Podcasts about Malacca

The Strait of Hormuz needs a new model for running things, but copy/pasting the voluntary system used in the Strait of Malacca isn't going to work. Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan Full Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4zpkuaf

//The Wire//2000Z August 14, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DRONE SHOT DOWN OVER LATVIA. WASHINGTON CSG STEAMING WEST TO REPLACE LINCOLN CSG IN ARABIAN SEA. IRANIAN STRIKES CONTINUE IN HORMUZ. WHITE HOUSE AUTHORIZES CIVILIAN COMPANIES TO BEGIN OFFENSIVE CYBER OPERATIONS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: This morning at least one strike on a merchant vessel was reported in the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO published two separate nearly-identical reports under two different reporting numbers, 111-26 and 112-26, both of which took place in the same area.Analyst Comment: Iranian sources claim that these vessels were struck by submarine drones, which (if true) would be the first kind of attack conducted so far during this war. Iran absolutely has this capability, though it is probably more limited to the areas closer to the Iranian coastline. The UKMTO chart provided for the location of both attacks does plot the targeting effort closer to the Iranian coastline than most other attacks, but so far no comment has been made regarding the attack method yet.Red Sea/HOA: This afternoon another series of strikes was reported between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, with the latter conducting another missile strike on an Aramco refinery/processing facility in Najran City, near the Yemeni border. A large fire was reported at this facility following this strike, and Saudi forces have conducted various strikes around Yemen in retaliation.Latvia: This morning NATO aircraft shot down a suspected drone over the Balvi region, near the village of Rugaji. Latvia stated that the incident was a stray drone that entered their airspace due to Russian electronic warfare measures. Only one drone was detected, which was engaged by fighter aircraft.Analyst Comment: This is a tacit admission that the drone was probably Ukrainian, continuing the now long-standing trend of off-course drones entering the airspace of third-party nations. With both Russia and Ukraine sending drone waves comprising of hundreds of drones during each attack, the high failure rate on both sides has resulted in dozens of runaway drone incidents throughout the continent over the past few years.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - Late last night, President Trump signed an Executive Memorandum aimed at combatting cybercrime. The very first section of this order is to effectively privatize offensive cyberattacks on foreign actors. The order outlines a 60-day time limit for establishing a deconfliction process to coordinate attacks carried out by private companies versus those conducted by military forces. The memorandum specifically states that operations resulting in Critical Outcomes (i.e. operations which kill people or are classified as Use of Force) are not authorized.Analyst Comment: This EO is a big deal, as it essentially is a Letter of Marque for private companies to conduct military actions against foreign nationstates in the cyber realm. While this seems cutting-edge and forward thinking in terms of the ever-evolving battlespace...this removes a lot of protections for civilian companies when it comes to warfare. When civilian entities are authorized to engage in offensive military action against a foreign nation, they become lawful combatants. The caveat which states that companies can't kill people is not likely to result in much difference to any actor targeted under this program, and as it stands, any company that participates in this order will be a valid military target which will be targeted by foreign adversaries. In short, if companies want to play ball, they can now do so, but major cyberattacks on civilian targets are going to skyrocket over the next few weeks.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, several logistical and leadership shakeups have settled in throughout the region. Within Iran, six new commanders have been officially promoted to new positions throughout the General Staff, most of whom are younger hardliners who are of the mind to continue the war. These promotions include Ahmad Vahidi, who has been promoted to the Commander in Chief of the IRGC. On the American side, the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN CSG is planned to move off station when she is replaced by the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON CSG within a few days.This relief comes a few days after reports emerged regarding the deteriorating conditions onboard the LINCOLN. Over the past few days, reports of multiple sailors within this strike group attempting to take their own lives have hit the media, which CENTCOM has flatly denied. However, one day after these reports started circulating, the WASHINGTON was observed steaming through the Strait of Malacca. The LINCOLN was officially last reported in port in Guam on December 11th, 2025 and has not conducted a single port call since that time.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Was the Ourang Medan a real ghost ship—or one of the greatest maritime legends ever created?The crew of the Ourang Medan were reportedly found dead aboard their ship in the waters of the Strait of Malacca in the late 1940s. Their bodies were said to have been discovered sprawled across the ship, their faces frozen in expressions of terror, and then came the chilling message allegedly sent from the vessel: “I die.”Before anyone could uncover the truth, the Ourang Medan caught fire and exploded, sending the ship and its secrets to the bottom of the sea.But did the Ourang Medan really exist? Was the crew killed by toxic gas, a dangerous cargo, or something far more mysterious? And how much of the story is actually true? In this episode of The Book of the Dead, we dive into one of the most infamous maritime mysteries ever told: the legend of the Ourang Medan, the ghost ship of Southeast Asia.Connect with us on Social Media!You can find us at:Instagram: @bookofthedeadpodX: @bkofthedeadpodFacebook: The Book of the Dead PodcastTikTok: BookofthedeadpodOr visit our website at www.botdpod.comFeaturing a Promo for Murder Unscripted:Veteran true-crime producer, Ed (Forensic Files, Cold Case Files, City Confidential) and his crime encyclopedia gal pal, Melissa, bring you the most immersive podcast in the genre - breaking down the barrier between fan and creator.Listen HereCover ups after the war. (n.d.). Pacific Atrocities Education.Gov, N. O. O. R. a. R. U. (n.d.). NITROGLYCERIN, DESENSITIZED, [LIQUID] | CAMEO Chemicals | NOAA. Hewitt, L. (2020, October 27). Tragedy on the S.S. Ourang Medan – Fact or Legend? Historic Mysteries.  A, L. (2022, June 3). Unresolved: What Happened To The Ourang Medan — And Did It Exist At All? The Ghost in My MachineRipley's Believe It or Not. (2020, February 19). The Mysterious Tale Of The S.S. Ourang Medan Ghost Ship. Ripley's Believe It or Not! The Associated Press. (1940, November 22). Crew dies in SOS mystery. The Daily Mirror, 11.The Shipyard. (2021, October 27). How to Sink a Ghost-Ship: The Story of the SS Ourang Medan. The SS Ourang Medan - the Philadelphia Experiment from A-Z. (2025, December 16). The Philadelphia Experiment From A-Z.Troutner, A. (2022, September 14). The Strange Tale of the Mysterious Dutch Ghost Ship Ourang Medan. HowStuffWorks.Unit 731 - Nuclear Museum. (n.d.). Nuclear Museum. If you enjoyed the episode, consider leaving a review or rating! It helps more than you know! If you have a case suggestion, or want attention brought to a loved one's case, email me at bookofthedeadpod@gmail.com with Case Suggestion in the subject line.Stay safe, stay curious, and stay vigilant.

When geopolitical chaos erupts—Iranian tankers in the dark fleet, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Russian refineries under fire—oil prices should skyrocket. Yet here we are in August 2024 with WTI crude at just $83 a barrel, and the market hasn't collapsed. Why? Because the U.S. is producing nearly 14 million barrels a day, pipelines are bypassing chokepoints, and refineries are running flat out. But there's a catch. In this episode of the Energy Impact Podcast, Trisha Curtis—CEO of PetroNode, Chief Economist of the American Energy Institute, and Senior Consultant at the U.S. Department of Energy—joins David Blackmon and Stu Turley to break down the real story behind oil markets. They debate whether prices reflect reality, expose the refining capacity crisis that's keeping gas prices high, and challenge the media narratives that get it wrong.From China's strategic stockpiling to Iran's fading leverage to why the oil industry desperately needs better PR, this conversation separates market hype from hard data—and reveals what's really at stake for American energy security.Connect with Trisha Curtis at https://www.linkedin.com/in/trisha-curtis-petronerds/ or  @petronerds633  on YouTubeThis is also going out on David Blackmon's podcast, Energy Impacts.Connect with David on his LinkedIn here https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-blackmon-2325189/1. U.S. Oil Production & Global Market DominanceThe hosts emphasize that the U.S. produces nearly 14 million barrels per day, making it the world's largest oil producer. This production level hasn't received adequate attention in media coverage, despite its significant geopolitical and economic implications. The Permian Basin, particularly in Texas and New Mexico, is driving record output growth.2. Oil Market Resilience During Geopolitical DisruptionsDespite major disruptions—including attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea blockades by Houthis, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict—the oil market has adapted remarkably well. The hosts credit market forces, refinery efficiency, and alternative supply routes (like the East-West Pipeline) for preventing catastrophic price spikes that many predicted.3. Current Oil Pricing ($83/barrel WTI)The discussion explores why oil prices have remained relatively moderate despite geopolitical chaos. They debate whether prices reflect reality, with consideration for tanker insurance costs, physical delivery premiums, and crack spreads (refinery profit margins).4. Refining Capacity CrisisA critical issue: the U.S. has 128 operating refineries with an average age of 75-80 years, and only one new refinery (Brownsville) is coming online by 2027. California is losing refining capacity (6 of 7 refineries slated to close), which will have serious economic consequences. Refining capacity is the key bottleneck limiting gasoline and diesel price relief.5. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) & ExportsThe hosts discuss the SPR release strategy and defend continued crude oil and refined product exports as essential to global energy security. They emphasize that allowing exports supports the market and benefits U.S. energy interests.6. China's Energy Strategy & StockpilingChina has significantly reduced oil imports (down 5 million barrels/day) and is drawing on massive strategic reserves. The hosts suggest China is using this period as a "test run" for potential future blockades (like closing the Strait of Malacca during a Taiwan conflict).7. Middle East Geopolitical ComplexityThe discussion covers Iran's leverage (tanker fleet, strait control), OPEC's fragmentation (UAE's departure), Iraq's alignment with Iran, and the role of alternative pipelines reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.8. Turkey, Pakistan & Regional MediationThe hosts highlight emerging geopolitical tensions involving Turkey and Pakistan as mediators, with concerns about extremism funding and the potential for regional escalation.9. Industry Communication & LeadershipThe hosts criticize the oil and gas industry for poor public relations and not taking credit for market stability and affordable energy. They call for better industry leadership and advocacy.This podcast presents a nuanced view of global energy markets, emphasizing market adaptation, U.S. strategic advantages, and the critical importance of refining infrastructure and policy decisions around exports and reserves.Check out the Energy News Beat Substack at https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/Check out David Blackmon's Substack at https://blackmon.substack.com/

When geopolitical chaos erupts—Iranian tankers in the dark fleet, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Russian refineries under fire—oil prices should skyrocket. Yet here we are in August 2024 with WTI crude at just $83 a barrel, and the market hasn't collapsed. Why? Because the U.S. is producing nearly 14 million barrels a day, pipelines are bypassing chokepoints, and refineries are running flat out. But there's a catch. In this episode of the Energy Impact Podcast, Trisha Curtis—CEO of PetroNode, Chief Economist of the American Energy Institute, and Senior Consultant at the U.S. Department of Energy—joins David Blackmon and Stu Turley to break down the real story behind oil markets. They debate whether prices reflect reality, expose the refining capacity crisis that's keeping gas prices high, and challenge the media narratives that get it wrong.From China's strategic stockpiling to Iran's fading leverage to why the oil industry desperately needs better PR, this conversation separates market hype from hard data—and reveals what's really at stake for American energy security.Connect with Trisha Curtis at https://www.linkedin.com/in/trisha-curtis-petronerds/ or  @petronerds633  on YouTubeThis is also going out on David Blackmon's podcast, Energy Impacts.Connect with David on his LinkedIn here https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-blackmon-2325189/1. U.S. Oil Production & Global Market DominanceThe hosts emphasize that the U.S. produces nearly 14 million barrels per day, making it the world's largest oil producer. This production level hasn't received adequate attention in media coverage, despite its significant geopolitical and economic implications. The Permian Basin, particularly in Texas and New Mexico, is driving record output growth.2. Oil Market Resilience During Geopolitical DisruptionsDespite major disruptions—including attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea blockades by Houthis, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict—the oil market has adapted remarkably well. The hosts credit market forces, refinery efficiency, and alternative supply routes (like the East-West Pipeline) for preventing catastrophic price spikes that many predicted.3. Current Oil Pricing ($83/barrel WTI)The discussion explores why oil prices have remained relatively moderate despite geopolitical chaos. They debate whether prices reflect reality, with consideration for tanker insurance costs, physical delivery premiums, and crack spreads (refinery profit margins).4. Refining Capacity CrisisA critical issue: the U.S. has 128 operating refineries with an average age of 75-80 years, and only one new refinery (Brownsville) is coming online by 2027. California is losing refining capacity (6 of 7 refineries slated to close), which will have serious economic consequences. Refining capacity is the key bottleneck limiting gasoline and diesel price relief.5. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) & ExportsThe hosts discuss the SPR release strategy and defend continued crude oil and refined product exports as essential to global energy security. They emphasize that allowing exports supports the market and benefits U.S. energy interests.6. China's Energy Strategy & StockpilingChina has significantly reduced oil imports (down 5 million barrels/day) and is drawing on massive strategic reserves. The hosts suggest China is using this period as a "test run" for potential future blockades (like closing the Strait of Malacca during a Taiwan conflict).7. Middle East Geopolitical ComplexityThe discussion covers Iran's leverage (tanker fleet, strait control), OPEC's fragmentation (UAE's departure), Iraq's alignment with Iran, and the role of alternative pipelines reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.8. Turkey, Pakistan & Regional MediationThe hosts highlight emerging geopolitical tensions involving Turkey and Pakistan as mediators, with concerns about extremism funding and the potential for regional escalation.9. Industry Communication & LeadershipThe hosts criticize the oil and gas industry for poor public relations and not taking credit for market stability and affordable energy. They call for better industry leadership and advocacy.This podcast presents a nuanced view of global energy markets, emphasizing market adaptation, U.S. strategic advantages, and the critical importance of refining infrastructure and policy decisions around exports and reserves.Check out the Energy News Beat Substack at https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/from-chanakya-to-ai-india-needs-its-own-management-model-14038647.html/ampIf you interpret the term ‘management' broadly, that is, to include not only the day to day running of companies, but also the bigger picture of governance, leadership, strategy, geoeconomics, and even civilizational survival, the clear answer is that there indeed is a unique Indian style of management.Whether it has been uniquely successful in the past is an open question, and given the ravages of invasion, one may be tempted to say it hasn't been; similarly whether, or how, it is appropriate for today's and tomorrow's needs is another good question.But it is useful to identify what may in fact be the factors underlying such a style of management, and there are likely three reasons: civilizational, cultural, and practical.CivilizationalThe first is perhaps the idea of Bharatiya exceptionalism: that is to say that Bharat exemplifies a singular civilizational thread that goes back to the ancient four-fold Hindu idea of purusharthas: dharma, artha, kama, and moksha. It is a holistic approach, perhaps most evident in the Bhagavad Gita, with its emphasis on ethical leadership and nishkama karma.It is certainly influenced by the topography and geography of the land, Jambudvipa, which has natural boundaries marking its extremities: Bharat, the land between the mountains and the sea.The climate and the rivers and the vegetation reflect a reality of natural abundance: what Rajiv Malhotra referred to when he spoke of the ‘religions of the forest' versus ‘the religions of the desert'. Bharat, in general, had a tropical cornucopia of food, and perhaps that was reflected early in a certain tolerance for not only for other humans, but also for all life.It is notable that among all the lands that were populated early, Bharat was the one that retained its megafauna the best. All other human settlements saw the rapid extinction of large animals. Sustainability, a key mantra these days, was built into the Bharatiya outlook all along.This same generosity was seen in trade patterns in the Indian Ocean as well: from 5,000 years ago, Bharatiya sailors executed cross-oceanic voyages, eastward during the southwest monsoon and vice versa during the northeast monsoon. The trade benefited everybody, as valuable goods were exchanged, in an illustration of the theory of comparative advantage.The infrastructure for trade was brilliantly executed: not only the building of ocean-going ships that plied the Spice Route, and the ability to defend them from pirates, but also the subtler aspects: the “multi-protocol switch” that allowed trading guilds along the peninsular coasts to facilitate trade between say, Romans, and say, Chinese, who had different languages and currencies. Bharatiya traders smoothed the transactions.Furthermore, the venture capital and banking services for the trading guilds were provided by Hindu temples.Pax Indica was benign; for instance, 1,001 years ago Rajendra Chola dispatched a large fleet to open up the Straits of Malacca for trade when the Srivijaya Empire interfered with it. The contrast with the current standoff in the Straits of Hormuz is salutary. Yes, it is necessary to ensure freedom of navigation, and the commons, with deadly force if need be.There was a very real notion of the ‘common good'. For instance, perhaps the greatest intellectual contribution of Bharat was innovation and the creation of Intellectual Property, and then making it freely available to all: not hoarding it for individual benefit.The model was that scholars and intellectuals were frugal, that the State (king or temple) provided for their basic needs, and in return, they produced masterworks over which they, unlike patenting in the western sense, did not claim any rights.Thus you have intellectual giants such as Brahmagupta with his invention of the zero, Panini with his context-free grammar, Madhava with his infinite series for trigonometric functions, and much later Ramanujan who wrote down his extraordinary theorems for all, and JC Bose whose seminal wireless communication discoveries he refused to patent, on principle. In fact, one could argue that the entire idea of “open-source” is a Bharatiya invention.The natural resources of the Indian subcontinent along with the industriousness of its residents allowed for the creation of tremendous wealth; but in the “Guns vs Butter” dichotomy in economics, Bharat neglected to build the guns; which meant that often invaders with guns were able to capture the butter.Management theory suggests that there are only three sustainable business strategies for long-term viability: 1) customer intimacy, 2) cost leadership, 3) innovation. Bharat historically chose innovation, and its native genius may result in the flowering of an intellectual revolution as the effects of impoverishment by conquest begin to recede.CulturalIt is interesting to note that Bharatiyas are different from both Occidentals, (e.g. the Anglosphere) and Orientals (e.g. East Asians) culturally. The stereotypes (with good reason) is that Occidentals are highly individualistic and that Orientals are highly group-oriented. Bharatiyas fall somewhere in between, being fairly individualistic, and gregarious, yet only moderately group-oriented.This has implications for governance. A highly individualistic society needs powerful laws that control individuals, including their tendencies for mischief. Thus, for example, the US is a highly regulated society, and their police are quite capable of unleashing deadly force. A highly group oriented society like Japan has norms that mean children clean after themselves in schools, and that discipline carries over into adulthood as well.Bharatiyas are neither; the net result is that there is a distinction between public spaces and private spaces. While people may keep their homes spotlessly clean, they have no problem littering anywhere or throwing trash just over their walls onto the public street. They also have no problem breaking traffic rules. “The tragedy of the commons” is rife.There is also the cultural memory of shortages and deprivation. Since people have grown up in a shortage economy, there is a tendency to hoard, cut corners, to pay bribes, to find any way of getting a slight advantage over others. Thus the unnecessary pushiness on roads, the inability to queue up anywhere, and especially the unwillingness to let people exit a lift before you enter.This applies to groups as well, as is seen in the “race to the bottom” in the case of the backward, the most backward, and the extremely backward designations intended for government largesse.There is also the unfortunate feeling that a contract is just a mere annoyance, not something that is to be followed to the letter. Punctuality is a small indicator of this: Bharatiyas on average feel justified in being late and casually making excuses. In contrast, both Anglosphere people and many East Asians (especially the Japanese) are punctual, and they can be trusted to deliver absolutely whatever they promise, whenever they promise.Interestingly, Chinese, like Bharatiyas, do not have integrity in terms of keeping promises, which is a problem in doing business with both. In Bharat, there is also extreme reluctance to deliver bad news until the very last minute, for instance the day before something is due to be delivered. This can be very difficult for partners to deal with.Perhaps all this makes Bharat a low-trust society. As a result of all this, doing business in Bharat takes twice as long, and managers need to have contingency plans, and to do intrusive ongoing audits to ensure that things are on time.But there are inspiring counter-examples of community action and high trust. One is the re-greening of the Aravallis with the support of the Tarun Bharat Sangh and Rajendra Singh: a few villages built simple check dams based on traditional knowledge, bringing back an extinct river.PracticalIn addition to the refined heights of the civilizational perspective, Bharat also excelled in the theories of tactical management and even realpolitik. Even though there is a tendency in certain circles to lionize Machiavelli, von Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, it is likely that Chanakya outdid all of them in the single-minded pursuit of strategy and governance, and he wrote his masterwork a millennium before them.Chanakya's ideas of statecraft are notable for their cold realism. He focuses on the creation of leverage and thus power for the sovereign. Speaking of leverage, or competitive advantage, we have seen how China has turned its control of the rare earths supply chain into a weapon; similarly the US has its technology (the recent denial of Anthropic Mythos to all foreigners) as well as its control of the SWIFT network of financial transactions. These can be coercive.Another of Chanakya's supremely rational assumptions is that your neighbor is likely to be your enemy, if not today, maybe tomorrow, simply because of proximity and the resulting irritants. Thus it becomes useful to make common cause with their neighbor.Taking this one step further, you arrive at the Mandala theory of statecraft: a series of concentric circles (for convenience of depiction), where you cultivate your neighbor's neighbors, and also the Far Emperor or udasina (indifferent power), a player outside the immediate neighborhood, but powerful, and who can have a significant impact on your local power politics. Clearly Indian foreign policy has looked upon the US as a Far Emperor; similarly Indian firms may look upon Big Tech companies as Far Emperors in their local struggles.Chanakya does not shy away from the harsh realities of power politics. Matsya nyaya, where big fish eat little fish, is a crystal-clear exposition of the idea that might is right: which we see in contemporary affairs, both business and international relations, on a daily basis. In addition, he recognized that information is the key to advantage (as Big Tech demonstrates today), and as such, he made it a priority to collect data, including through a network of spies. This leads to intrigue, infiltration, and the creation of internal dissent among the enemy.Chanakya's four classic stages of competition are notable: sama, dana, bheda and danda. Of these, possibly the one that is most widely practised today is bheda,the exploitation of internal fault lines within the enemy. With the “million mutinies” in India, such as farmer protests, CAA riots, and the recent ‘cockroach' riots, it is clear that there are “toolkits” in play. There is much information warfare, as seen in relentless bot attacks on Bharatiyas on social media.In modern management terms, India should learn from the successful business models of the G2 powers. The US as a nation, and its big firms, typically use overwhelming force (financial, technological or military, as the case may be) to overwhelm their foes. The metaphor is American football: massive force is a major factor, though tactical misdirection is also widespread.China uses a different tactic. It goes for cost leadership by using state-guided industrial policy to build massive over-capacity in selected areas; with fierce internal competition, this leads to plummeting costs. Then by flooding export markets with cheap products, they are able to destroy local players in those markets. A case in point right now is the explosion in cheap generativeAI Large Language Models (LLMs) that are undercutting US firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI.Thus both powers are using their standard operating procedures in generativeAI: US firms are pouring in hundreds of billions of dollars in an effort to corner the market; Chinese firms (and the state) are collapsing the prices in the market.What should India's business model look like in this context? Instead of going head-on against these large economies, India should find ways to thrive around them: for example, look for ‘white spaces' that are not in their gunsights. But these open areas will change rapidly: an example is IT services, which was an opportunity for 20+ years, but not any more.In generativeAI, a sound Bharatiya play might be to avoid over-investment in foundational models, use (Chinese) open-source models and modify them, for example with multi-lingual capabilities; invest in other areas of the stack such as in vertical applications, for instance in agriculture, or medicine, or governance, or jurisprudence. Bharat can use ‘distillation' techniques to reduce the need for data, and also create Small Language Models (SLMs) in narrow domains, e.g. in Indic Knowledge Systems.There is also the salutary example of the operating system, which is arguably the most important piece of software on any machine, because it controls the entire functioning of the system. But Unix, possibly the most capable operating system ever, was open-sourced as Linux, and is freely available and ubiquitous. On the other hand, Microsoft realized its OS, Windows, was a tremendous distribution channel for third-party applications, and has made its trillions based on it. This is what Anthropic, OpenAI et al are betting on.Will the future of LLMs be Unix/Linux (open source) or Windows? Nobody knows at the moment, and therefore it may be best to avoid that battle, and focus on other layers of the stack, such as applications (higher layers) or hardware and GCCs (lower layers).Nimbleness and innovation are key when you are dancing with elephants. Direct confrontation is a bad idea, as in the metaphor of the tree and the cane from the Mahabharata's Santi Parva, where Bhishma comments on the dialogue between the Ocean and Ganga. He suggests that as canes bend to the river, but trees do not, it is best to yield tactically to superior force.Bharat therefore has to evolve a business model of its own that is sustainable in the long run, and based on its own capabilities. At the moment, a good test case is generativeAI. Another is aerospace, where as soon as ISRO began to offer niche markets to the private sector, there has been a virtual explosion in startups doing interesting things.ConclusionTradition and ancient texts give Bharat a set of management practices and principles that may have within them the basis for a unique business model that can outperform the competition, which at the moment consists of American-style private capitalism and Chinese-style state-controlled enterprises.2300 words, 4 August 2026 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe

Kurt tells Luis about the history of Lichtenstein's executions and one legendary thief & the most feared pirate Malaysia has ever seen.Check out our social medias for pictures from the episode:Instagram: @unbelievablepodTwitter: @unbelievablepcSee us go goblin mode on the reels:TikTok: @unbelievablepodYouTube: @unbelievablepodcast_yt

Iran warns sustained naval pressure risks wider war as Oman advances strait plan伊朗警告：持续海上施压或将引发更大规模战争，阿曼推进海峡管控方案US President Donald Trump said on Monday that "very friendly negotiations" with Iran were underway and touted the US Navy's "good blockade", even as Tehran warned that a continuous naval blockade would amount to an expansion of the war.美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周一称，美国正与伊朗进行“十分友好的谈判”，并夸赞美国海军实施的封锁举措成效良好；与此同时，德黑兰方面警告，持续海上封锁行为等同于扩大战事。Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters accused the US on Monday of threatening Iranian vessels, commercial ships and tankers in Iran's coastal and territorial waters over the past three days as part of an "illegal naval blockade".伊朗哈塔姆安比亚中央总部周一指责美国近三日在伊朗沿岸及领海水域，威胁伊朗船只、民用商船与油轮，实施非法海上封锁。"We warn that this American action is considered an expansion of war in the region," it said in a statement, adding that Iran's armed forces would respond to any threat posed by the US military.该机构在声明中表示：“我们警告，美方此举属于在中东地区扩大战争范畴”，并补充称伊朗武装部队将对美军带来的任何威胁予以回击。Trump also told US news outlet Axios that Washington was engaged in "very deep talks" with Tehran, but warned, "If they don't work out, we will go back to very strong military action."特朗普还向美国新闻网阿克西奥斯透露，华盛顿正与德黑兰展开深度磋商，但同时发出警告：“倘若谈判无果，美国将重启高强度军事行动。”Control of the Strait of Hormuz has remained a major point of contention since Iran and the US reached an interim memorandum of understanding last month, with tensions over the strategic waterway repeatedly fueling regional instability.自上月美伊达成临时谅解备忘录以来，霍尔木兹海峡的管控权一直是双方主要争端焦点，这条战略水道周边的紧张局势不断加剧，持续破坏地区稳定。Oman has proposed a joint regional mechanism for managing the strait with voluntary fees, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing a Gulf source.路透社周二援引海湾地区消息人士消息称，阿曼提议建立区域性联合海峡管控机制，并推行自愿缴费制度。The proposal, which reportedly has regional backing, would prevent Iran from exercising sole control over the waterway. It is modeled on the Strait of Malacca, where users voluntarily contribute to navigation, environmental protection and search-and-rescue efforts.据悉该提案已获得多国支持，旨在杜绝伊朗独自掌控这条航道。方案参照马六甲海峡管理模式设计：航道使用方自愿出资，用于航道通航维护、生态保护以及海上搜救工作。Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi held phone talks with his counterparts in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran to discuss ways to advance "practical, fair and sustainable understandings" on navigation and supply chain flows through the strait, Oman's Foreign Ministry said on Monday.阿曼外交部周一发布消息，阿曼外交大臣巴德尔同卡塔尔、科威特、沙特阿拉伯、埃及以及伊朗外长通电话，商议如何围绕海峡通航、供应链运输达成务实、公平且具备长效性的共识。The developments follow weekend talks between Iranian and Omani officials on navigation security, transit arrangements and sovereign rights, according to Tehran.伊朗方面表示，上述外交互动的背景是：上周末伊阿两国官员已就通航安全、过境安排以及国家主权事宜举行会谈。Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting Washington for his eighth meeting with Trump since the US president began his second term, which is "more than any other international leader", according to Netanyahu's office.另一边，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡正在出访华盛顿，这是特朗普开启第二任期以来二人第八次会面；以色列总理办公室称，会面频次远超其他各国领导人。"We will discuss all the issues on the agenda, first and foremost, Iran," Netanyahu said before leaving for the US on Monday. "Naturally, our goal is to safeguard our security and also to expand the circle of peace around us."内塔尼亚胡周一启程赴美前表态：“我们将商讨所有议程议题，伊朗问题位列首位。我们的核心目标是保障以色列自身安全，同时不断扩大周边和平伙伴圈层。”Sujata Ashwarya, a professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies at Jamia Millia Islamia University in New Delhi, told China Daily that Netanyahu has little influence over when Washington launches attacks and is unlikely to use the meeting to press for it.新德里的贾米亚·米利亚伊斯兰教大学西亚研究中心教授苏雅塔·阿什瓦里亚接受《中国日报》采访时表示，内塔尼亚胡无法左右美国发动军事打击的时机，也难以借此次会晤敦促美方开战。"His purpose is to shape the terms of whatever settlement follows, which is where Israeli absence from the negotiations has cost most," Ashwarya said.阿什瓦里亚称：“内塔尼亚胡此行意在敲定后续任何和平协议的条款内容；以色列此前始终未能参与谈判，已经为此蒙受了诸多损失。”She explained that the interim US-Iran deal lacked any agreement on Israel's main sticking points: limits on Iran's ballistic missile program, preventing the rebuilding of its network of regional allies, and International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of nuclear sites.她解释道，美伊临时协议并未敲定以色列最为关切的几大分歧事项：限制伊朗弹道导弹研发计划、阻止伊朗重建地区盟友网络、允许国际原子能机构核查伊朗核设施。Ashwarya added that Netanyahu's departing remarks were "revealing".阿什瓦里亚补充说道，内塔尼亚胡临行前的一番话颇具深意，暴露了其真实诉求。A prime minister who measures a relationship in meetings cannot yet measure it in outcomes, she said.她表示：一位只能依靠会面次数来衡量双边关系的总理，尚且无法用实际成果印证两国情谊。"His stated goal also carries a second clause, expanding the circle of peace, and with Saudi normalization now attached to Washington's nuclear offer to Riyadh, that is where Israeli leverage actually sits," she said.“他宣称的目标包含两层含义，扩大和平圈层便是其二；当下沙特关系正常化事宜与美国向沙特提供核合作提议深度绑定，这恰恰是以色列手中最关键的筹码。”The two leaders want different things from the same war, she added. "Trump wants closure he can present as an achievement; Netanyahu wants Iranian recovery prevented, which is served by keeping options open."她最后指出，两位领导人对于这场冲突抱有截然不同的诉求：特朗普希望结束争端，并将停战包装成自身执政政绩；内塔尼亚胡则意图遏制伊朗国力复苏，而保留一切军事选项最有利于实现这一目的。tout /taʊt/大肆宣扬；吹捧；标榜contention /kənˈtenʃn/争端；争执；争论焦点interim /ˈɪntərɪm/临时的；过渡性的memorandum /ˌmeməˈrændəm/备忘录ballistic /bəˈlɪstɪk/弹道的leverage /ˈliːvərɪdʒ/影响力；筹码；优势

The biggest oil shock in modern history came and went without the catastrophe everyone expected. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, analysts warned that oil could hit $200 a barrel, but the global economy avoided that fate. The Trump administration has argued that the crisis was contained thanks to their aggressive action, but they may be taking the wrong lessons from the avoidance of that apocalyptic scenario. What happened was the largest unexpected swing in global oil balances: China quietly cut crude oil imports by more than five million barrels a day. Yet there was no corresponding collapse in economic activity, no obvious drop in mobility, and no official explanation from Beijing. Somehow, China stopped buying oil from the rest of the world and started drawing from stockpiles we can't fully observe. That single decision may have done more to prevent a global energy crisis than anything Washington or OPEC accomplished. This matters because it demonstrates that China likely has a stronger discretionary policy lever than the West does. The West is really good at market-driven, private-sector oil production. But through this crisis, we've seen that Washington does not have the scale of discretionary policy control that China or OPEC does. This time, China cooperated and did the good thing, at least for the broad economic picture — but we cannot rely on that in the future, and that tool can be used against the West as easily as for it. Western governments must grapple with that discretionary gap and not rest on their private-sector bona fides to get through the next crisis. Arnab Datta, managing director of policy implementation at Employ America, and Rory Johnston, oil analyst and founder of Commodity Context, join ChinaTalk to discuss: Why Rory's own prediction of $200 oil never happened and why J.D. Vance is thanking the wrong people. How China quietly cut crude imports by five million barrels a day with zero visible impact on domestic mobility, and the detective work analysts use to peer into Beijing's black-box inventories. Competing theories for why Beijing backstopped the global oil market — self-interested altruism, a backroom deal during the state visit, or a dry run for a Malacca blockade in the event of a Taiwan contingency. What India, the Gulf states, and the rest of the world learned from the Iran War and why strategic reserves are suddenly back in fashion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The biggest oil shock in modern history came and went without the catastrophe everyone expected. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, analysts warned that oil could hit $200 a barrel, but the global economy avoided that fate. The Trump administration has argued that the crisis was contained thanks to their aggressive action, but they may be taking the wrong lessons from the avoidance of that apocalyptic scenario. What happened was the largest unexpected swing in global oil balances: China quietly cut crude oil imports by more than five million barrels a day. Yet there was no corresponding collapse in economic activity, no obvious drop in mobility, and no official explanation from Beijing. Somehow, China stopped buying oil from the rest of the world and started drawing from stockpiles we can't fully observe. That single decision may have done more to prevent a global energy crisis than anything Washington or OPEC accomplished. This matters because it demonstrates that China likely has a stronger discretionary policy lever than the West does. The West is really good at market-driven, private-sector oil production. But through this crisis, we've seen that Washington does not have the scale of discretionary policy control that China or OPEC does. This time, China cooperated and did the good thing, at least for the broad economic picture — but we cannot rely on that in the future, and that tool can be used against the West as easily as for it. Western governments must grapple with that discretionary gap and not rest on their private-sector bona fides to get through the next crisis. Arnab Datta, managing director of policy implementation at Employ America, and Rory Johnston, oil analyst and founder of Commodity Context, join ChinaTalk to discuss: Why Rory's own prediction of $200 oil never happened and why J.D. Vance is thanking the wrong people. How China quietly cut crude imports by five million barrels a day with zero visible impact on domestic mobility, and the detective work analysts use to peer into Beijing's black-box inventories. Competing theories for why Beijing backstopped the global oil market — self-interested altruism, a backroom deal during the state visit, or a dry run for a Malacca blockade in the event of a Taiwan contingency. What India, the Gulf states, and the rest of the world learned from the Iran War and why strategic reserves are suddenly back in fashion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Episode #573: “I brought you here to the United States not so you could forget our homeland,” Salih Hudayar remembers his father telling him, “but so you could become educated and one day return to liberate our people and our country from the Chinese occupation.” Hudayar, now Foreign Minister of the East Turkistan Government in Exile, traces his political life to that instruction. Born in 1993 near Kashgar, he grew up amid tightening state control and left for the United States as a child after his father fled repression. He situates the current crisis within a longer history that includes two short-lived East Turkistan republics before Communist consolidation in 1949. He describes a post-2009 escalation of surveillance, detention, and forced labor under the banner of counterterrorism. Citing Chinese government documents and satellite imagery, he argues that mass internment, religious repression, family separation, and demographic engineering amount to genocide. Now based in Washington DC, Hudayar presses U.S. lawmakers to move beyond condemnation. Recognition of genocide, he says, is not enough without confronting what he calls the root problem of colonial rule. Running a government in exile, dispersed across continents and sustained by diaspora donations, requires coordination, discipline, and constant vigilance against external pressure. Myanmar surfaces repeatedly in the interview as both comparison and caution. Hudayar draws parallels between the Rohingya genocide case and his own effort to bring a complaint before the International Criminal Court, noting that the Rohingya precedent shaped the jurisdictional argument he pursued. He also references Myanmar's strategic importance to China's Belt and Road Initiative, particularly access to the western coast and energy corridors that could reduce Beijing's vulnerability in the Strait of Malacca. At a broader level, he frames the Uyghur and Myanmar struggles as linked by geography and power politics—both situated along China's periphery, both affected by Beijing's economic leverage and security influence, and both navigating how global powers respond when human rights concerns collide with strategic interests.

Beware! Pakistan to Fight Internal Forces by Attacking India? | India's Malacca Capture | Ajay Raina

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/the-old-quad-is-dying-time-for-a-new-quad-14030966.htmlThe Quad, a 2007 partnership broadly intended to contain China's hegemonistic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, was a brainchild of then-Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. It makes sense: China is rampaging in its neighborhood, and gives every sign of wanting to either grab territory that belongs to others, or bully them into acquiescence and tributary status.The belligerence that created the current Chinese empire, that is the forced absorption of Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria into the core Han coastal heartland, is part of a harking back to ancient Chinese empires. Xi Jinping, perhaps even more than Mao, embodies a hankering to be the almighty King-Emperor of the erstwhile Middle KingdomThe US unwittingly allowed China to rapidly de-industrialize it post joining the WTO, and to come up with a business plan that calls for massive over-production and the resultant price collapse, which is a template they use to rape and pillage industry after industry. A recent casualty is Germany's prized automobile industry: bellwether Volkswagen has been forced to lay off 100,000 workers, brutalized by a tsunami of Chinese electric vehicles.However, as Utpal Kumar points out in an insightful essay, all is not well in Xi's kingdom: e.g., the debt mountain, paranoia as seen in regular purges of military brass, and propaganda that conceals all bad news (did you hear of a small plane hitting a tower in central Beijing? Yes, a mini-9/11. But the information was blanked out). Continuing rural poverty is also censored, although Indians on x.com posted images of extreme filth and poverty, far from the glossy high-rise, bullet-train image that Chinese propaganda projects. Paradoxically, that is precisely what makes China yet more dangerous: it will probably lash out in external adventurism to preserve legitimacy internally.Thus the need for sober containment of China's destructive power. The US, which has been the natural candidate for reining in this rogue power, has now demonstrated that it is retrenching. It has, for instance, demonstrated that it is no longer willing to indefinitely support its NATO allies. The “nuclear umbrella” that it has offered Japan may also be getting a little threadbare.It is likely that President Trump invaded Iran with the good idea of denying China oil both Iranian and Venezuelan oil, as retaliation for China's squeeze on rare earths. Alas, that has turned into a fiasco, creating collateral damage for innocent bystanders such as India. In game-theoretic terms, if an isolationist “Fortress America” mood has descended on the US, then a “G2 condominium” with China may be the simplest option, as I said several years ago.If the US has indeed acquiesced to China being the hegemon in its sphere of influence, namely the Indo-Pacific, then there is good reason for the jilted Quad members (Japan, Australia and India) to enter into bilateral agreements amongst each other to look after their own national interests, including but not limited to Sinophobia. And in fact they have done so.It is true that the Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting in May 2026 in Delhi produced some agreements on critical minerals (clearly a US priority) and surveillance collaboration, but I get the feeling that this is mostly a matter of keeping up appearances. Therefore it is worth pivoting to Japanese PM Takaichi's recent visit to India, and PM Modi's trips to Indonesia and Australia.Japan and India are obvious partners, because their economies are complementary: one is resource- and technology-rich, and labor-poor, and the other is the opposite. There is also an old civilizational link between the two, going back to Bodhidharma from Kanchipuram who embarked from Muziris circa 500CE and established the Zen school of Buddhism in Japan.There are also clear civilizational links between India and Indonesia. Hindu Bali is obvious; but Java, until the Hindu-Buddhist Majapahit Empire was defeated circa 1500CE by Muslim kingdoms (encouraged by the Chinese empire of the time), was also heavily Indianized. As someone who has traveled in both Japan and Indonesia, I was delighted to see Devanagari inscriptions on the Great Bell at Hiroshima, and the Ramayana Ballet at Prambanan temple. विपुलप्रभ अतुल्यनन्त नाथ दिशि विदिशि स्फुरि सर्वबुद्धक्षेत्रा। राग प्रशमि सर्वदोषमोहां नरकगतिस्मि प्रशामि धूमकेतुम्॥१५॥ "The lord of vast light, incomparable and infinite, has illuminated all Buddha countries in all the quarters; he has quieted passions, all sins and errors; he has quieted the fire in the walk of hell." This is the inscription on the Great Bell in Hiroshima. Japan and India signed a series of agreements, including an investment target of Yen 10 trillion (about $66 billion) in areas such as critical minerals, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. They agreed upon a new focus on Artificial Intelligence and quantum technologies and in energy self-reliance, including hydrogen and biogas.They also reaffirmed support for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (let us note that on June 16th the US renamed its Indo-Pacific Command to just “Pacific Command”, a telling admission of retreat. The US may well be abandoning the Indian Ocean just when it is becoming the focus of trade.)The Indonesia-India agreements were significant: they included, for instance, Brahmos and Astra missile systems (which, in conjunction with other ASEAN purchases of Brahmos missiles, creates a potentially integrated sea-denial mechanism against persistent Chinese maritime aggression).Pointedly, there will be joint development on Indonesia's deep-water Sabang Port in Aceh, which is on the Malacca Straits just 90 nautical miles away from India's upcoming Great Nicobar dual-use port.The two ports can form a defensive shield that could deny transit in Malacca to hostile ships and submarines (read Chinese). Since two-thirds of China's trade and energy imports pass through Malacca, this is a potent threat, especially as we have just seen what the siege of Hormuz did to global trade. Let us also remember that, exactly 1,001 years ago, Emperor Rajendra Chola sent a large fleet to open up Malacca when the SriVijaya Empire closed it.There were also agreements on critical minerals (e.g. nickel for EV batteries, as Indonesia has the world's largest reserves, cobalt, etc.), steel, maritime security, and technology cooperation.Let us also remember the trilateral Japan-Indonesia-India naval exercises in the Andaman Sea in February 2026.PM Modi's visit to Australia is the most problematic. Earlier, under Kevin Rudd, a Sinophilic PM, Australia exited the Quad in 2008, effectively making it moribund. Besides, Australia for decades refused sniffily to sell India uranium, despite India being a committed non-proliferator. This may also have had something to do with the UK's (Whitehall's) deleterious influence on Australia.But days ago, Australia committed to supplying uranium to India, in support of the latter's quest for energy security. Oz has apparently learned that cozying up to China is not good for its own economic health.Thus, the quadrilateral of US, Japan, Australia and India may well morph into a quadrilateral of Japan, Indonesia, Australia and India, all united in their concerns about China. The US has a choice: either continue to be the anchor of the Quad (Pentagon?), or be left behind if it insists on retreating into its shell. The former option would be better for all concerned.1150 words, 11 July 2026 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe

Fred sits down with Nneka Chike-Obi from our Sustainability Research team to talk strategies for avoiding a potential chokepoint in the Strait of Malacca, which is key to the shipping of critical minerals used in the energy transition.Click here for appropriate Disclosures, including analyst certifications, and Disclaimers that must be viewed with this podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/MMdPlrQStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research, just search for #HSBCResearch on LinkedIn or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

China Threatens to Block Brahmaputra and Sutlej | India Reminds China of Malacca Straits

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit andrewsullivan.substack.comJohn is a political philosopher. He retired from academia in 2007 as Professor of European Thought at the London School of Economics, and he's now a regular contributor and lead reviewer at the New Statesman. He's the author of two dozen books, and the most recent is The New Leviathans: Thoughts After Liberalism, which we discussed on the Dishcast last year (after first having him on the pod in 2023).For two clips of the episode — on what the Founders would think of the 250th, and sizing up the next prime minister of the UK — head to our YouTube page.Other topics: the deadly heatwave in Europe and its lack of AC; the Putin-esque corruption of Trump; the Joker-esque nature of US politics; civic exhaustion; our broken trust with the rest of the world; losing the Iran War; the stranglehold of Hormuz; fears over the Strait of Malacca; the JCPOA; Fukuyama; edge-lording and DOGE; the embarrassment of Trump's 250; his plunge in the polls; the socialist wins in NYC; DEI collectivism; Vance's Catholicism; Rubio's future; Tucker 2028; the collapse of free speech in higher ed; Keir's departure; Andy Burnham's rise; his neo-Blairite populism; Farage and Reform; Restore Britain; Kemi Badenoch; Scott Wiener hounded by transqueers; masks used by ICE and activists; the surge of antisemitism on the left and right; the Le Pen and Bardella factions; AfD; the EU becoming more right-wing; mass migration and Boris; the Swedish crackdown; Islamism; Meloni becoming a centrist; Putin and Ukraine; the drone revolution and Taiwan; the hope of Ossoff; and the World Cup.Browse the Dishcast archive for an episode you might enjoy. Coming up: Stephen Grosz on the struggles of love, David Thomson on cinema in American history and culture, John O'Sullivan on conservatism, Robby George on natural law, and Megan McArdle on pretty much anything. Please send any guest recs, dissents, and other comments to dish@andrewsullivan.com.

In this episode of Power Players, Senior Editor Leo Collins explores the narrow waterways that quietly underpin the global economy and the immense geopolitical influence they provide to any actor that controls them. From the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca to the Bab al-Mandeb and the Panama Canal, Leo examines how a handful of strategic corridors have shaped empires, fuelled economic growth and become critical pressure points in an increasingly contested world. The episode traces the history of these vital routes, the states and non-state actors that wield influence over them and the growing efforts by major powers to develop alternative trade corridors. It also explores the risks posed by conflict, climate change and infrastructure vulnerabilities, revealing how disruption in a few key locations can reverberate across global energy markets, exacerbating the risks facing supply chains and food security. As nations race to build new routes and reduce their dependence on maritime bottlenecks, this episode examines why the future of global power may belong not to those who control the chokepoints, but to those who can bypass them.   Join the Sibylline Media mailing list https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk.   Follow us on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn Sibylline | LinkedIn Follow us on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website www.sibylline.co.uk #Geopolitics #GlobalTrade #MaritimeSecurity #SupplyChains #PowerPlayers

A version of this essay has been published by Open Magazine at https://openthemagazine.com/world/india-will-collapse-without-digital-sovereignty-and-pax-indica-lessons-from-hormuzBy now it is clear that the Iran War (or West Asia War) has been a disaster to all concerned, including the principals as well as assorted passersby. The massive amounts spent by the US (at last count $25 billion) are at least articulated; the bill for the enormous infrastructural and human suffering inflicted on Gulf states, in the theater of war, must be greater, by definition.The collateral damages suffered by the rest of the world from the cessation of trade through the Straits of Hormuz will presumably run into the trillions of dollars. As one of the worst affected, India, which imports 90% of its hydrocarbons from the Gulf, not to mention other essential items such as urea (for fertilizer), sulfuric acid, helium, etc., is on track to take a massive hit. As an article in The Economic Times said, “India must brace for broad-based economic shock”.Indian exports of up to $50 billion are also affected, especially agricultural products including perishable foodstuffs, but also gems and jewellery, electronics, textiles and garments. Some of this can be diverted via Oman and the UAE's Fujairah port, but much of it passes through the Straits of Hormuz and is potentially blocked and/or stranded at sea.The Hormuz closure is a body blow to India's economy. What can and will India do about it? The Indian State has a habit of rising to the challenge only when there is a crisis, while vegetating otherwise. The 1991 economic crisis is a case in point; the sanctions following “The Buddha is smiling”, and the denial of cryogenic rocket engines and supercomputers are other examples where the nation rallied. So were covid vaccines. Necessity, they say, is the mother of invention.Turning a threat into an opportunityIf I were to be an optimist, I could say that the current crisis is actually an opportunity. In fact, a major opportunity. My reading of the Iran War is that it is President Trump's strategic tit-for-tat against China for denying him rare earths and cutting off soybean purchases. In return Trump decided to deny China access to oil by closing access to Venezuela and Iran. Whether this will work, or whether the G2 condominium (read ‘surrender') will prevail, is unclear.But that is, in a sense, background noise that needs to be managed. India needs to focus on its own issues, of which I see several as critical, and the solution in general is to become Atmanirbhar, self-reliant, and from that, to create an Anti-Fragile nation:* National security/defense* Food security* Energy security* Digital security/narrative control* Trade securityThe first three do not need an explanation: they are obvious. Internal and external security are pre-requisites for any successful society. If India's hard-won food security can be threatened by external threats, then there needs to be some deep introspection. Energy security means diversification, both of hydrocarbon sources, and of types of energy, including renewables, nuclear, biomass, coal-based, and so on.Malign narratives and digital sovereigntyNarrative control is something that the Indian State has failed at so far; it is laughably easy to create hate speech against Indians and India (as has been demonstrated freely by any number of players, starting from the MAGA crowd, to Audrey Truschke to a”Cockroach Janata Party” and some nitwit Norwegian journalist in just the last fortnight) and there are no consequences to the culprits. It's enough to make me pine for Lee Kuan Yew's aggressive legal battles against the media.It's one thing if it were only a problem with foreigners, but with the massive spread of social media, and in particular generativeAI, it is becoming a serious domestic issue. Since India is an avid consumer of social media, and because generativeAI is trained on things like Wikipedia, X, Whatsapp and Google content, biased and motivated material becomes ensconced as The Truth. I have written about narrative warfare and manufacturing consent.This used to be a one-way tsunami of (mis)-information by legacy media, but now there is also the opposite: the wholesale and free vacuuming-up of Indian data (whatever happened to “data is the new oil”?). The “Great Firewall of China” both kept out foreign BIg Tech applications and prevented their plundering Chinese data: is that the way to go?Manufactured narratives are intended for regime change: all the color revolutions today are hatched with massive bot-farms funded by some combination of Deep State, CCP, ISI, Qatar etc. (for example the alleged Gen-Z uprisings that rocked Nepal, drove Sheikh Hasina out of Bangladesh). Thus muzzling malign narratives, and ensuring data security, are imperative.Even Singapore is not immune: it had to block anti-India narratives that likely originated from Chinese sources.A particularly striking example of narrative warfare is the virtual hate speech inducted into Wikipedia by deeply prejudiced anonymous editors. Ashley Rindsberg, who exposed the mighty New York Times' biases in his book The Gray Lady Winked, provides many examples of this.Of note to Indians and Hindus is his recent substack titled “Wikipedia's India War” where he identifies just four editors as having created most of the content condemning the Hindu American Foundation (HAF) in ‘Wikivoice', i.e. the allegedly neutral perspective of Wikipedia. They are, on the contrary, shown to be highly one-sided.As Rindsberg mentions, Wikipedia being central to generativeAI, the damage is baked into the world-view of all AI applications. Truly Orwellian. Says Rindsberg: “four… anonymous accounts can have an enormous impact on what millions of people believe to be the truth.” “Over four years (2021-2025), editors systematically erased HAF's identity as an American civil rights group, transforming its Wikipedia page into a heavily curated dossier of accusations.”Trade, and how the Spice Route was far superior to the Silk RoadFinally, something that is becoming increasingly important: ensuring freedom of trade. This is more than just freedom of navigation, although I find it instructive that Emperor Rajendra Chola sent a huge fleet 1,001 years ago simply to open up the Straits of Malacca. India can make an active attempt to regain primacy in Indian Ocean trade, the whole Pax indica idea.Here is another example of the power of narrative: we have been led to believe that the Silk Road to China was some major highway of commerce between ancient Rome and ancient China, but it was a term coined only in 1877 by the German Ferdinand von Richthofen. There was no highway. A large caravan might take six months, and with 500 camels traversing treacherous deserts and braving bandits, it might carry a maximum of 100 tons. That is puny.In comparison, on the Spice Route, a single stitched ship from Muziris could carry 400 tons of ivory, pepper, silk, tigers and elephants; and the historian Strabo around 1 CE talks about fleets of 250 ships going from Alexandria to India on a six-week monsoon-powered journey. That is 100,000 tons of merchandise. No wonder Pliny the Elder complained that Rome's treasuries were being emptied of gold by India.Simple question: where are hoards of ancient Roman coins found in Asia? Answer: not along the Silk Road. The hoards are in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.Today, it is possible for India to aspire to port-led development of trade, especially with the major ports at Trivandrum (Vizhinjam), Maharashtra (Vadhavan), and Great Nicobar (Galathea Bay). The underlying ‘software' of India's millennia-old trade competency was a ‘multi-protocol switch' as I pointed out, and today's India Stack can replicate that. Then there is the need for a blue-water navy: muscle to provide security on the Hormuz to Malacca sea-lanes.So there is a vision. How can India get there? This is where policy matters, as I discussed with policy expert Anuj Gupta. Policy, especially industrial policy, has had a bad reputation in certain circles because it was deemed to violate the virginal purity of classical capitalism. However, in a recent U-turn, even the World Bank admitted that industrial policy may not be all that bad, after all: the success of Japan, the Asian Tigers, and China can't be ignored.That leads to the question of why policy in India has produced mediocre outcomes, what is different now, and where the best use of policy might be.Industrial Policy: What went wrong in the past?There are many problems here. To begin with, the Soviet model, which Nehruvians swore by, was, in hindsight, a dead end. Second, there is the problem of governance: post-Independence bureaucrats have awkwardly borne the legacy of imperial hauteur and the needs of a developing society. Third, until recently, the bare necessities (food, electricity, road access) were not available to many citizens, and GDP growth was not their priority.There is also the culture of jugaad: of clever ways in which you overcome constraints through frugal improvisation and seat-of-the-pants making-do. This is fine for one-off things (e.g. converting a tractor trailer into a makeshift transport vehicle because your truck broke down), but it does not make for efficient and replicable industrial products. As The Economic Times said recently, it is time to junk jugaad. Quality has to become ingrained in people's minds.The issue of governance is significant: the bureaucracy and the judiciary have both under-performed, politicians, as everywhere, have been venal. It is said that China's growth can be attributed to the fact that its babus are engineers, and therefore with engineering ruthlessness move in straight lines. The US' babus are lawyers, and India's are humanities graduates. Well, engineers are not very good at second-order effects (eg. China's lurch from one-child policy to demographic collapse), but a little bit of ruthlessness is probably good.What is going reasonably well?There are a few modest success stories: for example, in electronics manufacturing or assembly. The PLIs (and DLIs) have produced the desired effort, with clusters of excellence where global suppliers have also set up shop (as they did earlier for the automobile industry in, say, Sriperumpudur). The fact that a lot of iPhones in the US are now imported from India is laudable, even though it may be derided as “screwdriver jobs”. That's where one starts the move up the value chain.The current semiconductor policy is a big hope, especially after the landmark agreement by the Dutch firm ASML with Tata Electronics in Dholera, Gujarat. Given that ASML has a near-monopoly position in Deep Ultraviolet Lithography (DUV) this is a major boost to India's chip ambitions. My recent conversation with AMD CTO Suraj Rengarajan went into India's chances to realize its ambitions.A recent announcement from Trivandrum-based fabless startup NetraSemi (a recipient of DLI) of the commercial availability of its edge AI chips is a landmark.Next is the newly announced plan for energy security revolving around both coal gasification and intensive offshore exploration. These fall squarely into the Atmanirbhar category: India simply cannot afford to have its energy held hostage by distant nations. It also needs distinctly Indian innovation.The Samudra Manthan initiative is also showing some promise. At least one out of three deep-water wells in the Andaman Sea (SriVijaya Puram-3) are reported to be showing the availability of natural gas, although it will take 5-10 years for this to be commercially available.What should the future look like for India's Industrial Policies?This of course is the hard question. Here is my personal perspective, and I accept that reasonable people may disagree. I think three areas need to be focused on, and will pay large dividends.* Drones and swarming software* Social media and AI stack* Maritime Trade and Blue-Water NavyI admit that these are not the only worthwhile industrial policies. Another is for copper, which would reverse the catastrophic effects of the closure of the Sterlite plant in Thoothukkudi, as the metal is an increasingly important component in electronics, data centers, etc., and far from being self-sufficient earlier, India now imports 50% of its needs. Another area of interest in quantum computing.There are also failures from which the right lessons need to be learned. The policy for EV batteries has apparently failed: according to Swarajya magazine, India has not been able to escape from near-total dependence on imported Chinese batteries.Drone swarmsI wrote recently that drones may well herald a step-change in warfare. For the moment, though, they are searching for their niche in offensive/defensive warfare. Drone hardware is already a well-trodden path with Chinese and other nations dominating it, although with IdeaForge, Paras, Garuda, IoTechworld Avigation etc., India is also making progress there. And India is indeed buying the hardware, $2 billion-worth, according to the Economic Times.But I believe the real game is in drone swarms. AI-based control software (similar to HiveMind) that would allow an entire swarm to act autonomously, just like a murmuration of starlings, would be the gold standard to aim for. Such a self-managing swarm would be virtually impossible to defend against, and I think India should put in place a PLI to support it, leveraging software capability in the country.Of course, drones are not just for military purposes, but also for commercial uses including things like logistics and agricultural use, such as precision delivery of fertilizer and pesticide to crops (as Garuda demonstrates). An Indian initiative that supports both drone hardware, and especially drone software, would be a potential winner.Digital Sovereignty: Social media and AI stackThere is a raging battle over which part of the AI stack India needs to invest in. As an old Unix hand, I believe the foundational model is not where the differentiation is. In analogy with Linux (the open-source Unix variant that was popularized by Linus Torvalds and an army of volunteers), there is little value in re-writing the operating system, but one can differentiate by building on top of it, or by judiciously choosing certain modules of it.Besides, the cost of building an entirely new foundational model would be astronomical and would consume the entire budget of IndiaAI Mission.Thus, my personal opinion is that the foundational model (especially when, it is believed, there are more or less open-source models available for free, e.g. Llama, DeepSeek) is not where India should expend its precious R&D resources, but on the layers of the stack above it. It is the data that matters, as Larry Ellison apparently suggests too.But there is the interesting counter-example of Sarvam AI which is producing its own sovereign model: multi-lingual and presumably otherwise tuned to Indian needs. The question is whether this can survive when hundreds of billions worth of capital investment are going to the US Big Tech companies and their Chinese rivals. The sad history of Koo, a Twitter rival, comes to mind. So does Arattai, a Whatsapp rival, whose popularity has waned. .A well-thought-through industrial policy on generativeAI is therefore essential. The status quo ante is unsustainable; given the fact that Sarvam has also found it difficult to raise funds in the US, it is worth pondering whether a China-style massive subsidy is the answer. And where should it go, into foundational models or into the layers of the stack above it? The answer is “both”, but with priority to the latter.Here is where I would prioritize investments, in order:* Vertical applications in specific domains: e.g. defense, healthcare, agriculture, governance (particularly in the judiciary and in ease of doing business in the bureaucracy)* Fine-tuning and customization: for the needs of the Indian context, e.g. multi-linguality under Bhashini* Compute infrastructure: GPUs, sovereign and protected indian datasets* Sovereign Small-Language Models such as Sarvam AIAs mentioned above, at the moment India's data is being sucked up for free by US Big Tech. In addition, there is the real danger that Indic Knowledge Systems will be mined and digested, as has happened to yoga, pranayama, etc., which have been given Western analogs and nomenclature, as in Pilates, ‘coherent breathing' etc.These two problems are connected, and both need to be tackled in parallel. Social media is being weaponized against India, and this is magnified by the legacy media in a positive feedback loop. Three examples: one was the rage against Adani based on the dubious research of Hindenburg, which then went under; the second is Bloomberg's reckless accusation about gold reserves being sold by the RBI, which they were forced to retract, but social media and Wikipedia will remember it; the third is the meteoric (media) rise of the Cockroach Janata Party.Trade using major ports, Digital Public Infrastructure and a blue water navyUsing trade for competitive advantage is an age-old tactic. The trade tiffs between the US and China are examples of this: we are witnessing war by other means. Many nations are getting into this act, and India does have some advantages, partly based on geography. Maritime trade is likely to continue to be the key, which makes naval chokepoints the big story, but not the only story to watch out for.The major aspects of maritime trade include infrastructure, the digital “multi-protocol switch”, and security. On the one hand, India is developing not only major container ports, and the road/rail links to get to them, and the industrial goods to ship out through them, but also a serious shipbuilding industry, which was one of India's historical strengths. Then it used to be stitched wooden ships (teak beams lashed together with coconut rope). Now it's modern steel ships.There are the big, efficient new ports, which can now turn ships around with Singapore-like efficiency; the proposed third aircraft carrier group which will make it possible to patrol the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal at the time; the Air-Independent Propulsion diesel submarines and nuclear submarines that can monitor (and if necessary, deny) narrow straits; the sale of supersonic Brahmos cruise missiles to the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia (and Cyprus) that create ship-denial zones: all this is muscle.And the final piece, the ‘software' for trade, the “multi-protocol switch”. This last is complicated. Its value is underestimated by many. But this is what enables friction-less transactions between various unrelated parties. The India Stack and the Digital Public Infrastructure can be utilized to provide such a facility. But it is complex enough to need significant study as to what is possible, and how to roll it out.Second-order effectsIn closing, it is worth considering some of what the (unintended) consequences of these proposals may be. Let us note that the G2 has no interest in allowing India to grow and make it a G3. They will do everything in their power to kneecap India, by all means possible.There is also a certain derision for India in some circles. Here is a generic western opinion on why China got rich, and India didn't. Well, the author doesn't consider the second-order effects of the wholesale destruction of Chinese civilization: that is a tradeoff Indians may not prefer for themselves. We all know how China's well-intentioned One Child Policy turned into demographic collapse within a few years. Besides, as The Economist asks, “China is innovative. Its economy is a mess. Which will win out?”This is why I think planning for these second-order effects is important. We tend to ignore them because they seem counterintuitive or unlikely, but Nassim Taleb has sensitized us to how low-probability Black Swan events can have grave consequences.As an example, attempting digital sovereignty may have unwelcome side-effects: Big Tech have the first-mover advantage and network effects and there are increasing returns to scale. They will surely make it hard for a new player to break in. Besides, the large investments in data centers and GCCs that they are making in India would make it very difficult for them to be ejected with a “Great Indian Firewall”.Even taxing their capture of Indian data will be complicated; not to mention that they have demonstrated that they can happily violate copyright laws with no consequence; therefore they will find ways to chew up and spit out Indian Knowledge Systems, and essentially re-colonize India. Digital colonialism is not a threat, it is a reality today, and it is a consequence of the relatively open Indian system.In addition, there is a malign group, the “barbarians within” as Arnold Toynbee once put it, who are ready to sacrifice Indian sovereignty for a pittance.Given all this, it will be very difficult to put in place serious measures to gain digital independence; and the narrative-peddling is likely to gain further momentum: just consider the caste allegations that have haunted BAPS in the US (despite the cases being dismissed by the US DoJ), the Cisco Systems case where, again, the case was dismissed, but the narrative continues, and the persistent efforts in various US states to turn caste into a weapon to bludgeon Indians.Another sensitive issue is that of the multi-protocol switch for trade. While from an Indian point of view, it eases trade and harks back to a Golden Age of Indic maritime commerce, but that will be viewed elsewhere very differently, for instance by the US as an attempt to de-dollarize. The US has jealousy guarded – with very good reasons that we will not go into here – the dollar's reserve currency status.We have also seen what happened to those who attempt to hurt the dollar's primacy: in 1985, the Plaza Accord devalued the dollar, and that was a body blow to Japan's economy, which has not recovered its mojo to this day. Later, Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Libya's Muammar Gaddafi both had ideas about replacing the petro-dollar with, respectively, the Euro and a new pan-African gold-backed currency. We know what happened to them.If the India Stack multi-protocol switch is perceived as an alternative to the US dollar, there may be grave consequences. Therefore, it should be conceived and deployed only as an adjunct to it and to the almighty SWIFT settlement system.ConclusionIndia is at a crossroads now. Even though the Hormuz closure is a serious problem, if it plays its cards right, adversity can be turned into opportunity across a variety of perspectives. The key is Atmanirbhar, self-reliance. If India can now implement a crash program of industrial policy, and at the same time overcome an ingrained Third-World tendency to cut corners, it can finally break free of the years of underperformance, what I called the Nehruvian Penalty in 2004.It is possible, but there are caveats: unforeseen consequences. Hic sunt dracones. Here be dragons. Be afraid. Be very afraid.3700 words, 7 June 2026This is episode 192 of the Shadow Warrior podcast. Here is a companion AI-generated slideshow. (Note that the borders of India are not necessarily depicted correctly here, because it is generated by an AI, notebookLM.google.com) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe

Dr. Beatriz Canamary stopped by the Energy News Beat podcast, and we had a great discussion about energy, exports, and our maritime industry, including shipbuilding and the Jones Act. I am going to just be brutally honest for a moment, and say that I have been for totally repealing the Jones Act for years. After my discussion with Dr. Canamery, my opinion has shifted toward more of a "let's get the problem solved and leave the Jones Act in place long-term" stance. But we need a plan to get to a balance. Dr. Canamary has a new book coming out, and we will be getting an interview lined up. Connect with Beatriz on her LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/beatrizcanamary/1. U.S. Maritime Industry RevitalizationThe core focus is rebuilding America's shipbuilding capacity. The U.S. currently represents only 0.4% of global ship production (down from over 50% post-WWII), while China dominates with 60% and South Korea adds another 20%. The discussion emphasizes the need for strategic investment in shipyards, workforce development, and creating predictable cargo demand to justify shipbuilding expansion.2. Energy Security & Dominance Through MaritimeEnergy exports (oil and LNG) are central to U.S. dominance, but they're currently transported on international vessels rather than U.S.-flagged ships. The podcast explores how securing cargo on American vessels strengthens both energy security and the maritime industry. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is cited as a wake-up call about supply chain vulnerabilities.3. Global Choke Points & Geopolitical RisksEight major maritime choke points (Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea/Houthis, Strait of Malacca, etc.) are contested and sometimes weaponized. Insurance companies can effectively shut down shipping by canceling coverage, as Lloyd's of London did during the Iran strike. The discussion highlights the need for U.S. insurance alternatives and control over critical passages.4. Nuclear Technology in MaritimeNuclear propulsion for ships and floating nuclear power plants are presented as innovation differentiators for the U.S. The ABS (American Bureau of Shipping) has frameworks for approving nuclear projects, and companies like Nano Nuclear are developing micro-reactors designed for maritime use. Nuclear is positioned as cleaner than traditional fuel oil and a competitive advantage.5. Autonomous & Advanced Maritime TechnologyA new IMO (International Maritime Organization) framework for autonomous commercial ships was recently approved, with a mandatory code coming in 2032. The U.S. is positioned to compete through innovation in automation, AI, and autonomous vessels rather than on cost—since labor-intensive competition with China/Korea is unwinnable.6. Maritime Prosperity ZonesThe U.S. should develop regional maritime clusters (similar to Europe's model) with specialized capabilities—some regions for tankers, others for icebreakers, etc. The American Maritime Industrial Coalition is mapping supply chains and regional expertise to accelerate production.7. Trade Agreements & Bilateral PartnershipsStrategic trade agreements with U.S. allies can secure cargo flows through American ports on U.S.-flagged vessels, creating demand signals for shipbuilding without direct government subsidies. This creates a win-win for allies seeking energy independence.8. The Ships for America ActA bipartisan bill with 126+ seats of support, expected to pass by year-end. It includes tax incentives and supports the broader maritime revitalization strategy outlined in the National Security Strategy and Maritime Action Plan.9. Geopolitical Shifts & New Trading BlocsThe podcast discusses emerging energy-based trading blocs, China's port dominance (129 ports globally), and concerns about China's influence in South America (Peru, Brazil). It also touches on the Monroe Doctrine and regional security in the Western Hemisphere.10. Ports as Strategic InfrastructureDr. Canamari's forthcoming book explores ports as intelligence hubs, infrastructure assets, and strategic military/trade assets. The discussion covers climate resilience, digital twins, automation, and how ports are increasingly weaponized in global trade wars.This is a comprehensive discussion of how maritime infrastructure, energy, innovation, and geopolitics intersect to shape U.S. competitiveness and national security.Check out the Energy News Beat SubStack https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energyAnd we have WellDatabase rolling in as a new sponsor. https://welldatabase.com/

Brad Thor has sold over 25 million thriller books. Tim Shipman welcomes Brad Thor on Spybrary to discuss Choke Point, the 25th Scot Harvath thriller, and the evolution of Scott Harvath from post-9/11 counterterrorism operator. Thor explains how the new novel uses Thailand, China's ambitions, the Strait of Malacca, sabotage, bomb-making, and geopolitical manipulation as the backdrop for a fast-moving thriller. The conversation also digs into Thor's writing process, his research network of intelligence, military, law enforcement, and diplomatic sources, and how he builds authentic detail even when he has not personally visited a location. Thor reflects on his early career as a travel show host, the honeymoon conversation that pushed him to write his first novel, his friendship with Vince Flynn, the collaborative thriller Cold Zero with Ward Larsen, and the Netflix film adaptation currently in development. Key Topics and Themes Brad Thor's 25th Scot Harvath thriller, Choke Point China's Belt and Road Initiative and global infrastructure influence Thailand, the Strait of Malacca, and the strategic value of a Thai canal The evolution of Scot Harvath Post-9/11 thriller fiction and the rise of the American action-spy hero Real-world tradecraft, bomb-making research, and responsible thriller detail Writing geopolitical thrillers that teach readers something without slowing the pace Bangkok as an underused spy-fiction setting Collaboration with Ward Larsen on Cold Zero The Netflix adaptation of Cold Zero British spy-fiction influences: Fleming, le Carré, Forsyth, MacLean, Deighton Brad Thor Official Website Follow Tim Shipman Buy Choke Point The Top 125 Spy Authors Ranked and Rated by Tim Shipman Join the Spybrary Community

Tutti conosciamo lo Stretto di Hormuz. Ma di stretti come Hormuz, nel mondo, ce ne sono altri sette. E oggi, per la prima volta nella storia recente, quattro degli otto principali choke points del pianeta sono simultaneamente sotto pressione. In questo video spieghiamo cosa sono i punti di soffocamento degli oceani, chi li controlla e cosa succede quando si chiudono. Analizziamo le rotte alternative reali: da Suez (oltre 6.000 km in più via Capo di Buona Speranza), a Panama (distanza che raddoppia o triplica), fino a Hormuz, dove una vera alternativa marittima non esiste e le pipeline di bypass possono dirottare al massimo circa 2,6 milioni di barili al giorno contro i 20 che passano via mare. Aggiornamento al 4 maggio 2026: il blocco navale USA sui porti iraniani è in vigore dal 13 aprile, la tregua tra Washington e Teheran è fragile, e dopo la conferenza di Parigi del 17 aprile (Macron, Starmer, Meloni, Merz) Europa e alleati continuano a pianificare una missione multinazionale di sminamento. Ecco tutto quello che c'è da sapere. Prendi parte alla nostra Membership per supportare il nostro progetto Missione Cultura e diventare mecenate di Geopop: https://geopop.it/ngCbN 00:00 Crisi di Hormuz: perché preoccupa il mondo 02:20 Cosa sono i choke points e perché sono strategici 04:12 Gli 8 choke points più importanti del mondo 06:41 Canale di Panama: il collegamento tra Atlantico e Pacifico 08:22 Stretto di Malacca: il passaggio marittimo più trafficato 09:21 Stretto di Gibilterra: la porta del Mediterraneo 09:53 Bosforo e Dardanelli: il collegamento con il Mar Nero 10:28 Stretto di Hormuz: passa il 20% del petrolio mondiale 12:09 Magellano e Capo di Buona Speranza: le rotte alternative 15:12 Chi controlla davvero i choke points 16:44 I choke points erano già in crisi prima di Hormuz 18:18 La rotta del futuro: l'Artico Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The National Security Hour with Brandon Weichert – Yon emphasized the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints such as the Danish Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Malacca. These locations are not obscure geographic trivia; they are the pressure valves of the international system. If even one is blocked or militarized, the economic...

The National Security Hour with Brandon Weichert – Yon emphasized the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints such as the Danish Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Malacca. These locations are not obscure geographic trivia; they are the pressure valves of the international system. If even one is blocked or militarized, the economic...

Ormuz, Malacca, Taïwan, Gibraltar, pas de Calais… des détroits cruciaux pour le trafic maritime mais qui sont aussi vulnérables. Un grain de sable dans le système et les répercussions peuvent être redoutables, alors que 90% des échanges mondiaux se font par voie maritime.

Khoảng 88% tổng lượng dầu thô nhập khẩu của Việt Nam được nhập từ vùng Vịnh Ba Tư, chỉ đứng sau Philippines (95%) và đứng trước các nước Malaysia (69%), Thái Lan (59%) và Singapore (52%), theo Ngân hàng Đầu tư Maybank (1). Kuwait là nhà cung cấp dầu thô lớn nhất cho Việt Nam, chiếm 80% tổng lượng nhập khẩu. Khoảng 49% khối lượng khí hóa lỏng LNG nhập khẩu của Việt Nam cũng có xuất xứ từ Vùng Vịnh (2). Sự phụ thuộc nghiêm trọng vào gần như một nước, một khu vực vẫn được coi là “chảo lửa” Trung Đông, được phản ánh rõ trong cuộc khủng hoảng eo biển Hormuz.  Ngoài ra, Việt Nam có kho dự trữ dầu chiến lược nhỏ nhất Đông Nam Á, trong khi việc đa dạng hóa các nguồn năng lượng chưa hoàn toàn mang lại hiệu quả. Đọc thêmViệt Nam đối mặt với tình trạng thiếu xăng dầu vì nguồn cung ứng bị gián đoạn Theo một tài liệu của bộ Công Thương, được Reuters trích dẫn ngày 18/03/2026, Việt Nam cũng phải đối mặt với việc các mỏ dầu ngoài khơi đang dần cạn kiệt, khiến sản lượng dầu thô nội địa dự kiến ​​sẽ bị giảm trong thập niên này, chỉ còn khoảng 5,8 đến 8 triệu tấn/năm, thấp hơn mức bình quân 8,6 triệu tấn của 5 năm gần nhất. Do đó, Việt Nam có nguy cơ phụ thuộc nhiều hơn vào nguồn nhập khẩu dầu lửa do hệ thống lọc dầu cần lượng nguyên liệu lớn hơn rất nhiều để đáp ứng nhu cầu ngày càng lớn ở trong nước. UNCLOS nói gì về khai thác dầu khí trong vùng tranh chấp chủ quyền ? Về lâu dài, Việt Nam dự trù tăng cường hoạt động thăm dò, trong đó có việc đưa ra các ưu đãi cho các công ty dầu khí quốc tế đầu tư vào các mỏ ngoài khơi. Mục tiêu là nâng cao trữ lượng có thể khai thác thêm 13 triệu đến 17 triệu tấn dầu thô mỗi năm trong giai đoạn 2026-2030. Khủng hoảng năng lượng ở Trung Đông đã thúc đẩy Philippines nêu khả năng thăm dò dầu khí với Trung Quốc ở Biển Đông, nơi đang có tranh chấp chủ quyền. Liệu Việt Nam có làm như vậy với Trung Quốc ? Thực ra, ngay năm 2005, Trung Quốc, Việt Nam và Philippines đã có thỏa thuận ba bên về “Khảo sát Địa chấn biển chung” (Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking, JSMU) tại khu vực “theo thỏa thuận” rộng 142.886 km² ở Biển Đông, bao gồm một phần quần đảo Trường Sa. Thỏa thuận này kéo dài ba năm và hết hạn vào năm 2008. Trả lời phỏng vấn RFI Tiếng Việt, giảng viên-nhà nghiên cứu Laurent Gédéon, Đại học Công giáo Lyon và Trường Sư phạm Lyon, nhận định : “Cả Philippines và Việt Nam đều coi đó là cơ hội để cải thiện quan hệ chính trị, kinh tế và quân sự với Trung Quốc, đồng thời thúc đẩy phát triển chung các nguồn tài nguyên có thể sẽ rất khó khai thác vì những căng thẳng”. Đọc thêmViệt Nam có bị ảnh hưởng từ hợp tác dầu khí Trung Quốc - Philippines ở Biển Đông? Ý định này vẫn chỉ nằm trên giấy tờ vì những đòi hỏi chủ quyền của Trung Quốc đối với hầu hết Biển Đông, cho dù bị vô hiệu hóa trong phán quyết năm 2016 của Tòa Trọng Tài Thường Trực (PCA) La Haye. Tuy nhiên, các bên vẫn không từ bỏ nỗ lực tìm kiếm một thỏa hiệp, dù chỉ là tạm thời, theo giải thích của nhà nghiên cứu Laurent Gédéon : “Theo luật quốc tế, khi nhiều quốc gia cùng tuyên bố chủ quyền đối với một vùng biển (vùng đặc quyền kinh tế hoặc thềm lục địa chồng lấn), Công ước Liên Hiệp Quốc về Luật Biển (UNCLOS) 1982 quy định nghĩa vụ hợp tác. Thông qua Điều 74 và 83, Công ước quy định các quốc gia phải đàm phán thiện chí để đạt được sự phân định công bằng và không được làm tổn hại hoặc cản trở một thỏa thuận trong tương lai. Cụ thể, điều này có nghĩa là việc khai thác dầu khí đơn phương tiềm ẩn rủi ro pháp lý tại khu vực tranh chấp giữa nhiều quốc gia theo luật quốc tế. Công ước cũng khuyến khích các giải pháp tạm thời. Công ước quy định các quốc gia có thể ký kết các thỏa thuận tạm thời mang tính thực tiễn trong khi chờ phân định cuối cùng. Chính trong khuôn khổ pháp lý này mà các khu vực phát triển chung về dầu khí đang được phát triển. Tuy nhiên, cần nhấn mạnh rằng Công ước không đề cập đến phương pháp cần tuân theo. Do đó, Công ước không định nghĩa một cơ chế tiêu chuẩn cho việc quản lý chung dầu khí, cũng không thiết lập các quy tắc chia sẻ doanh thu hoặc quản trị, cũng không tạo ra một thể chế cụ thể cho các khu vực tranh chấp này. Do đó, các phương thức cụ thể (chia sẻ, thuế, nhà điều hành…) hoàn toàn được đàm phán song phương hoặc trong khu vực giữa các quốc gia”. Đọc thêmViệt Nam bảo vệ chủ quyền ở Biển Đông như nào ? Tiền lệ về gác tranh chấp chủ quyền để cùng thăm dò khai thác Trường hợp tranh chấp chủ quyền trên biển nhưng vẫn hợp tác khai thác dầu khí không phải là hiếm trên thế giới, theo nhà nghiên cứu Laurent Gédéon : “Hai mô hình khu vực phát triển chung có thể được nêu ra làm ví dụ để các bên ở Biển Đông, đặc biệt là Việt Nam, có thể tham khảo. Thứ nhất là Khu vực Phát triển Chung Nigeria-São Tomé và Príncipe (Nigeria-São Tomé and Príncipe Joint Development Zone), liên quan đến hoạt động khai thác dầu khí trong vùng biển mà cả hai quốc gia đều tuyên bố chủ quyền ở Vịnh Guinea. Thứ hai là Khu vực Phát triển Chung Malaysia-Thái Lan (Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area, MTJDA), liên quan đến việc khai thác khí đốt tự nhiên trong khu vực tranh chấp giữa Malaysia và Thái Lan, nằm ở Vịnh Thái Lan. Có thể thấy rõ rằng bất chấp những khó khăn, sự hợp tác giữa các bên tuyên bố có quyền về dầu khí ở Biển Đông là khả thi và có thể được thực hiện phù hợp với cả luật pháp quốc tế và luật pháp quốc gia”. Bãi Tư Chính : Việt Nam khẳng định chủ quyền nhưng không khai thác được Tài nguyên dầu khí của Việt Nam tập trung quanh bãi Tư Chính (Vanguard Bank), chiếm khoảng 10% nhu cầu năng lượng của đất nước. Hà Nội khẳng định khu vực nhà giàn DK1, trong đó có bãi Tư Chính, nằm trong vùng đặc quyền kinh tế 200 hải lý tính từ đường cơ sở của Việt Nam và là thềm lục địa phía nam Việt Nam, hoàn toàn phù hợp với UNCLOS 1982. Vùng biển này không tranh chấp với nước nào, và lại càng không tranh chấp với Trung Quốc. Ngược lại, Bắc Kinh và Đài Bắc cho rằng bãi Tư Chính thuộc quần đảo Trường Sa, đang có tranh chấp chủ quyền. Trung Quốc thường xuyên tuần tra tại đây nhằm đe dọa Việt Nam và làm gián đoạn hoạt động của các công ty dầu khí khai thác trong khu vực. Tháng 07/2017, tập đoàn Repsol của Tây Ban Nha phải ngừng hoạt động thăm dò khí đốt tại mỏ Cá Rồng Đỏ ở khu vực bãi Tư Chính. Trong suốt ba tuần tháng 07/2019, Trung Quốc đưa tàu thăm dò Hải Dương 8 (Haiyang Dizhi 8), được nhiều tàu hải cảnh và dân quân biển hộ tống, xâm nhập vùng đặc quyền kinh tế và thềm lục địa Việt Nam tại khu vực bãi Tư Chính. Hoạt động gây rối này tái diễn trong những năm 2023, 2024. Đọc thêmBãi Tư Chính : Việt Nam nên để ngỏ khả năng kiện Trung Quốc Song song với việc “quấy rối” hoạt động thăm dò dầu khí của Việt Nam và tiếp tục đòi chủ quyền đối với hầu hết Biển Đông, từ năm 2017, Trung Quốc cũng “tích cực” đề xuất một số dự án phát triển chung ở Biển Đông với Việt Nam và Philippines. Động cơ đằng sau đề xuất này là gì ? Nhà nghiên cứu Laurent Gédéon giải thích : “Động cơ của Bắc Kinh có thể được xem xét cả về kinh tế và địa chiến lược. Về kinh tế, việc khai thác tài nguyên năng lượng ở Biển Đông cho phép Trung Quốc đáp ứng nhu cầu năng lượng trong nước ngày càng tăng. Hơn nữa, bất kỳ động thái hội nhập khu vực nào cũng nằm trong khuôn khổ rộng lớn hơn của Hiệp định Đối tác Kinh tế Toàn diện Khu vực (RCEP), do Bắc Kinh khởi xướng và có hiệu lực từ tháng 01/2022. Về mặt địa-chiến lược, các sáng kiến ​​chung với các quốc gia giáp Biển Đông cho phép Trung Quốc tăng cường quan hệ hợp tác với những nước này. Về lâu dài, sự gần gũi đó có thể góp phần làm suy yếu mối quan hệ giữa các quốc gia này với Hoa Kỳ và từ đó củng cố vị thế của Bắc Kinh trong bối cảnh cạnh tranh Trung-Mỹ”. Những bị động do phụ thuộc quá lớn vào nguồn cung năng lượng Trung Đông có khiến Hà Nội thay đổi quan điểm về thỏa thuận khai thác chung và chia sẻ công bằng nguồn năng lượng ở Biển Đông không ? Liệu có khả năng Việt Nam và Trung Quốc hợp tác trong tương lai gần hay không ? Nhà nghiên cứu Laurent Gédéon nhận định : “Có khả năng hợp tác cho dù hai nước, Trung Quốc và Việt Nam, không từ bỏ các tuyên bố chủ quyền của họ bởi vì Việt Nam có những lập luận bảo vệ chủ quyền ở Biển Đông, nhưng họ có thể gác lại khía cạnh chủ quyền này hoặc đồng ý gác lại để tập trung vào các cơ chế thực tế để quản lý tài nguyên mà trong trường hợp này, là quản lý tài nguyên dầu mỏ. Đúng là nhiều nguồn tài nguyên đang được khai thác, và một số đang gần cạn kiệt. Nhưng không phải tất cả các nguồn tài nguyên ở Biển Đông đều đã được xác định. Trong khuôn khổ quản lý thực tiễn chung các nguồn tài nguyên dầu khí ở Biển Đông giữa Trung Quốc và Việt Nam, có thể sẽ có các đợt thăm dò chung nhằm xác định các mỏ dầu khí hoặc khí đốt tự nhiên mới, sau đó sẽ được khai thác và chia sẻ chung. Đọc thêmViệt Nam, Malaysia, Philippines: Gác tranh chấp, chống Trung Quốc ở Biển Đông? Thực tế cho thấy Việt Nam phụ thuộc vào nguồn cung dầu mỏ Trung Đông. Nhìn vào tình hình bất ổn hiện nay ở Trung Đông, đặc biệt là những khó khăn do các “điểm kiểm soát” - tức là các eo biển chiến lược - gây ra thì hiện giờ đang có rất nhiều tranh luận liên quan đến eo biển Hormuz, đang bị cả Iran và Mỹ phong tỏa. Ngoài ra còn phải nhắc đến eo biển Malacca, một eo biển nhạy cảm, nơi trung chuyển một phần rất lớn dầu mỏ dành cho các nước ở Đông Nam Á và và Đông Bắc Á. Vì vậy, sự phụ thuộc vào các đặc điểm địa lý có thể trở nên rất nhạy cảm từ góc độ địa-chính trị, đang thúc đẩy Việt Nam tìm cách xác định các nguồn tài nguyên dầu mỏ có thể khai thác được mà không cần đi qua những nơi tiềm ẩn nhiều vấn đề từ góc độ địa-chính trị như vậy”. Để có thể đi đến một quyết định, chắc chắn sẽ gây tranh cãi, nhưng mang tính thiết yếu cho nguồn cung năng lượng Việt Nam Nam, nhà nghiên cứu Laurent Gédéon cho răng, “các liên doanh được thành lập trong khuôn khổ quản lý chung không nên bị coi là một bước thụt lùi hoặc là một thất bại, mà là một cơ chế thực dụng được thiết lập trong khi chờ đợi một giải pháp dứt khoát, mà không phán xét về việc phân định ranh giới sau này các vùng biển liên quan và không đặt ra nghi vấn về các tuyên bố chủ quyền lãnh thổ của mỗi bên”. (1) ASEAN countries exposed by Middle East oil dependence (2) The Middle East Crisis and Southeast Asia's Energy Vulnerability

C dans l'air du 14 mai 2026 - Quand Xi Jinping menace Trump...Présentation: Lorrain SénéchalAccueilli en grande pompe ce jeudi à Pékin, le président des États-Unis a rencontré son homologue chinois, au premier jour d'une visite officielle aux lourds enjeux. Échanges d'amabilités et longue poignée de main. Xi Jinping a salué « une visite historique », prônant la stabilité des relations sino-américaines, et Donald Trump a promis un « avenir fabuleux » entre les deux puissances rivales. Mais derrière les sourires, les sujets de tension sont nombreux entre les deux superpuissances : la guerre au Moyen-Orient, les enjeux technologiques, la guerre commerciale, sans oublier Taïwan. Et loin des caméras, les propos sont plus offensifs.Ainsi, Xi Jinping a prévenu Donald Trump que la Chine et les États-Unis pourraient entrer en « conflit » si Washington gérait mal la question de Taïwan, a rapporté la télévision d'État CCTV. Avant de monter dans l'avion pour se rendre à Pékin, le président des États-Unis avait déclaré qu'il parlerait avec le numéro un chinois Xi Jinping de la question des ventes d'armes américaines à Taïwan. Mais pourquoi accepterait-il d'en discuter avec la Chine ?L'Empire du Milieu considère Taïwan comme l'une de ses provinces, qu'elle n'a pas encore réussi à « unifier » avec le reste de son territoire depuis la fin de la guerre civile chinoise en 1949. Elle demande régulièrement aux États-Unis de ne pas soutenir militairement et diplomatiquement les autorités taïwanaises actuelles, et a intensifié ses manœuvres militaires autour de Taïwan depuis 2016. De leur côté, depuis l'adoption par le Congrès en 1979 du Taiwan Relations Act, les États-Unis sont tenus de donner à Taïwan les moyens d'assurer sa défense. Cela pourrait-il changer ? Les États-Unis pourraient-ils lâcher Taïwan et le détroit de Formose en échange du détroit d'Ormuz ? Quels sont les enjeux de la visite de Donald Trump en Chine ? Et que se passe-t-il en mer de Chine méridionale ?Alors que le monde a les yeux rivés vers le Moyen-Orient et le détroit d'Ormuz, l'Empire du Milieu accélère discrètement dans d'autres domaines. En mer de Chine méridionale, Pékin construit activement une île artificielle sur le récif Antelope, situé à quelques centaines de kilomètres des côtes vietnamiennes. Parallèlement, l'Asie s'agite autour d'un autre étroit couloir de navigation : le détroit de Malacca, voie navigable la plus fréquentée au monde. L'Indonésie a fait part de sa volonté d'y imposer des péages avant de faire machine arrière. En Europe, au premier trimestre 2026, jamais la Chine n'avait enregistré un excédent commercial aussi élevé vis-à-vis de l'UE. Les exportations chinoises vers l'Europe atteignent des niveaux record.Nos experts :- Philippe GELIE - Directeur adjoint de la rédaction – Le Figaro- Général Patrick DUTARTRE - Général de l'armée de l'Air et de l'Espace, ancien pilote de chasse- Nicole BACHARAN - Historienne et politologue, spécialiste des États-Unis, auteure de « Requiem pour le monde libre »- Mary-Françoise RENARD - Professeure d'économie - Université Clermont-Auvergne, auteure de la Chine dans l'économie mondiale

SCHEDULE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 5-12-26.January 1931.Inflation reached 3.8% in April due to gas prices. Elizabeth Peek notes that real hourly wages fell while global eyes turn toward the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's consequential summit in China. (1/16)Elizabeth Peek critiques redistricting as an unattractive game that voters generally dislike. She emphasizes that population growth in Texas and Florida provides more long-term political power than manipulating district lines in blue states. (2/16)Iran is losing $400 million daily due to U.S. sanctions and blockades. Jonathan Schanzer discusses the leadership vacuum in Tehran, noting that decisions are currently made by a chaotic committee of revolutionary figures. (3/16)Israel engages in "constant gardening" to clear Hezbollah threats south of the Litani River. Jonathan Schanzer labels Hamas a spent force, having lost over half its territory and significant rocket-firing capabilities since the conflict began. (4/16)Indonesia is taking "baby steps" toward U.S. cooperation to counter China's unlawful maritime claims. James Holmeshighlights the importance of professional military education and potential overflight agreements to secure the Strait of Malacca. (5/16)Peter Huessy warns of China's lack of transparency regarding its massive nuclear expansion and dual-use systems. The CCP's push to dominate offensive artificial intelligence poses a significant threat to global security and stability. (6/16)Steve Yates reveals there is no such thing as a private meeting with the CCP, as every word is recorded and broadcast to thousands. Trump's top-down personal diplomacy lacks the usual preparatory paperwork. (7/16)The U.S. holds increased leverage over global choke points while China faces a demographic crisis. Steve Yatesdiscusses manufacturing shifts to India, suggesting that China's export-dependent model remains a "shaky house of cards." (8/16)Gregory Copley describes the Beijing summit as a theatrical performance while the Chinese economy and political structure collapse. China has lost global trust, particularly regarding the safety and quality of its electric vehicles. (9/16)The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is fluid as Iran attempts to wait out the U.S. Gregory Copley argues the U.S. requires regime change to stop trans-Eurasian monopolies and restore regional stability. (10/16)Turkey is now considered nuclear ready after displaying an ICBM with a 6,000 km range. Gregory Copley notes this shift toward a "gunpowder state" reflects neo-Ottoman ambitions to balance power against Israel, Russia, and China. (11/16)Gregory Copley discusses Prime Minister Starmer's struggle to maintain party trust following poor election results. He highlights King Charles's role in repairing the U.S.-UK special relationship despite Starmer's apparent indifference toward the monarchy. (12/16)Gordon Chang details China's historical failure to meet trade commitments and its ongoing support for the Iranian regime. He also notes reports of blatant Chinese bribery and intervention within the U.S. government. (13/16)Bob Zimmerman dismisses the government moon race as a political fraud, while noting China's rational, incremental progress. He identifies SpaceX as the true leader, likely reaching the moon with far superior, sustainable technology. (14/16)Syria neutralized a Hezbollah plot to assassinate senior officials to restore a logistical weapons corridor. AHmad Shariwah explains that both Hezbollah and Iran gain from inciting chaos and instability within the Syrian regime. (15/16)John Hardie analyzes the unusual appointment of an army general to lead Russia's Aerospace Forces. Despite high losses, Russia's battlefield gains remain slow, while Ukraine continues to have success with long-range strikes and drones. (16/16)

MAKING OF THE JBS, FEATURING GORDON CHANG, JIM HOLMES, PETER HUESSY, STEVE YATES, 5-12-26SEPTEMBER 1932.This collection of transcripts examines the shifting geopolitical landscape in Asia, specifically focusing on Indonesia's strategic pivot away from neutrality. Experts discuss how Jakarta is strengthening ties with the United States to counter China's aggressive maritime claims near the Strait of Malacca. The dialogue transitions to the complexities of nuclear proliferation, highlighting concerns regarding China's lack of transparency and its support for unstable regimes like Iran. Additional segments analyze the high-stakes diplomacy between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, noting the absence of traditional formal documentation in their communications. Contributors evaluate how economic dependenciesand competition for technological dominance in AI and space exploration define the current adversarial relationship. Ultimately, the sources portray a region increasingly defined by military exercises and the delicate balancing of global trade interests.

Indonesia is taking "baby steps" toward U.S. cooperation to counter China's unlawful maritime claims. James Holmeshighlights the importance of professional military education and potential overflight agreements to secure the Strait of Malacca. (5/16)

Từ lâu Bắc Kinh đã coi sự phụ thuộc nặng nề vào Malacca là một điểm yếu chí mạng. Năm 2003, Chủ tịch lúc bấy giờ là Hồ Cẩm Đào cảnh báo về “thế lưỡng nan Malacca”: mối quan ngại rằng bất kỳ cường quốc thù địch nào kiểm soát eo biển này đều có thể chiếm giữ nguồn cung năng lượng của Trung Quốc làm con tin. Xem thêm.

Spanish authorities and the W-H-O prepare for a high — stakes evacuation as a cruise ship hit by a deadly virus nears the Canary Islands. A fragile three—day ceasefire takes hold in Ukraine as Vladimir Putin marks a scaled—back Victory Day in Moscow. Three men, including two Canadians, are in U.S. custody after New York State Police intercepted a shipment of 89 firearms allegedly bound for the Canadian border. Three men convicted of first—degree murder in the 2022 killings of an elderly Abbotsford couple. A Frontier Airlines flight was forced to evacuate on a Denver runway late last night after striking a pedestrian during takeoff. Indonesia's finance minister sparks a regional row after suggesting a new toll for ships in the Strait of Malacca.A sellout crowd makes history in Toronto as the WNBA's first Canadian team makes a dramatic debut.

May 6, 2026 – Amid escalating global tensions over energy "choke points," attention is shifting from the Strait of Hormuz to the Malacca Strait—one of the world's busiest, narrowest shipping lanes, critical for China's energy imports...

Alpha Warrior and Josh Reid come in fired up after a Sunday show that hurt some feelings, and they are not slowing down. The duo opens with the David Morens indictment, the two unnamed coconspirators that almost certainly point to Peter Daszak and Ralph Baric, and the six day perjury statute clock ticking on Fauci. The DOJ said today they will not charge Fauci with perjury, which the guys read as a tell that the actual charge will be something much bigger. From there they roll into Kash Patel's Hannity sit down where Patel openly used the words grand conspiracy, talked about a hidden room of unburned burn bags inside the FBI, and credited rank and file good guys for leaving breadcrumbs. Alpha and Josh argue this was military intelligence preservation all along, finally being entered legally into evidence. Then the receipts. They reconstruct exactly how 2020 was stolen, walking from Soros funded 2018 secretary of state races to COVID timing to mail in ballot rule changes that state supreme courts later ruled unconstitutional. Plus the Strait of Malacca confirmation from Glenn Beck, the IRGC missile incident in UAE, and why the church may be next.

The National Security Hour with LTC Sargis Sangari – Today, the contest runs from the Straits of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca and into the Kra Isthmus. Deepwater harbors and pipelines were built as insurance. When those investments become stranded, it is a strategic blow to those who counted on them. At the same time, the new frontier is data. AI and massive server farms will ride fiber that follows...

The National Security Hour with LTC Sargis Sangari – Today, the contest runs from the Straits of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca and into the Kra Isthmus. Deepwater harbors and pipelines were built as insurance. When those investments become stranded, it is a strategic blow to those who counted on them. At the same time, the new frontier is data. AI and massive server farms will ride fiber that follows...

In this episode, Michael Brown dives into the global energy crisis, specifically the Strait of Hormuz closure, and its far-reaching implications. He breaks down the Strait's significance, explaining how it's a critical energy chokepoint, and how its closure is affecting global markets. Michael also discusses the US's strategic positioning, including the Indonesia Defense Pact, and how it's putting pressure on China's energy imports. He touches on the Venezuelan oil fields, the Strait of Malacca, and the complex web of alliances and rivalries in the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alpha Warrior and Josh Reid open the show in an unapologetically good mood, because the FAGA crowd insisting nothing was ever going to happen had a rough day at the office. Comey was indicted. Fauci's right hand man David Morens was indicted. The Southern Poverty Law Center got hit. Eric Swalwell's career imploded. ActBlue is being unwound. And Todd Blanche, the guy everyone was suspicious of two months ago, has quietly turned into the most aggressive acting AG in recent memory. The duo walks through why the Comey indictment is a pressure play to flip him onto Brennan, why retracting the Brennan subpoenas was misdirection, and how predicate crimes in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Minnesota are all being stitched into one massive RICO that they argue traces back to Watergate. From there it gets darker. The Morens indictment opens the door on EcoHealth Alliance, the 72 Ukraine bio labs, Soros, Burisma, and what they call the globalists' real dirty secret: genetic modification programs run through autonomous zones in third world countries. Plus the Strait of Malacca prediction, General Dan Cain's signal, and Trump's silent energy war on China.

Check this episode out on our YouTube: https://youtu.be/hc33VvhAS_I   In 1950, a teenager who'd dropped out of school to save the family farm bought one truck and started hauling gasoline. Today, Wayne Transports runs 750+ trucks, moves nearly 290,000 loads a year, and posts driver turnover rates a fraction of the industry average. In this episode, we sit down with the next generation of Wayne ownership to unpack the full story — the Korean War tragedy that almost ended the company before it started, the bank loan that gave it its name, the move from Milaca to Rosemount that unlocked decades of growth, and how the family handed the president's chair to a non-family member for the first time in company history… one month before COVID hit. We also get into the operational side: the AI tools rebuilding their dispatch floor, the camera + safety stack keeping their fleet on the road, the acquisition playbook that's added 35 trucks a year, and why their turnover sits at 18% while the rest of the industry burns through drivers at 60-90%. If you run a fleet, drive for one, or want to understand how a real American trucking dynasty actually gets built — this one is for you.  

//The Wire//2300Z April 24, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: BUILDUP OF AMERICAN FORCES IN MIDDLE EAST REACHES RECORD LEVELS. KUWAITI BORDER CHECKPOINTS HIT BY FPV DRONES. ARREST MADE REGARDING MOLOTOV ATTACK IN LOUISIANA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----  -International Events-Middle East: Overnight Kuwaiti forces reported two FPV drone strikes on border crossing checkpoints with Iraq. No casualties were reported as a result of the attack.Analyst Comment: The statement provided by the Kuwaiti Army did not specifically disclose which border crossings were targeted, however there are only two crossing points in total: one main crossing on the northern border, and a smaller outpost on the western border. The interesting detail in the notice is the disclosure that these attacks were conducted by fiber-optically-guided FPV drones, and both of these sites were too far away from each other for these attacks to have been conducted by the same team.-HomeFront-Louisiana: This morning one individual was arrested following the firebombing of a Tesla Service Center two weeks ago. John Michael Hinkhouse was arrested for throwing a Molotov device at the entrance to the facility, which resulted in fire damaging the front of the building. Hinkhouse was located after security cameras tracked him back to his residence after the attack.Washington D.C. - Two incidents involving city busses have taken place over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, a bus caught fire in the 9th Street Tunnel, resulting in the tunnel being shut down for many hours. The cause of the fire remains unknown. This morning, two city busses collided with each other head-on in the Pentagon's south parking lot, resulting in a total of 23x people being injured.Analyst Comment: Currently there are no indications that either incident was nefarious in any way, however it's worth paying attention to during periods of heightened terrorism risk, just in case other incidents pop up later.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Concerning strategic movement in the Middle East, American cargo flights continue unabated, along with the forward deployment of even more fighter aircraft. Last night another squadron of F/A-18's arrived at Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, and the USS GEORGE H.W. BUSH (CVN 77) arrived in the Indian Ocean following her long journey around Africa. Another Expeditionary Sea Base (ESB), the USS MIGUEL KIETH (ESB 5) is also projected to be approaching the operational area, after having transited the Strait of Malacca and should be arriving on station soon (though it is not clear as to if she is expected to take part in this operation).This brings a total of 3x aircraft carriers, 2x Expeditionary Sea Bases, and 1x amphibious assault ship (a total of 6 "flat tops") for whatever operations are planned. Of note, CENTCOM has provided press materials that imply that the BUSH is not replacing the LINCOLN or the damaged FORD but will serve independently as a third strike group throughout the region. This buildup has become even more substantial than the 4+ months of lead-up to this war breaking out, with even more naval assets being transferred from the Pacific to supplement the forces already in theater. As a reminder, at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne is still in the region. Considering all of these developments, the grand question remains: Does the US plan to reignite the war? This remains an unknown, and it's impossible to know what secret decisions have been made at the upper echelons of government. What is certain, is that a large-scale rearmament and resupply operation has been ongoing since the ceasefire went into effect, and enough resources are on station to conduct large scale operations if that is the chosen course of action. Not only is the war not over, but there are now vastly more resources i

Are we already in a global war—and just not calling it that? In this high-stakes episode, we break down the Pentagon's deployment of advanced laser defense systems aboard the USS George H.W. Bush and what it signals about the future of combat operations. We also examine escalating tensions involving China and Iran, including claims of missile support, satellite targeting, and proxy warfare in critical regions like the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. From strategic control of global choke points—like the Strait of Malacca and Panama Canal—to questions about nuclear capability and economic dominance, this episode explores whether the U.S. is already engaged in a broader geopolitical conflict. Featuring analysis tied to policies from Donald Trump and commentary from voices like Jesse Watters, we unpack the strategy, the risks, and what could come next.

IRAN HAS decided to play red light, green light with the Strait of Hormuz. Less than 24 hours after President Trump announced the opening of the critical waterway, Iran declared it closed again. Further, two Indian flagged tankers reportedly came under fire from Iranian speedboats. This suggests that negotiations between the US and Iran over a peaceful resolution to Operation Epic Fury are simply a stalling tactic by the Iranian regime, perhaps counting on Democrats winning the midterm elections or even the 2028 presidential election. Given the way Presidents Biden and Obama willingly sent billions of dollars to Tehran, you can hardly blame them. We discuss the bind into which Iran has placed China, which gets up to 20% of its oil imports from the Islamic regime – at a deep discount because Iran has few buyers for its oil due to sanctions. This is exacerbated by China's loss of access to Venezuelan oil. As a result, China has had to suddenly ramp up its purchases of American oil to roughly $10 billion worth per month. In addition, the United States just signed a defense agreement with Indonesia. That nation sits on the west side of the cap, Strait of Malacca, a waterway even more critical to China's oil imports than the Strait of Hormuz. And to make things more interesting, American oil sails through the Panama Canal, which is now once again under American control, thanks to President Trump. In short, the United States now controls China's access to about 25% of its oil imports, and has military control over waterways through which about 80% of Chinese oil imports flow, for which the Chinese must now pay full price. This may be President Trump's way of responding to China's threats to control American access to critical rare earth minerals. We also discuss the corrupting influence of social media on sharing the gospel. Children now graduate high school so reliant on artificial intelligence that they literally don't see the need to read anything longer than a menu. So, reading the Bible is a concept that is completely foreign to them. Sharon's niece, Sarah Sachleben, is fighting stage 4 bowel cancer, and the medical bills are piling up. If you are led to help, please go to GilbertHouse.org/hopeforsarah. Follow us! X (formerly Twitter): @pidradio | @sharonkgilbert | @derekgilbert | @gilberthouse_tvTelegram: t.me/gilberthouse | t.me/sharonsroom | t.me/viewfromthebunkerSubstack: gilberthouse.substack.comYouTube: @GilbertHouse | @UnravelingRevelationFacebook.com/pidradio JOIN US IN ISRAEL! We will tour the Holy Land October 11–23, 2026 with an optional three-day extension to Jordan. For more information, log on to GilbertHouse.org/travel. Thank you for making our Build Barn Better project a reality! Our 1,200 square foot pole barn has a new HVAC system, epoxy floor, 100-amp electric service, new windows, insulation, lights, and ceiling fans! If you are so led, you can help out by clicking here: gilberthouse.org/donate. Get our free app! It connects you to this podcast, our weekly Bible studies, and our weekly video programs Unraveling Revelation and A View from the Bunker. The app is available for iOS, Android, Roku, and Apple TV. Links to the app stores are at pidradio.com/app. Video on demand of our best teachings! Stream presentations and teachings based on our research at our new video on demand site: gilberthouse.org/video! Think better, feel better! Our partners at Simply Clean Foods offer freeze-dried, 100% GMO-free food and delicious, vacuum-packed fair trade coffee from Honduras. Find out more at GilbertHouse.org/store/.

A major shift in global power is unfolding. As tensions with Iran appear to cool under mounting economic pressure, a bigger and more dangerous confrontation may be taking shape. Is this the end of one conflict—or the beginning of something far larger?

From record-breaking tax refunds to rising global tensions, today's episode connects the dots between your wallet and world power. Is America entering a new era of economic strength—and a dangerous geopolitical showdown?

Ghost breaks down what may be one of the most significant geopolitical shifts in years: a US/Iran peace deal that has the Strait of Hormuz reopening, oil prices dropping, and Trump publicly putting Netanyahu on notice. Ghost walks through Trump's Truth Social blitz, Steve Bannon's signal-setting role, and the "Venezuela model" now playing out with Iran. From the Strait of Malacca to an Iraq/Saudi pipeline revival, a US troop exit from Syria, and Erdogan emerging as a key player, this episode covers the full board. Africa gets its moment too, with DRC rare earth tensions and Russia deepening Congo ties. If you thought the Middle East narrative was winding down, think again: Ghost argues it is just reorganizing.

Religious influence, political backlash, and a rapidly escalating global power struggle—today's episode connects the dots between the Vatican, U.S. politics, and a high-stakes fight over global shipping lanes. What's really happening beneath the headlines? ⚡ HOOK (OPEN) From the Vatican… to the world's most critical shipping lanes—this isn't just politics. It's power.

President Trump saying on Tuesday that Pakistan's capital city Islamabad is the likely location for US-Iran peace talks. The President confirmed that he would not attend the Iran peace talks, but did not say who would be attending. Speaking on Fox News, President Trump saying he views the war as close to over.Late Tuesday night, House lawmakers advanced a controversial section of a spy bill known as FISA. But the path forward is uncertain, with President Trump calling on Republicans to unite. A floor debate is scheduled for Wednesday on Section 702 of FISA, ahead of a final vote to extend this spy power for the next 18 months without any reforms. This spy power is not without controversy, although it's meant to target intelligence from foreign nationals outside the United States, critics say there aren't enough guardrails to prevent the government from unlawfully spying on American citizens.On Monday, the U.S. and Indonesia upgraded their defense relationship to what they're calling a 'Major Defense Cooperation Partnership.' The move deepens coordination on maritime security in Southeast Asia, highlighting the Strait of Malacca, a narrow but critical shipping lane linking the Indian and Pacific Ocean. Under the new deal, the U.S. and Indonesia will expand joint training, deploy sensors, and integrate American surveillance technology. The goal is to improve monitoring of the waterway and give Washington more presence in the region.

The March 2026 CPI report delivered inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a rising gas prices amid the escalating Iran crisis. The U.S. has now imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil flows and tightening the squeeze on energy markets. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon are holding rare direct peace talks in Washington. At the same time, the Administration has just put agreements in place making it easier to control the Straight of Malacca. Plus, Congressman Eric Swalwell's political career collapses over four days after multiple sexual misconduct allegations surface, and that doesn't even cover the ongoing criminal investigations. We break down the economic fallout, geopolitical risks and what these developments mean for America's future in episode 71 of The Alan Sanders Show. Please take a moment to rate and review the show and then share the episode on social media. You can find me on Facebook, X, Instagram, GETTR, TRUTH Social, TikTok, YouTube and Rumble by searching for The Alan Sanders Show. And, consider becoming a sponsor of the show by visiting my Patreon page!

We don't have a new episode this week, so we're cracking open the Patreon vault and releasing one of our bonus episodes on The Ghost Bride! Join us on our journey to 1890s Malacca, and learn about the ghost bride custom, clothing, currency, and more! Sources: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-37103447 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-07/ghost-marriages-in-rural-china-continue-to-thrive/9608624 Wenzhang Zhou and Yang Feng, "When Religious Folk Practice Meets Karl Marx: Courts' Response to Ghost Marriage in Modern China," Religions, 14 (2023) Myron L. Cohen, "Souls and Salvation: Conflicting Themes in Chinese Popular Religion," in Death Ritual in Late Imperial and Modern China, ed. James L. Watson and Evelyn S. Rawski. University of California Press, 1990 Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ghost_Bride_(TV_series)  Patrick Brzeski, "Netflix Unveils Launch Dates for First Trio of Chinese-Language Originals," The Hollywood Reporter, 26 August 2019, https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/netflix-sets-launch-dates-first-chinese-language-originals-1234398/  Mathew Scott, "Netflix Launches Mobile-Only Plan for Malysia," The Hollywood Reporter, 24 October 2019, https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/netflix-launches-mobile-plan-malaysia-1249730/  https://decider.com/2020/01/23/the-ghost-bride-netflix-stream-it-or-skip-it/ Chiang Hai Ding, "The Origins of the Malaysian Currency System (1867-1906)," Journal of the Malaysian Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society 39, no.1 (1966): 1-18. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41491873  The Kebaya: https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20230302-the-asian-blouse-that-tells-a-tale-of-many-cultures  Peranakan fashion: https://www.roots.gov.sg/stories-landing/stories/peranakan-fashion-and-its-international-sources/story  Singapore, Sarong Kebaya and Style: Peranakan Fashion (National Heritage Board), https://artsandculture.google.com/story/6AVxGAwa3F7DJA?hl=en 

A single chokepoint can shake the global economy. From the Strait of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca, Pat breaks down the key routes controlling oil, trade, and power. If even one shuts down, the ripple effects hit gas prices, supply chains, and global stability.

Diesel nears $5 as the Iran conflict squeezes global supply, raising fears of rising costs and economic slowdown. The panel breaks down short-term vs long-term impact, recession risks, and how global chokepoints like Hormuz and Malacca shape energy, trade, and power.