Podcasts about minneapolis fed

On Friday's AOA, we start the show with a look at the recent tariff news and some details on the latest fourth quarter ag credit survey for the Ninth District with Joe Mahon from the Minneapolis Fed. (View the survey here: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/farmers-limped-across-the-finish-line-at-year-end)   Then in Segment Two and Three we have our March Farmer/Rancher Roundtable with Rob Shaffer of Illinois and Jeff King of Kentucky that we recorded during the Commodity Classic in Denver earlier this week. Then we close the show in Segment Four with Scot Hermanson from Cenex who we talked to during the Commodity Classic trade show.

“Human capital” is an economic catchphrase for the collective knowledge, skills, experience and other attributes people accumulate throughout their lives. Human capital development is key to a nation's prosperity. You'll immediately grasp the meaning of the term if you spend time talking about ideas, policy and life with Art Rolnick, age 79. He's a scholar of pre-Civil War banking era; a well-known opponent of public funding for stadiums and the costly tax competition between states and localities to attract business; former long-time head of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; and, most notably, an enthusiastic advocate for early childhood human capital initiatives. MPR's senior economics contributor Chris Farrell recently met with Rolnick for our series “Connect the Dots.” We ask community elders to share part of their life story, and lessons they've learned along the way about what really matters in life.

On Monday's AOA, powered by Cenex, we take a look at the early week market action in grains and more with Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart. In Segment Two, a look at this week's precipitation chances for the Midwest and Plains and more with DTN Meteorologist, John Baranick. Next up in Segment Three, we look at the overall health of the Minneapolis Fed district ag economy for the third quarter of 2024. Joe Mahon, Regional Outreach Director for the Minneapolis Fed joins us for a conversation. Then in Segment Four, we go back to last week's NAFB Convention and hear about a new conservation partnership between National Sorghum Producers and Ducks Unlimited as NSP Chairwoman, Amy France, joined us for a conversation in Kansas City.

Marty sits down with Matt Pines to discuss how Trump may include bitcoin in his policy and the imminent advent of information on UAPs becoming public. 0:00 - Intro 1:34 - ECB and Minneapolis Fed papers 11:12 - Evolution of supranational institutions 18:16 - How US power is different 25:24 - Unchained & Coinkite 27:18 - Trump and his allies 46:20 - Zaprite & SOTE 47:53 - Measured approach to state bitcoin adoption 1:03:49 - We need lateral thinking civil servants 1:16:42 - American infrastructure in the AI arms race 1:26:07 - Positivity and getting shit done 1:32:24 - Defense VCs 1:38:39 - Conflict with China conventions of cyberwarfare 1:49:41 - UAP disclosure 2:15:57 - Layered psyops 2:27:05 - Cults and ideological institutions 2:37:10 - Access and accountability 2:45:17 - Disclosure from other nations 2:53:45 - UAP technology 3:01:12 - The risk posed by widespread doubt 3:05:48 - Conspiracies are common 3:11:53 - Wrapping up Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Coinkite https://coinkite.com/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Join Marty Bent, John Arnold and Grant Gilliam of Ten31 for the inaugural episode of Bitcoin Alpha. Ten31: https://ten31.vc/ 0:00 - Disclaimer 0:24 - Introductions 9:19 - Comparing underwriting in Bitcoin vs trad banking 13:05 - Minneapolis Fed paper 22:48 - Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller 29:54 - Ten31's unique bitcoin focus 39:25 - Bitcoin's dominance over time 56:04 - Bridge/Stripe deal 1:16:37 - Wrapping up

Join Car and Keyan to discuss Stacker News' top posts of the week, Car & Keyan's favorite posts of the week, and top stackers for the week of October 25th, 2024.Follow the conversation of the episode on SN.TimeStamps:00:06:37 - Darthcoin journey on Stacker News00:15:56 - Setting Up My First Meshtastic Radio00:22:01 - Bitcoin PSA: It's Helpful and Important to Define Terms Before We Lose Our Way00:39:37 - Minneapolis Fed's paper on banning Bitcoin to maintain "permanent deficits"00:48:49 - Last Pay Wins bounty at 210k sats this AM00:51:30 - There is no perfect set of incentives00:54:51 - ⚡PlebLab x ZBD TabConf Hackathon00:55:28 - Halloween is here, what are your top thriller movies? check mine below01:00:19 - Route Not FoundShoutout @Wumbo for tracklist. Zap'em!We love the Fountain app for Lightning 2.0 podcasting, Send us a Boost, and we will read it on the next SNL.Find Car on NostrFollow Car on SNRead Thriller BitcoinFollow Thriller on NostrFollow Thriller on Zap.StreamFollow Thriller on YouTubeContribute to ~buildersLearn more about PlebLabFollow Keyan on TwitterFollow Keyan on NostrFollow Keyan on SNFollow Stacker News on NostrLearn more about Stacker News

In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and Joe McCann are joined by Jeff Park of Bitwise to discuss some of the latest developments in the crypto world. They share their thoughts on a controversial ECB paper about Bitcoin, breaking down why they believe the authors missed the mark. They also dive into the rising institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs and how Trump's momentum in the polls could impact the market, especially for altcoins. Plus, the conversation explores the significance of Bitcoin ETF options and why they could have a larger impact than many expect. Show highlights: Why the guys believe that the ECB paper on Bitcoin is a joke How the Minneapolis Fed report said that prohibiting Bitcoin would allow the government to operate at permanent deficits  The institutional demand for spot bitcoin ETFs How Trump has been rising in the polls and what the Trump trade looks like at the moment Whether polls and Poylmarket bets on the U.S. elections are manipulated How the Fed is putting more focus on jobs than inflation When the bitcoin ETF options might launch and which issuers will get it first How memecoins succeed and the rise of AI memecoins like GOAT, fueled by the AI bot truth_terminal What the $1.1 billion acquisition by Stripe of stablecoin company Bridge means  Why Donald Trump's World Liberty Financial token sale was a flop Sponsors: Gemini Stellar  Hosts: James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard Joe McCann, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric Guest: Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Links ECB paper on bitcoin: Bitcoin Appreciation Could Be ‘Fuelling The Division Of Society' Omid Malekan's rebuttal to the paper by Bindseil & Schaaf (of the ECB) Minneapolis Fed report: Unique Implementation of Permanent Primary Deficits? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Alex Kruger's tweet on memecoins  Alex Thorn's tweet on bitcoin adjusted by inflation Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:08 Why the ECB's Bitcoin paper missed the mark 10:17 Political motivations behind the Minneapolis Fed report on Bitcoin 14:18 Rising institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs 21:38 How Trump's poll momentum could impact crypto 32:14 Are election polls and Polymarket bets manipulated? 43:36 Why the Fed is prioritizing jobs over inflation 52:37 When will Bitcoin ETF options launch? 1:01:08 What makes memecoins, including AI memecoins like GOAT, succeed? 1:13:00 The significance of Stripe's $1.1 billion crypto deal 1:18:02 Why the WLFI token sale was a “flop” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and Joe McCann are joined by Jeff Park of Bitwise to discuss some of the latest developments in the crypto world. They share their thoughts on a controversial ECB paper about Bitcoin, breaking down why they believe the authors missed the mark. They also dive into the rising institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs and how Trump's momentum in the polls could impact the market, especially for altcoins. Plus, the conversation explores the significance of Bitcoin ETF options and why they could have a larger impact than many expect. Show highlights: Why the guys believe that the ECB paper on Bitcoin is a joke How the Minneapolis Fed report said that prohibiting Bitcoin would allow the government to operate at permanent deficits  The institutional demand for spot bitcoin ETFs How Trump has been rising in the polls and what the Trump trade looks like at the moment Whether polls and Poylmarket bets on the U.S. elections are manipulated How the Fed is putting more focus on jobs than inflation When the bitcoin ETF options might launch and which issuers will get it first How memecoins succeed and the rise of AI memecoins like GOAT, fueled by the AI bot truth_terminal What the $1.1 billion acquisition by Stripe of stablecoin company Bridge means  Why Donald Trump's World Liberty Financial token sale was a flop Sponsors: Gemini Stellar  Hosts: James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard Joe McCann, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric Guest: Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Links ECB paper on bitcoin: Bitcoin Appreciation Could Be ‘Fuelling The Division Of Society' Omid Malekan's rebuttal to the paper by Bindseil & Schaaf (of the ECB) Minneapolis Fed report: Unique Implementation of Permanent Primary Deficits? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Alex Kruger's tweet on memecoins  Alex Thorn's tweet on bitcoin adjusted by inflation Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:08 Why the ECB's Bitcoin paper missed the mark 10:17 Political motivations behind the Minneapolis Fed report on Bitcoin 14:18 Rising institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs 21:38 How Trump's poll momentum could impact crypto 32:14 Are election polls and Polymarket bets manipulated? 43:36 Why the Fed is prioritizing jobs over inflation 52:37 When will Bitcoin ETF options launch? 1:01:08 What makes memecoins, including AI memecoins like GOAT, succeed? 1:13:00 The significance of Stripe's $1.1 billion crypto deal 1:18:02 Why the WLFI token sale was a “flop” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the wake of the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut last week, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari discusses whether this is “mission accomplished” on inflation and what kind of rate cuts are still coming. He also shares why one FOMC voter cast an historic dissention vote. Next, Andy Dunn, known for co-founding Bonobos, says making friends should be “as easy as calling an Uber.” He has launched a new app called Pie to help people meet new friends in real life through frequent hangouts. Plus, Speaker Johnson has offered a proposal to avoid a government shutdown, FTC Commissioner Lina Khan was on 60 Minutes, and Qualcomm is thinking of buying Intel, which would be the largest tech merger ever.  Steve Kovach - 08:51Neel Kashkari - 17:14Andy Dunn - 29:18 In this episode:Neel Kashkari, @neelkashkariAndy Dunn, @dunnBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY

Join us for today's episode as we dive into the latest and most critical real estate headlines. Over 10 million home sellers are being targeted in a massive class-action media blitz. We'll discuss what this means for the industry and those involved. EXP Realty has made a bold move by halting broker-to-broker compensation, but with some notable caveats—what's the real story? CRMLS is also in the spotlight for removing key concessions details, impacting transparency in listings. The prospective new owner of REcolorado has received a positive response, signaling potential changes ahead. Redfin's CEO describes the housing market as being in a 'funk,' with homebuyers hesitant due to election uncertainties. Are million-dollar starter homes becoming the new norm? We'll examine this growing trend. Homeowners insurance premiums surged 21% last year, with experts attributing part of the increase to climate change. High housing costs are reaching record levels, as reported by Harvard University, while luxury home prices have spiked 9% to an all-time high. In economic news, the first Fed interest rate cut in years may be on the horizon—what should homeowners and buyers expect? The Minneapolis Fed suggests that optimal inflation policy should largely ignore housing, sparking debate among economists. Despite these challenges, the typical homebuyer's monthly payment has dropped to its lowest level in four months, signaling improved affordability. Finally, we'll discuss the growing trend of investor regret as real estate purchases hit their lowest point in two years. Tune in today for all these insights and more. 

In part 2 of Jason's talk with Catherine Austin Fitts, they discuss China's approach to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which integrates CBDCs through commercial banks to avoid disrupting the existing banking system. They contrasted this with the European Central Bank's approach, which might eliminate traditional banks. Fitts expressed concerns about CBDCs' potential for government control and surveillance, emphasizing the need for privacy and financial autonomy. They also discuss the broader implications of digital currencies, inflation, and the importance of decentralized financial practices. Fitts advises maintaining strong relationships with local banks and being prepared for economic instability. #CBDC #DigitalCurrency #BankingSystem #FinancialPrivacy #ChinaCBDC #EconomicStability #Decentralization #FinancialAutonomy #SurveillanceConcerns #LocalBanks #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #FinancialControl #PrivacyRights Key Takeaways: 0:57 Video clip: Prof. Richard Werner 3:32 Video clip: Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari 5:28 What can we do to stop the CBDC 9:20 Disintermmediating investments, Bitcoin and inflation 16:03 The 2 year cycle  17:22 Bitcoin 19:41 Inflation or deflation 22:28 Action steps for our investors https://live.solari.com/   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

Jason welcomes back Catherine Austin Fits as the guest of the show, and also announces the upcoming Wednesday masterclass on Zoom, focusing on taxation and money-saving strategies. The first guest for these high-content discussions will be 'Rich Dad' author Tom Wheelwright, who wrote the book "Tax-Free Wealth." This FREE masterclass, aimed at providing deep insights and will be held on the second Wednesday of every month. Go to https://www.jasonhartman.com/wednesday to register for FREE today! And in part 2 of Jason's talk with Catherine Austin Fitts, they discuss China's approach to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which integrates CBDCs through commercial banks to avoid disrupting the existing banking system. They contrasted this with the European Central Bank's approach, which might eliminate traditional banks. Fitts expressed concerns about CBDCs' potential for government control and surveillance, emphasizing the need for privacy and financial autonomy. They also discuss the broader implications of digital currencies, inflation, and the importance of decentralized financial practices. Fitts advises maintaining strong relationships with local banks and being prepared for economic instability. #CBDC #DigitalCurrency #BankingSystem #FinancialPrivacy #ChinaCBDC #EconomicStability #Decentralization #FinancialAutonomy #SurveillanceConcerns #LocalBanks #Inflation #EconomicPolicy #FinancialControl #PrivacyRights Key Takeaways: Jason's introduction 1:27 Join our FREE Zoom Masterclass with Rich Dad author Tom Wheelwright https://www.jasonhartman.com/wednesday Catherine Austin Fitts interview part 2 3:02 Video clip: Prof. Richard Werner 5:38 Video clip: Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari 7:34 What can we do to stop the CBDC 11:26 Disintermmediating investments, Bitcoin and inflation 18:09 The 2 year cycle  19:28 Bitcoin 21:47 Inflation or deflation 24:34 Action steps for our investors https://live.solari.com/   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

New data analyzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has found that Minnesota has one of the higher shares of remote workers in the country and the highest in the Midwest. Haley Chinander is an analyst with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. She joined MPR News host Cathy Wurzer to talk about her article breaking down these new numbers. As a note, Chinander's views are her own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Minneapolis Fed or the Federal Reserve System.

Overall, inflation has plummeted since June 2022, shortly after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates, and the Fed is getting closer to its 2% target. But consumer prices are still high. So why is it taking so long for the Fed to cut interest rates? “The Federal Reserve has been faked out before, where we thought inflation was licked, and then it flared back up again,” Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, told us on today’s show. “That's what we want to avoid.” Also: What to expect when Amazon replaces Walgreens on the Dow, how congressional budget fights threaten federal firefighters' pay, and why the U.S. is selling its helium reserve.

Nvidia’s fourth quarter results blew past analysts’ expectations with a revenue of $22.1 billion. We’ll get into what sizzling hot demand for the chip maker’s products says about the larger generative AI boom. And, we’ll discuss the threat AI-generated misinformation poses to the 2024 election, and what states are doing to combat it. Plus, experiencing sticker shock at the grocery store lately? Kellogg suggests trying cereal for dinner. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Nvidia Sales Reach New Heights as Company Forecasts Bigger AI Boom” from The Wall Street Journal “Authorities target two Texas firms in probe of AI-generated robocalls before New Hampshire’s primary” from AP News “After the chaos of 2020, states are preparing for election challenges — and threats” from “Marketplace” “‘I think our fear of high inflation is well warranted,’” Minneapolis Fed president says” from “Marketplace” “WK Kellogg CEO Gary Pilnick: ‘Cereal for dinner’ is trending for consumers under price pressure” from CNBC “It's Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income” from The Wall Street Journal Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We'll have news, drinks, a game and more.

Nvidia’s fourth quarter results blew past analysts’ expectations with a revenue of $22.1 billion. We’ll get into what sizzling hot demand for the chip maker’s products says about the larger generative AI boom. And, we’ll discuss the threat AI-generated misinformation poses to the 2024 election, and what states are doing to combat it. Plus, experiencing sticker shock at the grocery store lately? Kellogg suggests trying cereal for dinner. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Nvidia Sales Reach New Heights as Company Forecasts Bigger AI Boom” from The Wall Street Journal “Authorities target two Texas firms in probe of AI-generated robocalls before New Hampshire’s primary” from AP News “After the chaos of 2020, states are preparing for election challenges — and threats” from “Marketplace” “‘I think our fear of high inflation is well warranted,’” Minneapolis Fed president says” from “Marketplace” “WK Kellogg CEO Gary Pilnick: ‘Cereal for dinner’ is trending for consumers under price pressure” from CNBC “It's Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income” from The Wall Street Journal Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We'll have news, drinks, a game and more.

Nvidia’s fourth quarter results blew past analysts’ expectations with a revenue of $22.1 billion. We’ll get into what sizzling hot demand for the chip maker’s products says about the larger generative AI boom. And, we’ll discuss the threat AI-generated misinformation poses to the 2024 election, and what states are doing to combat it. Plus, experiencing sticker shock at the grocery store lately? Kellogg suggests trying cereal for dinner. Here’s everything we talked about today: “Nvidia Sales Reach New Heights as Company Forecasts Bigger AI Boom” from The Wall Street Journal “Authorities target two Texas firms in probe of AI-generated robocalls before New Hampshire’s primary” from AP News “After the chaos of 2020, states are preparing for election challenges — and threats” from “Marketplace” “‘I think our fear of high inflation is well warranted,’” Minneapolis Fed president says” from “Marketplace” “WK Kellogg CEO Gary Pilnick: ‘Cereal for dinner’ is trending for consumers under price pressure” from CNBC “It's Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income” from The Wall Street Journal Join us tomorrow for Economics on Tap! The YouTube livestream starts at 3:30 p.m. Pacific time, 6:30 p.m. Eastern. We'll have news, drinks, a game and more.

Overall, inflation has plummeted since June 2022, shortly after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates, and the Fed is getting closer to its 2% target. But consumer prices are still high. So why is it taking so long for the Fed to cut interest rates? “The Federal Reserve has been faked out before, where we thought inflation was licked, and then it flared back up again,” Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, told us on today’s show. “That's what we want to avoid.” Also: What to expect when Amazon replaces Walgreens on the Dow, how congressional budget fights threaten federal firefighters' pay, and why the U.S. is selling its helium reserve.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says policymakers have yet to win the fight against inflation, and that they will consider more tightening if needed. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research US Economic Research Head, says a rebalanced labor market could led to a rate cut. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, expects more potential buying for treasuries in the short-term. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor-In-Chief, previews the off-year elections happening across several US states. Nadia Martin Wiggen, Svelland Capital Director, discusses the global oil market as prices fall to over two-month lows. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa A. Bromoids, along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrow, join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This morning, Mike McKay Drumrow, fantastic guests the random type with us to talk about Fed policy. Yes, and thank you very much, John, because we are pleased to welcome Neil Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, to the table today. Thank you for coming in making the trip all the way to New York only for us. I'm sure nothing else There would be nothing else this morning, and except for Bloomberg Surveillance. You're kind of known as the guy who is the most hawkish. I don't want to characterize you exactly now, given how things have changed over the last couple of months, but you have left open the possibility of doing more. How much more would you think the economy might need? Are we talking about just that one leftover move from the dot plot in September, or if you have to start raising again, do you have to go farther. Probably. Well, first of all, it's great to see you, Thanks for having me. People are looking for certainty, and I wish I could give that certainty provided there's been so much, so much it's unusual about the reopening of the economy and the dynamics that led to the high inflation, and how long it has taken, and the dynamics as the disinflation process has taken hold. I wish I knew. We have to let the inflation data guide US, the labor market data guide US, just to point out the obvious. Our forecasts have not been great over the past couple of years, and so we just need to We're all committed. Everybody on the FORMC has committed that two percent is our inflation target. We have to get inflation back down to two percent over a reasonable period of time. Ultimately, the economy will tell us how much is needed to get there, And I just don't know. Well, at what point do you think you would believe you have tightened enough or not tightened enough? What is it that you're looking for. Well, I'll give you some good news is that core PC on a three month basis is running about two point five percent, and it's lower than the six month data. It's lower than the one year data. So that suggests that the disinflation is real. If we continue to see inflation numbers of that range two point five percent or lower on a go forward basis, that would tell me, Okay, we are now on a path back to two percent inflation. But three months data is still only three months data, and if we see that start to tick back up again, that would tell me our job is not yet done. Tick back up means what? In other words, we get another couple of CPI reports in a PCE report before your next meeting, a couple of tents higher. The chairman and others say it's going to be lumpy or does it have to be a significant move? In other words, what are you thinking about for December? Well, I think we could look at, as the chairman always says, we look at all of the data. So what surprises Over the past few months, We've been surprised by how strong American consumers have been. Consumer spending is held up remarkably well, we've been surprised by GDP growth. When activity continues to run this hot, that makes me question is policy as tight as we assume that it currently is. So if you saw inflation tick back up and you saw continued very strong economic activity on the real side of the economy, that would tell me, okay, we might need to do more. So it's hard for me to say this one data point needs to be here. I would be looking at the suite of data. Did we outsource doing more to financial markets? In the arts week? Have we outsourced doing more to financial markets? You know, this is a very complicated question on what has been driving the long end of the Yeld curve. Some people point to term premium, and I always joke the term premium is the economist version of dark matter. It's the residual of all the stuff we can't explain. It's not that our models are wrong, it's the dark matter is out there. So that's the term premium. And some people say, well, that's driven by fiscal If it was fiscal driving the term premium, I would have expected to see a week dollar. Usually when investors are worried about a country's fiscal position, their currency weekends our currency has been quite strong. It makes me wonder is it really fiscal driving the term premium. Another possibility is the path of policy over the next few years. That could explain both the stronger dollar and the weaker stock market going into the last meeting. Another one is that maybe the neutral rate is higher, or maybe it's a combination of all three of these. And so these are things that we're spending a lot of time trying to understand what the markets are doing. But just speaking for myself, I'm not comfortable saying which of those three it is, because which of those three it is determines what it means for policy. If it is the term premium, then it is doing some work for the FED. But if it's the neutral rate, or if it's the forward guidance of the path of policy, then we would actually have to follow through to preserve those rates. So how did this line end up in the statement? And I'll share it with that audience. The kind of financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to wound economic activity, hiring, an inflation. Where's that coming from? Oh, that's been there for a long time. I mean, that's been in there since the Silicon Valley bank episode and the banking stresses leading to some tightening of credit conditions across the economy. So I think that that's right. I, for one, don't say that that means the recent moves in the old curve. How fluid is that assessment? Can that change from month to month, meeting to mating, because some of those comments around that has inspired quite a move in this market over the last week. Well, you know, one of the things about the statements, we always have to be careful about putting things into the statement because they tend to be long lived and it's hard to pull them out of the statement because as soon as you take something out, then all of a sudden, people say, oh my gosh, they're declaring that all the banking stresses are over, as an example, and so, you know, I would look at all of the range of commentary that you get, look at what the chairman says, look at his press conference to get a read of the thought of the committee. You said that people want certainty that you can't give it to them, and I understand that, but people don't just want certainty, they also want some sort of guiding philosophy. Do you think that Fed Shir Powell has outlined some sort of guiding philosophy and where the bar is to cut rates and where the bar is to raise them further. Well, I think he's articulated very clearly that we're committed to getting back to two percent inflation. Right. There's been some chatter amongst economists that maybe we should raise the inflation target. I think he's done a great job saying that is not on the table. We're not going to do that. We're going to get inflation back to two percent, and we're going to let the data guide us. We've moved very aggressively. We've made a lot of progress on inflation. We're not done yet, meaning inflation is not back to our target, and if we need to do more, we will. There seem to be a feeling in markets that the bar to cut rates has been lowered over the past week or two weeks. Suddenly not only are we reaching a pause and have we seen a peek in the FED funds rate, but that also the Fed will cut next year, maybe surgically. Neil Dada is talking about that and he's coming up next. Do you want to push back against that? Do you think that the bar to cut is still just as high as it was. I have no idea where market participants are getting that. There's no discussion amongst me and any of my colleagues about when we're going to start preparing to cut rates. The only thing that's been talked about at all is that at some point, when inflation is well on its way back down, if we didn't back off a little bit, then real rates would be getting tighter and tighter and tighter. And that's real, but that's math. But is there enough weakness currently in the market in the economy, I should say to give you that sense at this point, look at the last GDP print. I mean, does anybody look at that and think, oh, my gosh. The economy we for the last twelve months GDP has been very strong. The labor market continues to be quite robust. Yes, the unemployment rate is ticked up to three point nine percent, but we've also seen a huge surge of labor supply, which is really positive come online. So I'm looking at this, I'm seeing consumers that are strong. My air by the way, my airplane that I came here on was one hundred percent full yesterday. It's going to be one hundred percent full today, I'm not seeing a lot of evidence that the economy is weaken Well, whether you go higher or not, you are on board for longer. And so you must have modeled out some idea of how long you would need to leave rates unchanged before you could get down to a level low enough that you could take your foot off the break a little bit. How long do you think you'll be at five point five into twenty twenty four. Well, I think it's going to depend if we continue to see inflation prints similar to the ones we've seen the last few months, you know, and we end up with a year of a year at two point five percent core inflation and it continues to trend down, that constellation would give me evidence to say, hey, we ought to look at should we start backing off just so the real policy isn't getting tighter and tighter and tighter, because we're clearly on our way back down to two percent. But again, I don't want to just point to one data series. We will be looking at the suite of data to try to get a read of where the economy is headed. Well, not just data. You talk to businesses in your district, all the time, What are they telling you now about their view of growth and hiring and pricing going forward. It's moderating. So the labor market is still tight in my district, people especially in the Dakotas, really have a hard time finding workers. But in Minnesota, it's still a tight labor market, but it's not as tight as it was six months ago. It's not as tight as it was a year ago. So that kind of maps to the national data that we're seeing of a gently cooling labor market but one that's still very very warm. Same thing with economic activity. Depending on the sector, they're saying, Hey, we feel pretty good about things. We're a little cautious about the future. Obviously, they watch the news, they read the news. There's a lot of economic anxiety that is reported on that people, you know, factor that into their own thinking and their own business planning. So I think the outlooks are still optimistic, but it's cautious optimists. Well are they still raising prices or think they need to? So it's funny there Still they still buy and large have some pricing power more than they had before pandemic, but not as much pricing power as they had six months or a year ago. Can we finish on housic sure in the space of three years, we've had record low interest rates in the highest rates in several decades. Is this housing market broken? Well? I think since the pandemic, we have structurally underbuilt the number of units that we need to meet our growing population. And that's the factor. And that's really about regulation at the local level that are creating barriers to more supply coming in. The raid environment will settle out over time, but structurally we have to actually bring a lot more supply online to meet America at the time, but it could be like twenty thirty years. I think this is the issue here. The legacy of this FMC could well be a generation of people look down to the housing market. Why do you say that there could be a generation of people with two three percent mortgages that never sound their home. Yeah, I don't know. People end up needing to move. It's funny when people don't tell their home because they're locked into a low mortgage. That's less supply, but that's also one less buyer. Most people who buy homes are leaving another home, and so that affects both the supply side and the and the demand side of That's why I set a generation look down because I'm renting and count by, so I'm not sounding anything, and that's the generation. I'm talking about that generation specifically, you concern that could be the legacy at the FORMC. Now. I think the legacy of this FMC is that we've dealt with the pandemic very aggressively. Then we were surprised by very high inflation, but then we move very aggressively to bring the inflation back down. I want to ask you about a story on the Bloomberg terminal today about all the financial CEOs from the US over in Hong Kong sounding very doer and down about the prospects for the economy. They suggest that things are pretty fragile right now, both in the economy and the markets, given everything that's going on around the world and in the shadow banking system as well as theirs. How worried are you, well, I mean, we're always worried about things that can happen all around the world. We've got teams of people looking at different scenarios around the world. Ultimately, we have to focus on what we can control, you know, geopolitics. When Hamas attacked Israel, the first thing we thought of is what's it going to do to the oil market, what's it going to do to commodity prices. Remarkably, the response so far has been muted. But that's something we're obviously paying close attention to. But the broader geopolitical issues are just so far outside of our bounds of forecasting. You know, we have a hard enough time forecasting inflation trying to forecast where geopolitics is going. We just have to focus what we can control. Oil price is dropped. I mean, that's the crazy thing about the last month. Physically, it doesn't make any sense. And this is the reason why trying to get it right is just impossible. And then trying to get the idea of a FED put and whether they're going to respond. I'm just saying people are talking about that now, so yeah, talking about it in the last few hours. Yes, it's on this program. No, always a pleasure, Thank you, Sirving Neil, Cash County, the Minneapolis FED price Alongstide Plympecks, Mi M chab No Tatsa, the head of US economic research at Renaissance Macron. Nil, good morning to you. Good morning. Let's go straight there because my IB was lighting up with messages from you. We're not thinking about tapering. Two months later, we're a long way from neutral cutting a month later. What do you think is going on within the FBC. Where do you think this is going? Well? I think I agree that it doesn't pay much to forecasts right now. It's important just to look at the data as it's coming to you, and so I do sympathize with that. But at the end of the day, I mean, the unemployment rate is up above the fed's forecast for this year, and that's the first time that's happened since March of twenty twenty two. Now you know we're in. When you're in the thick of it, it's hard to know whether that represents the start of something much more onerous or whether it's just the normalization of the labor market. But I think for the FED, I think the doves on the FMC, and remember you know President Kashkari, he tends to lean on the hawkish side of the consensus at the FED. I think for the doves, they have all the ammunition they need to basically put the hawks in a casket. Okay, I mean, I think that's the way I would think about it. I mean, you can point to the pickup in productivity and what that's done to unit labor costs. You can point to what Powell has said, right, I mean, when when central bankers use proceed carefully risk management, that's code for doing nothing. And you know, finally, I mean the employment report was probably understating payroll growth. That's my view. I mean, there's a lot of strike activity and so far, but at the end of the day, average hourly earnings are running just over three percent at an annual rate over the last several months. So I don't think the hawks on the committee frankly, can use the labor markets as a rationale to be hawkish anymore. So that is over and so I think the doves can basically say that the labor markets have been rebalanced. And if they can say that just implicitly, it means that the door is a little bit cracked open for a cut. And you know, the point I'm making to you is, you know J Powell, it wouldn't be the first time he basically, you know, flipped on a dime. I mean, we're a long way from neutral. I mean a few months later he's cutting rates, We're not even thinking about thinking about tapering or hiking, and then we're hiking and tapering basically in the same month. So you know, to me, the fact that they're not talking about it is irrelevant. It's also in their sep for next year. The question is whether these surgical cuts, what are surgical cuts? Basically a few cuts to stabilize the economy. I mean, I think the issue is is the extent to which cutting quickly translates into rapid economic stable So I mean, for as an example, I mean, let's see what happens with mortgage purchase demand. Over the next couple of weeks. We've seen mortgage rates basically come down to what like seven percent. Okay, I'm trying to wrap my head around this. Six months ago, you were talking about way more economic strength in the US economy than people had expected. Now you're talking about strategic or surgical cuts by the Federal Reserve to stabilize the economy. Are you saying that they are warranted because the economy No, I don't think that they are. Part of the tention, Lisa, is that my job isn't to tell people what I think the Fed should do. My job is to try to get into their head and figure out what they will do. I mean, if I was there, would I be I would probably be more hawkish than the consensus on the FMC. But I'm not there. Well, but does this mean that you think the consequence of surgical cuts to fortify the economy will be prolonged inflation? Yes? Okay, So then how do you sort of arrange around that sort of what is the inflation rate? How do you sort of lean into the rally that we've seen in the bond market and say, wait a second, you guys have gotten ahead of your skis based on the game theory that the FED is playing and the way that they're likely to do Searga, I don't know that the bond market's getting ahead of itself. I think the bond market is sniffing out that the distribution of risks have changed. I don't know what the FED may do next. I mean, that's what I think the bond market is doing, and I think bond market investors are right to do that, because, as I say, you know, you think about it basically three prongs, right, the labor market, inflation, and then financial conditions. If the FED can look at the labor market and say the labor markets are rebalanced. Okay, that's check done. You can't use that anymore as a reason to be hawkish. So, if anything, if the unemployment rate's not going up a little bit, the distribution of risks are that they would cut because the labor markets. And right, if the labor markets are thawing, that's going to give them increased confidence that inflation will thaw and so and then finally, if that's the case, they're not going to be particularly concerned about the easing and financial conditions that you've seen since the last in the last week, which is what we've been talking about through this morning, whether they are going to tolerate the easing we've seen over the last week. And it feels like perhaps they will help me work with me here. It feels like to me that you believe the world might have changed post pandemic versus pre pandemic. Do you sense that they still believe were still in the same old world pre pandemic? I do. I mean, I mean, if you listen to someone like New York Fed President John Williams, even Chair Powell, I mean, there's not much there's quite a bit of reluctance to just say that, you know, neutral rates are higher. I mean, why do you think that, is, Neil? You know, I don't know. I mean I think that maybe in their minds things haven't changed. I mean all, I mean, you saw Powell talk about this at at the press conference last week. I mean, oh, well, if we get to pick up in potential growth, it's a temporary pick up and potential growth, then we'll go back down. So if you don't think that the world has fundamentally changed, then you're going to be more sort of cognizant of overtightening risk. Right Like, So if the unemployment rate is starting to go up, you may have thought, well, maybe you overdid it, so you might be more willing to cut sooner as a result. So are you more bullish on the US economy but also expect inflation to remain higher and the FED When people look back, this will be considered a policy air that they weren't hawkish enough. Yeah, I mean I think that that would be Yeah, I mean that would be something I could be saying in twenty twenty five. What would you point to if you had this conversation right now? And I would love to get you around the table next time I have a FED official to work through somebody's issues. But what would you it sounds dangerous as the number one thing that indicates to you that the world has changed, versus pandemic that ultimately they don't believe it. What would you point to, Well, I mean the first is just look at let's look at the obvious. I mean, you've done a lot, and yet the economy is still kind of hanging in there. I would say that things like household formation rates are running twice the rate they did after the Financial crisis. I mean, to me, I think it's much easier to tell the story about why the post financial crisis period was actually the anomaly than not. So I think we're actually going back to the old normal more so than anything else. Obviously, you think about all those people during the financial crisis period or the years after that, we're saving up for retirement. A lot of them have now since retired and they're now dissaving, which is you know, implies higher neutral rates. You think about income inequality, it was something that we were talking about all throughout the twenty tens. Well, it's coming down now. People at the lower end of the wage spectrum. We're seeing more rapid growth in their wages. You see more increased sort of union activity and unions getting big wins for blue collar workers. I mean, these are not things. I mean, and those folks have a much higher propensity to spend. And so I think it's it's not right in my view to say that things haven't changed. But if that's what the FED believes, then you have to be recognizing what that implies for what they might do later. And so I think just because they're not talking about cuts now does not mean they won't be talking about cuts in three six months. That should be in the realm of possibility, and I think the market's Frankly, I'm not willing to fight the move yet. I mean, okay, no a clinic as always. You know you're one of my favors. I think everyone knows that. No data, every nice loose Macro, No, thank you joining guess now. Katy Kaminski, chief research strategist over Alpha Simplex. Katie, it's the number one question for us. Are you still short treasuries? Yes? Why? Well, this is because for trend falling, it's not just about a couple of days, It's really about persistent trends in the market, and I just want to point out, and this is something interesting, trend falling signals have been net short for nine quarters. This is the first time in many decades that this has been the case. And so the reason I'm pausing right now is because we've been saying short, short, short all year, and for the first time, it's starting to feel like we already got that short come through. What's next? What does the market do now? Buy are coming in because yields are at interesting levels. They're probably thinking, maybe we've finally hit that point. Do you think something changed fundamentally to lead to that in the last few weeks. I do, And then I think that the data has come out to support the narrative for investors. But I also think a narrative that has made sense to me is that investors have woken up to the idea that five percent yields at some point there's a buying point where you think, well, there's a chance this could actually go down. And now you start to see this equilibrium occur where you're seeing the disinverted curve, which is something we've been looking for since the beginning of the year. So Katie just to put a bow on this, are you now not short treasuries and actually starting to see value, particularly if yields get up to that five percent level in the tenure. So we're still short in terms of the overall frequency that we see signals, but we are seeing consolidation in those signals, so there's a reduction in that particular conviction. But what I will say is that I'm seeing more and more positive signals on higher frequency, and so I think on the shorter term you're going to see more and more potential buying for treasuries. But I do want to remind everyone inflation is still an issue. Rates could be higher for longer, so there's still really a good chance that we're going to see a lot of volatility instead of a new trend per se that starts to emerge. Yet this raises this question of which particular data points are going to be the real action drivers, like what we saw over the past ten days. Is it going to be basically every inflation read that we get, or do you really buy into this idea that it's treasury supply that's been dictating a lot of the volumes and a lot of the angst that we felt over the past month. It's really interesting that you bring this up, Lisa, because we've been talking about the supply issue. I mean, how often do people actually talk about supply. They're only talking about it because I think people are trying to understand the equilibrium of where people sit and what yield should cost, I mean, what should be the right yield. And I think from our side on the technical side, what we're looking for is potential breakouts so that we're seeing a steeper curve at some point. Our view is it's going to depend on really what happens with the economic data of whether we end up with tighter conditions or if we actually see something very extreme where we actually saw higher yields. Again, that to me seems very unlikely right now, but I think it's really a point to start watching every data point to see which direction the yield market is going to go or which direction the yields go, because it's definitely an inflection point than Katie, were going to catch up with Nil Kashgari in about twenty minutes time. I think we're all looking forward to this conversation. There is this second paragraph in the statement that they put out last week on kind of financial conditions it reaches follows. I'm sure you're familiar with it. Time of financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Could you still write that same sentence today? After the move we've seen in the last week, what's that on the movement we've seen in the last month, for the the last six months, what do you think it is? Well? I think the challenge is that these numbers come in at different frequencies. Last week we had a massive buying but this could also be somewhat of a relief rally given how much movement we've seen downward, especially in equities. And let's just be honest, like I said, at a five percent yield started to get exciting, people said, oh I better get in there. So I think there's really still This could just be the tip of the beginning of understanding how serious financial conditions have changed, and if it's enough to actually warrant a point where we might actually have cuts at some point earlier than some would would have thought, like myself, who's been very pessimistic about rate cuts. Hey, Ketty, do you have a decent understanding of the conditions that would lead to those cuts. Well, usually in terms of this, I think we'd have to see pretty severe deterioration in financial conditions to see rate cuts, given the mandate of the FED and the fact that the other factors that are really focused on have not come down to their target level. So the fact that inflation is sticky, and the fact that we have a strong workforce and that we have all of these conditions putting us in a good place. They have been pretty clear that they're going to keep us higher for longer until we can sort that out. On the other hand, if we had some sort of very severe draw down or deterioration and credit that was clear, I think that they would have to act. So that to me would be the situation where we would see those rate cuts. Is if you saw something in the credits markets or something in terms of consumers really struggling that would cause them to actually react. So the FED put still exists, just at a much higher pain point, I would say probably yes. I mean, I think it always exists somewhere, but it's definitely moved a lot compared to what we liked in twenty nineteen and before. Kelly Let's finish what we started. Given the uncertainty you now have about your position, why maintain the shot? That's what I'm going to walk away from this conversation scratching my head about why maintain the short when it can be as expensive as it was on weeks last week. So this is the point of trend falling. Systematic trading is about not double sort of using your emotion in the moment. And I think what works with trend falling is following the data, and we just need more data to know the answer, and over longer periods of time, it turns out the market is actually quite good at giving us indications of where things are moving, and it's particularly short term movements where they disagree. Where you want to lean on your own gut, but you shouldn't, because that's what systematic trading is really about. It's about measuring and falling the markets and allowing the markets to tell you what the market where we're going, as opposed to sort of my own personal view. Unfortunately, Katie, thanks for the clarity on that point. I appreciate it. Katie commenced you that of aphasimplex, two major political parties remain unpopular in the United States, fifty six percent of Americans viewing the Republican Party unfavorably, fifty eight percent saying the same thing of the Democratic Party. Mohammed Junis, the editor in chief at Gallop, joined us now, Muhammad, help us out. I've been rinting through this piece. Neither party is well liked. You guys have pointed out that the GP has an edge on certain issues. Can we just talk about the likability of both parties right now, Muhammed? How unusual is this? Unfortunately, you know at harkens to your Amtrak conversation earlier. We're at a state right now in the United States when both parties are really not doing that great in terms of their favorability. It's nothing new, Unfortunately, It's been quite a while since Americans had a favorable view of either party in the majority. We're also at a time where there's a record high of Americans saying that they'd like to see a third party in American politics. Of course, easy to say I want more. It doesn't necessarily mean that that party would exist or actually be powerful. But we're also at a time, John and Lisa where there's a high of people that identify as independents, and that is important not only in the current moment, but also in our analysis over generations. What we find is that younger Americans today are actually sticking with that independent id much further along their lifespan than previous generations young folks. So, certainly America is highly dissatisfied with national government. We've talked about that a lot. They're really, in some ways most dissatisfied with both parties. That being said, today is a local election. It's really, I know, it's so tempting for us to jump to twenty twenty four. Americans line up today to vote on local issues, and there's a huge difference in the way people perceive local government versus the national government here in the United States. SOMEHOWMA just explain that a little bit more. What is the big difference between the two currently? Basically and coetence. Americans have very low trust and competence in the national government and national institutions. Perceptions of corruption are astronomically high. When you come to local government, though, people have a much more positive perspective on local government, whether it's the efficacy, transparency of local government and corruption, but also how they feel about their local governing officials. So Americans light up at the ballot box today, they're hearing a lot of echo chamber on the national what this means, we're twenty twenty four, but really what they're going to be focusing on our local issues, and the national conversation certainly will inform that. That's why things like abortion, things that implicate attitudes about big and small government, for example, they're on the ballot box. They will be discussed. They're going to be they have been a focus of the campaign. We know in Ohio there's a really big push on abortion. It'll be a really important weather vane in terms of whether or not Roe v. Wades overturning has sort of faded, The impact of that has faded or is still with us. I have to say, as you're talking about local elections and how different they are than the nationals, I think, well, they're probably not on TikTok, the local elections, they're probably not on Facebook. How much is it the social media echo chamber that polarizes people and gives them a worse and expected view of national politics in a way that local politics might be slightly immune. I think that's a great point. Lisa it's much easier to sort of check the bs if you will. On a topic or an issue. When it's about where you live, you know that reality. You have direct information from people you know where you live. You can talk to your neighbors, you can talk to your local religious leaders or community leaders. With national politics, it's a very different thing. It really tends to have now become sort of a war of the propaganda's if you owe both parties where truth is very hard to identify, but both sides are absolutely out there to religiously convict you excuse me, to religiously convert you to their worldview. So that's certainly a factor. But look, when it comes to twenty twenty four, and it's important for us to keep our eye on that mark. Everything that we've done with regards to national elections really comes down to one thing. Americans focus on the economy. The economy is king. It's not only king, it's king, queen and bishop when it comes to picking a president here in the United States. And that's going to be a huge factor in where people place their votes in November twenty twenty four. But as you all know, we are light years ahead from where that is in terms of assessing where the economy is going to be then, and that's going to be the major factor when it comes to party advantages. The Republicans definitely have maintained their historic advantage in terms of Americans viewing them as more competent in keeping the country prosperous, keeping the economy booming, and keeping the country safe. That's said, how much are you looking to Glenn Youngkin today? And maybe there is going to be very much local issues that are decided, but the local issues have implications for their glens might be the Republican con candidate for presidency. Do you think that's a stretch. I think looking at the polls right now, that is a stretch. It's hard to argue that President Trump is not the front runner of the Republican Party. You know, every poll you do, every poll, what we've done. We don't do too many political polls anymore, but there are good polls out there. It's really hard to see somebody sort of astronomically jump ahead of him. Now that being said, we haven't had a president in modern time that's facing the legal challenges that he's facing, and that's a whole other sort of curveball that's being thrown here. It's not clear exactly what his situation will be come real. Kind of rubber meets the road in terms of November twenty twenty four. But you know there are still we heard from David Axelrod this week about the Democratic side. There's still a lot of movement in this race, and I wouldn't rule out any surprises or sudden departures on either side up against the clol kid. Just to squeeze it in and finished where we started. You do mention in the piece of the GP holds advantages on certain issues. Can we just bring some life into that, Mohammad? Which issue specifically? There are really three issues In specific one is keeping the country prosperous. Republicans have a pretty sizable advantage to Democrats in terms of perceptions of keeping the country prosperous. The other one is keeping the country safe. As you know, we're now very focused on too pretty significant conflicts across the world. Hopefully that doesn't become a reality for us here in the United States, but as Americans focus more on security issues, Republicans do have that advantage in our polls. The final one is who's most competent to handle the most important problem facing the country. And what's fascinating about that question is that the most important problem facing the country, as I have said on this show many times right now, is actually poor leadership and government. So Americans identify the quality, the low quality of national le as the most important problem facing the country. So it's the most of our problem. The economy and keeping America safe fascinates in gright. To catch out Mohammed azoh Wis, He's going to say, Mohammed unus of gallop. Everyone's been pointing to oil prices. Why have they not caught up given that there is a sort of existential risk and threat that seems to be escalating every single day in the Middle East? Joining us now to help us understand what exactly to look for. Nadia Martin Wiggan, Director ats fell in Capital, Nadia, I just want to start there. What do you make of the fact that we're seeing crude traded on the NMEX blow eighty dollars a barrel again today despite what's going on in Israel and in Gaza. Hello, great to be on. I think what we saw last week is that Hezbollah and Iran for right now, they're on the sidelines, right, They don't actually want to show an escalation of the war going on in Gaza right now. So that has taken off some of the risk premium. For the last ten days, we actually see the implied volatility in the options market come down. So it's not even something that's happened just today, it's been for the last ten days that trend. I think. In addition, when that premium, that initial shock goes away, as we saw was the case with the war in Ukraine by Russia, eventually you know, the market starts to think about how to work around that. And for example, we've seen that freight rates have gone much higher, and part of that is when you look at it, it's almost like a risk balancing that, Okay, if we can't flow through the Suez and we have to go around, then let's de risk ourselves if things were to take longer. And we see that the freight market has actually priced that in as if they have to avoid the Suez, which they haven't had to do. So as a result, things have come down also in the oil market. Okay, so let's take a step back for a second. Nadia. If you're looking at freight producers, that already come up with alternate roots that avoid the suz Canal to avoid potential or the straits of our moves to avoid potential blowback from Iran. Does this mean that oil prices are actually higher than where they would be at this point if there weren't this geopolitical overhang, because it's actually being priced into the market in a material way. Yeah. If we look at what was happening to the market in oil before the October seventh attack, we could see that prices were coming off right. We had a lot of pressure on refinery margins. We had physical creed trading poorly. You know, we've had the largest overhang in the West African market that we've had in years. We had more than twenty twenty five million barrels unsold out of the November loading program. So we saw that kind of weakening and then this is where the market would like to rebalance. We saw the physical premiums come down for those grades, but the futures market has remained quite strong, and this is where we have to see that kind of reb ballancy. When we look at kind of the momentum and what is happening to pure speculative traders, you know, the CTAs and so forth. That short term momentum has been downwards, right, and that is put pressure bringing us down to where we are now in WTI, you know, just above the two hundred day moving average. If we look at that long term momentum, it's still intact for a strong market, right. So there are still those longs in the market that we've had in since before all of this started. But again, the market is preparing in case something were to happen, because you know, things had been taking along well in the Middle East and we were about to have a deal between Saudi Arabia, the US and Israel recognizing Israel, which would take off potentially a premium right, and instead we've moved in the opposite direction. How much is the US becoming the swing producer at a time where there is consolidation in the shale patch and you are seeing companies try to realize the value from their stores, basically pump the oil while it's still valued in the world. The deal of Exon, for example, buying Pioneer right, that really shows that they are focusing on the Permian right. And what interestingly Exon announced in their earnings call is that they believe that with their equipment and knowledge, they're able to bring in a total of one billion barrels of oil more out of those same assets that Pioneer was able to. So, when we think about the terminal regular production rate in the US, that goes from around fourteen and a half million barrels per day to maybe fifteen and a half million barrels per day, and the question is when do we reach that. Right August production was thirteen point one million barrels per day. It will probably take two years, but of course that depends on the short term oil price and the signals short term meaning monthly, quarterly, and the signals that that yields to shale producers in terms of activity. Right, a weaker oil price will slow that down. A strong oil price we'll speed that up. So right now, given more prices are do you expect more consolidation to be expedited currently or do you think that people are going to wait until prices go up a bit further. Well, prices are reasonably strong, right, the whole oil complex is in a good situation and making money. So when what we saw at the start of October is that demand was starting to get hit, right, we had producers selling crewed for more than one hundred dollars a barrel, and then we saw, for example, companies like India really complaining. Part of that is because Russian crudis continued to flow and we had price caps breached, right, so you were paying more than sixty dollars a barrel, maybe you were paying seventy dollars a barrel, and then on average, facing more than one hundred dollars a barrel was becoming difficult. So I think we've been in a pretty comfortable space, you know, in the eighty dollars range for everyone to make money, so it makes it ripe for consolidation and valuable resources. We don't really need things to move much higher. Do you think that all things being a well, this is going to be the range for the foreseeable future, just because of the pushes and the pulls that seem to be working in equilibrium from a technical level, yes, But of course things can suddenly change very quickly, both in the Middle East, you know, towards the negative towards a positive, so that can really shift things. And the number one thing to keep track of is that inventories were expected to draw quite steeply in the fourth quarter, and so far in October they only drew on land around three hundred thousand barrels per day. So the market is waiting for evidence that actually we have tightness led by these supply cuts and demand isn't waning, Whereas you know, on the other hand, if it continues waiting, then we could see for the falls and price. Nadie Martin Wigan of Spell and Capital, thank you so much for being with us. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Blueberk dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is Bloomberg.See 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This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) increased unexpectedly last month, which has given economists doubt that the Fed is finished with their current monetary tightening campaign. James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Fed, mentioned last week that he sees the need for two additional interest rate hikes to slow down inflation. On the other hand, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed indicated that the FOMC should pause its rate hikes in June but cautions that a pause may not mean a complete end to the current tightening cycle. There are still three weeks until the Fed's next meeting, and the economic climate may shift, however, there is growing belief that interest rates could still go higher. I was firmly in the camp that rates would remain unchanged for the rest of this year, but in the wake of the last PCE report, I believe there will be at least one more rate hike at some point in 2023Explore our Research webpage for more insights and resources: https://bit.ly/RadixResearch

Wages have not been a major driver of inflation thus far, and growth in pay has benefited those at the bottom of the income ladder, Minneapolis Fed economist Abigail Wozniak tells MNI.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis shared the results of its Agricultural Credit Conditions Survey for the first quarter of 2023. Joe Mahon is the regional outreach director for the Minneapolis Fed. Agricultural lenders say farmers in the Ninth District are in overall solid condition.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ben and Moe discuss China's ban of the purchase of products from American chip maker Micron, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari calling for rates over 6%, debt ceiling negotiations as the deadline looms, and some big earnings reports coming later this week. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

The FED Reserve Act of 1913 has been a dismal abomination for the United States and liberty-loving. people all over the World! It has fueled two World Wars and numerous other conflicts and enriched some of the worse elements in society, not the least of which is the military-industrial complex. The coming banking crisis will be difficult on Americans at every level of society, but if The FED is ultimately destroyed it will have been worth it. It is very critical that the citizens of this country not allow the elites to replace it with an even more sinister tool of control like CBDCs. It is incumbent on all of us to reject this impulse and demand a system that rewards our productive capacity, instead of stealing from it. Join me today as we listen to Neel Kashkari tell us the same old story about financial resiliency and strong capital positions. Don't fall for it! The end of the Dollar is coming and we need to stand strong against what's coming next! Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari tells "Face the Nation" that while not "all of the stresses are behind us, I expect this process will take some time. But fundamentally, the banking system is sound." Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari says "fundamentally, the banking system is sound" - YouTube Peter Schiff was Right! Peter Schiff mocked by Mike Norman and Ben Stein for correctly predicting the housing crash - YouTube --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/seth-martin0/message

Very quiet session from a headlines perspective as investors wait for the PCE inflation report and the quarter to end tomorrow. Equities showed some resiliency with the S&P back above 4,000 points and higher in six of the last eight sessions. In addition, the Nasdaq is operating in a bull market for the first time in nearly three years. Boston Fed president Susan Collins and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari both echoed “higher-for-longer” messaging and more tightening to achieve their 2% target. Also, contributing to the layoff theme, WMG and ROKU announced plans to lay off between 4 and 6% of their workforce.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Research Director Andrea Raffo says inflation is still uncomfortably high but recent reports show signs of moderation. He also says that U.S. labor supply is a question mark this year, and global trade resilience argues against a new era of faster inflation.

What's going on in private markets? As interest rates have gone up, public markets have been marked down much more severely than assets in the private market. Will the chickens come home to roost? And, if so, when?  Gary Stern was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from March 1985 to September 2009. Stern, a native of Wisconsin, joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in January 1982 as senior vice president and director of research. Before joining the Minneapolis Fed, Stern was a partner in a New York-based economic consulting firm. Stern's prior experience includes seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Stern serves on the board of directors of FINRA, The Dolan Company, The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, Ambac Assurance Corporation, and the Council for Economic Education (CEE), where he served for a time as acting President and Chief Executive Officer. Stern is co-author of Too Big to Fail: The Hazards of Bank Bailouts, published by The Brookings Institution (2004). Stern holds an A.B. in economics from Washington University, St. Louis, and a Ph.D. in economics from Rice University, Houston. Robert Kowit began a career in investing in 1972, working in International Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange as a Senior Vice President at White Weld, Kidder Peabody, and as a Director of Midland Montagu. Moving to the buy-side in 1990, he was Senior Vice President and Head of International Fixed Income at John Hancock and then at Federated Investors until his retirement. He currently participates on committees of the International Chamber of Commerce and the International Trade and Forfaiting Association on ways to attract more financial investors to trade finance assets. Robert is a contributor to the IMF World Bank Handbook, “Developing Government Bond Markets" and key speaker at the IMF World Bank Annual General Meeting. He is also lead author of the peer-reviewed paper, “Trade Finance as a Financial Asset: Risks and Risk Management For Non-Bank Investors” and most recently a contributor to Trade Wars Are Class Wars. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

What's going on in private markets? As interest rates have gone up, public markets have been marked down much more severely than assets in the private market. Will the chickens come home to roost? And, if so, when?  Gary Stern was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from March 1985 to September 2009. Stern, a native of Wisconsin, joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in January 1982 as senior vice president and director of research. Before joining the Minneapolis Fed, Stern was a partner in a New York-based economic consulting firm. Stern's prior experience includes seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Stern serves on the board of directors of FINRA, The Dolan Company, The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, Ambac Assurance Corporation, and the Council for Economic Education (CEE), where he served for a time as acting President and Chief Executive Officer. Stern is co-author of Too Big to Fail: The Hazards of Bank Bailouts, published by The Brookings Institution (2004). Stern holds an A.B. in economics from Washington University, St. Louis, and a Ph.D. in economics from Rice University, Houston. Robert Kowit began a career in investing in 1972, working in International Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange as a Senior Vice President at White Weld, Kidder Peabody, and as a Director of Midland Montagu. Moving to the buy-side in 1990, he was Senior Vice President and Head of International Fixed Income at John Hancock and then at Federated Investors until his retirement. He currently participates on committees of the International Chamber of Commerce and the International Trade and Forfaiting Association on ways to attract more financial investors to trade finance assets. Robert is a contributor to the IMF World Bank Handbook, “Developing Government Bond Markets" and key speaker at the IMF World Bank Annual General Meeting. He is also lead author of the peer-reviewed paper, “Trade Finance as a Financial Asset: Risks and Risk Management For Non-Bank Investors” and most recently a contributor to Trade Wars Are Class Wars. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

What's going on in private markets? As interest rates have gone up, public markets have been marked down much more severely than assets in the private market. Will the chickens come home to roost? And, if so, when?  Gary Stern was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from March 1985 to September 2009. Stern, a native of Wisconsin, joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in January 1982 as senior vice president and director of research. Before joining the Minneapolis Fed, Stern was a partner in a New York-based economic consulting firm. Stern's prior experience includes seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Stern serves on the board of directors of FINRA, The Dolan Company, The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, Ambac Assurance Corporation, and the Council for Economic Education (CEE), where he served for a time as acting President and Chief Executive Officer. Stern is co-author of Too Big to Fail: The Hazards of Bank Bailouts, published by The Brookings Institution (2004). Stern holds an A.B. in economics from Washington University, St. Louis, and a Ph.D. in economics from Rice University, Houston. Robert Kowit began a career in investing in 1972, working in International Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange as a Senior Vice President at White Weld, Kidder Peabody, and as a Director of Midland Montagu. Moving to the buy-side in 1990, he was Senior Vice President and Head of International Fixed Income at John Hancock and then at Federated Investors until his retirement. He currently participates on committees of the International Chamber of Commerce and the International Trade and Forfaiting Association on ways to attract more financial investors to trade finance assets. Robert is a contributor to the IMF World Bank Handbook, “Developing Government Bond Markets" and key speaker at the IMF World Bank Annual General Meeting. He is also lead author of the peer-reviewed paper, “Trade Finance as a Financial Asset: Risks and Risk Management For Non-Bank Investors” and most recently a contributor to Trade Wars Are Class Wars. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/politics-and-polemics

What's going on in private markets? As interest rates have gone up, public markets have been marked down much more severely than assets in the private market. Will the chickens come home to roost? And, if so, when?  Gary Stern was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from March 1985 to September 2009. Stern, a native of Wisconsin, joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in January 1982 as senior vice president and director of research. Before joining the Minneapolis Fed, Stern was a partner in a New York-based economic consulting firm. Stern's prior experience includes seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Stern serves on the board of directors of FINRA, The Dolan Company, The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, Ambac Assurance Corporation, and the Council for Economic Education (CEE), where he served for a time as acting President and Chief Executive Officer. Stern is co-author of Too Big to Fail: The Hazards of Bank Bailouts, published by The Brookings Institution (2004). Stern holds an A.B. in economics from Washington University, St. Louis, and a Ph.D. in economics from Rice University, Houston. Robert Kowit began a career in investing in 1972, working in International Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange as a Senior Vice President at White Weld, Kidder Peabody, and as a Director of Midland Montagu. Moving to the buy-side in 1990, he was Senior Vice President and Head of International Fixed Income at John Hancock and then at Federated Investors until his retirement. He currently participates on committees of the International Chamber of Commerce and the International Trade and Forfaiting Association on ways to attract more financial investors to trade finance assets. Robert is a contributor to the IMF World Bank Handbook, “Developing Government Bond Markets" and key speaker at the IMF World Bank Annual General Meeting. He is also lead author of the peer-reviewed paper, “Trade Finance as a Financial Asset: Risks and Risk Management For Non-Bank Investors” and most recently a contributor to Trade Wars Are Class Wars. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What's going on in private markets? As interest rates have gone up, public markets have been marked down much more severely than assets in the private market. Will the chickens come home to roost? And, if so, when?  Gary Stern was president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from March 1985 to September 2009. Stern, a native of Wisconsin, joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in January 1982 as senior vice president and director of research. Before joining the Minneapolis Fed, Stern was a partner in a New York-based economic consulting firm. Stern's prior experience includes seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Stern serves on the board of directors of FINRA, The Dolan Company, The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, Ambac Assurance Corporation, and the Council for Economic Education (CEE), where he served for a time as acting President and Chief Executive Officer. Stern is co-author of Too Big to Fail: The Hazards of Bank Bailouts, published by The Brookings Institution (2004). Stern holds an A.B. in economics from Washington University, St. Louis, and a Ph.D. in economics from Rice University, Houston. Robert Kowit began a career in investing in 1972, working in International Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange as a Senior Vice President at White Weld, Kidder Peabody, and as a Director of Midland Montagu. Moving to the buy-side in 1990, he was Senior Vice President and Head of International Fixed Income at John Hancock and then at Federated Investors until his retirement. He currently participates on committees of the International Chamber of Commerce and the International Trade and Forfaiting Association on ways to attract more financial investors to trade finance assets. Robert is a contributor to the IMF World Bank Handbook, “Developing Government Bond Markets" and key speaker at the IMF World Bank Annual General Meeting. He is also lead author of the peer-reviewed paper, “Trade Finance as a Financial Asset: Risks and Risk Management For Non-Bank Investors” and most recently a contributor to Trade Wars Are Class Wars. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/finance

Minnesota Law Weekly | Ep. 13 Subscribe: https://umlc.buzzsprout.com/

The Federal Reserve knows raising interest rates disproportionately hurts Black people. It just doesn't have any better tools, says the Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari. This episode was produced by Miles Bryan, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Efim Shapiro, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed, just destroyed the arguments for a central bank digital currency. This is a huge shock to me because he's always advocated for policies that are anti-American. He was one of the key participants in orchestrating the bailout in the financial crisis. He then got a job back on Wall Street after that, (he came from Wall Street before). So, he's always been at the helm of pushing things that are good for him, good for the Treasury, good for the Fed, but not good for Americans. And this was true in 2020 as well, when he kept on pushing for more and more money, printing more and more easing, despite the fact that everybody who knew what was going on knew it was going to result in inflation, he said, "No, no, no", it won't result in inflation, but we have to give credit where credit is due because this is the last thing that I expected to come out of his mouth. He absolutely destroys the arguments for why America would ever need, or ever want a central bank digital currency. We are going to jump into why.

At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave a hawkish speech intended to leave no ambiguity about the Fed's commitment to defeating inflation. But what does that mean in practice? How aggressively will the Fed have to hike? And how much pain will the economy endure as a result of it? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Fed. He explains his thinking and why he's become one of the most hawkish officials at the central bank. We also discuss the future of the Fed's decision making framework, the impact of student loan relief, the market and much more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom and Andy talk about the Minnesota Fed Banker's recent comments, the strife caused by a Minneapolis homeless camp, and the reaction to Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news equity markets are gripped by stagflation fears today, with substantial sell-offs underway worldwide, especially for tech firms.An article by the Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari didn't help, suggesting a recession may be necessary to kill off inflation.In the US, inflation expectations have fallen from record highs in data released overnight, but remain very elevated. For the year ahead they fell to 6.3% in April from a record high of 6.6% in March mainly because consumers see the price of fuel falling. They see house prices rising +6% and incomes up +3%. Three-year-ahead inflation expectations rose slightly to 3.9%.Meanwhile, American wholesale inventory levels rose only a marginal +2.3% in price terms in March, confirming they remain very low in volume terms. More crucially, the inventory-to-sales ratio remains at cycle lows, showing there is no buildup usually associated with a looming recession.In Canada overall building permit levels fell in March after a very strong February, mainly due to the non-residential sector and an absence of public projects in the month. But residential permit levels remained strong, rising almost +5%.Exports from China rose by just +3.9% in April from a year earlier but beating market forecasts of +3.2% rise - and moderating sharply from an almost +15% rise in March. The latest data marked the slowest increase in shipments in nearly two years, as tighter COVID-19 curbs halted factory production and caused congestion at key ports. Sales increased to the US (+9.4%), the ASEAN countries (+7.6%), and the EU (+7.9%) but were worryingly weak elsewhere. China's imports didn't grow at all, emphasising the domestic stall underway there. Iron ore imports fell -7%, although oil imports were stable ('resilient'). It was a second consecutive month of zero import growth.In contrast, Taiwanese exports rose +19% and imports rose +27% year-on-year in April, continuing their very healthy trade activity. April was only edged out as a record month by a couple of other recent months.In the Philippines, the son of dictator Ferdinand Marcos is headed for a landslide win. He is from a family has been synonymous with kleptocracy for decades and is on the hunt to recover the wealth his family stole from the state in a prior period in power. The Philippines is about to become unstable again.In Australia, early voting is now underway for their Saturday, May 21 federal election. Because of growing expectations the government will change, there is nervousness in the ruling party about how an incoming administration will define political corruption. And what a change could mean for Australian inflation going forward.The UST 10yr yield starts today down -8 bps since this time yesterday at 3.06%. As expected, Wall Street has started its week lower. The S&P500 is down -2.6% in Monday afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets all fell about -2.3%. Yesterday Tokyo shed -2.5%, Hong Kong was closed for a holiday, and Shanghai ended little-changed. The ASX200 ended its Monday session down -1.2% while the NZX50 ended down almost -2.0%.The price of gold starts today down -US$25 since this time yesterday at US$1858/oz.And oil prices are sharply lower today at just under US$102/bbl in the US with a -US$7.50 drop, while the international Brent price is now just over US$105/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today -¾c weaker again at 63.3 USc and another near two-year low. The devaluation since the start of April is now up to -9.2%. Against the Australian dollar we are slightly firmer at 91 AUc. And against the euro we are also sharply lower at 60 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.8 and its lowest since mid February. On a TWI-5 basis the devaluation since the start of April is now up to -5.2%.The bitcoin price is down another -8.2% from this time yesterday at US$31,260. At the beginning of April it was at US$47,294 so it is now down -34% since then and down -54% since its November 2021 peak. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just over +/- 5.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has finally added American Indian and Alaska Native labor data to its monthly jobs numbers. Why it's important and how the Minneapolis Fed proved it was possible.

Kal Kassa (Twitter @KalKassa) runs BitcoinBirr.org, an open-source Bitcoin educational initiative for Ethiopia. He also runs DIDIBold (DIDIBold.com), a branding/tech/marketing company. To strengthen the Bitcoin circular economy, I collaborated with Kal and DIDIBold for this podcast's logo and branding assets. Kal is Changing the Tide when it comes to onboarding Ethiopians to Bitcoin. He has a goal to onboard 10,000 Ethiopians to a Lightning wallet by September 2022 and is currently at 12% of the goal. He is set to speak on "Bitcoin in the Developing World" at the upcoming Oslo Freedom Forum. Next year, he will also host a Bitcoin conference in Addis Ababa next year. We also talked about: *his family's migration to California, moving back to Ethiopia after college, and landing in Austin *what laid the groundwork for him to become a Bitcoiner *inflation as Ethiopia's biggest burden, and what Ethiopians are doing to beat it *Bitcoin as the answer to the inflation problem in Ethiopia *what people like Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed misunderstand about how Bitcoin can create new opportunities in places like Ethiopia *meeting Lightning developers at PlebFi and BitDevs in Austin, including a cool realization about how much sense it makes for @roasbeef to be working on the network *my Bitcoin journey, which Kal was kind enough to ask about **Note: Nothing in this podcast constitutes financial or legal advice. The content within is solely for educational purposes. Please consult tax and legal professionals before making financial or other decisions based on what you hear.**

The last two jobs reports have been strong, but the unemployment rate remains over 5%. And by some estimates, the economy is still 8 million jobs shy of where it would have been had it not been for the crisis. So when will the Fed declare "victory" in hitting its employment mandate? It's a question that's been complicated by the recent rise in inflation. On this episode, we speak with Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Fed, a longtime proponent of pushing for a strong labor market. He explains what he's looking for, and how the labor market situation meshes with both the inflation situation and the Fed's new framework unveiled last year at Jackson Hole. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

In this episode (the first of five) of Workforce Realigned, an Economy Matters special podcast series, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari talk about the role of workforce development in building a resilient and inclusive economy.

Sri Zaheer is dean of the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management, where she holds the Elmer L. Andersen Chair in Global Corporate Social Responsibility. Sri is a director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and chairs the board since January 2020.  For her service to the Minneapolis Fed, she was named an Outstanding Director by Twin Cities Business. Sri's research focus is on international strategy and organization, and she has published extensively on global strategy, location, and organizational legitimacy. In 2018, she received the PwC Strategy& ‘Eminent Scholar' Award for lifetime achievement in thought-leadership from the International Management Division of the Academy of Management. During her tenure as dean, Sri introduced new degrees in business analytics, supply chain management, finance, and new partnerships with Tsinghua and Tongji Universities in China, as well as online and hybrid programs. Prior to academia, Sri worked in several multinationals, including at Sandoz, at Tata Consultancy Services, and as an economic correspondent on India and Nigeria for Business International.  She serves as a Charter Trustee of Hamilton College, and has served on several non-profit boards, including the Greater Twin Cities United Way, the Guthrie Theater and Mayo Clinic's Economic Development Agency. Sri received her Ph.D. from MIT's Sloan School.  She has a Corporate Director's Certificate from Harvard Business School, an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad, and a B.Sc. in Physics from Madras University.  She has lived/worked in India, China, Nigeria, France, Italy, Poland and Brazil, and loves to dabble in languages. Visit https://www.aib.world/frontline-ib/srilata-zaheer/ for the original video interview.

Thursday on Adams on Agriculture Joe Mahon with the Minneapolis Fed gives the results of their 4th quarter ag credit conditions survey, Stone X economist Arlan Suderman discusses the recent WASDE report and looks ahead to the USDA outlook conference and Michael Newland with PERC discusses propane supply and price.

Hosts Jim Maher and Gayle Knutson have discussions on the economy and education with Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (7:30); Ross Levin, founder and CEO of Accredited Wealth Investors on the embroiled stock market with the GameStop situation; and Marine resident and City Council Member Charlie Anderson, soon to be deployed with the Minnesota Army National Guard to the Middle East (45:00). Local news updates are also provided (36:30). The show's technical director is Matt Quast.

More idiocy from Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari. Trump's advisers tell him, "Don't touch the dollar. It MUST trade freely." Thoughts on Friedrich Nietzsche applied to trading. Are you a master or a slave?

Updated: 5:48 p.m. Minnesota set a record high for new COVID-19 cases over the weekend, just weeks before the school year is set to get under way. This has many Minnesotans worried that their friends and families are not taking the virus seriously enough. Minnesota Department of Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm and Director of Infectious Diseases Kris Ehresmann acknowledged those concerns in a conversation with MPR News host Kerri Miller on Monday. Latest on COVID-19 in MN Worries rise over isolation in long-term care State's new COVID-19 guidance To allow more visitors in long-term care A portion of this conversation has been transcribed and lightly edited for clarity. Listen to the full conversation with the audio player above. How have we gotten accustomed to the idea that 1,000 Americans are dying a day from this disease and that is a plateau that may not last once we get to fall. How have we adjusted to the idea of this? Commissioner Jan Malcolm: That's a really incredibly important point. I think hearing these numbers every day, we've gotten almost numb to it, it feels like, and we really have lost sight of the fact of what a sweeping catastrophe this is across the globe and in the United States. The rate of speed with which this virus moved around the world and has just come to upend everything is just breathtaking and it does seem like we just aren't quite, haven't wrapped our heads around how serious this really is. Why we grow numb to staggering statistics And what we can do about it Do you think it is still that enough of us do not have a family member who has been seriously sickened by this or we don't know anybody who has died from this? Malcolm: I do think that's true for many of us that we may know somebody who knows somebody, but still a relatively small proportion of us have been touched by this in a really direct personal way and I agree with you that will change as this progresses. Kris, I was reading an interview that you did recently with Stat by Helen Branswell and you were telling her about your dad being invited to visit some of his friends. He went and she said he wore his mask and he was doing the elbow bump instead of the shaking of hands. You said, ‘And the people kind of acted like, 'Oh, you drank that Kool-Aid' rather than we all need to be doing this.’ Tell us a little bit more about what your dad saw. Director Kris Ehresmann: He was invited to an outdoor gathering and so being my dad, he wore his mask and he got there and no one else was wearing masks. When he came, they said, “Oh, you're one of those people” and they wanted to shake hands and he did the elbow bump. He was a little surprised and I was a little discouraged, just simply because my dad is older. He's elderly and, and these people, some of them were healthcare workers, and so they commented on how they wear masks all the time at work. That disconnect was a little bit concerning to me. And particularly, as you've already mentioned, we're seeing the case numbers really continue to climb. There's no abatement. And so that worries me when people have that perspective. It's a silly way of looking at the world that “Oh, you're wearing a mask, like you believe in the pandemic,” and it's like, “Yeah, there is a pandemic going on.” Listener question: I live in southern Minnesota, a very rural area, and many of the people that I talk to and that I see believe it's a hoax. They're getting most of their information off of Facebook, the false information. They're not believing Dr. Fauci and the credible doctors. They are still going into the stores refusing to wear masks. How do we go about combating misinformation?  Malcolm: Thanks for what you're doing to try to help educate your fellow Minnesotans. It is so dangerous, just the fact that we can't seem to agree on fact, these days. Things do get filtered through kinds of political beliefs or other things or just mistrust in general of institutions, and that is a huge public health risk in and of itself if we can't agree on what is the science and what is accurate information. I am hopeful that with more and more people speaking out, more business leaders speaking up, for example. People should talk to their own trusted physicians, nurses, others, but we really need public figures of all political persuasions, all walks of life, to speak out, so that it's not just in a well, if you either believe in the state or local health department or you don't. It's so, so important that other public leaders also weigh in and help to try to persuade the folks that they really have a lot of sway with. A listener tweeted and says there’s endless bad information that many people believe, a lot of which comes out on social media. He adds in the lack of executive branch leadership for a national response and that he doesn't think it's we as a country are numb to this as much as we feel helpless to do anything to stop it. Do you think that's part of the equation here? Even though there are measures you can take, this seems very overwhelming. Ehresmann: Certainly. I absolutely agree with the thinking that yeah, this is overwhelming for people, and it may seem like pandemic global worldwide — it's too big. What can I do? You know, the journey of 1,000 miles begins with the first step. I think that we need to think about — You know what? You cannot control what the president decides to do. You cannot control what they decide to do in New Jersey. You can't even control what the governor decides to do. But you can, as an individual, take steps to protect yourself and protect the people around you. You can make sure that you're socially distancing, that you're wearing a mask to protect the people around you when you're out and about, that you're following all those things. I recognize that this seems just huge and you think, does it make a difference? But if each person is doing what they can do, then collectively we will have an impact.  Listener question: I'm a Ph.D. microbiologist and I haven't seen any studies on how fast the virus is killed in sunlight. It seems to me that people think that if they're outside, they don't need to wear masks and then they forget to social distance. What do we know about sunlight and the outdoors? Ehresmann: Yes and to the point of sunlight, we know that for many viruses, that sunlight helps to inactivate them. I haven't seen a particular study that indicates that sunlight inactivates SARS-CoV-2, but we know that that is the case with other viruses. So sunlight certainly helps, as well as the greater airflow and just more space and the ability to socially distance. I completely agree with the point that when people are outside, if you're outside and you're seated in a chair, and you've made sure that you're socially distanced from those individuals that you're interacting with, then taking off a mask makes sense. Do that because you're physically in place. But the challenge is if you're standing and people just migrate closer together and so I think it's important that being outside makes things better. But it doesn't mean that transmission can't happen. And I think that's really an important point to make is, it's definitely better. But it doesn't mean that transmission can't happen and so you need to still be taking precautions, and that's why I suggest that if you're getting together with people and you're putting your lawn chairs and you're all six feet apart, you're just gonna sit there and chat, that's great. And then you can feel comfortable.Take off your mask. But if you're going to be in any kind of mingling situation, that's more concerning. Listener question: I wonder why we're not hearing more about what it really means to get this disease and recover. We're getting statistics about how many people have tested positive, how many are in the ICU, and how many deaths there have been, but I'm not seeing a lot about the long-term effects or damage. Malcolm: Thanks for those comments. I think you're really very perceptive and it's a good example of how the narrative around this virus is changing as we learn more. Early on, everyone was stressing, public health officials included, that this is primarily a respiratory illness and the great majority of people have a fairly mild course, not intentionally downplaying the severity at all, but it was sort of what we knew at the time. It is becoming so much more clear that even folks with perhaps relatively mild cases do develop these other systemic effects. This, clearly now we understand SARS-CoV-2 attacks multiple organs of the body. It's not simply a respiratory issue. I think that is an important part of our messaging, to again, get across without denying what statistical probabilities are for different people in different risk groups that even for younger, healthier people, there can be very, very serious consequences to this disease, to themselves, as well as what we keep harping on about: risk to others that you can pass the virus to. When President Trump persistently for four or five months says it's a case of the sniffles, it's like the flu, 99 percent of people are just fine. They don't even know they've had it. Commissioner, that does get into the discussion stream and I think there are people, I don't know what their politics are, but they are legitimately confused about a message like that coming out of the White House. Malcolm: There's no question that there is still that sort of competing set of narratives around there, which unfortunately does seem to have sort of a political overtone to it about whether this is a serious public health threat or overblown and whether the public health mitigation measures are needed or excessive. That just is repeated day after day after day and layer on to that the fact that even the health messages have shifted over time, as we were just talking about, as we've learned more. Yeah, people are confused. But I'm just very hopeful that with a growing chorus of voices around, more concurrence on what the science is showing and the severity of this, that some of that hopefully will start to break through, but I couldn't agree more that the mixed messages and, and the pretty consistent underplaying of the risk in some circles is really damaging. Kris, Dr. Michael Osterholm teamed up with Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis and wrote an opinion piece . One of the things they said was to successfully drive down our case rate to less than one per 100,000 people per day, we should mandate sheltering in place for everyone but the truly essential workers. By that, we mean people must stay at home and leave only for essential reasons: food shopping; visits to doctors; and pharmacies, while wearing masks and washing hands frequently. Can you see something like that happening at this point? Ehresmann: Well, I don't deny the rationale for what they have proposed. But as we talked about the public seems to be in a very different place with this pandemic than they were in March. And so it may be difficult to get people to reconsider something like that, and I'm not sure what it will take because, as you said, 1,000 deaths a day. That’s not right, yet people seem okay with it. So I think that's the challenge. We're at sort of a different place in people's minds with this virus and they don't seem to be taking it as seriously as they need to. I think it would be difficult to do, but that doesn’t mean that we shouldn't consider it if it's going to be effective. Minneapolis Fed president National lockdown could be the economy's best hope Michael Osterholm on Where we are now with the COVID-19 pandemic Kris, do you think it's a time to seriously consider that again? Ehresmann: My concern is that we're going into fall. We're looking at colleges and some schools being back in session. We're going into flu season. I think we need to be thoughtful about how we approach the fall because we could certainly see case numbers increase even more than we have. I think it's something that we have to be thinking about. We have to constantly be looking at the data and looking at whether or not it's time to to dial back and I desperately wouldn't want to do that. But on the other hand, many people are not following the guidance and that is certainly causing challenges. Listener question: I've seen some health care workers on social media say that quarantine isn't worth the cost on mental health and that people with depression or suicidal thoughts will end up having reduced mental health services, which can be dangerous, or even more dangerous than COVID-19. I'm wondering what the reality of that is. Malcolm: Great point and certainly mental health is a huge issue that has been exacerbated by this pandemic. But certainly, the point of balance applies across other health concerns broadly and certainly we know the economic devastation that comes with these broader measures has its own short- and long-term health consequences. Balance is the thing that is then elusive, but it remains kind of the goal to strike that right balance between measures that we need. I just want to reinforce Kris' earlier point that we so strongly believe that if folks were following the guidance that is currently in place with the current set of the governor's orders around capacity limitations and social distancing and mask wearing, we could make a real difference and we just really want to stress how important these weeks are leading up to the fall that anything we can do, everything we can do to kind of control community spread now is going to help us with what we know is going to be a challenge in the fall. We've heard about cases ticking up on Saturday and then not quite as much on Sunday in Minnesota. I remember when the CDC came out to say the real case count is far higher than the daily statistics that we're seeing. How do you factor that in? Malcolm: We've been saying quite consistently for a long time now that what we know about laboratory confirmed cases is truly the tip of the iceberg. I think CDC's estimate was 10 cases for every one lab confirmed and we've felt that that's probably pretty reflective of our experience in Minnesota as well. I think it would probably be a good idea to continue to reinforce that point with the public, that the true impact is much broader than these daily numbers. The other thing, and this is kind of a data geeky thing, but it's useful, I think, for people to know, when we report every day about cases, what we're reporting is the laboratory confirmed cases that come back from processing on the prior day. Then from an analytic perspective, we go back and attribute each of those cases to the date on which the lab specimen was actually collected. We consider that sort of the onset date of the case. That's important because there's so much variability in lab processing time, especially in some of the national labs now being really slow and turnaround because of volume. So each day's numbers are not the full picture and not the picture that ultimately emerges. So on our website, we post lots and lots of different statistics and visualizations based on the date of onset or when the specimen was actually collected and that gives you a better picture of what's actually happening. If we have 5 million confirmed cases in the United States and you have to really multiply by some factor, we are in a much more dangerous place than we think we are.  Ehresmann: Oh, absolutely. And what we see is that each case, to get more cases, and it's a stone into a pond, and then the ripple effect and so we see the initial cases and then we see the downstream effect, which is a couple weeks out, we see more and more cases from those original cases and when the number of original cases increases, the secondary spread increases. Absolutely. We're in a place where all of the cases that we're seeing now are going to continue to result in more cases. I do think it's important that we acknowledge that while our laboratory testing has increased phenomenally, there are still limits. Yes, people have to realize that the number of cases that we're reporting is not the sum total of all the cases occurring in Minnesota. Listener question: When are we going to see more testing activity in the northwest suburbs? Recently, the Star Tribune published an article pointing to our greatest fears and something that we knew all along because of the high number of immigrants who work in the long-term care facilities. Many of those folks live here in Brooklyn Park, in the northwest suburbs and so we've seen a lot of cases in our community. I'm a city council member here in Brooklyn Park. And it's a real issue.  Malcolm: I totally agree with you that we need to continue to expand testing in the communities that we know are facing particular impacts of COVID-19. We have been stressing that people should go to their health care provider to get tests. The health systems have done really a great job trying to expand testing, but in addition to what's going on in our clinics and hospital systems, we have been really building up and intend to build up more these community testing events that really can be brought out to the community, especially in areas where there are concentrations of populations that may have trouble getting access to clinic based testing, or it's just for some people, it's a better option, a more comfortable option to, to be tested in a community setting by organizations that they know and so forth. So that is a priority of ours. We just are starting a new website to post where there are upcoming community testing sites and I will check and certainly pass along if Brooklyn Park and Brooklyn Center aren't yet on the list. I'll certainly bring that back to the team. So thank you for the suggestion, We had so many calls about the governor's decision on schools and then how school districts are going to handle this. What kind of comfort would you give parents who are really undecided about what to do with kids this fall? Ehresmann: Just as the commissioner mentioned earlier about the idea of balance, one of the things that we've worked with the Department of Education on is how do we balance making sure that kids have the opportunity for in-person education when it's appropriate, because it's so essential. All of the public health considerations and so the goal has been to help districts have options so that they can weigh what's happening in their community and look at disease activity within their community and use that to help drive their decisions. Certainly, we've seen transmission in children and we've seen it, more transmission, particularly in the middle school and older grades, than we have in the elementary and younger ages. I think what parents would want to consider is if you have a child that has underlying health conditions, and you're concerned about that, that certainly is something we know that there are things that make anyone at greater risk for severe disease and so that would be a consideration. I think in terms of encouragement, we know there's transmission but we have seen less severe disease in these age groups than we have in some of our older age groups. We know there’s an age-related risk. That's not to say that there isn't risk, but that it is age-related. I think those are all things that parents need to weigh, as they're making a decision about what would be best for their child, but certainly their individual child's own health status is something that I think is really important to consider. Many Minnesota teachers wary of Returning to the classroom For Minnesotans Walz’s school plan brings more questions than answers Minnesota’s rules for going back to school What you need to know Dr. Ashish Jha of Harvard, who has been doing a lot of statistical analysis on COVID-19, believes that any indoor gatherings of more than two people should essentially be banned, even with masks. If you look at high school classrooms, and you look at some of the pictures that we're getting out of states like Georgia, where older kids are in the hallways, and they're not wearing masks, and they're coming really close to each other and socializing. What do you think about the potential for disease spread in some of our high schools as they get back to in-person classes? Malcolm: Oh, that's interesting about Dr. Jha's comments. I hadn't seen that statement. But certainly I think everyone agrees that indoor environments just do pose some additional risks, which is why I think not only paying attention to what we know is going on with spread in the community, but what is the ability of schools to put in place the best practices around prevention and mitigation is part of the whole conversation that we're having with with school districts all around the state. But, again, I think back to the point on balance. It's going to just be critically important that we continue to keep our eyes on the data, see what emerges. We have to be humble enough to update our guidance and our advice based on new information as it emerges, and we certainly are committed to doing that. We're told that somewhere between 65 and 75 percent of us will have to have been exposed or protected from the virus because then the virus really has nowhere to go. Would a vaccine, even if it's rolled out in January or February, come soon enough, do you think, to lower those exposure thresholds? Are we going to get a vaccine, even if it's in the new year, soon enough for a lot of us to not have to end up being exposed to stop the virus? Ehresmann: Well, certainly I mean, one of the challenges, when you have a novel situation like this where the majority of the globe does not have any sort of immunologic interaction with this virus, even as fast as we're seeing it move, that means that when a vaccine does become available, literally everyone needs to get it. That certainly makes things challenging. One thing that's happening now that's different than what usually happens with vaccines is that usually you go through all of the the safety checks, which are all happening, but you don't start manufacturing or you don't start any sort of production until a vaccine has passed all of those safety checks because obviously, if it doesn't get to that point, you don't want to have invested the resources. That's a little bit different with the COVID vaccine. They're actually producing the vaccine even as it's being tested and there's a chance that a huge amount of that vaccine will just get wasted if it doesn't meet the criteria. But the goal is that there will be a vaccine available as soon as possible after a vaccine has been identified as being safe and effective. So that's something that's slightly different so that will help. But we do know that when the vaccine is first available that we will have to prioritize who receives the vaccine, whether it's individuals that are in essential service roles, and individuals who are at highest risk for complications of disease. That will be a challenging time. But at least the good news is that there have been some investments that have been made to say we're willing to have to trash a bunch of vaccines with the goal of having a vaccine that does meet the criteria, have some of it manufactured right away.  Given the timeline and the way the virus is spreading, it seems like even as the vaccines whenever we get them roll out, many, many of us are still going to be vulnerable. Right? Ehresmann: Absolutely. Yes. There's going to be a time frame where we have a vaccine, but not everyone who wants or needs to get the vaccine will be able to access it. And then that would make us susceptible to the virus.  Ehresmann: Yeah, that we will remain susceptible. We're susceptible right now and we'll stay susceptible until we can get the vaccine.  I think people think once the vaccine is announced, it's over. But it's not going to be over. Ehresmann: No, it'll still take time.  Listener question: What is the current thought about immunity if you've had the virus? I had it in late March and early April and I do wear a mask still, because I think it makes other people feel safer. But I'm just wondering, am I still at risk?  Malcolm: I think we are still learning and there's still just so many unanswered questions about the degree of immunity. It seems to vary from person to person, and how long it lasts. There, unfortunately, is not a lot of certainty. I think you're wise to continue to take precautions. But Kris may be more up on any more recent studies on that than I am. But I think the question is still just a very open one. Ehresmann: We're looking at that. At this point, CDC is recommending that once 90 days have passed and someone's had COVID-19, that if they would develop symptoms again, or develop issues, that we would think about, could this be a reinfection. We really don't have enough information to know at this point. But we are going to be looking at that. There's a lot of research going on right now into how long will the immunity last, not just from having experienced the disease, Kris but also from a vaccine, right? There's no guarantee that you are forever then immune to this virus if you've had a vaccine. Ehresmann: Absolutely. People need to remember that we have some vaccines, like the measles vaccine for which we expect that individual to have lifelong protection. But we have other vaccines, tetanus, you get that every 10 years and the influenza vaccine is necessary every single year. We're going to have to be monitoring post-COVID vaccines, how this virus or how this vaccine reacts with the virus and what duration of protection we have.  Subscribe to the MPR News with Kerri Miller podcast on: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts , Spotify or RSS.

Tune in to find out when the last time housing starts and permits were this low, investor expectations for the stock market, insights from the Minneapolis Fed's COVID-19 Dashboard, very interesting insights on the economic and social impacts of the pandemic from the Minneapolis Fed's COVID Impact Survey and tip #27 on how to stay sane during unemployment!

Paul Sankey, Mizuho Americas Oil & Gas Analyst, says crude futures could trade negatively again in May, if commodity trade advisors who must get out of their positions the day before settlement "get caught again." Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy, says earnings have come down, but prices are still relatively high. Narayana Kocherlakota, University of Rochester Economics Professor, Former Head of the Minneapolis Fed and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says that as long as interest rates & inflation remain low, congress and the Fed will continue to feel comfortable with expansionary programs. Jason Farley, John Hopkins University Nursing Professor, says he fully expects a second wave of COVID-19 infections. Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group Managing Director for the United States, says President Trump's immigration order is less about protecting jobs and more about setting up a contrast on immigration with Joe Biden in the fall election. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Paul Sankey, Mizuho Americas Oil & Gas Analyst, says crude futures could trade negatively again in May, if commodity trade advisors who must get out of their positions the day before settlement "get caught again." Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy, says earnings have come down, but prices are still relatively high. Narayana Kocherlakota, University of Rochester Economics Professor, Former Head of the Minneapolis Fed and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says that as long as interest rates & inflation remain low, congress and the Fed will continue to feel comfortable with expansionary programs. Jason Farley, John Hopkins University Nursing Professor, says he fully expects a second wave of COVID-19 infections. Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group Managing Director for the United States, says President Trump's immigration order is less about protecting jobs and more about setting up a contrast on immigration with Joe Biden in the fall election.

Trump checks are on the way, and he claims he knows nothing about it. Except what he does know. I'll explain. Plus my thoughts on the power struggle between the President and the Governors, my revised outlook on the oil situation, and Biden's big week. Links: Donald J. Trump's name will be on stimulus checks in unprecedented move - The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/) Pelosi calls Trump's name appearing on stimulus checks 'shameful' - CNNPolitics (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/politics/stimulus-check-trump-signature-pelosi/index.html) How is the World Health Organization funded? | World Economic Forum (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/who-funds-world-health-organization-un-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-trump/) Shocking New Documents Prove China Deliberately Withheld Critical Coronavirus Info | Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/shocking-report-shows-beijing-withheld-critical-coronavirus-evidence-6-days) Google Subpoenaed For Hillary Clinton Emails Believed To Contain Backup To Records Scrubbed With "Bleachbit" | Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/political/google-subpoenaed-hillary-clinton-emails-believed-contain-backup-records-scrubbed) Trump Says US 'Thoroughly Examining' Possibility Virus Leaked From Wuhan Biolab | Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-white-house-coronavirus-task-force-holds-wednesday-briefing) Text-Only NPR.org : Retail Spending Just Fell Off A Cliff (https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=834869831) Text-Only NPR.org : WHO Sets 6 Conditions For Ending A Coronavirus Lockdown (https://text.npr.org/s.php?sId=834021103) Virus Fund Cop Awaiting Help Watches $2 Trillion Bailout Alone - Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/virus-fund-cop-awaiting-help-watches-2-trillion-bailout-alone) African Union condemns Trump for halting WHO funding - Africa Feeds (https://africafeeds.com/2020/04/15/african-union-condemns-trump-for-halting-who-funding/) Number of COVID-19 cases in Seattle hospitals flat, city leaders told | KOMO (https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/number-of-covid-19-cases-in-seattle-hospitals-flat-city-leaders-told) NYC death toll jumps by 3,700 after uncounted fatalities are added (https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/14/new-york-city-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-by-3-700-after-uncounted-fatalities-are-added-1275931) Harvard researchers say coronavirus social distancing may be until 2022 (https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/harvard-researchers-say-coronavirus-social-distancing-may-be-until-2022/) CDC, FEMA have created a plan to reopen America. Here's what it says. - The Hour (https://www.thehour.com/news/article/CDC-FEMA-have-created-a-plan-to-reopen-America-15200830.php) Fortune Lays Off About 10% of Staff, Executives to Take 30% Pay Cuts (https://www.thewrap.com/fortune-lays-off-about-10-of-staff-executives-to-take-30-pay-cuts/) ESPN Asking Top Talent To Take 15% Pay Cut (https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/Breaking-News/2020/04/ESPN.aspx) Washington, Oregon and California announce Western States Pact | Governor Jay Inslee (https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/washington-oregon-and-california-announce-western-states-pact) Cuomo warns of constitutional crisis 'like you haven't seen in decades' if Trump tries to reopen New York (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/cuomo-says-if-trump-tries-reopen-new-york-then-we-n1183341) Trump claims 'total' authority, over govs, to reopen economy (https://apnews.com/ba9578acf23bdb03fd51a2b81f640560) IMF: Global economy to contract by 3% due to coronavirus (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/imf-global-economy-to-contract-by-3percent-due-to-coronavirus.html) Exclusive: JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens (https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/exclusive-jpmorgan-chase-raise-mortgage-221128934.html) Minneapolis Fed president says Fed is being "as aggressive as possible" in coronavirus response - CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-neel-kashkari-federal-reserve-response-face-the-nation/) "Boomer Crisis" – Crash Permanently Delays Retirement Plans | Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/boomer-crisis-crash-permanently-delays-retirement-plans)

On April 10, 2020, Kate Kelly, Regional President of PNC Bank, talked with Mark Wright, Sr. Vice President and Director of Research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Their conversation centered around the history, structure and role of the Federal Reserve, and the important role the Fed has played in these times of crisis and need for liquidity. It’s a very timely discussion during the COVID-19 challenges. Mark L. J. Wright is senior vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. In this role, he oversees key research efforts at the Minneapolis Fed and advises the Bank’s president on monetary policy and related matters. Prior to coming to Minneapolis, Wright was a senior economist and research advisor in the Economic Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Wright has been an associate professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, and an assistant professor at Stanford University. He has been an economist and advisor to the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve Banks of San Francisco and Minneapolis, as well as an instructor at the IMF Institute. Wright received a B.A. in economics from the University of Sydney, Australia, and an M.A. and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago. His research examines the macroeconomics of developing countries, with a specific focus on their tendency to be prone to international financial crises. Much of his recent work has been devoted to sovereign default and the process by which sovereign debts are restructured.

Apple and Google are working together to build in OS-level opt-in COVID-19 contact tracing. We explain how this technology will work, the project it's based on, and our concerns with its use. Plus the latest news, the mechanics of how Trump and the Media rile each other up, and our new outlook on the election. Links: Exclusive: JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens (https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/exclusive-jpmorgan-chase-raise-mortgage-221128934.html) Minneapolis Fed president says Fed is being "as aggressive as possible" in coronavirus response - CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-neel-kashkari-federal-reserve-response-face-the-nation/) "Boomer Crisis" – Crash Permanently Delays Retirement Plans | Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/boomer-crisis-crash-permanently-delays-retirement-plans) This Is The 'Supercut' Video President Trump Just Played In The White House Press Briefing | Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/political/supercut-video-president-trump-just-played-white-house-press-briefing) Beijing tightens grip over coronavirus research amid US-China row on virus origin - CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html) Largest US Study Of COVID-19 Admissions Reveals Single Biggest Factor In Hospitalization | Zero Hedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/health/largest-us-study-covid-19-reveals-single-biggst-factor-hospitalizations) Seattle researcher debunks theory COVID-19 spread in Calif. in November | KOMO (https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/seattle-researcher-debunks-theory-covid-19-spread-in-calif-in-november) Kashkari Says U.S. May Face 18 Months of Rolling Shutdowns (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/feds-kashkari-says-us-may-face-18-months-of-rolling-shutdowns/ar-BB12wqGD) U.S. government gave $3.7million grant to Wuhan lab that experimented on coronavirus source bats | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211291/U-S-government-gave-3-7million-grant-Wuhan-lab-experimented-coronavirus-source-bats.html) Here’s How Apple and Google Plan to Track the Coronavirus Through Your Phone - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/heres-how-apple-and-google-plan-to-track-the-coronavirus-through-your-phone-11586618075) Top doc Fauci admits lives could have been saved if US had shut down in February – but recommendation ‘not taken’ – The US Sun (https://www.the-sun.com/news/672794/fauci-lives-saved-us-shut-down-earlier/) What Will the GDP Be for Second Quarter of 2020? JPMorgan Prediction (https://www.mediaite.com/news/jpmorgan-predicts-gdp-will-completely-crater-forecasts-a-staggering-40-percent-second-quarter-drop/) Schiff, Feinstein, Harris formally propose 9/11-style commission to probe coronavirus response | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schiff-sens-feinstein-harris-announce-9-11-style-commission-to-probe-coronavirus) Schiff unveils bill to launch 9/11-style probe of Trump's coronavirus response - New York Daily News (https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-schiff-probe-wrong-trump-20200410-p4vsuoybybf2zfmvabjesqsuo4-story.html) Five Takeaways on What Trump Knew as the Virus Spread – DNyuz (https://dnyuz.com/2020/04/11/five-takeaways-on-what-trump-knew-as-the-virus-spread/) YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=defdwc2g2_8&feature=share) Google and Apple launching coronavirus contact-tracing system for iOS and Android - The Verge (https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/4/10/21216484/google-apple-coronavirus-contract-tracing-bluetooth-location-tracking-data-app?__twitter_impression=true) Snowden Warns Governments Are Using Coronavirus to Build ‘the Architecture of Oppression’ - VICE (https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/bvge5q/snowden-warns-governments-are-using-coronavirus-to-build-the-architecture-of-oppression)

5) COVID-19 case count double from a week ago; 4) Senate Democrats block $1.8 trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill; 3) President of Minneapolis Fed says its mission is to “literally print money”; 2) ISIS issues travel advisory, warning fighters to avoid Europe; 1) Media spreads meme that white supremacists may try to weaponize coronavirus.

Neel Kashkari is the President of the Minneapolis Fed. And he's run a bailout of an economy already. | Subscribe to our weekly newsletter here.

Even before Lehman Brothers went belly-up, the U.S. Treasury was hatching a contingency plan. Kashkari was one of the architects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which plugged some $250 bln into banks. He joins Rob Cox from his current perch running the Minneapolis Fed. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Neel Kashkari is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and Ron Feldman is the first vice president and chief operating officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Today, they join the show to describe the Minneapolis Plan to End Too Big to Fail, the Minneapolis Fed’s proposal to end the problem of systemic risk to the economy posed by excessively large financial institutions. Neel also shares his thoughts on improving Fed transparency and monetary policy. Disclaimer: Unfortunately, we had some audio problems during the recording, but because this conversation is so important and interesting we wanted to bring it you anyway. And, if you prefer, we’ve also made a transcript, which is linked to below. Transcript of today’s conversation https://www.mercatus.org/podcasts/neel-kashkari-ron-feldman-minneapolis-plan-monetary-policy-reform *The Minneapolis Plan to End Too Big to Fail* https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications/special-studies/endingtbtf Neel Kashkari’s Twitter: @neelkashkari Ron Feldman’s Twiiter: @ronjfeldman Minneapolis Fed’s Twitter: @MinneapolisFed Neel Kashkari’s Medium: https://medium.com/@neelkashkari David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Negative interest rates will likely remain important, says the University of Rochester's Professor Narayana Kocherlakota, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. But the trick will be to harness low rates to boost consumer expectations and spending. Read the transcript http://bit.ly/2tNP5zZ Watch and listen to the full presentation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKnJS37KbGE&feature=youtu.be&t=2420 Read other ADBI resources ADBI Annual Conference 2016: The Implications of Ultra-Low and Negative Interest Rates for Asia https://www.adb.org/news/events/adbi-annual-conference-2016-implications-ultra-low-and-negative-interest-rates-asia Monetary policy spillovers in emerging Asia By Ansgar Belke, Irina Dubova and Ulrich Volz https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2017/05/monetary-policy-spillovers-in-emerging-asia/ Ultra-low interest rates and wandering overinvestment cycles in East Asia By Gunther Schnabl https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2017/03/ultra-low-interest-rates-and-wandering-overinvestment-cycles-in-east-asia/

Narayana Kocherlakota, a Bloomberg View columnist and the former Minneapolis Fed president, discusses what he calls the Fed's $2 trillion mistake and why economic forecasting is still broken. Michael Arnold, Bloomberg's bureau chief for Israel and Palestinian territories, talks about President Trump's trip to the Middle East. David Zervos, the chief market strategist at Jefferies LLC, discusses how excessive regulation has stymied GDP growth. Finally, Keith Naughton, auto editor-at-large at Bloomberg in Detroit, talks about Ford CEO Mark Fields being replaced by turnaround specialist Jim Hackett, the head of Ford's Smart Mobility subsidiary.

Felix Salmon of Fusion, Slate Moneybox columnist Jordan Weissmann, and emerging-markets expert Anna Szymanski, discuss:South Africa’s credit rating downgrade to junk status.How markets aren’t responding predictably to recent economic events.Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari’s beef with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon over how to prevent another banking crisis. Check out other Panoply podcasts at panoply.fm. Email: slatemoney@slate.com Twitter: @felixsalmon, @JHWeissmann, @Three_Guineas Production by Zachary Dinerstein. Slate Money is brought to you by Orkin. Every home is unique, that’s why Orkin creates customized treatment plans based in science from the nation’s leading entomologists. Get 50 dollars off your first pest control service by signing up at orkin.com/MONEY And by Green Mountain Coffee. Green Mountain Coffee is passionate about making a smoother tasting cup. Try it today with $4 off, when you buy two boxes of most Green Mountain Coffee K-Cup pods at keurig.com, with code TRYGMC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Felix Salmon of Fusion, Slate Moneybox columnist Jordan Weissmann, and emerging-markets expert Anna Szymanski, discuss:South Africa’s credit rating downgrade to junk status.How markets aren’t responding predictably to recent economic events.Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari’s beef with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon over how to prevent another banking crisis. Check out other Panoply podcasts at panoply.fm. Email: slatemoney@slate.com Twitter: @felixsalmon, @JHWeissmann, @Three_Guineas Production by Zachary Dinerstein. Slate Money is brought to you by Orkin. Every home is unique, that’s why Orkin creates customized treatment plans based in science from the nation’s leading entomologists. Get 50 dollars off your first pest control service by signing up at orkin.com/MONEY And by Green Mountain Coffee. Green Mountain Coffee is passionate about making a smoother tasting cup. Try it today with $4 off, when you buy two boxes of most Green Mountain Coffee K-Cup pods at keurig.com, with code TRYGMC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Narayana Kocherlakota, a Bloomberg View columnist and former Minneapolis Fed president, tells Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz why the Fed should display more patience on a rate hike. Washington D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser comments on reaction to Donald Trump's EPA cuts and predicts women's leadership will make a difference in the fight against climate change. Marc Stefanski, chief executive officer of Third Federal Savings & Loan, discusses the housing market and outlook for rate increases. Finally, Alexandra Palt, chief sustainability officer at L'Oreal, expounds on sustainability and delivering on the Paris agreement.

On this episode of Slate Money, Neil Irwin, author of The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire, joins hosts Felix Salmon of Fusion, Cathy O’Neil of mathbabe.org, and Slate’s Moneybox columnist Jordan Weissmann. This week is all about Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed's new solution for our too-big-to-fail banks. Topics discussed on today’s show include: -How to break up the biggest banks. -How we could turn banks into public utilities. -How to take away the tax-deductibility of interest. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of Slate Money, Neil Irwin, author of The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire, joins hosts Felix Salmon of Fusion, Cathy O’Neil of mathbabe.org, and Slate’s Moneybox columnist Jordan Weissmann. This week is all about Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed's new solution for our too-big-to-fail banks. Topics discussed on today’s show include: -How to break up the biggest banks.  -How we could turn banks into public utilities. -How to take away the tax-deductibility of interest.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices