Podcast appearances and mentions of Greg Powell

Tax Refunds and the Consumer Spending Boost There is encouraging news on the tax front. Tax refunds for 2026 are already running approximately $3 billion ahead of last year, reflecting a 17% increase driven in part by recent tax legislation. While that growth rate is slightly below earlier projections, it remains strong and meaningful. Historically, refund season begins to accelerate in late February and continues through May. Current data show this year's refunds are already tracking ahead of prior years, suggesting that a meaningful influx of cash into households is just beginning. Why does this matter for investors? Consumer spending is a major engine of the U.S. economy and a key contributor to corporate revenue and profit growth. With interest rates trending lower and refunds rising, more money in consumers' pockets could translate into stronger spending. Increased spending supports corporate profitability, which in turn underpins stock market performance. We are monitoring refund trends closely, as they may provide an important tailwind for economic growth and equities in the months ahead. The Supreme Court Ruling and the Future of Tariffs Tariff policy shifted dramatically following a recent Supreme Court ruling regarding the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPA). While IEPA has traditionally been used for sanctions and embargoes, it had been applied in this case to implement tariffs. The Court ruled that using IEPA in this way was unconstitutional. Importantly, the decision does not eliminate the executive branch's authority to impose tariffs. Congress has granted tariff powers through other established mechanisms. In response to the ruling, the administration moved quickly to replace IEPA-based tariffs with alternative authorities, including Section 122 for a broad 15% tariff framework, as well as Sections 301 and 232 for more targeted, country- and industry-specific tariffs. Existing tariffs on industries such as steel and aluminum, as well as tariffs imposed on China beginning in 2018 under Section 301, remain in place. The ruling also raises questions about roughly $130 billion in tariffs previously collected under IEPA. Corporations are expected to pursue litigation seeking refunds, a process that could take months or even years to resolve. While companies may fight aggressively for those funds, consumers should not expect direct reimbursement for tariff-related price increases on retail goods. For markets, the key takeaway is that while the legal pathway has changed, the overall revenue expectations from tariffs are projected to remain similar. However, the structure has become more complex, and policy developments in this area will continue to warrant close attention. Earnings Growth: The Market's Lifeblood Amid political noise and policy debates, it is important to remember that corporate earnings ultimately drive market performance. With approximately 75% of companies reporting, revenue growth is coming in at roughly 8.5%, exceeding earlier expectations of 6% to 7.5%. Even more impressive is earnings growth, currently tracking around 13.5%, well above prior projections in the 7.5% to 9% range. Strong earnings help justify elevated market valuations. When companies deliver accelerating profits, investors are often willing to pay higher multiples. However, rising earnings also bring rising expectations. Current projections call for approximately 14% earnings growth in 2026 and 15% in 2027, ambitious targets that will require sustained economic strength. Markets often react not just to results, but to the gap between expectations and reality. A solid 10% earnings growth rate could disappoint if investors expected 15%. Conversely, modest expectations that are exceeded can support continued market gains. That is why we monitor both present results and forward-looking projections. Managing expectations is just as important as measuring performance. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Tariffs, Taxes, and Earnings, Oh My! first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Market Breadth is Strengthening One of the most important themes so far this year has been the broadening out of the stock market. In recent years, the market's gains were heavily concentrated in the largest companies, particularly the “Magnificent 7,” with the top 5 to 10 stocks dramatically outperforming the rest of the index. This year, the pattern has shifted in a meaningful way. Instead of a narrow rally led by a small group at the top, a much larger share of the S&P 500 has begun contributing to overall performance. While these companies may be smaller relative to the largest names, they are still substantial businesses, and their improved participation is a healthy sign for the market. Several indicators reinforce this trend: 68% of S&P 500 stocks are currently trading above their 200-day moving average, which is the highest level since 2024. This suggests the overall market remains structurally intact despite periodic pullbacks and volatility. The percentage of stocks reaching 52-week highs is extremely strong, sitting around the 96th percentile, a level typically associated with broad momentum. Perhaps most striking is how dramatically the market's leadership has changed. In 2023, 2024, and 2025, the top 10 stocks contributed more than 50% of the S&P 500's total performance. In 2026, the market is still up year-to-date, but the top 10 stocks have actually detracted from returns by roughly 26%. That final point highlights how different the current environment is. The market is moving higher, but not because the largest names are carrying the index. Instead, strength is spreading across a broader base of companies. The Inflation vs. Productivity Test for 2026 A broadening market is generally considered a healthier market. When more companies participate in a rally, it suggests the underlying economy is stronger and more evenly supported. Two major data releases this week will help determine whether that support can continue, especially as the economy enters what may become one of the defining themes of 2026: the race between inflation and productivity. At the center of this issue is a critical question: Can productivity grow fast enough to offset rising costs? More specifically, can output per worker increase at a pace that allows wages to rise without forcing prices higher? This week brings two important economic signals – Wednesday: the jobs report, delayed due to the temporary government shutdown; Friday: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the key inflation reading Together, these reports will provide insight into both labor market strength and inflation pressure, and they will feed directly into market expectations for interest rates. One of the most important market indicators right now is the 10-year Treasury yield. Historically, the stock market has tended to hold up well as long as the 10-year yield remains below 4.5%. The yield is currently around 4.2%, and it has remained relatively stable in a tight range, below 4.5% and above 4%, for most of the past year. That range matters because the 10-year yield is highly sensitive to inflation expectations. If inflation spikes again, interest rates are likely to rise, and higher rates can quickly tighten financial conditions and pressure stock valuations. The path to keeping inflation stable depends heavily on productivity. When workers can produce more output per hour, it helps absorb higher wages without pushing prices higher. In that environment, inflation stays contained, interest rates remain more stable, and markets tend to respond positively. Ultimately, inflation, productivity, and interest rates are interconnected. If productivity growth can keep pace with rising labor costs, the economy can move into a positive reinforcing cycle. If not, inflation pressures can re-emerge and lead to higher rates, creating a more challenging environment for both economic growth and market performance. The market's recent broadening is an encouraging sign, and this week's data will help determine whether that trend has the foundation to continue as 2026 unfolds. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post The Race Between Inflation and Productivity first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Federal Reserve Policy and the “Height Chart” Theory The Federal Reserve met last week and, as widely expected, made no changes to interest rates. The decision generated little market reaction, largely because economic conditions have not deteriorated enough to warrant rate cuts. Long-term rates have remained relatively stable, short-term rates have already adjusted downward, and overall economic growth continues at a pace similar to last year. With two meetings remaining before May, markets are not expecting significant action from the Fed in the near term. The more notable development came at the end of the week with the announcement that President Trump intends to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh is a well-known and respected economist who previously served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, becoming one of the youngest members in history at age 36. His public record suggests a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, with a strong emphasis on controlling inflation rather than pursuing easy money policies. Markets reacted quickly to the news. Interest rates moved higher, and precious metals experienced sharp declines, reflecting expectations that Warsh would favor tighter monetary discipline. While some investors were surprised by the direction of rates, history suggests the trajectory may be less mysterious than it seems. A tongue-in-cheek but intriguing chart highlights a correlation between the height of Federal Reserve Chairs and prevailing interest rate environments. From Paul Volcker's era of high rates to the gradual declines under Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the zero-rate policies during Janet Yellen's tenure, and the renewed tightening under Jerome Powell, the pattern has been remarkably consistent. Kevin Warsh appears to align closely with Powell in this framework, suggesting rates may remain near current levels. While clearly correlation, not causation, the chart offers a memorable way to think about where policy may be headed. The AI Bubble Question: Reality vs. Headlines Recent market volatility, including a sharp one-day decline of more than 10% in a major technology stock, has reignited concerns about a potential artificial intelligence bubble. Comparisons to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s have resurfaced, but the data tells a very different story. During the dot-com era, stock prices surged far ahead of underlying earnings. Valuations became detached from fundamentals, creating the conditions for a dramatic market correction. In contrast, today's AI-driven market environment shows a much closer alignment between stock prices and forward earnings growth. Since 2020, equity valuations have largely been supported by real and measurable earnings expansion. While no investment theme is without risk, current market behavior does not reflect the kind of irrational exuberance that defined the late 1990s. One company's short-term stock movement should not overshadow the broader fundamentals driving the sector. For long-term investors, the focus remains on earnings growth, balance sheets, and sustainable business models, not headlines or single-day market moves. Economic Strength, Productivity, and Inflation The broader economy continues to show signs of resilience, particularly in the area of productivity. U.S. productivity growth has been gaining momentum, with the most recent quarter approaching 5%, following another strong quarter near 4%. This improvement is especially notable as productivity gains have been elusive for much of the past decade. Artificial intelligence appears to be playing a meaningful role in this trend, supporting efficiency and output across industries. The interaction between productivity and inflation will be critical to watch going forward. While oil prices have begun to rise, a potential inflationary risk, other forces are helping keep inflation anchored. Labor costs, in particular, have remained relatively contained. Wage growth has been fairly flat, which can make the economy feel weaker for consumers still adjusting to residual inflation from 2021 and 2022. However, this same restraint has helped prevent inflation from reaccelerating. A simple way to view the current environment is through the balance of money and output. Inflation tends to rise when more money chases the same amount of goods. Today, money supply growth has slowed, and if productivity continues to improve, allowing the economy to produce more goods and services, price pressures may remain manageable. This dynamic will be central to the economic outlook in the months and years ahead. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Walking Tall at the Fed first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Broad Market Participation Signals Improving Market Health After several years of narrow leadership, early signs suggest the market is finally beginning to broaden. Market expansion, measured by how many stocks are participating in overall gains, is a critical component of a healthy and sustainable bull market. While major indexes may continue to hit new highs, the underlying strength of the market depends on participation beyond just a small group of dominant companies. Recent data shows meaningful improvement. Roughly 70% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 200-day moving average, a level that reflects strong internal momentum. In most market environments, readings above 50% are considered healthy, making the current figure particularly encouraging. Small-cap stocks are also beginning to outperform, a development that often confirms a change in market trend. When smaller companies start to lead, it suggests that investor confidence is expanding beyond large-cap leaders. This type of rotation is especially important during an ongoing bull market. Another notable metric is the percentage of stocks outperforming the index itself. About 65% of S&P 500 companies are beating the index year-to-date. While the calendar has only just turned to January, this would be the second-highest reading in the past 50 years if it persists. Together, these indicators point toward the type of market expansion that supports long-term growth. Earnings Season Could Accelerate the Expansion While broader participation is already taking shape, corporate earnings may determine whether this trend continues. The market is currently in the heart of earnings season, and this week represents one of the busiest reporting periods of the year. On Wednesday alone, approximately 20% of the S&P 500 will release earnings results. In total, these companies represent about $8 trillion in market capitalization. To put that number in context, the entire Shanghai Stock Exchange, the largest stock exchange outside the United States, has a total market capitalization of just under $8 trillion. In effect, an amount comparable to China's entire equity market will be reporting earnings in a single day. If companies outside the largest mega-cap stocks continue to deliver strong earnings, the market could see further upside driven by this broader base of performance. That would be a constructive setup early in the year, particularly given the long-held belief that January's trends often set the tone for the rest of the year. Sustained earnings growth could help reinforce the current expansion, creating a stronger and more durable uptrend, one that provides investors with a wider range of opportunities as the year unfolds. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Market Expansion first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Seasonality and the Midterm Election Effect Seasonality has long played a role in understanding market behavior, and historical trends can help inform portfolio strategy. January has often set the tone for the year ahead. Historically, a positive January has skewed returns higher over the subsequent quarter, half-year, and full year, while a negative January has tended to precede weaker performance. With the first part of January 2026 already complete, markets have gotten off to a respectable start. While this is no guarantee of future performance, history suggests it is a constructive signal. Another important factor this year is the midterm election cycle. Markets have often underperformed in January and February during midterm election years, driven largely by political uncertainty. Typically, there is an initial lift early in the year, followed by volatility as investors grapple with unknown policy outcomes. Monitoring how markets respond during this period will be critical in assessing how these early dynamics may influence the rest of 2026. Productivity as the Engine of Growth Recent economic data has provided a clearer picture of the economy's underlying strength, particularly in the labor market and productivity trends. Employment growth has moderated after a prolonged period of strength, raising questions about whether the economy can continue to grow without a hot labor market. Gross domestic products are driven by two primary forces: how many people are working and how productive those workers are. While recent job gains, approximately 50,000 new jobs, reflect modest growth, wage data has been encouraging, with wages rising 3.8% year over year. The most notable development has been a sharp increase in productivity. Third-quarter productivity growth surged to an annualized rate of 4.9%, a significant and unexpected jump. This matters because productivity allows the economy to grow without fueling inflation. When productivity rises faster than wages, both labor and capital can benefit simultaneously. With wages up 3.8% and productivity up 4.9%, there is an implied expansion in profit margins, creating growth without upward pressure on prices. This dynamic represents an ideal balance, economic expansion that rewards workers while maintaining pricing stability. Upcoming inflation data, including CPI and PPI, will be closely watched to see whether this productivity-driven growth continues to flow through the broader economy. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post We'll See… first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Volatility, the Fed, and the Productivity Question The year 2026 is poised to be a major inflection point. While 2025 represented a transition phase, toward artificial intelligence adoption and hoped-for productivity gains, 2026 may be the year where outcomes must finally materialize. In many ways, it is a “prove it” year for markets and policy alike. One expected source of volatility is the political cycle. Historically, the second year of a presidential term has been the most volatile period in the market cycle. On average, it experiences deeper drawdowns, nearly 20%, but also stronger recoveries from those lows. While volatility itself is expected, its catalyst is often unpredictable, reinforcing the need for preparedness and flexibility. Another major transition involves the Federal Reserve. A new Fed Chair is expected to take the helm in 2026, and history shows that markets often test new leadership early. Previous Fed Chairs faced sharp drawdowns soon after assuming office, driven by inflation and interest rate concerns. This leadership change comes at a critical moment, as the economy attempts to move beyond the post-COVID imbalance of too much money chasing too few goods. A key metric to watch is the relationship between wages and essential living costs. While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2022, wages have yet to decisively outpace the rising cost of necessities such as food, energy, housing, and insurance. For meaningful progress, productivity must increase so that wage growth can exceed cost growth, a shift that would significantly ease the Fed's policy dilemma. Adding another layer of complexity is the anticipated surge in tax refunds in early 2026. Due to tax legislation passed in 2025, refunds are expected to rise by an estimated 44%, injecting $150–$200 billion into the hands of consumers. Historically, American consumers tend to spend these funds, providing a near-term economic boost. Whether that spending fuels sustainable growth or reignites inflation remains one of the key unknowns policymakers will face. Earnings, Commodities, and Market Concentration As attention turns to investment strategy for 2026, three themes stand out: corporate profits, commodity prices, and market concentration. Corporate earnings remain a primary driver of equity market performance, and current indicators suggest continued strength. Investment in artificial intelligence, resilient consumer spending, and the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts all support the outlook for sustained profit growth. If these trends continue, corporate earnings could remain a positive force for markets in the year ahead. Commodity prices, particularly gold, silver, and copper, represent another area of focus. Gold's strong performance has been fueled by concerns over currency debasement, deglobalization, inflation pressures, and large fiscal deficits. However, renewed U.S. economic strength and strong GDP growth could slow the pace of rate cuts, potentially putting downward pressure on precious metals. Whether commodities can continue to surprise to the upside remains an open question. The third and perhaps most critical theme is market concentration. Today, the ten largest stocks account for roughly 41% of the S&P 500, with most deeply tied to artificial intelligence. This raises an important question for 2026: can AI-related investment spending continue at current levels, and will market leadership broaden? The outlook suggests that the simultaneous presence of fiscal, regulatory, and monetary stimulus could support broader earnings growth. A widening of market participation would be a healthier development for investors and could reduce the risks associated with excessive concentration. Energy Markets and an Unfolding Global Surprise One of the most unexpected developments heading into 2026 has emerged from Latin America, particularly Venezuela. Political unrest and potential leadership changes have introduced new uncertainty into global energy markets, making this an evolving situation that demands close attention. At the center of the discussion is the distinction between heavy crude and light crude oil. For decades, the U.S. relied heavily on imports of heavy crude from countries like Venezuela and Canada, which require specialized refining infrastructure. While domestic production of light crude has increased significantly, U.S. refining capacity remains well-suited for heavier grades. This imbalance has contributed to a growing spread between oil prices and gasoline prices. While oil prices have declined sharply, gasoline prices have fallen far less, largely due to refining constraints. A potential reintroduction of Venezuelan heavy crude into U.S. markets, if geopolitical restrictions ease, could help narrow this spread. Lower fuel costs would have meaningful implications for consumers and the broader economy, particularly by easing cost-of-living pressures that weigh heavily on household budgets. While the situation remains fluid, it highlights how geopolitical events can produce unexpected ripple effects with tangible economic consequences. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Expect the Unexpected in 2026 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Closing Out 2025: Setting the Stage for 2026 As 2025 comes to a close, the economic landscape offers both reassurance and reason for vigilance as we look ahead to 2026. Inflation has been the defining theme of the year, and recent data suggests meaningful progress. The latest CPI reading for November showed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, below expectations of 3.1%. While this data should be interpreted cautiously due to missing October inflation and unemployment figures, the broader takeaway is clear: inflation remains below 3% and is not rebounding aggressively, even amid ongoing tariff concerns. This marks a productive year in the fight against inflation. However, history suggests the story may not be over. Inflation has often moved in waves, with pauses followed by renewed surges. Current trends indicate we may be in one of those pause periods. Previous inflationary eras, such as those beginning in 1910, 1939, and 1972, saw inflation reaccelerate after similar lulls. One underappreciated factor bears close watching: money supply growth. Currently expanding at roughly 4.6%, money supply has historically been a leading indicator of renewed inflationary pressure. Should inflation move higher in 2026, it would likely remain a central driver of market behavior and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. This is a dynamic that will continue to shape economic headlines and investment decision-making in the year ahead. Lower Gas Prices and a Tailwind for Holiday Travel One encouraging contributor to easing inflation is the recent decline in gas prices, welcome news during the busiest travel season of the year. AAA estimates that approximately 122.4 million Americans will drive more than 50 miles from home between now and year-end. On a typical day, the U.S. consumes about 376 million gallons of gasoline, a figure expected to rise significantly during this peak travel period. Even small changes in gas prices have an outsized economic impact. A 10-cent decrease at the pump translates into roughly $40 million in daily savings for the U.S. economy. Over the past year, gas prices have fallen about 10%, while oil has dropped more than 30%. This gap suggests gas prices may have further room to decline as they catch up with oil's sustained downward trend. Lower fuel costs provide a dual benefit: easing inflationary pressure heading into 2026 and giving consumers a financial tailwind during the holiday shopping season. For households and the broader economy alike, this trend is a timely and positive development. Market Rotation and the Santa Claus Rally As the year winds down, attention often turns to the so-called “Santa Claus rally,” a seasonal market pattern that spans the final five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next. This rally does not begin until Christmas Eve, meaning expectations should remain measured until that window arrives. Historically, markets have tended to post gains during this short period, though outcomes are never guaranteed. Still, performance during these days is often viewed as an indicator heading into the new year. Beyond seasonal trends, market rotation has been a notable feature of recent months. While headline indexes may appear to have stalled in November and December, the underlying story is more constructive. The top-performing 10% of stocks from January through October, leaders for much of the year, have recently underperformed, while previously lagging segments have begun to outperform. This broadening of leadership is a hallmark of a healthier market. Recent milestones underscore this rotation. Bank of America reached an all-time high for the first time since 2006, and Cisco achieved a new high for the first time since 2000, nearly 25 years. These examples are not about individual stock recommendations and are about illustrating how leadership is spreading across sectors and styles, reinforcing the durability of the broader market environment. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Closing Out 2025 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Corporate Earnings and a Broadening Market One of the most compelling themes as we transition from 2025 into 2026 is the continued strength of corporate earnings. Estimated 12-month S&P 500 operating margins have climbed to historically impressive levels, reinforcing the idea that Corporate America remains on solid financial footing. As has been noted, a recession accompanied by positive earnings growth would be unprecedented, and that matters. Strong earnings not only support near-term market stability but also create a longer runway for continued performance. Beyond earnings strength alone, another encouraging development is the broadening of market participation. Over the last several years, market returns have been dominated by a small group of large-cap technology stocks. That concentration has been a frequent concern for investors. Encouragingly, earnings growth among the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 is now expected to converge with that of the so-called “Magnificent Seven.” This shift suggests that market leadership may become more balanced in 2026. If that trend continues, it could represent one of the most important investment narratives of the coming year and a meaningful opportunity as portfolios are positioned for the future. The Federal Reserve and the Flow-Through to the Economy While earnings and market breadth tell one part of the story, monetary policy remains a critical variable. The Federal Reserve recently concluded its final meeting of the year with a 25-basis-point rate cut, placing the federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. More significant than the cut itself was the language used by the Fed, signaling that rates are now within a plausible estimate of neutral. In practical terms, this suggests a likely pause in rate cuts in the near term. From our perspective, that pause is a positive development. It allows time for previously implemented cuts to work their way through the economy. Short-term rates affect savers, but long-term rates, where businesses and individuals borrow, are what truly drive economic activity. One area we are watching particularly closely is the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate. While the U.S. government may borrow near 4%, many individuals are still borrowing at rates above 6%, creating a wider-than-average spread. Historically, that spread averages closer to 1.77%. Even without dramatic declines in Treasury yields, a return to historical norms could significantly lower mortgage rates and materially improve affordability for borrowers. A stable Fed, combined with time for rate cuts to flow through to long-term borrowing costs, could provide meaningful relief to households and businesses alike. Importantly, if the economy remains strong, with healthy earnings and resilient markets, the Fed does not need to act aggressively. In that context, a pause becomes a signal of confidence rather than concern. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post We've Never Seen… first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

The Fed's Crucial Role and What Comes Next The Federal Reserve continues to dominate market conversations, and for good reason. Each decision the Fed makes, particularly regarding interest rates, carries direct implications for markets, borrowing, saving, and overall economic momentum. This week's meeting is no exception. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, but the real story lies beyond the short-term benchmark rate. While the Fed controls the front end of the yield curve, long-term rates move largely on market forces. That distinction matters: savers benefit from high short-term yields, but it's borrowers who depend on lower long-term rates. Recently, even as the Fed has cut rates, long-term yields have plateaued or drifted higher, reducing the intended impact of monetary easing. Whether long-term rates follow this next cut will be a critical signal for what comes next. This meeting also arrives at a transitional moment. It is likely the final meeting before a new Federal Reserve Chair is announced, with expectations centered around Kevin Hassett, though, as always, presidential decisions remain unpredictable. By the next meeting in late January, Chair Powell will be operating as a lame-duck leader, with his successor already named. Additionally, the Fed has recently halted its balance-sheet reduction, introducing more uncertainty into how they approach liquidity and money supply management going forward. With so many moving parts, rate cuts, balance sheet policy, and leadership changes, this week's meeting is likely to spark notable market reaction. Global Equity Trends Strengthen the Outlook Alongside improving U.S. economic fundamentals, such as strong corporate earnings, moderating rates, and steady consumer resilience, global equity markets have been quietly building positive momentum. Nearly every major global index has shifted into a positive trend, a significant development after years of mixed or uneven global performance. Most global markets made this turn in 2025, signaling that equity strength is no longer isolated to the U.S. but is broadening worldwide. This synchronized uptrend is a constructive sign for investors and supports a healthier market environment heading into 2026. With global momentum now aligning with domestic fundamentals, the market backdrop continues to strengthen on multiple fronts. The Truth Behind Today's AI Bubble Fears Concerns about a potential AI-driven market bubble have become increasingly common, both in financial news and in client conversations. However, current data suggests the sector's growth is not speculative in the way many fear. Technology stocks have indeed rallied, but importantly, their valuations have not expanded beyond what earnings justify. Year-to-date, there has been no multiple expansion in the technology sector, meaning prices have risen because profits have risen, not because investors are blindly paying more for the same fundamentals. A comparison of current valuations to those seen during the dot-com bubble further underscores the difference. In March 2000, many companies traded at 100–150 times forward earnings. Today, nearly all major technology companies remain under 50 times earnings. While not “cheap,” these valuations are grounded in real profitability and genuine business strength. The landscape is nowhere near the speculative extremes of 2000. In short, while AI is a powerful long-term theme, the data does not support the idea that markets have entered an AI bubble, at least not yet. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Fed Up with the Fed and AI first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

AI is changing the game, and this week on Innovation Mavericks, Greg Powell sits down with Magna5's Justin Cameron, Jacob Bever, and Jeff Jablonski to explore how businesses are turning AI into real-world results. From driving team adoption to keeping the conversation moving in a rapidly evolving landscape, their insights are not to be missed. […] The post How Smart Businesses are Using AI to Level Up: Insights with Magna5 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.