Podcasts about Deflation

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Best podcasts about Deflation

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Latest podcast episodes about Deflation

Making Sense
The Housing Crash Just Started in Florida

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2025 21:09


Florida has long been the housing canary in the national real estate coalmine. The situation in the Sunshine State is anything but sunny with prices even outright declining in six key areas. That's just where the downturn is most pronounced right now. The excuses for an increasingly ugly housing market have worn out as the real story is finally being revealed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIf you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Kenny's Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/@KenMcElroyVideo w/Jeffhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDQunoS96X4FRB Vice Chair Michelle Bowman Unintended Policy Shifts and Unexpected Consequenceshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20250623a.htmNAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.8% Increase in Mayhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-0-8-increase-in-mayNewsweek Most Florida Housing Markets Are in Troublehttps://www.newsweek.com/most-florida-housing-markets-trouble-2086554Bloomberg US Spring Homebuying Season Has Its Weakest Start in Five Yearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/us-spring-homebuying-season-has-its-weakest-start-in-five-yearsBloomberg US Home Resales Stay Sluggish on Affordability Constraintshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/us-home-resales-stay-sluggish-on-affordability-constraintsNAR May 2024https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-chief-economist-lawrence-yun-predicts-falling-long-term-interest-rates-rising-existing-homehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
BREAKING: The Fed Just Announced Rate Cuts (What You Must Know)

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2025 18:46


The Fed is going cut...in July. Period. Book it. Conditions have drastically changed and the officials shift is now underway. Rates are going down everywhere, including in DC.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreCNBC Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as Julyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
The Forgotten Depression That Explains What's Happening Today

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2025 20:48


A lot of people, maybe even a majority, find the idea of a two-decade long depression too far-fetched to take seriously. Something like that could never, ever happen. Could it? The problem is most everyone's idea of what a depression is needs to be corrected - another huge piece left missing by Economics. What is a depression? Way too familiar. Eurodollar University's Make It Make CentsNBER Cycle Dateshttps://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractionsNYT Sept 19, 1873https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1873/09/19/issue.htmlDavid A. Wells The Economic Disturbances Since 1873https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Popular_Science_Monthly/Volume_31/July_1887/The_Economic_Disturbances_Since_1873_IHenry George Causes of Business Depressionhttps://bibliotek1.dk/english/by-henry-george/articles-and-speeches/causes-of-business-depressionJM Keynes A Tract on Monetary Reformhttps://ia902905.us.archive.org/35/items/tractonmonetaryr0000keyn/tractonmonetaryr0000keyn.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Europe's Wealthiest Nations Are Quietly Falling Apart

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2025 20:46


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/It's back. No one wanted it, but it's here. Switzerland is first to revisit this dreaded milestone. Others aren't far behind, including now Sweden. The Swedes are facing exactly the sort of rough circumstances that made the Swiss National Bank take this drastic step. And if you think the Fed's dots have separate the FOMC from all this, look no further than one year ago. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSNB Press Release Policy Decisionhttps://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20250619_2CNBC International SNB Martin Schlegelhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY2-lrxsJfMRiksbank Press Release Policy Decisionhttps://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2025/policy-rate-is-cut-to-2-per-cent/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Fed Rate Decision Going Viral, Here's what you MUST Know

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2025 31:26


The FOMC met today and while predictably there was no rate action, neither the dots nor the downgraded economy were the key takeaways. Chair Powell's press conference became the perfect example of what the Fed has become. What would you say you do here?Meanwhile, the markets, the economy and T-bills. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Making Sense
Airlines Just Issued a MASSIVE Warning About Consumer Behavior

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2025 17:08


Struggling airlines grappling with staycations offer insight into consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the government also showed spending on goods (and certain key services) tanked again in May. Even the world's biggest entertainers and their concert tours are suddenly having a hard time. The dreaded pullback keeps getting louder and more confirmed.   Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIATA June 2025https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/Bloomberg Trump Risks US Consumer Discontent With His Tariffs, Poll Showshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-24/trump-risks-us-consumer-discontent-with-his-tariffs-poll-showsBloomberg Concert Ticket Prices Are Falling For the First Time in Yearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-16/concert-ticket-prices-are-falling-for-the-first-time-in-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
This Is What a Banking Crisis Looks Like

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2025 20:29


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Nine months later, China's bazooka has totally flopped. We have all the proof necessary. But the "stimulus" failure is not even the biggest takeaway. The full story behind it starts with banks, detours into massive volatility in Hong Kong, before ending up with zombies. Seriously. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Beijing's Borrowing Drove Credit Growth Despite Weak Loan Demandhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-13/china-credit-expansion-new-loans-rose-less-than-expected-in-mayBloomberg China Forced to Keep Unprofitable Firms Alive to Save Jobs and Avoid Unresthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-12/xi-keeps-china-s-unprofitable-businesses-alive-to-save-jobs-and-avoid-unrestHK HIBORhttps://www.hkab.org.hk/en/rates/hiborhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Oil Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2025 18:27


Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing?Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Everything You've Been Told About the Dollar Is Wrong

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2025 20:53


When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Centshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Geldcast: Geldpolitik mit Fabio Canetg
So kompliziert ist der Prozess zu einer neuen UBS-Bankenregulierung

Geldcast: Geldpolitik mit Fabio Canetg

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2025 8:39


Anfang Juni hat der Bundesrat entschieden, wie er die UBS künftig regulieren will. Doch bis die neuen Regeln vollumfänglich greifen, könnte es noch bis zu zehn Jahre dauern. Warum geht das so lange? | Gleich vier neue Gesetzes- und Verordnungsprozesse hat der Bundesrat angekündigt. Mehrere davon werden erst im nächsten Jahr lanciert. Danach kommen die Vorschläge ins Parlament. Im neuen Geldcast Update bekommen Sie einen Überblick über alle laufenden Verfahren: Wann passiert was? Und wer entscheidet?  www.fabiocanetg.ch Der Schweizer Wirtschaftspodcast mit den hochkarätigsten Gästen! Von Börsen und Bitcoin bis Kaufkraft und Zinsen: Fabio Canetg, Geldökonom und Journalist, diskutiert im Geldcast mit seinen Gästen aus Wirtschaft, Politik und Wissenschaft über deren Werdegang, über die aktuellsten Themen aus der Finanzwelt, über die Geldpolitik der Schweizerischen Nationalbank und über die Wirtschaftspolitik von Bundesrat und Parlament. Ein Podcast über Zentralbanken, Inflation, Schulden und Geld – verständlich und unterhaltsam für alle, die auf dem Laufenden bleiben wollen. Stichworte: UBS, Bankenregulierung, Banken, Eigenkapital, Eigenmittel, Stammhaus.

Geldmeisterin
Big in Japan: Rückenwind durch Aktienrückkäufe & Dividenden

Geldmeisterin

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2025 24:16


Rückkäufe und Dividenden von 3,7 Prozent der Marktkapitalisierung „Japan war in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten kein einfacherKapitalmarkt, geprägt von Rallys die aufgrund der Deflation und mangels Wirtschaftswachstums nie nachhaltig waren. Man musste also entweder schnell handeln und dann wieder raus oder das Ganze aussitzen“, berichtet DWS-Asien- und Japan-Expertin Lilian Haag, Fondsmanagerin globale Aktien, dass sich jetzt zwei Dinge ganz gravierend verändert hätten, „das eine ist, das im Nachgang von Covid endlich wieder Inflation ins System gelangt ist. Auch aufgrund von Rohstoffen und anderen Importen, die einfach global so viel teurer geworden sind, so dass Japan sich diesen inflationären Druck nicht mehr erwehren konnte. Das Zweite was sich strukturell verändert hat ist, dass das erste Mal seit zwanzig Jahren im Zusammenhang mit der Inflation und einem engen Arbeitsmarkt die Gehälter wieder um fünf bis sieben Prozent pro Jahr steigen.“ Das kurbele in Japan einerseits den Konsum an, zum anderen erlaube die Inflation den Unternehmen wieder Preise zu erhöhen.Für Aktionäre seit aber nicht nur die vergleichsweise günstige Bewertung japanischer Unternehmen attraktiv. „Ich glaube das wirklich Entscheidende ist die verbesserte Unternehmensführung,  auf die wir zwanzig Jahre gewartet haben, was höhere Bewertungen rechtfertigt. Aber auch die Ankündigung der Unternehmen im abgelaufenen Fiskaljahr von  Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufen von 3,7 Prozent der Marktkapitalisierung unterstützt die japanische Börse. Diese betragen zum Vergleich in den USA und Europa gerade etwas mehr als zwei Prozent.“Besonders attraktiv findet Lilian Haag aufgrund der steigenden Zinsen in Japan Banktitel. Zum anderen die Aktien von Spieleherstellern und Besitzern von Spiele-Rechten und auch die international tätigen bekannten japanischen Robotik-Firmen.  Mehr zu ihren Japan-Lieblingen in der aktuellen Folge derGELDMEISTERIN. Viel Hörvergnügen wünscht Julia Kistner Über eure Kommentare, Likes und neue Abonnenten würden wir uns freuen, damit noch mehr Kapitalmarktbegeisterte auf den Podcast GELDMEISTERIN aufmerksam werden.Musik- & Soundrechte: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.geldmeisterin.com/index.php/musik-und-soundrechte/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Risikohinweis: Dies sind keine Anlageempfehlungen. Julia Kistner und ihr Podcast-Gast übernehmen keinerlei Haftung.#Investment #Geldanlage #Robotik #Banken #Yen #Zinsen #Spieleproduzenten #Podcast #Aktien #BewertungFoto: DWS 

Making Sense
Is the Bond Market Wrong?

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2025 19:41


Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Global Market Insights - Forex, Futures, Stocks
Week Ahead: Markets brace for central bank barrage amid heightened uncertainty

Global Market Insights - Forex, Futures, Stocks

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2025 8:45


Send us a textFed officials to stand pat as they await further clarity. A dovish BoJ could push rate hike expectations into 2026. Deflation fuels speculation about negative SNB rates. BoE may sound more dovish after disappointing Uk data.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Making Sense
BREAKING: World Bank Issues DIRE Warning to the World

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2025 21:54


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Negative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWorld Bank https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospectshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
This Is What the Collapse Looks Like

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2025 20:50


Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
You Won't Believe What India's Central Bank Just Did

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2025 20:28


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't  heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fell "shock and awe" is necessary to shore it up?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBBC India central bank delivers sharp rate cut as growth and inflation fallhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62vdq6g945oTimes of Indiahttps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/bank-loans-to-nbfcs-slows-sharply/articleshow/121557368.cmshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Something Really Strange Just Happened to the Bond Market

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2025 20:35


ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Communism Exposed:East and West
Business Matters:China's Exports Slow, Deflation Deepens as Tariffs Bite - (June 9) - EpochTV

Communism Exposed:East and West

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2025 13:51


Voice-Over-Text: Pandemic Quotables
Business Matters:China's Exports Slow, Deflation Deepens as Tariffs Bite - (June 9) - EpochTV

Voice-Over-Text: Pandemic Quotables

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2025 13:51


Making Sense
URGENT: The Labor Market Just Broke

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2025 27:09


The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.

Making Sense
While EVERYONE'S Distracted by Trump and Elon, the ECB Just SHOCKED the World

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2025 20:46


Eight times now. The ECB is trying to say it might be one now, yet no one is listening least of all the economy. What everyone really wants to know is, when is the Fed going to follow along? In addition to all these other central banks acting, the latest reports from the Fed itself show that rejoining the global rate race might be a lot closer than everyone thinks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Press Conference Statement https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250605~f00a36ef2b.en.htmlBloomberg US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to Highest Level Since Octoberhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-05/us-initial-jobless-claims-rise-to-highest-level-since-octoberFed Beige Book May 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250604.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
WARNING: ADP Job Numbers Revised MASSIVELY Down

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2025 21:45


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the worst numbers for each in years. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisADP May 2025https://adpemploymentreport.com/Bloomberg US Hiring Cools to Slowest Pace in Two Years, ADP Data Showhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-hiring-falls-to-slowest-pace-in-two-years-adp-data-showBloomberg US Services Activity Contracts for First Time in Nearly a Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-services-activity-contracts-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-yearCNBC Trump says ‘Too Late' Powell must lower interest rates after weak ADP jobs reporthttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/trump-powell-adp-jobs.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
This Is What An Economic Collapse Actually Looks Like

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2025 21:50


Why are swap spreads today as negative as they had been in the worst parts of April? Why is Swiss franc nearly as strong? Consumer prices undershooting and even turning negative offer a bigtime clue. As does the latest from Chinese and American factories. It's not one big thing like April, it's all the little things which keep coming up and piling on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Swiss Inflation Turns Negative for First Time in Four Yearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/swiss-inflation-turns-negative-for-first-time-in-four-yearsBloomberg Euro-Zone Inflation Slows Below 2%, Backing More ECB Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/euro-zone-inflation-slows-below-2-backing-more-ecb-rate-cutsBloomberg RBA's Hunter Sees US Tariffs Dragging on Australian Growth, Jobshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/rba-s-hunter-sees-us-tariffs-dragging-on-australian-growth-jobsOECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.htmlCNBC U.S. growth forecast cut sharply by OECD as Trump tariffs sour global outlookhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/03/us-growth-forecast-cut-further-by-oecd-as-trump-tariffs-sour-outlook.htmlBloomberg China's Private Factory Gauge Plunges to Weakest Since 2022https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/china-private-factory-gauge-unexpectedly-shrinks-after-us-trucehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Oh No, European Banks Are Doing Something REALLY Weird

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2025 21:27


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Several more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threatening on-site visits to get some answers before the economy really takes its turn. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Sweden's Surprise Economic Contraction Boosts Rate Cut Oddshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/swedish-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-weighed-down-by-investmentBloomberg ECB Steps Up Scrutiny of Banks' Exposure to Private Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/ecb-intensifies-scrutiny-of-banks-exposure-to-private-marketshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
BREAKING: Texas Gives MASSIVE Warning Of Consumer Behavior

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2025 19:41


Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. EconomyConsumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it could ripple across the entire U.S. economy in the months ahead.If the U.S. consumer breaks, it's game over.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
The Truth About the Dollar They DON'T Want You to Know

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2025 21:45


Everyone's favorite topic, yet there is little factually correct information floating around the internet or social media. You can't understand the dollar's position until you realize it's actually the eurodollar you're really talking about. And that means reserve currency, and hardly anyone knows what that truly means or involves. Until now. Eurodollar University's Make It Make CentsFOMC Minutes December 1963https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomchistmin19631217.pdfFOMC Transcript Feb 1998https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfBIS 1964 34th Annual Reporthttps://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1964_en.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Lacy Hunt: The Economy Is "Far Worse" Than Wall Street Thinks. Recession Odds Are Actually Over 50%

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2025 73:32


GET THE 3 RESOURCES LACY MENTIONS by signing up for our free Substack at http://thoughtfulmoney.substack.com/It's an especially confusing time for investors.On one hand, the US economy is showing signs of slowing, with a negative growth for Q1 GDP, and mounting evidence that many corporations and consumer households are feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs.On the other hand, FOMO Is returning to the stock market as corporate earnings look solid, tariffs tensions ease somewhat, and optimism over the longer term likely positive impact the Trump Adminstration's business-friendly policies will have on the economy.So, which is more warranted here: optimism or pessimism?For perspective, we have the great fortune today to sit down with one of the greatest living economists, Lacy Hunt, former senior economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and current Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company.Lacy sees Wall Street as dangerously deluded here. In his eyes, the economy is "far worse" than markets are currently expecting.Buckle up.#recession #marketcorrection #economy 0:00 - Deteriorating hard data5:22 - Inventory surge and corporate profits.10:24 - Rising unemployment claims14:10 - Big Beautiful Bill's limited impact22:02 - Debt overhang and economic drag27:11 - Long-term policy optimism31:30 - Money supply's critical role37:03 - Deflation over inflation concerns46:17 - Federal Reserve's delayed action48:04 - Systemic risks and Minsky moment53:00 - Neil Ferguson's empire insights54:03 - Market outlook and bond value1:02:17 - Policy reform for debt control1:06:59 - Defining a rich life1:13:10 - Closing and viewer guidance_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Digitale Optimisten: Perspektiven aus dem Silicon Valley
Unicorn Ideas: Gen Z rebelliert gegen AI, Harvard MBAs sind arbeitslos und neue Geschäftsideen

Digitale Optimisten: Perspektiven aus dem Silicon Valley

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2025 67:36


222 | Samuel und Alex reden über die Tech-Szene und pitchen sich Geschäftsideen. Samuel überrascht mit einer Geschichte über Gen Z - die lässt ihren Flat White stehen und protestiert gegen AI. Alex hat ein Berliner Startup analysiert für die Rubrik "Roast my Geschäftsidee" und die beiden pitchen ihre besten Geschäftsideen der Woche.Mach das 1-minütige Quiz und finde die perfekte Geschäftsidee für dich: digitaleoptimisten.de/quiz.Kapitel:(00:00) Intro(02:30) Deutschland braucht eine neue Infrastruktur(09:18) GenZ rebelliert gegen AI? (ca. 9:00)(21:15) Zerbricht unsere Wirtschaft an AI (ca. 20:00)(27:40) Roast my Geschäftsidee: Endel (ca. 27:00)(43:20) Trend: Startupper übernehmen Mittelständler(54:24) Alex' Geschäftsidee: SaaS Mining(1:00:37) Samuels Geschäftsidee: DT MatchMehr Infos:In dieser Episode von Digitale Optimisten diskutieren Alex Mrozek und Samuel Schneider über die Herausforderungen und Chancen, die Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) und Digitalisierung mit sich bringen. Sie beleuchten die Infrastrukturprobleme in Deutschland, die gesellschaftliche Verantwortung und den Einfluss von KI auf den Arbeitsmarkt und zukünftige Karrieren. Zudem wird die Rolle von Energie und Ressourcen in der Zukunft sowie die wirtschaftlichen Implikationen von KI und Robotik thematisiert. In dieser Episode diskutieren die Gastgeber die potenziellen Auswirkungen von Deflation auf die Gesellschaft und die Rolle von KI in der Zukunft der Arbeit. Sie erkunden, wie KI die Kosten für Dienstleistungen senken könnte und welche Herausforderungen dies für den Arbeitsmarkt mit sich bringt. Anschließend wird eine innovative Geschäftsidee vorgestellt, die KI-generierte Klangwelten bietet, und die Gastgeber analysieren die Vor- und Nachteile dieses Modells sowie die Wettbewerbslandschaft. Schließlich wird die Möglichkeit erörtert, wie solche Technologien im B2B-Bereich eingesetzt werden könnten, um den Mitarbeitern zu helfen, fokussierter zu arbeiten. In dieser Episode diskutieren Samuel und Alex den aktuellen Trend, dass Gründer zunehmend nach Übernahmeobjekten im Mittelstand suchen. Sie beleuchten die Herausforderungen, die mit Unternehmensübernahmen verbunden sind, insbesondere die Bedeutung regionaler Verbindungen und das Verständnis für lokale Märkte. Zudem wird die Problematik der Nachfolge in traditionellen Unternehmen angesprochen. Abschließend präsentieren sie ihre eigenen Geschäftsideen, die sich mit der Optimierung von SaaS-Tools und der Verbindung von technischen Gründern mit BWLern befassen.Keywords:Künstliche Intelligenz, Infrastruktur, Gesellschaftliche Verantwortung, Arbeitsmarkt, Karrieren, Energie, Ressourcen, Wirtschaft, Digitalisierung, Technologie, Deflation, KI, Zukunft der Arbeit, Klangwelten, Geschäftsideen, Produktivität, B2B, Innovation, Technologie, Wirtschaft, Startups, Unternehmensübernahme, Mittelstand, Nachfolgeproblematik, regionale Verbindungen, Geschäftsideen, SaaS, Deep Tech

Making Sense
You Won't Believe What South Korea's Central Bank Just Did

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2025 22:15


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/South Korea had been on the side of the Fed, sticking with interest rates opting to see about trade war "uncertainty" before doing anything. That lasted all of four weeks. The list of central banks able to sit by and watch CPI has thinned down to just the one Mr. Powell runs. And the update to Q1 GDP in the US holds the key as to why.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bank of Korea Flags More Rate Cuts to Come as Tariffs Hit Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bok-cuts-rate-to-cushion-economy-from-tariffs-political-turmoilCNBC Bank of Korea lowers interest rates for the fourth time, flags more cuts aheadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/29/south-korea-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-.htmlChosunBiz Bank of Korea lowers interest rate to 2.50%, signals possibility of further cutshttps://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/05/29/E5KPW2LQYFGPRF5EM5G3RUM4XQ/Bloomberg Banxico Sees Growth of 0.1% This Year, Rules Out Recessionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bank-lending-to-private-credit-funds-swells-145-in-five-yearshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
The Global Economy Just Flipped (Mass Layoffs Have Begun)

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2025 21:18


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Germany. France. New Zealand. Singapore. ECB. Rising unemployment. Falling employment. Lowering interest rates. Technical recession. Historically low territory up next. There is almost no one left in the official world in the same thinking as the Fed as the world more clearly and completely tilts against "inflation."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWSJ Germany's Jobless Numbers Tick Higherhttps://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/germanys-jobless-numbers-tick-higher-27a99b18Le Monde France's great consumption slumphttps://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/10/10/france-s-great-consumption-slump_6728864_19.htmlBloomberg ECB Faces Greater Risk Inflation Will Undershoot 2%, Simkus Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/ecb-faces-greater-risk-inflation-will-undershoot-2-simkus-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Australian Central Bank Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2025 18:17


The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispute-aiding-australian-firmsS&P Global Eurozone PMIs May 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f4672a7ff89744e096c5e9497d2e5362https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Wohlstand für Alle
Ep. 303: Der Smoot-Hawley-Act von 1930 – ein Vorbild für Trump?

Wohlstand für Alle

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2025 46:48


Donald Trumps Zollpolitik wird derzeit gern als erratisch bis irrsinnig beschrieben, aber es gibt ein historisches Vorbild. Schon einmal setzte die US-Regierung massiv auf Zölle: 1930 unterschrieb Präsident Herbert Hoover den Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, der Zölle auf Tausende Güter erhob und eine Kettenreaktion nach sich zog. Länder wie Mexiko, Frankreich, Großbritannien und Kanada vergelten den Protektionismus Amerikas mit Gegenzöllen. Hinzu kommt die herrschende Deflation. Die Große Depression macht sich breit. Die Weltwirtschaft schrumpft rapide, und auch Situation in den USA bessert sich keineswegs. Ursprünglich sollte der Smoot-Hawley Act vor allem Farmern zugutekommen, doch der Kampf um Mehrheiten führte dazu, dass immer mehr Güter mit Zöllen belegt werden sollten. Was damals von einzelnen Abgeordneten auf den Weg gebracht wurde, geschieht heute zentral gesteuert – durch Donald Trump im Oval Office. Es gibt noch weitere Unterschiede, aber die entscheidende Parallele liegt auf dem Feld der Geopolitik. Mehr dazu von Ole Nymoen und Wolfgang M. Schmitt in der neuen Folge von „Wohlstand für Alle“! Unsere Zusatzinhalte könnt ihr bei Apple Podcasts, Steady und Patreon hören. Vielen Dank! Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/wohlstand-f%C3%BCr-alle/id1476402723 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/oleundwolfgang Steady: https://steadyhq.com/de/oleundwolfgang/about Literatur: Milton Friedman: Outdoing Smoot-Hawley. https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214378/full Douglas A. Irwin: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: A Quantitative Assessment. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w5509/w5509.pdf Charles Kindleberger: Die Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929-1939. Dtv. Branko Milanovic: Warum Mainstream-Ökonomen Trumps Lose-Lose-Politik nicht verstehen. https://makronom.de/warum-oekonomen-trumps-lose-lose-politik-nicht-verstehen-48996 Florian Pressler: Die erste Weltwirtschaftskrise. Eine kleine Geschichte der Großen Depression. C.H. Beck. Termine: Ole ist am 28. Mai in Würzburg: https://www.instagram.com/p/DJT1GUCNgff/?img_index=1 Wolfgang ist am 6.6. in Zürich: https://arthouse.ch/movies/bekenntnisse-des-hochstaplers-thomas-mann-210879 Wolfgang am 7.6. in Kilchberg: https://www.maison-du-futur.ch/jubilaeum-thomas-mann Ole ist am 11. Juni in Berlin: https://www.instagram.com/p/DJ1q0GisyBk/?hl=de Wolfgang am 11.6. in Berlin: https://lfbrecht.de/events/2025-06-11/

Making Sense
The Fed Is About to Cut Rates, Here's What They're NOT Telling You

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2025 20:52


The economy weakens and everyone looks to the Fed or any central bank to cut policy rates. But why? They call it stimulus but the real reason is nothing you've ever heard. In fact, Fed officials intentionally lied for decades to keep this quiet. You don't have to take my word for it; hear it from the maestro's mouth as we go down the rabbit hole of interest rates. Eurodollar University's Make it Make CentsFOMC March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
URGENT: The Bond Market JUST Flashed a MAJOR Warning

