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Today's podcast features Stephen Calkins, a law professor at Wayne State University in Detroit and former General Counsel of the Federal Trade Commission (the “FTC”). President Trump recently fired, without good cause, the two Democratic members of the FTC, leaving only two Republican members as commissioners. He did this even though the FTC Act provides that a commissioner may be fired by the President only for good cause and that the commission is to be governed by a bi-partisan 5-member commission This is the third time in the past few weeks that Trump has fired without good cause democratic members of other federal agencies; the other two being the National Labor Relations Board (The “NLRB”) and the Merit Selection Protection Board (The “MSPB”). The statutes governing those two agencies, like the FTC Act, allow the President to fire a member of the governing board for good cause only. The fired members of all three agencies initiated lawsuits in federal district court for the District of Columbia, seeking mandatory preliminary injunctions requiring those agencies to reinstate them with back pay. We discuss the status of the two lawsuits and how the outcome will turn on whether the Supreme Court will apply or overrule a 1935 Supreme Court opinion in Humphrey's Executor, which held that the provision in the Constitution allowing the President to fire an FTC commissioner for good cause only did not run afoul of the separation of powers clause in the Constitution. Conversely, the Supreme Court will need to determine whether the Supreme Court opinion in Seila Law, LLC V. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau should apply to these two new cases. In Seila Law, the Supreme Court held on Constitutional grounds, that the President could fire without good cause the sole director of the CFPB even though the Dodd-Frank Act allowed the President to fire the sole director of the CFPB for good cause only. Until this gets resolved, the FTC will be governed only by two Republican commissioners who will constitute a quorum for purposes of conducting official business. Professor Calkins explains how a Supreme Court ruling in these two new cases upholding Trump's firing of the Democratic members of the agencies could enable the President to fire without good cause members of other multiple-member agencies, like the Federal Reserve Board. We then discuss the status of the following four final controversial FTC rule, some of which were challenged in court: the CARS Rule, the Click-to-Cancel Rule, the Junk Fee Rule, and the Non-Compete Rule. We also discuss the impact of President Trump's Executive Order requiring that all federal agencies, including so-called “independent” agencies, must obtain approval from the White House before taking any significant actions, like proposing or finalizing rules. Then, we discuss the status of enforcement investigations and litigation and whether any of them have been voluntarily dismissed with prejudice by the FTC under Trump 2.0, whether any new enforcement lawsuits been filed, and what they involve. We discuss our expectation that the FTC will be a lot less active in the consumer protection enforcement area during Trump 2.0. We then discuss the impact on staffing because of DOGE-imposed reductions-in-force. Finally, we touch upon the status of pending antitrust enforcement lawsuits. Alan Kaplinsky, former practice group leader for 25 years of the Consumer Financial Services Group and now Senior Counsel, hosts the discussion.
Vincent and Joel sit down LIVE with SC Secretary of Commerce, Harry Lightsey III, before the Leadership Columbia class of 2025 in the Palmetto Club. Hear the famous segment "Bourbon Briefs" where the senators recap the most recent events in the Capitol, legislative pay raises, further gubernatorial controversy, and more! Then listen to the Senators discuss South Carolina economic development with the Secretary of Commerce himself. Hear about his career in government and business, time on the Federal Reserve Board, and work in South Carolina to bring businesses in, invest in the State, and help build better communities. Get your latest Statehouse update and hear firsthand the rationale behind some of the legislature's most controversial bills. Join Senators Sheheen and Lourie in this week's episode where they take a deeper look at upcoming legislation and lawmakers' actions in S.C. Support the showKeep up to Date with BITBR: Twitter.com/BITBRpodcastFacebook.com/BITBRpodcasthttps://bourboninthebackroom.buzzsprout.com
Preview: Colleague Joseph Sternberg Comments Why POTUS Needs Jerome Powell. More Later. 1917 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
The Capitalism and Freedom in the Twenty-First Century Podcast
Jon Hartley and Phillip Swagel discuss Phill's career as an academic economist, his time in economic policy, why the CBO is important in the budget policy process, current law versus current policy baselines, dynamic scoring versus static scoring, the accuracy of CBO scores, CBO modeling, as well as CBO model transparency. Recorded on March 18, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Phillip Swagel became the 10th Director of the Congressional Budget Office on June 3, 2019. Previously, he was a professor at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and the Milken Institute. He has also taught at Northwestern University, the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and Georgetown University. His research has involved financial market reform, international trade policy, and China's role in the global economy. From 2006 to 2009, Dr. Swagel was Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department, where he was responsible for analysis of a wide range of economic issues, including policies relating to the financial crisis and the Troubled Asset Relief Program. He has also served as chief of staff and senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers in the White House and as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board and the International Monetary Fund. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and his A.B. in economics from Princeton University. Jon Hartley is currently a Policy Fellow at the Hoover Institution, an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center. Jon also is the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast, an official podcast of the Hoover Institution, a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and the chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a Fixed Income Portfolio Construction and Risk Management Associate and as a Quantitative Investment Strategies Client Portfolio Management Senior Analyst and in various policy/governmental roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada. Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information, visit: capitalismandfreedom.substack.com/
Our podcast show being released today is part 2 of a repurposed interactive webinar that we presented on March 24 featuring two of the leading journalists who cover the CFPB - Jon Hill from Law360 and Evan Weinberger from Bloomberg. Our show begins with Tom Burke, a Ballard Spahr consumer financial services litigator, describing in general terms the status of the 38 CFPB enforcement lawsuits that were pending when Rohit Chopra was terminated. The cases fall into four categories: (a) those which have already been voluntarily dismissed with prejudice by the CFPB; (b) those which the CFPB has notified the courts that it intends to continue to prosecute; (c) those in which the CFPB has sought a stay for a period of time in order for it to evaluate whether or not to continue to prosecute them where the stay has been granted by the courts; and (d) those in which the CFPB's motion for a stay has been denied by the courts or not yet acted upon. Alan Kaplinsky then gave a short report describing a number of bills introduced this term related to the CFPB. Alan remarked that the only legislative effort which might bear fruit for the Republicans is to attempt to add to the budget reconciliation bill a provision subjecting the CFPB to funding through Congressional appropriations. Such an effort would need to be approved by the Senate Parliamentarian. Finally, Alan expressed surprise that the Republicans, in seeking to shut down the CFPB, have not relied on the argument that the CFPB has been unlawfully funded by the Federal Reserve Board since September 2022 because there has been no “combined earnings of the Federal Reserve Banks” beginning then through the present. (Dodd-Frank stipulates that the CFPB may be funded only out of such “combined earnings”). For more information about that funding issue, listen to Alan's recent interview of Professor Hal Scott of Harvard Law School who has written prolifically about it. On Monday of this week, Professor Scott published his third op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, in which he concluded: “Since the bureau is operating illegally, the president can halt its work immediately by executive order. The order should declare that all work at the CFPB will stop, that all rules enacted since funding became illegal in September 2022 are void, and that no new rules will be enforced.” Joseph Schuster then briefly described what has been happening at other federal agencies with respect to consumer financial services matters. Joseph and Alan reported on the fact that President Trump recently fired without cause the two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission leaving only two Republican members on the Commission. He took that action despite an old Supreme Court case holding that the language in the FTC Act stating that the President may remove an FTC member only for cause does not run afoul of the separation of powers clause in the Constitution. The two Democratic commissioners have sued the Administration for violating the FTC Act provision, stating that the President may only remove an FTC commissioner for cause. The President had previously fired Democratic members at the Merit Systems Selection Board and National Labor Relations Board. President Trump based his firings on the belief that the Supreme Court will overrule the old Supreme Court case on the basis that the “termination for cause” language in the relevant statutes is unconstitutional. After the recording of this webinar, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals stayed, by a 2-1 vote, a District Court order holding that Trump's firing of the Democratic members of the NLRB and Merit Systems Selection Board was unlawful. That order was subsequently overturned by the court of appeals acting en banc. Subsequently, Chief Justice Roberts stayed that order. In light of these developments, it seems unlikely that the two FTC commissioners will be reinstated, if at all, until the Supreme Court decides the case. Also, after the recording of this webinar, the Senate confirmed a third Republican to be an FTC commissioner. For those of you who want a deeper dive into post-election developments at federal agencies other than the CFPB, please register for our webinar titled “What Is Happening at the Federal Agencies (Other Than the CFPB) That is Relevant to the Consumer Financial Services Industry?” which will occur on May 13, 2025. Joseph then discussed developments at the FDIC where the FDIC withdrew the very controversial brokered deposits proposal, the 2023 corporate governance proposal, the Change-in-Bank- Control Act proposal and the incentive-based compensation proposal. He also reported that the FDIC rescinded its 2024 Statement of Policy on Bank Merger Transactions and delayed the compliance date for certain provisions in the sign and advertising rule. Joseph then discussed developments at the OCC where it (and the FDIC) announced that it would no longer use “reputation risk” as a basis for evaluating the safety and soundness of state-chartered banks that it supervises. The OCC, also, conditionally approved a charter for a Fintech business model to be a national bank and withdrew statements relating to crypto currency risk. Finally, Joseph discussed how state AGs and departments of banking have significantly ramped up their enforcement activities in response to what is happening at the CFPB. The podcast ended with each participant expressing his view on what the CFPB will look like when the dust settles. The broad consensus is that the CFPB will continue to operate with a greatly reduced staff and will only perform duties that are statutorily required. It is anticipated that there will be very little rulemaking except for rules that the CFPB is required to issue - namely, the small business data collection rule under 1071 of Dodd-Frank and the open banking rule under 1033 of Dodd-Frank. The panel also felt that the number of enforcement lawsuits and investigations will measurably decline with the focus being on companies engaged in blatant fraud or violations of the Military Lending Act. This podcast show was hosted by Alan Kaplinsky, the former practice group leader for 25 years and now senior counsel of the Consumer Financial Services Group. If you missed part 1 of our repurposed webinar produced on March 24, click here for a blog describing its content and a link to the podcast itself. In short, part 1 featured Jon Hill from Law360 and Evan Weinberger from Bloomberg, who chronicle the initiatives of CFPB Acting Directors Scott Bessent and Russell Vought and DOGE to dismantle the CFPB and the status of the two lawsuits brought to enjoin those initiatives. Ballard Spahr partners John Culhane and Rich Andreano give a status report on the effort of Acting Director Vought to nullify most of the final and proposed rules and other written guidance issued by Rohit Chopra. The podcast concludes with John and Rich describing the fact that supervision and examinations of banks and non-banks is non-existent.
Top Stories:1. Development site on Tacoma's waterfront hits the marketPSBJ article2. WA college students' visas revokedSeattle Times article3. What's next for The Swiss building?The News Tribune article4. Duke's Seafood on Alki is closedEater Seattle articleAbout guest Dr. Sheila Edwards Lange - Chancellor, UW Tacoma:Sheila has been the Chancellor at UW Tacoma for just about 4 years. Prior to this she was the President of Seattle Central College and before that Vice President of University of Washington. Sheila is currently the Board Chair for AAA Washington and on the Federal Reserve Board.About host Rachel Horgan:Rachel is an independent event producer, emcee and entrepreneur. She worked for the Business Journal for 5 years as their Director of Events interviewing business leaders on stage before launching the weekly podcast. She earned her communication degree from the University of San Diego. Contact:Email: info@theweeklyseattle.comInstagram: @theweeklyseattleWebsite: www.theweeklyseattle.com
Our special podcast show today deals primarily with a 112-page opinion and 3-page order issued on March 28 by Judge Amy Berman Jackson of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia in a lawsuit brought, among others, by two labor unions representing CFPB employees against Acting Director Russell Vought. The complaint alleged that Acting Director Vought and others were in the process of dismantling the CFPB through various actions taken since Rohit Chopra was fired and replaced by Acting Director Scott Bessent and then Acting Director Russell Vought. This process included, among other things, the termination of probationary and term employees and possibly another 1,300 or so employees through a reduction-in-force , the issuance of a stop work order, the closure of the CFPB's main office in DC and branch offices throughout the country, the termination of most third-party contracts, the decision not to request any additional funding from the Federal Reserve Board for the balance of the fiscal year and the voluntary dismissal of several enforcement lawsuits. Alan Kaplinsky, Senior Counsel and former chair of Ballard Spahr's Consumer Financial Services Group, and Joseph Schuster, a Partner in the Consumer Financial Services Group, discuss each part of the preliminary injunction issued by Judge Jackson which, among other things, required the CFPB to re-hire all probationary and term employees who had been terminated, prohibited the CFPB from terminating any CFPB employee except for just cause (which apparently does not include lack of work because of the change in focus and direction of the CFPB), required the CFPB not to enforce a previous “stop work” order or reduction-in-force. We observed that Judge Jackson's order has required the CFPB to maintain for now a work force that is not needed for the “new” CFPB. We also discuss that the preliminary injunction order does not require the CFPB to maintain any of the regulations promulgated or proposed by Rohit Chopra or to continue to prosecute any of the enforcement lawsuits brought by Director Chopra. DOJ filed a notice of appeal on March 29 and on March 31 filed a motion in the DC Court of Appeals to stay Judge Jackson's order. (After the recording of this podcast, the DOJ filed in the Court of Appeals a motion seeking a stay of Judge Jackson's order. Pending a hearing on April 9th, the Court issued an administrative stay of Judge Jackson's order. The 3-Judge panel is composed of two Trump appointees and one Obama appointee.) A copy of the blog co-authored by Alan and Joseph is linked here. We also discuss another lawsuit initiated by the City of Baltimore and one other plaintiff against Acting Director Vought in Federal District Court for the District of Maryland seeking to enjoin him from returning to the Federal Reserve Board or the Treasury funds held by the CFPB. The Court denied the motion for preliminary injunction on the basis that it was not ripe for adjudication under the Administrative Procedure Act because the CFPB never actually returned any funds. Finally, Alan expresses surprise that the Acting Director has not relied on the argument that all funds received by the CFPB after September, 2022 were unlawfully obtained because the Dodd-Frank Act stipulates that the CFPB can be funded only out of “combined earnings of the Federal Reserve Banks” and the fact that there have only been huge combined losses of the Federal Reserve Banks since Sept 2022 which continue through today and are likely to continue through the foreseeable future.
Today's guest had one of the best track records last year in forecasting key economic indicators like rates of inflation and unemployment.Now that we have a new Administration in place, one aggressively deploying disruptive economic policy changes, where does she see the key indicators heading from here?To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury.Anna is concerned that the decelerating economy is at risk of becoming a slow-motion train wreck, which the recent Liberation Day slew of new tariffs will only exacerbate. It wouldn't surprise her to see the S&P lose an additional 30% of its market value from here as the year continues.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
Today's podcast show features a discussion with David Dayen, executive editor of the American Prospect, which is an online magazine about ideas, politics, and power. He's the author of “Chain of Title: How Three Ordinary Americans Uncovered Wall Street's Great Foreclosure Fraud,” which was published in 2016. David has written and published about 10 or so articles in which he chronicles in great detail the apparent effort by the Trump Administration, acting through Scott Bessent and Russell Vought, to dismantle the CFPB by abruptly ordering a cessation of all activities and layoffs of probationary and term employees and a plan to layoff 1,300 or so additional employees. Because this plan would have crippled the CFPB, two lawsuits were initiated in rapid fashion against Acting Director Vought seeking to enjoin him from pursuing this strategy. One lawsuit was brought by the two labor unions representing CFPB employees and others in the I.S. District Court for the District of Columbia and got assigned to Judge Amy Berman Jackson. The second lawsuit was brought by the City of Baltimore and others in the U.S. District Coury for the District of Maryland. David describes in detail the case pending before Judge Jackson, including the hearings at which several CFPB employees testified. Those employees painted a very grim picture of the effort to shut down the agency. The DOJ lawyer stated that there was never an intent to shut down the CFPB and that the steps taken by the Acting Directors to “freeze” the CFPB were similar to steps taken by any new Administration in order to provide time to evaluate the situation and decide what changes should be made to reflect the new Administration's policy objectives. Shortly after the recording of this podcast, Judge Jackson issued on March 28 a 112-page opinion and 3-page order in which she required the reinstatement with back pay of all CFPB employees that had been terminated, enjoined the CFPB from terminating any employees except for good cause related to the individual employee, fully maintain the consumer complaint portal, ordered the defendants to reinstate all third-party contracts which had been earlier terminated, ordered the defendants to not enforce a February 10 stop-work order and required that the CFPB not destroy any records. The defendants have filed a notice of appeal to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. On March 29. On March 31, the defendants filed a motion in the Court of Appests to stay Judge Jackson's order. See this blog for more detail about Judge Jackson's opinion. Because of the importance of Judge Jackson's opinion, Alan Kaplinsky and Joseph Schuster have recorded a special (additional) podcast show, where we dissected Judge Jackson's opinion and order and the other lawsuit brought by the City of Baltimore against Acting Director, Russell Vought, challenging his consideration of returning operating finds to the Federal Reserve Board or Treasury. That podcast will be released tomorrow, Friday, April 4. The Judge in the City of Baltimore case, in which the plaintiffs had not established nearly as complete a record as the case before Judge Jackson, denied the motion for a preliminary injunction based on the Court's belief that there was no final order which could be challenged under the Administrative Procedure Act. We also discussed the possibility that Congress could subject the CFPB to funding through Congressional appropriations by putting such language in the Budget Reconciliation bill which can be enacted by a simple majority and not 60 votes in the Senare. Alan Kaplinsky, former Chair for 25 years and now Senior Counsel of the Consumer Financial Services Group, hosts the discussion.
Ilyce Glink, owner of Think Glink Media and Best Money Moves, joins Lisa Dent to discuss buy now, pay later (BNPL) services. Then, Glink reviews the statement by the head of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd and explains how the price of housing is projected to […]
Steve Forbes offers some key questions that Fed Chair Jerome Powell should be asked after next week's Federal Reserve Board meeting.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Frank Lad is a mathematician, author, and an educator. Perhaps he was destined to have a full career in mathematics and science. His parents met as postdocs at the University of Chicago while working on The Manhattan Project, his mother collaborating with James Franck there. His specialty in mathematical probability took him to France and Italy, where he has worked with followers of Bruno de Finetti's ideas. Personal travels in India, Africa, Europe, Brazil, and some far East, have allowed him to deeply explore culture, history, and philosophy. For the past 26 years and currently, Lad has served as a research associate in mathematics and statistics at University of Canterbury in New Zealand, having lectured there previously for ten years. He had started his career teaching economics at the University of Utah, and spent a year in the Special Studies section of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Washington, D.C. He has been a visiting scholar at the State University of New York (Albany) in Mathematics and Economics, and at the Institute for Advanced Study at the University of Bologna in Statistics. He had been a research assistant at the Center for Studies in Population Planning, University of Michigan School of Public Health during graduate studies. He is the author of two published books, JUST PLAIN WRONG: The dalliance of quantum theory with the defiance of Bell's inequality (Austin Macauley, 2024) and Operational Subjective Statistical Methods: a mathematical, philosophical, and historical introduction (John Wiley, 1996). Lad speaks four languages: English, French, Italian, and Hindustani. Born and raised in Cleveland, Ohio into a large family of nine children, he is a dual citizen of the United States and New Zealand. He currently resides in NZ, tending his garden and tutoring neighborhood children in arithmetic. Our focus today is Frank's book - Just Plain Wrong: The Dalliance of Quantum Theory with the Defiance of Bell's Inequality. Great information! So much to learn! Please share. Before you go... You could help support this podcast by Buying Me A Coffee. Not really buying me something to drink but clicking on the link on my home page at https://stevenmiletto.com for Buy Me a Coffee or by going to this link Buy Me a Coffee. This would allow you to donate to help the show address the costs associated with producing the podcast from upgrading gear to the fees associated with producing the show. That would be cool. Thanks for thinking about it. Hey, I've got another favor...could you share the podcast with one of your friends, colleagues, and family members? Hmmm? What do you think? Thank you! You are AWESOME! Connect & Learn More: Just Plain Wrong - Amazon Length - 59:10
Send us a textTaegan Goddard is the founder and editor of Political Wire, one of the most widely-read political news sites over the last 25+ years. He created Political Wire in the late 1990s after stints as a Senate staffer on Capitol Hill and several years in state government in his home state of Connecticut. In this conversation, he talks his own development as a rabid political junkie, setting out early goals in the public and private sector, both encouraging and disheartening stints in government, why he decided against running for office, and starting Political Wire initially as a hobby - which has now grown into a site that is a regular stop for 10+ million readers a month. To become a paid subscriber to Political Wire to see additional content and no ads, click here.IN THIS EPISODEGrowing up as a young political junkie in Hartford, CT...Taegan runs across an early version of the internet in the 1980s...The British politician who had an important important on the structure of Taegan's life...Important lessons working for the Senate Banking Chair, Michigan Democrat Don Riegle, on Capitol Hill...Highs and lows of working for Governor Lowell Weicker and others in CT state government...Why time working in state government made Taegan forgo an early desire to run for office himself...The core lesson of his book for elected officials, You Won, Now What?, that stands the test of time...The origin story of the Political Wire news website, which goes back 3+ decades...When Taegan realized Political Wire had found an audience and developed staying power...How Taegan has maintained and grown his audience in the tumultuous space of internet political sites...Taegan's sense of how important and history-making our current era of politics is...Taegan's most effective work tool & favorite non-political website...AND Spiro Agnew, David Bradley, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton's best friend, Congressional Quarterly, Charlie Cook, Al D'Amato, dark horse campaigns, the Federal Reserve Board, Joe Ganim, Newt Gingrich, Michael Heseltine, the Keating 5, John Kerry, Merck, nattering nabobs, The New Republic, Ross Perot, reader freakouts, Robert Redford, Chris Riback, Joe Rogan, Stu Rothenberg, John Rowland, William Safire, Ben Thompson, Chuck Todd, Donald Trump, the Wall Street Journal, yellow legal pads...& more!
The zealously anti-regulatory Trump is back and anti-corruption activist Frank Vogl is very worried. Vogl warns that MAGA's increasingly deregulated America financial landscape could make the 2008 crash look like a minor bump in the economic road. With Trump putting the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act on "pause" and DOGE kingpin Elon Musk openly dreaming of turning X into a bank, we're watching traditional financial regulation shrivel to the minimal levels of Calvin Coolidge's 1920's. Meanwhile, Melania is launching crypto tokens, Putin's kleptocracy has been legitimized by the Ukraine “peace” negotiations, and the increasingly unaccountable banks are begging to gamble with our money again. What could possibly go wrong? Here are the five KEEN ON takeaways from this conversation with Frank Vogl:* Financial Deregulation Concerns - Frank Vogl warns that Trump's administration is actively dismantling financial regulations, including pausing the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and weakening the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. He fears this deregulation could lead to a financial crisis potentially worse than 2008.* Three-Pronged Financial Risk - Vogl identifies three interconnected areas of concern:* Traditional banks seeking reduced capital requirements and fewer restrictions* Unregulated expansion of Silicon Valley firms (like X/Twitter) into banking* The growing crypto market and its potential for money laundering and speculation* Regulatory Enforcement Weakening - The Trump administration is systematically weakening regulatory agencies by appointing anti-regulation leaders and reducing staff (e.g., the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation lost 500 staff). This reduction in oversight capacity could enable financial abuse and fraud.* International Corruption Implications - The suspension of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and potential lifting of Russian sanctions could create a vacuum in global anti-corruption enforcement, as no other country (including the UK or Switzerland) is positioned to take over America's leadership role in fighting international financial crime.* Big Tech and Government Contracts - There's growing concern about the relationship between the Trump administration and tech leaders, not just for potential government contracts but also for their control of media platforms. Vogl argues this could be problematic for democracy if proper procurement and transparency processes aren't followed.FULL TRANSCRIPT: Frank Vogl Warns of a New Financial Crisis Under Trump 2.0Interview with Frank Vogl February 16, 2025Two months into Donald Trump's second presidency, financial corruption expert Frank Vogl returns to Keen On to discuss the dismantling of America's financial regulatory system and its potential consequences. Vogl, co-founder of Transparency International and author of "The Enablers: How the West Supports Kleptocrats and Corruption, Endangering Our Democracy," warns of parallels to both the 1920s and 2008 financial crisis, but with new digital-age complications.Andrew Keen: Hello, everybody. It is Sunday, February 16th, 2025. A couple of years ago, we did a show with my old friend Frank Vogl on the global fight against corruption. He is the author of "The Enablers: How the West Supports Kleptocrats and Corruption, Endangering Our Democracy" and co-founder of Transparency International, a nonprofit focused on exposing financial corruption. Last year, we had Frank back to discuss whether Donald Trump 2.0 would be what we called a semi-legal repeat of the Sam Bankman-Fried FTX debacle. Now, almost two months into the Trump regime, I'd like to revisit this question. Frank, you have an interesting new piece out in The Globalist about Trump-style U.S. financial deregulation and its global ramifications. Is it as bad as we feared?Frank Vogl: Yes, it's good to be with you, Andrew. We are in danger of developments that could lead to a financial crisis in a few years' time, potentially worse than the 2008 financial crisis. That crisis led to massive unemployment and economic hardship, not just in the U.S. but across the world. It was caused by wild speculation, greed, and mismanagement by fewer than two dozen financial institutions, many of which were bailed out. Now, thanks to what Trump and Elon Musk are doing, we're setting the stage for a new era of financial deregulation with all the risks that involves.Andrew Keen: It's chilling. Frank, I wonder about the historical parallels. Some people have made much of Trump's interest in McKinley's presidency, colonialism, and Latin America. But I wonder whether we're really returning to the 1920s and the unconstrained speculative capitalism of the Coolidge, Harding, and Hoover era. Are there historical analogies here? The teapot scandal and unregulated capitalism of the '20s resulted in the great crash.Frank Vogl: Yes, that's true. But we should remember it led to a new era of regulation - the establishment of the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulatory bodies focused on ensuring financial institutions didn't have excessive power. What we're facing now is not only the prospect of excessive power by financial institutions but a much more complicated array of financial institutions. Take Elon Musk, who unquestionably wants to enter the financial arena by operating his own quasi-bank.Andrew Keen: He's always been clear about that - he's said X will ultimately be a bank among other things.Frank Vogl: What we're seeing now is not only the possibility of bank deregulation, but also the emergence of a whole new unregulated system of finance from Silicon Valley. Add to that the complete mayhem of gambling, greed, corruption, and money laundering associated with crypto tokens. Put all of that together and you have a dangerous situation that could affect the global economy.Andrew Keen: Some might say you're overreacting. A Silicon Valley entrepreneur friend who was on the show yesterday argued that the Biden administration, particularly figures like Lina Khan, was stifling innovation. They'd say Trump's people are just letting innovators innovate, with Musk as a prime example. How would you respond to that?Frank Vogl: I disagree when it comes to finance. Let me explain. Our government essentially has two components: the administrative state, where government departments monitor and implement programs and projects, and the regulatory state, where agencies protect American citizens in health, consumer safety, and finance. First and foremost, we need a safe and sound financial system. Everyone benefits from that. We have a healthy financial system right now - just look at the stock market. It could be improved, but let's not demolish it. The profits of the biggest banks in 2024 were at record levels. Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan Chase, took home a record $39 million in compensation. The head of Goldman Sachs got an $80 million bonus.Andrew Keen: Which in Silicon Valley terms isn't that much money, certainly compared to the Musks and others of this world.Frank Vogl: My point is that banks are the bedrock of our financial system. The people at the top are being compensated better than ever before. So what are they campaigning for? What are they supporting Trump on? They're arguing for the kind of deregulation that Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve Board president, warned would be dangerous.Andrew Keen: My understanding of the 2008 crash was that banks took advantage of vulnerable consumers and lent them money they shouldn't have borrowed, creating the subprime mortgage crisis that crashed the economy. What do bankers want to do in 2025 that, in your view, they shouldn't be allowed to do?Frank Vogl: You're right about what happened, but also many financial institutions borrowed enormous sums. They leveraged their basic resources to speculate on complicated derivative financial instruments. They were essentially gambling. As Chuck Prince, who ran Citigroup, said, "We have to keep dancing as long as the music is playing."Andrew Keen: Capitalism is about dancing, Frank. It's about taking risk, isn't it?Frank Vogl: To some degree, but when you have an institution like JPMorgan Chase with over $4 trillion in assets, you have to think hard about its mission. That mission fundamentally is to serve customers, not just the top executives. Let them get rich at the top, but let them be prudent and maintain integrity. Trump and Musk have no time for that. Let me give you one example: Trump recently announced we're no longer going to investigate international and corporate corruption. He put the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act on pause.Andrew Keen: Yes, that was February 10th. Quoting from whitehouse.gov: "Pausing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act enforcement to further American economic and national security," whatever that means.Frank Vogl: The act was signed by Jimmy Carter in 1977. The largest single fines ever paid for foreign bribery were by Goldman Sachs - nearly $4 billion globally, with $1.6 billion to the U.S. alone. Now we're ending investigations of exactly the kind of activity that made Goldman Sachs very profitable. We're ending all manner of fraud investigation in finance. Take another example: last week, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was essentially shuttered. A judge ruled it should continue, but Trump's appointees ensure it has minimal resources to investigate. The CFPB investigates banks that commit fraud against regular customers. Remember what Wells Fargo did? The CFPB caught them, and they paid major fines.Andrew Keen: How does all this add up to a financial crisis? The CFPB situation is troubling, but why should this cause the whole system to collapse?Frank Vogl: Let's look at this in three components: banks, digital finance, and crypto. Starting with banks - they're lobbying hard for reduced capital requirements, meaning less money in reserve for crises. They want fewer regulations on how they use their money so they can speculate on their own account. Why? Because banks' short-term profits determine the bankers' compensation. Their bonuses are tied to those profits.Andrew Keen: So if banks are allowed to gamble aggressively, that's great if they win, but if they lose, we all lose. Is that the argument? Then we have to bail them out again?Frank Vogl: That's part of it. The other concern is that as some banks lose, they may get merged into other banks until you have just a handful of enormous banks that can never fail. If they were to fail, our economy would fail. The moral hazard is that banks know when they take huge risks, they'll be bailed out. Now add to this all these quasi-banking systems from Silicon Valley - PayPal, Venmo, Apple Pay. And X recently announced a deal with Visa on payment systems, just the first step to creating X Financial.Andrew Keen: You're sounding a bit reactionary, maybe alarmist. What's wrong with PayPal? It's simply a digital system for people to buy stuff.Frank Vogl: You're right, it's fine the way it is today. But what if these entities are allowed to take deposits and make loans, doing everything banks do, all online? Who's regulating that? Where's the safety?Andrew Keen: But where's the evidence that the Trump administration will allow PayPal or X or Apple Pay to become banks without traditional regulations? From a traditional banking perspective, I'd assume Jamie Dimon and his peers would fight this because it undermines them.Frank Vogl: We're seeing an administration tearing the system apart. Look at each regulatory agency - Trump has put people in charge with long histories of opposing regulation. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation just lost 500 staff through "voluntary resignations." When you reduce regulatory enforcement and investigation, you open the door to abuse. History shows that when there's opportunity for abuse, abuse happens. I hope your optimism about Silicon Valley's ability to manage complicated finance is justified, but I'm skeptical.Andrew Keen: So you're saying Apple or X or PayPal shouldn't be able to be banks, even with traditional banking regulations?Frank Vogl: No, that would be fine. But who's going to regulate it? Do you see Trump proposing to Congress that a brand new regulatory agency be established for this kind of finance? That's not how the Trump team thinks. Just look at crypto.Andrew Keen: Yes, let's look at crypto. Melania Trump launched her own cryptocurrency - it's an enormous speculative bubble, like the tulip speculation. Last week, both Donald and Melania Trump's crypto tokens plummeted. Someone's profiting, someone's losing. How important is this to the broader economy? Is it just another sideshow, another way for the Trump family to get rich while we lose?Frank Vogl: It's contained at the moment. The whole crypto token business is perhaps $3-4 trillion in size - very small in terms of global finance. But I worry about an administration with strong conflicts of interest developing this kind of rapid gambling speculation. Most people invested in crypto are young, between 18 and 35. Many don't have experience with past financial crises.Andrew Keen: And there's a clear difference between using PayPal to buy something online and investing in crypto. One is entirely speculative, one is just a financial transaction.Frank Vogl: Do you really think Elon Musk's X Financial will be satisfied just being a rival to PayPal's payment system? Or does he have bigger ambitions to turn X Financial into something much more like a bank?Andrew Keen: I think he does, but...Frank Vogl: And then comes the question: who is going to regulate this?Andrew Keen: Musk himself? That's a joke. Although at the moment, there's no concrete evidence. X is still struggling for survival as just a social media platform.Frank Vogl: Look, I may sound pessimistic, but I'm only talking about the potential. There's very little public attention on what's happening with financial deregulation, as I wrote in The Globalist. The impact could be substantial. When you have this complete dismantling of the FCPA, other fraud investigations, the removal of inspectors general - the whole dismantling of the government's apparatus for accountability and transparency - then you have to worry about mounting financial risk in our system.Andrew Keen: Let's return to crypto. When does crypto become dangerous? If it becomes a rival to the dollar? At what point do we start worrying that a crypto crisis could become a broader financial crisis?Frank Vogl: I don't worry about that actually. I worry about the conflicts of interest - Trump and his children and cronies all making money from deregulating crypto. I think crypto will remain a sideshow for a long time. But I'm considerably worried about money laundering. With a Justice Department that's stopped investigating financial crimes, and a cryptocurrency system free of regulation - something Trump has promised - organized crime and kleptocrats worldwide will be able to hide their ill-gotten gains and transfer them between countries. That's worrying in itself, even if it doesn't cause a global financial meltdown.Andrew Keen: I wonder if there's another dimension to Trump's upcoming meeting with Putin in Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine. There's what one author called "KGB-style capitalism" - the mass laundering of illegal wealth. How much does Trump's eagerness to bring Putin back into the international system have financial ramifications?Frank Vogl: Putin and the oligarchs, Lukashenko in Belarus and his cronies, the former oligarchs of Ukraine who made their money with Russia - all these people have been sanctioned since the war started in February 2022. We're approaching the third anniversary. Putin really wants those sanctions lifted to restore global money laundering and financial crime opportunities. This might be leverage in a deal.Andrew Keen: Can Trump get away with that politically in D.C.? If he pulls the sanctions card to establish what he'd call a Ukrainian peace - really a peace imposed by America on Ukraine - will mainstream Republicans accept that?Frank Vogl: They seem to accept everything today. Trump seems to get away with an awful lot. But I'd like to return to something earlier - there needs to be more public attention on the dismantling of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. To use a new word in the vocabulary, it has been "Musked." The CFPB, like USA Today, has been Musked. Musk and Trump have weaponized their authority to dismantle these institutions. We'll see it at the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. When you weaponize authority, you monetize power. This is where the conflict of interest comes in. Unfortunately, Congress isn't alert to these developments.Andrew Keen: In a broader international sense, I've always understood that American law is more aggressive than the UK's. Oliver Pollock, who's been on the show, wrote "Butler to the World" about the corrupt British system that invites dirty money from overseas, particularly Russia. Given that Trump is demanding half of Ukraine's mineral resources, could this Trump revolution undermine America's role in standing up to dirty money, both domestically and overseas?Frank Vogl: It might undermine it, but there's no authority anywhere to replace it. The U.S. Justice Department did a fantastic job investigating cryptocurrencies, crypto finance, and bribery of foreign government officials - not just by U.S. companies but by many companies worldwide with U.S. listings, like Airbus Industries. There's no authority in Europe willing to take on that task. So we leave a vacuum. And who fills the vacuum? Kleptocrats, organized crime, and corrupt businesses. A Nigerian paper recently headlined that Nigerian politicians are now open to American bribes. We're being seen as permitting corruption - a terrible reputation. The Swiss or British won't suddenly become super-active in filling the roles the U.S. Justice Department has played.Andrew Keen: As The Guardian headlined today, "Elon Musk's mass government cuts could make private companies millions." We all know the famous photo from the inauguration with Zuckerberg, Bezos, Google's CEO, and Musk. Some might say, what's wrong with that? These companies are the engine of the American economy. Why shouldn't the Trump administration focus on making big American companies more profitable? Won't that make Americans wealthier too?Frank Vogl: There are two answers. First, I agree - if standard public procurement, accountability, and transparency procedures are in place, then companies winning competitive bidding should win. If these happen to be the companies you mentioned, good for them. But if contracts are given without proper bidding processes and transparency, the public loses. Second, Trump didn't embrace these people primarily for their business power - they control media. Autocrats worldwide, from Orbán to Netanyahu, ensure they have media-controlling business tycoons on their side. Trump is incredibly sensitive to publicity and has attracted these powerful media tycoons. I worry about how this media power will be used to undermine democracy and freedom of speech.Andrew Keen: What's the headline for today? Last time, we discussed whether Trump 2.0 would be a semi-legal repeat of the Sam Bankman-Fried debacle. What's the worst that can happen in this new regime?Frank Vogl: Actions are being taken, sometimes inadvertently, that undermine the safety and soundness of our financial system. If that happens, everyone - not just here at home but internationally - will suffer.Andrew Keen: So we'll get 2008 again, or 1930?Frank Vogl: I hope we get neither. But we must be acutely aware of the risks and call out all deregulatory measures if we believe they risk our system, especially when prompted by corruption and greed rather than public interest.Andrew Keen: Well, Frank Vogl, I hope you're wrong, but I suspect you may be right. This won't be the last time you appear on the show. There will be many twists and turns in the financial history of the Trump regime. Thank you so much, Frank. Keep watching in D.C. - we need eyes and ears like yours to make sense of what's happening.Frank Vogl: Andrew, it was once again a great pleasure. Thank you.Frank Vogl is the co-founder of two leading international non-governmental organizations fighting corruption -- Transparency International and the Partnership for Transparency Fund (Frank is the Chair of the PTF Board). He teaches at Georgetown University, writes regular "blog" articles on corruption for theGlobalist.com and lectures extensively. Frank is also a specialist in international economics and finance with more than 50 years of experience in these fields - first as an international journalist, then as the Director of Information & Public Affairs at the World Bank official and, from 1990 to 2017, as the president and CEO of a consulting firm, Vogl Communications Inc.Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting the daily KEEN ON show, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy interview series. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Tom Pappenfus Dave Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 27-31) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday The Commerce Department reported a 4% gain in the annual rate of new home sales in December. Sales were up almost 7% from the year before and just below where they were heading into the COVID-19 pandemic. For perspective, the pace of sales - 698,000 a year – was half the peak rate in mid-2005 and represented about one-seventh of all home sales. The median sales price rose 2% from the year before to $427,000. Tuesday The Commerce Department said durable goods orders declined again in December, the fourth setback in five months, led by commercial aircraft. Compared to the year before, long-lasting factory orders were down 1.5% after shrinking 2.2% for the month. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.3% and were up 1.4% from the end of 2023. A proxy for business investment gained 0.5% from November and was up 0.6% from December 2023. Housing prices increased again in November, rising 3.8% from the year before, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. The gain compared to a 3.6% year-to-year advance in October, marking the first acceleration in nine months. Since 1988, the average 12-month increase had been 2.7%, although it averaged 5.2% since 2000. Housing costs continued to outpace overall inflation, which reached 2.9% in December, based on the Consumer Price Index. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in December for the second month in a row, keeping toward the lower end of a sideways range that began in 2022. The business research group said its gauge sank broadly from November, led by a drop in attitudes toward labor conditions. Consumer responses avoided a measure historically tied to impending recession. Economists follow consumer confidence because consumer spending drives 70% of U.S. economic activity. Wednesday No major releases Thursday The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 3.1% in the previous three months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the deceleration in gross domestic product was led largely by a drop in business investments. Consumer spending rose at a 4.2% annual rate, the fastest since the first quarter of 2023. Government spending and a decrease in imports also boosted fourth-quarter growth. Also slowing: Inventories, federal spending and residential spending. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 and adjusting for inflation, GDP rose 2.5% in 2024, down from 3.8% the year before. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth time in five weeks. The average was 41% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department said 2.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down more than 1% from the week before but 9% higher than the same time in 2023. An early indicator of home sales declined in December after four months of gains. The National Association of Realtors' index of pending home sales dropped 5.5% from November and was down 5% from December 2023. The trade group said more home buyers are using cash, partly offsetting the deterrent of relatively high mortgage rates. At 74.2, the index of pending sales was more than 25% below what the association considers normal sales volume at the current population level. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending jumped 0.7% in December, the most since March and outpacing a 0.4% increase in personal income. Consumer spending is the driving force in gross domestic product, so the gain was another sign of economic resilience. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Federal Reserve Board follows for inflation, rose 2.6% from December 2023,
Today's podcast episode is a repurposing of Alan Kaplinsky's “fireside chat” with Kathy Kraninger, the Director of the CFPB during the second half of President Trump's presidency from December 2018 until January 2021. (This was originally the first half of a webinar we did on January 6, 2025 which was entitled “The Impact of the Election on the CFPB - Supervision and Enforcement.” The January 6 webinar is Part 2 of a 3-part series. Next Thursday, we will release the second half of that webinar which will feature Ballard Spahr partners, John Culhane and Mike Kilgariff, who will take a deep dive into the expected changes in CFPB supervision and enforcement during President Trump's second term in office.) During her “fireside chat” with Alan, Kathy discussed the following things: (a) How she was nominated by Trump to be the Director and succeeded Mick Mulvaney, the acting Director appointed by Trump to succeed Richard Cordray as Acting Director; (b) Organizational and other changes made by Mulvaney and/or Kraninger, including a hiring freeze, appointments of new heads of departments, etc; (c) The practical impact on CFPB operations of the Supreme Court's opinion in the Seila Law case in which the Court held that the President had the right to remove the CFPB director without cause; (d) Her priorities as Director, including her regulatory, supervisory and enforcement agendas; (e) Her policy statements on “abusiveness”, supervisory expectations and COVID-19; (g) Her thoughts on what she anticipates will change at the CFPB once a new acting director chosen by Trump succeeds Rohit Chopra; and (h) Her thoughts on whether Congress should re-structure the CFPB's governance and funding. The “fireside chat” provides stakeholders in the CFPB insight into what may happen at the CFPB during Trump 2.0. There will, however, be some important differences between the circumstances that existed during the transition from Cordray to Mulvaney Kraninger during Traump 1.0 and the transition from Chopra to a new acting Director during Trump 2.0.. At the time when Mick Mulvaney became Acting Director, there were no pending lawsuits challenging CFPB final regs and other actions. During Mulvaney's term in office, a trade association of payday lenders sued the CFPB challenging the CFPB's payday lending rule and, in particular, its “ability to pay” requirement. The acting director appointed by Trump will inherit multiple pending lawsuits against the CFPB challenging many of the regs issued by the CFPB under Rohit Chopra's last two years as Director. The Acting Director will need to develop legislative (Congressional Review Act), judicial and regulatory strategies for dealing with the slough of regs, proposed regs and other written guidance issued by Chopra. The Acting Director will also need to quickly decide what position the CFPB will take with respect to the defense raised in at least 13 enforcement lawsuits claiming that the CFPB has been disabled from conducting business since September 2022 when there was no longer any “combined earnings of the Federal Reserve Banks” - a prerequisite to the Federal Reserve Board funding the CFPB under the Dodd-Frank Act. Alan Kaplinsky, Senior Counsel and former chair for 25 years of the Consumer Financial Services Group, hosts the discussion.
You know Watergate, but do you know Fedgate? The more subtle scandal with more monetary policy and, arguably, much higher stakes.In today's episode, we listen back through the Nixon White House tapes to search for evidence of an alarming chapter in American economic history: When the President of the United States seemingly flouted the norms of Fed Independence in order to pressure the Chair of the Federal Reserve Board into decisions that were economically bad in the long run but good for Nixon's upcoming election.The tale of Nixon and his Fed Chair, Arthur Burns, has become the cautionary tale about why Fed Independence matters. That choice may have started a decade of catastrophic inflation. And Burns' story is now being invoked as President-elect Trump has explicitly said he'd like more control over the Federal Reserve.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Today's podcast episode is a repurposing of part one of our December 16 highly-attended and praised webinar consisting of Alan Kaplinsky's exclusive interview of David Silberman, who held several senior positions at the CFPB for almost 10 years under both Democratic and Republican administrations. Part two of our December 16 webinar, featuring Ballard Spahr partners John Culhane and Joseph Schuster, is to be released on January 9. They focus their attention on the impact of the election on the CFPB's regulations (final and proposed). Our December 16 webinar is the first part of our three-part intensive look at this transitional period for the CFPB. The goal of our three-part series is to help us predict what is in store for the CFPB during the next four years. As a former senior leader at the CFPB during the only other transition of the CFPB from a Democratic to a Republican administration led by former President Trump, Mr. Silberman has special insight about what is likely to happen to the CFPB during Trump 2.0. While nobody yet knows who Trump will nominate as the next CFPB director, Mr. Silberman makes the point that, of potentially greater importance, at least initially, is who Trump selects as the acting director. If what happened in Trump 1.0 is any indication, the acting director may end up serving for a lengthy period of time just like Mick Mulvaney served as acting director for a lengthy period of time before Kathy Kraninger was nominated by Trump, confirmed by the Senate and sworn-in as director. Under the Vacancy Reform Act, the acting director must be either a current senior officer of the CFPB or someone who has already been confirmed by the Senate for a different position. Among other things, Mr. Silberman addressed the following topics during his interview: 1. What were some of the first steps that Mr. Mulvaney took when he became acting director and will they be replicated by a new acting director? 2. How will a new acting director deal with the many lawsuits brought by trade groups challenging CFPB final rules issued by Director Chopra? Will there be a distinction made between final rules in which district courts have ruled on motions for preliminary injunction and those where courts have not so ruled. Will there be distinctions made between final rules where courts have granted or denied injunctive relief? Finally, will there be distinctions made between final rules mandated by Dodd-Frank and so-called discretionary rules? 3. Which final rules are still subject to being overridden by the Congressional Review Act and what are the odds of that happening with respect to any of such rules? 4. How will the new acting director deal with proposed rules as of January 20? 5. How will the new acting director deal with CFPB enforcement investigations and lawsuits initiated by Chopra, including those which arguably “push the envelope” with respect to the CFPB's jurisdiction? 6. Will the new acting director agree with many industry pundits that the CFPB has been unlawfully funded by the Federal Reserve Board since September, 2022 in light of the language in the Dodd-Frank Act which permits funding of the CFPB only out of “combined earnings of the Federal Reserve Banks” and the fact that there have been no such combined earnings since September 2022 and the likelihood that no such combined earnings are anticipated in the near future. Does this impact actions taken by the CFPB since September 2022? 7. What role, if any, will the White House play in directing or influencing CFPB policy? What impact, if any, might the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have on the CFPB? 8. Do you expect the new acting director to initiate any rulemakings other than those required by Dodd-Frank? 9. Will the new acting director be more supportive of innovation than Chopra and, if so, how will that be reflected? Alan Kaplinsky, Senior Counsel and former chair for 25 years of the Consumer Financial Services Group, hosts the discussion.
In today's podcast episode, we are joined by Raj Date, who has served in a variety of roles at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, including as the acting head of the agency and as it's first-ever Deputy Director. He recently wrote a thought-provoking article in a new online publication, Open Banker, entitled “Banks Aren't Over-Regulated, They Are Over-Supervised.” Alan Kaplinsky, Senior Counsel in Ballard Spahr's Consumer Financial Services Group, leads the discussion, and is joined by Joseph Schuster, a partner in the Group. By way of background, Mr. Date described how bankers have almost uniformly complained to him that banks are over-regulated. Mr. Date responds to these complaints in his article as follows: At the time, in the still-smoldering ruins of the financial crisis, this struck me as bizarre. Banks are the beneficiaries of an array of government privileges: subsidized leverage (through insured deposits), liquidity (through the discount window and the home loan banks), exclusive access to payment rails (both through the central bank and bank-only private networks), and even choice of law (through federal preemption). Given all that, safeguards on capital, liquidity, credit exposure, market and interest rate exposure, cybersecurity, and consumer protection seemed like a fair trade to me. More than a decade later, I realize that those bank CEOs were not exactly wrong, they were imprecise: Banks are not over-regulated, but they are — quite dramatically — over-supervised. Mr. Date makes the following points in support of his thesis that the banking industry is over-supervised: 1. Bank examination tries to cover too many areas and, as a result, sometimes fails to see the forest through the trees. 2. Bank examination obsessively focuses on process rather than substance. That focus is evidenced by the supervisors' requirements that the banks document everything. 3. It takes far too long for banks to receive examination reports after exams are completed, sometimes years later. The final exam reports are often anachronistic. 4. Bank examinations often stultify bank innovation because supervisors' examinations are often critical of banks offering new products and services and this results in bank management being reluctant to innovate out of fear that they will be downgraded. 5. Examiners' focus on process rather than risk itself has resulted in a bank management brain drain. Mr. Date then explains how the examination process should be changed. Mr. Date first calls for immediate changes even though the banking industry is largely thriving. Mr. Date suggests the following approach in his article and during the podcast: The regulatory agencies are, probably justifiably, proud of their long histories of public service. But that pride breeds cultures that are strikingly conservative and resistant to change. As importantly, unlike private sector firms, they do not have the crucible of a profit imperative to burn away unproductive practices and orthodoxies. And it shows. It is not as though bank examiners cannot articulate the most important issues facing their regulated charges; it is just that they often just have no reason to stop working on things other than the most important issues. The only solution is strong top-down leadership that imposes ambitious goals. Without stretch goals that will feel strikingly out of reach at the outset, real change will not be possible. If it were me, I would set out, in a pilot with a handful of mid-sized banks, to structure a supervisory exam strategy that costs 75% less (in combined bank and agency costs) and is 75% faster from first-day letter to final report than today's norms.[9] I would embrace pilot uses of new technology tools in pursuit of those goals. And then I would iterate on those initial (almost certainly unsuccessful) results. This will be difficult, and even painful. But I very much believe it will be worth it. While acknowledging the issues with over-supervision, Joseph directs significant attention to the problem of over-regulation. He argues that modern regulatory practices have become more complex, restrictive, and less clear, creating barriers to innovation and access to credit. Joseph highlights how over-regulation stifles the development and availability of consumer finance products. Joseph explains how products like "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) face regulatory hurdles despite addressing consumer needs effectively. Joseph also discusses the potential negative impact of proposed changes to late fee regulations, warning that such measures could limit access to credit and push consumers toward higher-cost alternatives. Joseph criticizes the heavy-handed approach taken by regulators, such as the CFPB's issuance of circulars, which adds further uncertainty and complexity for institutions attempting to innovate in this space. Joseph advocates for a return to a more structured and transparent regulatory framework. He suggests that agencies recommit to the principles of the Administrative Procedures Act (APA), emphasizing the importance of notice-and-comment rulemaking. Drawing parallels to the Federal Reserve Board's process during the implementation of the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility, and Disclosure (CARD) Act, Joseph argues that meaningful engagement with the industry could lead to clearer regulations that balance consumer protection with innovation and operational feasibility. Joseph endorses Raj Date's call for clear and focused priorities in the supervisory process, and emphasizes that both banks and examiners benefit from a more straightforward understanding of the rules. Joseph concludes by warning against the trend of "regulation through enforcement," which undermines transparency and predictability, ultimately harming consumers and financial institutions alike.
PREVIEW: FEDERAL RESERVE Colleague Elizabeth Peek analyzes Wall Street's expectations for Jerome Powell's Fed leadership and implications for the incoming Trump administration. More later. 1927 Federal Reserve Board
Dive into the complexities of RESPA compliance with Marx Sterbcow as he unpacks the regulatory challenges shaping the title and real estate industry. From affiliated business arrangements to the ongoing evolution of compliance, this episode offers everything you need to succeed in today's intricate regulatory landscape. What you'll learn from this episode The critical role of transparency and accuracy in affiliated business disclosure forms How industry consolidation is reshaping the title and real estate markets Why engaging with regulators builds trust and fosters compliance Emerging trends in technology and AI enforcement in regulatory actions Strategies to mitigate risks associated with marketing arrangements and social media oversights Resources mentioned in this episode Respro® October Research United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) Freddie Mac Fannie Mae Townstone Financial National Association of REALTORS® Compass Berkshire Hathaway Keller Williams RE/MAX CoStar Apartments.com LoopNet The Firm by John Grisham | Paperback, Hardcover, and Kindle No Good Deed Goes Unpunished by E. James Harrison | Paperback and Kindle About Marx Sterbcow Marx is the Managing Attorney in the New Orleans-based law firm, Sterbcow Law Group LLC. Sterbcow's practice focuses on RESPA, TILA & Regulation Z, UDAAP, Fair Lending Act, federal and state mortgage lending and consumer credit compliance issues, real estate brokerage programs, affiliated business arrangements, marketing and promotional program guidance, licensing, and lead generation compliance matters. He also represents clients in connection with mortgage fraud, RESPA, and other administrative enforcement actions. Marx graduated from Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana, with a bachelor's degree in history and political science, Gonzaga University School of Law in Spokane, Washington, with a J.D., and the John Marshall School of Law's Center for Real Estate Law in Chicago, Illinois, with an LLM. Marx represented the National Association of Mortgage Brokers in its efforts to challenge the Federal Reserve Board on its Regulation Z loan officer compensation rule. He serves on the Regulatory & Policy Committee for the Real Estate Services Providers Council (RESPRO) and is active in the Mortgage Bankers Association, American Land Title Association, Louisiana Land Title Association (Vice President 2014-15), New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Title Attorneys (Vice President) and the National Association of Mortgage Brokers. He is a frequent speaker at industry conferences. Connect with Marx Website: Sterbcow Law Group LinkedIn: Marx Sterbcow Connect With Us Love what you're hearing? Don't miss an episode! Follow us on our social media channels and stay connected. Explore more on our website: www.alltechnational.com/podcast Stay updated with our newsletter: www.mochoumil.com Follow Mo on LinkedIn: Mo Choumil
The last time today's expert was on the program back in July, she was concerned about rising unemployment. Is she still as worried about it as we prepare to enter a new year with a new Administration taking over? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #economy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
PREVIEW: DOGE: Colleague Tom Modly, former Acting Secretary of the U.S. Navy, explains that it is difficult to impossible to fire anyone in the U.S. government. More later. 1905 Federal Reserve Board
It's Tuesday, November 12th, A.D. 2024. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 125 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com. I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Kevin Swanson Brazilian homeschoolers growing despite opposition The Brazilian homeschooling movement is growing despite opposition from the leftist government of that country. Over the weekend, 3,000 homeschoolers gathered outside of Sao Paulo for a major conference and rallying point. Generations Radio and The Worldview supported the conference with speaking and resources. Reports of government prosecution of homeschooling families are on the rise, with at least twenty cases presently on record. Pray for Christian families under this spiritual and political push back. Psalm 78:5-6 encourages parents that God has “established a testimony in Jacob, and appointed a law in Israel, which He commanded our fathers, that they should make them known to their children; that the generation to come might know them, the children who would be born, that they may arise and declare them to their children.” German government collapsed last week Only hours after Trump's announced election last week, the national government of Germany collapsed. The multi-party based government was tenuous to begin with, but when Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the government lost its majority in parliament. The government has also lost support from the populace. According to a recent survey, only 3% of the people called the present government “good for Germany.” Germany's economy shrinks as families have fewer babies Germany is the fourth largest economy in the world after the United States, the European Union, and China. Interestingly, Germany was the only economy of the Group of 7 nations to shrink last year. Thus far this year, the country is barely holding onto a 0.1% annual Gross Domestic Product increase based on data from the first three quarters. In addition, industrial production has been steadily decreasing since 2018. Germany's working age population will decrease more than every other G7 nation over the next five years due to low birth rates. Catholic Latino support for Trump doubled between ‘20 and ‘24 The Republicans gained more ground cultivating support from the Latino Catholic vote than any other major demographic in the 2024 presidential election. Trump support among Catholic Latinos increased from 28% in 2020 to 53% in 2024 — almost double! Support from the Catholic demographic in general for the Donald Trump presidential bid actually increased from 47% to 58% between 2020 and 2024. Republicans win U.S. House According to Decision Desk HQ, the Republicans won control of the U.S. House with 219 seats over the Democrats with 210 seats. 218 seats are necessary for a majority. Eric Metaxas: Pastors don't understand the times Pastor John Piper sparked a little controversy among Christian websites when he commented on the presidential election, noting that “[God] having delivered us from one evil, [He] now tests us with another.” The pastor referenced Deuteronomy 13:3, not to listen “to the words of that prophet or that dreamer of dreams. For the LORD your God is testing you, to know whether you love the LORD your God with all your heart and with all your soul.” Citing 1 Chronicles 12:32, Christian commentator Eric Metaxas responded by saying, “Shame on these pastors for not being Sons of Issachar, but rather modern day Pharisees and Sadducees, not knowing Truth from a lie. Lord, deliver us from them.” Evangelical theologians discuss presidential election, pro-life movement Other leading evangelical theologians have commented on the election as well. Carl Trueman wrote that he “would be horrified if my children behaved as either of our two serious presidential candidates routinely do. The choice is a grim, but unavoidable one. ... Vote against the candidate who will do the most damage by policy.” And Albert Mohler, president of Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, opined that “the pro-life movement in the United States is in big, big trouble” based on recent losses at the ballot box. But he also said, “I'm thankful for the clarity that the American people achieved for the Republic. I think the choice, in this case, (for President) was also healthy for the Republic.” Trump appointed Rep. Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to United Nations President-elect Trump has appointed GOP Congresswoman Elise Stefanik of New York as the next Ambassador to the United Nations, reports ABC News. Stefanik has a 48% conservative voting record on Liberty Score. That compares to Rand Paul's 93% on the same rating. Stefanik voted to codify same-sex mirage into federal law back in 2022, and was in favor of the female draft in 2021. Federal Reserve cut reserve rate again The U.S. Federal Reserve Board voted to cut the reserve rate by another 25 basis points late last week. That follows a 50 basis point cut in September. The rate was just about 0% in January of 2022, at which point the Fed began increasing the rate all the way up to 5.33%. Trump election impacting market And finally, cryptocurrency prices shot up after the Trump election last week. Bitcoin is scraping $88,000. Gold dropped slightly from the $2,740 per ounce to the $2,670-per-ounce range. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq stock indexes bumped up about 5% since the election. Close And that's The Worldview on this Tuesday, November 12th, in the year of our Lord 2024. Subscribe by Amazon Music or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com. Or get the Generations app through Google Play or The App Store. I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.
Synopsis: Rob Williamson, CEO of Triumvira, joins Biotech 2050 host, Rahul Chaturvedi, to discuss his dynamic career from economics to biotech, tackling the volatile capital markets, and navigating high-stakes decisions in cell therapy. He shares insights on therapeutic developments in cell therapy, the pressures of solid tumor research, and the evolving biotech ecosystem. A deep dive into biotech board dynamics, funding strategies, and the potential of AI in healthcare, Rob offers invaluable lessons and forward-thinking perspectives on life sciences and patient care innovation. Biography: Robert F. Williamson, III has been active in building biotechnology companies and shareholder value for over two decades. He currently is the President and COO of Triumvira Immunologics. Previously, he was the CBO of OncoMyx, an oncolytic virus company, and CEO of BioTheryX, a protein degradation therapeutics company, raising a $100M crossover round and preparing the company for an IPO. Prior to BioTheryX, Mr. Williamson served as CEO of both PharmAkea and ATXCo, oncology and fibrosis companies financed through a partnership with Celgene, until PharmAkea's acquisition by Galecto and ATXCo's acquisition by Blade Therapeutics. Prior, Mr. Williamson was CEO of Arriva Pharmaceuticals, President and COO of Eos Biotechnology, which he sold to Protein Design Labs, and COO of DoubleTwist, Inc. through its acquisition by Merck and Hitachi. Mr. Williamson also serves as a director and adviser for foundations, private, and public companies. Notably, Mr. Williamson served as an early Director of Pharmasset, Inc., where he helped finance, grow, and advance the company into the public markets and through its acquisition by Gilead in 2011 for $11 billion. Earlier, Mr. Williamson was a Partner with The Boston Consulting Group and a Research Assistant for the Federal Reserve Board. He received a BA in economics from Pomona College and an MBA from Stanford.
Space Money: Report - DoD At Risk of Losing New Commercial Space Suppliers And Capabilities The Department of Commerce has just released some interesting economic indicators that lean positive, and there are expectations that the Federal Reserve Board will again lower interest rates. Despite this good news, it may be some time before new venture capital invests in space technology, leaving some companies that have capabilities the Department of Defense wants, starved for cash and at risk. Laura Winter speaks with Sam Wilson, Director, Strategy and Program Support, Center for Space Policy and Strategy, The Aerospace Corporation; and Sarah Georgin, former Project Lead, Strategic Foresight Team, The Aerospace Corporation.
The Technology Modernization Fund Board just added two new permanent members and one new alternative member. Technology leaders from the Postal Service, the Federal Reserve Board and the National Park Service join at a critical time for the TMF. For more Federal News Network's executive editor, Jason Miller, spoke with TMF executive director Larry Bafundo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The Technology Modernization Fund Board just added two new permanent members and one new alternative member. Technology leaders from the Postal Service, the Federal Reserve Board and the National Park Service join at a critical time for the TMF. For more Federal News Network's executive editor, Jason Miller, spoke with TMF executive director Larry Bafundo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In this episode of “Financial Crime Matters”, Kieran talks with ACAMS colleague, Craig Timm, Senior Director of AML at ACAMS. Craig and Kieran do a deep dive into the recent settlements by TD Bank with the US Department of Justice, the Federal Reserve Board, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network that resulted in more than $3 billion in monetary penalties, ongoing remediation and monitorships, as well as the prosecution of two bank insiders. With more individual prosecutions likely, Craig and Kieran layout the lessons for financial institutions from settlements and discuss how compliance professionals can protect themselves from culpability when their financial institutions go astray.
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The has their hands in everything, whatever they are pushing they are going to make money, its a gigantic scam. Big banks are money laundering, I thought it was Bitcoin. Massie explains the [CB] system to congress. Trump just gave a warning to the [CB], we are taking it all back, their days are over. The [DS] is panicking, the voters are seeing through their charade. Obama and Clinton are pushing people to vote for [KH], they know this will not work, so the question is why did they introduce themselves. Trump has requested military protection according to Wapo. If Trump did request it, the military is the only way forward. Trump is the commander in chief and the storm is about to hit. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/peterjhasson/status/1844461471499157961 https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1844727446089732577 Major Bank Hit with Record Fine Over Drug Cartel Money Laundering Scandal One of America's major banks has been hit with a massive fine after federal investigators said it was lax in its efforts to monitor money laundering. TD Bank will pay $1.89 billion to the Department of Justice, $123.5 million to the Federal Reserve Board, and $450 million to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to the consent order between the federal government and the bank. The bank must also pay $757 million to the Department of the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement, referred to in the consent order as FinCEN. “From fentanyl and narcotics trafficking, to terrorist financing and human trafficking, TD Bank's chronic failures provided fertile ground for a host of illicit activity to penetrate our financial system,” Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said. Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1844718223792460255 https://twitter.com/Chesschick01/status/1844390620149973034 Political/Rights https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1844530449223209412 Kamala Harris Campaign Co-Chair Gretchen Whitmer Mocks Catholic Communion With Doritos While Wearing Harris-Walz Hat in Bizarre Dominatrix Video While appearing to play-act as a dominatrix, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) participated in video that mocks the sacred Catholic ritual of a priest giving the Holy Eucharist to a parishioner at mass. The silent video shows Whitmer, wearing a Harris-Walz camo ballcap standing over a kneeling young woman, podcaster Liz Plank, and feeding her a solitary Doritos corn chip. Doritos are Kamala Harris' favorite snack. The choice to mock the Holy Eucharist with Harris' fave Doritos is surely not a coincidence. The caption to the video is about the CHIPS Act, a federal bill subsidizing computer chip manufacturing in the U.S. signed into law by Joe Biden in 2022. https://twitter.com/TimMurtaugh/status/1844449775992893861?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1844449775992893861%7Ctwgr%5E2d6e58e3944a97bf408c31efc0cc860d43445927%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2024%2F10%2Fkamala-harris-campaign-co-chair-gretchen-whitmer-mocks%2F https://twitter.com/CatholicVote/status/1844461842535678202?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1844461842535678202%7Ctwgr%5E2d6e58e3944a97bf408c31efc0cc860d43445927%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2024%2F10%2Fkamala-harris-campaign-co-chair-gretchen-whitmer-mocks%2F Source: thegatewaypundit.com
To true fans, baseball is so much more than a sport. Some call it the perfect game. Some see it as a field of dreams. A portal to another dimension. Some see it as a road to God. Others—”heathen” we might call them—find the game unutterably boring. Too confusing, too long, too nit-picky about rules.In this episode, Yankee fan John Sexton (President Emeritus of New York University and Benjamin F. Butler Professor of Law) joins Red Sox fan Evan Rosa to discuss the philosophical and spiritual aspects of baseball. John is the author of the 2013 bestselling book Baseball as a Road to God, which is based on a course he has taught at NYU for over twenty years.Image Credit: “The American National Game of Base Ball: Grand Match for the Championship at the Elysian Fields, Hoboken, N. J.” Published by Currier & Ives, 1866About John SextonJohn Sexton hasn't always been a Yankee fan. He once was a proud acolyte of Jackie Robinson and the Brooklyn Dodgers. A legal scholar by training, he served as president of New York University from 2001 through 2015. He is now NYU's Benjamin F. Butler Professor of Law and dean emeritus of the Law School, having served as dean from 1988 through 2002.He is author of Standing for Reason: The University in a Dogmatic Age (Yale University Press, 2019) and Baseball as a Road to God: Seeing Beyond the Game (Gotham Books, 2013) (with Thomas Oliphant and Peter J. Schwartz), among other books in legal studies.A fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a recipient of 24 honorary degrees, President Emeritus Sexton is past chair of the American Council on Education, the Independent Colleges of NY, the New York Academy of Science, and the Federal Reserve Board of NY.In 2016, Commonweal Magazine honored Sexton as the Catholic in the Public Square. The previous year, the Arab-American League awarded him its Khalil Gibran Spirit of Humanity Award; and the Open University of Israel gave him it's Alon Prize for “inspired leadership in the field of education.” In 2013, Citizens Union designated him as “an outstanding leader who enhances the value of New York City.”He received a BA in history and a PhD in the history of American religion from Fordham University, and a JD magna cum laude from Harvard Law School. Before coming to NYU in 1981, he clerked for Judges Harold Leventhal and David Bazelon of the DC Circuit and Chief Justice Warren Burger.He married Lisa Goldberg in 1976. Their two children are Jed and Katie Sexton. And their grandchildren are Julia, Ava, and Natalie.Production NotesThis podcast featured John SextonEdited and Produced by Evan RosaHosted by Evan RosaProduction Assistance by Alexa Rollow, Emily Brookfield, Kacie Barrett, and Zoë HalabanA Production of the Yale Center for Faith & Culture at Yale Divinity School https://faith.yale.edu/aboutSupport For the Life of the World podcast by giving to the Yale Center for Faith & Culture: https://faith.yale.edu/give
PREVIEW: FEDERAL RESERVE: JEROME POWELL'S WORRIES: Comment by colleague Liz Peek on the possibility of inflation's reemergence after the surprise half-point rate reduction. "It's happened before." More tonight. 1917 Federal Reserve Board
Chris Downey is the founder and Director of VaxCalc Labs, the informed consent technology company. VaxCalc's purpose is to create a happier, healthier, more scientific and resilient world by empowering each individual to make their own vaccination decisions - with the tools, technology, planning capability, research and community they need to do it.VaxCalc is the first business that celebrates vaccine hesitancy, providing a structured process, compassionate support, and a global online community for informed vaccination decision-making. VaxCalc expresses Chris's dream of creating a powerful force for good in the world by overcoming censorship, strengthening and spreading freedom, and creating community.Chris has a strong background in databases and software development, having worked and trained at IBM's International Systems Center in Gaithersburg MD, built bank regulation software at the Federal Reserve Board, and consulted on Wall Street at DLJ.VaxCalc is the result of 20 years of research, software development, and advocacy - and it's the first and only service that provides a structured process, compassionate support, and an online community for informed vaccination decision-making.Connect with Chris: The ultimate vaccine-research guide for modern parents: https://vaxcalc.org/Work one-on-one with me: https://vaxcalc.org/office-hours Show sponsored by RogersHood.com, use code IDM for 10% off cleansing kits.Support the showFor more Informed Dissent visit our website at Informed Dissent Media Follow us on Social media @InformedDissentMedia
Chris Downey is the founder and Director of VaxCalc Labs, the informed consent technology company. VaxCalc's purpose is to create a happier, healthier, more scientific and resilient world by empowering each individual to make their own vaccination decisions - with the tools, technology, planning capability, research and community they need to do it.VaxCalc is the first business that celebrates vaccine hesitancy, providing a structured process, compassionate support, and a global online community for informed vaccination decision-making. VaxCalc expresses Chris's dream of creating a powerful force for good in the world by overcoming censorship, strengthening and spreading freedom, and creating community.Chris has a strong background in databases and software development, having worked and trained at IBM's International Systems Center in Gaithersburg MD, built bank regulation software at the Federal Reserve Board, and consulted on Wall Street at DLJ.VaxCalc is the result of 20 years of research, software development, and advocacy - and it's the first and only service that provides a structured process, compassionate support, and an online community for informed vaccination decision-making.Connect with Chris: The ultimate vaccine-research guide for modern parents: https://vaxcalc.org/Work one-on-one with me: https://vaxcalc.org/office-hours Show sponsored by RogersHood.com, use code IDM for 10% off cleansing kits.Support the Show.For more Informed Dissent visit our website at Informed Dissent Media Follow us on Social media @InformedDissentMedia
#LondonCalling: Blame Game for Jerome Powell and the Fed. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-high-political-stakes-of-fed-rate-cuts-2024-election-growth-inflation-227398af 1914 Federal Reserve Board
Are you curious about the hidden factors driving your investment decisions? Today's guest is Andrew Chen, a Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve Board who focuses on monetary policy and financial stability. Published in leading journals, his research informs key policy decisions and helps shape the Federal Reserve's strategy for managing economic challenges effectively. In this episode, Andrew delves into the intricacies of meta-research and asset pricing, focusing on cross-sectional asset pricing predictors, replication, and out-of-sample performance in factor investing. We discuss the significance of open-source data and transparency, highlighting Andrew's creation of the Open Source Asset Pricing project, an indispensable and comprehensive dataset for asset pricing predictors. We also address the challenges of replicating financial studies, publication bias, data mining, and false discovery rates, with Andrew offering practical insights on how these factors impact financial research and investment decisions. For actionable insights that could refine your investment strategies and enhance your understanding of financial research, don't miss this fascinating conversation! Key Points From This Episode: (0:03:43) What an asset pricing factor is and how it differs from a predictor. (0:04:25) Three plausible explanations for why cross-sectional predictors exist. (0:05:45) Insight into Andrew's Open Source Asset Pricing project and why it's so important. (0:09:49) Where the results of his research diverge from other papers on the subject. (0:11:42) How the returns on anomalies in his data sample change post-publication. (0:12:33) Implications of this research for the “replication crisis” in cross-sectional asset pricing. (0:14:14) Challenges of false discovery rates, publication bias, and out-of-sample returns. (0:18:37) The effect of transaction costs on expected returns from factor investing. (0:22:02) Problems with estimating factor expected returns using historical data. (0:26:08) A big-picture view of the factors with the strongest investable expected returns. (0:29:12) The relative value of peer-reviewed factors with strong theoretical underpinnings. (0:35:13) Whether or not machine learning can be useful for asset pricing research. (0:37:39) Practical advice for using financial research to inform your investment decisions. (0:40:08) Andrew's take on the current state of cross-sectional asset pricing. (0:42:58) The simple way that Andrew defines success for himself. Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on Apple Podcasts — https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Andrew Chen — https://sites.google.com/site/chenandrewy/ Federal Reserve Board — https://www.federalreserve.gov/ Andrew Chen on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-chen-63394169/ Andrew Chen on X — https://x.com/achenfinance Open Source Asset Pricing Project — https://www.openassetpricing.com/ Center for Research in Security Prices — https://www.crsp.org/ Books From Today's Episode: The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: An Evolutionary Approach to Understanding Financial System Dynamics — https://www.amazon.com/dp/0199681147 Papers From Today's Episode: Andrew Chen, Tom Zimmermann, 'Open Source Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing'— https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3604626 Kewei Hou, Chen Xue, Lu Zhang, 'Replicating Anomalies' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3275496 R. David McLean, Jeffrey Pontiff, 'Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2156623 Ilia D. Dichev, 'Is the Risk of Bankruptcy a Systematic Risk?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=99868 Campbell R. Harvey, Yan Liu, Caroline Zhu, ‘…and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2249314 Andrew Chen, Mihail Velikov, ‘Zeroing in on the Expected Returns of Anomalies' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073681 Andrew Chen, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Tom Zimmermann, ‘Does Peer-Reviewed Research Help Predict Stock Returns?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4308069
This Flashback Friday is from episode 1179, published last April 24, 2019. Jason Hartman starts today's show with his in-house economist Thomas to discuss the new tax law and the impact it can have on people's tax brackets. They also dive in to why the government is interested in keeping the official inflation rate lower than actual inflation rates, as well as when it can really hurt the average citizen. Then we have a clip from the 2019 Meet the Masters of Income Property event where he discussed the good, the bad, and the ugly of self-management. Drew provides some insight into what's happened with the 8 properties he's self-managing right now, how he deals with issues that spring up (Amazon has been a life saver) and lessons learned about relationships with tenants. Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Properties Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com
The US economy appears to be slowing down. Final Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.4% and, as of this recording, Q2 GDP is currently estimated to be little better, at 1.5%. Retail sales for May, the most recent data we have, only grew at 0.1%. And unemployment is starting to tick up, too, rising last week to 4.1%. Now, none of these stats are particularly worrisome on their own. But together, are they signalling rockier economic times could like ahead? To find out, we have the good fortunate to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
Every American who has a mortgage is required by their bank to have homeowners insurance, but getting it and keeping it is becoming a challenge. In this episode, hear the highlights of a Senate hearing examining the problems in the homeowners insurance market and why they might lead to much bigger problems next time disaster strikes. Please Support Congressional Dish – Quick Links Contribute monthly or a lump sum via Support Congressional Dish via (donations per episode) Send Zelle payments to: Donation@congressionaldish.com Send Venmo payments to: @Jennifer-Briney Send Cash App payments to: $CongressionalDish or Donation@congressionaldish.com Use your bank's online bill pay function to mail contributions to: Please make checks payable to Congressional Dish Thank you for supporting truly independent media! Background Sources Effects of Climate on Insurance Christopher Flavelle and Mira Rojanasakul. May 13, 2024. The New York Times. Chris Van Hollen et al. September 7, 2023. Chris Van Hollen, U.S. Senator for Maryland. Alice C. Hill. August 17, 2023. Council on Foreign Relations. Insurance Information Institute. Antonio Grimaldi et al. November 19, 2020. McKinsey & Company. Lobbying OpenSecrets. OpenSecrets. OpenSecrets. Heritage Foundation SourceWatch. Demotech William Rabb. April 15, 2024. Insurance Journal. Parinitha Sastry et al. December 2023. Fannie Mae Adam Hayes. May 17, 2023. Investopedia. Hurricanes National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Audio Sources Senate Committee on the Budget June 5, 2024 Witnesses: Glen Mulready, Insurance Commissioner, State of Oklahoma Rade Musulin, Principal, Finity Consulting Dr. Ishita Sen, Assistant Professor of Finance, Harvard Business School Deborah Wood, Florida Resident , Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation's Grover Hermann Center for the Federal Budget Clips 23:05 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): In 2022 and 2023, more than a dozen insurance companies left the Florida residential market, including national insurers like Farmers. Residents fled to Citizens Property Insurance, the state backed insurer of last resort, which ballooned from a 4% market share in 2019 to as much as 17% last year. If it has to pay out claims that exceed its reserves, citizens can levy a surcharge on Florida insurance policy holders across the state. Good luck with that. Particularly if the surcharge grows to hundreds or even thousands of dollars to depopulate its books. Citizens has let private insurers cherry pick out its least risk policies. Those private insurers may have problems of their own, as we will hear today. 25:10 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): The federal budget takes a hit because these insurers and their policies are accepted by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, who either own or guarantee a large part of our $12 trillion mortgage market. This all sounds eerily reminiscent of the run-up to the mortgage meltdown of 2008, including a role of potentially captive or not fully responsible rating agencies. 25:45 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): Florida is far from alone. A New York Times investigation found that the insurance industry lost money on homeowners coverage in 18 states last year, and the states may surprise you. The list includes Illinois, Michigan, Utah, Washington, and Iowa. Insurers in Iowa lost money each of the last four years. This is a signal that hurricanes and earthquakes, once the most prevalent perils, are being rivaled by hail, windstorms, and wildfires. 28:00 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): This isn't all that complicated. Climate risk makes things uninsurable. No insurance makes things unmortgageable. No mortgages crashes the property markets. Crashed property markets trash the economy. It all begins with climate risk, and a major party pretending that climate risk isn't real imperils our federal budget and millions of Americans all across the country. 33:45 Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Insurance premiums are far too high across the board and may increase after the recent storms, including those very storms in my state of Iowa. Climate change isn't the primary driver of insurance rate hikes and collapse of the insurance industry isn't imminent. Although I'll have to say, Iowa had six property and casualty companies pull out of insuring Iowans. Climate change doesn't explain why auto insurance premiums in 2024 have increased by a whopping 20% year over year. It also doesn't account for the consistent failure of liberal cities to fight crime, which has raised insurance risk and even caused insurers to deny coverage. Expensive liberal policies, not climate change, are much to blame for these market dynamics. 39:00 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): The first witness is Rade Musulin. Rade is an actuary with 45 years of experience in insurance, specializing in property pricing, natural perils, reinsurance, agriculture, catastrophe, risk modeling, public policy development, and climate risk. Specifically, he spent many years working in Florida, including as chair of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund Advisory Council during the time in which Citizens Property Insurance Corporation was established. 39:35 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): Our second witness is Dr. Ishida Sen. Dr. Sen is an Assistant Professor at Harvard Business School. Her recent research examines the pricing of property insurance and the interactions between insurance and mortgage markets. This includes the role that institutions and the regulatory landscape play and the broader consequences for real estate markets, climate adaptation, and our overall financial stability. 40:00 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): Our third witness is Deb Wood. Ms. Wood and her husband Dan McGrath are both retired Floridians. They moved to South Florida in 1979 and lived in Broward County, which includes Fort Lauderdale for 43 years until skyrocketing insurance premiums became too much. They now reside in Tallahassee, Florida. 40:35 Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Dr. EJ Antoni is a Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget. His research focuses on fiscal and monetary policy, and he previously was an economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Antoni earned his Master's degree and Doctor's degree in Economics from Northern Illinois University. 41:10 Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Commissioner Glen Mulready has served as Oklahoma's 13th Insurance Commissioner and was first elected to this position in 2019. Commissioner Mulready started his insurance career as a broker in 1984, and also served in the Oklahoma State House of Representatives. 42:15 Rade Musulin: Okay. My name is Ray Muslin. I'm an actuary who has extensive experience in natural hazard risks and funding arrangements for the damage and loss they cause. I've worked with many public sector entities on policy responses to the challenges of affordability, availability of insurance, and community resilience. This work included participating in Florida's response to Hurricane Andrew, which included the creation of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund and Citizens Property Insurance Corporation. The Cat Fund and Citizens can access different forms of funding than traditional insurance companies. Instead of holding sufficient capital or reinsurance before an event to cover the cost of potential losses, both entities use public sources of capital to reduce upfront costs by partially funding losses post-event through bonding and assessments. All property casualty insurance policy holders, whether in Citizens or not, are subject to its assessments. While the Cat Fund can also assess almost all policies, including automobile, this approach exposes Floridians to debt and repayment if large losses occur, and it subsidizes high risk policies from the entire population. These pools, others like them in other states, and the NFIP have contributed to rapid development in high risk areas driving higher costs in the long run. In Florida, national insurers have reduced their exposure as a significant proportion of the insurance market has moved to Citizens or smaller insurers with limited capital that are heavily dependent on external reinsurance. To date, Florida's system has been successful in meeting its claims obligations, while improvements in building codes have reduced loss exposure. However, for a variety of reasons, including exposure to hurricanes, claims cost inflation, and litigation, Florida's insurance premiums are the highest in the nation, causing significant affordability stress for consumers. According to market research from Bankrate, the average premium for a $300,000 home in Florida is three times the national average, with some areas five times the national average. A major hurricane hitting a densely populated area like Miami could trigger large and long lasting post-event assessments or even exceed the system's funding capacity. Continued rapid exposure growth and more extreme hurricane losses amplified by climate change will cause increasing stress on the nation's insurance system, which may be felt through solvency issues, non-renewals, growth of government pools, and affordability pressure. 44:55 Rade Musulin: Evidence of increasing risk abounds, including Hurricane Otis in 2023, which rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a cat. five hurricane and devastated Acapulco in Mexico last summer. Water temperatures off Florida exceeded a hundred degrees Fahrenheit last week. As was alluded to earlier, NOAA forecast an extremely active hurricane season for '24. We've seen losses in the Mid-Atlantic from Sandy, record flooding from Harvey, and extreme devastation from Maria, among others. In coming decades, we must prepare for the possibility of more extreme hurricanes and coastal flooding from Texas to New England. 46:50 Dr. Ishita Sen: Good morning Senators. I am Ishita Sen, Assistant Professor at Harvard Business School and my research studies insurance markets. In recent work with co-authors at Columbia University and the Federal Reserve Board, I examine how climate risk creates fiscal and potentially financial instability because of miscalibrated insurer screening standards and repercussions to mortgage markets. 47:15 Dr. Ishita Sen: Insurance is critical to the housing market. Property insurers help households rebuild after disasters by preserving collateral values and reducing the likelihood that a borrower defaults. Insurance directly reduces the risks for mortgage lenders and the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Mortgage Lenders therefore require property insurance and the GSEs only purchase mortgages backed by insurers who meet minimum financial strength ratings, which measure insurer solvency and ability to pay claims. The GSEs accept three main rating agencies AM Best, S & P and, more recently, Demotech. And to provide an example, Fannie Mae requires insurers to have at least a B rating from AM Best, or at least an A rating from Demo Tech to accept a mortgage. Now, despite having this policy in place, we find a dramatic rise in mortgages backed by fragile insurers and show that the GSEs and therefore the taxpayers ultimately shoulder a large part of the financial burden. Our research focuses on Florida because of availability of granular insurance market data, and we show that traditional insurers are exiting and the gap is rapidly being filled by insurers, rated by Demotech, which has about 60% market share in Florida today. These insurers are low quality across a range of different financial and operational metrics, and are at a very high risk of becoming insolvent. But despite their risk, these insurers secure high enough ratings to meet the minimum rating requirements set by the GSEs. Our analysis shows that many actually would not be eligible under the methodologies of other rating agencies, implying that in many cases these ratings are inflated and that the GSEs insurer requirements are miscalibrated. 49:20 Dr. Ishita Sen: We next look at how fragile insurers create mortgage market risks. So in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, homeowners with a policy from one of the insolvent Demotech insurers were significantly more likely to default on their mortgage relative to similar borrowers with policies from stable insurers. This is because insurers that are in financial trouble typically are slower to pay claims or may not pay the full amounts. But this implies severe economic hardships for many, many Floridians despite having expensive insurance coverage in place. However, the pain doesn't just stop there. The financial costs of fragile insurers go well beyond the borders of Florida because lenders often sell mortgages, for example, to the GSEs, and therefore, the risks created by fragile insurers spread from one state to the rest of the financial system through the actions of lenders and rating agencies. In fact, we show two reasons why the GSEs bear a large share of insurance fragility risk. First is that lenders strategically securitize mortgages, offloading loans backed by Demotech insurers to the GSEs in order to limit their counterparty risk exposures. And second, that lenders do not consider insurer risk during mortgage origination for loans that they can sell to the GSEs, even though they do so for loans that they end up retaining, indicating lax insurer screening standards for loans that can be offloaded to the GSEs. 50:55 Dr. Ishita Sen: Before I end, I want to leave you with two numbers. Over 90%. That's our estimate of Demotech's market share among loans that are sold to the GSEs. And 25 times more. That's Demotech's insolvency rate relative to AM Best, among the GSE eligible insurers. 57:15 Glen Mulready: As natural disasters continue to rise, understanding the dynamics of insurance pricing is crucial for both homeowners and policymakers. Homeowners insurance is a fundamental safeguard for what is for many Americans their single largest asset. This important coverage protects against financial loss due to damage or destruction of a home and its contents. However, recent years have seen a notable increase in insurance premiums. One significant driver of this rise is convective storms and other severe weather events. Convective storms, which include phenomena like thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hail, have caused substantial damage in various regions. The cost to repair homes and replace belongings after such events has skyrocketed leading insurance companies to adjust their premiums to cover that increased risk. Beyond convective storms, we've witnessed hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding. These events have not only caused damage, but have also increased the long-term risk profile of many areas. Insurance companies are tasked with managing that risk and have responded by raising premiums to ensure they can cover those potential claims. 58:30 Glen Mulready: Another major factor influencing homeowner's insurance premiums is inflation. Inflation affects the cost of building materials, labor, and other expenses related to home repair and reconstruction. As the cost of living increases, so does the cost of claims for insurers. When the price of lumber, steel, and other essential materials goes up, the expense of repairing or rebuilding homes also rises. Insurance companies must reflect these higher costs in their premiums to maintain financial stability and ensure they can meet those contractual obligations to policyholders. 59:35 Glen Mulready: I believe the most essential aspect of managing insurance premiums is fostering a robust, competitive free market. Competition among insurance companies encourages innovation and efficiency, leading to better pricing and services for consumers. When insurers can properly underwrite and price for risk, they create a more balanced and fair market. This involves using advanced data analytics and modeling techniques to accurately assess the risk levels of different properties. By doing so, insurance companies can offer premiums that reflect the true risk, avoiding excessive charges for low risk homeowners, and ensuring high risk properties are adequately covered. Regulation also plays a crucial role in maintaining a healthy insurance market. Policyholders must strike a balance between consumer protection and allowing insurers the freedom and flexibility to adjust their pricing based on the risk. Overly stringent regulations can stifle competition and lead to market exits, reducing choices for consumers. We've seen this play out most recently in another state where there were artificial caps put in place on premium increases that worked well for consumers in the short term, but then one by one, all of the major insurers began announcing they would cease to write any new homeowners insurance in that state. These are all private companies, and if there's not the freedom and flexibility to price their products properly, they may have to take drastic steps as we've seen. Conversely, a well-regulated market encourages transparency and fairness, ensuring that homeowners have access to the most affordable and adequate coverage options. 1:02:00 Dr. EJ Antoni: I'm a public finance economist and the Richard F. Aster fellow at the Heritage Foundation, where I research fiscal and monetary policy with a particular focus on the Federal Reserve. I am also a senior fellow at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity. 1:02:15 Dr. EJ Antoni: Since January 2021, prices have risen a cumulative 19.3% on average in the American economy. Construction prices for single family homes have risen much faster, up 30.5% during the same time. 1:03:20 Dr. EJ Antoni: Actuarial tables used in underwriting to estimate risk and future losses, as well as calculate premiums, rely heavily on those input costs. When prices increase radically, precisely as has happened over the last several years, old actuarial tables are of significantly less use when pricing premiums because they will grossly understate the future cost to the insurer. The sharp increase in total claim costs since 2019 has resulted in billions of dollars of losses for both insurers and reinsurers prompting large premium increases to stop those losses. This has put significant financial stress on consumers who are already struggling with a cost of living crisis and are now faced with much higher insurance premiums, especially for homeowners insurance. 1:05:10 Dr. EJ Antoni: The increase in claims related to weather events has undoubtedly increased, but it is not due to the climate changing. This is why the insurance and reinsurance markets do not rely heavily on climate modeling when pricing premiums. Furthermore, climate models are inherently subjective, not merely in how the models are constructed, but also by way of the inputs that the modeler uses. In other words, because insufficient data exists to create a predictive model, a human being must make wide ranging assumptions and add those to the model in place of real world data. Thus, those models have no predictive value for insurers. 1:07:40 Sen. Sheldon Whitehoue (D-RI): You say that this combination of demographics, development, and disasters poses a significant risk to our financial system. What do you mean by risk to our financial system Rade Musulin: Well, Senator, if you look at the combination, as has been pointed out, of high growth and wealth accumulation in coastal areas, and you look at just what we've observed in the climate, much less what's predicted in the future, there is significant exposure along the coastline from Maine to Texas. In fact, my family's from New Jersey and there is enormous development on the coast of New Jersey. And if we start to get major hurricanes coming through those areas, the building codes are probably not up to the same standards they are in Florida. And we could be seeing some significant losses, as I believe was pointed out in the recent Federal Reserve study. Sen. Sheldon Whitehoue (D-RI): And how does that create risk to the financial system? Rade Musulin: Well, because it's sort of a set of dominoes, you start with potentially claims issues with the insurers being stressed and not able to pay claims. You have post-event rate increases as we've seen in Florida, you could have situations where people cannot secure insurance because they can't afford it, then that affects their mortgage security and so on and so forth. So there are a number of ways that this could affect the financial system, sir. Sen. Sheldon Whitehoue (D-RI): Cascading beyond the immediate insurer and becoming a national problem. Rade Musulin: Well, I would just note Senator, that in Florida, the real problems started years after we got past Andrew. We got past paying the claims on Andrew, and then the big problems occurred later when we tried to renew the policies. 1:10:50 Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): And you see in this, and I'm quoting you here, parallels in the 2008 financial crisis. What parallels do you see? Dr. Ishita Sen: So just like what happened during the financial crisis, there were rating agencies that gave out high ratings to pools of mortgages backed by subprime loans. Here we have a situation where rating agencies like Demotech are giving out inflated ratings to insurance companies. The end result is sort of the same. There is just too much risk and too many risky mortgages being originated, in this case backed by really low quality insurers that are then entering the financial system. And the consequences of that has to be born by, of course the homeowners, but also the mortgage owners, GSCs (Government Sponsored Enterprises), the lenders, and ultimately the federal and state governments. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI): You say, this will be my last question. The fragility of property insurers is an important channel through which climate risk might threaten the stability of mortgage markets and possibly the financial system. What do you mean when you refer to a risk to the financial system? Dr. Ishita Sen: Well, as I was explaining the GSEs, if there are large losses that the GSEs face, then those losses have to be plugged by somebody. So the taxpayers, that's one channel through which you've got risk to the financial system and the GSE's serve as a backstop in the mortgage market. They may not have the ability or capacity to do so in such a scenario, which affects mortgage backed security prices, which are held by all sorts of financial institutions. So that starts affecting all of these institutions. On the other hand, if you've got a bunch of insurers failing, another channel is these insurers are one of the largest investors in many asset classes like corporate bonds, equities, and so on. And they may have to dump these securities at inopportune times, and that affects the prices of these securities as well. 1:12:45 Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-AI): Dr. Antoni, is there any evidence to support the notion that climate change is the greatest threat to the insurance market? Dr. EJ Antoni: No. Senator, there is not. And part of that has to do again, with the fact that when we look at the models that are used to predict climate change, we simply don't have enough empirical data with which we can input into those models. And so as a result of that, we have to have human assumptions on what we think is going to happen based essentially on a guess. And as a result of that, these models really are not of any predictive value, and that's why these models for the last 50 years have been predicting catastrophic outcomes, none of which have come true. 1:14:45 Glen Mulready: This focus on the rating agencies, I would agree with that if that were the be all end all. But the state insurance commissioners in each 50 states is tasked with the financial solvency of the insurance companies. We do not depend on rating agencies for that. We are doing financial exams on them. We are doing financial analysis every quarter on each one of them. So I would agree if that was the sort of be all end all, forgive that phrase, but it's not at all. And we don't depend very much at all on those rating agencies from our standpoint. 1:22:15 Dr. Ishita Sen: On the point about regulators looking at -- rating agencies is not something that we need to look at. I would just point out that in Florida, if you look at the number of exams that the Demotech rated insurers, that by the way have a 20% insolvency rate relative to 0% for traditional insurers, they get examined at the same rate as the traditional insurers like Farmers and AllState get examined, which is not something that you would expect if you're more risky. You would expect regulators to come look at them much, much more frequently. And the risk-based capital requirements that we have currently, which were designed in the 1980s, they're just not sensitive enough to new risks like wildfire and hurricanes and so on. And also not as well designed for under-diversified insurance companies because if so, all of these insurers were meeting the risk-based capital requirements, however, at the same time going insolvent at the rate of 20%. So those two things don't really go hand in hand. 1:23:25 Dr. Ishita Sen: Ultimately what the solution is is something that is obviously the main question that we are here to answer, but I would say that it is extremely hard to really figure out what the solution is, in part because we are not in a position right now to even answer some basic facts about how big the problem is, what exactly the numbers look like. For instance, we do not know basic facts about how much coverage people have in different places, how much they're paying. And when I say we don't know, we don't know this at a granular enough level because the data does not exist. And the first step towards designing any policy would be for us to know exactly how bad the problem is. And then we come up with a solution for that and start to evaluate these different policy responses. Right now we are trying to make policy blindfolded. 1:23:50 Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI): So we've had testimony before this committee that we've already spent $5-6 trillion. That's 5,000 to 6,000 billion dollars trying to mitigate climate change. We haven't made a dent in it. Their estimates, it's going to cost tens of trillions of dollars every year to reach net zero. So again, this is not the solution for a real problem, which is the broken insurance market. I have enough Wisconsin residents who live on the Gulf Coast in Florida to know after Hurricane Ian, you got some real problems in Florida. But fixing climate change isn't the solution. 1:33:15 Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR): In looking at the materials I saw that Citizens Property Insurance Company, I gather that's Louisiana and Florida, that have a completely state backed program. Well, alright, so if the state becomes the insurer of last resort and they now suffer the same losses that a regular private insurance company is suffering, now the folks in the state are carrying massive debt. So that doesn't seem like a great solution. Dr. Ishita Sen: That's definitely a problem, right? The problem is of course, that whether the state then has the fiscal capacity to actually withstand a big loss, like a big hurricane season, which is a concern that was raised about Citizens. And in such a scenario then in a world where they do not have enough tax revenue, then they would have to go into financial markets, try to borrow money, which could be very costly and so on. So fiscally it's going to be very challenging for many cities and many municipalities and counties and so on. 1:36:40 Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): I wish there were something we could do that would reduce the climate change we're seeing and the warming of the planet. But I've seen absolutely nothing proposed by anyone that reduces CO2 emissions, methane gases and the heating of the planet. Climate change is going to happen because of the development in China and Indonesia and Brazil, and the only thing that actually makes any measurable impact at all is putting a price on carbon, and no one seems to be willing to consider doing that. Everything else that's being talked about on the climate — Democratic Senator: I got two bills. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): I know you and I are, but you guys had reconciliation. You could have done it all by yourselves and you didn't. So the idea that somehow we're going to fix climate and solve the insurance problem is pie in the sky. That's avoiding the reality that we can't fix climate because that's a global issue, not an American issue. Anyway, let me turn back to insurance. 1:38:30 Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): So the question is, what actions can we take? Fiscal reform? Yes, to try and deal with inflation. Except I want to note something, Mr. Antoni, because you're esteemed at the Heritage Foundation. 72% of federal spending is not part of the budget we vote on. So we talk about Biden wants to spend all this.... 72% we don't vote on; we only vote on 28%. Half of that is the military. We Republicans want more military spending, not less. So that means the other 14%, which the Democrats want to expand, there's no way we can reduce the 14% enough to have any impact on the massive deficits we're seeing. So there's going to have to be a broader analysis of what we have to do to reign in our fiscal challenges. I just want to underscore that. I would say a second thing we can do, besides fiscal reform and dealing with inflation, is stopping subsidizing high risk areas. Basically subsidizing people to build expensive places along the coast and in places that are at risk of wildfire. And we subsidize that and that creates huge financial risk to the system. And finally, mitigation of one kind or another. That's the other thing we can do is all sorts of mitigation: forestry management, having people move in places that are not high risk. But if you want to live in a big house on the coast, you're gonna have to spend a lot of money to insure it or take huge risk. That's just the reality. So those are the three I come up with. Stop the subsidy, mitigation, and fiscal reform. What else am I missing, Mr. Musulin? And I'm just going to go down the line for those that are sort of in this area to give me your perspectives. Rade Musulin: Well, thank you, Senator. And I'd agree with all those things. And I'd also add that we need to start thinking about future-proofing our building codes and land use policies. The sea levels are rising. If you're going to build a house that's supposed to last 75 years, you ought to be thinking about the climate in 75 years when you give somebody a permit to build there. So I'd say that's important. I'd also say that large disasters also drive inflation because it puts more pressure and demand on labor and materials. More disasters means supplies that could have been used to build new homes for Americans or diverted to rebuild homes in the past. So certainly doing things to reduce the vulnerability of properties and improve their resilience is important. And I do think, sir, that there are things we can do about climate change with respect over periods of decades that can make a difference in the long run. Thank you. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): Thank you. Yes. Dr. Ishita Sen: So before that, the one point about inflation that we are missing, which is without doubt it is a contributing factor, but the US has had inflation in the past without such an acute crisis in insurance markets. So whether that is the biggest cause or not is up for debate. I don't think we have reached a conclusion on inflation being the biggest contributor of rising insurance cost. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): It's just a big one. You'd agree It's a big one? Dr. Ishita Sen: I agree. It's a big one, but I wouldn't say it's the biggest one in terms of policy solutions. I completely agree with you on, we need to stop subsidizing building in high risk areas. That's definitely one of the things we need to do that. Mitigation, another point that you bring up. And on that, I would say not only do we need to harden our homes, but we also need to harden our financial institutions, our banks, and our insurance companies in order to make them withstand really large climate shocks that are for sure coming their way. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT): Thank You, Ms. Wood. I'm going to let you pass on this just because that's not your area of expertise. Your experience was something which focused our thinking today. Mr. Mulready. Glen Mulready: Thank you, Senator. I would say amen to your comments, but I'll give you three quick things. Number one, FEMA has a survey out that states that every $1 spent in mitigation saves $6 in lost claims. It pays off. Number two, unfortunately, a lot of communities have to have a disaster happen. In Moore, Oklahoma, back a dozen years ago, an EF5 (tornado) hit, it was just totally devastating. After that, the city of Moore changed their zoning, they changed their building zoning codes, and then third, the city of Tulsa, back in the eighties, had horrible flooding happened. So they invested over decades in infrastructure to prevent flooding. Now we're one of only two communities in the country that are Class one NFIP rated. 1:45:40 Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD): One way to address this, and I think it was discussed in a different matter, is the need to get the data and to get consensus on where the risks lie, which is why last year Senator Whitehouse, Senator Warren and I sent a letter to the Treasury Department, to the Federal Insurance Office (FIO), urging them to collect information from different states. I'm a supporter of a state-based insurance system for property and casualty insurance, but I do think it would benefit all of us to have a sort of national yardstick against which we can measure what's happening. So Dr. Sen, could you talk a little bit about the benefit of having a common source of insurance data through the FIO and how that could benefit state regulators and benefit all of us? Dr. Ishita Sen: Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for bringing that up. That's just the first order importance, I think, because we don't even know the basic facts about this problem at a granular enough level. The risks here are local, and so we need to know what's going zip code-by-zip code, census tract-by-census tract, and for regulators to be able to figure out exactly how much risk is sitting with each of these insurance companies they need to know how much policies they're writing, what's the type of coverage they're selling in, what are the cancellations looking like in different zip codes. Only then can they figure out exactly how exposed these different insurers are, and then they can start designing policy about whether the risk-based capital ratios look alright or not, or should we put a surcharge on wildfires or hurricanes and so on? And we do need a comprehensive picture. We just can't have a particular state regulator look at the risks in that state, because of course, the insurer is selling insurance all over the country and we need to get a comprehensive picture of all of that. 1:47:40 Sen. Chris Van Hollen: I appreciate that. I gather that the Treasury Department is getting some resistance from some state insurance regulators. I hope we can overcome that because I'm not sure why anyone would want to deny the American people the benefit of the facts here. 1:48:45 Rade Musulin: I will just note that sometimes climate change itself can contribute to the inflation we've been talking about. For example, there were beetle infestations and droughts and fires in Canada, which decimated some of the lumber crop and led to a fivefold increase in the cost of lumber a few years ago. So some of this claims inflation is actually related to climate change, and I think we need to address that. 1:49:35 Glen Mulready: If you didn't know, the NAIC, National Association of Insurance Commission is in the midst of a data collection right now that will collect that data for at least 80% of the homeowner's market. And we have an agreement with FIO (Federal Insurance Office) to be sharing that data with them. They originally came to us, I got a letter from FIO and they were requesting data that we did not actually collect at the zip code level, and they had a very stringent timeline for that. So my response, it wasn't, no, it was just, look, we can't meet that timeline. We don't collect that today. We can in the future. But from that is where this has grown the data called by the NEIC. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD): So I appreciate, I saw that there had been now this effort on behalf of the....So has this now been worked out? Are there any states that are objecting, to your knowledge at this point in time, in terms of sharing data? Glen Mulready: I don't know about specific states. We will be collecting data that will represent at least 80% of the market share. Music by Editing Production Assistance
PREVIEW: #RECESSION: #INFLATION: Conversation with colleague Elizabeth Peek re the choices before Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Board between recession driven by the high cost of money and inflation spiking caused by premature rate reduction. More later. 1923 Coolidge and investment bankers at the White House
PREVIEW: #FED: Conversation with colleague Elizabeth Peek re how many cuts in the Fed rate before end of year? Three promised. None so far. What about the Election? Much more later tonight. Federal Reserve Board 1927
#Markets: Not favoring a cut. Liz Peek The Hill. Fox News and Fox Business https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-chair-jerome-powell-maintains-wait-and-see-posture-on-inflation-and-rates-1cd35820?mod=hp_lead_pos5 1927 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
#LondonCalling: The Federal Reserve influencer is a formula named FRBUS. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion https://www.ft.com/content/6c746e2c-1ddb-4e61-8620-7d46a6393818 1914 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
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