Podcasts about Deflation

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. This conversation was recorded at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. In this episode, we break down why software stocks are losing their moats, how AI is driving deflation, and why capital is rotating toward scarce assets. We explore hyperscalers, data centers, AI agents, and why bitcoin may emerge as the only true growth asset in a world of abundant intelligence.=====================Summ supports TurboTax and makes it easy to track your cost basis across 3,500 exchange, wallet and crypto integrations -- with support for DeFi, NFTs, staking and airdrops. Generate accurate IRS-ready reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. Summ is an official tax partner of MetaMask and Coinbase. Use code POMP20 for 20% off your first year at Summ: https://summ.com/us?via=pomp&promo=POMP20=====================This podcast is sponsored by Abra.com. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account structure.Learn more at http://www.abra.com.=====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.=====================0:00 - Intro0:56 – Cathie Wood's AI take & why Jordi disagrees4:30 – Why Big Tech may struggle to monetize AI6:57 – Deflation vs disinflation in an AI-driven economy10:08 – What investors should actually do right now14:12 – The scarcity trade & why bitcoin stands out16:25 – How investors can use AI to gain an edge19:16 – Where to follow Jordi Visser & his work

Existing home sales utterly crashed in January. Yes, January is not a great month for real estate shopping and there was obviously less than ideal weather, however those don't explain the 8.4% plunge in transactions. Analysts who were already factoring those other excuses only thought there would be a modest impact from them, not the biggest monthly drop in housing in four years. So much for that supposedly strong payroll report. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 8.4% Decrease in Januaryhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-8-4-decrease-in-januaryHousehold Debt and Credit Reporthttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlWhere Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most?https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/where-are-mortgage-delinquencies-rising-the-most/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We really, really messed up the jobs data the past few years, we got it almost completely wrong, but trust us, we're good now. That's what the BLS is saying today about its estimates for jobs and employment and right now no one is buying it. Why should they? The agency screwed up so badly it now admits there were 1.03 million fewer payrolls as of December than it previously thought. One million fewer payrolls. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The UK's Prime Minister is hanging on for his career after a series of missteps has his own labor party almost in revolt. The current crisis was triggered by an ill-advised appointment of an ambassador to the US who is caught up in the Jeffrey Epstein mess. But that's not really the issue. Once again, a government that came to power not even two years ago finds voters who can't wait to throw it out of office.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Starmer banks on economic growth to 'rebuild Britain'https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clll8d2vd8yoWhy UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an election he's expected to losehttps://www.cnn.com/2024/05/24/uk/prime-minister-rishi-sunak-election-intlUK Opinion Pollshttps://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-pollsNew UK prime minister Rishi Sunak warns ‘difficult decisions to come'https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-warns-difficult-decisions-to-come-as-he-assumes-officeUK General election 2024 Resultshttps://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/resultsHow unpopular is Britain's Labour government?https://www.economist.com/interactive/2025-british-politicsEurope's leaders are deeply unpopularhttps://www.axios.com/2026/02/10/europe-leadership-crisis-starmer-macron-merzhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Singapore shares inched higher today to track movements in the region. The Straits Times Index was up 0.39% at 4,983.73 points at 2.21pm Singapore time, with a value turnover of S$1.44B seen in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch today, we have CapitaLand Investment, after the real asset manager sank into the red with a net loss of S$142 million for its second half ended Dec 31, 2025, reversing from net profit of S$148 million in the previous corresponding period. Elsewhere, from a lookahead to Singapore Budget 2026 Statement, to how China’s factory deflation eased more than expected in January, more economic headlines remained in focus. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Dan Chang, Investment Specialist and Trading Representative, PhillipCapital.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/mFP5VcW or code euro50.Authorities in China are advising Chinese banks they need to seriously consider changing up their bond market allocations right now. Citing concentration risk as well as the possibility for volatility, regulators are supposedly trying to prevent depositories from buying bonds. If this sounds familiar, it should since the PBOC did something similar in the summer of 2024. But in this case, the asset being targeted isn't local. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChina Urges Banks to Curb Exposure to US Treasurieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/china-urges-banks-to-limit-holdings-of-us-treasuries-citing-market-volatilityForeign Holdings of US Treasuries Climbed to Record in Novemberhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/foreign-holdings-of-us-treasuries-climbed-to-record-in-novemberDollar Global Transaction Use Jumps to New High, Swift Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/dollar-global-transaction-usage-jumps-to-new-high-swift-saysPBOC Says No Longer in China's Interest to Increase Reserves (2013)https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-11-20/pboc-says-no-longer-in-china-s-favor-to-boost-record-reserveshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It was a trio of reports that turned an already shaky market into a disorderly mess. Private credit stocks were hit hard as were cryptocurrencies after ADP, Challenger and a delayed release from the BLS each overwhelmed expectations. Just more negative fuel to the selling fire as the riskiest financial markets were reeling from the economic implications.   Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre--------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------Challenger Gray & Christmashttps://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

- Was ist die wichtigste Makro-Aussage bei KI? - Wie nähern sich Anleger dem Trend? - Wann kommt der große Schub für die Wirtschaft? - Bringt die KI-Revolution Inflation oder Deflation? - Diktiert KI bald den Leitzins? - Arbeitsmarkt: Jobkiller KI? - Wer hat die besseren Karten? Die Rivalen China/USA oder doch Europa? - Datencenter-Bubble: Ein hohes Kreditrisiko? - Wer ist das nächste „KI-Opfer“ aus Anlegersicht? - Produktivität: das Mantra der ‚Tauben‘ bei Zinsen, Währung, Gold/Silber? - Sind Edelmetalle weiter wichtig im Portfolio?

European banks were asked what they thought about corporate credit opportunities in the coming year given that most officials, anyway, in Europe believe everything is picking up. As Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, is so fond of saying, Europe, European interest rate policy, inflation, the economy, everything is in a good place. Except, the answer the banking sector sent back surprised everyone and is almost certainly going to play a role in market volatility like we've been seeing recently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The yen carry trade is one of the most important — and least discussed — forces in global markets. In this episode, we break down how borrowing cheap Japanese yen has quietly fuelled global risk-taking for decades, why Japan became the world's funding currency, and where that money actually flows. We then dive into what's changed recently: political shifts under Japan's new government, rising equity and FX volatility, Bank of Japan intervention risks, and why even rumours of policy change are enough to rattle markets. This isn't just a Japan story — it's a global liquidity story.

Widespread financial meltdown continued again today, slamming crypto, silver, and private credit particularly hard. After what appeared to be an early morning rally, it didn't last as a range of more-than-disappointing labor data came flooding to the tape. The narrative of a 2026 pick up is not being picked up anywhere other than mainstream Economists.Eurodollar University Money and Macro Analysis

Pepsi is slashing prices for some of its most popular brands, some by 15%. The company said it has spent the past year listening to consumer feedback. Nah. What happened is always what happens in this economy and why there is no breakout inflation. Companies that do raise prices end up sacrificing volumes because their customers can't afford to pay more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University LIVE — February 2026, President's Day WeekendSmall group. Intimate setting. Direct access to experts you won't get anywhere else. Only a few VIP slots remain.Sign up here: https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page----------------------------------------------------------------PepsiCo to cut prices of Lay's, Doritos as consumers push backhttps://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/pepsico-tops-quarterly-revenue-estimates-resilient-demand-sodas-2026-02-03/After Years of Increases, PepsiCo Pledges to Cut Prices on Snackshttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/business/pepsi-doritos-cheetos-prices.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Bitcoin isn't just for public companies. Roland Talalas explains why his privately held business treats Bitcoin as its long-term treasury asset and how that decision impacts banking, credit, and growth. Hosted by Pierre Rochard, this conversation explores inflation, AI productivity, and why Bitcoin outperforms cash on corporate balance sheets.

