Podcast appearances and mentions of Noah Smith

Sam Harris speaks with economist and Substack writer Noah Smith about the U.S. national debt, wealth inequality, and the economic consequences of AI. They discuss the mechanics of debt and inflation, the case for fiscal austerity, why the U.S. squandered low interest rates, modern monetary theory, how AI may restructure labor and ownership, the anti-billionaire politics of the American left, the degrowth movement and its failures, demographic decline and fertility trends, the role of smartphones in eroding democratic culture, and other topics. If the Making Sense podcast logo in your player is BLACK, you can SUBSCRIBE to gain access to all full-length episodes at samharris.org/subscribe.  

“AI represents successful capitalism. What we have alongside that is unsuccessful government. Government has no plan — left or right.” — Keith Teare It's the 82nd anniversary of D-Day. On June 6, 1944, there was an unambiguous end game — the defeat of Nazi Germany. But today, end games are more controversial, especially in terms of harnessing the AI revolution to benefit everyone. For Keith Teare, publisher of That Was the Week, the AI end game requires an “Institute of the Future.” Everyone from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to Elon Musk and Sam Altman should hammer out a plan to harness AI for the benefit of society. Keith offers the internet governance organisation ICANN as a model for this institute. It will shape the future for all of our benefit, he promises. So a D-Day for AI? I'm sceptical of this type of Brave New World-style technocracy. Firstly, Sanders, Warren, Musk and Altman agree on very little. And Musk and Altman hate each other. I'm also dubious that AI will or can benefit everyone. As Keith notes, some professions — teachers, for example — will be decimated by AI. Where I agree with Keith, however, is that we need a new politics for this new age. Political parties, rather than institutes, of the future. Innovation rather than ICANN. Five Takeaways •       The Anthropic IPO Slip — and Why SpaceX Now Looks Small: Anthropic accidentally filed for its IPO this week — what the New York Times described as a slip. The terms of SpaceX's unconventional $75 billion IPO were also revealed. Keith's observation: SpaceX now looks small by comparison. He tried to buy SpaceX shares this week through his brokerage and expects to get none — the demand will be way bigger than the supply, and the price will go up from the offering. San Francisco real estate is already feeling the Cerebras effect: 800 employees are now millionaires. The three big IPOs — Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX — will compound that on a much larger scale. •       Successful Capitalism, Unsuccessful Government: Keith's framework for the week: AI is capitalism working. Resources are directed to money-making opportunities via the profit motive, which coincides with innovation and, at least in the short term, creates lots of jobs. That is successful capitalism. Alongside it: unsuccessful government. The Trump administration went from hands-off to requiring all AI models to be submitted for a 30-day assessment before launch — in the same week. No plan. No endgame. Everyone has an opinion. Nobody states what outcome they want. •       Keith's PhD: Why Capitalism Is Never Static: Andrew challenges Keith's authority to pronounce on these matters. Keith reveals: he has a PhD from the University of Kent in Canterbury — on why capitalism is never static, and why new entrants always eclipse what went before. Andrew: that was the 1970s, Keith. Does a fifty-year-old PhD give you authority? Keith: it's a useless criticism. You could say that to anyone about anything. The exchange is revealing: the argument is not about credentials but about frameworks. And Keith's framework — capitalism as dynamic, government as static — has at least the virtue of consistency. •       Credit to Bernie and Warren: At Least They're Having the Conversation: Andrew expects Keith to trash Bernie Sanders (50% government ownership of AI companies) and Elizabeth Warren (high taxation of AI profits). Keith surprises him: at least they're having the conversation. His criticism is not that they're wrong to want wealth distribution but that their framing — tax, centralise, spend — is unattractive to most people and captured by the interests of the old economy: teachers' unions, trade unions, legacy coalitions that can't think freely about a future without teachers as they currently exist. •       An ICANN for AI: Keith's One Concrete Prescription: Andrew pushes Keith for one concrete thing politicians should do this year. Keith's answer: create an Institute for the Future. Bring Musk, Altman, Amodei, Sanders, Warren, and everyone else to the table with a clear mandate — define the future you want, agree actual outcomes, seek governmental authority to implement them. His model: ICANN, the global internet governance body, which disagrees constantly and still makes decisions. Andrew's verdict: Keith wants to create an ICANN for society. Interesting idea. History's jury is out. About the Guest Keith Teare is a British-American entrepreneur, investor, and publisher of the That Was the Week newsletter. He is a co-founder of TechCrunch and Andrew's regular TWTW co-host. He holds a PhD from the University of Kent. References: •       That Was the Week by Keith Teare. •       Noah Smith, “We Need Liberal Nationalism to Come Back” — referenced in the conversation. •       The Economist, “American Capitalism Has Taken an Apocalyptic Turn” — referenced in the conversation. •       Ben Thompson on Google becoming a capital company; John Battelle on Google reinventing itself from search to data infrastructure — both referenced. •       ICANN — the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, Keith's model for AI governance. About Keen On America Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States — hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,900 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting. WebsiteSubstackYouTubeApple PodcastsSpotify Chapters: (00:31) - Introduction: D-Day, June 6, and the Anthropic IPO slip (02:26) - What is the endgame? AI is no longer just a tech story (03:46) - Successful capitalism, unsuccessful government (04:49) - Atomisation and the absence of proper conversation (05:33) - Andrew challenges Keith's authority (06:42) - Keith's PhD: capitalism is never static (07:13) - Bernie Sanders: 50% ownership of AI companies (07:30) - At least they're having the conversation (07:55) - The old economy framing: tax, centralise, spend (08:25) - What gives Keith the authority? (09:00) - Jack Clark and the call to slow down (10:00) - The Trump administration at war with itself (15:00) - Andrew Yang and universal capital distribution (20:00) - ...

Cade Ryan hosts as Jordan Cummings, Daniel Beaudin and Noah Smith break down the Week 1 action of the new season in Massachusetts! Support our Sponsor - 110 Grill https://www.instagram.com/110_grill/ The Official Restaurant of the Legacy Leagues

Welcome to Episode 091 of the Beyond the Diagnosis Podcast. In this episode of Beyond the Diagnosis, Kathy sits down with hematologist Dr. Richard Godby from Mayo Clinic to explore the rapidly evolving role of artificial intelligence in rare disease and healthcare. Together, they unpack how AI is already helping patients and physicians navigate complex medical information, shorten diagnostic journeys, improve advocacy, and potentially accelerate research and treatment development. Dr. Godby also shares practical guidance on how patients and caregivers can begin using AI thoughtfully and responsibly while understanding its limitations, risks, and ethical considerations. Whether you're curious, skeptical, or already experimenting with AI yourself, this conversation offers a fascinating and hopeful look at how technology may reshape the future of rare disease care. Let us know what you think! Leave us a review, drop us a comment or share an idea for a future podcast with us at podcast@histio.org.   Take a screenshot and tag us @histiocytosis_association on Instagram. We'd love to hear your feedback!  Be sure to subscribe so you can be notified the moment a new episode of Beyond the Diagnosis is released.   Resources mentioned in the podcast: Watch Dr. Godby's presentation on AI for wAIHA Warriors hereFollow the Histiocytosis Association on social media: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/histio Twitter: @histiocytosis Instagram: histiocytosis_association YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Histiocytosis  Music: “Heroes” by Noah Smith  

The future of war has been evolving before our eyes in Ukraine, yet the west still plans to fight the last war. In this special episode, guest host Noah Smith (@noahpinion) and Brandon Anderson sit down with Yaroslav Azhnyuk (@YaroslavAzhnyuk), a serial tech founder who went from building PetCube to founding The Fourth Law, one of the world's most advanced AI-guided drone companies. Over two hours we cover the technology, tactics, and geopolitics of drone warfare, and why the modern battlefield has already left the West behind:* Yaroslav's personal history and the Ukraine war [00:01:04 – 00:14:01]* The modern drone tech stack: why FPV drones are the new god of war, the future of the rifleman, fiber optic vs. AI, five levels of autonomy, and the eight dimensions of the autonomous battlefield [00:14:01 – 01:05:13]* The geopolitics and economics of drones: China's manufacturing advantage, the drone race, Western defense readiness, countermeasures, and why the gap is widening [01:05:13 – 01:58:57]For those looking for Noah Smith's commentary, it really gets going around the 00:51:31 mark.Yaroslav Azhnyuk / The Fourth Law:* X: https://x.com/YaroslavAzhnyuk* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yaroslavazhnyuk/* The Fourth Law: https://thefourthlaw.aiNoah Smith:* Substack: Noah Smith * X: https://x.com/noahpinionTimestamps00:00:00 Cold Open: China's 4 Billion Drones and the Cameras-to-Explosives Pipeline00:01:04 Introduction: Brandon, Noah Smith, and Yaroslav Azhnyuk00:05:41 From Tech Entrepreneur to Defense: PetCube, Brave One, and the D3 Fund00:10:42 The Ethics of Building Weapons: Dual-Use Technology and the Wolf at the Door00:14:01 The Tech Stack: Cameras, Autonomy Modules, Interceptors, and a Semiconductor Fab00:18:47 Fiber Optic vs. AI: The Radio Horizon Problem and $32/km Cable00:25:32 FPV Drones: The New God of War — 70–80% of Frontline Casualties00:28:28 The Five Levels of Drone Autonomy: From Terminal Guidance to Full Autonomy00:41:37 The Eight Dimensions of the Autonomous Battlefield00:45:32 AI Safety and the Morality of Autonomous Weapons00:51:31 The End of the Rifleman? Noah's 2013 Prediction vs. Battlefield Reality01:05:13 China's Manufacturing Advantage and Western Vulnerabilities01:24:21 Policy Advice for Western Defense: Defense Valley and the Widening Gap01:32:54 The Drone Race: Who's Ahead, Category by Category01:41:57 Countermeasures: Shotguns, Jammers, Lasers, and Fishnets01:58:19 The Wedding and Final Takeaway: Be Prepared for WarTranscriptCold Open: China, FPV Drones, and the New Warning SignYaroslav [00:00:00]: Think about this. Last year, Ukraine produced 4 million FPV drones. Ukraine is not the most industrious nation in the world. China can produce 4 billion of these FPV drones.Noah [00:00:10]: Would you say that right now China is now the supreme conventional military power on Earth, given its ability to manufacture and deploy drones in the quantity and quality that you just described?Yaroslav [00:00:20]: I don't think we have all the information to claim that but we cannot count it out, and that alone should be a big warning sign. As I say, at some point in my life I went from making cameras that fling treats to pets to cameras that fling explosives to the occupiers. So that's the short story. And when you think about what your nation, what your patriots are going through, you realize that's the only morally right thing to do is to fight back, and it is immoral not to fight back, and then the choice becomes very clear.Introduction: Yaroslav Azhnyuk, Petcube, and the Last Flight into KyivBrandon [00:01:04]: Welcome to Latent Space. I'm Brandon. I normally do science podcasts, but today we're going to do something a little bit different. I'm joined by Noah Smith of Noahpinion on Substack and Twitter. And he has lots of interesting things to say about drones. And as a guest, we have Yaroslav Azhnyuk, founder of The Fourth Law and several other, drone-related startups. To get started, it is February 23rd, 2022. You are running a pet startup. You're connecting pets with their owners. Let's go in just a little bit of background. How did you get started in tech, and what were you working on before the Ukrainian war started?Yaroslav [00:01:50]: Good to be here. Thank you. On February 23rd, late in the evening, 11:00 PM Kyiv time, my wife and I landed in Kyiv. Actually, then she was a fiance. We came from Lviv, where we were looking at a church, where our wedding should have taken place. And we got into this cab ride from the airport to our home, and the driver was like, “You crazy. Like, everyone's leaving Kyiv. Why do you come?” We're like, “What? Nothing's going to happen. Dude, chill.” And then obviously, eight minutes later, or eight hours later, the bombs fell in the city. It was quite surreal. We probably landed on the last flight that landed in Kyiv, or one of those last flights. My background, I'm a tech guy. Studied applied mathematics in Kyiv Polytechnics, born and raised in Kyiv. My parents are old PhDs from academia, and grandparents too. Like, everything, from linguistics to nuclear physics. And I'm an entrepreneur, so I've built a bunch of companies. Petcube is the one you were referencing. So I lived in San Francisco 2014 to 2020, building Petcube, which is one of the leading, pet device companies in the world, selling lots of pet cameras. And then, yeah, as I say, at some point in my life I went from making cameras that fling treats to pets to cameras that fling explosives to the occupiers. So that's the short story.February 24th: Leaving Kyiv as the Invasion BeginsNoah [00:03:28]: February 24th, I guess a few hours after you, go to check out your wedding chapel, what do you do?Yaroslav [00:03:37]: We had a plan for this situation. So my parents and family live in Kyiv, and we're like, “Okay, this has actually started. The worst has, come true.” And so we basically packed our belongings and got in the car and spent 17 hours driving west. And that was pretty sure most people in our audience watched at least one apocalyptic movie in their life, so that was exactly like that. Like, felt exactly like that. Missiles are falling. Like, there was smoke in Kyiv. Like, my dad and I went, like, to central part of the cities. It's probably, likeYaroslav [00:04:20]: 800 meters from presidential office, to pick some stuff up at his workplace. Because he's, like, the head of an academic institution, so he had to get some of the things with him. And super surreal. Like, the streets are empty. Like, the gas stations are out of gas. Like, we found some gas station. We didn't have, like, spare canisters with us, so we're like, We figured out, like, the car was diesel, so like, we figured out, if it's diesel, you can actually store it in plastic, canisters, and we bought some window wash for the cars. We poured it out of the canisters, and we poured the diesel into that. Yeah, so it was like that. And then, like, helping friends get out, like my friend and his dog. Like, we found Like, my brother was also, like, riding in a separate car. We found a place for my friend who didn't have a car. It was like, yeah, it was like, totally surreal. And we didn't know of course, and you didn't know this will last for so long. You didn't know whether Ukraine will be able to defend Kyiv. And it was like, yeah, very little information and very little insight into future.From Pet Cameras to Defense Tech: Building for Ukraine and the Free WorldNoah [00:05:42]: What are your thoughts with regards to how do you, defend, Ukraine? So you eventually start building drones Like, what is the process to get from there from where you were building, devices that connect owners with pets to building drones, and what other things did you do to help the war effort in the process?Yaroslav [00:06:07]: It's definitely non-trivial, right? Like, I didn't go, to I didn't get any, like, military education when I was a student. Like, normally, in Ukraine, you would, you would go to like, this military school even if you're getting higher education in any other, sphere. I decided to skip that which is like, an unusual way to go. And I never thought that I will be somehow engaged in a war effort. Like, what is war? Of course, wars are over. It's the end of history. So one thing you got to understand about, like, many Ukrainians and like, I guess, it's also true about most of the people I met here in the US, that your who you are in terms of your nationality is a big part of your identity. So when that gets under attack, it's something deeper than just the country you live in gets under attack, right? And I Day one, I figured I'm going to I'm going to fight back with everything I can, right? But I didn't think on day one that I'm actually going to do, weapons. And a bunch of things. We were reaching out to a number of American, congresspeople and senators, and basically advocating for support of Ukraine, for voting for lend lease, which has happened in May 2022, but didn't actually work as expected. We helped start, Brave One, which is now a very important defense innovation cluster, sort of like a DIU here in the US. We helped start, a fund called D3. It's like, it was started or co-started by Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google. So a bunch of these odd things, but then eventually I was like, “Okay,”by 2023 it was obvious this thing, A is going to last a lot more time, and B, that the whole world is shifting and that there's going to be a new arms race, that the warfare is redefined by drones as platforms. And for the first time in history, you have a platform that is software defined, that can increase your battlefield capabilities, in a in a step change just overnight. So it's like if you were able to push a software update and get all of your Roman legionnaires a new helmet? That has never been possible before. It's the first time in the history of war this is possible. So all of that and many other things like, supply chain fragilization, and the impact that AI is going to have on all of this all these things have become evident to me in 2023, and it's like, “Okay, I should do what I do best, or what I know how to do best, start a tech company, and sort of leverage the global techno capitalist machine, to provide, defensibility to Ukraine and the free world.” So that's literally the mission of the company, increase defensibility of Ukraine and the free world. And then there was some sort of soul-searching and like, asking yourself. It's like, “Okay, am I Actually, I know nothing about weapons. Am I actually, like, ready to make, things that other people use to kill other bad people?”Yaroslav [00:09:36]: When you think about what your nation, what your Compatriots are going through And think about all the terror of places like Bucha, the occupied cities in the east and south, the abducted children, the raped women, all the economic damage that's being done, and the intention to destroy a whole nation, to genocide the people of Ukraine, you realize that's the only morally right thing to do is to fight back, and it is immoral not to fight back. And then the choice becomes very clear. And look, we're just passing the ammunition. We're not doing the actual job. The actual fighters and defenders and heroes are people in the armed forces. We're just support.The Moral Question: Weapons, Responsibility, and Fighting BackNoah [00:10:33]: I have so many questions. Actually, I know you seem to have a question. Do you want to ask anything?Yaroslav [00:10:38]: No, I'm just listening. Go ahead.Noah [00:10:40]: I do want to talk about, some of let's say, the moral issues, like you just said. You endYaroslav [00:10:50]: I think there are no issues there.Yaroslav [00:10:52]: What would an example of a moral question be in this case?Noah [00:10:55]: No, I mean Okay. As you just said, you are creating the tools, but others are using them.Noah [00:11:05]: I was maybe thinking of having this conversation later, but one of the questions is like, is it actually you are going to be building them for your homeland, which you are building it for your homeland, which is I think, very a strong morally defensible position, but this technology is not going to stay with you, right?Noah [00:11:26]: This you will probably be selling these to other people Yeah. So the future is really where the moral issues may come into playYaroslav [00:11:38]: The this question becomes, easier and more complete if we ask this not about a particular technology or particular weapon, if we think that this question actually applies to any kind of technology Right? So -Knife or fire. You can use knife to do surgery and save people's lives, or you can use it as a weapon to take people's lives.Noah [00:12:06]: Cut tomatoes, too.Yaroslav [00:12:08]: Cut tomatoes too.Noah [00:12:09]: Yes, knife.Yaroslav [00:12:09]: That's helpful.Noah [00:12:10]: In Japan, sword and knife, they, call the same word.Yaroslav [00:12:14]: It's like, it's with any technology. Large language models, right? Look at how powerful they are and yet they're available to anyone in North Korea or in Russia.Yaroslav [00:12:29]: That's one side of the argument. The other side is As a maker, what is your responsibility for how the tools you're creating, will be used? There's definitely some responsibility, right? Then How should the decision process look like? Should you, like, try to calculate all the possible scenarios before starting to work on something? Or do you create something that is needed now to save people's lives, and then think about, addressing the unwanted edge cases later? In ideal world where there's like, or okay, it's not ideal world. In a mythical world where there is some one governing party and it gets to decide everything, and there is no other country, that can, decide on their own, you could say, “Well, we need to calculate for all the consequences, and only then, maybe build this building, by replacing this park because, maybe we need this park in the city,”right? So that kind of situation. But when you're in a situation where you're in a forest, in front of a wolf, you first going to deal with the wolf that wants to eat you, and then you're going to go consult Greenpeace. So that's kind of situation that Ukraine is in.The Fourth Law, Odd Systems, and Ukraine's Drone StackNoah [00:13:59]: Enough. Because this is a tech podcast, I did want to spend some time talking about, sort of the tech in that you've developed and what you've been working on. So can you explain, I guess, first of all, like, the problem that you were trying to solve from a technical standpoint? And I think, and then maybe, like, go into some of the solutions and some of the design process that led you from designing, little laser-guided, guiding lasers with a with an iPhone versus Having drones.Yaroslav [00:14:34]: Like, it so happened, that my partners and I, we sort of So I started one company called The Fourth Law, and its goal was and is to Make, massively scalable on-drone autonomy. And then In parallel with that together with my, Petcube co-founders, partners, and friends, we started another company called Odd Systems Which, was focused on making thermal cameras. Cameras, thermal cameras are seeing thermal radiation and are used to see at night. And we're now sort of those companies are getting closer and closer together and we're probably going to merge them. And this group of companies is currently the leading, team in on-drone AI and thermal imaging on the Ukrainian battlefield, and Likely one of the leading, if not the leading in the world. So We have these, like, three sort of business units, which are cameras, drone autonomy, and drones. So the cameras and drone autonomy sell daytime and nighttime cameras and different types of drone autonomous modules to other drone manufacturers, over 200 drone manufacturers in Ukraine. And then the UAV, business unit sells the drones themselves to the armed forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian government. And there are different types of drones. Those are sort of front strike, as we call them, so those are sort of FPV strike drones and the bombers, and then interceptors. And there are different kinds of interceptors. We do Shahed interceptors and we do ISR interceptors. We don't do the deep strike-FPV Drones, Interceptors, and Battery-Powered WarfareNoah [00:16:32]: What's an ISR interceptor?Yaroslav [00:16:33]: ISR is stands for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and those are basically drones which are which, Russians are using to watch over positions and then communicate where, the targets are coming.Noah [00:16:48]: It's a reconnaissance.Yaroslav [00:16:48]: That's, the ISR is sort of a classical term for a for a reconnaissance drone.Noah [00:16:53]: Are all of these battery-powered drones that you just described? ‘Cause I know that the sort of deep strike drones still have, like Some sort ofYaroslav [00:17:01]: Internal combustion engine?Noah [00:17:02]: Internal combustion engine. Are all the things you're talking about battery-powered?Yaroslav [00:17:06]: What we're working on is all battery-powered, right? We don't do the deep strikes, right? And then in terms of autonomy-Noah [00:17:12]: You can catch a Shahed with a battery-powered thing. It's not Fast to catch.Yaroslav [00:17:17]: No, absolutely. Look, Shahed interceptor, like ours, it's called Zero, it goes up to 326 kilometers per hour.Noah [00:17:26]: For reference, how fast is a Shahed?Yaroslav [00:17:28]: Eight, like, in internal phase it could be 280, but in cruise phase it's, like, 220-ish.Yaroslav [00:17:36]: Yeah. And sorry, I'm not like you can convert that into miles if you're interested.Noah [00:17:41]: No, that's fine.Noah [00:17:41]: Multiply by two thirds or point six or something.Yaroslav [00:17:44]: That's easy. Yeah, I was saying that for autonomy modules, right, we, -We make systems, autonomous systems for frontline, for interceptors and some for deep strikes as well, and then different levels of autonomy. So from terminal guidance, which is like lasts 500 meters, give or take, to autonomous bombing, to autonomous target detection, to autonomous navigation and all of that across day and night, different terrains, different time of the year, different platforms like quadcopters and fixed wing, and maybe some other platforms. So it's quite a wide variety of products. We also have like our own simulation. We have our own training school for the war fighters. And we're about to start construction of two, semiconductor plants to make, sensors for thermal cameras. So that's super exciting for me as a computer science guy is Doing semiconductors. Super cool.Noah [00:18:49]: Like in terms of kind of core drone technologies, you basically are one is an FPV replacement without fiber optics, and the other isYaroslav [00:18:59]: YouNoah [00:18:59]: Signal tracking with interceptorsYaroslav [00:19:00]: With or without fiber optics. Fiber optics Is just like, sort of a communication module.Yaroslav [00:19:05]: You can, you can use classical analog, video link and radio link. Those would be two separate radios. You can do digital, or you can do fiber optic, and then fiber optic Has its own advantages but also adds weight and decreases, the distance and decreases, how fast you can, sort of turn and With a drone. Yeah.Noah [00:19:33]: Do you need AI for fiber optic drones?Yaroslav [00:19:36]: Like you can use AI for fiber optic drones. AI replaces a human, right? Fiber optic is making your communication link more resilient. So those are slightly different goals. Like if you want, you can have, AI controlling hundreds of fiber optic drones instead of having 100 operators for each.Fiber Optics, Radio Horizons, and Terminal GuidanceNoah [00:20:03]: I guess I thought that the key reason that people moved to fiber optic drones was for like electronic, countermeasures. Or I guess to counter those.Yaroslav [00:20:13]: I think that's a correct assessment from sort of a public awareness standpoint. In practice it's somewhat more difficult Because besides electronic countermeasures, you have these issues of a radio horizon For FPV drones, which means that asYaroslav [00:20:36]: I believe Earth is round Some people disagree. But basically if you fly a drone and you have a land station over here and a drone flying over hereYaroslav [00:20:49]: If your drone is flying high, you have good direct radio visibility. If your drone goes low, and usually, Russian infantry and vehicles, they're on the ground and you want to hit them, you need to go low. Lower you go, maybe you'll get behind a hill or behind a forest, and if you're far enough, you'll just get behind the curvature of the earth. You get into what's called a radio shadow. And then That is a real bummer because for the last, be it 60 or 20 meters, you won't be able to see anything and it will be very difficult to hit the target. So to counter that what-- And then the distances that these FPV drones, act on they're, they can be quite large. So for example, here in the US there was this drone dominance program competition, and in drone dominance the furthest distance was about 10 kilometers.Noah [00:21:44]: What was drone dominance? What was that competition?Yaroslav [00:21:47]: Drone, the drone dominance is a is a program started, by the US government, to accelerate the development of drone technology here in the US.Noah [00:21:57]: Got it. And the longest range thing they were using was 10 kilometers.Yaroslav [00:22:00]: Was 10 kilometers, right. In Ukraine, like if your drone doesn't fly at least 20, 25, it just, no one's interested in it, and the usual hits are happening. It was like, okay, many hits are happening between 30 and 40 kilometers, and that's what expected from a regular 10-inch, FPV drone. So at that distance, even at altitudes of like 60 to 100 meters, you might start losing, the link. So some of the earlier AI technology that was fielded in FPV drone was this terminal guidance technology. That was the first product that we ever, launched that helped you as an operator, once you see the target from two, three, 500 meters, you lock onto the target and then, it just, drives the drone towards the target no matter what, even after you lost the visual connection. So optic fiber solves that. However, if you want to go like 20 kilometers with optic fiber, that will add an extra three kilos, of useful weight to your drone. SoNoah [00:23:12]: ‘Cause the cable that you have to unspool as you go weighs.Noah [00:23:15]: It is heavy.Yaroslav [00:23:15]: At first, like the spool is about 800 grams, so a bit less than a kilo, and then, and then think about 10, 10 kilometer optic fiber is another kilo, something like that. That takes away from your useful mass and then now you have like, you need a 15-inch drone and it can only carry maybe one or two kilos of explosives if you want to go, 20 kilometers. If you want to go to 30 or 40, like 30 is probably max. 40 is like very problem problematic on optic fiber. And then the problem with optic fiber is it's actually getting super expensive. So and why? Because of all the data centers for AI. That's literally the same optic fiber-Noah [00:24:01]: We're running out of centersYaroslav [00:24:02]: That's being used there.Yaroslav [00:24:02]: Like when Ukrainians and Russians come to Chinese factories to buy the optic fiber, they're like, “We're out. We sold it out to the Americans.”? That's the craziest thing. So optic fiber went up in price from like, $4 per, kilometer to like, $32 per kilometer in a few months in the beginning of this year. And I'veBrandon [00:24:26]: Claude Code is stopping the Russian drone effort here.Yaroslav [00:24:30]: Ukrainian as well. Yeah.Brandon [00:24:31]: Ukrainian. But I read somewhere that the Russians had grown more dependent on fiber optic drones relative to the Ukrainians, and that's one reason why the Ukrainians have sort of regained the initiative in drones recently.Brandon [00:24:42]: How accurate's that?Yaroslav [00:24:43]: The Russians were the first ones to scale that. I think by as of now, Ukraine has caught up. I think, like, as of maybe three months ago, Ukraine is mostly caught up on fiber optic. Yeah.Brandon [00:24:57]: What percent of damage would you say is in terms of FPV drone damage would you say is now fiber optic versus, like autonomous?FPVs as the New God of War: Tanks, Artillery, and Cost per KillYaroslav [00:25:07]: For our, for our audience, I actually, I cannot answer that question. Like, it's like I know the answer, but I would not disclose that. But for our audience, I think another interesting fact is out of all the casualties on the front line Between 70 and 80% are done by FPV drones.Brandon [00:25:30]: FPV drones are the new weapon of universal weapon of warfare.Yaroslav [00:25:34]: It'sBrandon [00:25:35]: Land warfare, anywayYaroslav [00:25:35]: They used to say that artillery is a god of war because artillery used to cause, like 80% of casualties, and now On that ranking-Brandon [00:25:46]: FPVYaroslav [00:25:47]: FPV drones rule.Brandon [00:25:48]: FPV drones are the god of war.Yaroslav [00:25:51]: Sort of. Dethroned artillery. But it's not to say that artillery is not useful, is not needed. Like, all of these systems are needed. Maybe except cavalry, although Russians still use it. I know, have you seen the videos of Russians using mules and horses?Brandon [00:26:09]: What is the usefulness-Yaroslav [00:26:10]: It'Brandon [00:26:10]: Of a tank in the in the modern-Yaroslav [00:26:11]: That's where we need Greenpeace to say a word, but they're silent. Yeah.Brandon [00:26:15]: What's the use of a tank on the modern battlefield?Yaroslav [00:26:21]: It's diminishing.Brandon [00:26:22]: Diminishing.Yaroslav [00:26:22]: However, I think there might be technologies which will, revive the tank. Look, tank still provides you armor, and armor is important. Like, you still need to armor and firepower, right? Like, you can be an armor personal carrier that provides you, armor. The challenge that currently exists is armor is not very well protected against incoming drones. However, there are ways to do to protect it. We were previously talking about this before the podcast. The CEO of Rheinmetall, recently sort of ridiculed, Ukrainian drone industry, saying that like, there is nothing interesting there, no real innovation, no to stand Compared to like, Rheinmetall or Boeing, and it's all made by housewives. There was like, obviously a ton of memes about this people ridiculing the CEO of Rheinmetall. And one of the best quotes, I heard on this topic is from my friend, Alexey Babenko, who's, the head of and founder of VIARI Drone, which is one of the largest manufacturers of FPV drones. They're our partner. They're using our autonomy. So he said that the drones we manufacture in one day will be more than enough to destroy all the tanks Rheinmetall manufactures in a year.Yaroslav [00:27:52]: Then, yeah, cost-wise, of course, a drone is like, $500 and a Rheinmetall tank is what, probably 5 million-ish or maybe more.Brandon [00:28:00]: Don't mess with those housewives.Yaroslav [00:28:03]: Drone wives.Brandon [00:28:04]: Drone wives.Yaroslav [00:28:06]: That's it.Noah [00:28:06]: There's a classic saying that everyone always fights the last war.Noah [00:28:12]: Yet do How did So from your standpoint, how did we get to the point where tanks became irrelevant in at least for now In a matter of just a few years?Yaroslav [00:28:24]: Look, I think it's the same way, how do we get to the point that calculators become irrelevant?Yaroslav [00:28:31]: Now we have iPhones. Like, why would you need a calculator? Technology progresses and its influence grows non-linearly. It's all exponential. So I can tell you that full autonomy, when you put it on a drone Look, so if you, if you think about a tank and a like, it's not a direct comparison, but even, like, a drone and a artillery shell or like, sort of cost per kill, an artillery shell for 155 caliber, which is a standard NATO caliber Currently market price is about $4,000 per piece. So compare that to say, $400 per drone. That's 10 times more expensive. Account for the amortization of the artillery gun and for how vulnerable it is and what is the sort of tactical, capabilities it gives you as compared to a drone. You'll figure out that an FPV drone is maybe three orders of magnitude, more versatile, more useful, more capable than artillery and many of than a classic artillery. Many of Because there are different types of artillery. Not just, like, one 155. You have mortars, you have all that. But give or take, roughly three orders of magnitude maybe. Again, it doesn't have that firepower. It's not one-to-one comparison still.Yaroslav [00:29:53]: Now, take that FPV drone. When you put full autonomy on that FPV drone, which can be not very expensive, like systems that we're, producing are like, in hundreds of dollars of pure bombFull Autonomy: From Human Pilots to Smartphone-Directed Drone MissionsNoah [00:30:06]: Just interrupt. You said full autonomy Just a second ago you were saying that the autonomy here is guidance, right? It's not decision-making.Yaroslav [00:30:14]: No, I was I was saying that's the f-First and sort of easiest pieces of autonomy that was fielded by us. But if you, if you add full autonomy to a droneBrandon [00:30:24]: He, I think he's asking what does it can you, for the listeners, can you explain What the term full autonomy means?Yaroslav [00:30:29]: Basically, I think a good way to think about an FPV drone is like an iPhone of warfare. It's, like, very inexpensive, very mass producible, very versatile. You don't need a bunch of other things when you have a iPhone in your pocket. You don't have, need an MP3 player, you don't need a calculator, don't need other things. All right? So FPV drone is an iPhone. Or like, okay, Apple please don't sue me, is a smartphone. And then, when you add autonomy to it sort of becomes like Uber or ride sharing. Okay? So what it means is instead of actually being a trained pilot who has this complex remote controller device which requires a couple months of training to actually pilot the drone, and then having to pilot it for 30 minutes, flying towards the target, et cetera, et cetera, now you basically, you have your smartphone, you have a drone, you pick your smartphone, you say, “We are here. The bad guys are here. Go and get them.” And the drone goes up, flies in a given direction, localizes itself on the map, finds the dedicated area where they, the bad guys are supposed to be sees the bad guys, bombs them, return, like, watches, so does a damage assessment, returns back, sits down, and then you can pick it up and watch the video if you didn't have the radio link, right?Noah [00:31:59]: That's a bomber drone.Yaroslav [00:32:00]: That's full autonomy for a bomber drone, right?Noah [00:32:03]: You're saying that no human decision is made in this entire process?Brandon [00:32:06]: That's not, that's not what he's saying.Yaroslav [00:32:07]: A human decision was made at the beginning of the process-Noah [00:32:09]: I get it. I get itYaroslav [00:32:09]: The same way as you would fire an artillery.Yaroslav [00:32:12]: When you fire an artillery, you don't stop at like, 500 meters away from a target and ask it whether, you want to strike or not. That's exactly, a human decision is always made at some point. So when you do that's full autonomy, and such full autonomy is happening as we speak. And such full autonomy increases the capabilities of an FPV drone, which is already, like, three orders more powerful than an artillery shell. Full autonomy increases its capabilities by four orders of magnitude because now you can have 100 times as many people who can use it, because you don't need to train those people, and this is important. You can have 10 times, mission success rate, and you can have 10 times utility per drone because now instead of being one-way kamikaze, it's, it can be a bomber.Brandon [00:33:05]: Now wait, let's, you said 10 times mission success rate, which means that fully autonomous bomber drones succeed in their missions 10 times more often than human piloted bomber drones do. That's an important thing to know.Noah [00:33:17]: Maybe, to push back onBrandon [00:33:19]: They're super, they're superhuman. They're, they' 10X superhuman.Yaroslav [00:33:22]: They're not vulnerable to electronic warfare. They don't care about the radio horizon. They don't lose track during navigation. They are not susceptible to human error when, an artillery shell or other drone blows up besides you and you're like, “Hell no,”like, “I'm getting out of here.” Right? That doesn't happen to an autonomous drone. Like, all of those things. Like, we have, like, one of the brigades that's using our drones with just first level autonomy They literally said that their success rates-Brandon [00:33:53]: What's first level autonomy?Yaroslav [00:33:54]: First level autonomy is just the terminal guidance.Yaroslav [00:33:57]: By the way, we have video of that. We can watch that.Brandon [00:33:59]: Terminal guidance means a human gets it nearby and then the AI takes over.Yaroslav [00:34:03]: The human flies it all the way, like 30 kilometers towards the target, and obviously the target was probably given to that human by someone who's flying some ISR drone, some reconnaissance drone, right? So all the way to the target, and once you see the target from a distance of 500 meters, you do target lock, and from there drone flies autonomous. So just that feature alone, it has increased the guy's, his call sign is Grom, so it has increased his, mission success rate, like precision of mission, yeah, mission success rate from 20% to 71%, and it also increased his kill zone from three kilometers to 10 kilometers, which means there's certain area around the front line which is designated kill zone. Whenever enemy goes into that area, it's almost guaranteed to be to be destroyed by a drone. And then obviously the drones are not launched from like, the zero line. They're usually launched from like, minus 10 kilometer-Mission Success, Failure Modes, and the Five Levels of AutonomyBrandon [00:35:03]: What is a zero line?Yaroslav [00:35:05]: Zero line is sort of an imaginary line of control, of two conflicting forces.Brandon [00:35:14]: It's important to explain these things to a lot of the listeners who areYaroslav [00:35:17]: Thank you for askingBrandon [00:35:18]: Familiar with warfare.Noah [00:35:20]: Myself.Noah [00:35:20]: I'm one of those listeners.Brandon [00:35:20]: You said that level one autonomy, in other words just terminal guidance, just, like, human gets it to the finish line and then it goes over the finish line, increases mission success from 20 something percent to 71%, or something like that.Yaroslav [00:35:33]: Increases the kill zoneBrandon [00:35:34]: Increases the kill zoneYaroslav [00:35:34]: Three kilometers to 10 kilometers.Brandon [00:35:36]: Got it.Yaroslav [00:35:36]: On both parameters-Brandon [00:35:37]: What is full autonomy, dude? AndNoah [00:35:38]: Actually on real quick, can we define mission success and like, maybe in a way, what are the failure modes of missions?Brandon [00:35:44]: I have a guess what mission success is.Noah [00:35:46]: But I couldBrandon [00:35:47]: Get ‘em.Yaroslav [00:35:49]: No, but that's a very good question, in fact, because, even if you fly into the target, well, first the target can be damaged or destroyed. Those are two different modes. Then there can be different targets. A sole infantryman is one kind of target. A dugout where supposed there are some, enemies there is another kind of target, and a some mechanical equipment is another type of target. Radio emitting equipment, which, like, often, like, the targets that the military want to get more than anything else is the some enemy radio tower or something like that or some small radio dish that really makes life difficult in that area, in that combat area. So those are different targets, right? It can be destroyed, can be damaged.Then sometimes, the drone hits but doesn't explode. Like, that happens. And then, there are other failure modes. You didn't even reach the target because you were A jammed by electronic warfare; B, you lost the control over drone because of the radio horizon; C, you were jammed by a different type of electronic warfare that happens way before You hit the target area. It's, impacting your, video receiver. So like jamming on video or jamming on control are two different types of jamming. Then something malfunctioned on a drone, just a mechanical malfunction, maybe like a motor broke or like, whatever. So all of those are different failure modes. Yeah, or maybe you got lost, you're navigate navigating to your, to your target. That happens, too.Noah [00:37:41]: The Level one autonomy, basically you manage to point in a direction.Noah [00:37:49]: You go there, and then the last mile The drone taking over.Yaroslav [00:37:52]: We define this like, I define that but it sort of got picked up by the industry. We define five levels of autonomy. So level one is terminal guidance. It's what we just discussed. Level two is bombing. Level three is autonomous target detection and engagement decision. Level four is autonomous navigation. And level five is autonomous takeoff and landing.Noah [00:38:15]: Those are good things to knowYaroslav [00:38:16]: Those are five levels of autonomy. Now, if youNoah [00:38:19]: I have a question for you.Yaroslav [00:38:19]: Sorry. Like, let me finish withNoah [00:38:21]: SorryYaroslav [00:38:21]: Theoretical part.Noah [00:38:23]: What is Tesla running at right now?Yaroslav [00:38:25]: Tesla?Noah [00:38:25]: No, sorry.Yaroslav [00:38:26]: That's very good point. Like, it's exactly, it was inspired by the levels of self-driving autonomy.Noah [00:38:32]: Waymo's level five, right?Noah [00:38:35]: You just tell it where you want to go, it picks you up, and then you go there.Yaroslav [00:38:36]: I think, like, if you, if you look at the classic definitions of self-driving cars, Waymo is still, like, level four because it still requires even remote, but still, like, human control. It's like if Waymo gets in trouble, there is an operator who takes over and resolves this. So that would still be a level four. It doesn't map directly, but it's also five levels.Brandon [00:38:58]: Can I, can I interject a question here? In terms of an FPV drone that's like a suicide drone that'll just blow itself up killing something, how do what it hit? Like, does it, just transmit back, or do you sort of like, lose track of it and hope it hit? Like, what happens to that?Yaroslav [00:39:16]: That's a great question. SoBrandon [00:39:18]: You need another droneYaroslav [00:39:19]: Like, the current battlefield in Ukraine is saturated with different types of drones. So obviously you have all the FPV drones and last year alone, Ukraine manufactured about 4 million of these, and then Russia's maybe, like, 20% less than that. And for this year, the publicly voiced target was 7 million on Ukrainian side. So it's, like, serious numbers. We're getting in serious numbers here. And then besides those, there are different, reconnaissance drones, ISR as we call them, and there are sort of tactical level ISR where we, both Ukrainians and Russians usually use, Mavic, drone by DJI. And then there are a bunch of locally produced drones, which are sort of fixed wing drones that can stay in the air for much longer than Mavic, maybe, like, half an hour. And then, there are drones that can stay for many hours or even up to a day. And those drones have, are more expensive, have more expensive cameras, et cetera, et cetera. We hunt those drones that Russians launch. The Russians hunt our drones, and so on. But ideally, when you, are a group of soldiers operating an FPV, you'll have someone in your, company, or someone in your platoon who has an ISR asset that will do target designation for you. They'll say, “Oh, like, there's a Russian vehicle over there. Go and get him.”and you go there, you get it, and they're like, “Okay, confirmed.”Battlefield Surveillance and the Eight Dimensions of AutonomyBrandon [00:40:57]: Those guys are watching. They have their own drones in the sky.Yaroslav [00:40:59]: Target destroyed. They have, like, a carousel of drones because One Mavic cannot stay more than 30 minutes. ItBrandon [00:41:06]: They're constantly surveilling the battlefield.Yaroslav [00:41:07]: Almost every spot on the battlefield.Yaroslav [00:41:11]: It's not always the case. Sometimes you will not have a surveillance asset, so then you would launch another FPV just to confirm that there was a hit. Then if you see there was a hit and you're not sure if it completely destroyed, you maybe hit again for good measure.Brandon [00:41:26]: You double tap.Yaroslav [00:41:28]: That's how it works. But I was about to give you another sort of piece of taxonomy. So you have five levels of autonomy, right? Then you have sort of eight dimensions of autonomous battlefield. So what is eight dimensions? It's crucial to understand how autonomy evolves in a modern, battlefield environment. So dimension number one is level of autonomy. What are the capabilities that your asset has? Dimension number two is the platform you're operating on. So it can be a quadcopter, a fixed wing drone, different types of maybe, like, a long range drone or short range drone, but it can also be a missile. You can have autonomy even on an artillery shell or a ground vehicle or a sea vehicle. So all of those are different platforms. Level three would be domain. So it's ground to ground or ground to air as an intersection, or ground to sea or sea to air. They're all, like, all the nuances with different domains. Then level four, would be higher levels of autonomy, such as swarming, drone carriers, drone nests, et cetera.Brandon [00:42:39]: Now when you're saying level, you're talking about dimensions, not about-Yaroslav [00:42:42]: Sorry. YeahBrandon [00:42:43]: Autonomy levels. So dimension four.Yaroslav [00:42:43]: The dimension. Yeah, I used to say I was supposed to say dimension. I say dimension because each of them works with another, right? So you might have, like third level autonomy, fixed wing drone operating in land to air, and stuff like that right? And then operating in a swarm or operating from a nest. Right? Then you have, sort of dimension number five is environment. So is it day or night? Is it summer or winter? Is it, humid, cold, dry? What kind of target is it? Is your target hiding in a forest, or is it, behind a hill or within buildings? So all of that is environment. Then you have, dimension number six is command and control. How are you dealing with or like, tens of thousands of those assets around the battlefield? How are you coordinating that on the higher levels of command? How are you collecting data? All that.Yaroslav [00:43:44]: Dimension number seven would be infrastructure, so things like simulation, data collection tools, security, deployment mechanisms, et cetera. So all those systems have to be developed separately and integrate with all the others. And finally, dimension number eight is sort of distribution. Have you deployed 100 of these systems or 100,000 of these systems? Because those are two very different ballgames. So that now gives you a more broad overview of how autonomy propagates across the battle space.Targeting, Human Responsibility, and Rules of EngagementNoah [00:44:23]: As someone who has done machine learning and had gone out of distribution and had things, go horribly wrong, you were talking several of these, kind of axes of thinking about drone warfare seem like they could be very susceptible to some sort of distribution shift if you start making things autonomous.Yaroslav [00:44:41]: Like what?Noah [00:44:41]: I mean Well, first ofYaroslav [00:44:43]: If the I'm very interested Sort of sort of kinds of scenarios that you're thinking about.Noah [00:44:48]: Like the most obvious one is you, if I assume these are computer vision guided systems for at least the last mile, how do you ensure that oh, well, like you now have some fog roll in or something, and you, the drones just attack the wrong thing? Or maybe, it probably will not turn around and fly back and attack you, but youYaroslav [00:45:10]: Same, the same, the same question, how do you ensure that your mortar fire hits the right thing? Well, it's like mortar fire, give or take half a kilometer could be plus or minus. So maybe you fire one, and then you fire another. So drones are actually, much better in being precise in those scenarios. And I think, to your point, I think five to 10 years from now it will be immoral to use weapons without AI.Yaroslav [00:45:44]: ‘Cause weapons without AI will be more likely to cause, collateral damage or unwanted damage. Same way, it will be immoral to drive your own car manually on a public road because it's more likely to cause, unwanted damage.Noah [00:46:02]: Wow, I never considered that mightBrandon [00:46:04]: Really? That's definitely coming.Yaroslav [00:46:07]: Anyway.Brandon [00:46:07]: No, but that' I don't know, it's an obvious, an obvious thought. I agree with you.Brandon [00:46:12]: I, No, they, obviously they're not going to let you drive once most of the cars on the road are autonomous.Noah [00:46:17]: No, that one, don't I believe.Yaroslav [00:46:19]: No, I think you were you were talking about drones, right?Brandon [00:46:21]: The drones, right. Cool.Yaroslav [00:46:22]: The weapons, right?Brandon [00:46:23]: Friendly fire and collateral damage and stuff like that is all minimized with AI.Brandon [00:46:27]: Here's my question. Take all let's go to level six autonomy. Let's take all of the target selection. Let's take all the battlefield data, integrate it into one big AI, and have that big AI basically be in command of the battlefield And agentically do target selection.Yaroslav [00:46:44]: Be the general, right?Brandon [00:46:44]: It's a general. It's, you've cut humans out of the loop except maybe as dexterous robots, repairing drones and fastening things to drones or maybe something like that because you don't have those robots yet. How soon are we there? AI general.Yaroslav [00:46:58]: The most important thing to ask ourselves is who will be faster to that us or our adversaries?Brandon [00:47:07]: I assume us, but how fast will we be to that? I hope us.Yaroslav [00:47:11]: I hope so too.Brandon [00:47:12]: How fast can we Like when are we looking at that in terms of like horizons years?Yaroslav [00:47:18]: Like technically, it could be done now. The question is of course, there's, some engineering work to be done. The bigger challenge is deployment. Right? So okay, technically Like operation in Iran, right? They, the publicly, it was claimed that I think Palantir system was used for target designation, et cetera, et cetera. So it is not exactly as you say, the AI makes all the decisions, but basically AI goes through all the data you have, gives you these 1,027 different targets and says, “You-- To confirm, please press Okay.” And you look at the targets and you're like, “Yeah, sounds right. Press Okay.”so that's, I think that's where we are now already, or we were a couple weeks ago as we're recording this on April 10th. Another question is how massively deployable it is. Is it, like, every decision being made like that or is it, like, just some of the decisions made like that? And then different levels of command and control. There you have, like, the platoon, the company level, the battalion, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But the tricky thing here when we get into that territory, the tricky thing is If your enemy is getting advantage of being Thousand times faster than yourself by deploying such systems What do you do?Yaroslav [00:49:10]: You got to-Brandon [00:49:12]: The if the enemy is a thousand times faster than you at deploying those systems?Yaroslav [00:49:16]: Like, if enemy starts deploying level six autonomy, as you call And you have not started doingBrandon [00:49:22]: You're in troubleYaroslav [00:49:23]: Yes, exactly. So you have to catch up. So my point is that it is very important to think about the safety of these systems, but that thinking should not slow you down in developing them because they are critical for your existential, survival, right? And like, one person who doesn't think, doesn't get to think about the ethics of the war is a dead person. That person surely doesn't get to think about that.Brandon [00:49:52]: What would be the safety risk of such a system?Yaroslav [00:49:55]: Of course-Brandon [00:49:56]: Friendly fire?Yaroslav [00:49:56]: Just wrong decisions, right?Brandon [00:49:59]: I see.Yaroslav [00:49:59]: Maybe, these decisions-AI Command Decisions, Dead Zones, and Complex BattlefieldsBrandon [00:50:06]: Skynet AI decides it's going to useYaroslav [00:50:08]: No, these-Brandon [00:50:08]: Drone army to kill usYaroslav [00:50:09]: Decisions will not only be made about drones. They are likely to made about what the humans should do on your side as well. Then obviously some environments are more like Ukrainian-Russian war, where you haveBrandon [00:50:26]: It will have to choose to risk lives. It will have to choose to sacrifice human lives-Yaroslav [00:50:28]: Of courseBrandon [00:50:29]: On your side.Yaroslav [00:50:29]: Of course. And then some environments are just, like, dead, like, dead zones and there are no civilians there, or virtually no civilians close to the front line because, like, super dangerous. Everyone has evacuated from there. But there are other environments which are more like, okay, there's a counterterrorist operation. There's, like, a group of terrorists or a group of civilians. Or like, it's like the recent operations in Iran, I imagine that the US and Israeli forces do not want to harm civilians. They only targeted the military targets there, right? So in those situations, it's a different level of responsibility for that decision-making as well. And then there is just such a big variety of those military missions, and I'm not even, like, well-informed or well-educated in military science to tell you about all those scenarios. We would need to put some general besides me, and maybe a Ukraine general and American general would have told you very different stories about these things.Brandon [00:51:34]: Got it. Can I ask a few more questions? All right. So in 2013, I wrote one of my first, paid articles ever was about how the era of drones will change human society. I was just sitting around bored thinking about things.Yaroslav [00:51:54]: You were way ahead of your time.Brandon [00:51:55]: I said, I said, “The following will happen.”Yaroslav [00:51:57]: It's, this article is real. I've read it.Yaroslav [00:51:58]: It's actually-Brandon [00:51:59]: I said small autonomous, suicide drones, will cleanse the battlefield of human infantry. Human infantry will not be able to stand against swarms of AI-powered, suicide drones. That was I didn't even know about, like, AlexNet at the time, I think.Yaroslav [00:52:19]: You're just an avid sci-fi reader.Brandon [00:52:23]: I'm an avid sci-fi reader, but also, like, it's not Like, there will be a way to do that. It's a it's a nonlinear multidimensional search problem, and you get enough compute, you'll find some search algorithm that will get you there. And soBrandon [00:52:38]: I, yeah, I think that one sentence describes the bitter lesson right there.Brandon [00:52:41]: It's just like it's a multidimensional search space. You search it somehow. I don't know. Figure out some get a grad student-Yaroslav [00:52:47]: Sooner or laterBrandon [00:52:47]: To make a search algorithm.Brandon [00:52:48]: It's not that hard. Anyway, so but then, but I guess the point is The point is that human infantry on the battlefield will be will be gone at the end. I wrote that in 2013. Many people on social media laughed at me for that called me hysterical, said things like, “Electronic warfare will knock all the drones out of the sky.”like, “You need humans to hold ground.”that's something you still hear from a lot of people on social media today. I feel that this article that I've written has never been directionally wrong. It has gotten more and more right steadily over time, and that we're very reading the battlefield reports from Ukraine, where, human infantry are basically guy, like a few guys hiding in dugouts for months, and I'm not sure what they're doing.Yaroslav [00:53:35]: That's on Ukraine's side. On the Russian side, that's just like a zerg rush.Brandon [00:53:38]: The zerg rush, and then they just die. Then, but they have some guys in dugouts too, right? Like hiding in dugouts for months.Yaroslav [00:53:45]: They have. Yeah.Brandon [00:53:45]: Like, but that like, what are those guys doing in the dugouts? Are providing, like, frontline, like, reconnaissance? Like, what are they doing?Yaroslav [00:53:54]: If there is a guy in a dugout with some bullets and automatic weapon, the other guy cannot come and take the that dugout. That'Brandon [00:54:07]: I seeYaroslav [00:54:08]: They are they're establishing control over territory.Brandon [00:54:10]: I see. So that is so there still is a use for human infantry on the battlefield as of today.Yaroslav [00:54:15]: LikeBrandon [00:54:15]: How long will that last?Yaroslav [00:54:17]: I think it will last for a while. This is funny. There's this whole Layer of the modern culture, a modern Ukraine culture built around the war-related stuff. So there is this -Punk rock band, that is called SZC, I guess in English that would be. Which stands short for like a deserter or something like that. So anyhow, this band has a song titled “2030.” It's basically about the year 2030, and the war still goes on as like the whatever, third world war or whatever. And they basically, they, sang about the AI and like cyborgs and everything, but the simple infantry is still needed, and we're still, like, getting cold in those dugouts, and we're still doing our job. That's sort of the theme of the song. And it seems like that's actually what's going to happen. There areGround Robots, Simulation, and the Limits of World ModelsBrandon [00:55:30]: Ground robots will not replace humans in the dugouts soon.Yaroslav [00:55:34]: I'm very much interested in following the whole humanoid robot theme andBrandon [00:55:39]: What about like a dog robot?Noah [00:55:41]: Or just mobile controlled platforms or something.Brandon [00:55:44]: Spider robot, yeah.Brandon [00:55:45]: Everything evolves into a crab.Brandon [00:55:46]: You build a crab robot.Yaroslav [00:55:47]: A humanoid-Noah [00:55:48]: The carcinization of warfare.Yaroslav [00:55:51]: There is a lot of utility in humanoid robots because the world is designed around humanoids. So I would not, like, 100% disqualify the possibility that sometimes 10 years in the future, humanoid robots, will be actually fighting. So that's an actual Terminator kind of scenario.Brandon [00:56:14]: Yeah, in the first Terminator movie, you look at what they've got on the battlefield, they've got flying bomber drones and humanoid robots.Yaroslav [00:56:20]: Look, the cost of large language models of running them is getting so low, you can have basically an inexpensive computer running, what was a state-of-the-art model a year and a half ago, running it locally on a device with an open source model, which also means that the Chinese can have it, the Russians can have it, the North Koreans can have it, et cetera. So that is already possible. And with when we're looking at the acceleration of the neural nets, I would've, if not the acceleration of the large language models, I would've said that I don't think that humanoid robots will be able to be useful in the battlefield earlier than in 10 years. But if you account for the exponential, it might be five years or so. The problem with all of the autonomous systems, and it's like starts with self-driving cars and even with all the AI, like modern day AI agents, to make them really, useful, you have to solve such a long tail of edge cases, that it's really difficult to make them useful. Like we were promised, self-driving cars, what, like 2007, Sebastian Thrun and Google, and even before that all the challenges, everything. And Elon of course told us it's going to be one year from 2014, and now we still don't have self-driving Teslas everywhere. We have Waymos in SF and some other places, but they're still, like, not perfect. So I think, I expect something similar from self-flying drones and fully autonomous drones, and we saw that firsthand as with each level of autonomy that we're adding, there is a very wide distance between a prototype and something that is ready to be scaled to millions of units and something that has been scaled to millions of units. But the race with like AI coding tools is just insane. So things might accelerate very fast, faster than we can imagine.Noah [00:58:46]: I think your point is that with due to this long tail behavior Level one autonomy as you've defined it, is actually very natural. Like you basically are just solving an image recognition and tracking system.Yaroslav [00:59:02]: It's actually interesting that you say it that way, and I thought about this the very same way, and we have this joke that there are like 200 companies in Ukraine which are trying to solve last mile, targeting or terminal guidance. It seems like we're like the only company that actually solved that because even that problem-Noah [00:59:22]: I'm not saying it's, I'm not saying it's trivial, but it's at least something that you imagine given our current state.Yaroslav [00:59:26]: Like us and Eric Schmidt, like Eric Schmidt's companies are pretty good.Yaroslav [00:59:29]: Like, I actually have lots of respect to what they're doing, and they're, they have been practically influential and helpful on the battlefield, and they have good engineering.Noah [00:59:38]: I wasn't, I wasn't saying it's trivial. I'm just saying this is a something naturally adaptive based upon things that we know work, well. But some of the other domains that where you do have to make decisions and you have a long tail become much harder, and you worry about edge cases more.Yaroslav [00:59:57]: Like the more, the more complex behavior you're trying to simulate, the more edge cases there are right? The more ways to do it wrong there are. And then there are different approaches. It's like if you think about, if you read academic papers about robotics, right? You sort of the robot is represented as something that has the sort of sensor input, and then you have three, levels of sort of logics or decision-making, which are perception, planning, and control, and then you have actuators as output.So pre-neural nets, you would do perception output and control all with classic logics, right? Then, with AlexNet and computer vision, you could do perception with neural nets and the rest with logic. You cannot currently do each of those separately with neural nets, each of those separately with logics, or you can just have one huge neural net that just takes lots of sensory data. It's not just pixels. Could be sound, could be accelerometer, could be everything, as input, and just outputs the controls. And some of the self-driving car companies are doing that or like, experimenting between different ways of doing that. So you can also, like, think about that and the way you implement those features, also influences how much degrees of freedom the system would have, right? Like control, you can do it classical algorithmic control with common filters and PAD filter, PAD controllers, et cetera, or you can do a neural net, that was trained in a gym with a reinforcement learning, et cetera. And those would be two different behaviors of a system.Noah [01:01:53]: I-- Maybe my point was just much more high level. It'Yaroslav [01:01:56]: Or you can If you go even like, if you go high level, you can, you can like train to like have whatever, like Feifei Li and folks who are doing like physical, sortBrandon [01:02:08]: World modelsYaroslav [01:02:08]: World models, right, physical intelligence, they're trying to make these big models and sort of understand the world and then supposedly you have such model and you can tell a drone, “Okay, like, go over that hill and like, find the bad guys and then get them,”or “Make me a video, make me a photo of the guy smiling and get back to me.” Right? That's one way. Another way you have like these subsystems, like one is navigation, another is finding the person, another is like getting to them to take a photo. And those are again, very different behaviors. And then it's not that one is necessarily better than the other, and we might have more technological ability to do one or another. But all of those systems will exist. And then again, you should always keep in mind that it's only the not only the good guys that are developing these systems, the bad guys are developing these systems as well.China's Drone Supply Chain and the West's Manufacturing GapNoah [01:03:00]: I guess where I'm going with this back to Noah's original thought with the end of the end of the soldier. And so in order to replace-Brandon [01:03:10]: Or at least the end of the rifleman.Noah [01:03:11]: Or the end of the rifleman, yeah.Yaroslav [01:03:13]: I'm not seeing that very close, and it was like I'm, as much as I'm a lover of sci-fi and all of that and a technologist, the more I try to beYaroslav [01:03:27]: Like the I try to have certain humility about these things, and like the military, domain and there was just so much human history and blood and tears, dedicated to sort of understanding this art of war and perfecting it and so on. There is so much knowledge in there that I don't feel like I even started to comprehend, a lot of that. But one thing that I really understood is that even though drones are now making eighty percent of the casualties, you go to the actual officers, you talk to the actual, like, brigade commanders, corps commanders, and they explain to you, how all of it fits together, how when you're thinking about an operation that involves a couple thousand people to get this piece of land, out of the enemy's hands, deoccu deoccupy it, how it is so complex, it involves, dozens of different types of drones and then land operations and reconnaissance operations, psychological operations and then aviations and tanks and logistics and all kinds of these different assets. So modern warfare is really very complex, and the fact that the drones are the latest, coolest thing, and then the AI is latest, coolest thing, doesn't mean that now it's that and only that right? So yeah. Whoever's looking into that I think should realize that it's not just what the press talks about, that the reality is much more difficult, much more complex.Brandon [01:05:17]: Let's talk about China and China's manufacturing capabilities. So suppose that someone, like suppose the United States went to war with China. AndYaroslav [01:05:26]: I hope not.Brandon [01:05:27]: I hope not as well. And then but suppose that drones were very essential to that war of all the types of drones that we're talking about here, and that suppose that China said, “All right, well, you need X and Y and Z, to make those drones to fight us, and we control the production of X and Y and Z, so we're just going to cut you right off, and now you have no drones.”Brandon [01:05:47]: I know that a number of countries, including Ukraine and Taiwan, have been making moves to China-proof their drone productions that China couldn't do that. Examples of things they might be able to cut off might include rare earths, fiber optic cable that you were talking about before, various other things that where even if they don't control one hundred percent of the production, they control enough of the production that would be extremely expensive to produce it without relying on Chinese sources. Or the market's fragmented enough, et cetera. What do you see as China's key bottlenecks, and how easy are those to overcome in terms of China-proofing drone production in case of a war against China?Yaroslav [01:06:30]: Let me start with a saying that -Although China does not sell directly to Ukraine and it does sell directly to Russia, a lot of Ukrainian supply chains, they start in China, right?Yaroslav [01:06:49]: We're not in a conflict with China, and we would not want to be in a conflict with China. And we'd hope that China stays a neutral power between Ukraine and Russia and the US as well. That said, the scenario that you're describing, everything is much worse.Yaroslav [01:07:11]: Think about this. Last year, Ukraine produced four million FPV drones. Ukraine is not the most industrious nation in the world.Yaroslav [01:07:19]: China can produce four billion of these FPV drones.Yaroslav [01:07:23]: China can make them not drones with propellers, but fixed-wing drones, which go not forty kilometers far, but maybe two to three hundred kilometers inland.

9:00am service: Noah Smith, Kyle Zidlicky, Quinn Kurcz, Aliana Rasavongxay, Lawson Kay, Brock Bradley, Grady Wood 10:30am service: Grace Magnusson, Owen Fitch, Lydia Stromberg, Jacob Tarnowski, Lauren Whitehead, Nathan Dalton, Austin Kempe

Welcome to Episode 090 of the Beyond the Diagnosis Podcast. In this heartfelt episode, Kristin Aaron shares the inspiring story of her son Jenson, whose joyful spirit sparked the Monkey Grins initiative, bringing smiles to children battling histiocytosis and their siblings. Despite the challenges of Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH), Jenson's legacy of love and resilience continues to uplift families worldwide. Discover how advocacy, community support, and simple acts of kindness can transform grief into a powerful force for good. Join us for a conversation that proves even the smallest gestures can make a world of difference. Let us know what you think! Leave us a review, drop us a comment or share an idea for a future podcast with us at podcast@histio.org.   Take a screenshot and tag us @histiocytosis_association on Instagram. We'd love to hear your feedback!  Be sure to subscribe so you can be notified the moment a new episode of Beyond the Diagnosis is released.   Resources mentioned in the podcast: Request a Monkey Grin Interested in donating to the Monkey Grins program?  You can do so here. Register for our Two-Part Webinar Series  A chance to learn, reflect, and feel supported-join us for one or both sessions. This two-part webinar series focuses on supporting your well-being while navigating care. Attend one or both sessions for practical insights and connections.   Register here for May 5th:  Emotional Balance in a World of Chronic Medical Stress  Register here for May 13th: Tools to Thrive: Everyday Habits for Healing and Whole-Body Wellness  Follow the Histiocytosis Association on social media: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/histio Twitter: @histiocytosis Instagram: histiocytosis_association YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Histiocytosis  Music: “Heroes” by Noah Smith

“Let's just say it out loud,” Keith Teare, publisher of the That Was the Week newsletter, says. “AI is not dangerous.” Not all of you will agree. I'm certainly not so sure. But the gruff Yorkshireman is convinced that AI can only benefit humanity. For him, with his scientific faith in historical progress, today's AI revolution is a glorious combination of the Enlightenment and the industrial revolution. The only danger, he warns, is the belief in danger itself. Thus his criticism of Anthropic's Dario Amodei, who has been quite explicit about AI's dangers — and for whom the doom narrative is, in Keith's reading at least, designed as a business strategy to solicit governmental backing without government control. AI Is Not Dangerous. Repeat it. Take your ideological medicine. As if you're in a Silicon Valley seminary. Sing it out loud. As if you're in a Methodist choir. Believe it now? Five Takeaways •       The Economist's “Lowlife” Moment: Keith's editorial was triggered by The Economist's forty-five-minute video on the five men running AI — the title alone, “How to Control the Men Who Control AI,” was enough. Why would The Economist think it could control them? And why focus on the personalities rather than the technology, the applications, or the actual human impact? Judging the AI industry by its CEOs is like judging a film by the leading actor's personality rather than the script or the performances. It's the wrong focus — and in Keith's view, a low one for a publication that should know better. The cult of personality is a media creation, feeding on controversy because controversy sells subscriptions. •       AI Is Not Dangerous. Full Stop. Keith's boldest claim: AI is not dangerous — not a little, not potentially, not in the wrong hands. The doom narrative is a media-driven frenzy, fed by CEOs who give it too much airtime and by a readymade audience of Americans whose well-founded economic pessimism makes them receptive to negative messages. The Stanford AI Index Report shows that America is the country where AI is trusted least — paradoxically, also the country where media has the greatest influence. In China, people trust AI more, not because the government tells them to, but because economic progress gives them reasons for optimism. You get what you pay for. •       Amodei's Pitch Disguised as Science: Keith's reading of Dario Amodei's doom narrative: it is a business strategy. The message — AI might kill us all, AI might make us all unemployed — is not a scientific assessment. It's a pitch for Anthropic specifically: if AI is this dangerous, you can't let anyone else control it, so trust us and give us government backing without government oversight. Contrast with Demis Hassabis, who acknowledges risk and then immediately explains what he's doing about it — taking responsibility rather than pointing the finger. And contrast with Zuckerberg, who Keith describes as sociopathic: “whatever serves my interest is gonna come out of my mouth at any given moment.” •       Consensus Capital and the Winner-Take-All Endgame: Keith's post of the week: 75% of all venture capital raised goes to five funds, and 75% of all VC investment goes into five companies. Noah Smith's piece on winner-take-all AI makes the same point from a different angle: linear extrapolation suggests two, maybe five, companies end up with all the money and power. This is what capitalism does — many car companies became a handful, many banks became a handful. AI will produce the same centralisation, but at unprecedented scale and across every domain simultaneously. The question — how does society benefit? — is the most important question of the era. Altman and Musk at least try to answer it. The others don't. •       Manifest Agency. Lean In. Keith's advice to young people who distrust AI: get involved and shape it, because the alternative is to be a victim of whatever outcome arrives without you. AI is valid and inevitable. The question is what influence you have over it, and the answer is: more than you think, but only if you exercise it. Musk and Altman, for all their faults, are two people who do care — and who talk about UBI and universal high income because they understand that the winner-take-all endgame raises genuine questions about distribution. The Sophie Haigney argument — that all the worst people want to be high-agency — has it backwards. A world without agency is a world where elected officials are accountable to no one. About the Guest Keith Teare is a British-American entrepreneur, investor, and the publisher of the That Was the Week newsletter — a daily curation of the most important stories at the intersection of technology, business, and culture. He is a co-founder of TechCrunch and a long-time interlocutor on Keen On America. References: •       That Was the Week newsletter by Keith Teare — this week's editorial: “The Cult of Personality.” •       “How to Control the Men Who Control AI,” The Economist, April 2026. The video that triggered Keith's editorial. •       “I Don't Think Sam Altman Lies,” by Stewart Alsop — the piece that started the conversation. •       John Thornhill, “AI Has an Awful Image Problem,” Financial Times, April 2026. •       Noah Smith, “What If a Few AI Companies End Up with All the Money and Power?” — the winner-take-all argument. •       Episode 2873: Agency, Agency, Agency — Sophie Haigney on the A-word that Keith takes issue with this week. About Keen On America Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States — hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,900 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting. WebsiteSubstackYouTubeApple PodcastsSpotify Chapters: 

Welcome to Episode 089 of the Beyond the Diagnosis Podcast. In this episode we sit down with 2024 Histio Student Scholarship recipient Brinda Shukla to hear her powerful journey from a Rosai-Dorfman Disease diagnosis at age 13 to pursuing a future in medicine. Brinda shares her personal story, what it was like to apply for and receive the scholarship, and how the experience has supported her academic and professional goals. Let us know what you think! Leave us a review, drop us a comment or share an idea for a future podcast with us at podcast@histio.org.   Take a screenshot and tag us @histiocytosis_association on Instagram. We'd love to hear your feedback!  Be sure to subscribe so you can be notified the moment a new episode of Beyond the Diagnosis is released.   Resources mentioned in the podcast: Histiocytosis Association Student Scholarship Program Follow the Histiocytosis Association on social media: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/histio Twitter: @histiocytosis Instagram: histiocytosis_association YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Histiocytosis  Music: “Heroes” by Noah Smith

Noah Smith joins Erik Torenberg at the 2026 American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.C. to discuss Anthropic's relationship with Washington, bioterrorism risks stemming from AI, why Noah isn't worried about AI causing job loss, and more. - Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 00:28 - Anthropic, DOD, & Government Control of AI 04:28 - Sponsor: NetSuite 09:44 - Advice for Dario & Anthropic 12:13 - Partisan Politics vs. Existential Risk 16:06 - Mass Surveillance & AI 17:30 - The Biosecurity Threat 24:21 - Will AI Take Our Jobs? 28:41 - Outro - Sponsor: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102 - FOLLOW on X: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg https://twitter.com/Noahpinion - Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this engaging conversation, the hosts reconnect after a significant time apart, reflecting on their growth in the podcasting world and the music industry. They discuss the evolution of Noah's Crooner Circus, the impact of weather on music culture, and the importance of authenticity and risk-taking in artistic expression. The dialogue also touches on personal experiences from high school, the influence of punk rock on country music, and the balance between performing covers and original songs. In this engaging conversation, Noah Smith discusses his musical journey, the importance of personal growth, and the evolution of his sound. He emphasizes the significance of live music and human connection, while navigating the complexities of the music industry. The discussion also touches on the dynamics of building a band, the balance between art and life, and the journey of podcasting, reflecting on the challenges and rewards of creative endeavors

“Whether you like Amodei or not, at least he's a leader.” — Andrew KeenDario Amodei is the most interesting man in America right now. Not because he runs a $500 billion company or because he's suing the Trump administration or because Anthropic's Claude topped the iPhone charts. But because he's doing something nobody else in Silicon Valley has the balls to do: he's acting like a human being in public. He has principles, he states them, and he accepts the consequences. That's leadership. It shouldn't be remarkable. In 2026, it is.This week's That Was The Week is about how America both loves and hates AI. An NBC poll found 60–70% of Americans are concerned about AI — making it even less popular than the Democratic Party (quite an achievement). A hundred planned data centers have been cancelled because of local protests. 10,000 authors published an anti AI manifesto at the London Book Fair this week. Each week, in contrast, a billion people used ChatGPT, but these users often seem oblivious to its weaknesses. So Keith's AI-generated video for the show was, by universal agreement (including his own), not going to win an Oscar tomorrow. Except for Most Sloppy AI generated video.Every road this week led back to Amodei who is anything but sloppy. He's become a Rorschach test for the entire industry. Tech progressives Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway are lauding him. The MAGA crowd — including David Sacks, Trump's AI czar — on the All In podcast are doing the opposite. Keith thinks Dario is a naive CEO making bad business decisions — comparing him to his own doomed battle in the late Nineties against Microsoft's Steve Ballmer. It's a fair point. Should a tech CEO really be setting AI policy? Keith's answer is no — that's for people like David Sacks appointed by executive, legislative, and judicial branches. I'm not so sure. In an America defined by its dysfunctional political system, we need leaders like Amodei to take ethical stands. If not, then who?The IPO race this year between Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI makes this particularly interesting. I wonder whether Amodei might use the IPO itself to force a public debate that nobody in government is willing to have. Not just about guardrails or weapons — but about what kind of society AI is building and who gets to decide what does and doesn't get used. Musk, by publicly embracing white racists and other groups of hate, is making his politics clear. Sam Altman, as always, is wearing every hat simultaneously. Amodei, in contrast, knows his hat. Rather than MAGA, it should say: The Most Interesting Man in America. He's got my vote. Even if he's not running for office. Five Takeaways•       AI Is Less Popular Than the Democrats: An NBC poll found 60–70% of Americans are concerned about AI. A hundred data centres have been cancelled due to local protests. 10,000 authors published an anti-AI manifesto at the London Book Fair. Close to a billion people use ChatGPT each week — but the haters are the non-users, and they outnumber the lovers by a wide margin.•       Amodei Is the 21st Century's First Real Leader: He's suing the Trump administration. He's refusing to let Claude be used for autonomous weapons. He's accepting the business consequences. Keith thinks he's naive. I think he's the only person in Silicon Valley acting like a human being in public. The debate between us is the show.•       Keith Compares Amodei to His Own Doomed Battle Against Ballmer: In the late Nineties, Keith fought Microsoft with RealNames and lost. He sees Amodei on the same trajectory — noble, principled, already finished. I compared Keith to Pete Hegseth declaring the Iranian regime defeated. The MAGA crowd on All In, including Trump's AI czar David Sacks, agree with Keith. That alone should give him pause.•       The IPO Race Will Force the Debate: Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI are all expected to go public this year. Amodei could use the IPO to force a conversation about what kind of society AI is building — a conversation nobody in government is willing to have. Musk is making his politics clear by embracing white racists. Altman is wearing every hat. Amodei knows his.•       In the Absence of Leadership, Fear Thrives: Keith's best point of the week. Nobody is setting AI policy. The politicians are clowns. The tech CEOs are children. In the vacuum, fear wins. Amodei is trying to fill it. Whether he succeeds or not, at least he's trying. That's more than anyone else can say. About the GuestKeith Teare is the publisher of That Was The Week and co-founder of SignalRank. He is a serial entrepreneur, former CEO of RealNames, and a regular sparring partner on Keen On America.References:•       That Was The Week: AI Loved and Hated — Keith Teare's editorial.•       Rex Woodbury, “Why Does Everybody Hate AI?” — Digital Native.•       Josh Dzieza, The Verge — on lawyers, PhDs, and scientists in the AI gig economy.•       Noah Smith — “Something Feels Weird About This Economy.”•       Meta's acquisition of Moltbook — the AI agent social network.About Keen On AmericaNobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States — hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,800 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting.WebsiteSubstackYouTubeApple PodcastsSpotify Chapters:(00:00) - Introduction: AI loved and hated (01:17) - NBC poll: AI less popular than the Democrats (03:10) - Rex Woodbury and the haters: is it really AI people hate? (04:21) - AI slop and Keith's terrible video (07:28) - The adoption curve: AI companies are isolated from mainstream opinion (07:51) - Dario Amodei as the answer to both lovers and haters (10:14) - Keith vs Ballmer redux: why Amodei has already lost (12:09) - OpenAI and Google employees rush to Anthropic's defense (14:24) - Woodbury, The Verge, and AI taking jobs (16:51) - Keith's Apple TV app: vibe coded in a weekend (19:29) - AI will destroy universities: cheating at apocalyptic levels (21:41) - Noah Smith: something feels weird about this economy (27:00) - The IPO race: Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX (30:42) - Could Amodei blow up the IPO proce...

"He's blundered here. He's trying to set policy for the government on the use of AI through a sales contract." — Keith Teare on Dario AmodeiThere's only one story this week: Dario Amodei's refusal to let the Department of War use Anthropic's best technology for mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons. Silicon Valley rallied behind him. The New York Times covered it. Sam Altman publicly supported him—while quietly cutting his own deal with the administration. But Keith Teare thinks Anthropic is wrong.Keith's argument is simple: vendors don't set policy. If you want to sell to governments, you can't then dictate what they do with your product. That's not your job. And by trying to do it, Amodei has alienated the entire US administration and created a fake battle that can only damage his company. Andrew is more sympathetic. In his view, Amodei is taking a political position against Trump—and in 2026, with Congress marginalized and corporations increasingly powerful, that's just the nature of things.The debate cuts to something deeper: the power shift between corporations and the state. Oppenheimer couldn't say no to the government because he worked for them. Amodei can say no because he doesn't. These companies now speak to the government as almost equals. Meanwhile, Citruni Research released a white paper predicting AI will collapse the economy and destroy white-collar jobs. Jack Dorsey just cut 40% of Square's workforce. The stock jumped 25%. Five Takeaways●      Keith: Amodei Has Blundered: Vendors don't determine the use of what you buy from them. By trying to set policy through a sales contract, Amodei has alienated the entire US administration and created a fake battle that can only damage his company. He hasn't read the Art of War.●      Andrew: This Is a Political Stand: Amodei isn't naive—he's taking a position against Trump. And in 2026, with Congress marginalized and corporations increasingly powerful, the fact that he's willing to take the government on publicly is astonishing. He's kept his job. The investors are fine with it.●      The Power Has Shifted: Oppenheimer couldn't say no to the government because he worked for them. Amodei can say no because he doesn't. What Anthropic has at its fingertips is not something the government has. These companies now speak to the government as almost equals.●      Silicon Valley Is Split: Right libertarians are small-government supporters of the administration. Left libertarians are bigger-government supporters of welfare. Vinod Khosla is a hybrid—pro-America militarily, fearful of China. Tim Cook does whatever governments tell him. NVIDIA is navigating best.●      Jack Dorsey Cut 40%—Stock Jumped 25%: Citruni Research released a white paper predicting AI will collapse the economy. Noah Smith called it a scary bedtime story. But Dorsey just did it for real at Square. If AI succeeds, lots of white-collar jobs go. The social contract between capital and labor is breaking. About the GuestKeith Teare is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur and publisher of That Was The Week, a weekly tech newsletter. He is a co-founder of TechCrunch and has been a fixture in Silicon Valley for decades.ReferencesThis week's reading:●      Ezra Klein's interview with Jack Clark — Andrew calls it the interview of the week.●      Citruni Research white paper — The AI jobs apocalypse scenario that crashed the software market on Monday.●      Noah Smith's response — Calls the Citruni report a "scary bedtime story."Previous Keen On episodes mentioned:●      Maya Kornberg on Congress being "Stuck" (Episode 2815)●      Arne Westad on pre-WWI parallels (upcoming)About Keen On AmericaNobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States—hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,800 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting.WebsiteSubstackYouTubeApple PodcastsSpotify Chapters:

Welcome to Episode 088 of the Beyond the Diagnosis Podcast. During Rare Disease Week 2026, we're shining a spotlight on something that moves our community forward in powerful ways: advocacy. On this episode we sit down with Nate Saelinger — a Histiocytosis Youth Ambassador, high school sophomore, and passionate advocate — who went to Capitol Hill to participate in Rare Disease Week with the EveryLife Foundation for Rare Diseases. Diagnosed with Langerhans Cell Histiocytosis as a child and continuing to manage diabetes insipidus, Nate is using his voice to help shape conversations around research funding, policy, access to medication and the future of rare disease care. His story is a powerful reminder that advocacy has no age limit — and that sharing lived experience can drive real change. Let us know what you think! Leave us a review, drop us a comment or share an idea for a future podcast with us at podcast@histio.org.   Take a screenshot and tag us @histiocytosis_association on Instagram. We'd love to hear your feedback!  Be sure to subscribe so you can be notified the moment a new episode of Beyond the Diagnosis is released.   Resources mentioned in the podcast: Rare Disease Week with Every Life Foundation Follow the Histiocytosis Association on social media: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/histio Twitter: @histiocytosis Instagram: histiocytosis_association YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Histiocytosis  Music: “Heroes” by Noah Smith

"Two years from now, all white-collar jobs may be gone." — Dario Amodei (via Keith Teare)Keith Teare leads this week's tech roundup with a video he made on Google's Veo: one glass half-full of water, another half-full of spiders. It's a metaphor for the AI moment. The water represents the tools released in the past two weeks—Anthropic's Claude 4.6, OpenAI's CodeX 5.3—which Keith calls "beyond belief." The spiders represent the fear, which he acknowledges is not irrational. But maybe spiders are the wrong metaphor. Maybe we're the frogs being slowly boiled, not noticing the temperature rise until it's too late.The trigger was Matt Schumer's viral essay "Something Big is Happening," which got 50 million views by telling engineers to become AI experts immediately or become irrelevant. Keith tested the thesis: he built venturebets.io, a prediction market, in a single day. He automated That Was The Week so completely that his weekly workflow dropped from six hours to under one. But then Dario Amodei and Satya Nadella both said the quiet part loud: in two years, there may be no white-collar jobs left. Keith's response? The glass doesn't contain jobs—it contains the future of life. And he'd rather have time to make videos of spiders crawling out of glasses than spend six hours curating links. The rest of us may not have the luxury of choosing. About the GuestKeith Teare is a serial entrepreneur and investor, founder of SignalRank, and author of the newsletter That Was The Week. He co-hosts the weekly tech roundup on Keen On America.ReferencesEssays discussed:●      Matt Schumer's "Something Big is Happening" went viral with 50 million views, arguing that engineers must become AI experts immediately or face obsolescence.●      Noah Smith published two essays: "The Fall of the Nerds" and "You Are No Longer the Smartest Type of Thing on Earth," arguing that humanity's destiny is now mostly out of our own hands.●      Josh Tyrangiel wrote "America Isn't Ready for What AI Will Do to Jobs" in The Atlantic.●      The Financial Times published "Anthropic's Breakout Moment" on the company's enterprise momentum.Tools and companies mentioned:●      Claude 4.6 from Anthropic and CodeX 5.3 from OpenAI represent a "step change" in agentic AI—you give tasks, not prompts, and sub-agents complete them autonomously.●      Google Veo is Google's video generation tool, which Keith used to create the glass-half-full-of-spiders metaphor.●      Polymarket and Kalshi are prediction markets that Keith's new venturebets.io aims to match in quality.People mentioned:●      Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, predicted that white-collar jobs may be gone in two years.●      Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, echoed Amodei's prediction about the end of white-collar work.About Keen On AmericaNobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States—hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,800 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting.WebsiteSubstackYouTubeApple PodcastsSpotifyChapters:(00:00) - The glass half-full of spiders (01:30) - Matt Schumer's viral essay (03:15) - Every week is the biggest week in AI (04:30) - Claude 4.6 and CodeX 5.3: a step change (06:00) - Keith builds a prediction market in a day (07:45) - Fear is a bad operating system (09:30) - What's actually changed with That Was The Week? (12:00) - Trusting the algorithm to read for you (14:00) - Noah Smith: You're no longer the smartest thing on Earth (16:00) - The rabbit vs. the tiger (17:30) - Google's quantum computer and parallel universes (19:00) - America isn't ready for what AI will do to jobs (20:30) - Amodei and Nadella: two years to no white-collar jobs (22:00) - What's in the glass is the future of life (24:00) - Anthropic's breakout moment (26:00) - Claude Code vs. CodeX: Keith switches sides

Welcome to Episode 087 of the Beyond the Diagnosis Podcast. In this episode Kathy welcomes Dr. Karen Rech from the Mayo Clinic to discuss her groundbreaking research on Erdheim-Chester Disease (ECD). The conversation delves into the challenges of diagnosing ECD, highlighting the significance of cyclin D1 overexpression as a potential marker. Dr. Rech explains how this discovery aids in distinguishing ECD from other histiocytic neoplasms and reactive infiltrates, offering hope for quicker and more accurate diagnoses and emphasizes the importance of multidisciplinary collaboration and the advancements in understanding ECD, providing valuable insights for both clinicians and patients. Let us know what you think! Leave us a review, drop us a comment or share an idea for a future podcast with us at podcast@histio.org.   Take a screenshot and tag us @histiocytosis_association on Instagram. We'd love to hear your feedback!  Be sure to subscribe so you can be notified the moment a new episode of Beyond the Diagnosis is released.   Resources mentioned in the podcast: Read the abstract Cyclin D1 Overexpression With Cytoplasmic Localization Distinguishes Erdheim-Chester Disease From Reactive Histiocytic Infiltrates here: The American Journal of Surgical Pathology Follow the Histiocytosis Association on social media: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/histio Twitter: @histiocytosis Instagram: histiocytosis_association YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Histiocytosis  Music: “Heroes” by Noah Smith 

The new mayor appeared to clear the bar with the city's response to the first big snow on his watch. Meanwhile, his predecessor's people were in the news again as Adams' former chief of staff is reportedly the subject of a federal grand jury while his favorite deputy mayor for public safety is taking a new job working for ICE in Long Island. Hosts Christina Greer, Katie Honan and Harry Siegel discuss all that and much more including what the ICE killings in Minneapolis mean for New York, and how Italian-Irish tensions in the Catholic church helped create a Sabrina Carpenter-Eric Adams crossover episode. Noah Smith engineered this episode.

Nearly every headline seems to warn of new crises, deepening divides or threats to the planet. Yet a very different story emerges when you widen the lens.  A new book, A Century of Plenty, takes a longer, historical and more hopeful view. Over the past 100 years, humans have made unprecedented progress, from longer lifespans to dramatically reduced poverty: “On average, people now live 40 years longer than they did. From Lagos to London, economic growth has hauled billions of people out of poverty and empowered them to lead rewarding lives.” The forthcoming book, by researchers at the McKinsey Global Institute, examines what powered the “progress machine” of the last century, while acknowledging that the gains were inconsistent and not shared equally. What would it take for all countries in the world to achieve the standard of living of, say, Switzerland by 2100? For one thing, the global economy would have to grow to eight times the size it is today. Is this realistic? Will the world have enough energy, food, metals and minerals? Can we keep innovating quickly enough? Can we deliver prosperity while protecting our planet?“This future is, in fact, possible and perhaps likely, even if progress is always fraught with challenge and humanity lives on the edge,” the book concludes. We'll talk with co-author Chris Bradley, economist Noah Smith, and other experts about the lessons from the past 100 years, and how they can be applied to ensure even greater future prosperity. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Arthur Tress, whose newly published photographs of gay men in Central Park's Ramble in 1968 and 1969 are the earliest shots of outdoor cruising in a natural setting, joins Harry Siegel and Alex Krales on Lit NYC to discuss his work in a New York City where homosexuality was still a taboo and a crime, why he's publishing it now, and much more. This episode was engineered by Noah Smith, and produced by Harry, Alex and Amy Sohn.

Eric Adams said we'd miss him when he's gone as mayor, but he's still popping up — hawking an NYC cryptocoin in Times Square and taking potshots at his replacement when he isn't jet-setting or lashing out at an airport heckler. The hosts discuss that and much more, including Zohran Mamdani's push after winning his own race to elect more socialists and the Democrats who aren't happy about it. This episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, and Harry Siegel, who's also the FAQ NYC podcast network's executive producer. It was engineerred by Noah Smith.

Not even two weeks into the big job, Zohran Mamdani and his team are up and running — yet still struggling to get their footing. Hosts Christina Greer, Katie Honan and Harry Siegel dig into that and much more, including the new mayor's responses to pro-Hamas chants in Queens, and to two fatal police shootings in the same day. This episode was engineered by Noah Smith.

Aishwarya Naresh Reganti and Kiriti Badam have helped build and launch more than 50 enterprise AI products across companies like OpenAI, Google, Amazon, and Databricks. Based on these experiences, they've developed a small set of best practices for building and scaling successful AI products. The goal of this conversation is to save you and your team a lot of pain and suffering.We discuss:1. Two key ways AI products differ from traditional software, and why that fundamentally changes how they should be built2. Common patterns and anti-patterns in companies that build strong AI products versus those that struggle3. A framework they developed from real-world experience to iteratively build AI products that create a flywheel of improvement4. Why obsessing about customer trust and reliability is an underrated driver of successful AI products5. Why evals aren't a cure-all, and the most common misconceptions people have about them6. The skills that matter most for builders in the AI era—Brought to you by:Merge—The fastest way to ship 220+ integrations: https://merge.dev/lennyStrella—The AI-powered customer research platform: https://strella.io/lennyBrex—The banking solution for startups: https://www.brex.com/product/business-account?ref_code=bmk_dp_brand1H25_ln_new_fs—Transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/what-openai-and-google-engineers-learned—My biggest takeaways (for paid newsletter subscribers): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/i/183007822/referenced—Get 15% off Aishwarya and Kiriti's Maven course, Building Agentic AI Applications with a Problem-First Approach, using this link: https://bit.ly/3V5XJFp—Where to find Aishwarya Naresh Reganti:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/areganti• GitHub: https://github.com/aishwaryanr/awesome-generative-ai-guide• X: https://x.com/aish_reganti—Where to find Kiriti Badam:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sai-kiriti-badam• X: https://x.com/kiritibadam—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Introduction to Aishwarya and Kiriti(05:03) Challenges in AI product development(07:36) Key differences between AI and traditional software(13:19) Building AI products: start small and scale(15:23) The importance of human control in AI systems(22:38) Avoiding prompt injection and jailbreaking(25:18) Patterns for successful AI product development(33:20) The debate on evals and production monitoring(41:27) Codex team's approach to evals and customer feedback(45:41) Continuous calibration, continuous development (CC/CD) framework(58:07) Emerging patterns and calibration(01:01:24) Overhyped and under-hyped AI concepts(01:05:17) The future of AI(01:08:41) Skills and best practices for building AI products(01:14:04) Lightning round and final thoughts—Referenced:• LevelUp Labs: https://levelup-labs.ai/• Why your AI product needs a different development lifecycle: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-your-ai-product-needs-a-different• Booking.com: https://www.booking.com• Research paper on agents in production (by Matei Zaharia's lab): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.04123• Matei Zaharia's research on Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=I1EvjZsAAAAJ&hl=en• The coming AI security crisis (and what to do about it) | Sander Schulhoff: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-coming-ai-security-crisis• Gajen Kandiah on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gajenkandiah• Rackspace: https://www.rackspace.com• The AI-native startup: 5 products, 7-figure revenue, 100% AI-written code | Dan Shipper (co-founder/CEO of Every): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-every-dan-shipper• Semantic Diffusion: https://martinfowler.com/bliki/SemanticDiffusion.html• LMArena: https://lmarena.ai• Artificial Analysis: https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/providers• Why humans are AI's biggest bottleneck (and what's coming in 2026) | Alexander Embiricos (OpenAI Codex Product Lead): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-humans-are-ais-biggest-bottleneck• Airline held liable for its chatbot giving passenger bad advice—what this means for travellers: https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20240222-air-canada-chatbot-misinformation-what-travellers-should-know• Demis Hassabis on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/demishassabis• We replaced our sales team with 20 AI agents—here's what happened | Jason Lemkin (SaaStr): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/we-replaced-our-sales-team-with-20-ai-agents• Socrates's quote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_unexamined_life_is_not_worth_living• Noah Smith's newsletter: https://www.noahpinion.blog• Silicon Valley on HBO Max: https://www.hbomax.com/shows/silicon-valley/b4583939-e39f-4b5c-822d-5b6cc186172d• Clair Obscur: Expedition 33: https://store.steampowered.com/app/1903340/Clair_Obscur_Expedition_33/• Wisprflow: https://wisprflow.ai• Raycast: https://www.raycast.com• Steve Jobs's quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/463176-you-can-t-connect-the-dots-looking-forward-you-can-only—Recommended books:•  When Breath Becomes Air: https://www.amazon.com/When-Breath-Becomes-Paul-Kalanithi/dp/081298840X• The Three-Body Problem: https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-Cixin-Liu/dp/0765382032• A Fire Upon the Deep: https://www.amazon.com/Fire-Upon-Deep-Zones-Thought/dp/0812515285—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. To hear more, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com

An iconic restaurant in Fulton Mall became an Arby's, before it was revived amid the pandemic. St. John Frizell, one of the stewards of Gage and Tollner joins Lit NYC hosts Amy Sohn and Harry Siegel to talk about the craft of the cocktail, the business of Brooklyn, the nature of the great good place, and much more. This episode was produced by Amy and Harry, and engineered by Noah Smith.

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102. NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growthTraditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehiclesChinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goalsThe Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violenceAn economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like HamasGulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertiseIsrael has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticismIsrael's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliancesIsrael remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilitiesRegular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extremeYoung political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist contentThe speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipatedUnlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes outDiscussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politicsConcern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringeThe conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengageThere's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents-Timestamps:00:00 — Introduction00:24 — Europe and Russia03:02 — China and Electric Cars04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement22:50 — Staffers and Extremism24:25 – Sponsor: Found25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics34:11 — Race and Identity38:06 — Islam and Immigration38:44 — Identitarian Populism41:44 — Closing Thoughts-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As the mayor elect races to get ready for a big show and the big job, Eric Adams has been awfully busy in his final few days in office. Christina Greer and Harry Siegel discuss all that and much more — including then longshot Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani's public promise way back when to give our podcast his first interview as mayor. This episode was engineered by Noah Smith.

In 1980, a movie narrated by a sociologist once described as Jimmy Stewart's urban planner cousin, and full of surveillance footage of the city's public spaces, delivered perhaps the richest and wisest look ever made at how New Yorkers use the city's public spaces. Municipal Art Society president Keri Butler joins LIT NYC hosts Harry Siegel and Amy Sohn to discuss William H. Whyte's brilliant The Social Life of Small Urban Spaces, which of his zen koans about those spaces have stood the test of time in a technologically transformed world, and much more. This episode was produced by Amy Sohn, and engineered by Noah Smith.

“In my quest to be more American than Americans, I wanted to know more than American music [and in 1972] I was staying with a great fiddle player and banjo player in North Carolina named Tommy Jarrell and he was puzzled, because a lot of the people who had come from up north to study with him were Jews and Italians — people for whom this was not their continuity. Tommy was a very inquisitive guy and at one point he asked me, ‘Hank, don't your people got none of your own music?'… That sent me scuttling back to Brooklyn to begin the same kind of research that I had done for hillbilly music.” Henry H. Sapoznik, the author of the Tourist's Guide To Lost Yiddish New York City and a Grammy-nominated musician and producer, sits down with Lit Nyc hosts Harry Siegel and and Amy Sohn for a wide-ranging conversation about assimilation and adaptability, the difference between faux music and folk music, the overlaps between kosher, halal and Chinese foods, and much more. This episode was produced by Amy Sohn and Noah Smith, and engineered by Noah Smith.

Amid the silly season of transition speculation, New Yorkers are waiting to see how Zohran Mamdani, a brilliant messenger, handles the levers of power and who else he's bringing inside of City Hall to help him run the huge machine. While those staffing decisions are playing out, slowly and behind closed doors, the outgoing administration is taking some swipes at Mamdani, including about the mayor elect's pledge to end homeless encampment sweeps. Episode hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan and Harry Siegel, and engineered by Noah Smith.

Economist and techno-optimist Noah Smith, author of the Noahpinion Substack, joins Offline to debate the promise of artificial intelligence, the benefits of online fragmentation (could it be good for our society?) and whether liberal nationalism is feasible—and a good thing. Though Noah and Jon differ on a lot of “Offline” themes, they find common ground on the dangers of social media, leftist scolds, and a country with an identity crisis.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

“I bought myself an electric bike to take my kids to the beach and started charging it outside after seeing stats on how many battery fires there were. I looked at other countries that are doing battery-swap networks and  I said, ‘We should do this in New York… My plan, if I can be this ambitious, is to build a city-wide battery-swap network everybody can use." Ineffable and inimitable gadfly and entrepreneur Baruch Herzfeld joins LIT NYC hosts Harry Siegel and Amy Sohn to talk about schemes and dreams, the thousand-dollar bet he lost to  a Fugee but hasn't paid, the guys who climbed telephone poles when Williamsburg was wild, and much more. This episode was produced by Amy Sohn, and engineered by Noah Smith.

In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102.NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.-Timestamps:00:00 Introduction05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities28:10 – Sponsor: Found41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro-Listen to the Sphere Podcast:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ-FOLLOW on X:Pascal - https://x.com/pegobry_enNoah - https://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It turns out that the count of our mayors has been off by one, dating back to when the city had a population of just 2,500 — meaning the mayor-elect will be New York's 112th mayor, though still the 111th person to serve. FAQ NYC hosts Christina Greer, Katie Honan and Harry Siegel discuss that breaking 17th Century news, as reported by Eliabeth Kim at Gothamist, and much more, including Julie Menin's early Speaker win and the World Trade Center-related death this week of a retired deputy chief who lost a son on 9/11. This episode was engineered by Noah Smith.

Are theater kids Zohran Mamdani and Donald Trump having a bromance now, and did Jessica Tisch help bring them together? Is anyone not running for Congress? The FAQ NYC hosts discuss all that and much more before having an in-depth conversation with Crystal Hudson, the Brooklyn City Councilmember who's one of the leading candidates to be the body's next speaker in the first of a series of interviews with the contenders . This episode was engineered by Noah Smith

Today Razib talks to Noah Smith, an American economist-turned-blogger known for his commentary on economics and public policy. His blog, Noahpinion, is one of the most popular on Substack. He earned a PhD in economics at University of Michigan and served as an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook  University before leaving academia to become a full-time writer. He wrote a column for Bloomberg until 2021, when he turned his focus entirely to independent writing and his Substack newsletter. Smith is based out of San Francisco but spends part of the year in Japan. An enthusiast for Japanese culture, he is also one of the central nodes in English-speaking rabbit-twitter. First, Razib and Smith talk about the current cultural and political situation in Japan. In particular, how did Japan transform itself from a country with non immigration to one with a non-trivial number of migrants? Additionally, Razib asks Smith about the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, the first woman in that role. Smith elucidates her relationship to the politics of two of her most prominent predecessors, Shinzo Abe and Junichiro Koizumi. Razib also asks, is she as far right as some people are saying? Then Smith and Razib discuss the "vibe shift" in American culture over the last five years, from the peak period of wokeness around 2020, to the current political ascendancy of MAGA and how Democrats are reconfiguring their politics.

Is anyone in this town not running for Congress? Is it time for Democrats to finally usher an older generation out of Washington, and is there a way to build a party whose representatives are better distributed in terms of age, identity and geographic distribution? Is it time to finally feel hopeful about New York City's future? All that and more gets mulled over by hosts Christina Greer and Harry Siegel. This episode was engineered by Noah Smith.

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102⁠NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102⁠AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivityAI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:Like farming, solar power, and airlinesCode-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoptionVertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining tractionChina controls the majority of rare earth mining and refiningThe US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:Regulatory barriers to miningLack of solvent extraction technology and know-howChina's fertility rate is lower than Japan and EuropeHowever, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term-Timestamps:00:00 — Intro00:52 — AI's impact on productivity02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity's impact on productivity, lessons for AI07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges32:20 — Sponsor: Found33:33 — China's demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation54:06 — Recommendations for China's economic policy, rationalizing the economy-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

With the mayor's race decided and 2026 election moves just beginning, the FAQ NYC hosts talk about the Council Speaker's race that drew lots of attention at Somos, where Gov. Kathy Hochul got hit with another chant of "tax the rich!" There are only 51 votes that count in a closed-door campaign where the narrative question is whether the Council wants to speed up, or slow down, a Mayor Mamdani and his agenda next year. It's a contest that he's yet to publicly weigh in on. The practical question, though, is simply which candidate in a race — where the frontrunners appear to be Crystal Hudson and Julie Menin — can get enough votes to claim the big prize, and the nice office. This episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan and Harry Siegel, and engineered by Noah Smith.

In our final episode, we talk about the future of New York City under Mayor Elect Zohran Mamdani and who he will surround himself with to help him accomplish his vision. We're also joined by Patrick Gaspard, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, former key Obama aide and now key advisor to Mamdani, to talk about this historic moment. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

In our final episode, we talk about the future of New York City under Mayor Elect Zohran Mamdani and who he will surround himself with to help him accomplish his vision. We're also joined by Patrick Gaspard, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, former key Obama aide and now key advisor to Mamdani, to talk about this historic moment. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

The Election Night results are in: Zohran Mamdani will be New York City's 111th Mayor. Our hosts react to Mamdani's big win over Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, with over 1 million votes out of more than 2 million cast, and discuss his rousing, defiant victory speech and what comes next. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

The Election Night results are in: Zohran Mamdani will be New York City's 111th Mayor. Our hosts react to Mamdani's big win over Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, with over 1 million votes out of more than 2 million cast, and discuss his rousing, defiant victory speech and what comes next. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

In episode six, we're focusing on affordability, housing and the related ballot proposals. We're joined by housing experts Jamie Rubin (Chief Investment Officer of Aligned Climate Capital & Chairman of the Board of NYCHA) and Alicia Glen (Founder and Managing Principle of M Squared & former Deputy Mayor for Housing and Economic Development), who share their thoughts on what the next Mayor should accomplish – and how. Remember: early voting is in full swing. Visit vote.nyc or call 1-866-VOTE-NYC to find your early and election day polling sites — they may be different — and see what will be on your ballot. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

In episode six, we're focusing on affordability, housing and the related ballot proposals. We're joined by housing experts Jamie Rubin (Chief Investment Officer of Aligned Climate Capital & Chairman of the Board of NYCHA) and Alicia Glen (Founder and Managing Principle of M Squared & former Deputy Mayor for Housing and Economic Development), who share their thoughts on what the next Mayor should accomplish – and how. Remember: early voting is in full swing. Visit vote.nyc or call 1-866-VOTE-NYC to find your early and election day polling sites — they may be different — and see what will be on your ballot. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

In episode five, we debrief the first mayoral debate and preview the second one as Andrew Cuomo struggles to gain ground against frontrunner Zohran Mamdani with wild card Curtis Sliwa also in the mix. Plus, two-time former NYPD Commissioner Bill Bratton joins to explain why he wouldn't advise Jessica Tisch, or anyone else, to run the NYPD on Mamdani's watch. Remember: early voting begins on Saturday. Visit vote.nyc or call 1-866-VOTE-NYC to find your early and election day polling sites — they may be different — and see what will be on your ballot. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

In episode five, we debrief the first mayoral debate and preview the second one as Andrew Cuomo struggles to gain ground against frontrunner Zohran Mamdani with wild card Curtis Sliwa also in the mix. Plus, two-time former NYPD Commissioner Bill Bratton joins to explain why he wouldn't advise Jessica Tisch, or anyone else, to run the NYPD on Mamdani's watch. Remember: early voting begins on Saturday. Visit vote.nyc or call 1-866-VOTE-NYC to find your early and election day polling sites — they may be different — and see what will be on your ballot. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.–SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠–FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion–Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In episode three, we talk about the massive infrastructure cuts trickling down from the federal government – one of the many developments that have us holding our breath for what's to come in our city. We're also joined by ‘Gridlock' Sam Schwartz, who gives us the lowdown on the past, present and future of transit in New York. — FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

FAQ NYC and Max Politics are teaming up for a limited series, coming to you every Tuesday through November, featuring special guests who will help us dig into the latest in the mayor's race – and what's at stake for New Yorkers. In our second episode, the hosts debrief about Mayor Eric Adams' decision to drop his re-election bid. New York Attorney General Letitia James also joins us to talk about the cases she and Donald Trump have brought against one another, and her support of Mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani. City Hall Free For All is brought to you with generous support from Jamie Rubin and Vital City. This week's episode was hosted by Christina Greer, Katie Honan, Ben Max and Harry Siegel. Our Senior Producer is Giulia Hjort, and Noah Smith is our engineer. Our series consultants are Jess Hackel and Courtney Harrell. Music from Epidemic Sound.

Do tariffs help rebuild American manufacturing or hold it back? In this episode, American Compass founder and chief economist Oren Cass sits down with commentator and author Noah Smith and a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg for a lively debate on the future of U.S. industry. They discuss the case for tariff-driven re-industrialization versus free-market approaches, the role of allies in trade policy, and what the numbers really show about manufacturing jobs, investment, and output. Along the way, they challenge each other's assumptions and explore what it would take to actually bring more production back to American soil. Timecodes:0:00 Introduction & Framing the Debate1:27 Oren Cass: Economic Philosophy & American Compass4:02 Manufacturing, Family, and Community5:00 Free Trade, Comparative Advantage, and Policy8:30 Tariffs: US vs. China and Historical Context9:30 Do Tariffs Help US Manufacturing?15:00 Data, Indicators, and Economic Predictions22:00 Theory, History, and the Role of Economics28:00 Trade Deficits, Scale, and Global Competition38:00 Negotiation, Game Theory, and Policy Tools46:00 Trade Deficits, Scale, and Global Competition1:03:23 Negotiating with Allies and the Limits of Tariff Threats Resources: Find Oren on X: https://https://x.com/oren_cassAmerican Compass: https://americancompass.org/Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinionSubscribe to Noah's Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Noah Smith's Substack: www.noahpinion.blog Impulse Labs: www.impulselabs.comFast Company on Impulse Labs: Innovation by Design 2024: Impulse Labs' new induction cooktop is a step up from your gas stove - Fast CompanyREALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/PURCHASE BOOKS AT OUR BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail Us: realignmentpod@gmail.comSam D'Amico, Founder & CEO of Impulse Labs, and Noah Smith, author of the Noahpinion Substack, join The Realignment. Marshall, Noah, and Sam discuss how the "Electric Tech Stack," a combination of advances in batteries, motors, power electronics, and computing, will reshape everything from kitchen appliances to warfare. They argue that electricity will increasingly "eat" the world, that China has seized the lead in the race to electrification, and make the case for a serious industrial policy.