5 in 5 with ANZ

Tech stocks are down on AI over-valuation fears, while oil fell as more ships exit the Strait of Hormuz. Australian CPI figures today will be watched for second round inflation from March's energy price pulse. Singaporean inflation is less than forecasts. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses just how long it will take for oil supplies from the Persian Gulf to return to something like normal. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces his plan to resign. The market reaction is benign, on hopes his expected replacement, new Labour MP Andy Burnham, will run a tight budget. And the US dollar is on a roll against the yen. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh, sees the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) responding again to inflation pressures by tightening policy next month. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil is in focus this morning after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. ANZ Research shifts its forecast for Fed rate cuts out to June 2027 from December. And Malaysian inflation is subdued. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes a wider look at a deal to end the Iran conflict, including why bond markets haven't moved much, despite the deal. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil falls and stocks rise again as a deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz is signed. The Bank of England holds. Central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines hike. And New Zealand's economy grows solidly in the March quarter. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses India's attempts to address a worsening balance of payments position and what they mean for the central bank. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed holds rates, but cuts look off the table as half of the rate-setters favour a hike this year. US Treasury yields rise and stocks are down. Meanwhile, New Zealand releases first quarter growth data today, with growth of about 1.0% expected. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk explains why ANZ Research has tuned down its Australian house price forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil falls below $80 a barrel on expectations the Strait of Hormuz will open soon. The RBA holds rates at 4.35%, but keeps a hawkish tone. And the Bank of Japan hikes rates to a 31-year-high of … 1%. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari explains why gold prices haven't traded as expected through the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks rally to new record highs and oil falls to almost $80 after the US and Iran confirm they'll sign a deal on Friday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold today, but the Bank of Japan is seen hiking. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks back and ahead at a swathe of central bank decisions, starting with the RBA today. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump says a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be signed later today, but Iran has yet to confirm it and new Israeli strikes in Lebanon have introduced more doubt. And India's inflation rate rises. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at how Asia equity portfolio outflows in May have continued into June. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices fall 3% and US stocks bounce after Donald Trump calls off fresh air strikes on Iran, and says Iran's leaders have approved an unspecified deal. And the European Central Bank hikes rates, as expected. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Agribusiness Mark Bennett analyses the outlook for Australia's beef and sheep sectors as winter sets in. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil rises as Middle East worries grow, so US stocks are down. US core inflation shows higher energy prices are not flowing through to the economy. And China's factory input prices jump on higher energy costs. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari highlights how nickel supply is being affected by tighter rules in Indonesia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil is down around 3%, although Middle East conflict and tech worries send stocks down. Australian price pressures fall in May. New Zealand manufacturing bounced in the March quarter. And Indonesia makes a surprise rate hike. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses the significance of the AI boom to recent GDP growth globally. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rebound overnight, but oil is slightly higher this morning after conflict between Iran and the US & Israel erupted again yesterday, although a cease fire is in place again now. And strong US jobs data shifts Federal Reserve rate expectations. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma examines the slump in Indonesia's rupiah to record lows in recent days. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

There's more conflicting news from the Middle East, with ongoing fighting in Lebanon, but hope for a deal drags oil prices down. The yen is perched on its precipice of 160 to the US dollar. And the Reserve Bank of India may hike today to support the rupee. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks what what is behind the Korean won falling to its lowest level since 2009. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australian GDP growth slows as real household incomes drop, supporting ANZ Research's view the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stay on hold. And New Zealand building consents remain strong despite a market downturn. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of Agribusiness Mark Bennett outlines how the Middle East conflict has affected key agricultural sector inputs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australian GDP growth is set to ease in the March quarter, which could take further pressure off the RBA and the currency. House prices fell in May, while building approvals fell in April. And Korea's inflation jumps. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at how the Philippines is dealing with its twin current account and budget deficits. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil rises as much as 7% after Iran breaks off talks and the two sides fire at each other. The US summer driving season is set to drive up oil prices from July. China's manufacturing and services sectors are expanding. And US factories are humming. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes a wider and longer look at the Australian economy's place in the world, including physically. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks hit new record highs and oil prices fall on hope for an Iran peace deal. US consumer spending is soft, but data centre investment is strong. And New Zealand's business and consumer confidence bounce. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers analyses the rise of Kangaroo bond issuance from offshore borrowers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation is cooler than expected. The New Zealand Government's borrowing position is set to improve following yesterday's budget. And in Australia, data centre investment jumps, while household spending starts to ease. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman dissects the New Zealand Government budget delivered yesterday, buoyed by a new set of Treasury forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand says hikes are coming sooner rather than later, sending the NZ dollar up. And Australia's headline inflation undershoots in April, sending the Aussie dollar down. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma says Asian local currency bond markets have been resilient through the Middle East conflict. But there are rising inflation risks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks and Brent oil are up this morning on see-sawing Middle East peace hopes. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to hold today, but for how long? And the Reserve Bank of Australia will be closely watching inflation data. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes has been tracking global oil inventories as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, to get a sense of just how much is left. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices fall 6.5% and bond yields drop on hopes a peace deal could re-open the Strait of Hormuz. The euro is weak as European factories slow down, and Singapore reports blockbuster GDP growth. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton assesses the potential impact of Federal Budget tax changes on Australia's property market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

There's fresh uncertainty about the Iran conflict, with Donald Trump first saying a deal was ‘largely negotiated,' but then that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remained and ‘there's no rush for a deal'. And ANZ Research changes its Fed call. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani analyses UK jobs, price and growth data to get a sense of what the Bank of England may have to do next. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks spike and oil prices fall in late trade on hopes for an Iran peace deal. Factory activity slumps in Britain & Europe, but is solid in the US, and Australia's jobs market softens, which may allow the RBA to hold rates. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses some key shifts in the gold market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil falls and and stocks rise on Middle East peace hopes. Australia's jobs data today will be closely watched by the RBA for weakness. And Bank Indonesia opts for a jumbo 50 basis point hike. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says the Yen may not weaken much further from here, as long-dated Government bond yields rise and BoJ hikes come closer. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes indicate a wait-and-see approach following this month's hike. Higher diesel prices squeeze New Zealand firm profit margins, and the Bank of Japan looks set to hike after stronger-than-expected Q1 growth. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how the global data centre boom is helping Asia's economies outside of China and India sail through the headwinds from the ‘liberation Day tariffs and Iran Conflict turmoil. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China's economic growth slows more than expected in April, but exports of gear for data centres from the likes of Singapore are going gangbusters. And that helped accelerate Thailand's GDP growth rate too. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees the sustainability of Government borrowing at the heart of the sharp selloff in global bond markets in recent days. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices are up again and global stocks start the week on the back foot after a selloff on global bond markets on Friday night, as investors worry about the longer term effects of the Iran conflict and political uncertainty on growth and inflation. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses the worsening of balance of payments deficits in the Philippines, India and Indonesia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks rally to yet more record highs, despite another rise in oil prices, with hopes high that Presidents Trump and Xi can solve their trade and Iran conflict issues. US retail sales soften after the energy price shock. and NZ house prices fall. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains the strategic intent behind India signing a Free Trade Agreement with New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump lands in China. Oil is down slightly and stocks are up. US producer price inflation is up as well. Australian home loans tumbled in March. And New Zealand inflation expectations rise. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers reviews the Australian Government bond issuance programme announced following Tuesday night's budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australia forecasts budget deficits for the next four years, but they're better than expected as savings allow for higher spending. Oil prices rise 3% and stocks fall as concerns grow over the US-Iran ceasefire. And US inflation rises in April. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the US labour market remains structurally weak, keeping wage growth and inflation pressures down. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices rise 3% after Donald Trump rejects Iran's latest offer to restart talks. Australia's Budget tonight will be watched for more cost of living relief for households. And inflation in China is higher than expected. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari examines just how exposed aluminium supply and prices are to the Middle East conflict, given 75% of production depends on imported alumina and bauxite. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but Iran has responded to a US offer to resume talks. US jobs figures were solid, leaving the Fed on hold as new Chair Kevin Warsh arrives. And China's exports surge in April. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks in depth at a big improvement in profit margins in China so far this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices fall on hopes for peace talks in the Middle East and stocks retreat from their record highs. Australia's imports jump in March as data centre equipment and oil values rise. And the Aussie dollar is trading at its highest level since 2022. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman explains why the International Monetary Fund may be taking notice of Yen intervention. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil falls and stocks rise on hopes the Middle East conflict is nearing an end. New Zealand's jobless rate falls, in a sweet-spot release for the RBNZ. And higher inflation could see the Bank of Korea hike rates. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt says New Zealand's property market started the year a bit stronger than expected, before the Middle East conflict hit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

The Reserve Bank of Australia hikes with hawkish tones, but ANZ Research says that should be it this cycle. And flat New Zealand jobs data today may not mark the end of rising unemployment. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses the RBA's latest forecasts and commentary for clues on whether there's going to be another hike. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices jump again as tension ratcheted up in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike later today, adding to pressure on Australian housing markets already cooling. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses a bounce in investment in China, thanks to a surge in data centre building and the electricity infrastructure to go with it. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Japanese authorities have intervened to halt the yen's slide. There's fresh talk of another peace proposal in the Iran conflict, but the Strait of Hormuz is still shut. South Korean exports rise 48%, and New Zealand consumers see record-high inflation. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the chances of further intervention to stop the dollar rising beyond 160 yen, including the chances of bilateral intervention by both Japanese authorities and the Fed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil hits US$126/barrel after reports the US is preparing new strikes on Iran. The European Central Bank holds, but talks about a rate hike soon. The Bank of England holds too. And China's factories withstand the Middle East conflict. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton compares the RBA's performance with other central banks as it seeks a narrow path between inflation and employment. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil jumps to US$118/barrel after Donald Trump suggests blockading the Strait of Hormuz for months. The US Fed holds rates as dissenters oppose an easing bias. And Australian core inflation is below forecasts, but the RBA is still set to hike next week. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk explains why the RBA is so focussed on inflation expectations, following March's price data. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices rise as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, while stocks fall on AI fears. The Bank of Japan holds, but hawkishly. And Australian Q1 inflation today is set to back another hike by the RBA. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani assesses the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in June. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices are up in the absence of face-to-face peace talks between the United States and Iran, and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The focus turns today to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), where a rate hold is expected. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at why the yen has regained its strength somewhat in recent weeks, and what might happen if there's a surprise hike by the BoJ later today. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed as the week begins, with peace talks stalled and naval blockades from Iran and the US in place. In Fed news, the way is clear now for Donald Trump's nominee to become chair. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks closer at the longer term effects on oil supply, and prices of shut-ins. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices rose again overnight after tit-for-tat seizures of vessels by the US and Iranian navies. South Korea's growth jumps in the first quarter on chip exports. And the Philippines hikes rates to beat down inflation. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen analyses how Papua New Guinea is responding to the oil price shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Donald Trump extends the Iran ceasefire and US earnings are strong, so stocks are up, but the strait of Hormuz remains blocked, so oil is up too. And Bank Indonesia holds, but says rates could rise to support its currency. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at how Singapore's economy was placed heading into the oil price shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil rises 4% and stocks drop as markets worry about the looming end of the ceasefire in Iran. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says he won't bow to political pressure. And New Zealand businesses look to raise prices as inflation stays above target. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to view above-target inflation heading into the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices bounced and US stocks slid overnight as the end of the Iran ceasefire looms tomorrow, and after the US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian ship yesterday. Also, New Zealand inflation and US retail sales figures are due today. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk outlines how ANZ Research has updated its forecast for Australian private credit growth over the next two years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices and the US dollar are expected to bounce in Asian trade this morning after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again and attacked two ships over the weekend. Markets are focused on peace talks due this week, and also global PMI data. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees the latest back and forth in the Iran conflict as edging towards resolution. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

US stocks are solid after a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced, but oil has risen as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. And Australia's jobs market doesn't tighten, which may help the Reserve Bank of Australia. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses China's economic prospects after a strong Q1. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices and stocks take a breather as the US and Iran consider a ceasefire extension. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be watching March job figures for signs of ongoing strength. India's trade falls due to the Middle East conflict. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala looks at how higher global energy prices will affect Australian imports and the federal budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices are down as much as 7%, while stocks are up on Middle East peace talk hopes. The Reserve Bank of Australia warns rates may not be high enough to tame inflation, and Singapore tightens monetary policy. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and outlines ANZ Research's new oil price forecast. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices are up around US$100/barrel again as the US Navy blockade on Iranian ports begins. ANZ Research changes its call for the Official Cash Rate in New Zealand, and Singapore's central bank is expected to tighten today. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner sees the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking early and hard from July, to avoid having to go higher later. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