They thought they were reassuring debt markets over AI cash. Instead, the company kicked a hornet's nest, unleashing a MAJOR selloff that is sweeping through private credit. It isn't just the BDCs (publicly traded funds) this time, either. The asset managers themselves are now getting swept up in the money outflows. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis

The selloff in precious metals, particularly silver, has extended into today's session. One reason why, one additional reason why, we're seeing reports of fraud emerge in heavy buyer China, including from a guy who's apparently called “the hat.” It's the kind of thing that usually comes up when big bubbles go up and then pop, so another sign that's what's happening here in the short run. Which raises another question, how far down might silver go in the near-term? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------China gold "protests"https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HbICfItSfZAhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/X: https://x.com/agurevich23Website: https://honteinv.com/0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now 2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today 3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals 4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion" 4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates 5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles 8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy 9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken 11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously? 13:13 Deflation, not inflation 14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal? 18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty 20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me" 23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses 24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over? 25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down 27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning29:47 The underappreciated power of carry 32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler 33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator 36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23 38:26 Has the macro investing world changed? 39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion45:18 Is energy the trade? 46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting 48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts

A key corner of the credit market is experiencing sustained and even accelerated selling at the end of January 2026. What we're talking about is historically one of the most economically sensitive segments, a growing caution about the climate ahead. And it's not the only one. From cryptocurrencies to the inability of the AI bubble to get going, the cracks continue to widen rather than fade away like everyone said they were going to. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend, February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What if getting cheaper is actually the goal?In this episode of KP Unpacked, KP Reddy and Nick unpack why AI-driven deflation isn't something to fear, it's the entire point of innovation. From Davos narratives to Elon's predictions to the Grok CEO's commentary, deflation is becoming the dominant framework for understanding AI's economic impact. But construction, housing, healthcare, and education have resisted this trend for decades. Why?KP walks through live AI experiments: writing 150 job descriptions in 30 minutes, automating recruiting workflows, and why corporate acquisitions like Consigli (AECOM) and Datagrid (Procore) are really about speed-to-market and talent acquisition, not just technology. The breakdown? These deals are cultural change plays disguised as product acquisitions and the real value is in people who are "in it" 24/7, not just using ChatGPT for poems.Key topics covered:Why deflation is a core first principle of innovation and why construction has resisted itThe real structure behind the Consigli acquisition: talent, change agents, and customer pull-throughWhy Procore bought Datagrid for speed, not capability. Bulletproofing AI takes timeHow MCP servers are hackable and why proof-of-concept to production still requires curing timeKP's live experiment: 150 job descriptions written and posted in 30 minutes using Claude CoworkWhy CEOs who subordinate AI strategy should resign, you can't delegate thisThe Canvas Robotics acquisition by JLG and what industrialized robotics mean for wall finishing costsWhy 30% of every building ends up in the dumpster and how AI + robotics finally solve itThe talent arbitrage game: why companies can't hire$5M individual contributors but can acquire themSafety improvements in construction: 96 deaths at Hoover Dam vs. today's job sitesIf you're a founder wondering whether your product roadmap is fast enough, an investor trying to understand why acquisitions are spiking, or an operator who thinks "using ChatGPT" counts as AI adoption, this episode will reset your expectations for 2025.Listen now.BuildingWorks & Brookwood Sponsors

Consumer prices are never going to go back to where they were before the pandemic. This simple reason is they can't. You think that since they went up, they can just go right back down. That's not unlikely, it is impossible and I'm going to show you why with a very simple example. Now the implications of this economic fact are profound. In fact, it explains everything about the economy we have right now, from the labor market and the lack of jobs to, yes, affordability.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Has the rally in silver gone so far now that the metal's price action is actually behaving like a meme stock? Or is there something more fundamental and deeply disturbing behind what precious metals are doing? Maybe we should consider how it isn't a loss of faith in the dollar as so many people wrongly claim which is propelling both gold and silver right now, what if it is the growing mistrust in how the entire world works and fits together. Or used to. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend, February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------Part 1: My Life Is a LieHow a Broken Benchmark Quietly Broke Americahttps://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-life-is-a-lieAgency Costs of Overvalued Equityhttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=480421https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  What was long predicted is now playing out in real time: China's centrally planned economy is sliding into a deflationary doom loop. Reports from Shanghai's largest clothing market show vendors overwhelmed not with sales—but with returns. Retailers are sending back unsold inventory, revenues are collapsing, and wholesalers say business is down by half from last year. Consumers don't have money to spend, yet producers—following Beijing's mandates—keep making too much. Prices are slashed to clear inventory, profits shrink, wages stagnate, jobs disappear, and spending falls even further. It's the classic downward spiral of command-and-control economics. Despite officially reported growth fueled by exports, warehouses are filling, housing markets are oversupplied, youth unemployment is soaring, and demographics are rapidly deteriorating. Central planning once again proves it can't dictate consumer demand—and China is now paying the price.

After cutting 14,000 jobs back in October and denying there were more of them coming, Amazon confirmed yesterday there will be another 16,000 layoffs and made comments suggesting the company won't be done even after then. These job cuts will only add to the worsening anxiety among American workers, who reminded everyone of those deep concerns in the latest plunge in consumer confidence. According to the most optimistic measure for it, from the Conference Board, confidence crashed to its lowest level in over a decade.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CNBC Amazon laying off about 16,000 corporate workers in latest anti-bureaucracy pushhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/amazon-layoffs-anti-bureaucracy-ai.htmlInternal messages reveal which teams, jobs affected in Amazon layoffshttps://www.businessinsider.com/internal-messages-teams-jobs-affected-amazon-layoffs-2026-1CB US Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in Januaryhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

One of BlackRock's private credit funds has just resurrected the cockroach concerns over debt woes in the space. By announcing that it will have to write down 19% of its net asset value, the fund also discloses more areas of cockroach concerns beyond those we had already become aware of. While at the same time, further reminding everyone how everything that people were worried about before they need to keep worrying about and then some. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------BlackRock TCP SEC Filing 8Khttps://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001370755/000114036126002240/ef20063739_8k.htmBlackRock Private Debt Fund Tumbles After Writing Down Loanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-26/blackrock-private-debt-fund-tumbles-after-writing-down-loansFlawed Valuations Threaten $1.7 Trillion Private Credit Boomhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/how-private-credit-market-boom-is-hiding-potential-valuation-problemsBlackRock to Auction Amazon Seller Once Valued at $1 Billionhttps://pe-insights.com/blackrock-to-auction-amazon-seller-once-valued-at-1-billion/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Feeling overwhelmed by the Ozempic/GLP-1 craze and worried about its effects on your skin? In this episode of Skin Talks, Beate sits down solo with skincare expert Valerie Potter-Johns to unpack the science behind GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, the rapid skin aging that can follow dramatic weight loss, and how you can protect and restore your skin, topically and holistically. Hosted by Beate von Huene of Boutique Skin Envie, this episode covers: • What GLP-1s are and how they work for diabetes and weight loss • Why rapid fat and muscle loss shows up first on your face • The four “D's” of GLP-1 skin changes: Deflation, Deep wrinkles, Dehydration, Density loss • How diet, hydration, protein and resistance training are your first line of defense • The truth about “GLP-1 in skincare” claims and why no cream actually contains Ozempic • Introducing VoluLift by IMAGE Skincare, patent-pending 4D formula to firm, hydrate, and plump post-weight-loss skin • Real clinical results: +20% volume, +22% firmness, −20% wrinkle depth in just 12 weeks • Expert tips on timing pro treatments, choosing ingredients, and setting realistic expectations Connect With Us Hosts: Beate → https://www.instagram.com/beatevonhuene/ Natascha → https://www.instagram.com/nataschaschillinger/ Guest: Valerie Potter Johns→ https://www.linkedin.com/in/valerie-potter-johns-5256bb45/?originalSubdomain=ca Website & Shop:

An unprecedented shakeup at the very top of the Chinese military has shaken up the rest of the world. Xi Jinping didn't just go after a longtime friend and ally, he has gone after everyone in what increasingly looks like a paranoid, Stalinist shakeup. But why? I've told you many times before about the economic pressure on China that has only intensified more recently. But that's not the only thing. That's where it starts, but where it ends is what is increasingly being confirmed as Cold War 2.0.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------60 Minutes How China could use U.S. farmland to attack Americahttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-china-could-use-us-farmland-to-attack-america-60-minutes/NYT Xi's Purge of China's Military Brings Its Top General Down https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/24/world/asia/china-top-general-xi-military-purge.htmlU.S. Secret Service dismantles imminent telecommunications threat in New York tristate areahttps://www.secretservice.gov/newsroom/releases/2025/09/us-secret-service-dismantles-imminent-telecommunications-threat-new-yorkhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is warning we shouldn't be focused on trade wars, instead the real concern is capital wars. In those, Dalio says there will be a reduced appetite for owning US government debt or any US assets. Maybe even including American stocks. The comments were made in the context of recent geopolitical flashpoints in Venezuela and Greenland. As always, there's a lot of noise surrounding this kind of topic, but what does the evidence say?Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend, February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------CNBC Ray Daliohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gda9T9gZSe4https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Get 50% off your first year by using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/xxoutOh or discount code euro50 when signing up for a free trial! Welcome to calm, confident money! #monarchpartnerA huge arctic blast, the weather wedge, has sent natural gas prices soaring in historic fashion. Some futures prices surged by a whopping 75% in just five days leading up to what people are calling the storm of the century. Freezing cold. Snow. Ice sheets. Icemageddon. Winter hazards slated to impact two-thirds of the eastern United States, roughly half the country's population. The combination of low natural gas inventories and that huge sudden for it, the jump in price is to be expected. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisHow A Weather Wedge Is Shaping This Weekend's Southern Ice Stormhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2026/01/23/how-a-weather-wedge-is-shaping-weekend-southern-ice-storm/Natural Gas Prices Across the US Surge Ahead of Arctic Blasthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/us-natural-gas-falls-after-record-breaking-three-day-rallyCEOs Wary of a Jittery US Consumer as Global Tensions Intensifyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/ceos-wary-of-a-jittery-us-consumer-as-global-tensions-intensifyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Markets look strong on the surface — but Michael Pento says the foundation is cracking.In this conversation, Michael breaks down why stocks, housing, and credit are all stretched at the same time — and why that combination has never ended well. We talk about a potential bond market revolt, political pressure on the Federal Reserve, and why changing leadership at the Fed could actually make things worse, not better.Michael also explains why a major market reset may be unavoidable, what a 40–50% drawdown would really mean, and why gold continues to quietly outperform while most investors aren't paying attention.If you're wondering whether markets reflect the real economy anymore — this is a must-watch.#gold #federalreserve #trump ------------Thank you to our #sponsor STLLR GOLD. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://stllrgold.com/------------

The Japanese government bond market suffered a major meltdown this week that has shaken up a lot of people as they try to figure out what's going on over there and how it might impact more than just government bonds as a class. One of the key factors that has emerged, however, is just how little selling it took to create these massive price swings. That has enormously profound implications.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The US housing market seemed like it was moving in the right direction recently, some better results people said were lower mortgage rates finally starting to work. But then reality dropped like a hammer today when the nation's largest realtor group reported a massive 9.3% drop in pending home sales for December, biggest monthly decline since 2020. Stunned analysts are trying to figure out why lower rates aren't stimulating housing and what these latest results mean.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------US Pending-Home Sales Plunge by Most Since Start of Pandemichttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/us-pending-home-sales-plunge-by-most-since-start-of-pandemicNAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 9.3% Decrease in Decemberhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-9-3-decrease-in-decemberNAR First-Time Home Buyer Share Falls to Historic Low of 21%, Median Age Rises to 40https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/first-time-home-buyer-share-falls-to-historic-low-of-21-median-age-rises-to-40BlackRock and Housing: Setting the Record Straighthttps://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/brochure/blackrock-and-housing-setting-the-record-straight.pdfTrump Signs Order Targeting Institutional Housing Investorshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/trump-signs-order-targeting-institutional-housing-investorshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Macy's is the latest retailer to admit to struggling in the current economic climate, closing several of what it calls fulfillment centers, basically warehouse facilities in Connecticut and Oklahoma and shedding thousands of those jobs. That comes in addition to even more store closings across the country. Why? Because only the wealthy are spending so the company wants to focus as much as possible on that segment. Macy's is not alone.  EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-pageEurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisDelta Declines on Tepid Forecast as Geopolitics Weigh on Travelhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-13/delta-places-major-boeing-order-as-earnings-support-travel-boomMacy's plans to close stores in 12 states—see if your city is listedhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/foodnews/macy-s-plans-to-close-stores-in-12-states-see-if-your-city-is-listed/ar-AA1UirgL?cvid=696b13e01f884a7ab6d68a7ead48018f&ocid=BHEA000Macy's to close Oklahoma fulfillment centerhttps://www.supplychaindive.com/news/macys-to-close-tulsa-oklahoma-fulfillment-center-bold-new-chapter/809289/Macy's to lay off nearly 1,000 at Connecticut fulfillment centerhttps://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-layoffs-cheshire-connecticut-fulfillment-center/809837/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Get 50% off your first year by using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/eB2fzzP or discount code euro50 when signing up for a free trial! Welcome to calm, confident money! #monarchpartnerChinese retail sales just did something they've never done before outside of the lockdowns. At the same time, capital investment continues to legitimately crash, December was third month in a row of steep declines leading to the first yearly negative for it in China's modern history. The only thing, the ONLY thing, keeping the economy from completely falling off a cliff is China selling everything it can everywhere else, especially in Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChina NBS Basic Situation of National Fixed Asset Investment in 2025https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202601/t20260119_1962326.htmlChina's economy looks more resilient than it feels as a property slump drags onhttps://apnews.com/article/china-economy-property-tariffs-jinping-17e9a32cf105764f457c1111f185dd3fMacron threatens tariffs on China "in the coming months" due to trade surpluseshttps://fr.tradingview.com/news/forexlive%3A3395740c5094b%3A0-macron-threatens-tariffs-on-china-in-the-coming-months-due-to-trade-surpluses/Tariffs of up to 50% go into effect, hitting imports from China, other non-FTA countrieshttps://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mexico-tariffs-go-into-effect-china/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What is going on with Freddie Mac? The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, which is Freddie's official, has seen its stock utterly pummeled this past week, crashing by 25%. Since Freddie is one of the mortgage giants, this isn't just some run of the mill equity. The story here appears to be tied up in a number of different angles, from GSE QE to its IPO, but the themes we keep coming back to are concerns over its cash and our jobs.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Every financial crisis generally takes place in three steps. And while there aren't bright, clear lines of separation between them, each one does have unique characteristics that allow us to get a sense of where things stand in the process. That's the thing, cycles are processes and as this one might go through all three steps, each one represents an escalation in that process. We're in Stage 1, that's just the start. Stage 2, it's getting serious. Make it all the way to three...well, you never want to see THREE.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Subscription DDA-all Offer for the Credit CycleGo from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with over 30 years of market experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down bitcoin's role in a deflationary world, inflation, Fed monetary policy, and the scrutiny around Jerome Powell. We also explore how AI is reshaping productivity and healthcare, the rise of humanoid robots, and what it all means for markets—plus a few laughs along the way.=======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.=======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/=======================0:00 - Intro1:01 – Are young people into bitcoin?6:58 - Deflation vs inflation (what it means for bitcoin)16:11 - AI agents & stablecoins: “what is money?”21:12 - Bitcoin price levels & Jordi's approach23:39 – Powell investigation (does it matter?)27:31 - Does GDP still matter?32:46 – Tesla & humanoid robots (how big is this?)39:05 – “Body Guard Circle” - security automation 43:07 – Humanoids reading humans (future risks)47:10 – Jordi's content & Miami live show

Today we're going be unpacking the latest from closely watched indicators out of China: bank lending data, household credit, the movement of the yuan, and what a single real estate developer—China Vanke—tells us about debt and payments right now. Bank lending in 2025 fell to the lowest since 2018 largely because household lending utterly collapsed. Yes, it collapsed last year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Japanese yen keeps tumbling and as it does it is tanking the bond market over there. What we have is the first case of a currency value setting interest rates, with, of course, the Bank of Japan helplessly caught in the middle. That helplessness is reinforced by the fact Japan's currency is being closely paralleled by South Korea's and others across Asia. The tumbling won and yen have led to government calls for stringent action, including from Treasury Secretary Bessent today.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powellhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htmBloomberg Tariff Pass-Through Limited So Far, US Data Showhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-13/tariff-pass-through-limited-so-far-us-data-show-evening-briefing-americas‘Sell America' Trade Is Revived by Trump's Latest Fed Attackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/fed-subpoenas-revive-sell-america-trade-on-autonomy-concernsSouth Korea Is Pulling Out All Stops to Try to Prop Up Wonhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-18/south-korea-digs-deeper-into-intervention-toolkit-as-won-slidesBessent Calls Out Drop in South Korea's Won After Remarks on Yenhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-14/bessent-flags-won-s-weakness-as-excessive-offering-rare-supporthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

JP Morgan missed on its earnings after failing to sell as many bonds as it was expecting for its customers. At the same time, Jamie Dimon, the bank's CEO, he of cockroach fame, was forced to acknowledge how the labor market had softened before then going on to describe Goldilocks anyway. This is something that has come up in a couple of other sources already, not Goldilocks though that is the Fed's official position, too. No, bond issuance is looking weak heading into 2026, another one of those key credit cycle signs.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------JPM Q4 2025https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2025/4th-quarter/d868c7ef-1670-465d-ba75-c2b36ddbcc6b.pdfJPM Q4 2024 https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/4th-quarter/36b3c0a4-3ecd-422e-8167-0a31372f3438.pdfA Growing Number of Bonds Edge Closer to Junk Statushttps://www.tradealgo.com/news/a-growing-number-of-bonds-edge-closer-to-junk-statushttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Scarce Assets: Alex Pron explains why wealth managers are finally embracing Bitcoin, how Wall Street distribution changes the market, & why long-term conviction matters more than cycles.---

Almost 40% of Canadian real estate funds have restricted access to investor funds, and that includes potential payouts. It's a sign of how deep the housing bust in Canada has gotten to be, but also applies to the situation that's spreading across global markets where it comes to the shadow bank matter. In fact, the UK's house of lords urged the Bank of England to look into private credit risks “as a matter of urgency.”Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery, it's a method.If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. Join us: https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Canadians Are Furious After Real Estate Funds Lock Up Their Moneyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/fed-subpoenas-revive-sell-america-trade-on-autonomy-concernsBloomberg Private Credit Risks Need Urgent Attention, UK Lawmakers Sayhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/lords-report-slams-uk-treasury-for-apathy-to-private-credit-riskhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Call it GSE QE. The same day it was reported US housing construction fell to the lowest since 2020, the Trump administration announced it was going to direct the housing GSEs, Fannie mae and Freddie Mac, to buy $200 billion in mortgage securities. The idea is that those purchases will reduce mortgage borrowing costs and offer some aid to struggling households who might then consider buying a house previously out of their reach.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Monetary Policy and the Mortgage Markethttps://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10336/schnabl_jh.pdfDid the Federal Reserve's MBS Purchase Program Lower Mortgage Rates?https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2011/201101/201101pap.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

US consumers have basically stopped using their credit cards. According to the Fed's latest data, revolving consumer credit declined again, the third time over the last seven months. And one of those other three was basically zero. There has been a clear change in attitude which means Americans aren't just feeling pessimistic, they're taking action about it. That is why consumer revolving credit is a critical cyclical signal, it draws together all the major components.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Blue Owl, a name we've gotten to know for all the wrong reasons, has been forced to come clean after getting sued by pretty much every class action securities lawyer in America, not only into admitting there was a wave of withdrawals but also promising to accommodate them over and above what it normally would. Not only does that further confirm the First stage of the credit cycle reverse, it actually sets up the second stage. In this video, we're going to cover where everything in the credit cycle stands and and more importantly what it all means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Publicly Traded Private-Credit Funds Set for Worst Year Since 2020https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-29/publicly-traded-private-credit-funds-set-for-worst-year-since-2020Bloomberg Blue Owl BDC Allows 17% Redemptions as Investors Storm Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/blue-owl-bdc-allows-for-17-redemptions-as-investors-storm-exithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This is simply insane – new car sales among American households making $75k or less have crashed by 30% since 2019. Car prices soared. Incomes didn't. They can't afford a new car. But it's not just the lowest incomes. Those making between $75k and $150k have bought 7% fewer cars than in 2019. This is a lot more than the K-shaped economy and to call it an affordability crisis seriously understates the problem. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Fox Business Fed Governor Stephen Miran says more than 100 basis points in rate cuts justified this yearhttps://www.foxbusiness.com/media/fed-governor-stephen-miran-says-more-than-100-basis-points-cuts-justified-yearBloomberg Slowing Auto Sales Stoke Concern Over Near-Record Car Priceshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/us-auto-sales-poised-to-slip-as-middle-class-buyers-retreathttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY: Alan Tonelson forecasts a difficult year for the PRC's economy in 2026, citing deflation and a property collapse. He predicts a strong global backlash against the surge of Chinese exports, which threaten foreign manufacturing sectors, as trading partners begin to prioritize their own national economic interests.1939 SHANGHAI

First off — Happy New Year. To kick off the year, this week's episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is a solo one from me. I spend the episode walking through my outlook for 2026 and sharing a few predictions for how I think this cycle is going to play out. Lately, I keep hearing the same question phrased in different ways. The economy feels tight, but markets are holding up. Growth is coming in stronger than expected, inflation is easing, and yet a lot of the signals people usually rely on just don't seem to be lining up. That disconnect is really the starting point for this episode. Rather than reacting to headlines or making short-term calls, I wanted to step back and talk through the mechanics of what's actually driving this environment — and why it looks so different from the cycles most of us learned about. A lot of it comes down to debt, policy constraints, how capital moves today, and the growing influence of technology. When you start looking at those pieces together, some of the things that feel confusing begin to make a lot more sense. This isn't meant to be alarmist or overly optimistic. It's simply an attempt to frame the environment clearly so you can think about it more intelligently — especially if you're deploying capital or deciding whether it makes sense to sit on the sidelines. If you've felt like the economy and the markets aren't really speaking the same language right now, I think you'll find this episode useful. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  You need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have, who own things, who own assets and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast, and today I am going to do something a little bit different. I’m gonna kind of give you. My perspective, maybe predictions I dare say about, uh, the upcoming year in 2026, how I look at it, what I think, uh, uh, is likely outcome and why. Not that I am any smarter than any of you on this stuff, but I’ve actually kind of sat down and, and thought about, you know, the things that are going on in the macroeconomic. Side of things and, um, put some stuff together and, uh, hopefully you’ll enjoy it. We’ll have, uh, that right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from. Your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your invest. Get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back everyone, and, uh, happy New Year to you. I forgot to even say that in the intro. How rude of me. Hopefully you had a great holiday, you had a great Christmas, and you’re bringing in the new year with a vision of health and wealth and PO prosperity and all that stuff. So anyway, let’s talk a little bit about, uh, you know what I am. Kinda looking at for 2026. Now, when you think about, well, what are these predictions and what could they be and all that, um, interest rates, inflation markets, you know, uh, let’s set the foundation for how I’m thinking about it, because everything else really kind of builds on it. And the most important thing to understand is that debt. Is really now I think the main character in the economy. I know we, people have been talking about this for a very long time, but I think, I think the debt issue is really, really becoming something that cannot be ignored, and I’ll get into that in a while. Obviously, I’m not saying that inflation and interest rates don’t matter. They matter enormously. Uh, those are the things that people actually feel, right? Higher prices, higher mortgage rates, higher insurance costs. What I’m saying is that the level of debt now determines really how decisions on those things are made from policy makers. You know, how do they respond to inflation and interest rates, recessions market stress. What debt does is it actually kinda limits the range of choices around how policy makers react to all these things. So once you see that, the behavior of the economy starts to, I think, make a lot more sense. So let’s start with. Sovereign debt, and I’m gonna start really basic here because the question is, you know, what exactly is sovereign debt? Okay. And sovereign debt is the money a government owes, okay? In the US it exists because the government consistently spends more than it collects in taxes, and that gap is called the deficit. When that happens year after year, you have an accumulation of debt. Now, when debt is low, it’s, it’s pretty manageable, right? But when debt gets very large, it starts to influence policy decisions, and that’s where we are right now. Uh, here’s the key mechanic that I think most people don’t really think about, right? Governments don’t pay off debt the way you and I, you know, pay off our debt, like mortgage or whatever. They always refinance it, right? So when the US government borrows money, it issues bonds. That’s how it does, those bonds have maturity dates, and when you buy a bond, you’re, you know, you’re loaning the government money. So when a bond matures, the government owes that principle back to you. Right? So that’s, that’s kind of how well we talk about, we talk about debt, but the government doesn’t save money over time to pay off that bond. Like, I mean, that’s the way you would think about it for you and me, right? I mean, at some point you’re like, ah, I really need to pay off this debt. I’m just gonna pay it off with this money that I saved. Instead, what they do is when a bond comes due, it issues a new bond and uses the money from that new bond to pay back the old one. Okay. Now, if that sounds familiar, uh, to you, it’s because it’s pretty much what we would call in plain English refinancing, right? Now imagine though, the government issued a bond a few years ago when interest rates were near zero. That bond matures today, interest rates are much higher, right to pay off the old bond. The government issues a new one at today’s higher rates. So the debt doesn’t disappear, it just becomes more expensive to carry, right? I mean, it’s just like you got a mortgage, you know you had a, a great rate, but you only got it for seven years and all of sudden you gotta refinance it. Gosh, all of a sudden that rate went really higher and your payments are much higher, and the debt payments going up, you know, for the government, what adds to that deficit? It’s a really, really vicious cycle. Now, take that process and multiply it across trillions of dollars of debt. Now you can start seeing why interest rates matter so much in a high debt system. Now, what makes this especially important right now is that for over the last several years, the US issued a very large amount of short-term debt. Short-term debt matures quickly, and that means large portions of government debt. Come due every year and have to be refinanced at whatever the interest rate exists at the time. So even if deficit stock growing tomorrow, which they won’t, the government would still need smooth functioning financial markets just to keep refinancing what it al what already exists now. This is why the economy has become so sensitive to interest rates, liquidity and confidence. Higher interest rates increase the cost of refinancing, right? We’ve mentioned that already. And that pushes deficits higher and forces even more borrowing. So I mentioned liquidity. What is that? Well, liquidity is about how easily money moves through the system. When liquidity is good, bonds are easily absorbed. Banks lend markets function normally, and when liquidity dries up, refinancing becomes fragile. That stress. Stress in the market spreads quickly. And then finally, confidence I mentioned too. Why does confidence matter? Well, confidence matters because investors need to believe that the system is gonna hold together. When confidence weakens, guess what happens? Well, what would happen if you think about it with a loan, a higher risk loan? While investors demand higher yields like refinance, it becomes even more expensive. And problems compound fast. Now, this is why Pol policymakers are extremely uncomfortable with high borrowing costs, reduced lending, falling asset values, and deep recessions. Recessions, by the way, don’t make debt easier to manage. They make it harder by reducing tax revenue and worsening debt ratios. Now that brings me to a, something that I am feeling sort of back and forth with. Um. You know, a listener who sent me some commentary about, you know, the fear of going back to 1970s, eighties style interest rates. But the thing is that I just don’t think that comparison works, and here’s why. Okay, so in the 1970s, the US had far less debt. Interest rates could go very high without threatening the government’s ability to refinance itself. Now today, with debt much larger relative to the economy, very high rates don’t just fight inflation. They stress the entire financial structure, right? You can’t just say, oh, we’re gonna make super high rates because the cost of all that debt the government has is gonna be extraordinarily expensive. Now, that doesn’t mean that rates can’t rise. It means policymakers have far less tolerance for how high and how long rates can stay elevated. It’s a completely different system from the 1970s and eighties. So I think trying to put things into that context is probably not, um, not a, a good way to think about it. So why am I fo focusing on this right now? Uh, instead of a few years ago, because again, we stu we didn’t suddenly become a high debt economy this year. So what changed? Well timing a massive amount of debt that was issued at very low interest rates, as I mentioned before, is now maturing and being refinanced at much higher rates, and that shift is no longer theoretical. It’s happening in real time. Last year, much of that low uh, rate, debt was still in place. Interest costs hadn’t fully reset, but going into 2026, they have no, I, I keep talking about, you know, how much we’re paying an interest, right? Because again, that’s a big difference between now and the 1970s when you could have, you know, you didn’t have as much debt so you could pay more interest on it. Right now, the US is now spending roughly a trillion dollars a year just on interest. Her perspective, right? I mean, what’s a trillion dollars? Uh, what does that even mean for the normal person? Well, for Perce perspective, that’s the defense budget. $1 trillion. It’s more than Medicare, more than most major federal programs. And the thing is that money doesn’t do anything, right. It doesn’t create growth. It just services past borrowing. And this is the point where debt stops being background noise, kind of an annoyance that people just say, well, we’ll kick it to the next generation. It start starts actively shaping, uh, policy decisions because it’s, it’s a thing that you gotta pay for. You gotta keep paying for it. So the takeaway I want you to carry forward is simple. We now live in a system where policymakers don’t have the luxury of letting things break when debt is low. Governments can tolerate deep recessions like you saw in the seventies and eighties and long recoveries. When debt is high, they can’t because even small shocks can just really get outta control quickly. And that’s the framework I think, uh, that I’m using as we move into interest rates, inflation, and what all this means for markets going into 2026. So let’s talk about interest rates. You’ve heard me say that I think that interest rates are gonna come down. Um, they’re gonna continue to tick down a little bit. I don’t think a lot, but I do think there’ll probably be at least one more rate cut. I think, you know, you’re probably gonna have some, um, uh, some lowering in the 10 year and, and the bond market in general. Uh, but interest rates are not gonna go back to 2010, right? They just aren’t. And. The 2010s were not normal. There were a very specific period created by very specific conditions, right? Inflation was persistently low, uh, but just wouldn’t go up. Globalization, uh, push prices down. Capital was abundant. Debt levels, well, they were high, but they’re rising, but they hadn’t become what they are now. And because of that, central banks could hold rates near zero without much consequence. That environment, unfortunately, does not exist now. So today, debt is much higher. Inflation risk is real again, and investors expect to be compensated for lending money long term. So even when rates decline from current levels, they do not return, uh, they will not return to where people, uh, anchor them psychologically. If they’re thinking about the 2000 tens, they’re gonna settle higher. Within the 2000 tens baseline, you see policymakers are kind of stuck if rates, uh, say too high for too long. We mentioned this before. Refinancing government debt becomes increasingly expensive. Interest costs rise, deficits, widen, and then you get that financial stress that’s spreads through the credit markets. But if rates are pushed too low for too long, borrowing accelerates. And that’s. When inflation resurfaces and confidence in the currency weakens, so then that’s the tug of war. So policymakers, uh, you know, they, they can no longer choose between high rates and low rates. They’re gonna be choosing how to manage, uh, the trade-offs, right? So what’s gonna happen is that you’re gonna see that rates are gonna move within a range. Uh, they come down when something breaks, they move back up when inflation pressures recurrent. Um, that’s why volatility matters more than the exact. Level of rates going forward, in my opinion. So we’re, we’re not returning to free money. We are also not headed to a permanent 1970 style high rate world. What we are doing is entering a time where borrowing costs matter. Again, refinancing is not guaranteed, and rate swings are part of the system, and that naturally leads to the question of inflation. So once you understand why rates. You know, don’t go back to the 2010. The next question becomes, uh, well, if policymakers can’t keep rates high for long and they can’t push them back to zero either, then what are they actually trying to ac accomplish? Well, the answer is that, that the goal is kind of shifted for decades. Economic policy was focused on disinflation, um, you know, pushing inflation lower and lower. Over time, uh, and inflation was actually treated as a failure, and that made sense. In a world with lower debt in a high debt world, that logic sort of breaks down, right? Deflation, which is actually falling prices, increases the real value of debt. Think about that for a moment. Like just in terms of. You know, you have a mortgage and you know, sometime, you know, your parents might have like a 30 year mortgage or something like that, that they’ve had for 25 years. They’ve been paying it off and it’s great. But the bigger thing to notice is the amount of money that they borrowed is actually very small in real world dollars because it’s, you know, 25 years later. See, inflation is bad when it’s, you know, you’re dealing with it, but inflation is. Good at one other thing, which is it’s good at eroding debt. It will make, uh, the amount of the value of the, you know, the actual money that you owe on debt lower over time. So that’s why you can’t have deflation, right? You can’t have