5 in 5 with ANZ

Stocks spike and oil prices fall in late trade on hopes for an Iran peace deal. Factory activity slumps in Britain & Europe, but is solid in the US, and Australia's jobs market softens, which may allow the RBA to hold rates. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses some key shifts in the gold market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil falls and and stocks rise on Middle East peace hopes. Australia's jobs data today will be closely watched by the RBA for weakness. And Bank Indonesia opts for a jumbo 50 basis point hike. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says the Yen may not weaken much further from here, as long-dated Government bond yields rise and BoJ hikes come closer. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes indicate a wait-and-see approach following this month's hike. Higher diesel prices squeeze New Zealand firm profit margins, and the Bank of Japan looks set to hike after stronger-than-expected Q1 growth. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how the global data centre boom is helping Asia's economies outside of China and India sail through the headwinds from the ‘liberation Day tariffs and Iran Conflict turmoil. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China's economic growth slows more than expected in April, but exports of gear for data centres from the likes of Singapore are going gangbusters. And that helped accelerate Thailand's GDP growth rate too. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees the sustainability of Government borrowing at the heart of the sharp selloff in global bond markets in recent days. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices are up again and global stocks start the week on the back foot after a selloff on global bond markets on Friday night, as investors worry about the longer term effects of the Iran conflict and political uncertainty on growth and inflation. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses the worsening of balance of payments deficits in the Philippines, India and Indonesia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stocks rally to yet more record highs, despite another rise in oil prices, with hopes high that Presidents Trump and Xi can solve their trade and Iran conflict issues. US retail sales soften after the energy price shock. and NZ house prices fall. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains the strategic intent behind India signing a Free Trade Agreement with New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump lands in China. Oil is down slightly and stocks are up. US producer price inflation is up as well. Australian home loans tumbled in March. And New Zealand inflation expectations rise. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers reviews the Australian Government bond issuance programme announced following Tuesday night's budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Australia forecasts budget deficits for the next four years, but they're better than expected as savings allow for higher spending. Oil prices rise 3% and stocks fall as concerns grow over the US-Iran ceasefire. And US inflation rises in April. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin says the US labour market remains structurally weak, keeping wage growth and inflation pressures down. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices rise 3% after Donald Trump rejects Iran's latest offer to restart talks. Australia's Budget tonight will be watched for more cost of living relief for households. And inflation in China is higher than expected. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari examines just how exposed aluminium supply and prices are to the Middle East conflict, given 75% of production depends on imported alumina and bauxite. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but Iran has responded to a US offer to resume talks. US jobs figures were solid, leaving the Fed on hold as new Chair Kevin Warsh arrives. And China's exports surge in April. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks in depth at a big improvement in profit margins in China so far this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices fall on hopes for peace talks in the Middle East and stocks retreat from their record highs. Australia's imports jump in March as data centre equipment and oil values rise. And the Aussie dollar is trading at its highest level since 2022. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman explains why the International Monetary Fund may be taking notice of Yen intervention. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil falls and stocks rise on hopes the Middle East conflict is nearing an end. New Zealand's jobless rate falls, in a sweet-spot release for the RBNZ. And higher inflation could see the Bank of Korea hike rates. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt says New Zealand's property market started the year a bit stronger than expected, before the Middle East conflict hit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

