View from the Peak

Immediately before our US-China Series Virtual Forum on China’s Semiconductor Vulnerabilities, a White Paper that was published earlier today by the Center of Strategic and International Studies or, more specifically, a Report of the CSIS Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward Taiwan titled Toward a Stronger U.S.-Taiwan Relationship. Led by a friend of US-China Series, Bonnie Glasser, “The focus of this task force is on U.S. policy toward Taiwan, which should be driven by a clear assessment of American interests. These interests include ensuring that Taiwan remains a secure, stable, healthy, resilient, prosperous, and innovative democratic society that is free from predation and coercion. It is also in the United States’ interest that Taiwan remains integrated into the global economy and continues to serve as a provider of global public goods.” Maggie Lewis of Seton Hall University was a member of the task force. She joined us on the panel to discuss this new era for US-Taiwan relations, especially in the context of China’s economic dependence on TSMC, which has been caught in the middle of the U.S. semiconductor embargoes of Huawei and other firms on the Entities List. Please register for the event above, and I have attached the White Paper. It provides extraordinary insights into the policy cross-currents that will face a Biden administration or will be unavoidable in the event of a second term for President Trump. Here is a synopsis of the intentions of the report. The focus of this task force is on U.S. policy toward Taiwan, which should be driven by a clear assessment of American interests. These interests include ensuring that Taiwan remains a secure, stable, healthy, resilient, prosperous, and innovative democratic society that is free from predation and coercion. It is also in the United States’ interest that Taiwan remains integrated into the global economy and continues to serve as a provider of global public goods. The first part of our Taiwan panel was dedicated to Maggie, and she explained the report and outlook for US-Taiwan-China engagement. Introduction – Maggie’s assessment of the CSIS report 06.35 The context of this report within the historical framework of the implied security guarantee 10.40 What are China’s / Xi Jinping’s intentions over Taiwan. 14.30 Taiwan is caught in the middle of a geopolitical struggle between its two biggest customers. How does Taiwan bridge this divide? 17.35 What do the next four years look like? Are semiconductor embargoes likely to remain under the Biden administration? 27.50 What do the next four years look like for the semiconductor supply chain? How do companies plan with such immense uncertainty? 31.20 What do the next four years look like for TSMC? 34.35 What do the next four years look like for the US-Taiwan-China relationship

US-China Series, the US-China Business Council and RWC Partners present a unique panel discussion on Chinese Listings in the United States. Moderated by Alison Schonberg, Claudius Modesti, a partner at Akin Group and Liza Mark, a partner in Shanghai at Haynes and Boone, walk us through an hour long presentation on the regulatory history and framework for Chinese companies to list at US exchanges. The reputation of Chinese company listings on US Exchanges has been tarnished by some high profile bad apples. Is it too much to ask for Chinese companies to have the same accounting standards as their peers? Equally, how can the US remain a bastion of free markets if companies are restricted based solely on origin?

On Thursday, September 24th, US-China Series and US China Business Council hosted a half-day virtual forum on the future of Chinese capital markets. We had panels on the RMB Bond Market, Global Macro Opportunities, Hong Kong's role in Chinese capital formation, and a fascinating discussion on the history and legality behind the future of Chinese listings on U.S. exchanges. # As fate would have it, September 24th was also when FTSE Russell announced that it would include Chinese government bonds (CGBs) to its flagship WGBI index. Estimates from Goldman Sachs predict that the eventual weighting will be 5.7%, which implies $140bn of inflows over the next several years based on the approximately $2.5tn of funds that are benchmarked to this index. Why should this matter to everyday investors? Most U.S. and European investors have tiny allocations to China, and few outside of the mainland have an exposure that reflects China's economic might. The global monetary policy response to COVID-19 has solidified the era of zero and negative interest rates, and this announcement shines a light on the key advantage of holding Chinese fixed income, which is yield. While the yield advantage that Chinese bonds have over the rest of the developed world didn't play a role in the decision by FTSE to include China, it is the critical narrative to the global investment community that is starved for high-quality sovereign returns.

Chemicals / Industrial Inputs: Key Catalyst for Supply Chain Operations panel for the joint US-China Series / US-China Business Council, virtual forum, Your Chinese Supply Chain: Complexities and Challenges. Held on September 10th. Moderator – Lisa Schroeter Ed Brzytwa- American Chemistry Council Jason Alexander - RSM Hun Quach - Under Armour

Agriculture – Realizing the Potential of American Agriculture It should be a golden age for American farmers. How does the US agricultural industry avoid being caught in the middle of a shifting geo-political landscape? Moderator – Doug Bell - EY Dr. Wendong Zhang – Iowa State University Margaret Myers – The Dialogue Mara Hvistendahl – Author of the Scientist and the Spy

Craig Allen, President of the US-China Business Council, and Paul Krake, founder of the US-China Series, interviewed the Co-Chairs of the House of Representative US-China Working Group, Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA2), and Representative Darin LaHood (R-I18). We discuss issues the bi-partisan objectives of the working group, strategic vulnerabilities, free trade and tariffs, and a slew of issues facing policymakers at this time.

US-China Series, in conjunction with WSCRC, hosted a panel on the ban of WeChat. We will discuss the rationale, consequences, legalities, and practicalities of the ban and what this means for users and the parent company Tencent. For all the attention that the proposed Tik Tok ban garnered with President Trump’s Executive Order on August 6th, the issues for corporate America, for Americans with connections to China as well as the for Chinese diaspora in the US run much deeper if they face restrictions on the use of WeChat, arguably, the world’s most influential app. With a user base of more than 1.2 billion people globally, it is omnipresent in China. For any company, domestic or foreign, operating in China, it is central to any marketing/commercial strategy. Craig Allen, President of the USChina Business Council, summed up the concerns of American companies by stating to the Wall Street Journal, “For those who don’t live in China, they don’t understand how vast the implications are if American companies aren’t allowed to use it...they are going to be held at a severe disadvantage to every competitor.” Paul is joined by Kevin Shimota a former WeChat executive and Nelson Dong, the Chair of the National Security Law practice and co-Chair of the Asia-Pacific practice of international law firm Dorsey and Whitney. Man Wang of WSCRC is the moderator.

Paul is joined by Tu Le of Sino Auto Insights for a discussion about the current exuberance surrounding the global electric vehicle markets. We do our best to put Tesla to one side and discuss the Li Auto IPO, the euphoria over Rivian, and we dive into the prospect of more established Chinese EV brands such as XPeng and WM. With the change of leadership at Ford, we debate whether there is any way for the OEMs to bridge the gap.

It’s time for a new approach to one of the central drivers of the 21st century. The US-China Series is a sequence of events designed to provide a forum for thoughtful debate and critical dialogue. The world’s foremost experts will convene to delve into issues like Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Bilateral Investment, Trade Policy, Health and Medicine, and National Security and Diplomacy to provide a sensible, wide-ranging and nuanced discussion on how to move forward. The future of the most important relationship of the 21st century is not limited to the Washington Beltway. Business leaders, policymakers, institutional investors, and academics from across the country are joining the US-China Series – all have a keen vested interest in solving critical issues. Only with a diversity of thought can true progress be made. This isn’t an intellectual exercise. This is about solutions for business and policy prescriptions for government. The US-China Series is about finding a new path toward constructive relations and engaging a wide audience. The benefits of peace and prosperity can only come through constructive dialogue between the US and China. To be sure, there are difficult questions ahead, but only with an innovative approach can we deliver meaningful answers.

Strategy Piece for June 6th

An Expert Series Podcast with Jude Blanchette, Head of the China Practice at the Crumpton Group in Washington. Our topic today is the dominance of Xi Jinping and the structural concerns that one man, authoritarian rule creates for China, both domestically and abroad. This discussion, which I believe is one of our best, looks at the current constructs of the Chinese Communist Party, the dismantling of leadership governance, the absence of a viable opposition and the prospect and consequences of a leadership challenge in the context of a this vacuum. Jude answers a question I have been struggling with for over a year now and that is how was President Xi able to achieve status as “ruler for life” , which is vital in the context of China’s long term political stability. We all must reassess our thinking regarding political risk analysis for China and Jude does a masterful job at outlining all the relevant concerns and draws some alarming conclusions. This interview will give you a unique, long term perspective into what drives President Xi.

Dr. Kent Griffith obtained his PhD in Chemistry at Cambridge University, doing research concerned with fundamental insights into complex energy storage materials. Batteries are part of everything we do, and this will be the first of a four-part series. This is something I have been looking forward to for a while now and in Part One, Kent focuses on battery fundamentals. I thought I knew how batteries work. Kent opened my eyes and provides a strong foundation into his exploration of the future direction of batteries over the next several weeks

In Part 2 of our four-part series, Dr. Kent Griffith focuses on the underlying commodities used in Lithium Ion batteries and the alternatives. He discusses the pros and cons of commodities such as cobalt, manganese, nickel and iron and the relative supply / demand dynamics of each. This is an excellent lead into Part 3 and 4 which will cover where the technology is heading over the next decade and beyond.

Paul chats with JIm Bianco, Founder of Chicago based Bianco Research for a discussion on his unique approach to assessing fixed income markets and the overall health of the US economy. Jim pushes back on the consensus using a series a eclectic methods, predominantly involving search engine data. Jim works on the premise that our search engines don't lie and the result is a truly differentiated research offering.

Paul interview Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research for a wide ranging discussion on Cryptocurrencies and why he has launched a Crypto Business to the future of Independent Research in a world dominated by data and MIFID and of course, the prevailing macro environment

Regular Expert Series contributor, Jacob Kirkegaard returns for his assessment of a vital week in Brexit negotiation. Jacob has reinforced my thinking that the prevailing situation for the UK is migrating from a slow moving train wreck to something more urgent. This interview was conducted the morning of October 17th, the day of the EU leaders meeting in Brussels, the day we were meant to get confirmation of a final deal. This is clearly not the case. Jacob walks through scenarios for the next few months which he believes ends with financial market pressures leading to the UK capitulating, the government of Mrs. May eventually falling and the Conservative Party in tatters. He advocates a Norway style deal, something I disagree with, as the chance of a no deal Brexit are rising exponentially. The outlook for the pound is a dire one, especially with the growing inevitability of an early election and a win for Jeremy Corbyn.

The Expert Series welcomed back Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre for a discussion on US – China trade relations and the implications for Asia. Two things that are particularly interesting, from the Q&A session, include the fact that the Trump administration has inserted a clause into the new USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) which prohibits Canada and Mexico from establishing trade agreements with non-market economies, which is clearly aimed at China. Secondly, Paul and Deborah look at the winners and losers across the region. Those countries that will embrace the opportunities as supply chains look for alternatives away from China such as Vietnam and those countries such as India that look poised to miss out on an extraordinary opportunity.

For a discussion on the outlook for the Australian economy, the Expert Series welcomed back Saul Eslake of Corinna Economic Advisory. Saul has a long career as an economist, covering the Australian economy at ANZ and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, among others. Saul’s presentation covers every base you need to look at to gauge the state of Australia’s economy. Most importantly, Saul gives an in-depth, measured assessment of the housing market, tempering some of the excessively bearish views people have on Australian property.

The Expert Series welcomed back Jacob Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for a discussion on the Italian budget proposal and recent developments in Italy’s coalition government. In the half hour discussion, Jacob reviews the outlook for the Italian budget deficit and the likely response from the EU Commission and the ECB, the rise of the Five Star Movement within the coalition and finally the outlook for an early election.

For a discussion on the developing crisis in the Chinese Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending space, we welcomed back Expert Series regular Martin Chorzempa of the Peterson Institute. In this conversation, Martin outlines a few scary scenarios for the future of the business which has seen total loans fall by about 25% to RMB 900bn in the last 3 months as the industry has come to a standstill. He discusses the current crisis and underlying causes, the inadequate regulatory response and the outlook for industry.

Paul was joined at the Expert Series by Luis Fernandez de Mesa of Pembroke Emerging Markets LLP to discuss Brazil’s upcoming elections. Among others Luis discusses how close the race is between the four candidates, the disruption caused by the stabbing of candidate Bolsonaro, the outlook for the now hospitalized Mr Bolsonaro and for Mr Haddad – the replacement of former president Lula – and if he can garner enough support from his party. Towards the end Luis discusses the outlook for the equity market.

Paul was joined at the Expert Series by Scott Morris of the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C. to discuss the debt dynamics of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The fifth anniversary of the announcement of the BRI sees the program mired in suspicion, exaggeration, and unviability. The discussion, based off the findings of the Center’s work published in March 2018, covers China’s new role as a sovereign creditor, the Chinese financial architecture, debt considerations of countries with Belt and Road funding, the actual scale of BRI, the commercial viability of many projects and some of the political issues surrounding the program. The Q&A section examines in detail issues that China’s absence from the Paris Club creates.

To discuss the latest developments on NAFTA and US - China trade, the Expert Series hosted trade guru Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Most of the discussion focuses on the progress of the US’ trade negotiations with Mexico and Canada. The most interesting part of the discussion is on the outlook for Auto tariffs, which are becoming increasingly likely given the focus on the “rules of origin” procedures between the US and Mexico. Chad inadvertently paints a few really scary scenarios in which the Trump administration would put up blanket tariffs against all US imports, designed to avoid the temptation for car companies to start producing more cars in Mexico and importing them into the US from there.

For an update on the latest developments in the Chinese housing market, Paul welcomed back Robert Ciemniak. Robert is the CEO of Real Estate Foresight, who provide the most granular independent research on China housing markets. They apply advanced data analytics tools and combine data science and technology with on-the-ground research, with a track record in accurately forecasting the Chinese housing markets. Today’s discussion revolves around the three major narratives that can be observed in the housing market today, or as Robert calls it; The Three Games. The first game is the “Whack-a-Mole” policy of smoothing out prices across China, second is the deleveraging effort and the problems that causes for smaller developers and the market, and the third game is the evolving theme of the growing numbers of rental properties and the effect that has on the market.

For a conversation on the prevailing macro environment, Paul hosted his good friend Bob Savage. Bob is the CEO of CC Track, a quantitative service focusing on supporting FX trading. Bob is a highly experienced Macro and FX analyst, having previously worked at Goldman Sachs, Lehman, and BoA as a Macro FX Sales manager and FX prop trader for over two decades. Among others Paul and Bob discuss US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s move to a more discretionary methodology to conduct monetary policy, something which Bob thinks is incredibly significant. Furthermore, they touch on several global risk factors; Bob’s negative view on Emerging markets, potential problems in Europe arising from Brexit and the Italian budget, tightening USD liquidity, and China and renminbi weakness and the deleveraging cycle.

For this edition of the Expert Series, Paul welcomed Isaac Stone Fish for a discussion on Chinese Soft power. Isaac is a journalist and a senior fellow at the Asia Society's Center on US-China Relations in New York; he is also a contributor to CBSN, an international affairs analyst for PRI's The World and a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund. Soft power in a Chinese context was first discussed by former president Hu Jintao, and is concerned with the development of a positive Chinese narrative around the globe. Isaac discusses how and where China uses Soft power to shape its image. Paul and Isaac delve into everything from using lobby groups in the US-China trade dispute to why Xi Jinping is so afraid of Winnie the Pooh.

For a discussion on UK and European sovereign fixed income and credit markets, The VFTP Strategist Series welcomed European interest rate strategist Bert Lourenco. Bert gives a great level of detail and nuance, emphasizing what drives supply and demand in these markets, and thus what drives the shape of the curve. Paul and Bert start the discussion with who are the natural buyers of European fixed income, and how this has influenced the shape of interest rate curves in the UK and the EU. They also discuss Brexit and the pickle in which Mark Carney finds himself, the rise of populism in Italy and how this affects the Eurozone, and they look at life after Mario Draghi and the possible policy changes that will ensue.

For the inaugural edition of the VFTP Strategist Series, Paul welcomed Keith Grindlay, MD at Macro Thoughts, an independent macro research firm in London. Paul and Keith discuss what Keith thinks are the key drivers of asset markets for the years to come, China’s growing influence on the world through Belt and Road, and the increasing impact that Chinese policy has on the global economy, something which Keith thinks is still underestimated by many investors. Next, they discuss Europe at length; the structural issues, how those issues are affected the growth in populism, and how that in turn affects asset prices. They conclude with Keith’s outlook for global asset price.

For a discussion on the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, but from China's perspective, the Expert Series welcomed back Dr Michal Meidan. Michal leads analysis of Asian energy policies and geopolitics at Energy Aspects, with a particular focus on China. Among others, Paul and Michal discuss China’s transition from coal to natural gas, the impact of last years' LNG shortages and what the Chinese government will do to prevent those shortages from happening again, the influence of the trade dispute on LNG prices, and where China gets its LNG from. Furthermore, they also touch on Russia, Europe, and the changes in maritime regulation pertaining to shipping fuel.

For part two of our Expert Series discussion on China’s Social Credit System, with an emphasis on data protection and data privacy, Paul hosted Samm Sacks, senior fellow in the Technology Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Samm's research focuses on innovation, cybersecurity, and emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, with an emphasis on China. Firstly, Samm discusses what data protection and data privacy mean in China. Next, she reviews the regulatory landscape. She then puts China’s data protection system in a global context and discusses how it compares to Europe’s GDPR regulation. Finally, Samm ties these points back into China’s Social Credit System, building on Martin Chorzempa’s discussion in part one.

For a discussion on the latest developments of Brexit, the Expert Series welcomed back Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute. Jacob and Paul discuss three possible Brexit scenario’s, none of which are good for Mrs. May and the Conservative Party. The first is a Norway-style half in / half out arrangement, the second scenario is the muddle through option, and the third is the nuclear option of a hard Brexit.

For this edition of the Expert Series, we hosted James Heneghan, SVP Agriculture at Gro Intelligence. Gro is the go-to source for global agricultural intelligence. Gro’s leading edge software automatically harvests vast amounts of disparate agricultural data, transforms it into knowledge, and generates predictions for volatile markets, and thus insight in the availability and price of agricultural products. James titled today’s discussion “Soybeans on the front line of the US China tariff dispute.” What follows is a wide-ranging discussion, covering the impact of the tariffs on the global soybean pricing and production in the US, but also Brazil and Argentina. Most importantly, we discuss the impact of the tariffs on Chinese consumption, particularly the impact on Chinese pork production, and how that in turn affects inflation.

Paul was joined at the Expert Series by Ambassador Stephen Sestanovich. the George F. Kennan senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. Ambassador Sestanovich discusses the results of, and reactions to, the Trump-Putin Summit and what comes next on the diplomatic front between the US and Russia; how the meeting fits into the broader context of Russian foreign policy, and finally, President Putin’s domestic agenda. With the World Cup and Summit over, Mr. Putin must return his focus to issues at home where he is facing challenges from several fronts. Ambassador Sestanovich avoids the conspiracy theories and delves into the Putin agenda and the outlook for US / Russian relations.

For deep dive into China’s Social Credit System, we will have a two-part discussion with two leading think tank fellows on the subject. For the opening part, we hosted Martin Chorzempa, Research Fellow at the Peterson Institute. Martin is an expert in financial innovation and specializes on developments in China. For part 1, Martin Chorzempa explores what a Social Credit System is, why the Chinese government needs to resort to such a rigorous method, deemed an all-seeing panopticon – a surveillance system that automatically punishes everyone that does not fall into line - by local media, to govern its people, and the challenges and dangers that come with implementing and running the Social Credit System.

Paul was joined at the Expert Series by frequent guest, Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute where his research examines international trade laws and institutions, trade negotiations, and trade disputes. Chad was with us to discuss the recent US trade actions and the ensuing retaliation from the EU, Canada and China. There are very few people in the think tank community who have a better handle on global trade issues than Chad.

Paul was joined on the Expert Series by Pentagon China Analyst and Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, to discuss last week’s historic summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un. Dr. Mastro’s work is focused on analyzing strategic developments in Asia from the perspective of the Chinese and ascertaining what drives their strategy and rationale on critical security issues. In this discussion, Dr. Mastro describes the relationship between China and North Korea and what each party is trying to accomplish bilaterally, and with other powers that have an interest in the region. Regarding the Trump-Kim Summit, she explains how it went exactly the way China hoped it would, and in a way, exactly how they orchestrated it.

The View from the Peak Expert Series hosted regular contributor David Stockton of the Peterson Institute for an update on the state of the US economy. David Stockton is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and is also chief economist at LH Meyer. He was previously senior adviser at Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC. Thorough as ever, David gives us an excellent overview of the current state of the US Economy, and as can be deducted from the title, he is quite positive on the outlook for the US economy.

In what turned out to be a very timely call, the View from the Peak Expert Series hosted Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, for a discussion on the latest developments in the political landscapes of Italy and Spain. Jacob shares a positive outlook for Spain but is very bearish on the prospects of Italy. As Paul put it: “Jacob, we’ve been talking for nearly three years now on developments across Italy and beyond, and I have never heard you sound more bearish…”

The Mexican general elections will be held on July 1st of this year. The Mexican people will elect a new President, 128 members of the Senate, and 500 members of the Lower House, among others. To discuss the most important issues regarding the Mexican Election, the Expert Series welcomed Luis Fernandez de Mesa, Portfolio Manager at Pembroke Emerging Markets LLP, where he focusses on Latin-America, primarily investing in equities. In this Mexican election preview, Luis first gives us a general overview of the presidential elections. He then runs through several possible election scenario’s. Finally, he discusses how to strategically play Mexico.

The Expert Series hosted Michael Nicoletos, Founder and CIO of AppleTree Capital in London. AppleTree specializes in Emerging Market absolute return strategies. Michael focuses on investing in Eastern and Southern European economies. In this discussion, Michael reviews the upcoming elections, fiscal policy and the Central Bank, the Turkish economy and nature of the debt, and the possibility of contagion across Europe and Emerging Markets, among others. This is a situation that anyone investing in Europe and Emerging Markets should keep a close eye on, and Michael does an excellent job of explaining what the important pressure points are right now.

Tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait & the Korean détente The Expert Series welcomed back Bonnie Glaser, Senior Advisor for Asia and Director of the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). Firstly, Bonnie updates us on the situation in the South China Sea, among others what the US’ strategy is regarding the region, and the China's possible next steps. Bonnie then moves on to discuss the changes US-China-Taiwan dynamics, and the PRC’s pressure and tougher line on Taiwan. Finally, Bonnie gives her views on the latest developments on the Korean peninsula.

For a fascinating discussion on the Indian political economy, Paul welcomed Sadanand Dhume, Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Sadanand focuses on South Asia’s political economy, foreign policy, business, and society. He is also a South Asia columnist for the WSJ. Sadanand discusses the politics of economic reform in India, laying out five reasons why he thinks we should not expect a lot of progress on the economic reform program in India over the next year. His perspectives are unique and come from a deep understanding of the structural drivers of Indian politics. Without a doubt, this is the most insightful discussion Paul has had on the Indian political economy.

The Expert Series welcomed Deborah Elms who is the Founder and Executive Director of the Asian Trade Centre. She is also a Senior Fellow in the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry’s Trade Academy. Deborah, yet again, takes the complicated and somewhat dry subject matter that is trade agreements and boils it down to the relevant. This was a brilliant discussion in terms of the breadth of the issues, and the way the Deborah outlines the key points in terms of the benefits to regional participants. Where it comes to the big picture on the future of Asia trade; This is a must listen.

For a discussion on the Chinese financial system, the Expert Series welcomed back Christopher Balding, Associate Professor at the HSBC Business School of the Peking University in Shenzhen. Chris writes regularly on the Chinese financial system, among other subjects, on his excellent blog, 'Balding's World'. We have asked Chris to discuss what is going on, if anything, with the deleveraging process in China.

For a discussion on Chinese Fintech, the Expert Series hosted Paul Schulte, of Schulte Research. Before starting Schulte Research, Paul has had a long career in finance, at the buy-side working for Lehman, Nomura, and CCB, among others, and at a Tiger Cub hedge fund, and he also worked at the White House and in academia. Paul Schulte has done a deep dive in all facets of fintech and has researched how companies are making the transition from the physical world into the digital world, and which country is leading the race; the US tech giants, or their Chinese peers. The answer, as you can see from the title, is that China is a generation ahead, and in our fascinating discussion you will hear why.

Paul hosted regular Expert Series Guest Sheila Smith, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Sheila is an authority on Japanese politics and foreign policy. Sheila succinctly lays out where the North Korean Issues have led Japan and Japanese decision making, and we discuss Prime Minister Abe and his performance since getting re-elected. Please find a replay of the discussion below.

For this edition of the Expert Series, Paul hosted Martin Baily, a Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institute. Martin recently wrote a thoughtful article on the economic agenda of the White House, and what will work and what will not. Our discussion builds on his article, focusing on what the policy is, and what it will do for the US economy and ultimately for the global economy.

Paul hosted Michal Meidan of Energy Aspects, for a discussion on the Implications for Chinese energy markets post the Party Congress and the coronation of Mr. Xi as “Perpetual Emperor of China”. Michal discussed China’s role in global energy markets and the current state of play, the new futures contract for oil in Shanghai, Environmental Policy, and the influence of Electronic Vehicles.

VFTP Expert Series: Stephen Sestanovich – Council on Foreign Relations - Russia: The next six years under Putin

VFTP Expert Series - Samm Sacks - China's Digital Economy, 9 March 2018 by Paul Krake