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Discover powerful strategies to maximize your rental property returns and minimize costly vacancies. Learn how top investors are transforming their approach to property management, from tenant retention techniques to smart staffing solutions. Key Insights: Master the art of keeping great tenants and reducing turnover Understand when to scale your property management approach Explore innovative investment opportunities beyond traditional real estate Market Trends Spotlight: Rental demand is on the rise Emerging investment options offer unique wealth-building potential Strategic diversification is key to long-term financial success Explore alternative investment opportunities like sustainable teak forestry - a generational wealth strategy that offers: Low entry point Long-term growth potential International diversification Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, these insights will help you make more informed, profitable real estate decisions. Resources: Learn more about the teak tree investment opportunity at Gremarketplace.com/teak Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/555 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, learn how to reduce a giant operational expense that you'll have over time your tenant vacancy and turnover, including how many units you must own before you hire your own on site property manager as your employee. Whatever happened to agent commissions in light of last year's NAR settlement, then a timely update on teak tree investing today on Get Rich Education.   Mid South home buyers. I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated their zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis. Get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Welcome to GRE from Manchester, New Hampshire to Manchester, England and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside one of America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is get rich education. What's all that stuff really mean? I'm just another slack jawed and snaggletooth podcaster, a shaved mammal with a microphone. I'm joining you from here in London, England this week for the first time ever on the show. More on that later. Let's talk about reducing the biggest operational expense that you're ever going to have as a real estate investor, at least the one that you can exert a good measure of control over. That is reducing your tenant vacancy and turnover, that constant menace. Now, I suppose you might say that property tax is your biggest ongoing ops expense, but you've got less control over your property tax rate. So yeah, we're talking about increasing your net income by lowering your VIMTUM operating expenses. Vacancy is the V in that acronym. This is big because this can make or break your ability to have your property create positive cash flow and getting tenant turnover right both increases your income and reduces your expenses. It is springtime currently, and it's soon going to be summer, so it is the right time to talk about this. It's when there is more tenant turnover. The goal here is for you to really move the dial in increase the likelihood that your tenant is going to renew their lease. Now, sure if your tenant gets a new job out of town, they're going to move out. But if they're moving because of too many maintenance issues, well then that's something that you could have fixed. The average tenancy duration in the US over time is two to three years. And of course, that's going to be longer in single family rentals and shorter in apartments. And how long your tenant stays is driven by three factors, the price of your unit, the quality of your maintenance and the quality of your management. Let's say that your tenant moves out. To be conservative, that your vacancy period is two months between tenants. Okay, that's the turnover and the time to lease. It two months is a somewhat longish vacancy period. But come on, it happens sometimes, especially if you're going to make upgrades between tenancies and you're busy with other things in your life, if you have a move out every year at that rate, well, that is too often. That would amount. To a vacancy percentage of 14% you might think it's 17% but it isn't, because it's a 12 month vacancy plus two vacant months, all right, but if instead that tenant moves out every two years, that's just 8% vacancy, and every three years that's just 5% vacancy. Of course, if you keep your vacancy period to only one month rather than two, you can have all those numbers. You can really see how you are increasing your income by retaining the tenant. The most vital thing for you to keep in mind is that fast quality maintenance and good communication are by far the best forms of customer service that a property manager can provide, so prompt, quality maintenance. That's a retention strategy. Being a proactive helps. One strategy you can engage in is to reach out to the tenants two months before their lease is set to renew, and that's the time to give them the new lease price and ask them if they intend to stay. If they say, No, they're not, ask them why. And occasionally, you can sway them if there's been a misunderstanding in your relationship, for example, a lingering maintenance issue that hasn't been addressed, and perhaps they didn't bother to contact you about that, if nothing else, I think I mentioned this to you one time before offering a small reward, like a gift card helps. I mean, creating this sense of reciprocation is really one of the best retention tactics out there, even if the items being reciprocated aren't anywhere near equal value, like the value of a 12 month lease versus you giving them, say, a $50 gift card now, say you've tried those strategies, and none of that works, and your tenant does decide to leave, perhaps 45 days from now, but you know that you've got time in your life to turn over the unit now, and You know that you're going to be really busy with other things in 45 days. One thing that you can do then is shift your strategy to pay the tenant. Say you can pay them as little as 10 or 20 bucks a day to leave early. This way they'll vacate during a period where you've got the time to devote to the vacancy and the turnover and the showings to prospective new tenants, and that way, it's not going to linger vacant as long now, a technique like this is a little similar to an eviction, where if a tenant has violated their lease or becomes non paying, without you having to go through the length of Your court driven formal eviction process, you can pay them a lump sum to leave early. Hopefully that's not your situation, but that can come up. And I think you've heard of it before. This is known as the Cash for Keys strategy. That means to get a tenant that's made some violation against their lease, and you want to have them vacate the unit sooner. This means that you get the keys in your hand and the right to enter when you pay them to leave, rather than having to go through the not so fun eviction process and see a tenant wants to avoid a formal eviction as well, because that goes on their record, and then it can make it tough for that tenant to get rental housing elsewhere. But I dislike the Cash for Keys strategy in order to hold off from a formal eviction, because what that does is that rewards a person that violated a lease, although we know that that might also shorten your economic vacancy period, and it could actually be economically beneficial to you, Cash for Keys. It's just not ethical, though. I know it might be tempting for you, the landlord, the cash for key strategy. It rewards societally immoral behavior. Now, of course, you might be using a professional property manager that does all of this stuff for you, like I do today, but still, these are often the best practices for your manager. And I started out self managing, just like a lot of real estate investors do in the beginning, and that's where I learned strategies and techniques like this for reducing your tenant vacancy and turnover. Now, here's a really interesting question that you may not have had to ask yourself yet, but you may down the road, if you've grown your portfolio to a certain size and you're serious about reducing your vacancy and turnover expense, it might be time to ask yourself one big question, and that is for your management and maintenance. Should you use contractors, or should you start to hire your own employees? Now, if you have a small portfolio, it won't be enough work for you to keep an employee busy, so you should go with contract. Contractors. On the other hand, if you have an apartment complex with on site property management, I would definitely recommend having a make ready crew on site, because it's just so easy for them to get to and from a job site. Now, you should still maintain relationships with contractors as a backup, of course, and you should also have specialists like plumbers, electricians and HVAC people ready to call now, most investors are small and they use off site management, but if you grow big enough someday, or maybe it's two day, the important point about employees is that you really need to stay on them, because every extra hour costs you. You don't want anyone out there who's thinking that speed isn't essential, because they're like, ah, you know, I get paid by the hour. Contractors, on the other hand, they quote you or your manager a job up front. So while an extra day hurts because it's one more day you can't lease the unit, it hurts less than it does if you have your own employees. One problem with contractors is they often can't start right away, and this tends to be more true if you're self managing. See if you use a professional manager. They might have their own in house people so you can leverage their employees without having to manage employees yourself, even if your manager brings in an off site contractor, like an electrician or a plumber. Well, that contractor probably gets a lot of business from your property manager, and they have some sense of loyalty to your property manager, therefore, they're incentivized to show up on time faster than if you're trying to self manage, say, your small portfolio of five properties, and you or your tenant are the ones that call the electrician or the plumber. Well, those contractors are going to be less likely to prioritize you and your infrequent requests, and this is just another reason that I like to employ professional management and not self manage. Now, virtually no new real estate investor is going to hire their own employees, and most are never going to at all. All right, but how do you know? How would you know when it's time to hire your own property manager or your own contractor, and have them on your own payroll and you are their boss, if you've got under 20 to 30 units, all right, typically third party property management or self management with contractors, that's going to make more sense, because having a full time, dedicated employee, it's just not financially justifiable. Below 20 or 30 units, you're not going to be able to keep that employee busy. And I'm generally talking about if you have one apartment building here, or a bunch of single family rentals, only if they're in small, close proximity to each other. What about if you grow up to 30 to 60 units? All right now you're in a gray area. If the property is something that's pretty management intensive, like high turnover, or you own an older building, or you generate a lot of work orders, or you're in a challenging area. Well, at 30 to 60 units, you might justify a part time on site person. So how that could practically work in this 30 to 60 unit gray area, what you can do is have a resident manager that gets free rent, plus perhaps a small stipend from you. Okay, so that's a strategy that you can play in this gray area zone. That way they can be responsive to tenant requests, and you can keep your vacancy and turnover costs down. All right, how about when you're going even bigger and you reach 60 to 100 units. Now you're in the range where a full time on site manager or a maintenance person, starts to make financial and operational sense, because here it's 60 to 100 units. Your staffing model, it might be that you have one full time manager, they do the leasing, the tenant relations, in the admin stuff, and you'll also have a second person, a full time maintenance tech if they're needed, all right? And the final tier here, if you reach more than 100 units, oh, okay, now it is standard for you to have a full on site team. You could be in the hundreds of units. So we're talking about a property manager, a leasing agent, a maintenance lead, a groundskeeper and sometimes also a part time assistant manager. So that's it. That's the hierarchy of how, based on your portfolio size and where they're located, how you can serve tenants well and reduce your vacancy and turnover expense. Yes. All right now, what are some things that can shift those thresholds, those unit counts? Well, high rent or luxury buildings, they often need on site staff at a smaller unit count, very low rent or section eight properties, they may need more intensive oversight, buildings that have amenities, like some of these newer apartment buildings that have a pool and a gym, okay, that can trigger some more staffing needs. And if you own multiple properties that are nearby to each other, well, then you can share employees across those properties. And you've got to look at local labor costs in places like New York City, northeastern New Jersey, parts of New England, Miami or LA, those high cost places. Then breaking even on staffing. That probably takes a bigger property than those numbers that I talked about. But here, we tend to invest in those investor advantage areas, the inland northeast, the South, in the southeast, in the Midwest. Now, if you've got, say, even 50 smaller properties, but they're scattered all over the place, in multiple states, well then of course, you're not going to hire employees. A good general metric to leave you with here is that one on site employee for every 50 to 80 units that you own in the same area, that is common, that is a common industry practice in market rate multifamily apartments right now, these are pretty timeless strategies I've been talking about with you here.    As for what's happening in The market lately, I continue to slowly get more optimistic about the long beleaguered apartment market. A few weeks ago, I talked about how there's finally been greater apartment rent increases, although those rent increases are still historically low. What recently we learned that apartments are seeing a longer duration of tenancy and today, per real page, every single one of the 50 largest apartment markets has posted month over month occupancy gains, and then that's somewhat commensurate with what we're seeing on the one to four unit side, because the home ownership rate has fallen. It just fell from 65.7% down to 65.1 quarter over quarter. Now that doesn't sound like much, but that's actually a substantial drop in the home ownership rate in just one quarter. And fewer homeowners means more renters. So this basically means that the percent of Americans, renting has gone up because you just take the flip side of those numbers. So the rentership rate has essentially risen from 34.3 up to 34.9 in just one quarter. Something that completely makes sense, because we all know that home ownership affordability, especially for that first time, home buyer is lower, more renters. Is good for rental property owners. It's bringing more rental demand, more occupancy and more future pressure on rising rents. Now I want to follow up with you on a story from last year that made a lot of waves in the larger real estate world, but not so much for real estate investors. You surely remember this. That is the NAR settlement that a lot of people thought would result in lower real estate agent fees. Lowered commissions were coming. That's what everybody thought last year. Stories about that were all over the place that realtor fees are about to shrink. What's happened since then? Well, not much realtor fees, they still haven't fallen in any significant way, although the settlement was more than a year ago and this went into effect nine months ago. So to back up for a moment, in case you missed it, what happened is that a group of sellers accused the NAR, the National Association of Realtors, of inflating home costs by letting buyer side and seller side agents communicate about commission rates on the MLS home database, which only agents can see. And a jury agreed, so the NAR settled the lawsuit for over $400 million in damages, and it barred agents from sharing commission rates on those MLS databases. So that was a huge change that was expected to extinguish the globally high five to 6% realtor fee in the United States, because global averages are between one and 3% so as a result, the US real estate industry, they were bracing themselves for up to a 30% drop in the commissions that Americans pay annually in fees. But the new rules. Things have been nothing other than a big nothing burger. It only took a matter of weeks, really, for most agents to realize, you know, what did the agents do? They just simply moved their conversations off the NAR website and over to phone, text and email. That's it. Yes, that's all they did. So since that time, the average commission for buyers agents has barely budged. It ticked down less than 110 of 1% so for example, it ticked down less than 500 bucks on a 500k home that's per Redfin. So agents still expect sellers to pay five to 6% now I'm not against agents. Not only can an agent guide you through the process, what they can do is get you a higher sale price than they could have otherwise, because they really know how to market and advertise your property and reach a greater pool of buyers, but their commission rates have hardly budged. And of course, here at GRE marketplace, we typically use a direct model where agent compensation isn't priced into your properties anyway.    To review what you've learned so far today, being proactive can help reduce your tenant vacancy and turnover expense and increase your income. Prompt, quality maintenance, that is a retention strategy in itself, as can having one on site employee for every 50 to 80 apartment units. And one year later, changes at the NIR really haven't reduced aging commissions appreciably. I'm coming to you from London, England today, taking in all the top sites, Buckingham Palace and watching the changing of the guard over there, Big Ben a Thames river cruise and the London Bridge, which is actually called Tower Bridge. The real estate transaction that I'm currently involved in here is paying $550 a night to stay here at a nice hotel in the center of the city. It's right near the Thames, kind of a steep rate, and I sure didn't have to stay right in the city center, where everything is more pricey. But that's the experience that I want to have. Next week, I'll bring you the show from Edinburgh, Scotland, where I'll be paying even more for a well located hotel right on the Royal Mile, and I'll tell you how much more then I am here to boost their economies, I suppose more next, including a really timely update. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 555, of get rich education.    The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   Tom Wheelwright  24:21   this is Rich Dad advisor, Tom wheelwright. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:37   Welcome back to Episode 555, of get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, with an episode number like 555, you would expect me to go deep with you on real estate pays five ways, but we did that five weeks ago on episode 550 with your audio masterclass right here on the show today, we're talking about something with less upside. Than say that or the inflation triple crown, and instead on reducing your downside, vacancy and turnover expense, next week here on the show, I expect to sit down with a guest that's a highly regarded financier and author of a fairly hot new finance book, Christopher Whelan, and next week's show could get really interesting, because I've heard Chris say something about how real estate prices could fall back to 2020 levels. In my opinion, that is so many levels of unlikely that happening is about as likely as your grocery bills falling back to 2020 levels. So we'll see it could turn into a debate next week with Christopher Whelan and I. He is a sharp, well informed guy that also used to work at the New York Fed. That's next week down the road, longtime and former co host of the real estate guys radio show, Russell gray will join us again here, and we'll see what he's been up to in his post real estate guys, radio life that's coming up in a few weeks. Lots of great future content here, monologs, yes, those slack jawed monologs For me, repeat guests and new guests joining in as well. Back to this week now, there's an intriguing and potentially lucrative investment that we've discussed on the show here before, and I do have a timely and crucial update about it. A little while back, I sat down with the teak operations principle when we were in New Orleans together. These are yes, those Panama teak tree plantations that so many of you have already invested in. Yes. So as it is here. I am an American in London today talking about teak trees in Panama and I interviewed our upcoming guest here when we were in New Orleans together, the teak investment has a long time horizon, because trees have to grow. There's also a low cost of entry and no loans available. This is a real estate investment. You can own the land with the title to it and the trees that grow on top of them. Historically, teak returns have been five and a half percent, which doesn't sound like much, but see it grows in board foot volume at the same time that the unit price grows. And if inflation runs high over the next 25 years, your return might be higher. But the reason that we're discussing this now is because the principal, Mike Cobb here meeting with me, he is going to mention a price, and this is key two weeks from today, on June 9, the price for the teak parcels increases substantially. I'll tell you about that shortly. So for GRE followers, you can get locked into the lower price for just two more weeks. Here's my chat from a little while back with the teak tree investment principle, and then I'll return to bring you more.    Hey, did you know that you can own a quarter acre parcel of a producing teak plantation, you own the title to the land, and you get the growth in the trees. On top of that, this is something that you can do as an investor. And teak trees are a valuable hardwood that you own, typically in Central America. So there's a very low cost of entry to this investment, and that's what attracts a lot of people to it. And I am with Mike Cobb, the CEO. He's also the author of the new book how to buy your home overseas and get it right the first time. But Mike, a lot of people are interested in the teak investment because it is so approachable. Tell us about it. Give us a general overview.   Mike Cobb  28:42   absolutely, you know, thanks for having me on. It's always nice to be with you. We're, we're having some fun here in New Orleans, which is terrific, you know, yeah, the teak plantation is something that I envisioned back in 1998 so what's that like 26 years ago? Right? And in 1999 we planted our very first 100 Acre teak plantation. Because what we thought about at the time, which has now proven true 25 years later, is that, you know, I was either going to need the money in 25 years and be really glad I did this, or I wasn't going to need the money in 25 years and I was going to be really glad I did this. You know what? I don't really need the money now, but I'm really glad I did this. And 25 years comes. And I think that's been really the challenge for a lot of people looking at teak. They're just like, ah, 25 years. It's too long, but 25 years comes. 25 years will come, and you can either have planted the trees and be ready to take this huge windfall of return, or you won't be getting a windfall return. So I think that's the challenge, the mental challenge, I think maybe an average investor has, but I know you work with superior investors because they're paying attention to what you're writing, they're watching your podcast, they're reading your newsletter. You have far superior investors than I would say, the average investor. So I think this is a great thing for folks to check out.   Keith Weinhold  30:00   All right, so you're talking about the investment timeline, from the time a tea tree seed is planted until the harvest time that can feel like quite a while. You have been doing this over 25 years, and that is key when you as an investor go offshore or go overseas to have trust in a stable company that's been around for a long time. That's why, really, you're one of the few people that I work with who are outside of the United States real estate like the teak trees.   Mike Cobb  30:25   Thank you. Yeah, we've been around for 31 years. I've been working in the region. 31 our development company is 28 years old. Our plantation is now 26 years old. 25 with the trees, but we bought the land 26 years ago. But the bottom line, you're right and and the other thing that we should care about. And you brought this up earlier, when we're kind of chatting, is country, what country are you planting trees in that you got to wait 25 years for them to mature and harvest? By the way, the Panama. By the way, Panama, and of all the countries in the region where I feel the most comfortable as an investor, Panama's yet, because Panama's got the canal. And I know people say, oh, yeah, that's right. It's a vital strategic US interest. It's a vital world interest. The Chinese care about it as much as we do. The Europeans care about it. Anybody who wants commerce to happen cares about that canal being open. And so you've got this country, Panama, that has the canal stable, economically stable, politically stable. And when starting to talk about 2550 7500, year time frames, because you own the land, you get the harvest in 25 years, you replant, and then your children get the next harvest, and your grandchildren get the next harvest. It is truly generational wealth. Stewardship   Keith Weinhold  31:41   Panama is a little bit like investing overseas with training wheels on their well developed, first Central American nation. They even use the United States dollars. They do is that familiar? Absolutely well. But as the investors thinking about investing in teak plantations, just tell us about the properties of teak wood, of all wood types. Why teak? Tell us about the value there.    Mike Cobb  32:00   Yeah, teak has been grown in plantations, starting with the British back about 400 years ago. And so you've got centuries of plantation growing of teak as a crop, right? And so you've got this incredible longevity of information and things like that. And I know some of the stats off the top of my head, since 1972 the average price of teak lumber has has risen about five and a half percent a year over a 52 year period. Talk about track record, centuries of growing as a crop, right? 52 years as a lumber commodity. Look, people been using it to make ships. Its hardness is its most valuable characteristic is an extremely hard wood. It's resistant to rot fungus, so it's used in outdoor furniture, for example, right? Some of the stuff on the Titanic they pulled up from the bottom of the ocean, you know, chairs made a teak, right? Teak. But ship builders fine furniture, outdoor furniture and and they're cutting teak down. This is so important, they are cutting teak down eight to 10 times faster than anybody in the world is replanting it. So just imagine what that does to supply and demand and prices based on just basic economics, right?   Keith Weinhold  33:13   Yeah, that is some scarcity. That is a really good point. Tell us about what you're surely interested in. What do the investor returns look like.   Mike Cobb  33:21   Yeah. So you know, to own one of these quarter acre parcels, by the way, you said it before you own the land, you get title to the land you own the trees. $6,880 that's your that's your entry. Gosh. So for less than $7,000 you own a quarter acre of teeth trees that in 25 years projected returns. We all projections right about $94,000 a little over $94,000 so 7000 turns into $90,000 over 25 years, harvest, plant the trees again, and in 25 years, your kids or your grandkids will get the next harvest, and so on and so on. It is a powerful generational wealth stewardship. In fact, right now we have what we call give the gift of teak because look, you know, you got kids, you got grandkids. What are you gonna get them? Right? I mean, they got everything they want, presumably, right? You buy them a teak parcel, right? Buy that kid, buy that grandkid, a teak parcel. What a cool idea. Oh my gosh, in 25 years, you might be gone, right, but they're gonna get this big windfall, and they're gonna thank grandma or grandpa, right for for thinking of them 25 years into the future?   Keith Weinhold  34:27   Yeah? Oh, I love that. And you're so proud about what you do. You regularly offer investor tour so that they come and see the teak. But maybe you know, for you, the investor, you're wondering, okay, if you're used to investing in us real estate, you might be making two leaps here. You'd be going from residential real estate to agricultural, and you'd also be investing in a nation outside your home country. And when it comes to those sort of questions, I think any savvy investor asks, okay, what are the risks involved with this investment? Can you tell us about that?   Mike Cobb  34:59   Yeah, sure. Look, you've got political risk, country risk, political risk, which, I think again, of all the countries in the region, Panama, dollar, economy, canal, safe, stable. So the political risk is minimal. It's there. It's real. You know, fire risk is an issue, right? Trees burn. The good thing about teak is that after about year three, they're up. And you keep them trimmed, trim all the low branches off. So fire risk really drops incredibly low after about year three or four. But ultimately, it's about professional management. We have a company called Heyo Forrestal that we hired 25 years ago, 26 years ago, actually, to help us find the land, do the analysis of the land, make sure it was good for teak. And when you hire professionals, you get professional results. I mean, we stayed with this company for 26 years now, and the guy that we met early on, a little forestry engineer, is now General Manager and partner in the business. So we've watched that business grow up alongside ours at the same time. Those relationships, you know, Dolly Parton and Kenny Rogers have a song you can't make old friends. So here we are with Jacobo and some of the Luis that we've worked with for, you know, 26 years, and the relationships matter, especially in that part of the world, but professionalism and professional management is the key, and you have that alongside the relationships. Both are important.   Keith Weinhold  36:20   yes. So we're talking about how the property manager is such an important part of your team, and you think about your single family homes or your apartment buildings. And Mike here is talking about the importance of professional management, because teak trees need a little management and pruning, and sometimes there are thinnings which can give you some income so that you don't have to wait 25 years. Correct another way in which you might not have to wait 25 years for the full harvest cycle is at times you can buy trees that are, say, already seven years old, so you can only be waiting 18 years, or that are teens, so you might only be waiting 10 years, or some things about that, those are some of the options. But Mike, before I ask you if you have any last word, if you want to learn more about this, get some information, learn more about it, and learn how to connect with Mike's team. He is one of our GRE marketplace providers, and he's the owner of that company. You can do that at gre marketplace.com/teak, any last thing someone should know about teak before they consider investing? Mike?    Mike Cobb  37:16   Yeah, well, two things you mentioned the tour. So we do run discovery tours. We have one coming up in January, end of January, two days, we go out to the plantation, the teenage teat plantation, by the way, oak, which is eight or nine more years to harvest. Then we're going to the sawmill, because all of our logs go through a sawmill to convert to lumber, which enhances the return to the investor.    Keith Weinhold  37:36   Do the teens sleep until noon? Or can we visit them   Mike Cobb  37:38   and then they're on their phones all day If we're gonna go visit them. We'll wake them up and, like, get on their phones. But here's, here's the last parting word. I think it's scary for a lot of people. It is scary. You're going overseas, you're outside of, you know, residential you're going into a new industry. You're going to a new country. The reason this works for so many people, over 1000 now, have done this, is it's such a small bite, $7,000 and if that's maybe one or 2% of your portfolio, what I hate to say, put it on the table and roll the dice, but you'll be happy you did. I'm happy I did. It's a small bite, but that international diversification is so important. And then you put it in something that's absolutely not correlated to the market. It's not correlated to us real estate. I mean, in 2008 to 2012 when real estate was dying in the US, our trees just kept growing. So non correlated, non US, right? And non residential. I think that's the reason you want to take a little tiny piece of your portfolio and put it overseas in something like teak.    Keith Weinhold  38:42   We know over the long term that it has grown in value 5.5% a year, but at the same time, it grows in volume, in the amount of board fees you're getting a crease, an increase in both unit value and volume. It's really growing a couple ways. At the same time, you've had over 1000 different individual investors invest in the teak now, several dozen, maybe even more than 100 of those have been you the get rich education follower. So again, thanks for joining me, Mike. If you want to learn more, start at gre marketplace.com/teak. I'm Keith Weinhold. I'll see you next time.    Yeah, good information from Mike there again for GRE followers, that 6880 price deadline is Monday, June 9, and then it goes to 8680, that is a 26% price increase, and this is because land and planting costs have skyrocketed. And you know, I have long wondered about when they were going to change that same lower price that they've had for a lot of years. The provider recently added a sawmill to convert logs to lumber, and that enhances investment returns. So when you inquire for more info, you can ask about that, and that could very well put them above the 94k per part. Possible projected payout. Teak, hardwood, it just has some amazing physical properties. It's not your run of the mill. Backyard. Maple, it is a real asset. Think of it as a forest that fights back against Fiat and the provider reputation and continuity are almost impeccable. They've even had the same forestry manager, yeah, sort of like a property manager for trees, because trees take things like prunings and thinnings, the same manager for all 26 years of the teak operation. In the future, I might join one of their teak investor tours in Panama, and if I do, I'll be sure to let you know so that we can meet up that might even be a GRE exclusive tour. What you really need to know now is that, again, the lower price is good until Monday, June 9, to get started or simply learn more, visit gre marketplace.com/teak, that's t, e, a, k, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Unknown Speaker  41:10   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  41:34   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter. You also get my one hour fast real estate video. Of course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 66866.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com  

Shoot us a Text.Episode #1050: A record number of U.S. consumers are skipping auto loans over rejection fears, EV history unfolded as BYD overtook Tesla in Europe and Google's I/O 2025 keynote was a full-court press on AI innovation.Show Notes with links:Consumer confidence in securing an auto loan is slipping fast. A recent survey by the New York Fed shows a record number of people aren't even applying—because they assume they'll be turned down. It's a new high in pessimism.34% of potential borrowers didn't apply for an auto loan in February due to fear of rejection—the highest since tracking began in 2014.Loan rejection rates hit 14%, a major jump from just 1.5% a year ago.Only 9.9% of consumers expect to apply for a loan in the next year, down from October's 11%.Just 63% believe they could handle a $2,000 emergency expense—also a record low.“The SCE Credit Access Survey points to an expected future tightening in credit conditions,” said the New York Fed.China's BYD outsells Tesla in Europe for first time, report says | ReutersIn a milestone moment for the European EV market, Chinese automaker BYD has outsold Tesla for the first time.BYD logged 7,231 BEV registrations in Europe in April, topping Tesla's 7,165—marking its first lead ever in the region.The Chinese brand only expanded beyond Norway and the Netherlands in late 2022 but is now gaining fast.Tesla faces pressure from a 13% Q1 sales dip, factory retools for the Model Y, and delayed rollouts of lower-cost trims.Chinese-made EV registrations jumped 59% year-over-year in April despite EU tariffs.“This is a watershed moment for Europe's car market,” said Felipe Munoz of market research firm JATO Analytics.Google's I/O 2025 keynote was packed with AI firepower. From shopping with chatbots to making movies with prompts, Google is putting generative AI front and center. Here's a quick recap of the announcements:Gemini's “AI Mode” is rolling out to all U.S. users, blending search, shopping, and smart summarization.Project Starline evolves into “Google Beam,” bringing 3D video chat to HP-branded hardware.New AI filmmaking app “Flow” uses Imagen, Veo, and Gemini to create 8-second video clips from prompts.Project Aura introduces Android XR smart glasses co-developed with Xreal and eyewear brands like Warby Parker.“We are shipping faster than ever,” said Google CEO Sundar Pichai, highlighting the company's accelerated pace in AI development.Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/

What would you do if you were in Jerome Powell's seat today? With inflation remaining sticky and global market dynamics shifting fast, investors are searching for clarity. In this episode, Jeannette Friedrich sits down with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, a former senior associate at the New York Fed and macro strategist at Macro Hive, to dissect monetary policy, inflation risks, and the changing nature of global investment flows. This episode offers a deep dive into how long-term economic forces are reshaping capital markets and what investors can do to adapt. Key Takeaways - Why the Fed's current stance on interest rates is aimed at long-term price stability, even at the risk of recession - How inflation expectations, tariffs, and geopolitical policies are interlinked - The case for further rate hikes and what would trigger that scenario - Why US exceptionalism may be fading and how this affects global portfolio allocations - Insights on dollar weakness, gold's rising role in reserves, and a shift toward multi-currency systems - How real estate, especially with shorter leases, can offer a hedge in high-rate, high-inflation environments - The growing importance of getting compensated for illiquidity risk in private investments - Why building an investment framework based on your own constraints is more critical than ever - Macro perspectives on China, trade wars, and the erosion of trust in global institutions - Practical life advice on relationships, frameworks, and building an extraordinary life This episode is especially relevant for investors looking to stay grounded during turbulent times and for those rethinking portfolio strategy in an increasingly multipolar world. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:26 Meet Dominique Dwor-Frecaut 02:11 Inflation and the Fed's Role 08:41 Investment Strategies in a Volatile Market 16:19 Global Economic Trends and the Dollar's Future 25:57 Lightning Round and Final Thoughts Credits Producer: Blue Lake Capital Strategist: Syed Mahmood Editor: Emma Walker Opening music: Pomplamoose *

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the gears of the global economy are grinding disconcertingly as the unnecessary trade war is prosecuted with little strategy and no apparent viable end game.But first up today, the latest full dairy auction brought an overall rise of +1.6% in USD. However, the fall and fall of the USD has completely undermined this result, with prices in NZD falling -2.1%. In USD all categories except SMP rose, and demand was strong from "North Asia" (ie China). Milk fats were in demand, while global milk supply is waning in the major producers, underpinning the demand. Pity about the currency effect.Inflation is showing up in the retail trade in the US, with the weekly Redbook index up +6.6% from the same week a year ago. There is no way that reflects a volume riseBusiness activity continued to fall in March in the New York Fed's factory survey in the New York state. New order levels extended their decline/In Canada, their CPI inflation rate eased lower to 2.3% in March. That is after the eight-month high of 2.6% in February. The March result was tamer than expected (2.6%) and below forecasts by the central bank of 2.5%. It comes after some GST and other tax changes earlier have now been flushed through their data. The Bank of Canada next meets to review its official policy rate later today, but it will be the economic impact of their unfriendly neighbour that will dominate policy, rather than current inflation. They will likely hold off making rate changes for now, keeping the 2.75% policy rate. That is a change from the earlier expected cut.Canadian housing starts came in weak in March, down more than -11% from the same month a year ago.India CPI inflation rate fell in March to 3.3%, its lowest since 2019. Food price inflation fell to 2.7%. Both were much lower than expected and well below the central bank's policy rate mid point of 4%.Indian exports rose sharply in March from February in the normal seasonal pattern. Their imports rose even more so their trade deficit grew from the prior month, although only back to its usual level.In China, they are cancelling their orders for Boeing aircraft, a blow to the US aircraft industry.In February, EU industrial production rose, a surprise gain and the best monthly gain in two years.But that wasn't an indicator for economic sentiment. The latest ZEW survey reveals a sharp deterioration as they watched the US turn away from friend to foe, making them feel boxed in between the US and Russia. It was a shift reminiscent of the uncertainty during the pandemic.And it seems that trade talks between the US and the EU are making "litte" (ir no) progress.In Australia, the latest release of the RBA minutes was a dull affair, giving little guidance on how they are going to deal with the trade and inflation challenges. It's all 'wait-and-see' and 'respond-to-data' for them. But they do claim to be in a good position to be able to act decisively if it is needed. A cut on May 20 is still possible however.OPEC's latest monthly review lowered its demand outlook, although some observers thought the smallness of the cutback was brave in the circumstances.And we should also note that there are now three elections due soon. Canada goes to the polls on April 28. Australia votes on May 3. And now a snap election has also been called in Singapore, also for May 3. Being Singapore, that unsurprisingly leaves very little time for campaigning. All these elections will have the Trump shadow hanging over them, and it very much helps campaigning to present an anti-Trump stance. Trump has resurrected the fortunes of the centre-left candidates, enough to cancel the anti-incumbent mood.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, down another -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3229/oz, and up +US$16 from yesterday.Oil prices have firmed marginally, up +50 USc from yesterday to be now at US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.1 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday at this time and the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD extends. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we up +30 bps from yesterday at just on 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 67.6 and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US84,616 and holding again, up a mere +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Fear of unemployment jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44% in March, according to a New York Fed survey. That's the highest it's been since April 2020. Expect the commercial real estate market to feel that same vibe. Companies concerned about a tariff-induced recession may make cuts or stick with Zoom instead of leasing new office space, experts told us. Also: Uncertainty is driving up junk bond yields, foreign investors may be pulling back on U.S. markets, and we talk to a small-business executive in “survival mode” over tariffs. 

Fear of unemployment jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44% in March, according to a New York Fed survey. That's the highest it's been since April 2020. Expect the commercial real estate market to feel that same vibe. Companies concerned about a tariff-induced recession may make cuts or stick with Zoom instead of leasing new office space, experts told us. Also: Uncertainty is driving up junk bond yields, foreign investors may be pulling back on U.S. markets, and we talk to a small-business executive in “survival mode” over tariffs. 

US equities closed higher in Monday trading, improving through the afternoon after seeing some midday softness. It was a relatively quiet session compared to recent days with stocks trading in a fairly wide range but VIX is back down to 31 after touching 60 last week. In macro news, the New York Fed's March Survey of Consumer Expectations noted that the year-ahead inflation expectations increased 0.5%, but were flat at the 3Y horizon and declined at the 5Y.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the week started with a strong risk-on mood and equities rose on Monday in Asia, and especially in Europe. Wall Street opened with the same vibe, but lost momentum in the middle sessions, although it is returning in the later session. It's volatile.But first in main street US, the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey mirrored the other recent sentiment surveys, noting a defensive turn in the mood. Consumers' year-ahead expectations about their households' financial situations deteriorated in March, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now rising to 30%, the highest level since October 2023. Those surveyed said they see higher inflation in a year, up to 3.6% from 3.0% in the February survey. The expectations for earnings growth fell, and for joblessness to rise. Of course, this one was taken before the heavy tariff policies hit in early April. The April update will be available on May 9 (NZT).In Washington, the Trump administration is moving swiftly to end enforcement of white collar crime, dismissing federal prosecutors involved in enforcing foreign bribery cases, crypto crime, and money laundering crime. Its open season for white collar criminals. Washington is also apparently open for far-right Russians.It is so risky to visit the US, EU diplomats are now being issued with burner phones for their visits, just like they do when visiting China or Russia.On the tariff front, exemptions are coming for car parts, new tariffs for pharmaceuticals. The common thread is bolstering profits for campaign supporters. Need a favour? Go to Washington with money for Trump.In Canada, their central bank is about to review its monetary policy settings. It was on a rate cutting track, but is now more likely to leave its policy rate unchanged given the inflationary threats from the trade war.In China, their exports surged by +12.4% in March to US$314 bln, far above market forecasts of +4.4% rose and accelerating sharply from a +2.3% rise in the January–February period. It marked the fastest increase in overseas sales since last October, driven by the urgent frontloading before the American tariffs took effect. Since November when talk of tariffs first became a credible risk, the rise of Chinese exports has been exceptional. Meanwhile, March imports fell -4.3%. As a consequence, China's merchandise trade surplus has hit record levels in 2025.We exported +13% more to them in Q1-2025 from a year ago, and imported -5% less. Australia exported -29% less, and imported -5% less, for comparison.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.37%, down -13 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3213/oz, and down -US$23 from yesterday.Oil prices have dipped -50 USc from yesterday to be now at US$61/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.8 USc, up +½c from yesterday at this time and the highest since mid-December. The fall of the USD extends. Against the Aussie we are up another +20 bps at 93 AUc. Against the euro we up +60 bps from yesterday at just on 51.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 67.3 and up +40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,546 and holding, and down a mere -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Federal Reserve is meeting to review its monetary policy settings and uncertainty levels are high and rising, both on the growth and inflation fronts.But first, as we noted yesterday, China's State Council has launched 'a special action plan' to boost domestic consumption, including increasing residents' income and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme. The plan came a week after the Premier's work report to the National People's Congress, which focused on boosting household spending to cushion the impact of weak external demand.This had a notable impact on many, mainly Asian, financial markets.Meanwhile, China released an important set of recent data overnight. Their new home prices in 70 cities dropped by -4.8% year-on-year in February, easing from a -5.0% decline in January. This marked the 20th consecutive month of decreases but represented the softest pace since last June. For second hand home prices, they are down -7.5% year-on-year.China's retail sales were up +4.0% in the January/February period, a better rise than for any month, other than for October.China's industrial production was said to be up a strong +5.9% in the same period. However that doesn't quite square with their electricity production data in the same period which was -1.3% lower.Singapore's exports recovered in February after the disappointing January data. There were up +7.6% after falling -2.1% in January. However, that bounce back was weaker than analysts had expected (+8.7%).Indian exports were unremarkable in February, coming in just under US$37 bln and still low for an economy of this size, certainly one that is 'booming'. In India, it is all about internal demand. For reference, India's exports were US$41.4 bln in February 2024, so a shrinkage of -11% on that basis. They may be looking for new markets to shore up this weak performance.Legendary investor Warren Buffett once said his strategy is to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Right now, market fears are high, in fact 'extreme'. So what is he doing? He is raising his stakes in Japanese trading houses.US retail sales in February were a disappointment. They fell -0.2% from January when a rise was anticipated and are now -0.9% lower than year ago levels. On an inflation-adjusted basis it will be worse than that. January data was soft too, and revised lower. Seven of the report's 13 categories recorded declines, including car sales on a year-on-year basis. This data is consistent with earlier data indicating defensive consumer attitudes.A 'fear' retreat by American consumers will likely have more of a global impact on trade and consumption than tariffs by themselves.That same hesitancy also shows up in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index which fell in March to its lowest level in seven months, and below what was expected. Current sales conditions fell sharply, sales expectations in the next six months held steady, while traffic of prospective buyers dropped sharply too. And not helping the builders is cost uncertainty.It is even tougher in the latest update of the Empire State factory survey by the New York Fed. This is often a volatile survey, but the March results record the largest pullback since May 2023. New order intake levels were particularly weak. Capital spending was very weak too. The New York Fed called the retreat "significant".But at least national business inventories in relation to sales activity are still within range, even if they did rise in February.In Canada, housing starts fell -4% in February to an annual rate of 229,030 units, down from a revised 239,322 units in January and below market expectations of 250,000.Less trade has seen the OECD trim its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for economic expansion. Annual GDP growth in the United States is projected to slow from its +2.8% 2024 pace, to be +2.2% in 2025 and +1.6% in 2026. China's growth rates are slowing too. But they do expect improvements in Australia. (See page 5.) They see inflation rising to above policy target levels. New Zealand gets no mention in this update.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just on US$2994/oz and up another net +US$9 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$67.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just on US$71/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.2 USc and up +70 bps from this time yesterday. That is its highest level since December 10, 2024. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.2 AUc and a similar three-month high. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 67.3, and up +50 bps to a two month high.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,439 and down just -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says tariffs being bad for growth and inflation puts the Federal Reserve in a bind, with the central bank on hold waiting for more information. Dudley spoke with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we start the week with current data that is almost certainly not indicative of what's to come. The policy landscape is in ferment.First in the week ahead however, locally it will be all about migration, retail sales, and a look a second look at 2025 inflation levels. In Australia their data releases will be about business and consumer sentiment, and industrial production.Elsewhere, India will release a CPI update. Canada's central bank will review its policy rate on Thursday (NZT) and is expected to cut it by -25 bps to 2.75%.In the US, upcoming updates will be for CPI and PPI, the Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and January JOLTS job data.But first up today, weekend data releases from China confirmed they have slipped into a deflationary funk. Consumer prices fell -0.7% in February from a year ago (-0.5% was expected), and producer prices were down -2.2% (-2.1% was expected).China's consumer price decline was their first consumer deflation since January 2024, amid fading seasonal demand following the Spring Festival in late January. Food prices fell the most in 13 months, down -3.3%, dragged by a steep decrease in cost of fresh vegetables and a sharp slowdown in pork prices. Beef prices are down -13.3% from a year ago, lamb prices by -6.6%. Milk prices are down -1.4% on the same basis.China's producer prices are falling faster than consumer prices, but not really at an accelerating rate.Earlier in the weekend, China said its exports rose +2.3% in February, but that was notably less than the +5% rise expected. China's imports fell -8.4% when a +1% rise was expected. That means their merchandise trade balance rose to +US$170 bln, well above the January +US$142 bln and spiked by reactions to US trade and tariff policies. Their data shows a -US$1.1 bln February deficit in their trade with New Zealand. With Australia it was a -US$8.4 bln deficit.We may also get China new yuan loan data at the end of this week, although it is coming in a bit later, and weaker, these past few months.Despite all the US, China and global trade woes, the New York Fed's tracking of global supply chain pressures is reporting a pretty sanguine situation. Of course, that will undoubtedly change going forward.In the US, the February non-farm payrolls report showed the US economy added +151,000 jobs in February, slightly below the +160,000 expected. The January data was downwardly revised to +125,000 from the original +143,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.1%. We should note that virtually none of the DOGE cuts are reflected in this data. Their participation rate fell.The actual unadjusted rise in February from January was +891,000 in this payroll survey data, but that was less than seasonal factors would have usually delivered and less than the +1,065,000 gain in the same period in 2024. Including the unincorporated self-employed, the total number of employed people was 162.5 mln, and that was less than in January. The shift to company payrolls is still happening but slower, and the total number of people actually employed actually dropped. Average weekly earnings were up +3.4% from a year ago and that was their least in more than a year. (Over the past 12 months, that rise has averaged +3.7%, so a notable tailing off in February.)The US Fed boss Powell talked about the outlook for the US economy over the weekend, and commented that they see no reason to be cutting their policy rates any time soon.The US Fed's tightening process continues with their balance sheet now down to US$6.75 tln, down by -US$782 bln in a year and eating into its pandemic surge now. Pre-pandemic, it was a balance sheet equivalent to 19.0% of US GDP. It peaked at 35.4% in April 2022. Now it is back to 22.5% of GDP. So normalisation looms. (For reference the RBNZ balance sheet is also currently at 22.5% of our GDP.)In Canada, their February labour force data wasn't that flash. Full-time employment fell -20,000 while part-time employment rose +21,000. But their average hourly wages rose +4.0%. Their participation rate fell too. No-one expects this labour force data to improve while the tariff war hostilities build in 2025.The US president has threatened Canada again, this time with 'reciprocal' tariffs on dairy and timber. If he goes ahead, it will almost certainly backfire on Americans. Canada is already the US dairy industry's second largest export market and that market will almost certainly reject US goods. And Canadian timber is well-embedded into US house building. Trump wants US national forests harvested to replace Canadian supplies but that will take time to build volumes, and come at higher prices.In Australia, plans to call an April federal election have been shelved, partly because of the expected physical and financial clean up after tropical cyclone Alfred. There are now still more than ¼ mln people without electricity this morning, and the storm is lingering longer than expected and the flooding heavier. The new expected election date will be sometime in May. There will be a new Budget update there in three weeks, on Tuesday, March 25, 2025.In Western Australia, their incumbent Labor government won with a thumping majority, way better than anticipated.Today the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.30%, down -2 bps from Saturday at this time. Here is an update of Wall Street earnings for Q4-2024. It is pretty positive.The price of gold will start today at just over US$2911/oz and up +US$3 from Saturday.Oil prices are still just on US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just under US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.1 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie however we are down -10 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.6, and up +20 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price started today at US$82,620 and down a net -5.6% from this time Saturday. That means it is given up all its gains after the US election in November. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

On the latest episode of the ABA Banking Journal Podcast — presented by R&T Deposit Solutions — ABA's Jeff Huther and Sharon Whitaker rebut a false narrative about how banks are managing commercial real estate credit risk. Expanding on a rebuttal to a New York Fed paper, they explore why measures of distress and undercapitalization used by the New York Fed and some in the media are inconsistent with common definitions and ignore bank-borrower relationships, accounting principles and valuation techniques. “We're now almost three years past the last shock to the sector, and people have had a lot of time to kind of think through how to deal with this and what the implications are for credit risk,” says Huther. “We're in a situation where ” extending and pretending” is just not the right way to describe the condition and market.” Read the ABA DataBank post.

US equities were higher in Monday trading as stocks ended just off best levels. There wasn't much specific behind today's upside as the market reversed Friday's declines. In macro news, the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations reported January year-ahead and three-year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.0% from the prior month.

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about how Trump 2.0 will impact macro, why tariffs matter, labour supply problems, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

The stock market is at a crossroads. After the strongest back-to-back years for the S&P 500 since the late 1990s, investors are wondering what to expect in 2025. Will higher productivity, stronger earnings, and D.C. deregulation win out and propel equities higher? Or will higher-for-longer interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and “sticky” inflation hamstring markets? To cut through the fog and get some answers, I spoke with Eric Wallerstein, Chief Markets Strategist at Yardeni Research, for this week's MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast.Eric starts by sharing his background, which included stints at the New York Fed's repo desk and the Wall Street Journal prior to his joining Yardeni Research. We then pivot to a macro-focused discussion, one covering the latest inflation figures, the Federal Reserve's recent (and potential future) policy moves, and the likely impact of Trump Administration policy on hiring, investment, and capex spending. Next, Eric lays out what could go RIGHT for markets...and what could go WRONG for them...in the new year. But he emphasizes the positives, including what to expect with corporate earnings and GDP growth – and the one “great thing” that the economy has going for it.We then move on to the bond market's recent convulsions, a contrarian call he recently made, and the reasons why the U.S. looks poised to outperform other regions. Then we talk about the five market sectors he likes, and his one favorite group – one that has “a lot of runway” for potential gains. Finally, we discuss what he'll cover at the MoneyShow Masters Symposium Dallas, scheduled for April 4-6 at the Hilton DFW Lakes. Click here to register: https://www.mmsdallas.com/?scode=061246

US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading as stocks ended near best levels. However, breadth was positive today, though offset by tech weakness, which plays into the narrative around rotation into value and cyclicals. A light day of data included the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations unchanged at 3%.

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers how Trump 2.0 is different from Trump 1.0, key Trump policies to watch, what consensus is getting wrong on US growth, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Ellen Correia Golay is an advisor in the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, focusing on the US Treasury market. She also helped lead an interagency working group report and a recent conference on the Treasury market. Ellen joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these and other Treasury-related developments. Ellen and David also discuss her career journey and role at the New York Fed, the current and future challenges in the Treasury Market, necessary areas for reform, and more.   DISCLAIMER: Ellen Correia Golay's views are her own, and they do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference.   Ellen's LinkedIn profile   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Enhancing the Resilience of the U.S. Treasury Market: 2024 Staff Progress Report* by the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance (IAWG)   *The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference* — An event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:03:09) – Ellen's Career Journey and Role at the New York Fed   (00:17:13) – Breaking Down the Treasury Market   (00:20:38) – Current and Future Challenges in the Treasury Market   (00:29:54) – How Would Central Clearing Impact the Fed and the Treasury Market?   (00:31:47) – Explaining the Treasury Department Buyback Program   (00:36:12) – Commencement of Data Dissemination on Individual Nominal Coupon Treasury Transactions   (00:38:29) – Requiring the Reporting of Non-Centrally Cleared Bilateral Repos   (00:41:26) – The 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference   (00:43:50) – Future Areas for Reform in the Treasury Market   (00:46:43) – Outro

In this episode, Nik Bhatia sits down with Eric Wallerstein of Yardeni Research to dissect the forces driving today's financial markets. They explore how rising interest rates and evolving monetary policy are reshaping recession expectations and the resilience of the corporate bond market, dive into the Fed's cautious balance sheet management, the risks of private credit, and the impact of bond volatility on equity returns. The discussion highlights the effects of a strong dollar, the Treasury's strategy to manage the yield curve, and the interplay between the Fed and Treasury in shaping future policy. Eric draws from his experience at the New York Fed to analyze how these factors influence stock market profit margins, the housing market, and the global economic outlook, offering key insights into the shifting dynamics of financial markets. The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don't pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today. Visit https://thebitcoinlayer.com/unchained and use code TBL for $100 off when you create an account. Try Stamp Seed, a DIY kit that enables you to hammer your seed words into a durable plate of titanium using professional stamping tools. Take 15% off with code TBL. Get your Stamp Seed today! https://www.stampseed.com/shop/titanium-seed-phrase-storage-kits.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Subscribe to TBL's research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Block Height 870410 Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball #TheBitcoinLayer #NikBhatia #FinancialMarkets #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #RecessionOutlook #CorporateBonds #BondMarket #StrongDollar #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #TreasuryStrategy #BondVolatility #EquityReturns #EconomicInsights #HousingMarket #GlobalEconomy #PrivateCredit #MarketResilience #StockMarketTrends #EconomicShifts #FinancialAnalysis #FedAndTreasury #MarketDynamics #ProfitMargins #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentStrategies #Bloomberg #Analysis #Charts #Tradingview #InvestmentStrategy #MarketWatch #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #IndexFunds #FinancialMarkets #MarketWatch #FreeMarket #FreeMarkets #Markets #USTreasury #TreasuryBills #BalanceSheet #FED #Debt #Inflation #Statistic #Rates #Interest #Asset #Bitcoin #Dollar #Sats #BTC #Gold #Market #Trading #Currency #Crypto #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Education #Blockchain #Mining #BitcoinMining #macro The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

Trump picks Rep. Matt Gaetz as attorney general. Credit card debt hits record $1.17 trillion, New York Fed research shows. Experts testify at UFO congressional hearing. John Krasinski named People's Sexiest Man Alive. A new HBO documentary about Yacht Rock is on the way. Election ‘Nostradamus' blames incorrect prediction on Elon Musk and ‘explosion' of disinformation. Trump and Biden call for smooth transition during historic meeting. The Onion purchases InfoWars. 

For lenders that are taking the "extend-and-pretend" approach, placing less emphasis on valuation declines, and waiting for lower rates, the risks have not abated, and the New York Fed has taken notice in a new report. Sources discussed in this episode: Federal Reserve Bank of New York: “Extend and Pretend in the U.S. CRE Market” - https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr1130.pdf The Conference Board: “US Consumer Confidence” - https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies: “The Role of the Recent Immigrant Surge in Housing Costs” - https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/role-recent-immigrant-surge-housing-costs John Burns Research and Consulting: “Slowing immigration set to give a smaller boost to housing” - https://jbrec.com/insights/immigration-slowdown-in-2025-expected-to-decrease-rental-demand/ Institutional Property Advisors: “Near-Record Product Absorption Maintained Through Third Quarter” - https://www.institutionalpropertyadvisors.com/research/special-report/2024/10/special-report-october-multifamily-market-intelligence CoreLogic: “National Rent Growth Remains Slow and Steady in August” - https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-national-rent-growth-remains-slow-and-steady-in-august/ Apartment List: “National Rent Report, October 2024” - https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data For the latest multifamily news from across the internet, visit the Gray Report website: ⁠https://www.grayreport.com/⁠ Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: ⁠https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter⁠ DISCLAIMERS: This podcast does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This podcast is not an offer to invest. Any offering would be made through a private placement memorandum and would be limited to accredited investors.

There's a huge problem impacting our economy and we need to talk about it – Americans are absolutely drowning in credit card debt. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Americans' total credit card balances increased by $50 billion, reaching a total of $1.129 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In fact, consumer debt is at its highest balance since the New York Fed began tracking data in the 1990s. On today's show, we're going to dive in what's going on with the state of credit card debt in the US. We're going to talk about delinquencies, interest rates, and much more. If you want to know more about consumer debt and how it's impacting the daily lives of Americans, tune in to this episode!

Forensic accounting professor and fraud detective Kelly Richmond Pope describes why and how fraud occurs. In this episode she highlights the importance of clear incentives and discusses her interactive online games designed to help users understand the drivers of fraud and whistleblowing.  To learn more about the New York Fed's Governance and Culture Reform Initiative, visit the website for additional resources related to the study of conduct and culture in the financial services industry.

Joe McGrath and Ciaran Walker, co-authors of the New Accountability in Financial Services, offer recommendations for promoting accountability through professionalization and the adoption of shared industry norms. In this episode they discuss the role of shared professional identities, moral anchors, and other mechanisms organizations can use to foster individual and group-based accountability.  To learn more about the New York Fed's Governance and Culture Reform Initiative, visit the website for additional resources related to the study of conduct and culture in the financial services industry.

Former prosecutor for the Eastern District of New York Evan Norris discusses the FIFA corruption scandal and why his past cases carry lessons for the financial services industry. In this episode he discusses building cultures of strong compliance, and how misconduct can be harnessed as an opportunity for broad-based learning and meaningful improvement.   To learn more about the New York Fed's Governance and Culture Reform Initiative, visit the website for additional resources related to the study of conduct and culture in the financial services industry.

In this episode, series host Toni Dechario is joined by her Culture initiative colleague Tom Noone. Together, they reflect on how approaches to culture and governance in financial services have shifted over the last decade and highlight key moments from the 2024 annual New York Fed culture conference.  To learn more about the New York Fed's Governance and Culture Reform Initiative, visit the website for additional resources related to the study of conduct and culture in the financial services industry.

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading in a quiet session after stocks caught a big bounce last week. It was a largely uneventful session as the market waits for the Fed's rate-cut decision on Wednesday. In macro news, the New York Fed's Empire manufacturing survey for September unexpectedly flipped positive for first time since November 2023.

Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and Bloomberg Economics senior advisor, expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. He spoke with Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick and Alix Steel. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull&Bear, Drew and Tim discuss new data on consumer spending and inflation, housing developments, JPMorgan recession odds, the yen carry trade, the New York Fed inflation outlook, and Dr. Col Jeff McCausland's insights on geopolitical risks. WealthVest – based in Bozeman, MT– is a financial services marketing and distribution firm specializing in fixed and fixed index annuities from many high-quality insurance companies. WealthVest provides the tools, resources, practice management support, and products that financial professionals need to provide their clients a predictable retirement that has their best interest in mind.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Tim PierottiAlbum Artwork: Sam YarboroughShow Editing and Production: Tavin DavisDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. Investment and investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Former President Donald Trump says he wants a more direct role in how the Federal Reserve sets interest rates and suggested he could break with traditional policies when it comes to the Fed's independence. Geoff Bennett discussed what Trump could do if elected and the reverberations with Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI and former executive vice president at the New York Fed. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

Former President Donald Trump says he wants a more direct role in how the Federal Reserve sets interest rates and suggested he could break with traditional policies when it comes to the Fed's independence. Geoff Bennett discussed what Trump could do if elected and the reverberations with Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI and former executive vice president at the New York Fed. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

MRKT Matrix - Monday, August 12th Stocks wobble as traders struggle to build on last week's comeback (CNBC) Bear market is coming in 2025, warns David Roche, but the Fed will step in before it turns ‘draconian' (CNBC) Fed's Bowman Sees Upside Inflation Risk, Signals Caution on Cuts (Bloomberg) Three-year inflation outlook hits record low in New York Fed consumer survey (CNBC) 5 Big Takeaways From This Earnings Season (WSJ) Market Is Punishing Negative EPS Surprises More Than Average for Q2 (FactSet) Apartments, hockey rinks and Amazon warehouses: Macy's closures will set off a wave of change at shopping malls (CNBC) Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find (NY Times) U.S. crude oil rallies more than 3%, tops $79 as Pentagon sends more forces to Middle East (CNBC) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

Are you worried about a potential housing market crash? In this episode of the Creating Wealth Simplified podcast, Chris Seveney dives into a recent New York Fed Report to uncover what the data tells us. He explains why credit card debt is on the rise, even though overall delinquency rates are low, and what it means for the housing market in the future. We'll also uncover when mortgage defaults might surge, critical intel for real estate investors. Plus, get ready to explore the unexpected rise in bankruptcies compared to foreclosures - what does this mean for the future? Chris also reveals why they believe a wave of opportunities could be on the horizon for note investors. Join Chris Seveney today because there is so much to unwrap in this episode that you don't want to miss!Love the show? Subscribe, rate, review, and share! https://7einvestments.com/podcast/

US equities ended mostly higher Monday, though off best levels. It was a fairly quiet session with the market in waiting mode ahead of this week's inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season. New York Fed one- and five-year inflation expectations for June declined month over month with consumers seeing slower expected price gains for rent and food.

Not sure about you but getting ourselves in gear today took some time. Many of you may have enjoyed a long holiday weekend and getting back to business might have been rough. We talked to several business leaders who wished for an extra day off...just to "get ourselves into the mix". Welcome to the Business News Headlines for Monday the 8th day of July...and if you want to reach out to us on social media you can hook up with us all day on Twitter or "X" @IOB_NewsHour and on Instagram. Facebook? Sure were there too.  Here's what we've got for you today: Employers/Employees and the loneliness factor; And some suggestions to combat it; Boeing to pay another hefty fine and why; Recreational pot in North Carolina even though illegal; The New York Fed says inflation is easing; Theater chains did well over the weekend; The Wall Street Report Getting employees "un-stuck" and why that matters. Thanks for being here! The award winning Insight on Business the News Hour with Michael Libbie is the only weekday business news podcast in the Midwest. The national, regional and some local business news along with long-form business interviews can be heard Monday - Friday. You can subscribe on  PlayerFM, Podbean, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or TuneIn Radio. And you can catch The Business News Hour Week in Review each Sunday Noon Central on News/Talk 1540 KXEL. The Business News Hour is a production of Insight Advertising, Marketing & Communications. You can follow us on Twitter @IoB_NewsHour...and on Threads @Insight_On_Business.

In this episode, we explore the latest housing market forecasts from Zillow and Redfin, with Zillow's forecast being 20% worse than Redfin's. We also discuss Neel Kashkari's comments on potential rate cuts and their implications for the housing market. Additionally, I share insights from Russell Brunson's thought-provoking question about personal and professional success over the next three years. We touch on key economic indicators and highlight upcoming events in the One Rental at a Time community. [00:00:00] - Introduction and East Coast Experience Sharing my experience on the East Coast and the early start to the day. [00:00:20] - Fed's Potential Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook Neel Kashkari's comments on possible rate cuts in December and the importance of upcoming unemployment claims data. [00:02:00] - Zillow vs. Redfin Housing Forecasts Analyzing Zillow's forecast, which predicts a 1.2% decline in home prices, 20% worse than Redfin's 1% decline prediction. [00:04:26] - Impact of Mortgage Rates and Fed Policy Discussing the potential effects of mortgage rate changes and Fed policies on the housing market. [00:05:14] - Thought-Provoking Quote from Russell Brunson Reflecting on Russell Brunson's question about what needs to happen personally and professionally in three years to feel happy with your progress. [00:07:02] - Historical Home Return Analysis Reviewing Reggie Club's analysis on the average five-year return on US homes since 1975 and the amplified returns with leverage. [00:08:05] - Housing as a Key Election Issue Considering the impact of housing affordability on the upcoming elections and whether millennials and Gen Z will turn out to vote. [00:09:32] - Empire State Manufacturing Survey Examining the latest data from the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey and its implications for the economy. [00:10:28] - Community Updates: Sessions with Dion and Lumberjack Landlord Announcing upcoming sessions with Dion and the Lumberjack Landlord in the One Rental at a Time school community. [00:11:56] - Call for Accountability Group Leaders Encouraging school members to start accountability groups and network within the community. One Rental at a Time Community - Join the community for support, networking, and access to expert sessions. Contact Information for Dion and Lumberjack Landlord - Available within the One Rental at a Time school community. If you enjoyed this episode, please rate, follow, share, and review the podcast. Your support helps us bring more insightful content to you every week. Reflect on what you need to achieve personally and professionally in the next three years and take action today. Join the One Rental at a Time community to connect with like-minded individuals and stay motivated. Have an amazing day!

The New York Fed's June Empire State Manufacturing Survey is out this morning; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says  predictions the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates until December are “reasonable;” the U.S. surgeon general calls for a warning label on social media; Disney estimates the new “Inside Out 2” film made $155 million.

US equities finished higher in Monday afternoon trading, ending near best levels. The market shook off some early-morning weakness and is now seeing gains across the major indices ahead of a number of high-profile catalysts this week. It's been a light day on the economic calendar, including the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, which showed 1 year inflation expectations tick down 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%.

This month's newsletter is dedicated to the memory of Gerry Corrigan, the sixth president of the New York Fed from 1985 to 1993, known as the Fed's plumber, the go-to guy Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan turned to in a financial crisis. Subscribe to The Bank Treasury Newsletter and Podcast at thebanktreasurynewsletter.com for professional Insights and commentary on bank treasury issues, investment portfolio strategy, and more. Listen on Apple Podcasts,Spotify, and Amazon. Follow us on LinkedIn.Music by Phantom Sun.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The people are seeing the failing economy, they know they are not better off, the people are now reporting that they cannot go on vacation because they do not have the funds. Trump is confirming that he will support Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. The [CB] is now panicking because to many people are on board and the direction is clear. The [DS] have tried everything to remove Trump, it has all failed, the next couple of months are going to be intense. The [DS] wants to put him prison because they believe this will push the people away, the opposite will happen. Trump has built the counterinsurgency, the people will take back the country and trump will restore the Republic, in the end justice will be served.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Poll: Majority Not Taking Summer Vacation, 73% Cite Lack of Cash in Joe Biden's America Many Americans do not plan to enjoy a summer vacation in President Joe Biden's America, a Fox News poll found in May, underscoring the economy as the number one 2024 issue for voters. The Fox News poll found: Of the 55 percent who are not taking a summer vacation, 73 percent do not have enough money to do so. Seventy-two percent said higher prices impact their summer plans. Fifteen percent do not have time and must remain focused on the daily grind. The last time a pollster asked Americans this question, in 2010, of those who were not going on vacation, only 51 percent cited a lack of cash, while 20 percent blamed a lack of time, Fox News reported. Increased gas and food prices are major factors in Americans' budgets, the poll found: As prices escalated, families racked up credit card debt and entered into delinquencies at an increased rate, the New York Fed found on May 14. Fifty-six percent of Americans believe Biden's economy is in a recession, and a majority blame the president, a Harris/Guardian poll found Wednesday: Fifty-five percent say Biden's economy is shrinking Fifty-six percent say the economy is in a recession Fifty-eight percent blame Biden for the sour economy Seventy-two percent sense rising costs from an increased rate of inflation  Source: breitbart.com Recession will strike this year with 21 states flashing red already, top economist says Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist, told Business Insider that unemployment has risen significantly in 21 states. Specifically, three-month average unemployment has increased by at least 0.5 percentage points from its low over the last 12 months in all 21 states. The group, which includes California and Illinois and numbered 19 states a few weeks ago, generates more than 40% of US GDP. Lazar said that when joblessness has spiked across that many states in the past, a protracted downturn has followed almost every time. The state-level indicator is based on the "Sahm Rule." Source: businessinsider.com https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1794464661594624027 https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1794537413907214356   Political/Rights https://twitter.com/Mike_Cassidy_MS/status/1794136784370098574   and the many Christians who have supported us morally and financially over the past several months. When Christians stick together, we can, and we will, win. I'll have more to say in the weeks ahead, in the meantime please use this Memorial Day Weekend to remember and honor those who gave their lives in service of our nation. Thank you. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1794238958030983405

In this episode, Kathy interviews Linda Klingman and Lynn Paschen about money market funds. They discuss the structure and types of money market funds, the history of their popularity, and how they are managed. They also touch on the differences between retail and institutional money market funds, the impact of Fed policy on money market funds, and reforms taking place in the industry. Lynn and Linda also offer their views on the number of rates cuts in 2024 and where long-term Treasury yields are headed.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook on what investors should be watching in next week's economic data and indicators.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.Money market funds are neither insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of an investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.Schwab Asset Management® is the dba name for Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. Schwab Asset Management and Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., Member SIPC, /Schwab are separate but affiliated companies and subsidiaries of The Charles Schwab Corporation.Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) is a macroeconomic concept describing conditions with a very low nominal interest rate, such as those in contemporary Japan and in the United States from December 2008 through December 2015 and again from March 2020 until March 2022 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. ZIRP is considered to be an unconventional monetary policy instrument and can be associated with slow economic growth, deflation and deleverage.Net asset value (NAV) is the value of an entity's assets minus the value of its liabilities, often in relation to open-end, mutual funds, hedge funds, and venture capital funds.The New York Fed conducts repo and reverse repo operations each day as a means to help keep the federal funds rate in the target range set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Operation results include all repo and reverse repo operations conducted, including small value exercises.(0524-467X)

Roberto Perli is the manager of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and a senior leader in the New York Fed's Markets Group. In his role, Roberto is responsible for implementing monetary policy at the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Roberto is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about a recent speech he made titled, *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead.* Specifically, David and Roberto discuss the Fed's recent balance sheet activities, the basics and functionality of the overnight reverse repo facility, the importance of slowing down the Fed's balance sheet runoff, and much more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Roberto's NY Fed profile Roberto's Twitter: @R_Perli   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead* - Remarks by Roberto Perli at the 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:49) – Breaking Down the Role of SOMA Manager   (00:08:43) – Recapping the Fed's Balance Sheet Activities   (00:11:04) – How to Think About Quantitative Tightening   (00:13:19) – Breaking Down the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility   (00:20:42) – Slowing Down the Runoff and the Future of QT   (00:26:48) – How to Determine the Critical Level of Reserves   (00:33:03) – The Structural Demand for Bank Reserves Over Time   (00:38:55) – The Advantages of the Floor Operating System   (00:47:49) – Reserve Supply Focus Moving Forward   (00:49:44) – Outro

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers the two regime model of inflation, that financial tightening transmission is much weaker, why there is no recession, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Allen   Welcome passive traders. Welcome to another edition of the Option Genius Podcast. Today, I am here with someone that's going to blow your mind. I'll give you his name, you probably haven't heard from him. But what he says is going to make a big difference for you. So John S. Pennington Jr. in 2008, co founded a family of private investment funds that by 2021 had over $28 billion of assets under management and completed a successful IPO on the New York Stock Exchange. John then retired that same year but remains a significant stakeholder and is now partner Emeritus at the company. He has been married 38 years with three sons, five grandchildren, and he recently wrote a book which we're going to be talking about called Dollars, Gold, and Bitcoin. It's right here, I could not put it down, you can find it on Amazon and Audible. You guys need to get a copy of this book, because we are not going to be able to talk about everything in this book on this interview. John, thank you so much for being here. John   Allen, so good to be here. Thanks for having me. Allen   So now I have done. I have heard you speak in the past. And so a few podcasts, I don't should have looked at the episode, but it's one of the past episodes called billionaire lessons. I have talked a little bit and gone over some of the things that you presented on which were covered in your book as well. So it was one of our most popular episodes, really happy that you're here. I just want to get into it. So the book is titled dollars gold and Bitcoin. Now I've already you know, talked about your successful guy you're doing well. Why did you write this book?  John   When I retired, some people asked me to speak on stage. And I, you know, I didn't charge them. And I just went to these masterminds and I thought, What do I want to talk about? And, you know, I just I looked at what everyone else talks about. And I thought, well, I got to talk about something different. So I started talking about economics and the Federal Reserve and the strength of the dollar and how, you know, the dollar is just a fantastic product worldwide. And I actually, you know, followed the Federal Reserve and how they promoted the US dollar over the years, and how they nudged people to make their product more acceptable around the world. And I kind of used that formula. In my company, or me and my partner's company, as we grew, we kind of use the same type of tactics that the Federal Reserve and the US government has used over the years to promote their number one product, which is the US dollar.  And so so it's kind of a, it's kind of reflection of my business history. But it's also a reflection of how I studied and watched the the greatest product ever become the greatest product ever. How did it get there, and then I just kind of wanted to learn from the best. So I just kind of use those tactics with me and my partners to kind of push our business kind of the same way. So that's why I kind of wrote it.  Allen   Cool. Now, you know, the first time I heard you speak, I've heard you speak twice. And the first time and second time, I'm listening to you, and you are taking these what seemed to be very random events around the world. Yes. It's like, Oh, this guy said this, made this comment. And then this person visited this country, and then nothing happened. And then that happened. And then you took all of these to me, they were just random, you know, like watching the news. You story after story. But you took them and you whoa, this intricate, detailed story that linked them all together. And I'm like, Whoa, how does this guy think like this? how do you how do you come up with this? , John   I don't I don't know. I just I just I think as an entrepreneur my whole life, I started my, well, my career, but when I was a young man, I just was really slow reader. I wasn't a good, I wasn't a good student. And I knew that I could not survive in corporate America. I just knew it would eat me alive. It didn't I just wouldn't fit there. And so I knew I had to be my own boss. And that means I probably need to just start my own companies. And so I remember looking in the mirror and this is I think I was 17 or 18. And I said to myself, these words and and I I've repeated this in the mirror, every year, 10 times a year, whatever, I don't know how many for 30 something 40 years, but I said this to myself in the mirror of John, you're not afraid of being poor. And John, you're not afraid of being old, you're just afraid of being old and poor at the same time. And that is stuck with me to push myself in the areas of, I have to start my own business, I have to save money to take risk, right. And so I started 14 businesses in my lifetime ish. And three, I've made a lot of money on obviously, the one I did with the funds and still in it made a lot of money, I three I've lost money on and the rest of them in the middle, you know, I made some money on them, they were pretty good for a while. But you know, so over those periods of time, when you'd make good money on one, you have to save the money and live beneath your means. So that when the next opportunity comes up, you have a war chest to go and try again. Because if you try a business, and it doesn't work, you lose the time and money. And sometimes I might, I've had a couple of businesses in a row not work. So you spend 910 months getting a business launched, and then you wait six, seven months, it doesn't work, and you go on men 18 months later, and now you're kind of out of money if you didn't save, and then you have another idea come up, and then you try that idea. And that's going to take a year, year and a half to figure out and spend all the money. So you always I always live below my means way below my means so that I would always have a war chest to take risk until I really, really, really made it. And when I first started my first fund in 2004, and then my second fund in 2007. And my third fund in 2008. You know, I didn't really know if it was going to work, work, work work work until about 2013. And up until that time, I was driving a car with 200,000 miles on it, you know, so but once I got there, then I got a Mercedes, you know, a small number, say a used Mercedes kind of thing. And so, but I was always I always lived beneath my means because I just knew I had to be a entrepreneur. So what I'm getting at was my business antennas, my business antennas my whole life since I was 17. I had been up trying to read listen to receive things, right? And when I graduated college in 8898, with an economics degree which if you have an economics degree, there's not a lot of really, you're not trying to do much right unless you go on to get a masters or PhD trained. Well, what do you I'm saying, right? I didn't matter I had a degree in and I wanted to start my business. My first business that I started right at night, not my first business but but my first successful business right out of college is in 1989 Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, they took down the wall in Germany, there used to be a wall right down the middle of Berlin, a physical wall, and they took it down. And before that time, kids in Eastern Europe could not get American products. They can watch American TV or watch American movies, but they couldn't get made in USA products. And when that wall came down, there was a flood demand because the US was like this golden child. And everyone loved the US for about 99 About 95 They just love love, love anything made the USA was the best. And they wanted American huge Levi's. Or they want American Levi's jeans because Mr. Levi Strauss in San Francisco was the first guy to ever make denim jeans. And he did him with a button flying and the original was the button fly 501. Well, all over the all over the world. These were being sold for hundreds of dollars. They were a fashion gene but in the Western United States, we'd had them for 100 years they were worth jeans. We grew up with them in high school, right but so anyway, two of my partner's eventually moved to Southern Germany and I stayed in in Utah, and I collected us Levi fiber ones all over the United States, mainly the Western United States, cleaned them up, sewed them had seamstresses, scrubbing them, cleaning them up taking the stains off of them sewing, and it shipped to my partners in Germany, and they sell them to Prague and all over the western eastern states. So I could buy new fiber ones on sale for 1499 in Utah, and they would go for 100 $120 in profit. So I had my antennas up. And so when I found out early on in Ada or early on at nine that we had a friend over there in Europe saying that people were at you know, walking up to him on the street trying to buy his jeans on down for $100 100 US dollars. And we could buy them used at a thrift store over here for $6. What's the probability I can make a business so we I ran this business for nine years From 89 to about 1988 1998. We ran this was my first real big, huge business. And it was booming. I mean, we were doing a lot of jeans. I think our best year total sales was $8.5 million. US Levi's, I think that was 9094, maybe 95. Somewhere in there. But it was the fast business. And I had, you know, seems so what I'm trying to say is, you asked me the question, how do I think this way, right? If you have your business antenna up, always trying to receive some information, and someone tells you, hey, people in Austria are paying $100 For usually buy 501 jeans, and you live in a place where you can buy them for $10. You have to think of how do I make that into a business? What's the probability? Not the prediction? What's the probability I can make that into a business? And that was my first real run into business employees in Germany employees here. It was really a fantastic, great, like classic arbitrage. Yep. Just yeah, that's right. We were value adding we were cleaning them up, right. We were selling them. We were repairing them. But yeah, it was it was a kind of arbitrage. Take a product. That's a  in Nevada, or California or Utah. Move it to a place where it's a fashion gene and charge what the going rate is. Yeah.  Allen   Cool. Awesome. All right. So let's get into the book. Now. I think that correct me if I'm wrong, but the big topic or the big overwhelming subject matter of the book is how the Fed operates and how they boxed in Bitcoin, John   or the US dollar no sorry, or gold or US dollar or the Chinese yuan. The basic point of the book is, I use the example of trying to box Bitcoin in because it appears to be an a competitor to the US dollar. Right. Gold. One point is your was a part of the US dollar and competitive US dollar. And I go in the book, I dip into the Chinese yuan that has become trying to become a competitive US dollar and the Fed, Federal Reserve's  number, the US government's number one product, it sells better than hotcakes, people say it's selling like hotcakes. Well, they should start saying it's selling like the US dollar. So Allen, if I gave you $1 a second, right, like 123456. And I never stopped, never slept Neverland the restroom, it would take me 31.7 years to give you $1 billion. In other words, if you wanted to count to 1 billion, you would still be on the Zoom call this podcast 31 years from now. Right? So I tell them that on stage a lot because a lot of people misrepresent the word 1 billion they misinterpret it. They'll say John, I was just outside. And I saw this huge flock of birds, there must have been a billion birds. And I was gonna know there wasn't, you know how I know. I did the math. You know why I did the math. When my fund hit $1 billion. We started with managing $1 billion. It was like, holy cow, how much is a billion I started calculating it. 31.7 years of seconds. So when we talk about big numbers, I always do that on stage. So people really getting getting their head, how big $1 billion is and how erroneous that a lot of people use the term billion over time. So let me just do a little history for you. Okay. So, in 1914-ish, the Federal Reserve was created because there was a stock market crash in 1907, not not 2007 1907, the stock market crash. So they created the Federal Reserve. And then in 1929, we know there was a huge stock market crash again. So 1929, the country's really, really, really hurting. And then in 1933, two things happen. The SEC was created so that we would never have a crash again, okay. And in May 1933, now get this in May 1933, the president, FDR, he signed an executive order that made it illegal for your grandfather and my grandfather to own gold. So you had to sell all of your gold to the Federal Reserve. Or if you had a gold note, because it used to be that dollars were backed by gold, you had to sell your gold note your gold coin or your gold bars to the Federal Reserve. And they would give you a paper dollar for it. And then they would take that gold and put it in Fort Knox, and that gold would backup the US dollar and help us get out of the recession or the depression. And so if your grandfather, my grandfather was caught with five gold coins in their pocket, they could go to jail. This is United States of America. Okay, but it was patriotic, I think I think if you go back it was kind of patriotic. Like, we're all doing this together. We're all in together. We all have To support our number one product, the US dollar. Okay, so, so in that that was 1933. Okay. And so how long did that last year? 41? Obviously, so 1971 ish. Oh, wow. I'll get there in just a second. Okay. Yeah. So in 1944, we knew we were going to win the war. Why? Well, we were making 96,000 planes a year, and Germany was making 38,000 planes a year. We were making, I don't know if the numbers were making 21,000 tanks, they were making 4000 tanks. We just knew by math, we were gonna win the war. So 1944 44 countries sent 1000 people to a little place called Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. And they went there to reset the dollar. So the dollar was reset by the Federal Reserve in 2019 14. Then it was reset again in 1933, by the gold confiscation, and then in 1944, it was reset again. So what happened was at 1944, everyone agreed all the countries Listen, the French franc is no longer going to be backed by gold. The French franc is going to be backed by the US dollar. And the US dollar is going to be backed by gold. Why? Because this is a crazy Alan, this is a craziest This is in 1944, the United States had 66% of all gold bullion in the world. We had it here. And there are a couple of reasons. In the first part of World War Two, we didn't get involved. We were just selling our tanks, our steel, we're selling steel to Russia, they're paying us in gold. We're selling whatever to France, they're paying a single in a world war, one synth kind of same thing happened, you know, so, and we had a gold confiscation in 1933. It was illegal for a US citizen to own gold, but it wasn't in 1944. Say 1946. Okay, my granddad had a $100 bill. He couldn't turn that in for gold. But if you were a US, if you were a French citizen, and you had a $100 bill, you could turn it in for gold. Okay, so we have like we always do, we abused this thing called the world reserve currency. Okay, we abused it. And by 1971, President de Gaulle of France knew we had been printing too many paper dollars, okay. Too many paper dollars. So he sent two ships across the Atlantic with all of their US dollars. Okay. So he sends the two ships over, and he demands here's my US dollars, give me my goal. And on. It was a Sunday night, August 15 1971, President Nixon came on live TV and announced to the world. He said basically, this, market manipulators around the world are trying to hurt our US dollar. And so he said temporarily, we're going to stop having the dollar backed by gold right now. Right? So he just told to tape your show. You're not getting your gold, right. And that was a temporary fiat currency. And that has lasted till today. So it's 5354 years old ish, right? Our dollars 5354 years old. Okay. So, and it was Allen   supposed to be temporary? It was that it was supposed to be temporary?  John   That's what he said. He said, This is a temporary pause,  Allen   just like like income tax? John   Yes, exactly. So, but in 1990, am I gonna get my dates wrong? I was gonna do a cheat sheet because I don't want to mess my dates up. The 1960. The world reserve currency, the dollar was about 45% of all world reserve currency. Okay. In 2001, it was about 70 plus percent, maybe 78% of all world reserve currency is US dollars. And 19. In 2023. Just last year, my last statistics were 58%. Okay, so in 2023, US dollar is 58% of all the world reserve currency. The euro is 20%. Okay, the Chinese yuan is 2.7% of world reserve currency. Right? So we have a huge huge Headstart and a dominance with with our number one product across the world. And so we we mean you and everyone listening to this in the United States that use US dollars, we have an advantage where we we can go anywhere in the world and just throw our US dollars around and people will love them. Yeah, that's not true for other countries, right? You have to live in other countries. You just can't walk around and use your your fiat currency and just pay for things. And so we have a huge advantage. And so my question in my book is, how did that happen? How did we are the beneficiaries how do we become the beneficiaries of having most of the world use US dollars and In one way, in 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement. No, it doesn't doesn't say this, okay. But this is kind of what happened. After World War One. Everyone's Navy is gone. China's Navy's gone. Japan's Navy's gone. Germany's Navy's gone, Italy's need is gone, France Navy's gone, everyone rushes Navy's got everyone's Navy is gone, the US has their navy intact, and Britain had some Navy still intact. Okay. And so basically what happened was we basically said, listen, navies are one of the most expensive things for a country to have. And if you just kind of agree to buy and sell your oil in US dollars, you don't even need anymore, we the United States will protect your shipping lanes. And so a little country anywhere in the world, if they buy and sell in oil in US dollars, then you don't need a navy anymore. And that allows us little countries sell their goods all over the world and take take their citizens from poverty levels up to you know, middle class. And so this is a phenomenon that's happened since 1944. Now, in 1971, when President Nixon did this, that's when our dollar became what's called the petro dollar. And that's when it really kind of heated up. And, you know, Saudi Arabia. So let's, let's just go to 1974. Okay, you live in Germany, and you want to buy a container of oil for Germany? You can't, you know, wire your Deutsche Marks from Germany down to Saudi Arabia. No, no, no, no, you have to wire your Deutsche Marks, using the SWIFT system, which will get back into the SWIFT system to the New York Fed, the New York Fed will then change your Deutsche Mark into US dollars, then you can wire US dollars to Saudi Arabia, then Saudi Arabia will send you oil, this creates insatiable demand for US dollars, right. And so to have a the number one product on the planet, by definition, you have to have insatiable demand, right? That's by definition, you have to have huge demand, right? So and the reason I know this, because we will make off the assembly line, we'll make a trillion dollars of our product, we'll make a trillion of them. And you and I will work 80 hours a week to get them more. The other people will lie, cheat and steal to get them right. They'll risk their lives on, you know, some crab ship in north north Pacific, you know, trying to get crabs and almost die trying to get more of these dollars. And then they'll will make another trillion and you Emil work 80 hours a week. Other people lie, cheat and steal. It's an insatiable demand for this product. And how did it get that way? And so to have insatiable demand, there's, I've outlined four ways in my book, one way is you tax your citizens in US dollars. So this year, I have to get us dollars to pay my taxes, I can't pay in cows, I can't pay in gold, I can't pay in Bitcoin. So that creates insatiable demand. Secondly, most countries around the world have to get us dollars to buy oil, because Saudi Arabia is the kingpin. Okay? That's it. That's the second way. A third way that you can attack a great is you create a worldwide Swift, bank to bank transfer system worldwide, where you transfer money back and forth. And it's a huge system, it's guaranteed, you know, bank to bank, and it's $1 based system. So if you want to transfer big large money from bank to bank worldwide, you have to have US dollars. And the fourth way to create insatiable demand is you can flood the world with low interest rate US dollar loans, that everyone has to pay you back for 30 years. So for 30 If you take one of these loans, for 30 years, you're gonna have to find us dollars to pay this loan back. Does that make sense? Now I'm going to stop there for questions. I got a few more things to say on that. But But do you want to any questions there Allen   that yeah, no, I'm totally with you. I mean, the SWIFT system is it's like basically, you know, you're forcing everybody to use your product, because you don't have a choice. I'm giving you money, and you have to use my system. And that's why, you know, when when they put all the sanctions on Russia a couple years ago, it was you know, supposedly, okay, we're gonna take you off the SWIFT system. Yeah. That was a mistake, big mistake. But it's like, oh, that was supposed to be the end of Russia as we know it.  John   But yeah, so I'm gonna get back to that in a minute. But that was definitely a mistake of the United States of America, because that hurt the glorification of their number one product, the US dollar, so let's go back to loans. Okay. Okay. All right. So the date is December 2018. Okay. The Federal Reserve says the economy is doing fantastic. Unemployment rate is low. You know, we're going to do next year in 2019. We're going to increase interest rates three times. Okay, great. Then less than 45 days later in December 2019, this is 45 days, they say, Oops, we made a mistake. We're not going to raise interest rates three times next year. We're going to lower interest rates three times next year. And I went, what just happened? I have an economics degree, right? Something huge just happened. I didn't know what it was. But I knew something big just happened. So I'm reading I got my antennas up trying to read everything I can. So March, a few months later, I read this report that says in Europe, there are $3 trillion $3 trillion of sovereign bonds, trading at negative interest rates. I have an economics degree. I've never read a book. I've never read a paragraph. I don't even know what a negative interest rate is. It's a bond that if you buy it, you're guaranteed mathematically to lose money. Why does that? Why would that even exist? Not in a couple billion, but 3 trillion? Why? That doesn't make any sense. Okay. And then a few months later in July, this is the summer 219, I read a new report. It's no, it's no, it's no longer 3 trillion, it's 14 trillion. What? There's $14 trillion. Okay, so then I think, okay, now I kind of know why the Federal Reserve lowered their interest rates almost to zero really fast. Because they're like, Listen, if you're going to borrow money around the world, you can borrow in Germany at zero. Or you can borrow US dollars at just a little above zero. So we're going to lower interest rates to compete, because we're trying to create insatiable demand for our number and product. And for the next three or four years, if you're just borrowing borrowing German and Spain dollars, right? That means you're not borrowing US dollars, right? And that's, that's not creating  in the future. So what did the Federal Reserve they lower interest rates, but that doesn't just do it, you have to actually go into the market. So think about what I'm about to say here. They lowered interest rates, plus the Federal Reserve went out, and they purchased bonds, $120 billion per month for over 30 months. Because when you buy bonds, buy bonds, buy bonds, buy bonds, buy bonds, the price of bonds goes up. And that means the yields go down. Right. So if every month I'm purchasing 100 billion $120 billion for the bonds, I'm keeping interest rates low, plus the Federal Reserve as interest rates low. So they keep it low for years and years and years, a few years. So that when you borrow money, you're least not borrowing someone else's money, you're borrowing our number one product, and that creates insatiable demand for their number one product. Does that make sense? Any questions? Yep. Yep. So my antennas again, back to your original question my antennas, how do I like this? My antennas are always looking for things that don't make sense. And then I try to read, how does it make sense? And when I keep putting the US dollar in the middle of things that don't make sense? It kind of makes sense. So I tell people, my book, I said, my book look, guys, ladies, I don't know if I'm right. I just I don't really run my life trying to predict the future because I don't think anyone can predict the future, right? I run my life on probabilities. And so I'm just saying the probability of me being right about the US dollar and being the number one product, Federal Reserve, and either US government and the Navy and whatever, I have a high probability of being correct, but I'm not I'm don't think I'm right. I might have a 20% probability I'm wrong. 80% that I'm right. If you don't agree with me that i Okay, fine. I agree. I might be 20% wrong, but just probability, right. So that's, that's where the essence of the book comes from. Allen   Right. Okay. Now, since you brought up the Fed, that was one of my other questions. It was in the book, you mentioned that, you know, the Fed is been out there talking a lot lately about oh, we want you know, our inflation rate to be 2%. We want unemployment to be a certain number, blah, blah, blah. But you're you've basically said that, that's what they're saying. But what they're doing is something opposite, and they actually wanted it to be much higher.  John   Yeah, so this is what happened a few years ago after the financial crisis. 2008 9, 10,  11 Okay. The world realize that the world is a lot more fragile than you think it is. So Germany, not in Germany, sorry, Russia and China started buying gold. And every year they bought more gold and we're going to 1013 they bought more gold 2014 They kept buying gold. And I was watching this going okay. You know it listen, if I if I ran China, I was president of China. I would not like the fact that I have to get us dollars to buy Oil, that. And so I'm not blaming China, I'm not blaming Russia, I'm just saying, I'm on this side of the negotiating table there on that side, I'm just explaining their side. So they might have got together and said, Listen, in the future, we think the US dollar is going to have some cracks in it. And if it ever has a big crack, we can introduce the Russian ruble and the Chinese yuan as alternative currencies. And therefore, then we can start buying oil in our own currency that they're planning in the future. I see US presidents are kind of like temporary employees. They're 40 years, Putin has been president for what 27-28 years, they'll probably be president for another 20 years. We don't know. Xi Jinping is usually I've said his name, right. He changed the Constitution, and allows him the option to be president for Life for life. Yeah, yeah. So these guys are long term strategist, our president has to get reelected. He's a temporary employee, so they have an advantage over us. Okay. So anyway, so then a few years back, China and Russia, say, you know, we should do let's start $1 called the BRICS dollar, we'll call it Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. And these countries will come together and have their own dollar called the BRICS dollar that is going to be backed by commodities. So if you have a barrel of oil, you get so many bricks dollars, if you have a bushel of wheat, you get so many bricks, if you have gold, you get so many bricks dollars, and they've been trying to launch this for years. Okay, so, so obviously, the Fed seeing this, and that's a competitor to the US dollar, and it's going to be a competitor to US dollar. So the Fed is strategically trying to move around to to make sure that doesn't happen. And that might explain why, you know, Putin, one of the reasons Putin took over Ukraine, Ukraine has a lot of oil and a lot of wheat. And he's like, the BRICS dollars going to be real in a couple of years. If I have all this, we know I get more brickstone That might be one of the reasons, okay. So. So the Fed trying to in this last year and a half just or two years, raising interest rates, the Fed to protect their number one product, and this is this theory. And again, I know your some of your listeners are gonna say, John, you're just you're being way too conspiracy. But when there's a lot of money on the table, a lot of crazy things happen because people coordinate a lot of things. Anyway, I think it's coordinate because the US dollar is the waterline in the table. So a few years back, China started to try to buy oil from Saudi Arabia using the yuan, because China is a big oil importer. Okay. And so far, I think we so far, I don't think Saudi Arabia has done it yet. But and not just to convince Saudi Arabia not to do it. The Fed i Okay, let's, let's just hypothecate the Fed wants to hurt China wants to lower their acceptance of the yuan around the world, and you want only accepted by 2.7% of world currency. So it's not that big a threat yet, but it could be in the future. Okay. So China does it to themselves. They have a big huge that in the last two years, they have a big, huge real estate collapse. They have a big huge employment collapse. Hundreds of companies have moved out of China to Germany have hundreds of companies from Germany, Japan and the United States have moved out of China. They've gone to India, they've gone to Thailand, they've gone to South Korea, all countries that purchase their oil in US dollars. China has been trying to purchase oil, not using US dollars. So we got to hurt that we have to hurt that country, because Okay, so how can I hurt that country? Well, one, China has said they're going to de dollarized the world. China said we're going to start selling our US Treasuries. Okay. Okay. So what we can do so let's just say, the Federal Reserve to make sure every time China sells US Treasuries, they lose a lot of money, because they bought US Treasuries back when bond prices were low. So let's just say if the Fed wanted to get interest rates to five and a half 6%. Okay, I thought it was gonna go six and a half, but it went to five and a quarter, five and a half. Okay. They can't tell you and me, Alan, hey, you a US citizens. We're just gonna raise interest rates to 2% because inflation is 2%. And we'd go Yeah, that's okay. That's okay. But if inflation is 2%, they could never convince us that they can raise to five and a half percent. That'd be egregious, right? But wait, if inflation is 9%, then you and I would accept 5% interest rates. Right, right. We don't like it, but we realize everyone has. Okay, so how do I get it? How do I get inflation to 9% when it's been almost zero for years and years and years and years and years? You print a lot of money. You see inflation come along, and it goes from zero to 2%. And you tell everyone with your mouth, on a microphone, it's transitory. It's just transfer Everyone calm down. Then a few months later, it goes to 3% inflation. Now, we're not going to move rates, we're going to keep rates low, at a quarter percent, we're not going to raise them because transitory it goes to 4%. And they let it run, it goes to five, it goes to six. And then they say, Well, maybe it's not transitory, maybe we need to raise interest rates, then it goes to seven, they started raising interest rates, and it goes to nine, and they're able to raise interest rates to five and a quarter percent, the fastest rate in history. And they lit they stopped, they stopped them there. Why? Because if they every time, they have interest rates sitting at five and five and a quarter percent, every time China goes to sell their US Treasuries, they get killed financially, it kills them. So my conspiracy theory is, hey, if the number one job of the Federal Reserve is to protect and promote the US dollar, they have ancillary jobs, low unemployment, high GDP, I get it, but their number one job, their baseline job is to predict or promote the US dollar, then, if they have a competitor to the US dollar, China coming around, we need to crush China's dollar. And right now, China prints more money than we do. Because they're huge depression right now, because of all the things that happened to him. And so they're selling all this, you know, US Treasuries, because they have to, because they don't want to because they're losing money on it. Why? Because they're trying to keep their economy afloat. Now, the Fed is sending a message to Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, aren't you so glad? That a few years back, you didn't start selling your oil in yuan? Because you would have billions of you want in your bank right now? And the yuan is tanking. Right. So people say now, five or six years ago, if you told me, I agreed China was going to take over the world, China was going to be a superpower with us now. I don't believe that anymore. Clearly. Okay. China has had 40 years of the fastest economy growth ever, right? No society has ever grown faster than China has last 40 years. And they're only 2.7% of the world reserve currency. So are you telling me if they have the same growth for next 40 years? They would be 7%? No, I'm saying. Allen   I have to interrupt this message. Because I am super excited. I haven't been this excited about something in trading since I first discovered trading options. Okay, it is that important. Now, look, this is a new strategy that I've discovered recently, that is just out there, kicking butt and taking names. I can't give you all the details here. But if you go to market power method.com and get all the information again, that's market power. method.com. Trust me, you want to know what this is. Now back to the show. John   And so when someone says we're going to replace the US dollar, I give them this example. And I love people in Arizona. I love Arizona, but I'm just gonna give this example. Okay, it's not it's just a hypothetical. Let's just say you and me agree that all the water in Arizona is bad. Okay, we both agree. What do you want to do? Well, we want to, we want to, we want to replace it with Gatorade, okay, so we searched the whole world for all the Gatorade in the world, and we bring it back. And it's not even a drop. We can't even, we can't even begin. So if you want to replace the US dollar, you have to replace it with something, you just can't not have it anymore. You have to replace the water with something. And there's not enough of anything that none of you want in the world, none of euros. There's nothing in the world big enough to replace the US dollar for years and decades to come. So the US dollar in the dominance is going to be around for a long time. Now the BRICS dollar, they're going to chip away at it right. So China, you know, is a net importer of oil, and they're a net importer of food. The United States is a net exporter of oil and an exporter of food. We have a geographic advantage over most countries on the planet. We can have a bad precedent, bad precedent, bad precedent, bad precedent, bad precedent. And we still kind of survived because we have things that other people don't have. The Mississippi Valley is two thirds of the country. Although arbitrary rivers, you can it's a slow moving river, you can put grain on that barge and floated anywhere. A lot of countries don't have that. And we produce a lot of oil and a lot of everything. And we just have a kind of an advantage over most countries. So China has got to, you know, build pipelines as quick as possible to Russia. They have to solve their oil problem, because without solving their oil problem, supply they You can't attack Taiwan. Because our aircraft carriers, our Navy could cut off most of their oil within 120 days. It all comes mostly over the water until China gets that pipeline. Right. And they know it. They know that they are. They're not ready. They have an Achilles heel. So let me give you a crazy thing that happened in in the news just last year. I'm reading the report watching the news. China brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Why? Doesn't even make any sense. But if you put the US dollar in there, it makes sense. So China is trying to de dollarized the world. They go to Iran, they say Iran, listen, who do you hate more? United States or Saudi Arabia? Oh, we hate the United States. Okay, fine. Okay, listen, if you want to really, really hurt United States, we have to de dollarized the world. Okay, how we're gonna do that? Well, one way is you can stop attacking Saudi Arabia, because the United States has an aircraft carrier off the side of Saudi Arabia to protect Saudi Arabia against you. And Saudi Arabia needs the aircraft carrier, and the F 30. Fives on their bases and 5000 troops in Saudi Arabia, they need all that. That's why they can't sell oil from Saudi Arabia to China and the yuan, because they have to keep being in good graces with the United States. Because Saudi needs that military protection. But Iran if you stop attacking Saudi Arabia, maybe this year, next year, Saudi Arabia goes You don't want we don't need military protection anymore. So we're going to start selling our oil to shock to China in the yuan. And then the the domino effect, the US dollar comes crumbling down over years, and the United States power around the world gets demolished. So again, back to my probabilities. The Alan, I don't know if I'm wrong. It just seems when I put the US dollar in crazy situations. It makes total sense. Now, a few months later, President Biden realized he was losing the battle in the the, you know, the whatever battle you want to call it in the Middle East. What does he do? He takes his number one product, the US dollar, and he sends I think about $6 billion to Iran in humanitarian aid. That's his number. I'm proud to say I ran I ran And we're still your friends. If you're gonna trade around the world, here's some US dollars to trade in. Right, Allen   right. Yeah, that came out of nowhere. It was like, what, what's going on? John   Why, why? Why? Why do you do that? Because a few months earlier, there was a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Why? Because they want to de dollarized. They want to convince Saudi Arabia. They don't need us, Doc, but but the Fed is now still sending. There's two messages, right. And so about a year ago, year and a half ago, President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia. The thing about this, President states flies to see the prince. The prince didn't come to see him. He went to see the prince. Now we don't know what he said. Allen   And everybody made fun of him. Everybody, ever they funded media was all I got. I John   gotta give President Biden kudos. Right? Because I think I know what he was doing. I think he was over there convincing the Saudi prince not to sell oil in anything but US dollars. He creates because Allen   they had made an announcement. Before that happened. They had made an announcement that we're going to we're going to switch and we're going to do both or something that I remember something's right. Yeah. John   So if you ever take a negotiation class, okay. There is there's a lot of different ways to negotiate. But one of the ways one of the tricks in negotiation is you ask a question to your opponent, and then you let them try to answer it. So we I don't know what I don't know what President Biden said. But he could have said this. Okay. Mr. Saudi prince, if you start selling your oil to China in the yuan, all right. How am I as the US President going to convince the US Congress to pay for aircraft carriers off your coast 5000 troops on your soil, sell you f 30 fives, and then also give you satellite information from our secret satellites? How are we going to pay for all that? If you start selling your oil in you want then what you do in negotiation? You zip your lip, you shut up, you say no more and you sit back. And you you allow your opponent to try to very uncomfortably answer your question. And they sit there and go. Well, you can no you could you Oh, you know what? You know what, Mr. President, you can't convince Congress to pay for all that. Exactly. So therefore don't sell your oil to China in year one. And then a few years later, guess what? The Yuan is crashing because they're spending so much money. because we got interest rates up to five, because we want to win because we got the inflation to nine. So we five and now the Chinese economy look China did to themselves, we just poured gas on. Okay, one more example. That is. So we know of two people that sold a lot of oil not using US dollars. And that was Moammar Qaddafi of Libya, and Saddam Hussein of Iraq. Both of these gentlemen, I don't know how else to say it a few years after they did this large sales of oil without using US dollars. Both of these gentlemen were killed. They left the planet. And I'm not saying the US killed them. What I am saying is the US backed away from them, and let other people get them all the way, you know, take them out, right. So the last person that we know of that is doing oil and gas, not using is Putin. Putin said less Jaffa the war, he says, you know, after we took him off the SWIFT system, which we shouldn't have done, we should have left them on SWIFT system to keep them using US dollars. We took them on SWIFT system, we weaponize the US dollar. And that allowed China and Brazil go wait a minute. If the government the United States can seize my US Dollars anytime they want, then the US dollar really isn't a store of value. It's that yeah, that woke the world up a little bit. And we shouldn't have done it. Right, because our number one product is now damaged a little bit. Okay. But anyway, so Putin says, hey, you know, we're going to do so Putin goes into Ukraine and button think about the rhetoric. Biden says, We think Putin, you're a bad guy you gotta get out of Ukraine. Then Putin says, we're no longer selling our oil and gas, we're only going to take rubles and gold. Then Biden changed his rhetoric. Biden said, we now need a regime change in Russia. That's way different than saying we need you out of Ukraine. When you say I need a regime change, I think about Moammar Qaddafi, and Saddam Hussein. Right. That's a big difference. Okay. So what happened was a few months after that, after Putin says we're not selling, we're not selling oil and gas. With us dollars anymore. There's there's a pipeline, there's two pipelines that go under this was this was hilarious, isn't it? Yeah. There are two pipelines. They go from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany, and they sell Germany natural gas. Well, a few months after this happened that Putin said, I'm not going to take us dollars anymore. Someone with a submarine blew up. Nord Stream one and Nord Stream to Allen   someone we don't know who know, they claim responsibility, John   no responsibility. And I'm sure I'm sure that you know, President Biden, when he talks to the Saudi prince goes, Hey, Saudi prince, we're so glad you're still you know, selling all of your oil in US dollars. No one by the way. Did you hear about Nord Stream? One Nord Stream two? Yeah, crazy, right? We live in a crazy, crazy world. It's just I'm sure he reminds everyone this right? That you don't mess with the number one product the United States, you just don't mess with it. Right? So this is all these are all chapters in my book, at least the first half of the book, you know, a lot of economics that I'm trying to about. I'm just trying to get people to think on a different level. And a different thing that kids these days like to play these video games all weekend long, they'll go on three day weekend, you know, never go to sleep. Well, this what I've explained to you is the biggest game ever invented. Yep, there is no bigger game. And when I'm explaining to it's the biggest risk game, the biggest global game. It's the biggest game ever. And I'm studying it and watching it. And it is fascinating to me. And I don't even know if I'm right. But man when I keep doing probabilities, and it just seems I'm right.  

Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks to Bill Dudley, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and former president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he also served as vice chairman and a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee. He is the chair of the Bretton Woods Committee, and has been a nonexecutive director at Swiss bank UBS since 2019. Previously, he was executive vice president of the Markets Group at the New York Fed, where he also managed the System Open Market Account. He has also been a partner and managing director at Goldman Sachs & Co. and was the firm's chief US economist; vice president at the former Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. Ltd.; and chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System of the Bank for International Settlements. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this exhilarating episode 216 of The Higher Standard Podcast, Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive into the the tumultuous tumble of regional bank stocks, led by New York Community Bancorp's dramatic diva moment — cutting dividends and flaunting losses like it's going out of style. But don't let NYCB's solo act fool you; while they're busy singing the blues and getting sued by shareholders for a throwback to their 1997 stock price, Moody's isn't here for the nostalgia, slapping them with a junk rating faster than you can say "financial meltdown." Meanwhile, Powell plays it cool, promising rate cuts with the enthusiasm of a parent telling their kids they'll think about getting a puppy. Sponsored By Transcend Company:TRANSCEND your goals! With a telehealth physician directed personalized treatment plan you can get a PERSONALIZED PLAN for Peptide Therapy, Hormone Replacement Therapy, Cognitive Function, Sleep & Fatigue, Athletic Performance and MORE. Their online process and medical experts make it simple to find out what's right for you. Click the link and start today: http://www.transcendcompany.com/THSP Resources:Regional Bank Stocks Fall After New York Community Bancorp Cuts Dividend, Posts Loss (The Wall Street Journal)New York Community Bank's Problems Look Mostly to Be Its Own (The Wall Street Journal)New York Community Bancorp is sued by shareholders as stock sinks to 1997 level (Reuters)Moody's Cuts NYCB to Junk, Extending Sharp Decline in Shares (The Wall Street Journal)Powell insists the Fed will move carefully on rate cuts, with probably fewer than the market expects(CNBC)Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating ‘financial stress,' New York Fed says (CNBC)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Introduction Hosts Matty A and Brian Breedwell kick off the episode discussing the recent NFL games, focusing on the 49ers' performance. Market Insights and Predictions Discussion shifts to financial topics, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) updates and the implications for the economy. Analysis of recent earnings reports and global events impacting the market. Insights into real estate trends, both in the residential and commercial sectors. Investment Strategies Conversation on strategic vs. tactical investment approaches. The importance of holistic financial planning and diversification across asset classes. Economic Outlook Discussion on various economic forecasts and opinions from institutions like the New York Fed and BlackRock. Evaluation of the housing market's resilience and future prospects. Impact of Media and Public Figures on Financial Decisions A critical look at how public figures like Robert Kiyosaki influence investor behavior. Examination of sensationalist claims in the media and their impact on individual investment choices. Closing Remarks Final thoughts on staying informed and making educated financial decisions in a volatile market. Encouragement for listeners to stay proactive in their financial journey. Segments: NFL Game Recap: Conversation about the recent San Francisco 49ers game, including team performance and game highlights. Economic and Financial Analysis: Discussion on the Federal Open Market Committee updates, stock market trends, and the state of various economic sectors. Real Estate Focus: Insights into the real estate market, including predictions and current trends. Immigration and Border Issues: Addressing the Texas border situation and its impact on state and federal government dynamics. Investment Strategies: Providing advice on investment approaches and market predictions, focusing on wealth growth and financial planning. Audience Engagement: Encouraging listeners to share videos and topics for future discussions. Conclusion: The podcast wraps up with a summary of the key points discussed, emphasizing the importance of informed investment and financial planning. Episode Sponsored By: Caldera Lab: Visit https://calderalab.com/MINDCAST or use the code MINDCAST to get 20% off! Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/ MY FIRST 50K!: Visit https://mattaitchison.com/coaching/ and submit your application to join! Uplift Desk: Visit https://www.upliftdesk.com/mindcast or use the code MINDCAST for a 5% discount! Gusto: Visit https://www.gusto.com/millionairemindcast to get 3 Months free!

New York Fed's Empire PMI kicked off the January data cycle by plunging. In the meantime, the rest of the regional data filled in the picture for the month and the final one of the group ended up more like the first one than not. We shouldn't underestimate the usefulness of these surveys especially since there are numerous signs, however long it might end up being, this is still a cycle. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTexas Manufacturing Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2401#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Stocks rise; interest rates will likely have to stay high for “some time”; Amazon announces layoffs in streaming and studios division; wholesalers inventories fall.