Podcasts about retail sales

P.M. Edition for Aug. 28. Economics correspondent Nick Timiraos reports from Jackson Hole on how investors are interpreting Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech. Plus, some of President Trump's biggest corporate donors are now cutting checks to Democrats, too. WSJ's White House reporter Annie Linskey explains how American companies are preparing for a potential Democratic comeback in November. And WSJ's global energy reporter Collin Eaton unpacks how Chevron and other U.S. energy companies are closing in on deals worth billions to expand in Venezuela's oil fields. Sabrina Siddiqui hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Oil and Treasury yields drop as the US sets out more Iran sanctions; Singapore's core inflation jumps but was weaker than expected. New Zealand retail sales drop, highlighting a stalled economy in Q2. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma reviews how Asia sovereign risks are tracking amid the Middle East conflict and bond market uncertainty. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing AI-driven capital expenditures as an unprecedented share of GDP and discusses risks tied to funding costs. Citing Strategas, he notes steepening periods historically favor energy and financials over tech/communications. On politics, he sees polling and prediction markets suggesting a potential Democratic Senate flip, with Michigan pivotal, though Republicans may have a post–Labor Day spending edge. Economically, July retail sales fell 0.6%, while large tariff refunds may be supporting activity; he also flags housing affordability issues and previews Jackson Hole and upcoming Dividend Cafe content. 00:00 Welcome and Charlottesville 00:44 Market Close Recap 01:36 AI CapEx and GDP 02:59 Yield Curve Steepening 04:38 Senate Polling Outlook 07:36 Retail Sales and Tariff Refunds 09:06 Housing Affordability Chart 10:17 Fed Signals and Jackson Hole 11:39 Oil Prices and Rig Counts 12:26 Upcoming Shows and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Blaming Amazon's Prime Day, everyone is trying to work around yet another "unexpected" negative number. Following an "unexpected" drop in July payrolls, the Census Bureau now reports an "unexpected" drop in retail sales alongside an "unexpected" setback in consumer confidence and, yes, an "unexpected" decline in gasoline usage during peak driving season. None of this is unexpected, just the work of more mini-cycles. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/08/14/retail-sales-unexpectedly-fell-in-july.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/08/14/a-big-miss-on-retail-sales-in-july-heres-what-to-know.htmlhttps://www.facebook.com/Reuters/videos/amazon-prime-day-to-gauge-us-consumer-strain/3972193316417707/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yx7q-tX-BQYhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US economy is starting to show signs of exhaustion - just as the Chinese economy looks like it can't actually transition to one where internal demand replaces their industrial exports engine, as they were planning. But locally this week it will be all about how July retail sales turned out, and an update on our June population. And there will be a rush of earnings reports out this week from listed companies. In Australia we will get their July labour market update, and both the August Westpac consumer confidence survey results, along with an update of inflation expectations. Globally. te ongoing standstill between Iran and the US should continue to dictate energy prices and influence global interest rates. Rates will also take the spotlight with minutes from the last divisive meeting of the Federal Reserve, which included three dissents. More US data is expected to confirm their slowing economy. In Japan there will be a raft of data updates for the world's fourth largest economy, including for GDP, exports, inflation, machinery orders and flash PMI data. Indonesia and Sweden will review policy rates and settings this week. In China, July data released this week will include industrial production, retail sales, house prices, fixed asset investment and their unemployment rate. The People's Bank of China is also widely expected to leave its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively This will come even though they have surprised with their bank lending actually contracting in July, only the third time ever this has happened and by far the largest retreat. Net new yuan loans fell by -¥340 bln in July when a weak no-change was expected (actually a minor +¥45 bln). July is often a lowish month for new bank lending but this latest data represents some real weaknesses. A slowing economy and poor consumer sentiment, particularly for housing, limited the demand for loans. About -¥460 bln of this fall was for consumer debt. But the swing also reflects the downturn for the traditional business sectors of the economy. Their tech sector commonly raises cash in the bond market instead of bank loans. So within this result there may be evidence of a structural shift. Taiwan said its economic activity came in +12.9% higher in Q2-2026 from a year ago, lower than the +15.4% rise in Q1-2026.GDP. It was still the second-best growth pace they have recorded in almost 50 years. Malaysia said its economic activity expanded +6.0% in Q2-2026, a rise from the +5.4% in Q1-2026 and better than the expected +5.7%. In India, the bank lending impulse has the taps open fully, with lending up more than +19% at the end of July from the same point a year ago. This is a new modern record rise rate, and to record levels. Across the Pacific, US retail sales took an unexpected dip in July from June. They fell -0.6% on that basis when a +0.1% rise to compliment June's rise was expected. This is a big miss and was the first decline since October 2025 and the largest in over a year. Weaker sales at online retailers, car dealers, petrol stations and electronics stores shifted the needle, so it was a broad based dip. From a year ago, these July sales were still up +5.2% from earlier gains. Also dipping was US consumer sentiment, but this is for August, so the dour mood is extending. The widely-watched University of Michigan survey came in back at levels that followed the US attacks on Iran, so the July rise was an anomaly. A small easing was expected, but not one this big. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.2% in July to 4.3% this month. Inflation and inflation expectations are key for the Fed. The new boss Kevin Warsh may not want to talk about the elevated threats, but other regional governors are, some who vote. The Atlanta Fed's boss isn't one of those but she says inflation is too high and risks staying like that and embedding unless the Middle East situation resolves quickly. The Chicago Fed's boss is worried too. Current CPI is 3.4% officially, but the Cleveland Fed nowcasts the PCE measure of inflation and their latest update has it at over 3.7%. These levels are a long way from the mandated 2% policy rate and Warsh is likely to get out-voted when they next meet in Mid-September. Financial markets currently price in one chance in three of a +25 bps rise then. And for the record, current US petrol prices are now +5.7% higher than month-ago levels. Diesel is +11% higher on that same basis. Their inflation threat is not receding. Meanwhile the EU reported that Q2-2026, economic activity rose +0.4% in the euro area and by +0.5% in the overall EU compared with the previous quarter, up +1.0% and +1.2% respectively from a year ago. So recent activity is picking up, although in a way that was broadly anticipated. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday, up +5 bps for the week.  The price of gold is stable, now at US$4376/oz, up just +US$2 from Saturday, up +US$39 from this time last week. Silver has held at just over US$64.50/oz, up a net +US$1 for the week. Oil prices are unchanged from Saturday at just under US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$88.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$78 and US$83.50/bbl respectively, so a +6% weekly rise.  The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at just under 58.9 USc and unchanged for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.5, unchanged from this time Saturday and very similar to a week ago. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,102and up +0.4% from this time Saturday, down -2.6% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been very low at just on +/-0.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Paychecks aren't keeping pace with rising prices, and households are feeling the squeeze. Sailors on the ships deployed to the Middle East are straining without enough clean water and fresh food. In the thick of primary season for the midterms, how reliable is polling? Support public media with NPR+ and enjoy perks for over 25 podcasts like this one. This show's perks include sponsor-free listening. Learn more at plus.npr.org.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

P.M. Edition for Aug. 14. Money managers have a problem: Clients are holding near-record amounts in cash—by one estimate more than $3 trillion. Miriam Gottfried, a reporter and co-host of WSJ's Take On the Week podcast, explains why this is happening and what financial planners are pushing their clients to do instead. Plus, two pieces of data—July retail sales and the preliminary August reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey—came in lower than expected. WSJ economics reporter Matt Grossman says that is painting a picture of a weaker U.S. economy. And AI slop is everywhere, making it hard to know what's real online. We hear from WSJ personal tech columnist Nicole Nguyen about the inspiration for her recent special Tech News Briefing podcast series, “AI and the Blurring of Reality.” Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Forecasters predicted we'd see a slight increase in retail sales in July, but instead, Census Bureau data released this morning revealed a significant drop. As high energy prices persist and tax refunds run out, it appears that consumers have begun to pull back. Should we be worried? Plus: 200 Nebraskans have lost Medicaid coverage in the first wave of terminations under the government's new “work requirements.” Many more Americans may soon follow.Stories featured in today's episode:Roughly 200 people in Nebraska lost Medicaid on Aug. 1Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace Morning Report is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Forecasters predicted we'd see a slight increase in retail sales in July, but instead, Census Bureau data released this morning revealed a significant drop. As high energy prices persist and tax refunds run out, it appears that consumers have begun to pull back. Should we be worried? Plus: 200 Nebraskans have lost Medicaid coverage in the first wave of terminations under the government's new “work requirements.” Many more Americans may soon follow.Stories featured in today's episode:Roughly 200 people in Nebraska lost Medicaid on Aug. 1Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace Morning Report is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Plus: Reddit shares pop before it joins the S&P 500. And the Trump administration asks the Supreme Court to allow ballroom construction. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew and Tom discuss retail sales falling 0.6% month-over-month against an expected 0.1% gain, with the prior month also revised lower, driving the market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike this year down to 27% from near-certainty just two weeks ago, a weak 30-year Treasury auction that priced at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, with bonds continuing to decouple from cooling inflation and labor data, Trump announcing 100% tariffs on unmanned drones in a further push to decouple supply chains from China, and Cobb County's 5-2 vote greenlighting the Powers Ferry data center despite local opposition.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

While July 2026 retail sales have fallen, Kevin Hincks notes that the metrics are still up overall year-over-year. Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD) and related earnings next week are what he sees serving as important catalysts for the retail space. Kevin turns to other macro movers as he says the U.S. is starting to play the "long game" with Iran by strangling its economy as headlines clash around the Strait of Hormuz. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Hitha Herzog explains why July's retail sales miss does not signal a major slowdown in consumer spending. She points to the timing of Amazon's (AMZN) Prime Day and spending data from Block's (XYZ) Cash App and Afterpay, showing consumers remain active but are prioritizing essentials such as groceries, utilities and dining. She also discusses what retailers should consider as they prepare inventory strategies for the holiday shopping season.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The slight downtick in July retail sales is something Eric Brackman didn't expect to see. He expresses concerns on how it could be the start of consumers becoming more selective with purchases as the overhang of inflation pressures spending. Eric explains the impacts he expects to see in consumer spending and how AI plays a role in the outlook. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Friday's new round of economic data disappointed on the macro front, though tech earnings throughout the week from companies like CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), Super Micro (SMCI), and Lumentum (LITE) added equity muscle. Marley Kayden and Sam Vadas take investors through Friday's top takeaways. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Eric Rosengren, Former Boston Fed President, talks Fed's next move and its focus on US inflation. He talks to Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick and Isabelle Lee.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AP correspondent Jennifer King reports on a disappointing July retail sales report.

CNBC Business News Update with Jessica Ettinger - Markets & Business News With Expert Analysis From Top Business Names. Visit CNBC.com For More. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

CNBC Business News Update with Jessica Ettinger - Markets & Business News With Expert Analysis From Top Business Names. Visit CNBC.com For More. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Americans pulled back on retail spending last month as consumer confidence weakened - raising new concerns about the health of the consumer-driven economy, a grassroots consumer movement is growing across the country, and an Army Golden Knight takes his skills into life after the military.

Getting your product on the shelf is only the first step. The real challenge is getting shoppers to notice it, try it, and buy it.In this episode, I sit down with Matthew Kubick of Local Demo Service to break down how CPG brands can use in-store demos to drive sales, learn from customers, and build stronger retail velocity.We talk about Matthew's simple four-step framework for turning samples into purchases, why founders should do their own demos early on, and how your strategy should change across retailers like Sprouts and Costco.If you're trying to improve sell-through, make the most of your retail launch, or turn sampling into actual sales, this episode is packed with practical strategies you can use.Startup to Scale is a podcast by Foodbevy, an online community to connect emerging food, beverage, and CPG founders to great resources and partners to grow their business. Visit us at Foodbevy.com to learn about becoming a member or an industry partner today.

Here's a look at the week ahead on Wall Street.

A retailer I once worked with was selling children's clothes by the hundred. When we finally costed everything properly, she was making about 50 pence an item.Hi, I'm retail strategist and founder of Resilient Retail Club, Catherine Erdly.Most of us build a product business the sensible way round — get trading first, worry about the back end later. And that is the right instinct at the start. But somewhere along the way the sales data ends up living in Shopify, the stock data lives somewhere else entirely, the costs live in your accountant's software, and when you finally put the three side by side, none of them agree. This week I'm joined by Stacey Dorrian, who I've known since we were the two senior merchandisers at Coast, and who has spent 25 years since then working in retail data. We talk about what actually happens inside a growing product business that has never built any structure underneath its numbers.We get into the questions most retailers never stop to ask. Are you recording your cost of goods anywhere at all? Is your best seller genuinely your best seller, or just your busiest product with the margin quietly stripped out of it? Are you staffing, stocking and reordering a corner of your business that isn't earning its place on the floor? And if you're carrying eight, ten, thirteen thousand lines, how would you ever know? Stacey explains why a sales report only ever answers one of the four questions your data is capable of answering — and why the other three are where the money actually is.I also share the moment that retailer realised she had never had a sales problem at all, and Stacey walks through exactly where she would start if your numbers are currently a mess and the whole thing feels too big to open. By the end you'll understand why gut decisions get more expensive the bigger your order quantities get, what "sales is vanity, profit is sanity" really costs you in practice rather than as a slogan, and the three things to fix, in the order to fix them. Press play to find out where to begin.CHAPTERS00:00 The signals your shop is missing04:40 The four questions your numbers can answer06:15 Sales is vanity — the costs nobody records12:02 Where to start if your numbers are a messLINKSApply for Stock Doctor: stockdoctor.netAll episodes: https://www.resilientretailclub.com/podcast/Catherine on LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/catherineerdlyLSE Data Analytics Career Accelerator (mentioned in the episode): lse.ac.uk

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices are up today as Iran flexes its diplomatic muscle and threats, one of which is an effort to block US ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile Trump is backing away from more action in the region, potentially leaving US allies in the lurch. Through all this, crude prices are rising again, and US pump prices never dopped back during the recent fall in crude prices. That has bond markets worried that inflation may be about to turn up again, and yields rose somewhat today. In the US, July job cut announcements were very low. In fact, US-based employers announced 33,429 job cuts in the month, the fewest in two years. But AI led all reasons for job cuts for a fifth straight month and was responsible for almost 11,000 during the month. The tech sector cut the most jobs, followed by the financial sector. Cut is government , and services were almost non-existent. This data comes ahead of tomorrow's July non-farm payrolls report which is expected to show jobs growth a very low +80,000. US jobless claims dipped last week but only by what seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.84 mln people on these benefits slightly lower than a year ago, and two years ago. Tough eligibility restrictions are restraining enrollment in conjunction with tougher restrictions on eligibility for SNAP (food stamps). More than 4 mln people have been cleared from these programs and much tougher restrictions are coming. The USDA has restricted access to data recording the numbers of people receiving this assistance. While still elevated, the NY Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index eased low in July. In Europe, retail sales sagged slightly in June, dipping -0.1% from May when a +0.1% rise was expected. That leaves them up +1.2% from a year ago on a real/volume basis. Meanwhile, German factory orders rose +3.1% in June from May to be +6.5% higher than year ago levels, an accelerating pace from May. Apart from a few newsworthy bumps in between, in fact these order levels have been on an upswing since September 2025. Strong export growth in June delivered Australia an unexpected trade surplus, of +AU$1.9 bln when a deficit of -AU$1.1 was expected after May's -AU$2.4 bln deficit. Their exports rose +8.6% from a year ago, boosted by an unusual rise in gold exports, up more than +25% from the same month a year ago. Global container freight rates turned up marginally last week from the prior week to be +77% higher than year-ago levels. Outbound rates from China to the US drove the rise, which rates to and from the EU were lower. Those rates have to compete with the very fast & successful overland rail service out of China. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates jumped more than +12% in the past week to be +60% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has dipped to US$4245/oz, down -US$8 from yesterday. Silver has dipped -50 USc at just over US$61.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday and now just under US$77.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$82.50/bbl and up +US$3.50. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There has been no crude tanker and 11 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and nine entering for new loads (4 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low with just a few more than than 20 either way at the Yemen chokepoint. Alternative routes are now making a significant, if costly, difference. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.4 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,550 and down -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Retail doesn't need to feel awkward, complicated, or forced. In this episode, Lisa shares a simple framework - Retail CARE Explained - that brings together the key principles of great retail into something your whole team can actually use. From rapport and expertise to action and consistency, this episode gives you a clear path forward to make retail part of your everyday service. Want more clients walking through your door without relying on an agency? 

Explore Dry Creek Vineyard in California's Dry Creek Valley with guest Darren Abel and returning guest Stephen Nasiatka. We discuss the winery's history, signature wines including Mariness and Spencer's Hill Petite Sirah, Sonoma wine country, and delicious food pairing ideas you can try at home. Dry Creek Vineyard has been a pioneer in California's Dry Creek Valley since 1972, helping shape the region into one of Sonoma County's premier wine destinations. In this Virtual Winery Visit, I'm joined by Darren Abel, Director of Hospitality and Retail Sales at Dry Creek Vineyard, along with returning guest Stephen Nasiatka, Founder and Chief Wine Officer of StephenUncorked and a Dry Creek Vineyard Ambassador. We begin with the story of winery founder David Stare, an MIT graduate with Boston roots, whose vision helped establish the first winery built in the Dry Creek Valley after Prohibition. Darren explains what makes the region's climate and soils so well suited to varieties like Sauvignon Blanc, Zinfandel, and Petite Sirah, and why Dry Creek Vineyard has remained committed to producing wines that express the unique character of the valley. Along the way, we taste two featured wines: 2023 Mariness, a distinctive white Bordeaux-style blend with bright acidity, layered texture, and excellent food-pairing versatility. 2021 Spencer's Hill Petite Sirah, a rich yet approachable expression of Petite Sirah that showcases the winery's gentle approach to winemaking. Of course, the conversation wouldn't be complete without plenty of food pairing ideas. We discuss oysters, lobster, grilled steak, barbecue, braised short ribs, dark chocolate, and more, while I share my own pairing experiences with Mariness alongside pan-seared scallops and Spencer's Hill Petite Sirah with sausage and kale pasta. Whether you're planning a trip to Sonoma County or simply looking for inspiration for your next bottle of wine, this episode offers a behind-the-scenes look at one of California's most respected family wineries. In this episode, you'll learn: The history behind Dry Creek Vineyard and its role in reviving the Dry Creek Valley. Why the winery focuses on varieties that thrive in its unique terroir. The story behind Mariness and Spencer's Hill Petite Sirah. Practical food pairing ideas for both wines. What makes Dry Creek Vineyard a memorable stop when visiting Sonoma wine country.

Today brings earnings from chip foundry giant TSM and Netflix, while data includes retail sales and jobless claims. Chips continue to whipsaw, but stocks are up so far this week. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0726) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kevin Hincks kicks off Thursday's trading session with a glimpse at the retail sales that show a still-resilient American consumer. On the other side of the Fed's dual mandate, he talks about the "low hire, low fire" jobs environment he sees offering some strength to the economic picture. TSMC's (TSM) gross margins added pressure to the stock and the global tech trade, which Kevin Hincks attributes to the selling action in the sector to start the day. He also notes GE Aerospace (GE) and its earnings. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Amanda Lai breaks down the latest retail sales data, explaining how lower fuel prices, e-commerce growth, and Amazon's (AMZN) early Prime Day influenced the results. She also discusses the growing divide between higher- and lower-income consumers and what upcoming earnings from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Macy's (M) could reveal about the retail landscape.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

CNBC Business News Update with Jessica Ettinger - Markets & Business News With Expert Analysis From Top Business Names. Visit CNBC.com For More. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, Greg, Scott, and Shar tell you what consumers are buying, what the new Chairman of the Fed had to say about rates, and celebrate a pickup in signed contracts last month. Filmed as part of the Mastery of Real Estate (MORE) Network, powered by Brown Harris Stevens. Subscribe to Crossing the Line https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crossing-the-line/id1715709313 Host: Greg Heym https://www.bhsusa.com/about-gregory-heym Market Report Data https://www.bhsusa.com/market-reports Sponsors: Scott Nadler | @loan.daddy CrossCountry Mortgage https://crosscountrymortgage.com/brooklyn-ny-5601/scott-nadler/ Shahriar Sedgh Sedgh & Zuckerman PLLC: shar@sznylaw.com The Everset https://theeverset.com/ Submit your "Crossing the Line" questions: CTL@bhsusa.com Brown Harris Stevens is one of the largest privately owned real estate brokerages in the country, with more than 40 offices across four states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Florida. https://bhsusa.com/

Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as Chair with key questions on how hawkish he'll be, how he describes working with Powell, and whether he'll discuss Fed reform, today's retail sales print and yesterday's strong 20-year auction, UK inflation surprising to the downside at 2.8%, and the UAE's longer-term plan to cut dependency on the Strait of Hormuz to zero through Gulf of Oman port expansion, new pipelines to the Red Sea, and expanded rail and road networks.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

AP correspondent Donna Warder reports on the latest retail sales numbers.

Retail sales grew by .9%, more than expected. What are people buying?

The Fed isn't seen changing rates tomorrow, but it's Kevin Warsh's first rodeo as chairman, which could mean drama. Housing data today follows yesterday's sharp oil-driven rally. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0130-0626) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Al Arabiya and Al Hadath exclusively report the text of the anticipated US-Iran agreement in case of its approval. A Pakistani source said that cautious optimism is the prevailing sentiment in the ongoing discussions regarding the planned agreement.However, another Pakistani source said the US and Iran's insistence on raising the bar for their demand regarding uranium and the Strait of Hormuz has led to a "crisis in negotiations." Crude on a firmer footing despite diplomatic efforts.Global equities set to end the week with gains, ahead of the UK/US extended weekend.FX broadly within Thursday's wide ranges; GBP unfazed by PSNB and retail sales, AUD weaker as banks shift tightening call.Fixed income higher, Gilts benefit from cooler-than-expected Retail Sales.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May), BoC SLOS (May), Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair with US President Trump to attend. Speakers include Fed's Waller. Credit Ratings: Scope Ratings on China, S&P on Norway, Moody's on Hungary, Portugal & UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating.When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it's not the equity market doing the hazing. It's the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors.From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening.Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed.The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on.Key Takeaways:The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly.AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms.S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%.The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment.The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average.Jump to:0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed?6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final ThoughtsConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Investors might be focused on any trade news coming out of the U.S. meeting with China, as well as any progress addressing the war. April retail sales could reflect rising prices. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0130-0426) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kevin Hincks continues to watch President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping in China and how he and the Big Tech executives he traveled with can strike business deals. In-line retail sales are something Kevin believes shows that the American consumer remains resilient in the face of sticky inflation. Kevin also notes the surge in tech stocks and how analysts are readjusting price targets in many names. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

AP correspondent Donna Warder has the latest numbers on retail sales.

Baby monitors have long promised parents the ability to see and hear their child from another room. But as connected health devices become more normalized in everyday life, from smartwatches to sleep trackers, parents are beginning to expect more than visibility. They want insight. For Owlet, that shift matters because its wearable monitors track critical infant health metrics like pulse rate and oxygen level, bringing hospital-grade technology into the home and turning baby monitoring into a more data-informed experience.As infant monitoring moves beyond seeing and hearing, how can technology help parents truly understand their baby's well-being, and how should that reassurance show up across the retail journey?In this episode of Retail Refined, host Melissa Gonzalez welcomes Elizabeth Teran and Jennifer Billington from Owlet Baby Care for a discussion on how infant health technology is reshaping the way parents discover, evaluate, and shop for baby care products. The conversation explores Owlet's FDA-cleared wearable monitoring technology, the role of physical retail in high-trust purchases, the importance of speed and availability for new parents, and how data, AI, and connected devices are reshaping expectations around early parenthood.Top insights from the talk…Why infant monitoring is moving beyond audio and video. Teran explains that Owlet's approach is built around “hearing, seeing, and knowing,” using a wearable sock to track pulse rate and oxygen levels in real time and alert parents if readings fall outside preset ranges.Why retail availability matters after the baby arrives. Billington notes that while 60% of Owlet customers buy before birth, 40% purchase after the baby is born, often following a rough night, illness, or health scare. That makes in-store availability, curbside pickup, same-day delivery, and omnichannel retail partnerships central to Owlet's strategy.How data can empower, not overwhelm, parents. Teran says the opportunity is not just to show parents more information, but to help them understand what the data means, why it matters, and what they can do with it. Owlet has monitored more than two million babies and is building subscription and telehealth experiences designed to add context to infant health data.Elizabeth Teran serves as Chief Parent Officer at Owlet Baby Care, where she leads product management, design, customer experience, and marketing with a focus on translating parent insights into products and experiences that build confidence and peace of mind. Since joining Owlet in 2020, she has held senior roles across product marketing, brand strategy, and executive marketing leadership, including Chief Marketing Officer and SVP of Marketing. Before Owlet, Teran spent nearly a decade at Skullcandy, where she led product marketing, consumer research, retail training, go-to-market strategy, and data-driven product positioning.Jennifer Billington serves as the Head of Retail at Owlet, where she leads revenue strategy and execution with a focus on sustainable, profitable growth. Over the past five years, she has held increasingly senior sales roles at Owlet, including Director of Retail Sales, Vice President of North America Sales, SVP of Sales-Americas, and Chief Revenue Officer, overseeing domestic and international sales strategy. She brings more than 18 years of sales and channel leadership experience from the Coca-Cola system, where she managed major retail accounts, built strategic partnerships, led high-performing teams, and drove revenue growth across convenience, mass, drug, value, and foodservice channels.

Markets are heating up as traders prepare for CPI inflation data, central bank commentary, retail sales, and the high-stakes Trump-Xi meeting. Here's what matters, what could move the markets, and what traders should be watching this week.Learn to Trade at www.TierOneTrading.comYour Trading Coach - Akil

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest retail sales data and what it reveals about consumer resilience despite rising energy costs. With gasoline prices surging, many businesses are questioning whether demand can hold and how long margin pressure may persist. Lauren also examines growing political tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve, including leadership transition uncertainty and what it could mean for future interest rate direction. As confirmation battles unfold, businesses are left navigating an increasingly unclear policy environment.

In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in?Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market.The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here.Key Takeaways:The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just reliefForward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the indexMargin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returnsConsumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flatTelecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified modelsBull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historicallyRyan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the yearJump to:0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026?56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and DisclosuresConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Kevin Hincks says it's important for investors to differentiate what he calls "noisy" headlines from the negotiations behind the scenes. As the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, he paints a picture on how he sees ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran continuing. For Tuesday's economic data, Kevin highlights retail sales as especially important. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Like any good season finale, I'm putting it all on the table.Episode 10 marks the END of our season all about the Impact of AI on The Toy Industry. In this week's episode we're revisiting everything we covered this season from the environmental and mental impact of AI usage, to it's organizational benefits and need for a human touch.Then, I'll be sharing the results from my survey on AI Usage in The Toy Industry. So if you're here for the chisme, start poppin' that popcorn now, and turn the volume up because I'm sharing every bit of juicy data from this industry wide survey.And then FINALLY the moment I've been waiting for all season. I'm introducing you to a tool that utilizes AI to help you find qualified toy stores where your product fits the demographic, the vibe, and the audience to thrive. This new AI sales tool is called The Toy Matchmaker and you don't need to know anything about AI or have a single AI subscription to use it.

Strong data - alongside growing hopes an end to the Iran war is in sight - boosting stocks...  Sara Eisen, David Faber, and Carl Quintanilla began the hour with fresh analysis of this morning's ADP Jobs & Retail Sales reports before getting predictions on what's next for stocks with longtime market veteran Jeremy Siegel - along with more on what's next in the war with Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman. Plus: Microsoft shares closing out their worst quarter since 2008... Is there more pain to come? Hear from one tech investor who says yes.    Elsewhere in the hour: Nike shares slumping post-results; Sara brought fresh reporting on the name and broke down the numbers with an analyst... And can't miss details on some of the day's biggest movers: from Intel to Restoration Hardware to Hasbro.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

SEGMENT 1: RETAIL SALES AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Guest: Liz Peek Strong retail sales signal consumer confidence as Trump takes office. Peek discusses holiday spending numbers, the stock market's performance, and economic expectations for the new administration. Conversation touches on inflation pressures, interest rate concerns, and whether the economy's momentum can continue under new policy directions.

SHOW SCHEDULE 1-20-20251907 GREENLANDSEGMENT 1: RETAIL SALES AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Guest: Liz Peek Strong retail sales signal consumer confidence as Trump takes office. Peek discusses holiday spending numbers, the stock market's performance, and economic expectations for the new administration. Conversation touches on inflation pressures, interest rate concerns, and whether the economy's momentum can continue under new policy directions.SEGMENT 2: MARKETS AND GREENLAND CONTROVERSY Guest: Liz Peek Peek analyzes market reactions to the incoming administration and addresses Trump's renewed interest in acquiring Greenland. Discussion covers the strategic importance of Greenland's resources and location, European responses to the proposal, and how this diplomatic imbroglio fits into broader economic and geopolitical considerations facing the new term.SEGMENT 3: EUROPEAN FRUSTRATION WITH TRUMP'S RETURN Guest: Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Berlin), Co-Host: Thaddeus McCotter Dempsey assesses European anxiety as Trump begins his second term. Discussion covers EU economic stagnation, Germany's struggling industrial base, and widespread frustration among European leaders unprepared for renewed American pressure on trade, defense spending, and NATO commitments. McCotter joins from Detroit offering domestic political perspective.SEGMENT 4: EU ECONOMY AND TRANSATLANTIC TENSIONS Guest: Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Berlin), Co-Host: Thaddeus McCotter Continued analysis of Europe's economic malaise and political uncertainty ahead of German elections. Dempsey examines how EU leadership plans to navigate Trump's transactional approach to alliances, concerns over tariffs and energy policy, and whether Europe can muster unified responses to American demands on defense and trade.SEGMENT 5: POWELL VS. TRUMP ON MONETARY POLICY Guest: Joseph Sternberg (London) Sternberg analyzes the brewing conflict between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump over interest rate policy. Discussion examines Trump's public criticism of Powell, the Fed's independence, inflation concerns, and how this tension between the White House and central bank could shape economic policy and market confidence.SEGMENT 6: STARMER'S LEADERSHIP FAILURES AND CHINA EMBASSY CONCERNS Guest: Joseph Sternberg (London) Sternberg critiques Prime Minister Keir Starmer's struggling leadership and lack of clear direction for Britain. Discussion turns to Starmer's belated scrutiny of China's massive new London embassy complex, raising security concerns about the sprawling diplomatic compound and questions about why earlier governments permitted its construction without adequate review.SEGMENT 7: IRAN EXECUTIONS AND TRUMP'S PROMISE OF HELP Guest: Jonathan Schanzer (Washington, DC) Schanzer reports on the surge of executions inside Iran as the regime cracks down on dissent. Discussion covers Trump's remarks signaling support for the Iranian people, the brutal nature of the regime's repression, recent execution numbers, and whether American policy shifts could aid those suffering under Tehran's authoritarian rule.SEGMENT 8: GAZA CEASEFIRE AND POSTWAR GOVERNANCE Guest: Jonathan Schanzer (Washington, DC) Schanzer examines the fragile Gaza ceasefire and critical questions about who will govern after the fighting ends. Discussion analyzes the proposed makeup of any postwar governing board, the challenges of reconstruction, Hamas's continued presence, and regional players jockeying for influence over Gaza's future political arrangements.SEGMENT 9: GREENLAND STRATEGY AND ARCTIC AMBITIONS Guest: Mary Kissel (Former Senior Adviser to Secretary Pompeo) Kissel offers insider perspective on Trump's renewed push for Greenland, drawing on her State Department experience. Discussion examines the strategic rationale behind the proposal, Arctic security concerns, Danish and European reactions, and whether this represents serious policy or negotiating leverage for broader geopolitical objectives.SEGMENT 10: GAZA DIPLOMACY AND INVITATIONS TO ADVERSARIES Guest: Mary Kissel Kissel analyzes the peculiar diplomatic landscape surrounding Gaza negotiations, including controversial outreach to bad actors like Putin. Discussion questions the wisdom of engaging hostile powers in Middle East peacemaking, the signals this sends to allies, and how the new administration might reshape these diplomatic approaches going forward.SEGMENT 11: JAPAN'S SNAP ELECTION UNDER PM TAKAICHI Guest: Lance Gatling (Tokyo), Co-Host: Thaddeus McCotter Gatling reports from Tokyo on Prime Minister Takaichi's decision to call snap elections. Discussion covers the political calculations behind this move, Takaichi's nationalist stance, implications for US-Japan relations under the new Trump administration, and how Japanese voters are responding to shifting domestic and regional dynamics.SEGMENT 12: CHINA'S GROWING THREAT TO JAPAN Guest: Lance Gatling (Tokyo), Co-Host: Thaddeus McCotter Gatling assesses the mounting Chinese military threat facing Japan, including naval provocations and airspace incursions. Discussion examines Japan's defense posture, increased military spending, the importance of the US-Japan alliance in deterring Beijing, and how Tokyo views the security landscape with Trump returning to the White House.SEGMENT 13: NATO'S DECLINE AND THE GREENLAND CRISIS Guest: Gregory Copley Copley argues the Greenland controversy reveals deeper fractures signaling NATO's erosion. Discussion examines how the alliance has weakened through neglect and diverging interests, European defensiveness over Arctic claims, and whether the transatlantic security architecture built after World War II can survive current political and strategic pressures.SEGMENT 14: EMERGING SUNNI OR ISLAMIC NATO IN ASIA Guest: Gregory Copley Copley explores the potential formation of a new security alliance among Sunni Muslim nations in Asia. Discussion covers the strategic drivers behind such a coalition, which countries might participate, how this Islamic NATO could reshape regional power dynamics, and implications for Western alliances and Middle Eastern stability.SEGMENT 15: GREAT POWERS VERSUS SMALL STATES IN STRATEGIC THINKING Guest: Gregory Copley Copley contrasts how great powers often act impulsively while smaller states analyze carefully before moving. Discussion examines the hubris of major nations shooting from the hip on foreign policy, the advantages smaller countries gain through meticulous strategic calculation, and lessons for American policymakers in an increasingly complex world.SEGMENT 16: THE CALMING POWER OF KINGSHIP Guest: Gregory Copley Copley offers praise for monarchical systems as stabilizing forces in nations facing discontent. Discussion examines how kingship provides continuity, national unity, and legitimacy that elected leaders often cannot muster, with examples of how constitutional monarchies successfully navigate political turbulence and maintain social cohesion during crises.