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2 episodes with ed yardeni
Could Trump's tariffs push China to the brink and trigger the next global crisis? In this must-watch conversation, market strategist Ed Yardeni joins James Connor to break down the explosive mix of politics, policy, and market volatility shaping 2025. Yardeni explains why he believes U.S. stocks may have already bottomed, why gold is back in favor, and how Trump's trade agenda could have massive unintended consequences, including rising tension with China and the risk of conflict over Taiwan. Yardeni unpacks: Why April's lows may mark the bottom for U.S. equities Why today's extreme fear may be a contrarian buy signal How Trump's tariff policy could spark geopolitical shockwaves Why China-Taiwan tensions are heating up The legal battles challenging Trump's trade authority Why central banks (and Yardeni) are now backing gold His revised S&P 500 target and earnings forecast for 2025 The emotional swing from American exceptionalism to global pessimism Whether we're headed for a recession or something worse How North American energy dominance could provide a long-term edge Yardeni also weighs in on warnings from Ray Dalio, the actions of Warren Buffett, and the lawsuits that could reshape Trump's tariffs. This is a must-watch if you want a balanced, data-driven perspective on what's really driving markets in 2025. Chapters: 00:26 - Market Panic or Golden Opportunity? Yardeni Says Buy 02:27 - Yardeni's Bold Call: S&P 6000 by Year-End? 03:20 - Valuation Crystal Ball: The Earnings Math Behind 6000 04:08 - Wall Street Wins Big—But What About Main Street? 06:23 - Bonds Battered: Why Yardeni Isn't Selling 08:11 - Is the U.S. Government Quietly Engineering a Recession? 11:53 - China's Secret Weapon: Dumping Treasuries & Buying Gold? 15:25 - Could a China-Taiwan War Crash the Global Economy? 18:32 - Dollar in Decline: Real Risk or Overblown Fear? 19:48 - Recession Incoming? Yardeni vs. Ray Dalio's Doomsday View 36:40 - Oil & Copper Crash: Warning Signs for Global Growth? Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/3G6NE78 Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #EdYardeni #StockMarket #Gold #Geopolitics #Trump #Tariffs #China #Taiwan #Recession #Macroeconomy #MarketOutlook #EconomicRisks #PortfolioStrategy #StockMarket #stocks ________________________________________________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode, Don and Tom address the market's recent correction—without ever saying the “D-word.” They explain how global diversification cushions the blow, why balanced portfolios aren't as battered as headlines suggest, and how reacting emotionally is the real danger. They also dive into classic investing mistakes, like stock concentration and chasing headlines, and share guidance on rebalancing thresholds. Listener questions include when to rebalance, how to strategically tap accounts in retirement, and whether it's time to break up with Edward Jones (spoiler: it is). 0:04 “D-word” banter and market correction intro 1:24 The $5 trillion “missing” from markets—why it's not doomsday 2:10 Tariffs, uncertainty, and what markets hate most 3:29 Year-to-date performance: S&P 500, total U.S., and global portfolios 4:56 Diversification works—global value stocks still positive 5:14 Media panic vs. reality—why not watching CNBC is a good move 6:11 Real portfolio check-in: diversified and down just 5% 7:36 What to do when the market drops—don't panic 8:00 “It's different this time”—but not really 9:35 Risk check: how much are you really taking? 10:43 Concentration risk: why individual stocks and tech are volatile 11:50 Tesla and Apple tank—example of why you diversify 13:45 Expert noise: Bill Gross vs. Ed Yardeni—ignore both 15:54 Market predictions: why you should tune out “legendary” investors 16:31 Jason Zweig's pyramid of regret—make small, smart moves 18:28 Tariffs aren't good, but they're also not the end 20:19 Listener Patty asks: When should I rebalance? (5–10% rule explained) 25:31 Listener Karen asks: Which account should I draw from in retirement? 33:07 Listener Dan asks: Should I still sell stocks and buy ETFs? (Yes.) 35:21 Listener Frank asks: Is it time to stop trading with Edward Jones? (Absolutely.) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Stephen Burke discussed the current economic uncertainty, noting a potential double bottom in the US market and the impact of global trade fragmentation. He highlighted the rise in defense spending globally, including in the US, Europe, and China, and the challenges of developing new defense programs. Energy demand is increasing, with a 2.2% growth in 2024. Infrastructure needs in the US are significant, with a $3.7 trillion gap by 2033. The discussion also covered the impact of tariffs on inflation, the rule of law, and the potential for recession due to policy uncertainties.Issues & RisksUncertainty in global trade and tariffsPotential for stagflationChallenges in defense spending and program effectivenessIncreased energy demand and its impactInfrastructure needs and funding gapsConcerns about the U.S. upholding the rule of lawPotential impact on U.S. exceptionalism and global leadershipNext stepsStephen Burke mentioned an upcoming Zoom call on April 22nd with Dr. Ed Yardeni to discuss Trump's first 90 days and economic outlookMark Sanor mentioned several upcoming events, including one in Vegas, a Palo Alto event with Eric Schmidt speaking, and events in Riyadh, DC, and SeattleQuestions discussed"Have we reached max uncertainty?""What can the administration be doing that it's not doing to avert, avoid, slow down and decimate or extinguish rising costs?""Do you see any policies in this administration that is second Trump, big spending administration? Do you see any policies whatsoever that would lead to deficit reaction reduction?""What do you think about this idea that is the US, not opportunity for all?"TimelineApril 22nd: Zoom call with Dr. Ed Yardeni to discuss Trump's first 90 days and economic outlookJune 16-18: Upcoming event mentioned by Mark Sanor, described as potentially one of their best events2029: IMF projection for global GDP to reach 130-140 trillion dollars You can subscribe to various 361 events and content at https://361firm.com/subs. For reference: Web: www.361firm.com/homeOnboard as Investor: https://361.pub/shortdiagOnboard Deals 361: www.361firm.com/onbOnboard as Banker: www.361firm.com/bankersEvents: www.361firm.com/eventsContent: www.youtube.com/361firmWeekly Digests: www.361firm.com/digest
Influential strategist and economist Ed Yardeni reflects on the remarkable resilience of the US economy and markets over the years despite what happens in Washington and around the world. WEALTHTRACK episode 2139 broadcast on March 28, 2025
Ed Yardeni thinks we're seeing a “selling of the winners,” but that people are holding onto other names, citing that the S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 is holding steady. He expects continued choppiness. Analyzing international equities, he thinks China will continue to struggle because of its aging population and doesn't think Germany's auto companies will be able to turn around.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Trump tariffs are upending financial markets, causing influential economist and strategist Ed Yardeni to turn from bullish to cautious.
Stocks coming off a tough February - Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber broke down the latest for markets on the heels of another weak data print top of the hour (ISM Manu/Construction Spend). Plus, a discussion on the outlook for 2025 – with Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni, who's betting growth will slow in Q1 – but re-accelerate into the back half of the year… Also, more with one analyst calling Apple the “safe-haven trade” of big tech. Another key driver: Washington. From Trump's hopes for a “Crypto Reserve” to a new national investigation into lumber imports, the team talked market implications – and dove deep into the ecosystem for rare earth minerals with the biggest producer in the western hemisphere (MP Materials) after Trump's failed deal with Ukraine. Plus, a look at how China and retailers are prepping for tonight's tariffs deadline. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Ed Yardeni is one of the most influential voices on Wall Street. In this interview, he explains why we're in the “Roaring '20s,” how he coined the terms Bond Vigilantes and the Fed Model, and why being a permabull has been his successful strategy for the last 45 years. https://www.yardeni.com https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com Acquista il libro di The Bull! Sei già ricco ma non lo sai (disponibile a questo link) =============================================== Investi con Fineco, 60 trade gratis nei primi tre mesi con il codice TRD060-TB.(#ad). Investi con Scalable in azioni e ETF a prezzi imbattibili. 4Books, 7 giorni di prova e sconto del 30% L'Assicurazione sulla Vita semplice e conveniente: Turtleneck. I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: I contenuti di questo canale hanno esclusivamente finalità di informare e intrattenere. Le informazioni fornite sul canale hanno valore indicativo e non sono complete circa le caratteristiche dei prodotti menzionati. Chiunque ne faccia uso per fini diversi da quelli puramente informativi cui sono destinati, se ne assume la piena responsabilità. Tutti i riferimenti a singoli strumenti finanziari non devono essere intesi come attività di consulenza in materia di investimenti, né come invito all'acquisto dei prodotti o servizi menzionati. Investire comporta il rischio di perdere il proprio capitale. Investi solo se sei consapevole dei rischi che stai correndo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Quella di Ed Yardeni è una delle voci più ascoltate in assoluto a Wall Street. In questa intervista ci spiega perché ci troviamo nei "Ruggenti anni '20", perché ha inventato il concetto di Bond Vigilantes e il Fed Model e perché essere un permabull è da 45 la sua strategia di successo. https://www.yardeni.com https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com Acquista il libro di The Bull! Sei già ricco ma non lo sai (disponibile a questo link) =============================================== Investi con Scalable in azioni e ETF a prezzi imbattibili. Investi con Fineco, 60 trade gratis nei primi tre mesi con il codice TRD060-TB. 4Books, 7 giorni di prova e sconto del 30% L'Assicurazione sulla Vita semplice e conveniente: Turtleneck. I link sono sponsorizzati e l'Autore potrebbe percepire una commissione. =============================================== ATTENZIONE: I contenuti di questo canale hanno esclusivamente finalità di informare e intrattenere. Le informazioni fornite sul canale hanno valore indicativo e non sono complete circa le caratteristiche dei prodotti menzionati. Chiunque ne faccia uso per fini diversi da quelli puramente informativi cui sono destinati, se ne assume la piena responsabilità. Tutti i riferimenti a singoli strumenti finanziari non devono essere intesi come attività di consulenza in materia di investimenti, né come invito all'acquisto dei prodotti o servizi menzionati. Investire comporta il rischio di perdere il proprio capitale. Investi solo se sei consapevole dei rischi che stai correndo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning
In this deep-dive conversation, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key insights from their interview with Dr. Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's most respected market strategists. The discussion explores how Yardeni's independent thinking and data-driven approach led him to correctly predict several major market developments in 2023-24, including the path of inflation and the absence of a widely-predicted recession. The hosts analyze Yardeni's unique framework for understanding market cycles, particularly how monetary, credit, and business cycles interact. They examine his explanation of why traditional recession indicators like yield curve inversions failed this time, and why focusing on labor market data proved more valuable. Yardeni's perspective on the Federal Reserve's evolution in handling financial crises offers crucial context for today's market environment. They discuss Yardeni's "Roaring 2020s" thesis, which predicts sustained economic growth driven by technological innovation and productivity gains. This optimistic outlook, first proposed at the start of the decade, has gained additional relevance with the emergence of AI and other transformative technologies. The conversation also delves into practical investment wisdom, including Yardeni's emphasis on quality dividend-growing stocks for long-term investors and the importance of maintaining healthy skepticism toward market consensus. Throughout the episode, Yardeni demonstrates how combining macroeconomic analysis with real-world observations leads to better investment decisions. Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting to learn about markets, this discussion offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's most successful strategists thinks about economics, market cycles, and long-term investing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/
Despite the recent and relentless rise in Treasury bond yields and a sell off in the stock market, Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, remains one of the most bullish strategists out there. Yardeni, who coined the term "Bond Vigilantes", outlines the risks, probabilities and opportunities facing investors today, and explains why he sees the S&P 500 topping 10,000 by the end of the decade. Plus, expensive stocks have pushed the equity risk premium to historical lows, but those hoping for it to rise better be careful what they wish for. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-877192 https://www.investopedia.com/hiring-surprisingly-surged-in-december-8772350 https://classic.foodandwine.com/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20180926tealbooka20180914.pdf https://yardeni.com/ https://yardeni.com/quicktakes/ https://www.investopedia.com/bond-vigilante-6386194 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Despite the recent and relentless rise in Treasury bond yields and a sell off in the stock market, Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, remains one of the most bullish strategists out there. Yardeni, who coined the term "Bond Vigilantes", outlines the risks, probabilities and opportunities facing investors today, and explains why he sees the S&P 500 topping 10,000 by the end of the decade. Plus, expensive stocks have pushed the equity risk premium to historical lows, but those hoping for it to rise better be careful what they wish for. LINKS FOR SHOW NOTES www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-877192 https://www.investopedia.com/hiring-surprisingly-surged-in-december-8772350 https://classic.foodandwine.com/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20180926tealbooka20180914.pdf https://yardeni.com/ https://yardeni.com/quicktakes/ https://www.investopedia.com/bond-vigilante-6386194 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
We review an investment strategy to build your retirement nest egg over the next 10 to 20 years. We take a look at some of the best income investments for 2025. We also introduce you to the "America Agenda" investment portfolio.
Yardeni Research President, Chief Investment Strategist, and Founder Edward Yardeni discusses bond market expectations. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, has predicted the economy will "roar" through the 2020s and perhaps into the 2030s, propelled by productivity growth. It's a bullish recipe for markets, too. Barron's Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Deputy Editor Ben Levisohn talk with Yardeni about his Roaring 20s thesis, and his 2025 market outlook.
Well, this interview is being recorded the day after the Federal Reserve spooked markets by slowing the expected pace of future rate cuts. The S&P instantly dropped 3% on the news and bond yields spiked. Is this just temporary heartburn as the markets digest the news? Or might this signal that markets have just peaked? For perspective, we're fortunate to be joined by Dr. Ed Yardini, President of Yardeni Research. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.”-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Ed on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?17:57 - Will inflation become sticky?19:29 - Yardeni's perspective on the neutral...
Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning
We ask one question at the end of each of our episodes: Based on your experience in markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would it be? In this episode, we discuss our favorite answers from our guests in 2024. Featuring insights from: Jim Paulsen on understanding your true impact as an investor Cliff Asness on the importance of looking at your portfolio less frequently Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth vs. chasing returns Jared Dillian on avoiding catastrophic losses Ian Cassel on the value of doing your own work Bob Elliott on the importance of humility Ed Yardeni on fading the consensus Eric Crittenden on mastering the basics before pursuing complexity Andrew Beer on the power of long-term thinking Kris Sidial on balancing optimism with preparedness Learn why the fundamentals of investing often matter more than complex strategies, how to avoid common behavioral pitfalls, and why getting the basics right can put you ahead of 90% of investors. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just starting your investment journey, these practical insights will help you build a more resilient investment strategy. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS https://sunpointeinvestments.com/ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau FOLLOW MATT Twitter: https://twitter.com/cultishcreative LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/
In this week's edition of Wealthion's Weekly Market Recap, Andrew Brill highlights key insights from our expert guests: • Peter Schiff explores the risks of Bitcoin and predicts a return to quantitative easing by the Fed. • Ed Yardeni discusses Trump's economic policies, the Fed's rate strategy, and the implications of global energy trends. • Lobo Tiggre shares his bullish outlook on uranium, the labor market, and gold's continued momentum. • Jordi Visser dives into AI, Bitcoin's network effect, and the transition from globalization to decentralization. Stay informed about the latest market trends, expert analyses, and how they might impact your financial future. Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/3ZgCUc8 Hard Assets Alliance - The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction by Andrew Brill 00:23 - Peter Schiff Interview Highlights | Full Interview: https://youtu.be/6hJtEWTUfhU 14:07 - Ed Yardeni Interview Highlights | Full Interview: https://youtu.be/WHxz9qGOz3g 30:26 - Lobo Tiggre Interview Highlights | Full Interview: https://youtu.be/RYYqUdTq3rQ 42:36 - Jordi Visser Interview Highlights | Full Interview: https://youtu.be/Xdl133CwiqU Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #MarketRecap #Investing #Bitcoin #Gold #Uranium #Economy #AI #Crypto #Inflation #FederalReserve #StockMarket #DeGlobalization #QuantitativeEasing #FinancialFreedom #ExpertInsights ____________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Could this decade redefine economic growth and markets? Ed Yardeni believes it might. He joins James Connor to unpack his prediction of record highs for the S&P 500, driven by revolutionary advancements in AI, humanoids, and productivity. Ed also explains why a long-anticipated recession has not been forthcoming, as the U.S. economy has showcased remarkable resilience, supported by robust markets and technological advances. However, risks like speculative market bubbles and policy missteps loom large. Learn how technological innovation, productivity gains, pro-growth policies, and bullish markets could lead us to call this decade the Roaring 2020s! Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's trusted financial advisors at https://bit.ly/3Zhpg8t Chapters: 1:06 - Market Outlook: Bold Predictions for 2025 4:29 - Trump's Second Term: Policies Shaping the Economy 7:47 - Tariff Tensions: Implications for Trade and Growth 13:09 - The 333 Plan: Ambitious Goals or Wishful Thinking? 18:14 - Balancing the Books: Cutting Deficits Amid Tax Cuts 20:16 - Oil, Energy, and Geopolitics: What's Next? 24:26 - Could Inflation Heat Up in 2025? 29:17 - The Fed's Gambit: Rate Cuts and Economic Resilience 37:10 - Irrational Exuberance: Bubbles, Bananas, and Bitcoin 43:00 - Ed Yardeni's Investing Advice: Stay Long, for Now Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #StockMarket #EconomicGrowth #AI #Tariffs #Volatility #Technology #Tech #Recession #EdYardeni #Economy # #Productivity #USEconomy #TradeWars Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On the last trading day of November, Carl Quintanilla, David Faber and Sara Eisen discussed the markets wrapping up a bullish month for stocks. Can the upward momentum continue into 2025? Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni joined the conversation. Black Friday also in the spotlight: A live report from a mall on the shopping action, how Apple and Amazon are positioned for the holidays, plus auto dealerships' push to lure car buyers. Also in focus: The FTC opens a broad antitrust probe into Microsoft, More reaction to President-elect Trump's tariff threats, why chip equipment makers are in rally mode. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
After waiting over three years for "one of the worst recessions ever anticipated that never happened," Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says that the economy is now moving forward without much recession worry, buoyed by consumer spending — especially from Baby Boomers — and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve that he considered mostly unnecessary. Yardeni sees the economy going through another "Roaring 20s" period, and while the one a century ago ended in the Great Depression, he does think that outcome is not inevitable provided the government can keep debt and deficit levels under control while riding out the benefits of the "Digital Revolution" that includes all of the excitement around artificial intelligence and technology. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager at Vineyard Global Advisors says the market's technicals are showing all green lights for a continuing bull market, and investors should lean in and treat downturns as buying opportunities. Dilley makes a case for the Standard & Poor's 500 to reach 7,500, getting as high as 6,400 by year's end, with only "normal pullbacks" on the road to that higher level. Plus, we revisit a recent conversation with Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments — manager of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals — on why gold has worked better as a geo-political hedge than as a buffer against inflation.
Nov 21, 2024 – So far this decade, the stock market has experienced something close to a "Roaring 20s," and our next guest has been among the most bullish voices on Wall Street, sharing this forecast with us in previous years. Today, we'll dive into...
Yardeni Research President, Chief Investment Strategist & Founder Ed Yardeni discusses how Trump's second term could push the "Roaring 2020's" stock market into the 2030's. Yardeni poke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Renowned economist Ed Yardeni joins me on Lead-Lag Live to unpack the roaring market trends and economic shifts of our time. Known for his bullish perspective, Ed sheds light on the resilience of the US economy, drawing fascinating parallels to historic periods like the 1920s and 1990s. We explore why expansions often last longer than recessions and how this outlook aligns with current market dynamics, especially the persistent appeal of large-cap stocks amidst a small-cap earnings stagnation. We'll navigate the intricate dance of market expectations with a focus on the Federal Reserve's maneuvers and the geopolitical undercurrents affecting gold prices. Our conversation critiques the concentration risk within the tech sector, reminiscent of the late 1990s, and delves into the realm of antitrust worries and fiscal policy's unpredictable impacts. Tune in to hear our insights on the necessity of maintaining objectivity in investment strategies, regardless of political climates, and how to construct a portfolio resilient to inflation, inspired by Mark Faber's risk parity model.In our exploration of global economic shifts, we discuss the US market's impressive performance since 2010 and its resilience in the face of global uncertainties, with a nod to India's emerging strength. Despite predictions of recession due to aggressive monetary tightening, the US economy's surprising robustness is noteworthy. We ponder the potential continuity of the current bull market into the decade's end and the risks of overheating, while also considering the influence of social media in shaping investment strategies. Join us for an enriching conversation that promises to expand your understanding of our evolving economic landscape.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show
Does a slower Fed mean smaller gains for stocks? Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, Newedge's Cameron Dawson and Virtus' Joe Terranova debate where they stand. Plus, T. Rowe Price's Sebastein Page tells us why he is looking for opportunities to take on more risk right now. And, Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon reveal how they are positioning into year-end.
Long-time market researcher Ed Yardeni believes "the economy is doing absolutely fine" without rate cuts. Despite noting a slight possibility of re-flation, Ed thinks further cuts would do more harm than good. As for geopolitical risks, he points to the U.S. extending its oil drilling capabilities as a hedge to keep risks at bay. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting. We covered a wide range of topics, including: Ed's outlook for inflation and the economy Why he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock market His thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expect The characteristics that make a good economic forecaster The potential impact of AI on the economy His views on the upcoming election and its market implications The long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocks Ed's approach to sector allocation and market breadth SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
One day after stocks kicked off September in sell-off mode, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer explored how investors should navigate this market now. The anchors drilled down on what's ahead for Nvidia. The chipmaker lost $279 billion in market cap on Tuesday -- and reportedly received a subpoena from the Justice Department in relation to an AI antitrust probe. Also in focus: "Red" chips, Dollar Tree tumbles on a Q2 miss and cites "immense pressures" on consumers, why strategist Ed Yardeni remains bullish on the market, earnings bright spots. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Interview recorded - 21st of August, 2024On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Ed Yardeni. Dr Ed is the President of Yardeni Research.During our conversation we spoke about his thoughts on the economy, potential for it being a new roaring twenties, productivity, normalisation of growth, interest rate decisions, impacts on markets and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:40 - Thoughts on global economy?4:40 - Why rolling recessions?11:04 - Employment data revision?13:08 - Illegal migration impact?15:05 - Normalisation of growth?17:16 - Interest Rates & Monetary policy22:38 - FED for a day?27:08 - Higher interest rates on deficit?30:26 - 90's soft landing again?32:07 - What will the FED do?34:05 - Which industries will perform well?38:11 - One message to takeaway from conversation?Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategies and asset-allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank's US equities division in New York City. He was also the Chief Economist of CJ Lawrence, Prudential-Bache Securities, and EF Hutton. He taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and was an economistwith the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C.Dr. Ed earned his PhD in economics from Yale University in 1976, havingcompleted his doctoral dissertation under Nobel Laureate James Tobin. Previously, he received a master's degree in international relations from Yale. He completed his undergraduate studies magna cum laude at Cornell University.Dr. Ed is frequently quoted in the financial press, including The Wall StreetJournal, the Financial Times, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Barron's. He was dubbed “Wall Street Seer” in a Barron's cover story. He appears frequently on CNBC, Bloomberg Television, and Fox Business. See Dr. Ed's market calls as reported in the financial press.Dr Ed Yardeni:Website - https://yardeni.com/Twitter - https://x.com/yardeniQuicktakes - https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/YouTube - @YardeniResearch WTFinance -Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes -https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-fatseas-761066103/Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
This week began with strong bearish sentiment across the economy and markets. But with positive economic updates and a stock market rebound, could the bulls be back? Join Andrew Brill as he dives into these developments and more in this week's Wealthion Weekly Market Recap, featuring insights from our latest interview guests! This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/Wealthion and get on your way to being your best self. Timestamps: 0:00- Andrew Brill's Intro 0:18- Speak Up - Raoul Pal: This Market Sell-Off Is A Gift https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijSb94ZGikk 5:58- Why the US Economy is Unstoppable with Ed Yardeni https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxQkQANAYAk 15:55- Market Mayhem: What You Need to Know https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuiLfv_r6FA 21:15- Navigating Volatility: Adam Johnson on Inflation, Rate Cuts, and AI Stocks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifPHvNneNDs 35:38- How to Overcome High Interest Rates in Real Estate | Dave Meyer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qn1VtSWq8ho 43:33- Closing Connect with us online: Website: www.wealthion.com X: https://x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #MacroEconomics #Investing #Crypto #CryptoNews #Bitcoin #BitcoinNews #CryptoTrading #MarketInsights #Liquidity #Fed #InterestRates #StockMarket #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Money
The longtime Fed watcher talks about the road to S&P 8000, and the outlook for the national debt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of Wealthion, host James Connor is joined by Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, to discuss the current state of the global economy and financial markets. Despite recent turbulence, Yardeni provides a surprisingly optimistic outlook, highlighting the resilience of the US economy and his predictions for the coming years. With insights on the Fed's policies, the impact of inflation, and the potential for a market rally, Yardeni's analysis offers invaluable guidance for investors navigating these uncertain times. Did you enjoy this episode? Hit the like button and let us know in the comments! This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/Wealthion and get on your way to being your best self. Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:37 - Discussion on the Federal Reserve and Inflation 04:25 - Fed Policy and Market Impact 05:51 - Predictions for Interest Rate Cuts 07:21 - Unemployment Rate and Job Market Analysis 11:28 - Impact of Government Policies and Global Economy 19:22 - Concerns About US Federal Debt 24:49 - Japan's Economic Situation and Global Impact 31:18 - US Economy Compared to Global Markets 35:25 - Market Valuations and Predictions 40:50 - Closing
Jul 25, 2024 – Dr. Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research, speaks with FS Insider about his current market outlook, how much farther he thinks US stocks could correct from here, and whether it's time...
After another record-setting day for stocks,, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber explored market reaction to the Consumer Price Index. It shows inflation fell in June from the previous month. Is a September Fed rate cut in the cards? In a CNBC Exclusive at the Allen & Co. conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and Julia Boorstin discussed the business of football in the streaming era. Also in focus: Delta shares tumble on guidance and oversupply, what PepsiCo's CEO said about his company's earnings, Pfizer rises on its experimental obesity pill, Ed Yardeni boosts his year-end S&P 500target to 5800. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Consuelo Mack stops by The Business Brew to discuss her career in financial media. Consuelo hosts the show WealthTrack, a show Bill has watched and/or listened to for years. This conversation will help Consuelo's fans understand more about her early career and how she developed WealthTrack. Bill was very happy Consuelo said yes to coming on the show. His only regret is messing up Ed Hyman and Ed Yardeni in the conversation. He hopes both Eds forgive him. We hope you enjoy the conversation!
Will the stock market rise another 50% by 2030? Dr. Ed Yardeni says it could, citing tech-fueled productivity gains. Join me, Dr. Ed, and his colleague Eric Wallerstein (formerly of the New York Fed and The Wall Street Journal) as we discuss interest rates, inflation, and the housing market, plus which market sectors investors should focus on now.
Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz speaks to Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategies and asset-allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank's US equities division in New York City. He taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the US Treasury Department in Washington, D.C. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As I often remind subscribers to Faster, Please!, predictions are hard, especially about the future. The economic boom of the 1990s came as a surprise to most economists. Equally surprising was that it ended so soon. Neither of these events caught Ed Yardeni off-guard. Some forecasters, Yardeni included, anticipated a new Roaring '20s for this century… only to be interrupted by the pandemic. But is it too late for this prediction to become a reality? According to Yardeni, not at all.Ed Yardeni is president of Yardeni Research, and he previously served as chief investment strategist at a number of investment companies, including Deutche Bank. He has additionally held positions at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and US Treasury Department. For more economic insights and investment guidance, visit yardeni.com.In This Episode* The '90s Internet boom (1:25)* The Digital Revolution (5:01)* The new Roaring '20s (9:00)* A cautious Federal Reserve (14:24)* Speedbumps to progress (18:18)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversationThe '90s Internet boom (1:25)Pethokoukis: Statistically speaking, the PC Internet boom that you first started writing about back in the early '90s ended in 2004, 2005. How surprising was that to economists, investors, policy makers? I, to this day, have a report, a 2000 report, from Lehman Brothers that predicted, as far as the eye could see, we would have rapid growth, rapid productivity growth for at least another decade. Now, of course, Lehman didn't make it another decade. Was that a surprise to people that we didn't have an endless productivity boom coming out of the '90s?Yardeni: I think it definitely was a surprise. I mean, it was surprising both ways. Not too many people expected to see a productivity boom in the second half of the 1990s, which is what we had. I did, as an economist on Wall Street. More importantly, Alan Greenspan was a big promoter of the idea that the technology revolution would in fact lead to better productivity growth and that that might mean better economic growth and lower inflation. And it didn't look that way for a while; then suddenly the Bureau of Economic Analysis went back and revised the data for the late 1990s and, lo and behold, it turned out that there was a productivity boom. And then it all kind of fizzled out, and it raises the question, why did that happen? Why was it such a short lived productivity boom? And the answer is—well, let me give you a personal anecdote.I worked at Deutsche Bank in New York in the late 1990s, and I had to be very careful walking down the corridors of Deutsche Bank in midtown Manhattan not to trip over Dell boxes. Everybody was getting a Dell box, everybody was getting the Dell boxes loaded up with the Windows Office. And when you think back on what that was able to do in terms of productivity, if you had a lot of secretaries on Selectric typewriters, Word could obviously increase productivity. If you had a lot of bookkeepers doing spreadsheets, Excel could obviously increase productivity. But other than that, there wasn't really that much productivity to be had from the technology at the time. So again, where did that productivity boom come from? It couldn't have been just secretaries and bookkeepers. Now the answer is that the boxes themselves were measured as output, and so output per man hour increased dramatically. It doesn't take that many workers to produce Dell boxes and Windows Office and Windows software. So as a result of that, we had this big boom in the technology output that created its own productivity boom, but it didn't really have the widespread application to all sorts of business model the way today's evolution of the technology boom is, in fact, capable of doing.What you've just described, I think, is the explanation by, for instance, Robert Gordon, Northwestern University, that we saw a revolution, but it was a narrow revolution.It was the beginning! It was the beginning of a revolution. It was the Technology Revolution. It started in the 1990s and it's evolved, it's not over, it's ongoing. I think a big development in that revolution was the cloud. What the cloud allowed you to do was really increase productivity in technology itself, because you didn't need to have several hundred people in the IT department. Now, with the cloud, one person can upgrade the software on hundreds of computers, and now we're renting software so that it automatically upgrades, so that's been a big contribution to productivity.The Digital Revolution (5:01)So perhaps I spoke too soon. I talked about that boom—that '90s boom—ending. Perhaps I should have said it was more of a pause, because it seems what we're seeing now, as you've described it, is a new phase of the Digital Revolution—perhaps a broader phase—and, to be clear, if I understand what you've been speaking about and writing about, this isn't an AI story, this predates what we're seeing in the data now, it predates ChatGPT, when do you date this new phase beginning—and you mentioned one catalyst perhaps being the cloud, so—when did it begin and, again, what are the data markers that you've been looking at?I don't remember the exact date, but I think it was 2011 where my little investment advisory got ourselves on the Amazon cloud, and that's been a tremendous source of productivity for us, it saves us a lot of money. We used to have a couple of servers on a server farm in the old days, and every now and then it would go down and we'd have to reach somebody on the server farm and say, “Would you mind turning it on and off?” Remember the word “reboot?” I don't remember the word “reboot” being used in quite some time. Amazon's never gone down, as far as I can recall. I think they've always had their systems in Virginia, and they had a backup somewhere overseas, but it's always worked quite well for us.But now we're finding with some of the other software that's available now, we can actually cut back on our Amazon costs and use some of these other technologies. There's lots of technologies that are very user-friendly, very powerful, and they apply themselves to all sorts of different businesses, and, as you said, it's not just AI. I think the cloud—let's put it around 2011 or so—was a huge development because it did allow companies to do information processing in a much more efficient way, and the software gets automatically updated, and with what it used to take hundreds of people in an IT department to do, now you can do it with just one, which is what we, in fact, have, just one person doing it all for us. But I would say that's as good a point as any. But along the way here, what's really changed is the power of the software that's available, and how cheap it is, and how you can rent it now instead of having to own it.That's a fantastic example, and, of course, we want to see these sort of examples at some point reflected in the data. And going through some of your writings, one period that you were very focused on was, we may have seen a bottom, maybe at the end of 2015, before the pandemic, where we saw the slowest, I think 20-quarter average… annual average growth rate of productivity.0.5 annual rate.But by 2019, leading into the pandemic, it tripled. Is the story of that tripling, is it the cloud? And that certainly has to be one reason why you, among other people, thought that we might see a new Roaring '20s, right into the teeth of the pandemic, unfortunately.Well, it's not so unfortunate, I mean, clearly nobody saw the pandemic coming, but we weathered the storm very, very well, and I don't think we can come to any conclusion about productivity during the pandemic, it was all over the place. At first, when we were on lockdown, it actually soared because we were still producing a lot with fewer workers, and then it took a dive, but we're now back up to two percent. We had a really, really good year last year in productivity. The final three quarters of last year, we saw above-trend growth in productivity. And so we're already now back up to two percent, which, again, compared to 0.5, is certainly moving in the right direction, and I don't see any particular reason why that number couldn't go to three-and-a-half, four-and-a-half percent per year kind of growth—which sounds delusional unless you look back at the chart of productivity and see that that's actually what productivity booms do: They get up to something like three-and-a-half to four-and-a-half percent growth, not just on a one-quarter basis, but on a 20-quarter trailing basis at an annual rate.The new Roaring '20s (9:00)This forecast predates the word “generative AI,” predates ChatGPT, and, in fact, if I understand your view, it's even broader than information technology. So tell me a bit about your broader Roaring '20s thesis and the technological underpinnings of that.One of the developments we've seen here, which has been somewhat disconcerting, is the challenge to globalization. I'm a big believer in free trade, and the free trade creates more economic growth, but, on the other hand, we have to be realistic and realize that China hasn't been playing by the rules of the game. And so now, as a result, we're seeing a lot of production moving out of China to other countries, and we're seeing a lot of on-shoring in the United States, so we're building state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities that are full of robots and automation that I think are going to bring manufacturing productivity back quite significantly.Everybody seems to be of the opinion that the reason productivity is weak is because of services. It's actually manufacturing. What happened is, when China joined the World Trade Organization back at the end of 2001—December 11th, 2001, to be exact—manufacturers said hasta la vista to the United States, and we've had absolutely no increase in industrial production capacity since that time, since 2001. And so companies basically gave up on trying to do anything, either expand capacity or improve productivity of manufacturing here, when they could do it so much more cheaply over in China.I think what's really the most important thing that's changed here is, demographically, we've run out of workers. Certainly even in China, we don't have a growth in the working-age population. We don't have a growth in the working-age population here. And when it comes to skilled labor, that's even more the case, so there's tremendous incentive and pressure on companies to figure out, well, how do we deal with an environment where our business is pretty good, but we can't find the workers to meet all the demand? And the answer has to be productivity. Technology is part of the solution. Managing for productivity is another part of the solution. Giving workers more skills to be more productive is a very good use of money, and it makes workers sticky, it makes them want to stay with you because you're going to have to pay them more because they're more knowledgeable, and you want to pay them more because you want to keep them.I think a big part of the productivity story really has to do with the demographic story. China, of course, accelerated all that with the One Child Policy that, as a result, I kind of view China as the world's largest nursing home. They just don't have the workforce that they used to have. Japan doesn't have the workforce. Korea, Taiwan, all these countries… If you want to find cheap, young labor, it's still in Africa and in India, but there are all sorts of issues with how you do business in these countries. It's not that easy. It's not as simple as just saying, “Well, let's just go there.” And so I think we are seeing a tremendous push to increase productivity to deal with the worldwide labor shortage.We have three really good quarters of productivity growth and, as you mentioned, economists are always very cautious about those productivity numbers because of revisions, they're volatile. But if this is something real and sustainable, it should also reflect in other parts of the economy. We should see good capital investment numbers for here on out if this is a real thing.I think not only capital investment, but also real wages. Productivity is fairy dust. I mean it's a win-win-win situation. With better-than-expected productivity, you get better-than-expected, real GDP, you get lower-than-expected unit labor costs, which, by the way, unit labor costs, which reflect hourly wages offset by productivity, they're under two percent—or they're around two percent, I should say more accurately—and that's highly correlated with the CPI, so the underlying inflation rate has already come down to where the Fed wants it to be. This is not a forecast, this is where we are right now with unit labor costs. So there's a very strong correlation between productivity growth and the growth of inflation-adjusted compensation. So you can take average hourly earnings, you can take hourly compensation…There are a bunch of measures of wages, and divide them by the consumption deflator, and you'll see on a year-over-year basis that the correlation is extremely high. And, theoretically—it's the only thing I learned when I went to college in economics that ever made any sense to me, and that is—people in a competitive marketplace—it doesn't have to be perfectly competitive, but in a relatively competitive marketplace—people get paid their real wage. The productivity the workers have, they get paid in their real wages, and we've seen, for all the talk about how “standards of living have stagnated for decades,” if you look at average hourly earnings divided by the consumption deflator, it's been going up 1.4 percent since 1995. That's a doubling of the standard of living every 40 years. That's pretty good progress. And if productivity grows faster than that, you'll get even a better increase in real wages.If we don't have workers, if there's a shortage of workers—though, obviously, immigration puts a whole different spin on these things—but for what we know now in terms of the workers that are available that are allowed to work, they are getting paid higher real wages. I know that prices have gone up, but people sometimes forget that wages have also gone up quite a bit. But again, it's fairy dust: You get better real growth, you get lower inflation, you get real wages going up, and you get better profit margins. Everybody wins.A cautious Federal Reserve (14:24)In the '90s, we had a Fed chairman who was super cautious about assuming a productivity boom, but eventually saw the reality of it and acted accordingly. It seems to me that we have a very similar such situation where we have a Federal Reserve chairman who is certainly aware of these numbers, but seems to me, at this point, certainly reluctant to make decisions based on those numbers, but you would expect that to change.Yeah, well, I mean if you just look at the summary of economic projections that the Federal Open Market Committee… that comes out on a quarterly basis reflecting the consensus of Fed Chair Powell's committee that determines monetary policy, they're looking for real GDP growth of less than two percent per year for the next couple of years, and they're obviously not anticipating any improvement in productivity. So I think you're right, I think Fed Chair Powell is very much aware that productivity can change everything; and, in fact, he's talked about productivity, he knows the equation. He says, “Look, it's okay to have wages growing three percent if inflation's two percent.” Then he implied, therefore, that productivity is growing one percent. So he's basically in the one percent camp, recognizing that, if productivity is more than that, then four percent wage growth is perfectly fine and acceptable and non-inflationary. But at this point he's, in terms of his pronouncements, he's sticking to the kind of standard line of economists, which is, maybe we'll get one percent, and if we get one percent and the Fed gets inflation down, let's say to only two-and-a-half percent, then wages can grow three-and-a-half percent, and right now wages are growing at a little bit above. I think we're growing more like four percent, so the wage numbers aren't there yet, but they could be the right numbers if, in fact, productivity is making a comeback.If we hit productivity gains of the sort you've talked about—three percent, four percent by the end of the decade—that is a radically different-looking economy than what the Fed, or the CBO, or even a lot of Wall Street firms are talking about. So it's not just this statistic will be different; we're looking at really something very different. I would assume a much higher stock market; I'm not sure what interest rates look like, but what does that world look like in 2030?These are all good questions, they're the ones I'm grappling with. I mean, should interest rates be lower or should they be higher? It's the so-called real interest rates, so if the economy can live with a Fed funds rate of, let's say five and a half percent—five and a quarter, five and a half percent, which is what it is now—and the bond yield at four and a half percent and the economy is doing perfectly fine and inflation's coming down, and it's all because productivity is making comeback, then those rates are fine. They're doing their job, they're allocating capital in a reasonable fashion, and capital is going to get allocated to where capital should go. You mentioned before that, in order to increase productivity, we are going to need more capital investments.Here the Fed has raised interest rates dramatically, and most of the economists said, “Oh, that's going to lead to a big drop in capital,” because capital spending is dependent on interest rates, and that hasn't happened at all, really, because the technology capital spending—which now, in current dollars, technology capital spending accounts for about 50 percent of capital spending in nominal terms. You can't do it in real terms because there's an indexing problem. But in nominal terms, half of capital spending is technology. And by the way, that's an understatement because that's information technology, hardware, it's software and R&D. It doesn't even include industrial machinery, which is mostly technology, hardware and software these days. And even the trucking industry, the truck is sort of the device, and then there's a software that runs the device logistics. There's so many areas of the economy that have become very high-tech that people still think of as a low-tech industry.Speedbumps to progress (18:18)If this doesn't happen. Well, I suppose one thing we could say may have happened is that we've really overestimated these technologies and they're not as transformative. But let me give you two other things that people might point to as being—and you've written a bit about these—that could be speed bumps or barriers. One: debt, possible debt crisis. And two: this energy revolution, climate change transition, which we really have a lot of government involvement and a lot of government making decisions about allocating resources. So what is the risk that those two things could be a slow things down, speed bump, or what have you?There's three issues that you're raising. One is sort of the private sector issue of whether a lot of this artificial intelligence and technology stuff is hype, and it's not going to have the impact on productivity. The other one, as you mentioned, is the two government issues, government's meddling in the climate change policies, and then the government having this irresponsible fiscal excesses.With regards to artificial intelligence, even though I should be a cheerleader on this, because I should say, “See, I told you so…” I have been telling people I told you so because I said, I'll tell you when the stock market started to discount the Roaring '20s was November 30th, 2022 when Open AI introduced ChatGPT, and that's when these AI stocks went crazy. A week later I signed up for the $20 a month version of ChatGPT, figuring, “This is great! I'm not going to have to work anymore. This is going to do all my writing for me. I'll just ask it the question and say, ‘What do you think we should be writing about this? Go ahead and write about it.'” Well, it took me more time to correct all the errors for what it produced than it would've taken me just to write the damn thing.So I kind of cooled off to chat GPT, and I come to the conclusion that, from what I see right now in terms of what is available to the public and what's tied to the internet, it's really autofill on speed and the steroids. You know when you type Word and sometimes it guesses what you're going to say next? That's what this thing does at the speed of light. But, you know, “haste makes waste,” as Benjamin Franklin used to say, and it makes a lot of mistakes. And, by the way, garbage in, garbage out. It could create even more garbage on the internet because I've seen situations where it starts quoting its own sources that would never have existed in the first place. So there's some really funky stuff when you have it in the public domain.But I think that when you have it sort of segmented off and it only has the data that you need for your specific industry, and it's not polluted by other the open source ability to take any data, I think it may very well work very well. But it's basically just a really fast, lightning-speed calculations. So I think it has lots of potential in that regard, but I think there is a certain amount of hype. But look, so much money is being spent in this area. I can't believe it's all going to go for naught. I mean, we saw a lot of money spent in the late 1990s on internet and dotcoms and all that. The internet's still here, but the dotcoms are gone.With regards to the government policies, I have this very simplistic view that it's amazing how well this country has done despite Washington. Washington just keeps meddling and meddling, it just keeps picking our pockets, keeps interfering, comes up with industrial policies that, to a large extent, don't work. And yet, the economy continues to do well because working stiffs like you and me and people listening in, that's what we do for a living: we work. We don't have time for politics. So the politicians have plenty of time to figure out how to pick our pockets. Well, we have to just figure out, “Okay, given their meddling, how do we make our businesses better, notwithstanding these challenges.” Maybe it's really more my hope that we somehow in the private sector figure out how to keep doing what we're doing so well, including increasing productivity, in the face of the challenges that the government poses with its policies.But then, if we are successful in the private sector at creating good productivity growth that gives you better real GDP growth, that real growth is one way to reduce the debt burden. It doesn't make it go away and it would be a lot better if we didn't have it, but some of these projections of how this debt is going to eat us all up may be too pessimistic about their assumptions for economic growth. But look… I guess I had a happy childhood, so I tend to be an optimist, but I can't say anything good at all about this deficit problem. And we did get a little glimpse in August, September, October, of what happens when the bond market starts to worry about something like supply. It worried about it for three months, and then lower inflation and less supply of long-term bonds helped to rally the bond market. But here we are back at four and a half percent, and if we do have some more fears about inflation coming back, then we could very well have a debt crisis more imminently. People like Ray Dalio has been saying that we're under verge of getting it. I think it's an issue, but I don't think it's an issue that's going to be calamitous at this time.The problems people talk about, you have the skepticism about free enterprise, or the skepticism about trade, and immigration. I would like to see what this country looks like in 2030 with the economic scenario you've just outlined: Strong real wage growth. Maybe it's too simplistic, but I think people being able to see in their everyday lives, big gains year after year, I think the national mood would be considerably different.Well, I think, even now, if you look at real consumption per household, it's $128,000, it's at an all-time record high. And yeah, I guess the rich might be gluttons and might eat more than the rest of us, and maybe they have bigger and more houses and cars, but there just aren't enough of them to really explain how it could possibly be that real consumption per household is at an all-time record high. And I know that's materialistic, but I can't think of a better way to measure the standard of living than looking at real consumption per household: All-time record high.Faster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Micro Reads▶ Business/ EconomicsMeta, in Its Biggest A.I. Push, Places Smart Assistants Across its Apps - NYTGoogle streamlines structure to speed up AI efforts - FTTesla's Layoffs Won't Solve Its Growing Pains - Wired▶ PolicyPut Growth Back on the Political Agenda - WSJRegulate AI? How US, EU and China Are Going About It - BbergThree ways the US could help universities compete with tech companies on AI innovation - MIT▶ AI/DigitalThe AI race is generating a dual reality - FTSearching for the Next Big AI Breakthrough at the TED Conference - BbergThese photos show AI used to reinterpret centuries-old graffiti - NSEnvironmental Damage Could Cost You a Fifth of Your Income Over the Next 25 Years - WiredAI now surpasses humans in almost all performance benchmarks - New Atlas▶ Biotech/HealthA new understanding of tinnitus and deafness could help reverse both - New ScientistBeyond Neuralink: Meet the other companies developing brain-computer interfaces - MIT▶ RoboticsHello, Electric Atlas: Boston Dynamics introduces a fully electric humanoid robot that “exceeds human performance” - IEEE Spectrum▶ Space/TransportationNASA may alter Artemis III to have Starship and Orion dock in low-Earth orbit - Ars▶ Up Wing/Down WingTechnological risks are not the end of the world - Science▶ Substacks/NewslettersFive things to be optimistic about in America today - NoahpinionWho Governs the Internet? - HyperdimensionalMeta is Surprisingly Relevant in Generative AI - AI SupremacyLarry Summers isn't worried about secular stagnation anymore - Slow BoringFaster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe
CPI came in above expectations and stocks fell while yields rose. Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni and BD8 Capital's Barbara Doran on how to play the market action while Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta on what today means for the Fed. Zelman & Associates' Alan Ratner on housing stocks slide. Ibrahim AlHusseini on Tesla's slide.
Stocks have delivered a great ride over the past year and a half. That has attracted retail investors back into the markets with a vengeance. Household equity ownership is currently near an all-time high. Does this bull market still have plenty of room left to run? And if so, what are the skeptics misunderstanding? For insight, we have the good fortune to turn to Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research. While not dismissive of the many potential risks to the market's momentum, Ed maintains price targets on the S&P 500 index of 5,400 for 2024 (we're nearly there, so he may need to raise it soon), 6,000 for 2025 and 6,500 for 2026. Follow Ed at https://yardeni.com/ or https://yardeniquicktakes.com/ SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #ai #cloudcomputing
Influential economist and strategist Ed Yardeni tackles why AI isn't intelligent, economists have been so wrong and the bull market could continue. WEALTHTRACK episode 2040 broadcast on March 30, 2024. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support
In this conversation, Liz Ann Sonders interviews Dr. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. They discuss this unique economic cycle and the concept of rolling recessions. Ed explains his optimism in the face of widespread pessimism about an impending recession. Yardeni also introduces the idea of "Postmodern Monetary Theory" and its impact on the economy. He emphasizes the importance of the labor market, employment numbers, and consumer spending in preventing recessions. Yardeni discusses the role of productivity and artificial intelligence in shaping the future economy and he highlights concerns about market sentiment and potential risks, such as geopolitical crises and inflation.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook on the coming week's economic data.You can learn more about Dr. Ed Yardeni on his website, Yardeni.comOn Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For additional information, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.(0324-UB2T)
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, speaks on the Fed's plans to lower interest rates and current state of US Economy with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa AbramowiczSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What stocks are going to lead the next leg of the bull market? Josh Brown from Ritholtz Wealth Management, Solus' Dan Greenhaus and Ayako Yoshioka from Wealth Enhancement Group give their predictions. Plus, PIMCO's Erin Browne tells us how she is navigating inflation and where she is seeing big opportunity in stocks right now. And, Ed Yardeni breaks down how he is playing this rally – and the one thing that he thinks could be a big risk to the market in the months ahead.
Part 1 of 2: Leading bond analyst Martin Fridson explains his tested strategy for identifying top-performing stocks for the year ahead. WEALTHTRACK #2037 broadcast on March 8, 2024 --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/wealthtrack/support
The S&P 500 nearly topping 5,000 in today's session. Ritholtz Wealth Management's Josh Brown and Senior Market Commentator Mike Santoli break down the crucial final moments of trade. Plus, Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni drills down on his forecast for stocks as we sit at record highs. And, Laura Martin from Needham tells us what she is watching from Disney's report in Overtime.
The rally is still rolling on … even as some are now wondering whether stocks are starting to look a little lofty. Ed Yardeni – who is still bullish – is raising some of those key questions. He makes his case. Plus, star analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush breaks down what he is watching from Tesla's report in Overtime today. And, Kristina Partsinevelos reveals what investors need to be watching from IBM's report.
Dec 13, 2023 – FS Insider sits down with the well-known economist and market strategist Dr. Ed Yardeni to talk about his outlook for the US economy and stock market over the 2024 and 2025 period. Ed discusses the amount of money...
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it mean mean for equity markets. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Edward on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis29:08 - Will AI save us?32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?41:40 - The baby boom generation -...
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