Podcast appearances and mentions of elroy dimson

America's recent economic performance has been a surprise, as it's managed to outperform many other markets over the last quarter century. We review the insights from the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, discussing how the US has thrived and what that means for future investment strategies. Our guests, Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh, share their expertise on market trends, the importance of diversification, and the implications of recent economic shifts. We also explore the complexities of factors like equity risk premium and the evolving role of bonds in an investment portfolio. Join us as we explore these themes and consider what's next for investors in a changing global landscape. You can read the Global Investment Returns Yearbook here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Elroy on LinkedIn.Follow Kiran on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh09:21 - What kind of feedback do they get from clients?13:04 - Stocks for the long run?17:41 - Is the US losing its grip on its economy?24:08 - Are indicies...

This annual guide to historical long-run returns is put together by UBS Investment Bank and UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office, in partnership with Professor Paul Marsh and Dr Mike Staunton of the London Business School and Professor Elroy Dimson of the University of Cambridge. The latest edition explores how 125 years of historical data can provide crucial insights for the future. Featuring Marsh, Kiran Ganesh and Tim Ramskill.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neste episódio, Emília Vieira e Pamela Macedo falam sobre investimento em valor e sobre a importância de seguir uma filosofia de investimento testada pelo tempo. Explicam o que torna um negócio excecional, e porque é que estas empresas conseguem capitalizar valor no longo prazo. "A filosofia de investimentos é uma espécie de estrela polar que dita as decisões que tomamos e nos permite manter o rumo". Bibliografia: “Buffettology” by Mary Buffett and David Clark “Triumph of the Optimists” by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits” by Phil Fisher "Berkshire Hathaway - Letters to Shareholders 1965 -2014

Hi everyone. We're taking the week off for the 4th of July holiday, but we wanted to use this week's episode to honor Nobel Prize-winning economist Harry Markowitz, who recently passed away at the age of 95. Professor Markowitz is a giant of finance, someone who put diversification and Modern Portfolio Theory on the map, with his research transforming the way we allocate and invest our assets. While we didn't have the opportunity to interview Professor Markowitz for the podcast, we were able to chat recently with someone who had interviewed him: author and financial researcher Dr. Andrew Lo. Dr. Lo recently published a book titled “In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio,” in which he profiled some of the leading figures in academic research and finance. None stood taller than Professor Markowitz, whom Dr. Lo discusses at length in this interview we aired in February of 2022. We think you'll enjoy it. Thanks so much for listening and see you in a week. Have a happy holiday.Our guest this week is Dr. Andrew Lo. Dr. Lo is the Charles E. & Susan T. Harris Professor, a professor of finance, and the director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His current research spans five areas, including evolutionary models of investor behavior and adaptive markets, systemic risk, and financial regulation, among others. Dr. Lo has published extensively in academic journals and authored a number of books including In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, which he cowrote with Stephen Foerster. He has received numerous awards for his work and contributions to modern finance research throughout his career. He holds a bachelor's in economics from Yale University and an AM and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.BackgroundIn Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest, by Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. FoersterAdaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought, by Andrew W. LoHistory"Thirty Maidens of Geneva," the Tontine Coffee-House, thetch.blog.com, Aug. 5, 2019."Why 18th Century Swiss Bankers Bet on the Lives of Young Girls," by Stephen Foerster, sfoerster-5338.medium.com, Sept. 2, 2021.William F. Sharpe"Keynes the Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis," by David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, and Justin Foo, papers.ssrn.com, Sept. 26, 2013.Eugene F. Fama"Algorithmic Models of Investor Behavior," by Andrew Lo and Alexander Remorov, eqderivatives.com, 2021."In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: Eugene Fama," Interview with Andrew Lo and Eugene Fama, youtube.com, Dec. 15, 2016."Why Artificial Intelligence May Not Be as Useful or as Challenging as Artificial Stupidity," by Andrew Lo, hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu, July 1, 2019.Charles D. Ellis"Charley Ellis: Why Active Investing Is Still a Loser's Game," The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 27, 2020.Other"7 Principles to Help You Create Your Perfect Portfolio," by Robert Powell, marketwatch.com, Nov. 10, 2021. 

Description:  In this Episode, James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle revisit the basics of the recently launched Tax-Free First Home Savings Account (FHSA) and give their listeners some planning ideas.  They also perpetuate their annual tradition and review of the 15th edition of The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2023, Summary Edition.    Read The Script:  INTRODUCTION:  François Doyon La Rochelle:   You're listening to Capital Topics, episode #52!  This is a monthly podcast about passive asset management and financial and tax planning ideas for the long-term investor.   Your hosts for this podcast are James Parkyn and me François Doyon La Rochelle, both portfolio managers with PWL Capital.  In this episode, we will discuss the following points:  For our first topic, we will review and comment on the recently launched Tax-Free First Home Savings Account (FHSA)  And next, for our main topic, we will Review the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2023  Enjoy!    In the news: The New FHSA     François Doyon La Rochelle: In our first topic today, we will review and comment on the recently launched Tax-Free First Home Savings Account (FHSA). This is a topic that we covered in episode #45 of this podcast back in October 2022 but since then, as of April 1st, the legislation governing these types of accounts has taken effect, so we thought it was a good time to revisit the basics and give you some planning ideas.  James Parkyn: Yes, for many of our clients and our listeners, this is a hot topic that deserves our attention since it's probably the most significant tax break ever offered to help Canadians save money tax-free for the purchase of their first home.   François Doyon La Rochelle: I totally agree, so let's start and remind our listeners of the basics of how an FHSA works. The first question to ask is, who can open a First Home Savings Account? So, to be able to open an FHSA, you must be a tax resident of Canada aged between 18 and 71. Furthermore, you or your partner cannot have owned a home in the current calendar year or any of the previous 4 calendar years.  James Parkyn: One interesting nuance here to highlight is, although you can only participate once in the program, if you are now renting, but you were a homeowner let's say 6 years ago, you could still qualify as a first-time homeowner and open an account.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Correct, once you have opened your account, you can contribute up to $8,000 per year to a lifetime maximum of $40,000. If you don't contribute the full $8,000 in a given year you can carry forward the unused portions of your contribution room up to a maximum of $8,000. This means that if you contribute less than $8,000 in one year, you can contribute your unused amount in a future year.  For example, if you open an FHSA in 2023 and you only contribute $4,000, in 2024 you would be allowed to contribute $12,000. That is the $8,000 for 2024 and the $4,000 for your unused contribution room for 2023. Also, like with the RRSP, your contributions are tax-deductible, meaning that any amount you put in will be deducted from your taxable income, therefore reducing your income tax.  James Parkyn: An interesting planning strategy here, especially for younger folks that are just starting their careers and that may not be earning a lot of money, is that you don't have to claim a deduction in the tax year you have made your contribution. Your contributed amount can be carried forward and deducted in a later year when your income will be higher. This way you can get a bigger tax deduction for your contribution. For parents wanting to help their adult kids buy their first home, since attribution rules don't apply, they can give money to their kids for their contributions.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Also, contributions to a FHSA doesn't have any impact on your regular RRSP contribution room so, if someone is fortunate enough and has the funds available, he could contribute to both type of accounts and use the tax refund to contribute to their regular TFSA. There is an important caveat however, once you open your FHSA, it can only remain open for up to 15 years or up to the end of the year when the account holder turns 71. At that point, if the funds have not been used to buy a first home, it can be transferred on a tax-free basis to an RRSP or RRIF or it can be withdrawn.  James Parkyn: We would not recommend withdrawing the funds as the amount withdrawn would be added to your income and taxed. This said, since the transfer to an RRSP would not impact, nor would it be limited to someone's RRSP contribution room there is another planning idea here for renters. Lifetime renters that don't intend to ever buy a house and that have maximized their RRSPs could open an FHSA and maximize their contributions to it. This way, since the funds accumulated in an FHSA can be rolled over tax-free to a regular RRSP the renters would effectively be generating an extra $40,000 of RRSP contribution room.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, this is effectively one of the loopholes of this new program. Even then, if you are unsure whether you will be buying a house in the future, there is not much downside in opening an account and making the contributions because in the end if you don't buy a house, you can rollover the funds accumulated tax-free to your RRSP or RRIF. So, if you don't have the funds to make contributions to both the FHSA and the RRSP it would make sense to put money in the FHSA first. Talking about RRSPs, if you were planning to use the funds accumulated in your RRSP to buy your house with the Home Buyers Plan (HBP) you will be happy to hear that you will now be able to use the funds from both types of accounts to purchase your home. As a reminder, at first, when the legislation was introduced, you could not combine both plans.  James Parkyn: This is huge since prospective first-time home buyers could add another $35,000 in down payment.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, this is very interesting, however unlike with the FHSA, the amount withdrawn from your RRSP with the HBP must be repaid within 15 years, starting the second year after the year of the first withdrawal. So, the HBP is essentially only a way to borrow money from your RRSP.  James Parkyn: Correct, in any case, I would recommend anyone to open a FHSA as early as possible to benefit from tax-free compound growth. If you open your account early and you make the maximum contribution each year, you can invest your funds more aggressively since the account can remain open for up to 15 years before you need to cash it out to buy a home or roll it over to your RRSP or RRIF. If you wait too long before opening and contributing to the account, you are giving up on growth since you will need to invest your funds more conservatively.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, investing the maximum early, that is $8,000 per year for the first five years for a total of $40,000 at a 6% annual growth rate could result in approximately $85,000 in 15 years. If you combine this amount with the HBP of $35,000 that's a total of $120,000 in down payment. If you have a partner that has been as diligent as you that's $240,000 that could be available for a down payment.  James Parkyn: Yes, and again whatever your investment goals, the key is to let the magic of compounding work for you.   The sooner you start the better you will end up in the long term.  François Doyon La Rochelle: James, many Early Savers ask themselves when they are starting what should I prioritize? The TFSA, the FHSA, or the RRSP, and for those starting a family we can add the RESP.  What do you recommend for Early Savers who have competing needs for their savings and can't contribute to all of them?  James Parkyn: Great question Francois. The answer to me is likely to do your TFSA first because it has the most flexibility in that there are no tax consequences on funds withdrawn and you can put the amount taken out back in but you have to wait the following tax year. There is going to be a lot of FHSA promotion about the tax deductibility but if for any reason you would need to withdraw the funds it will be fully taxable, and you will not have the option to put the funds back in. So, there is no one size fits all answer. If you are sure of buying a home and have sufficient income to claim the deduction, then the FHSA will be a great option. You could even consider withdrawing from your TFSA and contributing to your FHSA and then using the tax savings to put money back in your TFSA.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Finally, for the moment there is only a handful of financial institutions that are presently offering these types of accounts. When I verified, Questrade, the Royal Bank, and the National Bank were the only ones offering it, but you can be sure that other institutions will follow suit in the coming months.  James Parkyn: Lastly, if you are currently in the process of buying a house since there is no holding period before you can withdraw funds from your FHSA to buy a house, you could technically open an account and make the maximum contribution for the year to get a tax refund and then withdraw the money the following day if needed.  François Doyon La Rochelle:  Yes, that's a good point James, thank you!      Main Topic: Review of The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2023 – Summary Edition:     François Doyon La Rochelle: Our Main Topic today is a Review of the 15th edition of The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2023 Summary Edition. Our regular Listeners will know we make this an annual tradition. Last year, we put a lot of effort into preparing our Podcast #38 in which we reviewed the 2022 edition of the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook, and we recommend our Listeners to go back and listen to it as the content (The impact of High Inflation on Stocks and Bonds and Update on the benefit of International Diversification) is still very relevant to what is happening in financial markets now.  That being said, James, could you give our Listeners an Intro about the Yearbook and explain its purpose?  James Parkyn: Absolutely, I will quote directly from the Introduction: “The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook documents long-run asset returns over more than a century since 1900. A key purpose of the Yearbook is to help investors understand today's markets through the lens of financial history.” The Yearbook details the returns and risks from investing in equities, bonds, cash, currencies, and factors in 35 countries and five different composite indexes. The Global Investment Returns Yearbook is produced in collaboration with renowned financial historians from the London Business School Professors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton who produce the DMS Database.  They are also the co-authors of the book “The Triumph of the Optimists” published in 2003.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Reviewing the Yearbook is an annual must-read for us. I would add that it is also a core part of our Podcast mission to share with our Listeners relevant evidence-based research. OK so now James, I'm going to start today's review by asking you the same two questions as last year. First, why do you as a Portfolio Manager find the Yearbook useful?   James Parkyn: Francois, our discipline, as our regular Listeners know well is to invest with “The Investor Mindset, focused on the long term”.  We don't want to be led astray by short-term noise in the financial media and recent financial market volatility.  This challenge is daunting and applies to all Investors including us Professionals.  We have said it often on our Podcast: “It is simple to say but not easy to do: We must always be cognizant that we can fall into a trap of trying to “Forecast the Future”.  This is why the Yearbook is so useful to us as portfolio managers.  The Yearbook helps put current financial market events into context and compare them to long-term capital market history.  François Doyon La Rochelle: I agree, after all the major economic and geopolitical events of last year, it is crucial to take time out and look at financial market history to appreciate the importance of risk management.    James Parkyn: The 2023 Yearbook, like the ones before it, addresses this topic of why a long-term perspective is needed to understand risk and return in stocks and bonds.  The events of 2022 should have reminded investors to fear complacency.  Larry Swedroe said it well in his article “Lessons from the Markets in 2022. His Lesson #1 for 2022 was: “Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't or won't.”  François Doyon La Rochelle: Now for my second question to you James: what are the highlights of this year's Report?  James Parkyn: I will share my Five Highlights of this year's Yearbook.  My first highlight is they make the case for the importance of a long-term perspective and with it an appreciation of the laws of risk and return in stocks and bonds. This starts with explaining how even 20 years of data is too short a period to help make asset allocation decisions.    I quote from the Yearbook: “The volatility of markets means that even over long periods, we can still experience “unusual” returns. Consider, for example, an investor at the start of 2000 who looked back at the 10.5% real annualized return on global equities over the previous 20 years and regarded this as “long-run” history, and hence guiding the future. But, over the next decade, our investor would have earned a negative real return on world stocks of −0.6% per annum.”  François Doyon La Rochelle: This is very true and that's why it's so important to be careful about “Recency Bias”. The Yearbook also talks about having a long-term perspective on Bonds. What does it say, James?  James Parkyn: I remind our Listeners that for most Investors Recent bias is based on what happened in the last year.  The Yearbook makes the case for a much longer time frame. So, to answer your question about Bonds I share another quote from the yearbook: “Long periods of history are also needed to understand bond returns. Over the 40 years until end-2021, the world bond index provided an annualized real return of 6.3%, not far below the 7.4% from world equities. “I believe and the Yearbook concurs that extrapolating bond returns of this magnitude into the future would be foolish. The rapport goes on to say: “Those 40 years were a golden age for bonds, just as the 1980s and 1990s were a golden age for equities. In fact, the real return on world bonds in 2022 was −27%.”  François Doyon La Rochelle: It is so difficult if not impossible to forecast and successfully time big market directional shifts. In our last Podcast #51, we addressed the Active vs Passive results in 2022. The worst category out of the 20 was Global Real Estate with a success rate of only 20%, it was slightly surpassed by the corporate bond category with a success rate of 22.6% and by the diversified emerging markets category with a success rate of 23.4%. So, the vast majority of Active Managers missed the boat and performed poorly in these Asset Classes compared with the passive funds.  James Parkyn: Exactly.  My second highlight of the 2023 Yearbook is linked to the first one: “A historical risk premium in equity and bond returns relative to T-bills exists for a reason, that being a necessary payment for the risk of volatility and drawdown.” As our Listeners well know, we have experienced four equity bear markets since 2000 and we need to be paid for such a risk.   François Doyon La Rochelle: This makes total sense when you think that in 2020 with the Pandemic, the world experienced its third bear market in less than 20 years. Markets then staged a remarkable recovery and volatility fell once again. However, in 2022, volatility again rose, and both stocks and bonds fell sharply on inflation and rate hike worries and concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war. This was the fourth bear market since 2000. The Yearbook addresses how portfolio diversification can mitigate such risks.   James Parkyn: Yes, but reaping the benefits of diversification is also a long-term concept and can let you down in the short term. The historically extreme negative returns in 2022 of the classic balanced 60/40 equity/bond allocation are the perfect example.  François Doyon La Rochelle: To me, this point was also made in last year's Report, specifically that the negative correlations between stocks and bonds were not the long-term norm. The Yearbook makes it clear that stocks and Bonds have a historically positive correlation and that the last 20 years of negative correlation before 2022, were not the norm.   James Parkyn: We have addressed this topic a lot in recent Podcasts. Again, Investors must have a Long-Term Mindset.    My third highlight of the 2023 Yearbook is the topic of stagflation.  François Doyon La Rochelle: For our listeners, it might be good to clarify that stagflation is a term from the 70s, and early 80s, which characterizes an economy with low growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.  James Parkyn: The Yearbook warns there is a “growing consensus that conditions will return to normal with low inflation re-established.”  They quote academics Arnott and Shakernia: “A keener look at history would highlight how rare this happens”.  They state this would in their view be a “best quintile” outcome with the “worst quintile” being inflation persistence for a decade.  François Doyon La Rochelle: To me, this point is about forecasting the future or trying to guess “the markets' prevailing psyche.”  James Parkyn: Agreed, but the Yearbook makes the case that inflation and interest rates may not come down as fast as expected based on the very long-term perspective of the data in the DMS Database. My fourth highlight is when they tackle the big question: “What does it mean to be an Inflation hedge?” For instance, most Investors believe that Equities are a hedge against Inflation. The Yearbook provides extensive evidence that stocks, as well as bonds, tend to perform poorly when inflation is higher. It also makes the point that both stocks and bonds perform worse during hiking cycles.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Stocks are not, as is often claimed, the best hedge against inflation. The Yearbook makes a great case that “returns deteriorate for both” stocks and bonds as inflation rises. The Yearbook also makes the case that “Equities performed especially well in real terms when inflation was low.” In periods of deflation stocks actually “produced lower returns than on government bonds.” We discussed this in last year's Podcast #38.  James Parkyn: Yes, we did, and the 2023 Yearbook makes the point very clearly again this year about the long-run evidence on equity returns.  I quote: “While equities have enjoyed excellent long-run returns, they are not and never have been the hedge against inflation that many observers have suggested.  Despite this, it is widely believed that stocks must be a good hedge against inflation to the extent that they have had long-run returns that were ahead of inflation. However, their high ex-post (after the fact) return is better explained as a large equity risk premium.  The key nuance is that: “It is important to distinguish between beating inflation and hedging against inflation.”  François Doyon La Rochelle: Financial Market returns in 2022 proved the point. Stocks went down in a year of high inflation. The Yearbook makes the case that “Most finance professionals are too young to remember high inflation, bond bear markets, and years when stocks and bonds declined sharply together.”   James Parkyn: The Yearbook provides the long-run analysis needed to place the events of 2022 in context. Now I will share my fifth and final highlight when the Yearbook tackles the topic of Commodities as an asset class and the benefit of holding it in periods of inflation.  François Doyon La Rochelle: We hear a lot of noise about investing in Commodities as an Inflation Hedge and the fact that they are not correlated to Equities and Bonds. What does it say about the role that commodities play as an asset class? Do they offer a hedge against inflation that equities do not?   James Parkyn: To answer your question, I will quote from the Yearbook: “A key conclusion to take away, and highly pertinent today as 60/40 equity/bond strategies have let investors down, is that commodity futures do prove a “diversifier” from an asset allocation perspective, being negatively correlated with bonds, lowly correlated with equities and statistically a hedge against inflation itself.”  They go on to say that: “The problem is that the limited size of the asset class cannot solve all the asset allocator's prevailing inflation-induced dilemmas.”  So, it's nice in theory but not realistically investable for both Institutional and Retail Investors.  François Doyon La Rochelle: James, you refer here to commodity futures but it's also interesting to raise that the Yearbook also looked at direct investing in commodities.  James Parkyn: The Yearbook finding is that direct investing in Commodities does not provide a hedge against Inflation. I Quote “We find investing in individual commodities have themselves yielded very low long returns.   François Doyon La Rochelle: There is more in the Yearbook that is significant: As we point out to our Listeners regularly on our Podcast, history can provide clues to the future, so we should be cautious about any forecasts.   James Parkyn: Yes, the Yearbook results are long-term averages spanning many different economic conditions. As discussed at the beginning of this podcast, this is because stocks and bonds are volatile, with major variations in year-to-year returns. We need a very long time series to support inferences about investment returns. The Credit Suisse report shows us that even 20 years is often not long enough.  François Doyon La Rochelle: So, James, to wrap things up, given the insights from this Yearbook, and given the backdrop of higher rates and high but slowly declining inflation, how should investors be thinking about their portfolios today?  James Parkyn: François, I think it's appropriate to repeat our Conclusion from Podcast #38 when we covered the 2022 Credit Suisse Yearbook. I think it's also important to remember that rising rates and high inflation are just two risk factors that investors face.  Equity investors have experienced periods when safe assets, for example, bonds and cash, have been good counterweights to the volatility of stocks. Remember, there are many different risks that you are trying to defend against.  There will be times when bonds will be really helpful. I recommend that our listeners always consider their long-term goals, their risk profile, their ability to take risks, and their time horizon. In addition, they should consider the decumulation plan of their portfolios. All these elements should be considered when thinking about the structure of their portfolios.  François Doyon La Rochelle: In conclusion, I quote from the Yearbook: “Bad years happen and, when they do, it is consoling to remind ourselves of the long-run record from global investing. For investors in risky assets, especially equities, the long-run record truly does represent the triumph of the optimists.” James Parkyn: That is a great quote Francois and hopefully, our Listeners will take inspiration from it. On another note, we hope the recent merger of UBS with Credit Suisse into a mega bank will mean that the tradition will continue, and we will see a 2024 edition.    Conclusion:     François Doyon La Rochelle: Thank you, James Parkyn for sharing your expertise and your knowledge.   James Parkyn: You are welcome, Francois.  François Doyon La Rochelle: That's it for episode #52 of Capital Topics!  Do not forget, if you would like to submit questions or suggestions for the show, please email us at:capitaltopics@pwlcapital.com  Also, if you like our podcast, please share it when with family and friends and if you have not subscribed to it, please do.  Again, thank you for tuning in and please join us for our next episode to be released on June 8th.     See you soon!    Links: - Episode 51: Update on Active Vs. Passive & Global Banking Solvency — Capital Topics  by James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle  - Episode 45: Bond Investing A New Landscape — Capital Topics by James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle  - Episode 38: Review of the Credit Suisse 2022 Global Investment Returns Yearbook — Capital Topics by James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle  - First Home Savings Account (FHSA) - Canada.ca by Government of Canada  - Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2023 – Credit Suisse (credit-suisse.com) by Credit Suisse  - Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns: Dimson, Elroy, Marsh, Paul, Staunton, Mike: 8601416069784: Books - Amazon.ca by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh & Mike Staunton 

Description:  Dans cet épisode, James Parkyn et François Doyon La Rochelle reviennent sur les bases du compte d'épargne libre d'impôt pour l'achat d'une première propriété (CELIAPP) et donnent à leurs auditeurs quelques idées de planification.  Ils perpétuent également leur tradition annuelle et passent en revue la 15e édition du Rapport Annuel 2023 du Crédit Suisse sur les classes d'actifs mondiales.     Lire le script:  Introduction :  François Doyon La Rochelle: Bienvenue à Sujet Capital, un Balado mensuel à propos de la gestion passive de portefeuille et de la planification financière et fiscale pour les investisseurs à long terme.  Vos hôtes pour ce Balado sont James Parkyn et moi-même François Doyon La Rochelle, tous deux gestionnaires de portefeuilles avec PWL Capital.  Au programme aujourd'hui pour l'épisode #52 :  Pour notre premier sujet, nous ferons la revue et commenterons le nouveau le compte d'épargne libre-d ‘impôt pour l'achat d'une première propriété (CELIAPP)  Et ensuite, pour notre sujet principal, nous ferons la revue de la 15eme édition du Rapport Annuel 2023 du Crédit Suisse sur les classes d'actifs mondiales.   Bonne écoute !    Le nouveau compte d'épargne libre d'impôt pour l'achat d'une première propriété CELIAPP :  François Doyon La Rochelle: Dans notre premier sujet d'aujourd'hui, on va revoir et commenter le compte d'épargne libre-d‘impôt pour l'achat d'une première propriété (CELIAPP). C'est un sujet qu'on a abordé dans l'épisode #45 de ce podcast en octobre 2022 mais depuis le 1er avril, puisque la législation qui régit ce type de comptes est entrée en vigueur, il est maintenant disponible. Donc on a pensé que c'était le bon moment pour revoir les bases et vous donner quelques idées de planification.  James Parkyn: Effectivement, pour un bon nombre de nos clients et de nos auditeurs, il s'agit d'un sujet chaud qui mérite notre attention puisqu'il s'agit probablement de l'allégement fiscal le plus important jamais offert pour aider les Canadiens à économiser de l'argent en franchise d'impôt pour l'achat de leur première maison.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Je suis totalement d'accord avec ça, donc je vais commencer en rappelant à nos auditeurs les bases du fonctionnement du CELIAPP. La première question à se poser est, qui peut ouvrir un CELIAPP? Alors, pour pouvoir ouvrir un CELIAPP, vous devez être un résident fiscal du Canada âgé de 18 à 71 ans. De plus, vous ou votre partenaire ne pouvez pas avoir été propriétaire d'une maison au cours de l'année civile en cours lors de l'ouverture ou de l'une des 4 années civiles précédentes.  James Parkyn: Il y a une nuance intéressante ici à souligner qui est que, bien que vous ne puissiez participer qu'une seule fois au programme, si vous êtes maintenant locataire, mais que vous étiez propriétaire, disons il y a 6 ans, vous pourriez toujours vous qualifier en tant que premier propriétaire et ouvrir un compte.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Effectivement et une fois que vous avez ouvert votre compte, vous pouvez cotiser jusqu'à 8 000 $ par année jusqu'à un maximum à vie de 40 000 $. Si vous ne cotisez pas la totalité des 8 000 $ au cours d'une année donnée, vous pouvez reporter la portion inutilisée de vos droits de cotisation jusqu'à un maximum annuel de 8 000 $. Ça veut dire que si vous cotisez moins de 8 000 $ une année, vous pouvez cotiser votre montant inutilisé au cours d'une année future. Par exemple, si vous ouvrez un CELIAPP en 2023 et que vous cotisez seulement 4 000 $, en 2024, vous serez autorisé à cotiser 12 000 $. C'est-à-dire 8 000 $ pour 2024 plus les 4 000 $ pour vos droits de cotisation inutilisés pour 2023. Ce qui est intéressant ici c'est, comme pour le REER, vos cotisations sont déductibles d'impôt, ce qui veut dire que tout montant que vous versez sera déduit de votre revenu imposable, ce qui réduira votre impôt sur le revenu.   James Parkyn: Une stratégie de planification intéressante avec la CELIAPP pour les épargnants précoces qui commencent tout juste leur carrière et qui ne gagnent peut-être pas encore beaucoup d'argent, est que vous n'avez pas à demander de déduction au cours de l'année d'imposition où vous avez versé votre contribution. Votre montant cotisé peut être reporté et déduit dans une année ultérieure lorsque votre revenu sera plus élevé. De cette façon, vous pouvez obtenir une déduction fiscale plus importante pour votre contribution. Aussi, pour les parents qui souhaitent aider leurs enfants adultes à acheter leur première maison, puisque les règles d'attribution ne s'appliquent pas, ils peuvent donner de l'argent à leurs enfants pour leurs contributions.  François Doyon La Rochelle: De plus, les cotisations à un CELIAPP n'ont aucun impact sur vos droits de cotisation à votre REER. Donc, si quelqu'un a la chance d'avoir les fonds nécessaires, il peut cotiser aux deux types de comptes et utiliser le remboursement d'impôt pour cotiser à son CELI. C'est important de comprendre par contre, qu'une fois que vous avez ouvert votre CELIAPP, il ne peut rester ouvert qu'un maximum de 15 ans ou jusqu'à la fin de l'année ou le titulaire du compte atteint l'âge de 71 ans. À ce moment, si les fonds n'ont pas été utilisés pour acheter une première maison, ils peuvent être transférée en franchise d'impôt dans un REER ou un FERR ou tout simplement être retirée.  James Parkyn: Dans la plupart des cas on ne recommanderait pas de retirer les fonds car le montant retiré serait ajouté à votre revenu et imposé. Ceci dit, puisque le transfert à un REER n'aurait pas d'impact, ni ne serait limité aux droits de cotisation au REER d'une personne, il y a une autre idée de planification intéressante ici pour les locataires. Ceux qui pensent être locataires à vie, qui n'ont pas l'intention d'acheter une maison et qui ont maximisé leurs REERs, pourraient ouvrir un CELIAPP et maximiser leurs contributions. De cette façon, étant donné que les fonds accumulés dans un CELIAPP peuvent être transférés en franchise d'impôt dans un REER ordinaire, les locataires à vie généreraient effectivement 40 000 $ supplémentaires de droits de cotisation au REER.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Ce que tu viens d'expliquer James c'est effectivement une façon déjouer système avec ce nouveau programme. Même dans le cas que vous n'êtes pas sûr d'acheter une maison dans le futur, il n'y a pas beaucoup d'inconvénients à ouvrir un compte et à verser les cotisations, car au final, si vous n'achetez pas de maison, vous pouvez transférer les fonds accumulés libre d'impôt à votre REER ou FERR. Donc, si vous n'avez pas les fonds nécessaires pour cotiser à la fois au CELIAPP et au REER, il serait logique de placer d'abord de l'argent dans le CELIAPP. Maintenant, puisqu'on parle de REER, si vous aviez l'intention d'utiliser les fonds accumulés dans votre REER pour acheter votre maison avec le Régime d'accession à la propriété (RAP), vous serez heureux d'apprendre que vous pourrez maintenant utiliser les fonds des deux types de comptes pour acheter votre maison. A titre de rappel, au début, lorsque la loi a été présentée, vous ne pouviez pas combiner l'argent du CELIAPP et celle du REER par l'entremise du RAP, maintenant c'est possible.  James Parkyn: C'est énorme puisque les acheteurs potentiels d'une première maison pourraient ajouter un autre 35 000 $ d'acompte avec le RAP.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Oui, c'est très intéressant, cependant contrairement au CELIAPP, le montant retiré de votre REER avec le RAP doit être remboursé dans un délai de 15 ans, à compter de la deuxième année suivant l'année du premier retrait. Donc, le RAP c'est essentiellement seulement un moyen d'emprunter de l'argent de votre REER.  James Parkyn: Exact, et dans tous les cas, je recommanderais à quiconque qui est éligible d'ouvrir un CELIAPP de le faire le plus tôt possible pour bénéficier d'une croissance composée libre d'impôt. Si vous ouvrez votre compte tôt et que vous versez la contribution maximale chaque année, vous pourrez alors investir vos fonds de manière plus agressive puisque le compte peut rester ouvert jusqu'à 15 ans avant que vous n'ayez besoin de le décaisser pour acheter une maison ou de le transférer à votre REER ou FERR.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Oui, en investissant le maximum tôt, soit 8 000 $ par année pendant les cinq premières années pour un total de 40 000 $ à un taux de croissance annuel de 6 %, vous pourriez avoir environ 85 000 $ dans 15 ans. Si vous combinez ce montant avec le RAP de 35 000 $, ça fait un total de 120 000 $ en mise de fonds. Si vous avez un partenaire qui a été aussi économe que vous, c'est 240 000 $ qui pourraient être disponibles pour un acompte pour l'achat de votre maison.   James Parkyn: Oui, et encore une fois, quels que soient vos objectifs de placement, la clé c'est de laisser la magie de la capitalisation opérer pour vous. Plus tôt vous commencez, mieux vous vous retrouverez à long terme.  François Doyon La Rochelle: James, il y a de nombreux jeunes épargnants qui se demandent quel compte priorisé quand ils commencent? Le CELI, le CELIAPP ou le REER et pour ceux qui fondent une famille et qui ont des enfants on peut même ajouter le REEE. Que recommandes-tu à ces jeunes épargnants qui ont des objectifs différents et concurrents pour leur épargne et qui ne peuvent pas contribuer à tous ces types de comptes?  James Parkyn: Bonne question François. La réponse pour moi est probablement de faire votre CELI d'abord parce qu'il offre le plus de flexibilité, dans le sens qu'il n'y a pas de conséquences fiscales sur les fonds retirés de ce type de compte parce que vous pouvez remettre le montant retiré durant l'année d'imposition suivante. Il y aura beaucoup de promotion autour du CELIAPP et de la déductibilité fiscale des contributions, mais si pour une raison quelconque vous devez retirer les fonds, ils seront entièrement imposables et vous n'aurez pas la possibilité de remettre les fonds dans le compte. Donc, ce n'est pas une solution qui convient à tout le monde. Si vous êtes sûr d'acheter une maison et que vous disposez de revenus suffisants pour demander la déduction, le CELIAPP sera une excellente option. Vous pourriez même envisager de retirer de l'argent de votre CELI et de l'utiliser pour faire votre contribution au CELIAPP ensuite avec les économies d'impôt du CELIAPP vous pourriez remettre l'argent dans votre CELI.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Enfin, pour le moment, il n'y a qu'une poignée d'institutions financières qui offrent actuellement ce type de compte. Quand j'ai vérifié, Questrade, la Banque Royale et la Banque Nationale étaient les seules à l'offrir mais vous pouvez être certain que les autres institutions suivront dans les mois à venir.  James Parkyn: Enfin, si vous êtes présentement sur le point de faire l'achat d'une maison, puisqu'il n'y a pas de période de détention avant de pouvoir retirer les fonds de votre CELIAPP pour acheter une maison, vous pourriez techniquement ouvrir un compte aujourd'hui, faire votre contribution maximale pour l'année pour obtenir un remboursement d'impôt et ensuite retirer l'argent le lendemain si nécessaire.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Oui, c'est un bon point James, merci!    Revue du Rapport Annuel 2023 du Crédit Suisse sur les classe d'actifs mondiales :  François Doyon La Rochelle: Notre sujet principal aujourd'hui est la revue de la 15eme édition du Rapport Annuel 2023 du Crédit Suisse sur les classes d'actifs mondiales.  Nos auditeurs réguliers savent que c'est une tradition annuelle.  L'année dernière, nous avons consacré beaucoup d'efforts à la préparation de notre podcast n°38, dans lequel on a revu l'édition 2022. Nous recommandons à nos auditeurs de le réécouter car le contenu (l'impact d'une inflation élevée sur les actions et les obligations et une mise à jour sur les avantages de la diversification internationale) est toujours très pertinent par rapport à ce qui se passe aujourd'hui sur les marchés financiers. James, pourrais-tu présenter à nos auditeurs les faits saillants et expliquer le but du rapport?  James Parkyn: Absolument, pour ce qui en est du but de ce rapport, je citerai l'introduction : "Le Rapport documente les rendements à long terme des classes d'actifs mondiales sur plus d'un siècle, soit depuis 1900. L'un des principaux objectifs de ce rapport est d'aider les investisseurs à comprendre les marchés d'aujourd'hui à travers le prisme de l'histoire financière." Le rapport détaille les rendements et les risques liés aux investissements en actions, obligations, liquidités, devises et facteurs dans 35 pays et dans cinq indices composites différents. Il est produit en collaboration avec des historiens financiers renommés de la London Business School, les professeurs Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh et Mike Staunton, qui produisent la base de données DMS.  Ils sont également les co-auteurs du livre "The Triumph of the Optimists" publié en 2003.    François Doyon La Rochelle: La révision de ce rapport est une lecture annuelle incontournable pour nous.  J'ajouterais que c'est aussi un élément essentiel de la mission de notre podcast qui est de partager avec nos auditeurs les recherches fondées sur des preuves académiques.  James, je vais commencer par te poser les deux mêmes questions que l'année dernière.  Premièrement, pourquoi, en tant que gestionnaire de portefeuille, trouves-tu le rapport utile ?  James Parkyn: François, notre discipline, comme nos auditeurs réguliers le savent bien, est d'investir avec " l'état d'esprit de l'investisseur, axé sur le long terme ".  Nous ne voulons pas nous laisser distraire par le bruit à court terme des médias financiers et par la récente volatilité des marchés.  Ce défi est de taille et s'applique à tous les investisseurs, y compris les professionnels.  Nous l'avons souvent répété dans notre podcast : "C'est simple à dire mais pas facile à faire : Nous devons toujours être conscients que nous pouvons tomber dans le piège d'essayer de "prévoir l'avenir".  C'est pourquoi selon moi le rapport est si utile pour les gestionnaires de portefeuille.  Il nous aide à mettre en contexte les événements actuels des marchés financiers par rapport à son historique à long terme.    François Doyon La Rochelle: Je suis d'accord, après tous les événements économiques et géopolitiques majeurs de l'année dernière, il est crucial de prendre un temps d'arrêt et de remettre en perspective l'histoire des marchés financiers pour apprécier l'importance de la gestion du risque.    James Parkyn: Le rapport 2023, comme tous les rapports précédents, aborde la question de la nécessité d'une perspective à long terme afin de mieux comprendre le risque et le rendement des actions et des obligations.  Les événements de 2022 auraient dû rappeler aux investisseurs qu'ils doivent toujours rester aux aguets.  Larry Swedroe, auteur financier américain qu'on cite souvent,  l'a bien dit dans son article "Lessons from the Markets in 2022". Sa première leçon pour 2022 est la suivante : "Ce n'est pas parce qu'une chose ne s'est pas produite qu'elle ne peut pas se produire ou qu'elle ne se produira pas.  François Doyon La Rochelle: J'en viens maintenant à ma deuxième question, James : quels sont les points forts du rapport de cette année ?  James Parkyn: Pour répondre à ta question, je crois qu'il y a cinq points forts dans le rapport de cette année. Mon premier point fort est qu'ils insistent sur l'importance d'une perspective à long terme et donc d'une appréciation des lois du risque et du rendement des actions et des obligations.  Cela commence par l'explication du fait que même 20 ans de données sont une période trop courte pour être utile à la prise de décisions en matière d'allocation d'actifs.    Je cite un extrait du rapport : "La volatilité des marchés signifie que, même sur de longues périodes, nous pouvons encore connaître des rendements "inhabituels". Prenons l'exemple d'un investisseur qui, au début de l'année 2000, se serait penché sur le rendement annualisé réel de 10,5 % des actions mondiales au cours des 20 années précédentes et l'aurait considéré comme un historique "à long terme", et donc comme une indication pour l'avenir. Mais au cours de la décennie suivante, notre investisseur aurait obtenu un rendement réel négatif de -0,6 % par an sur les actions mondiales".  François Doyon La Rochelle: C'est tout à fait vrai et c'est pourquoi il est si important de faire attention au "biais de récence".  Le rapport parle également d'une perspective à long terme pour les obligations.  Qu'est-ce que le rapport dit, James ?  James Parkyn: Je rappelle à nos auditeurs que pour la plupart des investisseurs, le biais de récence est basé sur ce qui s'est passé l'année dernière.  Le rapport plaide en faveur d'un horizon temporel beaucoup plus long. Ainsi, pour répondre à ta question sur les obligations, je partage une autre citation du rapport : « De longues périodes historiques sont également nécessaires pour comprendre les rendements des obligations. Au cours des 40 années qui se sont écoulées jusqu'à la fin de 2021, l'indice obligataire mondial a fourni un rendement réel annualisé de 6,3 %, ce qui n'est pas très éloigné des 7,4 % des actions mondiales. » Je pense et le rapport supporte qu'il serait insensé d'extrapoler des rendements obligataires de cette ampleur dans le futur. Le rapport poursuit et je cite : « Ces 40 années ont été un âge d'or pour les obligations, tout comme les années 1980 et 1990 ont été un âge d'or pour les actions. En fait, le rendement réel des obligations mondiales en 2022 était de -27 %. »  François Doyon La Rochelle: Il est très difficile, voire impossible, de prévoir et d'anticiper avec succès les changements de direction du marché.  Dans notre dernier Podcast #51, nous avons abordé les résultats de la gestion active vs passive pour 2022.  La pire catégorie sur les 20 répertoriées était l'immobilier mondial avec un taux de réussite de seulement 20 %, elle a été légèrement dépassée par la catégorie des obligations d'entreprise avec un taux de réussite de 22,6 % qui elle-même a été légèrement battue par la catégorie des marchés émergents avec un taux de réussite de 23,4 %.  La grande majorité des gestionnaires actifs ont donc très mal performés par rapport aux fonds passifs dans ces classes d'actifs.  James Parkyn: Exactement.  Mon deuxième point fort du Rapport 2023 est lié au premier, et je cite : "La prime de risque reçue historiquement en investissant dans les actions et les obligations par rapport aux bons du Trésor, existe pour une raison. C'est un rendement additionnel nécessaire pour la prise de risque liée à la volatilité négative. »  Comme nos auditeurs le savent bien, nous avons connu quatre marchés baissiers des actions depuis 2000 et nous devons être payés pour prendre un tel risque.  François Doyon La Rochelle: C'est tout à fait logique quand on pense à 2020, avec la pandémie, le monde a connu son troisième marché baissier en moins de 20 ans.  Les marchés ont ensuite connu une reprise remarquable et la volatilité a de nouveau diminué. Cependant, en 2022, la volatilité a de nouveau augmenté, et les actions comme les obligations ont fortement chuté en raison des inquiétudes liées à l'inflation et à la hausse des taux, ainsi qu'à la guerre entre la Russie et l'Ukraine. Il s'agissait du quatrième marché baissier depuis 2000. Le rapport explique comment la diversification dans un portefeuille peut réduire ces risques.   James Parkyn: Oui, mais pour bénéficier de la valeur ajoutée de la diversification, un investisseur doit accepter que ça se fait sur le long terme et qu'il peut être déçu à court terme. Le rendement négatif historique en 2022 de l'allocation classique équilibrée 60/40 actions/obligations en est le parfait exemple.   François Doyon La Rochelle: À mon avis, ce point a également été soulevé dans le rapport de l'année dernière, à savoir que les corrélations négatives entre les actions et les obligations n'étaient pas la norme à long terme.  Le rapport indique clairement que les actions et les obligations ont eu une corrélation historiquement positive et que les 20 dernières années de corrélation négative avant 2022 n'étaient pas la norme.    James Parkyn: Nous avons beaucoup abordé ce sujet dans les derniers podcasts.  Encore une fois, les investisseurs doivent avoir une vision à long terme. Mon troisième point fort du rapport 2023 est le thème de la stagflation.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Pour nos auditeurs il serait peut-être bon de préciser que la stagflation est un terme issu des année 70, début 80, qui caractérise une économie avec une faible croissance, un taux de chômage élevé et accompagné d'une forte inflation.   James Parkyn: Le rapport met en garde qu'il y a un "consensus sur le fait que les conditions reviendront à la normale avec le rétablissement d'une faible inflation".  Il cite les universitaires Arnott et Shakernia : "Un regard plus attentif sur l'histoire mettrait en évidence la rareté de ce phénomène.  Selon eux, il s'agirait d'un résultat du "meilleur quintile", le "pire quintile" étant la persistance de l'inflation pendant une décennie.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Pour moi, ce point suppose qu'on peut prévoir l'avenir, et précisément la direction des taux d'inflation, et par le fait-même comment les marchés financiers vont réagir.  James Parkyn: Je suis d'accord, mais le rapport montre que l'inflation et les taux d'intérêt pourraient ne pas baisser aussi rapidement que prévu si on se base sur la perspective à très long terme des données DMS qui sous-tendent le rapport. Mon quatrième point fort est le sujet dans lequel le rapport aborde la grande question : "Qu'est-ce qu'une couverture contre l'inflation ?" Par exemple, la plupart des investisseurs pensent que les actions constituent une protection contre l'inflation.  Le rapport fournit de nombreuses preuves que les actions, ainsi que les obligations, ont tendance à enregistrer des performances médiocres lorsque l'inflation est plus élevée.  Il souligne également que les actions et les obligations affichent de moins bonnes performances pendant les périodes des hausses des taux d'intérêt.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Les actions ne sont pas, comme on le prétend souvent, la meilleure protection contre l'inflation. Le rapport montre bien que "les rendements se détériorent autant pour les actions que pour les obligations lorsque l'inflation augmente". Le rapport montre également que "les actions se sont particulièrement bien comportées en termes réels lorsque l'inflation était faible". Par contre, en période de déflation, les actions ont en fait "produit des rendements inférieurs à ceux des obligations gouvernementales". Nous en avons discuté dans le Podcast n°38 de l'année dernière.  James Parkyn: Oui, nous en avons discuté, et le rapport 2023 souligne ce point encore très clairement cette année, en s'appuyant sur les données à long terme concernant les rendements des actions.  Je cite : « Bien que les actions aient enregistré d'excellents rendements à long terme, elles ne sont pas et n'ont jamais été la protection contre l'inflation que de nombreux observateurs ont suggérée. »  Malgré cela, on pense généralement que les actions doivent être une bonne couverture contre l'inflation dans la mesure où elles ont eu des rendements à long terme supérieurs à l'inflation. Toutefois, leur rendement élevé ex post (après coup) s'explique mieux par une prime de risque élevée pour les actions.  La nuance essentielle est la suivante : « Il est important de faire la distinction entre battre l'inflation et se couvrir contre l'inflation. »  François Doyon La Rochelle: Les rendements des marchés financiers en 2022 l'ont prouvé. Les actions ont baissé au cours d'une année d'inflation élevée. Le rapport explique que "la plupart des professionnels de la finance sont trop jeunes pour se souvenir d'une période avec une inflation élevée, de marchés obligataires baissiers et des années où les actions et les obligations ont fortement baissé ensemble".  James Parkyn: Le rapport fournit l'analyse à long terme nécessaire pour mettre les événements de 2022 en contexte. Je vais maintenant partager mon cinquième et dernier point fort, lorsque le rapport aborde le thème des commodités en tant que classe d'actifs et l'avantage de les détenir en période d'inflation.   François Doyon La Rochelle: On entend beaucoup parler qu'investir dans les commodités offre une couverture contre l'inflation et qu'elles ne sont pas corrélées avec les actions et les obligations.  C'est quoi le rôle joué par les commodités en tant que classe d'actifs ? est-ce qu'elles offrent une couverture contre l'inflation que les actions n'offrent pas ?   James Parkyn: Je cite un extrait du rapport : "Une des conclusions clés à retenir, très pertinente aujourd'hui alors que les stratégies 60/40 actions/obligations ont déçu les investisseurs, est que les contrats à terme sur les commodités s'avèrent être un "diversifiant", étant négativement corrélés avec les obligations, faiblement corrélés avec les actions et statistiquement une couverture contre l'inflation elle-même."  Cependant ils poursuivent en disant que : "Le problème est que la taille limitée de la classe d'actifs, fait en sorte que ce n'est pas une solution d'investissement. » C'est donc une bonne chose en théorie, mais ce n'est pas réaliste autant pour les investisseurs institutionnels que pour les particuliers.  François Doyon La Rochelle: James, tu fais référence ici des contrats à terme sur les commodités mais il est intéressant aussi de soulever que le rapport s'est également penché sur l'investissement direct dans les commodités.  James Parkyn: Les conclusions du rapport indiquent que l'achat de commodités directement n'offrent pas de couverture contre l'inflation. Je cite : « Nous constatons que les investissements dans les commodités individuelles ont eux-mêmes produit des rendements à long terme très faibles. »  François Doyon La Rochelle: Le rapport contient d'autres éléments importants :  Comme on le dit régulièrement à nos auditeurs dans notre podcast, l'histoire peut fournir des indices sur l'avenir, mais il convient d'être prudent en matière de prévisions.   James Parkyn: Oui, les résultats du rapport sont des moyennes à long terme couvrant de nombreuses conditions économiques différentes. En effet, les actions et les obligations sont volatiles et les rendements varient considérablement d'une année sur l'autre. Comme nous l'avons dit au début du podcast, nous avons besoin de séries chronologiques très longues pour tirer des conclusions sur les rendements des investissements. Le rapport du Crédit Suisse nous démontre que même une période de 20ans n'est souvent pas assez longue.  François Doyon La Rochelle: James, pour conclure, compte tenu des enseignements tirés de ce rapport et du contexte de hausse des taux d'intérêt et d'inflation élevée mais qui est en lente diminution, comment les investisseurs devraient-ils envisager leurs portefeuilles aujourd'hui ?  James Parkyn: François je crois qu'il est approprié de répéter la conclusion de notre podcast n° 38 sur le rapport 2022.  Il est également important de se rappeler que la hausse des taux et l'inflation élevée ne sont que deux facteurs de risque auxquels les investisseurs sont confrontés.  Les investisseurs en actions ont connu des périodes où les actifs sûrs, c'est à dire les obligations et les liquidités, ont été de bons contrepoids à la volatilité des actions. N'oubliez pas qu'il existe plusieurs risques différents contre lesquels vous essayez de vous défendre.  Il y aura des périodes où les obligations seront vraiment très utiles. Je recommande à nos auditeurs de toujours réfléchir à leurs objectifs à long terme, à leur profil de risque, à leur capacité à prendre des risques et à leur horizon temporel. En plus ils devraient considérer leurs plans de décaissement de leurs portefeuilles. Tous ces éléments devraient être considérés dans leurs réflexions concernant la structure de leurs portefeuilles.   François Doyon La Rochelle: Pour conclure, je citerai un extrait du rapport : "Les mauvaises années arrivent et, lorsqu'elles se produisent, il est réconfortant de se rappeler les résultats à long terme d'avoir un portefeuille diversifié mondialement. Pour les investisseurs en actifs à risque, en particulier dans les actions, les résultats à long terme représentent vraiment le triomphe des optimistes."   James Parkyn: C'est une excellente citation, François, et j'espère que nos auditeurs s'en inspireront. Par ailleurs, nous espérons que la récente fusion d'UBS et du Crédit Suisse en une méga-banque ne mettra pas un terme à ce rapport et qu'il y aura une édition 2024.    Conclusion :  François Doyon La Rochelle: Merci James Parkyn d'avoir partagé ton expertise et ton savoir.  James Parkyn: il m'a fait plaisir Francois.  François Doyon La Rochelle: Hé bien c'est tout pour ce 52ième épisode de Sujet Capital!  Nous espérons que vous avez aimé.  N'hésitez pas à nous envoyer vos questions et suggestions. Vous pouvez nous joindre par courriel à: sujetcapital@pwlcapital.com  De plus, si vous aimez notre podcast, partagez-le avec votre famille et vos amis et si vous n'y êtes pas abonné, faites-le SVP.  Encore une fois, merci d'être à l'écoute et joignez-vous à nous pour notre prochain épisode qui sortira le 8 juin.    A bientôt!  - Épisode 51 : Mise à jour sur la Gestion Active vs. Passive & la crise de solvabilité des banques mondiales — Sujet Capital par James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle  - Épisode 45 : L'investissement en obligation dans un nouvel environnement de taux d'intérêt — Sujet Capital  par James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle  - Épisode 38 : Revue du rapport annuel 2022 de Crédit Suisse sur les rendements des investissements mondiaux — Sujet Capital par James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle  - Compte d'épargne libre d'impôt pour l'achat d'une première propriété (CELIAPP) - Canada.ca par Gouvernement du Canada  - Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2023 – Credit Suisse (credit-suisse.com) par Le Credit Suisse  -Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns: Dimson, Elroy, Marsh, Paul, Staunton, Mike: 8601416069784: Books - Amazon.ca par Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh & Mike Staunton 

Our guest this week is Dr. Andrew Lo. Dr. Lo is the Charles E. & Susan T. Harris Professor, a professor of finance, and the director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His current research spans five areas, including evolutionary models of investor behavior and adaptive markets, systemic risk, and financial regulation, among others. Dr. Lo has published extensively in academic journals and authored a number of books including In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio, which he cowrote with Stephen Foerster. He has received numerous awards for his work and contributions to modern finance research throughout his career. He holds a bachelor's in economics from Yale University and an AM and Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.BackgroundBioIn Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest, by Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. FoersterAdaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought, by Andrew W. LoHistory“Thirty Maidens of Geneva,” the Tontine Coffee-House, thetch.blog.com, Aug. 5, 2019.“Why 18th Century Swiss Bankers Bet on the Lives of Young Girls,” by Stephen Foerster, sfoerster-5338.medium.com, Sept. 2, 2021.John Maynard KeynesBenjamin GrahamHarry MarkowitzHarry MarkowitzModern Portfolio TheoryWhat Is a Gunslinger? William F. SharpeWilliam F. SharpeWhat Is the Sharpe Ratio?Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)“Keynes the Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis,” by David Chambers, Elroy Dimson, and Justin Foo, papers.ssrn.com, Sept. 26, 2013.Eugene F. FamaEugene FamaWhat Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis?“Algorithmic Models of Investor Behavior,” by Andrew Lo and Alexander Remorov, eqderivatives.com, 2021.“In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: Eugene Fama,” Interview with Andrew Lo and Eugene Fama, youtube.com, Dec. 15, 2016.“Why Artificial Intelligence May Not Be as Useful or as Challenging as Artificial Stupidity,” by Andrew Lo, hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu, July 1, 2019.John C. Bogle John Bogle Cost Matters HypothesisCharles D. EllisCharley EllisGreenwich Associates“Charley Ellis: Why Active Investing Is Still a Loser's Game,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 27, 2020.Other“7 Principles to Help You Create Your Perfect Portfolio,” by Robert Powell, marketwatch.com, Nov. 10, 2021.

Finance professor Elroy Dimson says, "risk means more things can happen than will happen."  Lurking beneath that comment is the sobering realization that if the COVID crisis had never occurred, something just as wild and unpredictable could have replaced it....

In this episode of "Keen On", Andrew is joined by William J. Bernstein, the author of "The Delusions of Crowds", to discuss Bitcoin and the Gamestop/Robinhood saga, as well to touch upon subjects like ISIS and even conspiracy groups like QAnon. William J. Bernstein is a neurologist, co-founder of Efficient Frontier Advisors, an investment management firm, and has written several titles on finance and economic history. He has contributed to the peer-reviewed finance literature and has written for several national publications, including Money Magazine and The Wall Street Journal. He has produced several finance titles, and also three volumes of history, The Birth of Plenty, A Splendid Exchange, and Masters of the Word, about, respectively, the economic growth inflection of the early 19th century, the history of world trade, and the effects of access to technology on human relations and politics. He was also the 2017 winner of the James R. Vertin Award from CFA Institute. Bernstein is a proponent of the equity or index allocation school of thought, believing that all equity selection strategies should be focused on allocating between asset classes, rather than selecting individual stocks and bonds, or from the timing of their sales. Bernstein's first book, The Intelligent Asset Allocator, makes this case in detail; his second book, The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio, is aimed for those less comfortable with statistical thought. It also puts asset-class returns into long-term historical perspective. Bernstein is an advocate for modern portfolio theory, which stands in stark contrast to the view that skilled managers can succeed in picking particular investments that will outperform the market, whether through market timing, momentum investing, or finding assets whose future value have been underestimated by the market. He argues that the financial research literature shows that most return is determined by the asset allocation of the portfolio rather than by asset selection. In 1996, Bernstein introduced Coward's Portfolio, a popular form of lazy portfolio. He explained "a rational coward might split their equity exposure equally between S&P, EAFE, US small, and foreign small stocks." A contemporary implementation of the Portfolio includes 40% short-term bonds, and 15% international equity evenly divided into Europe, Pacific, and emerging markets funds. Bernstein's third book, The Birth of Plenty, is a history of the world's standard of living; it proposes four conditions that have historically been necessary for it to rise. His fourth book, A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World, published in 2008 by Grove Atlantic, is a history of trade. In 2009 his fifth book was published "The Investor's Manifesto: Preparing for Prosperity, Armageddon, and Everything in Between" which continues the theme of asset allocation in a more accessible way. In 2014 his sixth book, "Rational Expectations: Asset Allocation for Investing Adults" was published. It updated his earlier books on investing to cover the position after the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09, and the most recent research on investing, including that by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton, authors of "Triumph of the Optimists". Bernstein holds a PhD in chemistry and an MD; he practiced neurology until retiring from the field. He lives in Portland, Oregon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In today's podcast we discuss the top performing stocks of the last 100 years.  Which countries have had the best performing stock markets, and which factors drive outperformance.  Every year, in association with Credit Suisse, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School, release The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook which analyses global market returns since 1900. The 2020 edition gives us the insights gleaned from examining 120 years of global markets data. The team look at stocks, bonds, bills, inflation and currency for 23 national markets and for the world as a whole.  Here is a link to their book on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3avJH9AAfter analyzing the lifetime returns of 25,967 common stocks, Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University determined that just 1,092 of those stocks -- or about 4% of the total -- generated all of the $34.8 trillion in wealth created for shareholders by the stock market between July 1926 and December 2016. Even more striking, a mere 50 stocks accounted for well over one-third (39.3%) of that amount. Over a 90-year span, 96% of all stocks collectively performed no better than risk-free 1-month Treasury bills.The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook: https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/studies-publications.htmlHendrik Bessembinder Paper https://tinyurl.com/fw1mri8lPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)

In today's podcast Patrick Boyle interviews Victor Haghani, former Long Term Capital Management Partner about Salomon Brothers in the days of Liars Poker, What it was like working at LTCM, different approaches to investing, short squeezes, arbitrage and how Victor invests today. We talk briefly about the GameStop short squeeze, Melvin Capital and why Steve Cohen and Citadel might have invested more money.Victor has spent more than 40 years in the world of finance, from the London School of Economics to Salomon Brothers to LTCM and finally to Elm Partners, Victor has a wealth of knowledge to share about indexing, value investing, momentum risk management and international diversification.Subscribe to Victors mailing list: https://elmfunds.com/blog/Victor's Ted Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yJWABvUXiU&t=26sBooks Mentioned in the video: Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis: https://amzn.to/3asrt7NWhen Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein: https://amzn.to/3pKOrxjInside The Yield Curve by Martin Leibowitz :https://amzn.to/2NVkaxHTriumph of The Optimists by Elroy Dimson: https://amzn.to/2LcixL5 Patrick's Books:Statistics for The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleSupport the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)

Lior Grantz is the Chief- Editor and Founder of Wealth Research Group, he has been called a thrill-seeking entrepreneur by his team, has built and runs numerous successful businesses, and has traveled to over 30 countries in the past decade in pursuit of thrills and opportunities, gaining valuable knowledge and experience. He has been actively investing in the markets since the age of 16 and is now bringing the same proven strategies he has implemented himself. He is an advocate of meticulous risk management, balanced asset allocation, and proper position sizing. As a deep-value investor, Lior loves researching businesses that are off the radar and completely unknown to most financial publications.  KEY POINTS Covid-19's economic impact in the U.S. The effects of "helicopter money" Why the stock market increased 40% in one month despite the crisis Investing strategies during a recession Wholesaling real estate strategies   Real Estate versus the Stock Market The real causes of inflation LIGHTNING QUESTIONS What was your biggest hurdle getting started in real estate investing, and how did you overcome it? Finding the right partners. Do you have a personal habit that contributes to your success? Reading educational materials and stuff that Lior don't agree with at least 1 hour a day. Do you have an online resource that you find valuable? https://www.zerohedge.com/ (https://www.zerohedge.com/) https://www.futuremoneytrends.com/ (https://www.futuremoneytrends.com/) https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIHdDJ0tjn_3j-FS7s_X1kQ (Valuetainment) What book would you recommend to the listeners and why? https://www.amazon.com/Napoleon-Hills-Keys-Success-Achievement-ebook/dp/B001R11CR6 (Keys to Success) book by Napoleon Hill https://www.amazon.com/Think-Grow-Rich-Landmark-Bestseller/dp/1585424331 (Think and Grow Rich) book by Napoleon Hill https://www.amazon.com/Triumph-Optimists-Global-Investment-Returns/dp/0691091943 (Triumph of the Optimists) book by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton If you were to give advice to your 20-year-old self to get started in real estate investing, what would it be? Don't waste your time and look for the right people. It's the first realizing what you're looking to do. RESOURCES Visithttp://m/gp/product/B00NB86OYE/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=jacob0ee-20&camp=1789&creative=9325&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=B00NB86OYE&linkId=100a9d2905599266aa7088bba0a33d55 ( Audible) for a free trial and free audiobook download! https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/ (Website) https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/goldplaybook/ (https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/goldplaybook/) https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/round2/ (https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/round2/) https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/list/ (https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/list/)

In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, stock markets have fallen around the world. Our guest on this episode, Professor Elroy Dimson, is someone who understands more than just about anyone else alive today how financial markets have responded to economic shocks throughout history.

Ben Yeoh is the Senior Portfolio Manager, Co-manager of Global Equities, a specialist in Healthcare and ESG Champion at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Global Asset Management (GAM UK). Ben is also a member of the Investor Advisory Group at the Financial Reporting Council (FRC). He chairs the Responsible Investment Advisory Committee at Royal London Asset Management. He is also the co-author of New Text Book on ESG Investing by the Chartered Financial Analyst Institute (CFA UK) Highlights: Looking beyond the causal drivers into more active stewardship and long term sustainability There is a spectrum of capital and the markets will decide on how to react to corporates without sustainability strategy or if they decide not to price in carbon A lot of companies are over-borrowing from human capital, environmental and natural capital or cutting R&D ‘We want to avoid companies creating contingent liabilities or liabilities you don’t see on the balance sheet, which are typically extra financial, call them ESG.’ We will need abatement in hard to abate sectors like cement, fertilizers, flying, steel making, aluminum, plastics, or all that. Integrated vs exclusionary ESG vs positive impact Degrowth movement vs growth and decoupled growth ‘You need systems thinking in combination with personal agency’ ‘Stewardship Code 2020 is going to be a really important piece ... because it's putting the onus on a lot of people in the investment chain to report in a much more transparent way. I'm hopeful that is going to raise the bar in terms of what we're looking for on a systems level.’ Time Stamp: [03:38] What is sustainable and impact investing? [04:43] Active stewardship, SDGs and long-term net benefit. [07:08] Mark Carney on the spectrum of capital  [09:48] RBC as a purpose-driven organisation committing $100bn in sustainable Finance (http://www.rbc.com/community-sustainability/_assets-custom/pdf/OurCommitment_EN.PDF)  by 2025 [11:00] Integrated ESG strategy with deep stewardship [12:30] Over-borrowing from contingent liabilities and the impact on capital and returns   [13:50] Creating sustainable capital, alpha and return  [14:50] Active stewardship  [16:29] How Ben started his journey into ESG and sustainability  [19:45] Cross-silo thinking [20:20] Informal Sustainability mingle [22:00] Improvement of data availability and access  [24:18] Trends and growth of sustainable assets in all classes  [26:23] The opportunities in sustainable and impact investment [29:00] The need for abatement on certain sectors [31:00] What investors are looking for and is important to them [33:00] Climate change perceptions & YALE survey [37:50] Ben’s approach to Integrated ESG vs exclusionary vs active ownership vs positive impact [41:00] Rotten Documentary > S2E3 - WATER [43:50] Responsibility of businesses: Who is responsible for irresponsibility business? [46:60] Influencing demand-side consumer behavior [49:00] Economic approaches as solutions and interconnection with the roles of people and companies  [51:50] Trust Barometers  [52:10] Third party certifications > ILA & Partners, Impact Tracker, B-Corp  [54:30] The updated UK Stewardship Code 2020 [55:10] How do we scale ? [56:45] What inspired Ben  Useful links: Ben Yeoh’s Linkedin (https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjamin-yeoh-445133/) Ben Yeoh’s personal blog - Then Do Better  (https://www.thendobetter.com/) Royal Bank of Canada Global Assets Management  (https://www.rbcgam.com/en/landing) Mark Carney of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/mark-carney/biography) Bank of England Climate Change (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/climate-change) Elroy Dimson (https://uk.linkedin.com/in/elroy-dimson-4a94687)   Andrew Parry of Hermes Investment Management (https://audioboom.com/posts/7189177-andrew-parry-of-hermes-investment-management-sustainability-is-an-imperative-and-the-beta-of-fu) Alex Edmans (http://alexedmans.com/) author of Grow The Pie (https://www.growthepie.net/) Global Sustainable Investment Review 2018 (http://www.gsi-alliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/GSIR_Review2018F.pdf)   Fiona Reynolds (https://twitter.com/Fireynolds) of UN PRI (https://www.unpri.org/) Yale Climate Opinion Maps 2019 (https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us/) The RBC ESG Exchange (https://global.rbcgam.com/europe/institutional/esg/content/default.fs) Colin Mayer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Mayer) author of Prosperity (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Prosperity-Better-Business-Makes-Greater/dp/0198824009) Claire Spedding Dykta (https://uk.linkedin.com/in/clairespedding) of National Grid Kate Raworth (https://www.kateraworth.com/) of Doughnut Economics Tyler Cowan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyler_Cowen) > Growth Rotten Documentary (https://www.netflix.com/title/80146284?s=i&trkid=14170286) - Ref: Season 2 Episode 3 > WATER Amazon commitment to NET ZERO by 2040 (https://fortune.com/2019/09/19/jeff-bezos-details-amazons-net-zero-carbon-emissions-2040-goals-climate-change/) ILA & Partners (https://www.linkedin.com/company/impact-leaders-advisors) Cary Krosinky of Sustainable Finance Institute and Carbon Tracker (https://audioboom.com/posts/7348948-cary-krosinsky-let-the-best-impact-strategy-win) BCorp Certification (https://bcorporation.net/) UK Stewardship Code 2020 (https://www.frc.org.uk/investors/uk-stewardship-code/http-frc-org-uk-investors-uk-stewardship-code) Event: Sustainability Mingle (https://www.eventbrite.com/e/mingle-arts-business-sustainability-meet-new-people-have-new-ideas-tickets-71267465909) 7:30pm, 14th Nov 2019, Theater Delhi, London* * More events to come.  Connect with JP Dallmann on Linkedin (https://www.linkedin.com/in/jp-dallmann/) , Twitter (https://twitter.com/JPDallmann) , or Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/inspiredbyjp/) . Contact us to help you transition into Sustainable & Impact Investing - ILA & Partners (https://www.linkedin.com/company/impact-leaders-advisors) How to incorporate SDGs into your business - Fast Forward 2030 (http://fastforward2030.com/) Find talent and careers with impact - Realchangers (https://www.realchangers.com/) Impact Leaders is produced by Podcast Publishing (http://podcastpublishing.help/)

The second of two episodes recorded in partnership with CFA UK at their conference on the topic of ESG Investing and the associated practical realities, where we spoke to a number of the speakers from the event. In Part 2, we caught up with: 1/ Professor Elroy Dimson, Chairman for the Centre for Endowment Asset Management at the Cambridge Judge Business School, part of the University of Cambridge 2/ Faith Ward, Chief Responsible Investment Officer, Brunel Pension Partnership 3/ Fadi Zaher, Head of Index Research & Development, Legal & General Investment Management 4/ Will Goodhart, Chief Executive Officer, CFA UK For more information from CFA UK, visit www.cfauk.org

I was delighted to meet Professor Dimson at the Science of Retirement Conference earlier this year as I have had his book ‘The Triumph of the Optimists' on bookshelf for many years. Elroy Dimson is Emeritus Professor of Finance at the London Business School. His research focuses on investing for the long term, and he has become well known for their studies of the investment performance since 1900 of financial assets in 23 countries. Professor Dimson discussed the dilemma for impending and current retirees. Your ideal retirement plan will see you spending your last penny in your last day on this planet. As we don't know how long we'll live, we need to plan to leave a bequest. There may be undesired and unforeseen expenses. Sticking your money in the bank will mean you'll have lower purchasing power when you spend the money than when you saved it. So, you need to find a better return on your money. Professor Elroy discusses which type of investments you could consider and why. Overall, Professor Dimson believes it's best to create and stick to a long-term plan. Tune in to hear Professor Dimson on episode 025 of The Retirement Café Podcast.

We recently published The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2. The first book was a hit, with MoneyWeek concluding that it “should be on every investor’s bookshelf.” But we made the second volume even better – we expanded it to include 41 hand-selected investment articles, written by some of the most respected money managers and investment researchers in the world. We thought it would be fun to bring on some of the authors so that they could read their specific chapter from the book. That’s what you’re getting in today’s special bonus episode. If you’re interested in picking up a copy of The Best Investment Writing, Volume 2, head on over to Amazon or our publisher’s website, which is Harriman House. Also, know that your purchase would benefit charity, as all writer-proceeds go to the charity of the specific author’s choosing. So, enough from me, let’s let Elroy take over with this special bonus episode.

Today, we talk fraud. If we think about some of the most prominent frauds in recent history – from the Bernie Madoff scandal, the LIBOR case or the collapse of Enron, they all seem to have a number of complexities to them. However, as you will hear, all fraud follows a simple logic. That logic is based on trust.  My guest is Dan Davies. Dan is a former regulatory economist with the Bank of England. He has worked at a variety of investment banks and always had a fascination with the many larger-than-life financial scandals in we have all hear about. Scandals like the collapse of Barings Bank caused by rogue trader Nick Leeson (and the subject of the film “Rogue Trader” featuring Ewan McGregor), the Swiss Nazi gold case, and many more. Such is Dan's fascination with fraud that he recently wrote a fascinating book on the topic entitled Lying for Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of Our World. This is a very readable book that gives you almost everything you need to know about fraud. Nassim Taleb, of Black Swan fame says that “if you want to learn to fend fraud, read this. And if you want to commit fraud…don't. But if you absolutely must, read this first.” We get into the various topics covered in the book including: The concept of the “optimum level of fraud” in and economy – this sounds counter-intuitive but because both fraud and economic growth depend on trust, there will always be a level of fraud in an advanced economy; The types and characteristics of fraud; The mechanics of different types of fraud, including lots of examples; Rogue traders; Why frauds have a “snowball effect”; The role of primal, human emotions in fraud Much more Show notes: Lying for Money – at Amazon's UK site Dan on Twitter Frontline Analysts Mentioned during the episode: The Barings Bank collapse The Nazi gold case The Savings and Loan scandal Silk road The Speed of Trust by Stephen Covey The Smartest Guys in the Room – The Amazing Rise and the Scandalous Fall of Enron by Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind The Hour Between Dog and Wolf by John Coates The 1980s Medicare fraud The UK Payment Protection Insurance (PPI) Scandal “ Enron's Open Secrets” by Malcolm Gladwell Fred Goodwin The Kray Twins Triumph of the Optimists by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Get your free audio book and 30 day free trial at Audible: US listeners: get your free trial and audio book at Audible UK listeners: get your free trial and audio book at Audible _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ Like what you heard? Subscribe and/or leave a rating and review on iTunes: http://apple.co/1PjLmK Subscribe on Stitcher: http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/all-things-risk/the-all-things-risk-podcast Subscribe on Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/ben-cattaneo Follow the podcast on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RiskThings Drop us a note: allthingsrisk@gmail.com

Episode 102 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover Meb’s Tweets of the Week, some write-in questions, Twitter questions, and our first-ever call-in question. We discuss the “Stay Rich” portfolio, and the unfortunate reality that even the safest portfolios can suffer ~25% drawdowns. Next, there’s discussion of stock buybacks and a recent push from Senator Tammy Baldwin to introduce a bill that would prohibit companies from repurchasing their own shares (she claims it’s exacerbating the wealth gap). Then, with volatility showing some life in the market, there’s discussion of volatility clustering. Next up is the investing service, Robinhood, which is now referring to calls and puts as “going up” and “going down.” Also, an ETF for companion pets filed by Gabelli. We then dive into questions. Some that you’ll hear Meb address include: How do you keep a level head when markets are imploding around you? Meb and Elroy Dimson discussed the historical returns of housing and indicated that owning a house is not a high-performing investment, relative to other asset classes. However, if the alternative to buying a house is paying rent, often at a similar cost to a monthly mortgage payment, how does this factor in to the assessment of the investment? I understand that any given strategy can underperform the market for long periods of time. What is a reasonable time-frame to fairly evaluate the results of any particular strategy? Valuation difference in countries is often caused by sector structure. Can you explain that? The AUM of Target Date Funds was at $250B in '08. Many investors were shocked at the bad performance in '08. Target Date Funds AUM is now $900B. What's the industry's level of responsibility to educate? Is Russia worth the current political risk for long term investor (5-7 years)? If so, is it best to look at specific Russian equities or an index such as the RSX? All this and more in Episode 102.

To celebrate the milestone of reaching 100 episodes, we’re thrilled to welcome Professor Elroy Dimson, author of Meb’s favorite investing book of all time, Triumph of the Optimists. Per Meb’s request, Elroy starts by giving us a summation of his research history which led to Triumph of the Optimists. He had a heritage in producing indexes and began reaching out to researchers across the globe in hopes of accessing different data sets. Looking at all the aggregated data, it became clear that from a long-term perspective, people who had invested in risky securities at the beginning of the century had done very well. People who had bought bonds and T-bills had not performed as well. The optimists had triumphed. Next, Meb brings up a quote from Elroy about a controversial finding regarding the lack of correlation between economic growth and stock market performance. If anything, the relationship was reverse. Elroy expounds upon this, telling us that if it’s obvious that a market is growing, that’s public information. You can’t trade that since everyone else knows too. So, if you investing in countries where GDP has been growing, that could mean you’re too late. Meb steers the conversation toward valuation, market cap weightings, and home country bias. Elroy walks us through the market cap concept, touching on the historical Austrian empire as well as the Japanese bubble. This leads to a lesson in finance, which includes real yields today, the Gordon Model, the multiple people are willing to pay today (which is higher), and the takeaway that “high valuations don’t necessarily mean that we’re going to see asset prices collapse” – they’re a reflection of the low interest rates we have today. Meb asks about bonds, and whether Elroy has seen another historical period of negative yielding sovereigns. When you look at real rates, how does it play out for future returns? Elroy tells us that real (inflation adjusted) rates are better to consider than nominal rates. And it turns out, real rates have been lower. Negative real rates are not all that rare – what is rare is so many countries experiencing them at the same time. This dovetails into a conversation about inflation and currency hedging. Elroy provides some color on currency issues but notes that hedging is not required if you’re a long-term investor. There’s plenty more in this centennial episode: factors… growth stocks versus value stocks… historical returns of housing… even stamps, musical instruments and the investment returns of a good Bordeaux. How does it compare to that of equities? Find out in Episode 100.

Which stockmarket investments do best? Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton seek the answers

Are you looking for a way to choose better investments? If so, consider “factor investing.” Professor Elroy Dimson of the Cambridge Judge Business School believes factor investing leads to better results. This is because, he says, if you expose your portfolio to a variety of factors (different from just investing in different industries or sectors), these distinctive attributes have a very important impact on how a portfolio performs. When selecting investments, consider factors like: Sensitivity to inflation Company size High/low dividend yield How to talk to your parents about their finances. Doug shares “10 Secrets to Talking to Your Parents About Money.” It’s hard to discuss money with a parent, but it is essential for solid financial planning. This top ten list is available for people who need help beginning that conversation. To receive your copy of the list, enter your email address here: (function(d, s, id) { var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//forms.aweber.com/form/55/1489833555.js"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, "script", "aweber-wjs-eutfn5nkf")); For a free download of Dr. Elroy Dimson’s book Financial Market History: Reflections on the Past for Investors Today click here: CFA Institute website. (The Kindle version is also available for free on Amazon.) To learn more about Roger Whitney and his 5-minute retirement plan, go to rogerwhitney.com/5minuteretirementmakeover. If you’re not already receiving updates on new episodes, sign up now, and as a special bonus, receive Doug’s free ebook The Retirement Planning Book.

Jonathan Davis talks to Elory Dimson of the Judge Business School at Cambridge University about interest rate cuts and rises and how they affect share prices.

In episode #251, Elroy Dimson discusses his research on John Maynard Keynes, collectables, and indices, and draws out some investment lessons from the past.  

Idiosyncratic portfolios and an unconventional approach are two of the findings in the first detailed analysis of John Maynard Keynes' investment philosophy, strategies and trading records by Dr David Chambers and Professor Elroy Dimson. "The popular consensus to have grown up around Keynes is that he was a fantastic investor. Whilst we have not exploded that story, we reveal it is a more nuanced story than this popular view suggests."

David Stevenson, the FT's Adventurous Investor, asks professors Paul Marsh and Elroy Dimson about the risk/reward trade off for shareholders and Rob Arnott explains why "buy and hold" doesn't work if the price is wrong. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Elroy Dimson, BGI Professor of Investment Management, provides an insight into some of The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2009

Professor Elroy Dimson, BGI Professor of Investment Management, comments that high economic growth does not guarantee attractive stock investments

Stephen Schaefer, Professor of Finance, explains that the narrow focus of the regulatory system on banks is partially responsible for the financial crisis

Professor Elroy Dimson provides a historical perspective on the financial crisis at an Investment Management Club roundtable briefing on the financial crisis

Elroy Dimson, BGI Professor of Investment Management, talks about philanthropic and charitable investors, and the unique challenges they face in the current economic climate.