Global Macro Update

The simultaneous sell-off of stocks, bonds, and US dollar is a big deal. Brent Donnelly from Spectra Markets explains how broken trust has left permanent scars on US trade policy: “Once an action has been taken, you can remove the action, but then there's still going to be some damage.”

All trade wars have a currency effect, but what happens when nations drive down their currencies to counter US tariffs? John Mauldin explains why he doesn't believe China is using US treasuries as a weapon—and where the trade war will hurt most.

There's no substitute for experience. That was evident this week in the markets. While most people were confused or frozen, at least one investor (our old friend Jared) was making money after spending the past few months positioning himself for a week like this one. Part of his strategy involves using options, but not for speculation…

Private equity is buying up America—everything from nursing homes to the local plumbing business. Some are calling it a bubble, with the value of global private equity deals reaching $2 trillion in 2024. Brendan Ballou, author of the new book Plunder, says the real trouble with PE comes from weak regulations that incentivize bad decisions.

Modern history is rife with examples of wars that grind on needlessly, only to end with no clear winner. There is a risk this will happen with Ukraine, though President Trump is eager to force a settlement. BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic joins us to unpack what happens next.

Inflation is dropping quickly, but you wouldn't know it from the headlines. Danielle DiMartino Booth explains why, highlighting layoffs and other underreported recession signals. As she's said before, “There is no greater drag on inflation than job loss.”

George is back! Over half a million people caught my last interview with George shortly after the US and Russia began settlement discussions about Ukraine. Today he responds to the animated comments that followed, explaining why Russia cannot wage war in Europe, NATO's diminishing relevance, and how the flurry of activity at the White House compares to Roosevelt's first hundred days in office.

Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian is here to talk deflationary tariffs, troubling signs from the housing market, the rising risk of a recession, and why he's “super bullish on bonds.”

In the US, 10% of commercial egg-laying hens have died from the bird flu in the last eight weeks. Egg prices are set to soar another 41% this year. Are we in for another pandemic? Cumberland Advisors co-founder David Kotok discusses the economic domino effects of pandemics across history.

If you feel like the world order is being rearranged, you're right. George Friedman explains the geopolitical machinations behind Ukraine settlement talks and President Trump's plan to “redesign the world.”

My friend Jacob Shapiro is back, and he sees ample opportunities for investors who can tune out white-noise media. “For the next five, 10 years, these are the years of plenty.”  We also cover economic resiliency, US energy security, and the ripple effects of tariffs on US-China relations.

The US has a China problem. Our biggest geopolitical rival has a massive trade surplus, and it's working to usurp America's position as the global hegemon. What effect will the new Trump tariffs have on this ongoing rivalry? As our guest today, China specialist Lyric Hughes Hale says, “Communism always ends in tears.”

China has weaponized fentanyl against the US. Today we're speaking with Canadian journalist Sam Cooper about how China and Canada drive the opioid trade, money laundering in Vancouver, Mexican cartels, and corruption at the highest levels of government. They're all in on it…

US-Canada relations are strained. Many believe Canada isn't doing enough to choke off illegal immigration or to protect North America's security interests in the Artic, which Russia and China aim to dominate. We're covering this and more with Canadian journalist Jonathan Roth.

The stock market dipped 3% on Wednesday, and I know many investors are getting nervous. Hearing from a technical analyst like Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, is particularly important now, when the leading macro analysts all seem to have wildly different outlooks. Note: We recorded this interview on Dec. 12.

Felix Zulauf says “We're moving away from the world we come from.” He's back again to discuss the Trump tariffs, deglobalization, and the slide toward “state capitalism.” Listen in to learn where to invest in 2025 to benefit from the changing world order.

My friend Jared Dillian is back to discuss everything from Indian stocks, Milei's Argentina, and burning cars in France, to Social Security and how to make money in 2025.

China Beige Book's Shehzad Qazi pegs the probability of a US-China trade war in 2025 at 100%. Is India the next China? What does slower growth in China mean for the global economy? Get Shehzad's take in our interview.

When it comes to cybersecurity, intelligence expert Karim Hijazi says the election is not “under control.” Russia, China, Iran—plus “hackers for hire”—are busy meddling. Their goal isn't necessarily to tilt the scales in favor of one candidate or party, but to weaken the US as a whole.

Join Ed and macroeconomist Patrick Cox as they discuss demographic reversal, the collapse of Social Security, and rapid advances in longevity medicine, including compelling age-reversal research coming out of Johns Hopkins and MD Anderson.

Dr. Lacy Hunt says the US economy is in a “very precarious situation” and that it's a mistake to pretend people are doing well when a closer look at the economic data shows they are hurting. He walks us through that data, making it easy to digest for the layman.

Manufacturing is returning to North America, thanks to automation, a greater focus on resiliency, and rising labor costs in China. This is a good thing, but it will require massive amounts of energy. Where will it come from? Mark Mills has some answers.

Will oil prices recover anytime soon? And what role should oil and gas stocks play in your portfolio? Get some answers from Piper Sandler global energy economist Jan Stuart, along with his thoughts on nuclear energy and China's “giant Achilles heel.”

The narrative around oil is that a global supply glut and weak demand from China will continue to keep oil prices down. Bison Interests founder Josh Young tells a different story, filled with OPEC cheaters, nationalization undertones, and a much smaller global oil supply than people think.

Building resiliency, in part by decoupling the US economy from China's, is essential to our long-term security. China is doing the same thing. Yet China's export business is booming, and it dominates trade with other emerging markets. Is a communist nation beating us at capitalism?

Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian highlights the $8 trillion private equity bubble, built on massive layers of debt, that poses a systemic threat to the entire financial system. Will we get another implosion like we had in 2008?

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did we cross a line? Or did we cross it decades earlier in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks?

Is the age of plenty over? Economist Bill White says it ended with COVID. Now we're moving into an age of scarcity—and it's putting us at war. As Bill puts it, “We're in a war to preserve our market-based, capitalist, democratic system in an environment that is going to be very, very difficult to navigate.”

Something phenomenal happened in 2001: People generated more information that year than they had in all human history combined to that point. Hear from former CIA analyst Martin Gurri, who unpacks the effects of this information “tsunami” in his book, The Revolt of the Public.

Is the US in “Cold War II” with China? CrowdStrike founder Dmitri Alperovitch believes we are, and that it could turn kinetic, starting with China invading Taiwan. Why? China can't dominate everything in and around the South China Sea without full control of Taiwan. Is an invasion imminent?

We're entering the golden age of macro investing says Harris Kupperman, the founder of Praetorian Capital, but it won't be fun for everyone. As the world unravels, thanks to runaway government debt and even more inflation, it will create exceptional opportunities for strategically positioned macro investors. 

Will the stock market rise another 50% by 2030? Dr. Ed Yardeni says it could, citing tech-fueled productivity gains. Join me, Dr. Ed, and his colleague Eric Wallerstein (formerly of the New York Fed and The Wall Street Journal) as we discuss interest rates, inflation, and the housing market, plus which market sectors investors should focus on now.

AI is amplifying online national security threats. Intelligence expert Karim Hijazi discusses the “new Cold War” and how cyberspace became the primary medium for spycraft and warfare among advanced nations.

QI Research founder Danielle DiMartino Booth unpacks recession signals, how America lost its ability to budget, and whether we're barreling toward stagflation. You'll also hear about AI's impact on jobs, “condo-mageddon,” and what all this means for the markets.

Gold keeps reaching new highs with demand coming from central banks, particularly China's. Renowned macro portfolio manager Nick Glinsman discusses his preferred method for holding gold, the bifurcation of global commodity markets, and one of his top oil plays.

RiskHedge Chief Analyst Stephen McBride says, “99% of crypto is absolute garbage. I wouldn't touch it. I think the other 1% will change the world.” Stephen runs a crypto advisory that's outperformed bitcoin. He shares his crypto portfolio's largest holding and how new bitcoin ETFs will change crypto investing.

Broken Money author, Lyn Alden, likens today's inflation to the fiscal-driven inflation of the 1940s. Add in a runaway federal deficit and increasing geopolitical instability, and it's no surprise that gold and bitcoin have both reached new all-time highs.

Big Tech is watching. Companies like Google track what you read and watch, where you drive, and what you buy. Most of this is out of your control. Frank McCourt, Jr., author of Our Biggest Fight and former LA Dodgers owner, is putting up $500 million to change that.

Most Americans are pro-nuclear now, but US regulators are hindering our nuclear energy program without making us safer. Nuclear engineer Dr. Robert Zubrin highlights the onerous regulatory process, as well as the exciting progress we're making with fusion and SMRs. You'll also hear how the US is ceding global nuclear markets to its top adversary.

India looks amazing on paper: 1.4 billion people, the world's fastest-growing economy, and rapid digitization. In this episode, you'll hear why Cognitive Investment partner Jacob Shapiro gives India's hottest growth sector a “9 or a 10.”

Has Xi already lost control? Renowned geopolitical strategist George Friedman is on the podcast to discuss the threat of civil war in China, solutions to the stalemate in Ukraine, and the future of Gaza.

Grant Williams calls Evergreen Gavekal CIO David Hay “one of the good guys.” We're excited to welcome him to the podcast. Get David's insights on the future of small nuclear reactors, China, and a specific investing signal you should be watching now.

Author and former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian discusses the Fed, why 90% of managing money is waiting, and his latest book, No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life. Jared shares how to get your big financial choices right—and the one decision that trumps them all.

Defense Dept. alumnus Elbridge Colby outlines the plan the US should implement now to avoid a “hot” war with China. This interview is a critical follow-up to Colby's last discussion with Ed D'Agostino about Taiwan's importance to US national security.

Foreign policy expert Elbridge Colby, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, breaks down China's plan to dominate the Eastern Hemisphere and then challenge US hegemony. In other words: Are we going to war with China?

Former US Army Ranger Paul Scharre knows all about AI's darker potential. He talks to Mauldin Economics publisher Ed D'Agostino about AI's role in combat, the rise of Chinese-style techno-authoritarianism, and US vulnerabilities in the Panama Canal.

Renowned political pollster Dr. Frank Luntz says 70% of Americans don't want a Biden vs. Trump rematch. Two-thirds would actively consider a third-party candidate. But could a third-party candidate actually win?

Good stuff is happening. GDP is up. Unemployment is low. Inflation has dropped. Yet people seem miserable. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm explains the disconnect.

When Felix Zulauf has a hunch, he's usually right. Ed D'Agostino interviews Zulauf, the former head of UBS's institutional portfolio management group and founder of Zulauf Consulting, about the end of the multipolar world and where the markets are headed.

Argentina may have finally done something right. Ed D'Agostino interviews Jared Dillian, author of No Worries and Editor of The Daily Dirtnap, about investing in emerging markets, Argentina's new president-elect, and how to build a “life hedge” into your portfolio.

The US is scrambling to “de-risk” from China by fortifying US supply chains. But China has been de-risking from the US for over a decade. Ed D'Agostino speaks with former UBS chief economist George Magnus about what this geopolitical transformation means for Western investors and the huge changes happening at China's Central Bank.