Podcast appearances and mentions of Kevin Warsh

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami is joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO of OnePoint BFG Financial, to break down the growing cracks in the Bank of Japan's decades-long rate repression experiment and what a yen reversal could mean for global bond markets. They dig into the historic move in Treasury yields following Kevin Warsh's press conference, rising credit stress in the AI trade (including Meta's off-balance-sheet financing and CoreWeave's blown-out credit default swaps), and why single-stock volatility may be signaling something bigger. They close out with a deep dive on gold — why central banks keep buying even as the metal cools off. Then, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami sit down with Jin Hennig, Managing Director and Global Head of Metals at CME Group, live from CME's New York office. They cover gold's pullback from its 2026 highs, the case for why central bank demand isn't going anywhere, the launch of CME's new 24/7 gold futures product, and what the September Fed meeting could mean for prices. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal MediaThe financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

In this week's stock market outlook, Matt breaks down the technical battle facing the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, reviews the biggest winners and losers of earnings season, and grades Kevin Warsh's performance as Federal Reserve Chair following the latest Fed meeting. The bulls reclaimed an important trend line, but the broader trend still needs confirmation. Matt identifies the resistance levels required for a legitimate breakout, the support zones traders must defend, and the signals coming from RSI and MACD heading into the new trading week. Earnings growth has been exceptional, but the market has not rewarded every company that beat expectations. Matt reviews the best and worst reports of the season, separates true operating strength from headline distortions, and explains what the results mean for technology and the broader market. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady following a contentious meeting. Matt breaks down the decision, the dissents, Kevin Warsh's communication strategy, and whether the new Fed Chair has earned a passing grade so far. • The S&P 500 breakout test and key market levels • Earnings season growth, market reactions, and major surprises • The strongest and weakest earnings reports • The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision • Kevin Warsh's first report card as Fed Chair • Precision Trader and the upcoming Master Trader series

From a massive balance sheet to the way the Fed communicates, Fed Chair's Kevin Warsh's new task forces will take a comprehensive look at U.S. monetary policy. Macroeconomist Joe Santos weighs in on the complicated work of reform now before the Fed.

En Capital Intereconomía repasamos las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados internacionales en una sesión marcada por la política monetaria, la temporada de resultados empresariales y el comportamiento de la renta fija. En el primer análisis de la mañana conversamos con Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia, para analizar la intervención del Banco de Japón en defensa del yen y sus posibles implicaciones para los mercados de divisas. También valoramos el sólido avance de la temporada de resultados empresariales, que continúa respaldando las subidas bursátiles, y el balance de la gran banca española, que alcanza un beneficio conjunto récord de 20.194 millones de euros. Además, analizamos cómo las declaraciones de Kevin Warsh siguen presionando al mercado de deuda y elevando la rentabilidad de los bonos, el comportamiento del Ibex 35, que cierra julio con una revalorización del 1,6% pese a las tensiones en el petróleo y la deuda, y la confianza de los inversores en las grandes tecnológicas tras la publicación de sus resultados. Terminamos la hora con el repaso a las principales portadas de la prensa económica nacional e internacional para conocer las noticias que marcarán la actualidad financiera, empresarial y macroeconómica de la jornada.

Si te gusta cómo hilo temas en el podcast puedes suscribirte a la newsletter y recibir un artículo cada sábado donde trato la confluencia de Bitcoin con temas más complejos: https://albertomeraupsb.substack.com/ Prueba Proton VPN 30 días sin compromiso para poder navegar protegido desde cualquier lugar y acceder a nuevos contenidos del mundo entero. Usa este enlace para 70% de descuento: http://protonvpn.com/upsb El monedero que te recomiendo si quieres autocustodiar tu bitcoin: Bitbox Usa este enlace para comprar: https://bit.ly/bitbox-upsb (5% de descuento usando código UPSB al final del carrito) Para cualquier duda sobre todo lo anterior, para comprar guardar o preguntas sobre los sponsors, puedes escribirme a hola@unpodcastsobrebitcoin.com Descargo de responsabilidad: Todo lo discutido en este episodio debe ser considerado como entretenimiento solamente y jamás como consejo de inversión. Nada de lo dicho aquí tiene un propósito de asesoramiento financiero o recomendación.

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the Leopold Aschenbrenner hedge fund unwind, the market crashes in South Korea and Japan, Kevin Warsh and the Fed's next move, and the case for compute scarcity as AI demand outpaces supply. We also discuss tokenization and why bitcoin remains the ultimate hedge and store of value in a world being reshaped by AI.======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ======================Figure's $160k Community Appreciation (https://www.figure.com/crypto-community-appreciation/T&Cs (https://www.figure.com/crypto-community-appreciation/disclosures/) Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~8.5% APY on real world assets.Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824). Loans subject to approval. Crypto collateral may be liquidated. Terms apply - see full disclosures at http://figure.com/disclosures/======================0:00 - Intro0:48 - Leopold's fund unwind & lessons from past blowups 9:21 - Hedge fund leverage & how AI is reshaping market structure11:45 - Korea & Japan's market collapse13:56 - AI will destroy all public companies?15:20 - The bull case for hyperscalers & compute scarcity27:44 - Why bitcoin is the best hedge fund ever29:12 - Kevin Warsh & the Fed33:48 - Does this help Wall Street or Main Street?36:47- Advice for a 25-year-old starting their career today41:18 - Bitcoin & the rest of crypto industry48:52 - Migration, digital money & the breakdown of borders57:56 - What Jordi is covering in his next video

