SA For FAs

Guest podcaster Jason Kirsch, CFP(R) discusses increasing demand for speculation among his younger clients. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The huge and rapid across-the-board gains of the current market make now the most relevant time to remind investors of the protective value of asset allocation. This podcast (5:46) argues that we should reduce risk and aspire to steady returns. While we cannot predict the future — indeed, because we cannot predict the future — we should plan our finances in such a way as to avoid calamitous outcomes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ron Surz’s new book “Baby Boomer Investing in the Perilous Decade of the 2020s” offers guidance on protecting lifetime savings that now reside in the crossfires of financial disaster. He is making the book available for free this week, through May 28, on Amazon. In this podcast (21:34), Surz explains why he believes the 2020s are a time of heightened risk, how boomers, who are most exposed, can protect themselves from this risk, and how even those who have saved insufficiently can live a dignified retirement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Intel’s detractors criticize the company for falling behind competitors in data-center sales, for reducing buybacks and for declining profit margins. But it is when a company is down that its stock price provides an attractive entry point. This podcast (8:05) argues that Intel’s problems are fixable and that its new leadership appears to be busy fixing them now. And in the meantime, its stock sells at a modest price-to-earnings ratio of 12, a fraction of the industry average. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Veteran investment research Laurence (Larry) Siegel’s response to all the doomsday stories in the daily news is his book “Fewer, Richer, Greener,” which offers a long view of the progress and economic growth our world has known, despite the proverbial bumps on the road. This podcast (20:40) challenges Siegel with a bit of the gloom and doom that we’re seeing. The financial analyst concedes that a sober view of markets is justified, but defends the view that the broader economy is progressing. In this interview and in his book, Siegel prefers to light a candle than to curse the darkness.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Fed’s interventionist policies are the primary source of our current “everything rally,” and it is this same factor that will eventually upend it. This podcast (7:50) argues that discounted cash flows and other tools of fundamental analysis are compromised when the so-called risk-free rate of money has been openly distorted for so long, and why other factors are worthy of consideration. It also suggests that investors always be prepared for risk-off scenarios. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At a time when oil majors are facing increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, a key question for investors concerns not which future technologies will prevail but who is helping these companies get rid of their methane right now. This podcast (6:40) argues that Baker Hughes’s solutions are performing right now in an area of rising regulatory scrutiny and hence growing market importance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ambev (ABEV) operates in a country reeling under pandemic, but Brazilians continue to drink beer, revenue is growing and investor fear of Brazil will eventually subside as a commodity boom lifts its currency. This podcast (7:28) argues that Ambev is already increasing revenue while cyclical factors should help it cut costs, fueling a renewed look by investors at an emerging-markets company with a popular product and solid customer base. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I have no regrets about missing out on a stock on my watchlist that moved up 700 percent this past year, but feel more regret for a value stock I failed to snatch before it moved up 25 percent. This podcast (6:21) argues that past experience, which in my case has shown that the market ultimately recognizes value, encourages me to hold cash while searching for value stocks with long runways, enabling me to enjoy the tranquility of a portfolio requiring just mild supervision. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The contemporary prophet Harry Dent Jr. says the stock market will collapse this month. The financial newsletter writer even added that he will quit his job if he is wrong. This podcast (6:21) warns that even the most brilliant economic sages – like the great American economist Irving Fisher – falter when they make predictions, because their vast knowledge does not endow them with this ability. Hoping to cure investors of their innate credulity, I summon the story of the Witch of Endor, which memorably illustrates the fraudulence of acts of divination. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From Ancient Rome to Argentina under Peron to the U.S. over the past two decades, extreme spending unmoored to tax revenue has a hoary history ill befitting the title “Modern” Monetary Theory. This podcast (7:42) argues that MMT is not a theory awaiting adoption but rather a description of the bipartisan policy of the United States for some time now, though never more so than under its current “go big” moniker. But will “go big” become “go bankrupt?”  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Argentine conglomerate Cresud lies at the intersection of real estate and commodities, sectors that tend to do well in periods of changing inflation expectations, and its P/E is just 5. This podcast (7:47) explores why the stock seems to be especially well positioned to thrive in the current period, while raising questions about management and deeper concerns about the political and economic environment that weighs down Argentina. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Government stimulus and Fed indifference are stoking an investor fear of inflation that has been dormant for decades. This podcast (6:07) looks at research by investment strategist Michael Crook indicating that a global-equity portfolio may offer the most protection against inflation. It also contains surprising findings about gold’s relationship to price changes and interest rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The lesson I take from the GameStop affair is that the stock market does not necessarily reward investment sophistication but is exquisitely responsive to investment speculation. This podcast (4:29) argues that no matter how smart you as an individual may be, your chances of success in the stock market are overwhelmingly influenced by how dumb everyone else is. To succeed in such a market, we must take a self-consciously long-term approach, as if we’re purchasing shares for our grandchildren. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The dollar is worth about one-twenty-sixth of its value a century ago, and loose fiscal and monetary policies portend a deepening of the trend. This podcast (8:03) looks at the few currencies that have held up well to the dollar over a decade or more, reflecting underlying monetary and fiscal discipline. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Financial advisor work should be regarded as a helping profession. This podcast (5:34) frames that notion via a few inspirational quotes from poets Edwin Markham and Rudyard Kipling, and Israel’s first prime minister David Ben-Gurion and anthropologist Margaret Mead.

Analyst Marc Gerstein argues that senior secured loans are a safer bet than junk bonds, but even he considers them aggressive. This podcast (7:52) favors privately owned real estate as a source of income for those comfortable with that commitment, but suggests that accepting today’s low yields is a better choice than accepting a level of risk that can ruin your retirement.

A new paper by David Blake of London’s Pensions Institute explains how nudges and peer-group networks further people along toward greater retirement security. This podcast (6:56) argues that instead of seeking peer-group validation, it would be far more helpful if younger people were paired with older people, a pairing financial advisors are uniquely capable of making, to everyone’s advantage.

The story of America’s first celebrity economist, Irving Fisher, should cure anybody still milling about for expert predictions. This podcast (7:06) argues that investors, instead of spinning their heads listening to other people’s predictions, would do well to secure for themselves predictable income.

The Society of Actuaries has released a report on over a dozen significant retirement risks. This podcast (8:32) suggests that investors needn’t sweat such lengthy checklists if they get the big issues right before entering retirement, and proposes a major issue people ought to concern themselves with but which nary gets a mention.

Warren Buffett offered some retirement advice a year ago, little noticed at the time, which is more relevant now than then. This podcast (7:24) recalls the Oracle of Omaha’s post-annual-letter CNBC interview, where Buffett advised people take appropriate due diligence on just what liabilities they’re “walking into.”

The “The Baby Boomer Investing Show,” produced by Ron Surz and Kathy Tarochione, offers a perspective void of Wall Street sloganeering, combined with a rare financial sophistication. This podcast (8:34) considers why the lifecycle matters so much, explaining why near and new retirees shouldn’t risk what they cannot afford to lose. 

MassMutual’s Bob Carroll offers a front-row view of his firm’s response to the coronavirus crisis, with regard to retirement savers and advisors managing workplace plans. In the interview (20:32), Carroll shares a touching story of how the crisis brought competing advisors together to help their community.

Investors need to step up and do the hard work of saving their own capital for retirement. This podcast (6:06) suggests that the calendar, that is to say the passage of time, is a less reliable guide to success than human effort and accomplishment.

The Financial Times reports that Calpers is seeking to juice returns through the use of leverage. This podcast (6:30) suggests a pension fund shouldn’t borrow heavily to goose up returns, especially as big institutions do not win all their bets. The conservative approach adopted by the Yale Endowment does far more to deliver returns and ensure the payment of pension benefits.

A slogan in retirement investing holds that investors who reach a certain level of success are free to reduce risk. This podcast (7:09) suggests that this idea merits quantitative definition and practical implementation, to ensure that future retirees do not face the same sense of impoverishment as the Class of 2020, who have seen their portfolios plunge at the time their retirement has required portfolio withdrawals.

The advantage of financial advice is the outsider’s perspective, which is the reason so many professional fields of counseling, coaching and training continue to expand. This podcast (6:02) argues that just as a prisoner cannot free himself, so too it is the outsider that can provide the discipline or the method to get the person to make progress in the area of life he or she is challenged by.

Harbor Crest Wealth Advisors’ Mike Hennessy discusses Roth conversions, gifting strategies and qualified HAS funding distribution, planning strategies of particular value in 2020. This podcast (9:02) suggests there are creative planning strategies advisors can employ to help clients during these uniquely challenging times.

A public service announcement meant to educate the public on the dangers of texting and driving reminds us that that all forms of distractedness, including financial, are dangerous. This podcast (6:56) suggests that financial advisors have a public-service role to play when the fact that financial calamity happens to 50 percent of retirees doesn’t impact the behavior of the distracted masses fumbling their finances.

Harbor Crest Wealth Advisors’ Mike Hennessy provides a big-picture view of the mortgage market’s interaction with Fed funds and the 10-year Treasury. This podcast (6:22) explains the host of factors influencing mortgage rates, including the surprising reason his own refi effort fell apart.

Harbor Crest Wealth Advisors’ Mike Hennessy discusses a trade that lost nearly two decades of performance in March, and claimed the lives of two hedge funds. This podcast (6:36) suggests that clients holding alternative investments or structured notes are likely already exposed to complex derivative strategies, and that advisors should therefore know about the workings of trades like variance swaps that can magnify an already volatile environment.

Seeking Alpha contributor Jim Sloan’s article, “’A Little Ice Age’ Is Upon Us,” is the guide investors need to the reality of our new era. This podcast (8:15) concurs with Sloan that there is a future in stock-market investing, but investors need to take a different approach to decision making. Investing has returned to becoming a long-term proposition, where due diligence matters, where top-line growth without corporate window-dressing returns to its former importance.

An investing culture geared toward aggressive stock allocation fails to consider the risk of insolvency that spikes precisely at times such as the present. This podcast (6:20) suggests that retirement investors make stability as important a goal as growth to correct this common and fundamental problem.

With job losses shattering records in the wake of the coronavirus, an obvious question advisors are thinking about is: ‘What about mine?’ This podcast (6:45) suggests that now is a time that financial advisors can have a greater impact than ever before - by learning, teaching and leading. Helping people see that they have a financial future is what will make advisors’ own futures viable.

The path to recovery consists primarily of these three things: the success of restrictions that slow the progress of the coronavirus; government action to economically sustain businesses and households; and renewed employment that will set a pace for household spending. This podcast (6:57) argues that the lengthy and painful process imposed by today’s economic crisis will have the effective of turning “investors” into real investors, who buy for the long-term, knowing what they’re buying and why, and what they’re avoiding and why. 

There’s no time like a downturn to revisit “sequence of returns” risk, which holds that investment performance is dependent on returns the market generates at the point of retirement. This podcast (6:56) suggests there are unpredictable occasions like the present market crisis, where anything less than a 100 percent assurance that retirees’ expenses are covered, would be calamitous.

A newly minted carona-retiree laments the harsh impact on his family, finances and work prospects. Looked at differently though, we can see that he’s actually doing great. This podcast (6:56) suggests that new retirees are naturally wracked with anxiety over this big life change and that how well one does in retirement is highly subject to interpretation.

The huge run-up in debt, Federal Reserve activism and a trend towards economic nationalism in the last decade may be the factors that most effect the current one, with the coronavirus pandemic merely triggering the shift. This podcast (8:42) suggests that a squeeze on consumer staples and agricultural commodities could trigger inflation, and a surge in inflation could prevent the Fed from easing financial conditions, which could trigger a debt crisis. 

This crisis is different from others in its details, but this we can say from a historical perspective: The doom people have dreaded has never materialized. We’ve always moved on. This podcast (8:12) suggests that what makes market and economic crises so harsh is that they activate fight-or-flight responses, but in scenarios where we cannot fight and have nowhere to flee. It is precisely for this reason that we must distinguish between factors we have influence over versus things that are beyond our control.

Five years after the enactment of major retirement reform in the UK, the Association of British Insurers presents an evaluation. This podcast (7:05) notes that the reforms were intended to promote “pension freedom,” but the report is now pushing for the use of financial advice to keep people from misusing that freedom. 

Mayport Wealth Management’s Adam Grossman offers an anatomy of the type of client reactions he’s seeing in the current market meltdown, along with analysis of value in the muni bond market and an incremental approach to stock-buying. In this podcast interview (17:53), the Boston-based advisor also offers insight into investment rules of thumb, his approach to helping clients clarify goals and his thoughts on correcting America’s dearth of retirement savings.

In research on the end-of-life regrets of elderly Americans, the trip they did not take was one of the highest-ranked items. This podcast (5:34) suggests the extra time in quarantine with those closest to us can guide us to how we can achieve a more ideal retirement, one that more precisely defines which pursuits generate the greatest “happiness” returns. 

I recall an incident where a senior analyst at a major investment research firm was “right” about the Fed – and took a maximalist position at least eight years too early in a career-ending move. This podcast (6:33) suggests investors determine their central tendency – towards fear or greed – and balance against it via asset allocation.

CNBC ran an article a week ago arguing that the coronavirus should make people rethink the idea of retiring abroad based on the quality of overseas healthcare and the inability to get Medicare coverage. This podcast (6:31) suggests these two arguments are fairly easy to overcome, but that the true coronavirus critique of retirement abroad is that in the social distancing caused by this pandemic, many a family are drawing closer than ever before, something that international borders would block.

The Beatles’ classic ballad “Yesterday” offers some perspective on today’s falling markets. This podcast (6:08) takes comfort in the Beatles’ hint that the troubles that once seemed so far away only look as though they’re here to stay, and offers further thoughts about the British band’s strange notion that “yesterday came suddenly.”