Downballot Counts

Democrats lost control of the House Nov. 8 but exceeded expectations under new congressional maps that ensure the House will be in play for the rest of the decade, according to the party's top redistricting strategist. "There were a sufficient number of competitive seats on the board because of fair maps and the House is now going to be competitive for the decade," Kelly Burton, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said on Bloomberg Government's "Downballot Counts" podcast with Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux. Republicans probably will begin the 118th Congress next January with 222 House seats, a net gain of nine seats that was sufficient to overturn the Democratic majority but was below the big historical gains the opposition party usually makes in a midterm election. Democrats blocked a GOP "red wave" in part by faring well in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where redistricting commissions or courts drew new congressional maps and Republicans had weak top-of-ticket nominees for governor, and also in Illinois and Nevada, where Democratic maps achieved their partisan goals. Republicans dominated in Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis's landslide re-election helped his party win 20 of 28 districts under a map he signed. But Republicans also won six districts favoring President Joe Biden in New York, where a special master's map replaced a proposal from the Democratic legislature that was invalidated as an impermissible partisan gerrymander. Redistricting litigation is pending in states including North Carolina, where Democrats and Republicans won seven seats apiece under an interim, one-election map that was approved by the Democratic-majority state Supreme Court after it rejected the Republican legislature's map as so partisan it violated the state constitution. The US Supreme Court on Dec. 7 will hear oral arguments in Moore v. Harper, an appeal by North Carolina Republican legislators who are advocating for the "independent state legislature" theory under which state legislatures should be able to enact redistricting plans immune from judicial review in state court. "Redistricting is not over, and it's not going to end anytime soon," Burton said. Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Election Day is finally here! With so many competitive races, and control of the House and Senate up for grabs, there will be a lot to watch on Tuesday and the days that follow. To help you know what to focus on, and when, Bloomberg Government's Emily Wilkins, Greg Giroux and Zach C. Cohen used the latest Downballot Counts to walk through each hour of polls closing (based on when the latest polls close in the state) and what races can tell us about the direction of the night. From the East Coast to the farthest reaches of Alaska, Greg, Zach, and Emily review which races will have quick reporting and which could take a while. They also get into weird quirks of certain states so you know whether a Democratic or Republican lead is real or just a factor of how ballots are counted. Plus, they discuss the races that won't be called on Election Night and when you can expect final results. So grab some pizza and the caffeinated beverage of your choice and get ready. Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Women are still underrepresented in major political office after steady but slow gains: they account for just 28% of members of Congress and 18% of governors, the highest representation so far in history. How female candidates fare in the Nov. 8 election will depend in part on how well incumbents perform. Kelly Dittmar, a political scientist and scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, spoke about this with Bloomberg Government's Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux on the "Downballot Counts" podcast. "The story about how women incumbents fare is important" in part because it's "determining where we land in terms of women's representation," Dittmar said. Some women first elected to the House in 2018, a good year for Democratic women, or in 2020, when Republican women did well, have difficult re-election bids. Several others retired, sought other office, or were defeated in the primary. The 583 Democratic and Republican women who sought House seats in 2022 is “exactly the same” as the record number from 2020, Dittmar said, though the number of women who won their nominations fell to 259 from the record of 298 set in 2020. Democratic women continue to lead Republican women, though the GOP has closed the gap from 2018. "It's still high historically, but we haven't seen that level of increase that we saw in the last cycles," she said. And while the number of women House nominees decreased, "I wouldn't raise a red flag about a decline, but just to say that we aren't seeking a pace of increase for women." In contests for governor, Dittmar said there's a “fairly good” chance for states to top the record of nine women governors first set in 2004 and matched today. Massachusetts Democrat Maura Healey and Arkansas Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders are strongly favored to succeed male governors in their states. A woman will also succeed a man as Arizona governor, though it's not clear if it will be Republican Kari Lake or Democrat Katie Hobbs. "Governor is a huge point of progress for women this cycle," Dittmar said. "When we're talking about being in stasis for women candidates, that's not true at the gubernatorial level." Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Bloomberg Government's Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux could talk about congressional campaigns all day. But as you likely have other things to do, the latest episode of Downballot Counts features the program's first lightning speed round. Greg and Emily highlight 12 interesting races to watch in 12 minutes. They're not necessarily the most competitive races — although some of them are — but each has a unique aspect that will tell us more about voters, trends and the direction of the country. With producer David Schultz on the airhorn to signal the end of each 60 second block, this podcast will get you caught up on the campaign trail in less time than it takes to order twice through the Chick-fil-A drive thru. Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

You can learn a lot about how a campaign is shaking out by looking at what the candidates are saying in their TV ads. Heading into this fall's midterm elections, Republicans are emphasizing inflation and the President's unpopularity, while Democrats want to talk about abortion rights and dispel any hint of the "Defund the Police" movement. On this episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Greg Giroux and Emily Wilkins talk about why the parties are zeroing in on these particular messages, and about whether anything that happens on Capitol Hill between now and Nov. 8 will really matter at the ballot box. Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Much has been made about the seeming shift in momentum toward Democrats as we head into the midterm elections this fall. But the University of Virginia's J. Miles Coleman, an editor of the widely read Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter, says Republicans are still in good position to pick up at least a dozen seats in the House and take back control of the lower chamber. Coleman talks with Bloomberg Government's Greg Giroux and Emily Wilkins about why this is and why the Senate is essentially a coin flip with two months until election day. Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

If midterms are supposed to be bad for the party in the White House, why are Democrats gaining confidence ahead of this November's elections? Surprisingly large fundraising hauls are one reason. Weaker than expected Republican Senate nominees are another. And a third reason is that the President's dismal approval ratings don't seem to be hurting downballot candidates as much as one might expect, according to Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections. Gonzales joins Bloomberg Government's Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux to talk about these dynamics and why he thinks Democrats' polling figures will gravitate downward toward Biden's as election day gets closer. Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

We're now in the thick of congressional primary season, and it's still looking like Democrats will struggle to hold onto the House in November, and maybe also to the Senate. But beyond the makeup of next year's Congress, this year's elections may also determine whether former President Trump's can regain the White House--and whether current President Biden will even stand for reelection. Downballot Counts hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux breakdown what we've learned so far from this spring's primaries and where we're heading. Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Disinformation and its impact on elections has been a hot topic for years now. But despite this, little attention has been paid to how this plays out in Spanish-language media. On today's episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux speak with Bloomberg Government reporter Maria Curi about where Spanish-language disinformation is coming from and what effect it's having on the Latino vote. Maria explains why falsehoods spread longer and faster in the Spanish-speaking community and why it's difficult for government regulators to combat it. Greg and Kyle also break down the series of primary elections taking place throughout the rest of this month, including a big contest tomorrow in Ohio that could be a test of the former President's power. Produced by David Schultz, with assistance from Alex Clearfield and Macarena Carrizosa Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

With the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, rising inflation, and the resurgence of Covid-19, 2021 was a difficult year for President Biden to say the least. This could seriously imperil Democrats' chances in next year's midterm elections if the President can't turn his fortunes around before November. On this episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad talk about why Democrats had a disappointing year and what next year could bring. They also talk with Kelly Burton, head of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, about the fight over redrawing the country's lines.

On this episode of Bloomberg Government's Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux talk with a Republican redistricting consultant about the decennial battle between the two parties over the shape of the country's congressional districts.

On today's episode of Bloomberg Government's podcast, Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux interview Jessica Taylor, a senior author of the 50th edition of the revered Almanac of American Politics. Taylor talks about being the first woman to hold this post and also analyzes the small number Senate races that could determine who controls Washington after next year.

In 2018, Liuba Grechen Shirley made waves when she successfully petitioned the Federal Election Commission to allow her to use campaign funds to pay for child care. The Long Island Democrat ultimately lost her race against then-Congressman Peter T. King, but now her full-time job is to make it easier for mothers to get elected across the country. Shirley founded the Vote Mama Foundation and she speaks with podcast hosts Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad about the many obstacles that prevent working mothers from running for public office. Greg and Kyle also go over the most recent campaign finance disclosures and find that anti-Trump Republicans seem to be raking in the dough.

Last year's elections didn't go quite as well as Democrats had hoped, and one group of centrists in the party just issued a report looking at why. On this episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux speak with Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) about how he thinks his party should avoid losing its slim House majority next year. Also, Greg breaks down exactly what ranked-choice voting is and why it seems to be catching on. Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

On this episode of Downballot Counts, Kyle and Greg look at the political ramifications of redistricting and reapportionment, which will merge some congressional districts and force incumbents to battle each other to stay in power. Also, we hear from Tom Lopach, the CEO of the nonprofit nonpartisan Voter Participation Center, about recent legislation in the states to restrict voting access.

Nearly half a dozen Republicans Senators will not be seeking reelection next year, with more retirement announcements potentially on the way. On this episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux look at whether this is a good or bad thing for the Grand Old Party. And we also feature a special St. Patrick's Day-themed political trivia question. Erin go Bragh!

We're just a few months in to the 2022 election cycle and the dynamics at play are already starting to look fascinating. Democrats have two special election winners running for full terms in the Senate, while Republicans are dealing with at least three open Senate seats--and possibly more. Downballot Counts hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux break down what we know so far and talk about why, at this moment, neither party appears to have the upper hand.

Downballot Counts hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux break down the results from last week's Georgia Senate runoff elections. They say Democrats were victorious because turnout in these contests far exceeded anything previously seen in a runoff so soon after a general election.

Bloomberg Government's Emily Wilkins is in Georgia covering tomorrow's all-important Senate runoff elections. She talks with hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux about how we got here, the similarities between Democrats' and Republicans' closing messages, and the challenges of holding campaign rallies during a pandemic.

Despite decades of work to educate more Black lawyers, the percentage of Black associates and partners in firms across the U.S. remain very low, and well below those of other professional careers. Big Law firms across the board are ramping up social justice efforts as the nation engages in a renewed dialogue on race and equality. But some have accused firms of using minorities as “diversity props” to impress clients and misrepresent their inclusiveness to potential employees. So what are law firms doing to fix their lack of diversity? Hosts Adam Allington and Lisa Helem, along with reporters Ayanna Alexander, Ruiqi Chen, and Meghan Tribe, interviewed lawyers across the industry, from corporate general counsels to top Am Law 200 lawyers to current law students, each sharing their experience navigating the legal space as a person of color. We try to answer what law firms are doing to recruit more diverse classes of lawyers, and how they are addressing barriers to entry for Black lawyers.

Regardless of the final outcomes of the still-uncalled House races or the two upcoming Senate runoffs in Georgia, it's clear both chambers of Congress will have razor-thin partisan margins next year. On the latest episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux talk about what this will mean for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and whoever it is that will become Senate Majority Leader in the new Congress.

It's Nov. 16, and there are still a handful of uncalled House races. But it's becoming more clear, now that a few weeks have passed since the elections, that partisan margins in both houses of Congress will be razor thin. On this episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux discuss where there are still undecided races and why Democrats underperformed in this year's Congressional elections.

Contrary to popular belief, the results of last week's elections weren't as far off from final polling projections as they initially appeared. But the discrepancy was large enough that it indicates a fundamental flaw in the way polling is conducted, according to Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock with the firm Global Strategy Group. On this post-election episode of Downballot Counts, we speak with Pollock about his industry's painful soul-searching and about what this election says about where the country's two parties are at.

We're about 36 hours or so before polls close and election results start to come in. But it's not too soon to start analyzing what this historic election cycle has meant. On this episode of Downballot Counts, Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux talk about the forces that shaped 2020's congressional races and about which races they'll be paying close attention to tomorrow night.

You can tell a lot about the shape of an election by tracking where candidates are spending their time in the race's final days. That's according to Nathan L. Gonzales, a political prognosticator and publisher of the Inside Elections newsletter. We speak with Nathan about how this election cycle has turned out and about what one can glean from watching the movements of the President, Vice President, and other senior administration officials in the coming days.

We're two weeks from election day and roughly a dozen GOP-held Senate seats are competitive, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Hosts Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad speak with the Report's Senate editor Jessica Taylor about how we got here and whether Republicans' hopes for holding on to the Senate really are as dim as they seem.

Recent fundraising disclosures confirmed what polling numbers have hinted at: South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham is in the fight of his life. On this week's episode of Downballot Counts, we talk about how Graham's Democratic opponent, Jamie Harrison, shattered fundraising records during the third quarter of this year.

Political handicappers long predicted that North Carolina's Senate race would be one of the closest of the 2020 election cycle. But almost no one could have foreseen that its neighbor, South Carolina, would also see a Senate race turn into a dead heat. On today's Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux examine the difficult reelection campaigns of Republicans Senators Thom Tillis and Lindsey Graham, and also breakdown a campaign ad playing right now in Colorado.

With five weeks to go before the election, polling data is looking pretty grim for Republicans up and down the ballot. Today we hear from Glen Bolger, a major Republican pollster and founder of the firm Public Opinion Strategies, on what his party needs to do to turn this trend around or at least mitigate it heading into Election Day.

On this episode of Downballot Counts, we speak with Joe Biden's top pollster. He says comparisons between current polls and those from four years ago indicate there are fewer undecided voters now than there were back then.

Primary season is all but over and now Democrats and Republicans face off against each other in earnest. Hosts Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad break down the state of play with less than two months to go and they explain why Democrats are in a favorable position heading into the home stretch.

The Bay State is the center of the political universe this week, with several primary elections there that may unseat incumbents with decades of experience in Congress. We speak with Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic consultant in Massachusetts, about what's at stake in tomorrow's primaries and about who is likely to come out on top.

To avoid a blowout in this November's elections, Republicans will need to revive the nearly extinct tradition of ticket splitting, former GOP congressman Tom Davis says. That's because many GOP candidates are running in swing states that Democratic nominee Joe Biden is expected to win. On this episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux speak with the former Virginia lawmaker about why ticket splitting is such a rarity these days and about why he thinks some threatened GOP incumbents are not in as much trouble as many believe.

The campaign season shifts into a new phase with the political conventions starting this week. And despite running against an incumbent president, Joe Biden has a very strong lead, according to a recent cluster of polls. Hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux look at whether Biden could have a so-called "coattail effect" and about who to watch during this week's Democratic convention.

Quentin James, the founder and president of The Collective PAC, discusses his organization’s effort to elect more black candidates to federal, state and local offices. He also talks about the generational change taking place among black political leaders. (Note: This interview originally aired on the June 29 episode of Downballot Counts.)

Primary season is far from over, but we’ve already seen an above-average number of incumbent congressmen fail to win their party’s nomination. We may see more in the coming weeks, with two members of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s so-called “Squad” facing strong intra-party challengers, and a member of the Kennedy family dynasty going after a sitting Senator. Hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux break down the dynamics at play here and also look at the primary for an open Senate seat in Kansas, where the campaign ads are no-holds-barred.

Bloomberg Government politics reporter Emily Wilkins discusses second-quarter fundraising reports and how Democrats’ benefit from significant fundraising advantages in the House and Senate races.

Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions is fighting for his political life in this week's Alabama GOP primary runoff. Hosts Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad breakdown this race along with other primaries in Texas and Maine.

Quentin James, the founder and president of The Collective PAC, discusses his organization’s effort to elect more black candidates to federal, state and local offices. He also talks about what it would mean for Joe Biden to choose a black woman as his running mate.

Austin Chambers, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, joins the latest episode of Downballot Counts to discuss the GOP's heightened focus on state legislative races this year. And Hosts Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad talk about Tuesday's primaries, with several longtime incumbents struggling to win their own party's nomination.

Hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux take questions on the Georgia primaries, whether we'll have more or fewer Republican woman holding office this time next year, and the campaign impact of “Defund The Police” in Downballot Counts' inaugural mailbag episode.

This is the first time in 20 years that a presidential election will be held in the same year as the decennial census, which means that whichever party wins in statehouses this November will have a huge advantage in redrawing legislative districts. Jessica Post, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, talks with hosts Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad about her efforts to win state legislative races and set the party up well for the next round of redistricting.

Tuesday marks the start of a big month in congressional primaries. Hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux highlight the top primaries to watch, including open-seat contests that will all but decide the next House member and the most challenging nomination fight of Rep. Steve King’s (R-Iowa) career.

A record number of women ran for the House in 2018, but that record has already been broken just two years later. Kelly Dittmar of the Center for American Women and Politics has been tracking the data and explains why Democrats are still fielding far more female candidates than Republicans. Hosts: Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad. Producers: David Schultz and Josh Block.

Paul Mitchell, the Sacramento-based vice president of Political Data, Inc., discusses the highly competitive special election in California’s 25th District, north of Los Angeles, and how to read the early ballot returns he’s been tracking. Hosts: Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad. Producers: David Schultz and Josh Block. View this episode's ad of the week here.

With the elections six months away, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux discuss how the coronavirus pandemic and Trump's re-election prospects affect who will win the majorities in the House and Senate. Producers: David Schultz and Josh Block.

Bloomberg Government’s Emily Wilkins discusses how the lack of retail campaigning thanks to stay-at-home orders has made TV ads more important than ever, despite the fact that they're now becoming more complicated than ever to produce.

First quarter fundraising numbers just came in and they show that vulnerable House Democrats raked in far more than their Republican challengers. Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales discusses these numbers and the state of play for control of Congress after more than a month of social distancing. Hosts: Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux Producers: David Schultz and Josh Block Watch this episode's featured political ad here.

Hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux highlight the states where the four main congressional super PACs recently reserved TV time for the weeks leading up to the general election. Producer: David Schultz. Watch the campaign ad featured in this episode here.

Wisconsin's head-spinning state primary dynamics, a discussion of this campaign ad airing in Kentucky and later, Senate races talk with Bloomberg Government reporter Nancy Ognanovich.

Bloomberg Government politics reporter Emily Wilkins joins hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux to discuss how campaigns are continuing to reach out to voters as the coronavirus keeps most people at home.