Podcasts about agtmael

Peter van Agtmael was born in Washington DC in 1981. He graduated from Yale University with a BA in History in 2003. Since 2006, his work has largely concentrated on the United States and the post-9/11 wars. He has received a Guggenheim Fellowship, the W. Eugene Smith Grant, an ICP Infinity Award, the Aaron Siskind … Continue reading "Episode 107: Peter van Agtmael (Conflict Photography)" The post Episode 107: Peter van Agtmael (Conflict Photography) first appeared on A Photojournalism Podcast for Everyone.

In this episode of PhotoWork with Sasha Wolf, substitute host, Michael Chovan-Dalton continues his Chico Review recordings, this time with photographer, Ben Brody. Ben joined Michael to talk about his two books, Attention Servicemember and 300m both published by Mass Books which was started by Ben and Peter van Agtmael. Ben and Michael talk about Ben's experience as an Army photographer during the American war in Iraq and why he chose to be a civilian freelance photographer during the war in Afghanistan. Ben talks about how Attention Servicemember and 300m are part of his self-reckonining with his role in creating propaganda. They also talk about his work with The GroundTruth Project, an organization dedicated to local journalism in under covered communities. Note: Attention Servicemember was first published by Red Hook Editions. https://www.photobrody.com - https://www.massbooks.co Ben Brody is an independent photographer, educator, and picture editor working on long-form projects related to the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and their aftermath. He is the Director of Photography for The GroundTruth Project and Report for America, and a co-founder of Mass Books. His first book, Attention Servicemember, was shortlisted for the 2019 Aperture - Paris Photo First Book Award and is now in its second edition. Ben holds an MFA from Hartford Art School's International Low-Residency Photography program. He resides in western Massachusetts.

Continuing with my recordings at the 2024 Chico Review, Ben Brody joins me to talk about his two books, Attention Servicemember and 300m both published by Mass Books which was started by Ben and Peter van Agtmael. We talk about Ben's experience as an Army photographer during the American war in Iraq and why he chose to be a civilian freelance photographer during the war in Afghanistan. Ben and I talk about how Attention Servicemember and 300m are part of his self-reckonining with his role in creating propaganda. We also talk about his work with The GroundTruth Project, an organization dedicated to local journalism in under covered communities. Note: Attention Servicemember was first published by Red Hook Editions. This podcast is sponsored by the Charcoal Book Club Begin Building your dream photobook library today at https://charcoalbookclub.com - https://www.photobrody.com - https://www.massbooks.co - Ben Brody is an independent photographer, educator, and picture editor working on long-form projects related to the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and their aftermath. He is the Director of Photography for The GroundTruth Project and Report for America, and a co-founder of Mass Books. His first book, Attention Servicemember, was shortlisted for the 2019 Aperture - Paris Photo First Book Award and is now in its second edition. Ben holds an MFA from Hartford Art School's International Low-Residency Photography program. He resides in western Massachusetts. Support Real Photo Show with Michael Chovan-Dalton by contributing to their tip jar: https://tips.pinecast.com/jar/real-photo-show

In Co-Illusion, writer and critic David Levi Strauss, tracks the rise of Donald Trump and the media landscape that warped around him. In this interview he discusses the language of Trump, the forthcoming election, and the changing relationship between image and truth. The political crisis that sneaked up on America--the rise of Trump and Trumpism--has revealed the rot at the core of American exceptionalism. Recent changes in the way words and images are produced and received have made the current surreality possible; communication through social media, by design, maximizes attention and minimizes scrutiny. In Co-Illusion, the noted writer on art, photography, and politics David Levi Strauss bears witness to the new "iconopolitics" in which words and images lose their connection to reality. The collusion that fueled Trump's rise was the secret agreement of voters and media consumers--their "co-illusion"--to set aside the social contract. Strauss offers dispatches from the epicenter of our constitutional earthquake, writing first from the 2016 Democratic and Republican conventions and then from the campaign. After the election, he switches gears, writing in the voices of the regime and of those complicit in its actions--from the thoughts of the President himself ("I am not a mistake. I am not a fluke, or a bug in the system. I am the System") to the reflections of a nameless billionaire tech CEO whose initials may or may not be M. Z. Finally, Strauss shows us how we might repair the damage to the public imaginary after Trump exits the scene. Photographs by celebrated documentary photographers Susan Meiselas and Peter van Agtmael accompany the texts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/american-studies

