Podcast appearances and mentions of Lawrence Yun

Part 3: Home Prices... Inflation, Appreciation, Values.  What's happened and what to expect. Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast, featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris? https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly 512-758-0206 IMPORTANT: Join #1 Real Estate Coaches Tim and Julie Harris's Premier Coaching now for FREE. Included is a DAILY Coaching Session with a HARRIS Certified Coach. Proven and tested lead generation, systems, and scripts designed for this market. Instant FREE Access Now: YES, Enroll Me NOW In Premier Coaching https://members.timandjulieharris.com Home Prices: Percent increase and predictions We won't know exactly how much home prices went up in 2023 until all the figures are in, usually sometime during 1st quarter, but here's what's being reported so far… According to Statista, home prices in the US have risen for 11 consecutive years.  2021 saw the highest average increase for one year, at 18%.  Freddie Mac reports that in 2023 on average home prices increased at 3%, but remember, that's year over year.   REAL ESTATE LEADS, LEADS and more LEADS: Question: What is Tim and Julie Harris's favorite PROBATE LEAD PROVIDER? Simple, https://alltheleads.com/harris According to CoreLogic, and Case-Shiller indexes, home prices in the US increased 3.9% in 2023, but these are averages. Many cities saw far greater increases this year: (CNBC) The following cities had year-over-year median home price increases of 10% or more since September of 2022: (interestingly, only the first 2 are coastal). Los Angeles +23.8% San Diego +18.2% Richmond, VA +15% Boston +14 % Columbus, Oh + 12% Rochester, Ny + 11.4% Chicago, +10% Indianapolis, +10% It's also interesting that all of these towns with 10% or higher year-over-year increase had experienced a leveling off or decrease in the 2nd half of 2022, when the rate shock was fresh. Ready to become an EXPIRED Listing Agent? As promised, here is the discount link for the EXPIRED LISTING LEADS: https://www.redx.com/affiliate/tim-and-julie-harris/?aff_code=670699 Median home prices in both LA and San Diego increased by 38% and 48% respectively since January of 2020. (realtor.com) So what about places like Columbus, Indianapolis, Richmond, and Rochester?  The common thread is affordability, with each of those towns averaging $416,000.  (US Census data) Demand there is high and affordability isn't crazy. So will prices keep going up in 2024?  By how much?   According to both Zillow as well as NAR's economist Lawrence Yun, prices should increase an average of 3 to 4% in 2024. Our predictions?  Unlike the crazy pandemic market, where very different regions and cities acted very similarly with crazy appreciation, everything getting multiple offers, waived appraisals, and inspections, 2024 will see different trends in different places.  Real estate prices will be very dependent on local trends versus national ones. Watch your MLS hot sheets every day so you'll detect local trends.  You'll need to know what's hot and what's not for each buyer, for each seller.  Maybe home prices in your town will go up by 10%, but one county away could be stagnant. The old adage that ‘real estate is like the weather…it's very local', is now true again.  Knowledge = confidence, ignorance = fear.  Be the one with all the knowledge and speak from fact, not speculation. Does this moderation of prices mean that 2024 will be a Buyer's Market, a Seller's Market, or a Balanced Market? As long as demand is stronger than supply due to low inventory, it will remain a seller's market.  Until our inventory increases significantly, versus incrementally, it will remain a seller's market, though less frenzied than during the pandemic.

PART ONE: Supply And Demand.  What to expect in 2024. Inventory.  Will we ever see more supply? We are still experiencing a historic lack of supply.  Will this improve in 2024? Welcome back to America's #1 Daily Podcast, featuring America's #1 Real Estate Coaches and Top EXP Realty Sponsors in the World, Tim and Julie Harris. Ready to become an EXP Realty Agent and join Tim and Julie Harris? https://whylibertas.com/harris or text Tim directly 512-758-0206 IMPORTANT: Join #1 Real Estate Coaches Tim and Julie Harris's Premier Coaching now for FREE. Included is a DAILY Coaching Session with a HARRIS Certified Coach. Proven and tested lead generation, systems, and scripts designed for this market. Instant FREE Access Now: YES, Enroll Me NOW In Premier Coaching https://members.timandjulieharris.com Currently, as we are coming to the end of 2023, inventory levels are seasonally low.  That's completely normal.  Inventory usually peaks around mid-October, falls until the year changes, and picks up in the Spring.   Our active inventory level, excluding new construction, is currently around 560,000 active listings.  For comparison, this week in 2015 (largely seen as the last ‘normal' market), there were 1,104,514 active listings.  (Altos Research) REAL ESTATE LEADS, LEADS and more LEADS: Question: What is Tim and Julie Harris's favorite PROBATE LEAD PROVIDER? Simple, https://alltheleads.com/harris There are .5% more homes on the market this week versus the same week last year.  There were 58,000 new listings this week, and 10,000 of those homes went pending immediately.  That's good news considering we're in the slowest time of the year.  To see ANY increase in inventory at this point in the year is remarkable and hopefully a trend. Should we worry about a LOT more inventory wrecking the market and crashing prices? According to Lawrence Yun (chief economist for NAR): “There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.” Typically as rates come down (and they've come down from a high of 8.1% earlier this year to nearly 7% in the past week), we should see more inventory come online since the typical seller is also a buyer.  As rates moderate lower, inventory should climb higher.   Ready to become an EXPIRED Listing Agent? As promised, here is the discount link for the EXPIRED LISTING LEADS: https://www.redx.com/affiliate/tim-and-julie-harris/?aff_code=670699 That's good news about inventory!  What should you watch in your market? -Watch your MLS hot sheet daily and see 'what's hot and what's not' -Is the inventory rising or falling in each area you work? -What price ranges are seeing the most price reductions? -Where is all the inventory? Certain zip codes and/or prices? -Are the Average Days on the Market going up or down? -What is the list-to-sell price ratio in the areas you work? -What are the builders doing to promote their inventory? Demand Demographic Demand. The demand from the millennials and upcoming Generation Z buyers together make up a population larger than the entire country of Japan.  It's not a small amount of people. The oldest of the millennial generation are now in their early 40s, and the average age of first-time buyers is currently 36.  How many of them have been sitting out the market, building up their downpayment, and waiting for rates to slide into the 6's?  That's a lot of pent-up demand just waiting to pounce. Baby Boomers are still aging out of their homes, downsizing, paying cash, and entering into assisted living care facilities.  Many of today's transactions are fueled by the Boomers.   If you add the inventory from the Boomers and the demand of the Millennials and Generation Z, rates come down and then we're right back to a hot market. It's too soon to tell, but demographics are certainly on our side, and a good reason to see home prices continue to increase.

The 2024 Housing Market Will Consist of Lower Mortgage Rates and a 15% Jump in Exising Home Sales according to NAR's Lawrence Yun. How will these changes affect House Prices? Should you buy now or wait? In this live episode, we are going to discuss the latest from the Federal Reserve, the latest employment and economic data while helping you understand how that affects you as a buyer or seller in the 2024 housing market. Tonight's Slides - https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1NkbaxzVl78XCxrw3U3M1RzV276AbLqq6xwrADWKB2eE/edit?usp=sharing ✅ - Want to get connected with us or to a local expert in your market, please reach out at http://www.theeducatedhomebuyer.com/expert Connect with Jeb

Home inventory climbs faster, HomeServices evidence gets messy in Sitzer/Burnett commission lawsuit, and NAR's Lawrence Yun shares 2024 predictions.

Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, does not predict a crash anytime soon- in fact he is predicting a stable market with modest appreciation over the next 5 years! Plus Alice gives her tips for Southern Oregon sellers that are trying to decide whether to stay on the market through the holidays or not. Alice Lema, Broker (541) 301-7980 https://www.AliceLema.com John L. Scott Real Estate 871 Medford Center, Medford OR 97504 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/alice-lema/support

Lawrence Yun, the President of the National Association of Realtors gave his take on the current interest rate environment and where he see things going next. I discuss his thoughts and why to me that make a lot of sense both now and going forward, as well as the impact to the 30 year fixed rate mortgage and the housing market.

Market Proof Marketing · Ep 300: Good Content Looks EffortlessIn this episode, Kevin Oakly, Andrew Peek and Julie Jarnagin are joined by a surprise guest, Karla Tuten! The team celebrates the 300th episode by keeping it casual. Karla gives a deep dive into visual marketing and offers tips for builder content, especially for those who don't know where to start. They discuss the challenges of creating good content that contains real facts, real data and is packaged well graphically. Good content looks effortless, but takes a lot of effort. Story Time (05:58)Andrew is worn out from the Market Proof Academy and, once again, wishes for one more day.Julie's mom is trying to buy a car but feels like the car salesmen should be trying harder to sell their cars to her. No one is following up or reaching out. Kevin says creating stuff is tough sometimes.News (35:55)Mortgage rates could hit 8%, economists say, citing a worrying sign not seen since the Great Recession (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-could-hit-8-economists-say-citing-a-worrying-sign-not-seen-since-the-great-recession-edf2b4a4)Don't Discount the Merits of a Friction-full Transaction (https://crystal.geekestate.com/dont-discount-the-merits-of-a-friction-full-transaction-newsletter-263/)China Evergrande, Giant Real Estate Firm, Files for U.S. Bankruptcy (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/business/china-evergrande-bankruptcy.html)First-time homeownership surges: Half of all home buyers are making their first purchase (https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2023-08-23-First-time-homeownership-surges-Half-of-all-home-buyers-are-making-their-first-purchase)Favorites/Hates (53:27)Andrew is hating his boom stand because it keeps sliding downJulie is loving "Homework Helpers" for help on her sons homework.Kevin is enjoying his app "Sunshine Birthdays"Check out Kevin's NAHB Webinar on Navigating the 5 Phases of a Market Correction! Questions? Comments? Email show@doyouconvert.com or call 404-369-2595 and we'll address them on the next episode. More insights, discussions, and opportunities can be found at Do You Convert All Access or on the Market Proof Marketing Facebook group.Subscribe on iTunesFollow on SpotifyListen On StitcherA weekly new home marketing podcast for home builders and developers. Each week Kevin Oakley, Andrew Peek, Jackie Lipinski, Julie Jarnagin, and other team members from Do You Convert will break down the headlines, share best practices and stories from the front line, and perform a deep dive on a relevant marketing topic. We're here to help you – not to sell you!Transcript:I'm just starting this slide, this misunderstanding, disagreement. I don't know what it is, but Andrew says, and I don't. You don't want to make anyone mad. Labor Day isn't his favorite holiday, but it's.AndrewBecause I have nothing against it.Kevinis it because its a Holiday or because there's...?AndrewNo no, I think there's other holidays I need to list before it. I guess I'm getting called out here a list of like I think there's other shut everything down worthy holidays that are not fully shut down for everyone. It's like that's a bank holiday only. I'm like, well, that should.KevinBe arguing for more days off generally.AndrewRight? Like, that's like a mixed day. Like sometimes it's like, are banks closed? Not closed. I don't know. Schools are still and sometimes that one should just be Everything's done. I'll swap Labor Day for him. Okay. If we're to pick like, all right, there's eight holidays where everything's shut down. Christmas, July 4th, Memorial Day, whatever the other ones are.AndrewThanksgiving.KevinI figured it was just because, like, something that the weather in Florida wasn't working. Oh, it's still hot.AndrewAnd we just started school, like, three weeks ago, so it's like a month in a school. So it's like, do we need a holiday?JulieI don't know. Yeah, like something.AndrewLate September.JulieThat end of summer real. I mean, that's how some people think of it, right? Like the polls close on Labor Day. But here too, it's still so hot.AndrewYeah. Mhm. I think so.KevinI just we had a we had a little typhoon here in Columbus, Ohio.AndrewOh.KevinLast night I kind of felt like what, Because, you know, Julia lives in Louisiana.AndrewShe gets it all.AndrewI have pretend hurricanes.KevinBut there's this thing called a heat dome. How is it that every like three years they come up with some new term.AndrewThey get me the clicks, heat dome. I like it. And we Google that there.KevinThere's a heat dome over over the Midwest and not the edge of the heat dome if you turn on the radar. And it was just this weird. It looked like just someone poured water out of a pitcher and it was just rolling straight from the corner of Michigan, straight down central Ohio. And it just kept coming. And it was like 7 hours of lightning, strong wind and just a ton of rain.JulieOh, wild.KevinLike, do I have to move? I mean, I Anyway, it was a good time.AndrewI just Google it. Yeah. Interesting. AP all about this. Hmm. And pumpkin spice lattes just came out today. It's related to the heat dome.KevinWe had this conversation on one episode. Yeah, there's a new pumpkin drink. What is it? It's another cold drink called chai something pumpkin. So now you have three pumpkin options at Starbucks.AndrewThat's a lot.JulieYeah. I don't do the pumpkin drinks.AndrewThat's a lot of, like, pumpkin pie, spice, flavors all in one.KevinThis is to my favorite section, but ever since I got to spin coffee machine, I just don't. I do not desire Starbucks or like coffee out in the same way.AndrewDo you like iced coffees? I feel like you can't beat iced from Starbucks any like I have not been. You can.KevinDo it. You can do cold brew. You can do nitro drip cold, whatever. Like it just says put ice in your cup and it cleans out the hot water. Puts in cold water.AndrewYeah, we're all gonna all.JulieBe inside out. And Olivia said she's literally drinking the pumpkin chai right now. So she's like, Oh, there you go, pumpkin chai on trend.KevinIs it good? I feel like it would be because chai is kind of a.AndrewI like chai. Yeah, 30 Chai. If I've had that chai with the espresso, it's amazing. We hear it's amazing. Like The Wizard of Oz back there helping to steal that.KevinMy favorite from my time in Nepal is Milk Coffee, which is, I think goat milk. Oh, no water and instant like instant crystals.AndrewWeird. Sounds like it's like that.KevinAnd they're not the best milk coffee. Experience my life. All right, let's get started.AndrewThere's the goat. Yep.KevinWell, welcome to episode 300. I'm Kevin Oakley. And with me today is Andrew Peek and Julie's aunt again.JulieMe? Oh.AndrewWho knew we'd be doing this 300 episodes later?JulieThat's impressive. That's crazy exciting. I have.KevinI thought we make this our last one. Let's just end it right. Fine.AndrewI'm fine with that grand.KevinValley.AndrewThree. I want to be something new.JulieThat's on market this year to make it really good, though, so.KevinOh, you know what we should do? Because this is what cracks me up when people do like season six episode one, it's like, just start. Like, I don't know why there's so much conscious thought put into that, but we should just. How about season two begins with a sincere one. We'll start with the season two episode one. Let's just start over because it's going to get obnoxious when we get to, you know, we got to figure out something else, Olivia Because when we get to episode 1200, it's just, it's too many things to say.AndrewYeah, we can have different.KevinEpisode 1234.AndrewThousand. It's now 2028 time right now. Oh, gosh, that's a long time.KevinOh, man. So the other thing that we're just going to keep talking about her like she's here with us, our producer, Olivia, is like, you know, we really do need to do live episodes of the podcast. So, okay, I think we decided on once a quarter, she's checking the calendar, but we will you'll hear about it that way.KevinYou can all join in, ask your questions, but they'll be fun. Fun time. Yeah. Maybe we can maybe pull people in for live Q&A or some live storytime we'd have to have like the voice and the voice.AndrewChanger.KevinAnd zoom. That just makes you look like there's got to be the person in hiding and like, a in voice changer. I sorry time about this traffic that. Yeah.KevinOh, all right.AndrewStory is good for that speaking. Sorry time was up first. I got one. I didn't write it down. Yeah, I got one. Yeah, we had the academy last week, so that was. That was amazing. Taking through. Jeez, 11, 12 people. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. What's that like 12 hours of instruction? It wears me out like, Oh, my. And I'm.AndrewI'm doing half of it with Sarah. And what's, what's fun is over time, this is like inside knowledge over time. It's like, okay, you take that segment, I would take a break for a little bit. Like I just can't like, look at like at Zoom nice and pleasant for this long and I need to go camera off for like, for a little bit, get a little snack, refill my coffee, whatnot.AndrewSo, you know, each one, it just changes and changes. And we Sarah and I meet afterwards every single time. Like, what can we do better? What can we do better? And every single time I'm just like, man, I want another day, which is like torture for everybody. Like, it's already four days. Andrew What is wrong with you? But there's just so much you can just keep going and going.AndrewI wish there was some way this. I'm just really open talking right now. We teach the definitions. We teach knowledge, the foundational things. All these things are super important thing. It's the analysis. And that is the most difficult part for everybody. And teaching, I don't there's we could teach it, but it's just so much just like experience. You just need the reps near the reps and the reps are what's Malcolm Gladwell 10000 hours.AndrewYou need your thousand hours and an analysis. You need your next 1000. They need your next 1000. Time to get to ten. You're like, Oh, okay, this is fairly comfortable, but just getting over the hurdle even to like you spent 200 hours in analytics trying to solve a problem, not just like poking around in there. I wish there's a way to expedite that for people, but there's just there's not no.KevinI don't think you want one. I mean, we've had lots of folks that are good intentioned and they're like, Kevin, we should just take this whole market, provide rhythm, and just have it spit out the answer.AndrewLike an app.KevinOr give us, you know, even internally had a conversation where some people here were like, we just want a number to tell people for this thing of like, this is the goal. I was like, I mean, it doesn't really I, I know this is a well overplayed expression, which I think that reminds me, Olivia, next time I'm on the podcast, I want to have a whole section about things we never need to say again in our industry, that that's just I'm, I keep hearing the same.KevinLike those were analogies and examples to use 12 years ago. Are we still talking about the same thing?AndrewBut I don't know.KevinThe last one is in play. Chess. You do not want to. If you are a great chess player, you there should be no reason that you want to dumbed down the rules of the game to get back to checkers when you are a grandmaster at chess now you do have to be able to. And if you're a true grandmaster, you should be able to teach someone the basic rules and fundamentals of chess without losing your mind, screaming or pouting like a child.KevinOkay, So that's that's I think, part of it.AndrewThat's fair.KevinBut holy cow, what is this drive to get everything so really simplified? So I'm using the chess analogy because I think this is what I mean. I'm on Chess.com if you want to sign up and play me, I'll do it. But just know that I'm in the middle of probably parenting one of my four children and I will mess up.KevinSo excuse a great chess player yet, but thinking moves ahead, right? The more moves you can think ahead, the better. And how I view the analysis problem is that people look at it and go, I just want the answer. And again, there's all sorts of reasons why that's.AndrewLike the final move out. The final move. I don't care how we get there.KevinBut I think they do sometimes and this is on on me and all of us to do a better job teaching and training. They look at what someone who's thinking eight moves ahead and by I don't mean moves, I mean layers. Okay. To go away from the analogy of chess back to the actual thing we're doing here of there is the data and that in itself, let's just say, encompasses three or four layers of analysis, potential analysis.KevinAnd there's always more than one potential. There's one potential. There's at least one true problem or issue. And each of those has no more than three possible reasons why there could be more than one true issue. And then that that, you know, extrapolates. But even beyond that, then you have to start talking, thinking about like, okay, well then let's layer over our company culture and then let's lay over how this sales manager thinks or how that salesperson acts or the usage or non usage of the CRM or the market and the competition and, and, and, and certainly the more layers you have to your point innately, most of it just requires repetition and experience becauseKevinotherwise you just find yourself going through layers one through four and you're like, I got the answer, I'm done. And then I'm almost I'm almost done with this diatribe. You go and present. Let's say you feel really confident that you analyze those three or four layers well and you go into a meeting, you go up to your boss or the sales manager, like, here's what, And then they hit you with the one thing you didn't think of.KevinAnd you're like, Oh, and you know, the Jenga pile just crumbles. I think I think there's just that aspect of and that's why we always talk about use humility with this stuff. It is not the data says X, therefore it must be X, It's hey, this is what it looks like. But is there something we're missing here? Is there something that we don't know but that's going on with this person personally or is there something with the land deal that requires us to be acting in this way because we have to perform in a certain, you know, Anyway, I just I love the fact that you brought that up.KevinI think it's a whole other.AndrewThat exactly what was fun was it's.KevinAlmost like you should talk about that at.AndrewThe.KevinSummit.AndrewAnd so like food. So let's talk about food. Beth So one thing we did different with this academy is usually it is Sarah and I, 95% of it. And then I add to Kevin's calendar like 6 hours before it starts, like, Hey, Kevin, I want you to talk about this. And Kevin hops on and does some inspirational talking like, Hey, what's the role of marketing?AndrewLike, No, no, no. And what's fun is no one gets that answer correct at the beginning. It's day one unless.KevinThey've heard it before.AndrewThat is true. Unless they've heard it before it. The second day, I'm like, Oh, let's have a coach on. Julie, you're our next victim. And in November, by the way, get her some notice. Beth hopped on and she she did a very similar analogy, Kevin, where she talked about onions. And so, like if you're day one or we had some people that there like month three on the job, they can only go to the first layer in the onion.AndrewMeanwhile, we're over here kind of talking and then just like visualizing and thinking like we know there's like 12 layers to this thing. We also know there's old onions we need to think about and there's future. And we're like all excuse me, all over the place with it. So the Onion analogy, I'm like, Oh, that's good. There might be tears too, as you learn more and more Onion feels that has me like, Oh, I'm embarrassed.AndrewI didn't know that. Or like, I feel like an idiot. But over time, like you didn't.KevinRealize that it's just more such a nerd. And then we just had a special guest pop on, which this is a.AndrewSurprise party.KevinAnd you never need an invitation. Don't don't give away who yet, but as a kid, I remember watching Lawrence of Arabia, which is a way too long movie in an old theater. My parents made me go I think I was seven, the only scene from that. And I think it's three and a half hours long and has two different intermissions or whatever.KevinThere's one scene where Lawrence of Arabia puts out a candle with his fingertips and the guy looks at him and says, Holy cow, what's the trick to doing that? Because because it looks like there's a trick, because it doesn't cause him any pain. He doesn't like his fingers. He just pushes it and he goes, The trick is making it look like it doesn't hurt.KevinAnd I just think like that's we've talked about this many of our ways, the confidence aspect. In fact, what do we say on I call it it's either it's either lack of confidence or lack of competence. So some good alliteration there. But it goes back to repetition, repetition, repetition. Hey, Carla, Welcome.JulieHi, I'm.AndrewFriend.KarlaGood. What are you doing?KevinOh, we're just recording a podcast. And Carlos, our creative director. And do you convert? For those of you who may be under a rock, she's taking names and changing lives all over the industry. What's what's the what's going on right now? Carla, What's. What do you. What are you doing? What's keeping you busy these days?KarlaI'm busy all the time. I feel like the last time I was on here was back in January, so I decided to crash a party.AndrewIt's been a while.KarlaIt has been a while. But I do slack, y'all. Y you're always recording. You can't talk. I'm recording. I'm like, Okay, well, um, I don't know. It's funny how there's always, like, these weird trends. At the beginning of the year, it was very heavy. Like, but everyone wanted to redo their collateral and refresh it. And then we went into like a signage program.KevinYeah, I was going to say signage would be my guess, the next one. And by the way, isn't it interesting that if you heard someone talk about like hearing these trends like we do on, on this podcast, you'd be like, does that really happen? Or and then you go do it yourself and you're like, There's something in the water or the air or like, there's this behind the scenes network of Let's all talk about signage.KevinIt comes in waves for sure.KarlaIt's really weird. And then the other last month had a bunch of, you know, probably like five different calls, different builders around the country, and they're all talking about like their sales office. And I'm like, what is going on? How is everyone wanting to now look into like their interior signage mission is bizarre. And then I was in book a book booklet land for a while, like maybe.KevinLike real paper things.KarlaPrint I've done. So print booklets that took up my time for the.KevinLike.KarlaI don't.KevinMean like checks notes or checks calendar what year we live in, but, you know, Yeah.JulieYeah, there's a lot of that. I didn't expect it like collateral you expect but like long booklets, 20 pages.KevinBecause you could or could not print the collateral. It's like how it's displayed. Yeah. Took them off, you know, printed. Yeah.KarlaThey want like hard copies. Interesting. So that doesn't sound cheap. It doesn't. It sounds like something else. It's not that sounds. But I am sort of buying the booklets.AndrewYeah, that would be pricey.KevinIs there something that you've been doing this now, like you said, for a little while? I mean, you've been doing it a long time, but doing it with with us. Is there a we were just talking about like the the trend of analysis being hard outside of what people are actually asking you to do. Is there something that you find yourself having to explain or re-explain or.KarlaYeah.KevinRe-explain again, as a concept that you just want to kind of toss out again here?KarlaProbably you have to think about, here's one, I'll talk about it because it's about collateral. And so usually when we start with that, I'm kind of like, give me everything that you have because you probably haven't touched it. And what typically happens, it comes off as a these ideas part from sales and marketing, and they get tagged onto the collateral package as these one off pieces.KarlaSo I'm like, Hey, let's go ahead and take a look at this is yet another foot view. And more often than not, they have a billion pieces. That's evergreen material. And I'm like, Why don't you think about making this a better experience instead of someone having a bunch of one pictures? So I would always say, take a step back, think about the experience, what you're giving these people.KarlaAre you burying them in tons of copy and things they may not want to read? And is there a better way to display that? Should we make it into a book? Should we? That is even important. Do you want to cut some of this out? That's typically what we're talking about when we talk about like looking at all their stuff.KevinMm hmm.KarlaIt's very easy, I think, for people to just. Oh, this is a good idea. Element is I don't a piece of paper on a word document and they always don't think about how it looks or how it's saved or how much stuff people are gathering.KevinYeah, a quick, quick poll on material or files. Generally, I'm not going to answer until the end because. But don't you think that or do I already led the witness? Sorry. Shouldn't every document that could be potentially sent or accessed or shared have some general repository that is accessible? Like like nobody home didn't start out doing this, but they found that people were like, I have all these documents that I send people maybe post-purchase or pre-purchase.KevinAnd there is no place on their website. They just how's everything even like you think about docs? So like, why is that hard to find for nonexistent on a builder site?KarlaThat would be nice to have.KevinThat's right.KarlaResource library.AndrewThat'd be that'll be great. Especially HRA stuff is interesting. I mean at least our experiences, we changed each way. Management companies like four times before, it was like our control, but it was like with it was still with the builder. So we're like, Who's in charge here? Who's in charge as homeowners do you blame? I mean, everything is always the builders fault, like always.AndrewThat's just made us, even though it's the way management company's fault, because you chose that terrible company, the builder, and so everything is the builder.KevinSo just make it easy for that saying I'm not suggesting it should be like front and center underneath our image or whatever it be for us. We just had a archway section, so we had it. We had a document library or a overall, I think we just called it Media Library and it had like any photo you might see on a community page would also be accessible in this Keystone Homes ish for those of us.KevinLike, it's like all of our pictures are here is searchable by everything, but also they're on the individual pages that are relevant to them. Same with videos and documents. And so we didn't even have a link on the community page to the docs because that might be distracting or confusing. Yeah, but certainly any time someone would ask, can I get a copy of my HRA docs that then the online sales person or salesperson who would then train the customer.KevinActually, there's this library over here and you can access anything that we have or need need to get to and it's grouped and searchable and all the rest anyway. And just when you were talking about like how separated each piece kind of is, instead of thought of in a cohesive manner. Manner. Yeah, it made me think about.KarlaThe only thing I would say that I've experience with something like that. Well, it just comes up in collateral information in general. Is that I think some teams can be lazy because someone has to keep up with the information being up to date. And so if you take the time to like make sure you have a good organization in place, like a good file, good filing, and like, you know, what's more up to date.KarlaYeah, good nomenclature. You make sure everything is what it's supposed to say, then I think it's definitely doable. But I think people just sometimes just, you know, maybe not able to. Yeah, it's a big thing to kind.KevinOf we got at that pushback all the time at Heartland and that was my that was my reason for wanting it to be out there in the wild is I just found that if it wasn't accessible by the customer, things never got updated or there were four copies going around. But once there was like, No, no, you know, some yeah, maybe someone has a document that's out of date.KevinYou have to make sure everything's dated and, and like last updated and the corner. But it was like, yeah, that document's incorrect, but I'd rather we know that and then we fix it versus having no visibility or people handing out something that's five years old that has four updates and they still have copies somewhere else saved locally, or just like, Nope, the truth is there for the customer.KevinSo that's the impetus to always make sure as it's correct, just like pricing.AndrewYeah, it doesn't create a problem which exposes what was already there.KevinShines a light on it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Cool. Well, Karla, thanks for hopping on. Yeah, Bye. Any time. I love. I love just the mean. Yeah, It's like you work here.KarlaIt is Like I want to keep it creative cave and create a cave.AndrewWith your plan.KarlaThe next.KevinTime. Bring some next time. Since this is now a video show as well. Next time, I want you to bring some like, show and tell us something.AndrewYeah, there they go.KevinBy the way, if you don't follow girl on Instagram, you should, because that's when you get some additional exposure to like show and tell.KarlaOh, yes, I'm very quiet about it. Anyway, you'll have a good afternoon. Bye.KevinThis is episode 300. You made it.AndrewYeah, 303.KevinI'm like the biggest episode zero yet. Yeah.JulieThat's the best. All right, y'all have a good one. This is fair to say, Julie.KevinStory time.JulieSo I am watching my mom shop for a car, and it's been very entertaining. And the last thing I heard her say was that she was annoyed because she wanted somebody to beg her to buy a car and they were not begging her. So what happened is she had reached out to somebody about a car and they had never emailed or called her back.JulieAnd I know we always feel or hear people saying, Oh, I don't want to bug people. Well, she's annoyed because she wants to feel like they're begging her to buy a car. And then the other thing that's been funny is she's gone out to a few lots and of course, there's not a lot of cars. You know, still, there's issues with like actually having cars there.JulieAnd she's not being super picky. She kind of knows what she want. She wants three rows and she wants a new car and there's only a brand or two that she doesn't like, but she's pretty open. But I think Kevin and I have had multiple conversations in the last week or two about the messaging of like, we have homes because there are people who are moving that need a home and we have finished inventory.JulieAnd those people need to know we have finished inventory. So it's again, it's the same thing with her. If there was a car dealership out there, you know, that would tell her, we have this many cars that you can choose from. Right now we have this many SUVs or whatever it is. Yeah, that's the messaging she needs. And she also needs the messaging of like, we want you here.JulieLike, she feels like people aren't trying to get her to come out and aren't calling her back. So it's just been a fun process to watch with with what we do.KevinIt's really interesting because my wife's birthday was on Tuesday and she likes Cheesecake Factory because there's all kinds of options and we were going to have my parents come as well. So there's a table of eight, and at least here, the Cheesecake Factory is still cool in central Ohio. So most time you got a long wait. And I think you're talking about cars, which typically is a reference point of like, why can't homebuilders do things like car dealers do historically, like be more responsive, but now they're changing.KevinAnd my point is, whether it's Cheesecake Factory or Toyota. As a consumer, you are trained by all of your interactions with all the companies. You do what to expect or to assume. And so it's it's interesting how that dynamic does shift because typically it's like like my kids are like, you don't want to go to Cheesecake Factory. You got to wait for 2 hours and then it's going to take forever to cook because there's so many different options on the menu.KevinBut I really want to go there. So we pull it up and on the front page it's like make a reservation. Like we've never been able to make a reservation at Cheesecake Factory ever. And then it says Only up to table Party of six. And I'm like, up, see, they got us because we need eight. But then there's like, you could tell that it had been designed to say parties of six and under but then someone to just add a line of text that said but if you have a bigger party and it's on a non busy day or time, we'll try to work with you.KevinAnd it's like, why did that have to be there? It's because the dynamics have shifted. And so there is this point in time where we stopped eating out altogether because it was just always a pain, always busy, always short staffed, and now they're like, Oh yeah, no problem. Come on in at 530, 6:00 on a Tuesday night.AndrewWith a.KevinTable of eight reserved. And so it's that training and that's why we've had these conversations. Julie, of, you know, that concern about having like six homes available in a community and not looking bad or desperate that that might not be true anymore. We don't know someone might look at that six available in a single community and be like oh thank God I can actually maybe get one of them.KevinIs the use on market is still so difficult in most parts of the country.JulieYeah, yeah.AndrewWhat's interesting, Julie, is that sounds like the most amazing car shopping experience ever. Them not hounding you like it's a dream for me and you want to be like, Mom, you're not trying to date this person. Like what? Despite you want that car right there. But if they don't call you, you're not going to buy it. Like, I don't feel like that.KevinBy saying beg in quotes. Like my dad had the same experience. He just shop for a car. He would go to a Lexus dealership and they'd be like, Oh, we don't you know, you couldn't even talk to a salesperson. You had to talk to the receptionist because they didn't want you to feel like you were busy. And then the guy would show up and he's like, Oh, sorry, I can't get any of the keys to test drive anything.KevinIt's locked in a safe. Can you come back some other day? And they never call. That's just like, Here's my card. You follow up with me when you want to come back out. Like it's. It's this complete lack of any customer experience.JulieYeah, that's. She's like, it's one of those experiences where it's like, I want to give you money. Like I have money to give you to buy a car and nobody acts like they want to help me with this, you know? So I think it's just frustrating for her that nobody is taking her. And so if she comes out and she's like, This is what I'm looking for.JulieAnd they're just like, now, you know, I think it's just she doesn't feel like anybody is there to help her through the process and she's getting frustrated with it.AndrewMake you want to go Tesla and just like next next next next $500 deposit that shows up in a month done.KevinRight.AndrewYeah no people.KevinStill well it is an argument for a really good self service but it always comes back to the complexity of the purchase, the fear of making a wrong decision, and the number of options that home builders have. Make self service, generally speaking, not the same experience. And I always go back to like, yeah, there's so many different apps that say design your own home with this fun, you know, architectural app and it's easy as one, two, three.KevinYou look at the and then you try to like design anything and it just keeps saying error error like why can't I put that window there? I don't know. It just won't let me. It's just not as intuitive still as an opening.JulieEspecially for her. This would not work for her. She's over 70. I know some people over 70 would love it, but not her specifically.AndrewNo.KevinYeah.AndrewI would love it.KevinMy story time is just about the first part anyway, is how difficult it is to create something. Andrew and I were talking about this too, because, you know, he's creating new content. He and Sarah are also making new content for the market proof of Academy. And I was asked by NAHB to do a webinar and around a topic that I wrote for Builder magazine about.KevinSo I like I have the content I know like it's my own story in a way of my experience with Hartland of navigating a downturn market and what we did and how we did. I wrote this 1100 word article already and yet to sit down and craft from a blank set of PowerPoint slides, which I don't even love, really using slides in the same way as most people anyway.KevinBut it was just I had this experience when I was done with it of am I getting it like I'm not too old for this, I'm not giving up. But there is is like for 10 minutes afterwards, I was just so mentally exhausted from putting in the effort of building what ended up being like a 38 page presentation from nothing that I was just like, I'm too old for this.KevinLike, this is a young person's game making content and this is just hard. And that's, that's I think why people love the idea of I help and prompting and the rest. But anyway, I just shout out to anyone who ever makes anything. And Julie just wrote a book, but like creating something, especially when it's a combination of factual data and opinion and storytelling and, and, and who that's just tough.KevinIt's it's really, really tough. Now, the payoff was, was awesome because we ended up having I think over 450 people ended up registering put a link in the shots because they said, though as soon as it's posted on their website, we'll be able to put a link in for people to watch the replay as well. A lot of good questions, really good interactions, good time, but man is.KevinBut then there's the podcast, which is the opposite, and it's like this is the easiest thing ever. I look at the show notes 10 minutes before we hit record. We just talk time. We're swapping out articles last second or you know it. This is so effortless for me anyway. But creating that type of content is really hard. And so if.JulieYou put 1000 hours in on the podcast, is part of it, you're comfortable really, you're just you've had enough reps of that. Also, I think the hard thing is, is that good content looks effortless. So we're watching other people's content and we're like, Man, why is that? Why does mine not look like that? Why does mine feel so hard?JulieAnd then what you don't know is that just because it looked easy doesn't mean it was easy. So almost my story time. So I'm going to do a story time Part two. So. Okay. I'm a purple though, in jujitsu, so I'm usually one of the higher belts, if not the highest in the morning class that I go to.JulieAnd there's a lot of white belt women there.AndrewFor those who don't know, that means you can probably kick anyone's but at the summit.JulieRight? Well, lots of that out there. But so the professor, the coach there, sorry, this is making our story time really long. That's the coach there. Some mornings we'll say, okay, higher belts, you have to let the lower belt start wherever they want. So these white belt girls who are younger than me, probably stronger than me, can say, okay, I would like to start on your back with like about ready to choke you or I would like to start like on top of you.JulieAnd so then I have to work on my escapes and they get a chance to like, work on submissions and things. And so then when I get out, they're like, Man, that was so easy for you to get out. And I want to say, shut your mouth. It was not it was it was terrible. I was fighting for my life.JulieThat's like you think that it looked easy, but it was terrible for me. Like I hated it. Yeah. You know, so sometimes we look at people's content that's good, and we're like, Oh, but that's so easy for them. They just created that and it looked great. But you don't know that they're kind of fighting for their lives or have done that.JulieMany reps are working so hard to make it look that easy. So I think the same to you. People probably saw your presentation. Oh well, this is easy for them, but they don't know what it took behind the scenes to make it look effortless. Right.KevinAnd I, I think if you're a good presenter in any medium, you always are thinking about the audience experience and how they're absorbing it. And the podcast. I just feel like there's I mean, hopefully you're, you know, mowing the lawn, taking a walk, cooking dinner, like this is a great medium to do something else. At the same time.KevinSo it's like this and, and that's length and consistency mean that again, if you're sitting down on your couch with your popcorn and watching this, please don't tell me if you are, because I want to get you something special. I'll buy you popcorn for a year or something if that's actually what's happening. But there just seems like less pressure versus a straight for the same thing happens with the summit content.KevinIt is like you have to put time aside and it's not for me anyway. It's not repetition or practice of the content. It's the constant someone sitting in a seat that may or may not be comfortable after sitting in it for 4 hours. And I want to make sure that the visual payoff as much as possible of what I'm talking about connects or translates or adds something extra and isn't just like, anyway, I just yeah, it's hard.KevinI think content is hard. And you write thousand out the 10,000. I mean, should I should do the math. But if you average six or 7 hours a day talking to people times almost ten years now, I guess talking is not the hard part for me.AndrewYou know.KevinAll right, on to the news and we will try to keep those types of the episode doesn't go forever. MarketWatch dot com mortgage rates could hit 8% economists say, citing a worrying sign not seen since the Great Recession. The 30 year rate is at a critical stage. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told MarketWatch.KevinThis is confusing to a lot of people. I feel like we've talked about a couple of times, but just for clarity, the Federal Reserve changes short term rates, the rest of the bond market and Treasury market adjusts based upon supply and demand for different lengths of maturities. The most important one for mortgages is the ten year Treasury note, so that has its own pricing that is not directly impacted by the Fed.KevinThere's a there's a correlation, but it's not directly affected. And then there is a risk premium that people who give money for mortgages want. So the ten year is considered a very safe investment. Unless the US government ceases to exist, they pay their debt by making more money, which is a whole other topic out of thin air. But you're going to get your money from that ten year Treasury bond.KevinSo if people are default on a mortgage, there's a risk that that could occur, especially when the market in the future doesn't look as rosy. And so the the Delta between the ten year and what mortgage rates are at is known as a risk premium. That risk premium and the ten year are both expanding. And that's why even though rates haven't changed very much, they're still headed up and may go headed higher.KevinSo in some sense, before we get into really the the full article, it's it's kind of I would say it is really smart people who have a lot of money at risk saying I think in the near term there is maybe a slightly higher likelihood of people being foreclosed on or loans not being paid back. And so I want more profit basically from the loan to cover potential losses.KevinSo that's that's why that that spread is so important to watch and understand. Anything else in this article that that you all.JulieKnow the I thought it was interesting that they were talking about don't expect the higher rates to hurt home prices. So some people may think, oh, because rates are going up and less people are going than your home prices are going to go down. They said that the that will only happen if the job market, if people are losing their jobs and then that would be when that would happen.JulieSo I thought that was an interesting point.AndrewYeah, it's so interesting. I mean, you know, different local Facebook groups and there's still this weird like thought that like everything is going to crash and people are waiting to buy for this inevitable crash and maybe people want Why would you want that? Like, that's so psychotic. Like what I want the world to be like. They want like, a recession, Great Recession.AndrewI'm like, what is wrong with you? First of all? Like, it's not going to happen.KevinBecause it's going to affect everyone else. They'll be unaffected.AndrewThey'll be unaffected. They'll still have their job perfect, and there'll be any change they could just scoop up a house half the price, what it is now. But so that's just it's interesting that I don't know. That's a common thought, but it definitely seems a somewhat common thinking. But just looking at this one part here, it's like he noted that monthly mortgage payment for a median priced home in 2019 was 1100.AndrewToday, at 8%, that payment would be over 2300.KevinSo that does not include taxes and interest, I believe.AndrewBut then you need to go like, well, those people who didn't buy it either time, what is their rent? Right. It could be 2823 is better than 28. So I'm saying that like this seems very doom and gloom, but like knowing people in our lives that are younger, like, Oh, but in house. Yeah, yeah. I'm like, can I have some details?AndrewYou know, like, I do stuff like, and every single person went down at least 2 to $300 renting to now owning a home. So my Oh, okay, cool. Now they are fortunate, like their career wise, they both had higher income established jobs, so they're both like they made 100 combined income, not not each, but like both. So they able to save up some money.AndrewAnd then both for Ira, both had down payment assistance from the county. Yeah. Which is more interesting. But prices were both met for hundreds for their homes.KevinBeth Russell sharing screenshots of articles, talking about how housing has just become completely like it's I forget the exact headline, something about no one can afford to buy anymore. And what's interesting, I just replied back quickly like that also means people can't afford to sell. And so that, you know, if rates continue to go higher, I think there will be fewer sellers until, to Yoon's point, people have job losses.KevinBut until that point just means there's going to be fewer existing homes on the market and builders are always going to have something for sale.AndrewSo more houses be perfect. Yeah. Builders, there's the supply.KevinAll right. Up next, this is a I really want to talk about this one, even if it's the last one we do. I don't care from geek it Slate.com don't discount the merits of a friction ful transaction. This is written by Drew Myers, the guy I've got to know over the last year and a half or so. Really good guy.KevinFriction is good. Not bad. At least in the residential real estate context. And he goes on to cite all of these different tools, services, platforms that want to make moving it at the push of a button easy. And then he's like, should it be easy? Are you going to make a great decision? If purchasing a home is as easy as ordering light bulbs off Amazon?KevinShould it should it should something that impacts your life so, so severely is a real benefit to having that be frictionless at point.JulieI don't think friction less should be the goal. I think figuring out where the friction should be and where the friction should be in places where we strategically want to slow the process down. So there should be parts of the process that we want to go quickly and easily and parts where we want that friction because we need people to slow down and not just to make the right decision.JulieBut you also can't build a relationship with somebody which sometimes you need to know because, you know, if you want to do more personalization or you want to listen or you want to find out what they want, you're going to have to slow that part down or it's not going to happen. So I think it's just being more strategic about where it needs to go fast and where it needs to go slow and leave the friction in those places.JulieWe need to slow it down.KevinRight. I think his argument here is a somewhat moral, you know, he goes into credit cards are easy and there's lots of studies that show if you pay in cash versus a credit card, you're going to you're going to be making smarter financial choices overall. And so he's like over half a century of cognitive science. And studies have shown that people who do multitask or move quickly.KevinAnd so then he's like, I promise buyer solutions to both with one seamless experience of here's the house for you. It's perfect in every way. Push the button. It's yours. And he's like, Should this desk be compressed to make it as easy to drop 200 grand or $2 million on a house? As easy as it is to drop a $5 bill on some other product or service.AndrewI would like.KevinThis is how he says. I don't buy the idea that people need or even want to buy houses with a single tap on their phone. Sequencing steps helps buyers minimize the chances of a poor investment decision with their hard earned dollars.AndrewI think this is my bias, or maybe this is what I think I don't. People are being polite by using the word frictionless by saying I think that transactional cost to sell and buy a home is absurd, right? Like if you were to sell.KevinThat is true. A lot of it is focused on like.AndrewHodling, like realtors, then like, hey, is there a way to get rid of this percentage? Or maybe you should shift that money to like, Hey, the inspection needs more money behind it and we could have a better inspection for a used home and more emphasis on that versus this kind of general contractor bringing in different trades to get it done.AndrewAnd they're the ones making the most money on the transaction. I don't if that. So, Drew, if you're listening, maybe have a part two of transact, you know, what we should is the same.KevinThing or something and see if he wants to come on some time on, I guess, episode. But one example would be like inspections, housing inspections. Is it really in the buyer's interest to waive those or to let's say that there's a company that says we'll do an AI powered inspection utilizing large amounts of data and we'll just estimate a likely cost of repairs.KevinJust so you have a sense of it. You can either push a button and get that for two bucks or you can wait 72 hours to have for a week to have an actual in-person inspection. Now, I'm not saying take away the optionality for the buyer because that's a negotiation tactic of I'm not going to require that. But all things being equal, just like, is it better to walk through physically the space that you're about to purchase or do it virtually, which is like and this goes like, we are really quick to give away the best option for just one that's better or good enough.KevinAnd I think that's kind of what you're saying. Julie There's there's things where we should always be optimizing to just the best and maybe a good enough in some areas is okay. But I if, if my one of my four kids goes to buy a house that's 25 years old and like, Hey dad, we're going to waive inspections, I'd be like.AndrewNo, you're not.JulieWell, And sometimes it takes a human to explain that, you know what I mean? Like the giving option just on an automated system is different than having a person telling you what the differences in those two choices are.KevinRight? I've even had people tell me, like, I waved my it's like, no matter what happens with the inspection, I can't get out of the contract, so I'm not going to do an inspection and like, you're nuts. Why would you still not want to know?AndrewThey still know.KevinYou may not be a reason to get out of the contract, but at least now you know for planning before you show up, you move in and try to take a bath in the tub, falls through the second floor. I think you would want to still know. I mean.AndrewYeah, all the hurricane things are missed very commonly. Even a newbuilds like, right, Matt Then insurance like that. That sounds terrifying. Hurricane coming. You're like, I wish we got an inspection. Make sure the straps and all that stuff is done correctly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's. I do both. All right, next your question.KevinI mean, it's it's a good thought process and I and I agree that we should be going after the best which might have a little bit of friction but if it's if it's in everyone's best interest and that kind of goes back to like the whole e-commerce ification of our industry I think is a little bit overplayed, not not totally, but a little bit from Reuters.com.KevinEvergrande Remember them files for us Bankruptcy protection as China economic fears mount. So this isn't just a story about Evergrande, which is your remember the place that had like was a 15 or nine towers imploded that were partially built.AndrewA billion.KevinGhost cities. We talked all about this a couple of years ago I think now well they're back the the whole real estate market and China's a mess. Trusts aren't paying out the funds that they're supposed to be. There's people protesting again. So that's interesting in and of itself that it's real estate that's having an issue there. But also just generally a lot of the global economies now are headed towards a recession or a severe decline in activity from where they have been.KevinAnd China is typically a big economic engine. So even if you believe in the soft landing theory of what's going to happen to the U.S. market broadly, there's always a statement of, you know, in China, when China sneezes, the U.S. catches a cold, vice versa, like these two really big economies, there is this global impact. And so Europe's doing poorly, Japan's doing poorly, China is doing poorly.KevinAnd a sense that even if things are great here, you're going into the end to the end of this year, early next year. Just kind of general economic activity in the world is not good. And that's quick aside, sorry I'm talking so much on this one, everyone. But I was having this conversation of someone was saying, Kevin, how do you feel about the housing market over the next 12 to, 24 months?KevinAnd here's here's my main thing is I can't think of in the stock market language, they call it a catalyst like is the stock going to go up or down? There needs to be some new piece of information that is a catalyst for change. I can't think of very many positive catalysts except for the one we just mentioned of existing homes not being available, but they're already not really available in most markets.KevinSo it might get a little bit better if rates go higher and less are available for us. Maybe. But it's almost like all of the good catalysts have already happened or are in play like now. Homes are available. Pricing in a lot of cases have adjusted or come down. And so then there's like the market catalysts that I, I can't really foresee.KevinBut if you can think of any show it did you convert dot com or just reach out to us on social channels. We'd love to hear your thoughts. And then the second thing is from a marketing perspective, even if the market's not doing great as a marketer, if there is some new thing that we could all be working on that always of ups the energy level of like, okay, well we can't do this, this and this, or we can go do this thing that's new and different.KevinAnd there is a little bit of that. And certainly the focus that Julie is helping with with her book on on content is a big piece of it. But again, in terms of a brand new kind of like we've all known we needed to do content well for a long, long time.AndrewYeah.KevinJulie's book is a great resource to help us do that better. People are budget, more money to it, but it's not like a completely brand new catalyst thought of this is really going to ignite something. So I think that's why I'm just generally I kind of like, enjoy what you got, why you got it. Keep getting better, keep your eye on the ball, work hard.KevinAll right. All the phrases from oh, yeah, something else.AndrewAll the phrases, all the phrases there. Keep going.KevinFrom Zillow.com. First home ownership surges. Half of all home buyers are making their first purchase. Half of all home buyers are purchasing their first home, the highest share that Zillow has ever recorded. And for Housing Trends Report finds that first time buyers now make up 50% of all home buyers, up from 45% last year, and a meaningful jump from 37% in 2021.KevinThat's really interesting to me.AndrewYeah. Trump on the age group they had is that millennials, which are 29 to 43 year olds, that's not what we think of young people, right?KevinRight. But they haven't been buying homes. Yeah. So these aren't large numbers until recently.AndrewYoung people.KevinYes. I just think I find it ironic that when in an era of affordability being the main reason slash excuse that people say why homes aren't selling, people can't buy that. It's first time buyers that make up 50%. What do you think?JulieWell, it's it's also what you what you know, if you don't know if you're coming into this market and it's the first time you've bought. I just now Googled we bought our first little condo in 2001 and I just Googled. So I don't know how accurate this is. That said, the rate's average 7.24%. Like they were terrible. We didn't know any different.JulieIt's different this time around because they were down to three and they came up to this. And so it's news. But also if they weren't already in a home with a 3% interest rate. So it is to just speaking to your audience and realizing that not every single person you're talking to is currently in a house with a 3% mortgage rate.JulieThere's people paying cash. There's, you know, first time homebuyers, There's all these other people who are also in the market that we also need to speak to.KevinThat takes us back to where we keep talking about on all of our calls with our with our builder partners and on leadership calls is right now the market is being driven by the four D's death. Diamond's divorce and diapers like that's regardless of where affordability is to your point. Like those are the reasons that you're saying okay.KevinWe're going to buy a house or need a change in our in our situation. GREEN No. All right. Favorites.AndrewFavorites. So let's say what's not what's not my favorite way.KevinWe started this new last time. It doesn't have to be a favorite anymore. It could be just something that's really pissing you off.AndrewOh, well, this is perfect, then. This boom stand is pissing me off. If you've seen me, me, myself. And because it keeps fun, it keeps falling down. So I have a new one that Amazon said. Your shipments arriving late or something. Supposed to be here this morning. I'm like, Oh, I arrive here at 7:11 a.m.. Perfect. It's one this one is like it's blue.AndrewThe blue brand. I think they make a fake out. They make microphones and stuff. It's like a hundred bucks, but it's tension based. So it's like the weather affects it and humidity, for whatever reason is super annoyance. I just bought one that's like you just lock it in because it really doesn't move. I'm excited to replace it. This thing is super annoying.AndrewDon't buy it. It's awful. Well, it's.KevinOne of those things. It's not a buy once. Try once deal with Julie. I thought that would be sad that she bought her camera. But it is one of those things like arm. I had the same challenge, but there's a tension adjustment piece on it.AndrewYeah, but.KevinFor the last year I have not bothered to mess with. I'm just like the things slowly would float up and it would annoy me and I'd push it back down and it would stay there for 5 minutes and then slowly float back up. Just having the right equipment is half the battle. It's worth it almost every time. And then the second is just taking the time again to take care of it like I talked about before.KevinBut yeah, that's.AndrewIt's so someone wants to.JulieMine are homework helpers this year for math he has homework helpers. We're basically has the same worksheet that he's working on that shows you what you're supposed to do without the answers on it. Thank goodness, because I was having to google everything. And it's not that it's like hard stuff. It just doesn't make any. It just I've never seen it laid out like that and I have no idea how to help them.JulieSo thank goodness already we're like two weeks into school and I'm already having to like, go to the homework helpers and figure out what in the heck they're talking about. So I'm having homework so I.AndrewLearn rational numbers and irrational numbers whole. Yeah, I'm like, I don't.JulieKnow, like, yes, I'm like, Wait, I don't know what they're asking. So that's been my go to this week.KevinLet's see what I'm going to is going to pick some app on my phone that I think that I use that I think most people may not have. There's one called Sunshine Birthdays. You've all seen this before. That's Marissa mayer of former Yahoo Fame. That's her company. And what it does is it lets you log in and connect all of your different accounts and just create a single source of truth, people's birthdays.KevinIt also does the same thing for contacts. So it's kind of like an iCloud. That's not Apple only, but it'll go to all of your social networks, your Gmail, whatever, and your calendars already, and then it'll say, Hey, there's three different birthdays or three different profiles for Andrew. Pete, do you want to consolidate them? Is this the right day?KevinIt's one of those small little things that and then it reminds you, you can look at it easily a week in advance or a mother of and Sue's birthdays are coming up. They're their play, as you know. They make it really easy to order someone something if you want to through the app. But it's just one of those nice little things that you're like, this is just helpful to not not miss birthdays anymore.AndrewDoes it go through like does it prefer Amazon as far as like it tries to sync it to Amazon, like get you to buy? The reason I'm saying the best purchases from you have this really cool experience and then they get like the affiliate money from pushing all these transactions from their app. So I'm like, Oh, that's genius.AndrewLike, let's make it easy for people to shop for birthdays. We make money by being affiliate with all these different e-commerce companies.KevinI might have spoke too quickly there. I thought an option to send presents, but what I'm getting now is just ordering cards or cards.AndrewOh, they go.KevinIt's probably just through their on experience.AndrewIt's pretty cool. Yeah. Yeah. It is a hard to remember.KevinSomething and it's called sunshine. It'll brighten your day.AndrewI think. Sunshine.KevinAll right, that'll do it for season one of marketing. Of marketing. Be sure to join us for the beginning of season two next week. We'll see you then.JulieSee. The post Ep 300: Good Content Looks Effortless appeared first on Online Sales and Marketing for Home Builders - DYC.

More homeless people have been created due to the housing supply crisis. Homelessness is up 11% since last year, per the WSJ. The opioid crisis, consumer inflation, and NIMBYism have contributed too. California has the most homelessness on both a total and per capita basis. States with higher housing costs have more homeless people. I share our poll results: “Should we pay to house the homeless?” Are you a NIMBY? We find out today. We can increase housing supply with rezoning, construction training, and lower mortgage rates. The cycle of investor emotions led to wild investing manias. It was tulip bulbs in the 1600s Netherlands and Beanie Babies in the 1990s United States.  I discuss exactly why “buy low, sell high” is more difficult than it sounds. Timestamps: The correlation between homelessness and the housing market [00:00:00] Discusses the relationship between the housing market and the increasing problem of homelessness in America. Investing manias and lessons from history [00:00:00] Explores the phenomenon of investing manias and the lessons that can be learned from historical examples. The tight inventory market conditions and potential solutions [00:04:56] Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, discusses the tight housing market conditions and suggests tax incentives to increase housing supply. Timestamp 1 [00:10:32] Affordability of moving to different cities and the proposal of a tax incentive for real estate investors. Timestamp 2 [00:11:49] Discussion on the housing supply crisis, mortgage rates, and the homeless population in the US. Timestamp 3 [00:14:14] Increase in homelessness in America, reasons behind it, and the correlation between housing prices and homelessness rates. The impact of high density housing on quality of life and home value [00:21:12] Discussion on the potential negative effects of building high density housing near single family homes, including reduced home value, increased traffic and noise, and loss of nearby open space. Alternative solutions to increase housing supply and reduce homelessness [00:23:30] Exploration of alternative measures to address homelessness, such as trade training for the homeless and relaxing excessive safety requirements in home building. Giving real change to the homeless [00:25:50] Encouragement to give directly to homeless shelters or soup kitchens instead of giving small change to individuals on the street, with the concept of "give real change not small change" explained. Note: The timestamps provided are approximate and may vary slightly depending on the podcast episode. The Origins of Tulip Mania [00:31:37] Tulips were introduced to Europe in the 1500s and became a luxury item for the affluent. The cultivation of tulips locally in the Netherlands led to a flourishing business sector. The Tulip Bubble [00:32:55] By 1634, tulip mania had swept through the Netherlands, with the demand for tulip bulbs exceeding supply. Prices reached exorbitant levels, and futures contracts were being bought and sold. Lessons from Tulip Mania [00:37:53] Tulip mania serves as a model for financial bubbles, with similar cycles observed in other speculative assets like beanie babies, baseball cards, NFTs, and stocks. It highlights the dangers of excess, greed, and speculation without tangible value. The cycle of investor emotions [00:44:32] Explanation of the different stages of investor emotions, from optimism to panic, in relation to stock market investing. The peak of the stock market [00:46:43] Discussion on the peak of the stock market being the point of maximum financial risk and the difficulty of selling at the right time. Real estate as a stable investment [00:51:56] Comparison of real estate investment to speculative bubbles, highlighting the stability and income stream provided by real estate. Explains how the integration of HOA (Homeowners Association) helps maintain uniformity and cleanliness in the rental property investing world. Details about the upcoming real estate event [00:38:31] Promotion of a live event where listeners can learn about new construction fourplexes and have their questions answered in real time. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/463 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Welcome to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. America's homeless problem has become FRIGHTENING. I describe how that correlates… with the housing market.  Then, investing MANIAS. What drives people to spend more for one tulip flower bulb than they would for an entire luxury home?    And lessons you can learn that'll benefit you the rest of your life from other manias throughout history. All today, on Get Rich Education.   ___________   Welcome to GRE! From Seaford, DE to Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of America's longest-running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. Along with plenty of ongoing hot takes on wealth mindset and the real estate economy.    I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.    See, the crash in the SUPPLY of available American homes is bad and it isn't just creating more upward prices, it's a contributor to homelessness.    Let's talk about some of the drivers of homelessness, understand the problem a little more, how many homeless people ARE there in America, and then… what can we do about it?   As you'll soon see, one prominent real estate industry influencer actually suggests that you actually SELL your rental single family homes in order to help serve the homeless. More on that shortly.    Also, I have the results from a GRE Instagram Poll. The poll question is: “Should we pay to HOUSE the homeless?”    And the answers that you - the GRE listeners gave… actually surprised me. I'll give you those super-interesting poll results later, because I have more to explain there.   But first, what IS a homeless person? Let's define it. I think most anyone knows that since it's a person without a home, it's thought of as living on the street.   Really, then, that person might not be homeless but “houseless” in a literal sense. Even if they live in a tent under a bridge, that is then, their home. Though it might be INADEQUATE housing.   More accurately, the unsheltered or undersheltered population could be more apropos.     Then there's vagrancy. A vagrant is defined as a person without a settled home OR regular work… who wanders from place to place and lives by begging.   So vagrants are PART of the homeless population then. This all helps DEFINE what we're discussing.   Now, the lack of available American housing supply - especially the affordable segment - is OBVIOUSLY a big contributor to homelessness.   For example, anymore, how many builders even construct a new-build entry-level home for $200 or 250K? Practically nobody… anywhere.   And just how bad is the supply problem now? Well, the NAR has been tracking housing supply since 1982 and it just hit its lowest level ever this summer - EVER - and that's in 40+ years of tracking.    That's one reason why just last week, it was announced that Warren Buffett is making a big bet on housing by investing in homebuilders.   Now to keep consistent with the same stats I've been reporting to you for you, to update that, again 1-and-a-half million available homes is the baseline supply. That's the long-term “normal” per the FRED Active listing count.   And through last month, it's still under 650,000. That is STILL a housing SUPPLY crash of 57% from its peak of 1 ½ million.   I want you & I to listen to this upcoming piece together. This recent interview with NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is from the 8th of this month.   Yes, HE is the one that basically wants you to sell your SF rental properties. And he makes his case for an inducement to get you to do this. (Ha!)   He's not proposing anything COMPLETELY ludicrous. It's REALLY interesting. Listen closely for that.   This about 5 minutes in length and there's a lot of material here within this clip - a nutrient dense piece, so I've got SO much to say about this when I come back to comment.    [Yun clip]    Yeah, the NAR Chief Economist there talking about how, much like I have for years, great opportunity is in the Midwest and Southeastern parts of the US.    With this greater ability for people to work from anywhere, when people move in from the pricy coasts, it's sooo affordable to them.   Moving from Manhattan to Cincinnati feels incredibly affordable.  Moving from San Francisco to St. Louis feels like you've upgraded from serfdom to a kingdom. Moving from Boston to Jacksonville feels like a total life makeover.   That's why, here at GRE, we're focused on properties in those INbound destinations.    Before I continue, especially for those outside the US, I know that it seems a little odd that Ohio and Indiana are in what we call the Midwest when they're actually in the northeastern quadrant of the nation.   But the fact that they ARE midwestern states is rooted in history and in cultural tradition.   So, getting back some new angles on the housing supply crisis.   Lawrence Yun proposed that a tax incentive be introduced to unleash the inventory of SF rentals from individual REIs.    And says that there are over 20 million single-family housing units that are rented out.    If we reduced or canceled the capital gains tax & just got 1% of that inventory on the market, he states that that would help.   Well, yeah, but even that then would only put about 200,000 units of the market - and they'd get snatched up so fast.   Now, if mortgage rates come down to say, 5%, it would unleash both housing demand AND supply.    Both - like Lawrence Yun says. So it's not apparent that that would help this shortage, if both demand and supply go up.   In a nation of about one-third of a BILLION people now - that's how I like to express it this year - America now has one-third of a billion people… also known as 333 million - how many do you think are classified as homeless?   As you think about that - as you think about how many of America's 333 million Americans are homeless, this homeless population figure that I'm about to share with you is from HUD and it's through last year, so it's their latest year-end figure.    And I'll tell ya, it's hard to believe this number. The Department of Housing and Urban Development states that about 582,000 Americans are experiencing homelessness.   Now, how HUD does this is that their number is a snapshot of the homeless population as of a single night at the end of January each year.    The total number of people who experience homelessness for SOME PERIOD each year will be higher than that.   I just did the math and then that means that just 1 in every 572 Americans are homeless. C'mon. Do you believe that? Only one in every 572 Americans are homeless?   I might believe that it's something like more than 1 in 200. What are your thoughts?   Even HUD would probably concede that there are shortcomings in that stat and that it's only a starting point.   And over the last decade, according to HUD, the homeless population is little changed… apparently until just this past year.   Homelessness is surging in America. The number of people experiencing homelessness in the US has increased 11% so far this year over 2022. That would be the biggest jump by far in equivalent government records beginning in 2007.   Now this 11% homeless jump is according to a WSJ analysis of hundreds of smaller & local agencies.    Most  agencies say the alarming rise is because of the lack of affordable housing and rental units, and the ongoing opioid crisis.   Inflation is part of that affordable housing problem. Inflation widens the disparity between the haves and have-nots.   To cut some slack to census-type of surveying, homelessness can be hard to measure. Some live on skid row, some live in the woods, some homeless people live in their cars.    Some aren't interested in being counted. Others are essentially invisible. I mean, if someone's between jobs and needs to couch surf at their aunt and uncle's place for three months, are they homeless or not? So, to be sure, there's a lot of leeway in those numbers.   One in 572 as homeless - that should just be a minimum - a starting point in my opinion.   Now, homelessness broken down by STATE is really interesting.   California at 171,000, has the most of any state, more than double of next-most New York, and then Florida is third.   But let's break that down by rate - on a per capita basis. So… think of this as the highest CONCENTRATION of homeless:   Washington DC has 65 homeless per 10,000 people. That's not really a state though, so…   #1 on a per capita basis is STILL California, with 44 per 10,000. So California leads in the nation in homeless on both bases then - both absolute and relative.   The second highest rate is Vermont.  Third Oregon Fourth Hawaii Fifth is New York And then numbers 6 through 10 on the most homeless per capita are Washington, Maine, Alaska, Nevada, and Delaware.   Now, strictly anecdotally. You've probably seen just what I've seen in the last year-plus - more visible homeless people in your city and other cities.   The state with the FEWEST homeless of all 50 states is Mississippi - and see, housing is quite affordable there. MS is one of the most affordable states for housing.    There is at least SOME correlation between your cost of housing and homelessness.   Recently on our Instagram page, and the handle there is easy to remember - it's @getricheducation - if you want to participate in future polls, we ran a poll on homelessness.   Here is the poll question that we ran - and I'd like you to think about your answer to this too.   “Should we pay to house the homeless?”    That's the question.    And in polling, the way that the question is phrased, of course, can skew your answer.    See, if instead, we phrased it as, “Should the government house the homeless?” you might have more ‘yes' answers - even though it's the same question - because you FUND the government.    But the question as we phrased it: “Should we pay to house the homeless?” - it also showed a photo of vagrants on a street curb under the question.   Here we the results, which surprised me, to:  Should we pay to house the homeless?   Those answering “Yes” were just 6% The no's were 45% But we also had a third option: “It's complicated”. 48% answered with that option.   So again, just 6% of you said we should pay to house the homeless and 45% said “no”. “48% said it's complicated”.   In a way, that makes sense to me since we have a largely entrepreneurial, self-made type of audience. I thought that might have happened.   But what surprised me is in how emphatic it was. It was a landslide. 7 to 8 TIMES as many of you said we should not pay for the homeless as those that said we should.   Well, the reason that I added - and I'm the one that ran the poll myself - they're quick to do. I added the paying to house the homeless “It's complicated” option because it IS complicated… that WAS the most popular answer.   I mean, why should you go to work and pay to house a stranger that has no income because he or she doesn't want to work?   But what if they're disabled and they can kinda work but not really work… or a zillion other complications.    Substance abuse is obviously a big problem that keeps homeless people homeless… and there's a substantial thought paradigm that says, if they're an abuser, then why would I pay for THEIR housing?   Substance abuse is just one reason that there is a population that's VOLUNTARILY homeless. They don't want to have to comply with a group home's ban on substances.    I wanted to address the homeless problem somewhat today, because here we are on Episode 463 of a real estate show and this is the most that we've even discussed it.   I think the perspective it gives you is that it helps you be grateful for what you've got.    But it's abundance mentality here. You can be grateful for what you have and at the same time, grow your means.   What else would help with more housing supply which would also move us toward mitigating the homeless problem?   Well, we've already discussed a number of them so I'll only go in depth with some fresh angles here.   Obviously, more homebuilding. We've done episodes on how 3D printed homes and shipping container homes are not quick, easy answers. Tiny homes might be but then you could get into a zoning density problem again.   Just last week, my assistant brought me this Marketwatch article that reported that the average American home size is shrinking just a little & that often times, new-build houses tend to be a little closer together.   That's what gets us into relaxing zoning requirements. But you know something, OK, this is going to be interesting.    This plays into NIMBYism. Not In My Backyard: communities saying that they don't want high-density housing built next to them.    Now, I think that there are a lot of critics of NIMBYism. But the criticism comes from people that live far out of that area and aren't affected.   Let me just play a fun little experiment with you here. Let me paint a picture of a fictitious life for you and just… place yourself there.   Say that you live in a nice single-family home, with a quarter acre lot. It's not a sprawling estate but you've got a good measure of privacy that way.   You're in a SFH, quarter-acre lot and two car garage. That is classic suburbia.   And… just a hundred yards away from your home there's a big, wide-open field where you walk your dog and use as a little makeshift golf driving range or whatever. Nice open space nearby.   Say you've got a fairly idyllic life here. It's always been this way since you bought the home years ago.   Suddenly, in your neighborhood of all SFHs, you learn that they want to build a bunch of fourplexes in the nearby lot where you used to throw tennis balls to your dog.   What can that do to your quality of life & your home's value, now that a bunch of new fourplexes and eightplexes were built nearby?   It reduces your home's value because there are less valuable, high density properties nearby.   It also increases the amount of traffic & even noise in your neighborhood. Now you can't use that nearby park anymore - it's been all-built up with these higher-density apartments.   So, let me go back and ask - point blank - did you really want all those new high-density developments near your home?   If that made you uncomfortable, that's NIMBYism. So it's quite natural to evoke that feeling type. You're just a human being.   How else can we increase housing supply to help reduce homelessness?   NOT with rent control. Over time, capping the amount of rent that a LL can charge gives property owners no incentive to improve their property and neighborhoods end up dilapidated.   We need more training for tradesman and laborers. How about training the homeless for that? But then someone's got to pay for that training.   Another measure that's become ridiculous is that we've gotta relax these excessive safety requirements in homebuilding. Now, some safety is good.   But when every single home - entry-level and all needs to have fire-rated shingles and fired-rated doors and GFCI outlets and smoke detectors in every room and carbon monoxide detectors all over the place, sheesh! Well, that raises the cost of housing for everyone.   In some earthquake-prone areas, you've got to have seismic restraining straps on your water heater or you can't even sell your home. Do you know how big of an earthquake it would take to damage your water heater like that?   And an excessive safety PROPONENT might say, yeah, but did you hear about that one family that died ten years ago that would have lived if they had carbon monoxide detectors?   Well, the counterargument to that is, yeah, but what about all the homeless people that were exposed to the elements and died in the cold because they couldn't AFFORD the more basic housing, the prices of which have escalated for all this excessive safety stuff.   Are you saying a middle class person's life is worth more than a poor, homeless person's life? That's the counterargument.    Again, some safety is good. But we've gone overboard in too many places - in housing & beyond.   Rising housing costs keep people homeless. A few weeks ago, I did that episode about escalating insurance costs.   I now own some properties that have extremely low mortgage rates and the insurance has gone up to the point where I pay more in monthly escrow expenses than I do principal & interest.    But, hey. I'm not homeless, and if you're listening to this, neither are you.   So when it comes to helping the homeless in the short-term, that campaign called, “Give real change, not small change.” - that really resonates with me.   Don't give 5 bucks to a vagrant on the corner. That just keeps them showing up at that corner, plus they're going to spend your 5 bucks on a cheap bottle of Monarch vodka.   Instead, if you're going to give, give to a homeless shelter or soup kitchen.    That's what's meant by “Give real change, not small change.” And that's something actionable.   Coming up next, investing MANIAS. How wild it gets - paying more for a tulip flower than a SFH, shooting and killing someone over a Beanie Baby toy… and then I'm going to wrap it all up with what all this has to do with the cycle of your investor emotions.   Around here, we don't run ads for the Swiffer. This week's sponsors that support the show are people that I've personally done real estate business with myself and have benefited from.    Ridge Lending Group specializes in INVESTMENT property loans in nearly all 50 states. Start your prequalification at: RidgeLendingGroup.com    Then, for super-passive real estate returns, check out Freedom Family Investments. Right now, what you can do, is just text “FAMILY” to 66866.   I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education. ___________ Welcome back to the GRE Podcast. I'm your host and my name is Keith Weinhold.    If you've got a friend or family member that you think would benefit from the knowledge drops here on the show, you can simply tell them to grab the free Get Rich Education mobile app.   That's a convenient option for listening every week for both iOS and Android.   Today's topics of homelessness and investing manias could very well bring a new audience here, so…    A little more about my backstory. I'm from PA but got my real estate comeuppance in Anchorage, Alaska of all places & grew out nationally & internationally from there. I had humble beginnings and wasn't born anywhere near wealthy. I had to figure out how to build it myself.   But see, if I were born wealthy, I wouldn't have learned how to build it, and then I wouldn't be of much help to you. Likewise, if you're building it yourself, you'll be able to help others too.   BTW, I was born in the same PA town as Taylor Swift.    Though she & I don't have much ELSE in common, I guess that she & I are both best-known for using a microphone.   Though I think that I'm about as likely to start using this microphone to sing into your ears like Taylor Swift does… as Taylor is to launch a real estate investing show.   For hundreds of years, the tulip has been one of the most-loved flowers in the Netherlands. It's an enduring icon - as synonymous with the country as clogs, windmills, bicycles, and cheese. The tulip has a long and storied history - including the infamous shortage in the 1600s known as “tulip mania”. If you're someone that has even a fleeting interest in investing, you should at least know what this is.   Tulips first appeared in Europe in the 1500s, arriving from the spice trading routes… and that lent this sense of exoticism to these imported flowers that looked like no other flower native to the continent. It's no surprise, then, that tulips became a luxury item destined for the gardens of the affluent.  According to The Library of Economics and Liberty, “it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of [tulips].” Hmmm. Well, following the affluent, the merchant MIDDLE classes of Dutch society sought to emulate their wealthier neighbors and also demanded tulips. So to start out with, it was purchased as a status symbol for the sole reason that it was expensive. But at the same time, tulips were known to be notoriously fragile, and would die without careful cultivation. In the early 1600s, professional cultivators of tulips began to refine techniques to grow and produce the flowers locally in the Netherlands. They established a flourishing business sector that persists to this day. By 1634, tulipmania swept through the Netherlands. The Library of Economics and Liberty writes, “The rage among the Dutch to possess tulip bulbs was so great that the ORDINARY INDUSTRY of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade. Now, everyone's in - rich to poor. It's a little hard to say for sure how much people paid for tulips.  But Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, wrote an extremely popular 1841 book - you've probably heard of this book - it's called the Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds… It does give us some points of reference such that the best of tulips cost upwards of $1 million in today's money (but a lot of bulbs traded in the $50,000–$150,000 range).  By 1636, the demand for the tulip trade was so large that regular markets for their sale - like a little Dow Jones Industrial Average - got established on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam, in Rotterdam, Haarlem, and other towns. It was at that time that PROFESSIONAL TRADERS got in on the action - that's all that some people do now - is trade tulips… and everybody appeared to be making money simply by possessing some of these rare bulbs.  Dutch speculators at the time spent incredible amounts of money on bulbs that only produced flowers for a Week—many companies were formed with the SOLE PURPOSE of trading tulips.  To everyone, at the time, it seemed that the price could only go up forever. Pretty soon, demand for tulips EXCEEDED THE AVAILABLE SUPPLY of tulips by so much that people were into buying futures contracts, basically saying, I'll pay you this much money TODAY for a tulip that you provide to me in 3 years. By the last 1630s, these futures contracts were like a crack that appeared in the price runup. Demand began to wane when people were just buying a token for a future tulip that hadn't even started growing yet.  People felt like they weren't buying anything tangible anymore. That's one factor that helped create an oversupply of tulips in the market and started depressing the prices. Supply caught up with - and exceeded - demand. A large part of this rapid decline was driven by the fact that people had purchased bulbs on credit, hoping to repay their loans when they sold their bulbs for a profit. But once prices started to drop, holders were forced to sell their bulbs at any price and to declare bankruptcy in the process. So people had begun buying tulips with leverage, using margined derivatives contracts to buy more than they could afford. But as quickly as the run-up began, confidence was dashed. By the end of 1637 is when prices began to fall and never recovered.   And the bubble burst. Buyers announced that they could not pay the high price previously agreed upon for bulbs, and that made the market fall apart.  While it wasn't actually a devastating occurrence for the entire nation's economy, it did undermine social expectations. The event destroyed relationships built on trust and people's willingness and ability to pay. It's been said that “the wealthiest merchants to the poorest chimney sweeps jumped into the tulip fray, buying bulbs at high prices and selling them for even more.” Well, this is what can happen - today it happens with financialization and nothing real backing up purchases. Tulipmania is a model for the general cycle of a financial bubble. That's what happened with Dutch tulips. Now, here in more recent times, similar cycles have been observed in the price of Beanie Babies, baseball cards - I got caught up in the baseball cards as a kid, owning more than 100,000 baseball cards at one time, also non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and shipping stocks.       The example of tulipmania is now used as a parable for other speculative assets, such as cryptocurrencies today or dotcom stocks from around the year 2000. So, when you hear someone likening an investment to a Dutch tulip bulb, now you'll know what they're talking about. It's a symbol of excess, greed, and FOMO. But there has been a good bit of more modern scholarship that tells you that tulip mania did indeed occur in the 1600s Netherlands. But that the tale has been exaggerated and it's something that the upper classes of society were mostly involved in. Now, that's the Dutch tulip bubble. But for a more modern-day parable about an investing mania, there's a new movie about the rise & fall of BEANIE BABIES that's on Apple TV+. These were little stuffed, plush toy animals that became more popular among adults than children. The rise and fall of Beanie Babies—toys that people mistakenly thought would make them rich. The movie is called “The Beanie Bubble”.  It's a MOSTLY TRUE account of the lovable toys' boom and bust in the '90s -  comparable to the meme stock frenzies that took place during the Covid-19 pandemic. These $5 pellet-stuffed plush toys had astronomical appreciation estimates: Stripes the Tiger, released in 1996, was predicted by collectors to surge from $5 to $1,000 by 2008.  Forecasts like these were so enticing that one dad invested his kids' college funds in Beanie Babies, thinking he'd resell them later for a hefty profit. At the height of the frenzy, people were ruining relationships and committing felonies to get their hands on some of these sacks of fuzz. Border officials confiscated more than 8,000 smuggled Beanie Babies at a US–Canada border crossing in 1998. A West Virginia man shot and killed a former coworker in 1999 after an argument partly about $150 worth of Beanie Babies. That same year, a divorcing couple couldn't agree on how to split up their collection, so the judge made them divvy up the toys in person, right on the courtroom floor. How did that all happen? Barely anyone cared about Beanie Babies when a company called Ty Inc. launched them in 1994. Stores only got lines out the door once the toy's creator, now-billionaire Ty Warner, began pulling strings to juice demand. Here's what Warner did. OK, so here's how you induce people into a speculative bubble. He refused to stock Beanie Babies at Toys R Us and Walmart. Instead he created an illusion of rarity by only selling them at small toy stores and independent shops. Even if you did find a retailer, every store's supply of Beanie Babies was limited to 36 of each animal, so inventory restocks drew a crowd. This, combined with Warner's decision to start “retiring” certain animals in 1995, created artificial scarcity and a mass panic to stock up on Beanie Babies.  Soon, an aggressive resale market was born, replete with magazines and blogs and even trade shows for these Beanie Babies. One woman's guide to the secondary Beanie Babies market got so popular that she was selling 650,000 copies per month and, on many days, she did two or three radio interviews before her kids woke up for school. Ty Inc. later gave her an award for boosting sales. At Peak Beanie mania, Ty Inc. and legions of speculators actually made hordes of money: The stuffed animals accounted for 6% of eBay's sitewide sales in 1997 and 10% in 1998. Beanies averaged a resale value of $30—six times their retail price—but rare ones, like the Princess Diana bear, went for hundreds or thousands of dollars (and now you can find one online for $15 bucks). Ty Inc. hit $1.4 billion in sales in 1998, which is what Mattel grossed in Barbie dolls in 1995. At the end of the year, Ty Warner gave all ~250 employees holiday bonuses equal to their annual salaries. But most regular people didn't sell their Beanie Babies at their peak price. And unfortunately for them, the hype subsided. Anticipating a drop in interest as more kids reached for Pokémon and Furbies, Ty Inc. announced it would stop making Beanie Babies at the end of 1999, and that poked a hole in collectors' this-will-never-not-be-popular mentality and that sent demand plummeting. There were no underlying fundamentals to Beanie Babies' value. That's all that I've got on that speculative craze.   So let's review how this happened with both speculative crazes - Dutch tulips and Beanie Babies: Investors lose track of rational expectations. Psychological biases lead to a massive upswing in the price of an asset or a sector. A positive-feedback cycle keeps inflating prices. And soon, investors realize that they are holding an irrationally-priced asset. Prices collapse due to a massive sell-off, and an overwhelming majority go bankrupt. Now, much stock market investing is based off of buy low and sell high mentality. And stock investors can get caught up in similar crazes.    But because many stocks are tied to productive companies, the stock investor deals with smaller bubbles. A lot of times, the stock price can double, triple, or even 10X even though that company is not even profitable. Buy low & sell high. Well, that sounds easy. But why is this harder to do than it sounds? It's called the cycle of investor emotions.   It starts here with… optimism. Because you HEAR about 10% stock returns or people making money with Dutch tulips or Beanie babies.    Let's say that you aren't fully invested in the stock market. But some friends are, and they're achieving small gains.   Then comes excitement. The market is now up some more. Hey, what's in motion tends to stay in motion.   More friends are telling you how much money they're "making".    You're soon experiencing a full-blown case of FOMO—Fear Of Missing Out.   The next stage is the Thrill you feel. So you jump into the stock market fully, rationalizing with something like, "Hey, I'm a momentum investor". Sounds pretty good, I guess.   Now that you're in, it actually feels fantastic to you for a short time. You figure that some days, you're making more from stocks than your job. Winning activates dopamine.    Dopamine is a brain chemical that's known as the “feel-good” hormone. It gives you a sense of pleasure. It also gives you the motivation to DO SOMETHING when you're feeling the pleasure.    So then, you add MORE shares… at an elevated price until you are FULLY invested. Now everyone is "making money", even your Uber driver.   The next stage is Euphoria - The peak! As you can see, this is the Point of Maximum Financial Risk.    OK, now, remember the simplicity of “buy low, sell high”?   Well then, savvy stock investors should now be SELLING here in my example - at the HEIGHT.   Now be “selling”? Leaving the party at its crescendo? Stopping the dopamine flow? Yes, exactly… and THAT'S why it's so difficult.    What happens after the stock market peak? Overbought, with bloated price-to-earnings ratios, the market soon drops 10% from its recent high.    That's what's known as a correction - a drop of 10% or more. Now you feel a little ANXIETY. Your dopamine flow is stifled.   Next, you tell yourself, "I shouldn't be worried because I'm a long-term investor." It's down 15%. You're experiencing DENIAL & FEAR.   Now you're checking the Robinhood app almost hourly to see if it will recover.   Next, comes Desperation & Panic - Stocks are down 20%, that's the definition of a bear market. You're devoting more mindshare to this each day than what's healthy.   Then there's Capitulation - Down 30%, you finally surrender to a FEAR of FURTHER LOSS. You're getting so sick of months of losing. You finally do it and cash out your stocks into a safe money market fund. Now you're out.   And you rationalize and justify doing this because you tell yourself, "You know, at least when I wake up tomorrow, I'll know that I haven't lost money AGAIN. And THAT gives me certainty.”    The next stage in the Cycle of Investor Emotions is Despondency - You realize that what you've done is the polar opposite of successful investing. It's complete. You've now bought high… and then sold low.    Next, stocks completely bottom out. But this is actually the Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity. Instead, you should be buying.   But you can't. Because you're experiencing the next investor stage - Depression. You're so full of contempt for the situation that the idea of actually buying at bargain-basement levels again is simply inconceivable. You've been burnt badly.   Then, there's Hope & Relief - The market has begun ticking up after the crash. It soon should be clear that share prices are FAIRLY VALUED again.    But you don't buy the recovery story. You wait until enough price growth occurs that the confidence and Optimism stage is felt again before you'll even consider getting back in and buying.   And the entire pattern repeats.   That's the “cycle of investor emotions”. There's an average of 3-and-a-half years between each stock bear market, BTW.   Of course, we've been kind to call this all “investing”. It's more like speculating.   But here's the real problem—most investors THINK they're better than average stock pickers, so they keep playing this game. This effect has a name. It's called illusory superiority.   It's like how at least 70% of people think they're better than average drivers, despite the statistical impossibility.   Even professional money managers fall prey to this! Fewer than 10% of active U.S. stock funds manage to beat THEIR benchmarks.   The renowned British economist and value investor Benjamin Graham once said: "The investor's chief problem—even his worst enemy—is likely to be HIMSELF." Well, as real estate investors, we largely SIDESTEP the cycle of investor emotions for two main reasons.   Returns are more stable.   Real estate, we sidestep this emotional roller coaster. Not only do we have stable prices, but appreciation is one of just 5 ways that you're simultaneously paid.   RE also has monthly income. Dutch tulips or Beanie Babies don't pay you a durable monthly income stream. They don't provide an income stream at all.   And finally, RE is a REAL asset that fulfills a REAL human need.   I hope that you enjoyed this journey through speculative bubbles today and how they play into human psychology and investor emotions.   Go ahead and tell a friend about Get Rich Education.   If you've got a friend or family member that you think would benefit from the knowledge drops here on the show, you can simply tell them to grab the free Get Rich Education mobile app.   That's a convenient option for listening every week for both iOS and Android.   My name's Keith Weinhold and I'll be back with you right here… next week. Don't Quit Your Daydream!

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending July 29th, 2023… the Fed's latest rate hike, how the central bank's economic forecast has changed, and good news about the dreaded IRS “knock on the door.”   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week and a Fed meeting that resulted in yet another rate hike. The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark rate a quarter point, to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. That's the highest it's been in 22 years.    In a news conference after the meeting, Fed Chief Jerome Powell said that inflation has moderated somewhat, but the 2% target is still a ways off. He wouldn't say whether Fed officials are leaning toward another rate hike in September. He said it would be a meeting-by-meeting data-driven decision.   A few of the other highlights from the Fed Chief's press conference:   1 - The central bank is no longer expecting a recession because of higher rates. It is now predicting an economic slowdown, and a return to the “soft landing” idea. The latest report on the GDP shows the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter.   2 - The Fed keeps an eye on lending conditions and acknowledges that lending conditions are tighter and could tighten further. But as the Fed Chief commented, he doesn't expect it will be a dramatic pullback on the money supply.   Higher interest rates are giving consumers one nice reward – higher interest rates for savings accounts and CDs. As reported by MarketWatch, it's already possible to find CDs that are paying 5.75% and high-yield savings accounts that are offering more than 4%.   And to end the week on a really positive note, the Labor Department released the latest PCE report. It shows that inflation rose a tiny .2% in June. That brings the annual rate down to 3% from 3.8%. The core rate rose at the same .2% bringing the annual core rate down to 4.1% from 4.6%.   The job market remains very tight. Jobless claims were down for a third week in a row. They fell 7,000 to a total of 221,000. There was also a big drop in continuing claims. They were down 59,000 to a total of 1.69 million.    As for housing, existing home sales ticked higher for the first time in four months. The National Association of Realtor reports that contract signings were up .3% in June, although that number is still 15.6% lower than the previous June. NAR economist Lawrence Yun says the turnaround in sales indicates that the housing recession is over. He also cites increased home builder activity and a growing number of multiple offers among buyers competing for a tight supply. And that's despite high interest rates.   New home sales lost a little momentum in June. According to the Commerce Department, they fell 2.5%. This number is volatile and often revised, however.   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates held steady this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 3 basis points to 6.81%. The 15-year was up 5 points to 6.11%.   In other news making headlines…   Landlord Tenant Role Reversal for Office Leasing   Office landlords are experiencing something new in the midst of all the office leasing distress. Prospective tenants are now asking landlords for proof that their finances are stable, some are even asking for a look at their books. That's typically something that a landlord may want from a tenant, but not the other way around.   As CBRE's Mary Ann Tighe told Bisnow: “It's not enough to just say, ‘You know, we have bulletproof institutional dollars behind us. The landlords still want to know about the credit of their tenants, but the tenants now say, ‘OK, I'll show you mine. You show me yours.”   IRS Says No More Surprise Visits!   The IRS announced a major policy change regarding surprise visits from agents. It's a policy that has been in place for decades to send agency employees to homes and businesses to collect unpaid taxes or unfiled tax returns. But this past week, the IRS said that those unexpected visits will be replaced by mailed letters with a request to schedule a meeting.   The change in policy is part of an effort to transform the IRS. IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel says: “Changing this long-standing procedure will increase confidence in our tax administration work and improve overall safety for taxpayers and IRS employees.”   That's it for today. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! If you want to learn more about how you can become a wealth-building real estate investor, hit the join for free button on our website.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/fed-meeting-july-2023-.html?&qsearchterm=fed%20approved%20hike%20that%20takes https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-no-longer-sees-a-recession-and-other-things-we-learned-from-powells-press-conference-ef98d718   https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/were-already-seeing-some-cds-with-5-75-apy-now-that-the-fed-hiked-interest-rates-again-might-rates-climb-higher-de14c37f   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-increases-at-2-4-annual-pace-in-the-second-quarter-7e548aed?mod=home-page   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-slows-again-pce-shows-966aa14c?mod=economy-politics   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-to-the-lowest-level-since-february-51cea584?mod=economic-report   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s-p-case-shiller-shows-u-s-home-prices-up-for-fourth-straight-month-in-may-9190cfd0   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/newly-built-u-s-home-sales-fall-in-june-6123fd72   https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/economy/nar-economist-housing-recession-is-over   https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-housing-recession-is-over-real-estate-group-says-as-pending-home-sales-tick-up-for-the-first-time-in-4-months-2d4cce4f   https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/office/landlord-finances-owners-open-books-119930   https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/office/amazon-return-to-office-relocating-workers-major-downtown-hubs-119926   https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-ends-unannounced-revenue-officer-visits-to-taxpayers-major-change-to-end-confusion-enhance-safety-as-part-of-larger-agency-transformation-efforts    

Are starter homes a thing of the past? Did the Fed just win? I provide commentary and perspective on both. Hear clips from: Donald Trump, Jamie Dimon, and Jerome Powell. Then, I answer four listener questions: Should I make my first real estate investment a new development from raw land? Does it make sense to sell some rental properties, pay off others, and make my life easier? My returns are down because my property repair bills are higher than expected. What should I do? Since the government has high debt, won't they keep printing dollars? If you have a listener question, ask it here: GetRichEducation.com/Contact Timestamps: The state of the real estate economy [00:00:01] Home prices and housing supply [00:01:33] Analysis of home prices reaching new highs, the decrease in new listings, and the impact on housing supply. Mortgage rates and the future of interest rates [00:03:54] Insights on the direction of mortgage rates, the unlikelihood of rates returning to the 3% range, and the opinions of Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the NAR. The Fed's Soft Landing [00:10:31] Discussion on the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation and maintain economic stability. Building Development as a First Investment [00:12:49] Advice on whether it is a good idea for beginners to invest in land development and the challenges involved. Acquiring More Property or Paying Down Debt [00:19:02] Advice on whether to continue acquiring properties or pay off existing debt and downsize for a more enjoyable life. The philosophy of debt [00:21:11] Debt can be beneficial and indicate wealth, as seen in examples of successful individuals with high levels of debt. Managing repair costs for rental properties [00:24:18] Charging tenants for the first portion of repair bills can incentivize them to make minor repairs themselves and reduce long-term repair costs. Inflation and government debt [00:30:12] Inflation can debase government debt, reducing its value, similar to how it affects personal debt. The US government's ability to print money allows for easier repayment of debt. The housing supply and marketplace [00:31:30] Discussion on the historically low US housing supply and the importance of staying up to date with the inventory and other elements in the real estate market. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/459 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. First, I'll discuss the surprising state of the real estate economy. Then I answer your listener question Should I develop and build property myself? How do I keep my rental properties repair bill down? And two questions about real estate debt all today on Get Rich Education with real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. JTB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at JWB Real Estate.   Speaker 2 (00:01:01) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Speaker 1 (00:01:24) - Welcome to the area from Warsaw, Poland, to Warsaw, Indiana, and across 188 nations worldwide. And Keith Weinhold in your listening to Get Rich Education.   Speaker 1 (00:01:33) - Earlier this month, CNBC reported that home prices have hit new highs again, another up just slightly year over year, though the popular sentiment is that by now people have gotten used to paying 7% or even more than 7% mortgage rates and higher rates. That puts the squeeze on housing supply. I mean, gosh, within this era of already paltry supply, I mean, we're talking about direly few homes in some markets here. Nationally, new listings are down 25% from a year ago. All right. Now, that's all national stuff. But look now, just over half of the nation's 50 largest housing markets and they're mostly in the Midwest and Northeast. They have either returned to their prior price peaks or they have set new all time highs. Annual home prices are still weaker out west, but even some of the Western markets has slumped. They're now seeing month over month gains. Yes, we're talking about gains now even in San Jose, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. Now, look, our starter homes, a thing of the past.   Speaker 1 (00:02:47) - Some now think so with these higher prices. Just listen to this from an NAR survey, 40% of millennials who bought homes last year, they plan to stay in them 16 years or more. And for Gen Z, that number jumps up to 48%. Now, who knows if they'll really stay in those homes at that long. But see, what's going on here is just affirmation that so many buyers don't plan to trade in their starter home for a move up home. They got their starter homes when rates were low, though starter homes are not coming onto the market, potential sellers have ghosted the market, making for fewer listings and those fewer listings. That's what's fueling the price growth. So yes, starter homes could largely be a thing of the past, but of course not completely. Now, just two weeks ago here on the show, Jim Rogers told us why long term, he thinks interest rates will go much higher and opinions can be all over the place. So I don't want to get too bogged down in that.   Speaker 1 (00:03:54) - But shorter term, one prominent commentator, he is now emphatic that mortgage rates have hit their top, like, for example, hit their top for perhaps this year and next year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR on the direction of mortgage rates. He says, quote, This is the top. It will begin to move down. But you can also says if you're a US home buyer waiting for a return to super low mortgage rates, don't hold your breath. The short lived era of 3% interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages, that is over, and they are unlikely to return anytime soon, perhaps for decades. He goes on to say that one can never truly predict the future but don't see mortgage rates returning back to the 3% range in the remainder of my lifetime. That is all of what Yun said. Okay. The remainder of Lawrence Hoon's lifetime, he looks pretty healthy and that might be 40 years, 40 plus years. Did we see rates that low again, according to him? Now, did you see this? We posted this in our Instagram stories as our curious article of the week last week.   Speaker 1 (00:05:07) - The Washington Post get a hold of this title. They published an article and it was titled The Housing Market Recession is Already Ending. My preeminent thought is the housing market recession is already ending. That's a curious headline. What housing market recession? I don't get it. And the subtitle doesn't help. It's subtitled Last year's downturn in the housing market didn't last even with higher interest rates. Now prices are stabilizing. Is supply chains have eased up. All right. Well, even with actually reading the complete article, I don't know what they mean by a housing market recession last year. I guess that national home prices stopped appreciating last year and they just stabilized. But I don't know how the heck you get a recession out of that. Maybe with low housing supply, there were fewer transactions and that was being considered a recession. Now, look, I'm going to posit something really unpopular here in today's climate, but I think that this is a question that you really need to ask yourself today, and that is, did Jerome Powell just win? I told you it was unpopular.   Speaker 1 (00:06:20) - He's not a very well liked. Person in a lot of circles. But with CPI inflation at 9% last year and 3% now. Yet throughout this spin, we had a few banks that broke but no recession. Is it possible that Jerome Powell has engineered a soft landing? I've got more on that in a moment. But the actual person of one, Donald, John Trump, made some quick remarks about the economy this month. Let's listen in.   Speaker 3 (00:06:52) - We've never had an economy like we had just three years ago. It was unbelievable. And frankly, this economy is not doing well. But the reason it's doing okay is it's running on the fumes of what we built. But those fumes are running out and they're running out fast. And it's not going to be a pretty picture.   Speaker 1 (00:07:11) - Yeah, I don't know about that. When we look at the broader US economy, let's get something more substantive. And speaking of people that aren't well liked, Jamie Dimon had some great perspective. I think you know that he's the billionaire business exec and the banker that's led JPMorgan Chase since 2005.   Speaker 1 (00:07:30) - To put it another way. This man runs the largest bank in America.   Speaker 4 (00:07:36) - It's the other way around. America has the best hand ever dealt of any country on this planet today ever. Okay. And Americans don't fully appreciate what I'm about to say. We have peaceful, wonderful neighbors in Canada and Mexico. We've got the biggest military barriers ever built called the Atlantic and the Pacific. We have all the food, water and energy we will ever need. Okay. We have the best military on the planet, and we will for as long as we have the best economy. And if you're a liberal, listen closely to me in that one, okay? Because the Chinese would love to have our economy. We have the best universities on the planet. There are great ones elsewhere. But these are the best. We still educate most most of the kids who start businesses around the world. We have a rule of law which is exceptional. If you don't believe me and we talk about Britain, Brazil, Russia, India, Venezuela, Argentina, China, India, believe me, it's not quite there.   Speaker 4 (00:08:29) - We have a magnificent work ethic. We have innovation from the core of our bones. You can ask anyone in this room what you can do to be more productive. Ask your assistants, factory floors, redo it. It's not just the Steve Jobs. It's this broad death with the wires and deepest financial markets the world's ever seen. Okay. And if you. I just made a list of these things and maybe I miss something. It's extraordinary. It's extraordinary. And we have it today. Yes, we have problems. But, you know, when I hear people down, if you travel around the world, I mean, get an airplane, travel around the world and go to all these other countries and tell me what you think.   Speaker 1 (00:09:02) - Yeah, Jamie Dimon really bringing up a lot of those geographic advantages like Peterson and I discuss in depth here Diamond's remarks. They're not new remarks. Those weren't recent ones. And by the way, I don't really care for him calling out liberals, just like labeling people conservatives.   Speaker 1 (00:09:20) - That's counterproductive. I like the quality of ideas as soon as we start labeling things left or right, that quickly becomes more divisive than it does unifying. Don't do left right politics. I do. Up, down, up is integrity. The quality of your ideas concepts means for getting things done and track record. That's what matters. But anyway, coming off Jamie Dimon waxing poetic with American optimism and exceptionalism. Yeah, it is time to ask if the Fed is winning. And first, let's understand something fundamental The fact that high inflation occurred for two years that is irreparable. Let's not overlook that. I mean, you're Trader Joe's grocery store prices. They're not coming back down even if the rate of inflation has slowed. I mean, that is a big fat L, That is a loss. It came from printing all those dollars to paper over the pandemic, which created the high inflation with everything from the paycheck protection program to Stemi checks to the Cares Act. And yes, the executive branch created some of that too.   Speaker 1 (00:10:31) - But my point is, make the irresponsible people that don't have any savings feel some pain once in a while. If you just make money fall from the sky every time there's a crisis, then people are going to learn to not have any reserves or any cash flowing investments during the next crisis. Yes, supply chain constraints are part of the problem too. But since you tried to paper over the pain, see then creating that inflation that results, that makes everyone feel the pain that's middle class or below. All right. But after that understanding, is Jerome Powell now winning by landing the inflation softly without crashing the economy and keeping GDP rising a little in keeping unemployment low in see even the producers price index that's forward looking that measures this change. In selling prices of goods and services producers. That's falling out, right? That leading indicator for consumer price inflation. And that's why inflation expectations are finally dropping. And that doesn't mean that I like the Fed or the system at all. But by now you've at least got to begin to wonder if the Fed can get their soft landing.   Speaker 1 (00:11:47) - They've dropped down from 30,000 foot cruising altitude. There's no turbulence, and they're below, call it, 10,000ft. Now, for the first time in two years, wages are finally rising faster than prices.   Speaker 4 (00:12:01) - We at the Fed remain squarely focused on.   Speaker 1 (00:12:04) - Our dual mandate.   Speaker 4 (00:12:05) - To promote.   Speaker 1 (00:12:05) - Maximum employment and stable.   Speaker 4 (00:12:06) - Prices for the American people.   Speaker 1 (00:12:08) - Yes, sir. That is your job after all. Well, I want to turn to your listener questions here for the remainder of the show. And if you've got a question for me, you can always reach out at Get Rich education, slash contact. The first question comes from Tina in Monroe, Louisiana. She says, Keith, I love your show. Just started listening last month. Tina asks Keith, I have the idea of buying land and I want to know if this is a good idea to build new rentals on. Like for Plex's, I've already formed an LLC and hope to open a business line of credit, but this would be my first ever real estate investment.   Speaker 1 (00:12:49) - Okay, Tina, thanks for finding the show here. Welcome in. I expect that you'll have years of profitable listening ahead to start a new development from digging raw dirt all the way through to procuring your certificates of occupancy and have that be your very first investment for almost anyone. I have got to say no because there is just so much to development. Development is going to rely on your experience and your ability to build a team. You're going to need general contractors and subcontractors and vendors, suppliers and experience dealing with regulators and a municipality and bankers and perhaps investors. And legal development is risky for beginners. You're purchasing something that doesn't yet exist. You've got to be sure that you're buying the right land in the right place. And that means studying everything from geotechnical reports and Perc tests to understanding the demographics, whether you plan to buy that land there in Monroe, Louisiana, or wherever else it is, and then your exit strategy. And while it might not actually be to exit, but it's going to be either to sell your completed development or for you to hold it for rental income, you have really got to know what you're doing.   Speaker 1 (00:14:13) - I am not a developer, but I talked to a lot of them, especially build to rent developers. Now, the reason that I say that the answer is no for development as your first real estate investment for almost anyone. Well, I say almost because if you have a remarkable mentor, someone that's going to go out in the field with you almost every day, then it's a possibility. And even then that mentor should have a proven track record. You need approvals and subdivision and plans drawn and bringing in drainage and utilities and entitlement mean instead of all that for a beginner and really even for most veteran investors, it is substantially easier to buy something that's already built, that has a history of rental occupancy and income. And then the team that you have to build a so much smaller with that primary long term team member as your property manager. But thank you for the question, Tina, because I think a lot of real estate investors wonder about building themselves from raw land. And it seems that even more investors right in here wondering about, you know, just building one individual single family rental home or duplex or fourplex.   Speaker 1 (00:15:25) - And even then, if it's successfully done, it usually takes longer than you think. And then once you're done, the property is vacant and you need to find tenants. So it might be a few more months before it even cash flows. So buy property that's already built, learn investing that way. And what you've done is you've outsourced all of the development unknowns to someone else and they bring you the known and completed development project that is better for more than 99% of people. And then look into being a developer yourself when you've got sufficient experience. If that remains interesting to you, a great mentor with a proven track record or both, if you'd like to ask a question and potentially have me answer it on air here again, go ahead and reach out through get ratification smash contact because that's where you can either leave a voice message or a written one. I am just. Getting started with listener questions. I'm back with more of them. Straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold in You're listening to episode 459 of Get Rich Education.   Speaker 1 (00:16:30) - If you want some really passive income, listen to this. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with freedom family investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25. K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them. It's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660, and this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six six, 866. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056.   Speaker 1 (00:17:43) - They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group.   Speaker 5 (00:18:12) - This is Jerry Operations lead Andrea Newburn. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold and don't put your daydream.   Speaker 1 (00:18:29) - You're listening to the show. It's created more financial freedom for busy people just like you than nearly any show in the world. This is guitarist Education. I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. The next question comes from Adam. He is a real estate agent in Seattle. And Adam asks this. Hi, Keith. I've been an avid listener and follower of yours for years now. Like you, the Little Purple Book changed my life early on and I was able to semi retire at age 35. The book that he's talking about, by the way, is that Poor Dad, I am 42 now and back working as a realtor because I love it.   Speaker 1 (00:19:02) - And then after he wrote I Love It in parentheses, he put well, sorta. So I don't know that he loves it too much and I am at a crossroad in my life. Do I keep acquiring more property and more debt or do I start paying down the properties I do have? I have seven properties now and with a mindset of less is more as I want to enjoy my life a bit more and I'm honestly getting tired of managing my three in state properties. Therefore I've been thinking about selling one to pay off the loan of two other properties and really start to downsize and truly be debt free. Life is too short and I want to enjoy the rest of my life. Do you have any advice or opinions for me? Thank you in advance. Okay. Adam. Well, since you've listened for years, you probably already understand that I don't pay off any of my properties, though I could. I don't want to. I'd lose leverage in all that. You probably understand that I don't self manage.   Speaker 1 (00:20:01) - You said that you self-manage three of your seven properties there in Washington state. So since you probably already understand all that, yes, I would acquire more property, more debt and outsource the property management. That way you can enjoy life if the property is in your home state, don't have high rents in proportion to their values. In a lot of places around Seattle, they don't have a high ratio there. Well then it's probably worth 1030 running into out of state property. Or if you really like those Washington properties, then find a property manager there in state and to find a suitable 1031 exchange facilitator with a proven track record, check the resources tab at GRI marketplace.com. That same website will help you find out-of-state properties if you like. You can also contact our coaches to help walk you through that at marketplace.com/coach. That is a free coaching service by the way. Now as far as keeping the instate Washington properties, if you decide that you do want to do that, the bigger Pockets forums can help you vet a qualified property manager there.   Speaker 1 (00:21:11) - Now, Adam, you did say something about the possibility of downsizing and becoming truly debt free, as you put it. But my question is, what's the problem with debt if someone else reliably pays it all for you? Of course your tenant pays a principal and interest and hopefully a little on top of that called cash flow. All right. In that case, all of that debt is outsourced. Now, let me get a little philosophical for a minute. I don't know the name of the person that's the biggest debtor in the entire world. But you know what? He is probably really wealthy or she all circle back to why in a second. Here's a fun way to understand this. The quarterback threw the most interceptions of all time. Oh, you must think that guy is a total loser. Well, you know what? The quarterback that's thrown the most interceptions all time by far is in fact, a Hall of Famer Brett Farve. Oh, well, how can that be? Well, it's because he got so many chances to play.   Speaker 1 (00:22:17) - He must have been a pretty good quarterback for the coach to put him on the field. Then often year after year, the baseball pitcher that lost the most ever games for his team all time, he is named Cy Young. Well, Cy Young also won the most games all time in Major League Baseball. He was one of the very first inductees into the Hall of Fame. And there's even an award given each year. Still, the most outstanding Major League Baseball player called the Cy Young Award. Yet he lost the most games and say, did you meet a guy on the street there where you live and you learn that he has $20 million in debt? I don't even need to know anything else right there. That tells me that he's probably a financial winner to have that much debt because, see, he would need to be highly credit worthy to even get all that debt in the first place. See, you're only looking at the $20 million debt side of his balance sheet. His asset side might be $50 million.   Speaker 1 (00:23:16) - Hey, that's a $30 million net worth. Even with high inflation, $30 million is fairly wealthy today and mad as Mark Zuckerberg is one of the wealthiest people in the world, he has a net worth. North of $100 billion. And the Zuckerbergs, they took a loan for their home even though they could pay cash for it many times over. And yet when Zuckerberg and his wife bought their home, they took out a loan for the leverage and the arbitrage. The wealthiest people in the world have the most debt AI model that you can model that I personally look to increase my debt as time goes on. And then simultaneously, I expect the asset side to increase faster than the debt side. The asset side increases faster because I've got the debt, hence the leverage. So this is why I have an aversion to being debt free. I hope there's both some helpful resources and a philosophical component for you to chew on there as well. Adam The next listener question comes from Heiko in Utica, New York. Sorry if I mispronounce your name.   Speaker 1 (00:24:18) - It's spelled at Jaakko. Maybe it's Jocko, but I'm going to go with Jocko. He asks. I've held my first ever purchase of a rental single family home for a little over a year. It's located in Holladay, Florida, though my property was projected to provide a cash on cash return of 6%, it only produced 3% because repairs cost more than expected On this 1978 built property. I use a local property manager that's been pretty communicative. I always anticipate reading my monthly email statement from him, just wondering how to manage costs over time. Signed Jocko. Okay. Jocko And by the way, I own rental single family homes myself, just about five miles from Holladay, Florida. And these areas are just north of Tampa. Well, Co only getting 3% rather than a projected 6%. It's actually not a terrible miss. Now, it would be if that were your only revenue source or your only return from an investment. But of course, this 3% cash on cash return is one of your five profit sources from income property.   Speaker 1 (00:25:28) - But suffice to say, one great long term strategy to keep myriad repair costs down over time. And it's something that Ken McElroy told me about, and that is charge the tenant for the first $50 in repairs or maybe charge the tenant for the first $100 of repairs. That way they're going to think twice before bugging you or bugging your manager. Now, this can have the desired effect of keeping your long term repair bill down in a few different ways, but yet ensure that you're still serving the tenant. All right. First of all, the first 50 or $100 a repair bill, it's really not that burdensome to most tenants, but yet they will think twice before calling you or it's calling your manager, in this case, Jocko, before calling about something ticky tacky and minor like the kitchen cabinet doors got a little loose on their hinges again. Now you want to provide clean, safe, affordable, functional housing. That is a core concept in mission here. At first, this might incentivize the tenant to make a 10 or 15 minute repair themselves so that you never even hear from them.   Speaker 1 (00:26:43) - And that also prevents, say, a $75 service call from being made in the first place. Now, if it's a repair that's beyond the tenants expertise or expectations to take care of themselves, say it's something like a kitchen faucet that just leaks a little, well, okay, you want to see that that's taken care of for them. But if they have to pay the first small portion of repairs themselves, then that incentivizes the tenant to report a number of small things in one batch. All right. Well, now, that makes it more efficient for you or for your property managers handyman. That makes for fewer service calls, fewer runs to Home Depot and a real reduction in your repair cost. See? Hello. The work from home movement. That's being good for us as residential real estate investors. But there is one downside to that. A few more tenants spend all day at home and there are more components that can wear out sooner. Or there's this more time that tenants spend at home to notice little things that are amiss.   Speaker 1 (00:27:47) - So that's why the time in the real estate market is right to charge the first portion of repair bills to the tenant. That's why this makes sense now. Now, there are a couple caveats around this. Hello. When the tenant first moves in, I'll go ahead and give them a week to bring you any findings and then those things should be taken care of without charging the tenant anything at all. Right? I mean, the tenant shouldn't have to inherit any problems. And the other caveat is that your tenant has to be communicative about items in disrepair that could create long term damage, like a leaky drain, because you don't want that to ruin your subfloor over. Time. So the short answer on how to lower your long term repair bills, especially in a work from home world, is to have it in the lease that the tenant pays for, say, the first $50 to $100 of repairs. Also, you may have heard it just ten episodes ago on episode 449, I discussed 12 ways that you can raise the red in add value to your property.   Speaker 1 (00:28:52) - There's a good bit of related content there to help you keep profitable and get your cash on cash return up. Now, plenty of properties. In fact, probably most properties have exceeded their return projections over the last three years, and that is primarily due to rapid appreciation. But see, you don't get the lessons from the winds, you get the lessons from the underperformers. And that's why I wanted to answer your question for everyone's benefit today. Taco Tacos question was microeconomics. Let's flip it to macroeconomics with this. Next question from Dave in Atlanta, Georgia. Davis This one a while ago. First, here's the remarkable part on the listener question form in the how did you hear about a section, Dave? You simply wrote, I've been listening to you from the very beginning. Gosh, Dave, this is so supremely appreciated. I know we've got a lot of great devotees and I'm incredibly grateful for it. Dave asks With the US government, 30 trillion in debt and there's some rounding there and if inflation is say 10% over a few years, doesn't inflation debase the government's debt just like it does ours, taking it from 30 trillion down to $27 trillion in this case? Yeah, that stays.   Speaker 1 (00:30:12) - Question That's right, Dave. You've 100% got it. I've talked about this in some prior episodes. Since we get to borrow our mortgage loans in the currency that's denominated in the units of the biggest detonation in the history of the world, the dollar in the USA, then they want to print Dave, just like you. If you had $1 million in debt but you couldn't pay it back right now and you had the ability to print dollars ad infinitum, then sure, the easiest way for you to pay back your debt is to print your own dollars, just like America is doing. And that is just another benefit of you keeping high debt on your properties. In fact, the true definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply. It's not the result, which is a decline in purchasing power. Technically, if the same Chipotle burrito costs $10 last year at $11 this year, that's not inflation. That's the result of inflation. So the USA wants inflation for this reason and other reasons. I've said it before, the surest been investing is that the dollar is going to continue to decline in purchasing power and that's exactly why we are debtors rather than savers.   Speaker 1 (00:31:30) - Take the sure thing. Thanks for the listenership and thanks for the question, Dave. That's all for listener questions. I encourage you to help yourself out. No one's looking out for you more than you amiss. Historically low US housing supply. Gerri Marketplace is where the inventory actually is, and it's the right inventory. The properties that make the best rentals. Real estate pays five ways style. And the selection changes, of course, based on inventory and other elements. So stay up to date. And if you haven't lately, go ahead and log in. There are free coaching service is becoming popular as well in why not it's like your own concierge personal one on one if you want that it is all there for you at gray marketplace.com. I'll be here with you to run it back next week. I'm your host Keith Wayne a little bit. Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 6 (00:32:35) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice.   Speaker 6 (00:32:45) - Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.   Speaker 1 (00:33:03) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.    

Get a 4.75% mortgage rate or 100% financing on new-build Florida income property. Start here. If I gave you $10M, learn why that probably wouldn't even help you. We revisit how “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways”, a concept that I coined right here on the show in May 2015. Some think real estate pays three, four, or six ways. I revisit why there are exactly five. Real estate has many paradoxical relationships. I explore. Americans are living in homes longer than ever, now a duration of 10 years, 8 months. The active supply of available housing dropped again. Get an update on the gambling industry. A major sports gambling platform has offered to advertise with us. Take my free real estate video course right here.  Zillow expects US home values to rise 4.8% from April 2023 to April 2024.  Months of available housing supply is currently 2.7 per Redfin. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/450 Active Supply of Available Homes: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free—text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete transcript:   Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. If you were gifted $10M right now, why that very well wouldn't help you at all.   Learn a fresh take on how Real Estate Pays 5 Ways at the same time. A housing market update with perennially sagging inventory supply amounts and more outlooks for stronger home price appreciation than many expected. Today, on Get Rich Education.   Welcome to GRE!    From Montevideo, Uruguay to Montecito, CA and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of the longest-running and most listened-to shows on real estate… the voice of real estate investing since 2014. I'm your host and my name is Keith Weinhold.   How would you like it if I gave you $1M?   You know what? That's not enough to make my point. Make it $10M. I adjusted for inflation - ha! How much would you like it if I gave you $10M? How would that feel?   But what if it comes with this one condition.   What if I told you that I'll give you the $10M, but you are not waking up tomorrow?    Not waking up tomorrow? No way!   Now you know that waking up tomorrow is worth more than $10M.   This is how you know that your time and your life are worth infinitely more than any dollar amount.   Hmmm… if your time is so valuable. Then why did you check Instagram 15 times yesterday to see who viewed your Stories? Ha!   Why are you spending time with your AI girlfriend? Ha!   Get Rich Education is ultimately about living a rich LIFE - whatever that means to you.   And we do approach that from the financial perspective here. Money does matter… because leverage, cash flow, and inflation-profiting enable you to BUY time.   We're really one of the few investing platforms… this show is one of the few places with the audacity to tell you that - sure, a little delayed gratification is good… but the risk of too much delayed gratification is DENIED gratification.   Denied gratification is a terrible investing risk that most people either don't give enough weight to - or don't factor in at all.   And getting a $10M windfall is not as great as it sounds either.    History shows that the $25M Lottery winner quickly loses their money. Why does that happen?  Because it seemed like it was effortless to get the windfall, and because they don't know how to handle an amount like that.  It's really similar to a capital gains-centric investor that gets a windfall.  See, cash flow investors like you & I - we can be more measured because your income stream is metered out over time. That's why you are less likely to be irrational with your gains.     Now, I touched on some of those ways that you're paid in real estate investing.    Real Estate Pays you 5 Ways™ simultaneously. That's a concept that I coined right here on the GRE podcast. We since went on to have it trademarked.   Do you know when I first introduced that concept right here on the show - the month & year?    And I've since gone on to do a lot with “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways” to help other audiences understand real estate's five distinct profit sources.   Well, I had someone on Team GRE here do some digging into some of our legacy shows - our past episodes… because I wanted to know when I first said it… and it was apparently in May of 2015, so 8 years ago that I introduced it.   Since then, many other thought leaders have gone on to cite the phrase. Someone other than me even wrote a book on it. And that doesn't bother me at all. I'd rather that other people and readers get good ideas. That's more important than getting the credit.   Of course, c'mon, you can recite these 5 now like they're the Pledge Of Allegiance or something.    This is as automatic as the Lord's Prayer is for Christians. The five are: Appreciation Cash Flow Your return on Amortization and Tax Benefits and finally Inflation-Profiting But now, let's dissect this frog here a little. Why five ways? Why not another number, like real estate pays four ways or six ways?   It is five. There are no more or less. Each of the five are a distinct benefit.   A common flawed case that Real Estate Pays 4 Ways is that most real estate teachers omit the Inflation-Profiting benefit on the long-term fixed interest rate debt.   Any GRE devotee knows that with 5% inflation on $1M in debt, you only owe the bank $950K of inflation-adjusted debt after year one, $900K after year two, etc. (And in the meantime, the tenant pays all of your mortgage interest.)   Some that make the 4 Ways case question the Tax Benefit. Could the tax benefit really be considered a profit source, or is it just a deal sweetener?   It's a profit source.   Outside the real estate world, to obtain a tax write-off, you must have a real expense backed up with receipts, like building a new computer equipment or buying a new farm tractor.   Instead, the magic of real estate tax depreciation says that you can just write off 3.6% of the improved property value each year just for doing... nothing all year. No improvements necessary.   It's a phantom write-off, yet legitimate to the IRS.   Then the 1031 Exchange means you can endlessly defer all of your federal capital gains tax for your... entire life.   Yes, it's one of the few places in life where procrastination actually pays.   I've even heard some say that they're a fan of GRE's Real Estate Pays 5 Ways™, but they've discovered a sixth.   This often involves an event that's either unlikely or falls into one of the existing 5 Ways.   For example, "My appraisal value exceeded the contract price. I'm buying it for $320K, but the appraisal is $340K. I got $20K in instant equity. See, I was paid a 6th way."   No.   I mean, good for you, $20K of instant equity is a nice sweetener - that's a $20K credit in your net worth column that you received the moment you opened up that appraisal e-mail from your lender and saw it. Nice!   But an appraised value that exceeds the purchase price is not COMMON enough to be expected… and the 5 Ways are.   Also, you can make the case that "instant equity" is covered in the first way you're paid, Appreciation.   The reason that we invest in real estate is because there's virtually no other vehicle in the world where you can expect to be paid five ways at the same time.   That's a foundational principle - it's a core concept here at GRE.    It's why we do what we do. It answers the compelling “why” for real estate better than any answer there is…   …and that's why anything less than a 20 to 25% combined return when you add up all five ways is actually disappointing - and that's done with low risk - which is paradoxical almost anywhere else in the entire investing world.    If you haven't yet, take my free “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways” course in order to really understand each of your five distinct profit sources, where they come from, and how that all fits together.    It's at GetRichEducation.com/Course. The free “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways” short course is free at GetRichEducation.com/Course    Let's talk about real estate trends.   You know, real estate investing has a lot of relationships that you just wouldn't expect.    Part of that is because it intersects with the economy. Economies are complex and you get these relationships that are counterintuitive.    For example, in a recession, mortgage rates and all interest rates tend to fall, not rise.    Another exhibit is how debt BUILDS wealth with prudent leverage.   Another one that I've explained extensively here and the show and elsewhere is that higher mortgage rates correlate with higher home prices - not lower ones. That throws nearly everyone off.   Some physical real estate trends have been counterintuitive.   About 30 years ago in America - the 1990s - a new trend was fueled that everyone wanted to have a big kitchen.   New homes were often built with a big, fancy kitchen in the center of the home. Open floor concept - no galley kitchens anymore. That began back then.   And this was really the advent of - at the time - what we considered luxury amenities like granite and quartz kitchen countertops.    Anymore, that's become standard. Even our build-to-rent providers at GRE Marketplace often have new granite countertops in rentals.    But the paradox here is the assumption that a big emphasis on kitchens would mean that more people would start cooking at home.    Oh, no. Just the opposite, in the last 30 years, despite the big kitchens, more people eat out at restaurants and fewer people eat at home. Another real estate paradox.   Another counterintuition was the pandemic. Society locked down, people lost their jobs and you think that there are going to be mass foreclosures because with no job, no one can afford their mortgage payment.   People thought the pandemic will cripple the housing market. Oh, it was just the opposite. That created a housing boom. Everyone wanted their space. Another paradox.   Remember here on the show, shortly after Biden was elected, I told you that this administration - for better or for worse - will not let people lose their homes.    Then we had high inflation on the heels of the pandemic. That was bad for consumers and good for real estate.   But high inflation is supposed to mean that bitcoin and gold would surge. Well, another paradox, that brought crypto winter, and gold did nothing in high inflation, until more recently here.   Rather than high delinquency rates we've got low delinquency rates. In fact, the mortgage delinquency rate has been steadily falling for almost 3 years now. That's because of strong borrowers and tough lending standards.   Now, another real estate investing trend, though there's nothing paradoxical here, is mortgage rate resets.    Here in the US, on 1-4 unit rental properties, you're in great shape, whether you locked in your interest rate at 3% or 7% - the thing is that you have a steady payment… and on an inflation-adjusted basis, your same monthly payment amount goes DOWN over time - it's a tailwind to your personal finances.   Inflation cannot touch your steady, locked-in P & I payment.   But many Canadians are up for renewal with their 5-year fixed rate, 25-year amorts.    Yeah, just across the border in Canada, they don't have these 30-year fixed rate amortizing loans.    Their rate resets every five years.   One Canadian homeowner that I talked to, he doesn't live in that posh of a home in Ontario, it's just a little above the median housing price.    His family's loan terms are about to reset on the primary residence and it's expected to increase their monthly payment by $1,280 / mo.   How would you feel if that happened to you overnight? It's a nuisance at best. It might even crimp your quality of life - or worse.   That can't really happen to you in the US.    Having a 30-year FRM is like you having rent control as a tenant.    In coastal areas, some tenants that have a rent control deal - New York, California, Oregon - they want to live in their home for decades under rent control because there's a ceiling on their rent. Move out of their unit - lose the deal and they'd have to reset somewhere else.   It's the same with you as an American homeowner or REI in the 1-to-4 unit space. Your P&I price cannot rise.    And, I've talked about the interest rate lock-in effect before, constraining the housing supply.    Get this. Just last week, First American Title Company informed us that the average resident duration in a home hit a record high.    Amongst this lower intrinsic mobility rate, interest rate lock-in effect, and other societal trends, the average resident duration in a primary home in now 10 years, 8 months.    Lower mobility. Studies show that people are holding onto their cars longer than ever, and people aren't parting with their real estate either.   So, then, with fewer properties coming to market, let's update the available supply of homes.    This is pulling from the same set of stats that I've been citing for years, in order to be consistent. Check this out. This is the FRED Housing Inventory - the Active Listing Count of Available US homes.   Remember, historically, it's 1-and-a-half to 2 million units available. In 2016 it was still 1-and-a-half million.   Then in April of 2020 it dipped below 1 million and fell sharply from there - which I've famously called this era's housing crash.    It was a housing SUPPLY crash - which hedges against a price crash.   It fell to as low as 435,000 a year later in mid-2021. Gosh, under a half million.   It's rebounded as builders know that they need to build more homes. Six months ago it got up to 750,000 available homes - which is still less than half of what  America needs.   And now, today, did the supply get up toward at least 1 million yet? No.    It has dropped back the other way to just 563,000. This astounding dearth of housing supply - it's a condition that we could very well be in for over a decade.   This scarce supply is a long-term American condition. Yes, it's good for your real estate values - both present and future. But it is a problem too. It's a contributor to homelessness!   The Covid home improvement boom is officially over. So says Home Depot. They posted a revenue drop in the first quarter and warned that annual sales would decline in 2023 for the first time in 14 years.    Home Depot said that shoppers are now holding off on the big-ticket purchases they made during the pandemic and are choosing to break up larger projects—like remodeling a bathroom—into smaller, bite-sized pieces.   There's a fascinating new study from a bipartisan think tank shows that everyone wants to LIVE ALONE.   That's what Business Insider just reported on. Now, of course, the term “everyone” is an exaggeration.   But Statista and Our World In Data tells us that - get this - this is the number of SINGLE-PERSON households in the US - people living alone.   Back in 1960, that figure was just a paltry 13%.   By 1970, 17% of households were people were living alone.   Every ten years, that percent crept up to 23, 25, then 26%. By 2010 it hit 27% and by 2022 it hit 29%.   Now, you can't think that's good for society - to have all these single-person households. Almost 3 in 10 living alone. C'mon. Find a good spouse.   But in any case, that's good for you as a REI, when, say, 10 people live amongst 5 homes rather than 3 homes - absorbing all that housing supply and keeping it scarce.     Even if the US population stayed the same, there's more home demand - with that trend.   Of course, the US population is growing, though really slowly, probably just a few tenths of 1% this year.   But because of all the Millennials and the embedded “Work From Anywhere” trend, housing demand is pretty strong.   The recent rental housing demand and rent boom came almost entirely due to a surge in household formation -- young adults leaving the nest and roommates decoupling to get their own space... especially in urban areas.   People working from home want more space (without a roommate) AND are willing to pay more for it -- and able -- to pay more for it.   So if you're bullish on work-from-home remaining the norm for at least a chunk of the population (and I am), you should be bullish on the rental demand outlook.    And this has really revitalized America's SUBURBS - that's the area where you find that space.   The WFH-fueled rise of the suburbs is a wake-up call to cities, where, in the case of NYC, 26 Empire State Buildings' worth of office space now sits empty.  The typical office worker is spending $2,000–$4,600 less annually in city centers. Because even if they GO to the city to work, they might only do that 2 days a week now - not 5. I've got more for you straight ahead, including a new forecast on how much home prices are expected to rise this year.   Again, check out my free video course if you haven't “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways”. Get it at GetRichEducation.com/Course   I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education.   Yeah, big thanks to this week's show sponsors. I'm only bringing you those places that will bring real value to your life.   Now, here at GRE, I recently read an offer that one of these major sports gambling platforms sent us. They want to advertise on the show here.    Do you want to hear sports gambling ads on GRE? I've got an opinion about that, that I'll share with you shortly. Gambling is not the same as investing.    If you're wondering why you're hearing more about gambling, especially sports gambling than you had just a few years ago, well…   Now, just last week, it was FIVE years ago that the Supreme Court lifted a federal ban on sports gambling in the US.    That spawned a multibillion-dollar industry that's transformed how Americans watch, talk about, and experience sports.   Americans bet $95B on sports in legal jurisdictions with consumer protections last year. That's more money than the amount spent on ride sharing, coffee, or streaming… and you can bet that the off-the-books gambling number, if added in, would make that WAY higher. Two sports betting companies, DraftKings and FanDuel, control 71% of the US market, per gambling analytics firm Eilers & Krejcik. Gosh, that's almost a duopoly right there. But despite that, these companies have struggled to turn a profit. FanDuel recorded its first quarterly profit just last year, and DraftKings has YET to report a profitable quarter. Well, I'll just tell ya, it's one of those two big companies that inquired about advertising on GRE. Of the 50 states, the number is 33 that allow it. That's 2/3rd of the nation that has legal sports betting (Washington, DC, has it too). Another four states have legalized sports wagering, but don't have any sportsbooks operating yet. Interestingly, the three most-populous US states—California, Texas, and Florida—have not legalized sports gambling. And they account for 26% of all teams in the major North American pro leagues. The number of women joining sportsbook apps jumped 45% last year, marking the third straight year that new women users exceeded men. Hmmm. I guess that's the growth market there. My inclination to have gambling advertising and associating with these companies is NOT to do it… not to accept that advertising income. I don't see how that's serving you. This feels like a conflict in my gut and in my heart. Gambling is sort of the opposite of investing for a stable rental income stream.  I mean, either way, I guess you're putting your money at stake. But that's about the closest common ground I can find.  At least at this time… and probably all-time, it's a “no” for gambling content here. That's not any sort of moral judgment on the activity at all. I mean, gosh, as a teenager, I was really into sports gambling, but it was the informal kind. My friend & I each lay a $10 bill next to the TV - Phillies vs. Mets. Winner gets the $20 bucks. So, my inclination is a pretty easy “no”. Hook up with our sponsors - they support GRE. That's Ridge Lending Group, offering income property loans nationwide. JWB Real Estate Capital - if you want performing income property, JWB really has Jacksonville, FL sewn up & locked down. They do one thing and do it well. Then, Freedom Family Investments. Get started with them for real estate funds that are ultra-low hassle. Text “FAMILY” to 66866.  Where will the next ten years take you & I on the show here? I would love to be along for the ride with you. I hope that you'll be here with me.   Let me just take a moment to remind you that I'm grateful to have such a large, loyal audience to… well, listen to the words that I say every week. Thank you for your support.   This show has almost reached the 5 million download mark. I've been shown that it's between 4.8 and 4.9 million downloads now. I'm genuinely honored and a little humbled about that even.    Let's listen in to this 3+ minute CNBC clip. This is Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the NAR - the National Association of Realtors talking about the housing market just last week.    Now, a little context here - historically, the NAR has tended to give these dominantly sunny side-up, glowing, everything is always good & getting better kind of remarks on the housing market.   But I've been listening to the NAR's Lawrence Yun for quite a while and think he's been rather balanced.    Here, he discusses how real estate sales volume is down - which has a lot to do with low supply, that mortgage rates are steady, and that prices are slowly rising in most parts of the nation.   [OK, Vedran. Here's where we play the insert.]   0:09-3:42 First words to keep are: “Lawrence Yun…” Last words to keep are: “... half of the country.”   https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/05/17/home-prices-still-rising-despite-sales-dropping-says-national-association-of-realtors-yun.html   Now, Lawrence Yun did go on to say that he thinks that the Fed should lower interest rates by a half point, and more.    Let us know if you'd like us to invite Lawrence Yun onto the show. As always, you can leave your suggestions, questions, or any comments about the Get Rich Education podcast or any of our other platforms at our Contact center at: GetRichEducation.com/Contact   When it comes to national HPA, just last week, we learned that Zillow revised its home price outlook upward.   Between April 2023 and April 2024, Zillow expects home US home values to rise 4.8%.   You've got more signs that more & more American markets are being considered a seller's market rather than a buyer's market, which tilts toward price appreciation, though I still think pretty moderate price appreciation this year.    CNN recently published an article where they even posited the question: “Are Bidding Wars Back?” Yes, they are in a few markets.     Another measure of housing supply is the MONTHS of available supply. I think you know that 6 to 7 months of inventory is considered a balanced supply & demand market.   If it gets up to 10 months of supply, you tend to see little or no HPA.    Well, indicative of the low housing supply, we hit a winter high of 4-and-a-half months of supply.    And today, it's down to just 2.7 months per Redfin. 2.7 months. That's just another sign that demand is outpacing supply.   Then, among those entry-level homes, like the NAR's Lawrence Yun eluded to, they're even harder to find… and they're the ones that make the best rentals.    How hard are these to find? I mean, in some markets this can be even more rare than finding a true friend? Ha!   Is it as rare as the Hope Diamond? Or perhaps a Honus Wagner baseball card? Ha!   Well, the good news is that we actually have the inventory that you want at GRE Marketplace.   Besides that, we actually have something that you really like and that is - mortgage rate relief to help you with your cash flow.    Purchase rates have been hovering around 6 1/2% lately. That's the OO rate, so for rentals, it could be 7%+.   Well, how about rolling back the hands of time? Through our great relationships here and our free investment coaching, you have access to 4.75% interest rates on investment property - and many of these are new-builds in path-of-progress Florida.   Yes, our free coaching will get you the 4.75% mortgage interest rate, they'll even help write the sales contract for you if you're new to this, walk you through the property inspection, the property condition, the appraisal.    Yes, a 4.75% interest rate… today, from these homebuilder buydowns. I don't know how much longer that can last.    To be clear, you're not buying an income property FROM us. You're buying it with our help and our connections. It is all free to you. This is educational support for you.   In fact, our coaching support like this through our sole investment coach, Naresh is becoming so popular, that I can announce that we soon plan to add a second investment coach. Yes! A new one.   And interestingly, you have heard of this soon-to-be second investment coach because they've been a guest on the show here a number of times. Yeah, we'll make that introduction on a future show. You'll find THAT interesting.   But, our Investment Coach, Naresh, does have some slots open to talk with you and help you out. A lot of the best deals currently with these 4.75% rates are with new-build Florida duplexes and fourplexes.    You can use them for rental SFHs too. Last I checked, the deals were a little better on the duplexes and fourplexes.   You probably thought that Sub-6 and sub-5 mortgage rates are about as unlikely to make a sudden comeback as AOL or Myspace, but we've got them here now.    Now, that 4.75% is just one of two options that we have with some Build-To-Rent builders that are fairly motivated. So to review the first one fully… you can get a   4.75% interest rate with a 25% down payment 1 year of free property management and $1,000 off closing costs per deal That's one. Or, option 2 is: Zero down payment - yes, 100% financing 2 years free property management $1,000 off closing costs per deal Negotiable price, open to offers They are the two options.  It's rarely more attractive than this. If you hear this in a few weeks, or perhaps months, I doubt that these options will be there any longer.   So I'll close with something actionable that can really help you now.    If you want to do it yourself, that's fine, like thousands of others have, get a selection of income property - despite this national dearth of supply at GREmarketplace.com   Or, like I said, right now, it's really helpful to connect with an experienced GRE Investment Coach - it's free - our coach's name is Naresh - for those 4.75% interest rates or zero down program - whatever's best for you… you can do all that at once at GREmarketplace.com/Coach   Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. DQYD!  

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 13th, 2023... some good news about inflation, how a U.S. debt default might impact housing, and a new Gallup Poll on investor preferences.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with two inflation reports from this past week. The first was a report on the Consumer Price Index for April. The CPI shows a .4% rise in consumer prices which is a slight increase from the previous month, but it brought the annual rate below 5% for the first time in two years. It hit a high of 9.1% last summer, but is now down to 4.9%. The core rate, which omits food and fuel, was also down .4%, with an annual rate of 5.5%. Shelter prices rose the most, but those prices are slowing down. It's interesting to note that the three-month annualized rate is now at 3.2%. (1)   Producer prices are also coming down. The Labor Department reported a .2% increase in the Producer Price Index for April, with an annual rate of 2.3%. The PPI's core rate was also down .2% but the annual rate is a bit higher, at 3.4%. As MarketWatch reports: “Inflation is moderating at the consumer and producer levels. This is adding to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates further at the next meeting in mid-June.” (2)   The Fed's preferred report on inflation, known as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index or PCE, will play a big role in what the Fed does next. That's coming out at the end of this month.   Weekly jobless claims were a surprise on the upside, with 240,000 people filing for benefits. They were 22,000 higher than they were for the previous week. Economists had only expected an increase of 3,000. That's the highest number of claims since October of 2021. The numbers have been steadily rising since January, for a total of 1.81 million continuing claims. Higher numbers indicate a softening of the job market and slower wage growth which the Fed wants to see in its fight against inflation. (3)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates are still idling in the lower 6% range. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down four basis points to 6.35% this last week. The 15-year was down one point to 5.75%. (4) Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, says: “A recent sideways trend in mortgage rates is a welcome departure from the record increases of last year.” (5)   In other news making headlines…   Mortgage Rates Would Skyrocket if U.S. Defaults on Debt   As lawmakers haggle over the debt ceiling, there's concern about what would happen if they don't come to an agreement and the government defaults. According to Zillow, it would have a devastating impact on the housing market, with mortgage rates potentially rising to 8.4%. That would increase a typical mortgage payment by 22%. (6)   Zillow says if mortgage rates get to the 8% level, existing home sales could fall from April's 4.3 million to around 3.3 million in September. That's a 23% drop. Zillow's senior economist, Jeff Tucker, acknowledges that a default is “unlikely” but if it did happen, he says it would send the housing market into a “deep freeze.”   It is hoped that President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy will hammer out a deal by June 1st. In a Bloomberg interview, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: “There is no satisfactory solution for the U.S. that's good for the economy and financial markets other than Congress acting to raise the debt ceiling.”   Fed's Rate Hikes Are Now Hurting the Housing Market   Housing economists are not happy about the latest rate hike. The Fed hiked short-term rates another quarter point to a range of 5 to 5.25%. The National Association of Realtors' Lawrence Yun and the National Association of Home Builders' Robert Dietz call it “disappointing.” They say the high rates are freezing loan activity and hurting the economy. (7)   They say that consumer prices have been coming down for months and the last rate hike wasn't necessary. Yun says that: “Regional banks are an important source of loans – but they are frozen.” He says: “They are shuffling their balance sheets and figuring out what to do.”   Dietz says that higher rates are making it harder for developers to build homes, which are badly needed to boost inventory. He says: “We need to be building more than 1.1 million homes a year to haVe a meaningful impact on the lack of inventory.”    Real Estate Still a Top Investment Choice, but Lead is Shrinking   A recent Gallup poll shows that real estate is still a top investment choice, but the lead is shrinking. In 2022, 45% of the participants said that real estate is the best long-term investment. This year, that percentage shrank to just 34%. (8)   Many consumers have turned to gold, which has now taken second place and pushed stocks into third. Gold was favored by 26% this year, compared to 15% last year. Stocks dropped from 24% last year to 18% this year. Savings accounts, CDs, and bonds are up slightly but they are still in fourth place.    Gallup asked some of the participants about crypto, but that has lost its luster with the recent collapse of the FTX crypto exchange, and a decline in crypto prices, especially for bitcoin. Only 4% of Americans are choosing crypto. Last year, it was 8%.   That's it for today. Check the show notes for links, and the “Join for Free” button to become a member of RealWealth. It's free to join, and you'll have full access to our website including our investor portal where you can check out various rental property markets and find out how to make real estate work for you in this tough environment.   And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-price-inflation-cools-to-lowest-rate-in-two-years-in-april-ef69d854?mod=home-page   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-april-producer-prices-rise-2-3-over-past-year-smallest-increase-since-january-2021-8afa903e?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-hit-264-000-in-latest-week-highest-level-since-last-october-d63852a4?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   5 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-are-steadily-edging-downward   6 - https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/12/us-default-would-send-mortgage-rates-past-8/   7 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/housing-economists-fed-policy-now-hurting-real-estate   8 - https://news.gallup.com/poll/505592/real-estate-lead-best-investment-shrinks-gold-rises.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 6th, 2023… why economists are expecting a rate hike pause, where homeowners are paying the most and the least for their mortgages, and new home search help from a chatbot!   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and the big news is, of course, the Fed's rate hike. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee followed through on an expected quarter point hike to the overnight lending rate, which puts the target range between 5 and 5.25%. It was the 10th rate hike in a row and a unanimous decision among committee members, despite calls for a pause from some Congressional lawmakers. (1)   The Fed also appeared to suggest that it might now be time for a pause, by eliminating a sentence that says “some” additional rate hikes may be needed. Instead, the statement kind of hedged on the idea of rate hikes by saying that any further rate hikes would depend on “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affect economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.” Economists are interpreting that to mean that the Fed is prepared to take a more “dovish” approach at its next policy meeting. As MarketWatch puts it, the Fed is “on hold.”    Fed Chief Jerome Powell also said in his press conference after the meeting that: “We are no longer saying we anticipate” rate hikes. He says: “We will be driven by incoming data, meeting by meeting.” (2)   Some economists say the Fed has already gone too far. Chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, is one of them. He called last week's rate hike “unnecessary and harmful.”   Yun says inflation has been coming down and will continue to do so. He says: “It will be even lower as the heavyweight component to inflation, which is rent, will inevitably slow down given the robust, 40-year high in construction of new apartment units.” He also says that many small banks are struggling right now. He says: “They are becoming zombie-like banks, unable to lend even to good businesses, as they are more concerned with balance sheet shuffling for survival.” (3)   Meanwhile, there are new signs that the job market is softening. Initial claims were up 13,000 to a total of 242,000. That's up from about 200,000 in January. Continuing claims were down, however, by 38,000 to a total of 1.81 million. (4) The April jobs report also shows that the job market is still going strong. It shows that companies increased the number of available positions by 253,000. Wall Street economists had anticipated the addition of just 180,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate also declined from 3.5% to 3.4%. (5)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates dipped a little this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down four basic points to 6.39%. The 15-year was up five points to 5.76%. (6)   In other news making headlines…   The Average Monthly Mortgage Payment   The average monthly mortgage payment is now $2,317. Lending Tree's latest study shows that the average U.S. home buyer needs a mortgage of $333,342 with the highest amounts needed in the District of Columbia, Washington State, and California. (7)   High priced states skew the averages however, so you need to look at the individual states to see how affordable they are. The three states with the lowest average mortgage amounts are West Virginia, Kentucky, and Michigan. In West Virginia, the average is just $1,700.   Homeownership Not a Priority Among Most Renters   A majority of renters don't see homeownership in their future. Online brokerage Home Bay conducted a survey that shows about two-thirds say they have lost hope in owning a home, although half of the respondents said that homeownership is “very important.” Given their current situation, they'd prefer to spend their money on other things. The top three priorities are paying down debt, having a comfortable retirement, and owning a car. (8)   Among the renters who want to own a home, a third are willing to pay a high price to do that including many who said they'd skip meals or sell their plasma. Two thirds also said they would take on a second job.   Zillow, Redfin Launch ChatGPT Plugin   Searching for a home could get a little easier with the help of a chatbot. Both Zillow and Redfin announced that users will be able to get a ChatGPT plugin that will allow them to describe homes and have the chatbot show relevant listings. The OpenAI website says that only a small number of users have access to the plugins right now, but you can add your name to a waitlist. (9)   That's it for this week's News Brief. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth while you are at our website by hitting the “join for free” button. Membership gives you full access to our Investor Portal where you can see sample properties and connect with our network of real estate professionals, including our RealWealthinvestment counselors.   And please remember to subscribe to our podcast!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/fed-rate-decision-may-2023-.html   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-things-we-learned-from-powells-press-conference-after-latest-fed-rate-hike-4863f055?mod=federal-reserve   3 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/yun-latest-fed-hike-unnecessary-and-harmful   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-13-000-to-242-000-and-show-hints-of-labor-market-softening-41d5e71b?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-up-0-3-in-march-546e0768?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/the-average-monthly-mortgage-payment-is-above-2300   8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/04/renters-say-homeownership-is-hopeless-how-theyre-spending-instead.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c&par=realestate   ​​9 - https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/04/redfin-zillow-adopt-chatgpt-plugins/  

This week, NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun discussed market trends, shared an economic update, and give his outlook for the remainder of 2023 and beyond! Are you an HAR MLS Platinum Subscriber? Join our Facebook Group! Click to join. Sign up for your free Inman Select Subscription here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube , and LinkedIn.

This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, March 22nd, 2023. Hi Contrast Hymn Books If you don’t teach your kids the Lord’s songs, the world will teach them its songs. The brand-new Hi-Contrast Hymn Book is designed to help you teach your children the most beloved songs of the Christian faith. Its captivating illustrations will create special moments of truth, goodness, and beauty in your home every day. To get a copy for your family, go to www.hicontrasthymnbooks.com/FLF. That’s www. “H” “I” contrasthymnbooks.com/FLF. Now to the news… First in world news… https://www.foxnews.com/world/vladimir-putin-xi-jinping-sign-economic-deal-latest-demonstration-friendship-limits Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping sign economic deal in latest demonstration of 'friendship without limits' Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement to expand their economic ties during a bilateral meeting in Moscow on Tuesday. Xi is in Moscow for a multiday series of meetings with his Russian counterpart, aimed at demonstrating the two countries' new "friendship without limits." Xi and Putin emphasized the importance of jointly safeguarding their countries' energy security. Putin touted plans for a gas pipeline from Siberia to China ahead of the meeting, saying the agreement was all-but finalized. "We were just discussing a good project, the new Power of Siberia 2 pipeline via Mongolia. Practically all the parameters of that agreement have been finalized," Putin told Xi at the beginning of the meeting, according to the Financial Times. Beijing has grown increasingly friendly with Moscow over the past year as Putin's invasion of Ukraine left the country largely ostracized on the world stage. Xi's visit comes just days after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin's arrest for war crimes committed in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the pair called each other "dear friend" when they first shook hands on Monday. Putin alleged during Monday's meeting that the Western world is conspiring to stifle Russia and China by "persistently working to split the common Eurasian space into a network of ‘exclusive clubs’ and military blocs that would serve to contain our countries’ development." The exact details of Russia and China's Tuesday economic agreement have yet to be released. Over to Paris… https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/crime-pmn/macrons-government-faces-moment-of-truth-over-pension-reform Protesters set rubbish on fire as French govt barely survives no-confidence vote Protesters set piles of rubbish on fire in central Paris on Monday after President Emmanuel Macron’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence motion in parliament on Monday over a deeply unpopular pension reform. The failure of the no-confidence vote will be a relief to Macron. Had it succeeded, it would have sunk his government and killed the legislation, which is set to raise the retirement age by two years to 64. But the relief proved short-lived. In some of Paris’ most prestigious avenues, firefighters scrambled to put out burning rubbish piles left uncollected for days due to strikes as protesters played cat-and-mouse with police. Earlier on Thursday, a Reuters reporter saw police fire tear gas and briefly charge at protesters after the no-confidence vote barely fell short of enough votes to pass. Unions and opposition parties said they would step up protests to try and force a u-turn. The vote on the tripartisan, no-confidence motion was closer than expected. Some 278 MPs backed it, just nine short of the 287 needed for it to succeed. As soon as the failure of the no-confidence vote was announced, lawmakers from the hard left (LFI, France Unbowed) shouted “Resign!” at Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and brandished placards that read: “We’ll meet in the streets.” In the southwestern city of Bordeaux, about 200-300 people, mostly youngsters, gathered against the reform and chanted: “Macron, resign!” A couple of trash bins were lit on fire as the crowd chanted: “This will blow up.” Over the past three nights, clashes over the pension reform, in Paris and throughout the country, have been reminiscent of the Yellow Vest protests that erupted in late 2018 over high fuel prices. A ninth nationwide day of strikes and protests is scheduled on Thursday. “Nothing undermines the mobilization of workers,” the hardline CGT union said after the vote, calling on workers to step up industrial action and “participate massively in rolling strikes and demonstrations.” Opposition parties will also challenge the bill in the Constitutional Council, which could decide to strike down some or all of it – if it considers it breaches the constitution. A second motion of no confidence, tabled by the far-right National Rally (RN), also failed, after it gathered only 94 votes. Other opposition parties said they would not vote for it. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen said Borne should go. She said Macron should call a referendum on the reform but was unlikely to do so. “He’s deaf to what the French people want,” she told reporters. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2023/03/20/this-is-insane-mexican-government-seizes-assets-of-american-company-n2620887 'This Is Insane': Mexican Military Just Seized Assets of an American Company Over the weekend, the Mexican military seized a number of assets belonging to American company Vulcan Materials. "The seizure of a US company's marine terminal in Mexico has drawn criticism from a US senator and risks sparking more tension between the two nations amid spats over energy and security," Bloomberg reports. "US construction firm Vulcan Materials alleges that armed forces, including from the Mexican government, launched a takeover of its facility in the country's southeast on Tuesday. The company says a federal judge in Mexico has ordered a stay on any government effort to confiscate the property." The move prompted national security experts to sound the alarm, calling the situation "insane." Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe is also weighing in, noting President Joe Biden's continued weakness on the world stage. Last week, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador lashed out after Republicans called for additional tools to use military force against Mexican cartels. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/21/february-home-sales-spike.html Home sales spike 14.5% in February as the median price drops for the first time in over a decade Sales of previously owned homes rose 14.5% in February compared with January, according to a seasonally adjusted count by the National Association of Realtors. That put sales at an annualized rate of 4.58 million units. It was the first monthly gain in 12 months and the largest increase since July 2020, just after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Sales were, however, 22.6% lower than they were in February of last year. These sales counts are based on closings, so the contracts were likely signed at the end of December and throughout January, when mortgage rates had fallen sharply. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan hovered in the low 6% range throughout January after reaching a high of 7% last fall. The relative drop caused a jump in sales of newly built homes, before rates jumped back toward 7% in February. They now stand at 6.67%, according to Mortgage News Daily. “Conscious of changing mortgage rates, home buyers are taking advantage of any rate declines,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, in a release. “Moreover, we’re seeing stronger sales gains in areas where home prices are decreasing and the local economies are adding jobs.” Higher mortgage rates have been cooling home prices since last summer, and for the first time in a record 131 consecutive months — nearly 11 years — prices were lower on a year-over-year comparison. The median price of an existing home sold in February was $363,000, a 0.2% decline from February 2022. That lower median price could be a sign that homes on the more affordable end of the market are selling. Sales might have been even higher were it not for what is still very low supply. There were just 980,000 homes for sale at the end of February, according to the Realtors, flat compared with January. At the current sales pace, that represents a 2.6-month supply. A balanced market between buyer and seller is considered a 4- to 6-month supply. “Inventory levels are still at historic lows,” Yun added. “Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.” This could start to heat prices again, but with mortgage rates now higher than they were in January it will be harder for some buyers to compete. All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in February, down from 29% in January but up from 25% in February 2022. Individual investors returned, making up 18% of buyers, up from 16% in January but down from 19% in February 2022. When looking at sales at different price points, they were all down in the range of 20% from February last year, with sales down the most in the top, million-dollar-plus segment. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/21/politics/idaho-firing-squad-bill/index.html Idaho lawmakers approve bill that would allow execution by firing squad Idaho lawmakers approved a bill Monday that would allow execution by firing squad, according to the legislature’s website. State Rep. Bruce D. Skaug confirmed the move in a statement to CNN. “H186 has now passed the Idaho Senate and House with a veto proof majority,” Skaug wrote in an email to CNN. “Upon signature of the Governor, the state may now more likely carry out justice, as determined by our judicial system, against those who have committed first degree murder.” A total of 24 officials voted for the bill, while 11 voted against it. House Bill 186 will move to Republican Gov. Brad Little’s desk next. The bill stipulates that firing squads will be used only if the state cannot obtain the drugs needed for lethal injections. Several states have struggled to source the drugs required for lethal injection, causing them to pause executions and triggering lawsuits from inmates who argue the injections are inhumane. Additionally, the bill permits Idaho to use firing squads if lethal injections are deemed unconstitutional by a court. A fiscal note tied to the bill explains that refurbishing the Department of Correction to meet “safety and execution requirements for the firing squad” will cost around $750,000. If the bill is signed into law, Idaho will follow South Carolina, which approved the usage of firing squads in March 2022. Three other states permit firing squads, according to the Death Penalty Information Center: Mississippi, Utah and Oklahoma. A firing squad was last used in the US in 2010 to execute convicted murderer Ronnie Lee Gardner in Utah.

This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Wednesday, March 22nd, 2023. Hi Contrast Hymn Books If you don’t teach your kids the Lord’s songs, the world will teach them its songs. The brand-new Hi-Contrast Hymn Book is designed to help you teach your children the most beloved songs of the Christian faith. Its captivating illustrations will create special moments of truth, goodness, and beauty in your home every day. To get a copy for your family, go to www.hicontrasthymnbooks.com/FLF. That’s www. “H” “I” contrasthymnbooks.com/FLF. Now to the news… First in world news… https://www.foxnews.com/world/vladimir-putin-xi-jinping-sign-economic-deal-latest-demonstration-friendship-limits Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping sign economic deal in latest demonstration of 'friendship without limits' Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an agreement to expand their economic ties during a bilateral meeting in Moscow on Tuesday. Xi is in Moscow for a multiday series of meetings with his Russian counterpart, aimed at demonstrating the two countries' new "friendship without limits." Xi and Putin emphasized the importance of jointly safeguarding their countries' energy security. Putin touted plans for a gas pipeline from Siberia to China ahead of the meeting, saying the agreement was all-but finalized. "We were just discussing a good project, the new Power of Siberia 2 pipeline via Mongolia. Practically all the parameters of that agreement have been finalized," Putin told Xi at the beginning of the meeting, according to the Financial Times. Beijing has grown increasingly friendly with Moscow over the past year as Putin's invasion of Ukraine left the country largely ostracized on the world stage. Xi's visit comes just days after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin's arrest for war crimes committed in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the pair called each other "dear friend" when they first shook hands on Monday. Putin alleged during Monday's meeting that the Western world is conspiring to stifle Russia and China by "persistently working to split the common Eurasian space into a network of ‘exclusive clubs’ and military blocs that would serve to contain our countries’ development." The exact details of Russia and China's Tuesday economic agreement have yet to be released. Over to Paris… https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/crime-pmn/macrons-government-faces-moment-of-truth-over-pension-reform Protesters set rubbish on fire as French govt barely survives no-confidence vote Protesters set piles of rubbish on fire in central Paris on Monday after President Emmanuel Macron’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence motion in parliament on Monday over a deeply unpopular pension reform. The failure of the no-confidence vote will be a relief to Macron. Had it succeeded, it would have sunk his government and killed the legislation, which is set to raise the retirement age by two years to 64. But the relief proved short-lived. In some of Paris’ most prestigious avenues, firefighters scrambled to put out burning rubbish piles left uncollected for days due to strikes as protesters played cat-and-mouse with police. Earlier on Thursday, a Reuters reporter saw police fire tear gas and briefly charge at protesters after the no-confidence vote barely fell short of enough votes to pass. Unions and opposition parties said they would step up protests to try and force a u-turn. The vote on the tripartisan, no-confidence motion was closer than expected. Some 278 MPs backed it, just nine short of the 287 needed for it to succeed. As soon as the failure of the no-confidence vote was announced, lawmakers from the hard left (LFI, France Unbowed) shouted “Resign!” at Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and brandished placards that read: “We’ll meet in the streets.” In the southwestern city of Bordeaux, about 200-300 people, mostly youngsters, gathered against the reform and chanted: “Macron, resign!” A couple of trash bins were lit on fire as the crowd chanted: “This will blow up.” Over the past three nights, clashes over the pension reform, in Paris and throughout the country, have been reminiscent of the Yellow Vest protests that erupted in late 2018 over high fuel prices. A ninth nationwide day of strikes and protests is scheduled on Thursday. “Nothing undermines the mobilization of workers,” the hardline CGT union said after the vote, calling on workers to step up industrial action and “participate massively in rolling strikes and demonstrations.” Opposition parties will also challenge the bill in the Constitutional Council, which could decide to strike down some or all of it – if it considers it breaches the constitution. A second motion of no confidence, tabled by the far-right National Rally (RN), also failed, after it gathered only 94 votes. Other opposition parties said they would not vote for it. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen said Borne should go. She said Macron should call a referendum on the reform but was unlikely to do so. “He’s deaf to what the French people want,” she told reporters. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2023/03/20/this-is-insane-mexican-government-seizes-assets-of-american-company-n2620887 'This Is Insane': Mexican Military Just Seized Assets of an American Company Over the weekend, the Mexican military seized a number of assets belonging to American company Vulcan Materials. "The seizure of a US company's marine terminal in Mexico has drawn criticism from a US senator and risks sparking more tension between the two nations amid spats over energy and security," Bloomberg reports. "US construction firm Vulcan Materials alleges that armed forces, including from the Mexican government, launched a takeover of its facility in the country's southeast on Tuesday. The company says a federal judge in Mexico has ordered a stay on any government effort to confiscate the property." The move prompted national security experts to sound the alarm, calling the situation "insane." Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe is also weighing in, noting President Joe Biden's continued weakness on the world stage. Last week, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador lashed out after Republicans called for additional tools to use military force against Mexican cartels. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/21/february-home-sales-spike.html Home sales spike 14.5% in February as the median price drops for the first time in over a decade Sales of previously owned homes rose 14.5% in February compared with January, according to a seasonally adjusted count by the National Association of Realtors. That put sales at an annualized rate of 4.58 million units. It was the first monthly gain in 12 months and the largest increase since July 2020, just after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Sales were, however, 22.6% lower than they were in February of last year. These sales counts are based on closings, so the contracts were likely signed at the end of December and throughout January, when mortgage rates had fallen sharply. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan hovered in the low 6% range throughout January after reaching a high of 7% last fall. The relative drop caused a jump in sales of newly built homes, before rates jumped back toward 7% in February. They now stand at 6.67%, according to Mortgage News Daily. “Conscious of changing mortgage rates, home buyers are taking advantage of any rate declines,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, in a release. “Moreover, we’re seeing stronger sales gains in areas where home prices are decreasing and the local economies are adding jobs.” Higher mortgage rates have been cooling home prices since last summer, and for the first time in a record 131 consecutive months — nearly 11 years — prices were lower on a year-over-year comparison. The median price of an existing home sold in February was $363,000, a 0.2% decline from February 2022. That lower median price could be a sign that homes on the more affordable end of the market are selling. Sales might have been even higher were it not for what is still very low supply. There were just 980,000 homes for sale at the end of February, according to the Realtors, flat compared with January. At the current sales pace, that represents a 2.6-month supply. A balanced market between buyer and seller is considered a 4- to 6-month supply. “Inventory levels are still at historic lows,” Yun added. “Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.” This could start to heat prices again, but with mortgage rates now higher than they were in January it will be harder for some buyers to compete. All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in February, down from 29% in January but up from 25% in February 2022. Individual investors returned, making up 18% of buyers, up from 16% in January but down from 19% in February 2022. When looking at sales at different price points, they were all down in the range of 20% from February last year, with sales down the most in the top, million-dollar-plus segment. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/21/politics/idaho-firing-squad-bill/index.html Idaho lawmakers approve bill that would allow execution by firing squad Idaho lawmakers approved a bill Monday that would allow execution by firing squad, according to the legislature’s website. State Rep. Bruce D. Skaug confirmed the move in a statement to CNN. “H186 has now passed the Idaho Senate and House with a veto proof majority,” Skaug wrote in an email to CNN. “Upon signature of the Governor, the state may now more likely carry out justice, as determined by our judicial system, against those who have committed first degree murder.” A total of 24 officials voted for the bill, while 11 voted against it. House Bill 186 will move to Republican Gov. Brad Little’s desk next. The bill stipulates that firing squads will be used only if the state cannot obtain the drugs needed for lethal injections. Several states have struggled to source the drugs required for lethal injection, causing them to pause executions and triggering lawsuits from inmates who argue the injections are inhumane. Additionally, the bill permits Idaho to use firing squads if lethal injections are deemed unconstitutional by a court. A fiscal note tied to the bill explains that refurbishing the Department of Correction to meet “safety and execution requirements for the firing squad” will cost around $750,000. If the bill is signed into law, Idaho will follow South Carolina, which approved the usage of firing squads in March 2022. Three other states permit firing squads, according to the Death Penalty Information Center: Mississippi, Utah and Oklahoma. A firing squad was last used in the US in 2010 to execute convicted murderer Ronnie Lee Gardner in Utah.

Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane wonder why Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO, wants to save New First Republic and why big banks in general want to save small banks. How will Powell respond to the recent bank crisis at tomorrow's fed meeting? The US is studying ways to insure all bank deposits if this crisis continues. Will the FDIC get expanded? Lawrence Yun, NAR, joins the show to chat about the recent home sales data.

In this weekend episode, three segments from this week's C-SPAN's Washington Journal program. First – PBS Frontline producer and correspondent James Jacoby discusses the documentary "The Age of Easy Money" about the Federal Reserve's role from the Great Recession – to this week's bank rescues. Then, Human Rights Watch senior China researcher Yaqiu Wang discusses China's human rights record.  PLUS, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, discusses the state of the nation's housing market and impact of rising interest rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices