durée : 00:38:06 - Le Temps du débat - par : Emmanuel Laurentin - En Chine, le groupe Evergrande frôle le défaut de paiement, la production manufacturière est toujours ralentie à cause de la hausse des prix de l'énergie et la croissance domestique diminue : ces difficultés sont-elles le signe d'un effondrement à venir du système financier et économique chinois ? - invités : Hubert Testard Spécialiste de l'Asie et des enjeux économiques internationaux, ancien conseiller économique et financier en Asie, enseignant au collège des affaires internationales de Sciences Po sur l'analyse prospective de l'Asie; Chunyan Li Consultante indépendante sur les relations franco-chinoises, présidente de FEIDA Consulting; François Godement Historien et sinologue, conseiller pour l'Asie à l'Institut Montaigne, membre associé du Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
CFA Society Chicago member Tony Zhang, Ph.D., GMP, MBA, CFA, turns the tables on regular podcast host, Rich Excell, CFA to discuss Evergrande and volatility in the Asian markets. Connect with Tony on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/tony-zhang-ph-d-gmp-mba-cfa-507ab56/ Connect with Rich on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/richexcellcfa/ and Twitter @ExcellRichard For more episodes go to www.cfachicago.org/podcasts
TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS: Hmmm That's Odd 0:00 2 ANOMALIES 0:35 UNTAPPED TRANSPORT 7:38 INFLATION CREATION 9:04 $GPS INSIGHTS #1 FIGURES DO NOT ADD UP AND THAT CREATES A BIG CONCERN #2 INFLATION IS PUSHING MOST PEOPLE TO FEEL HARD TIMES #3 INVESTORS CAN HOLD REAL ASSETS, DIVERSIFY, AND BE AGILE bfm7D43.jpg (942×573) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7D43.jpg?itok=Ol71qUwK Consumer prices rise more than expected as energy costs surge https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/13/the-consumer-price-index-rose-5point4percent-year-over-year-in-september-vs-5point3percent-estimate.html Winter heating bills set to jump as inflation hits home https://apnews.com/article/business-prices-inflation-28e1231bdb445d482bb2d2e25dff1983 Prices continue to rise—here's what's getting the most expensive https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/13/prices-continue-to-riseheres-whats-getting-the-most-expensive.html 2021-10-13 (1).png (1265×648) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-10-13%20%281%29.png?itok=FfNfBrZU 2021-10-13 (3).png (894×612) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2021-10-13%20%283%29.png?itok=h7vUACo9 Microsoft Word - National Report_Oct2021-FINAL.docx https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2021/10/08/national-report-101221-final.pdf Untapped potential: Far too little freight on US waterways, experts say - FreightWaves https://www.freightwaves.com/news/far-too-little-freight-on-us-waterways-experts-say BARGEfirstname.lastname@example.org (1224×1033) https://s29755.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/BARGEemail@example.com 'There will be things that people can't get,' at Christmas, White House warns | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-may-not-get-some-christmas-treats-white-house-officials-warn-2021-10-12/ White House: Walmart, FedEx, UPS to go 24/7 to address supply bottlenecks | TheHill https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/576463-white-house-says-walmart-fedex-ups-will-move-to-24-7-model-to-address?rl=1 A Stock Market Malaise With the Shadow of '70s-Style Stagflation – DNyuz https://dnyuz.com/2021/10/13/a-stock-market-malaise-with-the-shadow-of-70s-style-stagflation/ Column: Beset by coal shortages, India's power grid struggles to meet demand: Kemp | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/beset-by-coal-shortages-indias-power-grid-struggles-meet-demand-kemp-2021-10-12/ China liberalises coal-fired power pricing to tackle energy crisis | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-liberalise-thermal-power-pricing-tackle-energy-crisis-2021-10-12/ China property shares pummelled as Evergrande impact widens | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-property-shares-pummelled-evergrande-impact-widens-2021-10-14/ Big boost for Social Security benefits as inflation rises https://apnews.com/article/social-security-cola-increase-4f2cd7b763371b91923227be883e367e?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP Fed says it could begin 'gradual tapering process' by mid-November https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/13/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-its-september-policy-meeting.html Singapore central bank tightens policy in surprise move | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/singapore-cenbank/singapore-central-bank-tightens-policy-in-surprise-move-idUSP8N2N4014 Federal Reserve Taper Could Start in Mid-Nov. or Dec.: FOMC Minutes - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-13/fed-officials-saw-taper-starting-in-mid-november-or-mid-december
Evergrande misses bond payments againRiver overflows, drowns 12 Chinese villagesChinese farmers cope with flooded cropsChinese state media wants gaming loopholes closedTaiwan resident: war can happen at anytime
PricewaterhouseCoopers earned over forty million dollars in fees auditing China Evergrande and signed off on the accounts presented to them by management for all of those years. PWC is likely to face criticism over the level of push back they gave to management over accounting policies that could have shown warning signs about the company's financial health many years before the collapse.Around the world, auditors have faced criticism when companies have collapsed, and auditor negligence cases have become more common in recent years. In the UK The Financial Reporting Council has begun a probe into the accountancy firms that audited Greensill Capital and Wyelands Bank, a bank controlled by Sangeev Gupta which lent money to his other firms and is central to the Greensill scandal. NMC Health, Luckin Coffee and Wirecard are three recent financial scandals and one factor that they have in common, is that EY, through its affiliates in various countries, was the auditor for all three.A British high court ordered EY to pay a large settlement to a former partner in Dubai last year, for retaliating against him for blowing the whistle on an alleged money-laundering scheme by a client.These cases have dealt a series of heavy blows to EY's credibility and integrity, even though EY has said it was unaware of longtime financial shenanigans by its clients and was duped along with everyone else. The quality of Evergrande's assets is also likely be one of the main issues picked over if the lid is lifted by its creditors. Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle On Finance YouTube Channel Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)
US futures are slightly higher as of 05:00 ET. European equity markets are mostly higher after moving off early lows, while Asian trade was mixed. The market's focus remains on inflationary pressures and supply chain concerns ahead of US CPI data today. Technology supply chain pressures have been brought into sharper focus following reports that Apple is preparing to cut its iPhone 13 production target due to the chip shortage. Companies mentioned: Apple, Texas Instruments, Broadcom, BOE Technology Group, KKR, Evergrande, SAP
McAlvany Weekly Commentary CDS Credit Default Swaps signal acute stress in Chinese bond markets Harry Figgie “Bankruptcy 1995” was early but not wrong Ultra-high inflation will be the result of big, bad debt defaults worldwide The post Evergrande wants to pay YOU 75% interest! appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
Bakes' Takes Podcast Show Notes Friday, October 8, 2021 :26 Why I do this—Bobby, Jack, please listen in. ‘87 crash, journey, technical analysis first, fundamentals second, not right or wrong, just works for me. read WSJ, Barron's Economist, listen to podcasts, devour relevant newsletters, monitor what Google alerts bring. Point you to them, but if you don't want to do that, please know that I'll do it for you and I eat home cooking, I have no conflicts. What are your pain points? Problems you'd like solved? Topics I should cover? Thank you. 1:42 Thank you especially Charlie, Justin, Murph from this Luddite. 1:49 Supercast/Patreon levels. Weekly call with me on Discord, teach technical analysis, etc. You help me design the show. Guests I should reach out to. Text like I send to my sons. 610-331-4283. 2:39 Not investment advice. Please conduct, and share, your own due diligence. 2:50 Bakes' Take—Fan Mail! Calls! Questions! Mike! Jack—SOFI, 10-year yield 2:55 SOFI--$18.58, watch for big volume, plug into Google Alerts 4:20 Agree with thesis—student loans, restart in January, refi opportunity 4:59 Higher rates good for them, NIM widen? 5:30 Cross selling. Makes sense 5:34 Noto—Chamath, high praise 5:55 Compete with Robinhood, crypto? 6:09 JPM, etc. sick of fintech eating lunch 6:32 Bakes' Take--$18.58 close! Big volume? 7;26 10-year 1.57% CLOSE, 1.7%, 1.765%, wait for close but seems likely 8:12 Charlie, NYC, SPCE—Virgin, dead money, SpaceX private widely regarded as the best, all losing money, early imo, Momentus/MNTS, Maxar/MAXR, Rocket Lab/RKLB, Ark Space/ARKX 9:39 SPCE—space tourism? Not where want to be, Chamath has sold lot of stock 10:33 ARKX—Close below $19.12, very bad, Close above $21.19, very good 11:13 Rocket Lab/RKLB—best looking chart imo, do more work 12:03 LMT—old space, nothing going on 12:26 Bakes' Take—I encourage you to let markets point you to opportunity, rather than news, etc. RKLB possible, but rest of space is avoid. SPACEX goes public different story. 13:54 Square/SQ—close below 200 dma, big volume, great company, 144 P/E 15:18 Bakes' Take—If you have a DDM you would bet your life on different story. Sell discipline kicked in works very well, if hit new highs so be it. 16:00 BUT…Good example for Bakes' Takes+--I will monitor your stocks/ETF's alert you of buy and sell points. What else would you like? 16:20 Charlie again-- very long-term secular bull market as a result of the democratization of finance and the stock market? Seems like there has never been so much dry power and new entrants into the market…doesn't this mean (all things being equal) there are more people coming into the market which structurally over the long-term will lift asset levels? 16:32 “Increased retail activity could be contributing to record inflows into Equities this year so far—the annualized inflow of $1 trillion to global stocks in 2021 is greater than the cumulative inflow of the prior 20 years, according to BofA Global Research.” 16:56 Free trading, access over cell phones (which are now being put in the hands of billions of people world-wide) and a broader adoption/mass movement of financial education seems like the perfect cocktail of a worldwide buying spree…right? 17:28 These extrapolations, linear thinking, appear at the right arrow not the left, up 7x, you have only seen up, first time Fed can't prop up market, all the above reverses 19:01 SPY—daily, gap down, close below 50, so far low volume rally to underside/resistance, just warning sign for now 19:50 Bakes' Take—very long term, up and to the right, do that with 401(k) etc. But we are humans not robots, will panic at some point, I think I can help https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBFd0tZsQzs&t=1s 20:58 Generation Gamble, Melissa Lee, CNBC, docs will be different in bear market 21:31 GameStop/GME--$212 to $344 good call, now $173, $161.41 rising 200 dma, leaning to downside, what are future positive catalysts? 22:27 Won't Get Fooled Again/Weekend in Greenwich largely over, screens for high short interest exploited https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-30/robinhood-s-popularity-is-fading-away-with-the-meme-stock-fad 25:13 High quality SPACs rare, SOFI perhaps, still prefer shorting de SPACs, EV's via SOGU 25:53 Bakes' Takes—My Themes/Groups 26:46 URNM--$71, $75, $80 now, likely consolidating base from here to $98, building next launch pad, volume increasing nicely, 96 RS, let THIS winner run! 27:54 Copper/Sell discipline—50 dma crossed below 200 dma, if 200 dma turns down, gone, up 14% ytd, +18% since inception URNM—Weekly chart. 50% retracement URNM—Daily Chart?+ YTD $42.90, $86.31 More than double, obviously. 28:45 EUM—Short MSCI Emerging Markets, Fact Sheet, short Communism, I mean China, Evergrande, etc. 30:18 Bakes' Take—Last week--Own some uranium here, I will alert you to dips. Dips in rest of market more likely, copper, short emerging markets, elsewhere. Getting tired, stay tuned. 30:45 Bakes' Takes-Gray Swan Now front page of WSJ! Liza Lin, James Areddy 32:55 Bakes' Take-Taiwan, Evergrande, HK, Tech, list keeps growing! Bakes' Take—Podcasts of the Week! https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/understanding-evergrande-the-chinese-real-estate/id1056200096?i=1000535983185 33:34 Odd Lots—Evergrande best explained 34:06 Bakes' Take— I treat like COVID, don't panic, watch charts, but don't dismiss. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bonus-episode-elon-musk-at-code-conference-2021/id1073226719?i=1000537717272 34:49 Elon Musk, Kara Swisher at Code, fascinating, more space than cars, quit as TSLA CEO, SPACEX $100B last capital raise, more Bakes' Take—Reporters of the Week! 36:14
TOPICS AND TIMESTAMPS: The Extreme 0:00 CHINA'S NEW CRISIS 0:39 EVERGRANDE CONTAGION 5:52 INFLATION STATION 10:19 $GPS INSIGHTS #1 CHINA'S PROBLEMS CANNOT BE CONTAINED EASILY #2 SUPER LOW INTEREST RATES CREATE ISSUES THAT CAN'T BE RESOLVED #3 FUNDAMENTAL CRISES NEED RESOLUTION ON A PERSONAL LEVEL china thermal coal 10.11.jpg (1240×694) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20thermal%20coal%2010.11.jpg?itok=93jA0PZA china therma coal futs.jpg (1237×694) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20therma%20coal%20futs.jpg?itok=yhgQSpQL china coal futs vs ppi.jpg (1236×693) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20coal%20futs%20vs%20ppi.jpg?itok=vyTnddIB china barometer.jpg (802×1052) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20barometer.jpg?itok=FHnPynR5 China Coal Futures Surge to Record as Flood Swamps Mine Hub - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-11/china-coal-futures-surge-to-record-amid-flooding-in-key-mine-hub 1400x-1.png (1400×1112) https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iuipgk.BERtM/v0/1400x-1.png China's Energy Crisis Deepens With Coal Soaring, Flooding in Mining Region - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-12/coal-hits-another-record-in-china-as-floods-deepen-energy-crisis China's power crisis prompts warning from rust-belt despite efforts to boost coal supply, manage electricity | South China Morning Post https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3151934/chinas-power-crisis-prompts-warning-rust-belt-despite-efforts Evergrande crisis: developer Modern Land (China) seeks debt extension, to repay US$87.5 million early | South China Morning Post https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3151913/evergrande-crisis-developer-modern-land-china-seeks-debt China's bond markets slump again as new Evergrande deadline passes | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-bondholders-brace-mondays-coupon-deadline-2021-10-11/ Bondholders Didn't Receive Interest Payments: Evergrande Update - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-11/investors-scour-property-sector-for-stress-evergrande-update crude steel production.jpg (593×409) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/crude%20steel%20production.jpg?itok=ciefNmpi Xi Jinping Scrutinizes Chinese Financial Institutions' Ties With Private Firms - WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinping-scrutinizes-chinese-financial-institutions-ties-with-private-firms-11633972484?mod=hp_lead_pos6 Michael Burry Archive (@BurryArchive) / Twitter https://twitter.com/BurryArchive/status/1445891161277837312/photo/1 Kraft Heinz says people must get used to higher food prices - BBC News https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58847275 Gas prices skyrocket as the global energy crisis worsens - CNN https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/11/business/gas-prices-oil-opec/index.html Yet another worry: Price of ship fuel is now highest since 2014 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/yet-another-worry-price-of-ship-fuel-is-now-highest-since-2014 Snag_1247bc35.png (914×455) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Snag_1247bc35.png?itok=rDPAeCEJ Snag_127a87bf.png (1144×482) https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Snag_127a87bf.png?itok=bV-Pm-y- Some Colorado River farmers are paid to leave fields dry - Los Angeles Times https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2021-10-10/colorado-river-california-farmers-dry-fields-fallow-drought
US futures are lower as of 05:00 ET. European equity markets opened lower, following broad weakness in Asia and yesterday's negative Wall Street close. Nothing incremental as the path of least resistance for equity markets still to the downside. Rally in global commodity markets continues to attract attention. Companies mentioned: Evergrande, Electrolux Professional, Dover Corp, Tesla, Intercontinental Hotels Group
Sejam bem-vindos ao milésimo quadringentésimo trigésimo segundo Spin de Notícias, o seu giro diário de informações científicas... em escala sub-atômica. E nesse Spin de Notícias falaremos sobre... Economia! *Este episódio, assim como tantos outros projetos vindouros, só foi possível por conta do Patronato do SciCast. Se você quiser mais episódios assim, contribua conosco!*
Susan Ariel Aaronson, Director of the Digital Trade and Data Governance Hub at George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs in Washington, D.C. joins hosts Ardian Mollabeciri and Robert Skidmore on Trade Splaining to talk about why data governance is so difficult to get right, why it matters...and what we can do about it. She also gives her own special take on kebabs. On this episode, Ardian and Rob also discuss: The Evergrande crisis and what the bursting of China's housing bubble means for the rest of the world The skyrocketing rise in applications by countries to join global trade agreements Whether or not today's tech companies really are modern day monopolies Local News Listener Feedback
China's crackdown on property developers threatens the London property market.Evergrande, the world's most indebted developer, sparked fears across global markets as it missed a crucial interest deadline on its offshore debts. This week, another developer, Fantasia, defaulted on an offshore bond. A property consultant close to London's development market was contacted in the wake of the Evergrande crisis by a UK regulator with concerns about the risks of contagion in London. “The big question is whether the Chinese will restrict investment overseas,” he said. “That would be a pretty big crisis in the UK and elsewhere.” Between 2013 and 2018, buyers from mainland China and Hong Kong poured close to £3.5bn into London, accounting for almost the entire flow of cross-border investment into the city's land in 2017, according to Real Capital Analytics.Thousands of high-end flats bankrolled by Chinese developers lie unfinished and unsold in Central London as Chinese developers come under pressure from the “three red lines” that seek to curb excessive leverage across the Chinese property sector by limiting the amount property companies can borrow. Could Evergrande impact global property prices?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle On Finance YouTube Channel Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)
This is an abbreviated version of our full podcast, also available here! Today we're talking with Property Syndicate Manager Andrew Cushman! Join us for this enlightening conversation on a method of investing that few people even consider, instead going with the classic forms of investment via stocks or real estate purchases. 1:00 - What is a property syndicate? How is this different from just buying some real estate and going from there? What is your role as the ‘leader' of the syndicate? 4:50 - What are some of the key differences with closing on a $50 Million property? Is it different than closing on a ‘normal priced' property? We get some pretty crazy answers and numbers here! 8:00 - How do you know that you're under-contract for the right properties? These are huge investments, how are you sure that they aren't going to go south? 13:00 - What's the #1 disqualifies that you see on these large purchases? 28:30 - Why is the sponsor, or the ‘who' so important? What does cash-flow have to do with a purchase or what the books look like. What role does management play in the value of a property? 34:00 - On the $50 Million property investment, what kind of jump in value did you see? Was there a jump at all? Did the rent increase at all? How do you actually get the added value in the property? 39:00 - What about the investors? What kind of interest or dividends do you see projected for your clients? 43:30 - What is the ‘black swan' event that can cause returns to diminish on these property investments? What are the ramifications for large scale loss potentials? For example, this last year the federal government allowed people to not pay rent. Did this affect the way you operate your business? Is it actually be better to be part of a syndicate in this situation or just a single property owner? 51:50 - How many properties do you manage? Is this a situation where an investor can just provide the money and ‘set it and forget it?' What work is required by the investors? 55:00 - Why is there hesitation in going into a property syndicate versus investing in the stock market? Do property syndicates have a bad reputation? Why is the stock market seemingly preferred when you do a bit of research? 1:03:30 - Have you ever lost money in your investments? What's the worst syndicate you've been involved with? 1:08:14 - What is your plan for the next economy downturn? It will happen eventually, is property syndication sustainable through a downturn? 1:19:30 - What is the minimum for an investor to join your syndicate? How about minimum net worth or income to be considered for joining? What is a 506-B? What is a 506-C? 1:23:50 - What's up with the Evergrande real estate problem with the Chinese Government? Does it have any reprocuctions here in the USA? What do you think will happen with that?
Here's what is happening in the markets today, Monday, October 11th.The Evergrande Crisis:The big Chinese Developer is on the brink of bankruptcy. How does this affect the markets?Should we be concerned?That's what we're going to talk about in today's Stock Market NewsThis wraps up today's stock market news.If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" video, make sure to subscribe to this channel. And for more stock market news, visit https://rockwelltrading.com.#todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket
Welcome to Finance and Fury. In this episode we will be looking at the Property market in China and focus on the Evergrande developments – in particular if there is actually a timebomb starting to surface – and look at the potential contagion risks to the rest of the world – such as the Aus and US Many in the press are comparing what is happening to Evergrande as another Lehman's moment – which was one of the defining collapses of a financial institution that lead to the flow of effects culminating in the GFC – it is understandable that the media takes this route – Lehman's is a recognisable name and fear and doom scenarios generates more clicks and sells more adds – but is this worst-case scenario true? Is the collapse of Evergrande really going to lead to another global financial crisis? A few weeks ago – we covered where the next financial collapse is likely to come from – between the USA and China - Two factors were the focus – leverage and contagion risks Looking at leverage - Credit growth is a major risk to almost every market – both from bonds from investors and lending from bank of financial institution borrowing – both of these are relevant to the private sector in China Credit growth is even a concern in Australia – APRA worried about banks and lending – they have increased their servicing cost by 0.5% - worried about credit growth vastly outpacing income growth But the major focus for any systemic issue is the contagion risks – if one company defaults, does this create a GFC, or just a collapse of an isolated entity – The loss potentials are substantially different between both scenarios – one is investors in a company losing money versus every investor globally losing funds due to collapsing markets world wide – the degree they collapse also is different If Evergrande fails – what does this matter? At this stage - The irony of the contagion risks is from the increased news coverage that this topic is being granted – if a topic is covered in the news everywhere – this creates uncertainty and fear – investors can panic – this creates real market declines, so the risk of market declines become a self-fulfilling prophecy – even me covering this topic can create some level of risk aversion, which may cause people to sell off investments – but is there more than just the normal fears in the markets from media coverage occurring? To start with - What is happening in China – We need to look at their property market, or more specifically the debt that property developers hold – especially in relation to Evergrande and Chinese economy at large Chinese economy - the rise and fall of Evergrande is tied into the economy of China quite heavily – Evergrande is China's second largest property developer – but this ranks around 147th in the world – but it is the most indebted property developer in the world – which should start to ring some alarm bells – it's on balance sheet liabilities amount to around 2% of Chinas GDP – off balance sheet – this could be higher – and likely is A company in isolation with debt isn't much of an issue – but a company with too much debt can be a problem – In isolation this isn't too much of an issue – if the company defaults but business in other sectors of the economy continues as normal then markets may go down a bit but then continue as normal – but what if this one company is a sign of greater systemic issues - where most of the companies in your country in this sector have the same problems – that of having too much debt that they are likely to default on? Especially in the property sector – The BIS released a paper showing that Chinese non-financial companies have 160% Debt to GDP, versus in the US where it is about 80% - so double in China compared to the US – Property also has an overweight on GDP compared to the US It is estimated that property development makes up around 25% of China's GDP – this growth has been fuelled by Debt – this is a major issue for the CCP - China property market – the history over the past 20 years The increase in demand for property and the increase in pricing has been fuelled by massive amounts of urbanisation – rural workers/population moving to cities for work and a better income for their families High demand for properties in desirable cites has massively inflated the property values in these urban environment – developers often sell every property in a development in advance of the construction even starting This has led to lower quality – contractors skimming on materials to lower costs – where constructions can actually collapse in a few years after completion Prices to income ratios – results in a situation where you have generations of people living in one apartment trying to repay the loans We think that Australia is bad – and it is – but many major cities in China, such as Shenzhen see 43 times the average household income in property prices – compared to Sydney which was around 13 times at the peak of the market Speculation – large increases in property prices saw massive speculation in developers – if you think that the property that you will construct today can lead to a 50% gain in the next year or two – then you will likely borrow large chunks of money to bank on this trend Lead to many apartments not being rented, and purchasers buying up more than one property – but the limit per family is capped The population is also limited in what they can invest in – so property is where most of the upper middle class and beyond put their life savings Large property developers are politically connected – But this has created moral hazard – every loan given, or bond investments have been made based around how likely it is for the government to bail out these developers Rather than on their ability to meet the debt repayment cashflow Moral hazard is a large component of any investment or economic decision – as an example – say you have an expensive car – now in one situation you have comprehensive insurance and in another you have no cover – in which situation are you likely to drive a little more recklessly, or park this in a car park unattended overnight? Same goes for insurances – especially if you are forced to have insurances – you may as well use it for your premiums – such as health insurances – But what if we are talking about a government backing debt for bail outs – and that is the expectation of the markets – this creates a moral hazard - But China realised they have a debt problem – as well as a moral hazard problem - so policy makers tried to reign this in – focusing on moral hazard first and foremost Policy changes – the CCP put together that their economic growth is mostly paper/debt based – where the growth they are receiving in GDP is funded through borrowing from property expansion – which is not sustainable in real terms They want to transition their economy to more long-term sustainable growth – real estate is the most important sector in their economy at the moment – but this is debt reliant – they prefer real returns – which is why you see a push towards resources and other manufacturing sectors – but a real issue in China is the affordability of property Look at government policy across the world – they always say that they promise to tackle issues of property affordability – but then comes a situation where prices are starting to decline – what do governments do? Create policies to help prop prices up to avoid a decline which could have further reaching issues – governments don't want bubbles, but they don't want a collapse China appears to be the first government in a long time to not follow this pattern – they are trying to change moral hazard – and expectations in the market -which can easily lead to collapses in the property sector Rather than bail out Evergrande – which would be easy for the CCP – it appears that at this stage they have decided to let this company deal with their own problems This is technically how it should be – but it is rare to see this response I think this is mostly due to their Hard lines polices – trying to reduce the economy reliance on debts – They actually introduced three hard line policies on property developers in Aug 2020 These are hard limits on property developers – relating to their liability to asset ratios, net debt to equity ratios, cash to short term debt ratios – all of these are important when it comes to developers who fund their projects using debt now for equity in the future Had an instant effect on property development firms – no longer could you raise capital through debt funding as most developers were above the allowable ratios What made this is worse, is they had to reduce their debt levels – to do so they were quickly forces to sell down assets and taking losses – this caused prices of property to fall, so the valuation on their assets started to go down This made it worse - These losses make their ratios look worse – making these companies need to deleverage further – this can lead into a downwards spiral On top of this – because the prices of property started to slow as well last year – to make more pre-sales – Evergrande needed to offer some discounts on the pre-sales – this lead to less liquidity available – less liquidity meant they don't have the money to fund debt repayments as they come due Evergrande itself – In the property sector – the company acts like a conglomerate Property development, property management, and Wealth management products – They are looking to sell of property management – recoup $5bn But wealth management products – WMPs may be a concern – this is around $6bn – Small number – but investor fury has made this more of a social issue But these investors were told they would get a guaranteed 12% return on their investment p.a. This money was used to help close funding caps that the parent company had in construction – This is fine, as long as the returns on the property sales in the year are more than 12% to repay investors - But for a time they weren't – this meant that new investor flows had to be used to make repayments to existing investors – in the process there was less to help close the funding gap – But then add onto this the slump in sales – then you start to have a real issue – as more and more new investor flows need to be used to repay existing investors – which is the basis of a ponzi scheme – but moral hazard still existed – investors had the certainty in their own minds that this was a sure bet – as any defaults would be covered by the government The issue is based around the moral hazard – investors thought their returns were guaranteed with little risk - but where it can get bad is contagion risks Fallout effects – will come from two areas – property domestically in China – which will spread out and have their own issues – as well as contagion risks throughout the economy and throughout the world Property prices in China – Can see a decline – if they liquidate and need to sell off the property development – could see a fire sale of assets and property prices decline The fact they are trying to sell quick is bad for property – fire sales see massive price reductions Domestic fallout – People who have placed deposits on properties that may never be built – lose those funds People who have invested in the WMPs – will also lose money – you will start to see some social issues This will reduce the trust in property investment – Evergrande employs lots of people – around 4m – which would be huge for a country like Australia – but out of a population over around 1.4bn is about 0.29% of the population Contagion risks – who owns the debt and are there any derivatives on this? Look at the debt - $300bn of debt – bonds issued – estimated that only around $20bn of this is overseas debts – the rest is domestic – these foreign bonds are priced in at around 25-30c on the dollar – depending on their maturity China is a large economy – it can pretty easily soak up these losses – even though $300bn is a large amount of debt to cover This is owned across 128 banks and 121 non-bank institutions Investment managers – investing in risky emerging market debts - Ashmore group, BlackRock Inc, UBS and HSBC hold $450m, $400m, $300m, and $200m, respectively – which isn't too much for these groups to absorb Best case scenario – Evergrande will be allowed to collapse – the parts will be bought up by other developers in the nation at a fire sale rate – i.e. getting a good discount The People Bank of China will also likely buy out some of the debt - Like JP Morgan Buying Bear Stern back in the GFC – with help and oversight from the FED – but this doesn't solve all the problems But the issue comes back to the moral hazard – the CCP wants to minimise speculative risks Evergrande by itself defaulting isn't a risk for markets – but it does spell some risks – of over leverage throughout the system – if many other developers start to see the same systemic issues of overleverage and issues in meeting their debt obligations, then you get into further trouble Fantasia – another property developer failed to make a bond payment - missed $315 million in payments to lenders – created further fears that financial strains in the country's outsized property sector are spreading beyond the troubled Evergrande conglomerate. S&P and Moody's slapped "default" credit ratings on Fantasia Lessons to be learnt – The moral hazard and the belief in a sure thing – the belief before the GFC is that debt on peoples homes was a sure thing – not many people would default all at once, so package up 1000s of mortgage holders debt and make bets on this But due to this belief, lax lending standards were employed – this then turned out that due to the belief that things couldn't go bad, resulted in them going bad due to too much risk How this is different from the GFC – Derivative used in making bets on the property market Credit swaps, derivatives on CDO – this doesn't seem to be occurring in China – and the banks' ability to eat losses on the debt isn't too great to not be able to recover Lehman's collapse was considered to be the plug of the dam being pulled in the GFC – property prices dropped, people defaulted on debt then Lehman went into default – but only due to their exposure to complex CDOs and derivative positions – If these don't exist on Evergrande – which it appears at this stage they don't – then there is less contagion risk – But who knows – there is no way to tell until it is too late – however, there hasn't been much in the way of transaction in credit default swaps in banks like HSBC which have greater exposure to the Chinese debt markets It took Lehman over a year to default and go bankrupt – so time will tell how this pays out Where things could get worse – is if more developers start to default – showing greater systemic risks My gut feel is that the China growth from property is coming to an end – This will likely have larger effects on the commodity markets – such as iron ore – than it will on the global share market in the short term – but if their property market starts to decline due to defaults on developers and a lack of trust – this leaves their economy very susceptible Your guess is as good as mine as how this will turn out – we will keep an eye on this Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/
How is the economy going to change now that we're in the fourth quarter of 2021? Is it still going to be like the last 3 quarters or not? How will it impact our economy in 2022 and the coming few years? There has been a lot of uncertainty in how things are happening, which is leading to market volatility. In this episode of the Secure Your Retirement podcast, we have Andrew Opdyke, a Certified Financial Advisor, Economist at First Trust Advisor. Listen in to learn how the current state after COVID is impacting our economy, inflation, and unemployment. In this episode, find out: · Reflecting on the first and second quarter of the year and how the third and fourth look like. · How housing consumption and rent prices impact inflation. · The likelihood of reacceleration in inflation numbers in the coming years. · Andrew compares 2021 to 2013 and why uncertainty in different areas will cause market volatility. · Why the employment healing is going to take the market a few years to recover. · The minimal impact of the Chinese fund Evergrande on the US economy and S&P companies. · Why US partisan politics are likely going to be the next volatility. · Why Andrew is excited about the impact of the potential innovation in the US. Tweetable Quotes: · “Uncertainty, in general, is the key driver of volatility in the market.”- Andrew Opdyke · “As we move through the fourth quarter and the beginning of next year, we could see reacceleration on the inflation numbers.”- Andrew Opdyke Get in Touch with Andrew: · LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewopdyke/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewopdyke/) Resources: If you are in or nearing retirement and you want to gain clarity on what questions you should be asking, learn what the biggest retirement myths are, and identify what you can do to achieve peace of mind for your retirement, get started today by requesting our complimentary video course, Four Steps to Secure Your Retirement! To access the course, simply visit https://pomwealth.net/3-keys-to-secure-your-retirementlp/ (POMWealth.net/podcast.)
Evergrande ist bei weitem nicht der einzige chinesische Konzern in finanzieller Schieflage. Aber ähnlich wie 2008 in den USA scheinen insbesondere die Immobilienentwickler und deren Finanziers auf ungebremstes Wachstum und einen anhaltenden Immobilien-Boom gesetzt zu haben. Warum müssen sich jetzt hunderttausende Käufer von Eigentumswohnungen sorgen um die Fertigstellung machen und sind die eigentlichen Probleme noch viel größer? Etwas strengere staatliche Regeln, weniger leichte Kreditvergaben, höhere Zinsen und schon kleinste Dellen in der Kundennachfrage können ein zum permanenten Wachstum verdammtes Schneeballsystem schnell an die Wand fahren. Nicht bediente Kreditraten von 200 Millionen Dollar scheinen ja -angesichts der Verbindlichkeiten von über 300 Milliarden Dollar im Falle Evergrande- eher gering. Aber die Folgen sind schon jetzt immens. Schlechtere Ratings und damit höhere Zinsen. Ein Absturz an der Börse. Und diese Ankündigungen bestätigen, was man auf den Baustellen Chinas schon länger sehen konnte: Das Immobilien-Business ist ins Stocken geraten und die Wohnungskäufer machen sich wohl zu Recht Sorgen.
Dr Gennadi Kazakevitch from Monash University talks about the main economic events of the past week in Australia and the world. - Профессор экономического факультета университета Монаша, доктор Геннадий Казакевич, рассказывает о важных экономических событиях и тенденциях в Австралии и мире.
Economics is a social science. While science is knowledge and application of existing aspects of the world and applications through physical laws, mathematics and research, social sciences deal with society and human behaviors. Certainly there is plenty of math involved in economics but the math is predictive insofar as the behavior is predicted correctly. That […] The post 285: Chinese Evergrande and the state of the Global Economy! appeared first on Wealth Formula.
An increased risk-off sentiment, resulting from the Evergrande drama - among several other factors, has perhaps increased the likelihood, as well as accelerated the timeline, of a CNY devaluation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.----------WHO----------Maroon Macro, an anonymous global macro hedge fund analyst who is partial to the University of Chicago and writes about the mechanics of the monetary system, financial plumbing, and economic history. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.----------WHAT----------Issue #21: Trade Idea – Short CNH: https://bit.ly/3op5bMQ----------WHERE----------Maroon's Substack: https://maroonmacro.substack.com/Maroon's Twitter: https://twitter.com/maroon_macroEmil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiDavid's Art: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
On the heels of Evergrande's debt crisis, there are increasing signs of stress in China's real estate market after Fantasia Holdings failed to make a bond payment.Fantasia Holdings, a Chinese developer of luxury apartments missed $315 million in payments to lenders on Monday, sparking fears that financial strains in the country's outsized property sector are spreading beyond the troubled Evergrande conglomerate.Fantasia Holdings, a Shenzhen-based developer, missed repaying $206 million worth of bonds that matured Monday, the company said in a stock exchange filing. It is now assessing "the potential impact on the financial condition and cash position of the group," it added.Separately, the property management unit of Country Garden, China's second largest developer by sales after Evergrande, said in a filing that Fantasia had failed to repay a company loan of about 700 million yuan ($109 million). Fantasia had informed the company that it would probably "default on [its] external debts," Country Garden Services added.S&P and Moody's slapped "default" credit ratings on Fantasia and said the non-payment of principal would likely also put the company in default on its remaining bonds.The downgrade follows Fantasia's announcement that it had missed payment on its $205.7 million bond due on the same day, and reflects the weak recovery prospects for Fantasia's bondholders after its default.Evergrande & The Chinese Economy Video https://youtu.be/rQ0t964s-8QPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle On Finance Youtube Channel Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)
In today's show, you will learn why the Fed could make a major policy mistake by tapering its balance sheet, why this month's payroll report was mediocre, how Quantitative Easing affects the labor market, why banks are buying bonds, how the bond market is pricing in a debt default in December, and why Evergrande is back in the news. #economy #stockmarket #business #china #news #breakingnews #stocks #bonds #money #bank #Evergrande Portfolio Shield™ https://stevenvanmetre.com/portfolio-shield/ Website http://stevenvanmetre.com/ Social Media https://twitter.com/MetreSteven https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-van-metre-b4a08b182/ https://www.facebook.com/svmfin/ Portfolio Shield™ and Momentum Timer Pro™ are unregistered trademarks of Steven Van Metre Financial. Watermark Artwork by Jasmine Miller Twitter: @jazcreative The content of this video is provided as educational information only and is not intended to provide investment or other advice. This material is not to be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, financial product, instrument, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This video was prepared by Steven Van Metre in my own personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this video are my own and do not reflect the view of Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. or Steven Van Metre Financial.
China's massive real estate market has been shaken by recent news of property developer China Evergrande Group's increasingly dire financial situation. What explains the company's predicament, and how has the Chinese government responded? How did giant conglomerates such as Evergrande become so prominent in the Chinese economy? What is the significance of real estate for individual households and China's economy as a whole, and what does the government handling of Evergrande reveal about the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party and big business? In an interview conducted on October 5, 2021, Meg Rithmire analyzes the domestic and global economic and political implications of the troubles facing real estate giant China Evergrande Group in conversation with Keith Abell.
On this Washington Roundtable episode of the Defense & Aerospace Report Podcast, sponsored by Bell, our guests are Dov Zakheim, PhD, former DoD comptroller, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Michael Herson, President and CEO, American Defense International, Dr Gordon Adams, the senior White House budget official for national security during the Clinton administration who is now a distinguished fellow at the Quincy Institute and the Stimson Center as well as an American University professor emeritus, and Dr. Patrick Cronin of the Hudson Institute. Topics: — Update on NDAA and appropriations, increased borrowing limit that will forestall debt default until after Dec. 3, and slimmed down Democratic spending — Beijing's increasingly larger formations of aircraft that are testing Taiwanese air defenses — Risks of the new strategy as scores of Chinese fighter, bombers and patrol aircraft operate near Taiwan — Outlook for Chinese economy as Evergrande and other institutions suffer setbacks — Prospects that Beijing, sensing decline, will move against Taiwan sooner than later — Whether a shift in US policy toward Taiwan would improve deterrence or undermine it — Bombing of Shiite mosque in Afghanistan that killed 48 — USS Connecticut's mystery collision in the South China Sea that injured 11 aboard the Seawolf-class attack sub
Markets have become a lot more volatile recently, violently lurching up and down, and are off nearly 5% from their all-time highs as of a month ago. A growing number of analysts are concerned that this is the start of a larger correction. This year's spike in inflation is proving a lot less transitory that the Fed expected. Supply chains remain badly disrupted. Economic growth is slowing, particularly in Asia where the failures of massive firms like Evergrande threaten to destabilize things further. Energy shocks are suddenly happening all over the world. It's understandable that more and more people are now asking: Is the bull market over? Is a market correction imminent? No - says today's guest expert David Hunter. Or more accurately -- not yet. David is Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors. He expects a further final melt-up in the markets from here....to be swiftly followed by a truly massive market crash of up to 80%. We've been closely following David's aggressive market predictions this year, as they've so far mostly proven eerily accurate. So we're very fortunate to have him back on the program to give us the latest update on his current outlook. See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/Dk6G0nPioLs
With Rektember now in the rear-view mirror, Rocktober has started with a bang. This bang could mark the beginning of an EXPLOSIVE crypto Q4. This is the time when we tend to see the biggest gains in the shortest period. We've seen some pretty serious FUD in recent weeks: the China ban, Evergrande, the Infrastructure Bill, not to mention a stock market that could be running out of steam. All this FUD has done almost nothing to slow down Bitcoin's momentum. What will crypto do next? Today, we'll talk about what positive crypto news could look like in the months ahead. There are still trillions of dollars waiting on the sidelines, poised and ready to take a piece of the pie. What are they waiting for? Well, let's call them Bull Run Super Chargers. I'm talking about the kind of breaking stories with the potential to send the crypto markets into a full-blown frenzy.
Neste podcast: Qual é o tamanho do problema? Um papo sobre a crise de uma das maiores empresas do setor de construção civil residencial da China, a Evergrande. Vamos entender o contexto, as previsões e qual o impacto que pode gerar na economia mundial. ARTE DA VITRINE: Randall Random NOVA FUTURA Link para abertura de conta com o Jovem Nerd: https://bit.ly/3q1me4C Site da nova Futura: http://bit.ly/2Lor4oL Youtube: http://bit.ly/2LsKUzk Instagram: http://bit.ly/2sBKbod Facebook: http://bit.ly/2JehoQV Twitter: http://bit.ly/2qBKDlj OUÇA TAMBÉM Playlist completa NerdCash: https://bit.ly/2Ndl5s7 Ouça também NerdCash 39 - As inevitáveis crises financeiras mundiais E-MAILS Mande suas críticas, elogios, sugestões e caneladas para firstname.lastname@example.org EDIÇÃO COMPLETA POR RADIOFOBIA PODCAST E MULTIMÍDIA http://radiofobia.com.br
The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster than Beijing expected, putting pressure on regulators to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergrande's creditors without also undermining their fight against bad debt. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.----------WHO----------Michael Pettis, Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound.----------WHAT----------What Does Evergrande Meltdown Mean for China?: https://bit.ly/2Ya9rVl----------WHERE----------Michael's Blog: https://www.mpettis.com/Michael's Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelxpettisEmil's Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiDavid's Art: https://davidparkins.com/---------HEAR IT----------Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr
For decades China's economic growth has been the envy of the western world. But current signs suggest all is not well. Regulations brought in by government to curb businesses reliance on debt have badly hit the its second largest real estate developer, Evergrande and manufacturing output has been hit by power shortages. So is China's economy in trouble? Experts: Sara Hsu, visiting scholar at Fudan University in Shanghai Michael Pettis, Finance Professor at Peking University and a Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment Iris Pang, ING's Chief Economist for Greater China Travis Lundy, independent research analyst in Hong Kong Presenter: Charmaine Cozier Researcher: Chris Blake Production Co-ordinator: Jacqui Johnson Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill Producer: Ben Carter Editor: Richard Vadon (Image: People commute in front of the under-construction Guangzhou Evergrande football stadium in Guangzhou, China's southern Guangdong province on September 17, 2021. (Photo by NOEL CELIS/AFP via Getty Images)
DB-Oct06,2021: With stocks rocking back and forth, crypto exploding, the ADP jobs report revealing a positive surprise, and natural gas gyrating up and down, this week's price action thus far has been very volatile. Darius Dale of 42 Macro returns to Daily Briefing to dig more into his macro framework and how he's thinking about inflation lately, and Jack Farley provides a quick update on the Evergrande crisis. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uQdGlo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Photo: Evergrande Evergrande losers and worse. Fraser Howie, co-author Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise. @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/04/shares-in-china-property-giant-evergrande-suspended-after-debt-payments-missed
In episode 357, we welcome our guest, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at the Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm, where he leads the firm's Strategy Team, providing bespoke research on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. In today's episode, we're talking geopolitics and the markets. Marko recently released the book Geopolitical Alpha and he shares his framework for understanding how geopolitical events will affect the markets. Then we talk current events and how he views them. We talk about the implications of Evergrande and why Marko does not believe China will try to takeover Taiwan. Next we talk about the implications of rising food and commodity prices and whether that will cause social unrest around the globe. As we wind down, we talk about the ESG and sustainability trend and finish by hearing what Marko thinks about inflation, interest rates and the U.S. stock market. Please enjoy this episode with Clocktower Group's Marko Papic. ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Today's episode is sponsored by FarmTogether. FarmTogether is a technology-powered investment platform that enables investors to channel funding into natural assets, starting with U.S. farmland. By driving abundant and creative capital to farmers, we're giving investors the opportunity to drive agriculture toward sustainability on a massive scale. Alongside a changing climate, the global population continues to grow, with expectations of reaching 9.7 billion by 2050. This means approximately 70% more food will be required than is consumed today. FarmTogether investors are providing the key financial building blocks for a sustainable future.
From the BBC World Service: Cracks are somewhat deepening in China’s construction sector, beyond the financial problems facing the Evergrande conglomerate. Plus, England is set to ban so-called “essay mills” which offer essay writing to students for a fee. And, Marrakesh in Morocco is finding new ways to draw tourists back and regain its crown as Africa’s most popular tourist city.
From the BBC World Service: Cracks are somewhat deepening in China’s construction sector, beyond the financial problems facing the Evergrande conglomerate. Plus, England is set to ban so-called “essay mills” which offer essay writing to students for a fee. And, Marrakesh in Morocco is finding new ways to draw tourists back and regain its crown as Africa’s most popular tourist city.
You might be wondering how the Evergrande debacle in China happened. I've been to China and observed first hand how commercial construction is broadly undertaken. Once you understand what I have seen first hand, it's little surprise that there are issues. ---------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: email@example.com
Joe Hoft is the twin brother of TGP's founder, Jim Hoft, a contributing editor, author and currently the co-host of the morning radio show in St. Louis at 93.3 "Tomorrow's News Today." We discuss getting involved with TGP in 2016, living in Hong Kong, Hunter Biden's laptop, if the collapse of Afghanistan was done intentionally to pay back China, the continuing saga of Evergrande, and China planting the virus, doing nationwide power cuts, and reducing manufacturing to hide their economic collapse.
Oct 5 – Gavekal Research's Louis Gave joins FS Insider today to discuss his thoughts on China, Evergrande, energy shortages, and how he believes we are moving into an extended 'age of shortages' and... Subscribe to our premium weekday podcasts: https://www.financialsense.com/subscribe