The Justice Department is seeking to unseal the search warrant of President Trump's home. U.S. monkeypox cases have doubled, according to the CDC. NORAD says Russian military planes skirted close to the U.S. airspace at least three times this week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending August 6th, 2022... the Fed's next move, a mortgage rate rollback for home buyers, and a new all-time high for single-family rents.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. Federal Reserve policymakers say they are “nowhere near” the end of their fight against inflation. Four Fed Presidents spoke out on Tuesday, August 2nd, about their resolve to get inflation back down to 2%. San Francisco Fed Chief Mary Daly said that she is currently seeing a 50 basis point rate hike as appropriate in September, but she says: “If we just see inflation roaring ahead undauntedly, the labor market showing no signs of slowing, then we'll be in a different position where a 75-basis-point increase might be more appropriate.” Comments from the other three Fed Presidents were similar. (1)And then there was a screamingly strong jobs report a few days later. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that hiring in July exceeded expectations. Nonfarm payrolls were up 528,000, and the unemployment rate dipped lower, to 3.5%. To put this in perspective, in the years leading up to 2020 when the economy was robust, job creation was closer to 195,000 per month on average.The unemployment rate is now back to its pre-pandemic level. As reported by MarketWatch, it's tied for the lowest level since 1969. (2) Some economists see the strong jobs report as signs that the Federal Reserve will lean toward a more aggressive rate hike in September. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk said in a CNBC report: “This is hot. For the Fed, this is another 75 basis point hike.” (3)The unemployment report shows a slightly elevated level of new claims. During the last week of July, 260,000 people applied for benefits which is an increase of 6,000 from the week before. The number of continuing claims was also higher by about 48,000. That brings the total number of continuing claims up to about 1.42 million, which is the highest level since April. (4)A new report on home price growth shows that year-over-year prices were up 18.2% in June. On a month-to-month basis, the CoreLogic report says they were up .6% for the 125th consecutive month of higher prices. This is more inflationary news that may convince the Fed to be more aggressive with rate future hikes. However, the report does shows that price growth is slowing down. CoreLogic expects it to drop to 4.3% by next June. (5)Higher home prices also increase homeowner equity. CoreLogic says the average borrower had $280,000 in home equity at the end of the first quarter. That's a gain of about $64,000 over the past year, and a gain of about $125,000 over five years. (6) Those folks expecting a housing crash will have to consider why homeowners with so much equity and low fixed rate mortgage payments would suddenly abandon their homes. Higher home prices are slowing sales, and that's driving up inventory levels, but they are still nowhere they need to be. According to Realtor.com, active listings are about 30% higher than they were a year ago but are less than half of what they were in June of 2019 and about two-thirds of where they were in June of 2020. The good news is that homebuyers have a few more homes to choose from and a little extra time to make a decision, but only a little extra time. The Realtor.com trends report says that homes are spending just ONE extra day on the market compared to last year.(7)New home builders are also experiencing a sales slowdown and higher inventory levels. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, there are more than nine months supply of newly-built homes on the market. However, it can be difficult to gauge new home inventory because many of those homes are experiencing construction delays and not sales delays. (8)Another sign of the housing market slowdown is a sharp drop in construction spending. The Commerce Department reported a 1.1% decrease in June. Private residential construction took the biggest hit. It was down 1.6%. (9) Ironically, the construction of new homes is what's needed to increase supply, yet builders are generally the first to get hit with higher interest rates. A slow down in new home construction could mean continued bidding wars on existing homes in growth markets.Mortgage RatesHome buyers are getting a break right now on their mortgage rates. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped below 4% for the week ending August 4th. They dropped 31 basis points to an average of 4.99%. The 15-year dropped 32 points to 4.26%. Freddie Mac's Chief Economist, Sam Khater, says: “Mortgage rates remain volatile due to the tug of war between inflationary pressures and a clear slowdown in economic growth.” (10)You may be wondering why mortgage rates have gone down when the Fed fund rate is going up. Mortgage rates are generally tied to the 10-year Treasury as mortgage backed securities attract the same type of investor. With the Fed raising rates aggressively, big investors are worried it will create a recession, so they seek the safety of bonds and MBS's. These investors also may believe that we've hit a peak in inflation. Otherwise they would invest in inflationary stocks instead of bonds. In other news making headlines... Single-Family Rent GrowthDemand continues to grow for single-family rentals as more and more potential homebuyers are priced out of the market. And that's pushing rents higher. A new report from Yardi Matrix says the average single-family asking rent rose $23 in June, to an all-time high of $2,071. (11)Rent growth is slowing for both single-family and multi-family rentals. The report says that year-over-year single-family rent growth has dropped 90 basis points, to an annual rate of 11.8%.House Approves Remote NotarizationThe U.S. House approved legislation that would make remote online notarizations possible in all 50 states. The bill will make it easier to close a deal without having the notary and the person signing the agreement in the same room. During the pandemic, agents in many states had to arrange for drive-by closings, with social distancing. (12) The pandemic also inspired almost half the states to allow for remote notarizations. The National Association of Realtors pushed for a national bill to support the demand for virtual sales and closings in all 50 states, even though there's less concern now about pandemic-related safety measures. The bill is now pending consideration in the Senate. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. I would also like to share some other exciting news. Within the last few weeks, we hit a big milestone for Real Estate News for Investors. It's been six-and-a-half years since our first news podcast, and we have now posted our 1200th show! We are currently posting two or three podcasts a week for real estate professionals. Set your podcast player to have them automatically downloaded, so you don't miss any! And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/daly-says-fed-nowhere-near-done-on-curbing-high-infation-rate2 -https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-daly-34-reasonable-place-get-by-year-end-rates-2022-08-03/3 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.html4 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-unemployment-claims-climb-to-260-000-and-stick-near-nine-month-high-11659616784?mod=economy-politics5 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/6 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/podcast-vodcast/oce-monthly/homeowner-equity-reached-record-level-in-early-2022/7 -https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-july-30-2022/8 -https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR9 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-fell-sharply-in-june-11659363237?mod=economic-report10 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms11 -https://rentalhousingjournal.com/average-rents-rise-to-all-time-high-in-june/?utm_source=Master+Vendors&utm_campaign=a590da3d77-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_07_20_02_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_4780df7d33-a590da3d77-11392877312 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/07/28/remote-online-notarization-is-one-step-closer
The suspected gunman who sent beachgoers into a panic in Waikiki may have been involved in a drug deal just moments before, according to witnesses and police sources. Actor Ezra Miller has been charged with felony burglary in Vermont, the latest in a string of incidents involving the embattled star of “The Flash.” The sale or rental of body boards made of polystyrene are now banned in Maui County. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A man reportedly carrying a gun on a Waikiki beach triggers a scare that left people running in all directions. Actor Roger Mosely, best known for his role in the eighties version of Magnum P.I., has passed away. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending July 30th, 2022... a negative GDP report, inflation heads higher, and the Fed's latest rate hike. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. The Federal Reserve carried out its fourth rate hike this year to slow inflation, and the second increase of .75%. That puts the top end of the overnight lending rate at 2.5%. Higher rates make it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money and that helps slow the economy, and the rate of inflation. (1)The latest reading on inflation was a report on the PCE or Personal Consumer Expenditure Index. That shows a 1% increase in June to a yearly rate of 6.8%, which is the highest since January of 1982. When you eliminate fuel and food, the core PCE is 4.8%. The Federal Reserve considers the PCE to be more accurate than the CPI because it takes into account other variables, such as consumers shopping for different, lower-priced items. (2)Fed Chief Jerome Powell has said repeatedly that inflation is too high, but he said during a press conference after the latest rate hike, that the U.S. is not in a recession despite a second quarter of negative economic growth. The government says the economy shrank at an annual pace of -.9% in Q2. That's after a -1.6% loss of economic activity in Q1. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is the standard definition of a recession, but thanks to a number of things bolstering the economy, such as a strong job market, many economists, including Fed Chief Powell, don't believe we're there yet. (3) Powell said several times that the central bank will do whatever it takes to control inflation, which may put the U.S. into a recession at some point. He suggested more rate hikes in the coming months but didn't give any forward guidance because the situation is so volatile. The Fed expects short-term interest rates to hit 3.5% by the end of the year. Some economists are predicting a 50 point hike in the next meeting followed by two 25 point hikes. (4)Initial jobless claims had been slowly rising, but were about 5,000 applications lower last week. The Labor Department says they fell to a total of 256,000. Ongoing claims were also lower. They were down 25,000 to 1.36 million. (5)On to the housing market…New home sales fell to their lowest level since the pandemic began. They were down 8.1% in June to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 590,000. The year-over-year drop is 17.4%. Many consumers can't afford a high-priced home combined with a higher mortgage rate. The median sales price of a new home was $402,400 in May. (6)Pending home sales for existing homes also tumbled in June. According to the National Association of Realtors, they were down 8.6% for the month and 20% year-over-year. As MarketWatch reports, potential home buyers are spooked by high home prices and inflation in general, higher mortgage rates, and talk of a recession. NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says that buying a home in June of this year was 80% more expensive than it was in 2019. (7)*But home price growth has started to slow down. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index shows a year-over-year price growth of 19.7%. That's down from 20.6% in April. (8) Keep in mind that the Case Schiller index is a lagging indicator, and a lot has changed in the market since May. As for consumer thoughts on the economy…The Conference Board reports that confidence levels fell for a third month in a row to a reading of 95.7. Economists like to say that consumer spending is still robust, but the International Monetary Fund says that's at higher income levels. One member of the Conference Board, Lynn Franco, says that consumers will likely face “headwinds” over the next six months as they deal with inflation and additional rate hikes. (9) A survey on consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan shows similar results. It was up slightly at the end of July but is still near the lowest level on record. (10)Mortgage RatesMortgage rates are falling as home buyers sit on the sidelines. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 24 basis points last week to 5.3%. The 15-year was down 17 points to 4.58%. (11)In other news making headlines...Will the Latest Rate Hike Impact Mortgages?The Fed's rate-hiking plan has created concern that mortgage rates will continue to move higher. The two are not directly related, although higher short-term rates often do influence mortgage rates. But NAR's Lawrence Yun doesn't think mortgage rates will move much higher this year. He says: “The long-term bond market on which mortgage rates are generally priced has mostly priced in all future actions by the Fed and may have already peaked with the 10-year Treasury shooting up 3.5% in mid-June.” (12)He feels that the 30-year fixed will settle down at 5.5 to 6% for the rest of the year. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links.If you'd like more news on the housing market, please go to newsforinvestors.com and check on other podcasts you may have missed. You'll also find hundreds of webinars and articles on the housing market at our website. If you haven't joined RealWealth, you can sign up for free. That will give you access to our investor portal where you'll find details on specific single-family rental markets.And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-hikes-rates-by-0-75-percentage-points-and-signals-more-hikes-coming-11658944875?mod=home-page2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-pce-inflation-and-consumer-spending-11659096833?mod=economic-report3 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-gdp-11659010141?mod=economy-politics4 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/was-feds-powell-dovish-or-not-4-key-takeaways-from-todays-press-conference-11658965985?mod=federal-reserve5 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-retreat-after-hitting-highest-level-in-eight-months-11659012115?mod=economic-report6 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-fall-in-june-to-the-lowest-level-since-the-pandemic-11658845189?mod=mw_latestnews7 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-pending-home-sales-tumble-in-june-11658930424?mod=mw_latestnews8 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-prices-slip-in-may-from-record-high-in-prior-month-case-shiller-11658840473?mod=economic-report9 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-confidence-declines-for-third-straight-month-in-june-11658845555?mod=bnbh_mwarticle10 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-pessimistic-about-inflation-and-the-economy-sentiment-poll-shows-11659104044?mod=economic-report11 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms12 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/07/28/2nd-historic-fed-rate-hike-unlikely-to-further-damage-mortgage-borrowers