Podcasts about Deflation

Flat Beveridge strikes again. You know the drill. We've been stuck in forgot how to grow and its no-hire/no-fire labor market the past few years. That began to change last year, especially last summer when no-hiring somehow got to be even less hiring. Then last year and this year, no-firing became some firing, in other words, shifting to the flat part of the Beveridge curve. But what we've been getting more recently looks to be an escalation in firing. Verizon just announced it may be cutting 15% of its 100,000 strong workforce.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Texas Service Sector Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2025/2510#tab-reportBloomberg Verizon Eyes Up to 15,000 Layoffs as New CEO Takes Chargehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/verizon-layoffs-could-come-next-week-as-new-ceo-takes-chargeCNBC White House says October jobs and inflation data may never be released because of the shutdownhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/white-house-october-data-release.htmlBloomberg Fed's Perli Says Won't Be Long Before Fed Starts Buying Assetshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/fed-s-perli-says-won-t-be-long-before-fed-starts-buying-assetshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The collapse and bankruptcy of another private credit supported firm has generated significant losses this week. But as I pointed out last week with the shuttered UBS sponsored hedge funds, it isn't necessarily the amount of money being burned. It's what each of these cockroaches reveals, and how they add to the growing mistrust about the entire private credit shadow banking network. That's the real danger which could threaten to unravel a whole lot more than a few troubled firms. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------------Get the free guide that breaks down the real economic signals behind America's shrinking consumer demand, and how to protect your wealth before the slowdown hits your income https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home-------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg BlackRock Faces 100% Loss on Private Loan, Adding to Credit Market Painhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marksBloomberg Why First Brands Has Sparked So Many Concerns on Wall Streethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/why-first-brands-collapse-sparked-concerns-on-wall-streetBloomberg Car Loan Delinquencies Hit Record for Riskiest Borrowershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/car-loan-delinquencies-hit-record-for-riskiest-borrowershttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Fast food chain Wendy's said it's closing hundreds more US locations than previously announced because customers can't afford to eat there. It fits with what McDonalds US President said last week about how the entire industry is fighting for contracting traffic. It sounds practically Chinese talking about oversupply of cheap hamburgers and chicken nuggets. But as we know only too well from China's economy, it isn't too much production it is the lack of demand. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------------Get the free guide that breaks down the real economic signals behind America's shrinking consumer demand, and how to protect your wealth before the slowdown hits your income https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home-------------------------------------------------------------------USA Today Wendy's to close roughly 300 stores nationwide starting in late 2025https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/11/07/wendys-closing-hundreds-stores-2025/87146469007/CNBC McDonald's U.S. boss puts focus on ‘value and affordability' as consumer spending splitshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/mcdonalds-us-boss-memo-value-affordability.htmlBloomberg US Small-Business Optimism Dips to Six-Month Low on Earningshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/us-small-business-optimism-slips-to-six-month-low-on-earningsBloomberg US Companies Shed Jobs in Late October, Weekly ADP Data Showhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/us-firms-shed-11-250-jobs-per-week-in-four-weeks-to-oct-25-adphttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The federal government may be opening back up but the administration floating a tariff dividend is the real news here. It's yet another dose of reality showing the stock market is not that reality. Americans are struggling and the timing behind this dividend is transparently in response to worsening economic conditions. After all, more Americans say they think unemployment is coming than at any time since 1980.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Ready to make your week count? Subscribe to One Big Weekly Theme today. You can sample the service or sign up and get started straight away. Visit https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.comPresident Trump Truth Socialhttps://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115514453574326959https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115520395997089111https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115519726463094783NBC Trump floats giving Americans cash for health care and tariff dividendshttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-floats-giving-americans-cash-health-care-tariff-dividends-rcna242835Bloomberg Bessent Says Trump's $2,000 ‘Dividend' May Come Via Tax Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-09/bessent-says-trump-s-2-000-dividend-may-come-via-tax-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Register here to attend the live virtual event "How to Scale Your Portfolio, with Tenanted Cash Flowing, New Construction Properties" on Thursday, November 13th at 8pm Eastern. Keith discusses Billie Eilish's views on billionaires and contrasts her stance with Grant Cardone's, emphasizing the value billionaires bring.  Hear about the Fed's decision to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), predicting lower interest rates.  GRE Investment Coach, Naresh Vissa, joins the conversation to highlight the benefits of new build properties, such as lower maintenance and higher tenant quality, and mentions a 10% cashback incentive from builders.  Resources: Register for the event at GREwebinars.com Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/579 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com or text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:00   Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, should billionaires even exist? Why do so many people think that interest rates of all types are headed even lower than as a real estate investor, how to identify and capitalize on an opportunity in this era? It's something that I've never seen before. Today on get rich education   Speaker 1  0:27   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from flatiron, Manhattan to Flatbush, Brooklyn, across New York City and 188 world nations. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's the longest federal government shutdown in US history. This whole thing has now lasted longer than most gym memberships. I guess the GDP stands for government doesn't produce, hmm. Before we get into our core investing and real estate content today, Billie Eilish, the singer, recently made some public remarks on whether or not billionaires should even exist. Yeah. Now if you're not familiar with her, Billie Eilish is known for her kind of unique style, sort of these baggy clothes, neon hair, avant garde fashion, and she has a reputation for being outspoken about a lot of things like mental health and body image and environmental issues. Now, in general, I respect people for speaking their mind, whether I agree or not, because a lot of people are just afraid to do that. Let's listen in to this short clip on what she said. You might have heard this because it was pretty widely broadcasted. Eilish spoke after receiving recognition at the Wall Street Journal innovator awards. This is courtesy of the AP. And then I'll come back to comment.   Speaker 2  2:58   We're in a time right now where the world is really, bad and really dark, and people need empathy and help more than kind of ever, especially in our country. And I'd say if you have money, it would be great to use it for good things and maybe give it to some people that need it and love you all, but there's a few people in here that have a lot more money than me, and if you're a billionaire, why are you a billionaire? No hate, but yeah, give your money away. Shorties. Love you guys. Thank you so much.   Speaker 3  3:40   First of all, without explicitly saying it, she's basically referencing how inflation widened the canyon between the haves and the have nots and GRE listeners that have acted have been on the right side of that canyon. I actually want to give Billie Eilish some credit here. Giving is virtuous. That is a good thing. In fact, next month, I plan to discuss the pros and cons of giving here on the show as we approach Christmas. Billie Eilish, she's certainly not a hypocrite either, because she's given away more than $10 million of her estimated $50 million dollar net worth. She's into feeding people and climate initiatives that right there is giving away more than 20% of your net worth, and that is really kind. Now, you heard her say there's a few people in here that have a lot more money than me, and she's right. Mark Zuckerberg was in that room. His net worth of over 200 billion means that his net worth is more than 4000 times greater than Billy eilish's. It sounds loosely like she's. shaming him for not giving away more of his wealth. And I don't know just offhand how much Zuck gives away, but this is where my credit to Billy Eilish stops. I think that it's okay for a person to be a billionaire. I wouldn't question that. I mean, a lot of times it meant that that person was willing to take risks that others would not dare try. A billionaire probably means you're a person of great value, and that you've hired hundreds or 1000s of other people, creating jobs for them. A billionaire has almost certainly created a product that society values. Jeff Bezos pioneered one day delivery. Zuckerberg connects people through his meta platforms. And now I'm not going to say that either one of those billionaires are perfect people. They are flawed, just like you and I. Billionaires probably pay more tax than the average person as well. That supports the infrastructure that you and I and everybody use, like building bridges or creating a fiber optic network. I would expect that a billionaire would be a giver as well. And see, if you're a billionaire, you have more ability to give than the average person does, you can make a greater impact. And see, this is where things really break down and not make sense. So if Billie Eilish is net worth is 50 million, Oh, apparently that's just okay. That's fine with her. But once it gets to 20 times greater than that, which is 1 billion, then it's not okay. So that means the line is drawn somewhere in there. That makes zero sense to me. The ceiling on what you're supposed to have in net worth is between 50 million and 1 billion. Like, I really do not get the logic on that one. And you know, a guest that we've had on the show here, Grant Cardone, whether you like him or not, he has had some on point remarks about these Billy Eilish comments himself to the question that she posited, which is, if you're a billionaire, why are you a billionaire? Cardone's answer is, if you're a pop star, why are you a pop star? Billy said, give your money away. Cardone's response to her is, give your music away. That's some food for thought there. That's my take on the Billy Eilish remarks on whether or not billionaires should exist. And if you want to hear Grant Cardone and I's conversation here on GRE, that was episode 264 the title of it is Keith Weinhold and Grant Cardone 10x your wealth number 264, a lot of listeners like that episode saying something like it was a dream to hear grant and I together for the first time. Like that, their favorite sales trainer on their favorite real estate show. You can listen by either scrolling way back to get rich education episode 264 in your podcatcher, or you can listen directly by going to get rich education.com/ 264,    Keith Weinhold  8:11   now the Fed has said that they are going to slow or end Qt, next month. All right, when Jerome Powell says something like this, what does that really mean to you as an investor? What can you expect ending QT? Well, you probably already know that QE quantitative easing that has the effect of creating dollars. Qt is the opposite. It has the effect of destroying dollars. So if they're ending Qt, this helps keep more dollars around in the future. So ending Qt then, like we expect soon, that really parallels a lower interest rate environment, because see lower rates already make dollars flow more freely. You probably remember the analogy that I introduced to you on the show earlier this year about how lower rates are like lowering the height of a dam wall. It makes it easier for water to flow, so then lowering rates makes it easier for money to flow, and that's because low savings account rates make people get money out of those vehicles. Okay, that's that low dam wall and low borrowing rates make that money flow as well. People will unlock dollars if rates are low, late last year, the Fed dropped rates a full 1% then they didn't make any moves for a while, until late this year, they've now dropped rates another half a percent. That's the environment that we're in. So then more QE and less QT. That further eases the flow of dollars, and it correlates with even lower rates that are coming in the future. Now it doesn't mean that they will. I'm not saying that they certainly will. There is just that tendency, that correlation. So we had pandemic era QE there about five years ago, that ended as we moved to Qt in 2022 and now what we're doing is unwinding Qt, moving back toward more flow, and it surely gets more technical than that. Ending Qt allows the Fed to expand its balance sheet again. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, once matured, can now be replaced, and that injects liquidity into the system once again, and that is where we're going. Bank reserves are reaching ample levels again, and there is no need to put liquidity stress on money markets. A lot of these moves are here. What they're here for is to help ease the concerning labor market. It's been almost exactly three years now since chatgpt launched, and a while back, I mentioned how companies were newly interested in hiring the shiny new job that didn't exist before the AI prompt engineer that was one of the hottest jobs. Well, yeah, that was true back in 2023 but not so much. Now. A lot of companies have figured out that the employees that wanted to keep their job, well, they figured out real quick how to be the Ask AI, good questions guy, and we are seeing more layoffs later today, my guest and I will talk about that, and also he's going to make somewhat of a future mortgage rate forecast, or at least talk about the direction that they're going in. I think you're really going to like that. I don't predict rates myself, but sometimes a guest will. That's what's happening today. My point here is that with Qt ending, which again lowers the damn wall height and eases the flow of money, that parallels the fact that we have lower interest rates now than what we had one year ago, and we have lower interest rates now than what we had two years ago. As well, be mindful that you cannot get it all as a real estate investor. You cannot get soaring employment and low interest rates together. You cannot get those two things together, at least not for long. High employment means high rates. Low employment means low rates. Today's guest, and I will get into that as well.    Keith Weinhold  12:43   Well as we've had lower rates, hence a lower wall height, don't buy property and expect that you'll be able to refi into a lower rate within a year. If it happens, great. Don't buy expecting rents to go up or rates to go down, although many think that will happen. Just enjoy it. If it does, rent vesting has been on the rise lately. Yes, rent vesting. What that means is when you pay rent in the property where you live, and then the only properties that you own are rental properties. Rent vesting makes sense if you live in California, New York City and Boston, since rent to price ratios are so low there, and then you invest your dollars inland, that's how you can live in a high cost place and yet still benefit from cheap rental property and have income streams from them. You might remember that some months ago, I interviewed two listener guests on the show, everyday listeners, just like you, and California based investor and GRE listener, Joshua Fang, told us about his rent vesting. He pays rent in his primary residence, since the rent to price ratio might be three tenths of 1% there and then he owns property in GRE marketplace markets, I think it was Memphis and elsewhere where you're benefiting from, say, eight tenths of 1% that is called rent, vesting, investing in properties that make sense that you buy through GRE marketplace. And remember when Josh told us that passive income gives him time to enjoy life and even stop and watch two lizards for 15 minutes? Oh, what passive income can do. It's the quirky things that you remember. See. The point is that smart people in high cost states are rent vesting, if that's what you've got to do in order to own real assets. Then do it get on the right side, as this difference between the haves and the have nots just keeps expanding. I just did something that you might find interesting over the weekend for the first time in years. I visited that first fourplex building that I ever owned, which is also the first piece of real estate that I ever owned, that blue colored fourplex, and it is still blue. The address of that property is 925 east, 45th court, and it's in Midtown Anchorage. It has never been a pretty neighborhood, and I confirmed that it still is not. It looks a touch worse than when I owned it. I straightened up the curb appeal more than today's owner does. I bought the four Plex over 20 years ago for $295,000 and at that time, on the day that I bought. The total rents were $2,900 because it was 725 per door. I just looked on Zillow. And do you want to guess at its zestimated value today? Yes, it cost 295k back in 2002 and today, the Zestimate is 625k I don't know what today's rents are. My guess is that they're just short of $6,000 for all four units combined, two bed, one bath, 960 square foot units, really plain vanilla, boring looking housing, but it's certainly not like a crime ridden slum. It's just that depressing looking block that's just chock full of disorder and these other four Plex buildings and dumpsters all over the place. But yeah, that's how it all began for me. I visited that building again, and I haven't owned it in a while. I 1031 exchange out of it and into an eight Plex in 2013 if it weren't for that building, you would not be listening to me right now, and you would not have heard of me, because this show wouldn't exist big thanks to the three and a half percent down FHA loan for someone that came from humble means, like me.    Keith Weinhold  17:03   Last month, I did a running race that goes up a ski jump that was pretty cool. It gets so steep that you have to grab onto a cargo net to pull yourself up. It's almost like a rope ladder. I did not win. I got fifth out of 21 competitors in that race. Hey, I like to get out and physically challenge myself. After talking real estate all day, my body weight is up a little. It's currently sitting at 178 pounds. That's 81 kilograms for our European listeners, and it hit its recent bottom of 172 back on the Fourth of July. That's by design. I need to be really leaned out for a big Independence Day race every summer. You know, I'm one of those guys where I still cannot compete with bodybuilders because I'm too lean, and yet I don't win running races because I'm too bulky, so I'm more of an all around guy. I do about seven different sports, and that's exactly how I win nothing and always get like, fifth place or worse. This major mammal has got to keep himself moving, In any case.   Keith Weinhold  18:17   next week here on the show, we'll talk to a Harvard grad. She's super interesting. She used to work at Apple, and then she founded an AI centric property management company so that you can use her platform to self manage and leverage AI. But are we at the point where your tenant would really talk to a chatbot? Would that fly? And if society is there, well then do property management fees and everything start trending towards zero. I'm going to ask her about that. That's next week. As for today, you know, the world series ended about a week ago, and what I did is that I watched 10 commercials during the World Series, and then I jotted down the name of each sponsor, and here's who the World Series advertisers were just in this one segment where I paid attention to them. They're all big brands that you've heard of atnt Liberty, mutual nature made brand items like vitamins and supplements, Starbucks, Coors, light, Qdoba, Capital One, Home Depot, crest, white strips and Jim Beam, all right, those were the 10. What do those 10 have in common? More or less, any ideas there those 10 products and companies are all for consumer products. That's the common link. And that might seem so obvious that you wouldn't even think of it. Well, this is because most ads are for consumer products. Those ads fuel consumerism. And there's nothing wrong with that at all. That. Represents an economy. In fact, I use some of those very companies in my personal life.    Keith Weinhold  20:04   But here's the difference here at GRE our sponsors help you produce, not consume. Think about that as you listen to me in this spot for freedom, family investments and then Ridge lending group, then I'm coming back for more with a terrific guest.    Keith Weinhold  20:23   You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why? Fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,   Keith Weinhold  21:34   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   John Lee Dumas  22:08   this is Entrepreneur on fires, John Lee, Dumas, don't follow Money. Make money. Follow you with get rich. Education.   