Market Talk

What type of market will we get in 2023? According to NN IP's Siu-Kee Chan, this question is nearly impossible to answer. “In any single year over the last two or three years, we probably got it wrong,” he says. In episode 100 of Market Talk, he joins his colleagues Ewout van Schaick and Leroy Tujeehut to explore what lies ahead in the new year. Will central banks still be driving the market, which asset classes will offer the best returns and how can investors position themselves?

Over the past century, the average returns of small cap stocks have exceeded those of large caps. But in the past year or so, small caps have been lagging. Will they bounce back in 2023?

After a strong month for bond investors, we asked our LinkedIn audience whether now is the right time to start adding bonds back to your portfolio. Yes, said 63% of the respondents. But Senior Investment Strategist Fouad Mehadi still sees risk for more volatility in the short term. Have the markets become too optimistic? In our latest podcast, Fouad joins Ewout van Schaick, NN IP's Head of Multi Asset, to discuss the risks and opportunities for bond investors.

Investors applying environmental, social and governance criteria are increasingly faced with incomplete datasets, which limits their ability to make effective investment decisions. Advanced data science solutions can play a crucial role in tackling this issue, says NN IP's Head of Innovation & Research Sebastiaan Reinders. In our latest Market Talk podcast, he takes us behind the scenes of what NN IP is doing to provide investment teams with the ESG data they need.

Rising inflation coupled with recession fears: are we entering a perfect storm for Dutch residential mortgage investors? No, says Bart Bakx, NN IP's head of ABS & Mortgages. In this episode of Market Talk, he explains why this asset class might even be more attractive than a year ago.

Are we approaching the bottom in the equity markets? No, says Multi Asset Strategist Aviral Utkarsh. In this episode of Market Talk, he joins Ewout van Schaick, Head of Multi Asset, to explore how investors can navigate this market environment. They also discuss what we can learn from previous bear markets, how rising yields might impact a rebound in stocks and what needs to happen for equities to hit the bottom.

Does the increased carry provide opportunity for European high yield bonds, despite rising rates and economic uncertainty? In this episode of Market Talk, Sjors Haverkamp, Co-Lead Portfolio Manager Global and European High Yield, joins NN IP's Head of Multi Asset Ewout van Schaick to discuss the attractions and risks of this asset class.

After last week's gathering in Jackson Hole, it's clear that the markets should not expect a dovish turn from the Fed and the ECB anytime soon. In our latest Market Talk podcast, NN IP's Senior Economist Willem Verhagen joins Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset, to discuss the economic outlook and the way forward for central banks.

One of the fastest-growing segments of the fixed income market is social bonds, whose issuance has increased tenfold in the past two years alone. This surge was mainly because of new bonds that provide support for businesses and consumers in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

US stocks will outperform European equities in the second half of 2022, according to three-fourths of the respondents in our poll on LinkedIn last week. But Maarten Geerdink, NN IP's head of European equities, isn't convinced. “There are a couple of things that are benefiting European equities.” In our latest podcast, Geerdink joins Patrick Moonen, our Principal Strategist Multi-Asset, to discuss the outlook for European equities.

As sustainable finance graduated from the periphery to the core, the market became a lot more competitive, says John Goldstein, head of the Sustainable Finance Group at Goldman Sachs.

Does the recent rise in yields mark the end of a three-decade bull run in bonds? In our latest podcast, we hear from Sylvain de Ruijter, NN IP's head of fixed income rates, who joins Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset, to discuss previous bull and bear markets and the way forward for bonds.

In this special episode, our CIO Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen sits down with David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. Their conversation covers a range of topics, from the state of the global economy and the investment industry to the background of Goldman Sachs' acquisition of NN Investment Partners and the growing importance of sustainable investing. Solomon also shares his views on the global economic outlook and the differences in recession risks between Europe and the US.

A week ago, the S&P 500 was on the brink of a bear market. But then equities bounced back to record their best week since November 2020. So are we out of the woods, or will we go back to bear market territory? In our latest podcast, NN IP's head of European equities Maarten Geerdink joins Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset, to explore what lies ahead for equities.

What's the most important driver of investors' decisions? Is it rational thinking or gut feeling? Researchers at Rotterdam School of Management and NN Investment Partners explored this fascinating question in their recent study, “Affective brain activity relates to future stock market performance”.

As global bond markets continue to sell off, where can investors find shelter? Ewout van Schaick, NN IP's head of Multi Asset, talks about inflation, the extreme volatility in bond markets and why equities might be the only place to hide right now.

Sustainability investing has tended to focus on the environmental side – the E in ESG. But as the pandemic exacerbated the social inequalities in our societies, investors seem to be putting more and more emphasis on the S, the social side of things. Will this trend continue and, if so, how can investors benefit?

Will energy supply concerns over the war in Ukraine slow down the renewable energy transition? No, said 65% of the respondents in a recent poll that we posted on LinkedIn. Oskar Tijs, senior portfolio manager sustainable equity at NN IP, is firmly on their side. In our latest podcast, he joins Ewout van Schaick, NN IP's head of multi asset, to explain why the war might actually hasten the transition to renewables.

The war in Ukraine has left many people feeling powerless. Last week, NN Investment Partners stopped new investments in Russian and Belarussian securities. What else can investors do? In our latest podcast, Adrie Heinsbroek, NN IP's Chief Sustainability Officer, discusses the role and responsibility of investors and how they can put their capital to work for positive change amid this humanitarian crisis.

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has roiled the global financial markets. In this episode, Senior Economist Willem Verhagen joins Ewout van Schaick, NN IP's head of Multi Asset, to explore what the conflict means for the European economy and monetary policy.

Value stocks have clearly been outperforming growth shares in the past few months. Will this continue, or are we set for another false dawn for value investing? In our latest podcast, Nicolas Simar, Senior Portfolio Manager Euro & European High Dividend at NN Investment Partners, shares his views and explores the biggest opportunities for investors.

The markets are having a rocky start to the year, beset by fears about inflation and interest rates. In our latest podcast, Ewout van Schaick, NN IP's head of Multi Asset, and Niels Bodenheim, head of Alternative Credit, explore how alternative credit can help investors navigate the current volatility.

Is inflation transitory or here to stay? Ewout van Schaick, NN IP's head of Multi Asset, still believes inflation will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022. Robert Davis, senior portfolio manager European equities, doesn't agree. In our final podcast of the year, Van Schaick debates Davis on this hotly contested topic.

After a difficult year for emerging market assets, 2022 could provide another challenging ride. The expected Fed rate hikes bring back memories of the taper tantrum in 2013, when emerging economies suffered from stretched current accounts and over-reliance on foreign investors. In our latest podcast, Marcin Adamczyk, head of emerging market debt (EMD) at NN Investment Partners, explains why this time might be different.

European or US stocks? In this episode of Market Talk, Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset, discusses recent market developments and his outlook for equities. He is joined by Patrick Moonen, Principal Strategist Multi Asset, and Nicolas Simar, Senior Portfolio Manager Euro & European High Dividend, to explore why 2022 might become a positive year for European stocks.

This year has been a stellar year for commodities, and we've all seen the recent surge in energy prices. So, what can we expect in the years to come? In our latest podcast, Stan Verhoeven, senior portfolio manager Liquid Alternatives at NN Investment Partners, explains why we might be on the verge of a new commodity supercycle.

In our “Choppy waters” base scenario we expect a volatile 2022 as markets grapple with the normalization of economies following the unprecedented stimulus in the past 18 months. In this podcast we share the highlights from our outlook event. Listen to the view of Chief Investment Officer Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen on the risks and opportunities in the year ahead.

Where to start when discussing the current market environment? Supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, looming interest rate hikes and concerns about Chinese growth make it increasingly difficult for investors to see where markets are heading. In our latest podcast, Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset at NN Investment Partners, explores how to invest in this uncertain climate.

Last month, the green bond market passed the milestone of EUR 1 trillion in outstanding debt. In our latest podcast, client portfolio manager Douglas Farquhar explains how investors can benefit from this rapidly growing market.

A few weeks ago, most investors had never heard of Evergrande. Now some market watchers are talking about China's Lehman moment. In our latest Market Talk, Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset, and Joep Huntjens, head of Asian Fixed Income at NN Investment Partners, discuss what this debt crisis means for China and beyond.

What's the impact of Long Covid on productivity, is herd immunity still a realistic goal and how can vaccines be spread more equally across the world? Mark Belsey, a senior healthcare analyst on NN Investment Partners' European equity team, joins our latest podcast to tackle the most pressing investor questions about the pandemic.

Uncertainty in the financial markets is increasing as the Delta variant continues to spread and supply chain bottlenecks disrupt the recovery. In our latest podcast, Ewout van Schaick, NN IP's head of Multi Asset, and Senior Economist Willem Verhagen reflect on last week's Jackson Hole speech and discuss what's next in the global economic recovery.

The Covid-pandemic has accelerated the trend toward online shopping. What will happen when economies return to normal? Jeff Meys, senior investment analyst on NN Investment Partners' Global Sustainable & Impact Equity Team, joins our latest podcast to discuss the sector's growth outlook and how investors can play this trend in an ESG-friendly manner.

In this extended summer podcast, Ewout van Schaick and Marcel van de Hoef take a step back from the daily market grind to reflect on how 1.5 years of Covid has changed the game for investors. Joining them is Maarten Geerdink, NN IP's head of European equities. They cover a wide range of topics including the growing importance of high-frequency and sentiment data, the divergence between asset classes, meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and the unstoppable growth in sustainable investing.

The price of carbon allowances in the EU has soared to record highs this year and demand is poised to increase in the medium term. In our latest podcast, Koen Straetmans, senior strategist on NN Investment Partners' Multi Asset team, discusses whether the time is right for institutional investors to get involved in this emerging asset class.

Corporate earnings growth, economic numbers and improving Covid figures are all contributing to the calm positive vibe as markets bask in the summer sun. This feeling is not surprising according to NN IP's Head of Multi Asset, Ewout van Schaick. Covid restrictions are being relaxed, life is returning to normal, spirits are rising. In this week's podcast, Senior Investment Strategist Fouad Mehadi joins Ewout to reflect on some less expected developments: the recent flattening of Treasury market yields in both the US and Europe, despite the persistence of inflationary factors. Fouad explains why he is happy to maintain his duration underweight, why he currently favours high yield, and why it is important to look beyond the summer to what a chillier autumn might bring.

The use of sentiment data in investment analysis has grown precipitously over the past decade. Technological advancements have made it possible to analyse vast amounts of textual data from social media and other online sources, giving investors an up-to-the-minute understanding of how companies are perceived and what this might mean for future returns. In our latest podcast, Richard Peterson, CEO and founder of MarketPsych, joins Tjeerd van Cappelle, Head of AI Equity at NN Investment Partners, to discuss what we can glean from sentiment data, how we can apply it for improved alpha generation, and where the next frontier in sentiment analysis could lie.

In our latest Market Talk podcast, Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset, comments on the surge in US April inflation data. He notes that the gradual re-opening of developed economies is being accompanied by a release of pent-up demand. Suppliers of many goods and service had meanwhile reduced supply in anticipation of a longer recession, which has created tight supply in parts of the labour market, acute shortages in some materials, major bottlenecks in supply chains and rising transportation costs and prices for many commodities.

In our latest podcast, we talk to Anil Katarya, global head of investment grade credit at Voya Investment Management in Atlanta. After a surprisingly resilient 2020, when markets, including US credits, navigated their way through the Covid-19 storm on a wave of central bank liquidity and government stimulus, the first quarter of 2021 has been more mixed. So where do we go from here? Anil, who manages NN IP's US IG Credit strategy, emphasizes that interest rates and inflation are only part of the story for credit investors. US companies have a dominant position and are set to benefit from a strong global recovery. As an active investor with a bottom-up approach in a market with around 700 issuers, you really have to do your homework. But if you do, there are plenty of solid investment stories with bonds that offer attractive risk reward profiles.

Alistair Perkins, head of project finance and infrastructure debt at NN IP, has been involved in financing infrastructure projects for over 20 years. The types of deals have not really changed. He and his team still provide financing for government buildings, social housing, public transport, fibre-optic networks and hospitals, for example. Most of the projects have clear social benefits and positively affect many people's lives. What has changed is the focus. In the early days, only the financial benefits and risks were evaluated. Now, an increasing number of investors want to make a positive impact, and that means also finding investments that contribute to the “S” of ESG. In this week's podcast, Alistair explains why private debt is so well-suited to achieving social impact and looks at some of the challenges investors face when it comes to putting a value on social factors.

How can investors put their money to work for a better future? One way is through investing in listed equities whose products and services are tackling societal and environmental challenges. Impact equity investors focus not just on companies' ESG risks but also on how they are serving their broader stakeholders: customers, local communities and the world beyond. In our latest podcast, Marina Iodice, senior portfolio impact equities, explains the chain of events that led her to impact investing, why investing for impact doesn't mean sacrificing returns, and how the Covid-19 crisis has changed her thinking on societal and environmental challenges.

Investors' attention and attraction to China has been growing for some years. Financial markets are becoming more accessible, economic reform programmes have momentum and growth prospects look better than in the developed world and in most other emerging markets. In this edition of Market Talk, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist Maar-ten-Jan Bakkum discusses the current climate for investors in this fast-growing and fast-moving market.

In January, we laid out our expectations for how the recovery could evolve throughout 2021 and beyond. Three months later, many of the trends we anticipated have materialized in the space of a single quarter. “We saw a fast decline in economic activity last year, a fast recovery ever since, a fast policy reaction and now a continued recovery that's just very fast from a historical perspective,” said Marco Willner, head of investment strategy, in our latest Market Talk podcast. Animal spirits – the herding behaviour of investors – have also played a central role in the speed of the recovery. Looking ahead, could the high levels of bullishness in the market lead to a correction later this year? A range of factors will determine this, including inflation expectations and equity market behaviour, according to Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset. “Over-bullishness itself doesn't create a sell-off. The market can become more vulnerable to a correction, but you still need a trigger.”

