Podcasts about fiscal stimulus

The Dollar Standard, Global Liquidity, and the Coming Economic Reckoning In my expansive and highly accessible conversation with renowned economist Richard Duncan, we discuss the logic behind his long-running critique of the international monetary system, a system Richard calls the Dollar Standard where he explains why current U.S. policy moves, the system could come crashing down.   The Origins of the Dollar Standard and America's “Exorbitant Privilege” The Dollar Standard, Duncan explains, evolved out of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system (implemented after WWII) in 1971. Under Bretton Woods, currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold. But when other countries accumulated more dollars than the U.S. had gold, President Nixon suspended dollar convertibility, effectively ending the gold standard.   What replaced it was a floating currency regime and the birth of the Dollar Standard. Crucially, the U.S. began running persistent trade deficits, importing goods and sending dollars abroad. These dollars, in turn, were recycled by foreign central banks, especially in trade surplus countries like China and Japan, into U.S. dollar-denominated assets, primarily Treasuries, but also equities and real estate.   This loop, Duncan argues, created America's “exorbitant privilege”: the ability to fund government spending and consumer imports at artificially low interest rates, because foreign buyers are constantly reinvesting in U.S. debt and assets.   The phrase "exorbitant privilege" was first coined by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who later became President of France, but at the time was serving as France's Minister of Finance under President Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s.   He used the term to criticize the unique advantages enjoyed by the United States under the Bretton Woods system, particularly the ability to run persistent deficits by issuing debt in its own currency (the U.S. dollar), while foreign nations had to hold and use those dollars to trade and build reserves.   Giscard and de Gaulle saw this as an unfair financial hegemony that allowed the U.S. to “live beyond its means” at the expense of others. The phrase was intended as a critique but, ironically, it's now often used in a neutral or even admiring tone by economists.   How Global Credit Became a Bubble Machine Duncan makes the case that this system, while benefiting the U.S. enormously, has been fundamentally destabilizing for the rest of the world.   As surplus countries absorb dollar inflows, their central banks convert them into local currency, often by printing their own money. That liquidity ends up in domestic banking systems, fueling excessive credit growth, asset bubbles, and financial crises.   It happened in Japan in the late 1980s. It triggered the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s. And it helped fuel China's real estate boom and the global credit bubble that preceded the 2008 collapse.   Notably, Duncan predicted the 2008 financial crisis in his 2003 book, The Dollar Crisis, warning that runaway global imbalances would eventually lead to a systemic shock. He now argues that post-2008 bailouts and quantitative easing (QE) only expanded the bubble rather than fixing the problem.   Trump's Trade Doctrine: Potential to Destabilize the System Fast forward to 2025: Trump is back in office, and his administration is moving quickly to reshape global trade.   Duncan's concern is that the Trump administration's effort to eliminate the U.S. trade deficit by imposing high tariffs and pursuing a strategic devaluation of the dollar, undermines the very structure that has sustained U.S. prosperity and global financial stability for decades. Why? Because every U.S. trade deficit is matched by a capital inflow. It's a balance-of-payments identity: if the U.S. runs a $1.1 trillion current account deficit, there must be a $1.1 trillion capital surplus (i.e., inflows) to finance it.   Take that away and you choke off the supply of global liquidity that props up asset prices worldwide.   The Doom Loop: What Happens If Capital Stops Flowing In Duncan walks through the scenario: If tariffs succeed in shrinking the trade deficit, dollars stop flowing abroad. Without those dollars, foreign central banks have fewer reserves to recycle into U.S. assets. This reduces demand for Treasuries, pushing interest rates up. Rising rates crush real estate, stocks, and credit-dependent sectors. Simultaneously, trade-surplus economies face a liquidity crunch, leading to job losses, bankruptcies, and potential financial crises. The result? A global depression triggered not by market excess this time, but by deliberate government policy.   Duncan notes that the Trump administration has already blinked once in rolling back tariffs on China after markets began to seize. But the damage to global confidence in the dollar's stability and America's reliability as a trading partner may already be done.   CRE-Specific Risks For CRE professionals, Duncan's framework suggests several key risks: Interest Rate Volatility: If capital inflows decline, Treasury demand will fall and rates may rise, increasing financing costs and repricing assets downward. Foreign Capital Flight: A weakening dollar and escalating trade tensions could lead to foreign divestment from U.S. real estate, especially in coastal gateway cities where foreign investors are dominant. Liquidity Shock: Reduced global liquidity may tighten credit markets, making debt financing harder to access for new acquisitions or refis. Wealth Effect Reversal: Falling stock prices and higher rates could curb consumer spending and investor confidence, affecting retail, hospitality, and housing-linked CRE. Is There a Way Out? Despite the dire tone, Duncan offers a constructive alternative. In his more recent book, The Money Revolution, he advocates using the U.S. government's borrowing capacity, enabled by dollar dominance and low rates, to invest aggressively in future-focused industries: AI, biotech, quantum computing, green energy.   In short: inflate productively, not destructively. Use fiat-financed public investment to grow out of the debt bubble, rather than letting it implode through austerity or protectionism. But he acknowledges that political will may be lacking and that, without it, the only other option will be another round of massive QE when the next crisis hits.   Final Thought Duncan's message is clear: we are not playing by gold standard rules anymore. The U.S. economy, and the world's, runs on confidence, liquidity, and the flow of capital. Disrupt that system and we may find ourselves testing whether the Fed and Treasury can reflate the bubble one more time. *** You may not agree with Richard's perspective but, as a real estate investor, understanding differing points of view helps in underwriting investment risk by incorporating possible downsides into exit strategies.   This is a fascinating and accessible discussion. Tune in if you want to understand the real risks underpinning your real estate investment decisions in the coming months.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000    

In this timely episode of The Voice of Retail, host Michael LeBlanc welcomes back frequent guest and audience favorite Ira Kalish, Chief Global and US Economist for Deloitte, who is set to deliver the opening keynote address at Retail Council of Canada's STORE2025 conference on June 3rd. This conversation offers listeners a valuable preview of the critical economic insights Canadian retailers can expect from his highly anticipated keynote.As LeBlanc notes in the introduction, "I'm very excited that you're going to be here in person," highlighting the significance of Kalish's upcoming role in kicking off RCC's flagship event during this period of economic uncertainty. The episode serves as an essential primer for conference attendees and provides crucial analysis for all retail professionals navigating today's complex trade environment.Drawing on his deep economic expertise, Kalish reveals that average US tariff rates have skyrocketed to approximately 27% - levels not seen since 1903. This represents a dramatic increase from the previous 3-3.5% rates and has triggered significant financial market volatility, supply chain disruptions, and growing concerns about economic downturns - all topics he'll address more extensively in his STORE2025 presentation.The conversation tackles three major justifications for the new tariff approach: shifting from taxes to tariffs for revenue generation, rebalancing global trade priorities, and re-shoring manufacturing. Kalish systematically challenges these rationales, providing a preview of the economic framework he'll expand upon during his conference keynote.Particularly concerning for retailers planning to attend STORE2025, Kalish highlights data showing container shipments from China to the US are down 45% year-over-year, as importers either find tariffs too prohibitive or wait for potential policy reversals. This disruption threatens empty store shelves and significantly higher consumer prices in the immediate future - urgent challenges that will undoubtedly be central to his opening address.Continuing themes he'll develop further at the conference, the discussion also explores non-tariff barriers, currency manipulation accusations, and the possibility of regional "fortress" trading blocs. While Kalish doesn't foresee complete regionalization of trade, he notes that many countries are now working to reduce US trade dependence by liberalizing trade with each other.On a more optimistic note, the conversation concludes by examining how this trade crisis might catalyze positive economic reforms in Canada - a topic that will resonate strongly with the Canadian retail executives gathering at STORE2025.Listeners are encouraged to follow Kalish's weekly economic updates on Deloitte's thought leadership website at deloitte.com/insights, while also making plans to attend his must-see opening keynote at Retail Council of Canada's STORE2025 conference on June 1st, where he'll provide expanded insights on these rapidly evolving economic developments.  Michael LeBlanc is the president and founder of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc, a senior retail advisor, keynote speaker and now, media entrepreneur. He has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career. Michael has delivered keynotes, hosted fire-side discussions and participated worldwide in thought leadership panels, most recently on the main stage in Toronto at Retail Council of Canada's Retail Marketing conference with leaders from Walmart & Google. He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience with Levi's, Black & Decker, Hudson's Bay, CanWest Media, Pandora Jewellery, The Shopping Channel and Retail Council of Canada to his advisory, speaking and media practice.Michael produces and hosts a network of leading retail trade podcasts, including the award-winning No.1 independent retail industry podcast in America, Remarkable Retail with his partner, Dallas-based best-selling author Steve Dennis; Canada's top retail industry podcast The Voice of Retail and Canada's top food industry and one of the top Canadian-produced management independent podcasts in the country, The Food Professor with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois from Dalhousie University in Halifax.Rethink Retail has recognized Michael as one of the top global retail experts for the fifth year in a row, the National Retail Federation has designated Michael as on their Top Retail Voices for 2025, Thinkers 360 has named him on of the Top 50 global thought leaders in retail, RTIH has named him a top 100 global though leader in retail technology and Coresight Research has named Michael a Retail AI Influencer. If you are a BBQ fan, you can tune into Michael's cooking show, Last Request BBQ, on YouTube, Instagram, X and yes, TikTok.Michael is available for keynote presentations helping retailers, brands and retail industry insiders explaining the current state and future of the retail industry in North America and around the world.

In this episode, I join Ash Bennington on Real Vision to discuss the dramatic shifts happening in the world of critical minerals, lithium pricing, and global energy policy. We explore lithium's recent price collapse, why I'm still bullish long-term, and how geopolitical forces—including tariffs and supply chain realignments—are reshaping commodities markets. I also highlight key investment opportunities across lithium, copper, uranium, and broader mining ETFs. Stay tuned until the end as I briefly spotlight one overlooked opportunity in the electrification space. CHAPTERS

In today's episode, we'll hear from Craig Jeffery on fiscal stimulus. What is it, and what is its purpose? How does it impact the economy, finance, and treasury? Listen in to learn about common tools and how fiscal stimulus is funded.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss ADP employment data, Germany's fiscal stimulus, and Trump's address to Congress. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

With every move he makes to streamline Government and remove waste, Donald Trump reduces the Fiscal Stimulus. It's an overdue process that is essential for America's long-term financial viability. We can only wish him well; it won't be without pain

With every move he makes to streamline Government and remove waste, Donald Trump reduces the Fiscal Stimulus. It's an overdue process that is essential for America's long-term financial viability. We can only wish him well; it won't be without pain

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Highlights: • S&P 500 Market Analysis  • Fiscal Stimulus and Liquidity Concerns  • Technology Sector and Earnings Expectations  • Amazon and Market Potential  • Crude Oil and Gold    TimingResearch.com Crowd Forecast News Episode #453, recorded at 1PM ET on October 28th, 2024. The full video and show notes available here: https://timingresearch.com/blog/2024/crowd-forecast-news-episode-453/   Lineup for this Episode: - Hans Albrecht of CrushThePremium.com & CashFlowInsiders.com - The Option Professor of OptionProfessor.com   Bonus...

Eric and Matt share insights on the market's performance through the third quarter of 2024, highlighting the S&P rising by 6% and a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the first since the pandemic. Eric reflects on market sentiment and the complexities of predicting Fed actions, addressing the contrasts between past and present credit cycles, and emphasizing the importance of leverage awareness. They also delve into the impact of fiscal stimulus, wage inflation, and private market trends, while considering potential risks like inflation resurgence and government debt levels. Lastly, the conversation touches on the private markets, their growth, and the role of corporate credit and gives perspective on potential election volatility for next quarter.  For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:00:23) Fed Rate Cuts and Market Reactions (00:01:32) Leverage and Market Dynamics (00:03:07) Fiscal Stimulus and Wage Inflation (00:06:14) Global Economic Trends and Risks (00:11:04) Fed Policies and Historical Perspectives (00:16:06) Inflation Concerns and Market Implications (00:19:34) Investor Strategies and Fed Data Analysis (00:23:17) Fed's Easing Cycle: Market Reactions (00:23:33) Election Volatility and Market Expectations (00:24:08) Split Government and Market Stability (00:27:45) Corporate Credit Spreads and Economic Indicators (00:34:17) Private Markets and Investment Trends (00:41:01) Sports Betting and Market Regulation (00:44:02) Predictions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

PRC: Inadequate fiscal stimulus, says Goldman Sachs. Anne Stevenson-Yang, @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill Anne Stevenson-Yang, author of Wild Ride: China's Short-Lived Experiment in Capitalism, https://www.wsj.com/world/china/more-debts-or-not-beijing-faces-a-thorny-question-de0ef110 Hong Kong 1925

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on whether we are seeing Austerity or Fiscal Stimulus? After all there are many claims of Austerity but we also see persistent Budget Deficits and larger National Debts. I use the UK and France as examples.

This episode's guest is James Fishback. He recently had a high profile (and highly meme'd) exit from David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital.  He's moved past the 'head of macro" controversy, and is now focused on building his next venture, Azoria Capital.This episode James shares his insights on the current state of the macro economy, including his thoughts on U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. We discuss actionable investment strategies around macro trends and what James has been paying attention to this year. We dive into what this year's election means for the economy and the differences between Trump and Biden, highlighting their contrasting economic policies.Lastly, we discuss Azoria Capital and how James is creating an investment vehicle that targets companies that are using a merit based approach vs the recent trends of embracing ESG and DEI.  Hope you enjoy the show!James' Twitter: https://x.com/j_fishback..Timestamps:00:00:00 - Intro00:01:59 - Guest's Introduction00:02:04 - James' Social Media Success00:03:00 - The Importance of Open Debate00:05:29 - Investing in Macro Themes00:12:49 - The Impact of Fiscal Stimulus on Inflation00:18:42 - The Role of the Federal Reserve00:22:46 - Rate Hikes and Their Effects00:25:09 - The Fed's Lemonhead Problem00:27:16 - Rate Hikes and Their Real Impact00:29:12 - The Impact of Rate Hikes on Wealth00:32:41 - The Importance of Focusing on Shareholders00:36:32 - The Process of Assessing Companies00:37:23 - The Shift in Corporate Priorities00:41:01 - Energy Transition and Green Investments00:42:20 - Government Intervention in Energy Transition00:44:48 - Consumer Choice in Energy Transition00:45:39 - Free Market and Electric Vehicles00:48:35 - Policy and Politics Discussion00:50:04 - Potential Impact of Administration Change00:56:56 - What is Azoria#jamesfishback #maxgagliardi #uselections2024 #energy #trump #biden #usinflation

We're joined by Dante Cook, John Haar, Dr. Jeff Ross, and many others for an in-depth conversation about the upcoming political cycle and its potential impact on the economy. The conversation touched on the recent Bitcoin price fluctuations and the factors influencing them, such as market sentiment and liquidity. The panelists also delved into the role of the Federal Reserve and the potential influence of political figures on monetary policy decisions. Overall, the discussion highlighted the importance of understanding the interplay between government policies, economic indicators, and market dynamics in shaping the future trajectory of Bitcoin and other assets.  Use code “CAFE” for a discount to ⁠https://www.pacificbitcoin.com⁠⁠ "Welcome to Bitcoin" A FREE 1-hour course hosted by Natalie Brunell, perfect for helping you to orange-pill family members over the holidays at https://Swan.com/welcome ⁠⁠ Swan Team Members:Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallahTomer Strolight: https://twitter.com/TomerStrolightJohn Haar Twitter: ⁠https://twitter.com/john_at_swanDante Cook: https://twitter.com/Dante_Cook1Produced by: https://twitter.com/Producer_Jacob Swan Bitcoin is the best way to accumulate Bitcoin with automatic recurring buys and instant buys from $10 to $10 million. Get started in just 5 minutes. Your first $10 purchase is on us: https://swanbitcoin.com/yt Download the all new Swan app! iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/swan-bitcoin/id1576287352 Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.swanbitcoin.android&pli=1 Are you a high net worth individual or do you represent corporation that might be interested in learning more about Bitcoin? Swan Private guides corporations and high net worth individuals toward building generational wealth with Bitcoin. Find out more at https://swan.com/private Get paid to recruit new Bitcoiners: https://swan.com/enlist Connect with Swan on social media: Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/Swan

But Fiscal Stimulus is no panacea; it's not a solution to all our economic problems. In fact, when Fiscal Stimulus is applied during a time when the economy is already growing, this added stimulus translates into inflation. Too much of a good thing can do more harm than good.

But Fiscal Stimulus is no panacea; it's not a solution to all our economic problems. In fact, when Fiscal Stimulus is applied during a time when the economy is already growing, this added stimulus translates into inflation. Too much of a good thing can do more harm than good.

But Fiscal Stimulus is no panacea; it's not a solution to all our economic problems. In fact, when Fiscal Stimulus is applied during a time when the economy is already growing, this added stimulus translates into inflation. Too much of a good thing can do more harm than good.

But Fiscal Stimulus is no panacea; it's not a solution to all our economic problems. In fact, when Fiscal Stimulus is applied during a time when the economy is already growing, this added stimulus translates into inflation. Too much of a good thing can do more harm than good.

As the stock market trades at all-time highs, is this a great time to continue to ride the bull rally? Or has the getting been too good for too long? Is it instead now a good time to take gains and wait for a correction? Today we'll hear answers to these questions from Chance Finucane, Chief Investment Office at Oxbow Advisors.  Oxbow Advisors is a financial advisory firm founded by Ted Oakley that specializes in the needs of high net worth clients. As Ted's CIO, Chance will share with us what kind of market outlook the firm sees ahead for the rest of the year and how it is positioning its client's assets for it. Among other risks, Oxbow is watching the liquidity situation very closely. Globally, fiscal stimulus grew substantially in 2023. But in 2024, its growth is predicted to be much more anemic -- even negative -- across the world. That could be a game changer, triggering both economic slowdown and a potential market correction. Follow Oxbow at https://oxbowadvisors.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #stimulus #investing

Washington Policy Analyst, Ed Mills returns to the podcast and has wide-ranging discussion with host Chris Cooksey, including:     How bills passed in the last couple of years are only starting to hit the economy. We are talking about Inflation Reduction Act, Chips and Science Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill. How they could be under threat of repeal in a Trump Administration/how they should also be viewed in the lens of national security.   Follow the podcast on LinkedIn: The Advantaged Investor   Please subscribe, rate and review. Reach out at advantagedinvestorpod@raymondjames.ca.

This episode on the limits of fiscal policy features highlights from host Gene Tunny's past conversations with the late Australian economist Professor Tony Makin and former OECD Ambassador Alex Robson. In the discussions, Tony Makin provides a balanced and insightful analysis of Australia's fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, critiquing programs like JobKeeper while recognizing some justification. He and Alex Robson discuss the importance of considering the open economy impacts of fiscal stimulus and the long-term burdens of debt. The episode looks to validate Makin's warnings about the limits of discretionary fiscal policy through subsequent evidence and events. Gene summarizes the JobKeeper evaluation results and what happened in the Australian housing market following the pandemic fiscal stimulus. Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. What's covered in EP222Fiscal policy limits and its impacts: introduction (0:03)Economic stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. (9:36)JobKeeper program design and targeting. (15:44)JobKeeper program's effectiveness and infrastructure spending challenges. (21:31)Keynesian economics and infrastructure spending. (27:50)Fiscal policy and its impact on the economy. (33:13)Fiscal policy and its unintended consequences. (40:12)The economic impact of public debt with Tony Makin and Alex Robson. (48:31)Fiscal policy and its impact on the economy: wrap up. (53:39)TakeawaysFiscal stimulus packages must be carefully designed and limited in size to avoid unintended consequences.The nature of the workforce is important to consider when implementing fiscal policy, as not all workers can easily transfer to different industries.The burden of public debt, including interest payments, can have long-term impacts on national income and economic growth.The effectiveness of fiscal policy in an open economy is influenced by factors such as capital mobility and exchange rates.Tony Makin was a leading advocate for sensible fiscal policy in Australia, and his contributions to the field are greatly missed.Episodes the highlights are clipped fromEP119: What Tony Makin taught us about macroeconomics – Economics ExploredA Fiscal Vaccine for COVID-19 with Tony Makin – new podcast episode | Queensland Economy WatchLinks relevant to the conversationFiscal policy papers by Tony Makin:The Effectiveness of Federal Fiscal Policy: A Review(PDF) Australia's Competitiveness: Reversing the SlideA Fiscal Vaccine for COVID-19Treasury analysis of JobKeeper:Independent Evaluation of the JobKeeper Payment Final Report | Treasury.gov.auThe employment effects of JobKeeper receipt | Treasury.gov.au  News regarding unintended consequences of fiscal stimulus:Building company collapses into liquidation days before Christmas, impacting four Guzman Y Gomez sitesThanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show's sponsor, Gene's consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

“Capital investment has surprised a great bit of our economy and the business community,” says TD Bank EVP Bill Fink. “As rates go up, how could we be having stronger capital investment?” In the latest episode of the ABA Banking Journal Podcast — the third in a series of conversations on the business outlook, sponsored by Intrafi — Fink discusses how the fiscal stimulus of the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, as well as state economic development packages for incentivized facilities in the high-tech, semiconductor and green tech sectors, are offsetting the increase in rates. In this episode, Fink also talks about: Where businesses are looking for growth in an era of rates being “higher for longer.” The durability and strength of warehousing and manufacturing facilities in commercial real estate. Continued opportunities for add-on acquisitions amid a constrained M&A market.

Joining us today is the Head of Research at Coinbase, David Doung, and macro is on the menu.  We're talking yield curves, election fears, US equities, and if macro economics is even real.  And finally, David walks us through the recession. Is it delayed, is it cancelled, is it already here? -----

Nanette Jacobson, Global Investments Strategist at Hartford Funds, joins Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook. Jacobson argues that it might be time to lean into bonds because the bonds tend to rally 13 months before the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and she and Jack Farley debate the various merits of owning bonds at this juncture in the business cycle. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Economic Outlook (09:04) Outlook On Banking System (12:45) Views On Interest Rates & Fed (25:20) China is "Cheap For A Reason" (30:14) U.S. Fiscal Stimulus (37:22) Cautious Views On Stocks (39:05) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (39:06) Debate About Bonds (45:56) Common Costly Mistakes That Investors Make (50:52) Expensive Stocks Can Always Get More Expensive

Peter Stella is former head of the Central Banking and Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations Divisions at the IMF. Currently, he provides macroeconomic policy advice and research to central banks, governments, and private clients in Asia, Europe, the United States and Latin America. In this podcast, we discuss f ramework for multi-asset investing, the power of fiscal policy, politics of Fed, and much more.   Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Chief Investment Strategist Fritz Folts and Deputy CIO Eric Biegeleisen review our latest outlook in the July View From the EDGE® The post Fiscal Stimulus Offsets Monetary Tightening (for now) – View From the EDGE® July 2023 appeared first on 3EDGE Asset Management.

Check out the Prometheus platform for more expert financial content. Invest in alternatives and become a better fund manager.Download the iOS appDesktop appwww.prometheusalts.comMarko Papic leads Clocktower's strategy team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012. Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor. He holds graduate degrees from UT Austin and the University of British Columbia.0:07:45 - Yield Curve and COVID Fiscal Response (41 Seconds)0:11:44 - Fed Cuts Rates and Consumer Response (68 Seconds)0:14:38 - Inflation and Interest Rates (60 Seconds)0:18:06 - Presidential Influence on FMC Leniency (93 Seconds)0:24:22 - Impact of American Elites on FOMC (90 Seconds)0:32:43 - Geopolitical Pornography and Containing China (53 Seconds)0:45:34 - Emerging Market Commodities Bullish Case (79 Seconds)0:52:46 - Debt Ceiling Debate (34 Seconds)1:06:34 - Lakers vs. Golden State (69 Seconds)Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://twitter.com/geo_papic?lang=en 

Vince Lanci of Echo Bay Partners and author of GoldFix joins us for a lengthy discussion as to why he is increasingly bullish and confident of Gold and Silver's future.This interview focused on Silver, its current divergence with Gold, why it will become very difficult to get physical Silver and how politics might impact the catalysts for Gold & Silver in 2023. Timestamps are below. Listen at 1.25x or 1.50x to shorten interview. 1:00: Silver Preamble1:45: Silver Long-Term & Short-Term2:30: Technical Aspect of Silver11:00: Silver Physical Demand25:00: Vince's LT Forecast for Silver28:00: Late 1960s Similarities33:30: How to Put Money to Work41:30: How Silver Bull Could Play Out44:30: 2023 Catalysts. Fed Easing or Fiscal Stimulus.46:25: Vince Time Frames1:02: What is a Pivot1:06: Ending

Josh & Dan rip with the ever knowledgable Joe Carlasare.  Lawyer by day, credit market expert by night! We Cover: QE not inflationary, Fiscal Stimulus has been Intervention needed to float traditional markets Inflation The Bond Market controls the FED Central Banks buying Bitcoin Mining at the Firehouse SHOW SPONSORS: **COINKITE** - Makers or the best Bitcoin security hardware in the world. Use PROMO CODE "BCB" for 5% off ColdCard Mk3 purchases at coinkite.com. Coinkite is the producer of the iconic ColdCard.  ColdCard is widely regarded as the MOST secure signing device in existence, and can be used by beginners all the way up to the most advanced users (The 2 of us have relied on this device for years.) If you wanna get frisky, check out the BlockClock Mini, this beauty sits on a bookshelf or hangs on the wall and displays any metric about Bitcoin you can think of.  BlockClock Mini is a lust worthy addition to any Bitcoiners home. Other Coinkite products include the OPENDIME, the SATSCARD, the TAPSIGNER, the SEEDPLATE, COLDPOWER and sweet hats. All available at coinkite.com. ColdCard Guides (ultra quick - intermediate - advanced) **LEDN** - A Bitcoin forward financial services company that has chosen to mirror and embrace the transparency, accountability, and auditability of Bitcoin itself by undergoing Proof of Reserves. Use Bitcoin as collateral and access dollar loans with Ledn Bitcoin backed loans. Harness your Bitcoin holdings to buy a new property or finance the home you already own with the upcoming Ledn Bitcoin Mortgage Product. Save Bitcoin and USDC and have access to Ledn's Dollar Loans and trading service. You can look into Ledn's well architected menu of services at Ledn.io (All products and services subject to availability & jurisdiction.)   SUPPORT THE BCB PODCAST: ⇨TIPS: strike.me/bcb (tips also open on Twitter) ⇨PODCAST 2.0 STREAMING: You can stream us fractions of a cent via Bitcoin sats on the Lightning Network!  We are live on Podcast 2.0 apps & wallets. BREEZ Wallet is a great way to get started→HERE is an easy tutorial that demonstrates exactly how to do it. ABOUT JOE CARLASARE Joe is a lawyer, a commercial litigator, and he's co-chair of the Cryptocurrency, Blockchain and FinTech group. He has been an active investor and proponent of Bitcoin since 2015. Professionally he  provides practical and legal expertise to individuals and companies on regulatory compliance and custodial solutions for digital assets. He is also the co-host of the Inside Bitcoin Podcast. Josh & Dan both agree Joe is one of the most well-rounded Bitcoiners alive. He has the depth of knowledge and the breadth of knowledge across numerous disciplines, from financial markets to legal and political landscapes to more deep philosophical and game theoretic discussions. ITEMS MENTIONED IN THE SHOW: Inside Bitcoin Podcast Dr Lacy Hunt The Bond Book TWITTER: Follow Blue Collar Bitcoin Podcast @blue_collarbtc, Follow Joe Carlasare @JoeCarlasare EMAIL: Send us questions, comments, or feedback at bluecollarbitcoinpodcast@gmail.com

The Macquarie Fixed Income team held its most recent Strategic Forum in May 2021.  In this Forum, the team investigated a very important thesis: Whether or not  financial markets are at a significant turning point.  Macquarie's Daniel Longden sat down soon after in our Sydney studio with group CIO Brett Lewthwaite to recap the discussion. 

Patti meets with her Chief Planning Officer, Eric Fuhrman, to discuss the recent fiscal stimulus packages and the effect they have on the nation's output gap. To understand the relationship between the two, they first define the concepts and then give a historical perspective. Many Americans are asking the question, “Why does the government spend huge sums of money during economic crises?” Patti and Eric answer this question and delve into the nuances of how the government determines exactly how much to spend. They also explain why this practice has been so effective for our economy – contrary to some public reaction that may be heightened when discussing figures of this magnitude.

2021 brought back talk of possible rising interest rates and inflation. Equity markets seem to reach new highs just about every day while questions are arising around the traditional safety of bonds. Matt Orton, CFA, Director and Portfolio Specialist at Carillon Tower Advisers, is joined by Portfolio Managers James Camp, CFA, and Brad Erwin, CFA, of Eagle Asset Management, to analyze the potential opportunities for investors focused on income.

Tensions between China and the US do not appear to be easing. There are media reports that China is investigating how badly US companies would be damaged by a ban on rare earth exports. Direct action in the future may be preferred over trade taxes by both sides. US President Trump's trade taxes did reduce Chinese market share in the US, but also did a lot of damage to US importers.

On this edition, we touch on how Washington is interpreting recent activity on Wall Street, take inventory of executive orders, update on fiscal stimulus and more. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this edition, we touch on how Washington is interpreting recent activity on Wall Street, take inventory of executive orders, update on fiscal stimulus and more. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In this episode of Market Pulse, we break down the second round of stimulus that took effect in late December. Who won? Who lost? And how will it impact the overall economy, as well as consumers and small businesses? We also discuss a potential third round of stimulus.This transcription is edited for brevity. Listen to the full podcast for more great insights.Theresa: Let's start with the current round of stimulus that took effect at the end of December. There are few more common elements of the package, such as the one-time checks, unemployment and PPP. I'd like to take just a few minutes to really dig down into these elements.Cris deRitis: There are really three main components to that package. One was a pandemic relief, so there was some additional support provided to vaccine distribution, testing and tracing. And we know that it remains front and center in terms of resolving this current crisis and getting us to a place where the economy can grow. So the pandemic has to be dealt with first, first of all. But in addition to that $900 billion package right at the end of December was critical because we were facing a number of programs that were set to expire. So there really was this so-called fiscal cliff where you could have seen a number of households being evicted. You could have seen a number of households losing out on their unemployment insurance benefits. And so that plan provided some household financial support as well, right? So the one-time stimulus checks and expanded unemployment insurance. And then finally it provided some support for small businesses, which remain critical through the recovery as well. And as we know, many small businesses continue to suffer, particularly those that are really exposed to say lockdown measures, retailers, restaurants. Theresa: And so the one-time check is for $600 this round?Cris deRitis: Yes, $600 this round for individuals earning less than $75,000. And then it gets phased out after that.Theresa: We've talked a number of times too, about how a lot of folks have been using this, whether it's the one-time check or the additional benefits of the unemployment insurance to pay down a lot of their debt and not necessarily taking out additional. . What kind of impacts does it have potentially to our listeners, predominantly lenders and service providers?Cris deRitis: I would say it's largely positive for the consumer credit lender. This puts more money in folks' pockets. It gives them again a little bit of a lifeline here. So households are, by and large, I believe going to pay down some debt and reserve some of the cash that they may be receiving for that rainy day or for that emergency.Theresa: As we shift gears to the payment protection plan, share with us a little bit more insight there and the additional benefits that have been provided to small businesses.Cris deRitis: This most recent round provides about $280 billion worth of PPP loans, focusing on micro-businesses or mom and pop businesses. It's really to protect the payroll, as the name implies. This latest round, also, I believe addresses some of the limitations or learnings if you will, from the previous round, in that it's more targeted to really the smallest of the small businesses. For more on this interview, listen to our full podcast. To access the latest consumer credit and small business insights, contact your Equifax account executive today, or visit us online at equifax.com/business. You might also enjoy checking out Economy.com by Moody's Analytics  for the latest economic updates.******We want to hear from you! What did you think of this episode? What would you like to hear our experts share in the future? Email us: marketpulsepodcast@equifax.com. RESOURCES mentioned in this podcast: Register for upcoming Market Pulse webinars from Equifax, plus access previous webinars and presentations. Download our latest Credit Trends reports. 

Tony Dwyer says that SPX components' 10 and 50-day moving averages suggest nearing overbought, in addition to volatility coming down but remaining somewhat elevated.

In the latest episode of The Flip Side, Head of Research, Jeff Meli, and Head of Macro Research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, discuss whether factors such as the distribution of the recovery to date, the appetite for increasing national debt and the looming possibility of a vaccine warrant further fiscal stimulus to bolster economic recovery in the US.

In this episode of the Market Pulse monthly, we focus on the U.S. economy and credit insights -- both consumer and small business. This transcription is edited for brevity. Listen to the full podcast for more great insights. Theresa: Let's start with the macro economy, and more specifically, fiscal stimulus. Chris, it seems things are changing by the day, and at times, by the hour. Are we going to get additional stimulus? And if so, when and what might it look like?Cris deRitis:That's a great question, Theresa. It's really critical to the economic outlook, certainly in the short term. I think the question really is when. I'm fairly confident that we will get some fiscal stimulus because the economy remains weak, although there's been some improvement. We are putting more people back to work. Still, we have over 800,000 people filing for unemployment every week. So, clearly there is a need for some additional support. The timing now really depends on the election outcome. I believe there's a chance that we are able to reach a deal before the election, and every day we get another piece of information that sounds encouraging at times; It sounds discouraging other times. So, it's possible that we get something before the election, but my working assumption right now is that it will be after the election. And then, the precise timing will depend on who actually wins the election.Theresa: I know I've seen updates around whether we'll get another $1,200 stimulus check and potentially extended unemployment benefits. You and I have discussed the aid to state and local governments. Can you help us understand how each of those elements might go?Cris deRitis:I think all of these elements are still on the table. Again, there's negotiation going on, on both sides with the house Democrats and the Senate Republicans in the White house, having all different views. I think each one of these elements or some flavor of these elements is still likely to show up in the final package. I think the debate is really around the size of the checks. Maybe the qualifications on the amount of money that might be granted for families with dependent children or older dependent children. So those are really the details where we have some other debate, but I do expect to see some form of check going forward. The extended unemployment insurance benefits have been critical as well. That's the extra $600 a week that folks were getting as part of their unemployment insurance package. That extension ran out at the end of July, essentially. At this point, you have families really making do with the standard benefit and with whatever savings they've accumulated. And that means that they are now vulnerable. At this point, as we were looking at October, November, some of those savings are running awfully low.Theresa: Last time we spoke about the potential shape of the recovery, and even during the presidential debate a few weeks ago there, the topic of a K-shaped recovery came up. Do you still see the K-shaped recovery? And help us understand a little bit how that's looking.Cris deRitis: Unfortunately, I do. Another way to put it is that we have a two-track type of recovery. You have one part of the population that is doing relatively well – or even great. But some households, some individuals are certainly doing better than others. So, the recovery has been much stronger for those folks who have jobs where they can work from home. Higher income and higher wealth households are doing better. More highly educated people certainly have more opportunities. Their stock market portfolios have recovered in terms of their values, house prices continue to rise. On the other hand, you have the 75% of the population or so who have to show up to work. They can't work from home very effectively. And they may be working in industries that were very hard hit by the COVID-19 crisis. So, if folks are working in leisure and hospitality or bricks and mortar retail, the economic recovery is certainly much, much slower. And they may not have savings or some of the stock market wealth that I alluded to. So, I am concerned that we will have even more inequality, at least for a while, as we work through this recovery. And that's all the more reason why we need additional fiscal stimulus, particularly to ensure that those folks who are struggling to move ahead in this recovery have the support they need to put food on the table and meet their obligations. And at the same time, give them some breathing room to look for a job or to start a business.Theresa: Now we're going to shift to focus more specifically on consumer credit, both current trends and outlook. Chris, is there anything in the data that is really jumping out at you today?Chris Walker:There is. Total consumer debt is up about 3%. The delinquencies still remain low, and they're actually about 50% less than they were a year ago. We know that's driven by the CARES Act. When you drill down, you go into certain products. So, auto and our bank card and private label cards -- all those have actually been experiencing somewhat of a rise in delinquency over the past few weeks. And that corresponds to declines that we've seen in possible accommodation. Now, the percentage of balances that we see under a form of possible accommodation reached a peak in June of this year. And since that time, it has been declining. This past week, we held at 6.9% of balances under one of the forms of possible accommodation. But a couple of accounts actually started increasing and that's the first time we've seen that since we began tracking possible accommodations, and it was really around the card and home equity. All the others really remain steady.David Fieldhouse: We are forecasting that delinquencies will rise. So, if payments took a holiday in the summer, and we didn't see any delinquencies in the summer, some of that's going to come due in the fall and heading into the winter. Across the board, our models are forecasting rises in delinquencies. It's definitely very muted in a space like mortgage because it's being supported by a really active, healthy housing market.But when we look at auto, specifically looking at more of the auto finance, we see some problems emerging. Our models are forecasting rises and delinquencies. When we look at bank card or retail card, we are also seeing our forecast driving higher delinquencies. A lot of that has to do with the labor market still being in rough shape. The story of the summer has been that the economy has been bolstered by all the extra disposable income. But once we get into fall, especially if that stimulus doesn't arrive, we're really going to have a credit market in an economic environment with a 7% unemployment rate. That's going to start to really drive up delinquencies.Theresa: Sarah, what do you see as you look at the data on small business credit trends today?Sarah Briscoe: Lending has dropped a little from the short-term increases that we saw earlier this year. So, this month we did see a little lending drop. The biggest drops were accommodations and food, arts and entertainment and education, which makes sense given the uncertainty of the conditions in those industries. Construction is really the only industry that's showing extremely positive growth right now in terms of lending. For delinquency, we're seeing drops. That would be 31 to 90 days past after a steep increase earlier. And in the pandemic, the one to watch with caution is definitely that light delinquency. As we move into the winter, that tends to be an indicator of what's going to happen with the more severe delinquency and default. So, the combination of accommodations right now, outdoor operations coming to an end as we move forward could cause an increase here. That's assuming there's no stimulus. And then default is showing an upward trend with similar trendsis lending. In terms of industries, the same industries that are hard hit: arts and entertainment, food, restaurants, hotels, travel, education. So, the other one we're starting to see small increases is agriculture, which is really interesting. That's definitely one to watch because it's highly seasonal and a lot of times they're making annual payments. ******We want to hear from you! What did you think of this episode? What would you like to hear our experts share in the future? Email us: marketpulsepodcast@equifax.com. RESOURCES mentioned in this podcast:  · CreditForecast.com: Do you have the economic and consumer credit performance you need?  With CreditForecast.com -- a joint product created by Equifax and Moody's Analytics -- you can access data, forecasts, scenarios, analyses and more from analysts you trust. https://www.creditforecast.com · Credit Trends:Do you have the tools you need for adequate forecasting and risk management? Credit Trends by Equifax  is a powerful intelligence tool that delivers the holistic perspective you need to better understand your portfolio and trends in today's changing economic conditions. https://www.equifax.com/business/credit-trends/

Tune in to hear Beacon Pointe Chief Investment Officer, Michael G. Dow, CAIA, CFA, CPA, share his latest market observations in a quick ten minute podcast designed to provide listeners with a regular update on the economy and investments.

How is the COVID resurgence impacting the stock market

Markets, bitcoin, and the dollar had a Reversal Tuesday fueled by Trump's promise of massive artificial fiscal stimulus. Trump trying to buy a second term, but with democrats holding stimulus hostage, stimulus will come with socialist labor laws and Keynesian helicopter money. Betting markets see now see Trump as the underdog. Mandated paid sick leave will hurt employees. Bailouts for oil, airlines, hotels, and cruise ships are just another backdoor bailout for the banks. While all the safe-haven assets dropped today, bitcoin's price rose along with the other risk assets. Bitcoin now trades highly correlated with the stock market. Joe Biden's gender-based VP list is sexist. Bernie Sanders says America's tax system should be more like Sweden, then admits he knows very little about it.   RATE AND REVIEW the Peter Schiff Show Podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/   SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Like and follow Peter Schiff on Facebook http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff

Today Phil Dobbie talks to Prof Steve Keen about Milton Friedman's concept of nominal value ,and how this runs counter to the argument that governments can create money to give the economy a sugar hit. The theory is, we'll realise that the extra helicopter money has devalued the currency so, after an initial burst of growth, we'll realise that we're actually no better off. So where does this theory go wrong? Other than the fact that most money is created by commercial banks, not governments extending their debt. Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.

What a difference a day makes Between Tuesday evening, when the markets first began to realize that Donald Trump was going to win the election and the predictions of collapsing stocks and soaring gold prices appear to be taking hold Because at one point the Dow was down about 800 points and gold was up about $60 All of a sudden, the sentiment started to shift and by the time the U.S. markets had opened for trading Gold had lost its rally, the stock market had recovered its losses And we began a huge rally, in fact, the Dow was up about 1,000 points this week This was one of the biggest up weeks in the Dow since 2011 Also the gold market ended up down, I think it was down about $70 on the week Better than $100 below the high it hit on Tuesday night Silver also down about $1 Gold & silver stocks down closer to 20% The opposite was going on in the bond market, it had its worst week since 2013 It looks like a lot more carnage can come if we really start to break down; yields are still low The yield on the 10-year is just above 2.1 and on the 30-year it's just above 2.9 These are still low yields, but they're not nearly as low as they were What's more important is the momentum in this move and how much higher interest rates could potentially go As this bond bubble deflates What is responsible for this change of heart? Everybody was so convinced that the markets would tank if Trump was elected that we had a 300+ point rally on Monday, the day after the FBI decided that they weren't going to do anything about the Clinton email scandal And the market rallied because people thought, "Oh, OK, this means that Hillary is a shoe-in." And then Trump became President and the market rallied even more And the opposite on gold; gold sold off when it looked like Hillary would win, and it had a big rally when it seemed that she wouldn't After we got Trump, the metals went the other way What is responsible for this change of heart? Remember, I always said if didn't make sense that people thought Hillary was good for the stock market What did Hillary mean for business? More regulation, more government, higher taxes What was Donald Trump promising? He was promising tax cuts, tax reform, repatriation, regulatory reform, repeal Dodd-Frank, repeal Obamacare So he's saying, we're going to take away the regulation, we're going to take away the taxes That has got to be good for the economy, so why were people so excited about Hillary When Trump was talking about a pro-growth, pro-business agenda?