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2025 21:08


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/LT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another major warning, and it isn't too many Treasuries. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
You Won't Believe What Global Banks JUST Did

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2025 21:07


We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
You Won't Believe What the Swiss Central Bank Just Said

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 20:24


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/While we wait to see if the Swiss National Bank opts for zero or negative policy rates next month, its chief Martin Schlegel had a lot to say yesterday about a range of topics, including negative prices, Treasury bonds, and global risks. Jamie Dimon then today chimed in today cautioning that stocks and risk markets are ready for heightened credit risks. One reason why is volatility in repo, where TIC data shows a huge increasing in offshore resales heading into everything April. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Dimon Warns Markets Are Underestimating Geopolitical, Inflation Riskshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/jpmorgan-s-dimon-warns-against-complacency-amid-mounting-risksBloomberg Swiss Inflation Risks Falling Below Zero in Individual Months This Year, Schlegel Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-chief-sees-subzero-inflation-in-individual-months-this-yearBloomberg SNB President Schlegel Sees No Alternative to US Treasurieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-president-schlegel-sees-no-alternative-to-us-treasuriesBloomberg Singapore Central Bank Chief Says US Dollar Assets Irreplaceablehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-20/singapore-central-bank-chief-says-us-dollar-assets-irreplaceablehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Long View
JL Collins: The (Still) Simple Path to Wealth

The Long View

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 56:47


Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I'm Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar. Today on the podcast, we welcome back author and blogger JL Collins. JL's first book, The Simple Path to Wealth: Your road map to financial independence and a rich, free life, was published in 2016 and has since sold more than 1 million copies. He has recently come out with a second edition of the book, which his daughter, Jess, collaborated on. In 2023, he published another book called Pathfinders: Extraordinary Stories of People Like You on the Quest for Financial Independence.BackgroundBioThe Simple Path to Wealth (Revised & Expanded 2025 Edition): Your Road Map to Financial Independence and a Rich, Free LifePathfinders: Extraordinary Stories of People Like You on the Quest for Financial Independence—And How to Join ThemThe Simple Path to Wealth, 4% Rule, Inflation, and Stocks“Case Study #1: Putting the Simple Path to Wealth Into Action,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, July 10, 2023.“Things Important, and Unimportant,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, March 1, 2023.“Stocks—Part XIII: The 4% Rule, Withdrawal Rates and How Much Can I Spend Anyway?” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Oct. 15, 2023.“Déjà Vu All Over Again,” by JL Collins, jlcollinshh.com, April 18, 2025.“Stocks—Part IV: The Big Ugly Event, Deflation and a Bit on Inflation,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Nov. 16, 2023.“Stocks—Part XXII: Stepping Away From REITs,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, May 12, 2025.“Stocks—Part XXVII: Why I Don't Like Dollar Cost Averaging,” by JL Collins, jlcollinshn.com, Jan. 8, 2024.“Stocks—Part III: Most People Lose Money in the Market,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Nov. 16, 2023.“Time Machine and the Future Returns for Stocks,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, July 10, 2023.Debt Paydown“Chainsaws and Credit Cards,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, March 30, 2023.“Stocks—Part XXVIII: Debt – The Unacceptable Burden,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, May 12, 2025.Other“JL Collins: The Case for Simplicity,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 5, 2022.“JL Collins: Spotlighting the Many Paths to Financial Independence,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 31, 2023.Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSAXBill BengenMr. Money Mustache

Making Sense
URGENT: U.S. Credit Debt Just Got Downgraded, Is a Crash Next?In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 21:09


In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Meanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-marketsS&P Global August 5, 2011https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837Fitch August 1, 2023https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Japan JUST Entered a Recession And It's Quickly Spreading Worldwide

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2025 19:01


Japan did indeed fall back into recession in the first quarter before the tariff shock even had a chance to hit the economy, and positing a deeper negative GDP print than expected. Like everywhere else, the setback is being led largely by consumers. At the same time, American consumer confidence fell to another shocking low rather than rebound with trade deals and a rebounding stock market. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Everything You've Been Told About the Great Depression Is Wrong

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2025 19:47


It's still known as Black Tuesday almost a century later. In October 1929, the stock market crashes and plunges the world into the Great Depression. At least that's what we've been told and what we all believe. But then why didn't the Crash of 1987 lead to Great Depression 2? I mean, it didn't even slow the economy down. Or the dot-com crash. Something is missing. As it turns out, there's a lot missing and so this is the first installment to fill in what Economics leaves out, or plain gets wrong. Eurodollar University's Make it Make Centshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
The Retail Death Spiral Has Begun

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2025 21:02


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWalmart Q1 earningshttps://corporate.walmart.com/content/dam/corporate/documents/newsroom/2025/05/15/walmart-releases-q1-fy26-earnings/q1-fy26-earnings-release.pdfCNN Walmart warns it will raise prices because of tariffshttps://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/business/walmart-prices-tariffsCNBC Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earningshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.htmlBloomberg US Retail Sales Barely Rise, Suggesting Some Spending Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-retail-sales-barely-rise-suggesting-some-spending-pullbackBloomberg US Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly in April as Margins Shrankhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-producer-prices-fall-unexpectedly-as-margins-declineReuters US manufacturing output falls in April on weak auto productionhttps://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-manufacturing-output-falls-april-weak-auto-production-2025-05-15/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
The Most Dangerous Economic Story No One Is Talking About

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2025 21:02


Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problemhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problemRueters China's property 'whitelist' lifeline stutters amid sector gloomhttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-whitelist-lifeline-stutters-amid-sector-gloom-2024-05-14/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Everyone Is Missing the Real Story

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2025 21:53


Microsoft announced another round of layoffs. Coming from a company that isn't struggling nearly as much as most, it's an ominous sign. The April CPI shows why and not just for Microsoft. It instead aligns with the biggest problem in the economy, and that's not inflation which was absent from the report despite the start of tariffs. A surprise to Economists, but not to BED. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Microsoft laying off about 6,000 people, or 3% of its workforcehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/microsoft-is-cutting-3percent-of-workers-across-the-software-company.htmlBloomberg Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Points to Muted Tariff Fallouthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/us-inflation-comes-in-softer-than-forecast-for-another-monthBLS BED/BDMhttps://www.bls.gov/bdm/bdmover.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
The Ridiculous Real story Behind the Tariff Deal

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 13, 2025 20:58


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Re-risking accelerated on Wall Street and for many other markets; even bond yields rose. The thinking is if trade wars broke everything, then trade deals fix it. However, the US and China don't have one, And that's only the first of several key misimpressions - starting with the 2018 example. Like then, the incoming data doesn't align with "trade wars broke it."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJoint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Genevahttps://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/05/joint-statement-on-u-s-china-economic-and-trade-meeting-in-geneva/Bloomberg US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talkshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/us-and-china-agree-to-major-reductions-in-tariffs-for-90-daysBloomberg Japan Rules Out Trade Deal With US That Excludes Auto Tariffshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/japan-s-ishiba-says-won-t-do-trade-deal-with-us-excluding-autosSCMP China's consumer prices fall in April, fuelling fears of deflationhttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3309834/chinas-consumer-prices-fall-april-fuelling-fears-deflationhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
Government Report Reveals A LOT of People Are About to Lose Their Jobs

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2025 19:48


What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
WARNING: Canada's Job Market Just COLLAPSED

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 11, 2025 16:35


Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdfTranscript Chair Powell Press Conference May 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfBloomberg Canada Joblessness Hits 6.9% as Tariffs Strike Manufacturinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/canada-adds-7-400-jobs-unemployment-jumps-to-6-9Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2025https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/SPG Canada Manufacturing PMI April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/487ca2cba7784b86aa9d9df3a315d744SPG Canada Services PMI April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c356ce1148c420fbee728307ef2b2dchttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
The Bank of England Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2025 23:17


Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBank of England MPR May 2025https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/may-2025FOMC Chair May 2025 press conferencehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oX4RCJJXAMhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Making Sense
NEW Report Shows Global Banks Are Dangerously Overexposed to Risk

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 22:34


If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast their blame specifically toward banks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Short Sellers Bet Against Private Credit Lendershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-03/short-sellers-bet-against-private-credit-lenders-credit-weeklyIMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2025https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/04/22/global-financial-stability-report-april-2025IMF Private Credithttps://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/08/fast-growing-USD2-trillion-private-credit-market-warrants-closer-watchhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU