Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

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Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions. Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro. Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk. Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

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    • May 1, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
    • weekly NEW EPISODES
    • 42m AVG DURATION
    • 56 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

    The Conclave, Sinners, and Negotiation Tips

    Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2025 39:38 Transcription Available


    The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2025 43:39 Transcription Available


    This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond? Further Reading: What if There’s No Way to Stop Trump’s Approach to Power? from Ross Douthat at the New York Times Nate’s Silver Bulletin post about the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    China's Race to Dominate: Listen to Global Tech Wars

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 22, 2025 26:13 Transcription Available


    Here’s a preview of a new audiobook, Global Tech Wars: China’s Race to Dominate. For decades, China’s economic rise has been symbolized by its unstoppable force of low-cost manufacturing. Now, it’s the leading country in cutting-edge industries like artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, surveillance technology, and more. In Global Tech Wars, Financial Times’ veteran journalist James Kynge analyzes China’s rapid technological ascent and what it means for the future. If you like what you hear, find the full audiobook at Pushkin, Audible, Spotify, or wherever you get your audiobooks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027?

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2025 47:17 Transcription Available


    This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveals what he sees as the report’s central flaw. The AI Futures Project’s AI 2027 scenario: https://ai-2027.com/ For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 10, 2025 35:28 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress – do to intervene? And how should the average American react? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Ivy League Bows to Trump, Plus Protecting Your Genetic Data and Your Time

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 3, 2025 43:29 Transcription Available


    This week – after a quick check in on their March Madness brackets – Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s showdown with the Ivy League. Should schools like Harvard and Columbia do more to stand up to the President’s demands? Then they turn to 23andMe, which has declared bankruptcy. They discuss privacy and whether it’s okay to swap your biometric data for more convenience at the airport. Last but not least, they tackle the question of how to properly value your time. Further Reading: Kashmir Hill’s Your Face Belongs To Us Sendhil Mullianathan’s research on time poverty For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Group Chat Protocols, Bracket Updates, and thoughts on the WNBA

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2025 41:26 Transcription Available


    This week, Nate and Maria discuss The Atlantic’s bombshell report about how its top editor was added to a national security group chat, and get into why the most major security risk is never technology–it’s always people. Then, they give an update on their March Madness bracket contest, and try to figure out why on earth players have to wait until they’re 22 to join the WNBA. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    March Madness Bracket Extravaganza

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2025 42:03 Transcription Available


    This week, Nate and Maria talk college basketball. Nate explains how he made his recently-released March Madness model. Then, they compare their tournament brackets. Maria gets some help from Sacramento Kings GM Monte McNair, but also makes one bracket entirely based on vibes. Nate mostly sticks to his model, but makes a few surprising picks. Check out Maria’s brackets here. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    China's Best Moves, and How to React to a Dealer's Mistake

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2025 39:20 Transcription Available


    Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How should China respond as the US turns away from the global stage? What new opportunities do they have? Plus, both hosts weigh in on the poker controversy surrounding a recent big win… that was actually a loss. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2025 40:19 Transcription Available


    This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how Trump would act in the dictator game, and discuss the rationality of revenge. Then, they talk about the reboot of the infamous Fyre Festival, and why con artists so rarely reform. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Thinking Smart About Low-Probability Events

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 27, 2025 43:28 Transcription Available


    This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about how to consider extremely costly events that are fairly unlikely to come to pass? Then, they touch on the latest World Series of Poker drama and challenge each other to a game of Roshambo. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Trust and Facing the Unknown (with Rachel Botsman)

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 20, 2025 42:20 Transcription Available


    This week, Maria speaks with trust expert Rachel Botsman about her new audiobook How To Trust and Be Trusted. What is trust? Why, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, do we sometimes trust the wrong people? And what can a luxury hotel teach us about how to repair a trust that’s been broken? And – for Pushkin+ subscribers – Nate and Maria answer a listener question about learning to feel the difference between probabilities. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Trump's First Three Weeks: What Actually Matters?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 13, 2025 41:10 Transcription Available


    Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what those important things are. And, they follow up on their Super Bowl prop bet – were there tears during the National Anthem? (They disagree – weigh in below.) Plus, Nate updates us on his housing search, and Pushkin+ subscribers get advice about how to pick a doctor. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Air Travel, Alcohol, and How to Bet On a Coin Toss

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2025 43:34 Transcription Available


    Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of plane travel, and of drinking alcohol. Then, they debate whether the sharp money is on heads or tails in the Super Bowl coin toss, and make a very serious bet about whether the national anthem will move any players or coaches to tears. Plus, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the value of betting on underdogs for Pushkin+ subscribers. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Should You Learn Poker from ChatGPT? And Other AI Questions

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 30, 2025 46:51 Transcription Available


    In the wake of DeepSeek’s explosive entrance into the AI chatbot world, Nate and Maria talk AI strategy. At the national level and the personal level, what benefits does this technology actually have – and is it worth it? Plus, we tackle a question from listener Hugh about how to win big at his friendly, amateur poker night. Good luck, Hugh! For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Trump's Strategy: Distraction and Executive Action

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 23, 2025 48:26 Transcription Available


    What do the decisions Trump has made so far tell us about his strategy for his second term? And what strategic options do the Democrats have? Nate and Maria talk birthright citizenship, tech CEOs, memecoins, and pardons.And, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the status of their driver’s licenses. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Wildfires, Insurance, and Planning for Disaster

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2025 47:44 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria discuss the California wildfires. How do incentives in insurance markets drive decisions by homeowners – and by insurers? What’s the best way to make rational decisions about the disaster risks we all face?And they discuss a question from listener JM who asks what happens when the River and the Village mix it up in Washington? Further Reading: Colm Toíbin on the loss of Gary Indiana’s personal library in the Palisades fire An overview of California’s insurance issues from the WSJ For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Nate and Maria's 2025 Predictions

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2025 40:10 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria share their predictions for the year to come, covering everything from the price of Bitcoin, to the fate of President Trump’s cabinet picks, to whether Nate will wear skinny jeans. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Learning From Failure, Avoiding Regret, and Managing Risk with Restaurateur Henry Rich

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 2, 2025 45:16 Transcription Available


    Maria talks to her friend Henry Rich about how he’s managed to find success in one of the world’s riskiest industries: restaurants. Themes include learning from failure, accounting for ruin, and finding meaning at work. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Luigi Mangione, the Rise of Bluesky, and High-Stakes Chokes

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2024 41:17 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations. Risky Business will be off next week. We’ll be back with a new episode on 1/2/25. Happy New Year! For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting Decisions of 2024

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2024 40:19 Transcription Available


    What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024. Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener’s question about the expected value of learning multiple languages. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving Strategies

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2024 44:12 Transcription Available


    Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president's present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season. By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Vegas. RSVP to attend For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Get Happier, Help Others: Some Good Ideas About Giving

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2024 51:09 Transcription Available


    It's the season of giving: colorful paper and shiny bows, sure, and charitable giving, too. In this special episode, Jacob Goldstein, the host of What's Your Problem, gets smart about donating. Did you know that spending money on others makes you happier than spending money on yourself? Or that altruistic nerds have discovered four of the most impactful charities in the world (per dollar spent)? Have you ever wondered how poker players think about giving? Dr. Laurie Santos from The Happiness Lab, Elie Hassenfeld of GiveWell, and Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova from Risky Business talk about how to maximize your giving – and why you'll be happy you did. Link to donate: https://givingmultiplier.org/happinesslab Listen to The Happiness Lab with Dr. Laurie Santos Listen to Risky BusinessSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Maria and Nate's Guide to GTO Travel

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 28, 2024 42:50 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made. Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions. Do you have a topic or theme you'd like Nate & Maria to discuss in a future episode? Reach out to us at riskybusiness@pushkin.fm with any suggestions. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2024 38:50 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump's controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Will Trump Bring the River to Washington?

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 14, 2024 37:50 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what's next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event.  For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    How Trump Won

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2024 40:16 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    What to Look for on Election Day

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2024 31:21 Transcription Available


    On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he'll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out.  For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and Biden) Campaigns

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2024 42:56 Transcription Available


    What were the worst and best decisions of this year's presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.And of course, we spend some time looking at the model. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2024 45:55 Transcription Available


    Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in. Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign. Read More at Bloomberg.com:https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS https://bloom.bg/3X54rNPSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of the 76ers

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2024 48:29 Transcription Available


    This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2024 43:14 Transcription Available


    Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment.  Further Reading: The Big Announcement More on Thomas Schelling  More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Degenerate Gambler's Guide to the Election

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2024 43:30 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate's $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI.  Further Reading: Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin  The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from Bloomberg A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation from Poker Pro  Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House from Legal Poker Sites For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    How to Win Bets and Influence Elections

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2024 48:59 Transcription Available


    Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people's money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner's dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It's not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week. Further Reading: Charity Navigator  More on Betsy Paluck's research  Willy Nelson's discography  Dana Carvey's Biden impression from SNL For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting Rationally, and the Maine Nebraska model

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2024 44:33 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin's (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map.  For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2024 44:53 Transcription Available


    Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there's no plus-EV move. Further Reading: Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal? from the New Yorker For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Does Nate Trust His Model? Debates, Prediction Markets and Poker

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2024 38:32 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Calculating Risks in a Creative Life, with Brian Koppelman

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2024 48:14 Transcription Available


    Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when a risk is worth taking, how to offset risk with hard work, and the time he bet big on Billions. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Amazing Frauds, Faking Your Own Death, and the Latest on the Election

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2024 54:39 Transcription Available


    Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history's most compelling con artists: Sam Israel III and John Law. Risk-related lessons are learned. Further Reading: A Con Man Who Lives Between Truth and Fiction from the New York Times The Murderer, The Boy King, and The Invention of Modern Finance from NPR (featuring our EP Jacob Goldstein!) For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Kamala Edition: Taxes, Tariffs, and the DNC

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2024 40:23 Transcription Available


    This week Nate and Maria discuss the state of Kamala Harris' presidential bid, including taking a look at her first policy proposals on price gouging and taxes on tips.  For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Lessons from The River (Maria Interviews Nate About His Book)

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2024 43:08 Transcription Available


    Nate's book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong, and the year Nate bet a million dollars on sports. Check out the Risky Business YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskyBusinessShow For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Taking Risks in Business, Poker, and Life (with Bill Perkins)

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2024 40:38 Transcription Available


    Maria sits down with Bill Perkins, the legendary energy trader, to talk about his approach to risk in business, poker, and life. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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