5 in 5 with ANZ

The Bank of England holds rates; Oil swings as President Trump gives himself two weeks to decide on the Middle East conflict. Australia's job market remains resilient. New Zealand's growth passes expectations. The Philippines cuts rates. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman explains how the US dollar is facing further downside risk this year as it loses some safe-haven status. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The FOMC holds US rates and indicates two more cuts this year. Bank Indonesia holds to protect its currency. Australia's job market is set to show ongoing strength. Japan exports fall amid tariff uncertainty. New Zealand's economy is set for Q1 growth. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses the Reserve Bank of India's recent monetary policy ‘clarification' after an oversized rate cut earlier this month. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil is up as concern grows over the Israel-Iran conflict. Stocks are down - also due to weak US economic data. The Bank of Japan holds amid tariff uncertainty. Australian consumers are expecting higher inflation as global tensions rise. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt explains why New Zealand's housing market is struggling to gain momentum even as interest rates drop. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices fall and stocks gain on news Iran is seeking de-escalation, despite strikes continuing. The Bank of Japan is set to hold rates today amid a hiking cycle. Extra May holidays boost Chinese retail sales and suppress production. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the Israel-Iran conflict and the ability of OPEC to respond to any disruption with increased supply. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil starts the week with more upward pressure, after jumping over 7% on Friday as Israel renewed attacks on Iran, and retaliation over the weekend. The developments will overshadow key central bank meetings this week, set to hold clues for further rate moves. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says while front-loading of Asian exports has supported trade numbers, the surge in activity is set to ease. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Soft US inflation data sees markets price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Gold rises and the US dollar falls as markets turn from trade talks. Subdued retail demand continues in New Zealand. India's inflation is weaker than expected in May. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt discusses what's been driving New Zealand's economy out of last year's recession ahead of Q1 GDP data next week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

President Trump says US-China trade talks result in agreements covering rare earths and magnets, and Chinese students. US inflation surprises to the downside in May, supporting rate cut expectations for later this year. Australian consumers look to spend. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty explains ANZ Research's call that the Philippines should pursue a fairer, or even under-valued exchange rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US and China trade talks continue this morning, with ‘more to do'. US inflation data for May will show if tariffs are pushing up prices. Australian business conditions are their lowest since 2020. Traffic movements in New Zealand show diverging economic activity. In the second part of a deep dive interview into OPEC's production cut phase-out, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why he will be keeping a close eye on what the oil bloc decides on production in September. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US and China resume trade talks, as Chinese export data shows a growing fall in US shipments. Chinese factory gate prices experience stronger deflation in May. New Zealand's manufacturing activity shows strength in the March quarter. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses how OPEC has been shifting in its strategy to phase out previous production cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The European Central Bank cuts but signals the cycle is near an end. US markets were buoyed by a trade call between Presidents Trump and Xi - all eyes are now on payrolls data to gauge the Fed's next move. Australian households remained cautious in April. New Zealand's construction sector may have found a floor. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou explains how ANZ Research developed a model to provide a more timely estimate of China's export performance. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Soft US services and job surveys support rate cut expectations for later in the year. Australia's headline growth falls in Q1, and South Korea's currency and stock market get a boost from an election ending months of uncertainty. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the economy is in better shape than yesterday's Q1 GDP indicated. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Strong US jobs data adds to the case for a Fed hold. Lower inflation in the EU supports an ECB rate cut this week. Australia's Q1 GDP growth is set to be weaker on falling public demand, and RBA minutes reveal how much a 50 basis point cut was discussed in May. In the second of two deep dive interviews into Australia's agriculture commodity outlook, ANZ Commercial's Head of Agri Business Mark Bennett highlights the challenges and opportunities for Australia's sheep, dairy and cropping farmers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Tariff uncertainty weighs on US manufacturing, with export and import activity at multi-year lows in May. Oil jumps over 3% on geopolitical risk; Australia's housing market bounces back in May, while job-ads fall. Asian economies start showing diverging trade activity. In in the first of two Deep Dive interviews into Australia's Agri commodity outlook, ANZ Commercial's Head of Agri Business Mark Bennett looks at how Australia's cattle farmers have been affected by different weather across the country. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets start the week on the lookout for certainty as US courts see-saw on tariff legality; Australia's housing market sends mixed signals, while retail spending was sluggish in April; and India produces surprisingly strong first quarter GDP. In our deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks ahead to a suite of trade data in Asia amid tariff uncertainty, and also Australia's Q1 growth figures, due on Wednesday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are mixed as they digest a US court ruling that the Trump administration's tariffs were imposed illegally. Australian business indicators were a mixed bag in Q1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor says a July cut is not a done deal. The Bank of Korea cuts, with more to come. In part two of a Deep Dive interview into Singapore's new safe-have status, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how the city-state avoids being labelled a currency manipulator by the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks track down with all eyes on Nvidia results due today. Treasury yields rise as traders eye more supply. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts as expected, and lowers its rate track - although one dissenter wanted a hold. And disinflation progress has stalled in Australia. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says the RBNZ's 5-to-1 vote yesterday indicates New Zealand's rate setting committee may be nearing a turning point. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets jump on stronger consumer confidence and intensified US-EU trade talks. Australian consumer confidence drops despite the RBA's rate cut last week. Australian annual inflation for April may tick up, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to ease policy later today. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh investigates the Singapore dollar's even safer-haven status as the US dollar wobbles. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump delays his 50% tariff on Europe, which boosts stocks there. But gold remains up near record highs on all the uncertainty. Singapore's factory output rebounds, reducing the chances of a technical recession. And the RBNZ is expected to cut the OCR again tomorrow In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes has taken a closer look at the aluminium market and finds supply issues are adding to the tension also building over rising trade barriers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Europe and a 25% tariff on Apple iPhones. Japanese bond yields surge to multi-decade highs. Oil production is set to rise. And New Zealand's retail trade beats expectations in the March quarter. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses Trump's latest moves and the selloff in long bonds globally, and the US in particular. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets bounce after Donald Trump's tax bill passed in the House, just. New Zealand's Government smooths its bond issuance out. Japanese business confidence falls. Singapore warns of a technical recession, and low Malaysian inflation could support a mid-year rate cut. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says the New Zealand Budget should only have a limited impact on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut thinking. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The selloff of US assets resumes as concerns about ballooning US Government debt pushed the 30-year Treasury yield over 5% to its highest level in 18 years. Indonesia cuts rates as currency worries fade. And New Zealand records a record trade surplus ahead of today's Budget. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses recent trends in India's trade flows as authorities there look to secure a trade deal with the US. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts 25 basis points, but considered a 50-point cut amid global uncertainty, sending the Aussie dollar down overnight. US stocks fall amid budget concerns. China cuts key lending rates, and Asian exports surge through April. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why he expects the Reserve Bank of Australia will next cut rates in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

International investors sell US assets after Moodys cut the US sovereign credit rating. The UK does a trade deal with the EU. The wealth effect from China's property market slump is still on consumption. The RBA is expected to cut 25 bps today, but be cautious about more. And Thailand's stronger-than-expected GDP flatters to deceive. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes stock of the latest tariff moves. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US consumer confidence slumps, but markets are firm, hopeful the Fed can cut, but that may be a while off. Asian markets will watch key economic data from China today, and ANZ Research has lifted its New Zealand inflation forecast a bit. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman takes a closer look at Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating on Friday, due to high and fast-growing US Government debt. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US retail sales are soft and US producer prices fall. The RBA is expected to look through Australia's jobs market surge in April, and New Zealand house prices appear to have turned a corner. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks into shifting patterns in Chinese Gold demand, and what that might do to the Gold price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets are mixed after Donald Trump's partial de-escalation of tariffs on China. Investors are looking ahead to US retail sales data tonight. Australian wage growth beats forecasts before jobs data today, while housing lending fell before the election. And New Zealand's migrant departures hit a new record high. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at the ability for ASEAN economies and India to use fiscal policy to respond to the economic effects of US tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and oil bounce on lower US inflation and another cut in tariffs on China, sending the Aussie and Kiwi dollars up around 1.5% overnight. Lower inflation in India sets a path for a June rate cut. And consumer confidence rises again in Australia. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses the US-China trade deal, and what to expect next. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks, the US dollar and oil prices surged overnight on hopes a US deal with China to both slash their tariffs for 90 days will stick, and revive growth prospects. Gold, safe haven currencies and bond prices fell. Markets will now focus on US inflation data tonight. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Sophia Angala analyses why China's domestic growth means more for Australia's exporters than China's exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US reports substantial progress in weekend trade talks with China. A ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. China re-routed a lot of exports to Asia and Europe in April. ANZ Research raises its milk price forecasts in New Zealand to a record high $10/kg. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani explains a divergence that has developed between the economies of South Korea and Taiwan, despite facing the same tariff shocks to their exports to the United States Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets rally after the US does a trade deal with the UK that keeps the 10% baseline tariff on most imports. The Bank of England cuts rates, but hawkishly. And exports from Taiwan and Vietnam jumped unexpectedly in April after US importers front-loaded shipments as soon as the 90-day US tariff pause started. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim looks at how the China-plus-one diversification strategy has affected regional Foreign Direct Investment flows in surprising ways. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed has held, as expected. China has lowered interest rates to cushion its domestic economy from the Liberation Day tariff shock. Those lower rates have unleashed extra funds going out of China and into Hong Kong, putting upward pressure on its currency peg with the US dolllar. And New Zealand jobs data was soft, despite a better than expected unemployment rate. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ's Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains how Australia's A$4 trillion pension savings system is improving Australia's current account deficit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks fall on a lack of trade deals ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision. The US trade deficit blows out on import stockpiling ahead of Trump's tariffs. The UK signs a trade deal with India, and China's consumers spend strongly over a holiday weekend. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ's Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains how Australia's A$4 trillion pension savings system is reducing the nation's previous reliance on foreign capital. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Taiwan dollar surges, forcing central bank intervention. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also intervenes to stop the Hong Kong dollar breaking its peg. Oil prices slide on extra production from OPEC. Indonesia is set to cut interest rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at whether a sharp selloff in India's stock market is justified. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices are set to fall again with Saudi Arabia expected to force through a deal to increase output later today. Australia's election result suggests incumbent Governments are safer than they used to be. ANZ Research trims its Australian GDP forecasts. And Indonesia's GDP growth is softening. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities strategist Daniel Hynes says metals markets should prepare for strategic reserves building of the type already seen in oil markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks jump on tech earnings, but a new US manufacturing survey points to rising chances of a US recession. The Bank of Japan holds dovishly, which drives the yen down. Australia's exports jump in March pre-tariffs, while Korea's exports fall in April. In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks at the prospects of lower business confidence feeding into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut projections. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US GDP falls for the first time since 2022. US stocks slide 0.5% and oil prices fall 3.4%. Lower core inflation in Australia lends support to the RBA cutting in May, New Zealand business confidence slumps on the tariff shock, and the Bank of Thailand cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses foreign direct investment flows in Asia, with some interesting findings on outward investment flows. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks firm, but oil prices slide after another slump in US consumer confidence drove growth views and Treasury yields lower. Australian consumer confidence falls, and Australia's inflation rate is forecast to be lower in March quarter data out today. In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses Vietnam's growth prospects as it scrambles to get a trade deal with the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and the US dollar are down again on nerves about tech earnings. China exempts some US imports from tariffs, but a wider deal is unlikely. And ANZ Research changes its Bank of Japan call to no hike this week, from a hike. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan reviews how South Korea's political turmoil put its economy on the back foot before the tariff shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Signs the sharp edges are coming off the global trade war have lifted US stocks and the US dollar, which means the Aussie and Kiwi dollars start lower this morning. South Korea's economy weakened before the tariffs, while consumer confidence rises in New Zealand. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says markets may be welcoming some positive tariff news, but there's still plenty of uncertainty. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and the US dollar rallied overnight on hopes Donald Trump will cut tariffs on China, and after he said he doesn't want to fire the Fed's chair. But business surveys in the United States and Europe show economic activity has already softened. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses goods trade data to explain why Trump may be easing his tariff rhetoric in recent days. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rally as the US Treasury Secretary says the US-China trade conflict is unsustainable and is likely to ‘de-escalate' soon. But surveys show weaker US economic activity in April due to tariff uncertainty. Also: gold backs off a new high. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as ANZ Research downgrades its Asia-ex China growth forecasts, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses how policymakers might respond to the tariff shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ‘Sell America' trade is back with a vengeance this morning after Donald Trump threatened the Fed's independence again. The ECB cuts rates, with further easing expected, and Australia's jobs market stays strong ahead of expected RBA rate cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses the risks inherent in Donald Trump's comments challenging the US Federal Reserve's independence. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks slump again after Donald Trump restricts Nvidia chip exports to China. Safe-haven buying blasts Gold to US$3,349/oz. ANZ Research cuts its growth forecasts for US and China, and lowers its cash rate view for New Zealand In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhao explains ANZ Research's downgrade to its China growth forecasts as tariff uncertainty takes hold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stock markets were stable overnight although the volatility may be short-lived. The Reserve Bank of Australia opens up for a May rate cut, while tariff uncertainty starts to show through in Australian consumer confidence. In the second part of a bonus Deep Dive interview on the US dollar's reserve currency status, ANZ's Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains why the Aussie dollar's relationship with the US dollar is so important for Australian pension funds. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets find some rare stability after Donald Trump's temporary pivot on computer and phone imports. China's exporters are stopping shipments anyway. Singapore eases monetary policy. New Zealand's economic recovery appears to stall. In the first part of a bonus Deep Dive interview with ANZ's Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers, he talks about the US dollar's reserve currency status — its exorbitant privilege. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The White House quietly exempted computers and phones from reciprocal import tariffs on Friday night after markets closed, but a Trump official has said the exemption is temporary. US consumer confidence slumps. Gold hits a record high. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explain why oil prices have fallen more than 15% in the last fortnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks are down as the White House points out total tariffs on China actually add up to 145%. Gold jumps to a record high.  China is set to cut interest rates in response to Trump's tariffs. And New Zealand's truck movements indicate a sluggish recovery. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses yesterday's pivot by Donald Trump to pause global tariff hikes, apart from China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, unleashing a furious rally in stocks, but increases his tariff on China to 125% after China retaliates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, as does the Reserve Bank of India. Meanwhile, the Yen is attracting safe-haven demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala reviews how Australian states and territories performed at the end of last year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks initially rose overnight on hopes for trade deals, but are off their highs in late US trade on confirmation China's exports will face a 104% tariff within the day. The RBNZ is set to cut today, but will it be 25 bps or 50? And confidence surveys in Australia and New Zealand show confidence rebounded, but that was before the tariff news. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says the market reaction to the US administration's latest tariff announcements could result in a Trump pivot. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are very volatile again this morning after Donald Trump threatened another 50% tariff on China. Hong Kong stocks fell 9.5%, their worst day since 1997. The Aussie dollar falls below 60 USc to a five-year low. The Kiwi is at a 16-year low. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at whether China will now push even harder to de-dollarise its foreign reserves. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks fall the most since March 2020 after Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariff shock. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars slump after China retaliates. And ANZ Research now sees the RBA cutting three times this year, rather than once. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses the economic effects on India of the 26% tariff rate put on its exports to the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/