Podcast appearances and mentions of Kevin Warsh

Joseph Sternberg reports that Kevin Warsh aims to reduce the Federal Reserve's $2.9 trillion in bank reserves, sparking a debate over the central bank's size relative to the economy. 5.1890 PERSIA

3-3-20261600  WORLDElizabeth Peek reports that Iran attacks Qatar's gas fields, causing European prices to soar by 50% as the continent relies on US liquified natural gas amidst a cold winter. 1.Elizabeth Peek reports that Democrats break tradition by opposing the administration during wartime, citing potential anti-Israel sentiment and risks to the upcoming midterms as the conflict with Iran escalates. 2.Judy Dempsey reports that the UAE raises combat readiness after intercepts over Dubai, while Europe faces depleted energy stocks and a lack of strategic clarity from Washington regarding the conflict. 3.Judy Dempsey reports that recent polls show US voters oppose intervention in Iran, while rumors of internal administration friction suggest a lack of unified strategy for the expanding war. 4.Joseph Sternberg reports that Kevin Warsh aims to reduce the Federal Reserve's $2.9 trillion in bank reserves, sparking a debate over the central bank's size relative to the economy. 5.Joseph Sternberg reports that a shrinking working-age population forces Germany to focus on productivity and innovation, as Chancellor Friedrich Merz navigates welfare state sustainability and potential brain drain. 6.Gregory Copley reports that gold and oil prices fluctuate as Pakistan strikes Taliban targets in Afghanistan and Israelexpands ground operations into Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah's resurgent military infrastructure. 7.Gregory Copley reports that Israeli missiles reportedly hit a meeting of Iran's Council of Experts, while the administration considers supporting Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi for a post-regime future. 8.Mary Kissel reports that Beijing watches US munitions depletion and asset movements, potentially using homeland distractions to prepare for future aggression against Taiwan or Philippine territory in Asia. 9.Mary Kissel reports that while Maduro is rendered, his lieutenants maintain control in Caracas, slow-walking transition efforts as Maria Corina Machado plans her return to lead the nation. 10.Jonathan Schanzer reports that IDF ground troops enter Lebanon to "clean house," targeting missile silos and leadership, while secret talks explore normalization between the two nations after Hezbollah's removal. 11.Jonathan Schanzer reports that Iran's attacks on neutral Gulf nations backfire, pushing previously hesitant allies like Qatar and Oman toward a unified front with Israel and the United States. 12.Bill Roggio reports that escalating border clashes result in the destruction of former US equipment, while Pakistanpressures the Afghan Taliban to restrain extremist groups attacking inside Pakistani territory. 13.Bill Roggio reports that the US exercises extreme caution with battle-hardened Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, fearing retaliation against its small footprint of personnel and the Baghdad embassy. 14.Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo report that Secretary of State Rubio discusses a transition for the cash-strapped Cuban regime, while Venezuela's Rodriguez brothers continue to stall on releasing political prisoners. 15.Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa report that President Lula faces domestic polling challenges and USsanctions while attempting to balance his leftist base's support for Iran with necessary trade relations with Trump. 16.

MRKT Matrix - Wednesday, March 4th S&P 500 turns positive for week as investors look past Iran conflict (CNBC) Iran War Oil Shock Threatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation (Bloomberg) Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell (CNBC) After Powell, Can the Fed Stay Independent? (WSJ) Bessent says global 15% tariff starts this week, predicts Trump duties will return to old levels US to Pay Interest If Ordered to Refund Importers Over Tariffs (Bloomberg) The labor market is finally stabilizing, but there's a catch (Axios) Record Numbers of Workers Are Raiding Their 401(k) Savings (WSJ) Nvidia Swears Off an Earnings Crutch, Putting Pressure on Other Tech Companies (WSJ) Nvidia CEO Huang says $30 billion OpenAI investment ‘might be the last' (CNBC) Apple Uses Low Prices to Attack Rivals During Memory-Chip Crunch (WSJ) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank3:51 The insurance company play5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026 10:12 Banks discussion 14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market20:34 Tariffs21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers

In this episode, Kathy Jones announces that she will be retiring soon and that Collin Martin, Schwab's Head of Fixed Income Research, will take over as co-host of On Investing. Liz Ann and Kathy also discuss the latest bout of volatility caused by future concerns around AI.  Then, Kathy is joined by Claudia Sahm, former economist for the Federal Reserve, former economist for the White House Council of Economic Advisors, and now chief economist for New Century Advisors. Kathy and Claudia discuss the path forward for the Federal Reserve, in terms of setting policy. They cover the state of the labor market, certain issues regarding the quality of the data produced, and the potential impact of AI on labor supply, among other issues. You can keep up with Claudia Sahm her on her Substack newsletter called “Stay-at-Home Macro.” On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions  (0226-GYWH) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Jeremy Siegel, Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School and Senior Economist at Wisdom Tree, analyzes the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, the market's resilience amid policy uncertainty, the potential impact of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, and how geopolitical tensions with Iran could influence interest rates and economic growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

FF: The Greatest Economy? Look at the Numbers! The Trump Administration thinks we have the greatest economy, but the numbers do not agree. If you see a contradiction, check your premises; one of them is wrong. We talk about the actual numbers, how inflation works, and ways the U.S. can increase the monetary supply without experiencing consumer price inflation. We also talk about AI, China's "green energy", and gold and silver. We also talk about the new incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, and what he is saying that is causing him to be labeled a "conspiracy theorist" by others. He has some good ideas, but will he be able to use those to positively influence the Fed's decisions? We'll see! Sponsors: American Gold Exchange Our dealer for precious metals & the exclusive dealer of Real Power Family silver rounds. Get your first, or next bullion order from American Gold Exchange like we do. Tell them the Real Power Family sent you! Click on this link to get a FREE Starters Guide. Or Click Here to order our new Real Power Family silver rounds. 1 Troy Oz 99.99% Fine Silver Abolish Property Taxes in Ohio: www.AxOHTax.com  Get more information about abolishing all property taxes in Ohio. Our Links: www.RealPowerFamily.com Info@RealPowerFamily.com

Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Is the global economy stronger than it looks or more fragile beneath the surface? If you're trying to reconcile booming markets with rising geopolitical risk, this week's episode brings an important perspective.I sat down with Chris Zhang, Partner & CIO of Ascend Interplay, to break down the real forces shaping 2026:How AI is shifting from a narrative to a measurable economic impactWhy labor markets may determine where we go nextGlobal structural shifts that are underway - from escalating Middle East tensions to the rise of protectionism - and what they imply for supply chains, inflation dynamics, and U.S. debt sustainability.Big thanks to Chris for a thoughtful, data-driven discussion.⏱️ Chapter Markers00:00 – Welcome & Why 2025 Defied Gravity02:00 – Global GDP Surprise & Market Performance03:30 – The Structural Bull Market in Gold & Silver07:45 – When Would Gold Actually Fall?10:00 – 2026 Outlook: Cautiously Constructive11:45 – AI's Real Impact on Productivity & Labor14:30 – Middle East Conflict & Oil Markets17:15 – Are Trade Wars Really Over?19:30 – Structural Protectionism & Supply Chains22:00 – The Americas Strategy & Regional Integration26:30 – U.S. Debt: Is There a Real Solution?29:45 – The Fed, Growth & Kevin Warsh's Role32:45 – Final Takeaways for 2026Links:Chris Zhang: LinkedInInterplay: Website, LinkedIn, TwitterMPD: LinkedIn, Twitter

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns for a wide-ranging conversation covering what he calls one of the most confusing macro environments of his 40-plus year career. He breaks down how the passive bid has fundamentally changed market dynamics, creating an artificially priced market that is not a true price discovery mechanism and cannot end well. Beneath the surface of a tape that is only a couple percent off all-time highs, Bill sees a stealth rotation away from high-flying tech and AI names into old economy stocks — but without the contagion a pre-passive-bid market would have experienced. On gold, Bill explains why the move to $5,000 is a function of eroding confidence, weaponized financial systems, and unmanageable sovereign debt — and why the bull market is far from over since Americans have barely shown up to the party. He also issues a pointed warning on bonds, arguing the bond market has not sanctioned the Fed's rate cuts in what could be the early stages of the market taking the printing press away from the Fed — and predicts yield curve control is likely coming under the next Fed chair regardless of who it is.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/0:00 Intro and welcome back Bill Fleckenstein1:39 Big picture macro view - "confused"4:24 Splatterings beneath the surface — what's really happening in the market5:51 The passive bid explained — why rotation feels impossible7:25 The tape holds together while market cap gets destroyed underneath10:58 Why the market isn't cracking — what would have happened without the passive bid12:40 Is this still a free market? The dangerous setup nobody appreciates15:16 Short selling 18:23 Bill's positioning 19:21 Gold at $5,100 24:18 Silver 30:33 Why gold should have been higher all along the way36:00 US debt at $38.7 trillion — is there a breaking point or slow erosion?37:49 Bonds — the big story most people are missing40:00 Is the bond market losing trust in the Fed?41:00 The bond market will ultimately take the printing press away from the Fed42:06 Inflation psychology — why the consequences of inflation are not transitory44:45 Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair 45:37 Yield curve control is coming 49:04 What would get Bill to deploy his 30-40% cash position51:26 The biggest risk nobody is talking about — the passive bid54:26 Parting thoughts and where to find Bill — fleckensteincapital.com

Deutschland besitzt die zweitgrößten Goldreserven weltweit. Ein Drittel davon lagert in den USA. Bei einigen Expert:innen schrillen die Alarmglocken: Sie fordern, dass die Bundesbank die deutschen Goldreserven in die Bundesrepublik holen sollte. Hintergrund sind die veränderten transatlantischen Beziehungen unter US-Präsident Donald Trump. Nur wie einfach können etwa 1200 Tonnen Gold überhaupt verlagert werden? Und welche politischen Auswirkungen hätte der Umzug der deutschen Goldreserven? In dieser 11KM-Folge erzählt Anne-Catherine Beck aus der ARD-Finanzredaktion, warum deutsches Gold überhaupt in den USA liegt und ob es wirklich vor Donald Trump geschützt werden muss. Hier findet ihr alle aktuellen Entwicklungen rund um das Thema Gold: https://www.tagesschau.de/thema/gold Anne-Catherine Beck hört ihr auch im Podcast "What the Wirtschaft?!": https://www.ardaudiothek.de/sendung/what-the-wirtschaft/urn:ard:show:eb4144cee55230ee/ 11KM ist am 9. Mai beim ARD Sounds Festival dabei. Alle Infos und Tickets hier: https://www.ardsoundsfestival.de/#/ Hier geht's zu unserem Podcast-Tipp “Zehn Minuten Wirtschaft“ von NDR Info: https://1.ard.de/10_Minuten_Wirtschaft?=cp Diese und viele weitere Folgen von 11KM findet ihr überall da, wo es Podcasts gibt, auch hier in der ARD Audiothek: https://www.ardaudiothek.de/sendung/11km-der-tagesschau-podcast/12200383/ An dieser Folge waren beteiligt: Folgenautor: Julius Bretzel Mitarbeit: Marc Hoffmann Host: David Krause Produktion: Jonas Teichmann, Emilian Grimm, Konrad Winkler, Timo Lindemann, Hanna Brünjes Planung: Nicole Dienemann und Hardy Funk Distribution: Kerstin Ammermann Redaktionsleitung: Yasemin Yüksel und Fumiko Lipp 11KM: der tagesschau-Podcast wird produziert von BR24 und NDR Info. Die redaktionelle Verantwortung für diese Episode liegt beim BR.

Matt Cole is the CEO of Strive Asset Management, and Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. In this conversation, we break down why bitcoin's volatility doesn't change the long-term story, how institutions think about drawdowns, and what today's Fed policy could mean for bitcoin and other risk assets. We also touch on digital credit, bitcoin-backed yield, and why volatility may actually be one of bitcoin's biggest advantages for long-term investors.=====================Bitget (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew) is the world's largest Universal Exchange (UEX) (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold. At launch, users can trade 79 instruments with USDT directly with the App. Users can also enjoy high liquidity and low slippage, while trading these assets with up to 500x leverage. For more information on Bitget TradFi, visit this article (https://bitget.com/support/articles/12560603846859).For more information, visit: Website (https://bitget.com/) | Twitter (https://x.com/bitget) | Telegram (https://t.me/BitgetENOfficial) | LinkedIn (https://linkedin.com/company/bitget-global/) | Discord (https://discord.com/invite/bitget)For media inquiries, please contact: media@bitget.com=====================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.=====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.=====================0:00 - Intro0:15 - Bitcoin volatility & Kevin Warsh impact4:19 - QE, deflation, & monetary regime change12:09 - The rise of digital credit & why bear markets build institutional track records 18:39 - Bitcoin treasury strategies & yield generation 

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he still believes in a growth cycle for equity markets, even as investors show growing concerns around AI.Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns around AI disruption. It's Tuesday, February 24th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week you could feel it, that anxious undercurrent in the market. The headlines were noisy, volatility ticked higher, and AI disruption, once again, dominated investor conversations. But beneath the surface level unease something important happened. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index pushed to a new relative high, keeping our broadening thesis alive and well. On one hand, investors are worried about AI driven disruption, CapEx intensity, and potential labor force reductions. On the other hand, capital is still flowing into formerly lagging areas of the market, just as the median stock is seeing its strongest earnings growth in four years. Let's unpack this. First, there's concern AI will lead to job losses. But even if that's the case, there's typically a phase-in period. Companies don't just eliminate labor overnight. Importantly, before these productivity gains are fully realized, we need broad enterprise adoption. That means building out the agentic application layer, integrating AI into workflows, retraining systems and processes. That takes time, and it is still early days in that regard. Second, what we're seeing now is typical of a major investment cycle. Volatility increases as markets challenge the pace of unbridled spending. Dispersion increases as investors debate winners and losers. Leadership rotates, sometimes sharply. There's also something different this time compared to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Today we're in an early cycle earnings backdrop. We've just emerged from what was effectively a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. So, as capital rotates out of the perceived structural losers, it's not just chasing long-term AI beneficiaries, it's also finding classic cyclical winners. On the losing side is long duration services-oriented sectors, particularly software. These areas are more sensitive to uncertainty around longer term cash flows. This area also has a large overhang of private capital deployed over the last 10 to 15 years. There are other forces at play too. Small cap growth, arguably the longest duration segment of the market, began breaking down in late January around the time Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed chair. While major indices barely reacted, more speculative areas may be responding to expectations of tighter liquidity given Warsh's, reputation as a balance sheet hawk. Finally, equity markets are typically more volatile when new Fed chairs assume office. Bottom line, our broader thesis of an early cycle rolling recovery remains intact. Market internals are supportive even if index level action feels choppy. That said, near term volatility is likely to persist as we enter a weaker seasonal window for retail demand, while liquidity remains ample, but far from abundant. With this backdrop, a quality cyclical barbell with healthcare makes sense. In small caps, the higher quality S&P 600 looks more attractive than the Russell 2000. And any short-term volatility could present opportunities to add exposure in preferred cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Industrials, and Financials. Of course, risks remain. AI adoption could accelerate faster than expected, pressuring labor markets more abruptly. Pricing power could erode as efficiency spread, and policy makers could react in ways that slow the CapEx cycle while crowded momentum positioning remains vulnerable. Nevertheless, the signal from the internals is clear. Beneath the volatility this looks less like a market rolling over, and more like one that is confirming an early cycle economic expansion. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about what the Supreme Court's tariff ruling means for mortgage rates, and what other factors could bring rates down. Related to this episode: Trump's tariffs overturned by Supreme Court in 6-3 decision HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ More info about HousingWire To learn more about Trust & Will click here. The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Tried as he might on his African safari vacation, your editor in chief could not ignore the news from back home. He saw a lot of lions, giraffes, zebras, rhinos, hippos, elephants, cheetahs, and leopards, witnessed real-life drama when a cheetah tried and failed to kill a baby wildebeest, and spent countless hours with a guide to point out all the amazing birds in the Serengeti. But all he could focus on was the Kevin Warsh nomination, the FDIC's new willingness to approve Industrial Loan Company charter applications, and the OCC's approval of stablecoin-related trust bank charters. If that was not enough to occupy his attention, he could not stop thinking about how the Small Business Administration's new Small Business Investment Company could be good news for bank treasury.Subscribe to The Bank Treasury Newsletter and Podcast at thebanktreasurynewsletter.com for professional Insights and commentary on bank treasury issues, investment portfolio strategy, and more. Listen on Apple Podcasts,Spotify, and Amazon. Follow us on LinkedIn.

The end of Jay Powell's term as Fed Chair is approaching, and markets continue to speculate about what Kevin Warsh's tenure might be like. Darius Dale sees his nomination as a signal that money growth is transitioning from the Fed to the banking sector. He explains why this is a critical change and may presage significant deregulation in the financial sector. Darius also shares opportunities he sees in the market, including in emerging markets and regional banks.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair for 2026. What does this leadership shift mean for your wallet? In this episode of Gimme Some Truth, we analyze the Warsh nomination and its immediate impact on monetary policy, interest rates, and the global markets.As Jerome Powell prepares to hand over the gavel, Kevin Warsh brings a distinct philosophy to the FOMC—balancing a "hawkish" view on the Fed's balance sheet with a unique perspective on AI-driven productivity. We dive deep into whether this marks a regime change for inflation targets and how investors should position their portfolios for the "Warsh Era."

Meta Description: Kentucky financial advisors discuss Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s impact on interest rates, market volatility, and retirement portfolios. Dupree insights on portfolio management. When market uncertainty meets changing Federal Reserve leadership, retirees need clear guidance on protecting their portfolios. In this episode of The Financial Hour, Tom Dupree Jr., James Dupree, and Mike Johnson provide direct access to portfolio managers who explain how Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair could reshape your retirement strategy through interest rate changes and market positioning. Understanding Kevin Warsh’s Approach to Federal Reserve Policy The nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has created significant market implications for retirement portfolios. As Tom Dupree explains, “Warsh is gonna have to deal with this stuff and the stock market is not gonna be his only problem.” His unconventional stance differs from traditional dovish or hawkish approaches, creating both opportunities and challenges for income-focused investors. Mike Johnson notes that Warsh “has kind of an odd view” because “he’s been critical of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.” This critical perspective on quantitative easing could fundamentally alter how markets price risk and opportunity, particularly for those managing retirement income portfolios in Kentucky and beyond. Interest Rate Environment and Portfolio Impact The Yield Curve Steepening Effect The current interest rate environment shows a steepening yield curve, where long-term rates rise while short-term rates decline. Mike explains: “You’ve seen the yield curve steep… long-term rates have been going up, while short-term rates are going down.” This creates distinct opportunities across different market segments. Small-cap stocks, which are “more tied to shorter term interest rates,” could benefit from Fed rate cuts on the short end. Meanwhile, high-multiple growth stocks face valuation pressure as long-term rates normalize. Treasury Bonds and Market Positioning The 30-year Treasury currently sits at 4.77%, having fluctuated based on market expectations. As our team discusses, the real question becomes: “Trump wants this guy to get rates lower so that housing will start moving… but rates may end up going higher.” This uncertainty requires active personalized portfolio management rather than passive acceptance of market direction. Market Rotation: From Growth to Value and Income Dividend-Focused Strategy in Volatile Markets Since October, markets have experienced significant rotation from growth expectations into cash-flow-predictable companies. As Mike observes, “You’ve seen a rotation out of growth expectations, high multiple stocks and into things where the cash flow is more predictable.” For retirees seeking consistent income, this shift validates the investment philosophy of focusing on dividend-producing assets. “Regardless of what the price is doing, all else being equal, the dividend, the income stream is still there,” Mike emphasizes. The Speed of Information and Investment Decisions The acceleration of market information flow through technology and AI creates both opportunities and risks. “Every second of every day is the market agreeing with you or disagreeing with you,” Mike notes, highlighting the double-edged nature of instant market feedback. This rapid information environment requires discipline in distinguishing between noise and actionable intelligence. As Tom points out regarding their investment approach: “We started doing in the last several years is buying more things that are just common sense type names… that works better.” Technology Sector Volatility: AI and Memory Chip Stocks Navigating the AI Investment Landscape The artificial intelligence sector has dominated headlines while creating extreme volatility. Recent examples include software stocks experiencing significant drawdowns followed by rapid 16-25% single-day gains. James observes: “An average day with no news, a stock going up 25%… that’s ridiculous.” The team’s approach involves gradual averaging into AI-related positions since September, following detailed sector analysis. “We’ve had calls with them. We wanted to understand the sector better,” Mike explains, demonstrating the value of direct access to portfolio managers who conduct primary research. Memory Chip Stock Opportunities Memory chip manufacturers present compelling valuation opportunities despite recent volatility. The team recently added a position with a forward P/E of just 12, significantly below the S&P 500’s average of approximately 22. Tom notes the stock is “up 300% in the last year” but maintains “earnings to back it.” This disciplined approach to high-growth sectors exemplifies how personalized investment management differs from mass-market strategies that either avoid volatility entirely or chase momentum without fundamental analysis. Learning from Market History: Avoiding Value Traps The Dot-Com Bubble Comparison Drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble provides perspective on current AI valuations. Tom recalls: “People were making fun of Warren Buffett towards the end of the tech bubble… ultimately he had kind of the last laugh.” Not all survivors of market corrections recover equally. Intel, for example, “survived but it took 20 plus years for it to get back to where it was” after the tech bubble burst. This underscores the importance of selectivity even within promising sectors. Management Quality Matters The discussion of Kraft Heinz illustrates how management quality impacts long-term results. Despite being “considered one of the top companies around” with Warren Buffett’s backing, “their management is horrible,” leading to poor strategic decisions and shareholder disappointment. As James concludes: “There’s a reason why CEOs and extremely well, highly talented staff are so highly paid, they’re hard to find.” Key Takeaways for Retirement Investors Kevin Warsh’s Fed leadership could mean higher long-term rates despite lower short-term rates, requiring portfolio adjustments Yield curve steepening creates opportunities in small-cap stocks while pressuring high-multiple growth names Dividend-focused strategies provide income consistency regardless of price volatility Technology sector selectivity matters more than broad exposure, with valuations and earnings fundamentals guiding decisions Management quality and business fundamentals trump thematic investing for long-term success Common sense investments in recognizable companies often outperform obscure “deep value” plays Active portfolio management adapts to rapid market changes while maintaining long-term discipline Frequently Asked Questions How will Kevin Warsh’s Fed leadership affect my retirement portfolio? Warsh’s critical stance on the Fed’s balance sheet and quantitative easing could lead to different interest rate dynamics than previous Fed chairs. Long-term rates may remain elevated even as short-term rates decline, impacting bond valuations and stock multiples. Retirement portfolios should emphasize dividend income and fundamental value rather than relying on Fed accommodation. What is a steepening yield curve and why does it matter? A steepening yield curve occurs when long-term interest rates rise relative to short-term rates. This environment typically benefits small-cap companies that rely on shorter-term financing while pressuring high-valuation growth stocks. For retirement investors, it suggests favoring income-producing assets over growth speculation. Should retirees invest in AI and technology stocks despite volatility? Technology exposure should be sized appropriately for your risk tolerance and income needs. Our approach involves gradual position building in fundamentally sound companies with reasonable valuations, never risking retirement income needs on speculative positions. Direct access to portfolio managers helps navigate these decisions. How do I know if I’m in a value trap versus a true opportunity? Value traps lack the three essential elements: quality management, sustainable earnings, and reasonable business prospects. True opportunities combine all three elements with temporarily depressed valuations. This requires ongoing research and analysis rather than simple valuation metrics. What makes dividend-focused investing effective in volatile markets? Dividend income provides cash flow independent of price fluctuations. As Mike explains, “regardless of what the price is doing… the income stream is still there.” This creates portfolio stability while volatile prices create rebalancing opportunities for patient investors. Take Control of Your Retirement Portfolio Market transitions create both risk and opportunity. The difference between portfolio growth and disappointment often comes down to having personalized investment management with direct access to portfolio managers who actively research positions and adapt to changing conditions. At Dupree Financial Group, our team-based approach means you benefit from comprehensive analysis rather than a single perspective. We focus on income-producing investments, transparent fee structures, and strategies designed specifically for retirees and pre-retirees aged 50 and above. Don’t navigate Fed policy changes and market volatility alone. Call (859) 233-0400 for a complimentary portfolio review or schedule your appointment directly on our website at dupreefinancial.com. Listen to more episodes and insights in our Market Commentary archive. The post How Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Could Impact Your Retirement Portfolio: Interest Rates, Market Volatility, and Investment Strategy appeared first on Dupree Financial.

The Trump administration is celebrating a string of economic milestones as the President enters the second year of his second term.   The Dow reached historic highs this month, closing above 50,000 for the first time in its 129-year history. Meanwhile, a major shift in monetary policy is underway as President Trump has tapped Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman.   Kevin O'Leary—businessman, investor, and "Shark Tank" icon—joined The FOX News Rundown host Dave Anthony earlier this week to discuss the markets, and how the economy is evolving through the emergence of AI, cryptocurrency, and the booming market for high-value collectibles.   They also discuss O'Leary's surprising role in the Oscar-nominated film Marty Supreme, why he decided to try his hand at acting, and the iconic film franchise he'd like to be part of.   We often have to trim our interviews during the week, but we thought you'd like to hear the full conversation. Today on the FOX News Rundown Extra, we share our entire interview with "Mr. Wonderful" Kevin O'Leary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Trump recently nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.  In October 2022, Kevin spoke on What Happens Next along with my old boss Myron Scholes who was the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics.In this episode I include excerpts from that previous meeting as well as an additional interview with John Cochrane who is a Professor of Finance and Economics at Stanford's Graduate School of Business and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute, and he will discuss the challenges that Kevin will face in his new job. Get full access to What Happens Next in 6 Minutes with Larry Bernstein at www.whathappensnextin6minutes.com/subscribe

The Trump administration is celebrating a string of economic milestones as the President enters the second year of his second term.   The Dow reached historic highs this month, closing above 50,000 for the first time in its 129-year history. Meanwhile, a major shift in monetary policy is underway as President Trump has tapped Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman.   Kevin O'Leary—businessman, investor, and "Shark Tank" icon—joined The FOX News Rundown host Dave Anthony earlier this week to discuss the markets, and how the economy is evolving through the emergence of AI, cryptocurrency, and the booming market for high-value collectibles.   They also discuss O'Leary's surprising role in the Oscar-nominated film Marty Supreme, why he decided to try his hand at acting, and the iconic film franchise he'd like to be part of.   We often have to trim our interviews during the week, but we thought you'd like to hear the full conversation. Today on the FOX News Rundown Extra, we share our entire interview with "Mr. Wonderful" Kevin O'Leary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Trump administration is celebrating a string of economic milestones as the President enters the second year of his second term.   The Dow reached historic highs this month, closing above 50,000 for the first time in its 129-year history. Meanwhile, a major shift in monetary policy is underway as President Trump has tapped Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman.   Kevin O'Leary—businessman, investor, and "Shark Tank" icon—joined The FOX News Rundown host Dave Anthony earlier this week to discuss the markets, and how the economy is evolving through the emergence of AI, cryptocurrency, and the booming market for high-value collectibles.   They also discuss O'Leary's surprising role in the Oscar-nominated film Marty Supreme, why he decided to try his hand at acting, and the iconic film franchise he'd like to be part of.   We often have to trim our interviews during the week, but we thought you'd like to hear the full conversation. Today on the FOX News Rundown Extra, we share our entire interview with "Mr. Wonderful" Kevin O'Leary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Our Global Head of FX and EM Strategy James Lord and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discuss what's driving the U.S. policy for the dollar and the outlook for other global currencies.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Lord: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Global Head of FX and EM Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter:  And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. James Lord: Today we're talking about U.S. currency policy and whether recent news on intervention and nominations to the Fed change anything for the outlook of the dollar. It's Thursday, February 19th at 3pm in London. So it's been an interesting few weeks in currency markets. Plenty of dollar selling going on But then, we got news that Kevin Warsh is going to be nominated to Chair of the Board of Governors. And that sent the dollar back higher, reminding everybody that monetary policy and central bank policy still matter. So, in the aftermath of the dollar-yen rate check, investors started to discuss whether or not the U.S. might be starting to target a weaker currency. Not just be comfortable with a weaker currency, but actually explicitly target a weaker currency, which would presumably be a shift away from the stronger strong dollar policy that Secretary Bessent referenced. So, what is your understanding? What do you think the strong dollar policy actually means? Seth Carpenter: Strong dollar policy, that's a phrase, that's a term; it's a concept that lots of Secretaries of the Treasury have used for a long time. And I specifically point to the Secretary of the Treasury because at least in the recent couple of decades, there has been in standard Washington D.C. approach to things, a strong dichotomy that currency policy is the policy of the Treasury Department, not of the central bank. And that's always been important. I remember when I was working at the Treasury Department, that was still part of the talking points that the secretary used. However, you also hear Secretaries of the Treasury say that exchange rates should be market determined; that that's a key part of it. And with the back and forth between the U.S. and China, for example, there was a lot of discussion: Was the Chinese government adjusting or manipulating the value of their currency? And there was a push that currencies should be market determined. And so, if you think about those two things, at the same time – pushing really hard that the dollar should be strong, pushing really hard that currencies should be market determined – you start to very quickly run into a bit of an intellectual tension. And I think all of that is pretty intentional. What does it mean? It means that there's no single clear definition of strong dollar policy. It's a little bit of the eye of the beholder. It's an acknowledgement that the dollar plays a clear key role in global markets, and it's good for the U.S. for that to happen. That's traditionally been what it means. But it has not meant a specific number relative to any other currency or any basket of currency. It has not meant a specific value based on some sort of long run theoretical fair value. It is always meant to be a very vague, deliberately so, very vague concept. James Lord: So, in that version of what the strong dollar policy means, presumably the sort of ambiguity still leaves space for the Treasury to conduct some kind of intervention in dollar-yen, if they wanted to. And that would still be very much consistent with that definition of the strong dollar policy. I also, in the back of my head, always wonder whether the strong dollar policy has anything to do with the dollar's global role. And the sort of foreign policy power that gives the Treasury in sanctions policy. And other areas where, you know, they can control dollar flows and so on. And that gives the U.S. government some leverage. And that allows them to project strength in foreign policy. Has that anything to do with the traditional versions of the strong policy? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. I think all of that is part and parcel to it. But it also helps to explain a little bit of why there's never going to be a very crisp, specific numerical definition of what a strong dollar policy is.So, first and foremost, I think the discussion of intervention; I think it is, in lots of ways, consistent, especially if you have that more expansive definition of strong dollar, i.e. the currency that's very important, or most important in global financial markets and in global trade. So, I think in that regard, you could have both the intervention and the strong dollar at the same time. I will add though that the administration has not had a clear, consistent view in this regard, in the following very specific sense. When now Governor Myron was chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, he penned a piece on the Council of Economics website that said that the reserve currency status of the dollar had brought with it some adverse effects on the U.S., and in terms of what happened in terms of trade flows and that sort of thing.So again, this administration has also tried to find ways to increase the nuance about what the currency policy is, and putting forward the idea that too strong of a dollar in the FX sense. In the sense that you and your colleagues in FX markets would think about is a high valuation of the dollar relative to other currencies – could have contributed to these trade deficits that they're trying to push back against. So, I would say we went from the previous broad, perhaps vague definition of strong dollar. And now we're in an even murkier regime where there could be other motivations for changing the value of the dollar. Seth Carpenter: So, James, that's been our view in terms of the Fed, but let me come back to you because there are lots of different forces going on at the same time. The central bank is clearly an important one, but it's only one factor among many. So, if you think about where the dollar is likely to go over the next three months, over the next six months, maybe over the next year, what is it that you and your team are looking for? Where are the questions that you're getting from clients? James Lord: Yeah, so when we came into the start of this year, we did have a bearish view on the dollar. I would say that the drivers of it, we'd split up into two components. The first component was a lot more of the conventional stuff about growth expectations, what we see the Fed doing. And then there was another component to it where – what we defined as risk premia, I suppose. The more unconventional catalysts that can push the dollar around, as we saw, come very much to market attention during the second quarter of last year, when the Liberation Day tariffs were announced and the dollar weakened far in excess of what rate differentials would imply. And so, I would say so far this year, the majority of the dollar move that we've seen, the weakening in the dollar that we've seen, has been driven by that second component. What we've kind of called risk premia. And the conversations that, you know, investors have been having about U.S. policy towards Greenland, and then more recently, the conversations that people have been having around FX intervention following the dollar-yen rate check. These sorts of things have been really driving the currency up until , when the Kevin Warsh nomination was announced. When we look at the extent of the risk premia that we see in the dollar now, it is pretty close to the levels that we saw in the second quarter of last year, which is to say it's pretty big. Euro dollar would probably be closer to 1-10, if we were just thinking about the impact of rate differentials and none of this risk premia stuff over the past year had materialized. That's obviously a very big gap. And I think for now that gap probably isn't going to widen much further, particularly now that market attention is much more focused on the impact that Kevin Warsh will have on markets and the dollar. We also have, you know, the ECB and the Bank of England; , house call for those two central banks is for them to be cutting rates. That could also put some downward pressure on those currencies, relative to the dollar. So all of that is to say for some of the major currencies within the G10 space, like sterling, like euro against the dollar, this probably isn't the time to be pushing a weaker dollar. But I think there are some other currencies which still have some opportunity in the short term, but also over the longer run as well. And that's really in emerging markets. So all of that is to say, I think there is a strong monetary policy anchor for emerging market currencies. This is an asset class that has been under invested in for some time. And we do think that there are more gains there in the short term and over the medium term as well. Seth Carpenter: So on that topic, James, would you then agree? So if I think about some of the EM central banks, think about Banxico, think about the BCB – where the dollar falling in value, their currency gaining in value – that could actually have a couple things go on to allow the central bank, maybe to ease more than they would've otherwise. One, in terms of imported inflation, their currency strengthening on a relative basis probably helps with a bit lower inflation. And secondly, a lot of EM central banks have to worry a bit about defending their currency, especially in a volatile geopolitical time. And you were pointing to sort of lower volatility more broadly. So is this a reinforcing trend perhaps, where if the dollar is coming down a little bit, especially against DM currencies, it allows more external stability for those central banks, allowing them to just focus on their domestic mandates, which could also lead to a further reduction in their domestic rates, which might be good for investors. James Lord: Yeah, I think there's something to that. given the strength of emerging market currencies. There should be, over time, more space for them to ease if the domestic conditions warrant it. But so far we're not really seeing many EM central banks taking advantage of that opportunity. There is a sort of general pattern with a lot of EMs that they're staying pretty conservative and more hawkish than I think what markets have generally been expecting, and that's been supporting their currencies. I think it's interesting to think about what would happen if they're on the flip side. What would happen if they did start to push monetary easing at a faster pace? I'm sure on the days where that happens, the currencies would weaken a little bit. However, if the market backdrop is generally constructive on risk, and investors want to have exposure to EM – then what could ultimately happen is that asset managers will simply buy more bonds as they price in a lower path for central bank policy over time. And that causes more capital inflows. And that sort of overwhelms the knee jerk effect from the more dovish stance of monetary policy on the currency. You get more duration flows coming into the market and that helps their currency. So, yes, if EM central banks push back with more dovish policy, significantly, it could pose some short-term volatility. But assuming we remain a low-vol environment globally, I would use those as buying opportunities. Seth Carpenter: Thanks, James. It's been great being on the show with you. Thank you for inviting me, and I hope to be able to come back and join you at some point in the future if you'll have me. James Lord: Thank you, Seth, for making the time to talk. And to all you listening, thank you for lending us your ears. Let us know what you think of this podcast by leaving us a review. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, tell a friend or colleague about us today.

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, calls the Federal Reserve "borderline cruel" after FOMC minutes revealed several participants wanted rate hikes despite Americans' financial wellbeing hitting record lows. Danielle argues we're already in a labor market recession that "won't be acknowledged for years but is undeniable to the people who are in it," pointing to unprecedented data: 12 consecutive months of negative payroll revisions, 419,000 net job losses when excluding education and health services, seasonal adjustment anomalies adding 140,000 phantom jobs in January, and unemployment survey response rates at record lows making the data unreliable. She highlights that Truflation shows inflation at just 0.7% while the Fed maintains hawkish rhetoric, that 52% of college graduates are underemployed with another graduating class arriving in two months, and that AI is destroying entry-level jobs in finance, accounting, and architecture without any retraining programs in place. Danielle warns about the societal implications of Gen Z and millennials (52.5% of voters) increasingly using buy now pay later for basic necessities like medical bills and utilities, while others use it for vacations with no intention of paying it back. She questions whether Kevin Warsh will hold to his stated principles about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet or cave to market pressure like Powell did in 2018, and reveals that Fed governor Michael Barr is already hinting at expanded social safety nets or UBI to address AI-driven unemployment. Danielle refuses to "gaslight Americans" about the economy and emphasizes the urgent need to think about retraining workers and the societal implications of mass youth unemployment.Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 0:52 FOMC minutes: Several participants want rate hikes 1:46 Americans' financial wellbeing at record lows — the disconnect 3:31 Truflation at 0.7% — what the Fed is missing 5:27 What's the Fed missing on the labor side? 7:06 Labor recession in plain sight — concentrated in non-cyclical sectors8:28 Buy now pay later for medical and dental bills 9:32 Gen Z and millennials: Taking on debt with no intention to pay 11:00 A revolt against the system? 12:15 The Fed didn't listen to your open letters 13:40 Rate hike talk while small business borrowing costs are "prohibitively tight" 14:59 Fed being sanguine on credit delinquencies 16:14 What would be the responsible thing for the Fed to do? 17:12 "It's getting personal" — Americans worried about losing their own jobs 18:02 52% of college graduates are underemployed 18:42 Is this AI or just an excuse? 20:08 What happens in 2028 if the pendulum swings? 21:32 Kevin Warsh — will he stick to his principles? 24:01 Is the Fed too beholden to the market? 25:15 Unemployment survey response rate at record lows 27:23 Base case for the economy — labor market recession continues 28:56 What keeps you up at night and what makes you hopeful?

Andrew Wells reacts to yesterday's FOMC minutes, arguing the members are trying to react “to the market.” On rates, he would “not be surprised” to see the 10-year at 4.5 this year, and discusses the need for inflation to move down before any cuts. He doesn't expect any cuts before Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair, and thinks that the timeline could be pushed further out. He likes defensive names and the utilities sector, including Duke Energy (DUK). He also thinks crypto could be very volatile from here, even moving back to highs.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Ed Siddell breaks down the latest economic data, noting that durable goods orders are higher and arguing the economy is heading in the right direction. “We just have to show a little more affordability.” He likes Kevin Warsh as a Fed Chair nominee, calling him “very hawkish on inflation” and anticipating lowered rates. Ed thinks we could be 75-100 basis points lower by the end of the year. He remains a “goldbug” and sees a buying opportunity in precious metals; he's also long nuclear.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Connor Browne previews tomorrow's economic data prints, which include a GDP reading and the PCE report. He anticipates a “push and pull” between Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh and President Trump as the year goes on. He's looking for opportunity in valuation dispersion, hunting outside of the large cap names. Connor also gives his perspective on the energy market and the transformation from fossil fuels to renewables. He's also very excited about agentic AI.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Gold is testing the $5,000 barrier — and the charts are flashing warning signs. Kerry Lutz and Jerry Robinson dive into gold and silver as markets test extreme levels. A rising 50-day moving average offers support, but long weekly wicks show momentum could be slowing. Will it break through, or pause first? Speculation around Kevin Warsh and shifting Fed expectations may be driving the pullback. If the hawkish premium fades, rates could ease — and gold reacts. Silver just went vertical — then crashed back. Volatility is insane. Yet the fundamentals remain rock-solid: industrial demand from solar and data centers is still building. The lesson is clear: don't panic. Diversify. Dollar-cost average. See spikes as opportunity, not fear. Strategy also matters. Substack is winning over WordPress for publishing, mailing, and monetization. Kerry shares early paid-subscriber traction, teases Living the Silverback Lifestyle, and outlines a new parking-enforcement book paired with litigation and a public campaign under the National Association of American Defrauded Parkers. Markets are wild. Policy is shifting. Psychology is stretched. Smart investors stay steady — and strike when others hesitate. Find Jerry here: https://followthemoney.com Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5  

In this special, live recording of The Important Part, SoFi's Head of Investment Strategy Liz Thomas asks the question many investors are thinking about: when – if ever – will the markets cool off? She sits down with two of the top critical thinkers in the world of finance: Tom Lee, Co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat, and Michael Lewis, the New York Times bestselling author of Moneyball, The Big Short, The Blind Side, and Going Infinite. Together, they work through the most pressing questions facing investors in 2026. Discover why retail investors are outperforming hedge funds, whether gold has peaked, and if Bitcoin's 40% dip signals a crypto winter. Lee explains why the recent AI-driven software tumble could actually reflect corporate productivity gains, while Lewis shares his contrarian gold bet and why he's “long fear.” They tackle the independence of the Federal Reserve under nominee Kevin Warsh, the risks of AI job displacement, and whether the federal government could nationalize failing AI companies. Plus: crypto's Black Swan events and what flash-frozen food teaches us about technological disruption. For more, read Liz's column every Thursday at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠On The Money⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ by SoFi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and follow Liz on Twitter ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@LizThomasStrat⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Additional resources: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠On The Money⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: Sign up for SoFi's newsletter for intel, insights, and inspo to help you get your money right. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Investing 101 Center⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: At SoFi, we believe investing is for everyone — which is why we've created a hub with info for beginners and experts alike. Start exploring to get investment education, advice, resources, and more. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Wealth Investing Guide⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: Information you need to know to make your money work harder for you. This podcast should be used for informational purposes only and not deemed as a recommendation. Our Automated investing is via SoFi Wealth LLC, and is a registered investment advisor. Our Active investing is via SoFi securities LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest® platforms, please visit www.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SoFi.com/Legal⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. ©2026 Social Finance, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

In the Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, they discuss the potential impact of AI on the labor market and what Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair could mean for the Fed's balance sheet.

Taylor Riggs, co-anchor of The Big Money Show on Fox Business, joins to discuss Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as Fed Chair, the impact of interest rate cuts on inflation and the housing market, and the balancing act of reducing the Fed's $6 trillion balance sheet. She explains how supply-side economics and AI-driven disinflation could influence monetary policy, and touches on broader economic implications of AI integration and technology infrastructure. The conversation also briefly pivots to voter fraud issues, setting the stage for the next segment. Hashtags: #TaylorRiggs #FedChair #KevinWarsh #MonetaryPolicy #AIImpact #Economy #InterestRates #Inflation

Dan Buck fills in for Mark Cox, opening with the avalanche near Lake Tahoe and rescue efforts for missing skiers. He transitions to the Beyond Meat stock collapse and RFK Jr.'s warnings about processed foods, highlighting corporate and health concerns. The hour then dives into the EU Digital Services Act, Hillary Clinton's advocacy, and Jonathan Turley's constitutional perspective on free speech and impending U.S. implications. Taylor Riggs joins to analyze Kevin Warsh's potential Fed chairmanship, interest rate strategies, inflation, and AI's economic impact. The hour closes with Nick Shirley exposing voter fraud in California, showing extreme registration irregularities, including a dog successfully voting. Hashtags: #AvalancheRescue #BeyondMeat #ProcessedFoods #DigitalServicesAct #FreeSpeech #FedChair #InterestRates #AIImpact #VoterFraud #MarkCoxShow

Brad Long reacts to the latest FOMC minutes and notes that dissension is considered uncommon now within the Fed, but not historically. He says the economy is “off to the races,” noting that unemployment and GDP growth are, unusually, about the same percentile. Brad argues that Warsh as Fed Chair might start looking forward rather than being data dependent, which he describes as looking backwards. On AI, he thinks that SaaS may lose “pricing power” to AI but argues that it's too expensive to rebuild systems from scratch with the technology.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

President Trump has made it obvious he wants a Federal Reserve chair who will push for lower interest rates. Does Kevin Warsh fit the bill? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Walsh joins Phil Adler to tell us the answer is complicated.

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, predicts that over the next 18 months, markets will see both new highs and new lows amid heightened volatility. Ted currently holds 50% of his portfolio in short-term Treasuries (recently extending some to 3-year), waiting for opportunities as he notes that second years of presidential terms historically return just 1% and typically experience mid-year declines. He argues that financial repression—holding rates low while letting inflation run—is the only way out of America's $40 trillion debt crisis, which is why he's positioned in hard assets including gold, silver, miners, energy, and commodities. Ted recently trimmed silver positions after a 200% move in 2025, expecting consolidation back to $50-60 (from $76), and warns that hidden leverage is at record levels: margin debt as a percentage of market cap is at all-time highs, high-net-worth investors have massive off-balance-sheet securities-based lines of credit, and leveraged ETFs have exploded fourfold. He's critical of private equity for overpaying for companies and using secondary funds as a "gimmick," and predicts this will be a year for active stock pickers as the regime shifts from passive buying to passive selling when baby boomers (averaging age 71 this year) begin withdrawing funds.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Ted Oakley 1:14 Big picture macro view — dislocation since mid-October 2:59 Year 2 of presidential terms historically poor performers 4:05 Why second years are difficult 5:23 How to prepare for drawdowns 6:51 Why Ted holds 50% in short-term Treasuries 8:21 Can't own long bonds for the next 10 years 9:17 Are we past the point of no return on debt? 11:04 What $1 trillion really means — $100k/hour for 1,100 years 12:03 What's the end game? 13:02 Financial repression — the only way out 13:34 Regime change to hard assets 14:19 Gold and silver — took some profits 16:25 Trading in and out vs. staying long 18:21 Price levels for getting back into silver and gold 19:32 Regime change for hard, durable assets 21:06 Are we due for a major pullback or bear market? 23:09 Hidden risks — margin debt at record levels 25:12 High net worth debt hidden off balance sheet 27:08 Private credit and private equity — trouble brewing 29:40 Would the Fed intervene in a generational bear market? 31:09 The thesis on oil 33:22 Kevin Warsh as Fed chair — Ted's reaction 34:24 The Fed doesn't really matter for stock picking 34:52 Where are you finding opportunities today? 36:58 At what level would you deploy the 50% cash? 38:25 Takeaway for investors this year 39:54 Active stock pickers will outperform 41:05 Prediction for a year from now 42:22 Where to find Ted and closing thoughts

