5 in 5 with ANZ

US stocks jump on tech earnings, but a new US manufacturing survey points to rising chances of a US recession. The Bank of Japan holds dovishly, which drives the yen down. Australia's exports jump in March pre-tariffs, while Korea's exports fall in April. In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks at the prospects of lower business confidence feeding into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate cut projections. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US GDP falls for the first time since 2022. US stocks slide 0.5% and oil prices fall 3.4%. Lower core inflation in Australia lends support to the RBA cutting in May, New Zealand business confidence slumps on the tariff shock, and the Bank of Thailand cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim analyses foreign direct investment flows in Asia, with some interesting findings on outward investment flows. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks firm, but oil prices slide after another slump in US consumer confidence drove growth views and Treasury yields lower. Australian consumer confidence falls, and Australia's inflation rate is forecast to be lower in March quarter data out today. In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses Vietnam's growth prospects as it scrambles to get a trade deal with the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and the US dollar are down again on nerves about tech earnings. China exempts some US imports from tariffs, but a wider deal is unlikely. And ANZ Research changes its Bank of Japan call to no hike this week, from a hike. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan reviews how South Korea's political turmoil put its economy on the back foot before the tariff shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Signs the sharp edges are coming off the global trade war have lifted US stocks and the US dollar, which means the Aussie and Kiwi dollars start lower this morning. South Korea's economy weakened before the tariffs, while consumer confidence rises in New Zealand. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says markets may be welcoming some positive tariff news, but there's still plenty of uncertainty. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and the US dollar rallied overnight on hopes Donald Trump will cut tariffs on China, and after he said he doesn't want to fire the Fed's chair. But business surveys in the United States and Europe show economic activity has already softened. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses goods trade data to explain why Trump may be easing his tariff rhetoric in recent days. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rally as the US Treasury Secretary says the US-China trade conflict is unsustainable and is likely to ‘de-escalate' soon. But surveys show weaker US economic activity in April due to tariff uncertainty. Also: gold backs off a new high. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as ANZ Research downgrades its Asia-ex China growth forecasts, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses how policymakers might respond to the tariff shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ‘Sell America' trade is back with a vengeance this morning after Donald Trump threatened the Fed's independence again. The ECB cuts rates, with further easing expected, and Australia's jobs market stays strong ahead of expected RBA rate cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses the risks inherent in Donald Trump's comments challenging the US Federal Reserve's independence. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks slump again after Donald Trump restricts Nvidia chip exports to China. Safe-haven buying blasts Gold to US$3,349/oz. ANZ Research cuts its growth forecasts for US and China, and lowers its cash rate view for New Zealand In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhao explains ANZ Research's downgrade to its China growth forecasts as tariff uncertainty takes hold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stock markets were stable overnight although the volatility may be short-lived. The Reserve Bank of Australia opens up for a May rate cut, while tariff uncertainty starts to show through in Australian consumer confidence. In the second part of a bonus Deep Dive interview on the US dollar's reserve currency status, ANZ's Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains why the Aussie dollar's relationship with the US dollar is so important for Australian pension funds. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets find some rare stability after Donald Trump's temporary pivot on computer and phone imports. China's exporters are stopping shipments anyway. Singapore eases monetary policy. New Zealand's economic recovery appears to stall. In the first part of a bonus Deep Dive interview with ANZ's Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers, he talks about the US dollar's reserve currency status — its exorbitant privilege. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The White House quietly exempted computers and phones from reciprocal import tariffs on Friday night after markets closed, but a Trump official has said the exemption is temporary. US consumer confidence slumps. Gold hits a record high. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explain why oil prices have fallen more than 15% in the last fortnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks are down as the White House points out total tariffs on China actually add up to 145%. Gold jumps to a record high.  China is set to cut interest rates in response to Trump's tariffs. And New Zealand's truck movements indicate a sluggish recovery. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses yesterday's pivot by Donald Trump to pause global tariff hikes, apart from China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, unleashing a furious rally in stocks, but increases his tariff on China to 125% after China retaliates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, as does the Reserve Bank of India. Meanwhile, the Yen is attracting safe-haven demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala reviews how Australian states and territories performed at the end of last year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks initially rose overnight on hopes for trade deals, but are off their highs in late US trade on confirmation China's exports will face a 104% tariff within the day. The RBNZ is set to cut today, but will it be 25 bps or 50? And confidence surveys in Australia and New Zealand show confidence rebounded, but that was before the tariff news. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says the market reaction to the US administration's latest tariff announcements could result in a Trump pivot. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are very volatile again this morning after Donald Trump threatened another 50% tariff on China. Hong Kong stocks fell 9.5%, their worst day since 1997. The Aussie dollar falls below 60 USc to a five-year low. The Kiwi is at a 16-year low. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at whether China will now push even harder to de-dollarise its foreign reserves. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks fall the most since March 2020 after Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariff shock. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars slump after China retaliates. And ANZ Research now sees the RBA cutting three times this year, rather than once. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses the economic effects on India of the 26% tariff rate put on its exports to the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks, bond yields and the US dollar are down sharply after Donald Trump unveiled much higher than expected tariffs. Investors fear a US recession and higher inflation. Australia though may fare better, with gold exempted, and beef prices high. In our bonus deep dive interview, I spoke with ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny late last night about what would be an unprecedented rise in US tariffs to higher than levels seen after the Smoot Hawley Act of 1930. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets rose overnight, but are in a holding pattern ahead of Donald Trump's big tariff announcements due at 7am Sydney/Melbourne time. Australia's housing market picks up, while New Zealand building approvals stay sluggish, and inflation unexpectedly rises in South Korea in the middle of a rate cut cycle. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan outlines ANZ Research's work developing a new method to detect Foreign Exchange trading signals. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets are defensive ahead of ‘Liberation Day' tariff news, just as weak US manufacturing and jobs data raises slowdown fears. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates, but hawkishly. Australian consumer confidence rises and retail sales keep recovering. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why Asian economies may be particularly nervous about the upcoming US tariff announcements, and how they might react. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and more risk-sensitive currencies weakened ahead of President Trump's ‘Liberation Day' of tariff announcements. Gold jumps to US$3,160/oz. China's factories brace for tariffs too. Australia's bank lending growth is steady. In our bonus deep dive interview, Greater China Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses the prospects for a second Plaza Accord-style deal on semiconductors between Taiwan and the United States, similar to a US-Japan deal in 1986. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US investors start the week nervously ahead of tariff news they've yet to fully price in. Gold hits a new high. Japanese inflation is rising, which is seen leading to another Bank of Japan rate hike. And New Zealand consumer confidence fell in March. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks at who might be the winners and losers in the tariffs Donald Trump is set to confirm, or at least announce, on Wednesday night. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks trade cautiously after Donald Trump sets a 25% tariff on car and car part imports. Gold hits a record high US$3,100/oz. Australia's Federal Government borrowing task has jumped, and the People's Bank of China turns dovish. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses why heavy equity outflows from Asian economies are likely to keep flowing after a swathe of US tariff announcements due on April 2. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks slide on fears Trump will announce car tariffs tonight. UK inflation falls unexpectedly. Australia's inflation rate slips as Budget rebates are set to keep repressing headline CPI. And Indonesia's currency is the lowest it's been since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari tracks the fortunes of silver following record-setting price moves for gold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US consumer confidence slumps into recession territory, Australia's Budget reveals a surprise tax cut, while future spending plans sit near expectations. Oil prices fall as Ukraine agrees a partial ceasefire. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny analyses how the Federal Open Markets Committee's projections for the US GDP have changed, and how rising uncertainty is hitting the world's largest economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rally on hopes Donald Trump will soften the blow of tariffs due next week. Flash PMIs for the US economy reassure. ANZ Research raises gold forecast to US$3,200 an ounce. And all eyes tonight are on Australia's Federal Budget. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes reveals two vastly different approaches to slumps in cobalt and lithium prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

ANZ Research has lowered its US growth forecast, while also nudging its China GDP forecast higher. Donald Trump's big tariff day on April 2 will be a key moment for global markets, and Japan's inflation is rising nicely for more Bank of Japan rate hikes. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton previews tomorrow night's Federal Budget. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Bank of England holds. New Trump sanctions on Iran pump up oil prices by 1.7%. Australia's big jobs fall in February is not expected to force more RBA cuts, while New Zealand's stronger Q4 growth shouldn't stop RBNZ from cutting more. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell digs into what led to New Zealand's faster-than-expected growth at the end of 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Fed has just held US official interest rates, but has forecast slower growth and two more rate cuts. Traders pushed the US dollar and market interest rates down. Gold jumped to a new high. The Bank of Japan also holds, but is expected to keep hiking. Australian jobs data today is forecast to show more growth. NZ GDP is forecast to bounce. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen looks at Fiji's growth outlook and considers what is needed to drive growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets fall ahead of tomorrow morning's rate decision by the FOMC. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates today, German policy makers get ready to take on more debt, and Australian consumers reveal their lowest confidence so far this year. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains what the Reserve Bank of Australia means when it says it will make ‘data dependent' decisions. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US retail sales are sluggish and dragging on US GDP growth. China's economy outperforms expectations, so ANZ Research lifts its China GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. New Zealand's housing market is stirring, but slowly. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing analyses China's fiscal response to soften the economic impact of US tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Gold finally jumps through US$3,000 an ounce. US consumer confidence about jobs and inflation slumps. New Zealand's GDP data is expected to show growth returned in the December quarter. And the Fed is expected to hold later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses how all the Trump tariff turmoil is affecting global markets and the US economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks slide again after a new Trump tariff threat. US inflation data was below forecasts. Migrant departures from New Zealand hit a record high, and Australian businesses didn't get the same boost as consumers did from the RBA's rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala analyses the impact on Australia from the Trump Administration's new metals tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US inflation is below forecasts. Donald Trump ‘un-doubles' Canada tariffs, but sets global steel and aluminium ones. Japanese bond yields hit their highest since 2008, thanks to safe-haven demand. And New Zealand's trucks got moving in February. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim looks at how India's growth rate over the next year may come in below potential, opening room for rate cuts as annual inflation falls, as it did in February to a weaker-than-expected 3.6%. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump doubles Canadian steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%, slamming markets again. Australian consumer and business confidence fall a bit. Japan's GDP is revised down, but strong wage growth is expected to keep the Bank of Japan hiking. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India's inflation rate doesn't look to be a problem for further policy easing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and US bond yields are down sharply this morning after Donald Trump accepted the US economy was slowing. Oil prices keep falling on global demand and supply fears. The euro is surging on hopes for bigger European investment spending. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the surprising performance of US shale oil producers and how they might respond to lower prices in a ‘drill, baby, drill' era. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Trump's vacillations on tariffs is unsettling US market and economic confidence, although some think a ‘Trump Put' will limit any fall in stock prices. Markets now expect more than three Fed rate cuts in 2025. China's deflation deepens in February. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin takes a closer look at Germany's plan to step off its ‘fiscal brake'. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Trump delays tariffs on auto imports for a month and the ECB cuts rates. Australia's exports to the US jump despite tariff uncertainty. Forecasts for New Zealand's Q4 GDP may fall, and Malaysia holds rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains why the RBA's February meeting minutes this week point to only one more rate cut this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Oil hits a six-month low and the US dollar drops 1% on fears trade wars will lower global growth. Private spending helps Australian GDP grow 0.6% in Q4. China sets a new growth target of 5%, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor resigns. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at whether the GDP growth Australia experienced at the end of 2024 can be sustained through 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks and bond yields fall sharply again after the United States imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, who retaliate with moves of their own. Australia's Q4 GDP is set for an export boost, while green shoots emerge in New Zealand's housing market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines what to expect from China's National People's Congress this week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets fall on fears about Donald Trump's tariffs, which are due to kick today unless he changes his mind. Australia's business indicators in Q4 beat expectations, as did a survey of China manufacturing in February. New Zealand exports jump in Q4. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani crunches the numbers on how much inflation might flow through to US consumers from Trump's tariffs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets take the White House clash in their stride. Tariff deadlines are more in focus, boosting the US dollar, in particular vs the Canadian dollar. Australian lending growth softens, and New Zealand consumer confidence remains subdued. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell analyses how New Zealand's housing market has started 2025. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar jumps after Trump says 25% tariffs will hit Canadian and Mexican imports from next Tuesday. New Zealand business confidence nudges up as interest rates fall, and weaker Australian capital expenditure may lower Q4 GDP forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how much the RBA's rate cut last week might feed through to Australia's housing market this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar stabilises with US bond yields after a surprise drop. Australian inflation is thrown around as electricity rebates roll off, while construction work shows hints of weakness. And Thailand cuts rates unexpectedly, with more cuts likely to come. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's International Economist Kishti Sen considers the outlook for Pacific island currencies amid global trade wars. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Sliding US consumer confidence hammers US Treasury bond yields down to their lowest levels since December. Australia's January CPI today could give clues on more RBA rate cuts. Australian consumer confidence jumps after the RBA's cut this month. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the prospects of OPEC going through with stated plans to reverse production cuts made back during Covid in 2020 and 2021.   Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets react cautiously to Germany's new Government. The US economy is softening because of tariff uncertainty. China's central bank is using off balance sheet tools to intervene in markets, and New Zealand's retail sector has perked up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Asia, Sanjay Mathur, has taken a closer look at the importance of household consumption in Asia's economies, especially in the face of tariff headwinds to their exports .  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

All eyes this week are on the latest tariffs drama and German election results, but in Australia, fresh inflation data will be in focus after the RBA's rate cut. The US dollar stabilises. Japan's inflation is strong, and New Zealand posts a trade surplus. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at two key issues in geopolitics: whether Trump's tariffs create inflation, and how the war in Ukraine might be resolved amid elections in Germany.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks are down after a Walmart warning. Australia's jobless rate ticks up, but jobs also surge, so the RBA says it's hard to see bad news in the data. And China holds its key rates, keeping its powder dry so it can cut when the US trade war hits. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou sorted through more than 10,000 product classifications to find out how the 10% tariffs being placed on China by the US would affect trade.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts 50 basis points and signals more to come. Australia's wage growth is lighter than expected, which is good news for the RBA ahead of January jobs figures today. They are set to show a solid labour market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk highlights how housing markets in Australia's capital cities struggled ahead of the RBA's rate cut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts hawkishly, warning of uncertainties around the labour market. The question now is whether it will cut again this year. And Australian consumers lost a bit of confidence ahead of the cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses the picture the Reserve Bank of New Zealand faces today as it decides how much to cut rates.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

European stocks hit record highs and bond yields rise as higher defence spending is priced-in amid Ukraine peace talks. Japan's economy hits its growth stride, and high dairy prices and a low Kiwi dollar are combining to support New Zealand's economy. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why the improving inflation outlook has given the Reserve Bank of Australia the room to cut 25 basis points to 4.1% later today, and then once more in August.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/