Oil prices down big again. A lot more contango, too. Bond buying remains heavy and while not quite to the bull steepening it's moving in on that key point. All signs point to lower rates ahead, but isn't that a good thing? That's what we're supposed to believe...Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke: Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress April 2008https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080402a.htmCNBC: Bernanke Says US Could Be Facing A Mild Recessionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2008/04/10/bernanke-says-us-could-be-facing-a-mild-recession.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve
In Episode 374, we delve into the era of deflation in the reselling world. With prices on eBay for items like video games and antiques going down, and thrift stores becoming competitors, the landscape is changing. We discuss the phenomenon of Whatnot, the trendiness of reselling, and how to source differently in this new market environment. Plus, don't miss our 'Hustle of the Week' stories, featuring some incredible finds and sales. Learn how to run aggressive sales, manage hidden costs, and prepare for slow times, all in the face of deflation. Join the Discord and Partner with us via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/purehustlepodcast Sign Up with MY RESLLER GENIE with 15% off your first month for the best bookkeeping geared for resellers by using the link below and USE OUR CODE “PUREHUSTLE” all in caps: https://www.myresellergenie.com/?ref=purehustle Get a free $15 on Whatnot by using the link below: https://whatnot.com/invite/purehustlepodcast Get that Skullshaver using the link below and our code "Hustle": https://skullshaver.com/discount/Hustle?rfsn=6980222.2cfe107&utm_source=refersion&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=6980222.2cfe107 Purchase bubble wrap from the best deal available ANYWHERE: https://www.americanbubbleboy.com?sca_ref=650095.KTEipe5MI4&sca_source=YouTube Sign Up for listing services with Sellhound and receive 25% your first purchase or 25% off your first month of a Sellhound monthly subscription when using our affiliate link and promo code PUREHUSTLE25. By the way, everyone gets three free listings to try out before any purchases! Just go to Sellhound.com and subscribe using our promo code PUREHUSTLE25. Sign Up for Crossposting with Vendoo and receive 25% off your first month when using our affiliate link. In order to receive the discount, subscription must be purchased from the same device used to create the account: https://vendoo.co/register?via=purehustlepodcast Purchase PHP Shirts: https://www.ebay.com/itm/392367249736 Donation link: https://www.paypal.me/purehustlepodcast?locale.x=en_US Below is a link to all the shipping supplies we buy through Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/shop/purehustlepodcast Bellow is a link to shipping supplies that we use: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1bR2h1PrrljhI5GKeQYWG6ubLOfkqSt0gLFmSxPm52nA/edit?usp=sharing Instagram - @purehustlepodcast Twitter - @purehustlecast Facebook - purehustlepodcast Youtube - Pure Hustle Podcast - www.youtube.com/channel/UCuEJMAB8GdoaPK7eLkKmAiQ
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserveMore big moves in the markets including key financial numbers. It is increasingly looking like we've reached the point of non-linearity for both the monetary system as well as the real economy. While waiting for labor market confirmation in the US about what's already happened, interest rate swaps are pricing ahead and like forward rate hedging there's not much to be upbeat about. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve #europe Wild trading last week wasn't just about recession worries, there was quite a bit of fear pushed into curves particularly forward curves and especially those in Europe. By Friday, the moves were astounding, the sort of swings last seen clustered around March and April. First, a review of what happened and then some analysis as to why therefore what. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve Recent Federal Reserve report claims at least half the country is already in recession, while another substantial portion likely is. Not only does that match softening rhetoric from policymakers, obviously there's been a radical change in markets, too.Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreFederal Reserve Beige Book November 29, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20231129.pdfISM for November 2023https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/november/CNBC: Black Friday weekend shopping turnout soars to a record, as consumers seek bargainshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/28/black-friday-weekend-shopping-turnout-soars-to-a-record.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
In this enlightening episode of the Mark Moss Show, Mark delves into the concept of a reverse market crash, a situation that could drastically impact our standard of living. While most people brace for a deflationary crash, Mark presents a compelling argument for the possibility and consequences of an inflationary crash. He explains how markets can crash in two ways: deflationary and inflationary, and why understanding the difference is crucial for your financial health. Using historical examples, including the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe's hyperinflation, and Japan's lost decade, Mark illustrates the real-world impacts of these economic phenomena. He also contrasts these with the 2008 financial crisis to provide a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. The episode is packed with practical tips and insights on how to not only prepare for these potential crashes but also how to take advantage of the opportunities they present, drawing wisdom from renowned investors like Warren Buffett and the Rothschilds. Mark also dives into asset allocation strategies, focusing on scarce and energy-intensive assets, and emphasizes the importance of safeguarding and increasing your income in turbulent times. If you're looking to navigate through economic uncertainty with confidence, this episode is a must-listen!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #government #governmentdebt #debt Governments are out of control. This insanity can't go on much longer, can it? Understanding how it came to be this way, and why, that's the key to answering that question. Blackmail and myths. The problem isn't really govt debt, it's what the debt is being used to (try and) cover up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #china The more the Chinese government does, the worse you know it must be. China's government is doing even more. That simple rule applies to the global economy since conditions there are a reflection of how it's going around the world. Despite expectations the country has "turned a corner", the data keeps showing just the opposite. Globally synchronized and not in a good way. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: China Factory, Services Activity Shrink in Snag for Recoveryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/china-s-factory-activity-shrinks-again-in-sign-of-recovery-woesSAFE: Balance of paymentswhttps://www.safe.gov.cn/en/2023/1103/2145.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe #japanInterest rates all over the world are dropping, fast. Economic fundamentals are being repriced in global bonds - hard - now that the September effect has fully dissipated and - this is the important part - the world is more and more confirmed in its ugliness. So much so, even a former Fed hawk has to admit something has changed. Just wait until he finds out what that really means, since he isn't reading interest rates.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Governor Waller https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20231128a.htmBill Ackman interview previewhttps://www.bloomberg.com/peer-to-peerhttps://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231129223/why-bill-ackman-thinks-the-economy-will-need-a-fed-rate-cut-very-early-in-2024Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity #lending #credit #europe Banks all over the world are preparing for...something. In addition to hoarding liquidity, they're also derisking and back to hedging again. We see those among US banks and the financial system as well as in Europe where lending has especially suffered for defensive liquidity measures. Quite simply, if the world was heading for a soft landing and where banks are just fine, we wouldn't find any of these symptoms let alone all of them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
