The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series

Crippling one of the world's most deeply integrated manufacturing systems probably isn't a great idea, but here we are again.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3UYvZ8M

Following the dumpster fire that was the Iran war, the U.S. is contemplating how and where to redeploy forces to the Middle East.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/45MUx7b

It's always something in the Middle East...and today, it's Syria. Israel and Turkey are competing over what comes next for this country.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4gmboT4

I'm not sure how crossed your wires have to be to side with North Korea over South Korea, but that's exactly what Trump did over the weekend. So, what will this mean for the future of U.S. and South Korean relations?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4c5fXzX

Should Iran manage to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a toll-based waterway, what does the domino effect look like? Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4gF7t58

Ukraine sent a flamboyance of Flamingos (cruise missiles, not those pink things) and struck a Russian space complex in Samara. This complex was responsible for assembling Soyuz-2 rockets, as well as electronics and precision testing.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4wz0xuY

The Strait of Hormuz needs a new model for running things, but copy/pasting the voluntary system used in the Strait of Malacca isn't going to work. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4zpkuaf

The U.S. is hesitant to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles locally, partially to protect U.S. military IP, but more so because it doesn't want Ukraine to do it better.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4qtxJD0

Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are entertaining a NATO-style mutual defense pact. While this alliance might not be practical at this moment, it's a much different conversation in the long run. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fXxzA1

The first of Russia and Iran's aging shadow fleet is sinking. The tanker is carrying ~1 million barrels of crude bound for India, but that oil is already leaking into the water off the Omani coast. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fSbqTM

Russia's strongest military foothold and gateway in the Middle East is now gone. Russia has agreed to end its presence at the Latakia airport and Tartous port, as it hands over the reins to Syria's transitional government. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3UrpKKp

The U.S. ethanol mandate in the early aughts reshaped American agriculture by tying corn production to fuel production; this saw corn demand double, with roughly half the corn crop now tied to biofuels. So, the case for diverting large amounts of U.S. corn into fuel production is now becoming less clear. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4zapxv9

Are there any countries that might be able to ease the global energy stress?Saudi Arabia might be able to ramp up output, but Houthi attacks could take that away in an instant. Producers like Guyana, Brazil, Venezuela, Canada, and Angola can only add small, incremental volumes, but most major expansion projects are years away.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4hSheOj

The U.S. shale revolution transformed global energy, but that period of explosive growth is over. Existing pipelines and export infrastructure have reached capacity, meaning future output increases will take a bit of time. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3SiKJhV

As Europe shifts away from Russian natural gas, they have turned to LNG from Qatar to fill the void. Unfortunately, that pivot has brought on its own set of problems. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4cobyIi

Global energy markets are all over the place. So, we're doing a short series on the major energy stressors across the globe and how this all is going to play out. Up first, let's look at the Ukraine War's impact on oil exports from Kazakhstan. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4pZs9bb

Following the cyberattacks in Minnesota, many have reached out regarding cyber threats from a national security perspective. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4h7NBIA

Despite China's growing military, it remains constrained by geography and dependent upon U.S. secured trade routes. Even if China manages to expand its Navy to the point where it can break through the First Island Chain, it still needs to find a way to replace the U.S.-maintained international system. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

The Obama and Trump administrations have both made deals with Iran. There are some glaring differences between the two, so let's see which deal came out on top.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

So, you want to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, huh? Good luck finding a replacement route or pipeline that matches the 20 to 22 million barrels of oil that used to transit daily. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

Despite the growing importance of the Arctic, the U.S. continues to move further away from a sustainable operating plan. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fZ0H9V

While the U.S. and South Africa similarly attract migrants from poorer neighboring countries because they are the strongest economies on their respective continents, that's where the similarities stop. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3TIHlx7

Ukrainian President Zelensky has now dismissed two of the most senior military leaders, Defense Minister Fedorov and Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. Beyond the speculation of internal power struggles, these dismissals highlight Ukraine's glaring issues with resource allocation. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

The Houthis are threatening Saudi oil infrastructure, but are they all bark or is there real bite behind the threats? Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4yxVNbc

Ukrainian drone attacks have effectively shut down Russia's use of the Sea of Azov, which is a critical export route for southern Russia. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fxdyih

Most of the data coming out of China isn't worth the paper it's printed on, but there are a handful of metrics that aren't based on estimates. Today, we'll be looking at marriage registrations and what the 6% decline from last year means. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4wKx3L6

Central and Eastern Europe are undergoing major demographic decline. We're talking low birth rates, aging populations, and decades of youth emigration to Western Europe. So, what does this all mean?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4bRUF8y

The idea of sleeper agents being embedded in the U.S. is largely unrealistic. In contrast, the far more realistic threats that should concern you are short-term operatives carrying out intelligence-gathering or financial activities.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter:https://bit.ly/4pyvttA

We've all seen the headlines lately talking about the proposed data centers across the U.S. While nobody wants these things in their backyard, putting them in space isn't going to solve our problems.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fd7yuR

As sea levels rise, the infrastructure that protects shorelines and prevents coastal flooding will become essential, especially for low-lying countries with more coastal exposure.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fAh3ph

It would appear that my suggestion for everyone to stop doing cocaine hasn't solved the problem, so let's look at some of the solutions others have proposed. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3Td4mIj

Ukraine can strike anywhere across the Black Sea thanks to its Sea Baby naval drones, and since jamming is less effective in open water, Ukraine can remotely guide them toward targets. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4aWOSOO

The South Koreans are going all in on drone warfare, announcing that every soldier will be trained to operate drones. This is a relatively inexpensive way to offset the challenges facing South Korea.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4eSAVnt

The Obama and Trump administrations have both made deals with Iran. There are some glaring differences between the two, so let's see which deal came out on top. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/44jpeAc

The Canadians are fed up with being dependent on U.S. markets for their oil exports. So, they're looking to diversify their export options. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4p9kQNL

The U.S. has finally secured its first contract to manufacture Ukrainian-designed drones, but don't go celebrating quite yet. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4glafgg

Korean exports are up roughly 70% year over year, surpassing $100 billion in a single month. So, what's causing this extreme growth?Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4oW3cg4

Alright, time for a status update on Persian Gulf shipping. Tanker traffic is slowly resuming, and Gulf producers are gradually restarting exports...but let's not go counting chickens quite yet.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fh62ZO

U.S. Oil Export Restrictions Coming Soon || Peter ZeihanIf global energy supplies remain constrained, the U.S. government will prioritize U.S. consumers over international markets. This would take the form of export restrictions.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/44DVFsY

The Ukrainian strike on the Orenburg natural gas processing complex could impact more than just Russia. Unfortunately, Kazakhstan's energy industry is highly dependent upon that facility.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4wdAytr

Ukraine has struck a key semiconductor facility in Voronezh that could significantly weaken the Russians' ability to produce advanced military equipment.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4v1arVE

Russia's logistical nightmare in Crimea is just beginning. With Ukrainian strikes ramping up throughout Russian-held Crimea, Russian authorities have suspended civilian fuel sales since new shipments can't reach the peninsula.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/43SYNkt

Finland knows all too well what a confrontation with Russia would mean. So, the Finns are preparing... Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4afjB9q

The Trump administration has said that it is now policy to not send meaningful reinforcements to Europe in case of a military conflict. Most notably, super carriers, carrier aviation, extra fighter jets, aerial refueling, airlift capacity, air defense, and precision munitions. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

We are still in the midst of a supply disruption of historical magnitude that will not reverse when the bullets stop. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

While Ukraine has dominated drone innovation, Russia's been able to mass-produce proven drone systems at a scale that Ukraine cannot match. The Russians have also been incrementally improving their drone tech. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter:

The joint French and German Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a next-generation fighter jet project, has collapsed. Between conflicting national priorities and countless disagreements, the two countries opted to abandon the project. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

Crimea has become one of the most important fronts in the war in Ukraine. Both the Russians and Ukrainians see Crimea as strategically essential, and neither side is willing to let it go. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4vbW95d

The White House has shared the full tax of the long awaited Iran Deal. It's a doozy. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan

ICE and DHS just got approved for a new funding package that expands resources for immigration enforcement and border security. My primary concern is the economic impact of this new funding, rather than the politics of it all. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4xomte2

The return of the New World screwworm is threatening the U.S. cattle industry, especially in Texas. Typically, this would have been detected early on by agricultural monitoring and disease-detection programs, but those are now gone due to cuts made by the Trump Administration. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4vDUcyr