Know The Difference Minute

Nobody was expecting the Fed to change rates, so they met expectations.

Japan just ended a nearly two-decade term of negative rates. Are negative rates the carrot or the stick? 

New retail figures for February arrived this morning. Up a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, but under by most estimates. 

Big piece in the New York Times regarding how our cars are reporting bad driving to insurance companies. 

The very slim chance of a rate cut next week disappeared this morning when a fresh Consumer Price Index arrived 

Target announced a paid membership program along the lines of Amazon Prime and Walmart Plus.

Credit scores for American consumers are down for the first time in a decade. Don't be surprised. 

A Gallup study revealed 79% of Americans don't trust companies to use AI responsibly. 

Think Wendy's surge pricing meltdown will be covered in business school some day?  

You didn't know then what you know now. Hindsight tells us what played out well, but foresight is what's needed when it comes to investing.

Plenty of jitters leading up to Nvidia's earnings report. Was the Genie out of the bottle? 

The average price of a new vehicle was just over $47,000 last month, down 2.6% from December. Meanwhile, 2.6 million are sitting on lots. 

Walmart is going to acquire Vizio for $2.3 billion. It's a tie-up that will combine America's largest retailer with a network of smart TV's.

Some major companies in the S&P 500 have said it's becoming increasingly clear that Americans are under stress, which could cause consumers to eventually curb their spending. 

One extra zero in an earnings statement caused a $2 billion swing. 

On the way to a soft landing, inflation was supposed to be heading south. Today's CPI report had other ideas.

Financial assets were the big driver, growing over 50% as they invested in equities and mutual funds. With longer time horizons, they tended to pick riskier investments. 

Coming this fall. 15 different networks with the 4 major professional sports leagues including the NBA, MLB and NHL. Also in: WNBA, NASCAR, NCAA and FIFA World Cup. Networks confirmed include ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN2, ESPNU, SEC, ACC, ABC, Fox, FS1, FS2, Big Ten, TNT, TBS and truTV.  

The Fed will approach the question of when to reduce interest rates carefully, says Chairman Powell. When will enough be enough?

Producing content is expensive. Is borrowing a login content stealing? These streamers think so. 

Developing AI is expensive. To pay for it, Google spent $2.1 billion on severance last year laying off more than 12,000. And just this month, its already spent $700 million on employee severance. 

After base, bonuses, and stock awards, some Walmart Superstore managers can make over $400,000.  

It's clear economist's consensus whiffed on this one. Predictions were in the 2% range but instead, came it at 3.3%.  Off from Q3's 4.9% but still another sign that the widely predicted recession was sitting this one out while the American consumer is not. 

Delinquency rates on credit cards have climbed 3 straight years. After the friendship bracelets are put away, the credit card statements start showing up. 

If there's any good news, this is already leaked data. Unfortunately, it's all rolled up into one big dataset and sitting on the dark web. For sale.

Historically, corrections become bear markets when fears become reality.

Investors need to embrace the fact that every decision about the future requires a leap of faith. 

Next time some mentions a market cycle or economic cycle, ask them what's so cyclical about it. 

The Fed has been the arsonist and the firefighter. They were too slow to react to high inflation and then they reacted by hiking rates with reckless abandon.

In the third quarter, China's gross domestic product grew at a 5.3% annualized pace. Consumption was a big driver of growth while the property sector is still struggling. 

A roving recession that hasn't affected the consumer, yet, could turn into a stumbling recovery for everyone else. 

The US government has issued $33 trillion in debt. So who owns all of it?

The word “unprecedented” has been used a lot over the last few years. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Was there a major breakthrough of bipartisanship? It seems like nobody can agree on where to start the cleanup.

GDP revised. Yes, they're still trying to figure out how much output the economy produced. And they'll be doing that for decades to come.

Aren't bonds supposed to provide support to falling stocks? That's how things seemed to work during the two decades before COVID. 

A shutdown delays rather than cancels spending. In fact, a shutdown only affects up to 27% of total federal spending. 

The Federal Open Market Committee won't tell you what they will do because they don't even know 

Most consumers don't care about oil prices. They care about gasoline prices. 

The federal government has spent $5.5 trillion since October 2022 and it has only collected $4 trillion. That's not a sustainable path 

Revised down from 0.7% to 0.5%. Not bad, but not as good as originally reported. 

Inflation is heading the right way, but August was a hopefully temporary step backwards. 

Trade is, and always was, political, it's just becoming more so.

Don't be fooled by the false precision of hard data. The fact is, it's all squishy. 

Monthly averages can be driven by wild moves that have nothing to do with what month it is. 

If you hear economists use the phrase, “It was a Goldilocks report,” please remember Baby Bear and that Goldilocks was a criminal.

The swing from spending on services to goods during COVID and then back towards services may be petering out.

The good news is that the Fed might feel like it can stop pumping the brakes on the economy.

People seem to be more skittish about just up and quitting. They're holding onto jobs a bit more tightly than a year ago.

Unlike paying taxes where there is a deadline, the economy does not obey the clock.

Existing home sales in July fell 16.6% from a year prior but new home sales are up 31.5%