Podcasts about delinquency

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the relief rally following the US-China trade de-escalation continues, for equities at least. But worries continue about recession and inflation. Investors want higher risk premiums. And it seems China is in no hurry to resume buying from US sources.But first up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered similar but slightly lower results for both SMP and WMP that were achieved at last week's full auction, basically confirming the recent shifts, especially the up-shift for WMP.The April US CPI inflation rate came in at 2.3%, a touch lower than the 2.4% expected and which applied for March. That was largely due to fuel costs falling more sharply (-11.8%). The costs of food (+2.8%), rents (+4.0%) and transport (+2.5%) were all higher.Last week's Redbook tracking of US retail sales recorded a +5.8% rise from the same week a year ago. We will likely see this fade as the tariff-induced buying eases off now.The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped in April to its lowest level since October 2024. But the retreat wasn't quite as much as was expected.US household debt data updates were a mixed bag. Total household debt rose +$167 bln from the prior quarter to a record high of $18.2 tln in Q1-2025. Delinquency rates rose from the previous quarter, with 4.3% of outstanding debt now in some stage of delinquency.US importers of Chinese goods still face much higher costs. The net position after the tempest and pullback is 'worse' for inflation, and negative for trade. Struggle is all ahead for global trade.In India, CPI inflation fell to 3.2% in April, and that is its lowest rate since before the pandemic. Food prices were up only +1.8% within that. The current overall inflation rate is now well below their central bank's 4% mid-point target. If it stays there, a rate cut in India may be on the cards.In Germany, there was a sharp bounce-back in the ZEW sentiment survey tracking in May, putting the unusual drop in April behind it. The survey indicates growing optimism for the next six months, driven by the formation of a new federal government there, progress in resolving tariff disputes, and signs of stabilising inflation. Nearly all sectors reported improved sentiment in May.In Australia, updated data seems to indicate that Kiwis are losing the desire to visit there. That said there were 104,600 visits by Kiwis in March, -9.3% fewer than in March 2024 and almost -10% fewer than in March 2018 (a pre-pandemic equivalent). For the year to March 2025, we made 1.367 mln visits to Australia, little different (+1.4%) to the same year in 2024. It is a similar story for Aussies visiting New Zealand. In March 2025 it was -1.7% less than the same month a year earlier.Consumer sentiment in Australia has stayed weak in March, according to a widely-watched Westpac-MM survey.We should probably note that good weather and favourable growing conditions in almost all regions has boosted wheat production - and is pushing down prices. They are now back to levels they first achieved ten years ago and are almost -60% lower than their peak in 2022. For similar reasons, corn prices are falling now too.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.50%, up +4 bps so far today.There rate may go higher. A Reuters poll of bond investors shows them increasingly concerned about both a global recession, and rising inflation. That is, stagflation.The price of gold will start today at US$3243/oz, and up +US$20 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1.50 today at just over US$63.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.4 USc, up +90 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 53.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 67.9 and up a net +50 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,161 and back up +2.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

First-quarter bank earnings highlighted mixed results as some banks saw an uptick in originations and leasing volume, while credit performance largely improved.  Ally Financial's auto originations increased 4.1% year over year as lease originations were up 28.6% YoY. The bank's retail auto delinquencies declined 9 basis points (bps) YoY to 3.79%. Across the regional banks, Huntington Bank's auto originations rose 25% YoY, while U.S. Bank's indirect loan and lease originations were down 27.3% YoY. Fifth Third Bank, PNC Financial and Truist joined several auto lenders in reporting declines in delinquencies and credit losses in Q1. Meanwhile, new-vehicle affordability hit the best level in 45 months in March but auto tariffs are expected to lead to price increases and contribute to lower sales in the coming months.  Prolonged tariffs are also projected to contribute to a decline in auto asset-backed securitization volume and increased delinquencies across securitized auto loans. In this episode of “Weekly Wrap,” Auto Finance News Editor Amanda Harris and associate editor Aidan Bush discuss Q1 bank earnings and top trends across affordability and consumer health for the week ended April 18. 

In a rare treat since our return from podcasting hiatus, Boredwalk co-founder Meredith Erin sits in with Tess Menzies & Ansley Hutchinson from the content team to discuss the shockingly unconstitutional disregard of due process the new administration in the U.S. has been engaged in. Meredith breaks down what due process is, describes some of the recent incidents of the federal government infringing on civil liberties of visitors and immigrants here in the U.S. legally, and why that is a threat to every U.S. citizen. We'd be remiss if we just offered problems with no solutions, though! Meredith shares some really easy, low-effort ways to make your voice heard and put pressure on your elected representatives to fight back against this lawlessness. Our co-hosts then read and respond to some recent social media comments on Boredwalk's posts, dissecting what misinformation & disinformation actually looks like in practice. Things wrap up with Tess, Ansley, and Meredith trading personal anecdotes sparked by questions from our Delve Deck conversation card sets! They share opinions on restaurants whose popularity baffles them, hypocritical behaviors that annoy them most, and things that each of them considers to be an area of personal expertise. Tess and Ansley's are... surprising. We're so pleased to be spending time in your ear balls. Come commiserate & laugh at the hellscape with us! And if you'd like to have conversations as thrilling and hilarious as this one, head on over to Boredwalk.com to pick up your own Delve Decks! FOLLOW US: FACEBOOK ► facebook.com/boredwalktshirts INSTAGRAM ► instagram.com/boredwalk THREADS ► threads.com/boredwalktees YOUTUBE ► youtube.com/boredwalk.los.angeles BLUESKY ► bsky.app/profile/boredwalk.com TIKTOK ► tiktok.com/@boredwalk.lol

Delinquency rates are rising but is it time to panic? In this video, we break down the real story behind recent headlines and viral posts claiming homeowners are in trouble. In this episode we discuss what's currently happening the 2025 housing market while answering your mortgage and real estate questions LIVE!Article related to this post - https://www.housingwire.com/articles/no-homeowner-delinquency-rates-arent-elevated/ ✅ Ready to take the next step?Start your stress-free loan journey todayJoin Rate Watch – we'll watch rates for youEmail: info@theeducatedhomebuyer.comConnect with Us

Canadians are facing significant economic challenges, driven by high inflation and growing uncertainty about a potential recession. Despite the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates, prices remain stubbornly high, putting financial pressure on many households. The ongoing tariffs and trade wars are further complicating everyday life and impacting the broader economy. Meanwhile, the federal government's slowdown in immigration and a rise in asylum claims are reducing the number of non-permanent residents, which is having a direct effect on housing demand and the labor market. Ontario is at the forefront of this economic turmoil, with falling home prices, record-high listings, and a surge in mortgage delinquencies. As 60% of Canadians face mortgage renewals, many will see payment hikes of up to 30%, further straining family budgets. In this video, we break down these critical economic factors and explore what they mean for Canada's future.For more information, be sure to visit https://www.owlmortgage.ca/ & https://wealthbuilders.realpm.ca/

This Week in Real Estate (tWiRE) Episode 311 unpacks a wild week of housing headlines—from legal showdowns to market shakeups. We're covering everything agents, buyers, and investors need to know:

Welcome to the Real Estate Rundown! This week, Kala, Jason, and Eliot discuss the FHA's alarming "incentive payments" on past-due mortgages. Check us out on social media: Kala - https://linktr.ee/kalalaos Eliot - https://linktr.ee/eliottomaszewski/ Zoodealio - https://linktr.ee/zoodealio/ _________________________________ Check us out on Apple Podcasts & Spotify! Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ibuyer-experiment/id1510051846 Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/2e1M6C4x88OyNgIuTCZ0V8?si=51dc906935b64850

Captive lenders will remain aggressive in the auto space this year after tapping back into auto loans at the close of 2024, when delinquencies cooled. “Delinquency rates for captives have come down and they are improving,” Michael Brisson, director of economic research at Moody's Analytics, tells Auto Finance News in today's “Weekly Wrap” podcast.  Captives will likely maintain increased appetite in the auto market given that they can “increase incentives not just through cash on the hood but through inverted rates, which helps out OEMs in terms of moving product,” he adds. Banks and credit unions, however, are going to “remain in a wait-and-see mode” as delinquencies in the fourth quarter continued to inch up but at a slower pace than before, Brisson says. Lenders' “wait-and-see mode” reflects industrywide uncertainty following executive orders signed by President Donald Trump on Jan. 20. One signed order focused on eliminating federal EV subsidies could hamper automakers' and consumers' willingness to invest in eco-friendly vehicles this year. Another, which is focused on trade policy, highlights Trump's plan to impose 25% tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1.  Trump's hopes for added tariffs could fuel pricing instability by driving up vehicle values, adding to affordability woes and increasing automakers' production costs.  “The Trump administration's executive orders don't do anything right away, and there is nothing that was concrete put in place.” Brisson says. “However, in the minds of consumers, things have changed.” That said, there are bright spots in the market as Cox Automotive projects a year-over-year sales increase in nearly every market segment. Cox Auto projects: New-vehicle sales will increase 2.8% YoY to 16.3 million units at yearend 2025, the best year for new-vehicle sales since 2019; EV total market share will hit 10%, up from about 7.5% in 2024, making approximately one in every four vehicles sold or leased an EV in 2025; Full-year used-car sales will reach 20.1 million units, up 1.2% YoY; and CPO sales will decline 1.6% YoY to 2.5 million units in 2025. Listen to today's episode of the “Weekly Wrap,” as Auto Finance News Associate Editor Ashley Savage discusses the auto finance landscape for 2025 with Brisson. 

Join Michael Bull, CCIM as he interviews Lonnie Hendry with Trepp on the latest delinquency trends. Takeaways include interest rates, origination and transaction volume forecasts, plus strategies for borrowers and lenders.  Bull Realty - Customized Asset & Occupancy Solutions: https://www.bullrealty.com/ Commercial Agent Success Strategies - The ultimate commercial broker training resource: https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ Watch the video versions of our show on YouTube! https://www.youtube.com/c/Commercialrealestateshow Follow us at: @BullRealty https://twitter.com/bullrealty @CRE_show https://twitter.com/CRE_show  

Requiem.Based on a post by FinalStand, in 13 parts. Listen to the ► Podcast at Explicit Novels. Once more, our esteemed academic Captain, Dr. Pierre O'Rourke Jean-Georges, led us through a rather confused and unhappy post-game liturgy in honor of; well in support of racial unity, I guessed. It was really hard to tell with the way he would ramble off-point every few minutes. The Football Team was in chairs on the floor of the gym with the Cheer Squad and Student Government. The rest of the student body was squeezed into the bleachers; very cozy.The Special Investigator also spoke briefly to the assembly, asking for our help on the case. The school was also hiring a 'Racial Grievance Counselor' who was, surprise, surprise, Dr. Nubia Franklin Jean-Georges; our Principal's wife. I was kind of curious who was making the school system pony up the money for her services as well as precisely when the 'interview' process had taken place.‘I wonder if she's qualified,' Kaelyne whispered.‘I wonder where they are going to stick her,' Vicky mused.‘Oh, I imagine she is going to get 'stuck' alright,' Mikhail snickered beneath his hand. Oh yeah, she was statuesque, smart, Black and projected complete confidence; right up my youngest triplets' alley.‘Ow,' he play-protested after Kaelyne smacked him.‘I did that for Taliyah,' she declared.‘She'll appreciate that,' I promised.‘I know she will,' Kaelyne smiled at me. After that disastrous Monday, Taliyah had been making steady headway in gaining Kaelyne's forgiveness which showed both her character (it was the right thing to do) and smarts (fear of my Mom).‘So; Alexander, what kind of bathing suit should I wear tomorrow?' Vicky teased our eldest.‘One made out of edible body paint,' he turned and winked. ‘Big Bob is gone all weekend to some Sheriff's convention in Miami, Florida. He goes to it every year.' Alexander being sexy-nice to Vicky was Also a good sign for our upcoming weekend.A withering glance from the Coach stilled our conversation. It was bad enough we were 'disrespecting' Darius' shindig. Our team had gotten their asses handed to them tonight in a game they should have won even without our star Running Back. It was easy to see having his father face criminal charges and loss of employment had shaken up Rashaan.His first outing as Team Captain had been a disaster; and now he had to sit here and listen to the various tributes to the guy he'd failed to replace instead of going anywhere else and getting shit-faced drunk and laid. The prognosis for both were pretty grim too,; what with the law enforcement being extra vigilant and the Cheer Squad being surprisingly inattentive to the Football Team's needs; which he was also getting blamed for.Darius had not only provided his players with victories, he had provided them status and perks as the premier athletes at school with the heritage of multiple highly successful teams being handed to them. Everyone 'looked the other way' because they were on the Football Team. All the girls wanted to be with them. Their parties always had plenty of alcohol and weed. They got good grades with minimal, if any, studying. Life had been good.Rashaan was having a horrific time maintaining that legacy. Not only could he not supply for his team, he couldn't even keep his own house in order. He had gone from 'three' hot-ass bitches (running true to type, the BBCs still refused to believe Taliyah had left him for Mikhail a week ago but now she, Sultana Berry and Randi Leigh Upshaw were openly gone) to none.Sure, they could still get 2nd and 3rd tier 'skanks', but just seeing all that prime booty walking around and knowing it Should be theirs and wasn't really bothered those student-athletes. A further complication was that under Darius, he kept the prime cunt specifically regulated both coming and going. That way the boys didn't have to worry about condoms, pregnancies and STDs.He kept the players clean by keeping the mouths, asses and vaginas they were fucking clean. No player stuck his cock into an unauthorized hole because if you did, Darius would destroy you. The object was to fuck who you wished in a safe hunting ground. Rashaan couldn't keep that level of discipline among either the women, or his own teammates.Rashaan also couldn't keep the booze and weed freely flowing. Darius hadn't shared his drug pipeline and wasn't likely to. Rashaan wasn't even trusted with the names of the entities capable and willing to buy and distribute alcohol to the under 21 crowd, plus Sheriff Big Bob's deputies were on the lookout for such shenanigans; more than happy to slap the cuffs on anyone 'Contributing to the Delinquency of a Minor'.As a final blow, his dad was no longer Chief of Police. Sure, he was being promised that ruling would soon be reversed; but for Rashaan, it was yet another blow landing at an unfortunate time. His problems weren't mine, and I had more than enough of my own. He'd have to sink, or swim, on his own.We were released at 10:37 pm; far past the time for any of us to have any fun. The Cheer Squad angled for us as we left the bleachers with Taliyah looking particularly livid. A few football players were making a nuisance of themselves, but I sensed her troubles ran deeper.‘Hey, Betty Jo,' one of our linemen tried to separate out the pale-haired blonde, ‘let's head out and party.' Two more moved to put a wall between my brothers and her.‘I'm tired,' she complained.‘You'll feel better soon,' he promised.‘Without your help,' I grumbled. I wedged between the two, they put their hands on me and then Mikhail and Alexander drove fingers into each of their Solar Plexus. With them temporarily gasping for air, we put a perimeter around the other ladies while I put an arm around Betty Jo's waist.‘Boy,' the athlete hissed, ‘you best let go of this piece of ass.'Betty Jo's eyes flashed from him to me, caught between shame and hunger.‘I'm not a boy, your boy, or anyone, but my parent's boy,' I hardened. ‘I'd appreciate it you never demean Betty Jo like you just did either.'‘Is there a problem?' a White Deputy working his way through the crowd called out.‘This ain't over, Peckerwood,' the lineman snarled under his breath.‘Thanks for the warning, Dumbo,' I mocked him. He had big ears.‘It is Greg, Shithead,' he corrected me angrily.‘Separate; you two,' the Deputy demanded.‘Yes, officer,' I backed off. I had the girl which was the important thing.‘Vlad?' Brandy cuddled up to me as we left the auditorium.‘All's good,' I assured her. ‘Normal threats and insults. Nothing more.'‘Betty Jo; are you okay?' she turned her attention to the woman I was escorting along.‘Oh, I'm okay. Greg wanted to talk with me, but I'm not really interested in him anymore,' and then she smiled over at Alexander.‘He doesn't do it you for anymore?' Brandy teased.‘Who?' Betty Jo pursed her lips.‘Greg; the defensive tackle.'‘Oh him!' she seemed surprise. She was Alondra's cross-racial twin alright. ‘Yeah. He and the other guys just want to push and pump me; it feels so; boring really.'‘Not like Alexander?' Brandy led her along.‘Oh no!' she exulted. ‘Alexander makes me feel all tingly; and he doesn't call me bitch, or whore, or nothing like that,' she tacked on.The crowd was dissipating as we moved into the Parking Lot.Alexander was in the lead with Vicky and Alondra on either side should he need support. Mikhail was slightly detached off to my left, arm around Taliyah, deep in conversation with her. His normal cheerful carelessness was gone, replaced by a serious mein. Kaelyne was behind Alex, with the other cheerleaders spread out between us. At the rear of our clump, herding us along, was; Mom and Jewel; huh?They were chatting amiably, one adult to another, not a teenager to a mother. That worried me for reasons I couldn't pinpoint. A little tug from Brandy reminded me where I was suppose to be paying attention.‘Some of the girls are coming over tonight,' she murmured seductively.‘The only one I want to be with is you,' I frowned.A million mega-lumens-bright smile flashed across Brandy's face.‘Not bored with me?'‘How would that ever even be possible?' I gasped.More pure, unfiltered happiness from my Lady.‘You make me very happy, Vlad,' she snuggled in.‘Ditto, Princess,' I kissed the top of her head.‘Hey,' Betty Jo interrupted. ‘Are you anything like your brother?' (?? because, ya know, we were only identical triplets??)‘We are triplets, Betty Jo,' I instructed. ‘We are identical; in all physical regards.'‘Does that mean your dick is just as big?' she asked with innocent intent.‘Yes,' Brandy confirmed. ‘Yes, it is.'‘Oh; nice,' she smiled at Brandy.‘Betty Jo, why don't we get your stuff and head out?' Brandy suggested. Betty Jo left my side with that smile still on her lips. ‘Will I see you tonight?' Brandy directed my way.‘I'll try,' I grinned.‘Okay,' she winked then off she went to round up the others. Mikhail brushed passed me, going the other way; toward Mom.‘I'll be hanging out with Taliyah tonight, Mom,' he addressed our maternal unit.‘Is there a problem?' she studied him. Jewel was silently observant.‘I'm eighteen, tomorrow isn't a school day and I don't have any chores to do I'm aware of,' he ticked off his salient points.‘Why don't you say 'hello' to Ms. Lafontanté?' Mom was falsely polite.‘Hey, Jewel,' his words were brutally sparse of emotion.‘Hey, Mikhail,' she was somewhat amused.‘Hey, Vlad,' she was a tad more polite toward me.‘Hello, Jewel,' I projected much more civility than my brother. If Mom found it necessary to chat with Jewel, it was worth all our time to be more polite and Mikhail should have known better.‘Jewel, please give me a moment with my youngest,' Mom separated from that imposing young lady and walked five steps away with Mikhail.‘I'm glad we didn't have a misunderstanding last night,' I proffered.‘Why?' Jewel tilted her head and appeared to dissect my every word and move.‘Violence without purpose is beyond wasteful; it is stupid and the product of nonadaptive minds,' I stated.‘I don't recognize the quote,' she smiled after a moment.‘It is a Vladimir original,' I smiled back.‘I think I could have taken you,' she added.I had to think over that for a few seconds myself.‘Is that what you were talking to Mom about; asking to come over to our house and spar?'‘Perhaps; that and a few other things,' she allowed.Mom was coming back. Mikhail was going off with Taliyah. Why? I didn't know.‘Night Ms. Lafontanté,' Mom nodded.‘Good night, Ms. Samsonov. Night Vlad.'‘Night Jewel and; you would have lost,' I affirmed as I turned to leave.There was no reply. Before we split up; I was going back home with Alexander; she was hanging around until Dad finished up and dismissed the other Deputies; Mom gave me a shoulder 'bump'.‘Nice one,' she grinned up at me.‘Huh?'‘With Jewel.'‘She thought she could take me with a rattan practice weapon and I thought to dissuade her of that delusion,' I explained. It was the truth after all.‘Girls like Jewel; don't take 'no', or 'you can't do that' for an answer, Vlad,' she enlightened me.‘Even when it is the truth?'‘Especially if it is the truth,' she smirked. ‘Girls like Jewel want to change the World, not accept anyone's assignment for them in it.'‘Well; she is Mikhail's problem, not mine. He's hot for her. I'm perfectly happy with Brandy.'If only that was the way the World worked;Cheer Squad (12 Girls: 4 Black, 6 White and 2 Mixed)The Black girls were;·         Sultana Berry (Very Light fawn complexion).·         Vantrice Kirby (Very Dark umber complexion), (hair dyed florescent red-black striped, shoulder-length hair).·         Alondra Lamb (Very Light tawny complexion).·         Taliyah Malik; the Co-Captain.The White girls were;·         Brandy Crystal Carson is Co-Captain.·         Amber Lee Huffington, (Brunette hair).·         Mia Ryker, (blonde hair).·         Misty Dawn Sizemore, (Russet hair).·         Betty Jo Starling, (Blonde hair).·         Randi Leigh Upshaw, (Brunette hair).The mixed girls were;·         Le 'Pearl' Yates; (Raven-haired, half-Vietnamese/half-Black·         Noémie Lucie Desdunes (Creole) Zulu Princess Posse·         Jewel 'C. S.' Lafontanté·         Dana Owens·         Régine Hunt·         Maxine Shaw·         Shayla Karen White·         Sunny Cobb·         Lana Michelle Moore (the token white girl)Saturday: The Flashpoint.Note:  currently, Vlad is dating Brandy Crystal Carson {the Sheriff's daughter} and Mikhail is dating Taliyah Malik {the Madam Mayor's daughter} while Alexander remains somewhat unattached.)I wasn't able to make it to the Carson household Friday night, though I did learn about the reason Mikhail did: Thursday night the Malik family had begun to implode. Mamma Malik had gone to a separate bedroom; and locked the door. Papa Malik hadn't taken that well, deciding to bury himself in alcohol as an appropriate response. That had been Taliyah's Friday morning. A series of late-afternoon blistering communication exchanges with her parents hadn't helped much.I resolved to make it up to Brandy by going over early ~as in 7:00 a.m. on a Saturday morning, early; and waking her with kisses. She'd told me the passkey for the home's security system (and 'yes', it had been changed after she dumped Darius for me, just in case).I got there; and the Living Room looked like it needed more than a little cleaning. Pizza boxes and soda cans were strewn about the place. Apparently, Brandy and company hadn't gone straight to bed last night..From what I'd already been told, she had Taliyah (Malik), Noémie Lucie Desdunes, Amber Lee Huffington, Alondra Lamb, Misty Dawn Sizemore and Betty Jo Sterling already here. The other five members of the Cheer Squad would be arriving later this morning and all were planning on spending tonight (Saturday night).Noémie Lucie, Amber Lee and Misty Dawn were strong supporters of the Brandy and Taliyah co-captaincy of the Cheer Squad, so that explained their presence. Alondra and Betty Jo were here out of worry the members of the Football Team might try to 'kidnap' them, once they were off school grounds: so safety measures had been taken.With Robert 'Big Bob' Carson, the County Sheriff, away for the weekend at a Law Enforcement convention in Miami, Florida, he had wisely deposited at least one Samsonov guarding his northwestern Arkansas home last night. Surprisingly, Mikhail had sensed Taliyah's soul-hurt about the situation and wanted to be there for her. He'd put his burgeoning playboy tendencies aside when she really need him. His transformation last night had surprised both me and, to some degree, my Mom, Gayle Fonteneau Samsonov.No one was awake in the house yet. From the rich aroma wafting from the Kitchen, I could tell the automatic coffeemaker had already prepared a full pot and was keeping it warm. I dropped my book bag; sans books, but with a change of clothes, two swimsuits and a few other 'gifts from Mom'; by the sofa first, then began transferring plates and glasses from the Living Room to the dishwasher in the Kitchen. I thought I heard someone out on the front porch.No one knocked, so I finished the trip to the kitchen. I was on the way back when I was pretty sure I heard someone trying to get in; with no luck. You had to be a pretty stupid thief to try and break into the County's chief Law Dog's domicile, even if he was currently out of town. Then there were the four cars and two electric-blue with yellow lightning bolts KTM 690 Enduro R's motorbikes (mine and Mikhail's) in the driveway and front lawn for Pete's sake. It wasn't like the house looked deserted.Seeking the Carsons.Someone rang the doorbell. I wasn't sure how to take that. A quick double-check revealed the door had a spy hole and there was a security screen further into the room. I made use of the spy hole since it was closer. The object on the other side was the best disguised house burglar I'd ever seen, or heard about. I opened up the door, a sappy smile plastered to my slightly flushed face. At the last second I thought to shove my hard-on to the side in a doomed attempt to make it less obvious.‘Hello, how may I help you?' I greeted the gorgeous, mature, platinum-blonde feminine bombshell standing before me.‘Do the Carson's still live here?' she appeared distressed.‘Oh, yes Ma'am,' I bobbled my head. ‘Hi. I'm Vladimir Samsonov. The owner is out right now and I'm here for a party being thrown by his daughter, my girlfriend, Brandy.'Her face transformed from confusion and worry to secret amusement.‘It is a pleasure to meet you, Vladimir,' she put forth her hand. I gladly took this elegant, graciously offered extension of her luscious form. I ended up kissing her knuckles instead of shaking it as I understood that was the Southern Gentlemanly thing to do to a lady. Her eyes twinkled as she added, ‘I'm Jodi May Memphis Carson; Brandy's my daughter.'My heart caught in my throat. From what little I knew, a few months back, Brandy's Mom had run off with the previous Senior Deputy; Big Bob's #2 Man; a Black 'gentleman'; and Big Bob was still pissed about it. I'd never broached the subject with Brandy.So, how upset was Big Bob? Well, I hadn't recognized his gorgeous wife because Big Bob had taken all pictures of her down around the place and Brandy never talked about her. That was a pity because she was an absolute beauty. Her name and history would definitely explain the luggage she had with her too.No car was in evidence which suggested she'd arrived via hitchhiking, or taxi. There was no one outside expecting money, or checking to see if she was okay;‘Please,' I stepped aside. ‘Come on in. Don't worry about your luggage. I'll get it.'‘Thank you,' she stepped inside. ‘That is very gentlemanly of you.' Points for me!With two over-stuffed dress bags, two large suitcases and a roll-on, I definitely felt overburdened, and I was certainly getting my weight training in for this morning, but following Mrs. Carson into the house made all but one of my physical aches go away. I was certain she was talking to me.What she actually said; I had no idea. She had on this contour-hugging, pale lavender skirt and a white, nearly-transparent imitation Peasant blouse with a black mesh bra underneath. This was above unadorned, creamy-tanned calves and white, open-toed heels (4 inches maybe?). Her finger- and toe-nails were a dazzling, pale pink to accent the ensemble.With the way her hips rolled when she walked, each step made her firm ass bounce just a tad which also just happened to accentuate the luscious lines of those exquisite calves and thighs (what I could see of them). Her hair boiled down to her mid-back like a wild torrent of molten gold. I swear to God, I had this unnatural impulse to push her over the back of the sofa and fuck the ever-living soul out of her.‘Vladimir? Vlad?' Jodi May addressed me. Apparently she'd been asking me one, or more, questions while I had been daydreaming. She'd stopped and twisted at the hip so she could look at me. Her salacious twist of the lips and carnivorous eyes told me she knew exactly why I hadn't answered her and where my mind had wandered off to.‘I; I apologize, Mrs. Carson.'‘Call me Jodi May,' she purred.‘Wha-ha, Yes Ma'am!' I nodded vigorously.‘I was asking I thought Brandy was dating Darius Pope. What happened to him?'Ice flushed thru my veins and my brain re-engaged. She'd known about Brandy and Darius; to some degree anyway; and she'd run off with a Big Black Cock-Monster herself. As a mature woman, she was a 10+, but as a Mother, in my book, she wasn't rating so high all of a sudden.‘So you were aware Darius Pope treated your daughter like a cum dumpster?' my countenance hardened. ‘She was handed about the team for all of them to use?'I could see it in her eyes; the comprehension; the denial; the creation of some fantasy which allowed her to carry on with the illusion she'd done no wrong.‘All White men think that way,' she settled on an imperious frown. ‘Darius loves my daughter.'‘And he's got the copious amount of humiliating footage to prove me right too,' I glared. ‘Or would have had if my family not intervened. Now Brandy has someone who truly loves her and wants to protect her from predators who would treat her as nothing more than three nameless orifices, a smoking hot body and a pretty face.'‘As it currently stands, it turns out Darius pissed off one too many folks and somebody decided to beat the ever-living crap out of him and six of his boys; all at the same time. Darius ended up crippled, maybe for life. He is currently hospitalized, undergoing reconstructive surgery on both his knees; in Little Rock. That doesn't matter because by the time Darius got his, I'd already convinced Brandy she was better off with me and she's stuck with me ever since,' I concluded.‘Poor Darius,' Memphis grew all concerned, nostalgic and misty-eyed. Yep, Darius had fucked Brandy's Mom as well. A quick information rewind had me recalling this convention of Big Bob's was a 'yearly thing', making the return of his runaway wife to his stoop rather conveniently timed.‘Where do I put your bags?'That brought her back to the here-and-now and looking at me, not through me.‘I imagine the Master Suite might be a tad inappropriate,' I stated factually.‘Young man,' she studied me, ‘this is still my house and I'll hang my clothes were I wish.'‘Absolutely, Mrs. Carson,' I nodded. ‘It is just placing them in the Master Bedroom comes with a complementary call to your husband; in Miami; while doing so in the Guest Room, the one at the other end of the house (because this house had Three), comes with some forbearance. By all means; decide away. After all; it is your house.'‘How do you think Brandy will feel about you threating her Mamma this way?' she pouted remarkably like her daughter.‘She won't give a damn,' I gave back nothing.‘My daughter and I had a better understanding of; things,' she turned all hurt and aggrieved. 'Things' like Mamma's infidelity and running off with a Black stud; because Brandy was lying to her father about getting some of her own at school.‘Things a White boy wouldn't understand,' she dug in her claws.‘Possibly,' I shrugged. Her shit was getting heavy. ‘I'd appreciate it if you would make your decision now. I was planning on cleaning up down here before waking Brandy with a few 'good morning' kisses. I can top that off with the knowledge you are here as well.'‘Put my things in the; far; Guest Room,' she motioned in the proper direction with a head toss. ‘I'll wake my daughter. I'm sure she has missed me.'‘Good choice,' I nodded. ‘Here is a piece of unsolicited advice. Your family hasn't picked up an automotive fetish in your absence; your daughter has friends over for the weekend, so making a commotion might by; unfortunate.'My information perplexed her.‘She is probably alone,' Mamma Carson hazarded.‘Unlikely. Taliyah was pretty upset last night so I'm willing to bet they crashed out with my brother; in the Master Suite while the five others are in the Game Room making use of the three sofas, sleeping bags and bear skin rug,' I hypothesized right back.‘Brother?' she worked out from all that information.‘Please come along with me while I explain,' and off I went. Reluctantly, the delinquent Mamma followed. Mind you, the far Guest Room was hardly a hardship being 12'x18' with a queen-sized canopy bed, walk-in closet and 72' wall-mounted TV. The counter-top space was minimal and the bathroom was down the hall, but since this wasn't the sleep-occupancy part of the dwelling, it was pretty much hers alone.‘As I said 'I'm Vladimir Samsonov'. My Mom and Dad are Gayle and Nicolay Samsonov. He is the new Senior Deputy and has over two decades of experience with the Alaska Highway Patrol and a legacy of law enforcement going back hundreds of years.'‘Of greater importance to you, no doubt, is that my Mom is Gayle Fonteneau Samsonov, heir to the Fonteneau fortune and estate; which is what brought us to town; my Great-Aunt Matilda's death and her Willing us the whole deal,' I gave Jodi May Memphis the 4-1-1.‘Oh,' she pursed her lips. ‘How is the 'town' handling this?'‘What?'‘The return of Gayle Fonteneau?' she inquired. She was in the closet, hanging up what she needed to while I was in the room, ass resting on the bed.‘Why do you think they would be upset?'‘Let's just say Gayle and her crazy brother didn't leave Kingston on the best of terms,' she evaded.‘I already know about my Mom's rape and the town's denial. I know my Uncle Theo went into Kingston, found four of those bastards and beat them so badly none ever fully recovered. I know the Mayor and Great-Aunt Matilda struck a bargain so that Uncle Theo stayed out of jail. I know the Mayor has passed-on, as has my Great-Aunt. I know my Mother hasn't forgotten, or forgiven, a damn thing.'‘I'm sure Mayor Fox and Chief Quinterre are less than impressed,' she smiled at me. She knew the score. This was BBC Country.‘Chief Quinterre is no longer Chief. He lost his job last Thursday night; for molesting my Mom, having one of his buddies molest your daughter, and being caught at it by an Arkansas State Investigator. My Mom is supporting Mayor Fox's bid for the State Senate seat while Chinedu Malik is in the dog house for his philandering ways.'‘That's; something,' she muttered.‘Oh, and the previous High School Principal is no more. He attempted to put his hands on my Mother, so she put him in Intensive Care; including ripping his dick off,' I kept chatting. By the flashing of Memphis' big baby blues; that was another BBC she'd be missing. Sadly, I was no longer surprised.‘The new guy; well, you'd have to meet him to believe him. He's a treat.'‘How so?'‘How to describe him; He's a college-marinated, proudly bi-sexual, agnostic, married-to-a-freaking-Goddess, beefy, Black Canadian-Haitian-American Fruit Loop.'‘Huh?'‘I stand by my assessment,' I grinned. ‘Let me go get Brandy,' I headed for the door.‘Vladimir, Vlad, ah; is Brandy; okay?' Jodi May worried.‘I do my utmost to make her happy; and I; well, I'll let you talk with her and decide for yourself,' and then I left.I worried about what I was going to say when I found Brandy. As I had surmised, she was upstairs, in the Master Suite, on her Daddy's bed,

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture As the fiat currency breaks down stores will up prices as the stock runs out. Credit card debt continues to rise, this is destroying the people in this country. Debt levels are reaching a point of no return. Delinquency rates on CBMS spiked. BRICS are trapped, Trump looking for a Crypto Czar. The [DS] just showed the people their true colors. They lie to the people, the do the opposite of what they promised they weren't going to do. Joe Biden just exposed the DOJ saying they selectively targeted his son. So does this mean that the DOJ is corrupt. This is why the patriots never charged anyone, because Biden and the [DS] would have pardoned them all. Soon, justice is coming.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/1863266679280504973  prices will start to shoot up to $1.20 “They're gonna start incorporating all these all over. Yeah, so it's pretty crazy. I'll come back later on in the day and you'll see this go up and down in price. You'll see it go as low as like 89 cents, which is pretty crazy” Welcome to dystopia https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1863588179095228570   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1863365027010359437   loan debt. The highest average federal student loan balance per borrower is in Washington, D.C. at $54,795. This is followed by Maryland, Georgia, and Virginia at $43,692, $42,026, and $40,137, respectively. How is this debt going to be paid off? https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1863291580662067623  FASTER pace than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. This puts the office CMBS delinquency rate on track to exceed a record of 10.7% seen in 2012. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate has risen from 4.6% to 6.4% over the last 12 months, the highest since 2020. The commercial real estate crisis is accelerating.   https://twitter.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1863574285408723239   returned 57%, almost 3 times less than the Magnificent 7. As a result, Magnificent 7 stocks now reflect a near-record 31% of the S&P 500. To put this into perspective, the Magnificent 7's market cap is ~$16 trillion, more than Germany, Canada, the UK, and France's stock markets COMBINED. Truly mind-blowing numbers. Trump and BRICS: Breaking China's Bank and Making Xi Lose Face Xi Jinping wants to bypass the U.S. dollar in international trade, but President Trump doesn't want him to—and Trump will get his way. Xi's first choice is for the world to adopt the Chinese yuan as a trade and reserve currency. Although officially recognized as an international currency and included in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Special Drawing Rights basket, the yuan has failed to gain widespread adoption for trade or as a reserve currency. This is true even among BRICS partners and heavily indebted countries like Cambodia. Currently, the yuan accounts for only 2.3% of global foreign currency reserves and 3% of all trade settlements. Many articles feature headlines suggesting that the yuan accounts for 26% of global trade. However, this figure actually refers to Chinese trade, not global trade. A significant portion of this trade is with Russia, a country barred from using U.S. dollars. Another widely cited statistic is that the yuan makes up 4.74% of “global transactions,” but this figure does not reflect trade settlement exclusively. Instead, it represents a mix of various uses, not just trade. Overall, the yuan's role in global trade remains modest, primarily limited to transactions between Russia and China.

Episode: 00243 Released on December 2, 2024 Description: In the debut episode of the Research Remix series, Jason Elder and Jamie Roush delve into the intersection of evidence-based policing and the role of analysts. Jamie introduces the concept of "Research Receptivity" by examining groundbreaking studies from Dr. Cody Taleb on police engagement with research in 2012 and 2017. The duo discusses the importance of analysts as conduits for integrating research findings into organizational practices, barriers to adoption, and actionable strategies for fostering a research-informed culture within law enforcement. Listeners will gain insights into how education, organizational roles, and accessibility to research can influence evidence-based decision-making. Whether you're a patrol officer, supervisor, or analyst, this episode offers practical takeaways for leveraging research to improve outcomes. Tune in for thoughtful discussion and resources to bring back to your agency. [Note:  Description produced by ChatGPT.] Get to know more about Jamie by listening to his episode on Analyst Talk With Jason Elder: https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/atwje-jamie-roush-the-aha-moment-analyst/ CHALLENGE: There are Easter eggs in one of the tables of the Excel chapter that Jason wrote for the IACA textbook. First-person to email us at leapodcasts@gmail.com about what the Easter eggs are will receive a $75 gift card from us. Happy hunting! *** Episode 6 of Cocktails & Crime Analysis - IACA Conference Preview - Presenters Edition https://youtu.be/FS6qqCQfcJI  *** Name Drops: Related Links: Definition of Evidence-Based Policing https://www.policinginstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Sherman-1998-Evidence-Based-Policing.pdf Receptivity to Research https://americansebp.org/police_receptivity_to_research.php 2012 Study: "Receptivity to Research in Policing" Authors: Cynthia Lum, Christopher S. Koper, Cody W. Telep, and Julie Grieco Published in Justice Research and Policy, Volume 14, Issue 1, 2012 Access the study here 2017 Study: "Police Officer Receptivity to Research and Evidence-Based Policing: Examining Variability Within and Across Agencies" Author: Cody W. Telep Published in Crime & Delinquency, Volume 63, Issue 8, 2017 Access the study here Open Secrets with Jan Mondale https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/open-secrets-hidden-resources-and-timeless-techniques/ Association(s) Mentioned: Vendor(s) Mentioned:  Contact:  jamielroush@gmail.com,  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamie-roush-5b399967/  Transcript: https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/afv8krpmady7vkgk/ResearchRemixEp01_Transcripts.pdf  Podcast Writer:  Podcast Researcher:  Theme Song: Written and Recorded by The Rough & Tumble. Find more of their music at www.theroughandtumble.com. Logo: Designed by Kyle McMullen. Please visit www.moderntype.com for any printable business forms and planners.  Podcast Email: leapodcasts@gmail.com   Podcast Webpage: www.leapodcasts.com   Podcast Twitter: @leapodcasts

Our panel of analysts discusses the health of the US consumer through the lens of spending, credit use and home ownership. ----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, Morgan Stanley's co-head of Securitized Product Strategy, and today we're going to take a look at the state of the US consumer from several different perspectives.Recent economic data suggests that the US economy is strong, and that inflation is on a downward trend. Yet, some of the underlying performance data is a little bit weaker. To understand what's happening, I'm joined by my colleagues Arunima Sinha and Heather Berger from the Global and US Economics teams.It's Thursday, November 7th, at 10am in New York.Now, the macro data on the consumer has looked pretty strong. Arunima, can you give a little bit more detail here? And specifically, how has consumer spending in the US been trending relative to where it was last year?Arunima Sinha: So, a good place to start, Jim, would be just to see where consumption spending was last year. And there it ended on a strong note. And in the first three-quarters of 2023, the average quarterly analyzed growth for consumption was just under 3 per cent. And that's where we are this year. We've seen solid growth rates in all three quarters this year, with the third quarter at 3.7 per cent. A particularly interesting aspect has been that the spending on goods has actually accelerated this year, with the third [quarter] number at a blistering 6.0 per cent on a quarterly basis.We have chalked this down to labor income growth remaining robust; and we did an analysis which showed that past growth in labor income boosts real consumption spending. Over this year, labor compensation has been growing strongly. So over 6 per cent in the first quarter and about 3.5 per cent in quarters two and three.And so, we continue to expect that that solid labor income growth is going to continue to boost real consumption spending.James Egan: All right. So, if I'm hearing you correctly – good spending, holding up; services, holding up. What about discretionary versus non-discretionary spend?Arunima Sinha: That's a great question, Jim, especially because discretionary spending is 70 per cent of all nominal personal consumption spending in the US. So just for context, what does discretionary include? It's going to be all the spending on durable goods, some non-durables, and then non-essential services such as health and transport, financial services, etc. And what we also saw – that a larger share of labor income is now being spent on discretionary items relative to the pre-COVID phase.So where are growth rates running? Discretionary spending is running strong on both a nominal and a real basis. So, on a nominal basis, we have about 5.5 to 6 per cent year on year, over this year, and over 3 per cent on a real basis. And these are largely in line with pre-COVID rates, if a little bit stronger now.For non-discretionary spending – that's the spending on food at home, and clothing, energy, and housing services – nominal spending has been decent. So, 4 per cent year on year on the first three quarters this year, and real spending has been a little bit less than the pre-COVID rate. So, between 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent. And so, this suggests what we expected to see, which is there's likely greater price sensitivity among consumers for these non-discretionary categories.What do we see going forward? We think that those increases in labor income are going to continue to provide boosts to discretionary spending. And one of the interesting aspects that we found was that lending standards seem to matter for discretionary spending. So, there's been some slowing down and the tightening of lending standards – and that could provide a further tailwind to discretionary spending.James Egan: Alright, that all sounds pretty positive and makes sense as to why we're getting so many questions about economic data that looks very healthy from a consumer perspective. But then, Heather. Other consumer data is showing a little bit more weakness. Arunima just mentioned credit standards. What are we seeing from the performance perspective on the consumer credit side?Heather Berger: Well, as you mentioned, the consumer credit data has shown more weakness, as more consumers are missing payments on their loans. We initially saw delinquency rates start to pick up in loans concentrated towards consumers with lower credit scores, such as subprime auto loans and unsecured personal loans, as those consumers were more affected early on by high inflation and then rising rates.Delinquency rates for those lower credit score loans are near the highest we have on record in some cases. In the past year, though, we have also seen that delinquency rates have picked up in loans aimed at consumers with higher credit scores, such as credit cards and prime auto loans. The weakness in these is not as extreme as in subprime, but the delinquency rates of the loans taken out recently is still relatively high historically. James Egan: So, it sounds like what you are describing is that there are pockets of consumers that are feeling more weakness than others.Heather Berger: Yes, exactly. And so, on the prime consumer side, even if these consumers have higher credit scores or higher incomes, if they took out loans recently, they likely did so at higher rates, and they're really feeling the pressures of higher debt service costs.We can also see some of the bifurcation between low income and high-income consumers. In some of the more detailed economic data, we have a breakdown of 2023 spending by income group, which is a bit outdated but still useful to see the narrative – and what it shows is that in 2023 higher income consumers made up near the largest share of discretionary spending as they have historically. For lower income consumers, their spending has shifted more towards essentials, with shelter increasing the most as a share of their spending from the prior year.Now, Jim, we really think that the housing backdrop has played a role here, so can you explain a bit more of what's going on there?James Egan: Yes, now my co-head of Securitized Product Strategy, Jay Bacow, and I have been on this podcast a few times talking about the role that the housing market is playing in the economy right now. We've really talked about the lock in effect. And when we're thinking about the role that housing plays in the consumer specifically, we're talking about lower income households, more discretionary spending, shelter increasing that's not happening at the higher end, and we think that's the lock in effect.A majority of homeowners were able to get low fixed rate mortgages for 30 years with 3 or 4 per cent mortgage rates. The effective mortgage rate would be on the outstanding market right now is, average is 4 per cent. Prevailing rates are north of 6 per cent right now. So that has helped that higher end consumer who is more likely to be a homeowner – 65 per cent of the US households are homeowners – maintain that lower level.But I don't want to gloss over that entirely. Other costs of homeownership are increasing. For instance, property taxes and insurance costs are up. Homeowners have realized swelling home equity amounts amid record home price growth in recent years; perhaps giving them more confidence to spend, but that equity hasn't exactly been easy to access.Now, second lean and HELOC balances have been increasing; but the amount of equity that's being withdrawn falls well shy of previous highs, which were set back in 2009. And that's despite the fact that the overall equity in the housing market is $20 trillion larger today than it was back then. While the equity itself should provide a buffer for homeowning consumers from ultimately defaulting, these dynamics could be resulting in some of the short-term delinquency increases that we think we're seeing in products like Prime Auto, for example.But Arunima, can you tie a bow on this for us? What does all of this mean for the consumer moving forward?Arunima Sinha: Moving forward Jim, we really just see a solid consumer. So, for the end of this year, our forecast is real consumption spending growing at 2.6 per cent; at the end of next year at over 2 per cent. And that really is tied to our view on the labor market – that it's going to continue to decelerate, but not in any sudden ways.So that's it. We are seeing a strong consumer, and we are going to be watching for pockets of weakness.James Egan: All right. Arunima, Heather, thanks for taking the time to talk.Arunima Sinha: Thanks so much for having me on, Jim.Heather Berger: Great talking to you both.James Egan: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Welcome to your Daily Detroit! This episode kicks off with a lively discussion on Detroit's social media clapback against Equanimeous St. Brown's comments about the city, highlighting the spirited defense of the Motor City. The conversation shifts to the financial troubles of Detroit's Riverfront Towers, now facing challenges despite high occupancy rates. Background reading: https://www.freep.com/story/money/business/michigan/2024/10/08/riverfront-towers-detroit-delinquency-morningstar/75568131007/ Next, we tackle the electric vehicle (EV) debate in Michigan, sparked by a US Senate candidate who is against EV factory and battery plant construction. That lines up with a poll that shows almost half of Michiganders don't want to compete for EV business. With EV sales on the rise and younger generations embracing the technology, we discuss the importance of Michigan staying competitive in the EV manufacturing landscape. Even if you don't like EVs, shouldn't we make them for those that do? Shouldn't Michigan stay the center of the auto industry? Poll source: https://michauto.org/politicization-of-evs-existential-threat/ Also, that poll reveals hesitance among non-college-educated voters to pursue further education.  To wrap up, they share a fun experience visiting the "Tyrannosaurus: Meet the Family" exhibit at the Michigan Science Center, a must-see for dinosaur enthusiasts of all ages. Get tickets: https://www.mi-sci.org/meet-the-family-tyrannosaurus/ Follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to shows. And thanks to our sustaining members on Patreon. 

This video essay discusses the Delinquency in a Birth Cohort study(ies) which looked into the causes of recidivism. This essay looks to understand why the causes of recidivism are so important to understand, how that understanding helps us to understand crime as a whole, and why the study(ies) show that our fundamental understanding of crime is flawed. And how does that flaw lead to increased crime. Recommended shows: Some More News: https://www.youtube.com/@UCvlj0IzjSnNoduQF0l3VGng Skip Intro: https://www.youtube.com/@UCKUm503onGg3NatpBtTWHkQ Münecat: https://www.youtube.com/munecat HBomberguy: https://www.youtube.com/@UClt01z1wHHT7c5lKcU8pxRQ Zoe Bee: https://www.youtube.com/@UCecF2icZlEIJ__9XS6woPGw Folding Ideas: https://www.youtube.com/@@UCyNtlmLB73-7gtlBz00XOQQ Also forgot to mention: Second Thought: https://www.youtube.com/@UCJm2TgUqtK1_NLBrjNQ1P-w Innuendo Studios: https://www.youtube.com/@UC5fdssPqmmGhkhsJi4VcckA Support The Shakedown at: https://www.patreon.com/TheShakedown More about The Shakedown at: https://shakedown.show Find Shakedown merch and support us at: https://wayword.press The Shakedown on IG, Threads, FB, BlueSky, or TikTok: @gettheshakedown Rainforest on IG: @lorax4life References for this video: Delinquency in a Birth Cohort Wolfgang, Marvin E. https://search.worldcat.org/title/1200289388 THE COMING OF THE SUPER — PREDATORS, John DiLulio https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/magazine/1558817/the-coming-of-the-super-predators/ What Really Lowers Crime - Nevada Department of Sentencing Policy https://sentencing.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/sentencingnvgov/content/Meetings/2022/08.24.22%20NSC%20Mtg.%20Agenda%20Item%208%20PFJ%20What%20Really%20Lowers%20Crime.pdf A Better Path Forward for Criminal Justice - Brookings Institute https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-better-path-forward-for-criminal-justice/ Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest From Ages 8 to 23 in a National Sample, January 11 2012 James P. Smith https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article-abstract/129/1/21/31558/Cumulative-Prevalence-of-Arrest-From-Ages-8-to-23?redirectedFrom=fulltex Prison Reform: Reducing Recidivism by Strengthening the Federal Bureau of Prisons https://www.justice.gov/archives/prison-reform Clips at the end of the video: Scott Budnick - Reducing Recidivism through Connection and Community https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9slBJaSka4g Preventing Recidivism Through Education https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rK3x1jD4Nk Criminal Justice Reform https://www.c-span.org/video/?433121-1/criminal-justice-reform Prison: hot to break the cycle of reoffending? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBUSzXvMWCk Criminology: The Core 5th Edition by Larry J. Siegel https://www.amazon.com/Criminology-Core-Larry-J-Siegel/dp/1285068904 00:00 - Who talks about career criminals, repeat offenders, and superpredators 00:09 - Why do we need to talk about chronic offenders? 01:01 - Introduction to Delinquency in Birth Cohort 01:29 - The Study 01:38 - What is a "cohort"? 02:33 - What is the etiology of crime? 03:24 - What the birth cohort actually studied 03:55 - The Question 04:00 - Why is studying recidivism so important 04:29 - Rainforest's fantasy of a world that understands recidivism 05:24 - Tough on Crime 06:05 - The Findings 06:11 - What the birth cohort study actually discovered about recidivism 07:23 - Was this just one study? 08:36 - Superpredators 09:05 - Who is John DiLulio and where did the phrase "superpredators" come from? 10:23 - Moral Poverty and The Crime Bill 12:10 - The Crime Bill and Mass Incarceration 12:36 - What Everyone REALLY Gets Wrong 12:41 - Should we punish MORE people? 13:58 - Punishment causes crime 15:56 - Oh, So Now I CAN'T Burn Witches 16:28 - What helps, what doesn't, and who to vote for 21:38 - Thank you, suggestions, and outro

The Pennsylvania Department of Crime and Delinquency has released it's 2023 survey results. The survey, also known as PAYS, has been administered in the state since 1989. It gathers information on student behaviors, attitudes, knowledge concerning alcohol, tobacco, drug use, and violence for students between the 6th and 12th grades. According to Mike Pennington, Executive Director of the Pennsylvania Commission of Crime and Delinquency, there have been some positive findings in the results. “So, 68% of the students report high levels of attachment to their families. 68%, 6,864% report their families, provide opportunities for positive social engagement activities. And a little over 93% of students in all grades reported that their parents know where they are and know who they're with. And about 86% of the kids reported that there are clear family roles and alcohol and drug use about alcohol and drug use.” The survey also discovered a rise in mental health concerns and bullying. “Almost 38% of students reported feeling sad or depressed most days, and 37% of seniors reporting that at times, you know, feeling that they don't think they're good at all. You know, about 16% of eighth graders reported self-harming behavior and 32% of kids reported being bullied. And, and also considered seriously considered suicide over the past year. And just some other concerns to note, 56% of kids reported low commitment to school. 64% of students feel, you know, tired and not ready for school frequently at school. And 20% of students worried that food aid would run out before their families could buy more. You know, some of that food and stability and security.” These results help to put in place resources and organizations to improve the needs of students in schools and in the communities. “The Shapiro Davis administration has invested heavily in school safety and especially to support behavioral health needs of kids. So, this year, we just in this year's budget, $100 million was approved to support school safety and school security. And a significant portion of that goes for behavioral health support for kids. So, it gives schools the flexibility to implement the programs that are needed at the local level. So, we're providing resources to help them implement the programs that they need based on what they're seeing at the school level. So we're making a tremendous investment. So, some of that is to continue existing programs and some of that is to implement new programs based on, I think what they're seeing locally as what's needed most to support their students.”      Support WITF: https://www.witf.org/support/give-now/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

PJ talks to Jack Courtney who says that providing outlets for teens is as important as law and order enforcement Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tánaiste Micheál Martin made a surprising intervention in the Sophie Toscan du Plantier case - Mick Clifford & Ian Baileys solicitor gave us their thoughts… We Know about bully dogs, but what about the bully cat? Clare from the Cat Hospital says breeding them should be banned.. A town in East Cork has suffered a lot from antisocial behaviour - one young man is doing his bit to takes on teen delinquency & more Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Office buildings continue to struggle in the post-pandemic era, but our Chief Fixed Income Strategist notes that other properties have turned a corner. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about how the challenges facing the US commercial real estate markets have evolved and talk about where they are headed next.It's Wednesday, Sep 11th at 10 am in New York.Over the last year and half, the challenges of commercial real estate, or CRE in short, have been periodically in the spotlight. The last time we discussed this issue here was in the first quarter of this year. That was in the aftermath of loan losses announced by a regional bank that primarily focused on rent-stabilized multifamily and CRE lending in the New York metropolitan area. At the same time, lenders and investors in Japan, Germany and Canada also reported sizable credit losses and write-down related to US commercial real estate.At that time, we had said that CRE issues should be scrutinized through the lenses of lenders and property types; and that saw meaningful challenges in both – in particular, regional banks as lenders and office as a property type.Rolling the calendar forward, where do things stand now?Focusing on the lenders first, there is some good news. While regional bank challenges from their CRE exposures have not gone away, they are not getting any worse. That means incremental reserves for CRE losses have been below what we had feared. Our economists' expectations of Fed's rate cuts on the back of their soft-landing thesis, gives us the conviction that lower rates should be an incremental benefit from a credit quality perspective for banks because it alleviates pressure on debt service coverage ratios for borrowers. Lower rates also give banks more room to work with their borrowers for longer by providing extensions. For banks, this means while CRE net charge-offs could rise in the near term, they are likely to stabilize in 2025.In other words, even though the fundamental deterioration in terms of the level of delinquencies and losses may be ahead, the rate of change seems to have clearly turned. In that sense, as long as the rate cuts that we anticipate materialize, the worst of the CRE issues for regional banks may now be behind us.From the lens of property types, it is important not to paint all property types with the same brushstroke of negativity. Office lots remain the pain point. Looking at the payoff rates in CMBS pools gives us a granular look at the performance across different property types.Overall, 76 per cent of the CRE loans that matured over the past 12 months paid off, which is a pretty healthy rate. However, in office loans, the payoff rate was just 43 per cent. Other property types were clearly much better. For example, 100 per cent of industrial property loans, 96 per cent of multi-family loans, 89 per cent of hotel loans that matured in the last 12 months paid off. The payoff rates in retail property loans were a bit lower but still pretty healthy at 76 per cent, in clear contrast to office properties. Delinquency rates across property types also show a similar trend with office loans driving the lion's share of the overall increase in delinquencies.In short, the secular headwinds facing the office market have not dissipated. Office property valuations, leasing arrangements and financing structures must adjust to the post-pandemic realities of office work. While this shift has begun, more is needed. So, there is really no quick resolution for these challenges which we think are likely to persist. This is especially true in central business district offices that require significant capex for upgrades or repurposing for use as residential housing.Overall, we stick to our contention that commercial real estate risks present a persistent challenge but are unlikely to become systemic for the economy. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen to this and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we cover the recent focus on the cost of housing (is the rent too damn high?), providing a deep dive into the multifamily sector. We also share data center data (or da-ta?), and give a sneak peak of our latest CMBS Delinquency Report. We also discuss struggling mall and retail loans, an array of office property value reductions, and other loans sent off to special servicing. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Economic Update (1:28) - Is the Rent too Damn High? (6:10) - NYC Multifamily Properties (17:19) - Data Center Data (19:10) - Delinquency Preview (23:37) - Struggling Mall & Retail Loans (29:11) - Office Property Value Reductions (36:15) - Mixed-Use Loan Moved to Special Servicing (45:03) - Shoutouts (48:05) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Elder law attorney Kerry Peck joins John Williams to answer all your questions about elder law, trusts, wills, and elder abuse. Kerry discusses a recent study that shows in the years prior to an Alzheimer's disease or other memory disorder diagnosis, credit scores begin to weaken and payment delinquency begins to increase. If you have a question […]

Elder law attorney Kerry Peck joins John Williams to answer all your questions about elder law, trusts, wills, and elder abuse. Kerry discusses a recent study that shows in the years prior to an Alzheimer's disease or other memory disorder diagnosis, credit scores begin to weaken and payment delinquency begins to increase. If you have a question […]

Elder law attorney Kerry Peck joins John Williams to answer all your questions about elder law, trusts, wills, and elder abuse. Kerry discusses a recent study that shows in the years prior to an Alzheimer's disease or other memory disorder diagnosis, credit scores begin to weaken and payment delinquency begins to increase. If you have a question […]

Aug 14, 2024 – Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net, who correctly forecasted the recent pullback, gives FS Insider an update on his market and economic outlook, discussing a potential retest as well as what he's seeing in the data when it comes to concerns over...

President Joe Biden's uneven post-NATO summit press conference won't do much to assuage concerns about his competence.

The Van Wie Financial Hour is live every Saturday at 10 AM! If you missed it, listen to this week's episode where Adam and Steve cover various financial topics that could affect you!

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the resurgence of major commercial real estate players and their capital allocation strategies. We provide the latest data on bank CRE loan and CMBS delinquencies, explore trends in the office SASB market, and share insights on office sales, including properties listed on auction sites. Tune in now. Episode Notes: Blackstone commit to deploy $65 billion dry powder (1:25) Malls into minicities (5:33) Superregional mall feud (9:02) Banks dumping real estate loans (13:50) Bank CRE loan performance and CMBS delinquencies (18:12) Mezzanine lender intervenes on Gas Company Tower (26:35) Online office auction (29:15) Large apartment acquisition (33:05) SASB office market (36:22) Shoutouts (43:35) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week's episode, Todd provides an update on the market, describes how office delinquency rates have evolved over time, and discusses supply and demand for equity. Click here to view supporting charts referenced in today's episode.

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial look at some what seem like crazy options trades in GameStop. Plus, examining Nvidia passing Apple as the second largest stock in the S&P 500, and can it pass Microsoft for #1? They also talk about whether it's a problem the top 4 stocks in the S&P 500 make up such a large percentage of the weighting and comparing it to the last time it was this high. Later they take some listener questions including whether the data shows cracks in the regional banks due to mortgage delinquencies, what happened in the unemployment report, and more.   Unemployment reaches 4% Top 4 companies in the S&P 500 Index highest since the 1960's Comparing the contribution to returns S&P 500 Index top 496 vs the top 3 and Nvidia Residential mortgage delinquencies and effect on regional banks FDIC quarterly data on the health of banks Nvidia passes Apple for #2 as its market cap exceeds Apples but will Microsoft be next? 1964 vs 2024 top 4 company weighting in the S&P 500 Index Now the top 4 companies today are a lot more diverse business GameStop options trading Looking at the 128 calls open interest, volume and probabilities next 2 weekly expirations Volatility in the GameStop option chain   Mentioned in this Episode   Mortgage Bankers Association data on residential mortgage delinquencies https://usreop.com/mba-chart-of-the-week-seriously-delinquent-rates-by-loan-type-conventional-fha-va-may-17-2024/   Delinquency rates on commercial real estate loans from FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS   CNBC piece on potential cracks in the banking system https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/where-cracks-in-the-banking-sector-may-appear-without-more-ma.html   Crazy VIX Bets Due to Election? | Market Reversal | Home Ownership Affordability Today | Shiller PE https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crazy-vix-bets-due-to-election-market-reversal-home/id1432836154?i=1000657610266   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag     Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Chad Sutton discusses unexpected challenges in multifamily due diligence, emphasizing thorough checks in legal, contractual, physical, and financial areas. He advises reviewing all documents and consulting an attorney for a comprehensive process. Chad Sutton | Real Estate Background Quattro Capital Based in:  Nashville, TN Portfolio: LP:  $210M in multifamily assets in 6 states. Say hi to him at: https://linqapp.com/chadhsutton Best Ever Book: Who Not How by Dan Sullivan

For all debt outside of student loans, delinquency has been steadily rising since the fourth quarter of 2021 following historic lows during the COVID-19 pandemic. Today's Stocks & Topics: WWD - Woodward Inc., NCLH - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., COST - Costco Wholesale Corp., Market Wrap, Credit Card Delinquency Is Increasing for Maxed‑Out Borrowers, WEC - WEC Energy Group Inc., ETR - Entergy Corp., IOO - iShares Global 100 ETF, CSL - Carlisle Cos., A-I and Energy, MDT - Medtronic PLC, Europe's Economy.Our Sponsors:* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/* Check out eBay Auto: www.ebay.com* Learn more at hackerone.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Grad school can take a toll on mental and physical health, particularly for women of color. Yet there is no denying that it can also play a role in advancing economic mobility. That's why this episode is all about the good, the bad, and the ugly of graduate school, and what First-Gen BIPOC students, especially First Gen Low Income BIPOC students, need to know if they are thinking about it. My guests, Dr. Yvette Martinez-Vu and Dr. Miroslava Chavez-Garcia, talk about their book 'Is Grad School for Me?' and their journeys to addressing such a highly-needed topic in our community. Whether or not you're considering grad school, listen to learn how you can leverage any level of education to advance your career.  About today's guests: Dr. Yvette Martínez-Vu is a grad school and productivity coach and host of the globally top-rated Grad School Femtoring Podcast. She is also the co-editor of the best-selling Chicana M(other)work Anthology and founder of Grad School Femtoring, LLC, where she supports first-gen BIPOC folks in reaching their academic and personal goals.  Stay in Touch:  www.gradschoolfemtoring.com https://www.instagram.com/gradschoolfemtoring/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/yvettemartinezvu/ Dr. Miroslava Chávez-García is Professor of History at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and is currently the Faculty Director of the UCSB McNair Scholars Program. She is author of Migrant Longing, States of Delinquency, and Negotiating Conquest. Stay in Touch: :  https://www.history.ucsb.edu/faculty/mchavezgarcia/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/miroslava-chavez-garcia-779919222/ Get the Book https://gradschoolfemtoring.com/book/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thefirstgencoach/support

On today's show, we once again open our Friday show with Tara Bull's Top 10 News Stories you likely did not hear on the Legacy/mainstream media this week. From audience feedback, I will be keeping this in the format for a long time to come! Next I give you my thoughts on why the members of the Freedom Caucus have been attending the court trial of Donald Trump in NYC. We know Trump puts a premium on loyalty and I think it's a good move for people who love the Constitution to be thought of favorably by Trump. If he wins the presidency, wouldn't it be great from Trump to use some of them in his cabinet or the executive branch? I then discuss some recent data on delinquency data for Americans. This data tracks the kinds of debts we have, like credit card, mortgages, auto loans and more and how many people are more than 30 days behind in paying their financial obligations. It's a worrisome indicator over how the Biden economy is beginning to collapse in middle and lower America. In a shock to my own mind, Fox Business's Neil Cavuto actually challenged Jared Bernstein, the chief economic advisor to Joe Biden, over why Biden keeps trying to say inflation was a 9% when he was elected? Remember, this is the blithering idiot who cannot explain why the government has debt if it can just print whatever money it needs? CNN cannot believe how badly Alvin Bragg screwed up the Donald Trump case by letting Michael testify on the stand. The lies keep building and even Leftists cannot avoid the debacle. It looks like the House Oversight Committee is holding AG Merrick Garland in contempt for failing to turn over the audio of the Biden interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur. So we need to discuss the catch-22 Joe Biden is in right now and there is no good way out. Seems the NIH is now admitting they did fund gain-of-function through EcoHealth Alliance, meaning Dr. Fauci lied, a lot! They also had to deal with a chain of emails stating they “knew how to hide emails” and “get around FOIA” requests. And, they admitted the social distancing mantra was all made up. Finally, as we close for the week, let's imagine that first debate coming up at the end of June. I know Biden is stacking the deck in his favor, but just imagine what Donald Trump's opening might sound like. For fun, we do exactly that. Take a moment to rate and review the show and then share the episode on social media. You can find me on Facebook, X, Instagram, GETTR and TRUTH Social by searching for The Alan Sanders Show. You can also support the show by visiting my Patreon page!

U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation resumed its downward trend at the start of the second quarter in a boost to financial market expectations for a September interest rate cut.New data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as household debt balances grew during the first quarter, delinquencies also marched higher. Notably, the percentage of credit card balances in serious delinquency (90 days or more late) climbed to its highest level since 2012.Entrepreneur and former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt said on Wednesday his organization, Project Liberty, is forming a consortium to buy social media platform TikTok in the United States.

Show Summary In this episode, Dr. Miroslava Chavez-Garcia and Dr. Yvette Martínez-Vu discuss the challenges faced by underrepresented groups in graduate school and provide advice for all grad school applicants. They emphasize the importance of finding a good fit in a program and building strong relationships with faculty. They also discuss the concept of imposter syndrome and its role in the admissions process for first-gen applicants. The guests highlight the benefits of taking a gap year (or more) before applying to graduate school and offer advice to their younger selves.  Show Notes Welcome to the 575th episode of Admissions Straight Talk. Thanks for tuning in. The challenge at the heart of grad school admissions is showing that you both fit in at your target schools and are a standout in the applicant pool. Accepted's free download, "Fitting In and Standing Out: The Paradox at the Heart of Admissions," will show you how to do both. Master this paradox and you are well on your way to acceptance. You can download this free guide at accepted.com/FISO. Our guests today are Dr. Yvette Martínez-Vu,a grad school and productivity coach and host of the globally top-rated Grad School Femtoring Podcast. She is also the co-editor of the best-selling Chicana M(other)work Anthology, co-author of Is Grad School for Me? Demystifying the Application Process for First-Gen BIPOC Students, and founder of Grad School Femtoring, LLC, where she coaches first-gen BIPOC folks in reaching their academic and personal goals. Dr. Miroslava Chávez-García is Professor of History at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and is currently the Faculty Director of the UCSB McNair Scholars Program. She is author of Migrant Longing, States of Delinquency, and Negotiating Conquest, and co-author of Is Grad School for Me? Demystifying the Application Process for First-Gen BIPOC Students. Dr. Chavez-Garcia and Dr. Martínez-Vu, welcome to Admissions Straight Talk. [2:08] [MCG] Thank you for having us. [YMV] Yes, thank you. What I'd like to do is first discuss your advice that applies to all grad students, kind of the foundation, and then focus on the specific challenges faced by BIPOC applicants as well as your suggestions for overcoming them. And of course, I'd like to hear how you came to write Is Grad School For Me? Let's start with a very basic question: what are good and bad reasons for pursuing a grad degree? [2:35] [YMV] The first thing that comes to mind when you ask that question are all the many bad reasons that sometimes individuals find themselves when they're applying to graduate school. And when I think about bad reasons, I think about a lot of external reasons that may not be directly tied to what they need to do to pursue the career path in life they want. So I'm thinking someone who's saying, "Oh, I'm going to apply to grad school because I want to delay my job search because the job market is terrible," or, "I want to go to graduate school because my friend or my mom told me to do it," or, "I want to go to graduate school because I have this romanticized view about what it looks like to have a career in academia," and trust me, behind the scenes, it's not always pretty. And then of course there's some folks who are afraid of facing reality, like post-college reality. They want to keep deferring their student loans and so they find that as another option to do that, and I don't think those are great. We had a son who kind of tried to go down that path and ended up not doing it. He definitely wanted to postpone adulthood. [3:47] [YMV] Now, for the good reasons. I will say that usually when folks ask me, it's a very personal decision, but there are two solid good reasons to apply to graduate school. The first one is if you absolutely need it to pursue the career that you want and/or to advance in your career. That's a very good reason. Second is an intrinsic reason,

Earnings season continues with EA, Wynn, Lyft, Arista Networks and Rivian – plus Reddit surged in Overtime after reporting its first quarter as a public company. Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli and JPMorgan's Phil Camporeale break down the action. Honeywell CEO Vimal Kapur talks the company's plans for AI and monetizing data, plus the energy transition and why he says he expects EVTOLs to change people's lives like the iPhone – and by 2028. TransUnion CEO Chris Cartwright on the consumer, credit and delinquency rates. 

In this week's episode, we break down if anything will really change for the commercial real estate markets following the Fed's rate decision. We also dive into retail earnings, and specifically discuss some of the latest news for fast food chains. We share our latest CMBS delinquency rates and discuss what a negative headline means in the very dynamic world of CRE. Then, we run through stories for mixed-use, office, retail, industrial, and multifamily. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Fed meeting, economic update - impact on CRE (0:23) - Retail earnings: fast food (9:40) - CMBS delinquency rates (15:55) - Office stories (19:00) - Mixed-use overview (25:01) - Multifamily stories (36:35) - Retail headlines (40:12) - Industrial (42:58) - Lodging (45:27) - Shoutouts (46:10) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Exciting Announcement!

Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter Apartment construction is falling. It's not because banks are pulling back from lending. Projects aren't feasible for builders. Housing market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga returns to discuss the real estate market.  We discuss: real estate price movement, affordability concerns, expected mortgage rate changes, migration, price reductions, new homes vs. existing homes. Can anyone even find a new-build $225K detached SFH today? They're nearly extinct. Homebuilders are still buying down mortgage rates for you into the 4%s and 5%s at GREmarketplace.com. America needs more SFHs, especially at the entry-level.  Apartment rents have declined a little. SFH rents are up about 3% year-over-year.  Delinquency and foreclosure activity remains low. These have a strong correlation with unemployment rates. The volume of homes sales should increase this year, but only by perhaps 10%. A recession is still quite possible later this year and expected to be mild. Every region of the nation is currently experiencing residential RE price growth.  When mortgage rates fall, more new buyers than sellers are expected, pushing up property prices. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/496 Inquire about business with Rick: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X: @ricksharga LinkedIn: Rick Sharga For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Tons of new apartments were built last year, but that's abruptly going to change going forward. You'll learn why. Then a housing market intelligence analyst and I break down what's happening in the real estate market and the future direction of rents, prices, foreclosures, interest rates, and a lot more today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE 266866.   Corey Coates (00:01:34) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:50) - Welcome to grow from Alexandria, Egypt, to Alexandria, Virginia, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, holding your inside get rich education. I'm grateful to have you here. A few weeks ago, I discussed all the apartment buildings that were constructed last year. One thing that you'll often hear out there today is that apartment construction is now falling because banks are pulling back on construction lending. But no, it's really not quite that simple. In fact, that's not even the top reason for construction delays now and going forward with apartments. The number one reason for the delays today is that the project is not economically feasible at this time. That's what the NMC tells us. All right. So what does that really mean? Well, it means that projects aren't penciling out.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - In other words, apartment developers, they can't generate the returns that they need to justify the project to their capital partners, those that are funding the building. And this is, by the way, not about greedy developers, because contrary to some of the noise, it's the fact that developers do not self-fund their projects. They get the money from others. So yeah, it's the developer's job to convince investors and lenders to inject that capital. And that is just harder to do right now. Despite developer's best efforts and higher rates are obviously still contributing to the problem. It's not so much that the construction financing is not available, because for residential, it's often there. It's available. The thing is, is that apartment mortgage terms and rates are way less favorable than they were a couple of years ago, as we all know. So developers, I mean, they're paying a higher interest rate then. And you therefore need higher rent to cover that higher interest rate unless you can cut a lot of costs elsewhere and in apartments, you're also getting a lower loan to value ratio.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:55) - So that means developers, they therefore need to raise even more equity in order to cover that gap. And what's happened is a lot of the equity that's shifted away from brand new ground up apartment development, and instead it's gone over into chasing potential lease up distressed deals, properties that are already out there and are having some problems. So that's where the apartment money is moving right now. Not so much to new developers and builders also aren't building many apartments this year because construction costs remain a problem. Some materials got cheaper, others didn't. One bright spot is that construction labor that is getting easier to find. But yet the actual labor cost that really hasn't dropped. Property insurance is higher too, so these rising expenses, that means apartment projects are not penciling out for builders and then apartment rents. They're just not rising that much. That doesn't help. So it's hard for it to rise, since so many were built last year and the year before. They're in the apartment world. But obviously the long term demand is for just about all residential housing.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - That demand. Is there loads of long term demand for apartments, condos, single family homes, co-ops, modular homes, mobile homes, duplexes, triplexes, fourplex container homes, row houses, farmhouses, penthouses, outhouses. I think you get the idea. The demand is there. Residential is the resilient spot, and it's all about where you want to get in. And speaking of homebuilders and finding a smart place to get in, it's important to share with you the good news that homebuilders are still buying down your interest. Right for you. Now the third year rate, it hit 8% last year. And Non-owner occupied property costs a little more. So it was nearly 9% on income property. It's come down off that as we know it's been around seven lately. But see here at GREwe work with builders that are still buying down your interest rate into the fives and sometimes still into the fours on new construction, single family homes, up to four plex and sometimes larger in Florida, Alabama and elsewhere. I mean, that is just the best deal going for you today to have an income producing new build property in the path of growth at 4 to 1, leverage to 5 to 1 leverage and.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:46) - Your mortgage in the fives or less, and we'll help you find the real deals within that. To connect with a great investment coach at great marketplace.com. I think you'll be glad you did. Now, today, if somehow I could use a time machine to write a letter back to my 2020 self and inform myself about what's going to happen in the housing market for the next 4 or 5 years? And I had to keep this note to myself short. I would have written that everything is going to shoot way up, rents up, prices up, interest rates up, expenses up, inflation up. Well, now that nearly all of those run ups have settled into place, we can draw a clearer picture of where we think the real estate market is going to be positioned in the future. Our guest has just freshened things up and he's got the latest in the property market all updated for us. I do two with my own research. You'll like this. It's our housing intelligence analyst guests and I. Straight ahead.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get Rich education.    You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:15) - They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.   Kristin Tate (00:09:42) - This is author Kristin Tate. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:59) - Hey what has not been a very long goodbye. Just like last week when we discussed the economy this week we have the return of the C.J. Patrick Company's Rick Sharga, an extraordinary housing intelligence analyst, as we more specifically cover the real estate market. And if you're on video, you'll have the benefit of seeing some charts as well. Rick. Welcome back. Good to be back, Keith. Long time no see. Yeah, it hasn't been so long. What are your overall thoughts with the housing market? Last week we largely talked about a resilient economy potentially with some headwinds. Yeah we did.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:32) - And I think we're one of the things we left off on was the impact that the Federal Reserve had had on the mortgage market and the housing market. We probably start there. When you look at what's gone on, and just to show you how random all of this can feel sometimes this is a snapshot of mortgage rates from March 12th. And mortgage rates were trading at about 6.92% for a 30 year fixed rate loan.   Rick Sharga (00:10:56) - The most recent number I saw was about 7.1%. And as I mentioned to you and your listeners last time, I expect until the Federal Reserve makes its first fed funds rate cut, we're going to see mortgages trade right around 7% between 6.75 and 7.25%. This has made a big difference in the market because it has limited affordability for literally millions of prospective home buyers. That's makes for a difficult situation for people looking to buy or sell homes, but it also presents millions of rental property opportunities because these people need to live somewhere and they've voted themselves off the island temporarily. They just can't afford to buy a house.   Rick Sharga (00:11:41) - And you see that in terms of the reduction in number of mortgage applications that are being made. So if the Mortgage Bankers Association tracks the number of people that apply for loans, if you went back to December when mortgage rates dipped just a little bit, we saw a run up of loan applications, and as soon as they went back up to seven, we saw that number fall off. It's a very, very rate sensitive market. We'll talk a little bit about some of the implications of that as we move ahead, Keith. But the weak affordability, the higher interest rates, the continuing high home prices led to a very, very weak year in 2023. In terms of overall home sales, we ended the year with about 3.9 million existing homes sold. That's the lowest number of homes sold in a year in a quarter century. Yeah, even lower than we saw in the Great Recession. And December was the 28th consecutive month where we sold fewer properties than we sold the year before.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:39) - So a contraction in the number of sales, although prices appreciated last year.   Rick Sharga (00:12:44) - Yeah, we'll talk about that this year. I'd been hopeful that we'd be a little bit of a better start. January and February were both up in terms of home sales on a month over month basis, but continued this trend of lower sales on a year over year basis. We're looking at 30 consecutive months where we sold fewer properties than we sold the prior year. As a result of this.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:05) - Supply crash, that really began about four years ago.   Rick Sharga (00:13:08) - It's partly supplied as partly costs, that affordability. We really can't overestimate the impact that affordability has had. But you're right in terms of inventory and in fact, a good segue, it's almost like you'd seen this before, Keith. Inventory is up significantly from last year, about 24% higher than it was a year ago, according to some data from Altos Research. But it's still only running about half of 2019 levels. So in a normal market, we would have about a six month supply of homes available for sale in our market today, we're looking at somewhere between two and a half and three months supply.   Rick Sharga (00:13:44) - That lack of supply with some pent up demand is one of the reasons we have seen prices continue to be very healthy, and we haven't seen the the price crash that all the snake oil salesmen on YouTube comments. As of mid-March, about 513,000 homes available for sale, again, about 24% higher. Than last year when the numbers were just dismal. We normally do see more inventory coming to market this time of year. We'll not get anywhere near where we were back in, you know, years like 2019, 2020. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see a little bit more inventory coming to market.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:21) - Now, Rick, for existing properties, we have the very well documented interest rate lock in effect. I think a lot of people understand that. But as far as bringing more supply onto the market, do you see anything from the builder side? You know, costs are up for builders and builders feel this lack of affordability from the buyer market as well. So therefore that motivates them to build somewhat less.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:43) - And they're also building smaller properties, some shrinkflation with new construction property to try to help out with that affordability. So what are your thoughts with builder motivations this year and next year?   Rick Sharga (00:14:54) - All that thought is we're going to get to new homes in just a couple of minutes. So keep that right forefront in mind. But let's just kind of wrap up on existing sales. I do want to point out to your listeners that the inventory growth is actually outpacing the number of new listings. So new listings are only up about 14% year over year, whereas overall inventory is up 24%. The reason for that is it's taking longer to sell homes once they get to market. So once those properties are listed, they're staying in the inventory numbers a little bit longer than they were last year or even a few months ago. So that's one of the reasons the inventory numbers look a little bit better than they did. You talked about the rate lock effect. It's still very real. About two thirds of everybody with a mortgage has a mortgage rate of 4% or less.   Rick Sharga (00:15:43) - And this is not home sellers being picky or having a psychological problem. This is math. If you sell a property today and buy a new one for exactly the same price as the one you just sold, you've now doubled your monthly mortgage payment and most people simply can't afford to do that. So the properties being listed or by by people who feel like they need to sell, there's a death in the family or a birth in the family. There's a divorce or there's a marriage. There's a job loss or job that requires a transfer, maybe some financial difficulties where the borrowers in distress so they feel like they have to sell the home, or somebody's been retired for a long time, has a lot of equity, and just says, oh the heck with it. It's time for me to downsize. But the people who would normally be making a decision that maybe I'd like to sell, maybe I'd like to look at a move up opportunity. Those people are sitting on the sidelines and rather than seeing a price crash, which is what people are breathlessly trying to sell you on YouTube, the most likely scenario, something we've seen play out in the 80s and 90s and is likely to play out again in the 2020s, which is several years of kind of lackluster sales volume and modest price growth.   Rick Sharga (00:16:54) - And it takes a few years to reset the levels so that all those people with the Sub4 mortgages gradually, slowly work their way out of inventory and are replaced by people with mortgages that are closer to today's rates. And we've seen that happen, like I said, in the 80s and 90s, and it's a very normal occurrence when you have a sudden shift in either mortgage rates or home prices, that's much more likely to happen than a 2030 40% drop in home prices to make things affordable. And I would just ask anybody who's skeptical, if somebody approached you tomorrow and you didn't have to sell, but they said, hey, sell me your house for 40% less than market value. How interested would you be in having that conversation?   Keith Weinhold (00:17:36) - Wouldn't last long.   Rick Sharga (00:17:37) - No. And then home prices are up in every region. You mentioned this, Keith. Across the country I'm sharing for people that can see it. I'm sharing data from the Fhfa, which is the entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So all of those 30 year fixed rate conventional loans and a year over year basis, we saw prices go up 6.3%.   Rick Sharga (00:17:56) - They were up in every region of the country. And that's a little different than the prior year when the Pacific region was actually down. But every region of the country is seeing price growth right now. And whichever price index you look at Case-Shiller,, Freddie Mac, the Fhfa index, National Association of Realtors, everybody showed similar numbers were every region was up. But importantly for your listeners and I emphasize this enough, local results are very different than national results. So even within markets where we're seeing prices go up, there are going to be neighborhoods where prices are going down and vice versa. So it's much more important for you to understand what's going on in your local market than to listen to a lot of these national trends. I will tell you that some of the markets that overheated during the pandemic, as people were moving out of high priced, high tax or highly congested areas, are seeing a bit of a clawback. So places like Boise, Idaho and Saint George's, Utah and Austin and Phoenix and Las Vegas, we're seeing those markets with the prices clawing back a little bit, a lot of price growth continuing the southeast.   Rick Sharga (00:19:04) - So and surprisingly now in the Midwest as well. So we are still seeing a bit of a migration from high price, high tax areas into lower priced markets. I tell folks, Keith, I have two adult kids living at home. My son's getting married in September. He's a teacher. His fiance is a lawyer, and they took me aside recently and said, hey, you follow this stuff. What states should we be looking at outside of California to move so that we can own a house?   Keith Weinhold (00:19:31) - Wow, that is really, really interesting that that would dictate their decision on where they live, if they have that much of a preference to own rather than rent. Recently, a lot of us in the industry learned that the average age of the first time homebuyer is now 36, older than ever.   Rick Sharga (00:19:48) - Yep. And these are two kids with good heads on their shoulders. They know there are benefits to homeownership, and they also know that the median price of a home sold in California last month was almost $800,000, and the First National Bank of dad ain't financing that acquisition.   Rick Sharga (00:20:02) - So I'm sure these conversations are happening in New York, in Chicago, in Miami and in San Francisco, and it's just the reality of today's marketplace. We talked about prices going up. We are seeing slightly more homes having a price reduction before they're sold. That always happens somewhere along the lines of 30 to 35% of homes listed wind up with a price reduction before they're sold. We're up to about 31% now, so we're still in the normal range, but we're a little higher than we've been in recent months.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:35) - This is interesting, a statistic we don't talk about very much, the percent of homes experiencing list price reductions.   Rick Sharga (00:20:42) - And it peaked in 2022. The highest number we've seen in quite a while was over 40%. And that was right after interest rates doubled. And so it's probably not a huge surprise. People were anticipating they were pricing based on the prior market. And I think we're seeing more rational pricing today. But again, that combination of prices just being as high as they are and interest rates being as high as they are, are creating some affordability issues.   Rick Sharga (00:21:05) - And for people that have to sell, they're taking price reductions. Now, keep in mind these price reductions are often very, very minimal. In California, for example, the average price reduction is less than a percent. So it's not a huge reduction, but it's still a reduction from what the list price was. You asked about new homes. So now I'm going to make you happy. We'll talk about new homes. New home inventory levels are increasing. We normally want to see about a six month supply of existing homes for sale. The new home inventory is usually between 7 and 8 months. And we're back to that number right now. Some of those homes available for sale are still under construction, but they are nonetheless available for sale. And we've seen that inventory improve over the last year as supply chain disruptions have minimized as builders are now more able to find laborers for construction. Those are two huge holdups they had over the last couple of years, and we've seen new home sales increase. And one of the reasons for that is they're available.   Rick Sharga (00:22:05) - So if you're a builder and you put a home in the market at the right price, you're going to sell it because there just aren't that many existing homes available for sale. And to your other point, Keith, new home prices are actually down 15% from peak. Existing home prices are up, new home prices are down. And in fact, if you look at the most recent new home pricing data put up by the Census Bureau recently, new home prices are at the lowest level since June of 2021. So they've really come down pretty significantly and are not that far away from existing home prices in many markets. So that median price of an existing home and the median price of a new home for sale are closer than they've been in years, partly because the builders are building smaller homes, partly because you're using less expensive fixtures. And the other thing that the builders have been doing, and this price is a lot of people, but it's brilliant on their part, is they're coming to closing with thousands of dollars and they're paying down mortgage rates.   Rick Sharga (00:23:01) - They're buying points and dropping the mortgage rate for their buyers. I spoke to a group in Denver recently where there was a local builder advertising mortgage rates of 4.99%. So think about that.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:13) - We have providers we work with here that are doing similar things. We're still seeing the rate buy downs happening, and that's why I've often told people, Rick, like, this is potentially a good time in the cycle when you're adding more rental property to really look at new builds or build to rent while these rate buy downs last. Now, I talked to a builder in Houston yesterday, and I learned a few interesting things. You talked about the smaller square footages. They could confirm that often times this builder offers either a bedroom or a study. You can get an extra bedroom or a study like a little office space. And more and more people are opting for the study. So they're starting to build homes more with the study in mind because more people are working from home and one less bedroom because people are having fewer children.   Rick Sharga (00:23:57) - Exactly right. It's the combination of both of those two things, either having fewer children or having them later. And many more people working from home than they were prior to the pandemic. And those studies become very, very useful., rooms to have in the house. Rick, what.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:12) - Is the lowest cost, new build, single family home that you see? I mean, is anyone even building in any parts of the nation, like a 225 K new build home? I haven't seen one.   Rick Sharga (00:24:26) - I haven't seen one. But I wouldn't be surprised if you're in a market in a state like Alabama or Mississippi and some of the more outlying areas, maybe some markets in the Midwest where home prices aren't as astronomical as they are elsewhere. But look, the builders are building judiciously. They're not overbuilding., we had a cycle in 2008 where we had a 13 month supply of homes available for sale and building Irish building. They got caught with overstock. But what they are building, they tend to build as move up homes because they're more profitable.   Rick Sharga (00:24:58) - So you're just not seeing an awful lot of entry level homes being built. And the hope is that as they build that first move up level home, some of the people with entry level homes will opt to sell and bring some of that inventory back to market. We are seeing more construction. We are seeing building permits,, going up on a year over year basis., most recent numbers are around 1.5 million permits. So the builders are bullish on the future. And housing starts were up in both January and February. Most importantly they're up most strongly in single family owner occupied homes. We're seeing housing starts to decline dramatically in terms of multifamily starts, right. But that's because there's about a million new apartment units coming online between last year and this year. And we don't need a whole lot more apartments., we need,, more single family homes. So if your listeners are seeing headlines talking about housing starts being lower, it's really because we're seeing fewer multifamily starts.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:54) - Last year was a big year for multifamily construction.   Rick Sharga (00:25:57) - All time high in terms of multifamily units under construction. And a lot of those are still coming to market this year. There are going to be some markets that are actually still oversupplied. So again, you have to be paying very close attention. When we talk a little bit about the rental market in the apartment category, we have seen apartment rents decline year over year in pretty much all categories. Whether you're looking at studio apartments, one bedroom apartments, two better apartments on a year over year basis, rents are actually in negative territory, according to Realtor.com and according to some data I've recently seen from RealPage. If you're looking at the actual price of rent and I know that's a little different than percentage increases or decreases, you're still seeing that rents about it's below peak. It's about 1.6% below the peak we hit in 2022,, when vacancy rates were just about nothing. But we are still below peak, and the median rent is ranging,, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,700 a year for apartments, single family homes, which I suspect more of your listeners are actually,, renting out than apartments.   Rick Sharga (00:27:03) - Yes. Are doing better. We're seeing year over year rents continue to grow. They're growing modestly. They have not gone into negative territory, and they haven't,, during this boom and bust cycle that we've seen in the housing market. And if you're looking at,, price gains, according to some recent data from CoreLogic, if you're at the higher end of the single family rental market, prices are up about 3% year over year. At the low end, they're up about 2.9%. So very little difference depending on your price tier and also very little difference depending on whether you're looking at an attached single family residence or,, detached family single family residence. All those are up right around 3% year over year. And that's a good sign. Again, you're dealing with a as your your listeners know, you're dealing with a slightly different tenant in a single family home than you are in a, an apartment. And a lot of these people who would have been buyers or opting to rent stands to reason that,, they'd rather rent a house, particularly if it's in a good school district or in a good neighborhood than an apartment, because they have needs.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:06) - Rents are extremely stable historically. They just sort of plod up slowly. What happened about two years ago, three years ago, with that 15% plus rent increase, that's an aberration.   Rick Sharga (00:28:19) - Yeah, that's a good point, Keith. If we're looking at 3% rental growth year over year right now in the single family rental market that tracks with historic normals, usually you're somewhere between 1 and 5% a year. So threes, you know, smack dab in the middle of all that. And the growth rates also vary wildly by markets., just kind of give you a range if you're looking at a single family rental property in Honolulu, in the city, year over year, you're up about 6%. If you're looking at a unit in Miami, Florida, you're down about 2.5%.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:50) - So rental growth rates.   Rick Sharga (00:28:52) - Rental growth rates. So really just depends on where you are. That's pretty much your range from a couple points down to I think Honolulu actually had the largest,, increase in the CoreLogic study. A lot of your listeners are probably interested in buying foreclosure properties.   Rick Sharga (00:29:07) - We're not seeing a lot of foreclosure activity. Still, we are starting to see a little weakness in consumers. When we met last week, we talked a little bit about the strength of consumer spending, but we also talked about increasing amounts of spending on credit cards. And we're seeing consumer delinquency rates increase in pretty much every aspect of consumer lending, whether it's a loan, whether it's a credit card debt, whether it's an auto loan, whether it's a home equity line of credit, whether it's a mortgage, a mortgage, delinquencies are up a little bit. The only category we're not seeing an increase in delinquencies right now is student loans. And my theory on that is that people have only recently had to start making payments again on student loans, and we don't have any data to show that they're going delinquent yet. But the delinquency numbers we need to take with a grain of salt, because many of them are most of them are early stage delinquency. So somebody missed a payment, but then they catch up before they get 60 or 90 days delinquent.   Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - But we are seeing trends that suggest more delinquencies. And if you have more delinquencies, that leads to more foreclosures. Mortgage delinquency rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, went up to about 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the historic average going back to the 1970s, which is as far back as the NBA goes, is about 5.25%. So we're still way below normal levels of delinquencies. As I mentioned, most of those are early stage delinquencies, and they're being resolved before they get more serious. Because of that, we don't have a lot of foreclosure activity. So this is no longer Keith government intervention. It's no longer government forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums. It's the fact that the economy's been so strong. Unemployment rates have a very strong correlation to mortgage delinquency rates. We got together last time I mentioned the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. I just told you that word delinquencies are at 3.8. Can't get much closer than that. And because of that, foreclosure activity is still down almost 30% from where we were in 2019 prior to the pandemic.   Rick Sharga (00:31:07) - And I should point out, the 2019 wasn't a particularly big year for foreclosures either. So I don't see us getting back to pre-pandemic levels of foreclosure activity until sometime next year. And what's important for people in this space to understand is that even though we're seeing roughly the same number of delinquencies that we saw back in 2019, fewer of those delinquent loans are going into foreclosure. Fewer of those foreclosures are getting as far as the auction, and even fewer of those are going back to the banks as REO properties or bank owned properties.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:40) - Delinquency occurs before foreclosure. We have low levels of both, and I would imagine that one substantial reason for that are these low fixed rate payments that so many people have. Minutes ago, you showed us that 90% of those with a mortgage have a rate in the fives or less. And then oftentimes when we talk about these sorts of things, we don't even consider the fact that more than 4 in 10 homeowners are free and clear. They don't have any mortgage at all. So it's difficult for people to get in trouble.   Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - Yeah. And when they do get in trouble, what's really a saving grace for a lot of these people? And I believe the reason we're seeing fewer foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions is that there's $31 trillion in homeowner equity in the market, and 90% of borrowers in foreclosure have positive equity. A huge percentage of those have at least 20% equity. So what's happening interesting is that many, many of these borrowers are protecting their equity by selling their home before the foreclosure sale. If they get to foreclosure sale, they run the risk of losing all their equity, or at least the overwhelming majority of their equity.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:48) - That's a great point with how this really works.   Rick Sharga (00:32:50) - And so if you're looking to buy a distressed property, if you're looking to buy a foreclosure property, you really need to be working directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure rather than waiting for the auction. And certainly rather than waiting for the bank to repossess the home and resell it. And some recent data from a friend of mine@auction.com tracking some numbers from Adam Data.   Rick Sharga (00:33:15) - 55% of the distressed properties that were sold through from June through to September of last year were sold in that pre foreclosure period prior to the foreclosure auction. That's wildly different than we've been in in years past. So really important for anybody looking to buy distressed property, to consider moving upstream and working directly with that homeowner. And it's a win win. You can help that homeowner protect their equity, have some cash to make a fresh start with and, and typically buy a home in pretty good condition and a home that you need to be part of your rental portfolio. So just kind of recapping some of the stuff we talked about, Keith, both today and last week, I still think that from an economic standpoint, there's still at least a good possibility we might have a short, mild recession sometime later this year. I don't see unemployment going much higher than 5%. Even if we do have a recession, if we don't have a recession, we'll only see the economy slowed down a bit. It might be hard to tell the difference.   Rick Sharga (00:34:10) - I'm expecting the volume of home sales to go up. I think we bottomed out in 2023, but not by a lot. Maybe we see a 10% lift over last year, which would take us to roughly 4.4 million existing homes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 700,000 new homes sold, really just depends on how quickly builders bring inventory to market. But if I'm right and mortgage rates go down slowly over the second half of this year, we'll see more home buyers come to market more quickly than sellers. We don't see a lot of sellers come to market until we get interest rates down to about 5.5% or lower, which probably won't happen until 2025. So more buyers coming to market than sellers means the prices will continue to go up. We continue to see investors account for 25 to 30% of all residential purchases. So I think we'll continue to see a higher rate, partly because investors are active, partly because a lot of consumers are waiting for market conditions to improve, but that limited affordability in today's market conditions, I really do think means more demand for rental units.   Rick Sharga (00:35:14) - And I think foreclosure activity stays below normal levels for the rest of this year, and REO inventory bank repossessions are going to remain even lower for even longer. I don't think we see REO activity come back to more normal levels for at least a couple of years, so anybody looking to buy these properties really does need to be moving upstream in order to make those purchases.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:34) - Yeah, with low affordability, hence more demand for rentals. I've already noticed that the homeownership rate, which is somewhat of a trailing number here, has already fallen from 66% to 65.7%. And with low affordability, it seems that that homeownership rate could fall even more, meaning the rate of renters would be higher.   Rick Sharga (00:35:54) - A friend of mine always complains that the government's somehow beside behind all of these trends, one way or the other, and and wonders why, with all the government programs aimed at increasing homeownership, we haven't seen that homeownership rate increase much. And I think sometimes things said to the natural level and our homeownership rate, really for the last 30 years, has been somewhere between 64% and 66%.   Rick Sharga (00:36:19) - And that might just be what the natural level for homeownership is in the United States. Will it dip a little bit as people can't afford to buy a house? Probably. Probably will. When market conditions improve for buyers, will it go up a little bit? Probably. But we hit 70% homeownership back in 2006. And it turned out that was the bad number and that not everybody's ready financially for the kind of commitment that homeownership requires. And so I've always said that the key isn't getting everybody into a home. It's the sustainability of homeownership for people that that we do get into that house. One of the best days of your life is when you get the key to that house, and it has to be one of the worst days if you have to give it back. So I hope we all keep that in mind as we move forward.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:03) - That's right. Government incentives is in the past saying there's a $10,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. Oh, we're not in an era where we need help. On the demand side, all you're doing is driving up prices.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:14) - And I don't know that you're helping out anybody in that case. But I think with really overall, one big takeaway here, Rick, is that if you the listener, if you're waiting for prices to drop substantially sometime or for interest rates to drop substantially sometime, that might not be worth the wait. You could be waiting a long time.   Rick Sharga (00:37:32) - I do expect mortgage rates will decline. I don't really go back to the sub for rates we saw a few years ago, but they're going to decline slowly and they may not decline enough to offset rising home prices. I mean, you have to get your calculator out and and figure out how that math works for you. But you're absolutely right, Keith. And I tell people today, even with mortgage rates being where they are, if you find a house you love or you find a house that's a good investment and you pencil it out and the numbers work, don't wait because the opportunity costs can be severe and you could wind up missing out on a property that could either be a good cash flow unit for you on rental, or it could be a property that you wind up living in for the next 30 years.   Rick Sharga (00:38:13) - So don't be afraid of today's market. Just be very prudent and judicious in the way you approach it.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:19) - Well, Rick, get resuscitation of followers and the nation have been a beneficiary of your housing market intelligence expertise for quite a while now. If someone wants to engage with you in the CJ Patrick Company, who are those types of people and how could you help?   Rick Sharga (00:38:36) - I appreciate the opportunity. Most of the companies I work with or companies that provide services to lenders, anybody who has a business that's in the real estate or financial services markets, who would benefit from my coming in to share with them industry data, or has data themselves that they would like to get out into the marketplace? Anything data related really, I tend to specialize in. So market updates and market overviews and market. Analysis or things that I do on a pretty much daily basis for companies.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:07) - How can they engage with you?   Rick Sharga (00:39:08) - They can find our website, which is C.J. patrick.com. They can find me on Twitter. I hide there under my name, Rick, or reach out to me on LinkedIn.   Rick Sharga (00:39:17) - And if you reach out to me on on a social media channel, make sure that you mention you know me through Keith, and you're not some crazy Russian bot trying to hack into my personal information.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:27) - Well, then, Rick, it's been great having you back on the show.   Rick Sharga (00:39:30) - I'm sure we'll do it again sometime soon. Thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:39) - Yeah, terrific Intel there. In this episode, Rick said that to still expect a lower amount of sales going forward and expect modest property price appreciation. Every region of the nation is seeing price growth now. And by the way, you remember that late last year, I unveiled Gray's home price appreciation forecast for this year, stating that prices should rise 4% and here in Q2, I still like how that looks. There is not much distress with current homeowners, but if you're looking to scoop up a foreclosed property cheap, you better get aggressive and work directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure. Don't wait for that property to go to auction. Rick also said more demand for rental units is coming, and I encourage you to engage with Rick.   Keith Weinhold (00:40:30) - Let him know you heard about him through me. If you want to go deeper and engage with some of the services that he offers, perhaps you work for a real estate company or a demographic company. You can do that at C.J. patrick.com. But most of you, the listener is an individual investor. So check him out on X where his handle is Rick Sharga. He is Rick Sharga on LinkedIn. Big thanks to Rick Sharga today. Until next week I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 5 (00:41:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:41:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Today's book is: Is Grad School for Me? Demystifying the Application Process for First-Gen BIPOC Students (U California Press, 2024), by Dr. Yvette Martínez-Vu and Dr. Miroslava Chávez-García. It is the first book to provide first-generation, low-income, and nontraditional students of color with insider knowledge on how to consider and navigate graduate school. Is Grad School for Me? is a calling card and a corrective to the lack of clear guidance for historically excluded students navigating the onerous undertaking of graduate school—starting with asking if grad school is even a good fit. This essential resource offers step-by-step instructions on how to maneuver the admissions process before, during, and after applying. Unlike other guides, Is Grad School for Me? takes an approach that is both culturally relevant and community based. The book is packed with relatable scenarios, memorable tips, common myths and mistakes, sample essays, and templates to engage a variety of learners. With a strong focus on demystifying higher education and revealing the hidden curriculum, this guide aims to diversify a wide range of professions in academia, nonprofits, government, industry, entrepreneurship, and beyond. Our guest is: Dr. Yvette Martínez-Vu is a grad school and productivity coach and host of the globally top-rated Grad School Femtoring Podcast. She is also the co-editor of the best-selling Chicana M(other)work Anthology and founder of Grad School Femtoring, LLC, where she supports first-gen BIPOC folks in reaching their academic and personal goals. She is the co-author of Is Grad School for Me? Demystifying the Application Process for First-Gen BIPOC Students. Our co-guest is: Dr. Miroslava Chávez-García is Professor of History at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and is currently the Faculty Director of the UCSB McNair Scholars Program. She is author of Migrant Longing, States of Delinquency, and Negotiating Conquest. She is the co-author of Is Grad School for Me? Demystifying the Application Process for First-Gen BIPOC Students. Our host is: Dr. Christina Gessler, who is the creator and show host of the Academic Life podcast. She holds a PhD in history, which she uses to explore what stories we tell and what happens to those we never tell. Listeners may also like the episodes on this playlist: Black Women, Ivory Tower Presumed Incompetent Becoming the Writer You Already Are Managing Your Mental Health during the PhD process Your PhD Survival Guide A journey to the US for med school Welcome to Academic Life, the podcast for your academic journey—and beyond! Join us again to learn from more experts inside and outside the academy, and around the world. You can support the show by downloading and sharing episodes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

EXPLAINED: LAWSUIT Against The New York for 1099, Independent Contractors And Workers. (c)Copyright, 2021-2030Announcement: Legal Options for 1099 Workers and Independent Contractors in New YorkTo all 1099 workers and independent contractors in New York, listen up! You have the chance to take legal action concerning child support issues in the state.Introducing our initiative, Child Support Lawsuit Simplified. Our goal is to provide you with the tools and knowledge needed to effectively maneuver the legal landscape. We recognize the hurdles you might encounter, including instances of judicial misconduct at both state and federal levels.Our program isn't just about offering advice – it's about empowerment. We aim to empower you with strategies and techniques to advocate for your rights and navigate the complexities of child support disputes with confidence.Join us as we work to ensure fairness and justice in child support matters. Your voice matters, and we're here to support you every step of the way.Child Support Lawsuit Simplified. We teach you strategies and techniques to free yourself of judicial misconduct from the State and Federal. The guarantee is YOURS.

                                            Lawsuit Against New York for Child Support.                       ATTENTION, 1099 Workers and Independent Contractors.Legal Action against New York: A Vital Message for 1099 Workers and Independent Contractors.Attention all 1099 workers and independent contractors! You now have the opportunity to pursue legal action against the state of New York regarding child support matters.Our program, Child Support Lawsuit Simplified, aims to equip you with the necessary strategies and techniques to navigate through the complexities of the legal system. We understand the challenges you may face, including judicial misconduct from both state and federal levels.Our guarantee is simple: empowerment. We empower you to assert your rights and seek justice in child support disputes. With our guidance, you can liberate yourself from unfair treatment and ensure that your rights are upheld throughout the legal process.Take control of your situation today and join us in our mission to advocate for fair and just child support practices. Your rights matter, and we're here to help you protect them.

                                                          Avoid License Suspension:                                         Use This New Jersey Case in Any State!Child Support Lawsuit Simplified. We teach you strategies and techniques to free yourself of judicial misconduct from the State and Federal. The guarantee is YOURS.Facing a driver's license suspension due to unpaid child support can feel like an insurmountable obstacle, especially when the ability to work or attend school hangs in the balance. In this crucial video, I delve into how a landmark New Jersey case, Kavas vs. DMV of Mercer County, has set a precedent that can aid you in contesting similar suspensions across all 50 states. This case underscores the violation of due process and fundamental fairness in the automatic suspension of driver's licenses, a vital issue for anyone struggling with child support payments due to unemployment or illness.We explore the intricate balance between enforcing child support obligations and ensuring individuals retain their ability to earn a living. The ruling by Judge Mary Jacobson in 2019 has opened a pathway for fathers and families nationwide to challenge unjust suspensions, emphasizing the importance of due process and the right to a fair hearing. This video is not just a summary of the case but a comprehensive guide on applying its principles to fight for your rights in any state, offering a beacon of hope for those feeling trapped by the system. I also provide a detailed breakdown of child support as a federal program, highlighting the massive financial implications and the states leading in child support collections.Your support fuels our research and content creation, helping us bring these invaluable insights to you. If you find this video educational, please consider donating to our channel. Every contribution, no matter the size, makes a significant difference. For personalized guidance, don't hesitate to schedule a consultation, and for more empowering content, subscribe to our channel. Together, we can navigate the complexities of family law, advocating for fairness and justice in the child support system.Support the Show.Login into our => https://childsupport.newzenler.com

                                     Season 6 Episode 9 -   Essential Information for Fathers.In "Child Support vs. TANF: What Fathers Must Know," we dive into the intricate world of family law, focusing on the distinctions and connections between Child Support and Temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF). If you're a father navigating these waters, understanding these concepts isn't just beneficial—it's crucial. Our discussion brings clarity to how federal assistance impacts child support obligations, and we detail historical legislation like the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act to elucidate the evolution of welfare and child support.Our exploration is not just theoretical; we ground our insights in real-world applications and legislative frameworks, such as Title 4D of the Social Security Act and specific Supreme Court cases like Blessing vs. Freestone. We aim to empower you with knowledge, whether you're facing judicial challenges or seeking to understand your rights and responsibilities in the realm of family law.For those seeking deeper engagement, we invite you to connect with us via email at Chris_h29@protonmail.com and explore further content on our website. Together, let's navigate the complexities of child support and empower ourselves with the knowledge and confidence to advocate for our rights and responsibilities.Remember, understanding your legal standing and options is the first step towards effective self-representation and achieving the best possible outcomes for you and your family. Join us on this journey, and let's unlock the doors to legal empowerment and self-advocacy.

              What Is The difference? Understanding Custody and Child Support.Email: Chrish289@protonmail.com            (c)Copyright, 2021-2030Child support is the financial aid one parent provides to the other for the upbringing of their child. It encompasses various expenses essential for the child's well-being, including education, healthcare, and basic living needs. Custody, on the other hand, entails both legal and physical responsibility for the child's care and decision-making. It determines where the child resides primarily and who holds the authority to make important decisions regarding their upbringing.While child support primarily deals with financial contributions, custody arrangements dictate the practical aspects of the child's daily life and upbringing. Both child support and custody are crucial components of ensuring the overall welfare and stability of the child's upbringing.

                                            Sue Credit Agencies for Child Support Errors: Discover the groundbreaking Supreme Court ruling that empowers consumers to take legal action against credit bureaus for inaccuracies in child support reporting! In this pivotal video, I delve into the monumental decision by Justice Neil Gorsuch, revealing how individuals can now challenge federal agencies like TransUnion and Equifax, ensuring their child support records are accurate. This ruling, stemming from the case Department of Revenue vs. Kertz, dated February 8, 2024, marks a significant victory for consumer rights under the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Learn the critical steps to file a lawsuit against credit agencies, the essentials of PRO SE litigation, and how this Supreme Court judgment could affect your child support case. Whether you're battling errors on your credit report or seeking a refresh on child support procedures, this video offers a wealth of knowledge aimed at empowering you to navigate the complexities of family law and judicial misconduct confidently.Don't let inaccuracies tarnish your financial reputation. Understand your right to dispute child support errors and the pathway to holding credit bureaus accountable. I also share insights into self-representation, emphasizing the importance of constitutional laws in protecting your rights. For further support and detailed guides on tackling child support challenges, consider donating to our research efforts or scheduling a discussion. Stay connected with our community on social media and access exclusive resources tailored to aid your journey through family law intricacies.

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down PCE data, Macy's store closure news and the exposure in CRE, and Trepp's latest figures for CMBS delinquencies. Across property types, we review stories about loans heading to special servicing, property valuation reductions, and discounted payoffs. We also share a review of REIT earnings. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Economic update (0:23) - Macy's store closures (4:50) - CMBS delinquency report (9:35) - REIT earnings (13:38) - Office crabgrass (19:04) - Multifamily sales (28:27) - Retail news (30:56) - Lodging (37:44) - Industrial and self-storage (44:32) - Shoutouts (46:27) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Mac Shelton — founding partner at Sweetbay Capital, which focuses on multifamily value-add deals in Virginia and the Carolinas — joins host Slocomb Reed on the Best Ever Show. In this episode, Mac discusses investing in student rentals before reading Joe Fairless's Book — the Best Ever Apartment Syndication Book — and how the lack of scalability in student rentals led him and his partner to pivot to multifamily syndication. From niching down and investing in familiar markets to overcoming tenant delinquency, Mac shares his experience buying multifamily deals in the challenging landscape that defined 2023. Mac Shelton | Real Estate Background  Founding Partner at Sweetbay Capital Portfolio: 131 units with 60 more under contract Based in Raleigh, NC Say hi to him at www.sweetbay-capital.com Linkedin   Sponsors: Monarch Money My1031Pros

We begin 2024 over 30 years ago, with an unlikely crossing of paths among the beachside communities of Los Angeles. Troy Garity is an actor and activist, and was in the Barbershop films. This is the only interview where no one asks him about his famous mom.   GET THE BONUS EPISODE ON PATREON: https://patreon.com/POWERFULTRUTHANGELS   LISTEN ON APPLE PODCASTS!!  https://apple.co/2UetHQb Other Audio Platforms: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4w3Fpl9Y4Gb8sxCTiBpBac Castbox: https://bit.ly/2vsZBQn   FOLLOW US: Powerful Truth Angels: https://www.instagram.com/powerfultruthangels 2TONE: https://www.instagram.com/alex2tone Troy: https://www.instagram.com/troyog 7EQUIS: https://www.7equis.netSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jim Geraghty is back! Today, Jim and Greg spend the good martini giving a short overview of Jim's trip to Ukraine and what he learned there. Don't miss Monday's 3 Martini Lunch, when they devote their Labor Day episode to the good, bad, and crazy things that Jim observed in Ukraine. They also recoil as the percentages of Americans delinquent on credit card debt, auto loan debt, and and personal loan debt are at their highest levels in more than a decade. Finally, they react to another moment where Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell seems to freeze during a press conference, and Jim says McConnell's team owes the American people a full, honest explanation of the senator's health.Please visit out great sponsors:4Patriothttps://4Patriots.comUse code MARTINI to get 10% off your purchase.