In this episode I will be discussing 'Deflation For Dummies' - explaining how deflation negatively impacts normal people's purchasing power and standard of living. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/freegamejohn/message
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #banking #liquidity Over the last several weeks there have been concerning developments across the global banking system. Overseas data point to serious enough trouble it is causing foreign official institutions to take evasive actions. But it isn't just offshore banks; data for domestic US banks shows correlated behavior. What's behind this sudden global liquidity hoarding?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan The balance is shifting more decisively, both in the global economy and official reaction to it. More central banks are now cutting rates than hiking them. This is an especially critical development since "monetary" authorities are typically among the last to recognize, admit, then act in response to serious weakness. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #europe #france #germany #japan Soft landing vs. hard landing isn't really hard. It all comes down to employment and the jobs market is merely the last stage in a discreet process. We have more and more information which more and more uniformly shows the world entering that last stage. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSPG US PMI US private sector employment falls for first time since June 2020 amidmuted demand conditionshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b72b9c19b3bd48e78027009aad143044HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI Employment falls for first time in almost three years as eurozonedownturn continueshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/20d35936ba1e4c8cac284d0a18afceefHCOB Flash France PMI French economy endures another steep contraction midway throughfourth quarterhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/73b931ce1dba4f068655878ca9a40625HCOB Flash Germany PMI Downturn in German economy eases in Novemberhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4b17e45241094fa3b97a9f55e81b7e74au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI Private sector activity stalls in Novemberhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/93d3415079964b6c898c8e0718d0ed51Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Die Inflation hat viele Dinge teurer gemacht, das haben wir wahrscheinlich alle spätestens beim Einkaufen im Supermarkt gemerkt. Doch Inflation ist nicht gleich Inflation – und ein bisschen Inflation ist auch nichts Schlechtes. In dieser Folge gehen Mona und Jule alles durch, was du über Inflation wissen musst, wie die Inflationsrate berechnet und was an diesen Berechnungen kritisiert wird. Außerdem klären sie, welchen Einfluss das "Gelddrucken" der EZB auf die Inflation hat und ob man als verschuldete Person tatsächlich von der Inflation profitieren kann. ➡️ Zur LINKBOX (Links zu unseren Produkten und Werbepartnern): https://www.finanzfluss.de/podcast-linkbox/ ℹ️ Weitere Infos zur Folge: So kannst du Inflation vermeiden: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdLJ4pjJBhw Stimmt die Inflationsrate? https://www.finanzfluss.de/blog/stimmt-die-inflationsrate/ Kann man Schulden weginflationieren?: https://www.finanzfluss.de/blog/schulden-inflation/ Mehr Sicherheit im Depot: 7 Methoden im Check: https://www.finanzfluss.de/podcast/#folge-405/ Preismonitor: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Konjunkturindikatoren/Preismonitor/Preismonitor.html#246946 Preiskaleidoskop: https://service.destatis.de/Voronoi/PreisKaleidoskop.svg Persönliche Inflationsrate berechnen: https://service.destatis.de/inflationsrechner/index.html Der Marktgeflüster-Podcast mit Holger und Thomas: https://www.finanzfluss.de/marktgefluester-podcast/
US consumers are gearing up for the most important celebration on the national calendar; Black Friday sales. Increasing consumer awareness of profit-led inflation may shift focus from flashy headline discount numbers to the question “is this price lower than it was a year ago?”. Deflation of durable goods means that for big ticket items the answer is probably “yes”.
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #oil #gasoline Even OPEC is having trouble dealing with the growing turmoil in the oil market. Weak demand is forcing the cartel to confront very difficult choices. The reason is because recent price weakness isn't really just about energy. A whole range of financial indications are pointing once more in that wrong if familiar direction.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: OPEC+ Meeting Delayed as Oil Production Talks Hit Turbulencehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-22/opec-talks-hit-turbulence-as-saudis-agitate-over-output-levelsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Ben and Tom discuss NVDA earnings and the readthrough for AI, Deere earnings and the deflationary pressures they are seeing, a “swinging pendulum” of inflation and growth, and the Fed's potential response to all these inputs. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure
In an in-depth new report, DICK BOVE sees the makings of a US housing bust. The latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows the pace of home sales plunged to its lowest level in more than 13 years in October, with an uptick in the median home prices. High mortgage rates are cited for the tightening conditions, falling home sales and reduced inventory. BOVE looks beyond the latest malaise. Housing unit growth now exceeds the growth in the US population, he says. Moreover, the money supply that funded growth is now declining. "I think we're headed for a peak in housing activity," according to BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "You'll see a decline in housing activity; you'll see a decline in production, housing prices are going to come down. There's going to be loan losses." Meanwhile, the pace of inflation is slowing with a range of commodity prices in sharp decline. Some retailers see a period of deflation. US government data shows, nonetheless, steady if not strong consumer purchasing activity. Consumers are enjoying the "wealth effect" of a rising stock market, with growing home equity fuelling a feel good spending climate, according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. BOVE also discusses developments in the bank sector, from layoffs at Citi to the constraints of new banking regulations. Joining the CONVERSATIONS is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com