deflation because that increases the real value of the debt. It discourages spending, slows growth and makes refinancing harder. So in today’s system, deflation is way, way more dangerous than moderate inflation. And so because of that inflation really isn’t something that I think is quite as important that has to be eliminated at all costs. That, you know, you have to be right at 2%, which is, you know, kind of what the, the fed his, his target is, right? Instead, what you gotta do is you gotta manage it. Of course, that doesn’t mean you want runaway inflation. What they wanna do is have enough inflation to keep nominal growth positive and prevent debt burdens from become heavier again. Why? What do I mean by that? You gotta have enough inflation to erode the debt that we have, right? So this is why that 2% inflation target should be understood. As, you know, kind of aspirational, but not absolute because having a little higher inflation, yeah, it hurts people. It’s, uh, it hurts people on a day-to-day basis, but actually helps with that. So even at, uh, you know, inflation sell a bit higher than, than, than the, you know, 2% fed target say it’s 4%, it’s actually eroding, uh, you know, it is eroding purchasing power, but it’s also eroding debt. It’s, it’s stabilizing debt dynamics. From the system’s perspective, of course that’s helpful. But for us, we’re paying for things on a day-to-day basis to see the cost of eggs and all that. It’s, it’s frustrating, right? And that tension between system stability and personal cost, it’s one of the defining features of the economy heading into 2026. So when you see policymakers tolerate inflation, uh, longer. Then you think they should or step in quickly When markets kind of wobble, it’s not confusion or incompetence, it’s actually constraint because debt limits the available choices. Rates are managed within a range. Inflation is guided and not eliminated. Now put those together and you get the environment we’re moving into, which is an economy where markets can look. Resilient, even while people feel stretched, right? I mean, that’s kinda what we’re feeling. Everybody’s like, oh, these markets are doing fantastic, you know? But then, you know, you look at consumer confidence, it goes down. It’s been going down every month. This is an environment where asset prices recover faster than wages, and we’re understanding how policy reacts becomes a real advantage. So that’s kind of my macro setup for 2026. Um, you know, with that framework, we can start looking into the first prediction I’ll make. And again, these are not, you know, crazy predictions. Uh, they are just generalized things that I think you’re gonna see. So, like the first one is that the markets will stop being reliable proxy for the economy. You could argue that’s already happened, right? Markets in the economy kind of stopped correlating. We saw it after the financial crisis, right? We saw it very clearly even during COVID. The decoupling itself is not new. What’s new is that that decoupling is no longer temporary. It’s become the baseline that’s become the new normal. Uh, for most of modern history people had a fairly reliable mental model, right? You probably do. If you grew up in the eighties and nineties, uh, as a kid or whatever, when the economy felt bad, layoffs, we growth falling in con incomes, markets usually reflected the pain. Right. Sometimes there was a gap. Sometimes markets recovered a little earlier, but eventually things kinda re converged. The economy healed. We just caught up in the markets and lived experience kinda lined up. Now that’s the model that most people still have in their heads, and that’s why so many people feel so confused right now. I mean, I feel confused by it. So what’s changed going into 2026? You know, it, it is, it’s structural Now. We’re no longer living in a system where policy intervenes only during emergencies. We are, uh, in a system where policy is always on, debt is permanently high, rates are actively managed, inflation is tolerated rather than eliminated. And as a result of that, markets aren’t really necessarily responding primarily to how. The economy feels to people they’re responding. Uh, you know, it’s responding to refinancing needs. Liquidity management. Uh, confidence preservation. That’s a very different signal. COVID is the clearest example of that ship, but it’s, it’s important to understand it correctly. So in 2020, the economy was literally shut down, right? Unemployment exploded. Uh, small businesses were collapsing, right? Like, this is COVID and yet markets bottom quickly. We saw that and then bam. All time highs, even though life kind of felt terrible for a lot of people. And that wasn’t because the economy was healthy, it was because policy overwhelmed fundamentals. And at the time that felt extraordinary. It felt very different. Like this doesn’t make any sense. What’s different now is that we’re still using the same playbook but with out in obvious crisis. So intervention is no longer reactive. It’s, you know, uh, it’s preventative. So what do I predict for 2026? Well, markets are gonna stop being a reliable proxy for economic health. Uh, you, you people can just stop talking about that. Like it, like it, it means anything anymore. Markets going to increasingly reflect how constrained policymakers are and how much liquidity is in the system, and how aggressively risk is being managed. They’re not gonna, the markets are not gonna tell you. About affordability, wage pressure, or whether life feels easier or harder for people. Right. Those are completely gonna, those are, it’s just a standard thing now that those are uncorrelated and the gap is not, uh, abnormal anymore. It’s. The operating environment. So what do you do with that information? Well, for an individual investor, this environment requires a real mindset shift, right? You can’t rely on your gut anymore. You can’t say, man, I feel like this economy doesn’t feel good. So the market’s gonna look at the, I mean, you, you, you know, a lot of people feel like the economy doesn’t feel good to them because of inflation, because of what happened with interest rates and all that stuff, right? But look it, you’ve got. Record breaking, uh, stock market numbers. You can’t rely on your gut anymore. Your gut is telling you the economy feels bad. For many people, that’s absolutely true. Costs are high. Again, things feel tight, and the instinct is to wait to sit in cash. To assume markets would reflect that pain, but that instinct used to work. And in this system it doesn’t because markets are no longer pricing in how the economy feels. They’re pricing policy response. Liquidity and constraints. So if you wait for the economy to feel good before you act, it’s gonna be way too late. So instead of asking, does the economy feel weak, you need to start asking different questions. You need to ask how constrained policymakers are, how quickly liquidity will return if markets wob on it, and where capital tends to flow first when policy steps sit. In other words. You gotta start really thinking about investing, right? Like you gotta, like right now. Now I’ve talked, I’ve beat this over many times before, but you know, you have, if you’re, if you’re saving money right now and you’re looking and you are wondering what to do, look for things that are on sale now. I spent real estate’s on sale right now. Right? Get your money into the markets one way or another. That’s what I would say. Whatever it is that you want to invest in. Don’t let your money just erode because this lack of correlation is, it’s a really, really important thing and it’s, it’s gonna continue to happen and you know what else is gonna happen Because of that, you’re gonna see an increasing widening up the wealth gap. People whose income is tied primarily to wages are, are gonna experience that inflation directly, right? Their money’s trapped in the real economy where costs rise faster than income. But investors on the other hand, have an opportunity to participate in the markets that are supported by this sort of unnatural infrastructure that I just mentioned, right? As asset prices are gonna continue going up. Now, I’m not here to judge whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, I’m just telling you how it’s functions. So the investor class increasingly benefits from asset appreciation, right? Early access to liquidity. While lower income groups often can participate in that upside. Even as their cost of living rise, because they’re not in the markets, they’re not, they don’t own assets. So again, you have to stop, you know, using how the economy feels is your primary investing signal. If you wanna protect and grow your wealth in this environment, you need to understand how policy reacts, how you know liquidity moves, how assets behave when the system is under constraint. And in other words, uh, you know. Frankly, you just need to be part of the winning class, which is the investor class. Alright, so that’s kind of, uh, hopefully that made sense to you. Here’s another prediction for you, and this is probably more related to some of the things that we talk about usually, but I’ll say that multifamily and commercial real estate are going to finish their washout, and the window is gonna start to really close again. I’ve talked about this. Before, you’ve probably heard me say this, but let’s talk about multifamily and commercial real estate again, because you know, this audience doesn’t need just theory. You’ve already lived through the pain or the past two years you’ve seen deals blow up, capital calls go out, refinancings fail. So the real question going on in 2026 is not whether real estate breaks. It’s already, it already did. It already did. The real question is how much longer this phase lasts and what replaces it. My view is that 2025 into early 2026, um, represents the final phase of this unwind in the beginning of stabilization. I’m not predicting an immediate boom, not a return to 2021 by any means, but the end of obvious distress. So what’s happened already from 2022 to 2024? Multifamily and commercial real estate absorbed the fastest rate shock in modern history. Many of you lived through that. I lived through that. It’s painful. Debt costs doubled or tripled. Cap rates moved hundreds of basis points. You know, bridge debt structures broke, uh, refinancing assumptions collapsed. Now, a lot of the deals, I mean, I would say most of the deals, uh, uh, that, you know, kind of imploded, uh, shared the same DNA, you know, peaking price, uh, purchases, uh, during peak prices in 2021, early 2022. Uh, you know. Floating rate thin or negative cash flow based on, you know, the rates at the time. Maybe it was positive business plans that were really dependent on refi and rent growth. Um, those deals though, have largely already defaulted, recapitalize, or, you know, they’re being quietly handed back. And that matters because markets don’t keep breaking the same wave forever. If, if you’re seeing right now and if you’re in our investor club, you are. 30% discounts on a regular basis. Right? On a regular basis compared to the peak. Don’t assume that’s gonna last. That this is the key point I wanna make very clearly. If you’re looking at multifamily or commercial deals today that are trade trading at that 30% below where they were a couple years ago, you should not assume that window stays opening. Definitely because the level of discount there, uh, the level of discount exists because. Dried up liquidity, uh, because of that violent rate reset, uh, uncertainty. But here’s the thing, markets don’t stay frozen forever and as soon as pricing stabilizes, even at higher cap rates, which are going to be higher than they were, because you’re not gonna see interest rates down at zero, capital is gonna start to move again. And stabilization doesn’t require rates to go back to zero. It just requires some level of predictability. So here’s the sequence of what happens first, you know, the distress slows, uh, you see less and less defaults, and then slowly but surely cap rates stop expanding, right? That alone brings back buyers. Then as rates drift mo lower and volatility declines, lenders reenter selectively, debt becomes a billable again. It’s not cheap. It’s definitely usable and that brings more liquidity. When I say liquidity, in this context, I’m talking about just more deals getting done. And once liquidity returns, cap rates don’t stay wide forever. They compress, right? It’s competition. And again, when they compress, they’re not gonna go back to 2021 levels, but enough to meaningfully lift asset values from distressed pricing. This can happen faster than people expect, right? People underestimate the fact that there is an enormous amount of capital sitting on the sidelines right now in money market funds, short term treasuries, private capital, waiting for clarity. That capital isn’t, you know, permanent. The moment investors believe that rates of peak, that prices of stabilized downside risks is contained, that money starts to chase yield. When it does the transition from, nobody wants this, everyone wants exposure again, can happen surprisingly fast. In other words, I’m not saying I think this will happen in 26, but the shift from a market that is on sale, which I’ve described it as to a market that is starting to look a little frothy, can really be just a couple of years. And in that situation, I’d rather be a net seller, right? You wanna be accumulating. During this phase of for sale so that you can sell in froth. So what this means is that the market is, you know, uh, is not a market to wait for everything to feel perfect, because by the time it does, the obvious discounts are gonna be gone. And if you wait for perfect clarity, you’re gonna be competing, you competing with institutional capital, with large private funds and, and, and yield hungry money coming outta cash. The opportunity is not assuming distress lasts forever. It is. It’s in recognizing when the market is transitioning from forced selling, which is what is happening even now to price discovery. So ultimately, the prediction is this multifamily and commercial real estate, that that washout is completed in 2026 and the window created by distress really starts to close. Deep discounts don’t persist. Once market stabilized, which I think is what’s gonna happen, and then I think you’re gonna start to see a shift. You’re gonna start to see more deals, more liquidity, and that’s gonna return faster than people expect. In other words, this is gonna be the end of, you know, sort of this bargain basement, you know, panic pricing. And once real assets stabilize and liquidity returns, attention inevitably turns, uh, to the currency, those assets are priced in. Which brings us to the prediction number three. That dollar, okay, the dollar doesn’t collapse, but it does continue to erode. It slowly leak, right? Let’s talk about the dollar, ’cause you hear about this all the time, right? A nausea, you hear the, the weakening of the dollar. Um, this is one of those topics that where people tend to jump to extremes. You know, on one side you hear the dollar is about to collapse. On the other side you hear the dollar’s strong and everything’s fine. I think, um, the truth is somewhere in, in the middle. And my prediction for 2026 is simple. Um, again, the dollar doesn’t really explode. It doesn’t get replaced. It can just continues to erode slowly but surely. And that’s how reserve currencies actually behave when debt gets high. Right. So why no collapse, right? Because you got like people out there, uh, worried about the collapse of the US dollar. The US dollar is gonna remain dominant, not because it’s perfect, but because there’s no real alternative at scale. There just isn’t. Okay? There’s no other currency with markets as deep, as liquid and as widely used for trade debt and collateral. So, you know, reserve currencies, you know, you hear about the, the worry about us being the reserve currency. Well, reserve currencies don’t disappear overnight. They erode gradually, but they don’t disappear overnight. And that erosion shows up not as a crash, but again as persistent inflation, right? It’s rising, you know, real asset prices, which is again, where you wanna be, and a slow loss of purchasing power over time. Again, that brings us back to the whole issue of debt we were talking about, right? So in a highly indebted system, policymakers are not incentivized to aggressively defend the currency at all costs, right? So very high interest rates might strengthen the dollar in the short term, but they also make debt harder to service and financial stress worse, right? So instead of choosing strength or collapse. Um, you know, policy drifts towards tolerance, right? Inflation is allowed to run a little hotter than people expect, because again, it’s gonna erode that debt. The currency weakens slowly, therefore, rather than violently, right? Again, currency weakening. It’s that, it, it’s so entwined with this idea of inflation because debt becomes easier to manage in real terms. And one of the things I hear, and I’ve been sort of in these conversations back and forth with, um. At least one of you out there, uh, in, in emails is that, you know, I hear, uh, that, that, that there’s a, a serious problem for interest rates because of, you know, China, uh, selling US treasuries. And because of that you might get the collapse of the dollar. In fact, in this conversation, it was not only about China, but also Europe. Which, you know, I hadn’t actually heard anybody mention that before, but I guess that’s out there in the ecosystem and some of the newsletters. Now, all that sounds scary, but it really misunderstands how the system actually works. What exactly happens when someone or a country sells treasuries? Well, they don’t dis, they, they don’t just destroy the dollars. What they’re doing is they just swap $1 asset for another, right? The dollars don’t even lead the system. They change hands. So this idea of China selling off all it t trade, well, China’s been, uh, reducing its treasury holdings for years and the dollar hasn’t collapsed. The market absorbed it because treasuries are the deepest, most liquid market in the world. And then this idea of Europe, of of Europe actually dumping treasuries because, you know, they’re not happy with Donald Trump and what he’s doing in Ukraine and all that, that would be an absolute nightmare for, for Europe. That would hurt their own economy. That’s the last thing that an indebted government wants. So foreign selling, yeah, sure it’s gonna move yields, but it, it’s not gonna implode the dollar. But the reality of the, uh, erosion of the dollar is real. I don’t think anybody questions that anymore, and I think that is another reason that you need to be buying. Real assets. You need to be buying equity. You need to be on the side of the investor class. Okay? That’s, that’s how you combat all of this. So the real takeaway here ultimately is that, you know, it isn’t, uh, to abandon the dollar, right? It isn’t. It’s, it’s just to stop pretending that holding cash is neutral. It’s not, it, most of your wall suits and assets that, that can’t adjust. You know, they can’t grow as, you know, as, as asset prices grow, then you’re making a bet on currency stability that literally no one believes is, is going to be the base standard anymore. Everybody knows, every economist, every country, every everywhere knows that these currencies are eroding. You don’t freak out about the dollar, but don’t, don’t, don’t be like heavily in dollars. Start getting into the markets. Alright, well, you know, I’m talking a lot about esoteric macro stuff, but let’s kind of get into some stuff that you might think is fun, more fun maybe. Okay. You, a lot of you are into Bitcoin. Well, I think that, you know, Bitcoin is gonna continue to mature. And the next look, leg up looks like, you know, because of more adoption, not because of hype, which isn’t maybe not as, as, as fast and violent, but it’s, it’s, it’s a lot more predictable. For those of you who are still unfortunately listening to the likes of Peter Schiff about Bitcoin, you gotta stop doing that because Bitcoin is not tulips. Right? A lot of people still talk about it like it’s a fad that could just vanish. We’re long past that phase. Bitcoin is, is, is a $2 trillion asset and in the history of the world, there has never been a $2 trillion asset that went to zero. Is it volatile? Yeah, it is. It can absolutely continue to be wildly volatile, but you’re not going to zero. And my prediction is not overly crazy. It’s just that. Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in price, but it’s not become, not because of speculative, uh, you know, because it’s a speculative trade anymore, right? I think it’s because of adoption. Uh, adoption is going to become the real meaningful driver of market capitalization. So what do I mean by that? It just means more people are seeing it as a real asset, and it has to become, when it becomes a real asset class, everyone has to have some of it. Every major institution has to have some of it because it’s an its own asset class. And when they do that, it just drives up the entire market capitalization of that asset. And when you have an asset that has a finite amount, which in the case of Bitcoin, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. You have constant adoption, constant slow, but persistent growth in market capitalization, the asset has to become more expensive. Now, what do I mean by this adoption? Well, places that you would never think in a million years, a few years ago, that that would be buying Bitcoin or you know, ETFs, B to Bitcoin ETFs are doing. So Harvard. Harvard is a great example. Because it’s not, it’s not crypto influencer, right? It’s actually one of the most conservative, brand sensitive pools of capital in the world. But their endowment management, uh, disclosed roughly 443, uh, million dollars in its position in BlackRock, uh, BlackRock, iShares Bitcoin, Bitcoin Trust, which is ibi for those of you who, who, uh, don’t know, that’s how you can just go to your New York Stock Exchange and, and buy. Bitcoin ETFs with ibit. Now, whether you love this whole Bitcoin idea or hate it or whatever, that’s a signal that is increasingly treated like a portfolio asset. It’s not a fringe experiment, and it’s not only universities. Uh, institutional comfort is it’s just there, right? Um, custody, uh, custody regulated vehicles, positioning, size, risk controls, those kinds of things are all become part of the Bitcoin uh, environment. Many countries are already holding meaningful amounts of Bitcoin. Uh, even the US has, there’s a, there is a formalized Bitcoin reserve. Now we aren’t actively buying it, but here’s an interesting thing with Bitcoin, you can, when it is, uh, the way that the US is accumulating Bitcoin is through seizures. Alright? Bad guy gets caught. His boats, his house and his Bitcoin get, uh, confiscated. So the US will sell the house, they will sell the gold, they will sell the boats, but they will keep the Bitcoin. What does that tell you? You know? And, and there’s a lot of nations that are actually openly holding and, and buying Bitcoin. I mentioned the US China. This always seems to be, uh, you know, anti Bitcoin. Well, they actually own quite a bit the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, El Salvador. Bottom line is there’s a big change in narrative, right? That this is a real asset. So this is something that, you know, even if it’s 1% of a major, uh, institution’s assets or less than that, or whatever, it’s part of it. And that adoption alone can move prices from, from here. And that’s what I think a lot of people miss because they’re like, well, you already had a big move and you know, instead a hundred, it’s 80 or 90 or a hundred, whatever. It’s, it’s not going much better, bigger than that. Well, Bitcoin is, is actually really small relative to global pools of capital. So at this stage, adoption alone. Not even the crazy mania of the past can make a non-trivial increase in market capitalization and therefore a mark, you know, a non-trivial increase in the actual price of Bitcoin. All it’s gonna take, and you’re gonna see this, you’re gonna see more endowments, you’re gonna see more sovereign wealth pool, pensions, mod model portfolios, all they guys daisy side, when you know, even with a small allocation. It doesn’t take too much to overwhelm the available float because Bitcoin is scarce and a lot of it’s held tightly. So as far as Bitcoin goes, what do I think is gonna happen? I believe all time highs are gonna get challenged. They’re gonna get broken again in 2026, not because again, everyone’s suddenly becoming a crypto maximas, but because adoptions could just gonna continue to grow. The wild card, I should say, is that the US moving from, we hold. What we seized in terms of Bitcoin to actively acquiring reserves could be enormous catalyst. And there is a lot of talk about this right now. Um, if the market ever believes that the US is a consistent buyer, even in a constrained budget neutral way, that changes the psychology fast. And in that scenario, I think 200,000 plus, uh, $200,000 plus Bitcoin by the end of 2026 becomes very plausible. Zooming out. I’ve said this before, you may think I’m crazy, but again, because of adoption, I think that Bitcoin is at a million dollars five to seven years from now. So what does that mean for you? Well, I mean, I think at the end of the day, if you don’t own some, you might want to, I’m not gonna give you financial advice, but again, just like Harvard’s doing it, you know, major, major endowments are saying, well. You know, maybe we’ll just buy, like, you know, 2% of that, 2% of our, our, uh, endowment will be made of something like that, right? Uh, you know, it’s just even a very small amount, but exposure to it makes a lot of sense. So I think that is something to highly consider if you are still on zero when it comes to Bitcoin. All right, now here’s my last, uh, prediction. You may have heard me talking about this before as well, that AI becomes a deflationary force that policy makers finally wake up to. And I think this is actually one of the most important and misunderstood economic developments, um, that is currently already out there. But I think it’s, it’s gonna be really recognized. By the end of 2026. Okay. Artificial intelligence is gonna stop being just a tech story, and it’s gonna become a macroeconomic story. I think that by the end of 2026, artificial intelligence is clearly, uh, you know, it’s clearly, um, going to be boosting corporate earnings while beginning to materially reshape the labor force. Um, and what’s gonna happen is that central banks and policymakers are gonna start treating it. Is a genuinely deflationary force over the next several years, and they’re gonna try to have to figure out what to do about it. And again, going back to our earlier conversation, because deflation is really a real problem for a country with an enormous amount of debt. So let’s get a little bit into the whole deflationary uh, conversation. So artificial intelligence at its core is a productivity machine, right? It allows companies to produce more. Without, with fewer inputs, fewer hours, fewer people, fewer stakes and productivity always shows up in profits before it shows up in everyday life. Right now, lower cost per transaction, faster execution, fewer people doing the same amount of work, widening margins without price increases. That’s the tell. That’s when profits rise without raising prices, something deflationary is happening underneath the surface. The biggest impact there is the labor market, right? It’s gonna be impossible to ignore. And this is where the conversation really shifts because artificial intelligence doesn’t need to eliminate jobs outright to matter. It only needs to reduce the number of people required to do it, right? So you’re thinking the labor markets, you’re gonna see a lot of this. You’re gonna see more slowing in hiring. Um, even while productivity expectations rise, and I think by late 2026, the public conversation is gonna change from will artificial intelligence affects jobs someday to why aren’t companies hiring the way they used to? And of course, that’s when people are gonna start paying attention and they’re gonna notice it’s deflationary because it’s going to be because artificial intelligence is gonna push down the cost. Of services, administration, customer support, research, and eventually decision making itself. That’s why it’s, it’s deflationary, it’s structural, right? Just think of all those things you can do for so much cheaper. That is what deflation is, right? And again, we mentioned before deflation is not something central banks are comfortable with because of debt and because debt heavy systems rely on nominal growth. Deflation makes debt heavier in real terms as opposed to what we said before, which is that inflation actually erodes debt. And that is a, a very, very challenging problem. And by 2026, I think you’re gonna hear a lot about this, you know, policy problem that we have. Which is innovation versus, you know, deflation. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide finance. Financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Alright, well, so that’s basically it for my, uh, predictions. And I know I’ve kind of. Off on many different tangents, so hopefully it’s useful to you at least to start thinking and doing some of your own research. Bottom line is this, I mean, as, as a investor, what can you do? I think the big story here is understanding that, um, you need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have. Who own things, who own assets, and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. And so, you know, my best, uh, won’t call it advice, but my own belief is that it is a, it is a very good time to look around and look for assets that are underpriced because I think everything is going to expand and it’s gonna ex expand. Uh, and you don’t wanna be caught, you know, on the, uh, dollar side of that equation. So. That’s it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast. Happy New Year. I’ll see you next week. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

Commodities are going nuts right now, with copper now parabolic joining silver on the crazy train. Gold is lagging behind both, which is not a good sign for each's ability to stay on the upside. Meanwhile, at the complete other end of the commodity spectrum is oil, not just in terms of prices but key spreads in Middle East markets. One of those just flipped for the first time in years, signaling growing worries about global demand.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery, it's a method.If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. Join us: https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-pagehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Loss of momentum isn't just happening in the US, it is very well synchronized globally with practically the same pattern showing up everywhere. Updates from neighbors Canada and Mexico show a deepening downturn at the end of last year, especially Mexico putting up its deepest contraction since April. Over in Europe, Germany fell back bringing Italy down with it. Plus, global bellwether Switzerland experienced its own “unexpectedly” sharp setback. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SPG Canada Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/78c6ddcb80cf4ef0b14fc9dc3c091c86SPG Mexico Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/47f22c8de61b4d54965a25c3d3c417caSPG Germany Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bd3c462f68704c5ea1613f2fce2879fdSPG Italy Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/be3b992b4ebb4b4db3030abaff5e0bc5Bloomberg Swiss Manufacturing Contracted More Than Anticipated in Decemberhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/swiss-manufacturing-contracted-more-than-anticipated-in-decemberhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In this episode of Coin Stories, Natalie Brunell is joined by Jeff Booth, author of The Price of Tomorrow, for a deep conversation about why what we call "capitalism" has never truly existed. We discuss: The truth behind rising prices & declining quality Myths of the free market and deflation How Bitcoin could reshape economic incentives The difference between capitalism and crony capitalism The impact of government regulation: does it really protect us? Why monopolies are incompatible with a truly free market Watch our first masterclass on inflation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tQIGuCyOHQ  Order Natalie's new book "Bitcoin is For Everyone," a simple introduction to Bitcoin and what's broken in our current financial system: https://amzn.to/3WzFzfU  --- Coin Stories is powered by Gemini. Invest as you spend with the Gemini Credit Card. Sign up today to earn a $200 intro Bitcoin bonus. The Gemini Credit Card is issued by WebBank. See website for rates & fees. Learn more at https://www.gemini.com/natalie  ---- Ledn is the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. Get .25% off your first loan, learn more at https://www.Ledn.io/natalie  ---- Earn passive Bitcoin income with industry-leading uptime, renewable energy, ideal climate, expert support, and one month of free hosting when you join Abundant Mines at https://www.abundantmines.com/natalie  ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product Partners: For easy, low-cost, instant Bitcoin payments, I use Speed Lightning Wallet. Play Bitcoin trivia and win up to 1 million sats! Download and use promo code COINSTORIES10 for 5,000 free sats: https://www.speed.app/coinstories  Block's Bitkey Cold Storage Wallet was named to TIME's prestigious Best Inventions of 2024 in the category of Privacy & Security. Get 20% off using code STORIES at https://bitkey.world   Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie  With BitcoinIRA, you can invest in bitcoin 24/7 inside a tax-advantaged IRA. Choose a Traditional IRA to defer taxes, or a Roth IRA for tax-free withdrawals later. Take control of your future with BitcoinIRA: https://www.bitcoinira.com/natalie  Natalie's Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Strategy World 2026 in Las Vegas on February 23-26th - Use code HODL for discounted tickets: https://www.strategysoftware.com/world26  Extra Services to Consider: Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie   Ditch your fiat health insurance like I did four years ago! Join me at CrowdHealth: www.joincrowdhealth.com/natalie  ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

The number of legendary investors calling this an AI bubble continues to climb, with Howard Marks, co-founder of Wall Street giant Oaktree flatly stating if AI isn't conforming to the historical bubble pattern, it will be a first. But there are some key differences within that pattern that just aren't being fully appreciated. Starting with how this AI bubble isn't actually about the stock market. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU