Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

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There is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing. Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and debt-to-gdp. For professional investors only. No advice here. No mention of funds or products. Personal thoughts, not that of any employer.

Jim


    • Jul 9, 2024 LATEST EPISODE
    • weekdays NEW EPISODES
    • 10m AVG DURATION
    • 343 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

    The LAST Ever UJWOB

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2024 17:24


    Love from Jim x

    The End Of Season 13 Of UJWOB

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2024 11:05


    A look at Biden's awful first Presidential debate with Trump, and his 20% fall in betting markets overnight.

    Household Debt v Government Debt - It's Different

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2024 9:43


    And Australia may be out of the cricket (just enjoying typing that) but its inflation numbers sent bond markets lower yesterday.

    ‘Finely Balanced' - No BoE Cut, But It's On The Way.

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 21, 2024 9:57


    And a look at Noah Smith's views on ‘elite overproduction'.

    UK Inflation Back To Target. And A Look At The Deutsche Bank Annual Default Study.

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2024 11:02


    The ‘boiling frog' impact of higher rates on credit is starting to be felt, but no big default rise until 2025.

    European Credit Spreads Widen On France Fears

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2024 9:00


    And China leaves rates on hold, despite weak house price news.

    Zero Inflation in May, Bond Rally Underway

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2024 11:23


    But French assets are really struggling, and credit is starting to weaken.

    French Bond Markets Wobble. And No Bank of England Reserves Interest Grab From Labour.

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2024 12:58


    Also: a smorgasbord of other bond market ephemera.

    What A Week That Was! Elections Hit EM Assets, ECB's ‘Unhappy' Cut, And Bumper US Jobs.

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2024 11:21


    US rate cut now not fully priced until December.

    EU Bonds Going Into Global Indices

    Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2024 10:27


    Could mean less demand for traditional EZ sovereign debt, especially as France risks a downgrade from S&P.

    Who's Best For The Economy - Labour or Conservatives?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2024 11:27


    Also: credit spreads are tight and stable. It was quiet - too quiet…. And CMBS takes its first big hit since the GFC.

    Bank Of England To Skip A June Rate Cut

    Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2024 10:26


    And it's not just because of July's General Election - service sector inflation is too strong.

    Doctor Copper Makes A Record High

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2024 9:02


    Does that mean global growth is reaccelerating?

    Equity Yields Are Way Below Credit Yields. Does That Make Sense?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2024 12:11


    And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.

    US Economic Surprises Rolling Over?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 13, 2024 9:07


    Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.

    Greenspan, ‘Atlas Shrugged', & 2001 A Space Odyssey

    Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2024 10:59


    Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.

    US Employment Weakens, Bonds Rally

    Play Episode Listen Later May 3, 2024 8:59


    2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.

    Why Economics Needs To Be Sexier

    Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2024 10:52


    And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.

    Gold vs Real Yields

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2024 11:20


    Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.

    US Growth Slows Sharply in Q1, But Bonds Don't Like PCE Inflation. 5% 2 Year Treasury Yields.

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 26, 2024 10:49


    And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.

    The Tortured Bond Investors Department

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 22, 2024 10:21


    Ben Bernanke v the Bank of England.

    UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 19, 2024 11:32


    And: Skyscraper - I Love You.

    India

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2024 16:11


    And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.

    Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 25, 2024 9:10


    Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS'.

    Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan.

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 22, 2024 12:18


    And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).

    Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations.

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2024 8:19


    Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.

    The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 18, 2024 11:47


    The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot' at this week's FOMC.

    Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile?

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 14, 2024 10:07


    And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!

    The ‘Right Tail Risk' Is Fading

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2024 10:59


    The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market's view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.

    No Rabbits Left

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2024 12:25


    What does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation' get measured in the CPI?

    No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 29, 2024 11:14


    And a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.

    Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful' Chance Of A Fed Hike

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2024 8:56


    And the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?

    Do NVIDIA's Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2024 9:18


    The AI boom could raise the world's cost of capital.

    Fiscal Rules: Do Bond Investors Care?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2024 18:06


    And some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!

    ‘Rishession' For the UK

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 19, 2024 10:26


    And the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.

    Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 9, 2024 9:20


    And more motorway related urban myths.

    Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2024 7:33


    And US employment is still on

    Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 28, 2024 15:05


    What's the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground's Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind? Don't say Frank Sinatra.

    How Italy

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2024 12:05


    Also: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.

    Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2024 10:05


    Growth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.

    Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back!

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2024 9:51


    Lowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.

    Credit Starts 2024 on the Back Foot

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2024 12:22


    Huge supply wave in January.

    Season 12 of Uncle Jim's World of Bonds

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2024 12:37


    Election year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.

    2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim's World of Bonds Special

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2023 38:59


    Man I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can't face the rest.

    The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim's World of Bonds

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2023 9:24


    In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law's Spotify Unwrapped.

    Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2023 10:35


    And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.

    Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed's Waller Triggers a Bond Rally

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2023 11:55


    Also Noah Smith on productivity

    The UK's Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again?

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 25, 2023 13:36


    Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don't worry though - it wasn't as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off.

    The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks.

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 19, 2023 11:33


    US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.

    US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates.

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2023 10:13


    We also have Moody's looking at Italy's credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.

    Kilkenomics: Oh My God - It's Kilkenny!

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2023 9:32


    Also today - why you shouldn't necessarily believe in really old people.

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