Rudy Havenstein is a senior market commentator and former Reichsbank President who currently runs a Twitter parody account where he documents what's going on in the world of finance and educates people on related topics. He is inspired by the similarity between the issues of his time and the issues of today, such as inflation, and hopes to warn people about the dangers of fiat money. Havenstein believes that this generation is like a group of grandparents taking the whole family out to dinner and skipping out on the bill. He quotes Thomas Paine, who said, "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my children may have peace," to emphasize the need to address and resolve issues now for the sake of future generations. Havenstein discusses the difficulty of having civil discussions about polarizing topics, as people tend to become overly emotional and divided over even small issues. He calls for logical and calm discussions and warns against the influence of cable news and clickbait in pushing people to extreme viewpoints. He criticizes the current administration for picking the wrong people for positions, regardless of party affiliation, and emphasizes the importance of being aware of tribal emotions and discussing issues in a meaningful way. Havenstein also comments on the role of the media and individual responsibility in understanding and disseminating accurate information. He believes that objective and hard-hitting journalism is necessary to get an accurate picture of what is happening, particularly regarding the activities of the Federal Reserve. He discusses how quantitative easing (QE) and low interest rates benefit asset owners and the wealthy while leaving the average person vulnerable to price volatility. He expresses concern about the decline of the middle class into poverty and the reckless spending of the government. Havenstein believes that the Federal Reserve has an abysmal track record as a big bank regulator and blames Congress for not thinking about the long-term consequences of their actions. He also expresses concern about the potential for deflation and the unchecked money printing power of the Federal Reserve. He touches on the issue of wealth inequality and how quantitative easing has exacerbated this problem. He mentions various experts who have commented on this topic and believes that the government's priority has been to bail out the stock market and benefit the rich. Havenstein concludes by discussing gold as a potential hedge against instability and the trend of Indians, Russians, and Chinese buying gold to protect against local currency instability. He also discusses his own experiences with investing and offers advice on taking risks and not investing essential funds. Talking Points From This Episode Internet discourse has become very divisive, and it's important to permit disagreement while remaining civil. The Federal Reserve should be a target of criticism, but the public is often kept from getting an accurate picture of their activity. The American people must acknowledge the problems of the Federal Reserve and hold them accountable in order to reclaim their power and financial freedoms. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:31 - Rudy's Staid Pedigree4:14 - History & Polarization7:45 - Nuance & Verbal Skirmishes8:25 - Online Discourse & Wars12:34 - Janet Yellen's Bubble16:31 - Inflation & Real Costs19:46 - Manipulating the Verbage21:20 - Absurd Financial Angles25:30 - Central Bank 'Purpose'30:50 - Deflation & The Fed34:32 - Leverage & Bond Auctions36:39 - No Fiscal Restraints38:41 - Gold as Insurance40:28 - Gold & Argentina41:50 - Gold Equities & Volatility45:19 - Picking Tops/Bottoms47:38 - Infinite Money & Defaults49:22 - CPI Vs. Cost of Living53:00 - Elections & Vapid Politicans57:24 - WEF & Global Malignancy1:00:43 - Other Secret Clubs1:01:13 - Reasons for Hope1:06:05 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #japan #collateral Bond market is getting wild. Big moves in a lot places included several many aren't paying close enough attention to. The previous selloff in LT USTs has kept focus on that one segment in this single market. Not only are there crucial warnings in the other UST curve spot, other curves are making an even bigger splash here, some you may not immediately think of. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Bonds' Best Month Since March Faces ‘Sanity Check' in Auctionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-19/bonds-best-month-since-march-faces-sanity-check-in-auctionBloomberg: Booming Bond Rally Likely to Continue After Strong $16 Billion Debt Auctionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-20/treasury-rally-faces-test-in-pre-holiday-20-year-bond-auctionTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Learn which prices are slowing down—or even dropping—as a result of deflation, including your Thanksgiving feast. Before focusing on price deflation, hosts Sean Pyles and Anna Helhoski explore recent financial updates, including the rising income among first-time homebuyers, the United Autoworkers Union (UAW) ratifying new contracts with the Big Three automakers, and Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales trends. Then, Sean and Anna explain what's happening behind recent price deflation. They highlight significant price drops across various goods and services, including eggs, smartphones, health insurance, gas, and Thanksgiving dinner essentials. They also break down the significance of these price reductions amid ongoing inflationary pressures, potentially offering a glimpse of relief for consumers in specific sectors. In their conversation, the Nerds discuss: homebuyer demographics, rising incomes, housing market shifts, UAW contracts, Black Friday sales, Cyber Monday sales, philanthropic gestures, deflation insights, price drop analysis, consumer trends, Thanksgiving food prices, holiday deals, charitable legacies, inflation impact, and deflation. To send the Nerds your money questions, call or text the Nerd hotline at 901-730-6373 or email firstname.lastname@example.org. Like what you hear? Please leave us a review and tell a friend.
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis Any amateur (like me) with a passing interest in economics knows the story: the Fed controls the economy by raising or lowering interest rates. Those then affect the banking system's credit impulse which either adds to or takes away from the general economy depending on what CBers wish to accomplish. Of course, almost none of that is true. How did it get to be this way? Answering that question reveals a lot more than you might think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Monetary Policy Decisions October 26, 2023https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp231026~6028cea576.en.htmlBundesbank TPIhttps://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/monetary-policy/outright-transactions/transmission-protection-instrument-tpi--896158FOMC Transcript August 1, 2011https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomc20110801confcall.pdfMilton Friedman: A Program for Monetary Stability (1960)https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/objects/57536/a-program-for-monetary-stabilityFOMC Transcript June 27-28, 2000https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20000628meeting.pdfRBI Michael Debabrata Patra: Lost in Transmission? Financial Markets and Monetary Policyhttps://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=1338BOE Catherine Mann: Expectations, lags, and the transmission of monetary policyhttps://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2023/february/expectations-lags-and-the-transmission-of-monetary-policy-speech-by-catherine-l-mann.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #oil #gasoline #cisco #walmart From Cisco to Walmart, bonds to oil. Don't call it a comeback, deflation has been here the whole time. Most just forgot about it or were distracted by the combined summertime of soft landing and oil prices. The downside of the disinflation rebound and the weakness it is revealing have brought all the bad deflationary feelings back up to the surface. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Tune in to today's episode of "Retail Daily Minute" for a quick roundup of the top headlines in the retail world. Learn how Amazon and Hyundai are reshaping the automotive customer experience, how Albertsons is using AI to reduce food waste, why Walmart's CEO is concerned about deflation, and how Walgreens is optimizing its stores for online order delivery. Plus, get insights into Amazon's return-to-office policy and its impact on corporate employees. Stay informed with key retail updates!
Wie sollen Anleger mit der Deflations-Warnung umgehen, mit der die Wall Street diesmal ins Wochenende gegangen ist? Walmart-CEO Doug McMillon hat im Earnings Call darauf verwiesen, dass in den nächsten Wochen und Monaten mit Preissenkungen zu rechnen sei, die gefährlich werden könnten. Anschließend ein Blick ins Portfolio von Investoren-Legende Warren Buffett. Er hat bei Berkshire Hathaway umgebaut und einige der Neuerungen sind auch für Anleger mit schmalem Budget spannend. Im Dax-Update steht diesmal Infineon im Mittelpunkt. Deutschlands wichtigster Halbleiterhersteller hat mit der neuen Quartalsbilanz für eine aufregende Woche hierzulande gesorgt. Deshalb ein genauer Blick auf die Zahlen und den Ausblick, inklusive Antwort auf die Frage: Ist die Aktie einen Kauf wert? In der Community Corner werden wieder Fragen aus den Reihen der Hörerinnen und Hörer beantwortet. Diesmal geht es um die sichere Aufbewahrung von bereits gekauften Kryptowährungen. Und schlussendlich noch ein schneller Blick auf die neue Handelswoche. Es stehen einige Termine mit Impulspotenzial an. Die komplette Ausgabe ist Teil der Pioneer-Membership. Wer noch nicht an Bord ist, kann unser gesamtes Portfolio zunächst testen, dafür gibt es hier ein spezielles Angebot: https://www.thepioneer.de/willkommen
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy The mainstream emphasis on Treasury auctions is, like so many of these things, completely misplaced. It's not just misplaced, even the worst Treasury auctions don't actually matter. Interest rates have nothing to do with how much debt the government issues. It's sad, it's not right, but that's the eurodollar world we live in. Uncle Sam has issued almost $20 trillion in debt over the last dozen years, and the long bond yield has barely moved - even with the Fed spiking ST rates.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC statement May 9, 2010https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20100509a.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #walmart Walmart makes a major warning. Jobless claims spike. Oil (and gas) prices aren't just crashing, the whole WTI curve just get whacked. All three of those are different angles on the same thing. What's driving bids for bonds. The deflationary recession wasn't avoided, merely delayed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC: Walmart shares slide as retailer gives a cautious outlook about consumer spendinghttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/walmart-wmt-earnings-q3-2024-.htmlBloomberg: Walmart Sinks on Cautious Consumer Outlook, Late-October Diphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/walmart-lifts-profit-outlook-stays-cautious-on-us-consumersAAA US average retail gasoline pricehttps://gasprices.aaa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Join Car and Keyan to discuss Stacker News' top posts of the week, Car & Keyan's favorite posts of the week, and top stackers. For the week of Nov 17th, 2023.TimeStamps:02:53 - Now I Get It06:53 - You Shouldn't DCA Bitcoin09:52 - Broken Money book club, part 414:44 - Taking a sabbatical from Bitcoin FOSS19:22 - It's Deflation, Not Inflation - via The Sovereign Individual26:03 - The Beatles “Now And Then” AI Breakdown22:36 - Cascdr project30:30 - bitcoin++ Austin Early Ticket Sale Ends Nov 1831:17 - Robin Linus AMA32:15 - AMA - Building a "Bitcoin AI"34:28 - Reddit is Dead...Long Live Stacker News36:53 - SN release: 10 sat post fee, better search, QR scan, date ranges, bolt11 remova38:25 - Stacker News ChangeLogshoutout https://stacker.news/Wumbo for the time stamps Stacker News Live WebsiteThriller Bitcoin SN NewsletterPlease find us on YouTube & BitcoinTVWe love the Fountain app for Lightning 2.0 podcastingSend us a Boost, and we will read it on the next SNLFind Car on NostrFollow Car on SNLearn more about PlebLabFollow Keyan on TwitterFind Keyan on NostrFollow Keyan on SNLearn more about Stacker News
Here's what is happening in the markets today, Friday, November 17th - Dow snaps 4-day win streak, S&P and Nasdaq higher - Stocks are on track for a winning week - Deflation? - Walmart (WMT) CEO see lower prices in some general merchandise and key grocery items - Gap (GPS) almost 20% higher after better-than-expected results for the third quarter - Ross Stores (ROST) higher after better than expected earnings - ChargePoint (CHPT) drops after cutting its forecast - Oil is down for a 4th week in a row PLUS: How we trade these markets and our current positions This wraps up today's stock market news. If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast. And for more stock market news, visit our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/rockwelltrading2008 #todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket
The Bullish Set-up Remains. A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats. Economic Slowdown & "Whiff of Deflation". Tune in to today's podcast to see what the markets are telling us today based on the VRA Investing System, and more importantly what we see looking forward for investors. 31 minutes.
JT/Sainz Win Netflix Cup! Rory Resigns From PGA Tour Policy Board! TGL Dome Deflates?Rory Deep Dive! DPWT Championship Preview! RSM Preview! Will Tiger Play at Augusta? MUCH MORE!!!Listen, Rate, FOLLOW!!!!!! @The73rdHole on X!
Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist, says the nearly two-year high in US continuing jobless claims represents a needed softening in the labor market. Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says there needs to be significant changes to the treasury market in order to restore strength. Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Senior Retail Analyst, says Walmart, Target and Burberry's earnings indicate pressure on the entire retail sector. Michael Hirson, 22V Head of China Research, analyzes President Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping and its implications for both countries. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Joining us now, we're thrilled to every usually for big events, So today's a big event. It's always a big event. When Ellen Zenner joins his chief US economist, Morgan Stanley Ellen on claims, I go to the four week moving average. How do you interpret claims with this two hundred thirty one thousand statistic? And can you say there's finally a vector in place of higher claims more pain. So I hope that there's a higher vector in place. I disagree that higher claims will be more pain. We're coming off of extraordinarily low levels. As you said, we look at the four week moving average to smooth through volatility, and it has been lifting, but it is still very low. And so what does that tell me? Something that Mike and Lisa alluded to as well, normalization slowing in normalization, good god man, that's what we've been needing, and I don't see this accelerating at an extreme pace. I've been on the road the last few days in several states meeting with corporate clients. They are finally seeing some relief in terms of how tight the labor market has been in terms of the availability of the kinds of employees that they need. We're seeing not just claims rising a bit here, but I focus on continuing claims. People that have been losing their jobs are staying unemployed for a bit longer, and that's been rising since October, so it's getting more difficult to just get re employed right away. This is the kind of softness in the labor market that we have needed, and of course it takes pressure off the FED to raise rates again. Right going on extended hold, what is the distance between normalization and an outright downturn? So well, the difference is jobs stay positive, So normalization is you've got more supply coming back into the labor market, so you see participation rates rising, which we have. That is what puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. And we've been seeing that, and if people are having taken longer to be able to get re employed, then that should produce further upward pressure on the unemployment rate. But that just takes pressure off the labor market, pressure off of businesses, off of margins. You see wages grow more slowly, and you'll see confidence build among FED policy makers that they have done enough here. I don't think we're anywhere near getting to negative job gains. I think negative jobs would mean that companies have stopped hiring. What I hear is that they're doing selective hiring, that they stop hiring, and that they start firing, and I mean firing up broadly. And that's just not what we're seeing. But I'm ever watchful, especially reading earnings transcripts, to see if that's something that's around the around the corner. I'm glad you mentioned earnings because we were talking about Walmart, and I understand their idiosyncrasies here, but they talked about potentially seeing outright deflation over the next year with consumers clearly pushing back. You do see margin pressure, you do see a market deterioration and consumer appetite over the past ninety days. How concerning is that to you about the nonlinearity of where things could be. So, Lisa, we put out a consumer survey that goes out into the field every two weeks, and one of the biggest areas of trade down that households have been doing is within stores themselves, say, going from a high priced branded good to the generic good within the store. And that means that those retailers are going to see some deflation. And we've been hearing from businesses that input costs are falling, but prices that they're charged or falling faster. And that's important because we all started to think we the economics community at large, not myself though an exception, started to think that households just have unlimited price tolerance, and that is not the case. Finances start to slow, we run through that excess savings, and you will start to trade down. The lower income groups that Walmart serves are the groups that have been standing the greatest pressure. Look at delinquency rates for the lowest income groups on credit cards on auto loans, that points to stress. Ellen Molly Smith and Alice Atkins for Bloomberg made a big splash the other day using your research, the Morgan Stanley View and the key distinction is a four point three percent unemployment rate. I hereby dubb at the Zentner four point three percent statistic. How do we get to a four point three percent unemployment rate that radically shifts Fed policy? I'm not expecting right close them from the Fed. The unemployment rate at four point three percent, we think is a soft landing unemployment rate in that it is driven by slower job gains and higher labor force participation. Now I understand that is a beautiful scenario for the FED. And we have them cutting next year by one hundred basis points because of normalization. That's very different than cutting because the FED thinks there's a recession. If the FED thinks that there's recession, they're starting big and they're doing a lot, and that's very different than the normalization scenario. And then overlay with that, what we're hearing Julia Coronatto leading the way on this, doctor Coronado suggesting productivity is underestimated. Do you believe that we have an underestimation of the efficiency of the American economy and that gets you to a benevolent four point three percent unemployment rate? Yees, So I do think that productivity is being underestimated. I would add, though, that productivity has not been well estimated, and so you'd have to say, well, it's being estimated you worse than before. And I'm not sure we can say that, but I think there are a lot of new ways that productivity exhibits itself in the economy that we're just not able to capture. Government data is not able to capture. But absolutely, if productivity is higher, then you can withstand higher wage growth without it being inflationary. It gives the FED more runway because it keeps it lid on inflation. And so it's really it lifts all boats. It's productivity and infrastructure or what economists go to sleep at night dreaming about, Tom, which is the reason why I think people are sort of hopeful that we're going to get that and we're going to create this soft landing and avoid something more challenging. I guess to wrap it all up, we've been talking all morning about the potential for deflation. Tom was talking about how difficult that is for any economy to handle. This was the word that Walmart used. But you're talking about normallyation. How concerned would you be to see some sort of material deflation, not disinflation. Deflation, and certain good sectors that we have been seeing on the margins over the past couple of months. Yeah, so, Lisa, good sectors. I'm not worried about it at all. We've goods prices in the US have been in deflation for a decade leading up to COVID. That's normal, right, we were importing a lot of deflation, but that's externally determined. I would be very, very concerned about a deflation scenario in the US for services, for domestically determined prices. For US to get to that broadly, you're talking about an extraordinary downturn on the magnitude of the financial crisis in two thousand and eight that would get that kind of price declines, declines in the level of prices instead. I think deceleration is in train. I think it's going to be faster than the FED is expecting. And I think I've been really pleased, and I think they should be pleased too with the progress that we see. The Newtonian mechanics of Ellen Zentner, of Morgan Stanley there and the dynamics of price change. Ellen, thank you so much for the brief. William Dudley joins us now former New York Fed president of Bloomberg opinion columnist Bill Ewan, I'm going to suggest Professor williams now holding Court in the former Dudley chair, have a unique perspective on our flows, our liquidity, our trust Sitting at the New York Fed. What is the confidence or trust deterioration you've observed. I think there is a complete trust in the New York Fed because that the Fed basically understands the plumbing of the financial system and understands what needs to be done to make sure that plumbing works always, even under times is pressed. One area of vulnerability where the Fed and the treasure you're looking at right now is the treasure market itself, because the buying of treasury borrowing has gone up dramatically and the capacity of the primary dealers to take on that uh that burden has diminished because of all the regulation on capital and leverage. So there do need to be some significant changes, I think, to the treasury market to make it more strong and resilient. And what I propose is a couple of things. One central characteringum of treasuries, so they all go through a central current party, so your risk is just to the central current party. Allows you to net out a lot of bilateral risk to a single risk to one uh end person. Second, increase the leverage the haircuts a bit so that they don't need to be increased during time to stress. Right now, you have low haircuts, and then there's there's stress, and the haircuts go up, which force people to sell. And the last thing which Mike was talking about is opening up the fens repo facility more broadly, making it so that people can take treasures and turn them into cash at any time. And if they know that, then they don't actually have to sell the treasures, you know, in anticipation of a problem. They can wait to see if they actually need the care bill if none of that gets done. Do you think the action we've seen and what you expect compromises the QT program coming out of the FED. No, I don't think so. I mean, I think the QT program basically is on autopilot as long as there isn't a lot of market disruptions. So if the market performs reasonably well, then QT keeps going. Only if we have the kind of events like we had in September twenty nineteen or market twenty twenty, we can see QT is suspended because if the market isn't working right, the last thing the Fed wants to do is done more securities in the marketplace. What's as take here, Bill, If there isn't this sort of fix that you propose or this three pronged proposal, how much are we seeing what sort of the new normal looks like with bouncing around twenty basis points on a ten year yield from day to day versus something more significant that creates a real crisis in the world's deepest and most liquid market. I think the volatility we've seen this year is not a treasure market function problem. I think the volatility we've seen this year is people trying to figure out what what's the trajectory of short term rates over the next six to twelve months, and there's been lots of changes in view as the economic data has come out. I think the problem is more when all sudden people want it dump treasuries and there's not enough capacity on their side to absorb that. That has happened a few times, and obviously it needs it needs a catalyst, and it's hard to predict what that catalyst could be, But what I want is a treasury market that can handle those kind of shocks if and when they occur. Are you saying that right now there is an inability. What do you expect will happen