5 in 5 with ANZ

Chances rise that the RBA may hike in May after inflation stays high in January. The Aussie dollar rose. The US indicates it will respect existing trade agreements. And the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cuts rates.And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Agri Economist Matt Dilly reviews how New Zealand's all-important primary industries have weathered the start of 2026.Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rebound after yesterday's AI slump, and despite Fed officials indicating no March rate cut; The RBA digs into why inflation jumped at the end of 2025; And China leaves key rates unchanged.And then in our deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala reviews how Australian consumers have been tracking so far in 2026.Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ⁠⁠https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US software stocks dive on new AI fears. Tariff uncertainty isn't helping. Australian headline CPI likely fell a bit in January, but core inflation is still humming. And New Zealand's retail sales rose in the December quarter. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes talks about why oil markets are on tenterhooks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US Supreme Court rules Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, but he won't give up on them. US GDP is weaker than expected, but inflation for consumers is warmer than forecast. And Malaysian exports surge. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses the impact of the Supreme Court's tariff block, including on the US Government deficit and its borrowing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices jump on reports the US could strike Iran within days. ANZ Research sees three Fed rate cuts this year, rather than two, but starting in June, rather than March. Australia's jobless rate was flat in February, which the RBA may consider is still tight. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman has released his latest outlook for the New Zealand economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds and forecasts a rate hike this year, just not as early as markets expected. The Kiwi dollar falls over 1%. Australian wages continue growing strongly. And the Bank of England is set to cut rates from March. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga examines Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's view that an AI productivity surge will allow for faster growth with lower rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The RBA's rate hike meeting minutes indicate another move higher is not a foregone conclusion. And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold rates today, but all eyes are on its future rate track. In the final part of our deep-dive interview on the Year of the Fire Horse, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung talks about the outlook for interest rates, the Yuan and the property market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Japanese GDP is weak, but Thailand's economic growth beat forecasts. New Zealand's housing market is soft. And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to hold its official cash rate tomorrow. In part two of our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, talks about China's exports, jobs, and the AI boom. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation is slightly weaker than expected. The Aussie dollar is riding higher after the RBA's rate hike. Nickel prices are stabilising after Indonesia confirmed supply cuts. And Malaysia's GDP growth beats forecasts. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung starts unpacking his 10 themes for the year of the fire horse. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold, silver and global stocks are down ahead of key US inflation data tonight, with investors switching into bonds, so yields fell overnight. UK GDP barely grew in the last nine months of 2025, which is expected to lead to BoE rate cuts. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes examines headwinds in the global iron ore market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth is higher than expected in January, pushing market expectations towards a July cut by the Fed. ANZ Research lowers its Australian growth forecast after last week's RBA hike, slightly. And Australian first home buyers jumped into the market in the December quarter. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Senior Pacific Economist Kishti Sen analyses Papua New Guinea's economic performance as international capital looks to invest in large infrastructure projects. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US retail sales stall, suggesting a Fed rate cut is needed. Australian consumers take a hit after the RBA hikes rates, as businesses report easing price pressures. And New Zealand's economic momentum builds. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin analyses why the US jobs market remains weak even as the economy grows. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold and silver rise and the US dollar falls again, with yen traders on high alert for intervention. Australian household spending falls in December, surprisingly. And stock investors welcome election results in Japan and Thailand. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses Singapore's resilience despite a year of global trade dramas. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Japan's ruling party wins big in a snap election, clearing the way for tax cuts that may drive up bond yields and drag on the yen. ANZ Research sees Australian house price inflation slowing. And silver faces supply pressure. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Strategy Mahjabeen Zaman, looks at the US debasement trade and where traders see safe havens these days. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Commodities and bitcoin slide as US job losses rise to a 17-year high. The European Central Bank holds rates, as does the Bank of of England, but only just. Gold exports prop up Australian exports to the US, and a rate cut is on the cards in Thailand. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin analyses how Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh could shape the future of US interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US hiring is weak in January, raising questions of whether a Fed rate cut in March could be on the cards; New Zealand's unemployment rate rises, but there are positive signals; and the ECB and Bank of England are both expected to hold rates today amid cutting cycles. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses the implications for India's economy from the deal to reduce US tariffs earlier this week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia hikes the cash rate and its inflation forecasts, so the Australian dollar rises in response. New Zealand jobs data today is being watched closely by the RBNZ. Gold and silver prices surge again. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says Australia's housing market was starting to soften ahead of the RBA hiking rates, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil falls 5% as tensions ease in the Middle East, and gold falls again, although by much less than in previous days. Silver bounces. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike today. And Australian job ads grow the most in four years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed Chair, reassuring some who feared a less conventional chair would devalue the US dollar. The world's reserve currency bounced 0.7%, while gold slumped 11% and silver fell 31%. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers looks into the remarkable stability of US bond markets, which haven't received the ‘Sell America' memo. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed holds with a mildly hawkish tone, but is still expected to cut again. Copper jumps 11% to a record-high. Singapore holds policy but a tightening is coming; Australia's inflation rise looks to be temporary, and Indonesia's stock market plunges. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Strategist David Croy looks at what's behind the Kiwi dollar's strong start to 2026. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar slides and then rebounds after conflicting comments from Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. ANZ Research now sees the RBA hiking next Tuesday, and ANZ lowers its house price inflation forecast in New Zealand In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explores the lessons of Brexit for the United States as it reorders its trade relations with the world. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar falls again ahead of a likely Fed pause, with the Aussie up to near 70 USc, and the Kiwi over 60 USc. China's firms are profitable for the first time in four years. The Reserve Bank of Australia will focus today on December quarter CPI data. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh previews the Monetary Authority of Singapore's decision due on Friday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold blasts through US$5,100 an ounce. Silver vaults over US$100 an ounce. The USD keeps dropping, as investors look for safe havens elsewhere, including in the Aussie dollar, which surged to a three-year high overnight of 69.40 USc. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says the Fed's cutting track means it's diverging from other central banks that are likely to hike next, including Australia and New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rise after Donald Trump de-escalates tensions over Greenland, but the US dollar falls again, driving the Aussie and Kiwi dollars to 3-month highs. Australian unemployment unexpectedly drops, bolstering views the next RBA move is a hike. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Head of Geopolitical Risk Cameron Mitchell says a useful way to analyse an extraordinary few weeks in global politics is to identify the contests to focus on, and then the corridors that transmit their risks into the global economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets stabilise as US President Donald Trump says the US won't take Greenland by force. Gold rises again though. Bank Indonesia holds to support its currency. And Australian jobs data today will give clues on the Reserve Bank of Australia's next move. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Chief economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur explains what India's tight bank liquidity could mean for growth and corporate earnings there. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US assets fell sharply overnight and gold surged on a renewed ‘sell America' trade. Japanese bond yields jump. Australian consumer confidence drops as rate hikes are forecast. New Zealand's services sector finally expands again. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, says China's early and deep adoption of industrial robots and AI drove GDP up 5%, but without many new jobs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The latest tariff dramas drive European stocks and the US dollar down, but gold hits a new high. Japan looks set to cut its sales tax on food, which bond markets aren't keen on. And China achieves its 5% GDP growth target for 2025. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari says silver's price has been more volatile than gold, partly because 70% is mined as a by-product of gold, copper and zinc. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Silver prices fall sharply as tensions ease around Iran. China's GDP figures today are expected to show a two-speed economy. Malaysia reports strong economic growth, and there's more signs of economic heat in New Zealand. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari says central banks are now buying 20% of all gold, double the demand seen in 2022. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil prices slide nearly 5% as tensions ease in the Middle East. US job losses are less than expected. The Bank of Korea ends its rate cutting cycle and the European Central Bank faces an inflation undershoot. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Head of Asia Research, Khoon Goh, explains why China's currency is likely to keep appreciating. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Warnings of intervention force the yen back up from an 18-month low as markets brace for a snap election in Japan. US retail sales are solid, but K-shaped. And China's exports are very strong overall, despite US tariffs. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman takes a closer look at what a snap election in Japan means for the yen, the Bank of Japan and Japanese Government Bond (JGBs) yields. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

More support for Fed independence from all the living Fed chairs and 11 other central bankers reassure markets. The yen slides on talk of a snap election in Japan. Australian house prices soften. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why concerns about Iran are hitting oil markets more than Venezuela. Oil prices rose 3.4% overnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made an unprecedented statement, accusing Donald Trump of trying to intimidate the Fed into cutting rates. Gold surges to new highs, but stocks and bonds hold their nerve. For now. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research's Khoon Goh explains why the AI boom is so important for Asia's economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Geopolitical turmoil features in our first podcast of 2026, although markets are relatively relaxed. We also look ahead to big decisions at the Fed and the US Supreme Court, and look back to China inflation data and a record low for the Philippines Peso. In our Deep-Dive interview, I talked with ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga about why financial markets are sanguine so far about the geopolitical turmoil over the last fortnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs data is weaker than expected in November. Australian consumer confidence ends the year lower than it started. And New Zealand's Government adds another year of deficits to its forecasts. In our Deep-Dive interview, ahead of the Australian Government's Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook today ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains what to look out for in the new fiscal and bond programme forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed signals it's on hold for the next month at least. China's economy slows markedly. And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's new Governor unexpectedly tells markets not to bet so hard on rate hikes soon. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes has analysed the potential effects on the global oil market of a possible peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, no deal with the status quo, or no deal with much tougher sanctions. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed is divided about more rate cuts going into a new year with a new Chair. India's underlying inflation decelerates. And New Zealand's manufacturing sector expands slightly faster. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Greater China Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses the results of last week's Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) statement after a key Politburo meeting. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets relax after the Fed cut rates, seeing two more cuts next year. Australia's unemployment rate holds, but a drop in jobs suggests softness. And New Zealand growth expectations get a boost. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman previews some of the more interesting drivers of FX markets in 2026. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The S&P 500 was flat ahead of the Fed's expected cut this morning, which was being announced as the podcast was going to air. Australia is set to have seen jobs growth in November, and Chinese inflation rises. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari looks at what's behind a recent spike in the silver price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US job openings rise, supporting stocks ahead of the Fed's rate decision tomorrow. And the Reserve Bank of Australia holds a little less hawkishly than expected, but rate cuts appear to be off the table from here. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at the outlook for prices and policy responses in China over 2026. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.6% later this afternoon. The Aussie dollar has rallied in anticipation of a rate hike next year. And China's trade surplus hits US$1 trillion. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the immediate outlook for the US dollar ahead of the Fed's expected cut this week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Benign US inflation data sets the scene for a Fed rate cut this week. China's exports are growing solidly. Japanese consumers spend less, but the Bank of Japan is still expected to hike. And the Reserve Bank of India cuts rates, as expected. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains why the Fed is still cutting, while the next moves by Reserve Banks in Australia and New Zealand (RBA, RBNZ) are expected to be hikes. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are solid ahead of key US inflation data tonight. Australian households spent up during October sales. Australia's gold exports continue to climb. And there are positive signs for New Zealand's Q3 growth. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at what's in store for the Yuan and Rupee next year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets are mixed after weak jobs data. Australian GDP shows stronger inflation signals for the RBA. South Korean growth rises. And India's central bank looks unlikely to aggressively defend a falling rupee. In the first of two Deep-Dive interviews into the outlook for Asian currencies in 2026, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses the general trends and domestic drivers to watch out for. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rise, but wariness remains around tech valuations. ANZ Research updates its RBA call, with rates are expected to stay at 3.6%, and Australian Q3 GDP out today is set to be buoyed by public sector demand. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is at the end of its rate cut cycle, and what's needed before the next move. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US manufacturing data is weaker than expected, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. That's dragging on the US dollar. But the Kiwi dollar is doing well on fresh talk rates could rise next year. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Matt Galt sees house prices rising by a relatively slow 5% next year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Lending to rental property investors in Australia surges to its fastest growth rate in a decade. China's economy is showing mixed signals. And India posts a very fast GDP growth number. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Maddy Dunk analyses the surge in lending to rental property investors in October. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are quiet with the US on Thanksgiving holiday. Data centres underpin an Australian investment jump, putting further pressure on RBA to hold rates. And The Bank of Korea holds rates. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's New Zealand Business Outlook hit its highest point in a decade - something ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner says shows the economy has turned. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars rise as rate cut views retreat. Australian October inflation overshot the mark, putting another Reserve Bank of Australia cut in doubt. And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts but strongly hints the cycle is over. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak explains why ANZ Research has downgraded its near term forecast for the Philippines Peso (PHP). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs, consumption and producer inflation data overnight support a Fed rate cut in December. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to cut rates today. And Australia's October inflation is expected to stay above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at what Singapore's improving growth outlook could mean for the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rally on growing expectations, again, that the Fed will cut rates next month. There's another weak business sentiment survey out of the US, and the Reserve Bank of India intervenes to stop the rupee falling. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand's Chief Economist Sharon Zollner previews tomorrow's rates decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Japan has launched a stimulus package that could add almost half a percent to GDP growth. But bond investors aren't keen on the extra borrowing to pay for it, driving up Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields to record highs. In our Deep-Dive interview, ANZ's Head of FX Research, Mahjabeen Zaman, takes a closer look at where demand is coming from for stablecoins. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/