The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series

There are three major obstacles to expanding the U.S. electrical grid: generation capacity, permitting, and large power transformers (LPTs). Let's focus on LPTs today. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hNoqL6

A ban on American crude or diesel exports isn't going to improve energy security; if anything, it will reduce domestic production. The problem lies in geography.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4yaixxq

The U.S. has just announced that it will remove any company or country caught servicing Iranian-owned aircraft from the U.S. dollar system. But these sanctions don't target the IRGC or regime; instead, they impact everyday Iranians in the hope of stirring up a rebellion against the regime. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4d10OQA

The AI race is in full swing. China is chasing digital sovereignty, but there's a glaring hole in that plan...it doesn't have the advanced manufacturing capabilities to achieve it. Here's the real kicker: nobody does. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/46FmVbK

With Ukrainian attacks limiting Russian refining capacity and the Persian Gulf conflict restricting exports through Hormuz and the Red Sea, a diesel shortage is imminent. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4ybp1Mr

The recent series of U.S.-Venezuela oil deals is not quite as significant as it was made out to be. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hfb6PL

Hear me out...everyone has been yelling about AI the past few days, and the reality is that everyone is probably right, but it probably doesn't really matter anyways. Let me explain. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4rqwO6K

Everyone is always so worked up about bear attacks while I'm out backpacking. The problem is that people are referencing the rise in bear attacks in Japan, as if it's the same here in the U.S. The reality is that unless you come across a grizzly without your bear spray, you'll probably be just fine. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

Cobalt is critical for modern batteries, but with over half of global production coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo, it represents one of the great geopolitical vulnerabilities. China controls most of the Cobalt mining in the Congo through coercive labor systems, so if China's system continues on its current path...Cobalt production will crash. Filling China's shoes in Congo is no easy feat. Foreign stabilization and oversight are difficult and aren't likely to come from Western governments. So, Cobalt supplies will collapse. Either the world will find a way forward with less Cobalt, or we'll get really good at recycling it. The scariest piece is that Cobalt isn't the only critical material that's vulnerable, so the era of easy tech advancement powered by cheap, abundant inputs is coming to an end. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

The U.S. military has been seizing Iranian shadow fleet vessels at the instruction of the Trump administration. But until now, they couldn't do anything with that seized cargo. Fear not, the prize court system is here to save the day. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4yD865t

As the global order breaks apart, countries and communities that can incorporate the learnings from early Rome can weather the storm much better than others. We're talking about integrating economies, infrastructure, and security. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

Japan has long been a pioneer in methodologies and technologies to save society from a demographic crisis. Japan's next endeavour is developing AI-powered robots for industrial, agricultural, healthcare, and logistics applications.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/472ikQR

Volodymyr Zelensky's historical legacy is still being written. Sure, he's remained highly popular as a wartime leader and would likely be reelected if elections were held tomorrow. But a lot of his legacy depends upon the outcome of the Ukraine War.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4j2z1D2

We discussed the problems with the Republicans; now let's move on to the Democrats. They've got a different set of problems, but make no mistake, they are just as screwed.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4Ab7tRZ

Trump has adopted a leadership style similar to that of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. That means power is solely concentrated around him, and the party ideology and institutional foundation have been weakened. Without Trump, the Republican Party has no life force. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hfJppF

On the whole, most presidential administrations have limited awareness of things like demographics, trade, geopolitics, and industrial policy. Naturally, government officials view things through a narrow lens corresponding to their background, such as business or academia. So, that's the baseline here.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3UuDIvr

Global trade was once fragmented into many regional economies. Goods like spices traveled overland through countless intermediaries before reaching the gateway cities of Venice, Genoa, Pisa, and Amalfi. So, what can we learn from the glory days of the spice trade?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4dnPf63

Project Vault, the Trump administration's initiative to stockpile critical minerals, is just a small step in the right direction. Sure, buying mineral-rich waste helps the U.S. build reserves, but it's a classic case of giving the man a fish vs. teaching him how to fish.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4xOUjZt

If China and Russia are so buddy-buddy now, why don't they build pipelines across Siberia to bypass the Persian Gulf? There are more issues than I can cover in this video, but here are a couple...Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3SuRttr

Ukraine has created a system to determine which ships belong to the shadow fleet and which belong to one of the major companies. By sourcing ship identities, transponder data, routes, and ports from these companies, Ukraine can strike unidentified vessels with a high degree of confidence.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4cs4P09

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was created in the 70s as a safeguard against major disruptions in oil imports. Well, those 700 million barrels were never used for its intended purpose.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4AbUQGC

While oil is still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, flows remain a fraction of pre-war levels. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

You know what happens when you do exactly what the Chinese government tells you to do? You get sentenced to life in prison. That just happened to Evergrande's former chairman, and it tells you everything you need to know about China's failing real estate system.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4c8Jhpi

A leaked Moscow memo stated that Russian air defenses are being concentrated around the Kremlin. This leaves the broader Moscow region, including refineries and key infrastructure, vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4cJ7y5m

Crippling one of the world's most deeply integrated manufacturing systems probably isn't a great idea, but here we are again.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3UYvZ8M

Following the dumpster fire that was the Iran war, the U.S. is contemplating how and where to redeploy forces to the Middle East.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/45MUx7b

It's always something in the Middle East...and today, it's Syria. Israel and Turkey are competing over what comes next for this country.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4gmboT4

I'm not sure how crossed your wires have to be to side with North Korea over South Korea, but that's exactly what Trump did over the weekend. So, what will this mean for the future of U.S. and South Korean relations?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4c5fXzX

Should Iran manage to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a toll-based waterway, what does the domino effect look like? Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4gF7t58

Ukraine sent a flamboyance of Flamingos (cruise missiles, not those pink things) and struck a Russian space complex in Samara. This complex was responsible for assembling Soyuz-2 rockets, as well as electronics and precision testing.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4wz0xuY

The Strait of Hormuz needs a new model for running things, but copy/pasting the voluntary system used in the Strait of Malacca isn't going to work. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4zpkuaf

The U.S. is hesitant to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles locally, partially to protect U.S. military IP, but more so because it doesn't want Ukraine to do it better.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4qtxJD0

Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are entertaining a NATO-style mutual defense pact. While this alliance might not be practical at this moment, it's a much different conversation in the long run. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fXxzA1

The first of Russia and Iran's aging shadow fleet is sinking. The tanker is carrying ~1 million barrels of crude bound for India, but that oil is already leaking into the water off the Omani coast. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fSbqTM

Russia's strongest military foothold and gateway in the Middle East is now gone. Russia has agreed to end its presence at the Latakia airport and Tartous port, as it hands over the reins to Syria's transitional government. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3UrpKKp

The U.S. ethanol mandate in the early aughts reshaped American agriculture by tying corn production to fuel production; this saw corn demand double, with roughly half the corn crop now tied to biofuels. So, the case for diverting large amounts of U.S. corn into fuel production is now becoming less clear. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4zapxv9

Are there any countries that might be able to ease the global energy stress?Saudi Arabia might be able to ramp up output, but Houthi attacks could take that away in an instant. Producers like Guyana, Brazil, Venezuela, Canada, and Angola can only add small, incremental volumes, but most major expansion projects are years away.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hSheOj

The U.S. shale revolution transformed global energy, but that period of explosive growth is over. Existing pipelines and export infrastructure have reached capacity, meaning future output increases will take a bit of time. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3SiKJhV

As Europe shifts away from Russian natural gas, they have turned to LNG from Qatar to fill the void. Unfortunately, that pivot has brought on its own set of problems. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4cobyIi

Global energy markets are all over the place. So, we're doing a short series on the major energy stressors across the globe and how this all is going to play out. Up first, let's look at the Ukraine War's impact on oil exports from Kazakhstan. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pZs9bb

Following the cyberattacks in Minnesota, many have reached out regarding cyber threats from a national security perspective. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4h7NBIA

Despite China's growing military, it remains constrained by geography and dependent upon U.S. secured trade routes. Even if China manages to expand its Navy to the point where it can break through the First Island Chain, it still needs to find a way to replace the U.S.-maintained international system. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

The Obama and Trump administrations have both made deals with Iran. There are some glaring differences between the two, so let's see which deal came out on top.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

So, you want to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, huh? Good luck finding a replacement route or pipeline that matches the 20 to 22 million barrels of oil that used to transit daily. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

Despite the growing importance of the Arctic, the U.S. continues to move further away from a sustainable operating plan. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fZ0H9V

While the U.S. and South Africa similarly attract migrants from poorer neighboring countries because they are the strongest economies on their respective continents, that's where the similarities stop. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3TIHlx7

Ukrainian President Zelensky has now dismissed two of the most senior military leaders, Defense Minister Fedorov and Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. Beyond the speculation of internal power struggles, these dismissals highlight Ukraine's glaring issues with resource allocation. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

The Houthis are threatening Saudi oil infrastructure, but are they all bark or is there real bite behind the threats? Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4yxVNbc

Ukrainian drone attacks have effectively shut down Russia's use of the Sea of Azov, which is a critical export route for southern Russia. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fxdyih

Most of the data coming out of China isn't worth the paper it's printed on, but there are a handful of metrics that aren't based on estimates. Today, we'll be looking at marriage registrations and what the 6% decline from last year means. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4wKx3L6

Central and Eastern Europe are undergoing major demographic decline. We're talking low birth rates, aging populations, and decades of youth emigration to Western Europe. So, what does this all mean?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4bRUF8y