The Heresy Financial Podcast

I have a brand-new podcast starting October 12th - Financial Heresy! This podcast will be retired and I will be launching my new podcast with iHeartRadio October 12th. Financial Heresy will be all new episodes with unique content, not repurposed from YouTube. Looking forward to seeing you there! Find Financial Heresy on iHeartRadio or anywhere you get your podcasts. 

Precious metals are going absolutely crazy right now with gold being up about 4% just in the last few days and silver being up almost 10% over the same time frame. This comes as a reversal of a recent bear market in precious metals, especially as central banks around the world have been tightening. But the question is, when do these bear markets end, when will central banks on average around the world pivot and start to ease again and then what's the best way to profit off of this new gold bull market?

It's commonly said that money is made during bull markets, but fortunes are made during bear markets. Why is that? It's because at the depths of bear markets, asset prices are at their cheapest. People have capitulated and investors, especially retail investors, individuals like you and me, have sold at the absolute worst prices have gotten out, are scared, and are willing to take subpar prices for the assets that they own. And here's the truth. There are some asset prices that are already there, and there are other prices that will be there soon. This is the time to keep your eyes open, have cash, be ready, because asset prices are getting to the point, if not already there, where we are about to see the lowest, they will be in a very long time. I'm going to give you a few tactics, strategies, tips that I'm using to watch out for when to buy and what to buy.

The United Nations just warned the Federal Reserve to stop raising rates, to pivot before it is too late. They are saying that advanced economies choosing fiscal and monetary tightening are hurting the most vulnerable economies. And there's still time for them to stop before tipping the world into a global recession. Unfortunately, the U.N. is wrong.

I've had a ton of you point out the recent drop in the reverse repo facility to me lately on Twitter, as we can see here. The reverse repo facility had a peak of about $2.4 trillion on September 30th, and it has significantly fallen off since then. On October 4th, sitting around 2.2 trillion. A lot of people have pointed out that that may be what is contributing to the drop in yields, the rise in asset prices over the last few days as well. I'm not so sure, we're going to dive into the detail. I don't think this is the reverse repo bailout that I've been predicting on this channel for a long time. I think that's still to come. Let's get into the details.

Right now, investors and markets are both banking on a Fed pivot coming sooner than expected. This is because of major indications of economic weakness around the world, including major banks like Credit Suisse being in major trouble. Because of this, markets have been pricing in a higher likelihood of a Fed pivot coming sooner, including stock markets starting to rebound heavily and yields being down. But I'm going to point out how the market anticipating and trying to front run this Fed pivot actually makes the Fed's job of tightening easier and means they can go longer without a pivot.

There's a lot of disagreement right now about the financial position and the health of Credit Suisse and whether or not they're about to fail and start taking down other banks with them and causing more and more problems. So, I'm going to settle the debate for you and give you the answer on exactly the position that Credit Suisse is in right now and what people should be concerned about, how far things might go before somebody like a central bank steps in.

Did you know that over half of Americans are stuck in credit card debt? According to a recent poll 60% of Americans have been stuck in credit card debt for a year, or longer. Let me be very clear with you. This is not the time to be stuck in credit card debt. Not when rates are rising, when liquidity is dropping, when the economy is rolling over, headed into a deep recession. And the people who have the power to turn the lights on or off are saying we are not making things easier any time soon. We are seeking unemployment. We are seeking a recession, lower demand, higher interest rates, economic pain to stop inflation. This is not the time to be in debt.

Is the United States currently being successful at inflating its debt away? Well, it depends on who you ask. If you look at standard economics, it would say that the government can borrow money. And then when it spends that money, as long as it spends it in the right way, that's going to stimulate economic growth. And then that economic growth will result in more tax revenues, meaning that that debt paid for itself, and then some. One of the byproducts of this is that prices go up along the way. And so many people say that the government can just inflate its debt away, and that's why it chooses inflation. But we get into a problem with economies when the public debt exceeds 90% of GDP. So where is the United States and where is it in the cycle of trying to inflate its debt away since it's got a lot of debt and we've got a lot of inflation. Which one is winning?

Is anything even real anymore? Well, it turns out that increasingly the answer is no if it is an official statistic or number published by any government organization, and that is especially true of the recent jobs report. In this video, we are going to look through a few key metrics that the government and the Federal Reserve are looking at in terms of jobs and where unemployment is currently at in the United States of America. We're going to show how the situation is actually a lot worse than they think and this is especially dangerous because they're using these job numbers to continue to tighten. So, they're saying the jobs market is strong so we can still combat inflation and continue to tight when in reality, the jobs market is probably pretty weak.

Breaking news, the UK is breaking! The UK just had a major move in financial markets with number one, the Bank of England reversing course, pivoting and now committed to unlimited quantitative easing, buying up as many government bonds as needed to stop the financial crisis that was unfolding within hours centered around pension funds, invested in government debt with massive leverage. This is all tied in as well to the tax cuts that were recently posed from the government that were causing a big strain on financial markets through increased borrowing costs to the government. And I'm going to explain everything that's going on right now and what might happen next.

The Bank of International Settlements just came out with a new way to measure the market conditions for key areas of financial markets, including the U.S. Treasury market. And what this indicator is showing right now is that the volatility and the lack of liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market is now worse than it was during the great financial crisis when Lehman collapsed.

Japan is in trouble. Their yen is collapsing as they are trying to maintain yield curve control. And so, they intervened to prop up the value of the yen for the first time in decades last week. Now, it turns out that the Federal Reserve may be assisting them. As Bloomberg points out, Japan may have a pile of dollars it can tap at the Fed's reverse repurchase facility, accessible by foreign central banks. However, I think what Bloomberg is talking about here is actually the opposite of what's going on at the reverse repo facility. There is not enough evidence that Japan has any significant amount of money with the Fed. Instead, it looks like the Fed is going to have to be actively assisting Japan with dumping those Treasuries, using the opposite the repo facility, specifically the one for foreign central banks.

The price of cars especially used cars, or one of those surprise things that went up in value during 2020 and continued to go up in value during 2021. It seemed like there was a mad scramble to buy any car you could at any price, and they just went up. In fact, used cars, outperformed things like Bitcoin, gold, stocks, and real estate. It was absolute craziness. So, the question now is, was that sustainable? Is that going to continue? And what is happening now, given the fact that many people are starting to talk about a sub-prime auto loan crisis or people are starting to be delinquent and default on their auto loans?

Interest rates have been skyrocketing recently because the Federal Reserve is not blinking in the face of struggling Americans. They're trying to crush the inflation monster regardless of how many 401ks they destroy along the way. This means that mortgage rates are going up; car loan rates are going up; credit card rates are going up. And key here, the United States government's debt interest rates are going up. But it's not as you might think, because that's making many people ask the question, how high can interest rates go before the federal government defaults and can't pay their bills? Well, the answer is really a different question. The question is not how high can interest rates go, but how long can interest rates stay high?

It's happening... maybe. Japan might have just started the global treasury liquidation. We've been talking a little bit on this channel recently about how the United States Treasury is the foundation of the entire global financial system. But what happens when you build your house on a foundation of sand? Eventually, the house comes crumbling down, and the way that starts in the financial system is by the world getting rid of Treasurys. Japan has historically been one of the largest treasury holders. They have not been buying them recently. And now, because of the problems with their currency, they've intervened to stop the collapse of their currency. And they may have just started at the beginning of the end of the current global financial system.

If you take money from the government in any form, whether that's Social Security, a pension or something else. You may very well soon not be able to receive those payments anymore if you do not sign up for the United States Central Bank Digital Currency coming soon.

The coming automation revolution will take your job. It is inevitable. It will take your jobs someday, as it will take everyone's jobs. But the flip side is it's going to make you wealthy. And I'm going to show you how.

Federal Reserve just concluded their September meeting, gave their press release, and Powell is increasingly sounding like the new Volcker. In fact, he said in the statement, “We will keep at it until the job is done, giving an echo back to Volcker, keeping at it”. Echoing the title of Paul Volcker's biography, ‘Keeping at it', and Volcker's legacy of crushing inflation in the seventies by continuously raising rates until the job was done.

The White House just released a new framework, the first comprehensive framework from the government on its recommendations for regulating cryptocurrencies and advancing the research and development of a CBDC, a (central bank digital currency). You'll want to stick around through the end of this one. It has some scary recommendations.

The United States Treasury market is supposed to be the most liquid in the world. The Treasury is supposed to be the most stable financial instrument available around the globe. Yet the next black swan event could very easily be the US Treasury going, no bid. Liquidity in the bond market could dry up so severely that there are no more buyers at any price for United States Treasuries.

What is your biggest expense in your budget? Do you think it might be food? Do you think it might be gas? Do you think it might be clothes? Well, for the average American, last year in 2021, the biggest line-item expense on their budget was taxes. Americans had to give more money to the American government than they spent on necessities like food, energy, and clothing. And here is the kicker, it was not just a little bit bigger than any one of those categories. Americans spent more on taxes than on all those categories combined. The American government is a giant tumor on the backs of middle-class Americans, and it is draining them of their resources.

If you are watching this video, you are probably one of the elite few people who understand the massive benefits that could come to this world if we were to move back to a sound money system. Some people think that looks like Bitcoin, some people think that looks like gold, other people have opinions that it looks like something else. But for the most part, most people would agree that moving to a sound money system is better than a fiat money system where the supply can expand or contract by the sole discretion of a few unelected bureaucrats. And they do so in a way that causes malinvestment, misallocation of funds, and a destruction of wealth over time. But one thing that is largely not considered is how sound money systems actively discourage investing compared to the system that we have today. And I'm going to show you why that's actually not a bad thing. It's a feature, not a bug.

Japan's not doing too hot these days. Their currency is collapsing and at the same time, they're experiencing a record spike in their trade deficit. Now, for Japan, this is a big deal. It's not like the United States where a trade deficit is just the norm and what we expect to always have every single year for decades and decades. No, in Japan, they usually have a trade surplus. So, the fact that their currency has collapsed owing as well as almost failing in their bond market by trying to peg their government bond rates in a range, their yield curve control with that also feeling and now their trade deficit spiraling out of control. Japan is not looking too good these days.

When you hear the word ‘monopoly,' what kind of image does that conjure up in your mind? For many people, when they hear the word monopoly, they think of John D. Rockefeller, the Vanderbilts, and Carnegie Steel. And they think of these titans of industry that were exploiting the populations, taking money from them by no choice of their own, and the government decided to ride in on its white horse like a knight in shining armor and introduced antitrust laws and has been enforcing them ever since to stop the existence of monopolies. Because free markets, of course, are the things that produce the monopolies, and the government is the savior to protect people from them. I am here to show you today that monopolies do not exist in free markets, and any monopolies that do exist only because of the government, not the other way around.

Bonds market liquidity is drying up very quickly here, and it could cause disruptions in the Federal Reserve's plan to drain assets off of their balance sheet. We've been hearing them talk about QT, selling assets off their balance sheet, unwinding aggressively and quickly. But all that could change if we have enough chaos start in the bond markets due to there being no liquidity. This means the Fed is left with two options on how to manage this. One of them would be using the reverse repo facility to manage this. The other one would just be to stop QT, reverse and start up QE yet again.

The August inflation numbers are out, and they came in much worse than expected. The expectations for month over month inflation were that they would move down 0.1% and in fact, they moved up 0.1%. Also, year over year, inflation came in higher than expected and it wasn't isolated to any specific category. The price increases were broad over pretty much every category. This means, coupled with some other indicators that we're going to look at, the Federal Reserve is almost guaranteed to raise rates by 0.75% next week, and there's a good chance they might actually increase their rate hikes to a 1% hike. This means much more aggressive tightening from the Fed. So, brace for impact.

Is your job safe? Well, it may not be if the Federal Reserve gets their way. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that “we need to act now forthrightly, strongly, as we have been doing, my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and will keep at it until the job is done.” What job is that? Fighting inflation. The only problem with that is that inflation may only be stopped at the cost of you losing your job. Considering that the U.S. may need a seven and a half percent unemployment rate just to curb inflation, which means that the Fed is strongly committed to fighting inflation until the job is done, which also means until your job is gone.

How much would you pay me for a dollar? Now, at first glance, this might sound like a preposterous question, but when you dive down deeper, you're really answering the question of fundamental analysis. It's how to determine the value of something. Because if I ask you, “hey, how much would you pay me for a dollar?” your questions should be in response. When will I get the dollar? What is the likelihood that I will get that dollar? Will I get that dollar more than once over a period of time? Do I get that dollar immediately plus interest? What is the likelihood that that dollar will stick around? There are tons of questions about this. Now, again, it might sound ridiculous asking how much you'd pay for a dollar. But if I asked you, how much would you pay for ten ounces of silver? Well, suddenly that question doesn't sound as ridiculous, because if you've ever bought silver, the prices for ten ounces or one ounce of silver can vary and go all over the map. Right now, the spot price of silver is about $18, but this one ounce coin of silver costs about $35. But this ten ounce brick of silver only costs about $25. So, if I ask you, “how much would you pay for something?” the answer is not exactly clear. And to arrive at the correct answer, you have to do a little bit of fundamental analysis to understand the question, “How much are you paying for? How much is something worth?” What is the value that you are buying? And so, in this video, we are going to look at the proper way to buy silver right now, because premiums are so ridiculous, and how you can accumulate more silver over time without actually having to pay more money just by playing the premiums. And a sneak peek at how to buy silver below the current spot price.

Do you know what a central bank digital currency is or how a CBDC might actually work? Plenty of people are talking about CBDCs today, but most people do not understand how it's actually different from money today. Because as we look around and we make our payments, we get our paychecks, and we send money, it is all digital anyway. So, what is the difference between today's money and a central bank digital currency, and why is it that I always say that a CBDC is a tyrant's wet dream?

Are you aware there is currently a global energy crisis? Of course you are. It's almost anything anybody can talk about, especially if you live somewhere like Europe, where the power firms are currently going through margin calls, meaning about one and a half trillion euros. Or if you live somewhere like California, where Governor Newsom just recently told Californians to turn up their thermostats to 78 degrees and not use major appliances during the middle of the day because otherwise, they risk massive blackouts. Or if you live in Germany, where they're currently keeping nuclear power plants online and starting to burn coal because of the depth of their energy crisis, this is because, over the last few decades, fossil fuels have slowly but surely become insufficient for our energy needs, while renewable sources of energy like wind and solar are completely unreliable. And finally, energy sources like nuclear have been so underdeveloped that they're nowhere near large enough to support our current energy needs. So why has this happened over the last few decades? Well, it's not because of de-globalization, and it's not because of globalization, and it's not because of climate change, and it's not because of war. The real cause, the root cause is fiat currency. That's right. When you trace these things back to the root, fiat currency is the source of the current global energy crisis. And I'm going to prove to you how.

Do you know what the Bible actually says about wealth? Most people are not aware that the Bible talks about wealth, and they think that if it does mention it, it's negatively saying, “hey, you're just supposed to give it all away”. In fact, this is not true. The reality is that the Bible mentions money more than literally any other word in the entire Bible. And so, if you are interested in what one of the oldest texts that people have looked to for wisdom for thousands of years has to say about wealth. Stick around.

If you are like most Americans, you are probably still feeling the pain at the gas pump. But not just because of that is because you're also feeling the pain when you go to the grocery store, you fill up your grocery cart with all the same groceries that you normally get, but it's costing you a lot more than it did last month and the month before, the month before that. And it has been about a year and a half to two years now of continuous price increases in all the stuff that everybody needs to buy. However, the dollar has been getting a lot stronger over the past year, it has gone up about 24%. This means that compared to other currencies, the United States dollar is doing extremely well. And on top of that, the fact that we import $3.4 trillion worth of stuff from other countries, leaving us with a deficit of 676 billion. We are currently exporting a lot of our inflation to other countries, and it is only a matter of time before this results in a sovereign debt crisis.

Did you know that the United States has not always had a central bank? In fact, the Federal Reserve was not started until 1914. Within just a few years of the Fed starting, we had a recession that was called the Great Depression in 1921. And just seven years after that, we had another one that since then is now called the Great Depression, because it was even worse than the first one. It also paid for unlimited spending that got us into two world wars, decades of military actions in countries all around the world, and all the dollars that we have exported overseas since the seventies. When we came off the gold standard have introduced hyperinflationary episodes all around the world, destabilized the global financial economy, and have brought us to the place now where we have the largest buildup of debt, the largest buildup of derivatives, the most fragile economy that this world has ever seen. The time is now to end the Fed, and I am going to show how that could be possible.

Are you ready for a central bank digital currency here in the States? Well, regardless of whether you are ready or not, the Federal Reserve has announced that next July in 2023, they will be launching the ‘Fed Now' service, which will be the infrastructure for the American CBDC!

Have you ever heard anybody blame the Federal Reserve for all the problems saying, “hey, they kept interest rates too low for too long, causing the inflation and absent the intervention rates would be much higher”. I have been very guilty of saying this myself as well. But today we're going to take a look at a little bit of a contrarian view. By taking a look back at history for a much longer period of time, 700 years. We can see that interest rates have actually been falling for 700 years. This gives some evidence that interest rates may not be artificially low right now, or at least considering the long term trend of history. Maybe approaching zero at some point in the future and stay there permanently.

Since the 1980s, the global bond market has been in a bull market. That means, on average, for the last 40 years, bond prices have been moving higher while interest rates have been going down. But that has all reversed as, over the last couple of months, things have gotten out of hand, to say the least, economically speaking, around the world, and bonds are now in their first bear market in decades.

Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed, just destroyed the arguments for a central bank digital currency. This is a huge shock to me because he's always advocated for policies that are anti-American. He was one of the key participants in orchestrating the bailout in the financial crisis. He then got a job back on Wall Street after that, (he came from Wall Street before). So, he's always been at the helm of pushing things that are good for him, good for the Treasury, good for the Fed, but not good for Americans. And this was true in 2020 as well, when he kept on pushing for more and more money, printing more and more easing, despite the fact that everybody who knew what was going on knew it was going to result in inflation, he said, "No, no, no", it won't result in inflation, but we have to give credit where credit is due because this is the last thing that I expected to come out of his mouth. He absolutely destroys the arguments for why America would ever need, or ever want a central bank digital currency. We are going to jump into why.

More shocking news for anybody who's expecting a quick bailout, a return to quantitative easing from the federal reserve. As the federal reserve just got the green light to go big from job openings. As we know, job openings are the key measure that the federal reserve is looking at to know whether they have gone too far with tightening or whether they have further to go. Because more job openings just came out than they expected, they got the green light to move faster on tightening.

Three years ago, the federal reserve started to bailout the financial system yet again (not with QE), when the repo market blew up and they started buying treasury bills to bailout the repo market. Now at the time they said this wasn't QE because they said they were only buying bills, not regular treasuries. So far, they haven't unwound back any of that bailout until this month. This month will be the first time that the federal reserve will sell back those bills to the market. So far in their tightening they haven't let any of those bills go and now they're going to start doing it. But why? Is it because they think the economy is strong enough to manage it, or because they're trying even harder to withdraw liquidity out of the system?

The American government has gone on an absolute bender recently! With the last couple of years showing trillions of dollars in deficits, (not spending) but deficits! A deficit is spending beyond the income that you have. So, we've seen 6-7 trillion dollar budgets from the government, and it has caused some of the biggest inflation this country has seen in decades, and by some measures, it could be classified as the biggest inflation we've ever seen. Now we're faced with the prospect of the federal reserve tightening to the point where we could expect job losses, bankruptcies, and market crashes, which means Americans have spent the last two years with prices going up faster than they've ever gone up in our lifetimes. On the other end those same American households are facing the prospect of losing their jobs. I always say that the federal reserve and the government right now are faced with a rock and a hard place, with hyperinflation on side and a deflationary death spiral on the other side. However, it's not as if there is no choice. In fact, one of the comments I commonly get on my YouTube videos is, "Hey, you point out a lot of things with the country and how policy is done. What's your solution?" Well, that's what this video is about, and I'm going to give you a 5-step plan that would put America on a path to global supremacy and wealth that the world has never seen before (if implemented).

Many people accept that quantitative easing, (easy monetary conditions, low interest rates, printing money) causes asset prices to go up. On the same note, they just accept that quantitative tightening and raising interest rates causes asset prices like stocks to fall. But what is the mechanism behind this? In this video I am going to explain the process very simply, how QT contributes to lower stock prices.

Well, it has finally happened. Real estate prices have officially begun to fall, posting their first month to month decline in prices in three years. That's right. Despite all the headlines you've seen about doom and gloom in the real estate market for the past two years, prices have continually gone up until now from June to July, posting the first drop in prices.

Federal Reserve Jerome Powell spoke at today at Jackson Hole during their annual retreat. By the way, it is so nice for them that they get a nice retreat in Jackson Hole Wyoming every single year despite the economic hardships that other Americans are going through, good for them right!? He gave a speech that gave strong indications of the near future concerning monetary policy. If we look at directly what he said while looking in between the lines, we can see clearly what they plan to do. Bankrupting households and crashing the market!

President Biden recently announced that he is going to be forgiving or cancelling $10,000 in federal student debt, and up to $20,000 for anyone who got a Pell Grant. Now, surprisingly, a move like this is getting backlash from people on both sides of the isle. From people on the far left saying it does not go near as far enough, and people on the right saying they have no business doing this. But this may be just smoke and mirrors because the ability for the federal government to cancel or forgive student debt does not rest with the President. So, this move might actually be illegal, and the supreme court just might stop it.

The creation of the United States was one of the largest experiments on human freedom that has ever been conducted in human history. The result of this experience was an unfathomable amount of wealth creation, one of the largest periods of prosperity, growth, and human thriving that this world has ever seen. However, the conditions that led to so much prosperity by many measures are dwindling, decreasing, and downright disappearing in the United States today. This country is on the road to serfdom, but do not despair because there is something you can do about it.

The idea of a strong dollar sounds great to most people. However, when they look at their 401k accounts, they realize a strong dollar might not be all that good! So, let's look at what is happening here: Why is the dollar getting stronger right now? Why does it look like it's going to be moving even higher from here to levels that it hasn't been at for years? Why is it bad for asset prices?

We're seeing some strange things happening within the bond market with a steeply inverted yield curve on one hand, while we also have real negative interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The Fed claims they're trying to fight inflation, but we've got a whole camp of people saying we cannot fight inflation with negative real interest rates, you must be above the inflation rate before it has any effect. I'm going to show you today, something that might be a little bit surprising. That we don't need positive real interest rates to combat inflation. In fact, with negative real interest rates you can cause deflation.

Have you ever wished you could spot a bubble in real time with a high degree of accuracy? Because it is quite easy to tell after the fact, especially a few years removed. You can point back at something and say, "clearly, that was a bubble." But if it was so clear in the moment, then it would have never become a bubble because nobody would have invested in it, knowing it was a bubble from the start. And so, I am going to give you five steps that you can use to test (a litmus test) to be able to determine whether something is a bubble, or not.

Have you ever been able to use debt to increase your income? Most likely, you have been able to. However, when you scale things up and you go from an individual, to a business, to a large business, and to a country — the problems with debt financed growth become larger exponentially, not linearly. To the point where when you reach nation states, (large nations using debt to try and fuel growth) — you almost always result in massive, catastrophic consequences, which can make things much worse in the end than they were before.

Most people, including the Federal Reserve are aware that the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. With the deflationary death spiral on one side, and a hyperinflationary collapse of the currency on the other side. Where people do tend to disagree is what the Federal Reserve should do to try and thread the needle between those two things, and what they will do, not just what they should do. The other thing muddying the waters is personal preference about what people 'wish' the Fed would do. Because a lot of people disagree about the Federal Reserve easing conditions to bailout the economy. But at the same time, they're upset at the Fed for tightening conditions and potentially causing more economic pain when that's the healthier option long-term, even though it might be more painful short-term. I'm here to tell you that what is likely to happen is, the Federal Reserve is going to continue to fight inflation until they win. The problem with this is that they're going to tip the economy over into a depression, and the real problems start after that.