5 in 5 with ANZ

Gold hits a new record high after the US sets tariffs on imports of gold bars. All eyes this week are on an expected rate cut in Australia tomorrow, and US inflation data tomorrow night. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton goes hunting for the neutral interest rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump announces a 100% tariff on chip imports, but markets are relaxed because there's lots of exemptions. The Bank of England cuts…but only just, and oil prices are falling as OPEC+ pumps out more crude. In part two of our Deep Dive interview with Soni Kumari about India's huge demand for metals, she lays out the opportunity for Australia's exporters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump has doubled India's tariff rate to 50% to punish it for buying oil from Russia. Markets are also wary of imminent Trump announcements on replacing key people at the Fed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Hong Kong's Monetary Authority intervenes again to stop the Hong Kong dollar falling off its peg to the US dollar. ANZ Research sees the Reserve Bank of India cutting today. And Australian consumer confidence hits a three-year high. In our deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman teases out the implications of significant job hoarding in recent years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks rally on growing hopes the Fed will cut next month. Donald Trump threatens even higher tariffs on India, blaming its buying of Russian oil. And Australian house prices are rising at an annualised rate of 7.4%. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou navigates the ins and outs of China's still unresolved trade negotiations with the US. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump hits Taiwan (20%), India (25%) and New Zealand (15%) with higher than expected tariff rates. US jobs figures were weaker than expected in July, and market bets the Fed will cut next month have strengthened. In our deep dive interview, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at the winners and losers from Friday's big tariff news. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation rises in June, driving down expectations for a Fed rate cut next month. Trump announces a string of trade deals and extensions, but not for India. And the Bank of Japan holds, but sees higher inflation. In our deep dive interview, ANZ's Dhiraj Nim looks at how the lack of a US trade deal for India, with a penalty tariff rate of 25%, will affect its economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed keeps US rates on hold, and lowers its tone on growth; Australia's inflation paves the way for an August rate cut; there are signs of weakness in New Zealand's economy; And Singapore leaves policy on hold. In our deep dive interview, ANZ's Matthew Galt looks at what's been driving local Council property tax rates up in New Zealand in recent years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are mixed this morning as attention turns to the Fed's rate decision tomorrow. Also, Australia's Q2 inflation data today will provide a big clue to whether the Reserve Bank of Australia can cut rates next month. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Aaron Luk has been researching insolvencies in Australia's accommodation and food services sector. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The euro fell sharply overnight as traders pored over Europe's trade deal with the United States and saw a 15% tariff slowing its economy. The yen fell too, along with the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. In our deep dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at how the Reserve Bank of India could deal with surplus liquidity in the banking system. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The United States and Europe agreed a trade deal overnight that will see a 15% tariff applied to imports from Europe. Markets are looking ahead to the Fed's decision on Thursday Asian time and US jobs on Friday night. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reports back from a trip he took to the United States this month. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US manufacturing and jobs figures are solid. Japan's factory activity contracts. South Korea's growth rebounds. And central bankers hit the speaking circuit Down Under. In our deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan analyses how sentiment around the world's major currencies has shifted through the year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US, European and Japanese stocks surged and risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi dollars rose as traders celebrated a US trade deal with Japan with lower tariffs than feared, and signs of a similar one for Europe. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses why a 50% tariff on US copper imports may not help rebuild its domestic copper industry. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US manufacturing surveys are weak. Donald Trump is set to unveil more trade deals. The Reserve Bank of Australia's board meeting minutes point to a rate cut in August. And New Zealand trade data shows the effects of US tariffs. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani analyses what's behind Taiwan's record export growth this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Japan's ruling LDP party loses a key election, but PM Shigeru Ishiba vows not to resign, while he's still negotiating tariffs with Donald Trump. So the yen rose 1%. And New Zealand's inflation is softer than forecasts. In part two of our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers looks beyond America's fiscal issues to the UK, Australia and New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US consumer confidence is weak. The Fed is on track to cut in September. That's weakening the US dollar. And New Zealand gets fresh inflation data today that's expected to give room for its Reserve Bank to cut next month. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers talks about the importance of rising long bond yields. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks hit fresh record highs overnight after US retail sales beat forecasts. Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly jumps. New Zealand's inflation rate is set to rise in the June quarter, and Japan's exports drop again. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari digs into what's been driving the platinum price so far this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US producer prices are flat, in an another sign tariffs aren't very inflationary, yet. Speculation swirls on Fed Chair Powell's future. Bank Indonesia cuts rates. Australian jobs data today will be the focus for the RBA. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan analyses the US tariff letters received to date by several major Asian economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation continues to come in low as FOMC members approach their next rates decision; Australian consumer confidence falls after the RBA holds; China's economy outpaces in Q2, and India's exports and imports both fall in June. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at how the Australian dollar has been trading in line with a broader array of Asian currencies than just China's CNH. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Risk-sensitive currencies are down after the EU warned Trump's 30% tariffs on exports would stop trade across the Atlantic. Elsewhere, China reports better-than-expected exports, while Singapore's GDP outperforms. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why metals prices for batteries have slumped so much. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump threatens 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, which may slow US growth and push up inflation. China is due to report data suggesting 5% growth in 2025 is still possible, and India is expected to report benign inflation figures. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala analyses how Australia's states performed in Q1. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobless claims unexpectedly fall, but markets brush it off. South Korea holds its interest rate. New Zealand's trucks show production holding up, while data shows fewer migrants have been choosing to stay in New Zealand. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for SouthEast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur highlights which Asian economies he's keeping an eye on as we enter the third quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A new round of US tariff letters include a 20% rate on the Philippines. There's uncertainty in the copper market as traders wait for more detail on Trump's 50% tariff talk. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand dovishly holds, while Malaysia pre-emptively cuts. In our deep dive interview, as the scramble for tariff-trade deals heats up, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses how the LNG market is playing a role. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US administration officially postpones its tariff deadline to 1 August, but sends copper soaring with talk of a 50% tariff. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprises by holding rates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to hold later today. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the RBA's unexpected decision to hold rates doesn't mark the end of an easing cycle. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks and riskier currencies are falling this morning after Donald Trump sent letters to Japan and South Korea setting tariffs of 25% from August 1, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut rates later today. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, has taken a closer look at the idea of stablecoins issued in Hong Kong as a way for China to de-dollarise. He's sceptical. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are braced for Donald Trump's July 9 deadline for tariff deals. The RBA is expected to cut 25 basis points tomorrow, but the RBNZ is expected to hold on Wednesday. And Vietnam's two-tiered trade deal is not expected to hit exports much. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani looks more closely at what sort of deals could be done this week, and what they might mean for the US economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs beat economists' forecasts, which lifts the S&P 500 to another new record high and douses market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year to 50 basis points. Australia's trade surplus halves in May, and UK's bond market goes on a wild ride. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur assess how growing US deficits will see Asian investors diversify away from the world's largest economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are on tenterhooks ahead of US jobs data tonight, looking for clues on the Fed's rate cut path. ANZ Research pulls its RBA rate cut call forward to July after weak retail sales. And South Korea's inflation rate may allow for one more rate cut. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk analyses the recent pick up in Australia's housing market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he'd be cutting rates now without Trump's tariffs, although he's still open to a cut later this month. Australian consumer confidence rises, South Korea's exporters diversify and Japan is still on track for a rate hike. In the second part of a deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga and ANZ Economist Sophia Angala discuss what's needed to support the growth of Australia's First Nations Economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

An unusual split has opened up on the Fed's rate-setting committee, which means a rate cut is possible later this month. China's economy is proving resilient to Trump's tariff talk. And New Zealand business confidence improves, but it's still tough. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga and Economist Sophia Angala analyse the growth opportunities for Australia's First Nations economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation behaves, and supports rates being cut in Q3. Attention turns to the US jobs market. New Zealand consumer confidence improves, but cautiously, and the final pieces of data are due ahead of the RBA's will-they-or-won't-they rate cut call next week. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton outlines ANZ Research's latest forecasts for the Australian economy and the task ahead for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US growth is revised lower in Q1 and its trade deficit widens in May. All eyes are on May PCE inflation for rate cut clues. Australian job vacancies bounce. Singapore looks set to avoid a technical recession off the back of a manufacturing boost. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen analyses how Papua New Guinea and other Pacific economies are faring amid global trade turmoil. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets are flat as weaker new home sales indicate falling demand. FOMC members debate patience vs a July rate cut. Australia's May inflation is weaker than expected. Japan's services inflation pressure builds. New Zealand exports jump. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan reviews how the latest domestic political uncertainty in Thailand, and a process to find a new central bank Governor, could impact the Bank of Thailand's policy path. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil is down another 5% and US stocks are up over 1% on hopes a Middle East ceasefire will hold. US consumer confidence drops. US Fed chair Powell reiterates patience on rates. Australia's consumers get a boost from year-end sales. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains why his latest Research Quarterly note on the world economy has the tagline ‘shaken, but not a shambles'. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil falls below US$70 a barrel and stocks rise as traders assess Iran's retaliatory attack on a US base in Qatar for signs of de-escalation. US PMI data shows ongoing expansion in June. Another Fed Governor backs a July rate cut. Singapore's inflation falls again. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at how Singapore's economy has come through tariff-related uncertainty, and how well-placed it is to handle higher oil prices amid a worsening Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Market volatility and a rise in the oil price are expected after the US strikes Iran. The USD could rise with oil. US business sentiment paints a negative growth picture as one Fed Governor breaks ranks by saying a July rate cut is possible. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga assesses how long the US Fed will hold off lowering rates as it waits to see the impact tariffs have on inflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Bank of England holds rates; Oil swings as President Trump gives himself two weeks to decide on the Middle East conflict. Australia's job market remains resilient. New Zealand's growth passes expectations. The Philippines cuts rates. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman explains how the US dollar is facing further downside risk this year as it loses some safe-haven status. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The FOMC holds US rates and indicates two more cuts this year. Bank Indonesia holds to protect its currency. Australia's job market is set to show ongoing strength. Japan exports fall amid tariff uncertainty. New Zealand's economy is set for Q1 growth. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses the Reserve Bank of India's recent monetary policy ‘clarification' after an oversized rate cut earlier this month. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil is up as concern grows over the Israel-Iran conflict. Stocks are down - also due to weak US economic data. The Bank of Japan holds amid tariff uncertainty. Australian consumers are expecting higher inflation as global tensions rise. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt explains why New Zealand's housing market is struggling to gain momentum even as interest rates drop. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices fall and stocks gain on news Iran is seeking de-escalation, despite strikes continuing. The Bank of Japan is set to hold rates today amid a hiking cycle. Extra May holidays boost Chinese retail sales and suppress production. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the Israel-Iran conflict and the ability of OPEC to respond to any disruption with increased supply. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil starts the week with more upward pressure, after jumping over 7% on Friday as Israel renewed attacks on Iran, and retaliation over the weekend. The developments will overshadow key central bank meetings this week, set to hold clues for further rate moves. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says while front-loading of Asian exports has supported trade numbers, the surge in activity is set to ease. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Soft US inflation data sees markets price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Gold rises and the US dollar falls as markets turn from trade talks. Subdued retail demand continues in New Zealand. India's inflation is weaker than expected in May. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt discusses what's been driving New Zealand's economy out of last year's recession ahead of Q1 GDP data next week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

President Trump says US-China trade talks result in agreements covering rare earths and magnets, and Chinese students. US inflation surprises to the downside in May, supporting rate cut expectations for later this year. Australian consumers look to spend. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty explains ANZ Research's call that the Philippines should pursue a fairer, or even under-valued exchange rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US and China trade talks continue this morning, with ‘more to do'. US inflation data for May will show if tariffs are pushing up prices. Australian business conditions are their lowest since 2020. Traffic movements in New Zealand show diverging economic activity. In the second part of a deep dive interview into OPEC's production cut phase-out, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why he will be keeping a close eye on what the oil bloc decides on production in September. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US and China resume trade talks, as Chinese export data shows a growing fall in US shipments. Chinese factory gate prices experience stronger deflation in May. New Zealand's manufacturing activity shows strength in the March quarter. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses how OPEC has been shifting in its strategy to phase out previous production cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The European Central Bank cuts but signals the cycle is near an end. US markets were buoyed by a trade call between Presidents Trump and Xi - all eyes are now on payrolls data to gauge the Fed's next move. Australian households remained cautious in April. New Zealand's construction sector may have found a floor. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou explains how ANZ Research developed a model to provide a more timely estimate of China's export performance. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Soft US services and job surveys support rate cut expectations for later in the year. Australia's headline growth falls in Q1, and South Korea's currency and stock market get a boost from an election ending months of uncertainty. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the economy is in better shape than yesterday's Q1 GDP indicated. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Strong US jobs data adds to the case for a Fed hold. Lower inflation in the EU supports an ECB rate cut this week. Australia's Q1 GDP growth is set to be weaker on falling public demand, and RBA minutes reveal how much a 50 basis point cut was discussed in May. In the second of two deep dive interviews into Australia's agriculture commodity outlook, ANZ Commercial's Head of Agri Business Mark Bennett highlights the challenges and opportunities for Australia's sheep, dairy and cropping farmers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Tariff uncertainty weighs on US manufacturing, with export and import activity at multi-year lows in May. Oil jumps over 3% on geopolitical risk; Australia's housing market bounces back in May, while job-ads fall. Asian economies start showing diverging trade activity. In in the first of two Deep Dive interviews into Australia's Agri commodity outlook, ANZ Commercial's Head of Agri Business Mark Bennett looks at how Australia's cattle farmers have been affected by different weather across the country. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets start the week on the lookout for certainty as US courts see-saw on tariff legality; Australia's housing market sends mixed signals, while retail spending was sluggish in April; and India produces surprisingly strong first quarter GDP. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks ahead to a suite of trade data in Asia amid tariff uncertainty, and also Australia's Q1 growth figures, due on Wednesday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are mixed as they digest a US court ruling that the Trump administration's tariffs were imposed illegally. Australian business indicators were a mixed bag in Q1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor says a July cut is not a done deal. The Bank of Korea cuts, with more to come. In part two of a Deep Dive interview into Singapore's new safe-have status, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how the city-state avoids being labelled a currency manipulator by the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/