The Flow: Real Estate and Money Show

ONE HIKE RARELY STAYS ONE HIKE

The Bank of Canada did nothing on September 2nd. Seventh hold in a row. So why did the fixed rate market start pushing up?I got asked that about a dozen times last week, and everybody in the country is getting it wrong.

In this episode, Alex McFadyen breaks down the recent economic data, the Bank of Canada's upcoming decision, and how tariffs and inflation impact mortgage rates and the housing market. He explains complex economic concepts in a clear way to help Canadians understand what it means for their finances.takeawaysCanada's GDP growth in Q2 was 3.3%, exceeding the Bank of Canada's forecast.Potential output is the growth rate that keeps inflation stable, currently at 1.2%.Tariffs and trade tensions increase economic uncertainty, affecting interest rate decisions.The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 2.25% in the upcoming meeting.Mortgage rates are rising as bond yields increase, impacting fixed-rate loans.Market expects no rate cuts in the near term due to strong growth and inflation data.Homeowners should review their mortgage terms and consider prepayment penalties.Economic uncertainty from tariffs could slow employment and housing demand.

In this episode, Alex McFadyen discusses how recent trade tensions and tariffs between the US and Canada could impact mortgage rates, housing, and the broader economy. He explains the mechanisms behind these effects and offers practical advice for homeowners and prospective buyers navigating uncertain times.Impact of US-Canada trade war on mortgage ratesHow tariffs influence inflation and interest ratesDifferences between fixed and variable mortgage ratesThe effect of trade tensions on employment and growthStrategic mortgage planning during economic uncertainty

You can fix almost anything about a property. You can't fix what it is on paper. These are the five property types I check the financing on before anything else, and one of them can leave you finding $200,000 in cash that you didn't plan for.I walk through what each one is, exactly where to spot it on thelisting before you write an offer, and what I'd do if I already owned one. Leaseholds and acreages both have good buys in them, so this isn't a list of things nobody should touch. It's a list of things worth a phone call before your subject removal date.Send the listing to whoever is handling your financing. It takes half a day to find out, and it's the cheapest question you'll ask all deal.CHAPTERS0:00 The five, and the one that costs $200,0001:33 Leasehold: you own the building, not the land5:08 Co-op: shares in a corporation, not a title7:56 Micro units: the square footage lenders won't touch10:16 Acreage: what a lender actually counts13:10 Title risk: what the Cowichan ruling changed16:15 When it's still fine to buy one anyway17:42 The one thing to do before subject removalAlex McFadyen is a mortgage broker in British Columbia Flow Mortgage Co works with roughly 500 families a year across BC.

Alex McFadyen discusses the intricacies of reverse mortgages in Canada, including recent rate changes, different options available, and how to determine if a reverse mortgage is right for you or your parents.We cover:Recent rate cuts by Canadian reverse mortgage lendersHow reverse mortgages work and who qualifiesComparison of reverse mortgage, line of credit, and traditional refinanceImpact of interest compounding and rate type on costsImportance of understanding future balance and property value growth

On July 21, the US hit $28 billion of Canadian exports with 50% tariffs under a 1930 law with no confirmed use in roughly 90 years. They take effect August 19, and there's no CUSMAexemption this time. Last tariff war, Canadian fixed mortgage rates fell. This time opened the other way, and the gap is $264 a month on a $600,000 renewal.

Everyone online says a 30-year mortgage is a trap that costs you an extra $73,000. I sit with clients on this every single week, and on its own that number is close to useless. This is what the clickbait leaves out.On a $500,000 mortgage, going from a 25-year to a 30-year amortization does add about $73,000 in interest. That part is true. But in today's dollars it's closer to $48,000, more than half of it lands after year 20, and almost nobody keeps a mortgage the full 30 years anyway. A 30-year sets a minimum payment, not a 30-year sentence, and used the right way it's a wealth tool.In this one I break down the real math the trap posts skip, the two false assumptions it's built on, a real client who went back to 30 on purpose and freed up $950 a month, and who should actually take the 30 (and who definitely shouldn't).Follow me instagram.com/themortgagepug

The Bank of Canada held rates again.In this video, I break down why the Bank of Canada's July 15th rate hold may not bring the relief many Canadians were hoping for, especially if your mortgage is renewing in 2026.I covered:Why the Bank of Canada held rates againWhy inflation at 3.2% mattersWhy gas and oil prices are complicating the dataWhy fixed rates are not controlled directly by the Bank of CanadaHow US inflation and the Fed can affect Canadian mortgage ratesWhy 2026 renewals are still a major riskWhy waiting for lower rates may not save you moneyWhat homeowners should do before their renewal dateComment BOC and I'll send you the Bank of Canada decision playbook.------

A trillion dollars will transfer from boomers to heirs between 2023-2026.Half of Canada's household wealth is held by boomers.Reverse mortgage volumes are increasing fivefold year over year.31% of first-time homebuyers receive family help, with an average gift of $115,000.Parents can help their kids buy homes through gifts, co-signing, or reverse mortgages.Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/themortgageplugLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexmcfadyen

Fixed rates just caught up to variable. On today's rate sheets they're only 15-35 basis points apart. Alex breaks down why fixed and variable mortgage rates actually move for completely different reasons, what real StatCan data says about how Canadians have been choosing between them for the past two years, and the exact 4-step math to figure out which one is right for your file. Free Fixed or Variable PREPARE quiz: studio.getflowmortgage.ca/quizFollow me: www.instagram.com/themortgagepug

Last week Carney and Eby committed up to $3.2 billion to buy 2,200+ empty Vancouver condos and stop prices from falling. I'm a BC mortgage broker, and I walk through what the money actually does, who it helps and who gets nothing, how we've done this before, the immigration and rate cuts that really caused the glut, where prices could go through 2028, and whether you should be buying right now.

Some Canadian homeowners are about to hit a mortgage renewal problem they did not see coming.They made their payments. They did nothing wrong. But their home value dropped.And now, when their mortgage comes up for renewal, they may not have enough equity to refinance, switch lenders, or restructure their debt.In this episode, I break down the difference between a renewal, a refinance, and a switch, because they are not the same thing. I also explain why some homeowners may be stuck taking whatever their current lender offers, even if the rate is not competitive.We cover:Why falling home values can remove mortgage optionsThe difference between renewing, refinancing, and switching lendersWhy insured mortgages may still have more flexibilityHow banks handle renewal offersWhy starting early mattersWhat this could mean for the housing marketWhat homeowners should do before signing a renewalThe big lesson: your renewal is not just about finding the lowest rate.It is about understanding your options before they disappear.If your mortgage is coming up for renewal, or you are worried about equity, debt, or cash flow, this episode will help you understand what to look at before making a decision.Follow me @themortgagepug

Last week Trump looked at 4.2% American inflation and said he loves it. Days later the war he blamed for it started to end and oil dropped. Both halves of that reach your Canadian mortgage. Alex walks the whole chain: why a president's celebrating inflation is reckless when the U.S. spends about a trillion dollars a year just on debt interest, how the breaking US-Iran deal pulled the war premium out of oil, why cheaper oil could ease bond yields and your fixed rate,the catch for Canada as an oil producer, and where the Bank of Canada fits. This is breaking news, so the deal is treated as announced and fragile, with the signing set for June 19.

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on June 10, 2026, for the fifth straight time. Alex breaks down what it means for your mortgage: why fixed rates are going the wrong way and the rate-hike risk Macklem hinted at, and how to think about renewing or buying right now.Renewing in the next 18 months? Free renewal calculator:https://www.getflowmortgage.ca/smart/calculatorFOLLOW ME on InstagramFREE RESOURCES MENTIONED:• Oil, Bonds & Your Mortgage (how yields actually move your rate):https://getflowmortgage.ca/free/rate-protection• The PREPARE Framework — 7 questions before you pick fixed or variable:https://getflowmortgage.ca/free/fixed-vs-variable

The Bank of Canada decides on June 10, and last week's jobs report may have just taken the rate cut you were budgeting for offthe table. Canada added 88,000 jobs in May against a forecast of 10,000, and bond yields jumped on the news. In this one Ibreak down what that actually does to fixed vs variable, why a strong economy makes your fixed rate more expensive, and how to plan your renewal around it.

Is Canada really in a recession?

PREPARE FRAMEWORK: https://mbp.getflowmortgage.ca/prepareframeworkThe Bank of Canada buried a staff paper showing 1 in 10 Canadians renewing their mortgage in 2026 are looking at a payment increase of over 40%, and the headlines calling the renewal wave "over" are averaging out the people getting crushed with the people getting relief. The borrowers taking the hit aren't random. They're 2021 variable rate fixed payment holders who hit their trigger rate, watched their amortization stretch to 50, 60, even 70 years, and are now about to have their payment completely rebuilt from scratch. It's not a rate shock, it's an amortization shock, and most people don't even know the difference. Before you renew, Alex runs through his PREPARE framework, seven questions covering payment stability, risk tolerance, equity, future plans, affordability, rate cycle position, and employment stability, because fixed versus variable is the answer, not the starting question.

Smart Renewal Playbook: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cGdU8O_Uzow_mMXDb_w1fhasFBk3hBN2/view?mcp_token=eyJwaWQiOjMxNTgzMDI2ODQ2OTUyNiwic2lkIjoxOTk2NDE3MDQ2LCJheCI6IjdhMmU1NWI2MGVhZmI4NjllY2YxOTJkMGIwYmFjMWYzIiwidHMiOjE3NzU1MzAzMjAsImV4cCI6MTc3Nzk0OTUyMH0.HZIdixBMpdDLuLZgL9jVtP22hAabzd0OtCDqUWke-KUCanadian housing isn't crashing nationally, it's splitting. Toronto and Vancouver are the two markets actually struggling, with Toronto prices down 28% year over year and delinquencies climbing. Meanwhile, Quebec, Halifax, Calgary, and Ottawa are posting record prices and strong sales. National headlines are averaging it all together and creating a completely distorted picture. Where you live determines your reality right now, and making decisions based on national data could cost you. Alex breaks down the actual CMHC, Royal LePage, and TransUnion numbers by city so you know exactly where you stand.

The government announced what looks like a massive win for home buyers, but the math tells a different story. Alex breaks down all four housing announcements that dropped in the same week, including Bill C-4's GST rebate, the Ontario HST removal, $1.7 billion in federal funding to provinces, and the Carney-Ford development charge cuts. He runs the actual numbers on what buyers in BC, Alberta, and Ontario will save, explains why the $130,000 headline figure applies to almost nobody, and connects the dots on why the same week these "buyer savings" were announced, Ontario quietly backed a $1.3 billion fund to buy up 23,000 unsold condos from developers who couldn't sell them. If you're a first-time buyer sitting on the sidelines right now, this one is worth your time.

Banks across Canada are quietly cancelling credit lines and credit cards for thousands of customers, many with 800+ credit scores and perfect payment histories. Alex breaks down the real reasons behind this wave of closures, from the 84,000 jobs lost in February, to rising bond yields, a military conflict disrupting oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and new OSFI capital requirements forcing banks to clean up their balance sheets. If your credit line has been cut or you're worried it might be next, this episode tells you exactly what to do before your safety net disappears.

The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% while deputy governor Carolyn Rogers made headlines by openly stating house prices need to correct for affordability, a major shift from the central bank's usual rhetoric. The problem is the bank is completely trapped, as cutting rates risks inflation while hiking rates would tank an already bleeding economy that lost 84,000 jobs in February. Canada's housing market is splitting in two, with Toronto and BC down significantly while Quebec and Calgary are still climbing. For homeowners, buyers, and renewers, the window to act is now before conditions get worse.

Three weeks ago, five-year fixed mortgage rates were sitting in the high threes. Today, most lenders are above 4%. The reason has nothing to do with Canada's housing market, your credit, or the Bank of Canada. A US-Israel strike on Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, oil jumped from $70 to over $100 a barrel, bond yields spiked, and lenders passed every basis point straight to your mortgage payment. In this episode, Alex breaks down exactly how that chain of events works, where rates are heading, why the Bank of Canada is completely stuck, and what you should actually do right now if you have a renewal coming up.

Equity Assessment tool - https://www.getflowmortgage.ca/equity/assessmentThe headline says 450,000 Canadians missed their mortgage payments. That number is misleading, but the real data underneath it is actually more concerning. Mortgage broker Alex McFadyen breaks down what the Bank of Canada study actually found, why 2026 is shaping up to be a critical year for homeowners, and what the warning signs look like before most people even realize they're in trouble.

Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% but the rate hold is the least interesting part.Tiff Macklem basically went on TV and said he wants to cut but can't. The economy is contracting, groceries are up 30% since 2021, oil just jumped from $60 to $100 a barrel, and the average Canadian filing for insolvency is carrying $67K in unsecured debt before they've even hit their mortgage renewal.The big banks can't agree on what happens next. TD says hold through 2026. BMO says hold through 2027. RBC says a rate hike to 3.25% by end of 2027. Scotiabank is calling a 50 basis point hike in the second half of 2026 and the bond market is currently pricing in a 73% chance they're right.If you're on a variable rate, the thesis just took a hit. If you're renewing in the next 8 to 12 months, don't wait for April 29th. Rates are already moving up regardless of what the BOC does next.

MORTGAGE CALCULATOR: https://app.canadianmortgageapp.com/app/flowmortgageco Canada lost 84,000 jobs in February, oil crossed $100 a barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, and the Bank of Canada rate decision lands March 18th. All three are connected and they all hit your mortgage payment.The BOC is stuck. Cutting rates pours fuel on oil-driven inflation. Hiking crushes an economy already shedding jobs. So they hold, and over a million Canadians renewing their mortgage this year get no relief.If you're renewing in the next six months, start the process now, lock in an approval while you're still employed, and don't wait to see what the BOC says.

Equity Tax Report -https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/gensqueeze/pages/6403/attachments/original/1639772589/GenSqueeze_Nov26.dat?1639772589WealthFlow Newsletter - Weekly market data & Economic Updates https://zfrmz.com/4hiodTOpjIgqNIy7fvmMThis podcast breaks down the proposed “home equity surtax” on Canadian primary residences over $1 million and explains that, despite scary headlines, it is not current government policy. Alex walks through real examples showing most homeowners would pay nothing, while higher-value homes could face annual surtaxes that are meaningful but still far smaller than a full capital gains-style tax. His main takeaway is to pay attention, especially if you own a home over $1.5 million, but not to panic or make financial decisions based on fear because this is still only a proposal, not a law.

Canadian banks are quietly slashing credit limits with zero warning, and 46,000 BMO customers just found out the hard way. Mortgage broker Alex McFadyen breaks down why this is happening, the three red flags that put your credit line at risk, and the simple steps you can take right now to protect yourself before the banks make the decision for you.

Tariffs changed, but housing is still getting squeezed. The big 35% tariffs were struck down, a new 10% tariff came in, and the high steel, aluminum, and lumber tariffs stayed. That keeps build and renovation costs rising, slows new construction, and adds pressure on supply. At the same time, the Bank of Canada is stuck because tariffs keep inflation sticky, so big rate cuts are not likely. With millions renewing from very low rates to much higher payments, Alex's takeaway is to shop your renewal instead of signing the bank's first offer, and watch the next key dates that could shift the outlook fast.

The federal GST rebate being discussed could return up to $50,000 to eligible first-time home buyers purchasing qualifying new construction. In this episode, we break down what it actually covers, the real-world savings most buyers will see (often closer to ~$27,000 depending on price), who qualifies, and why it could still push prices higher in some markets. We also explain how to stack the GST rebate with the FHSA, Home Buyers' Plan, federal tax credits, and provincial programs—plus practical tips so you don't build your plan around the headline number.

Canada was just ranked by the BIS as having the biggest real home price drop among advanced economies. Even after seven Bank of Canada rate cuts, prices and sales are still falling while listings rise, especially in Toronto and Vancouver because of condo oversupply, weaker confidence, and slowing demand. The key point is Canada is not one market, but the spring recovery narrative may be wrong in major cities and 2026 renewals could keep pressure on prices.

BC's Feb 17, 2026 budget cuts $1.4B from housing over three years and shuts the Community Housing Fund indefinitely, while adding several tax/cost changes that make building harder. Alex says this will reduce new supply, risking a construction drought and much higher prices later, with BCREA warning up to +27% by 2032. One bright spot: a bigger PTT exemption for purpose-built rentals.

Alex Breaks down his trip in Mexico and decides if it's worth it to buy investment properties in this country.

Rates have stabilized and affordability has improved compared to the peak, so interest rates aren't the main barrier for many buyers anymore. The market is still frozen because bigger forces are hitting demand and confidence, including major immigration cuts that could shrink population, rising rental vacancies and falling rents, higher unemployment and job uncertainty, and record-high listings. The takeaway is to stop waiting for rates to “save” the market and instead make a decision based on your numbers, job security, and a 3 to 7 year plan.

Alex explains how Trump openly said he wants home prices to rise, which protects existing homeowners but makes it harder for new buyers, and he argues this approach avoids solving affordability at the source. He compares Canada and the U.S. and says Canada's affordability problem is worse, with housing costs taking a bigger share of income and fewer cities meeting affordability benchmarks. His takeaway is to stop waiting for politics to fix housing and instead run your numbers, understand your options, and choose fixed versus variable based on how much payment risk you can handle.