In Co-Illusion, writer and critic David Levi Strauss, tracks the rise of Donald Trump and the media landscape that warped around him. In this interview he discusses the language of Trump, the forthcoming election, and the changing relationship between image and truth. The political crisis that sneaked up on America--the rise of Trump and Trumpism--has revealed the rot at the core of American exceptionalism. Recent changes in the way words and images are produced and received have made the current surreality possible; communication through social media, by design, maximizes attention and minimizes scrutiny. In Co-Illusion, the noted writer on art, photography, and politics David Levi Strauss bears witness to the new "iconopolitics" in which words and images lose their connection to reality. The collusion that fueled Trump's rise was the secret agreement of voters and media consumers--their "co-illusion"--to set aside the social contract. Strauss offers dispatches from the epicenter of our constitutional earthquake, writing first from the 2016 Democratic and Republican conventions and then from the campaign. After the election, he switches gears, writing in the voices of the regime and of those complicit in its actions--from the thoughts of the President himself ("I am not a mistake. I am not a fluke, or a bug in the system. I am the System") to the reflections of a nameless billionaire tech CEO whose initials may or may not be M. Z. Finally, Strauss shows us how we might repair the damage to the public imaginary after Trump exits the scene. Photographs by celebrated documentary photographers Susan Meiselas and Peter van Agtmael accompany the texts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/communications

In Co-Illusion, writer and critic David Levi Strauss, tracks the rise of Donald Trump and the media landscape that warped around him. In this interview he discusses the language of Trump, the forthcoming election, and the changing relationship between image and truth. The political crisis that sneaked up on America--the rise of Trump and Trumpism--has revealed the rot at the core of American exceptionalism. Recent changes in the way words and images are produced and received have made the current surreality possible; communication through social media, by design, maximizes attention and minimizes scrutiny. In Co-Illusion, the noted writer on art, photography, and politics David Levi Strauss bears witness to the new "iconopolitics" in which words and images lose their connection to reality. The collusion that fueled Trump's rise was the secret agreement of voters and media consumers--their "co-illusion"--to set aside the social contract. Strauss offers dispatches from the epicenter of our constitutional earthquake, writing first from the 2016 Democratic and Republican conventions and then from the campaign. After the election, he switches gears, writing in the voices of the regime and of those complicit in its actions--from the thoughts of the President himself ("I am not a mistake. I am not a fluke, or a bug in the system. I am the System") to the reflections of a nameless billionaire tech CEO whose initials may or may not be M. Z. Finally, Strauss shows us how we might repair the damage to the public imaginary after Trump exits the scene. Photographs by celebrated documentary photographers Susan Meiselas and Peter van Agtmael accompany the texts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As China's leader Xi Jinping begins an unprecedented third term in office, it's fair to ask: how much will China's future affect the whole world? On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks to global markets expert and investor Antoine van Agtmael, who believes this will be the "Chinese century." They discuss the future of globalization and whether the term “emerging markets”— a term coined by Agtmael himself to describe nations transitioning to developed economies – still applies to much of the world. Some of those economies are in decline, but some like China have gone beyond that category. In fact, China is now the second largest economy in the world and is set to surpass the largest, that of the United States.

As China's leader Xi Jinping begins an unprecedented third term in office, it's fair to ask: how much will China's future affect the whole world? On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks to global markets expert and investor Antoine van Agtmael, who believes this will be the "Chinese century." They discuss the future of globalization and whether the term “emerging markets”— a term coined by Agtmael himself to describe nations transitioning to developed economies – still applies to much of the world. Some of those economies are in decline, but some like China have gone beyond that category. In fact, China is now the second largest economy in the world and is set to surpass the largest, that of the United States. Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

Conflict photography of the past twenty years is a subject we have discussed in previous episodes with photographers, psychologists, and scholars, but our very welcomed guest, photographer Peter van Agtmael adds his well-articulated thoughts on the subject, including his own motivations and challenges while covering the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the ramifications of those wars here in the United States and elsewhere. On this episode of the B&H Photography Podcast, we reflect on the mindset of a young man wanting to bear witness to history and the evolution of his thoughts after many assignments and embeds. We also learn about aspects of his work, from the intra-personal to the technical and how these have also changed over the course of an almost two-decade career.   The work of van Agtmael has been published in The New York Times, The Guardian, and The New Yorker; he is a Guggenheim Fellow; a winner of multiple World Press Awards; and a member of the Magnum Agency. He has also authored several books of his work, which take a deeper narrative and conceptual dive into his images from this same general body of work. He is not alone in this endeavor, but it is this balance, this ability to conceptualize his work within the news sphere and in the nuanced context of a personal photo book that is quite interesting. Quiet images from ten years ago have a tragic power today.   His most recent book, Sorry for the War, a subtle and powerful exploration of the disconnect between the United States home front and the actual wars themselves is the main topic during the second half of the show, and we discuss the differences between this and his other books. We talk about the editing process, collaboration, and the formal decisions that go into making a book that is meant to be a historical as well as a personal statement.   We also take a minute to talk about gear choices, the aesthetics of technical limits, and we hear about stories he's covered as disparate as earthquakes in Haiti, Hollywood award tours, and recent politics and protest. Throughout, van Agtmael offers insightful answers to the very complicated questions posed by and of contemporary photojournalism. Please join us, and also check out his work with the Arab Documentary Photography Program.   Guest: Peter van Agtmael Photograph © Peter van Agtmael https://www.bhphotovideo.com/explora/podcasts http://www.petervanagtmael.net/ http://arabdocphotography.org/  

The Visualising War podcast recently interviewed award-winning photographer Peter van Agtmael. Over a career spanning 20 years, Peter has focused on representing different manifestations of the US at war. His first book, ‘Disco Night Sept. 11', brought together images of the USA at war in the post-9/11 era, from 2006-2013. His second, ‘Buzzing at the Sill', focused on the US in the shadow of recent wars; it does not capture images of armed conflict, but examines aspects of American society that have been shaped by and helped to shape the wars that America has fought. His third book, ‘Sorry for the War' explores the vast dissonance between how the United States has visualised itself at war and how people on the ground (soldiers and civilians) have experienced those wars, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan. Peter has won multiple prizes for these books, as well as being highly sought after by media organisations such as the New York Times and the New Yorker. For the last ten years he has also been capturing images of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine.In the podcast, Peter talks about what motivated him to go to war as a photographer in the first place, and how his understanding of war and his approach to conflict photography have evolved over time. Aware that a single photograph can only capture one person's perspective and a tiny slice of time, Peter underlines the importance of a multiplicity of images which together can build a sense of context, change over time and diversity of experience. He tries to document wars as holistically as possible, while still going deep and getting personal. He is particularly interested in unpicking the gap between our habits of imagining, viewing and understanding conflict and how it impacts people for real. There is a strong sense in his books that he is myth-busting, as he invites us to look critically at our own habits of seeing and really stretches our understanding of war's dynamics, impacts and aftermath.  Among other things, Peter talks about the aesthetics of conflict photography, the authenticity and 'trustworthiness' of the images he tries to take, and his role as a narrator - both when taking individual photographs and when curating them into photographic collections and books. We discuss the opportunities that long-form books can offer compared with short-form articles, in documenting both multiplicity and complexity. And we consider what written text can add to images, in contextualising and sometimes even dispelling a mirage. Along the way we reflect on the vital role that photography and a reflective press can play in deconstructing misconceptions and idealisations of war that political rhetoric and other social pressures so often rely on. We hope you enjoy the episode! This blog captures some of the images that Peter talks about; and listeners can see more on Peter's website and instagram page. For a version of our podcast with close captions, please use this link. For more information about individuals and their projects, please visit the University of St Andrews Visualising War website. Music composed by Jonathan YoungSound mixing by Zofia Guertin

一週財經聚焦 一，7月27日，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）發佈新的經濟預測，上調了對美國等富裕經濟體的經濟預估，於此同時也下調了一些發展中國家的經濟預估。看來變種病毒的橫行霸道正在拉開全球的差距，我們該如何看待？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●CNN：〈Vaccine shortage holds back developing world as rich economies roar ahead〉(疫苗短缺，制衡了發展中國家追趕已開發國家的腳步) ●Macau News澳門日報：〈WTO says disparities in vaccine rates can hit economic rebound〉(WTO認為，令人失望的疫苗接種會打擊經濟反彈) ●Economist經濟學人：〈Why have some places suffered more covid-19 deaths than others?〉(為什麼有些國家疫情致死率比其他國家高？) 分析解讀 IMF的預期調整再次提醒我們，在經濟復甦的道路上，疫情的變化莫測只會加劇全球的貧富不均。國際貨幣基金組織發佈的報告名為《全球經濟展望》（World Economic Outlook），特別的是，相比上個季度，報告中仍然維持了對2021年全球經濟增長6%的預估。 IMF經濟學家表示，根本原因，在於低收入國家新冠疫苗接種率遠遠低於發達國家，再加上變種病毒的高傳播力，使疫情的持續威脅超過預期。 報告看好美國的復甦前景。今年4月IMF預測美國今年增長6.5%，明年增長3.5%；三個月過去了，對美國今明兩年的經濟增長預測大幅增加了0.5和1.4個百分點，達到7.0%和4.9%。 如此樂觀的預測有兩個原因：一方面，美國疫苗接種符合預期進展；另一方面，拜登政府提出的規模龐大的刺激計劃，如果國會批准，將有四兆美元資金湧向基礎設施、教育和家庭支持。 既然全球總增長率預測不變，那麼當然其他國家會有漲就有跌。 IMF對印度2021年的增長預測下調至9.5%，雖然還維持在高位，但相比之前的預測，下調了3個百分點。原因在於今年印度持續地與疫情纏鬥，拖累了經濟復甦。 與印度情況相似的還有東南亞諸國，IMF下調了對印尼、馬來西亞、菲律賓、泰國和越南的經濟前景。這些國家難以像中國大陸、香港、韓國、台灣等地，將病例數控制在極低水平，同時受制於疫苗供給等原因，疫苗接種率又不及歐美等國家。 相比之下，IMF對中國2021年的增長預測下調0.3個百分點，理由是公共投資和整體財政支持的縮減。 從這份報告來看，我們可以得到以下3個結論： 第一，IMF首席經濟學家Gita Gopinath表示：「高於預期的疫苗接種率和經濟恢復正常，帶動增長預估上調，而一些國家（尤其是印度）缺乏疫苗和新冠疫情捲土重來，導致了增長預估被下調。」在發達經濟體中，近40%的人口已充分接種疫苗，而在新興市場經濟體中，這一比例為11%，在低收入發展中國家，這一比例更小。 第二，香港中文大學商學院助理教授胡榮表示，疫情無疑帶來了巨大挑戰，由於各國在處理經濟危機和獲得疫苗的能力上存在巨大差異，疫情後的世界經濟，在不同國家和地區將更加不平衡。 第三，甚至有分析認為，極端情況下，全球經濟將形成雙軌運行，各個較發達經濟體由於疫苗接種率高，控制得當，形成一個大的經濟氣泡，而低收入國家將在疫情中持續掙扎，游離在氣泡之外。這將加劇全球收入分配不均，甚至形成馬太效應—貧者越貧，富者越富。 報告也提出兩個呼籲： 首先，各國應優先考慮衛生支出，特別是疫苗接種，支持弱勢家庭和企業，投資於教育、培訓以及提高生產率等項目。而相關的刺激計劃，可能由於民主黨和共和黨之間的嚴重分歧，在國會被迫縮減。 不過兩天後的7月29日，世界貿易組織（WTO）也發佈警告，全球COVID-19疫苗接種率不均等，可能影響全球經濟復甦。 WTO秘書長伊衛拉（Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala）在世界貿易情勢半年度報告中指出，世貿最新預測，2021年商品貿易量將成長8%，2022年增加4%。 但她同時指出，全球各地區貿易表現出現明顯分歧，這差異主要是疫苗分配不均所致。她說，對於低收入國家尤其如此，目前這些國家僅1%人口甚至才接種1劑疫苗。伊衛拉表示，無法確保全世界都有疫苗可用，對全球經濟和公共衛生都造成嚴重威脅。 因為這樣，美國CDC要求已完全接種疫苗者在室內也應佩戴口罩，中小學生秋季學期在校也要佩戴口罩。東京週二發布了2848例新病例，創下大流行以來最高值；英國解封後每日新增病例連續下降一周，英國首相呼籲保持謹慎，不要過早得出結論。由於Delta毒株擴散和疫苗接種緩慢，國際貨幣基金組織週二下調了今年亞洲新興經濟體的經濟增速預期。 事實上，在Covid-19大流行發生17個月後，關於這場災難的許多問題仍未得到解答。例如，目前尚不清楚這個病毒是如何起源的，另一個難題是，為什麼某些地區的流行病破壞性比其他地區小。 為什麼佛羅里達州的的病例人數少於美國平均水平，儘管那裡的限制已經放寬了更長時間？ 事實證明，這與健康措施、氣候或地理環境關係不大；相反的，它與經濟學有關。 每個人都知道老年人的風險最大，但日本28%的人超過65歲，而全球這一比例為9%，但到目前為止，日本死亡人數非常少。 還有一些研究表明，疫情之前流感較嚴重的地方，遭受Covid-19的影響較小；但研究人員對這一結論提出質疑。封鎖的強度與病例數、死亡率之間，似乎沒有一致的相關性。 目前為止，最有說服力的是收入的不平等。在最近的一次研究中，數據科學家Youyang Gu運行了一個模型的多個版本，該模型試圖找出41個不同變量與美國州級 COVID-19 死亡之間的相關性。他發現，只有三個變數始終保持影響力：收入不平等、人口密度和人均養老院的居民。在這三者中，收入不平等的影響最大。 舉例來說，講求平等主義的北歐（即使在幾乎沒有隔離措施的瑞典），疫情造成的死亡人數低於整個歐洲；基尼系數為0.29的法國，它的超額死亡人數遠低於鄰國英國的0.34。 (基尼系數通常用來專指「所得分配的平均度」，依照公式來看，這個係數值必然介於０與１之間，愈接近零則所得分配愈平均，愈接近１則愈不平均。) 紐約州既有極高的不平等，也有巨大的 Covid-19 死亡人數；佛羅里達州在這兩個方面都不那麼特殊。 很少有其他研究人員像顧先生那樣對變數進行排序。然而，經濟學人對數十篇研究Covid-19 死亡人數決定因素的論文的調查發現，收入不平等一直具有很強的解釋力。 麥吉爾大學的Frank Elgar及其同事最近對84個國家進行的一項研究發現，基尼系數每增加 1%，Covid-19的死亡率就會增加 0.67%。 另一篇由斯坦福大學的Annabel Tan、Jessica Hinman和 Hoda Abdel Magid撰寫，著眼於美國的各州。他們發現收入不平等與Covid-19病例和死亡之間的關聯在2020年有所不同，但總體上呈正相關；更大的不平等往往會導致更多的痛苦。 有三個背後原因值得關注： 1，第一個與先前存在的健康有關。哈佛大學的貝絲·特魯斯代爾 (Beth Truesdale)和克里斯托弗·詹克斯 (Christopher Jencks)於2016年進行的一項研究發現，「適度的證據」表明收入不平等加劇與預期壽命降低之間存在聯繫。這可能是因為經濟學家所說的健康與收入之間存在關係：給富人多出一美元的收入可能會改善她的健康，而不是從窮人身上拿走一美元對他的傷害。健康狀況較差的人往往更容易受到 Covid-19 的影響。 2，第二個潛在因素是工作場所關係。相對平等國家的工人往往有更多的議價能力，因此可能更容易向雇主表達和糾正疑慮。這可能有其缺點，但它可能有助於阻止有助於傳播 Covid-19 的做法。在瑞典，一個擁有強大工人權利的國家，前線（或「基本」）工人，例如肉類包裝工和警察，平均而言並沒有比其他人面臨更高的死於Covid-19 的風險，這可能會限制整體死亡人數。這與美國、英國和加拿大的結果形成對比，後者的監管更為寬鬆。加利福尼亞州的一項研究發現，某些工作的人比其他職業的人更容易死於covid-19。2020 年，廚師和出租車司機的死亡人數增幅最大。 3，第三個因素與社會資本有關。在高度不平等的地區，人們更有可能說他們不信任陌生人或對公民參與沒有興趣。國際貨幣基金組織在 2016 年發表的研究表明瞭原因：在人們生活方式截然不同的地方，他們彼此之間幾乎沒有共同之處。社會資本薄弱幾乎肯定會降低人們遵守病毒控制措施的意願，例如自我隔離或戴口罩，而私人服從的動機很弱。 然而扭轉收入分配的超級油輪並非一蹴而就，收入不平等的一些解決方案，例如提高稅收，會帶來自身的權衡。與此同時，政府需要調整他們的疫情應對措施，以考慮到不平等。例如，這可能包括改變在感染時留在家裡的經濟激勵措施（例如，通過使用自我隔離付款）或更多地投資於貧困兒童的健康，使他們成為更健康的成年人。如果沒有這些改進，高度不平等可能會繼續意味著更容易受到流行病的影響。 二，7月29日，匯豐控股HSBC的一項調查顯示，新興市場投資者越來越擔心發展中國家的經濟增長前景，手握大量資金，但未來幾個月確少有資金部署計劃。曾經的金磚四國，曾經的新興市場，真的已經風華不再嗎？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●Reuters路透社：〈Emerging market investors worry about economic growth -HSBC poll〉(新興市場投資人憂心當地的經濟增長) ●Financial Times倫敦金融時報：〈Rising dollar stokes nerves for emerging market investors〉(美元升值觸動新興市場投資人的神經) ●The Wall Street Journal華爾街日報：〈Investors Lost Hundreds of Billions on China in July〉(投資人在七月份的中國投資損失數千億美元) 分析解讀 新興市場是什麼？ 「新興市場」（Emerging Market）是經濟發展程度落後於北美、西歐、日本等「成熟市場」 （Developed Market），但卻正在快速開發及工業化的國家，且有機會從「開發中國家」（Developing Countries）發展為「已開發國家」（Developed Countries）的經濟體。 經濟學人在2000年曾經寫道：我們這個時代最緊迫的道德、政治和經濟問題是第三世界的貧困。當時，世界上28%的人口生活在極端貧困中，也就是說每天的收入不超過1.90美元。在這17億人口中，近 10 億生活在印度和中國。 僅僅一年後，時任高盛銀行首席經濟學家的Jim O'Nille 將這兩個國家連同巴西和俄羅斯歸為 2000 年代的一個定義性首字母縮略詞：BRIC金磚四國。儘管當時四方僅佔全球經濟產出的8%，但奧尼爾先生認為，鑒於其人口，即使人均產出略有增長，這一份額也會顯著增加，而且這種增長看起來很可能，敦促投資者注意，政策制定者也是如此。 研究人員預測： 1，到2025年，金磚國家的總GDP將至少是G6集團（美國、英國、法國、德國、意大利和日本）的一半。 2，到2040年，他們預計金磚國家將取得領先。一個截然不同的世界即將到來，如果不是在人均收入方面，大型新興經濟體的經濟實力幾乎已經趕上了北方發達經濟體。 第一個預測現在看太保守了。從2000年到2011年，以名義美元的市場匯率計算，金磚國家平均每年增長驚人的17%，而G6僅增長4%。到2017年，它們的GDP就達到G6的一半，而不是2025年。截至2018年，印度極端貧困人口數量已低於尼日利亞估計的9900 萬極端貧困人口。這是一項歷史性的成就。 但2040年的預測看起來遇到了麻煩。發達經濟體和發展中經濟體的增長在2010年代大幅放緩。從2011年到2019年，G6增長每年下降一半以上至2% 以下。另一方面，金磚國家的增長率下降了近70%，降至每年僅 5%。 其他低收入和中等收入國家的情況看起來大致相似。從2000年到2011年，以美元計算的 GDP加權平均年增長率對於新興經濟體來說是強勁的9%。到2011年，幾乎是原來的一半。 唯一例外只有南亞和東亞以及歐洲的新興地區不斷增加收入。就整個發展中國家而言，人均實際收入已回落至美國的18.1%；不是可怕的逆轉，但絕對是停滯。 2010年代並不是一個糟糕的十年。事實上，就新興市場增長而言，它們是歷史上第二好的十年。問題是2000年代太好了。就對人類生活的影響而言，沒有什麼比 2020 年代的增長是否會回到令人吃驚的2000年代的高度、保持在 2010 年代足夠的水平上，還是繼續下降趨勢更大的問題了。這樣的軌跡將使發展中世界的任何重要部分「追趕」發達經濟體的說法顯得越來越愚蠢。 經濟學家曾經認為，較貧窮的國家自然應該趕上較富裕的國家。 變得富有似乎只不過是從更成熟的經濟體借用科技並為工人配備更多的物質和人力資本的問題。 然而，在第二次世界大戰之後，加入富人行列對於以前被殖民的世界來說比想象的要困難得多。 投資者偶爾會對較貧窮國家的前景充滿熱情，比如1981年，一位名叫 Antoine van Agtmael的世界銀行員工為一家新的第三世界投資基金創造了「新興市場」作為一個引人注目（和金錢）的名字。但在 20 世紀的後幾十年里，只有少數國家實現了從窮到富的飛躍：這裡是韓國，那裡是台灣。 正是在這種背景下，金磚國家的崛起才顯得真正令人吃驚。但這並不是一夜之間的成功。 1970 年代後期，中國開始了漫長的經濟自由化進程。 印度於 1991 年開始放鬆國家對其經濟的控制。主要方法類似：貿易更加開放，並控制政府借款和通貨膨脹。 在這個已經很健康的土壤中又添加了三種肥料。 1，一是持續低利率和全球化金融的到來，提供了大量資金，願意在被認為比以往更穩定的新興市場尋找機會。 2，另一個原因是大宗商品價格普遍持續上漲，這提振了許多發展中世界經濟體的財富。 3，三是貿易爆發式增長。出口製造業是一條經過時間考驗的追趕之路，曾經需要緩慢而艱難的建立本土工業基地的過程。但是，隨著曾經包含在單個工廠或國家/地區內的生產過程沿全球供應鏈擴展，較貧窮的經濟體有可能通過控制生產網絡的小部分而不是重述一切來開始生產以供出口。 貿易佔全球GDP的比重從1990年的39%上升到2000年的51%，最終在2008年達到 61%的峰值。 三種肥料中的兩種，大宗商品繁榮和貿易繁榮的額外影響都在2010年代逐漸消退。國際貨幣基金組織的大宗商品價格指數從2000年到2011年大約翻了三倍。之後它開始下跌，並因此暴露了那些在資源出口價格上漲和信貸寬松的基礎上享受表面繁榮的經濟體。 貿易增長也放緩。在2007-09年全球金融危機之後，貿易復甦令人鼓舞，但在 2010 年代中期，貿易佔全球GDP的份額開始小幅下降。 造成這種情況的原因有很多，但一個重要的原因是中國政策的決定性轉變。改革步伐放緩； 隨著政府推動自給自足，國家干預有所增加。 中國未能繼續自由化，減緩了其他新興世界最理想的發展道路上的交通。如果中國增長更多，消費模式與發達經濟體趨同，它將成為其他發展中國家更大的市場。但改革不足也導致消費水平遠低於收入相當的經濟體（如墨西哥和泰國）的普遍水平，更不用說富裕國家的經濟水平了。 中國的國內市場雖然仍然巨大，但遠沒有原來那麼大，進口也比原來少了很多。雪上加霜的是，與許多相對富裕的經濟體相比，中國仍然更加依賴製造業。隨著收入的增加和生產者在其他地方尋找低工資工人，各國通常會開始削減一些工業生產。但中國抵制了這一趨勢，部分原因是改革進展停滯不前，部分原因是刻意努力提高自給自足。 在大宗商品價格和貿易增長的提振效應暫時擱置的情況下，開啓2000年代輝煌歲月的第三個因素是什麼：利率？他們仍然很低。但是，在 Covid-19 之後的富裕世界繁榮通常對發展中國家來說是一件好事，但在這方面存在一些風險。一些經濟學家警告說，美國的巨額支出可能會以某種方式引發通脹，這可能會迫使美聯儲比目前預期的更早、甚至可能更大幅度地加息。 高利率的蔓延可能會造成嚴重破壞，導致資產價格暴跌，並從新興世界中吸走大量資本。 1，Delta變種的傳播和富裕國家以外的疫苗接種步伐緩慢，對2021年強勁好轉的希望破滅了；到今年年底，可能仍有一半以上的發展中國家人口沒有接種疫苗。7月27日，國際貨幣基金組織在 4 月份曾預計印度今年的經濟增長將超過12%，但在7月27日將這一預期下調至9.5%。預計整個新興世界今年將增長 6.3%，2022年將增長5.2%。 2，趕超的條件之一是人力資本投資；受到疫情的嚴重打擊。儘管世界各地的學生因疫情造成的中斷而失去了上學時間，但最貧窮國家的學生受害最大。貧窮經濟體幾乎無法避免教育挫折。疫情還加劇了許多新興世界的治理和政治不穩定問題。 3，在1990年代和2000年代，貿易和產出的快速增長與國家之間的不平等減少有關，但國家內部的不平等加劇，新興市場也包括在內。 當 2010 年代經濟增長放緩時，經濟體內部經濟收益的分配在決定生活水平是繼續改善、停滯還是下降方面變得相對更為重要。 更加暴躁的政治成為世界範圍內的常態，各國要麼滑向專制，要麼進一步陷入專制。經濟學人智庫製作的民主指數從2015年到2020年逐年下降。 在最壞的情況下，政治不穩定可能會惡化為內部甚至州際暴力。 4，這是在解釋氣候變化之前。 它的經濟成本已經是可察覺的，而且只會增加，而且在貧窮國家普遍感受到的最嚴重。新興市場政府將面臨損失和損害、適應的財政負擔，以及通常的難民流動。 政治不穩定和國家間緊張局勢很可能會加劇。 2000 年代的追趕步伐可能再也看不到了。但如果情況不進一步惡化，金磚國家仍有可能在 2040 年之前與 G6 的產出相匹配，並且相關的增長將非常廣泛地展開。20世紀末打開的大門已經收窄，但並沒有關閉。 然而，穿越它的挑戰無疑比以前更大。 《經濟學人》總評 封面故事 這期經濟學人的封面設計非常形象化，一個象徵雨過天晴，充滿希望的彩虹令人詫異的被灌進了一個垃圾桶裡面。旁邊幾個白色字體，大字寫的是Dashed hopes破滅的希望。小字則是Emerging markets' growth problem新興市場的增長問題。 經濟學人本週的封面故事拉回了新興市場的觀察解析。回想這個世紀初，發展中經濟體就是這個世界無限樂觀和雄心勃勃的一個來源。但今天，許多新興市場的政治混亂此起彼落，大政府思維正在冉冉升起，秘魯剛剛選出了一名馬克思主義信仰者成為總統，緊隨其後的是巴西、印度和墨西哥的執政者。這波動亂和威權主義的浪潮部分反映的是Covid-19的效應，它揭露了腐爛的官僚體系和早已磨損的社會安全網，絕望和混亂催化了一個深層次的經濟問題：那就是許多貧窮和中等收入國家正在失去趕上富裕國家的能力。 有那麼一段時間，它們中的相當比例看似有機會引領風潮，甚至有機會超過美國，人均經濟產出output的增長比例從1980年代的34%上升到2000年代的82%。後續效果是巨大的，因為新興市場的貧困率下降了。 跨國企業紛紛想方設法離開乏味的西方世界，從地緣政治的角度上來看，Catch up風潮承諾了一個新的多邊世界，全球經濟版圖得到了更均勻的重新分配。 今天看來，這個黃金時代似乎已經早早的結束了。在2010年代，能夠繼續追趕Catch up的國家比例下降到了59%。確實，中國顛覆了許多的中國崩潰論者，亞洲也出現了像越南、菲律賓和馬來西亞這些低調的成功範例。 但巴西和俄羅斯已經讓金磚國家破功，拉丁美洲、中東和撒哈拉以南的非洲國家越來越不可能追趕得上富裕的國家。即使是亞洲的新興國家也有些欲振乏力。 Powered by Firstory Hosting

This week we talk with Magnum photographer and photobook publisher Peter van Agtmael about his new book Sorry for the War and his 2020 Yearbook. We also discuss issues facing Magnum in the future. Along with his ongoing personal projects, Van Agtmael has photographed for many leading publications including The New York Times Magazine, where … Continue reading "# 75 Peter van Agtmael"

Each time Peter van Agtmael has been to war, he's gone without a weapon. No pistol, no knife, no rifle. The only thing he's carried into combat is a camera. And through that camera he has captured the human toll of war, both mental and physical. Since 2006 he has covered the Global War on Terror, working primarily in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has since produced three books of images from these wars that are at times just as moving as they are haunting. Without these works, we would be devoid of a very important and sobering reminder:  That war is an instrument so powerful, it should only be used when all other options have truly been exhausted. This conversation with Peter van Agtmael is an interesting and thought-provoking discussion on that perspective, and what it's like to not only document, but to feel the consequence of such violent action. www.petervanagtmael.net | "2nd Tour Hope I don't Die" | "Disco Night Sept. 11" | "Buzzing at the Sill" 

Converting rustbelts into brain belts, that’s how Dutch economist and author Antoine van Agtmael describes the process of transitioning a nation’s economy from an uncompetitive manufacturing or resources base, to one that thrives off the products developed by a smart populace with smart ideas.

CID Student Ambassador David Pareja interviews Antoine Van Agtmael, Senior Adviser at Foreign Policy Analytics and principal founder, CEO and CIO of Emerging Markets Management LLC. Interview recorded on February 3rd, 2017. About Antoine: Mr. Van Agtmael is a senior adviser at Foreign Policy Analytics, a public policy advisory firm in Washington DC and was the principal Antoine Van Agtmaelfounder, CEO and CIO of Emerging Markets Management LLC (and later chairman of AshmoreEMM), a leading investment management firm for emerging market equities. He was also a founding director of the Strategic Investment GroupSM. Before founding EMM in 1987, Mr. van Agtmael was Deputy Director of the Capital Markets department of the International Finance Corporation ("IFC"), the private sector-oriented affiliate of the World Bank. While at IFC, he coined the term “emerging markets” and founded the IFC Emerging Markets Database. He was also a Division Chief in the World Bank's borrowing operations, Managing Director of Thailand's leading merchant bank TISCO and Vice President at Bankers Trust Company. Mr. van Agtmael is co-author of The Smartest Places on Earth (Public Affairs, March 2016), author of The Emerging Markets Century (Free Press, 2007), Emerging Securities Markets (Euromoney, 1984), and co-editor of The World's Emerging Stock Markets (Probus Publishing, 1992). He was an adjunct professor at Georgetown Law Center and taught at the Harvard Institute of Politics and Thammasat University, Bangkok. He has lectured widely at universities and other professional audiences around the world. He holds an M.B.A. from New York University’s Stern School, an M.A. in Russian and Eastern European Studies from Yale University and an undergraduate degree in Economics from Erasmus University in the Netherlands. He is a Board member of The Brookings Institution (and Co-Chair of its International Advisory Council), the NPR Foundation (and until 2013 its Chair and NPR board member), the Smithsonian’s Freer Sackler Gallery, and Magnum Photos. He is also a member of the Yale President’s Council on International Activities and of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is married and has two children and a grandchild.

Peter van Agtmael was born in Washington DC in 1981. He studied history at Yale University, where his interest in journalism led him to take a photography course, during which he had an almost mystical experience and realised immediately that he'd found his calling.  His work largely concentrates on America, looking at issues of conflict, identity, power, race and class. He also works extensively on the Israel/Palestine conflict and throughout the Middle East.   He has won the W. Eugene Smith Grant, the ICP Infinity Award for a Young Photographer, the Lumix Freelens Award, the Aaron Siskind Grant, a Magnum Foundation Grant as well as awards from World Press Photo, American Photography Annual, POYi, The Pulitzer Center, The Center for Documentary Studies at Duke University, FOAM and Photo District News.  Peter joined Magnum Photos in 2008 and became a full member in 2013. His book, Disco Night Sept 11, is a chronicle of America's wars in the post-9/11 era from 2006-2013. The photographs shift back and forth from Iraq and Afghanistan to the USA, unsparingly capturing the violent, ceaseless cost, but also the mystery and the madness, the beauty and absurdity at the core of each conflict. The narrative is complemented by nineteen gatefolds which elaborate on places and individuals. The book was released in 2014 by Red Hook Editions, a Brooklyn-based publishing venture of which Peter is a founder and partner. Disco Night Sept 11 was shortlisted for the Aperture/Paris Photo Book Award and was named a ‘Book of the Year’ by The New York Times Magazine, Time Magazine, Mother Jones, Vogue, American Photo and Photo Eye.  You can still order a copy direct from Red Hook Editions. Peter's most recent book, the sequel to Disco Night..., is Buzzing at the Sill, a book about America in the shadows of the wars and about coming home from years of covering conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan and trying to understand his experiences and his country. The work is a stew of reflections on war, memory, militarism, identity, race, class, family, surrealism and the landscape.

How are leaders in Rust Belt cities and towns across America and Europe creating the renaissance from dilapidated factories to hotbeds of technological innovation? Find the answers as co-hosts Tim Grady and Lew Weiss interview Antoine van Agtmael, author of “The Smartest Places on Earth – Why Rustbelts Are the Emerging Hotspots of Global Innovation”.

Moderated by Karen Weigert , Senior Fellow, Global Cities. SHARE Wednesday 04/13/16 7:30 am Could the next emerging market be, in fact, the West? And where does the future of the world economy lie? Antoine van Agtmael and Fred Bakker join Council fellow Karen Weigert in a conversation on the new hotspots for global innovation. They will examine the transformation of “rustbelts” to “brainbelts,” where visionary thinkers, universities, regional government initiatives, start-ups, and big corporations are collaborating to reinvent cities that were once traditional centers of manufacturing. By producing smart products that are transforming industries, van Agtmael and Bakker argue these Western cities that had previously been written off are creating a new economy that is turning globalization on its head.