Register here to attend the live virtual event "Why Central Florida is the Year's Most Compelling Housing Market" on Thursday, February 19th at 8pm Eastern. Keith explores how a shift in mindset can change the way you build wealth, why so many new landlords are entering the market, and what recent economic trends could mean for future rents.  You'll also hear how one Florida investor is navigating a changing housing landscape, and learn about a timely opportunity in one of the country's fastest‑growing real estate markets—all without needing to be a hands-on landlord. Resources: Register for the event at GREwebinars.com Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/593 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the risk of delayed gratification is denied gratification. There's a new wave of landlords. Wages are rising faster than both inflation and home prices. Learn what that's going to mean for rents. Hear the voices of five different Federal Reserve chairs, then GRE announces our biggest event of the year, and you're invited today on get rich education.   Corey Coates  0:32   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Keith Weinhold  1:16   mid south home buyers, with over two decades is the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your return on investment as their North Star. It's no wonder smart investors line up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone headquartered in Memphis, with their globally attractive cash flows, mid south has an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and 4000 houses renovated, there is zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate with an industry leading three and a half year average renter term. Every home they offer you will have brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter in an astounding price range, 100 to 150k GET TO KNOW mid south enjoy cash flow from day one at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com   Corey Coates  2:19   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:35   Welcome to GRE from the Adriatic Sea to the Atlantic Ocean and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. Sometimes we all need a mindset reset, and this can include me. Sometimes. James clear, the author of atomic habits, says there are four types of wealth, financial wealth, which is money, social wealth, which is status, time, wealth which is freedom, and physical wealth, which is health. Be wary of jobs that seduce you with one and two but rob you of three and four. That is to say, be careful with jobs that seduce you with financial and social wealth but rob you of time and physical wealth that is definitely going to happen to you during your life, especially early in your working career. But many people, even most people, they don't do much about this. They just go on and on, selling their soul to their employer for decades. Sometimes paychecks aren't compensation. They're a bribe from an employer to give up your dreams early in your career, delayed gratification actually makes some sense, because you need capital formation, you need down payments, you need dry powder. That is totally fair and the time in your life for delayed gratification. But there's a point that most people miss, the point where delayed gratification quietly mutates into denied gratification. This is huge. Most people miss this inflection point. When is this point in your life? That's when I'll do it later becomes, well, I guess I never did it at all. They look up at what they've got at age 65 and realize that they have a respectable title. They still wear Dockers pants. They have a 401, K that they must start paying tax on, and knees that creak louder than. The front door. Compound Interest hardly outpaces taxes and inflation. That's just going to keep you in one spot, you know, and you're never going to get that time back. There is no do over there. So you need to get to the point where you can be more frugal with your time than your money. Younger people have a harder time adopting this mindset, and that's a little natural, because they have more time and less money. Sooner than later, you must desperately get financially free so that you can simply be your self workaholics, optimize income instead of assets, and you can't let that happen, because labor does not compound and capital does compound, your quality of life will exceed your cost of living when your life is funded by what you own, not by what you do that takes a different mindset. You can either be a conformer or you can build wealth when you invest in real estate that pays five ways. It's like what you're doing is buying future Tuesdays, where you never have to work again and then later, add on future Wednesdays, where you never have to work again because you got the compound leverage instead of the impotent compound interest. I mean, just consider your two and a half million dollar portfolio that is passively doing the same work as someone who sells 40 to 50 hours a week of their life away for 100k in yearly salary. All right, maybe you're thinking, Oh, that all sounds thought provoking, but if you're not engaged on that, it can sound airy and philosophical and even risky. It's sort of like, yeah, you're cueing the acoustic guitar music and slow motion images of someone pensively gazing at a sunset.   Keith Weinhold  7:12   All right, what is the concrete plan? It's not all about mindset. It only starts with mindset. You got to make that actionable. Well, we constantly provide concrete plans for you here on this show, and I've got another concrete plan for you toward the end of the show today. This harkens back to what I discussed with you seven weeks ago, seven episodes ago on the show. That's when I discussed the world's first billionaire, John D Rockefeller and his enduring quote from about 100 years ago, he who works all day has no time to make money. Yeah, that's the quote a little review. What you learned seven episodes ago is that Rockefeller meant, if you spend your life doing tasks, you're never going to rise high enough to own things that pay you for life. The bottom line here is that earning a living is a distinctly different activity than building wealth. That's what we're talking about here.    Keith Weinhold  8:14   Well, there is a new wave of landlords entering the market, and they are reshaping what owning rentals looks like. One survey by rental platform avail of nearly 2000 users. It's really influential. It found that 53% of landlords became landlords in the last five years. So you have a lot of new landlords with the most 17% of landlords entering the market in just the last year, most purchased a property specifically to rent it out, and 1/3 sort of backed into this business by renting out their former residence. Of course, some people want to rent out their former residence today, if they got locked into that sexy owner occupied three and 4% financing from 2022 and earlier, the survey went on to tell us with some really good takeaways here, 72% of landlords manage between one and four units, and this avail survey. I mean, it's just another one that shows that the majority of landlords operate small portfolios, classic mom and pop investors. That one's not too surprising. The top three reasons that landlords gave for entering the rental market, they're pretty interesting. The number one reason for getting into this at 41% of respondents is building long term wealth. Next 33% for generating passive income, and the third most popular one, it's a distant third, it is preparing for retirement at 13% so building long term wealth is the number one reason for getting into this, and that is the right reason. Them when it comes to ownership structure, 64% said that they own the property individually, whether that's through a single member LLC or in their own name, doing it, yeah, individually, rather than with a family member or a business partner. So really, the summary of this terrific, recent avail landlord survey is that if you're just getting started, you're not alone. A lot of people are most own properties solely in their own name, and the number one reason for doing it is to build long term wealth. Now there's another pervasive set of economic trends out there in the broader economy, but it's really a benefit for real estate investors, and that is the fact that wage growth has now outpaced consumer price growth for three years. Yeah, another way to say that is that wage growth has outpaced inflation for fully three years. Yeah, most people just aren't feeling it yet. So you might be taken somewhat aback by that, and why aren't people feeling that wage growth is faster than inflation, the pandemic inflation spike that was so huge, it was like getting hit with a freight train, and then someone tells you, good news, the train has stopped. Yeah, that's nice. You are still lying on the tracks, rubbing your ribs. That's because we're all still absorbing spiked prices for everything from a lumber two by four to a York Peppermint Patty, year over year, wages are up 3.8% and consumer inflation is 3% All right, so wages above inflation, that means things are getting a little more affordable, but both wages and inflation have grown faster than home prices, which have only grown about one and a half percent, and this is all per the BLS in the FHFA, so wage growth Being more than double home price growth. Well, that trend really makes properties more affordable, but historically, they're still not that affordable. Everybody knows that home prices soared until about 2023 that was the turning point, and now wages are in their catch up phase. All right, but what really matters to real estate investors is, when will this wage growth translate to rent growth, historically, big rent growth that lags big home price growth by about two to four years. So you have the big home price growth, big rent growth hits two to four years later, historically. Now, if that holds true, we should finally see substantial rent growth this year or next year. Rent growth has still been pretty soft in the one to four unit space, and even there are rent decreases in the overbuilt apartment space. Future income growth promises to make homes more affordable. Affordability has already improved, with mortgage rates hovering near three year lows. There's one problem, though, that most people overlook, and that is this wage growth has been skewed toward the higher income deciles, renters, especially workforce renters, they don't feel it until later. So this 3.8% wage growth, it's heavier for higher income people, and it's lighter for lower income people. I swear, when there are enriching economic trends, it always hits the higher income people first, and it doesn't trickle down until later. So if you as an investor, are positioned before the rent wave hits, you are surfing, and if you wait to feel it, you're swimming behind the boat. Higher wages should translate to higher rents in the next one to two years. And as far as some other forces, as we all know, the man occupying the oval office in the White House, the President, he wants lower rates. The current Fed Chair isn't so willing to do that. The next one, the one he appointed, Kevin Warsh, who arrives in May. He seems more receptive to lower rates, but it's gonna take a while. It all moves so slow. We have had 16 fed chairs before worsh over 112 years. And look how much of an econ nerd Are you? Are you as bad as me? These voices are in chronological order, and I can name each speaker.   Corey Coates  14:47   You're going to have to live with the fact that forecasts have a range of uncertainty, irrational exuberance.   Corey Coates  14:54   In my opening remarks, I'd like to briefly first review today's policy decision, but   Corey Coates  14:58   first I'll review recent. Economic developments in the Outlook, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves.   Keith Weinhold  15:06   If you can name each of those speakers, I would love to give you a free property from gremarketplace.com but I can't quite swing that in order. Those voices are Paul Volcker. He served from 1979 to 87 he was known for crushing double digit inflation by jacking rates to near 20% it was painful medicine, but it worked the next one. Alan Greenspan sir, from 1987 to 2006 that was a long reign, almost 20 years. He oversaw the 90s economic boom, the.com bubble and the early housing bubble. Years so far, Greenspan is the only Fed chair that I have met in person. Then Ben Bernanke, he was the Fed chair from 2006 to 2014 he took the helm right before the 2008 financial crisis. He rolled out QE and emergency lending on an historic scale. In fact, he was nicknamed helicopter Ben because it's like he would print so much money that he just dropped it out of huge sacks, dollar bills in huge sacks, dropping them from an airplane, metaphorically, not literally. Then Janet Yellen, 2014 to 2018 she kind of continued this post crisis normalization, and she was the first woman to chair the Fed and then, of course, Jerome Powell serving from 2018 to 2026 he navigated the covid stimulus, ultra low rates. And then after that, the fastest rate hiking cycle in decades to fight inflation back in 2022 being the Fed chair is the most important job in this economy, and over the decades, there's been more of a movement of the fed into the public eye. You just hear about them more in the media than you used to. But like I touched on last week, it just still doesn't mean as much to real estate investors as a lot of people think, people sometimes look for someone else to come save them, but it's more about you and the choices that you make that's what means more housing supply and demand means more real estate investors have profited during every one of those Fed Chair reigns, which go back almost 50 years from Volcker to today, I think everybody knows that fed chairs don't control property prices, and they don't even control long term interest rates. What's a little paradoxical is that Trump has been vocal about how he wants more affordable home prices, yet at the same time he wants existing homeowners to have their home prices go up, those two things seem to be in tension. They're in conflict with each other. The only way you can possibly get both are through lower mortgage rates. But is he going to see later today you as a GRE follower, you don't have to wait for lower rates income, property still feels less affordable than it did five years ago, because it is that's real but here's the key distinction in what makes real estate investors different from owner occupied homeowners. Affordability isn't about the price of the property, it's about whether the property pays for itself and grows your net worth while inflation does the heavy lifting. Higher prices don't kill investors. Inaction during inflation does you're not buying a say, $350,000 property. You're controlling it with $70,000 while your tenant and inflation do the rest. We do not rely on hope or appreciation. We start with income tax benefits and debt pay down and then leverage appreciation typically happens as well. GRE only succeeds when investors close on properties that perform long term. One bad referral costs us years of trust, so we don't do that. The best question for you really isn't whether property is affordable. The question is whether owning an investment property is better than inflation compounding against you. That's the investor lens today.    Keith Weinhold  19:24   coming up next week on the show here, we're going to discuss apartments. It's been a truly be leaguered sector, where their prices have fallen 2030, and 40% in many markets. We've discussed apartments here on the show a lot before, like with Grant Cardone on episode 264, with Ken McElroy, countless times with me monologuing about apartments. And next week, we're going to talk to a multifamily educator who is known as the apartment King. Later on, a future show, we've got the return of the financial. Firebrand, and lately, the financial comedian Garrett Gunderson, a powerful speaker. That's definitely going to be interesting. As for today, you'll hear a first person account from a Florida resident about why he's moved to Florida and why he invests there. You've heard of this guy before. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 593, of get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  20:26   Flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem property or your whole portfolio, through a 721, exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, it's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties qualify@flockhomes.com slash GRE. That's f, l, O, C, K, homes.com/G. R, E,    Keith Weinhold  21:02   you know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program. When you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products. They've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach directly again. 1-937-795-8989,   Keith Weinhold  22:13   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   Zack Lemaster  22:47   this is rental retirement Zach Lee Masters. Listen to get rich education with Keith bleinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  23:02   I'd like to welcome in our own in house. GRE investment coach, we haven't had you on the show since November. Welcome in Naresh.   Naresh Vissa  23:11   Kwith, It's a pleasure to be back on the show. Thanks for having me on.   Keith Weinhold  23:16   We're just playing it all casual and comfortable here in house. You were just finishing up, what ice cream or a container of something right before we got started   Naresh Vissa  23:25   here, all done with the ice cream and ready to record the podcast.   Keith Weinhold  23:29   Yeah, all right, keeping cool for our chat. Well, you know you do live in Florida, so you must have your own perspective on the Florida market. You live in the Tampa area, and the reason that that's a germane topic is that's something we've been talking about here lately as really an opportunity, and that is because most of Florida has seen some temporary property price attrition, but yet more population growth is projected. So that's why we feel like that's temporary. But why don't you tell us about what you see on the ground there?   Naresh Vissa  24:07   Keith, I've lived in Florida for 11 and a half years now. That's Tampa, Florida. I like Florida a lot. I moved here December 2014 for similar reasons that many people are moving here today. So I moved to Florida in December 2014 because of no state income tax, because of, at the time, lower cost of living. Florida was one of the states I got hit the hardest during the 2008 financial crisis, or nothing called in a real estate crisis, Florida, Arizona, those few others got hit really, really hard. So Florida at that time was still rebounding from 2008 so I moved for the affordability, the no income tax, of course, the weather better. Weather. And then most places in the Northeast I've lived so weather is a big deal when it comes to real estate and geography as well. These are all different reasons to move to Florida, and these are the reasons why I moved to Florida. I was also single in my 20s, so I was much younger at the time. I was single in my mid 20s, and Florida is very good for that too. For 20 something Gen Z folks today, Florida is definitely a place that they should consider. I moved down here and I fell in love with it. From day one. I got a place living right on the water, a beach. Got beaches everywhere. Florida's tour. And I say all this because these are all enticing features of Florida, for renters, for tenants, for snowbirds. I had never even heard of what a snowbird was until I moved down to Florida, where you have people who literally live here for seven months of the year, and then they live in their home state for five months of the year. So that's generally what it is, seven months in Florida, five months in their home state, which can be the people I know personally are from New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Ohio. The list goes on and on. Basically anywhere that's north of Florida could be considered a snowbird area. So that's another reason why Florida is a very hot market. Now, obviously, during the pandemic, in end of 2020, people started moving to Florida in droves. Part of it was politically, because you didn't have the restrictions that other states had during that crazy time that we lived through. And another part of it was work from home. So similar to me, in 2014 when I became full time work from home, I wanted to move somewhere for all those different reasons that I gave you the total package, and Florida fit that there was maybe one other state that fit the bill, based on everything that I told you, probably one other state. That's it. So Florida fit the bill, and that's why I think Florida is always going to be despite the hurricane prep, Florida is always going to be a destination that people will seriously look at whether you're older, retirement age or younger. Like I said in my mid 20s, single guy Florida is always going to be that destination for all the reasons that I laid out. So with that being said, what does that mean for real estate? What that means for real estate is that there's going to be a constant supply of people coming into Florida, and when there's a constant supply of people coming into Florida, then you can expect real estate prices to at least not decline. We passed, you know, all sorts of bills, including Dodd Frank post 2008 to prevent people from taking out mortgages that they couldn't afford. So now that that's out of the way, when you have a constant supply of people who are able to afford homes, who are able to afford rents, well, that's going to be a constant supply. So that's good for investors, that's good for appreciation. It's good for cash flow. And that's why I'm a huge fan, not just of the state of Florida, but also investing in Florida. And I own real estate in Florida, and you can say that I lucked out, but I bought a property in 2019 and it nearly doubled in value, yeah, when I say doubled in value in a matter of I want to say, like, two years, two and a half years, it nearly doubled in value. So with that being said, Florida, this was a rare cyclical trend when we just saw this huge upswing, rare cyclical trend. But I don't anticipate cycles like this, where you're going to have booms and busts. Moving forward, we haven't seen a bus since 2008 like I said, the the law has been taken care of in that sense, the regulation. I love the state. I've lived in six major cities, but maybe five different states, and Florida is hands down my favorite. That's why I've lived here for what did I say? 11 and a half or 12 and a half years? I don't even remember anymore. It's actually 11 and a half. My roots are here. I now consider myself a Florida person, even more so than the state of Texas, where, which is where I spent 18 years. I have no doubt that I'll surpass 18 or 19 years in Florida, and that this is it, right here. And a major reason is because this is just such a great state. It's free, it's real estate friendly. This is for people who are looking at buying primary residences, not for investment properties. But the governor has put on the ballot this coming election cycle to remove, to abolish the property tax in the state of Florida. So if you own, if you live full time, not a snowbird, not investors, but if you live in Florida permanently, then no more property tax if the vote passes. So that's another huge plus for owning property if you're a permanent resident in Florida,   Keith Weinhold  29:57   yeah, even if the property tax is abolished. Which seems unlikely, you could just tell what the tenor and the temperature of the tax climate and the investing climate is like in Florida, if they're even spearheading such a proposal, and they're a national leader in something like property tax abolition, like they are and Naresh about eight years after you moved there, which would be, what about 2020? 2022, somewhere in there, we had that strong pandemic migration push into Florida. What's happened is that that flow has slowed down. There's still positive net in migration in there in Florida. But the builders, they got ahead of this, and the pandemic migration wave waned, and they had a temporarily overbuilt condition, and they still do now, which is one reason why we've seen prices fall somewhat in most Florida zip codes, and this spells part of the opportunity. So you do have all these new build properties, some of which are vacant, but you have a good chance they're going to get absorbed pretty soon. And there are some obvious advantages to owning new build.   Naresh Vissa  31:11   Well, Keith, there is brand new construction in Florida, like you said. The work started in 2021 and there are homes that have not been sold. I don't want to say, since they were finished building in 2021 they recently finished building in 2025 and these homes could be a variety of reasons. It could be economic related. It could be hurricane related. In Tampa, the Central Florida, we had two horrible hurricanes back to back within a 15 day period, two really bad hurricanes towards the end of 2024 September and October 2024 and people lost their homes. Renters lost their homes. Other people just were freaked out and scared and said, You know what? I don't want to deal with. I've got PTSD from these hurricanes. I'm moving up to Alabama or Georgia or Orlando, you know, somewhere in Central Florida, that's a way. But even that area, you know, the hurricane still made it through to those areas too. People just picked up and said, You know what I'm done with Florida. It's a great state, but I don't want to deal with these hurricanes. And so regardless, whatever the reason, this is a pie, and these are all slices of the pie, I don't know what's been more of a contributing factor than which one has been more than the others. But with that being said, there are tons of properties in Florida, pretty much the entire state of Florida, where, especially new construction properties, are below at the time when they were being built, they're below what they anticipated being listed as. And So Keith, we're having a special webinar this Thursday, talking about these properties because they are discounted properties. They are properties that are selling at tremendous discounts, like I said to when Ground was broken years ago. So join that webinar. Gre, webinars.com gre webinars.com. Again, brand new construction. Many of these properties already have tenants in place. Not all of them, but many of them do already have tenants in place. There are all sorts of incentives that the builder is offering. And there are many builders in that, not just this one that's going to be on the webinar, but in Florida, there are many builders who are offering discounts, rate, buy downs, other incentives, because the home values have fallen somewhat a bit. Why have the home values falling? Because the demand has fallen as well. So again, the next question people might have is, well, if the demand is falling, if home home values are falling, why would I buy the trend is downward. And the answer is, whether it's a stock or any other security, you don't necessarily want to have the FOMO to buy at an all time high, just because everyone else is buying it. And I actually have family members who bought real estate at the peak of 2022 there was FOMO and there was, hey, you know, I need to get a flip, and they're down. They bought peak 2022, and they're down today. Because, look, you can pick any housing market in the country, especially a prime state like Florida. Look at any 30 year period, and you will see that home values are up double digits, even if you look at 2009 when the housing market crashed and we reached something like 10 year bottom in housing, if you look at the 30 year period, well, if someone who bought a house in Florida in, say, 1979 was still way up on their property in 2009 30 years later, we're not buying Bitcoin here where it can go up 30% in one day or go down 30% in one day. We're talking real estate, and real estate has been proven. It's been tested. It's been proven throughout time, not even a 30 year period. I think if you take any 20 year period, you're going to see the same trend of double digit gains, double digit growth. On real estate appreciation. So I'd say, if you're skeptical about Florida, you see these home values, all these discounts, that's the first thing I hear from followers. They say, why are they offering so many discounts? I'm a little concerned about all these discounts and incentives, and I don't know if that's a good thing. Well, I say, Well, I mean, you can buy full price in another state, if you'd like, you know, in California or so you could, you're more than free to buy full price. But we're talking Florida here. We're not talking about West Virginia or Rhode Island, or, you know, Nebraska. We're talking Florida. This is still the land of Mickey Mouse and Minnie Mouse, this is the land of the best beaches in the country. I mean, they there's just no arguing or debating these facts. Florida all the reasons that I stated earlier, is going to continue to be a hot, hot market. So I highly recommend people, if you want to get in on these discounted deals, G R E, webinars.com G R E, webinars.com register for our upcoming online and live special event this Thursday evening at 8pm Eastern Time, 8pm Eastern Time, gre webinars.com you won't want to miss this free, online and live special event.   Keith Weinhold  36:25   When a pound of oranges is on sale or a pound of zucchini is on sale, consumers are often attracted to that sale. Should probably be the same way with you considering adding to your real estate portfolio, and it's funny, when oranges of zucchinis are on sale, no one tries to find fault with it and think that they're rotten inside or something like that. But somehow with real estate or an investment that tends to get scrutiny from people, but these are real discounts that you're getting over buying, say, two years ago, and we're talking about a motivated seller here. And as you know, Naresh, we had the builder on the show last week, the one that's going to be co hosting the webinar with you on Thursday, and he talked to us about buying down mortgage rates to between 3.75% and 4.25% and we're here at a time where the owner occupied rate is six to six and a quarter the investor rate is seven, so you're getting about a three percentage point buy down. That's really the attraction. And Naresh, before I ask you, if you have any last thoughts, yes, again, it is our live event that you can attend from the comfort of your own home, Thursday the 19th, at 8pm eastern in just a few days, here with Naresh and the builder who you heard on last week's show, co hosting a live webinar for Central Florida so inland new build income property. It's free. You're invited, and the benefit of you attending live is that you can have any of your questions answered in real time. You're going to learn more about the Central Florida market and more about the home building process, and you are going to be able to see available new bill property, real addresses, with some of these pretty grand incentives that we've talked about again. GRE webinars.com, any last thoughts? Naresh   Naresh Vissa  38:17   I get a lot of questions about is right now the time to buy? Should I buy later? What's going to happen with real estate? And I know the number one question, or the number one caution our followers are going to have, is, is right now the time is March or April, the time. And I say, look, with real estate, I already gave you the figure that you take any 20 year time period, any 30 year time period, and that's our time horizon here at GRE again, we're not trying to buy bitcoin here and flip it, you know, two days later, we're looking to buy and hold for, I don't want to say forever, but I know my time horizon in general is the full 30 year term, at least for my properties, and some people you know, want 10 or 15 years. That's fine too, but that's the time horizon. It is not one year, two years. We're not flipping new construction properties here in Central Florida. We are looking to buy and hold over the long haul, get some very good, high quality tenants in there, in these new construction properties, so that you, the GRE follower and the investor, can collect your monthly cash flow as well as over that 20 year period, or that 30 year period take part in appreciation as well. We've also talked extensively, Keith in previous episodes about interest rate cuts that the Federal Reserve is going to be doing, and just know this, there's a reason why the builder is offering these incentives where you can get the rates so low, your mortgage rate can be so low, and it's going to take at least a year, even if the Fed goes to zero. I mean, it's going to take mortgage rates a very long time. And to reach that point of getting such low interest rates that you just laid out, so that even makes it more enticing, like, Hey, I basically have a head start on the Federal Reserve because I follow the Fed pretty closely. We don't need to get into those details, but it's looking heavily like they are going to be start cutting again later this year, this summer. So it's looking like they're going to do that, but again, now you can have a head start, because when the Fed starts doing that, and when the mortgage rates fall, then everybody's going to jump in. And what's going to happen to the home values once everybody jumps in, well, they're going to go up. You want to jump in when everybody is not jumping in, and when you can get an amazing deal on these interest rates thanks to the builder buying down your interest rate. So this is a GRE special you can't get these deals. I challenge our followers to go on the internet and try to find better incentives or deals. And what you're going to see on this webinar, on this online, live special event. So gre webinars.com you can join me as well as our special guest. He heads up the builder. His name is Jim. He's going to be on with me. And please join us at grewebinars.com sign up for this free and live online special event.   Keith Weinhold  41:20   These are some great points. There's a lot of anticipation for Thursday, Naresh. We'll see you then.   Naresh Vissa  41:25   Thanks, Keith.   Keith Weinhold  41:32   Oh yeah, a first person account on Florida life and opportunity from our own Naresh nationally, the build to rent model that has been a real success, building single family rentals with the intent that they are rentals. From day one, over 321,000 homes have been built specifically as rentals this way since 2012, and more than three quarters of those in just the last five years. So the build to rent trend is picking up steam. About 1/3 of Americans rent their home, and although the word rental for some people that still conjures up visions of high rises packed with apartments, but a growing number of today's rentals are these freestanding, single family homes and duplexes like we're talking about today, nestled in suburban communities with top notch schools, and that's why a growing number of mom and pop investors have hopped on the build to rent bandwagon. They take less maintenance. It attracts quality tenants who stay longer, and the rentals have changed, but so had the renters. 20 years ago, it felt like tenants had to rent, like they had no choice. Today, you've got more and more tenants that choose to rent. Many of them make 100k to 125k or more. Today, rentals are cheaper than owning for those people, and they're less of a headache. A lot of them don't want to fix things, and you as the owner, don't want to either. That's why new build is attractive. Then, you know, I just sent that great map to our newsletter subscribers about which states saw the most population gain from 2020 to today, the South had more population growth than every other US region combined, which is jaw dropping and within the South, the state with the most population growth since 2020 is Florida, with An 8.9% population gain in that span, narrowly beating out Texas and South Carolina. By the way, even if it weren't for the attractive builder interest rate near 4% these Sunshine State deals could still make sense. New build single family rentals from the 270s new build duplexes, 395 to 420k low insurance rates, positive cash flow, a builder warranty. And it's really even better than that. These properties are centered on Ocala, Florida, which received national recognition as the fastest growing city for this second year in a row. That's according to a U haul report, and Florida is the epitome of investor friendly. Florida is the first state to enact a law allowing law enforcement to immediately remove squatters. It distinguishes them from legal tenants. You might come to the webinar event, perhaps thinking about 80k or 500k that you want to allocate toward property or maybe nothing and you just want to learn at the event you will evaluate realistic opportunities learn how property management is handled, and understand how today's inventory fits into your disciplined, long term strategy that all takes place on. On Thursday the 19th at 8pm Eastern. It's our biggest event of the year, and it is called Why Central Florida is the year's most compelling housing market. One last time for Thursday, it is gre webinars.com, until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Unknown Speaker  45:20   You nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  45:52   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get richeducation.com  

Larry Kudlow and David Malpass discuss the need for a fundamental shift in Federal Reserve policy following the anticipated appointment of Kevin Warsh. They argue that the central bank's current reliance on backward-looking data and outdated economic models stifles national prosperity by failing to account for the power of innovation. Malpass suggests that by moving away from the "natural rate" of interest and embracing supply-side reforms like deregulation and tax cuts, the government can achieve rapid economic growth without triggering inflation.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Veronique de Rugy of the Mercatus Center discusses Kevin Warsh's potential Fed chairmanship, highlighting his focus on price stability and a proposed accord to reduce Treasury pressure on the central bank.1903

In a newsmaking interview, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discusses the government's plan to incentivize whistleblower tips on fraud, money laundering, and sanctions violations following the Trump administration's focus on federally funded social welfare programs in Minnesota. Sec. Bessent also shares his expectation that the Senate confirmation of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh to proceed, despite Sen. Thom Tillis's effort to block it. Plus, at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Joe Kernen sits down with AT&T Chairman & CEO John Stankey to discuss the infrastructure of the future internet, including fiber optics and satellites. Sec. Scott Bessent - 04:33John Stankey - 33:17 In this episode:Scott Bessent, @SecScottBessentJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Last week felt like four different crashes happening at the same time: AI software stocks melting down, crypto capitulating, gold and silver whipping around, and markets suddenly panicking about AI CapEx. Jim Bianco returns to Bankless to explain what actually changed: why AI is collapsing the cost of building software (and threatening SaaS pricing models), how “synthetic Bitcoin” in TradFi can amplify volatility even when nothing breaks onchain, and why the next crypto cycle can't be powered by “permission” narratives, it has to be powered by replacement and building. ---

Guest: Elizabeth Peek. Peek discusses Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair, the market's enthusiasm for AI, Elon Musk's visionary ventures, and economic concerns regarding housing shortages and inflation.1829 FIVE POINTS

Guest: Joseph Sternberg. Sternberg assesses potential Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, highlighting his "realist" approach to monetary policy and desire to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.1880 TREASURY

Guest: Elizabeth Peek. Peek discusses Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair, the market's enthusiasm for AI, Elon Musk's visionary ventures, and economic concerns regarding housing shortages and inflation. Guest: Elizabeth Peek. Peek critiques potential 2028 Democratic candidates, arguing Gavin Newsom's California record and Kamala Harris's past campaign failures make them weak contenders for the presidency. Guests: Judy Dempsey and Thaddius Mart. The guests analyze global economic anxiety, Macron's push for EU strategic autonomy, and rising US-EU tensions regarding digital regulation, hate speech, and technological competition. Guests: Judy Dempsey and Thaddius Mart. They examine German concerns over US political influence, the rise of the AfD party, and the fracturing transatlantic relationship amidst widespread economic uncertainty and unpredictability. Guest: Joseph Sternberg. Sternberg assesses potential Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, highlighting his "realist" approach to monetary policy and desire to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Guest: Joseph Sternberg. Sternberg explains how the Peter Mandelson scandal is fueling internal Labor Party conflict, allowing the left wing to purge Blairites while Starmer remains in power. Guest: Jonathan Schanzer. Schanzer analyzes Iran's stalling tactics in negotiations via Oman, noting the pressure from a US armada while questioning Oman's neutrality as a mediator. Guest: Jonathan Schanzer. Schanzer warns that Turkey is positioned to fill the power vacuum if Iran falls, complicating regional dynamics as Erdogan confronts his own mortality and succession. Guest: Mary Kissel. Kissel condemns the brutal sentencing of Jimmy Lai, illustrating Hong Kong's total loss of freedom and the failure of Western powers to hold Beijing accountable. Guest: Mary Kissel. Kissel attributes Prime Minister Starmer's declining popularity to economic failures and the scandal involving Peter Mandelson, which has boosted the populist Reform party's standing. Guest: Grant Newsham. Newsham analyzes Prime Minister Takichi's landslide victory in Japan, noting her hawkish defense stance and economic plans significantly strengthen the US-Japan security alliance. Guest: Conrad Black. Black criticizes Mark Carney's anti-American rhetoric, arguing that Canada's economy relies on the US, while domestic issues like housing shortages remain unaddressed. Guest: Gregory Copley. Copley highlights Australia's booming AI and space sectors under AUKUS, contrasting this success with the political instability and bureaucratic malaise of the Albanese government. Guest: Gregory Copley. Copley evaluates the "forever fleets" pressuring Iran and Venezuela, questioning if current pressure tactics will yield long-term resolutions or merely prolong regional instability. Guest: Gregory Copley. Copley discusses the Nile dam dispute, criticizing Egypt's historical entitlement to water and suggesting US cooperation with Ethiopia could better stabilize the Red Sea region. Guest: Gregory Copley. Copley details the scandal linking Prince Andrew and Peter Mandelson to Epstein, arguing the monarchy remains a crucial stabilizing force during Britain's political turmoil.

Jerome Powell's tenure at the Federal Reserve “has been an unmitigated disaster” as his Fed “created a novel monetary framework in 2020 that is proving very difficult to manage and maintain.” The good news, however, is that Powell's time at the Fed will be up in May, and his replacement, “inflation hawk Kevin Warsh,” looks much more promising, says E.J. Antoni, Ph.D, The Heritage Foundation's chief economist. "If Warsh is confirmed and can clean up the Fed, it will reassure financial markets and help deliver a Main Street boom without inflation or another financial crisis."  Follow us on Instagram for EXCLUSIVE bonus content and the chance to be featured in our episodes: https://www.instagram.com/problematicwomen/   Connect with our hosts on socials!   Elise McCue X: https://x.com/intent/user?screen_name=EliseMcCue Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/elisemccueofficial/   Virginia Allen: X: https://x.com/intent/user?screen_name=Virginia_Allen5 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/virginiaallenofficial/   Check out Top News in 10, hosted by The Daily Signal's Tony Kinnett: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjMHBev3NsoUpc2Pzfk0n89cXWBqQltHY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jerome Powell's tenure at the Federal Reserve “has been an unmitigated disaster” as his Fed “created a novel monetary framework in 2020 that is proving very difficult to manage and maintain.” The good news, however, is that Powell's time at the Fed will be up in May, and his replacement, “inflation hawk Kevin Warsh,” looks much more promising, says E.J. Antoni, Ph.D, The Heritage Foundation's chief economist. "If Warsh is confirmed and can clean up the Fed, it will reassure financial markets and help deliver a Main Street boom without inflation or another financial crisis."  Follow us on Instagram for EXCLUSIVE bonus content and the chance to be featured in our episodes: https://www.instagram.com/problematicwomen/   Connect with our hosts on socials!   Elise McCue X: https://x.com/intent/user?screen_name=EliseMcCue Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/elisemccueofficial/   Virginia Allen: X: https://x.com/intent/user?screen_name=Virginia_Allen5 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/virginiaallenofficial/   Check out Top News in 10, hosted by The Daily Signal's Tony Kinnett: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjMHBev3NsoUpc2Pzfk0n89cXWBqQltHY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John welcomes Bulwark economics editor and MS Now host Catherine Rampell to discuss the fragile state of the Trump 2.0 economy and how the president's policies — on China, tariffs, tech, manufacturing, and more — are undermining it in both the short and long term. Catherine also explains why Wall Street's collective view that Trump's pick to be the next Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is an inflation hawk and fierce defender of the Fed's independence may prove to be wishful thinking ... or downright delusional. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

(0:00) Besties intros: Brad Gerstner joins the show (3:16) Epstein Files (15:45) SaaS stocks crash out (35:11) Moltbook panic (47:37) Trump selects Kevin Warsh as new Fed Chair, replacing Jerome Powell (1:00:50) SpaceX and xAI merge (1:10:45) Brad's major win with Trump Accounts Follow Brad: https://x.com/altcap Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/business/epstein-investments-palantir-coinbase-thiel.html https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article214210674.html https://nypost.com/2026/01/31/us-news/linkedin-founder-reid-hoffmans-emails-with-jeffrey-epstein-revealed-in-doj-docs https://freebeacon.com/democrats/skype-sushi-and-a-phone-date-democratic-megadonor-reid-hoffman-maintained-jeffrey-epstein-relationship-years-after-he-said-it-ended https://nypost.com/2026/02/02/business/jeffrey-epstein-boasted-about-wild-dinner-with-mark-zuckerberg-reid-hoffman-in-unsealed-2015-email https://x.com/stockpickerspb/status/2009363916573290715 https://www.moltbook.com https://x.com/galnagli/status/2017573842051334286 https://x.com/balajis/status/1937517664907460980 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-over-1-geopolitical-economic-tensions-lift-precious-metals-2026-02-05 https://x.com/truflation/status/2019409671212396815 https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/ups-amazon-boost-us-planned-layoffs-january-challenger-survey-shows-2026-02-05 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/musk-xai-spacex-biggest-merger-ever.html https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above

#687: Your tax refund might be $300 to $1,000 bigger this year, and that's just the beginning of what's changing with your money. The Tax Foundation estimates most Americans will see significantly larger refunds thanks to seven major tax cuts. The child tax credit increased by $200. The standard deduction jumped by $750 for individuals or $1,500 for couples. The state and local tax deduction cap now sits at $40,000. Seniors get an extra $6,000 deduction, and deductions for auto loan interest, tips, and overtime work all increased. Retirement accounts saw major changes too. Catch-up contributions for high earners now must go into Roth accounts, which pushed thousands of employers to add Roth options to their 401k plans between 2024 and 2026. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair nominee, thinks the Federal Reserve has been doing it all wrong. The former Fed governor and Wall Street banker believes the Fed focuses too much on backward-looking data and reacts too slowly. He wants strategic, forward-thinking policy instead of chasing lagging indicators. President Trump clarified he never asked Warsh to lower interest rates and wanted to "keep it pure." The labor market shows serious cracks. Job openings dropped by nearly one million year over year to 6.5 million. Unemployment claims jumped to 231,000 last week. January layoffs hit 108,435 people — up 118 percent from last year and the worst January since 2009 during the Great Recession. Big Tech continues its massive AI spending spree. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle will collectively spend over $500 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Google's spending alone doubled from 2025, reaching up to $185 billion focused on data centers and Gemini development. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Newt talks with Thomas Hoenig, a former Federal Reserve official and Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center, about the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. President Trump’s decision has sparked discussion on Warsh's economic policies. Warsh, known for his hawkish views, is concerned about national debt and quantitative easing, which may lead to tighter policies than President Trump desires. Hoenig believes Warsh is a good choice due to his understanding of markets and fiscal policies, although he will face pressure to implement rate cuts. The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized, with Warsh expected to maintain a balance between being friendly to the President and upholding the Fed's independence. His nomination has influenced market behavior, with significant drops in gold and silver prices, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy under Warsh. The political landscape is also affected, with discussions on the potential challenges Warsh might face in the Senate confirmation process and the implications of ongoing legal cases involving Federal Reserve officials. The role of the Federal Reserve in the economy is highlighted, with its policies significantly impacting inflation, interest rates, and overall economic stability.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when Powell's term ends in May. We discuss Trump's efforts to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve and how that may impede Warsh's confirmation vote. This episode: senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith, White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, and chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley.This podcast was produced by Casey Morell and Bria Suggs, and edited by Rachel Baye.Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi.Listen to every episode of the NPR Politics Podcast sponsor-free, unlock access to bonus episodes with more from the NPR Politics team, and support public media when you sign up for The NPR Politics Podcast+ at plus.npr.org/politics.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy