Podcast appearances and mentions of Greg Powell

Bonds Continue to Demonstrate Their Value While much of the attention has centered on stocks, the bond market has quietly delivered strong performance over the past two years. Bonds remain an important component of diversified portfolios because they help reduce risk, generate income, and provide stability during periods of market uncertainty. Since October 19, 2023, the total returns across the 11 major bond indices have been notably strong. That date marked the recent peak in the 10-year Treasury yield, which closed at 4.99%. Since then, Treasury yields have fluctuated significantly, falling to 3.62% in September 2024 before climbing back to approximately 4.5% in July 2026. Even with those fluctuations, today’s yield remains below the 2023 peak. Because bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of yields, declining benchmark yields have supported positive returns across much of the fixed income market. Several bond sectors have produced returns exceeding 20% during this period. Looking ahead, inflation and Federal Reserve policy will continue to play an important role in bond performance. Monitoring these factors will help determine how bonds continue to support clients’ long-term investment strategies. Inflation Shows Encouraging Signs of Normalization The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report provided an encouraging surprise. Monthly CPI declined by 0.4%, meaning prices actually fell during the month. This is significant because inflation discussions often focus on prices increasing at a slower rate rather than prices declining outright. Typically, inflation “coming down” simply means prices are still rising, but at a slower pace. This latest report was different. Consumers experienced actual price declines, something not seen on a monthly basis since the COVID era and a relatively rare occurrence over the past decade. Much of the decline was driven by lower gasoline prices following easing energy markets after geopolitical tensions earlier in the summer. Although oil prices have recently moved higher again, they remain well below previous peaks, suggesting that the recent decline may represent what a more normalized energy environment could look like. Perhaps even more encouraging was the strength of consumer spending. Retail sales increased by 0.22% during the same month that prices declined. When adjusted for lower inflation, consumers effectively purchased approximately 0.62% more goods and services than the previous month. This is an important distinction. During periods of rising energy prices, households often spend more filling their gas tanks while reducing purchases elsewhere, a phenomenon economists call demand destruction. Instead, the latest data indicates consumers continued spending across the broader economy while benefiting from lower prices. Although one report does not establish a long-term trend, the combination of falling prices and healthy consumer demand offers a positive glimpse into how the economy could perform as inflation continues to moderate. The outlook remains favorable for consumers, financial markets, and interest rates if this broader normalization continues. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Feeling Richer? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Interest Rates Remain the Market’s Focus Interest rates continue to be one of the most important indicators for investors because of their broad impact on the economy. The 10-year Treasury yield influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and overall financial conditions, making it a key measure to watch. After easing briefly, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back above 4.5%, reflecting renewed concerns following escalating conflict in the Middle East. Rising interest rates can signal worries about government debt issuance while also increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This week’s inflation reports will play an important role in determining where interest rates may head next. Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide insight into inflation trends and price pressures. With oil prices having declined recently, expectations are building that the CPI could show not only slower inflation but potentially a negative monthly reading. If that occurs, it would represent a meaningful shift in the inflation outlook. Markets will also be closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh as he delivers his required testimony before Congress. Since taking office, Warsh has largely avoided signaling future monetary policy, preferring to let the Federal Reserve’s actions speak for themselves. His remarks before lawmakers may offer investors valuable insight into the Fed’s current thinking and could have a significant impact on interest rate expectations. Because interest rates influence borrowing, spending, business investment, and equity valuations, developments this week have the potential to affect markets well beyond the bond market alone. Earnings Season Takes the Spotlight While geopolitical events continue to create uncertainty, corporate earnings remain one of the strongest drivers of long-term stock market performance. As earnings season begins, investors will gain a clearer picture of how American businesses are performing in today’s economic environment. Current estimates for the S&P 500 remain encouraging. Analysts project earnings growth of approximately 25% in 2026 and 17.4% in 2027. Even more notably, seven of the index’s eleven sectors are expected to generate earnings growth exceeding 10% in 2026. Revenue growth projections also remain positive, with estimates of 10.4% for 2026 and 7.6% for 2027. These forecasts suggest that companies continue to improve profitability through a combination of stronger sales and increased operational efficiency. Although estimates will ultimately be tested against actual results, improving corporate earnings have historically supported higher equity prices. In an environment where investors remain focused on inflation, interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy, strong earnings growth could provide an important catalyst for continued market strength. As the week unfolds, investors will be watching inflation reports, Federal Reserve commentary, and early earnings announcements closely. Together, these developments will help shape expectations for the economy, interest rates, and the direction of financial markets in the months ahead. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post A Week Worth Watching first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Employment Remains on Solid Ground Employment continues to be one of the most important indicators for both the economy and the stock market. A healthy labor market means more people are earning income, saving, investing, and contributing to overall economic growth. Those factors typically create greater demand for investment assets and provide support for stock prices. Conversely, rising unemployment often leads consumers to spend savings rather than invest, placing pressure on financial markets. The Federal Reserve closely monitors employment data when making interest rate decisions, making each monthly jobs report an important release for investors. However, it’s important to understand that the headline jobs report is based largely on surveys, making it what economists refer to as “soft data.” Because it relies on estimates from survey respondents rather than complete reporting, the data is often revised in subsequent months. The latest report was encouraging overall. More jobs were created than lost, the unemployment rate declined, and wage growth remained healthy at 3.5% year over year. While average hours worked declined slightly, rising wages combined with fewer hours worked still represents a positive development for workers. One surprising detail within the report was a decline in leisure and hospitality employment. Given the increased tourism and temporary hiring associated with the World Cup, many economists believe this portion of the report may ultimately be revised higher. To gain a clearer picture of labor market conditions, it helps to compare the survey-based data with “hard data,” such as initial unemployment claims. Unlike survey estimates, unemployment claims are based on actual filings submitted through state unemployment offices and are generally considered more reliable. Initial jobless claims have remained relatively stable throughout the year, while continuing unemployment claims have gradually declined. Together, these indicators reinforce the view that the labor market remains stable, not overheating, but not weakening either. A stable employment environment supports continued wage growth, consumer spending, savings, and investment activity. Those trends create a constructive backdrop for financial markets heading into the second half of the year. Corporate Earnings Will Drive the Next Phase of the Market Strong corporate earnings have been one of the primary drivers behind the stock market’s performance this year, and they are expected to remain a major theme throughout the remainder of the year. Corporate America has consistently exceeded expectations, helping fuel market gains. As a result, analysts have steadily raised earnings forecasts throughout the year. Earnings per share (EPS), a measure of how much profit a company generates for each outstanding share of stock, has seen meaningful upward revisions after remaining relatively flat throughout much of 2025. While this reflects confidence in the strength of American businesses, it also raises the bar. Investors will be watching closely to see whether companies can continue delivering results that justify today’s elevated expectations. Another important metric to monitor is operating margins. Markets are currently pricing in record profit margins over the coming year. If companies continue operating efficiently while maintaining strong profitability, stocks could continue benefiting from solid earnings growth. However, if expectations prove too optimistic, investors should be prepared for periods of increased market volatility. With midterm election uncertainty also entering the picture, earnings season will likely play an even larger role in determining market direction during the second half of the year. Why Gas Prices Haven’t Fallen as Fast as Oil Prices Although oil prices have retreated following the recent conflict in the Middle East, many drivers have noticed that gasoline prices have not fallen nearly as quickly. The explanation lies in how gasoline is produced, distributed, and taxed. The United States consumes more than 130 billion gallons of gasoline each year—more than any other country in the world. While crude oil prices rose sharply during the conflict and have since moved lower, retail gasoline prices typically respond more slowly. Gasoline is a refined petroleum product, meaning the cost of crude oil represents only one portion of the final price consumers pay at the pump. Refining costs, transportation expenses, distribution, and taxes all contribute to the total cost per gallon. As crude oil prices climbed, gasoline prices gradually followed. Now that crude prices have declined to levels closer to where they were earlier this year, gasoline prices are expected to follow, but historically, they tend to lag. Assuming geopolitical tensions do not escalate again, motorists could begin seeing more relief as the summer progresses and into the fall. Regional price differences also illustrate how much additional costs affect gasoline prices. States throughout the South and Midwest generally enjoy some of the nation’s lowest gasoline prices due to their proximity to Gulf Coast refineries. Meanwhile, states such as California, Washington, Hawaii, Nevada, and Oregon typically experience significantly higher prices. While crude oil costs are essentially the same nationwide, higher state taxes, increased transportation expenses, and greater distribution costs contribute to substantially higher prices at the pump. In Hawaii, for example, distribution costs alone exceed the cost of refining the gasoline. Understanding these components helps explain why gasoline prices often remain elevated even after oil prices begin to fall. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Reports Are In first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Employment Remains a Key Market Driver Although the week is shortened by the holiday, one of the most important economic reports of the month arrives before the weekend. The latest payroll report provides an updated snapshot of the labor market, one of the Federal Reserve’s primary measures of economic health. Because the Fed’s dual mandate is to promote maximum employment while maintaining stable inflation, employment data plays a significant role in shaping monetary policy decisions. Recent jobs reports have been stronger than many expected, making this week’s release especially important as investors look for signs that labor market strength is either continuing or beginning to fade. Employment trends also have a direct impact on the stock market. A healthy labor market supports wage growth, consumer spending, retirement contributions, and overall investment activity, all of which help create a favorable environment for stocks. Conversely, rising unemployment can reduce savings and investment while slowing economic growth. Investors will also be paying close attention to wage growth, as continued increases could indicate that the economy remains resilient even as inflation shows signs of easing. Dividend Growth Has Historically Outpaced Inflation Inflation remains one of the biggest concerns for investors, creating uncertainty around interest rates and future market performance. While inflation reduces purchasing power over time, dividend-paying stocks have historically provided one of the most effective ways to combat its long-term effects. In fact, dividends have accounted for approximately 37.2% of the S&P 500’s total return since 1928, highlighting their significant contribution to long-term investment performance. The relationship between dividends and inflation becomes even more compelling over longer periods. From the end of 1979 through the end of last year, dividends paid per share by companies in the S&P 500 increased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.88%, while inflation averaged 3.19% annually. This sustained growth has allowed dividend income to outpace inflation over time, helping investors preserve purchasing power while generating meaningful long-term returns. History Points to a Seasonal Summer Slowdown Seasonality also provides valuable context as markets move into the second half of the year. Historically, the period from late June through August tends to be one of the quieter stretches for stocks. Trading volumes often decline as investors take vacations and corporate news slows, creating what is commonly known as the “dog days of summer.” During this period, markets have historically shown relatively little separation between stronger and weaker years. That pattern typically begins to change after Labor Day. Historical data shows that markets with positive first-half performance have often continued that momentum through year-end, while markets that struggled during the first six months have frequently remained under pressure. With the market currently in the stronger historical category, the seasonal outlook remains encouraging. While history never guarantees future results, these long-term trends provide useful perspective as investors prepare for the months ahead. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Market Fireworks first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Earnings Continue to Lead the Way June is traditionally known as wedding season, and in many ways the market’s relationship with the Federal Reserve feels a bit like a honeymoon period. A new Federal Reserve Chairman has taken the helm, corporate earnings remain strong, and investors continue to push markets higher despite several reasons for caution. As the second half of 2026 approaches, the question becomes whether this favorable environment can continue or whether the market will soon face its first meaningful test under new leadership at the Federal Reserve. One of the more surprising developments this year has been the resilience of the stock market during a midterm election cycle. Historically, volatility tends to increase as midterm elections draw closer, often creating periods of uncertainty for investors. Yet 2026 has largely defied that pattern. The S&P 500 has continued to outperform historical midterm-year averages, supported by strong corporate earnings and ongoing investment in artificial intelligence. Corporate America has delivered results that have largely justified higher equity valuations. Earnings growth has remained healthy, investor confidence has held firm, and market momentum has continued despite concerns surrounding inflation, interest rates, and the political landscape. For now, earnings remain the dominant story. While markets have focused on earnings, political developments are beginning to move into view. Historically, markets have often performed best when political power is divided in Washington. As attention gradually shifts toward the November midterm elections, investors will be watching closely to see whether election outcomes alter expectations for fiscal policy, regulation, or economic growth. Election years often introduce additional uncertainty into the market, but they can also create opportunities for investors who remain focused on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term headlines. A New Direction at the Federal Reserve The first meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh offered an early glimpse into what may become a significantly different approach to monetary policy communication. Rather than lengthy statements designed to guide market expectations, the new chairman signaled a preference for brevity and restraint. The philosophy appears straightforward: markets should inform Federal Reserve policy decisions, not the other way around. That approach stands in contrast to the communication strategies that became common following the financial crisis, when Federal Reserve officials frequently used detailed guidance to calm markets and shape expectations. Today’s environment is far different. Economic growth remains intact, unemployment remains relatively healthy, and while inflation remains above ideal levels, it has shown signs of moderation. Warsh has also taken a measured approach to institutional change. Rather than immediately implementing major reforms, the Federal Reserve has begun reviewing several areas of operation through dedicated committees. Those reviews range from communication practices to broader questions surrounding balance sheet management. The process reflects an understanding that meaningful change within a century-old institution requires deliberation rather than disruption. While investors are eager to understand how the new chairman will shape policy, the early signs suggest a thoughtful and methodical approach rather than sweeping change. History reminds investors that honeymoon periods rarely last forever. Few Federal Reserve Chairmen understood that reality better than Alan Greenspan, whose passing this week marks the end of a remarkable chapter in financial history. Greenspan assumed leadership of the Federal Reserve in 1987 and within months faced one of the most significant market crashes in modern history. The lesson is not that turmoil is imminent, but rather that markets often determine when periods of calm come to an end. The challenges facing today’s Federal Reserve are different, but the principle remains the same: economic conditions, market sentiment, and unexpected events often shape the environment more than any single policymaker can control. Today, favorable earnings, improving inflation trends, and steady economic conditions have provided the new Federal Reserve Chairman with an advantageous starting point. Yet challenges remain. Inflation has not fully disappeared, election uncertainty is approaching, and markets continue to navigate an environment shaped by rapidly evolving technology, global economic shifts, and changing monetary policy. For now, the honeymoon continues. Whether it lasts through year-end may depend less on the Federal Reserve itself and more on how investors respond to the economic and political developments that lie ahead. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Honeymoon with the Fed first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

A Critical Week for Global Markets and the Federal Reserve Markets entered the week focused on two major developments: ongoing diplomatic discussions involving the United States and Iran, and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. Reports of progress toward a potential agreement between the United States and Iran have been welcomed by investors. News of a possible deal helped push oil prices lower and contributed to a positive response in equity markets. However, uncertainty remains, and investors should exercise caution until details are finalized and the broader implications become clearer. The decline in oil prices has also influenced interest rates, which moved lower as markets assessed the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions. While investors have responded favorably, recent history serves as a reminder that negotiations can shift quickly, and outcomes are never guaranteed until agreements are officially completed. Domestically, attention is centered on the Federal Reserve’s meeting under the leadership of Chairman Kevin Warsh. This marks his first meeting and press conference as Fed Chair, creating significant interest around how he intends to communicate monetary policy moving forward. Warsh has previously expressed concerns about excessive forward guidance, arguing that central banks should avoid becoming overly committed to future projections. Instead, he has advocated for a greater emphasis on current economic data when making policy decisions. Investors will be watching closely to see whether he introduces a more restrained communication style or gradually transitions the Fed toward a quieter approach. Another area of focus will be the relationship between the chairman and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While the chair plays an influential role, policy decisions are made collectively. Any signs of disagreement among committee members could offer valuable insight into future policy direction. With employment remaining strong and inflation continuing to present challenges, the Federal Reserve’s comments on inflation trends, geopolitical developments, and economic growth will be particularly important for markets. Inflation Remains a Key Concern Inflation remains one of the most closely watched economic indicators, and recent data suggests price pressures continue to persist. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in at 4.2%, higher than many economists had anticipated. While energy prices, particularly oil, have likely contributed to the increase, inflation remains elevated relative to the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Beyond the traditional CPI measure, another useful perspective comes from what Strategas Research Partners refers to as the “Common Man CPI.” This proprietary measure focuses specifically on essential household expenses, including food, energy, shelter, insurance, and children’s clothing. By emphasizing necessities rather than the broader basket of goods used in traditional inflation calculations, it attempts to better reflect the inflation experienced by everyday consumers. According to this measure, inflation currently stands at 4.6%, noticeably higher than the headline CPI reading. Since mid-2020, prices within the Common Man CPI have increased approximately 32%, compared to roughly 30% for headline CPI. The challenge for consumers is that wage growth has not fully kept pace. While wages have risen approximately 27.5% over the same period, inflation has exceeded those gains, creating ongoing pressure on household budgets. As policymakers evaluate future interest rate decisions, an important question remains: Are current inflation pressures temporary, particularly those tied to energy prices, or do they represent a more persistent trend? The answer will play a significant role in shaping future Federal Reserve actions. CEO Confidence and Consumer Strength Support the Outlook While inflation and global uncertainty remain concerns, several indicators continue to point toward resilience within the broader economy. One closely monitored measure is CEO confidence, which has improved in recent weeks. This indicator reflects how corporate leaders view economic conditions over the next 12 months and can provide valuable insight into future business investment and hiring decisions. Higher CEO confidence often translates into increased capital spending, stronger workforce expansion, and improved earnings expectations. Since corporate earnings remain one of the primary drivers of stock market performance, rising confidence among business leaders is generally viewed as a positive signal for future growth. Consumer spending has also remained remarkably strong despite elevated inflation. Consumers continue to play a critical role in supporting economic growth, and spending trends have remained resilient even as households navigate higher prices. Taken together, improving CEO confidence and continued consumer strength provides a constructive backdrop for both the economy and financial markets as the year progresses. Investors should continue monitoring developments in the Middle East, Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation trends, business confidence, and consumer spending. Each of these factors has the potential to influence markets in the months ahead, making it important to stay informed and maintain a long-term perspective amid ongoing uncertainty. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Deal or No Deal? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Market Strength Remains Concentrated One of the most important developments in the market this year has been the concentration of returns within a relatively small portion of the S&P 500. An analysis of sector performance reveals that technology stocks have once again emerged as the primary driver of market gains over the past several weeks, reestablishing themselves as the market’s leadership group. Technology now represents approximately 39% of the S&P 500, making its performance increasingly important to the overall direction of the index. As a result, investors should pay close attention to valuations and earnings growth within the sector, as weakness in technology could have an outsized impact on broader market returns. Last fall provided an encouraging example of market resilience, as other sectors stepped in to offset periods of weakness among technology companies. Whether that dynamic can repeat itself remains an important question for the remainder of the year. The growing influence of technology is largely tied to a handful of exceptionally profitable companies. The so-called “Magnificent Seven” now account for more than one-third of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization and continue to generate earnings growth far above the rest of the market. In the first quarter, these companies delivered earnings growth of 63.2%, roughly four times the growth rate achieved by the other 493 companies within the index. Corporate profitability more broadly has also remained remarkably strong. During the first quarter, S&P 500 companies retained nearly 15 cents of profit for every dollar of revenue generated. According to available data, that represents the highest profit margin recorded since tracking began in 2009 and is more than double the long-term average dating back to 1946. These trends suggest that while market leadership remains narrow, the underlying earnings environment continues to provide meaningful support for equities. Going forward, monitoring sector performance and return dispersion across the market will be critical in identifying opportunities and determining whether portfolio adjustments become necessary. A New Federal Reserve Chair Takes the Stage While market fundamentals remain strong, investors are also preparing for a major leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh is set to assume the role of Federal Reserve Chair, and his first meeting leading the Federal Open Market Committee will take place next week. Historically, markets have paid close attention to the early actions of a new Fed Chair, often reacting with heightened volatility as investors assess potential changes in policy direction. Historical data shows that market performance following a new Chair’s first meeting has frequently been challenged. On average, the market has experienced modest declines during the first several weeks after the transition, reflecting investor uncertainty and the market’s tendency to test new leadership. While historical averages provide useful context, individual outcomes have varied significantly depending on economic conditions and market circumstances at the time. The Federal Reserve’s decisions are ultimately driven by incoming economic data, making recent employment figures particularly important. The May employment report came in substantially stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000 jobs compared to expectations of roughly 88,000. In addition, prior months’ payroll figures were revised higher, reversing a trend of downward revisions seen earlier in the year. Job growth remained broad-based across several sectors, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, and government employment. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains healthy. This strength in employment is significant because it directly relates to one half of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability. As Warsh begins his tenure, he will inherit an economy that continues to exhibit labor market resilience. The inflation outlook, however, remains less certain. Rising oil prices driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East have increased concerns about potential inflationary pressures. Future inflation data will likely play a major role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and influencing investor expectations for interest rates. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post The Fed's Influence on the Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Corporate Profitability Remains Exceptionally Strong With earnings season now complete, the latest results indicate that the fundamental backdrop for the equity market remains healthy. One of the most important measures of market strength is operating margin, which reflects how much profit a company generates from its core operations after covering production-related costs. Companies within the S&P 500 are currently reporting operating margins of approximately 20.3%, reaching record levels. These strong margins demonstrate that businesses continue to operate efficiently and maintain profitability despite ongoing concerns about inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty. The trend is even more encouraging when considering the potential impact of artificial intelligence and other productivity-enhancing technologies. As these innovations become more integrated into business operations, the benefits should increasingly be reflected in corporate profitability. Equal-weight operating margins, which provide a broader view of company performance across the market, are also approaching record highs. The continued improvement in margins suggests that productivity gains and operational efficiencies are beginning to spread across a wider range of companies. Rather than focusing solely on short-term uncertainties, investors appear to be recognizing the strength of corporate earnings and profit growth. Consumer Debt Headlines Miss the Bigger Picture Recent headlines have focused heavily on rising consumer debt, creating concern that Americans may be struggling financially. However, debt levels alone do not provide a complete picture of consumer health. A closer examination reveals that delinquency rates, the percentage of borrowers falling behind on payments, remain relatively low. Credit card delinquency rates have recently declined to approximately 2.92%, down from levels seen earlier in the year and well below the peaks experienced during the Global Financial Crisis. This distinction is important. Consumers may be carrying more debt, but the key question is whether they can manage and repay those obligations. Current data suggests that, for the most part, they can. Employment remains one of the primary reasons for this resilience. Despite widespread headlines about layoffs and technological disruption, initial jobless claims continue to stay near historically low levels. As long as consumers remain employed, they generally retain the ability to meet their financial obligations and continue spending. Consumer spending rose by 0.5% in April, even as wage growth remained relatively flat. While some of this spending may be supported by borrowing, tax refunds, or drawing down savings, these trends can remain sustainable for a period when supported by a growing economy, strong employment, and healthy corporate profits. The personal savings rate has declined, which bears watching, but the broader picture remains constructive. Moving forward, labor market data will continue to be one of the most important indicators for evaluating consumer strength and overall economic health. Is This Market Really a Bubble? One of the most common concerns among investors today is whether the current market environment resembles the technology bubble of the late 1990s. While certain similarities exist, a closer examination of the data reveals important differences. During the 1990s technology boom, stock prices rose dramatically despite relatively weak earnings growth. Much of the market’s return came from what is known as multiple expansion, where investors became willing to pay increasingly higher prices for each dollar of earnings based on expectations of future growth. In many cases, stock prices surged even as underlying earnings failed to keep pace. Between 1995 and 1999, the S&P 500 generated returns of approximately 220%, while earnings grew only about 67%. This disconnect between prices and profits was a defining characteristic of the technology bubble. Today’s market tells a different story. While some multiple expansion has occurred, earnings growth has been the primary driver of returns since the current bull market began in the second half of 2023. Corporate profits have continued to rise, helping justify much of the market’s advance. Although valuations remain elevated by historical standards, earnings growth has largely kept pace with stock price appreciation. In fact, strong earnings growth can make valuations appear more reasonable over time as companies generate greater profits to support higher stock prices. The relationship between earnings and market performance remains one of the most important indicators of long-term sustainability. Unlike previous bubble periods, current market gains are being supported by measurable improvements in corporate profitability. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Behind the Headlines first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Strong Earnings Continue to Support the Market Markets continue to navigate a range of macroeconomic concerns, including rising gas prices and ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Investors are also closely watching the Federal Reserve, as higher yields and interest rates remain a key topic of discussion. Despite these external pressures, one area of the economy continues to stand out: the strength of corporate America. First-quarter earnings season has delivered exceptionally strong results for companies within the S&P 500 Index. As of May 8, 84% of companies had reported earnings above analyst estimates, well above the five-year average of 78%. The breadth of this strength has also been impressive, with seven of the index's eleven sectors posting year-over-year earnings growth rates of at least 10%. Revenue growth has been equally encouraging. The S&P 500 recorded blended revenue growth of 11.3% in the first quarter, marking the 22nd consecutive quarter of revenue expansion. This sustained growth reinforces the argument that corporate fundamentals remain healthy, even amid broader economic uncertainty. As investors continue to debate whether equity markets are overpriced, current earnings and revenue trends suggest that many valuations may be more justified than critics expected at the start of the year. Corporations have largely met or exceeded expectations, providing strong support for market performance. Why Valuations May Not Be as Stretched as They Appear One of the most common concerns among investors today is whether markets have become too expensive. Questions surrounding a potential artificial intelligence bubble and elevated valuations continue to dominate conversations. While valuations in certain areas of the market may appear stretched on the surface, earnings growth is telling a more nuanced story. A key factor often overlooked is the relationship between stock prices and earnings growth. While market prices have risen, earnings expectations have risen even faster. Current estimates for next 12-month earnings per share have increased by approximately 13%, while the broader market has advanced roughly 8% over the same period. This dynamic has led to what is known as “multiple compression.” In simple terms, even though stock prices are rising, companies are becoming relatively less expensive because earnings growth is outpacing price appreciation. This is the opposite of “multiple expansion,” where prices rise faster than earnings and valuations become increasingly stretched. The result is a market that may actually be cheaper today than it was earlier in the year, despite higher index levels. Strong earnings growth has effectively helped valuations normalize, as prices continue working to catch up with improving corporate fundamentals. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Earnings Bonanza first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Inflation, Wages, and the Global Impact of China Economic data released over the past two weeks has provided investors with important insight into the health of the U.S. economy and the potential direction of markets moving forward. One of the most significant reports came from the latest jobs data, which showed the U.S. economy added approximately 115,000 jobs. Even more encouraging, average earnings increased 3.6% year-over-year, coming in stronger than many economists expected and offering another sign of resilience in the labor market. While wage growth is a positive development for workers, the next key question is how much of those gains consumers actually get to keep after inflation. This week's upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports will be closely watched as investors look for clearer signs on inflation trends. These reports remain two of the most important measures of pricing pressures throughout the economy. Energy prices continue to play a major role in the inflation story. Elevated gasoline costs are forcing consumers to dedicate more of their budgets toward fuel expenses, leaving less available for spending in other parts of the economy. Investors will be watching carefully for any signs of “demand destruction,” where higher costs begin slowing consumer activity in other sectors. Adding to the importance of the week, President Trump is expected to travel to China for a high-profile meeting with President Xi Jinping. Discussions are expected to center around tariffs, trade cooperation, and geopolitical concerns involving Iran. Markets will be closely monitoring whether the two countries can make progress toward increasing trade activity between the U.S. and China, which could help ease inflationary pressures globally. China's own inflation data has shown rising pricing pressures, fueled in part by the conflict involving Iran and the impact on oil markets. As one of the largest buyers of Iranian oil, China's role in global energy demand remains significant. Any cooperation or policy shifts resulting from these meetings could influence inflation trends, energy markets, and employment conditions both domestically and abroad. With strong economic data already emerging, investors are now focused on how these global developments may shape the market outlook in the months ahead. Broadening Market Strength Supports Investor Confidence Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, elevated oil prices, and continued questions about Federal Reserve policy, the stock market has remained remarkably resilient. One of the key reasons for this strength has been the continued momentum in corporate earnings. Coming into the year, many analysts anticipated that market leadership would begin to expand beyond the large-cap technology companies that have dominated returns in recent years. That trend is now beginning to materialize, creating what many investors view as a healthier and more sustainable market environment. From January 1 through April 24, small-cap and mid-cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500, signaling stronger participation across a broader range of companies and sectors. This broadening market participation is an encouraging development because it reduces the market's dependence on a small group of mega-cap stocks to drive overall performance. A wider range of companies contributing to market gains can help strengthen the market's ability to navigate uncertainty, whether from geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, or shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Analysts also continue to forecast strong corporate earnings growth across multiple market segments, with some projecting record earnings levels by the end of the year. The combination of resilient earnings, improving participation across the market, and continued economic strength provides a constructive backdrop for investors moving forward. While uncertainty remains a constant factor in financial markets, the expanding strength beneath the surface of the market has become an increasingly positive sign for the remainder of the year. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post What's China Got to Do with It? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Federal Reserve Transition and Rising Dissent The most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting marked a significant transition point, as it was the final meeting led by Chairman Jerome Powell. While leadership changes at the Fed are not unusual, one unexpected development stands out: Powell will remain on the Board of Governors after stepping down as chairman, an uncommon move that introduces a new dynamic within the institution. This decision raises important questions about influence and governance. Former chairs rarely stay on due to the potential complications of overlapping authority, making Powell's continued presence noteworthy as the Fed prepares for incoming leadership under Kevin Walsh. Equally significant is the rise in dissent among committee members. Four out of twelve participants opposed the latest decision, bringing the annual dissent rate to approximately 19%, a relatively high figure by historical standards. While markets often interpret dissent as instability, it may instead signal a healthier, more transparent decision-making process. Diverging viewpoints can lead to more rigorous debate and ultimately stronger policy outcomes. In a complex and uncertain economic environment, unanimity may be less realistic, and less desirable, than thoughtful disagreement. Increased openness within the Fed could provide clearer insight into policy direction and improve market understanding over time. Technology Drives a Strong Earnings Season Corporate earnings have taken center stage, delivering a much-needed boost to market confidence. Following a period of geopolitical tension and rising oil prices, recent earnings reports, particularly from the technology sector, have exceeded expectations and helped propel the S&P 500 higher. The scale of growth within technology has been particularly striking. First-quarter earnings for the sector are projected to grow by more than 50%, far outpacing the rest of the index. Even more notable is the upward revision of future expectations, with 2026 earnings estimates increasing by nearly 15 percentage points as companies accelerate capital investments, especially in artificial intelligence. While debate continues around the long-term payoff of AI spending, early indicators suggest these investments are already contributing to stronger earnings. Enhanced productivity and improved margins are reinforcing the sector's leadership position. If execution remains strong and economic conditions stay supportive, technology companies appear well-positioned to sustain above-average growth. This momentum could continue to play a central role in driving broader market performance and potentially reducing volatility, particularly in historically turbulent election cycles. Economic Stability: GDP and Labor Market Strength The broader economic picture remains steady, with first-quarter real GDP coming in at approximately 2%, aligning with long-term growth targets. After accounting for inflation, this figure reflects a stable and resilient expansion, supported primarily by strong consumer spending. Consumers continue to be the backbone of the economy, representing roughly 70% of total activity. Their consistent spending has offset weaker areas such as housing, which has remained a drag on growth. Meanwhile, components like government spending, trade, and inventories have shown volatility, largely influenced by policy uncertainty and external factors. One of the most compelling data points comes from the labor market. Initial jobless claims recently dropped to 189,000, the lowest level since 1969 on a raw, non-adjusted basis. This milestone underscores the continued strength of employment conditions, one half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate alongside inflation control. While inflation remains an ongoing challenge, the strength in employment provides a solid foundation for the economy. Markets have responded positively to these signals, though attention remains focused on how external pressures, such as geopolitical tensions and energy prices, may influence future quarters. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Earnings Blowout first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Federal Reserve Leadership in Transition A significant shift is underway at the Federal Reserve, placing unusual attention on both policy decisions and leadership changes. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes this week to determine the direction of interest rates, whether to raise, lower, or maintain current levels. While expectations suggest rates will remain unchanged, the real focus lies in the messaging that follows the decision, particularly during the chairman's press conference, where future policy direction is often clarified. This meeting carries added weight as it is likely the final one led by current Chairman Jerome Powell. A key development is the anticipated confirmation of Kevin Warsh as his successor, following movement in the Senate to advance his nomination. The timing creates a rare overlap in influence, with both Powell and Warsh shaping expectations around monetary policy. This dual presence introduces a degree of uncertainty, as markets interpret signals from both current and incoming leadership. Another point of interest is whether Powell will remain on the Federal Reserve Board after stepping down as chairman. Historically, most departing chairs have chosen to leave entirely, though remaining as a voting member is an option. Such a scenario could create an unconventional dynamic within the Fed's leadership structure. At the same time, expectations for interest rate cuts have moderated. Many market participants now anticipate a steady rate environment in the near term. As leadership transitions, attention will remain fixed not only on official statements but also on market reactions, particularly movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, which often reflects the market's true interpretation of policy direction. Market Breadth Signals a Stronger Rally While Federal Reserve policy remains a critical driver of market performance, corporate earnings and profit margins continue to play a foundational role. Alongside these factors, technical indicators offer valuable insight into the sustainability of market trends. One such indicator is the advance-decline line, which measures market breadth by tracking the number of advancing stocks versus declining ones. Unlike price-based indices that can be heavily influenced by large-cap stocks, this metric provides a clearer picture of overall market participation. Recent data shows encouraging signs. The advance-decline line has reached new highs, supported by broad participation across the market. Since the market's low in late March, a majority of stocks have rebounded from oversold conditions, reinforcing the strength of the current rally. Historically, this type of widespread participation has been a reliable signal of more durable upward trends. The improvement in market breadth suggests that the rally is not narrowly concentrated but instead supported by a healthier underlying structure. While no single indicator is definitive, this development strengthens the case for continued market resilience. Oil Prices and Geopolitical Patterns Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, often bring heightened attention to oil prices and their broader economic impact. Initial reactions to such events typically involve sharp price increases, reinforcing concerns about inflation and rising costs for consumers. However, historical trends reveal a more nuanced pattern. Data tracking oil price behavior before and after geopolitical events shows that prices often begin adjusting well in advance, suggesting that markets may anticipate disruptions before they fully materialize. More notably, the longer-term trend tends to contradict the initial spike. On average, oil prices are approximately 5% lower 65 days after a geopolitical event. Extending the timeline further, prices are typically down around 3% after 250 days, with median figures indicating even steeper declines. These patterns suggest that while short-term volatility is common, sustained increases are less typical. This tendency highlights the importance of maintaining a broader perspective when evaluating energy markets. While immediate price movements capture attention, longer-term trends often reflect stabilization or decline as markets adjust and uncertainties resolve. As geopolitical developments continue to unfold, oil prices remain a key variable to monitor, not only for their direct impact on consumers but also for their influence on inflation and overall economic conditions. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Shaking Up the Fed first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Consumer Liquidity, Market Support, and Federal Reserve Watch As the calendar moves past Tax Day, fresh data provides a clearer view of consumer finances. This year has delivered a notable surge in tax refunds, rising 34% year-over-year heading into mid-April. In total, individual refunds have reached approximately $270 billion, well above last year's $225 billion and prior years' levels. This influx of cash offers a meaningful liquidity boost for consumers, helping offset persistent pressures such as elevated energy costs and broader inflationary trends. This added financial cushion comes at a critical time. While oil prices have recently eased from their peaks, they remain relatively high, continuing to strain household budgets. Increased refund activity may therefore serve as a stabilizing force, supporting spending and softening the impact of these external cost pressures. On the market side, recent developments have introduced both volatility and opportunity. A tentative geopolitical ceasefire initially sparked optimism, contributing to a market rally before signs of instability reintroduced uncertainty. Despite this, equities have shown resilience. The S&P 500 has established a higher technical support range, now sitting around 6,800 to 6,900, compared to the previous level, near 6,200. This shift suggests the market may have more room to absorb fluctuations while maintaining its upward trajectory. Attention is also turning toward monetary policy leadership. The United States Senate Banking Committee is set to hold a hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The process carries potential implications for market stability, particularly given ongoing tensions surrounding current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A key date to watch is May 16, the target for finalizing the appointment. Delays or disputes could introduce further uncertainty into financial markets. Corporate Profits as the Market's Anchor Despite the noise surrounding geopolitical tensions, fluctuating interest rate expectations, and valuation concerns, the fundamental driver of market performance remains unchanged: corporate profitability. Over the long term, there has been a strong correlation between profit margins and the trajectory of the S&P 500. Since 2010, corporate profit margins have trended upward significantly, reflecting improved efficiency, pricing power, and economic expansion. This trend continues to serve as a key pillar supporting equity valuations. Current projections suggest that first-quarter profit margins will reach approximately 14.18%, a substantial increase from 9.64% in late 2010 and approaching the record high of 14.45% achieved in the fourth quarter of last year. These elevated margins indicate that companies are maintaining strong earnings power, even amid broader economic uncertainty. As earnings season gains momentum, the focus on profit margins becomes increasingly important. If companies can sustain or even stabilize margins at current levels, the market is likely to retain enough strength to withstand external pressures, from geopolitical instability to shifting monetary policy expectations. While short-term volatility may persist, particularly in response to developments surrounding international conflicts and policy decisions, the underlying health of corporate earnings provides a stabilizing force. In the broader context, it is this earnings strength that will determine whether the market rally can endure. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Will the Market Rally Hold? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Technology Sector and Market Valuations Recent market volatility has led to increased analysis across key sectors, particularly technology. For several years, there have been concerns that the technology sector was overvalued, raising the risk that a correction could negatively impact the broader market. However, recent market movements have helped reset valuations. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for technology stocks have declined significantly, from around 40 to approximately 20, bringing them more in line with the broader market. This shift is important because forward P/E is a key indicator used to assess whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued based on expected future growth rather than past performance. Despite this decline in valuations, earnings growth in the technology sector is still projected to remain strong, with expectations in the mid-teens or higher. This combination of lower valuations and continued earnings growth may attract new investment into the sector. As technology represents a significant portion of the overall market, renewed investor interest could help offset broader market weakness and support overall market stability. Inflation, Energy Prices, and Consumer Impact The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a notable increase in inflation during March, with a 0.9% rise month over month. A significant portion of this increase, more than three-quarters, was driven by an 11% surge in energy prices. While rising energy costs are impactful, it is important to understand how they affect overall consumer spending. When a larger share of income is allocated to fuel, consumers are often forced to reduce spending in other areas. This concept, known as “demand destruction,” occurs when higher prices in one category lead to decreased demand in others. This trend was evident in the most recent data. Outside of energy, a substantial number of goods within the CPI actually saw price declines, with roughly 40% of tracked items decreasing in price. Additionally, recent credit card spending data shows an overall increase in consumer spending, but a disproportionate share, about 40%, has been directed toward gasoline purchases. While consumers may temporarily absorb these higher costs, particularly with the support of tax refunds, the longer-term effect is reduced flexibility in spending. If elevated energy prices persist, this shift could lead to continued strength in the energy sector while creating weakness in other areas of the economy. Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Supply Risks Ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly involving Iran and the United States, continue to play a critical role in energy markets. While initial expectations suggested a short-term conflict lasting four to six weeks, and some de-escalation has occurred, no permanent agreement has been reached. As a result, attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes. Control and restrictions in this region have created ongoing uncertainty in oil distribution. Iran has demonstrated its ability to influence the flow of oil through the strait, at times limiting access while allowing selective shipments. Meanwhile, U.S. efforts to impose additional restrictions further complicate the situation. This dynamic creates the potential for reduced oil supply over an extended period. If these constraints persist, oil prices may remain elevated for longer than initially anticipated. This could further contribute to the demand destruction discussed earlier, as consumers and businesses continue to adjust to higher energy costs. The situation remains fluid, and its impact on both energy markets and the broader economy will depend on future geopolitical developments. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Energy Prices and Your Wallet first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Policy Uncertainty and Market Performance Uncertainty is often viewed as a negative force in financial markets. Periods of geopolitical tension, unclear government policy, or unexpected global events tend to create volatility and investor anxiety. Today's environment is no exception, with elevated uncertainty driven by international conflict, trade concerns, and shifting political dynamics. One way to measure this is through policy uncertainty indexes, which track how unclear or unpredictable government actions are at a given time. Historically, major spikes in uncertainty have occurred during events such as the aftermath of 9/11, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent global trade disruptions. Current readings suggest uncertainty levels are once again elevated, approaching some of those past peaks. However, market behavior during these periods may be more surprising than expected. While markets generally prefer stability, historical data shows that periods of high policy uncertainty have often been followed by strong returns across multiple timeframes, including one month, three months, six months, and even twelve months. This suggests that markets may interpret policy-driven disruptions as temporary rather than structural. In many cases, uncertainty creates opportunity, as investors who remain disciplined can benefit from eventual stabilization and recovery. While past performance never guarantees future results, this trend reinforces the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective during volatile periods. Inflation, Consumer Prices, and What Comes Next Inflation remains one of the most closely watched economic indicators, directly impacting both consumers and investors. Recent economic data has painted a mixed picture, strong in some areas, yet still uncertain in others. The labor market, for example, has shown resilience. Job growth has exceeded expectations, and wage increases have remained steady, indicating underlying economic strength. However, these figures are inherently backward-looking, reflecting conditions that existed before the most recent geopolitical and economic developments. The more pressing question is how rising costs, particularly energy prices, will ripple through the broader economy. Gas prices, often one of the first visible signs of inflation, play a critical role in determining whether higher costs will spread to other goods and services. This dynamic is closely monitored through the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. The key issue is not just whether prices are rising, but how quickly those increases are being passed on to consumers. Companies may choose to absorb higher costs temporarily, or they may pass them along, impacting inflation readings more directly. The upcoming CPI data will be especially important in determining the trajectory of inflation and, in turn, the direction of interest rates. Policymakers, including the Federal Reserve, will be watching closely as they evaluate whether current pressures are temporary or indicative of a more sustained trend. Seasonality and the Strength of April While uncertainty and inflation dominate headlines, historical market trends offer a more optimistic perspective, particularly when it comes to seasonality. Over the long term, the second quarter of the year has consistently delivered strong performance for equities, ranking just behind the fourth quarter. Within that period, April stands out as one of the most reliable months for market gains. Since 1950, April has been positive approximately 70% of the time for the S&P 500, making it the second-best month of the year historically. This pattern suggests that, despite short-term volatility, markets often find footing during this period. Several factors may contribute to this trend, including the inflow of tax refunds, renewed investor activity following the first quarter, and improving economic visibility as the year progresses. While seasonality alone should never drive investment decisions, it can provide a helpful tailwind when combined with other supportive factors. After a volatile start to the year, these historical patterns offer a measure of cautious optimism. If past trends hold, April and the broader second quarter could provide an opportunity for stabilization and potential growth. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post History, Please Repeat Yourself first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.