POPULARITY
3 episodes with volcker
3 episodes with volcker
3 episodes with volcker
4 episodes with volcker
3 episodes with volcker
3 episodes with volcker
3 episodes with volcker
2 episodes with volcker
3 episodes with volcker
In “The Fed Deep Dive Pt. 4” we discuss the historical evolution of the Federal Reserve's power and priorities. During World War II, the Fed was essentially controlled by the Treasury, pegging interest rates low to finance war efforts, which later led to significant inflation. The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord granted the Fed independence, allowing it to focus on managing the economy and fighting inflation. The 1970s brought the "Great Inflation," driven by government spending, oil shocks, and the flawed belief in the Phillips Curve, which suggested trading off inflation for lower unemployment. Congress established the Fed's dual mandate in 1977, requiring it to pursue maximum employment and stable prices.In 1979, Paul Volcker became Fed Chair and shifted the approach to combatting inflation by targeting the money supply instead of just interest rates, inspired by monetarist theory. This led to drastically high interest rates, reaching 20%, which induced recessions but successfully brought inflation down. The Volcker era emphasized price stability as the foundation for long-term economic health, and the Fed learned that prioritizing policy over political pressures is crucial. This history highlights the evolution of the Fed's role and the critical importance of its independence and focus on controlling inflation for overall economic stability.The big takeaway? ✨ The Fed learned that price stability is the foundation of everything else—jobs, growth, and economic confidence. ✨ And history shows us what happens when the Fed's priorities get steered by politics instead of policy.------------------------------------------------
In this episode, Andy Tanner sits down with Scott Bok to explore the highs, lows, and hard-won wisdom from over four decades in finance. Bok shares insights from his book Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing, diving into five major market crises, the evolution of M&A, and the psychological resilience required to not just survive—but thrive—on Wall Street.Mentioned In This Episode:- Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing by Scott Bok- Wharton School of Business-you Long-Term Capital Management- The Dot-Com Bust, 2008 GFC, COVID Crash- Buffett, Volcker, Greenspan, Schiller, and moreCall to Action:- Grab Scott's book on Amazon: https://a.co/d/cewwEn6 - Want to make a quantum leap in your investing education? Visit YourInvestingClass.com
More than any one institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global capital markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by a committee, for almost a century, the Fed's philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In the first series of The Chair, Tim Gwynn Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's foundational Chairs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In this second series, he covers the people who chaired the Fed through the post-1990 period of financialisation, globalisation, and – perhaps today – deglobalisation. This eighth and final episode covers the life and times of the current chair, Jerome ("Jay") Powell - the technocratic lawyer-turned-banker who managed the global economy through two unprecedented disasters: the Covid pandemic and Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. As the episodes about Martin, Burns, and Volcker all attest, Powell isn't the first chairman to face political blowback. But he is the first to be publicly denounced as “Mr Too Late” and a “major loser” by a president intent on removing him from office before his term ends in mid-2026. To discuss Powell, Tim is joined by Nick Timiraos, author of Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster (Little, Brown, 2022). “If people think you're not going to act in the country's best interest, that's bad for the Fed,” he says. “The next time the Fed decides it needs to do something that actually is ‘exigent and unusual', people will say: ‘Well, wait a minute, the last time you did this, we thought you were a toady for the Democrats or a toady for the Republicans. We don't think you're a straight shooter. We're not going to let you raise interest rates by 25 basis points. We're not going to give you money to backstop your purchases of corporate credit'. Those are the kind of medium and long term risks from a fight with the White House. I think, for Powell, the worst outcome is that people don't think you have an independent central bank anymore. Your monetary policy won't be credible. Why not just roll that thing into the Treasury Department if that's what you're going to do?” Since 2017, Nick Timiraos has been the chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal and has developed an unrivalled reputation as the "Fed whisperer". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network
More than any one institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global capital markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by a committee, for almost a century, the Fed's philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In the first series of The Chair, Tim Gwynn Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's foundational Chairs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In this second series, he covers the people who chaired the Fed through the post-1990 period of financialisation, globalisation, and – perhaps today – deglobalisation. This eighth and final episode covers the life and times of the current chair, Jerome ("Jay") Powell - the technocratic lawyer-turned-banker who managed the global economy through two unprecedented disasters: the Covid pandemic and Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. As the episodes about Martin, Burns, and Volcker all attest, Powell isn't the first chairman to face political blowback. But he is the first to be publicly denounced as “Mr Too Late” and a “major loser” by a president intent on removing him from office before his term ends in mid-2026. To discuss Powell, Tim is joined by Nick Timiraos, author of Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster (Little, Brown, 2022). “If people think you're not going to act in the country's best interest, that's bad for the Fed,” he says. “The next time the Fed decides it needs to do something that actually is ‘exigent and unusual', people will say: ‘Well, wait a minute, the last time you did this, we thought you were a toady for the Democrats or a toady for the Republicans. We don't think you're a straight shooter. We're not going to let you raise interest rates by 25 basis points. We're not going to give you money to backstop your purchases of corporate credit'. Those are the kind of medium and long term risks from a fight with the White House. I think, for Powell, the worst outcome is that people don't think you have an independent central bank anymore. Your monetary policy won't be credible. Why not just roll that thing into the Treasury Department if that's what you're going to do?” Since 2017, Nick Timiraos has been the chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal and has developed an unrivalled reputation as the "Fed whisperer". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science
More than any one institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global capital markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by a committee, for almost a century, the Fed's philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In the first series of The Chair, Tim Gwynn Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's foundational Chairs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In this second series, he covers the people who chaired the Fed through the post-1990 period of financialisation, globalisation, and – perhaps today – deglobalisation. This eighth and final episode covers the life and times of the current chair, Jerome ("Jay") Powell - the technocratic lawyer-turned-banker who managed the global economy through two unprecedented disasters: the Covid pandemic and Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. As the episodes about Martin, Burns, and Volcker all attest, Powell isn't the first chairman to face political blowback. But he is the first to be publicly denounced as “Mr Too Late” and a “major loser” by a president intent on removing him from office before his term ends in mid-2026. To discuss Powell, Tim is joined by Nick Timiraos, author of Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster (Little, Brown, 2022). “If people think you're not going to act in the country's best interest, that's bad for the Fed,” he says. “The next time the Fed decides it needs to do something that actually is ‘exigent and unusual', people will say: ‘Well, wait a minute, the last time you did this, we thought you were a toady for the Democrats or a toady for the Republicans. We don't think you're a straight shooter. We're not going to let you raise interest rates by 25 basis points. We're not going to give you money to backstop your purchases of corporate credit'. Those are the kind of medium and long term risks from a fight with the White House. I think, for Powell, the worst outcome is that people don't think you have an independent central bank anymore. Your monetary policy won't be credible. Why not just roll that thing into the Treasury Department if that's what you're going to do?” Since 2017, Nick Timiraos has been the chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal and has developed an unrivalled reputation as the "Fed whisperer". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/biography
More than any one institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global capital markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by a committee, for almost a century, the Fed's philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In the first series of The Chair, Tim Gwynn Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's foundational Chairs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In this second series, he covers the people who chaired the Fed through the post-1990 period of financialisation, globalisation, and – perhaps today – deglobalisation. This eighth and final episode covers the life and times of the current chair, Jerome ("Jay") Powell - the technocratic lawyer-turned-banker who managed the global economy through two unprecedented disasters: the Covid pandemic and Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. As the episodes about Martin, Burns, and Volcker all attest, Powell isn't the first chairman to face political blowback. But he is the first to be publicly denounced as “Mr Too Late” and a “major loser” by a president intent on removing him from office before his term ends in mid-2026. To discuss Powell, Tim is joined by Nick Timiraos, author of Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster (Little, Brown, 2022). “If people think you're not going to act in the country's best interest, that's bad for the Fed,” he says. “The next time the Fed decides it needs to do something that actually is ‘exigent and unusual', people will say: ‘Well, wait a minute, the last time you did this, we thought you were a toady for the Democrats or a toady for the Republicans. We don't think you're a straight shooter. We're not going to let you raise interest rates by 25 basis points. We're not going to give you money to backstop your purchases of corporate credit'. Those are the kind of medium and long term risks from a fight with the White House. I think, for Powell, the worst outcome is that people don't think you have an independent central bank anymore. Your monetary policy won't be credible. Why not just roll that thing into the Treasury Department if that's what you're going to do?” Since 2017, Nick Timiraos has been the chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal and has developed an unrivalled reputation as the "Fed whisperer". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics
More than any one institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global capital markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by a committee, for almost a century, the Fed's philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In the first series of The Chair, Tim Gwynn Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's foundational Chairs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In this second series, he covers the people who chaired the Fed through the post-1990 period of financialisation, globalisation, and – perhaps today – deglobalisation. This eighth and final episode covers the life and times of the current chair, Jerome ("Jay") Powell - the technocratic lawyer-turned-banker who managed the global economy through two unprecedented disasters: the Covid pandemic and Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. As the episodes about Martin, Burns, and Volcker all attest, Powell isn't the first chairman to face political blowback. But he is the first to be publicly denounced as “Mr Too Late” and a “major loser” by a president intent on removing him from office before his term ends in mid-2026. To discuss Powell, Tim is joined by Nick Timiraos, author of Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster (Little, Brown, 2022). “If people think you're not going to act in the country's best interest, that's bad for the Fed,” he says. “The next time the Fed decides it needs to do something that actually is ‘exigent and unusual', people will say: ‘Well, wait a minute, the last time you did this, we thought you were a toady for the Democrats or a toady for the Republicans. We don't think you're a straight shooter. We're not going to let you raise interest rates by 25 basis points. We're not going to give you money to backstop your purchases of corporate credit'. Those are the kind of medium and long term risks from a fight with the White House. I think, for Powell, the worst outcome is that people don't think you have an independent central bank anymore. Your monetary policy won't be credible. Why not just roll that thing into the Treasury Department if that's what you're going to do?” Since 2017, Nick Timiraos has been the chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal and has developed an unrivalled reputation as the "Fed whisperer". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More than any one institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global capital markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by a committee, for almost a century, the Fed's philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In the first series of The Chair, Tim Gwynn Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's foundational Chairs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In this second series, he covers the people who chaired the Fed through the post-1990 period of financialisation, globalisation, and – perhaps today – deglobalisation. This eighth and final episode covers the life and times of the current chair, Jerome ("Jay") Powell - the technocratic lawyer-turned-banker who managed the global economy through two unprecedented disasters: the Covid pandemic and Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. As the episodes about Martin, Burns, and Volcker all attest, Powell isn't the first chairman to face political blowback. But he is the first to be publicly denounced as “Mr Too Late” and a “major loser” by a president intent on removing him from office before his term ends in mid-2026. To discuss Powell, Tim is joined by Nick Timiraos, author of Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster (Little, Brown, 2022). “If people think you're not going to act in the country's best interest, that's bad for the Fed,” he says. “The next time the Fed decides it needs to do something that actually is ‘exigent and unusual', people will say: ‘Well, wait a minute, the last time you did this, we thought you were a toady for the Democrats or a toady for the Republicans. We don't think you're a straight shooter. We're not going to let you raise interest rates by 25 basis points. We're not going to give you money to backstop your purchases of corporate credit'. Those are the kind of medium and long term risks from a fight with the White House. I think, for Powell, the worst outcome is that people don't think you have an independent central bank anymore. Your monetary policy won't be credible. Why not just roll that thing into the Treasury Department if that's what you're going to do?” Since 2017, Nick Timiraos has been the chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal and has developed an unrivalled reputation as the "Fed whisperer". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More than any one institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global capital markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by a committee, for almost a century, the Fed's philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In the first series of The Chair, Tim Gwynn Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's foundational Chairs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In this second series, he covers the people who chaired the Fed through the post-1990 period of financialisation, globalisation, and – perhaps today – deglobalisation. This eighth and final episode covers the life and times of the current chair, Jerome ("Jay") Powell - the technocratic lawyer-turned-banker who managed the global economy through two unprecedented disasters: the Covid pandemic and Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. As the episodes about Martin, Burns, and Volcker all attest, Powell isn't the first chairman to face political blowback. But he is the first to be publicly denounced as “Mr Too Late” and a “major loser” by a president intent on removing him from office before his term ends in mid-2026. To discuss Powell, Tim is joined by Nick Timiraos, author of Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic and Prevented Economic Disaster (Little, Brown, 2022). “If people think you're not going to act in the country's best interest, that's bad for the Fed,” he says. “The next time the Fed decides it needs to do something that actually is ‘exigent and unusual', people will say: ‘Well, wait a minute, the last time you did this, we thought you were a toady for the Democrats or a toady for the Republicans. We don't think you're a straight shooter. We're not going to let you raise interest rates by 25 basis points. We're not going to give you money to backstop your purchases of corporate credit'. Those are the kind of medium and long term risks from a fight with the White House. I think, for Powell, the worst outcome is that people don't think you have an independent central bank anymore. Your monetary policy won't be credible. Why not just roll that thing into the Treasury Department if that's what you're going to do?” Since 2017, Nick Timiraos has been the chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal and has developed an unrivalled reputation as the "Fed whisperer". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/finance
Send us a textWelcome back! Happy New Year! Glad to be back! Come one, come all! Eric Leeper is the Paul Goodloe McIntire Professor in Economics at the University of Virginia. He also is a visiting scholar at the Mercatus Center at GMU. Today, we talk about inflation. He explains to us how inflation theory has evolved and how we forgot about the relationship between the fiscal and monetary sides of the economy.Want to explore more?John Cochrane on Monetary versus Fiscal Policy, A Great Antidote podcast.Leonidas Zelmanovitz, The Boundaries of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, at Econlib.Allen Meltzer on Inflation, an EconTalk podcast.Thomas Hoening on Inflation and the Federal Reserve, a Great Antidote podcast.Maryann Keating, Adam Smith and the Public Debt, at AdamSmithWorks.Never miss another AdamSmithWorks update.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
On President Jimmy Carter's responsibility for neoliberalism. [Patreon Exclusive] Writer and historian Tim Barker talks to Alex Hochuli and contributing editor Alex Gourevitch about the former president's life and legacy. What do people get wrong about Carter? Was Carter, not Reagan, the start of neoliberalism? How is Carter's much-admired 'decency' of a piece with his neoliberalism? What is 'austerity' and how does it relate to questions of public and private, vice and virtue? What was the alternative to the neoliberal pivot in the late 1970s? How did the appointment of Fed chairman Volcker change the entire world? Did Carter set the script for the Democrats, of being 'noble losers' (but actually on the side of the winners)? Links: Jimmy Carter, 1924-2024, Tim Barker, Origins of Our Time Weapons of the Week newsletter On neoliberalism and the Cold War: /276/ Broken Promises ft. Fritz Bartel Other biographical/obituary episodes: Silvio Berlusconi: An Oral History /293/ Goodbye 20th Century (RIP Gorby) /410/ Reading Club: Deutscher's Stalin /435/ Reading Club: Stalin's General – Winning WWII
Wolf, Marcus www.deutschlandfunk.de, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft
Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors LP, joins Julia La Roche episode 190 to discuss the macro picture and why the economy is likely headed toward recession. He also thinks this overvalued stock market could see a 15-20% correction. Links: website: https://www.ftportfolios.com/ blog: https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/Economics/index.aspx X: https://x.com/wesbury 0:00 Welcome Brian Wesbury 1:09 Macro view 3:30 Why we're going to have a recession 4:25 Health of the economy 8:15 Savings rate 10:45 Bifurcated economy 12:30 Housing 15:45 Federal Reserve have separated the money supply from interest rates 19:60 Burns or Volcker 21:20 Cut because of politics 25:20 Debt situation 30:40 Bitcoin 33:44 State-run capitalism 37:00 Markets 40:00 Energy 42:50 Presidential election 47:20 Parting thoughts
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/history
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/biography
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/american-studies
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More than any other global institution, the US Federal Reserve's decisions and communications drive capital markets and alter financial conditions everywhere from Seattle to Seoul. While its interest rate are set by an expert committee, for almost a century, the Fed's core philosophy and operational approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. In this podcast series, Tim Gwynn Jones - a veteran central bank "watcher" - talks to authors of books about the Fed's most influential Chairs, starting with Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, and Paul Volcker. In the fourth and final episode of this series, he talks to William Silber – author of Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence (Bloomsbury, 2012). A giant (literally) of 20th-century policymaking, Volcker chaired the Fed from 1979 to 1987, implementing monetarist shock therapy, driving up the fed funds rate from 11% to 20% to crush inflation expectations, and pulling inflation down from nearly 15% in early 1980 to below 3% three years later. “For Volcker, the most important denigrating fact of inflation was … that it undermines trust in government,” says Silber. “When we give the government the right to print money … we trust that the government will not debase the currency … When you think about inflation in that context, there is no number – two, four, six. Any number is bad. The only number that works is zero .. If you asked Volcker – and I asked him – what's the right number, he said zero”. From 1990 until his retirement in 2019, Bill Silber was professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His award-winning book is built on more than 100 hours of interviews with Volcker. The author of seven other books, Silber's latest – The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business – will be published in paperback in September 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/finance
Learn how garages and parking areas add value to property. Find out how to earn more rent for your garage space. Adding a garage to a rental doesn't fetch much more rent income. But you will rent your place faster and tenants stay longer. To get more rent for a detached garage, rent it to an off-site tenant. The future of parking and garages is positioned to be shaken by autonomous cars. Fewer people will need to own or park cars. Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It's November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here. Brien Lundin joins us. He is the host of the world's longest-running investment conference, the New Orleans Investment Conference. He's also editor of Gold Newsletter. He & I discuss inflation, interest rates, real estate, and gold. Gold is up 20%+ annually. This is because foreign nations, like China, are beginning to prefer to own gold rather than US debt. There's a case for interest rates to go higher, another case for them to go lower. Brien tells us why he believes the gold price will keep rising. Increasingly, asset values are positively correlated—real estate, stocks, gold, crypto, oil, and even collectibles. Personally, though I don't see evidence that gold builds wealth, history shows that it's a good place to store wealth. Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It's November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here. Resources mentioned: Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It's November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here. For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn about garage real estate, how garages and parking add value to your property, and how to get more rent for the garage. Then we go from micro to macro. As we talk about the enduring value of a real asset that's minted, not printed, and another chance to meet me in person today and Get Rich Education. Robert Syslo (00:00:27) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Robert Syslo (00:01:01) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com. Keith Weinhold (00:01:29) - Welcome to GRE! From Saint Augustine, Florida, to Saint Paul, Minnesota, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education as we cover a component of property that's a little talked about, garages and we're a real estate investing show. You learn about ways to optimize the rent income that a garage can produce for you, too. Now, if the home that you currently live in has a garage, it could be the entrance to the home that you use even more often than your own front door. That's how important and useful it's become. And understand that garages on homes, they didn't even exist until about 100 years ago, because that's when cars began to become popular. The emergence of the garage in American real estate is one reason for the downfall of the big front porch. You rarely see big porches on modern homes. Keith Weinhold (00:02:26) - Interestingly, some of America's most successful companies began in garages, places where you have workbenches and can tinker around with things. Google and Nike were launched in garages, and it's also where people store lots of things, sometimes so many things that they can't even get their car in there anymore. In fact, the word garage comes from the French garage. Spell that g a r e r meaning to store. But yeah, when cars became more popular in the 1920s and 1930s, that's when you begin to see garages. And then as cars got larger, garages got larger. And by the 1960s, as families began to own not just one car but 2 or 3 cars, garages became larger again, and a three car garage is pretty common today in a single family home, though it's rarely that big in a property that you're going to rent out. Now, if you've got a single family home and it does not have a garage and you want to make a garage addition. Well, you can only expect to recoup 65 to 80% of what you've spent. Keith Weinhold (00:03:40) - So it is a money loser. Then it really doesn't make sense to add one to a rental, perhaps only your primary residence, since you get the benefit of using it yourself that way. And if you add a garage to a rental, you know you just really can't get that much more in rent for it. It's usually not worth it, although the financials can look better for a carport addition instead. Now, if you've got a rental with the garage rather than without one, it actually can help you get your place rented out faster. But a tenants really not going to pay you even as much as 10% more in overall rent in most every case. Yet see, what happens is that a tenant, they tend to fill up the garage with stuff, and therefore they tend to stay longer than if there were no garage. A garage is one reason that single family rentals see longer tenant durations then apartments. Now, if your property though, if it's in a built up area and there's little on street parking, oh well then the addition of a garage that could have more of an impact on the value of your property than it would out in the suburbs. Keith Weinhold (00:04:53) - The garage does not count toward the square footage of a property because that's considered unfinished space. And your prospective tenant? They might not know that fact about the square footage. So that's something for you to keep in mind when you're advertising a home with a garage for rent. Now, older houses, they're more likely to have a detached garage is its own separate standalone structure that's built near the house. But you would have to walk outdoors in order to get from the house to the detached garage. In fact, the home that I grew up in and that my parents still live in in Pennsylvania has a detached garage. Their home was built around the year 1915, so more than 100 years ago, and my parent's garage also didn't have an automatic garage door opener for most of my life. I remember the big yank up that you'd have to make on the heavy door. So when my mom was about to back out of the garage when she was going to take me somewhere, what I would do is I would stand outdoors until she backed out so that I could open and then close the door by hand and then get in the car. Keith Weinhold (00:06:06) - Gotta get those legs under it and enjoy one deep squat there, Well, one reason that old houses have garages often detached from the rest of the home is for risk of gasoline explosion. That's because back 100 years ago, gas was stored in the garage because gas stations were yet to be invented. So you've got this trail of detached garages left behind in older neighborhoods, and some people still prefer a detached garage. Now there's a way for you to get more rent income if you're renting out a single family home with a detached garage, and this isn't always going to be feasible based on how the property's set up. But the way to do it is for you to get an off site tenant to rent your garage. Oftentimes, the renter of your single family home, you know, they just don't have as high of an income as someone does that lives in an upper crust neighborhood that might have a lot of toys to store their, be it a boat or an antique car, or even an RV, perhaps. Keith Weinhold (00:07:13) - Well, that off site renter in the better neighborhood, you know they're going to pay you to store their cars or their other stuff in your detached garage In that case, your rental home and garage would have two separate tenants, and you will enjoy more overall rent income than if one tenant was renting both the home and the detached garage. So what you really want to learn is you do your research though, is what laws cover the renting of a garage or a storage space because they typically fall outside the jurisdiction of landlord and tenant laws. But you need to verify that depending on your state or your area. Sometimes running a garage is the equivalent of renting a warehouse space, and the rules can be different when it comes to payment issues or other problems. And when you realize that some garages can even have dirt floors, you can see how different it is than a living space. Now, even if you're thinking about renting your garage to an offsite tenant. Most of the time making garage upgrades, it's just really not worth it. Keith Weinhold (00:08:19) - But note that I said most of the time. On the other hand, if you can make it marketable, maybe you need to do something smaller, like add an automatic garage door opener if it doesn't have one, and then you'll have to run the numbers to see if that is worth it. Now, one mistake that I made out of property, it wasn't that first ever seminal fourplex that I owned, but the second fourplex that I owned there in that building, each tenant had a small, simple one car attached garage, and then as each four plex unit went vacant, I went in and painted the inside the walls and ceiling of all four garages with a fresh coat of paint, and I would learn later that was not a good use of my time. It didn't help me get any more in rent. No tenant is really even going to stay longer for fresh garage paint, but frankly, I'm just not a handyman. I don't know how to fix anything. So one of the few ways that I knew how to add value, I thought was rolling a paintbrush over the inside of garage walls like I know how to paint and not much else replacing a faucet. Keith Weinhold (00:09:29) - Whoa, that right there. We're getting into, like, intimidating territory. Okay for me. In any case, duplexes in fourplex, they can often have garages, especially newer ones. And I think I mentioned to you here on the show before that I once owned an eight plex. It was a little quirky. It had a small single attached garage that was kind of on the end of the building. So eight units and just a one car garage. And actually this is a good example because those tenants, they paid about $1,500 for their unit, so none of them could really swing it. None of them could afford to pay an extra $400 for the garage. So again, the way to solve that is rent to a more affluent off site tenant. That's what I did. And I got 400 bucks. Now, understand something. When you're driving a neighborhood or you're looking on Google Maps, at times it can look like a home has a two car garage because you're only looking at the widths of the garage door. Keith Weinhold (00:10:29) - But that can really be a three car garage because on one side, the garage bay goes two cars deep, so you can't always tell how many cars a garage can hold just by looking at the width of the garage door. One reason that developers in Hoa's actually like garages that are too deep is that way. The driveway is more narrow. When driveways are more narrow, that means there's less asphalt and more green space in neighborhoods. Now, in some places, it doesn't matter too much if the garage is full of stuff and you have to park in the driveway, but in a cold, snowy place, it really helps to park cars inside the garage. So garages are typically more valuable to residents in areas that have real winters. In an apartment building, it can help to have assigned spaces for tenants. When I bought apartments, I've always loved it to my property manager to figure out the space assignments and rental property. Upgrading and resurfacing parking areas is another money loser. Now, we don't want to be slumlords, but the truth is repaving and re striping a parking lot that might look nice. Keith Weinhold (00:11:44) - You might do that. but the reality is that it will get you practically zero extra rent. Not a good ROI. Well, that's a take on garage's past and present. What about the future of garages and parking areas when it comes to the future? And this harkens back to episode 13 of this show. Yes, that's when I discussed driverless cars, also known as autonomous cars. Back in January of 2015, nine and a half years ago. Well, when autonomous cars become popular, which many expect will still happen, it's likely that fewer people are going to own cars at all. They will just have a car subscription. The autonomous car will pick you up and drop you off, and more people will convert their garages into living space like another bedroom. If that does indeed eventually happen. But autonomous car adoption has hit roadblocks since episode 13 of this show back in 2015, and that's generally because autonomous cars keep having accidents. Although Waymo is perhaps the one company that's made more headway lately, you're seeing their autonomous taxis in use in some cities right now. Keith Weinhold (00:13:03) - Currently, a car spends 95% of its life being parked, but garages, parking lots, and parking garages are all poised to be less useful when fewer people own a car. Instead, these autonomous cars are just going to drop you off, pick you up, and then constantly stay moving. Stay out on the road rather than park at all. EVs are a factor here to electric vehicles. They can be thousands of pounds heavier than the average gas powered vehicle, and experts out there are warning that the extra weight from EVs that could cause older parking garages to collapse unless steps are taken to buttress those structures. I mean, that's a problem. If geotechnical and structural engineers didn't design EVs on older parking garages decades and decades ago parking lots, they have definitely fallen out of favor among some, but they are still building lots of them. Critics say that to have to build minimum parking spaces on new projects, well, that hinders new housing construction, and also encourages people to drive rather than take public transit parking lot. Keith Weinhold (00:14:18) - Critics. They also argue that parking lots and garages, they fill up precious urban real estate with these sort of soulless, concrete eyesores, making cities more sprawling and less convenient. And you tend to see this more in cities west of the Mississippi River. In the east, you have more cities on gridded street patterns that are more dense because they were laid out and developed before cars took over and sprawled so many cities, but with as many changes that autonomous vehicles could bring to the parking world and make things like car ownership less important and car parking less important, I sure would ask a lot of questions before I invested in any sort of parking related real estate. Today we've been talking about real estate in the micro so far today. Garages and parking surely will pivot to the macro as we discuss an asset that's minted not printed. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold, you're listening to episode 510 of get Rich education. Listen to this. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group Nmls 42056. Keith Weinhold (00:15:36) - They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation. Because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire. With leverage, you can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending group.com. That's Ridge Lending group.com. And your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Keith Weinhold (00:16:50) - Hundreds of others are text family to 66866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Robert Kiyosaki (00:17:08) - This is our rich dad, poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith wine old and there is I respect Kate is a very strong, smart, bright young man. Keith Weinhold (00:17:26) - It's terrific to welcome into the show a man with decades of investment analysis experience that we can learn from. He's the executive editor of Gold Newsletter, and you might know him as host of America's longest running investment conference, the famed New Orleans Investment Conference. Hey, we haven't shedded in a minute. Welcome in Brien Lundin. Brien Lundin (00:17:48) - Right? To be able to keep it has been a while too long. Keith Weinhold (00:17:51) - That's right. And now you and I each span the real asset world. I'm a real estate guy. You spend a lot of your work in teaching over there on the gold side. And we both intersect with the general economy. And, you know, Brian, I think of the general economy is having a number of abnormalities. Keith Weinhold (00:18:11) - Is it always does, but actually many normality to I mean, I've commented that there's actually relative normalcy in the fed funds rate and even mortgage rate levels. If you look at it historically, also home price appreciation rates, in rent appreciation rates, they're all close to historic norms, although the aberrations are probably more interesting to talk about. What are your thoughts on the economy's general direction? Brien Lundin (00:18:37) - Yeah, you know, it really is weird. We think about today's interest rates and how high they are. And throughout human history, the natural level of interest rates have hovered around 6%. That's kind of what it's always been for thousands of years. So what we went through over the last 16 years or so was a really abnormal period, and even going back a decade or so before that. So yeah, it looks seems like interest rates are at normal levels. What is at abnormal levels, however, is the level of debt that we have today. And and that's been created after over four decades of ever easier money, ever since Volcker killed off inflation in the 1970s and started lowering rates, we see that whenever there was a recession, the Federal Reserve had the same prescription every time it lowered interest rates, and then it would try to raise them back, but could never get past the midpoint of the previous range before another recession would come back, or the markets would throw some kind of a fit in. Brien Lundin (00:19:40) - The fed would then start easing again. And if you look over time, if you plot or draw a line at the bottom of every one of those interest cutting cycles, see that those bottoms of the cycles get progressively lower and lower. Till 2008, they hit zero. And then they tried to normalize it got up to 2.5% on the Fed's funds fund rate, and then had to go right back to zero at Covid. So the lesson to me is that things might seem normal if you look at the grand sweep of history, but they're anything but normal right now, and the debt loads that we have are so high they preclude anything resembling a normal interest rate. And in fact, my contention is that interest rates have to be below the rate of inflation. In other words, the currency has to depreciate at a faster rate than you're paying interest on these debts, or the whole house of cards collapses. So that's actually, while not good for the fiscal health of the US or other developed economies, it's actually good for the kind of tangible assets, real assets we are talking about real estate, gold, silver, monetary metals, even commodities. Brien Lundin (00:20:52) - And, you know, everything across the board as far as tangible assets. Keith Weinhold (00:20:56) - Yeah, we look at the long term history of interest rates 5 to 6% if If you go back hundreds of years or even thousands of years is a historic norm. The fed funds rate is now at about 5.3%. But yeah, I think what you're talking about is we seem to have a decreasing tolerance for what are really normal rates. Nothing abnormal about the rate. All that was abnormal was the rate of increase. And you know, one thing that I think about with the economy, Brian, that maybe people don't talk about enough. Is this labor shortage that we have? I mean, it is difficult to do get anyone to do my landscaping. Last year I stayed in a hotel where when I checked in, there was no human being at the check in desk. It was automated checking. Then last month, I stayed at a hotel where there was a human at the front desk, but they told me that there was not going to be any housekeeping during my state. Keith Weinhold (00:21:46) - So the reason that I bring this up is that a chronic labor shortage that spells entrenched upward pressure on inflation, because you have to offer higher wages to lure in workers and higher wages paid mean higher consumer prices, higher rents, more inflation and persistently high rates to combat that. Brien Lundin (00:22:07) - Yeah, absolutely. And you bring up a whole nother factor that very few people consider as demographics. You know, the fertility rate in the US is below the replacement rate. It's about 1.7 now, and it would have to be like 2.1. And as they say, demographics is destiny. We're not the only ones by any means. Japan went over the demographic cliff long ago. We're following all the other developed nations are as well. And in 20 or 30 years the global population will be falling. That brings about a lot of other pressures and real estate. Obviously you have, you know, the baby boomers are going to be downsizing if they can find something to move into. Besides a retirement home, had a decent mortgage rate. Brien Lundin (00:22:50) - You know, we have so much overhang in real estate that's sitting out there and locked up by the current interest rate. So yeah, it's an interesting dynamic we're in right now. And personally I think it's all just a result of the Federal Reserve and all these other monetary mavens whose PhDs I want to pull all these levers on the economy. And they have unintended consequences in every one of the policies that they undertake. And we're in one right now. Keith Weinhold (00:23:20) - We've got both inflation and a scarce supply of property that just keeps floating property values higher despite higher mortgage rates. And one place that the high inflation is often reflected is in the price of gold. Gold is up more than 20% year over year. And one thing I want to ask you about here, with regard to gold and the fact that we have this debt that you brought up earlier, Brian, is a real problem. When we look outside the US, the world's biggest economy is by far China. China has been dumping US treasuries, meaning basically that they're no longer buying our US IOUs so they no longer want our debt. Keith Weinhold (00:23:59) - And instead, China and other nations are increasingly parking it in gold. Now, is that one of the reasons that gold has surged? Brien Lundin (00:24:07) - Yeah, it is the primary reason. Or, you know, one of the primary factors why gold has surged this year in particular. And it's a weird mix of buying. This year. We saw the gold price start taking off like the 1st of March. And it was for the first six weeks or so. It was literally a relentless rise, not a down day. Setting new price records every day. And it took us a while to try and figure out or to figure out where the buying was coming from. And as it turns out, it was the result of continued buying by central banks renewed buying to an even greater degree by the people's Bank of China, and also some domestic demand from China. And that's something we had never seen before. We'd never seen Chinese investors and savers buying gold on the way up in a price trend. They usually bought on a price downtrend trying to get a bargain, but now they were following the price up. Brien Lundin (00:25:06) - So that contributed to everything and the factor that we had expected that did not come about in the first half of the year was a fed pivot. You know, if you look back in December, yeah, the markets are pricing in 5 or 6 fed rate cuts in 2024. And that kept getting postponed. And that was expected. I expected in most of the other analysts expected the beginning of fed rate cuts to really drive the price up higher, but it kept getting postponed. That big factor is still ahead of us. I think the markets are going to start pricing that in in a couple of months. And so what all that central bank buying and Chinese buying is done is while we were waiting for the fed to pivot in that big factor, it went ahead and added $300 to the gold price and got us into a new trading range so that when the fed pivot does hit, we're lifting off from a much higher level. So it's a good time, I think, to be an investor in gold and related assets. Brien Lundin (00:26:07) - I think it's also a good time to be involved in real estate and a lot of other tangible and real assets, as. Keith Weinhold (00:26:13) - Well as real estate investors we are interested in that interest rate direction. And, you know, if the US is continually finding themselves in a position where they're wondering, well, hey, if not China and others will, then who in the heck is going to buy our debt? And now you? I think the listener you can ask yourself in the same way, if you're trying to get your friends to give you a loan, How do you entice your friends to give you a loan? You would offer them a higher interest rate in order for them to give you a loan. So with that in mind, Brian, is that what the US has to do in order to entice foreign bondholders in the same way, meaning then debt rates would tend to be held high? Brien Lundin (00:27:01) - Very interesting point there, Keith, because getting back what I was saying, how these PhD economists are pulling all the levers on the economy, the lever they're about to pull is to start lowering rates again, because they recognize these debt loads, they recognize the possibility of a recession, and that if there is a recession and tax receipts fall, then the debt load is going to accelerate even further. Brien Lundin (00:27:26) - So they feel that policy right now is very restrictive. And they're going to start lowering rates at some point. They have to. But the debt loads being what they are, however you have on the other hand, the bondholders are, which you would hope would be the buyers of the Treasury securities, and they will look and see the potential economic slowdowns. They had the potential for higher inflation and start demanding higher returns on their yields. So there is a tension there. We saw that develop last October, November timeframe and a few months ago when we saw Treasury yields rise at the same time that the dollar index rose versus other currencies and gold was rising, which was a weird kind of strange bedfellows there that typically gold does not rise when interest rates are rising and the dollar is strengthening. But they were all going up together, and that happened a bit last fall as well. To my mind, that is a reflection of safe haven buying. You know, typically we think Treasury yields fall when they're safe haven buying because everybody's going into treasuries. Brien Lundin (00:28:36) - To me that was reflective of safe haven buying because the markets were really concerned about the fiscal future for the US and other developed countries. So they were going to the safety of the dollar, the safety of gold and demanding higher yields on treasuries. That would be more commensurate with the kind of inflation rate that they saw ahead. But it's been a weird mix of buying a weird mix of economic developments, and I think it all argues toward big money getting more and more into gold because of the uncertainty that lies ahead, and the really the extraordinary nature of the current economic situation to the world we find ourselves in now. Keith Weinhold (00:29:21) - I did not realize that there is less sensitivity to higher gold prices until I just learned that from you a few minutes ago. So that's really interesting about potential momentum in the future price of gold. And we talk about the future price of gold. We think of that through a supply and demand lens, much like we think about what's moving real estate prices today. Have we hit peak gold, meaning that there's less and less of it to pull out of the ground? Brien Lundin (00:29:49) - All of the trends in that respect actually favor gold and that we have reached peak gold production as around 32,300 tonnes a year. Brien Lundin (00:30:00) - Interestingly, a third of that level is being purchased now by China between the people's Bank of China and Chinese citizens. So a good bit of that is taken off. But I'm not a big proponent for the validity or the impact of supply and demand for gold, because it is monetary demand that really drives the price of gold. It has no utility, virtually no utility and industry. It is purely a monetary metal. So when people are concerned about the future purchasing power of the currency, they buy gold and they drive the price up, and that buying on the margin really sets the price of gold. And I think we're about to enter one of those periods where gold really plays catch up for long sweeps of time. You'll see the gold price doesn't do much until something happens. Things get bad to a certain degree where people really start to worry about their purchasing power, and then gold makes a huge catch up move. Really, in the early stages of that kind of a catch up ketchup move, I believe. Brien Lundin (00:31:06) - I think we're entering a period that would be akin to the 1970s and the 2000, where the price of gold has historically gone up anywhere between five and a half and eight and a half times over during these kinds of secular bull markets. And I think we're in one of those periods right now. Keith Weinhold (00:31:25) - Five and a half to eight x. Brien Lundin (00:31:27) - Yeah. If you look at the fact that there's only been three bull markets in gold since 1971, when it actually became, you know, an investable asset or commodity and not money. So 1970 to 75 was a bull market of 76 to 1980 with a bull market. And really, 2000 to 2011 was another bull market run. And each of those instances, each of those three bull markets, gold went up from 25.6 to 8.2 times from the lows. And this market we're in now, the low is about $1,040. So if the price of gold goes up trading 5.6 and 8.2 times, you're talking about 6 to $8000 gold price at the end of this cycle, wherever and whenever that takes us. Brien Lundin (00:32:17) - And of course, you know, we're up around 2300 and change right now. So that's a good move ahead. Lots of potential. And it's not just where the price of gold goes, but all the associated assets worth it, like mining stocks and the like are going to do, I think, very well over the next few years. Keith Weinhold (00:32:36) - Yeah. People know gold is the classic inflation hedge. But to your point, it has a lot to do with catching a wave. If you think the real long term diminished purchasing power of the dollar is 3 or 4% over time. Well, you don't see gold go up gradually at 3 or 4% per year for several years. You tend to see it do little or nothing, and then it has this big catch up phase, like those periods of time that you talked about. When we talk about physically holding on to gold, you know, it's cool. It's one of those type of investments where if you do hold it yourself, there's no login or password to access your goal that is physical, intangible. Keith Weinhold (00:33:10) - And you know, Brad, one thing that a lot of gold people often talk about is a positive attribute to holding gold is that it has zero counterparty risk when it's yours. No one can take it from you. But does it really have no counterparty risk? Because I think about if a person wants to hold physical gold, well, if they outsource it to a third party vault or a bank safe deposit box, then the counterparty risk is there. But if they hold it onto themselves and store it in their own home, which I don't know if that's a good idea, but if they choose to do so, well then the counterparty risk is the thief. So I think gold is a great way to store wealth, but is there really zero counterparty risk associated with gold? Brien Lundin (00:33:48) - Well, from that standpoint, there's never a zero risk. There's never a zero risk. When you step out of your door in the morning, either, you know, there's always some risk. You can mitigate the risk. And it reminds me of of what I tell people when they're really new to the sector is there are two reasons to buy gold. Brien Lundin (00:34:04) - One is as insurance and one is as an investment. And insurance is what you need to worry about right away because you're insuring against something you know is going to happen. If you feel like 3 to 5 years, the dollar's purchasing power, it's going to be much less than it is today. I think we can all agree in most likely is then by buying gold today, you lock in today's value of the dollar because gold will make that up, and perhaps even more so, it will protect you against that depreciation. So you can ensure your wealth by holding some physical metals. And I think that's the most important thing you can do, at least initially, is get silver and gold. Now, as far as storing it, a lot of people can store enough gold in their house to gain a good bit of insurance against whatever their wealth is. And by that, you know you will have to invest in a safe. Don't tell anybody about where it is and a good alarm system. And if you haven't and a location where you have a good police force, then you're talking about 20 minutes that somebody's going to get in your home before the police come and knocking, and hopefully they can't find the safe, much less get into it in that amount of time so you can do it in your house to some degree. Brien Lundin (00:35:16) - You can store it elsewhere, but there are important considerations there. They're very respected storage facilities and the like. You don't want to store it in a bank because one of the things you're insuring against is a bank holiday, thanks to like you to store it there either, but you can find respected institutions to store it. I recommend people don't put all the eggs in one basket and store it with a number of institutions, or as many as they can practically do. But yeah, it is important to own the metals, you know. Otherwise you're going to lose from here. On the day that you decide not to buy gold and silver to protect your wealth from that day on, you're accepting a rate of purchasing power depreciation that we know is considerably more than what the government says it is, and is historically high to begin with. Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) - I generally think it's a good idea to own at least a little gold if you have trepidation about buying gold. Think of it this way in a way you're not buying gold, You're transferring some of your prosperity over into gold, which has had lasting value for millennia, across cultures and across generations. Keith Weinhold (00:36:28) - And for some reason, I think a lot of people my age and younger that they don't own any gold. I would imagine that 90% plus of people, I think the statistics are out there. 97% of Americans don't own any gold. And maybe you feel like you don't understand gold and you don't want to own what you don't understand. But you could purchase this a 10th of an ounce of gold for under $300. And you know, by buying just a little bit, you begin to get a vested interest in this stuff. So with that in mind, Brian, how much do you think one should allocate and in what form should they make their purchase? Brien Lundin (00:37:02) - It's interesting. There have been studies for many years showing that the highest risk adjusted return you can get in a diversified portfolio with about 5% of your wealth, or your investing portfolio allocated to go to heaven. Those same studies done that are indicating more like 10% or more. It's to the point that you sleep well at night, whatever makes you comfortable. Brien Lundin (00:37:27) - But you know all of those studies back test it and they look back and see how gold and a portfolio meshes with the six, the classic 6040 mix of stocks and bonds etc.. But what we've seen over the last 12, 14 years is that post the 2008 great financial crisis is that all of these asset classes have become more and more positively correlated because everything's dependent on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. So all of the correlations have started to trend toward one, where they all rise and fall together in unison. Because everything, again, is just depends on monetary policy and the flow of liquidity from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. So that fact alone argues for even a greater holding in gold, because all of that portends greater and greater inflation, greater monetary accommodation, and the kind of thing that gold insures against. So the way to look at gold as insurance is not quite like home insurance. You know, you buy home insurance, you pay the premium every year in case your house catches on fire. Brien Lundin (00:38:38) - But you really don't expect your house to catch on fire. With gold. You're buying insurance. You're paying the premium, perhaps just once, and you're insuring against something that you know is going to happen, that the purchasing power of your dollars are going to depreciate. So if you have a significant cash balance in accounts, you might as well put it into precious metals and lock in the current rate before it gets the purchasing power of the dollar depreciates even further. Keith Weinhold (00:39:06) - That is a good point with gold as money insurance from the standpoint that with your homeowner's insurance and your landlord's insurance policy, you need to pay a premium annually. You potentially only need to pay that once upfront when you purchase your gold, and there's typically a spot price differential to overcome. Well, Brian, you are the host of America's longest running investment conference, which is founded on championing American's right to own gold. The New Orleans Investment Conference. It really feels like there is a touch of prestige when you're there. I can speak to that personally because I've attended it at least three times in the past. Keith Weinhold (00:39:47) - It's coming up in November. I hope to attend again this year. You've got some illustrious speakers there. Tell us about this year's New Orleans Investment Conference. Brien Lundin (00:39:58) - Yeah, it is our 50th anniversary. You know, I think it's the oldest investment conference in the world today and longest running. And we do have that legacy, that prestige of being somewhat gold oriented. We're actually covering a good bit more real estate lately, but we really cover a lot of the macro picture macroeconomics. We have some of the leading thinkers come to our vet every year and a great audience as well. Very highly qualified, very successful investors. This year is up 50th. So we have another wonderful roster of speakers. We have Jim Grant coming, George Gammon, James Lavish, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Britt Johnson, Abby Gilbert, Adam Taggart, the list goes on and on. Rick Rule, Peter Boockvar, dozens and dozens of top minds. And, you know, we kind of alluded to it in this talk, but these are really strange and interesting and dangerous, extraordinary times that we're living through right now. Brien Lundin (00:41:02) - And it is amazing to me, having been in the business for 9 to 40 years now, seeing these kinds of periods come and go. And it seems that when they do happen, we get this kind of underground media that arises, and people who really bring in losses come to the fore to comment on what's going on and provide really valuable insights. And after all the years I've been in this business, I know who really contributes value, who the best thinkers are, and I'm getting them all to come to New Orleans. As I have to say, I'm a big fan of all of our speakers. I think they are absolutely extraordinary, and we are so confident that you will find our event to be worth many times the cost of attending, that we have a money back guarantee. If you don't think it does, if you don't think it's worth many times what you paid for, we'll give you registration feedback. So it's very few events that can offer a guarantee like that. And I think you would agree with me that you have to be there to really experience it. Brien Lundin (00:42:07) - And it really is just an extraordinary experience. Keith Weinhold (00:42:11) - Yeah, I can't imagine anyone not getting a multiple on their investment with attending the conference. You know, one thing that you do really well there at the conference, Brian, besides just listening to all those speakers that you just mentioned, you also have panel format discussions where sometimes you can learn more when you're listening to a conversation than you can when you're listening to a presentation. You have both choices there. Then if you prefer you want to break, you can go across the hallway to where the exhibit hall is and do some learning and meeting people over there. And then you also have these breakout sessions where you go upstairs into small rooms and learn from presenters in just the niche that you think most interests you or that you want to learn more about. So there's really good variety there. Brien Lundin (00:42:54) - Yeah, it's kind of a time tested format. It's different than most conferences you'll find out there, but it's worked well for us for 49 years, and our attendees seem to appreciate the unique format that we have and the ability to learn. Brien Lundin (00:43:09) - And it really is information almost overload. There's so much of value from these speakers. If you are intellectually curious, if you are a serious investor, if you enjoy an intellectually stimulating environment in a destination location, this is really the place for you. And you know, I can go on over and over again for as long as we have time for and more to say talking about it. But the best advertising we do are people who word of mouth from people who have come. And I would encourage anyone who is considering coming to the New Orleans Investment Conference. Number one, this is our 50th anniversary. It's going to be a very special year. But number two, find somebody who's been before. Talk to them about it. And I think you'll get excited about attending this year. Keith Weinhold (00:43:56) - Each year it is at an excellent location. It's at the New Orleans, Riverside Hilton and Bryan Terrace, those November dates for the event and then how one can attend. Brien Lundin (00:44:07) - Yeah, it's November 20th to 23rd this year, so it's the week before us Thanksgiving week. Brien Lundin (00:44:14) - So it's it doesn't interfere with that holiday. It's kind of a good little slot there. And people can learn more by going to one New Orleans conference.com. Very simply New Orleans conference.com. Keith Weinhold (00:44:29) - All right. It's been great catching up on the state of the economy, real estate inflation, interest rates, gold. And thank you so much for putting on this terrific conference for the benefit of every interested investor. It's been great having you back on the show. Brien Lundin (00:44:43) - Wonderful to talk to you again, Keith, as always. Keith Weinhold (00:44:52) - Oh, yeah. Bright, inarticulate thoughts from Brian, as always, when he and I discussed those related factors of inflation and interest rates. I mean, this is such a germane discussion because, like he brought up, there seems to be this increasing propensity for all asset classes to rise or fall together. Like nearly every asset class is near an all time high right now. I'll need to research the incidence of this some more so that it's not just anecdotal, but the Fed's decisions. They seem to increasingly float up or knock down just about every investment class almost simultaneously. Keith Weinhold (00:45:35) - Real estate stocks, gold, crypto commodities, collectible toys, even nearly everything. And when you're a real estate investor, you are already investing in commodities and metals, and you have direct ownership of those. Now, not so much precious metals in your real estate, but we're talking about items that are built into it, like aluminum and steel and copper. They probably exist in your properties. Well, their prices go into the replacement cost of your property, and they are a reflection of your real estate portfolio's overall value, too. Coming up here on future episodes of the show, it will be the inaugural appearance of the King of Commercial Real Estate here on the show. Also, there seems to be still a mainstream aversion to all debt types, and I suppose it finds me in the position of being real estate's debt proselytizing. Well, coming up on the show, I am going to ask and answer the question for you is any debt worth paying off? Which debts are good to pay down? Which stitch should be paid off, and which debt types do you want to keep, and which debt types do you actually want to get more of? What are the exact distinctions so that you know right where to draw that line on all the debt types that you hold on to. Keith Weinhold (00:47:00) - So coming up here on the show, is any debt worth paying off? And I am pleased to tell you that if you would like to meet in person, yes, you're going to have a chance to do that at the special 50th anniversary of the New Orleans Investment Conference. Now, I'm not sure that meeting me in person really brings any benefit to you or the event, but yes, I am attending in person in New Orleans. I haven't been there since 2021 and I want to return. Brian London really knows how to put on an event. There is a lot of macroeconomic talk there and you will hear more about both that and gold than you will about real estate, although I expect plenty of real estate investing information there as usual. Again, it's November 20th to 23rd, four plus months away. And the registration link that you can use for this is in today's show notes. I will also get it into the next newsletter for you. Big thanks to the wise and wonderful Brien Lundin today. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Keith Weinhold (00:48:03) - Don't quit your daydream. Speaker 5 (00:48:09) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. Keith Weinhold (00:48:37) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich education.com.
![[Abridged] Presidential Histories](https://ivyfm.s3.amazonaws.com/i320/952770.jpg)
When unemployment and inflation began to rise side by side in the 1970s, nobody knew what to do. Economic theory suggested it should have been impossible, and yet the numbers couldn't be denied. Stanford Historian Jennifer Burns, author of Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative, discusses how American presidents of the 70's tried and failed to curb stagflation, what led Carter to Paul Volcker, and how Volcker's medicine may have saved the economy, but doomed Carter's pregnancy in the process.Support the Show.
Ever wondered how the gears of mortgage banking truly operate behind the financial facade? Prepare to be enlightened as I bring you an exclusive chat with none other than Richard Christopher "Chris" Whalen, a vanguard in the financial sector whose career has been as varied as it is impressive. From his early days as a Volcker appointee to his pioneering efforts in founding Institutional Risk Analytics, Chris shares unparalleled insights that unravel the industry's complexity, forecast the future of banking indexes, and even tease an upcoming ETF launch. In our thought-provoking exchange, we navigate the tumultuous waters of real estate markets, dissecting the phenomena of surging property values in previously overlooked areas. With a critical eye, we scrutinize and challenge the well-worn narratives crafted by Wall Street, addressing the overlooked market abnormalities pre-pandemic, the Federal Reserve's policy impacts, and the liquidity crunch in aging bonds. We discuss demographic shifts and capital flows, while Chris illuminates the potential shift towards persistently higher interest rates, and the challenges that credit and interest rate experts face in an era rife with misleading narratives. We take an incisive look at the banking industry's hurdles, especially in the commercial sector where non-performing loans loom large, and the strategies of niche players like Bank OZK and the competitive dynamics of mortgage servicing rights ownership. Finally, we shed light on the resilience of certain mortgage providers, exemplified through a personal account of efficient customer service that won over sluggish competitors, and muse over the repeating patterns in business practices, promising to keep these enriching conversations flowing to keep you abreast of the evolving mortgage landscape. Connect further with Chris at Whalen Global Advisors https://www.rcwhalen.com.Connect with Bill Bymel and First Lien Capital:Linktree: https://linktr.ee/billbymelTo learn more, visit:https://billbymel.com/Listen to more episodes on Mission Matters:https://missionmatters.com/author/bill-bymel/
Car talks with Brandon Keys from Green Candle Investments to delve into the macroeconomic landscape of Q1 2024. The conversation spans a range of topics, from the impacts of Bitcoin ETFs, the challenges and ethical concerns around Black Rock, alongside the influence of market distractions and global perceptions on economic realities. Keys forecasts a steady growth in the stock and real estate markets due to sustained demand, coupled with a bold prediction of Jerome Powell's “Volcker moment” on maintaining interest rates until the last quarter of 2024.Topics discussed:trumpgreat depressionq1federal reservejeromeratesainvidiaouroborosm&asatsflowoperationtrumpreal estate100k18 dayscyclesstartup dayFollow the conversation for the ep on Stacker NewsZap Brandon on NostrFollow Brandon Keys on TwitterFollow Green Candle Investments on YouTubeRead Brandon's 2024 Macro PredictionsLearn more about the State of Bitcoin podcastLearn more about Green Candle InvestmentsFind Car on NostrFollow Car on SNZap Thriller on FountainThriller links:Subscribe to ThrillerSubscribe to Thriller podFollow Thriller Bitcoin on NostrFollow Thriller Bitcoin on TwitterFollow Thriller Bitcoin on YouTube & Zap.StreamAdvertise with Thriller
Mit Rüdiger Bachmann und Christan Bayer. Wir beginnen mit einem Werkstattbericht und reden darüber, wie Juniorprofessuren vergeben werden, dann natürlich über Subventionen und die Landwirtschaft, und außerdem war Rüdiger wieder auf der ASSA in San Antonio und hat Phillipskurven mitgebracht. Darin: Robert Solow, Paul Samuelson, BMEL: Agrarexporte, Philips-Kurve, Keynesianismus, Goodfriend, King: The incredible Volcker disinflation, Benigno, Eggertsson: It's […]
Recorded September 27, 2023 - Join us for the launch of the Korean translation of Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government, a memoir written by the late Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. This program features William R. Rhodes, CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors and author of “Banker to the World,” which includes a foreword written by Volcker, and insights from Christine Harper, a member of Bloomberg's editorial board, on Volcker's extraordinary life and legacy. From his early days working in the Treasury Department, to his time in the Federal Reserve navigating the high inflation of the 1970s and 80s, Volcker's thoughtful reflections on the importance of good government, stable finance, and stable prices continue to resonate in this new translation. This program is produced in partnership with Columbia University's APEC Study Center. For more information, please visit the link below: https://www.koreasociety.org/policy-and-corporate-programs/item/1716-keeping-at-it-the-quest-for-sound-money-and-good-government
"The U.S. dollar is supreme. It's the unit of currency that's used in trade... It's diminishing, but these things take a long time to change. There's no real substitute out there for it,” says John Doody, founder and editor of Gold Stock Analyst. He points out that the efforts from BRICS to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency with a new gold-backed currency are futile due to the rest of the world's reliance on the dollar for international trade. When it comes to inflation, he says “there's no way that Powell can do a Volcker and jack up rates to 20% to stop the inflation. The politicians won't take it anymore." The gold expert also shares an optimistic outlook about the precious metal, as Gold Stock Analyst celebrates its 30th year anniversary this year. "Gold has been the best-performing liquid asset I know of since 1971 when the price was set free. There's a 8% per year compounded growth rate. I don't know any liquid asset that's been that good,” says John. He also talks about a gold mining company that is a “multimillion ounce a year producer." Watch the video to find out the full details. ➡️ Watch Here
In this episode, host Jenny Lee, partner at Reed Smith, speaks with guest Jonah Krane, partner at Klaros Group, about the hottest topics in fintech regulation, including how regulators can be more innovative when drafting their regulations. They discuss the latest interagency guidance on bank-fintech partnerships, the CFPB's innovation office, open banking and consumer data access, and how the Volcker rule ended up being 1,000 pages. They also cover how a principles-based approach to regulation (e.g., UDAAP) is not light touch, but actually sets a high bar (relative to prescriptive standards). And they delve into the reasons why an outcomes-based approach to consumer finance regulation should prevail, addressing the constitutional, political, or other barriers that may stand in the way.
Get our newsletter free here or text “GRE” to 66866. Higher interest rates are cracking the economy—failing banks and failing commercial RE loans. With many expecting rates to go much higher, what else will break? Keith Weinhold, the host of the Get Rich Education podcast, discusses the current state of interest rates and their potential future trajectory. Jim Rogers, legendary investor with an estimated $300M net worth, returns. He shares his insights on interest rates and inflation. We discuss the impact of inflation on various asset classes, including real estate, and the potential for higher interest rates in the future. The conversation also touches on topics such as agricultural real estate, the oil market, central bank digital currencies, and the role of gold and bitcoin as alternative forms of wealth storage. Overall, the episode provides valuable insights into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors. Title [00:01:56] Introduction and overview of the current state of interest rates and market distortions. Title [00:05:03] Discussion on the unpredictability of interest rate predictions and the acknowledgment of inflation by Jerome Powell. Title [00:08:28] Explanation of the historical trend of interest rates, the recent rise in rates, and predictions for future rate movements. Title [00:12:09] Jim Rogers on Borrowing Money and Interest Rates Discussion on the benefits of borrowing money at low interest rates and the prediction of interest rates going higher. Title [00:14:27] Jerome Powell and the Possibility of a Soft Landing Questioning whether Jerome Powell can raise interest rates enough to control inflation without causing an economic crash. Title [00:18:41] Inflation, Interest Rates, and Real Estate Exploring the impact of inflation and interest rates on real estate investments and the potential risks for property owners. Topic 1: Agricultural Real Estate [00:22:21] Discussion on the opportunities in agricultural real estate due to erratic weather patterns and reduced yields in various crops. Topic 2: Oil Market [00:24:16] Conversation about the current state of the oil market, the decline in known reserves, and the potential for higher energy prices. Topic 3: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [00:26:04] Exploration of the proliferation of CBDCs and the implications of a digital currency controlled by central authorities, including potential restrictions on spending and increased government control. Title [00:32:06] History of Money and Gold Standard Discussion on the different forms of money throughout history and the transition from silver to gold as the basis for the US currency. Title [00:32:47] The Diminishing Value of the Dollar The prediction that the value of the dollar will continue to diminish over time and the suggestion to invest in real estate instead of saving in dollars. Title [00:33:33] Invest in What You Know Advice for investors to only invest in what they know about and not rely on advice from others, emphasizing the importance of knowledge and understanding in investment decisions. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/457 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Interest rates rose fast last year, but a lot of experts think that they're going to go substantially higher from today's level, including our guest today, who is a legendary investor. How much higher will rates go and what's driving them higher today on get rich education. Taxes are your biggest expense. The best way to reduce your burden is real estate. Increase your income with amazing returns and reduce your taxable income with real estate write offs. As an employee with a high salary, you're devastated by taxes. Lighten your tax burden. With real estate incentives, you can offset your income from a W-2 job and from capital gains freedom. Family Investments is the experience partner you've been looking for. The Real Estate Insider Fund is that vehicle. This fund invests in real estate projects that make an impact, and you can join with as little as $50,000. Insiders get preferred returns of 10 to 12%. This means you get paid first. Insiders enjoy cash flow on a quarterly basis, and the tax benefits are life changing. Speaker 1 (00:01:10) - Join the Freedom Family and become a real estate insider. Start on your path to financial freedom through passive income. Text Family to 66866. This is not a solicitation and is for accredited investors only. Please text family to 66866 for complete details. Speaker 2 (00:01:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. Speaker 1 (00:01:56) - Welcome to GRE! From Mount Washington, New Hampshire to Mount Whitney, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Whitefield and you are listening to Get Rich Education. Hey, it's great to have you back. Interest rates are not high today. They're just moderate by historic standards. But of course, the rapid rate of increases last year was faster than it's ever been in our lives. And that's what introduces market distortions. Today's guest is going to talk about that with us later. That's the legendary Jim Rogers. And it's public information that he has an estimated $300 million net worth. When Jim talks, people listen. When he was here with us in 2019, he was emphatic that interest rates were going to go much higher. Speaker 1 (00:02:43) - He was completely correct. And few others were saying that then. In fact, when he's with us here shortly, all recite the interest rate quote that he stated here on this show back then and get his forecast from this point on as well before discussing interest rates a quarter recently ended. So let's whip around the asset classes as we do here at times, because you need to be able to compare real estate with other investments. The first half of this year, the S&P 500 was up a fat 17%. I'm just running to the nearest whole percent here. The tech heavy Nasdaq index had its best first half of the year in four decades. Gold was up 6%. Oil was down 34%. Bitcoin up an astounding 84% the first six months of the year. And that's partly because it really bottomed out near the beginning of this year per Freddie Mac. The 30 year fixed mortgage began the year at 6.5%, and now it's up to 6.7 for real estate. Since it lags, we've got a realtor.com year over year figure. Speaker 1 (00:03:48) - The median listing price was up 1% to 440 K financial institutions aced their Fed stress test that they call it that measures how banks are holding up during a downturn. Q1 GDP was revised way higher than they previously calculated, so the economy is doing even better than many thought. And the number of Americans that are filing for new unemployment claims that fell the most in 20 months. So therefore, the economy is still hot by a lot of measures. Well, that puts more upward pressure on interest rates. Well, an interest rate that can be thought of as your cost of money, and they can even affect factors beyond the economic world. For example, in demographics, I mean, historically high interest rates, they've actually been a mild impediment to people's very migration and mobility. Understand the Fed's interest rate predictions and really all of their predictions have been awful, just awful. A long line of them. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's inflation is transitory. I mean, this is the latest notable one. He said that in 2021. Speaker 1 (00:05:03) - I mean, though, look on your phones weather app, you don't trust the weather forecast ten days into the future. So I don't know why we would listen so intently, even reverentially to what the Fed economists predict for the next month or the next year. I mean, the economy can have as many or more variables than the weather. I'm going to assume. And these people know nothing Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell. They know nothing but see, they act like they know. So I just sort of wish they'd say we don't know more often. And by the way, this is why I do not predict interest rates like virtually everyone else. I know nothing on that. I joke around and I say I will let someone else be wrong and go ahead and predict interest rates. It's really hard to do now. A little credit to Jerome Powell later on, though, he did acknowledge that they ought to stop calling inflation transitory. So I think the word transitory has different meanings to different people. Speaker 1 (00:06:08) - To many, it carries. Speaker 3 (00:06:09) - A time, a sense of of short lived. We tend to to to use it to mean that that it won't leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation. I think it's it's probably a good time to retire that that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean. Speaker 1 (00:06:26) - Another credit to Powell in today's Fed is that they'll tell you what interest rate decisions they plan to make at upcoming meetings, which is certainly a welcome departure from the opaque Alan Greenspan where you needed to try to translate his Fed speak. So if the Fed rate goes higher, then you can generally expect other rates to go higher. The prime rate mortgage rates, credit card interest rates, automobile loans and more. Jim Grant. Who's been running the interest rate observer since 1983. He recently said that we are embarking into a long era of higher interest rates. He says that that's due to inflation and asset price speculation and of course rates wouldn't move up in some sort of straight line from here. During recessions, interest rates fall. Speaker 1 (00:07:14) - Well, in that case, if you had recessions during a longer term up spell, where you'd have is higher interest rate lows in a recession. Now, starting in 1958, something strange happened in America. In a recession, prices did not fall into many. This marked the beginning of the age of inflation. That was 65 years ago. So you're pretty used to that. If there is a recession, prices don't fall. All right. Well, after that period, rates went up, up, up until they peaked in 1981. And then they went down. Rates fell from 1981 until 2021, and now they have begun to rise again. Well, because artificially low rates that were set to deal with Covid, because they're still recent, I mean, many people have this sort of muscle memory of zero zero interest rate policy. Maybe you do, too. And it was an all you can eat buffet table of credit. And that buffet table was open for business for ten years. Well, now that we've hiked up the Fed funds rate from 0 to 5%. Speaker 1 (00:08:28) - All right. Well, back on June 28th, Powell said that more restrictive policy is still the COB because they're continuing to fight inflation. And that includes the likelihood of quarter point interest rate hikes at consecutive meetings and two or more increases by the end of this year. Now, our frequent macro economist contributor here on the show, Richard Duncan. He says there is an unusual divergence between weak credit growth and solid economic growth. And that was probably brought about by the surge in savings from people's government checks during the pandemic. Well, if that divergence persists, then the Fed might have to raise rates even more than the half percent plus that they suggested is necessary by the end of this year. And Duncan says that the stock market is not prepared for the Fed rate to go from 5% today up to 6%. And if it does, the stock market could be in for a painful correction in the months ahead. Now, to my point about interest rates being hard to predict, some economists think that rates will generally fall after this year as well. Speaker 1 (00:09:34) - So some people see it that way, but I think there are more now predicting that they will rise rather than fall. As the legendary investor that predicted that interest rates were going to go way higher when he was back here with us in 2019 is he joins us soon. We could have some challenging audio quality on this remote to Singapore, but people really hang on what Jim has to say. That's next. I'm Keith Wild. You're listening to episode 457 of Get Rich Education. With real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. Genevieve is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB real Estate. Agree that's GWB Real estate agree Jerry Listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. Speaker 1 (00:10:49) - They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. Hi, this is Russell Gray, co-host of the Real Estate Guys radio show. And you're listening to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold. Don't Quit Your Day Dreams. Today's guest is one of the most esteemed celebrated and legendary business moguls, investors and financial commentators of our time. He co-founded the Quantum Fund, one of the world's first truly global funds. He's created his own commodities index, his own ETF, and he is a popular author of a great many books. Welcome back. For your third appearance on Jim Rogers case. There's no reason to go into all that. I'm just a simple Earth. That's why people like listening to you, because you rather plain spoken on what some people deem to be some pretty complex concepts. Speaker 1 (00:12:09) - So it's good to have you here joining remotely from where you live in Singapore. You were here with us in both 2019 and 2021 and in 2019 here on the show you said and I've got the quote right here, if you can borrow a lot of money for a long period of time at low interest rates, rush out and do it right now, That's what you said. That was prescient. And also in 2019 here on the show, you said, and I quote again, interest rates are going to go much, much, much higher over the next few decades and it is going to ruin a lot of people. And here we are today. So what are your thoughts with regard to interest rates and inflation here? Jim. Speaker 4 (00:12:52) - You make many mistake. Please. It's made many, many mistakes and I'm sure hope I live long enough to make many, many more mistakes. Yes, interest rates are up. They're up substantially. It sent them, but it is not over yet. Interest rates will go much, much higher because we have friend, not just we, but central banks everywhere have printed huge amounts of money. Speaker 4 (00:13:17) - And whenever you print lots of money, inflation, college interest rates go higher and the usual amount of money inflation gets very high. And that always leads to central banks having to raise interest rates too high level because they don't know what else to do. In 1980, before you were born, interest rates on central US government Treasury bills, 90 day Treasury bills, interest rates were over 21%. Gosh, that's not a typo. 21% because inflation was out of control and we had to take drastic measures, which meant you have to do something like that again. Speaker 1 (00:13:58) - That would be interesting. So to bring us up to where we are right now, the federal funds rate is basically gone from 0 to 5% since last year. Mortgage rates rose from 3% to 7% just last year alone. And a lot of nations are jacking up interest rates. Turkey just decided that they are going to raise interest rates 6.5% all at once. And some people don't think that is enough. So here we are. I mean, you talked about what happened about 40 years ago. Speaker 1 (00:14:27) - Can Jerome Powell engineer a soft landing? Does he have any chance of doing that where he can raise rates enough to quell inflation but yet not crash the economy? Speaker 4 (00:14:37) - No, of course not. First of all, in 1980, America was still a creditor nation. Now with the largest detonation in the history of the world. Yeah, that's staggering. And they go up every week, and the amount of money that's been printed is beyond comprehension. I don't know how they can solve this problem without really getting drastic and taking interest rates to very high levels back in 1980. The Federal Reserve had the support of the president. The president told him to do whatever you have to do because the head of the central bank was all over. It was a smart man. He knew what he had to do, but he made sure he had political support before he did it. Now, the president did not get reelected because Volcker did what had to be done. We don't have as smart a central bank head now as we did then. Speaker 4 (00:15:31) - And the amount of money that's been printed is overwhelming. And America's debt with the largest detonation in the history of the world and we were a creditor then. So there are things that are different. So he would be worried if I were you. In fact, I am worried, so I'll leave it to you. But I'm more. Speaker 1 (00:15:50) - Well, that's right. Carter was a one term president. We'll see if Jerome Powell ends up breaking too many things. If Biden only ends up being a one term president, then as well, whether it's his fault or not, oftentimes the onus could fall on him. You bring up all this debt, the greatest detonation in the history of the world. And maybe the first time you and I spoke back in 2019, I don't know what our debt was then. Maybe it was 25 trillion. Now it's more than $32 trillion. Maybe just as concerning. More our debt to GDP ratio is about 121%. So I guess really what I'm getting at, Jim, is how will we know that things break and things are already breaking in a world of higher interest rates with failing banks and more stress in the commercial real estate market. Speaker 1 (00:16:37) - So what else is going to break? Speaker 4 (00:16:40) - Jimmy Carter did say to go do whatever you have to do and I will go you. I doubt Biden would say to the central bank, do whatever you have to do without or you. And I doubt if the central bank Powell, the head of the central bank, now really comprehend what he's gotten us into. You know, he kept saying all along, oh, don't worry, everything is under control. The secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, he's got Ivy League degrees, also kept saying, don't worry, everything is under control. We know what we're doing. We do have different people this time, not many Paul Volcker's that comes along in history. To me, the indications are going to get worse. They will not solve the problem until we have a very, very serious problem. I'm not optimistic. Having said that, if I'm not selling short or anything else at the moment, I'm worried about the markets in a year or two. But at the moment, since nobody seems to understand what they're doing at the Reserve or in the presidency, we can have okay times for a while, but the ultimate problem gets worse and worse and worse unless you deal with it. Speaker 1 (00:17:56) - I don't know whether the economy has been slowed down enough yet or not. So in the midst of higher interest rates, we continue to create an awful lot of jobs. But there's a greater body of work that shows a lot of these jobs are just jobs that have recovered, that were lost in the pandemic. Speaker 4 (00:18:13) - The economy is not bad in the US, economy is still strong. You mentioned office. You'll have a lot of jobs. ET cetera. Yes, we have inflation, but inflation is not as bad as it was in the 70s. And you look out the window and everything seems okay. At the moment. I'm just worried about what's coming down the road because I know that some throughout history, if you print a huge amount of money, you create big problems. Speaker 1 (00:18:41) - We are avid real estate investors here directly investing in real estate. And as we have this chat about inflation and interest rates is real estate investors, ideally we would have low interest rates and high inflation. However, those two are positively correlated. Speaker 1 (00:18:57) - You typically have both high interest rates and high inflation or low interest rates in low inflation. That positive correlation. Speaker 4 (00:19:05) - Inflation always in the history has led to higher interest rates for a variety of reasons, which I'm sure you understand. If history is any guide, interest rates are going to go much, much higher eventually. And then you know very well I interest rates are not good for property, not good for real estate investors. They never have that. Even if you don't have any big debt and you don't have that problem or mortgage problems or anything, maybe your neighbors do. And if your neighbors have problems, that means their property prices will go down and that's going to affect you because you're nearby and everybody will say, oh, that property is collapsing. What about teeth? And teeth can say, Oh, no, don't worry about me. I don't have any debt. They'll say, okay, you don't have any debt, but we can buy property in your neighborhood. Very cheap because your neighbors have problems. Speaker 4 (00:20:06) - That gives you a problem. Speaker 1 (00:20:08) - That's right. Fortunately, Americans have plenty of protective equity in their properties despite these higher rates. You know, residential real estate here in the second half of 2023 is still doing just fine, probably because there's still a scarce supply of residential real estate. You've got more people working from home driving demand for residential real estate. But of course, office real estate has probably been hit the worst, crunched by high interest rates and the work from home trend both. So really that's where we've seen so many of the cracks in the real estate world, especially around the office space. Where else might we see cracks as interest rates continue to go higher like you think they will? Speaker 4 (00:20:46) - Well, again, throughout history, when interest rates go higher and it attracts investors and money and people take their money out of property or stocks or whatever with their money and say yielding is you can buy the Treasury bills at 21%. That's attractive to a lot of people. And that's, you know, risk free and it's very high return. Speaker 4 (00:21:12) - So as interest rates go higher in attracts money from other investment classes in other areas, it's very simple. People are not that dumb. We know that if we can get high interest rates safe, they will do it. And we have to take a risk and the stock market or something else for that spike to do. Speaker 1 (00:21:33) - Sure. Higher rates just incentivize a few more people to be savers as they can now safely get above 4% in these online bank accounts today, where they are getting pretty close to 0% just a couple years ago. We talk about real estate investment. Oftentimes here we talk about improved property on a piece of land. But of course, the more traditional use of real estate is growing crops on a piece of land. And I know you've been a long time agricultural investing enthusiast and a thought leader in agricultural real estate investing. What are your thoughts about agricultural real estate, since in these past few years really we've seen more of these erratic weather patterns that have resulted in things like reduced peach yields in Georgia and reduced ores yields in Florida. Speaker 1 (00:22:21) - Something else, Jim, we've seen reduced coffee yield in Panama, that last one, that's sort of a fractional ownership investment that we featured on the show here. Fractional ownership investment in coffee farm parcels in Panama. That's created some problems with their yield. Of course, you can see that reflected in the low levels of the Panama Canal as well that looks to threaten the economy. But what are your thoughts about agricultural real estate in this erratic weather that we've had? Perhaps that's an opportunity if that's reflected in lower agricultural real estate prices? Speaker 4 (00:22:52) - I'm optimistic about agricultural land prices because, you know, for a long time, nobody wants to be a farmer. The average age of farmers in America is 58. The average age in Japan is 66. Mean, I can go on and on. Although the highest rate of bankruptcy in the UK is in agriculture. So agricultural disaster worldwide for a long time and disaster usually leads to great opportunities. If you know how to drive a tractor, if you should go buy yourself some farmland and become a farmer, if you like getting hot and sweaty every day, it can be a very exciting way to live. Speaker 4 (00:23:38) - I just see I know from history when something gets very bad for a long time, it usually leads to a great opportunity. Speaker 1 (00:23:48) - Well, you are so experienced in commodities trading in the number one, the most traded commodity in the world is oil. And it seems that the oil price really isn't very high now, especially when you adjust that for all the inflation that we've had the past few years and of course the oil market and the oil price drives the prices of so many other downstream products. So what are your thoughts with regard to the oil market and where we're headed there? Jim. Speaker 4 (00:24:16) - I know that known reserves of oil have peaked and are in decline just about worldwide. Does it mean it has to continue going up? But unless somebody finds a lot of oil quickly in accessible areas, the price of energy undoubtedly will go higher. The price of energy is going to stay high. Oil and natural gas, whether we like it or not, and I know we don't like it, but unless you wave a magic wand and you know, in Washington, they keep doing things that they don't help the supply of energy, they they damage it because they put restrictions and controls on energy. Speaker 4 (00:24:55) - So unless something happens somewhere in the world pretty quickly, energy is not going to be cheap. Speaker 1 (00:25:01) - Renewables like solar and wind may be the future, but oil has a high degree of energy density that a lot of those renewables still don't. We're talking with legendary investor Jim Rogers. He's joining us from Singapore. You talked about all this dollar printing, which has created inflation. And in order for central governments and central banks to get more control over people, discussion with Cbdcs central bank digital currencies has really percolated quite a bit in the past few years here. And with your international perspective, your world view. I'd like to know what your thoughts are on Cbdcs, whether you see a proliferation of it, where you see it starting for those that aren't aware of it. Central bank, digital currencies. That gives a government central control where all money is digital issued by the central authority, where your money can be stored digitally on your phone so that a central authority like a bank or a government can have control over you. Speaker 1 (00:26:04) - For example, if your local economy is sagging, well, the government could tell you through your cbdc, your central bank, digital currency, for example, that you need to spend 30% of your income within a ten mile radius or else your money expires. Or this would give central authorities power to do something like say, you know, there's a curfew so you can't spend any of your money after 9 p.m. or this is where they could push ESG, environmental, social and governance agendas through targeting your spending or targeting your spending through diversity, equity and inclusion and getting more control that way through Cbdc. So what are your thoughts with the proliferation potentially of Cbdcs, Jim? Speaker 4 (00:26:44) - We're all going to have digital money in the future, whether we like it or not. It already happened and China's way ahead of it. You can't take a tax in China with money. You have to have your digital money. Your own money. Yeah. And the ice cream in China with money. So it is happening. And nearly every country is working on computer money. Speaker 4 (00:27:06) - Let's call it whatever you want to put your money. And governments love computer money is cheaper. It's easier. They don't have to transport it all they love. But mainly they love it because they've complete control over all of us. As you point out, they know everything you do. They'll call you up one day and say, Keith, you've had too much coffee this month. Stop drinking so much. Whatever it is, they love control and they love knowledge. I don't, but they do. So this is the world we're coming to. None of us will have money in our pockets except on our own. And yes, that's the new world. It's not far away in 2023. Okay. Anything that's not good for the citizen, Washington will catch up very fast if it's good for them. So no money is coming. Speaker 1 (00:28:00) - Yeah. Let's hope the cbdcs don't turn up the coffee for anybody. This might make one wonder, you know, what can they do about it is you see more cbdc sentiment building in other nations with them potentially doing something like this. Speaker 1 (00:28:15) - Is it a smart thing then for someone rather than store dollars, to instead borrow dollars by having loans on real estate? Or is it better to just completely be out of the government system of currency issuance or at least park more of your prosperity outside of the government system of dollars and euros and pesos and riyals and yen, and instead into a non governmental alternative like gold or Bitcoin. Would that be a better path? What are your thoughts there? Speaker 4 (00:28:44) - When the government says, okay, now this is money, they're not going to say, okay, but if you want to use that money over there, use their money. We don't care. Governments love control and they love Monopoly, especially when it comes to money. So there may be competing types of money that you dollars now anyway. I guess you and I could swap gold coins or seashells or something if we wanted to. Most of the people in the US use government money and that's the way it's going to be. Whether we like it or not, the government has the monopoly. Speaker 4 (00:29:22) - They have the guns. And if you can say, All right, I'm not going to use government money, I'll say, okay, but you're not going to be able to pay your taxes, then you're money. You're not going to be able to buy a driver's license or pay your other fees with other money. You're going to have to use government approved money. Speaker 1 (00:29:42) - Well, the government tried to shut down ownership of gold like they did previously or Bitcoin, which would be unprecedented. I'm talking about the United States government, especially in this case or other developed economies. Speaker 4 (00:29:54) - But when the US took away the right to go in 30s, that was gold was the basis for. Monetary system. It is much, much, much more important to the world economy. Then gold is not that important in the world's economy now. It's important, but so is right. So a lot of stuff. So I doubt if they will take gold away again. I don't see them outlawing digital money currency unless it becomes very successful and competitive to the government. Speaker 4 (00:30:30) - Then they'll do. They always have. Speaker 1 (00:30:33) - Bitcoin's market cap is still under $1 trillion, but increasingly you do have more and more politicians that own Bitcoin and there are a few advocates for Bitcoin there in Congress. So if that's the change you want to see, maybe you want to vote in people that are promoting the holding of prosperity outside of US dollars really by being Bitcoin advocates in Congress there. That's one thing that you can possibly do. But we talk about gold and silver. You know, I really like the fact that it is scarce. Just like Bitcoin has scarcity. There will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. And of course gold and silver have a finite supply. Speaker 4 (00:31:14) - Well, but first of all, please remember many digital currencies, not Bitcoin, but many have already disappeared and gone to zero. Speaker 1 (00:31:23) - And there are some Bitcoin critics out there that say something like, well, there have been more than 20,000 cryptocurrencies. So what makes Bitcoin any better? Well, I think the fact that a lot of these cryptocurrencies that have little or no utility or mean coins, so if they come by and then they die, I don't think that should diminish Bitcoin in its utility in any way. Speaker 1 (00:31:42) - Just like there have been over 20,000 stocks in history. And if a new stock comes by that doesn't have any value or any fundamentals and it fails, it doesn't diminish the market cap leader Apple one bit at all. So I don't think it's a valid comparison to say that just because a new cryptocurrency comes and goes that shouldn't diminish or knock Bitcoin at all, just like it shouldn't Apple, if a flashy new stock comes by and dies? Speaker 4 (00:32:06) - Well, throughout history, money has come and gone. People use seashells, people use cows, People use lots of things, glass beads all over the world. You know, the US was founded on a silver standard at 1792. Silver was the basis for the US currency that later changed to gold. Speaker 1 (00:32:27) - What's so interesting, Jim, written in our United States Constitution, it stated that gold and silver shall be money, but of course it's not. In Nixon completely departed the last vestige of that in 1971. Yet there was no amendment written to the Constitution to supersede it. Speaker 1 (00:32:47) - Gold and silver shall be money when it comes to currency and how one measures the prosperity in the United States. It is the dollar. We know it's going to continue to be the dollar for some period of time yet, and you can't get too many certainties in investing. And really the second near certainty we can get is that the dollar is going to continue to diminish in value. So that's why rather than save it, we borrow for real estate. Jim, wrap it up here. In this world of higher inflation, though, it's come down in higher interest rates where you tend to think they will keep going higher. What should one do, maybe especially a younger person today, You know, any direction that you would have for a younger person, a younger investor, or maybe that's even investing in themselves and developing skills themselves. So what are your thoughts? Speaker 4 (00:33:33) - They're all investors. Young, old, whatever should invest only in what they themselves know a lot about. If you want to be successful, don't listen to somebody on the TV or in the magazine or even on the Internet. Speaker 4 (00:33:48) - You know your program. They should invest only in what they know about you. Listen to somebody and she said, Buy X and you buy x and x goes up. You don't know what to do because you don't know why you bought it. Right? X goes down, you don't know what to do because you don't know why you bought it. So if you want to be successful, just stay with what you yourself know a lot about. You might say that's boring. Be boring If you want to be successful, be boring. You know, invest in what you know. And I cannot tell you how important that is for all investors, young or old. Speaker 1 (00:34:31) - Yeah, well, to sum it up on rates, Jim Rogers said that governments have debt, therefore governments will keep printing. So then governments will raise rates to keep inflation in check. Remember, just last year, a lot of people didn't think that Powell would have the guts to raise rates so high. Well, he sure did. Who else did I ask about how high interest rates will go? Will, I asked you on our get Recession Instagram poll, the majority of you think. Speaker 1 (00:35:01) - That the Fed rate will exceed 6%. And again, it's about 5% now. All right. Well, then with mortgage rates around six and three quarters now, perhaps they'd go up to about 8%. But of course, mortgage rates don't track the Fed rate in lockstep. They more closely follow the yield on the ten year note. Now, this is really interesting for real estate investors when inflation is low. So interest rates, well, in those environments, real estate people seem to love that. But you know what? Those two things pretty much cancel out. Well, since we're big borrowers as real estate investors, you get less benefit from low inflation and more benefit from low interest rates, just like high inflation and high interest rates cancel out because now you've got your debt being debase faster and a greater interest expense to pay. So really it's a wash either way. If for some reason real estate investors seem to be more concerned about high interest than they are thinking about the benefits of the high inflation and in fact, real estate investors, hey, we can totally have our cake and eat it too, because when inflation goes high, well, you can stay fixed on your low interest rates. Speaker 1 (00:36:16) - And then when inflation and rates go low, you can refinance. So savvy real estate investors then in fact benefit from the inflation and interest rate dance. This kind of tango that they do where they stay together. If you enjoy the show here each week, do you mind doing something as a give back that takes less than two minutes of your time? Leave a podcast rating and review. The fastest way to do this is just perform a search. Either search how to leave in Apple Podcasts Review, or how to leave a Spotify podcast review. I'd be grateful that helps others find the show. And we've got a bunch of terrific episodes coming up for you here on Gray, providing you with free content and reliably showing up for you every week. I would greatly appreciate your podcast rating in review. Again, it's easiest to simply search how to leave an Apple Podcasts Review or how to leave a Spotify podcast review until next week. I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit, dude. Adrian. Speaker 5 (00:37:24) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Speaker 5 (00:37:28) - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively. Speaker 1 (00:37:52) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building Get rich education.com.
Best-selling author Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast for the third time to share his views on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and why the intervention — especially the Federal Reserve's new emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program — is the biggest bailout in history. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. 0:00 Intro 1:00 Reaction to SVB, Signature Bank failures 1:54 The mistake Silicon Valley Bank made 4:12 Bond Math 101 4:45 The Fed is between a rock and a hard place 4:52 Huge unrealized losses on the bond portfolio at SVB 6:35 There already was leakage 9:33 Friday's press release from the FDIC 12:50 Global ripple effects of SVB failure 14:50 Other banks had similar problems 17:08 Biggest bailout in history 23:00 Executive stock sales 24:11 There would likely have been lines at banks 25:00 The biggest crybabies were the billionaires 26:15 The banking system is effectively nationalized 32:00 This was risk management 101 39:46 The Volcker mistake 40:50 Inflation 42:30 You'll see the Fed expanding the balance sheet 43:30 Name your poison 44:10 25bps at the next Fed meeting is the most likely scenario 44:55 This is the no-drama Fed 45:45 ECB 46:10 It's a global economy 47:00 Panics have two stages 47:30 Credit Suisse 52:10 A road to ruin 54:35 Each bailout was bigger than the one before 55:30 A front based on confidence 58:30 Deteriorating trust in institutions 1:07:27 Gold
Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane discuss Fed Chair Powell returning to congress for day 2 of the hearings. Bond yield inversion has reached the deepest level since Volcker suggests a hard landing. The Boston housing market is in a stalemate right now, sellers aren't selling and buyers aren't buying.
McAlvany Weekly Commentary Volcker Pivot: 17% to 9%… Back Up To 19% Party Till You Die! Markets Premature/Post-Inflation Celebration Give Me My Money – Large Real Estate Funds Have “Gated” Liquidation Requests The post Do You Remember The Volcker Pivot? appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
In this episode we answer a trio of emails from MyContactInfo and a piece de resistance from Eric. We discuss why complicated financial products are bad for you, Peter Bernstein's books and what Paul Volcker had to say about gold, and spurious histories of money. And we celebrate our inanity and insanity with Eric.Links:Power of Gold book: The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession: Bernstein, Peter L., Volcker, Paul A.: 9781118270103: Amazon.com: BooksLink to Campbell Harvey article: Gold, the Golden Constant, and Déjà Vu (cfainstitute.org)Peter Zeihan video about monetary systems: Global Currency: The Dollar Ain't Going Nowhere - YouTubeSupport the show
The Federal Reserve has responded to runaway inflation with a spike in interest rates. The real cost of such measures is primarily paid by the working class, who are caught in a double-bind of rising prices of goods and falling wages. As TRNN has covered extensively in the past, the real culprits of rising inflation are multinational corporations and financial institutions, who have opportunistically raised prices, recycled billions of dollars in stock buybacks, and benefited from massive federal bailout packages. Why is the Federal Reserve squeezing workers, and how should the inflation crisis really be solved? Anders Lee interviews CUNY School of Labor and Urban Studies Assistant Professor Samir Sonti on behalf of The Real News to discuss how historical examples like the 1979 Volcker Shock can help us understand how the Federal Reserve will respond to our contemporary situation.Anders Lee is a writer, podcaster, comedian and organizer. He is a co-host of Pod Damn America and was previously a correspondent on Redacted Tonight.Samir Sonti is an assistant professor at CUNY School of Labor and Urban Studies. He previously served as a special advisor for the presidential campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders.Help us continue producing radically independent news and in-depth analysis by following us and becoming a monthly sustainer: Donate: https://therealnews.com/donate-podSign up for our newsletter: https://therealnews.com/newsletter-podLike us on Facebook: https://facebook.com/therealnewsFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/therealnews
Alfonso – also known as MacroAlf – joined Adam and Mike to discuss his most recent report entitled “Yes, But When Recession?” Our conversation covered: Alf's experience managing a $20B multi-asset book at a global bank Experience launching an independent macro newsletter for greater freedom of views Benefits of interacting with central bankers, regulators and senior officials at the bank Currently focused on recession – when and how bad will it be? Economic, social and market impacts of recessions How recession might change the Fed's reaction function Powell and other central bankers questioning the benefits of QE and whether Fed may have a different reaction function this time Exploring the pros and cons of QE Why banks lend, and why they didn't want to lend over the past decade of QE? Powell's focus on Volcker and implications for policy trajectory Expectations for a second leg down and the 2000 – 2002 analog What happens in bear markets after Fed pivots? Prospects for a longer, grinding bear market Impact of high returns on cash competing with low returns on real estate and other risk assets Character of stock market bottoms in a cyclical downturn Market indicators of recession and inflation risk using Alf's Volatility Adjusted Market Dashboard Negative credit impulse signaling recession in Q2 2023 Impact of rate of change vs level of credit given enormous surge in bank reserves in 2020 Leading indicators suggesting recession in late Q2 2023 Housing market and Sahm Rule implying recession in Q2 2023 Expectations for returns on stocks, bonds and other assets over the next several years *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Multipolarista host Ben Norton is joined by historian Aaron Good joins to discuss how oil is used as a geopolitical weapon, analyzing the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, Saudi-US alliance, petrodollar, Nixon shock and Volcker shock, and Washington-orchestrated 2014 oil crash. VIDEO: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Cq8z3Cwgk6Q Check out the playlist for our US Empire and the Deep State series: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDAi0NdlN8hNArLl765PXe8tsTKmOciGL Follow Aaron on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Aaron_Good_ Support Aaron's podcast American Exception at https://patreon.com/americanexception
In this week's episode, Dan welcomes back four-time Stansberry Investor Hour veteran Marko Papic. Currently, the geopolitics and macroeconomics specialist serves as a partner and the chief strategist of asset manager Clocktower Group. Before that, Marko was the senior vice president and chief strategist on geopolitical strategy at global investment research firm BCA Research for nearly a decade. He has also worked at Stratfor, one of the world's top geopolitical-intelligence platforms. Marko last joined us in late January, shortly before the Russia-Ukraine war exploded. Today, he's turning his attention to someone "much more relevant and powerful than Vlad[imir Putin]"... chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. We realize the topic of our central bank's next steps might seem worn out. After all, it has been splashed across the top news headlines daily for most of 2022. But the Fed's actions are massively influencing the global financial system right now. As Marko says... Literally everything that is going on in the world is kind of irrelevant if J. Powell continues to be very hawkish. When the Fed decides it has had enough, everything else can start mattering again. Until then, it's really just all about them. Marko explains the Fed setup that could set off "the most calamitous recession in the history of the United States," and he shares his preferred indicators for a recession. He also discusses the Paul Volcker versus Arthur Burns debate... two former Fed chairmen who defined their careers by tackling inflation. Will Powell follow in Burns' dovish footsteps or take a more uncompromising stance like Volcker did? Finally, Marko highlights a future threat to the markets: the 2024 presidential election. As for which side he's on, he elicits some chuckles from Dan with his candor... I don't care, right or left... I bathe myself in nihilist indifference. My job is to forecast. It doesn't matter.
Another hot inflation reading this week underscores the importance of the US Federal Reserve's campaign to tame decades-high increases in consumer prices, with many market observers evoking the memory of a similar effort by the central bank's larger-than-life former chairman, Paul Volcker. One key to Volcker's success in the 1980s, achieved through interest-rate hikes and control of the money supply, was setting the appropriate expectations in the financial markets, according to Christine Harper, editor of Bloomberg Markets magazine and co-author of Volcker's memoirs, Keeping at It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government. Harper joined the latest episode of What Goes Up to discuss her experience with Volcker, and what lessons learned from his time as Fed chief are useful today. “Psychology was really important,” she said. “He really understood the psychology of investors, the psychology of consumers and business people. And so much of what he did, and the inflation fight, was basically around changing the psychology.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bill English is a professor at Yale University, a former senior Fed staffer, and a veteran of the Bank for International Settlements. Bill joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Federal Reserve, recent Fed developments, and a paper he co-authored titled, “What If the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of Its Quantitative Easing?” David and Bill also discuss the Fed's recent low-inflation mandate, the QE effectiveness debate, and why we should and shouldn't be concerned about Fed balance sheet losses. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Bill's Yale profile Bill's Federal Reserve profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Related Links: *What if the Federal Reserve Books Losses Because of its Quantitative Easing?* by William English and Donald Kohn Macro Musings: *Donald Kohn on Fed Policy from the 1970s to Today* *Think of Powell as Volcker's Wannabe Second Coming* by John Authers
With global markets on the edge and investors concerned about a multitude of extant financial and potential political headwinds, Maggie Lake welcomes back Raoul Pal for today's Real Vision Daily Briefing. “Are markets breaking?” sounds hyperbolic. But U.K. debt is being re-priced as if it's issued by something less than a third-world country. And foreign-exchange markets “are presently screaming global depression, not recession,” as one prominent member of the FinTwit community put it. Maggie and Raoul talk about the global liquidity situation and how the Federal Reserve will respond to another mess of its own making. Indeed, as Raoul noted early Friday, “The central bank experiment of Volcker worship in a massively indebted economy is on its last legs in the coming month or two.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Cem is the Founder and Senior Managing Partner of KAI Volatility Advisors. He is responsible for firm-wide management, as well as its Head of Research and Risk Management. Cem triple majored in Economics, Policy Studies and English at Rice University and holds an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management. Follow Cem on Twitter https://twitter.com/jam_croissant Learn more about his company https://www.kaivolatility.com/ IN THIS EPISODE: 0:00 Swan Bitcoin promo 1:18 Born in London, lived in Turkey, grew up in Houston and Oklahoma 2:55 Family's immigration stories 4:22 Grandfather fled Bulgaria 6:16 Early interest in social sciences, parents were engineers 7:47 Founding Kai Volatility Advisors 10:23 Equity volatility 12:27 Macroeconomic analysis, dramatic inequality, distrust of system 21:38 Fixing inflationary problem, Federal Reserve chairs before Paul Volcker 31:09 Control inflation with real supply-side responses 34:43 Equality and fairness relative to growth 38:14 Muddling through a recession like in the 70's 40:35 Why the timing was right for Volcker's moves in the 80's 41:45 What is Jay Powell going to do? 42:21 iTrustCapital promo 43:08 Bitcoin Amsterdam and Bitcoin 2023 promo 44:13 Fold app promo 44:42 Rebalancing takes time, no shortcuts 48:41 Decoupling the US dollar from the gold standard in 1971 52:05 Dollar is threatened, countries de-dollarizing; fairness is naive 55:08 Are Bitcoiners naive? 56:00 First discovering Bitcoin in 2009/2010 58:40 Money is power; future of BTC 1:02:24 Utopia vs. innate desire to compete 1:06:51 "I think rates are going to go a lot higher" in next 6-12 months 1:14:18 Collapse in market will trigger a pivot 1:15:10 "Market is not the economy. Economy is not the market." 1:17:32 Opportunity in this environment 1:19:30 Investing in anything close to government: infrastructure 1:23:19 UBI: Universal Basic Income 1:25:15 Sticky double-digit inflation in the next 5 years 1:27:38 Fed pivot affecting tech stocks 1:29:07 Crises are good because they rebalance things and drive future growth Coin Stories is powered by @Swan Bitcoin the best way to build your Bitcoin stack with automated Bitcoin savings plans and instant purchases. Swan serves clients of any size, from $10 to $10M+. Visit https://www.swanbitcoin.com/nataliebrunell for $10 in Bitcoin when you sign up. If you are planning to buy more than $100,000 of Bitcoin over the next year, the Swan Private team can help. Swan Bitcoin is hosting this year's inaugural Pacific Bitcoin event designed to deliver two days of Bitcoin-only programming featuring top experts and celebrity Bitcoin fans. This unique event November 10-11 in Los Angeles will give you the ability to meaningfully engage the Bitcoin community & industry insiders. Visit https://www.PacificBitcoin.com/ for tickets. Use code HODL for 30% off your pass. BITCOIN 2023 will be the BIGGEST BITCOIN EVENT IN HISTORY held May 18-20 in Miami Beach. If you missed Bitcoin 2022 head to @Bitcoin Magazine for highlights of all the biggest events and panels. You can get an early bird pass for Bitcoin 2023 at a steep discount at https://b.tc/conference/bitcoin2023. Use code HODL for 10% off your pass. With iTrustCapital you can invest in crypto without worrying about taxes or fees. iTrustCapital allows clients to invest in crypto through an individual retirement account. IRAs are tax-sheltered accounts, which means all your crypto trading is tax-free and can even grow tax-free over time. The best part is it's totally free to open an account, and there are no hidden fees, monthly subscriptions or membership fees. If you open and fund an account you will get a $100 funding bonus added to your account. To learn more and open a free account go to https://itrust.capital/nataliebrunell. Fold is the best Bitcoin rewards debit card and shopping app in the world! Earn Bitcoin on everything you purchase with the Fold's Bitcoin cash back debit card and spin the Daily Wheel to earn free Bitcoin. Head to https://www.foldapp.com/natalie for 5,000 in free sats! OTHER RESOURCES - Natalie's website https://talkingbitcoin.com/ - Kai Volatility Advisors https://www.kaivolatility.com/ - Cem on Twitter https://twitter.com/jam_croissant ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories BTC wallet bc1ql8dqjp46s4eq9k3lxt0lxzh6f2wcu35cl6944d ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ FOLLOW NATALIE ON SOCIAL MEDIA Twitter https://twitter.com/natbrunell Instagram https://www.instagram.com/nataliebrunell Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/nataliebrunell ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ DISCLAIMER This show is for entertainment purposes only and does not give financial advice. Before making any decisions consult a professional.
In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Rob Arnott to the show to discuss value versus growth stocks, the yield curve and whether it's predicting or causes recessions, and why Rob thinks inflation will stay persistently high. Then Brent from SpotGamma is here to talk OPEX. Visit Research Affiliates: https://www.researchaffiliates.com Download Brent's Charts 📈📉https://bit.ly/3L13IFL ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/
Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following where we reflect on the ongoing instability in the markets and look back on the month of August. We also discuss behavioural biases and why we may need to distinguish between managed futures and trend following, an article by Quantica on the benefits of trend following and how it can without a doubt improve your portfolio. Lastly, we reflect on the annual event at Jackson Hole and the BIS talking about the challenges ahead, the 2% inflation target and how it can impact the economy if changed, the Volcker tightening cycle and the importance of narratives as well as an update on Jeremy Grantham's super bubble hypothesis and much more. ---- ---- Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website). IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate (here). And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/flavor (here). Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here). Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu (iTunes) or https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW (Spotify) so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on https://twitter.com/alanjdunne (Twitter). Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:01 - Summary of the week 09:44 - Industry performance update 11:46 - Reflecting on the month of August 16:13 - Alan's perspective on the Cliff Asness article 28:01 - The undisputed benefits of Trend Following 38:00 - Key takeaways from Jackson Hole 46:00 - Comment from BIS 49:45 - Are we leaving the 2% inflation target? 53:54 - Lessons from the Volcker tightening cycle 01:00:20 - Latest piece from Jeremy Grantham 01:04:23 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2022 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/ (Click Here) 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (Click Here) 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ (Click Here) https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/legal/privacy-policy/ (Privacy Policy) https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/disclaimer/ (Disclaimer)
The Federal Reserve plays a very important role in the economy. When things start to look uncertain, the central bank is tasked with stepping in to restore people's confidence in the economy. But how do they do it? On today's episode we dive deep on monetary policy and the role of the fed. |At this Summer School, phones ARE allowed during class... Check out this week's PM TikTok! | Listen to past seasons of Summer School here.
McAlvany Weekly Commentary Powell’s .75% increase: ain’t Volcker, but it’s somethin’ Europe deploys “anti-fragmentation” grenade China & Empire… Rolls out third aircraft carrier The post Everything Bubbles & Endless Summers… End appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
We are told that Paul Volcker led the Federal Reserve into the breech and bravely and knowingly raised short-term interest rates so as to bring about a recession and extinguish the 1970s Great Inflation. But according to Fed transcripts Volcker & Co. fell ass-backwards into recession.----EP. 247 REFERENCES----Monetary Policy Is All Talk All the Time, and Always Has Been: https://bit.ly/3xNg9A1The Myth of Paul Volcker and the Powerful Fed [Eurodollar University, Ep. 221]: https://youtu.be/9XqHyZOLiEcAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf-------THE EPISODES-------YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic:https://bit.ly/3LH8JlV---------THE TEAM---------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "Pretender" by Lazer Boomerang.------FIND THE TEAM-------Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPJeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiEmil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.comDavid: https://DavidParkins.com/Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.comLazer Boomerang: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPnl9BuBDKx8_uQ2xNy-djg"Pretender": https://youtu.be/YBb3y6FHxgM
I purposely wrote this week's Dividend Cafe before the CPI number posted this morning at 8:30 am ET. Lots of traders were getting in front of this late Thursday, and a market that had rallied up +2,000 points in the last two weeks was down -1,000 points in the last five days and is now down a lot as markets open Friday. We are in a period of short-term traders trying to front-run the Fed, but more particularly, trying to front-run those who they think are trying to front-run the Fed. What I mean is not as complicated as it sounds: The basic belief is that if inflation data looks worse, for longer, the Fed becomes more Volcker-like in their hawkish tightening, and that hurts risk assets; therefore, if we see a whisker of “more inflationary than expected” some will start selling, and we should sell before they sell. Well, good luck with all that. Today I am going to look at what could make this market get worse, not in a “traders are going to do this” kind of way, but in a real systemic, significant, macro kind of way. It will turn into a two-parter, no doubt. But let's look behind the headlines of the day, the CPI print of the moment, and the Fed actions of next week. Let's dive into the Dividend Cafe … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
(*Note: This is a Vintage Dangerous History Podcast from 2014, reissued on the public DHP feed for a limited time. Please cut the poor audio quality some slack!) Finally, we conclude our non-consecutive series on the history of the history of the US dollar with part 5, looking at the story of the dollar following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. (This podcast was actually recorded over the course of 2 commutes — the first half in the morning commute to work, and the second one in the afternoon commute home.) Join CJ as he discusses: How the ending the ‘gold window' in 1972 led to high inflation, which led to negative consequences (including some not purely economic) for society The approaches of the Ford and Carter administrations to dealing with inflation How, under first Carter and then Reagan, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker (appointed in 1979) used high interest rates to staunch (though not completely stop) the erosion of the US dollar's value in the early-1980s The reasons that the dollar still (mostly) operates as the world reserve currency despite its obvious flaws and vulnerabilities, including the meaning of the term ‘petrodollar' How things will go wrong, sooner or later, with this system, and how the remedy used previously by Volcker (high interest rates) could not realistically be used today by the Fed, even if they wanted to do so A few thoughts on ways to prepare for this eventuality Support the Dangerous History Podcast via Patreon or SubscribeStar. External Links US Debt Clock Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
© 2020-2025 Ivy Podcast Discovery LLC