In this episode of The Canadian Macro Investor Podcast, Simon and Dan break down the latest Fed decision and why the bond market may be starting to challenge Kevin Warsh’s inflation message. They discuss the split reaction across the yield curve, with short-term yields moving differently than longer-term yields, and what that could mean for inflation, recession risk and future rate hikes. They also look at Canada’s population data problem and why undercounting temporary residents could distort unemployment, mortgage delinquency trends and the broader read on the Canadian economy. From there, they dig into big tech earnings, including Microsoft and Meta, and why investors are paying closer attention to AI capex, free cash flow, depreciation, and credit default swaps across the hyperscalers. They also discuss Anthropic, open-weight AI models, data privacy concerns, tariffs, copper demand, and what the AI infrastructure build-out could mean for energy and markets. Tickers discussed: MSFT, META, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, ORCL, AAPL, SKM Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Breaking Battlegrounds, Sam Stone is joined by B from B's Crime Corner to revisit the COVID-19 restrictions of 2020, Anthony Fauci's influence, vaccine requirements, and the conflicting information Americans were given about who was truly at risk. Then, B's Crime Corner examines the disturbing "Ohio House of Horrors" case, where 16 children were allegedly found living in deplorable conditions. Authorities said some may not have survived another 24 hours. Gary Siders Jr., Gary Siders Sr., Christina Siders, and Elizabeth Siders are accused in connection with the case. Sam Lyman, Head of Research at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, explains why America's Bitcoin, AI, and data-center infrastructure has become a national-security issue. He discusses Chinese influence campaigns targeting U.S. development, misinformation about data-center water use, and the choice between American AI and Chinese AI shaped by censorship. Follow Sam Lyman on X: @SamLyman33 Follow the Bitcoin Policy Institute on X: @bitcoinpolicy Shandi Hudson of Elite Senior Services explains why families should begin planning for senior care before a crisis. She breaks down placement options and how professional guidance can help families find the right care for their loved ones. Follow Shandi Hudson on Instagram: @shandinhudson Learn more: EliteSeniorAZ.com Gary Gygi, President and CEO of Gygi Capital Management, closes the show with his take on the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady, Kevin Warsh's market-focused approach, and President Trump's use of tariffs as a negotiating tool. Follow Gary Gygi on X: @GaryGygi Learn more: GygiCapital.com Listen now to Breaking Battlegrounds, the radio show covering Arizona politics, campus unrest, election integrity, national campaigns, and the true crime cases everyone is talking about. Catch Breaking Battlegrounds live on 960 AM in Phoenix every Saturday at 9:00 AM, with full episodes and exclusive podcast-only segments dropping every Friday wherever you get your podcasts or watch on Youtube. Stay connected with Breaking Battlegrounds: • Substack: https://substack.com/@breakingbattlegrounds • Website: https://breakingbattlegrounds.vote • News: https://breakingbattlegrounds.news • X: https://x.com/breaking_battle • Instagram: @breakingbattlegrounds • Facebook: Breaking Battlegrounds If you enjoy the show, please leave us a 5-star review and share it with a friend. Your support helps keep the podcast growing. Breaking Battlegrounds is one of the top 2.5% most popular shows out of 3,779,399 podcasts globally. We interview policymakers, elected officials, and nationally and world-recognized reporters about the opportunities and hurdles the United States faces.

Boucher fills in for Dutt, hosting an especially off-script edition of RenMac Off-Script, covering the biggest earnings and macro week of the summer, headlined by Kevin Warsh's dovish Fed hold. Neil Dutta argues the move reeks of a credibility problem that leaves the chair looking weak, with the long end selling off and a September hike increasingly likely as inflation—not growth—owns the Fed's reaction function. Jeff deGraaf puts a face on the momentum crash through the blow-up and rescue of Leopold's levered semis-versus-software trade, calling it a clearing event rather than the all-clear. The team also digs into rising global yields, energy's quiet leadership, tightening credit conditions, and Steve Pavlick's read on reconciliation, the debt limit, and the odds on the Clarity Act.

Those Long-Term Chip Deals May Not Be as Secure as Investors Are Led to Believe When you listen to memory chip companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology discuss their businesses, they often make it sound like customer contracts—some extending as long as five years—are essentially set in stone. Unfortunately, that's not entirely true. Yes, these companies have long-term agreements in place, but contracts in this industry are often renegotiated when market conditions change. If demand for memory chips weakens significantly, chip manufacturers have a strong incentive to work with their customers rather than strictly enforce every contractual commitment. The reason is simple: preserving long-term customer relationships is often far more valuable than maximizing short-term revenue. Imagine a customer that suddenly doesn't need as many chips because its own sales have slowed. If a supplier forces that customer to accept unwanted inventory, those chips may simply sit in a warehouse until demand recovers. By the time the customer needs additional chips, it may choose to reduce future orders or move business to a competitor that proved to be more flexible during difficult times. Competitors are always looking for opportunities to gain market share. If one supplier refuses to work with its customers, another is usually willing to offer better pricing or more favorable terms. Losing a major customer over a rigid interpretation of a contract can cost far more in future profits than making temporary concessions during a downturn. This isn't just theory and it has happened before. During the COVID-era, many long-term agreements were adjusted as demand shifted. Rather than forcing customers to take products they no longer needed, suppliers often renegotiated delivery schedules and purchasing commitments to preserve long-term partnerships. The same principle applies across many industries. Companies frequently modify or delay large commercial agreements when business conditions change. While contracts provide a framework, successful businesses understand that maintaining trust with key customers is often more important than enforcing every clause to the letter. Investors should remember that a signed contract does not necessarily guarantee future revenue will be recognized exactly as originally planned. Management teams often emphasize the value of their long-term agreements during earnings calls, but those agreements can evolve if market conditions deteriorate. At the end of the day, great businesses understand that customer relationships are built over years but can be damaged in a matter of weeks. In many cases, giving a customer flexibility during a downturn is a much better investment than insisting on strict contract enforcement. That's why investors should view long-term chip contracts as valuable, but not invincible.   Why Index Investing Could Leave You Disappointed Long Term I often hear people say, "Just buy the S&P 500 and forget about it. You'll be fine." While that sounds simple, investing is rarely that easy. Many investors don't fully understand how an index works or why it has performed so well in recent years. The S&P 500 has been driven largely by a handful of technology and AI companies. By blindly investing in the index, many people are simply participating in a momentum strategy without realizing it. Very little thought is given to what those 500 companies are actually worth. There is no effort to trim positions that have become extremely expensive or overly concentrated. As valuations climb, the index simply gives those companies an even larger weighting, leaving investors with greater exposure to the stocks that have already gone up the most. Some people respond by saying, "I won't put everything in the S&P 500. I'll diversify into other index funds." But once you go down that road, investing becomes much more complicated and you'll likely underperform the S&P 500. Should you own an international index? A European index? A bond index? A growth index? A value index? Small-cap funds? REITs? There are hundreds of ETFs and mutual funds to choose from. Now you have another challenge: deciding how much to allocate to each one. When your portfolio declines will you understand why? More importantly, will you know what to do next? Many investors don't, and that uncertainty often leads to emotional decisions at exactly the wrong time. This is why I prefer managing a portfolio of individual value-oriented stocks, combined with money market funds and selected real estate investment trusts (REITs). That approach still provides diversification, but I understand what each investment is worth and why I own it. In my view, that's a much better foundation than owning five or ten different index funds without truly understanding what's inside them or how they're valued. Another common argument for index investing is lower fees. While fees certainly matter, they shouldn't be the only factor. The number that ultimately matters is your total return after all fees and expenses. A lower fee doesn't automatically translate into better long-term performance. If you own index funds, take some time to look under the hood. Do you really understand what you own? Do you know which sectors dominate your portfolio, which companies make up the largest holdings, and how expensive those businesses are today? If the answer is no, don't assume you'll be comfortable when the market experiences its next major decline. Investors who don't understand what they own are often the first to panic, and that confusion can lead to costly investment mistakes.   The U.S. economy is still in much better shape than many people think. This week brought three major events for investors: GDP, PCE inflation, and the Federal Reserve meeting. While the headlines may have sounded mixed, the underlying data still paints a healthy consumer. Second-quarter GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, below economists' expectations. At first glance, that may seem disappointing. But when you look under the hood, the economy continues to show resilience. Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, increased 3.2% after a weak first quarter where it only climbed 0.5%. That tells me the American consumer is still in good shape, and that's one of the biggest reasons the economy continues to avoid the recession that so many have been predicting. Major drags on the headline GDP figure included government spending, which reduced growth by 0.14 percentage points, as well as the more volatile components of trade and the change in private inventories, which subtracted 1.01 and 0.67 percentage points, respectively. Inflation remains the biggest challenge. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, increased 3.3% over the past year. While that's an improvement from where we've been, it's still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. I continue to believe inflation will remain sticky until energy prices become more stable. Energy impacts transportation, manufacturing, and virtually every supply chain, so it's difficult to see inflation falling sustainably while energy costs remain volatile. The Fed, as expected, left interest rates unchanged. What stood out wasn't the decision, it was the growing disagreement among policymakers. The 3 dissents that voted for a 25-basis point increase highlight just how uncertain the economic outlook remains. When inflation is still elevated but the economy continues to grow, there isn't an easy policy answer. One thing I do like so far is Kevin Warsh's changes at the Fed. I like the simplified statement, the encouragement of differing viewpoints, and rather than projecting absolute confidence in economic forecasts, he has acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding them. That's a refreshing change. Economic forecasting has never been an exact science, and I would rather have a Fed Chair who recognizes the limitations of those projections than one who pretends they are precise. What's surprising is how quickly some of the talking heads have claimed Warsh already has a credibility problem. I don't see it that way. Credibility isn't about making bold predictions that later need to be revised. It's about being honest about what we know, what we don't know, and allowing incoming data to guide policy. The takeaway for investors is simple: don't let one headline drive your investment decisions. The economy continues to expand, consumers are still spending, inflation remains stubborn, and the Fed is navigating a difficult policy environment. Looking beneath the surface is often where you'll find the real story.   Leverage Is Fuel... Until It Becomes the Fire The last few weeks have been a reminder that leverage looks like a wonderful tool on the way up... but it's a devastating one on the way down. FINRA's new margin rules have effectively replaced the 25-year-old Pattern Day Trader rule, allowing traders with as little as $2,000 to make unlimited day trades using intraday margin. While this opens the door for more retail participation, it also means more investors have access to leverage, something that has historically magnified both gains and losses. This is a big problem considering FINRA margin debt climbed 49% year over year to another record in June of roughly $1.5 trillion. This comes as investor net credit balances have fallen to a record negative $1.06 trillion. In other words, investors collectively owe more on margin than they have sitting in cash accounts. For comparison's sake, in March 2000 this measure stood at a negative $0.13 trillion. That's an aggressive setup if volatility returns. We also saw this past week the spectacular collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused hedge fund, Situational Awareness, which shows what can happen when conviction is paired with excessive leverage. The near 25-year-old Aschenbrenner was painted as a genius with strong credentials like being Columbia University's valedictorian at age 19. His fund was launched in July 2024 and he had no experience managing money before that. Before this month's decline the fund had gains of more than 1,000% since inception. The fund used tons of leverage with some saying as much as 400% to build massive positions in AI and semiconductor stocks while shorting stocks in the software space like Adobe. The problem is when names like Coreweave, Nebius, and Sandisk fell more than 50% from their highs and the software stocks rallied, margin calls forced the liquidation of most of its public equity portfolio. The result was staggering considering the fund peaked at above $45 billion in assets and with the selloff they plunged to around $10 billion. This forced a fire sale of assets at a discount to Ken Griffin's Citadel. Some speculate that the forced selling may have helped create the bottom. Once one of the market's largest leveraged sellers had finished liquidating, the selling pressure eased and many AI stocks staged a sharp rebound. Others believe the selling is not over as Michael Burry reportedly used Thursday's powerful rally as an opportunity to increase several of his bearish positions in Micron, Nvidia and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Whether he's ultimately right or wrong remains to be seen, but it's a reminder that some experienced investors still believe AI-related valuations and leverage remain stretched.   Here Come the Robots! Robots have been making their way into manufacturing for decades. The first industrial robotic arm, called Unimate, was installed in 1961 on the assembly line at a General Motors plant in Trenton, New Jersey. But today's robots are very different. They're no longer just stationary robotic arms bolted to the factory floor, they're starting to look and move like humans. That reality is beginning to make workers uneasy. At a Hyundai Motor plant in South Korea, employees have gone on a partial strike, with concerns over automation playing a role. Hyundai recently unveiled its humanoid robot, Atlas, which stands 6'2", weighs about 200 pounds, can lift up to 110 pounds, and can continuously carry nearly 70 pounds. It's easy to understand why workers are wondering what these machines could mean for their jobs. South Korea is already the world leader in industrial robot adoption, with approximately 1,220 industrial robots for every 10,000 manufacturing employees. By comparison, the United States has around 307 robots per 10,000 workers. One statistic that surprised me was China, which currently has only about 166 industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. If Elon Musk has anything to say about it, those numbers could change dramatically over the next several years. Tesla is aggressively developing its humanoid robot, Optimus, with the goal of having it help build vehicles in its factories before long. If that vision becomes reality, other manufacturers will almost certainly follow. The idea of humanoid robots can be unsettling, but the transition is likely to be slower than many people expect. Industry forecasts suggest that global annual production of humanoid robots could reach roughly 1.2 million units by 2030. While that sounds like a large number, it's still a tiny fraction of the global workforce. So, we're probably still a few years away from living like The Jetsons. If you're not familiar with the cartoon, it debuted in September 1962 and imagined a future filled with flying cars and household robots. I guess I will have to wait a few more years to get a maid like the Jetsons had named Rosie the robot.   Financial Planning: Tax Relief Coming for Older Home Sellers? The federal home sale capital gain exclusion has remained unchanged since 1997, allowing homeowners to exclude up to $250,000 of gain if single or $500,000 if married filing jointly when selling a primary residence. With home values rising significantly over the past three decades, particularly in high-cost areas like California, many long-time homeowners now face substantial capital gains taxes when downsizing. A new proposal, the Nest Egg Protection Act, would increase the exclusion to $1 million for homeowners age 65 and older who have owned and lived in their home for at least 25 years. This would allow more seniors to keep the equity they've built over a lifetime. In addition to providing tax relief, the proposal could encourage more older homeowners to sell, increasing housing inventory and making homeownership more attainable for first-time buyers. While the legislation has not yet been enacted and homeowners should continue planning under current law, the proposal reflects a growing recognition that the existing exclusion no longer aligns with today's housing market.   Companies Discussed: International Business Machines Corporation (Ticker: IBM)

Afgelopen woensdag veroorzaakte de president van de Amerikaanse centrale bank (Fed), Kevin Warsh, de nodige verwarring bij analisten na zijn optreden op de persconferentie rondom het rentebesluit. Zijn houding zorgde opnieuw voor een vergrootglas op het handelen van de centrale bank, iets waar Warsh juist graag vanaf wil. Volgens econoom Arnoud Boot is er sprake van een 'Fed-verslaving' onder analisten.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve is changing how it communicates with markets, and the ripple effects are being felt across bonds, currencies, housing, and equities. We break down Kevin Warsh's shift away from forward guidance, why long-term Treasury yields continue to climb, and what it could mean for interest rates going forward. We also discuss New York's proposed second-home tax and government-backed grocery stores, the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, Korea's margin-call meltdown, growing weakness in the bond market, pressure on the Canadian dollar, and why the energy sector may present one of today's most compelling investment opportunities.Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings! For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokersFor Investors and Advisors: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehourSchedule a call with IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/✉️ Media & Real Estate Inquiries: steve@stevesaretsky.comStay up to date with our information -

Hysterische taferelen in chipaandelen, een matig optreden van de pas aangetreden Fed-voorzitter Kevin Warsh en een tsunami aan - opvallend sterke - bedrijfscijfers. Er was veel, heel veel, te bespreken in deze aflevering van de IEX Beleggerspodcast.Met huisanalist Hildo Laman en financiëlemarkten-watcher Arne Petimezas van AFS Capital bespreekt Pieter Kort de immense stroom aan beurs- en wereldnieuws die deze week voor koersspektakel zorgde.De onderwerpen van deze week:Nieuws van de week: obligaties van golfstaten en een opvallende tweedeling in de S&P 500Waarom Kevin Warsh nog niet overtuigt als Fed-voorzitterDe renteverwachtingen van Arne PetimezasGrof koersgeweld in chipaandelen, en niet alleen in Zuid-KoreaWaarom Microsoft wel en Meta niet wordt geloofd door beleggersWaarom OpenAI en Anthropic het wel eens lastig kunnen krijgen op de beursDilemma van de week: alles in cash, of vol in Koreaanse chipmakers?Oh-oh ASML: China maakt nu echt zelf DUV-machinesKwartaalcijfers van: Arcadis, DSM-Firmenich, IMCD, Philips, ING, Unilever, Pharming, Fugro Links uit deze podcast:Moet ASML vrezen voor Chinese DUV-machines? Fed handhaaft rente, maar het bestuur is verdeeldMicrosoft neemt een populaire beslissingDit bod op Arcadis is te magerEr ontbreekt iets in de jaarcijfers van ING GroepDSM-Firmenich: koersdoelverhogingSpectaculaire groei IMCDOnbegrijpelijke handelswijze Philips overschaduwt prima cijfersUnilever is priced for perfection

The Fed talked tough and did nothing. The 30-year hit a 20-year high. The Dow fell 1,100 points. Gold was the only thing left standing.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmTonight's episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly where they were before Kevin Warsh took over, despite a 30% market-priced chance of a hike and three FOMC members dissenting in favor of one. Peter Schiff breaks down a press conference where Warsh declared "no tolerance" for inflation above 2% while doing nothing about it, hiding behind the excuse that the Fed "doesn't have a magic wand." Nobody asked for magic, just for the Fed to use the tools it actually has: higher rates, a smaller balance sheet, slower money supply growth. Warsh delivered none of them, and Schiff argues he made the same choice as his predecessors. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed chose it again.The markets rendered their verdict immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.22%, its highest in roughly 20 years, the Dow fell 2.2% or about 1,100 points to close on the lows, and the Nasdaq 100 is now down over 3% on the week as the air keeps coming out of the AI bubble, with Meta down 10% after missing earnings and SanDisk off 30% in three days. Gold told the real story: it closed up $40 at 4,070 and never broke 4,000, because rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are bullish for gold, not bearish. Schiff calls gold the last safe haven standing. He also covers consumer confidence at a five-year low, a $101.5 billion June trade deficit proving the tariffs accomplished nothing, and why Mamdani's government-run grocery stores will empty shelves, bankrupt private grocers in the poorest neighborhoods, and recreate Soviet bread lines in New York City.Chapters:00:00 Debt Bubble Reality00:37 Fed Holds Rates Steady03:34 Two Percent Target Doubts16:05 Q&A Exposes Inaction27:38 Markets React Bonds Stocks Gold31:45 Yields and Gold Misread35:02 Gold Safe Haven Case37:40 Fed Fallout and Data43:12 NYC Government Grocers55:42 Capitalism and Wrap UpFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

P.M. Edition for July 30. The U.S. economy grew just 1.5% last quarter, lower than the previous quarter and falling short of economists' expectations. WSJ economics reporter Harriet Torry explains why the details in the report, particularly around consumer spending, suggest things aren't as bad as the headline number makes it seem. Plus, the buzzy AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, founded by AI whiz kid Leopold Aschenbrenner, sold most of its stock portfolio to investment firm Citadel. We hear from WSJ special writer Greg Zuckerman about why this happened and where the company goes from here. And a big rally in tech companies sent U.S. stocks soaring today. Alex Ossola hosts. See the new fronts in the Iran war.  Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

#900: A divided Fed holds interest rates but three members wanted to hike it up. Meta shares dip after reporting an earnings miss as it keeps spending money on data centers. Microsoft beat expectations thanks to its partnership with Anthropic. Then, Neal shares numbers on the busiest commercial flight day on record, weed being more common than cigarettes, and why nobody is talking to each other anymore. Finally, NYC just released a short list of property owners subject to Mamdani's luxury tax on second homes. Got difficult questions? Head to https://www.claude.ai/mbd to answer them.  Get tickets for our trivia tournament! https://caveat.nyc/events/the-morning-brew-trivia-tournament-2026-07-30  Grab tickets to our Performance Revue show! https://www.morningbrew.com/events/brew-performance-revue-2026?utm_campaign=performance_revue_2026&utm_source=mbd Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro. In this conversation, we break down what the Fed should do next, how money printing quietly erodes your purchasing power, Kevin Warsh's plan to reshape the Fed, what history says happens to economies as K-shaped as ours, and what gives Darius hope for the future. ====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ====================Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto unlike any other platform allowing you to trade in just one step between any supported asset. Check them out at https://www.uphold.com/pomp/ This video includes a paid sponsorship with Uphold. I'm compensated by Uphold for promoting its products and services and may receive commissions from referrals. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Digital assets are risky and may result in the total loss of your capital.====================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp====================0:00 - Intro0:56 - What the Fed should do vs. what they will do7:19 - Dollar debasement: pricing assets in "units of dollars"11:29 - Kevin Warsh, ending forward guidance, & AI-driven disinflation18:29 - Red states vs. blue states: fixing the K-shaped economy26:53 - Explicit vs. implicit socialism & the Wealth Pump theory32:01 - What gives Darius hope for the future

The Federal Reserve, under Kevin Warsh, has decided to keep interest rates steady. Former Fed vice chairman Roger Ferguson discusses the decision and the FOMC member dissents. After Dr. Anthony Fauci's testimony before the Senate Homeland Security Committee, Committee Chair Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) discusses his plan to consider holding Dr. Fauci in contempt for exercising his Fifth Amendment rights 111 times throughout the hearing. CNBC's Dan Murphy reports on the latest strikes between the U.S. and Iran, and Amos Hochstein, former White House Senior Advisor for President Biden, discusses strategies in regional conflict and its impact on global energy.     Roger Ferguson - 5:05 Sen. Rand Paul - 21:11 Dan Murphy - 37:03 Amos Hochstein - 42:50   In this episode: Rand Paul, @SenRandPaul Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The progression from Alan Greenspan to Kevin Warsh is not simply a change in personality. It reflects four different views of how much the Federal Reserve should shape market expectations.At one end is the belief that ambiguity preserves flexibility. At the other is the belief that communication itself is a monetary-policy instrument. Warsh appears to be pulling the institution back toward flexibility, but in a market that has become accustomed to continuous guidance.Warsh seems to be drawing a distinction between transparency and prediction.The Fed should explain why it made today's decision. But that does not mean it should promise what it will do three or six months from now.There is also a concern that excessive guidance encourages too much risk taking.When investors believe the Fed has clearly mapped out the future, they may borrow short, lend long, buy duration, or sell volatility with too much confidence.A less predictable Fed may force investors to price risk more carefully.That may be healthier over the long term.-------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Semis on the upswing after a rough couple of sessions, but should investors trust the bounce in the momentum trade after what BTIG calls the largest/fastest crash in modern history? JPMorgan's Michael Feroli slides his rate hike timeline from the second half of 2027 to December after Kevin Warsh evades some reporter questions in his second news conference as Fed Chair.  Plus, why the war in Iran could last through the midterms.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Amazon and Apple are take center stage as the latest megacaps to report earnings. Mark Mahaney of Evercore analyzes the results and explains what Amazon's numbers mean for AI spending, cloud growth, advertising and the broader tech landscape. Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab steps back to assess the market's reaction and where investors should position next. Guy LeBas of Janney Montgomery Scott grades Kevin Warsh's performance during his second press conference and what it means for rates, the economy and monetary policy. Amit Daryanani of Evercore reacts to Apple's quarter and discusses what it signals for iPhone demand, AI strategy and the company's outlook. John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors breaks down the market's technical picture and identifies the key levels investors should watch after a pivotal week of earnings. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Links & ResourcesFollow us on social media for updates: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our recommended tool: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Prop Stream⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Thank you for listening!

Kevin Warsh's second Fed meeting left investors questioning whether the new Fed chair is willing to back up his inflation talk with action.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why markets initially held up after the Fed left rates unchanged, how Warsh's press conference lost credibility with investors, and why the bond market reaction matters for mortgage rates, inflation expectations, and the broader financial system. They also discuss the weaker-than-expected GDP headline, why the underlying economic data looked stronger than the top-line number, and what Microsoft and Meta revealed about the AI spending boom. Plus, they explain why investors rewarded Microsoft's cost discipline, punished Meta's rising expenses, and what the blowup of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness says about leverage, risk, and the volatility behind the semiconductor trade.

The market is drawing a sharper line between companies that can justify AI spending and companies that still need to prove the payoff.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the very different reactions to Microsoft and Meta earnings, why Microsoft's cloud growth and spending discipline lifted the stock, and why Meta's rising costs and weaker outlook raised fresh concerns about AI investment. They also discuss Kevin Warsh's difficult second Fed meeting, why bond markets are testing his inflation credibility, and what rising long-term yields could mean for borrowers. Plus, they look at the risks of disruptions in global energy shipping, the push to restrict Chinese humanoid robots, the limits of the 4% retirement rule, retail investor losses in Korean AI stocks, Jersey Mike's planned IPO, and why LinkedIn may finally be admitting it has an AI slop problem.

Kevin Mahn breaks down the market fallout following Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and shares his reaction to Kevin Warsh's comments, including why he believes the Fed may stop reinvesting in securities. He also examines what this could mean for interest rates, market liquidity, and whether the “wall of worry” will continue to weigh on investors. Mahn also reveals his stock picks including Alphabet (GOOGL), TSM (TSM), and Micron (MU).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

AI has been the market's biggest winner—but Barry Knapp believes the trade is entering a new phase. In this conversation with Maggie Lake, Barry Knapp, Founder and Managing Partner of Ironsides Macroeconomics, explains why he's reduced his exposure to technology stocks, why the pace of AI capital spending is likely to slow, and where he's positioning instead. The discussion also explores why the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target was a mistake, what a Kevin Warsh-led Fed could mean for markets, why inflation is likely to stabilize around 2.5%, and why fiscal policy—not monetary policy—may be the biggest long-term risk facing investors. In this interview: • Why Barry is underweight technology stocks • Is the AI investment boom entering a new phase? • The Fed's biggest policy mistake • Kevin Warsh and the future of monetary policy • Why inflation may stabilize around 2.5% • Where Barry sees the biggest investment opportunities today • Why he believes a 10% market pullback is possible • The long-term risks of U.S. fiscal policy

President Donald Trump van Amerika het die Federale Reserwe gekritiseer wat rentekoerse onveranderd gelaat het, en sê laer koerse sal die ekonomie verder versterk. Beleidmakers het met 9 teen 3 gestem dat rentekoerse tussen 3,5-persent en 3,75-persent bly. Die besluit kom te midde van toenemende onsekerheid oor die uitwerking wat die voortslepende konflik in die Midde-Ooste op wêreldwye oliepryse en verbruikerspryse sal hê. Trump sê hy ondersteun steeds die Federale Reserwe se voorsitter, Kevin Warsh:

Meta-beleggers schrikken zich rot. De winst bij de eigenaar van Whatsapp, Insta en Facebook neemt af en toch gaat CEO Mark Zuckerberg méér geld uitgeven. Dit jaar tot wel 145 miljard dollar. De vrije kasstroom holt hard achteruit en staat op het laagste niveau in jaren. Beleggers willen antwoorden. Over de investeringen bijvoorbeeld, wanneer ze uitbetalen. Maar krijgen ze niet. Deze aflevering kijken we hoe lang Zuckerberg nog krijgt van z’n aandeelhouders. Hebben we het ook over Microsoft! Dat doet het wél goed. Geheime wapen: Azure! Verder gaat het natuurlijk over die bizar drukke beursdag. Maar liefst 19 Damrakbedrijven kwamen met de cijfers, waarvan 17 voorbeurs. We proberen er zoveel mogelijk te behandelen. Zo hoor je meer over de cijfers van Shell, BAM, Pharming, DSM Firmenich en AirFrance-KLM. Ook gaat het over de onenigheid binnen de Fed. Voorzitter Kevin Warsh geeft toe dat er een 'gezinsruzie' plaatsvond. Drie van de twaalf leden wilden niet dat de rente gelijk bleef: hij moest juist omhoog! En we hebben het over Arcadis, dat wéér een overnamebod afwijst. Te gast: Jean Paul van Oudheusden, analist bij eToro BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Je hoort hem ook in de BNR-podcast Moerdijk: dorp van de rekening. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en is redacteur bij de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

La presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum ha dicho que Pemex se ha recuperado y que, mientras más integrada y más pública, más eficiente es. Sin embargo, las cifras dadas a conocer esta semana muestra otra historia. Pemex parece ser mucho más eficiente refinando petróleo en Estados Unidos que refinándolo en México. Rosanety Barrios, analista independiente del sector energético, nos habla al respecto. En otros temas: Pese a la sombra de Trump y el T-MEC, Kia apuesta por México con una millonaria inversión eléctrica / El estreno de Kevin Warsh al frente de la Fed mostró una institución más dividida y preocupada por la inflación / ¿La FIFA está vendiendo el Mundial? Infantino abre un nuevo frente con la UEFA.

July 30, 2026 ~ David Sowerby, Managing Director and portfolio manager at Ancora Bloomfield Hills discusses the latest with the federal interest rate. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Joseph Sternberg notes Chairman Kevin Warsh is moving the Federal Reserve toward a "taciturn" style, ending the practice of "forward guidance." This reform aims to prevent the Fed from becoming locked into policies that may become inappropriate as data shifts. Sternberg suggests that saying less may protect the Fed from political conflict with the White House over tariffs. Markets must now interpret raw data rather than Fed signals. (14)1606

Plus: Oil prices jump after Iran launched a surprise attack on U.S. forces. And Ford shares rallies after raising outlook. Imani Moise hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Taylor Riggs joins the Marc Cox Morning Show to discuss Anthony Fauci, growing distrust in the medical establishment and the lasting impact of COVID-era restrictions. She also weighs in on the Federal Reserve's next move, why raising rates into an oil-driven supply shock could hurt the economy, and the role of Kevin Warsh at the Fed.

Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most uncertain Fed meetings in years as markets split over whether the central bank will hold rates steady or send a stronger inflation signal with a hike.Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane break down why today's Fed decision matters, how Warsh could build credibility with the bond market, and why even a small rate hike could carry major signaling power. They also discuss the renewed jump in oil prices, the unstable path of the conflict involving Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the Strait of Hormuz, and why energy markets remain difficult to predict. Plus, Todd Lutsky joins for Ask Todd to explain when irrevocable trusts make sense, why a revocable trust may not be the right first step for Medicaid planning, and how long-term care insurance can fit into a broader estate plan.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest decision on rates after keeping borrowing costs elevated throughout the year — and it could be one of the closest calls in years. #federalreserve #fomc #crypto  ~Rate Hike Decision

The Fed decided to hold interest rates for July but not without three FOMC members dissenting who instead favored a rate hike. David Busch sees Wednesday's decision and Kevin Warsh's press conference as an attempt to take the spotlight off the Fed and instead focus on market movements and current economic data. Warsh emphasized a 2% target for inflation during the press conference, something David sees as a challenge due to lasting impacts from the U.S.-Iran War and mixed market views on AI spending. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Welcome to the VRA Investing Podcast. In today's episode, the conversation focused on a volatile Fed day and the challenges facing markets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict with Iran. A key theme that emerged was the shift in Federal Reserve strategy under Kevin Warsh, with an emphasis on data-driven decisions and a reduction in forward guidance, in stark contrast to the Fed's past approach. The discussion explored the resilience of the U.S. economy and corporate earnings, even as momentum and tech stocks have faced sharp declines and investors confront heightened uncertainty. Several points were raised, including the potential impact of energy prices, the timing of possible buying opportunities in oversold sectors like semiconductors and the NASDAQ 100, and how historical lessons from previous bull markets should inform investor strategy in the current environment. As markets await clarity on the war and the potential for capitulation events, the episode offers perspective on navigating volatility and embracing the innovation revolution driving the next phase of growth.

Rendimentos dos Treasuries avançam e o índice dólar fica de lado, enquanto o Fed inicia sua segunda reunião sob Kevin Warsh.

President Trump insists his economic policies have supported a reshoring of manufacturing jobs. At a rally held at a Michigan GM facility on Monday, he doubled down. In reality, the U.S. has lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office in 2025. In this episode, we fact check the President's claims, and consider the future of Michigan's auto industry. Plus: Companies begin to offer insurance for AI mistakes, the U.S. trade deficit shrank a bit in June, and UPS winds down its Amazon delivery fulfilment partnership.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Trump says his aggressive trade policy is bringing back factory jobs. Is it?No really, what is Kevin Warsh thinking?New insurance products cover damages caused by AIUPS and FedEx are moving from higher volumes to higher marginsThe trade deficit fell in June, but remains highAs mortgage rates stay high, this lender is seeing buyers accept the new normal

P.M. Edition for July 28. The Washington, D.C. funeral for Lindsey Graham, who died earlier this month, drew current and formal officials and foreign leaders. President Trump gave a eulogy for the late senator, his one-time rival turned friend and adviser. Plus, the Trump administration is ending a subsidy program that helped hold down premiums for Medicare drug plans—a move that could make health care more expensive for some seniors. And the Fed's July meeting kicks off today, with a decision expected tomorrow. WSJ chief economics correspondent Nick Timiraos explains why this is one of the most unpredictable meetings in years. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen unpack what is likely to influence this week's interest rate decision by the Fed.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, will the Fed hold or hike? It's the question in the market right now. It's Tuesday, July 28th at 9:30am in New York. Will the Fed display patience, or has it run out of patience? That's the question hanging over the July FOMC meeting currently underway. We believe the former. We expect the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. The statement will probably also remain unchanged, reiterating the ample reserve policy, economic activity expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. So, Mike, what's your assessment of the situation beyond that? Michael Gapen: Our assessment of the July FOMC meeting is actually the case for hikes is not as persuasive now as it was in June. And I think when we say that and when we come to the decision the Fed will stay on hold this week, we're basing it mainly on the data that has come in since the June FOMC meeting. And two important pieces on that front are employment growth moderated. So, in the June meeting, the three-month average payroll gain was running at about 188,000 per month. And I think it gave the sense that the labor market was really accelerating and there was downside risk to the unemployment rate. The subsequent employment data changed that view. Now it looks like there is much less of an acceleration in hiring and momentum has slowed. So, the labor market doesn't look quite as robust. Second, there was a lot of information, we think, a lot of signal about disinflation. So yes, recent volatility in the Middle East did push oil prices temporarily higher. We'll see where that goes. But underneath the hood, there was significant softness in goods inflation and services inflation, particularly related to housing. So, we do think that there was a lot of evidence that disinflation is here. So, with those two things in mind, we think there's less of a case to hike in July than there was in June. So, we think the right thing... Or what we think the Fed will do is to skip July, try and buy a little more time, get a little more information. If disinflation is indeed here, the Fed stays on hold. If not, and inflation stays firm, well, they can move to rate hikes later this year. But we think the case to hike in July is less compelling than it was in June. Matthew Hornbach: Well, they certainly will get a lot more information between the July meeting and the September meeting. If memory serves, at least two more rounds of all of the major economic data points… Michael Gapen: That's right. Matthew Hornbach: Payroll, CPI, and so on. Michael Gapen: That's right. The gap between the July FOMC meeting and the September FOMC meeting is the longest on the Fed's calendar. Of course, in part, that makes room for Jackson Hole in August, which if the Fed were moving to a tightening cycle, could be a venue to lay out the case for that. But you're right, they will see multiple employment and inflation reports before they meet again in September. Matthew Hornbach: If they really wanted to get ahead of that data and move at this meeting, what is the case for hiking rates in July? How would you think about that perspective? Michael Gapen: I think you could make a couple of cases to hike now. One is recent volatility and conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher. Maybe it convinces you – you're in a prolonged oil risk premium scenario, and inflation will not dissipate. Second, I think you could argue, well, it's a balance of risks argument. And we think risks have just shifted in the direction of inflation, where last year they were in the direction of a weaker labor market. We eased last year. Let's just reverse those risk management rate cuts this year. So, it's not about inflation in hand, it's about your view of risks around inflation. Another, I think, and to me, this is the most important one, is maybe Warsh wants a regime change in the reaction function. In other words, he emphasizes price stability and achieving the 2 percent target. Well, at some point, words are words and actions are actions. And maybe what he desires is a more hawkish reaction function and kind of a higher interest rate all else equal to guide inflation down to 2 percent more quickly. So, I think, Matt, if we're wrong this week, I think the main reason we're wrong is I'm thinking under an older reaction function, and Warsh is bringing a new one. And right now, we don't exactly know what his reaction function is. And he could reveal it this week as being in a direction where he really wants to concentrate on the inflation side of the mandate to the exclusion of nearly everything else. Matthew Hornbach: Well, I don't think that's lost on markets at all. And in fact, I think that the rise in yields we've seen in the bond market concentrated in the real yield component of the 10-year Treasury bond tells you a lot about how investors are thinking the Fed will react to higher energy prices. As energy prices have gone up, so have bond yields. The relationship between those two asset prices are very strong. And usually what that suggests is if the real yield is going up more than the break-even inflation rate is going up as energy prices rise, it's telling you that investors think the Fed will not look through the rise in energy prices. If you have the opposite happen, where your break-even inflation rate is going higher, more so than the real interest rate is going higher, that would suggest investors think the Fed will look through the energy price increase. That just hasn't been the case, and so I think investors are very much attuned to what they think is the right reaction function for the Fed. But I guess we'll see. Only time will tell. And I think in order to help us tell what the right reaction function is – we'll need some communication from the Fed. And maybe that's where I want to go next with you – is on communication. It does seem like there have been fewer FOMC participants speaking to the public since Chairman Warsh began his tenure as chairman. Is that your impression? How do you think about communication? And since we are in the midst of this FOMC meeting, the press conference… What do you think about press conferences going forward? Michael Gapen: I do think you're right. I haven't counted up the literal official FOMC communications. I do think there have likely been fewer speeches and/or interviews given recently. And whether or not that's a function of Kevin Warsh as the chairman or it's summer and things move a little slower, I don't know. I will say, though, that when participants have spoken, I think we're getting the same, say, normal communication that they brought in the past. So far, I don't read participants as unwilling to provide their view about the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. On the press conference, boy, would that be a change. I've been of the view that you probably will not get what I'll call a major change to the SEPs or the press conferences in terms of their frequency until the task force on communications has run its course, where I think the deadline is ultimately later this year. So, I don't think the schedule of press conferences will change until 2027, if it changes at all. But if we don't have them… The way that I would look at that, Matt, is to say, if the Fed's speaking less, there will be a vacuum out there to some degree. So, if the Fed's giving its view on the outlook and monetary policy less frequently, something else will fill that narrative, whether it's markets or the private sector or whatever it is. Vacuums are going to get filled. The Fed's speaking less, somebody else will speak more. Maybe that drives volatility more. I guess it would depend on the situation, but I think pulling press conferences would be a major surprise. I don't think it's in market expectations, and my belief is it would probably lead to some increase in volatility over time.How would you read it? Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. I think the void has already begun to be filled by investors and how they think about the Fed's reaction function, rightly or wrongly. Which is why I think we've seen real yields move in a very positively correlated way with energy prices. Investors are intuiting a certain reaction function to higher energy prices. Whether or not that is the correct view, only time will tell. If we do have a press conference at this upcoming meeting, which looks very likely, investors are going to pay attention to every nuance and every shift in the chairman's tone. How he chooses to address certain questions versus others—or whether he chooses to address them at all—will be important for market participants and how they invest in the bond and currency markets. With that, Mike, thanks again for taking the time to talk. I look forward to catching up with you again in late August around the Jackson Hole symposium. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Thanks for having me on. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

President Trump insists his economic policies have supported a reshoring of manufacturing jobs. At a rally held at a Michigan GM facility on Monday, he doubled down. In reality, the U.S. has lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office in 2025. In this episode, we fact check the President's claims, and consider the future of Michigan's auto industry. Plus: Companies begin to offer insurance for AI mistakes, the U.S. trade deficit shrank a bit in June, and UPS winds down its Amazon delivery fulfilment partnership.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Trump says his aggressive trade policy is bringing back factory jobs. Is it?No really, what is Kevin Warsh thinking?New insurance products cover damages caused by AIUPS and FedEx are moving from higher volumes to higher marginsThe trade deficit fell in June, but remains highAs mortgage rates stay high, this lender is seeing buyers accept the new normal

The AI trade is facing a tougher test as chip stocks sell off, Korean markets tumble, and investors question whether the massive spending behind artificial intelligence can keep delivering returns.Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane break down why semiconductor stocks are under pressure, how Nvidia's potential financing backstop for OpenAI is raising concerns about circular funding, and why China's CXMT debut could threaten profit margins across the memory chip industry. They also discuss the sharp drop in Samsung and SK Hynix, the leverage risks building in Korea's retail trading market, Apple crossing a $5 trillion valuation, and why Kevin Warsh's upcoming Fed decision could be one of the most uncertain meetings investors have faced in years. Plus, they look at falling oil prices, stubborn gasoline costs, and why the starter home has become increasingly difficult to find in New England.

The Fed announces its latest interest rate decision Wednesday—but is Wall Street missing the real story? Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, joins Maggie Lake to explain why this could be one of the most consequential Fed meetings in years, why he believes rates should be higher, and why a fundamentally different Federal Reserve is changing how investors should think about markets. Plus, Bianco breaks down what tomorrow's decision could mean for inflation, bond yields, and your portfolio.

Kevin Warsh is heading into his second Fed meeting with markets unusually divided over whether the Fed will hold steady or raise rates.Mike Armstrong and Chuck Zodda break down why this week's Fed meeting matters, how Warsh could build credibility on inflation, and why markets are less certain about the Fed's next move than they have been in years. They also discuss the packed earnings calendar for Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, what investors want to hear about AI spending, why grocery prices rise quickly but rarely fall, and why lower prices across the economy are usually a warning sign rather than a benefit. Plus, they look at hiring trends, Gen X investors approaching retirement, shrinking child populations in major cities, and the debate over whether companies should still be required to report earnings every quarter.

Lyn Alden joins Walker to discuss where Bitcoin may be in the current market cycle, why today's “peak apathy” could represent an accumulation zone, and how the massive flow of capital into AI has affected Bitcoin and crypto markets. Lyn also breaks down Orange Juice, her new permanent-capital company designed to acquire durable, cash-flowing businesses and retain part of their earnings in Bitcoin. They explore why this model differs from pure-play Bitcoin treasury companies and traditional private equity, the coming generational transfer of small businesses, and how AI can make established companies more efficient without simply replacing workers. The conversation also covers the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh, inflation and interest rates, AI as a long-term deflationary force, China's open-source AI strategy, the geopolitical AI arms race, and why decentralized and open-source AI could ultimately empower individuals. FOLLOW LYN: NOSTR: https://primal.net/lyn X: https://x.com/LynAldenContact CHECK OUT ORANGE JUICE: https://orangejuice.com/ LISTEN TO "THE STOLGUARD INCIDENT": https://www.audible.com/pd/The-Stolguard-Incident-Audiobook/B0H2BHLNKV PARTNERS & DISCOUNTS: LEDN: Bitcoin-backed lending. Go to ledn.io/walker and unlock liquidity WITHOUT selling your bitcoin. BLOCKSTREAM JADE: BLOCKSTREAM JADE HARDWARE WALLET: Head to https://store.blockstream.com/ and use coupon code WALKER for 10% off! BDIC™ is building an insurance marketplace on the bitcoin standard. Sign up for the waitlist at: http://bdic.io/walker Own Bitcoin Miners. Keep 100% Of The Bitcoin. Get 1st month of free hosting with https://abundantmines.com/walker Buy Bitcoin with River: http://partner.river.com/walker GET FOLD ($10 in bitcoin): https://use.foldapp.com/r/WALKER JOIN THE SUBSTACK TO GET NEW EPISODES DELIVERED STRAIGHT TO YOUR INBOX: https://walkeramerica.substack.com/ If you enjoy THE Bitcoin Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following: FOLLOW ME (Walker) on @WalkerAmerica on X | @TitcoinPodcast on X | Nostr Personal (walker) | Nostr Podcast (Titcoin) | Instagram | YouTube | Everywhere else

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Liz Peek. Peek critiques New York politician Zohran Mamdani for failing to define the working class, arguing the DSAprimarily represents white, college-educated liberals. She also discusses Kevin Warsh's influence and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates despite inflationary pressures and global instability in the Middle East. (2)1900

SCHEDUKE JBS 7-21-26Elizabeth Peek joins John Batchelor to discuss how rising gasoline prices act as a talisman for consumer sentiment and presidential approval. Despite low unemployment and rising real wages, the public remains fixated on energy costs. Peek criticizes Republican messaging and highlights the massive AI-driven investment boom currently occurring. (1)Elizabeth Peek discusses New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's inability to define the "working class." She argues the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) primarily represent white, college-educated liberals rather than manual laborers. They also discuss Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed chairman and the independence of interest rate decisions. (2)Peter Berkowitz examines Vice President JD Vance's views on restoring Christianity in America. Berkowitz highlights the ambiguity in Vance's stance regarding government involvement in religion. They contrast Vance's rhetoric with James Madison's historical opposition to state-funded religion, emphasizing the constitutional separation of church and state. (3)Ahmad Sharawi reports on Syria's interception of sophisticated Iranian weapons—including cruise missile components—destined for Hezbollah. The weapons were concealed in Iraqi oil tankers. This move is seen as Al-Shara's attempt to gain international trust and investment by demonstrating a commitment to containing Hezbollah's rearmament. (4)Mary Kissel discusses the ongoing conflict with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. She argues there is no diplomatic overlap because Iran views nuclear weapons as essential for survival. Kissel notes the lack of a broad international coalition and warns that regional allies might seek accommodation with Tehran. (5)Mary Kissel turns to NATO's lack of unity regarding the Ukraine war. Kissel argues that while Eastern Europeannations feel the threat, Western Europe focuses on domestic politics. She highlights the emergence of a "new alliance" of Russia, Iran, and China, which poses a significant hybrid threat. (6)Joseph Sternberg analyzes China's struggling economy, noting that official growth targets are likely overstated. Facing a real estate crater and demographic decline, China is reverting to an export-heavy model. Unlike Japan's past recovery, China's adversarial stance makes trading partners less willing to absorb its gluts. (7)Joseph Sternberg discusses the transition to Prime Minister Andy Burnham in the UK. Burnham, who took office without an election mandate, faces a heavily taxed economy and bond market skepticism. Sternberg critiques Burnham's big-government agenda and resistance to market reforms, suggesting it may drive away wealth. (8)Gregory Copley evaluates Prime Minister Andy Burnham's new cabinet, specifically John Healey as Chancellor and Wes Streeting as Defense Secretary. While the government aims to boost defense spending and support Ukraine, Copley questions its legitimacy without a fresh mandate and notes a lack of long-term global strategic planning. (9)Gregory Copley covers the alienation of Canada under the Trump administration. Copley explains how Canada is diversifying its defense procurement—buying Swedish aircraft and Australian radar—rather than relying on the US. This shift threatens the NORAD partnership and results in billions of dollars lost for US aerospace industries. (10)Gregory Copley explores the "balance of ignorance," where declining literacy and social media lead to a loss of national identity. He argues that governments make poor strategic decisions because they no longer understand their own history or adversaries, citing the current US conflict with Iran as a primary example. (11)Gregory Copley explains King Charles III's role in forming Andy Burnham's government. The King's "blessing" provides constitutional legitimacy to the transition. Copley notes Burnham is the first practicing Roman Catholic Prime Minister and highlights the King's departure to Glasgow to open the Commonwealth Games. (12)Former Congressman Thaddeus McCotter discusses how rising gas prices and inflation hurt Republicans in swing states. They also examine the Trump administration's use of the Smoot-Hawley Act to threaten tariffs on Canada. McCotter views these as punitive measures that weaken the broader argument for necessary trade protections. (13)Thaddeus McCotter comments on a recent presidential address regarding the 2020 election. He argues that claiming the system is "rigged" is counterproductive for Republican turnout. McCotter suggests that voters care far more about the "price of gas" and groceries than relitigating past elections that the party lost. (14)John Batchelor and Peter Huessy review classic nuclear war films like Godzilla, On the Beach, and Dr. Strangelove. Huessy argues that while these films highlight the horrors of nuclear use, real-world focus has evolved toward deterrence and sophisticated safety systems designed to prevent accidental or unauthorized missile launches. (15)Peter Huessy continues the discussion of nuclear films like Fail Safe and The Day After. Huessy disputes claims that The Day After motivated Ronald Reagan's arms control efforts, noting Reagan was a committed advocate for nuclear reductions long before the movie's massive 1983 television broadcast. (16)Corrections applied silently: Ahmad Sharawi (4) and Thaddeus McCotter (13, 14) per the log.