5 in 5 with ANZ

The US Government shut down overnight and private jobs data is weak, so bond yields fell and gold rose. The Reserve Bank of India holds rates, but is seen cutting again soon. And Australian house prices jump in September. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses what's been supporting Papua New Guinea's currency, and how a wave of foreign investment is set to help the nation's economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks soften and gold rises overnight as fears grow about a US Government shutdown. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates, and there's renewed doubt about a cut in November. So the Aussie dollar rose against both the US dollar and Kiwi. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says there was a hint of Spring in the latest ANZ Business Outlook for September. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold surges a new record high over US$3,800/oz and US bond yields fall as fears of a US Government shutdown escalate. In Australia, the Reserve Bank is expected to hold the cash rate today, possibly with a hawkish tone. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur sees India's big IT exporters adjusting to Donald Trump's $100,000 fee for new H1B Visas. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US consumers are in a mood to spend, which is seen backing the Fed Chair's caution on rate cuts. New Zealand consumers are a bit more confident about their current finances, but not so confident about future house prices. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Strategy Mahjabeen Zaman explains how Aussie pension funds dealt with an apparent breakdown earlier this year in the traditional link between the Aussie dollar and global risk assets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US bond yields rose and US stocks fell overnight after robust US growth figures reinforced views the Fed won't cut rates much. So the US dollar rose, and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars fell. And Australian job ads drop. In our Deep-Dive interview ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman reviews the New Zealand Treasury's long-term outlook for Government spending released this week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks fall on valuation concerns. Australia's monthly inflation picks up in August, posing questions for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has a new Governor from Sweden. In part two of a Deep-Dive interview on China's deflationary pressures, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at what authorities there can do to respond. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US traders looking for rate cut direction from the Fed chair were disappointed overnight. Australian consumer confidence drops again. And Singapore's inflation underperforms expectations. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses China's domestic deflation and what can be done to turn it around. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar slides again, which nudges the Aussie dollar up again. How high can it go ahead of next week's decision by the RBA and tomorrow's key inflation data? And New Zealand's current account deficit improves a lot. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at whether the Aussie dollar is about to break above its decade-long range against the Kiwi of 100 to 115 cents per Kiwi dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

All eyes this week will be on US consumer price inflation data, to see whether the market's expectations of more than four extra Fed cuts can be justified. And the Bank of Japan holds, albeit with a surprise split vote. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers looks at why the US housing market isn't getting as much stimulus from Fed rate cuts as you'd think. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks hit fresh record highs after the Fed's rate cut, with another four forecast. Australia's jobs growth disappoints in August, and New Zealand's economy contracted much more than expected in Q2. In in part two of a Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes continues his analysis of the world's diverging oil market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed cuts and signals more to come. Australia's jobs figures today will be watched for signs of strength by the RBA. And New Zealand's economy is expected to have gone backwards in Q2. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes reviews how the global oil trade has shifted following Western sanctions being placed on Russia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar falls again ahead of a widely expected Fed rate cut early tomorrow morning. Australian consumer confidence about the long term hits a 15-year low, and New Zealand house prices are flat. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ's Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the big picture for the US dollar, and its focus on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments tomorrow morning. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and gold hit new record highs overnight ahead of an expected Fed cut this week, with more to come. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars finally join the risk-on rally. China's economy slows, and the Peoples Bank of China is set to start buying bonds. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why she's downgraded her June quarter GDP forecast to a contraction of 0.4% from a 0.1% fall. The data is due on Thursday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US consumer confidence slides below expectations, locking in expectations for a Fed rate cut this week. India's inflation is benign. And New Zealand's manufacturing sector contracts, but retail sales rise. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga summarises the likely fallout from Donald Trump's tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks hit fresh record highs after US inflation data reassured investors the Fed will cut next week, with more later in the year. Australian inbound tourism rises, but visitors from China aren't back at pre-pandemic levels. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma analyses Indonesia's worsening fiscal situation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rise as producer prices drop ahead of CPI data tonight. China's core inflation rises, meaning the PBOC's easing cycle could be near an end. And New Zealand's traffic data shows the economy may pick up from Q3. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at how China has been building up stockpiles of oil reserves, and why it's about to end. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth has a record downward revision as traders turn their attention to inflation data for Fed cut clues. And Australian consumer confidence rises again, while business conditions also tick up in August. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala looks at what has been driving Australian trade growth since the pandemic. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US interest rates kept falling overnight after last week's soft jobs data. So gold jumped to a new record high. Japan's GDP is revised higher. And China's exports to the US fell 33% in August. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen has analysed the economic impact on Fiji from the home games of its mens and womens rugby union teams, known as the Drua. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth was much weaker than expectations, raising questions about whether the Fed could cut 50 basis points next week, rather than 25 basis points. Also, Japan's Prime Minister resigned last night, which may weaken the yen today. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ's Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at why long bond yields are rising and what the weak US jobs data means for global interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks and bonds rally on more signs US jobs data tonight will be soft, and clear the way for the Fed to cut rates. Australia's household spend-up catches the RBA's attention, and Australia's gold exports hit a record high. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses the impact of US tariffs on Asian economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Weak US jobs data strengthens bets the Fed will cut later this month. Australia's economy grows faster than expected. And there's an export boost for South Korea. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ's Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell analyses Australia's stronger-than-expected Q2 growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Long bond yields rise in the UK to their highest levels since 1998 on fiscal fears. US long bond yields jump on Fed independence worries. Australia's final GDP indicators are weaker. And New Zealand's terms of trade hits another record. In our Deep Dive interview ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen reviews how Pacific economies can reduce their combined infrastructure deficit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold jumps to a fresh record high, as does silver. Australia's GDP growth is on track for 0.6% in the June quarter. And momentum is growing in Australia's housing market. In part two of our Deep Dive interview about a digital renminbi, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung unveils the missing link: a lack of demand for renminbi as a reserve currency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A US court rules Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs are illegal, but they'll keep going for now before an expected Supreme Court ruling. The Fed is still expected to cut later this month after key inflation data met expectations. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, unpacks China's plans for a digital renmimbi. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data tonight. China lets its currency strengthen in what could be a signal before trade talks. Australian firms' capex plans lift. And New Zealand businesses are still struggling. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur outlines his findings from a recent trip to Malaysia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US bond yields edge lower as rate cut expectations rise, but French Government bond yields have surged amid budget worries. Australia's inflation jumps in July on higher electricity prices. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman runs through ANZ Research's new forecasts for New Zealand's economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Market worries about Federal Reserve independence grow, pushing up longer US bond yields. The RBA's August meeting minutes support another rate cut in Australia. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at how developed economies are grappling with low birthrates following debate at the Jackson Hole central bankers' summit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

New Zealand's retail trade volumes are stronger than expected. Global markets are mixed as traders debate the certainty of a Fed rate cut next month. And Singapore's inflation is weaker than expected. In part two of our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes details why Chinese investors are funding Indonesia's aluminium expansion. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Jerome Powell clears the way for the Fed to cut next month. The Fed drops its flexible target for inflation. Core inflation in Japan remains elevated, which means a rate hike is likely from the Bank of Japan. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses whether Indonesia is about to transform aluminium supply, like it did for nickel. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks are soft ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech tonight. New Zealand's trade bounce may be at a turning point. There's price pressure showing through in Japan's manufacturing sector. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Aaron Luk has been looking at how Australian consumers react to Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets fall on tech valuation concerns. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts and signals more to come, so the NZ dollar falls over 1%. Bank Indonesia also cuts to support growth. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner dissects the RBNZ's latest forecasts after a dovish cut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets fall as traders wait on how dovish the Fed chair will be at Jackson Hole. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to cut rates. Malaysia's exports are set to face headwinds after a strong July. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari discusses what's been driving the gold price in recent months, and the outlook for the rest of 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are flat ahead of central bankers' speeches at Jackson Hole. Thailand's growth slows as tariff and political dramas hit. India gets a long-overdue credit rating upgrade. And there's another sign of life from New Zealand's economy. In part two of our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing details how China is ending price-cutting wars to cure deflation, including by banning cheap power banks from planes. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US retail sales are solid, leaving the Fed in no hurry to cut rates. China's consumers remain very cautious. Taiwan's GDP is surprisingly strong. And India is planning big sales tax reforms. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing introduces us to a new word for an important problem in China: involution; to curl inwards. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US producer price inflation jumps to a three-year high, which lifts US bond yields and the US dollar. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars fall almost a percent. Australian jobs growth recovers, and New Zealand house prices fall again. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan has been researching central bank currency holdings, including of the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US rate cut expectations grow. Australian wage growth is strong, but that shouldn't worry the RBA. The Bank of Thailand cuts rates. There's another tentative sign that the worst could be over for New Zealand's economy. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan analyses the implications for Thailand's economy of recent political turmoil which has seen its Prime Minister suspended. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts, with further easing on the cards. US inflation lifts but with positive signs tariffs are only having a transitory effect. New Zealand's economy may be showing signs of life in Q3. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton reviews the RBA's decision and latest set of economic forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut its cash rate 25 basis points later today. ANZ Research upgrades its forecasts for house prices and GDP growth in Australia. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell details why ANZ Research has upgraded those house price forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold hits a new record high after the US sets tariffs on imports of gold bars. All eyes this week are on an expected rate cut in Australia tomorrow, and US inflation data tomorrow night. In our Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton goes hunting for the neutral interest rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump announces a 100% tariff on chip imports, but markets are relaxed because there's lots of exemptions. The Bank of England cuts…but only just, and oil prices are falling as OPEC+ pumps out more crude. In part two of our Deep Dive interview with Soni Kumari about India's huge demand for metals, she lays out the opportunity for Australia's exporters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump has doubled India's tariff rate to 50% to punish it for buying oil from Russia. Markets are also wary of imminent Trump announcements on replacing key people at the Fed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Hong Kong's Monetary Authority intervenes again to stop the Hong Kong dollar falling off its peg to the US dollar. ANZ Research sees the Reserve Bank of India cutting today. And Australian consumer confidence hits a three-year high. In our deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman teases out the implications of significant job hoarding in recent years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks rally on growing hopes the Fed will cut next month. Donald Trump threatens even higher tariffs on India, blaming its buying of Russian oil. And Australian house prices are rising at an annualised rate of 7.4%. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou navigates the ins and outs of China's still unresolved trade negotiations with the US. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump hits Taiwan (20%), India (25%) and New Zealand (15%) with higher than expected tariff rates. US jobs figures were weaker than expected in July, and market bets the Fed will cut next month have strengthened. In our deep dive interview, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at the winners and losers from Friday's big tariff news. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation rises in June, driving down expectations for a Fed rate cut next month. Trump announces a string of trade deals and extensions, but not for India. And the Bank of Japan holds, but sees higher inflation. In our deep dive interview, ANZ's Dhiraj Nim looks at how the lack of a US trade deal for India, with a penalty tariff rate of 25%, will affect its economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed keeps US rates on hold, and lowers its tone on growth; Australia's inflation paves the way for an August rate cut; there are signs of weakness in New Zealand's economy; And Singapore leaves policy on hold. In our deep dive interview, ANZ's Matthew Galt looks at what's been driving local Council property tax rates up in New Zealand in recent years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are mixed this morning as attention turns to the Fed's rate decision tomorrow. Also, Australia's Q2 inflation data today will provide a big clue to whether the Reserve Bank of Australia can cut rates next month. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Aaron Luk has been researching insolvencies in Australia's accommodation and food services sector. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The euro fell sharply overnight as traders pored over Europe's trade deal with the United States and saw a 15% tariff slowing its economy. The yen fell too, along with the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. In our deep dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at how the Reserve Bank of India could deal with surplus liquidity in the banking system. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The United States and Europe agreed a trade deal overnight that will see a 15% tariff applied to imports from Europe. Markets are looking ahead to the Fed's decision on Thursday Asian time and US jobs on Friday night. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reports back from a trip he took to the United States this month. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US manufacturing and jobs figures are solid. Japan's factory activity contracts. South Korea's growth rebounds. And central bankers hit the speaking circuit Down Under. In our deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan analyses how sentiment around the world's major currencies has shifted through the year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US, European and Japanese stocks surged and risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi dollars rose as traders celebrated a US trade deal with Japan with lower tariffs than feared, and signs of a similar one for Europe. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses why a 50% tariff on US copper imports may not help rebuild its domestic copper industry. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/