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House prices are set to rise as businesses report less confidence With two further cuts expected to the OCR, ANZ is now expecting a 4.5% lift as opposed to 6%. Business confidence has also taken a tumble, with just 49% expecting improvements in the year ahead – down 9 points. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking the data was taken amid tariffs hitting the markets, impacting business confidence, investment, and employment. She says there may be a hint of a knee-jerk reaction that may not last, but only time will tell. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
ANZ is speculating interest rates will drop lower than previously expected - as the economy is predicted to need extra help to recover. The bank believes the OCR will bottom out at 2.5 percent, down from the 3 percent low that was previously predicted. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says it's likely the Reserve Bank will give the economy an additional 'push in the back' to help boost a recovery. "It's too soon to make any concrete judgements on what might happen to our commodity prices or anything like that - but it does seem pretty likely that some pretty full-on uncertainty is going to persist for quite a long time." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
ANZ is speculating interest rates will drop lower than previously expected - as the economy is predicted to need extra help to recover. The bank believes the OCR will bottom out at 2.5 percent, down from the 3 percent low that was previously predicted. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says it's likely the Reserve Bank will give the economy an additional 'push in the back' to help boost a recovery. "It's too soon to make any concrete judgements on what might happen to our commodity prices or anything like that - but it does seem pretty likely that some pretty full-on uncertainty is going to persist for quite a long time." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Economists are agreeing on where they think today's Official Cash Rate will land. They expect a 25 basis point cut to the OCR, down from 3.75%. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking there's a risk the Reserve Bank opts for a different strategy after the US tariff announcement. She says if it were to be a surprise, a 50-point cut is more likely than a pause. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 9th of April, will the tariffs affect our OCR announcement this afternoon? A new report on organised crime shows we are in shambles, it's getting worse, not better, and we are losing the fight. Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell talk Andrew Little's potential run for Wellington mayor, David Parker's resignation, and organised crime on Politics Wednesday. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Early Edition with Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 19th of February 2025, the inquiry into steps government agencies took to ensure personal Census and Covid vaccination data collected at Manurewa Marae could not be misused has found the agencies failed to put appropriate safeguards in place. Marco Rubio's Former Chief of staff Matt Terrill shares his thoughts on the crucial meeting between the US and Russia on the future of the war in Ukraine. It's OCR day, ANZ's Sharon Zollner tells Andrew Dickens she expects the Reserve Bank to cut by 50 basis points. Lydia Ko won her second supreme award at the Halberg Awards last night, and Hamish Kerr won Sportsman of the year, Andrew believes they are both deserving of their titles. Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Economists are very confident in a 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate today. The Reserve Bank is expected to drop the OCR from its current 4.25% to 3.75% at 2pm. That would follow a 50-basis point cut at the bank's last meeting in November. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Andrew Dickens the data has fallen in line with the Reserve Bank's forecasts. He says it's reasonable for the Reserve Bank to expect domestic inflation will continue to fall, and while they don't want to cause unnecessary pain, they also don't want inflation to leave the bottom of the band. Zollner says that's why they're comfortable cutting now. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Optimism is rising among businesses - largely driven by construction. ANZ's October business outlook has business confidence up five points on 66, in a 10-year high. Meanwhile, the proportion of businesses feeling they're faring well, has climbed to -11 in the highest point since March. Chief economist Sharon Zollner says it boils down to interest rates. She says fewer construction firms say they're not busy than a year ago - and she explained conditions are tough, but things are starting to look up a little. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Optimism is rising among businesses - largely driven by construction. ANZ's October business outlook has business confidence up five points on 66, in a 10-year high. Meanwhile, the proportion of businesses feeling they're faring well, has climbed to -11 in the highest point since March. Chief economist Sharon Zollner says it boils down to interest rates. She says fewer construction firms say they're not busy than a year ago - and she explained conditions are tough, but things are starting to look up a little. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Most economists are forecasting the latest inflation rate to be well within the target band. There's a widespread expectation that it will fall within the 2.2-2.3% range. The latest Stats NZ Consumer Price Index number will be released just before 11 this morning. As it cut the Official Cash Rate last week, the Reserve Bank said it was confident inflation was now below three percent. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking they're picking another OCR cut in November. She says they're picking 50 basis points, but this is a really important check point and there's also labour market data three weeks before that decision. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
More interest rate cuts are on the horizon. The Reserve Bank expected to cut the Official Cash Rate again this afternoon. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner is tipping a 50 basis point cut to 4.75%,. She says it's what the market and most economists are predicting, and it's become the default. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 9th of October, it's OCR day, and all of our big banks are forecasting a 50 basis points drop, bringing the rate down to 4.75%. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner talks to Ryan about what to expect at today's announcement, and where to from here for the economy. Te Whatu Ora has released over 400 pages of financial documents, laying out exactly the situation the agency is currently in. It comes as the lower South Island is voicing its concerns about regional health. Patient Voice Aotearoa Chair Malcolm Mulholland joins the show. A big cleanup is getting underway off the coast of Samoa following the sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui. What could he potential environmental impacts be, and is it similar to the Rena disaster? Waikato University's Nick Ling analyses the situation. Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
ANZ's latest report shows businesses are feeling more optimistic for the future than they have in years. The monthly update shows business confidence is at its highest in a decade, rising 23 points to 51. Expected activity jumped to a seven-year high, increasing 21 points to 37. However, actual business activity rose only one point to negative 21. Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says many businesses are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. She says we'll have to wait and see if this hope actually impacts business decisions. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Many economists and retailers are welcoming the first cut to the official cash rate in four years, down 25 basis points, as a relief for mortgage-holders and businesses. ANZ's chief economist, Sharon Zollner and chief executive of Retail NZ Carolyn Young spoke to Guyon Espiner.
On today's episode, many economists and retailers are welcoming the first cut to the official cash rate in four years, down 25 basis points, as a relief for mortgage-holders and businesses. ANZ's chief economist, Sharon Zollner and chief executive of Retail NZ Carolyn Young join us, a former meth addict says her 13-year-old brother and three year old son are lucky to be alive after getting six meth tablets disguised as lollies in an Auckland City Mission food parcel. Horticulture New Zealand chief executive Nadine Tunley discusses the Government raising the cap on seasonal workers coming into the country in a bid to help the horticulture and viticulture industries, the World Health Organization has declared the rapid spread of MPox across parts of Africa a global public health emergency, and the Dunedin mayor is proposing a festival to promote the Dunedin Sound.
Calls are mounting for the official cash rate to be cut on Wednesday, but ANZ chief economist thinks it won't and shouldn't be. ANZ's Sharon Zollner spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.
On today's episode, the government has told Te Arawhiti - the office for Maori Crown relations - to concentrate on Treaty Settlements and Taku-tai Moana applications. Labour leader Chris Hipkins joins us, Lollies with a potentially lethal dose of meth have been distributed in food parcels from the Auckland City Mission, we hear from New Zealand Drug Foundation executive director Sarah Helm, calls are mounting for the official cash rate to be cut on Wednesday, but ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner thinks it won't and shouldn't be, and a Wellington Girls' College prefect joins us to discuss a planned protest on the fields of Parliament after finding out 13 classrooms at the school are earthquake prone.
Mortgage interest rates are beginning to fall in the face of softer-than-expected inflation numbers. ANZ, the country's biggest bank, has followed Westpac's lead by cutting its home loan and term deposit rates. ANZ's chief economist Sharon Zollner spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.
ANZ is the latest major bank to bring their interest rate cut predictions forward as the mood towards the economy changes. The bank has forecasted a 25 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank by November of this year. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says today's dip in inflation shows the tide is turning. "While it's true that domestic inflation is a smidge higher than the Reserve Bank expected, it looked like it was just technical factors - and the other part of inflation, the important bit, was lower." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
ANZ is the latest major bank to bring their interest rate cut predictions forward as the mood towards the economy changes. The bank has forecasted a 25 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank by November of this year. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says today's dip in inflation shows the tide is turning. "While it's true that domestic inflation is a smidge higher than the Reserve Bank expected, it looked like it was just technical factors - and the other part of inflation, the important bit, was lower." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Economists' Official Cash Rate expectations have proven correct. It's staying at 5.5% for the eight consecutive time. But the Reserve Bank's tone has softened, and they're hinting that inflation will return to its 1-3% target by the year's end. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Ryan Bridge that the Reserve Bank was pretty careful to leave all their options open regarding a rate cut. She said that they see it as tilting the risks a little bit towards earlier cuts, but essentially, it's going to be the data that decides when the inflation data is released next week. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The ANZ Bank has changed its official cash rate (OCR) forecast, now expecting the first cut to arrive in February, rather than May 2025. Meanwhile, The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the first time in five years, and the Bank of Canada has become the first G7 nation to cut rates. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Heather du Plessis-Allan “Essentially the Reserve bank's mandate is to get inflation under control.” Zollner said “It's the mix of inflation that matters – oil price is the biggie, which they can't influence. But homegrown inflation is very slow to fall.” LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 22nd of May, we looked at the bad news the Reserve Bank may give us today, and how serious is the threat from the Rugby Players Association to split from the NZR? In the midst of the bizarre news that Erica Stanford declared a gift of a bed, Mike revealed he was also "gifted" a bed, which turned into a big drama! Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell told us what gifts they've been given and what Mark is doing for his birthday on Politics Wednesday. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Reserve Bank is walking a tight rope when it comes to interest rates. The OCR is expected to remain unchanged at 5.5% when the bank releases its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement this afternoon. It's signalled a rate cut may not come for another year. ANZ's Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking that their view is that a cut is more likely to come next year, as inflation is coming down quite slowly. On the other hand, she said, the economy has come down quite quickly, so it'll depend on how they weigh up those two factors. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Reserve Bank has again pumped the brakes on the official cash rate, holding it at 5.5% despite concerns about lingering inflation pressures. The central bank says OCR will need to stay at a restrictive level for a "sustained" period, dashing hopes of a rates cut anytimes soon. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner has been swimming against tide of economists, predicting the OCR would go up.
Economists at our biggest bank expect the Reserve Bank will increase the Official Cash Rate. ANZ's changed its forecast, now predicting 25 basis point hikes in February and in April. That would take the OCR to 6 percent- from its current 5.5. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the Reserve Bank said it was very close to hiking it again in November. "Since then, they've had a series of small, but very consistent surprises that do suggest that inflation's just going to take a bit longer to get back to target." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
It's the battle of the bank economists, will interest rates be hiked this year or not? Westpac's economic outlook, out this morning, predicts the cash rate won't move this year. But ANZ last week predicted there will be two OCR increases. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.
Chris Hipkins, Erica Stanford, Sharon Zollner and Maiki Sherman.
Economists at our biggest bank expect the Reserve Bank will increase the Official Cash Rate. ANZ's changed its forecast, now predicting 25 basis point hikes in February and in April. That would take the OCR to six percent -- from its current 5.5. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner told Heather du Plessis Allan that the Reserve Bank said it was very close to hiking it again in November. She says since then, a series of small but consistent surprises suggest inflation will take long to get back to target. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Sharon Zollner became the Chief Economist with ANZ in late 2017. She started her career as a macroeconomist at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 1998, and has also worked at the Central Bank of Norway. Sharon created the Truckometer in 2012, which is an indicator that can be helpful in painting a picture of true economic activity within the country.Read article hereTired of missing out on early release podcasts? Sign up to the newsletter!______________________Take The Home Buyers Blueprint: Get a better home; Get a better mortgage.Sign up to the KiwiSaver Millionaire Roadmap: From 6 figures to 7; Get a Rockstar Retirement!Sign up to New Wealth Foundations here: Personal finance from a wealth-builder's perspective.Thanks to Easy Crypto, New Zealand's most trusted crypto brand and what Darcy Ungaro uses.Book in a free 15-min phone call with Darcy Ungaro (financial adviser)- click on this link.Get SocialSign up to the newsletter!YouTube InstagramTikTok: @theeverydayinvestorwww.nzeverydayinvestor.comInstagramYouTubeDarcy UngaroLinkedInTwitter: @UngaroDarcywww.ungaro.co.nz________________________Affiliate Links!I may receive a financial benefit if you click on these links.HatchSharesiesEasy CryptoSharesight: (Get 5 months...
There are signs our annual trade deficit is closing, but not closing enough. Stats NZ data for October shows it reduced to around $14.8 billion from more than $15 billion in September. Exports have also fallen by more than 500 million dollars on last year, while imports were down by $1.2 billion. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking that the gap is narrower, but still significant. She says we've had an overheated economy with a lot of imports, and we're also working through what's been stocked up from shipping disruptions. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Our largest bank's Chief Economist believes the anticipated unemployment figures show that the Reserve Bank's approach to tackling inflation is working. Stats NZ will release the latest data just before 11am. Most economists forecast an unemployment rate of 3.9%, up from 3.6% three months ago. ANZ's Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking that spare capacity is needed in the labour market to avoid the risk of a wage price spiral, and bring down inflation. She says it's not a great recipe, but if inflation and other pressures aren't tackled now there'll be a bigger bust down the track. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Some could take a glass half full view of ANZ's latest business confidence survey. It shows a nine point lift in August, to -4. Inflationary expectations are also down. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking everything has gone up - most notably the jump in construction intentions in the residential sector. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Signs are pointing to a slight slowdown in inflation when Stats NZ releases its latest figures this morning. Economists expect inflation in the year to June to be about 5.9 to 6.1 percent. That's down from 6.7 percent in the year to March, and 7.2 percent in the year to December. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking most price rises are easing. But she says food costs are continuing to rise sharply, and construction costs and airfares remain hard to predict. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What's in store for the country's all-important official cash rate when the Reserve Bank updates the OCR, which currently stands at 5.5 percent? At the time of its last rate hike, in May, the central bank indicated it had probably finished lifting the rate in its current fight against runaway inflation. Most analysts seem to take the same view. But that doesn't mean we're out of the woods yet. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner joins us now spoke to Corin Dann.
The tide is starting to turn for business confidence, according to new ANZ data. The bank's latest business confidence survey shows confidence increased by 13 points in June to -18, the highest recorded since November 2021. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the increase in migrants filling up staff shortages and the Reserve Bank potentially easing rate hikes have given the business community hope. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
House prices are looking to settle over the next few months, and ANZ says that signs are showing that we're getting close to the bottom of the market. ANZ's Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says that once it hits the bottom, their forecasts show that prices will increase slowly, and a sudden skyrocket is unlikely. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Our current period of high inflation isn't over yet. Latest figures due out this morning are expected to show consumer prices rose between 6.9 percent and 7.2 percent in the year to March. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Tim Dower inflation isn't easing here as fast as it is in other countries. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Reserve Bank is still going hard and fast on its fight against inflation. It raised the official cash rate by 50-basis points on Wednesday, to 5.25 percent. It says the latest cash rate lift will help keep mortgage and lending rates at their current levels; and help cool the economy. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner spoke to Corin Dann.
The Official Cash Rate is expected to rise by 50-basis-points today, up to 4.75 percent. But the decision of Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr will be under the microscope with major economic challenges facing the country in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle. One economist, Jarrod Kerr of Kiwibank, has suggested a rate rise could go on hold for a month while damage from the cyclone is properly assessed. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner spoke to Corin Dann.
Opinion is divided over whether the Reserve Bank is likely to hike the Official Cash Rate this afternoon. ANZ's Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking the market is pricing in a 50-basis point rise. “There's been a lot of debate about what the right thing to do is, but at the end of the day there's a pretty clear path of least-resistance.” LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Food prices are still rising, while house prices continue to fall. The latest Food Price Index data has shown a 10.3 percent increase compared to this time last year, up by 1.7 percent on last month. QV figures show home values reduced nationally an average 1.1 percent last month. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says food hasn't gone up as much as expected, but the recent problems surrounding food production may change that. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Sharon Zollner looks at how far property prices in New Zealand could fall in 2023, could it be 22%, or even up to 50%, taking us back to 2010 levels? Plus, what are the other macroeconomic influences on our economy and are they pushing us in a negative or positive direction? This clip is taken from our previous episode 'What Investors Need to Know for 2023', watch or listen here. New episodes of Shared Lunch are back in February. For more head to linktr.ee/sharedlunch Brought to you by Sharesies, with BusinessDesk. Register for upcoming episodes and submit your questions over on crowdcast.io/sharesies. If there are any companies, fund managers, or other special guests you'd like to see on Shared Lunch, flick us an email at sharedlunch@sharesies.co.nz to let us know. Subscribe to the Lunch Money email newsletter for bite-sized market updates twice a week. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Content is current at the time. Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own. Shared Lunch is not financial advice. We recommend talking to a licensed financial adviser. You should review relevant product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Shared Lunch is for a New Zealand audience.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner talks through the details of the latest inflation figures, and what to expect in the year ahead.
The devil could be in the details when it comes to the latest inflation figures. Annual Consumer Price Index data —due out later this morning— will show how much prices increased for the average household in the past 12 months. New Zealand's inflation rate for the year to October was 7.2 percent. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Tim Dower that she's expecting the same inflation rate this time around. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Sharon Zollner from ANZ speaks to Frances Cook about the rays of hope amongst the stressful factors of the year ahead. According to Zollner, our food exports, stable banking and political sectors put us in good stead, but the housing market could be Aotearoa's biggest vulnerability. This clip is taken from our previous episode 'What Investors Need to Know for 2023', watch or listen here. New episodes of Shared Lunch are back in February. For more head to linktr.ee/sharedlunch Brought to you by Sharesies, with BusinessDesk. Register for upcoming episodes and submit your questions over on crowdcast.io/sharesies. If there are any companies, fund managers, or other special guests you'd like to see on Shared Lunch, flick us an email at sharedlunch@sharesies.co.nz to let us know. Subscribe to the Lunch Money email newsletter for bite-sized market updates twice a week. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Content is current at the time. Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own. Shared Lunch is not financial advice. We recommend talking to a licensed financial adviser. You should review relevant product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. Shared Lunch is for a New Zealand audience.
ANZ bank is predicting house prices will drop by 22 percent from their peak at the end of 2021. The bank doesn't expect house prices to reach their floor until mid to late 2023. ANZ's chief economist Sharon Zollner spoke to Guyon Espiner.
The highest interest rate hike in Reserve Bank history could signal collective belt tightening for many mortagages holders. The Official Cash Rate rose 75 basis points to 4.25 percent. And that means homeowners who fixed their mortages at historically low rates will potentially be paying double the interest they are now. The banks also forecasting inflation will hit 7.5 percent by Christmas. And a recession is expected by mid next year. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner talks to Lisa Owen.
Today's Reserve Bank decision on the Official Cash Rate is almost certain to be historic. The central bank is expected to raise the OCR by 75 basis points today, the highest rates hike ever. That would bring the rate to 4.25 percent, it's highest point in 14 years. ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking there's a small chance they will go even further, and raise the OCR by truly unprecedented one-percent, to 4.5 percent. The OCR is now expected to peak above five-percent. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Inflation is expected to hit a three-decade high in numbers due later this morning, with economists forecasting the annual rate to nudge above 7 percent. They say official data from Stats NZ are likely to show the consumer price index up about 1.5 percent for the three months ended June, with key drivers including rampant fuel prices and more expensive food. The ongoing inflationary pressure means the Reserve Bank is likely to continue with aggressive rate hikes. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner spoke to Corin Dann.