The Reserve Bank of Australia hikes with hawkish tones, but ANZ Research says that should be it this cycle. And flat New Zealand jobs data today may not mark the end of rising unemployment. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses the RBA's latest forecasts and commentary for clues on whether there's going to be another hike. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices jump again as tension ratcheted up in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike later today, adding to pressure on Australian housing markets already cooling. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses a bounce in investment in China, thanks to a surge in data centre building and the electricity infrastructure to go with it. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Japanese authorities have intervened to halt the yen's slide. There's fresh talk of another peace proposal in the Iran conflict, but the Strait of Hormuz is still shut. South Korean exports rise 48%, and New Zealand consumers see record-high inflation. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the chances of further intervention to stop the dollar rising beyond 160 yen, including the chances of bilateral intervention by both Japanese authorities and the Fed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil hits US$126/barrel after reports the US is preparing new strikes on Iran. The European Central Bank holds, but talks about a rate hike soon. The Bank of England holds too. And China's factories withstand the Middle East conflict. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton compares the RBA's performance with other central banks as it seeks a narrow path between inflation and employment. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil jumps to US$118/barrel after Donald Trump suggests blockading the Strait of Hormuz for months. The US Fed holds rates as dissenters oppose an easing bias. And Australian core inflation is below forecasts, but the RBA is still set to hike next week. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk explains why the RBA is so focussed on inflation expectations, following March's price data. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices rise as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, while stocks fall on AI fears. The Bank of Japan holds, but hawkishly. And Australian Q1 inflation today is set to back another hike by the RBA. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani assesses the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike in June. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices are up in the absence of face-to-face peace talks between the United States and Iran, and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The focus turns today to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), where a rate hold is expected. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at why the yen has regained its strength somewhat in recent weeks, and what might happen if there's a surprise hike by the BoJ later today. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed as the week begins, with peace talks stalled and naval blockades from Iran and the US in place. In Fed news, the way is clear now for Donald Trump's nominee to become chair. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks closer at the longer term effects on oil supply, and prices of shut-ins. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices rose again overnight after tit-for-tat seizures of vessels by the US and Iranian navies. South Korea's growth jumps in the first quarter on chip exports. And the Philippines hikes rates to beat down inflation. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen analyses how Papua New Guinea is responding to the oil price shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Donald Trump extends the Iran ceasefire and US earnings are strong, so stocks are up, but the strait of Hormuz remains blocked, so oil is up too. And Bank Indonesia holds, but says rates could rise to support its currency. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at how Singapore's economy was placed heading into the oil price shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil rises 4% and stocks drop as markets worry about the looming end of the ceasefire in Iran. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says he won't bow to political pressure. And New Zealand businesses look to raise prices as inflation stays above target. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to view above-target inflation heading into the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices bounced and US stocks slid overnight as the end of the Iran ceasefire looms tomorrow, and after the US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian ship yesterday. Also, New Zealand inflation and US retail sales figures are due today. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk outlines how ANZ Research has updated its forecast for Australian private credit growth over the next two years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices and the US dollar are expected to bounce in Asian trade this morning after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again and attacked two ships over the weekend. Markets are focused on peace talks due this week, and also global PMI data. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees the latest back and forth in the Iran conflict as edging towards resolution. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

US stocks are solid after a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced, but oil has risen as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. And Australia's jobs market doesn't tighten, which may help the Reserve Bank of Australia. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses China's economic prospects after a strong Q1. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices and stocks take a breather as the US and Iran consider a ceasefire extension. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be watching March job figures for signs of ongoing strength. India's trade falls due to the Middle East conflict. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala looks at how higher global energy prices will affect Australian imports and the federal budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices are down as much as 7%, while stocks are up on Middle East peace talk hopes. The Reserve Bank of Australia warns rates may not be high enough to tame inflation, and Singapore tightens monetary policy. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and outlines ANZ Research's new oil price forecast. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices are up around US$100/barrel again as the US Navy blockade on Iranian ports begins. ANZ Research changes its call for the Official Cash Rate in New Zealand, and Singapore's central bank is expected to tighten today. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner sees the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking early and hard from July, to avoid having to go higher later. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Peace talks between Iran and the United States collapse. Donald Trump says the US Navy will blockade the Strait of Hormuz and stop tankers on the high seas that have paid Iran tolls. And US inflation spikes, which pushes consumer confidence down. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Economist Richard Yetsenga assesses how much damage has been done so far to global economic momentum. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices fall and stocks rise after Israel agrees to ceasefire talks with Lebanon, improving the chances of a broader Middle East ceasefire. Elsewhere, Kiwis drove less in March and China's deflation may be over. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk details where and how ANZ Research has lowered its house price forecasts in Australia's capital cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil prices plunged 15% and stocks rose 3% overnight after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. But there is still conflict in the region and only a few ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates, but lifted its inflation forecasts. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says the oil market is not going to return to its pre-conflict state any time soon, even if the ceasefire holds. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Markets are on tenterhooks hours ahead of President Trump's 8pm EST deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Australia's labour market loosens; The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold rates today. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at how South Korea's economy is standing up to the effects of the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Trump threatens strikes on Iran's energy and water infrastructure tomorrow, which is pushing up oil prices and undermining US stocks. US jobs are strong, but wage growth weakens in March - taking pressure off the Fed. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk analyses the most recent housing market data in Australia, and says there are signs of a slowdown. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Global stocks are firmer this morning and oil prices slipped on hopes for de-escalation in Iran, but the focus is on a Donald Trump speech due at 1pm Sydney/Melbourne time. And manufacturing in Asia remains strong. For now. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses how the Middle East conflict is affecting the global aluminium market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Stocks jump on hopes for de-escalation in Iran. RBA minutes show four dissenters weren't against hiking, just the timing; And New Zealand business confidence slumps in March as fuel prices jumped. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the further impact on oil and the world economy if Red Sea trade becomes disrupted by the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Markets wobbled overnight with conflicting accounts of when the Iran conflict might end. Bond yields fell on hope inflation may not rise too much. And we get data today on Australian lending growth and NZ business confidence. And then in our deep-dive interview,ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur, analyses the fiscal effects of the fuel subsidies, and how long before they may have to be abandoned. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

The conflict in Iran widens again over the weekend after global stocks and bonds sell off aggressively. Brent crude jumps again, and the US dollar strengthens. And consumer confidence falls in both the United States and New Zealand. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell looks at why the Fed is likely to look through the latest energy price shock, even though it was criticized for doing the same thing in 2022, when inflation failed to recede quickly. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil rises 5% on uncertainty about a US peace deal with Iran. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is concerned about higher inflation expectations becoming embedded, and ANZ Research has lowered its Australian GDP forecasts. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari analyses how gold has fallen since the Middle East conflict escalated as US rate cut expectations disappeared. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil eases and stocks rise on Middle East ceasefire hopes, even as Iran rejects a US peace plan. And Australia's annual inflation fell slightly in February, as household spending eased off. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Agri Economist Matt Dilly explains how the oil price shock is affecting global fertiliser prices and on-farm costs in New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil is back up 5% as caution returns to the outlook for the Middle East conflict. The RBNZ signals no knee-jerk moves but is watching inflation expectations. And Australian inflation expectations jump to a record high as confidence plunges. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma looks at the tail end risks for Asian economies from a prolonged supply shock due to the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

US President Donald Trump has postponed his threatened strikes on Iranian power and desalination plants. Markets rally on hopes for de-escalation. And New Zealand's new Reserve Bank Governor, Anna Breman, speaks today. And then in part two of a deep-dive interview with ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes, he details why any resumption of oil production won't be easy, or quick. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

US President Donald Trump threatens to destroy Iran's power and water plants. In response, Iran threatens to strike US infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. Markets are set to react badly. Also, ANZ Research changes its call for the next Fed cut. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes explains how the latest strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf will change global energy markets, structurally. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/⁠

Oil hits US$119 a barrel after Iran hits Qatar's big LNG plant hard. Gas prices rise 35%. The Fed, Bank of Japan and the ECB all hold rates to take stock of the Middle East conflict. Australia's jobless rate rises. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Matthew Galt analyses how New Zealand's economy hung onto growth in Q4. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil climbs and stocks fall as Persian Gulf facilities are hit. Australia's jobs market likely remained tight in February. Attention now turns to the Bank of Japan and ECB after the Fed's rate decision as this podcast goes to air. And then our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses how exposed Asia's economies are to oil and LNG from the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The RBA hikes rates again in a close 5-to-4 vote. Another is on the cards for May. West Texas Oil futures rose about 2% overnight; And all eyes are now on how the Fed reacts to the Middle East conflict tomorrow. And then our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of Geopolitical Risk, Cameron Mitchell analyses the chances of a longer and wider conflict in the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A few oil tankers have started moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but only from India, China & Turkey. So oil prices softened. And all eyes in Australia are on the Reserve Bank of Australia's expected rate hike later today. And then our deep-dive interview, ANZ New Zealand's Chief Economist Sharon Zollner takes a closer look at how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might, or might not, react to the energy price shock coming out of the Middle East conflict. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Strait of Hormuz remains shut to oil tankers as the Middle East conflict escalates. The US strikes Kharg Island & Iran attacks oil facilities in the UAE. Oil is expected to rise over US$100 a barrel in Asian trade later today. And then our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses the risk now facing central banks and consumers as the Strait remains closed at the start of a third week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The price of Brent crude rises back over US$100/barrel as Iran's new leader vows to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. US stocks fall. And ANZ Research upgrades its RBA call to hikes in both March and May. And then our deep-dive interview ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses how well-placed India's key economic players are to withstand a prolonged oil price shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The International Energy Agency releases a record 400 million barrels, but oil is back up 5% as the Middle East conflict deepens. US core inflation falls in February. The Australian dollar has strengthened in recent days after hawkish RBA comments. And then in part 2 of a deep-dive interview on the outlook for Australia's agri sectors, ANZ's Head of Agribusiness Mark Bennett analyses the prospects for dairy and wool. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The oil price slumps back towards US$80, and stocks rise, as traders bet on stockpiles being released. Australian consumers expect higher inflation due to the conflict. China's chip exports and oil imports surge. And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of Agribusiness Mark Bennett reviews the headwinds and tailwinds for Australia's agriculture sectors as we head into Autumn. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/