if there is some sort of catalyst, Well, if there's sometimes are cast One of the problems we allowed the treasury trading is handled by algorithmic traders who basically don't really provide long term liquity to the market. They just provide liquidity for a microsecond and then they move it security off to someone else, and when things get scary, they completely withdraw from the market, and then the market is really now then has to go to the primary dealer community. But the primary dealer commun has an allocated capital to this business because most of the time they're actually not doing it, so there's no one there sort of an extremist provide balance sheet capacity to sort of come the market. And that's one reason why you'd like to have the ability to take your treasury security to the FED and turn them into cash without actually having to sell them. So the Treasury is only one the FED is the only one that has a balance sheet that is actually elastic, So why not make it clear that that elastic balance sheet available on an ex anti basis as opposed to only exposts after the vice she had the problem? Bill, how does our data dependency look next year? I think we've had a celebration of disinflation in place. Is the nature or character of the Fed's data dependency different now and forward? Well, I think they're more confident that they've moved monetary policy to a restrictive level and it's actually working to bring down inflation. But we still don't know a lot of things. We don't really know if how tight monetary policy is. We don't know how long it's going to take to get inflation down to two percent. So I think the degree of uncertainty risk is a lot less less today than it was, say, eighteen months ago, when the Fed started the tightening process. But there's still a lot of uncertainty about how strong the economics can being, whether the Fed is done. What a roller coaster write this bond market has been on over the last few months, Bell, what if for? To catch up with you? SA always is former New York Fed President Bill Dutley. There an interesting thought provoking piece from Bill on the future of this treasury market. We talked to a lot of experts on this, and this is what you get if you get a double degree at the you claimed holy Cross, the College of the Holy Cross, and economics in accounting, the hyper detail, mathematics, ratios, the financial analysis of retail that Chuck Rahm has acclaimed for. He's a Gordon Haskett. I'm not going to mince words. We protect the copyright of all of our guests. Get his brilliance from Gordon A Hausket. How do you go and outperform on Walmart with a thirty pe? Explain why Walmart has a pe like a luxury goods pervader. And Walmart's been executing lawlessly for several quarters and even maybe the past couple of years, and the business mixshift and the gross market visibility. I mean, there's never been a time in the twenty years I've covered Walmart where I've been this bullish on the long term outlook. Clearly today it's interesting. It's a little bit about positioning. You guys talked in your remarks about valuation. That's a factor if you really dig it underneath the covers here, it's really less about the top line. And I think less about the back half of October commentary that the CFO recently made. I think it's more about the margin flow through that was disappointing. The US margins were disappointing. So when you have a stock at an all time high, at very rich valuations and you get a little bit but disconnect, you get this negative reaction. I think the stock will come back throughout the day and over the next couple of weeks, but today could be difficult for the stock. Can they compete with Amazon or Darra I never said this before, Chuck Grum, But can they beat Amazon? I don't know if they can beat Amazon, but they can definitely compete. And I think the physical assets of their four thousand plus stores in the country really provide them with being really close and being able to connect with their customers. So Walmart plus there's a lot of opportunity there. So can they beat Probably not, but can they compete one hundred percent? Chuck, you said that margins disappointed, and that's really interesting At a time where people are wondering when are consumers is going to start pushing back on price increases? Is this an indication that Walmart is seeing that that time is now and then order for them to compete, they've got to take a hit on the margins. Well, I think almost uniformly, you know, consumers are pushing back on price and that's why prices are coming down almost across the board. And can we cover Home Depot, we cover TJ, we cover you know Hard, you know, Macy's, Walmart, They're all talking about prices starting to flatten out and retreat. I think the US margins were softer because of the GLP influence on the on the margins because of the drug. It's a lower margin product. It was a higher sales in here in the quarter. And when you have discretionary sales be softer, those are higher margin categories for Walmart. So it's really a mixed factor. It looks like obviously the calls at eight o'clock and the callbacks are later in the day, so we'll get more clarity later in the day. But looking at what it looks like now, I think it's more of a mixed factor. You know, we were talking earlier about what's good news or bad news for the broader economy. When Walmart does headly or well in terms of which consumers are shopping, there is there any read through based on the earnings that we've gotten from retailers about whether we're seeing a division between haves and have nots, about whether we are seeing any broader trends in terms of how the consumer is evolving, Which areas are going to be bright spots and which won't. That's a great question. I think it's really too early to tell. I mean, you look at Walmart's numbers, they're up, you know, comp up five, Target yesterday down five. You know, you look at Macy's down six or seven. Here, it looks pretty uniform. I think there's pressures across the board. It's not really like the high end doing well. You guys talked about Berbery earlier. We'll get more color from Nordstrom next week. I think it's pretty uniform across the board. And you know, we've been talking about our consumer surveys being weak, traffic being weak. Today's numbers and the reactions here over the past forty eight hours have really nothing to do with the top line. The top line and the sales are pretty much in line with where people thought. It's a positioning and it's the margin flow throughs for certain companies. What's the future of Nordstrom's the family dynamic and also the attempt to be luxury. I guess what I is an amateur, I'd say is accessible luxury. Is nord Strum a sleeper for five years out? I think it's a great concept. I think the rack has really been their achilles heel over the past several years. So if they could get the rack fix. I think the fact that they all have a huge presence of full line stores across the country is actually a tremendous asset piece of v Coals or Macy's, which have got hundreds of stores. So I think it's I think it's a viable concept. They need to get the rack fixed, and that's what people and investors have been waiting for. Chuck, what's the rack? It's a ro off price division. And what do you mean by fixed? What's wrong with it? Well, when you look at you know, you look at TJ and Ross comping up, you know, load of mid single digits, and you see the rack comping down. It's just it's been broken. I mean it's their business hasn't been good. It seems like there's been some cannibalization across the store base. We're not exactly. Sure, there's been some merchandise issues. They've tried to price up when when the consumer wanted to be priced down. But yeah, the North From viable for sure. But the rack division, the off price division, I'm sorry, we're not clarifying earlier. Is really the No, It's okay now, I know, I'm just just for people who are trying to follow. Have you noticed, Chuck that the off rack the rack is actually close to the Nord from stores. Have you noticed that, which is kind of odd. Yeah, I mean I could tell you my wife, We'll tend to go to the rack now a lot more than a bowl line. So that's what I'm talking about. The cannibalization factor of that is probably maybe the issue here, and maybe they need to close more rack stores, but you know, ironically, they're trying to grow more right now. So we're old rated, we're kind of we're kind of perplexed on some of the strategies there. For the time being, it's trying to be TJX and knowst them at the same time with the same grand it's hot to do, Chuck, Thank you, Chuck Goldenske, thank you mate. Right now and these important meets we're making jokes about it. Come on, this is important. Michael Hurston joins and I had a China research a twenty two v AT research. Michael, thank you so much for briefing us this morning. What did you What was the unexpected that you saw last night? Besides a dictator faux pap by the president late? What was the unexpected of the meeting? Nothing too unexpected, frank, which I think is good. Maybe the Chinese readout perhaps was a bit more positive than I was expecting, and that really reflects what has been a bit of a excuse me, a recalibration in China's official tone towards the US over the last few weeks. But other than that, I would say, no big surprises, Okay, no big surprise is great. What's next? When's the next meeting? Is the President travel to China to make it too well? I think that's actually a really important point, Tom, because this is basically the last high profile meeting that the two leaders are going to have before the next US presidential election. So this kind of sets the parameters for the next year, and those parameters really are trying to find stability, not allowing a crisis to take place over something like Timewan and then just making incremental progress on some of the key issues in the relationship. But if you think about it, the closer we got to the US presidential election, the harder it will be for Biden to do anything that's seen as being soft on China. And of course, why would chi Jinpang make concessions to the US when he doesn't know who the next president will be. So I think that's where we are. That's why this was kind of an important window for the two leaders to meet. Did the dictator comment mean anything to you? Not really. I don't want to dismiss it entirely. I think it probably was perhaps not the positive tone to go out on, But I think in the grand scheme, given how much work both sides did to try to make this meeting happen, I don't think it's going to color too much on the Chinese side. What did you make of the meetings that Xijimpang had with US executives apples, Tim Cook for example, a whole host of others, and then a private meeting with Elon Musk. What's your takeaway of how different the business view on China is from the US government's view on that country. I think there are a few very prominent US firms that have this special position in China where and that would put Apple and Tesla very much as the two bell Weathers in that category. They have managed this straddle between the US and China. It's not an easy straddle on either side, but they're kind of a special category. If you look at the broader set of US firms in China, it's really a mix between those who feel like they have a decent market in China and those who are really upset about China's policies. And so I would put Tesla and Apple in this kind of special category, and so it's no surprise that they got some special attention from CHICHIPI do you have a sense of who needs who more? Of whether Tesla and Apple need China more than China needs them and the jobs that they provide. It's an interesting question. I would say for the companies they need app they need China more. But if we're talking about Apple and Tesla, they are very important bell Weathers for how the business community looks at the playing field in China, and not just the US business community, that's Europeans, Japanese, you know, global companies in China, which is why I think Beijing actually has to tread very carefully with things like, for example, potential retaliation against Apple. So yeah, the companies need China work, but these are quite important that Chi Jinping looks to try to revive confidence in China's economy and China's investment environment. Michael, A question we haven't brought up yet. I've been remiss on this is Hong Kong. Is Hong Kong going to evolve into something that we don't see right now? Is there a Hearson Hong Kong out there that's going to be different. I think Hong Kong, really, and I was just there last week, is in this somewhat gradual transition from a global hub to really more of a pure capital gateway to China and is increasing becoming more of a Chinese city. That is still an interesting position for it to play. And a number of China watchers that I've had discussions with recently have made the point that they think Hong Kong is going to remain an interesting city as the political environment in China states very tight and in some cases even titans further so, Hong Kong losing its status as a global financial center, but still quite an important city in the context of in particular context of China. So what's the alternative for those people whining and dining with mister g last night. What city do they go to? I think if we're talking about the financial sector, you know, it's a number of places. Singapore obviously has has gained a step, even Tokyo has become more important as a regional financial center. If we're talking about the multinationals there, you know, it's wherever they can get capacity and wherever they can get the logistics right. So in many cases is you know, you mentioned Vietnam earlier, Vietnam, Fishary, but it's also Mexico. It's a lot of countries. Michael, we got to leave you that. Thanks for Aminus, Michael Hesson that have twenty two vave research. Thank you very much. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Easter. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #retail #china #europe Bond yields dropping again. Oil curve back in contango. Is the economy resilient? Worrisome data from around the world and right where it hurts - consumers. US. China. Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: China's Mixed Economic Data Adds to Case for More Stimulushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/china-s-economic-activity-mixed-as-beijing-steps-up-supportTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #cpi Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer price estimates weren't shocking or even much of a surprise, instead they confirmed a lot about economic risks as well as what has been happening in bonds of late. The selloff isn't just over; it was never what everyone said it was. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: The Rapid Bond Rally Is Looking Fragilehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/rapid-bond-rally-is-looking-fragile-as-fed-supply-expose-cracksTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#Bitcoin #Deflation #Technology #Abundance John Haar - Managing Director of Private Client Services at Swan Bitcoin - joins me in this episode to talk about: - his observations within his previous position at the legacy -fiat financial complex at Goldman Sachs & the perception of #Bitcoin - Fixed Supply Money, the immutability of Bitcoin's absolute scarcity, & why Bitcoin is the only ethical monetary system - Deflation, Abundance, human & technological evolution rooted in Bitcoin and many other interesting topics. Follow John Haar on Twitter / X & LinkedIn: https://twitter.com/john_at_swan https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-haar-971b1444/ Read John Haar's articles: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/how-legacy-finance-perceives-bitcoin/ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/why-a-fixed-supply-money-does-not-lead-to-economic-catastrophe/ If you loved this episode, share it with your friends & family! Thanks for your support! Bitcoin-Podcast: https://anchor.fm/keyvandavani Other Podcast-Platforms you can listen to my show: Apple Podcast: https://apple.co/2IA2dhV Google Podcast: https://bit.ly/31rSymq Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2wOfq1k Breaker: https://bit.ly/2IzhiQO Overcast: https://bit.ly/2R4nnbJ Pocket-Casts: https://bit.ly/2XElbKv Radio Public: https://bit.ly/2I86iuH E-mail: email@example.com. Buy easily Azteco's Bitcoin-Vouchers on telegram and redeem with any popular mobile Bitcoin & Lightning-Wallet: https://t.me/BitcoinVoucherBot?start=... Recommended Hardware-Wallets: Coldcard: https://bit.ly/3f6Vgq4 (use discount code DAVANI) --- Bitbox02: https://bit.ly/3iluknN (use discount code DAVANI) --- Keystone: https://bit.ly/3xyJlbx (use discount code DAVANI) --- Back up your Bitcoin Seeds with Cryptotag: https://bit.ly/3fqjgnb --- twitter: @keyvandavani linkedIn: /keyvandavani telegram: @keyvandavani instagram: /keyvandavani medium.com/@keyvandavani davani.substack.com/ Telegram: t.me/keyvandavani Support my independent educational work with Bitcoin. ---- PayNym-ID (Samourai Wallet): +summerhall1f2 --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/keyvandavani/message
Inflation eased in October with consumer prices up 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday November 14. That's a smaller annual increase in the consumer price index (CPI) than the month before when inflation came in at 3.7%. Inflation was flat on a monthly basis. "The markets have taken off like a rocket today under the assumption that inflation has been beaten," said DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. The Fed, which embarked on an aggressive interest rate hike campaign, is credited for the sharp fall in inflation from its peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022. "The Fed is now in a very strong place," says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, BOVE is out with a comprehensive new report on the unprecedented rise in the net worth of American households and non-profit institutions. "Americans are filthy rich. Thousands are becoming millionaires every year," he says. Still, VAN ALSTYNE says as many as 40 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, reminds us of the Gini index, or Gini co-efficient of income inequality, frequently referenced by BOVE and VAN ALSTYNE, which paints a dark picture of America's income distribution. Meanwhile, there's inflation and then deflation. Inflation is finally emerging in Japan after years of falling prices. China, on the other hand, is battling deflationary pressures. China has many challenges to overcome in its economy, according to BOVE. Questions & Comments: firstname.lastname@example.org
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last week suddenly they're all hawks again. What changed? It wasn't the economy nor the economic data derived from it. The Fed's entire worldview is exposed when markets diverge from policymakers' preferred path. From rate hikes to the Phillips Curve, there is no basis for what central bankers do...accept to manipulate public opinion.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChair Jerome H. Powell At "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy," a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231109a.htmNBER: IT'S BAAACK: THE SURGE IN INFLATION IN THE 2020S AND THE RETURNOF THE NON-LINEAR PHILLIPS CURVEhttps://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31197/w31197.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subscriptions offer, go here: https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptionsEurodollar University's guess conversations featuring Mike GreenTwitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #china #banks China's repo market nearly freezes up at the end of October and now this. Even the biggest institutions are taking unprecedented steps. On top of well-documented real estate woes, the most recent economic stats on the Chinese economy indicate right back into deflation. With that third failed reopening and only ongoing trouble for non-bank financial firms, the liquidity situation inside China is getting hot.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: China Banks Rush to Raise Funds After Cash Crunch Spooks Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/china-banks-rush-to-raise-funds-after-cash-crunch-spooks-marketBloomberg: PBOC Drains Liquidity in Signal It Sees Rate Surge as Temporaryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/china-s-central-bank-drains-liquidity-after-overnight-rate-surgeBloomberg: PBOC Seen Adding Liquidity After China Money Market Rates Surgehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/pboc-aims-to-add-liquidity-after-surge-in-money-market-ratesTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#China: #ScalaReport: Deflation in the PRC. CRE crash in USA & What is to be done? Chris Riegel, Scala.com. #Stratacache. https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/urban-revival-stalls-office-apartment-conversions-face-financial-fiasco 1940
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity Are interest rates going back up, or not? According to many Economists and central bankers (same thing), they believe so because a key metric they use has turned positive after years of being negative. Technically true, while it may be math it is hardly science. Their number is pure voodoo. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY: Treasury Term Premiahttps://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/overviewBloomberg: ‘Dark Matter' Bond Metric Mesmerizes Wall Street and Washingtonhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/-dark-matter-bond-metric-mesmerizes-wall-street-and-washingtonTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #oil #gasoline #europe #germany #crashOil market selloff is picking up taking gasoline prices along for the ride. The recession noises are getting louder and louder reminding us again there are no soft landings. It was pure coincidence, yet appropriate anyway Fed Chair Jay Powell addressed some his staff statisticians and cautioned them how often they are surprised by outcomes in the real economy. They should all consult their German counterparts given the alarming data coming out of that place and how much that helps explain oil and everything else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChair Jerome H. Powell Remarks November 8, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231108a.htmBloomberg: Scholz Tells Global Elite in Davos That German Economy Is Backhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/scholz-tells-global-elite-in-davos-that-german-economy-is-backBloomberg: Scholz's Advisers Slash Forecast for German Growth Next Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-08/scholz-s-advisers-slash-forecast-for-german-growth-next-yearTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity #oil #gasoline Oil and gasoline prices are falling fast. While that sounds like a good thing, it is anything but. The energy market is coming to grips with the renewed downturn and recession. Big moves for the WTI curve and global bonds. It's not September any longer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAAA US average retail gasoline priceshttps://gasprices.aaa.com/Bloomberg: Saudi, Russia Stick to Planned Oil Cuts Amid Mideast Tensionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-05/saudi-arabia-sticks-with-plan-for-oil-cuts-amid-mideast-tensionTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #liquidity Regulators are almost feuding with hedge fund "speculators" over something called a basis trade. The former alleges it is a huge systemic risk, and they are right though for the wrong reasons. In the latter group, supporters point out funds have become necessary balance sheet warehouses for Treasuries because of a key gap. Here we'll examine what that gap really is and why it actually matters to find out who is right (spoiler: both). Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Griffin Says Scrutiny of SEC Basis Trade ‘Utterly Beyond Me'https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-25/ken-griffin-says-sec-scrutiny-of-basis-trade-utterly-beyond-meOFR WP 2021-01: Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-FuturesDisconnecthttps://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-21-01-hedge-funds-and-the-treasury-cash-futures-disconnect.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve Blackrock official says stocks are in a really good place, not too Fed hot, not too economy cold. Total Goldilocks. Equity investors, however, tend to fall into these cyclical traps. It will just be weak enough to back of Jay Powell, but not too weak as to cause major damage. And if the landing does get too hard, that the Fed can always cut rates to save the day. A word of caution: the landings are always hard and the Fed never saves the day.Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg: Surveillance: Wall Street Enjoys a YOLO Moment After Goldilocks Jobs Reporthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-03/wall-street-traders-savor-yolo-moment-after-goldilocks-jobs-reportTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #fed #federalreserve The last thing standing in the way of full-blown recession in the US was the jobs market. Was. October payroll report confirms the recent renewed downturn after the disinflation rebound ended is exactly what we've feared all along. A break down of the data and market reaction. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7