MEA Risk Podcasts

This podcast hosted by Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk LLC focuses on some of the most important events in North Africa and the Sahel that we are monitoring as of Friday, 23rd of December 2022. So this is a sort of week in review. This week was dominated by a couple of big events, the first is the political stalemate in Tunisia, and the second is about the collapse of the peace deal that was signed some 7 years ago by the government of Mali and rebel groups in the north. Each of these events are harbingers of more problems ahead.

Winter is near and Europe is facing an energy crisis after Russian attacked Ukraine. The EU and its member-countries have been looking for natural gas everywhere they can but the prospect of replacing Russian gas supplies on short notice will be difficult. Can Algeria and Africa fill the gap? In this podcast, Arezki Daoud argues that a short contribution from Africa will not be possible, but the longer term feels more optimistic. Download the MP3 file here  

Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk and The North Africa Journal visits Tunisia this November and is bringing better understanding on the challenges facing the Tunisians in their day-to-day living. Below is the transcript. - Download the MP3 file for on-the-go listening:   - View the vlog:     Today, I am in the Sidi Bou Said district of the Tunisian capital Tunis, an upper scale neighborhood dotted with beautiful villas overlooking the Mediterranean. It takes about 50 minutes to reach Tunis from Rome, and so there is clearly a European feel here even though, linguistically, Tunisia is probably the most Arabized country in the Maghreb region.  In Sidi Bou Said things seem normal, until the owner of the apartment I rented, a visibly wealthy Tunisian, apologized for not supplying milk, which she could not find in Local markets. The shortage of milk in Tunisia is pretty widespread and it is symptomatic of a nation whose leaders face major difficulties in bringing political stability and economic growth for the time being. Blame the Russian war on Ukraine as much as you want, that does not absolve the country's political and governance system of any wrongdoing. Political leaders here are always reminded over and over again that the cost of milk production is higher than the prices imposed through price control and regulation. The government decides what price to impose on milk and other products in an effort to prevent social unrest. On the shelves of supermarkets, each customer is only allowed  two units of milk. A unit consists of one liter. But the shortages have gone beyond milk, affecting many foodstuffs, such as white sugar, coffee, rice, butter and even soft drinks and bottled mineral water. Most of these products are sold in limited quantities. Once a thriving business, cattle breeding is now in big trouble.  Cows are no no longer looking healthy and animals with protruding bones produce half the milk they did a few months ago, forcing many breeders to look for ways to sell them.  The breeders have been struggling with the rise in the world price of animal feed, based on imported corn and soybeans. An increase that has reached 30% to 40% this year due to the war in Ukraine, a major grain producer. As a result, the livestock population in Tunisia fell by 20 to 30% in recent months. As I stated a moment ago, the selling price of milk in Tunisia is set by the State, which partly subsidizes the sector to support consumers. But, in recent years, the cost of production has been much higher at an estimated 1.35 dinars versus an estimated cost of 1.80 dinars.  Obviously If you are a milk producer, then you are losing money.   and so many farmers, if not most,are working at a loss. This risk of the sector collapsing is just one example of structural  dysfunctions of the Tunisian economy, as evidenced by the shortages of recent weeks. Many are due to problems in importing certain products, while Tunisia lacks the budget and foreign exchange to cope with the global increase in food prices, a consequence of the war in Ukraine. Beside Russia's war on Ukraine, economic management has been a big problem for Tunisia, essentially highlighting the lack of skills and consensus on how to solve these problems. Take the example of white sugar, which is mostly purchased abroad. The product has not been seen in markets for several weeks. The Trade Office of Tunisia (OCT), responsible for its importing, justified the disruption by evoking the cancellation of a contract by one of its suppliers, without mentioning payment problems. Tunisia ordered, at the beginning of September, 47,000 tonnes of sugar to secure its stocks, and 20,000 tonnes have already been flowing in from Algeria. But experts will tell you that the authorities have failed to set up a strategic stock of sugar and other food products and have been facing dwindling financial resources. Before the summer, the question of cereal imports had also posed a prob...

The Maghreb's biggest nations and regional rivals, Algeria, and Morocco, so far have refrained from choosing a side in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. For its part, Tunisia has had ambivalent positions due to a number of factors, which we will cover in a moment. In general, though, these nations have had no intention on openly support one or the other party in the conflict and have assumed some neutrality based on multiple geopolitical factors. Broadly speaking and setting aside Ukraine as a sovereign nation, North African states see this conflict as one that opposes Russia, an extension of what used to be the Soviet Union, against the West, a group of nations that encompasses Western Europe and the United States. In some way, they see the conflict as the continuation of the cold war that pitted the USSR to the USA. Other major factors, such as North Africa's proximity to and neighborhood with western Europe, the developing gas market, Russia's military weight and its growing economic influence on the region are among the many factors that have been weighing on decision makers in North Africa on how to deal with this thorny conflict.

The visit of President Emmanuel Macron to Algiers at the end of August shook up and challenged the Algerian authorities in their once again excellent relations with Russia. The French security and ministerial deployment that accompanied the trip of the French president and the most recent visit of a delegation of 16 French ministers to Algiers, was intended to solicit Algerian help to stop the Russian advance in the Sahel and West Africa and its deployment in Mali. And that's how competition between Paris and Moscow on the heart and soul of Algeria has been intensifying.

The escalating rivalry between Algeria and Morocco has had a destabilizing effect on the Maghreb region of North Africa. In fact, the entire western Mediterranean region is feeling the impact of the two countries' strange competitive postures. Instead of cooperating to improve the living standards of their populations, the two countries have created a toxic environment in the Mediterranean allowing human smuggling, illegal emigration and drug trafficking to overwhelm parts of southern Europe, to say the least. In this podcast, Arezki Daoud, principal analyst at MEA Risk LLC and Editor of The North Africa Journal unpacks some of the realities surrounding the competition between Algeria and Morocco for the influence of the Maghreb region.

The past months have been particularly horrendous for Lebanon, a country that used to be called the Switzerland of the Arab World. The demise of Lebanon is not only a reflection of a deeply corrupt regime and a divided nation, but it is also synonymous of an Arab world where its leaders have no concept of solidarity. In this 8-minute podcast, Arezki shares his views on the current turmoil facing Lebanon.

The Sahelian nation of Burkina Faso has been a powder keg for some time and this weekend, the coup leader that toppled the previous government has been himself toppled by another coup. The situation in Burkina's capital, Ouagadougou, has been extremely tense lately, with protesters attempting to raid the French embassy there, as France remains highly unpopular due to its policies in its former colonies. On Friday, 30th of September 2022, the security crisis in Burkina Faso spiraled out of control when low-ranking military officers announced their toppling of the junta leader, Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba. In this brief podcast, MEA Risk and The North Africa Journal's Arezki Daoud analyzes the current situation in Burkina and provides a brief outlook. Transcript:  https://north-africa.com/podcast-burkina-fasos-security-environment-to-worsen-as-jihadi-attacks-likely-to-intensify/

The year 2021 was a horrendous period for the region. All the problems that one can imagine were there, from the massacre of civilians to two military coups in Mali and of course, an aggressive expansion of the jihadist groups. Early last year saw the massacre of more than 100 people in two villages of northwestern Niger, in an area bordering Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. The targeting of civilians is now so intense that more civilians were killed than soldiers. Between January and November 2021, no fewer than 600 civilians in Niger were slaughtered in terrorist attacks, mainly conducted by an Islamic State offshoot. The figures of this year's killings are shilling: 200 people were killed in March in a single operation in the Tahoua region, in northwestern Niger. Another 160 civilians were killed in June in the village of Solhan, northeastern Burkina Faso. In this podcast, MEA Risk analyst and editor of The North Africa Journal, Arezki Daoud, address the Sahel's descent to chaos as we start the year 2022.

There has been unusual interest in the west about the political crisis engulfing Tunisia this week. Naturally Tunisia was always seen the cradle of the Jasmin Revolution, and the nation that showed the best prospect of democratization. But this week, the president froze the parliament for one month and dismissed the prime minister, moves that were greeted with great jubilation by a large swath of the Tunisian population, but also seen by many, including some foreign observers as steps to kill the prospect of democracy in the country.

This week (ending 21 January 2021), Tunisia made the front pages of global media with Tunisians clashing with security forces over the past days to complain about their living conditions. The riots, which are still underway, have been taking place in several regions, concentrating largely on disadvantaged areas and neighborhoods. In Morocco, the detention of thousands of suspects awaiting trial is clear evidence of a regime that has no interest in upholding its human rights obligations. In Algeria, the situation is even worse as the regime continues to harass activists, opposition politicians and Hirak militants. Egypt is probably the worst human rights offender in the North Africa region. This week marks the anniversary of the demonstrations in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, which broke out on 25 January 2011, and which toppled another Arab tyrant Hosni Mubarak. This is a podcast by Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk LLC and Editor of The North Africa Journal. Transcript here: https://bit.ly/3iGEJt9 Download MP3 version of this episode: click here. Episode also available on: iTunes | Anchor.fm | Spotify | TuneIn Radio | Google Play |  Android Devices | Breaker.Audio |  Pocket.Cast  

Tunisia is a boiling cauldron. It is certain that the Covid-19 epidemic is having a drastic impact on the country on many fronts. But the system put in place after the 2011 Jasmine Revolution, which was praised around the world as paving the way for the first democracy in the Arab world, has simply stalled. While the economy is facing unprecedented challenges, the very negative effects of such challenges could bring to power not only the Islamo-conservative movement that already attempted to govern in 2011 and failed, but also the party that ruled under dictator Ben Ali, both of which are a bad idea for Tunisia. Download link.

In this episode, Arezki Daoud discusses with Do Christophe Ouattar of World Neighbors (http://WN.org) how NGOs are operating in the Sahel. Topics include coping with growing insecurity, environment degradation, the impact of Covid-19 on humanitarian affairs and much more.

In this brief podcast recorded on 12 November 2020, MEA Risk's Arezki Daoud provides an update on the Coronavirus in the Maghreb region. The state of the Covid-19 epidemic in the Maghreb looks rather bleak as we are reaching the mid-point of November 2020.  As in during the Spanish flu pandemic, the Covid-19 virus is back with a vengeance in what could be a second wave. Newspapers in 1919 reported very similar patterns, whereby a second wave in fall and winter turned out to be deadlier than when the pandemic was confirmed in early 1918. Here is a quick snapshot of Maghreb countries as of 12 November 2020.

In this “In case you missed it” brief, Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk discusses the challenges of the ceasefire in Libya to stick.  Download the episode here.

In this episode, Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk LLC and Editor of the North Africa Journal revisits Algeria after the most recent brief review on Egypt. Why Algeria? because the country is bracing for yet another election on 1 November with the government of President Tebboune pushing for a new constitution. This podcast will highlight how much trouble Algeria is facing and how the long-term outlooks feels extremely compromised. 

In this 20-minute podcast, MEA Risk analyst Arezki Daoud discusses how overstretched Egypt is and what could be the seeds of future unrest. Episode recorded on 21 September 2020.  

In this brief podcast recorded on 17 July 2020, MEA Risk analyst Arezki Daoud provides an update on what we are seeing in North Africa and the Sahel. The region is experiencing tumultuous events as the summer evolves. At this stage, it is clear that the fall season is expected to be intense.  There were at least five major events and flashpoints that dominated the front pages of the news this week: Covid-19 epidemic The Libyan crisis The Tunisian political crisis The Malian crisis The rising tension between Algeria and Morocco

18 June 2020: There have been increasing calls by pro-democracy militants to resume the Hirak anti-regime protest movement in Algeria, a situation that has prompted an intensification of government repression against opposition figures and rights activists. The Algerian regime faces an exceedingly difficult outlook. Not only the country’s economy is beyond repair in light of the current unpractical and unrealistic policies and the collapse of state revenues, but the antiquated methods of repression used by the security services are making it more likely for opposition to harden its anti-government sentiment over time. In this context, the Algerian regime has squandered all opportunities to fix the mess it has created in the first place, and is now running straight into a trap that it has built with its own hands. In this brief podcast, MEA Risk analyst and Editor of The North Africa Journal, Arezki Daoud, discusses the prospect of a resumption of anti-government protests in Algeria.

In this brief opinion piece, MEA Risk's Arezki Daoud looks at the latest announcements on military spending in the Maghreb, a region that is expected to struggle with the economic fallout of the Covid-19 crisis. This brief was recorded on June 4, 2020.

In this latest brief podcast, MEA Risk's Arezki Daoud addresses the issues of instability and security in the Sahel, focusing on the impact of Covid-19 pandemic, the insurgency and how government forces are magnifying the crisis in the sub-region.  This podcast was recorded on 29 May 2020.

The holy month of Ramadan is coming to an end this week and after four weeks of sacrifice and spiritual uplifting, millions of Muslims are excited to finally greet the Eid El-Fitr celebration. But this year’s excitement is being severely dampened by the impact the Coronavirus pandemic is having on centuries of religious practice. It is unthinkable that the Eid el-Fitr will take place largely indoors, without the usual mass morning prayers, parading of children and family members visiting in droves.  Yet this is what exactly is going to happen this year in most Muslim countries. Whether you are in Cairo, Algiers or Marrakesh, celebrations and the party will be subdued. In this nine-nine minute podcast, Arezki Daoud of MEA Risk LLC reviews the environment surrounding the end of Ramadan and the challenges ahead.

This is a retrospect on North Africa and the Sahel region, for the week ending 24 April.  The review, which focuses on the latest on Covid-19 in the Maghreb, Egypt and the Sahel, is presented by MEA Risk analyst Arezki Daoud. The video version can also be seen on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpb4P1VX1aw

26 March 2020: North Africa is bracing for an unprecedented economic contraction, even if the coronavirus crisis were to be contained soon.  The fundamentals of economic growth are such, that the region is expected to witness an erosion of revenues driven by both internal and external factors, with direct hit on their own economic development and social safety nets. In this podcast, Arezki Daoud comments on the three North African nations of the Maghreb region, namely Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. More on Egypt will come in a separate podcast. [Read the full transcript here]

Today’s topic of MEA Risk podcast is to review North Africa coronavirus readiness as of 12 March 2020. The podcast is presented by Arezki Daoud. Link to the transcript can be found here: https://bit.ly/3cWJGus

In this brief audiocast, Arezki Daoud looks at the challenges facing northeast Nigeria in containing the insurgency, in a piece titled: "Borno capital Maiduguri under siege: Boko Haram wants its fall." The audiocast was recorded on 18 February 2020.  To read the transcripts, follow this link.

In this podcast, MEA Risk;s discuss the deepening security crisis affecting the northern half of Africa and argue that the worse is yet to come.

In this five-minute podcast, Arezki Daoud reports on how religious minorities in Algeria are become an easy target of the authorities, though church closing and judicial harassment.  The discussion focuses on the Protestant and Ahmadiya communities.

France's hawks are hoping for some miracle tipping point to take place in the Sahel. Their latest idea is to further escalate the counter-insurgency campaign with more boots on the ground in places like Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad. There is no place for economic development and a political path to solve the complex problems of the Sahel. There is not even a clear assessment on who the enemy is, and how big it is. In this podcast, Arezki Daoud looks at the prospects and consequences of escalating violence in the Sahel.

This brief is about the West African and Sahelian nation of Burkina Faso.  Several Western countries have recently issued travel warnings and MEA Risk has issued this first impression and additional comments on those warnings. Burkina Faso is a complex place and is likely the weakest country in the Sahel. The recent warnings from Western governments are likely tied to expectations of more violence, lots of it driven by Islamic State, and by the intentions of the French to fight them. Combining both does not bode well for security in the country.  In terms of security, Burkina's record is staggering: 499 people (civilians and military) killed between November 2018 and March 2019; 1,933 schools were closed and 9,042 teachers were forced into unemployment, while more than 300,000 kids no longer able to go to school. Since April 2019, armed Islamist groups have killed more than 250 civilians in targeted attacks and summary executions. The killings have often been justified by associating the victims with government and western forces. Hundreds of thousands of people have also been displaced. The destabilization of Burkina is linked to the violence in neighboring Mali.  Borders are tough to control and terror groups appear to have a clearer strategy of geographic broadening and regionalizing the crisis, that is working to spread it around. This means with the crisis engulfing Mali, the terror groups have been working to export the mayhem to Niger, Burkina, Chad and northern Nigeria. Frankly the whole region is in state of collapse, and the French forces, the UN, etc.. cannot seem to find the best approach to stop it. The conflict has now expanded into a more complex ethnic and communal crisis.  This is because the insurgents and armed groups have been using the grievances and poverty among the Peul or Fulanis nomadic communities to broaden the crisis into a conflict between "tribes". This has been fueling tensions with other largely agrarian communities, including the Mossis, Songhai, Foulsé, and Gourmantche, who were the victims of most of the attacks. The attacks have been cruel, with deliberate targeting of mine workers, farmers, IDPs, religious folks, etc…in a sort of slash-and-burn terror campaign. In all our assessments, Burkina appears to be the weakest point in the entire Sahel and I think the State Department travel warning is indicative of both of the hardening of the Jihadists, and signals coming from the French government of more military assets headed to the region, hence expecting a nasty fight ahead. Beyond Burkina, there is the risk of contagion of the terrorist threat to non-Sahelian countries of West Africa, namely Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea and Togo. Côte d'Ivoire and Benin have already been the targets of terrorist actions. While in Togo, a jihadist group was dismantled in April 2019. There are also chatters on dormant terror cells in Ghana. Finally, if you are operating and active in Burkina Faso, MEA Risk is pleased to announced that, in addition to its tracking and analysis, it offers the Shield and Alert mobile application for iPhone and Android devices, allowing you to visualize and follow what is going on the country any time, all time.  Send us an email at inquiries@MEA-Risk.com or just call us at US+508-981-6937 to learn more.

The Berlin conference on Libya was an honorable initiative from Germany's Angele Merkel for trying. But we fear it ended with no major progress and clear signs that the violence will not end anytime soon. In this audio briefing, MEA Risk's Arezki Daoud share the first impressions.