Podcasts about currency markets

In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, host Rob Duncan welcomes Keith Dicker, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at IceCap Asset Management, for an in-depth exploration of the global financial landscape. Keith shares captivating insights from his unique career path, the art of global investing, the power of networking, and why risk management remains the cornerstone of successful strategies.   Rob and Keith unpack the implications of climbing long-term interest rates, the mounting pressures of government debt and why this could lead to greater opportunities in the future. Keith dives into the intricate dance of inflation and energy markets, offering a sharp perspective on how central bank policies are shaping investment challenges and why you need to keep an eye on currency markets.   Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Global Investing Philosophy 01:34 Keith Dicker's Journey in Investment Management 05:42 Market Outlook: Opportunities and Risks 06:10 US Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators 10:04 Long-Term Interest Rates and Economic Growth 12:31 Government Debt and Fiscal Challenges 15:52 Global Savings and Investment Strategies 18:46 Currency Markets and Risk Management 22:31 US Economic Resilience and Investment Opportunities 31:41 Inflation Trends and Market Implications 32:09 Inflation Trends and Predictions 35:31 Energy Market Dynamics 37:23 Investment Strategies for Canadians 40:50 Market Opportunities and Concerns 44:04 Central Bank Policies and Currency Dynamics 50:50 Final Thoughts and Recommendations

On the second part of a two-part roundtable, our panel gives its 2025 preview for the housing and mortgage landscape, the US Treasury yield curve and currency markets.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. This is part two of our special roundtable discussion on what's ahead for the global economy and markets in 2025.Today we will cover what is ahead for government bonds, currencies, and housing. I'm joined by Matt Hornbach, our Chief Macro Strategist; James Lord, Global Head of Currency and Emerging Market Strategy; Jay Bacow, our co-head of Securitized Product Strategy; and Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Product Strategy.It's Tuesday, November 19th, at 10am in New York.Matt, I'd like to go to you first. 2024 was a fascinating year for government bond yields globally. We started with a deeply inverted US yield curve at the beginning of the year, and we are ending the year with a much steeper curve – with much of that inversion gone. We have seen both meaningful sell offs and rallies over the course of the year as markets negotiated hard landing, soft landing, and no landing scenarios.With the election behind us and a significant change of policy ahead of us, how do you see the outlook for global government bond yields in 2025?Matt Hornbach: With the US election outcome known, global rate markets can march to the beat of its consequences. Central banks around the world continue to lower policy rates in our economist baseline projection, with much lower policy rates taking hold in their hard landing scenario versus higher rates in their scenarios for re-acceleration.This skew towards more dovish outcomes alongside the baseline for lower policy rates than captured in current market prices ultimately leads to lower government bond yields and steeper yield curves across most of the G10 through next year. Summarizing the regions, we expect treasury yields to move lower over the forecast horizon, helped by 75 [basis points] worth of Fed rate cuts, more than markets currently price.We forecast 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 and 3.75 per cent by the middle of next year and ending the year just above 3.5 per cent.Our economists are forecasting a pause in the easing cycle in the second half of the year from the Fed. That would leave the Fed funds rate still above the median longer run dot.The rationale for the pause involves Fed uncertainty over the ultimate effects of tariffs and immigration reform on growth and inflation.We also see the treasury curve bull steepening throughout the forecast horizon with most of the steepening in the first half of the year, when most of the fall in yields occur.Finally, on break even inflation rates, we see five- and 10-year break evens tightening slightly by the middle of 2025 as inflation risks cool. However, as the Trump administration starts implementing tariffs, break evens widen in our forecast with the five- and 10-year maturities reaching 2.55 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively by the end of next year.As such, we think real yields will lead the bulk of the decline in nominal yields in our forecasting with the 10-year real yield around 1.45 per cent by the middle of next year; and ending the year at 1.15 per cent.Vishy Tirupattur: That's very helpful, Matt. James, clearly the incoming administration has policy choices, and their sequencing and severity will have major implications for the strength of the dollar that has rallied substantially in the last few months. Against this backdrop, how do you assess 2025 to be? What differences do you expect to see between DM and EM currency markets?James Lord: The incoming administration's proposed policies could have far-reaching impacts on currency markets, some of which are already being reflected in the price of the dollar today. We had argued ahead of the election that a Republican sweep was probably the most bullish dollar outcome, and we are now seeing that being reflected.We do think the dollar rally continues for a little bit longer as markets price in a higher likelihood of tariffs being implemented against trading partners and there being a risk of additional deficit expansion in 2025. However, we don't really see that dollar strength persisting for long throughout 2025.So, I think that is – compared to the current debate, compared to the current market pricing – a negative dollar catalyst that should get priced into markets.And to your question, Vishy, that there will be differences with EM and also within EM as well. Probably the most notable one is the renminbi. We have the renminbi as the weakest currency within all of our forecasts for 2025, really reflecting the impact of tariffs.We expect tariffs against China to be more consequential than against other countries, thus requiring a bigger adjustment on the FX side. We see dollar China, or dollar renminbi ending next year at 7.6. So that represents a very sharp divergence versus dollar yen and the broader DXY moves – and is a consequence of tariffs.And that does imply that the Fed's broad dollar index only has a pretty modest decline next year, despite the bigger move in the DXY. The rest of Asia will likely follow dollar China more closely than dollar yen, in our view, causing AXJ currencies to generally underperform; versus CMEA and Latin America, which on the whole do a bit better.Vishy Tirupattur: Jay, in contrast to corporate credit, mortgage spreads are at or about their long-term average levels. How do you expect 2025 to pan out for mortgages? What are the key drivers of your expectations, and which potential policy changes you are most focused on?Jay Bacow: As you point out, mortgage spreads do look wide to corporate spreads, but there are good reasons for that. We all know that the Fed is reducing their holdings of mortgages, and they're the largest holder of mortgages in the world.We don't expect Fed balance sheet reduction of mortgages to change, even if they do NQT, as is our forecast in the first quarter of 2025. When they NQT, we expect mortgage runoff to continue to go into treasuries. What we do expect to change next year is that bank demand function will shift. We are working under the assumption that the Basel III endgame either stalls under the next administration or gets released in a way that is capital neutral. And that's going to free up excess capital for banks and reduce regulatory uncertainty for them in how they deploy the cash in their portfolios.The one thing that we've been waiting for is this clarity around regulations. When that changes, we think that's going to be a positive, but it's not just banks returning to the market.We think that there's going to be tailwinds from overseas investors that are going to be hedging out their FX risks as the Fed cuts rates, and the Bank of Japan hikes, so we expect more demand from Japanese life insurance companies.A steeper yield curve is going to be good for REIT demand. And these buyers, banks, overseas REITs, they typically buy CUSIPs, and that's going to help not just from a demand side, but it's going to help funding on mortgages improve as well. And all of those things are going to take mortgage spreads tighter, and that's why we are bullish.I also want to mention agency CMBS for a moment. The technical pressure there is even better than in single family mortgages. The supply story is still constrained, but there is no Fed QT in multifamily. And then also the capital that's going to be available for banks from the deregulation will allow them – in combination with the portfolio layer hedging – to add agency CMBS in a way that they haven't really been adding in the last few years. So that could take spreads tighter as well.Now, Vishy, you also mentioned policy changes. We think discussions around GSE reform are likely to become more prevalent under the new administration.And we think that given that improved capitalization, depending on the path of their earnings and any plans to raise capital, we could see an attempt to exit conservatorship during this administration.But we will simply state our view that any plan that results in a meaningful change to the capital treatment – or credit risk – to the investors of conventional mortgages is going to be too destabilizing for the housing finance markets to implement. And so, we don't think that path could go forward.Vishy Tirupattur: Thanks, Jay. Jim, it was a challenging year for the housing market with historically high levels of unaffordability and continued headwinds of limited supply. How do you see 2025 to be for the US housing market? And going beyond housing, what is your outlook for the opportunity set in securitized credit for 2025?James Egan: For the housing market, the 2025 narrative is going to be one about absolute level versus the direction and rate of change. For instance, Vishy, you mentioned affordability. Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of September, but it's also true that they're down roughly a hundred basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're forecasting pretty healthy decreases in the 10-year Treasury throughout 2025. So, we expect affordability to improve over the coming year. Supply? It remains near historic lows, but it's been increasing year to date.So similar to the affordability narrative, it's more challenged than it's been in decades; but it's also less challenged than it was a year ago.So, what does all this mean for the housing market as we look through 2025? Despite the improvements in affordability, sales volumes have been pretty stagnant this year. Total volumes – so existing plus new volumes – are actually down about 3 per cent year to date. And look, that isn't unusual. It typically takes about a year for sales volumes to pick up when you see this kind of significant affordability improvement that we've witnessed over the past year, even with the recent backup in mortgage rates.And that means we think we're kind of entering that sweet spot for increased sales now. We've seen purchase applications turn positive year over year. We've seen pending home sales turn positive year over year. That's the first time both of those things have happened since 2021. But when we think about how much sales 2025, we think it's going to be a little bit more curtailed. There are a whole host of reasons for that – but one of them the lock in effect has been a very popular talking point in the housing market this year. If we look at just the difference between the effective mortgage rate on the outstanding universe and where you can take out a mortgage rate today, the universe is still over 200 basis points out of the money.To the upside, you're not going to get 10 per cent growth there, but you're going to get more than 5 per cent growth in new home sales. And what I really want to emphasize here is – yes, mortgage rates have increased recently. We expect them to come down in 2025; but even if they don't, we don't think there's a lot of room for downside to existing home sales from here.There's some level of housing activity that has to happen, regardless of where mortgage rates or affordability are. We think we're there. Turnover measured as the number of transactions – existing transactions – as a share of the outstanding housing market is lower now than it was during the great financial crisis. It's as low as it's been in a little bit over 40 years. We just don't think it can fall that much further from here.But as we go through 2025, we do think it dips negative. We have a negative 2 per cent HPA call next year, not significantly down. We don't think there's a lot of room to the downside given the healthy foundation, the low supply, the strong credit standards in the housing market. But there is a little bit of negativity next year before home prices reaccelerate.This leaves us generically constructive on securitized products across the board. Given how much of the capital structure has flattened this year, we think CLO AAAs actually offer the best value amongst the debt tranches there. We think non-QM triple AAAs and agency MBS is going to tighten. They look cheap to IG corporates. Consumer ABS, we also think still looks pretty cheap to IG corporates. Even in the CMBS pace, we think there's opportunities. CMBS has really outperformed this year as rates have come down. Now our bull bear spread differentials are much wider in CMBS than they are elsewhere, but in our base case, conduit BBB minuses still offer attractive value.That being said, if we're going to go down the capital structure, our favorite expression in the securitized credit space is US CLO equity.Vishy Tirupattur: Thank you, Jay and Jim, and also Matt and James.We'll close it out here. As a reminder, if you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso talk about the key influences impacting on currencies this week including continued news on the US election, Chinese economic stimulus news and Australian and UK labour market data.    ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data' is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank's internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group's Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.    

In this week's episode we discuss the key drivers of the Australian dollar this week including the US election,  RBA and Federal Reserve interest rate announcements, and the expected Chinese economic stimulus announcement.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data' is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank's internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group's Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  

Japan goes to the polls on October 27. In the US, Americans will vote on their next president in a couple of weeks.  How will elections impact both the USD and the Japanese Yen? What is the effect on the Sing dollar against these major currencies? Yeap Junrong, Market Strategist at IG, shares his insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The dollar has roared higher against most currencies since our last episode amid a confluence of supportive factors. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have fuelled safe-haven flows, while triggering a move higher in oil prices. US macroeconomic news has also taken a turn for the better, with last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report smashing past even the most optimistic of forecasts. In this week's episode, we discuss the recent rally in the greenback, the FX implications for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the fallout from some surprisingly dovish comments from governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

Pushpendra Mehta meets with Ben Poole, Writer at CTMfile, to review the latest treasury news and developments. Topics of discussion include the following: Where treasurers have influence, companies enjoy revenue growth and financial stability Why the UK pound is unlikely to regain its pre-Brexit levels Fund managers concern for US election's impact on FX markets European payment fraud hit €6.3bn over 18 months

Activity in the FX market since our last episode has been largely dominated by political jitters, with both France and Britain to go to the polls in crucial elections in the coming weeks. While the UK general election appears a foregone conclusion, the French legislative elections are anything but. We break down the possible scenarios of the latter, and discuss what kind of impact the vote could have on the euro, which has underperformed its peers since the election was called.We also discuss the fallout from the June meetings of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. When will the FOMC pull the trigger on lower US rates? And will the ECB deliver one or two additional cuts in 2024? Tune in to hear our thoughts!We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast  or Call 866-349-3310

Steve speaks to Manpreet about our bonds and currency market outlook for 2024, why we like high quality bonds and how to take advantage of the US Dollar range.To view our 2024 Outlook, please click here.  Speakers:Steve Brice, Chief Investment Officer, Standard Chartered BankManpreet Gill, CIO of Africa, Middle East & Europe (AME/E) and Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Following a volatile start to 2023, Bhaskar Gupta, our Head of FX Distribution UK, considers the outlook for currency markets for the remainder of the year. He also explores the role of central banks in managing potential volatility, as well as possible opportunities for investors, and falling recession risks in the major economies. Also on the podcast, host Henk Potts delves into supply and demand in the energy sector, US inflation and the upcoming rate decision from the European Central Bank.

Since central banks abandoned their ultra-loose monetary policies, the macro landscape has become increasingly divergent, with greater dispersion across interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. As a result, currencies once again offer a source of investment returns, as well as portfolio diversification. Managed futures strategies allow practitioners to exploit tactical opportunities in this highly liquid asset class, in a systematic way. - Razvan Remsing, Aspect Capital. Earn 1.00 CE/CPD hrs on Portfolio Construction Forum

At the moment, the key theme in currencies is an improvement in risk sentiment and an appreciation in high-risk currencies, at the expense of lower-risk ones, such as the US dollar. The USD index has hit a June 2022 low and has fallen more than 10% since October, as the Federal Reserve slows its hiking cycle and global recession fears abate. Among the better performers, currencies closely linked to China have been doing well. In the G10, the Australian dollar has been doing particularly well. Among emerging market currencies, some Asian currencies, notably the Thai baht, have seen a strong performance. The Brazilian real and Chilean peso in Latin America, which rely heavily on China's demand, are also outperforming. Later in this podcast, we will delve into China's reopening and examine the winners and losers of that development.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

On today's episode of On the Margin, Will Clemente and Dylan LeClair join Mike to discuss Bitcoin's 2023 outlook. Bitcoin is a liquidity gauge, and the markets are drying up. We explore what we expect from macro, how the Fed will respond and what this means for crypto, bonds and currency markets. Will and Dylan then explain Bitcoin's correlation to macro, why Bitcoin has "failed" to be an inflation hedge and their (bullish) investment thesis. Finally, we close with a conversation on Bitcoin miners, Silvergate/Genesis and projections for crypto in 2023! -- Follow Will: https://twitter.com/WClementeIII Follow: Dylan https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_ Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Referenced In The Show: Reflexivity Research's 2022/2023 Report https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ET__oUi5LeoKBxX2pBZu0FL9AaQ9B56R/view Reflexivity Research https://www.reflexivityresearch.com/ Bitcoin Magazine https://bitcoinmagazine.com/ Felix on Forward Guidance https://bit.ly/3Zx0CAj -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) The 2022 Leverage Unwind (05:06) Tailwinds or Headwinds on the Horizon? (12:09) How Japan Could Trigger a Black Swan Event (14:31) Currency Markets vs Bond Markets (17:47) It's All a Liquidity Game (22:59) The Macro and Crypto Correlation (32:44) Permissionless Ad (33:28) Bitcoin's Inflation Hedge Narrative (41:40) Bitcoin Miner Dynamics (52:38) Silvergate and Genesis (1:00:57) Crypto's 2023 Outlook -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

China finally signs of an easing in its zero-Covid policy. It boosted the CNY and risk currencies against the USD. We see an improvement in risk sentiment and also signs of a downtrend of US inflation. We also are noticing growing expectation among investors for a dovish pivot during the Fed meeting next week. We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The reason we can eat pineapples and sell aeroplane parts. But why might the value of the pound fall and what does that mean if it does? Tim Harford explains who wins and who loses if the pound is cheap against the dollar and economic historian Victoria Bateman tells the story of a trade deal with Portugal that flooded England with wine and Port. Everything you need to know about the economy and what it means for you. This podcast will cut through the jargon to bring you clarity and ensure you finally understand all those complicated terms and phrases you hear on the news. Inflation, GDP, Interest rates, and bonds, Tim Harford and friends explain them all. We'll ensure you understand what's going on today, why your shopping is getting more expensive or why your pay doesn't cover your bills. We'll also bring you surprising histories, from the war hungry Kings who have shaped how things are counted today to the greedy merchants flooding Spain with Silver coins. So if your eyes usually glaze over when someone says ‘cutting taxes stimulates growth', fear no more, we've got you covered.Guest: Professor Richard Davies, The University of BristolProducer: Phoebe KeaneResearcher: Drew Hyndman Editor: Clare FordhamTheme music: Don't Fret, Beats Fresh MusicA BBC Long Form Audio Production for BBC Radio 4

The U.S. dollar is stronger than it's been in decades against currencies around the world. But that's not true across Latin America where, in some cases, smart policies by governments and central banks have helped keep domestic currencies steady. XP Investment's Alberto Bernal tells AS/COA Vice President Randy Melzi which countries have been successful and which are at risk. This episode features a quiz! Get the answers to the lightening round of currency trivia at: www.as-coa.org/podcast The music featured in this episode is "Adiós Fulana" (A.M. Peñaloza) performed by La Manga for Americas Society. Watch the video:  https://youtu.be/bP7pC7Fd_XU Learn more at:  https://musicoftheamericas.org

As markets shift, corporate treasurers and CFOs need to keep up. We talked to Corpay Cross-Border's currency research team, Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist and Karthik Sankaran, Senior Market Strategist, about the risk of recession, the rise in global commodity prices, inflationary pressures, what we can expect from currency markets in the short term, and what's coming in Q4.Note: The opinions expressed on Fintech in Focus News & Views are those of the speakers only, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Corpay or FLEETCOR Technologies Inc. 

"Jobs are a lagging indicator of the U.S. economy. With the recent cuts in the jobs openings and continuous announcing of layoffs by companies or at minimum, hiring freezes, one should take notice of where the economic puck is going and not where it is. A Federal Reserve pause will come from credit markets, currency markets, and crisis management. I prefer value companies over growth. Investors should look for predictive cashflows and companies that pay dividends," says Matt Lloyd.

Darius McDermott and Juliet Schooling Latter return to discuss the third quarter of 2022. After a week of turmoil in the UK markets, they explain what has been going on. They also discuss the US, high yield bonds, and why financial companies have done well recently. They also touch on the continued outperformance of Latin American equities; the possible issues coming out of Japan; and wrap up with the positive opportunities for investors amidst all the doom and gloom.What's covered in this episode: What has been happening in the UK market in the past weekWhy the UK bond market did not like the min-BudgetWhy the US does not have the same inflation worries as EuropeHow high interest rates could go in the UKWhy bonds are now looking more attractive investmentsWhy larger UK companies are holding up better than smaller onesIf the US will go into recessionThe outlook for high yield bondsWhy financial companies have done well in the last 3 monthsWhy Latin American and Indian Equities have also performed wellPossible issues coming out of JapanThe positive opportunities we can find amidst all the doom and gloomMore about this episode:We are now three-quarters of the way through 2022 and markets continue to be volatile. In fact, we've just had a tumultuous week in the UK. In this podcast, Juliet Schooling Latter and Darius McDermott discuss what has been happening, they review the few sectors that have held up well and offer some positives in what looks to be a gloomy outlook for the rest of this year.Learn more on fundcalibre.comPlease remember, we've been discussing individual companies to bring investing to life for you. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. The fund may or may not still hold these companies at the time of listening. Elite Ratings are based on FundCalibre's research methodology and are the opinion of FundCalibre's research team only.

Show Notes:Comments on Currency Markets -https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/whipsawed-forex-traders-say-currency-moves-remarkable-resemble-casino-2022-09-27/Tweet from Sentiment Trader - https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1572914151915393026Tweet from Callie Cox - https://twitter.com/callieabost/status/1567253842995154945

Professor Ilian Mihov, Dean of INSEAD and the Rausing Chaired Professor of Economic and Business Transformation breaks down central pillars of macroeconomics and inflation to help us understand the next possible macro policy change arising from what he says is necessary -  demand destruction. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The value of the US dollar has risen during the Ukraine war. If peace breaks out, the dollar might be one of its casualties. Original Article: "The Story of War and Peace in the Currency Markets" This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.

The value of the US dollar has risen during the Ukraine war. If peace breaks out, the dollar might be one of its casualties. Original Article: "The Story of War and Peace in the Currency Markets" This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.