Keith Weinhold  22:22   So we have a familiar voice back on the show. It's an in house discussion here with our own GRE investment coach. And like I've told you before, he's got both the formal education with his MBA and the self education, because he's an active real estate investor for four years now, he has helped you completely free, usually over the phone, sometimes on Zoom. He learns your own personal goals and then helps you find the market that's right for you in fitting those goals. And I've had listeners like you tell me that, you know, I can't believe that getting his actionable insight is free, and now he can help you best, though, if you're ready to own more income property, he even helps connect you with the exact property address, like say, 321, raspberry Street in Huntsville, Alabama. So it's great to welcome back to the show and provide the listener with a respite from my mouth breathing rhetoric and discourse, it is GRE investment coach. Naresh Vissa,   Naresh Vissa  23:24   thanks a lot, Keith. I can't believe it's been four years. It's been four amazing years, and congratulations to you and to GRE for being around so long and together, we have grown our listenership, and we appreciate all of you listeners, listening out there, for sure,   Keith Weinhold  23:42   real estate activity has slowed down overall, but things are still really vibrant. Here at GRE we see more activity than we saw last year, and when we talk about increasing activity, Naresh, the Fed, looks to do that when they reduce interest rates, that incentivizes businesses to borrow, that incentivizes consumers to spend, because, for example, they're not getting as high of a yield and their savings account. So now we're here in this fed cutting cycle. Tell us what that means from your perspective.   Naresh Vissa  24:15   We talked about this a few months ago when I was on the podcast at the Federal Reserve. I predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin a rate cutting cycle, and that this cycle would be extensive. It would not be an overnight, 100 basis point cut, or anything like that we saw in March. So that rate cutting cycle has begun, and they continue to cut. And we did an entire episode on President Trump and the name calling with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in the middle of next year. It's May of next year, when he's leaving. And with all that pressure, I predicted that the Fed would begin its rate cutting cycle. We are in the. Cutting cycle right now. They did a few cuts last year and stopped, which I thought were mistakes. But with that being said, we are in the thick of this cutting cycle. We are going to see more cuts moving forward. And what that means you're already seeing it. As a real estate investor, you are seeing, I don't want to say low interest rates, but lower interest rates compared to where we were a year ago, compared to where we were certainly 234, years Well, maybe not four years ago, but three years ago, we are seeing far lower interest rates, and we will continue to see interest rates, in the sense of mortgage rates, plummet as a result of this. So enjoy the low rates while they last, because they're not going to last forever. Nothing lasts forever, but the Federal Reserve, you throw in the government shutdown, I think it makes sense that the Federal Reserve continues to cut, because there's no telling where inflation is going to go. The experts thought that inflation would go up, up, up, up and be a significant problem. They've been saying that since the election winner last year or the election night last year, we haven't necessarily seen that. We have seen inflation somewhat go up, but we haven't seen that runaway inflation that many of the experts predicted as a result of the tariffs, as a result of the rate cutting, I think it definitely helps that number one, Doge, cut several government programs and cut a lot of government spending, not as much as they thought they would, but they cut enough to where they're limiting the amount of federal government spending. We've also seen mass layoffs, mass layoffs in the public sector, which has seeped into the private sector as well, because many of these private companies, like an Accenture, for example, many of these tech companies that were getting subsidies from the government, that funding has stopped, and that has led to layoffs. Now, what layoffs do is layoffs create, I don't want to say deflation, but layoffs are disinflationary, right? And we've seen significant layoffs, like I said, since February of earlier this year, when Doge was in the thick this government shutdown has led to mass layoffs as well. So we've seen 10s of 1000s of people well, we've seen hundreds of 1000s of people furloughed, if not at least a million people furloughed now, they will end up getting their pay, but we've seen 10s of 1000s of people laid off as a result of this government shutdown. And what that means is, again, this is very disinflationary. That's less money that the government is spending moving forward, not just right now, but moving forward. So there's a savings there that's also more people who are probably going to hold on to their cash as tightly as possible as they find new work. So this is, once again, disinflationary. And what does all this mean? All of this, to me, seems disinflationary. It goes against the narrative that when you cut interest rates, inflation goes up. It goes against a narrative that when you implement tariffs, inflation goes up, and that's why we haven't seen the runaway inflation that many so called experts were predicting. I think moving forward, the Fed continues to cut because of the weakness, at least when it comes to the job situation, because of the weakness with jobs, and because of unemployment, it's gone up somewhat. I think the Fed ends up continuing their rate cutting cycle through the end of Powell's term, and it could be just a series of 25 basis points every time they meet. Maybe if things get if there's something that they don't like, they up it to 50 basis points at one of the meetings. But the bottom line is, I think they're just going to keep cutting until Powell is gone, and then Trump will put in his guy into the Fed chair. And by that point, we may have cut enough to where there's not much left to cut yet, and that's when we're going to see there's a chance that could happen, or there's a chance the next guy will pick up where Powell left off and and do series of cuts as well. But what that means is that mortgage rates, we can expect, that's one of the most common questions I get from GRE followers, yeah, it's where do you see mortgage rates going? Because these people, they're not a lot of our followers, they're not following the intricacies of the market. Most of our followers have full time jobs as doctors or dentists or engineers or IT workers, and they're not following the ins and outs. And so the most common question that I get is, where are interest rates going? And I've been pretty spot on for the past few years, minus a few mistakes that I thought the Fed made. But I'm very confident when I say, just like I said when I came on earlier this year, that interest rates are on their way down there, and they are not on their way up.   Keith Weinhold  29:51   Just wait until this administration gets their guy in as the Fed chair. It almost feels like we're going to see a Javier Malay Argentina. President, you know, coming in with the chainsaw, they want to cut rates so aggressively, this administration, and Jerome Powell has sort of been a buffer against that, and Naresh has been using the term disinflation. I don't want you, the listener, to confuse that with deflation. Deflation means an increase in the purchasing power of your dollar, something that we rarely see. Disinflation means a slowing in price increases, meaning the rate of inflation goes down. And yes, I think it's been pretty obvious, and I've stated on the show before as well, that the Fed cares more about the employment situation than they do the inflation situation, probably, and you as an investor, you need to be careful what you wish for, because low rates sound really good, and they can be, but high employment typically correlates with high interest rates of all types, and lower employment typically correlates with low rates of all types. Rates get lowered because they know that the economy needs the help so you can't get both. You can't get both high employment and low rates. That condition doesn't persist for very long. And the Naresh during this part of the cycle, it's really been unusual and interesting at how new build properties have such advantages for investors today, including the aberration that the median new build property costs $33,500 less than the median existing property. That data is per the NAR when we think about new build property. Well, wait, first of all, that sounds amazing, and some people are incredulous about that, but there are reasons that the average new build property costs less. A lot of times the size is smaller. A lot of builders are building further from city centers. So I think before an investor gets in and buys a new build property, one really important question for them to ask is, oh, okay, well, how far is that property from an employment center. But otherwise, it's really the right time in the cycle for new build. New build can make your investment more passive. You know, you've got new fixtures, of course, and a warranty, and you're going to have lower insurance costs as well, typically, on a new build property. And Naresh, as you're talking with our followers and investors about new build property. I'm just kind of wondering, do you get more people that want to self manage the property because it's new build, because they figured that their maintenance and repair requests are going to be fewer? Or what do you see in there?   Naresh Vissa  32:35   No, not at all. Because the strength of GRE is that we connect investors, we coach investors so that they can own real estate around the country. They're not owning real estate in their neighborhood or in the area that they live in. We only focus on markets that make sense, generally linear markets, state friendly landlord friendly states, those other markets we are focusing on. So even with new builds we are seeing, I would say 100% of investors saying, hey, I want professional property manager, managing the property that's extremely, extremely common, that is the norm. I will also say, with new builds you brought up earlier, when you introduced me, I own several properties. The last two properties I bought were new construction. Were new builds. Yeah. And I personally comparing the first six properties of rehabs to my last two, which were new builds, I've had far fewer issues with the new builds, not just far fewer issues. I would say overall, the profitability has been greater with the new builds, despite the pro forma initially showing that I would barely Break Even now, I did buy several several years ago before all this appreciation and inflation hit. But it certainly helped a lot to have new builds where the maintenance is far lower and where the quality of the tenant is extremely high. So I generally recommend our investors, if you have the capital available, and generally, just to keep things simple, I say if you have $100,000 in liquid cash ready to go, there's no reason why you shouldn't be buying a new build. Would I waste my time with the rehabs, with the burrs. I mean, those could be profitable too. You should never say no to anything but the new builds. I've slept better at night because of those reasons, because I know at least for the first 10 years that there aren't going to be any major problems and the quality of the tenant is going to be far higher. So I'm a huge fan of new builds, not pre construction. Pre construction means you're buying a plot of land, and then you hope that the builder is going to build a home on top of it. And most of the time, the builder does, but many times, as we saw during the pandemic, there were key. Countless stories around the country of developers selling pre construction and then nothing ever got built. They ended up flipping the land and generating a profit off of it. I don't recommend those at all, but new construction is the way to go. And I'll also add one more tidbit about the previous topic that we talked about, regarding interest rates also remember that lower interest rates mean that the government and their debt they're going to be paying, they can refinance their debt and pay lower interest on their debt when interest rates go down. So that's also going to help reduce the the deficit, and it's going to help reduce the debt as well. So that will help bring inflation down.   Keith Weinhold  35:42   We're talking about buying a property that's already built with new construction, and in a lot of cases, like we'll talk about shortly, it's already tenanted for you as well. So it really reduces the guesswork and the waiting. And of course, new build properties tend to appreciate better than existing properties. So, yeah, tell us more about new build properties, because they tend to be in Florida and Texas that really has an outsized number of them right now. And that's where the builders are really giving incentives when we talk about appreciation, and where we think about appreciation going in the future. You know, appreciation has been really tepid, really boring. Prices have even contracted a little in some Florida and Texas sub markets, but with the long term trend, visual capitalists just shared a terrific map from today to 2050 for example, the Texas population is expected to grow 27% one of the fastest growth states that there is going to be. And a lot of people say, Oh, isn't it going to pass California in population soon? No, not anytime soon. It'll be decades. California is expected to grow 8% over the next 25 years, but Texas is a place where the numbers still can make sense on new build, because you have some overbuilding. So some builders are really incentivized to give you a good deal.   Naresh Vissa  37:06   Well, there are several markets in general. Let's just talk about it. You use an important term, which is appreciation. With new builds, the likelihood of appreciation is greater. This is statistically backed up. You can go check your sources, but the likelihood of appreciation is far greater with new builds compared to older rehabs, a property that's 50 years old, six years old. In fact, those properties probably appreciated early on in their life cycle, and that's just generally how it works. So with new builds, I say look, cash flow is still important. Cash flow is one of the tenets of real estate paying five ways. It's one of the core tenets of get rich education. But you also have that appreciation play with new builds. Again, it's about markets, because if you're buying a new build in, let's say a California or a New York or a New Hampshire, some really anywhere in the northeast, then it is somewhat of a speculative play, depending on the price point, depending on a lot of different other factors. But when you're talking about the markets that we operate in at GRE you brought up two of them, Florida and Texas. There are other markets, like in Tennessee and Oklahoma, where we have new constructions, and they are also positive, cash flowing, high appreciation place. So you just never know what's going to happen. I bought a new construction, for example, just outside of Memphis six years ago. It was just outside of Memphis in Mississippi six years ago, and I bought it for purely cash flow purposes. The pro forma looked good. Property was brand new. It was near several areas where there were many jobs. So I said, Hey, this is a good cash flow play. And I even remember asking my sales agent, hey, what do you think about appreciation? I usually never buy for appreciation, but this is a new construction. What do you think? And he said, You know what? I don't know if this is really going to appreciate that much. I'm not really sure about that. So I said, that's fine. I like the cash flow. Well, fast forward, six years later, as I said, we you just never know what's going to happen. We saw this inflation. We also saw an influx of people migrating into Tennessee, migrating into Mississippi, especially that Mississippi Tennessee border migrating into the Memphis area. Now we have the Trump administration, sent in the National Guard  about about a month ago, sent in the National Guard into the Memphis area, and they haven't left. They're still there, and crime has is at least based on the numbers that crime has really the National Guard has made a big difference on crime, and that's usually the number one deterrent for a market like Memphis. The point that I'm making here is that you just never know what's going to happen with these new construction builds. If you can get positive cash flow, I always tell our listeners. Shouldn't buy a new construction that's negatively cash flowing. You still want to protect yourself. You don't want to be paying money out of your bank account to own a property. Money should be coming in. So you still want to be positive cash flow. And the appreciation is a huge, huge plus, even in areas that you would not think or that you would not expect to appreciate all that much.   Keith Weinhold  40:22   Appreciation just is not as much of a story over on some other platforms, perhaps, or the way that people think about it, because if you pay all cash, appreciation isn't that good for you, but you're leveraged at four to one or five to one with a 20 to 25% down payment, which can really give you those outsized rates of return, which aligns with what we talk about here at GRE Well, we have a live upcoming virtual event. It is this coming Thursday, and before I ask you if you have anything else to tell the audience here as we wrap up, Naresh, it is hosted by you. So it is co hosted by our own in house investment coach Naresh, and our guest that you heard last week here on the show radio veteran Adam. The Event Thursday is called how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties where you can get up to $41,000 cash back after closing, we talk about these builder incentives. So today's real estate market is really giving buyers opportunities for new builds that I haven't seen, maybe ever. Builders are incentivized to move their properties, and we've made headway with builders to get you up to a 10% cash back incentive at closing when you purchase, you can either take the cash at closing or boost your cash flow by buying down your rate, perhaps get some rent credits, so learn how you can take advantage and really prime yourselves for moves today that are going to lead to your success in coming years. And we have tenanted again, tenanted already occupied new build properties in hot markets like Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Texas, ready for you to purchase with up to that 10% builder incentive so that you can cash flow from day one. And these properties are really in high quality communities, primarily owner occupied, high appreciation, upside, solid rent growth. So learn the strategy, learn the markets and even see available new build income property. The benefit of you attending is that you can have your questions answered in real time by Naresh or Adam. You can sign up for that now at grewebinars.com It is Thursday, November 13, at 8pm Eastern. Any last thoughts as we lead into Thursday, Naresh?   Naresh Vissa  42:45   Gre, webinars.com gre, webinars.com go to that website to register for our free online special event. It will be live. I'm going to be there with Adam. You heard on last week's podcast, we've got some great deals and great incentives, like what you said, Keith, and they're all new constructions. They're all new constructions, mostly in Texas. And these are major markets in Texas too. We're not talking, yeah, many of our followers and listeners, they see a new construction, and they're like, I've never heard of this place in Alabama, or I've never heard of this place in Oklahoma. These are in legitimate suburbs, areas outside of Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, some of them are even in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio proper. So these are markets that everybody is familiar with. It's not some podunk town that you may have seen on our GREmarketplace or GRE spreadsheet in an Arkansas or in Alabama. These are mostly in Texas. The incentives are great, and these are national builders as well. These are not small, no name, Mom and Pop builders. These are national builders who we are working with to offer these special incentives. These are names like you've heard. Many people have heard. Some of them are publicly traded companies like an LGI, that's a very large national builder. That's who we've partnered with to get these deals so grewebinars.com is the link to register for our online special event. GREwebinars.com. I hope to see all of you this Thursday,   Keith Weinhold  44:31   major builders, major markets and major incentives on new build property. You're going to hear more from Naresh on Thursday, it's been great having you back on the show.   Naresh Vissa  44:43   Thanks a lot. Keith   Keith Weinhold  44:50   oh yeah. Naresh does a better job of hosting GRE webinars than I do. In my opinion, you'll remember that I hosted them myself until 2020 23 but you know, maybe I'll come on to a future event for just the first five minutes on one of the upcoming ones, and give an intro before I let the real pros take over. This event is called really just what it is, how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties. It's co hosted by Naresh and Adam, who you met last week. I have never seen this before, where the builder is giving you a fat 10% discount after closing, 10% you can use those 10s of 1000s of dollars to buy your rate down into the fours or other things like use it toward a down payment on another property, pair it with DSCR loans and pay no mortgage insurance on either property. You could buy one property or two properties or 18 properties through the event and DSCR loans. You might remember that means no time consuming income verification, no concerns about your debt to income ratio or W twos or tax returns. We'll show you how to do it all. Like Naresh was saying, we eat our own cooking. We ourselves. Here at GRE are investors too, and we are buying new build for our own personal portfolios. The time is right for this. It wasn't a few years ago, and a few years from now, it probably won't be either. Hundreds are already signed up for it. It is this Thursday, at 8pm Eastern. It's GRE, last event of the year. This is it one last time attend by signing up at grewebinars.com that's grewebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 4  46:59   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively. You   Keith Weinhold  47:27   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com  

CarMax sacked their CEO after preannouncing just brutal results for an industry already reeling and at the epicenter of the current ongoing breakdown in credit markets. The stock plunged 25% Thursday when management disclosed unit sales are looking to crash by 8 to 12% in the latest quarter. Relatedly, consumer confidence plunged to record and near-record lows...and it has little to do with the govt shutdown. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 304. Ed Dowd argues we're already in a technical recession, with the stock market bubble driven by just seven stocks masking underlying economic weakness as housing rolls over, layoffs accelerate at Amazon and UPS, and credit markets tighten. He warns that insider selling is at unprecedented levels as institutions distribute to retail investors in classic "FOMO" behavior, while the equal-weighted S&P has gone nowhere since January. Dowd criticizes the Trump administration for gaslighting Americans about the economy instead of communicating the Biden hangover from illegal immigration and deficit spending, explains China is exporting deflation due to their real estate crisis and 20 years of excess housing inventory, and predicts a deflation scare with oil plummeting to $30 before the Fed intervenes with massive QE. He recommends raising cash and moving into treasuries like Warren Buffett, expects the dollar to rip as liquidity dries up globally, sees gold hitting $10,000 by 2030 as central banks accumulate it, and warns Bitcoin will go much lower as it's underperforming treasuries—an early warning indicator of the risk-off environment ahead.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm?Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdwardTimestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:09 - Macro view5:00 - Credit markets tightening, distribution phase of stock market, Trump administration gaslighting about economy7:00 - China at a crossroads: real estate crisis going acute7:55 - China exporting deflation, depreciating the yuan9:00 - Tariffs are deflationary10:00 - Risk-off environment is coming11:00 - Dollar outlook 12:40 - Risk off environment: flight to safety into treasuries14:20 - Three Hindenburg omens: market breadth disaster15:00 - Gold discussion: long-term bullish, going to $10,000 by 203017:00 - AI bubble: momentum and administration fomenting it22:20 - Retail FOMO buying: sign of unhealthy market24:32 - Fed cutting but still behind the curve27:00 - Credit markets sniffing out deflation scare30:00 - 1970s stagflation period: inflation/deflation yo-yo30:37 - Oil going to $30: China internal consumption plummeted33:43 - Gaslighting about the economy: people feel the reality 35:30 - China facing crossroads and crisis starting in 2020 40:00 - Dollar liquidity issue: people scrambling for dollars 40:40 - Treasury Secretary Bessent can term out debt during recession 41:03 - Yellen front-loaded debt, significance of terming it out 42:30 - Immigration 48:40 - 100% probability we're in recession now 49:30 - How to be allocated: raise cash for flexibility 50:40 - Japan carry trade could blow up at any moment 52:00 - What makes Ed optimistic: asset prices will come down 54:07 - Where to find Ed's work and research

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, and Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, are back to break down the latest macro news and market drivers after a brutal week for risk assets.

UBS is reportedly closing down not one but two hedge funds, in a more that raises a lot of questions but also some very uncomfortable parallels to 2007. One of those funds is exposed to First Brands, so understandable. The other...isn't. And that raises the prospect of the R-word; in this case, that does not stand for recession, rather its uglier monetary twin. Bloomberg UBS Winds Down O'Connor Funds in Sign of First Brands Strainhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-06/ubs-to-wind-down-o-connor-funds-with-first-brands-exposureNYT $3.2 Billion Move by Bear Stearns to Rescue Fundhttps://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/23/business/23bond.htmlhttps://eurodollar.university

The most October job cuts in over twenty years. More than October 2008, if you're keeping score. While that doesn't mean this is a repeat of 2008, can we all finally admit this is a really serious situation? And as the flat Beveridge curve emerges more clearly, the rising unemployment it represents is also causing collateral damage, pun intended. The New York Fed said yesterday auto, credit card and student loan delinquencies hit levels, well you'll have to see.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Nov 06 October Challenger Report: 153,074 Job Cuts on Cost-Cutting & AIhttps://www.challengergray.com/blog/october-challenger-report-153074-job-cuts-on-cost-cutting-ai/Revelio Labs Employment — October 2025https://www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor-statistics/employment/Revelio Labs RPLS Reports 60k Jobs Added in September Amid BLS Shutdownhttps://www.reveliolabs.com/news/macro/rpls-september-release/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The dollar is accelerating and not in the direction most people were anticipating, to the point it has rattled the entire cryptocurrency space. That's why cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin just got hit with a major selloff this week as the dollar debasement theme which had driven their latest surge comes up completely empty. More important than that, however, the dollar is accelerating higher which signals quite a lot all its own. But what? You can see how this gets confusing with all this unnatural noise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Not only is retail giant Target not committing to the big seasonal hiring it always does, the company is actually laying off nearly 2000 of its corporate staff in its biggest management and job shakeup in years. Target is merely the latest “one-off” big name to announce job cuts. No wonder consumer confidence just took another huge hit and that was from the one survey that has held up the best this year.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships Bloomberg A Wave of US Layoffs Flash Early Warning Sign for Job Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/the-low-hire-low-fire-us-economy-seems-to-be-overBloomberg Target to Eliminate 1,800 Roles, 8% of Headquarters Teamhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-23/target-to-lay-off-8-of-headquarters-team-cut-1-800-rolesNYT UPS Has Cut 48,000 Workers Since Last Yearhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/business/ups-layoffs-48000-workers-this-year.htmlBloomberg A Slump in Cardboard Box Sales Is Stoking Fears of Lackluster Holiday Shoppinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/cardboard-box-sales-slump-signals-weak-holiday-shopping-aheadRCM/TIPP Optimism Index Drops Sharply https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/04/rcmtipp_optimism_index_drops_sharply_1145051.htmlhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The cash squeeze in wholesale money markets that we've been following got a whole more exciting on Friday, and now we have the full set of numbers on it. Interest rates soared the most since 2020 further proving the Federal Reserve's program which is supposed to keep this from happening doesn't keep it from happening. Imagine my shock. We also know that there were plenty of spare reserves available, too. And with more borrowing from the Fed again this morning so far, we have to consider the question whether this ongoing and escalating tightness is pointing to something bigger. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dr. Tom and Kari Curran talk about changes to their new season and stage in life: Senior discounts, refocused ministry work and health regimens. The Currans share practical insights for others feeling spiritually and physically deflated. References:Litany of Trust (Sisters of Life)

The ECB this week held its policy rate right at 2% with policymakers out in force claiming to everyone who might listen they're likely done at that level. Instead, GDP data from all over the continent just came out and showed there's more pringles yet to come from Europe. But there's also one big factor here few people are considering and it has to do with the 2% level itself.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. eurodollaruniversity.substack.comhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Bryan Cutsinger is a monetary historian and an assistant professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University. Bryan returns to the show to discuss how we think about deflation, the history of growth driven deflation, the connection between the postbellum period and today, the potential of rapid productivity growth from AI, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on September 23rd, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Bryan on X: @BryanPCutsinger Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:04:41 - Rethinking Deflation 00:35:48 - Rapid Productivity Growth from AI 00:46:35 - Tolerating Deflation 00:55:28 - Outro

Nebraska's season flips upside down and Dylan Raiola is out for the season.

New home sales in China collapsed by 42% in October when compared to last October, representing more than just another setback for the beleaguered Chinese real estate market, the world's largest asset class. This is a major problem for Chinese banks, not that they were expecting different. So, we see interest rates are back to moving lower, setting multi-month lows with the latest short-lived stretch of optimism based on Chinese tech stocks being burst yet again by the reality stocks are not real life. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise.  With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing.https://eurodollar.university/memberships Bloomberg PBOC Adviser Leads Call for Fiscal Support to Housing Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/pboc-adviser-leads-call-for-fiscal-aid-to-support-housing-markethttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The reason why Fed Chair Jay Powell didn't want to commit to a December rate cut is simple. A number of voting members at the FOMC are not convinced the weak labor market is actually all that weak. Sure, the numbers don't look good, but they're wonder if it is real. Well, Chipotle and Kraft-Heinz would like to answer them with a pair of serious warnings about what they're seeing from consumers.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Fed Cuts Rate by Quarter Point, With Dissents on Both Sideshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-10-29/fomc-rate-decision-and-fed-chair-news-conferenceBloomberg Chipotle Falls Most Since 2012 After Warning Over Diner Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/chipotle-cuts-outlook-for-third-time-in-2025-on-weaker-trafficWSJ Kraft Heinz Lowers Full-Year Outlook on Weak Consumption Trendshttps://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/kraft-heinz-khc-q3-earnings-report-stock-2025-a4c6430eYahooFinance Kraft Heinz bearish on outlook amid volume decreases ahead of splithttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-heinz-bearish-outlook-amid-173322392.htmlConference Board https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

FOMC will cut rates today but what will officials say, or do, about the growing repo mess? Find out as we react to the Fed's decisions and Powell's press statements. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro Analysis

Amazon announced today it will be cutting 14,000 corporate jobs, though leaker reports say the real number will be roughly 30,000 over time. The company itself says it needs to be more nimble to leverage AI technology when the timing and the target instead shows macroeconomic headwinds are behind the move. There is a reason why consumers believe the US economy is in recession right now. While layoffs like Amazon's remain relatively scarce, unemployment is piling up all over the place and so does the confirmation.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place.  Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another day, another significant borrowing from the Federal Reserve's repo facility. This has become a regular occurrence and concurrent with a rise in money market rates due to the cash squeeze I told you about yesterday, there's a lot of similarities to 2019 and it's got the Fed on track to not just cut rates this week also possibly terminate the balance sheet runoff – even if Steve doesn't quite agree.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The ongoing cash squeeze in money markets is very likely to bring an end to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff, known as QT. When the FOMC meets this coming week, officials are almost certainly going to cut rates given the perilous situation in labor. But with financial firms still using the Fed's repo facility and especially as benchmark money rates stay elevated, the second item on the list of decisions is going to be ending QT. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Visit https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com to sample the service or sign up and get started straight away. https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The dollar is making another big move higher to the point it is causing governments and central banks around the world to respond and even intervene to keep their own currencies from crashing against it. Fears over the global economic downturn are driving monetary tightness and demand for safety at the expense of those at the forefront of the broad decline. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Currency Officials Go on Offensive as Trade Angst in Asia Mountshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-16/currency-officials-go-on-offensive-as-trade-angst-in-asia-mountsBloomberg South Korea Says Watching One-Sided Won Volatility in Rare Movehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-13/south-korea-says-watching-one-sided-won-volatility-in-rare-moveBloomberg Swiss Franc's Haven Run Seen Nearing SNB Intervention Thresholdhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-24/swiss-franc-s-haven-run-seen-nearing-snb-intervention-thresholdhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We have a couple more names to add to our fast-growing list of shadow banking casualties. And, yes, collateral is once again the common theme. One of them is of course in subprime auto financing, but that's just another canary in the credit coalmine. The other has been accused of fabricating half a billion of collateral invoices. Half a billion. Fake collateral.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WSJ Bankrupt Telecom Business Accused of Fraud in Receivables Financinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/bankrupt-telecom-business-accused-of-fraud-in-receivables-financing-0370b4fdBloombergLaw Factoring-Firm Affiliate Files Chapter 11; Up to $1B Liabilitieshttps://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/factoring-firm-affiliate-files-chapter-11-up-to-1b-liabilitiesFreightWaves Factoring companies squeezed by slowing shipper payments: Alsobrookshttps://www.freightwaves.com/news/factoring-companies-squeezed-by-slowing-shipper-payments-alsobrooksBloomberg BOE's Bailey Warns ‘Alarm Bells' Ringing in Private Credithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/boe-s-bailey-warns-of-financial-crisis-echoes-in-private-credithttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

SHOW 10-22-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR HK 1925 THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT XI. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Colonel McCausland Discusses Postponed Budapest Summit, Gaza Ceasefire Instability, and Pentagon Information Control Jeff McCausland with John Batchelor Colonel McCausland explained the Budapest summit postponement, noting Putin demands Ukrainian surrender before a ceasefire. He considered Tomahawks an escalation of firepower, but not a game-changer, with delivery now on hold. McCausland described the Gaza ceasefire as precarious, lacking discussion or plan for Hamas disarmament, which he views as the necessary "red line" for stability. He criticized the Pentagon's new policy blocking journalists from soliciting unauthorized information as an attempt by Secretary Hegseth to control information flow and increase opacity. 915-930 Colonel McCausland Discusses Postponed Budapest Summit, Gaza Ceasefire Instability, and Pentagon Information Control Jeff McCausland with John Batchelor Colonel McCausland explained the Budapest summit postponement, noting Putin demands Ukrainian surrender before a ceasefire. He considered Tomahawks an escalation of firepower, but not a game-changer, with delivery now on hold. McCausland described the Gaza ceasefire as precarious, lacking discussion or plan for Hamas disarmament, which he views as the necessary "red line" for stability. He criticized the Pentagon's new policy blocking journalists from soliciting unauthorized information as an attempt by Secretary Hegseth to control information flow and increase opacity. 930-945 Steve Yates Discusses Australia-US Alliance Strength and Political Turmoil Affecting APEC Summit Steve Yates with John Batchelor Steve Yates confirmed the Trump-Albanese meeting was a net positive, accelerating AUKUS and securing a rare earth deal that addresses supply access. He noted the political turmoil in Beijing, highlighted by uncertainty over Xi Jinping's APEC attendance. This instability is abnormal and reinforces China's unstable political foundation. Yates suggested this instability should push allies to rely more on the first island chain as a reliable balance. 945-1000 Rick Fisher Reports on China's Reusable Rocket Deluge and US Moon Race Political Pressures Rick Fisher with John Batchelor Rick Fisher reported that China has 27 reusable space launch vehicle projects underway, predicting a "deluge" of cheap space services to compete with SpaceX. He noted that President Trump is alarmed that China may win the second race to the moon. Trump pressured NASA Administrator Duffy to open the Human Landing System competition to Blue Origin, signaling that politics and winning the race are paramount, regardless of competitor viability. China's first reusable booster test could occur before year-end. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Colonel Newsham Discusses Promising US-Australia Rare Earth Deal and Canberra's Dual Strategy Toward China Grant Newsham with John Batchelor Colonel Grant Newsham discussed the promising US-Australia rare earth deal, noting Australia has vast mining capabilities to provide an alternative to China's dominance. China's threat to use export controls might spur free nations to develop alternative supply chains. Newsham noted Canberra is playing a "neat trick," maintaining a firm defense alliance with the US (AUKUS) while maintaining profitable economic ties with Beijing, reflecting an underlying "softness" toward China. 1015-1030 Colonel Newsham Discusses Promising US-Australia Rare Earth Deal and Canberra's Dual Strategy Toward China Grant Newsham with John Batchelor Colonel Grant Newsham discussed the promising US-Australia rare earth deal, noting Australia has vast mining capabilities to provide an alternative to China's dominance. China's threat to use export controls might spur free nations to develop alternative supply chains. Newsham noted Canberra is playing a "neat trick," maintaining a firm defense alliance with the US (AUKUS) while maintaining profitable economic ties with Beijing, reflecting an underlying "softness" toward China. 1030-1045 China's Property Crisis, Deflation, and Structural Obstacles to Consumption Anne Stevenson-Yang with John Batchelor Anne Stevenson-Yang discussed how the persistent property crater has severely dragged down fixed asset investment. Beijing aims to boost the economy via consumption, but the Chinese system is structurally built to communicate only with producers, not average consumers. Furthermore, the deflationary environment encourages people to delay purchases, waiting for lower prices. She views the Five-Year Plans mainly as an "amazing relic" used internally to motivate the sprawling government bureaucracies. 1045-1100 General Zhang Youxia Allegedly Leads PLA Purges Amid Internal CCP Power Struggle General Blaine Holt with John Batchelor General Blaine Holt reported that the purge of nine flag officers was allegedly executed by General Zhang Youxia, not Xi Jinping. Zhang, a top general, began the purges out of fear of becoming a target himself, indicating an internal "civil war" within the CCP factions opposing Xi. Zhang has secured elite military units loyal to him and the People's Liberation Army (PLA), rather than solely the Party, stabilizing the military amidst the turmoil. Zhang's life is at risk if Xi prevails.THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Peter Berkowitz Analyzes Precarious Gaza Ceasefire and Deep Internal Political Tensions in Israel Peter Berkowitz with John Batchelor Peter Berkowitz stated the Gaza ceasefire is precarious and phase one is incomplete until all deceased hostages' remains are returned, aligning with Israeli public and governmental sentiment. Hamas may be stalling negotiations to rearm. Berkowitz noted sharp internal tensions in Israel, driven by opposition to Netanyahu, resentment over judicial reform, and economic exhaustion from military service. He finds it unlikely that the peace plan, which requires Hamas disarmament, will be fully realized. 1115-1130 Peter Berkowitz Analyzes Precarious Gaza Ceasefire and Deep Internal Political Tensions in Israel Peter Berkowitz with John Batchelor Peter Berkowitz stated the Gaza ceasefire is precarious and phase one is incomplete until all deceased hostages' remains are returned, aligning with Israeli public and governmental sentiment. Hamas may be stalling negotiations to rearm. Berkowitz noted sharp internal tensions in Israel, driven by opposition to Netanyahu, resentment over judicial reform, and economic exhaustion from military service. He finds it unlikely that the peace plan, which requires Hamas disarmament, will be fully realized. 1130-1145 GOP Voters Found More Moderate on Fiscal Issues and Driven by Cultural Anti-Progressivism, According to New Analysis Ryan Streeter with John Batchelor Ryan Streeter discussed findings showing Republican voters are more moderate than portrayed, especially on entitlement cuts. They prioritize a healthy economy and law and order. Isolationism is not prominent, though they oppose excessive foreign spending. MAGA Republicanism is defined primarily by cultural issues, like anti-progressivism and concern over immigration, often outweighing economic policies like tariffs. Streeter concludes that rank and file voters are not as radical as national politics suggest. 1145-1200 GOP Voters Found More Moderate on Fiscal Issues and Driven by Cultural Anti-Progressivism, According to New Analysis Ryan Streeter with John Batchelor Ryan Streeter discussed findings showing Republican voters are more moderate than portrayed, especially on entitlement cuts. They prioritize a healthy economy and law and order. Isolationism is not prominent, though they oppose excessive foreign spending. MAGA Republicanism is defined primarily by cultural issues, like anti-progressivism and concern over immigration, often outweighing economic policies like tariffs. Streeter concludes that rank and file voters are not as radical as national politics suggest. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Simon Constable Reports on Rising Commodity Prices Driven by Data Center Demand and European Political Turmoil Simon Constable with John Batchelor Simon Constable reported significant commodity price increases (copper up 14%, gold up 48%), driven by demand for data centers and AI. He criticized European reluctance to build needed data centers, stressing their necessity for the digital future. Constable noted President Macron fears Marine Le Pen's National Rally due to growing support stemming from concerns over unfettered immigration. He also criticized the UK Labour party's plan to tax professionals like dentists and doctors, predicting they will leave the country. 1215-1230 Simon Constable Reports on Rising Commodity Prices Driven by Data Center Demand and European Political Turmoil Simon Constable with John Batchelor Simon Constable reported significant commodity price increases (copper up 14%, gold up 48%), driven by demand for data centers and AI. He criticized European reluctance to build needed data centers, stressing their necessity for the digital future. Constable noted President Macron fears Marine Le Pen's National Rally due to growing support stemming from concerns over unfettered immigration. He also criticized the UK Labour party's plan to tax professionals like dentists and doctors, predicting they will leave the country. 1230-1245 Bob Zimmerman Criticizes NASA's Artemis Lunar Program as a "Management Disaster" Focused on Beating China Bob Zimmerman with John Batchelor Bob Zimmerman criticized NASA interim administrator Sean Duffy for focusing on SpaceX being "behind schedule," distracting from NASA's own delay of the Artemis mission to 2028 at the earliest. He called the Artemis plan an "unwieldy management disaster" designed haphazardly to give the SLS rocket a mission. The political push to beat China by 2028 creates a dangerous "one-time stunt." Zimmerman argues the private sector (SpaceX) is the real future of US space endeavors. 1245-100 AM Bob Zimmerman Criticizes NASA's Artemis Lunar Program as a "Management Disaster" Focused on Beating China Bob Zimmerman with John Batchelor Bob Zimmerman criticized NASA interim administrator Sean Duffy for focusing on SpaceX being "behind schedule," distracting from NASA's own delay of the Artemis mission to 2028 at the earliest. He called the Artemis plan an "unwieldy management disaster" designed haphazardly to give the SLS rocket a mission. The political push to beat China by 2028 creates a dangerous "one-time stunt." Zimmerman argues the private sector (SpaceX) is the real future of US space endeavors.

China's Property Crisis, Deflation, and Structural Obstacles to Consumption Anne Stevenson-Yang with John Batchelor Anne Stevenson-Yang discussed how the persistent property crater has severely dragged down fixed asset investment. Beijing aims to boost the economy via consumption, but the Chinese system is structurally built to communicate only with producers, not average consumers. Furthermore, the deflationary environment encourages people to delay purchases, waiting for lower prices. She views the Five-Year Plans mainly as an "amazing relic" used internally to motivate the sprawling government bureaucracies. 1850

After a truly epic run, precious metals are now getting pounded. Both gold and silver are down the past few days for a couple of reasons, not that this is a surprise. In fact, I told you just six days ago this was the most likely short run path for the metals. So, what's driving the selloff and does it change the long run outlook for either?  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dr. Joe Salerno shows how market‑led falling prices spread growth gains even when nominal wages don't change. The takeaway: don't fear natural deflation—fear policies that target permanent inflation.Sponsored by Murray and Florence Sabrin.Recorded at the Mises Supporters Summit in Delray Beach, Florida, on October 17, 2025.

There was action yet again at the Fed's repo window today. A few more billion borrowed. But that's now the fourth time over the last five trading days. These are more signs of tightening monetary conditions and if this does continue it will lead to the next QE from the Fed. The word that keeps coming up the past few months is escalation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why is copper-to-gold so ugly and thoroughly deflationary? What's happening right now inside China is one key part of it. After a small artificial rebound earlier this - where have we heard that before - Chinese bank lending has fallen even more sharply this summer adding yet another layer to the tremendous deceleration we keep seeing across China this summer. Retail sales fell yet again and investment is crashing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Ready to make your week count? Subscribe to One Big Weekly Theme today. You can sample the service or sign up and get started straight away. https//:eurodollaruniversity.substack.comCNN China expels two top generals from Communist Party in anti-corruption crackdownhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/10/17/china/china-communist-party-expels-military-leaders-intl-hnkBloomberg China's Lopsided Growth Puts Spotlight on Xi's Five-Year Planhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-20/chinese-economic-slowdown-worsens-with-growth-weakest-in-a-yearhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even I am surprised at how quickly this has escalated. We got a big-time warning from the oil market earlier in the week. Whenever we see these things show up, usually there's a little back and forth, in and out, the thing starts out as a little blip and stays that way for awhile. Then, maybe, you get a bigger move much later on. Not this time. The oil curve blew way past all of that in just a few days.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Two US regional banks rocked the markets with more potential loan losses tied to private credit and shadow banks. But it is NOT really about them or the scale of those defaults; they are relatively tiny. It's what continues to be uncovered, the common COLLATERAL thread in every single one so far. Combined with a very precarious macroeconomic and monetary background, it's explosive. They are encompassed by the secrets behind the financial and monetary signals we continue to highlight and expose here at EDU. Watch our most recent webinar replay to start seeing the truth hiding in plain sight - and just in time, in case you haven't noticed. Stick around to the end for the best deal we've offered on Eurodollar University's full control room of subscriptions. https://youtube.com/live/vnuKXWiIVac?feature=sharehttps://eurodollar.university/webinar-offerCODE: 2025-OCT-WEBINAR-DDA3--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Silver has gone absolutely vertical, even more than gold has. There is an historic squeeze going on in the silver market, centered in London. It started out driven by gold but the whole thing has been upended by imbalances in supply and the locations from where demand is coming from. How far can silver go? What's really going on with it? And what should we expect next? Why does the matter for a whole lot more than the precious metals market? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------------The secrets behind these and other financial and monetary signals. Watch our most recent webinar replay to start seeing the truth hiding in plain sight - and just in time, in case you haven't noticed. Stick around to the end for the best deal we've offered on Eurodollar University's full control room of subscriptions. https://youtube.com/live/vnuKXWiIVac?feature=share--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Silver Traders Rush Bars to London as Historic Squeeze Rocks Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-11/silver-squeeze-evokes-hunt-brothers-as-banks-rush-bars-to-londonBloomberg Kotak Silver Fund Halts New Investments as Premium Widenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/india-s-kotak-silver-fund-halts-new-investments-as-premium-growshttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

HEADLINE: China's Economic Slowdown, Deflation, and the Spectre of Japanification GUEST NAME: Andrew Collier SUMMARY: Andrew Collier discusses China's economic woes, characterized by persistent deflation, with the CPI down 0.3% (6 out of 9 months in the red) and the PPI down for 36 straight months. This environment raises concerns about "Japanification"—a multi-decade slowdown after a property crash. Major structural changes to stimulate consumer consumption are unlikely at the upcoming Communist Party plenum, as the system favors state investment. The property market collapse means foreign investment is leaving, and Collier suggests the economy may not bottom until 2027 or 2028. 1890 PEKING

SHOW SCHEDULE 10-15--25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1964 ATLANTIC CITYCONVENTION HALL THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT CONGRESS.... 10-15--25 FIRST HOUR 9-915 HEADLINE: Obamacare Subsidies Trigger Government Shutdown Debate GUEST NAME: Michael Toth SUMMARY: Michael Toth explains that the current government shutdown debate centers on extending two expensive Biden-era Obamacare subsidies. These changes allow individuals earning over 400% of the federal poverty line to receive subsidies and provide 100% coverage for the near-poor. The original Obamacare cross-subsidy structure failed because young, healthy individuals found premiums too high. Toth advocates deregulation, such as allowing insurance companies to charge lower, risk-adjusted rates and enabling single business owners to use Professional Employer Organizations (PEOs) for cheaper coverage. 915-930 HEADLINE: Obamacare Subsidies Trigger Government Shutdown Debate GUEST NAME: Michael Toth SUMMARY: Michael Toth explains that the current government shutdown debate centers on extending two expensive Biden-era Obamacare subsidies. These changes allow individuals earning over 400% of the federal poverty line to receive subsidies and provide 100% coverage for the near-poor. The original Obamacare cross-subsidy structure failed because young, healthy individuals found premiums too high. Toth advocates deregulation, such as allowing insurance companies to charge lower, risk-adjusted rates and enabling single business owners to use Professional Employer Organizations (PEOs) for cheaper coverage. 930-945 HEADLINE: Hamas, Hostages, and Middle East Turmoil: Challenges to the Trump Ceasefire Plan GUEST NAME:Jonathan Schanzer SUMMARY: Jonathan Schanzer discusses complications in the Trump ceasefire plan, including Hamas delaying the return of deceased hostages to maintain leverage. The released prisoners, including potential Hamas leaders, raise concerns about where the organization's center of gravity will shift if they are deported to places like Turkey or Qatar. Schanzer views Turkey, an autocratic supporter of Hamas, as a problematic guarantor of the ceasefire. Internationally, Iran continues its nuclear program despite snapback sanctions, and al-Sharaa is meeting with Putin regarding Russian assets in Syria. 945-1000 HEADLINE: Hamas, Hostages, and Middle East Turmoil: Challenges to the Trump Ceasefire Plan GUEST NAME:Jonathan Schanzer SUMMARY: Jonathan Schanzer discusses complications in the Trump ceasefire plan, including Hamas delaying the return of deceased hostages to maintain leverage. The released prisoners, including potential Hamas leaders, raise concerns about where the organization's center of gravity will shift if they are deported to places like Turkey or Qatar. Schanzer views Turkey, an autocratic supporter of Hamas, as a problematic guarantor of the ceasefire. Internationally, Iran continues its nuclear program despite snapback sanctions, and al-Sharaa is meeting with Putin regarding Russian assets in Syria. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 HEADLINE: China's Predicament in the Middle East and Domestic Economic Instability GUEST NAME: General Blaine Holt SUMMARY: General Blaine Holt analyzes China's strategic challenges, noting Beijing is concerned about losing access to critical oil and gas resources as US leadership advances the Abraham Accords. China's previous regional deals, like the Saudi-Iran agreement, lacked substance compared to US business commitments. Holt suggests internal pressures might lead Iran toward the Accords. Domestically, China faces accelerating deflation and uncertainty regarding Xi Jinping's leadership due to four competing factions before the fourth plenum. 1015-1030 HEADLINE: South Korea's Descent into Authoritarianism and Persecution of Opposition GUEST NAME: Morse Tan SUMMARY: Morse Tan argues that South Korea is moving toward a "rising communist dictatorship" that oppresses political and religious figures. The indictment of the Unification Church leader and the targeting of the rightful President Yoon exemplify this trend. This persecution serves as an intimidation campaign, demonstrating the regime's disregard for the populace. Tan recommends the US implement active measures, including sanctions relating to a coup d'état and visa sanctions, while also pressing for greater military cooperation. 1030-1045 HEADLINE: Russian War Economy Stalls as Oil Prices Decline and Sanctions Bite GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: Michael Bernstam reports that the Russian economy is struggling as global oil prices decline and sanctions increase transportation costs, leading to a $13 to $14 per barrel discount on Russian oil. The "military Keynesianism" economy is exhausted, resulting in staff cuts across industrial sectors. Forecasts indicate contraction in late 2025 and 2026, with the IMF lowering its growth projection for 2025 to 0.6%. Russia is avoiding sanctions by routing payments through neighbors like Kyrgyzstan, who have become major financial hubs. 1045-1100 HEADLINE: Lessons from the Swiss National Bank: Risk-Taking, Exchange Rates, and Fiscal Responsibility GUEST NAME: John Cochrane SUMMARY: Economist John Cochrane analyzes the Swiss National Bank (SNB), noting it differs greatly from the US Federal Reserve by investing heavily in foreign stocks and bonds to manage the Swiss franc's exchange rate. The SNB's massive balance sheet carries risks accepted by Swiss taxpayers and the Cantons. Switzerland, being fiscally responsible (running no budget deficits), finds central banking easier. Cochrane advises that the US Fed should not be buying stocks or venturing into fiscal policy. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 HEADLINE: China Retaliates Against Dutch Chipmaker Seizure Amid European Fragmentation GUEST NAME:Theresa Fallon SUMMARY: Theresa Fallon discusses China imposing export controls on Nexperia after the Dutch government seized control of the chipmaker, which was owned by China's Wingtech. The Dutch acted due to fears the Chinese owner would strip the technology and equipment, despite Nexperia producing low-quality chips for cars. Fallon notes Europe needs a better chip policy but struggles to speak with one voice, as fragmented policy allows China to drive wedges and weaken the EU. 1115-1130 HEADLINE: China's Economic Slowdown, Deflation, and the Spectre of Japanification GUEST NAME: Andrew Collier SUMMARY: Andrew Collier discusses China's economic woes, characterized by persistent deflation, with the CPI down 0.3% (6 out of 9 months in the red) and the PPI down for 36 straight months. This environment raises concerns about "Japanification"—a multi-decade slowdown after a property crash. Major structural changes to stimulate consumer consumption are unlikely at the upcoming Communist Party plenum, as the system favors state investment. The property market collapse means foreign investment is leaving, and Collier suggests the economy may not bottom until 2027 or 2028. 1130-1145 HEADLINE: SpaceX Starship Success, Private Space Dominance, and Government Inaction GUEST NAME: Bob Zimmerman SUMMARY: Bob Zimmerman describes SpaceX's Starship Super Heavy 11th test flight as "remarkable," highlighting successful booster reuse and controlled re-entry despite missing tiles. He asserts that private enterprise, like SpaceX, runs the "real American space program" aimed at Mars colonization, outpacing government efforts. In contrast, European projects like Callisto, proposed in 2015, demonstrate government "inaction." JPL is also laying off staff following the cancellation of the Mars sample return project, forcing organizations like Lowell Observatory to seek private funding. 1145-1200 HEADLINE: SpaceX Starship Success, Private Space Dominance, and Government Inaction GUEST NAME: Bob Zimmerman SUMMARY: Bob Zimmerman describes SpaceX's Starship Super Heavy 11th test flight as "remarkable," highlighting successful booster reuse and controlled re-entry despite missing tiles. He asserts that private enterprise, like SpaceX, runs the "real American space program" aimed at Mars colonization, outpacing government efforts. In contrast, European projects like Callisto, proposed in 2015, demonstrate government "inaction." JPL is also laying off staff following the cancellation of the Mars sample return project, forcing organizations like Lowell Observatory to seek private funding. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 HEADLINE: Commodity Market Trends and UK's Lack of Risk Appetite for AI Innovation GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: Simon Constable notes that data center expansion for AI is increasing prices for copper (up 15%) and steel (up 14%). He points out that the UK lags significantly behind the US in building new AI data centers (170 vs. 5,000+) due to a lack of risk appetite, insufficient wealth, and poor marketing of new ideas. Separately, Constable discusses the collapse of a UK China spying trial because the prior government failed to officially classify China as a national security threat during the alleged offenses. 1215-1230 HEADLINE: Commodity Market Trends and UK's Lack of Risk Appetite for AI Innovation GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: Simon Constable notes that data center expansion for AI is increasing prices for copper (up 15%) and steel (up 14%). He points out that the UK lags significantly behind the US in building new AI data centers (170 vs. 5,000+) due to a lack of risk appetite, insufficient wealth, and poor marketing of new ideas. Separately, Constable discusses the collapse of a UK China spying trial because the prior government failed to officially classify China as a national security threat during the alleged offenses. 1230-1245 HEADLINE: AI Regulation Debate: Premature Laws vs. Emerging Norms GUEST NAME: Kevin Frazier SUMMARY: Kevin Frazier critiques the legislative rush to regulate AI, arguing that developing norms might be more effective than premature laws. He notes that bills like California's AB 1047, which demands factual accuracy, fundamentally misunderstand AI's generative nature. Imposing vague standards, as seen in New York's RAISE Act, risks chilling innovation and preventing widespread benefits, like affordable legal or therapy tools. Frazier emphasizes that AI policy should be grounded in empirical data rather than speculative fears. 1245-100 AM HEADLINE: AI Regulation Debate: Premature Laws vs. Emerging Norms GUEST NAME: Kevin Frazier SUMMARY: Kevin Frazier critiques the legislative rush to regulate AI, arguing that developing norms might be more effective than premature laws. He notes that bills like California's AB 1047, which demands factual accuracy, fundamentally misunderstand AI's generative nature. Imposing vague standards, as seen in New York's RAISE Act, risks chilling innovation and preventing widespread benefits, like affordable legal or therapy tools. Frazier emphasizes that AI policy should be grounded in empirical data rather than speculative fears.

With one quote, JP Morgan's CEO Jamie Dimon created a mini-firestorm even if in this case, anyway, he was just saying what everyone is thinking. On JPMs earnings call yesterday, Dimon reportedly said, “I probably shouldn't say this but when you see one cockroach there are probably more” in relation to the bankruptcies that have popped up recently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Powell Signals Another Cut as Weak Hiring Pressures Unemploymenthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-14/powell-signals-another-cut-as-weak-hiring-pressures-unemploymentBloomberg Private Credit Investors Sour on Funds as Rate Cuts Hurt Payoutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/private-credit-investors-sour-on-funds-as-rate-cuts-hurt-payoutsBloomberg Blue Owl Chief Points to Bank Loans for Dimon Cockroach Warninghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/blue-owl-chief-says-look-to-banks-loans-for-dimon-s-cockroacheshttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

PREVIEW China's Economic Slowdown, Deflation, and the Spectre of Japanification. Guest: Andrew Collier. Andrew Collier discusses China's economic woes, characterized by persistent deflation, with the CPI down 0.3% (6 out of 9 months in the red) and the PPI down for 36 straight months. This environment raises concerns about "Japanification"—a multi-decade slowdown after a property crash. Major structural changes to stimulate consumer consumption are unlikely at the upcoming Communist Party plenum, as the system favors state investment. The property market collapse means foreign investment is leaving, and Collier suggests the economy may not bottom until 2027 or 2028. 1950 PEKING

A big signal we - and the whole market - have been waiting for was triggered. Better still, there is no ambiguity with this one. The oil curve has flipped for the first time in years in what is a very clear downturn signal. They call it a supply glut when there is no mistaking it's all about demand.

It's not just the $2.3 billion that allegedly simply vanished; it's how and maybe most important of all, why. Second guessing collateral this way does not end well. Especially since this does not appear to be a one-off case of embezzlement and outright theft, rather a relatively large company which made some bad choices pressured into doing so by the economy and given the opportunity by less than ideal protections and security. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Reuters First Brands' creditor says $2.3 billion 'simply vanished', seeks probehttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/first-brands-creditor-says-23-billion-simply-vanished-seeks-probe-2025-10-09/Bloomberg Aegon's Junk Debt Chief Braces for Credit Pain as Cracks Spreadhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/aegon-s-junk-debt-chief-braces-for-credit-pain-as-cracks-spreadBloomberg Corporate Blowups Are Rattling Investors in Emerging Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-12/corporate-blowups-are-rattling-investors-in-emerging-marketsUnited Capitalhttps://ucfunding.com/Triumph https://triumph.io/Onset Financialhttps://www.onsetfinancial.com/case-studies/aircraft-parts-supplier-50mhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Crytpo saw its biggest liquidations in history Friday when Trade Wars 2.2 flared up. Commodities were also pounded, bonds bigtime bid, even stocks sent significantly lower. Tariffs aren't really the issue here, either, as a confluence of negatives have been sapping sentiment for the past few weeks.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisThis is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The growing macro bust in housing has become serious enough even the Fed is letting the public know officials are talking about it. I keep telling you that when central bankers see it too, you know it isn't good. The Federal Reserve's policymaking body, the FOMC, released the minutes of its meeting last month, the one where policymakers decided to dip back into the Pringles can with a single twenty five-bp rate cut. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisThis is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Germany's auto production absolutely crashed, falling by almost 20% in just a single month. This becomes the latest stark warning about the direction of the global economy coming from the car business. And that report on production was corroborated by Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Ferrari, all of them reporting results and forecasts this week that have sent their stocks plunging. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg German Industrial Slump Deepens on Auto Production Plungehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-08/german-industrial-slump-deepens-with-shutdown-in-auto-productionBloomberg German Exports Unexpectedly Drop as Shipments to the US Sinkhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/german-exports-unexpectedly-drop-as-shipments-to-the-us-sinkDPA Germany's Mercedes-Benz sees sales plunge 12% in third quarterhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/germanys-mercedes-benz-sees-sales-131348096.htmlBloomberg Porsche's Sinking Sales Deepen German Automotive Malaisehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/porsche-s-sinking-sales-deepen-german-automotive-malaiseBloomberg BMW Drops After Forecast Cut on China Slump, Tariff Costshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-07/bmw-lowers-annual-guidance-on-weak-china-sales-tariff-costsBMWblog BMW Admits Tariffs And Sales Slump In China Are Hurting Profitshttps://www.bmwblog.com/2025/10/07/bmw-admits-tariffs-sales-slump-china-hurting-profits/Dow Jones Ferrari Shares Plunge as Long-Term Targets Disappoint — Updatehttps://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202510094181/ferrari-shares-plunge-as-long-term-targets-disappoint-updatehttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

HEADLINE: China's Economic Contradictions: Deflation and Consumer Wariness Undermine GDP Growth ClaimsGUEST NAME: Fraser Howie SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Fraser Howie about China facing severe economic contradictions despite high World Bank forecasts. Deflation remains rampant with frequently negative CPI and PPI figures. Consumer wariness and high youth unemployment at one in seven persist throughout the economy. The GDP growth figure is viewed as untrustworthy, manufactured through debt in a command economy. Decreased container ship arrivals point to limited actual growth, exacerbated by higher US tariffs. Economic reforms appear unlikely as centralization under Xi Jinping continues.

CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1900 KYIV THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS THAT CONGRESS IS CAPABLE OF CUTTING SPENDING..... 10-8-25 FIRST HOUR 9-915 HEADLINE: Arab Intellectuals Fail Palestinians by Prioritizing Populism and Victimhood Narrative in Gaza ConflictGUEST NAME: Hussain Abdul-Hussain SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Hussain Abdul-Hussain about Hamas utilizing the power of victimhood to justify atrocities and vilify opponents. Arab and Muslim intellectuals have failed Palestinians by prioritizing populism over introspection and self-critique. Regional actors like Egypt prioritize populist narratives over national interests, exemplified by refusing to open the Sinai border despite humanitarian suffering. The key recommendation is challenging the narrative and fostering a reliable, mature Palestinian government. 915-930 HEADLINE: Arab Intellectuals Fail Palestinians by Prioritizing Populism and Victimhood Narrative in Gaza ConflictGUEST NAME: Hussain Abdul-Hussain SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Hussain Abdul-Hussain about Hamas utilizing the power of victimhood to justify atrocities and vilify opponents. Arab and Muslim intellectuals have failed Palestinians by prioritizing populism over introspection and self-critique. Regional actors like Egypt prioritize populist narratives over national interests, exemplified by refusing to open the Sinai border despite humanitarian suffering. The key recommendation is challenging the narrative and fostering a reliable, mature Palestinian government. 930-945 HEADLINE: Russian Oil and Gas Revenue Squeezed as Prices Drop, Turkey Shifts to US LNG, and China Delays Pipeline GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Michael Bernstam about Russia facing severe budget pressure due to declining oil prices projected to reach $40 per barrel for Russian oil and global oil surplus. Turkey, a major buyer, is abandoning Russian natural gas after signing a 20-year LNG contract with the US. Russia refuses Indian rupee payments, demanding Chinese renminbi, which India lacks. China has stalled the major Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project indefinitely. Russia utilizes stablecoin and Bitcoin via Central Asian banks to circumvent payment sanctions. 945-1000 HEADLINE: UN Snapback Sanctions Imposed on Iran; Debate Over Nuclear Dismantlement and Enrichment GUEST NAME: Andrea Stricker SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Andrea Stricker about the US and Europe securing the snapback of UN sanctions against Iran after 2015 JCPOA restrictions expired. Iran's non-compliance with inspection demands triggered these severe sanctions. The discussion covers the need for full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, including both enrichment and weaponization capabilities, to avoid future conflict. Concerns persist about Iran potentially retaining enrichment capabilities through low-level enrichment proposals and its continued non-cooperation with IAEA inspections. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 HEADLINE: Commodities Rise and UK Flag Controversy: French Weather, Market Trends, and British Politics GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Simon Constable about key commodities like copper up 16% and steel up 15% signaling strong economic demand. Coffee prices remain very high at 52% increase. The conversation addresses French political turmoil, though non-citizens cannot vote. In the UK, the St. George's flag has become highly controversial, viewed by some as associated with racism, unlike the Union Jack. This flag controversy reflects a desire among segments like the white working class to assert English identity. 1015-1030 HEADLINE: Commodities Rise and UK Flag Controversy: French Weather, Market Trends, and British Politics GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Simon Constable about key commodities like copper up 16% and steel up 15% signaling strong economic demand. Coffee prices remain very high at 52% increase. The conversation addresses French political turmoil, though non-citizens cannot vote. In the UK, the St. George's flag has become highly controversial, viewed by some as associated with racism, unlike the Union Jack. This flag controversy reflects a desire among segments like the white working class to assert English identity. 1030-1045 HEADLINE: China's Economic Contradictions: Deflation and Consumer Wariness Undermine GDP Growth ClaimsGUEST NAME: Fraser Howie SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Fraser Howie about China facing severe economic contradictions despite high World Bank forecasts. Deflation remains rampant with frequently negative CPI and PPI figures. Consumer wariness and high youth unemployment at one in seven persist throughout the economy. The GDP growth figure is viewed as untrustworthy, manufactured through debt in a command economy. Decreased container ship arrivals point to limited actual growth, exacerbated by higher US tariffs. Economic reforms appear unlikely as centralization under Xi Jinping continues. 1045-1100 HEADLINE: Takaichi Sanae Elected LDP Head, Faces Coalition Challenge to Become Japan's First Female Prime Minister GUEST NAME: Lance Gatling SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Lance Gatling about Takaichi Sanae being elected head of Japan's LDP, positioning her to potentially become the first female Prime Minister. A conservative figure, she supports visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine. Her immediate challenge is forming a majority coalition, as the junior partner Komeito disagrees with her conservative positions and social policies. President Trump praised her election, signaling potential for strong bilateral relations. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 VHEADLINE: DeepSeek AI: Chinese LLM Performance and Security Flaws Revealed Amid Semiconductor Export Circumvention GUEST NAME: Jack Burnham SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Jack Burnham about competition in Large Language Models between the US and China's DeepSeek. A NIST study found US models superior in software engineering, though DeepSeek showed parity in scientific questions. Critically, DeepSeek models exhibited significant security flaws. China attempts to circumvent US export controls on GPUs by smuggling and using cloud computing centers in Southeast Asia. Additionally, China aims to dominate global telecommunications through control of supply chains and legal mechanisms granting the CCP access to firm data.E V 1115-1130 HEADLINE: DeepSeek AI: Chinese LLM Performance and Security Flaws Revealed Amid Semiconductor Export Circumvention GUEST NAME: Jack Burnham SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Jack Burnham about competition in Large Language Models between the US and China's DeepSeek. A NIST study found US models superior in software engineering, though DeepSeek showed parity in scientific questions. Critically, DeepSeek models exhibited significant security flaws. China attempts to circumvent US export controls on GPUs by smuggling and using cloud computing centers in Southeast Asia. Additionally, China aims to dominate global telecommunications through control of supply chains and legal mechanisms granting the CCP access to firm data. 1130-1145 HEADLINE: Taiwanese Influencer Charged for Threatening President; Mainland Chinese Influence Tactics ExposedGUEST NAME: Mark Simon SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Mark Simon about internet personality Holger Chen under investigation in Taiwan for calling for President William Lai's decapitation. This highlights mainland Chinese influence operations utilizing influencers who push themes of military threat and Chinese greatness. Chen is suspected of having a mainland-affiliated paymaster due to lack of local commercial support. Taiwan's population primarily identifies as Taiwanese and is unnerved by constant military threats. A key propaganda goal is convincing Taiwan that the US will not intervene. 1145-1200 HEADLINE: Sentinel ICBM Modernization is Critical and Cost-Effective Deterrent Against Great Power CompetitionGUEST NAME: Peter Huessy SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Peter Huessy about the Sentinel program replacing aging 55-year-old Minuteman ICBMs, aiming for lower operating costs and improved capabilities. Cost overruns stem from necessary infrastructure upgrades, including replacing thousands of miles of digital command and control cabling and building new silos. Maintaining the ICBM deterrent is financially and strategically crucial, saving hundreds of billions compared to relying solely on submarines. The need for modernization reflects the end of the post-Cold War "holiday from history," requiring rebuilding against threats from China and Russia. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 HEADLINE: Supreme Court Battles Over Presidential Impoundment Authority and the Separation of Powers GUEST NAME: Josh Blackman SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Josh Blackman about Supreme Court eras focusing on the separation of powers. Currently, the court is addressing presidential impoundment—the executive's authority to withhold appropriated funds. Earlier rulings, particularly 1975's Train v. City of New York, constrained this power. The Roberts Court appears sympathetic to reclaiming presidential authority lost during the Nixon era. The outcome of this ongoing litigation will determine the proper balance between executive and legislative branches. 1215-1230 HEADLINE: Supreme Court Battles Over Presidential Impoundment Authority and the Separation of Powers GUEST NAME: Josh Blackman SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Josh Blackman about Supreme Court eras focusing on the separation of powers. Currently, the court is addressing presidential impoundment—the executive's authority to withhold appropriated funds. Earlier rulings, particularly 1975's Train v. City of New York, constrained this power. The Roberts Court appears sympathetic to reclaiming presidential authority lost during the Nixon era. The outcome of this ongoing litigation will determine the proper balance between executive and legislative branches. 1230-1245 HEADLINE: Space Force Awards Contracts to SpaceX and ULA; Juno Mission Ending, Launch Competition Heats UpGUEST NAME: Bob Zimmerman SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Bob Zimmerman about Space Force awarding over $1 billion in launch contracts to SpaceX for five launches and ULA for two launches, highlighting growing demand for launch services. ULA's non-reusable rockets contrast with SpaceX's cheaper, reusable approach, while Blue Origin continues to lag behind. Other developments include Firefly entering defense contracting through its Scitec acquisition, Rocket Lab securing additional commercial launches, and the likely end of the long-running Juno Jupiter mission due to budget constraints. 1245-100 AM HEADLINE: Space Force Awards Contracts to SpaceX and ULA; Juno Mission Ending, Launch Competition Heats UpGUEST NAME: Bob Zimmerman SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Bob Zimmerman about Space Force awarding over $1 billion in launch contracts to SpaceX for five launches and ULA for two launches, highlighting growing demand for launch services. ULA's non-reusable rockets contrast with SpaceX's cheaper, reusable approach, while Blue Origin continues to lag behind. Other developments include Firefly entering defense contracting through its Scitec acquisition, Rocket Lab securing additional commercial launches, and the likely end of the long-running Juno Jupiter mission due to budget constraints.

Another major central bank panicked today into a 50 bps rate cut, just as markets have been predicting. Not only that, officials at that bank said they're ready for more as ultra-low rates are back within reach already. The Pringles can is far from empty even though central banks around the world would like you to believe they are in a good place. On the contrary, rate cuts really are like pringles – once central bankers start they're finding everywhere they can't stop.    Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisThis is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Joseph Sternberg details China's economic "pickle," resulting from the property bubble collapse and failure of its export-led model. The subsequent glut of goods risks deflation, which Beijing calls "involution," dangerously exacerbating vast debt problems. He notes that Xi Jinping resists market-led "creative destruction," prioritizing state control. Sternberg then analyzes London protests, concluding they are motivated by anti-Semitism and anti-Israel sentiment, irrespective of the Gaza peace talks. PM Starmer calling the protests "unbritish" reflects the government's difficulty in addressing these issues legally 1910 SHIPWRECKED

Joseph Sternberg details China's economic "pickle," resulting from the property bubble collapse and failure of its export-led model. The subsequent glut of goods risks deflation, which Beijing calls "involution," dangerously exacerbating vast debt problems. He notes that Xi Jinping resists market-led "creative destruction," prioritizing state control. Sternberg then analyzes London protests, concluding they are motivated by anti-Semitism and anti-Israel sentiment, irrespective of the Gaza peace talks. PM Starmer calling the protests "unbritish" reflects the government's difficulty in addressing these issues legally 1910 HALIBUT ALASKA

Repo fails have jumped to more than $320 billion as of the final full week in September, the highest since the very start of January. More importantly, the timing. While there are technical reasons for rising fails, they have been increasing since the first week in August, right when the July payroll report came out. There's also been substantial selling of foreign reserve assets, an enormous amount which likewise is timed to the release of payroll estimates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU