In this episode of Equitably Speaking, Monda R. Webb, Single-Family Affordable Lending Manager at Freddie Mac and former top originator and financial coach, Dr. Lynn Richardson discuss practical tips for mortgage professionals who want to create a sustainable book of business with borrowers in underserved communities.
Hear veteran risk manager, advisor and professor Clifford Rossi's viewpoints on trends, threats and opportunities in the commercial and residential real estate markets. The past couple of years have been an extremely challenging time for risk practitioners charged with measuring and managing real estate risk. In both commercial real estate and residential real estate, concerns have been raised globally about interest rates, inflation and economic uncertainty. Indeed, in a recent Federal Reserve survey on salient risks – part of the Fed's October Financial Stability Report – roughly 75 percent of respondents cited the potential for “large losses on CRE and residential real estate.” CRE, more specifically, has been plagued by escalating vacancy rates for office buildings, thanks in part to the remote work trend that started during the pandemic and has since taken off. Residential real estate, meanwhile, has dealt with worries about housing affordability. As a former CRO at multiple banks and as an ex-senior risk manager at Fannie Mae and Freddi Mac, Cliff Rossi, our honored guest today, knows all about the CRE and residential real estate risks facing financial institutions today. Cliff, the current Director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland (UMD), speaks with GARP editorial director Robert Sales about global real estate concerns and challenges, and offers advice on how firms can more effectively manage their exposures. SPEAKER'S BIO: Clifford Rossi (PhD) is the Director of the Smith Enterprise Risk Consortium at the University of Maryland (UMD) and a Professor-of-the-Practice and Executive-in-Residence at UMD's Robert H. Smith School of Business. He is also the author of GARP's monthly “CRO Outlook” column. Prior to entering academia, Rossi had nearly 25 years of experience in banking and government, having held senior executive roles in risk management at several of the largest financial services companies. His most recent position was Managing Director and Chief Risk Officer for Citigroup's Consumer Lending Group, where he was responsible for overseeing the risk of a $300+B global portfolio of mortgage, home equity, student loans and auto loans with 700 employees under his direction. While there he was intimately involved in Citi's TARP and stress test activities. He also served as Chief Credit Officer at Washington Mutual (WaMu) and as Managing Director and Chief Risk Officer at Countrywide Bank. Previous to these assignments, Rossi held senior risk management positions at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. He started his career during the thrift crisis at the U.S. Treasury's Office of Domestic Finance and later at the Office of Thrift Supervision working on key policy issues affecting depositories. Rossi was also an adjunct professor in the Finance Department at the Robert H. Smith School of Business for eight years and has numerous academic and nonacademic articles on banking industry topics. Rossi is frequently quoted on financial policy issues in major newspapers and has appeared on such programs as C-SPAN's Washington Journal and CNN's Situation Room. His book for risk practitioners and graduate students, A Risk Professional's Survival Guide, was published in 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. His research interests are in financial and nonfinancial risk management, risk governance and analytics and climate risk.
The inaugural episode, Breaking Into Underserved Markets, features Pam Perry, Vice President of Single-Family Equitable Housing at Freddie Mac, and Phil Treadwell, host of the Mortgage Marketing Expert podcast. Watch as they discuss:Phil's proven three-step marketing formula to break into a new marketBest practices to ensure effective engagement on a cultural levelResources that loan officers can use to help borrowers that may require financial assistance when applying for a loan
USPAP. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHA. Dodd-Frank. FIRREA. There are so many rules, regulations, guidelines, and laws appraisers have to follow, it can make your head ache. Listen in to Bryan's conversation with Jeff Morley, chair of Utah's Appraisal Licensing and Certification Board, about how to navigate all those rules and avoid the kinds of common appraisal mistakes that can lead to complaints against appraisers. Tune into our YouTube channel on November 30 for a full hourlong webinar with Jeff Morley and Bryan Reynolds, as they dive deeper into regulations, common errors, and protecting yourself from complaints.
Thanks to today's sponsor, Richey May. Richey May is a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, technology and other services to the mortgage industry for almost four decades. Among many awards, Richey May has been named a Top 100 Firm twice and is known in the market for their education and contributions to the mortgage industry. They don't just hire from the mortgage industry; they have the experts who build it. To experience how Richey May can help you transform your mortgage business, visit richeymay.com.
Failed deals. Capital calls. Lost investor money. A dreadful and sobering conversation ensues for many some commercial real estate sectors. Residential (1-4 unit) and commercial (5+ unit) real estate fortunes are decoupling. Multifamily commercial loans are at the mercy of interest rate resets. Residential is stable due to low supply and sustained demand. Neal Bawa from MultifamilyU and I outline the multifamily problem. Values have plummeted 25%. The magnitude of the multifamily problem is about 1/80th of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There are two reasons for the office apocalypse—both declining income and increasing expenses. Only 3% of office buildings in downtown cores have a floor plan that can be converted to residential. Dreadful. There will be possible discounts in the hotel industry due to a lack of funding and loans. Retail has surprising bright spots. We discuss the future of rents through 2026. Will multifamily problems create contagion into 1-4 unit residential? We discuss. Timestamps: Multifamily industry changes and challenges [00:00:46] Discussion on the new difficulties faced in multifamily, such as failed deals, capital calls, and banking industry challenges. Opportunity arising in the multifamily market [00:01:12] Exploration of the current opportunity in the multifamily market due to a 25% reduction in prices from the peak, caused by distressed transactions and high interest costs. Anatomy of the problem with floating rate debt [00:05:57] Explanation of the issues faced by apartment building owners or syndicators when they have floating rate debt without rate caps, leading to potential deal blow-ups. The rate cap issue [00:08:29] Discussion on operators neglecting to buy a rate cap or buying a rate cap set too high, leading to negative cash flow. Magnitude of the multifamily reset problem [00:09:47] Comparison of the current multifamily reset problem to the global financial crisis, highlighting the challenges faced by operators. Challenges in refinancing properties [00:12:10] Explanation of the challenges faced by properties in refinancing due to decreased net operating income and increased mortgage costs, leading to potential loss of investor money. The availability of multifamily loans [00:16:50] Neil discusses the availability of commercial real estate loans, particularly in the multifamily space, and how it differs from other asset classes. Lending challenges in the commercial real estate space [00:18:03] Neil talks about the severe lending challenges faced by asset classes like office, retail, and self-storage, while expressing confidence in the stability of multifamily lending. Contagion and the impact on the 1 to 4 unit space [00:20:56] Neil discusses the limited level of contagion that could affect the 1 to 4 unit space due to problems in the multifamily market, highlighting the healthiness of the single-family market and institutional interest in it. The Troubled Office Sector [00:25:35] The speaker discusses how the office sector is facing a long-term demand crisis due to the decrease in office occupancy and the challenges of converting office buildings into residential units. The Ten-Year Problem in the Office Sector [00:27:06] The speaker explains that the office sector is about to face a ten-year problem, with defaults and declining values affecting the downtown core and other assets. Bright Spots in Retail and Hotels [00:29:21] The speaker highlights that retail occupancy is higher than multifamily occupancy, and despite the Amazon effect, retail is doing well. They also mention that hotels have seen strong recovery post-pandemic. Hotels and Multifamily Discounts [00:32:55] Discussion on the current cash flow opportunities in hotels and multifamily properties, potential discounts in the next 12 months. Retail Reinvention and Rents in a Recession [00:33:57] Exploration of how retail can sustain itself through experiential offerings, the resilience of rents in past recessions. Artificial Recession and Rent Growth [00:35:33] Analysis of the possibility of a recession and its impact on rents, the strength of the US economy, and the expected short duration of the recession. The recession and its frequency [00:40:56] Discussion on the frequency of recessions and how they are a normal part of the business cycle. Learning opportunities at MultifamilyU.com [00:41:31] Information on the webinars offered by multifamily ewcom, covering various topics including single-family and multifamily projects. Appreciation for Neil Bawa's insights [00:42:22] The host expresses gratitude for Neil Bawa's informative contributions and welcomes him back on the show. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/473 Neal Bawa: MultiFamilyU.com and Grocapitus.com For access to properties or free help with a GRE's Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Speaker 1: Today's guest is well known as the mad Scientist of multifamily. He's a data guru, self-described self-described process freak, and an outsourcing expert. He's a ten figure man with his billion dollar plus multifamily portfolio and his 900 plus investors. He's also the CEO at a multifamily education company because he's a really good teacher. It's been about a year and a half since you were first here. Welcome back to Neal Bawa. Speaker 1 (00:00:40) - Well, thanks for having me back on. It's it's a delight to be back. Had a fantastic conversation with you last time. So I'm looking forward to this one. We did. Speaker 2 (00:00:46) - The last one was so fun and spirited. But my gosh, since then, Neal, about a year and a half ago, so much has changed in the multifamily industry. We know that a lot of new difficulties have come into multifamily, like failed deals and capital calls and the need to raise bridge debt and banking industry challenges. Speaker 2 (00:01:06) - So where would you like to start to help give us some perspective on all that? Speaker 1 (00:01:12) - Well, think opportunity is finally here. You know, when when we talked a year and a half ago, I was I said things like, well, prices are too high. I said things like, I don't know where the margins are. I don't know how people make deals work. I don't know how they make them pencil out. Right. Um, in some ways, I'm still saying some of those things, but it's certainly not because of pricing anymore. So, you know, the single family market is a perfect sort of benchmark for the world that live in multifamily. As far as I know, in the last 12 months, single family prices have either been flat or up 1% or down 1%, depending upon which analyst you pick. But it's certainly been an extremely, extraordinarily stable market in terms of prices, where it's it's you know, the volume, of course, has cratered. It's down a ridiculous percentage. Speaker 1 (00:02:00) - Whereas multifamily was an industry that has hurt more because of the portion of multifamily that was purchased or traded in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 time frame. Almost all of those trades happened using bridge loans which were floating, whereas almost all single family transactions were 30 year fixed loans. Right. So so two completely different things have happened. Normally the single family and multifamily market tend to be in lockstep. And that's certainly been the case for ten years. But over the last 18 months, single family and multifamily have separated from each other. And the big reason for that is almost all of the distressed transactions that you're talking about, that you're alluding to all of those cash calls. They are related to bridge loans, which had floating debt. And that floating debt has gone from, you know, 6% to ten, eight, you know, 11%, even for for some of these, these operators making it extremely difficult to make numbers work, making it very difficult to pencil. But on the good side, we've now seen compared to the peak, which was probably about 20, 21 months ago, we've seen a 25% reduction in prices, which is huge because we mean multifamily usually as an asset class, doesn't go down 25% simply because it its value is based on rents, you know, and rents rarely go down. Speaker 1 (00:03:22) - They hardly went down for 6 or 7 months in 2008, so we didn't see much of a decline there in 2008, simply because, you know, the, the, the income was strong, but this time, the much, much higher cost of interest means that our overall post mortgage income is down. And that's why prices are down 25%. So both opportunity and distress in the multifamily space. Speaker 2 (00:03:46) - That's such a staggering number. So let's frame that. Multifamily prices down 25% since their peak or year over year. And then just to be clear, we're talking about five plus unit residential apartment buildings with that figure. Speaker 1 (00:04:01) - Yes, I'm glad you asked the question that way because I do need to qualify a few things. So so first thing is down from peak and depending upon different markets, the peak was either the last quarter of 2021 or the first quarter of 2022. And in a couple of markets, even the second quarter of 2022. So it's I'm not saying year over year, it's basically they're down 25% in the last 18 or 20 months. Speaker 1 (00:04:25) - Um, so the second piece is that the down 25% is predominantly, let's call it hotter markets in the United States. So if we're talking about a steady Midwest market like Kansas City or Indianapolis, then you're probably seeing a decline of half that amount. So maybe 12.5, 13, 14%, where if you're talking about a very fast growing market, you know, all the Texan markets, the Floridian markets, then you might be seeing declines of that 25% level, since a lot of the transactions that did happen in the last two years were in the faster growing markets, that 25% number is still reasonable. And some people listening to this show might say, no, I don't think 25% is right. It's more like 20, it's more like 18. So I'll. Be at that by saying it's a pretty wide range. We're seeing as little as 18% in some of these fast growing markets, you know, hot markets. And we're also seeing markets like Phoenix, where we're seeing 27, 28% declines in price. Speaker 1 (00:05:23) - Also, the the range is dependent on the number of units. We are seeing smaller declines if you've got less than 100 units. Right. So smaller properties, we're seeing a smaller decline maybe 15%. And then when we are seeing properties that are 300 units or more, just the whoppers, we're seeing 30% declines in those assets. So so a lot of it is really dependent upon, you know, because the bigger the size, the harder it is to finance it these days, the less the banks want to take a risk on it. So the bigger the property, the harder, harder it's hit at this point of time. Speaker 2 (00:05:57) - The bigger the property, the less liquidity. So maybe, Neil, to help the listener get a full understanding, maybe you can take us through the anatomy of where a common problem is with what happens to an apartment building owner or syndicator when they got this floating rate debt and they didn't get a rate cap and rates spiked? What exactly happens that makes these deals blow up? Speaker 1 (00:06:24) - Right? First, want to, you know, set the size of the of the problem. Speaker 1 (00:06:28) - Right. So when you compare it to 2008, it's not comparable in 2008, the total size of distress or you know, potential distress was 8000 billion or $8 trillion. So it was it was a it was an absolutely staggering event. Luckily, not a lot of that distress actually happened. So that was good. But the the total size of distress was in that $8 trillion or $8000 billion range, the total size of distress in the multifamily market appears to be in the $100 billion range, so about 1/80 of the size of the distress in 2008. So keep that in mind. Also, as a percentage of the overall multifamily industry, there's about 100,000 multifamily properties in the United States that are on the bigger size. Let's call them more than 50 units. There's 20 million apartment units total. 100,000 are the bigger properties. Of those 100,000, the distressed portion of the portfolios is about, from what I can tell, about 3000 properties. Maybe it could be as much as 4000, but 3000 is a very common number. Speaker 1 (00:07:30) - So about 3% of the properties are distressed. And why are they distressed? Multifamily has been doing incredibly well. Rent growth has been phenomenal, especially in 2021 where it was 15%. Just so you know, they the 50 year average is about 2% rent growth. So 15% is you know, champagne time. So so we've certainly had positive trends. And we continue to see positive trends. You know there's there's less and less people can afford a mortgage. So there's basically a you know brand new renters being created every day because of mortgage rates being this high. But the, the the downside was that a portion of those 100,000 properties were purchased in late 2020, 2021 and then, you know, 2022, and they were purchased using floating debt. And the the so we're talking about those 3000 properties. Those 3000 properties either didn't have a rate cap. So when when you you're purchasing using, you know, bridge debt or floating debt, you want to buy a rate cap. So if rates do go up they hit that cap. Speaker 1 (00:08:29) - And then anything above that cap is something that the rate, you know, cap selling company reimburses to you. So that way you're not affected by but by going above that, well, some of these operators neglected to buy a rate cap, which was a really bad thing to do. But then there were others that other operators that bought a rate cap, but their rate cap was set too high. So, you know, they basically didn't think that rates would go up. So they did put a rate cap in. But instead of buying a rate cap at 6% or 7%, they may be bought a rate cap at 8 or 9. They were basically looking for the worst case scenario, and so they bought the cheapest rate cap that they could find. And now, you know, rates have gone up and they've already hit that rate cap. Maybe it's eight and a half or 9% and it had eight and a half or 9%. That mortgage is still too high for that property to cash flow. So now the property has negative cash flow. Speaker 1 (00:09:18) - So there's I personally know of a few dozen properties where the negative cash flow is between 20,000 and $200,000 a month. And that negative cash flow means that the syndicators, the the general partners are basically putting that money in themselves, or they're taking short term loans and they are now looking for a solution there and their solutions are limited. I can give you a list of those, but their solutions are limited because the property is is negative cash flow and nobody wants to touch a property that's negative cash flow. Speaker 2 (00:09:47) - Did we say that he's a data driven guy or what? That was some great perspective that the magnitude here of the multifamily reset problem has been about 1/80 of what the problem was in real estate during the global financial crisis. That was a great way to put things in perspective. Yeah, Neal, you know, it's such an interesting mindset that an operator would have the awareness to buy a rate cap with their floating rate debt, but yet not have the cap be low enough in order to keep them out of trouble. Speaker 2 (00:10:20) - That's really unusual to me. Do you have any idea what percent of operators have bought a rate cap with their floating rate debt? Speaker 1 (00:10:30) - I think a majority of them have. So I'd say more than 50% of the properties that were purchased during this time did have caps, but a lot of the caps were set high. So that that was a very common thing, where the caps were set to 8% or higher, as opposed to them being set at, you know, 6 or 6.5%. So it's more of a high cap issue rather than a no cap issue. And I think the bigger the secondary challenges, let's say let's say they had a good rate cap, right? So I bought it. Let's say you bought a property in the, um, let's call it the final quarter of 2020. And you bought a two year rate cap. And the rate cap was good. It was 6.5%. Yeah. Good for you. Right. But that rate cap was a two year rate cap. So now it expired basically last year. Speaker 1 (00:11:14) - And so since last year you're now up at 10 or 11%. And, you know, a year's gone by. Your property is bleeding. Maybe it was doing well, but now that it's been bleeding for a year and you've been paying all of that bleed out of your operating expenses, now you're in trouble. And maybe you bought it. Three rate cap. Well, if you bought the property in the final quarter of 2020, then in about a month or two months from now, we're in the final quarter of 2023. Well, that rate cap is going to be gone. And then maybe in the next three, 4 or 5, six, seven months, all of your operating budget, all of your operating, you know, fund is going to be, you know, gone because you have this much higher mortgage. So what's happening is that this is one of those situations where there isn't a trigger on any one particular day, and a huge number of properties come to market. There were a lot of properties purchased in the final quarter of 2020, all four quarters of 2021 and the first three quarters of 2022. Speaker 1 (00:12:10) - Right. So you're looking at a total of eight quarters. So each quarter, a certain percentage of those properties get to the point where either their rate cap is gone. Right. So it's finished because you bought a one year or two year rate cap, or they're they're at the point where even without the rate cap, their loan is expiring. So a lot of these bridge loans were two year loans and three year loans. And so the vast majority of the challenges that the multifamily industry is going to face are going to be in 2024, because that's when a vast majority of either rate caps or mortgages expire. And because because the net operating income of these properties has gone down and the and the mortgage cost has gone up, most of these properties cannot be refinanced. So I'd say out of the 3000 properties, you could probably refinance using some mechanism, a thousand of them, maybe a third of them. And that could be, you know, do a cash call, get, you know, money from your investors. Speaker 1 (00:13:07) - Or you could do what is known as a pref lending, where you basically take money from an outside party and that outside that extra money helps you refinance into into perm debt. So those are your options. And the third option, which is likely to be most common, is that you go out and sell your property. But from what I'm seeing, the vast majority of these properties that don't get refinanced. So out of 3000, the 2000 that don't get refinanced are likely to come to market, and the vast majority of them will end up losing all of their investor money or a majority of their investor money. And so you, you know, if it's a $100 billion problem, that's, you know, we're talking about 30 to $40 billion of investor money, and a majority of that 30 to $40 billion could be lost. Speaker 2 (00:13:48) - Yeah, that is troubling and really concerning as far as those LPs, those limited partners, those investors in someone else's syndication, hopefully that syndicator, that operator is communicating with their investors. Speaker 2 (00:14:03) - But for investors, is there anything they can do to identify cracks in the arm or where they might be losing their deal, where they might be losing their money, where they might be throwing good money after bad if a capital call is requested? Speaker 1 (00:14:18) - I think it's a very difficult thing to do for a limited partner because you have, you know, you have more, you have much more exposure to the deal than you would when you invest in the stock market, where you know, there's almost no exposure unless it's a public company. Um, but and these are all private syndications. But I think that a lot of investors simply don't know how to read the, the budgets versus actuals. They don't necessarily know how to read the Performa. So it's it's challenging. So if you're somebody that is. Comfortable doing that. I suggest you dive in and basically ask a lot of the questions of the syndicators. I have one such property, so, you know, I was lucky in that during that time a lot of my colleagues had I have people who I know colleagues that bought 10 to 12 properties during that time frame. Speaker 1 (00:15:02) - It was very normal. I bought one and a half. So one of those properties was my own property, exited one of my partners. So I call it a half a property because it was already mine. Um, and then I bought purchased one other property in a military metro. So I was able to get it for a lower price because it was a military metro. And usually the prices are lower for, for for military towns and, and that property, you know, I'm having the same challenges that I've described. So, you know, the the rate cap issues and the fact that basically prices have gone down by 25%. And I'm dealing with it by constantly communicating with my investors, giving them, you know, options. You know, here's, you know, how when, when we were when we were all selling these these shares to investors, we gave them a, um, a sensitivity analysis showing them, you know, worst case scenario, best case scenario, you know, in a middle case scenario. Speaker 1 (00:15:55) - And so now we're basically doing a sensitivity analysis based on what we are seeing in the marketplace today. And and giving them feedback on what our options are and think a lot of it comes down from the the general partners communicating with the limited partners. And if the your general partner is not very communicative, is not giving you information, ask for one on one meetings, ask for you know, more information in their webinar or in their updates. I think this is a time for limited partners to be vocal. Speaker 2 (00:16:25) - You've learned about the problem in the larger apartment space. You've learned about how operators and apartment syndicators are dealing with the problem. And then, Neil, where do you think that we're going next and think maybe we should ask and look at it through the lens of where do you think we're going next with the availability of multifamily loans, could this help the source of capital dry up? Speaker 1 (00:16:50) - And so I think the answer is we are going to a very dark place with availability of commercial real, you know, loans. Speaker 1 (00:16:57) - Multifamily is in a privileged asset class. So, you know, the the term commercial real estate is sometimes meant to include multifamily, sometimes not. So I'll assume that multifamily is part of commercial real estate, but there are many other asset classes. So there's office which is the next biggest asset class. There's retail hotels, there's self-storage, you know, and and a few others like mixed use. And of those commercial real estate asset class, there's only one that's privileged and that's multifamily because there are not one, not two, but three lenders who are government or quasi government organizations whose only job it is to keep lending in the multifamily space liquid, and also the single family space liquid. And they are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and hard. Right. So Housing and Development Authority. So these three lenders right now are extremely, extremely active. And what has happened is that in in good times, call it 20 early 2022. You had life companies. You had all these private, you know, bridge capital, you had all kinds of capital that was lending to the multifamily space. Speaker 1 (00:18:03) - Now some of that capital has backed off. There's still a huge percentage, I'd say probably 40, 50% of all loans that are being done today are these kinds of private, you know, groups. But think the government or quasi government groups are much more active today and their lending. So I don't think multifamily lending dries up at all. I don't think that that's the case. I think it dries up for the non privileged asset classes, hotel, retail, self-storage, office. These are the classes that are likely to see, you know, near lending dry up especially because on a fundamentals basis there's absolutely nothing wrong with multifamily. In fact as I mentioned I think we're a lot better off than 2019 to 2023 given that home prices have gone up 40%, incomes are only gone up 15%. So there's a very large number of Americans that simply cannot qualify for a single family home anymore. And so those people have to go to apartments. So the the fundamentals are really good for apartments. That is not true of office. Speaker 1 (00:19:02) - So office is an asset class that is experiencing the worst fundamentals it has seen in its entire history. And so I do think that there's going to be very severe lending challenges in the commercial real estate space. But I haven't really seen that multifamily, and I don't anticipate seeing it in the future as well. Speaker 2 (00:19:20) - Well, I don't know if any of that could have as much fun as last time. There were rather gloomy subjects to discuss here with Neal and come back. Can this problem in the multifamily space create contagion for the 1 to 4 unit space? And like with what Neil touched on, what about other commercial sectors like office and retail? How troubled are they when we come back? This is get recession. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Speaker 2 (00:20:14) - Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with the mad scientist of multifamily, a big brained visionary. He's also an excellent teacher. I'm sure you can tell as you're listening to him here. And if you're listening in the audio only Bawa is spelled b a w a new. Here on this show, we talk an awful lot about investing in the 1 to 4 unit space and the advantage of the 30 year fixed that long term fixed interest rate debt. Do you see any areas for contagion with problems in the multifamily five plus unit space bleeding over into the 1 to 4 unit space? Speaker 1 (00:20:56) - Yes, but to a limited level, I think that the the 1 to 4 unit space is the healthiest that I've seen in a very long time. Speaker 1 (00:21:05) - And there's reasons for that. One of the biggest reasons is multifamily, which is the most well sought after asset class for institutional investors who don't typically don't usually like the 1 to 4 unit space. There's a few companies in that space, let's call them half a dozen, but there's several thousand companies that invest in the multifamily space. Some of them are right now looking at single family as a, you know, as a, you know, safe haven to park some of their money. Right? So there's, you know, more institutional level interest in the single family space because of its access to those, you know, those those 30 year fixed loans. So there's and the fact that single family prices basically haven't declined. So I think that there's there's a lot of interest in the single family space. Um, keep in mind that millennials are reaching their peak years of household formation. So they started in 2019. So until 2025. So from 19 to 2025, those are the peak years of household formation for millennials. Speaker 1 (00:22:01) - And that's also putting a cushion under the single family space there. Contagion is some form of contagion is inevitable. I think that the office market is going to see spectacular levels of contagion, similar to 2008. I think that the other associated markets, like hotel and retail, are going to see some level of contagion, though I certainly don't expect it to be as bad as office. And then multifamily is going to see some contagion, as we mentioned, because of these 2 or 3000 properties that have to be basically sold into the marketplace and prices are down, which always creates contagion. Why? Because think about it. You're a mid-level bank. So a mid-level bank in the US is $250 billion or less in assets. Well, a lot of these assets are these banks are the ones that loaned out money to multifamily and retail and hotel and in office, and now are being forced by the Federal Reserve through a process known as mark to market. They're being forced to write down the value of these assets because these assets, you know, there's still you know, there's still active loans, but maybe they they loan $20 million. Speaker 1 (00:23:00) - And now basically they're $20 million is only worth 18 or 16 or 15. And so now the fed is saying, hey, you know, you got to mark these assets down in value. And as they mark them down to value, that can lead to the banks becoming or mid-sized banks becoming less stable. I don't think this affects any of the large banks in the US, but the midsize ones are affected. And some of those mid-sized banks do lend to the single family space, but not a lot. I find that the single family space, when I look at their source of lending, not a lot of those mid-sized banks are involved. There's a little bit they do some brokerage work, but then they're selling those loans back to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and a bunch of other, you know, governmental type organizations. So I don't see a sense of contagion in the single family space. I do see potentials of some price declines because until about two months ago, mortgages were predominantly in the sixes. They, you know, they spiked up once to the sevens and then they pulled back into the sixes. Speaker 1 (00:23:56) - Now they've gone into the sevens and they may stay in the sevens for a substantial amount of time. When that happens, that can affect the single family market as well, simply because, you know, you can get to the point where supply is higher than, than demand. So I wouldn't be surprised if there's a pullback in single family prices. Let's call it 5%. But I'm not predicting the kind of challenges where the office market think we could see 40% declines in prices from peak, whereas single family you might see 5%. I think that's still an incredible outcome for the single family market compared, you know, just looking at the outrageous increases in prices since Covid don't I don't think that's a even a pullback. I would just say that's a balancing out. Speaker 2 (00:24:44) - Who know the residential housing market. Really, it's something that's non-discretionary on a human need basis. Everyone needs to live somewhere and they will either own rent or be homeless. And you talked about some of those affordability challenges before. The lower the homeownership rate gets, the more renters you have. Speaker 2 (00:25:05) - So long term, we will have some demand baseline for both multifamily and properties in the 1 to 4 unit space, of course, but the same thing cannot be said about some of these other commercial sectors, especially the troubled office sector space, where you have more and more abandoned buildings downtown. And a lot of these office buildings cannot be easily converted from offices to residential units. So why don't you talk to us about some of those other troubled commercial sectors, starting with office. Speaker 1 (00:25:35) - Office is in a apocalypse. I think that this is far, far worse than 2008 and far, far worse than than 2001, because 2008 and 2001, they were liquidity crisis. They were short term, you know, demand crisis. This is a long term demand crisis because, you know, I read very important documents from companies that are in the key swiping business. You know, when you enter an office in a downtown core, you're swiping your card. And so those companies actually have phenomenal day by day data of how many people are actually going into offices today. Speaker 1 (00:26:11) - It's been more than a year since companies started calling back, you know, people to the office and think that by now every company, whether you know, they're they're forcing five days back to the office or four days or three days or two days, everyone's sort of, you know, put their line in the sand. And we're at the point where, you know, this, this is what offices look like going forward. And if I'm right and this is what it looks like going forward, it is simply catastrophic for the office market in the United States, because we're still seeing key swipes at 50 to 60% of the people that used to swipe in before Covid. And that number is staggeringly, staggeringly low. And if this is what it settles at, you know, some companies are two days, some three, some four. I think we're in for a world of pain for the office market. You also, you know, there's a lot of people that in these podcasts basically will often say something like, no, the office stuff will get converted into residential. Speaker 1 (00:27:06) - And I have news for you, only 3% of office buildings in office in downtown course have the floor plate, the floor plate necessary for residential conversion. Why? Because residential conversion by law requires that every every single room have a window. So what is happening is most of the time you basically can only convert the buildings on the edge, the, the square footage on the edge of a building, but that's central core but then becomes worthless. And if you don't have a use for it, then you still have to buy that office building to convert and you have to buy it at a reasonable price. The math doesn't work. I mean, you'd you'd need to see office values down 80% for, for, you know, a somebody who's converting to multifamily to say, fine, I'll just leave the 60% in the middle empty and I'll just convert the size. So 80% declines in value are needed for that kind of conversion to happen. So we are about to see a ten year problem in the office sector. Speaker 1 (00:28:03) - And it's also dragging down all of the other assets in the downtown core. So we are seeing we just saw a $727 million default on two hotels in San Francisco. We saw a $558 million mall default. Also in San Francisco, we're seeing defaults across the board in New York, Boston, Seattle, San Diego, Miami, sort of heavy markets where this these challenges are happening. We're seeing a lot of these and it's happening in a very, very slow way. Keith. And the reason for that is the office market, their average lease is, you know, five years long. Some leases are ten years long, and a lot of these companies haven't gone out of business. So if the company is in the lease, they're continuing to pay even though the office is empty. But the moment that lease comes up for renewal, either the company doesn't renew it or they renew maybe half the space. Right. And so we we already know that this is an incredible debacle, but it doesn't seem like it at any given point of time because it's happening in a very slow motion way. Speaker 2 (00:29:02) - Well, that's such a good point about how there will be this slow drain, this slow leak when these office leases expire over time. What about other areas of the commercial space, any other particularly troubled areas or bright spots that you see going forward? Speaker 1 (00:29:21) - Ironically bright spots. And this is where I've been proven wrong in the past. You know, I've often maybe 4 or 5 years ago talked about the retail apocalypse, right, where Amazon would basically, you know, lead the retail market to become illiquid. Well, none of those things have happened because of two reasons. One is the retail apocalypse with people like me, you know, being on on 200 podcasts, talking about it, a lot of development of retail that was scheduled to happen simply didn't happen. So the very. Speaker 2 (00:29:48) - Late podcast, people lost confidence. No. They were invested in retail. Speaker 1 (00:29:52) - Exactly right. So so, you know, I fulfilled that prophecy. Think. But bottom line is that there's there's been very responsible levels of new construction in retail. Speaker 1 (00:30:02) - So, you know, they haven't built a lot. Very few models have been built in the United States in the last few years. And even some of the malls that have been repurposed, some of their square footage is being used up for, for multifamily. And so that was one. The second reason is that retail is being very careful with pricing. So, you know, over, over the last 5 or 6 years, the retail market has adjusted to new forms of pricing, where, you know, you go into a mall and you see a gym where before the pricing of that mall never really allowed for a gym to be in a mall. It just gyms, you know, they want, you know, a lower price per square foot. And so malls have adjusted, strip malls have adjusted. And so today we have a surprising event where retail occupancy in the United States is higher than multifamily. This is the first time ever that multifamily is about a little under 95%. Now it's 94% occupied. Speaker 1 (00:30:52) - Retail is 96 or 97% occupied, which never happens, right? Normal. Normally retail is right around 90%, 88%, something like that. But the high level of occupancy shows that that retail is doing well. Now, having said that. So so on the occupancy side, they're doing really well. There's there's really no pullback in terms of demand. But on the other side, because of the fact that interest rates are so high, retail cap rates are very high, which means prices are low. So prices are very reasonable there for retail. And so I think that real opportunity that I'm seeing I wouldn't invest in office at this point, Keith, because you don't know the end of this process. You don't know how long it takes. I think it takes a decade. So I might get 50% off in office and I don't want it. I just don't want to touch that asset class. It's tainted. Now, if I get 40% off in retail, I think I'm interested because fundamentally I don't see a demand issue if this is the highest occupancy that retail has seen ever. Speaker 1 (00:31:53) - And at the same time, I'm getting a 40 or 50% discount simply because of lack of lending. Well, that is to me a classic opportunity to look at because once again, fundamentally, nothing is wrong with demand. And I realize that the Amazon effect is extremely real. But what I'm seeing is that that people want that experience of shopping. And so even amongst the young people, sure, each year Amazon, you know, goes up a little bit. But now Amazon's growth is no longer a hockey puck. Amazon's growth is sort of like this. You know they're growing by 10%, 15% a year, which is still great for Amazon. But I think when you when you project that across a 300 million person market that the US is retail no longer has to fear for an apocalypse. So this is actually a pretty good time to take advantage of the 40% discounts that I think will happen in 2024 for retail. Same thing. Everything I just said also applies to hotels. Hotels came out of the pandemic very strong, with huge increases in ADR or average daily rates and huge, huge increases in occupancy. Speaker 1 (00:32:55) - So hotels right now are a very robust cash flowing business. If you've got good hotels and good locations, you're making a lot of money. They're cash flowing like crazy because their orders have gone up and their occupancy has gone up. So they've taken two positive hits. But once again, I expect there to be discounts simply because of a lack of funding, a lack of loans. And you can you might we might easily see 30%, maybe not 40, but 30% discounts in hotels in the next 12 months. So think both of those are really good opportunities, along with multifamily discounts at 25%. So this is an opportunity. This is a case of distress creating unusual levels of opportunity. I don't think we're quite there yet, Keith. We're beginning to see some distress in multifamily. We're certainly seeing distress in office. We haven't heard anything about the distress in retail or hotels yet. That's because a lot of their their loans don't don't trigger until 2024. Right. So that's we'll see what happens next year when these loans start to trigger and you can't really refinance them. Speaker 2 (00:33:57) - I completely believe that inflation has thoroughly soaked in to hotels. You talk about their ADR, their average daily rate. I've recently stayed at hotels in Denver, Omaha, Chicago, Toledo and Boston, so I've gotten a pretty good sample size and sure feel the hit there. And interestingly, the last time I shopped at a mall, it was the biggest mall in this city, and I noticed a bowling alley that I had not noticed there before. And I went bowling and noticed an ice skating rink was there. So I just wonder how much retail can reinvent itself if it tilts enough into the experiential part, rather than just buying items off a shelf at a store, maybe that can help sustain that retail sector, to your point. Well, Neil, maybe we should wrap up really on what supports an awful lot of values in multifamily, and that is rents and the direction of rents, especially if we have almost hate to say this. R-word, a different R-word, a recession, because it seems like this thing has been around the corner forever. Speaker 2 (00:35:03) - I know historically that rents are quite resilient in a recession, something that you touched on earlier back even during the 2008 global financial crisis, when I was a landlord, I owned fourplex buildings. Then I noticed that I had a pretty good steady stream of renters. My rents didn't really go up much, but they were really resilient. They didn't go down, and that's because people couldn't get a loan. So that was an affordability problem. Then we have another affordability problem now. But if we do tilt into recession, what do you think that is going to do to rents? Speaker 1 (00:35:33) - I think we are going to see a decline in rents if a recession happens. Now, that's a question. By the way, six months ago, if you told me, you know, a recession wasn't going to happen, I'd say, no, that's not possible. We are going to go into a recession. However, I must admit that the US economy has truly, truly, truly outperformed beyond anyone else, beyond anyone's imagination. Speaker 1 (00:35:54) - So today, the chances of a recession are certainly not 100%. Might be 50%. But let's assume that it happens and a recession happens. I think what is very, very likely is that this recession will be very short. So once again, if you're not paying attention to to to what's happening in the marketplace, this is a time that, you know, I was born in India and this is my adopted country. I feel very proud of the US economy today. If I compare the US economy to the Canadian, the eurozone, the Germans, the Japanese, we are outperforming every one of those economies. We're at the point where we're outperforming China, which almost never happens, by the way. And so we have an extraordinarily resilient and strong economy at this point. So if it falls into a recession just because the fed keeps hitting it over the head with this interest rate hammer, I think that recession will be fairly short, because as soon as the economy does go into a recession, the fed usually figures that out within a few months. Speaker 1 (00:36:47) - Then they can stop hitting us with a hammer. I'm not saying that they'll just cut interest rates back to zero, but they certainly will provide some cushion. Maybe they cut rates by one one time, two times, just to make the market breathe a little bit easier. Because this is an artificial recession, there is no shortage of demand in the US economy. There's an incredible number of open jobs. There were as many as 11 million jobs now. Now there's about 9 million open. So there's there's a and wage growth has been so strong. Right. Because we have so many people retiring that at this point, for the first time since the early 60s, I believe, or late 60s, we actually have pricing power. So anyone who wants to be employed can ask for more money and get it. And so wage growth has been about four, 4.5%, which is really good for rents, by the way. It's phenomenal news because we needed wage growth for future rent growth. So we have a artificial recession if it does happen. Speaker 1 (00:37:38) - And that artificial recession is being caused by the fed because they want that wage growth to come closer to 2% from the 4% that it's at, because everything else has come down. Right. So commodities have come down with the exception of oil, and so has, you know, so have the supply chain issues are gone, rents are down. So in the US the last 12 months, rents were flat and in some markets they might be down 1% or 2%. Austin I think was the only market that was down a lot. But most other markets were down very, very small amounts. So rents have been flat, which is, I think, really credible because if you look at rents over the last two years, they're up 16%. So in 2022 they were up 16%. In 2023 they were up basically zero. So if you average that out now you're looking at 8% rent growth, which is phenomenal compared to the long term average of 2.5%. So we've been outperforming on rent and we needed to take a breather in the last 12 months have been that breather. Speaker 1 (00:38:32) - Now, if the recession happens, I do expect rents to go down, but not normally they don't. So in a in a in a six month, three month or six month average recession, you know, the average US recession is two quarters. So six months normally you don't get rent drops. You might get, you know, the rents plateau out. Or maybe their rent growth drops from 3% to 1%. That's that's much more common this time. We might see rent growth in a short recession drop by maybe 1% or 2%. And the biggest reason for that is supply. The largest supply of apartments in the history of the country is delivering, starting basically the beginning of 2023 until the end of 2024. So these two years, 2023 and 2024 are massive apartment supply years. And obviously, as you supply 500,000 apartments into an economy that overall is not outperforming, is is doing okay, but and it starts to go into a recession, then you're going to see some concessions. And that concession drives down the price of multifamily, which then drives down the price of single family rentals. Speaker 1 (00:39:36) - So we could see a decline in rents. I'd say probably 1% to 2% is is possible, but that decline is likely to be short. So I think let's assume that the recession starts in the final quarter of 2023, which might not happen. I think it's more of a Q1 and Q2 of next year. If the recession does happen, those are the two most likely quarters. As soon as the economy rebounds and becomes positive, we should see very strong and stable rent growth. Well, I would say stable rent growth for the rest of 2024 by 2025, a lot of that incoming supply is done. So now supply supply and demand are in balance. So in 2025 I expect strong rent growth as much as 4 or 5%. And in 2026 I expect very, very strong rent growth. We might we might see 6% rent growth in 2026. So 2024 is that year where rent growth is a little bit shaky because of this. Word, the recession word. And, you know, whether it happens or not is we don't know. Speaker 1 (00:40:37) - And when it happens, we don't know how long it lasts. But I think because it's an artificially induced recession, it's likely to be the vanilla US six month recession, which basically drives wages closer to that 2% target for the fed, and gives the fed the room to start easing up on interest rates. Speaker 2 (00:40:56) - Recessions are not good. Perhaps the one positive about a recession is that then we can all stop talking about and speculating upon when does eventually happen, because on average, it does happen every five years. It's just a normal part of the business cycle. Well, Neal, this has been very informative around the multifamily world and beyond, including projections for the future. You've always got such great insight in stats on the pulse of the market. If someone wants to learn more about you and your resources, what's the best way for them to do that? Speaker 1 (00:41:31) - Come join us at multifamily. That's multifamily, followed by the letter EW.com we get about 20,000 registrations in our webinars. We do about a dozen webinars each year. Speaker 1 (00:41:41) - We do them on single family multifamily. We do them on other asset classes like office. We just did one on on on the office apocalypse and people like that because there's no education fee, there's no subscription, there's no upsell. People come join us. They learn a lot. And occasionally during one of these webinars, if you have a multifamily project that we are doing, we mention it for about 30s. And if that sounds like it's interesting, you can, you know, jump in and you know and participate. But otherwise, you know, there's a lot of tens of thousands of people that have never participated with us in any of our projects that come and join us at this ecosystem of learning called multifamily EW.com. Speaker 2 (00:42:22) - Neal Bawa, Gro Capital and multifamily EW.com. It's been informative, just like it was the last time you were here. It's been great having you back on the show. Speaker 1 (00:42:32) - Thanks for having me on, Keith.
Episode Description:Listen in this week to the Hoporenkv Native American Podcast as our hosts learn about a new home financing program that was developed by Freddie Mac specifically for Native Americans: HeritageOne. Catherine Houlihan, Manager of Single-Family Specialized Loan Products at Freddie Mac, connects with Ouista Atkins and Brooke Warrington, the Training and Development Coordinator and Specialist respectively, of the Seminole Tribe of Florida's Native Learning Center to answer questions about this new, exciting product. Catherine tells of the journey Freddie Mac embarked upon while developing this home financing program designed to meet the borrowing needs of members of federally recognized Native American tribes living in Tribal Areas along with the nitty gritty regarding eligibility, servicing, benefits, and features. Be sure to listen in and spread the word to your neighbors in Indian Country.Note for our listeners: HUD's Section 184 program cannot be used in conjunction with HeritageOne, but HeritageOne can be combined with: CHOICERenovation®CHOICEReno eXPress®GreenCHOICE Mortgages®manufactured home mortgagesCHOICEHome®Affordable Seconds®Links to Include with Episode:https://sf.freddiemac.com/working-with-us/origination-underwriting/mortgage-products/heritageonesm-mortgagehttps://sf.freddiemac.com/working-with-us/affordable-lending/duty-to-serve/rural-housing/native-american-homeownership-preparednesshttps://sf.freddiemac.com/faqs/heritageone-faqhttps://myhome.freddiemac.com/blog/homebuying/exploring-mortgage-options-for-native-homebuyershttps://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/freddie-mac-expands-financing-affordable-housing-native-american
As the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated, investors are selling off bonds in anticipation of new issues with higher yields, triggering a historic rout in the world's biggest bond markets.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Macro Strategy. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today, I'll discuss the ongoing U.S. Treasury bond market route. It's Tuesday, October 24th, at 10 a.m. in New York. The world's biggest bond markets are in the midst of a historic route, and an increasing number of experts are referring to this as the deepest bond bear market of all time. Simply put, it works like this. When the central bank policy rate increases, investors' expectations for yields on bonds go up. This prompts investors to sell the bonds they currently own in order to buy newly issued ones that promise higher yields. So in this higher for longer interest rate environment, investors have been selling bonds, resulting in serious declines in bond prices and simultaneous surges in bond yields. In the U.S. Treasury market, which is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, the yield on the 30 year U.S. government bond recently hit 5% for the first time since 2007. German and Japanese bond yields are also reaching significantly elevated levels. Why does the turmoil in the bond market matter so much for consumers? For one thing, the yields on local government bonds impacts how banks priced mortgages. In the U.S. Specifically, mortgage rates tend to track the yield on ten year treasuries. Government backed mortgage provider Freddie Mac recently announced that the average interest rate on the 30 year fixed rate mortgage hit 7.3% in the week ending September 28th. That's the highest level since 2000. The ripple effects from the bond market route stretch further than mortgages. For instance, higher U.S. yields also means an even stronger U.S. dollar, which puts downward pressure on other currencies. The equity markets also can't escape the impact of higher bond yields. Those higher yields compete for money that might otherwise get invested in the stock market. As yields surged in September, the S&P 500 fell about 4.5%, despite relatively positive economic data. Against this backdrop, consensus explanations for the bond market sell off have been focusing on technical drivers, like U.S. Treasury market supply and investor positioning adjustments, as well as fundamental drivers, like fiscal sustainability concerns, Bank of Japan policy changes and stronger than expected growth. What surprises us is that the Fed rarely enters the discussion, specifically its reactions to data and its subsequent forward guidance. But we do believe the Fed's involvement is one of the major drivers behind the current bond market rout. Without the Fed's more hawkish reaction to recent growth and inflation data, other technical and fundamental drivers would not have contributed as much to higher Treasury yields, in our view. As things stand, markets will need to continue to come to grips with interest rates staying high. The U.S. economy remains resilient, despite still elevated inflation. Our U.S. economist now thinks the Fed's December Federal Open Market Committee meeting is a live meeting. The September U.S. Consumer Price Index and payrolls data met our economists' bar for a potential additional hike later this year. And so these most recent data releases make the next round of monthly data even more important, as policymakers deliberate what to do in December. And these decisions by the Fed will continue to have a significant impact on the bond market. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people find the show.
Are you ready to deconstruct the enigma of rapidly escalating mortgage rates and their impact on the US housing market? We've rolled out the red carpet for our esteemed guest, Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, who brings a wealth of insight to elucidate this multifaceted issue. We're going to scrutinize the explosive pace of this rate surge, an event unparalleled in modern US history. Alongside, we will be probing into its ramifications on home sales, and the potential strain it might put on consumers who are already grappling with existing debts.The discussion expands to include a comparative study between the current lock-in effect of mortgage rates and the scenario in the 1980s. We'll illuminate the influence of Airbnb-like properties and talk about the effects of the reduced homebuilding activity post 2008. Delving into demographic dynamics, we explore how the millennial population is shaping the housing market and ponder on the potential challenges that could stem from an upswing in bank lending.We end by casting a lens on the nationwide housing shortage, scrutinizing its roots in supply-demand dynamics and vacancy rates. With the help of Census data and demographic factors such as age, education, and income, we'll make an educated guess about the long-term housing demand. We'll tackle the influence of second homes, naturally vacant housing, short-term rentals, and investors on the housing market, and discuss how the shift towards remote work and the inversion of the yield curve might impact the future housing scenario. So, gear up for an enlightening discussion that's backed with data and brimming with insights about the US housing market and the mortgage industry.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:
On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Sonu Mittal, senior vice president, head of single family acquisitions at Freddie Mac, about the new DPA One initiative and how Freddie is working with industry to improve repurchase rates.Related to this episode:Connect with Sonu on LinkedInFreddie Mac rolls out down payment assistance toolHousingWire's YouTube ChannelEnjoy the episode!The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team.
eMortgages, and eClosings have been talked about for decades now, but realistically, where are we at with the shift to ‘e' today and where are we headed? During this discussion, industry experts explore the past, present and future evolution of eMortgages and eClosings, along with the readiness of the current market, how to mitigate adoption hurdles and tips to help lenders integrate into the eMortgage landscape. Visit these Freddie Mac resources to start your digital journey. Explore Electronic Documents and the eMortgage Roadmap: https://sf.freddiemac.com/working-with-us/electronic-loan-documents/overview eMortgage Participants: https://sf.freddiemac.com/working-with-us/electronic-loan-documents/emortgage-ready-participants eMortgage Training Resources: https://sf.freddiemac.com/working-with-us/electronic-loan-documents/training Connect with Freddie Mac LinkedIn: @Freddie Mac Single-Family Instagram: @FreddieMaccorp
Welcome back to the Real Estate Agent Development (READ) Podcast! In this enlightening episode, we're joined by Nick Crichton, an experienced loan officer from Prosperity Home Mortgage. Diving deep into the world of home loans, Nick shares invaluable insights, especially curated for first-time home buyers as well as newer real estate agents.
In this installment of the BetterWealth podcast, Caleb Guilliams speaks with financial expert, Garrett Gunderson, about the latest mortgage rule being implemented by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac earlier this year which will punish people with good credit scores with high interest rates, to subsidize lower rates for individuals with bad credit. Basically, if you make good choices you get punished and if you make bad ones you get rewarded. Join us as we unravel the intricacies of this latest mortgage fee and the potential repercussions it has on individuals with strong credit scores. Tune in now to gain a deeper understanding of these critical financial developments and ensure you're equipped to make informed decisions about your financial future. If you find this discussion as enlightening as we do, remember to hit the "Follow" button, and don't forget to share this episode with friends and family who need to be in the know about safeguarding their financial well-being!
Today's Flashback Friday is from episode 768 published last December 21, 2016. Jason speaks with Bob Pozen about possible changes in the real estate market under a Trump administration. Changes in legislation and regulations may lift up small to medium sized banks and increase the amount of lending by the biggest banks. Bob Pozen is a Senior Lecturer at MIT's Sloan School of Management, a Senior Research Fellow at the Brookings Institute and former Associate General Counsel for the SEC. Bob has authored two books Extreme Productivity and Too Big to Save which is discussed during today's podcast. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 2:17 The historic change in the leadership of the U.S. Government. 4:03 Remember to register for the 2017 Meet the Masters Event slated for January. Bob Pozen Guest Interview 6:24 Legislation that may be changed through banking system while Dodd-Frank is left as is. 10:16 There has been too much regulation on small to medium sized banks. 11:59 The problems are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are they were never public nor private. 15:39 The FHA and VA insure 100% of the mortgages made by banks. 16:21 More money flowing into the real estate market will cause an upward pressure on prices. 19:12 Home buying increases when rates start to go up but then level out. 19:54 Pozen was chosen by President Bush to join a bipartisan commission to strengthen Social Security. 21:26 Security and Exchange Commission has constraints regarding employees working for corporations after their service. 23:48 Getting to the gist of Bob Pozen's book Too Big to Fix. 26:25 Peer-to-Peer lending is pretty much unregulated. 28:04 As the economy strengthens banks should lend more. Mentioned in This Episode: Bob Pozen Jason Hartman Jason Hartman Events Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com
Jon Suber is the Supplier Diversity Manager at Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored private bank providing mortgage capital to lenders to make homeownership possible for millions of families and individuals. Jon has a BSBA in Marketing from the Katz Graduate School of Business at the University of Pittsburgh and an MBA in Supply Chain Management from Howard University. Before working in his current role Jon worked for international corporations that include Proctor & Gamble and Unilever. He has extensive experience in supply planning, contract manufacturing, logistics, and project management. In today's episode, Jon joins us to discuss the Supplier Inclusion program with Freddie Mac, one of the biggest buyers of mortgages in the U.S. He discusses how the company works to promote opportunities to diverse suppliers in their pipeline system, how they outreach via national conferences and local events for their 30 Max Supplier diversity program, and how they spread the word on the types of opportunity available at Freddie Mac. Jon explains the Supplier Academy program launched by the company in 2016 and what it provides in terms of education on the company and also the opportunity for diverse suppliers to present their capabilities. He also shares his journey into Supplier Diversity, where he was first introduced to the practice while interning in his first summer of business school and seeded in him a passion for supplier diversity, he would fully realize 11 years later with Freddie Mac. “You have to overcome the unconscious bias of using a diverse supplier versus the Big Four. Because the Big Four is a brand name. You know them. You trust them. They've done work but the reality is -who do you think the diverse supplier is? It's not necessarily a small Mom & Pop operation.” – Jon Suber This week on Breaking Barriers: The 3 pillars of the Freddie Macs Supplier Inclusion program How Freddie Mac utilized diverse suppliers instead of the Big Four The areas of opportunity the company offers for diverse suppliers How Freddie Mac operates differently from a regular high street bank Why it's important for contract owners to have awareness of the skills and capabilities of diverse suppliers as showcased in Freddie Macs Capability Presentation day How you can reach out to Freddie Mac to begin building a Supplier Diverse relationship with them Resource Mentioned: Freddie Mac's Supplier Diversity Application Connect with Jon Suber: Freddie Mac's Website Freddie Mac on LinkedIn Freddie Mac on YouTube Freddie Mac on Twitter Freddie Mac on Facebook Jon Suber on LinkedIn Connect with Hire Ground: Hire Ground's Website Hire Ground on LinkedIn Hire Ground on Facebook Hire Ground on Twitter Cloe Guidry-Reed on LinkedIn Adam Moore on LinkedIn This podcast is brought to you by Hire Ground Hire Ground is a technology company whose mission is to bridge the wealth gap through access to procurement opportunities. Hire Ground is making the enterprise ecosystem more viable, profitable, and competitive by clearing the path for minority-led, women-led, LGBT-led, and veteran-led small businesses to contribute to the global economy as suppliers to enterprise organizations. For more information on getting started please visit us @ hireground.io today! If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and leave a review wherever you get your podcasts. Apple Podcasts | TuneIn | GooglePlay | Stitcher | Spotify Be sure to share your favorite episodes on social media and join us on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.
The Fed can raise interest rates, but they cannot create housing supply. Housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the second week in a row. This housing market is awful for primary residence homebuyers. But at GRE Marketplace, you can still buy income properties with rates as low as 4.75%. Rick tells us that the most prosperous markets now favor the: Midwest and Southeast, single-family homes, rental property investors with buy-and-hold strategies. National home prices are appreciating modestly. Home sales volume is still down. Investors now account for more than one-quarter of property purchases. Mortgage delinquencies are near an all-time low. Rick and I discuss why this market is so bad for flippers. High homeowner equity positions ($300K+) support this housing market. Timestamps: The impact of rising mortgage rates [00:02:37] Discussion on how the Federal Reserve's raising of short-term rates has caused mortgage rates to go up, affecting the housing market. The affordability challenge [00:03:38] Exploration of the impact of higher mortgage rates on homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, and the decrease in affordability. Low supply of homes [00:08:48] Analysis of the low inventory of homes for sale, with a decrease of 9% from the previous year and 47% from 2019, leading to a challenging market. The mortgage rate lock in effect [00:11:05] Discussion on how the mortgage rate lock in effect can crimp demand but cannot create supply. Hottest markets in the Midwest and Southeast [00:11:05] Analysis of the hottest real estate markets in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States. Positive turn in home price appreciation [00:13:06] Explanation of how home price appreciation went down but has recently turned positive again. Housing Permits, Starts, and Construction [00:21:24] Discussion on the trends and levels of housing permits, starts, and construction, and the need for builders to increase production. Investor Activity in the Residential Market [00:22:28] Exploration of the percentage of home purchases made by investors, with a focus on small and medium-sized investors and the misconception of institutional investors dominating the market. Delinquencies and Foreclosures [00:24:36] Analysis of mortgage delinquency rates, foreclosure activity, and homeowner equity, highlighting the low delinquency rates, the presence of equity in foreclosed homes, and the importance of early-stage foreclosure sales. The future direction of rents [00:32:00] Discussion on the potential upward pressure on rents due to low affordability and high homeownership rate. Inventory coming to the market [00:33:03] Exploration of the impact of expensive inventory coming to the market and its effect on rent prices. The overall economy and housing market [00:34:03] Consideration of the possibility of a recession, unemployment spike, and foreclosures affecting the housing market. The coach's role in finding real estate deals [00:43:06] Explanation of how an investment coach can help you find the best real estate deals in the marketplace. Advantages of buying properties from marketplace [00:44:20] Reasons why buying properties from marketplace can lead to good deals, including lower prices and absence of emotional seller involvement. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/467 Rick Sharga's website: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X (Twitter): @RickSharga Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold a terrific discussion today on the direction of the housing market, including lessons that you can learn for all time plummeting home sales volume and direly low home inventory. Why home price appreciation is taking place now. Could the government soon penalize you for owning too many rental properties? What's the best place for a real estate investor to position themselves in this era? And more today on Get Rich Education. (00:00:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. (00:00:56) - Walking from Horseheads, New York to Nags Head, North Carolina, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. And you're listening. To get rich education, you are going to get a fantastic market update today. And along the way, you'll also learn lessons if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was with us last week to discuss the economy. This week, it's episode two of two as we discuss the real estate market. (00:01:25) - He has been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms, and today he's the founder and CEO of Patrick Company, either a market intelligence firm for the real estate and mortgage markets. And he has 20 plus years of experience in those industries. It's the return of Rick Saga Part two of two. It's not imperative that you listen to last week's Part one of two that we can help you see the big picture. Enjoy this long, unbroken interview and then after the break, I'll come back to close it. Just you and I. We're talking with Rick Sagar, expert housing analyst, previously. We talked about the general condition of the economy. And now Rick and I are going to break down the housing market with what's happening there. There's so definitively connected. Keith One of the things to that the Federal Reserve has done by raising those short term rates is caused mortgage rates to go up, right? Mortgage rates tend to run loosely in line with the yields on the ten year US Treasury bonds that we talked about at the end of the first segment. (00:02:37) - Those are now up around 4%. And typically a 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be between one and a half and two percentage points higher than that yield. So in a normal market, we'd be looking at a mortgage rate today of about five and a half to 6%. Instead because of the risk and the volatility that the market is pricing in because they're not sure what the Federal Reserve is going to do next. We're looking at mortgage rates for a 30 year fixed rate loan of over 7%. The most recent numbers from last week from Freddie Mac, we were at almost 7.2% on that average, 30 year fixed rate loan and 6.5% on a 15 year fixed rate loan. You and I were talking before the show and and you know, historically speaking, if we keep these things in context, we're still actually below the 25 year average, which was 8%. But we have a whole generation of homebuyers who've come of age during the period of the lowest mortgage rates in the history of the country. They got spoiled, they got spoiled. (00:03:38) - And to be clear, it's one of the reasons that home prices rose as rapidly as they did and got as high as they are is because you could afford to make monthly payments with a two and a half, three, 3.5% mortgage. Now, you still have home prices about as high as they were then, and you have a mortgage rate that's doubled. And for most home buyers, particularly first time home buyers that make your monthly mortgage payment was going to go up by 45 to 60%. And most of us didn't get that 45 to 60% raise last year. It really had a huge impact on affordability. In fact, this is such an unusual occurrence that according to Freddie Mac, it's the only time in US history when mortgage rates doubled during a calendar year and they didn't just double in a calendar year. Keith They doubled in the space in a few months. It was that kind of systemic shock to the system that really hit the housing market as hard as it did. Right. And they've also nearly tripled in a pretty short period of time. (00:04:35) - Yeah, they really have. And again, going back historically speaking and and get this from Gen Z folks and millennials, when I talk about, you know, the old days of mortgage and I do remember my first mortgage had two numbers to the left of the decimal point. I forget if it was 11 or 12%, but it was something like that. And they basically say, okay, Boomer, but that 11% mortgage was on your $70,000 house, Right. And not, you know, today's median priced home of $430,000 or whatever it is. So it's a fair point. Mortgage rates are not high, historically speaking, but that monthly cost, because of the combination of home prices and higher interest rates, is choking some people and making affordability a problem. And because of that, one of the forward looking metrics that I take a look at is the purchase loan mortgage application index from the Mortgage Bankers Association. So this is the number of people that are applying for loans with the purpose of buying a house. (00:05:35) - They're off almost 30% on a year over year basis right now. You can see without straining your eyes at all the impact that these higher mortgage rates are having on the housing market. And we had almost record numbers of purchase loan applications from the time people who are allowed out of their house during the pandemic until these mortgage rates doubled from 2020 through the early part of 2022, mortgage rates were in the threes and fours and sometimes even in the twos. Yeah, everyone wants to talk about mortgage rates and it is an important discussion to have here at Marketplace with our investment coaches. Rick Some builders, as you know, they commonly offer rate buy down incentives to buyers of new homes. And what some of our providers are doing here, Rick, is we have one builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're buying down your income property's mortgage rate to 5.75%. And we have another builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're still buying down your mortgage rate to 4.75%. And of course, with Non-owner occupied property here, you know, previously you had talked about mortgage rates in excess of seven. (00:06:47) - They might normally be about 8% for non owner occupied property, but you're able to buy them down to five and three quarters or even four and three quarters with one of our providers for new builds right now, that's a great deal and your listener should really be taking advantage of those opportunities. We'll get into new homes in a few minutes and what we're seeing builders do for consumers, But have to tell you, those numbers are better deals than consumers are getting right now. And you're being generous when you're talking about private lending rates right now. Most of the lenders I'm familiar with are nine, ten, 11%, depending on the nature of your investment. So your folks are getting a great deal with those rates. We talked about purchase loan applications. The other advanced predictor I look at is pending home sales. These are people that are entering into contracts. The deal hasn't been closed yet. Has it been recorded yet? This comes out from the National Association of Realtors. And those numbers are down on a year over year basis as well. (00:07:42) - There's a lot of rate sensitivity in the market, though, Keith. And if you go back to March when rates went down just a fraction of a percent, we saw more purchase loan applications. We saw more pending home sales. But as rates have climbed back up over seven, we've seen both of these metrics go down. Yeah. So we're talking about pending home sales. We're talking about sales volume that's down in this discussion, not sales price. And anyone might be hard to say, but when you see sales volume that's down, including pending sales, how often is that due to worse affordability and how often is that due to low supply of homes? Why don't we jump right into that? Keith That's a great segue. And this is a very difficult time in the housing market because it has both of the factors that you just mentioned, two very difficult headwinds for the market to try and overcome. And and we'll get into details on both of those in just a minute. Because of that, existing home sales were down in July and they were down pretty significantly on a year over year basis, about 16%. (00:08:48) - And that's the 23rd consecutive month where existing home sales were lower than they were the prior year. January was the lowest month of sales this month, and it broke a streak we started this year. I was forecasting that we'd see between 4.3 and 4.4 existing home sales. That's down from about 5.2 last year in about 6.1 million the year before. Right now, we're trending at a little over 4 million existing home sales for the year. So even my relatively low forecast for the year may have been overly optimistic. You mentioned inventory and inventory is a huge headwind for the market. Inventory of homes for sale today is down about 9% from where it was a year ago. It's down 47% from where we were in 2019, which was probably the last normal year we've had in the housing market. In a normal year, we would be looking at about a six month supply of homes available for sale. That's what economists or housing market analysts will look at as a balanced market balance between supply and demand. We're at about two and a half months supply right now nationally and in many states it's much lower than that. (00:09:56) - So there's just not much out here. And the only reason the inventory number looks as good as it looks and it doesn't look very good is because it's taking a little longer to sell properties once they hit the market. If you were looking at new listing data, it's even worse. There's very little inventory coming to market in the way of new listings, and that's because of the rate increases we talked about a minute ago. 90% of borrowers with a mortgage have an interest rate on that mortgage of 6% or less. 70% have an interest rate of 4% or less. If you're sitting on a mortgage rate of 3.5% and you sell your house and buy a house at the same exact price with a 7% mortgage, you've just doubled your monthly mortgage payment. It's not that people psychologically don't want to trade a low rate for a high rate. There's a financial penalty for them doing so. And until we see mortgage rates come down a bit, probably into the fives, we're just not going to see a lot of inventory coming to market except for homeowners who need to sell or have so much equity and maybe you're going to downsize into a smaller property that they don't care about that kind of shift. (00:11:05) - Yeah, that is the mortgage rate lock in effect. Perfectly explain. And the Fed with the raising rates, they can crimp demand. But one thing that the Fed cannot do is create supply. As much as you might like to see Jerome Powell in work boots with a nail gun, that just doesn't happen. There's an image for you, for your listeners. Yeah, and I'm not sure I'd want to. I'd want to live in that house. That's not Chairman Powell building, but inspection. Yeah. Good economist. Maybe not a carpenter. We were talking about this a little bit earlier, too. And if you're an investor, this is probably worth noting, whether you're a fix and flip investor or investor who's buying properties to rent out a lot of the interest. This is from the sharing some data from Realtor.com and they've taken a look at where people are searching for properties and where transactions are taking place and they're finding that Midwest Southeast are really the hottest markets, places that are a little off the beaten path, you know, places in New Hampshire and Connecticut and Maine and Ohio and Wisconsin. (00:12:06) - But interestingly, some of the markets that had been suffering a little bit, they're starting to see a little more interest in whether it's California, but off the coast or markets in Colorado or Washington state. But clearly, a lot of the activity, a lot of the money is moving into the Midwest, in southeast. That's right. With the work from anywhere trend, you might see this small flattening and not as much of a disparity in home prices between markets. You're certainly still going to see that, but that can just help create a mild flattening when it doesn't matter where you live anymore and you can go ahead and purchase in lower cost markets. Yeah, and what I'm sharing now is national home prices, home price. And I'm glad you mentioned what you just did, Keith, because the fact of the matter is this has been a very localized correction. And if you're in San Francisco or San Jose, if you're in Seattle, if you're in Austin, if you're in Phoenix, you're in markets where prices are off 10% or more from peak. (00:13:06) - If you're in Boise, Idaho, you're off more than 10% from peak of Boise had oil prices go up by 47% in a single year, a year or so ago. So he just overshot the mark. One of the reasons the national numbers don't show more volatility is because of what Keith just mentioned. It's because people are trading in where they are in a high price, high tax state moving into a lower price state and candidly outbidding local buyers and probably overpaying a little bit for those properties. So you're seeing home prices go up in some of those less expensive markets much more rapidly than they would under normal circumstances. And what we're talking about here is national home prices that are appreciating at a modest rate now. Yeah, and they are. So if you look at whether you're looking at the Case-Shiller index, it gets published monthly or the National Association of Realtors data. We saw home price appreciation start to go down last year. It was still positive but going down and that was true until pretty much the end of the first quarter this year when the data went negative for the first time in years. (00:14:15) - So we were seeing on both a month over month and year over year basis home prices go down and that happened until June, June, things flatlined in July. Prices actually went up ah, year over year. So if you're looking at the median home price compared to the peak price a year ago, it's actually up about 1% from where we were last year, which is kind of amazing. The Case-Shiller index is a little bit of a lagging indicator and it rolls three months together, but it also started to turn the corner with its July report. So after almost a full year of price appreciation coming down and prices in decline, we've seen both of these indexes turn and are starting to go positive. It does show you that there continues to be demand for properties that are brought to market. And while home price appreciation certainly isn't soaring by any means, it's back in positive territory now. And that's something that a lot of people hadn't predicted this year. When the supply of homes is this low, it keeps generating a few bids for any available home. (00:15:21) - Now, not as many bids as it did back in 2021. But besides generating bids, you have these huge population cohorts of millennials and Gen Zers that are growing, and they're in their prime homebuyer years moving through the system to go ahead and place those bids and keep just modest home price appreciation here lately. That's sort of how I see it. Rick If you want to add any color or thoughts to that, I think you're spot on. Keith It's the largest cohort of young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 in US history. That's prime age for forming a household. 33 to 34 is the average age of a first time buyer right now. And so these people would like to buy a house. And for people who are investing in single family rental properties in particular, at least short term, the affordability issue is something that definitely works in your favor. If somebody was looking to buy a house, they might prefer to rent a house rather than rent an apartment. I've read research that shows somewhere between 20 and 30% of people who had planned to buy have decided to rent for the next year or two while market conditions settle down or while they can put aside more money for a down payment. (00:16:27) - These market conditions are playing in favor of people who have rental properties to offer. One other metric I'd like to share in terms of home prices, Keith is the FHFa puts out its own index. FHFa is the government entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So these are your conventional bread and butter, vanilla kind of 30 year fixed rate loans. If you look at their portfolio, home prices are actually up 3.1% year over year. And every sector of the country is showing positive rice appreciation except for the Pacific states and the mountain states. And those are some of the markets we talked about earlier. And even those are very close to breaking even at this point. So HFA breaks it into about ten regions, nine of those ten currently appreciating year over year. Yep, something like that important for you to know again as an investor as to what's happening in your region. Again, whether you're you're planning to sell the property or rent it out. You talked about what builders are doing for your investor folks. (00:17:28) - Yeah, we're seeing new home sales actually improving to consumers as well for a lot of the same reasons, incentives. So a lot of builders are coming to the closing table with cash. They're paying points on mortgages and getting those rates down where they're short term or long term. They're offering discounts, they're offering upgrades to properties. And so new home sales are still down, but just slightly on a year over year basis and have actually been beating last year's numbers for the last four months. My original estimate for new home sales this year was about 600,000. I think we're going to probably coming closer to 675,000 this year. And the only reason we won't sell more is because the builders aren't building that fast enough. But one of the reasons people are buying these new homes is because that's what's on the market today. People would have bought an existing home, can't find one. Here's the other factor. New home prices are down 16.4% from last year's peak. Now, this is informative. Think this would surprise a lot of people? Well, it surprises me. (00:18:28) - It should surprise people because new home prices almost always go up, right? This does not mean builders are discounting homes 16.4%. What's happening is they are building less expensive homes, They're less expensive per square foot, and they're building smaller homes. And they're doing that in acknowledgement of the higher cost of financing. That also, by the way, is in sending people to look at these properties as either a starter home or a minor move up kind of property. But it is one of the reasons why new home sales are doing better than existing home sales right now on a percentage basis. That's an interesting number, Rick. A few weeks ago, I shared with our newsletter audience that builders are building homes smaller and closer together, which might be reflected in lower prices, but just didn't think it would be 16.4% lower from peak. Now, if you're doing year over year, it's probably not that big of a drop, but from the peak price we are off. And it is to your point, it's a pretty significant number. (00:19:26) - It would be a problematic number if it was the existing home market, right, because then you'd be looking at the same property being worth 16% less. But a builder can kind of play with those numbers a little bit. Single family housing starts after falling for quite a while, are now back going back up only slightly from where they were a year ago, but they are moving in the right direction. Multifamily starts have actually tailed off a little bit after reaching record high numbers. There could be as many as a million apartment units coming to market this year. Yeah, which would be an all time record. So we've seen building on those multifamily units slow down a little bit. If you look at at new home starts for single family properties still below where they were a year ago. But again, for the first time in quite a few months, starting to trend up. A couple of things to share with your viewers here, Keith. In terms of construction, we're seeing construction continue to grow in the multifamily market because of all the starts we saw previously. (00:20:23) - We are seeing single family construction slowed down, but that's because the builders are working their way through a glut of homes that was under construction. So we had a really weird happenstance about a year ago, a little over year, we had the highest number of homes under construction ever. And this data goes back to the early 1970s, and we had the lowest number of completed properties available for sale ever. And a lot of that was due to supply chain delays and to labor shortages. And over the last year to 15 months, the builders have gradually begun working through this glut of homes that were started but not finished. And we've seen the number of completed homes go up a little bit, almost back to normal levels, not quite there. One of the reasons they're not quite there is people are buying these homes before they're completed. They're working with the builder. Buying a home is it's almost ready to go, but still under construction. What's been encouraging, looking into the future is that permitting has increased a bit over the last two quarters. (00:21:24) - We know builders are betting on the future. They're not necessarily breaking ground on all these properties they have permits for because they don't want to oversaturate either. And they're being very judicious with their building because they got caught with a ton of inventory during the Great Recession that they wound up selling at fire sale prices. But the trends are long term, looking like they're going in the right direction right now for new homes. So to help the viewer and listeners chronologically, we're talking about housing permits followed by housing starts. And then finally, housing construction. Right? Permits are up, starts are up recently, but down year over year. And the construction numbers are getting back close to normal levels. And we need the builders to build more because even before the rate lock effect took effect and existing home inventory got so scarce we didn't have enough housing in the works, we were depending on whose numbers you believe, somewhere between 2 and 6 million units short. We need the builders to come back to market. Note for your folks. (00:22:28) - Keith Investors continue to account for a fairly significant amount of activity in the residential market. Over a quarter of home purchases 26% in June, which is the most recent data we have, were made by investors and believe this number actually under reports the number of investor purchases because it's from a company called CoreLogic, it's accurate data for what they count, but they only count investor purchases where the buying entity has an LLC and LP Corp kind of entity. And we know that a lot of buyers don't do that who are investors. So it probably understates it. But the fact of the matter is that historically speaking, 26% of residential purchases being done by investors is pretty high number. That's a pretty high number and as you alluded to, is probably actually higher than 26% of home purchases being made by investors. And so the headlines will breathlessly tell you that Main Street is being gobbled up by Wall Street. Oh, I know. And those institutional investors are evil people. They're buying everything that the truth is is completely the opposite. (00:23:31) - If you look at investors who are buying properties, it's really the small investors who are buying about 46% of those investor purchases and medium sized investors about 35%. If you're looking at the biggest of the big investors, they're buying less than 10% of what's going out today. And they still own collectively about 3% of the single family rental stock. It's the mom and pop investor who continues to drive the market. Yeah, I'm glad you bring this up, Rick, because there seems to be this outsized perception that institutional money through someone like, say, in Invitation homes is just gobbling up all the good investor homes. And and they're really not. It's mom and pop investors that rule. In fact, there's some legislation pending in D.C. right now that's aimed to keep these institutional investors from doing what they're already not doing and have some tax penalties for anybody who owns. Here's the number that's important. More than 50 properties well, Invitation Homes owns significantly more than 50 properties. I know a lot of medium sized investors who own more than 50 properties. (00:24:36) - Yeah, they're certainly not institutional investors. They certainly don't have a hedge fund behind them. Important again, for folks in this market to be in touch with their legislators and let them know what's really going on in the marketplace so we don't get this kind of bad legislation. It makes it tough for the average investor to really take full advantage of the opportunities that are out there. 100%. Mom and pop investors might need more than 50 units to obtain financial freedom. Yep. Just to wrap up, Keith, a couple of points on delinquencies and foreclosures. I know a lot of investors got into the business, you know, a decade or so ago and there was just a rash of foreclosure activity and you could buy a distressed property by just walking down the street and knocking on doors. It's a little different these days because of that strong economy we talked about earlier. In that low unemployment rate. Mortgage delinquencies are at an all time low. Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the midpoint of this year, at the end of the second quarter, the total delinquency rate was 3.37%. (00:25:36) - To put that in context, historically the number is somewhere between 4 and 5%. So not only are we not seeing a lot of delinquencies, we're seeing less than we would see normally as seriously delinquent loans. The ones that are 90 days plus past due is as low as we've seen it in probably the last 6 or 7 years. That's really interesting. So not very many homeowners are in trouble with making their payments, which to some people might seem like a conflict with what we described back in the earlier part of the chat about low savings and higher credit card debt. So many of these homeowners are locked in to these really low payments where they got low mortgage interest rates. Plus inflation cannot touch those fixed rate payments. And that's an important point for those people that are in these homes. It would be more expensive for them to go rent right now, probably because they got such a good deal on the mortgage rate. There's usually a pretty strong correlation between unemployment rates and mortgage delinquency rates. So I mentioned that the most recent report had unemployment at 3.8%. (00:26:37) - I think at the end of June it was a 3.5%. So we might see delinquency rates tick up a little bit. There was also some really bad social media memeing going on during the government's mortgage forbearance program. There was even an economist who predicted that almost everybody who got a forbearance was going to go into default and that would have been a catastrophe. If you look back a little over a year ago, actually more like two years ago when there was there were a lot of people in forbearance. You saw delinquency rates very high, but that was because people were allowed to miss payments. They were just being counted by the industry as delinquent. The fact is that less than a half of a percent, less than one half of 1% of the borrowers who were in forbearance and there were 8.5 million of them have defaulted on their loans. The overwhelming majority have done very, very well with that program. So it really didn't contribute to any kind of delinquency or default activity. So strong economy, extremely high, low quality because lenders really haven't been making many risky loans since the Great Recession. (00:27:40) - The record amount of of homeowner equity that's out there. Yeah. Is keeping this market pretty solid to the point where foreclosure activity today is still running at a little bit less than 60% of pre-pandemic levels. So in a normal market, about 1 to 1.5% of loans are in some state of foreclosure. In today's market, it's about a half a percent. So we're just not seeing much go into foreclosure and the properties that go into foreclosure. The homeowners have a significant amount of equity. 92% of borrowers in foreclosure have equity in their homes, which is wildly different from where we were during the great financial crisis, when a third of all homeowners were underwater on their loans. At just about everybody in foreclosure was upside down. And people push back at me when I'm out talking at conferences about this. Keith Oh, yeah, they have equity, but they don't have enough equity to make a difference. Oh, yes, they do. 88% of the borrowers in foreclosure have more than 20% equity. That's typically the magic number that a realtor will tell you you need in order to sell your property and avoid any other kind of complications with one of these foreclosures, preventing any sort of fire sale and lowering of prices that makes all home prices go down in a neighborhood where not anywhere near that. (00:28:57) - No, not at all. And in fact, some other data that I'll share with you and your listeners is that about 62% of the distressed property sales we see right now are properties in the early stage of foreclosure prior to the foreclosure auction, which means these distressed homeowners are protecting their equity by selling the property before it gets sold at a foreclosure sale. And so they're protecting the vast amount of this equity. But if you're an investor in today's market, there's some really important information in what I just gave you. You can't wait for the bank repossession. In this cycle, bank repossessions are running 70% below where they were prior to the pandemic, so there's fewer properties getting to auction because 67% of these distressed property sales are prior to the auction. Properties that get to auction are selling through at about 60% rate. So there's nothing going back to the lenders. So if you want to buy a property in some stage of foreclosure, your best bet in today's market is to get a list of people in the early stages of foreclosure and reach out directly to them. (00:30:01) - Your second best bet is to get to that foreclosure auction. Be ready to move at the auction, and your worst bet is to wait for the lender to repossess the property. And in fact, I've seen anecdotal data that suggests that those properties are actually more expensive than the ones you could buy from the homeowner or at the auction because the lenders are fixing them up and selling them at full market price. Good guidance for those chasing distressed properties. So that's what's going on in the foreclosure market. I don't see foreclosure activity being back to normal levels until sometime next year. And I don't see activity bank repossessions being back to normal levels even next year. It's a very different marketplace. This is what I was just talking about. Keith If you were to break up what selling and what stage of the foreclosure process right now, about 64% of distressed sales are taking place prior to the foreclosure auction and less than 20%. Distressed sales today are those background properties. So it's a very different world than what a lot of investors grew up in. (00:31:03) - Rick is about to share his summary with us, his closing thoughts. Before he does that, I've got two questions for you, Rick. I hear some people out there, it seems to be oftentimes the real estate agent type, maybe that's trying to be a big cheerleader for the market. And I hear a few of them say something like, hey, you know what? You better buy now, because when mortgage rates fall, home prices are really going to shoot through the roof. I don't really know that that necessarily happens because when mortgage rates fall, okay, that might increase demand of capable homebuyers, but it should also increase supply. Now, the mortgage rate lock in effect, goes away and more people will want to bring supply onto the market. And I also like to think about what happens when rates are falling. Typically, that means the economy needs help and unemployment might be a little higher. So my thoughts, Rick, are if mortgage rates do fall substantially, that might help home price appreciation a little bit, but I don't see it as any sure thing that that would make home prices go through the roof. (00:32:00) - What are your thoughts? It's a great question. You make a very logical argument. A lot of it comes down to supply. And that's where I would hedge my bets. I don't think we see a ton of supply come back to market until rates are back in the low fives. So there's a point and a half of interest going from little over seven to maybe 5.5%, where we're probably going to see more buyers come to market than we're going to see inventory come to the market. My other thought we touched on it earlier is with rents. Talk to me about the future direction of rents. They were horribly hot a year or two ago, up 15% year over year. Rents have moderated substantially. But with this really lousy home affordability and a high homeownership rate, it seems like with this low affordability, we're set up for the homeownership rate to go lower in the proportion that rent go higher, which could put upward pressure on rents over time here. What are your thoughts with rents? Yeah, offsetting what you just said is a record number of apartment units coming to market this year. (00:33:03) - There are likely to be some markets across the country that wind up oversupplied because of the amount of inventory coming to market. Now, don't get me wrong, the inventory coming to market is going to tend to be expensive inventory. And so that in and of itself could make rent prices come up a bit. I do believe in the short term I would tend to agree with you that the lack of housing stock available for people who would like to buy is going to play in the benefit of the folks who own properties to rent. And that will, I believe, be particularly true for people that own single family residential units that are like houses to rent. I guess we're going to split the difference on these two questions. I'm going to mostly agree with you on the second one. I do believe there's a chance prices will go up a little bit more than you think as mortgage rates come down until we get down to about 5.5%, mortgage rates are lower when we see more of that inventory coming to market. And what is the real wild card in all of this, of course, is what happens with the overall economy. (00:34:03) - Do we enter a recession? Does unemployment spike? If that's the case, that should weaken, demand a bit and you could have a little bit of an uptick in foreclosures, which will weaken the market as well. So a lot of different components at play. And I think what people ask you questions like that, Keith, about, you know, mortgage rates come down, is this going to happen? They kind of oversimplify the equation quite a bit. There are a lot of other variables that go into it. 100%. Why don't you go ahead and share your closing thoughts with us? A lot of stuff we covered, so I won't dwell on too much of this very long. But from my perspective, a recession is still a real possibility. Probably not until next year if we have one. And if we do, it's likely to be pretty mild and fairly short and we shouldn't see a huge, huge spike in unemployment. I do believe that as the Fed decides it's done raising the Fed funds rate and announces that we'll see mortgage rates gradually decline back toward 6% by the end of this year. (00:34:57) - And we'll be back in the fives next year. And by the way, historically, every time the Fed has stopped raising the Fed funds rate, we have seen mortgage rates come back down. Existing home sales right now are on pace for their lowest number since 2009. Likely, we're going to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.2 million existing home sales. But we're likely to see more new home sales than a lot of people had forecast beginning of this year, maybe 650, 675,000 of those sales in 2023. And we've seen prices decline in the new home market, but they might have bottomed out in the existing home market because of the supply and demand thing that Keith and I have kind of beaten to death during this podcast. Again, importantly for this audience, investors continue to account for a very large percentage of residential purchases and a lot of you seem to be shifting toward buy and hold strategies, which again makes ultimately good sense in a market like today's. And then that anticipated wave of foreclosures that all those folks on YouTube were trying to sell you courses to figure out how to maximize never materialized. (00:35:57) - And at least during this cycle, not likely to any time soon. Probably won't. Yes, A lot of people a couple of years ago, especially on YouTube, were talking about a certain price collapse is coming and it never happened. And I never saw how it would have happened and I never made those sort of dire predictions. Well, Rick, this was a great chat about the overall economy, the housing market and what investors need with the housing market. I'm sure our audience learned an awful lot. It was a terrific update. If our audience wants to learn more about you and kind of wish this chat would just go on and they could learn more about you and engage with your resources. What's the best way for them to do that? Well, you can certainly follow me on social media. I refuse to say my Twitter handle is just Rick Saga. I'm on LinkedIn to hard to find there. You can also check out my website which is Patrick. Com. Enjoy doing these conversations with you Keith. (00:36:51) - Think the first time we talked you reached out because I had come down like the wrath of God on somebody who was predicting a housing price crash because I didn't see one coming either and thought he was doing investors a disservice. So keep the faith and keep the good fight going. Keith And I'll be here whenever you want to talk. Jerry Listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They have provided our tribe with more loans than anyone there truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. Com. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with freedom family investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. (00:38:00) - Their minimums are as low as 25. K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660. And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six six, eight six, six. Hi, this is Russell Gray, co-host of the Real Estate Guy's radio show. And you're listening to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold. Don't Quit Your Day dream. Yeah, terrific insight from Rick, as usual. It's remarkable how much this interview is aligned with what we're doing here. As Rick discussed how, though, it's a tough environment for homebuyers, it's better for investors, especially for single family rentals and especially in the Midwest and South are core areas. (00:39:23) - It's a better market for the buy and hold investor than it is for flippers. It's a tough chase for flippers. Sometimes you don't flip the house, the house flips you. There are still so few homeowners in delinquency and foreclosure. Rick believes that when lower mortgage rates come, home, prices could appreciate more than I tend to think. We'll see how that turns out. And, you know, historically here, as we talk about the direction of home prices and the direction of rent growth Now with respect to home prices, when I provided you with the home price appreciation forecast, I keep somewhat undershooting. The market appreciation tends to outperform what I think by just a bit. Back in 2018, 2019, home price appreciation rates, they were just kind of bumping along at 4 or 5%. Back then, interest rates were super low, housing supply was more balanced. And I said right here on this show then about five years ago, that I don't see what will make home price growth like really accelerate or shoot up from here. (00:40:32) - Well, then we had the pandemic, something that no one saw coming when the pandemic fog cleared. You remember that all here on the show in late 2021, I forecast 9 to 10% home price appreciation for the coming year, which back then I was talking about 2022. And then that appreciation rate for 2022 came in at 10.2%. Although I was close, I shot just a touch low. Now at the end of 2022, well, about nine months ago, I predicted zero home price appreciation for this year. As we near the fourth quarter, it looks like we'll get low single digit appreciation, but that remains to be seen. However, I've long been undershooting the market just a bit, though. Close and mortgage rates. No, don't even ask me. I don't try I don't make mortgage forecast. That is too hard to do. Making a mortgage rate prediction is almost like a certain way to be wrong. Although Rick and I talked about how this is a good market for investors, to my point from last week, in some markets, cash flow has become an endangered species with some of these increasing expenses for investors. (00:41:46) - And again, I have some really good news for you here. We have largely solved that problem here at Gray of higher mortgage rates, hurting your cash flow. And that's why investors like you are still snapping up rental properties from Marketplace right now because of the strength of our marketplace network and relationships. Here we have a new build provider offering a mortgage rate to investors of 5.75%. Yes, they will see that your rate is bought down to 5.75%. In today's environment, another new build investment property provider is offering a rate buy down to 4.75%. Yes, you heard THAtrillionIGHT? And we have another builder provider where our investment coaches have been sharing with you a 2.99% seller financing option. There is more to it than that. And these builders, though they are in business to move property. So take advantage of it where you can. And besides buying down your mortgage rate for you like that, some are even waiving their property management fee for you for the first year. In addition to buying down the rate. I don't know how long all that's going to last, so this can be a really good time for you to contact your in investment coach. (00:43:06) - Your coach will help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Today, your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace. Com slash coach and they're there to help you out. And marketplace properties they are often less expensive than elsewhere in addition to the low rates from some of the providers. But now you might wonder why often are the prices not always, but often, why are they lower? Well, first of all, investor advantage markets just intrinsically have lower prices than the national median. And secondly, there is no real estate agent to compensate with the traditional 6% commission, you are buying more directly. Thirdly, these property providers, they are not. And pop flippers that provide investors like you and other people where they just flip like one home a year instead. These are builders and renovation and management companies in business to do this at scale so they get to buy their materials in bulk, keeping the price lower for you. (00:44:20) - And another reason that you tend to find good deals at Marketplace is that you aren't buying properties from owner occupants where their emotions get involved and they get irrational over there on the seller side. So you can go ahead and get started with off market deals at GRI, marketplace.com. If you'd like the free coaching from our investment coaches, then contact your coach. And if you don't have one yet again you can do that straight at GRI marketplace.com/coach that's an action item for you this week that your future self should thank you for until next week. I'm your host Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream. (00:45:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively. (00:45:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education.
Welcome back to the Raising Private Money podcast! In today's episode, we have a very special discussion lined up for you. We are joined by our good friend, Eddie Speed, an expert in the field of Raising Private Money for real estate investments. Eddie and Jay delve into the current state of the real estate investing market, highlighting the challenges faced by commercial and multifamily real estate. They discuss the decreasing loan production by major players in the industry, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the exit of commercial lenders like Blackstone and KKR. They bring attention to the increasing difficulties faced by landlords and rental properties, causing many investors to seek alternative investment options.But fear not! Eddie and Jay are here to shed light on the solutions and opportunities available. They share their insights on raising private money, including their own experiences and strategies. From starting conversations with potential lenders to utilizing social media platforms to showcase their activities, they provide valuable tips and guidance for those looking to attract private investment for their real estate ventures. They also discuss the abundance of investment opportunities in the note market, where inventory is high and returns on investment are better than ever before.So join us as we journey through 40 years of raising private money with Eddie Speed and Jay Conner, the Private Money Authority. Get ready to gain a deep understanding of the current real estate landscape and discover the keys to successfully Raising Private Money! Timestamps00:01 - Expert in private money and creative financing.04:51 - Know your avatar, customer, and capital source. Find investable, non-dealmaker partners.07:13 - How to start a conversation with a potential Private Lender11:57 - Rental properties struggling, multifamily loan production down.18:54 - Young cowboy stumbles into real estate success.23:58 - The banking industry facing significant challenges, and potential consolidation.28:01 - Characteristics, payments, property, buyer, terms, history, paperwork.31:04 - Teach. Achieve goals. Compress time.32:03 - Connect With Eddie Speed: https://www.NoteSchool.com/Jay 33:01 - Simplified method for showing a good deal.35:36 - Get a free guide on Raising Private Money: https://www.JayConner.com/MoneyGuide Connect With Jay Conner: Private Money Academy Conference: https://www.JaysLiveEvent.comFree Report:https://www.jayconner.com/MoneyReportJoin the Private Money Academy: https://www.JayConner.com/trial/Have you read Jay's new book: Where to Get The Money Now?It is available FREE (all you pay is the shipping and handling) at https://www.JayConner.com/Book What is Private Money? Real Estate Investing with Jay Connerhttp://www.JayConner.com/MoneyPodcast Jay Conner is a proven real estate investment leader. Without using his own money or credit, Jay maximizes creative methods to buy and sell properties with profits averaging $67,000 per deal.#RealEstate #PrivateMoney #FlipYourHouse #RealEst
Based in Phoenix, Arizona and Atlanta, GA, Jack Pomerantz is a Director of Real Estate Finance in Walker & Dunlop's Multifamily Finance Group. Mr. Pomerantz is an expert in multifamily financing, with over $2 billion in transactions personally underwritten, analyzed, and originated throughout his career. He is responsible for originating new loans for small balance and conventional multifamily properties nationwide as well as managing multifamily transactions from initial quote to close.Prior to his current role, Mr. Pomerantz began his career as an Underwriter at Walker & Dunlop. He offers substantial experience in sourcing and executing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt, along with his knowledge of market rate, affordable housing, value-add, lease-up, student housing, seniors housing, and bridge lending.Mr. Pomerantz earned his bachelor's degree in real estate and finance from Auburn University.If you want to connect with Jack, please email me and I will introduce you to him.CONNECT WITH JONATHANTo connect with Jonathan, you can send email at email@example.com or schedule a time to chat.To learn more about real estate investment opportunities, join the Greystone Capital Investor Network.Thanks for listening and until next time, keep building wealth in Commercial Real Estate!
PROVEN STRATEGIES FOR SOLVING HOUSING SHORTAGES IN COMMUNITIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA Bethany Quinn - Vice President of Strategy and Content Development for Golden Shovel Dennis is joined by Bethany Quinn from Golden Shovel, and they discuss PROVEN STRATEGIES FOR SOLVING HOUSING SHORTAGES IN COMMUNITIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, a Golden Shovel white paper. For economic developers housing is one of the major topics we deal with, especially workforce housing. The data behind the Golden Shovel white paper and the role the pandemic played Pre-pandemic communities were facing housing shortages that negatively impacted their ability to grow. Compnaies needed more housing for their employees. People couldn't move for employment opportunities because there wasn't affordable housing Housing shortages are now at the forefront of public consciousness and the existing housing costs exponentially more. Case-Shiller Index Report showed an 18.8% annual home price increase. Zumper's National Rent Report showed that rent for a one-bedroom apartment hit an all-time high of $1,400 in 2022, for the national average– this is a 12 percent year-over-year increase. The United States alone has a housing shortfall of 3.8 million units. According to Freddie Mac researchers, “The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes. T Information Contained in a Housing Study The structure of a housing study varies from consultant to consultant and is based on community priorities. Some of the common features are as follows: • Analysis of current housing supply, broken down by owner-occupied vs. rental, and type of housing. • Report on the condition of current housing stock, including identifying the number of homes that should be torn down or need serious renovations to be livable. • Analysis of the affordability of housing for the existing workforce. • Estimate how many housing units will be needed, per category, over the next five years. • Location breakdown for housing demand (necessary for a regional report). • Determination of how many housing units need to be built as “workforce housing.” • Determination of how much senior housing will be needed. • A projection of how the housing needs could change if the EDO's work results in job growth. • Analysis of the community's current development capabilities and if outside developers will be needed to meet housing targets. Best Practices Pattern Zoning & Pre-Approvals As a Strategy in Claremore, OK EMPOWER INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS TO BUILD INCENTIVES & POLICY TO SPUR WORKFORCE HOUSING DEVELOPMENT TAKE AN ACTIVE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Spurring Housing Development Without Significant Capital in Clinton, Iowa REZONE TO INCREASE DENSITY REPURPOSE LAND & BUILDINGS TURN BLIGHT INTO OPPORTUNITIES
Today's guest is Malcolm Turner Malcolm has over 25 years in the financial services industry but specializes exclusively in commercial lending. In 2007, he co-founded Castle Commercial Capital LLC, a national commercial mortgage banker and brokerage based in Southfield, MI. Show summary: In this episode, Sam interviews Malcolm Turner, co-founder of Castle Commercial Capital LLC. Malcolm shares his journey into commercial lending, starting with his background in financial services and his transition from residential lending to commercial lending. He discusses the challenges and opportunities in the current market, emphasizing the importance of finding the right financing options for different types of deals. Malcolm also talks about the benefits of bridge lending and gives examples from the self-storage industry. -------------------------------------------------------------- Intro [00:00:00] Starting a Commercial Mortgage Brokerage [00:00:49] Surviving the Financial Crisis and COVID [00:03:21] Specializing in Multifamily and Bridge Loans [00:05:46] The importance of speed and time in closing deals [00:11:34] The risk and challenges of unbankable deals [00:15:40] Strategic repositioning of a hotel property [00:19:16] The challenges and opportunities in the current market [00:22:27] Using premier properties to feed applications and keep occupancy high [00:23:34] The importance of meeting with a finance guy ahead of a deal [00:24:36] -------------------------------------------------------------- Connect with Malcolm: YouTube: @CastleCommercialCapital LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/malcolmturner/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/malcolm.a.turner Twitter: @CastleLoans Connect with Sam: I love helping others place money outside of traditional investments that both diversify a strategy and provide solid predictable returns. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HowtoscaleCRE/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samwilsonhowtoscalecre/ Email me → firstname.lastname@example.org SUBSCRIBE and LEAVE A RATING. Listen to How To Scale Commercial Real Estate Investing with Sam Wilson Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-scale-commercial-real-estate/id1539979234 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4m0NWYzSvznEIjRBFtCgEL?si=e10d8e039b99475f -------------------------------------------------------------- Want to read the full show notes of the episode? Check it out below: Malcolm Turner (00:00:00) - A lot of people that were doing bridge loan deals that shouldn't have. Mm. And so now with the price increases, okay, they're not competitive and it's like, oh, bridge loans are bad. No, that deal should have never been in a bridge loan in the first place. Sam Wilson (00:00:14) - Welcome to the How to scale commercial real estate show. Whether you are an active or passive investor, we'll teach you how to scale your real estate investing business into something big. Malcolm Turner has over 25 years in the financial services industry. He specializes, though, exclusively in commercial lending. In 2007, he co-founded Castle Commercial Capital, LLC. They are a national commercial mortgage banker and brokerage based in Southfield, Michigan. Malcolm, welcome to the show. Malcolm Turner (00:00:46) - Thanks, Sam. Thanks for having me on. I'm honored to be here. Sam Wilson (00:00:49) - Absolutely. Malcolm, The pleasure is mine. There are three questions I ask every guest who comes on the show in 90s or less. And you tell me, where did you start? Where are you now and how did you get there? Malcolm Turner (00:00:58) - I started in. Malcolm Turner (00:01:01) - Well, how far you want to go back? I started in financial services as a financial advisor. And then the laws changed with Glass-Steagall, where everyone got in everyone's backyard. You know, insurance guys selling brokerage and broker, selling insurance and got into residential lending. That was a tremendously lucrative at the time. You couldn't do deals fast enough. There wasn't enough appraisers to do them at that time. This is oh five, oh six, and was having a conversation with my pastor and his office one day about me doing the right thing for a client, which meant putting him in a fixed rate FHA loan, and my manager wanted me to put them in an option arm that would have blowed up three years later had we, you know, you know, new had a crystal ball. And I was like, Yeah, but this guy is a single guy. First deal. We should do the right thing, right? Oh, there you go, Malcolm Talking about that. Do the right thing. Stuff, you know, and I said to my pastor, why he's doing the right thing. Malcolm Turner (00:01:57) - A batch of dishonor. And he says, Well, if you were going to do a company, you know, mortgage broker, brokerage, how would you do it? I'm like, well, do commercial because commercial is about the numbers. It's not about the kitchens and the bathrooms. It's the math. You know, And we talked about I said, you set up an office and you have to build relationships with lenders and do this, that and the other. And that's about all it would take. It goes, Great, let's do it. I was like, Oh, I thought we were talking hypothetical. He's like, No, I love you like a brother and I trust you with money. We should do it. And I was like, okay. I was like, Well, I love you too, man, and I trust you. But the only thing about mortgages. So we would be doing all the work and we're splitting the money and I don't want to mess up our relationship. Malcolm Turner (00:02:41) - And he's like, Yeah, you're right, Malcolm. I totally get that. Tell you what, you you don't have to train me. I get it. I'll be humble, let you coach me. Um, let's build a legacy for our families, and I'll fund it. And you set it up, and then we'll be evenly yoked. I was like. Okay. And that's how Castle Commercial Capital was born 16 years ago. Sam Wilson (00:03:06) - Wow. That's a that's an unconventional story. I love that getting into lending in 2007 doesn't seem like the most favorable time to start a company like that. Malcolm Turner (00:03:21) - It was not. Our saving grace was the residential market crashed first. Commercial really didn't get pounded until 2010. That's about when the, you know, it finally caught up to commercial. You know, but since then, we've survived the great financial crisis. We survived Covid. You know, we've even survived just the latest rate increase over the last year because there's been quite amount, quite a bit of turmoil, especially on my side of the table. Malcolm Turner (00:03:54) - You know, lenders have gotten and all lenders are going out of business. You know, when lending stopped during Covid and in March of 2020, by the time June and July rolled around, some of those lenders didn't make it, you know, and we're still here. So I'm I'm I'm glad to do that. But, I mean, that's not because I'm special or anything like that. But I've always recognized like when Covid hit, I said, okay, no one's funding right now. Not sure when they're going to kick up. So let's redo our website. It's a great time to do it. Let's redo our marketing. As a matter of fact, let's come out with a commercial mobile lending app. Let's do that. You know, and so I've always tried to stay out front and say, okay, you know, like Wayne Gretzky said, you know, he's great because he skates to where the puck is going. Not to where the puck is, you know. And that's up the side. Malcolm Turner (00:04:51) - And then we just wrote our book financing the Bankable deal, you know, And so I was at the commercial, the National Commercial Mortgage Brokers Conference in Vegas last year, and I was talking to a bunch of commercial lenders and saying, Hey, I'm writing this book. Where do you guys think the market is going and what's it doing? And, you know, did I cover everything? You know, Is there anything I missed? And one of the guys was somewhat skeptical. And we had a breakout session the next day. And during the breakout session, he found out everyone on the panel had done business with me. But him. He was like, Wait a minute, you did business with him. You did along with him. And both of the guys going, Yeah, he sure did. Yes, he does. They're like, Well, okay, well, you got to get us in there, right? You know? And I was like, Yeah, okay. You know, that's awesome. Sam Wilson (00:05:38) - That's awesome. Well, tell me this. What what is the type of lending that you specialize in now? Malcolm Turner (00:05:46) - Right now, most of our business is multifamily. Most of our businesses are multifamily and we kind of slid into the bridge loan, the bridge lending space because you know, the market for deals. That are picked over and everyone's fighting for. If the market is this big, those deals are this big. Sam Wilson (00:06:09) - Right. Malcolm Turner (00:06:10) - And so there's another you know, this is a stat a lot of people don't know, but like 85% of commercial loan applications are denied. Yeah. Believe that are denied. Right. That doesn't mean that the other that the the 15% are great and the other 85% are terrible. You know, there's probably another 25%. Of those deals that are doable. They just don't know how to do them when their bank says no. Right. Right. And so I was at a a commercial multifamily meetup and a banker was doing the presentation on financing. And at the end of it, they said someone asked the question, well, outside of there were a small community bank outside of you guys doing loans, who else can do them? Another way to do multifamily as well, the small banks and big banks. Malcolm Turner (00:07:02) - And I was like, That's it. And they were like, Yeah, just just those two. And that was from their perspective, Right, Right. And I was like, okay. So I posted in the group on their Facebook page. There's seven alternative ways of financing deals between Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, USDA, FHA, HUD, Right. Private lending, bridge lending. There's a whole smorgasbord of options, you know, and everyone's getting in the business. You have insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds that are setting up mortgage funds. So there's plenty of capital in the marketplace. Now, deals, on the other hand, is another story, but there's plenty of capital to get to get deals done right. Just no matter what, it's going to cost you. And then if you're buying, can I price my deal where the cost of capital makes sense, you know? Sam Wilson (00:07:54) - Right. Right. That that's the the kicker right there. Can I price my deal where the cost of capital makes sense? And, you know, there's a lot of fear, I think, in the marketplace right now. Sam Wilson (00:08:09) - What are we on? And you would know this stat better than me, but I read it maybe. A month ago. That year to date, transaction volume in the multifamily space was down 75% nationally. The rising interest rates are a concern, as you said. You know, you guys have weathered through that. But having, you know, specializing in the bridge lending space, there's a lot of people that look at bridge lending now, especially with a, you know, suspiciously. They look at it and go, oh, absolutely. Bridge lending. Don't I got to go? Like, that's not for me. Tell me why it still is a good option for the deals you guys are getting done. Malcolm Turner (00:08:51) - Well, I think you start with when is it inappropriate? Mm. Right. If you have a cherry deal, it's cash on like crazy. You got tremendous occupancy or expense ratio is is fantastic. The property condition is great, the location is great. You know, you don't need a bridge loan. Malcolm Turner (00:09:16) - And what I've seen is for convenience and speed and just, you know, again, convenience because it's not as many hoops to jump through. A lot of people that were doing bridge loan deals that shouldn't have. Mm. And so now with the price increases, okay, they're not competitive and it's like, oh, bridge loans are bad. No, that deal should have never been in a bridge loan in the first place. Sam Wilson (00:09:39) - Right. Malcolm Turner (00:09:40) - You know, so for me I look at if the deal has something wrong, if it's got what we call heron on the deal, poor occupancy, poor cash flow, you know, there's all time. There's a situation where there's a time sensitive thing going on. Like, for example, I had to deal with closed where there was two partners, two guys partnering on a deal. They own the property probably about 5 or 6 years when I was getting a divorce. And and, you know, sometimes you see it coming. Sam Right. You sort of know the handwriting's on the wall, right? And the one partner says, Look, if you're getting divorced, we got to get out of this partnership because I don't want your wife winning, winning your half of the deal, and I can't be partners with her. Malcolm Turner (00:10:28) - Right. You couldn't make it work. I sure as hell can't. Right. So. So they were looking to get out fast. Their property manager was my client. So I have been he's been I do commercial real estate meetup here locally in Southfield, Michigan. And this guy's been coming to my meetups a couple of years and he had about ten rental properties. And so we did a portfolio loan, cashed out of his cash, a bunch of equity out of his residential. And then literally 45 days later, these guys said, Hey, hey, Rob, do you know anybody that might want to buy this property? Because we got to get out fast. And he was like, Hey, me, me, me, me, me. Right. He's already been the property manager and he had the cash and he knows what the issues were with, with the property, right. And there were certain things they were they should have done, but they weren't doing. They could have made it more profitable. Malcolm Turner (00:11:25) - And so he knew where it could go. So we financed that deal, got those guys out, and we closed in like 30 days. Sam Wilson (00:11:33) - Wow. Malcolm Turner (00:11:34) - You know, and for the speed for closing that quickly and beating the attorney right to the courthouse, you know, he got that property at like a 15 know 18% discount to value. Right? Right. So for some sellers. Speed and time. Let's just say time is more important than money. Right, Right, right. And so, you know, you have to say and play a blue ocean strategy. And say, okay, where am I looking at deals that no one else is looking at and then how do I make that work? And then that's where a bridge loan could come in. And even if the deal is is fine and there's no pressing issues like these two partners had, you might still offer that lower price. But I will close quickly. I will close in three weeks. I will close in 30 days or less, you know, and see if they bite now, if they don't bite. Malcolm Turner (00:12:32) - And he says, okay, fine, you didn't you know, you didn't bite. I guess I won't have to go the traditional route, you know, because there's going to be a higher cost with the bridge loan. Sure. Right. But if I'm getting an 18% discount off a value. I don't care. Sam Wilson (00:12:47) - Right. Malcolm Turner (00:12:48) - The math works, right? Sam Wilson (00:12:50) - Well, hopefully the math works, because even if it's a discount, if the current cash flows don't cover the, you know, the current expenses, then it becomes an interesting, interesting equation. Malcolm Turner (00:13:02) - Well, right. That's where the math has the math. Right. Right. And I say that in my in my book. The math has to work. Right. Right. And you can't fall in. And one of the mistakes sometimes investors will make is they'll they'll find a deal or maybe it's a deal that been paying on for a long time. It finally comes available. They get a shot at it and it's a bad deal. And I'm telling them it's a bad deal. Malcolm Turner (00:13:28) - They got other advisers telling them it's a bad deal and somehow they still trying to make it work. I remember I had a guy shop a deal to me three times in two years. In the first time, I was like, Yeah, I don't think this is going to work. He didn't listen. He went to someone else, you know, didn't work, pay some guys money up front to quote unquote pre-approval or some nonsense. Okay. And came back to me. And then the third time, a real estate commercial real estate brokerage here in town say, hey, Mac, I got a client coming in tomorrow. He's got this big deal downtown Detroit. We're trying to make it work, you know, I know it's short notice, but can you meet me in my office at 10:00? Because he doesn't have his financing set. And I was like, sure, sure. I walked up to the meeting and the guy's name the broker's name was Levi, right. And I was like, Hey, Levi, how are you doing? Is that good? He's like, Malcolm. Malcolm Turner (00:14:20) - I was like, Mike. And Mike was like, Hey, Malcolm, how are you doing? I'm like, Good. He was like, Oh, you know, each other. I was like, Oh, yeah, right. And we went to talk about the deal and he was like, Yeah, I got the spreadsheets. Like, It's okay, Mike. I got everything on your deal. I don't throw that stuff away. So everything you submitted to me is all those financials still the same? Yeah. Okay. Well, your options. The options I gave you six months ago. The options I gave you a year or two years ago. I'm probably the ones you still should take. And he wasn't willing to listen. He was so in love with this deal. He just couldn't let it go. Sam Wilson (00:14:57) - Mm hm. And it was a deal that should have just been let go, is what it sounds like. It was just a bad deal. Malcolm Turner (00:15:04) - It was. Well, it wasn't. Malcolm Turner (00:15:05) - I won't say it was a bad deal, per se. It wasn't a great deal for him. Right. And he ended up losing it. Someone else got it. And, you know, long story short, it was a deal that was probably like a million and a half. And I just saw it. It sold for like 5.20. Sam Wilson (00:15:22) - Wow. Malcolm Turner (00:15:23) - So, you know. But but if I you know, they always say, you know, there's there's more than one way to skin a cat. Sometimes there's only one. There really is only one. And if I say this is how you make it work and that's how you get it done and the guy doesn't want to do it was nothing I can do. I can only advise. Sam Wilson (00:15:40) - You can only advise. Let's talk a little bit about your financing, the UN bankable deal book. And again, you know, this kind of goes obviously hand in hand with bridge loans, things like that, that help get some of these deals across the across the finish line. Sam Wilson (00:15:56) - But what are un bankable deals and why? What's compelling about those that makes people even want to buy them? I mean, if banks are looking at it going way, way, way too much risk, kind of like you looking at it going, Hey. That's a that's a challenging deal. Like what? What's the motivation behind someone trying to get deals like that done And what's the what's the I mean, just give me some color behind that if you can. Malcolm Turner (00:16:21) - Sure, sure, sure. I mean, from my perspective, a good bankable deal has got some hair on it that scares the willies out of everybody else. So one, you're not going to have a lot of competition when it comes to negotiating the deal, because most people, I think, don't think it's possible. Right. To you know, like I said, it may have cash flow issues or occupancy issues. And the question becomes, does your team because I believe teamwork makes the dream work. Right? Does your commercial real estate team have a plan? To turn that property around. Malcolm Turner (00:16:59) - You know, sometimes that that property, that own banker will deal is a hotel that's failing miserably as it is a lot of hotels right now, Sam, that are in trouble. A lot of the biggest category of deals in foreclosure and forbearance. Our hotel deals. Okay. Sam Wilson (00:17:18) - It's not it's not office space. Malcolm Turner (00:17:21) - No, it's hotels. It's hotels. Sam Wilson (00:17:25) - Tough. Why? Malcolm Turner (00:17:26) - Because if I'm, um. Ford. Okay. And I'm leasing 50,000ft², and I've got a five year lease, right? I'm paying my bills. Right? Right. For may try to negotiate with the landlord, but I'm paying my bills. Yeah, okay. In a hotel, though, right? It's consumer based. So Right. So the consumers are like, Yeah, that area's not that hot anymore or we don't like that property anymore or it's not managed well. It can drop like a hat. You know? And so as an investor, though, sometimes we know in commercial it's about highest and best use. Right. Malcolm Turner (00:18:14) - So one of my examples in my book is about strategic repositioning. I had a client, she bought one of these, um, drive in like motel type places. You know, we're talking about, you know, the movies. You pull up to it, that's where everybody hides out and trying to hide from the FBI. You're on the lam. One of those type hotels. And she closed off the place. She put wrought iron fencing all around it. She made it senior only because seniors only need about that much square footage. Right. She took the wall out and the and the back of the unit in between. So she made two units. One one unit is like their living area and the other unit is a bedroom. Sure. Bedroom, private bath. Right. The other one was like a little living area with a kitchenette. Okay. She provided housekeeping for them. She provided meals for them three squares a day, all for all inclusive price of, like 2500 a month. Sam Wilson (00:19:15) - Wow. Sam Wilson (00:19:15) - Okay. Malcolm Turner (00:19:16) - The square footage was only 432ft². We? You know, that thing was cash flow and like crazy, right? Sam Wilson (00:19:30) - I'm sure it was. Malcolm Turner (00:19:32) - You know, And so she's like, let me do it again. And so that's where now if she goes to get a loan for multifamily. That's not going to work there. Look, this is a hotel, right? You're going to have to do some renovations to it. We don't know about your experience doing that, you know? How successful is it you're going to change the use? What about. But if somebody has a plan and they've got it worked out and she had a chef that would come in in the in the clubhouse of the of the place, he would cook meals for all the residents on a daily basis. It worked out. It cost her like $5 a meal. Wow. Right. The maid service, same thing. And the great thing about the maid service. They're all seniors, right? They're on fixed income. They loved the fact that meals, housekeeping, everything was included for her. Malcolm Turner (00:20:26) - She knew her property was going to get kept up because the maids going in there cleaning everybody stuff. And if somebody was having a rough time, if they were sick or they weren't doing well, the maid would know first. Sure. And say, Hey, Mrs. Johnson, And you know, Unit three B is struggling. You may want to call her adult children, have them come check on her. You know, So it was a way to better manage the property as a property manager because the maid was giving her all the gossip on what was going on with the place, you know, and every unit was maintained well, and she made a really good profit. Oh, and she gave them cable, right? Because she gave them like basic cable. And the only thing those tenants had to pay for was their own cell phone. Sam Wilson (00:21:08) - Wow. Malcolm Turner (00:21:09) - Wow. And that was not a bankable deal. But that was where, you know, and I believe she bought that property all in between the renovations and the purchase was like a mill one. Malcolm Turner (00:21:23) - And I think the value of our cash flow was something like 2.4. Wow. And then when I met her, she wanted to cash out, refi and then go buy her another one. Sure. And I was like, Absolutely. Sam Wilson (00:21:37) - Absolutely. Yeah. Because you got the model. I mean, that's it. And I think that's what I'm hearing you say here is anything that is outside of the ordinary, it's not maybe cash flow positive and or if it is cash flow positive, the value add plan has not yet been implemented. A heavy value add plan has not yet been implemented. So what you need are a couple of things. Tell me if I'm wrong, but you need someone with a skill set to implement the heavy value add plan. Yes. And then, you know, obviously, you know, that's really it. In the second part is to have that plan. So if you have those two things inside of a deal, maybe that non-traditional or the lender's traditional lenders won't look at, you need to go to the non-traditional route, which is through maybe somebody like yourself that helps specialize in that. Malcolm Turner (00:22:27) - Okay. And there's money for you know, there's money for all of that. And as lenders who aren't scared. Of a value add project. Right. They're not scared of even if it's like a straight, like obviously repositioned, but also just, you know, this is a property that maybe market rents are 1200 a month and the current rents are like 700, 800 bucks. The owner is like, you know, 82 years old. And he just didn't feel like putting everyone on a new lease. So the whole rent roll is month to month. You know, it's on the market and the bank is like, Yeah, yeah, we didn't want to do that. But if you've got a guy that's got, let's say, 4 or 5 properties already in the area, he's bringing in applications, right? Rental applications from those other properties. Okay. He knows I can fill up those 20 units easy, no time. You know, I know guys, they do self storage like that. They'll have a great location and they'll they'll have one property. Malcolm Turner (00:23:34) - That's the real big marketing property. It's on such a great corner that property is always filled and they use those extra locations to fill other self storage. They got like 5 or 6 other self-storage units that are not on great locations, so therefore they were cheaper. Sam Wilson (00:23:50) - Right. Malcolm Turner (00:23:51) - Right. And they use the one premier property, right? The trophy property to feed the applications and keep the occupancy high and the other self-storage properties that they have. Sam Wilson (00:24:02) - That's awesome. I love it. I love it. Malcolm, I've learned a lot from you here today. Learned about bridge lending. You learned about the times when it's a good application and a good opportunity to use that. Talking about your book Financing the Unbreakable Deal, we've talked a lot about the advantages of using bridge lending, convenient speed. The yeah, just went kind of through a lot of those details on that. I've learned a lot from you. Certainly appreciate you taking your time to come on the show today. If our listeners want to get in touch with you and learn more about you, what is the best way to do that? Malcolm Turner (00:24:33) - They can find us on YouTube. Malcolm Turner (00:24:36) - We have a YouTube channel, Castle Commercial capital. You can find us on YouTube. Our website is Castle Commercial Capital. I also have my book website, which is financing them. Bankable deal. They can learn more about the value that's in our book and if they want to book consultation, I offer this to all of your listeners there. They can have a free consultation for half an hour with me to discuss the deals that they're working on and future deals, because one of the best ways to be really effective with your financing and I put this in my book is to meet with your finance guy ahead of the deal and say, Hey, here's where financing is at, here's where it's going, here's the best deals to get done, and then go out in the marketplace and see which. And it's amazing. Sometimes I'll have a conversation with someone. And literally three days later, I found just the deal you were talking about. Really? Yeah. But it's like and I'll end with this, it's like getting a car, you know? I got a black Toyota Venza, XLE. Malcolm Turner (00:25:36) - Not a whole lot. I'm on the road. Most. We don't even know what that car is. I didn't know what it was. I fell in love with it when I saw it. Right now, I see them all the time. Every day. Right? Right. It's like once you get an eye. For certain types of deals. You see them. You know, I've got an eye for commercial real estate. You know, I personally like to buy single tenant leased properties that are vacant. So every time I'm driving down the street and I see an empty McDonald's or a former Baskin-Robbins or a close Starbucks, I'm like, ha ha ha. And then I'm reading What's the other tenants around that? And most people just drive by those places, right? Sam Wilson (00:26:15) - I love it. I love it. Malcolm, thank you for taking the time to come on the show today. We'll make sure we include the links to your book and to your website there as well. There in the show notes. Sam Wilson (00:26:25) - I certainly appreciate your insight and your time. Malcolm Turner (00:26:27) - Hey, thanks for having me on, Sam. I appreciate. It was fun. Sam Wilson (00:26:30) - Hey, thanks for listening to the How to Scale Commercial Real Estate podcast. If you can do me a favor and subscribe and leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, whatever platform it is you use to listen. If you can do that for us, that would be a fantastic help to the show. It helps us both attract new listeners as well as rank higher on those directories. So appreciate you listening. Thanks so much and hope to catch you on the next episode.
On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Senior Reporter Bill Conroy about loan repurchases by Fannie and Freddie and the challenges they create for lenders and borrowers.Related to this episode:Fannie and Freddie face dilemma in loan repurchasesHousingWire's YouTube ChannelEnjoy the episode!HousingWire Annual is where the community from across the housing ecosystem comes together to share strategies, drive business, discover new technologies, discuss best practices, and meet industry leaders. Our agenda is power packed with content to propel your company to the next level and connect you with the industry playmakers. Click here to learn more!The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team.
Today we are dropping a special mini-episode into your feed!Clayton Collins, HW Media CEO and host of our Housing News podcast, sat down with UMortgage's VP of Marketing and 2023 HW Marketing Leader Corie Meredith to talk all things HousingWire Annual. Corie is joining us in Austin for this year's HousingWire Annual for a pretty power-packed session focused on the future of marketing, along with Marc Davidson from 1000watt, Amory Wooden from Anywhere Brands, and Debbie McGriff from Freddie Mac. She gives us a little sneak peek of what great marketing insight she's bringing to the stage in October, including some interesting thoughts on the future of AI and automation in mortgage marketing.See you in Austin!Today, UMortgage VP of Marketing and HWA Speaker Corie Meredith joins us to talk about HousingWire Annual and what she's bringing to the table for the "Future of Marketing" session.Related to this episode:Connect with Corie on LinkedIn2023 HW Marketing Leader: Corie MeredithHWA AgendaHWA RegistrationHousingWire Annual is where the community from across the housing ecosystem comes together to share strategies, drive business, discover new technologies, discuss best practices and meet industry leaders. Our agenda is power-packed with content to propel your company to the next level and connect you with industry playmakers. Click here to learn more!The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team.
Today we are dropping a special mini-episode into your feed!Clayton sat down with UMortgage's VP of Marketing and 2023 HW Marketing Leader Corie Meredith to talk all things HousingWire Annual. Corie is joining us in Austin for this year's HousingWire Annual for a pretty power-packed session focused on the future of marketing, along with Marc Davidson from 1000watt, Amory Wooden from Anywhere Brands, and Debbie McGriff from Freddie Mac. She gives us a little sneak peek of what great marketing insight she's bringing to the stage in October, including some interesting thoughts on the future of AI and automation in mortgage marketing.See you in Austin!Related to this episode:Connect with Corie on LinkedIn2023 HW Marketing Leader: Corie MeredithHWA AgendaHWA RegistrationHousingWire Annual is where the community from across the housing ecosystem comes together to share strategies, drive business, discover new technologies, discuss best practices and meet industry leaders. Our agenda is power-packed with content to propel your company to the next level and connect you with industry playmakers. Click here to learn more!The Housing News podcast explores the most important topics happening in mortgage, real estate and fintech. Each week a new mortgage or real estate executive joins the show to add perspective to the top stories crossing HousingWire's news desk. Hosted by Clayton Collins and produced by the HW Media team.
Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-head of Asset-Liability Management at Freddie Mac, where he was responsible for managing one of the world's largest fixed income derivatives portfolios and trading desks. In this podcast we discuss w hy the Fed still needs to hike rates, the importance of US fiscal and industrial policy, understanding US housing, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Kim is as unstoppable as it gets. Born and raised in the Boston area she became very interested in entertainment. After a bit, someone convinced her to go into sales which she did and has been involved with ever since. For the past 20 years she has been a professional financial advisor. Nine years ago she decided to invoke both sides of her brain by starting her own production company, Miles In Heels productions. She is an event strategist which she will explain. Of course, since Kim was in sales we talk a lot this time about sales, what makes great sales people and how sales professionals can and should do more to relate to their customers. I'm not going to give everything away. I hope very much you enjoy and are inspired by our episode with Kim. About the Guest: Kim Miles (TEDx Speaker, Executive Producer & Event Strategist, Serial Connector & Shoe Collector) What do you call a successful businesswoman with a vibrant financial advisory practice, more than 30 years of sales experience, a background in performing, and a serious shoe habit? Kim Miles! Through her company, Miles in Heels Productions (milesinheels.com), Kim is a highly sought-after TEDx speaker, emcee, creative collaborator and event strategist who partners with her clients to deliver critical messaging to their key audiences in fresh, unexpected and entertaining ways. No matter the format, live or virtual, from ideation to execution, Miles in Heels Productions is the answer. When you need to think outside of the box and laugh while you're learning, look no further: if Oprah and Ellen had a love child, it would be Kim Miles. Kim creates mic-drop moments for her clients by using both the left and right sides of her brain, simultaneously. She brings her business acumen AND her creative lens to every problem-solving scenario. From securing A-list talent to comprehensive content creation by way of video production and copywriting, Kim's goal is to make sure each client is attracting its perfect audience. Kim has worked with the likes of comedians Fran Drescher, Judy Gold, and Jackie Fabulous to Broadway actors like Miguel Cervantes (Hamilton), to celebrity chefs such as Karen Akunowicz (Top Chef/James Beard Winner) to bring star power to her clients' events. Major clients include The Massachusetts Conference for Women, Babson College, Ropes & Gray, Worcester Women's Leadership Conference, Wellesley College, Winchester Hospital/Lahey Health, Women's Bar Association and Foundation of Massachusetts, Yankee Dental Congress, Foundation for Business Equity, League of Women Voters of Massachusetts, Goulston & Storrs Counsellors at Law, College of The Holy Cross, MassChallenge, Women in Technology International, Colwen Hotels, Regis College, Bryant University Women's Summit, MetroWest Conference for Women and many more. She's a member of The WIN Lab Coaching Circle at Babson College, the Innovation Women Speakers Bureau, and the GDA Speakers Bureau. Kim is widely known as a powerhouse problem solver, kick-a** content creator, and a hilarious humorist. When she's not working, Kim has been known to take off her signature heels only to hit the slopes or the golf course…that is when she's not singing with her band! Ways to connect with Kim: WEBSITE: www.milesinheels.com TEDx Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/kim_miles_surviving_the_big_c_conformity LINKEDIN: Kim Miles/Miles in Heels Productions: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kim-miles-00342294/ INSTAGRAM: @Kimmilesinheels: https://www.instagram.com/kimmilesinheels/ FB: Miles in Heels Productions/Kim Miles: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Miles-In-Heels-Productions/752242571474563 TWITTER: @KimMilesinHeels: https://twitter.com/kimmilesinheels YOUTUBE: Miles in Heels Productions: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTD-99e7kYl1byWqSMzQVkw?view_as=subscriber About the Host: Michael Hingson is a New York Times best-selling author, international lecturer, and Chief Vision Officer for accessiBe. Michael, blind since birth, survived the 9/11 attacks with the help of his guide dog Roselle. This story is the subject of his best-selling book, Thunder Dog. Michael gives over 100 presentations around the world each year speaking to influential groups such as Exxon Mobile, AT&T, Federal Express, Scripps College, Rutgers University, Children's Hospital, and the American Red Cross just to name a few. He is Ambassador for the National Braille Literacy Campaign for the National Federation of the Blind and also serves as Ambassador for the American Humane Association's 2012 Hero Dog Awards. https://michaelhingson.com https://www.facebook.com/michael.hingson.author.speaker/ https://twitter.com/mhingson https://www.youtube.com/user/mhingson https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelhingson/ accessiBe Links https://accessibe.com/ https://www.youtube.com/c/accessiBe https://www.linkedin.com/company/accessibe/mycompany/ https://www.facebook.com/accessibe/ Thanks for listening! Thanks so much for listening to our podcast! If you enjoyed this episode and think that others could benefit from listening, please share it using the social media buttons on this page. Do you have some feedback or questions about this episode? Leave a comment in the section below! Subscribe to the podcast If you would like to get automatic updates of new podcast episodes, you can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. You can also subscribe in your favorite podcast app. Leave us an Apple Podcasts review Ratings and reviews from our listeners are extremely valuable to us and greatly appreciated. They help our podcast rank higher on Apple Podcasts, which exposes our show to more awesome listeners like you. If you have a minute, please leave an honest review on Apple Podcasts. Transcription Notes **Michael Hingson ** 00:00 Access Cast and accessiBe Initiative presents Unstoppable Mindset. The podcast where inclusion, diversity and the unexpected meet. Hi, I'm Michael Hingson, Chief Vision Officer for accessiBe and the author of the number one New York Times bestselling book, Thunder dog, the story of a blind man, his guide dog and the triumph of trust. Thanks for joining me on my podcast as we explore our own blinding fears of inclusion unacceptance and our resistance to change. We will discover the idea that no matter the situation, or the people we encounter, our own fears, and prejudices often are our strongest barriers to moving forward. The unstoppable mindset podcast is sponsored by accessiBe, that's a c c e s s i capital B e. Visit www.accessibe.com to learn how you can make your website accessible for persons with disabilities. And to help make the internet fully inclusive by the year 2025. Glad you dropped by we're happy to meet you and to have you here with us. **Michael Hingson ** 01:21 Well, hi once again. And yes. And well. Hi there, too. You too. And hi to everyone listening. Welcome to unstoppable mindset. We're glad you're here. Today, we get to visit with Kim Miles. And Kim has a company with a very clever name. And I'm gonna let her tell you because I don't want to spoil it. And she has a lot of interesting stories to tell. She's a very creative individual by any standard. And I really am glad that you're going to spend some time with us today. So welcome aboard, Kim. **Kim Miles ** 01:52 No, I feel honored. Thank you. It was really so great to get to know you on our initial call. And it's just been fun learning about you and and accessiBe ever since. So I'm happy to be here. Thanks for having me. **Michael Hingson ** 02:05 Yeah, one of the things that we do for those who may not really have caught on over the last number of episodes is before we do a podcast, I love to get a chance to meet virtually in person, whoever is going to come on the podcast because it's great to get to know them and for them to get to know me and make sure we're all comfortable with the podcast, which is as you all know, a conversation. And so Kim and I connected and here we are. So I'm very glad you're here. And I expect that we will have fun today. I agree. I agree. And you are in Boston, and what's the temperature back there? **Kim Miles ** 02:41 We cannot seem to get out of our own way. We have literally we had the most glorious Memorial Day weekend, which we don't typically have. So that was a surprise. It was absolute perfection. And then ever since then we've really been it's been cold here. Everybody's been joking around that they put away their winter coats far too early. And so we are really hovering in the 50s and 60s here where we're trying desperately to warm up. So we were praying for warmer weather, but it'll come it'll come and then we'll be complaining. It's too hot. We're now trying England. We're never happy in New England. **Michael Hingson ** 03:13 You know, it's not just New England. I am fascinated when I listen to weather prognosticators like out here. When it's really hot, of course, we have greater chances of fires wildfires, right used to be called forest fires. But now Smokey Bear calls them wildfires, anyway, whatever. But the the issue is that when it's really hot, the whole Southern California area is much more susceptible to fires. And so now, we have also primarily had much cooler weather, it's going to get up to 72. Today, they say it's 67 outside right now and it's about 1135 in the morning. But the thing is that what people have been complaining about the weather people is the May gray in the June gloom. You know, they're complaining about that every single weather forecast I always hear about the May gray or the June Gloom is still with us. The Marine layers there, we're not getting the sun. But you are absolutely right. What's going to happen is once it starts to really heat up, then they're going to complain about it being too hot and the chance of fires. There's no pleasing them and they teach us all that which is unfortunate. **Kim Miles ** 04:29 Well, I don't know if you know the saying but if you live in New England and you don't like the weather, just wait a minute, it'll change. **Michael Hingson ** 04:36 I lived in with her for three years and spent a lot of time in the Boston area. So I understand, ya know, how **Kim Miles ** 04:42 do we know exactly. **Michael Hingson ** 04:44 New Englanders are very opinionated. I remember a couple of times. At the beginning of baseball season the Red Sox lost the first game of the season. And the immediate thing I started hearing from everyone is wait till next year. **Kim Miles ** 04:57 Well, here's what the old adage says As though the seasons are not one in April, but they are last in April. So if you don't have a strong start in April, you're likely doomed. Of course, crazier things have happened. But that is the old adage. And yeah, we were very spoiled here in Boston, I have to say I have a conversation with a friend of mine who lives out out west and, and he's always saying, Do you know do you know lucky you guys aren't you know, spoiled you guys are that you have a team in every sport to look forward to. And I realize we're spoiled. I understand that completely. But it's, you know, when you're a born and bred New Englander, you get used to it. And you know, we have high standards for sports teams, I suppose. **Michael Hingson ** 05:40 Or at least, or maybe lower high standards for fans. It's hard to say **Kim Miles ** 05:47 to Shay, **Michael Hingson ** 05:49 I remember when Steve Grogan was the quarterback for the Patriots. And people didn't like him. And they actually booed him off the field one game, which was, I thought a little bit amazing. I heard of that concept before, but never actually saw it. But of course, I also was back in Boston living there. When Michael Rooney ruzi. Oni and the Olympic team in 1981. Hockey against the Russians. **Kim Miles ** 06:15 Yes, that was yeah, that's if you've ever seen the movie. That movie is such an amazing, you know, a such an amazing movie. The story of it is it's one of the greats, it's one of the one of the sports greats. **Michael Hingson ** 06:27 Yeah, well, and by any standard it is, by any standard, any standard. That is it was great. And it was wonderful. And that was the year I think they also introduced first night in Boston. And he and I think some of the team made an appearance at a couple of the subway stations. So it was kind of fun. **Kim Miles ** 06:48 That's back in the day. That's what in the **Michael Hingson ** 06:51 day, right? Yeah, back in the day. Well, tell us a little bit about you, maybe the the younger kid growing up and all that. And let's see how we get to where we are now. **Kim Miles ** 07:01 Absolutely. Well, I think that that's always the question, right? How is it that you did get to where you are now it's always or you hope that it's an interesting story? I think in my case that it is **Michael Hingson ** 07:10 much, much, much less how not only how you get there, but where are you? No, that's okay, go ahead. **Kim Miles ** 07:15 Exactly. Well, you know, for me, I've always been a very, very creative kid, I was always a very creative person, I was always the one who gravitated toward theater and music, I've been singing my whole life. And I definitely, you know, have a huge appreciation for the arts, and sports, but definitely for the arts. And, you know, all through high school I sang with, you know, state choirs, and I was on stage with all my performances. And when I went and lived in Manhattan after I graduated, I joined a very large chorus there, which was a very renowned chorus in New York, it was a Greek Orthodox choir. And that was a beautiful, beautiful thing. And every step of my, I would say, of my life, there's always been something creative going on. So much so that I went to school specifically for television, radio and film production. That is, I went to Syracuse University at the Newhouse School of Communications. And I graduated with a television, radio and film production degree. And so for me, you know, my my final exams or putting together and producing television shows and writing scripts and producing CDs, I'm sure that there are a lot of younger people will be listening to this and not remembering what CDs are, but gotten deeper, the hot technology, you know, so those were my final exams. And when I, when I graduated, I drove straight to New York City from Syracuse, the same week, I graduated. And I was trying desperately to get a job in what for me felt was my goal, which was my ideal job. I because I loved sports and grew up so much with sports, I really wanted to do what, what I call sports package production. So if you ever watch any of the, you know, any of the championship games, or if you watch the Olympics, they always do human interest stories on the athletes, there's always a story behind the athlete. And so or story behind the team, right, or how the team got to where they are. So those packages that we call them, somebody has to produce those, somebody has to write the scripts and edit the footage and pick the music. And that was the stuff that I love to do. It's kind of funny now, if you think now, everybody has access to that on their iPhone, right? So in their own hand, they can edit a story, they can edit a reel on Instagram, they can make their own little movie on their phone, but back in the day, you know, that was something a bit more a bit more specific to the industry. And so that's what I really wanted to do. And that was back in in the 90s and And I, I had interviews at the NBA, I wanted to work at the NBA. And even back in the 90s, they didn't really hire a lot of women so. So I was a professional waitress for a while, until I got my big break. And I finally got a job with a couple of different commercial production companies. And some of their clients were Burger King, and Lancome. And so I watched these people make these commercials that you would see on TV. And then I got a job working for a management company, who was a manager for a lot of very famous comedians. And those comedians were very unhappy people, it was a very interesting job, because it was a very sort of, it kind of gave me an introduction to like the dark underbelly of the business. And I realized very quickly that that was not really for me. So a friend of mine, actually acknowledged something in me that I didn't see in myself. But she said, you know, Kim, you're such a people person. And you're great with people and people really respond to you, you really should try your hand at sales. And so I actually pivoted to a very, very long and lucrative career in technology sales in Manhattan. And I was doing that up until 911, which is something of course, you and I have in common. We've talked a lot about that. And, of course, your story is profound, and everybody has their story. And I work down there as well. And we've shared those stories. But it was time for me to go home after 911. And so I came back to Boston. And when I came back to Boston, I actually was trying to figure out what I wanted to do when I grew up. And so I was meeting with different people and having different cups of coffee. And my father came to me one day, and he said, you know, Kim, I think you should meet this gentleman that I just met, he was an accountant. And he now is a financial advisor, and he works for this life insurance company, I think you should have a cup of coffee with him. And I looked at my father and I said, Dad, I'm your only daughter due to me. I don't I don't know how it is that you want me to go sell life insurance. But here I am 20 years later, and I've been a very successful financial advisor for 20 years for the same company. And I love what I do. But that creative side of me, has always been with me and has always been the kind of thing where I, you know, wanted it to be a part of my life. And so nine years ago, I launched my production company, miles in hills productions. And that was really born out of something very specific, which was I was volunteering my time and my efforts for my local Chamber of Commerce. And I was doing all sorts of event production for them and raising them all sorts of money. And after doing that, for them on a volunteer basis for 10 years, I realized that I could put my own moniker on my talents and offer my talents and my services to lots of different organizations and companies. And so nine years ago, miles in heels was born. And so I run my two businesses side by side, which makes me a bit of a unicorn, using my right brain and my left brain on, on off on all facets. And so that's where, you know, the creative side, me gets to come in, and I get to play and do what I like to do through miles and hills productions. Cool. **Michael Hingson ** 13:27 Well, a question that I have, going back to what you talked about earlier regarding the whole concept of producing the information for athletes and so on. Do you produce those into they oftentimes just sit in the can waiting for someone to come along? Who needs them? Or usually just produce them when they're needed? **Kim Miles ** 13:55 Are you talking about me specifically what I produce for my clients? Are you talking about the people who work in the industry for the athletes? I'm thinking **Michael Hingson ** 14:01 in general does does a lot of that stuff get produced in advance? And then it sits until it's needed? Or do you? You anyone? **Kim Miles ** 14:09 No, I think that those are very specific asks, right, there's usually a very specific initiative that they're producing those four, I certainly know that in the case with my clients where we're producing a package for something very specific, we're trying to promote an an event or there's some sort of a milestone that they're trying to promote. But in the case of athletes, those are very much. Those are very timely, right, those things that are going on right in the moment. Right. So case in point right now we're in the NBA Finals, and you know, there are a lot of really wonderful human interest stories about how those two teams got there. As far as you know, Miami right now, those were they were the eighth seed, so they weren't really expected to do as well as they've done in the NBA Finals. They beat the Celtics. So, you know, number two seed, we weren't happy about that. The point is, is that they're they're definitely going out and they're producing packages that are timely and germane. to what's going on right now, for sure. Now, I **Michael Hingson ** 15:02 know in the case of obituaries, and so on, it's a little different animal, and I'm sure they do a lot of preparation. And if someone happens to pass, it's amazing how fast that gets up, they must have a lot of that already done and stored away and ready to **Kim Miles ** 15:15 technology today, what's amazing is how accessible footage is. Right? So think about the statisticians who are commenting during the game. So these commentators who are calling the game or you know, you're, you're listening to these people, they've got people feeding those stats, right? You're right. You know, it's amazing what technology can do, you can bring up that information and those stats at the drop of a hat. So be able to get that footage, it's just that those people who are in production, like myself, it's poring over that footage. And you know, that's the really sort of, that's the cumbersome part of it. It's like it's a labor of love, but you have to pour over that sort of information and that, that, that footage to get the right footage, and then string it all **Michael Hingson ** 15:59 together. And it's so much easier today, to do that and to edit it and to produce something that is we're seeing because our whole world of technology has made that a lot easier. I know, when I worked in radio, back in college, which goes back to the 70s when you wanted to edit something you cut and spliced tape, and I was never a great splicer. But now of course, with digital audio editors, it's amazing. **Kim Miles ** 16:30 Well, just again, back to my original point, which is I'm floored by what you can accomplish on your iPhone. I mean, it you know, you can master some significant editing on your iPhone, and they're always changing the technology up. So yeah, I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's definitely a lot easier to do. And the technology has come so so far. So but you know, creating those stories, I think that really, the editing has tons to do with it. The music that is chosen the vibe, the scripting, but it's the storytelling. Everybody loves to hear stories, that's what they relate to, and you more than anybody with your amazing book and your amazing story, you know, people gravitate towards storytelling, and that's what ends up resonating with them. And that's that that stories become long lasting for them. And it's the same in sports, it's same in the arts, it's the same anywhere. So **Michael Hingson ** 17:22 it is the same anywhere. And you know, any really good salesperson is all about telling stories. **Kim Miles ** 17:30 They're, they're about telling stories, and they're also about, you know, being really relatable. You know, for me, the reason why I have had such a wonderful career, both in technology sales and in the financial services industry, is not necessarily because I'm the smartest person in the room. It's because I know about relationship building, and relationship cementing and about relationship selling. And think about yourself as a consumer, right? If you are having an experience that you're not enjoying, how many times have you gone on to maybe work with somebody else, whether it's door or on the phone, or whatever. I mean, that's just sort of a fact of life. And I feel that when the relationship is cemented first, and that trust is built, and of course, you have to be smart. But I think that that's the foundation first. And then the the sort of the acumen comes almost second in a way. **Michael Hingson ** 18:24 And you also have to be honest and straightforward. And not mislead, especially when you're in sales, which all too often happens. The the best again, the best salespeople are people who are honest about what they have, what they do and what they can do, and not new for a particular customer. Well, it only **Kim Miles ** 18:43 takes one bad experience for somebody to be soured on something, right. So a lot of times people are so in my financial services practice, somebody will come to me and they'll say, you know, I haven't had the best experience with financial advisors in the past. And my job is to change that for them. I want them to have a good experience. I want them to feel good about the planning that they're doing for themselves, their businesses, their families. But it's the same thing. When I work with my clients with miles and hills productions. Let's say that they had a terrible experience running an event once and now they're hiring me to come in and help them run an event. I want that experience to change them. I want them to have a different experience altogether. And I want them to have a completely positive taste in their mouth. I don't want them to have a negative taste in their mouth. That's part of my job. You know, so I agree it only takes one bad apple to spoil the bunch. And fortunately, **Michael Hingson ** 19:30 it does and in and it only takes one mistake on the part of a salesperson to lose that relationship because we're so geared toward not necessarily trusting that it tends to be a challenge to **Kim Miles ** 19:46 Yeah, I mean, this is a tough time to live in. I mean, let's talk about the fact that there's a lot of mistrust that's being sort of spread and perpetuated. And while social media can be bought The blessing and a curse. Unfortunately, sometimes technology can work against us where, you know, sometimes misinformation is what is being put forth. And so it's getting harder and harder, especially with AI to discern what is accurate and truthful and real. And those can be some scary things. So, you know, in terms of something that I hold to the highest esteem is, is integrity, right, and honesty, and and, you know, I only have this one reputation. And so it means everything to me to make sure that I'm protecting it. And to make sure that, as my mother always said, if you if you always do the right thing, you never have to wonder if you did the right thing. I live by that so **Michael Hingson ** 20:46 well. And that makes perfect sense. If you always do the right thing, you never have to worry about doing the right thing, which makes a lot of sense. How did you come up with the name miles in heels productions? **Kim Miles ** 21:00 Well, you know, after having done so much work, like I said, on a volunteer basis for one particular organization. And when I wanted to put forth my own company and put my own stamp on things and really go out to other organizations, I needed something that was going to really encapsulate for me, what I'm all about what I'm known for, and really what I stand for. And so for me, I have a complete, as you can see right here, and those watching my little magic red shoe, I mean, I have a complete shoe obsession, I'm known for my shoes, they are my favorite accessory in the whole world. And so I really became synonymous with my shoe collection. And so the fact that my last name is Miles, thanks to my husband. You know, walking a mile in heels, is a great metaphor for life, and for women who are doing things outstanding every day, and sometimes having to try a little bit harder as a female. And so for me, miles in heels was it was actually the first name, I thought that it wasn't even hard, it was something that just kind of really came to me and putting my talents and skills in my offerings under the umbrella of a production company just made sense, because I do wear a lot of different hats for my clients when it comes to miles and hills productions. And so having that global umbrella of a production company just made sense for me, but miles in heels was just an obvious choice. And it was it came to me quickly, and it stuck. So **Michael Hingson ** 22:29 and it makes perfect sense. Especially the way you explain it. So what's the company logo? **Kim Miles ** 22:36 Well, the company logo is actually two high heeled shoes facing each other forming the shape of an M. So it's, it's trademarked. And it was one of the first things I did because I was not willing to part with that my genius brand strategists who's a dear dear friend of mine, she and I worked on the brand from day one. And she's the person who you know, has helped me bring my brand to life. And so yeah, my logo is very, very, very representative wholeheartedly and comprehensively of who I am and what my company is. **Michael Hingson ** 23:11 So you are still doing financial advising well, also operating miles in heels productions. **Kim Miles ** 23:18 Yeah, I have to tell you. So you know, my 20 years of being a financial advisor has given me incredible business acumen in order to be able to run my businesses. And you know, when you are a financial advisor, you really are running your own business. And so it was, I don't want to say it was easy to launch a second business, but I certainly knew what I was doing. And I've been very fortunate in the respect that I am somebody who's highly motivated, highly, highly organized, and definitely can, you know, wear both hats simultaneously, they complement each other really beautifully. And I feel very blessed that I'm able to fashion my day and my week and my month and my year, the way I need to to be able to accommodate both my businesses, and it's just been for the past nine years. It's been such a beautiful experience. And both of them, both of the businesses help each other. And I'm really proud to have been able to sustain my business for 20 years and launch new business at the same time. **Michael Hingson ** 24:16 When you're running the business, especially miles and hills productions. What are some of the most fun projects and the most fun things that you've done? And why are they kind of more fun to do than other things? **Kim Miles ** 24:30 That's a great question. I mean, for me, I get incredibly jazzed about first of all, I love I love connecting people, right? So my Twitter handle is serial connector and shoe collector. I really love bringing people together in a convivial atmosphere. I love connecting people I love mentoring people, lifting people up, helping people and collaborating with people. So one of my favorite things to do And it's certainly what I'm probably the most known for, is when organizations or companies are coming to me in two different elements, the first element they'll come to me with is, Can we've been running this event, this fundraiser, this gala, this banquet, this business conference, we've been running this for the past, you know, 1015 20 years. And it's been great. But we recognize that we need to evolve, we need to really add a little bit of life to, to this and have a new spin on it, we'd like you to come in and really resurrect this event. So I'd love to get in there, get my hands dirty, and everything from ideation to execution, in terms of concept, branding, a list talent, how we're going to market the event, how we're going to raise money for the event, all of that strategy I love. The second way a client will come to me is that they'll say that they have an idea for an event, but they don't know how to go about bringing it to fruition. And so again, getting in on that ground floor and bringing all my areas of expertise. I just really love when the end result is you got you know, 200 500,000 people in a room, and they're all coming together for a common purpose for a common gathering. And they leave better than when they came, right. That's my biggest reward. They come to that event. They say things like, that was the most special fundraiser I've been to that was the most fun, I met the best people. I felt great when I left I you know, moving people, and it's like storytelling, right? Having them leave and feel differently than when they came in or started. Is my goal as an event strategist. **Michael Hingson ** 26:39 Now you call yourself an event strategist? How is that different than event planning? as it were? **Kim Miles ** 26:45 Yeah, that's a great question. And it's one that I'm constantly explaining, because it's so critical. So I do call my cellphone event strategist and an executive producer. And the reason why that's different than an event planner, is because I actually have to hire event planners for my event. So event planners really usually focus on things like catering and lighting and linens and, you know, bartending services and things of that nature. For me. I'm really the event strategist and the executive producer event, I'm really talking about what is the messaging of this event? What is our goal with this event? Are we fundraising? How do we structure our sponsorship opportunities? How do what do you what do you want the messaging to be to your attendees? What kind of speakers are we going to get? What kind of ageless talent do we have to get? How do we get people to sign up for this event, and again, leave them feeling better than when they came. So I'm really digging in at a completely different level than an event planner. And as I said, at the top of the hour, you know, I'm a bit of a unicorn in this space, because people hire me for both my business acumen and my creative side, because both sides of my brain are working at the same time, all the time. And so I'm not just a creative, I'm paying attention to margins, I'm paying attention to strategy. I'm paying attention to branding and content creation for my clients. So there's a lot more that goes into it than, you know, simply making the room look pretty event planners are necessary and critical. I'm not at all dismissing or diminishing what they do, I need them. I need fantastic event planners to come into my event and help me create an amazing environment. So I hire event planners to come in as part of my event strategy to create the vibe that I need for my clients. **Michael Hingson ** 28:28 At the same time, you're as you said, or as Emeril Lagasse would say, kicking it up a notch. And you are, you are enhancing the event. And I'm sure that one of the most gratifying things for you is when someone comes up to you after an event and says we've never had an event like this here. Before. **Kim Miles ** 28:50 That we'll QUESTION I mean, unequivocally, you know, and I'm proud to say that at all of my events, somebody has always come up to me after factory scouting after the fact. And they've said, I saw you, you know, on stage, you were emceeing this event, or I noticed that you produce this event and I had such a good time at that event. We want to work with you for this event for the same kind of magic or when it comes to fundraising. I think one of the things I'm most proud of is that I can unequivocally say that for all the clients who hire me, even if they're paying me my fee, when it comes to fundraising, I am instilling practices and strategies for them where they are absolutely knocking their fundraising goals out of the park. And for a lot of my fundraising clients that I work with, we have consistently over the past nine years, raised more money each year from working with me than the year prior. And that's something I'm incredibly proud of, because the the causes that I work with are incredibly worthy. And fundraising means everything to them. It's how they keep their lights on. It's how they tell they help their clients. So for me, that's one of the biggest compliments. So Are **Michael Hingson ** 29:52 most of the events that you do with more not for profits doing fundraising do you do events for or work with corporations on internal meetings and so on that they might produce **Kim Miles ** 30:04 all of the above. It's not, it's not limited, it really isn't limited. You know, I love to come in when it's a business kickoff meeting. And, you know, case in point, I came into a law firm, sort of when we were just coming out of COVID, you know, just really coming out of COVID. And they really needed to get people excited about coming back into the office. And so we did an onsite for them. And it really got people more comfortable and more excited about coming back. But, you know, nonprofits and fundraising is an arena, that's very dear to my heart. For me, I have to be, I have to be excited, or the cause has to align with me as a person. You know, there have been clients who have approached me in the past and have wanted to hire me, but I knew in my gut that maybe it just wasn't the right fit or great fit. And so, you know, you politely decline. But for the most part, I just really enjoy being able to work on things that get me excited, or that I'm excited about the cause. Yeah. **Michael Hingson ** 31:06 How about doing virtual events? Have you done many of those? Or is that a, I assume it's somewhat of a different animal, because you're not necessarily doing the same kind of contact when everyone is in the room? But do you? Do you do many? Or have you done many virtual events? And how do those work out? **Kim Miles ** 31:22 I love this question, I have to say that when COVID hit and it was 2020, and we all pivoted to the world of virtual, I had one of my most banner years in 2020, because I had to scramble to learn about virtual production, like everybody else. But everybody else needed to hire somebody at the helm, to be able to continue to do their fundraising to continue to do their events, because the world didn't stop as we saw. And so we needed to move forward. And so I was hired by all sorts of organizations to pivot to help them with virtual events. And it was a skill that I took up very, very quickly. And I aligned myself with the right technology partners, which I'm, you know, I still work to, to this day. So I always say that, you know, my company specializes in event strategy and an executive production for live virtual and hybrid events, because still to this day, there are people who are still putting on hybrid components to their to their events. **Michael Hingson ** 32:19 Do you think that will continue? Or do you think if COVID doesn't come back, we're going to kind of forget about the whole concept of hybrid **Kim Miles ** 32:25 COVID is coming back, it's already back in China, it's on its way, there's no question about another wave. So I think COVID is something we're always going to live with. What I think has changed profoundly in the marketplace is that I think people are adjusting to the levels of productivity, of being able to do things in a hybrid fashion, and that companies are excited about the fact that they have a broader reach now that they have a virtual component that they can rely on so that they can reach more people to offer a hybrid offering. I don't think it's going away. I think that it sort of depends on what the mission and the goal is for that particular event or organization. So I think that it's not going away, will it be as prominent, perhaps not. But I think it's hard where we've gone, where the pendulum has swung that way. And you've given that offering, it's a little bit harder to go back the other way and to leave that offering off the table. Especially if you've expanded your audience, you don't want to alienate those people that you've you know, that you've opened your your world up to. **Michael Hingson ** 33:29 Yeah, I know, for me, as a speaker, I have a challenge with doing virtual events, although I love doing them. It certainly is convenient. But the challenge is that as I am speaking, I don't get some of the same input that I get when I'm in a room with a live audience. If I say something, and I've worked on speeches, so I know what typically to expect from an audience when I make a particular statement or lead them down a particular path to get to a particular place. And when I can hear those reactions, it helps and I don't get that information. When I do a virtual presentation. And I'm sure there are equivalents for people who can see the screens as well, you're not going to see the same stuff. But having done so many presentations live, I can pretty much tell by working with the people who are coordinating the event, I can get a pretty good idea of what the audience is going to be like. So doing a virtual event doesn't scare me or bother me at all. **Kim Miles ** 34:38 Well, it does a very interesting point. There is nothing that's ever going to replace the energy that you can feed off of being on stage and being in front of a live audience. And myself being a speaker like yourself and also being an at premiere emcee. There's nothing that's going to to replace that Right, I will tell you that one of my one of my favorite stories, and it was really, it was one of the most fun challenges and adventures. in the thick of COVID, one of my biggest clients, we had an alias comedian, who was the the guest of honor. And we were fundraising and I ran a live auction, over zoom, what wasn't zoom, it was another platform, but I was running a live auction to raise money. And there was a lag time between the time that the bids are coming in and between the time that I was seeing that, and so that challenge, like you're saying about that direct feedback, and that direct impact, it's a very real thing. For me when I'm emceeing an event, or if I'm speaking like yourself, the energy is a huge component. So the biggest thing for me that happened in COVID was, I was selected to do a TEDx talk, right when COVID hit, and so they pushed us off for a year. But as it turns out, I did my TEDx talk. However, unlike most TEDx talks, which are in front of a live audience, my TEDx talk was recorded in a studio. So I had a very unique and different TEDx experience. I wouldn't trade it for the world. But it was a very different experience, because I did not have the live audience feed and feel and energy like you're talking about, and it makes a difference. There's no question. **Michael Hingson ** 36:27 Well, it does make a difference. But it isn't necessarily a bad thing. **Kim Miles ** 36:30 No, no, I think it's, you have to learn how to adapt. If you're a business owner, you always have to learn how to adapt. And so in 2020, I learned how to adapt. And that's what I did. And now I'm proud to be able to say that I can offer people live virtual or hybrid events, and there's nothing we can't do for them. I've got the right technology partners, and I'm not fearful, you know, you have to learn how to adapt. And that's what you did. Yeah, **Michael Hingson ** 36:56 you know, for me not seeing the audience is not even relevant, because as we just discussed, if I'm doing a live presentation, I get to hear a lot and probably even, perhaps hear some things that someone looking at the audience might not see in the same way. But by the same token, like you, it's all about feeling the energy. And so when you're doing it, virtually, you don't feel the same kind of energy. But if you've done enough talks, you ought to be able to figure out how to do a speech and make it meaningful and just as relevant. And I think I've been pretty successful at that. And it's a lot of fun to do. **Kim Miles ** 37:40 You feel that your senses are heightened in terms of feeling that energy, because obviously, you know, you don't you don't see the audience, but you do feel that there's a there's like an even higher level of vibration of energy for you, especially, **Michael Hingson ** 37:54 only if I learned to, to look for it and and receive it, it isn't necessarily because of being blind, because that doesn't, in of itself, change senses. But as a speaker, you know, you know very well, what you do is you use all the skills that you have. And so for me, learning to pick up that energy, whatever it is, is very important. And I think that I probably pick up some different cues than you might, but we we both end up at the same place. Pretty much. **Kim Miles ** 38:31 Yeah. Which is what a great storyteller does, which is **Michael Hingson ** 38:35 exactly what a great storyteller does, I have had in my life. Two speeches that I thought didn't go very well. And both of them, as it turns out, although I didn't have enough information in advance about the audiences. And both of them were too small service clubs in my local area. So we didn't even get money for it. But that's okay. It was a it was a service. But as it turns out, in one case, most of the people couldn't even hear very well. They weren't Deaf people, they were seniors, but they seem not to be able to pick up on what was being said. And the other one was somewhat similar. It wasn't necessarily seniors, but I never did quite figure out what their priorities were. They wanted me to come in and talk about a couple of specific subjects, and I did, but they seem to be off in another world somewhere. But basically, that doesn't happen very often, which is of course, very helpful. **Kim Miles ** 39:37 I think your job or our job as speakers are and highly sought out speakers. And the reason why people hire us to speak is because we do have a good command on the audience. We're taking them on a journey and you know, if they've if they've seen you speak before or if somebody is recommending you that they've heard you speak before they walked away having felt something so that's why they're there. Going back to you is because they, they know you can kind of portray that energy. So, you know, it's just because people are great practitioners does not make them great speakers, you know, oh, yeah, yeah, I mean, you know, with my clients that the, they'll say, Okay, we want to have this person speak. And I'll say, Listen, we need to know that these people can capture the audience, it's very important just because they're brilliant. And they're the leader in their field does not necessarily make them either an entertaining or a great speaker. And that's a huge thing. That's something that's really important, especially when you're trying to put together a killer conference or killer business meeting. You got to you got to make sure that these people can get up there and hold the audience. **Michael Hingson ** 40:42 And the more you speak, the more you get to learn about different kinds of audiences. And so, in theory, if you really practice analyzing what you do, the better you will be at holding audiences even in new and unexpected ways and unexpected places. Indeed, yes, I remember, well, my late the last speech I gave, actually, technically, the second to the last speech, they were two days apart, was at the convention of Headstart, you know, for children, the National Head Start Association convention, and I was invited to come by somebody who would have become speak at a school district in Michigan when she was there. And then her husband invited me to come and speak, actually at Freddie Mac, as well. But then this, this came along, and she convinced people that I could probably hold the audience reasonably well, to be polite about it. I think she was much stronger in her words than that. But anyway, so we did the speech. There were 3000 people there. Wow. And some people would say, Aren't you scared of 3000? People? No, my largest speech was a bout a six minute presentation to a church service for 6000 people just after September 11. So 3000 didn't bother me. But anyway, what was really a great honor and pleasure for me was, we got a standing ovation at the end. Wow. Which was was a lot of fun. **Kim Miles ** 42:15 I think what you're saying is super important, right? There's different ways that people let you know, as a speaker, that you've that what you've said, has resonated with them. And, you know, I'm always moved, when I hear from somebody that I don't know at all that will find me that will reach out to me on my social channels, or they'll email me or I've had people even call me before and they say you don't know me, I caught your podcast, I was in the audience, I read your, you know, your post, whatever it is. And if I, you know, connect on that kind of a level that moves somebody that much for them to reach out to me, then you know, you've done your job, right. And it's the same thing when you're live and with the audience. So, listen, there's never going to be a substitute for live and in person. But I'm glad that we've got tools so that there are substitutes for being live and in person because we need them. **Michael Hingson ** 43:06 Yeah, well, it's like, there's nothing like going to see a Broadway musical or a Broadway play on Broadway. Exactly. There's nothing like that at all. The energy is so different. It's all live. It's not like a movie or anything like that. And it's so wonderful to have had the opportunity to experience a bunch of those just like seeing a live concert. There's nothing like it. It's not the same when you're watching it on TV. It's different. Agreed. Well, how many TEDx talks have you given just the one or two? **Kim Miles ** 43:42 I've given I've given the one. It was incredible experience. It was a very profound. It was a profound time in my life. And it was also a very profound, cathartic moment. For me. I think, writing that TED X Talk was something that was one of the scarier things I've ever done, because it's actually a great story. I was I was working, I was working with one of my clients. Babson College here in Boston, which is the number one entrepreneurial school, and I do a lot of work with Babson. And I was I was speaking in front of a group of women. And I was telling my story. And this woman in the audience raised her hand and she said, Have you ever thought about giving a TED talk? And I laughed sort of out loud? And I said, Oh, gosh, no, I would be I would be terrible at that. I said, I don't think that that's really my, my jam. And she said, Oh, that's too bad. She said, Because I run the I run the TEDx Babson program, and I think you'd be really amazing at it. And so I laughed and I immediately said, Well, what I meant to say was, I would love to talk to duck. And as it turns out, I'm so glad that I did something that scared the most scared me the most, you know, they always say try something every day or every year that scares you the most. And that scared me the most because I, I am a much more unscripted person, I am a much more off the cuff type of person. I've done stand up comedy before. As I mentioned, I'm a performer, I'm a singer. So for me, things that are a little bit more unscripted feels slightly more natural for me. So the fact that this was pretty rigid and very scripted, and you have to follow a process, etc. It kind of terrified me. But it was one of the most profound experiences of my life. And I loved it so much that I then started to work with the TEDx team at Babson and I wrote their speaker handbook for them. And I just like to give back to them because it was just a truly truly profound experience. For me, **Michael Hingson ** 45:47 I find my strong suit is when a talk isn't necessarily scripted, mainly, because when I go to different places, I like to get there before my talk, and maybe hear people before me and get to meet more of the audience. And the advantage of that is, I work stuff into the talk right up until, and even during the time that I speak, something will come into my brain that says this needs to be said, much less with the event planners have already in requested be included if there are any messaging things, and so on. But it's so much fun, because that's what the audience really is going to relate to. If you're just up there reading a speech, dude, I can relate. Yeah, no, **Kim Miles ** 46:33 listen, I am anti PowerPoint, I am anti cue cards, I am anti anything, I love to just be able to be off the cuff. And obviously I know enough of my stuff to be able to get there confidently and the talk but but the TEDx thing was something that was very unique. And like I said, I wasn't in front of a live audience where most people are for their talks, I would like to do it again, because I would like the experience of doing it in front of a live audience. So I would, I want to apply again to another TEDx talk. And I would like to have the full the full package experience. Next time, **Michael Hingson ** 47:08 I had a speech that I was scheduled to do, it was set up by a speaker's bureau. And they told me what the audience was, what the organization was, and all sorts of stuff, I got there only to find out that the speaker, Bureau representative had no clue. And it was totally different than what I had come expecting to do. Unfortunately, what this organization was about was also something else that I had experience with. So I had 15 minutes to change on the fly. And that's why I love to have the ability to be a lot more flexible, and it makes for a much better speech. **Kim Miles ** 47:41 Absolutely. **Michael Hingson ** 47:42 I agree. I agree. So it makes it a lot of fun. What's for you, what would you say, is one of the most unique factors that people encounter when they work with you. **Kim Miles ** 47:56 I mean, for me, you know it again, I'm definitely a unicorn in my industry because of my ability to use both sides of my brain simultaneously. My business acumen and my creative side, most people who are creatives are exactly that they're creatives, they're not great at the business acumen side, and vice versa. And for me, I'm incredibly strong in both areas. And I know that and that is what makes me special. So I know that that's a very unique factor when people work for me. But I think that the other thing that unequivocally goes along with working with me is my sense of humor and keeping things really fun and keeping things really enjoyable. The process is enjoyable, I mean, having a sense of humor and infusing my humor in things appropriately. Of course, the way that I work with my clients, you know, when they're having a good time, we all are having a good time, and there's success across the board. So it's definitely a combination of my business acumen and my creative, my creativity, and also just bringing my sense of humor, whether it be to the stage or to the content that I'm helping them create, or, you know, just making them feel more at ease about the process. **Michael Hingson ** 49:08 Yeah, having a sense of humor is really important. I've heard people say, as a professional speaker, you should start off with a joke. And, you know, I certainly find that there are times when having humor upfront actually helps break through to the audience, but there are ways to do it. **Kim Miles ** 49:30 There well you have to do it appropriately. I mean, you know, I I have a history in performance I have a background and performance I have I'm no stranger to a stranger does stranger to a sage doesn't bother me or scare me. I've done stand up comedy when I lived in New York and you know, I write the way that I sort of speak and talk and so but you have to do it. You have to do it appropriately. I mean there there are appropriate times for it. And then there are appropriate times for when you need to be He, you know, you're gonna read the room. That's what I say, gotta read, how to read the **Michael Hingson ** 50:04 bottom read the room. Absolutely. One of the favorite things that I like to start with, especially if there is any kind of a disabilities component, but even not necessarily with that I love to start by saying, want to do a little bit of market surveying. And I'll ask a few questions like, Do you know any blind people? And you know, any number of questions like that three or four questions. And one of three things happens, people, when I asked questions raised their hands, some people applauded, or most people applauded. And I have the person who introduced me stay up on the stage, so I can get that sense of it. But the last question, especially when I know that some people are raising their hands, the last question is, so do you really think it's a bright idea that when a blind speaker asks you a question that you respond by raising your hand, and it that has so often just drawn people in it's so much fun, because they know they're dealing with **Kim Miles ** 51:03 a person? Yeah, you break the ice that way that that's brilliant. I love that. **Michael Hingson ** 51:07 Yeah. And it's, it's a lot of fun to do. And again, my belief is I don't talk to an audience, I talk with an audience. **Kim Miles ** 51:18 One of my early taglines in my business was, it's a conversation, not a presentation. And I feel really strongly about that. I mean, everything that I do is, as I said, I really enjoyed trying to create convivial atmosphere is for my clients, and for myself and putting other people at ease. And, you know, it's, it's about the conversation, and it's about listening. It's about really, you know, engaging, and I agree with you, you're not talking at the audience, you're talking with them. I agree with you wholeheartedly. **Michael Hingson ** 51:49 And I love it, when there is a chance at the end of his speech doesn't always happen. But at the end of the speech, where we can have q&a. And of course, if there is time for q&a, is getting people to ask questions, because people tend to be so shy, and getting people to actually open up and ask questions. And even though I'll say there is absolutely no question in the world that's off limits. It still takes a while. And actually, I've got a favorite story about that, which is that I spoke talking about keeping an audience's attention. I spoke at a school in elementary school in San Francisco, K through six. And the teacher said, now you can only talk for about 10 or 15 minutes, you're not going to hold these kids attentions. And I said, okay, and 45 minutes later, I opened it up for questions. How are you not gonna want to listen to somebody who's standing up there talking to you with a dog? Right, man? So anyway, open it up for questions. And a young man, third grade, a guy, of course, gets up. And his question was, and this is why I tell the story, because I say no questions off limits. How do blind people have sex? **Kim Miles ** 53:03 In the third grade? Yep. God bless. **Michael Hingson ** 53:07 I know. And you know, so I said, Look, no CIA interrogator is going to be able to ask a tougher question than that. But my response immediately was, it just popped into my head the same way everyone else does. And if you want to know more, go ask your parents. I'm not done. **Kim Miles ** 53:22 That's a very good answer. Well played, well played. **Michael Hingson ** 53:28 Yeah. It's a lot of fun. And, you know, when I start to tell that kind of a story, people will start to open up and ask questions. And so it's, it's a lot of fun and interacting with an audience is always fun. Of course, after speaking, oftentimes, we'll go out into the lobby and sell thunder dog. And I've got my best sales rep with me, the dog, Alamo who's a black lab. So I'll take his harness off, tie him to one of the legs on the table where we're selling books. And he is out in front visiting with everybody. And of course, if they come to visit with him, then they have to buy a book anyway. And so he's a he's a great crowd drawer and a crowd pleaser by any standard. Everybody loves a dog, everybody, and you know what? He is discovered the law of maximum pet ability space. So he will lay down and stretch out every appendage as far as he can, in every direction to get as much interaction from people as possible, especially when it's kids. Smart boy. Oh, yeah. Most all of the guide dogs I've ever had have been very smart about doing that. But but they love it. And, you know, it makes him feel good that he gets to be a part of it and he gets a chance to relax and not be in the harness all the time. It's a level of trust, but it's really a lot of fun. Well, what's one thing you stand for in your life? **Kim Miles ** 54:53 I'd like to think that I stand for kindness. I think that I'm I'm sort of always amazed at how often kindness is forgotten or put last or ignored. And I think that in today's world, I think, personally, a lot of things could be dictated and solved, or heard a little bit more. Kindness was put toward the forefront of things. Yeah, I grew up in a very loving and kind home. And I care very deeply about family and friends. And I give back to my communities of people in organizations, I think, with kindness and integrity. And I don't know, I just, I think we've forgotten a little bit of kindness along the way. And I think that that's never lost on me. So I would, I would like to hope that I stand for kindness, I would like to help, **Michael Hingson ** 55:56 I would like to see us regain the art of conversation and listening and respecting other people's views. And of course, that's part of kindness also. But yeah, we just seem to forget all of that. **Kim Miles ** 56:12 I think we're just going through a weird shift, I think that there's there's a, there's sort of a perfect storm of things going on in our world between technology and, and, and the world itself, and, and economics and, you know, just sort of humanity itself. But here's where I get hopeful. As I mentioned before, I think that sometimes it can get a little scary, where social media can be so great and so harmful at the same time, every time I sort of kind of lose a little bit of hope, then I'll see something really promising on social media or on the news. And it just takes that one story about an act of a small act of kindness. Yeah, to kind of restore my faith, I've been the recipient of so many small acts of kindness that I really like to think that I, I love to put forth small acts of kindness, because you can really, you can change the trajectory of somebody's entire being with a small act of kindness. So I don't know, that's just always been really important to me. But it's always it's been taught to me by my by my family, my parents. So **Michael Hingson ** 57:28 I think we're best when we when we recognize that we're, we're here to serve others first. It isn't about me, it's about all of us. Well, I **Kim Miles ** 57:38 think it goes back to what my mother always said, if you do the right thing, you never have to wonder if you did the right thing. **Michael Hingson ** 57:43 So Right. We do have a moral compass, if we would only pay attention to it. **Kim Miles ** 57:48 Most of us do. I agree. I would say most of us do. Yes. What would **Michael Hingson ** 57:52 you advise for an entrepreneur starting out? Or what kind of advice do you have, that you would offer for, for people in business? Or just people in general? **Kim Miles ** 58:04 Well, without question, I mean, my biggest message to entrepreneurs, especially, but just people in general, your network is your net worth. I mean, I myself have built two very successful businesses, you know, absolutely on the merit and the cultivation, and the care that I've given to my network, and I, it's like a garden, right, I feed it, I tend it, I pay attention to it. And I listened to it. And, you know, when you give back to your network, you get a lot from your network. And so people have to really understand the power of their network and, and how to utilize their network the right way. I teach a curriculum on best practices in networking. And it's something that's a very popular curriculum that I get hired for, because I think that most people are inherently not great networkers. Back to one of your earlier points, I always talk about the fact that effective networking is, you know, 90% listening and 10% talking and I think people think it's the other way around. Yeah, and I'm not even talking about, like going to a networking event and sitting in a room and networking, I'm talking about how to look at your centers of influence in your internal network and using it for good for better to make a difference to make a change to propel yourself, to help yourself and to help others. So that for me would be my biggest message and to learn how to do that successfully, is I think the ticket to success. **Michael Hingson ** 59:37 So when you're not financially advising or producing what do you do to relax and have fun? **Kim Miles ** 59:44 Well, I sing with my band which is one of the most fun things that I do. I love my band. We have a blast we perform and and it's just one of my favorite outlets. I spend time with my nieces, which is a great joy for me. I don't have children. I have six nieces, and I golf, and I play pickleball. I am a huge pickleball fan. So I try to play pickleball anytime I can. **Michael Hingson ** 1:00:10 My nephew, since he is retired, has gotten into pickleball and plays several times a week. He's in a league, where he lives and is just always playing pickleball. And it's something I never even heard of two years ago. **Kim Miles ** 1:00:25 It's there's a reason it's the fastest growing sport in the world. It's it's so much fun. It's so easy. And it's super social. And so I have become a bit by the pickleball bug in between that and golf. I keep myself very busy in the summertime. **Michael Hingson **
The CONVERSATION conducts a post mortem on comments by Fed Reserve Chairman, JEROME POWELL, in his speech last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “There is this belief that he [Powell] doesn't believe in what he says,” says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. But he warns: “The market should not ignore him. Inflation is not beaten.” POWELL also seemed to telegraph that the course of interest rates would be “data dependent,” according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. (Case in point: US job openings dropped in July by more than analysts had expected to a more than two-year low, providing new evidence for rate-setters that demand for workers is cooling.) Either way, rising interest rates have negatively impacted US housing on several fronts. With the average 30-year fixed mortgage reaching its highest rate since 2001, home affordability and cost of ownership are pinching many buyers' finances. DICK BOVE, once again, sounds the alarm for the real possibility of a housing crisis. Still, there's a solution for the impaired financial mechanism setting up the housing market for potential collapse, according to BOVE. Private capital would be unleashed, and more affordable homeownership would be within buyers reach if housing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are taken out of conservatorship, he says. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at the latest stresses on banks from capital to the retention of customer deposits. On the global scene, China's economy remains deeply challenged while Germany's is shrinking. “[Global] debt got us to where we are now, and debt won't be able to take us out,” says BOVE. Joining the CONVERSATION is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com
INTEREST RATESMortgage interest rates are still elevated, around 7%. But Dale says what's unusual here is that typically when inflation drops, rates drop along with it because the bond market, which drives interest rates on mortgages, generally responds favorably. That has not been the case for the last couple of months. And that's due to some other factors. For one, the Fitch downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating was a big deal that really held back rates. But Dale adds that a number of signs point to 2024 being a much better year in terms of interest rates.Doug Duncan, the chief economist for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, really believes — and so to the other experts — that we're going to be in the mid-fives to probably low sixes and 2024 in terms of interest rate percentages. It could even hit the low fives. HOME VALUESDale notes that in the first half of this year, we actually saw a 10% increase from January through the end of May. But listing prices are starting to drop on properties, and that is always the leading indicator for values. In June, we saw the lowest increase in 11 years, it was only 1.6% annualized. So we're probably going to be looking at a 6% total appreciation by the end of this year. Some markets may even see decreases in property value, but we very likely won't see significant declines anywhere. IS NOW THE TIME TO BUY? Believe it or not, this may be a great time to buy.Dale explains that most people think there's no way this is a good time to buy, but that has helped to lessen the buyer competition in the housing market. If you wait until rates go down, what's going to happen is that many buyers will come back into the market, and it's going to be hard to find a house amid another round of bidding wars. And that has helped to moderate home values somewhat, which puts buyers in a stronger bargaining position. One of the things that we've seen this year is over 40% of sales have included seller concessions. So you can get that now, which certainly wasn't the case not all that long ago. And there are huge tax advantages right now because of the rates, which actually offset some of your payments. When you look at the tax benefits on the backside, add all of those things up, and you might be better off buying now and perhaps refinancing when rates drop.Learn more about Dale Vermillion at DaleVermillion.com. On today's program, Rob also answers listener questions: Are you required at a certain point to transfer a CD into another IRA CD? Are there good, safe alternatives to banks for where to keep your money? How do you begin to secure your financial future after a divorce? Do you need a living trust in order to avoid probate? How should you think and pray through the process of deciding how to divide your inheritance in your will? RESOURCES MENTIONED:Splitting Heirs Remember, you can call in to ask your questions most days at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on the Moody Radio Network as well as American Family Radio. Visit our website at FaithFi.comwhere you can join the FaithFi Community, and give as we expand our outreach.
Market Proof Marketing · Ep 299: One Stop ShopIn this episode, Kevin Oakly, Beth Russell and Julie Jarnagin marvel that they're only one episode away from episode 300! They discuss Zillows new "Super App" which promises to be the one-stop shop for everything by cutting out the middleman and how the one group that will struggle with the change is realtors. Together, they celebrate kids going back to school and discuss the difference between highlighting scarcity and creating artificial scarcity.Story Time (04:45)Julie says she gave her son “bad parenting advice” by telling him he doesn't need to do his best in school…other than math.Kevin helped a builder problem solve: 6 leads to 54 (18 walk-ins + 36 online leads) Beth has another house update: their house is nearing completion and have a closing date of Sept. 5th!Kevin says AI is not going to solve your “people problem” or make them adapt to change.News (21:38)Zillow Group to acquire Spruce, a tech-enabled title and escrow company, as a building block in the housing super app (https://www.zillowgroup.com/news/zillow-group-to-acquire-spruce/)Real estate agents grapple with cyberattack on Rapattoni (https://www.housingwire.com/articles/real-estate-agents-grapple-with-cyberattack-on-rapattoni/)Strained housing affordability is a ‘manufactured crisis' created by bad zoning—just look at L.A. (https://fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/fortune.com/2023/08/13/los-angeles-housing-affordability-manufactured-crisis-through-oning/amp/)Self-driving cars were supposed to take over the road. What happened? (https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/business/self-driving-industry-ctrp/index.html)Favorites/Hates (55:03)Julie is propagating her house plants.Beth hates when one person can taint an organization, that one friend or family member who can taint a room.Kevin's favorite is his peek design wallet.Questions? Comments? Email email@example.com or call 404-369-2595 and we'll address them on the next episode. More insights, discussions, and opportunities can be found at Do You Convert All Access or on the Market Proof Marketing Facebook group.Subscribe on iTunesFollow on SpotifyListen On StitcherA weekly new home marketing podcast for home builders and developers. Each week Kevin Oakley, Andrew Peek, Jackie Lipinski, Julie Jarnagin, and other team members from Do You Convert will break down the headlines, share best practices and stories from the front line, and perform a deep dive on a relevant marketing topic. We're here to help you – not to sell you!Transcript: KevinWelcome to episode 297. I'm Kevin Oakley. And with me today is Julie Jarnagin and Andrew Peek, because Beth Russell went full on Miley Cyrus with her voice today. I didn't know thats a thing.AndrewAnd?KevinWe were conversing this morning. And I was like, huh, You're talking about you've gone for Miley Cyrus and she's like, Sorry, that was a mom joke, which I didn't realize mom jokes were a thing. So I just was happy that we have equal opportunity bashing adult jokes.AndrewI, I support it. Yeah. Miley has a pretty low voice, little boy raspy. It's not that. Well.JulieHer kid has been sick and so apparently it got passed down.AndrewIt's this is the beginning. Schools just started. So.JulieYeah, that's true. That's true. It's going to hit all of us.AndrewIt will only get worse.KevinNo one else in my family got an apology covered. That was shocking.JulieGood.AndrewGood.KevinTotally. Totally in the clear. All right, story time. Who's going first?JulieI can go.AndrewOh your first.JulieMine is kind of. Kind of random. So just randomly in my email, I got an email, like a marketing email from Hidden Valley Ranch. I was like, How in the world did I end up on this list? Is it a really, really old list I was on from like, maybe I got a recipe or maybe they sold it.JulieSomebody? I don't know. I just thought it was funny that I got it because I was like, That's random. Then I woke up the next morning. I had two from them overnight, so that was my third. Then within the span of like less than 48 hours, I had six different marketing emails from Hidden Valley Ranch, and I would try to and I would try to unsubscribe and I would keep getting them.JulieAnd so finally I just had to hit the like, this is spam button in my email, you know, quit sending them to me because it's just a reminder, not that you're Hidden Valley Ranch, but don't if you have a list and you haven't sent any emails and you just start spamming, don't do that. You need to send emails consistently on some kind of normal basis so people are expecting them.JulieAnd don't just send six in a day about Hidden Valley Ranch because.AndrewIt's like they're it's like a marketing automation just exploding.JulieCrazy.AndrewThe more, you know, thank me. What could they even promote? Like, do you get like a 36 pack of of all these.KevinOh no they they cross promote using recipes like sour cream or something. Yeah. Like you know you can ads you can add a ranch packet to sour cream and make them.JulieIt was a lot of recipes, I think. So I don't know how I ended up on it, but they were aggressive fun.KevinIs there a preferred email cadence like as well? I got this email today from someone said, Hey, my onsite team doesn't ever want marketing to send emails because they said, We don't want to overwhelm our customers with too much communication when it comes to too from marketing, what do what do we think?JulieI personally, I say twice a month from from marketing, maybe once a month. If you can't do two good once a month, do one good one a month, and probably no more than two a month. That's me. You all may have a different.KevinNumber two is my cap from marketing.AndrewLike and I like that I gave props to Opendoor a while ago where they gave a lot of value in their email. They're like, your new offer. Your new offer. I think it's every three weeks and it's there's value in there. They probably see that I open it. And so that's why they're giving me maybe I have an accelerated cadence compared to someone else.AndrewYeah, I think twice. And then maybe some type of like trigger that helps you slow down that cadence. Like, okay, now they're a purchased let's not give them all of the marketing emails, maybe they switch different list whatever maybe. But I think we all agree lean on less versus more from marketing.JulieWell, less as long as it's not non or randomly have a new just when we think that everybody needs some, I feel like it needs some kind of plan and strategy around it instead of when we get to it, because that usually means never until we're panicking. And then people get it and they're like, Wait, who is this?JulieWhat is this? If you do have a cadence, they at least are used to seeing you pop up in their inbox and it's not so insulting. I don't know if it's things are awkward, but with Hidden Valley Ranch Spammy.AndrewYeah.KevinYeah. It's one of those areas that as an industry we still don't use data properly, I think, to clearly find like, you know, from the time something becomes a lead to the time they decide to go on an appointment, I would argue that you you could if you to your point, if you had the great content, Julie, if you had, let's say, 15 amazing in-depth articles, slash blogs with photo galleries and or videos or virtual walkthroughs, about 15 different stories of customers who chose your homes and love them.KevinI think you could send one of those a month if they're good enough or sorry, one of those a week if they're good enough over 15 weeks. But the signal of once they once you go to an appointment, you're kind of transitioned to another phase. And while it might still be interesting to get those, you might then have to do the work of saying where are the best three that they haven't already seen and spacing them out more because there's now it's it's still going to be interesting just like people love watching issue TV even though they already know where they're going to move or you know, they just bought something.KevinThey still want to, but they don't need to be deluged with it in the same way. And of course, all those ideally would have the signal of go here in view more if you want, let the customer binge them, but then know not to send them because they've already seen them in an ideal world.AndrewSo maybe.KevinI'll write. Mine comes from a call early this week because I feel like this is happening a lot, not just with the builders that we work with, but but around the country where traffic is still high. In fact, the aggregate data set from homebuilder data, it's about the same as where it was in February, March in terms of traffic to homebuilder websites, lead volume depending on the price point an area some some places are down.KevinBut if you look at year over year, most people are still up tens. And so you're talking about a struggling neighborhood. And this last month in June, they had six leads in there. So this particular better uses lasso. When you use lasso and you're analyzing lead volume, a reminder that you typically have to go look in two places.KevinYou have to go look into the individual community project. And that's going to let you see all of the online leads that have transitioned to on site through an appointment as well as walk in traffic. And then you're going have to go to the online sales bucket project and look at the leads that have come in just for that neighbor.KevinThen you have to add the two together. So we started out looking in the project folder. First thing was that no one on the call immediately kind of already had their finger on the pulse of what the lead volume was for the community, which is marketers. We should always, especially the ones that are high focus, like this is a neighborhood that I taken over the call from Jacqui, the Penske issue on maternity leave, but they're like, Oh yeah, we talk about this one like every time.KevinSo cool, so many leads that we have. Last month. It's okay. Like, you know, they didn't know it, but we looked it up and they had 38 leads in the onsite project. And I was like, okay, cool. Well, we looked at where the lead sources were coming from, both in terms of like just phone call form submission as well as actual marketing source.KevinAnd then we go to June and there were six. It's like, Wow, that's a statistically significant difference. Like something changed what happened? And we go through the list and you want to guess what changed? Actually, I'm going to make a guess. You probably don't want to because you're like, I don't know, but.AndrewWhat's the number.KevinOf 6 to 38 leads just in the onsite project? What do you think.AndrewSix up to 38.JulieMM Oh, they increased more finished quick movements listed or I.KevinGuess.AndrewI think they just added them. They were there before that at everybody their close like they register them like, like they're like this. They had the same number. Maybe the number didn't change but they just decided like, well everyone's looking at me, I'm in the hot seat. I better add something in here.KevinWhich. Okay, so that's your final clue. For those of you playing at home, when leads start being put in the system by onsite agents, after there has been five or six months of intense scrutiny of said onsite agents, what's happened is there is a new one. There is a new onsite agent who doesn't know the game to be played and silly, silly salesperson.KevinYou're putting all of your walk in leads in the system. They don't know better. It's like I always go back to when I first started playing golf. It was the best golf I've ever played in my life, in my life, because I was just playing. I wasn't overthinking it. And then you start overthinking it. You start doing all these adjustments that are wrong.KevinTypically when you're new, you start playing worse, you get in your head. And so new salesperson now in the online bucket, we went back and there were 36 online leads for July for this neighborhood. And and so then we went back to the onsite project and just ran only the walk ins and there was eight of them. And then I'm really bad at Mass.KevinIt took me about 45 seconds to figure out that the total lead count for this struggling neighborhood was 54 in a 30 day period.JulieWow. Well.KevinThe one thing I always like to remind everyone is the way that we approach marketing and advertising and do you convert means that we don't have to consider at all unless our builder partner has chosen to do something that we don't recommend. We never have to wonder to ourselves. I wonder if those 54 people are interested or qualified in any sense of the word.KevinWhy don't we have to do that? And again, this is a really big deal because every ad we ever run talks about the location, price point and type of products that you are selling. So when those leads come across, they're not just like, you know, trying to collect a $50 scratch off ticket by entering in their contact information or entering to win a car or whatever the like.KevinSo to bring it all back down to the now that I've told you that journey, it was just like, wow, we don't have a struggling community from an advertising problem. We don't have a struggling community from a lead problem. What we have is an appointment to sale conversion challenge and with 54 people in a 30 day period, someone needs to give the sales team permission to screw it up.KevinAnd what I mean by that is just start getting sales. You know, they were like, Well, this is a hiring neighborhood. And we always get the feedback that a lot of customers are concerned about selling their existing home. I go make up and make up an existing home sale package incentive. Hey, no problem. What will we'll create? What is that?KevinMake it up. Just say, Well, will partner with three agents that we know are great agents and they're they've promised to do an enhanced listing package on any referral that we send over so you can pick any of those three agents. And then as the builder, you might have to pay an extra couple hundred bucks to them to make sure you get the best photographer that they typically would use an on site or do a little bit more advertising, whatever it is.KevinBut just say, yeah, we're just putting together the finishing touches of our list. Your home VIP experience. Let's just sign contingent upon using the details of that program and feeling comfortable selling your house or whatever. But something there's too much like, yeah, it's price. Yeah, but it and I think I talked about this last time so I'm not going to go into it but that builder that had a 6% performance sell ratio really changed some things around and got to a 20% that 11 sales to 51 sales.AndrewThat's a lot of.KevinNew cumulative leads for that incentive for people that are already in their system. And I was on a call with Jesse Suggs, online sales coach for another builder this morning. She did analysis for a builder and something like 80% of their sales were to people who had been in the system for over three months. All of the friction that's preventing sales is coming from the middle and the bottom of the funnel right now.KevinAnd that's likely to continue through the end of the year. And so just wake up, smell the coffee smell and then start adjusting accordingly because you're not. I have not. Maybe one of you two have. I haven't seen any promotion that anyone has done. 80 different builders, almost every state in the country over the last three months. That has significantly increased their lead volume.KevinAnd again, the only aspects there would be qualified leads, not just leads that are from performance max campaigns and mostly spam.AndrewDon't do that.KevinYou're not you're not going to convince anyone that today is the first day that they should start thinking about buying a house or moving.AndrewNo. And we'll we definitely have some news lined up to really support that.KevinLet's just jump into that one. Oh, we got it. So from a Business insider, over 80% of Americans think it's a bad time to buy a house, which coincidentally also means that the majority of Americans also think it's a bad time to sell a house. So sellers are also buyers and so they don't want to sell if they think it's a bad time to buy because most of them are going to have to buy.KevinSo 82% think it's a bad time to buy a new home. Affordability has plunged. So unless there is a reason to move, like even this goes back to I mean, you're someone text me this right now and I'm just I'm overdoing this point because it is so important. For the second half of this year, someone said, hey, what's your thoughts about success and failures around special inventory events, i.e. showcase of homes, liquidation event, year end sales, event, everything must go, etc. It's like, well, let's not call it everything must go or liquidation sale.KevinBut even in a good market, doing that consistently once a year and then at Heartland, we just that was the only incentive we did all year. Everything else was adjusting pricing to market. But every year we did basically a December to remember sales event. It was the only sales event of the year and that trick will work once.KevinSo I was just saying, you know, maybe end of summer and fall is a better time to get your stuff sold before the end of the year when everyone else is panicking. I kind of I don't mind that, but I said, Hey, just remember 70% of the buyers are probably already in the system. So it's communicating to those people you already know.KevinAnd they said back, we were thinking of doing this event for 75 to 90 days. What's your reaction to that?AndrewI I'm trying to figure out what I want to say out loud, but it feels like it's not a real event. Then it's garbage. Like it like I'm I view it negatively. Like it's not a real deal. It's just a fake promotion.KevinIt's too long. I feel like it's too long, especially knowing that the majority of people who will take advantage of that opportunity will be people they already know. So I said, Hey, probably doesn't need to be that long, you know, just heads up and said, Well, I think we're going to have to do longer because we don't do well.KevinFostering leads long term too, which I just wanted to say that's, that's an unacceptable.AndrewThat I misunderstand that they need it longer because they're not good at fostering leads.KevinBecause they think that, yeah, they're not good at nurturing leads longer term.AndrewOkay?KevinAnd so they feel like the salesman has to go for 90 days so that new leads can come in, have time to absorb the opportunity.AndrewEtc.. So they lose people after that when they're all leads aren't useful anymore, right? And you're like, No, no, no, that's your mortgage sitting there. You have your revenue.KevinEver been right now?AndrewYeah. Yeah. Interesting.KevinYeah. Back to the article. I kind of like merging story time. Article time.AndrewYeah, that's one's perfect. Unplanned. So that's fun.KevinThe average 30 year fixed mortgage rate has risen from under 5% to nearly 7%, according to Freddie Mac. With the Federal Reserve's most aggressive interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. I was born in 81, so the it's been a while and everyone's still kind of pessimistic now. But that doesn't mean that but that does mean by default the people who have to are more urgent.AndrewRight?JulieYeah, they have to. And I think it's such a good opportunity to just agree with them. But yeah, it is a terrible time to buy an existing house like. Yes, absolutely. You are completely right. It is a terrible time to buy an existing house. It's a great time to buy a new house because look at this great thing.JulieWe can do to help you and look how our how they hold their value. And it just is a good opener to a conversation to talk through these things. So I don't think you're ever going to convince all these people that, oh, 80% of people are wrong. You know, everybody because they.KevinThink about the think about the psychology here of you think it's a bad time to buy and you see an ad that a builder runs that says 50, 75 grand off if you buy by the other month. I think I think your negativity bias is like, see, I told you it's bad time to buy. You don't think you're so much money.AndrewYeah, I.KevinWasn't going to buy, but now I can save 75 grant like again. It doesn't mean it doesn't work, but it doesn't work for the reason we tell ourselves. It works. When someone buys something that's on sale, that's because that's what they believe it's actually worth. Or they believe that there's some that like it's not the savings we justify that we tell our spouse, Hey, don't get mad at me.KevinI just saved us $100. But in our minds, we knew that that's not what we did.AndrewYeah, that's what it should be paid. I can see that reaction being like, oh, desperation. It's still overpriced. This as far as like if you're being kind of indoctrinated with like these articles like this where like 80% say it's bad time to buy, your reaction is to be correct with the rest of society. And so you're like, Well, I'll go along with that.AndrewI feel like they'll make me look smart. And like you said, Julie, like, well, the builders are the ones offering like these great incentives 5.25, five and a half, 4%, whatever. Like that's different than 7%, significantly different. So.KevinWell, and the other thing that's interesting about interest rates. Barbara Corcoran, you all know her from Shark Tank. Well, she's kind of got a thing that's going viral around the the U.S home industry right now because she's like everyone. You've got to buy a house now that rates are at 7% because when rates go down, the prices are going to go up.KevinSo what she's correlating to and it's not a crazy thought at all, is when rates were at four and a half and they went down to three. It took it took too long for most builders to figure this out. But builders are like, wait a minute, I can you know, I still remember people were like, how much should we raise prices by Kevin?KevinI mean, they just keep selling. What should we raise? And so I go, Just do the math of exactly what is the same payment and you can go there. Now it's the affordability around payment. You can just go to that price. You have to look at your cost, just go to that price. And so her argument is if you buy now and take that pain, you'll be better off because the rates go down, the prices of everything will go higher.KevinThat's not a guarantee, by the way, because if rates go down, it still means that there's bad things going on in the economy and the job market. It's earned.AndrewBut it's, I think to say kind of rudely my brain like that's like privilege problems, right? Like she's like I have X amount a bank account like I'm I'll deal with this and two years I'm out of the situation. But if you're stuck at 7% forever, you can't refi. Your financial situation doesn't change or drastically go up. Then you're kind of you could be stuck.AndrewSo for normal people, maybe not. But I, I definitely understand what she's what she's saying there. What's interesting is do we know anyone This is going way back. Remember Daw d0r the.KevinYork tracking the infrared tracking tool?AndrewYeah, I remember. They weren't that expensive to implement. And then, like, as we kind of got used to that and I'm not sure if there's any builders still using it, but there's a recommendation like put it, don't put it at the front door. But like in the primary bathroom or something or whatever, it'd be like, okay, real people and the model home will definitely go here versus someone going in and out, in and out deliveries, mail, etc., etc..AndrewInteresting. Having that data to kind of normalize like the salesperson. This is back to the first part of your story. Like leads went up. Now it's just a new you'll see a new sales agent on site. It's like, well, we've had 300 people come in, 200 people, a hundred people, whatever it is, that person has six, six. So that just kind of like normalize the data.AndrewBe interesting. So my little story is just like maybe it's it'll make you feel comfortable. J4 is still quirky. I don't, I don't like it. I don't get it. I was just on a call about an hour and a half ago. Really intelligent guy is like, Hey, we're seeing this like what is happening? And I'm sitting there like, Man, I wish I could be super smart right now and have the answer to this.AndrewI'm like, I have no idea. Like, let me just rebuild that report for you and maybe that will fix it. Like, I do not know, like essentially it was only charting one campaign, but the other campaigns were down here. The numbers were making sense. The ad and like, you know, everyone has the delay of the data. It seems like 24, 36, 48 hours.AndrewThere seems to be a little bit longer than that. It's a lot of fun and they have a lot of data. So it's not like we've seen some where like at the sampling a smaller is could be goofy, but it just seems to be inconsistent all over the place and it's not much fun. Thank you. Google it's not fun at all.KevinYeah it's well and the inconsistencies fortunately are not. It'd be one thing if it was just Google but it's implementation still up for on some web environments that you know it's yeah and that's where you can't I mean you will because you're human you'll get mad at the web developer but it's it's multiple web developers that are having this issue it's not just one.KevinAnd sometimes it's for a bit of code that really should have nothing to do with causing any interference with GFR. So I feel like I use this a lot. But you know, WordPress is a great format for a blog, but trying to build a website with WordPress, in fact, again, just this morning talked with a large organization, multistate organization that still uses WordPress for their and we were talking about they are having a spam issue.KevinAnd I said, well, a lot of times WordPress is something that doesn't help that and they're like, Oh really? Why go? Because you don't often update WordPress as often as you should when you've got 20 different plug ins that are connected to that. Yeah. So then we'll potentially break when you update it. Like, yeah, we're on a really old version.KevinI go, Yeah, you're going to get spammed.AndrewIt's been hacked.KevinSo it's that same kind of issue though that WordPress has where you're using the same website you always have go for said, Hey, no big deal, just put in this line of code and put it here exactly where we tell you and everything will be fine. But there's interaction with other lines of code that really shouldn't be affecting it, that that are for some people, thankfully, it's only about 5% that are still working through that issue.KevinAnd also, thankfully, I just saw an article posted yesterday like for 90% of people, UK is still alive and kicking and I.AndrewDidn't see it. I'm like, I want to use it. But then I. Principal Mike, I don't think I could be the one that says I.KevinFinally converted all of my little stars on Google Analytics over to Jay for accounts versus UK. But it is terrible.JulieI have to say I've gotten more use to die for than I thought because the other day I was in there and I was like, Oh shoot, I'm using you. Like just because it looked familiar to me. And I was like, Oh, I'm not. I'm just used to this now. So that's good. And Andrew, the most frustrating thing is when a piece of data is showing up in one place, like randomly, but it's showing up in the place it needs to show up.JulieYou're like, I know it's there, it exists, I just can't make it. So that was where it needs to show.AndrewI think that was Tuesday. Julie and I were troubleshooting Google Tag Manager and J4 and like everything was correct, it just wouldn't show up in both places. For certain events. We're setting up to support conversion tracking. Yeah, there's no certainty. Which by the way, I look above my head. The site added. You look right, that perfect.JulieWill.AndrewColor my room. It's stuff that's that's all my story is but I get the 5% of of all of it so like 90% of my world is it's it's broken J for I'm like are you kidding?KevinAndrew is our level five tech support. Yeah.AndrewSo it all rolls sideways and uphill and diagonally to me. It's great.KevinWe don't have a perfect tracker here to fixing everything, but we are, I think, nearly perfect on identifying the cause. Like if it's something that we can't touch, like a website or a server issue or whatever. But we can, we can usually help sometimes.JulieI'm actually happy when Andrew can't fix it out, so I feel like it was a dumb question. It was like, This might be stupid. Andrew And then when you can't and I'm like, Yes, it's a real.AndrewProblem and sometimes that's enough is like, okay, cool. I'm not going crazy anymore. Like we all agree this is just weird and quirky. We're not going to worry about it for a little bit. And then sure enough, I'll just fix itself on its own.KevinNext up, I guess we'll link to my tweet. We still call it that. I don't know. But Zillow is hiring over 100 photographers around the country like to continue to enhance their enhanced listings product. And so what's really cool about this is Zillow. If you've missed somewhere, been under a rock over the last six months or so, showing shown time plus which they purchased, which is like the centralized scheduling platform and then they've kind of built around that enhanced listing features, 3D tours, photos, basically everything you need to get your listing to look better.KevinYou get a better layer on the actual map as well. They're going all in on this and I think it's the right call for any syndication company to do so because, you know, Julie wrote a book and that's great, but content's still hard for builders, harder than it maybe should be. A lot of times it's just because they are still doing something really stupid, like connected TV advertising or billboards or whatever.KevinLike you have the money to solve this problem, but you're using it for for less efficient purposes. But I, I have a feeling this is going to be huge when they start to roll it out. And I have no idea when they'll be doing this. But the moment the builders can just say are already advertising on Zillow and it's like, yeah, for X amount more or I don't know if they're going to include it, but you want to just come take pictures of this house, like really good pictures and it's also a good box out move for home XCOM, which is trying to come in and disrupt.KevinAlthough I read an article that basically they even know they're not going to be Zillow, it's like where our goal is to be a really good number two and keep Zillow honest. But we're not going to we're not going to take over.AndrewI mean, there's there's being ads to Google ads. So there's always the number two. I wonder if they'll even have the photographers edit, Which would be.KevinI think so. I mean, basic basic edits. Yeah, basic cleanup.AndrewAnd that's like, imagine that.KevinBe really smart about this from a strategic perspective. And homes while Costar Homes parent company started this on the commercial side they can take these pictures and again I haven't seen any paperwork so I have no clue how this will work. But my hunch is it will work similar to Costar. And that Costar lets the commercial agents use the imagery that they shoot for anything except to send to other commercial real estate syndication portals.KevinSo this whole concept Inman Connect in Vegas has gone on this week, and one of the panels with Robert Rifkin, the CEO of Compass and someone from Redfin and the CEO of Next Next Home, I think is the name of the company. They're all talking about how like pocket listings or like listings that are unique to to a company are just so incredibly important right now because there's not enough of them.KevinAnd that's why we talked about Howard Hanna's move in the Cleveland area to be like, Nope, we're not sharing our listings with other offices in the same way we have been. This is just like, again, it's in the technology world. They call it like getting closer to the bare metal. You're talking about taking pictures of listings, You're getting closer to boxing out competitors in like the most bare metal approach, like here, like it's where the rubber meets the road.KevinLike you don't have pictures. Great. So you're listing on homes that com says that the house is 2000 square feet but it has no pictures.AndrewYeah, it's pretty simple.KevinNo one's going to care, Alison.AndrewEspecially the beat, I'm sure. Great pictures to like. They'll be standardized and like, that would be the look for real estate photography. Whatever Zillow decides, if they end up being like they set the mood, they set the tempo of it. So that's, that's pretty cool. Good for them.KevinYeah. I just think what good for everyone if it's done right and we don't know if it will be done right, but anything that helps a builder solve a problem at a reasonable price and help Zillow like that's doesn't happen often again. But win win wins are really good.AndrewYeah, I like it again.KevinAll right. Back to bad news that we're we're going. I think so.AndrewIt's like bad news I think it's bad.KevinFrom from Redfin dot com housing market Update The typical U.S. homebuyers monthly payment is up nearly 20% from a year ago as prices rise.AndrewThat's a big 20%.KevinThe average price of a home is only up 3.2%, but the average payment is up 20. Thank you. Interest rates?AndrewYeah. Interest rates, do you think? Obviously lower down payments, I would assume so. That's affecting it. Yes. Is it my mind on this goes to everything outside of housing like this does affect housing, but I'm like, so I'm in Florida right here by the water 5 minutes away. I'm thinking like, oh, like a lot of people on a boat.AndrewYou got a boat show. You do not see a price. You see a monthly payment on every boat. And you're like, yeah, boats 229 a month bring a boat warranty and include seats. So all this stuff here, like I'll be looking at Lindsay 229 month, like we just don't have to go to Chick-Fil-A six times. Like that's not bad.AndrewLet's sacrifice that. We could get a boat, bring boat. But as things like this go up, I'm like, Oh, that's not an option anymore. Let's not do that. And now the person that's selling the boat, they have less commission now they're making less money. That's kind of like a cascading effect of like if you're what's the phrase like house house for like eventually I feel like that long term, I don't have the data on this and not on The Economist info on this like you eventually that affects other industries and it's this full circle of like, that's not good.AndrewI'm sure there's like a perfect number to be at, right? That I don't know. Maybe there isn't where if it's too high, then it affects you spend less in other places. If it's too low, then there should be more spend and housing. You could afford more as that keeps prices lower, keeps demand lower, if that makes any sense in my head.AndrewThis makes perfect sense.KevinI think it makes it just like, I don't know, 2000 people who work for the Fed, who are trying to figure out like answer that question extremely complicated. That's why rates are moving around and I'm just I got a little bit distracted because I'm looking at this chart, which is on the video version on on YouTube. For those of you watching or on do, you can become yeah, home listings are down 21% year over year look at so 2022 the red line this is when everyone's like see I told you so the world is going to end because listing listings started reappearing and then June, July they fell off and they I mean, the yellowKevinline for 2023 is just I mean, it's it's in the range, let's just say, of 2020 COVID lows, like April, May, number of new homes that hit the market was at an all time low for April May. But we've kind of been hanging around there all of 20, 23. It's just incredible, like the amount of pain on the used home side of the world for these folks who don't have the number of transactions is crazy.KevinAnd I am hearing again, we got to get an agent or a broker on the program to talk about this because I'm getting more emails and texts as well from builders who are like, what is going on with real estate agents? They are losing their their mind. Every deal is like a huge there. I mean, some of the words they use to describe the behavior, I don't know if I can say on air, but.AndrewYou need a little sensor.KevinBut they're like, please tell us that you have something happen at the summit in September talking about how to handle agents and what to do because it's just it's but I mean, you have to understand the pain that a lot of them are going through here. It's not it might be irrational behavior, but it's irrational behavior caused by irrational source, if that makes.JulieSense. That's why I just had a conversation with a builder that I'm like, Why? What did you do? Why are your walk ins so much higher? And it's somebody who they have never wanted to bother with realtors. They never needed realtors. They were just a pain in their side. And she was like, What? Honestly, we've been Dylan more with realtors and open to working with them now just because they need they need listings and we've got the listings.JulieSo we're like, okay, so what's kind of even changing how some people are open to working with realtor.AndrewRealtors.JulieI'm sure.AndrewPursuing.JulieIt's going to make things more crazy for them for sure.KevinYeah. Interesting. All right. I don't think there's anything else really that I want to talk about from the news. It's more like we know that stuff. Elon Musk is trying to win back advertisers with brand safety technology. I mean, I'm I don't even want to think.AndrewAbout it for. That's my thought. I'm then I have this for this this new or old news I don't know.KevinFirst of all the whole the whole thing, I mean, maybe it settles down and in some ways it has because thread thread who like, what's that thing? All the users that I and the community is alive and well they're most of the people I interact with are not have not gone away or stopped actually on. Okay but like advertisers are so fact I do want to read this I pulled up another thing that we can't share the link to because it's a subscription to Digiday plus they called me in to like a $200 subscription for the year because I really wanted to read get you again a point for like great content wins.KevinBut advertisers are so fickle and right now they're such pressure to perform that experimentation on a platform that's been there, done that, and not much has changed. It's like now we all tried. Remember, everyone was going to boycott Instagram and Facebook and never used them again and they were going to go on LinkedIn and Twitter and Pinterest and all these other places.KevinWell, guess what? They're back because they need things that actually deliver qualified people in revenue. So this article is here's what ad and media execs really mean when they commented on their queue to earnings. This is hilarious to me. So and so far so good. I'll try to use different voices just for entertainment value. So these are all things that that high level executives said on their earnings call.KevinThe is Doug Horn, the CFO at Gannett. For those of you who are born in the last 35 years, that's a newspaper company who tries to do digital media as well. But here's what he said. Despite secular headwinds, the decrease in print advertising revenue was limited to 8.9% year over marking the smallest decline observed in the past year.KevinAnd then here's what he actually meant. That quarter could have been a lot worse, except for the fact that our print advertising sucked less than expected. I think people are still dumb enough to buy print ads. Spence Newman, the CFO at Netflix, said. Our overall ad arm subscription plus ads continue to be higher than basic ad free globally, same as the statement on standard Bore.KevinHere's what he meant. Advertising is not a major moneymaker for Netflix, yet we made all of our money by just not letting people share subscriptions. I'm not even going to say what they actually said, just what they meant, because it's it's to me, it's just a really good insight into the chaos that is the traditional advertising world. Zaslav Warner Brothers CEO said.KevinWho needs a massive subscriber base When you can focus on a handful of loyal customers and make millions, am I right? So basically it's like we're not even going to try to grow the number of subscribers we have there. Just charge them a heck of a lot of money for not a lot of content, and it's working just fine.KevinMichael CAVANAUGH Comcast president. There are too many moving parts that would need to align for a deal of the magnitude to come together of being sold or swapping business units. See, I think there's one other one in here that was really interesting. Bob Bakish, CEO of Paramount Global, talking about the whole writers strike and labor dispute. Basically, whoever has the goal tends to make the rules and we've got the gold.KevinAnd they also by the way, it's been interesting just hearing all of the AI generative AI discussions around like, could you pick a worse time to have a strike over something that.AndrewSo yeah.KevinIt just is really interesting. So I mean, Mark Zuckerberg, this is pretty good. Rails plays exceeded 200 billion per day across Facebook and Instagram. We're seeing good progress on real monetization as well with the annual revenue run rate across our apps now exceeding $10 billion up from 3 billion last fall. What he actually meant is we're about to make a whole crap ton of money from short form videos.KevinVery soon.AndrewYeah.KevinBut like people in the print industry, I mean, even TV again, I've hinted at a couple of times, but connected TV advertising sounds awesome. And like Disney Plus right now is pivoting their last call. Iger just said, You know what? We don't want people like we're going to up the price of Disney Plus because we will make way more money.KevinIf we can sell ads, then if we make people pay what they're willing to pay for the platform. So their goal is actually to grow the ad supported subscriptions more than anything else. And if if they and others convince more people to do that and you can start affordably, that's the key. Affordably targeting households with TV advertising on streaming services, that would be great for right now.KevinIt's the only way that people like Disney can make money. They can sell the that because the concept of it is so good in an actual performance it it's not worth the expense being paid except for those people who are making money from the ads being being bought.AndrewYeah, I mean, essentially it is Go ahead.JulieDoes it it feel weird that we're like subscriptions? No more ads. And then the pendulum is swinging other way, right? It's like our kids aren't going to understand. No, no, we're just going back to cable. Like, we already had this, and then we didn't have this, and now we have this again. It's just the way things cycle through is interesting to me.KevinWell, I think it's a cat and mouse game of we as advertisers. We want this ability to target at the household level. What screen streaming accounts allow that cable accounts didn't I used to do cable TV advertising at Heartland and you could pick a zip code. That was it like you could you can say target all of the Time Warner or Comcast subscribers in the zip code.KevinThat was the most you could target. Now that you can target accounts and you know who those accounts are, and that data gets blended with other data sources, it's the right thing that advertisers want. Whether consumers will put up with it is another thing, because it's it's hard to go back to like we use YouTube TV. Big brother is out.KevinMy wife loves Big brother. That's usually I get her the subscription to like the all access thing for Big Brother for her birthday. We missed the first two episodes, so we have to go back and watch YouTube, TV records, everything. But you have to. If you don't put it in your own DVR tool, you have to watch it with ads.KevinAnd I kid you not like every ad break is 8/32 commercials and they ad and like double it's like punitive. It's like you missed it haha we got you.AndrewYou want it.KevinAnd it's just painful to watch that stuff.AndrewPainful. I mean, at the end of the day, it's revenue per user, right? Just like you look at Facebook when they deliver their quarterlies, you read the PDFs and you're like, okay, okay. Like, all right, a average U.S. user is worth $23.54 per quarter. So you're like, Oh, well, I'll just pay $15 a month. I have no ads on my Facebook for them.AndrewYou know, they're not making that choice to do that. But that's what it is. That's at least that's why I interpret it like, right, we could go this way or this way. Revenue per user and then revenue at the end. But then they get into like, well, we need longevity, we need retention of these users. We can have attrition and dying off.AndrewSo they have to factor in all those things. But a fun, fun analysis for billions of dollars and and revenue to do. And like, here's what I'm presenting shaking your hands like I'm nervous to tell this to someone.KevinBut okay favorites.AndrewOh man. Oh man.KevinYeah. Andrews. Andrews again filling in for Beth last second. Let's see I think.AndrewFavorite.KevinAnd you can skip if you need to.AndrewActually you.KevinGot everything.JulieI got one. So my son just turned 15. He's starting high school, so for his birthday, he wanted us to take him shopping at the backpacker, which is like a it's more expensive than we're like usually for school clothes we would do like Target and all Navy because it's very everybody knows that I'm thrifty like that, so it's more expensive.JulieBut they had the they got the coolest school backpacks there to him out of the loop but they're there have an insulated pocket in the front for their lunches. So you know, you're 15 at high school. You don't want to carry a lunch bell. You must have like, built into the cool little backpack. So watch me cringe. Like it.JulieYes. Made me cringe a little bit when we.AndrewYeah, these are up there. I'm looking at them.JulieWhat we paid for all his clothes there. But, you know, he's getting older. He wanted the the cooler clothes.AndrewYeah. Yeah.KevinI'll just I'm wondering, I think your favorite should be the kids are back in school.AndrewThat is. That is my favorite. Yeah, that's great. It's my favorite. That's that. You want to do it this year. But yeah, I started This will be our next so like two weeks ago they started I time this is out I think or a week ago, whatever it may be. But yeah, I'm excited for that. But the fun challenge though is record 330 Eastern day at home.AndrewLike right now I want at 4:00 but I want to start is when they get home. So I'm like mute, unmute, mute because I have to walk through the door, which is, you know, 15 feet that way with my door shut and all that stuff is fine. But yeah, that was fun shopping for them. We have three so that you have to but you went to the backpacker, which Looks like a super sweet spot to go to.JulieFor a few things not have.AndrewYou think about.JulieEverything.AndrewBut it's yeah, our kids are in uniforms which is great, but you still like they got to get the dry fit ones otherwise, like the collared shirts shrink and then so they don't last long time. But yeah, so it's expensive starting back up school but I'm glad they're gone. It's quite the power bill will definitely go down because Fortnite and the Ps5, the Xbox and desktop are not running upstairs all day.AndrewRight. I'll take that. Forgot about that.KevinBut I am. I'm late to the game here. I feel like food shown up in boxes has come and gone for most people. They're like, Yeah, I tried Blue Apron, all that stuff. This is factor 75. I don't know if you've heard of this, but their refrigerated meals, they're all fully, fully prepared.AndrewOkay.KevinAnd the quality of the meat in particular is incredible. Like it is. It's like going to Cardinals, which is the premier butcher here in town. If you're going to make ribs or steak for special occasion, you're going to craft onions. All the meat is really, really good. It's not I guess some people use it for like dieting or whatever, but there's four or five categories like keto or like low calorie vegetarian, vegan or whatever.KevinIt's all really good. There is a pork chop thing that my wife had because she did it first and I was like, What are we doing? This is dumb. And I tried it. I thought it was filet mignon covered with like a cheese sauce. It was some pork chop thing. And I was like, okay, I'm sold. They can make pork chop tastes like filet mignon.KevinI'm in. I don't I'm sure it's expensive. But here's the thing. Everyone's going to school for the first time. No more home schooling for the Oakley's. And that means there's not lunches that are going to be downstairs and I won't eat anything. Like, I'll just eat a a a protein bar for lunch.AndrewKevin.KevinAnd it's way better for my body if I just eat actual meal.AndrewIt does a good and it's, yeah, we do some meal meal prep like this as well. It's definitely worth it. It's still cheaper than going to cheaper as in, if I do leave the office, I go pick up Chick-Fil-A, then I wait in line and then I drive back and then I sit at it like there's 45 minutes right there.AndrewEven though chick flies 10 minutes and this is maybe a dollar two because.KevinIt's all refrigerated, there's really no prep time for every single one of these entrees is 2 minutes.AndrewYes. And it's real food. Like, it's not like the ingredients are like chicken.KevinIn the bath. It does take up a little bit of fridge space. But yeah, that's some surprisingly because this is not really my thing.AndrewSecond fridge, I'm thinking that's well. Oh, have you had their blueberry buttermilk pancakes or.KevinIt's not done any breakfast. It's just purely a lunch thing. So Melanie doesn't have to mess with extra groceries for lunch for either of us. We just. And the portion sizes. I'm not. I'm not hungry.AndrewWith a smoky bacon and cheddar egg bites. Four of them looks pretty good.KevinFor those of you who may not be familiar, Andrews to all of the sessions are food and clothes.AndrewShorts, shopping for short.KevinOr shopping for shirts.JulieSpecifically shorts.AndrewIt's hot. It's hot and miserable. Yeah. I'll just move to like, not unlike the cold either. I'm stuck here.KevinAll right, That'll do it for this week. Thanks again for tuning in and joining us every week. We've got some fantastic guest episodes coming out shortly, one including Julie, talking a little bit more in-depth about her book. For those of you who haven't order in yet, you get a little bit of a preview. So check that out. We'll see you next time. The post Ep 299: One Stop Shop appeared first on Online Sales and Marketing for Home Builders - DYC.