%. US futures drifting.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

End of Day Report – Thursday 23 July: ASX 200 up 16 - Strong jobs data caps gains - Resources better - Banks better - Tech wrecked

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2026 13:03

The ASX 200 rose 16 points to 8,839 (+0.2%) after a strong start was derailed by better-than-expected jobs data.Banks were firm, with CBA climbing 0.4% and the Big Bank Basket up to $284.71 Elsewhere, financials eased back following the news from MQG that CEO Shemara Wikramanayake will step down in November to be replaced by Greg Ward. The stock fell 0.5% on the news. We also saw losses in the insurance sector, with QBE down 1.1% and SUN falling 1.9%. Once again, it was the industrials that came under pressure, with the tech space falling hard as US software stocks weakened. XRO dropped 5.0%, WTC fell 7.0%, and TNE also suffered. The All-Tech Index fell 2.9%, with 360 down 5.5% too. Industrials eased back, with TLS down 0.6%, while REA, CAR and SEK also fell. Retail stocks were weaker, led lower by WES. Utilities firmed, with ORG up 0.8%.Resources were stronger again today, with BHP up 1.5% and FMG rising 1.0%. S32 had another good day, and we saw a bounce in lithium stocks, with LTR up 3.6% and PLS rising 1.9%. Gold miners were also slightly firmer as bullion managed to hold on to recent gains. Coal stocks were better, along with uranium names, with PDN the standout following broker upgrades, up 11.6%.In corporate news, GDG had a cracker of a day, rising 37.1% after updating its funds under management. STO narrowed its production guidance to 99m to 105m barrels of oil equivalent. Elsewhere, SFR had a good day after reporting record quarterly revenue.In economic news, the latest jobs data pointed to a resilient economy, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, although most of the employment growth came from part-time jobs. The result is likely to keep pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates.Asian markets were better, Nikkei 225 up 0.9, HK up 1.4% and China up 0.1% - Korea up 4.3%. US futures drifting lower - Dow down 44 and Nasdaq down 100. Oil firms. European futures off slightly. Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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End of Day Report – Wednesday 22 July: ASX 200 up 30 - LYC falls on update - Gold shines - BHP strong - Resources rebound - US futures down.

Market Elevation - A Cirrus Research Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2026 13:36

The ASX 200 closed up 30 points to 8823 (0.3%), with resources back in favour and the gold sector shining. It seemed as though defensive stocks were sold to fund buying in the likes of BHP, which rose 2.5%, and RIO, up 2.5%. The gold miners had a good day, with NST rallying 3.5% and EVN up 4.3%, alongside solid gains across the sector. We also saw gains in the oil and gas space as crude prices headed higher, with WDS and STO both up more than 1%. Coal stocks also performed well, with YAL enjoying a strong session, as did NHC. Uranium stocks were in the green too, with PDN up 6.7% following its quarterly report on its Namibian operations.Lithium stocks gained a little ground, but LYC fell 3.6% after a disappointing quarterly result highlighted higher costs. Meanwhile, industrials sold off, with the tech sector once again under pressure. XRO fell 2.6%, TNE dropped 2.3%, and NXT gave back some of yesterday's gains. REA, CAR, and SEK also fell, while the healthcare sector was led lower by CSL, down 2.8%. Industrials slipped, with WES down 2.1%, JBH off 1.5%, and BXB easing slightly.The banking stocks were mostly unchanged, with insurers slipping slightly and the Big Bank Basket closing relatively flat at $283.03 (+0.4%). HUB rallied 4.9% following yesterday's upgrade. REITs also weakened, with GMG down 2.0%, CHC off 1.7%, and SGP falling 1.9%.In corporate news, WES pulled the trigger on the expansion of its lithium project. RRL announced that a string of encouraging drill results would lead to further exploration, while LYC flagged increased costs associated with its expansion project in Malaysia.There was nothing of note in local economic news.Asian markets were weaker, Nikkei 225 up 0.1%, HK down 1.0% and China unchanged - Korea up 2.6%, well off highs.US futures weaker - Dow down 40 and Nasdaq down 165. Oil firms. European markets set to fall 0.3%Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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Cirrus Market Outlook Q3 2026: Geopolitical Risk + AI to Accelerate Broadening Markets!

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2026 33:31

Satya walks his thoughts in the outlook for the back half of 2026:He argues that the broadening and rotational nature of the global markets may be accelerating. This is due to the fractious nature of global trading partners in the past 18 months. In addition, the diffused nature of AI has allowed downstream channels outside of the Technology sector – think Industrials, Materials, and Energy – to participate and profit from the AI spending boom. Given this backdrop, Small Caps will continue to lead Large, EM leads DM and Value gets its day.

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Financials & Industrials Emerge as AI Chips Take Breather

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 7:04

CFRA Research's Sam Stovall says recent weakness in semiconductor stocks looks like healthy consolidation after a strong run, with the group still expected to lead technology earnings growth. He also highlights opportunities in financials and industrials while discussing the mixed performance across defense stocks.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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End of Day Report – Monday 20 July: ASX 200 drift 5 pts lower - US futures give up some gains - Kopspi drops 4.5% again - EQR soars on Twiggy stake

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 11:57

The ASX 200 drifted around to close down 5 points at 8,791, as the banks paused after last week's rise and resources came back into focus. US futures sliding lower sapped early enthusiasm.The Big Bank Basket was flat at $283.68 (-0.7%) with MQG falling 0.8% and NWL down 2.2%. Insurers were slightly firmer, with QBE up 1.8% and MPL rising 0.6%, although REITs eased, with SGP down 1.0% and GMG off 0.9%. Industrials were mixed again, with defensives such as the supermarkets slightly firmer, along with TLS and REA, which continued to find some friends. Retail was also mixed, with WES up 0.2%, while others failed to keep pace.In the tech space, selling continued, with XRO down 2.1% and WTC off 3.6%, although there were buyers in MAQ.Resources were mixed. BHP steadied, RIO slipped 1.9%, lithium stocks remained depressed, and the gold sector bounced back from earlier losses, with WGX up 2.1% and WAF rising 2.6%. S32 had a good day, up 4.6%, after beating quarterly guidance.Oil and gas stocks were firmer as crude prices continued to push higher, with WDS up 1.4% alongside STO. Coal stocks also edged higher, with WHC up 2.7%, while uranium stocks posted modest gains.It was a relatively quiet day on the corporate front. PPT rejected the latest proposal from EQT, while CEH surged 15.2% on plans to develop its Queensland site. We also saw interim chairman of WJL spend $1 million buying shares, lifting his stake to around 5%, or approximately 24.5 million shares. EQR rallied 34.1% after Andrew Forrest's Tattarang disclosed a 16.8% stake.It was a quiet day on the economic front.Asian markets were weaker, Nikkei 225 down 4%, HK up 1.8% and China up 0.5% - Korea down 4.5%US futures mixed - Dow down 50 and Nasdaq up 8. Oil above $91. European markets set to fall 0.3%Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

267: Defense Investing in a New Era of Geopolitics, AI, and Global Security Transformation

The Bid

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2026 18:54

Defense investing is rapidly moving from the margins to the center of capital markets as geopolitical fragmentation, rising global tensions, and technological innovation reshape how nations allocate resources. What was once viewed as a niche or even overlooked sector is now emerging as a critical pillar of global infrastructure and security.In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido sits down with Rolf Heitmeyer, Head of Industrials in BlackRock's Fundamental Equities Group, to explore the forces driving this shift in defense investing. They discuss the surge in global defense spending, the changing competitive landscape between incumbent contractors and new entrants, and how innovation - from AI-enabled systems to low-cost drones - is transforming modern warfare.As geopolitical megaforces continue to evolve and technology reshapes security priorities, defense investing is becoming an increasingly relevant theme for investors seeking to understand the intersection of global politics, innovation, and markets.Key moments in this episode:00:00 Introduction01:41 AI Spending Surge Explained04:52 Tech Industry Shakeup Ahead07:14 Attritable vs Exquisite09:49 Scaling the Arsenal11:32 Startup Innovation Tour14:39 Defense in Portfolios16:05 A Long Supercycle17:13 Wrap Up and DisclosuresDefense investing, capital markets, AI investing, megaforces, geopolitical risk, stock market trends, defense technologySources: “Venture capital investment in defense tech surges while M&A activity slows” S&P Global March 2026; “Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload' Governs Endurance” RUSI, March 2026; Department of War Statistics; Data from BlackRock Fundamental Equities as of April 2026.This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener. Reference to any company or investment strategy mentioned is for illustrative purposes only and not investment advice. In the UK and non-European Economic Area countries, this is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In the European Economic Area, this is authorized and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. For full disclosures, visit blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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End of Day Report – Thursday 16 July: ASX 200 Flat - BHP quarterly - Banks rally - Resources slip - US futures flat - Korea down again.

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2026 10:48

The ASX 200 closed unchanged on futures expiry day at 8841, after an afternoon rally in the banks gathered pace, with CBA up 1.8% and NAB gaining 1.3%. The Big Bank Basket continued its recent run higher to $285.73. Financials were generally firmer, with SOL up 3.3% and GQG gaining 1.1%. REITs also pushed higher, led by SCG up 0.5% and SGP rising 2.0%. Industrials and technology stocks found buyers, with WES up 1.2% and ALL gaining 0.3%, while retailers edged higher as JBH rose 1.8%. Healthcare stocks also regained some poise, with CSL and RMD both moving higher. In the technology sector, buying returned to XRO and WTC, while REA had a strong session, up 6.6%, after reporting growth in listings. That helped lift CAR and SEK as well.Resources, however, were once again out of favour. BHP's quarterly failed to excite the bulls, with the stock down 2.3%. RIO also slipped, while FMG fell 1.1%. Lithium stocks remained under pressure, with PLS falling sharply and LTR following suit. Gold miners were mixed, with NST down 0.1% while GMD gained 1.5%. Oil and gas stocks eased as crude prices slipped, with WDS down 1.5%, while coal and uranium stocks also drifted lower.In corporate news, NWL reported record funds under administration (FUA). PPT announced it had received an improved takeover proposal from EQT, TNE maintained its FY26 guidance, and OBM warned of lower gold production in FY27 alongside higher all-in sustaining costs (AISC). On the economic front, Korean stocks were volatile again after the BoK raised rates.Asian markets were weaker, Japan down 3%, HK up 2.1% and China flat Kospi down 6%.US futures mixed - Dow up 45 and Nasdaq up 1. Oil off 0.5%. European markets set to rise a little.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

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AI's Next Chapter Could Belong to Banks and Industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2026 5:35

Matt Wittmer explains why investors should focus on quality companies with strong future cash flows while maintaining a diversified approach to AI. He highlights banks and industrials as overlooked AI beneficiaries, citing productivity gains, cross-selling opportunities, and fraud prevention as drivers of long-term growth.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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End of Day Report – Tuesday 14 July: ASX 200 closes unchanged on resource rally - Asia holding firm - Gold and oil bounce

canada europe canadian congress republicans reveal democratic heading optimism euphoria materials survey results industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2026 12:09

The ASX 200 finished unchanged at 8809, fighting back from earlier losses as resources found a footing. US futures helped, as did steady markets across Asia. Banks eased back, with CBA down %, leaving the Big Bank Basket at $281.76 (-0.6%). Other financials also weakened, NWL fell 2.2% and SOL dropped 0.8%. REITs were easier too, with GMG down 2.7% and CHC falling 1.3%. WOW and COL slid 1% as defensives were sold down. Healthcare picked up a little, with CSL rising 1.3% and COH up 1.6%. Industrials generally eased, WES flat and TCL dropped 0.8%, with SGH off 1.4%. Tech stocks were mixed, XRO and WTC found buyers, TNE fell 1.3% and NXT was 3.2% easier. All-Tech Index fell 0.3%. Resources staged a good turnaround, with BHP up 0.6% and FMG up 1.3%, while the gold miners recovered after early losses. Bullion pushed back above US$4,000. EVN rose 3.2% and VAU gained 1.4%. S32 also had a better session, while lithium stocks posted small gains. Oil and gas stocks rose as crude pushed higher, with WDS up 3.0% and STO rallying %. Coal stocks were firm, WHC up %, while uranium stocks were whacked again. PDN fell 6.0% and NXG lost 3.2%.In corporate news, KKR joined the consortium bidding for SDF. LNW powered 8.0% higher on a guidance update. CTD remains suspended as it tries to negotiate terms with the UK Government to stave off a liquidation event. GMD and VAU agreed terms for their merger.On the economic front, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose 4.1% to 83.9 in July from 80.6 in June.Asian markets were better, Japan up 0.5%, HK up 0.3% and China up 1.2%, Kospi up 1.2%.US futures slightly positive. Oil up 1.7%.Marcus Today – Daily Market InsightsMarcus Today provides clear, practical commentary for self-directed investors – covering markets, portfolios, education, and decision-making without the noise.If you'd like to go further:Start a free 14-day trial of Marcus Today http://bit.ly/mt-trial-podcastJoin Marcus Today Use code MTPODCAST for 10% off http://bit.ly/mt-join-podcast-offerMT20 – Managed ETF Portfolio A professionally managed portfolio run by Marcus Padley and the team, using ASX-listed ETFs with active market timing. http://bit.ly/mt20-podcastPrinciples – How We Think About Investing A short video series on timing, behaviour, and decision-making. No stock tips. http://bit.ly/mt-principles-podcast—Disclaimer This podcast is general information only and does not consider your personal circumstances. It is not personal financial advice.

June Survey Results Reveal Optimism, Not Euphoria, Heading Into 2H26

RBC's Markets in Motion

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2026 5:11 Transcription Available

The big things you need to know:First, across the globe our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months and see attractive valuations in the industries they cover.Second, Europe and Canada captured the most optimistic performance outlooks among our four coverage regions, but the US was not far behind.Third, our Canadian and US analysts expressed a favorable view of their own respective domestic policy backdrops. On the US midterm elections, our US analysts had a slightly constructive tilt on performance in a Republican sweep scenario, a slightly negative tilt on performance in a Democratic sweep scenario, and a neutral view on performance in a split Congress scenario.Fourth, at the global sector level, performance outlooks were mostly positive and came in stronger than other sectors for Materials and Industrials, but only by a little.

CUSMA countdown: What's at stake for Canadian industrials, energy and equities – Joe Overdevest, Max Lemieux and Bobby Reynolds

FidelityConnects

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2026 29:51

With CUSMA up for review on July 1, join us for a one-week-out look at what it could mean for Canadian markets. Equity research analyst Bobby Reynolds shares his latest views on Canadian industrials, including potential impacts from trade changes. Portfolio managers Joe Overdevest and Maxime Lemieux round out the discussion with perspectives on energy and broader Canadian equities. Recorded on June 24, 2026. At Fidelity, our mission is to build a better future for Canadian investors and help them stay ahead. We offer investors and institutions a range of innovative and trusted investment portfolios to help them reach their financial and life goals. Fidelity mutual funds and ETFs are available by working with a financial advisor or through an online brokerage account. Visit fidelity.ca/howtobuy for more information. For a fifth year in a row, FidelityConnects by Fidelity Investments Canada was ranked #1 podcast by Canadian financial advisors in the 2025 Environics' Advisor Digital Experience Study. - Révision de l'ACEUM : les enjeux pour l'industrie, l'énergie et les actions canadiennes À l'approche de la date du 1er juillet pour la révision de l'ACEUM, joignez-vous à nous pour un survol des répercussions possibles sur les marchés canadiens. Robert Reynolds, analyste en recherche sur les actions, présentera sa plus récente analyse du secteur industriel canadien, notamment les effets potentiels de changements sur le plan commercial. Les gestionnaires de portefeuille Joe Overdevest et Maxime Lemieux concluront la discussion en exprimant leurs points de vue sur l'énergie et les actions canadiennes en général. Date : 24 juin 2026 Chez Fidelity, notre mission consiste à aider le public investisseur canadien à se bâtir un meilleur avenir et à rester à l'avant-garde. Nous offrons aux particuliers et aux institutions une gamme de portefeuilles de placement innovants et fiables pour les aider à atteindre leurs objectifs financiers et personnels. Les fonds communs de placement et les FNB de Fidelity sont offerts par l'intermédiaire des conseillers et conseillères en placements et de comptes de courtage en ligne. Pour de plus amples renseignements, visitez fidelity.ca/commentinvestir. Les baladodiffusions DialoguesFidelity se sont classées au premier rang pour une cinquième année consécutive lors du sondage 2025 d'Environics sur l'expérience numérique des conseillers et conseillères en placements au Canada.

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Series 1, Episode 49: Forgotten

Scattershot Symphony: The Music of Peter Link

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2026 75:45 Transcription Available

We'd love to hear from you! Please send us a Text Message!Just because something is forgotten does not necessarily mean that it's not any good. As the Earth turns on its axis, times change. What was up is now down. What was fast is now slow. Great leaders are forgotten. Hitlers are remembered. Good times are forgotten. Struggles are remembered. This podcast, Forgotten, is about forgotten songs. Whenever I write a song that I end up not liking very much, I always throw it away. I never leave it around somewhere to be forgotten. But I do have forgotten songs that I liked at the time that I wrote then but find that years later they might be best forgotten. Early works tend to be forgotten. As the years have gone by gratefully, I've gotten better at what I do and so my standards are higher. Still it's always great to find all these oldies but goodies. Each of the forgotten has its own story. Here are 10.Theater of the Imagination is presented by Watchfire Music: watchfiremusic.com

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Canada's national ambitions give hope to industrials

Strategic Alternatives

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2026 15:05

RBC's Canadian Industrials Conference in Toronto wrapped with more reasons for optimism than many expected. In this conference takeaway, Walter Spracklin, Director of Canadian Research and Co-Head of Global Industrials Research, debriefs with analysts Sabahat Khan, James McGarragle, and Matthew McKellar on the key themes that emerged. Steel producers are finding ways to mitigate U.S. tariffs, the freight recession is easing, and the most significant buzz centred on the government's nation-building infrastructure and defence plans.Key Points• Canada's nation-building plans are boosting industrial confidence, while its defense strategy creates a tailwind for the country's aerospace sector.• Tighter supply has helped to ease the long-running freight recession.• Steel suppliers are diversifying from U.S. exposure to mitigate trade tariffs.• Tariffs have also hit lumber hard, with supply tightening in response.• AI deployment is positioning the transport sector for operational efficiencies.Introductions [00:06]Host Walter Spracklin refers to RBC's recent Canadian industrials conference in Toronto, which heard from 38 participating companies. He introduces three colleagues – Sabahat Khan, James McGarragle, and Matthew McKellar – to discuss the key themes that emerged.Freight recession eases [00:47]The freight recession dominated last year's conference, but tighter supply driven by regulatory changes has lifted pricing, with positive impacts on rail too.Tariff impacts on industrials [02:05]Section 232 tariffs are creating direct impacts across steel-exposed industrials, while broader tariff uncertainty is delaying some large capital project decisions.Government plans inject confidence [04:30]The Canadian government's new strategies on nation-building infrastructure are lifting confidence in the market. Its plans to increase defense spending and prioritize Canadian producers are seen as a potentially lasting tailwind for aerospace companies.Paper and forest production [9:36]Demand is poor and the lumber sector has been hit hard by tariffs. However, tighter supply has set up the industry for better conditions at lower levels of demand in future.AI and capital allocation [13:01]Other common themes at the conference were the deployment of AI to achieve efficiencies, especially in transport; and the disciplined allocation of capital, balancing organic growth with strategic M&A.

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Is the Fed's Next Move a Rate Hike? What a Strong Jobs Report Means for Your Portfolio

InvestTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 42:26 Transcription Available

Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report sent stocks tumbling and reignited fears that the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise rates rather than cut them. With gold falling sharply and bond markets repricing, investors need to understand what a potential rate hike cycle means for their portfolios.Today's Stocks & Topics: Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS), Market Wrap, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), Is the Fed's Next Move a Rate Hike? What a Strong Jobs Report Means for Your Portfolio, Investing in Industrials, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL), Markets and the War, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG), Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER).Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/INVEST for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Plaud AI and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/invest for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out Scribe and use my code scribe.how/invest for a great deal: https://scribe.com* Check out TaskRabbit and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://taskrabbit.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

AI Trade Broadens: Beyond Mega Caps Into Industrials, Materials

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2026 7:50

BlackRock's Kristy Akullian highlights strong S&P 500 (SPX) earnings growth and a broadening AI trade beyond mega cap tech into sectors like industrials and materials. She emphasizes diversification across asset classes, including intermediate bonds, gold, and digital assets, to navigate the market.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Wall Street Bull Brian Belski Sees Correction Before S&P Run Into the 8,000s

On The Tape

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2026 54:11

Brian Belski joins Dan Nathan to break down why he still sees the S&P 500 moving higher — but warns a correction may come first. Belski explains why this is now an earnings-driven market, why the Mag 7 may begin to hand leadership to the other 493 stocks, and what could trigger the next pullback. He also shares his views on AI stocks, SpaceX/OpenAI IPOs, financials, industrials, housing, rates, and why he believes the market could still end the year with “an 8 handle.” Topics include:• Why Brian Belski expects a correction before another rally• The case for S&P 8,000 (and why it won't be a straight line)• AI enthusiasm, IPO mania & whether we're in a bubble• Why he's bullish on financials, industrials & select cyclicals• Treasury yields, housing, Walmart, Deere & the consumer outlook• What could actually trigger the next bear market Timecodes 00:00 Intro + Brian Belski Returns02:00 Inside Belski's New ETF (HIS) & Stock-Picking Strategy05:45 How Belski Nailed the S&P 7,000 Call08:30 Why 2026 Is an “Earnings-Driven” Market09:45 Why Belski Expects a Market Correction10:45 Mag 7 vs. The Other 493 Stocks14:00 Walmart Warning, Consumer Trends & Retail Risks17:15 Deere, Industrials & Why AI Could Benefit Old Economy Stocks20:00 Why Belski Still Likes Financials Despite Weak Performance21:45 Airlines, FedEx & The Transport Trade24:00 Housing, Homebuilders & What Happens If Rates Fall26:45 Will Treasury Yields Finally Move Lower?31:00 SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic IPO Risks33:00 Could AI IPOs Trigger a Market Shake-Up?39:00 The AI Trade: Bubble, Boom or Just Getting Started?44:00 What Wall Street Is Missing in Software & AI45:45 Timing the Next Market Correction48:00 What Could Actually Cause a Bear Market?49:45 Belski's S&P Outlook: Why He Sees an “8 Handle” This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity's most powerful trading experience yet: ⁠www.Fidelity.com/TraderPlus⁠ Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. Xxx —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

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The Case for Staying Bullish on Equities

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2026 5:48

Despite recent pressure on stocks, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that earnings and AI's impact remain stronger than many investors appreciate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our bullish mid-year outlook and why stocks have been under pressure more recently. It's Tuesday, May 19th at 1:30 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Every cycle has a moment when investors become so focused on the last risk that they miss the next opportunity. I think we're in one of those moments right now. The first half of this year has had a familiar feel to it. The market weakened under the surface well before the headlines got loud, investors discovered the new risks after prices had already moved, and sentiment got worse just as the forward setup was getting better. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again – but with some important twists. The biggest twist is where we are in the cycle. Last year, we were still coming out of the tail end of a rolling recession. Today, we're in a rolling recovery and that is still underappreciated. This matters, because it changes how we should interpret the correction earlier this year and a powerful rally. In the first quarter, many investors looked at the S&P 500's less-than-10 percent price decline and concluded the market was complacent. I think that really misses the point. Roughly half of the Russell 3000 saw drawdowns of 20 percent or more, and the S&P 500 forward Price Earnings multiple fell by 18 percent from its peak as forward earnings continued to rise. That is not complacency. That is a market doing what it does best – discounting risk before the narrative catches up. And those risks were not small. We had private credit concerns, and a major debate around AI disruption to labor markets as well as a new war that drove oil prices up by 100 percent. In many of the areas most directly exposed to these risks, the market delivered 40 percent-plus corrections. So the provocative question I would ask now is this: what if the biggest risk from here is not being too bullish, but being too cautious after the market has already done the work? We address these questions in our recently published mid-year outlook. Specifically, we raised our 12 month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts. In fact, we assume some further valuation compression. We raised our S&P 500 EPS by approximately 5 percent as operating leverage from the rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support and a capex cycle that continues to broaden. That earnings point is critical. In prior cycles when oil shocks ended the business cycle, earnings were already decelerating or contracting outright before the shock hit. Today, the opposite is happening. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels. First-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise was 6 percent, the strongest in four years; and earnings revisions breadth has moved back up to 22 percent from just 5 percent at the start of reporting season. That is a very different backdrop than the traditional late-cycle oil shock playbook. AI is another area where I think the consensus has evolved. The labor market disruption narrative has moved faster than the actual implementation. The enterprise application layer is still early, and for now, AI looks more like a margin tailwind than a labor-market wrecking ball. Companies are running leaner, hiring less, and beginning to quantify real benefits rather than simply firing everyone. While true adoption of this technology is likely to be slower than anticipated, the apprehension to over-hire is real and that is driving higher profitability in an indirect way. Monetary policy and liquidity are still the main risks to this bull market rising unimpeded. With the Fed becoming less dovish and liquidity needs rising, interest rates are on the rise and the equity-rate correlation is negative again. The 4.5 percent level on the 10-year Treasury remains important for valuations. We don't need Fed cuts for the equity market to work. History suggests that when earnings growth is strong and the Fed is on hold, returns can still be very solid. The real risk is liquidity – whether the Fed and Treasury underestimates how much capital the private economy now needs to fund investment and recovery.Ultimately, the Fed and Treasury have tools to address these liquidity needs and they have been using them aggressively this year. However, these provisions can ebb and flow and we are currently in a window where it's going to ebb, leaving stocks vulnerable in the short term. If the correction persists, investors should use that as an opportunity to add exposure to the parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery, specifically Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary Goods. The breadth of the earnings and capex cycle remains under-appreciated, not to mention the recovery from the rolling recession that ended with Liberation Day a year ago. The bottom line is simple. The correction earlier this year was more significant than most appreciate in terms of valuation and the earnings story is only getting better. The path won't be smooth, so use any corrections to position for the continued broadening in earnings that we believe will continue.Just remember, by the time the evidence feels obvious, the opportunity is usually gone. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out! And I wish my wife a happy birthday.

5-12-26 Tech Rally Risk Is Rising | Before the Bell

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2026 4:13

Technology stocks continue to dominate the market as XLK and momentum-driven trades surge higher, but the rally is becoming increasingly narrow. Financials, Healthcare, Industrials, Energy, and Materials are lagging badly while Technology pulls the broader indexes higher. In today's pre-market update, we examine the growing divergence between Technology and the rest of the market, why overbought momentum conditions matter, and how concentrated rallies can create hidden risks for investors. We also discuss sector rotation, portfolio diversification, and why maintaining exposure to lagging sectors may help hedge against the next correction. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/rZ1lej68NvE --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #TechnologyStocks #XLK #StockMarket #Investing #MarketRisk

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Chuck Etzweiler on AI, Industrials, and the Next Phase of the Bull Market

Play Episode Listen Later May 11, 2026 6:03

Chuck Etzweiler argues the current bull market still has room to run, driven by long‑term innovation across AI, robotics, and blockchain. He highlights broadening strength beyond tech into industrials and materials, and says volatility remains a normal part of a multi‑year structural uptrend.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Nasdaq Hits Records: Jake Dollarhide on Intel, AI Industrials, and the Fed

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2026 6:25

Market resilience remains front and center as the Nasdaq pushes to new records despite geopolitical tension and shifting rate expectations. Jake Dollarhide of Longbow Asset Management discusses Intel's (INTC) sharp rally tied to leadership changes and its role in reshoring chip supply alongside Samsung and TSMC (TSM), while noting how the AI trade is expanding into industrials and utilities like Caterpillar (CAT) and Carrier (CARR). He also weighs a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve as inflation and labor trends keep “higher‑for‑longer” firmly in play.======== Schwab Network ========Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DEmpowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Why Stocks Keep Rallying

ai growth energy artificial intelligence stock big tech utilities value investing disclosures industrials gimme some truth

Play Episode Listen Later May 4, 2026 4:53

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the factors behind stock gains across sectors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why earnings remain the most important variable for equity markets.It's Monday, May 4th at 2pm in New York. So, let's get after it.The more I think about what's been driving this market, and the more time I spend with the data, the more I keep coming back to the same conclusion: it's earnings. Not the headlines, not even the Fed. Earnings are doing the heavy lifting right now.When I look at this reporting season, what stands out isn't just resilience, it's strength that's broader than most people appreciate. The typical company in the S&P 500 is growing earnings at about 16 percent, and the median earnings surprise is running around 6 percent. That's the strongest we've seen in four years.What's really interesting to me is that this strength is no longer confined to just the biggest tech names. Yes, hyper scalers and semiconductors are still playing a leading role, but the story is expanding. We're seeing earnings revisions move higher across Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclicals, in particular. That kind of breadth tells me this isn't just a narrow leadership story; it's something more sustainable.At the same time, many investors are focused on the geopolitical backdrop, particularly the Iran conflict and what it means for oil, inflation, and supply chains. To be fair, companies are feeling some of that pressure. When you listen to earnings calls, you hear about rising freight costs, tighter supply chains, and higher input prices across industries like chemicals and machinery.But here's the nuance: those impacts are uneven. They're not hitting the entire market in the same way. In fact, at the index level, they're being offset. Energy has become a positive contributor to earnings growth, and the higher-end consumer remains relatively strong. Even with higher fuel costs, we're not seeing a meaningful pullback in overall consumption – at least not yet. That tells me that we're not dealing with a classic demand shock. We're dealing with a redistribution of pressure, and companies are adapting. In many cases, they're passing through higher costs. Revenue surprises are running above historical norms, which suggests pricing power is improving.Now, of course, earnings aren't the only piece of the puzzle. Policy still matters, and the shift in rate expectations this year has been meaningful. The Fed has clearly become more concerned about inflation, and the market has repriced expectations to fewer cuts, and maybe even a higher probability of hikes. That repricing is a big reason why valuations corrected so sharply over the past six months.It's notable that even with that headwind, equities have managed to stabilize, thanks to earnings. When earnings are growing at an above-trend pace, equities can deliver solid returns regardless of whether the Fed is cutting or not.That said, I do think that there's one area of risk that deserves further attention, and that's liquidity. We've seen periods of funding stress over the past six months, and those moments have coincided with pressure on valuations. The Fed and the Treasury have stepped in at times to stabilize these conditions, helping to reduce bond volatility and support equity multiples.Bottom line, we have already had a meaningful correction in valuations this year with price earnings multiples falling 18 percent from their peak last fall. That adjustment occurred as the market digested the many risks that we have been highlighting. Meanwhile, earnings are not only holding up, they're accelerating and broadening across sectors. The risks that we've all all focused on – geopolitics, oil, supply chains – are real. But they're being absorbed at the company level. As a result, the price declines were much more modest than the compression in valuations. Meanwhile, monetary policy is providing some headwinds, but it's not overwhelming the earnings story. Equity markets move on two things: earnings and liquidity. Right now, earnings are more than offsetting the lingering liquidity concerns. In short, earnings growth is greater than the valuation reset. This is classic bull market behavior and as long as that continues, I think the U.S. equity market will grind higher for the rest of the year with intermittent bouts of volatility. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

AI and Value Investing: Is the Growth Stock Era Over?

Gimme Some Truth

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 27, 2026 22:34

In this episode of Gimme Some Truth, we explore the massive shift happening in the markets. For over a decade, Growth stocks have dominated, but Artificial Intelligence might be the very catalyst that brings Value Investing back to the forefront.We break down the "AI Build-out" and why sectors typically labeled as "Value"—like Energy, Utilities, and Industrials—are becoming the backbone of the AI revolution. If you are worried about S&P 500 concentration risk and being too heavy in Big Tech, this episode is a must-watch.What we cover in this episode:- The Growth vs. Value Trade: Why the tide is turning after 15 years.- AI Disruption: How AI is actually challenging the valuation of traditional growth companies.- Concentration Risk: The dangers of a tech-heavy portfolio in today's market.- The AI Infrastructure Play: Which value sectors stand to gain the most from the AI build-out.- Market History: Lessons from past bubbles (2000, 2008) and how they apply to the AI boom.Don't let recency bias dictate your strategy. We discuss why now is the time to review your portfolio and ensure you aren't over-exposed to a single trade.

Retail Resilience Drives Housing Optimism as Industrials and AAPL Offer Stability

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 21, 2026 6:59

Chris Ward says the U.S. consumer remains resilient, with retail sales posting their strongest gain in years as employment stays firm. He sees easing mortgage rates setting the stage for a recovery in housing, while industrial stocks offer a steady hedge amid reshoring efforts and global defense rebuilding. Ward also weighs whether defensive, low‑volatility sectors, including Apple (AAPL), can continue to cushion portfolios against inflation and rate uncertainty.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Bobrinskoy: Overweight Tech Masks Value in Small Caps and Industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2026 8:15

Charles Bobrinskoy says the S&P 500's heavy tech concentration is giving investors a false sense of diversification, creating an opportunity in overlooked small-cap value stocks. He favors housing-exposed names MHK and REZI, consumer plays SJM and PHIN, MOS as an agriculture hedge, and suggests short-duration fixed income as inflation risks remain elevated.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Mounting Evidence of a Market Rebound

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 13, 2026 5:11

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson shares his perspective on why investors should position for a stock market recovery despite ongoing uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why equity investors – sometimes – need to look away from the headlines.It's Monday, April 13th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Today I want to talk about something I think a lot of investors are struggling with right now – and that's timing. When I talk to people, markets still feel fragile to most. There's uncertainty around geopolitics, central banks, oil… You name it. But when I look at what the market is actually doing; not what it feels like, but what it's telling us – I come away with a very different conclusion. The market is further along than most people think in this correction.In fact, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen the S&P 500 bounce meaningfully. Almost 7 percent from the lows after holding that critical 6300 to 6500 range that we've been focused on. To me, that's not random. That's the market carving out a low ahead of an all-clear signal. And stepping back, my broader view hasn't changed.I still think we're in a new bull market that began last April, coming out of that rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. This correction is part of that cycle; not the end of it. And importantly, a lot of the heavy lifting has already been done.Valuations have compressed significantly. Forward price/earnings multiples have fallen about 18 percent from top to bottom. And beneath the surface, more than half of stocks are down 20 percent or more. That's a market that has already discounted a lot of risk – whether it's the war, private credit concerns, or AI disruption.At the same time, earnings are moving in the opposite direction. Trailing earnings growth is running around 15 percent, and forward earnings growth is up over 20 percent. That combination of falling multiples and rising earnings is a classic bull market correction behavior. Not a bear market. And that's why I think many are misreading this environment.One area where I think that's especially clear is energy. If you look at the price action, energy stocks appear to have already peaked in relative terms. That's often a signal that the underlying commodity – in this case oil – may also be peaking. Or at least it's stabilizing.Which brings me to what I think is really driving volatility now: rates.We're back in a regime where stocks and yields are negatively correlated. That means higher rates are a headwind for equities again, and the recent hawkish tone from central banks that's focused on inflation is creating tighter financial conditions. In my view, that's the final hurdle. Not the war. Not oil. But monetary policy. And here's the interesting part. Tightening financial conditions are also what ultimately force central banks to pivot. So the very thing creating anxiety today may be what sets up relief tomorrow.Now, if we're in the later stages of this correction, the next question is positioning. For me, it's still about a barbell. On one side, I like cyclicals like Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary – where the earnings remain strong and valuations have reset. On the other side is quality growth. In particularly the hyperscalers; where sentiment has been washed out, but fundamentals remain intact. That combination has worked well off the lows so far, and I think it continues to make sense here.When I zoom out even further, there's a bigger theme developing as well. And that's the rebalancing of the economy, a core theme we discussed in our 2026 outlook back in November. We're starting to see hard evidence that growth is shifting, from the public to the private economy. Private payrolls are strengthening, capital investment is picking up, and companies are behaving as if the current uncertainty is temporary – not structural. This is the rolling recovery on track.At the same time, AI is acting more as a margin tailwind than a disruption, at least in the near term. And this supports operating leverage across many industries. All of that reinforces my view that the recovery is real. And still has room to run.So when I put it all together, here's where I land:The market has already discounted a lot of bad news. It's adjusted valuations, reset positioning, and absorbed market risks. What risk remains is policy, and how long rates and liquidity stay restrictive. But markets don't wait for clarity on that. They move ahead of it.So, here's my advice. Take advantage of any further worries and put capital to work before it's obvious. Because the market waits for no one.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

U.S.-Iran Truce: What's Next?

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2026 10:09

While a tentative ceasefire in the Middle East holds, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a sticking point in diplomatic efforts. Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore walk through some scenarios that could play out.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the U.S.-Iran ceasefire's key uncertainties, consequences and what we're watching for next. It's Wednesday, April 8th at 11am in New York. Okay. Let's start with the current situation. The U.S. and Iran have agreed to a provisional ceasefire, two weeks tied to follow on talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets so far, treating this as a deescalation but not a clear resolution… Ariana Salvatore: That's right. And I think the key framing here is this is a pause, not a peace deal. And in the near term, I would not assume things are suddenly stable. We still have some key uncertainties around how the ceasefire deal is going to be implemented, as well as how negotiations will begin to take shape. Michael Zezas: Right. And that's important. It seems like Iran's reported 10-point plan for the ceasefire includes some elements that might be non-starters for the U.S., some things around sanctions and unfreezing of assets. And so, there's lots of ways that there could be some re-escalation in the near term. Ariana Salvatore: Okay. So that's the near term – fragile, noisy, and still pretty headline driven. But let's try to think about this a little bit further out. How are we thinking about the medium term? Michael Zezas: Yeah. So, thinking a little bit further out, it seems to us that ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening should continue to progress because the incentives are widely shared across the key actors involved. So, the U.S.'s incentive to effectively be done with the conflict is pretty well understood. There's domestic political incentives and economic incentives. There's ways to potentially explain away some of the compromises the U.S. might have to make around the Strait of Hormuz, around sanctions. And maybe point to some incentives to work with partners in the region over time to diminish the importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a choke point. Iran's incentive is pretty clear – to preserve its regime. And another actor here, which appears to be increasingly important, is China, which has reportedly been involved in expressing its preference for deescalation. And that's pretty important because China has a lot of leverage on Iran given its economic relationship with the country. Ariana Salvatore: So, starting with these negotiations, it seems like, as you mentioned before, there's still a lot of gaps between what the U.S. side and what the Iranian side is asking for. But let's put that in the context of the ceasefire. Even if it were to hold – that doesn't necessarily translate to stability, right? Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think that's right. So, if Iran were to start rebuilding its military assets, in particular its nuclear program, at some point in the future, we'd probably come back to a similar point where Israel and the United States might find their ability to project that power to be intolerable. And what we don't know right now is if any type of deal is possible that can mitigate those very long-term concerns. So, even if commodities start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz at a rate that is similar to what it was before the conflict started, it seems like there will be this overhang. Of concern that that could shut down at any moment's notice, if the U.S. and Israel and other actors in the area become concerned again with Iran's power. Ariana Salvatore: So, that overhang you're talking about actually does have some real economic impacts. One way to frame this is kind of like a lingering tax on the global system. We see that through the oil market, right? So, we think of this as a structural risk premium on oil. Our strategist, Martijn Rats, thinks that even in a deescalation scenario, you're not getting back to that world of $65-$70 oil. This Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a critical choke point that doesn't necessarily go away overnight. And maybe over time you could see some mitigation, construction of new pipelines, alternative routes, et cetera. But in the interim, that risk premium feeds through to energy prices, shipping costs, and ultimately food and broader supply chains, which is something that Chetan Ahya has been flagging in Asia for quite some time. Michael Zezas: I think that's right. And so, in highlighting that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point for the global economy and for supply chains generally, it's a reminder of a problem that's been on display for the last 10 years.Just that there are supply chain choke points all over the place when you start thinking about the security needs of the U.S. and other actors throughout the globe. And so, it underscores this dynamic where multinationals are going to have to rethink – and are already starting to rethink – their supply chains. And whether or not they need to build in what our investment bankers have been calling an anti-fragile supply chain strategy. So, we can't just solve for the cheapest cost of goods and cheapest transit. You have to wire up your supply chains in a way that can survive geopolitical conflicts. And while there's some extra embedded costs that comes along with that, well, they're more reliable, so it's more efficient over the long run. Of course, it costs a lot of money to rewire your supply chains, and so that's tied into this opportunity around capital expenditures going into proving this out. And so, investors should be aware that there are plenty of sectors which will have to participate in effectively being part of rebuilding those supply chains. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, so the way we're framing this is, this is another data point kind of in that trend toward a multipolar world. We've seen certain geopolitical events accelerate that transition. Russia-Ukraine, for example, the pandemic; and this is just sort of another example in that same direction. And some of the sectors that we think are structural beneficiaries here: obviously defense, in particular in Europe, and industrials here in the U.S. Chris Snyder's been doing a lot of work on reshoring, how we're seeing that pick up – and we think that probably continues. But as we're speaking about the U.S. and what this could mean, let's bring this back to the AI angle. Because I think that's where this all really connects in maybe a less obvious way. Near term, we're thinking about the financing implications here as pretty modest. Unless we get a major re-escalation or a rupture of the ceasefire, it shouldn't really change capital availability in a meaningful way. But this could affect where capacity gets built. Michael Zezas: Yeah, that's right. And over the past year, there's been a lot of news about the U.S. engaging in the Middle East with partners to build AI capacity via data center capacity – because there's also plenty of energy in the area to fuel those data centers. But those data centers as an infrastructure asset, and an economically valuable one at that, potentially become military targets when they're built. So, there is a consideration here after this conflict about whether or not those things can be built or be relied upon. And it is a critical part of the U.S.' strategy to build compute capacity in the aggregate with allies. And increasingly they've been looking to the Middle East as allies in an AI build out. Ariana Salvatore: So, if that becomes more challenging and you see persistent instability, for example, in the Middle East, you're probably going to see more demand push toward domestic U.S. data centers. And something that we've been highlighting has been not only the kind of pressures on the capital side. But also, you know, the bottlenecks that are very real – like power, permitting, labor, equipment and political resistance, which we've talked about on this podcast as well. We're seeing a lot of constraints. So, it's not really feasible that the U.S. is going to be able to fully substitute that Middle East capacity. Michael Zezas: So, I think the read through here is that the U.S. is still on track to build the compute capacity that it needs. The CapEx that's going into that – that is helping the U.S. economy grow this year – is still very much intact. It raises some potential future questions about how quickly the U.S. can build out, but it's unclear if that matters in the near term to (a) both the build out and (b) the productivity that can come from the current build out. Ariana Salvatore: And I think a really important consequence of what you're describing has to do with the U.S. China dynamics. So, if the U.S. is, for example, seen as a less reliable security guarantor, then you may see some of the Gulf countries potentially deepen their economic alignment with China at the margin. And that's something that could be really relevant for the upcoming U.S.-China Summit next month. Remember that was postponed from – initially it was towards the end of March. Now it seems to be around the middle of May. So, that's a really important catalyst that we're keeping an eye on for now. That's a little bit further out.Near term, of course, we'll be watching things like military buildup in the region. Any indications on how exactly the Strait of Hormuz will be managed from here. And how these negotiations progress over the next two weeks. As far as the equity market is concerned, it appears that the worst of this risk is behind us from a rate of change perspective. So, our strategists think you should start to see leadership emerge from the sectors that were doing well into this conflict, namely cyclicals like Financials and Industrials leading the way from here. Michael Zezas: Well Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Riding the Final Innings of the Market Correction

The Industrial Talk Podcast with Scott MacKenzie

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 6, 2026 5:05

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson talks about risks in this late stage of the equity market pullback, how investors should position and what could come next.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing what investors should be doing as we enter the final innings of this equity market correction.It's Monday, April 6th at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it.For the past several months, my view has been very consistent. In short, I continue to believe we're in a bull market that began last April, coming out of what I've described as a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. That recovery remains intact despite recent threats from AI disruption, private credit and a new war in Iran while the war between Russia and Ukraine persists.Markets have not been complacent with stocks correcting since last fall. In fact, it's well advanced with the S&P 500's forward price earnings multiple declining by 18 percent, a rare move outside of a recession or a Fed tightening cycle – neither of which is likely in my view.Meanwhile, earnings growth isn't rolling over. Instead, it's accelerating to multi-year highs and that's a key difference versus past periods when oil shocks led to a recession. And, in the absence of that outcome, I see a market that's discounted a lot of bad news.Beneath the surface, the damage has been even more significant with over half of stocks down at least 20 percent from their highs, and many down 30-40 percent. Resets of this scale usually occur near the end of corrections, not the beginning.The S&P 500 bounced last week off the 6300 to 6500 range of support that I have been highlighting. Could we re-test those levels? Sure – especially if rates push higher or geopolitical risks escalate further. However, I don't see a meaningful breakdown.If anything, what's still missing – and what I'd actually like to see – is a bit more de-risking in crowded trades like semiconductors and memory stocks, in particular. That kind of repositioning reset is often required to seal a durable bottom.So, if we are in the later innings, the next question is: where do you want to be? For me, it's about balance and I think the right approach is a barbell of cyclicals, and quality growth.On the cyclical side, I like Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials. These are the areas where earnings momentum remains strong and valuations have come down meaningfully. It's also what was leading prior to the start of the Iran conflict and reflects our core view that we are still in the early stages of a recovery from the rolling recession. Last week's jobs report supports that view with private payrolls increasing by [$]186 000, one of the largest rises in three years. On the growth side, I'm focused on the hyperscalers as a very good risk reward at this point. These companies are trading at roughly the same multiple as defensive sectors like Staples, but with more than three times the earnings growth. Meanwhile the sentiment and positioning is as bad as it's been since 2022's bear market when these companies were showing negative earnings growth. So, what could go wrong? The main risk to equities is still rates and central bank policy, not the war.We know this because we just flipped back into a regime where stocks and yields are negatively correlated where higher rates put pressure on valuations. 4.5 percent on a 10-year Treasury bond continues to be a key threshold where stock valuations are likely to get worse before they rebound durably. Furthermore, bond volatility and Fed expectations are driving tighter financial conditions—and that's been the real source of market stress lately.But here's the irony: that tightening is also what ultimately sets up a more dovish pivot from the Fed and other central banks. If financial conditions tighten too much, the Fed has the flexibility to respond—and we have plenty of evidence that there's willingness to do that over the past several years.Bottom line? The market has already done a lot of the hard work. It has priced in geopolitical risk, private credit concerns and even negative side effects from AI, which is ultimately a productivity enhancing technology.What we're dealing with now is the final hurdle – policy, rates levels and volatility. And once we get through that, I think the path forward becomes a lot clearer.But remember, markets don't wait for certainty – they move ahead of it. You should, too.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Bridget Youngs with Terminus Industrials

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 26, 2026 21:52 Transcription Available

Industrial Talk is onsite at PowerGen and talking to Bridget Youngs, Founder at Terminus Industrials about "Disrupting the transformer manufacturing market". Bridget Youngs, founder of Terminus, discussed her company's innovative approach to transformer manufacturing. Terminus aims to reduce production time from months to under two weeks by automating processes and using AI and robotics. They focus on 138-34.5 kV transformers, a critical need in the ERCOT territory. Bridget highlighted the challenges of standardizing equipment across 1,700 utilities and the inefficiencies in current manufacturing. Terminus plans to launch products in Q3 2027, leveraging a team with expertise from companies like GE and Tesla to streamline design and manufacturing. Outline Introduction and Welcome to Industrial Talk Scott introduces the episode of Industrial Talk, sponsored by the Propane Education and Research Council, focusing on safety, training, and innovative propane power technology.Scott thanks listeners for joining the top industrial podcast, celebrating industry professionals who solve problems daily.The podcast is broadcasting live from Power Gen in San Antonio, focusing on asset management and power generation. Introduction of Bridget Youngs Scott introduces Bridget Youngs, who is in the "hot seat" to discuss transformers.Bridget thanks Scott for having her and mentions the presence of many interested buyers and sellers at the event.Bridget shares her background in power development, including 10 years in oil and gas, renewables, and working for the federal government.She explains her decision to start Terminus, a company manufacturing large power transformers. Challenges and Opportunities in Transformer Manufacturing Bridget discusses the long lead times for interconnection with utilities, which can take 2 to 5 years.She highlights the shift in the longest lead time item from bureaucratic processes to equipment availability, particularly power transformers.Bridget explains her work on automating shipbuilding and how similar principles can be applied to power transformers.Terminus is focused on retooling and engineering equipment to quickly manufacture dynamic assets, reducing labor costs and production time. Specifics of Terminus' Transformer Manufacturing Bridget details the size range of transformers Terminus is focusing on, starting with 138 to 34.5 KV.She explains the demand for these transformers in the ERCOT territory, which has the longest 138 KV line.Bridget discusses the challenges of standardizing transmission voltage and the variations among different utility territories.She emphasizes the need for engineering order due to the different standards and safety measures required for equipment. Manufacturing Process and Innovations Bridget outlines the five major steps in transformer manufacturing: cutting and stacking cores, winding coils, drying in an autoclave, assembling the tank, and testing.She describes Terminus' approach to setting up a manufacturing line that can handle different sizes of transformers efficiently.Bridget highlights the team's mix of experienced engineers and robotics experts from companies like Tesla and John Deere.She discusses the importance of iterating quickly and carefully to avoid catastrophic failures in the deployed assets. Future Plans and Market Impact Bridget mentions that Terminus plans to start rolling out products in Q3 2027, primarily focusing on 138 to 34.5 KV transformers.She explains the design process, which involves pairing experienced engineers with software engineers to streamline the design and manufacturing process.Bridget emphasizes the importance of automation in reducing downtime and costs, despite higher labor and material costs in the US.She highlights the potential for delivering cheaper, safer, and more reliable assets to users on the grid and developers. Conclusion and Call to Action Scott praises Bridget's innovative approach to transformer manufacturing and the potential impact on the market.Bridget provides contact information for Terminus, encouraging listeners to reach out on LinkedIn or through the company's website.Scott encourages listeners to connect with Bridget and other problem solvers at events like Power Gen.The podcast concludes with a call to be bold, brave, and disruptive in the industry, inspired by Bridget's story. If interested in being on the Industrial Talk show, simply contact us and let's have a quick conversation. Finally, get your exclusive free access to the Industrial Academy and a series on “Why You Need To Podcast” for Greater Success in 2026. All links designed for keeping you current in this rapidly changing Industrial Market. Learn! Grow! Enjoy! BRIDGET YOUNGS' CONTACT INFORMATION: Personal LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bridget-youngs/ Company LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/terminusindustrials/ Company Website: https://www.terminusindustrials.com/ PODCAST VIDEO: https://youtu.be/eMBfz5peKU0 THE STRATEGIC REASON "WHY YOU NEED TO PODCAST": OTHER GREAT INDUSTRIAL RESOURCES: NEOM: https://www.neom.com/en-us Hexagon: https://hexagon.com/ Arduino: https://www.arduino.cc/ Fictiv: https://www.fictiv.com/ Hitachi Vantara: https://www.hitachivantara.com/en-us/home.html Industrial Marketing Solutions: https://industrialtalk.com/industrial-marketing/ Industrial Academy: https://industrialtalk.com/industrial-academy/ Industrial Dojo: https://industrialtalk.com/industrial_dojo/ We the 15: https://www.wethe15.org/ YOUR INDUSTRIAL DIGITAL TOOLBOX: LifterLMS: Get One Month Free for $1 – https://lifterlms.com/ Active Campaign: Active Campaign Link Social Jukebox: https://www.socialjukebox.com/ Industrial Academy (One Month Free Access And One Free License For Future Industrial Leader): Business Beatitude the Book Do you desire a more joy-filled, deeply-enduring sense of accomplishment and success? 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504. American Dynamism: The Future of U.S. Industrials, Backing Companies with Major Production Components, Manufacturing Sovereignty, and Why Space Dominance is Critical (David Ulevitch)

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2026 44:36

David Ulevitch of Andreessen Horowitz joins Nick to discuss American Dynamism: The Future of U.S. Industrials, Backing Companies with Major Production Components, Manufacturing Sovereignty, and Why Space Dominance is Critical. In this episode we cover: Challenges in Venture Capital and Investment Philosophy Handling Startups and Market Pivots Navigating Dual-Use Startups Government Sales and Market Education Long-Term Revenue and Production Challenges American Dynamism Practice and Investment Thesis Supply Chain and Vertical Integration Policy Advocacy and Government Affairs Future of American Dynamism and Energy Investments Guest Links: David's LinkedIn David's X a16z's LinkedIn a16z's Website The host of The Full Ratchet is Nick Moran of New Stack Ventures, a venture capital firm committed to investing in founders outside of the Bay Area. We're proud to partner with Ramp, the modern finance automation platform. Book a demo and get $150—no strings attached. Want to keep up to date with The Full Ratchet? Follow us on social. You can learn more about New Stack Ventures by visiting our LinkedIn and Twitter.

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Why Stocks Keep Rising Despite AI Anxiety

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 24, 2026 4:39

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he still believes in a growth cycle for equity markets, even as investors show growing concerns around AI.Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns around AI disruption. It's Tuesday, February 24th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week you could feel it, that anxious undercurrent in the market. The headlines were noisy, volatility ticked higher, and AI disruption, once again, dominated investor conversations. But beneath the surface level unease something important happened. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index pushed to a new relative high, keeping our broadening thesis alive and well. On one hand, investors are worried about AI driven disruption, CapEx intensity, and potential labor force reductions. On the other hand, capital is still flowing into formerly lagging areas of the market, just as the median stock is seeing its strongest earnings growth in four years. Let's unpack this. First, there's concern AI will lead to job losses. But even if that's the case, there's typically a phase-in period. Companies don't just eliminate labor overnight. Importantly, before these productivity gains are fully realized, we need broad enterprise adoption. That means building out the agentic application layer, integrating AI into workflows, retraining systems and processes. That takes time, and it is still early days in that regard. Second, what we're seeing now is typical of a major investment cycle. Volatility increases as markets challenge the pace of unbridled spending. Dispersion increases as investors debate winners and losers. Leadership rotates, sometimes sharply. There's also something different this time compared to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Today we're in an early cycle earnings backdrop. We've just emerged from what was effectively a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. So, as capital rotates out of the perceived structural losers, it's not just chasing long-term AI beneficiaries, it's also finding classic cyclical winners. On the losing side is long duration services-oriented sectors, particularly software. These areas are more sensitive to uncertainty around longer term cash flows. This area also has a large overhang of private capital deployed over the last 10 to 15 years. There are other forces at play too. Small cap growth, arguably the longest duration segment of the market, began breaking down in late January around the time Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed chair. While major indices barely reacted, more speculative areas may be responding to expectations of tighter liquidity given Warsh's, reputation as a balance sheet hawk. Finally, equity markets are typically more volatile when new Fed chairs assume office. Bottom line, our broader thesis of an early cycle rolling recovery remains intact. Market internals are supportive even if index level action feels choppy. That said, near term volatility is likely to persist as we enter a weaker seasonal window for retail demand, while liquidity remains ample, but far from abundant. With this backdrop, a quality cyclical barbell with healthcare makes sense. In small caps, the higher quality S&P 600 looks more attractive than the Russell 2000. And any short-term volatility could present opportunities to add exposure in preferred cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Industrials, and Financials. Of course, risks remain. AI adoption could accelerate faster than expected, pressuring labor markets more abruptly. Pricing power could erode as efficiency spread, and policy makers could react in ways that slow the CapEx cycle while crowded momentum positioning remains vulnerable. Nevertheless, the signal from the internals is clear. Beneath the volatility this looks less like a market rolling over, and more like one that is confirming an early cycle economic expansion. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

Dow Jones Industrials Cross 50000 for First Time

WSJ Whatâ€™s News

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 14:10

P.M. Edition for Feb. 6. Stocks bounced back today from a tech selloff. We hear from WSJ markets reporters David Uberti and Jack Pitcher about how that took the Dow over a historic milestone of 50000 and what that means. Plus, President Trump posts, then deletes, a video depicting former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama as apes. And Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has only been in her role for a few months, but she's already betting her seat on a snap election this Sunday. WSJ Tokyo bureau chief Jason Douglas joins to discuss how Takaichi hopes to cement her power and move Japan closer to the U.S. Alex Ossola hosts. Your Money Briefing episode featuring Lauryn Williams: Going for Gold: The Financial Hurdles Facing Olympic Athletes Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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A New Playbook for Equity Investors