The Evidence-Based Investor

Robin Powell's guest n this episode we're discussing the bear market with the world-renowned behavioural scientist Meir Statman. He's the Glenn Klimek Professor of Finance at Santa Clara University. What happens in the minds of investors when markets fall? And how can we stop ourselves acting irrationally? Professor Statman has some fascinating insights on those questions and more. And, you may be pleased to hear, even he is not immune to feeling anxious when stock prices head south. He also has some very interesting advice for young people tempted to invest in cryptocurrencies.

Neil Woodford is Britain's best-known fund manager. For many years his track record was very impressive. He was lauded in the media. He was even referred to by the BBC as "the man who can't stop making money.” But then things began to go wrong and, three years ago, the wheels came off in spectacular fashion, when his flagship Equity Income fund was suspended.   The industry, of course, as the industry usually does, did really rather well out of it. Woodford Equity Income was Britain's biggest fund launch. The fund earned a fortune for Woodford himself and for the many brokers and platforms who helped to promote it. The outcome for investors, however, was rather different. More than 300,000 people — many of them near, or already in, retirement — lost more than £1 billion between them in one of the biggest financial scandals of modern times. Robin Powell's guests on this episode are two highly respected journalists who have each written a book on the Woodford saga — Owen Walker and David Ricketts.

Investors need to be realistic.. and that means accepting the strong possibility that returns will be lower in the future than they have been in the past. Why? Well, equities rose to all-time highs as the economy recovered from the Covid crisis. And the higher the price you pay for a security, the lower your expected return going forwards. So, what other evidence is there that future returns will be lower? And, if it's true, what if anything can, or should, investors do about it? In the latest episode, Robin Powell talks to Antti Ilmanen, an investment strategist at AQR Capital Management in Greenwich, Connecticut. He's the author of a new book, Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least.

We live in interesting times. War in Ukraine, energy worries, inflation and a possible global recession. It's no surprise, then, that stock markets around the world have fallen considerably, and there seems to be no end in sight to the current volatility. We wouldn't be human if "headline anxiety" didn't have an impact on us. Robin Powell's guest on this episode is Craig Lazzara from S&P Dow Jones Indices. Craig puts recent market volatility into historical perspective.

Robin's guest on this episode is Spencer Jakab, an investment columnist on the Wall Street Journal, who has just written a book on the GameStop phenomenon, called The Revolution That Wasn't. The Texas-based video game and consumer electronics and retailer hit the financial headlines in January last year. The reason was a short squeeze that resulted in a 1,500% increase in the GameStop share price over the course of two weeks. “GameStop Mania” was mainly attributed to a coordinated effort by the Reddit community r/wallstreetbets. At the time, the episode was seen as an example of the growing power and influence of ordinary investors. The truth, says Spencer Jakab, was very different. So what are the lessons from GameStop? What can investors, regulators and the investment industry learn from it?

Robin Powell's guest on this episode is our guest today is Robin Wigglesworth, global finance correspondent for the Financial Times. Wigglesworth is the author of Trillions, a new book on the past, present and future of index investing. Currently living in Norway, he covers macroeconomics, finance, investing and markets internationally for the FT.

As Cathie Wood's ERK Innovation fund and technology stocks in general continue to struggle, Robin Powell asks Larry Swedroe whether we're in the early stages of a market crash. Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham certainly seems to think so. Last week he warned that stocks are in a "superbubble", and that once interest rates return to normal and realism returns to an overzealous market, the bubble will pop. Perhaps it has popped already?

The evidence shows that we start learning about money very early in life. So what can parents do to help their children develop a health relationship with money and good financial habits? Financial educator and author Will Rainey has specialist expertise in this area. Here he suggests practical ideas for parents of children of all ages.

Every year the financial markets provide us with lessons on the prudent investment strategy. They frequently offer remedial courses, covering lessons they taught in previous years. That's why one of Larry Swedroe's favourite sayings is that there's nothing new in investing, only investment history you don't know. In this episode, Larry discusses with Robin Powell ten key investment lessons from the last 12 months.

Robin Powell interviews Larry Swedroe about Cathie Wood, the high-profile Wall Street fund manager who is currently making the headlines for all the wrong wrong reasons. Her flagship ARK Innovation ETF ended 2021 in a 40% drawdown that only worsened to nearly 50% in the first few days of January. So, is Cathie's Ark sinking? What, if anything, should Ark investors do now? Do Ark's current problems tell us anything about the current state of the global equity markets? And what are the lessons to learn for investors generally?

Few people predicted that global stock markets would bounce back as strongly as they did from the sharp market falls we saw in March 2020. Here we are, more than a year later, and most of the major markets are not far off all-time highs. So are we in a bubble? What are the warning signs to look out for? Are bubbles inevitable? And if so, is there anything investors can do about it? Robin Powell discusses all these issues and more with John Turner, Professor of Finance and Financial History at Queen's University, Belfast. Professor Turner is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and an editor of the Economic History Review. He's recently written a book, with William Quinn, called Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles.

It's been more than a year and-a-half since the Woodford Equity Income fund, run by the former “star” fund manager Neil Woodford, was suspended. Since then, investors in the fund, now called the LF Equity Income fund, have endured a frustrating time, with little apparent progress being made towards securing compensation for those affected. And we're still awaiting the findings of an inquiry into the affair from the UK regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority. We've been speaking to the journalist David Ricketts, who's written a new book on Woodford's spectacular fall from grace. It's called When the Fund Stops. In this interview we explore some key questions. Could Woodford's demise have been foreseen? Where exactly did he go wrong? Why wasn't more one to protect investors? Who's to blame? And will we see more Woodford-style scandals in the future?

In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, stock markets have fallen around the world. Our guest on this episode, Professor Elroy Dimson, is someone who understands more than just about anyone else alive today how financial markets have responded to economic shocks throughout history.

Why has excessive executive pay become such an issue around the world? What can be done about it? Why can't fund managers exert more of an influence over company boards when it comes to remuneration? And what about pay in the asset management industry? Why is it so high? And will we see pay come down? Robin Powell discusses all of these issues with Corinne Carr, Founder of PeopleNet, a London-based consultancy which specialises in responsible pay, and with Luke Hildyard, Executive Director at at the High Pay Centre.

George Kinder is known as the father of the financial life planning movement, which focuses not on financial products but on helping clients to identify their values and goals and to live life to the full. In this interview, George explains the life planning philosophy on more detail. He also discusses his interest in mindfulness and explains how a mindful attitude can help investors to recognise emotions such as fear and greed, and to stay focused and rational during periods of market volatility. Finally, he discusses the future of asset management and financial advice. It's time, he says, for a period of reflection by financial professionals. Until there's a proper fiduciary relationship between the professional and the client, he argues, the industry will continue to fail.

The financial adviser and investment writer Rick Ferri, a longstanding friend and admirer of the last Jack Bogle, discusses the great man's legacy. Rick, a former Marine Corps officer and fighter pilot, explains how how Bogle changed his life and how the Bogleheads — an organisation founded to promote the Bogle-s philosophy — continues to go from strength to strength. He also talks about his latest business venture — a pay-by-the-hour financial advice service.

Robin Powell talks to Ben Johnson, Director of Global ETF Research at Morningstar. Ben discusses the development of Morningstar's Active/ Passive Barometer and explains what it tells us. He talks about the importance of cost, the relative merits of ETFs and traditional index funds, and how, in his view, the term "index" has effectively become meaningless and is often a front for active strategies. He also explains why talk of passive investing undermining the smooth running of the markets is overblown. He then touches on corporate governance and why, in his view, passive portfolio managers are better placed than their active counterparts to hold company boards to account.

Robin interviews Matt Hall, co-founder of Hill Investment Group, based in St Louis, and PJ McDaniel, Director of Hillfolio, which is an automated investment service the firm has recently launched. Matt and PJ discuss the evolving robo-advice sector and the part that Hillfolio is playing in giving a wider section of the population access to an evidence-based investment portfolio. They also pay tribute to the late index fund pioneer Jack Bogle.

Robin Powell talks to Morningstar's Global Director of Manager Research, Jeff Ptak. Jeff explains Morningstar's “investors first” philosophy, and how the company has adhered to it through its 35-year history. It's an important principle, he says, that the “business” side of the operation is kept very separate from the research side. Jeff then goes on to discuss the various factors that do — and don't — help investors to predict future fund performance. He also discusses Morningstar's latest research on the effect of lower charges on fund returns, and encouraging signs, after decades of steady growth, that the fund industry is finally starting to contract.

Robin Powell talks to former active fund manager, Stephanie Griffiths, who used to work as an active fund manager in Toronto, but who decided there's a better and easier way to invest. She quit her job and, after careful research, chose to invest almost all her money in low-cost index funds. She has now written a book, Sit Still and Prosper, which shows people how to have a successful investment experience for very little effort.

Dr Moira Somers is a behavioural psychologist with a specialist expertise in procrastination. Here she tells Robin Powell why so many people put off investing for retirement and making important financial decisions. She also discusses how women invest differently to men, why investors need to be more self-compassionate, and why parents could be doing more to help their children to develop a healthy relationship with money.

Dr Tim Edwards from the London office of S&P Dow Jones Indices discusses SPIVA — the S&P Dow Jones Jones Active Versus Index scorecard — and what we can learn from it. He also talks about the growing trend towards self-indexing, as well as recent research he's conducted into momentum investing and equal-weight indices.

Adam Laird from Lyxor ETFs talks about the growing popularity of low-cost investing in the UK and Europe, and the role his company is playing.

Michael Batnick discusses his book "Big Mistakes - The Best Investors and their Worst Moments", live at Ritholtz Wealth Management and EBI West.

Ep 16: Dave Nadig on the extraordinary growth of the ETF by The Evidence-Based Investor

Hello and welcome to the latest TEBI Podcast, brought to you by The Evidence-Based Investor, in conjunction with Regis Media, Connecting advisers with clients. I'm Robin Powell and this is Episode 15. Our guest this week is Stephen Davis, Senior Fellow and Associate Director of Corporate Governance at Harvard Law School. Stephen has written for many years about the need for a better of alignment of interests in the financial system — in other words, aligning the interests of companies with those of their customers and shareholders, investors and the general public. I've just caught up with Stephen on a visit to London, and was encouraged to hear that he feels we're really starting to see progress on corporate governance. He gives as an example the recent shareholder backlash to a scandal at Wells Fargo, the huge international banking and financial services holding company based in San Francisco.

Hi there, my name is Sam Lewis and welcome to this week's TEBI podcast, brought to you by the Evidence-Based Investor in conjunction with Regis Media - connecting advisers with clients. Earlier this week, we spoke to Barry Ritholtz, the co-founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, based in New York. As well as running a financial planning and asset management firm, Barry is a prolific writer and a regular commentator in the States on a wide range of financial topics. Last year, Ritholtz and his partners put on the very first Evidence-Based Investing Conference in New York. It was such a success that this year, they're heading to the West Coast as well. We began by asking Barry about how the idea came about for this year's event, taking place in Dana Point, California.

In the latest TEBI Podcast, former Amsterdam options trader Martijn Rozemuller explains how he turned to indexing after losing big on "Europe's Enron". The MD of Think ETFs expects evidence-based investing to grow rapidly in the Netherlands over the next two years.

Hello and welcome to Episode 12 of the TEBI Podcast, brought to you by The Evidence-Based Investor in conjunction with Regis Media. I'm Robin Powell, and you'll find my blog at evidenceinvestor.com. That's evidenceinvestor.com. My guest this week is, Dr Peter Westaway, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy Group for Vanguard Europe. Dr. Westaway was previously chief economist, Europe, for Nomura International and a senior official at the Bank of England. He is also a visiting professor at Queen Mary University of London. As everyone knows, Vanguard is best known for providing low-cost funds and is the world's biggest provider of index funds specifically. It doesn't really do market timing or tactical asset allocation. So why, I started by asking Dr Westaway, does Vanguard really need need a Chief Economist?

Hello and welcome to the latest TEBI Podcast, brought to you by The Evidence-Based Investor, in conjunction with Regis Media, Connecting advisers with clients. I'm Robin Powell, and this is Episode11. This week we're looking at exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. As everyone knows, ETFs have grown in popularity very fast in recent years. Until recently, the focus has been on the US market, which still accounts for more than 70% of ETF assets. But ETFs are taking off in other regions too. In Europe, for example, assets have grown tenfold over the last ten years. ETF assets globally now stand at a staggering US$3.2 trillion. I've been speaking Nizam Hamid, European ETF strategist at WisdomTree in London. I started by asking him to explain what he thinks are the main advantage of using ETFs.

Last week I had the pleasure of interviewing Kunal Kapoor for the TEBI Podcast, and introducing him on stage at Morningstar's Game Changer Investment Summit in Brussels. Kunal Kapoor has just taken over as CEO of Morningstar from the company's billionaire founder Joe Mansueto. It's one of the biggest jobs in global investing; Morningstar enjoys huge influence among investment professionals, advisers, journalists and end investors, employing more than 4,200 people around the world. Whatever happens in the investing industry over the next 20 years, Kunal Kapoor is likely to be one of the movers and shakers. Kapoor's background is in analysing and rating actively managed funds and, as you would expect, his views on the value of active management differ from my own. I was, however, encouraged to hear that he does share a very similar perspective to TEBI's on such critical issues as fees and charges, the rôle of financial advice and the importance of putting the interests of consumers first. Whatever your views on those topics, I think you'll find this a fascinating and insightful interview.

Hello and welcome to the TEBI Podcast from The Evidence-Based Investor, brought to you by Regis Media, Connecting advisers with clients. I'm Robin Powell. This week we have a very special guest, Larry Swedroe. Since 1996, Larry has been Director of Research at Buckingham Asset Management in St Louis, where he's spent his time, talent and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with great enthusiasm. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in terms the layman can understand. It was called “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need”. He has since written seven more books. In this podcast, I want to focus on his latest book, co-authored with Andrew Berkin. It's about factor-based investing — sometimes known as smart, or alternative, beta.

Hello and welcome to the latest TEBI Podcast, brought to you by The Evidence-Based Investor, in conjunction with Regis Media. I'm Robin Powell, and you'll find my blog at EvidenceInvestor.com. Now, we have a special treat for you this week, because our guest is none other than F. William McNabb. It was, coincidentally, at the very start of the global financial crisis in September 2008, that Bill McNabb became Chief Executive Officer and President at The Vanguard Group. I first met him in 2011, when I interviewed him for the online documentary Passive Investing: The Evidence. Since then, Vanguard has gone from strength to strength. For five consecutive years, Vanguard has been the world's fastest-growing asset manager. Vanguard, which is based in Pennsylvania, attracted more than $315 billion of net new money last year, an increase of 23.2 per cent on 2015. I recently caught up with Bill and started by asking him about the two big political events of 2016 — Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Interestingly, it turns out that Bill had a strong inkling all along that the British people would vote to leave the European Union.

Now, anyone who's seen my blog The Evidence-Based Investor will know that I'm not a big fan of actively managed mutual funds. In principle, active management sounds fair enough. But in practice, only a tiny number of funds outperform over the long term, and they're almost impossible to spot in advance. Consequently, most investors in active funds end up worse off than if they'd simply invested in low-cost index funds. The problem is that most financial advisers in the UK still recommend active funds. So, given all the evidence that most investors shouldn't be using them, will we start seeing investors suing their advisers for compensation? Joining me via Skype is Phil Miller from a firm called Pension Focus, which represents clients who feel they've been badly advised.

The special guest on our final podcast of 2016 is Daniel Egan, Vice-President of Behavioural Finance and Investing at Betterment, the New York City-based automated investment service, or robo-adviser. Although new robo-advisers are launching all around the world, almost without exception they'e struggling to make anything more than modest profits. That notwithstanding, I do believe that automated and partially automated investing are the future; and also that robo-advisers can happily coexist alongside traditional face-to-face advisory firms. More than that, I think that human advisers and robos can learn from each other. What I was most keen to ask Daniel Egan about is the research that Betterment has done on how to curb destructive investor behaviour, and what the lessons of it are for traditional advisory firms. I hope you'll find this podcast as interesting to listen to as it was for me to produce, and if you do, please leave a review and share it.

Over the years I've found that some of the stanchest and most effective advocates of evidence-based investing are those who've actually worked in the active fund management industry and seen its shortcomings at first hand. Lars Kroijer is one example, and another is Preston McSwain. Preston hails from Birmingham, Alabama, and worked for more than 20 years selling and marketing complex investment products for a range of firms including Lehman Brothers. But Lehman's collapse and the ensuing global market meltdown prompted a complete rethink about investing and how best to serve consumers. He now runs Fiduciary Wealth Partners in Boston, managing the wealth of high-net worth individuals, and primarily using Vanguard index funds. The latest episode of the TEBI podcast tells his remarkable story.

If you haven't been following our new podcast series, what have you been doing? Seriously, we'd love you to subscribe and to give us your feedback. For this week's show I review the inaugural Evidence-Based Investing Conference, held earlier this month in New York City. It's a great listen, with contributions from three of the most prominent thought leaders on the US investing scene — Josh Brown, Barry Ritholtz and Morgan Housel. Enjoy!

Welcome to the third episode of the Evidence-Based Investor podcast! After the release of the long-awaited FCA interim report into the UK asset management industry, Robin speaks to Andy Agathangelou from the Transparency Task Force about his involvement in putting the case for clearer charges and a better deal for consumers. This episode is brought to you by Regis Media. For more insight and comment on evidence-based investing, visit evidenceinvestor.co.uk.

Welcome to episode 2 of the Evidence-Based Investor podcast! In the build up to the inaugural Evidence-Based Investing conference in New York, Robin speaks to Wendy Cook about how the term "evidence-based" investing was coined, the challenges of writing about investing, and how the rest of the world is moving away from active management to low-cost indexing. This episode is brought to you by Regis Media. For more insight and comment on evidence-based investing, visit evidenceinvestor.co.uk.

Welcome to the first episode of the Evidence-Based Investor podcast! In this show, Robin Powell speaks to Craig Lazzara and Tim Edwards from S&P Dow Jones Indices about the latest results from SPIVA 2016. The conversation ranges from active funds in America to the impact of Brexit in Europe and the UK. This episode is brought to you by Regis Media. For more insight and comment on evidence-based investing, visit evidenceinvestor.co.uk.