Podcasts about Mortgage Bankers Association

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Bob Broeksmit, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, about the progress of the trigger lead bill in Congress as well as the deregulation of the mortgage industry under President Trump. Related to this episode: ⁠As trigger leads ban inches closer, MBA's Broeksmit talks deregulation, conservatorship | HousingWire⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠More info about HousingWire⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's show is an unusual show in that we are quoting national statistics. As you know, I don't love national numbers because they reflect averages and the average often doesn't apply in specific areas. When we look at demand for homes, and for rentals, there are historic norms that are based on demographics and employment that most market analysts use to predict demand for housing. This feeds into well understood models for household formation, the age at which people start having children, and the time when they purchase their first home. Recent studies are showing that the high cost of housing, combined with higher interest rates rates are reducing the number of new homes being sold to first time buyers across the US. The Mortgage Bankers Association published a new report earlier this week that outlines some startling statistics for single family home sales. We're going to look at these numbers and then infer what the implications might be for property investors, specifically in the apartment space and in the built to rent segment. Historically, first time home buyers have accounted for an average of 36% of home purchase transactions over the past 20 years. For 2024, this proportion fell to an all time low of 24% of purchases. First homes are being purchased nearly a decade later than historic norms. All of the major national home builders are reporting a slowdown in home sales and an acute slowdown in first time home buyers. Pulte homes, the nation's third largest home builder reported an 11% decline in first time home sales. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Should you invest in gold for the long term? Gold has been a great asset to hold over the last year, but I remain a skeptic of investing in gold long term. I personally don't own any gold nor would I recommend buying gold at this point in time. While the recent gains in the price of gold look attractive, given the fact it is up over 20% so far this year in a difficult market, the long-term results aren't enticing. There are periods of time where gold has been a strong performer, but trying to guess those periods is extremely difficult. If we look at January 1980 gold reached $850 per ounce, but the important number here is that the inflation adjusted price was $3,486 per ounce. This means it was not until recently when gold hit $3,500 per ounce, we see an all-time high on an inflation adjusted basis and essentially you made no real gain for over 45 years. At the end of the day gold is just a piece of metal worth only what the next person will pay for it. It has no earnings, no interest, no rents. This makes it extremely difficult to value and given the added expenses for trading and holding gold, it just does not make sense to me. I will continue to invest in good strong businesses at fair prices as I believe that is the best strategy for long term wealth creation.   Why is the government supporting universities with large endowments? I've never really thought about this before. I have known that some big universities have multibillion dollar endowment funds, but I did not realize that 658 institutions have approximately $874 billion, which is nearly $1trillion in endowment funds. When I dug a little bit deeper, I discovered that in addition to these universities receiving money from the federal government via grants, some pay little or no income tax and also get a waiver on property taxes. If you're starting to get a little bit irritated at this point because your hard-working dollars are going to universities like Harvard that has a $53 billion endowment or Yale with a $41 billion endowment, you might be like me and think it's time that things change. The cost of tuition at Harvard is $57,000 per year and the President makes about $1.3 million a year. The president of San Diego State University has a salary of $531,000 and the cost for one year of tuition is about $8700. I'm sure the students at Harvard do receive a more prestigious education than at San Diego State University, but is it 6 1/2 times better? Do the students that graduate from Harvard make a salary that's 600% more than a graduate from San Diego State University? I don't think so. I wondered where money from these endowments goes and basically 48.1% of endowment distributions go to fund student financial aid, 17.7% goes to academic programs and research, 10.8% is used for endowment faculty positions and nearly 17% of the endowment funds are used for other purposes. Wouldn't it be nice to know what those purposes are? I think we need to take a hard look at what universities have in their endowment funds, their tax benefits and grants, and let's have more students here in the United States benefit from those billions of dollars to get a good education as opposed to the fat cats in the Ivy League towers of the universities. One other point I found interesting was the investing philosophy for these endowment funds. The goal is to earn around 8% per year and pay out 4.5% to 5% to fund those various expenses. This should then allow the endowment fund to continue growing. A big problem is many have not been able to achieve that goal with only 25% of 152 schools that were surveyed being able to meet the 8% return over the last 10 years. The other concern is if they can't cut expenses if there is a lack of grants, many endowments are not liquid. Harvard for example had 39% in private equity, 32% in hedge funds, 5% in real estate, 3% in real assets, and just 3% in cash. With all this said I really believe this system should be reviewed to better the entire country, rather than just the Ivy League system.   Could the trade wars hurt home prices? We are starting to see some cracks in the housing market, such as the delinquency rate on FHA mortgages, which cater to the high-risk borrowers who can't qualify for a conventional mortgage because they either have a small down payment or weak credit. The delinquency rate for FHA currently stands at 11% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, it has not been at this level for 12 years. Unfortunately, and we warned against it, but many people have stretched themselves too far financially to get into a home over the last few years. Because it's only been two or three years since they bought their home, after fees and commissions they may not have much if any equity built up in that home. Another area of weakness that is being seen is with the homebuilders who have really increased their incentives because they have more completed but unsold homes. The builders are getting a little bit worried because they have not seen this many homes sitting on their lots with no buyers since 2009. The average incentives for homebuilders is usually around 5% of the total value of the home, but we are starting to see some incentives around 13% from big builders like Lennar. The volatility of the 10-year treasury, which mortgages generally trade off of, has not been helpful because it has had a wide trading range lately. This then makes it difficult for homebuyers to lock in a good rate. At this point in time, I think I would be waiting to buy a home until maybe late summer. I think there should be some good deals at that point in time as the tariff war should continue to progress and we should have a clearer picture of the economy by that time.   Financial Planning: Why converting 100% of pretax is bad Roth conversions can be a powerful tax planning tool, but like any tool, using it the wrong way can do more harm than good. One of the most common mistakes we see is the idea that you should convert all of your pre-tax retirement savings, like a traditional IRA or 401(k), to a Roth account. Everyone loves the idea of a tax-free retirement. When you convert money from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, you're moving it from a pre-tax account to a tax-free account, but there's a price, the converted amount is considered income and you must pay ordinary income tax in the year of the conversion. Once converted funds grow tax-free. The best way to think about money in a pre-tax account is that it is deferred income.  It will be taxed, it's just a matter of when.  When you make contributions to a pre-tax account, you are not receiving a tax deduction, you are deferring income to a future year. When performing a Roth conversion, you are voluntarily deciding to pay tax on that income, even though you don't have to yet.  This only makes sense if you are able to convert at a lower tax rate than you would otherwise be subject to if you did not convert.  This most commonly happens between the beginning of retirement, typically in your 60's, and the beginning of your required distributions at age 75. During that period taxable income is generally lower which means conversions may be done at a lower tax rate than when required distributions begin at 75. Required distributions can be a problem because if you have too much in pre-tax accounts, your required taxable distributions may push you into a higher tax bracket and trigger IRMAA.  Roth conversions help this by shifting funds from pre-tax to tax-free, therefore reducing the level of taxable distributions beginning at 75.  However there is an efficient amount that should be converted for every person.  Converting 100% of pre-tax funds means you will likely be in a lower tax bracket after the conversions, and will potentially not have any tax liability at all.  This doesn't sound bad, but it means you likely paid too much in tax to convert the funds in the first place.  Again, money in a pre-tax account is deferred income that will be taxed.  The goal is to have that income taxed at the lowest rate possible.  If you convert too aggressively you may be settling for a higher tax rate on the money coming out and not receive enough tax-free income from the Roth to justify it.  Instead, structuring withdrawals and conversions to keep your taxable income consistently low all through retirement will result in a higher level of after-tax income.   Companies Discussed: Netflix (NFLX), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) & UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH)

Welcome to Loan Officer Freedom, the #1 podcast in the country for loan officers, hosted by Carl White. In this episode, your hosts, Carl White and Owen Lee dive into the latest updates on the mortgage industry, focusing on the recently introduced trigger lead bill in Congress. Owen shares key highlights from the Mortgage Bankers Association's advocacy conference, revealing strong bipartisan support for the bill aimed at regulating trigger leads. They also discuss the implications of this legislation, the role of AI in the industry, and the potential timeline for its passage. Don't miss this engaging conversation that sheds light on the future of mortgage lending! Schedule a one-on-one free coaching call, click here or visit LoanOfficerStrategyCall.com.

This podcast segment draws inspiration from Rory McIlroy's comeback win at the Masters to emphasize the importance of mindset, perseverance, and staying focused on long-term success over short-term fluctuations.-----------------------------------------David G. Kittle, CMB is a highly respected leader in the mortgage industry, with over 45 years of experience. He is the Co-Founder and Chairman of The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), a mortgage lending cooperative providing members with access to resources and tools to improve their business operations.Kittle began his mortgage banking career with American Fletcher Mortgage Company as a top-producing loan officer in 1978 moving to the management side in 1986 with Southmark Mortgage. He opened Associates Mortgage Group, the first of his three lending companies in 1994.Kittle served as MORPAC Chairman for MBA, from 2004-2006. He is past President of both the Louisville and Kentucky Mortgage Bankers Associations, as well as leading the industry through its most tumultuous period as Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington DC in 2009. Kittle has testified before congress 14 times.Kittle has been a driving force behind the growth and success of TMC, working to bring together mortgage lenders from across the country to share best practices and collaborate on key industry issues. Kittle has also been a vocal advocate for innovation and technology adoption in the mortgage industry, urging lenders to embrace new tools and strategies to improve their operations and better serve their customers.Kittle is a frequent speaker at industry events and conferences, sharing his expertise on a variety of topics related to mortgage lending.He resides in Louisville, Kentucky, he has four children and two grandchildren.

In this episode of Lykken on Lending, we sit down with Bob Broeksmit, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, for a timely and insightful conversation on the state of the mortgage industry. From key advocacy efforts on Capitol Hill to the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bob shares updates on GSE reform, HUD leadership, and the regulatory shifts shaping housing finance today. We also dive into market trends like consumer direct lending and the implications of recent M&A activity—including Rocket's headline-grabbing moves. If you're looking for a front-row seat to the forces driving mortgage policy and market dynamics, this episode is a must-listen.

This podcast segment covers the Mortgage Bankers Association urging the FHFA to simplify its credit score modernization initiative, citing concerns over complexity, consumer cost, and implementation readiness.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communication at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

We break down the Federal Reserve's latest rate decision, the release of their minutes, the press conference, and the updated Summary of Economic Projections. We'll also take a look at key macroeconomic highlights from the past week, including retail sales, housing data, and insights from regional Fed surveys and indices. Finally, we sift for some key takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association's Q4 2024 report on commercial mortgage debt outstanding. Key Moments:01:36 Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Economic Projections06:27 Impact on Commercial Real Estate08:18 Macro Highlights: Retail Sales and Housing Data10:44 Manufacturing Indexes and Industrial Real Estate19:41 Financial Conditions and Stress Indexes24:18 Mortgage Bankers Association Q4 Report29:07 Upcoming Conferences and Events Resources Mentioned:FOMC meeting – https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20250319.htmAdvance Monthly Sales For Retail And Food Services, February 2025 - https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdfMonthly New Residential Constructino, February 2025 - https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.htmlEmpire State Manufacturing Survey - https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overviewPhilly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/manufacturing-business-outlook-surveyMortgage Bankers Association's Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding quarterly report - https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2025/03/18/commercial-and-multifamily-mortgage-debt-outstanding-increased--47.7-billion-in-third-quarter-of-2024Email us - altusresearch@altusgroup.comThanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Aging brings challenges, but the mindset we bring to it can make all the difference. In this episode, Dr. Joe Casciani welcomes David Lereah. David is the founder of United We Age, to explore the power of positive aging, resilience, and community engagement. David shares his remarkable journey surviving stage 3 esophageal cancer and how it transformed his perspective on aging. And how this led him to champion support programs for seniors. Together, they discuss: How mindset and resilience impact aging outcomes The importance of engaging seniors in meaningful activities Support systems for residents in long-term care How volunteers and youth programs can help bridge the generational gap The role of storytelling and shared experiences in positive aging Join us as we explore ways to help seniors find purpose and cope with challenges. And hear more about embracing a mindset of growth and optimism.

Aging brings challenges, but the mindset we bring to it can make all the difference. In this episode, Dr. Joe Casciani welcomes David Lereah. David is the founder of United We Age, to explore the power of positive aging, resilience, and community engagement. David shares his remarkable journey surviving stage 3 esophageal cancer and how it transformed his perspective on aging. And how this led him to champion support programs for seniors. Together, they discuss: How mindset and resilience impact aging outcomes The importance of engaging seniors in meaningful activities Support systems for residents in long-term care How volunteers and youth programs can help bridge the generational gap The role of storytelling and shared experiences in positive aging Join us as we explore ways to help seniors find purpose and cope with challenges. And hear more about embracing a mindset of growth and optimism.

In this episode of The Deep Dive, we explore the complexities of the global real estate market as of early 2025. Join us as we discuss the latest trends with insights from reputable sources like JLL's Global Real Estate Outlook Report, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Freddie Mac. Discover how easing interest rates in major economies and geopolitical factors are shaping the market's current trajectory. We examine the impact on homeowners, buyers, and renters, explore regional differences within the United States, and analyze the challenges in Asia-Pacific, particularly China's struggling property market. We also delve into the technological innovations transforming real estate, from AI-driven market predictions to automation in property management. Lastly, we consider the ongoing effects of climate change and natural disasters on property values and the future of sustainable living. Tune in to equip yourself with the knowledge to navigate the evolving landscape of global real estate. Note: AI Powered Podcast episode

This podcast segment explores regional mortgage production trends, the impact of economic conditions on lending, cost-cutting strategies for mortgage lenders, and key industry events shaping the future of housing finance.-----------------------------------------David G. Kittle, CMB is a highly respected leader in the mortgage industry, with over 45 years of experience. He is the Co-Founder and Chairman of The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), a mortgage lending cooperative providing members with access to resources and tools to improve their business operations.Kittle began his mortgage banking career with American Fletcher Mortgage Company as a top-producing loan officer in 1978 moving to the management side in 1986 with Southmark Mortgage. He opened Associates Mortgage Group, the first of his three lending companies in 1994.Kittle served as MORPAC Chairman for MBA, from 2004-2006. He is past President of both the Louisville and Kentucky Mortgage Bankers Associations, as well as leading the industry through its most tumultuous period as Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington DC in 2009. Kittle has testified before congress 14 times.Kittle has been a driving force behind the growth and success of TMC, working to bring together mortgage lenders from across the country to share best practices and collaborate on key industry issues. Kittle has also been a vocal advocate for innovation and technology adoption in the mortgage industry, urging lenders to embrace new tools and strategies to improve their operations and better serve their customers.Kittle is a frequent speaker at industry events and conferences, sharing his expertise on a variety of topics related to mortgage lending.He resides in Louisville, Kentucky, he has four children and two grandchildren.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, about the trade group's priorities under the Trump administration. Related to this episode: Bob Broeksmit outlines MBA priorities under Trump administration | HousingWire HousingWire | YouTube More info about HousingWire   Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

D.O. hosts an unscripted, raw Q&A session with the Mortgage Bankers Association of Central Florida. From rookie mistakes to scaling your business, this episode delivers actionable insights from industry leaders who are in the trenches daily.

Homeownership is a dream many aspire to, but sadly don't have access to due to affordability. Before they can even think of affording a mortgage…getting money for a down payment can be a real struggle.  What a lot of people don't know is that there are down payment assistance programs that can help them get into a home.  80% of home buyers qualify for down payment help but only 15% actually use it. As agents, this provides a lucrative opportunity to provide a valuable solution.  Down payment help is the perfect marketing message to put in front of buyers right now. We can win more business by leveraging a valuable resource that will get more people into homes, save them lots of money and help them build equity faster.  And it will put more dollars in our own pockets too!   How do we leverage these programs to bring more value to buyers? How does this offering add to our marketing prowess?  In this episode, I'm joined by founder and CEO of Down Payment Resource, Rob Chrane. He shares how we can add down payment assistance to our toolkit.    Things You'll Learn In This Episode  Closing the 65% home affordability gap  There's a huge gap between the down payment assistance that's available and the people who actually use it. What can agents do to get these valuable resources to more people, and how will it put more money in your pocket?  Erase the negativity  A lot of people - agents and consumers alike have negative connotations of FHA programs. How does this negativity rob us of lucrative opportunities?   Another way to add value to buyers  Down payment assistance doesn't just apply to buyers - it also applies to houses. How can real estate professionals use this to win more business?  Guest Bio Rob Chrane is founder and CEO of Down Payment Resource and a leader in the homeownership affordability space. A 30-year veteran of the real estate and mortgage industries, Chrane launched the only comprehensive database of U.S. homebuyer assistance programs and developed tools that empower lenders, borrowers and real estate professionals to connect homebuyers with affordability programs. Chrane actively collaborates with housing organizations and coalitions such as the Urban Land Institute, National Fair Housing Alliance and the Mortgage Bankers Association's CONVERGENCE initiative. He is a frequent speaker at national and local events on the topic of homeownership affordability. To learn more about how you can leverage this tool, visit https://downpaymentresource.com/.    About Your Host ​​Licensed Managing Broker, REALTORS®, avid volunteer, and Major Donor, Marki Lemons Ryhal is dedicated to all things real estate. With over 25 years of marketing experience, Marki has taught over 250,000 REALTORS® how to earn up to a 2682% return on their marketing dollars. Six-time REALTOR® Conference and Expo featured attendee, one of 100 speakers selected to speak the REALTOR® Conference & Expo five times, and an Inman closing Keynote Speaker. Marki's expertise has been featured in Forbes, Washington Post, http://Homes.com , and REALTOR® Magazine.   Check out this episode on our website, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify, and don't forget to leave a review if you like what you heard. Your review feeds the algorithm so our show reaches more people. Thank you!

In this episode of the Housing Supply Accelerator series, Emily Pasi, Director of Public Affairs at the American Planning Association, chats with Robert Broeksmit, President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. The two discuss why MBA joined the Housing Supply Accelerator; how the economics of the housing crisis impacts the real estate finance industry; the importance of bringing the lending community's voice to the table when crafting policy; how local government can close housing development finance gaps; public-private partnerships as a financing solution; demystifying housing finance for community planners, and much more. Episode URL: https://planning.org/podcast/housing-supply-accelerator-an-interview-with-mortgage-bankers-association-president-and-ceo-robert-broeksmit/

Dive into the complexities of RESPA compliance with Marx Sterbcow as he unpacks the regulatory challenges shaping the title and real estate industry. From affiliated business arrangements to the ongoing evolution of compliance, this episode offers everything you need to succeed in today's intricate regulatory landscape. What you'll learn from this episode The critical role of transparency and accuracy in affiliated business disclosure forms How industry consolidation is reshaping the title and real estate markets Why engaging with regulators builds trust and fosters compliance Emerging trends in technology and AI enforcement in regulatory actions Strategies to mitigate risks associated with marketing arrangements and social media oversights Resources mentioned in this episode Respro® October Research United States Department of Housing and Urban Development Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) Freddie Mac Fannie Mae Townstone Financial National Association of REALTORS® Compass Berkshire Hathaway Keller Williams RE/MAX CoStar Apartments.com LoopNet The Firm by John Grisham | Paperback, Hardcover, and Kindle No Good Deed Goes Unpunished by E. James Harrison | Paperback and Kindle About Marx Sterbcow Marx is the Managing Attorney in the New Orleans-based law firm, Sterbcow Law Group LLC. Sterbcow's practice focuses on RESPA, TILA & Regulation Z, UDAAP, Fair Lending Act, federal and state mortgage lending and consumer credit compliance issues, real estate brokerage programs, affiliated business arrangements, marketing and promotional program guidance, licensing, and lead generation compliance matters. He also represents clients in connection with mortgage fraud, RESPA, and other administrative enforcement actions.   Marx graduated from Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana, with a bachelor's degree in history and political science, Gonzaga University School of Law in Spokane, Washington, with a J.D., and the John Marshall School of Law's Center for Real Estate Law in Chicago, Illinois, with an LLM.   Marx represented the National Association of Mortgage Brokers in its efforts to challenge the Federal Reserve Board on its Regulation Z loan officer compensation rule. He serves on the Regulatory & Policy Committee for the Real Estate Services Providers Council (RESPRO) and is active in the Mortgage Bankers Association, American Land Title Association, Louisiana Land Title Association (Vice President 2014-15), New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Title Attorneys (Vice President) and the National Association of Mortgage Brokers. He is a frequent speaker at industry conferences. Connect with Marx Website: Sterbcow Law Group LinkedIn: Marx Sterbcow     Connect With Us Love what you're hearing? Don't miss an episode! Follow us on our social media channels and stay connected.   Explore more on our website: www.alltechnational.com/podcast Stay updated with our newsletter: www.mochoumil.com Follow Mo on LinkedIn: Mo Choumil

Following the 2024 election, Donald Trump's return to the presidency, along with anticipated Republican Senate control, signals potential shifts in mortgage policy, GSE reform, and regulatory leadership, with the Mortgage Bankers Association planning further analysis on implications for the industry.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, Director of Public Affairs at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Bill Killmer, Senior Vice President of Legislative and Political Affairs at the Mortgage Bankers Association, about the election and the issues MBA is working on across the aisle. Related to this episode: Election season is in the air at MBA Annual | HousingWire Mortgage Bankers Assocation Bill Killmer | LinkedIn HousingWire | YouTube More info about HousingWire   Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the dream of homeownership slipping away? Joining us in this episode is Pete Mills, Senior Vice President of the Mortgage Bankers Association, to provide his expert perspective on the affordability crisis.   We discuss the complexities of today's market, including the impact of interest rates, buyer agent compensation, and financing challenges. Pete sheds light on the role of local governments in addressing supply issues and explores innovative solutions for making homeownership more accessible.   We also unpack how the Mortgage Bankers Association worked with the VA on the changes made post settlement and the Harris housing plan. This episode is packed with insights on the ever changing industry landscape.   Connect with Pete on LinkedIn and learn more about Mortgage Banker Association at www.mba.org/home.    Follow Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered Podcast on Instagram - YouTube - Facebook - TikTok. Visit us online at realestateinsidersunfiltered.com. Link to Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/RealEstateInsidersUnfiltered Link to Instagram Page: https://www.instagram.com/realestateinsiderspod/ Link to YouTube Page: https://www.youtube.com/@RealEstateInsidersUnfiltered Link to TikTok Page: https://www.tiktok.com/@realestateinsiderspod This podcast is produced by Two Brothers Creative 2024.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Bob Broeksmit, the president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, about the latest news for independent mortgage banks regarding the election, updates to the HUD 203k program, Basel III re-proposal wins and more. Broeksmit will be a featured speaker at HousingWire's IMB Summit on Oct. 1. Related to this episode: IMB Summit ‘Common sense has prevailed' as Basel Endgame proposal will be revised HousingWire | YouTube More info about HousingWire Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

GARY ACOSTA BIO Gary Acosta is an entrepreneur, public policy advocate, and investor. He is the Co-Founder & CEO of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP ), one of the largest Hispanic business organizations in the nation. He also created the Hispanic Wealth Project, co-founded L'ATTITUDE, and is a general partner of its fund, L'ATTITUDE Ventures.   A self-described serial entrepreneur, Mr. Acosta has founded several mortgage, real estate, and technology companies, including New Vista Asset Management, which, between 2009 and 2013, managed and marketed more than 10,000 real estate assets for banks and other financial institutions, CounselorMax, a web-based process management system for non-profit housing counselors, and RealEstateEspanol.com, an online real estate portal for Spanish-speaking Americans, which eventually sold to a publicly traded company.  Gary served on the inaugural consumer advisory board (CAB) of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and was a member of the boards of directors of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America and Stewart Title Company of California. He writes a weekly blog about business and current events at garyacosta.com. Gary grew up in Montebello, California and attended the University of California, at San Diego and Pomona College, where he played varsity basketball for Hall of Fame Coach, Gregg Popovich.  Note: Our first episode was released one day before last year's L'Attitude with Gary's co-founder as our guest, Sol Trujillo.  RELATED LINKS Blog NAHREP L'Attitude Profile NBC GENERAL INFO| TOP OF THE GAME: Official website: https://topofthegame-thepod.com/ RSS Feed: https://feed.podbean.com/topofthegame-thepod/feed.xml Hosting service show website: https://topofthegame-thepod.podbean.com/ Javier's LinkTree: https://linktr.ee/javiersaade  SUPPORT & CONNECT: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/96934564 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61551086203755 Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOPOFGAMEpod Subscribe on Podbean: https://www.podbean.com/site/podcatcher/index/blog/vLKLE1SKjf6G Email us: info@topofthegame-thepod.com   THANK YOU FOR LISTENING – AVAILABLE ON ALL MAJOR PLATFORMS

The Mortgage Bankers Association announces that FHFA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac have delayed the implementation of their Reconsideration of Value (ROV) policies to October 31st, following MBA's request for an extension to allow lenders more time to comply.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, Director of Public Affairs at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is urging its members to contact their Senators to support the addition of the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act of 2024 to the Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act, a critical step in curbing the abusive use of trigger leads.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, Director of Public Affairs at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

David Kittle emphasizes the critical role of leadership and communication in the mortgage industry, noting stable production levels and discussing potential impacts of rate cuts on refinancing and mortgage servicing rights.-----------------------------------------David G. Kittle, CMB is a highly respected leader in the mortgage industry, with over 45 years of experience. He is the Co-Founder and Chairman of The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), a mortgage lending cooperative providing members with access to resources and tools to improve their business operations.Kittle began his mortgage banking career with American Fletcher Mortgage Company as a top-producing loan officer in 1978 moving to the management side in 1986 with Southmark Mortgage. He opened Associates Mortgage Group, the first of his three lending companies in 1994.Kittle served as MORPAC Chairman for MBA, from 2004-2006. He is past President of both the Louisville and Kentucky Mortgage Bankers Associations, as well as leading the industry through its most tumultuous period as Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington DC in 2009. Kittle has testified before congress 14 times.Kittle has been a driving force behind the growth and success of TMC, working to bring together mortgage lenders from across the country to share best practices and collaborate on key industry issues. Kittle has also been a vocal advocate for innovation and technology adoption in the mortgage industry, urging lenders to embrace new tools and strategies to improve their operations and better serve their customers.Kittle is a frequent speaker at industry events and conferences, sharing his expertise on a variety of topics related to mortgage lending.He resides in Louisville, Kentucky, he has four children and two grandchildren.

Discover the lenders active in the commercial market and the latest in delinquency and distress, plus tips for lenders and borrowers. Jamie Woodwell, Head of Commercial Real Estate Research with the Mortgage Bankers Association joins broker and CEO Michael Bull to explore opportunities.  CREi Summit 2024 - CRE Digital Marketing & Social Media Conference in Atlanta, GA September 11-13: https://creisummit.com/ CCIM + C5 Summit 2024 - CRE Conference Covering Every Area of the Industry in Hollywood, FL September 17-19: https://c5summit.realestate/ Bull Realty - Customized Asset & Occupancy Solutions: https://www.bullrealty.com/ Commercial Agent Success Strategies - The ultimate commercial broker training resource: https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ Watch the video versions of our show on YouTube! https://www.youtube.com/c/Commercialrealestateshow Follow us at: @BullRealty https://twitter.com/bullrealty @CRE_show https://twitter.com/CRE_show

David Kittle discusses the potential implications of the Supreme Court's Chevron decision on the mortgage industry, emphasizing the likelihood of increased litigation against regulators and the ongoing regulatory challenges faced by the industry, while also noting positive membership growth of TMC in the credit union space.-----------------------------------------David G. Kittle, CMB is a highly respected leader in the mortgage industry, with over 45 years of experience. He is the Co-Founder and Chairman of The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), a mortgage lending cooperative providing members with access to resources and tools to improve their business operations.Kittle began his mortgage banking career with American Fletcher Mortgage Company as a top-producing loan officer in 1978 moving to the management side in 1986 with Southmark Mortgage. He opened Associates Mortgage Group, the first of his three lending companies in 1994.Kittle served as MORPAC Chairman for MBA, from 2004-2006. He is past President of both the Louisville and Kentucky Mortgage Bankers Associations, as well as leading the industry through its most tumultuous period as Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington DC in 2009. Kittle has testified before congress 14 times.Kittle has been a driving force behind the growth and success of TMC, working to bring together mortgage lenders from across the country to share best practices and collaborate on key industry issues. Kittle has also been a vocal advocate for innovation and technology adoption in the mortgage industry, urging lenders to embrace new tools and strategies to improve their operations and better serve their customers.Kittle is a frequent speaker at industry events and conferences, sharing his expertise on a variety of topics related to mortgage lending.He resides in Louisville, Kentucky, he has four children and two grandchildren.

Douglas G. Duncan is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae where he is responsible for forecasts and analyses of the economy and the housing and mortgage markets. Duncan also oversees strategic research regarding the potential impact of external factors on the housing industry. He leads the House Price Forecast Working Group reporting to the Finance Committee. Named one of Bloomberg/BusinessWeek's 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate, Duncan is Fannie Mae's source for information and analyses on demographics and the external business and economic environment; the implications of changes in economic activity on the company's strategy and execution; and for forecasting overall housing, economic, and mortgage market activity.Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Duncan was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. In this episode: Housing market trends, focusing on analysis of mortgage rates for Generation XRise of insurance costMigration and ImmigrationGen Xers ability to afford housingHow the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election May Impact Real EstateThe Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

David Kittle discusses the mortgage industry's advocacy efforts in Washington, DC, highlighting the political nature of agencies like Fannie and Freddie, the disconnect between regulatory conversations and outcomes, and the importance of direct engagement with regulators.-----------------------------------------David G. Kittle, CMB is a highly respected leader in the mortgage industry, with over 45 years of experience. He is the Co-Founder and Chairman of The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), a mortgage lending cooperative providing members with access to resources and tools to improve their business operations.Kittle began his mortgage banking career with American Fletcher Mortgage Company as a top-producing loan officer in 1978 moving to the management side in 1986 with Southmark Mortgage. He opened Associates Mortgage Group, the first of his three lending companies in 1994.Kittle served as MORPAC Chairman for MBA, from 2004-2006. He is past President of both the Louisville and Kentucky Mortgage Bankers Associations, as well as leading the industry through its most tumultuous period as Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington DC in 2009. Kittle has testified before congress 14 times.Kittle has been a driving force behind the growth and success of TMC, working to bring together mortgage lenders from across the country to share best practices and collaborate on key industry issues. Kittle has also been a vocal advocate for innovation and technology adoption in the mortgage industry, urging lenders to embrace new tools and strategies to improve their operations and better serve their customers.Kittle is a frequent speaker at industry events and conferences, sharing his expertise on a variety of topics related to mortgage lending.He resides in Louisville, Kentucky, he has four children and two grandchildren.

It's Thursday, June 20th, A.D. 2024. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard at www.TheWorldview.com. I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Jonathan Clark 11 Christians released from prison in India Praise God! A law firm in India secured the release of 11 Christians from prison last week. They had faced detention since 2022 under anti-conversion laws. The law firm specifically works with persecuted Christians. The 11 believers included several pastors as well as converts out of Hinduism. Nearly half of India's states have anti-conversion laws. Christians often face targeted oppression and false charges under the laws. Since 2020, officials have jailed hundreds of Christians.  According to Open Doors, India is the 11th most difficult country worldwide in which to be a Christian. Hungary is allowed to ban assisted suicide Last Thursday, the European Court of Human Rights upheld Hungary's ban on assisted suicide.  A Hungarian national challenged the ban after having been diagnosed with a progressive neurodegenerative condition. However, the court ruled that Hungary's ban on assisted suicide is in line with its duty to protect life. Jean-Paul Van De Walle with Alliance Defending Freedom International said, “We applaud today's decision ... which upholds Hungary's essential human rights protections. ... Instead of abandoning our most vulnerable citizens, society should do all it can to provide the best standards of care.”  Christian baker's refusal to make cake celebrating incorrect gender In the United States, Christian baker Jack Phillips is defending himself again before the Colorado Supreme Court. Phillips' latest case is over his refusal to make a cake in celebration of someone pretending to be the opposite sex. Twenty-three states and six Colorado legislators have filed briefs with the court in favor of Phillips. On Tuesday, he said, “I will not create a cake expressing any message that violates my religious beliefs regardless of who asks for it. ... Over the last ten years, Colorado officials and activists have tried to punish me for my religious beliefs.” Psalm 14:4 asks, “Have all the workers of iniquity no knowledge, who eat up my people as they eat bread, and do not call on the LORD?” Federal court vs. Biden on abortion On Monday, a federal court in Louisiana ruled against the Biden administration in an abortion case. The court protected the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and other Catholic organizations from having to cover abortions for employees. Laura Slavis with Becket Law said the Biden administration “twisted a law protecting expecting mothers and their babies and co-opted the workplaces of over 130 million Americans to support abortion. That is an abuse of power. … No one should have to choose between their conscience and protecting pregnant women.” Louisiana: First state requiring Ten Commandments in public schools Louisiana is now the first state to require public schools to display the Ten Commandments in every classroom. Republican Governor Jeff Landry signed the bill into law yesterday. The legislation applies to state-funded universities. It also allows schools to display the Mayflower Compact and the Declaration of Independence.  Republican state Representative Dodie Horton authored the bill. She said, “I hope and I pray that Louisiana is the first state to allow moral code to be placed back in the classrooms. Since I was in kindergarten [at a private school], it was always on the wall. I learned there was a God, and I knew to honor Him and His laws.” Deuteronomy 6:7 and 9 says of God's commandments, “You shall teach them diligently to your children. … You shall write them on the doorposts of your house and on your gates.” Mortgage rates fell below 7% Last week, for the first time since March, mortgage rates fell below 7%. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates fell from 7.02% to 6.94%. And five-year adjustable-rate mortgages fell from 6.45% to 6.27%.  At the same time, mortgage applications are rising. The Mortgage Bankers Association noted “purchase volume is still more than 10% behind last year's pace,” but they are “forecasting a pickup in home sales for the remainder of the year as more inventory is hitting the market.” Nvidia: Mist valuable company worldwide American tech company Nvidia is now the most valuable company in the world. It produces most of the semiconductor chips used by Artificial Intelligence technology. Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion earlier this month, becoming more valuable than Apple. On Tuesday, Nvidia's valuation rose to $3.33 trillion, surpassing Microsoft.  Nvidia's valuation was about $1 trillion a year ago, and has grown over 170% this year alone. 103-year-old World War II veteran prays daily A World War II veteran is still going strong at the age of 103. Ralph Conte was drafted at the age of 21. He served in the U.S. Army across nine countries in Europe during World War II. He received a Purple Heart after being struck by shrapnel.  Conte married "the love of his life," Veronica Sarubbi, in 1943. They had five children, eight grandchildren, and five great-grandchildren. Conte went on to open his own photography business. His granddaughter Jessica Graf told Fox News Digital, “Even at 103, he still has an eye for a sharp picture. … My grandfather inspires me every day to keep moving, live in the moment, and not worry about things that are out of our control.” She said he has a “deep faith in God” and “continues to pray daily.”  10 Worldview listeners donated $2,615 And finally, toward our $63,000 goal by this Saturday, June 22nd – the three-week mark of our month-long fundraiser – 10 Worldview listeners stepped up to the plate to help fund our 6-member team for another fiscal year. Our thanks to Kathryn in Reddick, Florida, Robert in Brashear, Missouri, and Rebecca in Kokomo, Indiana – each of whom gave $25. We appreciate Karl in Grand Rapids, Michigan who gave $100, Dan in Alturas, Florida who gave $200, and Rose in Everson, Washington who gave $240. And we're thankful to God for Cathy in Fate, Texas who pledged $25/month for 12 months for a gift of $300, John in Auburn, Washington who gave $500, Tim and Ann in Huffman, Texas who gave $600, and an anonymous donor in Helena, Montana who pledged $50/month for 12 months for a gift of $600. Those 11 donors gave $2,615.  Ready for our new grand total? Drum roll please. (sound effect of drum roll) $ 48,455.16 (audience cheering) Toward this Saturday, June 22nd's goal of $63,000, we need to raise $14,544.84. We need 6 people to pledge $100 per month for 12 months, 7 people to pledge $50 per month for 12 months, and 12 people to pledge $25/month for 12 months. Will you step up to the plate? Please go to TheWorldview.com, click on “Give,” select the dollar amount you'd like to donate, and click on the recurring monthly tab if that's your wish. Ask God what He wants you to give to this newscast that proclaims Jesus Christ as our standard for Truth. Close And that's The Worldview on this Thursday, June 20th, in the year of our Lord 2024. Subscribe by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com. Or get the Generations app through Google Play or The App Store. I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

Douglas G. Duncan is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae where he is responsible for forecasts and analyses of the economy and the housing and mortgage markets. Duncan also oversees strategic research regarding the potential impact of external factors on the housing industry. He leads the House Price Forecast Working Group reporting to the Finance Committee. Named one of Bloomberg/BusinessWeek's 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate, Duncan is Fannie Mae's source for information and analyses on demographics and the external business and economic environment; the implications of changes in economic activity on the company's strategy and execution; and for forecasting overall housing, economic, and mortgage market activity.Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Duncan was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. In this episode:Fannie Mae's role as an insurance company for mortgagesWhat are the housing market drivers?Housing market trends and consumer sentimentFederal Reserve's role in regulating banks and controlling inflationFed's inflation target, debt, and monetary policyThe Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669.  For more information on hard money lending, go www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show

David Kittle discusses recent advocacy efforts in Washington D.C., regulatory challenges, and the impact of new regulations on the mortgage industry.-----------------------------------------David G. Kittle, CMB is a highly respected leader in the mortgage industry, with over 45 years of experience. He is the Co-Founder and Chairman of The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), a mortgage lending cooperative providing members with access to resources and tools to improve their business operations.Kittle began his mortgage banking career with American Fletcher Mortgage Company as a top-producing loan officer in 1978 moving to the management side in 1986 with Southmark Mortgage. He opened Associates Mortgage Group, the first of his three lending companies in 1994.Kittle served as MORPAC Chairman for MBA, from 2004-2006. He is past President of both the Louisville and Kentucky Mortgage Bankers Associations, as well as leading the industry through its most tumultuous period as Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington DC in 2009. Kittle has testified before congress 14 times.Kittle has been a driving force behind the growth and success of TMC, working to bring together mortgage lenders from across the country to share best practices and collaborate on key industry issues. Kittle has also been a vocal advocate for innovation and technology adoption in the mortgage industry, urging lenders to embrace new tools and strategies to improve their operations and better serve their customers.Kittle is a frequent speaker at industry events and conferences, sharing his expertise on a variety of topics related to mortgage lending.He resides in Louisville, Kentucky, he has four children and two grandchildren.

The CFPB has released a request for information on mortgage transaction fees, prompting the Mortgage Bankers Association to respond and address rising costs and regulatory impacts on borrowers and the mortgage market.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, Director of Public Affairs at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council's recent report on non-bank mortgage servicing includes recommendations to Congress and state regulators aimed at addressing key vulnerabilities, with the Mortgage Bankers Association expressing concerns over increased costs and regulatory complexity.-------------------------------------------------------------Adam DeSanctis, Director of Public Affairs at Mortgage Bankers AssociationAs a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

Exciting news from the VA about buyer agency compensation to ensure veterans aren't disadvantaged post-NAR settlement.

How do you navigate the complexities of the modern housing market? Join us as we sit down with Brian Vieaux, the President and COO of FinLocker, who shares his remarkable journey from the mortgage industry to leading a cutting-edge SaaS platform designed to simplify the home buying process. Brian reveals how FinLocker seamlessly integrates tools like Mint.com, Credit Karma, Rocket Money, and Zillow, offering a cohesive and branded experience for lenders while making homeownership more accessible and less daunting for consumers. Discover the innovative ways this technology is paving the path for first-time homebuyers.  Have you ever wondered what fuels a career pivot from human resources to a thriving sales role in the mortgage industry? Uncover the story of a mortgage professional whose journey was shaped by supportive mentors, a fear of failure, and a passion for homeownership. From their academic background at Michigan State University to the transformative moment that turned a job into a calling, this episode highlights the profound impact of believing in the economic benefits of homeownership and how it shifts sales from mere transactions to delivering substantial consumer value. What does it take to adapt and thrive in the ever-changing mortgage industry? Learn how trust, referrals, and proactive engagement through financial education and social media are becoming pivotal for sales professionals. Brian shares his insights on leveraging LinkedIn for thought leadership, building a personal brand, and maximizing CRM tools to foster meaningful consumer connections. Whether you're a mortgage industry veteran or simply curious about innovative sales strategies, this episode offers invaluable lessons on navigating market fluctuations and enhancing your approach to consumer engagement.  Brian is passionate about financial literacy and empowering lenders with digital financial tools to attract, engage and retain customers. His 30+ years executive career in mortgage banking has positioned him to help lenders execute an embedded finance strategy, transitioning from a transaction focus to one of continuous consumer engagement. Brian began his mortgage banking career with Source One Mortgage, which was acquired by CitiMortgage.  He went on to hold executive leadership roles at prominent lending institutions, most recently leading the TPO business at Flagstar Bank. In 2005, Brian attained the Mortgage Bankers Association industry designation of Certified Mortgage Banker (CMB). Brian is an alumnus of Michigan State University.  Brian is a former RESBOG member and was co-chair of the MBA Wholesale Executive Forum. Currently, Brian is a board member of the Downtown Boxing Gym Youth Program. This non-profit organization has been teaching kids in Detroit's toughest neighborhoods valuable life lessons inside and outside the classroom and boxing ring since 2007.       Quotes: "I'm a huge proponent and fan of the LinkedIn platform. It's worked for me and if you're out there and you're building a sales business as a leader or your job is the frontline sales and especially if you're B2B, I think you need to be on LinkedIn and you need to be, you need to make that part of your job."  "Now, as a loan officer, you have to be really skilled at relationship management, be compassionate and patient and be willing to play a long game of 18 or longer months to earn the right to win the business."  "I don't think there's such thing as a bad CRM. Most of the time when I hear about a bad CRM, it's a bad user of the CRM."    Links: Brian's LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianvieauxcmb/ FinLocker - https://finlocker.com Rethink Everything: You "Know" About Being a Next Gen Loan Officer - https://a.co/d/0bMomXF   Get this episode and all other episodes of Sales Lead Dog at https://empellorcrm.com/salesleaddog/ 

Hi, I'm Adam DeSanctis, this is the Mortgage Minute, the latest news from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Last week, Freddie Mac announced that it updated requirements for using attorney opinion, title letters or AOL is expanding the types of mortgages that are eligible for delivery with an attorney opinion of title letter. expansion includes most mortgages secured by our property located in all US jurisdictions, which removes one of the largest impediments to the broader adoption of AOLs on the Freddie Mac side. Other mortgages and expansion include those secured by a unit in a pre-condo project and those in areas with deed restrictions. These changes are a necessary precondition for the possible broader adoption of AOLs on Freddie Mac loans, but it does remain to be seen whether lenders will choose to use them or if consumers will be aware of the option and MBA continues to monitor developments in the title insurance space. That's it for this week. Thank you for listening!

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, about market trends, including mortgage rates, home equity levels, home prices and lender profitability. Related to this episode: Michael Fratantoni | LinkedIn Mortgage Bankers Association New homes account for one in three homes for sale: Redfin  HousingWire | YouTube Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week's episode, we had the pleasure of hosting Mike Fratantoni, the Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Industry Technology at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mike's insights provided a comprehensive look at the Mortgage forecast on the origination dollar volume, unit increase, headcounts, and the effect of AI technology.

Hi, I'm Adam DeSanctis. This is the Mortgage Minute, the latest news from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Last week, the CFPB published a spring edition of its supervisory highlights focused solely on mortgage servicing. The Bureau's report generally highlights improper assessments of fees and violations of the loss mitigation process and covers examinations that were completed by the Bureau from April 1st of last year through December 31st. Most of the findings appear to involve minor infractions that have been remediated by the servicer. However, MBA in a LinkedIn post by SVP of Residential Policy, Pete Mills, called out the Bureau's press release for its misleading and harmful rhetoric against mortgage servicers by inappropriately ascribing isolated incidents of noncompliance as a general state of the industry. The LinkedIn post, which can be read in full on Pete Mills page or as a repost on MBA's main LinkedIn page, Call the bureau's press release a “disservice to consumers by further sowing fear and distrust of their mortgage servicer”. Looking ahead, the bureau's expected to conduct potential rulemaking to amend the servicing rules of Regulation and be able to keep you updated on this in all issues pertaining to the bureau. That's it for this week. Thank you for listening.

David G. Kittle, CMB is a highly respected leader in the mortgage industry, with over 45 years of experience. He is the Co-Founder and Chairman of The Mortgage Collaborative (TMC), a mortgage lending cooperative providing members with access to resources and tools to improve their business operations.Kittle began his mortgage banking career with American Fletcher Mortgage Company as a top-producing loan officer in 1978 moving to the management side in 1986 with Southmark Mortgage. He opened Associates Mortgage Group, the first of his three lending companies in 1994.Kittle served as MORPAC Chairman for MBA, from 2004-2006. He is past President of both the Louisville and Kentucky Mortgage Bankers Associations, as well as leading the industry through its most tumultuous period as Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington DC in 2009. Kittle has testified before congress 14 times.Kittle has been a driving force behind the growth and success of TMC, working to bring together mortgage lenders from across the country to share best practices and collaborate on key industry issues. Kittle has also been a vocal advocate for innovation and technology adoption in the mortgage industry, urging lenders to embrace new tools and strategies to improve their operations and better serve their customers.Kittle is a frequent speaker at industry events and conferences, sharing his expertise on a variety of topics related to mortgage lending.He resides in Louisville, Kentucky, he has four children and two grandchildren.

Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter Apartment construction is falling. It's not because banks are pulling back from lending. Projects aren't feasible for builders. Housing market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga returns to discuss the real estate market.  We discuss: real estate price movement, affordability concerns, expected mortgage rate changes, migration, price reductions, new homes vs. existing homes. Can anyone even find a new-build $225K detached SFH today? They're nearly extinct. Homebuilders are still buying down mortgage rates for you into the 4%s and 5%s at GREmarketplace.com. America needs more SFHs, especially at the entry-level.  Apartment rents have declined a little. SFH rents are up about 3% year-over-year.  Delinquency and foreclosure activity remains low. These have a strong correlation with unemployment rates. The volume of homes sales should increase this year, but only by perhaps 10%. A recession is still quite possible later this year and expected to be mild. Every region of the nation is currently experiencing residential RE price growth.  When mortgage rates fall, more new buyers than sellers are expected, pushing up property prices. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/496 Inquire about business with Rick: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X: @ricksharga LinkedIn: Rick Sharga For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Tons of new apartments were built last year, but that's abruptly going to change going forward. You'll learn why. Then a housing market intelligence analyst and I break down what's happening in the real estate market and the future direction of rents, prices, foreclosures, interest rates, and a lot more today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE 266866.   Corey Coates (00:01:34) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:50) - Welcome to grow from Alexandria, Egypt, to Alexandria, Virginia, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, holding your inside get rich education. I'm grateful to have you here. A few weeks ago, I discussed all the apartment buildings that were constructed last year. One thing that you'll often hear out there today is that apartment construction is now falling because banks are pulling back on construction lending. But no, it's really not quite that simple. In fact, that's not even the top reason for construction delays now and going forward with apartments. The number one reason for the delays today is that the project is not economically feasible at this time. That's what the NMC tells us. All right. So what does that really mean? Well, it means that projects aren't penciling out.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - In other words, apartment developers, they can't generate the returns that they need to justify the project to their capital partners, those that are funding the building. And this is, by the way, not about greedy developers, because contrary to some of the noise, it's the fact that developers do not self-fund their projects. They get the money from others. So yeah, it's the developer's job to convince investors and lenders to inject that capital. And that is just harder to do right now. Despite developer's best efforts and higher rates are obviously still contributing to the problem. It's not so much that the construction financing is not available, because for residential, it's often there. It's available. The thing is, is that apartment mortgage terms and rates are way less favorable than they were a couple of years ago, as we all know. So developers, I mean, they're paying a higher interest rate then. And you therefore need higher rent to cover that higher interest rate unless you can cut a lot of costs elsewhere and in apartments, you're also getting a lower loan to value ratio.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:55) - So that means developers, they therefore need to raise even more equity in order to cover that gap. And what's happened is a lot of the equity that's shifted away from brand new ground up apartment development, and instead it's gone over into chasing potential lease up distressed deals, properties that are already out there and are having some problems. So that's where the apartment money is moving right now. Not so much to new developers and builders also aren't building many apartments this year because construction costs remain a problem. Some materials got cheaper, others didn't. One bright spot is that construction labor that is getting easier to find. But yet the actual labor cost that really hasn't dropped. Property insurance is higher too, so these rising expenses, that means apartment projects are not penciling out for builders and then apartment rents. They're just not rising that much. That doesn't help. So it's hard for it to rise, since so many were built last year and the year before. They're in the apartment world. But obviously the long term demand is for just about all residential housing.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - That demand. Is there loads of long term demand for apartments, condos, single family homes, co-ops, modular homes, mobile homes, duplexes, triplexes, fourplex container homes, row houses, farmhouses, penthouses, outhouses. I think you get the idea. The demand is there. Residential is the resilient spot, and it's all about where you want to get in. And speaking of homebuilders and finding a smart place to get in, it's important to share with you the good news that homebuilders are still buying down your interest. Right for you. Now the third year rate, it hit 8% last year. And Non-owner occupied property costs a little more. So it was nearly 9% on income property. It's come down off that as we know it's been around seven lately. But see here at GREwe work with builders that are still buying down your interest rate into the fives and sometimes still into the fours on new construction, single family homes, up to four plex and sometimes larger in Florida, Alabama and elsewhere. I mean, that is just the best deal going for you today to have an income producing new build property in the path of growth at 4 to 1, leverage to 5 to 1 leverage and.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:46) - Your mortgage in the fives or less, and we'll help you find the real deals within that. To connect with a great investment coach at great marketplace.com. I think you'll be glad you did. Now, today, if somehow I could use a time machine to write a letter back to my 2020 self and inform myself about what's going to happen in the housing market for the next 4 or 5 years? And I had to keep this note to myself short. I would have written that everything is going to shoot way up, rents up, prices up, interest rates up, expenses up, inflation up. Well, now that nearly all of those run ups have settled into place, we can draw a clearer picture of where we think the real estate market is going to be positioned in the future. Our guest has just freshened things up and he's got the latest in the property market all updated for us. I do two with my own research. You'll like this. It's our housing intelligence analyst guests and I. Straight ahead.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get Rich education.    You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:15) - They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.   Kristin Tate (00:09:42) - This is author Kristin Tate. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:59) - Hey what has not been a very long goodbye. Just like last week when we discussed the economy this week we have the return of the C.J. Patrick Company's Rick Sharga, an extraordinary housing intelligence analyst, as we more specifically cover the real estate market. And if you're on video, you'll have the benefit of seeing some charts as well. Rick. Welcome back. Good to be back, Keith. Long time no see. Yeah, it hasn't been so long. What are your overall thoughts with the housing market? Last week we largely talked about a resilient economy potentially with some headwinds. Yeah we did.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:32) - And I think we're one of the things we left off on was the impact that the Federal Reserve had had on the mortgage market and the housing market. We probably start there. When you look at what's gone on, and just to show you how random all of this can feel sometimes this is a snapshot of mortgage rates from March 12th. And mortgage rates were trading at about 6.92% for a 30 year fixed rate loan.   Rick Sharga (00:10:56) - The most recent number I saw was about 7.1%. And as I mentioned to you and your listeners last time, I expect until the Federal Reserve makes its first fed funds rate cut, we're going to see mortgages trade right around 7% between 6.75 and 7.25%. This has made a big difference in the market because it has limited affordability for literally millions of prospective home buyers. That's makes for a difficult situation for people looking to buy or sell homes, but it also presents millions of rental property opportunities because these people need to live somewhere and they've voted themselves off the island temporarily. They just can't afford to buy a house.   Rick Sharga (00:11:41) - And you see that in terms of the reduction in number of mortgage applications that are being made. So if the Mortgage Bankers Association tracks the number of people that apply for loans, if you went back to December when mortgage rates dipped just a little bit, we saw a run up of loan applications, and as soon as they went back up to seven, we saw that number fall off. It's a very, very rate sensitive market. We'll talk a little bit about some of the implications of that as we move ahead, Keith. But the weak affordability, the higher interest rates, the continuing high home prices led to a very, very weak year in 2023. In terms of overall home sales, we ended the year with about 3.9 million existing homes sold. That's the lowest number of homes sold in a year in a quarter century. Yeah, even lower than we saw in the Great Recession. And December was the 28th consecutive month where we sold fewer properties than we sold the year before.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:39) - So a contraction in the number of sales, although prices appreciated last year.   Rick Sharga (00:12:44) - Yeah, we'll talk about that this year. I'd been hopeful that we'd be a little bit of a better start. January and February were both up in terms of home sales on a month over month basis, but continued this trend of lower sales on a year over year basis. We're looking at 30 consecutive months where we sold fewer properties than we sold the prior year. As a result of this.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:05) - Supply crash, that really began about four years ago.   Rick Sharga (00:13:08) - It's partly supplied as partly costs, that affordability. We really can't overestimate the impact that affordability has had. But you're right in terms of inventory and in fact, a good segue, it's almost like you'd seen this before, Keith. Inventory is up significantly from last year, about 24% higher than it was a year ago, according to some data from Altos Research. But it's still only running about half of 2019 levels. So in a normal market, we would have about a six month supply of homes available for sale in our market today, we're looking at somewhere between two and a half and three months supply.   Rick Sharga (00:13:44) - That lack of supply with some pent up demand is one of the reasons we have seen prices continue to be very healthy, and we haven't seen the the price crash that all the snake oil salesmen on YouTube comments. As of mid-March, about 513,000 homes available for sale, again, about 24% higher. Than last year when the numbers were just dismal. We normally do see more inventory coming to market this time of year. We'll not get anywhere near where we were back in, you know, years like 2019, 2020. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see a little bit more inventory coming to market.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:21) - Now, Rick, for existing properties, we have the very well documented interest rate lock in effect. I think a lot of people understand that. But as far as bringing more supply onto the market, do you see anything from the builder side? You know, costs are up for builders and builders feel this lack of affordability from the buyer market as well. So therefore that motivates them to build somewhat less.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:43) - And they're also building smaller properties, some shrinkflation with new construction property to try to help out with that affordability. So what are your thoughts with builder motivations this year and next year?   Rick Sharga (00:14:54) - All that thought is we're going to get to new homes in just a couple of minutes. So keep that right forefront in mind. But let's just kind of wrap up on existing sales. I do want to point out to your listeners that the inventory growth is actually outpacing the number of new listings. So new listings are only up about 14% year over year, whereas overall inventory is up 24%. The reason for that is it's taking longer to sell homes once they get to market. So once those properties are listed, they're staying in the inventory numbers a little bit longer than they were last year or even a few months ago. So that's one of the reasons the inventory numbers look a little bit better than they did. You talked about the rate lock effect. It's still very real. About two thirds of everybody with a mortgage has a mortgage rate of 4% or less.   Rick Sharga (00:15:43) - And this is not home sellers being picky or having a psychological problem. This is math. If you sell a property today and buy a new one for exactly the same price as the one you just sold, you've now doubled your monthly mortgage payment and most people simply can't afford to do that. So the properties being listed or by by people who feel like they need to sell, there's a death in the family or a birth in the family. There's a divorce or there's a marriage. There's a job loss or job that requires a transfer, maybe some financial difficulties where the borrowers in distress so they feel like they have to sell the home, or somebody's been retired for a long time, has a lot of equity, and just says, oh the heck with it. It's time for me to downsize. But the people who would normally be making a decision that maybe I'd like to sell, maybe I'd like to look at a move up opportunity. Those people are sitting on the sidelines and rather than seeing a price crash, which is what people are breathlessly trying to sell you on YouTube, the most likely scenario, something we've seen play out in the 80s and 90s and is likely to play out again in the 2020s, which is several years of kind of lackluster sales volume and modest price growth.   Rick Sharga (00:16:54) - And it takes a few years to reset the levels so that all those people with the Sub4 mortgages gradually, slowly work their way out of inventory and are replaced by people with mortgages that are closer to today's rates. And we've seen that happen, like I said, in the 80s and 90s, and it's a very normal occurrence when you have a sudden shift in either mortgage rates or home prices, that's much more likely to happen than a 2030 40% drop in home prices to make things affordable. And I would just ask anybody who's skeptical, if somebody approached you tomorrow and you didn't have to sell, but they said, hey, sell me your house for 40% less than market value. How interested would you be in having that conversation?   Keith Weinhold (00:17:36) - Wouldn't last long.   Rick Sharga (00:17:37) - No. And then home prices are up in every region. You mentioned this, Keith. Across the country I'm sharing for people that can see it. I'm sharing data from the Fhfa, which is the entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So all of those 30 year fixed rate conventional loans and a year over year basis, we saw prices go up 6.3%.   Rick Sharga (00:17:56) - They were up in every region of the country. And that's a little different than the prior year when the Pacific region was actually down. But every region of the country is seeing price growth right now. And whichever price index you look at Case-Shiller,, Freddie Mac, the Fhfa index, National Association of Realtors, everybody showed similar numbers were every region was up. But importantly for your listeners and I emphasize this enough, local results are very different than national results. So even within markets where we're seeing prices go up, there are going to be neighborhoods where prices are going down and vice versa. So it's much more important for you to understand what's going on in your local market than to listen to a lot of these national trends. I will tell you that some of the markets that overheated during the pandemic, as people were moving out of high priced, high tax or highly congested areas, are seeing a bit of a clawback. So places like Boise, Idaho and Saint George's, Utah and Austin and Phoenix and Las Vegas, we're seeing those markets with the prices clawing back a little bit, a lot of price growth continuing the southeast.   Rick Sharga (00:19:04) - So and surprisingly now in the Midwest as well. So we are still seeing a bit of a migration from high price, high tax areas into lower priced markets. I tell folks, Keith, I have two adult kids living at home. My son's getting married in September. He's a teacher. His fiance is a lawyer, and they took me aside recently and said, hey, you follow this stuff. What states should we be looking at outside of California to move so that we can own a house?   Keith Weinhold (00:19:31) - Wow, that is really, really interesting that that would dictate their decision on where they live, if they have that much of a preference to own rather than rent. Recently, a lot of us in the industry learned that the average age of the first time homebuyer is now 36, older than ever.   Rick Sharga (00:19:48) - Yep. And these are two kids with good heads on their shoulders. They know there are benefits to homeownership, and they also know that the median price of a home sold in California last month was almost $800,000, and the First National Bank of dad ain't financing that acquisition.   Rick Sharga (00:20:02) - So I'm sure these conversations are happening in New York, in Chicago, in Miami and in San Francisco, and it's just the reality of today's marketplace. We talked about prices going up. We are seeing slightly more homes having a price reduction before they're sold. That always happens somewhere along the lines of 30 to 35% of homes listed wind up with a price reduction before they're sold. We're up to about 31% now, so we're still in the normal range, but we're a little higher than we've been in recent months.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:35) - This is interesting, a statistic we don't talk about very much, the percent of homes experiencing list price reductions.   Rick Sharga (00:20:42) - And it peaked in 2022. The highest number we've seen in quite a while was over 40%. And that was right after interest rates doubled. And so it's probably not a huge surprise. People were anticipating they were pricing based on the prior market. And I think we're seeing more rational pricing today. But again, that combination of prices just being as high as they are and interest rates being as high as they are, are creating some affordability issues.   Rick Sharga (00:21:05) - And for people that have to sell, they're taking price reductions. Now, keep in mind these price reductions are often very, very minimal. In California, for example, the average price reduction is less than a percent. So it's not a huge reduction, but it's still a reduction from what the list price was. You asked about new homes. So now I'm going to make you happy. We'll talk about new homes. New home inventory levels are increasing. We normally want to see about a six month supply of existing homes for sale. The new home inventory is usually between 7 and 8 months. And we're back to that number right now. Some of those homes available for sale are still under construction, but they are nonetheless available for sale. And we've seen that inventory improve over the last year as supply chain disruptions have minimized as builders are now more able to find laborers for construction. Those are two huge holdups they had over the last couple of years, and we've seen new home sales increase. And one of the reasons for that is they're available.   Rick Sharga (00:22:05) - So if you're a builder and you put a home in the market at the right price, you're going to sell it because there just aren't that many existing homes available for sale. And to your other point, Keith, new home prices are actually down 15% from peak. Existing home prices are up, new home prices are down. And in fact, if you look at the most recent new home pricing data put up by the Census Bureau recently, new home prices are at the lowest level since June of 2021. So they've really come down pretty significantly and are not that far away from existing home prices in many markets. So that median price of an existing home and the median price of a new home for sale are closer than they've been in years, partly because the builders are building smaller homes, partly because you're using less expensive fixtures. And the other thing that the builders have been doing, and this price is a lot of people, but it's brilliant on their part, is they're coming to closing with thousands of dollars and they're paying down mortgage rates.   Rick Sharga (00:23:01) - They're buying points and dropping the mortgage rate for their buyers. I spoke to a group in Denver recently where there was a local builder advertising mortgage rates of 4.99%. So think about that.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:13) - We have providers we work with here that are doing similar things. We're still seeing the rate buy downs happening, and that's why I've often told people, Rick, like, this is potentially a good time in the cycle when you're adding more rental property to really look at new builds or build to rent while these rate buy downs last. Now, I talked to a builder in Houston yesterday, and I learned a few interesting things. You talked about the smaller square footages. They could confirm that often times this builder offers either a bedroom or a study. You can get an extra bedroom or a study like a little office space. And more and more people are opting for the study. So they're starting to build homes more with the study in mind because more people are working from home and one less bedroom because people are having fewer children.   Rick Sharga (00:23:57) - Exactly right. It's the combination of both of those two things, either having fewer children or having them later. And many more people working from home than they were prior to the pandemic. And those studies become very, very useful., rooms to have in the house. Rick, what.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:12) - Is the lowest cost, new build, single family home that you see? I mean, is anyone even building in any parts of the nation, like a 225 K new build home? I haven't seen one.   Rick Sharga (00:24:26) - I haven't seen one. But I wouldn't be surprised if you're in a market in a state like Alabama or Mississippi and some of the more outlying areas, maybe some markets in the Midwest where home prices aren't as astronomical as they are elsewhere. But look, the builders are building judiciously. They're not overbuilding., we had a cycle in 2008 where we had a 13 month supply of homes available for sale and building Irish building. They got caught with overstock. But what they are building, they tend to build as move up homes because they're more profitable.   Rick Sharga (00:24:58) - So you're just not seeing an awful lot of entry level homes being built. And the hope is that as they build that first move up level home, some of the people with entry level homes will opt to sell and bring some of that inventory back to market. We are seeing more construction. We are seeing building permits,, going up on a year over year basis., most recent numbers are around 1.5 million permits. So the builders are bullish on the future. And housing starts were up in both January and February. Most importantly they're up most strongly in single family owner occupied homes. We're seeing housing starts to decline dramatically in terms of multifamily starts, right. But that's because there's about a million new apartment units coming online between last year and this year. And we don't need a whole lot more apartments., we need,, more single family homes. So if your listeners are seeing headlines talking about housing starts being lower, it's really because we're seeing fewer multifamily starts.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:54) - Last year was a big year for multifamily construction.   Rick Sharga (00:25:57) - All time high in terms of multifamily units under construction. And a lot of those are still coming to market this year. There are going to be some markets that are actually still oversupplied. So again, you have to be paying very close attention. When we talk a little bit about the rental market in the apartment category, we have seen apartment rents decline year over year in pretty much all categories. Whether you're looking at studio apartments, one bedroom apartments, two better apartments on a year over year basis, rents are actually in negative territory, according to Realtor.com and according to some data I've recently seen from RealPage. If you're looking at the actual price of rent and I know that's a little different than percentage increases or decreases, you're still seeing that rents about it's below peak. It's about 1.6% below the peak we hit in 2022,, when vacancy rates were just about nothing. But we are still below peak, and the median rent is ranging,, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,700 a year for apartments, single family homes, which I suspect more of your listeners are actually,, renting out than apartments.   Rick Sharga (00:27:03) - Yes. Are doing better. We're seeing year over year rents continue to grow. They're growing modestly. They have not gone into negative territory, and they haven't,, during this boom and bust cycle that we've seen in the housing market. And if you're looking at,, price gains, according to some recent data from CoreLogic, if you're at the higher end of the single family rental market, prices are up about 3% year over year. At the low end, they're up about 2.9%. So very little difference depending on your price tier and also very little difference depending on whether you're looking at an attached single family residence or,, detached family single family residence. All those are up right around 3% year over year. And that's a good sign. Again, you're dealing with a as your your listeners know, you're dealing with a slightly different tenant in a single family home than you are in a, an apartment. And a lot of these people who would have been buyers or opting to rent stands to reason that,, they'd rather rent a house, particularly if it's in a good school district or in a good neighborhood than an apartment, because they have needs.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:06) - Rents are extremely stable historically. They just sort of plod up slowly. What happened about two years ago, three years ago, with that 15% plus rent increase, that's an aberration.   Rick Sharga (00:28:19) - Yeah, that's a good point, Keith. If we're looking at 3% rental growth year over year right now in the single family rental market that tracks with historic normals, usually you're somewhere between 1 and 5% a year. So threes, you know, smack dab in the middle of all that. And the growth rates also vary wildly by markets., just kind of give you a range if you're looking at a single family rental property in Honolulu, in the city, year over year, you're up about 6%. If you're looking at a unit in Miami, Florida, you're down about 2.5%.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:50) - So rental growth rates.   Rick Sharga (00:28:52) - Rental growth rates. So really just depends on where you are. That's pretty much your range from a couple points down to I think Honolulu actually had the largest,, increase in the CoreLogic study. A lot of your listeners are probably interested in buying foreclosure properties.   Rick Sharga (00:29:07) - We're not seeing a lot of foreclosure activity. Still, we are starting to see a little weakness in consumers. When we met last week, we talked a little bit about the strength of consumer spending, but we also talked about increasing amounts of spending on credit cards. And we're seeing consumer delinquency rates increase in pretty much every aspect of consumer lending, whether it's a loan, whether it's a credit card debt, whether it's an auto loan, whether it's a home equity line of credit, whether it's a mortgage, a mortgage, delinquencies are up a little bit. The only category we're not seeing an increase in delinquencies right now is student loans. And my theory on that is that people have only recently had to start making payments again on student loans, and we don't have any data to show that they're going delinquent yet. But the delinquency numbers we need to take with a grain of salt, because many of them are most of them are early stage delinquency. So somebody missed a payment, but then they catch up before they get 60 or 90 days delinquent.   Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - But we are seeing trends that suggest more delinquencies. And if you have more delinquencies, that leads to more foreclosures. Mortgage delinquency rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, went up to about 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the historic average going back to the 1970s, which is as far back as the NBA goes, is about 5.25%. So we're still way below normal levels of delinquencies. As I mentioned, most of those are early stage delinquencies, and they're being resolved before they get more serious. Because of that, we don't have a lot of foreclosure activity. So this is no longer Keith government intervention. It's no longer government forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums. It's the fact that the economy's been so strong. Unemployment rates have a very strong correlation to mortgage delinquency rates. We got together last time I mentioned the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. I just told you that word delinquencies are at 3.8. Can't get much closer than that. And because of that, foreclosure activity is still down almost 30% from where we were in 2019 prior to the pandemic.   Rick Sharga (00:31:07) - And I should point out, the 2019 wasn't a particularly big year for foreclosures either. So I don't see us getting back to pre-pandemic levels of foreclosure activity until sometime next year. And what's important for people in this space to understand is that even though we're seeing roughly the same number of delinquencies that we saw back in 2019, fewer of those delinquent loans are going into foreclosure. Fewer of those foreclosures are getting as far as the auction, and even fewer of those are going back to the banks as REO properties or bank owned properties.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:40) - Delinquency occurs before foreclosure. We have low levels of both, and I would imagine that one substantial reason for that are these low fixed rate payments that so many people have. Minutes ago, you showed us that 90% of those with a mortgage have a rate in the fives or less. And then oftentimes when we talk about these sorts of things, we don't even consider the fact that more than 4 in 10 homeowners are free and clear. They don't have any mortgage at all. So it's difficult for people to get in trouble.   Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - Yeah. And when they do get in trouble, what's really a saving grace for a lot of these people? And I believe the reason we're seeing fewer foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions is that there's $31 trillion in homeowner equity in the market, and 90% of borrowers in foreclosure have positive equity. A huge percentage of those have at least 20% equity. So what's happening interesting is that many, many of these borrowers are protecting their equity by selling their home before the foreclosure sale. If they get to foreclosure sale, they run the risk of losing all their equity, or at least the overwhelming majority of their equity.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:48) - That's a great point with how this really works.   Rick Sharga (00:32:50) - And so if you're looking to buy a distressed property, if you're looking to buy a foreclosure property, you really need to be working directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure rather than waiting for the auction. And certainly rather than waiting for the bank to repossess the home and resell it. And some recent data from a friend of mine@auction.com tracking some numbers from Adam Data.   Rick Sharga (00:33:15) - 55% of the distressed properties that were sold through from June through to September of last year were sold in that pre foreclosure period prior to the foreclosure auction. That's wildly different than we've been in in years past. So really important for anybody looking to buy distressed property, to consider moving upstream and working directly with that homeowner. And it's a win win. You can help that homeowner protect their equity, have some cash to make a fresh start with and, and typically buy a home in pretty good condition and a home that you need to be part of your rental portfolio. So just kind of recapping some of the stuff we talked about, Keith, both today and last week, I still think that from an economic standpoint, there's still at least a good possibility we might have a short, mild recession sometime later this year. I don't see unemployment going much higher than 5%. Even if we do have a recession, if we don't have a recession, we'll only see the economy slowed down a bit. It might be hard to tell the difference.   Rick Sharga (00:34:10) - I'm expecting the volume of home sales to go up. I think we bottomed out in 2023, but not by a lot. Maybe we see a 10% lift over last year, which would take us to roughly 4.4 million existing homes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 700,000 new homes sold, really just depends on how quickly builders bring inventory to market. But if I'm right and mortgage rates go down slowly over the second half of this year, we'll see more home buyers come to market more quickly than sellers. We don't see a lot of sellers come to market until we get interest rates down to about 5.5% or lower, which probably won't happen until 2025. So more buyers coming to market than sellers means the prices will continue to go up. We continue to see investors account for 25 to 30% of all residential purchases. So I think we'll continue to see a higher rate, partly because investors are active, partly because a lot of consumers are waiting for market conditions to improve, but that limited affordability in today's market conditions, I really do think means more demand for rental units.   Rick Sharga (00:35:14) - And I think foreclosure activity stays below normal levels for the rest of this year, and REO inventory bank repossessions are going to remain even lower for even longer. I don't think we see REO activity come back to more normal levels for at least a couple of years, so anybody looking to buy these properties really does need to be moving upstream in order to make those purchases.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:34) - Yeah, with low affordability, hence more demand for rentals. I've already noticed that the homeownership rate, which is somewhat of a trailing number here, has already fallen from 66% to 65.7%. And with low affordability, it seems that that homeownership rate could fall even more, meaning the rate of renters would be higher.   Rick Sharga (00:35:54) - A friend of mine always complains that the government's somehow beside behind all of these trends, one way or the other, and and wonders why, with all the government programs aimed at increasing homeownership, we haven't seen that homeownership rate increase much. And I think sometimes things said to the natural level and our homeownership rate, really for the last 30 years, has been somewhere between 64% and 66%.   Rick Sharga (00:36:19) - And that might just be what the natural level for homeownership is in the United States. Will it dip a little bit as people can't afford to buy a house? Probably. Probably will. When market conditions improve for buyers, will it go up a little bit? Probably. But we hit 70% homeownership back in 2006. And it turned out that was the bad number and that not everybody's ready financially for the kind of commitment that homeownership requires. And so I've always said that the key isn't getting everybody into a home. It's the sustainability of homeownership for people that that we do get into that house. One of the best days of your life is when you get the key to that house, and it has to be one of the worst days if you have to give it back. So I hope we all keep that in mind as we move forward.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:03) - That's right. Government incentives is in the past saying there's a $10,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. Oh, we're not in an era where we need help. On the demand side, all you're doing is driving up prices.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:14) - And I don't know that you're helping out anybody in that case. But I think with really overall, one big takeaway here, Rick, is that if you the listener, if you're waiting for prices to drop substantially sometime or for interest rates to drop substantially sometime, that might not be worth the wait. You could be waiting a long time.   Rick Sharga (00:37:32) - I do expect mortgage rates will decline. I don't really go back to the sub for rates we saw a few years ago, but they're going to decline slowly and they may not decline enough to offset rising home prices. I mean, you have to get your calculator out and and figure out how that math works for you. But you're absolutely right, Keith. And I tell people today, even with mortgage rates being where they are, if you find a house you love or you find a house that's a good investment and you pencil it out and the numbers work, don't wait because the opportunity costs can be severe and you could wind up missing out on a property that could either be a good cash flow unit for you on rental, or it could be a property that you wind up living in for the next 30 years.   Rick Sharga (00:38:13) - So don't be afraid of today's market. Just be very prudent and judicious in the way you approach it.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:19) - Well, Rick, get resuscitation of followers and the nation have been a beneficiary of your housing market intelligence expertise for quite a while now. If someone wants to engage with you in the CJ Patrick Company, who are those types of people and how could you help?   Rick Sharga (00:38:36) - I appreciate the opportunity. Most of the companies I work with or companies that provide services to lenders, anybody who has a business that's in the real estate or financial services markets, who would benefit from my coming in to share with them industry data, or has data themselves that they would like to get out into the marketplace? Anything data related really, I tend to specialize in. So market updates and market overviews and market. Analysis or things that I do on a pretty much daily basis for companies.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:07) - How can they engage with you?   Rick Sharga (00:39:08) - They can find our website, which is C.J. patrick.com. They can find me on Twitter. I hide there under my name, Rick, or reach out to me on LinkedIn.   Rick Sharga (00:39:17) - And if you reach out to me on on a social media channel, make sure that you mention you know me through Keith, and you're not some crazy Russian bot trying to hack into my personal information.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:27) - Well, then, Rick, it's been great having you back on the show.   Rick Sharga (00:39:30) - I'm sure we'll do it again sometime soon. Thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:39) - Yeah, terrific Intel there. In this episode, Rick said that to still expect a lower amount of sales going forward and expect modest property price appreciation. Every region of the nation is seeing price growth now. And by the way, you remember that late last year, I unveiled Gray's home price appreciation forecast for this year, stating that prices should rise 4% and here in Q2, I still like how that looks. There is not much distress with current homeowners, but if you're looking to scoop up a foreclosed property cheap, you better get aggressive and work directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure. Don't wait for that property to go to auction. Rick also said more demand for rental units is coming, and I encourage you to engage with Rick.   Keith Weinhold (00:40:30) - Let him know you heard about him through me. If you want to go deeper and engage with some of the services that he offers, perhaps you work for a real estate company or a demographic company. You can do that at C.J. patrick.com. But most of you, the listener is an individual investor. So check him out on X where his handle is Rick Sharga. He is Rick Sharga on LinkedIn. Big thanks to Rick Sharga today. Until next week I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 5 (00:41:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:41:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Demand for financing a home with a mortgage and refinancing existing mortgages both slowed over the past week according to The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) weekly reading. Does it mean the real estate market is in for a slow down? I think quite the opposite is coming and I explain why in today's show.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler hosts a special tribute episode for industry leader David Stevens. Bill Emerson, president and CEO of Rocket Companies, Rob Van Raaphorst, senior vice president at Rational 360, and Marcia Davies, COO and founder of Mpower at the Mortgage Bankers Association, talk about Dave's leadership, legacy and what they will remember most. Related to this episode: David Stevens, former FHA Commissioner and MBA President, has died HousingWire's YouTube Channel Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prepare to navigate the ebbs and flows of the real estate seas as we explore the mortgage application surge—a nearly 10% swell to start 2024—and the curious rise in core inflation. As we chart these waters, you'll gain insight into the transformative economic forces at play, understanding why median home prices are climbing and what's causing the erratic behavior of interest rates. This episode sails through the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest findings, revealing significant shifts in mortgage applications and home inventory levels. We'll capture the essence of the current market's peculiarities and discuss the prospects of a potential flatline in the real estate market—a scenario that seems to defy the anticipated crash. Join us as we also share invaluable perspectives from the commercial real estate front, particularly in the apartment building sector, where opportune tides may be rising. Don't miss out on these crucial tidbits that could be the compass for your investment decisions and the broader housing landscape.This episode is brought to you by Skilled Property Finders - Home of the 21 Day Close!We will close on your property in 21 days or less OR we'll pay an additional $5,000. Visit www.skilledpropertyfinders.com to find out more.Support the show

Could the spring of 2024 herald a rejuvenation for the housing market? This episode strips back the layers of recent mortgage interest rate changes and what it means for buyers and sellers gearing up for the potentially strong season ahead. We scrutinize the latest housing data, with a particular focus on the perplexing state of mortgage demand, which remains sluggish despite a drop in rates last December. The curious case of rising Google searches for homes, alongside the nuances of median home sale prices and mortgage payments, are dissected to forecast the market's next moves.Join us as we navigate the complexities of the real estate sector, with valuable insights from the Mortgage Bankers Association's deputy chief economist, Joel Kan. We'll explore the delicate balance between home affordability, the supply of houses, and the impact of Federal Reserve policies on future market trends. In what could be a pivotal moment, we assess whether shifts in unemployment rates and interest rate adjustments will send ripples through the housing landscape or pave the way for a robust 2024 market. This comprehensive conversation is one that prospective buyers, current homeowners, and real estate enthusiasts won't want to miss.This episode is brought to you by Skilled Property Finders - Home of the 21 Day Close!We will close on your property in 21 days or less OR we'll pay an additional $5,000. Visit www.skilledpropertyfinders.com to find out more.Support the show

Our annual must-listen episode. Chief Economists Jim Costello (MSCI Real Assets) and Richard Barkham (CBRE) share their predictions for the global economy, interest rates, capital markets and investment opportunities across commercial real estate sectors.THIS WEEK'S GUESTSRichard BarkhamGlobal Chief Economist, Head of Global Research & Head of Americas Research, CBRERichard Barkham leads a global team of nearly 600 research experts who help CBRE's clients understand the forces shaping the commercial real estate industry. One of the world's leading real estate economists, Richard combines the theoretical framework of an academic with hands-on experience in development to deliver actionable insights for real estate investors and occupiers. A frequent source for both clients and journalists navigating moments of economic volatility, he is particularly interested in the role government stimulus plays in long-term economic recoveries.Jim Costello Executive Director MSCI Research Jim is chief economist on the MSCI Real Assets team and is based in New York. He is the principal author of the US Capital Trends report series and a frequent speaker at commercial real estate conferences. At Real Capital Analytics, which MSCI acquired in 2021, Jim was a leader for analysis across the commercial property universe. Jim also spent two decades at Torto Wheaton Research (now known as CBRE Econometric Advisors) working on issues of real estate risk and forecasting. He recently finished serving a term on the Commercial Board of Governors of the Mortgage Bankers Association and is currently a member of The Counselors of Real Estate.

Today Jason covers various predictions about the future of the housing market. Wells Fargo and the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted modest increases, while Fannie Mae and the American Enterprise Institute were more optimistic. He also highlighted the benefits of income properties, such as positive cash flow, appreciation, tax benefits, and mortgage paydown. Then Jason welcomes Eli Baracha, Director of the School of Real Estate in the Florida International University as they discuss the ongoing housing shortage in the US, attributing it to a decade of under construction following the 2007 housing market peak. They also highlighted the need for disruptive technologies in transportation and energy to allow for cheaper and more efficient operations. Additionally, they talk about the housing market, interest rates, and their impacts on the market. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:46 Experts Predictions' on housing prices for 2024 8:55 Black Friday and Cyber Monday Sale Get a 20% discount; use the Promo code FRIDAY https://FireYourManagers.com/ https://EmpoweredInvestorLive.com/   Eli Baracha's interview 12:41 An analysis of the current housing inventory shortage 16:40 The underbuilding after the great recession 20:10 Building number and obstacles builders face 24:59 Price segment: building entry-level housing 29:13 Housing formation vs. housing shortage 30:01 Multi-family and condos comprise only 17% of the market 37:22 Technology disruptor on the housing shortage     Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

The Fed can raise interest rates, but they cannot create housing supply.  Housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the second week in a row. This housing market is awful for primary residence homebuyers. But at GRE Marketplace, you can still buy income properties with rates as low as 4.75%. Rick tells us that the most prosperous markets now favor the: Midwest and Southeast, single-family homes, rental property investors with buy-and-hold strategies. National home prices are appreciating modestly. Home sales volume is still down. Investors now account for more than one-quarter of property purchases. Mortgage delinquencies are near an all-time low. Rick and I discuss why this market is so bad for flippers.  High homeowner equity positions ($300K+) support this housing market.  Timestamps: The impact of rising mortgage rates [00:02:37] Discussion on how the Federal Reserve's raising of short-term rates has caused mortgage rates to go up, affecting the housing market. The affordability challenge [00:03:38] Exploration of the impact of higher mortgage rates on homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, and the decrease in affordability. Low supply of homes [00:08:48] Analysis of the low inventory of homes for sale, with a decrease of 9% from the previous year and 47% from 2019, leading to a challenging market. The mortgage rate lock in effect [00:11:05] Discussion on how the mortgage rate lock in effect can crimp demand but cannot create supply. Hottest markets in the Midwest and Southeast [00:11:05] Analysis of the hottest real estate markets in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States. Positive turn in home price appreciation [00:13:06] Explanation of how home price appreciation went down but has recently turned positive again. Housing Permits, Starts, and Construction [00:21:24] Discussion on the trends and levels of housing permits, starts, and construction, and the need for builders to increase production. Investor Activity in the Residential Market [00:22:28] Exploration of the percentage of home purchases made by investors, with a focus on small and medium-sized investors and the misconception of institutional investors dominating the market. Delinquencies and Foreclosures [00:24:36] Analysis of mortgage delinquency rates, foreclosure activity, and homeowner equity, highlighting the low delinquency rates, the presence of equity in foreclosed homes, and the importance of early-stage foreclosure sales. The future direction of rents [00:32:00] Discussion on the potential upward pressure on rents due to low affordability and high homeownership rate. Inventory coming to the market [00:33:03] Exploration of the impact of expensive inventory coming to the market and its effect on rent prices. The overall economy and housing market [00:34:03] Consideration of the possibility of a recession, unemployment spike, and foreclosures affecting the housing market. The coach's role in finding real estate deals [00:43:06] Explanation of how an investment coach can help you find the best real estate deals in the marketplace. Advantages of buying properties from marketplace [00:44:20] Reasons why buying properties from marketplace can lead to good deals, including lower prices and absence of emotional seller involvement. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/467 Rick Sharga's website: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X (Twitter): @RickSharga Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold a terrific discussion today on the direction of the housing market, including lessons that you can learn for all time plummeting home sales volume and direly low home inventory. Why home price appreciation is taking place now. Could the government soon penalize you for owning too many rental properties? What's the best place for a real estate investor to position themselves in this era? And more today on Get Rich Education.   (00:00:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.   (00:00:56) - Walking from Horseheads, New York to Nags Head, North Carolina, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. And you're listening. To get rich education, you are going to get a fantastic market update today. And along the way, you'll also learn lessons if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was with us last week to discuss the economy. This week, it's episode two of two as we discuss the real estate market.   (00:01:25) - He has been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms, and today he's the founder and CEO of Patrick Company, either a market intelligence firm for the real estate and mortgage markets. And he has 20 plus years of experience in those industries. It's the return of Rick Saga Part two of two. It's not imperative that you listen to last week's Part one of two that we can help you see the big picture. Enjoy this long, unbroken interview and then after the break, I'll come back to close it. Just you and I. We're talking with Rick Sagar, expert housing analyst, previously. We talked about the general condition of the economy. And now Rick and I are going to break down the housing market with what's happening there. There's so definitively connected. Keith One of the things to that the Federal Reserve has done by raising those short term rates is caused mortgage rates to go up, right? Mortgage rates tend to run loosely in line with the yields on the ten year US Treasury bonds that we talked about at the end of the first segment.   (00:02:37) - Those are now up around 4%. And typically a 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be between one and a half and two percentage points higher than that yield. So in a normal market, we'd be looking at a mortgage rate today of about five and a half to 6%. Instead because of the risk and the volatility that the market is pricing in because they're not sure what the Federal Reserve is going to do next. We're looking at mortgage rates for a 30 year fixed rate loan of over 7%. The most recent numbers from last week from Freddie Mac, we were at almost 7.2% on that average, 30 year fixed rate loan and 6.5% on a 15 year fixed rate loan. You and I were talking before the show and and you know, historically speaking, if we keep these things in context, we're still actually below the 25 year average, which was 8%. But we have a whole generation of homebuyers who've come of age during the period of the lowest mortgage rates in the history of the country. They got spoiled, they got spoiled.   (00:03:38) - And to be clear, it's one of the reasons that home prices rose as rapidly as they did and got as high as they are is because you could afford to make monthly payments with a two and a half, three, 3.5% mortgage. Now, you still have home prices about as high as they were then, and you have a mortgage rate that's doubled. And for most home buyers, particularly first time home buyers that make your monthly mortgage payment was going to go up by 45 to 60%. And most of us didn't get that 45 to 60% raise last year. It really had a huge impact on affordability. In fact, this is such an unusual occurrence that according to Freddie Mac, it's the only time in US history when mortgage rates doubled during a calendar year and they didn't just double in a calendar year. Keith They doubled in the space in a few months. It was that kind of systemic shock to the system that really hit the housing market as hard as it did. Right. And they've also nearly tripled in a pretty short period of time.   (00:04:35) - Yeah, they really have. And again, going back historically speaking and and get this from Gen Z folks and millennials, when I talk about, you know, the old days of mortgage and I do remember my first mortgage had two numbers to the left of the decimal point. I forget if it was 11 or 12%, but it was something like that. And they basically say, okay, Boomer, but that 11% mortgage was on your $70,000 house, Right. And not, you know, today's median priced home of $430,000 or whatever it is. So it's a fair point. Mortgage rates are not high, historically speaking, but that monthly cost, because of the combination of home prices and higher interest rates, is choking some people and making affordability a problem. And because of that, one of the forward looking metrics that I take a look at is the purchase loan mortgage application index from the Mortgage Bankers Association. So this is the number of people that are applying for loans with the purpose of buying a house.   (00:05:35) - They're off almost 30% on a year over year basis right now. You can see without straining your eyes at all the impact that these higher mortgage rates are having on the housing market. And we had almost record numbers of purchase loan applications from the time people who are allowed out of their house during the pandemic until these mortgage rates doubled from 2020 through the early part of 2022, mortgage rates were in the threes and fours and sometimes even in the twos. Yeah, everyone wants to talk about mortgage rates and it is an important discussion to have here at Marketplace with our investment coaches. Rick Some builders, as you know, they commonly offer rate buy down incentives to buyers of new homes. And what some of our providers are doing here, Rick, is we have one builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're buying down your income property's mortgage rate to 5.75%. And we have another builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're still buying down your mortgage rate to 4.75%. And of course, with Non-owner occupied property here, you know, previously you had talked about mortgage rates in excess of seven.   (00:06:47) - They might normally be about 8% for non owner occupied property, but you're able to buy them down to five and three quarters or even four and three quarters with one of our providers for new builds right now, that's a great deal and your listener should really be taking advantage of those opportunities. We'll get into new homes in a few minutes and what we're seeing builders do for consumers, But have to tell you, those numbers are better deals than consumers are getting right now. And you're being generous when you're talking about private lending rates right now. Most of the lenders I'm familiar with are nine, ten, 11%, depending on the nature of your investment. So your folks are getting a great deal with those rates. We talked about purchase loan applications. The other advanced predictor I look at is pending home sales. These are people that are entering into contracts. The deal hasn't been closed yet. Has it been recorded yet? This comes out from the National Association of Realtors. And those numbers are down on a year over year basis as well.   (00:07:42) - There's a lot of rate sensitivity in the market, though, Keith. And if you go back to March when rates went down just a fraction of a percent, we saw more purchase loan applications. We saw more pending home sales. But as rates have climbed back up over seven, we've seen both of these metrics go down. Yeah. So we're talking about pending home sales. We're talking about sales volume that's down in this discussion, not sales price. And anyone might be hard to say, but when you see sales volume that's down, including pending sales, how often is that due to worse affordability and how often is that due to low supply of homes? Why don't we jump right into that? Keith That's a great segue. And this is a very difficult time in the housing market because it has both of the factors that you just mentioned, two very difficult headwinds for the market to try and overcome. And and we'll get into details on both of those in just a minute. Because of that, existing home sales were down in July and they were down pretty significantly on a year over year basis, about 16%.   (00:08:48) - And that's the 23rd consecutive month where existing home sales were lower than they were the prior year. January was the lowest month of sales this month, and it broke a streak we started this year. I was forecasting that we'd see between 4.3 and 4.4 existing home sales. That's down from about 5.2 last year in about 6.1 million the year before. Right now, we're trending at a little over 4 million existing home sales for the year. So even my relatively low forecast for the year may have been overly optimistic. You mentioned inventory and inventory is a huge headwind for the market. Inventory of homes for sale today is down about 9% from where it was a year ago. It's down 47% from where we were in 2019, which was probably the last normal year we've had in the housing market. In a normal year, we would be looking at about a six month supply of homes available for sale. That's what economists or housing market analysts will look at as a balanced market balance between supply and demand. We're at about two and a half months supply right now nationally and in many states it's much lower than that.   (00:09:56) - So there's just not much out here. And the only reason the inventory number looks as good as it looks and it doesn't look very good is because it's taking a little longer to sell properties once they hit the market. If you were looking at new listing data, it's even worse. There's very little inventory coming to market in the way of new listings, and that's because of the rate increases we talked about a minute ago. 90% of borrowers with a mortgage have an interest rate on that mortgage of 6% or less. 70% have an interest rate of 4% or less. If you're sitting on a mortgage rate of 3.5% and you sell your house and buy a house at the same exact price with a 7% mortgage, you've just doubled your monthly mortgage payment. It's not that people psychologically don't want to trade a low rate for a high rate. There's a financial penalty for them doing so. And until we see mortgage rates come down a bit, probably into the fives, we're just not going to see a lot of inventory coming to market except for homeowners who need to sell or have so much equity and maybe you're going to downsize into a smaller property that they don't care about that kind of shift.   (00:11:05) - Yeah, that is the mortgage rate lock in effect. Perfectly explain. And the Fed with the raising rates, they can crimp demand. But one thing that the Fed cannot do is create supply. As much as you might like to see Jerome Powell in work boots with a nail gun, that just doesn't happen. There's an image for you, for your listeners. Yeah, and I'm not sure I'd want to. I'd want to live in that house. That's not Chairman Powell building, but inspection. Yeah. Good economist. Maybe not a carpenter. We were talking about this a little bit earlier, too. And if you're an investor, this is probably worth noting, whether you're a fix and flip investor or investor who's buying properties to rent out a lot of the interest. This is from the sharing some data from Realtor.com and they've taken a look at where people are searching for properties and where transactions are taking place and they're finding that Midwest Southeast are really the hottest markets, places that are a little off the beaten path, you know, places in New Hampshire and Connecticut and Maine and Ohio and Wisconsin.   (00:12:06) - But interestingly, some of the markets that had been suffering a little bit, they're starting to see a little more interest in whether it's California, but off the coast or markets in Colorado or Washington state. But clearly, a lot of the activity, a lot of the money is moving into the Midwest, in southeast. That's right. With the work from anywhere trend, you might see this small flattening and not as much of a disparity in home prices between markets. You're certainly still going to see that, but that can just help create a mild flattening when it doesn't matter where you live anymore and you can go ahead and purchase in lower cost markets. Yeah, and what I'm sharing now is national home prices, home price. And I'm glad you mentioned what you just did, Keith, because the fact of the matter is this has been a very localized correction. And if you're in San Francisco or San Jose, if you're in Seattle, if you're in Austin, if you're in Phoenix, you're in markets where prices are off 10% or more from peak.   (00:13:06) - If you're in Boise, Idaho, you're off more than 10% from peak of Boise had oil prices go up by 47% in a single year, a year or so ago. So he just overshot the mark. One of the reasons the national numbers don't show more volatility is because of what Keith just mentioned. It's because people are trading in where they are in a high price, high tax state moving into a lower price state and candidly outbidding local buyers and probably overpaying a little bit for those properties. So you're seeing home prices go up in some of those less expensive markets much more rapidly than they would under normal circumstances. And what we're talking about here is national home prices that are appreciating at a modest rate now. Yeah, and they are. So if you look at whether you're looking at the Case-Shiller index, it gets published monthly or the National Association of Realtors data. We saw home price appreciation start to go down last year. It was still positive but going down and that was true until pretty much the end of the first quarter this year when the data went negative for the first time in years.   (00:14:15) - So we were seeing on both a month over month and year over year basis home prices go down and that happened until June, June, things flatlined in July. Prices actually went up ah, year over year. So if you're looking at the median home price compared to the peak price a year ago, it's actually up about 1% from where we were last year, which is kind of amazing. The Case-Shiller index is a little bit of a lagging indicator and it rolls three months together, but it also started to turn the corner with its July report. So after almost a full year of price appreciation coming down and prices in decline, we've seen both of these indexes turn and are starting to go positive. It does show you that there continues to be demand for properties that are brought to market. And while home price appreciation certainly isn't soaring by any means, it's back in positive territory now. And that's something that a lot of people hadn't predicted this year. When the supply of homes is this low, it keeps generating a few bids for any available home.   (00:15:21) - Now, not as many bids as it did back in 2021. But besides generating bids, you have these huge population cohorts of millennials and Gen Zers that are growing, and they're in their prime homebuyer years moving through the system to go ahead and place those bids and keep just modest home price appreciation here lately. That's sort of how I see it. Rick If you want to add any color or thoughts to that, I think you're spot on. Keith It's the largest cohort of young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 in US history. That's prime age for forming a household. 33 to 34 is the average age of a first time buyer right now. And so these people would like to buy a house. And for people who are investing in single family rental properties in particular, at least short term, the affordability issue is something that definitely works in your favor. If somebody was looking to buy a house, they might prefer to rent a house rather than rent an apartment. I've read research that shows somewhere between 20 and 30% of people who had planned to buy have decided to rent for the next year or two while market conditions settle down or while they can put aside more money for a down payment.   (00:16:27) - These market conditions are playing in favor of people who have rental properties to offer. One other metric I'd like to share in terms of home prices, Keith is the FHFa puts out its own index. FHFa is the government entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So these are your conventional bread and butter, vanilla kind of 30 year fixed rate loans. If you look at their portfolio, home prices are actually up 3.1% year over year. And every sector of the country is showing positive rice appreciation except for the Pacific states and the mountain states. And those are some of the markets we talked about earlier. And even those are very close to breaking even at this point. So HFA breaks it into about ten regions, nine of those ten currently appreciating year over year. Yep, something like that important for you to know again as an investor as to what's happening in your region. Again, whether you're you're planning to sell the property or rent it out. You talked about what builders are doing for your investor folks.   (00:17:28) - Yeah, we're seeing new home sales actually improving to consumers as well for a lot of the same reasons, incentives. So a lot of builders are coming to the closing table with cash. They're paying points on mortgages and getting those rates down where they're short term or long term. They're offering discounts, they're offering upgrades to properties. And so new home sales are still down, but just slightly on a year over year basis and have actually been beating last year's numbers for the last four months. My original estimate for new home sales this year was about 600,000. I think we're going to probably coming closer to 675,000 this year. And the only reason we won't sell more is because the builders aren't building that fast enough. But one of the reasons people are buying these new homes is because that's what's on the market today. People would have bought an existing home, can't find one. Here's the other factor. New home prices are down 16.4% from last year's peak. Now, this is informative. Think this would surprise a lot of people? Well, it surprises me.   (00:18:28) - It should surprise people because new home prices almost always go up, right? This does not mean builders are discounting homes 16.4%. What's happening is they are building less expensive homes, They're less expensive per square foot, and they're building smaller homes. And they're doing that in acknowledgement of the higher cost of financing. That also, by the way, is in sending people to look at these properties as either a starter home or a minor move up kind of property. But it is one of the reasons why new home sales are doing better than existing home sales right now on a percentage basis. That's an interesting number, Rick. A few weeks ago, I shared with our newsletter audience that builders are building homes smaller and closer together, which might be reflected in lower prices, but just didn't think it would be 16.4% lower from peak. Now, if you're doing year over year, it's probably not that big of a drop, but from the peak price we are off. And it is to your point, it's a pretty significant number.   (00:19:26) - It would be a problematic number if it was the existing home market, right, because then you'd be looking at the same property being worth 16% less. But a builder can kind of play with those numbers a little bit. Single family housing starts after falling for quite a while, are now back going back up only slightly from where they were a year ago, but they are moving in the right direction. Multifamily starts have actually tailed off a little bit after reaching record high numbers. There could be as many as a million apartment units coming to market this year. Yeah, which would be an all time record. So we've seen building on those multifamily units slow down a little bit. If you look at at new home starts for single family properties still below where they were a year ago. But again, for the first time in quite a few months, starting to trend up. A couple of things to share with your viewers here, Keith. In terms of construction, we're seeing construction continue to grow in the multifamily market because of all the starts we saw previously.   (00:20:23) - We are seeing single family construction slowed down, but that's because the builders are working their way through a glut of homes that was under construction. So we had a really weird happenstance about a year ago, a little over year, we had the highest number of homes under construction ever. And this data goes back to the early 1970s, and we had the lowest number of completed properties available for sale ever. And a lot of that was due to supply chain delays and to labor shortages. And over the last year to 15 months, the builders have gradually begun working through this glut of homes that were started but not finished. And we've seen the number of completed homes go up a little bit, almost back to normal levels, not quite there. One of the reasons they're not quite there is people are buying these homes before they're completed. They're working with the builder. Buying a home is it's almost ready to go, but still under construction. What's been encouraging, looking into the future is that permitting has increased a bit over the last two quarters.   (00:21:24) - We know builders are betting on the future. They're not necessarily breaking ground on all these properties they have permits for because they don't want to oversaturate either. And they're being very judicious with their building because they got caught with a ton of inventory during the Great Recession that they wound up selling at fire sale prices. But the trends are long term, looking like they're going in the right direction right now for new homes. So to help the viewer and listeners chronologically, we're talking about housing permits followed by housing starts. And then finally, housing construction. Right? Permits are up, starts are up recently, but down year over year. And the construction numbers are getting back close to normal levels. And we need the builders to build more because even before the rate lock effect took effect and existing home inventory got so scarce we didn't have enough housing in the works, we were depending on whose numbers you believe, somewhere between 2 and 6 million units short. We need the builders to come back to market. Note for your folks.   (00:22:28) - Keith Investors continue to account for a fairly significant amount of activity in the residential market. Over a quarter of home purchases 26% in June, which is the most recent data we have, were made by investors and believe this number actually under reports the number of investor purchases because it's from a company called CoreLogic, it's accurate data for what they count, but they only count investor purchases where the buying entity has an LLC and LP Corp kind of entity. And we know that a lot of buyers don't do that who are investors. So it probably understates it. But the fact of the matter is that historically speaking, 26% of residential purchases being done by investors is pretty high number. That's a pretty high number and as you alluded to, is probably actually higher than 26% of home purchases being made by investors. And so the headlines will breathlessly tell you that Main Street is being gobbled up by Wall Street. Oh, I know. And those institutional investors are evil people. They're buying everything that the truth is is completely the opposite.   (00:23:31) - If you look at investors who are buying properties, it's really the small investors who are buying about 46% of those investor purchases and medium sized investors about 35%. If you're looking at the biggest of the big investors, they're buying less than 10% of what's going out today. And they still own collectively about 3% of the single family rental stock. It's the mom and pop investor who continues to drive the market. Yeah, I'm glad you bring this up, Rick, because there seems to be this outsized perception that institutional money through someone like, say, in Invitation homes is just gobbling up all the good investor homes. And and they're really not. It's mom and pop investors that rule. In fact, there's some legislation pending in D.C. right now that's aimed to keep these institutional investors from doing what they're already not doing and have some tax penalties for anybody who owns. Here's the number that's important. More than 50 properties well, Invitation Homes owns significantly more than 50 properties. I know a lot of medium sized investors who own more than 50 properties.   (00:24:36) - Yeah, they're certainly not institutional investors. They certainly don't have a hedge fund behind them. Important again, for folks in this market to be in touch with their legislators and let them know what's really going on in the marketplace so we don't get this kind of bad legislation. It makes it tough for the average investor to really take full advantage of the opportunities that are out there. 100%. Mom and pop investors might need more than 50 units to obtain financial freedom. Yep. Just to wrap up, Keith, a couple of points on delinquencies and foreclosures. I know a lot of investors got into the business, you know, a decade or so ago and there was just a rash of foreclosure activity and you could buy a distressed property by just walking down the street and knocking on doors. It's a little different these days because of that strong economy we talked about earlier. In that low unemployment rate. Mortgage delinquencies are at an all time low. Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the midpoint of this year, at the end of the second quarter, the total delinquency rate was 3.37%.   (00:25:36) - To put that in context, historically the number is somewhere between 4 and 5%. So not only are we not seeing a lot of delinquencies, we're seeing less than we would see normally as seriously delinquent loans. The ones that are 90 days plus past due is as low as we've seen it in probably the last 6 or 7 years. That's really interesting. So not very many homeowners are in trouble with making their payments, which to some people might seem like a conflict with what we described back in the earlier part of the chat about low savings and higher credit card debt. So many of these homeowners are locked in to these really low payments where they got low mortgage interest rates. Plus inflation cannot touch those fixed rate payments. And that's an important point for those people that are in these homes. It would be more expensive for them to go rent right now, probably because they got such a good deal on the mortgage rate. There's usually a pretty strong correlation between unemployment rates and mortgage delinquency rates. So I mentioned that the most recent report had unemployment at 3.8%.   (00:26:37) - I think at the end of June it was a 3.5%. So we might see delinquency rates tick up a little bit. There was also some really bad social media memeing going on during the government's mortgage forbearance program. There was even an economist who predicted that almost everybody who got a forbearance was going to go into default and that would have been a catastrophe. If you look back a little over a year ago, actually more like two years ago when there was there were a lot of people in forbearance. You saw delinquency rates very high, but that was because people were allowed to miss payments. They were just being counted by the industry as delinquent. The fact is that less than a half of a percent, less than one half of 1% of the borrowers who were in forbearance and there were 8.5 million of them have defaulted on their loans. The overwhelming majority have done very, very well with that program. So it really didn't contribute to any kind of delinquency or default activity. So strong economy, extremely high, low quality because lenders really haven't been making many risky loans since the Great Recession.   (00:27:40) - The record amount of of homeowner equity that's out there. Yeah. Is keeping this market pretty solid to the point where foreclosure activity today is still running at a little bit less than 60% of pre-pandemic levels. So in a normal market, about 1 to 1.5% of loans are in some state of foreclosure. In today's market, it's about a half a percent. So we're just not seeing much go into foreclosure and the properties that go into foreclosure. The homeowners have a significant amount of equity. 92% of borrowers in foreclosure have equity in their homes, which is wildly different from where we were during the great financial crisis, when a third of all homeowners were underwater on their loans. At just about everybody in foreclosure was upside down. And people push back at me when I'm out talking at conferences about this. Keith Oh, yeah, they have equity, but they don't have enough equity to make a difference. Oh, yes, they do. 88% of the borrowers in foreclosure have more than 20% equity. That's typically the magic number that a realtor will tell you you need in order to sell your property and avoid any other kind of complications with one of these foreclosures, preventing any sort of fire sale and lowering of prices that makes all home prices go down in a neighborhood where not anywhere near that.   (00:28:57) - No, not at all. And in fact, some other data that I'll share with you and your listeners is that about 62% of the distressed property sales we see right now are properties in the early stage of foreclosure prior to the foreclosure auction, which means these distressed homeowners are protecting their equity by selling the property before it gets sold at a foreclosure sale. And so they're protecting the vast amount of this equity. But if you're an investor in today's market, there's some really important information in what I just gave you. You can't wait for the bank repossession. In this cycle, bank repossessions are running 70% below where they were prior to the pandemic, so there's fewer properties getting to auction because 67% of these distressed property sales are prior to the auction. Properties that get to auction are selling through at about 60% rate. So there's nothing going back to the lenders. So if you want to buy a property in some stage of foreclosure, your best bet in today's market is to get a list of people in the early stages of foreclosure and reach out directly to them.   (00:30:01) - Your second best bet is to get to that foreclosure auction. Be ready to move at the auction, and your worst bet is to wait for the lender to repossess the property. And in fact, I've seen anecdotal data that suggests that those properties are actually more expensive than the ones you could buy from the homeowner or at the auction because the lenders are fixing them up and selling them at full market price. Good guidance for those chasing distressed properties. So that's what's going on in the foreclosure market. I don't see foreclosure activity being back to normal levels until sometime next year. And I don't see activity bank repossessions being back to normal levels even next year. It's a very different marketplace. This is what I was just talking about. Keith If you were to break up what selling and what stage of the foreclosure process right now, about 64% of distressed sales are taking place prior to the foreclosure auction and less than 20%. Distressed sales today are those background properties. So it's a very different world than what a lot of investors grew up in.   (00:31:03) - Rick is about to share his summary with us, his closing thoughts. Before he does that, I've got two questions for you, Rick. I hear some people out there, it seems to be oftentimes the real estate agent type, maybe that's trying to be a big cheerleader for the market. And I hear a few of them say something like, hey, you know what? You better buy now, because when mortgage rates fall, home prices are really going to shoot through the roof. I don't really know that that necessarily happens because when mortgage rates fall, okay, that might increase demand of capable homebuyers, but it should also increase supply. Now, the mortgage rate lock in effect, goes away and more people will want to bring supply onto the market. And I also like to think about what happens when rates are falling. Typically, that means the economy needs help and unemployment might be a little higher. So my thoughts, Rick, are if mortgage rates do fall substantially, that might help home price appreciation a little bit, but I don't see it as any sure thing that that would make home prices go through the roof.   (00:32:00) - What are your thoughts? It's a great question. You make a very logical argument. A lot of it comes down to supply. And that's where I would hedge my bets. I don't think we see a ton of supply come back to market until rates are back in the low fives. So there's a point and a half of interest going from little over seven to maybe 5.5%, where we're probably going to see more buyers come to market than we're going to see inventory come to the market. My other thought we touched on it earlier is with rents. Talk to me about the future direction of rents. They were horribly hot a year or two ago, up 15% year over year. Rents have moderated substantially. But with this really lousy home affordability and a high homeownership rate, it seems like with this low affordability, we're set up for the homeownership rate to go lower in the proportion that rent go higher, which could put upward pressure on rents over time here. What are your thoughts with rents? Yeah, offsetting what you just said is a record number of apartment units coming to market this year.   (00:33:03) - There are likely to be some markets across the country that wind up oversupplied because of the amount of inventory coming to market. Now, don't get me wrong, the inventory coming to market is going to tend to be expensive inventory. And so that in and of itself could make rent prices come up a bit. I do believe in the short term I would tend to agree with you that the lack of housing stock available for people who would like to buy is going to play in the benefit of the folks who own properties to rent. And that will, I believe, be particularly true for people that own single family residential units that are like houses to rent. I guess we're going to split the difference on these two questions. I'm going to mostly agree with you on the second one. I do believe there's a chance prices will go up a little bit more than you think as mortgage rates come down until we get down to about 5.5%, mortgage rates are lower when we see more of that inventory coming to market. And what is the real wild card in all of this, of course, is what happens with the overall economy.   (00:34:03) - Do we enter a recession? Does unemployment spike? If that's the case, that should weaken, demand a bit and you could have a little bit of an uptick in foreclosures, which will weaken the market as well. So a lot of different components at play. And I think what people ask you questions like that, Keith, about, you know, mortgage rates come down, is this going to happen? They kind of oversimplify the equation quite a bit. There are a lot of other variables that go into it. 100%. Why don't you go ahead and share your closing thoughts with us? A lot of stuff we covered, so I won't dwell on too much of this very long. But from my perspective, a recession is still a real possibility. Probably not until next year if we have one. And if we do, it's likely to be pretty mild and fairly short and we shouldn't see a huge, huge spike in unemployment. I do believe that as the Fed decides it's done raising the Fed funds rate and announces that we'll see mortgage rates gradually decline back toward 6% by the end of this year.   (00:34:57) - And we'll be back in the fives next year. And by the way, historically, every time the Fed has stopped raising the Fed funds rate, we have seen mortgage rates come back down. Existing home sales right now are on pace for their lowest number since 2009. Likely, we're going to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.2 million existing home sales. But we're likely to see more new home sales than a lot of people had forecast beginning of this year, maybe 650, 675,000 of those sales in 2023. And we've seen prices decline in the new home market, but they might have bottomed out in the existing home market because of the supply and demand thing that Keith and I have kind of beaten to death during this podcast. Again, importantly for this audience, investors continue to account for a very large percentage of residential purchases and a lot of you seem to be shifting toward buy and hold strategies, which again makes ultimately good sense in a market like today's. And then that anticipated wave of foreclosures that all those folks on YouTube were trying to sell you courses to figure out how to maximize never materialized.   (00:35:57) - And at least during this cycle, not likely to any time soon. Probably won't. Yes, A lot of people a couple of years ago, especially on YouTube, were talking about a certain price collapse is coming and it never happened. And I never saw how it would have happened and I never made those sort of dire predictions. Well, Rick, this was a great chat about the overall economy, the housing market and what investors need with the housing market. I'm sure our audience learned an awful lot. It was a terrific update. If our audience wants to learn more about you and kind of wish this chat would just go on and they could learn more about you and engage with your resources. What's the best way for them to do that? Well, you can certainly follow me on social media. I refuse to say my Twitter handle is just Rick Saga. I'm on LinkedIn to hard to find there. You can also check out my website which is Patrick. Com. Enjoy doing these conversations with you Keith.   (00:36:51) - Think the first time we talked you reached out because I had come down like the wrath of God on somebody who was predicting a housing price crash because I didn't see one coming either and thought he was doing investors a disservice. So keep the faith and keep the good fight going. Keith And I'll be here whenever you want to talk. Jerry Listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They have provided our tribe with more loans than anyone there truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. Com. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with freedom family investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%.   (00:38:00) - Their minimums are as low as 25. K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660. And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six six, eight six, six. Hi, this is Russell Gray, co-host of the Real Estate Guy's radio show. And you're listening to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold. Don't Quit Your Day dream. Yeah, terrific insight from Rick, as usual. It's remarkable how much this interview is aligned with what we're doing here. As Rick discussed how, though, it's a tough environment for homebuyers, it's better for investors, especially for single family rentals and especially in the Midwest and South are core areas.   (00:39:23) - It's a better market for the buy and hold investor than it is for flippers. It's a tough chase for flippers. Sometimes you don't flip the house, the house flips you. There are still so few homeowners in delinquency and foreclosure. Rick believes that when lower mortgage rates come, home, prices could appreciate more than I tend to think. We'll see how that turns out. And, you know, historically here, as we talk about the direction of home prices and the direction of rent growth Now with respect to home prices, when I provided you with the home price appreciation forecast, I keep somewhat undershooting. The market appreciation tends to outperform what I think by just a bit. Back in 2018, 2019, home price appreciation rates, they were just kind of bumping along at 4 or 5%. Back then, interest rates were super low, housing supply was more balanced. And I said right here on this show then about five years ago, that I don't see what will make home price growth like really accelerate or shoot up from here.   (00:40:32) - Well, then we had the pandemic, something that no one saw coming when the pandemic fog cleared. You remember that all here on the show in late 2021, I forecast 9 to 10% home price appreciation for the coming year, which back then I was talking about 2022. And then that appreciation rate for 2022 came in at 10.2%. Although I was close, I shot just a touch low. Now at the end of 2022, well, about nine months ago, I predicted zero home price appreciation for this year. As we near the fourth quarter, it looks like we'll get low single digit appreciation, but that remains to be seen. However, I've long been undershooting the market just a bit, though. Close and mortgage rates. No, don't even ask me. I don't try I don't make mortgage forecast. That is too hard to do. Making a mortgage rate prediction is almost like a certain way to be wrong. Although Rick and I talked about how this is a good market for investors, to my point from last week, in some markets, cash flow has become an endangered species with some of these increasing expenses for investors.   (00:41:46) - And again, I have some really good news for you here. We have largely solved that problem here at Gray of higher mortgage rates, hurting your cash flow. And that's why investors like you are still snapping up rental properties from Marketplace right now because of the strength of our marketplace network and relationships. Here we have a new build provider offering a mortgage rate to investors of 5.75%. Yes, they will see that your rate is bought down to 5.75%. In today's environment, another new build investment property provider is offering a rate buy down to 4.75%. Yes, you heard THAtrillionIGHT? And we have another builder provider where our investment coaches have been sharing with you a 2.99% seller financing option. There is more to it than that. And these builders, though they are in business to move property. So take advantage of it where you can. And besides buying down your mortgage rate for you like that, some are even waiving their property management fee for you for the first year. In addition to buying down the rate. I don't know how long all that's going to last, so this can be a really good time for you to contact your in investment coach.   (00:43:06) - Your coach will help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Today, your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace. Com slash coach and they're there to help you out. And marketplace properties they are often less expensive than elsewhere in addition to the low rates from some of the providers. But now you might wonder why often are the prices not always, but often, why are they lower? Well, first of all, investor advantage markets just intrinsically have lower prices than the national median. And secondly, there is no real estate agent to compensate with the traditional 6% commission, you are buying more directly. Thirdly, these property providers, they are not. And pop flippers that provide investors like you and other people where they just flip like one home a year instead. These are builders and renovation and management companies in business to do this at scale so they get to buy their materials in bulk, keeping the price lower for you.   (00:44:20) - And another reason that you tend to find good deals at Marketplace is that you aren't buying properties from owner occupants where their emotions get involved and they get irrational over there on the seller side. So you can go ahead and get started with off market deals at GRI, marketplace.com. If you'd like the free coaching from our investment coaches, then contact your coach. And if you don't have one yet again you can do that straight at GRI marketplace.com/coach that's an action item for you this week that your future self should thank you for until next week. I'm your host Keith Winfield. 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Even though mortgage rates are up 100 points since the beginning of 2023, home prices are likely to stay flat or increase due to tight housing supply.----- Transcript -----Jim Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, co-head of U.S. Securitized Products Research here at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: And I'm Jay Bacow, the other Co-Head of U.S. Securities Products Research. Jim Egan: And on this episode of the podcast, we'll be discussing U.S. home prices. It's Wednesday, September 13th at 11 a.m. in New York. Jay Bacow: Jim, mortgage rates are up over 100 basis points since the beginning of the year, but I hear you were turning more optimistic on home prices. What gives? Jim Egan: Well, the first thing that I would say is that home price data is pretty lagged and that an increase in mortgage rates is not going to be felt immediately in the data. For instance, let's assume the last week of August ends up being the peak in mortgage rates for this cycle. When would you expect that rate to start showing up in actual purchase mortgages? Jay Bacow: So, if the peak in mortgage rates is the end of August, we will get data on people applying for the mortgage the following week from the Mortgage Bankers Association. But it takes about seven weeks right now to close a mortgage. If the peak was at the end of August, the mortgages are probably closing towards the end of October, almost at Halloween. But if it closes in October, Jim, when will we actually get that data? Jim Egan: Right. The home price data is even more lagged than that. The Case-Shiller prints that we forecast and that we've talked about on this podcast, those come out with a two month delay. So those October sales, we're not going to see until December. Again, for instance, the print we just got at the end of August, that was for home prices in June. Jay Bacow: So in other words, we haven't seen the full impact of this increase in rates yet on the housing market and the data that we can see. But when we do, what's the impact going to be on home prices? Jim Egan: Well, we think the immediate impact is going to be on a few other aspects of the housing market, and then those aspects are going to potentially impact home prices. The most straightforward level here is affordability, right? That's an equation that includes prices, mortgage rates, as well as incomes, and so we're talking about the mortgage rate component. Now, one thing that you and I have said on this podcast before, Jay, is that affordability in the U.S. housing market, it's still challenged, but at least so far this year it really hasn't been getting any worse. That's not the case anymore. Affordability is still very challenged and now it's started to get worse again. By our calculations, the monthly payment on the median priced home is up 18% over the past year, and that's the first time that deterioration has accelerated since October of 2022. Three month and six month changes in affordability have also resumed deteriorating after those were actually improving earlier this year. Jay Bacow: So if homes are getting less affordable, presumably home sales should fall? Jim Egan: We think that would be kind of the probable impact there and it is something that we're seeing. To be clear, affordability is not deteriorating anywhere near as rapidly as it did in 2022, and we don't expect the same sharp declines in home sales. But this really does give us further confidence in our L-shaped forecast, and if anything it could provide a little more pressure on existing home sales. But we're also seeing the impact on the supply side of the equation. Jay Bacow: But wasn't the supply side already incredibly low? For instance, our truly refinanceable index calculates what percent of the universe has at least 25 basis points of incentive to refinance. It's at less than 1% right now. The average outstanding mortgage rate for the agency market is 3.68%. Are we really expecting the supply to fall further? Jim Egan: So that wasn't part of our original forecast and we had been seeing existing inventories really start to climb off of recorded lows. For context, our data there goes back about 40 years, but that's taken an abrupt about face in recent months. The 13% year-over-year decrease in inventory that we just saw this past month, that's the sharpest drop since June 2021, with a contraction coming through both new and existing listings. As affordability has resumed its deterioration with this increase in mortgage rates, homebuilder confidence actually fell month over month for the first time this year. Now, tight supply should continue to provide support to home prices, even as affordability has become more challenged. Jay Bacow: And so what does that support for home prices end up looking like? Jim Egan: The short answer, we expect a return to year-over-year growth with the next print that we're going to get here at the end of September. Case-Shiller year-over-year has actually fallen for each of the past three months. We think that ends now. We have a forecast of plus 0.7% year-over-year with a print that's just about to come out and that would be a new record high. With home prices then surpassing their levels in June of 2022, at least for that index. Our base case forecast for year end has been 0% growth, with our bull case at plus 5%. The evolution of the inputs since particularly the supply point here continues to be tighter than what was already pretty tepid expectations on our part. That has us expecting HPA to finish the year between these two levels, that base case and that bull case level. Jay Bacow: All right, Jim, it's always great talking to you. Jim Egan: Great talking to you, too, Jay. Jay Bacow: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on the Apple Podcast app and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.