After a year of focusing on the pandemic and as the recovery gains momentum, financial markets are turning their attention to another potentially disruptive force. In today's podcast, two NN IP experts talk inflation: Jaco Rouw, senior portfolio manager global fixed income, and Willem Verhagen, senior economist. They explore whether a short-term uptick could signal the start of a new trend towards higher long-term inflation and how, after a decade of ultra-low inflation, investors should go about preparing for what could be the beginning of a new regime.

“My biggest fear this time last year was that there would be so much focus on how to manage the crisis from a financial perspective that people would forget about climate, about social inequalities,” says Petra Stassen, senior responsible investment specialist. “But actually, the opposite happened.” In our latest podcast, Petra and Chief Sustainability Officer Adrie Heinsbroek look back at the turbulent year behind us and explore questions stemming from our just-released Responsible Investing Report 2020. They discuss how Covid-19 and sustainability regulations are altering the landscape for responsible investing, what new trends are on the horizon, and how we tackle the thorny questions that often arise in our efforts to make a positive difference. “Some topics are not as simple as they appear on paper,” explains Adrie. “Investing responsibly is not just about mathematics. It's about providing context and conversations.”

Joukje Janssen, lead partner for sustainable finance at PwC and Adrie Heinsbroek, NN IP's chief sustainability officer, have been looking forward to 10 March 2021 for a while now. Today the first stage in the EU's new sustainable finance regulatory framework comes into effect. This marks the first official step towards a greener Europe, but is just one element in a process that, for some, started months or even years ago. In today's podcast Joukje and Adrie discuss what this milestone means to them and the effect it will have on the work they do.

The spike in government bond yields last week suggests that investors are pricing in a recovery in global growth and inflation as the Covid-19 vaccine roll-out continues. Still, the speed of the roll-out is not the only determining factor in the return to normality, as Marc Franklin, head of flexible multi asset, explains in our latest podcast. The policy response will play a key role, as governments will need to lead from the front in terms of easing restrictions. The rise in potentially vaccine-resistant virus mutations could also be a roadblock on the path to recovery, according to Mark Belsey, senior investment analyst. The coming months will no doubt bring further surprises as new strains evolve, changing the way we approach the virus. “We've come a long way in the past few months, but we're not out of the woods yet.”

Why trade finance? As far as Suresh Hegde, head of structured private debt, is concerned, its appeal is that “It's real, it's tangible and you can touch it.” Trade finance supports the physical sale of a broad range of products by giving parties all over the world the trust and security they need to trade with each other. In the case of NN IP's trade finance strategy, these are mostly transactions in commodities such as agricultural goods, foodstuffs and metals, where ESG factors are also taken into account. Why now? Institutional investors are looking for new investment vehicles and this asset class offers short duration and less exposure to market movements, while paying an attractive yield.

Markets remain optimistic even in the face of weak jobs data, prolonged lockdowns and delays in rolling out Covid-19 vaccines. Many of the lost jobs are in lockdown-driven sectors and are likely to return as restrictions are pared back, and the number of vaccines ready for distribution is increasing, according to Marc Franklin, head of Flexible Multi Asset. “People are saying that in a few months' time, a high percentage of the population will be vaccinated, and these lock-down restrictions can ultimately be lifted or pared back,” he says. “The market is thinking more about what will happen after this pandemic,” said Ewout van Schaick, head of Multi Asset. “If you want to play the cyclical recovery, which we still expect later this year, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Make it a diversified portfolio of bets.”

What lies ahead for emerging market debt in 2021, and where can investors find value? For Marcin Adamczyk and Bregje Roosenboom, the answer lies in divergence. The asset class should see a substantial growth recovery, but it will be unevenly spread across regions and time periods as countries follow different paths to normalization. This divergence is already visible, as emerging Asia has led the recovery so far while the high yield segment still appears undervalued relative to our projections. In this environment, active management with a focus on fundamentals is key to locating opportunities. Countries that can best adjust to the new normal stand to benefit most from the growth recovery and the ongoing search for yield.

“It almost seems as if we are living in a different universe” says Roel Jansen, co-lead portfolio manager of NN IP's Euro Investment Grade Credit strategy. If you look at the IG space over the last couple of months, investors seem to have zoomed in on loose monetary policy and the light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel, and to have tuned out all the other “noise”. The calm market belies a busy work environment, according to fellow Co-lead Alfred Meinema, where there is plenty of interest in the strategy. But with spreads virtually back at early 2020 levels and low yields, what is the appeal of Euro IG? Jansen and Meinema both agree: a lot of the upside is that there is very little downside. With negative yields on safe government paper, institutional investors are moving into IG where they can get a small positive yield without worrying about getting their money back. A trend that looks set to continue.