Stock markets recovered somewhat into the end of the US trading day. Main topics today are the US dollar's rally, oil's downturn, and the inverted yield curve in the US. Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research talks about the impact of the collapse of Mt Gox, once the world's largest crypto exchange, on crypto assets.00:17 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)00:56 Markets Wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)04:27 Currency Markets update / king dollar by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)07:51 Crypto Markets / Mt. Cox by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)11:52 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

What’s next for Crude Oil, Currency Markets & the Stock Market? Tracy Shuchart & Blake Morrow join me to discuss how they are managing volatility in these wild markets. We discussed why Blake is long the Euro, why Tracy is long miners & Oil Stocks and we give our thoughts on the Fed, Gold, and […]

What’s next for Crude Oil, Currency Markets & the Stock Market? Tracy Shuchart & Blake Morrow join me to discuss how they are managing volatility in these wild markets. We discussed why Blake is long the Euro, why Tracy is long miners & Oil Stocks and we give our thoughts on the Fed, Gold, and […]

With multiple countries now imposing sanctions, investors in Russian government bonds and currencies will need to consider their options as the risk of default rises.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----James Lord: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Head of FX and EM strategy. Simon Waever: And I'm Simon Waever, Global Head of Sovereign Credit Strategy. James Lord: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll be discussing the impact of recent sanctions on Russia for bonds and currency markets. It's Friday, March 11th at 1:00 p.m. in London. Simon Waever: and 8:00 a.m. in New York. James Lord: So, Simon, we've all been watching the recent events in Ukraine, which are truly tragic, and I think we've all been very saddened by everything that's happened. And it certainly feels a bit trite to be talking about the market implications of everything. But at the same time, there are huge economic and financial consequences from this invasion, and it has big implications for the whole world. So today, I think it would be great if we can provide a little bit of clarity on the impact for emerging markets. Simon, I want to start with Russia itself. The strong sanctions put in place have really had a big impact and increasing the likelihood that Russia could default on its debt. Can you walk us through where we stand on that debate and what the implications are? Simon Waever: That's right, it's had a huge impact already. So Russia's sovereign ratings have been downgraded all the way to Triple C and below, which is only just above default, and that's them having been investment grade just two weeks ago. If you look at the dollar denominated sovereign bonds, they're trading at around 20 cents on the dollar or below. But I think it all makes sense. The economic resilience needed to support an investment grade rating goes away when you remove a large part of the effect reserves, have sanctions on 80% of the banking sector, and with the economy likely to enter into a bigger recession, higher oil prices help, but just not enough. For now, the question is whether upcoming payments on the sovereign dollar bonds will be made. And I think it really comes down to two things. One, whether Russia wants to make the payments, so what we tend to call the willingness. And two whether US sanctions allow it, so the ability. Clarifications from the US Treasury suggests that beyond May 25th, payments cannot be made. So, either a missed payment happens on the first bond repayment after this, which is May 27th or Russia may also decide not to pay as soon as the next payment, which is on March 16th. And of course, the reason for Russia potentially not paying would be that they would want to conserve their foreign exchange. And actually, we've already had some issues on the local currency government bonds, so the ones denominated in Russian ruble. James, do you want to go over what those issues have been? James Lord: That's absolutely right. Already, foreigners do not appear to have received interest payments on their holdings of local currency government bonds. There was one due at the beginning of March, and it looks as though, although the Russian government has paid the interest on that bond, the institutions that are then supposed to transfer the interest payments onto the funds of the various bondholders haven't done so for at least the foreign holders of that bond. Does that count as default? Well, I mean, on the one hand, the government can claim to have paid, but at the same time, some bondholders clearly haven't received any money. There's also another interest payment due in the last week of March, so we'll see if anything changes with that payment. But in the end, there isn't a huge amount that bondholders can really do about it, since these are local currency bonds and they're governed under local law. There isn't really much in the way of legal recourse, and there isn't really much insurance that investors can take out to protect themselves. The situation is a bit different for Russian government bonds that are denominated in US dollars, though. So I'd like to dig a little bit more into what happens if Russia defaults on those bonds. For listeners that are unfamiliar, investors will sometimes take out insurance policies called CDSs or credit default swaps just for this type of situation, and they've been quite a lot of headlines around this. So, Simon, I'd be curious if you could walk us through the implications of default there. Simon Waever: So it's like two different products, right? So you have the bonds there, it can take a long time to recover some of the lost value. I mean, either you actually get the economic recovery and there's no default or you then go to a debt restructuring or litigation. But then on the other hand, you have the CDS contracts, they're going to pay out within a few weeks of the missed bond payment. But it's not unusual to find disagreement on exactly what that payment will look like. And that payment is, we call it, the recovery value perhaps is a bit like the uncertainty that sometimes happens when standard insurance needs to pay out. But if we start with the facts, if there is a missed payment on any of the upcoming dollar or euro denominated bonds, then CDS will trigger. Local currency bonds do not count and the sovereign rating does not matter either. So far I think it's clear, the uncertainty has been around what bonds can actually be delivered into the contract, as that's what determines the recovery value. As it stands, sanctions do allow secondary trading of the bonds. There have been some issues around settlement, but hopefully that can be resolved by the time an auction comes around. The main question is then where that recovery rate will end up, and I would say that given the amount of selling I think is yet to come I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being among the lower recovery rates we've seen in E.M sovereign CDS. James Lord: Yeah, that makes sense on the recovery rates and the CDs. But I mean, clearly, if Russia defaults, there could be some big implications for the rest of emerging markets as well. And even if they don't default, I mean, there's been a lot of spill over into other asset classes and other emerging markets. How do you think about that? Simon Waever: So I try to think of it in two ways, and I would expect both to continue if we do not see a de-escalation in Ukraine. So first, it really impacts those countries physically close to Russia and Ukraine and those then with trade linkages, which mainly comes with agriculture, energy, tourism and remittances. And that points you towards Eastern Europe, Turkey and Egypt, for instance. Secondly, if we also then see this continued weaker risk backdrop, it would then impact those countries where investor positioning is heavier. But enough on sovereign credit, I wanted to cover currencies, too. The Russian central bank was sanctioned. What do you think that means for EM currencies? James Lord: Absolutely. The sanctions against the central Bank of Russia were really quite dramatic and have understandably had a very big impact on the Russian exchange rate. The ruble's really depreciated in value quite significantly in the last couple of weeks. I mean, during periods of market uncertainty, the central Bank of Russia would ordinarily sell its foreign exchange assets to buy Ruble to keep the currency under control. But now that's not really possible. It's led to a whole range of countermeasures from Russia to try and protect the currency, such as lifting interest rates from just under 10% to 20%. There have also been significant restrictions on the ability of local residents to move capital abroad or buy dollars, and on the ability of foreigners that hold assets in Russia to actually sell and take their money home. All of that's designed to protect the exchange rate and keep foreign exchange reserves on home soil. I think the willingness of the US to go down that road, as well as the authorities in Europe and Canada and other jurisdictions, it does raise some important questions about whether or not investors will continue to want to hold dollars and US government bonds as part of their FX reserves. Many reserve asset holders may wonder whether or not similar action could be taken against them. This has become a big debate in the market. Some investors believe that this turn of events could ultimately lead to some long-term weakness in the dollar. But I think it's also important to remember that yes the U.S. is not the only country that has done this, and it's probably the case that actually any country could potentially freeze the foreign assets of another central bank. And if that's the case, then I don't see having a materially negative impact on the dollar over the long term, as many now seem to be suggesting. But I think that's all we have time for today. So let's leave it there. Simon, thanks very much for taking the time to talk. Simon Waever: Great speaking with you, James. James Lord: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

From the BBC World Service: Turkey’s central bank is selling U.S. dollars to try stabilize the lira currency as another rate decision looms, the U.K. government is hiring around 2,000 investigators to help reclaim billions of dollars lost to benefits fraud and criminal gangs. A meeting in Geneva this week seeks to regulate investments in autonomous weapons like killer robots. Your first donation to Marketplace goes TWICE as far with a dollar-for-dollar match from the Investors Challenge Fund! Give Now.

From the BBC World Service: Turkey’s central bank is selling U.S. dollars to try stabilize the lira currency as another rate decision looms, the U.K. government is hiring around 2,000 investigators to help reclaim billions of dollars lost to benefits fraud and criminal gangs. A meeting in Geneva this week seeks to regulate investments in autonomous weapons like killer robots. Your first donation to Marketplace goes TWICE as far with a dollar-for-dollar match from the Investors Challenge Fund! Give Now.

Interview with Brisbane investor Pavel Entin on the situation on the stock markets. - Интервью с инвестором из Брисбена Павлом Энтиным о ситуации на фондовых рынках.

Martin Wolf is the Chief Economic Commentator for the Financial Times and is currently working on a book about the crisis of democratic capitalism.Lyn Alden on the Petro-Dollar:https://youtu.be/sTKObw_-OBYKeith Dicker explains why the US Dollar is King:https://youtu.be/gLmoJYqZuksJim Rogers on the Rise of China:https://youtu.be/SfLaJtXfx3wPaul Kingsnorth critiques Neo-liberalism:https://youtu.be/HJViqeBovvQFirst Interview with Simon Mikhailovich:https://youtu.be/Na9SA84JJ1EJeff Booth on Tech Deflation:https://youtu.be/qlF_AG-0QC8

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.comhttps://www.ft.com/content/896cc408-68c4-4fd1-960b-85bb18843384Ford and General Motors said on Thursday that they are improving links with semiconductor manufacturers to improve their supply of electronic chips as the car industry confronts a shortage. Some foreign companies are still investing in Turkey despite the country's ailing economy. Plus, the FT's markets editor, Katie Martin, explains why the euro is losing value against the US dollar and why it could potentially make inflation worse. Ford and GM pursue ties with semiconductor groups to boost chip supplyhttps://www.ft.com/content/06252ac7-5b10-45d8-834f-c7180722bda0Euro hit by bets ECB monetary policy will diverge from major peers - with Katie Martin https://www.ft.com/content/f09a8ba8-c196-46d0-8fe7-15d6ae64364fTurkey defies warnings and cuts interest rateshttps://www.ft.com/content/2db0434d-2851-4485-850d-06cfca32ff22FT News Briefing wins Gold and a People's Lovie Awards:https://winners.lovieawards.com/?_ga=2.160925368.480629916.1637093197-697055072.1634666649#!p=118The FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon and Marc Filippino. The show's editor is Jess Smith. Additional help by Peter Barber, Gavin Kallmann and Michael Bruning. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Lyn Alden on the Petro-Dollar:https://youtu.be/sTKObw_-OBYKeith Dicker explains why the US Dollar is King:https://youtu.be/gLmoJYqZuksJim Rogers on the Rise of China:https://youtu.be/SfLaJtXfx3wPaul Kingsnorth critiques Neo-liberalism:https://youtu.be/HJViqeBovvQFirst Interview with Simon Mikhailovich:https://youtu.be/Na9SA84JJ1EJeff Booth on Tech Deflation:https://youtu.be/qlF_AG-0QC8

Најзначајније информације из Аустралије, Србије и света - на једном месту.

An Australian company now pays its employees part of their salary in bitcoin. The head of the start-up Finder believes that this will be the future - even though cryptocurrencies are considered volatile. This year, bitcoin has already gone down more often. My colleague Barbara Barkhausen, who regularly reports on tech topics for a German medium, took a closer look at the new model and spoke to me on the phone. - Eine australische Firma zahlt ihren Angestellten inzwischen einen Teil ihres Gehalts in Bitcoin aus. Der Chef des Startups Finder glaubt, dass dies die Zukunft sein wird – auch wenn Kryptowährungen als volatil gelten. In diesem Jahr ist der Bitcoin schon häufiger auf Talfahrt gegangen. Meine Kollegin Barbara Barkhausen, die regelmäßig über Techthemen für ein deutsches Medium berichtet, hat sich das neue Modell näher angeschaut und sprach mit mir am Telefon.

This new report from UBS Global Wealth Management explains how and why its CIO is updating forecasts to reflect a neutral view on the US dollar this year. We'll hear from one of our regular chroniclers of currency market moves in London and from one of the report's co-authors in Zurich. They'll talk about the ongoing coronavirus situation, central bank intentions, inflationary pressures, where we are in the economic recovery and what all of this means for currency markets.

This new report from UBS Global Wealth Management explains how and why its CIO is updating forecasts to reflect a neutral view on the US dollar this year. We'll hear from one of our regular chroniclers of currency market moves in London and from one of the report's co-authors in Zurich. They'll talk about the ongoing coronavirus situation, central bank intentions, inflationary pressures, where we are in the economic recovery and what all of this means for currency markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Empire's New Clothes is a Podcast & YouTube series examining the cyclical forces that make and break empires. We’ll try to answer the big questions of how we got here as a society and tease out what’s coming next. Episodes drop every Monday. www.theempiresclothes.com https://open.spotify.com/show/0006eX0RIlaP8d4QeC4vlsP006 https://twitter.com/EmpiresClothes https://www.facebook.com/empiresclothes https://www.instagram.com/empires_clothes/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-empires-new-clothes/about/

The Empire's New Clothes is a Podcast & YouTube series examining the cyclical forces that make and break empires. We’ll try to answer the big questions of how we got here as a society and tease out what’s coming next. Episodes drop every Monday.www.theempiresclothes.comhttps://open.spotify.com/show/0006eX0RIlaP8d4QeC4vlsP006https://twitter.com/EmpiresClothes https://www.facebook.com/empiresclothes https://www.instagram.com/empires_clothes/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-empires-new-clothes/about/

What does equity and human rights have to do with the stability and vibrancy of the American economy? Justice Informed CEO Xavier Ramey discusses his journey from the slums of Chicago to consulting for large American corporations. With different groups in America all believing and fighting for competing versions of America we also discuss the challenges this dynamic brings. The Empire's New Clothes is a Podcast & YouTube series examining the cyclical forces that make and break empires. We’ll try to answer the big questions of how we got here as a society and tease out what’s coming next. Episodes drop every Monday. www.theempiresclothes.com https://open.spotify.com/show/0006eX0RIlaP8d4QeC4vlsP006 https://twitter.com/EmpiresClothes https://www.facebook.com/empiresclothes https://www.instagram.com/empires_clothes/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-empires-new-clothes/about/

A paradigm shift is coming for democracies if inequality is not soon addressed. Richard Wilkinson of the University of Nottingham joins us to discuss how he and Kate Pickett proved causality between inequality and a myriad of societal health issues. America is at a turning point where addressing these health issues and thereby inequality are becoming increasingly important. The Empire's New Clothes is a Podcast & YouTube series examining the cyclical forces that make and break empires. We’ll try to answer the big questions of how we got here as a society and tease out what’s coming next. Episodes drop every Monday. www.theempiresclothes.com https://open.spotify.com/show/0006eX0RIlaP8d4QeC4vlsP006 https://twitter.com/EmpiresClothes https://www.facebook.com/empiresclothes https://www.instagram.com/empires_clothes/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-empires-new-clothes/about/

Is the manipulation of markets by the Federal Reserve sealing the fate for a coming paradigm shift or market crash? Jesse Felder uses his market analysis and macro economic framework to guide us into a whole new world of financial literacy. Jesse joins us after years at Bear, Stearns & Co, founder of a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund and now the publisher of the Felder Report and Host of Superinvestors & the Art of Worldly Wisdom Podcast The Empire's New Clothes is a Podcast & YouTube series examining the cyclical forces that make and break empires. We’ll try to answer the big questions of how we got here as a society and tease out what’s coming next. Episodes drop every Monday. www.theempiresclothes.com https://open.spotify.com/show/0006eX0RIlaP8d4QeC4vlsP006 https://twitter.com/EmpiresClothes https://www.facebook.com/empiresclothes https://www.instagram.com/empires_clothes/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-empires-new-clothes/about/

The investments in Bitcoin by Ruffer and MassMutual may have caught the headlines, but crypto-currencies are becoming a tool for corporate treasurers to manage their liabilities as well as a source of capital growth for asset managers. Near-zero to negative interest rates and repeated central bank interventions are encouraging a more adventurous approach in the corporate as well as the retail markets. Whether this will end well cannot be known, but treasurers certainly need safe ways to trade and even safer ways to custody the assets, and the conventional banking industry is not rushing to provide them. Rob Gaskell, partner at Appold, the London-based emerging technology advisory and investment company, shared with Dominic Hobson his view of the risks and opportunities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to part seven of this mini-series on currency investing. This is the final part of the seven-part mini-series covering how to select a broker and how to access the currency markets. During this episode, the focus is on the different ways to access the global currency markets, and how to select the right broker that suits your needs. We will be covering: Options Futures Exchange-Traded Funds also known as ETFs Spot Forex And spread betting, spread betting is for UK residents And how to select a broker that best suits you Timestamps as follows: 0:00 to 0:57 Introduction. 0:58 to 1:18 Review of last week's episode. 1:19 to 2:49 Introduction to currency options. 2:50 to 4:41 Currency futures contract. 4:42 to 5:34 Exchange-traded fund also known as ETF's. 5:35 to 6:09 Spot forex. 6:10 to 7:15 Spread betting UK residents only. 7:16 to 9:50 How to select the right broker to suit your needs. 9:50 to 11:01 wrap up. Hope you have a wonderful day, The FYR team. Resources: Guide To Funding Your Retirement Speak to a Financial Adviser Fund Your Retirement Knowledge Area  Fund Your Retirement E-book

How to analyse the currency markets, part four of this mini-series on currency investing. During this episode we cover the very important topics of: Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Sentiment Analysis Seasonality For the inexperienced trader, market analysis can create a chaotic and muddled picture, because different traders given the same financial data, may come to different conclusions and react to the market in entirely different ways.  There are traders and investors who only use fundamentals or technicals and will swear by them but there are many more who use a combination of the two or all four to gain an insight into an asset's likely price direction. Time stamps as follows: 0:00 to 0:51 Introduction. 0:52 to 1:15 Review of last week's episode with fund manager Mike Andrews. 1:16 to 1:57 Two main approaches to currency investing. 1:58 to 3:49 What is technical analysis. 3:50 to 5:08 What is fundamental analysis. 5:09 to 6:00 What is sentiment analysis. 6:01 to 7:51 What is seasonality. 7:52 to 8:33 For the inexperienced trader or investor. 8:33 to 8:55 Touching on risk management. 8:55 to 10:09 Wrap up Hope you have a wonderful day. The FYR team. Resources: Guide To Funding Your Retirement Speak to a Financial Adviser Trading For Retirement Community and Academy Fund Your Retirement Knowledge Area Fund Your Retirement E-book  

A summary of “The Equity Differential Factor in Currency Markets,” by David Turkington, CFA, and Alireza Yazdani, published in the Second Quarter 2020 issue of the Financial Analysts Journal.

We open with the first of our series celebrating 75 years of the Journal. Next “The Big Market Delusion” and four research articles: two using big data “Public Sentiment and the Price of Corporate Sustainability” followed by “When Managers Change Their Tone, Analysts and Investors Change Their Tune”; next “The Equity Differential Factor in Currency Markets “and “Looking under the Hood of Active Credit Managers.”

Subscribe to our channel for important financial market updates now! http://bit.ly/2t1HKOjSubscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Friday April 29, 2016 was the final trading day for the month of April and I think this will turn out to be a pivotal month for the month of April and I will talk more about that later in this report I wanted start by talking about the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday not to raise interest rates Few people really believed they would, but earlier in the year it was widely believed that by April the Fed would have raised interest rates at least one more time, given the fact that they began the tightening cycle in December with the first .25 rate hike What's more important than the failure to raise rates again was what they wrote in their statement with respect to the idea that future rate hikes are forthcoming The Fed is still clinging to the false narrative that this recovery that is basically already ended is on track, and that they will be raising interest rates at some point later in the year maybe 2 or 3 more times; they just decided not to do it in April The only acknowledgement that the Fed made with respect to the economy was that growth was slowing That is a dramatic understatement to say that growth has slowed If you go back to December, when the Fed confidently announced their first rate hike, they were forecasting that the economy would grow by about 3% in the first quarter of 2016 Yesterday we got the government's first estimate for Q1 growth rate and it came in at just .5% You can hardly refer to that as a slowdown, when pretty much all of the growth that the Federal Reserve believed was going to materialize evaporated I don't know how they can simply say growth is slowing - growth is non-existent As a matter of fact, the New York, Fed, which recently began issuing its own GDP Now Forecast, are now forecasting that Q2 will be just .8% Averaging the two quarters out, you barely have any economic growth I think the New York Fed is still overly optimistic I think the Q1 report of .5% will be negative after final revisions I also believe Q2 is going to be worse than Q1 Even if Q1 .5% holds, that represents the third consecutive quarter where GDP has declined In fact 2015 Q4 was 1.4%, so .5% is less than half of the most recent quarter I think that trend is going to continue There are still a lot of people who believe we'll get a rebound in Q2, because we got a Q2 rebound in the prior 2 years. But the New York Fed is already throwing cold water on the idea that there is going to be a rebound What nobody is talking about is that the main reason for the Q2 rebound in the previous 2 years was because we had unseasonably cold winters We just had the warmest winter in 120 years, so we're not going to bounce back from anything In fact, I believe the winter was so warm, that we probably pulled forward some of the economic activity that might otherwise have happened in Q2, so I think Q2 is going to suffer Additionally, we had big builds in inventories in the prior 2 second quarters - that's not going to happen this quarter Our trade deficits are even bigger now than they used to be