Podcasts about stats nz

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) has increased 4.1% in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. As expected, the increase can be partially contributed to the US-Iran war as the largest upwards contributor to the annual inflation rate was petrol, up 27.5%. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is labelling annual inflation hitting its highest level in more than two years a “Trump spike”. Former Reserve Bank senior economist Michael Reddell told Andrew Dickens that economists don't tend to look at the headline numbers but they will be digging through the numbers to find trends. "It's a bit like the famous line about democracy, you know, it's not a perfect system, it's just better than any of the alternatives that have been tried, and inflation targeting is a bit like that as well. It's definitely not perfect." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) has increased 4.1% in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. As expected, the increase can be partially contributed to the US-Iran war as the largest upwards contributor to the annual inflation rate was petrol, up 27.5%. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is labelling annual inflation hitting its highest level in more than two years a “Trump spike”. Former Reserve Bank senior economist Michael Reddell told Andrew Dickens that economists don't tend to look at the headline numbers but they will be digging through the numbers to find trends. "It's a bit like the famous line about democracy, you know, it's not a perfect system, it's just better than any of the alternatives that have been tried, and inflation targeting is a bit like that as well. It's definitely not perfect." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's cautious optimism from economists that inflation will start falling after today. Stats NZ is releasing CPI figures for the June quarter later this morning, which is expected to largely reflect the impact of the Iran war, along with other cost pressures like rates and utility costs. Economists expect it surge to somewhere around 4%. BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking that based on their forecasts, this should be the peak. He says next quarter BNZ predicts inflation to come down to 3.8%, before it tails away to be within the Reserve Bank's band in the middle of next year. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An economist says digging into today's inflation figures will reveal the real picture. Stats NZ is releasing Consumers Price Index figures later this morning - comparing prices between April and June, against the same period last year. Economists expect it surge to somewhere around four percent. Independent Economist Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge he's more interested in core inflation - which strips out food and energy. He says it's been stubbornly stuck on 2.5 percent and the Reserve Bank will want that lower. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a belief sluggish retail spending is a reminder retailers need to stick to the basics. Stats NZ says core retail spending last month was only 0.4% higher year on year. Spending on clothes fell the most at 4.2% – its fourth straight decrease. First Retail Group Managing Director Chris Wilkinson told Ryan Bridge retailers have to be hungry in the market with strong retail disciplines, but he understands it's tough. He says rising costs and distribution has made things challenging for retailers. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Belief sluggish retail spending is a reminder retailers need to stick to the basics. Stats NZ says core retail spending last month was only 0.4 percent higher year on year. Spending on clothes fell most - at 4.2-percent - its fourth straight decrease. First Retail Group Managing Director Chris Wilkinson told Ryan Bridge retailers have to be hungry in the market, with strong retail disciplines - but he understands it's tough. He says rising costs and distribution has made things challenging for retailers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Public sector jobs keep on rising, even as the Government promises to slash numbers. Seasonally-adjusted Stats NZ data shows filled jobs rose 0.3 percent across the country last month - 0.7 in the past year. More than 6,000 public service roles were created in the year to May. ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says lifts in Government spending on health and education have translated into jobs. "When you do look at where the Government has been prioritising its spending, it is those two sectors - when you look at that sort of public service beyond those sectors, you have had a slight decline." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Public sector jobs keep on rising, even as the Government promises to slash numbers. Seasonally-adjusted Stats NZ data shows filled jobs rose 0.3 percent across the country last month - 0.7 in the past year. More than 6,000 public service roles were created in the year to May. ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says lifts in Government spending on health and education have translated into jobs. "When you do look at where the Government has been prioritising its spending, it is those two sectors - when you look at that sort of public service beyond those sectors, you have had a slight decline." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Surprise over jobs in the public service rising, despite cuts planned by the Government. Seasonally-adjusted Stats NZ data shows filled jobs rose 0.3 percent last month - and 0.7 percent for the past year. The most jobs were in the public sector, with more than six-thousand jobs created in the year to May. Infometrics Economist Rob Heyes says there's still plenty of work to do in the public sector, especially in health and education. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our economy was well on the way to recovery, driven by a resurgence in manufacturing, before the fuel crisis hit. Stats NZ data out today shows GDP rose 0.8% in both the quarter and year to March. Equipment manufacturing, food production, accounting and businesses services, wholesale trade, and agriculture were all doing well. But mining had a big drop, as well as residential and non-residential construction. NZ Herald Business Editor Liam Dann joined Kerre Woodham to unpack the figure. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our economy was well on the way to recovery, driven by a resurgence in manufacturing, before the fuel crisis hit. Stats NZ data out today shows GDP rose 0.8% in both the quarter and year to March. Equipment manufacturing, food production, accounting and businesses services, wholesale trade, and agriculture were all doing well. But mining had a big drop, as well as residential and non-residential construction. NZ Herald Business Editor Liam Dann joined Kerre Woodham to unpack the figure. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government says manufacturers share its goal of doubling export receipts. Stats NZ says equipment and food production were the biggest drivers of the 0.8% rise in GDP in the March quarter. BNZ data shows manufacturing activity's dipped again since the fuel crisis started. But Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing Cameron Brewer told Andrew Dickens things are trending up. He says signs are positive, with strong forward orders and confidence improving across the country. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Data due out today is expected to show our economy was continuing to recover before the fuel crisis really began to bite. Stats NZ is releasing GDP figures for the March quarter at 10.45. It's expected to show the economy grew between 0.7 and 1% between January and March, but it's likely to have contracted again between April and June. Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon told Andrew Dickens normally this is a phase in which we'd be able to get some strong growth, but there are still some headwinds against the economy. He says we still had interest rate relief over the past few years, but it's more a case of the Reserve Bank taking its foot off the break, but not stomping on the accelerator to get the economy going again. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A pickup in retail spending shows some consumers aren't too phased about a tough economic climate. Stats NZ data shows core retail spending in May was up 2.8% annually – not including volatile sectors like fuel. Furniture, electronics, and hardware spending is up 4.8%, while hospitality spending is up 3.2%. Retail NZ Chief Executive Carolyn Young told Mike Hosking that March and April were really uncertain, and consumers were concerned about the cost of living, inflation, and the Middle East crisis. But now, she says, people have realised we're in it for the long haul and need to get on with life and work out what we can spend. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kiwis drinking less could hurt the Government tax take, according to new reports. Stats NZ data published last week shows total beverage volumes have fallen 10.7 percent since 2020 The Brewers Association estimates Treasury is likely overstating total alcohol excise revenue as much as $180 million dollars a year - up to 2029. Executive Director Dylan Firth says it's been overestimated in Budgets for the past five years. "They projected there would be a small dip after Covid, and then it would go back to normal, with slight increases over time. That just hasn't happened." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a podcast earlier this week, Former First Lady Michelle Obama had some wisdom for the Gen Z generation (aged between 14 and 29) when it comes to employment and their work ethic. She said she wants Gen Z to understand that every experience, the bad boss, the boring assistant job, the job you weren't appreciated in, the one that didn't give you the assignment you wanted when you wanted it, all of that is teaching them to be resilient. Why is it important to learn to endure a boring job, a bad boss or setbacks? Well, she believes Gen Z's need for instant gratification means they aren't getting the experiences they need to develop the skills needed to be good leaders. She feels young people today want to do what they want to do, or what they are good at, but it's just as valuable to learn to do something they don't want to do, and to do it well. I think Michelle Obama has a really good point. Sometimes in a job you just have to suck it up to get the money and experience needed to help you get to where you want to be. But I'd argue that many young people are working jobs they don't particularly enjoy. With a 17- and 19-year-old, I see it all around me. Whether they're high school students earning some spending cash, university students working part time to pay for their education and living costs, those who've been told by their parents to ‘learn or earn', or graduates taking whatever job they can get. I also see lots of students with work experience applying constantly for jobs and getting nowhere. So no, I don't see a lazy generation afraid of a job they don't like. What we do have though is a difficult youth job market. Stats NZ figures show youth unemployment has risen substantially since 2022. The share of young people not in work, education, or training remains at its highest since the pandemic at 14.4% in the March 2026 quarter. New Zealand's overall unemployment rate was 5.3% in March, up from the unusually low rates seen during 2022–2023 and young workers are usually the first group affected when hiring slows. We also know entry-level and graduate jobs appear harder to obtain because competition has increased, employers are hiring more cautiously, and, if Reddit is anything to go by, employers want graduates with 1 to 3 years' experience, even for "entry-level" jobs. I think you'll find most young people are taking what they can get – scarcity of jobs means being choosy isn't an option. Or course there will always be some who find life easier sitting on the couch and taking a benefit – there always has been. Maybe, it's the slightly different approach to work that irks the rest of us a little. Gen Zs typically put more importance on work-life balance, mental health, meaningful work, and flexible working arrangements. This can be frustrating for employers, but there are plenty of middle-aged workaholics who have belatedly realised there's real value in work-life balance. They're one step ahead of us on some things. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Conferences on our shores are driving up international delegation numbers, which have surged more than 50% annually. According to Stats NZ, arrivals are near pre-Covid levels, with more than 16 thousand people coming in the first quarter. International delegates contributed more than $54 million to the economy, with visitors spending an average $500 per day. Business Canterbury CEO Leeann Watson told Ryan Bridge with last week's Air New Zealand expansion in Christchurch, there are more options. She says having direct flights between Christchurch and Singapore, Perth and Tokyo, will make a big difference. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Conferences on our shores are driving up international delegation numbers, which have surged more than 50% annually. According to Stats NZ, arrivals are near pre-Covid levels, with more than 16 thousand people coming in the first quarter. International delegates contributed more than $54 million to the economy, with visitors spending an average $500 per day. Business Canterbury CEO Leeann Watson told Ryan Bridge with last week's Air New Zealand expansion in Christchurch, there are more options. She says having direct flights between Christchurch and Singapore, Perth and Tokyo, will make a big difference. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first quarter of the year has seen a boom in people coming into the country for business events. According to Stats NZ, international delegate arrivals are up 50%, with more than 16 thousand arrivals in the first quarter. That translates to more than $54 million into the economy and often represents the first taste of New Zealand for visitors. Business Events Industry Aotearoa CEO Lisa Hopkins told Mike Hosking numbers have now reached 96% of pre-Covid levels. She says January was exceptional, as there were a number of big conferences during what would usually be a quieter month. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Beef exports are booming, up 12% annually. The latest Stats NZ figures show exports for April hit $8.6 billion, with meat leading the way – worth $1.3 billion. The US remains our top beef market, taking more than a quarter of our produce, representing a 54% increase. Special Agricultural Trade Envoy Nathan Guy told Mike Hosking US herd numbers are at a 70-year low. He says despite tariff uncertainty, the market's in great shape, given the US eats about three burgers per head each week. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kiwis appear to be cutting back on discretionary spending as fuel prices bite. Data from Stats NZ shows retail electronic card purchases fell 1.3% last month, with Kiwis buying less or cheaper food and cutting back on their clothing budget. Non-retail spending on the likes of travel and health is down 4%. Infometrics Principal Economist Nick Brunsdon told Mike Hosking it makes sense, as these are more discretionary purchases. He says people are bound to spend less on holidays, or even at the dentist, if they're trying to make up the dollars to fill the tank. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Retailers are feeling the pinch, with card spending plunging across the board. Stats NZ data reveals retail electronic card purchases dropped 1.3% last month. Kiwis are spending more overall compared to last year, but on cheaper food and are cutting back on buying items like clothing. Retail NZ CEO Carolyn Young told Ryan Bridge margins are being squeezed and cash flows is tight. She says the cost of things like freight and rubbish collection are up, and retailers are bearing the brunt LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The number of babies being born continues to fall, with the latest data from Stats NZ showing more than 1500 fewer babies were born last year. Danni Duncan has actively chosen to be child-free and has built a large social media following documenting that decision. Duncan spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.

Competition in New Zealand's economy isn't as strong as it could be. New Commerce Commission analysis of 22 years of Stats NZ data shows average business concentration has dipped slightly. However, smaller businesses are still struggling to gain traction against larger firms. Commission Chair John Small says weak competition in essential sectors is also weakening the rest of economy. He told Mike Hosking that while the size of New Zealand does have an impact on the amount of competition we have capacity for, we can still do a lot better than we are. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Competition in New Zealand's economy isn't as strong as it could be. New Commerce Commission analysis of 22 years of Stats NZ data shows average business concentration has dipped slightly. However, smaller businesses are still struggling to gain traction against larger firms. Commission Chair John Small says weak competition in essential sectors is also weakening the rest of economy. He told Mike Hosking that while the size of New Zealand does have an impact on the amount of competition we have capacity for, we can still do a lot better than we are. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The number of 15 to 24 year-olds who don't have a job is rising, despite a slight fall in the number of unemployed overall. Stats NZ figures released on Wednesday show young people who are not in employment, education or training, also known as NEETS, has increased from 13.3 percent in December to 14.4 percent in March. There's one group of young people especially impacted, one in five women between 20 and 24 don't have work. Auckland, Wellington and the Bay of Plenty are the regions with highest youth unemployment. CEO Zainab Ali spoke to Melissa Chan-Green.

There's hopes the Iran war won't bring a big bump in unemployment. Stats NZ data shows the rate reached 5.3 percent in the March quarter, down from 5.4 percent in the three months to December. Infometrics expect it'll rise again throughout 2026. Principal Economist, Brad Olsen, says they're not expecting any mass firings. "It's more that those hiring intentions are likely to be more subdued - i.e., businesses probably won't be as keen to hire into the future just because of how uncertain things are." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stats NZ released the latest marriage figures yesterday and they show a continual decline. 17,481 marriages and civil unions were registered in 2025, down 3% from 2024, and that was down from the years prior. The Australasian region - that's us and Aussie - also get married later, with an average age of 36 for men and 30 for women To get his take on why fewer of us are getting hitched - recently-ish married comedian Chris Parker is with Jesse.

Kiwis struggling to find work aren't alone in it. Stats NZ data due out this morning is expected to show unemployment's remained steady or risen slightly in the first three months of this year. It was already at a near-decade high in the previous quarter. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Mike Hosking the jobs being created don't seem to be keeping pace with the number of people moving to New Zealand. He says they're expecting a marginal lift in jobs, but migration's also picking up. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New figures from Stats NZ show the number of marriages and civil unions in New Zealand has fallen again, down 3% in 2025 to just over 17,500. Kirsty Ussher, Wanaka and Queenstown-based celebrant and planner, spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.

Petrol station owners admit they are profiling people at the pump before letting them fill up amid a surge in fuel drive-offs. The war in Iran has sent prices soaring, with data from Stats NZ showing fuel prices rising nearly 19 percent for petrol and 43 percent for diesel in the last couple of months. Police say they've laid more than 370 charges over the thefts since last month, and are urging petrol stations to start using pre-pay only. But some retailers say that's not a solution. Finn Blackwell has the story.

Productivity's taken another hit. Stats NZ data shows a 0.9% decline in multifactor productivity in the year to March, and while labour productivity increased 0.8%, it was a result of hours dropping faster than outputs. Primary industries are doing the heavy lifting, with a 72% increase in goods and services per hour. Forsyth Barr Investment Strategist Zoe Wallis told Mike Hosking that productivity has been a long-standing issue – the current situation is about 50 years in the making, based on the data. We haven't managed to turn the slow-moving ship around, she says, which will take time and a lot of cohesive policy from successive governments. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A construction expert says customers could soon face price hikes of 25%. Stats NZ data shows petrol prices rose almost 19% last month, while diesel prices were up almost 43%. AUT Professor John Tookey says the industry heavily relies on oil for producing and transporting materials. He says the destruction of oil wells and processing facilities in the Middle East could take years or decades to rebuild. Tookey says, if it continues, there will be major problems which could become the new normal. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The latest surge in fuel prices, and disruptions to supply chains - are being felt at the pump, but not yet at the checkout. Stats NZ is due to release its latest monthly inflation update on Friday. But new data from Infometrics and Foodstuffs shows grocery-supplier-cost-inflation actually dropped in March, from 2.3 percent to just 2.1. Vegetables New Zealand Chair John Murphy says told Mike Hosking rising costs are yet to translate into higher prices. He says suppliers appear to be absorbing the higher costs so far, but it's unclear what will happen next. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ report shows mounting pressure from agriculture, climate change and housing sprawl among other threats.Keiller MacDuff reports.

Data from Stats NZ shows that trust in our public health system has been falling for well over a decade. 35 percent of New Zealand adults invest in health insurance, many of you citing long waits and unreliability of the public system as the reason why. In a new paper published in the New Zealand Medical Journal, Dr Erik Monasterio examines whether we are rapidly moving towards the privatisation of health care. He discusses with Jesse.

Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says it's getting harder to know how much the economy's growing or shrinking. Stats NZ estimates GDP rose 0.2 percent in the December quarter, below most forecasts. But Reddell says it's also revised the figures for previous quarters. He says the 0.2 for December could still potentially be revised up as high as 0.5 percent, or as low as minus 0.1. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tonight on The Huddle, Auckland councillor Maurice Williamson and artist and local Government politician Oscar Kightley joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day - and more! Originair says it's already had to reduce flights between Westport and Wellington - and the route's now set to be axed by May. Do we think this is the right move? Should we try to fund it? The Government says it's working to find a solution as the Middle East conflict looks to impact fuel supplies and make prices go up. What do we make of this? Why has the Government's tone changed? Stats NZ data out today has GDP rising 0.2 percent in the December quarter and 0.9 percent in the September quarter, after contracting in the three months to June. This isn't what economists were hoping for - do we think things will get better? LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's fears there'll be no slowdown any time soon to the rapid rise in food prices. Stats NZ figures show they rose 4.5 percent in the year to February. Steak, mince and chocolate all shot up more than 20 percent. Infometrics head, Brad Olsen, says the spike in oil prices because of the war in Iran will do nothing to help. "We know that not only oil prices are key to transport costs, but also just the production. Now if you're a farmer, you've got to use diesel to move stuff around to run the tractor and everything else. So this is going to hit." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's hopes the war in Iran doesn't reverse gains in our retail sector by making shipping more expensive. Stats NZ data shows back-to-back increases in electronic card spending for January and February. Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young says it's not happened in a long time. She says it would be a shame if the conflict dampens the upward trend. "Let's hope it's a short, sharp thing and we can get back to business as usual." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tourism continues to be a major force in the economy. Stats NZ says it shows tourism spending in New Zealand has hit $46.6 billion, up 3.3% on last year. International visitors spent $18.1 billion – a 7% jump. Tourism Industry Aotearoa CEO Rebecca Ingram told Mike Hosking this set of data runs until March 2025, and there's been a tremendous amount of effort invested since then. She says they're anticipating that the data they get next year will be even better. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's being argued the government has taxed beer to a point where people can't afford it as consumption levels plummet. Stats NZ data shows the volume of all alcoholic beverages made last year fell by 8.3%, with beer dropping by 10%. It follows the beer excise tax rising more than 20% in five years. Garage Project Brewery co-owner Jos Ruffell told Mike Hosking the multi-billion-dollar industry is feeling the pain of this bizarre tax. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Signs of a turnaround in the retail sector as sales rise. Stats NZ data shows sales jumped by $239 million in December, compared to the September quarter – up nearly one percent. The growth was driven by pharmaceuticals and other store-based retailers, as well as electronic goods and hardware supplies. First Retail Group Managing Director Chris Wilkinson told Mike Hosking some of this is discretionary spending which is a great sign. He says potential interest rate rises could have an impact in future, but they're hoping the momentum will continue. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You want some fascinating data about how we've changed in the past 60 years? Have a look at the birth statistics out today - especially the age at which mums are having babies. Last year, 14 percent of births were to mums younger than 25. In 1995, which is just one generation ago, it was double that: 28 percent of births were to mums under 25. And in 1960, two generations ago, it was 46 percent - nearly half of all births. Today, there are now more babies born to mums over 40 than to mums under 20. And I'm one of those mums - I was counted in last year's data. Last January, at 40, I had a baby. Now, if I could do my life again, I reckon it probably would have been better to have my kids about a decade earlier. Your knees at 40 are not what they were at 30. Kids want you to run, you don't really want to run anymore. You're just tired. But at 40, you also understand the value of time. If I had my kids at 40, and they have their kids at 40, I'll become a grandmother around 80. Which means I won't have that long left with them. I probably won't see my grandkids get married or have their own children - something that must be one of life's great joys. Leaving it late means missing out on experiences that previous generations took for granted. But there are upsides too. You are simply a better person at 40 than you are at 30. You're more in control of your emotions - a huge part of parenting - and that makes you a better parent. More importantly, and I reckon this is why so many mums are leaving it later - you're more financially secure. By your late 30s, you've probably bought a house, paid off a decent chunk, and established your career. Your partner's income is helpful, sure, but you're not dependent on it in the same way your grandmother was on her husband. And that's why I don't think the age of mums is ever going back down. Women are more financially independent than they were two generations ago. They have choices - and the choice they're making is right there in the data,They're choosing to have kids later. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More women are having children later in life, according to new data. Stats NZ figures show a record-low number of under-25s are giving birth, which is half the number of a generation ago. The number of live births last year was essentially the same as in 1995 - just under 58,000. Massey University Sociologist, Paul Spoonley says he's not surprised as life expectancy rises. "There are many more children born to women aged over 40 in New Zealand, compared to women aged 20 and younger in New Zealand." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Consumer expects power prices to increase by about five percent this year and has said it is lines charges that are to blame. Stats NZ figures show electricity went up 12.1 percent last year. Consumer's price forecast comes in the wake of the government's plans to build a liquefied natural gas import terminal, in a bid to soften price spikes, when renewable energy like solar and wind don't play ball. Paul Fuge who manages Powerswitch - the electricity comparison website operated by Consumer - spoke to Lisa Owen.

Economists are divided on whether unemployment is finally starting to fall. Stats NZ is releasing its latest employment update at 10.45. Economic conditions are improving, but that's also prompting more people to re-join the labour market. Most bank economists expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged from three months ago at an historically high 5.3%, but ASB economists think it will fall slightly to 5.2% – the first fall in unemployment in four years. Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking that hiring is starting to pick up after being on the backburner for so long. He says the economy has some underlying momentum, and after waiting on the sidelines last year, firms are going to convert those intentions into actions. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank isn't expected to change its course, despite inflation remaining higher for longer. Stats NZ is providing its latest CPI update at 10.45am. Economists expect the inflation rate to remain about 3% – the very upper end of the Reserve Bank's target range. That's higher than forecast, reflecting a higher-than-expected rise in travel costs. ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Mike Hosking it's a little too soon to be thinking about hikes to the OCR, which is likely to be conditional on inflation. He says the Reserve Bank likely feels that there's still a bit of spare capacity in the economy, and that should be sufficient to push down domestic inflation, which should contribute to overall inflation going closer to 2%. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The tourism rebound continues. New figures from Stats NZ show 3.48 million arrivals in the year to November – up 214 thousand on last year, and the highest level since March 2020. November alone saw 347,600 visitors, with arrivals from the US, Asia, Europe, and China all up. Tourism Holdings Ltd CEO Grant Webster told Mike Hosking there's more to come. He says January and February are going to be even better than what was seen in November. Webster says recovery is naturally happening, and we're expected to inch back up to pre-Covid numbers within the next 12 months LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stats NZ admits there is work to be done to ensure data collected under the modernised census plan is robust.